Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-3785-Il REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN IN AN AMOUNT EQUIVALENT TO US$157.4 MILLION AND A PROPOSED SPECIAL FUND CREDIT OF SDR 134.4 MILLION TO INDIA FOR THE BODHGHAT HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT April 24, 1984 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVAL]ENTS (As of April 20, 1984) US$1.00 = Rs 10.851 Rs 1.00 = US$0.0921 Rs 1 million = US$92,155 The US Dollar/Rupee exchange rate is subject to change. Conversions in the Staff Appraisal Report were, except as otherwise noted, made at the rate of US$1 to Rs 10.0. FISCAL YEAR April 1 - March 31 Abbreviations and Acronyms CEA - Central Electricity Authority CWC - Central Water Commission GOI - Government of Inadia GOMP - Government of Madhya Pradesh ICB - International Competitive Bidding LCB - Local Competitive Bidding LRMC - Long Run Marginal Cost MPEB - Madhya Pradesh Electricity Board NHPC - National Hydroelectric Power Corporation NTPC - National Thermal Power Corporation REB - Regional Electricity Board REC - Rural Electrification Corporation SEB - State Electricity Board FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY INDIA BODEGHAT HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT LOAN. CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: India, acting by its President. Beneficiary: Madhya Pradesh Electricity Board (MPEB). Amount: Bank Loan: US$157.4 million, including capitalized front-end fee. Special Fund Credit: SDR 134.4 million (US$143 million equivalent). Terms: Bank Loan: Repayment over 20 years, including five years' grace, at the applicable variable rate of interest; front-end fee of 0.25% of the base loan amount. Special Fund Credit: Standard IDA terms. Relending Terms: Government of India (GOI) to Government of Madhya Pradesh (GOMP): As part of Central assistance to States for development projects on terms and conditions applicable at the time. Government of Madhya Pradesh to MPEB: Repayment over 25 years, including five years grace, at GOMP's current applicable rate of interest, not less than 7.5% per annum. GOI will bear the exchange and interest rate risks. Proiect Description: The projiect's main objective is to assist in meeting the electricity demand in the State of Madhya Pradesh and in the Western Region of India through the addition of 500 MW of hydro-power capacity and better use of the existing thermal plants. The project comprises the construction of a 500 MW (4 x 125 MW) hydro-power station includ- ing all equipment, civil works and a transmission line to the Western Regional grid. Main works include a 90 m high, 1650 m long combined gravity and rock-fill dam, about 4500 m of tunnels and shafts, a powerhouse, and 5 km of discharge channel. The project also includes a pilot ther- mal plant rehabilitation program designed to provide for more efficient use of MPEB's thermal stations, which would serve as a basis for even- tual development of an India-wide rehabilitation program, and improvement and expansion of MPEB's This document has a restricted distiribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. - ii.- data processing unit and services. There are no risks other than those normally associated with this kind of project. All physical components to be constructed are well within the boundaries of known teclnology. The Central Electricity Authority and the Central Water Commission will provide assistance as necessary to MPEB in design, supervision and management of the works. Estimated Cost: 11 (us$ millions) Item Local Foreign Total Land and Relocation 22.0 - 22.0 Dam 136.4 51.2 187.5 Water Conductor System 58.4 14.6 73.0 Power Station 107.0 72.9 179.8 Switchyard and Transmission 5.9 0.8 6.8 Thermal Plant Rehabilitation 17.5 17.5 35.0 Training and Consulting Services 1.5 1.5 3.0 Miscellaneous 16.5 - _16.5 Base Cost 365.1 158.5 523.6 Physical Contingencies 43.8 14.1 57.9 Price Contingencies 101.1 40.2 141.4 Total Project Cost 510.0 212.8 722.8 Front-end Fee on Bank Loan - 0.4 0.4 Interest during Construction Bank - 41.4 41.4 Other 172.9 - 172.9 Total Financing required 682.9 254.6 937.5 Total project cost net of taxes and duties amounts to US$637.6 million. 1/ Includes taxes and duties of US$85.2 million. Financing Plan: (US$ millions) Local Foreign Total IBRD Loan 28.3 129.1 157.4 Special Fund Credit 72.6 70.4 143.0 GOI/Cofinanciers 395.0 55.1 450.1 MPEB 187.0 - 187.0 Total 682.9 254.6 937.5 Estimated Disbursements: (US$ millions) IBRD/IDA FY FY85 FY86 FY87 FY88 FY89 FY90 FY91 FY92 Annual 24.4 1/ 39.0 57.0 63.0 69.0 24.0 15.0 9.0 Cumulative 24.4 63.4 120.4 183.4 252.4 276.4 291.4 300.4 Rate of Return: About 11%. ARpraisal Report: No. 4909-IN, dated April 16, 1984. 1/ Including payment of front-end fee of about US$0.4 million. INTERNATIONAL BAKW FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT AND INTERNATIO]AL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN AND SPECIAL FUND CREDIT TO INDIA FOR THE BODHGHAT HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed loan of US$157.4 million and a Special Fund credit of SDR 134.4 million (US$143 million equivalent) to India on standard terms to help finance the construction of a hydroelectric power station on the Indravati river in the State of Madhya Pradesh, a pilot rehabilitatiou program for thermal power plants in the State, and related management improvements. The project is designed primarily to provide an additional 500 megawatts of electricity generating capacity, as well as to improve the efficiency oL existing thermal plant within the State. The Government of India (GOI) will channel the proceeds of the loan and credit to the Government of Madhya Pradesh (GOMP) in accordance with GOI's standard terms and 8rrangements for financing State development projects. GOMP will in turn onlend these funds to the Madhya Pradesh Electricity Board (MPEB) as part of its lending contribution to MPEB's investment program. GOMP's lending terms to NPEB provide for repayment over 25 years, including five years' grace, at an interest rate of not less than 7.5% per annum. Additional financing for the project, in an amount equivalent to about US$85 million, may possibly be provided from export credits, suppliers' credits, or commercial bank loans to cover the foreign exchange cost of the turbogenerator sets and associated equipment. The exchange and interest rate risks will be borne by the Government of India. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. An economic report, "Econoulic Situation of India and Resource Mobilization Issues" (4395-IN,, dated April 11, 1983), was distributed to the Executive Directors on April L9, 1983. Country data sheets are attached as Annex I. Background 3. India is a large and diverse country with a population of about 700 mil- lion (in mid-1982) and an annual per capita income of US$250. The economy is dominated by agriculture which empLoys more than two-thirds of the labor force. However, the land base is not sufficient to provide an adequate livelihood to everyone engaged in agricultural activities, especially those with little or no land. Growth of value-added in agriculture -- 2.2% since 1950/51 -- has been slower than growth of industrial value-added (5.0% per annum). As a result, there has been a gradual decline in the share of agriculture in GDP (at factor cost) from 60% to just under 40%, while the share of industry rose from 15% to around 25%. But industrialization has not been rapid enough to absorb the growing labor force, or to bring about a rapid economic transformation, with significantly higher productivity and income levels. As a result economic growth has been slow over the past three decades, averaging about 3.6% per annum since 1950/51. 1/ Parts I and II of the relport are substantially the same as Parts I and II of the President's Report for the Periyar Vaigai Irrigation II Project (No.P-3768-IN), dated April 10, 1984. -2- 4. Nevertheless, there has been steady progress with per capita income rising by about 1.4% per year in the period 1950 to 1980. Despite the large population base and its relatively rapid growth, India has been able to eliminate persistent dependence on foodgrain imports through significant improvements in agricultural production. Savings and investment have increased markedly since 1950/51: gross national savings more than doubled from 10.8% of GDP (at factor cost) to 22.8% in 1982/83, while gross domestic investment rose from 12.5% of GDP to 24.9% in 1982/83. Foreign savings (balance of payments deficit on current account) have never financed a major portion of domestic investment: a peak of about 20% was reached during the early 1960s. Surpluses arose for a few years in the late 1970s, and at the present time, foreign savings are about 8% of investment. External assistance has been low both as a percentage of GDP and in per capita terms, never rising above 3% of GDP and averaging below 1% for the past five years. Net foreign savings have never risen above 3% of GDP, and presently stands at 2.1X. 5. Before the 1970s, India placed relatively less emphasis on export promotion and more on import substitution. The volume growth of exports between 1950/51 and 1969/70 averaged only 2.2% per annum, while the volume growth of imports over the same period was 4.3%. In the early to mid-1970s, however, India's terms of trade, which had remained roughly constant during the 1960s, deteriorated sharply. In response, the Government introduced various policy measures designed to stimulate exports. As a result, the volume of lndia's exports grew on average about 7.3% per annum for the 19708 as a whole, a performance which demonstrates that sustained rapid growth is possible. While expanding world markets, particularly in the nearby Middle East, con- tributed to this growth, liberalized access to imported inputs and more effec- tive export incentives played a major role. 6. Moving into the second half of the 1970s, the Indian economy was buoyed by higher levels of investment and an expanding level of foodgrain output. As a result, growth in real GDP and in agricultural and industrial value-added, substantially exceeded the historical 30-year trends (paragraph 3) averaging 4.9%, 3.9% and 5.6%, respectively. In 1979/80, however, this momentum was broken when the worst drought in recent years, combined with a doubling of international oil prices and domestic supply shortages, led to a sharp fall in foodgrain production, a decline in GDP, and the opening up of a large trade deficit. Severe inflationary pressures also emerged after several years of virtual price stability. These setbacks in 1979/80 coincided with the prepara- tion of the Sixth Five-Year Plan which laid down a program of adjustment that aimed at improving the trade deficit, removing infrastructural bottlenecks and ensurihg price stability with an overall growth of the economy of 5.2%, 1.6 per- centage points above the trend growth of 3.6%. Recent Trends 7. In 1980/81 and 1981/82, the economy substiantially recovered with real GDP growing by 7.9% and 5.2%, respectively. While' industrial output expanded by 4% in 1980/81 and 8.6% in 1981/82, recovery wais particularly robust in agriculture where normal weather helped output to rise by more than 15% and 5.5%, respectively. The availability of power, coal, and rail transport, already improved in 1980/81, was even better in 1981/82, recording growth rates of about 10%, 9.6% and 12.9%, respectively. The easing of constraints on the supply of infrastructure and basic commodities WaS a determining factor in the improved performance of the industrial sector. This overall improvement in the Indian economy, combined with a more restrictive monetary policy contributed to -3- a sharp decline in the rate of inflation. Wholesale prices rose by about 9% on an average annual basis in 1981/82 and by only 2.5% in 1982/83, reflecting a strong deceleration from a peak increase of 18% in 1980/81. 8. After two years of fairly solid performance, the Indian economy faced a difficult year in 1982/83 due to the drought in mid-1982 which brought down the GDP growth rate to around 2% and put further strains on the already dif- ficult balance of payments and domestic resource situation. Besides a sig- nificant decline in the range of 4.52-6.5% in agricultural production, GDP growth was also constrained by a slowdown in industrial growth from 8.6% in 1981/82 to about 4% in 1982/83. This resulted from a combination of several factors, notably the decline in agriculture income, persistent (though lessened) pover shortages, a textile strike in Bombay, as well as depressed export markets and increased competition from imports. The Government was able, however, to protect the level of savings to a large extent and keep the momentum of the investment program through largely successful public sector resource mobilization efforts. Foreign savings played a crucial role in sup- port of this effort. Similarly, the timely implementation of various economic policies mitigated the otherwise very distressing effects of a poor monsoon. Continued improvements of the infrastructure sectors, although at a slower pace than in the previous two years, also reduced the negative effects of the drought. 9. Agricultural production in 1982/83 received a serious setback from the drought. Foodgrain production, which had reached a record 133 million tons in 1981/82, declined to 124-127 millioni tons. Production of most other major crops also declined in 1982/83. Corrected for weather variations, this still represents a creditable performance. In 1979/80, with a broadly comparable monsoon, foodgrain production reached only 109 million tons. The Government was able to mitigate the effects of the 1982 drought through efficient manage- ment of foodgrain procurement and distribution, careful timing of foodgrain imports, and appropriate allocation of power to irrigation pumps. These policies helped to avoid disruptions in basic food supplies and contributed to price stability during the year. While the management of the foodgrain economy after the drought was a significant achievement, the effect of the drought on production re-emphasizecd the continued importance of the monsoon in India's agriculture. The performance of the recent past and probable future trends suggest that on average foodgrain supplies will meet demand. The balance remains delicate, and the need for foodgrain imports to maintain con- sumer supplies or adequate buffer istocks could arise from time to time. Thus, programs to expand irrigation., struengthen extension and encourage the efficient use of other agricultural inputs continue to receive high priority. 10. Basic infrastructure services performed generally well in 1982/83, although growth of coal, power and rail transport failed to maintain the mOmen- tum of the marked recovery of 1981/82. Despite lower hydro generation due to the failure of the monsoon, overall power generation recorded an increase of about 7%. This was due largely to an increase in capacity utilization in thermal plants resulting from improved overall management, stabilization of most of the new large units and better availability of coal due to the combina- tion of increased coal production and improved railway performance. Nevertheless, power shortages remain the major bottleneck in the economy. Railway traffic grew by only 3.7% in 1982/83 reflecting a slowdown from 1981/82. The lower growth was due not to a decline in the operational efficiency of the railways but rather to slack demand from core sectors like steel, iron ore, coal washeries and fertilizers. Coal production growth (4% in 1982/83), after 10% growth in the two preceding years was creditable. There -4- were no major shortages and there were improvements in the quality of coal. Recent easing of shortages and bottlenecks in infirastructure has come primarily from better utilization of existing capacity, but in the future most improve- ment must result from added capacity. It is therefore critically important that India maintain the pace of investment in these key sectors and mobilize sufficient resources to do so. 11. The Indian economy has reverted from a situation of resource surplus, which had been a temporary phenomenon of the late 1970s, to one of resource scarcity. Investment has again grown quicker than national savings, and the scope for further increases in the latter appears limited. India's gross national savings rate, which averaged 22.4% of GDP in the last three years, is high by any standard, particularly considering India's low income and the large proportion of its population living below the povierty line. Future increases in savings will depend heavily upon the enhanced lprofitability of public sector enterprises whicb would require better utilizationa of capacity, more efficient operations and adequate pricing policies. In 1981/82 there was a significant increase in public savings due to improved profitability of various public sector enterprises. This trend which was maintainied in 1982/83 needs to be accelerated. The gap between gross investment and national savings which rose from 0.4% of GDP in 1979/80 to 1.8%, 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively in the first three years of the 1980s, has been financed by foreign savings. 12. India's ability to generate resources to meet its development objec- tives has become increasingly linked to the balance of payments. The current account balance which recorded surpluses between 1976/77 and 1978/79, sharply deteriorated to deficits of nearly US$2.9 billion in 1980/81 and US$3.8 billion in 1981/82 (1.8% and 2.3% of GDP, respectively). This was partly due to a sharp rise in the oil import bill as a result of both the disruption of oil production in northeast India in 1980 and significant oil price increases, and to a more liberal import policy aimed at providing producers with access to inputs for higher capacity utilization, greater efficiency, improved technology and capacity expansion. The current account deficit in 1982/83 declined to US$3.3 billion or 2.1% of GDP. The improvement wolild have been greater had not the drought resulted in the need to rebuild food stocks through imports and at the same time led to a lower level of GDP growth. This improvement in the balance of payments is to a significant degree the result of India's develop- ment and adjustment efforts over the past three years. It also reflects a reduction in the trade deficit as compared to the levels reached in 1980/81 and 1981/82. The trade deficit declined from US$7.6 billion in 1980/81 to US$6.0 billion in 1982/83 due to continued export volume growth (following the sub- stantial resumption in 1981/82) despite poor world market conditions, coupled with the containment in import growth dlue to import substitution of petroleum products, metals and fertilizers while allowing substantial growth in "other" imports through more liberal import policies. Nevertheless, it is expected that the balance of payments will be under strain for the next several years, for India's adjustment program will continue to require high levels of imports. 13. The high investment rate, about 25% of GDP, envisaged in the Sixth Plan coupled with the limited possibilities of raising domestic savings beyond the present high levels, necessarily implies a need for external resources. Faced with a reduction in the availability of bilateral and multilateral concessional assistance, India has begun to borrow significant amounts on commercial terms from the Euro-dollar market in addition to much greater utilization of suppliers' and export credits. India's favorable debt service profile has enabled India to tap commercial capital markets at favorable spreads (over relatively high underlying rates). In the period 1980-82 India contracted -5- commercial loans totalling over US$2,000 million and suppliers' credits of about US$520 million. The bulk of the loans are linked to specific development projects in the public sector while the credits are-linked, by and large, to development projects in the private sector. India also reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund for the use of the Extended Fund Facility for SDR 5 billion, of which SDR 2.5 billion have already been drawn. The transfer of funds under the ]EFF has stemmed the use of foreign exchange reser- ves which had fallen to less than four months of import coverage in 1981/82. In 1982/83, in addition to continued use of the EFF, financing requirements were met by increased non-concessional borrowing (about US$2,000 million in new committments) and a 10% increase in net aid disbursement. Development Prospects 14. The experience of recent years illustrates that India has the capacity to grow and develop at a more rapid pace. Although the industrial sector is small compared to the size of the economy, it nevertheless is large in absolute terms and has a highly diversified structure, capable of manufacturing a wide variety of consumer and capital goods. Basic infrastructure -- irrigation, railways, telecommunications, power, roads and ports -- is extensive compared to many countries, although there is considerable need for additional capacity as well as improvement in the utilization of existing capacity. India is also well-endowed with human resources and with institutional infrastructure for development. Finally, India has an extensive natural resource base in terms of land, water, and minerals.(primarily coal and ferrous ores, but also gas and oil). With good economic policies and reasonable access to foreign savings, India has the capability for managing these considerable resources to accelerate its long-term growth. 15. The medium-term framework for advancing India's development objectives is the Sixth Five-Year Plan (1980/81-1984/85), which is now in its fourth year. The Plan assigns priority to agriculture, energy development, the growth of exports and domestic import substitutes where appropriate, and the removal of infrastructural bottlenecks. Overall performance has so far been encouraging, although bottlenecks in key sectors such as power and transport are likely to persist. Moreover, fulfillment of the Plan targets will require additional resource mobilization. The efforts of the Central Government to raise resour- ces have so far been impressive and are likely to be broadly sufficient to meet the financing requirements of the Central Government's share in plan investment, even if some increase in inflation is experienced above current low levels. However, a shortfall in public savings is likely to occur in some States unless further measures are introduced. There will be a need also for continuous efforts to maintain the current level of private savings. Recent increases in interest rates and tax concessions on time deposits and the con- tinued dampening of inflationary expectations should stimulate such savings. 16. The higher capital formation rates of the past few years augur well for future income growth. However, returns to investment have so far been relatively low. Much of this phenomenon relates to India's stage of development, in which a large and growing proportion of investment has been needed to build up basic infrastructure. These services, such as power, tran- sport and irrigation, have inherently high capital-output ratios. However, there is scope to improve the sectoral capital-output ratios through greater efficiency and better management. Bottlenecks in basic infrastructural sectors clearly can prejudice growth in other sectors where large investments have been made. As demonstrated in the last three years, performance in the basic serv- ice sectors can be improved through better planning and management, thus lead- -6- ing to higher productivity and capacity utilization throughout the economy. At the same time, programs to expand domestic capacity are vital. In the case of tradeable commodities like coal, steel and cement, this is justified on the grounds of comparative advantage. For sectors such as irrigation, power and transportation, expansion of planned capacity in accordance with the require- ments of the t-st of the -economy will be vital to overall medium- and long-term development prospects. In the short tierm, however, achieving an adequate balance between supply and demand in these sectors will remain a difficult objective. 17. Under the Sixth Plan, India has an ambitiouis oil production program backed by substantial financial commitment. While the gap between domestic consumption of petroleum and production remains large, the prospects for progressive substitution of domestic petroleum for imports are quite bright. In 1981, and again in early 1983, resources for exploration and development were raised by successive price increases for domesitic crude and products. India's dependence on oil imports dropped from 63% in 1979/80 to about 45% now and a scheduled expansion in production is expected to decrease oil imports (in crude equivalent terms) to about 33% of consumption by 1984/85. The rapidly expanding level of exploration activity, combined with the possibilities for accelerated offtake from known fields, offers much encouragement for India's longer-term energy prospects. 18. Despite aa expected continued decline in its current account deficits from the current 2-.1% to about 1.7% of GDP by the late 1980s, India will require growing access to world financial markets to complement concessional assistance. These commercial sources of funds will be important in the future since India's current account deficits, though not large relative to the size of the economy, will nevertheless be large in absolmte terms and will neces- sitate external borrowing beyond levels expected to be available from normal concessional sources. Given the favorable structurie of India's external debt, which reflects the past reliance on concessional sources, India should remain creditworthy for a substantial growth in external borrowing. 19. India's development prospects ovrer the next few years will hinge on the extent to which the economy can be brought into both internal and external balance, while at the same time achievinig more rapid growth than in the past. In the longer term, income growth represents the best strategy for achievibtg these needed adjustments, both by generating higher savings for furtber investment, and by fostering the development of export and import-substituting industry to improve the balance of payments. In the! short term, a relatively large external borrowing, including an increased emphasis on commercial borrowing, will be necessary to cope with the balance of payments consequences of such a growth strategy. However, an important element in providing India with the capacity to adjust flexibly will be adequate flows of concessional assistance. Although India is currently in a position to increase borrowing on commercial terms from the very low levels of the past, there are, of course, limits beyond which India will choose to sacrifice growth objectives rather than accept debt on unfavorable or unmanageable terms. The Government's effort to maintain an adequate rate of growth while adjusting the structure of the Indian economy to a more open and efficient environment requires foreign resources in addition to the level of commercial borrowing available to India. India is still a very poor country with a large rural sector and enormous investment requirements for human development and basic infrastructure. The fact that India has been able over the past seven years to maintain a rate of growth above the long term trend, despite the poor monsoons of 1979/80 and 1982/83, lends substance to the hope that a more open trade policy and con- -7- certed efforts to remove constraints on the growth of productive capacity, supported by adequate mobilization of savings both foreign and domestic, can sustain a rate of growth closer to 5.0% per annum than the long-run trend of 3.6% per annum. Combined with a reduction in the rate of population increase to below 2.0% per annum, a 5.0% growth rate would mean a doubling of the trend rate of growth of per capita income of less than 1.4% per annum. Success in these efforts would make a signiificant difference to the prospects of easing poverty in India. 20. A large and growing population and severe poverty underline the need to accelerate India's development efforts. The 1981 Census placed India's popula- tion at 683.8 million, or about 12 million higher than official projections. The fact that there was no decline in inter-census rates of population growth, equivalent to about 2.2% per annum, is a cause for concern. While further analysis of the Census may suggest this rate of growth to be slightly overestimated, the expectation of a measurable decline in the population growth rate has not materialized. Until the results of the Census are fully analyzed, firm judgements about the reaisons for this outcome are not possible. However, the results re-emphasize the need for continuing efforts to strengthen the health and family planning program in a broad range of activities and services. These efforts are given high priority in the Sixth Plan, which aims at a rise in the proportion of protected couples in the reproductive age group from its estimated 1979/80 level of about 23% to over 35% by 1984/85. 21. Reduction of poverty remains the central goal of Indian economic growth. More than one-third of the world's poor live in India, and more than 80% of the Indian poor belong to the rural households of landless laborers and small farmers. About 51% of the rural population and 40% of the urban popula- tion subsist below the poverty line. Improvements in the living standards of the poor will depend to a large extent on the overall growth of the economy, particularly on increases in agricultural production and employment, and in non-farm rural employment. These developments will have to stem in large part from market forces which can. be encouraged and reinforced by appropriate Government policies and the strengthening of basic services and infrastructure., The declining trend in real foodgrain prices between 1970 and 1981, resulting from India's sustained effort to raise agricultural production, reflects such developments. There is also a role for direct Government action in faster implementation of land reform (though the scope for significant reduction in poverty through land redistribution is quite limited in India), in increasing the supply of credit available to small farmers and rural artisans, and finally in broadening the provision of those services which enhance the human capital of the poor and improve living standards. Many of the latter are elements of the Minimum Needs Program, which has been an integral part of Indian planning for the past decade. Progress has been slow but steady in the expansion of primary education, the extension of rural health facilities and the provision of secure village water supplies. Operations such as the community health volunteer program and the rational adult literacy campaign provide encouraging evidence that well-targetted, relatively low-cost programs can lead to enhanced prospects for India's poor. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN INDIA 22. Since 1949, the Bank Group has made 76 loans and 160 development credits to India totalling US$5,183 million and US$11,851 million (both net of cancellation), respectively. Of these amounts, US$1,387 million has been repaid, and US$6,224 million was still undisbursed as of September 30, 1983. Bank Group disbursements to India in the current fiscal year through -8- September 30, 1983 totalled US$286 million, representing a decrease of about 2 percent over the same period last year. Annex II contains a summary state- ment of disbursements as of September 30, 1983. 23. Since 1959, IFC has made 29 commitments in India totalling US$224 million, of which US$30 million has been repaid, US$56 million sold and US$18 million cancelled. Of the balance of VS$120 million, US$113 million represents loans and US$8 million equity. A summary statement of IFC disbursements as of September 30, 1983, is also included in Annex II (page 4). 24. The thrust of Bank Group assistance to India has been consistent with the country's development objectives in its support of agriculture, energy and infrastructure. Of particular importance have been investments in irrigation, extension and on-farm development designed to increase agricultural productivity, and efforts to improve the availability of basic agricultural inputs to farmers through credit, fertilizer, marketing, storage, and seed projects. Major elements of the lending program have also been directed at helping to meet the energy needs of the economy while curbing the growth of oil imports, and to ease the infrastructure bottlenecks which have hampered economic grovth in India, particularly through poweer generation and distribution, and railways and teleconEmunications projects. The Bank Group has also provided financing for a broad raEnge of meditm- and small-scale industrial enterprises, primarily in the private sector, through its support of develop- ment finance institutions. Recognizing the importance of improving the ability to satisfy the essential needs of urban and rural populations, the Bank Group has supported nutrition and family planning programs, a rural roads project, as well as water supply and sewerage and other urban infrastructure projects. 25. This pattern of assistance r,emains highly relevant, and consonant with Government priorities, as reflected in the Sixth Plan. The continued active involvement of the Bank Group in agriculture, energy and infrastructure development will appropriately contribute to India's adjustment and growth prospects. Irrigation will need continuing supporit, with emphasis on improved efficiency in water conveyance systems to ensure reliable delivery to farmers' fields. In addition, major investments to develop the large Narmada River basin will be vital to India's efforts to increase agricultural production. Important complements to these efforts, such as fertilizer production and distribution, agricultural credit and extension, will continue to receive support. A continued program of investments aimed at rapidly increasing the domestic supply of energy will clearly be necessary if India is to curb the cost of oil imports and alleviate the critical power shortages which constrain output in both the agricultural and industrial sectors. Exploitation of oil and gas resources is a central element of this program, which should be supple- mented by investments in hydro and thennal power generation, and in the expan- sion of the transmission and distribution networks. Industrial projects to increase the domestic production of basic commodities, which have been in short supply and which India has a comparative advantage in producing, should also receive high priority. Finally, raising the efficiency and levels of transpor- tation infrastructure would mitigate a key constraint to achieving higher levels of economic growth so that further support of the railways and for ports development will be particularly appropriate. 26. The need for a substantial net transfer of external resources in support of the development of India's economy has been a recurrent theme of Bank economic reports and of the discussions within the India Consortium. Thanks in part to the response of the aid community, India successfully adjusted to the changed world price situation of the mid-1970s. However, there -9- is now a need for increased foreign assistance to India, not only to help the economy adjust to the more recent oil price increases and the overall deterioration in the world trade environment but also to maintain the rela- tively higher growth rates achieved during the first two years of the Sixth Plan. As in the past, Bank Group assistance for projects in India should aim to include the financing of local expenditures. India imports relatively few capital goods because of the capacity and competitiveness of the domestic capital goods industry. Consequently, the foreign exchange component tends to be small in most projects. This is particularly the case in such high-priority sectors as agriculture, irrigation, and water supply. 27. India's poverty and needs are such that whenever possible, external capital requirements should be provided on concessionary terms. Accordingly, the bulk of the Bank Group assistance to India has been, and should continue to be, provided from IDA. However, the amount of IDA funds that can reasonably be allocated to India remains small ina relation to India's needs for external support. This requirement for additional assistance can be met, in part, through Bank lending. Given its development prospects and policies, India is judged credit-worthy for Bank lending to supplement IDA assistance. A con- tinuation of efforts already underway to achieve growth in productive capacity, trade expansion, higher levels of savings, foodgrains self-sufficiency and a reduction in the rate of population growth should result in continued economic growth and improvement in the balance of payments. Despite recent setbacks, India's external payments position is still manageable. The ratio of India's debt service to the level of exports was about 11% in 1982/83 and is projected to remain below 20% through L995/96. As of September 30, 1983, outstanding loans to India held by the Bank totalled US$3,932 million, of which US$2,100 million remain to be disbursed, leaving a net amount outstanding of US$1,832 million. 28. Of the external assistance received by India, the proportion con- tributed by the Bank Group has grown significantly. In 1969/70, the Bank Group accounted for 34% of total commitments, 13% of gross disbursements, and 12% of net disbursements as compared with 50%, 43% and 53%, respectively, in 1981/82. On March 31, 1982, India's outstainding and disbursed external public debt was about US$17.9 billion, of which the Bank Group's share was US$7.1 billion or 38% (IDA's US$5.9 billion and IBILD's US$1.2 billion). In 1981/82, about 16.0% of India's total debt service payments were to the Bank Group. -10- PART III - THE POWER SECTOR Background 29. India's economic growth depends to a large degree on the development of the power sector. Since alternative sources of energy are not readily available in the amounts needed, shortage of power has an irmediate impact on virtually all activities of the economy. The development of the sector is therefore receiving high priority in Central and State Government investment planning, and the power sector now accounts for the largest share of India's public investment program (20% of the Sixth Five-Year Plan outlay). Power Supply and Demand - India-Wide 30. In the 1950s and 1960s, Indiia's power generation kept pace with its demand for power, with both installed capacity and power generation growing at an average annual rate of about 11%. Since 1970, supply has fallen short of demand primarily because of delays in commissioning new power projects, operating and maintenance problems, and severe budget constraints which have limited investment in the sector. The situation has been aggravated by unstable coal supplies caused by disruptions in coal mining and transport, and the declining quality of available coal. However, growth in power generation has been progressively stepped up: during the first half of the 1970s, it averaged only 5% annually; in the seconLd half of the decade, considerable improvement was made, with growth in both generation and capacity averaging about 8% annually. The situation has further improved in 1980/81 and 1981/82, with an annual growth of about 8% in power generation exceeding a 6.5% annual growth rate in installed capacity, indicating better utilization of existing resources. Nevertheless, power shortages persist in many parts of the country, particularly in the Eastern Region. Total installed generating capacity as of March 1983 was about 38,100 MW (including non-utility plant), of which about 63% was conventional thermal, 35% hydro, and 2% nuclear. 31. Industrial power consumption accounts for about 60% of all electricity sold, while agriculture (mainly irrigation) accounts for 18%, domestic use 12%, and other uses 10%. As a result: of accelerated agricultural development, power consumption in the rural areas, where more than 80% of India's population lives, has shown marked growth in recent years. The number of villages which have been electrified, for example, increased from just over 3,000 in 1950/51 to an estimated 300,000 (representing about 52% of all the villages in India) by the end of 1982. India's Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has projected in its long-term national power plan that over the period from 1982/83 to 1994/95, generating capacity will grow at an average annual rate of about 9.5% to a level of about 106,000 MW, of which about 59,000 MW (56%) would be thermal, 44,000 MW (41%) hydro and 3,500 MW (3%) nuclear. About 15,ODO MW of the additional generating capacity is expected to be added by 1984/85. Power Supply and Demand - Western Region 32. The Western Region, in which the proposed project is located, comprises the States of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Midhya Pradesh. The major supply authorities of the Western Region are the St:ate Electricity Boards (SEBs) of these States, the Tata Electric Companies, the Ahmedabad Electric -11- Company and the Surat Electric Company. In addition, a number of small municipalities are also engaged in power supply. The Western Region Electricity Board is constructing at Bombay a Regional Load Dispatch Center, which will eventually integrate the operation of generating facilities throughout the Region. The total installed capacity in the Region as of March 1983 was about 10,045 MW, of wbich about 78% is thermal. Projects already committed would increase installed capacity in 1988/89 by 9,121 MW, of which about 8,010 (88%) is thermal. Further new projects identified for study total about 12,200 MW,, of which about 6,300 MW (52%) is thermal. 33. Load growth in the Western Region in the decade 1971-1981 averaged 7.4% per year, slightly higlaer than the national rate of 6.4% per year over the same period. CEA's load forecast in the long-term power plan projects load growth rates of betweea 9.7% and 11.3% per year (depending upon two scenarios of industrial growth) for the period 1980/81 - 1984/85, gradually decreasing to a level of between 7.4% and 8.3% for the period 1989/90 - 1994/95. The relatively high rates in the early years aim at satisfying suppressed demand. Peak demand in the Region is forecast (in the "high" scenario) to grow from about 7,500 MW in 1982/83 to 19,500 MW in 1994/95, representing an average anuual rate of increase of 8.75%. Depending upon assumptions about forced outage rates and a feasible rate of development of hydro power, between 19,000 MW and 25,000 MW of additional generating capacity will need to be installed in the Region by 1995. Bank Group Operations in the Power Sector 34. Since 19545 the Bank Group has made 15 loans to India for power projects amounting to US$1,389.65 million and 16 credits totalling US$2,266.0 million. Of these amounts, US$2,465.4 million is for generating plant; US$23.0 million for construction equipment for the Beas Hydroelectric Project; US$630.7 million for the provision of high-voltage transmission; and US$536.5 million for the support of rural electrification schemes. Sixteen projects have been completed: ten for generating plant, the Beas Project, four for power transmission, and the First Rural Electrification Project. The First Singrauli (Credit 685-IN of April 1977), Third Trombay (Loan 1549-IN of June 1978), anid Second Rural Electrification (Credit 911-IN of June 1979) Projects are scheduled to be completed this year. The First, Korba (Credit 793-IN of May 1978) and First Ramagundam (Credit 874-IN and Loan 1648-IN of February 1979) Thermal Power Projects are in an advanced stage of implementation. The loan for the Third Rural Electrification Project (Loan 2165-IN) was approved in June 1982. The loan for the Central Power Transmission Project (Loan 2283-IN), and the loan and credit for the Upper Indravati Hydro Project (Loan 2278-IN and Credit 1356-IN), were approved in May 1983. The Singrauli, Korba and Second and Third Rural Electrification projects are on schedule. The first five units of the Singrauli project and the first two units of the Korba project were commissioned on schedule. The Farakka and Ramagundam projects are proceeding satisfactorily, the first unit at Ramagundam having been commissioned four months ahead of schedule. The Third Trombay Project was synchronized in January 1984, about a year behind schedule. 35. A project performance audit was conducted in 1980 for the Second Power Transmission Project (Credit 242-IN). The project was considered to have been successful in assisting the nine beneficiary SEBs in extending their transmission systems to help meet their growing power requirements. Utilization of generating capacity in these SEBs exceeded the appraisal forecast. Upgrading the financial management practices of the SEBs, which -12- commenced under this project, is continuing uncler subsequent projects. The audit highlighted the difficulties of adequately supervising this project, which consisted of many widely-scattered sub-projects, and of eff ~cting institutional improvements in the absence of a close working rele-ionship between the Bank Group and the beneficiary SEBs. With the assumption of increased responsibilities by the CEA, which have resulted in greater involvement in SEB operations and project preparation, a considerably more effective relationship with the SEBs is envisaged. Sector Institutions 36. Under the Indian Constitution, the responsibility for supplying power is shared between the Central Government and the State Governments, and full agreement between the Center and the States is required for the implementation of most actions. Various agencies have been established at the State, Regional and national level to promot:e the development of an integrated power system within the country. The principal agencies are: the State Electricity Boards, the Regional Electricity Boards (REBs), the Central Electricity Authority, the two Central power corporations--the National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) and the Nationsl Hydro-Electric Power Corporation (NHPC)--and the Rural Electrification Corporation (REC). 37. The SEBs were constituted by the State Governments under the provisions of the Electricity (Supply) Act, 1948, to promote the coordinated development of generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in the most efficient and economical manner, and to control and regulate private licensees and utilities. The States effectively own or control over 90% of electricity supply facilities. While the SEBs are corporate entities and enjoy some autonomy in the management of their day-to-day operations, they are under the control of State Governments in such matters as capital investment, tariffs, borrowings, pay scales and personnel policies. 38. The REBs were established for the Northern, Southern, Eastern, Western and North-Eastern Regions to coordinate t:he integrated operation of the Regional pover systems and to improve collaboration among the SEBs. The REBs, which function mainly in an advisory role, coordinate the operation of the Regional system to the maximum benefit of the Region as a whole. They also coordinate overhaul and maintenance programs, determine generation schedules and power availability for inter-State transfer, and determine tariffs for the transfer of power within the Region. 39. The CEA was constituted in 1950 with responsibility for developing national power policy and coordinating the activities of the various agencies involved in electricity supply. It is responsible for the formulation and coordination of plans for power development, optimization of investments in the power sector for the whole country, development of interconnected system operation, training of personnel, and research and development. It accumulates data on operational, economic, financial and accounting aspects of the power industry, both at Center and State levels. It also provides consulting support to SEBs on technical matters associated with power projects, and advises them on financial matters. 40. The NTPC and NHPC were incorporated in 1975 by GOI to construct, own and operate large Central power stations, as well as high-voltage power transmission lines and associated substations. Although the Central Government is becoming increasingly important in the sector, the SEBs will continue to play a major role, particularly in hydro-electric projects. The -13- States own most hydro sites and are unlikely to turn over these sources of comparatively inexpensive energy to the Center. NHPC can develop hydro sites only when the water rights are undisputed and the State has surrendered its claim to them. 41. The REC was constituted in 1969 and registered under the Companies Act, 1956, as a limited company wrholly owned by the Government of India. Its primary objective is to promote rural electrification schemes prepared by SEBs throughout India by functioning as a financial intermediary with technical expertise, and ensuring the efficient onlending of funds drawn primarily from GOI. REC coordinates its lending operations with the activities of other agencies which provide financing for rural development. Although the amount of REC financial support is small in relation to total SEB operations, REC today finances more than half of total rural electrification investment. Bank Group Strategy in the Power Sector 42. The objectives of ithe Bank Group's assistance strategy in the sector derive from the continuing dialogue it has with the Government over the policies and programs required to deal with the complex problems confronting the Indian electricity supply industry. They are aimed at supporting the efforts of the Indian authorities: (a) to eliminate power shortages by the installation of generating and transmission capacity, and the promotion of measures to improve the operation and maintenance of existing plant; (b) to introduce long-range system planning on a nationwide basis to assure implementation of a least--cost power development program; (c) to assist in institution-building by promoting improvements in sector organization and training; and (d) to strengthen the financial management of the institutions in the sector, particularly the SEBs. 43. In line with these objectives, the Bank Group has emphasized the need for the Government to pursue a program of improvements in five high priority areas. These are: (a) the performance of thermal power plants; (b) coordination of power development with the development of other sectors; (c) hydro-electric power development; (d) the role of the Central sector in power generation and transmission; and (e) the financial objectives and policies for SEBs. In line with the recommendations of GOI's Committee on Power, established in 1978 to review all aspects of the power sector, GOI prepared in 1982 a comprehensive program for the implementation of power sector improvements as emaphasized by the Bank. 44. Satisfactory progress has been made in each of the five areas, as the following examples illustrate. To improve operational efficiency in thermal plants, teams of specialists, including representatives from CEA, SEBs and manufacturers, have been established by the Department of Power to visit all power plants with 100/120 MW and 200/210 MW thermal generating units in the country to diagnose technical and operational problems, propose solutions and assign responsibilities for their implementation. In late 1982, CEA completed its national long-term power development plan, responding to the Bank's emphasis on the need for a nationwide long-range plan for power development in India. The plan forecasts growth in power demand and corresponding capacity expansion and equipment requirements to meet this demand through the year 2000, according to different scenarios based upon India's rate of economic growth. The plan also provides a least-cost generation expansion program for each of the five electricity supply regions and will provide the basis for the preparation of both five-year plans and -14- annual investment programs for the power sector. The first Bank Group supported hydro-electric project in India (Upper Indravati) was approved in 1983, the proposed project is the second, and a number of other projects are in advanced stages of preparation. GOI, through NTPC,-now has under construction and partly in operation about 10,000 MW of power generating capacity, wLich includes, as well as the four large thermal plants at Singrauli, Korba, Ramagundam and Farakka being financed by the Bank Group, two large thermal plants (Rihand and Vindhyacha.l) begun by NTPC in 1982. The first Central Power Transmission Project, approved in 1983, is designed to reinforce the Centrally-owned power transmission grid, and provide the first stage of integration of the Northern, Western and Southern Regional grids. NTPC has decentralized its operations on a regional basis to provide more local and effective monitoring, conitrol and operation of its power generation and transmission facilities. Finally, legislation for amendment of the financial provisions of the Electricity (Supply) Act, 1948 was recently enacted by GOI; a uniform system of commercial accounting for the SEBs is under development; and new financial performance criteria for the SEBs have been introduced. 45. Despite many difficulties, the improvements made by the Indian authorities so far have been encouraging. The establishment of the REBs, NTPC and NHPC, and NTPC's subsequent decentralization, have been important steps towards an improved organizational structure of the power sector. The reorganization of CEA and the enlargiement of its powers also contributed to this improvement. Amendments to the financial provisions of the Electricity (Supply) Act 1948 enable the SEBs to operate along commercial lines; the financial performance of SEBs has improved; and the majority of SEBs have completed tariff studies based on marginal cost pricing principles. PART IV - THE PROJECT 46. The project was prepared by CEA, the Central Water Commission (CWC) and MPEB and appraised by a mission which visited India in October 1983. A Staff Appraisal Report is being distributed separately to the Executive Directors. Negotiations were held in Washington in April 1984. GOI and MPEB were represented by a delegation with Mr. D, Chatterjee of the Department of Economic Affairs as coordinator. A Supplementary Project Data Sheet is attached as Annex III. Proiect Description 47. The primary objective of the project is to assist the Government of India expand the country's power supply at least cost by optimizing the development of India's remaining unused hydro-power potential. The project, located in the Bastar district in the State of Madhya Pradesh, is designed to increase the power generating capacity in the Western Region, and in the State of Madhya Pradesh in particular, through the construction of a 500 MW hydro-electric station at Bodhghat, on the Indravati river. The project, which is the least cost alternative for the expansion of the Western Regional system, would help reduce the peaking capacity shortages in the Region, which have led to widespread load-shedding, overloading of existing plants, increased operating costs, and reduced thermal planit maintenance. A further objective is to increase the efficiency of MPEB's existing thermal plant by assisting in the formulation and implementation of a pilot thermal plant rehabilitation program. This pilot program is intended to be replicated in -15- other SEBs in the future, and provide a basis for the formulation of a nationwide thermal rehabilitation program. In addition to addressing electricity supply and plant utilization problems, the project also provides for the expansion and modernization of MPEB's data processing services to cope with the Board's growing management needs. Though not a Bank-financed component of the project, a study of electricity metering practices in selected SEBs will be carried out by GOI to provide a basis for the formulation of a rational metering policy. 48. The project comprises the following components: (a) a hydro-electric power station of 500 MW installed capacity, including a powerhouse housing four 125 MW turbo-generating sets and associated electrical and mechanical equipment; a combined gravity rock-fill dam, 90 m high and 1,650 m long; a water conductor system composed of a 3,000 m headrace tunnel, surge tank, and four pressure shafts; a tailrace channel 5 km in length; transformers (111220 kV), switchyard equipment, and about 5 km of 220 kV double-circuit transmission line to connect the plant, through the nearby Barsoor substation, to the Western Region grid; (b) a thermal power plant rehabilitation program, including the purchase and installeation of elements for the repair and upgrading of selected thermal units in the State of Madhya Pradesh, as well as improved operational and maintenance practices; (c) expansion and modernization of MPEB's data processing unit, including the development of computer software and the acquisition of necessary computing equipment; and (d) consulting, engineering, training, and administrative services. 49. The output from the power station will be transmitted over two 220 kV transmission lines to the 400 kV Barsoor substation where it will enter the Western Region grid. Load flow analyses prepared by CEA indicate that the existing transmission line link:ing Barsoor with a major connecting substation for the Western Region at Bilhai will need to be reinforced when the project is commissioned. Such reinforcement is not part of the project. MPEB will construct, by the completion date of the project, the required transmission lines to evacuate the power generated by the Bodhghat plant (Section 3.08 of Project Agreement). In this connection, detailed engineering for the necessary transmission works will be completed by June 30, 1986, and the works will be completed by 1990, before commissioning of the Bodhghat plant. Proiect Implementation 50. The project will be implemented over seven and one half years, from early 1984, by the Madhya Pradesh Electricity Board. MPEB has ample experience in general civil construction and equipment erection gained through the construction of several major thermal power stations, with capacities totalling about 2000 MW. MPEB will also be responsible for the operation and maintenance of the project. The first unit is expected to be commissioned in October 1989 and the last in June 1990. Engineering and consulting services will be provided to MPEB by CEA (electro-mechanical and civil engineering) and CWC (civil engineering). Both organizations have had -16- extensive experience in similar projects and have been responsible for the engineering of most of the hydro-power and irrigation schemes in India over the past several decades. CEA and CWC are preparing final designs for construction, tender documents and specifications. and will provide general technical assistance during project implementation. A Dam Review Panel, consisting of independent experts, was established by MPEB in July 1983 to oversee the design and construction aspects of the project. The proposed project layout and design were approved by the Panel in August 1983 and further endorsed by a panel of independent consultants retained by the Bank for the technical review of the project. The engineering for the plant has been completed to a level sufficient for bid invitation, and detailed construction drawings are under preparation. Bids for major civil works will be invited by late May 1984. 51. MPEB has established a project executing unit, under the control of the Chief Engineer, to be responsible for the construction, management and supervision of the works. The proposed organization and staffing of the unit have been reviewed by the Bank and found acceptable. Assistance will be provided to the unit by consultants in dam and tuiinel construction and contract management as needed (Section 2.02 of Project Agreement). Approximately 200 man-months of consulting services will be required for this purpose. Further assistance to the unit in general construction management, procurement, and stores management will be provided by MPEB. 52. The thermal plant rehabilitation component will be implemented by MPEB with the assistance of consultants who will be recruited by MPEB (Section 2.02 of Project- Agreement) and retained before December 31, 1984. Approximately 100 man-months of consulting services will be required for this purpose. MPEB's thermal plant availability ranges from about 49% to 94%, depending upon unit size, unit age, fuel type, etc. It is expected that under the rehabilitation program, improvements in. power availability of the order of about 8% can be obtained, at relatively low cost. MPEB staff have already prepared a preliminary unit-wise diagnosis of the needs for the rehabilitation of the State's thermal plants. MPEB will also prepare, by March 31, 1985, a report of a review of its operations and maintenance practices, identifying areas for improvement and proposing the scope of further consultant review. The rehabilitation component will be carried out in three stages: (i) review by the consultants of MPEB's assessment of its rehabilitation needs, including the proposed physical works, their priorities, economic justification, and costs; (ii) preparation, with the assistance of the consultants, of a detailed implementation plan, including item quantities, specifications and tender documents, purchase schedule, manpower estimates, monitoring system, and plant shut-down plan; and (iii) execution of the proposed works, aEnd training of operations and maintenance staff. 53. The upgrading and expansion of MPEB's data processing facility will also be carried out with the assistance of qualified consultants acceptable to the Bank (Section 2.02 of Project Agreement). These consultants will be retained by December 31, 1984. About 100 man-months of consulting services will be required for this purpose. The consultants will assist MPEB in defining the scope and priority of proposed new computer applications or the expansion of existing ones; formulating a plan to implement the recommendations, including the selection of appropriate computing software and hardware; establishing a training program for MPEB staff; and implementing the expanded data-processing system. A study of electricity metering practices, which is designed to provide the basis for the -17- formulation of a rational metering policy, will be carried out for selected SEBs under the responsibility of the Ministry of Energy (Section 4.02 of Loan Agreement). This study will not be financed from Bank Group funds. Terms of reference for a proposed metering study were provided previously to GOI by the Bank and these have been taken into account in defining the scope of the GOI study, which is expected to be completed by May 1986. Water Rights and Land Acguisitiort 54. The Indravati river, on which the project is located, is an inter-State river flowing from Orissa intro Madhya Pradesh, and, further downstream, forming the boundary between Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. The joint utilization of the Indravati is regulated by agreements reached among the States at the Godavari Water Disputes Tribunal. According to the agreement, Orissa will ensure at its border 45 billion cubic feet of water in the Indravati and its tributaries at 75% dependability. The inter-State agreements have been taken into account in the planning and design of the project, and there are no outstanding inter-State water rights issues. 55. The total land area required for the project is about 13,250 hectares (ha) of which about 4,650 ha (35%) is private property, 5,480 ha (41%) is State-owned forest land, and the balance (24%) is owned by the GOI's Department of Revenue. About 2,300 families, of which about 75% are tribals, are expected to be displaced during the 6-7 year construction and reservoir filling period. Resettlement of the displaced families will be carried out in accordance with regulations of GOI's Department of the Environment (DOE), which are consistent with Bank Group guidelines on the subject. MPEB has prepared a resettlement program setting priorities for the transfer of the affected population consistent with the construction schedule. A Rehabilitation Committee, under the chairmanship of the Commissioner, Bastar Division, has been established to supervise the implementation of the resettlement plan and to recommend additional measures as necessary. MPEB has selected four adjoining tribal areas where State land is available to compensate the affected population. Adequate funding provision has been made in the project estimates for the acquisition of private land and properties,. and for the provision of Government land as compensation where applicable, and no problems are expected in this regard. Adequate funds have also been allocated for the construLction of housing and related infrastructure and facilities to relocate the displaced population. MPEB will provide to the Bank, commencing with the quarter ending December 31, 1984, quarterly reports on the progress of the resettlement program. MPEB will also provide, by June 30, 1985, a plan for the establishment of a proposed Tribal Training Center at Barsoor or Gidam, which will provide training for tribals affected by land submergence. Environmental Aspects 56. The project has been cleared by GOI's Department of the Environment (DOE). Studies carried out by the Madhya Pradesh Forest Department indicate that the project area contains no flora or fauna, or any rare species, that would suffer from the construction of the project. DOE has specified a number of measures to be taken by the project authorities to promote preservation of wild life, minimize soil erosion, and prevent health problems. GOMP has prepared an environmental protection program on the basis of DOE's proposed measures, and adequate funding provisions have been made in the project estimates to carry it out. The program includes provision for the compensatory afforestation of around 5,000 ha in the vicinity of the -l 8- project, and the promotion of fish farming in the reservoir. Since a number of the actions envisaged in the program need further planning, a schedule for the submission of the necessary detailed plans has been agreed with HPEB. MPEB will provide to the Bank, by June 30, 198_5, a detailed plan for the establishment of a wild-life buffer zone around the reservoir shoreline, and, by June 30, 1985, details of a proposed fisheries and water management program, and a proposed tree planting scheme. Project Costs and Financing 57. The total cost of the project, including contingencies but excluding about US$85 million in taxes and duties, is estimated at about US$638 million equivalent, of which about US$213 million (33%) represents the estimated foreign exchange costs. Interest during construction adds about US$214 million to the financing required. A capitalized front-end fee on the proposed Bank loan adds approximately a further US$0.4 million (US$392,519). The principal cost components, net of physical and price contingencies, but including taxes and duties, are: dam, US$188 mi llion; power station, US$180 million; water conductor system, US$73 million; thermal plant rehabilitation, US$35 million; land and relocation, US$22 million; transformers, switchyard and transmission equipument and miscellaneous equipment, US$23 million; training and consulting services, US$3 million. The project cost estimates are based on December 1983 prices for similar equipment and works. Price contingencies, amounting to about 32% of base cost, are based on expected inflation rates of 7% for 1983/84 and 1984/85, 8% for 1985/86 and 1.986/87, and 6% thereafter for local costs, and 7.5% for 1983/84, 7% for 1984/85, and 6% therieafter for foreign costs. Physical contingencies of about 15% on civil works and 5% on electrical and mechanical equipment have been allowed, amounting to about 13% of base cost. The cost of consulting services has been estimated on the basis of 130 man-months at US$11,500 per man-month for foreign consultants, and 294 man-months at US$3,500 equivalent per man-month for local consultants, including fees, travel, and subsistence expenses. 58. The proposed Bank loan of US$157.4 million and Special Fund credit of SDR 134.4 million (US$143 million equivalent) would finance 78% of the total foreign exchange costs of about US$255 million and about US$101 million of the local costs, and would cover about 47% of the total project cost net of taxes and duties. The balance of the funds required, aggregating about US$637 million equivalent (including about US$55 million in foreign exchange) will be provided from GOI's own resources (US$450 million) and MPEB's internally generated funds (US$187 million). However, GOI will seek to finance about US$85 million equivalent, representing the foreign component of the turbogenerator sets and associated equipment, through export credits, suppliers' credits, or commercial bank borrowing, in the event that the contract for the turbogenerator sets is won by a foreign supplier. If such a cofinancing arrangement is concluded, the Bank would seek to reallocate loan and credit proceeds not required for this purpose to other components of the project as appropriate. The proceeds of the proposed loan and credit will be made available by GOI to GOMP through its allocation to State funds as part of its normal assistance to the States for development projects. GOMP, in turn, will make these funds available to MPEB as part of its lending contribution to MPEB's investment program, in accordance with its standard terms for such lending. GOMP's contribution, including the Bank Group funds, will be made available to MPEB for a period of 25 years, including five years' grace, at GOMP's currently applicable rate of interest, not less than 7.5% per annum (Section 2.01(b) of Project Agreement). GOMP's onlending rate -19- will be adjusted annually, and we would expect that such adjustments would be sufficient to maintain an interest rate which is positive in real terms. The average inflation rate over the next five years is expected to be about 7% per annum. The exchange and interest rate risks will be borne by the Government of India. Procurement and Disbursement 59. Procurement arrangements are summarized in the following table: (US$ Millions) Procurement Method Total Project Element ICB LCB Other NA 1I Cost A. Civil Works: dam, water conductor sys- 316.1 316.1 tem, tail-race channel (171.7) (171.7) other civil works 31.2 31.2 (8.7) (8.7) B. Equipment: turbogenerator sets 88.1 88.1 and auxiliary equipment (88.1) (88.1) transformers 8.4 8.4 (8.4) (8.4) other equipment 3.5 33.6 37.1 (3.5) (--) (3.5) transport, insurance, 33.3 33.3 erection (4.6) (4.6) C. Training, consulting, and upgrading of data 3.8 3.8 processing unit (2.0) (2.0) D. Land, relocation 27.8 27.8 E. Engineering and 60.4 60.4 administration (--) (--) F. Thermal plant 9.0 11.0 11.4 31.4 rehabilitation (9.0) (--) (4.0) (13.0) 425.1 75.8 48.5 88.2 637.6 (280.7) (8.7) (10.6) (--) (300.0) 1/ Not subject to commercial procurement. Note: (1) Figures in parentheses indicate amounts financed by the Bank Group. (2) Amounts are net of taxes and duties. 60. Three separate major civil works contracts will be arded after international competitive bidding (ICB) for the dam (US$237 million), the water conductor system (US$48 million), and the tail-race channel (US$31 million). The remaining civil works contracts (US$31 million), -20- covering the powerhouse, access roads, site buildings, staff quarters and site utilities, will be awarded on the basis of local competitive bidding (LCB) under procedures acceptable to the Bank. Pre-qualification of potential bidders will be required foDr the major civil works contracts. Major local firms are expected to be competitive for the civil works. The civil works for the dam will be financed from the Special Fund. The turbogenerator sets and auxiliary equipment (US$88 million), main transformers (US$8 million), and steel plates for penstocks and gates (US$3 million), will be subject to ICB, whereas mriscellaneous equipment (US$45 million) will be procured under LCB procedures acceptable to the Bank. Foreign suppliers would not be precluded from participating in LCB. Local manufacturers are expected to be competitive for all of the equipment contracts. Most of the items necessary for the thermal rehabilitation program (boilers, turbine rotors, pumps, etc.) are expected to be subject to ICB; some may have to be procured through limited international tendering, in cases where there are few manufacturers or where quantities involved are small, or through direct purchase, in the case of proprietary items. MPEB will provide to the Bank for prior review details of the items to be procured through limited international tendering or direct purchase. Local contractors and manufacturers, competing under ICB, will be allowed a margin of preference of 7.5% of the bid price for civil iworks, and a margin of 15% of the c.i.f. bid price of imported goods, or the actual customs duties and import taxes, whichever is less, for the supply of goods. Consultants for technical assistance and training will be selected in accordance with Bank guidelines. All civil works contracts costing US$3,000,000 or more, and all equipment contracts costing US$800,000 or more, will be subject to the Bank's prior review. These contracts will cover about 75% of the total value of the items to be procured. Other contracts will be subject to selective post-award review. 61. The proceeds of the loan and credit will be disbursed over an eight- year period (FY85-FY92), and will cover 100% of the c.i.f. cost of imported goods or of the ex-factory cost of goods manufactured in India, 602 of the cost of civil works, 50% of local expenditures for other locally-procured items, and 100% of the cost of technical advisory services by consultants. By the end of the sixth year, about 92% of the proceeds of the loan and credit will have been disbursed. The Madhya Pradesh Electricity Board 62. MPEB was constituted in 1950 under the Electricity (Supply) Act, 1948, and is responsible for the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity throughout the State. It constructs and operates thermal generating stations, hydro-electric stations, and transmission and distribution networks to supply ultimate consumers and licensees with electric power. MPEB is not fully autonomous in executing these responsibilities since it is controlled by the State Government in matters of staffing, accounting, borrowing and tariff--setting. MPEB's capital investment program is determined within the overall State and national planning framework. 63. MPEB is a corporate body consisting of six members including a full-time Chairman and three full-time members for Generation, Transmission and Distribution, and Finance. The other two members of the Board are part-time and comprise GOMP's Finance Secretary and Energy Secretary. Transmission and distribution responsibilities, including commercial activities, are carried out by four regional Chief Engineers, who supervise -21- about nineteen 'Circles' each headed by a Superintending Engineer. MPEB executes a considerable part. of its development program with its departmental organization. It also owns and runs two workshops for fabrication of towers for high-tension lines up to 400 kV, and structures for sub-stations. 64. At the end of 1982/83, MPEB had about 63,000 regular employees and about 30,000 daily workers. About 18,000 of the regular employees and almost all of the daily workers are engaged in construction activities. About 44,000 of the regular staff are employed in operations and maintenance activities. All sanctioned positions in MPEB at the top and middle management levels are filled, and vacancies at lower levels account for less than 8% of sanctioned posts. Staff training for engineers and chemists is carried out at MPEB's Central Training Institute at Jabalpur. Thermal power plant operators are trained under supervision at the Korba and Amarkantak plants. There are also two training centers for linemen. MPEB personnel also attend training courses on the managerial and engineering aspects of its activities, at institutions in India and abroad. 65. MPEB agreed to introduce, under the Third Rural Electrification Project, a system of commercial accounting which was to be prescribed by GOI for all SEBs. Preparation of a unified accounting system for the SEBs is underway in GOI, although delays of about six months have been incurred on the part of the consultant retained by GOI to develop the new system. GOI plans to introduce the new accounting system from April 1985, and has submitted a schedule of actions necessary for its effective implementation. Local consultants will be hired by MPEB to prepare existing accounts for the new system and provide the necessary guidance and training during the initial stages of system implementation. MPEB will introduce the new accounting system into its organization from April 1, 1985 (Section 3.04 of Project Agreement). Details of the proposed system of accounts to be used for project accounting purposes -- including manuals, regulations, and formats -- will be provided to the Bank Group by MPEB by October 31, 1984. In addition, MPEB will provide to the Bank Group certified copies of its annual financial statements, details of the project accounts, and the relevant audit reports of these accounts (Section 3.03 of Project Agreement). 66. MPEB's existing computer system is used for billing, inventory control for transmission and distribution equipment, revenue returns, staff records, and payroll for the Jabalpur District (2,200 employees). The expansion of existing and the introduction of new computer applications, considered essential to MPEB's proper management and operation, are not possible due to the limited capabilities of the existing data processing facilities. Improvements to the computer facilities and services are being undertaken as part of the proposed project. Computing services will be extended to cover new areas such as system operation (plant dispatch, load management, interruption analysis, demand and consumption analysis), managerial accounting, budgetary control, project management and cost control. In addition, existing services will be extended to cover billing for all consumers and inventory control for all power generation stores. 67. An aspect of utility management that has given cause for concern in MPEB in recent years is the control of energy losses (transmission and distribution), which have been reported to account for about 22% of energy supplied, the highest level in India. MPEB attributes the high losses mainly to a low load density, restrictions on power supply, and the extension of the low-tension distribution system. MPEB and GOI have undertaken to provide by May 31, 1984, and subsequently implement, a program of specific and -22- quantified measures designed to gradually reduce ?PEB's system losses to 18% by 1989/90; this plan will address both technical and non-technical losses, and include proposals to reduce each loss category, with specific annual targets to be achieved (Section 3.05 of Project-Agreement). MPEB Finances 68. The financial operations of SEBs are regulated by the Electricity (Supply) Act of 1948, as amended from time to time. Recently, following discussions with the Bank Group, GOI proposed new amendments to the Act, aimed at removing the remaining legal anomalies which prevent the SEBs from operating along commercial lines. These amendments have now been enacted by Parliament, and will come into effect from April 1, 1985. This timing is acceptable, since it coincides with the planned introduction of the uniform commercial accounting system in the SEBs (para. 65). 69. Under the Third Rural Electrification Project, the Bank Group reacbed agreement with GOI concerning a number of measures to be taken to improve the financial performance of the SEBs. Such improvenent was to be measured in terms of the SEBs each achieving annually not less than a 20% contribution to their average annual investment. In view of the considerable growth in its investment program (from US$300 million in 1982/83 to US$640 million in 1987/88), MPEB has experienced difficulty in achfieving this target. In order for MPEB to achieve the targetted 20% net cash generation in 1984/85 and subsequent years, MPEB's average revenue would haive to be sizably increased by about 20% for 1984/85 and by between 2% and 7% per year for 1985/86 through 1991/92. While recognizing that tariff increases are needed and are justified from an economic point of view, GOMP considers that an increase of this magnitude in 1984/85 is unattainable for social and administrative reasons, and that a progressive attainment of the target would be more appropriate. The Bank Group consideris MPEB's position to be a reasonable one, and has agreed to accept a gradual realization by MPEB of the cash generation target on the basis of attainment of levels of cash generation of 8% in 1985186, 17% in 1986/87, and the covenanted 20% in 1987/88 (Section 3.07 of Project Agreement). The tariff increases required to achieve these levels of cash generation have been estimated to be of the order of 16% at the beginning of 1985/86, 9% for 1986/87, and 7% for 1987/88. GOI and GOMP will prepare by May 31, 1984, a revised financing plan for MPEB's investment program for the period 1984/85-1991/92, based upon these intermediate targets and reflecting the necessary tariff increases that would be required to achieve them. 70. Presently, security deposits collected annually by MPEB from its consumers are included in the determination of internal cash generation. At the end of 1982/83, these accumulated deposits amounted to about three-quarters of the average monthly sales during the fiscal year. GOI and MPEB have proposed, and the Bank Group has agreed, that the level of security deposit be increased. Accordingly, MFEB will gradually raise the level of consumers' security deposits to reach the equivalent of two months' average sales by 1989/90, on the basis of an acceptable program (Section 3.06 of Project Agreement). 71. MPEB has about 2,145,000 consumers, of which about 434,000 (20%) are industrial and commercial consumers, 1,311,000 (61%) domestic, 373,000 irrigation pumps and 27,000 miscellaneous consumers. In 1982/83 about 95% of MPEB consumers were billed regularly, and about 72% of the revenue was from high-tension consumption (950 consumers with individual demands of 5 MW and -23- above). About 94% of the revenues from all categories of consumers are collected during the billing year and accounts receivable during the last 3 years have been less than the equivalent of 3 months billing, an acceptable level of arrears in India. 72. SEBs obtain most of the iunds for their investment by borrowing from the State Governments. This practice has resulted in a debt-oriented capital structure with almost no equity. Currently 67% of MPEB's outstanding long-term debt is in the form of loans from GOMP, resulting in a debt/equity ratio of about 98/2. Although the States are permitted to convert their loans to SEBs into equity or to make equity contributions to SEBs' investments, the States have not taken any steps in this direction. GOI is aware of the seriousness of the situation. GOI and the Bank Group will continue discussions on the subject in the course of their ongoing dialogue on power sector matters with a view to determining an acceptable arrangement in this regard. 73. MPEB's financial requirements for the period 1984/85 through 1991/92 (the project construction period) are estimated at Rs 50,876 million (US$5,088 million). About 81% (Rs 40,184 million) of this amount will have to be borrowed by MPEB froum GOMP or other institutional sources. Such funds will be made available to 1PEB in respect of capital expenditures sanctioned by GOI under the Sixth and Seventh Five-Year Plans. Assuming that tariff increases necessary to attain the required contribution to investment are progressively introduced as proposed, MPEB will be able to realize, over the period 1984/85 through 1991/92 a net cash generation of about 17% of its overall financial requirements. Project Justification and ELisks 74. The proposed project is justified as part of the least-cost expansion program for the Western Region system. Compared to the only practical alternative--the construction of a pithead thermal station in the Mand-Raigarh area--the proposed program has the lowest present-value cost at any discount rate within a reasonable range. Moreover, the proposed installed capacity (500 MW) at Bodhghat represents the optimum plant size: site considerations preclude a 'Larger plant, and the alternative option of smaller (300 MW, 400 MW) plants result in significant increases in overall systems costs within the same discount rate range. The economic rate of return for the program, using average retail tariffs and quantifiable consumers' surplus as benefit proxies for consumers' willingness to pay for continuous power supply--the minimum quantifiable estimate-- is about 11%. However, the actual rate of return would be considerably higher if additional expected benefits--such as derived producers' surpluses for industrial, agricultural, and commercial consumers, made possible by the alleviation of power shortages--are taken into account. Moreover the construction of the project would not only alleviate peak shortages in the Western Region but would also permit a more balanced operation of the thermal system, with considerable savings in operation and maintenance costs. 75. There are no extraordinary technical risks in the project since the works to be constructed are well within the bounds of known engineering technology. Reservoir water tightness and bank stability have been confirmed by independent consultants appointed by the Bank. Sediment load studies show that the 700 million cubic meters of dead storage would be sufficient for around 100 years, or twice the economic life of the project, which is considered satisfactory. Risks associated with inadequate construction -24- supervision or contract management have been kept to within acceptable limits through the provision of appropriate consultant assistance to MPEB, as needed. The risk of insufficient funds for the project is low, considering that MPEB's annual contribution will represent less than 5% of its annual investments in 1983, and is expected to remain at about that level during project implementation. Consequently, the project is not expected to pose an unduly heavy burden on MPEB's finances. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 76. The draft Loan Agreement between India and the Bank, the draft Special Fund Credit Agreement between India and the Association as Administrator of the Special Fund, the draft Project Agreement between the Bank, the Association as Administrator of the Special Fund and the State of Madhya Pradesh, and the Report of the Committee provided for in Article III, Section 4(iii) of the Articles of Agreement of the Bank, are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 77. Special conditions of the project are listed in Section III of Annex III. 78. I am satisfied that the proposed loan wolild comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Bank and the Special Fund credit would comply with Resolution IDA 82-6 of the Executive Directors of the Association establishing the Special Fund. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 79. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed loan and Special Fund credit. A. W. Clausen President April 24, 1984 ANNEX I Page 1 of 5 INDIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET INDIA REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVERAGES) /i MOST (MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) /b bRECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCHIE 1960--! 1970 ESTIMATE- ASIA & PACIFIC ASIA 6 PACIFIC AREA (THOUSAND SQ. KM) TOTAL 3287.6 3287.6 3287.6 AGRICULTURAL 1760.7 1780.5 1811.3 GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 70.0 100.0 260.0 276.7 1028.6 ENERGY CONSUMFTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAMS OF COAL FQUIVALENT) 114.0 165.0 210.0 398.4 792.8 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION,MID-YEAR (THOUSANDS) 434850.0 547569.0 690183.0 URBAN POPULATION (7 OF TOTAL) 18.0 19.8 23.7 21.5 32.9 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILL) 1001.3 STATIONARY POPULATION (MILL) 1838.3 YEAR STATIONARY POP. REACHED 2140 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. EM. 132.3 166.6 205.3 161.7 260.7 PER SQ. EF. AGRI. LAND 247.0 307.5 372.7 363.1 1696.5 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (%) 0-14 YRS 40.9 42.7 39.7 36.6 39.4 15-64 YRS 54.5 54.2 57.2 59.2 57.2 65 AND ABOVE 4.6 3.1 3.0 4.2 3.3 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (X) TOTAL 1.8 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.3 URBAN 2.5 3.3 3.7 4.0 3.9 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUS) 43.7 40.0 35.4 29.3 31.3 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUS) 21.8 16.7 13.3 10.9 9.6 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.0 2.0 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUS) 64.0 3782.0 6826.0 USERS (X OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. 12.0 23.0 48.1 46.6 FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PROD. PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 98.0 102.0 107.0 111.4 125.2 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (X OF REOUIREMENTS) 96.0 90.0 87.0 98.1 114.2 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 54.0 50.0 47.0 56.7 57.9 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 17.0 15.0 13.0/c 13.9 14.1 CHILD (AGES 1-4) DEATH RATE 26.2 20.7 17.0 12.2 7.6 HEALTH LIFE EXPECT. AT BIRTH (YEARS) 43.2 48.1 52.2 59.6 60.2 INFANT MORT. RATE (PER THOUS) 165.0 139.0 121.2 96.6 68.1 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (%POP) TOTAL . . 17.0 33.0/d 32.9 37.1 URBAN .. 60.0 83.071 70.8 54.8 RURAL . . 6.0 20.07d 22.2 26.4 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (X OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 18.0 20.0/e 18.1 41.4 URBAN .. 85.0 87.o/e 72.7 47.5 RURAL . 1.0 2.071 4.7 33.4 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 4850.0 4890.0 3640.0/f 3506.0 7771.9 POP. PER NURSING PERSON 10980.0/_ 8300.0 5380.071 4797.9 2462.6 ,. POP. PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 2180.0 1650.0 1310.0/d 1100.6 1047.2 URBAN . .. 370.071 298.4 651.1 RURAL . . 10410.07d 5941.6 2591.9 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. .. .. . 27.0 HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL 5.2 5.6 5.2/e . URBAN 5.2 5.6 4.87'e RURAL 5.2 5.6 5.37T . AVERAGE NO. OF PERSONS/ROOM TOTAL 2.6 2.8 . URBAN 2.6 2.8 RURAL 2.6 2.8 ACCESS TO ELECT. (% OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. ..
Группа Всемирного банка · Memorandum & Recommendation of the President
India - Bodhghat (Indira Sarovar) Hydroelectric Project
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