Jordan - A Multi-mode Transport Project

D _meu of The World Bank FOR OMCIL USE ONLY LAJ.2SLI63S TO Rip.t N.. P-3851-JO REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF TEE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOREM TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LDAN IN AN AmouNr EQuiVAIENT To Us_3O0 mnLION TO THE{ HASHE(rrE KINGDOM OF JORDAN FOR A 4,LTI-MODE TRANSPORT PROJECT June 7, 1984 Thi decum h a reusicud dubut. an may be ud by _ie gmly in the pefmae of their ecial dutie It P--PImu no .dwl.e be diand wihis Wee Bmn .'Izatim  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Calendar 1983 March 1984 Currency Unit Jordan Dinar JD US $1.00 JD 0.363 0.369 JD 11.000 US$2.74 $2.71 Exchange rate used in the Appraisal Report JD1=$2.74 Fiscal Year = Calendar Year ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS MOF = Ministry of Finance mOI = Ministry of Interior IOT = Ministry of Transportation MIPW Ministry of Public Works NPC = National Planning Council ARC = Aqaba Railway Corporation TPC = The Ports Corporation JPMC = Jordan Phosphate Mining Company ICB = International Competitive Bidding LIT = Limiited International Tendering Ro-Ro = Roll on/roll off NIS = National Transport Study  FOR OFFICLAL USE ONLY JORDAN MULTI-MODE TRANSPORT PROJECT Loan and Project Summary Borrower; The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan Beneficiaries; Ministry of Public Works (MPW) and Aqaba Railway Corporatiou (ARC) Amount; $30 million equivalent Terms; Fifteen years, including a three-year grace period, at the standard variable interest rate. Relending Terms; $20.0 million of the proceeds of the loan will be relent to ARC on the same terms as the proposed loan. ARC will bear the foreign exchange risk. Project Description; The proposed project would relieve transport bottlenecks and congestion on Jordan's :nternational trade routes. It would thus facilitate the movement of key commodities such as phosphate, potash, fertilizer and cement, as well as general cargo. The project would also contribute to institutional development in the transport sector, already initiated under the earlier Back-financed transport project. The highway component includes: (i) improvements to routine and periodic road maintenance programs; (ii) acquisition of traffic and pavement-testing equipment; and (iii) construction of a 30-km alignment on the Aqaba-Amman road and a 6-km spur from this road to the port. The railway component includes: Ci) extension of the Aqaba workshop; (ii) renewal of about 101 km of track; (iii) acquisition of track machinery, 90 phosphate wagons, and a breakdown crane; and (iv) rehabilitation of four locomotives. In addition, the project includes technical assistance and training for highways, railways, and the port. The project would benefiL a wide range of transport users and international trade. It would also support Jordan's energy and environmental conservation efforts. The project faces no special risk. I This document has a rstricted distibution and may be used by recipients only in the performance | jof their official duties Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authonzation-  Estimated Cost;* Local Fore--g Total _( Million) Highway Component Maintenance and maintenance equipment 15.7 13.0 28.7 Civil works 11.2 16.9 28.1 Railway Component Aqaba workshop extension 4.2 Z.6 6.8 Track renewal 9.2 17.2 26.4 Wagons - 8.6 8.6 Equipment 2.6 2.6 Locomotive rehabilitation - 1.5 1.5 Technical Assistance & Training (Highway, Railway and Port) 1.7 3.1 4.8 Base Cost 42.0 65.5 107.5 Physical contingencies 4.1 5.2 9.3 Price contingencies 6.4 9.6 16.0 Total Cost 52.5 890.3 132.8 Financing Plan; Covernment of Jordan/TPC 52.5 22.6 75.1 Proposed IBRD Loan - 30.0 30.0 Saudi Fund for Development - 11.4 11.4 Islamic Development Bank - 9.3 9.3 Suppliers'/Export Credits _ 7.0 7.0 Total Financing 52.5 80.3 132.8 Estimated Disbursements: Bank FY 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 ($ Million) Annual 1.6 7.3 13.7 4.3 2.7 0.4 Cumulative 1.6 8.9 22.6 26.9 29.6 30.0 Economic Rate of Return; 18 percent Staff Appraisal Report: No. 4964-JO, dated May 21. 1984 *Excludes taxes and customs duties, from which the project is exempt.  INTERNATIONAL BANRK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT AND RECOMfMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE IBRD TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN - TO THE HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN FOR A MULTI-MODE TRANSPORT PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recammendation on a proposed Bank loan, to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, of $30.0 million equivalent to help finance a Multi-FMode Transport Project- The loan would be for a l5-year period, including 3 years of grace at the standard variable interest rate. The Government would relend $20.0 million of the proceeds of the loan to the Aqaba Railway Corporation (ARC) on the same terms as the Bank loan. ARC would bear the foreign exchange risk. The Saudi Fund for Development * and the Islamic Development Bank are expected to contribute respectively about S11.4 million and $9_3 million equivalent toward project financing. Tne Government would contribute about $75.1 million and the baLance of S7 million would be financed by suppliers' and export credits. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. A report entitled "Jordan - Review of the Five-Year Plan" (No. 4129-JO, dated May 1983) was distributed to the Executive Directors in June 1983. An economic mission visited the country in May/June 1983; its findings have been included in the present text. Country data sheets are attached as Annex 1. 3. Jordan is a country of 2.4 million people (East Bank) with limited natural resources and a traditionally service and trade-oriented economy. It has enjoyed a high rate of growth and made good progress in developing manufacturing production, increasing investment, and promoting exports. This economic performance has taken place in the context of increasing trade with neighboring countries, expanding inflow of remittances from Jordanians working abroad, and substantial levels of foreign aid. Recent Economic Developments 4. Renewed stability following the disruptions of 1967-71, and the oil boom in the region after 1973 created a climate conducive to sustained and rapid economic growth during 1975-82, resulting in an average annual GDP growth of over 10 percent in real terms. In 1982, GNP per capita reached 1,690. The upsurge of the economy was due to; (a) the rapid growth of the mining and manufacturing sectors; (b) the sharp increase in construction, particularly in housing and large public works; and {c) favorable external * 'actors, including booming conditions in the Gulf countries. While rainfed agriculture suffered from a severe drought during the 1976-79 period and more recently in 1981, vegetable and fruit production in the irrigated areas increased significantly. I/ Substantially unchanged from Part I of the President's Report (No. P-3792-JO) for the Eight Cities Water Supply and Sewerage Loan, which was distributed to the Executive Directors on May 7, 1984.  5. The overall balance of payments remained strong despite a large chronic deficit in merchandise trade. Exports of goods and non-factor services increased by 32 percent annually at current prices from 1975 to 1981. This growth was due to high demand and prices for fruits and vegetables in neighboring countries, booming exports of manufactured goods and a sharp increase in receipts from tourism and other non-factor services. Jordanian goods have been able to compete successfully in Middle East markets because of the advantages of Arab Common Market and bilateral agreements, the relatively good quality of the products, enterp-ising marketing and the favorable geographical location. Although the growth in the volume of imports was slower than that of exports, the resource gap increased in current terms from $560 million in 1975 to about $2,318 million in 1981. These trade deficits, however, were fully compensated by factor income and transfers from abroad. As a result, Government-guaranteed external borrowing remained within reasonable limits and borrowing on commercial terms was reduced to a modest level (para 15). 6. Expenditure and domestic revenue of the Government both increased at a rate of about 23 percent per annum through 1976-81. The overall budget deficits were financed by a rising volume of grants from Arab countries following the Baghdad Sumiit Conference in 1978. Current expenditures, excluding defense, were covered by domestic revenues. Defense expenditures were largely financed by foreign grants. 7. The main concerns of monetary policy have been mobilizing savings and controlling domestic liquidity. Private savings have improved, but public savings have continued to be negative because of the high level of defense expenditures. To promote domestic savings, greater discretion is being allowed the Central Bank in adjusting interest rates and banking commissions. Increases in deposit rates were effected and have resulted in savings deposits increasing faster than money supply. Together with a marked decline in inflation to an average 6 percent in 1982-83, these increases have resulted in interest rates becoming substantially positive again in real terms. 8. In 1982, the rapid GNP growth slowed down to 7.4 percent, mainly as a result of the slowdown in industry and construction. Exports and w&rkers' remittances also stagnated, reflecting the deceleration in economic activity in the neighboring oil producing countries. Appropriate Government policy responses prevented this slowdown from creating balance of payments problems. The Government reduced sharply the public investments following a decline in grant aid, while private investments were slowed down by the near stagnation of workers' remittances. Construction activity and imports of machinery and equipment declined in parallel to investments. As a result of investment cut-backs, the overall public finance deficit exceeded only slightly the 1981 level, and foreign borrowing increased only moderately. The overall balance of payments showed a deficit for the first time in four years and foreign exchange reserves declined by some 12 percent, but remained at over three months' imports. 9. Several indicators point to a further slowdown in the overall economic growth rate to about 6 percent (in real terms) in 1983, a satisfactory performance considering the present unfavorable economic  environment; foreign grant aid was about 30 percent lower, workers' remittances stagnated while exports of manufactured goods and of services to neighboring countries declined. The effect of these negative factors was exacerbated by a marked decline in exports of raw and processed minerals. Imports also declined, in line with the sizable reduction in public and private investments, while the Government has further intensified its domestic resource mobilization efforts through cuts in subsidies and improved collection of direct and indirect taxes. As a result, preliminary estimates of the balance of payments show a 25 percent lower goods and services deficit. It was covered by foreign grants and the proceeds of a $225 million Eurodollar loan contracted in early 1983. Medium-Term Prospects 10. The current Plan (1981-85) aims at maintaining the rate of growth of the economy close to that achieved during the previous plan. In terms of the investment program, the Plan was ambitious-total investment would be maintained at 33-35 percent of GNP, 53 percent of which is by the Government. The announced strategy is LO Dursue the objectives of the last decade, namely to; (a) reduce the heavy dependence on external assistance while maintaining rapid growth; (b) diversify the economy by increasing commodity production; (c) reduce the budget deficit; and (d) improve the distribution of the benefits of growth. 11. Given the changed situation and outlook in the neighboring oil producing countries and its impact on the availability of resources for investment and public expenditures, continuing GDP growth in the 9-11 percent range would no longer appear feasible. Projections on the basis of revised assumptions indicate that a rate of 5-6 percent p.a. in real terms appears more likely. It is assumed that a reduction will take place in the exceptionally high investment rate experienced during the early 1980's (40-45 percent of GNP). Industrial output, however, will benefit from the completion of a number of major projects such as potash and fertilizer, now at initial stages of production, and is likely to maintain an overall average annual growth rate of about 10 percent. Barring serious disruptions in agricultural output through unfavorable weather conditions, Jordan would realize a significant increase in the share of commodity producing sectors in total domestic output (from 38 percent to 43 percent) and thus correspondingly reduce its traditional dependence on the services sector. 12. Medium-term prospects for increasing exports remain promising. The completion of the major export-oriented industrial projects, together with the enterprise displayed by the private sector, should result in significant increases in foreign exchange earnings. In agriculture, the expected increase in vegetable and fruit exports will, however, be more than offset by growing imports of food, and the agricultural trade deficit would probably increase. Even though merchandise exports are projected to maintain a high rate of increase (13 percent p.a. at constant prices) while imports would grow at a significantly lower rate, the trade deficit could continue to increase and could exceed the $2.5 billion mark by 1984. In relation to GNP, however, the resource gap is expected to show a significant further decline (from 62 percent to 48 percent). Unlike the recent experience, net workers' remittances and foreign grants, which are  - 4 - likely to decline, may not be sufficient to meet the growing trade deficit. Jordan therefore would have to rely more on external borrowing (para 16). Social Issues 13. Due to the substantial migration of Jordanians to neighboring countries 2nd the rapid economic growth, the present labor market situation has been characterized by selective manpower shortages. However, according to the Bank's manpower projections demand and supply for labor in Jordan might become more balanced throughout this decade with the possibility of an emerging surplus of certain categories of skilled professionals. In 1980, out of the approximately 800,000 Jordanians (including Palestinians from the West Bank) residing abroad, a little over 200,000 were estimated to be workers, compared to a total domestic employment of about 440,000. Domestic employment includes a number of foreign workers currently estimated at about 125,000; half of these workers are unskilled. The country has expanded its education and training system rapidly, to meet both domestic and external needs. A comprehensive manpower and training plan is needed to help ensure that: (a) the economy does not suffer from shortages of crucial skills, while meeting prospective demand for skilled workers abroad as far as possible; and (b) the potential labor force is utilized more fully--especially the seasonally idle workers in rainfed areas and women, whose participation, although growing fast, is still low. The Bank is assisting the Government with a review of these matters. 14. The Government has further emphasized social issues in the current Five-Year Plan (1981-85). Although the social indicators provide a relatively favorable reading in most sectors, social services are unevenly distributed across income groups and between urban and rural areas. Thus, while health infrastructure is adequate and life expectancy is relatively high (61 years), medical doctors are concentrated in urban centers. Housing remains a problem despite the boom in 1978-80, mainly because housing costs have far exceeded the means of the lower income groups. The Government's concern about these issues has led to the setting up of the new Ministry of Social Affairs in November 1979 to define a coherent social development program. The Bank has assisted the Government with reviews of the urban and regional development issues. External Assistance 15. With the large chronic trade deficit offset by inflows of remittances and foreign transfers, the current account of the balance of payments was on average in equilibrium through 1975-81. Net workers' remittances increased from about $160 million in 1975 to about $900 million in 1981 and 1982. Following the Baghdad Arab Summit Conference in November 1978, which pledged assistance of about $1.2 billion per year over a 10-year period, net foreign grant aid rose from $400-500 million in 197J-78 to about $1.3 billion in 1980 and 1981; it declined to some $1 billion in 1982. This decline was the main reason for the current account deficit of over $330 million in that year. The external public debt outstanding and disbursed reached $1.7 billion at the end of 1982 (about 40 percent of GNP); the outstanding and disbursed debt to IDA was about $84 million, and to IBRD, about $70 million. External debt service pa-.'ments amounted to $193 million in 1982 or 6.1 percent of total exports of goods and services.  16. Jordan's impressive stability, pragmatic economic and social policies and efficient economic management have helped to attract large foreign assistance. Except for aid related to defense expenditures, the graat component of this foreign assistance is expected to decline over the next few years. The projections on that basis indicate a need for average gross external borrowing of about $1 billion over the 1984-1990 period, mostly in later years. While bilateral and multilateral sources can be expected to provide the bulk of external resources, Jordan is likely to resort increasingly to the financial markets, and this would result in a hardening of loan terms. On these assumptions, the debt service ratio as a percentage of exports of goods and services is projected to reach 9-10 percent by 1987 and some 13 percent by 1990. Given this outlook and the country' s record of prudent management, Jordan remains creditworthy for Bank lending. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS 1/ 17. Jordan has received 14 Bank loans totalling $350.8 million and 15 IDA credits totalling $86.1 million (net of cancellations) of which all the credits and two loans have been fully disbursed. Project implementation and disbursement performance have been generally satisfactory. In recent years, disbursements have amounted to about 65-70 percent of appraisal estimates. This disbursement level is among the best in the Region. The IDA credits have financed projects in key sectors, such as education, highways, water supply and sewerage, power, irrigation and tourism. By mid-1978, Jordan had attained a stage of economic development where it could be considered creditworthy for Bank lending and had reached a GNP per capita level that exceeded IDA limits. IDA lending was thus discontinued after March 1978. IFC has made investments in Jordan with total commitments of $94.2 million. Annex II contains a summary statement of Bank loans and IDA credits, and IFC investments as of March 31, 1984. 18. Bank group assistance to Jordan has been directed toward export- oriented projects on which the Bank Group has cooperated closely with the Government in project preparation and in the mobilization of large external financial assistance. In addition, the Bank Group has been assisting the Government in implementing its social objectives of improving the income and living standards of the rural and urban poor, as well as expaading manpower training, as enunciated in the first Five-Year Plan (1976-80) and emphasized in the second Five-Year Plan (1981-85). Bank assistance has also fostered the development of the power subsector to meet the demand from a rapidly growing economy. 19. In line with these objectives, the Bank Group has provided technical assistance for developing and implementing a plan for expanding phosphate rock mining, and for preparing a comprehensive program for a second phase of development of the agricultural potential of the Jordan Valley and for water supply based on the Maqarin Dam. An engineering credit 1/ Substantially unchanged from Part II of the President's Report (No. P-3792-JO) for the- Eight Cities Water Supply and Sewerage Loan, which was distributed to the Executive Directors on May 7, 1984.  -6- was made in FY75 to help prepare a large project for potash produ':tion from the Dead Sea via solar evaporation, for which a loan was approved in September 1978; the project has been successfully completed. In addition, further support for the Government's social and economic objectives was provided in recent years by loans for the Fifth and Sixth Education projects approved in March 1983 and February 1984, the Cities and Villages Development Bank (CVDB) project approved in March 1980, the Urban Development and Urban Transport projects approved in July 1980 and July 1983 respectively, the Fifth Power project approved in May 1982, the Zarqa/Ruseifa Water Supply and Sewerage and the Eight Cities Water Supply and Sewerage projects approved in December 1982 and May 1984, and the Energy Development project approved in December 1983. IFC has provided loans and equity contributions for a major fertilizer project and for projects in the construction materials subsector. It has also assisted capital market and leasing ventures. It is currently considering a paper project as well as a mechanical industry project. 20. The Government has requested Bank assistauce in the transport sector to meet the needs of the highway, railway, and port subsectors, whose development is critical to the transport of key commodities. The proposed project addresses these needs. Projects under preparation include mining, water supply/sewerage, urban and health development, energy and industry. 21. In a parallel effort at the macroeconomic and sectoral levels, the Bank assisted the Government by reviewing the 1981-85 Five-Year Plan, with emphasis on industrial sector and manpower analysis. It has also helped review the energy, water supply and urban sectors, regional development issues, and export strategy and export promotion in manufacturing industries as well as the health sector. The reports entitled Energy Sector Study, Review of the Five-Year Plan (1981-85), Export Strategy and Export Promotion In Manufacturing Industries, and Urban Sector Review were distributed to the Executive Directors in March 1983, May 1983, and June 1983 (both Export Promotion and Urban Sector Reviews) respectively. The reports on regional development, health and water sector reviews are approaching completion. 22. At the end of 1980, the actual Bank Group share in Jordan's total external public debt was estimated at 8 percent, and its share in debt service was 2 percent. By 1985, the Bank Group's shares in debt outstanding and in debt service are expected to be about 7 percent and 5.5 percent respectively. PART III -- THE TRANSPORT SECTOR Background 23. Jordan's transport system comprises highways, railways, ports and airports. The main transport corridor connects Amman with Syria to the north, and with the Gulf of Aqaba to the south, and is served mainly by highway and partially by railway. The only seaport, Aqaba, is located at the northern tip of the Gulf of Aqaba. Air transport serves the two main towns, Amman and Aqaba, and is significant primarily for international passenger traffic to and from Anman. The major centers of population and domestic production are relatively close together, so only limited domestic transport is required. The situation is quite different for imports, exports and transit traffic, which generally involve long distances.  24. In general, the different subsectors have adjusted to the recent expansions in traffic flows, including traffic to Iraq. However, there are obvious transport problems-including highway pavement deterioration, inadequate axle-load control, heavy truck congestion in Aqaba, and under-utilization of railway capacity--which will soon increase when planned expansions of major production centers are realized- Unless timely action is taken, bottlenecks on the country's main export/import routes will impede the movement of key commodities such as phosphate, potash, fertilizers, and cement, as well as general cargo. An efficient transport system is vital for the economy of Jordan as well as its neighbors. 25. Transport accounted for about 15-20 percent of Jordan's investments in the 1970s. The bulk of transport investments in the 1980s would be designed to aid the mining, export and manufacturing industries. Road transport would continue to dominate the main export/import routes, particularly for the movement of general cargo, potash, cement and trar.sit traffic. However, there is an increasingly urgent need to increase rail capacity in order to transport the growing production of rock phosphate, Jordan's main export commodity. Port facilities have been recently expanded and are now adequate, even though port traffic during the last few years has surged as a result of the hostilities in the Arabian Gulf. Planning, Policy and Coordination 26. The responsibility for administering the transport system is dispersed among the Ministries of Transport (MOT), Public Works (MPW) and Interior (MOI), the National Planning Council (NPC) and, to a lesser extent, other Government bodies such as the Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs and Environment. The responsibility for overall planning and coordination rests with HOT, which commissioned a comprehensive National Transport Study (NTS) during 1982/83 to provide a basis for transport investment and a coordinated transport development strategy. The draft Final Report of this study prepared by the consultants, Dorsch Consult, Hughes Economic Planning and Deutsche Eisenbahn Consulting GMBH, was presented to the Government in July 1983. Investments in transport are coordinated by NPC. MOT is responsible for railways, Aqaba port and aviation. Concerning the highway sector, MPW is in charge of the national and rural roads, and formulates regulations concerning axle loads, vehicle weight limits and dimension of vehicles with input from MOI. MOI also prepares regulations governing construction standards for vehicles and their operations. There is little regulation of goods movements in the transport market; both the railway and the trucking industry are encouraged to set cost-based rates and adopt market policies. The expanding road transport industry has attracted most of the traffic. 27. A Central Traffic Committee and Local Traffic Committees review applications for the licensing of freight vehicle operators, bus and taxi operators, and consider services to be provided and routes to be served. The Minister of Interior chairs the Central Traffic Committee, whose members are MOI, MOT, MPW, the Ministries of Industry and Commerce, Municipal and Rural Affairs and Environment and representatives of the operators. Each Local Traffic Committee is chaired by a Governor with members who include the head of Police and the head of the District Office of MPW in each Governorate, and delegates from the Public Transport Corporation and the Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs and Environment.  - 8 - 28. The 1971 HOT Law specifically requires MOT to exercise full responsibility for coordinating transport maLters. Furthermore, it states that a Higher Council for Transport shall be established to participate in general transport policy and to coordinate transport activities in departments and corporations. This Council has not yet been set up. However, in view of the need for closer coordination between transport modes, the Government would establish by end-1984, an inter-ministerial coordinating committee to resolve problems relating to movement of key commodities. Sector Objectives 29. The Government's primary objectives for the transport sector are to build the infrastructure needed to support the development of other sectors of the economy, to enhance the operational efficiency of the key operating agencies through modernization, to conserve energy by promoting rail transport and to improve manpower planning. The Government attaches the highest priority to the improvement of international trade routes carrying substantial quantities of phosphate, potash, fertilizer, cement and general cargo vital to the economy of Jordan and neighboring countries. Issues 30. Diesel and Aviation Fuel Subsidy. In 1979, the Government decided to phase out subsidies for petroleum products. Since then, domestic prices have been increased on six occasions by a total of about 180 percent. The weighted average domestic price is now above the weighted average border price for petroleum products. The prices of diesel and aviation fuel, although subsidized, are close to border prices and the issue of remaining subsidies on these products is of minor significance. The Government, in connection with the recent Energy Development Loan (Ln. 2371-JO), reaffirmed its intention to continue to review domestic prices of petroleum products with the objective of phasing out subsidies over the medium term (1984-89). 31. Road User Charges. The estimated income in 1981 from road user charges amounted to about $70 million, compared to costs of about $60 million on inter-urban roads, thus overall road transport costs are covered on a pay-as-you-go basis. At present, however, the large fleet of heavy trucks does not pay adequately for the wear it causes to roads. NTS has recommended that for freight vehicles, registration and licensing fees be appropriately related to maximum gross vehicle weights in accordance with the vehicles' maximum permissible axle loads. NTS has made many other related recommendations revising user charges such as annual license fees, import duties, diesel fuel prices, transit fees, etc., particularly for trucks, to cover the costs. The Government would appoint a committee by end-1984 to consider revenue measures recommended in the HTS and initiate action on selected measures by end-March 1985. 32. Axle-load Control. Highway overloading due to unregulated axle loads has severely damaged primary roads in Jordan. If overloading is allowed to continue, further damage to the roads will keep transport costs unduly high. The Government has recently enacted a bill limiting the axle load to 13 tons. The Government would ensure effective enforcement of legislation regarding  - 9 - axle loads, gross vehicle weights for particular vehicular configurations and vehicle dimensions; in particular, as stipulated by a recent decree, Der-missible overloadings (currently 25 percent) would be reduced in stages each year and eliminated by the end of 1986. Additionally, the Government -would discourage the importation and use of two-axle trucks and encourage the purchase of multi-axle vehicles by proper fiscal incentives and more favorable licensing policy. To effectively address these issues, the Government vould prepare an action plan by mid-1985. Highways Subsector 33. Network and Organization. MPW is responsible for 2,004 km of paved prirma.r highways, 867 km of paved secondary highways. and about 4,000 km of village and feeder roads. MPW headquarters at Amman is adequately staffed, with some positions filled by cousultants. The MPW engineering districts correspond to the eight governorates. The district organizations need -ein.o-cemene for the purposes of more effective road maintenance. 34. Highway Investment Plan. The 1981-85 highway investment plan is estimated to cost about $540 million equivalent and has the general objective or meeting transpo'-t requirements and public safety by the construction/ reconstruction/improvement or 2,240 km (600 km primary, 240 km secondary aId l,400 -km rural/agricultural) roads. Implementation of the plan is well underway and by the end of the plan period it is expected that 80-85 percent of the projects will have been completed. The investment plan has been reviewed by the Bank and found to be sound and comprehensive. 35. Highway Maintenance. Maintenance has been insufficient, largely because of a lack of adequate equipment and plant, and competent equipment operators. A central plant-hire system, set up about two decades ago, has deteriorated due to inadequate management, and shortage of staff and financi.g. For this reason it cannot fulfill its functions. The Government and MPW have taken steps to improve maintenance by: (a) utilizing bilateral technical assistance from the USA, UK, and Sweden to plan, manage, and operate a highway maintenance system based on NTS recommendations; and (b) establishing a new (commercial) plant-hire corporation vith 25 percent state participation in it. This corporation will lease to MPW equipment and plant for maintenance. MPW will review with the Bank by end-1984 the maintenance system to be derived from the technical assistance, and arrangements for ensuring the availability of financing and equipment for the planned operations (Loan Agreement, Section 3.04(a)). In this context, MPW would implement a plan over the period September 1984-1986 for the development and efficient functioning of the new plant-hire corporation. Railway Subsector 36. Network and Organization. The Aqaba Railway Corporation (ARC) was established under the ARC Law of 1972 and has been in operation since 1975. It is governed by a seven-member Board of Directors under the chairmanship of the Minister of Transport. It operates a single railway line of 294 km whose sole function is to transport phosphate from the mines in central Jordan to the port of Aqaba- Most of the line follows the old Hejaz Railway alignment, upgraded with sub-standard track materials. While traction and rolling stock  - 10 - are relatively new, ARC faces the need for overhauls. Staffing is also a problem area. As of the end of FY83, ARC employed 797 staff. Recruitment of staff became difficult and turnover extremely high when headquarters was moved in 1980 from Anman to Ma'an. Additionally, ARC ground-level staff is in need of training. To improve ARC's ability to operate the railway with available manpower, 70 staff from Rail India Technical a2d Economic Services (RITES-India) were engagel under contract to provide technical assistance in development planning, pro_ect planning and supervision; however, they often have to fill in-line positions for the daily operation of the railway. The external demand for Jordan.an labor has decreased in recent years, and it is expected that more manpower will be available to ARC and that like many other institutions in Jordan, staffing problems will subside. 37. Traffic and Operations. Phosphate traffic from the mines to Aqaba (for export) increased from 1.15 million tonnes in 1979 to about 2.6 million tonnes in 1983. The Jordan Phosphate Mining Company (JPIC) forecasts that tctal production from the three mines now working would be at least 6 million tonnes in 1986, of which 4 million would be for export. ARC now operates about seven phosphate trains daily, an improvement from 1979/80, when only three trains ran per day. To carry the projected 4 million tonnes in 1987, the number of trains has to be increased to 10-11 per day. ARC has set up an Action Plan to improve operational efficiency that details specific targets ARC would meet over the next four years (SAR, Annex 1 and Table 5). These include increasing the number of wagons per train, reducing turnaround time, and improving the availability of rolling stock. 38. Railway Investment Plan. ARC has prepared an Investment Plan for 1984-87 which is realistic and responsive to the needs of Jordan's economy. Total investment for 1984-87 is about $89 million equivalent, out of vhich about $22 million equivalent is spillover works and the balance, about $66 million equivalent, is new. About 80 percent of spillover works and 60 percent of new investments in>!lve high-priority track renevallrehabilitation and track machinery. The balance will go for acquisition of rolling stock and developing railway workshop facilities. The rail components of the proposed project cover more than 80 percent of the new works in the Investment Plan and were selected to achieve its principle objective, which is to increase the operational efficiency of ARC and to secure its financial viability. Port Subsector 39. Organization. A Royal Decree of 1952 established The Ports Corporation (TPC) as an independent public corporation. It currently employs 4,500 staff. TPC is managed by and acts through its five-member Board, two of whom are Government representatives. The Board is presided over by the Minister of Transport. The Deputy Chairman of the Board acts as Director General, and is responsible for the operations of the port. TPC is legally empowered to operate the port of Aqabm and to levy dues and charges for the use of the port and its facilities. It provides pilotage, towing, bunkering, water and communication facilities, and controls and supervises the quays, bulk cargo and container handling facilities. TPC is a reliable source of revenue and contributes substantial sums to the Government budget after meeting its financial obligations.  - 11 - 40. Port Facilities. Aqaba has at present seven main general cargo berths and four smaller berths. Overall, the general cargo berths and associated sheds and storage areas are in satisfactory condition. None of the berths carries any portal cranes. In addition, there are two phosphate loading berths, A and B. Berth A is now being used for imported minerals aud edible oils, and can take vessels up to 18,000 dwt. TPC has agreed to complete, by end-1985, an investigation of the optimal technical and financial methods for using the facilities of Berth A for loading phosphate, and to furaish the findings and recommendations of the investigation to the Bank for comment. Additionally, it will review with the Bank the actions to be taken on the basis of this investigation (Loan Agreement, Section 3.09). There are also two floating berths about 5 km south of the port for handling container, cement and roll oalroll off (Ro-Ro) traffic. Nearby, two additional berths, one for container and one for Ro-Ro traffic, have been constructed. A second container berth is under construction and will be completed in 1984. Some 15 km south of Aqaba at Wadi 2 there is a modern jetty for the import of raw materials such as sulphur and the export of potash and fertilizer in bulk. The capacity of the Port of Aqaba is sufficient to handle traffic in the uear future. 41. Traffic and Operations. Container traffic has increased nine-fold between 1977 and 1983, and is expected to increase another three-fold by 1987. General cargo operations are satisfactory, but the overall operation of the container cargo could be improved with proper stacking and plant maintenance arrangements, training of operators and middle management. The central maintenance workshops are small and lack sufficient covered area, equipment and skilled labor to carry out effective self-financed investments in workshop improvements and training activities, the latter of which are addressed in this project (para 50). 42. Investment Plan. The Five-Year Plan for 1981-1985 provided for about tll9 million in investments for the port. About $18 million would be financed by TPC, about $38 million by the General Budget, and the rest by the Saudi Fund, the Islamic Development Bank and the Iraqi Fund. All major investments have been completed or are at an advanced stage. No new major projects are envisaged during the project period other than the provision of technical assistance and training component included in the project. Bank Involvement in the Transport Sector 43. The proposed project would be the second in the transport sector and the first for rail/port development. In June 1971, the Association approved a Credit (262-JO) in the amount of $6.0 equivalent, to assist in the construction of a highway from Amnan to Zarqa (18 km), the two major population centers, and to finance related consultancy services, the purchase of road maintenance equipment and an urban transport study of Amman. The credit was closed and fully disbursed in December 1974. The road construction component was completed two years later than expected vith a 30 percent cost overrun. The main problems encountered in the project were inefficiency of the contractor and slowness in arranging for the clearing of obstructions and relocation of utilities from the right-of-way (PPAR No. 1762 dated October 18, 1977). In the proposed transport project all of the required land belongs to the Government and therefore the right-of-way for the proposed  - 12 - civil works should be secured without problems. The FY83 Amman Transport and funicipal Development Project addressed the infrastructure needs and transport issues in the commercial and low-income areas of the capital. 44. The Bank's main objective in the transport sector is to help streamline transit trade and the movement of key export commodities. Accordingly, the Bank's main objective in thp highways subsector is to help develop the institutional and policy framework for the proper use and maintenance of an adequate road network. In railways the emphasis -s on increasing the phosphate carrying capacity by operating the system more efficiently. In the Aqaba port - the only port of Jordan on a very small (20 km) coastline - the focus is both on maximizing the capacity of available installations and on institution building. Institutional and policy measures that would better integrate the operations of the different transport modes and increase overall efficiency are also assigned high priority. PART IV - THE PROJECT Project History 45. Based on the findings of the National Transport Study (NTS), supplmented by the Bank's assessment of the sector needs, a Multi-Mode Transport Project was appraised. The project addresses transport bottlenecks that affect the highway, railway and port subsectors. Improvements under the project would facilitate the transport of key commodities vital for the economy of Jordan and its neighbors. The proposed project forms an important and economically justified part of the high priority investments included in the current Five-Year Development Plan of Jordan. 46. The project was identified in August 1982 and appraised in November/ December 1983. Negotiations were held in Washington during May 7 - 11, 1984. The Government delegation was led by Mr. Omar Abdullah Dokhgan, President of the National Planning Council and included representatives of the Ministry of Public Works (MPW) and the Aqaba Railway Corporation (ARC). A Staff Appraisal Report entitled "A Multi-Mode Transport Project" 'No. 4964-JO), dated May 21, 1984, is being distributed separately to the Executive Directors. Toe main features of the loan and the project are mentioned in the Loan and Project Sutmary and in Annex III. A map indicating the project areas is attached. Project Objectives and Components 47. The objectives of the project are; (i) to ease critical transport bottlenecks on principal export/import routes in order to facilitate the movement of key commodities such as phosphate, potash, fertilizer, cement, as well as general cargo; (ii) to continue institution-building efforts through investment and financial planning, manpower management, training and technical assistance; (iii) to promote improved functioning of the highway sector through more systematic and effective highway maintenance, and better monitoring, oontrol and enforcement of vehicle axle loads and dimensions; and (iv) to improve ARC's operations and financial position through an Action Plan and by using improved technology.  - 13 - 48. The project mainly includes highway and railway components. The technical assistance and training provisioas would assist NW, ARC and TPC. The highway component would include maintenance, construction and provision of ecuipment. Routine maintenance would cover patching, shoulder maintenance, drainage clearance and up-keep of road markings and signs. Periodic maintenance would include strengthening of selected sections of the network. Equipment for highway maintenance, traffic and pavement testing would be procured under the project to reinforce maintenance efforts, including five to sevea permanent bitumen storage heaters for routine resealing and patching, a road striping machine, four sets of mobile weighing scales, traffic counters, and pavement deflection testing equipment for asphalt overlay design. The civil works component would include construction of a 30-km, two-lane alignment on the Aqaba-Amman road along the Wadi Yutum to Wadi 2 areas and a 6-km spur from the diversion to the container port. This diversion road would carry the heavv truck traffic that nov goes through the city of Aqaba. 49. The railway component would include: the expansion of Aqaba workshop to meet the maintenance needs of the locomotive fleet, thereby freeing space for freight wagon maintenance at Ma'an; track renewal to improve about 101 km of track in _hree different places to avoid traffic slow-down and derailments; machinery for track renewal, 90 phosphate freight wagons, and a breakdown crane to improve safety and to streamline phosphate transport. In addition, four locomotives would undergo rehabilitation in order to transport phosphate, ballast and track material. Extra spare parts would be procured for the rehabilitation. 50. Technical assistance to be provided under the project in the highway subsector includes 100-120 man-months of consultant services for in-line positions in MW to strengthen maintenance management. In the railway subsector, about 36 man-months of expatriate consultant services would be provided to train ARC maintenance staff. About 108 man-months of overseas fellowships would be provided for ARC personnel. In addition, the project includes 200 man-months of local consulting services and local training for strengthening ARC's operational capabilities. Training equipment and materials would also be provided under this component. In the port subsector, about 100 man-months of expatriate consultant services and about 36 man-months of overseas training is envisaged to train selected staff and middle management from TPC in container, general cargo and shipping operations, phosphate handling and storage, repair and maintenance of eq-uipment, finance and administration, project planning and maintenance, and safety/fire fighting. Implementation 51. The executing agencies for the project would be MPW for highways, ARC for railways and TPC for the port, each assisted by consultants. Engineering work for the Wadi Yutum-Wadi 2 road and related facilities is being carried out by the consultants VBB (Sweden) and Ahmet Fawzi and Associates (Jordan). This work would be completed by September 1984. Engineering work for Aqaba workshop extension was carried out by the Jordanian consultants Ruqn Al-Handasa. Consultants were not used for the preparation of other components. 52. In order to reduce costs, and improve quality and market position, ARC has prepared a comprehensive Action Plan that addresses organization,  - 14 - planning, investments, productivity, finance and staff training. ARC has agreed to; (i) carry out the Action Plan over the period 1984-1990; (ii) follow appropriate monitoring procedures to assess the implementation of the Plan; and (iii) submit quarterly progress reports and review annually with the Bank its progress and possible adjustments to the Plan (Project Agreement, Section 3.04). 53. MPW, ARC and TPC have nominated officers to be responsible for project implementation and for training. The project is expected to be completed by June 30, 1989- Financial Position of ARC and TPC 54. ARC. The financial position of ARC has shown improvement over the past five years and is expected to continue to improve. Since 1980, ARC has been able to cover working expenses and in 1983, for the first time, was able to meet working expenses and depreciation and almost all interest payments. ARC's operating ratio has decreased between 1979 and 1983 from 181 percent to 85 percent and is projected to be below 80 percent as of 1986, and 70 percent in 1990. Although ARC has operated at a loss since 1979, this loss decreased from about $5.0 million in 1979 to only about $71,000 in 1983. ARC is expected to have a net income of about $230,000 in 1986 and about $6.8 million in 1990. The debt:equity ratio has also improved, from 78;22 in 1979 to 62:38 in 1983, and is expected to be 47;53 in 1984 and 20.80 in 1990. In the past, the Government has provided assistance to ARC and other public companies that have been unable to cover debt service. The Government would continue this assistance to ARC in the future. It is conservatively projected that ARC would need such assistance for two more years. ARC would not incur any new debt unless its revenues adequately cover (1.5 times) its debt service (Project Agreement, Section 4.05). ARC has also agreed that through operational improvements as conceived in the Action Plan, such as efficient use of trains, acquisition of new railway stock and better maintenance, and tariff adjustments as needed, ARC would aim to earn sufficient revenues in 1986 and thereafter to cover, at least, its operating and maintenance costs, and debt service or depreciation, whichever is greater (Project Agreement, Section 4.04). In addition, ARC would take all measures to achieve the operating ratios indicated above. 55. TPC. TPC had net income of about $26.5 million and $33.2 million in 1981 and 1982 respectively. Operating ratios for both years were 48 percent, and debtzequity ratios for these two years were 29:71 and 30;70 respectively, a measure of the profitability of TPC's operations and sound financial situation. It is expected that TPC will continue to generate sufficient funds to finance a reasonable portion of its future investment needs, including the training program envisaged under the project. Accounts and Auditing 56. MPW would keep separate accounts for the project and would have those accounts audited by the Government Audit Bureau. This auditing arrangement would be satisfactory. ARC's accounts are kept on the same basis as the Government treasury system of accounting and budgeting, which is not accrual accounting. ARC has agreed to introduce by January 1, 1986 accounting  - 15 - procedures using accrual methods on a current and continuous basis (Project Agreement, Sections 4.01 and 4.03). ARC's accounts are audited annually by local auditors, and this arrangement is satisfactory_ ARC's financial statements would continue to be audited by a firm of auditors acceptable to the Bank and would be furnished to the Bank not later than six months after the end of each year. TPC's accounts follow the accrual system. They are audited annually and are satisfactory. As TPC is not a beneficiary of the Bank loan, it will not be required to submit audited annual statements to the Bank. Cost Estimates 57. The total project cost is estimated at about $133 million in April 1984 prices, with a foreign exchange component of about $80 million. The cost breakdown by components is given in the Loan and Project Summary at the beginning of this report. Cost estimates do not include taxes and custom duties from which the project is exempt. Physical contingencies were estimated at 10 percent of base cost except for the railway component, which was estimated at 7 percent. Price contingencies are about 16 percent of the base cost plus physical contingencies. Price escalation for foreign exchange vas calculated using 7.5 percent in 1984, 7.0 percent in 1985, and 6.5 percent thereafter; for local costs it was calculated using 7.5 percent throughout. Financing Plan 58. The proposed Bank loan of $30 million to the Government will finance about 23 percent of the total project cost, or about 38 percent of the foreign exchange component. The Saudi Fund for Development and the Islamic Development Bank are expected to participate in the financing of the project with loans of approximately $11.4 million and $9.3 million respectively. In addition to local costs, the Government is expected to finance foreign exchange costs, amounting to about $22 million. TPC will finance the total cost of port training amounting to about $1.3 million, including $1 million in foreign exchange. The remaining $7 million in foreign exchange will be covered by suppliers'/export credits. Signature of loan agreements with the Saudi Fund for Development and the Islamic Development Bank would be a condition of loan effectiveness (Loan Agreement, Section 6.01(b)). 59. The Government will relend $20.0 million of the loan proceeds to ARC on the same terms as the Bank loan. Signing of a subsidiary loan agreement * for this purpose is a condition of loan effectiveness (Loan Agreement, Section 6.01(a)). The onlending rate would be significantly positive in real terms as the current domestic inflation rate is about 5 percent per annum. Procurement and Disbursement 60. Contracts for civil works and railway track m-aterials to be financed by the Bank loan will be procured on the basis of international competitive bidding (ICB) and in accordance with the Bank's guidelines for procurement. Domestic manufacturers participating in bidding for track materials would be accorded a preference of 15 percent, or the customs duties, whichever is lower. Equipment for pavement testing and traffic data collection (about $0.6 million), which is specialized and not suitable for ICB, will be procured  - 16 - on the basis of limited international tendering (LIT) according to Bank guidelines. 61. The proposed Bank loan of $30 million would be disbursed over a six-year period. The disbursement profile is similar to other r-gional transportation projects. For the highway component, the loan would be disbursed against: (a) 60 percent of the total costs of asphalt overlay, which represents the estimated foreign exchange component; (b) 100 percent of the c.i.f. landed costs of highway maintenance, traffic and pavement testing equipment; (c) 100 percent of foreign exchange costs and 100 percent of ex-factory cost (for locally manufactured items) of track and materials; and (d) 100 percent of the foreign exchange costs of the consultant services. The loan closing date would be June 30, 1990. Benefits and Risks 62. The proposed project addresses high priority needs under the 1981-85 Five-Year Development Plan. Because of the competitive nature of the transport industry, it is expected that the benefits of the project, which initially accrue to transport users, would be ultimately passed on to the economy in general. The project is expected to have beneficial environmental impact by reducing traffic congestion, accidents and air pollution. It will also support Jordan's energy conservation efforts. The economic justification of the project components has been well established even under unfavorable assumptions concerning project costs, and users' benefits. Moreover, the risk involved in making an over-optimistic assumption regarding rail-borne traffic is negligible in this case because most of this traffic is already available to the railways but is at present moving by road for want of rail capacity. The project does not involve any special risk. Land acquisition was a problem under the previous project but under the proposed project, the Government owns all the land required and would arrange for the right-of-way for highway construction. Economic Rate of Return 63. The weighted average return on all quantifiable components which represent about 95 percent of total cost is 18 percent for the project as a whole. Returns (weighted average) of 16 percent and 20 percent are calculated for the highway and railway components respectively. Each of these components represents about one-half of total cost. Individual returns have been calculated for most sub-components, namely, periodic maintenance, the Wadi Yutum-Container Port road, the spur road, the Aqaba workshop extension, track renewal and track machinery, freight wagons, breakdown crane, and locomotive rehabilitation and spare parts. These returns range from 12-35 percent. The Government has agreed that MPW will undertake maintenance only for these highway sections whose return, as figured on the basis of principles agreeable to the Bank, are expected to be not less than 12 percent (Loan Agreement, Section 3.03). Even under the unfavorable assumptions of 15 percent higher construction/equipment cos,s combined with a 15 percent reduction in benefits the returns remain acceptable within the range of 10-29 percent with an overall weighted average return of 15 percent. This compares favorably with the opportunity cost of capital estimated at 10 percent. Benefits cannot be quantified for technical assistance and training and routine maintenance. However, these project elements are essential for tne project as a whole and  - 17 - benefits would reach the entire economy. The above returns understate the full economic benefits of the project as benefits due to reduction in accidents, environmental improvements and greater comfort and convenience to travelers cannot be quantified. PART V - LEG&L INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 64. The draft Loan Agreement between the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and the Bank, the draft Project Agreement between the Bank and ARC, and the Report of the Committee provided for in Article III, Section 4(iii) of the Articles of Agreement of the Bank are being distributed separately. Special conditions of the project are listed in Section III of Annex III. The special conditions of effectiveness are: (i) the Government would sign loan agreements with the Saudi Fund and the Islamic Development Bank for about $11.4 million and about $9.3 million respectively; and (ii) the Government would sign a subsidiary loan agreement with ARC. 65. I am satisfied that the proposed loan would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Bank. PART VI - REODMMENDATION 66. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed loan. A. W. Clausen President Attachments June 7, 1984 * Washington, D.C.  -18- ANNEX I Page 1 of 6 T A L E 3A PAGE I JOQWAN - SocIAL [SOICANIOS DATA SA S JoKAwa MEFZEBICE CmREs (%EEIQtr AvEawes) /a Mr DUST RECENt EsTIrSIL) lb R ECET NICOLIE DEWRE M1EE 1 1960D_6 19701-" b E S b 1s AFRICA & MM EAST AT.- AlERICA & cARIB AmA CrAcSw S. mX) TOT.AL 97.7 97_7 97.7 - AURICULTrL'AL 12.8 14.U 14.8 _ GW CAPIA CMSS) - - -- 1620.0/c 1340.0 2th_2 r: C u srr HZ CAPITA (LILOCRAMS OF CARL E4I1VALET) 185.0 308.0 627.U 810.4 1407.6 POSULATIOE AN IL STATISTICS POPULATItN.MI10-YEAR (THOUSANDS) 1695.0 _299.0 3370.0 LNBAR POPULATION (t OF TOTAL) 42_7 49.6 57_0 47.4 65_9 POPLLATIaN PROJECrEONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2O0O (MILL) 6_7 STATIOSARt POPULATION (MILL) 17.8 YEAR STATIONARY POP. REH 110 _ _ POPULATION DENSITY PEt SQ. IOt. 17.3 23.5 33_2 36.0 356 PER SQ. RLn. AG.l- LAND 132.4 164.2 219.: 449.0 93_2 POPr LAI1OS AiE srUwTURE (C) U-:L YRS 4_4. 45.8 4*.3 43.9 40_1 15-04 IRS 51.5 51.U 51.1 52.L 55.d 05 ASU AOE -_1 3_1 2.7 3_3 4.1 PoruLaTx"S GRoM ATE (:) TOT-AL 3.1 3u 3.S 2.Y9 2.3 NARA 5.2 4.5 4.7 4.6 3.7 CRUDE BERTA RATE (PER TdOLS) 47.4 47.b 46b5 42.5 31.5 CRUDE DEATH tATE (PER IHOCS) 19.9 15.5 9.0 12_U 6.1 CROSS REPRODLCTIOS RATE 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.0 2.0 FAMIILY PLASSINC ACCEPToRS, AJAL .TOCUS) _ _ USERS (= OF ARRIED OtE - -) --- -- FOlOD ANlD Nman ISDEX OF FOOD PROD_ PE CAPITA (1969-71-109) 220.0 79.0 71.0 97_5 113.0 PE1R CAPITA SLPPLY OF CALORIES (- OF REQUIREMENTS) 93.0 9310 96S0 102.3 111_3 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 6l.0 55.0 S2.0 72.0 67.9 OF WHICH AfLtL AND PULSE 1S_U 15.0 15.0/d 17.8 34.1 HILD CASES 1-4) DEATH RATE 26.3 12.5 5.4 15.2 5.3 mN LIFE ESXPECT AT BlRTH (YEARS) 47.0 54.1 61.7 ._2 04-6 INFANT twdT. RATE (PER TICUS) 135.5 97.5 eb.9 1I.2 6_.6 ACCESS TU SAFE AATEJ ('POP) TrOAL 21.3 _ W_.0/c,e 59.3 64.8 LRdAJ S 4._6 __ __ 54.9 77b RURAL 2.1 ...37.3 .4.3 ACCESS TO EXCiEETA DISPOSAL CZ OF PUPULATION) TO.AL __ __ 7BU/ce ..- CRBA - .. .. ._ __ 69.8 RURAL __ __ __ __ 29.8 POPULATIOrN PER PRYSICIAS 5800.0 3780.0 1890.0 3536.0 1776.0 POP. PER NURSING PERSON 1930.0/f 1480.0 1310.0 1820.7 1012.Z POP. PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 560.0 1350.0 1190.0/d 643.3 477.0 URBA 1100.0 6wo.oT 545.u 667.5 RURAL _ 5540.0 _. 24b2.0 1921.6 ADIISSIOSS PM HOSPITAL MED __ 36.5 45.7/d 26.4 27.2 OUSUE AVERACE SIZE OF LOUSEdOLD TOTAL 5.3 S.1 b.7/c GREaM 5.5 ._ RURAL i.1 __ AVERASE NU. OF PERSOSSIROt TOT-AL - - 6.5/c UR33 _ ___ RURAL _ . __ ACCESS M ELECT. (_ OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL 17.0 __ 66.0/c 46.2 CRaAs 39.2 __ 90.07T 77.6 RURAL 1.4 _ 0.0/_c 166.1  -19 - ANNE I Page 2 of 6 TASLE 31 PACE 2 JiOnA - SOCIAL DIrATRS DWA ST EEA JaNDAm REFEtEIcE am0ps raIG1ED OAIE5UGES) I- IS (lOST RECENT ESTWAIE) lb 1~ 1974A ESTD(ATk N. ACC E TED EAST LAT. ARtCA i ADJUSTIm EUWL1IE]h RATIOS nRnIAR: TOM 77.0 12.0/c IO.0k 89.6 105.0 HALE 94.0 79.07 .. L4.8 1053 rTa. 59.0 6 s.O7 .. 72.4 103.6 SEAt: TTAL. z5.0 33.0c 79.Oec.g 41.7 40o0 HALE 36.0 *1.O77 -. 52.8 36.6 FEIWE 13.0 24.07W . 31.2 41.2 VOCATIOL CZ OF SrCONAR) 2.7 3.0/c 13.0kt 10.3 34.0 PRIKAU 34.0 39.0/c 32-0/c 31.9 30.7 SmAUM 20.0 23.07; 20.07; 23_3 16.7 ADULT LITRC KATf CZ) 32.4 _ 70_0 63.3 79. 5 PASSEII CARSIT,SAND POP 3.7 6.7 19_S/d 18.0 :5.6 RADI REXImsI3USD 10P 37.8 160.9 165.2 138.1 22 IT R n POP 20.0 52.7 45.6 1OY.3 UOPAPE (bDAILY G3E3N. 1INREST) CtRCO.ATI0 PM TUOUSA3D POPMATMW 18.3 24.4 29.31d 31.0 66.1 c5uA JUUL ATlD^AN lPCT 3.2 0.9 4.8 1_7 2.9 TOMAL LO FORCE CT1) 432.0 569.0 800.0 UAwLe()E CUr 5.0 5.6 6.6 10.7 24.' AGRIULTURE C?EREZI 44.0 34.0 20.0 '2.5 31.3 D5uD CPmNw) 26.0 9.0 20.0 27_8 23.9 PAKTICIPATIOU tAZE (PERCENT) TOM 25.5 24.7 23.7 25.6 31.3 KILE 46.7 45.5 43.4 45_4 19-8 FRULE 2.7 2.8 3.2 5.6 14.t ON08C DEPENC RATWI 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.6 FRMI Or PRIVATE INCUE *IER E or N2E.DS .. . -- RIchRES 202 or uous ..-- LminKs? 2oT or NfhSENULDS . LinEST 20 OF UO1SK S.-- mr T 0 or _souz E05114E AISC.U POVER Man LE9M (US$ PMR CAPIT) Ian 230-01d 276.1 289.8 303I8 __ __ 100.07; 177_1 18&.5 ESTmATED RATIYm POVERT? SC LETS. (USS PER CAPITA) E uuaJJIR .. .. 206.-0d 400.0 519.6 RuL .. .. 135.07io 283.3 372.1 ZSTIRAIM P0P. BELOW ARS3LUrE POVERMT 1103 LEVUL (Z) R, .. 14.0 22.0 RU .. . 17.0 30.8 MOT AVAILAX.E NOT APPLICA4LE R O T E S fa The group averages for each indicator are populacoonwlghted aritlmetic eans. Coerage of countries anowg the 1ndicators depends on availability of data and In not mUfor. fb Un1les otbelse noted. -Data for 1960- refer to any year between 1959 and 1961: -Data for 1970- beteien 1969 and 1971; and data for lqot Rocent EntlSte~ beteen 1979 and 1981. IC East Bank; Id 1977; /e 1982; ff 1962; LI Includes prepratory edweatlon age 12-14 years. may 1983  - 20- ANNUI Page 3 of 6 sactei teI. - Os tn at ataaatdta datasamae aepa by dttt.at aat- Ms -adt-ttlc tI5 das Th.da. eabal..,a.! - _3et Istr ste a oa aca att.Lra ta _ate_ ktdl n atrs a S1 a5t tean at .ea . n-ta..asaa or afttatasa. I at rs.eca rsetat tb aena ac paalet- eteta sta- t te.K tar teat Erdtna aS ata aSit a.aat t ata *tr,ds a t:iics. stacs an-taas tseata t -iseaa SpS.- sta' eastlatIsy 51 daa- asF t- -elteat. ask ant Ia4 anasa-rias '-aa- Iaasta a.f a-tr mas aaas -. atyM MaalI safta b asin atl a9 ardtatI asst ana6 afto. caar aS ..Casana aca. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ '- -- -fFI.& s.T t..ato Ot labanansaaa aaateieSb lt at- reeftlal1s9 Uesaiti-tL-tant It aatal-aeL- - -sa a-aetatiy-tunty aea Ual snsi en Msatts--n, p-easlsa ante an tIlt, tall, cad Vtfl data, by - lea an gtaeia *ttbllaa atdnglcialyces ca_a.ana is _a _ aiaa.i-ir ic eMain a CYTa r=aflee aWIT. - atta ir0. ate a nrta dt. at'" ecntt nea yUsytt Eta by a SAl-& laracrt acat :ani ad ieatU.s-aelaa -,-.Lna ana- yaa.mi. att MM.s aidetta. ta. als l.. treatIs en aa s-er nI rartan aratisitasIoItaal an ani"adadrl -f. atal. 1atal taataL. .alm.