Jordan - Fifth Education Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 4180-JO STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT FIFTH EDUCATION PROJECT HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN February 14, 1983 Education-and Manpower Development Division Europe, Middle East and North Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  PRINCIPAL ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS USED GVSS - General vocational secondary school ICB - International competitive bidding MOE - Ministry of Education NPC - National Planning Council ODA - British Overseas Development Administration TA - Technical assistance UNDP - United Nations Development Programme VTC - Vocational Training Corporation CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS US$1.00 Jordanian Dinar (JD) 0.35 JD 1.000 = US$2.89 MEASURES 1 square mile = 10.764 square feet 1 square kilometer = 0.38 square mile 1 hectare = 2.47 acres FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN FIFTH EDUCATION PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT Table of Contents Page No. BASIC DATA I. THE EDUCATION SECTOR ................................... Socio-Economic Background ...........................1 I Sector Background. 2 Education and Training Issues. 4 Vocational Training Needs. 4 Job Relevance of Vocational Education. 5 Allocation of Students in Secondary Education. 6 MOE Implementation Capability. 6 Bank Strategy and.Lending for Education. 7 II. THE PROJECT. 8 Objectives and Scope. 8 General Vocational Secondary Schools (GVSSs). 9 Centralized Preparatory/Secondary Schools .13 MOE Institution Building .15 III. PROJECT COST, FINANCING, IMPLEMENTATION AND DISBURSEMENTS 16 Project Cost ........................ 16 Financial Plan ........................ 19 Recurrent Expenditures ........................ 20 Implementation ......................... 21 Accounting and Auditing ........................ 22 Disbursements ................... 23 IV. BENEFITS AND RISKS .24 Benefits .24 Risks .24 V. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION .25 This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission to Jordan in June/July 1982. Mission members were Messrs. Michael Mertaugh (Mission Leader), Valentine DeSa and David Lewis (World Bank), and Andreas Kouros (Consultant). Documents pertinent to the proposed project are listed in Annex 8. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  Table of Contents (Continued) ANNEXES PAGE 1. Detailed Cost Estimates by Nature and Purpose ......................... 26 2. Estimated Unit Areas and Unit Capital Costs for Project Institutions ................................................ 27 3. Project Cost Contingency Allowances ................................... 28 4. Implementation Schedule ............................................... 29-30 5. Estimated Schedule of Disbursements ................................... 31 6. Technical Assistance .................................................. 32 7. Comparative Education Indicators ...................................... 33-34 8. Selected Documents and Data Available in Project File ................. 35-36 CHART. Education Pyramid, 1980/81 ....................................... 37 MAP: Location of Project Institutions .38  HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN Basic Data Population (1980) Jordan (East Bank), total 2.2 million Annual rate of growth, 1970-1980 3.4% Proportion less than 15 years old 46.8% GNP per-capita (1980) US$1,420 School Enrollments 1981/82 I/ Girls as Enrollment as % of Level and Age Group Grade % of Age Group 2/ Enrollment Primary (6-11) 1-6 108 48 Preparatory (12-14) 7-9 91 46 Secondary (15-17) 10-12 66 43 Higher (18-23) 13-16+ 19 41 Public Expenditures on Education (1980) Central government expenditures on education as a percentage of total central government expenditures 3/ 10.2% Central government expenditures on education as a percentage of GNP 3/ 4.9% Adult Literacy Rate (as % of population over 12 years) 70.0% 1/ See Annex 7 for comparative education indicators. 2/ Gross enrollment ratios, including overaged students. 3/ Ministry of Education only.  I I  I. THE EDUCATION SECTOR Socio-Economic Background 1.01 Economic growth in Jordan during the period 1975-80 acnieved the Government's overall growth target of 12% per year in real terms. This striking performance was led by particularly rapid output growtn in phosphate mining (25% per year), construction (22% per year), and manufacturing (16% per year). Grants and migrant remittances played a major role in financing tne high level of investment necessary to achieve this growth. The 1981-85 Development Plan foresees continued rapid growth of output (11% per year) and a massive investment effort focussed on expanding capacity for manufacturing, mining, and utilities, and on meeting social infrastructure needs. 1.02 In view of its sparse endowment of water and mineral resources and its relatively highly educated labor force, Jordan rightly considers its labor force to be its most important productive asset. Jordan's labor force has not only made possible Jordan's rapid growth performance during the past five years, but has also made an important contribution to growth in the labor-importing Gulf states. Jordan exports a higher proportion of its labor force, particularly in the high skill occupations, than any of the other labor exporting countries in the region. Althougn the sizeable labor force outflow has led to manpower shortages in certain occupations, such as construction trades and accountancy, it has provided significant benefits to Jordan in the form of remittances (inflows of which rose from US$23 million in 1974 to over US$1 billion in 1981) and consolidation of job skills of Jordanian workers through work experience, and has relieved the demand for local job creation. 1.03 Population and, especially, labor force in Jordan are growing at an extremely rapid pace in spite of voluminous labor exports, and only a fraction of this growth (20%) can be attributed to labor migration from Egypt and other countries to fill the vacancies created by departing Jordanian workers. Total East Bank labor force grew at 3.5% per year during the 1960s and early 1970s, but,has grown at 6% per year since 1975. This very rapid growth of labor force results in part from the rise of male labor force participation rates which occurred in most age groups during the 1970s, as well as from the continuing movement of working-age Palestinian population from the West Bank to the East Bank. Most of it, however, results from the nigh rate of natural increase recorded in the East Bank since the 1960s and from the consequent youthfulness of the Jordanian resident population--almost half of which is less than 15 years old. Despite the rapid growth of employment (4.3% per year) since 1975, employment has not been able to keep up with the very rapid growth of the labor force. According to the initial results of the 1979 census, the unemployment rate for the Jordanian resident labor force rose to 9.1% in 1979, in contrast to the 2% unemployment rates recorded in sample surveys in 1972, 1974, and 1976. Although the 1979 sample census figures may overstate the true extent of increase in unemployment, they provide useful information about the characteristics of the unemployed--most of whom are young and have limited education and job skills. Further rapid growth of the labor force, combined with less rapid growth of foreign employment opportunities for Jordanian workers, will necessitate rapid growth of employment in Jordan if rising unemployment is to be averted. Thus, the Government's concern with meeting manpower needs in bottleneck occupations during the 1970s is likely to be progressively replaced by a concern to assure  - 2 - a rapid enough growth of productive employment to absorb the growing number of Jordanian labor-force entrants and returning migrants--and to equip the labor force more generally with skills which are relevant to job needs. Macroeconomic growth policies have the dominant role to play in generating the job demand for a growing labor force; the Government's expansive investment program, coupled with macro-economic incentives for private sector investment are the principal policy instruments for generating vigorous growth of manpower demand. An essential complement to this macro-economic policy setting to stimulate employment demand is the Government's program of rapidly expanded vocational training. By equipping the growing labor force with job skills which are directly relevant to employment needs both within and outside Jordan, this program aims both to relieve specific skilled labor shortages and to improve employment prospects for Jordanian workers. Sector Background 1.04 The Government has made a serious effort to modernize and diversify the economy and has a strong commitment to human resource development. Progress in expanding access to education has been striking: between 1974/75 and 1980/81, enrollments increased by about 22% at the primary level, 63% at the preparatory level, and 137% at the secondary level. Expansion of educational capacity was particularly successful in improving female enrollments and in reducing regional enrollment disparities. Female school enrollment was already high in 1974/75 by comparison with other countries in the Middle East, and rose further in the subsequent five years. Between 1974/75 and 1980/81, female enrollments as a percentage of total enrollments rose from 46.1% to 47.7% at the primary level, from 41.2% to 45.6% at the preparatory level, and from 36.7% to 43.3% at the secondary level. In spite of the Government's efforts to expand rapidly secondary vocational education, the growth of enrollments in vocational secondary programs only slightly exceeded the growth of general secondary enrollments; vocational enrollments as a proportion of total secondary (general plus vocational) enrollments rose from 12.9% in 1974/75 to 13.3% in 1980/81. Of the secondary vocational specializations over the period 1975 to 1980, enrollments in industrial and nursing programs rose most (132% and 727%, respectively), while enrollments in commercial programs rose more modestly (35%) and enrollments in agricultural programs declined (-43%). 1.05 The Ministry of Education (MOE) is responsible for formal education and training which includes primary, preparatory, general and technical secondary, and post-secondary polytechnics and community colleges. The universities are autonomous and governed by their own boards which are responsible for establishing general policy guidelines and determining each year the number of students to be admitted to the different faculties. A number of other Ministries, in particular the Ministry of Health and the Vocational Training Corporation (VTC), an autonomous government agency affiliated with the Ministry of Labor, are active in training related to their special fields. The VTC is responsible for the in-plant apprentice program conducted with the cooperation of employers and for a skill upgrading program. In addition, there is a vigorous effort in job-oriented vocational training in the private sector. There are, for example, 20 private community colleges which offer post-secondary courses principally in commercial specializations.  - 3 - 1.06 The Government's main objectives in education and training as expressed in the 1981-85 Development Plan are; (a) to expand basic eaucation (grades 1-9) from 91% of the age group in 1980 to 94% in 1985; (b) increasingly to channel secondary-level students into vocational specializations so as to achieve 30% vocational secondary enrollments by 1985; (c) to reduce by more than 20% by 1985 the proportion of illiterates among the popu:ation less than 60 years old; (d) to improve the quality of education through upgraded teacher qualifications, improved curricula and teaching materials, replacement of rented schools, and elimination of double shifting; and (e) to provide the trained manpower necessary to meet the evolving demanas of the Jordanian economy and of other Arab countries. A closely related goal is to expand labor-force participation, particularly by Jordanian women. These are reasonable and feasible educational goals. 1.07 The Government's strategy for achieving these objectives begins with an ambitious program of investment to expand education and training capacity at all levels. The Plan provides for over JD 225 million (about US$650 million) to implement priority projects in the education sector, including university education, and JD 9.2 million (about US$27 million) to implement training programs of the VTC and other agencies. An important element in the Government's strategy for further expansion of basic education is tne development of a new network of centralized preparatory/secondary schools with boarding facilities for students from communities too small and too dispersed to justify permanent schoois beyond the primary level. 1.08 The planned reorientation of secondary studies toward vocational specializations relies heavily on a rapid expansion of vocational education in MOE secondary schools. The Government's commitment to providing vocational training within the formal school system dates from 1964, when specialized industrial, agricultural, and commercial secondary schools were first introduced. Later, vocational training was also offered together with academic specializations in comprehensive secondary schools. General vocational secondary schools (GVSSs), which offer several vocational specializations but no academic specializations, are being introduced under the fourth education project. Bank project assistance since 1972 has been instrumental in supporting this expansion of secondary vocational education. Although secondary education reform plans being considered by the National Board of Education may affect the eventual format of secondary vocational education, the Government has affirmed that general vocational secondary schools will continue to be the main instrument for achieving the planned expansion of secondary level vocational education. The principal alternative source of vocational training at this level is the secondary-equivalent apprenticeship training program offered by the VTC. The curricula of VTC training courses are virtually identical to those of the MOE secondary vocational schools--the main difference between the two programs being the supervised in-plant instruction which VTC students receive. The vocational training programs of both the MOE and the VTC benefit from the close collaboration between the two programs in developing training programs, designing training facilities and planning future expansion. The VTC program has been manifestly successful in attracting students and in providing relevant job skills. Although it is being expanded with Bank and Government support, the VTC program is small and is expected to remain small in relation to the MOE secondary vocational education program. The Government's strategy relies on the formal school system to carry out tne bulk of the planned vocationalization of secondary level education not because of a lack of  - 4 - appreciation of the VTC apprenticeship training program, but because the capacity for expansion of the VTC program is constrained by the limited number of institutional employers in Jordan who are able to provide sustained, supervised job experience as the VTC apprenticeship formula requires. Indeed, the MOE intends to adopt a limited version of the successful VTC supervised work program in its secondary vocational schools. It plans to introduce a supervised summer work program for as many secondary vocational students as can be placed in jobs relevant to their training specialization. Education and Training Issues 1.09 The main issues in education and training are recognized by the Government, are the basis of a constructive dialogue with the Bank, and are addressed in the Government's plans. Tney are; (a) how to achieve a rapid expansion of vocational training in specific areas to meet manpower needs; (b) how to maximize job relevance of vocational education in view of the prospective rapid growth of job demand by new Jordanian labor force entrants; (c) how to improve the process of assigning students to secondary school specializations; and (d) how to implement the MOE's plan for expanded general and, especially, vocational education. Vocational Training Needs 1.10 Expanded vocational training efforts are essential both to meet the demand for skilled manpower in Jordan and for export to neighboring countries, and to equip the rapidly growing working-age population with relevant job skills. Although forecasts of Jordan's specific future manpower requirements are very much affected by assumptions about future flows of Jordanians working and studying abroad, the uncertainty from this source particularly affects projections of demand for professional and technical occupations. Projections of demand for skilled and semi-skilled workers are less subject to uncertainty because a larger share of the total demand for these categories of workers arises from economic activity within Jordan. The following table provides an estimate of manpower demand and supply within Jordan for the period 1982-90 in the skilled worker specializations to be offered by the GVSSs in the proposed project; Projected Of Which: Projected Skilled Estimated Supply of From From Cumulative Worker Demand for Skilled Workers Proposed Earlier Deficit of Special- Skilled Workers from all sources Fifth Bank Group Skilled Workers ization 1982-90 1982-90 Project Projects 1982-90 Agricultural 3,000 1,800 600 560 1,200 Industrial 108,700 49,800 6,400 8,820 58,900 Commercial 23,200 14,000 1,350 2,400 9,200 Nursing 9,500 6,000 1,800 1,120 3,500  -5- 1.11 The most conspicuous shortage of skilled workers appears in industry, where a deficit of almost 60,000 workers is projected. Because more than half of the expected new demand in this category arises from tne projected growth of construction employment, the construction trades--including electrical work, masonry and concrete, carpentry, heating, and plumbing--are lkely to be most affected by the shortage. Significant additions to the existing skilled worker training capacity are planned by the MOE and the VTC. Expansion of training capacity by the MOE in this area must be attentive to the need, emphasized by major construction contractors, of providing job experience as an adjunct to vocational instruction in the construction trades. The projected demand for skilled workers in agriculture is expected to be concentrated in the Jordan Valley, where the exploitation of recently discovered groundwater resources and tne rapid expansion of drip irrigation v and greenhouse agriculture are generating a growing demand for skilled agricultural manpower trained in these areas. Government plans for expanding female labor force participation focus on nursing and business (commercial studies) as the areas offering the best prospects for female employment. Recent tracer study results confirm that together with teaching, office work and nursing are the occupations most favored by girls and their parents. The projected growth in demand for skilled workers in commercial studies arises mainly from the continuing growth of civil service employment and employment in financial and other services, where employment is expected to maintain the 5%+ rate of growth recorded throughout the 1970's. Tne projected demand for skilled nursing manpower reflects the major improvements which the Government hopes to make both in the quality and the coverage of health services. In particular, the demand for 9,500 skilled nursing staff, corresponding to the assistant nurse training provided in the nursing specialization of the MOE's vocational secondary schools for girls, arises from the Government's plan to provide nursing staff to an expanding health infrastructure at all levels and to increase the efficiency of physician and paramedical staff in these facilities by increasing the ratio of assistant nurses to higher level medical personnel. The proposed project would include a significant expansion of skilled worker training capacity in these priority areas for male and female employment--creating 7,780 additional skilled worker training places by 1987 (paras. 2.03 and 2.04). Job Relevance of Vocational Education 1.12 The Government's plans for expansion of vocational training capacity are designed both to relieve specific skilled labor shortages and to improve employment prospects for the rapidly growing labor force. In order to achieve these goals, it is essential that training be directly relevant to job needs. Relevance in this case has two principal aspects; it relates to the provision of actual job experience as an element of vocational training and to the flexibility of the training system to respond to changing job needs. The important task of assuring the job relevance of vocational education thus consists of several elements, including; (a) adoption of a program of supervised job experience as an adjunct of classroom and workshop training; (b) adoption of a mechanism for continuous monitoring of changing employment prospects in specific occupations through tracer studies, inputs from employer groups and manpower planning with routinely collected macro-economic indicators; (c) adoption of a mechanism for prompt feedback of information on job prospects into the planning of the specialization mix and content of vocational training courses; and (d) improved student guidance at the  -6- preparatory level to guide the allocation of students into secondary specializations based not only upon academic performance and preferences, but also upon employment prospects. Technical assistance (TA) to be provided under the proposed project (para. 2.10) and measures agreed at negotiations (paras. 2.11, 5.01a, 5.01b, and 5.01c) would help to assure the continuing job relevance of the expanded program of MOE vocational instruction. Allocation of Students in Secondary Education 1.13 The MOE currently allocates students to academic and vocational specializations on the basis of three criteria; the student's performance at the end-of-preparatory examination, the student's expressed preference for an academic or vocational secondary specialization, and the number of available secondary school places. Student guidance is not provided to assist students in indicating their preferences for the different specializations available in secondary education. In practice, examination performance is the dominant criterion in the allocation process, with virtually all the highest placing students entering scientific, academic, and industrial specializations. Students who do less well on the examination tend to be assigned to vocational specializations according to a prestige hierarchy of specializations which ranks industrial training most highly and agricultural training at the bottom. This process is inefficient because it fails to account for different aptitudes of students and because it results in training some students in specializations in which they are unlikely to work. It also unfairly discriminates against agriculture and other relatively undesired vocational specializations, perpetuating the undesirability of those occupations by ensuring that they receive the least qualified and least motivated candidates. The MOE acknowledges the deficiency of the current student allocation process, and is developing aptitude tests to provide an additional, useful criterion to guide the assignment of secondary students. Although the prestige ranking of occupations is a universal and slow-changing social phenomenon, the development of improved monitoring of employment prospects and improved student guidance activities would encourage the selection by students of secondary specializations that are more in line with their abilities, aptitudes, and employment prospects. TA to be provided under the proposed project (para. 2.10) and measures agreed at negotiations (paras. 2.11c and 5.01c) would materially improve the process for allocating students to secondary specializations. MOE Implementation Capability 1.14 The Government's sizeable program of expanded general and, especially, vocational education will require a significant strengthening of MOE capacities both to effectively execute the program and to assure the continuing job relevance of the expanded program of MOE vocational instruction. The proposed project would provide TA for this purpose (paras. 2.16 and 2.17). Assurances were obtained at negotiations that the Government would recruit the qualified additional MOE staff necessary to implement the planned expansion of school capacity (para. 5.01d). TA to be provided,under  the project (para. 2.10) and measures agreed at negotiations (paras. 2.11, 5.01a, 5.01b, and 5.01c) would also nelp to assure the continuing job relevance of the expanded program of vocational instruction. Bank Strategy and Lending for Education 1.15 The first IDA-assisted education project (Credit 285-JO approved in 1972 for US$5.4 million and completed in 1979) was designed to improve the quality of education and to address deficiencies in the supply of skilled manpower. Particular emphasis was given to vocational training for women to improve their employment potential. Tthe project was innovative and assisted in providing two comprehensive secondary schools, a polytechnic and teacher training center, a co-educational teacher training institute, training of agricultural teachers and TA for institutional support, curricula development and teacher training. A system to trace tne placement of graduates ot the project institutions was also developed and is operational. 1.16 The Project Performance Audit Report (No. 2494) for the first education project in Jordan stated that "the project has been catalytic in that it stimulated educational planning, the concept of diversification of secondary education, and the better integration of technical/vocational programs with the needs of the labor market. It has helped to develop project implementation capabilities and procedures." The recommendations in the project completion report have been adopted--namely, tne introduction of improved procurement procedures, better coordination of TA, more effective scheduling of required inputs and timing of implementation, and arrangements for training MOE staff in management and administration techniques. 1.17 Continuing this strategy, the second IDA project (Credit 534-JO approved in 1975 for US$6.0 million) has assisted in providing a polytechnic, 3 comprehensive secondary schools, extensions (workshops and laboratories) to 16 preparatory and secondary schools, a trade training center, a hotel training school and a rural development center, and includes appropriate TA for each component. Implementation of this project was completed satisfactorily in 1982 (Project Completion Report dated July 1982). 1.18 The third education project (Loan 1781-JO approved in 1979 for US$19.0 million) includes five comprehensive secondary schools, one pre-vocational teacher training institute, an extension to one secondary agricultural school, one community college, one training complex and eight mobile building maintenance units. The project also provides support to strengthen the planning and management capability of the MOE by providing a research and evaluation mechanism and a computerized management information system to be used as tools for planning and modern management. TA related to the project institutions and for project management support is being funded by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and executed by the Bank. Implementation of the project is proceeding satisfactorily.  - 8 - 1.19 The fourth project (Loan 2068-JO, approved in December 1981, for US$25 million) provides for the construction and equipping of four GVSSs (two for girls and two for boys), a trade training center, a nursing/paramedical institute, a third polytechnic institute, and a technical teacher training center attached to one of the existing IDA-supported polytechnics. In addition, the project provides for the conversion of two teacher training institutes into community colleges, and includes TA for these project components as well as for further curriculum refinement for the comprehensive secondary schools and polytechnics financed under the first three projects. 1.20 The proposed project, a Bank loan of US$18.8 million, is tightly focussed and would continue the thrust of the first four Bank Group's education projects upon increasing the supply of well-trained skilled workers to meet manpower needs both within and outside Jordan. The project consists entirely of repeater items. Continuing the support provided under the fourth project, it would include 15 of the 23 new GVSSs programmed in the 1981-85 Development Plan. In addition, it would promote regional equity by supporting the extension of preparatory and secondary schooling for students from the most remote areas, areas with very limited school resources beyond the primary level. This component would be a pilot project for a new centralized secondary school format which the Government intends to develop to reach the remaining areas of the country which lack access to education beyond the primary level. Although new in format, the centralized schools would retain elements of earlier Bank Group-supported comprehensive secondary schools. The proposed project also continues and extends the TA provided under earlier projects to strengthen the MOE. Support would be provided in two vital areas. reinforcing the implementation capability of the MOE Directorate of Projects, and developing the mechanisms necessary to assure the continuing job relevance of MOE's expanding program of secondary vocational education. II. THE PROJECT Objectives and Scope 2.01 The proposed project would assist the Government in implementing priority programs which are fully consistent with its educational development plan (1981-85) and strategy. Tne major objectives of the project are; (a) to increase the output of skilled female and male workers, in conformity with the demand for this level of manpower; and (b) to improve access to preparatory and secondary education in remote rural areas. In addition, the project would contribute to the institutional development of the MOE, already begun under the earlier projects in the areas of curriculum development, tracer studies and information management, through substantial strengthening of the MOE Directorate of Projects and other MOE directorates in the area of project preparation and implementation.  2.02 The project would include the provision of: (a) construction, equipment, and furniture for; Estimated Institution Grades Enrollments Annual Output 10 general vocational secondary schools (girls) 10-12 3,840 1,440 5 general vocational secondary schools (ooys) 10-12 3,940 1,440 3 centralized secondary schools for boys (with boarding for 1260 students) 7-12 2,520 840 of which: total preparatory components 7-9 1,440 480 total secondary components 10-12 1,080 360 (b) TA related to training of instructors and directors for the above project institutions (114 man-months of fellowships and study visits and 9 man-months of specialist services); and (c) TA related to: (i) strengthening the MOE Directorate of Projects in project preparation and implementation (14 man-months of fellowships plus 3 man-months of specialist services); (ii) strengtnening MOE capacity to implement projects, to expand its limited existing program of practical job experience for secondary students, to reinforce its program of career guidance and extend it to preparatory school students, and to implement regional manpower planning and tracer studies as an instrument for continuous monitoring of employment prospects (64 man-months of fellowships and study visits plus 11 man-months of specialist services); and (iii) preinvestment work for a possible follow-up project (6 man-months of consultant services). General Vocational Secondary Schools (GVSSs) 2.03 This proposed component would assist the Government to train skilled workers in priority areas (para. 1.11) through provision of construction, furniture, equipment, and TA for 15 GVSSs--10 for girls and 5 for boys. It would also promote female labor-force participation by preparing girl students for productive work in occupations which offer the best prospects for female employment. Like the 4 GVSSs being provided under the fourth project, the 15  - 10 - GVSSs in the proposed project would combine in a single institution programs formerly provided in separate secondary schools of industry, commerce, agriculture, and nursing. This consolidation of specialized training courses into a single institution allows for improved efficiency of administration and instructional services, achieved in part through more intensive use of teaching equipment and classroom/workshop space. Classrooms in the GVSSs would operate on a single, daytime shift, and would be used by the MOE in the evening for adult education and in-service teacher training. GVSS workshops would operate on two shifts. A secondary education reform currently under consideration by the National Board of Education may eventually lead to tfhese and other GVSSs serving as centralized vocational schools for students from surrounding general secondary schools, thereby using the proposed GVSS workshop facilities even more intensively. 2.04 The GVSSs would offer a combination of three-year secondary courses and two-year trade training courses in specializations selected according to employment prospects, alternative training facilities, and availability of students in the respective areas where the schools would be situated. Other than their different subjects of specialization, the three-year courses differ from the two-year courses in that they offer about three times as many classroom hours in general education. The 10 girls' GVSSs would offer three-year courses in business and nursing, and two-year courses in dressmaking and cosmetology--fields for which tracer study results and other information show strong prospects for female employment. About one-quarter of the projected 3,840 enrollment in the 10 girls' GVSSs would be in tne two-year course. A total of nine industrial specializations would be offered by the boys' GVSSs--electrical utilization, industrial electronics, auto mechanics, instrumentation, central heating and plumbing, farm machinery, carpentry, welding and sheet metal, and construction. These specializations are similar to those offered in the two boys' GVSSs supported under the fourth education project. Different combinations of industrial specializations would be offered by each of the boys' schools, depending upon regional employment needs. Each of the five boys' GVSSs would offer four of the nine industrial specializations, both in a three-year secondary and a two-year trade training format, as well as a three-year business program. In addition, the three boys' GVSSs in rural areas would offer three-year agricultural programs. The agricultural program in two of the schools would focus on plant production; the other would focus on food processing. One of the boys' schools would also offer a postal specialization. These specializations to be offered by the boys' GVSSs have been identified by the Government as the most urgent areas for industrial training to meet manpower needs both in Jordan and in tne region. About 80% of the 3,940 total students in the boys' GVSSs would be enrolled in the three-year secondary program with the balance in the two-year trade training program. Two-thirds of the students in the boys' GVSSs would be enrolled in one of the industrial specializations to be offered by the schools. 2.05 The average enrollment of the girls' GVSSs is half tnat of the GVSSs for boys. The smaller size and greater dispersion of the girls' sohools is designed to facilitate girls' school attendance and subsequent employment by situating the schools closer to their homes than would be possible with larger, more concentrated facilities. In the two boys' GVSSs which are to offer a plant production specialization, the combination of the agricultural program in the same facility with other vocational specializations continues the Government's recent policy decision to move away from the former practice of providing secondary agricultural instruction in large, isolated facilities.  - 11 - By offering agricultural training in diversified vocational institutions in rural settings, the Government seeks to improve the quality ana motivation of agricultural students, and to increase the likelihood that agricultural graduates will practice farming. 2.06 Curricula for the 15 GVSSs, which would be the same as those to be used for the fourth project GVSSs, have been reviewed by the Bank and the National Board of Education and judged satisfactory. Students are to begin their vocational specializations from the start of the GVSS program. For most of the 18 specializations to be offered by the schools, the mix of courses remains the same during the two- or three-year course of studies. Students in the three-year secondary courses are to have about 13 hours of academic instruction per week, 8 hours of classroom instruction related to their vocational specialization, and 18 hours of workshop instruction. By comparison, students in the two-year trade training courses have less academic instruction--about five hours per week, the same amount of trade-related classroom instruction, and more workshop instruction--about 24 hours per week. Altnough the two-year trade training courses and the three-year secondary vocational courses provide virtually the same programs of vocational instruction, the latter are designed to produce graduates with more flexible work capacity because of the supplementary general instruction which students receive in the three-year program. 2.07 Sites for the proposed 15 GVSSs have been selected uy the MOE Planning and Research Department through a comprehensive school mapping exercise which takes into account projected graduates from preparatory schools in the GVSSs' respective catchment areas, as well as students from other secondary schools in those areas. The sites for the scnools are distributed throughout the five governorates which comprise the East Bank, ranging from Irbid governorate in the North (four schools) to Maan governorate in the South (one school). Four of the five proposed GVSSs for boys are located in rural areas--including the two schools which would offer a plant production specialization. The fifth boys' GVSS would be near Amman. The sites for five of the proposed girls' GVSSs are in rural areas; the five others are in the greater Amman area. Staff housing for the principal and six teachers would be provided in the 10 proposed GVSSs whose sites are remote from major urban areas and where adequate teacher housing, especially for married teaching staff, is likely to be very limited. Although it would accommodate only half of the teachers in the institutions for which housing is to be provided, the availability of some teacher housing is expected to be an important inducement for attracting qualified vocational teachers to the GVSSs. Student housing would not be provided in the GVSSs, because school sites have been chosen so as to permit students to walk to school or to use public transportation. 2.08 The 450 teachers (150 for general subjects and 300 for vocational subjects) required to staff the proposed GVSSs would be recruited from several sources, which are fully adequate to meet the needs of the GVSSs. The general subject teachers would be recruited from the graduates of the University of Jordan, Yarmouk University, and the community colleges. Most of tne industrial teachers for the boys' GVSSs would be drawn from the technical teacher training program being developed at Marka Polytechnic under the fourth education project. The projected output from this program, totalling 300 teachers per year beginning in 1986, will be sufficient to meet the teacher requirements in all of the industrial specializations to be offered in the  - 12 - proposed boys' GVSSs. Teachers for the nursing program in the girls' GVSSs would be recruited from the graduates of the existing post-secondary nursing programs of the Ministry of Health, the University of Jordan and, beginning in 1986, the Nursing/Paramedical Integrated Training Institute which is being developed by the Ministry of Health under the fourth education project. Teachers for the business and postal specializations of the boys' and girls' GVSSs would be drawn from the University of Jordan, the Amman Teacher Training Institute, the Princess Alia Teacher Training Institute, and the several community colleges which offer courses in business, accounting, and commercial subjects. Teachers for the agricultural specialization in the boys' GVSSs would be recruited principally from the graduates of the Faculty of Agriculture program at the University of Jordan. Teachers for the dressmaking and cosmetology specializations in the girls' GVSSs would be recruited from the fellows scheduled to receive training abroad in those specializations under the fourth education project TA component. In addition, TA would be provided under the proposed project to send the chief instructors in each specialization on study visits or fellowships abroad to guide them in setting up the vocational programs in the proposed GVSSs. 2.09 The 7,780 places in the proposed project vocational schools would play a key role in achieving the Government's quantitative goal for expanding secondary vocational education. Together with the increased capacity which will result from completion of the secondary vocaC4onal components of the third and fourth education projects, they would comprise 52% of the projected increase in secondary vocational enrollments by 1987--from 17,242 in 1981/82 to 44,000 in 1987/88. At the same time, they would contribute to a doubling of the vocational share of secondary enrollments, from 16% in 1981/82 to 32% in 1987/88. 2.10 In order to be effective, the rapid expansion of vocational training capacity which the proposed GVSSs would support will require special efforts by the MOE to ensure the continuing job relevance of GVSS training programs. The evidence available from tracer studies, from the recent study of manpower demand carried out as part of the Bank's review of the 1981-85 Development Plan, and from other sources establishes the prospective manpower demand for the graduates of each of the vocational programs to be offered by the 15 GVSSs in the proposed project. However, to assure that the graduates of these programs continue to be employable, it is essential that students be provided with practical job experience as part of the secondary vocational education program and that employment prospects be continuously monitored in order to provide prompt feedback on changing employment prospects for each specialization--information which is to be used to maintain an appropriate enrollment mix of vocational specializations offered in the project vocational schools, and to counsel preparatory school students who are selecting a vocational specialization for secondary studies. Accordingly, the proposed project includes TA to the MOE for three activities of central importance to employability of GVSS graduates; (a) to expand and strengthen the existing limited MOE program of practical work experience for vocational secondary students during school vacations (two two-month study visits, plus nine expert man-months);  - 13 - (b) to strengthen career guidance in the MOE at the preparatory level as an input to selection of secondary vocational specializations (9-month fellowship); and (c) to reinforce tracer study capacity and to develop a capacity for regional manpower planning in the MOE as an instrument for continuous monitoring of employment prospects (18 months of fellowships plus two expert man-months). 2.11 The Government will also adopt several specific measures to assure the continuing job relevance of MOE secondary vocational instruction. These measures, agreed at negotiations, include; (a) providing supervised job experience for students in all the MOE GVSSs by the time the project GVSSs are operational as a means of maximizing the relevance of GVSS vocational instruction to Jordan's employment needs (para 5.01a); (b) extending the existing tracer study system to include the 15 project GVSSs and furnishing to the Bank annual reports on the results of these studies for five years following the first output of these schools, and strengtnening the MOE's existing tracer study capacity by assigning to its tracer study unit by December 31, 1983 a statistician with adequate experience in statistical survey methods and analysis in order to assess the effectiveness of secondary vocational training in relation to labor market needs (para. 5.01b); and (c) providing career guidance counseling for preparatory scnool students. This measure, which would improve the process for allocating students to secondary school specializations, particularly in vocational areas, would be put into effect by the time the project GVSSs are operational (para. 5.01c). Centralized Preparatory/Secondary Schools 2.12 This component would help finance construction, equipment, and furniture for the establishment of three pilot centralized schools for boys combining the preparatory (grades 7-9) and secondary (grades 10-12) cycles. The new schools would support the Government's effort to improve access to further education for graduates of primary schools in remote rural areas in the North (Irbid governorate), South (Maan governorate), and East (eastern Amman governorate). The innovative aspect of the proposed centralized schools is the combination of preparatory and general secondary programs in a single institution with boarding facilities for students from surrounding communities too small and too dispersed to justify separate post-primary schools. The proposed project schools would replace a number of improvised and educationally inadequate preparatory and general secondary classrooms housed  - 14 - in existing primary schools, and would provide additional student places required to bring the low level of school attendance in those areas--estimated at 70% in preparatory and 30% in secondary--closer to the national average enrollment rates of 91% and 66%, respectively. Based on the experience of the proposed pilot centralized schools, the Government intends to establish additional centralized schools to serve other remote areas of the country. 2.13 The curriculum for the proposed schools, which has been reviewed and approved by the National Board of Education and the Bank, would be the same as that used in other MOE preparatory and general secondary schools. The MOE preparatory curriculum includes two hours per week of prevocational activities in which students are provided with a general vocational orientation through guided practical work in schools' vocational workshops. Prevocational activities are divided into several subject "clusters," which include environment and energy studies; industrial activities (metalcraft, woodworking, electricity, home repair); agricultural activities; commerce and management activities; hygiene, safety and nutrition; family life and social relations; and housekeeping activities. Preparatory prevocational instruction in the proposed centralized schools would take place in more basic workshop facilities than those to be used by the secondary students in the schools. Prevocational instruction at the secondary level consists of from four to six hours per week of instruction in a single vocational option selected by students at the start of the tenth grade. Each of the centralized schools in the proposed project would provide three or four vocational options, taking into consideration local as well as national manpower needs. The vocational specializations to be offered by the schools include electricity, woodwork, metalwork, agriculture and commercial subjects. Although the proposed centralized schools are new in format, past Bank lending has supported the same program of prevocational-cum-general instruction in separate preparatory and secondary institutions; the second education project (1975) supported workshop additions to existing MOE preparatory schools and three new comprehensive schools which incorporate prevocational instruction; the third education project (1979) is helping to finance three additional comprehensive secondary schools and conversion of two other secondary schools. Those components of the second education project have been completed satisfactorily, and the prevocational instruction programs in those institutions have proved themselves satisfactory. 2.14 The locations and sizes of the proposed schools have been determined by the MOE's Planning and Research Department on the basis of a detailed school mapping exercise. Total enrollments in the three centralized schools, which are to operate on a double-shift basis, would be 2,520. Boarding facilities would be provided for the 1,260 students who would come from communities more than ten miles distant from the schools. About half of the 2,520 student places would initially be filled by students relocated from improvised preparatory and secondary facilities attached to existing primary schools. In the case of MOE-owned schools, these vacated student places would be used exclusively for primary school students, whose numbers are annually increasing. Rented facilities would either not nave their leases renewed, or would be used to accommodate expanded primary enrollments. The total annual output of the preparatory section of the three schools would be about 480--compared to the present number of 270 in the classes to be replaced--and the annual output of the secondary section of these schools would be about 360--compared to only 50 in the present classes to be replaced by the project schools.  - 15 - 2.15 The schools would require a total staff of 100 teachers, about half of whom are expected to come from the classes to be relocated trom inadequate facilities. In principle, an adequate number of teachers is fully available from the graduate outputs of the community colleges and universities, but the lack of adequate housing near the schools could be a serious obstacle to teacher recruitment. For this reason, and to assure adequate supervision ot the boarding students, the project would include housing for school directors and all teaching staff. The project would also make available to each of the three school directors a three-month study tour to examine the administration and operation of similar instructional programs abroad. MOE Institution Building 2.16 Continuing the support already provided in the areas of curriculum development and information management under the third and fourth education projects, the proposed project would make a significant contribution to MOE institutional development in two important areas. The first of these is assessing the continuing job relevance of MOE secondary vocational instruction through a strengthening of the MOE practical work experience program, as well as a reinforcement of MOE capacity to carry out career guidance, tracer studies, and regional manpower planning. Technical assistance to be provided under the project (para. 2.10) and measures agreed at negotiations (para. 2.11) would help to assure the continuing job relevance of the expanding program of MOE secondary vocational instruction. Technical assistance would also be available for preinvestment work for a possible follow-up project. 2.17 The second area in which the proposed project would promote MOE institutional development is reinforcing MOE's implementation capacity. This reinforcement is necessary both to carry out the Government's program for expanded vocational and general education, and to achieve improved efficiency and unified standards of preparation for all MOE schools. The proposed project would reinforce MOE's implementation capacity by providing an expert in layout of workshop equipment and fellowships for upgrading MOE staff in procurement procedures, preparation of visual aids for vocational instruction, development and application of standard architectural design elements, school location planning, technical assistance management, records management, and techniques of in-service and industrial education. In addition, the Government would strengthen the implementation capacity of the MOE's Directorate of Projects by assigning to that Directorate by December 31, 1983 the following additional qualified staff: two procurement officers, two accountants, two quantity surveyors, an experienced architect and an experienced engineer (para. 5.01d).  - 16 - III. PROJECT COST, FINANCING, LIMPLEMENTATION AND DISBURSEMENTS Project Cost 3.01 Summaries of Cost. The total cost of the project is estimated at JD 30.8 million or US$88.9 million equivalent. The breakdown by component project items is summarized below by groups of items, with the foreign and local cost elements of each: Table 3.1 Project Costs - By Component Items JD (millions) US$ (millions) % of Item Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Base Cost Physical Facilities: (Construction, equipment, furniture and architectural services); 10 general vocational secondary schools for girls 3.75 4.09 7.84 10.83 11.83 22.66 35.3% 5 general vocational secondary schools for boys 3.58 3.92 7.50 10.36 11.32 21.68 33.8% 3 centralized secondary schools for boys 3.34 3.18 6.52 9.65 9.20 18.85 29.4% Sub-total 10.67 11.19 21.86 30.84 32.35 63.19 98.5% Technical Assistance: Specialists' services 0.01 0.09 0.10 0.03 0.25 0.28 0.5% Fellowships 0.02 0.21 0.23 0.06 0.61 0.67 1.0% Sub-total 0.03 0.30 0.33 0.09 0.86 0.95 1.5% Base Cost (mid-1982 prices) 10.70 11.49 22.19 30.93 33.21 64.14 100.0% Contingencies: Physical 1.07 1.14 2.21 3.09 3.28 6.37 9.9% Price increase 3.24 3.11 6.35 9.37 8.99 18.36 28.6% Sub-total 4.31 4.25 8.56 12.46 12.27 24.73 38.5% Total Estimated Project Cost 15.01 15.74 30.75 43.39 45.48 88.87  - 17 - 3.02 The estimated project costs by categories of expenditure are summarized below: Table 3.2 Project Costs - By Category of Expenditure JD (millions) US$ (milLions) % oaI Category Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Base Cost Construction; Buildings: Academic and Communal 5.87 5.70 11.57 16.96 16.48 33.44 52.1% Boarding 0.81 0.70 1.51 2.34 2.02 4.36 6.8% Staff Housing 0.91 0.81 1.72 2.63 2.34 4.97 7.8% All Buildings 7.59 7.21 14.80 21.93 20.84 42.77 66.7% Site Development 1.02 0.47 1.49 2.95 1.36 4.31 6.7% Buildings and Site Development 8.61 7.68 16.29 24.88 22.20 47.08 73.4% Architectural Services 1.36 0.18 1.54 3.94 0.51 4.45 6.9% Sub-total 9.97 7.86 17.83 28.82 22.71 51.53 80.3% Furniture 0.45 0.78 1.23 1.31 2.26 3.57 5.6% Equipment 0.25 2.55 2.80 0.71 7.38 8.09 12.6% Technical Assistance 0.03 0.30 0.33 0.09 0.86 0.95 1.5% Base Cost (mid-1982 prices) 10.70 11.49 22.19 30.93 33.21 64.14 100.0% Contingencies 4.31 4.25 8.56 12.46 12.27 24.73 38.5% Total Estimated Project Cost 15.01 15.74 30.75 43.39 45.48 88.87 A summary presentation of estimated project costs both by component items and by categories of expenditure appears in Annex 1. 3.03 Bases of Cost Estimates. Construction cost estimates are the products of: (a) functional accommodation schedules based on educational specifications appropriate to relevant teaching programs, and (b) current unit building costs  - 18 - based on recent contracts for similar standards of construction in corresponding facilities, with adjustments for regional cost differences. The latter costs per square meter of gross construction area, which average US$420 equivalent, are reasonable for the utilitarian standards of construction allowed for--and are below the median construction costs for comparabie Bank-assisted school construction in other countries (i.e., US$450 equivalent--at mid-1980 prices--which would now be higher). Costs for professional architectural services reflect the current scale of fees established for services provided by local architectural firms. 3.04 Estimated equipment costs are products of; (a) lists reviewed during appraisal, and (b) current CIF unit prices adjusted to include local transportation costs and, where appropriate, installation costs. Furniture estimates reflect percentages of construction costs represented by the relationship between furniture and construction costs experienced for similar institutions in ongoing education projects in Jordan. 3.05 Estimated technical assistance costs, which draw on recent experience, average; US$11,000 and US$6,000 equivalent per man-month for expatriate and local specialists services, respectively, inclusive of salary, fee, overhead, international travel and subsistance. Overseas fellowship training is estimated to cost US$3,500 per man-month, inclusive of international travel. 3.06 Customs Duties and Taxes. Project cost estimates do not include any import duties or taxes. The amounts of duties paid on building materials imported by building contractors are not accurately identifiable. Equipment and goods imported for use by Government ministries are exempt from duties. 3.07 Unit Areas and Unit Costs. As indicated by the table in Annex 2, the construction areas and costs per student place and housing unit represented by the cost estimates compare favorably with those for comparable facilities in other Bank-assisted education projects. 3.08 Contingency Allowances. The project cost estimates include contingency allowances for; (a) physical factors, equivalent to 10% of the estimated base costs of construction, professional services, furniture and equipment and 5% (for "planning" or "design" uncertainties) of estimated technical assistance costs; and for (b) price escalation covering the periods from appraisal to points of forecast expenditure--in accordance with an appropriate implementation schedule (Annex 4) at the following escalation rates: 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 Foreign costs 8.0% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.0% Local costs 9.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% At these rates, costs are expected to increase during the project implementation period by averages of about; 27% for building work and site  - 19 - development; 26% for architectural services; 26% for furniture; 24% for equipment; 19% for specialists' services; and 27% for fellowship training (Annex 3). Accordingly, aggregate price increases are estimated at about 26% of base costs plus the physical contingency allowance. Together, physical plus price increases account for 28% of the total estimated project cost, and 39% of base cost. 3.09 Foreign Exchange Component. The estimated foreign exchange component of US$45.5 million, representing 51% of estimated total project costs, has been calculated on the basis of estimated foreign exchange proportions of 47% of base costs for construction and site development, 11% for architectural services, 63% for furniture, 91% for equipment, and 91% for technical assistance. The foreign exchange proportions used to estimate project costs are based on the assumptions that. (a) approximately 60% of construction contracts would be awarded to local firms; (b) architectural services will be entirely local; (c) while most furniture contracts would be awarded to local firms, materials used must, nevertheless, be largely imported; and (d) most equipment would be directly imported. Financial Plan 3.10 The proposed loan of US$18.8 million would finance the toreign exchange costs of; (a) constructing, furnishing and equipping the boys' centralized secondary schools; (b) equipping the vocational secondary scnools for girls; and (c) architectural services and technical assistance for all project institutions. It would cover about 21% of the total estimated project costs. The Saudi Fund is expected to finance the local and foreign exchange cost of constructing the 8 vocational secondary schools which are located in the Amman/Salt area. Because of its magnitude in the proposed project, signature of an agreement for co-financing of the project by the Saudi Fund is to be a condition for effectiveness of the proposed loan (para. 5.02). The British Overseas Development Administration (ODA) has proposed to finance