Cameroon - Third Douala Port Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-3483-CM REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN IN AN AMOUNT EQUIVALENT TO US$22.5 MILLION TO THE NATIONAL PORT AUTHORITY OF CAMEROON FOR THE THIRD DOUALA PORT PROJECT March 10, 1983 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the perTsrmance-aft their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. 1  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit CFA Franc (CFAF) US$1 = CFAF 340 a/ CFAF 1 million = US$2,941 a/ Floating exchange rate. The CFA Franc (CFAF) is tied to the French Franc (FF) at the ratio of FF 1 to CFAF 50. ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ALUCAM - Aluminum Company of Cameroon MINE - Ministry of Equipment MINEP - Ministry of Economic Affairs and Planning MOT - Ministry of Transport NPA - National Port Authority (Office National des Ports du Cameroun) REGIFERCAM - National Railroad Company of Cameroon (Regie Nationale des Chemins de Fer du Cameroun) FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY UNITED REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON THIRD PORT PROJECT LOAN AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower and National Port Authority of Cameroon (NPA) Beneficiary: Guarantor: United Republic of Cameroon Amount: US$22.5 million, including capitalized front-end fee of US$0.2 million. Terms: 20 years, including a five year grace period, at the standard variable interest rate. Project Description: The proposed project would be the Bank's third port project aimed chiefly at (i) increasing capacity in line with rapid traffic growth, (ii) modernizing and increasing efficiency of port facilities, and (iii) improving further operations and management at the Port of Douala, Cameroon's principal port. The proposed project, to be implemented over approximately five years, would consist of the following main components: (i) Civil Works for Port Extension: (a) construction of one 200 m long container berth and two 200 m long multi-purpose berths; (b) construction of a warehouse; and (c) construction of access roads and a railway spur. (ii) Port Equipment: (a) Mobile conveyors; (b) a tugboat; and (c) buoyage and electronic positioning equipment. (iii) Data Processing for NPA: (a) a central data processing unit and auxiliary equipment; and (b) technical assist- ance for data processing planning and software for management and technical operations. (iv) Technical Assistance for NPA involving consulting services for: (a) supervision of construction; (b) establishment of a staff evaluation and incentives system; (c) manpower planning and personnel admini- stration; (d) organization and establishment of a records office; (e) study of the port subsector; and (f) study of dredging and navigability requirements of the Port of Douala. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  - ii - Benefits and Risks: The project would (i) reduce ship waiting times for general cargo due to increased port capacity; (ii) reduce service times for reefer ships; and (iii) increase export earnings and farm income through higher benefits to fruit producers and exporters. Non-quantifiable benefits include improved working conditions for dock workers and elimination of exposure of reefer vessels to clinker dust. Moreover, the project would continue to improve NPA's organization and help increase the efficiency of port operations and management. Finally, neighboring landlocked least developed countries depending on the port of Douala for overseas shipments would also benefit from its improvement. The project has no major or unusual risks. Estimated Costs: Local Foreign Total -------US$ million------- 1. Civil works 4.9 8.4 13.3 2. Fruit Handling Equipment 0.1 0.8 0.9 3. Tugboat - 3.0 3.0 4. Consultants 0.7 1.6 2.3 5. Data Processing Equipment - 0.8 0.8 6. Technical Assistance for Data Processing Equipment 0.2 0.8 1.0 7. Buoyage & Electronic Positioning Equipment - 0.7 0.7 Total Base Cost 5.9 16.1 22.0 Physical Contingencies 0.7 1.8 2.5 Price Contingencies 3.9 4.4 8.3 Cost (Net of Taxes) 1/ 10.5 22.3 32.8 Front End Fee on Bank Loan - 0.2 0.2 Total Financing Required 10.5 22.5 33.0 Financing Plan: Local Foreign Total --------US$ million------- IBRD - 22.5 22.5 NPA 10.5 - 10.5 10.5 22.5 33.0 1/ The project is exempted from taxes and duties.  - iii - Estimated Disbursements from the IBRD loan: FY84 FY85 FY86 FY87 FY88 FY89 -----------------US$ million---------------- Annual 4.9 4.8 3.9 4.6 3.6 0.7 Cumulative 4.9 9.7 13.6 18.2 21.8 22.5 Rate of Return: 28 percent Staff Appraisal Report: No. 3803-CM dated March 10, 1983 Maps: IBRD 15995 - Project Location IBRD 15996R1 - Downstream Port Extension  I I  INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION, OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE NATIONAL PORT AUTHORITY OF CAMEROON FOR THE THIRD DOUALA PORT PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed loan to the National Port Authority of Cameroon for the equivalent of US$22.5 million with a term of 20 years, including five years of grace, at the standard variable interest rate to help finance the Third Douala Port Project. The Government of the United Republic of Cameroon will serve as guarantor for the loan. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. A report entitled "United Republic of Cameroon--Economic Memorandum" (No. 2877-CM), was distributed to the Executive Directors on April 30, 1980. Since then, three economic missions, as well as a number of sector missions, have visited Cameroon. Their major findings are incorporated in the following paragraphs. Annex I provides basic country data. Background 3. Cameroon has a population of 8.9 million and covers an area of 475,000 km2. It is one of Africa's most diverse countries, with a wide range of climatic zones, ecological conditions, population densities, ethnic groups and traditional cultures. Its main opportunities for development lie in the expansion of agricultural, livestock, and forestry production; the exploitation of energy and mineral resources; and the processing of agricul- tural, forestry and mineral products for domestic consumption and export. Cameroon became an oil producer in 1978 and is estimated to have produced some 6 million tons of crude petroleum in 1982. In 1981, Cameroon began producing refined petroleum products. 4. Cameroon's main economic centers are separated by large areas of low population density, and the country's port facilities and transport network also serve landlocked Chad and the Central African Republic. Adequate port and trunk transportation systems are essential for promoting agriculture, forestry and industry, and for strengthening internal and external communica- tions. With the growth of manufacturing industry, government, transport, construction and services, Cameroon is becoming increasingly urban. About 35 percent of the population now live in towns, with the heaviest concentrations in Douala, the major port and industrial center, and Yaounde, the capital. 1/ The text of this section is substantially the same as in the President's Report for the Urban Development Project which was distributed to the Executive Directors on February 24, 1983.  5. Cameroon subscribes to a philosophy of "planned liberalism" and the country's economic development has been pursued within a five-year investment planning framework. The Fourth Plan period ended in June, 1981, and the Fifth Plan (1981-86) is now in effect. Cameroon's macro-economic policies have been cautious and the Government has concentrated on fostering a sense of national unity among the different regions of the country. Thus, while until the second half of the 70's growth was comparatively moderate, the country has enjoyed exceptional economic and social stability. 6. Growth. Over the past fifteen years, Cameroon has experienced accelerating output and population growth. Real annual GDP growth during the Second Plan Period (1966-71) averaged 4.2 percent; in the Third (1971-76), 4.5 percent; and in the Fourth (1976-81), an estimated 7 to 8 percent. Population growth in the three periods was, respectively, about 1.8, 1.9 and 2.3 percent a year. Per capita GNP rose between 1966 and 1980 at an annual rate of about 3.1 percent. 7. Investment and Savings. Underlying the longer term rise in GDP growth have been rising proportions of investment. The investment/GDP ratio averaged over 15 percent during the Second Plan, close to 20 percent during the Third, and about 23 percent during the Fourth. Despite rising investment/ GDP ratios, the mobilization of domestic savings more than kept pace, due largely to increased public savings. Gross domestic savings rose from about 84 percent of total investment under the Second and Third Plans to about 94 percent during the Fourth Plan. After allowing for net factor service and current transfers and the amortization of foreign lcans, reliance on foreign financing fell from about 33 percent of total investment during 1966-71 to about 30 percent during 1976-79. 8. Public Finance. Budgetary revenues amounted to about 15 percent of GDP during the Second and Third Plans but increased to close to 17 percent during the Fourth Plan. Public savings after debt service declined from about 39 percent of total public investment during the Second Plan to about 36 percent during the Third; however, they rebounded to 55 percent during 1976-79, thanks to substantial contributions from the agricultural export stabilization funds. 9. Balance of Payments. Overall, the balance of payments has not posed particular problems, apart from some short-term deterioration during the 1974-76 period. In 1977-80, exports rose substantially (at an average annual rate of 26 percent), but imports also increased (at an average annual rate of 20 percent) because of more rapid economic growth and higher investment. International reserves were rebuilt in 1976-80, rising in 1980 to a gross level equivalent to about seven weeks of imports. This was low by interna- tional standards, although still acceptable given Cameroon's membership in the Central African Monetary Union. Since late 1980, Cameroon's official reserve position has fluctuated, reflecting variations in short-term capital transac- tions.  - 3- Development Prospects and Issues 10. Short- and Medium-term Developments. Oil production is having a significant impact on the Cameroonian economy. Historically, Cameroon has been dependent on the export of agricultural products for the bulk (72 percent in 1978) of its export earnings. Cocoa and coffee alone accounted for 53 percent of the value of 1978 exports. However, oil exports, which represented about 1 percent of total exports in 1978, had risen to an estimated 63 percent in 1982, with the share of agricultural products as a result dropping to about 28 percent. Exports of oil have continued to rise in 1983, further reducing the proportional importance of agricultural exports. The structure of output is also changing, with production of the agricultural sector falling from 32 to 26 percent of GDP between 1978-1981, and oil production rising from less than a half to over 11 percent. 11. The Government is nonetheless projecting significantly rising agricultural production in the years ahead. Its targets for the Fifth Plan period are based on 3 percent annual increases in cocoa output; 5 percent for robusta coffee; and 7 percent for arabica coffee; increased production of food and other crops, as well as livestock; and expansion of forestry produc- tion. An impact on the structure of the economy is expected from the Fifth Plan under which the proposed investment/GDP ratio is 23 percent. The Plan stresses increased support to agriculture and expansion of the supply of technical and professional manpower, while energy, mining and industry are to receive diminished emphasis. However, apart from appearing ambitious, the Government's targets, especially for agricultural production and invest- ment, are not based on explicit identification of the probable patterns of hydrocarbons development and oil revenue-use and are, therefore, subject to more than the usual margin of uncertainty. The projected annual GDP growth rate of 7 percent over the Fifth Plan period is in line with estimated recent growth in the 7 to 8 percent range and appears comfortably attainable. 12. Longer-Term Developments. Cameroon's promising potential in areas outside agriculture implies a longer-term structural shift towards a more diverse industrial base, with expanded mining, manufacturing, power and service sectors. Agriculture will probably play a still critical but less dominant socio-economic role; within agriculture, a gradual shift in the composition of output towards increased food production for the growing urban population appears likely. External Borrowing and Creditworthiness 13. Total public external debt outstanding and disbursed rose from US$514 million at the end of 1976 to US$2.0 billion at the end of 1981. Debt service payments rose from US$39 million in 1976 to US$200 million in 1981, while exports increased from US$770 million to about US$2.2 billion during the same period. Notwithstanding a hardening of average loan terms in the 1970s, Cameroon's debt service ratio was still about 9.1 percent in 1981 and is projected to stay in the 12 to 14 percent range throughout this decade. Borrowing on non-concessionary terms is expected to account for about two- thirds of total new commitments and average terms are expected to harden  - 4 - during the period. Because of higher debt service payments, projected net disbursements will probably be less than in the past but, with Cameroon's favorable export and savings prospects, are expected to be sufficient to allow an investment rate above 25 percent of GDP, as well as the maintenance of a strong foreign reserve position. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN CAMEROON 1/ 14. Bank and IDA commitments in Cameroon as of September 30, 1982, amounted to US$746.2 million and covered 41 projects: 19 in agriculture, 12 in transportation, 3 in education, 3 in public utilities, 2 small- and medium-scale enterprise projects and 2 technical assistance projects. Transport and agriculture each account for about 40 percent of these commit- ments. IFC has invested in five enterprises, with total net loan and equity commitments of US$12.7 million. Annex II contains a summary statement of Bank loans, IDA credits and IFC investments as of September 30, 1982, including notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 15. Although implementation delays and setbacks have occasionally been encountered, the Government has consistently shown willingness to collaborate with the Bank in finding solutions. In the past, Cameroon's disbursement rate compared very favorably with that of most other countries. Recently, however, performance has deteriorated somewhat, apparently partly symptomatic of admin- istrative difficulties, notably in the central procurement agency. Several steps, including the provision of technical support to expedite procurement procedures, are underway to improve the situation. 16. The Bank's initial investment strategy in Cameroon was to support the Government's development efforts in three main directions: (i) strength- ening and extending the road and rail trunk systems and improving the Port of Douala; (ii) raising agricultural output and exports; and (iii) improving education. Through 1975, apart from one water supply project, Bank lending was concentrated entirely in the transport, agriculture and education sectors. Since 1975, the Bank has diversified its lending, extending it into other areas, including forestry, small- and medium-scale industry, urban and tech- nical assistance. 17. For the future, projects are being prepared in agriculture, to extend rural development efforts and strengthen agricultural research, and in transport, to rehabilitate or expand the road system. Additional education/manpower and technical assistance projects are also planned, as well as further port, small- and medium-scale industry, urban, and water supply/sewerage projects. The Bank has carried out sector studies in energy, industry, telecommunications and health, and additional projects have been tentatively identified in these areas. The Bank's lending strategy is essen- tially determined by the country's growing need for project-related assistance, 1/ The text of this section is substantially the same as in the President's Report for the Urban Development Project which was distributed to the Executive Directors on February 24, 1983.  - 5 - its evident creditworthiness, and the need for the Bank to maintain an ade- quate overall and sectoral presence in order to remain a major source of macro-economic and sector policy advice. Thus, the trend towards further sectoral diversification of Bank lending, reflecting the growing complexity of Cameroon's development, will continue and the overall volume of lending will rise. 18. The Government's main current need is to convert the transient windfall of oil-augmented revenues into a permanent enhancement of national productivity and income. This will call for a strengthening of the Govern- ment's policy-formulating capabilities, the identification of economically sound development options, and the evolution and adoption of an explicit oil-revenue-use strategy to guide decision-making throughout the economy. Of particular importance will be sound decisions concerning the size and composi- tion of the domestic investment program and the identification and removal of the major development bottlenecks. 19. In response to Cameroon's changing needs, the Bank's economic and sector work program is now emphasizing a broadening of the macro-economic and sectoral policy dialogue with the Government and the implementation of an integrated program of technical assistance to the central and technical ministries. With regard to short- and medium-term policy options, the dialogue is expected to include: the pace and pattern of oil and gas development; the size and composition of the public investment program; improvements in resource allocation; the roles of the private and public sectors; technical and other skilled manpower constraints and needs; and Government administrative reform. The dialogue on longer-term issues will probably cover basic agricultural and industrial policy options and related manpower development needs. A study on agricultural policy options is nearing completion and will be discussed with the Government shortly. The Bank earlier completed a basic study of indus- trialization and incentives leading to the provision of technical assistance to strengthen the Government's capacity to analyze and reformulate industrial policies. Studies and dialogue on the role of the public sector in industrial development and on the framework of industrial, agricultural and housing financial intermediation are also planned. Donor Activities 20. Disbursements of official development assistance during the second half of the 1960s amounted to about US$45.0 million a year, mostly in the form of grants. France provided most of the assistance. In the 1970s, foreign aid increased to about US$90 million a year, with only one-fifth in the form of grants. Bank and IDA financing amounted to about 23 percent of total disburse- ments and the Bank Group became the major public donor. Bank Group lending to Cameroon has been closely coordinated with that of other donors; in 20 of the 41 Bank projects, joint or parallel financing was arranged and expanded cofinancing is being actively sought for several projects under consideration. 21. Cameroon is now borrowing increasingly from private sources; such borrowing rose to over 40 percent of external financing in 1975-79, from only 11 percent in 1967-69. Public external debt outstanding and disbursed as of  - 6 - December 31, 1981, amounted to US$2.0 billion, 8.2 percent of which was in the form of Bank loans and 8.5 percent in IDA credits. Bank loans in 1981 accounted for 7.8 percent of public external debt service and IDA credits for 3.2 percent. By 1985, Bank loans and IDA credits are projected to account for about 26 percent of debt outstanding and about 14 percent of debt service. PART III - THE TRANSPORT SECTOR Transport System 22. Cameroon's transport system is import/export oriented. The focal point of the network is Douala, the country's principal commercial center, main seaport, and site of the principal international airport. The main transport arteries are the Trans-Cameroon corridor to the North (Douala-Edea- Yaounde-Chad border) and the axis to the West (Douala-Bafoussam-Foumban). An efficient transport system is important for the country's economic development and regional integration, as well as for the transit traffic to and from the landlocked neighboring countries Chad and the Central African Republic. 23. The transport system consists of some 65,000 km of roads; 1,153 km of railway; one principal and three secondary seaports; one seasonal river port; and two international and 13 smaller domestic airports. 24. Douala, the main seaport and commercial center, handles about 90 percent of Cameroon's foreign and transit trade. Chad to the north east and increasingly Central African Republic to the east rely on Cameroon's transport system and on Douala port for access to the sea and to international markets. The port of Douala is managed by the National Port Authority of Cameroon, an autonomous public corporation. The fast rate of traffic growth at Douala port underscores the need for the Port Authority to further expand and upgrade port capacity as envisaged under the proposed project. 25. The railway and road system provide the most important transport links within and across Cameroon. Road transport is the dominant mode with a road network comprising 2,400 km of paved roads, 30,000 km of gravel and earth roads and 32,000 km of unclassified earth tracks. The density of the road network varies considerably throughout the country, with concen- tration in the economically active and more populated areas. Paved roads represent only four percent of the network, but carry nearly 50 percent of the road traffic. The classified road network has grown by about six percent per year since 1972 and continued growth and upgrading is envisaged. 26. The railway is operated by REGIFERCAM, an autonomous state agency. Despite growing traffic and periodic tariff increases, REGIFERCAM's operational deficit continues. However, with the assistance of the Bank and other donors REGIFERCAM is taking steps to upgrade its infrastructure and improve its operations, marketing and tariff policies that should in the longer term  - 7 - lead to improved financial performance. Meanwhile, the proposed realignment of the Trans-Cameroon railway line, together with the ongoing construction of the Douala-Yaounde road, should enhance inland transport links to Douala port. Transport Planning 27. The Government's principal objectives in the transport sector are to promote regional and foreign trade, improve access to agricultural areas and facilitate the marketing of foodcrop production. Under the Second and the Third Plans (1966-71 and 1971-76 respectively), high priority was given to establishing basic transport infrastructure, and transport sector investment amounted to 37 percent of total public investment under the Third Plan. Under the Fourth Plan (1976-81), however, higher relative priority was given to directly productive sectors and transport's share fell to 27 percent despite increasing in absolute terms by about one-third. Similarly, in line with relative sectoral needs, the planned share for the transport sector under the Fifth Plan is 21 percent. While the proportion of transport investment in total investment has been reduced, its realization has remained to a large extent dependent upon foreign financing. Also, the absorptive capacity in the transport sector is limited and actual investments lag behind planned levels. However, efforts are being made, with the assistance of the Bank and other donors, to increase Government's capabilities to plan and manage transport investments. 28. The Ministry of Transport (MOT) and the Ministry of Equipment (MINE) are the principal Government agencies in charge of the planning and implemen- tation of transport projects. However, their staffing is limited both in numbers and in their capacity to prepare and evaluate more complex investment programs. As a result of the ongoing dialogue between the Government and the Bank on sector policies, steps are being taken to improve the planning mecha- nisms. Plans are well advanced to establish a Planning and Coordination Division in MOT. Consultants have been recruited under Bank-financed projects to provide technical assistance and training to the transport sector. The National Port Authority (NPA) and REGIFERCAM have overall responsibility for planning and implementation of projects in their respective sub-sectors. NPA is to receive technical assistance under the proposed Third Douala Port Project to improve its long-term planning, management, and implementation capabilities. MINE, NPA and REGIFERCAM have also taken steps to improve their operational and planning capacity with Bank assistance. These measures are designed to help increase efficiency and productivity of the transport sector. The Government, recognizing the further need for improved and more comprehen- sive planning, has requested advice from the Bank to carry out an overall transport sector survey which will be part of the recently approved Fifth Highway Project. This survey would provide longer-term perspectives on key sector issues such as intermodal choice, policy formulation, investment criteria and resource allocation and would also provide a sound basis for the preparation of the transport component of future development plans.  -8- The Port Subsector 29. Douala is the focal point for most port activity in the Cameroon. It is the site of the major port handling about 90 percent of Cameroon's foreign and transit trade and serving the landlocked neighbouring countries of Central African Republic and Chad. Three other smaller coastal ports are located at Kribi, Tiko and Victoria-Pointe Limboh while a small seasonal river port is based at Garoua. 30. Traffic through Douala port has been increasing rapidly in recent years. Total foreign traffic grew from 1.7 million tons in 1969 to 2.0 million t6ns in 1975 and 3.3 million tons in 1980 or by average annual rates of 3.2 percent and 10.9 percent for the two periods, respectively. Most of the traffic consisted of general cargo. In line with the fast growth in GDP (8.1_percent p.a. between FY1976 and FY1981), general cargo tonnage increased by the late 1970s at an average of 10 percent per year and is expected to contifiue to grow on average at about 8 percent per year during the 1980s. Container traffic has been increasing very rapidly during the past few years reaching about 550,000 tons in 1981. Containerized traffic is expected to grow faster than general cargo, increasing from 27 percent of general cargo traffic in 1981 to an estimated 55 percent by 1990. 31. The Cameroonian Government and NPA have attached great importance to the development of Douala port to enable the port handle the rapid increases in traffic. The NPA, assisted by the World Bank and other donors, has success- fully carried out major extensions at the port. The First Douala Port Project (Credit 229-CM, 1971), with physical works satisfactorily completed in 1974, increased Douala's handling capacity for industrial raw materials and logs through the construction of a new deep-water berth, the provision of a shallow draft quay, and related facilities and services for log handling, the acquisi- tion of a small cutter suction dredger and the provision of consultancy and advisory services. The project performance audit report (No. 1604, May 24, 1977) for the project concluded that, despite a two-year delay in the comple- tion of works due in part to delays in contract awards, the project succeeded in removing serious bottlenecks in the Cameroon's port capacity and contributed significantly to the definition of a long term port development strategy, including improvements in the institutions concerned and in the financial situation. 32. The Second Douala Port Project (Loan 1321/Credit 657 CM, 1976) involving 12 cofinancers aimed at providing a substantial capacity expansion and operational improvements by providing a new fishing port and ship repair facility, a new log port and two container berths, two roll-on/roll-off berths, and channel dredging. The loan and credit for the project have been fully disbursed and the project has been successfully completed, except for the channel deepening which should be completed in 1983. Construction experi- enced some cost overruns which were financed by NPA and the Government. In both the first and second projects, NPA complied with all principal credit and loan covenants. However, since the capital dredging under the Second Port project has not been completed and the new channel established, NPA has not  - 9 - yet been able to prepare the required maintenance dredging program. NPA has agreed to submit this program to the Bank by March 31, 1984 for review and to carry out the necessary maintenance works in accordance with the agreed program (Section 4.02(b) of the draft Loan Agreement). Preparation of the maintenance dredging program as well as a comprehensive study of further deepening of the channel are included in the proposed project. 33. The proposed Third Douala Port Project would complement and extend work carried out under two previous port projects by further increasing capacity at Douala port in line with traffic growth, modernizing port facili- ties, and improving operations and management at the port. There are, at present, no firm plans for a fourth project. However, an overall review of the port subsector, including existing and ongoing studies and future project possibilities, will be carried out under the proposed project. Among the major ongoing studies to be reviewed are those regarding a possible new deep- water port in the south near Kribi with related inland transport infrastructure aimed at opening up the southern part of the country to enable exploitation of the region's natural resources, particularly timber and minerals. The National Port Authority (NPA) 34. Douala port and the other minor ports in Cameroon are managed by the National Port Authority which was established in 1972 in connection with the Bank's first port project. The NPA is a financially and operationally autonomous public corporation for administration, maintenance, and construc- tion of all coastal and river ports, for the maintenance of navigational aids and for the management of industrial port activities. 35. NPA is governed by a 12-member Board of Directors consisting of representatives from the major government ministries and from institutions in the transport sector. NPA is managed by a Director General and two deputies to the Director General appointed by presidential decree. NPA has operational and financial autonomy under the general supervision of MOT. The Government is responsible for approving tariff changes and for covering NPA's losses, if any. Organization and Management 36. NPA's organization is generally sound and adapted to its present needs. Its management and administration have improved substantially with technical assistance provided under the two previous Bank-financed projects. Under the Second Douala Port project, NPA started developing a "staff and line" organization. Finance, Training, and Management Control and Budgeting Departments have been created, and well-trained Cameroonian staff has been recruited, assisted by expatriate experts. In continuation with this sound and basically successful policy, NPA has decided to develop "staff" positions using modern management techniques. Therefore, as part of the implementation of an Action Plan for Organizational Development agreed upon by NPA and the Bank, NPA will reinforce various key departments including the Computer, Personnel Finance, and Port Access Departments by recruiting needed technical  - 10 - and managerial staff, undertaking specialized training programs and preparing by June 30, 1984 a full five-year corporate plan (Section 4.01 of the draft Loan Agreement). Under the proposed project 42 staff-months of consulting services would be provided to assist NPA in this task. 37. As a consequence of the rapid expansion of the port, corporate planning was initiated under the second Bank-financed port project, and training and financial plans were elaborated. These efforts will be continued and consolidated by establishing, with Bank assistance, a Corporate Planning Department, which will have overall responsibility for financial and opera- tional planning as well as coordination of investment and manpower plans. 38. In parallel with the modernization of its organization, NPA's management information system has been developed, including the establishment of an effective costing and budgeting system, and the preparation of a statis- tical system for operation statistics following UNCTAD recommendations. However, the further development of the management information system is severely restricted by the lack of NPA's data processing capacity. Therefore, NPA has hired an expert, to be retroactively financed under the proposed project, to prepare an urgently needed long-term plan for data processing. The proposed project would also finance hardware and technical assistance for software requirements for the first three years of this plan. To complement NPA's future data processing capacity by an efficient internal information system, NPA will improve its records office, documentation center, and internal communication system. Finances 39. NPA's past financial policy was generally sound and consistent with its long-term financial commitments. Since 1975, NPA undertook major capacity extensions financed mainly from borrowed funds including two Bank loans. Debt service, therefore, increased sharply from CFAF 2 million in FY1976 to CFAF 1,877 million in FY1981. In the past, NPA was able to increase considerably its cash generation to service its debt and to contribute to the financing of its capital investment as a result of timely tariff increases and adequate cost control. Recently, however, financial and liquidity problems have arisen because major works to increase port capacity were undertaken 18 months earlier than originally planned, with significant financial contributions from NPA. The accelerated investment policy has put a strain on NPA's liquidity position and necessitated the use of short-term funds to finance part of the capital investment. The liquidity shortage was accentuated by excessive commercial receivables equivalent to three months of revenue. 40. In the future, NPA will have to meet rising debt service of an estimated CFAF 4 billion in FY1986, due in part to the expiration of the grace periods of loans for the Second Port Project. However, capital investment needs in the next few years are smaller than in the past, and therefore, debt service increase should be moderate. As future traffic growth prospects are favorable, NPA will be able to achieve the necessary cash generation of CFAF 8.2 billion by FY1986, to (i) service its debt; (ii) contribute substantially to future capital investments; and (iii) restore an adequate working capital.  - 11 - To achieve this, a Financial Action Plan was agreed upon by the Bank and NPA to ensure that necessary actions will be taken in a timely manner (Section 4.01 of the draft Loan Agreement). Under the Financial Action Plan, NPA will: (i) revise the tariff structure to better reflect the full cost of services provided to port users, including direct costs, depreciation, finan- cing costs and overhead; (ii) eliminate bank overdrafts by December 31, 1983; (iii) reduce commercial receivables to not more than two months of revenue by June 30, 1984; and (iv) raise its contribution to its capital investment program to 17 percent by FY1984 and 40 percent by FY1986. Moreover, NPA has agreed to target rates of return on net revalued fixed assets of 4.5 percent in FYs 1983-85 and 5.5 percent thereafter (Section 5.04 of the draft Loan Agreement). Recent tariff increases have brought average tariffs to a level adequate to achieve the initial rate of return target and the Government recognizes the importance of adequate tariffs for NPA's financial viability and for ensuring that the economic benefits of the proposed project accrue to Cameroon. PART IV - THE PROJECT Background 41. The extension of capacity at Douala port, the modernization of existing facilities and the improvement of operations and management have been accorded high priority by the Government because existing facilities were becoming increasingly insufficient to handle the growing traffic result- ing from Cameroon's rapid economic development. When the port extensions are completed by 1988, they should permit the port to handle a total general cargo tonnage of about 4.5 million tons as compared with a general cargo traffic volume of 2.0 million tons in 1981. 42. The proposed project is primarily based on an earlier investment program initiated for Douala Port in the late 70s. The original program was relatively complex and expensive. During subsequent reviews undertaken by the Government in consultation with the Bank, economically unjustified elements of the investment program such as the ALUCAM transfer and a new clinker berth were deleted. Based on consultants' preliminary feasibility study, the scope of the proposed project was further refined during preappraisal work in 1980/81. The appraisal mission was based on detailed engineering and project studies prepared by consultants. 43. After the appraisal mission in April 1981, a brief post-appraisal mission took place in May 1982. Negotiations were held in Washington from January 11 to 14, 1983. The Cameroonian delegation was led by H. E. Paul Pondi, Ambassador to the United States. The Staff Appraisal Report No. 3803-CM is being distributed to the Executive Directors separately.  - 12 - 44. The complicated soil conditions at the proposed location of the new berths, and uncertainties about the existing workloads of prequalified contractors made reliable project cost estimation for the civil works component difficult. Accordingly, NPA decided to receive tenders prior to negotiations so that cost estimates could be adjusted as necessary. In addition, the scope of the project was increased at Government request during post-appraisal with the addition of a container berth to meet growing demand and realize economies of scale in civil works. Bids were recently opened and the civil works contract is scheduled to be awarded immediately after Board approval of the proposed loan so that construction work would begin soon thereafter. Due to the advanced state of contract processing, it is therefore estimated that the loan will be fully disbursed within five years. Project Objectives and Description 45. The project would assist NPA to provide additional capacity at Douala port in line with traffic growth and to improve navigational safety in the port including the port's ability to handle larger ships by replacing an old tugboat. The project would also provide technical assistance for a port subsector study and to further strengthen NPA's administrative and operating efficiency, particularly at Douala port. Specifically, the proposed project would consist of: (i) Civil Works for port extension involving: (a) construction of one 200 m container berth and two 200 m multipurpose marginal berths for handling mixed general cargo and, at one berth, also for loading fruit; (b) construction of a partly ventilated warehouse for storage of fruit and general cargo; and (c) construction of access roads and a railway spur on the apron of one berth to handle heavy loads. (ii) Port Equipment consisting of: (a) mobile conveyors for storage of fruit in the ventilated part of the warehouse and loading of fruit into ships, (b) a tugboat of 1,700 hp; and (c) buoyage and electronic positioning equipment. (iii) Data Processing for NPA: (a) a central processing unit and auxi- liary equipment; (b) technical assistance for data processing planning and for software for management and technical operations. (iv) Technical Assistance for NPA: 183 staff-months of consulting services for (a) supervision of construction; (b) establishment of a staff evaluation and incentives sytem; (c) staff and manpower planning and personnel administration; (d) organization of the NPA records office for filing and processing technical, economic and managerial information; (e) study of the future development of the port subsector; (f) studies of dredging requirements at the Port of Douala; and (g) study of navigational-aid improvements at the Port.  - 13 - Implementation 46. NPA will be responsible for overall project implementation. It will be assisted by consultants primarily for the supervision of civil works and tugboat construction, the review of the present data processing system, manpower planning, and administration. Project implementation is expected to take five years, beginning in late 1983 and ending by late 1988. Civil Works for Port Extension 47. The container berth and the two multi-purpose marginal berths in 9.5 m water depth for the handling of general cargo and fruit will all together be 600 m long, and will be built steel sheet piling. The partly ventilated warehouse will measure approximately 46 m wide by 146 m long and will provide transit storage for fruit and general cargo. The apron railway siding at one of the new berths was designed to handle heavy loads. The proposed project provides for 66 staff-months of consulting services for supervision of civil works and tugboat construction. 48. Taking into account projected traffic growth, the container berth will be required by about 1988, its planned first full year of operation. Construction of this berth in continuation of the construction of the two multipurpose berths would reduce overall construction costs. However, as the appropriate timing of its construction is dependent on actual traffic growth, disbursement of funds for it would be subject to confirmation, satisfactory to the Bank, that it remains economically justified (Schedule 1 of the draft Loan Agreement). To avoid potential excess capacity of berths if container cranes were included, NPA will not acquire such cranes unless their justification, acceptable to the Bank, is established (Section 5.06(b) of the draft Loan Agreement). Port Equipment 49. The proposed equipment consists of mobile conveyors for storage and loading of fruit and a tugboat of 1700 hp with approximately 25-ton bollard pull. The new tugboat is to replace an existing old tug boat still in opera- tion. 16 staff-months of consultants services under the proposed project are envisaged to help establish performance specifications for the tugboat and supervise its construction, and for reception of the fruit-handling equipment. Data Processing for NPA 50. Because of NPA's need to acquire its own data processing system, technical assistance is urgently needed for the assessment of NPA's present data processing system and for the preparation of a long-term data processing development plan. The proposed project provides for eight staff-months of consulting services to prepare the long-term development plan, to be submitted to the Bank for agreement by September 30, 1983 (Section 3.02(a) and Schedule 1 of the draft Loan Agreement). The proposed project will also provide necessary hardware for the implementation of the agreed data processing plan, and 75 staff-months of technical assistance for software needed for the adaptation and improvement of the existing data processing chains.  - 14 - Technical Assiatance for NPA 51. To further improve its organization and management efficiency, NPA needs to strengthen its administrative and manpower planning systems. For that purpose, the proposed project provides for 18 staff-months of technical assistance for manpower planning and personnel administration, 10 staff-months for the establishment of a staff evaluation and salary incentives system, and 14 staff-months for the organization of the NPA records office for filing and processing technical, economic and managerial information. In addition, 12 staff-months are provided for a comprehensive port subsector study (para. 33), 30 staff-months for dredging studies and 17 staff-months for the improvement of navigation in the Port of Douala (para. 32). Costs and Financing 52. The total cost of the project net of taxes is estimated at USS32.8 million. Foreign exchange cost is estimated at US$22.3 million or 68 percent of total cost. Project costs are based on January 1983 prices. Cost for civil works were based on detailed engineering and actual bid prices received before negotiations. Physical contingencies were estimated at 15 percent for all civil works, mainly because of the uncertainty of soil conditions in the construction area. Price contingencies have been calculated at average annual rate of about seven percent for foreign costs and 12 percent for local costs. The proposed loan would allow for up to US$100,000 of retroactive financing for expenditures incurred after July 1, 1982 for urgently needed technical assistance for the preparation of the data processing plan and for the perfor- mance specification of the tugboat. The loan would provide for a total of 183 staff-months of consulting services and 83 staff-months of technical assistance for data processing at an average cost of US$12,000 per staff-month including per diem, transportation and other reimbursable expenses. These unit costs are in line with prevailing billing rates of consulting firms operating in Cameroon. Total financing required for the project is US$33.0 million including a US$167,494 front-end fee on the proposed Bank loan. 53. The proposed Bank Loan of US$22.5 million would finance 68 percent of the estimated financial requirements, including the front-end fee, and would cover 100 percent of the foreign exchange cost of the project. NPA would finance the remaining 32 percent of total project costs or 100 percent of local costs. The Government would forego all taxes through a general tax exemption for the project. Procurement and Disbursement 54. All civil works and equipment for the project will be procured under international competitive bidding procedures following Bank guidelines. The computer will be procured under international competitive bidding following the performance specifications prepared by the consultants for electronic data processing planning, financed under the proposed project. Consultants will be selected and recruited following Bank group guidelines and appointed on terms acceptable to the Bank.  - 15 - 55. The Bank loan would be disbursed over five years to cover the following expenditures: (i) 63 percent of the total cost of civil works; (ii) 89 percent of the total cost of fruit handling equipment; (iii) 100 perceilL of -he tugboat, buoya8e dutad electronic positioning equipment and data processing equipment; (iv) 69 percent of the total cost of consultants' services; and (v) 80 percent of the total cost of technical assistance for data processing. US$6.3 million would be unallocated. All disbursement applications would be fully documented. A special condition of disbursement of funds for data processing hardware and software would be that NPA submit a long-term data processing plan satisfactory to the Bank (Section 3.02 of the draft Loan Agreement). Disbursement of funds for fruit handling equipment would be contingent on the Government's and NPA's providing the Bank with satisfactory assurances that the equipment will be used for the intended purpose. Disbursement of funds for the container berth would be subject to confirmation, satisfactory to the Bank, that it remains economically justified (Schedule 1 of the draft Loan Agreement). Project Benefits and Justification 56. The project is expected to generate substantial benefits within and outside Cameroon. The extension of port capacity through the construction of the three berths will result in reduced ship waiting time for general cargo vessels carrying goods for Cameroon and, to a lesser extent, for the land- locked least developed countries of Central African Republic and Chad. The transfer of fruit loading to one of the new multi-purpose berths will also enable reduced damage to fruit due to improved cargo handling and elimination of the clinker dust that was common at the existing berth. This would not only eliminate unfavorable environmental conditions, but would also result in greater returns to fruit exporters and producers as the price of fruit should increase with improved quality. The project would, furthermore, reduce ship service time for reefer vessels--specialized ships to handle cargo under temperature-controlled conditions--and hence reduce transport cost. Acquisi- tion of a new tugboat would improve handling of ships at the port and would reduce time losses for berthing and unberthing. Unquantified benefits of the project include improved working conditions for dockers loading fruit, employ- ment generated during project construction, cost savings due to the elimina- tion of clinker dust, and minor reduction in ship waiting time for clinker vessels scheduled to utilize in future the existing fruit berth. 57. The overall economic rate of return is estimated at 28 percent. Sensitivity tests show that even in the event of a combined 20 percent increase in project cost and a 20 percent reduction in benefits, the rate of return would still be 22 percent. Risks 58. The project has no major or unusual risks since it is based on sound engineering principles and port construction practices and would be supervised by qualified consultants. There is a possibility of higher construction costs due to difficult soil conditions and variations in projected traffic growth.  - 16 - Potential risks were taken into account by applying higher physical contingen- cies, through sensitivity analyses of the economic rate of return computation and by the inclusion of a disbursement condition for the container berth. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 59. The draft Loan Agreement between the Bank and the National Port Authority, the draft Guarantee Agreement between the United Republic of Cameroon and the Bank and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article III, Section 4(iii) of the Articles of Agreement of the Bank are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 60. Special conditions of the draft Loan Agreement are listed in Section III of Annex III. Special conditions of disbursement of funds for data processing hardware and technical assistance for software as well as for fruit handling equipment would be that, NPA would submit a long-term data processing plan satisfactory to the Bank and the Government and NPA would give the Bank satisfactory assurances that the fruit handling equipment will be used for the intended purpose. Disbursement of funds for the container berth is subject to confirmation, satisfactory to the Bank, that it remains economically justified. 61. I am satisfied that the proposed loan would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Bank. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 62. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed loan. A.W. Clausen President Attachments Washington, D.C., March 10, 1983  -17 - ANNEX I Page 1 of 7 Page 1 TABLE 3A CAMEROON - SOCiAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET CAMEROON REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVERAGES AREA (THOUSAND SQ. KM.) - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE)- TOTAL 475.4 MOST RECENT MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME AGRICULTURAL 152.1 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA NORTH AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 150.0 250.0 670.0/c 1053.2 1253.6 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAM4IS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 85.2 108.6 142.5 610.1 713.5 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, MID-YEAR (THOUSANDS) 5681.0 6781.0 8444.0 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 13.9 20.3 34.6 28.3 47.3 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 14.2 STATIONARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) 40.8 YEAR STATIONARY POPULATION IS REACHED 2110 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. KM. 11.9 14.3 17.3 54.7 35.8 PER SQ. KiE. AGRICULTURAL LAND 38.7 46.8 54.2 129.9 420.9 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) U-14 YRS. 38.9 40.5 41.3 46.0 44.3 15-64 YRS. 57.0 55.5 54.2 51.1 52.4 65 YRS. AN'D ABOVE 4.1 4.1 4.4 2.8 3.3 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.8 2.8 URBAN 4.9 5.6 7.5 5.2 4.6 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 42.9 42.0 42.3 47.2 41.2 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 27.1 22.2 18.6 15.7 12.2 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.2 2.9 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) USFRS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71=100) 89.0 101.0 110.0 90.7 100.4 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 91.3 93.1 106.0/d 93.9 108.5 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 48.6 52.9 61.8/d 54.8 71.9 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 11.5 14.3 15.9/d 17.0 18.0 CHILO (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 36.3 28.0 21.0 23.9 15.1 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRT9 (YEARS) 37.2 42.2 47.1 51.0 56.9 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) 162.5 133.7 108.8 118.5 104.3 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. 26.0/e .. 59.1 URBAN .. .. 35.07T1 .. 83.1 RURAL .. .. 22.0/e .. 39.8 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. .. .. .. .. POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 48;08.3 30137.8 16503.1/d 14185.2 4015.5 POPULAT1ON PER NURSING PERSON 3276.4/f,g 2722.2 1154.1/d 2213.2 1802.2 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 535.7/g 563.0/h 370.1/d 1036.4 641.7 URBAN 505.371,g 302.071 199.77T 430.8 538.3 RURAL 527.0/E.g 722.0/h 606.8/d 3678.6 2403.3 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. .. .. .. 25.5 HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL .. .. 5.2/e URBAN .. .. 5.17.. RURAL .. .. 5.2/e AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. .. .. .. . ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. 6.7/e URBAN .. .. 22.6/s RURAL .. .. 0.57.  ANNEX I -18 - Page 2 of 7 Page 2 TABLE 3A CAMEROON - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET CAMEROON REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVERAGES - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE)- MOST RECENT MIDDLE INCOME MIDDLE INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA NORTH AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 65.0 91.0 103.0 83.3 88.7 MALE 87.0 105.0 113.0 96.1 104.5 FEMALE 43.0 77.0 93.0 80.4 72.0 SECONDARY: TOTAL 2.0 8.0 17.0 15.3 39.7 MALE 4.0 11.0 22.0 19.4 49.3 FEMALE 1.0 4.0 12.0 11.3 29.0 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (7 OF SECONDARY) 23.0 22.8 25.1/d 4.7 10.1 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY .. 47.7 50.0/d 38.6 34.1 SECONDARY .. 23.1/i 26.2/d 23.4 23.7 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 18.9/f 12.0 . . 35.6 43.3 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSARND POPULATION 1.7 4.9 7.7/e 31.9 17.8 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 1.7 31.3 91.0 71.8 131.3 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. .. .. 17.9 44.1 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 1.2 2.5 3.4 19.1 31.5 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA 0.1 .. 1.01/ 0.6 1.7 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 2907.0 3299.0 3833.7 FEMALE (PERCENT) 43.0 42.7 41.7 36.5 10.6 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 87.0 85.0 83.0 56.5 42.4 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 5.0 6.0 7.0 17.7 27.8 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 51.2 48.7 45.4 37.0 26.0 MALE 59.9 57.0 53.9 46.9 46.2 FEMALE 42.9 40.6 37.2 27.2 5.6 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.9 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US0 PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 238.0 507.0 279.2 RURAL .. .. 105.0 200.6 178.6 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US0 PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. 523.9 403.6 RURAL .. .. .. 203.6 285.6 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. 15.0 .. 22.1 RURAL .. .. 40.0 3 30.9 Not available Not applicable. NOTES /a The group averages for each indicator are population-weighted arithmetic means. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /b Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1978 and 1980. /c Fiscal year July-June; /d 1977; /e 1976; /f 1962; /g including ex-South Cameroon under British administration; /h 1968; /i 1972; /j 1974. May, 1982  - 19 - ANNEX I Pageg Page 3 of 7 DEFINITIONS OF SOCIAL. INDICATOFF Notes: Althrsgb the data ace drawn from soueces generaIly judged the -mst authorieative and reliable, it should also be noeId that they may tot be intee- nationally -orbparable b--ase of the Ilck of st-ndo-d-ood deifnitloen and .o.e.pts used by diffocent testeries in colleoting the data. The data Ire, sate- eheless. useftl to describe orders of rngn}tude. indicate -Anda. and ohtaractrize cerrain major diffnrenoen betweet aountries. The referesce groaps are (1) the osae ocoutty group of the subject ...nrry and (21 a -ontly froup nith t-svheac higher a-reage insr than the -contry g-oup of the sabje- tauntry (ecops for "High macma Oil Exporters" group shere "Middle Inc- North Afrita ood Middle Base' isohonon becanne of stronfer socot-cultaral tffhinites). tI the inference groap dasa the --erages are pouasion vighted otithmetit means far each indirator and shoIn only vhe majority of theoosntries in grop has data foe that indicator. CSi-e the corage of aaantries smog the indicators depends or the availability at data and is sat unifors. caation mast be ete-cisod in relatinf acesages of eon indicator to anathee. These averages are only useful in coparing the vnoie of ass indicator etaitme aIoig the countey and refernnte grsps. ARfA (fthousan.d sq.k .) Fopalati'n per Hofifal Bed - Coral, urban, aod coral - PapaRatios (total Total - Total sarface ones co- rtrlog laod area and inland vatecs; 1979 data. urhan. and rorl) divided by thetir respectie number of hospital beds Agricultural - nEtimate of agritsitoesl ores usad te=porarily or Fe..nanetly availoblo it p=ubli and peivate general and isoecalized hospitil and en- for tct. pastares, Farke and kitthen gardens or to lie fillow; 1979 dtat. hobilitotistcenters. Hoopitals ate establishmeers pe.mosenCly staffed by at lesst one physician. srahblinh ont, ptoviding principally custo- GNF PIR CAPITA (1111) - SNP pFe -apita estimates at cerrent masher prices, oal- dial care sae Itt tncluded. Enrol hospitals, aonet, inolude health tulated by sass aeneerneon method as W-orld bno Atias (f978 E- basis); 1960, aod redi-al cent-rs ot permanently staffed by a physicaln (bht by a 1970, and 198f data. medioc . assistane, ocean, midaife, et-.) vhich offer it-paCient aaasmao- dation sod potvide a lioited annie of medi-al fatilities-. on ststit- ENERGY CONS11MFTCON PER CAPITA - hanal. --saptioe of a-t-eial energy (ocal tical psrPsts- eonI ho.iptols include fills peiooipol/geneeol hospitals, aEd ItGY g ,TO PtEtE, C ta PT alnd hydra-. nualear nd geotherI eiec- 'cd easal hospitals, local or carol hospital d medicai and maternity tritity) it kilogeam of tool equivaltot per topita; l96, 9197. and 1979 o Snet. Specfali-ed hospitalt aen inleodod only ander total. data. Admissias per Hospital fed - Teril ourber of ad=issios to or disthoeges trad hospitals divided by the somber ofa edi. FiOPULATION ANDi TITAL STATISTICS Total Popalation, Mid-Year (thousands) - As of Jaly 1; 1960, 1970. aed 1980 tOUSING data. Average aSio of Hiusehold (persons poe hou.shold) - eotal, arban, and -oral- UEbhn Popolation (portent of ttoal) - Ratio of urban to total popolation; A housthold aotsirts of a group of individuals hoh share living q--rters different definitions of arbas aeas nay affect porparabilily of data and their main wealn. A boaeder or lodger my on my not bh irclsded in among tcouttri-; 1960, 1970. and 19S0 data, the househald foe statistical purposes. Popularion Projeations Average masher of De.sses per roo= - total, urban, and crol - asesageaa. Population in year 2000 - Cserene populaeion projettions see based on logo her of pesons poe room in all arhan, and arol octspied conventional total popalation by age and sot and their maretlity and fertilirpy Iaes. dveelligs, respectively. DvelliIgt eclade eon-peemnent seractures and Projection paramters. for metolity roses comprise of tIres levelsassu=- poccuspied porte. Oa6 life expecttncy at birth iacc'eaanOtt couDtry's per tcaitt aicot r Accsoess Eglectricity pSeasen of deellioso) total, arbor, and -seal lane, sod Female life encottsecy stabilizing at 17.5 yeans. The paro- Cpn-entional dwellings with eleattriity in Ricing qsarters an perent-age megers for fertilety rote also tact three levels assuring deoite is of total, arbas, aed raral dnellisgtrespectinely. fertility ato-disg to income level and past family planning pIrforranoe. bach connery in thee assigned one of these nine combinations of mortality EDUCATION and fetillity trends for Projiction psepos.s. Adj-sted inroillent Ration Stationaty popslotioa -In a stationary population theer is no geowtb since Feimray ahool - total, maI and feale - GIros total, male and female the birth rite is equai to the death rate, and also the ago trucItute re- ecrollsent of oil ages at the primary Ievel at perentagea of ceap-ctive matinsoneont. This Is athicved oely after fertiity artes decline to prcry ahool-ge populationsi; or=lly inolades chid .ens a8d h-11 the replaoce=nt len1 of enit net repradctnion rate. when ea-h generation yeare bat adjusted for differntt lengths of primary edutation for of voren replacem itself exattly. The stationary populactionsine was Iountriea itb -nivertal edatio enrollment naY econd l10 peretnt esti=tend on the basin of the peojecred oharreteriatica of ne popslation aince some pupils are balsa or shone the official school age. in the ysar 2000, sad the rite of decline Of f-rtility rate to replace- Secoodary achool - tonal, male and femle - Corputed at sbonv; seeodary meat les'. edu_atioe require at lease four years of apperoed primary initrctilon; Year stationary population it -eached - The year wheo stationary popslatiot providea general, notational, or teacher training insfructions toe pupils se sill he reached. Isially of 10 Co 17 yeaes of age; correspondents tourses see genneolly Populatiom Density etcluded. Pee aq. kh. - Mid-y-e population per aquare kiloretet (100 hertares) of tti e n (e of s dondary) - Veat-ional i-stttions total aces; 1960, 1970 and 1979 dote. in-lude teahnical, industrial. oe other progr=aE whih operate independ- Far in. he. agrfauleaaL land - Corpuend as sbore for ag, icalearad land Intly or as departments of seoondarpyinstittens. osly; 19S0, 1070 and 1979 data. Pupil-teacher ratio - dri=ree and aecondary - Total atdents enrolled in Fopuiation Ago Structure (percet) - Children (0-14 yeses). arhkieg-age (15- primcy and secondaty lenols divided by tambees of heaters is the 64 years), and retired (65 yearn and aver) as percentages of aid-year pops- carrenponding levels. lotion; 1960, i170. and 19oO data. Adult literaty rats (pyrsoet) - Literate adults (sbln to tead ond erite) Fppolation Growth gats (peecentf - total - Aqssal grevth rates of total mid- as a percestage of total adalt population aged IS yearn and onee. year population fee 1950-. 5 9!0-70, and 1970-Nn. Population GrpYrh Note (peroent) - I rban- A..al geoeth raIns of arban pop- CONSUMPTION laieti_ foe 1950-i0, 1960-70, snd 1910-80. Fasisegme Bat (pee thousand population) - Passenger oars corpriae mater Crude Birth Rate B(per thstand) - Annual live births par thoasand of oid-yeas oars seating less than eight prerson; sacloden anbolante. , hearses and popalation; 1960, 1970, and 1980 data. rilitay -ehi'les. Crode Death Rate (per thousand) - Annual deaths pe thousaod of nid-year Radio iReceiers (p-e thoasand popalation) - All types of ecees for radio populattos; 1960, 1910, aod 1980 data., broadates to geceral public per tlousand of populatien; exolades s- Iroat Repeodcti-on Rats -Aerage narbee of d-aghters a woan will bhar is licensed reteiv.es is constries and it y_et nhes registration of radio bee norral reprodpttive period if ahl espcentceta present ago-spec.ifi fee- sets sat in effect; data Ior retest yeats ny eot be -np-arable since tility totes; .sually five-yean anerages s ding in 1l6, 1970, sod 19ff. soot toantiris obotished liaesiog. Family Flonniog -Aoceptre, Annal (thousands) - Annual anhrbe of acceptors TV f sainess (per theusand population) - TVreteives for broadcast to of Itd,h-tontrol devitea under daspie,, of national fa=ily plannieg progrm. geseral publiaco r tboasand populatin,; eoalades Inlien.sed TV receivers Family Planning - Bser (percent of maried man) - Feentage of mrried Iacanteieasod is yearnsvhea egiaton of TV ants was in effect. apen of child-besriog ago (15-44 yearn) she ass irbth-totto-l de-ite to Nevspaype Cirt-lation (per thousand population) - Ihews the a-e-age tie- all mtriod n_mee it same age gr_ap. calation of "daily general itereat-newapaper", defined as a periodital pabliestion denoted peImetily to cncedicg geneal ne1 It isooss..idneed FOOD AN1 NUTRlTITN to be "daily" if it appnear at tn tear tim a wool. loden of Food Froducti-n per Bpits (1969-11-101) - lndet of per tOpits annual Cinema Atnoal Attendance tee tapita per Boar- osed on the to-bee of produotion of all feed toaodit.es, Perdotion sotr lden s-ed and feed and tikoes sold dueing the year, inclnding fdmieie- to drive-in cine-a is on calendar year basin. Cesmodities teovr pritary goods (e.g. sagarcane sod mbile onits. inttead of sogarf which are edible adacntaisonutients (e.g. toffee and tea are excloded). Aggregate produttion of saah cso.tty - bhsed on LABOR FORCE notional Irerag. prod-ce- peilt veighta; 1961-65, 1970, and 19f0 data,. Ttal Labor Pecan (theonsads) - Efconoically attive peesons, intlading Per capira supply of calories (percent of regoiraemsts) - Corputed fees aImad Pareas and unerployed bht enaladins hoasewives, studetnt, eta., eneery equivalent of wee feed sapplies svoilable in oontry per topit, _einiEg ypolstion of all ages. Definitnions Is variauscontries ar pee day. Available syppliss cospeise domestic produtti.n, iqpo-ti test cot corpasoble; 1910. 1970 and 1980 data. espores, and changes in stock. Net supplies estclde sninal lend, sends, Feale (perte=e) - Femle labor force as po....rafe of total laboe forte. quantitiea used in food protessing, sad lases is distribution. Require- Agriculture (perest) - Labhr forte ie forming, forestry, hunting and mets weree etirated hy FAO hosed en physiological snkds le normal acti- fishing on percentage of tatal labor feor; 1960, 1970 and 1980 data. vity and hbalthi onsidering snoitenettal tenperature, body ceights, age Industry (porcent) - Labor forte in Inoing, contetr ion masaFotoieg and see distribution of populatton, and alloting 10 Percent fee waste at ad eleotrioity, ester and gas as psecennage of total iabor frore; houseobld lenel; 1961-65, 1970 and 1910 dots. 1960, 1970 sod 19f0 data. Fee caspita aupply of protein (gross pee day) - Frotein cootent of per tapis P_artioipatiio Rote (percet) - totsl, male. sod fele - Participatio or sot aupply of food per day. rNet ouply of food is defined osh ore. Re- aotivity -r-ta e -orputeds total, male. and female labor forte as guiremasts for all countri-s e_tablished by USDA provide fle rinim peetentages of total, ale and femle population of all ages reaesctivelyi allI sance of 60 gross of total proteia pee day and 20 gesen of animal and 1960, 1910, and 1980 data. These one bated on ILO's participatio rates pulse protein, of which 10 geaqS shotld be animl protein. The-estsnd- reflecting a --see steucture of ehe populatio., and long ti-e trend. A ard ore loeer thae thess of 75 gras of total peotein sod 23 gras of fe- estimates see from national aources. animal protein so an seersge fon the world, proposed by FAO in the Third Eco-oic Dependenoy Ratio - Ratio of population ander 15 sod 65 ad over World Food Senney; 1961-65, 19171 and 1977 data. t hs total labor fore. Fee capita I o_toin sopply feoe .anml and pul-e - Pentein aspply of food de- riced fees aoimls cod pusems in grams per day; 1961-65, 1970 sod 1977 date. INCOE DISTRIBRUTION Child (lgos 1-4) Dac-h Note (per thousand) - Anonal deaths pet th.o.sod is Pserentaig of PFivate In- (both in cash owd kicd) - Roteived by rithest age geoup 1-4 pes, en children in this age group, foe -so developing cos- 5 percen,. riohese 20 pect-ot, pn -reat 20 psecent, sod poorest 40 percet tries does dseived fees life tables; 1960, 1970 and 19N0 dots. of h..seholds. HEALTH POVERTY TARGET GROUPS Life Expectancy at Bieth (years) - Averags sorber of years of life te=ining The Rollowing eatirates are tery sypronimate i eassess of poverty locals, at birth; 1960, 1970 and 1980 dito. and should bh ientepreted mitn cnnsiderable caution. Infamt MItaality Nte (per thousand) - Aonnel deaths of infants nder one Fear Bnti_ted Absolute Poverty Isorma L.evl Bj oSee caFpita) - aribs sod coral - of ago per rhousand line bith.; 1960, 1970 and 19B0 data. Absoluce ponerty iseok- level is that inorem levei Ibeln whih a minimal Atteas to Rafe Watee (percnot of -epopltion) - total, urbam. ood rurai - Nr- ontritionally sdeqgste diet pla ess.etial sen-Food requiremasts is set ber of people (total. urban, and real) with reaseo=le recesn no safe affordable. wator supply (includes treated -aufate mactsc as untreated hat ncontamisated Renimated Relation Povercy Incom-e LoneR (SO pee topics) - urion and carol - water such as thet froI proectned b-eholes, springs, sad sani-any wells) as Rourl reaitive poverty inoIce lemo1 is ons-thid of aneogo per .apita pseo.ntagos of their Iespective populations. In s arban are I psblic PFrsamal iso.em of the coustry. UDban level is deIioed frca the rurol fRatmain or stasdpst losated sat mere thba 200 matcra fra a hb se may be leel bith adjuatmant for higher we.t of living is srban areas. cossidered as being sithin reasonable access of ihot hbass. In rural areas Rttisoted Popelation Below AbIolute Poverty I-ope LeveI (OILernt) - urban reasomable atcevs neuld imply that the hessewife or mesht of the hbsseheld and rural - Peretnt of population (urbaoand coral) vh. are "absolute do not bhoo to spend a diapesp-ribanatt part of the day in fetthing the poor". family's avater sneds. Aceess to Ese,e DisDosnaal lerenesm of sosslotion - total, urbam. and coral - Rasher of people (totcl. vrhan, and rosal) mermA by snorata dipso..l am percoetages of their espective populations. Nooreta disposal pay inlsde the .olIeItdam nod disposal. sith en eitmeem treman en, of hmm e nnets sad wasis-mater by water-boere systems or the use of pit prinies and simi- lar nssmallattons. Populatios per Physisi - Populatite divided by ubser of praetiis.g phymi- E..n.mit sad Saris1 Data Div iton ciens qAltified foes a mediSal school at Vniversity leve. Rea_Nis Asalymis and Projoetias DIep-ot-it P-enlation per Nusring Penos. - Population divided byp sabot of proattsing Fay 1982 male sod female gsladtenucsem, momimmmms macmom. posesisel oscams and rmr-tng saniiltantem.  - 20 - ANNEX I Population: 8.7 million (mid-1981) Page 4 of 7 GNP per capita: US$790 (1981) ULNITED REPUILIC OF CAMERtOO ECONIIC INDICATORStl) /a l17 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 N4TIOtA ACCOUNTS (IN C(3RENT CFAF BILLIOS) 6P at Kaarket Prices 355.9 400.5 492.6 59.9 657.3 719.9 945.8 19135.4 1,390.3 1,703,7 Gross Do5estic Savings 45.3 59.6 109.9 85.9 104.2 158.9 222.9 231.5 2S1.9 373.8 Gross National Savings 38.8 52.8 96.0 72.6 93.7 151.7 211.7 214.2 268.4 341.1 Currmnt Ahount Balance -24.0 -17.8 0.3 -30.8 -27.1 -23.4 -11.1 -58.0 -39.9 -25.1 Exports of 6oods and NFS 80.9 90.6 132.6 138.S 156.8 209.0 296.0 313.3 410.8 538.8 lverts of 6oods and HFS -8.5 -101.7 -118.4 -156.4 -189.5 -231.9 -295.9 -355.6 -427.2 -526.2 (Is 2 ot 6DP at Market Price) 6P at Market Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Bross bmestic Savings 12.7 14.9 22.3 14.8 15.9 20.1 23.6 20.4 21.1 21.9 6ross National Savings 10.9 13.2 19.5 12.5 14.3 19.2 22.4 18.9 19.4 20.0 Cutrent Account Balance -6.8 -4.5 0.1 -5.3 -4.1 -3.0 -1.2 -5.1 -2.9 -1.5 Exports of Goods and NFS 22.7 22.6 26.9 24.0 23.8 26.5 31.3 27.6 29.8 31.6 Imworts of Goods and NFS -27.7 -25.4 -24.0 -27.0 -28.8 -29.4 -31.3 -31.3 -30.9 -30.9 (Am1 Real Rates of Growth) GDP at Market Prices 2.6 5.5 11.1 -1.7 5.0 8.0 7.3 8.5 6.0 7.0 6ROSs VALUE ADDED BY SECTOR (In Current CFAF Millions) Agriculture incl.Livestock etc 111.7 126.7 154.7 193.7 220.8 259.7 305.4 359.2 404.4 444.9 mininm' 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.0 3.2 5.2 23.2 76.7 196.7 Ma cturing 38.3 40.4 45.6 56.2 67.5 74.7 87.4 101.9 123.0 145.0 Construction 13.7 15.9 19.4 21.6 28.6 42.2 50.6 68.0 84.4 102.0 Electricitw, Gasr Water 4.8 4.8 5.3 5.7 6.7 10.1 11.7 14.3 16.8 20.0 Iranort and Coemunicatimns 26.4 31.9 40.1 49.3 5S.I 57.7 66.9 77,6 90.0 103.0 Trade 77.3 81.0 88.1 93.9 107.1 126.9 154.1 183.5 202.3 240.0 Public Administration 32,6 33.0 34.4 43,6 45.1 56.3 70.4 Bi.3 100.1 120,0 Other Services 37.6 51.9 84.7 85.3 91.5 115.9 140.3 159.0 206.1 252.1 Ilprt Duties 12.7 13.7 11.5 28.3 32,9 43.2 53.8 64.4 76.5 80.0 (As I of Total) Agiculture incl.Livestock etc 31.4 31.6 31.4 33.4 33.6 32.9 32.3 31.6 29.3 26.1 minird 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 2.0 5.6 11.5 Manufacturing 10.8 10.1 9.3 9.7 10.3 9.5 9.2 9.0 8.? 8.5 Construction 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.7 4.4 5.3 5.3 6.0 6.1 6.0 Electricits, Gas and Water 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 Transport and Communications 7.4 8.0 8.1 8.5 8.4 7.3 7.1 6.8 6.5 6.0 Trade 21.7 20.2 17.9 16.2 16.3 16.1 16.3 16.2 14.7 14.1 Public Administration 9.2 8.2 7.0 7.5 6.9 7.1 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.0 Other Services 10.6 13.0 17.2 14.7 13.9 14.7 14.8 14.0 14.9 14.8 Import Duties 3.6 3.4 3.8 4.9 5.0 5.5 5,7 5,7 5.5 4.7 US t1.00= CFAF 264.8 241.0 230.1 222.4 225.1 247.8 238.6 216.6 209,2 235.3 (Period Averase) SOURCE:Data supplied b' the Camerconian authorities with reclassification bs Staff. /a Fiscal Year (JulY 1- June 30) is used with End Year shown in the table. WEST RICA CP2B 02/07/83  - 21 - ANNEX I Page 5 of 7 Population: 8.7 million (mid-1981) GNP per capita: US$790 (1981) UNITED REPUPLIC OF CAmERON ECDNOMIC INDICATORS(2) 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 19S1 GOVERNMENT FINANCE SUMMARY /a (In CFAF Milliens) Current Receipts 56,500 59,308 67,895 83,3?0 98,763 120,q90 162?331 2'O,761 219.2'n 314.7.9 Current Expenditure 490400 50,590 58,600 70:9