Alternative projections of the Chinese population

Income and Other Factors Influencing Fertility Decline in China Nancy Birdsall and Dean T. Jamiron . . February 1981 Supplementary Paper I to Annex B - Population, Yealth and Nutrition IXTRODUCTORY ECONOMIC REPOAT ON CHINA . r  INCOME AND OTHER FACTORS INFLUENCWC FERTILITY DECLINE I N GiINA d e b a t e c o n t i n u e s o v e r t h e r e l a t i v e iatportance t o . . of t h e g e n e r a l l e v e l of development i n a s o c i e t y , v s . s p e c i f i c a l l y aimed a t r e d u c i n g f e r t i l i t y . T h i s d e b a t e i n s i g h t s i n t o i n t e r p r e t i n g a v a i l a b l e d a t a from China, t i m e , China p r o v i d e s i n t e r e s t i n g i f complicated concerning t h e general i s s u e s . On t h e one hand, China seems a n e x c e l l e n t c a s e of t h e P ossibility I of reducing f e r t i l i t y even i a a poor, l a r g e l y r u r a l s o c i e t y , g i v a vigorous government program t o reduce b i r t h s . China's c r u d e b i r t h r a t e i t h e mfd-1960s was probably above 40 per thousand p o p u l a t i o n p e r y e a r ; by 1979, t h e c r u d e b i r t h r a t e w a s a b o u t 20./1 Its e s t i m a t e d c u r r e n t t o t a f e r t i l i t y r a t e of about 2.75 / 2 is among t h e y o w e s t i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , and w e l l b e l o v t h a t of count?ies a t n o t d i s s i m i l a r l e v e l s of income ( I n d i a -5.0; I n d o c e s i a 4.9; S r i Lanka - 3.7). The i a p a c t of t h e government's a c t i v e p o l i c y of a d v o c a t i n g m a l l f a m i l i e s i s i l l u s t r a t e d by t h e f a c t t h t o t a l f e r t i l i t y rate f a 3 e l l below t h a t xc uould e x p e c t on Eke p e r capita i u c u ~ e , d s i i ~ u i lfti z i g u i t ;. On t h e o t h e r hand, few c o u n t r i e s a t China's incone governments t h a t can draw on China's p o l i t i c a l c a p a b i l i t i e s , o r s o c i a l and economic a r r a n g e m e a t s as w e l l a c c e p t and s p r e a d new nonns. Has t h e government program c o n t r i b u t o r t o t h e f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e ? I n t h e l a c e of a program, is t h e g e n e r a l l e v e l of development n o t Here w e p r e s e n t e v i d e n c e t h a t g o v e r m e n t p o l i c y , thou& v e r y I i m p o r t a n t i n d e e d , has n o t o p e r a t e d i n a vacuum. W e a r e a b l e t o c mpa-e, . f a r a s v e know f o r t h e f i r s t t i n e , c r u d e b i r t h and d e a t h r a t e s an r a t e s .. :~ n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e f o r v a r i o u s r e g i o n s of China w i t h d a t a on income and oc:. 7 s o c i o e c o n o n i c i n d i c a t o r s f o r t h e same r e g i o n s . W e a l s o have a v a i a b l e C - i on y e a r l y v i t a l r a t e s s i n c e L 1 9 7 2 f o r one p r o v i n c e . These d a t a dl ow u s 1 ' ' c o n s i d e r an i m p o r t ~ n tq u e s t i o n f o r f u t u r e p o p l l a t i o n p o l i c y i n China: 2 . w i l l f u t u r e ecoao.-'.c g r o v t h i n t e r a c t w i t h t h e b t r t h planning program i n a f f e c t i n g f e r t i l r : r a t e s ? There a r e two p o s s i b i l i t i e s . O n e is t h a t i n China's u n u s u a l ::rcumstances - ( i n p a r t i c u l a r i t s v e r y low f e r j i l i t y g i v e s - c . - - /1 The C - World 1 ernment e s t i a a c e of t h e 1979 c r u d e b i r t h r a t e is Q.9. a n k e s t i m a t e f o r 1979 i s 21.1. / 2 Using t h e c r u d e I - ~ b i r t h r a t e of 21.1 f o r 1979 and t h e United H a t i o n a s a g e The I - d i s t r i b u t i o n of t h e p o p u l a t i o n and of f e r t i l i t y , t h e World Ba k popula- t i o n p r o j e c t i o n model produces a t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e of about 2.75 f o r 1979 ( s e e Supplementary Paper XI). - - - --.-- - - Figure I: FERTILITY IN REUTfOt TO INCOME: DEVELOPIXG~ -.--- WUlrTRIES, 1978 -- 0 I. & I . ' I * - 7-wnm T m ~ ' $ 8 0Wi.i. r el* brt 0- I II - - -- 6 - 6 &Igo e L h i India a Ewet Y.*. .Oh .. - s- ee- l w . ad -\-. eenril NORM FOR 87 BEVELWING COUNTRIES 4 - *Sri l . ' x& br-• ,MJ,@, 3 - 0- Kan. em .- -- 2 China/c I I I t I 1 - - - 0 s500 up00 Sl500 SZOOO 12200 s3.ooo &- G W PER ~ ~ERSON.1978IUA D O L U R S ~ ~ l Source: Updated from Sancy B i r d s a l l , P o p u l a t i o n and Poverty i n Countries; World a t n k S t a f f Working ?ape-t Xo. .LO?, (Wash Figure 1-38 ( r e ~ r o d u c e df r o n P o p u l a t i o n Bull=c:r: 35:5, Washington DC, Population Xeference Bureau, December 195.:. See Appendix a of S t a f f Slorking Paper f o r an e x p l a n a t i o n of -7.2 procedc~re w e d t o d e r i v e t h e l i n e shown. China and Cu3a ara n o t included. i n t h e estixcation of t h i s l i n e , b u t t h e i r 1oca:ions on a h i s Zigure do i n d i c a t e t h e i r t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e and p e r person. - a/ The t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e i n d i c a t e s t h e average nunber o f c h i l d r e 3 t h a t would be born t o each vonan i n a p o p u l a t i o n i f each were t o Tive through . her c h i l d b e a r i n g y e a r s ( u s u a l l y considered ages 15-49] b e a r i g c h i l d r e n a t t h e s a n e r a t e a s vorren or' those ages a c t u a l l y d i d i n a g i en year. I 4 - b/ GNP (gross n a t i o n a l product) per person is t h e v a l u e of good s e r v i c e s produced i n a country, p l u s n e t income r e c e i v e d f r o from i n v e s t n e n t s and c i t i z e n s ' e a r n i n g s o u t s i d e t h e c o u n t n , person r e s i d i n g i a t h e country in a given year. - ol E s t i n a t e d f e r t i l i t y and GXP f o r China a j e f o r 1979. .  1 income), i n c r e a s i n g income might a c t u a l l y i n c r e a s e t h e demand f o r ( c h i l d r e n . The second i s t h a t c o n t i n u i n g economic growth and i n c r e a s i n g i n c o e w i l l , as h a s been t h e r u l e elsewhere, r e i n f o r c e government programs d e s i g n d t o - reduce f e r t i l i t y . & I A Simple Model --- I - . i Underlying t h e a n a l y s i s r e p o r t e d i s a s i m p l e model e x p l i n i n g c u r r e n t l e v e l s of f e r t i l i t y and changes o v e r time i n f e r t i l i t y . f h e f e r t i l i t y l e v e l a t a p o i n t i n time is assumed t o be some f u n c t i o n both of a v a r i e t y of socioeconomic f a c t o r s and of s p e c i f i c governmental programs desig9ed t o a f f e c t i fertility.12 Higher l e v e l s of socioeconomic development reduce f h r t i l i t y by r a i s i n g t h y c o s t s of c h i l d r e n ( a s t h e wage of a d u l t s r e l a t i v e t o k h i l d r e n i n c r e a s e s , and a s t h e r e l a t i v e p r i c e of housing and e d u c a t i o n i n c d e c r e a s i n g t h e i r d e s i r a b i l i t y ( a s a l t e r n a t i v e means of s u p p o r t £0 o l d age a r e provided and as c h i l d r e n c o n t r i b u t e r e l a t i v e l y l e s s t income). Government programs reduce f e r t i l i t y by lowering t h e co c o n t r a c e p t i o n s o t h a t p a r e n t s who wish c a n restrict f a m i l y s i z e e t h e c a s e of C h l l a , t h e Government h a s a l s o encouraged l a t e n a r r i a r e d u c e s c r u d e b r r t h r a t e s ) , promulgated a small-family norm, and +sx a v a r i e t y of s o c i a l and f i n a x i a l i n c e n t i v e s and d i s i n c e n t i v e s t o r f e r t i l i t y . j 4 Obviously, t h e C w o broadly-def i n e d e i f e c t s can i n t e e a c h o t h e r r f o r example, g o v e r n s e n t programs a r e l i k e l y t o be mos where socioeconomic c o n d i t i o n s r e i n f o r c e government o b j e c t i v e s . , - /1 - /2 For d i s c u s s i o n and and review of t h e n e g a t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p f o cross-country a n a l y s e s , s e e B i r d s a l l , 1980. A p o s i t i v e ef f e c h a s been noted over s h o r t p e r i o d s of time v i t h i n t h e United S i n t h e 1950s compared t o 1930s; i n c r e a s e s could occur i n deve c o u n t r i e s , s a y , i f h i g h e r incone and more employment opportun reduced marriage age o r make more a v a i l a b l e t h e housing space consumption i t e m s r e q u i r e d f o r c h i l d r e n . T h i s d i v i s i o n i n t o two sets of f a c t o r s was f i r s t formally t e s t e d u s i n g cross-cpuntry d a t a by Xauldin and , B e r e l s o n , 1978. I nd i n of income a t e s , e.g. oping ties and o t h e r - /3 We have no d a t a on t r e n d s i n age a t marriage- To t h e s .i i n t h e second s e t of f a c t o r s . I n f a c t , of c o u r s e . a f f e c t e d by economic c o n d i t i o n s . I n c r e a s i n g = employment could t h e o r e t i c a l l y i n c r e a s e ) p o s s i b l e t h a t improving economic ; a c c e s s t o jobs f o r young people l o v e r marriage age. U n f o r t u n a t e l y , ve cannoc s o r t o u t t h e s e I4 For d i s c u s s i o n of China's b i r t h planning program and of  I 1 . S i m i l a r l y , t h e change i n f e r t i l i t y d u r i n g a p e r i o d is l i k e l y t o be a f f e c t e d b o t h by t h e development l e v e l a t t h e s t a r t of t h e p e r i o d and by 1 i n p u t s t o t h e government h i g h planning p r o g r a m (Obviously, chan es i n development i n d i c a t o r s and in governnent programs throughout t h e e r i o d c o u l d also m a t t e r , and t h e i r e f f e c t s could be examined v e r e rime -cries d a t a on them a v a i l a b l g in a d d i t i o n t o t i m e s e r i e s on f e r t i l i t y . ) I U n f o r t u n a t e l y , w e have no d i r e c t measures of i n p u t s t o t h e b i r t h I planning campaign in v a r i o u s r e g i o n s , as d i s t i n c t from o t h e r i n d i a t o r s of socioeconomic l e v e l . Without data on.. b i r t h p l a n n i n g i n p u t s , we nnot t e s t t h e e x t e n t t o which t h e s e i n p u t s have m a t t e r e d , though i t is c l e a t h a t f o r t h e c o u n t r y as a v h o l e they have been i m p o r t a n t , based on C h i n a ' s l o w f e r t i l i t y compared t o o t h e r c o u n t r i e s . I We can, however, u s e t h e c r o s s - s e c t i o n d a t a w e do h a v e , o n income and s e v e r a l o t h e r i n d i c a t o r s of socioeconomic development, t o e s t l m a t e s e v e r a l s e t s of e q u a t i o n s of t h e f o l l o w i n g form, u s i n g o r d i n a r y ldast squares regression: I ~ fertility 1 ) Bo +Bi Xi+ E i change in f e r t i l i t y ) where Bo is a c o n s t a n t t e r n , t h e X i s a r e a s e r i e s of development indicators, t h e B ~ sa r e t h e e s t i m a t e d c o e f f i c i e n t s or' tho i n d i c a t o r s , and Ei /s che unexplained e r r o r . To t h e e x t e n t t h a t b i r t h planning progran i~4 are ,its u n c o r r e l a t e d w i t h t h e socioeconomic i n d i c a t o r s i n c l u d e d , t h e i r ef e c t s w i l l be included in t h e unexplained r e s i d u a l . . A A second d i f f i c u l t y v i t h t h e a n a l y s i s of change i n f e r t i l i t y is t h a t while o u r p r o v i n c i a l data on f e r t i l i t y a r e f o r 1975 and 19791 o u r d a t a on income are f o r 1979 o n l y , at t h e end r a t h e r t h a n t h e beginning of i r h r p e r i o d of concern. W e a r e thus f o r c e d t o use income i n 1979 as a proxy f s : incolce i n t h e 1975 - 1979 period. I I - Data . l . II I W e have i n f o r m a t i o n (made a v a i l a b l e t o t h e World Bank elonornic ' mission t o China i n t h e f a l l of 1980) a t t h r e e l e v e l s - provinciai, 1979, on a proxy f o r per c a p i t a _ income i n 1979, on t h e p e r c e n t of t h e p o p u l a t i o n l i v i n g i n urban a r e a , on h o s p i t a l hads per person, an on rhe p r o p o r t i o n of r e l a t i v e l y low-ieorae producrion teams i n each provknce (compiled by t h e mission from v a r i o u s s o u r c e s ) . 1 p r e f e c t u r a l , and county. For each of t h e 21 p r o v i n c e s , 5 autonom us r e g i o n s , and 3 major m u n i c i p a l i t i e s i n t & which the c o u n t r y i s a d s i n i s t r a t i e l y d i v i d e d , w e 'have i n f o r m a t i o n o$ t h e r a t e of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e i n 1 78 and (The d a t a on m t C r a l i n c r e a s e r a t e s , income and p e r c e n t urban a r e l i s t e d by province i* T a b i e 8 ac t h e end of t h i s paper.) 'or che 12 p r e f e c t u r e s of t h e n o r t h w e s t e t n province of Gansu we have crude b i r c h and deach r a t e s from 1972 t a 1979, f o r income per person i n 1979. For tho 68 c o u n t i e s of t h e province of J i a n g s u , we have data on crude b i r t h and d e a t h 1979, a proxy f o r income -cc p e r s o n in 1979, and i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t f o u r of t h e c o u n t i e s a r e urban. T a b l e 1 shows t h e means and s t a n d a r d d e v i r t i o r i s of t h e v a r i a b l e s used in t h e anal36 . s. .- -- . . . . The v i t a l r a t e s a r e based on t h e v i t a l ' r e g i s t r a t i o n s y s t e m , which though i m p e r f e c t is probably more e f f e c t i v e t h a n i n most developin$ countries./l I n urban a r e a s households r e g i s t e r w i t h t h e l o c a l po s t a t i o n ; r G i s t r a t i o n is probably c l o s e t o u n i v e r s a l s i n c e urtan-r f o r f w d and c l o t h a r e o b t a i n e d on t h e b a s i s of t h e r e g i s t e r s . a r e a s , permanent r e g i s t e r s a r e k e p t w i t h t h e p r o d u c t i o n b r i g a d e o r a t t h e comnune c e n t e r . S i n c e food i s grovn and d i s t r i b u t e d w i t h i n t h e v i 4 l a g e i t s e l f , food d i s t r i b u t i o n is less c l o s e l y t i e d t o t h e r e g i s t r a t i o n s y s t e m , and t h e r e may be some undercounting of b i r t h s . T h i s may have been p a r t i c u - l a r l y t h e case i n t h e last few y e a r s of t h e 1970s, g i v e n i n c r e a s i n c e n t r a l government p r e s s u r e on l o c a l c a d r e s t o a c h i e v e reduce f e r t i l i t y . p o s s i b l e t h a t b i r t h r a t e s a r e h i g h e r in r u r a l a r e a s r e l a t i v e t o urqan arras t h a n measured, and were h i g h e r in t h e late 1970s r e l a t i v e t o t h e 4 d - 1 9 7 0 s 4 t isthus than measured.& Theref o r e , though some u n d e r r e p o r t i n g is l i k e l y , ' it is probably g r e a t e s t i n t h e poorer r e g i o n s ; o u r r e s u l t s would t h u s tedd t o u n d e r s t a t e n e g a t i v e e f i e c t s of t h e income l e v e l s on v i t a l r a t e s . Use o f . t h e t o t a l f e r t i l i t y rate i n s t e a d of t h e crude b i r d h would be p r e f s r a b l e were it a v a i l a b l e , s i n c e t h e c x d e b i r c h r z z a is z f f e c t q d by a ;= couirorjition riovfrrces v f t h a krger pctpoitioo cjL i;c;-,j;; ~ ij ~ : . i l d = ;'Ltd A-~; v i l l have h i g h e r crude b i r t h rates even f o r t h e same a v e r a g e numbe s of c h i l d r e n per woman. 3 However, t h e t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e is u n a v a i l a l e . Crude b i r t h r a t e s are h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h t h e t o t a l i e r z i l i t y rate acqoss c o u n t r i e s , / 2 and if anything, u e would e x p e c t d i f f e r e n c e s i n age ~ c o m p o s i t i o ~ a c r o s sr e g i o n s w i t h i n one country t o be s a a l l e r t h a n - d i l f f e r e n c e s a c r o s s c o u n t r i e s s i n c e c o u n t r i e s - d i l l nave had g r e a t e r p a s t v a r i a t i o n i n f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y r a t e s . I For t h e province-level a n a l y s i s , v e use t h e r a t e of :xtu{al i n c r e a s e as t h e dependent v a r i a b l e , as ; e do n o t have provincc .:-e*rql dsra . on b i r t h o r d e a t h r a t e s . As a measure of f e r t i l i t y , t h i s is zir f$om i d e a l s i n c e it r e f l e c t s d e a t h as w e l l as b i r t h r a t e s . However, f o r r5r q8 c o u n t r i e s and 12 p r e f e c t u r e s where a comparison i s p o s s i b l e , t h e rqnge of d e a t h r a t e s is much smaller t h a n t h e range of d e a t h rates; a s a r e s u l t t h e . * n a t u r a l rate of i n c r e a s e r e f l e c t s p r i m a r i l y t h e b i r t h r a t e . This assumption is c o r r o b o r a t e d i n o u r p r e f e c t u r e and county l e v e l d a t a ; t h e c o r r e l a t i o n of b i r t h and n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e s r a t e s is .SO f o r the p r 4 f e c t u r e s sue .98 f o r the c o u n t i e s i n 1979. For b e p r o v i n c e s , b i r t h r g e s nd rates - - 4 of i n c r e a s e are a l s o probably h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d , with less v a f i a t i a n i n t h e - * I I - 11 See 3 a & s t e r , 1980, f o r a d i s c u s s i o n of t h e v i t a l r e g i s r r a c i o n s y s t n . - 12 Mauldin and a e r e l s o n , 1978, f i n d t h e c o r r e l a t i o n of crude birr$ r a t s d e c l i n e s with t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e d e c l i n e (1965-75) t o b e 0.97 i n a sample of c o u n t r i e s . I  T a b l e 1: MEANS AY - - D STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF VARIABLES USED L! 4ALYSIS /a Variable P r o v i n c i a l l e v e l d a t a , n = 29 ~ 1.---.--- --- - - Rate o f n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e , 1965 /b 28.95 R a t e of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e , 1978 12.97 R a t e of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e , 1979 12.35 Income p e r c a p i t a proxy, 1979 94.8 N a t u r a l l o g of income per c a p i t a proxy, 1979 4 50 P e r c e n t of p o p u l a t i o n urban, 1979 17.6 T o t a l p o p u l a t i o n , 1979 32.69 x lo6 I n d i c a t o r s , autonomous r e g i o n ( t a k e s v a l u e 1 f o r autonomous r e g i o n s , 0 e l s e w h e r e ) .I7 P e r s o n s p e r commune bed, 1979 1,766 Prefecture-level (Gansu) d a t a , n = 11 /d CBR, 1972 CBR, 1973 CBR, 1974 CBR, 1975 CBR, 1976 CBR, 1977 CBR, 1978 CBR, 1979 Income p e r c a p i t a proxy, 1979 N a t u r a l l o g of income praxy, 1979 County l e v e l ( J i a n s s u ) d a t a . n = 68 CgIl, 1975 CBR, 1979 CBR, 1975 minus CBR, 1979 CEB, 1955 zfnus CBR, 1373, d i v i d e d by Bil, 1975 Income per c a p i t a proxy, 1979 N a t u r a l l o g of income proxy Urban i n d i c a t o r ( f o r 4 c o u n t y t o m s ) - Note: /a Rates of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e and :rude p o p u l a t i o n p e r year. 8 b i r t h r a t e s (C9R) a r e Unueighted means of a r e a l e v e l d a d . They a r e not p o ~ u l a t i o n 7 r thousand means. /b 27 p r o v i n c e s only. See T a b l e A-21 of ,Annex I ( P o p u l a t i o n , H e a l t h and Y u t r i t i o n ) province-by-province d a t a on a v a i l a b i l i t y of commune h o s p i t a l w e l l a s o t h e r h o s p i t a l beds. - ./d Data on a l l v a r i a b l e s a v a i l a b l e f o r 11 of 12 p r e f e c t u r e s . i n c r e a s e r a t e s , s i n c e d e a t h r a t e s v a r y l e s s than b i r t h r a t e s . &aid t h i s means use of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e r a t e p r o v i d e s a s t r o n g t e s t of any hy r e g a r d i n g e f f e c t s o f income on f e r t i l i t y . 4 The income v a r i a b l e w e u s e a l s o r e q u i r e s a word of e x p l a t i o n . It is t h e amount of yuan d i s t r i b u t e d t o workers on communes, p e r wo k e r . I t e x c l u d e s communal income t h a t is r e t a i n e d f o r comnunal e x p e n d i t u r e s 1 ( c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t s , h e a l t h o u t l a y s , etc.) a s w e l l as t h e vage and s a l a r y income of t h o s e working i n c i t i e s . . Thus, i t does n o t by any means e p r e s e n t a l l income g e n e r a t e d , nor does i t r e p r e s e n t consumption, i n s o f a r as much consumption of s e r v i c e s o c c u r s through t h e commune system and is no d i r e c t l y p a i d f o r by i n d i v i d u a l s . It is n o n e t h e l e s s , a r e a s o n a b l e income given two assumptions: t h e p r o p o r t i o n a t e amount of income g o u t s i d e of t h e communes i s n o t too d i f f e r e n t a c r o s s t h e u n i t s conce t h e p r o p o r t i o n a t e amount r e t a i n e d and t h u s n o t d i s t r i b u t e d , is n o t + o , d i f f e r e n t ./L \ I R e s u l t s of A n a l y s i s ---- . - I Three major c o n c l u s i o n sumnarize our a n a l y s i s . Conclusicn 1: Dif f e r e ~ c ~in s l e v e l of develo?nent a c r o s s of China do r e s u l t i n d i f f e r e n c e s i n f e r t i l i t y l e v e l s . China f o l l o g e n e r a l p a t t e r n : fertility i s lower i n high-income r e g i o n s . Ih T a b l e 2 summarf.zes t h e r e s u l t s of v a r i o u s r e g r e s s i o n s of h e cr~de b i r t h rate i n s e l e c t e d a r e a s ( o r rate of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e i n h e c a s e of t h e c r o s s - s e c t i o n of p r o v i n c e s ) on t h e income per c a p i t a v a z i a b l The . r e s u l t s a r e s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d . The incone v a r i a b l e a l o n e a c c o u n t s £0 as m c h as 45% of t h e v a r i a n c e i n c r u d e b i r t h r a t e s .Tithin one p r o v i n c e , and almost o n e - t h i r d of t h e v a r i a n c e i n rates -of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e a c r o s s a l l t e provinces. The income v a r i a b l e is n o t c i g n i f i c a n t i n t h e p r o v i n c e f o r which we have only 11 o b s e r v a t i o n s , though i t h a s t h e same n e g a t i v e s i g n close to s t a t i s t i c a l l y significant. - /1 It should be noted t h a t i n t h e estimates below, c o e f f i c i e n t s on t h e incone v a r i a b l e w i l l b e b i a s e d tovard zero by e r r o r s i n t h e z e a s rement of income, so t h a t a c o e f f i c i e n t vhich i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t from ue z e r o , e i t h e r p o s i t i v e l y o r n e g a t i v e l y , r e p r e s e n t s a s t r o n g e r c a s than o t h e r w i s e f o r whatever h y p o t h e s i s i s being t e s t e d . C46400/~74186/~2661/50 - -9 if a l l t h e s e f a c t o r s c o u l d be c o n t r o l l e d f o r , t h e p u r e "income" ef t e c t i s d i f f e r e n c e s i n f e r t i l i t y can 'be a t t r i b u t e d t o development l e v e l . There i s some e v i d e n c e t h a t f e r t i l i t y i s lower i n urban i r e a s , c o n t r o l l i n g f o r income. Table 3 shows r e s u l t s of r e g r e s s i o n s f o r t h e p r o v i n c e s (columns 1 and 2) and t h e J i a n g s u c o u n t i e s (columns 3 and 4 ) . The i n d i c a t o r f o r county t o m s i n J i a n g s u i s n e g a t i v e and s i g n i f i c a n t (column 3 ) i n 1975; a c r o s s p r o v i n c e s t h e c o e f f i c i e n t on p e r c e n t of p o p u l a t i o n i n urban areas h a s a n e g a t i v e s i g n but i s n o t s t a t l s t i c a l i y s i g n i f i c a n t (cofumns 1 and 2). O f f i c i a l d a t a on crude b i r t h rates f o r t h e n a t i o n a s a wh+le do i n d i c a t e a s u b s t a n t i a l d i f f e r e n c e between urban and rdrd r a t e s , e i g . Cg,c 1971 t h e rates were 21.9 and 31.9 b i r t h per thousand t o r u r a a n aim r u r a l , and f o r 1579 were 13.9 and 18.5 (Annex I, P o p u l a t i o n , i i e a l t h ard X t t c i t i u n , T a b l e A-2). The o v e r a l l weakness of t h e urban v a r i a b l e s Ln t h e p r p v i n c i a i l e v e l r e g r e s s i o n could be r e a l , i . a . , because lower f e r t i l i t y i n +re h i g h l y u r b a n i z e d p r o v i n c e s i s e n t i r e l y due to h i g h e r income ( s o t h a t t h e r b L s no "urban" e f f e c t p e r se once incone is c o n t r o l l e d f o r / 3 ) ; o r L t c o u l b be a n a r t i f a c t of t h e d a c a , i f u n d e r r s g i s t r a t i o n of b i t t h y i n r u r i l a r e a k is g r e a t e r t h a n i n urban a r e a s . I h a s not pushed f a m i l y planning. The s t r o n g n e g a t i v e e f f e c t of t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n (column 2) w e cannot e x p l a i n . The h i g h e r - f e r t i l i t y autbnonous - /1 F e r t i l i t y of the poor t e n d s t o be h i g h e r i n c o u n t r i e s Z i n which f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e has begun, but is c o n f i n e d l a r g e l y '@ t h e F t t e r o f f gr?ups, e.g. Colombia and B r a z i l . Graham, 1979. - See P o t t e r , 1978 and X e r r i k k and * f o r c o m p i l a t i o n of World F e r t i l i t y Survey d a t a to i l l u s t r a t e the p o i n t . I I -- f u l l e r exploration with l e s s aggregated d a t a , is t h a t h i g h p p u l a t i o n density, particularly i n r u r a l areas, discourages f e r t i l i t y . h T a b l e 4 summarizes t h e r e s u l t s o f i n c l u d i a g t h e i a ) o m a t i o n o n - - t h e p r o p o r t i o n of l o r i n c o m e p r o d u c t i o n teams i n t h e p r o v i n c d - l e v e l a n a l y s i s . T h i s v a r i a b l e , which r e f l e c t s t o some a x t e n t t h e g r o p c r t i o n d f :kc p z p u l a t i o n l i v i n g a t low l e v e l s o f consumption, h a s a p o s i t i v e e f f e c t o f e r t i l i t y . Its c o e f f i c i e n t i s s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t (column 1 ) ; w i t h i t i n c l u s i o n t h e c o e f f i c i e n t on t h e p e r c a o i t a income v a r i a b l e becomes i n s i g n f i c a n t . When otner variables are i n c l ~ i e d v i t h i t (column 2 ) , i t s e x p e c t e e f f e c t h o l d s , though i t i s no l o n g e r s i g n i f i c a n t . This t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t f e r t i l i t y i s , i n China a s elsewhera, low& where l i v i n g s t a n d a r d s , broadly d e f i n e d , a r e higher. T a b l e 4: THE EFFECT MEASURES OF IKCREASE, 29 PROVINCES I Dependent v a r i z h l e : (1 r a t e of .. i o n a l inclf e a s e , 1979 (2) 1 I -- - - - -. Constant 15.51 i6.25 P r o p o r t i o n of low- 0.08* income p r o d u c t i o n teams ( 0 -04) (0.04 N a t u r a l l o g of income -1.17 -1.37 (2.39) I n d i c a t o r f o r autonomous 3.7~1 region (1.63) Percent population '-0.04 i n urban areas (0.05) . i= Standard e r r o r s a r e i n p a r e n t h e s e s . The a s t e r i s k i n d i c a t e s t h c o e f f i c i e n t i s s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t a t l e a s t a t t h e 5% 1eq:el. I - /1 The c o r r e l a t i o n betveen p e r c e n t of p o p u l a t i o n urban and t o t i s n e g a t i v e ; t h e more urban p r o v i n c e s a r e n o t Chose w i t h t h populations.  dl C o n c l u s i o n 2: b r e w e r , income d i f f e r e n c e s h e l p t o ex l a i n d i f f e r e n c e s n o t o n l y i n f e r t z l i t y l e v e l s b u t a l s o i n rates o f f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e betwec I 1975 and 1979 among c o u n t i e s of J i a n g s u province.) C o u n t i e s v i t h h i g h e r income e u y = r i e n c e d more f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e , c o n t r o l l i n b f o r t h e 1975 c r u d e b i r t h rate. I I T a b l e 5 shows t h e r e s u l t s o f r e g r e s s i n g t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e 1975 and 1979 b i r t h r a t e s on income ( c o l u n n 1 ) and on income nd t h e 1975 c r u d e b i r t h r a t e ( c o l u n n 2 ) . The i n c o n e v a r i a b l e h a s a n e g a t i v e s i g n i n c o l m n 1; c r u d e b i r t h r a t e s f e l l mar, i n lower-income r e g i o n s 4n a point-by-point b a s i s . But t h i s was l a r g e l y because p o i n t r e d u c t i d n s i n T a b l e 5: THE EFFECT OF INCOME ON CRUDE BIlTH RATE D E C L I ~ ~ -S JIANCSU PROVINCE I Dependent v a r i a b l e : Crude b i r t h r a t e 1975 minus c r u d e b i r t h rate 1979 Dependent v a r i a le: (CBR 75 minus C B 79) d i v i d e d by caa) 75 i; Constant Income CBR 1975 r e I . I Standard e r r o r s i n parentheses. The a s t e r i s k i n d i c a t e s t h e c b e f f i c i e n t -i-s'~t=fi'ist-icalls ~i g n i f i c a n t a t l e a s t a t t h e 5: level. 1 r a t e s tend t o b e g r e a t e r f r & h i g h e r l e v e l s . Once t h e 1975 s t a r t i n i s c o n t r o l l e d f o r ( c o l u n n 2E, income per c a p i t a h a s a p o s i t i v e e f f e amount o f b i r t h r a t e d e c l i n e . T h i s r e i n f o r c e s t h e f i r s t c o n c l u s i o n { The l e v e l of d e v e l o p a e n t n o t o n G had a n e g a t i v e e f f e c t on f e r t i l i t y l e y e l s i n - 1979, b u t had a p o s i t i v e e f d c t on t h e amount of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e fietween 1975 and 1979. I I - /l ! The c o r r e l a t i o n S e t r e e n p e r c c q t of p o p u l a t i o n urban and t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n i s n e g a t i v e ; t h e n o r e urban p . . > v i n c e s a r e n o t t h o s e v i t h t h e l a r g e s t populations. I I  -- ~46400/~74711/D2661/55 - 13 - 13 231umn 3, t h e dependent ' v a r i a b l e i s t h e p e r c e n t a g e d e c l i n e i n t h e c r u d = b i r t h :-rite o v e r t h e p e r i o d , r a t h e r t h a n t h e d i f f e r e n c e . The income v a r i a b l e r t t a i n s i t s p o s i t i v e s i g n b u t becomes s t a t i s t i c a l l y insignificant. I I Conclusion 3: aetween i 9 7 5 and 1979 t h e n e e i t i v e ispa$: o f incame (and probably of o t h e r socioeconomic f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t ~ , w i t h incdme) on f e r t i l i t y h a s weakened; - . Income a c c o u n t s f o r a lower p r o p o r t i o n o f o v e r a l l b i r t $ r a t e d g f f e r e n c e s i n 1979 t h a n i n 1975. I n T a b l e 6 , w e show t h e r e s u l 4 s o f r e g r e s s i o n s of t h e b i r t h r a t e i n 1975 ( c o l u n n s 1 and 2 - column 4 i s i d e n t i c a l r o t h e column 6 r e g r e s s i o n i n T a b l e 1 ) and i n 1979 (coqumn 3 and 4 ) , f o r t5e 68 J i a n g s u c o u n t i e s . The amount o f v a r i a n c e e x p l a i n q d by income a l o n e d r o p s from 452 i n 1975 t o 20% i n 1979 (columns 1 an4 3 ) . ( T h i s r e s u l t s h o l d s when o t h e r f u n c t i o n a l forms a r e used, such a g q u a d r a t i c i n income and income e n t e r e d i n l i n e a r form.) The Beta c o e f f i c i n t / l ( n o t shown) on income d r o p s from -.67 i n 1975 t o - . L 5 i n L979. The e - , f e c r o l ' u r b a n a r e a s a l s o d e c l i n e s (compare columns 2 and 4 ) . 1 I I Ta l e 6: CRUDE BR I m E 1975 AND 1979 JIAVGSU PROVIqCE -3, -- +-.. - I -- -- . Dependent v a r i a b l e : Eependznt v a r ~ i a b l e : 1975 CBR i3T.j caa, (1) (2) (3) K4 I I Constant 24.5 43.6 29.4 50.4 N a t u r a l l o g 3f -6.4W -6.06* -3.21* -3.1 L* income (0.879) (0.874) (0.784) (0.802) I Crude d e a t h r a t e , 0.361 +0.318 1975 (0.476) t0.436) I I Urban i n d i c a r o r -2.76* t1.23 (1.39) .(I .27) I 9 t L R~ 0.45 0.48 0.20 '0.22 Standard e r r o r s i n p a r e n t h e s e s . The a s t e r i s k i n d i c a t e t h e c o e f f i c i e n t i s s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t a t l e a s t a t t h e 5% level:: - * L 8 e - /l The Beta c o e f f i c i e n t r e f l e c t s t h e impact o f t h e inde5endent v a r i a b l e on t h e dependent v a r i a b l e , a s c a p t u r e d i n t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s shown and s t a n d a r d i z e d f o r t h e v a r i a n c e i n t h e v a r i a b l e s used.  Even i n t h e one y e a r between 1978 and 1979 t h e r e may h v e been a 1 s i m i l a r d e c l i n e i n t h e impact of i n c o n e , and c e r t a i n l y p i n c e 196 t h e r e h a s b e e n a d e c l i n e . Table 7 shows t h e r e s u l t s of r e g r e s s i o n s o f t h e n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e a c r o s s provinces i n t h e t h r e e years - 1365, 197 v h i c h we have p r o v i n c i a l d a t a , on t h e 1979 income d a t a . The Sam e v i d e n t . The p r o p o r t i o n of v a r i a n c e e x p l a i n e d d r o p s from o v e r 5 and t h e n 23% (columns 1, 3 and 5). The v a l u e o f t h e income coef d r o p s from -.13 t o 0.05, a s t h e Beta c o e f f i c i e n t ( n o t shown) d r o -0.72 t o -0.55 t o -0.48. T a b l e 7: ACCOUHTING FOR RATES OF NATURAL INCREASE, 19- 5, -. 1978 AND 1979 4 27 p r o v i n c e s /a - (1) 1965 (2) (3) 1978 (4 (5) 1979 (6) - -- 1 Constant 41.4 86.2 20.0 48.1 17.4 1 36.6 Income -0.1 32* -0.0733* (0.0533" (0.3258) (0.0220) (0.0192) Natural log of -12.7* -7.79* -5.39* income (2.99) (2.38) (2.08) R~ 0.52 0.42 0.30 0.30 0.23 0.21 - /a The 1965 r a t e of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e was n o t a v a i l a b l e f o r 2 p r o t h e y were, t h e r e f o r e , excluded from a l l 3 r e g r e s s i o n s . The 1979 c r u d e b i r t h r a t e s i n t h e J i a n g s u sample r a n g e t o 21.7 p e r thousand; t h e 197.5 range i s g r e a t e r , from 10.8 t o 25. t h e r e d u c t i o n i n t h e e x p l a n a t o r y power of income miqkt be i n t e r p r r e s u l t of t h i s squeezing of c r u d e b i r t h r a t e s i n t o a range c l o s e t o r e p l a c e - ment-level f e r t i l i t y , where t h e r e may w e l l be a f l o o r ox f u r t h e r d , e c l i n e s . T h i s cannot, however be t h e e n t i r e e x p l a n a t i o n . The c o e f f i c i e n t f v a r i a t i o n /1 of t h e 1979 C32 i s .18, o n l y s l i g h t l y lower t i a n .20?for 1375. Even w i t h i n t h e s m a l l e r range, t h e r e c o n t i n u e t o be d i f f e r e n c e s a a r o s s c o u n t i e s i n b i r t h r a t e s i n 1979; income s i n p l y i s n o t a s h i g h l y a s s o c i a t e d with these differences. E - I I /1 The s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n d i v i d e d by t h e mean o f a v a r i a b l e . I  A second e x p l a n a t i o n is t h a t b i r t h r a t e d e c l i n e s i n t h e p e r i o d , though p o s i t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d with income ( c o n c l u s i o n 2 a b less p o s i t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d t h a n were t h e e a r l i e r d e c l i n e s p r i o r t There is no doubt t h a t f o r J i a n y s u province as a vhole-, i n f e r t i l i t y took p l a c e prior. t o 1975. The o f f i c i a l l y . r a t e f o r China a s a vhole v a s 38 i n 1965, and t h e crude d e a t h This r e s u l t e d i n a 1965 r a t e of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e i n 1965 u a s lower, 27.4. Assuming a crude b i r t h r a t e f o r J i a n g s u pf a t thousand i s , t h e r e f o r e , r e a s o n a b l e f o r 1965. T h i s i m p l i e s a v between 1965 and 1975 (from 35 t o about 18 11 p e r thousand), o r 5% a n n u a l d e c l i n e , compared t o a d e c l i n e o f 7 7 ~ between 1975 18 t o 151, o r a n a v e r a g e 4.25% a n n u a l d e c l i n e . ( I f much of a c t u a l l y took p l a c e a f t e r 1970, as is t h e case f o r China a s a n n u a l p e r c e n t a g e d e c l i n e from 1970 t o 1975 uould be even . W . e assume t h a t t h e s e d e c l i n e s , which are d r a m a t i c by i n t k r n a t i o n a l s t a n d a r d s , were t h e r e s u l t not only of improvenents i n g e n e r a l economic con'ditions, but a l s o of t h e b i r t h planning campaign, which d i d not begin i n e a r n e s t u n t i l 1972. I t is p l a u s i b l e t h a t i n t h e i n i t i a l period (1972 t o 1975): t h e e f f e c t s of t h e new p o l i c y were g r e a t e s t i n high-income a r - ~ l s , where t h e environment f o r reduced f e r t i l i t y was mre a u s p i c i o u s . T h i s ould r e s u l t i n growing d i f f e r e n t i a l i n f e r t i l f t y Lor s e v e r a l j e d r s . I t ij ii;a ~ l i i u s f 5 l e t h a t suhsequenciy t n e r e i a c i v e impacc or t h e u n v i r o ~ r ~ u e ~~t ier;riilrci, a t; fkcL;lar r e d u c t i o n s v e r e due clore and m r e t o t h e b i r t h planning o l i c y a d accom- panying pro3rams. Such a pattern of i n c r e a s i n g and then d e c l i n i n g d i f f e r e n - t i a l s , a p p e a r s t o 'have occurred e l s r v h e r e . b i r t h c o n t r o l 2rograms o f t e n k v e t h e i r the s t r o n g e s t impact on f e r t i l i t y i n t h e l e a s t modern a r e a s , vhere pre-program f e r t i l i t y i s r y p i c a l l y h i g h e s t . / 2 I n countries of L d t i ~ aerica s u c h as Colombia and b r a z i l , where governrnezs provide less suppor; f o r b i r t h c o n t r o l programs, t h e c u r r e n t f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e s appear co be d r i v h n more by d e c l i n e s among t h e b e t t e r - o f i groups, and c u r r e n t f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r .. income group a r e s u b s t a n t i a 1 . E i A p a t t e r n of i n c r e a s i n g and then d e c l i n i n g d i f f e r e n t i a l s is a l s o suggested by d a t a on v i t a l r a t e s , which we have a s f a r back as 1 9 7 ' , f o r t h e 12 p r e f e c t y r e s of a n o t h e r p r o v i n c e , Gqnsu. I n F i g u r e 2, we have p o t t e d t h e .t - - 0 s - 11 16.2 per thousand i s t h e =an of the 1975 Caks f o r the 68 coun weighted by t h e i r 1979 ? o p u l a t i o n s . 14.8 i s t h e weighted clean - 12 See Herinalin, 1974, p. 319 and a i r d s a l l , 198U, Figure IV-1, p. 6 5 . - /3 P o t t e r , 1975; d i r d s a l l , 1980.  I mean 11 CBRs f o r t h e y e a r s 1972 t o 1979. Ur also show f o r each ( y e a r t h e s t a n d G d d e v i a t i o n or' t h e C 13as across the 12 u n i t s . I n the-bottqm half of t h e f i g u r e a r e p l o t t e d t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s of v a r i a t i o n f o r each c o e f f i c i e n t of v a r i a t i o n t a k e s t h e shape of an i n v e r t e d growing v a r i a t i o n i n t h e e a r l y 1970s i n Ci5Ks, and t h e n I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r F u t u r e Trends ----. - t .- -- ------- - --- . - II What does t h e t r e n d of crude b i r t h r a t e s i n F i g u r e 2 a n t h e a n a l y s i s above suggest f o r t h e f u t u r e ? F i r s t , t h e r e is no eviden e t h a t v economic growth and income g a i n s w i l l i n c r a a s e i e r t i l i t y . Even i 1979, income i s n e g a t i v e l y a s s o c i a t e d with b i r t h r a t e s . The u s u a l p a t t r n holz; i n China, presumably because h i g h e r income is a s s o c i a t e d with hig er wage rates f o r a d u l t s and a h i g h e r "price" of c h i l d r e n . However, i t i s also l i k e l y t h a t f u t u r e income g a i n s v i l not reduce f e r t i l i t y e i t h e r . The n e g a t i v e impact of income is a e c l i n ' n g . There a r e two p o s s i b l e and complementary e x p l a n a t i o n s . .'-One is t h t with 1 f e r t i l i t y a l r e a d y c l o s e t o replacement-level i n rmst r e g i o n s and n average w e l l below t h a t i n c o u n t r i e s a t similar income l e v e l s , . t h e scope o r d i f f e r e n c e s due t o socioeconomic c o n d i t i o n s has simply narroved. f (On a country l e v e l , t h i s is ~ l a l o g s u st o s a y i n s t h a t j-ncome d i f f e r e n c e s anong the 'J.K., z t c Z . S . L -: Ssi:zerlzz?2 z , :z . ant s Ls -.::;cr=d zc a c = ? - ~ r f 2 r 2ng f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n c e s , s i n c e f e r t i l i t y is a l r e a d y very low i n a l l t h r e e . ) I n terms of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e , China has a l r e a d y reached a p o i n t where r a p i d l y d i m i n i s h i n g r e t u n s t o f u r t h e r i u p r o v e n e n t s i n income (an e d u c a t i o n , employment, e t c . ) have s e t in. The complementary e x p l a n a t i o n is t h a t .che b i r r h plznnin has grown r e l a t i v e l y more important a s t h e e f f e c t s of development a l o n e have "used up," and as t h e campaign has been i n t e n s i f i e d . ( I - The i m p l i c a t i o n is t h a t f u r t h e r r e d u c t i o n s t h e governaent i s advocating t h e one-child family in. o r d e r t o s l o v p o p u l a t i o n growth are- n o t l i k e l y t o occur simply a s a r e s u l t of &eT%he.r income ~ a i n s . u r t h e r f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e must be o b t a i n e d p r i m a r i l y through i u r t h e r d i r e c t e f f o r t s on t h e p a r t of government, probably hot o n l y by improvement i n thb a c c e s s i - b i l i t y , s a f e t y and convenience of c s i ng c o n t r a c e p t i v e s a n d . of a b o r t i o n , but a l s o i n t h e form of contj-nued m o b i l i z a t i o n of s o c i a l p r e s s u r e and - inplementa t i o n of econogic i n c e n t i v e s and d i s i n c e n t i v e s . / 2 - z - /1 Unweighted mean of i w he 12 p r e f e c t u r e means. - /2 It is perhaps worth noting, however, chat t h e D i r e c t o r of t h e L a m i l y Planning O f f i c e of Zhang Shu County, J i a n g s u P r o v i n c e , a t r e s s e to one of us h e r S e l i z f t h a t S e t c c r success with b i r t h l i m i t a t i o n i n - t h c b f u t u r e w i l l depend i m p o r t a n t l y on emplodpent and r e t i r e m e n t po i c i e s adopted by t h e s t a t e . i  - r r b h 8 : POPULA~ION IEitGX b a A N . & m T U . .%if;S OF .ur-IW. LI'c~wE, Q OfSNLBLlt9 IER iV1Z.A LYC0.e . .. - - - - PO ~ L a t f ? . i 0 l l 1 areutal hciease Percent .115aa per capif. .,. predictad &r)' !a -- Rovfnca 1;6* 1919 ~ 9 i 9 !+ z .; AY ;9 . (1) (2) (3) (') (5) ( (6) - I - ---- -- - Uatiocul T o t a l 69L.22 970.32 11.6 - -! 11.35 83.60 I --. -- -- -- Sou~hwestX e s ~ i0 o~ ------ -. - Sic- Shaag 67.96 97.76 6.7 9.1 69.23 +.l Cuithou Shang 17.16 27.31 U.l 14.1 6.35 0.8 ' I- Shang 20.51 31.35 11.6 6.5 64.60 1 1.5 - Yorthver c Xegiol S h u d Shaag c.Oru Sheng 12.65 18.96 10.8 9.0 56.37 . -2.8 Qinph.i Sh-8 2.14 3.72 U.0 16.6 97.60 1 0.6 Central >outb, a x i o n 7-- E e s c Sheng 50.32 i1.39 L2.9 8.3 63.10 1 -4;3 -" Hubel Shaa 33.71 G.33 lL.O 3.7 ;06.18 I 0.3 rshui ~heng - 3 4 G.J3 U.7 3.5 70.33 ) 3.9 FuJirn Shang L6.i6 24.38 L2.0 11.2 57.90 I 0. i Ji.ng.1 Sheng 21.07 32.29 13.a 1l.i) 39.31 1 2.0 Shandong Sheng 55.52 72.32 10.8 9.5 79.17 ) -1.5 I North 3 e ~ i o a BdJing Shi 7.57 8-71 7.8 53.5 76-52 -3.2 Tlaajia Shi a.29 7.11 8.6 65.6 115.02 1 E a k l Shang 39.01 51.05 9.7 10.2 116.11 1 Shaaxi Sheng 18-01 24.17 9.2 U.6 110.22 1 -- X d ---- .Ysaaesl a Zlzhiau 6.24 18.52 U.2 U.2 76.82 ( -3.2 - a & 29.50 24.23 12.0 34.7 115.02 I 1.6 ilia ~ h e n g 17.d9 P.& U.9 21.7 116.11 3.3 Heilong jiaaq I Shaag 21.39 31.69 11.5 24.5 110.22 .7  BIBLIOGRAPHY I B a n i s t e r , J u d i t h . 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