Sierra Leone - Second Northern Integrated Agricultural Development Project

Document of The World Bank FILE Copy FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-2990-SL REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO SIERRA LEONE FOR A NORTHERN INTEGRATED AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT II March 18, 1981 This document has a restricted distributien and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS US$1.00 - Le 1.05 Le 1.0 - US$0.95 FISCAL YEAR Government of Sierra Leone: July 1 - June 30 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Unless otherwise stated, all weights and measures In this report are metric. 1 metric ton o 0.98 long ton - 37 bushels 1 hectare (ha) - 2.47 acres 1 kilometer (km) - 0.62 mile ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADF African Development Fund CARE Cooperative American Relief Everywhere EEC European Economic Community FAO Food and Agriculture Organization IADP Integrated Agricultural Development Project IDA International Development Association IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development MAF Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry MOW Ministry of Works PEMSU Planning, Evaluation and Monitoring Services Unit PMU Project Management Unit SLPMB Sierra Leone Produce Marketing Board UNDP United Nations Development Programme  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY SIERRA LEONE NORTHERN INTEGRATED AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT II CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: Republic of Sierra Leone Amount: SDRs 6.9 million (US$8.5 million) Terms: Standard Project Description: Over a five year period, the project would increase food production and farm incomes by expanding the assistance to small farmers begun under a Phase I project in the Northern Province (Ref. Cr 568/Ln 1138-SL). Development of upland and swampland rice, groundnuts, and maize started under the previous project, which covered 4,900 km2, would be extended to reach farmers in an additional 8,500 km2 area. Fruit tree cultivation and livestock promotion would be introduced. For these purposes, the project would provide: agricultural inputs, credit, extension services, feeder roads, village wells, and technical assistance. About 13,500 farm families, or about 40 percent of rural families in the area covered by the two projects, would benefit directly and eaLrn signifi- cantly higher incomes. All of these families earn below the relative rural poverty threshold for Sierra Leone of $67. Taking into account the general im- provement in agricultural services and the road and well components, nearly 50 percent of the rural families in the Phase I and II project areas would benefit. Normal risks associated with projects of this kind would be reduced by the fact that this is the second phase in the area and would build upon the organizaltional structure and techniques developed under the previous phase. The main risks would be that difficulties in strengthening the credit and extension services would have an adverse effect on achievement of production goals. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  - ii - Estimated Cost: I/ US$ Million Local Foreign Total Project Management 0.7 1.8 2.5 Extension, Training and Agronomy 1.6 2.4 4.0 Commercial Services 0.6 1.2 1.8 Production Inputs 2.0 2.8 4.8 Livestock Services 0.6 0.9 1.5 Engineering Services 0.9 1.0 1.9 Road Construction 0.3 2.6 2.9 Consultancy and Forestry Research 0.2 0.4 0.6 Monitoring and Evaluation 0.2 0.2 0.4 Total Base Cost 7.1 13.3 20.4 Physical Contingencies 0.2 0.6 0.8 Price Contingencies 2.5 4.0 6.5 TOTAL 9.8 17.9 27.7 1/ Net of taxes and duties from which the project is exempt. Financing Plan:' US$ Million Local Foreign Total IDA 3.0 5.5 8.5 UNDP - 2.0 2.0 ADF 1.9 6.6 8.5 IFAD 2.2 3.8 6.0 Government 2.7 - 2.7 TOTAL 9.8 17.9 27.7 Estimated Disbursements: US$ Million Bank FY82 FY83 FY84 FY85 FY86 FY87 Annual 2.5 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.6 Cumulative 2.5 4.2 5.5 6.7 7.9 8.5  - iii - Rate of Return: 21 percent Staff Appraisal Report: Report No. 3166-SL, February 27, 1981. Map: IBRD No. 14746R   INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE IDA TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO SIERRA LEONE FOR A NORTHERN INTEGRATED AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT II 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed development credit to Sierra Leone for the equivalent of SDRs 6.9 million (US$8.5 million) on standard IDA terms to help finance a Northern Integrated Agricultural Development Project II. The African Development Fund (ADF) is expected to help finance this project on a parallel basis with IDA with a loan of US$8.5 million equivalent, repayable over 50 years including 10 years of grace with an annual service charge of 0.75 percent. The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) is expected to help finance the project on a joint basis with IDA with a loan of US$6.0 million equivalent, repayable over 50 years including 10 years of grace at an annual interest rate of 1 percent. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is expected to contribute a Technical Assistance grant of US$2 million. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. A basic economic report, "Sierra Leone - Current Economic Position and Prospects" (No. 494a-SL dated November 28, 1974) was distributed to the Executive Directors. Subsequently, two updating Economic Memoranda (No. 1106-SL dated June 25, 1976 and No. 2153-SL dated June 26, 1979) have also been distributed to the Executive Directors. A Bank economic mission visited Sierra Leone in May 1980 and its principal findings are incorporated into this report. Country data sheets are contained in Annex I. Structural Characteristics 3. The economy of Sierra Leone is dualistic in character, a rela- tively small modern sector co-existing alongside a large traditional agri- cultural sector. For its source of income and growth, Sierra Leone relies heavily on agriculture and mining, although in recent years depletion of the country's richest mineral deposits has led to a decline in their relative contribution to the economy. Diamonds, the largest export earner, accounted for nearly 56 percent of exports in 1979. 4. The agricultural sector, still largely outside the mornetized economy, provides livelihood for nearly 80 percent of the population. Its contribution to GDP, however, is around 35 percent, implying a low level of agricultural productivity and food output per capita on the average. Rice is the staple food and is grown by over 80 percent of the farmers, primarily 1/ Substantially unchanged from the President's Report for the Eastern Integrated Agricultural Development Project III dated December 19, 1980 (Report No. P-2929-SL).  - 2 - for subsistence, although the country still faces rice shortages. Coffee, cocoa and oil palm products are the major export crops and also the princi- pal sources of cash income for the agricultural population. 5. Sierra Leone's social and economic infrastructure is not yet well developed. Although the extent of the road transport network is generally adequate for its present needs, there is an urgent need for improved mainte- nance and the development of feeder roads. The country has good water resources, although the hydro power potential is still relatively untapped. Only about 12 percent of the population has access to a safe drinking water supply, mostly in the urban areas. Health facilities are inadequate and infant and childhood mortality rates are among the highest in Africa. Although the Government has in recent years invested quite heavily in edu- cation, primary and secondary school enrollment ratios are low (37 percent and 11 percent, respectively) and the country's illiteracy rate remains high, around 85 percent. 6. The dualistic economic structure is reflected in income disparities between the modern and traditional sectors. With a population of about 3.3 million, average per capita GNP in 1979 was estimated at about US$250. The average per capita rural income is around US$120 while it averages about US$600 in the urban centers. About 23 percent of the population lives in urban areas. The urban migration rate (4.9 percent) is relatively low compared with neighboring countries; however, approximately 30 percent of the urban population has an income level below the urban absolute poverty threshold estimated at around US$105. Economic Performance (1) Production and Income 7. During its first decade of independence between 1962 and 1972, the financial resources available to Sierra Leone did not come under undue pressure as a result primarily of a reasonable rate of growth in domestic resources. Throughout this period, a nearly 5 percent growth in GDP per annum provided substantial foreign exchange earnings and also contributed to a satisfactory growth in public revenues. Beginning in 1972, however, this situation changed. Diamond output began to decline, mainly as a result of the depletion of alluvial deposits; there was a sharp increase in oil prices in 1973 coupled with rising import prices of manufactured goods; and in 1975 the country lost its second largest source of export earnings when the only iron ore mine closed due to rising production costs and a declining iron ore grade. As a consequence, the GDP declined by 4 percent in 1975/76 and remained virtually stagnant thereafter. During this period (1974 and 1979) the growth of GDP was less than one percent (0.9 percent) per annum on the average. With a population growth rate of about 2.5 percent per year, this resulted in a sharp decline in already low per capita real incomes.  -3 (2) Fiscal Performance 8. From 1973, the slowdown in economic growth and the erosion of the export base were accompanied by a marked deterioration in fiscal performance characterized by stagnating public revenues and expanding public expenditure policies. During the period 1973 to 1979, while public revenues increased an average of 12 percent a year, public expenditures grew about 21 percent per annum and the overall budget deficit widened from Le 21 million in 1973 (about 6 percent of GNP) to approximately Le 114 million in, 1979 (about 13 percent of GNP). Fiscal and monetary expansion, financed largely by short-term external borrowing, led to ever widening budgetary deficits, a further deterioration in the balance of payments and a substantial increase in the country's external debt burden. During the last two years, the increase in expenditures was largely attributable to civil service salary adjustments, expansion in the internal security forces and extra budgetary spending related to the OAU Conference held in Freetown. (3) Balance of Payments 9. The impact of stagnant production on the balance of paLyments was masked until 1974 by favorable export prices for Sierra Leone's major exports. Consequently, the country's foreign exchange reserves remained at satisfactory levels until the end of 1973. Difficulties began to emerge in 1974 and 1975 when import prices rose sharply as a result of the oil crisis an,d interna- tional inflation, while export performance remained modest. In 1974 and afterwards, the balance of payments began to deteriorate and shcw increasing overall deficits. As petroleum consumption is relatively high in Sierra Leone (mining, transport, power), the balance of payments position has been particularly affected by oil price increases. The cost of petroleum imports jumped from US$8 million in 1971 to about US$70 million in 1979, now claiming more than one third of the country's export earnings. While world diamond prices have remained strong in recent years, since the volume of Sierra Leone-s diamond output declined, overall export earnings showed only modest growth. Import demand, on the other hand, rose sharply with rising import costs and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. The overall balance of payments deficit rose to US$43 million in 1979 from about US$7 million in 1974. Sierra Leone's net foreign exchange reserves which stood at around US$36 million at the end of 1974, have declined steadily and remained tight since then. In December 1980 gross official reserves amounted to US$32 million of which only US$7.7 million, equivalent to one week's imports, was freely disposable. (4) Development of Objectives and Development Efforts 10. The country-s first National Development Plan (1974/75-1978/79) was prepared with the assistance of the UNDP and the UN Department of Technical Cooperation for Development. The development strategy and objec- tives stated in the Plan and many of its basic elements were well conceived and articulated. Priority was to be given to the expansion of the productive capacity of the economy and to a more equitable distribution of wealth and incomes. Unfortunately the period of the Plan coincided with the rapid depletion of the country's principal source of foreign exchange earnings and  - 4 - a deterioration in the Government's fiscal performance. These factors undercut the economic and financial resource assumptions underlying the Plan. The Government's policies concentrated increasingly on short-term financial problems and neglected the requirements of longer-term structural adjustment. More recently, the Government began to focus again on medium- term policies and formulated a three year public investment program (1978/79- 1980/81) as an interim measure and initiated preparation of a second National Development Plan. The public investment program attempted to shift resources to increased commodity production, particularly in agriculture. The second plan, which will become operational starting from 1981/82, is expected to address the question of structural adjustment and give emphasis to the productive sectors together with income distribution objectives. 11. Over the past five years, between 1974/75 and 1978/79, development spending by the public sector amounted to Le 150 million (about 45 percent less than the plan target, which was based on an annual GDP growth rate of 6 percent as compared with the actual growth rate of 0.9 percent). Out of this total about 22 percent was spent on agriculture, 20 percent on road transport, 17 percent on energy, 15 percent on social services and 25 percent on other economic and general services. Of these expenditures, 17 percent was financed by budgetary savings while the remaining 83 percent came from external and internal borrowings. Recent Measures for Economic Stabilization 12. Faced with increasing difficulties with respect to balance of payments, servicing of external debt and acceleration in the domestic inflation rate, the Government of Sierra Leone entered into a one year standby arrangement with the IMF in November 1979 for SDRs 17 million in the second and third credit tranches. The stabilization program supported by the standby arrangement included revenue raising measures, a limit on public expenditures, restrictions on new external debt, tighter monetary policy and adjustment in producer prices. The Government made satisfac- tory progress in implementing the program, especially as regards revenue raising measures and restrictions on short-term external borrowing. Following IMF review missions in January and again in April 1980, Sierra Leone has been able to purchase the full amount of the standby facility. 13. The 1979/80 budget was drawn up in the light of the Government's decision to implement a financial program to be supported by the Fund. Fiscal policies under the standby arrangement were geared towards reducing the budgetary deficits and inflationary financing, through additional revenue measures and restrictions on public spending. Sierra Leone has been success- ful in implementing the revenue measures and curtailing the net government borrowing from the banking system. However, there have been slippages in the areas of government expenditures. Recurrent expenditures have so far risen faster than program targets, while capital expenditures on OAU-related projects are estimated to have exceeded the initially envisaged amount of Le 100 million and to have reached about Le 123 million. The faster-than- programmed increase in recurrent expenditures has been due primarily to  -5 - unpredicted sharp increases in oil and other import prices, high levels of rice imports, and weakness in implementing the newly centralized expenditure control measures. 14. Sierra Leone's external trade balance as well as current account balance have improved modestly in 1979/80 as compared with the previous year. Export earnings have increased by about 10 percent above the 1978/79 level as a result primarily of favorable export receipts from diamonds. The total import bill on the other hand has been kept at a reasonable level despite sharp increases in oil prices and higher-than-expected level of rice imports. This was achieved through restrictive credit policies, intensifi- cation of administrative controls on low priority imports, and through centralization of the procurement procedures for the public sector. How- ever, largely because of the heavy debt service obligations, the foreign exchange situation has remained extremely tight throughout the fiscal year. 15. The highly expansionary monetary and credit trends of earlier years were contained under the stabilization program. As of June 1980, the rate of expansion of money supply was substantially lower than the year before (15 percent compared with 27 percent). During the first t:hree quarters of the program period (June 1979-March 1980), net credit to Govern- ment rose by 18 percent compared with an actual increase of 38 percent in the comparable period of the previous year. 16. The FY81 budget introduced new tax measures to yield an incremental tax revenue of nearly Le 20 million, about 10 percent above the estimated revenue outturn of the last year. The growth of recurrent expenditures is restricted to 15 percent which, with the current inflation rate, implies a virtually unchanged level of government activity in real terms. In October 1980, a 20-30 percent general wage and salary increase (the first since 1978) was granted by the Government. Although not provided for in the budget, this increase was accompanied by partially offsetting revenue measures on import duties. 17. Sierra Leone has requested further IMF support for a medium-term economic and financial program under the Extended Fund Facility to start at the end of the standby period. The Government and the IMF have recently completed negotiations and consideration by the IMF Board is expiected in late March 1981. If approved by the Board, the program will enable Sierra Leone to purchase about SDR 186 million over the three-year period starting from the Board approval date. The release of Fund resources in each year will be subject to annual performance reviews by the IMP and observance of quarterly performance criteria. External Debt and Creditworthiness 18. In the face of slow growth in public revenues and export receipts, Sierra Leone has, since the mid-1970's, relied heavily on foreign borrowing to finance its capital expenditures. Total external public debt outstanding increased by about US$132 million between 1975 and 1979. As of June 30, 1979 Sierra Leone's external public debt outstanding, including arrears of  - 6 - principal, amounted to US$329.7 million of which US$277.6 million was disbursed. The total debt outstanding and disbursed consisted roughly of 47 percent in commercial credits, 28 percent bilateral loans and 25 percent loans and credit from international institutions. As of June 30, 1979, the Bank Group held about 13 percent of Sierra Leone's external debt outstanding and disbursed. Assistance from bilateral government sources came mostly from the Federal Republic of Germany, the People&s Republic of China and the Netherlands. 19. The maturity structure of Sierra Leone's external public debt has deteriorated sharply since 1975 as a result of increased reliance on supplier credits. The average maturity of all new commitments declined from 16 years (in the early 1970s) to around 5 years in 1978/79. The major portion of the supplier credits obtained in 1978 and 1979 were contracted in connection with projects related to the OAU Conference. Based on the external debt commitments made until December 1979, it is estimated that, without debt relief, the external public debt service payments for 1980 would stand around US$72.0 million, equivalent to about 33 percent of expected export earnings and about 46 percent of expected government reve- nues. Since this was unmanageable, the Government in November 1979 ap- proached the creditor countries through the Paris Club and in February 1980 negotiated a second debt relief agreement. The total debt relief granted by this agreement amounts to an estimated US$10 million for 1980 and US$7.5 million for 1981. After taking the debt relief into account, actual debt service payments due declined from US$72.0 million to about US$62.0 million in 1980. This latter amount represents 28 percent of expected export earnings and about 40 percent of expected government revenues in 1980; debt service is expected to remain at about this level in FY81 and FY82. There- after it should decline, assuming Sierra Leone does not contract significant amounts of new short-term debt. Debt service on Bank Group loans and credits amounts to about 2.8 percent of Sierra Leone's total debt service liability in 1980. Future Prospects 20. The next two to three years are likely to be extremely difficult ones for Sierra Leone: the earliest revival of the economic activity is not expected before the mid-1980's even with new investments in mining and con- tinued investments in agriculture. During this period, while export earnings may at best increase modestly, the cost of imports will continue their upward trend, creating pressures on the balance of payments as well as the budget. The balance of payments situation and the budget will additionally be burdened with heavy debt service obligations falling due on previously contracted short-term debt. At the time the Paris Club agreed to debt rescheduling for 1980, it also committed itself to rescheduling for 1981 and 1982, on the condition that Sierra Leone continue to have a program with the IMF. Over the next two fiscal years, therefore, continued stabilization efforts will be required. In the medium and longer-term, it is foreseeable that Sierra Leone will both restore and sustain its creditworthiness provided the Government implements policies and investment programs aimed at the structural transforma- tion of the economy. The future outlook of the mining sector in Sierra Leone is difficult to assess in view of the limited knowledge of the extent of  mineral deposits. There are good prospects for kimberlite underground diamond mining; large iron ore reserves have been discovered, but these are of low ore grade; mining of rutile has just resumed and there are plans to expand bauxite production. The proposed Bumbuna hydro power project could provide lower cost energy to support these activities. A further intensification oi- the present efforts in the agricultural sector should strengthen the country s renewable resource base, increase export earnings from cocoa, coffee and palm oil, and raise the standard of living and incomes for the vast majority of the country's people. The implementation of programs designed to achieve structural trans- formation will take time to implement and will require substantial flows of external assistance on concessionary terms. Although the present balance of payments situation and the country s debt profile would not just:Lfy lending on normal IBRD terms, the country's low per capita income and its recent efforts to improve economic performance justify extending IDA assistance.. At the same time, to ensure an adequate flow of foreign exchange resources for the country's development program during a period of budgetary stringency, it would be appropriate to finance a portion of the local costs of projects. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN SIERRA LEONE I/ Bank Group Operations 21. Bank Group lending operations in Sierra Leone to date have totalled US$66.6 million. There have been four loans amounting to US$18.7 million and eight credits totalling US$45.8 million. IFC has provided a loan of US$2.1 million to Sierra Cement Manufacturing Company, Ltd. (SERACEM). Three loans and four credits are fully disbursed. Bank Group lending has supported agriculture (40.8 percent), education (15.9 percent), power (24.6 percent) roads (14.7 percent) and technical assistance (4.0 percent). Annex II con- tains a summary statement of Bank loans and IDA credits as of January 31, 1981 and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. In general, the execu- tion of the ongoing agricultural and education projects has been satis- factory, but implementation of the institutional aspects of the third power project has encountered some problems mostly due to weak management. Lending Strategy 22. The principal objectives of Bank Group assistance to Sierra Leone are to: (a) support improved economic management, including economic development planning and project preparation; (b) stimulate agricultural production with a view both to broadening the country's export base, e.g., cocoa, coffee and palm kernels, and also to helping attain self-sufficiency in the production of staple foods; (c) improve the country's essential infrastructure, particularly roads and power, the inadequacy of which presently constitutes a constraint upon the country s economic growth; (d) raise the income levels and standard of living of the poorest section of the 1/ Substantially unchanged from the President's Report for the Eastern Integrated Agricultural Development Project III dated December 19, 1980 (Report No. P-2929-SL).  - 8 - population; and (e) broaden access to education, particularly in the rural areas, and improve its quality. At the same time, the Bank Group aims through its projects to encourage the adoption of appropriate sector pricing and tariff policies and to strengthen the management and operations of the relevant government departments and corporations. 23. Since the halt in 1975 of iron ore production and the gradual decline in the production of diamonds, it has become increasingly important to develop the agricultural and manufacturing potential of the economy. Bank Group-financed agricultural development projects have provided improved extension services, feeder roads and farm inputs to smallholders affected by the projects. These activities were started in the Eastern area under the first project, and expanded under the second project which also initiated similar assistance in the Northern area. A third agricultural development credit in the East has recently been approved by the Executive Directors. It would extend project coverage to the entire Eastern province and would place added emphasis on production of coffee and cocoa in order to diversify the country-s export base. The proposed fourth agricultural project would be a second phase operation to expand smallholder activities in the Northern province begun under the first phase. These ongoing and prospective opera- tions will complement other integrated agricultural development projects under way elsewhere in Sierra Leone with the assistance of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and the European Economic Community (EEC). To ensure smooth assimilation of these projects into the Ministry of Agriculture and help rationalize agricultural policies and the credit system, an agricultural services project is being prepared for possible Bank Group support. A possible industrial development (IDF) project may be prepared to assist in financing small and medium scale enterprise develop- ment in agro-industries, manufacturing and services. 24. In infrastructure, the Bank Group's first highway project assisted in the construction of the country-s main trunk road system, in implementing a maintenance program, and in preparing studies for further improvement of the road system. The proposed Second Highway Project aims at strengthening the country's capacity to program and execute road maintenance. A third project in the power sector, approved in 1977, is helping finance urgently needed extension of electric power generation and distribution facilities in Freetown and several provincial centers, thereby restoring a measure of reliability in the supply of power required for sustaining the Sierra Leone economy. The project is also intended to help strengthen the finances and management of the Sierra Leone Electricity Corporation (SLEC). At the same time, the project includes assistance for the preparation of the Bumbuna hydroelectric scheme which is aimed at reducing the country's dependence on petroleum-based power. 25. In the social sectors, two education projects approved by the Bank Group have been directed towards improving and diversifying education at the secondary level, including teacher training, modernizing curricula to increase the relevance of education to employment, encouraging rural and non-formal training and strengthening educational planning and management. Preparation has begun on a third education project which, inter alia, is expected to support the Government's efforts to increase access to primary education in the rural areas and improve its quality.  - 9 - 26. To achieve its medium and longer-term development objectives, the Government needs to improve its economic planning and project prepara- tion capability. The Bank Group has already provided technical advice to the Government in the formulation of its current three-year public invest- ment program (1978/9-1980/1). In response to a request from the Government, the Bank Group is also financing a technical assistance project which, in cooperation with UNDP/TCD, is designed to assist the Government in the formulation of a second National Economic Development Plan and the prepara- tion of well-conceived development projects in a number of priority sectors. 27. As noted in Part I of this report, Sierra Leone has experienced serious economic difficulties in the last few years, and, as a consequence, the level of Bank Group lending has been low. Continued improvement in the Government's management of the economy will be important in determining the level of future Bank Group lending. PART III - THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR 28. The agricultural sector should play a major role in Sierra Leone's effort to promote economic development and a more equitable distribution of income. Conditions are suitable for a variety of high potential agricul- tural production systems which can improve the income levels of the rural poor as well as expand production of export crops and of food crops for import substitution. The Southern and Eastern parts of the country have climatic conditions suitable for tree crop production and support of a rural cash economy. Conditions are less favorable towards the North, where the longer dry season supports primarily a cropping system of shifting cultiva- tion for subsistence. 29. Rice is the staple food, accounting for over 70 percent: of the cultivated area and grown by over 80 percent of the farmers. Annual in- creases in rice production of about 8 percent were achieved for two years in the mid-1970s as a result of increased swamp rice development and higher prices. They were not, however, sustained, since they represented only a temporary farmer response to a long delayed price increase; annual increases currently average under 2 percent. Domestic rice production in 1L978/79 was about 308,000 tons. Over the past 20 years rice imports averaged about 30,000 tons annually, but in 1979 imports reached 68,000 tons. The latter sharp increase was necessitated in part by an unusually poor harvest caused by insect damage but also reflects erratic Government purchasing and smuggling. Over the medium-term future, Sierra Leone is expected to have an annual rice deficit of about 40,000 tons. 30. The chief export crops--coffee, cocoa and palm kernels---are produced primarily in the East and South. In 1979/80 exports included 9,500 tons of cocoa (worth US$29.6 million) and 10,000 tons of coffee (worth US$36.2 million). Fruit trees, mostly citrus, are grown throughout the country, but the subsector has received little development support, though a fruit processing factory has recently been established in the North. Edible oils are produced locally from oil palm and from groundnuts, mostly grown in the  - 10 - North, but are insufficient to meet domestic consumption. About US$3.0 million worth of animal and vegetable oils are imported annually. While sheep and goats are raised by pastoralists in the North, the contribution of the livestock sector is only about 5 percent of agricultural production or about 1.5 percent of total GDP. Government Policy 31. The first National Development Plan (1974/75-1978/79) assigned high priority to agriculture and emphasized its development as essential for achieving long-term economic growth, balanced regional development, and equitable income distribution. The plan called for an overall growth of the agricultural sector of 5.4 percent per year, self-sufficiency in rice production, improved nutrition, and increased production of major export crops. These goals were to be achieved through improvements in agricultural services and institution of a production-oriented price package. The main vehicle was to be the planning and development of integrated agricultural development programs and projects covering the country's main agricultural areas. Because of institutional and financial constraints, the plan proved far too ambitious. But there have been significant achievements. About 30 percent of the country is covered by integrated aPricultural development projects E Eastern IADP and NortiieriL IAD.ui -nanced by the Bank and IDA), Magbosi IADP (financed by IFAD and appraised and administered by the Bank), and Koinadugu IADP (financed by the EEC). Another three scheduled to begin in 1981, together with the ongoing projects and proposed extension of the Eastern and Northern IADPs, would cover in area about 80 percent of the country. 32. The second development plan, currently being prepared, is expected to have the same basic goals, but to place greater emphasis on strengthening the Government-s ability to deliver agricultural services. Under the IDA US$2.5 million Technical Assistance Project approved in December 1979 (Cr. 970-SL), the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) will receive assistance to strengthen medium and long-term planning of agricultural policies and programs. Agricultural Institutions and Services 33. MAF comprises two divisions: the Agriculture Division, which would be the primary institution concerned with the proposed project, and the Forestry Division. MAF's field operations are organized administra- tively into five separate agricultural regions, which correspond roughly to the provincial political boundaries. In general, MAF-s extension activi- ties are ineffective because of inadequate motivation, poor mobility, insuf- ficient operating funds, and cumbersome administrative procedures. The externally financed IADPs have been insulated from these problems by having adequate resources and clear objectives, and by operating outside the regular MAF bureaucracy. In the Northern Region, two IADPs (Koinadugu and Northern Phase I) function alongside, but separate from, the regional MAF structure, causing problems of coordination and possible duplication of services.  - 11 - 34. The Government is quite concerned about this situation, both because of the administrative problems it creates and because of the recur- rent cost implications of supporting the regular services and those estab- lished under the projects. With Bank Group assistance, the Government is taking a number of steps to resolve this problem and strengthen the Ministry in a phased and comprehensive manner. Bank Group Involvement in Agriculture 35. The proposed project would be the fourth Bank Group lending opera- tion to develop Sierra Leone's agricultural sector. The first IADP was started with Bank Group financing in the Eastern region in 1973 and served as a model for subsequent IADPs financed by the Bank Group and other exter- nal agencies. The second Bank Group-financed project expanded coverage in the East and initiated the IADP in the Northern region. A third phase project for the East was approved by the Executive Directors on January 13, 1981. 36. The first phase in the North commenced in 1976 and represented the first major agricultural development effort in the region, which had historically received less development assistance than the more favored East. Due to initial delays, the closing date was extended from March 31, 1980 to June 30, 1981. Supplementary financing was provided by an EEC Special Action Credit of US$2 million. Farmer response under Northern IADP I has been good. The area developed for swamp rice exceeded expectations; but the area developed for upland rice and groundnuts was lower than expected due to seed shortages. Shortfalls have also occurred in road construction, and farmer credit recovery rates are low. 37. The Project Performance Audit Report (PPAR) for the first IDA- financed IADP (Report No. 2066) acknowledged that, despite the short three- year development period and its pilot nature, the project was successfully implemented. However, the PPAR noted that expatriates played a critical role in project management and, upon their departure, weaknesses in project authority became apparent. The PPAR, therefore, concluded that the project did not succeed in its institution building efforts. 38. Institutional weaknesses at both the local and nationail level, such as those identified in the PPAR, have received considerable attention from the Government and the Bank in recent years. Under IADP I, a Project Evaluation and Services Unit (PESU) was established in MAF in Freetown to support the projects, manage their financial accounts, and monitor their achievements. In 1979, PESU was merged with MAF's Planning Unit into a single Planning, Evaluation, Monitoring and Services Unit (PEMSU), which is financed under Bank Group projects, but serves those financed! by other external agencies as well. PEMSU-s staff, which includes an internationally recruited financial controller and economist, has been effective in supporting the projects and facilitating their relationship with the senior echelons of the Ministry. However, PEMSU has, as yet, had little effect on management of MAF as a whole which remains weak.  - 12 - 39. The Bank Group is today assisting the Government in meeting its basic goals of preparing an agricultural investment strategy, reforming the administration of MAF in Freetown and in the field, and integrating the projects and MAF to achieve a single cost-effective agricultural service. First, under the IDA Technical Assistance Project approved in December 1979, two long-term advisors will help prepare an agricultural investment program. Second, under the recently approved Eastern IADP III, which extends project coverage to the entire Eastern Province, project staff and regular ministry staff will be combined into one provincial administration. Third, funds from the Technical Assistance Project are supporting preparation of an agricultural services project for possible Bank Group financing which would put into effect a basic administrative reform of the ministry and would specifically address the question of integrating agricultural services and rationalizing credit systems. 40. Integration would not be tried from the start under the proposed Northern project, although it would be an important goal. This is because: (a) the project is newer and less well established; (b) the region is more backward; and (c) both the EEC and the Bank Group finance separate projects in the Northern Province, but together leave uncovered some 30 percent of the province. However, reforms designed to increase farmer involvement in planning and decision-making will be implemented in the proposed project in the North as well as in the East. Marketing and Pricing 41. The major agricultural marketing institution is the Sierra Leone Produce Marketing Board (SLPMB) under the Ministry of Trade and Industry. SLPMB markets the country's main export crops and has also taken over the functions of the dissolved Rice Corporation, including the import of rice. Producer prices for export crops are fixed by SLPMB in consultation with the Government. The Government levies export duties on the basis of a fixed percentage of fob prices. These taxes are relatively high, 35 percent on coffee and cocoa; they had been lowered in early 1979, but were subsequently increased in order to raise budget revenues. Groundnuts are marketed locally by traders, and livestock marketing is also handled by the private sector. 42. As part of its effort to achieve self-sufficiency in rice produc- tion, over the last ten years, the Government has maintained producer prices for rice at or above prevailing world market prices. However, farmers may not receive the official producer prices in cases of indebtedness and pledging of crops to traders. The project would reduce indebtedness to traders by provid- ing adequate credit to farmers, thus effectively increasing the average producer price. Insufficient empirical evidence is available to say for sure whether higher producer prices would result in substantial increases in rice production. In the Eastern Province, farm budget analysis shows that returns to family labor are lower for rice than for export crops even with heavy taxation on the export crops, and therefore rice would probably continue to be grown mainly for subsistence. In the North, however, where limited alternative  - 13 - crops can be grown, and where farm budget analysis indicates that returns from rice production are adequate and the most attractive of the alternatives, rice would continue to be the leading crop in the foreseeable future and increased production could be expected in response to higher prices. Rural Credit 43. Little credit is provided to small farmers by either the official lending institutions (the National Development Bank and the National Coope- rative Development Bank) or the commercial banks. For this reason, under each of the IADPs, credit facilities have been established. They have experienced problems of low loan recovery rates and high administrative costs. The proposed project would address the causes of poor performance in the North which are thought to include weak administrative staff and procedures, insuf- ficient links to traditional practices and village groups, pressures to lend to meet targets, and inadequate legal follow-up on delinquent loans (para. 50). In addition, in response to the Government s request for assistance to estab- lish a nationwide agricultural credit system, consultants have been engaged under the IDA Technical Assistance project to help prepare a project component that might be included in the proposed agricultural services project. This national credit program would reflect experience gained under the IADPs and would provide for their eventual incorporation into the broadler scheme as appropriate. PART IV - THE PROJECT 44. The proposed project would be a second phase of the Northern region portion of the Bank Group financed Integrated Agricultura:L Develop- ment Project II (IADP). The need for a follow-on project in the North was identified in January 1979 during supervision. The project was prepared by the Government and the FAO Cooperative Program between October 1979 and February 1980, and presented to the Bank Group for financing in March 1980. Appraisal took place in June 1980. Negotiations took place in Washington from February 9 to 12, 1981. The Borrower was represented by a delegation headed by Hon. A. Jackson, Minister of Agriculture and Forestry. Significant events and special conditions are summarized in Annex III. A Staff Appraisal Report entitled "Sierra Leone: Northern Integrated Agricultural Development Project II", No. 3166-SL, dated February 27, 1981 is being circulated sepa- rately to the Executive Directors. Project Objectives 45. The project would increase food production and farm incomes by expanding the Phase I project area of 10 chiefdoms (4,900 km2) to include another 12 chiefdoms (8,500 km2) in the Northern Province. In addition to the expansion of upland and swampland rice, groundnuts, and maize, which were developed under Phase I, the project would promote fruit tree cultiva- tion as a long-term cash crop and soil conservation measures. The project would also promote improved livestock production, particularly by cultiva- tors as an integral part of the farming system. In addition, the credit  - 14 - facility established under Phase I would be strengthened. About 13,500 farmers, or about 40 percent of the farmers in the proposed and previous project areas, would be direct beneficiaries of the development program. An additional 3,400 families (10 percent of the area's population) would benefit indirectly through extension service advice, better roads, and drinking water wells. Project Description 46. Over a five-year period, the project would include the following components: (a) reinforcement of the existing extension and other farmer support services, by providing managerial, technical and support staff, training, and associated vehicles, equipment and housing; (b) expansion and strengthening of the existing system of credit and input supply; (c) medium and short-term credit to finance inputs for the de-elopment and cultivation of 4,000 ha , Tlaland valley swamps and 20,000 ha of uplands, principally involving rice (11,000 ha), groundnuts (5,000 ha), and cassava (1,000 ha); (d) plan-ting of 750 ha of fruit trees and construction of bunds and other measures to counter erosion on the uplands; (e) introduction of support services and extension training for livestock and improved animal production practices; (f) engineering services and construction of 80 km of penetra- tion roads and 300 km of chiefdom tracks, 400 village wells, and five staff houses; (g) technical assistance for supporting studies, forestry research, and staff training; and (h) establishment of a small monitoring and evaluation cell. Project Implementation 47. MAF-s Permanent Secretary would have overall responsibility for the project, but it would be managed on a daily basis by a semi-autonomous Project Management Unit (PMU) located in Makeni and headed by an interna- tionally recruited Project Manager (already in place) assisted by a locally recruited Deputy Project Manager. As under Phase I, the PMU would be supported in Freetown and coordinated with the other IADPs by PEMSU's financial, administrative, and monitoring services (para. 38) and by the internationally recruited projects coordinator, in the Office of the Chief Agriculturist. A Project Executive Committee consisting of key MAF and  - 15 - project officials would continue to be responsible for approving budgets, monitoring expenditures, and reviewing quarterly and annual reports. At the provincial level, a Project Coordinating Committee, composed of local admini- strative and tribal authorities, farmer representatives, and senior project management, would continue to serve as a link between the project and the local community. 48. For the reasons stated earlier (para. 40), no attempt would be made initially to combine the PMU and regular MAF administration in the project area. However, not later than June 30, 1984 (i.e., before the end of Project Year 3), the Government would submit proposals to IDA for integrating the PMU and other project units operating in the Northern Province under MAF (draft Credit Agreement, Section 5.04). These proposals would be based on the MAF reorganization which will be formulated as part of preparation of a proposed agricultural services project. 49. Agricultural Services. The Training and Visit extension service system which was successfully introduced under the Phase I project would be continued and expanded under the proposed project. This system, which relies upon effective training and contact farmers, would be strengthened. Applied research would be carried out by the project to supplement the recently started national Adaptive Crop Research and Extension Project financed by USAID. Shortage of groundnut seed and, to a lesser extent, rice seed was a problem under Phase I. The MAF Seed Multiplication P'roject, assisted by the Federal German Government, has focused on rice seed and can now supply sufficient quantities for the IADPs. Assurances were obtained during negotiation that this seed would be provided to the proposed project on a timely basis (draft Credit Agreement, Section 4.07). To meet its needs for groundnut and other seed, the proposed project would employ an interna- tionally recruited senior agronomist to establish and manage a project seed multiplication unit. 50. Commercial Services. Distribution of agricultural inputs (includ- ing seeds, fertilizer, and tools) and credit would continue to lbe managed by the project Commercial Services section. A number of changes would be made in the administration of these services in order to improve their efficiency and loan recovery rates. To reduce administrative costs, the farmers would collect the inputs at the service centers, which would be reduced in number. In an attempt to increase loan repayment, loans would be made to groups, whose leaders would have initial responsibility for collection. Closer coordination with local administrative structures and legal procedures would also be stressed. Interest rates would be increased from 8 percent for development loans and 10 for seasonal loans to 15 and 20 percent respec- tively and would be reviewed annually with IDA and adjusted if necessary (Credit Agreement, Schedule 4 and Section 4.08). These rates are identical to those agreed to for the Eastern and Magbosi IADPs. Assuming a medium-term annual inflation rate of 15 percent, the interest rate for at least seasonal loans would be positive. Development loans would finance payment of hired labor to supplement family labor which the farmers would contribute toward swamp development costs. The credit operations would be managed by a  - 16 - locally recruited commercial services officer who would be assisted on a half-time basis by the internationally recruited credit specialist to be employed under Eastern IADP III. In addition, an internationally recruited accountant would be added to the PMU to strengthen project accounting, espe- cially in the Commercial Services Section. All loan repayment funds would be retained by the credit facility to be used to finance new loans and credit administration costs. To ensure that no such funds were used for other purposes, a special account would be established (draft Credit Agreement, Section 4.11). 51. Staffing and Training. The majority of the senior staff would be retained from the Phase I project. While most positions would be filled by Sierra Leone nationals, financial provision has been made for interna- tional recruitment of five senior management positions, including the Project Manager. As part of its commitment to cover the recurrent costs of the previous project, the Government would finance staff from Phase I who are needed to sustain earlier achievements. 52. Since management training was inadequate under the previous project, the proposed project would provide management training specifically tailored to meet the needs of the project at the Institute for Public Administration and Management. For this purpose, a qualified trainer in agricultural manage- ment and development, financed by the project, would be appointed to the Institute (draft Credit Agreement, Section 4.01(h)). Funds would also be provided for overseas training. 53. Monitoring and Evaluation. A monitoring and evaluation cell would be established at project headquarters. Consultants would be engaged to assist in carrying out a baseline survey which would be started by September 30, 1981 and completed one year later (draft Credit Agreement, Section 4.01(g)). Analysis and processing of the data would be performed by PEMSU/MAF headquarters staff in conjunction with similar work being done for the other IADPs. 54. Civil Works. The project would include the construction of some 80 km of all-weather penetration roads and the reconstruction of some 300 km of chiefdom tracks which are needed to distribute farm inputs, provide extension services, and market produce. The Ministry of Works (MOW) would be responsible for the road program. However, MOW does not have the capabi- lity to build and maintain feeder roads itself at this time. Furthermore, since the work would consist of a large number of geographically dispersed small jobs with varying specifications, it would not be suitable for inter- national competitive bidding. For these reasons, MOW would execute the roads program by means of a negotiated contract with Cooperative American Relief Everywhere (CARE), a non-profit agency which has built similar roads under the ongoing project and will do so under EIADP III. The standards to which the roads would be built would be spelled out in the contract which would be approved by IDA (draft Credit Agreement, Section 4.01(c)). The road construction work would be supervised by the PMU's engineering services  - 1~7 - unit which would also supervise construction of the 400 village drinking water wells, the mechanical repair workshops, and staff housing. The all-weather roads would be maintained by CARE for two years, with financing from the Government, after which the responsibility for maintenance would be turned over to MOW (draft Credit Agreement, Section 4.01 (c) and 5.03). MOWs maintenance capability would be strengthened during this period under the second highway maintenance project. Under the latter project, consul- tants will prepare recommendations on maintenance of all roads, including penetration and chiefdom tracks. It is likely that responsibililty for the tracks will ultimately be delegated to chiefdom authorities using mainly local labor. Project Cost and Financing 55. Total project costs, net of identifiable taxes and duties (from which the project is exempt), are estimated at US$27.7 million, of which US$17.9 million, or about 65 percent, would be foreign exchange require- ments. The recurrent costs of maintaining the activities (including roads) started under the Phase I project (currently estimated at about Le $500,000 annually) have not been included in project costs, but would be an obligation of the Government to advance on a quarterly basis (draft Credit Agreement, Section 4.06 (a)). The base line cost estimate is based on mid-1980 prices updated to end 1980. Cost estimates for civil works (swamp development, roads, wells, and buildings) are based on experience in the first-phase Northern IADP. Incremental farm input costs are based on farmgate prices. Local staff costs reflect current civil service scales. Internationally recruited staff costs (US$80,000 - US$85,000 per man year) reflect prevailing market conditions. Costs of consultants are estimated at US$11,000 a month, inclusive of travel and subsistence. Physical contingencies of 5 percent have been added for civil works, equipment, non-labor farm inputs, and operation and maintenance, amounting to 4 percent of total base cost. Anticipated annual price increases, amounting to 31 percent of total base costs plus physical contingencies, reflect projected inflation rates: for local per- sonnel costs, 5 percent; for local civil works and operation and maintenance costs, 15 percent in 1981, 13 percent in 1982, and 10 percent from 1983 onwards; for the foreign exchange component, 9 percent in 1981, 8.5 percent in 1982, 7.5 percent in 1983 to 1985, and 6.0 percent in 1986; and for inter- nationally recruited personnel 8 percent per annum in keeping with UNDP guidelines. Based on these calculations, total price and physical contin- gencies equal 26 percent of total costs and 36 percent of base costs. A summary breakdown of costs is shown at the beginning of this report. 56. The African Development Fund (ADF) has agreed in principle to finance US$8.5 million equivalent on a parallel basis, the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) has agreed in principle to finance US$6.0 million on a joint basis, and the UNDP would provide a technical assistance grant of US$2 million. The proposed IDA credit of US$8.5 million, the ADF and IFAD loans, and the UNDP grant would together cover 90 percent of total project costs, net of taxes and duties (100 percent of the foreign exchange costs plus US$7.1 million equivalent of local costs). The Government contri- bution of US$2.7 million would cover the remaining local costs. The IDA credit would finance US$5.5 million, or about 31 percent, of the total foreign exchange costs and finance 60 percent of the foreign exchange cost of the  - 18 - following components: vehicles and equipment, production inputs, buildings, an internationally recruited accountant, and consultancy services. In addition, the credit would finance about US$1.9 million of the domestic costs of the above categories as well as US$1.1 million of the local per- sonnel costs. The UNDP grant of US$2.0 million would finance 15 man-years of expatriate technical assistance and support services for the project. The IFAD loan would be for 50 years, including 10 years of grace, at one percent per annum, and would cover the remaining 40 percent of the foreign exchange cost of the components financed by IDA, and US$2.2 million of local costs. The ADF loan would be on the same terms as the IDA credit and would finance the local and foreign exchange costs of the livestock services and engineering units; the foreign exchange operating costs of the commercial services unit; and the foreign exchange costs of the roads component. The Government's contribution of US$2.7 million, or 10 percent of total project costs, would cover mostly local personnel and operatonal costs. A condition of effectiveness of the IDA credit would be that all conditions precedent to the effectiveness of the UNDP grant and IFAD and ADF loans had been fulfilled (Credit Agreement, Section 7.01). In view of the financial constraints facing the Government, it would be desirable to prefinance certain local expenditures which would be financed from the proceeds of the IDA credit and IFAD loan. It is therefore proposed that IDA and IFAD jointly deposit a total of US$100,000 equivalent into a special bank account for this purpose. IDA and IFAD would replenish the account upon receipt of satisfactory evidence that such expen- ditures were eligible (Credit Agreement, Section 3.02 b, c, d, e, f). The management of the account and preparation of certified expenditure claims would be the joint responsibility of the Project Manager and the Financial Controller of PEMSU. IDA has recommended that ADF establish a similar revolv- ing fund for the road construction component, which would be carried out for the Government by CARE (para. 54), a non-profit organization which does not itself have the necessary working capital. 57. The project management, in collaboration with PEMSU, would pre- pare an annual budget and estimates of quarterly requirements which would be submitted to MAF for approval. On the basis of the approved budget, the Government would: (i) make appropriate allocations in the MAF budget and release the necessary funds, for the proposed and previous project, to MAF quarterly in advance and (ii) make timely allocations of the necessary for- eign exchange for imports of recurrent farm inputs and other goods required under the proposed and previous project (Credit Agreement, Section 4.06). PEMSU, which set up and satisfactorily supervised the project accounts under Phase I, would continue to do so under the proposed project. Procurement 58. All goods and services financed under the IDA credit and IFAD loan would be procured in accordance with IDA Guidelines. Contracts valued at US$75,000 or more, for vehicles and equipment (US$1.5 million) and for fertilizer (US$1.2 million), would be procured through interna- tional competitive bidding (ICB); purchases would be grouped into packages of at least US$75,000 whenever possible; contracts for items estimated at less than US$75,000 but more than US$10,000 (US$1.5 million) would be  - 19 - procured through local competitive bidding procedures acceptable to IDA, or limited international bidding. Contracts of less than US$10,000, for small items such as fuel, spare parts, office supplies, tools, transportation of farm inputs, pesticides and seedlings (US$5.2 million), would be procured through limited local tendering based on at least three quotations. Hired labor for swamp development (US$2.0 million) would be secured from the local market. The services of local personnel (US$1.9 million) would be recruited from existing Phase I staff or the local market in accordance with Govern- ment procedures. Materials for building wells and workshops would be procured under the above procedures, and the construction would be carried out under force account. Contracts for buildings (US$0.3 million) would not be attrac- tive to foreign contractors due to their small sizes and dispersed locations and would, therefore, be awarded on the basis of local competitive bidding in accordance with procedures satisfactory to IDA. Domestically manufactured goods would be allowed a preference of 15 percent or the level of applicable import duty, whichever is lower. The services of internationally recruited staff and consultants (US$0.9 million) would be procured in accordance with IDA guidelines. Goods and services financed by ADF (US$8.5 million) would be procured in accordance with their procedures. The UNDP contribution of US$2.0 million would be for technical staff and IDA would act as the Executing Agency. The Government contribution of US$2.7 million would be mainly for local costs of staff salaries, production inputs, and operationaLl expenses. Disbursement 59. The proceeds of the IDA Credit and IFAD loan would be disbursed according to a 60:40 ratio over five years as follows: SDR Amount Category Terms Million US$ Million 1. Production 100% of foreign exchange costs 5.0 6.1 Inputs 95% of local costs II. Civil Works 100% of foreign exchange costs 0.3 0.4 - Buildings 95% of local costs III. Vehicles & 100% of foreign exchange costs 1.5 1.8 Equipment 95% if purchased locally IV. Consultant 100% of foreign exchange costs 0.7 0.9 Services & Senior Accountant V. Staff 65% of costs of local salaries 1.4 1.7 up to a maximum of VI. Operating 100% of foreign exchange costs 1.8 2.2 Expenses 90% of local costs VII. Initial With- 0.1 0.2 drawal for Special Account VIII. Unallocated 1.0 1.2 11.8 14.5  - 20 - Disbursement against vehicles and equipment, civil works, seeds, and salaries and allowances of internationally recruited staff would be fully documented. Disbursements would be made against statements of expenditure for force account civil works, local staff salaries, and minor miscellaneous research items. Financial Implications for the Government 60. The project would not generate directly any revenue to the Govern- ment since the commodities to be produced under the project are not taxed. Consequently, the Government cash flow would be negative, which is typical for such a project. The recurrent costs for administration, extension and other services, and roads maintenance under the Phase I Northern project amount to about Le 500,000 and would be financed solely by the Government. The annual Government contribution for Phase II development would average Le 600,000 during the five-year investment period. The annual subsidies on fertilizers (under both phases) are expected to decline from about Le 100,000, in year 1 to about Le 58,000 in year 3 and then be removed altogether, since the Government has agreed to a phased removal of the subsidy by 1985 under the Eastern IADP III. The recurrent costs for maintaining the services of the Phase II project would be about Le 1.0 million at the end of the investment period. Benefits and Risks 61. Since Sierra Leone is a net importer of food, the incremental food crop production would represent considerable potential annual net foreign exchange savings. By 1990, the incremental annual output of rice and ground- nuts would be worth, at border prices, at least US$7 million (in constant 1980 terms) net of foreign exchange costs of farm inputs. The incremental produc- tion of the other commodities--maize, cassava, mixed vegetables and other crops, citrus, and livestock--would have an annual net value of at least the equivalent of US$2.4 million on the domestic market. 62. An estimated 13,500 farm families (40 percent of all rural families in the Northern IADP I and II areas) would earn significantly higher incomes under the various crops and livestock improvement and credit programs; per capita incomes would increase between two and threefold. All these families currently earn per capita incomes below the relative rural poverty income threshold of US$67 for Sierra Leone. By full development--1987 for the food crops, 1991 for the citrus and fruit trees--annual on-farm employment would increase by about 1.5 million mandays. The improvement of the road network and the provision of village wells would reach beyond these direct benefi- ciaries to a considerably larger proportion of the rural population. Addi- tional employment would also be created by the increase in the level of economic activity which would be induced by the project in other sectors such as trading, rice processing, construction, transportation. It is estimated that nearly 50 percent (17,000) of the rural families in the project area would benefit in some way under the proposed project. 63. The estimated economic rate of return of the project is 21 per- cent. Since the proposed project would be the second phase in the area and  - 21 - would build upon the organizational structures and techniques developed in the first phase, normal risks associated with this type of project would be minimized. The major constraints to self-sustaining project achievements would be difficulties in: (a) achieving an expanded and effective extension service; (b) improving the recovery rates of the credit program; and (c) maintaining an adequate and timely flow of farm inputs. In an attempt to reduce these constraints, this second phase project would emphasize organiza- tion and management. Training for crop and livestock development would be strengthened and the credit program would be restructured with the half-time assistance of a credit specialist (para. 50). 64. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the project would remain eco- nomically viable under various adverse conditions. Yields would need to fall by about 15 percent for the project to become unviable. The project would still be viable if adoption rates were only about 85 percent the anticipated level or if real prices declined by about one-sixth of their projected levels. By comparison, under Phase I, where relatively less fertile land was developed and shortages of seed occurred, total production of all project promoted crops in 1980 was 85 percent of appraisal targets. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 65. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the Republic of Sierra Leone and the Association and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section 1 (d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Association are being distributed separately to the Executive Directors. 66. In addition to the features of the Credit Agreement which are referred to in the text and listed in Annex III, a condition of effectiveness of the IDA Credit would be the fulfillment of all conditions precedent to the effectiveness of the UNDP grant and ADF and IFAD loans (Section 7.01 of Credit Agreement). 67. I am satisfied that the proposed Credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 68. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Credit. Robert S. McNamara President Attachments Washington, D.C. March 18, 1981  - 22 - ANNEX I TABLE 3A Page 1 of 5 pages SIRRA LIEN - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SRN2E SIERRA LEONE REFERENCE COUPS (WEIGBTED AlAiES LAND AREA (THOUSAND SO. IIH.) - MST RECENT ESTIMATE)3 TOTAL 71. 7 AGRICULTURAL 63.0 MOST RECEDT IN INCOHE MIDDLE INCOHE 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b AFRICA SOUT! OF SMARAA AFRICA SOUTH OF BAMARA GNP PER CAPITA (55) .. 150.0 250.0 260.0 968.0 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (CILOCRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 31.0 127.0 98.0 80.0 699.4 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, MID-YEAR (MILLIONS) 2.2 2.7 3.3 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 13.0 18.1 23.1 17.3 28.9 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 6.0 STATIONARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) 14.0 YEAR STATIONARY POPULATION IS REACRED 2160 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. KM. 31.0 38.0 46.0 27.4 61.7 PER SQ. EM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 35.0 43.0 52.0 82.6 126.0 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 41.8 42.0 43.7 44.9 45.5 15-64 YRS. 55.0 55.0 53.0 52.2 51.6 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 3.2 3.0 3.3 2.8 2.8 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 1. 8 2.2 2. 5 2.7 2.7 URBAN 3.9 5. 5 5. 7 6.8 4.9 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 47.0 46. 0 46.0 47.4 46.8 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 27.0 22.0 19.0 19.6 16.4 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE .. 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.2 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) .. USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 98.0 99.0 98.0 91.8 94.0 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 85.0 96.0 93.0 90.2 92.7 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 43.0 47.0 48.0 53.0 53.0 OP WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 13.0 14.0 17.0 18.4 15.6 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 41.0 32.0 27.0 27.7 21.3 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 37.0 42.0 46.0 45.3 50.1 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) .. .. ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL *- 12.0 *- 23.2 31.0 URBAN .. 75.0 .. 58.O 66.8 RURAL .. 1.0 .. 16. 8 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. .. 28.9 URBAN .. .. .. 67.0 RURAL .. .. POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 19956.0 18067.0 .. 30910.4 14508. 2 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 5904. O/c 3602.0 .. 5793.2 3279.5 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 1312.0 1095.0 .. 1198.9 1141.5 URBAN .. .. RURAL .. .. ADMllSSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. .. HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL * 6.5 URBAN .. 5.7 RURAL .. 6.7 AVERAGE NUM8ER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. 2. .J. RURAL .. .. . .. . ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT O1 DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. .. .. . RURAL 2.0/ .. ..O  - 23 - ANNEX I Page 2 of 5 pages TABLE 3A SIERRA LEONE - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET SIERRA LEONE REFERENCE GROUPS (HIEICGTED AVtRAGES - MDST RECENT ESTIMATE' a MOST RECENT LOW INCOtE MIDDLE INCOME 1960 t 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b AFRICA SOUTH OP SAHAPA AFRICA SOUTH OP SAHARA EDUCATION ADJISTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PMEARTY: TOTAL 23.0 34.0 37.0 57.7 61. 7 KALE 30.0 41.0 45.0 74.2 69.2 FINALE 15.0 27.0 29.0 54.1 51.A SECONDARY: TOTAL 2.0 9.0 11.0 10.0 20.6 MALE 3.0 13.0 15.0 13. 7 29.2 FEKALE 2.0 5.0 7.0 7.1 14.7 VOCATIONAL FNRG-. (I OF SECONDARY) 9.0 3. 0 2.0 6.8 7.0 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRDSARY 36.0 32.0 32.0 45.0 36.6 SECONDARY 17.0 21.0 19.0 25.2 24.3 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 7.0 15.0 15.0 25.5 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS FER THOUSAND POPULATION 2. 0 9. 0 6.0 3.6 38.8 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 4.0 15.0 21.0 31.5 83.5 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 0.2/e 1. 1 2.8 1.8 NEiSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 6.0 17.0 10.0 4.6 24.2 CINEMA ANlAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA 0. 1 0. 1 .. .. 0. 7 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 910.5 1055.6 1222.3 FEMALE (PERCENT) 35. 7 35.0 35.0 33.5 38. 1 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 77.7 71.5 67.0 80. 7 54.3 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 11.7 14.8 18.0 8.1 7. 8 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 42.1 39.9 38. 7 42.2 38.8 IAALE 54.6 52.3 51 1 55.1 48.4 FEMALE 29.8 27. 7 26.5 29.5 29.4 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1. 1 1.2 1. 3 1.2 1. 3 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCCME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSENOLDS .. 33- 8/f HIG'dEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 64.1f . LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 4.5f LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 10. If POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. 138.2 RURAL .. .. 54.0 86.1 EST70ATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 78.0 107.0 RURAL *- *- 67.0 65.0 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. RURAL .. .. 35.0 66.9 Not available Hot ap pl cable. NOTES /a The group averages for each indicator are population-weighted arithmetic means. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /b Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year betveen 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1974 and 1978. /c 1962; /d 1967; /I 1963; /f Population. host recent esEimate of GNP per capita Is for 1979, all other data are as of April, 1980. October, 19F0  - 24 - ANNEX I Page 3 of 5 pages WUINITIUD OF SOCIAL aIDIATORS Htotem Although the data are drov fe.- Ious geerll judged the mast etheritattve nd refloble, ic should ite be noted that they may ot be inter- nationall comparable be..ause of the leck of staderdleed de itittn and -oncpt. need by different -oucorle Io ullsctiog the deta. The date Ars,es- thb1i..se . usful tob describe orders of magitude. ieditoo treede. and thrcelectoemjor diffe- -ce heb eo osres Th Iereec rop ,t (I) the - -outr goup of ths .objeot coun try end (l) & -cctry troop etch aeeebut highst avrae ec than the co.-try grou.p ofThe suf:bjtotr Ceopfr 'Cptl Srplu OIl tepercers" grop oer 'Stiddle lcce, North Afrirs sod Middle tactI chosnbeoe...uof stronger oolo-cuIturel affinitiesl. In the refernc grewp dots the -erege are pepu,ltin weighted rtthmtic m-o for etch Indictor sed eboee only Meei at mee:t half.cf the outtri.se Ie A group has detn for that odicent- ti.os the nvereg of ooeroeeog the indicetors depends on the eeilcbility of deem sod Is not -ifo.-, cautio n.ct be- en i Iiso..clrIgncac of .or indioctor to coc-bee These.. evroges ro only soeful In o. te the v-lu of one indicsto It I tie- aug the coutry end reeoc groopt LAND AREh (thousand eq.km.) Poolt.. Oc.hy e Popultion divided by nomet r tpranCtico ply- Total - Total eufa ores copiingled Area .nd inland octts.c elis qulifie fron A edicol echoo at uiv-rsity leve. Agrioo1tuta1 - tetimane of eri .lu ...ee used t srb orPsrmoetlY Po.,, ie oc r No.r.m Person - Pptletion divided by otebhe of pe..cticina for crops, potoe.skat end kitchen garden or to lie fallen: 19y7 dons, ale end femal grduane Pue T. peticol nurses . eselnst ee- Peeuation ne tnitalled toa. orben end rurl - Peelatiu (total, IMP ta APIA (Sf)-GNP pet .opit. ostimetee en ourrn -atkt price ...cl - ura,an oa)dtld by her tepoiesfe o ptlbd olted by _ -s cuv ioo method em World tack Atlas. (1977-79 hacto); 1960, awellble to public sod private genre sad epocIeiIed hepirs1 end - 197t, sod 1979 dare. hahili.tsiooccrr . topitele are ectblieete psceIIIly tAffsd ttflt OI0IMTIE P! APIA -Asua. cns.tln o crls enrg (cal by otleal on pbyelIIIn. IatbIllhotm peovidig principally ntedi.ml ENERY CYSITUT.IO _ p9 CAP.TA A-w .-Wi.. .- i1 -.gy (. osretsre o iecldod~ . -Ire ho-pitalo, howeve, i-olud health med ical end lignitc. petroleum, atur toe s..ad hydro-,.. uucls ma geotheslI1c- cetrsnt pceme-atly etaffd by a phy.icious (but by I medIcal cee.tet, triclity) LA kilogram of cl cqaivlent pee capita: 1960, 1970, 5l 1978 nuse dif,, stc.) which offer ic-patient dtined proide dato. lim~~~~~~~~~~~~~itcd eege of medical fciliti-n For mestisunl purposes urban bopi- POPULATION AID VITAL STATISTICS t.Is include Vs pri,rcipo.1 g-ara ed ep.cieliend hopitele, ad -1m -tim, id-Y-r(,Illi. - A.f J.ly1; 196, 1970 mdhospital. Iuosl or tur h.epist so d medical ed eternity naam Ttal Porlatc. I-er(ilo. oo cy1 90 91 n 98 Admeionie per foceital Dod - Ttal cubar of edmlmio.. to or chre dots. ,- ftt1 t~- c-t .AlP..i. fc tonhopito1o divided by the number of beds. difernt efeitoe ofuran re .,my ffect com rsbl~ity of data HOUSIG~ Pomengi cOactrioau90 99 ad17 aa Average Sian of HE.u.ahold (emn per hbou.ehold) -total. urbe. sad o"mel- FPupuCletlun Preijentiotieo- b ..Adhowesbld oit fagopo indiriduals whoshre ilgqan Poructio in ee 2000 -'ore oueinprjoin r m no 190 ad their maem. A horder or lodger may o may non ho .Inlded In toa ppltion by gs en Ioosd theIr mertolity cad fertility coto. the household for itloticail purposes Projectionprmtr fe.otaiyeae oprise of three levls I Avacat nuberofcrnepr.m-tta.ub.serrl-Avstae- InlIfe eapctnc ebIrth icecn ith country's per cc.pits.noe hro proeptre is. . all trh, ad. lb-, -oeid rconventionalg leel end femle lift npectenoy stbilising at 77.5 y55t5. The r- . f5tp do I-g I repotively. Delnc enld r-poreVen -eticots n matere One fertility ret aloe have three leel amuie d-olino in ud-ccupief yorce.llg 11d,- frtiity ....ording to tu-m len1 so paint family pleoigs performanc. Ances. tn Mlrtctioty Cecroen.t of del1iege) - total.- urban. andrua- tach o-onry Is thee aemigmed one of thee aine cobinatino of nertoliy Covntsadeligwth lctttyLlIngqreeasprete nod frtIlIty trend for projection -pur e. o os, ra,uc uadeligrspci y Stationar nonulooli n-In stationay popoleti- there LA no growh ci..nc1 b...d..'dlig cpl-y the birth rate I equal to cha dmath rots, med clcn Ohs see -trc ur i- SGUOldt,ff nie etant. This Le achieved nay after fertlprto aecAineito the roplancmmt leve of -it net otmprodctine rats ehe. noonh go.e.stioc OdlstdtE-olleent Da Prmr _col-_oa,ml n fml-iGoec total, male andtml of wmnr .p..a iteeIf enatly. The etationay populationms- a noleto l oeo th pimr lve s eretaeofrsote oeI. h.y.d on 0- the ateo cbs. pfjstd a charauferIcrtcso the vrupletoprimary -choul-age pouatos 1elyIcldscidre agd 6-1 inth yer20,sd b aeo dcieo ar lt ee orpae ycerc but adjoetod for di ffeenIInthe of primary education: for ment level....d h -r--t.i c .pic. contrcie with onlcres educetin err...lleet say agreed 100 parnent herentenr b oueinl eahd-m er hneo nr pnpclstot cmo com pupils Ire beln or shov thc offitoLA1 school ag. clot baDbserechd Secon.dary enho1 - totl, male cad fe.cln - Computd Am shov; secondary P.r q. .. Kld--r pp..ti- Prq"c. ki-t.r (DO h..tc-) feducaio reure tlct fuymrof approved primary itrmation; Per me hec i-erpplto e qat lctr(0 etre fpoidesgn- l oAtoI l or teach training icatrutlo for popik- tona sed C.t neb-nol1- - ly of 12 to 17 yecoe of egs: cnrrcp-dace core r eealy OtOlP7 p hid-(-4 -- ,-kg... Petionl enrollmet CP rtent of eennarl Vocotinnal inetitotion Psolamo Aegette(ent)-bidm CDVpee)*wkn-ae(15- Vinclde hoc industrial,for otherprogram which operate indmpe- 64et -on; 1.6D, 1970,.,end&1 ftidata. pp- dently or as depect-mte of occ-nder intitoti-ne I=- 0. .11.10t.-dr1.111cd,t. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Puro-tehrrai - primay n scaay- Totaletde1 erlld In toeslaien Oceth Mae Ceeremn -total - Anea growh rates of total ald- primary and -aodary level dividod by nobar ofteacher. In the Yerppaiosfr1 -D19-7. ad 1970-y8. ccresspeding" leel. Pneuaimo Drwik ate omet) - urban1 - Aaeual growth rates of urban ppo- Adult litracyI rate`p Cear.et) - Litnrets edolt (able to read cod write) lein. r1906.c t=6 7, so-90P.a a parcen.toto of tute1 sdu1c populatlan egd 15 yare and over. Crude tice ae rth oeRee) - Aoesl live birth, per thasoend of ld-y-ro Population 1960 197D,. an 197t data.c,-ro Crude Deahgtefe thead) - mA-- death, por thnoand of mid-yea-amnartr (perI th-nadpplte)-Pseu eocmrs se pplto:16,1970, and 1978 data, cae.oti ac hn ih prne ralde mblce he r tcan Oa erdnine gate - Averge n.flr ef daughtete a -oa will her In miltet vhices her noral reprodutive period if she euperlnce present a.e-speific fcr- -adioteccv.ivoe(e. homn uoaio)-altpe frnise trd tility ran;uual five-yea araeseding In 19 60, 1970, and 1977. braoeet ees oio per thoneAd of population: elode sel- Fseily Ploocin - Accrtpr. A--.I (theweande - Annua sober of ...oeptore cII.Idecloei coociaadi ec ha oieslno et of bleth-coetroldeis udccpIc. of naina .. sal-ly planing program. ee Inefc;dt for- rI ioyar nay no ho.comparable cince nes F.nfly Plannin - l=om C=rnn ofmaried woe)-- ecno fmrried~ . coo triactah dliah fd Ilecin..Z .r y-b.-pcb.i, omnochild-bearing mg (15-44 yece who ne it-otrldvcet TI ieerr nttecadnolto)-2rcieefo radcast to all marrid nomen n esma ae itoop.general. public pen thecead populstion: en- da nicen-dTVrciva FOOD AND NUTRITION ~~~~~~~~~~~~~in coontriem and in. yr. when -egieratien of TV cot. Ce Ie a ffc..t tnden of Pond Predoctien car Coots (1969-71-196) - Iode of pen co pits -eoo Monsoppe Circulation (pa ithousad rorulanmo) fS-ibw cb. a-ctat ni-cul prodoctin of all f end coeditioc. frodocemi -Iode cee..d end fund nd- tieo gol genra intere ees a" eInd asaIperiodical pub- ..I-d.c P.- b..i. ~ ~~~~~~~~~~Icau devote1d primartly.to reco rding gsnor1 news It Ie ce..eidered te e clenar eerbaIn.Osait tc cve petimar ced (e.g. m- marcad no, hedly'i tpero ait. psee foo tie a. th. -. inoteed of .sugr) which ate edible n oti oree eg.cfe n lnsAea Attndnce A. Cet e ertme.noen to tnre enclded). Aggregate production of each country Is hoend o-nAt- - C nettnalonstge rodcer rIc nIgts;196-65,197, cdA10 Idts. nihto soddcn.h er,lcuiteeeinn. odrv-in cinse Per cais ueP focrIs (Cee_et of renuree ts - Computed fcoo ad mahile unite. _enrY equivalent of not fond eapplice vetlbhle in costry pe aie~ ABOR PORIE per dey. Aveilble suppIes. comprise dumtai production. InP.rcla e ao oc tonne -Oooial cleprr nldn enporte. en.hne-esak ttnplcencoeaia ed nd, amd frcee. sod uneployed bnt enolodieg hoceewlve, audeet, etc. qatitesnedi food Process.ing, sod losses In dletribott,. Rsqcire Jeitt .r in-rinuoe-trieonrItc ton-ps...hls 1960, 1970 end -ets were stiated by PAO bead on phyeiologi-I omde tot .Ima cti_ 1970 done. city edhoclth consIdering evirocmata1 fsor, bdy wighte;,, 5C Fml oret F-1rem Inlbor force If p.roennge o tota lehor forco. and sendJ. dibtlceo f popultia . d e11wiga 10 peret fo et n drclue(o n)-Lhrfocinamng forestry, huntle and ,honashold level: fi9i6-hI,. 197Dftt, l..sod 1977,190 .date. t. Pr .. ic. euprr of c.retal (grac nor dey) - Protele content of pet ospits fiabtryg( an. -ectg of ttulb ahc f- crcri:9 196. , 1971i- mod197 dta. net eupply of food pse day. Mee suPpl of food Is dafined ne ebo.- is ldnu (eoily -tLabr force I.p. to .em ta,9 onntrut1iob, mefactuti1960 qi t.for all -ccise established by OSDDS pr-vde for mini- and eletrity waesegsanprnaeofoalabroc;190 -quttramoutep dy-d20V f-iI d 1970 and 1970 data. ulspei,of which 10 gram shold he anIma protein. Those etand- aciiyrteercoe mttl male, sod femal len fotceti ce urde are lower than thoee of 75 grams of total protein sad 23f gramsb off... World Food arus; 19~6"145,197 a 197 dan. 1960, 1970, and 1975 dat.. Thene are IiO.' pctcpninrtes reflecting Petcoota retin urey fom niml sd rlec- Pccon o fod d- ec-eo crocturn of the populatIon, sod lots tle red. A fow osi- tired fro ania1 end pulses to tea per dsy; 1961-65, 197 cd177 datsc , -i- Child (ae -)MoaiyttoCn h9md nsa eneprtceo in -Ocn Dom4.Rn&dntc Datrin- Rtin of popularloc coder 15 and 65 and nvr age gr-np 1-4 penc, to chIldren In thi gc grou.P; tot nest dev-lcyin cnnhn-.t. trios data derived from life tablen; 1960, 1970 and 1977 dsta. ICC DITIBTO Pentgeo crirate_I-cm _hch -c each and hid) - R-oived by titbet atbitht;1960,1.t9i70cod 197t data. Isfant MortalIty Eats (pne thoeseA) - Ancua dsthe cf in0-t soeeder oeyen- PNRTYt TARGET GROfUPi of st per hoece liv bith;,p. tiet.Imted Ab-Tty Poert Inom teve (I--- 1alt)-,r96I.1tl Accs t.a.. atr.gcen f -eeles) - total, urban. and rural - N, bouepvry noelvli tha noelnlbSA115iik tombet of poople (total, urban, sad rued) with rn_eoeble nn to ate _otrtinnally edquto d1iet 1puseen 1o nec-food raqoitmate Is see weter supply (.inlde. treted suface enters or onmed but oncotminoted of p.r.e... woe fsc cm hat from prtnted heah.m. eb oine, sd ceelitery wells) c feti.. eaIePvrvicm eal(i e eio ra uo ecnageo he i rspectiv- pep.1stlons. I. soubenor pablic lordreltiv p-vrty incos level . on-hr Ifaaesperpt fonai r Itanpsst located non sate than 200 manors froc ahos maYb coeminereda ,bein wIthin --onbls aeeof that houn.. On fudsae proahsoao h onry re ee edrvdfo h oa reennable acm wul imply tha,thnb h...-nif. ar mebers of the household F,level with ndjoctmont fohigbr coat of living Ieuhe t. .P I I-~~~~~~~~~~~ttese oueio ec hnlt nan Icm ee ip. Aort.z.frbgV dont aeceead dieprepoctioot pact of the day in fethingto n r ural- 1- Pect cf populetion (ucba sod t h r bouepoor. faiY' setr seds Acme otaot PDisOe. ncnto enti -oalurnsd rgml - ebre epe(oal e, rrl ee Z I ncst dinpoal ma peecsmemga ef the. Ic top.tive populotlo- catonst die- tEnnmic sa Socia Date Division Pos.l map inlue the cel11ntien ad dispoeni, aith or eitheut treatment tEnoio Aalycie and Penjectien Deparet of fh-a secrts nd omte-teno byZwter-hom my.to or the ass OcIther 1960 pit privies end siler ieeeallat Io.  - 25 - ANNEX I Page 4 of 5 pages SIERRA LEONE ECONIC INDICATORS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1978 r79 ANNUAL RATE OF GROWrH (%, 1972/73 constant prices) USS Mln. % 1968/69-70/71 1970/71-77/8Ll 1978/79 _1/ GNP at Market Prices 871.4 100.0 7.4 0.9 1.6 Gross Domestic Investment 135.2 15.5 1.1 -1.2 11.1 Gross National Saving 22.6 2.5 - -6. 8 -45.0 Current Account Balance -116.6 13.0 Exports of Goods, NFS 209.7 24.1 -2.0 -2.0 -3.1 Imports of Goods, NFS -313.8 36.0 1.5 -0. 6 14.5 OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 1978/79 2/ Value Added Labor Force_ V. A. Per Worker USS Mln. S Agriculture 285.5 35.9 .820 67.0 348.2 53.5 Industry 174.1 21.9 .195 16.0 892.8 137.2 Services 336.0 42.2 .184 15.0 1826.1 280.7 Unallocated - .024 2.0 Total/Average 79 100.0 i71 i 6IU-= 100.0 OOVERNMDIT FINANCE GOeneral Government Central GovernTent (______of oDP La- Qln.) 197 197 196 -7 979 1978,79 1974-1975/76 Current Receipts 172.8 20.7 17.5 Current Expenditure 166.0 19.9 16.2 Current Surplus Fu. Capital Expenditures 41.6 5.0 5.4 External Asaistance (net) 36.2 4.2 4.7 MICYE. CREIST and FRICES ;1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 (i3llion La outstanding end periodT) Money and Quasi Money 84.6 91.6 111.9 136.2 179.3 214.5 Bank credit to Public Sector 3/ 23.0 56.7 107.3 119.7 182.4 252.5 Bank Credit to Private Sector 39.7 41.1 43.7 46.8 64.9 71.0 (Percentages or Index Numbers) Money and Quadi Money as % of GDP (m.p.) 17.7 16.0 18.2 18.3 22.0 23.0 General Price Index (1961 - 100) 4/ Annual percentage changes ins General Price Index 14.4 19.9 17.2 8.3 10.9 21.2 Bank credit to Public Sector 52.3 146.5 89.2 11.6 52.4 38.4 Bank credit to Private Sector 40.8 3.5 6.3 7.1 38.6 9.4 NOTEs All conversions to dollars in this table are at the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered. 1! Preliminary / Total labor force; unemployed are allocated to sector of their normal occupation. "TUnallocatede consists mainly of unemployed workers seeking their first job. 3/ Credit from the Banking System. 4/ Consumer Price Index (Freetown). not available not applicable  - 26 - ANNEX I Page 5 of 5 pages SIERRA LEONE TRADE PAIMENTS AND CAPITAL FLWS BULAICE OF PAYMENIS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS(US $ KllliQn) 1973-75 1977-79 1974 1976 1979 Average Z h aie.e -~-- (Millions US $) - 230 0 Minerals 99.1 74.1 105.8 58.4 Exports of Goods, NFS 153.5 120.0 230.0 Mieas991 7- 105. 58 Exports of Goods, NFS -217.2 -162.5 -304.2 Diamonds 80.4 60.1 97.7 53.9 Reourceof Gapo(deficit NFS ') -Iron Ore 14.3 10.7 - - Resource Gap (deficit - 63.7 - 42.5 - 74.2 Bauxite 4.4 3.3 8.1 4.5 Agr'l. Commod. 24.8 18.5 64.1 35.4 Interest Payments (net) Coffee 7.8 5.8 32 5 17.9 Workers' Remittances Cocoa 8.2 6.1 22.8 12.6 Other Factor Payments (net) - 18.8 - 25.2 - 40.9 Palm kernels 6 Prod. 8.8 6.6 8.8 4.9 Net Transfers 21.9 10.7 28.6 All other Commodities 9.9 7.4 109 Q 7 Balance on Current Account - 60. 6 - 57. 0 -