Alternative projections of the Chinese population

 F CONTENTS TABLE O Page Introduction ......................... 1 StartingAssumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 F e r t i l i t y Decline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Projected School~Age.Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Projected Working-Age Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . lh Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Appendix Tablss . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16  T a b l e 1: POPULATION TOTALS XKD XATUIZIU INCWSE UTES, 1980 TO 2030, .UTZWATIVE PROJXCTIONS P r o j e c t i o n of Pessimistic intetsediate S i s u l a t i o n of ?ro jection f e r t i l i t y decline Chinese goal Total ('000s) 2ttI /a - Total (' 000s) RLV- I /a Total ('000s 1 - 3NI /a 2030 1,662,877 1,500,291 1,137,321 2030-35 0.79 0.31 -8.69 2080 2,238,311 1,563,023 698,902 2080-85 0.57 0 -00 4.43 - /a RVI i s t h e r a t s of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e , b i i c h e q u a l s t h e c r u d e b i r c h r a t e minus t h e c r u d e d e a t h r a t e , = p r e s s e d per 100 p e r s o n s i n the p o p u l a t i o n . I n t h e absence of n e t i n t e r n a t i o n a l n i g r a t i o n , which i s n e g l i g i b l e f o r China, the El1 e q u a l s the p o p u l a t i o n growth r a t e . * E TSe f o l l o w i n g d i s c u s s i o n w i l l focus on the p r o j e c t i o n of interne-. d i a t e f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e and the s i m l a t i o n of t h e Chinese g o a l , e i t h e r of -vhich i s perceived to be a U k e l y outcome. For comparative p u r p o s e s , tefer- ences a r e made co t h e pessi'#stic p r o j e c t i o n . T a b l e s A.2 through A.5 a t t h e end of t h i s paper c o n t a i n %re d e t a i l s of the tuo p r o j e c t i o n s under consider-- a t i o n . These t a b l e s , a s = e l 5 a s Table A. 1, a r e reproduced f r o m the S t a t i s z i - c g l Appendix to Annex B ( ~ o e l a t i o n , X e a l t h and N u t r i t i o n ) .  The p r o j e c t i o n s d i f f e r i n t h r e e ways, a l l of which l e a d t o g r e a t e r numbers i n t h e pro j e c t 2 ~ nof i n t e r m e d i a t e f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e compared t o t h e s i m u l a t i o n of t h e Chin?se ,;oal. F i r s t , i n i t i a l crude b i r t h r a t e s a r e h i g h e r r e l a t i v e t o d e a t h r a t e s i n t h e i n t e r m e d i a t e p r o j e c t i o n . Second, t h e r a t e a t which f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e s is slower. However, it s h o u l d . & emphasized t h a t a t r e n d of d e c l i n i n g f e r t i l i t y and t h u s a d e c l i n i n g p o p u l a t i o n growth r a t e i s b u i l t i n t o t h e i n t e r m e d i a t e p r o j e c t i o n of f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e ; t h i s r e f l e c t s t h e assumption t h a t t h e planned b i r t h program w i l l a s s u r e some f u r t h e r - reduc- t i o n i n t h e a l r e a d y low b i r t h r a t e , though n o t a s much a s would be r e q u i r e d t o a t t a i n t h e Chinese g o a l of l i m i t i n g p o p u l a t i o n t o 1.2 b i l l i o n i n t h e y e a r 2000. Third, i n t h e i n t e r m e d i a t e p r o j e c t i o n , t h i s b u i l t - i n t r e n d of f e r t i l - i t y d e c l i n e c o n t i n u e s g r a d u a l l y u n t i l b i r t h s e q u a l d e a t h s , i.e., u n t i l a n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e r a t e of zero i s reached. P o p u l a t i o n under t h i s assumption s t a b i l i z e s a t 1.56 b i l l i o n i n t h e y e a r 2070. I n t h e s i m u l a t i o n of t h e Chinese g o a l , d e a t h s exceed b i r t h s a f t e r t h e y e a r 2000, i n o r d e r t o r e a l i z e t h e g o a l of r e d u c i n g t h e p o p u l a t i o n t o 700 m i l l i o n by t h e y e a r 2080.11 - S t a r t i n g Assumptions The s t a r t i n g p o i n t s f o r each p r o j e c t i o n a r e summarized i n T a b l e 2.12 For both, a t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n of 970.9 m i l l i o n ( e x c l u d i n g Taiwan province) - p u b l i s h e d by t h e Chinese i s used. However, t h e assumptions r e g a r d i n g c r u d e b i r t h and d e a t h r a t e s i n 1979 a r e d i f f e r e n t . F o r t h e s i m u l a t i o n of t h e o f f i c - l a 1 Chinese g o a l t h e o f f i c i a l l y r e p o r t e d b i r t h r a t e o f - 1 7 . 9 and d e a t h L r a t e of 6.2 were each i n c r e a s e d by 13.67%, t o 20.4 and 7.1 r e s p e c t i v e l y . These i n c r e a s e s produce a r a t e of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e of 1.33%, which f o l l o w s from t h e i n c r e a s e i n t h e o f f i c i a l l y r e p o r t e d s i z e of t h e 1979 p o p u l a t i o n o v e r t h a t r e p o r t e d f o r t h e 1978 p o p u l a t i o n , i n s t e a d of t h e lower r a t e of n a t u r a l i n c r e a s e of 1.17% which f o l l o w s from t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e o f f i c i a l l y r e p o r t e d v i t a l r a t e s ( s e e T a b l e A.1, columns 5 and 6 ) . Both t h e p o p u l a t i o n t o t a l s and t h e v i t a l r a t e s a r e based on a g g r e g a t i o n s of l o c a l p o p u l a t i o n r e g i s t e r s ; i n e f f e c t we a r e assuming t h a t t h e i n c r e a s e i n t h e t o t a l s i z e of t h e p o p u l a t i o n from 1978 t o 1979 i s a more a c c u r a t e i n d i c a t i o n of growth t h a n t h e d i f f e r e n c e between a l l b i r t h s and a l l d e a t h s t h a t were r e g i s t e r e d i n 1979. The adjustment upward is e q u i v a l e n t t o t h e assumption t h a t under- r e p o r t i n g of b i r t h s and d e a t h s ( a s c a p t u r e d i n v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s ) i s propor- . t i o n a t e l y t h e same t - t h a t about 12% of b i r t h s and d e a t h s were n o t counted. - - .9 - /I The f e r t i l i t y assumption of t h e p e s s i m i s t i c p r o j e c t i o n r e s u l t s i n a n - & e v e r - i n c r e a s i n g population. * * i 0 - I2 The s t a r t i n g p o i n t s f o r t h e p e s s i m i s t i c p r o j e c t i o n a r e t h e same as t h o s e assumed f o r t h e p r o j e c t i o n of i n t e r m e d i a t e f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e . p a s t r e l a t i v e l y h i g h l e v e l s of f e r t i l i t y and n o r t a l i t y . / l Declining f e r t i l i t y and m o r t a l i t y s c h e d u l e s f o r 1950 t h r o u g h 1 9 7 9 y e r e u s e d , such t h a t by 191'9 t h e b i r t h rate would be 21.1, t h e d e a t h rate would be 7.8, and t h e p o p u l a t i o n growth r a t e would be 1.33% p e r year. The age d i s t r i b u t i o n used as t h e 1950 s t a r t i n g p o i n t d i f f e r s from t h e 1953 age d i s t r i b u t i o n based on t h e Chinese c e n s u s of t h a t y e a r i n t h a t a l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n of t h e p o p u l a t i o n (42% vs. 36% i n t h e census) i s assumed t o be under a g e 1 5 , r e f l e c t i n g a n assumption of p a s t h i g h e r f e r t i l i t y . I n c o n t r a s t , t h e d e r i v e d age d i s t r i b u t i o n f o r 1980 used i n t h e s e p r o j e c t i o n s d i f f e r s from t h a t i m p l i c i t i n r e c e n t l y r e l e a s e d C h i n e s e f i g u r e s i n t h a t a s m a l l e r p r o p o r t i o n of t h e p o p u l a t i o n i s assumed t o be under age 15 (32% f o r 1980 v s 38.6% i n r e p o r t s f o r 1978 based on sample surveys.) The f i g u r e r e l e a s e d may be l a r g e r because i t does not r e f l e c t a s w e l l t h e r e p o r t e d f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e of t h e 1970s; i t is i n f a c t q u i t e c l o s e t o t h e r e p o r t e d - 1953 a g e d i s t r u b u t i o n . 1 2 For any g i v e n crude b i r t h r a t e , a c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e 1 3 w i l l depend on t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n of b i r t h s a c r o s s women of d i f f e r e n t a g e s a n d t h e number of women of d i f f e r e n t ages. S i m i l a r l y , f o r any d e a t h 11 7 A g r o s s r e p r o d u c t i o n rate of 2.9 was assumed, e q u i v a l e n t t o a t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e of a b o u t 6. An e x p e c t a t i o n of l i f e a t b i r t h of 44.89 w a s assumed. The g r o s s r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e i s t h e a v e r a g e number of d a u g h t e r s t h a t would be born t o a woman ( o r group of women) d u r i n g h e r l i f e t i m e i f s h e passed through h e r c h i l d b e a r i n g y e a r s conforming t o t h e a g e - s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y r a t e s of a given y e a r . T h i s rate c o u n t s only d a u g h t e r s , and i s a measure of r e p r o d u c t i o n - a woman r e p r o d u c i n g h e r s e l f by having a daughter. For t h e e x p e c t a t i o n of l i f e , t h e West Model l i f e t a b l e s were used. T h i s model i s b e l i e v e d oa r e p r e s e n t t h e most g e n e r a l m o r t a l i t y p a t t e r n , and i s o f t e n recommended as a f i r s t c h o i c e t o r e p r e s e n t m o r t a l i t y i n c o u n t r i e s where t h e r e is no e v i d e n c e t h a t would c l e a r l y s u g g e s t t h a t a n o t h e r model i s more a p p r o p r i a t e . - 12 For d i s c u s s i o n , s e e H. Yuan T i e n , "Age-Sex S t a t i s t i c s f o r China: 'What Do Recent N a t u n a l D i s c l o s u r e s and L o c a l F i g u r e s Reveal?" . I P o p u l a t i o n and Development Review 6:4 (December, 1980), 651-662. For a d i s t r i b u t i o n of t h e p o p u l a t i o n by f i v e - y e a r age groups based on a massive s u r v e y i n most of China's p r o v i n c e s i n 1975 o n t h e c a u s e s of d e a t h , s e e J u d i t h B a n i s t e r and Samuel H. ~ r e s t o g , ' ' N o r t a l i t y i n China," P o p u l a t i o n and Development Review 7 : l (March 19l$l), p. 99. I n t h o s e - d a t a , t h e r e p o r t e d p r o p o r t i o n of t h e population-under age 15 was 38.28%. - The t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e (TFR) i n d i c a t e s t h e a v s a g e number of c h i l d r e n t h a t would be born t o each woman i n a p o p u l a t i o n i f each were t~ l i v e through t h e c h i l d - b e a r i n g year; ( u s u a l l y c o n s i d e r e d a g e s 15-49) b e a r i n g c h i n d r e n a t t h e same r a t e a s women of t h o s e a g e s a c t u a l l y d i d i n a g i v e n year.  r a t e , a c o r r e s p o n d i n g l i f e expectancy /1w i l l depend on t h e age d i s t r i b u t i o n of d e a t h s and t h e number of p e r s o n s of d i f f e r e n t ages. Using t h e d e r i v e d age d i s t r i b u t i o n , a United E a t i o n s s c h e d u l e of a g e - s p e c i f i c f e r t i l i t y r a t e s and t h e West Model l i f e t a b l e s , t h e two s e t s of v i t a l r a t e s f o r China correspond t o t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e s f o r 1979 o f 2.66 f o r t h e o f f i c i a l g o a l p r o j e c t i o n and 2.75 f o r t h e p r o j e c t i o n ~ f i n t e r m e d i z t e f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e ; and t o l i f e expectancy i n 1979 o f 66.16 f o r t h e o f f i c i a l g o a l p r o j e c t i o n a d 63.86 f o r t h e p r o j e c t i o n of i n t e r m e d i a t e f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e . F e r t i l i t y Decline T a b l e 3 summarizes t h e two s e t s of p r o j e c t e d t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e s , and t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g c r u d e b i r t . . r a t e s , f o r t h e p e r i o d 1980-2025. The assumption u n d e r l y i n g t h e p r o j e c t i o n of i n t e r m e d i a t e f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e i s t h a t replacement f e r t i l i t y - i . e . a n e t r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e of 1 .OO (which is u s u a l l y c l o s e t o a t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e of 2.00) - w i l l be reached i n 2000- 05, and t h a t t h e r e a f t e r f e r t i l i t y ' w i l l be h e l d c o n s t a n t a t a t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e of j u s t above 2. Table 3: FERTILITY, 1980-2025, TWO PROJECTIONS P r o j e c t i o n of intermediate S i m u l a t i o n of f e r t i l i t y decline Chinese g o a l Year TFR C BR TFR CBR I- Note: TFR: CBR: T o t a l F e r t i l i t y Rate. Crude B i r t h Rate. - - '9 Even were t h i s d e c l i n e i n f e r t i l i t y r e a l i z e d , t h e p o p u l a t i o n wouPd= c o n t i n u e t o grow at more t h a n o n e p e r c e n t a y e a r up t o 2000, due t o t h e - - C l a r g e numbers of young pepple who w i l l be e n t e r i n g c h i l d b e a r i n g y e a r s . . 9 - /l L i f e expectancy i s an e s t i m a t e of t h e a v e r a g e number of y e a r s a person, born i n a p a r t i c u l a r y e a r , i s expected t o l i v e , g i v e n t h e p r e v a i l i n g m o r t a l i t y schedule. It is a h y p o t h e t i c a l measure and an i d i e a r s r of c u r r e n t h e a l t h c o n d i t i o n s , r a t h e r than a r a t e .  These numbers a r e r e f l e c t e d i n t h e c r u d e b i r t h r a t e , which would f a l l only s l i g h t l y , from i t s p r e s e n t l e v e l of a b o u t 21.1 p e r 1,000 t o 16.8 for 2000-2005. .Assuming g r a d u a l c o n t i n u e d g a i n s i n l i f e e x p e c t a n c y , the crude d e a t h - r a t e ( n o t shown) would f a l l o n l y s l i g h t l y from t h e c u r r e n t 7.8 p e r 1,000 t o 6.9 f o r t h e y e a r s 2000-2005, s i n c e t h e p o p u l a t i o n would have i n c r e a s i n g p r o p o r t i o n s of o l d people. I n t h e s i m u l a t i o n of t h e o f f i c i a l g o a l , t h e t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e d e c l i n e s much more r a p i d l y , r e a c h i n g 2.0 by t h e p e r i o d 1990-95 and 1.6 b y t h e p e r i o d 1995-2000; t h i s i s r e q u i r e d t o l i m i t p o p u l a t i o n t o 1.2 b i l l i o n i n 2000. F e r t i l i t y t h e n d e c l i n e s t o a n even lower l e v e l t o a c h i e v e t h e g o a l of 700 m i l l i o n p e o p l e by 2080. L i f e e x p e c t a n c y r i s e s t o a n a v e r a g e o f a b o u t 75, a s i n t h e p r o j e c t i o n of i n t e r m e d i a t e f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e . Even t h e f e r t i l i t y r a t e s used i n t h e p r o j e c t i o n of i n t e r m e d i a t e f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e a r e low compared t o o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , a s shown i n Table 4. To slow p o p u l a t i o n growth i n China r e q u i r e s t h e s e low t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e s because of t h e l a r g e i n c r e a s e s i n t h e c h i l d b e a r i n g c o h o r t s t h a t a r e bound t o o c c u r o v e r t h e n e x t two decades due t o h i g h f e r t i l i t y a d h i g h r a t e s of c h i l d s u r v i v a l i n t h e 1950s s n d 1960s. T a b l e 5 shows how the numbzr of women i n t h e a g e group 20 t o 34 ( t h e e f f e c t i v e c h i l d b e a r i n g y e a r s i n China, where a g e a t m a r r i a g e i s r e l a t i v e l y h i g h ) h a s i n c r e a s e d i n t h e p r o j e c t i o n of i n t e r m e d i a t e f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e , and w i l l c o n t i n u e t o i n c r e a s e i n a b s o l u t e numbers, f o r t h e y e a r s 1950 t o 2000. The numbers of s u c h women w i l l inti-ease from a b o u t 125 m i l l i o n now t o 151 m i l l i o n i n t h e y e a r 2 0 0 0 , j l - Given t h e s e s t e a d y i n c r e a s e s i n t h e numbers who w i l l b e b e a r i n g c h i l d r e n , a - r e d u c t i o n of p o p u l a t i o n growth more r a p i d t h a n t h a t of t h e i n t e r m e d i a t e pro- j e c t i o n w i l l r e q u i r e t h a t f e r t i l i t y f a l l below r e p l a c e m e n t - l e v e l on a v e r c g e - It i s f o r t h i s r e a s o n t h a t t h e Chinese a r e now promoting t h e one-child f M I y a s a norm.4 - /1 See a l s o Table A . 6 , which shows changes i n t h e number o f women r e a c h i n g a g e 2 3 between 1980 and 1995, a c c o r d i n g t o t h e p r o j e c t i o n of i n t e r - m e d i a t e f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e on t h e one hand, and a c c o r d i n g t o a p r o j e c t i o m by L i u Zheng, a Chinese demographer, on t h e o t h e r . The Zheng p r o j e c t i c w . @ i n d i c a t e s even g r e a t e r i n c r e a s e s i n t h e number of women e n t e r i n g c h i l d b e a r i n g y e a r s , ' and r e f l e c t s a n a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n which p u t s a , h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n of t h e p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e younger a g e groups. The i n c r e a s e L m t h e 20-34 a g e g r o u p shown i n T a b l e 5 , though s u b s t a n t i a : i n a b s o l u t e numbers, i s n o t much g r e a t e r tlian t h e i n c r e a s e i n t h e t o t a ~ s i t e of the p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e same p e r i o d . - /2 A c o n t i n u i n g d e c l i n e i n p o p u l a t i o n a f t e r t h e yea-r 2000, t o t h e 700 mil- l i o n l e v e l i n 2080, would r e q u i r e , a c c o r d i n g t o t h i s s i m u l a t i o n , t h a r t h e t o t a l f e r t i l i t y r a t e remain a t 1.00 u n t i l a & u t t h e y e a r 2025; Lt c o u l d t h e n g r a d u a l l y r i s e t o replacement l e v e l ( a b o u t 2 ) .  Table 4 : DECLINE IN TOTAL FERTILITY RATE, WORLD BANK PROJECTION, IN CHINA AND OTHFR SELECTED COUNTRIES World Bank' Projection 1975-78 1980-85 1990-95 2000-05 China 3.011 2.428 2.304 2.136 India 4.982 4.454 3.668 3.312 Indonesia 4.950 4.512 3.629 2.950 Sri Lanka 3.895 3.549 2.851 2.316 Republic of Korea 3.383 3.085 2.566 2.134 USA 1.930 1.966 2.041 2.079 Source: World Bank projections, 1981. Table 5 : WOMEN AGED 20-34 IN CHINA, 1950-2000 Year Total Number ( 0 0 0 ) Index ( 1 980 = 1 ) Projected School-Age Population The difference in kotal population sire betwien the two pro jectioms is not large in the year 2000 - about 37 million or approximately 14% of t h e increase in population during the period uo:ng the intermediate projection- The populatioa increases by 27% in the projection of intermediate fertility decline and 22% in the official goal projection. In comparison, it - increased by about 45% in the past two decades. * *  P r o j e c t e d Wo&rkx?--Age P o p u l a t i o n T a b l e 7 summarizes p a s t and p r o j e c t e d f u t u r e growth o f t h e working- a g e p o p u l a t i o n (15-64) and t h e young e n t r y - l e v e l g r o u p (15-30). (See a l s o T a b l e A.3). In t h e projection of intermediate f e r t i l i t y decline, t h e t o t a l working-cge p o p u l a t i o n , which h a s a l m o s t doubled i n s i s i n c e 1950, i n c r e a s e s by a n a d d i t i o n a l 552, from a b o u t 620 m i l l i o n t o 9 6 4 - m i l l i o n by 2020, and c o n t i n u e s growing, though more s l o w l y , t h e r e a f t e r . I n t h e simula- t i o n of t h e Chinese g o a l , t h e s i z e of t h e group i n c r e a s e s by a b o u t 40% i n t h e n e x t 40 y e a r s . The d i f f e r e n c e s i n s i z e between t h e two p r o j e c t i o n s a r e of c o u r s e minimal u n t i l a f t e r t h e y e a r 2010, a s s e e n i n F i g u r e s 2 and 3. The group a s a whole w i l l be 47% l a r g e r i n t h a t y e a r t h a n i t i s today. From 1980 t o 2000, t h e a v e r a g e a n n u a l numbers of t h e p o p u l a t i o n e n t e r i n g working a g e (e.g. t u r n i n g a g e 2 0 ) , a c c o r d i n g t o t h e p r o j e c t i o n o f interme- d i a t e f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e , w i l l be 20 m i l l i o n . By 2030, t h i s number w i l l b e reduced t o 19 m i l l i o n g i v e n t h e i n t e m z d i a t e p r o j e c t i o n . f t would be reduced much more, t o 9 m i l l i o n , g i v e n o u r s i m u l a t i o n o f t h e Chinese g o a l . I t i s n o t a b l e t h a t even g i v e n t h e s u b s t a n t i a l f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e s p r c j e c t e d , t h e working-age grow. does n o t d e c l i n e a s a p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e t o t a l popu a t i o n o v e r t h e n e x t . ;ears. Indeed, a s shown i n T a b l e 8 , i n t h e p r o j e c t i o n of i n t e r m e d i a t e z r t i l i t y d e c l i n e , i t i n c r e a s e s t o 65% from t h e c u r r e n t 64%, and i n t h e s i m u l a t i o n i t i n c r e a s e s t o 68%. I n t h e same p e r i o d t.le school-age p o p u l a t i o n f a l l s s u b s t a n t i a l l y a s a p r o p o r t i o n of t h e t o t a l , from 21% today t o 13% i n t h e i n t e r m e d i a t e p r o j e c t i o n , and t o ' 8 % i n t h e s i m u l a t i o n of t h e Chinese g o a l ( T a b l e A.4). T h e r e w i l l n o t be a problem o f t o o l a f g e a p r o p o r t i o n of o l d people, a t l e a s t u n t i l well i n t o t h e 2 1 s t century. I n Table 8 t h e c u r r e n t a g e d i s t r i b u t i . c n and p r o j e c t e d a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n s i n t h e y e a r s 2000 and 2030 i a r e summarized and compared t o t h e c u r r e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n s i n s e l e c t i d o t h e r c o u n t r i e s . The T a b l e i n d i c a t e s t h a t though t h e p r o p o r t i o n of o l d p e r s o n s w i l l i n c r e a s e i n China, i t w i l l , under t h e " i n t e r m e d i a t e " p r o j e c t i o r s e t o f a s s u m p t i o n s , s t i l l c o n s t i t u t e l e s s t h a n 15% o f t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e y e a r 2030, compared t o a b o u t 16% i n Sweden and 11% i n t h e US t o d a y . The p r o j e c t i o n s i m u l a t i n g t h e Chinese g o a l s w i t h i t s more r a p i d f e r t i l i t y d e c l i n e , l e a d s t o almost 20% o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n b e i n g o v e r a g e 65 by 2030. But even t h e n , a s n o t e d ~ a b o v e , t h e working-age p o p u l a t i o n w i l l s t i l l r c o n s t i t u t e more t h a n 65% of t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n , compared t o 64% today. T h e r e would, of c o u r s e , be r e l a t i v e l y fewer c h i l d r e n - 12% compared t o 33% r oday .  ~46400/~7485l/D995/19 - 14 - T a b l s 8: CURREXT LVD 33OJECTED AGE DIST3IFVTION OF CiiI?IA, AVD CUREXT ACE DLSTX3UTION O F SELECTID OTIEX COUNTRIZS - Country 0-14 15-6 4 6% China, 1980 32.26 63.66 rC.08 P r o j e c t i o n of I n t e m e d i a t t F e r t i l i t y Decline Chiaa, 2000 25.04 68.19 6.77 I China, 2030 20.51 65.19 14.29 S i m u l a t i o n of O f f i c i a l Goal China, 2000 21.91 70.89 7.21 - China, 2030 12.11 63.46 19.43 I n d i a , 1980 I n d o n e s i a , 1980 Korea, 1980 33.98 61.72 3.91 Xexico, 1980 45.14 51.42 3.43 United S t a t e s , 1980 23.04 66.07 10.90 Sweden, 1980 19.79 64.30 15.90 Banister, Judith and Samuel Preston. "I-fortality i n China ," forthcoming i n Population and Development Review. United Nations, Departinent 02 Economic and S o c i a l A f f a i r s Computer output (1980 r e v i s i o n ) o f V ' N demographic informatioll by country, New York, 1980. World Bank. World Development Report, 1980.  - 16 - Table A.l: POPULATION TOTALS, BIRTH, DUTH AND INCREASE RATES. 1949-79: OFFICIAL AND SEN-OFFICIAL DATA (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) R a t e of Year-end Crude Crude natural h t e of Census Year totals birth death increase increase totals ( '000) rates rates (3)-(6) [Based on ( 2 ) ('000) 1949 561,670 1950 551,960 37.00 18.00 19.00 18.82 1951 563,000 19.80 1952 574,820 37.00 17.00 20.00 20.78 1953 587.960 22.60 . 582,603 1954 601.720 37.79 13.18 24.79 23.13 1955 616.650 32.60 12.28 20.32 21.25 1956 627,800 31.90 11.40 20.50 21.17 1957 666,530 36.03 10.80 23.23 29.40 1960 25.40 1962 37.00 10.00 27.00 1963 43.60 19.10 33.50 691,220 1964 . * 1965 725,380 38.10 9.60 28.50 - /a These r a t e s a r e . c a l c u l a t e d compounding. 0.- t h e b a s i s of e x p o n e n t i a l , o r c o n t i n u o u s Sources: YearEnd P o p u l a t i o n T o t a l s . 1949-56: S t a t i s t i c a l Work. June 1957. 1957 : Ten Great Years, September 1959. 1965: 1970-79: Provided t o t h e m i s s i o n by t h e SSB. 1980: "Coninunique on t h e F u l f i l l m e n t o f China's 1980 N a t i o n a l Economic Plan." NCNA Broadcast, A p r i l 29. 1981. Crude B i r c h and Death Rates 1960: Sun Yefang. "Conselidate S t a t i s t i c s Vork. Reform t h e S t s t i s t i c s System," J u n q j i Cuanli No. 2. February 13, 1981 ( F o r e i g n Broad- c a s t Information S e r v i c e , March 26. 1981). 1950, 1962: U u Zheng, "The P r e s e n t S i t u a t i o n and t h e Development o f China's Population." B e i j i n g I n t e r n a t i o n a l Round .Table Con- f e r e n c e on Demography, October 1980. 1952. 1954-57. 1971. 1977: Provided t o P i x h a o Chen i n 1979 by SSB official. - - 1963: Uang JianmLn, "Earnestly C o n t r o l t h e Growth of Population." Uenhuibao. Shanghai. J u l y 12. 1979. p. 3; and Song J i a n . "On t h e Problem o f t h e T a r g e t s f o r China's P o p u l a t i o n Development." 3 Benmia r i b a o , B e i j i n g . a r c h 7. 1980. p. 5. = 1970. 1972-76: Provided t o t h e mission by t h e SSB. - 1978: Chen Muhua, "For t h e Realization of t h e Four ! i o d e r n i z a t i o n s . e T h e r e Xusc be Planned C o n t r o l of Population Growth." Renmin r i b a o . B e i j i n g . August 11. 1979. p. 2. 1979: SSB. bumunique on t h e F u l f i l l m e n t of C h i n s ' s 1979 N a t i o n a l Economic Plan," Xinhua - E n g l i s h , B e i j i n g , A p r i l 30, 1980, F o r e i g n Broadcast I n f o r m a t i o n S e r v i c e , No. 85, A p r i l 30, 1980, p. LIO. Census T o t a l s 1953: " b m r m n i q ~ eof R e s u l t s of Census and R e g i s t r a t i o n o f China's Population." Xinhua. B e i j i n g , Nov. 1, 1956. American Consulate General. Hong Kong, C u r r e n t Background. No. 301, Nov. 30, 1954. 1964: China A t l a s . Bcijing. 1972, c i t e d i n John Aird. "Recent Provin- c i a l ? o p u l a t i o n Figures." The Chins Q u a r t e r l y , No. 73, b r c h 1978, 2 . 16. Table A. 6: WOEiEfl REXCHIXG YARRZXGE AGE (ACE 2 3 ) , 1980-95, AS A PERCEXT OF 1950 Year !Jorld Bank p r o j e c t i o n - Liu Zheng /a - /a Liu Zheng, "The Present S i t u a t i o n and the Development of China's Population," paper f o r the Beijing Inter- n a t i o n a l Round Table Conference on Demography, October 1980, p . 10.  POPULATION & H l r i ! ' RESOURCES DIVISION [A *by t h e numbsr i n d i c a t e s t h e paper is Ban k c o n f i d e n t i a l o r o t h e r w i s e r e s t r i c t e d .I Oey A. Meesoo k, "Demographic C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of I n d i v i d u a l s and t h e Meascrement of L i f e t i m e Income". February 1981. Susan 8. Cochrane, "The Econosics o f F e r t i l i t y with Examples from Asia". February 1981. Rashid Faruqee, " S o c i a l I n f r a s t r u c t u r e and S e r v i c e s i n Zimbabe" ;.*bruary 1981. Richard Sabot, e t a l . , "Cognitive S I d l l s : T h e i r Determinants and I n f l u e n c e on Earnings i n ' T w Poor Urban Economies". February 1981. Dean T. J a n i s o n , e t al., "Inprovixq Elementary Mathematics Education i n Nicaragua: An E x p e r i n e n t a l Study o f t h e I n p a c t o f Textboo ls and Radio on Achievement". >larch 1981.' Rashid Faruqee, "Analyzing t h e Impact of H e a l t h S e r v i c e s : Narangtal and Other Experiences". March 1981. J. B. Knight and B. H. Sabot, ' t a b o r Market D i s c r i n i n a t i o n ir. a Poor Urban Economy". March 1981. Oey A. Meesook, " I n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t e e n Demographic F a c t o r s and Income D i s t r i b u t i o n : Problems of Measurement, D e s c r i p t i o n and Interpretation." A p r i l 1981. Susan H . Cochrane, Nirmala J o s h i and Kalpana Nandwani. " F e r t i l i t y A t t i t u d e s and Behavior i n t h e Nepal Terai." A p r i l 1981. J . B . Knight and Richard Sabot, "The Role of t h e F i n n i n Wage Determination: An q r i c a n Case Study." A p r i l 1981. . . J.B. Knight and Richard Sabot, "The R e t u r n s t o Education: Zr,creasing w i t h Experience o r Decreasing with Expansion?". March 1981. - - J.B. Knight and Richard Sabot, "From H i g r a n t s t o P r o l e t d t i a n s : - Employment Experience, M o b i l i t y and Wages i n ~ a n z a n i a . " March 1981. . b 0 A. B e r y and Richard Tabot, l'Unemployment and Economic Rvelopment." I A p r f l 1981. Rashid Faruqee and Ethna Johnson, "Health, N u t r i t i o n and Family Plannfry: A'Survey o f Experiments and S p e c i a l P r o j e c t s i n I n d i a . " A p r i l 1981- F r a n c o i s O r i v e l and Dean T. Jamison, "The Cost-Effectiveness of D i s t a n c e Teaching P r o j ec ts", June 1981