India - West Bengal Social Forestry Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FILE Copy Report No. P-3119-IN REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO INDIA FOR THE WEST BENGAL SOCIAL FORESTRY PROJECT September 15, 1981 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (As of September 8, 1981) US$1.00 = Rs. 9.204325 Rs 1.00 - US$ 0.10864 Rs 1 million = US$ 108,640 The U.S. Dollar/Rupee exchange rate is subject to change. Conversions in the Staff Appraisal Report were made at US$1.00 to Rs 8.0, which represents the projected average exchange rate over the disbursement period. FISCAL YEAR April 1 - March 31 ABBREVIATIONS CCF Chief Conservator of Forests CF Conservator of Forests FEW Forest Extension Worker cOI Government of India GOWB Government of West Bengal SFW Social Forestry Wing ton metric ton WBFD West Bengal Forestry Department  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY INDIA WEST BENGAL SOCIAL FORESTRY PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: India, acting by its President Beneficiary: The State of West Bengal (GOWB) Amount: SDR 25.8 million (US$29 million equivalent) Terms: Standard Relending Terms: From the Government of India (GOI) to the Government of West Bengal (GOWB), as part of Central assistance for State development projects on terms and conditions applicable at the time. Project Description: The project would increase supplies of fuelwood for domestic use in rural areas through the establishment of 93,000 ha of plantations on private and public wastelands throughout the State. It would also pro- vide poles, bamboo, small timber, fodder grass, fruits, oilseeds and other forest produce from these same plantations, introduce energy-efficient stoves, generate paid employment for the rural poor, help to stabilize the environment, and establish the Social Forestry Wing of the State Forestry Department. Potential project risks are that the free distribution of seedlings might lead to some waste, that village panchayats might lack sufficient leadership and incentive to assume responsibility for village woodlots, and that there might be resistance to the introduction of a new type of stove. These risks would be minimized by the careful monitoring and supervision of planting programs, and public information and education efforts. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance I of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  - tii - Estimated Project Cost: a/ (US Millions) Local Foreign Total Planting Programs 21.62 0.66 22.28 Staff Costs 5.15 - 5.15 Operating Costs 1.02 0.68 1.70 .Vehicles & Equipment 0.58 0.19 0.77 Buildings & Housing 1.47 - 1.47 Training & Fellowships 0.56 0.17 0.73 Research 0.04 0.01 0.05 Stove Facilities 0.05 - 0.05 Monitoring & Evaluation 0.11 0.01 0.12 Sub-total 32.60 1.72 32.32 Physical Contingencies 1.26 0.03 1.29 Price Contingencies 9.36 0.53 9.89 Total Project Cost 41.22 2.28 43.50 a/ Including an estimated US$1.3 million in taxes and duties. (US$ Million) Financing Plan: Local Foreign Total IDA 26.7 2.3 29.0 GOI/GOWB 14.5 - 14.5 Total 41.2 2.3 43.5 Estimated Disbursements: a/ (USS Million) FY82 FY83 FY84 FY85 FY86 FY87 FY88 Annual 3.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 7.0 2.0 Cumulative 3.0 6.0 1D.0 14.0 20.0 27.0 29.0 a! According to IDA's fiscal year. Rate of Return: About 28%. Appraisal Report: No. 3434-IN, dated September 15, 1981.  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO INDIA FOR THE WEST BENGAL SOCIAL FORESTRY PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed credit to India for SDR 25.8 million (US$29 million equivalent) on standard IDA terms, to help finance a social forestry program in the State of West Bengal. The project would increase supplies of fuelwood and other forest produce in rural areas, offer paid employment to the poorest segment of the population and help to stabilize the environment. The Government of India (GOI) would channel the proceeds of the credit to the Government of West Bengal (GOWB) in acordance with GOI's standard terms and arrangements for financing State development projects. The exchange risk would be borne by GOI. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. An economic report, "Economic Situation and Prospects of India" (3401-IN, dated April 15, 1981), was distributed to the Executive Directors on April 16, 1981. Country data sheets are attached as Annex I. Background 3. India is a large and diverse country with a population of about 688 million (in mid-1981) and an annual per capita income of US$190. Agriculture continues to dominate India's economy, employing over two-thirds of the labor force. However, the land base is not sufficient to provide an adequate livelihood to all those engaged in agricultural activities, especially the landless or nearly landless who have only an insecure grasp on the means of existence. Over the past 30 years, the share of agriculture in GDP at factor cost (measured in 1970/71 prices) has declined from 60% to about 40%, while the share of industry has increased from 15% to about 24%. But industrialization has not been rapid enough to absorb the growing labor force, nor to bring about the economic transformation that has led to sig- nificantly higher productivity in some other developing countries. 4. Economic growth has been slow in the past, averaging about 3.5% per annum over the past 30 years. Slow growth of value-added in agriculture -- 1/ Parts I and II of the report are substantially the same as Parts I and II of the President's Reports for the Tamil Nadu Newsprint Project (No. P-3114-IN), dated August 25, 1981 and the Madhya Pradesh Major Irrigation Project (No. P-3115-IN), dated August 26, 1981.  -2- 2.1% per annum over the three decades -- has constrained overall growth, not only because of the high share of agriculture in GDP but also because scarce foreign exchange has often been required to import food. Industrial value-added has grown more rapidly, at 5.4% per annum between 1950/51 and 1979/80. Over the same period, gross domestic savings more than doubled from 10% of GDP to 21.2%, while gross domestic investment rose from 10% of GDP to just over 21.8%. Foreign savings have never financed a large portion of domestic investment: a peak of about 20% was reached during the early 1960s; by the end of the 1970s, the proportion had returned to below 3%. External assistance has been low both as a percentage of GDP and in per capita terms. Net external assistance has never risen above 3% of GDP, and was less than 1% at the end of the 1970s. 5. Over the past 30 years as a whole, India has placed relatively little emphasis on exports and has tended to pursue a strategy of import substitu- tion. The volume growth of exports between 1950/51 and 1979/80 averaged only 3.6% per annum, about the same as the volume growth of imports over the same period. Between 1970 and 1977, however, India's terms of trade, which had remained roughly constant during the 1960s, deteriorated sharply. In response, the Government introduced various policy measures designed to stimulate exports. The volume of India's exports grew on average about 9% per annum between 1971/72 and 1976/77. Although export growth has slowed in recent years, due in large part to domestic supply constraints, this experience demonstrates that sustained rapid growth is possible. While expanding world markets, particularly in the nearby Middle East, contributed to this growth, liberalized access to imported inputs and more effective export incentives played a major role. Recent Trends 6. Over the period 1975/76 to 1978/79, growth in real GDP (at factor cost), agricultural value-added and industrial value-added averaged 5.4%, 3.1% and 7.9% per annum, respectively. These trends represent a substan- tially better growth performance than the historical 30-year trends (paragraph 4). However, GDP declined by about 4.5% in 1979/80 due both to the severe drought which reduced agricultural production and to input con- straints in other sectors. Agricultural output fell by about 16% in 1979/80. Industrial production stagnated, largely due to shortfalls in the production of major inputs such as coal, steel and cement, as well as infrastructural constraints, notably in power and transportation. As a consequence of these developments, the remarkable price stability that India had enjoyed after 1975 came to an abrupt end at the close of fiscal year 1978/79, with prices increasing 21% during 1979/80. 7. In 1980/81, the economy recovered substantially, so that real GDP growth for the year was about 6%-7%. During the summer and fall of 1980 foodgrain prices rose, but more slowly than other prices and more slowly than the drop in production in 1979/80 would have suggested. This was made pos- sible through the drawdown of substantial buffer stocks built up by the Government in years of good harvests. These stocks ensured adequate supplies of grain to low-income groups in urban areas through the public distribution system and also provided resources for a large-scale drought relief employ- ment program for low-income groups in rural areas. Aided by a normal monsoon in the summer of 1980, agricultural production rose by about 17%-19%. The  -3- industrial sector recovered more slowly, with production in 1980/81 rising only about 4% above the average for 1979/80, but output increased substan- tially during the year so that production in April 1981 was about 9% higher than in April 1980. The rise in prices slowed during the second half of 1980/81 so that by March 1981 the wholesale price index was 15.7% above its level a year earlier. 8. In agriculture the positive results of large investments and appropriate policies in the past years are becoming increasingly apparent. The rate of expansion of irrigation has increased significantly from 1.3 mil- lion ha per year in the early 1970s to about 2.3 million ha in 1980/81. Fertilizer use reached about 5.6 million tons of nutrients in 1980/81, more than double 1974/75 levels. Over the decade before 1979/80, foodgrain production grew at about 2.75% per annum -- sufficient to meet consumer demand, to eliminate imports (which had averaged nearly 5 million tons per year for the 15 years preceding 1976), and to reduce real foodgrain prices for consumers. At the same time, India was able to build up substantial foodgrain buffer stocks which made it possible to limit the effects of the 1979/80 drought, and to export a modest amount of grain in 1980. While the management of the foodgrain economy after the drought was a significant achievement, the effect of the drought on production re-emphasized the con- tinued importance of the monsoon in India's agriculture. The normal monsoon of 1980/81 brought foodgrain production back to around the previous record level of 132 million tons. While the performance of the recent past and the probable future trends suggest that on average foodgrain supplies will exceed demand, the balance remains delicate and the need for foodgrain imports to maintain consumer supplies or adequate buffer stocks could arise from time to time. For example, some wheat imports are likely in 1981/82 to ensure ade- quate build up of stocks. Programs to expand irrigation, strengthen exten- sion and encourage the efficient use of other agricultural inputs continue to receive high priority. 9. The Indian economy has shifted back from a situation of resource surplus, which had been a temporary phenomenon of the late 1970s, to one of resource scarcity. Investment has again overtaken domestic savings, and the scope for further increases in the latter appears limited. Marginal savings rates have recently been well above 30% in the household sector. Future increases in savings will depend heavily upon the enhanced profitability of public sector enterprises. Impending resource scarcity is even more apparent in the foreign sector. Between 1975/76 and 1978/79, India's current account deficit had remained comfortably small in relation both to GDP and to a growing pipeline of aid commitments. This was due to favorable terms of trade movements after 1977 and to rapidly growing workers' remittances as well as to the growth of exports. In 1980/81, however, the balance of pay- ments deteriorated sharply, with the current account deficit rising from US$850 million in 1979/80 to nearly US$3.4 billion in 1980/81. In part this was due to unique events during the year, such as the disruption of oil production in the Northeast, which, though the flows resumed again in February 1981, alone added over US$1 billion to the oil import bill. Com- bined with unprecedented oil price increases, this caused the oil import bill to rise by over 75%, to a level equivalent to three-fourths of India's mer- chandise export earnings. The deficit on current account rose to 2% of GDP. India was able to finance this gap through a substantial drawing on IMF resources (the Trust Fund and the Compensatory Financing Facility), and  -4- through an increase in aid disbursements and a modest drawdown in foreign exchange reserves. 10. The trends in the volume and terms of India's trade indicate that significant adjustments will need to be made in the economy to bring India's external accounts into reasonable balance at a high level of growth. In particular, there is a need to increase the growth of exports, to increase production of commodities such as fertilizer, cement and steel which India can produce efficiently in order to reduce imports of these items, to moderate the rise in oil imports through greater domestic production and slower demand growth, and to reduce the constraints in transportation and other infrastructural facilities which are retarding growth in a wide range of activities, including exports. It is encouraging that, in response to the present balance of payments difficulties, the Government has not reacted by placing more stringent controls on imports, but rather has left in place the more liberal policies evolved in the past several years. Recent improvements in the availability of power, a major constraint facing exporters, and the adoption of several new export policy measures have improved the prospects for accelerating export growth. Development Prospects 11. The experience of recent years illustrates that India does have the capacity to grow and develop at a more rapid pace. Although the industrial sector is small compared to the size of the economy, it nevertheless is large in absolute terms and has a highly diversified structure, capable of manufac- turing a wide variety of consumer and capital goods. Basic infrastructure -- irrigation, railways, telecommunications, the power grid, roads and ports -- is extensive compared to many countries, although there is considerable need for additional capacity as well as improvement in the utilization of existing capacity. India is also well-endowed with human resources and with institu- tional infrastructure for development. Finally, India has an extensive natural resource base in terms of land, water, and minerals (primarily coal and ferrous ores, but also gas and oil). With good economic policies and sufficient access to foreign savings, India has the capability for managing these considerable resources to accelerate its long-term growth. 12. A new Sixth Five-Year Plan (1980-85) was approved in February 1981. The new Plan continues to assign priority to agriculture and power. Further- more, the Plan reflects the Government's efforts to bring about the necessary adjustments in the economy by emphasizing several priority areas. These include: (i) expansion of exports and an investment program to support increased production to replace imports of goods such as fertilizer, cement and steel which India produces competitively; (ii) an investment program and policy framework for more efficient development and use of energy resour- ces; (iii) removal of bottlenecks in infrastructure and related constraints on production of basic industrial inputs; and (iv) continuing emphasis on the development of agriculture. 13. The higher capital formation rates of the past few years augur well for future income growth. However, there are signs that the past programs and policies have led to relatively low growth in certain crucial sectors, namely power, coal, transport services, steel and cement. Potential output growth in sectors which have benefitted from large investments in the recent  -5- past may not materialize unless these input bottlenecks are alleviated. In the case of coal, steel and cement, domestic production appears to be clearly justified on grounds of comparative advantage, indicating an a priori case for policies to promote further investment. In 1980/81 these commodities were not imported in sufficient amounts to eliminate the shortages; increased short-term reliance on imports may be necessary to alleviate slowdowns and dislocation in user industries. In the case of sectors in which there is little scope to import the final product -- power and transportation -- the planning of capacity expansion becomes even more crucial. Although there is scope for improvement in the short-run performance of these sectors, major investments in balancing and modernization programs as well as in new capacity are essential for adequate growth in the medium term. 14. Despite the relatively large investment programs for the develop- ment of domestic energy resources such as coal and hydroelectricity, and the recent development of offshore petroleum resources, India has not been able to eliminate the gap between its total energy demand and domestic production. During the past year, India continued to face power and coal shortages, but the situation improved substantially during the year so that power generation in June 1981 was around 20% higher than a year earlier. India is entering the Sixth Plan period with an ambitious energy production program backed by substantial financial commitment. In the oil sector, GOI is now accelerating its oil exploration capabilities and is opening up prospective areas for exploration by foreign firms; Prices of petroleum products were raised substantially in 1980 and again in July 1981 to bring domestic prices into line with world market prices, to raise resources for further oil and gas development and to encourage efficient use of energy. India is now committed to an expanded power program that emphasizes exploitation of its large hydro potential and development of its transmission and distribution system. In the coal sector, a policy decision in favor of mechanization has been made in order to achieve more rapid growth of coal production. 15. Agricultural policies, development programs and secular trends all seem favorable for sustaining the past agricultural growth during the 1980s. India ended 1980 with grain stocks of about 12 million tons, without having imported foodgrains during the year. This reflects the trends of the last decade which point to an improvement in foodgrain availability in the economy. Growing output, combined with the projected fall in the population growth rate, suggest favorable long-run prospects for foodgrain supply and demand balances. An occasional need to import grains, particularly wheat, could arise, but if the efforts to develop agriculture over the past decade are sustained and intensified, as suggested in the new Plan, persistent shortage seems unlikely. This development could give rise to a range of policy options including a slowly falling real price of foodgrains to increase the affordability of foodgrains to low-income families, foodgrain exports, and diversification to the production of other, higher-value crops. 16. Foreign exchange reserves are providing a cushion that helps the Government of India in short-term supply management. In March 1981, however, gross reserves were $320 million lower than the level of a year earlier and, in terms of import coverage, fell below the six-month level for the first time since 1977. A much larger decline in the reserve level would have been necessary in 1980/81 had IMF Trust Fund and Compensatory Financing Facilities, amounting to over US$1 billion, not been available. India's  -6- reserves provide some limited scope for narrowing the financing gap over the next few years, but successful management of the balance of payments will depend mainly on improved export performance, on import replacement, on the maintenance of aid flows and workers' remittances, and on a moderation in price increases for oil imports. While India's current account balance of payments deficits are not expected to be large relative to the size of the economy (e.g., on the order of two percent of GDP), the absolute amounts are large and will necessitate external borrowing beyond levels expected to be available from normal concessional sources. Accordingly, India has recently begun to undertake substantial borrowings in the financial markets to help finance selected major investment projects. 17. India's medium-term development prospects are mixed. Considerable progress continues to be made, particularly in agriculture, but the economy faces a period of difficult adjustments in the coming years. Investments required to relieve short-term supply constraints must compete with longer-term programs to accelerate growth and to develop India's considerable physical and human resources. The balancing of these objectives will place a difficult burden on those implementing India's Sixth Five-Year Plan. The primary focus must be on the implementation of appropriate domestic adjust- ment policies, although the aid community can and should play an important role in ensuring that India's efforts do not fail due to inadequate foreign resources. 18. Preliminary results from the March 1, 1981 Census, combined with 1971 Census figures adjusted for under-enumeration, suggest that the popula- tion growth rate declined from 2.3% p.a. in the late 1960s to about 2% at present. The rate of increase of population is expected to continue falling to around 1.8% by the first half of the 1990s. While the growth rate appears to be declining slowly, the 1981 Census population estimate was substantially higher than previous Government projections. The 1981 Census data are still incomplete but preliminary reports indicate that the rise in life expectancy was more than anticipated, suggesting that, on average, Indians can expect to live five years longer than they did a decade ago. This no doubt reflects improved availability of food and health services. This implies, however, an even greater need to reduce the birth rate to bring about the needed reduc- tion in the rate of growth of population. The Census results, therefore, re-emphasize the need for continuing efforts to strengthen a broad range of family planning activities to develop a wider clientele and to provide that clientele with a professional, technically competent advisory service which can provide the full variety of available birth prevention methods. The new Plan continues the high priority given to these efforts in earlier Plans. The ambition of its targets - implying a rise in the proportion of protected couples in the reproductive age group from its present estimated level of about 23% to over 35% by 1984/85 - seems fully justified. Such targets imply a serious long term commitment to moderating the population growth rate through an improved family planning program. 19. Reduction of poverty remains the central goal of Indian economic growth. More than one-third of the world's poor live in India, and more than 80% of the Indian poor belong to the rural households of landless laborers and small farmers. About 51% of the rural population and 38% of the urban population subsist below the poverty line (estimated at about US$114 and US$132 per capita per year for rural and urban areas, respectively).  -7- Improvements in the living standards of the poor will depend to a large extent on the overall growth of the economy; the circumstances require increases in agricultural production and employment, in non-farm rural employment, and also in employment opportunities in urban areas. These developments will have to stem in large part from market forces which, however, must be encouraged and reinforced by appropriate Government policies and the strengthening of basic services and infrastructure. The declining trend in real foodgrain prices between 1970 and 1979 reflects such develop- ments. There is also a role for direct Government action in faster implemen- tation of land reform (though the scope for significant reduction in poverty through land redistribution is quite limited in India), in increasing the supply of credit available to small farmers and rural artisans, and finally in broadening the provision of those services which enhance the human capital of the poor and improve living standards. Many of the latter are elements of the Minimum Needs Program, which has been an integral part of Indian planning for the past decade. Progress has been slow but steady in the expansion of primary education, the extension of rural health facilities and the provision of secure village water supplies. Innovations such as the community health volunteer program and the national adult literacy campaign provide encourag- ing evidence that well-targetted, relatively low-cost programs can lead to enhanced prospects for India's poor. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN INDIA 20. Since 1949, the Bank Group has made 61 loans and 141 development credits to India totalling US$2,833 million and US$9,323 million (both net of cancellation), respectively. Of these amounts, US$1,168 million had been repaid, and US$4,494 million was still undisbursed as of June 30, 1981. Bank Group disbursements to India in fiscal year 1981 totalled US$962 million, representing an increase of about 32% over the previous year. Annex II contains a summary statement of disbursements as of June 30, 1981, and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 21. Since 1959, IFC has made 24 commitments in India totalling US$148.7 million, of which US$22.2 million has been repaid, US$27.7 million sold and US$7.5 million cancelled. Of the balance of US$91.3 million, US$82.3 million represents loans and US$9.0 million equity. A summary statement of IFC operations as of June 30, 1981, is also included in Annex II (page 4). 22. In recent years, Bank Group lending has emphasized agriculture. The Bank Group has been particularly active in supporting minor irrigation and other on-farm investments through agricultural credit operations and in providing direct support to major and medium irrigation. Marketing, seed development, agricultural extension, dairying, and forestry are other agricultural activities supported by the Bank Group. Also, the Bank Group has been active in financing the expansion of output in the fertilizer sector and, through its sizeable assistance to development finance institutions, in a wide range of geographically scattered medium- and small-scale industrial enterprises. The Bank Group has also been active in supporting infrastruc- ture development for power, telecommunications, and railways. Family plan- ning, water supply development, urban investments and the development of oil and natural gas have also received Bank Group support in recent years.  -8- 23. The direction of assistance under the Bank/IDA program has been consistent with India's needs and the Government's priorities. The emphasis of the program on agriculture, power, water supply and other infrastructure sectors remains highly relevant. Projects designed to foster agricultural production through the provision of essential inputs, particularly water and credit for on-farm investments, will continue to receive emphasis. Improved water management and intensification and streamlining of extension systems form an important institution-building aspect of the Bank Group's program for the next several years. Special emphasis will be given to projects benefitting small farmers. The Bank Group's continuing role in the fer- tilizer sector assists India in the more efficient provision of another key input in the agricultural growth process. Projects supporting water supply, sewerage, urban development and investments in the petroleum sector also form an integral part of the Bank's lending strategy to India for the next several years. Lending in support of infrastructure and industrial investments will focus on those subsectors which have recently emerged as key constraints on India's overall growth, primarily power and transportation. 24. The need for a substantial net transfer of external resources in support of the development of India's economy has been a recurrent theme of Bank economic reports and of the discussions within the India Consortium. Thanks in part to the response of the aid community, India successfully adjusted to the changed world price situation of the mid-1970s. However, there is now a need for increased foreign assistance to adjust to an even greater deterioration in balance of payments anticipated during the 1980s by augmenting domestic resources and stimulating investment. As in the past, Bank Group assistance for projects in India should aim to include the financ- ing of local expenditures. India imports relatively few capital goods because of the capacity and competitiveness of the domestic capital goods industry. Consequently, the foreign exchange component tends to be small in most projects. This is particularly the case in such high-priority sec- tors as agriculture, irrigation, and water supply. 25. India's poverty and needs are such that whenever possible, external capital requirements should be provided on concessionary terms. Accordingly, the bulk of the Bank Group assistance to India has been, and should continue to be, provided from IDA. However, the amount of IDA funds that can reasonably be allocated to India remains small in relation to India's needs for external support. Therefore, India should be eligible and regarded as creditworthy for some supplemental Bank lending. The ratio of India's debt service to the level of exports was about 10% in 1980/81 and is projected to remain below 20% through 1995/96. As of June 30, 1981, outstanding loans to India held by the Bank totalled US$1,742 million, of which US$874 million remain to be disbursed, leaving a net amount outstanding of US$868 million. 26. Of the external assistance received by India, the proportion con- tributed by the Bank Group has grown significantly. In 1969/70, the Bank Group accounted for 34% of total commitments, 13% of gross disbursements, and 12% of net disbursements as compared with 49%, 36% and 44%, respectively, in 1980/81. On March 31, 1981, India's outstanding and disbursed external public debt was about US$17 billion, of which the Bank Group's share was US$6.2 billion or 36% (IDA's US$5.3 billion and IBRD's US$0.9 billion). Because Bank Group assistance to India is predominantly in the form of IDA credits, debt service to the Bank Group will rise slowly. In 1980/81, about 18.0% of India's total debt service payments were to the Bank Group.  -9-- PART III - FORESTRY IN INDIA AND WEST BENGAL Forestry in India 27. India's forest lands are substantial but the demands placed on them are great. About 23% of the total land area, or 75 million hectares, is classified as forest. Annual domestic roundwood requirements by the year 2000 are projected to be about 290 iillion m3 (fuelwood 225 million m and industrial roundwood 65 million m ). Continuation of existing plantation programs (about 20,000 ha Innually) should fulfill the demand for industrial hardwood (52 millioln m per year) and about half that for coniferous roundwood (13 million m per year total) dut fuelwood is expected to remain in short supply. If 150 million m of fuelwood con- tinues to be supplied annually from existing resources, provision would have to be made for an additional 75 million m3 by the year 2000 if total demand is to be met. Limited availability of land and financial resources precludes the annual planting program of approximately 450,000 ha that this would require; in the coming decade, plantings of 225,000 ha annually are a more realistic target. 28. India's strategy for forestry development reflects the need both to develop production forestry programs to supply the growing demand of the domestic wood products industry and to develop social forestry (also referred to as community forestry) programs to supply fuelwood, fodder, small timber and minor forest produce to the rural population. In order to carry out the required programs, the National Commission on Agriculture recommended that each State reorganize its Forest Department into two separate wings, one to supervise traditional production forestry and wildlife activities, and the other to develop community forests. The Forest Departments of Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh were the first to create community forestry wings. Other States are following suit as their com- munity forestry programs grow. The State of West Bengal 29. The State of West Bengal, with an area of 88,000 km2, has a population of 54 million (1981), of which 75% live in rural areas. Until the 1970's, the State had the highest level of industrial development and per capita income in India; at present, the State has the second largest industrial base in the country. Despite this industrial orientation, which is concentrated in the Calcutta area, agriculture plays a predominant role in the State's economy, accounting for 40% of its income and providing 60% of its employment. Forests constitute only 13.5% of the land area (1.18 million ha of a total area of 8.78 million ha) and are distributed unevenly over the State. Population density averages 614 persons per km2, second only to the State of Kerala. Slightly more than  -10- 25% of the population belongs to the traditionally disadvantaged groups: scheduled castes (19.9%) and scheduled tribes (5.9%). The rural popula- tion, more than half of which was below the rural poverty line (US$114 per person per year) in 1977/78, is spread over nearly 42,000 villages, each with an average population of about 900. Population pressures and the increase in livestock (currently estimated at 19 million) have neces- sitated a continual search for food, fuel and fodder resulting in indis- criminate tree-cutting and increasing erosion. The southern and western parts of the State now have large tracts of barren wastelands and the northern forested areas are increasingly depredated. 30. Commercial energy (coal, electricity, oil) meets about 20% of West Bengal's total energy demand, estimated at ten million tons per year (tpy) of fuelwood equivalent (FWE). Fuelwood and charcoal (55%), dung cake (25%) and crop waste (20%) account for the remaining 80% of fuel requirements. Rural electrification has reached 35% of rural villages in the State but at present is rarely used for cooking. It is estimated that in rural areas 80% of the domestic fuel is collected by women and children who must often spend half their day foraging. In larger settlements, fuelwood is a traded commodity with prices ranging from Rs 120-180 per ton. Cow dung costs about Rs 120 per ton in rural areas, though it is generally sold as dung cake at Rs 0.10 each or at Rs 1.75 per cubic foot. The cost of using dung as fuel instead of as organic manure is high. Assuming that an application of 5 tons per ha increases yields of foodgrains by 300 kg per ha, the 4.8 million tpy (2.0 million tons of FWE) currently burnt annually in West Bengal amounts to more than 288,000 tons of foodgrain production foregone. 31. The West Bengal Panchayat Act of 1973 introduced a three-tier system of panchayats (elected governing bodies) in the State, at the village, block (sub-district), and district level, which have undertaken a wide range of rural development activities including irrigation, rural works, conservation and cooperative farming, food-for-work and flood reconstruction programs. A number of social forestry programs have been started by the panchayats, including the distribution of free seedlings, tree planting competitions and training camps to motivate and educate local communities. Forestry in West Bengal 32. The natural forests of West Bengal may be grouped into seven major types ranging from alpine forests in the Himalayas to mangrove forests in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta. In recent years they have produced annually an average of 150,000 m3 of timber, 1 million tons of fuelwood, 73,000 tons of bamboo (a third of which was trade quality) and 22,000 tons of fodder grass, in addition to a wide variety of other minor forest products such as gums, dried leaves, edible flowers, fruits and  -1 1- oilseeds. The forests support a number of industries: approximately 800 sawmills, 3 papermills, 760 tanneries, 34 plywood factories, 4 match factories and numerous furniture workshops. They provide considerable benefits to marginal farmers and landless laborers in the form of free grazing, fuelwood, fruit, flowers, honey and poles, as well as bamboo (either free or at subsidized rates) for cottage industries, and tradi- tionally have been regarded as an apparently inexhaustible supply of free produce. The unfettered demands of local people for forest products for their daily needs and for grazing lands for their livestock are resulting in the serious depletion of forest lands. Shortages of primary forest products -- especially fuelwood, building poles and fodder -- are severe and heightened by the growth in population. Productivity of much of the forest estate is low, the result not only of aridity and low soil fer- tility but also of past degradation through illegal felling, overgrazing, burning and a lack of understanding of forest conservation. The nationalization of private forests in 1953 brought all forests under State control. Over the past two decades, the West Bengal Forestry Department (WBFD), which manages the State's forests, has expended considerable effort to improve productivity by forest rehabilitation, improved manage- ment and greater control of illegal degradation. Although these efforts are helping to alleviate the situation, the magnitude of the problem and the lopsided geographical distribution of existing forest resources are such that the long-term solution lies in the afforestation of new areas such as road, rail and canal reserves, and other wastelands. 33. WBFD is headed by a Chief Conservator of Forests (CCF) who is also the Chief Wildlife Warden. He is presently supported by one Addi- tional CCF,one Assistant CCF and five Conservators of Forest (CF) in charge of Soil Conservation, Planning, Research and Development, Wildlife and Social Forestry. (With the implementation of this project, the Social Forestry circle is being expanded into a Social Forestry Wing (SFW) headed by a second Additional CCF.) At field level there are now three opera- tional circles, each staffed by a CF and each encompassing 4-6 divisions (16 in all). Each division has 4-12 range offices headed by a Forest Ranger who is responsible for all technical matters associated with the establishment of plantations. Each Ranger covers 3-4 beats, each staffed by a Forester who is responsible for the establishment of plantations within his beat and the supervision of 3-4 Forest Guards employed to protect the forests. 34. There are three levels of formal forestry training. Forest Officers (professionals who work at the district level) are science graduates who take a two-year course at an All-India Forestry College operated by the Central Government. Range Officers are science graduates or Foresters who train for two years at the GOI Forest Rangers College. Foresters and Deputy Rangers are Forest Guards who train for one year at the West Bengal Forest School. There are long waiting lists at both the  -1 2- Forestry College and the Forest School and there is currently no training school for Forest Guards, who have a secondary school education. 35. The State has been active in the improvement of forest reserves through the establishment of man-made forests which totalled 190,000 ha of plantations by the end of 1980. Working through local panchayats, WBFD has also engaged in limited social forestry programs, assisting in tree planting, establishing of 1,200 ha of communal plantations and distribut- ing 5 million seedlings for individual planting in the 1976-80 period. In 1974, the West Bengal Forest Development Corporation was established to manage State hill forests and State-owned forest industries. Bank Group Role in the Sector 36. In early 1978, in recognition of the need to expand social forestry activities, GOI and the Bank Group agreed to examine the pos- sibilities of developing projects in Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh. The Uttar Pradesh Project was appraised in November 1978 and a credit for US$23 million approved in June 1979; the Gujarat Project was appraised in March 1979 and a credit of US$37 million approved in December 1979. Both projects are making good progress, though implementation of village wood- lot schemes has been slower than expected. Private planting during 1980 was almost double project targets, however. 37. The Madhya Pradesh Forestry Technical Assistance Project (Cr. 609-IN; February 26, 1976) is the initial phase of a project aimed at the establishment of a forest-based industry in Bastar District. The feasibility study, financed under the Credit and completed in November 1980, recommended the establishment of an integrated industrial complex including a sawmill and a pulp mill. GOI is currently reviewing the proposals and may propose a project for Bank Group financing. The Kandi Watershed and Area Development Project (Ln. 1897-IN, September 12, 1980), involves reforestation and pasture development over some 18,000 ha of Punjab's Siwalik Hills. PART IV - THE PROJECT 38. The project was prepared by the Government of West Bengal. It was appraised in January/February 1981. Negotiations were held in Washington, D.C. in August 1981. The Governments of India and West Bengal were represented by a delegation coordinated by Mr. C. Ranga Rao, Direc- tor, Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, GOI. The Staff Appraisal Report (No. 3434-IN) is being distributed separately to the Executive Directors. A Supplementary Data Sheet is attached as Annex III.  -13- Project Description 39. The project's primary objective would be to increase the supply of fuelwood for domestic consumption in rural areas through the estab- lishment of 93,000 ha of plantations throughout the State. Secondary objectives would be to provide poles, bamboo, small timber, fodder grass, fruits, oilseeds and other minor forest products, and to introduce improved stoves as a fuelwood conservation measure. In order to carry out this program, the project would provide for the establishment of a Social Forestry Wing in the West Bengal Forest Department, as well as training facilities, vehicles, housing and equipment for SFW staff. Over a six-year period the project would: (a) establish 6,000 ha of village woodlots, 20,000 ha of strip plantings along roads, canals and railroads, and 52,000 ha of farm forestry on private (42,000 ha) and public (10,000 ha) wastelands; (b) reforest 15,000 ha of degraded forests; (c) develop nurseries to provide planting stock; (d) construct seed storage godowns; (e) introduce about 10,000 energy-efficient stoves; (f) construct a Forest Guard School and expand the existing West Bengal Forest School; (g) establish a SFW with emphasis on its extension, public rela- tions, research and monitoring and evaluation activities; and (h) provide housing, vehicles, equipment and training to support project staff. 40. Village Woodlots (6,000 ha). Several schemes involving different levels of community participation would be introduced on State land leased to village panchayats. In scheme one (approximately 2,500 ha), SFW would plant and maintain, and the local panchayat would protect and manage, a one-ha demonstration plantation in each participating village. After two years, if the village panchayat had successfully protected and managed its plantation, it could opt for either scheme two or scheme three. In scheme two (approximately 1,750 ha), the village panchayats would receive from SFW an interest-free loan of Rs 2,000 per ha, for a maximum of two ha, to cover the cost of planting, maintaining and protecting the planta- tion. SFW would recover its loan from the sale of harvestable produce, estimated to occur seven years after planting. In scheme three (1,750 ha), SFW would establish, maintain and protect a maximum of two ha  -14- per village and recover all its direct costs after sale of the first or second harvest. SFW would assist village panchayats in locating waste- lands which could be used as demonstration plots, in determining the number and types of species to be planted, in conducting a community education program to publicize the benefits of social forestry in general and of the village woodlot program in particular, and in deciding whether to opt for scheme two or three after the successful completion of scheme one. In all three schemes, village panchayats would not be charged for the seedlings used and would receive all forest produce after SFW recovers its direct costs in schemes two and three. Direct costs of SFW are expected to be recovered from the schemes two and three within the first two years of harvest (which are the seventh and eighth years after the establishment). 41. Strip Plantations (20,000 ha). SFW would assume full respon- sibility for establishing plantations alongside roads, canals and railways and would work with the local panchayats as they gradually assume respon- sibility for managing the plantations. Villagers who live adjacent to strip plantations would be allowed to collect grass, fodder, fallen wood and other minor produce from these areas in return for cooperating with SFW staff in protecting these plantations. At year eight, SFW would recover its direct costs from the sale of forest produce, and the cash balance would be used to establish additional strip plantations. There- after, the village panchayat would assume responsibility for managing the plantation and for distributing its produce. 42. Farm Forestry (52,000 ha). Three schemes involving different levels of farmer participation would be introduced on either private or State-leased waste lands. In scheme one (22,000 ha), marginal farmers with small holdings (less than 2 ha) would be given free seedlings to plant trees on wastelands and a financial subsidy to cover part of the farmer's labor costs. Farmers receiving at least 50 and no more than 750 seedlings would qualify for a cash payment of 40 paise per seedling (equiv- alent to Rs 300 for 750 seedlings or 0.5 ha of private plantation) which would be paid in three yearly installments. Second and third year pay- ments would be made only for trees that had survived. In scheme two (10,000 ha), the Land Reform Commissioner, in accordance with established procedures for land distribution, would apportion parcels of land to landless farm laborers who would benefit from free seedling distribution and a cash incentive similar to scheme one. In scheme three (20,000 ha), SFW would distribute 50 million free seedlings to farmers for private planting. 43. Reforestation of Degraded State-Owned Forests (15,000 ha). Casual labor would be employed by SFW to establish and maintain plantations on degraded State forest reserves. Nearby villagers would be allowed to collect 25% of the harvestable produce free of cost. The collection of the produce would be organized by the WBFD.  -1 5- 44. Plantation Design. Twelve plantation models have been developed to meet different objectives and site conditions. Planting targets would be agreed at State and local levels. A wide variety of species would be planted depending on local needs, plantation objectives and ecological conditions. Seventy-five to ninety percent of the trees planted would produce fuelwood or poles. Seed godowns and permanent and temporary nurseries would be established to supplement those already in existence. Provision would be made for protecting the plantations from insects, grazing and fire, for fertilizing the seedlings to ensure high survival and growth rates, and for weeding and other tending operations. 45. Project Implementation. The project would establish a Social Forestry Wing (SFW) in West Bengal Forest Department (WBFD). An Addi- tional Chief Conservator of Forests has been appointed to head SFW, he would be directly responsible to the CCF for all social forest activities. Two forestry circles would be created to handle its social forestry works. One circle would be established not later than December 31, 1981 and the other not later than December 31, 1983 (Section 2.09 of the Project Agree- ment). Some staff would be transferred to SFW from other positions within WBFD. New staff would consist primarily of (i) 360 Forest Extension Workers (FEW) who would be based at the block level and make regular and frequent field visits to supervise the plantation programs, and (ii) 1,000 village motivators who would be based at the village level and whose main function would be to promote the farm forestry scheme, but who would also carry out simple administrative activities and provide a link between the village and the FEW. In addition, two special support units, one for public relations and the other for monitoring and evaluation, would also be established. The Public Relations Unit would be headed by a Chief Publicity Officer and each Division would have a Divisional Public Rela- tions Officer to coordinate publicity and dissemination of information. The Monitoring and Evaluation Unit, headed by a Deputy Conservator of Forests and supported by statistical staff and enumerators, would monitor project targets and seedling survival rates, assess villagers' acceptance of social forestry programs, conduct project evaluations and prepare bi-annual progress reports. The Chief Publicity Officer and the Deputy Conservator of Forests would be appointed not later than December 31, 1981 (Section 2.07 of the Project Agreement). A mid-term evaluation of the project, with particular regard to the impact of farm forestry and the implementation of the village woodlots and strip plantation schemes, would be submitted to the Association by March 31, 1984 (Section 2.04(c) of the Project Agreement). Locally-recruited consultants would advise GOWB on survey designs and monitoring systems, and on communications and exten- sion. (Section 2.08 of the Project Agreement). 46. The research program would be under the direction of the CF and focus on both technical and socio-economic studies. By December 31, 1981, the project would employ a stove technology consultant to design a program  -16- of introducing energy-efficient stoves to villagers (Section 2.08(i) of the Project Agreement). The stove technology exists in India but it needs to be adapted to local needs. The project would provide for the construc- tion of 10,000 improved stoves to be demonstrated in at least 2,000 vil- lages over the project period. 47. Coordination of social forestry activities with other government programs at district and State levels would be achieved through the estab- lishment of District Committees and of a State Policy Committee which would also determine overall State social forestry policy. These Commit- tees would be established by April 30, 1982 (Section 2.11 of the Project Agreement). 48. Field level staff would be expected to live near their work and be sufficiently mobile to function effectively. Although GOWB housing policy encourages the use of rented accommodations, the limited rental housing in rural areas often makes that impossible. Consequently the project would construct 220 housing units for field personnel and also provide a limited number of vehicles (cars, vans and motorcycles). GOWB would ensure additional housing or rent allowances as necessary (Section 2.10 of the Project Agreement). 49. Training. The need to provide a Forest Guard Training School becomes more acute as WBFD expands its social forestry program and the traditional duties of forest guards change. The project would provide for the construction and equipping of the school, which would accommodate 60 students per session for a five-month certification course, and the run- ning costs for five years. The project would also provide for the expan- sion of the West Bengal Forest School through the construction of a hostel for an additional 40 students and staff quarters for additional teaching staff, and for the construction of additional training facilities for FEW. FEW would be trained in basic forestry by WBFD instructors, and in exten- sion techniques by Agricultural Department staff. Training of FEW would last eight weeks and would be supplemented by additional one-day monthly orientation sessions. Three weeks of training would be given motivators at the divisional level and supplemented by one-day monthly orientation sessions. The project would also provide fourteen 8-week overseas fellow- ships for senior SFW staff in management and forestry extension. In addition, a local consultant in communication and extension, to be appointed by December 31, 1981, would help design an extension program and organize short training courses for senior SFW staff (Section 2.08 (ii) of the Project Agreement). Proj ct Costs and Financing 50. The total estimated cost of the proposed project is US$43.5 million, of which US$1.3 million are duties and taxes and US$2.3 million  -17- are foreign exchange expenditures. Physical contingencies of 5% for nurseries and plantings, and 10% for housing, research and seed testing have been applied; price contingencies are calculated at 15% for 1980/81, 9.0% for 1981/82, 8.5% for 1982/83, 7.5% for 1983/84 to 1985/86 and 6% thereafter. The major cost components, net of contingencies, are plant- ings (US$22.3 million), incremental staff (US$5.1 million), incremental operating costs (US$1.7 million), buildings and housing (US$1.5 million), and vehicles and equipment (US$0.8 million). 51. The proposed IDA credit of US$29 million would finance about 69% of total project cost excluding duties and taxes. The balance of the project cost would be borne by GOI and GOWB. In order to ensure an early project start, retroactive financing, estimated at US$1 million, would be provided for expenditures after January 1, 1981. These expenditures, which relate primarily to the 1981 planting season which starts in July, would be for nurseries, advance work on land preparation and plantation protection, and necessary staff and equipment. Procurement and Disbursements 52. Direct plantation works (US$22.3 million), including nursery expenditures and farra forestry, would be scattered over a wide area and carried out over different periods of time, making contracts following competitive bidding impractical. Nursery works, including the production of seedlings, would be carried out by force account of SFW. Land prepara- tion, planting and maintenance of village plantations would also be car- ried out by SFW with varying degrees of participation by local panchayats. Materials such as fencing wire, tools and fertilizers would be procured under local competitive bidding (LCB) in accordance with established local procedures that are satisfactory to IDA. Contracts for civil works (US$1.5 million) would be small and widely dispersed in time and place and therefore not suitable for international competitive bidding (ICB); they would be let following LCB or be carried out by force account in accord- ance with GOWB procedures that are satisfactory to IDA. Design and super- vision of housing and building construction would be carried out by WBFD or the Public Works Department. Vehicles (US$0.3 million) would be pur- chased over three years; the importance of adequate maintenance and availability of spare parts would necessitate the purchase of locally-made vehicles of types already used by government departments. Thus, procure- ment would be by LCB under existing government procedures which are acceptable to IDA. Imported research equipment would be required in small lots and would not, therefore, be suitable for procurement under ICB procedures. These items and other miscellaneous equipment (totalling US$0.5 million) would be bulked wherever possible and procured through LCB unless valued at less than US$20,000 when they would be purchased by prudent shopping through trade channels. Stoves would be built departmen- tally by SFW.  -18- 53. The proceeds of the credit would be disbursed as follows: 100% against training costs and consultant services, and against stove improve- ment; 100% against foreign expenditures and 70% against local expenditures for equipment and vehicles; 80% against monitoring and evaluation costs; 70% against civil works, planting expenditures, operating costs and local expenditures for equipment and vehicles; and 55% against staff salaries. Disbursements for all force account work, salaries, local training, civil works contracts less than Rs 300,000 and other procurement involving expenditures of less than Rs 150,000 each for locally-procured vehicles and equipment would be made against statements of expenditure. These certificates of expenditure would be audited annually and the audit report submitted to IDA. Supporting documentation for these expenditures would be retained by the State Government for inspection in the course of project review missions. Disbursements against expenditures for all other items would be fully documented. 54. Benefits and Risks. The increase in forest produce expected under the project would benefit a large portion of the State's population. Enhanced employment opportunities, cash incentives for private planting and the right to gather free fodder, fruit and other minor produce would favor the rural poor in particular. From project year 12, the average annual production of fuelwood from all project plantations would be about 325,000 tons. This would be sufficient to satisfy the needs of about 1.63 million people at the current annual consumption level of 160 kg of fuel- wood per person. Fruit production would be sufficient to provide 10 kg annually for about seven million people. The increase in fuelwood produc- tion would be equivalent to an annual saving of 600,000 tons of dung cake which could be utilized as an organic manure to increase agricultural production. This would result in an annual increase of 36,000 tons of foodgrains. The use of 10,000 improved stoves would result in savings of at least 5,000 tons of fuelwood annually. 55. Over the project period, 93,000 ha of idle or underutilized land would be brought into productive use. The project would generate about 15 million work days, equivalent to 9,000 full-time jobs for six years. In practice, most project work would be seasonal, benefitting mainly the unemployed who are available for short-term work. The major environmental impact of project plantations is expected to be on soil conservation, improvement to micro-climates and, to some extent, the restoration of soil fertility. 56. The project's quantifiable benefits are the increases in the production of fuelwood, fodder, timber, bamboo, fruits and other minor forest produce. Over a thirty-year period, the overall rate of return for the project would be about 28%. 57. The project faces no major risk in terms of an unsatisfactory rate of return since it could withstand improbable adverse affects such as cost  -19- increases of 100% and price or production declines of 50% and still show a favorable rate of return. There is a potential risk that free distribu- tion of seedlings might lead to some waste; currently available statistics regarding their survival rate are inadequate. For this reason, MEU would monitor the actual survival rate and would study the overall impact of free distribution of seedlings. There is a risk that village panchayats may not be sufficiently well motivated or organized to manage village woodlots and that the improved stoves may not be adequately received. These risks would be minimized through the project's programs of educa- tion, training, extension work and information dissemination. Overall project risks are low. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 58. The draft Development Credit Agreement between India and the Association, the draft Project Agreement between the Association and the State of West Bengal, and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section l(d) of the Articles of Agreement are being dis- tributed to the Executive Directors separately. 59. Special conditions of the Project are listed in Section III of Annex III. 60. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 61. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed credit. A.W. Clausen President September 15, 1981   ANNEX I Page 1 of 5 TABLE 3A INDIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET INDIA REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVRA0ES LAND AREA (THOUSAND SQ. KM.) MOST RECENT ESTIHATE- TOTAL 3287.6 MOST RECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCOME AGRICULTURAL 1809.5 1960 7b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b ASIA & PACIFIC ASIA & PACIFIC GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 60.0 100.0 190.0 232.3 1136.1 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 111.1 152.5 241.8 499.4 1150.6 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, FIID-YEAR (THOUS.) 434850.0 547569.0 659217.0 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OP TOTAL) 17.9 19.7 22.0 17.3 40.8 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 974.7 STATIONARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) 1621.0 YEAR STATIONARY POPULATION 1S REACHED 2115 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. KM. 132.3 166.6 200.5 153.6 373.1 PER SQ. KM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 246.7 308.0 355.8 360.3 2382.8 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 40.1 42.4 41.1 37.4 39.8 15-64 YRS. 56.8 54.7 56.0 59.2 56.7 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.5 3.5 POPULATION CROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 1.8 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.3 URBAN 2.5 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.8 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 44.2 40.3 34.0 27.7 29.7 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 22.7 17.4 13.5 10.2 7.5 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.1 2.8 2.3 2.5 1.9 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) 64.0 3782.0 5619.0 USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. 12.0 22.6 20.4 44.1 FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 98.0 102.0 93.0 107.1 123.7 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF :'EQUIREMENTS) 93.0 92.0 91.0 98.6 112.6 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 52.0 51.0 50.0 56.9 62.5 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 17.0 15.0 13.0 14.2 19.7 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 27.1 20.4 14.8 14.6 4.8 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 42.2 47.5 51.9 57.7 64.0 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) .. 134.0 125.0 89.1 50.2 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 17.0 33.0 30.1 45.9 URBAN .. 60.0 83.0 65.8 68.0 RURAL .. 6.0 20.0 20.1 34.4 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT- OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 18.0 20.0 17.6 53.4 URBAN .. 85.0 87.0 71.0 71.0 RURAL .. 1.0 2.0 4.8 42.4 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 4850.4/c 4889.0 3617.4 3857.7 4428.7 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 963O.d7- 8296.5 6429.4 6411.8 2229.7 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 2149.0/d 1612.9 1311.1 1132.8 588.5 URBAN .. .. 363.5 322.3 579.6 RURAL .. .. 10429.1 5600.5 1138.5 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. .. HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL 5.2 5.6 5.2 URBAN 5.2 5.6 4.8 RURAL 5.2 5.6 5.3 AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL 2.6 2.8 URBAN 2.6 2.8 RURAL 2.6 2.8 ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. ..  ANNEX I Page 2 of 5 TABLE 3A INDIA - TOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET INDIA REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVE AGES - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE)- MOST RECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE lb ASIA & PACIFIC ASIA & PACIFIC EDUCATIUN ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 61.0 73.0 79.0 85.9 99.8 MALE 80.0 90.0 94.0 94.4 100.6 FDIALE 40.0 56.0 63.0 64.5 98.8 SECONDARY: TOTAL 20.0 26.0 28.0 38.0/aa 53.5 MALE 30.0 36.0 37.0 34.67;i;i 58.4 FEMALE 10.0 15.0 18.0 18.0/1aa 48.6 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (I OF SECONDARY) 8.0 1.0 1.0 3.8 21.1 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY 29.0 41.0 41.0 32.8 34.2 SECONDARY 16.0 21.0 .. 19.9 31.7 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 28.0 33.4 36.0 52.8 86.5 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.7 12.7 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 4.9 21.5 32.5 35.3 174.1 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.7 50.6 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 11.0 16.0 16.9 14.6 106.8 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA 4.0 6.3 3.8 3.4 4.3 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 189761.4 220670.5 256699.4 FEtALE (PERCENT) 31.2 32.4 31.9 29.3 37.4 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 74.0 74.0 71.0 69.8 50.2 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 11.0 11.0 11.0 14.1 21.9 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 43.6 40.3 38.9 39.7 40.2 MALE 58.0 52.6 51.3 51.5 49.8 FEMALE 28.2 27.1 25.7 23.3 31.1 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 26.7 26.3/e 22.2 HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OP HOUSEHOLDS 51.7 48.9/e 49.4 LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 4.1 6.77T 7.0 LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 13.6 17.27_ 16.2 POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 132.0 134.1 248.6 RURAL .. .. 114.0 111.6 193.7 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. .. 249.8 RURAL .. .. .. .. 234.3 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. 40.3 41.7 21.2 RURAL .. .. 50.7 51.7 32.2 Not available Not applicable. NOTES /a The group averages for each indicator are population-weighted arithmetic means. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /aa China included in total only. /b Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1976 and 1979. /c 1962; /d 1958; /e 1964-65. May, 1981  ANNEX I Page 3 of 5 OPtItfTIONOOFi S~CIAL. ITNIOCATORIS Ntoer: Although cIt data arc I Ir'ultor sourCe" gam ll "Iodgol the most -tshottto ndrlale tsoudas h oe that they ney rotb helote- racinoally .d_patoIoIo_eu_ ofte akofao dorduod ltoo .ead -ccpro use b diffeetovtist olotolt ae O aaae thrats usfu to decor oho .rde-o aOoooue o ct ocd.alcoahrfrtoo ao tfrns ieeem ua trias. The,eerrt ..u..ae.l.th srecooy group of le sahboc a-atry end (2)Ifs .. coutr grou eth -v..abat hogher sraeIncome thao the oo.. ry troop ofthe o9ttcctotoon fc"aua upu otl - hluptee r oer 'toddle income Atot Africa and ttdls1 test' tsr~h.... because Ofsrne ffi-uiua it-nii.e To the reflehecegropdate tht a-eoga eta y alanloti-e-ghsad nttbestId .es. for eth trdtoetr snd shorn onLyue coy atot, f thecoaottes ta grophba trIo u che ordl - Elatar.d g ticteovrea c..rn..a moghe ondlok edpnd yoth eilahility of acts acdI__oobot,autoe-tctoconfceaioae -nuo lettdraorutoro Tes cres otry attl itosptrthelaeo -t todla ..ot- o. . ..c50c rt otr un ---- LOAD AltA (thoanand -qa.)tj9aorcetsloofuI- -I,Ibha. to0d total - Papoat-co (tata Door' - Dutut rortac -oa cpr-Ot iard cta -od inloll uocr.bchr and rureil divided by titer resca five, oehar of hospital tedsl Aeuloarel - toone fdt sttao-re sd eyre flyatpcrorcly arolaiaO phth ttd ptIutegeI Ra_Il rd spectrtreid hospital codi- totucyt pont-e- utIkto ardi lha tId_c anto furt1o._ 107 dat.- hetcto ceners Onptte r chfbet pert_niyetafa by at 'het t pptcher . E-bslfehbmreso protldc pg nielycusoo- itt POP Pu.elTu flOff itde c etri tertethtpte.cl io1 ares rete nut I_tiaded. total hasiae.oeor nluehat 1070, att 1979 deto.. ee0 d toedintotat1 nure mudete. ec. totto otfe_ tI-cttet ace_ ta totRYi CONStPTIPONO Pf0 CAPIDA - yjoof con-oplioc af do.eoalneg falcoi- U puposes .rhe tsltahs lirotutf AldIs1 petnoIpal Iaenlhoptee ao lgnie atote -eoa Iteo hyp.f.-, Iu..t. and g heoter elo-sd ral bmtsnboto oa hs el adsdclan aeet tOothy) tokl raea ol qoaen c atta 06,of, a,d 1979.. certe ..Opostd bopo- r rlddolponoenota LTULLATTOI _E!D_v_1TA_s1AI1S1lCs ~~~~~~~~fnat horpisair divided hy toe nombec at beds. Ton otlaho it-ia thoosardat - ho tO July 0; lOll, 1i70, o-d 1970 HOCofiti dccc. ceee i.e of Hoasehold (rsr e othll-ttt ttn c uo Driac _oaatu _rrc of tuta1f - Roat ta f orb- to totl- poair Ahrsbdorttsfagepof individual sh. share loing. quera dfnncdeffroioo"u of Ialbcecla saY affect corPat-bliI, of daaa-terrinrae oce or dga may ce ny retl hr itolrded he amecgtoutcooe;o 01, tOl. uod 191 data,the house hold fo saisiclporpres.. "aIo.a.... Or -earlil - CaTeut popuhotioc Proerc- acehosd on1t9e f eer e oo nciuba.adrsa acold oocooo totl 1uplaoo bY acc ao l 0 ad tt tcre o o rtloyrts eliorge rae-titOheO. Drellingee-cludennpcmoottotarad feettt ftp cuordlog tr urooe unoef so pato fefi pleaog peciftruaote,.d -1d.ll.g aoM r_rto',u tIoads for ptoofottoc Purposes Adju-hed Etroleenth .ltios httuurp_oatoo-foaecatorory poyholeti thnoe IIu I,r-oth niuca rhlosho er.rl n femae Gos coa,roead t..act the hoert rata to ,-Ia to rho dosofh rot, sod IItotteoarrooter- orIIdr f ogreet th prtary f.eral as percentags f..espcou troiscostao . htoIn cItoe on -ly Ifoer ferolitop roI dectore to prmr cofee ua toa oret uue btdecr eesd 6-li the rpl-oemet taun of uoiltetcIe...d-coorte yh- -0 ac ceerr uopn hut adj.stldfo dfrnt rths of .pru..aty edac_tit_ fur alomtrp fre urt -natl. DbsttThe _ yytrtor..osorn.u.o.h.treoi adcafcerflsntadxeelt pcto et IIor an III basis of tho pru1ectad arrtrotlts of thr -otaoo o oe pupiLI are brIuc or aoou thte flfuialnouo r ioto d:yeaclOf, ooltherae P.rdoTtfaterlt Cotrpae..udapotc-cv olodenePauedcho;rudr sart level. elouacouorequlrtr ~~~~~~~it-rot fou yearnl af apprevd prlnory ior or Paoottuooy r,~tolo s cahn -The peso uhot tsot-_y populasirt proider RenMto, or_t fao , r etce I Iluofntotu o ot 1tota Iocea, lOid ol o 1070 dote. ol-tl(0 .l- ccfudLRtechlul,l -asrll.onf ce r~athr pet aed o1i70000, 070oo 9107 data Putlct _1t raIo-eioylm etde-Ttisoat ouldt PopultionOar oeuctne forceel - hIldre. (0-14 eaa ocnham-k-ga I- ctapul rtlc toi Oddb o Tectut teacher to.l the hJ.eas) a eIreId 10 years. am -oe) -t P.....anear of uid-yna putt- cutrrlc eetII. lat ool 001, lO 9l aud 1070 data Adult Irerp1ychl- Dyrroe-l - d-Literate dultt (ohble to rood and aritef Puueinmohet rrno utoOoetreuot of b-ta po,o- COtl'TTlO letat o lOI- 16091-7 aod 1070-7. PuaoorPr--- horn ttlrttf-Paanrtemosrsrtr Prude t -c C too fetto....odf - On... ItIIue boethn yer thoos..od of itd-...r cars sating lets theneight perrene; encludesanoate - onr id "Poptliol; 0000. 0070, and 1070 data. itflteep - ontle Prud Deeth Rltst (ccc ch .o..ud) - ivvo1 deatha par thootedo of sod-parr Radi tiatovr orjhosr Allloo bt,rpe oP r-eluer for radto p 1uftlr;lot 1070, cod t979 dais.bosute t cera public prr thk..a.od ofyruahueotdent OroraOe_rd-ri-o rot-vrgeel o agtestoa Ay_11 teat to 1itteunala-etore to'i ucorid edhryanumreie.tral di.ee harro-alearruduccor pFelolft Iheeoer eItsp enooa-apeifitcfe- areme offct; datoaToeeIecaot yeo..enoyu bt -euponah i -tot Iduty rtes; tIt_cll lioryo_ raoetog nsdtrg ho 19tD, 1070, rod 107.9n atof btmidlcrtc P-rstolt . tl orlaoccoc toa r ans - Auoouat. nahert ofuercn PT eter to hoasolptaahAff V eeoec o bcoad-attt of bth-dtu-Ouue ns aste of n---oo toihly p.iaclg prtran. geealyblift par tho...a.l populttt ..c ldIr -otuaeed Itre lteioen- tanuly Planrcoc-Innr fpercent of ncerod oon-erett f taned ltcouoto'i.eeod Io yearn obey r.Segtsneatf of TV setno it a.ffect. oteen .f chltldb-tarrgO 1e15-k4 ynar..f oh. ae btith-totrof detOur to reSlerer CoesuOo-fct D.e thosand otcu1lcnttl Shh tenrbr _oetetc_ POPhOtD ANDUTITDION to Pr ~'dlol"' if It sppn-rsoclbunt foo tfsrn a sek. lodaooI olPtoto.e apt 16-1Il oe f pet rapist dnuoi Ion-- Aonool Ottandonue OtCot a teac-henalo the noober- of penduuthoo of rio food caeoldttios. Pr-dalttl o -lude nerd at lead oad .i..at. .nId during tie year. io,clodotgadrsotcstlrov-iotlilonna Os or olelard yea. at. lu ttrotr prImary -ode leg.. ......a.. amd mobIle .nit.. eecornaauiadcd). Aggeecata pro~Iduction of ...cort b.i..so 00 LLiGI tORCE rton _ aonag pruducer lrict eiht. 1961-ID.J"07, Ird101 Iota. o oo ot fooutde) -Etco.amicaly e-tite Pe...me. i-uladlog fort caito noclp of clorito reroetiof rn Itnen IoIs - CPunoa tru a fodtne n nm Ird but _olaloot hoo-ent-e, stdent. Iaet. ehercteooOoelert ot f oat P foo uple aotal otnt e upteovofg ptuoe onI of all oTs.leiotnso rtucumeaor pmla. hoallabr euploe rorsadnat proo ito, rprt O... co coepurabte; lOOt, 1070 end 001 d''ote ruports, -I uharger ft s.tek. Neosuppliher ano lde acina1 teed, -oel, F.ne7pco) - PnI. labor forc em p.e..r.ag. of tuta labor force eaocssnteatusetrdly PAOPb hasd 0 ooooe oeds Out ruroo a,n- ft chtog s ntero f tal laht-rb force; 1000. 1071 and 1070 deto. ato od holtIh __nsdn_ogerluru hrprt are,body cngt, Feodsr (na-ro-) - Latoc fore to 0000i. ctpi o,emuairn sod ran I Onortbutlor uf pupaiecioo, ord all_itgId pre I I. rr..t at aodaia,trftuty, --tn end gee as pe-tot-eP of oo oc O hb..eehoid loceil 19ht-65, 0070, aol 107) late. 1h7t cod 1070 fata. Pet papio supplyof erlocn lerarmpee dat - P-atnhoo-ote- of prrc........ O troltto prrut-ttl u~1 ela_ I.o Afoola - PertOolpattoror, tn suppy uf fol per dY. tint supply of food to deff-l Io aoe ir- ot-ult totes are utoatel,a total, male, cr1 f-lat faIlt fouto- quacoaorn fo ohrot In aotdllshed hy UtDA pooOde fur efounu orurae f tuot1, mal an d tamole pupaa-no of alt getI aotri a..u.. f 0tre .t tot.l proteoO P par la do lDgrn at -nta noI'y btd 170doe.Thr -r bored to il's' Part. etI o ae polo protofr, ofshuch 00 gRoIn- rhoud he Itol Iutfr These soltnIocOloeorsrunro the octuIlor-n and IIIf tOte tred.A ardseroe looentheorhuc ufg...c.ctnot` prunein .. .. ff -rlfrnstueaafaeotfr-ontato-omo--- -tfoa Protloi .I a Ian rag tonthoo 11, -d .propoad hy POD ft the TPird cr--rit Doprodery Rati - Ratio atpuunt order 05 d t5 a-d aunt Aci'd-Food turoy; 19h1-tI, 1907 and 1077 Iota. tath,ott-1 t.b,ht fort. Per -acpo,cteic ofo outtalplo- Pr-anIc oupply of food dr- toe.d ftto aliate rod poOre fn gam Per- lay; 1061-Oh, 1070 aol 0077 date. 111C0PM Il_Tltttt' 010IEL P1I1d (sas -A)lotlc ne(rno.ed - untie. I deaths pet thoa...rd On P-- Ieoeptlo 1~ tr-on tunA It. oat and -dd) - At-tad It -ur-oo -ri- Iota detond f- 1ofe tubs-; 1007. lOl and 1070 lena . uf .t ..athole Ioat teauc ennrh- raa A-aoga roeher of yoan of Ift. rrnaicicg The tafto1'icg atOasae -ey opproOoae renut of pou-ty Irrot at bifrh; 1060, 1907 aold 0107 ltS.. aold hbtld he i.loep-ted oirhcooaile..obtletOn Infant o-talinyR Itt Ie e- ral - &Utro1 deaths of lnf-rnudepao- pear ZOst-lmrd iAbriat. oerrfoteIrn 10 car -opttrf -rhbco and coral1 ofae pe tlh.....d li-o bfrtho . -1ouapvry noelufI tu o re helot, ohota moa beruof p-apin(tona, rbot, aol ruroy nfth oranmebl aces pun tIeafrlte rooct -bohathantros. pluor-nedhu-nboteo,cyrtng..r. adnooitacyaelfl.) tirtltlepo_tttooelee uoa-Or of Iovroo per..p..a fodoou topr utd _ttmr ofat ltsorfomahoeayrproefInc"`dp ot ohfe cuoihy., Irha - levl i af ro h ua ...... II I l.. Fe I. le td 200 -re brl sth eyantare or hgber.uoIof itiogSo i harrras t Istr d benih,o ufolit tearom-bla aces of ha hbota 1.Ictro11Ioeea E-irrmPa ootot Belor Absolute Ptvc,tr ILom.ntlltne b-oro reanrall acums a.,OdIn , p otoha luas,etife trvhasa the househod do po, thaon n-pl r a- I -bprporc-at Dart ofted day io fdcirgn- r ~toutsil npettOotaf coiulatuat-tutal hc _. otdr oal- - i dSle l.0 l ofal 'hoo"p!ro opiotu to-tet dIspsae ayT tid roclatiunoe hstut - Nr opolaruo % Itoid d hy macbetbof prof l.t ing pyg mo.lerd fteale grad.oaa ener pracice ttas aol.. aTestan roote.-  Annex I Page 4 of 5 ECONOMIC DEVILQHENT DATA _/ GNP PER CAPITA IN 1979 US$190 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1979/80 ANNUAL PATE OF GRC90TK %. constant pricesl 5 US$ Bin 7. i955/56-1959/60 196016L-1964/65 1965166-1969/70 1970171-1974/75 1975/76-197LZI7 GNP at M.rket Prices 134.16 100.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 2.8 4.5 Grn.. Domestic Inve-tment 29.24 21.8 Gross National SavinB 28.55 21.3 Current Account Balance d/ -0.85 - 0.6 OUTPUT. LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 1978 Value Added (at factor cost) Labor Force V.A. Per Worker US$ Bn. 7. Kil. US of National AVarIce Agriculture 39,8 39.6 181.3 71 220 56 Industry 25.5 25.3 28.1 11 906 230 Service, 35.3 35.1 46.0 18 767 195 Total/average 1W006 100.0 255.4 100 394 100 GOVERINMENT FIAIANCE General Government Central Govermenn Rs 8n. 7 of GDP Rs. l of DP_ 1979/80 1975/76-1979/0 179/0 1979/80 1975/76-1979/80 Current Receipts 208.18 19.2 18.9 108.96 10.0 10.6 Current Espenditures 206.44 19.0 17.7 117.67 10.8 IO. Current Surplus/Deficit 1.74 0.2 1.2 - 8.71 - 0.8 Capital Enpenditures f/ 81.81 7.5 7.4 56.93 5.2 5.1 internal Assistans- (net) dl 7.97 0.7 0.9 7.97 0.7 0.9 MONEY. CREDIT AND PRICES 1970/71 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 Decmber 1979 Ds_lsr I" (Re Billion outstanding at end of period) Money and Quasi Money 109.6 175.7 194.6 222.9 272.8 329.1 398.9 46.2 448.3 521.7 Dank Credit to Government (net) 52.6 87.3 95.3 101.1 110.2 134.7 153.9 192.2 176.4 231.4 Bank Credit to C,a_ercial Sector 64.6 107.0 126.7 153.9 185.0 212.2 253.5 306.5 294.7 335.9 (Percentage or Inde. Number.) A*riul-kus 1979 April -Dee 199 :loney and Quasi Money as 4 of GDP 27.2 29.8 27.9 30.2 34.0 36.5 40.8 43.1 Wholesale Price lndex (1970/71 - 100) 100.0 139.7 174.9 173.0 176.6 185.8 185.8 217.6 212.2 253.5 Annual percentage changes in: Wholesale Price index 7.7 20.2 25.2 - 1.1 2.1 5.2 - 17.1 14.6 19.5 Dank Credit to Government (net) 10.8 12.3 9.2 6.1 9.0 22.2 14.3 24.9 24.9 j/ 31.2 2 I Rank Credit to Co,ercial Sector 19.4 22.6 18.4 21.5 20.2 14.7 19.5 20.9 17.5 stl 1e. t/ The per capita GNP estimte is at mrket prices, calculated by the conversion technique used in the World Dack AtIae, 1979. All other conver-tons to dollars in this table are at the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered. J Quick Estimates. El Computed from trend line of GNP at factor cost series, including one observation before first year and one observation after last year of listed period. 4i/ World Bank estimates; not necessarily consistent with official figures. SI Transfers between Centre and States have been netted out. LI All loans and advance, to third parties have been netted omt. &/ Percentage change from end-December 1978 to end-December 1979. J/ Percentage change from end-December 1979 to end-December 1980.  Annex I Page S of 5 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 1977/78 1978/79 1979180 1980/81 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1976/77 - 1979/801 Exports of Goods 6,315 6,978 7,958 8,998 Engineering Goods 768 I/ 11 Imports of Goods -7,188 -8,519 -11,249 415,624 Tea 462 7 Trade Balance - 873 -1,541 - 3,291 - 6,626 Gems 605 9 NFS (net) 691 773 633 463 Clothing 460 7 Leather and Leather Resource Balance - 182 -768 - 2.658 - 6.163 Products 425 6 Jute Manufactures 284 4 Interest Payments (net) it - 89 - 35 350 303 Iron Ore 298 5 Other Factor Payments (net) - - - - Cotton Textiles 289 4 Net Transfers 1/ 1,077 1,216 1,458 2,462 Sugar 302 2 Others 3,028 45 Balance on Current Account 806 413 - 850 -3.398 6 751 100 Official Aid Disbursements 1,628 1,695 1,891 2,389 E1TERNAL DEBT. MARCH 31. 1980 Amortization - 645 - 702 - 676 - 707 USS billion Transactions with IMF - 330 - 158 - 1,035 Outstanding and Disbursed 15.6 All Other Items 617 286 - 143 133 Undisbursed 5.7 Outstanding. including 21.3 Increase in Reserves (-) -2,076 -1,534 - 222 548 Undisbursed Gross Reserves (end year) 5,823 7,357 7,579 7,031 Net Reserves (end year) k/ 5,668 7,357 7,579 6,691 DEBT SERVICE RATIO FOR 1979/80 h/!/ 10.4 per cent Fuel and Related Materials IIRD/IDA LENDING. DECEMBER 31. 1980 Imports 1,811 2,043 3,977 7,012 US$ million of which: Petroleum 1,811 2,043 3,977 7,012 IBRD IDA Exports 32 24 26 n.a. Outstanding and Disbursed 806 4,895 Undisbursed 572 3,547 Outstanding, including 1,378 8,442 Undisbursed RATE OF EXCHANGE June 1966 to mid-December 1971 US$1.00 - Re 7.5 Re 1.00 - US$0.133333 Mid-December 1971 to end-June 1972 : US$1.00 - Rs 7.27927 Re 1.00 - US$0.137376 After end-June 1972 Floating Rate Spot Rate end-December 1979 US$1.00 - Re 7.907 Re 1.00 - US$o.126 Spot Rate end-December 1980 : US$1.00 - Rs 7.930 Re 1.00 - US$O.126 h/ Estimated. / Figures given cover all investment income (met). Major pa7ments are interest on foreign loans and charges paid to DO, and major receipt is interest earned on foreign assets. j/ Figures given include workers' remittances but exclude official grant assistance, which is included within official aid disbursements. E Excludes net use of IHF credit. Ll Figure for 1979/80 is estimated. ml Amortization and interest payments on foreign loans as a percentage of exports of goods and services. ApriL 1981  ANNEX II Page 1 of 18 THE STATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN INDIA A. STATEMENT OF BANK LOANS AND IDA CREDITS (As of June 30, 1981) US$ million Loan or (Net of Cancellations) Credit No. Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed 44 Loans/ 1,422.2 - 71 Credits fully disbursed - 4,023.4 - 342-IN 1972 India Education - 12.0 3.23 378-IN 1973 India Karnataka Agricultural Markets - 8.0 0;06 456-IN 1974 India HP Apple Processing & Marketing - 13.0 5.24 1011-IN 1974 India Chambal (Rajasthan) CAD 52.0 - 10.51 482-IN 1974 India Karnataka Dairy - 30.0 15.86 502-IN 1974 India Rajasthan Canal CAD - 83.0 28.53 521-IN 1974 India Rajasthan Dairy - 27.7 12.37 522-IN 1974 India Madhya Pradesh Dairy - 16.4 4.82 1097-IN 1975 ICICI Industry DFC XI 94.6 - 0.79 541-IN 1975 India West Bengal Agric. Development - 34.0 1.29 585-IN 1975 India Uttar Pradesh Water Supply - 40.0 13.73 598-IN 1975 India Fertilizer Industry - 105.0 21.37 604-IN 1976 India Power Transmission IV - 150.0 43.24 609-IN 1976 India Madhya Pradesh Forestry T.A. - 4.0 1.51 610-IN 1976 India Integrated Cotton Development - 18.0 10.23 1251-IN 1976 India Andhra Pradesh Irrigation 145.0 - 77.09 1260-IN 1976 India IDBI II 40.0 - 10.94 1273-IN 1976 India National Seeds I 25.0 - 21.86 1313-IN 1976 India Telecommunications VI 80.0 - 18.25 1335-IN 1976 India Bombay Urban Transport 25.0 - 7.72 680-IN 1977 India Kerala Agric. Development - 30.0 22.98 682-IN 1977 India Orissa Agric. Development - 20.0 7.93 685-IN 1977 India Singrauli Thermal Power - 150.0 37.72 687-IN 1977 India Madras Urban Development - 24.0 4.57 690-IN 1977 India WB Agric. Extension & Research - 12.0 12.00 1394-IN. 1977 India Gujarat Fisheries 14.0 - 7.75 712-IN 1977 India Madhya Pradesh Agric. Development - 10.0 5.35 720-IN 1977 India Periyar Vaigai Irrigation - 23.0 13.68 728-IN 1977 India Assam Agricultural Development - 8.0 5.64 736-IN 1977 India Maharashtra Irrigation - 70.0 30.33 737-IN 1977 India Rajasthan Agric. Extension - 13.0 7.29 740-IN 1977 India Orissa Irrigation - 58.0 29.65 1475-IN 1977 ICICI Industry DFC XII 80.0 - 10.36  ANNEX II Page 2 of 18 US$ million Loan or (Net of Cancellations) Credit No. Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed 747-IN 1978 India Second Foodgrain Storage - 107.0 79.00 756-IN 1978 India Calcutta Urban Development II - 87.0 19.11 761-IN 1978 India Bihar Agric. Extension & Research - 8.0 7.11 1511-IN 1978 India IDBI Joint/Public Sector 25.0 - 17.49 1549-IN 1978 TEC Third Trombay Thermal Power 105.0 - 62.96 788-IN 1978 India Karnataka Irrigation - 117.6 77.28 793-IN 1978 India Korba Thermal Power - 200.0 128.89 806-IN 1978 India Jammu-Kashmir Horticulture - 14.0 13.75 808-IN 1978 India Gujarat Irrigation - 85.0 63.60 815-IN 1978 India Andhra Pradesh Fisheries - 17.5 14.52 816-IN 1978 India National Seeds II - 16.0 15.21 1592-IN 1978 India Telecommunications VII 120.0 - 53.14 824-IN 1978 India National Dairy - 150.0 130.60 842-IN 1979 India Bombay Water Supply II - 196.0 183.12 843-IN 1979 India Haryana Irrigation - 111.0 43.66 844-IN 1979 India Railway Modernization & Maintenance - 190.0 148.97 848-IN 1979 India Punjab Water Supply & Sewerage - 38.0 21.46 855-IN 1979 India National Agricultural Research - 27.0 25.41 862-IN 1979 India Composite Agricultural Extension - 25.0 16.54 871-IN 1979 India NCDC - 30.0 15.55 1648-IN 1979 India Ramagundam Thermal Power 50.0 - 50.00 874-IN 1979 India Ramagundam Thermal Power - 200.0 171.17 889-IN 1979 India Punjab Irrigation - 129.0 100.81 899-IN 1979 India Maharashtra Water Supply - 48.0 44.85 911-IN 1979 India Rural Electrification Corp. II - 175.0 108.09 925-IN 1979 India Uttar Pradesh Social Forestry - 23.0 18.47 947-IN 1979 India ARDC III - 250.0 64.73 963-IN 1979 India Inland Fisheries - 20.0 19.64 954-IN 1979 India Maharashtra Irrigation II - 210.0 174.13 961-IN 1979 India Gujarat Community Forestry - 37.0 30.31 981-IN 1980 India Population II - 46.0 45.44 1003-IN 1980 India Tamil Nadu Nutrition - 32.0 30.87 1004-IN 1980 India U.P. Tubewells - 18.0 16.95 1011-IN 1980 India Gujarat Irrigation II - 175.0 165.00 1027-IN 1980 India Singrauli Thermal II - 300.0 279.15 1012-IN 1980 India Cashewnut - 22.0 21.75 1028-IN 1980 India Kerala Agricultural Extension - 10.0 10.00 1033-IN 1980 India Calcutta Urban Transport - 56.0 56.00 1034-IN 1980 India Karnataka Sericulture 54.0 52.85 1046-IN 1980 India Rajasthan Water Supply  ANNEX II Page 3 of 18 US$ million Loan or (Net of Cancellations) Credit No. Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed and Sewerage - 80.0 77.22 1843-IN 1980 ICICI Industry DFC XIII 100.0 - 77.97 1887-IN 1980 India Farakka Thermal Power 25.0 - 25.00 1053-IN 1980 India Farakka Thermal Power - 225.0 201.16 1897-IN 1980 India Kandi Watershed and Area Development 30.0 - 29.01 1072-IN 1980 India Bihar Rural Roads - 30.7 30.30 1078-IN 1980 India Mahanadi Barrages - 72.8 72.80 1925-IN 1980 India Bombay High Offshore Development 400.0 - 393.42 1082-IN 1981 India Madras Urban Dev. II - 37.5 37.50 1108-IN 1981 India M.P. Medium Irrigation - 129.6 129.60 1112-IN 1981 India Telecommunications VIII - 290.4 268.70 1116-IN 1981 India Karnataka Tank Irrigation - 50.1 50.10 1135-IN* 1981 India Maharashtra Agr. Extension - 21.7 21.70 1137-IN* 1981 India Tamil Nadu Agr. Extension - 26.3 26.30 1138-IN* 1981 India Madhya Pradesh Agr. Extension II - 34.9 34.90 1146-IN* 1981 India NCDC II - 117.1 117.10 Total 2,832.8 9,322.7 of which has been repaid 1,090.2 77.7 Total now outstanding 1,742.6 9,24 Amount Sold 133.8 of which has been repaid 133.3 0.5 - Total now held by Bank and IDA 1/ 1,742.1 9,245.0 Total undisbursed (excluding*) 874.3 3,620.0 1/ Prior to exchange adjustment. * Not yet effective.  ANNEX II kaage 4 of 18 B. STATEMENT OF IFC INVESTMENTS (As of June 30, 1981) Amount (US$ million) Year Company Loan Equity Total 1959 Republic Forge Company Ltd. 1.5 - 1.5 1959 Kirloskar Oil Engines Ltd. 0.9 - 0.9 1960 Assam Sillimanite Ltd. 1.4 - 1.4 1961 K.S.B. Pumps Ltd. 0.2 - 0.2 1963-66 Precision Bearings India Ltd. 0.6 0.4 1.0 1964 Fort Gloster Industries Ltd. 0.8 0.4 1.2 1964-75-79 Mahindra Ugine Steel Co. Ltd. 11.8 1.3 13.1 1964 Lakshmi Machine Works Ltd. 1.0 0.3 1.3 1967 Jayshree Chemicals Ltd. 1.1 0.1 1.2 1967 Indian Explosives Ltd. 8.6 2.9 11.5 1969-70 Zuari Agro-Chemicals Ltd. 15.1 3.8 18.9 1976 Escorts Limited 6.6 - 6.6 1978 Housing Development Finance Corporation 4.0 1.2 5.2 1980 Deepak Fertilizer and Petrochemicals Corporation Ltd. 7.5 1.0 8.6 1981 Coromandel Fertilizers Limited 15.9 15.9 1981 Tata Iron and Steel Company Ltd. 38.0 - 38.0 1981 Mahindra, Mahindra Limited 15.0 - 15.0 1981 Nagarjuna Coated Tubes Ltd. 2.9 0.3 3.2 1981 Nagarjuna Signode Limited 2.3 - 2.3 1981 Nagarjuna Stoels Limited 1.5 0.3 1.8 TOTAL GROSS COMMITMENTS 136.7 12.0 148.7 Less: Sold 26.0 1.7 27.7 Repaid 22.2 - 22.2 Cancelled 6.2 1.3 7.5 NoT' Held 82.3 9.0 91.3 Undisbursed 79.3 1.5 80.8  ANNEX II Page 5 of 18 C. PROJECTS IN EXECUTION 1/ Generally, the implementation of projects has been proceeding reasonably well. Details on the execution of individual projects are below. The level of disbursements was US$962 million in FY81, compared to US$729 million in the previous year, representing an increase of about 32%. The undisbursed pipeline of US$4,494 million as of June 30, 1981, reflects the lead time which would be expected given the mix of fast- and slow-disbursing projects in the India program. Ln. No. 1097 Eleventh Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India Project; US$100.0 million loan of April 2, 1975; Effective Date: July 1, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Ln. No. 1475 Twelfth Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India Project; US$80.0 million loan of July 22, 1977; Effective Date: October 4, 1977; Closing Date: March 31, 1983 Ln. No. 1843 Thirteenth Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India Project; US$100.0 million loan of May 16, 1980; Effective Date: June 27, 1980; Closing Date: December 31, 1985 These loans are supporting industrial development in India through a well-established development finance company and are designed to finance the foreign exchange cost of industrial projects. ICICI continues to be a well-managed and efficient development bank financing medium- and large-scale industries, which often employ high technology and. are export-oriented. Disbursements under both loans 1475 and 1843 are Ehead of schedule. Loan No. 1260 Second Industrial Development Bank oi India Project; US$40.0 million loan of June 10, 1976; Effective Date: August 10, 1976; Closing Datea: March 31, 1983 Loan No. 1511 IDBI Joint/Public Sector Project, US$25.0 million loan of March 1, 1978; Effective Date: May 31, 1978; Closing Date: March 31, 1983 Loan 1260 is designed to assist the Indus. rial Development Bank of India in promoting small- and medium-scale industries and in strengthening the State Financial Corporations involved. Loan 1511 is designed to encourage the pooling of private and public capital in medium-scale joint ventures. The project also assists IDBI in carrying out industrial sector 1/ These notes are designed to inform the Executive Directors regarding the progress of projects in execution, and in particular to report any problems which are being encountered and the action being taken to remedy them. They should be read in this sense and with the understanding that they do not purport to present a balanced evaluation of strengths and weaknesses in project execution.  ANNEX II Page 6 of 18 investment studies and in strengthening the financial institutions dealing with the state joint/public sector. Cr. No. 947 Third Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation (ARDC) Project; US$250.0 million credit of August 20, 1979; Effective Date: January 2, 1980; Closing Date: June 30, 1982 Refinancing of lending to farmers has been progressing very well. Cr. No. 747 Second Foodgrain Storage Project; US$107.0 million credit of January 6, 1978; Effective Date: May 17, 1978; Closing Date: June 30, 1982 Satisfactory progress is being made in the construction of bag storage warehouses, despite problems of land acquisition at some sites. However, construction of flat bulk warehouses and port silos is not expected to be completed until 1984, as a result of delays in the employment of con- sultants and the longer time required for the preparation of technical specifications and tenders and the construction itself. In view of the high increases in bulk storage construction costs, the Government is proposing to reduce the bulk storage component of the project in favor of additional bag storage capacity; this proposal is currently under consideration by the Association. Cr. No. 456 Himachal Pradesh Apple Processing and Marketing Project; US$13.0 million credit of January 22, 1974; Effective Date: September 26, 1974; Closing Date: December 31, 1981 The project encountered prolonged initial delays due to managerial and technical problems. These problems have been largely resolved, but construction progress remains slow due to material shortages and severe winter conditions. Initial packing house operations were undertaken in the last two seasons with favorable response from farmers. The project is scheduled for completion by December 1981. Cr. No. 806 Jammu-Kashmir Horticulture Project; US$14.0 million credit of July 17, 1978; Effective Date: January 16, 1979; Closing Date: June 30, 1984 The principal executing agency, J&K Horticulture Produce Marketing and Processing Corporation, is under strong management and rapid progress has been made in start-up operations with only minor slippage. The project's research activities, however, are behind the original schedule due to poor organization. Ln. No. 1313 Telecommunications VI Project; US$80.0 million loan of July 22, 1976; Effective Date: September 14, 1976 Closing Date: March 31, 1982 Ln. No. 1592 Telecommunications VII Project; US$120.0 million loan of June 19, 1978; Effective Date: October 30, 1978; Closing Date: March 31, 1982  ANNEX II Page 7 of 18 Cr. No. 1112 Telecommunications VIII Project; US$314 million credit of March 26, 1981; Effective Date: June 24, 1981; Closing Date: December 31, 1984 Loans 1313 and 1592 are progressing satisfactorily, although as of June 1981, when they were last reviewed, imports of electronic switching equipment for the projects were behind schedule, resulting in a reduced growth rate for the installation of direct exchange lines. Institutional improvements envisaged under the projects have been achieved, and the finan- cial situation of the Posts atid Telegraphs Department remains sound. Credit 1112, which became effective in June 1981, provides for the continued expansion, over a three-year period, of the Indian telecommunications net- work, particularly in rural areas. It also provides for the modernization and upgrading of three existing telecommunications equipment factories, and the establishment of three additional ones. Initial implementation and procurement actions are proceeding on schedule. Cr. No. 598 Fertilizer Industry Project; US$105.0 million credit of Decem- ber 31, 1975; Effective Date: March 1, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1982 Credit 598 is designed to increase the utilization of existing fer- tilizer production capacity. The project has encountered delays in sub-project preparation and investment approvals by the Government. Further, some of the sub-projects identified earlier have not materialized because of reconsideration by the Central and State governments. IDA has agreed to a list of sub-projects to replace the ones that have been dropped. Because of the above, the project completion date has been delayed. Cr. No. 342 Agricultural Universities Project; US$12.0 million credit of November 10, 1972; Effective Date: June 8, 1973; Closing Date: December 31, 1981 The project involves the development of the agricultural universities in Assam and Bihar. The primary aim of the AUs project is to improve the quality and practical training of undergraduates and so the spectrum of their employment opportunities; and to strengthen university structure to enable it to give an impetus to agricultural and rural development. Considerable progress has been made in achieving the latter objective; but achieving educational objectives is more slowly attainable, constrained by traditional attitudes and structures where cornsistent effective leadership falters. Changes to a more functional orientation are now planned. The Project Direc- tor and others responsible are aware of the constraints and are supporting efforts to remove them. Cr. No. 842 Second Bombay Water Supply and Sewerage Project; US$196.0 million credit of November 13, 1978; Effective Date: June 12, 1979; Closing Date: March 31, 1985 Cr. No. 848 Punjab Water Supply and Sewerage Project; US$38.0 million credit of October 27, 1978; Effective Date: January 25, 1979; Closing Date: March 31, 1983  ANNEX II Page 8 of 18 Cr. No. 899 Maharashtra Water Supply and Sewerage Project; US$48.0 million credit of June 21, 1979; Effective Date: November 9, 1979; Closing Date: June 30, 1984 Cr. No. 1046 Rajasthan Water Supply and Sewerage Project; US$80 million credit of June 25, 1980; Effective Date: August 5, 1980; Closing Date: September 31, 1985 Implementation of Credit 842, a second stage of the recently com- pleted first Bombay Water Supply and Sewerage Project (Credit 390), is proceeding to schedule. Preliminary work in connection with implementation of Credit 848 has been completed but subsequent procurement delays and slow release of construction funds are likely to delay the project by about 12 months and result in cost increases. Physical progress under Credit 899 is satisfactory. Initial delays in implemention of institutional arrangements and tariff measures proposed for the project are now being overcome. Project progress in this area is being closely monitored. Implementation of Credit 1046 is proceeding satisfactorily. Detailed construction programs have been prepared for rural schemes, and preparation of tender documents for urban schemes have been completed. Cr. No. 585 Uttar Pradesh Water Supply and Sewerage Project; US$40.0 million credit of September 25, 1975; Effective Date: February 6, 1976; Closing Date: December 31, 1982 The Project has had a slow start due to delays in the preparation of technical reports for regional and local water authorities and in the engage- ment of consultants. While improvements have been made in the physical execution, other aspects of project implementation continue to lag so that disbursements under the Credit have fallen short of estimates at the time of appraisal. In order to improve the situation, arrangements have been made to closely supervise and coordinate implementation. Cr. No. 756 Second Calcutta Urban Development Project; US$87.0 million credit of January 6, 1978; Effective Date: April 7, 1978; Closing Date: March 31, 1983 The project is proceeding quite well in most sectors, in spite of country-wide materials shortages and serious Statewide electric power shortages. Procurement is generally on schedule for equipment and consult- ants' services, though somewhat behind for larger civil works contracts. Staff shortages in some of the implementing agencies continue, although more extensive use of consultants has to a great degree alleviated this problem. Cr. No. 687 Madras Urban Development Project; US$24.0 million credit of April 1, 1977; Effective Date: June 30, 1977; Closing Date: September 30, 1981 With respect to the first Madras project, physical progress is generally satisfactory and costs are within appraisal estimates on most components. However, land acquisition problems and consequent delays in construction on one of the three sites and service areas will result in about 15 months delay in the completion of the final sections of these areas.  ANNEX II Page 9 of 18 Increased attention should be turned to the financial analysis and marketing strategies required to ensure that anticipated cost recovery in the sites and services and slum upgrading components and thus replicability is actually achieved. Technical assistance is being sought to strengthen financial management and analysis. Cr. No. 1082 Second Madras Urbain Development Project; US$42.0 credit of January 14, 1981; Effectiveness Date: March 2, 1981; Closing Date: March 31, 1986. With respect to the second project, only recently signed and declared effective, early project implementation is proceeding satisfac- torily, with evidence that the lessons learned under the first project are being heeded. Cr. No. 482 Karnataka Dairy Development Project; US$30.0 million credit of June 19, 1974; Effective Date: December 23, 1974; Closing Date: September 30, 1982 Cr. No. 521 Rajasthan Dairy Development Project; US$27.7 million credit of December 18, 1974; Effective Date: August 8, 1975; Closing Date: December 31, 1982 Cr. No. 522 Madhya Pradesh Dairy Development Project; US$16.4 million credit of December l8, 1974; Effective Date: July 23, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1982 Cr. No. 824 National Dairy Project; US$150.0 million credit of June 19, 1978 Effective Date: December 20, 1978; Closing Date: December 31, 1985 These four credits, totalling US$224.1 million, support dairy development projects organiized along the lines of the successful AMUI. dairy cooperative scheme in Gujarat State. More than 2,100 dairy cooperative societies (DCS) have been estabLished mnder the three state projects (Kar- nataka-923, Rajasthan-926, Madhya Pradesh-272). Farmer response has been excellent and project auttiorities are under considerable producer pressure to speed up the establishment of DCS. Profitability in almost all of the DCS is good and construction of dairy and feed plants is now proceeding at a satisfactory pace. Limited milc processing capacity has been the major constraint to DCS formation in all three projects. Under the National Dairy Project, three subprojects with an estimated total cost of approximately Rs 1,000 million have been appraised by the Indian Dairy Corporation and a further eight sub-projects are in various stages of preparation and appraisal. Advance procurement of dairy equipment is well underway though disbursements have been slow, mainly as a result in the start of project operations. Ln. No. 1011 Chambal (Rajasthan) Command Area Development Project; US$52.0 million loan of June 19, 1974; Effective Date: December 12, 1974; Closing Date: June 30, 1982  ANNEX II Page 10 of 18 Cr. No. 502 Rajasthan Canal Command Area Development Project; US$83.0 million credit of July 31, 1974; Effective Date: December 12, 1974; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Ln. No. 1251 Andhra Pradesh Irrigation and Command Area Development (TW) Composite Project; US$145.0 million loan (Third Window) of June 10, 1976; Effective Date: September 7, 1976; Closing Date: December 31, 1982 Cr. No. 720 Periyar Vaigai Irrigation Project; US$23.0 million credit of June 30, 1977; Effective Date: September 30, 1977; Closing Date: March 31, 1983 Cr. No. 736 Maharashtra Irrigation Project; US$70.0 million credit of October 11, 1977; Effective Date: January 13, 1978; Closing Date: March 31, 1983 Cr. No. 740 Orissa Irrigation Project; US$58.0 million of October 11, 1977; Effective Date: January 16, 1978; Closing date: October 31, 1983 Cr. No. 788 Karnataka Irrigation Project; US$126.0 million credit of May 12, 1978; Effective Date: August 10, 1978; Closing Date: March 31, 1984 Cr. No. 808 Gujarat Irrigation Project; US$85.0 million credit of July 17, 1978; Effective Date: October 31, 1978; Closing Date: June 30, 1984 Cr. No. 843 Haryana Irrigation Project; US$111.0 million credit of August 16, 1978; Effective Date: December 14, 1978; Closing Date: August 31, 1983 Cr. No. 889 Punjab Irrigation Project; US$120.0 million credit of March 30, 1979; Effective Date: June 20, 1979; Closing Date: June 30, 1985 Cr. No. 954 Second Maharashtra Irrigation Project; US$210 million credit of April 14, 1980; Effective Date: June 6, 1980; Closing Date: December 31, 1985 Cr. No. 1011 Second Gujarat Irrigation Project; US$175 million credit of May 12, 1980; Effective Date: June 27, 1980; Closing Date: April 30, 1986 Cr. No. 1078 Mahanadi Barrages Project; US$83 million credit of December 5, 1980; Effective Date: February 11, 1981; Closing Date: March 31, 1987 Cr. No. 1108 Madhya Pradesh Medium Irrigation Project; US$140 million credit of March 26, 1981; Effective Date: May 13, 1981; Closing Date: March 31, 1987 These projects, based on existing large irrigation systems, are designed to improve the efficiency of water utilization and, where possible,  ANNEX II Page 11 of 18 to use water savings for bringing additional areas under irrigation. Canal lining and other irrigation infrastructure, drainage, and land shaping are prominent components of these projects. In addition, provisions have been made to increase agricultural production and marketing by reforming and upgrading agricultural extension services and by providing processing and storage facilities and village access roads. Progress of these projects is generally satisfactory. Cr. No. 682 Orissa Agricultural Development Project; US$20.0 million credit of April 1, 1977; Effective Date: June 28, 1977; Closing Date: December 31, 1983 Cr. No. 690 West_Bengal Agricultural Extension and Research Project; US$12.0 million credit of June 1, 1977; Effective Date: August 30, 1977; Closing Date: September 30, 1982 Cr. No. 712 Madhya Pradesh Agricultural Extension and Research Project; US$10.0 million credit of June 1, 1977; Effective Date: September 2, 1977; Closing Date: September 30, 1983 Cr. No. 728 Assam Agricultural Development Project; US$8.0 million credit of June 30, 1977; Effective Date: September 30, 1977; Closing Date: March 31, 1983 Cr. No. 737 Rajasthan Agricultural Extension and Research Project; US$13.0 million credit of November 14, 1977; Effective Date: February 6, 1978; Closing Date: June 30, 1983 Cr. No. 761 Bihar Agricultural Extension and Research Project; US$8.0 million credit of January 6, 1978; Effective Date: May 2, 1978; Closing Date: October 31, 1983 Cr. No. 862 Composite Agricultural Extension Project, US$25.0 million credit of February 16, 1979; Effective Date: December 14, 1979; Closing Date: December 31, 1984 Cr. No. 1028 Kerala Agricultural Extension Project; US$10 million credit of June 25, 1980; Effective Date: August 18, 1980; Closing Date: June 30, 1986 Cr. No. 1137 Tamil Nadu Agricultural Extension Project; US$28 million credit of May 7, 1981; Effective Date: July 22, 1981; Closing Date: June 30, 1987 Cr. No. 1135 Maharashtra Agricultural Extension Project; US$23 million credit of May 7, 1981; Effective Date: July 22, 1981; Closing Date: June 30, 1987  ANNEX II Page 12 of 18 Cr. No. 1138 Madhya Pradesh Agricultural Extension Project; US$23 million credit of May 7, 1981-; Effective Date- July 22, 1981; Closing Date: June 30, 1987 These eleven credits finance the reorganization and strengthening of agricultural extension services and the development of adaptive research capabilities in twelve States in India. In areas where the reformed exten- sion system is in full operation, field results have been very good, both in terms of adoption of new agricultural techniques and of increased crop yields. In Rajasthan, Assam, Madhya Pradesh and Orissa, in particular, significant gains have been made under the projects. In West Bengal, where a change in government brought a review of the organizational principles under- lying the new extension system and an accompanying hiatus in project implementation, a Cabinet decision has reaffirmed the State Government's commitment to the project, revised implementation plans have been prepared, and project activities are resuming. In Bihar, staff shortages, particularly in supervisory and managerial posts, have hampered project implementation, although progress in areas where regular extension visits are being made attests to the efficacy of the system itself. In Gujarat, Haryana and Kar- nataka, all covered under the Composite Agricultural Extension Project, important early administrative and financial steps have been taken to pave the way for effective operation of the reorganized extension system and field work is off to a good start. In Kerala, project implementation has begun in three of eleven districts after some initial start-up delays. Early progress on civil works and initiation of the program in the remaining eight districts will be required to regain the initial implementation schedule. In Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra, project implementation has just begun, as these credits became effective only recently. Early project review missions are scheduled to assist in project initiation. Cr. No. 855 National Agriculture Research Project; US$27.0 million credit of December 7, 1978; Effective Date: January 22, 1979; Closing Date: September 30, 1983 While the initial sanctioning of research subprojects under this project was somewhat slower than expected, due to staff shortages in the Project Unit, the pace has picked up considerably in recent months. Commit- ment of funds to research subprojects is proceeding satisfactorily, although corresponding disbursements may lag somewhat behind the original estimates. Additions to the staff of the Project Unit have been made to expedite further progress under the project. Cr. No. 526 Drought Prone Areas Project; US$35.0 million credit of January 24, 1975; Effective Date: June 9, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 Overall progress of this project continues to be satisfactory. Implementation of most components is proceeding well. Dairying and dryland farming components show particular promise for the drought-prone areas.  ANNEX II Page 13 of 18 Cr. No. 680 Kerala Agricultural Development Project; US$30.0 million credit of April 1, 1977; Effective Date: June 29, 1977; Closing Date: March 31, 1985 Project implementation started slowly due to initial staffing and funding delays. The project has now gained momentum and the planting opera- tions, which were one season behind original schedule, have been rephased to make up for lost time. Cr. No. 871 National Cooperative Development Corporation (NCDC) Project; US$30.0 million credit of February 2, 1979; Effective Date: May 3, 1979; Closing date: December 31, 1984 Cr. No. 1146 Second National Cooperative Development Corporation (NCDC) Project; US$125 million credit of July 21, 1981; Effective Date (expected): October 21, 1981; Closing Date: June 30, 1987 As of October 1980, when Credit 871 was last reviewed, and according to quarterly reports through March 1981, construction of godowns was progressing well in the States of Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, although some delays had occurred in the State of Orissa. Consultants had been recruited to assist NCDC and State Cooperative Banks in strengthening their institu- tions, although some consultants were yet to be recruited in Haryana. Dis- bursements have been progressing well and are ahead of the appraisal targets. Credit 1146, which was signed in July 1981, provides credit for the construc- tion of cooperative godowns and cold-storage and marketing facilities to support the pre- and post-harvest supply and markting requirements in nine States; promote the development of cooperative institutions in these States; and expand cooperative subproject preparation and appraisal activities within the cooperative sector. Preparatory implementation work is well advanced in most of the participating States. Cr. No. 844 Railway Modernization and Maintenance Project; US$190.0 million credit of November 13, 1978; Effective Date: January 10, 1979; Closing Date: December 31, 1984 Credit 844 was designed to help the Indian Railways reduce manufac- turing and maintenance costs of locomotives and rolling stock and to improve their performance and availability. Project implementation is satisfactory. Cr. No. 609 Madhya Pradesh Forestry Technical Assistance Project; US$4.0 million credit of February 26, 1976; Effective Date: May 17, 1976; Closing Date: December 31, 1981 A feasibility study financed under this Credit and completed in November 1979 has recommended the establishment of two mills, one for sawnwood and one for pulp, as the basis of the development of a forest-based industry in Bastar district. Cr. No. 925 Uttar Pradesh Social Forestry Project; US$23.0 million credit of June 21, 1979; Effective Date: January 3, 1980; Closing Date: December 31, 1984  ANNEX II Page 14 of 18 Cr. No. 961 Gujarat Community Forestry Project; US$37 million credit of April 14, 1980; Effective Date: June 24, 1980; Closing Date: December 31, 1985 These projects, designed to expand the social forestry program in Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, to provide a source of energy to the villages, and to supply raw materials to cottage industries, are proceeding well. The projects provide for large-scale tree plantations on public lands, primarily along roads, rails and canals, on village common lands and on degraded forest reserves. Cr. No. 610 Integrated Cotton Development Project; US$18.0 million credit of February 26, 1976; Effective Date: November 30, 1976; Closing Date: December 31, 1981 The project's progress remained very disappointing in all areas until the 1978 season, resulting in negligible disbursements. Due to renewed interests from GOI and the States, the project has now started to progress well. Short-term credits are increasing significantly, new processing units are being established in Haryana and Maharashtra, and plant protection activities have started progressing well. Ln. No. 1273 National Seed Project; US$25.0 million loan of June 10, 1976; Effective Date: October 8, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1918 Cr. No. 816 Second National Seed Project; US$16.0 million credit of July 17, 1978; Effective Date: December 20, 1978; Closing Date: Closing Date: December 31, 1984 These projects were designed to increase the availability of high quality agricultural seed, and cover nine States (four by Ln. 1273-IN and five by Cr. 816-IN). The first project started slowly due to organizational difficulties and is almost two years behind schedule. Progress in the second project States is more satisfactory. The role of various organizations (National and State) in the production and processing of seed is being reviewed. Ln. No. 1335 Bombay Urban Transport Project; US$25.0 million loan of December 20, 1976; Effective Date: March 10, 1977; Closing Date: June 30, 1983 Cr. No. 1033 Calcutta Urban Transport Project; US$56 million credit of October 27, 1980; Effective Date: December 18, 1980; Closing Date: December 31, 1984 The bus procurement program supported by the Bombay project (Ln. 1335) has proceeded on schedule, with all 700 bus chassis and bodies having been ordered and 672 already in service. Total fleet strength has increased from 1,530 buses at the inception of the project to 1,935 buses in September 1980, in accordance with appraisal estimates. Depot capacity expansion has lagged somewhat behind fleet expansion, but caught up in Novem- ber 1980. However, delays in construction of new workshop facilities have been more substantial and will not be fully recoverable. As a result, the  ANNEX II Page 15 of 18 loan closing date has been extended by three years. Traffic management civil works are also somewhat behind schedule, although now proceeding satisfac- torily. Implementation of works under Cr. 1033 is proceeding satisfactorily, a good start having been made on the important early procurement steps. However, fnancial and managerial performance is lagging somewhat behing expectations and must now receive project authorities' full attention if physical and financial performance targets are to be achieved. Cr. No. 1072 Bihar Rural Roads Project; US$35.0 million credit of December 5, 1980; Effective Date: January 15, 1981; Closing Date: June 30, 1986. Bids have been invited for the first year program of rural road construction to allow work to start following the monsoon. The whole project aims to construct or rehabilitate 700 km of rural roads and to improve main- tenance of the rural road network in Bihar as part of the State's overall rural development efforts. Equipment has been ordered and is starting to arrive. Ln. No. 1394 Gujarat Fisheries Project; US$14.0 million loan and US$4.0 (TW) and million credit of April 22, 1977; Effective date: July 19, 1977; Cr. No. 695 Closing Date: June 30, 1983 Cr. No. 815 Andhra Pradesh Fisheries Project; US$17.5 million credit of June 19, 1978; Effective Date: October 31, 1978; Closing Date: September 30, 1984 As of October 1980 when the first of these projects was last reviewed, the harbor construction works at Mangrol and Veraval in Gujarat had encountered delays, although the problem with shortages of cement supplies had been overcome. In Andhra Pradesh, the harbor works at Visakhapatnam, Kakinada and Nizampatnam are progressing satisfactorily following the resolu- tion of design problems. The road component is also progressing satisfac- torily. Cr. No. 963 Inland Fisheries Project; US$20 million credit of January 18, 1980; Effective Date: May 5, 1980; Closing Date: September 30, 1985 This project, which is the first of its kind in India, is designed to increase carp production in five states--West Bengal, Bihar, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh--through the construction of hatcheries, improvements to fish ponds, strengthening of extension services, and the establishment of training centers. The project became effective in May 1980. The initial implementation tasks, primarily involving the establishment of State Fish Seed Development Corporations and Central and State project monitoring units, are progressing satisfactorily. However, hatchery planning has been delayed as a result of a delay in the establishment of the engineer- ing cell within the Central Project Unit. Cr. No. 685 Singrauli Thermal Power Project; US$150.0 million credit of April 1, 1977; Effective Date: June 28, 1977; Closing Date: December 31, 1983  ANNEX II Page 16 of 18 Cr. No. 793 Korba Thermal Power Project; US$200.0 million credit of May 12, 19/8; Effective Date: August 14, 1978; Closing Date: March 31, 1985 Ln. No. 1549 Third Trombay Thermal Power Project; US$105.0 million loan of June 19, 1978; Effective Date: February 8, 1979; Closing Date: March 31, 1984 Ln. No. 1648 Ramagundam Thermal Power Project; US$50.0 million loan and and Cr. 874 US$200 million credit of February 2, 1979; Effective Date: may 22, 1979; Closing Date: December 31, 1985 Cr. No. 604 Power Transmission IV Project; US$150 million credit of January 22, 1976; Effective Date: October 22, 1976; Closing Date: December 31, 1982 Cr. No. 1027 Second Singrauli Thermal Power Project; US$300 million credit of June 5, 1980; Effective Date: July 30, 1980; Closing Date: March 31, 1988 Ln. No. 1887 Farakka Thermal Power Project; US$25 million loan and and US$225 million credit of July 11, 1980; Effective Date: Cr. No. 1053 December 10, 1980; Closing Date: March 31, 1987 Credits 685 and 1027 assist in financing the 2,000 MW Singrauli development, which is the first of four power stations in the Government's program for the development of large central thermal power stations feeding power into an interconnected grid. Credit 793 supports the construction of the first three 200 MW generating units at the second such station, at Korba, together with related facilities and associated transmission. Loan 1648/ Credit 874 support similar investments at Ramagundam, and Loan 1887/ Credit 1053, at Farakka. The National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) has been carrying out construction and operation of these power stations. Loan 1549 is supporting the construction of a 500 MW extension of the Tata Electric Companies' station at Trombay, in order to help meet the forecast load growth in the Bombay area. All these large-scale thermal power projects are progressing satisfactorily. For Singrauli and Korba, construction works are on or ahead of schedule, although some slippage has occurred in the implementation schedule for the Ramagundam project. Cr. No. 911 Rural Electrification Corporation II Project; US$175.0 million credit of June 21, 1979; Effective Date: October 17, 1979; Closing Date: March 31, 1984 The project is progressing satisfactorily. Ln. No. 1925 Second Bombay High Offshore Development Project; US$400.0 million loan of December 11, 1980; Effective Date: February 24, 1981 Closing Date: March 31, 1984 The project is progressing satisfactorily.  ANNEX II Page 17 of 18 Cr. No. 981 Second Population Project; US$46 million credit of April 14, 1980; Effective Date: June 26, 1980; Closing Date: December 31, 1985 The project has as its major objectives the lowering of infant and child mortality and morbidity, the improvement in the health status of mothers and children and the lowering of fertility. Implementation works have started in both project States--Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Cr. No. 1012 Cashewnut Project; US$22 million credit of June 10, 1980; Effective Date: September 3, 1980; Closing Date: September 30, 1985 Implementation has started on this project which is designed to expand cashewnut production in the States of Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa. Cr. No. 1003 Tamil Nadu Nutrition Project; US$32 million credit of May 12, 1980; Effective Date: August 5, 1980; Closing Date: March 31, 1987 First year's implementation in one test block is proceeding according to schedule. Cr. No. 1004 Uttar Pradesh Public Tubewells Project; US$18 million credit of May 12, 1980; Effective Date: June 27, 1980; Closing Date: March 31, 1983 Initial procurement delays having now been overcome, implementation is proceeding satisfactorily on this project. However, project completion will likely be delayed by approximately six months due to the initial delays. Ln. No. 1897 Kandi Watershed and Area Development Project; US$30.0 million loan of September 12, 1980; Effective Date: November 18, 1980; Closing Date: March 31, 1986. Contract for the construction of Dholbaha dam has been awarded. Progress in other components are satisfactory. Cr. No. 1034 Karnataka Sericulture Project; US$54 million credit of October 27, 1980; Effective Date: December 18, 1980 Closing Date: December 31, 1985 Overall progress in project implementation is satisfactory. Minor start up delays in staffing are being corrected.  ANNEX II Page 18 of 18 Cr. No. 1116 Karnataka Tank Irrigation Project; US$54 million credit of March 26, 1981; Effective Date: May 5, 1981; Closing Date: March 31, 1986 The project is designed to finance the construction, over a four-year period, of about 160 tank irrigation schemes throughout the State of Karnataka. Start-up activities have commenced.  ANNEX III Page 1 of 2 INDIA WEST BENGAL SOCIAL FORESTRY PROJECT SUPPLEMENTARY PROJECT DATA SHEET Section I: Timetable of Key Events (a) Time taken by the country to prepare the project Six months. (b) The agency which has prepared the project The Government of West Bengal assisted by Bank Group staff. (c) Date of first presentation to the Association and date of first mission to consider the project October 1980 (d) Date of departure of appraisal mission January 1981. (e) Date of completion of negotiations August 10, 1981. (f) Planned date of effectiveness January 1982 Section II: Special IDA Implementation Actions None  ANNEX III Page 2 of 2 Section III: Special Conditions (a) GOWB to create two new forestry circles within SFW, one not later than December 31, 1981, and the other not later than December 31, 1983 (para 45). (b) GOWB to submit to the Association a mid-term evaluation of the project by March 31, 1984 (para 45). (c) GOWB to appoint consultants for stove technology, communication and extension and monitoring and evaluation by December 31, 1981 (paras 45, 46 and 49). (d) GOWB to establish a State Policy Committee and District Policy Committees by April 30, 1982 (para 47). (e) GOWB to provide housing or rent allowances as necessary to ensure that SFW field staff live in or near their work areas (para. 48).   IBRD 15616R1 ! 8