Togo - Power and Engineering and Technical Assistance Project - Benin

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FLE COPY Report No.P-3128-BEN/TO REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT CREDIT TO THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF BENIN AND A PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF TOGO FOR A POWER ENGINEERING AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT October 8, 1981 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = CFA Franc ,CFAF) US$1.00 = CFAF 270 CFAF 1 million = US$3,704 FISCAL YEARS Governments ; January 1 - December 31 CEB January 1 - December 31 CEET October 1 - September 30 SBEE July 1 - June 30 MEASURES AND EQUIVALENTS kilogram (kg) = 2.2 pounds meter (m) = 39.37 inches kilometer (km) = 0.62 miles kilovolt (kV) = 1,000 volts kilowatt (kW) = 1,000 watts kilovolt-ampere (kVA) = 1,000 volt amperes Megawatt (MW) = 1,000 kilowatts (kW) Gigawatt hour (GWh) = 1 million kilowatt hours (kWh) Ton crude oil equivalent (TOE) = 4,000 kWh ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CEB - Communaute Electrique du Benin CEET - Compagnie d'Energie Electrique du Togo CIMAO - Ciments de l'Afrique de l'Ouest CTL - Centrale Thermique de Lom6 FAC - Fonds d'Aide et de Cooperation OTP - Office Togolais des Phosphates SBEE - Societe Beninoise d'Electricite et d'Eau SNS - Societe Nationale de Siderurgie, Togo VRA - Volta River Authority, Ghana 1/ The CFA Franc (CFAF) is tied to the French Franc (FF ) in the ratio of FF 1 to CFAF 50. The French Franc is currently floating.  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF BENIN REPUBLIC OF TOGO POWER ENGINEERING AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrowers: People's Republic of Benin; Republic of Togo Beneficiaries: Communaute Electrique du Benin (CEB), Societe Beninoise d'Electricit4 et d'Eau (SBEE), and Compagnie Energie Electrique du Togo (CEET) Amounts: Benin: SDR 1.7 million (US$1,815,000 equivalent) Togo : SDR 1.8 million (US$1,985,000 equivalent) Terms: Standard IDA terms. Bank/IDA would reserve the right to refinance the proposed Credits under a future Loan/Credit for a project in the power sector. On-Lending Terms: To cover the cost of the additional geological and detailed engineering studies included in the project, US$1.5 million of the total proceeds of the two credits would be on-lent to CEB for 20 years, including a 3-year grace period, at an interest rate of 11.6% per annum. The remaining US$2.3 million, to cover the cost of general studies of the power sector in Benin and Togo, would be transferred as grants to CEB (US$1.45 million), SBEE (US$0.34 million) and CEET (US$0.51 million). The foreign exchange risk would be borne by the Governments. Co-Lender: French Fonds d'Aide et de Coop6ration (FAC) Project Description: The objective of the project would be: (i) to help the Govern- ments complete preparation of the Nangbeto hydro-electric project; (ii) to help prepare regional and national energy plans and improve overall planning in the power sectors of Benin and Togo; (iii) to provide assistance in institu- tion-buiding, and to strengthen accounting systems and proce- dures. The project would specifically include: (a) additional geological and detailed engineering studies related to the Nangbeto hydroelectric scheme; a study for population resettlement; hydraulic model tests; technical evaluation of the proposed Nangbeto project by an engineering review board; assistance This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  - ii - for prequalification of contractors and suppliers; preparation of bidding documents; and assistance in bid evaluation. 1/ (b) studies to assess and strengthen the organization, management, finances, accounting, and training capabili- ties of the three beneficiary agencies. (c) tariff studies to help these agencies review their current policies; (d) audits of CEB and CEET (an audit of SBEE will be financed under a proposed Water Supply Engineering Credit approved by the Executive Directors June 25, 1981); (e) technical studies to strengthen the planning capabilities of CEB, CEET and SBEE, including prepara- tion of master plans for distribution in Cotonou and Lome, and a survey of potential hydroelectric energy resources. There are no significant technical risks associated with the proposed studies. The major risk is that the project being prepared might prove to be premature if the anticipated growth in the demand for power does not materialize. Estimated Cost: The estimated cost of the project, exclusive of taxes from which it is exempt, is as follows: Foreign Local Tot'al ------- (US$ millions)----------- Additional geological, detailed engi- neering and population studies, and technical assistance for procurement 2/ procedures - Nangbeto hydro scheme 2.13 0.07 2.20- Power Sector Studies 0.28 0.02 0.30 Tariff Studies and Audits 0.47 0.03 0.50 Planning Studies 1.09 0.11 1.20 Base Line Cost 3.97 0.23 4.20 Price Contingencies 0.73 0.07 0.80 TOTAL PROJECT COST 4.70 0.30 5.00 1/ These studies are being financed in part under PPF Advances totalling US$800,000, which would be refinanced under the proposed Credits. 2/ Includes refinancing of advanices under the PPF.  - iii - Financing Plan Foreign Local Total (US$ millions) IDA 3.8 1/ - 3.8 FAC 0.9 - 0.9 CEB, SBEE, CEET - 0.3 0.3 TOTAL 4.7 0.3 5.0 Estimlated Disbursements from Proceeds of the Two Credits FY82 FY83 (US$'000) Annual 2,550 1,250 Cumulative 2,550 3,800 Rate of Return: Not Applicable Staff Appraisal Report: None Map: IBRD 15657 11 Includes the refinancing of advances of US$800,000 equivalent fronm the Project Preparation Facility.   INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT CREDIT TO THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF BENIN AND A PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF TOGO FOR A POWER ENGINEERING AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed Development Credit to the People's Republic of Benin for SDR 1.7 million (US$1,815,000 equivalent), and to the Republic of Togo for SDR 1.8 million (US$1,985,000 equivalent), to help finance a Power Engineering and Technical Assistance Project. The Credits would be on standard IDA terms. Part of the proceeds of the two Credits would be re-lent by the Governments to the Communaute Electrique du Benin (CEB) for twenty years including three years of grace at 11.6% per annum, and part would be made available as grants to CEB and through CEB to the Societe Beninoise d'Electricite et d'Eau (SBEE), and the Compagnie Energie Electrique du Togo (CEET). Additional financing for the project is being provided by the French Fonds d'Aide et de Cooperation (FAC) in the form of a grant of US$0.9 million equivalent. PART I - THE ECONOMY BENINV 2. The latest economic report on Benin (Report No. 2079-BEN, entitled "The Economy of Benin", was circulated to the Executive Directors on May 31, 1979. The paragraphs below are based on this report, but include updated information. Annex I (a) provides basic country data. Introduction 3. After independence in 1960, a period of instability characterized by frequent changes in Government prevailed until the revoluion of 1972 which brought to power the military Government of President Kerekou. The new regime immediately took steps to replace foreign dominance in the modern sector and strengthen the Government's involvement in the agricultural sector. These measures initially disrupted the economy since there was an inadequate number of trained Beninese to replace the departing expatriates. Yet the Government also pursued conservative financial policies which resulted in budgetary surpluses and the maintenance of the debt service ratio at less than 7 percent. 1/ The text of this section is essentially the same as that included in the President's Report for the Cotonou Water/Sanitation Project (P-3083-BEN) which was approved by the Executive Directors on July 9, 1981.  -2- 4. Benin has since enjoyed a comparatively long period of political stability under a tight centrally-controlled one-party system. Following the adoption of a new constitution in early 1980, Lieutenant Colonel Mathieu K6rdkou was confirmed as President of the Republic for a three-year term by the National Assembly. President Kdr4kou has in turn appointed a civilian- dominated Government. 5. The nation is poised for a period of moderate growth propelled by major investments in the industrial sector. But Benin's near-term prospects should be assessed with caution because they are dependent on a few key factors: the Nigeria and Niger markets, success of industrial projects, and the continuation of a prudent budgetary policy. Recent Economic Developments 6. With a population of 3.4 million people and a per capita GNP of $250 per arnum (1979), Benin remains one of the least developed countries as defined by the United Nations. Over the 1976-80 period, the country enjoyed an average real GDP growth rate of 4.6 percent, and a sound public finance position due to a prudent budgetary policy. Exports more than doubled from $133 million in 1976 to $306 million in 1980, but are little diversified (mainly oil palm products and cotton). Nevertheless, because of high and rising imports, a large resource gap (20 percent of GDP) was recorded over the 1975-80 period, according to Central Bank statistics. However, the gap is actually smaller due to the substantial volume of informal, unrecozded 6,purLs, primarily to Nigeria. Also, an important part of the remaining shortfall is financed by a sustained inflow of workers' remittances and capital grants, leading to only a modest reliance on medium and long- term borrowing. 7. Agriculture, which employs about 70% of the population and generates about 40% of GDP (1980), has not substantially increased its output over the past decade. With respect to export crops, cotton peaked in 1972 at 50,000 tons, but has since fallen to around 15,000-20,000 tons. Palm oil production continued to increase until the mid-1970s, but output has been reduced since a severe drought in 1976. Institutional changes, insufficient farmgate prices, lack of financial resources, and the absence of technical assistance, are the main reasons for the unsatisfactory performance of export crops. Foodcrop production, although beset by many of these problems, has fared somewhat better with sustained demand from Nigeria. The situation of the sector in general is slowly improving under renewed Government support through producer price increases, less interference with market forces, and better climatic conditions. 8. The industrial sector is still undeveloped due to a lack of skilled manpower, smallness of the local market, and institutional constraints. It employs less than 2 percent of the labor force, contributes 11 percent to GDP (1980), and consists mostly of processing of agricultural products and import-substitution activities. The sector achieved an 11 percent annual real growth rate during 1972-76, but declined to 5 percent during 1977- 80 due to a drop in demand from the Nigerian market. Currently, Benin is beginning to exploit additional natural resources through several major  - 3 - major industrial projects: the Onigbolo cement factory (limestone), the Save sugar plant, and the Seme offshore oil field (para. 14). 9. The tertiary sector (mostly transport, coimmerce and public services) employs about 40% of the labor force and accounts for nearly 42% of GDP. The port of Cotonou has traditionally provided access to the sea for landlocked Niger and the western part of Nigeria. The Niger traffic through Cotonou Port rose from 180,000 tons in 1973 to 529,000 tons in 1977. Total transit traffic including Nigerian traffic rose to a peak level of 900,000 tons in 1979, and then declined slightly during 1980. The Association is leading a group of cofinanciers in a major expansion of the port facilities. Public Finance 10. As a result of a prudent budgetary policy, Benin has been running current surpluses averaging about CFAF 4-5 billion during the last five years. The Government followed a conscious policy of controlling current expenditures (which showed no increase in real terms during 1972-79) through limits on salaries of civil servants, and holding down maintenance expenditures. It also derived increased revenues from the rise in cross- border trade with Nigeria, and from increased small-scale industrial activities (textiles, beverages). However, the overall budgetary position has been in deficit because of substantial expenditures on investments and Government lending in support of unprofitable state enterprises. 11. In 1980, the overall deficit of the Central Government rose to CFAF 15 billion, nearly four times the average level of the previous four years. This substantial shortfall was the result of the Government's efforts to mobilize resources for an accelerated implementation of the Three-Year Development Plan. The deficits have been financed mainly from external sources and domestic borrowing. 12. Prices have been kept under control, and the overall rate of inflation was limited to 9-10% in 1979-80. The increased economic activity induced by the start-up of major industrial projects is likely to exert continuous pressure on prices in the next few years, with an inflation rate of 11-12% projected for 1981-82. 13. The Government is committed to broad-based socio-economic policies, but a key concern hitherto has been to keep wages and salaries low because of limited public revenues. In real terms, both public and private sector salaries have declined. Cash incomes of the farmers may have increased slightly, the losses resulting from the drop in cotton production probably having been made up by increased exports of maize to Nigeria. Thus, Benin is one of the few countries in Africa where the urban-rural income gap has not widened in recent years. Development Planning and Issues 14. A three-year Plan (1979-80) was issued in October 1977, setting out the Government's economic goals. Its stated objectives are to raise the general standard of living, to strengthen national economic policies and to promote broad participation in the conception and implementation  of economic and social changes. Investment allocation in the Plan favors large-scale projects. The major items are: the Cotonou Port extension (US$50 million) financed by IDA and seven other agencies; a 40,000-ton sugar project at Save (US$210 million); a 500,000-ton cement plant at Onigbolo (US$159 million); and the Seme off-shore oil production project (US$120 million), estimated to yield a total of about 11 to 20 million barrels. These projects together account for some 50% of Plan investment. Work on the Cotonou Port is far advanced. The sugar and cement projects are joint ventures with the Nigerian Government, with Nigerian marketing and financing guarantees. The production of sugar, cement and oil should commence around 1982. 15. In fact, the rate of implementation of the Three-Year Plan has been less than 50% of Plan objectives. Major difficulties include inadequate project preparation and coordination, delays in obtaining foreign financial commitments, and insufficient control over project execution. Recently, however, the Government has succeeded in accelerating commitments from foreign aid donors, and total public investment is likely to be some US$750 million in the five-year period 1978-82. This represents an increase in the public investment rate from 10% during 1972-77 to 19% in 1978-82. Economic Prospects 16. The medium-term economic outlook in Benin is for real GDP growth during 1981-85 of the order of 5-6 percent per annum. The risks to Benin's economy are a slackening of export demand and the negative impact of bottle- necks which may arise in implementing the large industrial projects. The benefits from these projects are, in turn, dependent upon price agreements (with Nigeria in the case of cement and sugar). Benin's agricultural growth prospects, moreover, will depend on effective pricing and marketing poli- cies in the rural sector. In the long-term, Benin's growth potential will be limited by a weak resource base to perhaps 4% per year; and even the achievement of this rate will depend on the ability of Government to channel resources and orient national programs (for example, in social and economic infrastructure, training, marketing) to the development of production of both food crops and cash crops. 17. Benin's public finance and balance of payments situation may fluctuate more over the next five years than has been the case in the preced- ing half-decade. In the mid-1970s conservative public policies led to budget surpluses and a stable trend in foreign reserves. This partly reflected, however, the lack of sizeable new initiatives in public investment. The situation is now changing with the increase in public investment which places heavy demands on the Treasury for counterpart funding, and steps up the pace of capital and intermediate goods imports matched by foreign financial inflows. The balance of payments will undergo fluctuations between now and 1985 under the impact of the major projects. Since the large projects underway will heavily influence the trade balance and public finances, their successful implementation is essential for Benin's medium-term outlook. 18. Benin's total external debt (including undisbursed), which until the end of 1980 had remained relatively low (amounting to US$425 million with a debt service equivalent to 4.5% of the country's exports), is expected to rise substantially as investments and borrowing conditions harden. The debt service ratio is projected to exceed 20% of exports in the mid-1980s.  The ratio is high, but up to 80% of the debt service is accounted for by the large projects, two of which are guaranteed by Nigeria. 19. In view of Benin's low per capita income, the growing need for external funding of priority projects in an expanding economy, and the narrow export base, it will be necessary to increase the volume of foreign financing on concessionary terms. Benin is expected to be able to finance no more than 10-15 percent of its overall public investment program; thus foreign donors should continue to provide a large share of total project costs, including some financing of local costs. I/ TOGO-/ 20. The most recent economic report on Togo, Report No. 458a-TO, entitled "Current Economic Situation and Prospects of Togo", was issued on December 30, 1974. Economic missions visited Togo in 1978 and 1980. Their findings are incorporated below and in Annex I (b) which contains basic country data. Introduc tion 21. Togo has enjoyed political stability since 1967 when a military government came to power. General Eyadema is President, but the Government is entirely civilian. President Eyadema is also Chairman of the RPT (Rassem- blement du Peuple Togolais), the country's sole political party. Togo's external policy, in the spirit of the Lome I and II Conventions, favors regional and international cooperation. Economic Performance 22. Togo is a small country (56,000 km ) with a population of about 2.4 million and a per capita GNP of US$340 (1979). Phosphate mining has been the principal source of foreign exchange earnings, accounting for an estimated 39% of export revenues in 1979/80, and receipts from phosphates represent nearly 30% of government revenues. 23. Slow growth and increasing financial disequilibria were the salient features of the Togolese economy during the 1975-80 period. The slow growth represented a deceleration from historical growth trends, and was the result of a drop in phosphate production and exports in 1975 and a recovery to full capacity thereafter, and of stagnation or decline in the production of export crops. The 1974/75 boom in world phosphate prices contributed to a substantial increase in export earnings and Government revenues, and prompted the Government to adopt an ambitious Development Plan for 1976- 80. 24. Growth in real GDP averaged less than 3% per annum during the 1975-80 period. Gross domestic expenditure outpaced production with the result that the resource gap widened significantly through 1978. Due to the rapid increase in public investment, gross domestic investment rose sharply to exceed 50% of GDP in 1978, but declined to an estimated 21% in 1980, as growing fiscal constraints necessitated a cutback. 1/ The text of this section is substantially the same as in the President's Report for the Phosphate Engineering and Technical Assistance Project (P-3084-TO) which was approved by the Executive Directors on June 23, 1981.  - 6 - 25. In the primary sector, accounting for 30% of GDP and 80% of employ- ment, growth has been limited by inadequate investments and extension services, insufficient price incentives, and occasional droughts. Although Togo relies largely on traditional production techniques, it is generally self-sufficient in food crops, except during serious droughts. Yet the relative neglect of agriculture has meant that only tiny portions of the cultivable land benefit from fertilizers, insecticides, and selected seeds. Yields are consequently low. Production of export crops, mainly cocoa and coffee, has been hampered until recently by less attractive producer prices and by aging trees with declining yields. 26. The secondary sector experienced drastic swings during the 1975- 80 period. Production of phosphate rock slumped badly in 1975 due to a recession-induced decline in demand, but recovered almost completely during the following two years. The massive investments channelled into industrial projects did not boost real GDP on account of the little, or occasionally even negative, value added of several new industrial units. Construction went through boom and bust as output doubled between 1975 and 1978, because of greatly stepped-up investment, and subsequently declined to the 1975 volume. From a peak of 10,000 in 1978, employment in construction was cut to 4,000 in 1980. The capital-intensive nature of many investments led to an increase in demand for energy, most of which is met through imports of electricity and petroleum products. 27. In the tertiary sector, recent growth was concentrated in public services and financial activities. The rapid increase in public services was caused by substantial recruitment into the civil service which increased by 75% to 39,300 during 1975-80. The growing size and sophistication of the banking system accounted for the rapid expansion of financial activi- ties, while economic activity in private transport and commerce, which are little affected by public intervention, expanded more in line with the rest of the economy. public Finance 28. In 1975 current revenues of the Government nearly doubled to CFAF 33 billion as revenue from phosphates tripled from CFAF 4 to 12 bil- lion. In 1976, the first year of the third Five-Year Plan, the Government embarked upon its expansionary program just when the phosphate market col- lapsed. However, while phosphate prices fell, output rose and--supplemented by higher import duty receipts--current revenue nevertheless continued to rise. Although current expenditure also increased rapidly, mainly due to a rising wage bill, a sizeable surplus was left to finance investment and debt service. 29. Public investment (in current prices) of the Administration, state enterprises and agencies increased from CFAF 30 billion in 1975 to CFAF 88 billion in 1978, and continued at the still high but reduced rate of CFAF 51 billion in 1980, as disbursements were made on projects being implemented. In part because of the heavy reliance on foreign financing, which was often project-tied, the investments undertaken differed greatly from those foreseen in the 1976-80 Development Plan. Compared to its prede- cessors, the Plan had placed more emphasis on rural development and, to  a lesser extent, on social services. However, during implementation major shortfalls were experienced for these categories, while more than planned was spent on infrastructure, tourism and industry. 30. Much of the foreign borrowing was undertaken on commercial terms to finance the investment programs of newly-created state enterprises, which upon their completion were unable to service their foreign debt. This situation led to the assumption by the Treasury of a rapidly rising debt service burden. By 1977/78 debt service had risen to such an extent that the Treasury had accumulated sizeable arrears, and in 1979 the Togolese authorities negotiated a financial program with the IMF, and a rescheduling of debt obligations was obtained through the Paris Club. Togo adhered scrupulously to the new terms, but even with the debt relief, available resources were severely strained during 1980, when CFAF 14 billion (25% of current revenues) had to be allocated to debt service. Because of the short-term nature of the agreement, amortization and interest due by the Government would have amounted to CFAF 37 billion (over 50% of current revenues) in 1981. Togo therefore undertook a second round of debt negotia- tions, and in February 1981 an agreement was reached on the rescheduling of most of Togo's debt due in 1981/82. In February 1981 the IMF approved a stand-by arrangement in the upper credit tranches in support of the Govern- ment's financial and economic program for 1981/82. The program aims at further reducing both the deficit in the current account of the balance of payments and the budget deficit, and at strengthening management of existing state enterprises and implementing a selective investment policy. Development Planning and Issues 31. The Fourth Development Plan (1981-85) recently approved by the National Assembly, sets forth the Government's goals in general terms: promoting industrialization through the development of small-scale enter- prises; promoting rural development in order to reach self-sufficiency; developing transport and improving the maintenance of the road network; developing research and human resources; and promoting regional develop- ment. The total amount of the Plan's "priority program"--CFAF 250 billion- -is, however, substantially in excess of the resources likely to be avail- able, given the debt service burden now facing the Government. In recogni- tion of this fact the Togolese authorities have undertaken to revise the Plan, excluding projects whose implementation is doubtful and concentrating on those with adequate rates of return. Further, the five-year period will be divided into two tranches, the first corresponding to the time of great- est financial strain and providing for much reduced capital spending plans, and the second allowing for some expansion. 32. With respect to public enterprises, the Government has established a new Ministry of State Enterprises and Industry, which has begun a prelimi- nary review to identify their problems and prospects. At Government request, a Bank mission visited Togo in March/April 1981 to advise on a course of action, incuding the closing of certain enterprise activities in appropriate circumstances.  -8- Economic Prospects 33. In the 1981-85 period, the outlook is for average annual real GDP growth of about 3.5%, i.e. an increase in GDP per capita of about 1% per annum. Growth is expected to become more evenly spread among the sectors but still highest in the secondary sector due to expanding mining operations and higher industrial production from existing plants. The modest improve- ment in projected growth will not relieve unemployment which will be aggra- vated by the number of new entrants into the labor market. The pursuit of less expansionary policies is expected to lead to a substantially smaller resource gap and higher domestic savings. 34. In agriculture there is scope to increase the output of both food and export crops, and growth is projected to be about 3% annually between 1981 and 1985. More resources allocated to food crops to modernize production techniques, and the beginning of returns on IDA-supported cocoa and coffee replanting schemes will be the main reasons for the more rapid growth in agriculture. Investment would be concentrated on relatively high- yielding schemes in food crops, cotton and other cash crops. 35. The outlook for the secondary sector between 1981 and 1985 is mixed, with growth on the order of 5%. Production and export of phosphate rock is expected to continue to increase in response to world demand. Since, in addition, the Bank-supported CIMAO clinker project is expected to approach full capacity utilization, overall output in mining is likely to increase significantly. In manufacturing, the Government's intention to adopt remedial policies to redress state enterprises is expected to overcome the stagnation of this sector. Growth in construction will be modest or nil because of financial constraints, while the energy sector will be boosted by projects and policies to replace electricity imports by domestic production. In the tertiary sector, the severe financial con- straints facing the Government will limit growth in the output of public services. Growth in transport and commerce is, on the contrary, likely to quicken on the assumptions that Togo will be better able to organize its transit trade to benefit from existing infrastructure, and that--as in the past-- the sector will continue to be largely unaffected by Govern- ment intervention. 36. Notwithstanding the debt rescheduling in 1981, the 1981-85 period will demand judicious policies to balance the need to meet rising debt service obligations with the need to maintain a minimum development effort, in particular in 1983 when debt servicing reaches a sharp peak. Except for enclave-type operations, there is no scope for additional borrowing on financial markets, and even with a lower level of investment, foreign financing, especially on concessionary terms, will be required. Government finances will be extremely tight during the beginning of the period, requir- ing austerity in current expenditure and highly selective investments. Toward the end of the period, rising revenues from phosphates and a moderate acceleration in economic growth will begin to ease the financial constraint, although low net capital inflows will put pressure on the balance of pay- ments, requiring further recourse to balance of payments assistance. With the restoration of a sounder financial situation, Togo's longer term develop- ment prospects remain quite promising and there is considerable scope to exploit the resource base of the economy.  - 9 - PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN BENIN AND TOGO BENIN 37. To date the Bank Group has extended thirteen Credits to Benin, including two supplementary Credits, totalling $107.6 million. Four of the Credits helped finance agriculture projects with emphasis on develop- ment of cotton and foodcrop production, and support to the cooperative system, as well as major technical assistance efforts to strengthen mana- gerial and technical performance of national agricultural institutions. 38. Five Credits have supported Government's activities in the highway sector. Operations have included construction and rehabilitation of import- ant sections of the country's main trunk road and of other paved and gravel roads; a major effort in feeder road development; and strengthening and expansion of the road maintenance program, including elimination of backlog resurfacing works. Also in the transport sector, an ongoing port project includes provision for increased berth space, as well as improved cargo handling and storage capacity, and technical assistance to improve port operations. 39. In education, a first project to expand support to the non-formal sector and emphasizing vocational training is almost completed. A second project now under preparation would focus on teacher training for primary, secondary, and technical schools, and local production of teaching materials. IDA is also providing assistance to small-and medium-scale enterprises through an FY80 Credit to the national development bank (Banque Beninoise pour le Developpement - BBD). In addition to making available resources to BBD through 1982, the project provides for strengthening the institution's management and its capacity to promote small- and medium-scale investments. 40. An FY81 Credit to Benin, for a Water and Sanitation Engineering Project, will address the most urgent needs of Cotonou in this sector, and help define and implement long-range objectives and strategies. The remainder of the planned program for the next several years is devoted to continuing work in sectors with existing IDA activity, and initiating Bank Group support in oil exploration, urban development, and in the import- ant power sector as proposed in the present project. TOGO 41. Bank Group lending to Togo totals eleven Credits amounting to US$90.6 million, and two loans totalling US$53.0 million for the CIMAO project (a loan of US$3.5 million to Togo, and one of US$49.5 million to CIMAO jointly and severally guaranteed by the Ivory Coast, Ghana and Togo). Togo is the host of the CIMAO project, the largest regional industrial venture undertaken so far in West Africa. Implementation of this US$284 million clinker project, financed by the Bank and seven other official aid agencies, has been completed, and production started in March 1980. To improve CIMAO's cost structure, a project to convert the installations from oil to coal firing is being considered.  - 10 - 42. Four of the Credits were in the road sector, with efforts directed to building up an efficient maintenance service, upgrading the country's main and more heavily trafficked roads, and the start of a comprehensive transport planning and coordination system. A separate project for feeder road development provided for effective improvement works and maintenance operations on this network. 43. The objectives of the four agricultural projects partly financed by IDA Credits are to increase foodcrop production and farm income through development of cash crops such as cocoa, coffee, and cotton. As part of a sector-wide rehabilitation effort, a Bank Group mission visited Togo in March 1981 to examine the scope for sectoral reforms which could be achieved through a large-scale cotton and foodcrop project; it is planned that this operation would incorporate a strategy to help overcome the slow growth of output and incomes in the rural sector. 44. An important objective of Bank Group lending to Togo is also to help develop the country's large mining potential to increase its foreign exchange earning capabilities, to strengthen institutions in the main economic sectors, and to support the training and education system. An FY79 techni- cal assistance project to the Ministry of Planning, aimed at helping the Government formulate sound investment and public finance policies, is now well underway. An FY81 Engineering and Technical Assistance Credit will help to determine the technical and economic viability of developing a phosphate fertilizer project in Togo. 45. Annex II contains a summary statement of Bank Group operations in Benin and Togo, as well as notes on the execution of ongoing projects. PART III - THE POWER SECTOR 46. Benin and Togo are endowed with abundant forests, and firewood constitutes the main source of non-commercial energy, while charcoal is becoming the preferred fuel for domestic consumption in urban areas. How- ever, the high demand for firewood, combined with the effects of several droughts in recent years, have cast serious doubts on the long-term availa- bility of this precious resource. An off-shore oil field has been identi- fied in Benin at Seme, which is expected to produce within two years about 4,000 barrels per day of crude oil; in Togo, exploration is being actively pursued. The undeveloped hydroelectric potential of the two countries is estimated at 2,000 GWh per annum. Although 22 sites suitable for hydroelec- tric power production have been identified, there has been no systematic inventory of these energy resources, nor any attempt to rank them. The proposed project includes financing for such an inventory and ranking in both countries. 47. Currently almost all (about 95Z) electricity consumed in Benin and Togo is imported; the remainder is produced locally, using imported oil. In 1980, the two countries imported 440 GWh of electrical energy from the Akosombo hydroelectric plant in Ghana (para. 50), and 260,000 tons of petroleum products and crude oil. Firewood and charcoal consumption  - 11 - for the same year is estimated at 2.2 million tons and 61,000 tons respec- tively. This represents a total energy consumption for 1980 of 955,000 tons of crude oil equivalent (TOE) or 165 kg. of oil equivalent per capita, one of the lowest rates in the world. 48. The coastal regions of Benin and Togo are experiencing a sharp increase in electric power demand as a result of industrialization and rapid development. Peak demand and energy consumption for the two countries have increased at an annual rate of 17 and 15 percent respectively over 1975-79. A major concern for the two Governments is to preserve scarce forest resources and to meet the rapid increase in energy demand, while reducing the risks associated with dependence on imported power and minimiz- ing oil imports. The Governments have therefore been seeking to develop alternative sources of energy and, to that end, are giving high priority to formulating national energy plans to determine the most rational develop- ment and use of various energy sources. Technical assistance to be provided under the proposed project would help in formulating such plans. Institutional Framework 49. The energy sector is under the responsibility of the Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy in Benin, and the Ministry of Public Works, Mines, Energy and Water Resources in Togo. Since 1968, Benin and Togo have been associated in a common power development program through the establish- ment of a bi-national agency, the Communaute Electrique du Benin (CEB), which has its head office in Lome and is run by a General Manager under a seven-member bi-national agency, the Communaut4 Electrique du Benin (CEB), which has its head office in Lome and is run by a General Manager under a seven-member bi-national council at the ministerial level. 50. CEB's activities are regulated by a treaty, the "Daho-Togolese Code". CEB's main purpose as detailed in the "Code" is to provide all new power generation and transmission facilities in the two countries, and to operate them on an industrial and commercial basis. In 1969, CEB began the construction of a trunk transmission system for Benin and Togo, and under a contract signed the same year by the Governments of Benin, Ghana and Togo, CEB was guaranteed power supply by the Volta River Authority (VRA) of Ghana from the 762MW Akosombo power plant. The contract provided for supply of up to 50MW for 15 years beginning in 1973; this limit was increased to 67MW in 1979, when the CIMAO clinker plant in Togo started operations.l/ CEB has therefore been supplying bulk electric power imported from Ghana to the two national public utility companies: Societe Beninoise d'Electricite et d'Eau (SBEE) and Compagnie Energie Electrique du Togo (CEET), as well as to large consumers in Togo such as CIMAO, the Office Togolais des Phosphates (OTP), and the Societe Nationale de Siderurgie (SNS). In the field of power generation, however, CEB has so far not received clear support from the two Governments for integration of power generation facilities, and there has been a lack of coordination for thermal power generation (para. 56). The proposed project provides for preparation of a master plan for power generation and distribution for Benin and Togo, thereby helping to establish a clear policy regarding overall responsibi- lity for coordination of these operations. 1/ CIMAO (Ciments de l'Afrique de l'Ouest) 90% owned in equal parts by Togo, Ghana and the Ivory Coast, and 10% by private French interests. CIMAO operates a 1.2 million ton clinker plant at Tabligbo, about 65km northeast of Lome in Togo.  - 12 - 51. CEB's staff totals about 160. It is a fairly well run company, and since it started operations, quality of service has been good. However, management activities so far have been limited to running a power trans- mission system, with its related substations. CEB's staff has no experience in managing the construction and operation of a large hydroplant such as the proposed Nangbeto hydroelectric project (paras. 62 and 72-74). The proposed Engineering Credit includes technical assistance to help CEB assess its needs related to implementation and operation of the Nangbeto project, and provides for the design of an appropriate training/recruitment plan for its staff. 52. The Compagnie Energie Electrique du Togo (CEET) was created in 1963 as a joint stock company, with the Government holding 70% of capital shares. It operates, de facto, as a State agency, since the 30% of capital shares reserved for the private sector have remained unsubscribed. CEET is responsible for power distribution to low-voltage customers and to small industries, under supervision of the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of State Enterprises. CEET's main source of power supply comes from Ghana through the CEB transmission system, which provided just over 90% of total energy available to the company in 1979. CEET also operates a standby diesel plant in Lome, and several smaller diesel plants in secondary centers. 53. CEET lacks qualified staff for all phases of its activities. Salaries are low, a fact which hampers recruitment and retention of quali- fied personnel. Distribution and production facilities have not been properly maintained, while the rapid expansion of CEET's activities, particularly during the last five years, has posed considerable difficulties for its management. The proposed project provides for implementation of a study to review CEET's problems in organization, management and personnel, includ- ing measures for improving present plant maintenance practices. 54. The Societd Beninoise d'Electricite et d'Eau (SBEE) was legally established in 1973 as a national enterprise to plan, construct, operate and maintain power and urban water supply facilities throughout Benin. In the power sector, SBEE (like CEET), mainly distributes power supplied through the CEB transmission system and from its own standby diesel plant in Cotonou, as well as a number of smaller diesel plants scattered through- out the country. SBEE is a fairly well organized public utility which is conscious of giving good service to its customers, and which has competent key personnel in both the power and water functions. Staff training is being actively addressed at two separate personnel grade levels. The German Aid Agency (GTZ) is currently providing a training program for technicians and semi-professional staff, while IDA is planning to finance scholarships and additional training for professional staff under the Cotonou Water/Sanitation Engineering Credit which was approved by the Executive Directors on June 25, 1981. Existing Power Facilities 55. CEB owns and operates the transmission system in Benin and Togo which consists of: (i) a 161 kV double circuit line (168 km long) linking Lome, Mome-Hagou and Cotonou to Ghana's VRA system; (ii) three substations: LomO (161/20 kV-32MVA), Mome-Hagou (161/63 kV-30MVA), and Cotonou-Vedoko (161/15 kV-32MVA); and (iii) two 63 kV lines (totalling 34 km) connecting  - 13 - to secondary cities (Tabligbo and Habotoe). Main generating facilities in Togo are operated by CEET and OTP. CEET facilities consist of four diesel electric groups in Lome with a total capacity of 24.3MW, used as standby power and for peak load situations, and an additional 8.4MW capacity in nine provincial centers. OTP has a 15MW diesel electric plant, which has been used as standby power since 1979 when OTP was connected to the CEB network. 56. In 1978 the Government of Togo, in order to reduce the country's almost total dependence on imported power from Ghana, decided to buy a 120MW turnkey thermal power plant, the Centrale Thermique de Lome (CTL). The plant is being installed at Lome's harbor, with completion currently scheduled for end-1982. Once completed, the CTL plant will include two gas turbines of 25MW each, four diesel units totalling 40MW, one steam turbine of 28.7MW with a boiler heated by exhaust gases from the two gas turbines. The gas turbines have been in operation since mid-1980, while the remaining components of the plant are still under construction. The CTL plant is connected to the CEB transmission system, and is currently operated by the Societe Nationale de Siderurgie (SNS). However, the Govern- ment recently decided to entrust its operations to CEET. The proposed pro- ject includes a study to integrate CTL into Togo's power sector. 57. The existing distribution system in Lome is severely overloaded as a result of rapid urbanization and population growth, particularly the increase since 1978 in the number of industries and hotels in Lomd and its environs. Distribution losses have increased to more than 20%. CEET has prepared a distribution program to help address these problems, but the program is not yet well defined. The proposed project provides for preparation of a master plan for distribution of electric power in Lom6, including identification of priority works. 58. In Benin, SBEE operates a 17.6MW diesel plant in Cotonou, and diesel units totalling 3.7MW in four provincial centers. The power distribu- tion system in Cotonou consists of 15 kV radial feeders, starting from the CEB Vedoko substation, which can be tied in through several switching substations at different points of the city. 59. The growth of demand in Cotonou and in the coastal area as a whole has imposed heavy loading on the distribution system. This, along with a rise in unmetered power, accounts for a rapid increase in distribu- tion losses (about 25i); in addition, there are large areas on the north side of Cotonou (5 km with about 40,000 inhabitants) which have no access to electricity service. The most affluent people, however, have built their own low-voltage extensions, on precarious and dangerous structures, due to lack of distribution facilities. As in the case of Lome, SBEE needs assistance in preparing a rational distribution program, and the proposed project provides for preparation of a master plan for distribution of elec- tric power in Cotonou, including identification of priority works. Power Market 60. Energy sales by CEB have more than tripled to 290 GWh over the period 1972-79. Most recent growth rates were 15% over 1977/78 and about 37% over 1978/79. However, the growth rate should decline by 1982 with  - 14 - the effects of a general economic slowdown and the possible implementa- tion of new power tariffs. VRA has announced its intentions to triple its rates to CEB. 61. In 1979, CEET sold an estimated 129 GWh of energy to about 24,000 customers, of which 119 GWh (about 93%) to about 19,000 customers in Lome and the coastal area. Similarly, 90% of SBEE sales are to 15,000 customers in Cotonou and the coastal area. Over 90% of the power sold by CEET and SBEE is provided by CEB. Power Sector Planning 62. The connection of new industries in Togo over the past two years has increased the demand for power by about 30% in 1979 and 40% in 1980. This high rate of demand increase is expected to continue until 1982, due to major development projects coming onstream, but would then drop to a lower annual average rate of about 10% through 1989. Total coincident peak demand of the integrated Togo/Benin electric system would increase from 83.5MW at end-1980 to 153MW in 1985, and an estimated 201MW in 1989. To meet this demand, Togo and Benin are expanding their generat- ing facilities by (i) installing at the CTL plant four diesel units of 1OMW each and a 28.7MW steam turbine; and (ii) adding two diesel units of 8MW each at the Akakpa plant in Cotonou. In addition, the two Govern- ments plan to start the construction of the 63MW Nangbeto hydro scheme on the Mono River (148 GWh annual generation) by early 1983. This plant is intended to cover the deficit of firm power expected to arise by 1986, and to help reduce generation costs, particularly from imported fuel. 63. With Nangbeto in operation by 1986 as planned, the peak demand/- capability balance of the Togo/Benin integrated system is projected as follows: Actual Forecast 1980 1986 1987 1988 1989 Peak power demand, MW 83.5 168 179 189 201 Firm cara i--, MW (without Nangbeto) 85.0 160 160 158 158 Balance, MW (without Nangbeto) 1.5 (8) (19) (31) (43) Firm capacity, MW (with Nangbeto) 85.0 205 205 203 203 Balance, MW (with Nangbeto) 1.5 37 26 14 2 Note: ( ) means negative figure Meeting the peak demand forecast for 1986 through 1989 would be ensured by bringing in Nangbeto. However, as the above table shows, under the power demand growth here assumed, further generating capacity would need to be installed by about 1990. We would propose to seek assurances from the two Governmnents in any project to finance the construction of the Nangbeto dam, that no additional thermal generating units would be installed without appropriate consultation with the Association. Tariffs 64. Tariffs applied by CEB consist of a fixed charge, a charge per kWh, and a charge per KW of the monthly peak demand. Compared to the cost for any available alternative supply, CEB's tariff is very low (equivalent of USV2.2 per kWh). The tariff structure reflects the marginal cost of  - 15 - power supply at the time the contract with VRA was signed in 1973; but since CEB is already planning new facilities to respond to growing demand, the tariff structure will need to be reviewed. CEB has also been distribut- ing energy produced by CTL since 1980, and in accordance with a temporary agreement implemented in December 1980, CEB pays for CTL's staff salaries and for the fuel it consumes, passing on the corresponding additional cost to Togolese consumers. In order to establish the basis for more satisfac- tory and permanent financial and legal arrangements between CTL and CEB, the tariff study to be implemented under the proposed project will also assess the economic contribution of the CTL plant to the CEB power system. 65. CEET tariffs have been unchanged since 1967. The low-voltage tariff has a declining block pattern with prices for energy varying from the equivalent of US011.2 to USJ7.4 per kWh. There is also a special tariff for air conditioning, public lighting, and commercial and small industrial use. In addition, CEET charges a meter fee and a maintenance fee which both depend on meter rating. Larger industrial consumers pay a fixed charge related to their suscribed power, and the price of energy varies from the equivalent of US05.6 per kWh for peak hour consumption to US03.0 for off- peak consumption. In May 1981 CEET was authorized by the Government of Togo to apply a tariff increase averaging about 45%. However, this adjust- ment will only serve to alleviate present financial difficulties. It will still be necessary for CEET to define a medium-term tariff policy taking into account the results of the proposed study of CEB's tariffs (para. 66), its own generating forecasts, and ongoing and planned rural develop- ment schemes. 66. The power and water tariff structure now applied countrywide by SBEE has not been adjusted since 1966. Tariffs for domestic consumers are applied in block pattern, with rates ranging between US010.0 to US012.8/kWh equivalent. Special tariffs are charged for commercial consumption, for air conditioning, and for public lighting. For high-voltage deliveries, there is a fixed charge of CFAF 1,250/kW (US$5.0), and a charge for energy of CFAF 13.5 (US05.4) per kWh consumed. There is a special tariff for inter- ruptible service to industries, at the same rate, but with no fixed charge. A reassessment of SBEE's tariff structure and study of its power charges as proposed under the present project has become necessary, among other reasons, because of the increasing cost of energy to SBEE already reflected by CEB's tariff increases, the development of thermal-generated power in rural areas, and the need for new generating equipment to satisfy steadily increasing demand. Moreover, the proposed reassessment would help SBEE and the Government in their ongoing tariff negotiations. All tariff studies for CEB, CEET and SBEE would be carried out by the same consulting firm, to be selected by agreement between these entities and in consultation with the Association (draft Project Agreement, Section 2.02 (e)). Financial Performance 67. Available information shows that the financial situation of CEB and SBEE has been generally satisfactory, but that CEET's is weaker. Total energy sales by CEB in FY79 amounted to CFAF 1.6 billion (US$6.4 million) of which about 50% to CEET, 30% to SBEE and the remaining 20% to industrial customers. Sales in FY80 increased sharply to CFAF 2.5 billion (US$10.0 million), due essentially to new industrial connections. CEB's total revenue  - 16 - has generally exceeded operating expenses (including depreciation plus interest), except in FY78 when CEB delayed by six months a tariff adjust- ment to reflect an increase in VRA prices. Net income after interest and depreciation in FY79 was CFAF 109 million (US$0.4 million). Long-term debt as of December 31, 1979, mostly incurred on concessional terms from CIDA (Canada), was CFAF 3.0 billion (US$12.0 million) and there has not been any significant change in FY80. In FY79 the debt-equity ratio was 71:29. Debt service in FY79 was CFAF 37 million (US$0.15 million), and maximum annual future debt service calculated on year-end 1979 debt will be CFAF 142 million (US$0.6 million). The conventional debt service coverage ratio calculated for FY79 over the maximum future debt service was 2.7. Due to the sharp increase in revenue in 1980, while operating expenses rose more moderately, CEB's financial performance improved in FY80. Customer accounts amounted to about 3-4 months of billing at year-end 1977 and 1978, increased to about seven months in 1979, but by mid-1980 had dropped to about three months. In spite of cash drain difficulties, CEB has been able to pay its suppliers regularly, and payables to VRA do not exceed two months of billing. 68. CEB's accounts are reviewed annually by Government auditors, but these reviews have been limited in scope and depth. The proposed project provides for a full audit of CEB's FY80 accounts, and a review of its accounting systems and procedures by independent auditors acceptable to the Associa- tion (draft Project Agreement, Section 4.02). 69. The latest available financial information for CEET relates to FY79 when total operating revenues were approximately CFAF 2.5 billion (US$10.0 million). Sales to low-voltage consumers amounted to CFAF 1.5 billion (US$6.0 million) and sales to small industry at medium voltage accounted for the remaining CFAF 1 billion (US$4.0 million). In recent years, CEET has regularly shown a positive net income after depreciation and interest, but this performance remains to be assessed by independent auditors. As of September 30, 1979, receivables represented about six months of billing, and available information indicates that this amount has increased sharply during FY80 when, for example, Government arrears more than doubled over 1979/80 from CFAF 600 million (US$2.4 million) to CFAF 1.4 billion (US$5.6 million). The company's long-term indebtedness amounted to CFAF 2.8 billion (US$11.2 million) as of September 30, 1979; at that date, pay- ables were CFAF 3.2 billion (US$12.8 million). As a result of its cash difficulties, CEET failed to service its debt in FY79 and FY80. To ensure availability of a comprehensive analysis of CEET's finances, the proposed Credits include financing for an audit of CEET's FY80 accounts, and a review of its accounting systems and procedures by independent auditors acceptable to the Association. 70. SBEE operates in both the power and water sectors. At present it does not record its water and power operations separately, and the finances of the two sectors must still be considered as a whole. For FY80, SBEE's revenues from electricity sales were CFAF 2.0 billion (US$8.0 million) and from water sales CFAF 0.7 billion (US$2.8 million). Total revenue ex- ceeded cash operating expenses plus debt service. The operating ratio for FY80 was 63%. Net fixed assets of CFAF 4.1 billion (US$16.4 million) at the end of June 1979 were entirely covered by share capital and reserves. Long term debt was only CFAF 1.4 billion (US$5.6 million) at the end of  - 17 - FY79, and the ratio of debt to equity was 24:76. The debt service coverage ratio was about 6. SBEE's cash position has been weakened by slow collec- tion of customer bills, especially from the Government. The total of water and power customer arrears at end-June 1980 amounted to CFAF 1.4 billion (US$5.6 million) for the Government, and almost the same level for private customers, equal to about 18 and 7 months of billing, respectively. SBEE's financial problems will be addressed following the independent audit of its 1980 accounts, and the review of its accounting procedures and finan- cial management, planned for implementation under the Water/Sanitation Engineering Project, which was approved by the Executive Directors in June 1981. Bank Role 71. The Bank Group's objectives in the power sectors of Benin and Togo are to: (i) help both countries plan the development of their generation, transmission and distribution facilities to meet the rapid in- crease in power demand, reduce their dependence on imported power through development of domestic hydro resources, and extend elec- tric service to larger segments of the population; (ii) help strengthen existing institutions and rationalize organiza- tion of the power sector, and improve overall financial and techni- cal management of CEB, CEET and SBEE: and (iii) strengthen cooperation in the power sector between the two countries. PART IV - THE PROJECT Background 72. The planned Nangbeto project is a regional undertaking by Benin and Togo to develop the hydroelectric and irrigation potential of the Mono River, which forms the border between them for 100 km. from the Atlantic coast northwards. The interest in the project dates back to 1964 when a study of the hydroelectric potential of the Mono River was carried out by consultants Sofrelec of France. In 1976, CEB entrusted the updating of Sofrelec's study to Electro-consult of Italy. This new study led to identification of the Nangbeto site and preparation of a pre-feasibility study for a multipurpose hyroelectric, flood control, and irrigation develop- ment project for Benin and Togo. At that time, however, project implementa- tion was judged premature. The power component did not seem justified considering the relatively small power requirements of these countries, which at the time could be met more economically from diesel plants or imported power from Ghana. In 1978 UNDP agreed to finance a feasibility study assessing the hydroelectric potential alone; IDA was appointed as executing agency. The feasibility study was carried out by consultants Electrowatt/Sogreah (Switzerland/France).  - 18 - 73. A meeting of potential donors was held in Paris in June 1980 to review the results of the feasibility study. The meeting concluded that: (i) the construction of a 63MW hydroplant at Nangbeto, producing 148GWh annually, based on a concrete buttress dam, was technically feasible; (ii) at a total estimated cost of about US$120 million, it was the least-cost solution compared to thermal power alternatives to satisfy electricity demand of Benin and Togo beginning in 1986; and therefore (iii) further project preparation was warranted. 74. During the June 1980 donors meeting, the Association and the French Fonds d'Aide et de Cooperation (FAC) indicated that they would consi- der financing the necessary detailed engineering studies and preparation of bidding documents for the construction of the Nangbeto hydroelectric scheme. A financing agreement between France and CEB was signed on February 6, 1981, and in March 1981 FAC made available to CEB FF 4,500,000 (US$0.9 million equivalent) to cover part of the detailed engineering studies and bidding document preparation. In February 1981, IDA made available to the Governments of Togo and Benin two advances of US$400,000 each under the Project Preparation Facility. Under terms and conditions satisfactory to the Association, technical services for detailed engineering and bidding document preparation were negotiated with Electrowatt/Sogreah in December 1980, at a fixed contract price equivalent to US$1.5 million. The studies and the draft bidding documents have been reviewed by CEB and the Association and been found acceptable. A second donors meeting is scheduled for mid- October 1981 to review the final project documents and determine a tenta- tive financing plan. 75. The proposed Engineering and Technical Assistance Project would finance studies to complete preparation of the Nangbeto hydroelectric scheme. It would be the Association's first operation in the power sector in Benin and Togo. The project was appraised in February 1981. Negotiations were held in August 1981 with a Beninese delegation headed by H.E. B. Ohouens, Minister of Industry and Energy, and a Togolese delegation headed by H.E. Y. Grunitsky, the Ambassador to Washington. There is no Staff Appraisal Report. Annex III contains supplementary project data. IBRD Map 15690 shows the location of the main power centers in Benin and Togo. Project Description 76. The proposed project would consist of: (i) assistance to CEB in completing the engineering design studies for the Nangbeto hydroelectric scheme, including additional geo- logical investigations; hydraulic model tests; assistance in monitoring and evaluating the studies through a panel of indepen- dent experts; assistance in preparation of tender documents, prequalification of contractors and suppliers, and bid evaluation; and preparation of a plan for resettlement of the population expected to be displaced by the proposed construction works;  - 19 - (ii) assessment of the organization, management, finances and train- ing/recruitment needs of CEB, CEET and SBEE, together with a comprehensive plan for meeting them, and a study for the integra- tion of CTL into Togo's power system; (iii) audits of CEB and CEET FY80 accounts by independent auditors (audit of SBEE accounts is to be financed separately under the Cotonou Water/Sanitation Engineering Credit); (iv) assistance to CEB, CEET, and SBEE through coordinated tariff studies, to review their tariff policies to take account of devel- opments in the power sectors of Benin and Togo; (v) assistance to CEB, CEET and SBEE in strengthening their planning capabilities through technical studies covering: (a) master plans for distribution of electric power in the cities of Cotonou and Lome, including identfication of pri- ority works; (b) survey of potential hydroelectric resources, including identi- fication and ranking of priority sites; and (c) a master plan for development of power generation and transmission in Benin and Togo, taking into consideration possible regional interconnection and results of the planned hydroelectric survey. Project Cost and Financing 77. The total cost of the proposed project (net of taxes and duties from which it would be exempt) is estimated at US$5.0 million equivalent, of which US$4.7 million is foreign exchange. Consultants services for detailed engineering studies and assistance in procurement preparation are estimated to cost US$1.5 million for 150 man-months, including all travel and related consultants' expenses. This represents an average of US$10,000 per man-month, which is in line with IDA's experience in West Africa for this type of studies. The remaining general studies, estimated to require 200 man-months of consultants services, have also been estimated to cost US$10,000 per man-month, for a total cost of US$2.0 million. Geolo- gical investigations, to be sub-contracted by the consultants, are estimated to cost US$0.7 million. Price contingencies are estimated at US$0.8 million. 78. The proposed Credits totalling US$3.8 million (including US$800,000 for refinancing the PPF advances) would cover about 72% of total project costs. The remaining costs (US$1.2 million) are covered by the FAC grant to CEB (US$0.9 million) and by contributions of CEB, CEET and SBEE to cover local costs (US$0.3 million). CEB has provided assurances as to the availa- bility of local funds and similar assurances from SBEE and CEET will be included in the financing agreements to be concluded between these agencies and CEB (draft Project Agreement, Section 2.01(b) and para. 2 of the Schedule, respectively).  - 20 - 79. The entire proceeds of the two Credits would be made available to CEB. US$1.5 million (to cover the cost of the detailed engineering studies and bidding document preparation for the Nangbeto Project) would be on- lent to CEB by the Governments for a term of 20 years, including a three- year grace period, at an interest rate of 11.6% per annum. US$1.45 million (to cover the cost of general studies for the power sectors of the two countries) would be passed on to CEB as a grant. The remaining Credit pro- ceeds(US$0.85 million), to finance general studies of the two national power utilities, would also be passed on by CEB as grants to CEET (US$0.51 million) and SBEE (US$0.34 million). The amounts of the IDA Credits corres- pond for Benin to 50% of the funds to be employed directly by CEB plus 100% of the funds to be used ultimately by SBEE; and for Togo, 50% of the funds to be employed directly by CEB plus 100% of the funds to be used ultimately by CEET. On this basis, the Credit to the Government of Benin would be for US$1,815,000 equivalent and to the Government of Togo for US$1,985,000 equivalent.l/ Execution of Subsidiary Loan Agreements between the Governments and CEB, and of financing agreements between CEB and CEET and SBEE respectively, under terms and conditions satisfactory to the Asso- ciation, would be a condition of effectiveness of the proposed Credits (draft Development Credit Agreements, Section 5.01). 80. CEB will act as coordinator of the Engineering and Technical Assistance Project, and will be responsible for processing and channelling all disbursement requests to the Association (para. 84). The proposed alloca- tion of the Credits is shown in the following table: Allocation of IDA Credits (including contingencies) (US$ thousands equivalent) CEB CEET SBEE Total (i) Detailed engineering studies and 1,500 - - 1,500- technical assistance - Nangbeto (ii) Studies for improvement of the 100 170 120 340 organization and management of the power sector institutions, including their financial management (iii) Audits 60 120 - 230 (iv) Tariff Studies 110 110 110 330 (v) Master plans for distribution for - 110 110 220 Cotonou and Lom6, and priority programs (vi) Inventory and ranking of hydro- 840 - - 840 power sites in Togo and Benin (vii) Master plan for power generation 340 - - 340 and transmission 2,950 510 340 3,800 *J Includes refinancing of $800,000 under PPF advances 1/ BENIN: $ 750,000 CEB loan TOGO: $ 750,000 CEB loan $ 725,000 CEB grant $ 725,000 CEB grant $ 340,000 SBEE grant $ 510,000 CEET grant $ 1,815,000 $ 1,985,000  - 21 - Retroactive Financing 81. Retroactive financing (estimated at up to US$475,000 from the Benin Credit and up to US$645,000 from the Togo Credit) is recommended to cover expenditures incurred since February 1, 1981 for preparatory studies to allow appraisal of the Nangbeto project to proceed as scheduled. These studies consist of distribution Master Plans for Cotonou and Lome including identification of priority works; and the management, financial and tariff studies, and audits, all part of the proposed Engineering and Technical Assistance Project (para. 80, items (ii) through (vii)). CEB has arranged with CEET and SBEE for prefinancing of these studies. Project Execution 82. CEB would have overall responsibility for project execution under the terms of a Project Agreement with the Association. CEET and SBEE would be responsible for direct implementation of their respective parts of the project under financing agreements with CEB, which would spell out the studies to be performed under the responsibility of the two institutions (draft Development Credit Agreements, Section 3.01(b), and the Schedule to the draft Project Agreement). 83. As indicated previously (para. 74), the consortium of consultants which carried out the feasibility study for the Nangbeto hydroelectric scheme is also responsible for the detailed engineering studies and prepara- tion of tender documents. To assure an independent expert review of the detailed engineering designs, CEB would employ a panel of experts with qualifications, experience and terms of reference acceptable to the Associa- tion (draft Project Agreement, Section 2.02(a)). For the remaining project studies, CEB, CEET and SBEE would also employ power utility consultants and experts with qualifications and terms and conditions of employment acceptable to the Association. Independent auditors for the remaining studies would also be acceptable to the Association (draft Project Agreement, Section 2.02(b). Disbursements 84. Proceeds of each of the IDA Credits would be disbursed to cover: (i) refinancing of amounts due under the PPF advances; (ii) 100% of foreign expenditures for the parts of the project to be carried out by CEET and SBEE; and (iii) 50% of foreign expenditures for the parts of the project to be carried out by CEB. Disbursements for (ii) and (iii) would be fully documented. Disbursements to cover CEB expenditures would be made pari passu from the two Credit accounts. The Governments would designate CEB as authorized signatory for purposes of preparing and submitting withdrawal applications under the proposed Credits (draft Development Credit Agreements, Section 2.08).  - 22 - Benefits and Risks 85. The benefits of the proposed Engineering and Technical Assistance Project would essentially be: (i) to obtain pre-construction designs and tender documents which meet the Association's requirements, and which would permit sound offers to be obtained in the international competitive bidding planned for the Nangbeto hydroelectric project; (ii) to further prepare the Nangbeto hydroelectric project by streng- thening the institutions in the power sectors of Benin and Togo which would have ultimate responsibility for managing the project; and (iii) to plan the efficient development of an electric system covering both countries, with optimum use of local energy sources. 86. The major risk is that the project being prepared might prove to be premature if the anticipated growth in the demand for power does not materialize. However, as far as the present Engineering and Technical Assistance Project is concerned, there are no significant technical risks associated with the proposed studies. Nevertheless, CEB has accepted the Association's suggestion that the detailed design of the Nangbeto hydro power system should be monitored by a panel of experts of international repute selected in agreement with the Association, and whose services are financed under the proposed Credits. The panel is to be constituted by experts in dam foundations, design of power dams, design of electrical systems, and socio-environmental aspects. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 87. The draft Development Credit Agreements between the People's Republic of Benin and the Republic of Togo and the Association, the draft Project Agreement between the Coumunaute Electrique du Benin (CEB) and the Association, and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section l(d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Association, are being distributed separately to the Executive Directors. 88. Features of the draft Development Credit Agreements of special interest are mentioned in the text and referred to in Section III of Annex III to this Report. A special condition of Credit effectiveness would be the execution of Subsidiary Loan Agreements between the Governments and CEB, and of Financing Agreements between CEB and CEET and SBEE respectively, with terms and conditions acceptable to the Association (para. 79). 89. I am satisfied that the proposed Development Credits would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association.  - 23 - PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 90. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Development Credits. A. W. Clausen President Washington, D.C., October 8, 1981  Annex I (a) - 24- Page1 UNIN - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET BENIN REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVEgAGES LAND AREA (THOUSAND SQ. KM.) - MDST RECENT ESTIMATE)- TOTAL 112.6 MOST RECENT LOW INCOKE MIDDLE INCOME ACRICULTURAL 10.2 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA GNP PER CAPITA (US$ 90.0 120.0 250.0 238.3 794.2 ENEIGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRANS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 39.9 54.0 67.5 70.5 707.5 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS OPULATION, MID-YEAR (THOWANDS) 2049.8 2645.6 3425.0 URBAN POPULATION (PlRCENT OF TOTAL) 9.5 12.6 13.9 17.5 27.7 POPULATION PROJECTIOIS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 6.5 STATIONARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) 19.0 YEARl STATIONARY POPULATION IS REACHED 2110 POPULATION DENS ITY PER SQ. KK. 17.7 23.5 30.4 27.7 55.0 PER SQ. KM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 204.6 264.0 326.7 73.7 130.7 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 44.1 45.3 46.0 44.8 46.0 15-64 YRS. 53.3 52.0 51.3 52.4 51.2 65 YES. AND ABOVE 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.9 2.8 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 2.2 2.6 2.9 2.6 2.8 URBAN 5.8 5.4 3.9 6.5 5.1 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 50.5 49.2 48.7 46.9 46.9 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 26.5 21.9 18.5 19.3 15.8 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.2 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) .. USES (PERCENT OF MAIRIED WOKEN) .. .. FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PMODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 95.0 101.0 97.0 89.5 89.9 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIRMNTS) 93.0 96.0 98.0 90.2 92.3 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 51.0 53.0 51.0 52.7 52.8 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 14.0 15.0 13.0 17.8 16.1 CHILD (AGES 1-4) DRRTALITY RATE 41.0 32.2 25.4 27.3 20.2 IEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT RIRTH.(YEARS) 37.2 42.4 46.7 45.8 50.8 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) 206.0 .. ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. 21.0 23.9 27-4 URBAN .. .. 50.0 55.0 74.3 RURAL .. .. 16.0 18.5 12.6 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 14.0 .. 26.2 URBAN .. 83.0 .. 63.5 RURAL .. 1.0 .. 20.3 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 23031.3 28447.1 26883.3 31911.8 13844.1 POPULATION PER NUSING PERSON .. 2860.1 3035.9 3674.9 2898.6 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 747.6 846.9 735.5 1238.8 1028.4 URBAN 538.1 231.6 393.9 272.8 423.0 RURAL 779.5 2185.5 1134.6 1745.2 3543.2 AlltISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. 30.2 17.7 HOUSINI AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. .. AVERAGE NUMLER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL .L URBAN RUNAL .. .. ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. ..  Annex I (a) - 25 - Page 2 BENIN - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET BENIN REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVEBAGES - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE)- HOST RECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 26.0 40.0 60.0 56.4 73.7 MALE 38.0 55.0 78.0 70.7 96.8 FEMALE 15.0 25.0 42.0 50.1 79.0 SECONDARY: TOTAL 2.0 5.0 12.0 10.0 16.2 MALE 2.0 8.0 18.0 13.6 25.3 FEMALE 1.0 3.0 7.0 6.6 14.8 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (Z OF SECONDARY) 13.0 4.1 6.0 8.0 5.3 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY 41.0 44.0 55.0 46.5 36.2 SECONDARY 23.0 26.0 31.0/d 25.5 23.6 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 8.0 11.0/e .. 25.5 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND - POPULATION 1.0 4.6 5.4 2.9 32.3 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 12.2 32.1 46.5 32.8 69.0 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. .. 0.1 1.9 8.0 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL, INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 2.0 0.8 0.3 - 2.8 20.2 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA 0.2 0.4 .. 1.2 0.7 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 1048.9 1285.7 1572.2 FEMALE (PERCENT) 45.4 45.1 44.2 34.1 36.7 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 54.0 49.7 46.4 80.0 56.6 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 9.0 11.8 15.5 8.6 17.5 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 51.2 48.6 45.9 41.7 37.2 MALE 57.1 54.3 52.0 54.3 47.1 FEMALE 45.5 43.1 40.0 29.2 27.5 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 31.4/c HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 51.7Tc .. LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 5.57 .. . LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 15.87 .. . POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. 136.0 381.2 RURAL .. .. 84.0 84.5 156.2 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. 99.1 334.3 RURAL .. .. 82.0 61.2 137.6 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. .. 39.7 RURAL .. .. 65.0 68.8 Not available Not applicable. NOTES /a The group averages for each indicator are population-weighted arithmetic means. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /b Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1976 and 1979. /c Population; /d 1975; Ie 1973. May, 1981  - 26 - Annex 1(a) Pa.e 3 DEFlI"TIONtS OF SOCIAL, ItiCATORS naooonallyooepaeahle heceoco of th-el-ackof , ~ e d.l. Th.edat. ars n~ thele-o -tfol so dec-ohe oroe- ci egnit-de, ndod-boo -oodo, and tar -tooteoan cl-ndiff.... setenutre Tfoenofrreor groopoae linhesan ,..otpttupfohoeuhetoto,dl totr roonhoehthghboog ttsnt-totyto oe(ortt of therootonts Otignop tea ote fo thtitdl ao E t11: Eoo oh btonaregd1of r-.ni.e aetna thA 0tene opnso teaatelln tfd and tenouotfore.oeutoonstat teeartooednneletcneoerege ofosgdtoto no iote .h-teenroge 7-.oternlyuo-ullcedarc.. heol. eo fntai - fonl oorf ot are o-n-ictog land are end on:aoodatt-re. -ob-n end r-rl) 3 iided hr fhie- reto-i-eoobor of hospital baos Agyilolt-nl -tnE. n oftoblnra ari used ornyotarly orpnaenpttlbeI uln ndpoot oeo n OI11lr hos, a e r ion onope . enNants. na(ort anf blohan gatdrnsor no I it ollro; 1970data, habIt tiecyn centpo NyepitulinreenatlisbonoI 97nmdtnoly staffe hyat Iee one phyttolar. -rth leeeteon dict~ Pr Ot Ielytt- (US$t011c t) -IP-10cpIetnlonse coo nre oa i- flu otr antto in lIa.. tocal hoepitl,orcn inlde et ouaodb cs -onoi oho,f a- -Wordno One 177-79bss 19th. end tadi,,a c-nnne rot pr--non ifonffed hty phyobia ho b 171C. an S1919ac. ced at eat is-to, nonse. d-fe, m-) etioh offerinptin a:,-- da-o ant poontdeelt s.i- range of nedhoeI teotliasa. Ftnos tttRif CON(tSLTION PER CAPITA - Aoncal -ocpt-cn ciof er c noogy Ico ...lpoparore P hosptal Onld Wipioiegoos hspitals, endlitin, ptnooo.nauya dcathydc- niireIcd tonnrmoeo ado-n1lhnspolz.looeIcr_u_clb.sita leeoasod .os ..td _aernly timy) inoogotoccloaarrn po ipta.(90 1970." adI --- eosa Spiptcllod hospinalo aeIttlaed only odrttl total Pocilation. foid-Toan obcad)-d f (cly 1; 0997, 1970, ocd 1979 tottlnl date. eog hoot of Ho-ehbld (roroone reth hocannoid - t-nl, -bst, and n-rl- tO rn_n dof oiniono of -nb-tra ar af_e c.....railifp of data and chon ca_on o.te. 0 _oondo no lodge - n0oa n_0beinodedin _. __ _ 1997. 1970. any 1779 dana. the tocoobtid ton Innato _opoa_t yojoio oe ttr 2O -ct.. nonlty re -to .s.nia o b ..e dsno a19a0 000-0 peddpres len.S adfsl i teierfny bib-ho at, 77.1. pay. Tho pat-. tenc oe otl roat d-e1in tty.i itnin qutters -a-ar1eag Eerr irittt cyrae inhone ineaeaesotgidn too!oe.ohn nd rural deall irsrseiey fortiloo I rodiog noi- moo e 1r and past fonily pl..nringpeDfCrAaIoN cod Orl _tyn dno fco P'oj _cicn Adjisted Lrolnttoi-a h-onlan-r op...an-i - Iniaaint cc o 'onheo ... no g. t since.Pnern ethool - total, sle aoi female - Gross onoa, e,elssd femal the, loot1 refe Io -oo to cho dauh rat, end a..lsoti ge orotar-sooieofal ge at the pointy (ca as pareoag ..f se ..is Ib I ach,en-d only afe0 erii- ee ds-llne tpoar sho-ee opento or ly inolodes hildeo ge 6-11 oho replacenenolnl fit ot-orooan-onae her tarOt aeer on..n ban adlieted for different Iseths of ptisry edioseica.; for cf esen oples isoltan-cl The staionary poplan ionsla 0 toony.e..th .it e edooto atoien a esosd 100 p-_sa eocndothhssofna10enaotroeteooTIroPoyclanico inocos .PopIs ert ha,loso n the offtie aa.sI age to one yea 2000, and nte --t of d20010 of f-noit- tots to neplo- bant.d-or -toni-oal.e o fem&ale - Cmae ,s shoe; -modery neon- le-oedl. ed.ioetn- PP~.t..tootq.ioe a beet..Int Yer of epprond pti.eytaacota Yea atetionr ooa o onoce h enoe ca oeypnlno p-oideegert anotior.., or- neah-rosoe "Itntio a P.Oei eL-e baa bean reahed. ..illy of 121.t if years of ega; -otrepooda.e narsen eatIly Pen an- m.-PId-pa .ccato pnt..e.cloee (lIt h-rt-ne) of V.to = -lnol .ro .mei ip-ra- of -soonero - no..aInoaI Ioatteatea total ara 1967. 091 7ad0( o i-olade 1e-hsi-e.hdorol.rtbt prgrem ahIob opers.t.e id sd - Peono.trolialend - Co..r.teda tcnE. gco ioiolnr-laInd -clyp-oasfdpa-rtmenoetosYionnto on 960lfi, 1977 ard 1970daa Pn0tl-teeobe ratio -n y, r. ao ae-oda-n Intel staeeeerild "P'la tonga toioon (pe--onI Chotada (i-lW -eer) - cking-igs (11- primarty end senodary lenale dotded by sam-r oftapreooh 60, years ). d0 retired Y.. .. yaoadco-n) peonae fni-erP000- ...r.spotdtolsnel.' 1cotco (1960. 19,7. end 9197 dane. gdo1t ltteroyr - reoet7- L.iotetetsd,u1t (eble to reed sad arias) Ioaato ..oeh late foco-eno - totl - A Rnoa h -rnors of total sod- asprta-tge of total odo,tpo1 lno gsd 10 faeet se ver perpnpoa_i_n Eon 1951-tO, 1960-71,0 nd1970-79. Popot.ietn bosch Rao '(goorono -, orbon- -il groth -1-r of orba popo- CONSUMPT!ION (anion f-n 1950-hf, 1960-7i. And 1970-79 Passae- Care fret thoaedrelno)-Pesee asnmrs ae populetoct; ifti, 1907.- bicc.1979thdo.o..dil itay...os-irles. C-ode leanth Mote (n houacrd9- On-1a dants pen tho.....da of cid-yece tRdhi R..einsosp oybtha....dAlllaio -01 types of receiver for rle rpaio;1960lOO , and1 -I97 9 dana. bond- ssn Mssa atn a baedtf po iltto;aocs a Or.aa ter-d-oIt-o R toe -tyna bnhno aghooreosa. sill boat Jn !ictea o_ atse nooitt a to f-y -ra ab: rgisrt-ins of radio lte,o-men...oad-in- perIod if aeaeinrspe og-aPeifir fa- ossasnoff t; date!ftroott Y...synomog.rhaip oil lop rates; ostoe lip fine-year ananegaseo.::ding in 1960, 1970, end 1079. scat... ooieore abolished ttotg Paeilllaoito-oieotrn.tc...alinboesss(- __oal.oa _anf a_npa.tr Pi Iat lb.e.ra, -rrhasoetlation-T- reoin-e ftrhbnsd.etsea of bireh- -oool d-ientc coden acapite of -aicoa.l family PIat..lIg p-ogtse. g..sarel poblir Petobame popalerto-; aaide lite....d V.. ratatear FamIly Pla-oioe-Oatafrreo f seriad noaI - Perreeag ofeared iooaetesnd in Yse b. netsr_etion of TVse se .i sffmta. .il carie co...n itb, saeeagcp-Naeto i.Cf 'dal gaIrI totoee neepapar', dsiode a erode poblitoetto denote d primarily to --todieg geosre ese It i.to n adered FO0D AND NUTRIoTION no he 'deily' if in sopsans at loeso lfoot rIse a Indee of Food yrod-cto eoayo (1969-71-10O0) Iodea of p-r capita .e..... CInema onoa AedateH pa CY_t a ea-ao mth s to pnd.to o l od cndnr. Po.c-o ettesar an feed end n ton soddrtgten er ieoladisgdedmiesl...stodrive-ia lieeea is notod y-po bao7a. CosedIitte c_o nisony goodo(g. agarer end eabile -elts. icnradof ,a,,I oh ih ant edi~ble end I-nonuneos(..cffer and 0 0 olded). Iggoego- pr-d-ttico ofot toty absd o iC natIonal __enge prd... poir oigos 1916 1970,..ad 1979 dote. Total Lbo- Po-ca itbia..ata) - too-mtely soi-t pseam. ise1adi.g Pen cipitasnI fclota(sro nO titneqi-oneta Co..paed foo- arme for.... cd e,employd.bat ...oladingbaeae,sods 0. onoy oq,icio of nI-odapye nileble in onatr e opt oeoe ooetto l ae. ifinitie = is netoat... hes re_ it.oalha crlsrepiedoai .oodo,..n. isponoP,sestot. toparble; 196O. 1070 end 1t79 deta. onono,ao ohoog-no (ool-k. tN- aoppl iea a-1Iod ania feed aed,ymoe(aosn emleo foro as penng of tota laborfoo -dan ote fo d or o --ocesco, and (ose.n.... hoto. aair Aerioc-tor toapat I -lao rsifrmn,forestry toeagam 000 eo a mnd by yAO hate d on_ofyaioogi-al nee ds fon norma ati- fishing as p-enecege of total laben forns; j960. 19ff0 sad'1934 da.- cloy and health ocosidering annononmonno( netc~~p--acc, body Iegre grP -aty (peroson) - Cabot fnoato iig oerota easte and a... an thoti-- of ,pcyulanio so loig 7pntnPo asod 1serrtiy,cIee ndpas pensaso aa lbrfrs 96 hooeol ocl;i9itS 177 nd197 aa.190d o 1939 nd data. Pe r I't o l of poone.i (arom per dsp) - Protet ---rn of Pen -pinetriiatn ieinre total ae ae .am ..n........m. 0 ne spply of fnod per day. Net eapply nO food J. deftited as abm.- Re- eniiyaase-te ste,ml,sd femei tato- f..rres. qoit__nn fcr. al --inrtt -tbliehed by 7910 pronide for ini-i peno-tagas of to-l, sle end femal ~pplatita of all ages r-peetiesly; elcoerce of 60 g.a.. of ..nt p-onrin pro day And 2I gnos of animal aod 1960, 1979. end igO7 dens. Thass see based on Pin's partitipatlm rees ruise opooin, of !bioh I0 Sam oboold he-1 a Ina pnt., Tbhass seesd- eaflant ig age-se.ar tiret of ohs oieno,end long tine r-d.A onm - oteina nnngE fo the otrld. ynp-a-d hrAC in thr Third fo...osin peedes-y Pai at fpoaaioifr13ed' Mna W-oO oo ho- ey lOtl-t;. 10071 ad (9,77 data. to the tonal Iahb- f--r nior Oto onima a nd pu1ara in gr-as Pen dey; 1960-65, 1970 and 1977 dot. INClIN DlTISt"RIB7I0 Child (aaes (-o I r lito hate loot tho..sand) - Annual deaths Po ho....nd in -Pare.e.. o..f Prinate Jnom ihoth to -e1, end bind) - iR-ei-sd pniobest agE. group 1-4 poars, nocildre, nti age. g.oty; fot noond-nelpingron- 5fperoer, rirh-s 20 parornt, poores t P0 ponoao. aed Psre t f "paF-sm or~os data deriord loon cite ouhis; 09h, 1977 en 1979 daa fh_aeele Lie"peoenpn Birth (coco ..000 ober o Eano. .f life re-ining The foliostg a in" te r "Irapromt -esie o on y isnals enhno,190t17 t oOh . 19729 data. sod shoold be `e-rpntad sith rooe.en-bl cantine. "neo'fn oY it I oa tho -d Aatroi deenhe cf infant under 000 Year Etima-d Abeolate P-etly Inro- Lna(1$pr o is -abs -e rta hen of people (tota. _rec and rual oitI _c bI ..rstoaeft affordable. -a-ocoptly (i-oludas - -t- onfr asn suoeee u nottaimt-d Etaimated tolatine P .... t bois Laa 1 (PiN..1 P5t oeit, - tba sad rtars - 00000 eob ee tot fro pronsotod honeho lee, spnngs, end ea.tirey.elie) ashRal. rolenive ponely tn-oa lon-I iso-hid ofiaverge Par r-pit. of thi .nepecic ~Popolanio-. Inec-ba-ne a .pobi I`Persosl lon-- of tobeno...try.ira ab el ta1 deemedfrot h aa fonetoo sanpsoloaedno on tat00 enr fonaho5eer e eelinodonsonfrhogbr oa nbinn toabdo area. 1 ......tbleont lieo pl cenen- f uplaho- toa- coan end ennaral -plti.(rbn- _~ .1 tiecoleotot nd tepoal-snt or aPlt hoot one Inoeno, of hoenetnd frnmi o tt- Pt insn andaeneeane h -anso-hor sye fthe -s of pit prrs Mn also- Sonaoaalasd Pnnjeti... Dpanarmat (e lat (looo..Stay 1981 fcoolooion oar Ohnotoian d oca citoidd hy nombr of prericlog physi- otao qaliie Prs aeelo-I school en- iealply rcilton00 oni ayrsc ooloind-rdad hoyoaenofporiIcg feaodtoltg-od-atnoaae nola aaen attnnoe  _ 27 - Annex I (a) Page 4 ECONOMIC INDICATORS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1980 ANNUAL RATE OF GROITH (7..CURUTT PRICES) US$ Million 7% of GDP 1975-80 GNP at Market Prices 1103.0 103.0 14.7 GDP at Market Prices 1070.9 100.0 14.8 Gross Domestic Investment 271.4 25.3 24.0 Gross Domestic Saving 20.3 1.9 Current Account Balance - 117.8 - 11.0 Exports of Goods, NFS 306.1 28.6 16.2 Imports of Goods, NFS 526.7 49.2 14.8 OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 1980 Value Added Labor Force Vl1- AAdA par X_V&Ar US$ Million 7 Thousand 7. US$ 7