Senegal - Power Engineering and Technical Assistance Project

Document of The World Bank FILE COPY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No.P-2761a-SE REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF SENEGAL FOR A POWER ENGINEERING AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT April 28, 1980 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit: CFA Franc (CFAF) US$1.00 = CFAF 210 CFAF 1 million = US$4,762 SYSTEM OF WEIGHTS AND MEASURES: METRIC 1 meter (m) = 3.28 feet (ft) 1 square meter (m2 ) = 10.76 square feet (sq ft) 1 kilometer (km) = 0.62 mile (mi) 1 square kilometer (km2) = 0.386 square mile (sq mi) 1 hectare (ha) = 2.47 acres (ac) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CIDA - Canadian International Development Agency CVCCEP - Commission de Verification des Comptes et de Controle des Etablissements Publics EDS - Electricite du Senegal EEOA - Compagnie de l'Eau et de l'Electricite de l'Ouest Africain FED - European Development Fund GNP - Gross National Product MIDC - Ministry of Industrial Development and Craftmanship MOF - Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs MOPA - Ministry of Planning and Cooperation SEIB - Societe d'Electricite Industrielle du Baol SEIC - Societe d'Electricite Industrielle de Casamaance SENELEC - Societe Senegalaise de Distribution d'Energie Electrique UNDP - United Nations Development Programme FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY THE REPUBLIC OF SENEGAL POWER ENGINEERING AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY BORROWER: Republic of Senegal AMOUNT: US$3.3 million equivalent TERMS: 10 years including 3 years of grace. The proposed Credit would be refinanced under a future Loan/Credit for a project in the power sector. PROJECT DESCRIPTION: The objectives of the project would be (i) to help Government prepare a national energy plan and improve planning in the power sector; (ii) to provide institu- tion building in the power sector; (iii) to improve accounting systems and procedures in the power sector; and (iv) to ensure a rational medium-term development of Senegal's major power generating facilities. The project would include: (i) a study to determine the optimal organization of the power sector, including proposals for the creation of a national entity to replace the two existing companies; (ii) financial studies and external audits of the existing companies for fiscal years 1979, 1980 and 1981; (iii) a design study of headquarters for the future national entity, to be followed by architectural specifications, preparation of bidding documents, and analysis of bids; (iv) the feasibility-study of the expansion of power generating facilities, to be followed by detailed engineering, preparation of bidding documents and analysis of bids; (v) a tariff study which would make recommendations on the structure and level of electricity tariffs; (vi) technical assistance to develop a national energy plan and improve power sector planning; and (vii) scholarships for energy planning. The Government is keenly interested in this project, and its full support, which will be needed in implementing recommendations from the various project studies, is expected. The project faces no special risks. ESTIMATED PROJECT COST: The cost of the proposed project is estimated at about US$4.0 million equivalent (tax excluded) with a foreign cost component of about US$3.3 million equiyalent. The Government has agreed to exempt the project elements from all taxes. The table below summatizes the cost estimates: | This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. /~  - ii - Local Foreign Total _____----- US$ O000------ Power sector organization study 5 75 80 Financial studies and audits 55 305 360 Design study of headquarters for future national entity 150 450 600 Feasibility study of generating facilities' expansion 75 675 750 Tariff study 50 200 250 Technical Assistance 220 650 870 Scholarships - 135 135 Base Line Cost 555 2,490 3,045 Contingencies 170 810 980 TOTAL PROJECT COST 725 3,300 4,025 Financing Plan: IDA Credit - 3,300 3,300 Government contribution provided by EDS/SENELEC's cash generation 725 _ 725 TOTAL 725 3,300 4,025  - iii - Estimated Disbursements: FY81 FY82 FY83 FY84 Annual 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.2 Cumulative 1.1 2.4 3.1 3.3 Rate of Return: Not applicable Staff Appraisal Report: None Map: IBRD No. 14976   INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF SENEGAL FOR A POWER ENGINEERING AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed Development Credit to the Republic of Senegal for the equivalent of US$3.3 million to help finance a Power Engineering and Technical Assistance Project. The Credit would be for 10 years including a grace period of 3 years, and would be refinanced under a possible Loan/Credit envisaged for a project in the power sector. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. A report entitled "The Economic Trends and Prospects of Senegal" (1720a-SE) was distributed to the Executive Directors on lIarch 10, 1980. The following paragraphs reflect the conclusions of this report. Country data appear in Annex I. Economic Structure and Past Developments 3. Senegal, at the western extreme of the African continent, has three-quarters of its territory in the Sahel zone which suffers froni low rainfall and periodic droughts. In the traditional sector of the economy, the mainstay is millet cultivation and nomadic cattle-raising for domestic consumption, and groundnut cultivation for exports. Soils are generally poor, and periodically food shortages occur in the months between the sowing and harvesting of the next crop. The large river basins -- some of them fed in the tropical rain zone -- have so far been exploited only marginally. Land distribution is fairly even. In the western part of the country arable land is becoming scarce, but in the extreme southeast some good land is still available. The modern sector of the economy is concentrated in Dakar, the capital, a city of about one million inhabitants, the economic base of which consists of excellent port facilities, an important industrial sector, and a small but fast-growing tourism industry. Senegal's per capita GNP for 1978 was estimated at US$340. 4. During the 1960s, the Senegalese economy experienced virtual stag- nation as real output increased at about the same pace as population, at a rate estimated at 2.7 percent per annum. Two factors were responsible for this situation. Firstly, with independence, Senegal lost its privileged position as the center of French West Africa, and subsequently had to adapt to its reduced economic, administrative, and political position. Secondly, in the latter part of the decade, production of groundnuts (its principal export) fell due to unfavorable weather and declining export prices. 1/ The text of this Section is substantially unchanged from the President's Report for the Fourth Highway Project which was submitted to the Executive Directors on March 18, 1980.  - 2 - 5. In the 1970s, Senegal's narrow-based export sector was hit by sharp fluctuations in volumes and prices, and even with the achievement of higher rates of both private and public investment, average annual growth was not raised above the earlier 10 years' level. Thus, output and incomes were depressed in 1972 and 1973 by the Sahel's most severe drought in over a century. Thereafter, when weather conditions improved and purchasing power of the rural population was substantially restored, both agricultural and industrial production increased markedly. However, in 1977 the country suffered another severe drought, the magnitude of which is reflected in the variations in groundnut crops; from a historical record of 1.45 million tons in 1975/76 (more than double the average for the 1968-73 period), output fell to less than 0.6 million tons in 1977/78; it recovered to about 1.0 million tons in 1978/79, but the most recent crop fell again, to less than 0.7 million tons. Despite these wide fluctuations in agricultural production, industrial output (excluding groundnut processing) did grow at a fairly even rate of about 5 percent a year. Thanks to the recovery from the earlier droughts, real GDP increased at about 5 percent between 1973 and 1977, but in 1978 it is estimated to have declined by 10 percent reflecting the effect of the 1977/78 drought, and, after recovery in 1979, is expected in 1980 to remain about 4 percent below its 1977 level due to the bad crops in 1979/80. 6. The large fluctuations in physical production were aggravated by price fluctuations of Senegal's major export and import commodities. In 1974, the terms of trade improved by over 21 percent, because of exceptionally high prices for phosphate rock, Senegal's second export commodity. However, in 1975 export prices for both phosphate rock and groundnuts declined sharply. The recent hike in oil prices brought a further deterioration in terms of trade, causing a loss in income of roughly 5 percent of GDP compared to the favorable year in 1974. These wide international price fluctuations, together with the above fluctuations in output, had serious consequences on domestic prices, public finance, and balance of payments. Public Finance 7. The Government has responded with flexibility in adapting its financial policies to changes in the economic environment. In 1974, the retail prices for rice, sugar, and groundnut oil were raised by 40 to 90 percent in order to reduce consumer subsidies that had increased substantially following the price hikes for these commodities on the world market. Government also brought producer prices for groundnuts closer to world prices which were particularly high at that time. The loss of revenue to the Treasury because of this latter step was expected to be compensated by additional revenues from phosphate production, in which Government increased its participation as well as levied an 80 percent tax on excess profits, which accrued from the quadrupling of export prices of phosphates in 1974. In 1974 and 1975, Government did indeed receive high revenues from phosphates amounting to roughly US$45 million a year, or 12 percent of tax receipts.  - 3 - 8. These steps led to a net increase in public savings after debt service from a yearly average of US$25 million during 1971-73, to US$46 million during 1974-76. This high level of public savings was doubtless an important factor in stimulating Government to increase public investment outlays from a yearly average of US$24 million to US$49 million during the same two periods. In addition, however, Government purchases of equity and lending to domestic enterprises increased sharply, mainly because of increased participation in the phosphate mine and the acquisition of two foreign-owned public utility companies. The combined capital outlays of the Government were thus substantially in excess of public savings, and were financed in large part through medium-term foreign bank loans. As a consequence, foreign debt service carried by the Central Government increased from US$8 million in 1972/73 to US$38 million in 1975/76, representing about 10 percent of Central Government revenues. 9. A sudden fall in world phosphate prices in 1976 eliminated Govern- ment revenues from this source. In the following year, Government increased taxes, limited recurrent expenditures, and undertook some new commercial borrowing for its investment program. When it became clear that the 1977/78 crop would fail, Government endeavored to avoid famine in the countryside by importing more cereals and absolving farmers' debts; however, the added financial burden which these measures entailed was accompanied by reductions in capital expenditures, which were financed through heavy commercial borrowing amounting to US$122 million in 1977 and US$200 million in 1978. As a conse- quence, in 1980/81, when grace periods are over, debt service obligations of the budget will reach about US$150 million (or 18 percent of Government revenues). 10. In August 1978, the National Assembly was called from summer recess to approve a new fiscal package amounting to US$20 million in additional revenues. The 1978/79 budget presented a tax reform that aimed at initiating removal of tariff distortions and administrative deficiencies, but which also increased Government receipts through reductions in exemptions. Further tax measures are in preparation for the 1980/81 budget which will bring the ratio of Government receipts to GDP to a very high 29 percent, as compared to 19 percent in 1970/71 and 23 percent in 1976/77. Balance of Payments 11. The balance of payments came under heavy pressure in 1973 because of low groundnut exports and increasing imports of foodstuffs and equipment goods, and Senegal's net foreign assets fell to minus US$15 million. In the following years, the deficit on current account was reduced, but outflows of private capital related to the acquisition of foreign enterprises continued, and net foreign assets declined further to minus US$48 million at the end of 1975. Since then, the situation has not improved. In 1976, the State Marketing Board purchased a record groundnut crop at the high producer prices established in 1974, injecting massive purchasing power into the economy and adding to the domestic demand resulting from the Government's  - 4 - monetary and budgetary policies, which in turn put added pressure on imports. However, because both groundnut and phosphate prices were at considerably lower levels in 1976, export revenues stagnated; even though there were price declines of the same order in some of Senegal's food imports, the net effect on the terms of trade was heavily negative. Although the 1976/77 groundnut crop was good, the balance of payments stayed in deficit. The 1977/78 drought caused a loss of US$200 million in groundnut revenues, but the Government's commercial borrowing limited the decline of net foreign assets to US$93 million. In 1979, the groundnut crop was good and Senegal received an alloca- tion from the EEC STABEX Fund of US$64 million as a payment for the shortfall in groundnut exports in 1978, but strong import demand, the terms of trade loss from the hike in oil prices, and the fall in groundnut prices, led to a further decline in net foreign assets of at least US$90 million,l/ reducing the level of these assets to minus US$236 million at the end of the year. These negative reserves were financed by outstanding drawings on the DMIF in an amount of US$52 million, by a change in Senegal's position in the monetary union, and through short-term foreign borrowing by the commercial banks. 12. Although exogenous factors such as droughts and variations in world market prices explain in part the fall in net foreign assets since 1973, it is also due to more perennial factors such as sluggish growth of export volumes, slow drawings on public aid commitments, increasing debt service related to heavy reliance on commercial funds, and excessively expansionary monetary and budgetary policies. Senegal's basic problem has been the failure of production and exports to respond to higher investment levels and other expansionary policies. Stabilization Program 13. In his annual speech to the National Assembly in December 1979, the Prime Minister explained the urgency of modifying prevailing tendencies in the economy, and outlined a medium-term rehabilitation and stabilization program. This program was informally but extensively discussed with, and broadly supported by the Bank and the Fund. The main objectives are to increase substantially the level of domestic savings, especially in the public sector, over a period of six years, with the first two years focussing mainly on stabilization, and the following four years (which would coincide with the Sixth Four-Year Plan) on the achievement of a modestly higher rate of economic growth of 4 percent a year. 1/ The most recent estimate records a decline in foreign reserves of US$120 million in 1979 due to an as yet unexplained acceleration of imports in the last quarter of the year.  - 5 - 14. According to the stabilization plan, public savings after debt service would increase from 1 percent of GDP in 1978/79 to 3.5 percent of GDP in 1985, mainly through a freeze of recurrent expenditures in real terms. Any shortfalls below this target are to be compensated by new tax measures and increased savings from public entities such as the stabilization fund. This savings target would allow the Treasury to contribute at least 15 percent to financing of the public investment program in the near future, to be improved to 25 percent by 1985. The 15 percent minimum contribution serves a planning function and is likely to be exceeded in favorable years, but may fall short in unfavorable years, such as in 1977/78 when it dropped to a negative level. In such cases, the additional requirements in foreign finance should be on concessionary terms. 15. Increased financial savings in the private sector would be encouraged by higher interest rates on deposits and savings certificates, and through the allocation of cheap housing loans based on earlier savings performance. In rural areas, the savings of farmers will be mobilized. However, the bulk of private savings will have to come from private enterprises. To achieve this goal, the Government has undertaken to ease price policies in order to restore profit margins, while imposing higher levies on non-re-invested profits. A tighter credit policy, in particular for non-productive projects, will evidently increase the need for independent generation of funds in the private sector. 16. Recognizing that the savings drive will weaken domestic demand and that production costs in Senegal are too high to meet foreign competition, the Government is taking steps to rationalize protection to the domestic producers by raising import duties while achieving greater uniformity in their application; it is also considering the possibility of subsidizing export industries with excess capacity. This policy allows for the fact that parity of the local currency is fixed in the framework of the monetary union to which Senegal belongs and that the CFA franc has de facto appreciated over time relative to most non-franc currencies, especially the dollar. 17. The situation of the para-public sector--which represents a serious drain on Government finances--is expected to become more sound with the conclusion of medium-term "program contracts" between the Ministry of Finance and individual para-public enterprises, with the aim to reduce present levels of budget support. According to the terms of these contracts, enterprises will be given more scope to adjust tariffs to more economical levels. 18. The stabilization program imposes ceilings on commercial borrowing abroad and restricts its use to projects that generate a sufficient cash flow to service such debt, and eliminates Government guarantees on loans to private and mixed enterprises unless such guarantees are required by the statutes of the lending institution. These measures will bring a highly desirable reduc- tion in Government's exposure to commercial risks. 19. To achieve the objectives of the stabilization plan, a recent administrative reform has placed all public finance functions under the Minister of Finance. Of particular importance is the centralization of debt management (previously a responsibility split between the Minister of Finance  and the Prime Minister), an arrangement which will allow the system to have its own tax resources and bank account, and an imprcved system of financial planning and control. 20. The trend in wages in the modern sector remains a matter of some concern. After sizable wage increases in 1979, Government decided as of January 1, 1980 to raise the minimum wage by 25 percent; and Government salaries were increased from 34.4 percent for the lowest paid workers to 3.6 percent for the highest paid, to be followed by another increase of 7 percent as of July 1. These increases are meant to compensate for past inflation and to cushion the effect on real incomes of the stabilization measures; however, they are relatively large and may lead to excessive inflationary pressure. Domestic inflation in 1979 was about 10 percent, which is well below the rate of inflation internationally. Longer-Term Prospects 21. The Government's long-range development strategy continues to be based on the promotion and diversification of agriculture and export-oriented activities. The agricultural program calls for development of areas less afflicted by drought (Casamance and Eastern Senegal), where cash crops other than groundnuts can be grown. Irrigated cereal production is being developed in the arid northern part of the country along the Senegal River. This policy will make the country less dependent on the uncertainties of its climate and world market prices, and reduce the heavy burden of food imports. To stimulate agricultural production in the Groundnut Basin, which has not substantially increased since Independence, Government proposes to overhaul the state- cooperative system, trimming the heavy bureaucracy and transferring economic initiative back to the farmers. Agricultural research will be oriented more on farm systems than on individual crops, with the objective of lowering the costs of the agricultural techniques propagated, and better adapting them to farmers' needs. The Government also aims at a modest expansion of phosphate mining, and development of light export industries and tourism; moreover, contracts have been signed for construction of a ship-repair yard, and plans for a phosphoric acid plant are in an advanced stage. However, with limited prospects for export growth in the groundnut sector, and because of the modest scale of the export subsidy scheme, no spectacular improvements in the balance of payments can be expected. Government counts heavily on the implementation of a number of large investments, either in irrigation to diminish the heavy dependence on rice imports, or in export-oriented manu- facturing industries. However, these investments have long gestation periods and involve the Government in substantial risks, and a cautious view of the long-term outlook is therefore warranted. Even if economic growth could be raised to a modest 4 percent a year between 1982 and 1985, the average growth rate between 1977 and 1985, because of the decline in GDP in 1978 and 1980, would probably not exceed 2.4 percent a year, which is still not above popula- tion growth. 22. Government intends to rely more on the private sector for investment in industry, tourism and other productive activities; however, it will take some time before this new emphasis will be reflected in the composition of investments. The private sector has a low propensity to invest because of Senegal's relatively high production costs, and (after a period of active  - 7 - state intervention) often insists upon Government participation or loan guarantees for new ventures, thus reducing the size of its risks. Moreover, some public investments are needed in view of the country's critical depen- dence on state-financed irrigation. 23. The stabilization plan will help Senegal to overcome the effects of the recent drought, the higher oil prices, and the high debt service built up over the past five years. Its strict implementation is therefore crucial for Senegal's economic growth and creditworthiness. To help Government achieve the structural reforms needed, the Bank is planning, as a first step, to expand ongoing technical assistance to the parapublic sector and in particular to the agricultural institutions, provide assistance to the setting up and implementation of the export subsidy scheme, help Government in establishing systems to monitor national savings, assist in improving selection and preparation of projects, and support the administrative reorganization in the Ministry of Finance to assure speedier execution of ongoing projects. Creditworthiness 24. The ratio of debt service to exports of goods and services increased rapidly from less than 7 percent until 1976 to 13 percent in 1979, and an estimated 16 percent in 1980. This steep increase is mainly the result of a rise in the share of commercial borrowing from about 25 percent of total borrowing during 1973-76 to an average of 56 percent during 1977 and 1980. This trend should not be permitted to continue in view of Senegal's fragile economy. Thanks to considerable restraint by the Government on commercial borrowing in 1979 (US$9 million), and the termination of repayments on earlier commercial credits, debt service will level off in the early 1980's. In the medium-term, expected improvement in export performance related to better crops, a few large export-oriented projects, and implementation of the export incentive scheme is expected to allow Government to keep the debt service ratio around 15 percent of export earnings. 25. The weak balance of payments position is dominated by the need to strengthen Senegal's foreign reserve position. In the short term, Senegal can afford low reserve levels through its membership in the West African Monetary Union which provides for pooling of foreign reserves, and whose currency is guaranteed unlimited convertibility by the French Treasury. Moreover, as the experience in 1978 has shown, IMF and STABEX facilities provide a buffer for the periodic drops in export revenues linked with droughts and fluctuations in world market prices. However, if Senegal maintains negative balances for an extended period, it could weaken the monetary union whose existence is a cornerstone for Senegal's creditworthiness. The impact on the balance of payments of the oil price rise since 1977, and the bad 1979/80 groundnut crop to be sold at low prices, would be on the order of $238 million (or 9 percent of GDP); estimates of the deficit on current account of the 1980 balance of payments range around 15 percent of GDP. Since Senegal's debt service burden is already extremely heavy, full Eurodollar financing of these deficits should not be envisaged. Foreign donors should therefore be prepared to raise the percentage of foreign finance in their projects, and consider program aid  in the first instance to help cushion the impact of these developments on net foreign assets, as well as to support the structural reforms being undertaken as part of the stabilization plan. 26. With implementation of the Government's economic stabilization plan, Senegal would remain creditworthy for some lending on IBRD terms. The Government has demonstrated its commitment to development by expanding its public investment effort substantially between 1970/71 and 1977/78 and has shown adequate capacity to respond to the problems which its vulnerable economy is bound to encounter periodically. Senegal's prospects for long-tern diversification and growth are modest, but essential to provide a reasonable basis for social and economic development. Its access to short-term financing facilities and membership in the West African Monetary Union also reduce the risks associated with economic fluctuations. However, as discussed in para. 25 above, Senegal will continue to need substantial concessionary assistance, heavy local cost financing of projects, and program aid associated with necessary stabilization measures and a program of structural reforms. PART II - WORLD BA4K OPERATIONS IN SENEGAL 27. The Bank Group has had 44 operations in Senegal to date. Total outstanding amounts to US$279.4 million, including 23 IDA credits, 14 Bank loans, three blends of Bank and IDA funds, four IFC operations, and one blend of Bank and IFC funds. Annex II contains a summary statement of Bank loans, IDA credits, and IFC investments as of March 31, 1980, and notes on the implementation of ongoing projects. Physical execution of these projects is progressing reasonably well, although some operations are affected by the shortage of counterpart funds due to the Government's continuing difficult public finance situation, as well as by lack of qualified local staff for key positions. But institutional bottlenecks in several sectors constitute the largest obstacle to efficient project implementation. The Government is well aware of the need to reduce delays caused by these problems, and particularly of the importance of assuring good management supervision of projects in all sectors. In this respect, the ongoing Para-Public Sector Technical Assist- ance initiates and implements measures necessary to resolve on a sector- wide basis some of the issues regarding the financial management and Govern- ment control of public enterprises and mixed companies, particularly those that are channels for Bank Group assistance. In addition, the Government has created in late 1978 an Interministerial Committee with representation of foreign aid donors, to expedite preparation of new investment projects, and to identify bottlenecks in project execution and take remedial action. The work of this committee has already begun to produce some positive results.  - 9 - 28. The Bank Group's share in total external aid disbursements to Senegal over 1977-81 will stay at around 12 percent, of which roughly 54 percent in IDA financing. The Bank Group's share in outstanding disbursed debt was 18 percent in 1979, and will (after falling slightly in 1980-83) slowly start to surpass that level, reaching about 20 percent in 1985. The Bank Group's share in public debt service is expected to increase from 3.8 percent in 1979 to about 4.9 percent in 1985, a rise which is mainly due to the increase in Bank loans from 32 percent of the Bank Group's total outstand- ing and disbursed funds to Senegal to about 42 percent by 1985. 29. The objectives of Bank Group lending in Senegal concur with the Government's strategy and fall under five main headings. First, priority continues to be given to rural development, including development of irrigation in the Senegal River Valley Region, rainfed agriculture in the well-watered southern regions of the country, intensification of groundnut production and diversification into new crops and new regions, national projects for improvement of agricultural research and for reforestation, and a Small Rural Operations Project which was approved by the Executive Directors earlier this year. As in the past, agricultural lending over the next few years is expected to exceed one-third of the total. Second, the Bank Group has supported diversification of the economy by lending to the growing industrial sector through the Societe Financiere Senegalaise pour le Develop- pement de l'Industrie et du Tourisme (SOFISEDIT), a development finance company established with Bank Group assistance in 1974, and through an ongoing project for development of tourism infrastructure. Third, Bank Group projects have supported modernization and expansion (where economically desirable) of the country's infrastructure. In the recent past, a Second Aviation Project was approved in FY79 and a Fourth Highway Project was approved earlier this year. Also, an engineering project approved in FY79 finances studies and technical assistance for water supply and sanitation development in eleven secondary centers, and is expected to pave the way for future Bank Group involvement in that sector. Similarly, the proposed project is intended to prepare our intervention in the power sector. Fourth, assistance is being provided under the Third Education Project approved in FY79 to help the Government re-orient and expand the country's education system at all levels, by meeting in particular the needs for trained high- and middle-level techni- cians and managers in the modern sector and in agricultural development activities, and by increasing access to primary education, particularly in rural areas. The Bank Group remains conscious of the need to support other projects in the social services sector (within the limits of the Government's ability to bear the recurrent costs involved), and has started preparing a production-oriented integrated food and nutrition project. Finally, continuing assistance is being provided to help Government increase its absorptive capacity for planning, executing, and managing development projects through institutional support within individual Bank Group projects, and through broader efforts such as the Para-Public Sector Technical Assistance Project. Several Bank Group operations, notably in tourism, telecommunications, port infrastructure, loans to SOFISEDIT, and in airport development, have the additional merit of generating revenues for the Senegalese Treasury.  - 10 - PART III - THE POWER AND ENERGY SECTOR 30. Senegal derives about 60 percent of its overall energy consumption from wood (firewood and charcoal), a relatively scarce resource which is increasingly threatened as a result of several droughts in the past years. There is evidence that offshore heavy oil deposits may exist, and the possibil- ity of developing them is being examined with Bank assistance under a PPF advance of $200,000 approved in January 1980. The Senegal and Gambia rivers are also known to have hydropower potential, but this has so far not proven to be economically viable. Lacking coal, national gas, proven oil reserves and hydropower potential within a reasonable transmission distance from the loads, Senegal relies heavily on imported oil to supplement wood to meet the country's overall energy requirements. As a result of the oil crisis of the 1970's, the oil import bill of Senegal has increasingly strained the country's balance of payments and the power sector in particular. Accordingly, the Government is seeking to develop alternative sources of energy and for that purpose is giving high priority to the formulation of a national energy plan to determine the most rational development and use of various energy sources. 31. Several Government departments are assuming responsibilities in the energy sector: the Ministry of Industrial Development and Craftsmanship (MIDC) is responsible for hydrocarbon energy resources, the Ministry of Equipment for hydropower resources, the Ministry of Rural Development for timber/forests resources and the Ministry of Scientific and Technical Research for renewable energy resources (solar, wind). The Government has created a National Energy Commission to coordinate sector activities but, largely because of the diffi- culties of gathering its large membership, this Commission has not properly functioned. In order to help the Government formulate coordinated and coherent national energy policies, the project would finance two energy advisers to MIIDC, whose principal duties would be to help (i) prepare proposals for the overall organization and coordination of the energy sector, and (ii) formulate a comprehensive national energy plan. Power Sector Organization 32. The most pressing issue affecting the power sector, which is under the responsibility of MIDC, is the need to restructure the present transitional arrangements which expire December 31, 1981. This restructuring would be studied under the project in order to make possible the creation of a single national entity responsible for the development and operation of the power sector.  - 11 - 33. Until December 1971, a French-owned private company, Compagnie de l'Eau et de l'Electricite de l'Ouest Africain (EEOA), owned and operated the power generating, transmission and distribution facilities in Senegal. Under a Financial Convention dated January 1972, the Government acquired all of EEOA's power facilities. Compensation in favor of EEOA was financed by a US$25 million commercial borrowing repayable in seven years with variable interest rates. At the same time, the Government created two companies: (i) Electricite du Senegal (EDS), a wholly-owned State corporation, responsible, on behalf of the Government, for planning and financing the development of the sector's facilities and for the repayment of the US$25 million Government borrowing; and (ii) Societe Senegalaise de Distribution d'Energie Electrique (SENELEC), a mixed-company owned 50 percent by the State through EDS and 50 percent by EEOA, which is responsible, under a January 1972 Concession Agreement, for managing and operating the sector facilities.1/ 34. In July 1973, a Technical Assistance Contract was signed between SENELEC and EEOA, under which SENELEC subcontracted to EEOA the technical operation of the sector's facilities. Under an amendment to the January 1972 Concession Agreement and to the July 1973 Technical Assistance Contract, signed by the Government, SENELEC and EEOA in February 1978, it was agreed that, by December 31, 1981, EEOA would sell all its remaining shares in SENELEC to the Government and terminate its technical assistance to SENELEC. As a result, a new sector organization will be needed by December 31, 1981, to replace the present system. For that purpose, consultants, financed under the Project, would make proposals by December 30, 1980. Existing Facilities 35. SENELEC, with a total staff of about 1,700, operates an intercon- nected power system in and around Dakar and 21 secondary centers with a total installed capacity of about 165 MW in the interconnected grid; this installed capacity could increase to about 180 MW by 1983, with the addition of 3 diesel units of about 5 MW each in Kaolack. The largest plant (oil-fired-steam) presently has an installed capacity of 101.5 MW in good working condition (the oldest unit commissioned in 1966), and the second largest plant (also oil-fired- steam) presently has 51 MW installed in 4 rather old units, commissioned between 1952 and 1962; all other generating plants have diesel units. The dependable power in the interconnected grid is about 130 MIW and could reach about 140 MW in 1983 with the expansion envisaged in Kaolack. Ninety KV transmission lines, 30 KV subtransmission lines and 6.6 KV primary distribution lines total 1,346 km. Low voltage lines total 1,538 km. Consumption in the interconnected grid reached 476 GWH in 1978, with about 6 GWH in secondary centers. The annual growth rate of consumption averaged 7.3 percent over the past 10 years; peak demand in 1978 reached 93.8 MW. Facilities have been operated and maintained without major problems. 1/ Under the Financial Convention between the Government and EEOA, the latter agreed to sell its 50 percent share in SENELEC to the Government in three equal installments on December 31, 1976, 1981 and 1986.  - 12 - Sector Development and Planning 36. Eighty-six percent of the electricity distributed in 1977 went to the Cap Vert and Thies regions. Consumers in those regions are hundreds of kilometers away from any of the potential hydroelectric dam sites on the Senegal and Gambia rivers and their tributaries, and it is unlikely that hydropower will be a major source of supply for them in the next 10/15 years. With insignificant natural gas reserves and presently unrecoverable offshore heavy oil reserves, Senegal has very few alternatives to crude oil imports (refined in Dakar's refinery) for electricity generation. Solar energy, because of its high cost, is unlikely to be a significant source of energy in the foreseeable future. 37. At the present time, no overall planning exists in the power sector. A 25-year master plan of the development of the sector, financed by the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), is underway and is expected to be completed by mid-1981. It would lead to recommendations on the long- term development needs of the sector. However, on the basis of load estimates made by SENELEC, the immediate concern of the Government is the gap, expected to develop by 1984/85, between demand and available power within the intercon- nected grid. It is to respond to this concern that the project would finance a feasibility study of the required expansion of the generating facilities over the next few years. Assurances were obtained at negotiations that, although the scope of the proposed studies is different from that of the CIDA-financed exercise, the Government would ensure a close coordination among them so as to avoid any duplication (Section 3.02 (e) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). Tariffs 38. Until 1977, electricity tariffs in Senegal were based on old structures in effect since 1966. They were based on the average rather than marginal cost of supply; furthermore preferential rates were applied inconsistently among large industrial consumers and also among public con- sumers. In 1976, a comprehensive tariff study was completed based on long- term marginal cost and put into application nationwide on January 1, 1977 with a declining block structure and an index formula linking tariffs with fuel prices, salaries and inflation. Tariffs were increased in early and mid-1979 to reflect sharp oil price increases. However, their level and structure ought to be updated as the pattern of consumption has changed and the cost of supply has continued to increase. Financial Performance 39. In 1978 SENELEC billed 482 GlWh at an average tariff of CFAF 24.0 (US$0.11) per kwh. Revenue from sales of electricity was CFAF 11.6 billion (US$55.2 million) which exceeded cash operating expenses plus debt service and yielded an 11.8% return on unrevalued net fixed assets in operation of CFAF 13.1 billion (US$62.4 million). Long term debt was CFAF 10.0 billion (US$47.6 million) at the end of 1978, and the relation of debt to equity was about 70:30. Debt service reached the level of CFAF 2.1 billion (US$10.0 million) in 1978, and the debt service coverage ratio, i.e. internal cash generation (revenues less operating expenses before depreciation and interest) compared  - 13 - to debt service, was only 1.3. This is due to the relatively short terms of some of the loans obtained in the past. Customer accounts of CFAF 3.0 billion (US$14.1 million) at the end of 1978 were equivalent to about 3 months of billing which can be considered to be a good performance. The above figures highlighting the financial situation of the power sector are derived from a consolidation of EDS's and SENELEC's unaudited financial statements. External auditors to be financed under the project would not only verify the accounts but also review accounting procedures and the adequacy of financial controls. Bank Group Role 40. The Bank Group objectives in the power and energy sector are to contribute to the Government's efforts to define coordinated and coherent policies aimed at exploiting the country's scarce energy resources in the most efficient way. More specifically, these objectives aim at helping the Govern- ment formulate and start implementing a comprehensive national energy plan. With regard to the particular needs of the power sector, the objective is to help the Government establish an adequate legal and organizational structure of the sector to ensure its sound development by strengthening its technical, organizational and financial management. PART IV - THE PROJECT Background 41. The proposed Engineering and Technical Assistance Credit would be the Association's first operation in the power sector in Senegal. The original request from the Government in June 1979 was to help determine a rational decision concerning the next power generating expansion since oil price increases were becoming more and more difficult to bear. During discussions with SENELEC's management in July 1979, it appeared that Bank Group assis- tance would be welcomed by the Government in restructuring the power sector. In October 1979, during project appraisal and discussions with the Government, it became apparent that a comprehensive national energy plan had to be formu- lated to cope with the increasing dependence of the Senegalese economy on petroleum products; furthermore, the need for training and for an electricity tariff study was also identified and agreed upon. The project is the result of discussions with the Government and EDS/SENELEC's management. Negotiations were held in April 1980 with a Senegalese delegation headed by His Excellency Louis Alexandrenne, Minister of Planning and Cooperation. There is no Staff Appraisal Report. Annex III indicates the timetable of key events in project preparation and processing. IBRD map 14976 shows the location of the main centers in Senegal. Project Objectives and Description 42. The objectives of the project would be (i) to help Government prepare a national energy plan and improve planning in the power sector; (ii) to strengthen the institutions of the power sector; (iii) to improve accounting systems and procedures in the power sector; and (iv) to ensure a rational medium- term development of the generating facilities within the interconnected system. The project, which would be carried out over 1980-1983, would include:  - 14 - (i) a study to determine the optimal organization of the Senegalese power sector, including examination of, and proposals concerning, the legal framework of a national entity to be established to replace the two existing companies; the study would make specific recommendations to the Government by December 31, 1980 to leave a full year for Government decision by December 31, 1981 (about 7 man-months); (ii) financial studies concerning EDS and SENELEC; these studies would include external audits of the financial statements of both entities, as well as their consolidated statements, as of the end of December 1979, 1980 and 1981, the latter date coinciding with the establish- ment of a new legal structure for the sector; the 1979 audit is needed to provide background data for the above study on sector reorganization. They would also include proposals for improved accounting systems and procedures, an outline of an accounting manual, redesign of internal control, implementation of cost center accounting, a review of data processing systems, assistance to the internal auditing section of the entities, and evaluation of training requirements for their financial staff. During the two years following initial analysis, the consultants will monitor the imple- mentation of the proposed improvements which would serve the future Senegalese power entity (about 30 man-months in total); (iii) a design study for the construction of a headquarters building for the future sector entity; this study (including topography, soil tests, and foundation and structure designs for the building) would be based on an analysis of the headquarters' staff requirements and would lead to a proposal for phased construction of a modest and functional building; it would be followed by execution of architec- tural specifications, preparation of bidding documents and analysis of bids (about 50 man-months in total); (iv) a feasibility study of the expansion of the interconnected system's generating facilities; this study would analyze the past and present electricity demand and consumption, make a forecast of generation requirements over the next ten years, analyze the existing generat- ing power facilities, and make proposals for an expansion program based on an economic comparison of several alternative programs; the merits of energy conservation through efficiency improvement of the existing power facilities would also be explored; the feasibility study would be followed by the execution of detailed engineering, preparation of bidding documents, and analysis of bids (about 65 man-months in total); (v) a tariff study which would analyze and make recommendations on the structure and level of future tariffs; the new tariffs would be applicable at the beginning of the next Plan period (July 1981) (about 20 man-months);  - 15 - (vi) six man-years of technical assistance to MIDC through two senior advisers experienced in energy resources planning; they would help formulate a national energy plan and prepare proposals for the overall organization of the energy sector. One of them would be a personal adviser to the Minister, and the other would assist, in particular, with matters relating to the power sector; in addition, si-srt-term consultancy services would be provided to assist these advisers in specific tasks; and (vii) training through scholarships on techniques of energy planning for 3 experienced engineers for 3 years each, two of them from MIDC and the third one to be employed by the future national entity. Project Cost 43. The total cost of the project is estimated at US$4.0 million equivalent, of which about US$3.3 million in foreign exchange (about 82 percent). Cost estimates are net of taxes and based on end of 1979 prices. For consulting services and technical assistance, estimates are based on contracts offered in Senegal and other Western African countries over the past year. For scholarships, estimates are based on experience in education projects in West Africa. Man-month costs for consulting services and technical assistance average US$12,000 monthly including about US$2,000 for reimbursable expenses; scholarships are estimated on the basis of US$15,000 yearly in foreign currency. Total consulting services under the project amount to about 15 man-years, including about 20 man-months for the architectural specifica- tions, preparation of bidding documents and analysis of bids for the study of the future entity's headquarters and about 50 man-months for the detailed engineering, preparation of bidding documents and analysis of bids for the study of the expansion of the thermal generation facilities. Technical assistance amounts to 6 man-years and training (scholarships) to 9 man-years. Physical contingencies ranging from 5 percent to 15 percent have been applied for all project components; price contingencies of 10 percent per year have also been applied throughout the project implementation period. Project Financing 44. The proposed Credit of US$3.3 million would cover the entire foreign exchange cost of the project and would be refinanced under a future Bank loan or IDA credit. At negotiations, EDS/SENELEC agreed to finance the local cost component of US$0.7 million equivalent. This undertaking will be specified in a supplementary letter. The Government has agreed to exempt the project elements from all taxes. Retroactive Financing 45. Retroactive financing of about US$0.2 million equivalent would be required to cover the following expenditures: (i) the financial studies covering the accounting systems of EDS/SENELEC and in particular the initial part of these studies (audit of 1979 accounts), the implementation of which started in December 1979;  - 16 - (ii) the power sector organization study, which should start by June 30, 1980 and be completed by December 31, 1980, so that a full year will be available for the Government to discuss the study's conclu- sions and recommendations and take the necessary legislative action by December 31, 1981; and (iii) the feasibility study of the expansion of the interconnected system's generating facilities which should be started without delay and be completed by December 31, 1980; on the basis of tentative load forecast, additional generating facilities should be on line for operation as early as December 1983. EDS/SENELEC has agreed to prefinance the contracts related to the retroactive financing. It is recommended that IDA approve the retroactive financing of US$0.2 million equivalent as described above. Project Execution 46. The project studies would be implemented by consulting firms under the supervision of EDS/SENELEC except for the financial studies and related external audits which would be carried out by the accounting firms Coopers and Lybrand, Paris and Aziz Dieye, Dakar, under the monitoring responsibility of the Government's Auditing Commission (Commission de Verification des Comptes et de Controle des Etablissements Publics). Project execution is expected to last from December 1979 (with the initial financial audit of the 1979 accounts) to December 31, 1983 with the end of the technical assis- tance to MIDC. All technical assistance and consulting services would be employed under contracts and terms of reference acceptable to IDA. The consultants' reports would be submitted in draft to permit review by IDA before being issued in final version. For the headquarters and the generating facilities expansion studies, assurances were obtained at negotiations that the Government will review in consultation with IDA the conclusions and recommendations of the consultants before proceeding with the architectural specifications/detailed engineering, preparation of bidding documents and analysis of bids. The consultants' conclusions and recommendations on sector restructuring, finances and on the tariff study would be discussed between the Government and IDA, and agreed recommendations would be implemented by the Government in consultation with IDA. Assurances were obtained at negotia- tions that the Government will furnish to IDA the final report on the study of the legal framework of the power sector by December 31, 1980 and take all measures required for the establishment of a permanent entity by December 31, 1981. (Section 3.02 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). Disbursements 47. Credit proceeds would be disbursed as follows: (i) 100 percent of the foreign exchange cost and 80 percent of the local costs of consulting and expert services; and (ii) 100 percent of the foreign exchange cost of scholarships.  - 17 - Disbursements are expected to begin during the second quarter of FY81 and be completed during the second quarter of FY84. Project Benefits and Risks 48. The proposed project would make an important contribution to helping the Government achieve its long-range objectives of organizing and streng- thening the power sector. It would achieve this by preparing a priority project for possible Bank Group financing, and by financing studies designed to improve institutional arrangements, technical standards, and financial policies. Specifically, the organizational and financial studies would provide the Government with viable proposals for the creation of a single national electricity entity; the feasibility study component of the project would help make a rational decision on the expansion of the interconnected grid's generating facilities; the tariff study would lead to sound and rational tariff structures; and the technical assistance and training compo- nents would help the Government establish the technical capacity for develop- ing a national energy plan. 49. The project faces no special risks. Detailed terms of reference for the proposed studies and a work program for all components of the project were discussed during project appraisal in order to minimize the risk of the studies not meeting the project objectives. They were finalized during negotiations. The Government is keenly interested in this project, and its full support, which will be needed in implementing recommendations from the various studies, is expected. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS A1fD AUTHORITY 50. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the Republic of Senegal and the Association, and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section l(d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Association, are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 51. Features of the draft Development Credit Agreement of special interest are mentioned in the text, and referred to in Section III of Annex III to this Report. 52. I am satisfied that the proposed Development Credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association.  - 18 - PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 53. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Development Credit. Robert S. McNamara President By: Ernest Stern Washington, D.C. April 28, 1980  - 19 - ANNEX L $014AL - SOCAL INDICATObS DATA SHUT RuFlaC Z GoUls (AJIJST A]EIS LOD AREA (THOUSAND SO. EX. )- OST RECET ESTIATE) TOTAL 1962 SAN SNEI HxT iCHEI hMICULTJlAL 81.0 MHST UECENT GSOCGACIC INcoHE INCOM 1960 /b 1970 Lk ESTIMA A tbGtON h GHour G OUI O 0 GMP? R CAPITA (0S) 180.I0 240.0 340.0 306.1 467.5 1097.7 gICY CONSMUFTION PtR CAPITA (XILOGAiAS Or COAL E1NIVALD4T) 121.0 13.9.0 156.0 80.6 262.1 730.7 POPULATIOII AND VITAL STATISTlCS POPV oAXIOU. ,MI O N5D-AA (TLLI0I4s) 3.4 4.4 5.2 IIAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 22.6 23.7 24.2 17.1 24.6 49.0 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POlATIOW IEN YES 2000 (XILLIOIS) 9.0 STATIONAIY POPMLTIOE (MILLIONS) 24.0 TEAA STATIONAIT POPUATION IS RECHED 2155 POPULATION OENSITT PER sq. a(. 17.0 22.0 27.0 1S.4 45.3 44.6 PER Sq. DC. AINICULTUIAL LAD 43.0 55.0 64.0 50.8 149.0 140.7 POPULATION AGE STRUCTUE (PERCENT) 0-14 1S5. 42.5 42.9 44.2 44.1 45.2 41.3 15-64 2SS. 56.0 54.2 52.7 52.9 51.9 55.3 65 TtS. AND ASOon 1.5 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.5 POPULATIOI CUOWTR RAT (PERCENT) TOTAL 2.2 t.4 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.4 UAN - 3.5 2.9 2.9 5.7 4.3 4.5 CRUDE SIXRT RAT! (PE THOUSAND) 47.9 46.8 48.5 46.3 39.4 31.1 QUDE DEATH RATE (PE TSOUSAND) 26.7 23.7 22.3 17.2 11.7 9.2 QOSS UPRODUCTION RATZ 3.0 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.2 FPA4ILY PLANNING ACCEPTOIS, ANNUAL (TOUSANDS) . USERS (pPZCENT Of MRIED WNDU) 13.2 34.7 100 AND NCTRITION INDEX 0t FOD PRODUCTION PEM CAPITA (1969-71-100) 124.2 62.0 100.08j 94.3 99.6 104.4 PER CAPITA SUPPLT 07 CALORIES (PERCET OP REqUIzRmNTS) 97.0 91.0 97.0 89.5 94.7 105.0 PIIDTSNS (GUAS PER DAY) 64.0 64.0 67.1 55.8 54.3 64.4 OF WtlCH ANIMAL AND PULSE t16.6L 20.8 17.9 17.4 23.5 CHILD (AES 1-4) MORTALITY RTE 41.0 35.0 32.0 22.3 11.4 S. 6 EALTH LIE XPECTANCY AT 3rT (TARS) 37.0 40.0 42.0 47.0 54.7 60.2 INFANT MOITALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) 68.1 46. 7 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL 37.0 20.3 34.4 60.8 UlAN 68.0 53.9 57.9 75. 7 IURAL 23.0 10.1 21.2 40.0 ACCESS TO EXCUTA DISPOSAL (PERCENT oF POPULATION) TOTAL 22.5 40.8 46.0 .AN 62.5 71.3 46.0 RURAL 13.9 27.7 22.5 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 35000.0 16640.0 16450.0 17424.7 6799.4 2262.4 POPULATION PER NS2IIC PtRSON 4110.OLi 2410.0 1660.0 2506.6 1522.1 1195.4 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 940.0 810.0 730.0 502.3 726.5 453.4 URBAN 390.0 380.0 201.4 272. 7 253.1 RURAL 1300.0 1156.0 1403.6 1404.4 2732.4 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED 22. 2 26.7 23.4 27.5 22.1 ROUS ING AVTBAGR SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL 4.9 5.4 5.3 URJAN 76 4.9 5.1 5.2 ROSAL 6.0 5.5 5.5 5.4 AVERAGt NUMBER OF PEWONS PER ROOM TOTAL .. .. .. .. .. 1.9 URBAN 1.6 RURAL 52. ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCE OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL 28.1 50.0 URBAN 45.1 71.7 RURAL 9.9 17.3  - 20 - ANNEX I Page 2 SENEGAL - SOCLAL INDICATORS. DATA SHEET REFERENCE GROUPS (ADrJUSTED AyERAGES - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) - SAIIE SA.MtE NEXT ICGHER -MOST RECENT GEOGRAPHIC INCOtIE LNCOtE 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b REGION /c CROUP /d GROUP /e -DUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLME.T RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 2'.0 43.0 45.0 59.0 82.7 102.5 MALE 36.0 53.0 55.0 64.2 87.3 108.6 FEMALE 17.0 33.0 35.0 44.2 75.8 97.1 SECONDARY: TOTAL 3.0 10.0 11.0 9.0 21.4 33.5 MALE 4.0 15.0 16.0 12.0 33.0 38.4 FEMALE 2.0 6.0 7.0 4.4 15.5 30.7 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (I OF SECONDARY) 23.0 9.0 10.0 7.0 9.8 11.5 PUPIL-TEACiMR RATIO PRI'IARY .. 45.0 49.0 42.2 34. 1 35.8 SECONDARY 34.0 29.0 22.0 22.9 23.4 22.9 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERC ) 5.6/h 10.0 10.0 20.8 54.0 64.0 CONSUfPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 6.0 9.0 9.2 4.0 9.3 13.5 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 47.0 69.0 69.0 44.3 76.9 122.7 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPUTLATION .. 0.4 8.0 2.9 13.5 38.3 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 6.0 5.0 7.0 5.6 18.3 40.0 CINE!1A ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA .. .. 1.2 0.4 2.5 3.7 LABOR FORCE TITAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 1300.0 1570.0 1770.0 FEMALE (PERCENT) 39.7 39.1 38.8 31.9 29.2 25.0 AG RICULTURE (PERCENT) 83.6 79.7 77.0 77.6 62.7 43.5 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 5.4 6.6 9.0 7.9 11.9 21.5 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 46.6 44.3 42.8 40.8 37.1 33.5 MALE 56.7 54.5 53.0 53.9 48.8 48.0 FEMALE 36.8 34.3 32.8 25.6 20.4 16.8 ECONOKIC DEPEMOENCY RATIO 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 INCOME DISTRIBL'TION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HICHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 36.8/i .. .. .. 15.2 20.8 HIClEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 62.57T .. .. .. 48.2 52.1 WI-EST 20 FERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 3.2/i .. .. .. 6.3 3.9 LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 9.47/ .. .. .. 16.3 12.6 POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTI!LATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. 187.6 241.3 270.0 RIURAL .. .. 72.0 96.8 136.6 183.3 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 151.0 138.4 179.7 282.5 RURAL .. .. .. 71.0 103.7 248.9 ESTINATED POPULATION 3ELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) UR8AN . .. .. 34.5 24.8 20.5 RURAL .. .. .. 48.7 37.5 35.3 Noc available Noc applicable. NOTES /a The adjusced group averages for each indicator are population-weighted geometric means, excluding the extreme values of the indicator and the most populated coumcry in each group. Coverage of countries among che indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /b Unless ocherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for eost Recent Estimate. becween 1974 and 1977. /c Africa South of Sahara; /d Lower Middle Income (S281-550 per capita, 1976); /e Intermediate Middle Income ($551-1135 per capita, 1976); /f 1972; a 1964; /h African population only; /i Popula- tion; /j 1978. Nost Recent Estimate of GNP per capita is for 1978. August, 1979  - 21 - Hots: Ao~sh te data. se dreas from sources generally judged the Met authoritative sa relIable, it should also he cvotd that tbsy aw st be misnt-f UM LI .6 rale becees of the lwac of etend.rdised dafiniticame end Concepts usad by ditffemet countries in collecting the daLta. The date werg sonnetheines, useful to deecribe ordens of mwwltude, tilg.1ate tram", and Charaeterize certain mmjor differences between contrie. The SMt M M5frechIieao r ppltltwihtdgtic ems, enduing0 the extra alues of the iudIcator sod the Mat popal-etd Counutry i ahgrou. ha to lack of data, greap aveegme of afll Indicatocs for capital surplus. Oil dUporters end of indicator of Aceoss to Water and xtcreta fliaposal, Houing, Zwoo Diatrihution and 5oerty for other coastry groupe are pcpeastion-wei*t5d gebotrio amans without ealusLm of the cutrate values and the inst populated coutry. Sinc thCoesse ofusntrias inn th niao depeds on availability ofdt n snt uniform. cautio mtbe exercised torltngaeaeso n Indicator to aohr hs average ar Aahs sfulL as approcimmations of 'exoecte lvale when compaisate aue-f n iWMHllcato rat ati anc teCountry ad reforence groups. lAW ARAA (thousend sq. An.) cccs. to h-oret Dispsa pecn fppuaia oa.ubn.F ad roaI ____=t Total eurfacs area coeprising lad wareaend inlan waters. _ARFher o_f peo*ple (ttl rs adrrl ere yecet ipc a Agricultural - tast recent esatimate of agricuItural area. used teambrerily percentage. of their reepecti-e population - ortet disposal emy include or permaenetly for Crops, pastures, market and kitchen gardens or to the Collection end diepseol, citb or -uitbco- -~astammnt, of buans excreta lie fallow. ad waste-wter by water-borne cytsoms or the use of pit privise aond similar 0 PITA GY- lP pe capita. ectiattec at Current market prices, lastallationa.. -Ppfi dvddb udro rciigpwilA caclted py cem covrion stood as World BenA Atlas (1975-77 bnasic); rom mei School at universIty level. 1960, 19,70, and 1977 data.- Ponaaton ser Thesi Person - Popsiation divided by nmabor of precticing Sale C PEJPf~FR CAPrTA - bAsnal ..onsvtio of caemarejal negy man rem"s grada"te va,sre, practical suree., *ed assisanst oarces. " Wyclad l too ass,natural gas end bydo-, molteru and go-2L Poaaion ~rklinenita Red total. ora.ed ral-IPopulation (total, ortac, theial electritciy Ikiursof coal equivlent per Capita; 19*, anmca)dvddh hI epcienar ohspital beds acailable in 1970, sad 1976 data, public man private generoa end specilel-od hoetpital sod rehahilitation centers.. Hlospital1s are etstalishmmnta persengtly staffed by at least cone phy.clis. POKWI2!Ii AIFD VITAL STATISTICS Istabliehmmenta providing princIpallj, custodial Care are nMt Included. Rural Tetal Population. E1d-Tear MLeimos) - Am of July 1; 1960, 1970, end hospitals, however, include health, and edical. centers not permmanently staf fed 1977 dLata- by a plWsician (baut by a aedical assistant, inses, aidwife, etc.) which offer 9rbng,,frlyt ion (perceat of total) - Ratio of urhan to total population; In-patient scacordation end provide a lailed. rAnge of 0mical facilities. differthWdfifTitioos o_Qf urhe areas -my affect comyarebility of data. It1o - Total masher of adeissions to or diecharges frow ame countries; 1960, 1970, end i973 data- 9ftijl7talA dvde the. aster of beds. PopulCuronent population projections are bass on 1W8oG 1975