India - Rajasthan Water Supply and Sewerage Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OMCIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-283 1-IN REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO INDTA FOR THE RAJASTHAN WATER SUPPLY AND SEWERAGE PROJECT June 2, 1980 This document has a restrited distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanee of their offichl duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authoriztin.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Rs 1 = Paise 100 US$1 = Rs 8.40 Rs 1 US$0.1190 Rs 1 million = US$119,047.61 (Since September 25, 1975, the Rupee has been officially valued relative to a "basket" of currencies. As these currencies are now floating, the U.S. Dollar/Rupee exchange rate is subject to change. As of May 16, 1980 the exchange rate was Rs 7.943 to US$1.0). FISCAL YEAR April 1 - March 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS GOI - Government of India GOR - Government of Rajasthan PHED - Public Health Engineering Department RWSSB - Rajasthan Water Supply and Sewerage Management Board  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY INDIA RAJASTHAN WATER SUPPLY AND SEWERAGE PROJECT Credit and Project Summary Borrower: India, acting by its President. Beneficiaries: The Rajasthan Water Supply and Sewerage Management Board (RWSSB), the Public Health Engineering Department of Rajasthan (PHED) and participating local authorities. Amount: US$80 million. Terms: Standard. Relending Terms: India to the Government of Rajasthan (GOR): As part of Central assistance for State development projects on terms and conditions applicable at the time. Project Description: Water supply facilities would be improved and expanded in four rapidly growing cities in the State of Rajasthan, and the sewerage system extended in three of these cities. New piped water supplies would also be provided to about 2,000 villages. These facilities would enable an additional 242 million liters of water per day (mld) to be supplied to the 2.4 million people in the four cities and provide about 1.7 million people in the 2,000 villages with improved water supplies by 1985. The project would also develop RWSSB as an institution capable of planning and implementing sectoral development programs in Rajasthan. The needs of the urban and rural poor would be met through water from standpipes supplied at a modest charge. Credit would also be provided on easy terms to facilitate sewer connections and basic plumbing installation by the economically weaker sections of society. The project faces risks of possible delays in implementation, and possible revenue shortfalls in rural areas on account of the untested cost recovery measures proposed. These risks are expected to be minimized through provision of consultant assistance, and a GOR undertaking to make up any shortfalls in revenue collection in rural areas. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  - ii - Estimated Costs: (US$ millions) Local Foreign Total Rural Areas - Water Supply Civil Works 11.3 - 11.3 Equipment and Materials 18.9 7.0 25.9 Sub-total 30.2 7.0 37.2 Urban Areas - Water Supply Civil Works 15.8 - 15.8 Equipment and Materials 20.7 7.6 28.3 Sub-total 36.5 7.6 44.1 Urban Areas - Sewerage Civil Works 5.7 - 5.7 Equipment and Materials 3.6 - 3.6 Sub-total 9.3 - 9.3 Engineering 21.4 21.4 Consultant Services and Training 1.4 0.1 1.5 Physical Contingencies 10.8 2.0 12.8 Price Contingencies 32.4 5.3 37.7 Total Project Cost 1/ 142.0 22.0 164.0 Financing Plan: (US$ Millions) Local Foreign Total IDA Credit 58.0 22.0 80.0 GOR Grant/Loans 84.0 - 84.0 Total 142.0 22.0 164.0 Estimated (US$ Millions) Disbursements: IDA FY FY81 FY82 FY83 FY84 FY85 FY86 Annual 5.7 10.8 12.4 26.0 22.4 2.7 Cumulative 5.7 16.5 28.9 54.9 77.3 80.0 Rate of Return: About 6%. Appraisal Report: No. 2865b-IN, dated May 19, 1980. 1/ Includes about US$5 million of duties and taxes.  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO INDIA FOR THE RAJASTHAN WATER SUPPLY AND SEWERAGE PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed de- A velopment credit to India in an amount equivalent to US$80 million on standard IDA terms to help finance a water supply and sewerage project in four cities and about 2,000 villages in Rajasthan. The proceeds of the credit would be channeled to the Government of Rajasthan (GOR) in accordance with the Govern- ment of India's standard terms and arrangements for the financing of State development projects. The foreign exchange risk would be borne by the Gov- ernment of India. PART I - THE ECONOMY 2. An economic report, "Economic Situation and Prospects of India" (2933-IN, dated May 1, 1980), was distributed to the Executive Directors on May 14, 1980. Country data sheets are attached as Annex I. Background 3. India is a large and diverse country with a population of 663 mil- lion (in mid-1980) and an annual per capita income of US$180. Agriculture continues to dominate India's economy, employing over two-thirds of the labor force. However, the land base is not sufficient to provide an adequate live- lihood to all those engaged in agricultural activities, especially the land- less or nearly landless who have only an insecure grasp on the means of existence. The share of agriculture in GDP at factor cost (measured in 1970/71 prices) has declined from 59.6% in 1950/51 to 40.7% in 1978/79. The share of industry has increased over the same period from 14.5% to 22.7%. But this process of industrialization has not been rapid enough to absorb the growing labor force, nor to bring about the substantial economic transformation that has led to higher productivity and rapid urbanization in some other developing in some other developing countries. The urban population was 18% of the total in 1960, and is 21% now. 4. Economic growth has been slow in the past. The trend growth rate of GDP was 3.7% per annum from 1950/51 to 1978/79. Slow growth in agriculture-- 2.5% per annum over the same period--has constrained overall growth, not only because of the high share of agriculture in GDP but also because scarce foreign exchange has often been required to import food. Industrial valued-added has grown more rapidly, at 5.4% per annum between 1950/51 and 1978/79, but such a growth has not been as high as in many other countries, nor as high as must be expected if the overall growth and structural transformation of the economy is to be accelerated. This slow growth has persisted despite a quite creditable domestic saving and investment performance. Gross domestic saving more than  -2- 1978/79. Similarly, gross domestic investment as a fraction of GDP rose from 10% in 1950/51 to just over 24% in 1978/79. Foreign savings have never financed a large portion of domestic investment: a peak of about 20% was reached during the early 1960s; by the end of the 1970s, the proportion had returned to much lower levels. ExternaL assistance has been low both as a percentage of GDP and in per capita terms. Net external assistance has never risen above 3% of GDP. 5. Except during periods of balance of payments crisis, exports have received relatively little emphasis in India, which has primarily pursued a strategy of import subsitution. As a result, India's share of world trade has fallen consistently since 1950/51. The volume growth of exports between 1950/51 and 1978/79 averaged only 3.0 per annum. The volume of growth of imports over the same period has slightly exceeded that of exports. During the early 1970s, India's terms of trade, which had remained roughly constant during the 1960s, deteriorated drastically, spurring a relatively rapid period of export growth through the mid-1970s. For the five years ending in 1976/77 the volume of India's exports grew on average over 10% per annum, demonstrating that sustained rapid growth was possible. While expanding world markets, par- ticularly in the near-by Middle East, contributed to this process, adjustments in trade policies designed to improve the profitability of exports played a major role. Recent Trends 6. Over the period 1975/76 to 1978/79, growth in real GDP (at factor cost), agricultural value-added and industrial value-added averaged 4.7%, 2.8% and 7.3% per annum, respectively. These trends represent a marginally better growth performance than the long-term trends from 1950/51 to 1975/76. However, GNP is expected to have declined by about 3% in 1979/80 as a result of the drought-induced decrease in agricultural production and input con- straints in other sectors, bringing recent trends back in line with the long- term picture. Industrial production stagnated in 1979/80, largely due to shortfalls in the production of major inputs such as coal, steel and cement, as well as constraints in the provision of infrastructure, notably power and transportation. As a consequence of these developments, the remarkable price stability that characterized the Indian economy after 1975 came to an abrupt end at the close of fiscal year 1978/79. During the Spring and Summer of 1979 the price index rose sharply, so that by September it stood at 18.4% above that of the previous September. Foodgrain prices rose over the Summer and Fall of 1979 but in most markets still prevailed close to the Government's ration prices. Low income groups in urban areas were assured adequate sup- plies of grain at stable prices through the public distribution system. The substantial stocks of foodgrains also provided resources for a large-scale drought relief employment program for low income groups in rural areas. 7. In agriculture the positive results of large investments and appro- priate policies over the past few years are becoming increasingly evident and have withstood the test of a severe drought. Agricultural production, which had increased by 14.5% in 1977/78 and 3.4% in 1978/79 to record levels each year, fell about 8-9% in 1979/80. Foodgrain production is estimated to have  - 3 - declined from 131.4 million tons in 1978/79 to 118-120 million tons in 1979/80. Considering that 1979/80 was a year of acute drought, coming after two succes- sive years of record output, the foodgrain production achieved - still the fourth highest in Indian history - provides a measure of the contribution that expanded irrigation, extension and other inputs have made to Tndian agriculture. Furthermore, the capacity of India's irrigation potential to counteract drought conditions was not adequately tested because of the diesel shortages which inhibited the utilization of groundwater resources. Rapid growth in the use of basic inputs for agricultural production has continued. Additions to the area under irrigation have almost doubled from 1.3 million hectares during the five-year period ending in 1973/74 to about 2.5 million additional hectares a year during the most recent three-year period. Fertilizer consumption in 1979/80 exceeded five million nutrient tons, a level almost 80% higher than in 1975/76. 8. As the new decade begins, the Indian economy is shifting from a situation of resource surplus, which had been a temporary phenomenon of the late 1970s, to one of resource scarcity. Investment has again overtaken domestic savings, and the scope for further increases in the latter appears limited. Marginal savings rates have recently been well above 30% in the household sector. Future increases in savings will depend largely on enhanced profitability of public sector enterprises. Impeding resource scarcity is even more apparent in the foreign sector. Between 1975/76 and 1978/79 India's current account deficit had remained comfortably small in relation both to GDP and to a growing pipeline of aid commitments. This was primarily due to favorable terms of trade movements and rapidly growing net invisibles which masked adverse underlying trends in the volume of exports, which has barely grown since 1976/77. Particularly serious is the evident decline in the quantum of manufactured non-traditional exports which had contributed much to the export growth of the first half of the decade. A combination of strong domestic, and slack international demand, exacerbated until recently by apparent lessened interest in export promotion, have been the major casual factors. 9. In constrast, imports have grown rapidly in volume terms and there have been important changes in composition. As a result of the accumulation and maintenance of foodgrain stocks, foodgrain imports - which had been a traditional item in the balance of payments - have declined to insignificant levels since 1977/78. Reflecting the impact of the liberalized import policy adopted by the Government, non-foodgrain imports increased sharply, so that their level in 1978/79 was over 80% higher than in 1975/76. In large part, the liberalization in import policy and increase in imports were limited to raw materials, basic commodities and intermediate goods; consumer goods remained banned and capital goods imports were permitted only on a selective basis. Strong new pressures on the balance of payments have developed during 1979/80. The terms of trade again deteriorated markedly as a consequence of unexpectedly large increases in petroleum prices, which caused the oil import bill to double in 1979/80, accounting for more than 80% of the total estimated US$2.5 billion increase in imports, and bringing India's total import bill to about US$11 billion. Petroleum imports as a proportion of exports now exceed 50%.  4- Development Prospects 10. The experience of recent years illustrates that India does have the capacity to grow and develop at a more rapid pace. Although the industrial sector is small compared to the size of the economy, it nevertheless has a highly diversified structure and is capable of manufacturing a wide variety of consumer and capital goods. Basic infrastructure -- irrigation, railways, telecommunications, roads and ports -- is extensive compared to many countries, although there is considerable scope for expansion as well as improvement in the utilization of existing capacity. India is also well-endowed with human resources and with institutional infrastructure for development. Finally, India has an extensive natural resource base in terms of land, water, and minerals (primarily coal and ferrous ores, but also gas and oil). With good economic policies and sufficient access to foreign savings, India has the capability for managing these considerable resources to accelerate its long- term growth. 11. The new Indian Government installed in January 1980 is in the process of formulating its policies and programs. A new Plan for the period 1981-86 is being prepared to replace the Draft Five-Year Plan for 1978-83. At this stage it is not possible to comment on the new development strategy; however, it is unlikely that the priorities accorded to agriculture and power will be lessened. Furthermore, developments in India as well as in the world economy during 1979/80 have brought to the surface urgent issues which will need the attention of policy-makers, irrespective of the broader context of development strategy that the new Government: may adopt. Among these issues are the following: (a) the bottlenecks in infrastructure and related constraints in production of several basic industrial inputs; (b) the new policy options emerging in agriculture; (c) the need to substitute less costly energy sources for imported petroleum; and (d) the anticipated deterioration of the balance of payments in the near future. 12. The higher capital formation rates of the past few years augur well for future income growth. However, there are signs that, relative to existing demands, the past investment program has led to disproportionally low growth in certain crucial sectors, namely power, coal, transport services, steel and cement. Potential output growth in sectors which have benefitted from large investments in the recent past may not materialize unless these input bottle- necks are alleviated. In the case of coal, steel and cement, domestic produc- tion appears to be clearly justified on grounds of comparative advantage, and the aim of policy is self-sufficiency. All these are tradeable commodities. Although in 1979/80 they were not imported in sufficient amounts to eliminate the shortages, increased short-term reliance on imports may be necessary to alleviate slowdowns and dislocation in using industries. In the case of sectors in which there is no option to import - power and transportation - the planning of capacity expansion becomes even more crucial. Although there is scope for improvement in the shortrun performance of these sectors, major investments in balancing and modernization prograns as well as new capacity are needed in order to provide adequate and stable growth in the medium term. The presence of infrastructural constraints and shortages of basic industrial inputs demonstrates that the expansion of industrial outout leads to competing claims on scarce resources which must be efficiently allocated among different industries.  - 5-- 13. The substantial increase in the world price of petroleum in 1979, together with the expectation that this pattern will not be reversed in the near future, raises several issues concerning energy prospects for India. India imports the equivalent of about 50% of its petroleum consumption. In order to imnlement its policy of minimizing dependence on foreign oil, the Government intends to rapidly expand its oil exploration program, to increase the utilization of its vast coal reserves and to increase the development of India's considerable hydroelectric potential. However, recent shortages of coal and power are symptomatic of operational problems reflecting, in part, past planning and investment decisions which are inhibiting the timely imple- mentation of India's long-term conversion program. The interdependencies in the economy currently make petroleum demand a residual which is contingent on the operation of many other sectors and which has significant implications for the balance of payments. 14. In agriculture, despite the 1979 drought, economic policies, devel- opment programs and secular trends all seem favorable for sustaining a period of high growth during the 1980s. India should end the 1979/80 rabi season with grain stocks of about 15 million tons, without having imported foodgrains during the year. This is partly due to the bumper crop of 1978/79, but also reflects the trends of the last decade which point to a consistent improvement in foodgrain availability in the economy. In view of the acceleration in the use of agricultural inputs and the projected fall in the population growth rate, the long-run prospects for foodgrain supply and demand balances look favorable. Persistent shortage seems unlikely, and it is probable that a wide range of policy options will -ecome much more practical as the overriding emphasis on foodgrains can be soaewhat relaxed. These options include a slowly falling real price of foodgrains to increase the affordability of foodgrains to low- income families, further rationalization of domestic markets and prices, and diversification to the production of other higher value crops. This prospect will involve only a gradual shift in emphasis rather than a dramatic break with past policies. 15. Foreign exchange reserves still provide some cushion that can help the Government of India in short-term supply management, but this situation is likely to be short-lived. Rising import prices and uncertainties in the prospects for exports and invisible receipts have led to a serious and rapid deterioration in India's balance of payments prospects. Reserves were only marginally higher in March 1980 than the level of a year earlier and, in terms of import coverage, fell below the 8-month level for the first time since 1977. A sharp decline in the reserve level is expected in 1980/81. At best, India's reserves may provide a cushion for two more years, and even that is conditional on the maintenance of aid flows and workers' remittances and on moderation in oil price rises. 16. India's medium-term development prospects are mixed. Progress has been made and continues to be made, particularly in agriculture, but the economy faces a period of difficult adjustments in the coming years. Invest- ments required to relieve short-term supply constraints must compete with longer-term programs to accelerate growth and to develop India's considerable  -6- physical and human resources. The balancing of these objectives will place a difficult burden on thes framers of India's next Five-Year Plan. The primary focus must be on the implementation of appropriate domestic adjustment policies, although the aid community can and should play an important role in ensuring that India's efforts do not fail due to inadequate foreign resources. 17. The annual population growth rate declined from 2.2% in the late 1960s to below 2% at present and is expected to continue falling to around 1.6% by the latter half of the 1980s. Despite the declining trend in the rate of population increase, a net reproduction rate of one (replacement level) will only be achieved around the year 2020. At that time, the population of India is estimated to reach 1.2 billion persons, an increase of about 81% over the mid 1980 level of 663 million. Family planning has played an important role in achieving the fertility decline in the past decade, and the extent of a further decline will be greatly influenced by the continuation of a success- ful official family planning program. The family, planning performance data for 1978/79 and the first ten months of 1979/80 clearly indicate a come back from the sharp decline observed in virtually all major contraceptive methods during 1977/78. Except for male sterilizations, the number of acceptors for all contraceptive methods surpassed the 1974/75 levels in 1978/79. While the increase in the total acceptors of IUD and conventional contraceptives was modest, female sterilizations increased by about 40% between 1977/78 and 1978/79. Data for the first ten months of 1979/80 confirm a secular upward trend in overall performance. So far, policy makers have not made major attempts to accelerate the male sterilization program. Instead, they have opted for policies that would yield relatively modest but sustainable results with increased emphasis on non-terminal methods. 18. Beyond the effects of overall economic growth and constrained popula- tion growth, the reduction of poverty in India requires special attention to ways of raising the income and productivity of low-income groups. More than one-third of the world's poor live in India, and more than 80% of the Indian poor belong to the rural households of landless laborers and small farmers. In addition to marginal holdings of physical assets, the poor are ill-endowed with human resources, being disproportionately represented among the illiterate, the malnourished and those having otherwise poor health status. Improvements in the living standards of the poor will depend to a large extent on the over- all growth of the economy, mainly on productivity increases in agriculture and non-farm rural employment, but also on the expansion of employment oppor- tunities in urban areas. These developments will have to stem largely from market forces which, however, can be greatly facilitated by appropriate gov- ernment policies and investment priorities. There is also a role for direct government actions in faster implementation of land reform (though the scope for significant reduction in poverty through redistribution is quite limited in India), in increasing the supply of credit available to small farmers and rural artisans and finally in broadening the provision of those services which enhance the human capital of the poor and improve living standards. Many of the latter are elements of the Minimum Needs Program which has been an integral part of Indian planning for the past decade. Progress has been slow but steady in the expansion of primary education, the extension of rural  - 7 - health facilities and the provision of secure village water supplies. Recent innovations, including the community health volunteer program and the national adult literacy campaign, are encouraging evidence that well-targetted, rela- tively low-cost programs can lead to enhanced prospects for India's poor. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN INDIA 1/ 19. Since 1949, the Bank Group has made 57 loans and 118 development credits to India totalling US$2,529 million and US$7,255 million (both net of cancellation), respectively. Of these amounts, US$1,055 million had been repaid, and US$3,226 million was still undisbursed as of March 31, 1980. Bank Group disbursements to India in the current fiscal year through March 31, 1980, totalled US$517 million, representing an increase of about 44% over the same period last year. Annex II contains a summary statement of disbursements as of March 31, 1980, and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 20. Since 1959, IFC has made 18 commitments in India totalling US$72.5 million, of which US$17.4 million has been repaid, US$7.6 million sold and US$6.9 million cancelled. Of the balance of US$40.6 million, US$31.5 mil- lion represents loans and US$9.1 million equity. A summary statement of IFC operations as of March 31, 1980, is also included in Annex II (page 5). 21. In recent years, the emphasis of Bank Group lending has been on agriculture. The Bank Group has been particularly active in supporting minor irrigation and other on-farm investments through agricultural credit operations and in providing direct support to major and medium irrigation. Marketing, seed development, agricultural extension, and dairying are other agricultural activities supported by the Bank Group. Also, the Bank Group has been active in financing the expansion of output in the fertilizer sector and, through its sizeable assistance to development finance institutions, in a wide range of geographically scattered medium- and small-scale industrial enterprises. IDA financing of industrial raw materials and components for selected priority sectors has been instrumental in facilitating better capacity utilization in industry. The Bank Group has also been active in supporting infrastructure development for power, telecommunications, and railways. Family planning, water supply development, and urban investments have also received Bank Group support in recent years. 22. The direction of assistance under the Bank/IDA program has been consistent with India's needs and the Government's priorities. The emphasis of the program on agriculture, power, water supply and other infrastructure sectors remains highly relevant. Projects designed to foster agricultural production through the provision of essential inputs, particularly water and credit for on-farm investments, will continue to receive emphasis. Improved water management and intensification and streamlining of extension systems 1/ Part II of the Report is substantially the same as Part II of the President's Report for the Calcutta Urban Transport Project (Report No. P-2812-IN), dated May 14, 1980.  -8- form an important institution-building aspect of the Bank Group's program for the next several years. Special emphasis will be given to projects benefit- ting small farmers. The Bank Group's continuing role in the fertilizer sector also assists India in the more efficient provision of another key input in the agricultural growth process. Projects supporting water supply, sewerage, and urban development also form an integral part of the Bank's lending strategy to India for the next several years. Lending in support of infra- structure and industrial investments will focus on those subsectors which have recently emerged as key constraints on India's overall growth, primarily power and transportation. 23. The need for a substantial net transfer of external resources in support of the development of India's economy has been a recurrent theme of Bank economic reports and of the discussions within the India Consortium. Thanks in part to the response of the aid community, India successfully adjusted to the changecl world price situation of the mid 1970s. However, the need for increased foreign assistance to adjust to an even greater deter- ioration in balance of payments prospects during the 1980s by augmenting domestic resources and stimulating investment, remains. As in the past, Bank Group assistance for projects in India should include, as appropriate, the financing of local expenditures. India imports relatively few capital goods because of the capacity and competitiveness of the domestic capital goods industry. Consequently, the foreign exchange component tends to be small in most projects. This is particularly the case in such high-priority sectors as agriculture, irrigation, and water supply. 24. India's poverty and needs are such that as much as possible of India's external capital requirements should be provided on concessionary terms. Accordingly, the bulk of the Bank Group assistance to India has been, and should continue to be, provided from IDA. However, the amount of IDA funds that can reasonably be allocated to India remains small in relation to India's needs for external support, and India should be regarded as credit- worthy for some supplemental Bank lending. The ratio of India's debt service to the level of exports was 12% in 1978/79 and is projected to remain below 20% through 1995/96. As of March 31, 1980, outstanding loans to India held by the Bank totaled US$1,516 million, of which US$556 million remained to be disbursed, leaving a net amount outstanding of US$960 million. 25. Of the external assistance received by India, the proportion con- tributed by the Bank Group has grown significantly. In 1969/70, the Bank Group accounted for 34% of total commitments, 13% of gross disbursements, and 12% of net disbursements as compared with an estimated 62%, 27% and 38%, respectively, in 1978/79. On March 31, 1979, India's outstanding and dis- bursed external public debt was US$15.3 billion, of which the Bank Group's share was US$4.6 billion or 30% (IDA's US$4.0 billion and IBRD's US$0.6 bil- lion). Because Bank Group assistance to India is predominantly in the form of IDA credits, debt service to the Bank Group will rise slowly. In 1978/79, about 17.5% of India's total debt service payments were to the Bank Group.  - 9 - PART III - THE WATER SUPPLY AND SEWERAGE SECTOR IN RAJASTHAN Background 26. Although State Governments in India have primary responsibility for the development of water supply and sewerage facilities, the Central Government, through its five-year plans and/or special programs, has considerable influence on sector development. Funds are normally allocated by the Government of India (GOI) in the form of grants and loans, which State Governments supplement with local resources. The States execute their responsibilities through various departments and agencies, which in turn may delegate part or all of their duties to local authorities. 27. Since the early 1950's State Governments have endeavored to meet the increasing demand for services caused by rapidly expanding population and unpre- cedented rates of urban growth. Competing demands for resources from other high priority sectors, lack of management and planning skills, and shortages of key material and equipment have resulted in only 1 to 2% of developmental expendi- tures being invested in the water supply and sewerage sector. 28. The present levels of water supply and sewerage services in India reflect the history of relatively small investments against a background of rising population and urbanization. In 1976, GOI estimated that only 148 million people or about 24% of India's total population of 618 million had access to r2asonably safe drinking water and even fewer had acceptable means of disposal of sewag. Rajasthan Water Supply and Sewerage Sector 29. The State of Rajasthan, located in the northwestern part of India, covers an area of about 342,000 km . The topography of the State is prin- cipally desert or semi-desert. Rajasthan's population, reported as 25.8 million at the 1971 census, is estimated to have increased to about 32 mil- lion by 1979, of which about 80% live in rural areas (33,305 villages), and the balance in ab?ut 175 cities and towns. The population density averages 90 persons per kmi2, which is much lower than the overall average for India of 200 persons/km . 30. Rajasthan's economy is primarily based on agriculture from which about 56% of its total income is derived. The per capita income (1977/78) in Rajasthan of Rs 925 (US$110) is about 20% below the all-India average. There are no perennial rivers in the State's,western desert areas where the main surface water source is the Rajasthan irrigation canal system. The eastern districts are covered by river systems with highly variable dry-wet season flows and include some minor lakes. The Rajasthan Groundwater Depart- ment has comprehensively surveyed the State's geological formations and reported that groundwater availability is scarce and its quality frequently poor or unacceptable because of high salinity or excessive fluoride content. The water supply situation is severe and remote water sources must be dev- eloped to satisfy consumer needs for reasonable quality water. 31. About 75% (19 million) of Rajasthan's rural population (26 million) live in so-called "problem villages" where the water quality is a potential  - 10 - health hazard or the source is located a great distance away from or is inaccessible to consumers. By 1979, about 30% of the population of these problem villages had been provided with piped water supplies, leaving about 14 million without any satisfactory source of water. All urban areas are presently supplied with water with about 60% of ithe population served by piped water through private connections and the remaining 40% by standposts or other means. The supply is inadequate and generally intermittent, the pressure low, and the distribution uneven. There is need for further extension of supplies to ensure a wider coverage of the population in both urban and rural areas. 32. Sewerage systems in Rajasthan exist in two cities (Jaipur and Jodhpur) and serve only about 5% of the total urban population. The bulk of the population rely on a dry latrine conservancy system or have no sanitary facilities at all. Sanitary conditions, particularly in congested urban areas, are poor and steadily deteriorating. 33. The provision of satisfactory water supplies in Rajasthan's rural and urban areas, and sewerage systems in urban areas would require substantial investments which cannot reasonably be met within the foreseeable future. According to State priorities for this sector, the immediate objective is to provide water supplies to the problem villages, and water supplies and sewerage to the major cities. In order to achieve these objectives, sector investments will have to be increased significantly, more appropriate cost recovery systems introduced and project implementation and system operation capacity further developed and strengthened. Sector Organization and Development 34. Since 1965, responsibility for the water supply and sewerage sector has been concentrated in the Public Health Engineering Department (PHED). The PHED undertook project planning and construction, as well as operation and maintenance of urban and rural water supply systemns, while the operation of sewerage systems remained with local authorities. In order to better cope with the needs of the sector, the State Governmenlt has revised the existing institutional arrangements to provide for greater operational flexibility. Under a Government Order dated April 28, 1980, effective May 1, 1980 the Rajasthan Water Supply and Sewerage Management Board (RWSSB), working under the guidance of a Committee of Direction made up of the State Ministers responsible for PHED, Fiinance and Planning, has been given the overall res- ponsibility for directing PHED's sectoral development efforts. 35. RWSSB is responsible for all sector activities, including the opera- tion and maintenance of water supply and sewerage systems. GOR does not ex- clude the possibility of the ultimate development of a two-tier system by the transfer of responsibility for operation and maintenance of water supply and sewerage works from RWSSB to local authorities. Any such transfer would, how- ever, not take place prior to April 1, 1986, and would be subject to the local authority meeting specific criteria designed to ensure that sound financial and operational practices are maintained (Section 2.19 of the Project Agreement). The creation of RWSSB is a step forward in the development of the sector and consultant assistance will be used for the preparation of proper managerial, organizational, staffing and accounting procedures and systems which RWSSB would install in PHED in accordance with an agreed timetable.  - 11 - Sector Investment and Viability 36. Investment in the State's water supply and sewerage program was approximately Rs 1,392 million (US$166 million) during the period FY1950/51 through FY1979/80. Capital investments in the sector for FY1978/79 amounted to Rs 186 million (US$22 million) and GOR's budgetary allocation for FY1979/80 is Rs 263 million (US$31 million). From FY1980/81 through FY1984/85, when the proposed project would be implemented, GOR's annual investment in the water supply and sewerage sector is projected to average about Rs 500 million (US$60 million). 37. GOR funding of investments in the water supply and sewerage sector was previously entirely on a grant basis. GOR proposes to continue to cover capital investments by grants, but for urban water supply, and for the purpose of maintaining commercial accounts for the proposed project, such investments would be considered as though they were financed through loans. GOR has increased its water supply tariffs for all user categories in urban areas effective April 1, 1979. As a result, revenues from urban water supply are expected to cover operational costs and depreciation in FY1979/80. In rural areas, charges are imposed for private connections only, and revenues are therefore inadequate to cover total operating costs which are incurred primarily to provide standpost water to most of the rural population. Resulting deficits have been met through GOR budgetary allocations. The State Government objective is to make the sector financially viable from FY1980/81 through further increases in tariff levels in urban areas, levying charges for urban sewerage and standposts, and the intro- duction of cost recovery measures in rural areas commensurate with the bene- ficiaries' ability to pay (see paras 51-55). Other Bank Group Activities in Rajasthan 38. The first Bank Group projects in Rajasthan were a US$52 million loan (Ln. 1011-IN of June 19, 1974) for the development of the Chambal Irrigation Canal command area and a US$83 million credit (Cr. 502-IN of July 31, 1974) for development in the Rajasthan Canal command area. These projects pioneered the new agricultural extension and research systems in India with encouraging results. Other components of these projects are also proceeding satisfactor- ily. The Rajasthan Agricultural Extension and Research Project (Credit 737-IN of November 14, 1977) further extends the Bank Group's participation in the development of extension and research systems to 17 of Rajasthan's 26 district with good results in terms of increased crop yields. In addition, a Rajasthan Dairy Development Project (Cr. 521-IN of December 18, 1974) is currently being implemented with satisfactory results. The Bank Group is also assisting two low-rainfall districts of northwestern Rajasthan under the Drought Prone Areas Project (Cr. 526-IN of January 24, 1975). This project which is designed to increase and stabilize production in selected districts, is proceeding satis- factorily. Additional information on these projects is contained in Annex II. PART IV - THE PROJECT 39. The proposed project was prepared by PHED with assistance from Bank Staff and consultants and was appraised in November/December 1979. The Staff  - 12 - Appraisal Report (No. 2865b-IN, dated May 19, 1980) is being distributed separately. Negotiations were held in Washington in May 1980, with Mr. B. S. Lamba of the Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, as co- ordinator of the Indian delegation. Project Description 40. The proposed project would be implementecd over five years and covers approximately 54% of the water supply and sewerage program to be implemented by GOR through fiscal year 1984/85. The water supply component of the project would provide for the treatment, transmission and distribution of an additional 242 million liters per day (mld) of piped water to four rapidly expanding cities (Jaipur, Jodhpur, Kota, Bikaner), and improve and extend the sewerage system in three of these cities (Jaipur, Jodhpur and Bikaner). The project would also provide new piped water to about 2,000 problem villages located in ten districts. By 1985, the entire population of 2.4 million in the urban areas and about 1.7 million people in the rural areas covered by the project would receive a safe supply of water through private connections and public standposts. The sewerage component would cover only the congested areas of the project cities where the conservancy system is predominantly used. 41. The proposed water supply works in the four cities include the construction of tubewells, service reservoirs, transmission and distribution mains, treatment works and about 95,000 connections. The sewerage component would provide for laterals, interceptors, outfall mains, disposal works and about 38,000 sewer ccinections. The project also includes consultant studies for organization and 3taffing, accounting and project monitoring systems, tariffs, detailed engineering, and health education. Project Implementation 42. Under the overall direction of RWSSB, PHE]D will be responsible for project implementation and system operation and maintenance of water supply and sewerage in urban areas and water supply in rural areas. Sewerage systems, presently the responsibility of local bodies, will be transferred to the State Government by April 1, 1981 and placed under RWSSB (Section 2.16 of the Project Agreement). However, for reasons of economy and in order to encourage local involvement, simple rural water supply schemes will be operated by participat- ing local bodies. RWSSB will, however, be responsible for providing facilities through PHED to ensure that they maintain satisfactory operational standards. 43. RWSSB is made up of a Chairman-cum-Administrator of the rank of Secretary to the Government, a full-time Financial Adviser, four ex-officio Secretaries to the State Government and the senior-most Chief Engineer of PHED working full time as a Technical Member on the Board. The Technical Member will be responsible for the day-to-day operations of PHED under the Board's direction. PHED is staffed with adequately experienced personnel to carry out general design and construction work. PHED would be organized on a functional basis with separate departments for project planning and design, construction, operation, finance and administration. The departments would be organized into circles, made up of five divisions/subdivisions to a circle. Since a substantial increase in work is anticipated on account of the large number  - 13 - of schemes being commissioned under the proposed project, the operations department of PHED would be strengthened and expanded. RWSSB has engaged consultants to undertake a study of the manpower and staffing requirements of PHED in the context of the proposed project to assict it in the develop- ment of a staff recruitment schedule to be implemented by April 1, 1981. PHED engineering and operational staff are trained on the job after recruit- ment or reassignment. Some training in design work by consultants was undertaken during project preparation. Training in accounting and financial management has been included in the terms of reference of the accounting consultant already appointed. The terms of reference of the consultant already appointed for establishing monitoring and reporting systems include provision for the training of PHED's staff. Additionally, a training consul- tant has been appointed with specific responsibility for the preparation of an overall training program for PHED. By April 1, 1981, an adequately staffed training unit would be established within PHED to begin implementing the training program (Section 2.12 of the Project Agreement). Project Cost and Financing 44. The estimated cost of the proposed project is about US$164 million equivalent, including about US$5 million of taxes and duties. The principal components, net of contingencies, are rural water supplies (US$37.2 million), urban water supplies (US$44.1 million); urban sewerage (US$9.3 million), engi- neering costs (US$21.4 million) and consultant services and training (US$1.5 million). Physical contingencies (US$12.8 million) average about 10% for rural areas and 15% for urban areas. For the raw water transmission main for Jodhpur, 25% has been applied because of technical uncertainties. Price contingencies of 8% for FY80, 10% for FY81, 7% for FY82-FY84 and 5% thereafter have been applied and total about 23% of total project costs (US$37.7 million). Approximately 900 man-months of consultant services would be needed for the project, of which about 10 are expected to be for foreign consultants. The average man-month cost including salary, costs, fees, international travel, when appropriate, and subsistence is expected to be about US$10,000 for foreign consultants and US$1,000 for local consultants. In addition to these personnel costs, the contract cost would include the cost of vehicles, drill- ing equipment, local transportation and local office operating expenses. 45. The proposed credit of US$80 million equivalent would finance about 50% of project costs, net of duties and taxes. The credit would finance all direct and indirect foreign exchange costs (about US$22 million) and US$58 million of local costs. The balance of the funding required for the project (approximately US$84 million) will be made available by GOR. Retroactive financing of up to US$500,000 is proposed to cover expenditures incurred in hiring consultants after May 1, 1979 for the timely implementation of this project (paragraph 4 of Schedule 1 to the Development Credit Agreement). Procurement and Disbursement 46. Contracts for equipment and material, estimated at about US$65 million, would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding (ICB) in accordance with IDA's guidelines for procurement. A preference margin of 15% or the current import duty, whichever is lower, would be granted  - 14 - to local manufacturers in bid evaluation. Other contracts for equipment and material would involve either small items (below US$150,000) which cannot readily be grouped into larger bulk contracts and are more suitable for decentralized procurement, or items unsuitable for ICB because of high trans- portation costs and/or high risk of damage in transit (e.g., cencrete and stoneware pipes). These contracts, estimated at about US$15 million, would be awarded on the basis of local competitive bidding (LCB) in accordance with local bidding procedures satisfactory to IDA. 47. The total value of civil works under the project is estimated at US$52 million, including contingencies. Because of the dispersed nature of the project and the limited possibilities of grouping the contracts, there would be about 400 civil works contracts involved in rural areas and about 80 in urban areas. Only one contract, involving the laying of a transmission main to the city of Jodhplar would be large--of the order of US$26 million, including contingencies--while the average size of the other contracts would be about US$50,000 in rural areas, and US$300,000 in urban areas. The majority of the contracts would comprise labor-intensive pipe laying works. The contract for the transmission main for Jodhpur would be awarded on the basis of ICB, while the balance of civil works contracts would be awarded on the basis of LCB, or in exceptional cases be executed by force account. A margin of preference of 7.5% would be granted to local contractors in bid evaluation under ICB. 48. The proceeds of the proposed credit would be disbursed as follows: (i) for equipment and material contracts, 100% of foreign expenditures, 100% of local expenditures (ex-factory costs) or 35% of Local expenditures for locally procured goods; (ii) for civil works 100% oE foreign expenditures and 35% of local costs; and (iii) consultant services and staff training, 100% of costs. Disbursements against civil works for one or more progress payments not exceeding Rs 300,000 (about US$35,700) and for material and equipment contracts for payments not exceeding Rs 150,000 (about US$17,900) would be on the basis of statements of expenditures. The supporting documentation for these expenditures would be subject to local audit and would be retained for inspection by review missions. Disbursements against expenditures for all other items would be fully documented. Financial Results and Accounts 49. PHED presently maintains its accounts on a simple cash basis in accordance with government practices. These cash records, however, do not provide adequate financiaL data to evaluate performance. A restatement of PHED's accounts in a commercial manner indicate that prior to FY1979/80, revenues from water supply operations in urban and rural areas have been inadequate to cover operating costs. The operating deficits on urban water supply services in FY1977,/78 and FY1978/79 were Rs 25.7 million (US$3.1 million) and Rs 31.2 million (US$3.7 million), respectively. Corresponding figures for rural water supply operations for the same years were Rs 29.5 million (US$3.5 million) and Rs 34.0 million (US$4.0 million). 50. Under the project, consultants have been appointed to establish a commercial accounting system to be implemented not 'Later than April 1, 1981 (Section 3.02(a) of the Project Agreement). The commercial accounting system  - 15 - will be supplemental to the governments own accounting system and will provide for billing and collection practices which will be designed to ensure that commencing with fiscal year 1981/82 accounts receivable will not exceed the value of three months' billings to customers in urban areas or four months billings to the local bodies in the rural areas (Section 3.04 of the Project Agreement). Tariffs 51. Until recently, tariff levels in urban areas were inadequate to provide sufficient revenues to cover operational costs. Action already taken by GOR on April 1, 1979, has resulted in increased tariffs per 1,000 liters for urban water from Rs 0.60 (US$0.07) to Rs 0.80 (US$0.09) for domestic consumers, from Rs 0.90 (US$0.11) to Rs 1.20 (US$0.14) for commercial users, and from Rs 0.90 to Rs 1.60 (US$0.19) for industrial users. This increase is expected to enable RWSSB to cover its running costs and depreciation in FY1979/80. 52. The project provides for a tariff study to assist the development of a new structure and establish rates which will maximize income, minimize waste and provide a reasonable level of service to the lower income groups at a price they can afford. The study would also evaluate whether rates should be applied uniformly to all urban areas or be adjusted to suit particular local conditions. It is expected that the new tariff policy will be intro- duced by April 1, 1981 based on the recommendations of the tariff study (Section 2.15 of the Project Agreement). 53. With the introduction of the new tariff policy, RWSSB should be able to develop a sound financial position for its urban operations through- out the project period. Its revenues should be adequate to cover its operat- ing expenses, including depreciation or debt service, whichever is the greater, for fiscal year 1981, and be adequate to produce a rate of return on net fixed assets of at least 2% for fiscal year 1982, 3% for fiscal year 1983, 5% for fiscal year 1984, and 8% for fiscal year 1985 and thereafter (Section 3.03 of the Project Agreement). These targets imply that RWSSB would have to increase tariffs for domestic consumers in all urban areas from the existing rate of Rs 0.80 per 1,000 liters to an average rate of Rs 1.15 (US$0.13) per 1,000 liters by fiscal year 1984/85. Corresponding increases for commercial and industrial users would be Rs 1.71 (US$0.20) and Rs 2.30 (US$0.27), respec- tively. In the city of Jodhpur, however, it will be necessary to substan- tially increase the rate in 1985 to approximately double the average 1984/85 rate for other urban areas to justify the significant investment costs involved in construction of the Jodhpur raw water transmission main. RWSSB also plans to initiate a sewerage charge effective April 1, 1981, following the transfer of responsibility for providing the sewerage service from the municipalities to RWSSB (Section 2.16 (b) of the Project Agreement). This sewerage charge is expected to be equivalent to about 40% of the current water rate and would apply to all premises with a water connection and within a prescribed distance from a sewer main (Section 2.15 (ii) of the Project Agreement). 54. Standpost water supply in urban areas is presently provided free of charge. Under the project, GOR will initiate a charge for standpost water supply which would be borne by the appropriate local body and recovered  - 16 - from users. The charge is to be based on a rate of one rupee per month per person being served by the facility. In the case of non-payment by the local body, GOR will reimburse PHED for any shortfall in payments (Section 2.17 of the Project Agreement). 55. In rural areas there is presently no charge levied for standpost water supply and the charge for water connections is at a flat rate of Rs 8 (US$0.95) per month. RWSSB plans to meet the operating and maintenance costs of its rural water supply system from fiscal year 1981 and would be required to ensure that each participating local authority would contribute the equiva- lent of 2.5% towards the capital costs of its schemes (Section 2.14(b) and (a) of the Project Agreement). In order to achieve this result, RWSSB would be required to increase its rural water charges to an equivalent of a Rs 10 (US$1.19) per month for water connections and Rs 1 (US$0.12) per head per month for water supplied through standposts. The local bodies would be responsible for paying RWSSB for this service and for recovering the costs involved. It is expected that charges for individual rural water supply schemes would be based on the size of the population served, with procedures for its collection adjusted to meet particular local conditions. This approach is largely untested and some collection problems can be anticipated. Consequently, GOR would be responsible for making up for any shortfall in the collection of such charges (Section 2.14(c) of the Project Agreement). Benefit-Cost Justification 56. Th2 project wouLd increase the population served with water supply in the four cities by 41' from about 1.7 million in 1979 to about 2.4 million in 1985. Consumption levels in these cities would rise by approximately 6 lcd from its present level of 130 lcd during the same period. The population provided with sewerage in the three project cities would increase by 130% from about 283,000 (1979) to about 659,000 (1985). The 2,000 or so villages covered by the project presently served with unsafe water drawn from wells and other occasional sources will receive a constant supply of about 50 lcd of safe piped water which would be adequate to meet domestic needs. The population served in these villages will increase to about 1.7 million by 1985. 57. The average costs for water supply and sewerage vary significantly between the four cities but the recommended technical solutions (choice of water source, network configuration, staging of construction, etc.) are based on least-cost considerations, amounting to about US$38 per capita for rural water supply, US$36 per capita for urban water supply and US$27 per capita for sewerage calculated on, the basis of the population served in FY85. The internal rate of return is about 4% for the four cities if labor is valued at its full market price and about 6% if labor is valued at 75% of its market price. These rates are reasonable, considering the fact that water is scarce commodity in Rajasthan, with economic and social value considerably exceeding its tariff. Furthermore, the present level of tariffs in Rajasthan is already among the highest in India. In order to arrive at the foregoing financial results, tariffs for domestic consumers would have to increase in the project cities (except for Jodhpur) from the existing average rate of approximately Rs 0.80 (US$0.09) to an average rate of Rs 1.15 (US$0.13) per 1,000 liters for FY84/85. These rates would approximate to about 3-4% of average family  - 1 7 - income which would still be within the consumer's ability to pay. In Jodhpur the rates would amount to about 6% of average family income (see para 53). 58. The project will enable all sections of the urban and rural com- munity, including the urban and rural poor, to have access to piped supplies of potable water. The provision of water supplies in rural areas would in particular help to alleviate the hardship, drudgery and disease which result from the present arrangements for water supply. The project would develop RWSSB's capability in planning and executing programs through the provision of additional training for technical and administrative personnel of PHED. The project would also foster the practices and concepts of sound engineering, cost recovery and efficiency pricing in the public sector. 59. The total population to be served with piped water on completion of the project would amount to 4.1 million, made up of 2.4 million in the urban areas, and about 1.7 million in the rural communities, many of whom belong to the lower income groups. Approximately, 5,000 standposts would be provided in rural areas to serve the needs of the rural population. This would help to reduce the daily waiting time for water and shorten walking distances. Apart from a limited number of standpipes to serve the slum areas, the remaining urban population would be served by metered connections. Also concessional credit would be extended by RWSSB to the lower income groups of the community to facilitate sewer connections and to meet basic plumbing installation costs (Section 2.13 of the Project Agreement). 60. Available health statistics do not record the incidence of water- and sanitation-related diseases throughout the project area. However, Rajasthan water sources have a long history of guinea worm infestation and excessive fluoride. The proposed project would minimize the incidence of disease resulting from water that has been so contaminated. The resulting health benefits, which are expected to be significant, have not been quan- tified. 61. The risks involved in the project are no greater than can normally be expected with operations of this type. The GOR sector development plan presently under execution is ambitious and a considerable effort is required for its timely implementation; therefore, the possibilities for delays cannot be excluded. With appropriate consultant assistance and adequate monitoring to ensure the timeliness of financial and other resources, completion of the project within the planned period would seem likely. 62. The proposed cost recovery system in rural areas is untested and the revenue collection from standpost users in both rural and urban areas might not be realized as projected. However, arrangements have been made under the project for GOR to meet any shortfalls in covering the operation and main- tenance costs and to recover them from funds allocated to the defaulting local authority.  - 18 - PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENT AND AUTHORITY 63. The draft Development Credit Agreement between India and the Asso- ciation, the draft Project Agreement between the Association and the Govern- ment of Rajasthan and the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section 1 (d), of the Articles of Agreement are being distributed to Executive Directors separately. 64. Special conditions of the project are listed in Section III of Annex III. 65. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 66. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed credit. Robert S. McNamara President June 2, 1980  ANNEX I IYDA - SOCUL INDICATORS DA TA S1 Page 1 of 5 RUEERECE GROUPS (ADJUSTED A*AGES LAND AREA (THOUSAND SQ. EK.) - MOST CENT ESTIMTE) TOTAL 3287.6 54E SAME NEIT 8IG1E6 AGRICULTIRL 1818.3 MST RECENT GEOGRAPIC INCOME NCOME 1960 lb 1970 A ESTIMATE A REGION L GROUP d GROUP GNP PER CAPITA (USS) 60.0 90.0 I80.0 191.1 209.6 467.5 ENERGY CONSUEPTTON P2R CAPITA (KILOGRAMS O COAL EQ0IVALIT) 142.0 181.0 218.0 69.1 83.9 262.1 POPULATION AID VITAL STATISTICS POPMTLTION, =-YEAR (MILLIONS) 434.9 547.6 631.7Lf UN POPUI.ATION (PERCIT Of TOL) 17.9 19.7 20.7. 13.2 16.2 24.6 POPLATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YUR 2000 MILL0INS) 973.0 STATIONARY POPLATION (MILLIONS) 1643.0 TEAR STATIONXAY POPULATION IS EAUED 2150 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. 4. 132.0 167.0 192.0 86.6 49.4 45.3 PER SQ. 1U4. AGRICLTURL 247.0 30S.0 347.0 330.2 252.0 149.0 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCEST) 0-14 YnS. 40.8 42.5 42.0 44.3 43.1 45.2 15-64 YnS. 55.7 54.6 55.0 52.4 53.2 51.9 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 3.5 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.8 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PU1CEDST) TOTAL 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.7 tREAN 2.SLa 3.3 3.1 4.1 4.6 4.3 CRUDE BIRTE RATE (PER TImUSD) 43.0 40.0 35.0 44.4 42.4 39.4 CRUDE DEATN RATE (PEuL TOUSAND) 21.0 17.0 14.0 16.4 15.9 11.7 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.2 2.9 2.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 'AMILY PLANTING ACCEPTORS. ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) 64.0 3782.0 4518.0 USERS (PERCENT OP MAID WOMN) .. 12.0 16.9 7.9 12.2 13.2 FOOD AND NUTRITION SNDEX OF FOOD PRODUCaION P2i CAPITA (1969-71-100) 100.0 102.0 101.0 99.4 98.2 99.6 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT 0P REQUIREMENTS) 95.0 92.0 89.0 93.0 93.3 94.7 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 51.0 53.0 48.0 56.1 52.1 54.3 OF WIIICH ANIAL MMD PULSE 19.0 16.0 12.6 10.4 13.6 17.4 CHILD (AGES 1-4) N4XTALITY RATE 28.0 22.0 18.0 19.2 18.5 11.4 REALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT SLRTH (TEYRS) 43.0 48.0 51.0 49.1 49.3 54.7 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PU THOUSAND) - 134.0 .. .. 105.4 6S.1 ACCESS TO SAP! WATE (PEENT 0p POPULATION) MOTAL * 17.0 33.0 31.5 26.3 34.4 DREAN .. 60.0 83.0 63.9 58.5 57.9 RURAL .. 6.0 20.0 20.1 15.8 21.2 ACCESS TO EXCIEZTA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL *- 18.0 20.0 15.7 16.0 40.8 URSAN .. 85.0 87.0 66.8 65.1 71.3 RURAL .. 1.0 2.0 2.5 3.5 27.7 OpULATIOnm PER PTSICcIN 5800.OLh 4S90.0 3135.0 7107.9 11396.4 6799.4 POPULATION PER NRING PFSON 9630.OA 5220.0 6320.0 12064.0 5552.4 1522.1 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 2590./i 2020.0 1231.0 Z738.4 1417.1 726.5 0RSAN .. .. .. .. 197.3 272.7 RURAL .. .. .. .. 2445.9 1404.4 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. .. .. .. 24.8 27.5 HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUStEOLD -OTAL 5.2 .. 5.2 *- 5.3 5.4 UIBAN 5.2 * 4. 8 4 4.9 5.1 RURAL 5.2 .. 5.3 .. '.4 5.5 AVERAGE UNNER OF PERSONS PER ROOM -OTAL 2.6 2.S .. UR3AN .. .. .. RL'RAL .. .. .. ACCESS -0 -ILECTRICITY (PERCENT OF WNE'LL:SGS) ,OtAL . . .. .. . 22.5 2'.1 'SAN .. .. .5 .. 17. a 5.1 RURAL .. .. .. .. . 9.3  ANNEX I Page 2 of 5 INDIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET INDIA REFERENCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED AyERAGES INDLA - HOST RECENT ESTIMATE) - SUi