Jordan - Urban Development Project

Document of fILE COPY The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Repert No. P-2857-JO REPORT AND RECOMIMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN FOR AN URBAN DEVELOPMENT PROJECT June 25, 1980 This documnt bha a resicted dlslbundon an may be used by recipient only in te peromn d Itheir sciad u"ts. ts contts my Sot otherwise be disosed witout Wordd Dnk athoIuaton.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Calendar 1979 April 1980 Currency Unit m Jordan Dinar (JD) Jordan Dinar (JD) JD 0.295 - US$1.00 US$l.O0 JD 1.00 . US$3.39 US$3.39 JD 1.00 - 1,000 fils 1,000 fils FISCAL YEAR = CALENDAR YEAR ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AURPG . Amman Urban Region Planning Group ANSA - Amman Water & Sewerage Authority CVDB - Cities and Villages Development Bank HB - Housing Bank IDB - Industrial Development Bank JEPCO - Jordan Electric Power Company ;RA - Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs NHC - National Housing Corporation NPC - National Planning Council SSIHP - Small Scale Industry and Handicraft Program USAID - United States Agency for International Development UDD - Urban Development Department VTC - Vocational Training Corporation WSC - Water Supply Corporation  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY JORDAN URBAN DEVELOPMENT PROJECT LOAN AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan Beneficiaries: The Housing Bank (HB) and the Industrial Development Bank (IDB) Amount: US$21.0 million Terms: 17 years, including 4 years of grace at an interest rate of 8.25 percent per annum. Relending Terms: The Borrower will relend $13.9 million of the loan proceeds to the Housing Bank at 8.25 percent for 20 years, including 4 years of grace, and will relend $0.85 million to the Industrial Development Bank at 6.5 percent for 10 years including 3 years of grace. The Borrower will make the remaining $6.25 million available to the Housing Bank for the financing of project facilities whose costs are non-recoverable from project beneficiaries. The Government will bear the foreign exchange risk. Project Description: The primary objective of this first Bank-financed urban project in Jordan is to provide shelter and related infrastructure and community facilities to low income groups at affordable prices with a minimum of subsidies to assure replicability. The project also aims at improving productivity of low-income urban residents. Specifically, the project would consist of the following components: a) Provision of about 5,000 serviced plots under three sites and services schemes at North Ruseifa, Marka, and Quweismeh; b) Upgrading of four low income settlements in the City of Amman at Jofeh, Wadi Hadr,adah, East Wahdat, and Wadi Umm er Rimam; c) Small business assistance arid manpower training; d) Consultancy services for project management, design and supervision, and studies; e) Provision of equipment for otnicipal maintenance services. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their oMcial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  - ii - The project would provide housing for 41,000 low income residents to be located in the three sites and services areas and improved housing for an additional 15,000 in the upgrading areas and represents a first step in the development of a revised strategy for providing decent housing to the urban poor in Jordan at affordable prices. The project also would strengthen local orga- nizational and institutional capability in the sector to foster its replicability. The project has two main risks: Firstly, its emphasis on cost recovery, includ- ing a higher interest rate charge under this project compared with conventional housing schemes, is polit- ically and socially sensitive and will require continu- ing strong Government support. Secondly, project implementation may be hampered by institutional weakness due to shortage of trained staff. However, the Govern- ment has indicated its strong commitment to the project and considerable amount of consultancy services have been included in the project to assist in implementa- tion. Estimated Costs: 1/ Local Foreign Total --------US$ million-------- Land 11.14 - 11.14 Sites & Services 15.05 7.25 22.30 Upgrading 2.83 1.14 3.97 Small Business Assistance 2.21 1.09 3.30 Design, Supervision, Project Mgt and Studies 3.12 2.06 5.18 Municipal Service Equipment - 0.51 0.51 Contingencies Physical 1.88 0.91 2.79 Price 5.44 3.00 8.44 Total Project Costs 41.67 15.96 57.63 Financing Plan: Local Foreign Total --------US$ million -------- IBRD 5.0 16.0 21.0 Government of Jordan 11.9 - 11.9 Housing Bank of Jordan 24.7 - 24.7 41.6 16.0 57.6 1/ Includes custom duties and import taxes (about US$2.3 million).  - iii - Estimated Disbursements: Bank FY 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 --------------US$ million------------ Annual 0.7 4.4 7.5 5.8 2.6 Cumulative 0.7 5.1 12.6 18.4 21.0 Rate of Return: 20 percent (Sites & Services, and Upgrading Components) Appraisal Report: Report No. 2974-JO, dated June 23, 1980 Map: IBRD No. 14781   INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE IBRD TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN FOR AN URBAN DEVELOPMENT PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed Bank loan of US$21.0 million equivalent to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan to help finance an Urban Development project. The loan will have a term of 17 years, including 4 years of grace, with interest at 8.25 percent per annum. The Government will relend $13.9 million of the loan proceeds to the Housing Bank at 8.25 percent for 20 years including 4 years of grace and will relend $0.85 million to the Industrial Development Bank at 6.5 percent for 10 years including 3 years of grace. The Borrower will make the remaining $6.25 million available to the Housing Bank for the financing of project facilities such as schools, vocational training facilities, and community facilities whose costs are non-recoverable and which would be later transferred to other Government agencies. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. A report entitled "Country Economic Memorandum on Jordan" (No. 1738-JO, dated January 9, 1978) was distributed to the Executive Directors on January 19, 1978. An updating economic mission visited Jordan in July 1978 and its findings are reflected in this report. Another updating economic mission visited Jordan in February 1980 and its report is under preparation. Country data sheets are attached as Annex 1. 3. Jordan is a small country of 2.2 million people (East Bank). Due to limited natural resources, the structure of output and employment is service and trade-dominated. The economy's service-oriented character is reflected in Jordan's increasing role as a provider of manpower to neighboring countries and a regional tourist center, particularly since the disruptions in Lebanon. Jordan has benefited from its regional setting in terms of foreign exchange inflows in the form of external grants, workers' remittances, exports and tourism revenues. However, costs of this role to the economy have included the outflow of scarce skilled labor and the persistence of a domestic saving constraint due to the high defense expenditures and the impetus towards higher consumption. Recent Developments 4. During the Three-Year Plan (1973-75), GDP grew at about 5 percent per year. Agriculture stagnated as a result of droughts while the industrial sector increased its share of GDP, mainly due to increased production and prices of phosphates and rapid growth in manufacturing output, encouraged by higher domestic and external demand. Since the country embarked on a Five- Year Development Plan in early 1976, overall economic growth has accelerated. 1/ Part I of this report is essentially identical to paragraphs 2-16 of the President's Report No. P-2738-JO on a Loan for the Cities and Villages Development Bank Project, dated March 10, 1980.  Between 1976 and 1978 GDP at market prices grew at about ten percent in real terms led by a strong growth in agriculture (13 percent per year) and industry (15 percent per year). Investment expenditures, which averaged 28 percent of GDP in 1973-1975, have accelerated further reaching 41 and 39 percent of GDP in 1977 and 1978. This strong upward trend in investment expenditure reflects the increased availability of foreign resources in the form of grants, foreign loans and labor remittances. 5. The increased investment efforts have led to rapidly rising imports and widening trade deficit. Nevertheless, the overall balance of payments position has remained strong owing to a significant increase in exports in recent years, increased earnings from tourism and workers' remittances and the large inflow of foreign aid. Despite a decline in earnings from phosphates, between 1975 and 1978, export earnings increased by 18 percent per year (in current dollar terms), mainly due to an increase in manufactured good exports, aided by higher prices of fruit and vegetable exports. Imports in the mean- while rose by 25 percent per year, owing mainly to an increase in raw material and capital good imports. In 1978, however, the growth of imports slowed down to about 12 percent over 1977 due to the completion of important projects. During the period 1975-1978 Jordan's net earnings on services almost tripled to over $400 million in 1978 as a result of increasing inflows of remittances (encouraged by the climate of financial stability in Jordan and the boom in real estate) and earnings from tourism. Inflow of foreign aid, although fluctuating from year to year, continues to play a key role in the Jordanian economy. After peaking to over $500 million in 1977, foreign aid declined to about $330 million in 1978. Following the Baghdad Conference in November 1978, inflows are rising again and are likely to amount to a record high of about $1.0 billion in 1979. The level of gross reserves increased substan- tially to $923 million at. end-1978 (equivalent to about 7 months of imports), partly because of foreign exchange appreciation. 6. Although the Government budget is still heavily dependent on foreign grants, some improvements have been made in expanding domestic revenues, which accounted in 1978 for about 52 percent of total revenues as compared to 42 percent in 1975-1977. The increase in domestic revenues was mainly due to increased custom duties, a higher tax rate on corporate profits and improved collection of personal income tax. Despite a doubling of domestic revenues and the sizeable inflow of foreign grants over the period 1975-1978, the budget deficit increased considerably as a result of stepped up government expenditure on both the recurrent (68 percent increase) and capital (95 percent increase) accounts. Partly also as a result of the decline in foreign grants, the budget deficit was at a record high of JD 114 million in 1978 (20 percent of GDP). 7. The domestic budget deficit, combined with accelerated private sector credit led in 1978 to a 36 percent growth rate in domestic liquidity (compared with 23 percent in 1977). The acceleration in the growth of private sector credit reflected a policy decision to encourage economic activity following the slowdown experienced in 1977. The inflationary impact was somewhat mitigated both by the propensity of Jordanians to hold cash balances and the tendency of commercial banks to hold liquid reserves at higher-than- required levels. Large amounts of credit were directed to the tertiary sector  and revived construction activities. Industrial investment has in the past relied largely on retained earnings or direct support from Government but is now relying more upon financial resources mobilized by the banking sector. Also, the Amman Stock Exchange has been instrumental in mobilizing financial resources for industrial enterprises since its inception in January 1977. Its activities were reinforced by the creation of a Jordan Securities Corporation with IFC's assistance. Lending to industry amounted to 11 percent of all outstanding credit at the end of 1978. 8. The cost of living index increased by nearly 15 percent per year during 1973-76. The rate of increase since dropped to 11 percent in 1977 and 7 percent in 1978. Inflationary pressures resulted from both domestic and external factors. Some causes of inflation were external, such as the sharp rise in the prices of imported goods, strong demand for Jordanian goods and services by neighboring countries, growing inflows of workers' remittances, and the speculation in real estate which accompanied the influx of refugees and businesses from Lebanon. 9. Partly as a result of the continuing migration of Jordanian labor to neighboring countries and partly because of rapid economic growth, the labor market has now reached a situation of full employment except in the rainfed areas and pressures have emerged on the demand side leading to an import of labor from abroad. About 200,000 Jordanians are estimated to be working abroad, compared to total domestic employment of about 400,000. The Government has been trying to raise female participation rates, which are low, by opening up employment opportunities for women and by expanding child care facilities. It has also given increased emphasis to education, particularly to vocational training, and has provided a broad range of social services to attract Jordanian labor. There is a growing propensity, in both private and public sectors, to increase the capital intensity of projects in order to economize on labor. Medium-term Prospects 10. The primary objectives of the current Five-Year Plan (1976-80) are to diversify the productive structure of the economy, increase overall growth, and improve tax and export revenues in order to reduce dependence on external assistance and achieve self-reliance in the long run. This involves exploit- ing phosphates and potash resources for export; extending irrigation in the Jordan Valley to increase agricultural production, particularly of high-value fruits and vegetables for export where Jordan enjoys a comparative advantage in the region; promoting production of export-oriented consumer goods indus- tries; and strengthening infrastructure in the transport and services sector to serve regional development needs and earn additional foreign exchange. During the first three years of the Plan the investment targets were attained. The overall implementation ratio at the end of 1978 was about 95 percent of the original targets in real terms. Social issues are being given increasing attention by the Government, which is currently formulating a program of action to assist low income groups and rural areas.  -4 - 11. The medium-term prospects for growth are good, with a likely GDP growth rate of 6-8 percent per year in real terms. Overall investment is likely to stay at a high level but may decline as a proportion of GDP from the exceptionally high rates experienced in 1976-1978 (about 40 percent of GDP). Jordan's development and export prospects strongly depend on the implementation of several major projects (phosphate rock mining, potash, phosphatic fertilizer, oil refining and the Maqarin Dam) and the vitality of the private sector. Phosphate production may rise to 5 million tons per year in the next few years. If the proposed projects are implemented on time and if the marketing is carefully arranged, exports of potash and phos- phatic fertilizer should also yield substantial foreign exchange earnings in the early eighties. In industry, priorities have been well established and the Government encourages industrial development. In view of Jordan's stock of entrepreneurial skills and the market for medium-scale industrial products in neighboring countries, the private sector should continue to show healthy growth. Further improvements in packaging and marketing, however, are needed for export promotion and improved productivity will be needed to offset the rise in labor cost. In agriculture, the focus of the Government is correctly on developing irrigated agriculture. But increased attention will need to be paid to rainfed agriculture where there is a need to strengthen the weak institutional and coordinating machinery, reduce fragmentation of land- holdings and to improve research and extension services. Development Issues 12. To achieve gradually the Government's objective of self-sufficiency, domestic resource mobilization will need to be increased. The Government can restrain current expenditure growth to some extent particularly by reduc- ing fuel subsidies which have risen considerably with the rise in oil prices. But given the need to compete with high wages and salaries offered to trained personnel in neighboring countries, greater possibilities lie in increased revenues rather than in controlling expenditures. Tax collection efforts need to be further increased, and consideration should be given to reducing the high tax holidays and exemptions of business and individuals. There is also some scope for increasing taxes on real estate and on non-essential imported consumer goods. Domestic demand management and financial controls need to be improved, both to restrain inflationary pressures and to improve domestic resource mobilization. Efforts are currently being made to issue a variety of debt instruments to cover financing gaps in the Government sector and to develop a secondary market for these issues. Similarly, the Government is encouraging public and private corporations to issue bonds so as to raise capital directly from the public. 13. Labor migration to neighboring countries is expected to continue and is likely to cause shortages of labor in Jordan, particularly skilled labor. The Government has correctly decided to focus on expanding the supply of labor rather than attempt to restrict its outflow; a 30 percent outflow of skilled labor is assumed in the education and training plans. The low partic- ipation rates, particularly among women, and the underemployed labor in the rainfed areas represent potential for increased labor supplies. In order to retain scarce skilled labor in Jordan, the Government is also providing low  5- cost housing, and various subsidies to reduce the price of imported food staples and has recently raised civil service salaries. However, most of the subsidies are provided with insufficient selectivity in terms of recipients, and the Gov2rnment is reviewing this policy. 14. Because of their size, Jordan's prospective investments in several major projects (phosphate mining, phosphatic fertilizer, potash and Maqarin Dam) require especially careful resource planning. These investments (exclud- ing the Maqarin Dam, for which works will not start before 1981) are expected to amount to about one-third of total investment during the remainder of the current Plan period. Although these projects will tax Jordan's physical, human, and financial resources, they are net foreign exchange generating projects exploiting Jordan's rather meager natural resources. So far, Jordan has been successful both in phasing investment so as not to burden its foreign exchange resources unduly, and in obtaining substantial amounts of external assistance on relatively concessional terms for the first three above-mentioned projects; financing of the large investments related to the Maqarin Dam and associated irrigation and water supply development is currently under discus- sion. External Assistance 15. External public debt outstanding and disbursed as of December 1978 was $825 million ($1,594 million including undisbursed). Of this total, loans from bilateral sources amounted to $533 million ($1,052 million including undisbursed) and accounted for 65 percent. Outstanding debt to IDA and the IBRD was $54.0 million ($120.7 million including undisbursed). Since the bulk of Jordan's foreign debt has been secured on concessional terms, the debt service burden remains low. Debt service payments amounted to $53.9 million in 1978, equivalent to 6.6 percent of total exports of goods and non-factor services. 16. Assuming an improvement in domestic resource mobilization (para. 12), Jordan would still need substantial external capital inflows to finance its development efforts apart from the large external budget support devoted chiefly to military expenditures. Judging from past trends in commitments by donor countries, Jordan is expected to mobilize loan commitments from the USA, Federal Republic of Germany, and UK totalling $75-$90 million annually at relatively concessionary terms (2-3 percent interest rate, 20-40 years maturity, with 4-10 years grace) in addition to substantial loans from Arab multilateral and bilateral sources (para. 5). Jordan can also absorb more borrowings on commercial terms, mostly in suppliers' credits. The debt service ratio is projected to reach 9-10 percent in the early eighties, and should remain manageable if the Government continues to exercise the restraint it has shown in the past.  PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS 17. Jordan has received four Bank loans totalling $79 million and fifteen IDA credits totalling $83.8 million (net of cancellations) of which nine have been fully disbursed. Project implementation is generally satis- factory. As of December 31, 1979, disbursements amounted to 66 percent of appraisal estimates and 80 percent of revised estimates. The IDA credits have mainly financed physical and social infrastructure projects, such as education, highways, water supply and sewerage, power, irrigation and tourism. With Jordan having attained a stage in its economic development where it could be considered creditworthy for Bank lending, and having reached a GNP per capita level that exceeded IDA limits, the Third Amman Water Supply and Sewerage Project, approved in March 1978, was the last project financed through an IDA credit. IFC has made four investments in Jordan with total commitments of $31.8 million, consisting of a $244,000 equity participation and a $1.6 million loan to Jordan Ceramic Industries Limited (JCI) in 1974, a $3.1 million equity participation in the promotion of a phosphatic fertilizer project in 1975 including a subsequent $20 million loan and $3.6 million additional equity participation in June, 1978 (see para 19), a $667,000 equity participation and a $2.5 million loan to a brick company in December 1978 and $600,700 equity participation in the Jordan Security Corporation in June 1979. Annex II contains a summary statement of Bank loans, IDA credits and IFC investments as of May 31, 1980, and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 18. Unlike past Bank Group assistance to Jordan which was largely for infrastructure projects, recent and proposed lending is also directed toward large export oriented projects with foreign exchange earning potential for which the Bank Group has closely cooperated with the Government in project preparation and in mobilizing large external financial assistance. In addi- tion, the Bank Group has been assisting the Government in implementing its social objectives, as enunciated in the Five-Year Plan (1976-80). These objectives are likely to receive even greater emphasis in the next Five-Year Plan under preparation, which will aim at improving the income and living standards of the rural and urban poor. 19. In line with these overall objectives, the Bank Group provided technical assistance for developing and implementing a plan for expanding phosphate rock production, and preparing a comprehensive program for a second phase of development of the agricultural potential of the Jordan Valley and for water supply based on the Maqarin Dam. An Engineering Credit was made in FY1975 to help prepare the project for potash production from the Dead Sea via solar evaporation, for which a loan was approved by the Executive Directors on September 5, 1978. In addition, IFC has assisted the Government in preparing a phosphatic fertilizer project to produce diammonium phosphate (DAP) and triple superphosphate (TSP) for which an IFC loan of $20 million and equity participation of $3.6 million were approved by the Executive Directors on June 27, 1978, in addition to IFC's equity participation of $3.1 million in 1975 (see para 17). Support for the Government's social objectives was provided  by the third loan for education that was approved in December 1979, the Cities and Villages Development Bank (CVDB) project approved in March, 1980 and this project. Projects are under preparation in the education, water supply, industries and power sectors. In the agriculture sector, we propose to assist in the development of irrigated production in the Jordan Valley and are preparing a rainfed agriculture project to help small farmers increase their yields through improved inputs of seeds and fertilizer as well as through better cultivation practices. 20. The Bank was Executing Agent for a two-year UNDP Planning Assistance Project based in the National Planning Council which was completed in December 1975. It was also Executing Agent for a UNDP-financed study of the manufactur- ing industry and industrial estates in Jordan. The first phase, consisting of a study of the industrial sector, was completed in December 1975. The second phase, consisting of studies of specific industries and proposals for the establishment of industrial estates during the next Plan period was completed in December 1976. The establishment of industrial zones and supporting ser- vices for light manufacturing would aim at regulating the concentration of economic activity in the Amman-Zarqa area, which has strained the infrastruc- ture facilities and caused severe pollution. The Bank has also assisted the Government in initiating studies for the promotion of export oriented industries, in establishing an entity to plan and coordinate the use of scarce water resources, and in developing a program for exploiting Jordan's extensive shale oil resources and in manpower planning. 21. At the end of 1979, the Bank Group's share in Jordan's external public debt was estimated at 7.9 percent, and its share in debt service was 1.0 percent. By 1985 the Bank Group's shares in debt outstanding and in debt service are expected to be about 4.0 percent and 5.5 percent respectively. PART III - THE URBAN SECTOR Background 22. Jordan is a highly urbanized country, with about two-thirds of its population living in urban areas and concentrated in a few relatively large cities. In 1979, about 1.3 million of the total population of 2.2 million resided in the Amman urban region. Within the region, the city of Amman accounted for 650,000 and Zerqa for about 215,000. Apart from the city of Irbid with a population of 115,000, no other town has a population in excess of 50,000. Population growth has been high, exacerbated by migration, resulting from previous Middle East conflicts. Average annual population growth in the Amman urban region since 1961 is estimated at 6 percent per annum. Sector Institutions 23. The Municipality of Amman is responsible for providing municipal services to the City of Amman with financing provided directly from municipal  -8- taxes supplemented by grants from the Central Government. The Municipality enjoys considerable autonomy and the Mayor reports directly to the Prime Minister's office. Water supply and sewerage services are provided by the Amman Water and Sewerage Authority (AWSA), recipient of an IDA credit in 1978. About 75 percent of the households in Amman city are connected to the water supply system and 28 percent to the sewerage system, whose efficient operation is hampered by a shortage of water. Solid waste management in Amman city is relatively satisfactory except in the poorer areas where accumulated garbage represents a health hazard. Electricity is distributed by Jordan Electric Power Company which supplies about 98 percent of the population. The principal services under the city's control--town planning and building control, solid wastes, roads and traffic engineering--are organized into 9 geographical and operational divisions, each under administrative control of a technical assistant. These divisions are politically under the jurisdiction of three or four council members elected to represent each division, who jointly form the City Council under the Lord Mayor. The Lord Mayor and the Under-Secretary, the most senior non-elected official, are advised by Technical Advisors, a Planning Officer and a City Engineer who are supported by Administrative Officers. The municipality's organizational and managerial structure are ill-defined, with resulting uneven standards of service throughout the city and generally low-quality administration. The Finance Manager operates at the level of an Administrative Officer and has inadequate authority and status to play a meaningful part in the management of the Municipality. As a result insufficient attention was given in the past to budgeting, financial control accounting and auditing. In 1978, the Council engaged expatriate management consultants to advise on ways to improve the organization and management of the Municipality and the consultants' recommendations are currently under review by the Council and Municipal officials. During project implementation, the Municipality will inform the Bank of the outcome of its review and the steps to be taken to improve its management and organization, including the strengthening of financial management and procedures. 24. The Housing Bank (HB). It was established in 1974 to help mobilize public savings to finance construction of housing for all income groups, but with emphasis on the low- to middle-income group. Current ownership is 54 percent private and 46 percent public with about 50 percent in foreign owner- ship. In 1978, the Housing Bank had a paid-up capital of JD 12 million ($40.8 million), total assets of JD 87 million ($295 million), loan commitments of JD 61 million ($207 million) and deposits of JD 62 million ($210 million). The Housing Bank has JD 8.6 million ($29 million) in loans from the Central Bank provided at 4 percent interest per annum. Interest rate paid on deposits ranges between 5.5-6.0 percent. The Housing Bank charges an interest rate of 7.5 percent for loans to cooperatives and farmers, 8.5 percent for individual borrowers and 10 percent for loans to commercial enterprises resulting in a weighted average of about 9 percent which provides the Housing Bank with a spread of between 3-3.5 percent. Presently, the Housing Bank provides loans for a maximum of 15 years even though its charter permits loans of up to 20 years. Default on loan repayments is negligible and was less than 0.03 percent in 1978. In 1978 the Housing Bank had a net profit of 11 percent on networth and paid a 9 percent dividend. 25. The National Housing Corporation (NHC). It was established in 1965 and its main objectives are to: (i) construct housing for civil servants and  -9- middle and low income groups; (ii) recommend housing policy to Government; and (iii) lend for housing construction by cooperatives and individuals. Between 1965-72, NHC constructed about 9,000 housing units. A target of 7,700 units was set for NHC under the Five-Year Plan (1976-80) and three-quarters attain- ment is expected. NHC's current program of constructing about 1,500 units a year is based largely on construction of walk-up apartment blocks using industrialized building systems. At present, NHC has 7 projects at various stages of completion comprising 1,473 units, with 1,296 units or 88 percent located in the Amman Governorate and the rest distributed in three out of the four remaining governorates. In addition, detailed design is nearly complete for a new town being developed by NHC at the outskirts of Amman city. The town would contain 6,100 units, the cheapest of which would be affordable by households with monthly income of about JD 100 ($339), equivalent to about the 30th percentile on the urban income distribution curve. NHC projects are heavily subsidized. It obtains funds at 4.5 percent from the Central Bank and lends to its clients at the same rate so that NHC operating expenses, mainly salaries, are met by Government grants. Furthermore, Government land is provided free, and land costs are recovered from beneficiaries of NHC projects only if it has been purchased by NHC. Also, beneficiaries are not charged property taxes until they have completed loan repayments. Urban Conditions and Policies 26. About one-quarter of the population of the Amman urban region live in areas of uncontrolled housing and squatter settlements, characterized by insecurity of tenure, overcrowding, poor housing conditions and limited access to infrastructure community services. Occupancy in these areas is estimated at 4 persons per room and rents average 25-35 percent of household incomes. Density is high, estimated at 1,000 persons per hectare. Other problems include high urban land prices, restrictive planning and building regulations requiring minimum legal plot size of 300 m2, even though at least 25 percent of Amman's residential buildings are illegally constructed on smaller plots. As a consequence of their irregular status, about one-half of these residents are denied access to public services including water and sewerage. For these areas, a pre-requisite to improvements in living conditions would be achieved through legalization of tenure and change in the building and planning regulations. The Government is reviewing its building regulations and has recently passed a bill to lower the minimum plot size to 150 m2. 27. According to the 1976-80 Five Year Plan, the total housing stock required to satisfy demand is estimated to be 380,000 units by the end of 1980. However, only 336,000 units are expected to be available, implying a shortage of 44,000 units. It has been estimated that about 10,000 new housing units would be required each year to satisfy housing demand in the Amman urban region, resulting from new household formation and in-migration during the 1980s. The existing public sector housing program has proved inadequate to cope with the growth in demand and its principal beneficiaries have been middle-income groups, provided with subsidized housing under the NHC programs. NHC is expected to supply about 1,500 units per annum and the private sector, with financial assistance from the Housing Bank, would provide an additional 3,500 units per annum mostly to middle -and upper-income residents. Hence, the currently planned programs of the NHC and the Housing Bank would still  - 10 - leave a shortage of some 25,000 units during the project period (1981-85). Without the formulation of new urban policies, these remaining units would be provided by expansion of uncontrolled areas and extension and densification of squatter settlements. 28. Despite rapid economic growth and declining unemployment in Jordan since 1975, serious problems of low productivity and underemployment among unskilled workers exist in squatter areas. Many squatter area residents work in small establishments or in irregular jobs in the informal sector. The median household monthly income for squatter settlements in Amman city was estimated in 1979 at $245, which was only about one-half of the national median urban income of $450. One-sixth of urban households have incomes below the Bank-defined absolute urban poverty threshhold estimated at $235 per month. New Responses to Urban Needs 29. During the 1970's, the Government attempted to improve the housing situation and the institutional set-up for urban planning and administration. The funding for NHC was increased and the level of its operations expanded. In 1974, the Government established the Housing Bank to help channel more savings into housing construction. In 1976, the Government established with USAID assistance, the Amman Urban Region Planning Group (AURPG) to formulate an overall development plan for the Amman region. AURPG submitted its final report to the Government at the end of 1979. In addition, a series of seminars to discuss planning issues, including housing, were held in various localities under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister to provide a local input into Government policies. 30. The Government aims to promote growth outside the Amman urban region through the preparation of regional development plans to help eliminate regional disparities in income and economic growth, and by providing tax holidays and other investment incentives for businesses locating outside the Amman urban region. Furthermore, the implementation of the large-scale development projects such as the potash and phosphatic fertilizer project would further this objective, even though their location outside the Amman region was determined not by policy, but by economic and technical considera- tions. In addition the Government is strengthening the Cities and Villages Development Bank to foster the development of small municipalities and villages, and to help increase productivity and the attractiveness of life in smaller towns, and to help slowdown migration from smaller towns to the larger towns and Amman. Steps are also being taken to improve infrastructure services in large urban areas. In Amman, a study of garbage collection and disposal has recently been completed and is being reviewed by Government. Steps are underway to augment the water supply to the Amman urban region from Azraq and studies to supply the long-term water needs of the Amman urban region from the Yarmouk River are nearing completion. The transportation needs of the Amman urban region are also being studied by consultants and their interim report is expected in mid-1980.  - 11 - 31. The Government's determination to respond to Jordan's shortage of housing and urban services, especially for the urban poor, has resulted in the adoption of new approaches for providing shelter services. In 1979, the Government commissioned a study to develop low cost replicable and financially viable solutions to meeting Jordan's shelter needs. The consultants' report recommended lowering of the minimum plot size, changing the planning and building regulations and land tenure arrangements and broadening the access to credit for housing. The study's findings were adopted following extensive debate by a steering committee consisting of representatives of all the public agencies concerned with urban development. The adoption of the study's findings by the Government and their embodiment in the proposed project represents significant progress toward the development of an overall strategy for meeting Jordan's pressing urban needs. Through practical demonstration of the viability of low cost sites and services and upgrading schemes, the proposed project will help demonstrate the feasibility of the Government's new approach. PART IV - THE PROJECT 32. The proposed project is a first concrete demonstration of the Government's determination to provide low-cost shelter and related infrastruc- ture and services in the Amman urban region and improve the living conditions in the squatter settlements without resorting to extensive subsidies and with maximum community participation. The Government first approached the Bank in 1977 with the project idea. Subsequently, Bank staff assisted the Government in preparing the terms of reference for a consultant study which was completed in October 1979, and assisted the Government in reviewing and supervising the consultants' work. The National Planning Council (NPC) prepared the project, with the assistance of consultants. The project was appraised in September 1979, with a follow-up appraisal in April 1980. Negotiations were held in the City of Amman between June 11-14, 1980. The Jordanian Delegation was headed by Dr. Hanna Odeh, President of the National Planning Council. The Housing Bank was represented by Mr. Z. Khoury, General Manager, the Industrial Development Bank by Mr. Al Hmoud, Head of the Small-Scale Industry Program, and the Municipality was represented by Dr. Hisham Zagha, Director designate of the Urban Development Department. A staff appraisal report entitled "The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan - Jordan Urban Development Project - Staff Appraisal Report" dated June 23, 1980 is being distributed separately. Supplementary project data are provided in Annex III. Project Objectives and Description 33. The project covers seven sites in the Amman region. The primary objective of the project is to provide shelter and related infrastructure and community facilities to lower income groups at affordable prices with a minimum of subsidies to ensure replicability. This project is seen by the Government as the beginning of a longer term program to provide for shelter and employment needs of the poorer urban dweller. Through the implementation of the proposed studies and the upgrading component, the project would assist the Government's efforts to revise the restrictive planning and building regulations and land tenure policies, making them more conducive to home  - 12 - ownership by squatter residents and providing them with greater access to basic infrastructure services. The sites and services component will introduce a new dimension to public sector housing in Jordan. The project would also provide technical assistance to the public agencies responsible for the development of low cost housing and infrastructure services to strengthen their institutional and organizational capabilities. The project would provide vocational and commercial training to the urban poor and would enhance their employment opportunities by providing loans to viable small-scale and handicraft enterprises in the project area. Finally, the project aims at increasing the low female participation in the labor force by providing specialized and locally sited training facilities. The project includes the following main elements: (a) Development of 1,606 residential plots at North Ruseifa, 1,208 plots at Marka and 2,049 plots at Quweismeh, covering a total of 90 hectares for 41,000 mostly low income residents of Amman region. A total of 4,135 uniform plots of 100 m2 size would be provided for low income beneficiaries and 679 plots of 150 m2 and 49 plots of 300 m2 would be offered for sale at market prices. All plots would have individual water supply and sewerage connections. Electricity would be provided to every plot and street lighting would be provided to all vehicular roads, culs-de-sac and footpaths. Solid waste would be collected from refuse bins to be located within 40 m of every plot. One boys' and one girls' school combining primary and prepara- tory grades and one basic health center would be constructed on each site. (b) Upgrading of four low-income settlements in the city of Amman at Jofeh, Wadi Haddadah/Nuzha, East Wahdat, and Wadi Um er Rimam, covering 21 hectare with a total of 15,000 people. The areas selected represent the worst housing conditions in Amman, with 50 percent of the families below the absolute poverty level. The improvements proposed are designed to meet the expressed priorities of the inhabitants. Security of tenure would be provided, with transfer of freehold title to existing residents. Roads and footpaths would be surfaced, solid waste collection and sewer systems installed, water supply distribution network rationalized including house connections, electricity distribution connection and street and footpath security lighting provided. Building material loans would also be provided for home improvements. (c) Small business assistance and manpower training through provision of shops and workshop plots, loans and technical assistance and training. About 257 workshop sites and 170 retail shop sites will be developed in the new development areas and in East Wahdat. Of these, about 52 workshops and 150 retail shops would have completed core units and the remainder would be financed by loans from the Housing Bank and other sources. Credit would be extended to small businessmen for expansion or setting up new businesses. A vocational center to offer pre-employment training and apprenticeship would be built in Quweismeh and female training facilities would be set up in demonstration houses on each new development site and in the up- grading sites to train women in skills such as dressmaking, child care, handicrafts, and component assembly.  * 13 - (d) Expatriate consultant services consisting of about 21 man-months to assist in project design and supervision, 110 man-months to assist in project implementation, 33 man-months to advise Government on social planning and statistics and to develop comprehensive housing policy, 8 man-months to review planning and building regula- tions, 40 man-months for study of suitable new areas for urban development and 26 man-months for training municipal staff; and 350 man-months of local consultants for design and swi-vrvision. (e) Equipment for municipal maintenance services. Project Implementation 34. The Municipality of Amman, will have overall responsibility for project implementation, with the assistance of consultants. The Municipality has agreed to continue to employ consultants whose qualifications and terms of employment shall be satisfactory to the Bank (Section 2.02 of the Project Agreement). The Urban Development Department (UDD), within the Municipality, would be responsible for physical implementation of all project components and for coordination of the design, operation and maintenance of project facilities with other agencies. UDD would implement the upgrading component and, with the assistance of the National Housing Corporation (NHC), carry out the implementation of the sites and services components. The Amman Water and Sewerage Authority (AWSA) would be responsible for supplying water and operat- ing and maintaining the sewerage services at all the upgrading sites and at the new sites in Quweismeh and Marka. The Water Supply Corporation (WSC) would provide similar services for Ruseifa, but operation and maintenance would be the responsibility of the Municipality of Ruseifa. The Municipality will make arrangements for AWSA and WSC not to charge their normal connection fees since they will be recovered from the beneficiaries through plot charges (Section 3.03 of the Project Agreement). The Municipality of Amman would provide municipal services and maintenance to all project sites except Ruseifa, which would be serviced by the Municipality of Ruseifa. The Jordan Electric Power Company (JEPCO) would supply electricity to all sites. To facilitate the maintenance of project facilities by the specialized agencies, AWSA, WSC, and JEPCO would appoint, as a condition of loan effectiveness, liaison staff to review design and assist in the implementation of relevant project facili- ties under their respective jurisdictions (Sections 3.01(b) and 6.01(b) of the Loan Agreement). The Housing Bank will act as bursar for the entire project with the exception of funds earmarked for loans to small scale business which will be handled by the Industrial Development Bank under its Small Scale Industry and Handicraft Program (SSIHP). The Government would arrange with the Vocational Training Corporation (VTC) to operate the vocational training center at Quweismeh and the other centers in the project (Section 3.02 of the Loan Agreement). School and health centers would be staffed and maintained by the Ministries of Education and Health, respectively, while community centers will be maintained by the Ministry of Social Development. An extension service would be set up within UDD to provide technical assistance to small business, promote vocational training and the small business loans program, liaise with relevant agencies involved with project implementation and monitor progress in meeting project objectives. Tender documents for the first site would be ready by December, 1980 and physical works are expected to commence around July, 1981. The project would be completed around June, 1985. 35. Land for the Ruseifa site and for part of the Marka site is Government-owned, but land for the Quweismeh site, part of the Marka site  - 14 - and all the upgrading is privately owned and will have to be acquired. The Municipality has agreed on a schedule for acquiring the remaining project sites (Section 2.08 of the Project Agreement). The schedule has been designed to enable comoletion of the land acquisition process for each site, approxi- mately thirty to ninety days prior to the start of construction. The Municipality will commence negotiations with existing owners upon signature of the Bank loan. If the negotiations are not successfully completed four months prior to the date specified for acquisition, the Municipality will initiate expropriation proceedings to ensure timely acquisition of each site. Implementing Agencies 36. (a) Urban Development Department (UDD). UDD is a new department created by the Municipality of Amman to implement the project and similar schemes. Dr. Hisham Zagha, a qualified and suitable person, who as an official of the NPC has been involved with this project throughout its preparation, has been designated Director of UDD. Dr. Zagha would transfer to the Municipality on July 1, 1980. UDD's director would be directly responsible to the Mayor. In addition to the Director, a core staff consisting of a senior engineer, an architect/planner, a community development officer and an accountant would be needed to commence project design and implementation. This core staff will be supplemented by two engineers seconded from the NHC, an accountant and a quantity surveyor seconded from the Housing Bank and the liaison staff from AWSA, WSC and JEPCO. The appointment of the Director of UDD and core staff by the Municipality, as well as the appointment of the seconded staff by the Housing Bank and NHC, except for the quantity surveyor who is not needed until later in the project cycle, and the appointment of liaison staff by AWSA, WSC, and JEPCO, would be a condition of loan effectiveness (Section 6.01(b) of the Loan Agreement). The quantity surveyor should be seconded by June 30, 1981 (Section 2.09(b) of the Project Agreement). For project implementation, UDD would require 29 local professionals, assistants and secretaries, supported by 28 trainees and assisted by 7 expatriate consultants. UDD should be fully staffed by December 31, 1981. UDD would be organized along functional lines with four sections: Technical Services, Community Development, Financial Control, and Estate Management. The Technical Services Section will be responsible for engineering design, and supervision and liaison with service agencies and technical ministries. The Community Development Section would monitor the community development program and, with the Housing Bank, under- take the beneficiary selection. It will also contain the Economic Development Extension Service unit to provide technical assistance to small business and monitor overall project implementation. The Financial Control Section would establish accounting procedures, monitor and evaluate financial performance. The Estate Management section would handle the acquisition and disposal of property and ensure proper maintenance of project sites. Agreement was reached on UDD's organizational structure during negotiations (Section 2.01(a) of the Project Agreement). (b) Industrial Development Bank (IDB). IDB was established in 1965 to finance private industry, tourism, and mining projects in Jordan. A recipient of an IDA Credit in 1976, IDB has developed into one of the most successful and vigorous development institutions in Jordan. In 1975, IDB established its Small Scale Industry and Handicraft Program to help business establishments employing five people or less, and utilizing simple machinery or hand tools. The maximum amount that can be loaned under the program is  - 15 - JD 4,000 ($13,500), or up to 80 percent of the cost of the machinery for each unit. IDB charges an interest of 8 percent plus a fee of JD 15 ($50) per annum, thereby increasing the effective interest rate to about 9 percent. Maximum loan maturity is 5 years, including a six-month grace period. Since its inception, IDB has approved loans amounting to JD 0.8 million ($2.8 million) under the program with an average loan of about JD 1,200 ($4,000). (c) Vocational Training Corporation (VTC). Since its establishment in 1977, VTC has concentrated on providing in-plant training courses ranging from short skills-upgrading courses to three-year apprenticeship courses. VTC skills upgrading courses have benefitted 360 workers to date, and 600 trainees are currently enrolled in the apprenticeship program. The demand for VTC courses exceeds the number that can be accommodated, even with all existing facilities operating at full capacity on up to three daily shifts. A VTC vocational training center is planned near Ruseifa to be partly financed by USAID. This center and the proposed training center at Quweismeh to be financed under this project, will help satisfy part of the demand and relieve pressure on existing VTC facilities. Project Cost and Financing Plan 37. The total cost including contingencies is estimated at JD 17.0 mil- lion ($57.6 million) of which JD 4.7 million ($16.0 million) would be in foreign exchange. Physical contingencies are estimated at $2.8 million and price contingencies at $ 8.4 million. Physical contingencies are estimated at 10 percent of infrastructure base costs for sites and services and 15 percent for upgrading. For both domestically and internationally procured equipment and works, price increases of 10.5 percent in 1980, 9 percent in 1981, 8 percent in 1982 and 7 percent per annum thereafter have been assumed. Unit costs average about JD 1,870 ($6,300) per household in the sites and services areas and JD 1,400 ($4,750) per household in the upgrading areas, including the cost of community facilities and off-site infrastructure. In all, about 238 man-months of expatriate consultancy services and 350 man-months of local consultancy services would be financed under the project at an estimated cost per man-month of $12,300 for expatriate consultants and $4,300 for local consultants. The costs for consulting services are comparable with those for similar projects. 38. The project financing plan is complete. The Government would provide JD 3.5 million ($11.9 million), the World Bank would provide JD 6.2 million ($21 million) and the Housing Bank would provide JD 7.3 million ($24.7 million) which would be madp available to the Municipality on terms and conditions satisfactory to the Bank (Section 2.01(b)(iii) of the Project Agreement). The proposed Bank loan of $21 million would finance about 38 percent of total project cost (net of taxes), covering 100 percent of the foreign exchange cost and about $5 million equivalent, or 12 percent, of the local costs. Local cost financing is proposed to enable the Bank to make a reasonably significant contribution to this first Bank-financed urban project in Jordan aimed at improving living conditions and productivity of bene- ficiaries who are among the poorest in Jordan and supporting policy changes and institutional reform that have great social implications. The Bank loan would be provided to the Government at 8.25 percent for 17 years including 4 years of grace. The Government would on-lend $13.9 million of the Bank loan  - 16 - proceeds to the Housing Bank at 8.25 percent per annum for 20 years, including 4 years of grace, and would onlend $0.85 million to the Industrial Develop- ment Bank at 6.5 percent for 10 years including .3 years of grace. The Government would make the remaining $6.25 million available tc the Housing Bank, for the financing of project facilities such as schools, vocational training facilities and community facilities whose costs are non-recoverable from project beneficiaries. The Government will bear the foreign exchange risk. The terms and conditions for on-lending the Bank loan proceeds were confirmed during negotiations. The proposed interest rates and maturities would be incorporated in separate subsidiary loan agreements with the Housing Bank and IDB (Section 3.01(c) of the Loan Agreement). Ratification of the Subsidiary Loan Agreements is a condition of loan effectiveness (Sections 6.01(a) and 6.02(b) of the Loan Agreement). Cost Recovery 39. Costs recovered from beneficiaries through plot charges include cost of land, site preparation, on-site infrastructure, on-plot development, design and supervision and project management. Land, site preparation and infrastruc- ture cost relating to schools, community centers, vocational training facili- ties and areas reserved for mosques would not be recovered. Plot charges in new development areas would be differentiated to reflect plot accessibility, road frontage and commercial potential while charges for plots in upgrading sites would depend solely on size. The large residential plots of 150 m2 or more will be sold for cash at market prices. For the other plots, a 5 percent minimum downpayment would be required, with the balance to be repaid over 20 years at an interest rate of at least 8.5 percent per annum, which includes a life insurance premium of about 1 percent. Building material loans would also be available on similar terms. For commercial plots, shops and workshops, a 20 percent downpayment would be required with the balance payable over 10 years at 10 percent interest per annum. The Housing Bank would submit to the Bank by December 31, 1981 model sale contracts to be entered into by the project beneficiaries (Section 2.10 of the Project Agreement). Loans to small businesses and handicrafts under IDB's Small-Scale Industry and Handicraft Program would be made at 8 percent for 5 years plus a management fee of JD 15 per annum. Profits from the sale of the large residential and commercial plots would be used to offset part of the costs of plots earmarked for the lowest income beneficiaries. Agreement has been reached on the terms of cost recovery (Section 2.01(b)(i) of the Project Agreement). 40. About 77 percent of the cost of the upgrading schemes and 68 percent of the cost of the site and services will be recovered directly through plot charges at interest rates of 8.5 percent to 10 percent per annum, and the sale of the commercial, industrial and the larger residential plots. Land, site preparation and infrastructure costs relating to schools and other public facilities will be charged to the budgets of institutions responsible for providing such facilities. Price differentiation and cross subsidies would enable the cheapest plot option, including building materials loan repayment to be affordable to 90 percent of the Amman urban population, assuming that 25 percent of family income is devoted to housing and utility payments. Beneficiary selection procedures encompassing strict application of the income criteria for the sites and services areas and proof of residency in the upgrading areas prior to project implementation, would ensure maximum  - 17 - participation by low income families. During negotiations, agreement was reached on the selection criteria to be adopted (Section 2.01(b)(i) of the Project Agreement). About 45 percent of the sites and services beneficiaries and about 55 percent of the upgrading beneficiaries would be below the absolute poverty level estimated at $235 per household per month in 1979 prices. 41. The proposed 8.5 percent interest rate for long-term housing loans is identical to the interest rate charged by the Housing Bank to individual borrowers but is considerably higher than the 4.5 percent presently being charged by the Housing Corporation. It is slightly positive in real terms when compared to projected inflation rates. The inflation rate in Jordan was 7 percent in 1978 and 12 percent in 1979. It is projected at 10 percent in 1980 and 8 percent in 1981 and 1982. The Government recognizes the current disparity of interest rates in the housing sector and has agreed to complete within two years (mid-1982) of loan signature, a study of the housing strategy including interest rates, and to seek the Bank's views and comments on the findings and recommendation of the study (Section 4.03 of the Loan Agreement). Account and Audit 42. The executing agencies would maintain separate accounts on their operations directly relating to the project and UDD would submit quarterly progress and financial reports to the Bank no later than six weeks after the end of each quarter (Section 2.05(b) of the Project Agreement). The Housing Bank and IDB would submit financial statements audited by independent auditors acceptable to the Bank, not later than six months after their respective fiscal years. The auditor's opinion would also cover reimbursement claims by the Housing Bank and IDB against statements of expenditures (Section 4.02 of the Project Agreement). Procurement and Disbursement 43. Civil works for the sites and services component totalling JD 7.9 million ($26.8 million) would be procured through international competitive bidding in accordance with Bank guidelines. Municipal services equipment, furniture, and equipment for the community facilities worth JD 0.9 million ($3.1 million) would also be procured through international competitive bidding in accordance with Bank Guidelines. For bid evaluation purposes, a 15 percent margin of preference or an amount equivalent to customs duties, whichever is lower, would be applied to the equipment components of domestic bids offering locally manufactured goods. Contracts for civil works for upgrading areas totalling JD 1.4 million ($4.8 million) would be individ- ually small and dispersed and would therefore be procured on the basis of locally advertised competitive bidding in accordance with procedures satis- factory to the Bank. Consultancy services amounting to JD 1.3 million ($4.4 million) would be procured individually by the agencies responsible for implementing the various components on terms and conditions acceptable to the Bank. 44. The proposed loan would be disbursed on the following basis: (a) 38 percent of total expenditures for civil work contracts;  - 18 - (b) 50 percent of loans to beneficiaries for building materials and to small-scale businesses for shops and workshops construction, raw materials and equipment; (c) 100 percent of foreign expenditures for imported furniture and equipment; or 100 percent of the ex-factory cost of locally manufactured furniture and equipment for municipal and community facilities; and (d) 100 percent of expenditures for consultants' services. The Bank would reimburse 50 percent of the approved loans made by IDB each quarter under the small business assistance component. Disbursements against building material loans will be made on the basis of statements of expendi- tures certified by the Project Director. All supporting documentation for building material loans will be retained by the Housing Bank and will be available for inspection by the Bank during the course of project supervision. About $0.7 million would be disbursed in FY81, $4.4 million in FY82, $7.5 million in FY83, $5.8 million in FY84 and $2.6 million in FY85. The Closing Date would be December 31, 1985. Project Justification 45. The project represents a significant step in the development of a new urban strategy in Jordan which addresses the shelter, service and employment-related needs of the urban poor. Through its emphasis on afford- ability and cost recovery and the introduction of appropriate design standards, this project would have important demonstration effects and would provide the basis for a long term program. The consultancy service would have the bene- ficial effect of strengthening local, organizational, and institutional capability in the sector. The economic rate of return for the sites and services and upgrading components, amounting to about 72 percent of the project costs, is estimated at 20 percent, based on the net increases in imputed rental values attributable to the project. A 10 percent decrease in cost would increase the rate of return to 24 percent while a 10 percent increase in benefits would increase the rate of return to 23 percent. A 10 percent increase in cost or decrease in benefits will reduce the rate of return to 18 percent and 16 percent respectively. Calculation of the rate of return for the other components is not feasible because of the difficulty in quantifying their related benefits. 46. Project benefits will accrue to about 56,000 people in the seven sites of the project areas. A total 1,025 jobs will be created at an average incremental cost per job of $3,050, in 1980 prices. About 400 people will be trained annually under the project's vocational training program. About two-thirds of the trainees would be women, which would serve to increase the participation of women in the labor force, leading to higher household incomes for the project beneficiaries, who are at the low end of the income distribu- tion curve.  - 19 - Project Risk 47. There are two main risks associated with the proposed project. First, the project's emphasis on cost recovery, including a higher interest rate charge for this project compared with rates charged for public sector housing loans in the past, is both politically and socially sensitive and will require continuing strong Government support for the project during implementa- tion. Continuing Government support is expected considering the concurrence with the project objectives at the highest levels in Government and the com- mitment of the Municipality and the other executing agencies to its successful execution. Also, surveys show that beneficiaries are prepared to pay the project costs in exchange for security of tenure and improved level of basic infrastructure services. Secondly, project implementation may be hampered by institutional weakness due to shortage of trained staff. This risk is minimized by including in the project, considerable technical assistance to the project implementation agencies and the Government. The other possible area of potential risk relates to delay in acquiring land for the project sites and delay in the provision of the infrastructure services by the technical agencies and municipalities. In both these areas satisfactory safeguards have been included in the project (paras 34 and 35). PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 48. The draft Loan Agreement between the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and the Bank, the draft Project Agreement among the Bank, Municipality of Amman, Housing Bank and the Industrial Development Bank and the draft Report of the Committee provided for in Article III, Section 4(iii) of the Articles of Agreement of the Bank are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. Special conditions of the project are listed in Section III of Annex III. As indicated in the text and in Section III of Annex III of this report, the additional conditions of effectiveness are: (i) the Housing Bank and IDB subsidiary loan agreements have been ratified (Sections 6.01(a) and 6.02(b) of the Loan Agreement); and (ii) the Project Director, the core project unit staff, the seconded staff, and the liaison staff (para 34) have been appointed (Section 6.01(b) of the Loan Agreement). 49. I am satisfied that the proposed loan would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Bank. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 50. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed loan. Robert S. McNamara President Attachments June 25, 1980 Washington, D.C.  -20 - ANNEX I Page I of 5 JORDAN - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET JORDAN REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVUAqS LAND AREA (THOUSAND SQ. KM.) - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) TOTAL 97.7 MIDDLE INCOME AGRICULTURAL 14.7 MOST RECENT NORTH AFRICA & MIDDLE INCOME 1960 lb 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b MIDDLE EAST LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN GNP PER CAPITA (USS) .. .. 1050.0 698.2 1384.1 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 197.0 306.0 535.0 545.0 1055.9 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, KID-TEAR (MILLIONS) 1.7 2.3 3.0 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 42.7 49.6 54.9 45.7 ' 63.4 POFULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN TEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 5.0 STATIONARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) 12.0 TEAR STATIONARY POPULATION IS REACHED 2090 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. EM. 17.0 24.0 31.0 40.7 28.1 PER SQ. KM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 133.0 165.0 204.0 598.6 81.7 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 44.0 45.8 46.6 44.0 41.4 15-64 YRS. 52.0 51.1 50.7 52.5 54.7 65 MRS. AND ABOVE 4.0 3.1 2.7 3.5 3.9 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) iTOTAL 3.2 3.0 3.3 2.6 2.7 URBAN 5. O0c 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.1 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 48.0 49.0 46.0 41.6 34.8 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 20.0 16.0 13.0 13.7 8.9 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.4 3.5 3.4 2.9 2.5 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) .. USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. .. 16.2 FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 220.0 81.0 94.0 93.5 106.9 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) .92.1 67.0 62.0 103.6 107.4 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) '57.4 40.0 41.0 69.8 65.6 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 13.8 11.0 11.0 17.5 33.7 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 30.0 22.0 16.0 17.5 8.4 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 47.0 52.0 56.0 54.4 63.1 INFANT MaRTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) .. 86.0 .. .. 66.5 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. 56.0 62.5 65.9 URBAN .. .. 60.0 82.9 80.4 RURAL .. . .. 50.0 45.1 44.0 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. .. .. 62.3 URBAN .. .. .. .. 79.4 RURAL .. .. .. .. 29.6 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 5900.0 2680.0 1940.0 4688.7 1849.2 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 1650.0 1050.0 953.0 1751.5 1227.5 POPULATION PER BOSPITAL BED TOTAL 557.0 960.0 833.0 635.5 480.3 URBAN .. 740.0 RURAL .. 5750.0 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. 36.5 39.6 HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL 5.3 6.1 URBAN 5.5 .. RURAL 5.1 .. AVERAGE NHMSBE OF PERSONS PER ROOn TOTAL .. .. WEAN .. .. RURAL .. .. ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PURCE?? OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL 17.0 .. UUAN 39.2 RURAL 1.0 ..  ANNEX I - 21 - Page 2 of 5 JORDAN - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET JORDAN REFERENCE GItOUPS (WEIGHTED AVERAC% - IDST RECENT ESTIMATE) MIDDLE INCOME MOST RECENT NORTH AFRICA & MIDDLE INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b MIDDLE EAST LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLlMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 77.0 73.0/d 83.01d 76.4 99.7 MALE 94.0 80.0/d 87.0/d 92.2 101.0 FEMALE 59.0 66.0/d 79.0/d 59.9 99.4 SECONDARY: TOTAL 25.0 33.0/d 53.0/d 33.3 34.4 MALE 36.0 41.04d 60.01d 41.9 33.5 FEHALE 13.0 24.01d 46.0/d 24.2 34.7 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (Z OF SECONDARY) 3.0 3.01d 4.01d 9.8 38.2 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY 34.0 39.01d 36.01d 39.2 30.5 SECONDARY 21.0 23.01d 21.01d 25.1 14.5 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 32.0 .- 70.0 39.7 76.3 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 4.0 9.21d 27.31d 15.3 43.0 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 38.0 162.01d 191.01d 139.0 245.3 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. 20.014 45.01d 29.0 84.2 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER ThOUSAND POPULATION 18.0 24.01d 18.01d 22.2 63.3 CINEbA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA 3.0 0.9/d .. 2.8 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 432.0 569.0 715.3 FEMALE (PERCENT) 5.3 5.5 6.0 9.6 22.2 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 43.9 33.8 27.0 47.0 37.1 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 26.3 32.8 39.0 23.8 23.5 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 25.5 24.8 24.2 26.1 31.5 MALE 46.7 45.6 44.4 47.4 48.9 FEhALE 2.7 2.9 3.0 4.7 14.0 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 2.3 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.4 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY IGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS NIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. *- 230.0 262.5 RURAL .. .. 100.0 140.4 190.8 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 206.0 202.1 474.0 RURAL .. .. 135.0 122.2 332.5 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. 17.5 22.1 RURAL *- *- 22.5 33.1 Not available Not applicable. NOTES /a The group averages for each indicator are population-weighted arithmetic means. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. Lb Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Moat Recent Estimate, between 1974 and 1978. /c 1952-61; Id East Bank only. April, 1980  - 22 - ANNEX I Page 3 of 5 DEFINITIONS OF SOCIAL INDICATORS Notes: Although the data are drawn froc toneata generlly judged the end authoritative and reliable, it fhorld aleo be rated ehet they ray ret be ieter- tutionally casyarable becaase et the lark at attedardleed definttiats atd aonaepts used by differeet aenetreta ie ralleatieg the date. The date ree, one- theless. utetal ta desreibe orders ef agritade, iedi-ate trerde, aed characterize netrait maiJr diffleree bhet=eenaea. Ln.i The reterenae ger pe net (1) the aine aonatry graap of the t-bjeca cauntry ed (2) e cenetry group vith mauebhat higher average itrnce th.a tbe caurtry genap af the subject country (exceey fee Capital SDeplun Oil Exporters' Stoop cheer "tiddle Ieoaae Nareh Africa nd hiddle Eamt" is ahosen hecaaae at ttanager nori-cultural affinitia) I. the reftre-ce grasp data the aeragesea pepalactee weighted arithmetic rears far earh indioator avd nhnvr only when at least halt at the canetetie inagenap hat date Inr tbnt indicator Diner the aseerage at cnunetrem among the tndiaators depends an the availability fe data and s net aettars, caution mttus e exercteed Sn relaring averages of tee indi-atn- to anther. These averaget err only useful in aomparing the value of ace -idiator at a tie aong the aountry end referetel groeps. LAND AREA (thoasand sqikn.) lorulatiac rer Phynlnan - Ponl-aItta auciaea bS ousber or practiaung pay- Tonal - Totul surtace tree a-mp,ititg land area and inland vaters. silc-a qutliafid -oa aIedical achao at -ni-eomity level. Asrin-ltural - EatiCate of agri-alturarea ened tempanarily or percanently Populatiot per barging Peeson - PFpulation diaided ho nhber of pra-tiaing fnr areps, pnt-ures, carket end kitahen gaedens or te lie fIllnv; 1977 data, male ad female graduate turret, prantloaD nurses, sad assistaec GNP PER CAPITA (US$) - GNP per capita eact-atee at arrenet market prices, eel- ruratn and natal) dIvIded bytheir urben t ruah -r Ygaptian (ttbes aulaced by sane aaeveeeone meehed anIs'World gunk Atlas (1976-78 bhais); 1960, available in public and private genertl end ape_iallned hoapital and Te 1970, and 1978 data. h.bilitatite aentera. ftHapitaln ere eeteblinhments permanently staffed ENtERGY CDONDSUMPTION PER CAPITDA - inasal anneanpnlan et areralal energy (real by at leant tee phyytaian. latablibhmenen yh nv-idirg prieipally eastediel ENEGYONUhfIONPeCAIIA-nnul pti of energy(coal asre see net intluded. Raral banpiali, heweve. includs he lth and tedital and lignite, peterle=, natural gas and hydro-, -nleme snd geothermal eDen- certees net permanently dd staed by a phyit oian (but by a ra.dioeD saletase. trinity) in --logrF at anal equiealene per apita; 1960, 1970, and 1979 nurse, midwife, tr.) which offer ie-patient aat-datiee nd proide I data, limited range of edital facilitien Far stati-ti-al psep.ee I erbhe bhapi- POP LATION AND VITAL STATISTICS taiF itcluda aWO. Preilpeepitae end edital and maternitY aentet. Total Pepulaticn, Kid-Year (nillions) - An of July 1; 1960, 1970, med 197S -d-1sainns pee Hfepital Bed - pitel rasher at admieniena te or disuharges data,ls f- h-npitels divided by the rsber of bade. Urban topulatien (peecent et etotal) - Ratin of urban to creel populatioe differeet defititnsn at frban areas nay affeft neeparability of data hOUSING e rolnontrieel; 1969, 1971, and 1978 data. Average tize of Iteneld (eenant pee heunebold - trtal, urban and renal- Populstion Poen) -ciot0 A htusehold can at a greup no indleidualt eke there living quarters Population Sn year 2DOO - Currant papelatiro projections are hnsed en 1980 and their male meals. A brander or ladger cay on may not h included in total prlation hy age anad see and theSr ertnality and eertility rates the houeehold for etatintical purposes. Prajeation para-eters fee mortality rates eepeina ot chree level,aseu- Average runhee mf Pemains er room - total, urban and reel - Average rai- ing life enpeatancy It birth increasieg vibh country's per -aspita trnme her at peetone yer reot 11 all urhan, and eural occupiedaenoneionml level, and femaln life expectancy stabilizing at 77.5 years. The .ars- dwellingn, respectively. Dwell gs xcaladanon-Ormneemsttrcraeeand meters ftr fertility rate ean- have three levels aeses-dg decline in un-ocpied parts fertility aecording en irCOne lscal esd peat ft-ily planning perf.retmee. Anc.es te Rletetriity (Pneree af deellinga) - cetul, urban, and rural - Raeh tOnetry in ther aseigoed aneof thlse eni combimatirnn of martality Cnnventienal drellinge vith electricity in living quarters es and tertility creeds tee peojenelm parpoesef ot tetal, uIban, and raret dielllnI reepeetlaelc Steactonart eoPulatlen - Iretest lernary pepalselrn thmere is nO gmanch elate the birth rate is equal Sn the demeb rate, and alse the age ntruoturehre- EDUCAT1tO mains constant Thin ia achieved taly after tertility rates decliee to Ad1usted EnrolLeent laden the replaneme.t leuel of unit net reproduetian rete, eheneae generatier primary nahool - itol, male and tamale - lanes total, mOale and DenDe ofesenereplanes Itself erectly. The ntatioeaey population site ea. enrollment at al egen at the primary level as peraseteges at respeclive aetisated an the bai af tha pr tjected ohareaterietias of eta population pretery mrbeel-agt prpalattees; 1rermlly inclades ahildre= aged 6-1l in the year 7000, sod the rate at decline at fertility eate to reylace- years hut adiusted for different legthn ef periery edunatio.; for neat level. countriesnvttharivtesal education enenllmect a ayexceed 10O PnerSen veetationary pop=latio= is eraehed - The year when stationary population elet s.es pupiln tee halts or abeve the efticial scheol age. tire hbe bkee rea.hed. Seeodarv school - total. male end taale - Cemnpted as aboet neneodaty Pasulatlee Dencnity edreatden requires an least tent yearn et appreved primary _nstirniieh; Par as. ha. - id-ymar pepulatien per square kilemerer (100 hentarma) ef provides general, vocational, or teacher training Snaterrtirea fin pUPiF total area. osfally ft 12 to 17 years of aCge; iatrrespondsue coaas are generally Per us he ageicultural land - Cteputed as eblet for agricultural land secluded only. ..aatinly f1 trrel7lyne (pace at mecdpry ... .e.t.ma instttutt...rel Population Age Structure (teescet) - Children (0-14 years), arking-age (11- incLude teahninal industrial re eherrga whiab opersteldpn- hi years), end retired (S6 yearn and amer) am perentages of sid-year ptpu- dently oe as departments ot secondary inmtltutlnns lanler; 1960, 1970, and 1978 data. dpal-tleaer raind - gritmary. -nd seco=dary - TVtal students aeroled in Pteulation Grovth hate (percent) - Itetl - Acasel growth retea of treaD mid- prim ry med nenendaty levels divided by numbers ot teachers in the year pepalations for "IOD-60, 1960-70, aed 1970-7B correapnedeg 1eve1. levaletle _ Growth tate (percent) - urban - Annual grm.th rates of urban petu- Aduit litedaci nate (percent) - Ltterateadult- (able to read and aelee) latien, for 1950-60, 1960-70, med 1970-78. ampereetage of tetal adult population aged 15 yearn erd over. Crude Birth Itue (Per thousand) - Annua1 live births per thousand of rid-year popuaition; 1960, 1910, end 1978 date. CoNsMPTION Crude Death Rate (refSr ehuamd) - Anneal deaths per th-usard tof id-year Passenger Cars (per thousand rpoplation) - Pasnenger cars nampeime miner pepulttion; 1960, 190, and 1978 data, ontssting le than eight permons; excludee ambulances, heeruen end Geese lete tdutia Rata - Average numbee af daughteena ema will beer in military vehicles bee earma rapredu-tive peeild if ateag periears present age-speeii intee- Radio Receeiv frs ee thoeuegd htrulac-ar) - Alt types of relasters tea radi Cility rates; usually five-yeer averages ending in 1960, 1970, and 1977. beoadasts en general public pee thosand of papelatios; eNludes unli- Family Planning =. Aceypt,p Anesal (thousands) - Annual esinhar of eeepteen cemeedeenere in counres n=d Sr yeers vhen regiYtestir- af radfo seet of birth-contrel dealrem andar easpieer of metittal family ple asig progras was in etfent dta fog recent yeers may see be cmeparable since mast F btly Planni=g - leers (iereet ot married Ame l) - Peree=ttge ef earried cpu .tries abaliat-d licensing. anen, of ohild-beerieg age (15-4i yearn) ahb are birth-a=t-rl devices to TV bteie.ven (per lir..a.d ipa,lntirn) - Tf receivers far hemadoe,t Sr all carried .e..e is meet age groupe general publi per ebersand pepslueatn; secludes aellbensed TV receivers FOOD ND N~~~~~~~~ITRITION ~~~~~innea-tri- and in Yearn when egieteat ien of It st e in effet. rdex at Pcd terdncrien per Cepite (1969-71101) - Inden of per capita annual tSaref. dai lyi g (Per tnnerese defined as ah perie e pub- pradunetan of all fend cnmedtotir. trodactio=excainden serd end teed a=d licetion devoted yimalily en reordding general mama. It is rnaSdsered it en nalardar year basis. CoRanditiem never primary goods (e. S sugerre et be "daily" if it appears an least fear timet-nark. instead of sugar) vhiah rar edible and conta=l -anri-nse (e.g coftee and Cinema Annual Aten=da=ce sea Capita ret Tear-Based en the nuber of tea are exladed). Aggregate productio= of e.ch country is based = tikets said duri=g the year, onoludSeg adm-isnins to drive-tn cinema, n --inal average producer price .eighte; 1961-65, 1970, mcd 1978 data. an shld datitts Far capita eupely of cainriem (pereent at estuiraenets) - Ceinputed teenr eu energy eqnvile-tt rt feed upplie available in coutry per sapita LABOR FORCE pee day. Available supplies conprise domestic productio=, Imports lens Teta1 Laker Foreo (thousands) - farnocicelly entice peet .n, including exparts, and changes Sm stnek t s=pplies exclade animal fend, needs, armed Error and cerplayed but excludi=g rtenewivis, etudente. eta quactities sed in food prnorsuing, and lasses in diuteibatlen Require- Defiritio=t ft various couetirn see eno nampurable; 1960, 1970 end cents eres estimated by FAO bhned en physiological eeedi far se seD anSi- 1971 d90a. clay end health -nsidering e-eirene=tal te-per-ture, body aeights, age l feceat -Fr lbor faren as perenrtege of -tm1 labhr force endsear dineribution ot popurs-ton, end rllestne 10 1eeat toe winne at Agriculture (ararcet) - Labor force in Faming, ferestry lancing and bruanbald level; 1961-65, 1970, ard 1977 data. fithing a percentage of eareD labor torte; 1960, 1970 end 1979 date Per caPita nuppic ef protein (grams per day) - Protein nontent of pee capita Induogry (asece-t) - Labor torce in mining, construction, manutactr9 na art supply af fond per day. Net supply af food is defined am bave ne- a=daienetricity, eater and gas an percentage of total labor force 1960, qulee=snin for all ountries eemtblinhed by USDA pr-vide far miniu 1970 and 1978 dt. allawane of S0 greet at tetal proteir pea day and 20 graes of aei=al end FParinipation hate (cement) - total, rein and tesale - Participation or pulls protes, of vhich 10 genes should be animal protin. Tb nu stand- activity rates are rro=uted as notal, mule, and temule lebot farce as ard_ ace lver than three of 75 Sran of tota1 protein san 23 areas of perentrages at etoa, male end female populatiat of all aget renpecnicely; ac Fe1 Fratein us an average for the acrld, proposed by FAO in the Thief 1960, 1970, end 1975 data. These are ILO's participtio= reaten reflecting aid Pond Survey; 1961-6, 1971 and 1977 data. s of h p Pee capita crotain surply fro= maci_l and rulse t- .r-etn mupply of tend de- mag treed. A ffc -ets- riced from eeleale end pulses iS grass per day; 1961-65, 1970 and 1977 data. Ecanuit -efendre=c Rtr - hatie of population sdn e 15 Child (anet 1-u) Mortalitv nase (per titunerd) - Annu tl deaths per thent iantd i en tI the c l lab=r fored. age grouP 1-4 ye_r, cc children in this age group; far sort developing cove- criel data derived fran life tables; 1960, 1970 end 1977 dana. INCOME DISTRIBUTION tercensage at Private IDCO= (Intl in cash and kind) - te-eceid by rinhent LIfe Eapatterny atLBirth (yss -tAeregenambef of ytsr of life -elon I percent, rinhent 20 percent, poorest 00 percent, and p--rcsn 40 pe.ect at birch; 1960, 1970 snd 1978 date. of e o h. Inftnt tortality Rate (par thoueand) - An=ual deaths of infants under ore year POvERTy TARGET GROUPS of age per tousaend live birste. Intimated Absolute Poverty Incore Level (01) prerv caite) - urban and cret 1- Attest to stte Wlairer (percent of population) - reeal, urban, and rural - Absolute poverty fraome level is that ircume level below vhich a esnimal Nuhber of people (total, urban, and rural) vth reasonabie access en safe nutritto=ally adequate diet plan esnentiel nec-trod renqnle=emss is net cater supply (inlude. traited usrfane reot. or untreated bht unn-rtmei-ntnd tff.rdelef watr sunk us thac frn protentsd bIreblet, epritng, and sea itary welie) an Estieted Reiative Poverty Incom Level (uSS par eunice) - urban and easel - percentagee af their respec-i-e papulatiorn In en urban areattubie Ral reletive poverty Secant level is nc-third of average pet capita fountain or rtasdpset Located ort mtem than 200 eet.rS fram a hause cay be Feaeroal Simote of the i-u=try. l-hu leetl is derived ferne tbe rsal -nuide-ed an being nithic reneonable scee of tehat house. It rurl trees level nith adjusteatn tee bsebr taut of livi=g in arben areas. rea...a..blea acces uid imply chat the heases.fe cc f esbean of the .esnehold Zssiested Porulatioc seine Absolute Poverty eonine Level Ipercent) -ehrba do not have to speed a dinproyernlorste part of the day in fetntSeg the and rural - Featent of potulatiet (urban and rural) wIt are 'abtolute poor"' familyr c ater neteis. incesste anfcroca Disposal (crent of ronuintioc- tdtli. tehn. aId rural - Sunber of people (toeal, urban, and ersr1) served by nanrette dispoanl as pe-centages of their respective populations Elnresa din- Ectonoic and Social Data Dirisirn FasIl say includr the nallenctee end dispesal, tith ur cithaut creatuent. Earomi A=inlynin and Prn-j-tio.s Depert-ect nf lumen ecc-ent and sante-eater by eater-lame nysees or the ant of April, 1980 pit privies and similar isvsallatlns.  23 - ANNEX T P-a;* 4 c-f 5 ECONOMIC INDICATORS GROSS NATIONAL PROWCT IN 1978 ANNUAL RATE OF GROW1H (,. constant prices) USS Mn. % - 1961 -66 19