Burundi - Second Technical Assistance Project

Documentof IF oCE C The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-2532-BU REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECOTRS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF BURUNDI FOR A SECOND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT May 8, 1979 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Calendar 1978 Unit = Burundi Franc (FBu) US$1 = FBu 90 FBu 100 = US$1.11 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY BURUNDI SECOND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: Republic of Burundi Amount: US$2.5 million equivalent Terms: Standard Project (i) Purpose: To assist in the further strengthening of Description: the government's planning mechanism and its project preparation and implementation capacity. (ii) Components: The project will comprise: (a) continua- tion of the technical assistance to the Ministry of Planning presently provided under the First Technical Assistance project; (b) reorganization and strengthening of the planning and project preparation units of the Ministries of Agriculture and Industry; (c) specific industrial expertise in project preparation, implemen- tation and management; (d) feasibility and preinvestment studies in selected fields; (e) selective training on the job, and training in foreign educational institu- tions; and (f) provision of equipment and vehicles to enable foreign experts to carry out their tasks. The project will provide about 16 man-years of long term advisory service and about 140 man-months of short and medium term consultancies for specific studies and project preparation. (iii) Benefits: The project will allow the Government to formulate more effective development programs, and to improve identification, preparation and implementation of agricultural and industrial projects, thereby facilitating the implementation of the third Five Year Development Plan (1978-1982). (iv) Risks: Difficulties and delays may be expected in the recruitment of qualified experts and the assignment of national counterpart personnel. To minimize such delays, the Association will closely supervise the project and assist in the recruitment of advisers and consulting firms. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be discbsed without World Bank authorization.  - ii - Estimated Cost: Foreign Local Foreign Total Exchange U1$ million equivalent X Long-term advisory services 300 1,310 1,610 81 Short-term advisory services 170 940 1,110 84 Training - 150 150 100 Equipment and vehicles 10 50 60 83 Unallocated 20 50 70 71 Total (including a negligable 500 2,500 3,000 83 amount of taxes) Financing Plan: The Credit will finance the foreign exchange cost of the project amounting to US$2.5 million; the balance of US$0.5 million will be met by the Borrower. Estimated Disbursements: IDA Fiscal Year ---------------US$ Million -------------- 1979 1980 1981 1982 Annual 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.5 Cumulative 0.1 0.9 2.0 2.5 Appraisal Report: There is no appraisal report on this project.  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF BURUNDI FOR A SECOND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed Development Credit to the Republic of Burundi for the equivalent of US$2.5 million on standard IDA terms to help finance a Second Technical Assistance Project. PART I - THE ECONOMY 2. The last economic memorandum on Burundi (1838-BU) was distributed to the Executive Directors on April 25, 1978. Updated country data are pro- vided in Annex I. 3. With an average GNP per capita of about US$130, Burundi is one of the poorest countries in the world and is designated as "least developed" by the United Nations. Of a population of about four million, only 121,000 are wage earners; the remainder depends mainly on subsistence agriculture. The Government is facing several critical problems in its efforts to develop the economy: the capability to prepare and manage programs and projects is weak; the agricultural labor force is largely untrained; and population growth keeps straining Burundi's productive resources, particularly in agriculture. Despite the recent adoption of a policy of "spaced births", the problem of population pressure cannot be solved in the immediate future; therefore, a major effort must be made to increase agricultural productivity. Agri- cultural yields have been declining, because more and more marginal land has been brought under cultivation. The search for more arable land has caused large-scale deforestation, resulting in a severe lack of firewood in the rural areas and forcing the development of alternative energy sources. 4. Improvements to the internal transport system will be of limited effect unless reliable external links can be established. Shipments of imports and exports through the principal outlet via Tanzania have tradi- tionally encountered frequent delays and losses because of theft. However, some action is being taken to improve the situation. For example, several donors (Canada, Belgium and the European Development Fund) are considering financing the rehabilitation of railway and port infrastructure in Tanzania. The link via Rwanda and Uganda to the former East African Railways and the port of Mombasa (Kenya) is becoming increasingly attractive with the con- tinuing improvement in national highways between Bujumbura and Mombasa. Recent hostilities in Uganda have illustrated the vulnerability of Burundi's external transport lines, as imports of heavy bulk goods (gasoline, construc- tion materials, etc.) and equipment came to a standstill, affecting prices, production, trade and development work.  - 2 - 5. Recent Economic Developments. Over the period 1970-77, Burundi's GDP grew at a rate of only 2.2 percent per annum in real terms, (about the same as population), and per capita income stagnated. Growth was concentrated mainly in the capital city, particularly in manufacturing and construction activity. Food crop production grew significantly slower than did population, averaging an increase of 1.3 percent annually, while the production of export crops, including coffee, fluctuated around a declining trend. 6. The overall investment rates of the economy rose considerably in 1977, when it accounted for 11.0 percent of GDP, but it is still below the average for low-income countries. The allocation of investment between production and infrastructure, one-third and two-thirds, respectively, has not changed noticeably in recent years. The bulk of investment in the rural areas has been to a large extent financed by official external aid and has been allocated mostly to export crops. In 1977, the public sector accounted for about 90 percent of gross fixed capital formation. This has been accom- plished largely by government investment in social and transport infrastructure and by the activities of public corporations. Investment by private enter- prises has been relatively weak, reflecting in part the excess capacity prevailing in certain industries and the limited financial and managerial capabilities of most private firms. 7. Burundi's coffee production has become increasingly important for its foreign exchange earnings: the share of coffee in total exports rose from 79 percent in 1965 to 88 percent in 1977-78. Owing mainly to the sharp increases in the world coffee price and large coffee crop in 1976-77, average prices for Burundi's exports more than doubled in 1976 and again in 1977. For the first time since 1970, the current account balance registered a surplus, amounting to US$16.9 million in 1977. By the end of 1977, Burundi had accumu- lated about US$86 million in net foreign reserves, equivalent to 11 months of imports. The improvement in the terms of trade resulted in income gains equivalent to an increase of about one-fourth of GDP over 1975. Including these gains, gross national savings, which averaged only 5.4 percent of GDP in 1970-75 and were below the level for most developing countries, increased to 11 percent and 16 percent of GDP in 1976 and 1977 respectively. The increases in income have accrued primarily to the Government through higher export taxes; the rest was shared by the small coffee producers. Producer prices were increased two-and-a-half-fold from 1975 to 1977, but the export tax on coffee more than quadrupled in 1976 and was raised by another 300 percent in June 1977. This resulted in an increase in tax revenues from coffee exports from a level of BuF 154 million (4.4 percent of total current revenue in 1975) to an unprecedented BuF 1,250 million in 1976 and BuF 3,500 million (43 percent of current revenue) in 1977. 8. The increase in Government revenues allowed substantial increases in current and investment expenditures. During 1976-77, ordinary budgetary expenditures shot up by about 58 percent to BuF 5.1 billion, owing to signif- icant increases in the basic salary scale, the effects of a 14 percent devalu- ation which took place in May 1976, and the establishment of new ministries. The salary increases were the first since the mid-sixties, although in real terms, the average salary has increased very little if any since that period.  -3- Revenues allocated to ministries which provide economic and social services, which had declined in real terms up to 1975, were increased by 57 percent in 1976-77. Nevertheless, budgeted amounts for agriculture in 1977 were still low and constituted only 3.8 percent of the ordinary budget. Although in 1976 only half of the investment budget was spent, investment expenditures were three times higher than in 1975. In 1977, Government investment doubled to about BuF 2 billion. In spite of the substantial increases in expenditures, overall budgetary transactions, which showed a small deficit in 1975, registered a surplus of BuF 170 million and BuF 890 million in 1976 and 1977 respectively, due to the higher growth of tax revenues. 9. Although Burundi still holds a comfortable net international reserve position (US$69 million at the end of 1978, equivalent to over eight months of imports), the situation is less favorable than it was 18 months ago. During 1978 Burundi lost US$17 million of its reserves, and this despite a large increase in net disbursements of external loans. According to preliminary information, several factors were responsible for this deterioration. Despite a one-third increase in exports of coffee, total merchandise exports dropped by one fourth to US$67 million, mainly as a result of a 50 percent decline in the average unit price of this commodity. Although part of this decline was attributable to unfavorable sales in the forward market, most of it was due to deteriorating world market conditions. Additionally, in the wake of rapidly increasing public investment, strong consumer demand, a 12 percent increase in import prices and rising insurance and freight costs, Burundi's merchandise imports shot up by one-third to US$98 million. Faced with a significant decline in revenues from coffee exports, as well as rapidly rising expendi- tures, after two years of surpluses, the Government was forced to borrow close to BuF 1,196 million from the banking system (2 percent of GDP) to finance its overall deficit. 10. Government Development Strategy. Since 1977 the Government has designed a new strategy to achieve social justice, ethnic reconciliation and improved living conditions in the rural areas. The poll tax, which was levied on all males, was replaced by compulsory deposits which can be withdrawn after three years. In addition, small farmers no longer have to provide services to landowners in exchange for land, as they have acquired exclusive rights to the land they cultivate. Likewise, land which was obtained in an irregular manner for speculative purposes has been returned to the state or to the farmers who cultivated it. Other aspects of the new policies, which are embodied in the Third Five-Year Plan (1978-82), are: (a) to emphasize agricultural production to face the increasing needs in food supplies of the fast-growing population; (b) to increase the rate of economic growth substantially in order to provide greater employment opportunities and more income to the poorest segments of the population; (c) to raise the investment rate significantly; (d) to give the Government a more active role in mobilizing financial and manpower resources an in parti- cipating in mixed enterprises in the commercial and productive sectors; and (e) to foster decentralization of economic and social activity away from the capital city and achieve a more balanced geographic distribution through the  -4- creation of development poles, voluntary settlement of the peasant population in villages, and migration from densely populated areas. To facilitate the implementation of its strategy, the Government has strengthened the role of planning by elevating the planning organization to the rank of ministry and by giving it a key role in the allocation and monitoring of public investment. I1. External Assistance and Prospects. Economic prospects are less favorable than during 1976-77 as a result of rapid declines in coffee prices. The major issues which the Government currently faces are how to limit the loss in reserves, preserve its revenue base, and contain inflationary pres- sures. This will require cautious budgetary policies and a significant reduction of the Government's investment targets for the remainder of the Third Five-Year Plan. In addition, the producer price for coffee will have to be reduced in real terms, as the world market price for this commodity is expected to average in real terms, during 1979-82, only 38 percent of the 1977 level. The government is currently revising its policies in all these areas as well as considering the use of IMF facilities. 12. If the government continues to focus on development and strengthens its administration, it may achieve a steady, albeit slow, improvement in per capita income. If mining of Burundi's nickel deposits proves feasible, the prospects over the next ten years would be much better. However, the commer- cial viability of exploiting these deposits has yet to be established. Regional development in Central Africa will also be important to Burundi's economy. On September 20, 1976, Burundi, Rwanda and Zaire signed a conven- tion establishing the "Economic Community of the Countries of Great Lakes". The Community, which has its seat in Gisenyi, Rwanda, aims inter alia at stimulating and intensifying intra-regional trade and cooperation in a wide range of activities. A major objective of the Community is the electrifica- tion of the Great Lakes region. The three countries have also agreed to set up a joint development bank, exploit methane deposits around Lake Kivu, and develop a fishing industry around Lake Tanganyika. They also instructed the Secretariat to investigate ways of improving the transport system around the lakes in order to ease the enclavement of Burundi and Rwanda. 13. Disbursements of official loans and capital grants averaged US$21 million per annum during 1976-77, most of it coming from Belgium, IDA, the UN agencies and the European Development Fund. In the 1973-77 period, total net foreign capita]L inflows amounted to about US$95 million, of which US$66 million was in the form of grants. On December 31, 1978, Burundi's external medium and long-term debt amounted to about US$55.6 million (excluding undisbursed amounts), of which IDA held 26 percent. Debt service averaged 3.7 percent of export earnings during 1976-77, with IDA receiving 18 percent of all debt service payments. Due to the large grant element in external assistance, the Bank Group will probably continue to hold an important proportion of Burundi's debt. Notwithstanding the low debt service ratio, Burundi is unable to absorb any borrowing on commercial terms, because of its poverty and the instability of its export earnings. External aid should therefore be on grant or very concessional terms and continue to include a substantial share of local cost financing.  -5- PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS 14. Since IDA lending started in Burundi in 1966, ten credits have been made totalling US$48.4 million. One credit (US$1.1 million) helped improve water supply to Bujumbura; three credits (US$13.0 million) were for agriculture (coffee production and fishing); three credits (US$19.4 million, including an engineering credit of about US$400,000) helped start a highway maintenance and improvement program; a US$10.0 million credit is supporting the improvement of primary education; a US$1.5 million credit was made for a technical assistance project and the National Economic Development Bank received a credit of US$3.4 million. Seven of these credits (US$44.1 million) were made after 1973 since civil strife in the years before made lending difficult. The Second Coffee Project and the Fisheries project are being cofinanced by the Kuwait Fund (US$1.0 million) and the Abu Dhabi Fund (US$1.2 million). The Second Highway Project is cofinanced by the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA) in an amount of US$6.0 million. Annex II contains a summary statement of IDA credits and notes on the execution of projects and the status of disbursements as of March 31, 1979. 15. Project performance has been uneven, reflecting the lack of local management capacity and technical skills which is likely to remain a stumbling block for some time to come. This situation has particularly delayed the execution of the Fisheries and the Second Coffee projects, although recently the implementation of both projects has improved. Disbursement of the credit to the National Economic Development Bank has been lagging because of the general sluggishness of the industrial sector. On the other hand, implementa- tion of the Education project and the Second Highway project is satisfactory. Following a slow start - mainly because of recruitment difficulties - the First Technical Assistance Credit is entirely committed. Nearly all key staff envisaged to be hired under the project are in post and several studies have been completed (see paras. 23-26). 16. Future IDA operations in Burundi will continue to focus on improving agricultural productivity, transportation and education. Documents regarding a proposed forestry project, which is designed to help Burundi rebuild its depleted wood resources, will be circulated to the Executive Directors shortly. Preparation of an agricultural development project which would aim at improving the living standards of the rural population in one of the poorest areas of the country, is being completed and the project is expected to be appraised early next year. Further improvements of the road sector will be envisaged under a third highway project to facilitate the distribution of foodstuffs between surplus and deficit areas and reduce regional price differ- ences. A second education project is being appraised to improve and expand technical education and an urban project is being prepared to help improve the living conditions of the urban poor in Bujumbura. We also intend to provide further assistance to the industrial sector by supporting the activities of the National Economic Development Bank. Lending will continue to include assistance for project management and technical expertise.  - 6 - PART III - THE NEED FOR TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE 17. During a Round Table Conference held in 1978 by the Government of Burundi and foreign aid agencies active in Burundi, the Government stated that it faced two basic problems in absorbing foreign aid: (i) a lack of suitable projects prepared by the Government and (ii) a limited number of competent local counterpart-personnel to help execute projects and to take over project management once the investment period had been completed. Because of the long period it requires to establish a sufficiently large national base of managers, administrators,at independence in 1960 only a few secondary and university students had graduated. and skilled workers, qualified staff is still scarce and includes at present about 700 high-level staff, most of whom are employed in the Government to carry out administrative tasks. Middle level personnel is also scarce which in turn limits the efficiency of high level staff. 18. As a result, Burundi needs substantial technical assistance and to meet this requirement external financing for this purpose has risen steadily in the past years. In 1977, funds committed for technical assistance (see table below) reached nearly US$30.0 million (about 40 percent of total external aid) of which about US$20.0 million was provided under bilateral programs, US$6.0 million by the UN and US$4.0 million by other multilateral agencies. About US$19.0 million of the technical assistance funds were committed for education and agriculture. Teachers constitute the largest single group of technical assistants. In agriculture, most technical assis- tants are engaged in research or project implementation. The largest provider of bilateral technical assistance is Belgium, followed by France and the Federal Republic of Germany. The European Development Fund provides mainly project related assistance, while assistance of UN institutions is spread over a variety of different activities.  Commitments for Technical Assistance in 1977 (US$ thousands) Other Inter- Sector UN System national Others /1 Total Organizations Education 656.6 10.8 44.7 1.2 8,981.6 45.3 9,682.9 32.5 Agriculture 647.3 10.7 3,770.4 98.4 4,804.2 24.2 9,222.9 31.0 Health & related services 2,055.0 33.8 - - 3,185.6 15.0 5,237.6 17.6 Transportation & Telecommunication 583.6 9.6 - - 1,154.2 5.8 1,737.8 5.8 Natural Resources 1,124.7 18.5 - - 560.4 2.8 1,685.1 5.7 Planning 414.9 6.8 16.9 0.4 1,120.0 5.6 1,551.8 5.2 Industry 241.2 3.9 - - - - 241.2 0.8 Other /2 356.7 5.9 - - 65.0 0.3 421.7 1.4 TOTAL 6,077.0 100.0 3,832.0 100.0 19,871.0 100.0 29,780.0 100.0 Source: 1978, Annual Report on Technical Assistance, UNDP-Bujumbura. /1 Bilateral and unofficial aid. /2 Culture, Population and Science. 19. Belgium provides a substantial amount of technical assistance to the education sector. The number of Belgian teachers in all levels of education was expected to reach 200 by the end of 1978. In addition, tech- nical assistance is provided to the Bureau of Rural Education, to the Project Unit which implements the IDA financed Education project, to the Burundian institute of agricultural research (ISABU) and several Belgian financed agricultural and livestock projects. Belgium is also financing the prepara- tion of a large rural development project in the North-East of Burundi (Kirundo region). 20. France provides teachers and experts in education management and has a substantial number of medical personnel attached to various hospitals established with French financing. In agriculture, it provides technical  -8- expertise in forestry development, livestock improvement and food production. The Federal Republic of Germany has provided several experts to the government agency responsible for electricity and water distribution (REGIDESO), the Ministries of Planning and Agriculture and the Mechanical Workshop of the Ministry of Public Works. It also finances several preinvestment studies in infrastructure. 21. Technical assistance provided by the European Development Fund (EDF) is concentrated in agriculture. Several experts are assigned to the Tea Bureau to help manage EDF financed tea projects, to a large irriga- tion project in the Rusizi valley, and to a forestry project. EDF also intends to finance additional feasibility studies regarding Burundi's international transport links with Dar es Salaam. Technical assistance provided by the UN has been spread over many sectors with main emphasis on health and on mineral research, which has led to the discovery of nickel deposits. 22. The overall focus of technical assistance on agriculture and educa- tion is expected to remain unchanged. While the Government encourages foreign aid agencies to provide qualified experts to fill the gaps in local expertise, it has on occasion voiced criticism of the quality of experts, their ability to cooperate with local officials and the limited choice the Government has been given in their recruitment. Often technical assistance is limited to the execution of projects financed by the individual aid giver. While recognizing that it is not always capable of assigning suitable local staff to foreign experts, the Government complains that counterpart personnel is sometimes treated as "second-best" and given too little responsibility. It maintains that the expert and his local counterpart should form a team to avoid that the national staff - as is often the case - becomes disinterested. Training of local staff by experts hired under foreign aid programs appears to have had limited results thus far and under the proposed Second Technical Assistance project an effort will be made to improve this situation at least within the scope of this project (see paras. 42-43). The Government plans to provide greater continuity in the assignment of nationals to foreign experts, as they are too frequently transferred to more important executive functions before they have actually had the time to improve their technical knowledge suffic- iently and broaden their experience at staff level. 23. To overcome some of the difficulties described above, the First Technical Assistan,ze project was designed to provide the Government with access to additional untied aid for requirements that could not be met ade- quately by technical assistance available from existing bilateral and multi- lateral sources. It was particularly aimed at improving Burundi's economic planning mechanism. It also provided for the implementation of feasibility studies for specific agricultural and industrial projects. The project has proved useful in improving government performance in these areas, although not all of its objectives could be achieved. The new Ministry of Planning was strenghtened with a senior economist, whose contribution was instrumental in preparing the Third Five-Year Development Plan (1978-82) and the 1978 1/ See footnote page 1.  - 9 - Round Table Conference. Experts provided to the Ministry by various aid agencies in the fields of infrastructure, industry, agriculture and general economics, who previously contributed on an individual basis with limited guidance and coordination, were grouped as a team under the general super- vision of the senior economist and as a result overall performance of the Ministry has markedly improved. For the first time in Burundi, the Ministry established a macro-economic framework in preparation of the Third Five-Year Development Plan. A beginning was made with conducting project identification and sector work more systematically through interministerial working groups at various levels. 24. In addition, a senior statistician was recruited to help improve the efficiency of the Department of Statistics, which has resulted in a considerable improvement of the Department's output of statistical surveys and information on agriculture, national accounts and various sectors of the economy. A junior statistician was employed to help carry out a statistical survey in an agriculturally rich area to examine yields and potential improve- ments and contribute to other programs undertaken by the Department. Moreover, three experts were recruited to assist, respectively, in the development of Burundi's peat resources, the management of a national savings bank and the organization and management of a government agency responsible for the financing of low cost housing. Several studies were carried out under the project,including a prefeasibility study regarding a possible sugar project in the Mosso regioLu and the preparation of an agricultural development project (see para. 19). 25. The main problems experienced during the execution of the project resulted from difficulties in identifying and recruiting suitable experts and delays in the signing of their contracts. As a consequence, the hiring of two experts who were to assist in the preparation of a possible nickel project (a metallurgist and a mineral economist) was postponed and their financing will be continued during the proposed Second Technical Assistance project. A number of short term consultancies for preinvestment studies of specific agricultural and industrial projects which were envisaged under the project did not materialize because of a lack of competent staff in the planning units of the Ministries of Agriculture and Industry and also because of a general lack of entrepreneurial activity in Burundi. As a result the pipeline of feasible projects has remained very limited. Even in the area where the project was relatively satisfactory, i.e. in the improved performance of the Ministry of Planning, execution was adversely affected by the weakness of the administration. For example, technical assistants had to devote too large a portion of their time to carrying out basic administrative and manage- ment tasks which should normally be handled by local personnel As a consequence, the professional capacity of technical assistants was not always fully utilized. 26. In summary, execution of the project proved that the Government has still some distance to go before it can be expected to have the capac'ity to identify, prepare and implement feasible and justified projects and that  - 10 - it will require continued assistance for quite some time. In recognition of the above, the Government has requested further support from the Association in the provision of technical expertise to help it implement its current five-year development plan as well as is realistically possible. PART IV - THE PROJECT 27. The project was appraised in September 1978. Negotiations were held from April 16-20, 1979. The delegation of Burundi was led by H.E. Donatien Bihute, MiLnister of Planning. 28. The purpose of the project is to assist in the further strengthening of the Government's economic planning mechanism started under the first Technical Assistance project (credit 613-BU). In addition, the project will help improve the p:Lanning and project preparation and implementation capacity of the Ministries of Agriculture and Industry. It also provides funds for feasibility and preinvestment studies to help establish a pipeline of feasible and justified projects. However, the number of studies resulting from the project is not expected to be very large. This can only be improved very gradually with the strengthening of the organization and staffing of the planning and operating Ministries. The Ministry of Planning will have the prime responsibility for carrying out the project. 29. Specifically the project would comprise: (i) continuation of the technical assistance to the Ministry of Planning presently provided under the First Technical Assistance project; (ii) reorganization and strengthening of the planning units of the Ministries of Agriculture and Industry; (iii) selective training, either on-the-job or in foreign educational institutions; (iv) feasibility and preinvestment studies in selected fields; (v) short-term expertise to advise in project preparation, implementation and management of specific projects; (vi) provision of equipment and vehicles to enable foreign experts to carry out their tasks. The project would provide about 16 man-years of long term advisory services and about 140 man-months of short and medium term consultancies for specific studies and project preparation. Profiles of advisers which have already been identified are detailed in Annex IV.  - 11 - 30. Attention has been paid to the technical assistance programs fi- nanced by other agencies to avoid overlapping of the proposed project with activities underway or planned by those agencies (see paras. 18-21). Gen- erally, the project will provide the Government with additional untied and flexible resources for purposes which are not adequately met by existing bilateral and multilateral aid. In areas where the project will supplement the assistance provided by other aid agencies, efforts will be made to in- crease the efficiency of the experts through reorganizing and streamlining the respective planning and project preparation units. The proposed credit is expected to be committed by mid-1981. Detailed features 31. Ministry of Planning: The Ministry of Planning receives technical assistance from the Federal Republic of Germany (five experts, in agricul- ture, industry, infrastructure and sectoral planning) and France (one energy expert). Under the project, the position of the senior economist presently financed under the First Technical Assistance project will be continued. As principal adviser to the Director-General of Planning and Statistical Studies, the senior economist will continue to head the General Planning Division and coordinate the activities of the other foreign experts each of whom heads a sub-division in their respective fields of competence. The senior economist will be given the additional tasks of liaising with the planning units of the Ministries of Agriculture and Industry. He will supervise the activities of the advisers hired under the project and coordinate their work when necessary. In addition, the position of the senior statistician financed under the first project will be continued. Under the direction of the Director of the Depart- ment of Statistics, he will lead a team of four foreign statisticians. Two of these will be financed by the proposed credit and one of them will be specif- ically recruited to prepare and supervise agricultural statistical surveys in consultation with the planning unit of the Ministry of Agriculture. 32. Ministry of Agriculture: Presently, the planning unit of the Ministry of Agriculture is understaffed and its management is weak. It is headed by a Director-General, an agronomist by profession, assisted by five staff members, two national agriculturalists and three foreign experts (an agronomist, an agricultural economist and an expert in animal husbandry). The limited capacity of the planning unit is partially responsible for the lack of well prepared agricultural feasibility studies and the formulation of an adequately documented pipeline of possible projects. Since development of the agricultural sector is the immediate priority of the Third Development Plan, the Government attaches great importance to the strengthening of the planning unit. 33. To meet this objective, a senior agricultural economist with exten- sive experience in agricultural planning and project preparation will be recruited; his main task will be to direct the planning team, organize and guide its work program and devise an efficient system of overall project supervision and evaluation to generate feedback to be used for improved design and implementation of future projects. As head of the planning team  -12 - he will be reporting directly to the Director-General of the planning unit. Two additional agriculturalists, one of whom could be an animal husbandry expert, will be recruited to support the team. The team will also be res- ponsible for the coordination of agricultural projects financed by foreign aid. 34. In view of the expected increase in agricultural project financing, the Ministry needs to establish an efficient system of project accounts to enable it to oversee overall spending for agricultural projects, forecast the need for local currency, achieve uniformity in data information and con- trol individual project accounts more effectively. This will be necessary, in particular, for rural development programs with multiple project activities such as the agricultural development project (Kirimiro region) currently being prepared with financing under the First Technical Assistance project as well as other projects covering large agricultural areas which are being envisaged for financing by Belgium (Kirundo region) and the Saudi Fund for Development (Rumonge region). 35. Improvement of agriculturaL planning and project preparation would not be meaningful if it were not accompanied by a strengthening of extension services. Presently, extension services consist of about 800 extension agents, i.e. a ratio of one agent for about 1000 farmers. They are insuffi- ciently trained and ill-equipped to carry out their tasks adequately. The Government's objective is to improve the quality of extension and increase the number of extension agents per farmer family. As part of the implementation of the objectives of the Third Development Plan, the Government is pursuing the improvement of the extension services simultaneously with the strengthening of the planning and project preparation unit. The improvement of the extension system is of vital importance if the projected expansion of agricultural investments is to be attained. Under the project, the Government intends to carry out a study to improve the training of extension agents and the effi- ciency of the regional services of the Ministry of Agriculture. The Govern- ment's efforts to improve extension services will be closely monitored during execution of agricultural projects financed with IDA assistance. 36. Ministry of Commerce and Industry. In the industrial sector, the Third Development Plan places emphasis on the creation of new jobs, using labor intensive technologies, and on activities providing foreign exchange savings or earnings. The objective is to give priority to industries which process local raw materials (agro-industries) and supply tools and local construction materials. Thus far, the Government has not been very successful in achieving these objectives, although the possibilities for the establishment and expansion of small and medium scale enterprises were identified when the Association extended a US$3.4 million Credit to Burundi in 1977 in support of the National Economic Development Bank (Banque Nationale de Developpement Economique, BNDE). At present, only about one third of this credit has been committed. Burundi's landlocked location and its limited market are partially responsible for this situation. However, the Government has not yet agreed on a clear set of poLicies toward the industrial sector. In addition, BNDE's  lending has been hampered by inadequate project preparation and insufficient cooperation between the Ministry of Commerce and Industry and BNDE. Although the Credit to BNDE includes technical assistance to its Investment Unit for project preparation and appraisal, BNDE remains to a large extent dependent on the Ministry for project proposals. Presently, the Ministry's planning and project preparation unit is assisted by three UNIDO experts (two engineers and a small scale enterprise expert); however, it lacks sufficient technical expertise in industrial development to carry out its task satisfactorily. 37. As a first step towards improving this situation, consultants will prepare a study on the operations of the planning unit of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, its requirements to plan and prepare industrial projects in cooperation with BNDE and make recommendations regarding its organization and the need for technical expertise to be financed under the proposed Credit. This should allow the Ministry to improve the preparation of economically justified industrial projects, establish monitoring mechanisms for their implementation and evaluation and train national staff in project analysis and control techniques. The Credit will also provide funds to hire specific technical expertise on short term assignments as required by the individual projects to be prepared. However, the implementation of industrial projects will also depend on the establishment of clear government policies regarding the development of the industrial sector. This question is being reviewed with the Government in the context of the implementation of the National Economic Development Bank project (Credit 731-BU) to ensure that such policies will be developed simultaneously with the strengthening of the Ministry's project preparation capacity. 38. Nickel development: A UNDP-financed prefeasibility study concerning the possible exploitation of Burundi's nickel deposits was completed in 1978. The identified deposits, which are located in the south east of the country in an area without any infrastructure, amount to about 300 million tons of which about two thirds are reportedly of medium grade nickel content. The total cost of the nickel exploitation (including infrastructure requirements) has been estimated at close to one billion dollars at 1978 prices. The The Government of Burundi intends to carry out a feasibility study to determine the real potential of the project, since, should the project prove feasible and justified, it would mean a substantial change in the country's economic outlook. Because of the complexity of large size mining operations, the Government has requested the assistance of the Bank Group in discussions with potential investors and in the financing of key personnel to help analyze the studies and negotiate appropriate contracts for studies with interested parties. The project will finance the services of a metallurgical expert, a mineral economist and a legal adviser, who would be assigned to the Ministry of Geology and Mines, to provide the Government with objective advice in technical, financial and legal matters. 39. Additional assistance and studies: The project will continue to provide long term management assistance and training to the National Savings Bank begun under the first project. The operations of the Savings Bank have substantially increased since the Government inaugurated in 1977, a system of compulsory savings (which can be withdrawn after three years). In  - 14 - principle, all income-receiving persons need to contribute to the savings bank a minimum of 500 Burundi francs per year. The system is designed to en- courage savings among the population and requires a considerable expansion of the Bank's administrative staff and local offices. A consulting firm has been hired to provide expertise and to supervise the Bank's operations at regular intervals. In addition, the project will provide continued assistance to a newly created government agency, which will be responsible, inter alia, for the provision of credits for and credit management of low cost housing. The agency is expected to play an important role in the execution of an urban development project, which is currently being prepared with IDA assistance. 40. Several feasibility studies expected to be financed under the project have been identified, in particular for the establishment of an agricultural credit system, the marketing of industrial and agricultural products and the establishment of technical service centers in the interior (carpenting, plumbing, etc.). Other feasibility studies are expected to result from the planning and project preparation activities of the Minis- tries of Agriculture and Commerce and Industry; additional suggetions may also be made at a Round Table Conference on Agriculture expected to take place in late 1979. Training 41. Because of the high cost of foreign expertise, it is important that Burundi draws as much as possible from the technical know how to be provided under the project. Since the results of training efforts during the first project have been limited (see para 22), greater care will be taken by the Government to ensure that suitable Barundi staff be assigned to foreign experts for the duration of their services (see Section 3.03(b) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). In addition, when recruiting foreign experts, due attention will be paid to their experience with working conditions in developing countries and their ability to relate to national staff. Their training duties will be clearly defined in their terms of reference and monitored during project supervision. 42. Since existing bilateral and multilateral programs make ample provision for training, financing of scholarships under the proposed project is limited to specific needs arising in the field of statistics, planning, project preparation and analysis. Priority will be given to training in institutions located in Africa. It is also expected that Barundi staff will be given an opportunity to make continued use of EDI courses to enhance their education and experience. In addition, staff will benefit from study tours to Bank Group financed projects in other African countries that are similar to those carried out or planned in Burundi. Project Implementation 43. The Ministry of Planning will be responsible for the overall imple- mentation of the project (Section 3.01 of the draft Development Credit Agree- ment)and will coordinate its execution with the government agencies concerned by the project. It will also formulate specific proposals for the use of  - 15 - the Credit inasmuch as its utilization has not yet been defined and submit these proposals to the Association for prior approval (Section 3.06 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). Contracts with consultants and individual experts will be subject to the approval of the Association (Section 3.03(a) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). Because information on qualified consultant firms and experts is not readily available in Burundi and in order to avoid delays due to slow international communications, the Association will assist the Government in the recruitment process. Funds will be provided to permit the Government to interview selected candidates in Bujumbura to ensure that the Government is satisfied with their qualifications and their suitability for the job. Final selection of both individual candidates and of firms will be made by the Government Project Cost and Financing 44. The total cost of the project has been estimated at US$3.0 million (including a negligible amount of taxes) of which US$2.5 million or 83 percent is foreign exchange. The costs by category of expenditure are summarized as follows: Foreign Exchange Local Foreign Total Component --US$ thousands equivalent-- % Long term advisory services 300 1,310 1,610 81 Short term advisory services 170 940 1,110 84 Training - 150 150 100 Equipment & Vehicles 10 50 60 83 Unallocated 20 50 70 71 500 2,500 3,000 83 The cost of one expert-year has been estimated at about US$84,000 correspond- ing to US$7,000 per month (including overhead costs). About US$20,000 has been allocated for recruitment activities, such as advertisements and inter- views. The project also provides for the purchase of a limited number of vehicles and office equipment and supplies to support the activities of the advisers. The Government will finance office accommodation, secretarial assistance and counterpart salaries estimated at about 20 percent of the total emolument of the advisers. The proposed credit will finance 83 percent of the total cost of the project. It is expected to be fully committed by mid-1981. Procurement and Disbursement 45. The selection of consultants will be in accordance with the Associ- ation's normal procedures. Procurement of equipment and vehicles will be in accordance with the Borrower's normal procedures which include soliciting competitive bids from local suppliers and are considered satisfactory. The Association will disburse 100 percent of foreign expenditures for salaries and emoluments of advisers, consultancy services, and of the foreign costs of training; in respect of equipment and vehicles, the Association will disburse 100 percent of foreign expenditures or 80 percent of local expenditures.  - 16 - Benefits and Risks 46. The technical expertise to be provided under the proposed project will help the Government to continue its efforts to formulate more effective development programs and to identify and prepare specific investment projects. It will help strengthen the Government's planning and project preparation capacity by alleviating the critical shortage of experienced economists, agriculturalists, individual experts and statisticians. It will also permit the Government to make more efficient use of the foreign aid extended to Burundi in the field of economic planning in general and agricultural and industrial planning and project preparation in particular. Optimally, the project would result in the identification and preparation of a number of viable investment projects. However, given the fact that Burundi is still at an early stage of development and facing critical socio-economic constraints, the time frame within which substantial results can be realistically expected remains uncertain. Moreover, some delays in execution of the proposed project may be expected in recruiting suitably qualified experts and the assignment of counterpart staff. To minimize such delays, the Association will closely supervise the project and assist in the recruitment of advisers and consulting firms. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 47. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the Republic of Burundi and the Association, and the Recommendation of the Committee pro- vided for in Article V, Section 1(d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Association are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 48. Special conditions of the project are listed in Section III of Annex III of this report. 49. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 50. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Credit. Robert S. McNamara President Attachments By I.P.M. Cargill Washington, D.C. May 8, 1979  -'17 - ANNEX I Page 1 of 5 TABLE 3A BURUNDI - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET REFERENCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED AVERAGES BURUNDI /a LAND AREA (THOUSAND S0. 1i.) - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) TOTAL 27.8 SAME SAME NEXT HIGHER AGRICULTURAL 16.9 MOST RECENT GEOGRAPHIC INCOME INCOME 1960 /b 1970 Lb ESTIMATE Lb REGION /c GROUP /d GROUP /e GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 50.0 80.0 130.0 223.6 182.9 432.3 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 10.0 /f 15.0 13.0 86.7 88.9 251.7 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS TOTAL POPULATION, MID-YEAR (MILLIONS) 2.8 3.4 4.0 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 1.9 3.1 3.7 13.6 15.0 24.2 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. 10M. 99.0 121.0 144.0 18.4 46.8 42.7 PER SQ. RH. AGRICULTURAL LAND 173.0 206.0 237.0 53.6 254.1 95.0 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 46.8 /g 45.0 44.1 /h 44.4 43.6 44.9 15-64 YRS. 49.0 /J 52.0 /i 53.8 /h 52.7 53.3 52.8 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 4.2 /g 3.0 1i 2.1 lh 2.8 2.9 3.0 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.6 2.4 2.7 URBAN 5.3 7.1 5.8 5.8 4.0 8.8 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 48.3 47.9 48.0 46.9 44.3 42.2 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 30.6 28.0 24.7 20.6 19.7 12.4 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 2.6 /1 2.8 2.8 3.1 2.9 3.2 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) .. .. .. USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. .. 2.5 14.6 14.2 FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1970=100) 87.9 100.0 97.2 94.2 96.4 104.3 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 82.0 99.0 99.0 90.1 92.3 99.5 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 47.0 61.0 62.0 1k 55.2 50.0 56.8 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 28.0 40.0 .. 17.1 13.9 17.5 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE .. .. .. .. .. 7.5 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 33.5 38.5 39.0 43.7 45.8 53.3 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) 150.0 /g 138.0 .. 138.4 102.7 82.5 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. .. 22.4 26.4 31.1 URBAN .. 77.0 .. 66.3 63.5 68.5 RURAL .. .. .. 10.4 14.1 18.2 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. .. 23.9 16.1 37.5 URBAN .. .. .. 70.3 65.9 69.5 RURAL .. .. .. 14.2 3.4 25.4 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 63000.0 59000.0 45110.0 21757.5 13432.7 9359.2 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 5420.0 7500.0 5500.0 3473.8 6983.3 2762.5 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 730.0 790.0 760.0 645.4 1157.6 786.5 URBAN .. 70.0 .. 172.9 183.3 278.4 RURAL .. 730.0 .. 1292.6 1348.8 1358.4 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. .. .. 19.2 19.5 19.2 HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL .. .. .. 4.9 5.2 URBAN .. .. .. 5.0 4.8 RURAL .. .. .. 4.7 5.3 AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL .. .. .. URBAN .. .. .. .. 1.8 2.3 RURAL .. .. .. ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. .. .. 25.9 28.3 URBAN .. .. .. RURAL .. .. .. .. 8.7 10.3  ANNEX I -18- Page 2 of 5 TABLE 3A BURUNDI - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET REFERENCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED AVERAGES BURUNDI - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) / SAME SAME NEXT HIGHER MOST RECENT GEOGRAPHIC INCOME INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b REGION /c GROUP /d GROUP /e EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 19.0 21.7 12.6 52.1 62.9 75.8 FEMALE 9.0 14.4 9.5 37.6 45.9 67.9 SECONDARY: TOTAL 1.0 2.0 3.0 8.0 14.4 17.7 FEMALE 1.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 8.8 12.9 VOCATIONAL (PERCENT OF SECONDARY) 35.0 24.0 15.0 7.2 6.6 7.4 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY 36.0 37.0 31.0 43.2 38.5 34.3 SECONDARY 15.0 12.0 18.0 22.8 19.8 23.5 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 13.9 .. 10.0 20.3 36.7 63.7 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 0.8 1.0 1.1 3.9 3.1 7.2 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. 18.0 27.0 40.1 31.1 71.1 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. .. .. 2.2 2.8 14.1 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. 0.1 0.3 3.9 6.0 16.3 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA .. .. .. 1.2 1.4 1.6 EMPLOYMENT TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 1500.0 1700.0 1900.0 FEHALE (PERCENT) 45.1 44.8 44.4 32.6 24.2 28.0 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 90.0 86.0 .. 73.3 60.7 54.1 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 3.0 3.9 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 52.7 51.2 49.6 42.0 39.8 37.8 MALE 58.5 57.2 55.8 54.8 53.3 50.3 FEMALE 47.0 45.3 43.4 27.3 19.6 20.9 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.3 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. .. .. 25.7 20.3 19.5 HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. .. .. 55.1 45.1 48.9 LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. .. .. 5.8 5.7 5.9 LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. .. .. 14.5 16.8 15.7 POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 121.0 108.8 88.5 155.9 RURAL .. .. 80.0 74.1 71.9 97.9 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. 124.4 100.8 143.7 RURAL .. .. 30.0 59.6 42.0 87.3 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. 30.0 26.8 46.0 22.9 RURAL *- *- 90.0 47.6 48.0 36.7 Not available Not applicable. NOTES la The adjusted group averages for each indicator are population-weighted geometric means, excluding the extreme values of the indicator and the most populated country in each group. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /b Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1973 and 1977. /c Africa South of Sahara; /d Low Income ($280 or less per capita, 1976); /e Lower Middle Income ($281-550 per capita. 1976); If 1962; /g 1965; /h Population aged 15-59 and 60 years and over respectively; /i 1971; Li 1957; /k 1967-71 average. September, 1978  - 19 - AEX I DEFIlITIMyS OF SOL AT 'X stir Page 3 of 5 Xote: The adjusted group averages for each indicator are population-weighted geometric means, excluding the extreme values of the indicator and the most populated country in each group. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. Due to lack of data, group averages for Capital Surplus Oil Exporters and indicators of access to water and excreta disposal, housing, income distribution and poverty are simplo p-oulatios-weighted geometric means withu-t the exclusion of extrcme values. _'iND AREA (thousand sq. ka.) Population per hospital bed - total, urban, and rural - Population (total, Total - Total surface area comprising land area and inland waters. urban, and rural) divided by their respective number of hospital beds Agricultural - Most recent estimate of agricultural area used temporarily available in public and private general and specialized hospital and re- or permanently for crops, pastures, market and kitchen gardens or to habilitation centers. Hospitals are establishments permanently staffed bh lie fallow. at least one physician. Establishments providing principally custodial care are not included. Rural hospitals, hosever, include health and nedi- GNP PER CAPITA (1S$) - C-NP per capita esti-atos at current market prices, cal centers not permanently staffed by a physician (but by a medical as- calculated by same conversion method as World Bank Atlas (1975-77 basis); sistont, marse, midwife, etc.) which offer in-patient accommodation and 1960, 1971, and 19.77 data. provide a limited range of medical facilities. Admissions per hospital bed - Total number of admissions to or discharges ENERGY CONSUMIPTION PER CAPITA - Annual consumption of commercial energy from hospitals divided by the number of beds. (coal and lignite, petroleum, natural gas and hydro-, nuclear and geo- thermal electricity) in kilograms of coal equivalent per capita. HOUSING Average sice of household (persons per household) - total, urban, and rural- POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS A household consists of a group of individuals who share living quartecrs Total population, mid-year (millions) - As of July 1; if not available, and their main meals. A boarder or lodger may or may not be included it average of two end-year estimates; 1960, 1970, and 1977 data. the household for statistical purposes. Statistical definitions cf house- Urban population (percent of cotal) - Ratio of urban to total popula- hold vary. tiom; different definitions of urban areas may affect comparability Average number of persons per coon - total, urban, and rural - Average num- of data among countries. ber of persons per room in all, urban, and rural occupied conventional Population density dwellings, respectively. Dwellings emclude non-permane-t structures and Per so. km., - Mid-year population per square kilometer (100 hectares) unoccupied parts. of total area. Access to electricity (percent of dwellings) - totai, urban, and rural - Per sq. km. agriculture land - Computed as above for agricultural land Conventional dwellings with electricity in living quarters an percentage only. of total, urban, and rural dwellings respectively. Fopulatisn age structure (peroent) - Children (0-14 years), working-age (15-64 years). and retired (65 years and over) as percentages of mid- EDUCATION year population. Adjusted enroilment ratios Population growth rata (percent) - total, and urban - Compound annual Primary school - total, and female - Total and female enrollment of all ages growth rates of total and urban mid-year populations for 1950-60, at the primary level as percentages of respectively primary school-age 1960-70, and 1970-75. populations; normally includes children aged 6-11 years but adjusted fon Crude birth rate (per thousand) - Annual live births per thousand of different lengths of primary education; for countries with universal edu- mid-year population; ten-year arithmetic averages ending in 1960 and cation enrollment may exceed 100 percent since some pupils are below or 1970 and five-year average ending in 1975 for most recent estimate. above the official school age. Crude death rare (per thousand) - Annual deaths per thousand of mid- Secondary school - total, and female - Computed as above; secondary educa- year population; ten-year arithmetic averages ending in 1960 and 1970 tion requires at least four years cf approved primary instruction; pro- and five-year average ending in 1975 for os.t recent estimate. vides general vocational, or teacher training instructions for pupils Cross reproduction rate - Average number of daughters a woman will bear usually of 12 to 17 years of age; correopcsdeoce courses are generally in her normal seproductive period if she experiences present age- excluded. specific fertility rates; usually five-year averages ending in 1960, Vocational enrollment (percent of secondary) - Vocational institutions in- 1970, and 1975. clude technical, industrial, or other programs which operate independently Family planning - acceptors, annual (thousands) - Annual number of or as departments of secondary institutions. acceptors of birth-control devices under auspices of national family Pupil-teacher ratio - primary, and secendary - Total students enrolled in planning program, primary and secondary levels divided by numbers of teachers in the sore- Family planning - users (percent of married women) - Percentage of spending levels. married women of child-bearing age (15-44 years) who use birth-control Adult literacy rate (percent) - Literate adults (able to read and write) a, devices to all married women in same age group. a percentage of total adult population aged 15 years and over. FOOD AND NUTRITION CONSUMPTION Index of food production per capita (1970=100) - Inde. number of per Passenger cars (per thousand population) - Passenger cars comprise motor cars capita annual production of all foc commodities. seating loss than eight persons; excludes ambulances, hearses and military Per capita supply of calories (percent of recuirements) - Computed from vehicles. energy equivalent of net food supplies available in country per capita Radio receivers (per thousand population) - All types of receivers for radio per day. Available supplies cnmprioe domestic production, imports less broadcasts to general public per thousaod of population; excludes unli-ensed exports, and changes in stock. Net supplies exclude animal feed, seeds, receivers in countries and in years when registraticn of radio sets was is quantities used in food processing, and losses in distribution. Re- effect; data for recent years may not bh co-parable since most countries quiremen-t were estimated by FAO based on physiological needs for nor- abolished licensing. mal activity and health considering environmental temperature, body TV receivers (per thousand population) - TV receivers for broadcast to generei weights, age and sea distributions of population, and allowing 10 per- public per thousand population; excludes unlicensed TV receivers in coon- cent for waste at household level. tries and in yearn when registration of TV sets was in effect. Per capita supply of pratein (grams per day) - Protein content of per Newspaper circulation (per thousand population) - Shows the average circla- capita net supply of food per day. Net supply of food is defined as timn of "daily general interest newspaper", defined as a periodical publi- above. Requirements for all countries established by USDA provide for cation devoted primarily to recording general news. It Is considered to a minimum allowance of 60 grams of total protein per day and 20 grams be "daily" if it appears at least four tines a week. of animal and pulse protein, of which 10 grams should be animal protein. Cinema annual attendance per capita per year - sed on the number of tickets These standards are lower than those of 75 grams of total protein and sold during the year, including admissions to drive-in ciner.o and mobile 23 grams of animal protein as an average for the world, proposed by units. FA0 in the Third World FPod Survey. Per capita protein supply from animal and pulse - Protein supply of food EMiPLOYMENT derived from animals and pulses in grams per day. Total labor farce (thousands) - Ec-onically active persons, including armed Child (ages 1-4) mortality rate (per thousand) - Annual deaths per thous- forces and nnemployed but excluding housewives, students, etc. Defiri- and in age group 1-4 years, to children in this age group. tinns in various countries arc sot comparable. Female (percent) - Fmale labor force as percennage of total labo force. HRALTH Agriculture (percent) - Labor force in farming, forestry, hunting and fishing Life expectancy at birth (years) - Average number of years of life as percentage of total labor fo. remaining at birth; usually five-year averages ending in 1960, 1970, Industry (Percent) - Labor force in mining, consrructio, manufacturing an and 1975. electricity, vater and gas as percentage of total labor force. Infant mortality race (per thousand) - Annual deaths of infants under Participation rate (percent) - total, male, and feeale - Total, male, and one year of age per thousand live birhts. lemale labor force as percentages of their respective populaticos. Access to safe water (percent of population) - total, urban, and rural - Ihese are ILO's djusted participutcin rates reflect-eg age-see Number of people (total, urban, and rural) with reasonable access to strorrere c the pr artior, nd 1eg tine trend. safe water supply (includes treated surface waters or untreated bat Ecorom.l dopecienap ratio - Ratio of o-oulatios ceder 15 acc h65 cd over to uncontaminated water such as that from protected boreholes, springs, the labhr force in age group of l5-6. years. and sanitary wells) as percentages of their respective populations. In en urban area a public fountai, or standpcst located not more INCO0oE DISTRIBCTION thus 2D0 meters from a hbuse .ay be cosondeced as being within tea- Percentage of private iscome (both in ranh and kind) receIved by richest 5 sonable access of that house. Is rural areas reasonable access would percent, richest 20 percent, poorest 20 percent, and procest 40 percent imply that the housewife or members of the household do not have to of households. spend a disproportionate part of tho day in fetching the family's water needs. POVERTY TARCEr GROUPS Access t ocoxreto disposal (percent of population) - total, urban, and Estimated absolute poverty income level (US$ per capita) - urban ass rur.. - rural - Number of people (total, urban, and rural) served by excreta Absolute poverty income level is that income level below whiih a uimul disposal as percentages of their respective populations. Exoreta nutritionull-y adequate diet plus essential non-food recuirements ir disposal may include the collection and disposal, with or without affordab- treatment, of huoan excreta and waste-water by water-borne systems tinated relative poverty income level (US$ per capita) - urban and -ral - or the use cf pit privies and similar installaticns. Relative poverty income level is that income level less than one-third Insularism per physician - Population divided by number of practicing per capita personal income of the country. physicians qualified from a nedical school at universiry level. fotneatnp population below powerst income devel (perrent) - orba- and cral - Population per nursing person - Population divided by number of Percent of population (urban and rural) who are either "absolute poor" or practicing male and female graduate nurses, practical nurses, and "relative poor" whichever is greater. assistant nurses. Economic and Social Data Division Economic Analysis and Projections Department  -20 -A=.''iE I Page 4 of 5 pages ECONOMIC INDICATORS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 197T ANNUAL RATE OF GROI'JH (%, constant prices) US$ Mln. % 197-76 1977 GNP at Market Prices 539.1 100.0 2.1 3.7 Gross Domestic Investment 60.2 11.2 3.4 13.5 Gross National Saving 48.1 8.9 5.5 -83.5 Current Account Balance 16.9 3.1 Exports of Goods, NFS 96.3 17.9 1.0 -14.6 Imports of Goods, NFS 94.7 17.6 3.5 18.3 OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 1977 Value Added US$ Ml3n. Agriculture 320.6 64.1 Industry 64.7 12.9 Services 115.3 23.0 Unallocated 0.0 0.0 Total/Average 500.6 lO.0 OOVERNMENT FINANCE Central Government 1/ (BuF Mln.) T of GDP - - -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~12277 1977 - l1=- Current Receipts T,998.0 16.3 12.8 Current Expenditure 5.206.7 10 10.6 Current Surplus 2,791.3 5.7 2.2 Capital Expenditures 1,928.0 3.9 2.2 External Assistance (net) 2| 2,385.0 4.9 4.2 HDNWY. CREDIT and PRICES 1974 19T5 1976 197T 1978 - - G (Million BuF outstanding end period) Money and Quasi Money 3,542.3 3,544.4 5,220.4 8,283.2 9,411.2 Bank credit to Public Sector 897.6 1,271.6 1,125.0 270.8 1,467.0 Bank Credit to Private Sector 2,730.0 1,322.6 1,532.2 1,886.9 4,491.3 - - g - (Percentages or Index Numbers) Money and Quasi Money as % of GDP 15.8 15.5 21.0 30.9 15.1 General Price Index (1970 - 100) 132.2 153.1 164.5 175.7 212.6 Annual percentage changes int General Price Index 15.8 15.8 7.4 6.8 21.0 Bank credit to Pablic Sector - 41.7 -11.5 -75.9 441.7 Bank credit to Private Sector 88.8 -51.6 53.7 23.1 138.0 NOTE: All conversions to dollars in this table.are at the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered. E Budgetary transactions only. 2/ Grants and net foreign disbursements to the public sector. not available - not applicable f  ANNEX I -21 - Page 5 of 5 pag.s TRADe PAThKNTS AND CAPITAL FI0WS SAANCE OF PAYMENgS mEu rNDISX EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1975-77) 1975 1976 1977 USSNMn 7 (millions US $) Exports of Goods, NFS 34.8 61.5 96.3 Coffee 55.4 91.6 Iports of Goods, NFS 80.0 77.5 94.7 Cotton 1.0 1.7 Resource Gai) (deficit -) 4 - 6 Skes 173 12 rnterest Payments (net) -o04 -C05 -0.5 Workers' Remittances -8.2 -10.7 -13.2 other Factor Payments (net) - - - Net Transfers 21i 1 31.4 29.0 All other commodities 2.1 3.4 Balance on Current Accoumt -32.7 4 2 Tot1l 60.5 1000 Direct Foreign Investment - - - EXTERN&L DEBS DECEMBER 31. 19z8 Net MLT Borrowing Disbursements 14.7 4.2 -14.8 US $ Mln Amortization 1.6 2.3 2.2 Subtotal 13.1 1.9 12.6 Public Debt, imcl. guaranteed 55.5 Capital Grants 18.4 13.9 13.9 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt Other Capital (net) 17.8 -7.0 -0.3 Total outstanding & Disbursed 55.5 Other items n.e.i -2:L ] Ll 0. . 555 Increase in Reserves (+) 14 5 14.1 44 DEBT SERVICE RATIO for 1977- Gross Reserves (end year) i/3|27.o 49.2 95 8 Net Reserves (end year) 31 28_0 42.1 86_1 Public Debt, inl. guaranteed 2.8 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt Fuel and Related Materials3 Total outstanding & Disbursed Imports of which. Petroleum 3.7 5.8 5.6 Eports of which: Petroleum - _ BRD/IDA LENDING, March 31, 1979 (Million US$) IB-RD IDA RATE OF EXCHANGE Outstanding & Disbursed - 1T.9 rk;oMh Feb. 1973 Since MY 3, 1976 Undisbursed - 30.5 US $ 1.00 - BuF 8 $5 us I 111 90 Outstanding inl. Undisbursed - 48.4 BuF loo - us $1.14 BuF 1