Jordan - Third Education Project

Document of FILE COPY The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-2654-JO REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN FOR A THIRD EDUCATION PROJECT November 26, 1979 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performLnce of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CU.RENCY EQUIVALENTS US$ 1.00 = Jordanian Dinar (JD) 0.295 JD 1.000 = US$ 3.39 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 ABBREVIATIONS DEO District Education Office MIS Management Information System MOE - Ministry of Education NPC - National Planning Council TTI - Teacher Training Institute VTC - Vocational Training Corporation VTS - Vocational Training Society  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN THIRD EDUCATION PROJECT Loan and Proiect Summary Borrower: Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan Amount: US$19.0 million equivalent Terms: 17 years, including a grace period of four years, at 7.95 percent per annum. Prolect Description: The project is designed to assist the government in train- ing skilled manpower urgently required for implemetnting the economic development plan, improving the quality of education, and enhancing the Ministry of Education's (MOE) management capabilities. For these purposes, the project would help the government in: (a) expanding post- secondary technician and secondary level vocational train- ing; (b) meeting deficiencies in the supply of teachers; (c) improving the quality of secondary agricultural education; (d) expanding adult education and training; (e) upgrading school building maintenance; and (f) estab- lishing a computerized management information system in the MOE and technical assistance to strengthen planning, management, research and evaluation in the MOE. In support of these objectives, the project would consist of: (a) construction/extension of and equipment and furniture for one training complex, five comprehensive secondary schools (two extensions), one agricultural secondary school (extension), one prevocational teacher training institute (extension), one community college, and one computerized management information system; (b) equipment for eight mobile building maintenance units; and (c) technical assistance related to the above,, and for strengthening the MOE's capability in research, evaluation, and project implementation. The project institutions would provide about 5,400 new training places (about 3,100 for replacement) and would upgrade about 1,300 existing places. The project institutions would add about 160 technicians, 390 subject and prevocational craft teachers and 30 primary school teachers, 650 craftsmen/ skilled workers, 150 female graduates trained in commerce and home economics, and 70 skilled agricultural workers to the annual output from the formal education system. The project faces no special risks. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performnce of their offcial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclsed without World Bank authorition.  Estimated Cost: ----US$ Millions------ Local Foreign Total 1 trade training complex 2.4 2.0 4.4 1 community college 2.2 1.9 4.1 5 comprehensive schools 7.9 6.0 13.9 1 prevocational teacher training 2.0 1.4 3.4 1 secondary agricultural school 0.2 0.4 0.6 1 management information system 0.1 0.7 0.8 8 mobile school maintenance units - 0.6 0.6 Technical Assistance: Specialists 0.2 1.6 1.8 Fellowships 0.2 0.7 0.9 Baseline Cost 15.2 15.3 30.5 Physical Contingencies 1.5 1.4 2.9 Price Escalation 3.1 3.6 6.7 Total Project Cost 19.8 20.3 40.1 Financing Plan Local Foreign Total --------$ million------ Bank loan - 19.0 19.0 UNDP 0.2 1.3 1.5 Government contribution 19.6 - 19.6 Total 19.8 20.3 40.1 Estimated Disbursement: Bank FY 1981 1982 1983 1984 --------$ million-------- Annual 1.5 5.3 9.7 2.5 Cummulative 1.5 6.8 16.5 19.0 Appraisal Report: No. 2632-JO Date: November 15, 1979  INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE IBRD TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN FOR A THIRD EDUCATION PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed Bank loan of US$19.0 million equivalent to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, to help finance the Third Education Project. The loan will have a term of 17 years, including 4 years of grace, with interest at 7.95 percent per annum. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. A report entitled "Country Economic Memorandum on Jordan" (No. 1738-JO, dated January 9, 1978) was distributed to the Executive Directors on January 19, 1978. An updating economic mission visited Jordan in July 1978 and its findings are reflected in this report. Country data sheets are attached as Annex 1. 3. Jordan is a small country of only 2.2 million people (East Bank). Due to limited natural resources, the structure of output and employment is service and trade-dominated. The economy's service-oriented character is reflected in Jordan's increasing role as a provider of manpower to neighboring countries and a regional tourist center, particularly since the disruptions in Lebanon. Jordan has benefited from its regional setting in terms of foreign exchange inflows in the form of external grants, workers' remittances, exports and tourism revenues. However, costs of this role to the economy have been the outflow of scarce skilled labor and the emergence of a saving con- straint due to the high defense expenditures and the impetus towards higher consumption. Recent Developments 4. During the Three Year Plan (1973-75), GDP grew at about 5 percent per year. Agriculture stagnated as a result of droughts while the industrial sector increased its share of GDP, mainly due to increased production and prices of phosphates and rapid growth in manufacturing output, encouraged by higher domestic and external demand. Since the country embarked on a Five- Year Development Plan in early 1976, overall economic growth has atccelerated. Between 1976 and 1978 GDP at market prices grew at about ten percent in real terms led by a strong growth in agriculture (13 percent per year) and industry (15 percent per year). Investment expenditures, which averaged 28 percent of GDP in 1973-1975, have accelerated further reaching 41 and 42 percent of GDP 1/ Part I of this report is essentially identical, except for updating, to paragraphs 2-16 of the President's Report No. P-2476-JO on a Loan for the Third Power Project, dated March 28, 1979.  in 1977 and 1978. This strong upward trend in investment expenditure reflects the increased availability of foreign resources in the form of grants, foreign loans and labor remittances. 5. Despite a significant increase in exports in recent years, increased investment efforts have led to rapidly rising imports and widening trade deficit. Nevertheless, the overall balance of payments position has remained strong owing to increased earnings from tourism and workers' remittances and the large inflow of foreign aid. Despite a decline in earnings from phos- phates, between 1975 and 1978, export earnings increased by 20-25 percent per year (in dollar terms), mainly due to an increase in manufactured good exports, aided by higher prices of fruit and vegetable exports. Imports in the meanwhile rose by 37 percent per year, owing mainly to an increase in raw material and capital good imports. In 1978, however, the growth of imports declined to about 17 percent over 1977 due to a lower inflow of foreign assis- tance and the completion of important projects. During the period 1975-1978 Jordan's net earnings on services tripled to over $600 million in 1978 as a result of increasing inflows of remittances (encouraged by the climate of financial stability in Jordan and the boom in real estate) and earnings from tourism. Inflow of foreign aid, although fluctuating from year to year, continues to play a key role in the Jordanian economy. After peaking to over $500 million in 1977, foreign aid declined to about $410 million in 1978. Following the Baghdad Conference in November 1978, inflows are rising again and are likely to amount to a record high of about $1.0 billion in 1979. The level of gross reserves increased substantially to $923 million at end-1978 (equivalent to about 7 months of imports) because of foreign exchange appre- ciation. 6. Although the Government budget is still heavily dependent on foreign grants, remarkable improvements have been made in expanding domestic revenues, which accounted in 1978 for about 64 percent of total revenues as compared to 53 percent in the average of 1975-1977. The increase in domestic revenues was mainly due to increased custom duties, a higher tax rate on corporate profits and improved collection of personal income tax. Despite a 90 percent increase in domestic revenues and the sizeable inflow of foreign grants over the period 1975-1978, the budget deficit has increased considerably as a result of stepped up government expenditure on both the recurrent (68 percent increase) and capital (95 percent increase) accounts. Partly also as a result of the decline in foreign grants, the budget deficit was at a record high of JD 117 million in 1978. 7. The domestic budget deficit, combined with accelerated private sector credit led in 1978 to a 29 percent growth rate in domestic liquidity (compared with 23 percent in 1977). The acceleration in the growth of private sector credit reflected a policy decision to encourage economic activity following the slowdown experienced in 1977. The inflationary impact was some- what mitigated both by the propensity of Jordanians to hold cash balances as a precautionary measure and the tendency of commercial banks to hold liquid reserves at higher-than-required levels. Large amounts of credit were directed to the tertiary sector and revived construction activities. Indus- trial investment has in the past relied largely on retained earnings or direct support from Government but is now relying more upon financial resources  -3- mobilized by the banking sector. Also, the Amman Stock Exchange has been instrumental in mobilizing financial resources for industrial enterprises since its inception in January 1977. Lending to industry amounted to 11 percent of all outstanding credit at the end of 1978. 8. The cost of living index increased by nearly 15 percent per year during 1973-76. The rate of increase since dropped to 11 percent in 1977 and 7 percent in 1978. Inflationary pressures resulted from both domestic and external factors. Although the growth in money supply has been a contributing factor, some causes of inflation were external, such as the sharp rise in the prices of imported goods, strong demand for Jordanian goods and services by neighboring countries, growing inflows of workers' remittances, andl the speculation in real estate which accompanied the influx of refugees and businesses from Lebanon. 9. Partly as a result of the continuing migration of Jordanian labor to neighboring countries and partly because of the rapid economic development, the labor market has now reached a situation of full employment and pressures have emerged on the demand side. About 150,000 Jordanians are estimated to be working abroad, compared to total domestic employment of about 400,000. Labor force participation rates are low, particularly for women. The Government has been trying to increase female participation rates by opening up employment opportunities for women and by expanding child care facilities. It: has also given increased emphasis to education, particularly to vocational training, and has provided a broad range of social services to attract Jordanian labor. There is an increasing propensity, in both private and public sectors, to increase the capital intensity of projects in order to economize ort labor. Medium-term Prospects 10. The primary objectives of the current Five-Year Plan (1976-80) are to diversify the productive structure of the economy, increase overall growth, and improve tax and export revenues in order to reduce dependence on external assistance and achieve self-reliance in the long run. This involves exploit- ing phosphates and potash resources for export; extending irrigation in the Jordan Valley to increase agricultural production, particularly of high-value fruits and vegetables for export where Jordan enjoys a comparative advantage in the region; promoting production of export-oriented consumer goods indus- tries; and strengthening infrastructure in the transport and services sector to serve regional development needs and earn additional foreign exchange. During the first three years of the Plan the investment targets were attained. The overall implementation ratio was at the end of 1978 about 95 percent of the original targets corrected for inflation. Social issues are being given increasing attention by the Government, which is currently formulating a program of action to assist low income groups and rural areas. 11. The medium-term prospects for growth are good, with a likely GDP growth rate of 6-8 percent per year in real terms. Overall investment is likely to stay at a high level but may decline as a proportion of GDP from the exceptionally high rates experienced in 1976-1978 (about 40 percent of GDP). Jordan's development and export prospects depend on the impLementation  - 4 - of major projects (phosphate rock mining, potash, phosphatic fertilizer, oil refining and the Maqarin dam) and the vitality of the private sector. Phos- phate production may rise to 5 million tons per year by the early 1980s. If the proposed projects are implemented on time and if the marketing is care- fully arranged, exports of potash and phosphatic fertilizer should yield substantial foreign exchange earnings in the early eighties. In industry, priorities have been well established and the Government encourages industrial development. In view of Jordan's stock of entrepreneurial skills and the market for medium-scale industrial products in neighboring countries, the private sector should continue to show healthy growth. Further improvements in packaging and marketing, however, are needed for export promotion. In agriculture, the focus of the Government is correctly on developing irrigated agriculture. But increased attention will need to be paid to rainfed agricul- ture in order to correct the weak institutional and coordinating machinery, reduce fragmentation of landholdings and, improve research and extension services. Development Issues 12. To achieve gradually the Government's self-sufficiency objectives, domestic resource mobilization will need to be increased. The Government can restrain current expenditure growth to some extent. But given the impact of high wages and salaries in neighboring countries, greater possibilities lie in increased revenues rather than in controlling expenditures. Tax collection efforts need to be further increased, and consideration should be given to reducing the high tax holidays and exemptions of business and individuals. There is also some scope for increasing taxes on real estate and on non- essential imported consumer goods. Domestic demand management and financial controls need to be improved, both to reduce inflationary pressures and to improve domestic resource mobilization. Efforts are currently being made to issue a variety of debt instruments to cover financing gaps in the Government sector and to develop a secondary market for these issues. Similarly, the Government is encouraging public and private corporations to issue bonds so as to raise capital directly from the public. 13. Labor migration to neighboring countries is expected to continue and is likely to cause shortages of labor in Jordan, particularly skilled labor. The Government has correctly decided to focus on the supply of labor rather than attempt to restrict its outflow; a 30 percent outflow of skilled labor is assumed in the education and training plans. The low participation rates, particularly among women, and the underemployed labor in the rainfed areas represent potential for increased labor supplies. In order to retain scarce skilled labor in Jordan, the Government is also providing low cost housing, and various subsidies to reduce the price of imported food staples. However, most of the subsidies are provided with insufficient selectivity in terms of recipients, and the Government intends to review this policy. 14. Because of their size, Jordan's prospective investments in several major projects (phosphate mining, phosphatic fertilizer, potash and Maqarin Dam) require especially careful resource planning. These investments (exclud- ing the Maqarin Dam, for which works will not start before 1981) are expected  to amount to about one-third of total investment during the remainder of the current Plan period. Although these projects will tax Jordan's limited physical, human, and financial resources, they are net foreign exchange generating projects exploiting Jordan's rather meager natural resources. Jordan should explore carefully the impact of these projects on its external debt servicing capacity, as significant amounts of foreign exchange are required for their financing. So far, Jordan has been successful both in phasing investment so as not to burden its foreign exchange resources unduly, and in obtaining substantial amounts of external assistance on relatively concessional terms for the first three above-mentioned projects; financing of the large investments related to the Maqarin Dam and associated irrigation and water supply development is currently under discussion. External Assistance 15. External public debt outstanding and disbursed as of December 1978 was $825 million ($1,594 million including undisbursed). Of this total, loans from bilateral sources amounted to $533 million ($1,052 million including undisbursed) and accounted for 65 percent. Outstanding debt to IDA and the IBRD was $54.0 million ($120.7 million including undisbursed). SiLnce the bulk of Jordan's foreign debt has been secured on concessional terms, the debt service burden remains low. Debt service payments amounted to $53.9 million in 1978, equivalent to 6.6 percent of total exports of goods and non-factor services. 16. Despite an expected improvement in domestic resource mobilization (para. 12), Jordan still needs substantial external capital inflows to finance its development efforts apart from the large external budget support devo.ed chiefly to military expenditures (para. 5). Judging from past trends in commitments by donor countries, Jordan is expected to mobilize anaually loan commitments from USA, Federal Republic of Germany, and UK totalling $75-$90 million at relatively concessionary terms (2-3 percent interest rate, 20-40 years maturity, with 4-10 years grace) in addition to substantial loans from Arab multilateral and bilateral sources (para. 5). Jordan can also absorb more borrowings on commercial terms, mostly in suppliers' credits. The debt service ratio is expected to reach 9-10 percent in the early eighties, but should remain manageable if the Government continues to exercise the restraint it has shown in the past. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS 17. Jordan has received two Bank loans totalling $50 million and fifteen IDA credits totalling $83.8 million (net of cancellations) of which nine have been fully disbursed. War and local disturbances adversely affected the pace of economic activity after 1967, and Bank Group lending only resumed in mid- 1971. Project implementation is generally satisfactory. As of June 30, 1979 disbursements amounted to 62 percent of appraisal estimates and 75 percent of revised estimates. The IDA credits have mainly financed physical and social infrastructure projects, such as education, highways, water supply and  - 6 - sewerage, power and irrigation. With Jordan having attained a stage in its economic development where it can be considered creditworthy for Bank lending, and having reached a GNP per capita level ($560 in 1976) that exceeded IDA limits, the Third Amman Water Supply and Sewerage Project, approved in March 1978, was the last project financed through an IDA Credit. IFC has made-four investments in Jordan consisting of a $244,000 equity participation and a $1.6 million loan to Jordan Ceramic Industries Limited (JCI) in 1974, a $3.1 million equity participation in the promotion of a phosphatic fertilizer project in 1975 including a subsequent $20 million loan in June, 1978 (see para 19), a $667,000 equity participation and a $2.5 million loan to a brick company in December 1978 and $600,700 equity participation in the Jordan Security Corporation in June 1979. Annex II contains a summary statement of Bank loans and IDA credits and IFC investments as of October 31, 1979, and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 18. Unlike past Bank Group assistance to Jordan which was largely for infrastructure projects, recent and proposed lending is also directed toward large export oriented projects with foreign exchange earning potential for which the Bank Group has closely cooperated with the Government in project preparation and in mobilizing large external financial assistance. In addi- tion, the Bank Group is assisting the Government in implementing its social objectives enunciated in the Five-Year Plan (1976-80) aimed at improving the income and living standards of the rural and urban poor. 19. In line with these overall objectives, the Bank Group provided technical assistance for developing and implementing a plan for expanding phosphate rock production, and a comprehensive program for a second phase of development of the irrigation and agricultural potential of the Jordan Valley and for water supply based on the Maqarin Dam. An Engineering Credit was made in FY1975 to help prepare the project for potash production from the Dead Sea via solar evaporation, for which a loan was approved by the Executive Directors on September 5, 1978. In addition IFC has assisted the Government in preparing a phosphatic fertilizer project to produce diammonium phosphate (DAP) and triple superphosphate (TSP) for which an IFC loan of $20 million was approved by the Executive Directors on June 27, 1978, in addition to IFC's equity participation of $3.1 million in 1975 (see para 17). In support of the Government's social objectives, projects currently under preparation for lending in the next two to three fiscal years include proposals for developing a Municipal and Rural Development Bank which has primarily a rural clientele and a slum upgrading project. Also under preparation are a water supply project to expand and improve water distribution in several intermediate cities and small towns and a rainfed project to help small farmers increase their yields through improved inputs of seeds and fertilizer as well as through better cultivation practices. 20. The Bank was Executing Agent for a two-year UNDP Planning Assistance Project based in the National Planning Council which was completed in December 1975. It was also Executing Agent for a UNDP-financed study of the manufactur- ing industry and industrial estates in Jordan. The first phase, consisting of a study of the industrial sector, was completed in December 1975. The second phase, consisting of studies of specific industries and proposals for the establishment of industrial estates during the next Plan period - clm:ed in December 1976. The establishment of industrial zones and sup5ol"ini  services for light manufacturing would aim at regulating the concentration of economic activity in the Amman-Zarqa area which has strained the infrastruc- ture facilities and caused severe pollution. The Bank is at present assisting the Government in initiating a study for the promotion of export oriented industries. The Bank may also help the Government to formulate a plan for the rational use of scarce water resources. 21. At the end of 1978, the Bank Group's share in Jordan's external public debt was estimated at 7.5 percent, and its share in debt service was 0.9 percent. By 1980 the Bank Group's shares in debt outstanding and in debt service are expected to be about 7.0 percent and 0.5 percent respectively. PART III - THE EDUCATION SECTOR Background 22. Labor is a major resource in the Jordanian economy and it is by far the main earner of foreign exchange (about $0.5 billion in 1978). While labor emigration acted in the 1960's and early 1970's as a security valve siphoning out some of the unemployment affecting the economy, since 1973 the massive investment plans promoted by the Gulf States as a result of oil price increases, and the acceleration of domestic economic growth have drastically changed the picture. In a few years Jordan has moved to a situation of full employment and the continuing manpower outflow has turned into a potential threat to domestic development opportunities. Jordanians working abroad are currently estimated at 120,000-150,000 (about 37 percent of the labor force), largely made up of professionals and skilled workers attracted to the Gulf States, in particular, by salaries and wages three or four times higher than in Jordan. The government considers emigration to be economically beneficial and has been pursuing an open emigration policy. At the same time, priority is being given to rapid expansion of vocational/technical education aLnd training and encouraging increased female participation in the workforce to meet the gap in the availability of skilled workers created by emigration. Education Policy 23. The government's education development strategies are directed to- wards ensuring the availability of a well-educated work force with the skills required for a rapidly developing economy. Increasingly, while continuing to pursue vigorously a policy of generalizing basic schooling, greater stress is being placed on reorienting education and training towards meeting manpower training needs. 24. Progress in the overall development of the education system has been remarkable, especially over the past decade. Gross enrollments at the primary (grades 1-6), preparatory (grades 7-9) and secondary (grades 10-12) Levels now represent a high 97 percent, 76 percent and 44 percent of the relevalnt age groups. There are no significant disparities by region or by sex. Indeed, female enrollments, as a percentage of total enrollments (47 percent at the  - 8 - primary level, 43 percent and 39 percent at the preparatory and secondary levels respectively), are among the highest in the Middle East. Thus major strides have been made towards the goal of nine years of basic schooling, incorporating both the primary and preparatory levels, for all children. 25. The government has been less successful in meeting its goal in expanding vocational training. Despite a 300 percent increase over the past five years, enrollments in vocational/technical courses represent only 12 percent of total secondary enrollments, as against the government target of 30 percent by 1980. Attainment of this target by no later than 1987 is now the government's highest educational priority, towards which the following measures are being taken: (a) the introduction of prevocational studies for all students in grades 5-9 so as to acquaint them with some of the skills required for future employment; and (b) the further diversification of secondary education to serve the needs for technical manpower through an expanded provision of training complexes in urban areas and the concomitant development of the comprehensive school system, particularly in the less urbanized areas, with about 30-40 percent of students to be enrolled in vocational streams. To complement the development of the formal training system, in-plant apprenticeship and skill upgrading programs organized by the Vocational Training Corporation (VTC) attached to the Ministry of Labor will be expanded, with the objective of increasing the number of trainees from 490 in 1978 to 2,600 by 1982. 26. The thrust towards meeting technical manpower needs is being con- tinued at the post-secondary education level through the development of a newly established university at Yarmouk, with special emphasis on science, agriculture, engineering and medical education, and with an enrollment target of 20,000 by 1986. A major objective would be to reduce the large number of Jordanian youths going abroad to study. At the same time, the government proposes to develop a pilot community college, which would combine experi- mentally the training in one institution of required technicians and subject teachers. 27. Additionally, more effective action is planned to address the educa- tion and training needs of the estimated 30. percent of the population over 12 years of age classified as illiterate and to provide continuing education for literate adults. The MOE is encouraging adults and out-of-school youths to attend day and evening classes that cover in four years--recently reduced from six years--the content of the primary curriculum adapted to adult learning needs. Progress to date has been slow with only about 20,000 graduating from literacy classes over the past ten years from a target population estimated to have numbered 338,000 in 1976. A national plan of action, aimed at era- dicating illiteracy and developing continuing education programs for adults, is at present under preparation in the MOE. In the meantime, the necessary legislation is being enacted to ensure coordination between the MOE and the various other ministries concerned (Agriculture, Labor, Health, and Islamic Culture) in the provision of adult education. The comprehensive secondary schools and the proposed community college are expected to play a major role in the development of adult education and training programs and in providing such programs in the areas in which they are located.  -9- Issues and Problems 28. The rapid expansion of primary and preparatory schooling inevitably has brought with it some qualitative problems. In meeting demands for such schooling, the government has had recourse to a significant extent to rented accommodation and to underqualified teachers. About 37 percent of the class- rooms in public schools are rented, and almost all are in extremely poor condition. The government plans to replace all rented buildings on a phased basis, in accordance with the availability of the necessary finances, over a period of up to 20 years and is currently undertaking a school-location study, including a survey to determine the schools most urgently in need of replace- ment. Poor maintenance of buildings further hampers school operations. This problem is being addressed through the proposed use of mobile building main- tenance units, with particular emphasis on the maintenance of schools in remote areas, where the problem is most acute. 29. As a result of the initiatives taken by the government over the past five years, the output of trained teachers for grades 1-9 now roughly matches demand, though some shortfall exists due to emigration among newly graduating teachers. However, extensive in-service training is required and underway to upgrade the about 33 percent of teachers in grades 1-9 who are underqualified by government standards, i.e., who have not completed two years of post- secondary training. In addition, shortages, as yet not fully quantified, are -being experienced in the supply of certain subject teachers, particularly maths, science and English, while no provision as yet exists to supply the annual need for about 120 male teachers for the practical subjects introduced in the curricula of grades 5-9. The proposed pilot community college and a proposed new prevocational teacher training institute will address these needs. Finally, while the supply of teachers for secondary schools is ade- quate, there is an acute shortage of secondary industrial instructors. Only 25 trainees enrolled for the pedagogical training of such instructors at the Marka Polytechnic Institute in 1978. The government increased the intake to 140 in 1979 and plans to maintain this level of intake to match projected needs. To attract and retain qualified vocational/technical teachers, the government recently raised salaries and adopted various incentive measures, including granting a salary differential of 40 percent for vocational, subject teachers over other teachers. In addition, a new by-law has been pretpared to grant qualified teacher status and the appropriate incremental financial reward for those completing instructor training at the Institute. 30. While the expansion of vocational training to meet skilled manpower needs is the government's highest educational priority, the determination of such needs is made difficult by the absence of an adequate data base and manpower planning mechanism. Ways to strengthen the manpower analysis and projection capability of the National Planning Council (NPC) are being con- sidered with technical assistance provided under a UN program. In the mean- time, a preliminary estimate of manpower needs, based on the limited data available, indicates that further significant increases in the output: of technical manpower, over and above that currently planned, will be necessary to meet projected needs. The shortfall of skilled workers is likely to be particularly acute. Twelve proposed new training institutions, including one being constructed under the second education project and a further f-Lve (three  - 10 - comprehensive schools, one industrial secondary school and one training center) under the present project, would increase the output of industrial skilled workers from 700 in 1978 to 4,000 by 1986. This compares with esti- mated needs of about 10,800 annually, net of emigration, in the 1980s. The shortfall would be met in part at the lower skilled level by the planned expansion of apprenticeship training but clearly further institutional expan- sion will also be necessary. A shortage also exists in the supply of indus- trial and commercial technicians, with the output estimated to reach 1,500 annually by 1986, including about 200 through the proposed project, as against estimated annual needs of 2,700. The shortfall is expected to be met through the possible establishment of a new polytechnic in the south, to complement the two in the central and northern regions financed under the first and second IDA assisted education projects, combined with the provision of addi- tional community colleges. While a short-fall is also indicated in the output of science/engineering based university graduates in 1986, this situation would be corrected quickly if the development of Yarmouk University proceeds as planned. Management Capability 31. Despite its excellent achievements to date, the government is aware that, to develop and monitor the educational system more effectively, it will need to have an improved management information system, as well as a research and evaluation capability. To this effect the proposed project will include -the establishment of a computerized information system, and an evaluation and research unit to provide senior management with effective tools for monitoring and planning purposes. Public Finance 32. Between 1975 and 1978, the recurrent cost of public education increased by about 10 percent per year in real terms, 2 percent higher than the real increase in total government recurrent expenditure. Capital expendi- ture on the other hand stagnated due to MOE's reliance on renting school buildings rather than constructing new facilities. As a result, the percentage of total public expenditures devoted to education varied in the range 8.5-9.0 percent, while educational expenditures as a percentage of GNP decreased from 5.1 percent to 4.5 percent. During the same period, the recurrent expenditures for vocational/technical education increased by 29 percent per year in real terms, reflecting the high priority given to skilled manpower training. This trend is expected to continue in the next plan period (1981-85). Based on the projected development of the education system, and the proposed progressive replacement of rented buildings, total expenditures on education are expected to reach JD 51.5 million (in 1978 prices) in 1985. This would represent about 4.5 percent of projected GNP and 9-9.5 percent of the government budget. The government can be expected to sustain this level of expenditure in view of the high priority attached to education.  - 11 - Bank Strategy and Lending for Education 33. Bank Group lending to education (two credits) has been consistent with the government's objectives and underlined the twin themes of manpower development and the qualitative improvement of education. The first credit ($5.4 million in 1972) introduced diversified secondary education, post- secondary technician training, new forms of trade training, technical teacher training, agricultural teacher training, and expanded teacher training for grades 1-9. Technical assistance was provided for institutional support, curricula development and teacher training. The Project Performance Audit Report (No. 2494) noted the catalytic effect of the project in many areas, including educational planning, and concluded that the project was justified and worthwhile. The lessons learned from the project have been or are being adopted, including improved procurement procedures, better coordination of technical assistance, more effective scheduling of required inputs and timing of implementation, and more extended training in management and administration. 34. The second credit ($6.0 million in 1975) continued the emplhasis on meeting manpower needs through the financing of a polytechnic, three compre- hensive secondary schools, extensions (workshops and laboratories) to 16 preparatory and secondary schools, a trade training complex, a hotel training school, and appropriate technical assistance. It also included the financing of a rural development center, which would support rural development projects in the Jordan Valley. Implementation of this project is proceeding satis- factorily, and is expected to be completed as scheduled. 35. The proposed third project would further support the government's efforts to expand vocational training, and would provide much needed skilled workers, technicians and teachers for particular subject specializations. An important feature would be the impetus provided in developing a plan of action to meet non-formal education and training needs and the support in strengthen- ing management capability in the MOE. In view of the continuing critical shortage of skilled manpower, the next project is expected to provide further support in this area and in expanding non-formal education and training. IV. THE PROJECT Project History 36. The project was prepared by the government following a Bank Project Identification Mission in June 1978 and a Bank Preparation Assistance Mission in October 1978. The project was appraised in February/March 1979. Negotia- tions were held in Washington, D.C. on November 5-12, 1979 with a Jordanian delegation led by Dr. A. Arabiat, Director of the Project Unit in MOE. A staff appraisal report entitled "Third Education Project, Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan" (No. 2632-JO), dated November 15, 1979 is being distributed separately to the Executive Directors. The main features of the loan and project are listed in the Loan and Project Summary and in Annex III.  - 12 - Project Objectives 37. The project is designed to assist the government in training skilled manpower urgently required for implementing the economic development plan, improving the quality of education, and enhancing the MOE management capabilities. For these purposes, the project would help the government in: (a) expanding post-secondary technician and secondary level vocational training; (b) meeting deficiencies in the supply of teachers; (c) improving the quality of secondary agricultural education; (d) expanding adult education and training; (e) upgrading school building maintenance; and (f) establishing a computerized management information system in the MOE and technical assist- ance to strengthen planning, management, research, and evaluation in the MOE. Project Description and Content 38. In support of the above objectives, the project would consist of: (a) construction/extension of and equipment and furniture for the Saahab training complex, five comprehensive secondary schools (two extensions); the Shaubak agricultural secondary school and prevocational teacher training institute (extension), the Zarqa community college, and one computerized management information system; (b) equipment for eight mobile building main- tenance units; and (c) technical assistance related to the above, and for strengthening the MOE's capability in research, evaluation, and project implementation. The project institutions would provide about 5,400 new training places (about 3,100 for replacement) and would upgrade about 1,300 existing places. 39. Saahab Training Complex. The complex would be established at the Saahab Industrial Estate which is being developed near Amman and would train craft/skilled workers for which there is an acute shortage. The complex would consist of two units: an industrial secondary school offering full- time courses of three years' duration (grades 10-12) to 680 students (esti- mated annual output, 200) and a trade training center offering two-year courses (grades 10-11) to 440 students (annual output, 200). The industrial school graduates would be eligible for entry into a polytechnic for technician training, while the trade training center's program would be terminal and its output is expected to be employed in manufacturing at the appropriate skill level. Part-time non-formal evening courses of varying durations for appren- ticeship training and skill upgrading would also be provided. Fields of specializations (e.g., electrical utilization, industrial electronics, auto mechanics, general plant mechanics, instrument mechanics, upholstery, etc.) reflect anticipated needs of the proposed manufacturing establishments in the industrial estate. The industrial school and trade training center curricula would devote nearly 47 percent and 67 percent of school periods to practical training. To introduce the new course specializations of instrument mechanics, watch repair and upholstery, 24 man-months of specialists' services would be included in the project. In addition, 141 man-months of fellowships abroad, including those related to the new specializations, would be provided for 15 instructors. The government has agreed that, for those specializations for which textbooks in Arabic are not available, instructors would be appointed not later than six months before the opening of the complex to enable them to prepare such textbooks (para. 4.05 of the Loan Agreement).  - 13 - 40. To operate the complex, a total of 12 general teachers and 12 tech- nical teachers with university degree qualifications, and 38 trade instructors with technical teacher institute diploma qualifications will be needed. An adequate supply of degree-level teachers is available. In view of the growing shortage of trade instructors, however, the government has agreed that to enhance the availability of trade instructors required for the complex and other project institutions: (a) further incentives as needed would lbe pro- vided to attract trainees into the instructor training programs of the Marka Polytechnic Institute; and (b) the passage of the new by-law granting quali- fied teacher status and appropriate incremental financial reward for those instructors successfully completing such training at the Institute would be confirmed by September 30, 1980 (para. 4.08 of the Loan Agreement). To analyze job placement and performance of graduates of the training complex and project comprehensive schools, the government will extend the existing tracer system to cover the graduates of these institutions and the results of the tracer studies will be sent to the Bank for five years following the first output from the institutions (para. 4.09 of the Loan Agreement). 41. Comprehensive Secondary Schools. Continuing the strategy initiated with the first two IDA education projects, this project would further assist the government's efforts to extend comprehensive education to the less urban- ized areas, with a view to directing secondary education in these areas more effectively towards social and economic development needs. The three new institutions (two for boys and one for girls) would be located in small towns, each replacing a number of small village secondary schools currently accom- modated in unsuitable rented facilities. Two existing general secondary schools (one each for boys and girls) would be converted into comprehensive schools. The schools' formal programs, extending over three years, would combine academic (literary and science) and vocational streams and would: (a) expose students in the academic streams to vocational subjects; and (b) provide skill training to those students who will be directed into vocational options (30-40 percent). The output from the male vocational streams will be of the same level of skills as the graduates from the Saahab Training Complex (para. 39). Practically-oriented science teaching would be emphasized. In addition to the two academic streams, the boys' schools would have an indus- trial stream with options in four trade vocations, while the girls' schools would have commercial and home economics streams with options in six vocations. Satisfactory outline curricula for the specializations offered have been prepared and are being finalized by Jordanian specialists. Students in the vocational streams would be required to take nearly half their class periods in practical work, while students in the academic streams would be required to take about 15 percent of their periods in one of the vocational options. 42. Total enrollments in formal programs in the project schools would be 4,100, of which 3,130 places would be provided under the project. Of the latter, 1,830 would be in boys' schools and 1,300 in girls' schools. The annual output of all five schools is estimated at 1,300, of which about 400 (30 percent) are expected to be vocationally trained and about 40 percent female. Experiences with the comprehensive schools under the first education project indicate that the prestige of these institutions should ensure the availability of an adequate supply of teachers for all subjects other than those of the industrial streams. For the latter, the government has provided  - 14 - an assurance that the required number of trained instructors (42) would be available (para. 40). As the provision of industrial streams in comprehensive secondary schools is new, the project would include 144 man-months of fellow- ships for the specialized training abroad of 16 vocational instructors. The project would also include 30 man-months of fellowships for 10 principals and assistant principals for study tours related to management and administration of similar types of institutions abroad. 43. The project institutions are expected to play a major role in providing opportunities for non-formal education and training for the adult population in their areas. The government has agreed that, no later than six months before the opening of the schools, the adult education programs to be implemented would be prepared and reviewed with the Bank and full-time quali- fied staff for implementation of such programs would be designated promptly thereafter (para. 4.07 of the Loan Agreement). 44. Agricultural Secondary School - Extension (Shaubak). The proposed extension to the existing agricultural school at Shaubak would provide addi- tional accommodation and refurbishing of existing accommodation together with equipment to improve the food processing and poultry broiler production units of the school farm. The school has a total enrollment of 240 in a three-year program (grades 10-12) and provides practically-oriented training to produce about 70 skilled agricultural workers per year. The graduates find ready employment in the private sector and, to a lesser extent, in the Ministry of Agriculture. As the output from this school and the other existing agri- cultural school is sufficient to meet the country's manpower needs at this level, the proposed extension would not increase the capacity of this program but would improve the range of specializations and the quality of training in food processing and poultry production which are rapidly developing subsectors of Jordanian agriculture. About 39 man-months of fellowships would be pro- vided to train food technology, poultry and horticulture (green housing) teachers (3) abroad. Satisfactory outline curricula have been prepared for the new specializations and are being finalized. 45. Prevocational Teacher Training Institute - Extension (Shaubak). This component would help establish the country's first and only institution to train subject teachers required for the implementation of the new pre- vocational program in grades 5-9 (para. 25). This post-secondary institute (grades 13-14) would be established on the same campus as Shaubak Agricultural Secondary School (para. 44), with which it will share communal and laboratory facilities. The project would provide for additional accommodation, including boarding and staff housing in view of the location of the institute in a rural area, to convert the existing agricultural teacher training into prevocational teacher training, and with the capacity increased from 60 at present to 256. The conversion is a consequence of the merging of the separate agricultural streams for grades 7-9, for which the teachers were previously trained, into the new prevocational curriculum. The institute would graduate about 120 male teachers per year needed for gradual implementation of the new prevocational program, while female teachers required will be trained at the Teacher Train- ing Institute for Women in Amman. The training program which has already been prepared is about equally divided between theory and practice and includes: energy and environment; agricultural, commercial, industrial, and house  - 15 - maintenance and repair activities; nutrition; and public health. The addi- tional 20 teachers and 12 assistant instructors required are expected to be recruited mainly from the proposed expanded program of technical teacher training at Marka Polytechnic Institute. Under the project, the director of the project institute and 6 instructors would be trained abroad (about 52 man-months of fellowships) to equip them for the initial development of this new institute. 46. Community College. The project would help finance construction, equipment, furniture, and technical assistance for the establishment of a pilot community college in Zarqa (population 400,000). Programs to be offered would remain flexible and responsive to the needs of the community in the immediate area. They would include: (a) technician training in secretarial and office management, accounting, librarianship, laboratory technicianship, nutrition, catering and institutional management, and clothing design and tailoring; (b) teacher training for subjects for which a shortage has been identified, most especially in English language, mathematics, science and home economics, and for primary school teachers with particular reference to train- ing of teachers for one or two room primary schools in rural areas; and (c) continuing education for adults, the programs to be determined by the needs of the adult community in the Zarqa area. The formal programs would be of two years' duration (grades 13-14) while non-formal programs would be of varying duration. In addition to addressing community needs, which is basic to the community college concept, the college would have as a further objective the achievement of cost economies through the availability of common courses and the sharing of accommodations and trainers among the technician antd teacher trainees. Furthermore, the interaction among the various types of trainees would enrich the training experience of all. Experience gained under this component would provide a useful basis for the possible development of a community college system in Jordan. 47. Total enrollment would be about 1,000, of whom 600 are expected to be women. About 150 adults are expected to enroll initially in continuing education courses at any given course period. Expected annual output is 270 special subject teachers, 30 primary school teachers and 160 techrlical diploma holders. Employment prospects for these graduates are excellent. Given the community college location, no difficulty is anticipated in recruiting the required teaching staff (about 50 full-time teachers, including 13 vocational/ technical subject teachers). The full-time equivalent of 6 teachers needed for the continuing education courses would be recruited mainly from local commercial and industrial firms and secondary schools in the Zarqa area. The project would include technical assistance for an expert in communiity college administration to assist the director of the college for 12 months, and 57 man-months of training abroad for four administrators and five selected technical teachers, preparing them to upgrade others in their fields. In view of the community orientation of the college and the emphasis being placed on developing appropriate continuing education for adults, the government has agreed that six months before the opening of the community college: (a) an Advisory Committee including prominent Zarqa citizens and a Department of Continuing Education with a full-time head would be established; (b) detailed continuing education programs would be prepared and reviewed with the Bank;  - 16 - and (c) information on a system proposed by the government to evaluate the effectiveness of the community college would be forwarded to the Bank for review and comments (para. 4.04 of the Loan Agreement). 48. Mobile Building Maintenance Units. To improve the maintenance of school buildings, which is currently inadequate particularly in rural areas, the project would provide eight mobile building maintenance units each equipped with carpentry, plumbing and electrical tools, a welding machine, a small lathe, and a generator. The mobile units would be attached to the District Education Offices (DEO) and would be staffed with experienced full- time maintenance crews. Necessary supplies would be stored at the DEO and arrangements would be made in each DEO to allow the maintenance crews to use workshops as needed in existing trade training and vocational centers. 49. Institution Building. This component would be designed to strengthen the MOE itself, with the focus on its capacity to plan the direction in which its educational program should move in the future. This component comprises four elements: (a) Management Information System (MIS). This item would assist MOE in converting the present manual record keeping opera- tions into a computerized system and thus provide senior management with effective tools for monitoring and planning purposes. The system would also provide computing services for educational research, as well as manpower analysis and projections to be used by NPC. The proposed project would help finance computer hardware and equipment, and software development (about 15 man-years of experts' services to design and develop six subsystems and local training for staff). The government has agreed that the proposed composition of MIS staff would be submitted to the Bank for review and the required staff would be appointed not later than December 31, 1980 (para. 4.06 of the Loan Agreement). (b) Evaluation. Technical assistance would be provided in setting up the evaluation mechanism, defining its task, and starting its operation. For this, an expert in educational evaluation would work in the MOE for six months and two staff members would study evaluation methods abroad for six months each. (c) Educational Research. A recently established Research Section has yet to develop a research capability. A broad range of research topics has been identified, including testing and measurement in education, science teaching methodologies, effective teaching of literacy and continuing education programs, educational supervision, use of audio-visual aids, education for Bedouins, etc. Three research experts for an average of six months each would be provided under the project to assist the Section in developing a research capability mainly by establishing research methodologies and initiating research in a selected number of topics.  - 17 - (d) Project Management Support. This item would provide 24 man-months of fellowships abroad to assist the Project Implementation Unit in improving its project implementation and management capabilities. It would be directed towards giving six MOE staff members insights into the management of education projects elsewhere, and in assessing and applying lessons learned during implementation. 50. Technical Assistance. In view of the innovative nature of some of the project institutions and the development of new specializations and computerized MIS for which local expertise is not currently available, a substantial technical assistance component has been included. In suimmary, about 20 man-years of foreign experts' services would be provided to assist in curriculum development, administration for the project institutions and institutional support for the Ministry of Education including MIS. In addi- tion, about 42 man-years of fellowships would be provided for studies abroad to 68 selected staff of the project institutions and the Ministry of Education. Project Cost and Financing 51. Total project cost is estimated at about $40.1 million, of which $20.3 million in foreign exchange. Project cost estimates exclude any iden- tifiable import duty and taxes. Physical contingencies have been calculated at 10 percent for civil works, furniture and equipment and professional services, and 5 percent for technical assistance. Prices are expected to increase, during the project implementation period by weighted yearly rates of about 8 percent for civil works and professional services, 8.5 percent for furniture, 8.7 percent for equipment, and 7 percent for technical assistance. Based upon experience in the first two projects, these estimates assume that about three-fourths of civil works contracts and about four-fifths of furni- ture contracts will be awarded to local firms and that all equipment will be directly imported. 52. The proposed Bank loan of $19.0 million would cover about 94 percent of foreign costs and 47 percent of the total cost of the project. The balance of the foreign exchange cost ($1.3 million for technical assistance), is expected to be met by the UNDP. The local costs amounting to about $19.8 million, or in total 49 percent of project costs, would be financed by the government ($19.6 million) and UNDP ($0.2 million). In line with recent experience, technical assistance cost estimates are based upon: (a) average man-month costs of about $6,900 for experts (consisting of fees and per diem allowances) and about $1,650 for fellowships, and (b) average travel costs to and from home office or study base abroad of about $1,200 per individual. Recurrent Costs of Project 53. When fully operational in 1984/85, the project institutions are estimated to require about JD 0.8 million annually in recurrent costs, or about 0.2 percent of projected public recurrent expenditure for education at that time.  - 18 - Iplementation 54. The Project Unit, a Directorate of MOE established for the implemen- tation of the first two IDA education projects and directly responsible to the Minister, would also be responsible for the implementation of this project. The Project Unit has performed effectively and a deputy project director, whose duties would include responsibility for the technical assistance pro- grams under the projects, and an additional architect/engineer have recently been appointed. Substantial progress has already been made toward preparation of preliminary drawings, outline specifications and site plans by consultant architects/engineers appointed for the project. Satisfactory sites for all project institutions have been selected. 55. Preparation of furniture and equipment lists with quantities and estimated costs is underway. The first detailed lists together with technical specifications and related bid documents are expected to be completed by loan signing, with the remaining lists to be completed progressively over the following 12 months. 56. The construction, furnishing and equipping of all schools and the technical assistance component are expected to be completed by June 1983. The Closing Date would be December 31, 1983. Procurement and Disbursement 57. Civil works contracts (amounting to about $24.3 million including contingencies) and contracts for furniture and equipment in excess of $100,000 would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding (ICB). Equipment and furniture items (amounting to $10.3 million including contingen- cies) would be grouped to the extent possible in large packages to permit bulk procurement. Small items or groups of items estimated to cost less than $100,000, or items of a specialized nature for which ICB would not be prac- tical, would be procured under normal government procedures which are satis- factory to the Bank. The total value of these items would not exceed $1.0 million equivalent. In ICB comparisons, local manufacturers of furniture and equipment would be allowed a margin of preference equal to the existing rate of customs duties applicable to competing imports or 15 percent of CIF price, whichever is lower. 58. The proposed loan would be disbursed against: 35 percent of civil works ($8.6 million); 100 percent for directly imported and for the ex-factory cost of locally manufactured furniture and equipment and 85 percent for fully imported furniture and equipment procured locally ($8.9 million); and 100 percent of foreign expenditures for expatriate consultants and 80 percent of local expenditures for local consultants for software development of the MIS component ($1.5 million). Benefits and Risks 59. Benefits. The proposed project would make a modest but significant contribution towards meeting manpower needs for skilled workers, technicians  - 19 - and teachers. The provision included for the training of prevu ational subject teachers would provide necessary support for the reorientation of the school system. At the same time, by expanding the comprehensive secondary school system in the less urbanized areas, the project would further reinforce the government's efforts to divert a higher proportion of secondary school students into vocational programs, and would at the same time enhance the employment prospects of the secondary school graduates. The theme of continu- ing education would be developed through the non-formal education and training programs to be provided at the community college and comprehensive sc]hools. In addition the community college would provide for the training of nieeded technicians and teachers in one institution with a view to achieving economy in training costs and to provide an opportunity for professional enrichment through interaction among the various types of trainees. The experience gained would provide a valuable basis for determining the appropriateness of a community college system for Jordan. The additional provision under the project for the training of agricultural technicians would improve the quality and expand the training of such technicians to include those required for the poultry industries and in food processing. Finally, the project would signif- icantly enhance the MOE's capabilities in planning, research, evaluation and management, and its ability to maintain school facilities. 60. Risks. No undue risks or delays in implementation are expected. The government is committed to successful project implementation as evidenced by satisfactory project preparation and implementation of the two previous projects. Furthermore, the Project Unit staff is experienced. One possible problem, however, may be the difficulty in rectuiting an adequate number of qualified trade instructors in certain fields because of the attraction of higher salaries abroad and in the Jordanian private sector. The various salary incentives recently adopted and further incentives being considered should help mitigate this problem. The granting of qualified teacher status and financial incentives to graduates of the trade instructor courses, to which the government has agreed, would be another important step in assur- ing instructors supply. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 61. The draft Loan Agreement between the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and the Bank and the draft Report of the Committee provided for in Ariticle III, Section 4(iii) of the Articles of Agreement of the Bank are being distri- buted to the Executive Directors separately. Special conditions of the project are listed in Section III of Annex III. 62. I am satisfied that the proposed loan would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Bank.  - 20 - PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 63. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed loan. Robert S. McNamara President Attachments Ncvember 26, D9 19 Washingtor, D C.  - 21 - ANX I Page 1 of 5 JORDAN - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET REFERENCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED AyJAGS LAND AREA (THOUSAND SQ. KM.) JORDOAN - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) TOTAL 97.7 SAME SAME NEXT HIlGHER AGRICULTURAL 14.7 MOST RECENT GEOGRAPHIC INCOME INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b REGION /c GROUP /d GROUP /e GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 190.0 340.0 710.0 1367.7 926.1 1748.5 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (RILOCRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALErNT) 197.0 306.0 527.0 838.1 730 7 1646.7 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, MID-YEAR (MILLIONS) 1.7 2.3 2.9 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 42.7 49.6 52.9 49.0 49.0 51.2 POPULATION PROJECYIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 6.0 STATIONARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) 12.0 YEAR STATIONARY POPULATION IS REACHED 2090 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. KM. 17.0 24.0 30.0 19.9 44.6 28.2 PER SQ. KM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 133.0 165.0 197.0 99.0 140.7 100.5 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 44.0 45.8 47.0 45.6 41.3 35.4 15-64 YRS. 52.0 51.1 50.0 51.4 55.3 56.3 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 4.0 3.1 3.0 2.8 3.5 5.1 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.0 2.4 1.7 URBAN 5.0/p 4.5 4.5 5.2 4.5 3.0 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 47.0 48.0 47.0 43.7 31.1 27.5 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THoUSAND) 20.0 16.0 13.0 13.5 9.2 9.1 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.2 1.8 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) .. .. .. USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. .. .. 34.7 FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) .. 79.0/f 63.0/f 90.8 104.4 102.0 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 90.0 92.0 90.0 99.0 105.0 120.8 PROTEINS (GRANS PER DAY) 62.0 60.0 65.0 63.6 64.4 80.9 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 16.0 18.0/h .. 16.0 23.5 31.3 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 30.0 22.0 16.0 15.9 8.6 5.1 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 47.0 52.0 56.0 53.8 60.2 65.6 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) .. 86.0 .. .. 46.7 45.5 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. 56.0 56.4 60.8 69.4 URBAN .. .. 60.0 83.4 75.7 85.1 RURAL .. .. 50.0 34.3 40.0 43.0 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. .. 59.1 46.0 70.1 URBAN .. .. .. 78.2 46.0 88.3 RURAL .. .. .. 26.4 22.5 33.2 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 5900.0 2680.0 2250.0 3677.0 2262.4 1343.2 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 1650.0 1050.0 930.0 1730.6 1195.4 765.0 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 500.0 960.0 950.0 577.0 453.4 197.6 URBAN .. 740.0 .. .. 253.1 260.2 RURAL .. 5750.0 *- .. 2732.4 1055.0 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. 36.5 39.6 21.8 22.1 17.3 HOUSING 1 AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL 5.3 6.1 .. 5.8 5.3 4.7 URBAN 5.5 .. .. 5.5 5.2 4.4 RURAL 5.1 .. .. 6.0 5.4 5.1 AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL .. .. .. .. 1.9 1.1 URBAN .. .. .. .. 1.6 1.2 RURAL .. .. .. .. 2.5 1.2 ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL 17.0 .. .. 45.1 50.0 66.0 URBAN 39.2 67.9 71.7 85.1 RURtAL 1.0 . _ 17.3  - 2 2 - ANNE:X I Page 2 of 5 JORDAN - SOCtAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET JORDAN REFERENCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED ALERAGES - MOST RECENT EST1MATE) - SAME SAME NEXT HIGhER MOST RECENT GEOGRAPHIC INCOME INCOME 1960 lb 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b REGION /c GROUP /d GROUP /e EDUCATION ADJUiSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 77.0 73.0/f 84.0/f 85.0 102.5 101.7 MALE 94.0 80.0/f 88.0/f 103.7 108.6 110.0 FEMALE 59.0 66.0/f 79.0/f 66.0 97.1 92.8 SECONDARY: TOTAL 25.0 33.0/f 49.0/f 27.6 33.5 51.2 MALF 36.0 41.0/f 56.01? 39.2 38.4 56.4 FEMALE 13.0 24.0/f 42.0/f 20.8 30.7 43.7 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (Z OF SECONDARY) 3.0 3.0/f 4.0/f 4.3 11.5 18.3 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRiMARY 34.0 39.0/f 36.0/f 32.6 35.8 27.1 SECONDARY 21.0 23.0/f 21.0/f 23.4 22.9 25.3 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 32.0 .. 59.0 41.4 64.0 86.1 CONSIIMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 4.0 7.0 14.9 16.7 13.5 53.4 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 38.0 160.0 196.0 147.9 122.7 225.9 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION *- 20.0 32.0 36.0 38.3 102.6 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 18.0 24.0 18.0 17.9 40.0 78.5 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA 3.0 0.9 .. 2.9 3.7 3.6 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 390.0/i 350.0/f 418.0/f FEMALE (PERCENT) 5.3 5.5/f 6.1/f 8.6 25.0 24.5 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 43.9 33.8 28.0 43.0 43.5 28.9 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 26.3 32.R 39.0 23.7 21.5 30.6 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 25.5 24.8 24.2 26.7 33.5 33.8 MALE 46.7 45.6 44.4 46.4 48.0 51.3 FEMALE 2.7 2.9 3.0 5.1 16.8 16.3 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 2.3 2.4/f 2.6/f 1.8 1.4 1.3 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. .. 24.6/f, 21.4 20.8 HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. .. 56.0/f 48.6 52.1 57.6 LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HLUSEHOLDS .. .. 6. 3 5. 3 3.9 3. 4 LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS - .. 17.0/f.j 15.0 12.6 11.0 POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 230.0 201.3 270.0 RURAL .. .. 100.0 134.2 183.3 ESTItIATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 206.0 288.6 282.5 550.0 RURAL .. .. 135.0 170.0 248.9 403.4 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. 17.5 22.9 20.5 RURAL .. .. 22.5 31.2 35.3 Not available Not applicable. NOTES /a The adjusted group averages for each indicator are population-weighted geometric means, excluding the extreme values of the indicator and the most populated country in each group. Coverge of contries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /b Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961i for 1970 bet.een 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1974 and 1977. /c NorLh Africa & Middle East; /d Intermediate Middle Income (S551-1135 per capita, 1976); /e Upper Mtld,!le Income (SI!36-2500 per capita. 1976); if East hank only; /_1 1952-61; /h 1964'-