Burundi - Second Highway Project

FLE COPY Dtof The World Bank FOR OMCIAL USE ONLY RePt No. P-2229-BU REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATTON TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF BURUNDI FOR A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT February 15, 1978 I This docmt hs a restrited disbi.. ad may be eod by recipients mly in the perfonmne of their edkl duties. ls contens ay nst otrwise be disclwe witou World Dank anordztion.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Calendar 1977 Unit = Burundi Franc (FBu) US$1 = FBu 90 FBu 100 - US$1.11 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 Units Metric  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY BURUNDI SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT Credit and Project Summary Borrower: Republic of Burundi Amount: US$14.0 million equivalent Terms: Standard Project Description: (a) Objectives: To assist the Government in financing the construction of a major road, road improvement and betterment works, and the continuation of the road maintenance program started under the Highway Maintenance Project, 1974 (Credit 467-BU). (b) Maior Components: (i) Construction of the Bujumbura-Cibitoke-Rugombo road (65 km) to two-lane bitumi- nous standards; (ii) Improvement of the classified road network by re- placement of bridges in poor state of repair, stabilization of steeply graded road sections and road improvement; (iii) Technical assistance and consultants' services; (iv) Procurement of road maintenance equipment; and (v) Improvement of the Ministry of Public Works Laboratory; (c) Benefits: Reduced internal transport costs and assuring of all season access to agricultural areas and markets, particularly Bujumbura. Farmers would be the principal beneficiaries. (d) Risks: Insufficient budgetary allocations by the Govern- ment for recurrent maintenance expenditures. Th dssemi a mukstd 1rudon&ts my be mud by _eelpls only In the peodarm of tei oficlaW dutbL Its contets my o otherwise be dbceoasd without World Dank authoiation.  2- Estimated Costs: Local Foreign Total % Foreign Main road construction 4.0 7.4 11.4 65 Road improvement 1.4 2.5 3.9 64 Technical assistance and consulting services 0.8 2.9 3.7 78 Maintenance equipment 0.1 1.4 1.5 90 Improvement Public Works Laboratory 0.1 0.2 0.3 77 Subtotal 6.4 14.4 20.8 Contingencies: Physical 0.7 1.4 2.1 Price 1.0 2.6 3.6 Subtotal 1.7 4.0 5.7 TOTAL 8.1 18.4 26.5 Total (net of taxes) 5.6 18.4 24.0 77 % of Financing Plan: 1/ Local Foreign Total Total Cost Government 2.2 - 2.2 9 Federal Republic of Germany - 0.8 0.8 3 BADEA 1.6 4.5 6.1 26 UNDP 0.1 0.8 0.9 4 IDA 1.5 12.3 14.0 58 5.6 i8.4 24.0 100 1/ Exclusive of US$2.5 million in Government taxes.  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF BURUNDI FOR A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed development credit to the Republic of Burundi for the equivalent of US$14.0 million to help finance a Second Highway Project. The Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA) will participate in the financing of the project with US$6.1 million. The Federal Republic of Germany and the UNDP will provide a grant of about US$800,000 and US$900,000 equivalent, respectively. PART I - THE ECONOMY 2. The last economic report on Burundi (504a-BU) was distributed to the Executive Directors on January 14, 1975. This was followed by an economic memorandum (855a-BU) distributed on October 24, 1975. An economic mission visited Burundi in June-July 1977 and is preparing an updating memorandum which is expected to be circulated to the Executive Directors by April 1978. Updated country data are provided in Annex I. 3. On November 1, 1976, the Army dismissed the regime that had been in power since 1966 and suspended the Constitution. The new Government has stated that it will pursue policies of sound economic management and national unity in respect of ethnic and regional differences and emphasize rural devel- opment. Project implementation and the preparation of new projects are being accelerated. 4. Burundi is one of the 25 least developed countries as defined by the United Nations. It has a per capita income estimated at US$120 in 1976. Over the past five years GDP has grown by no more than 2 percent annually in real terms. Of a population of 3.8 million, only 121,000 are in wage employ- ment; the remainder depends mainly on subsistence agriculture. The agricul- tural labor force is largely untrained, and the level of enrollment in formal education is one of the lowest in Africa. 5. The economy is dominated by the agricultural sector. Food crops account for about half of GDP; other crops, of which coffee remains by far the most important, account for a further 4 percent. In the 1974/75 coffee season, production reached a record of about 28,000 tons, 31 percent higher than the preceding year. The large harvest combined with a higher producer price resulted in a 62 percent increase in farmer incomes derived from coffee with consequent multiplier effects in both industry and services. Production  -2- in 1975/76 fell sharply to about 17,000 tons adversely affecting rural in- comes, but in 1976/77 increased to 21,000 tons yielding about US$50.0 mil- lion of export revenues as a result of the markedly higher coffee prices in the world market following the frost damage to Brazil's coffee trees. Farmers' income improved when the Government adjusted the producer price from BuF 39 per kg in 1975 to BuF 65 per kg in 1976. In view of expected higher world market prices for this commodity for the 1977/78 season, the Government has recently raised producer prices again to BuF 112 per kg. As the volume of coffee production during the present season could attain 20,000 tons, small farmers, for whom coffee constitutes the main cash crop, could substantially increase their inrco"e from this commodity. 6. Burundi's coffee production has become increasingly important for its foreign exchange earnings; the share of coffee in total exports rose from 79 percent in 1965 to 89 percent in 1976. The higher coffee prices have greatly strengthened Burundi's balance of payments. By the end of March 1977, net international reserves stood at a level equivalent to about nine months of merchandise imports. Rising import prices, combined with increased internal demand, caused a record 16 percent jump in the cost of living index for low income urban families during 1975. During 1976, price increases have been moderate, averaging about 7 percent. However, the impact on domestic demand of significantly higher export revenues expected in 1977/78 could exert inflationary pressures unless it is counteracted by an increase in imports. The Government intends to follow a liberal though selective import policy in order to prevent an upsurge in prices- 7. The level of investment has remained consistently low, averaging less than 10 percent of GDP between 1972 and 1976. Domestic savings have amounted to only 4 percent of GDP over the same period, approximately equal to net capital inflows. Close to half of total gross capital formation was financed by external aid. 8. Due to higher coffee prices, government revenues in 1976 were 60 percent above the level attained in 1975, while current expenditures grew by only 31 percent. Although Government investment rose considerably in 1976, budgetary savings financed about 54 percent of the latter compared to a low 7 percent the year before. 9. Burundi faces a formidable set of disadvantages, including depen- dence on coffee as the single export for foreign exchange, long and inef- ficient transport links for external trade, rudimentary infrastructure, and a large untrained labor force. In the past, civil strife disrupted development and diverted resources. The lack of a coherent development strategy was an obstacle in overcoming these deficiencies. In the past year some encouraging measures have been taken to address these problems. A Ministry of Planning has been established; improvements are being made in financial administration; and a number of agricultural projects are under preparation. The Ministry of Planning, whose staff is being strengthened with IDA assistance, has embarked on the preparation of a comprehensive development plan and is initiating and monitoring new projects and coordinating external aid.  -3- 10. The short term prospects for the economy are favorable, as coffee prices are expected to remain at substantially higher levels than before 1976. However, coffee prices are expected to decline again and in the medium term the balance of payments is likely to become a serious constraint to the Govern- ment's intention of significantly increasing investment expenditures. If the Government continues to focus on development and strengthen its administration, it may achieve steady, albeit slow, improvement in per capita incomes. If mining of Burundi's nickel deposits proves feasible the prospects over the next ten years would be much better. However, although such a development appears technically possible, the commercial viability of exploiting these deposits has yet to be established. Regional development in Central Africa will also be important to Burundi's economy. On September 20, 1976, Burundi, Rwanda and Zaire signed a convention establishing the "Economic Community of the Countries of the Great Lakes." The Community, which has its seat in Gisenyi, Rwanda, aims inter alia at stimulating and intensifying intra regional trade and cooperation in a wide range of activities. Preparation of a regional power project and a cement factory are underway and discussions are being held to facilitate the circulation of persons and goods within the Community. 11. Disbursements of official loans and grants have averaged US$16.7 million p.a. during 1974-75, the main contributions coming from Belgium, the UN agencies, IDA and the European Development Fund. Technical assis- tance has accounted for about half this aid. In the 1972-76 period, total net foreign capital inflows amounted to about US$80 million, of which US$66 million was in grants. On December 31, 1976, Burundi's external medium and long-term debt amounted to about US$23.7 million excluding undisbursed amounts. Of this the Bank and IDA together held 21 percent. Debt service averaged 4.4 percent of export earnings during 1972-76, with the Bank Group receiving 28 percent of all debt service payments. Due to the large grant element in external assistance, the Bank Group will probably continue to hold an important proportion of Burundi's debt as well as be the recipient of a large share of its debt service. Notwithstanding the low debt service ratio, however, the country, because of its poverty and instability of its export earnings, is not able to absorb any borrowing on commercial terms. External aid should be on grant or very concessional terms and continue to include a substantial share of local cost financing. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS 12. Since independence, nine credits have been made to Burundi, totaling US$34.1 million. The first credit for US$1.1 million was made in 1966 for the rehabilitation and extension of Bujumbura's water supply sys- tem. A credit of US$1.8 million was made in 1969 for the improvement of smallholder coffee production, followed by a second credit of US$5.2 million for the same purpose in November 1975. The latter project is cofinanced by the Kuwait Fund and Belgium in an aggregate amount of about US$1.8 million. A credit of US$5.0 million made in 1974 for a highway maintenance project was based on an engineering and highway maintenance study financed with a US$380,000 credit made in 1970. In 1976, a Technical Assistance credit  of US$1.5 million was made to help strengthen planning, statistical services and project preparation as well as a US$6.0 million credit for a Fisheries Development Project to increase fish production from Lake Tanganyika and prepare rural development projects. The Fisheries Project is _ofirnanced by a US$1.2 million loan from the Abu Dhabi Fund. A US$10.0 million credit was made in April, 1977 to help finance a primary education project and a US$3.4 million credit was made on September 30, 1977 to assist the National Economic Development Bank. Project execution is generally slow and disburse- ments have been limited, mainly because most projects started fairly recently. Annex II contains a summary statement of IDA credits as of December 31, 1977 and notes on the execution of ongoing projects, including the status of commitments and disbursements. 13. Execution of the Highway Maintenance Project has resulted in the reorganization of manual road maintenance which has substantially improved the quality of road maintenance throughout the country. The improvement of mechanized maintenance was delayed because of a procurement problem which was resolved in 1977. Since then, the Ministry of Public Works has accelerated the establishment of mechanized maintenance crews for periodic regravelling to halt a rapid deterioration of part of the road network. Training of road maintenance personnel has been satisfactory (see para. 21). The project is now well underway and expected to be completed on schedule by mid 1978. 14. In line with the Government's development strategy, the emphasis of the future lending program focusses on improving the road network and on increasing agricultural productivity to improve the nutrition and living standards of the impoverished rural population. With the assistance of our Resident Mission in Eastern Africa, the Government is preparing a rural development project which would include the establishment of several agricul- tural development centers in selected parts of the country. This project would be a first phase of a larger program to accelerate development of the rural areas. In addition, the lending program includes further assistance to help Burundi improve primary and technical education, planning and project preparation. We also intend to provide further assistance to industrial development by supporting the activities of the National Economic Development Bank. PART III - THE TRANSPORT SECTOR 15. Burundi's terrain is very rugged, making transport difficult. There are no railways, road construction is costly and the road system is poorly developed. The economy, however, is heavily dependent on roads for trans- portation in areas not served by Lake Tanganyika. Almost all exportimport traffic is by lake from Bujumbura to Kigoma in Tanzania, and then by rail to Dar es Salaam on the Indian Ocean. While there are other routes both to the Atlantic and the Indian Oceans, they are at present less reliable and more costly. An international airport at Bujumbura serves large jet aircraft, and there are six small airstrips scattered throughout the country.  - 5 - 16. Although the road network is extensive, totalling about 5,500 km, it consists mostly of low standard earth and gravel roads. Some 3,000 km of the road network, including the more important national roads of which about 200 km are presently paved, are under the responsibility of the Min- istry of Public Works. The remaining 2,500 km consist mainly of earth tracks which carry little traffic and are maintained by local authorities. 17. Traffic in Burundi is relatively light and concentrated on the main roads radiating from Bujumbura. During 1976, only 11 percent of Burundi's road network carried more than 50 vehicles a day. The vehicle fleet, now totalling about 7,000 vehicles mostly consisting of passenger cars and small trucks, is increasing at an annual rate of about 7 percent. During the rainy season, traffic on steeply graded road sections is hampered by heavy erosion and bridges in poor state of repair are often carried away by floods. 18. Burundi's principal outlet is the port of Dar es Salaam at a dis- tance of about 1400 km. Transport between Bujumbura and Dar es Salaam typically takes about two months although the distance could be covered in a much shorter time under better operating conditions. The capacity of the railway is adversely affected by poor management, inadequate maintenance and insufficient investment, and timely exportation of Burundi's coffee production is often hampered. An alternate outlet through Rwanda, Uganda and Kenya to Mombasa, although longer in distance, could become more attractive in the future as national highways in these areas are being improved. 19. The Ministry of Public Works is responsible for the design, con- struction and maintenance of national roads. Two departments within the Ministry deal with various aspects of road administration. The Department of Planning and Design supervises feasibility studies and detailed engi- neering and administers all construction contracts. The Roads Department executes minor construction works and is responsible for all aspects of road maintenance. 20. The Ministry of Public Works suffers from a shortage of techni- cally trained personnel. At present only the Minister and the Directors of the Department of Planning and Design, the Roads Department and the superintendent in charge of road maintenance have a formal education in engineering. Eleven technical assistants fill the more important positions in the Ministry and although the Government is making serious efforts to overcome the shortage of Burundi nationals, it will for the duration of the proposed project remain dependent on foreign technical staff to strengthen its highway administration. 21. During the execution of the Highway Maintenance Project (Credit 467-BU) satisfactory progress was made in training road maintenance per- sonnel. A special training program has been started under the project at the School of Public Works which turns out four to six Burundi techni- cians per year at the superintendent level. For those who qualify the training program is followed by more advanced studies abroad, generally financed by bilateral aid. Eventually, this program would also provide  - 6 - adequately trained Burundi instructors to carry on the training program. A problem has arisen in that students returning to Burundi from courses abroad are frequently absorbed by the private sector. To correct this situation the Government has decreed that students obtaining Government fellowships for training abroad are obliged to serve in the Government, including the Ministry of Public Works, for a period of ten years. 22. Minor construction works are carried out satisfactorily on force account by the Roads Department. Larger works are awarded to foreign con- tractors, one of which has established an office in Burundi. Thus far, lack of capable technicians, skilled workers and managers have hindered the devel- opment of a local construction industry, although there should be opportuni- ties for small gtoups of organized workers to undertake some construction work. 23. Under the present Highway Maintenance Project the consultants BERGER/BCEOM have assisted the Government in developing a 10-year road investment program (1978-87). The consultants have recommended that by 1987 about 600 km of earth tracks should be improved to low standard earth and gravel roads, in particular to improve access to rural areas. In addi- tion, the Government is planning to upgrade about 600 km of the road network to paved standard. This program includes the construction to paved standard of two partially competing north-south roads, namely the Bujumbura-Rutovu and the Gitega-Kihofi roads which end about 20 km from each other after passing through adjacent, agricultural areas. The Bujumbura-Rutovu road will be constructed with financial and technical assistance provided by the People's Republic of China whereas the Federal Republic of Germany has been requested to finance the Gitega-Kihofi road. 24. Simultaneous construction of the above roads is justified by the Government on the grounds that both roads would open up agriculturally rich areas with potential for sugar production and cattle raising. In addition, the Gitega-Kihofi road would provide access to the area where nickel resources have been found, the possible exploitation of which could induce a substantial incremental demand for road transport. On the other hand simultaneous con- struction would make heavy demands on the Government not only by utilizing scarce resources, but also by increasing recurrent road maintenance expendi- tures. The Government has discussed the proposed road construction plans with the Federal Republic of Germany and the Association. in addition, the Govern- ment has agreed to submit to the Association not later than April 30, 1978, a road investment program, exchange views with the Association thereon, give the Association an opportunity to comment on the proposed modifications thereto, and review its execution with the Association from time to time (Section 4.02 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). 25. A National Road Fund was established in 1969 to help finance capi- tal expenditures in the highway sector. The Fund's resources consist mainly of taxes on fuel. Additional revenues are derived from taxes on vehicles,  spare parts and registration fees. In 1976, total revenues collected from road users amounted to about US$2.5 million. However, only part of these revenues were used to meet the Government's annual highway expenditures. Budget provisions for road maintenance have been consistently below require- ments, despite several recommendations by the Association to the Government to increase the budget. On the basis of current estimates of road maintenance needs, the Government would have to set the 1978 budget at a minimum of US$2.5 million equivalent followed by annual adjustments for inflation, price variations and changes in traffic patterns (Section 4.05 of the draft Develop- ment Credit Agreement). 26. More than half of the entire road maintenance budget is being allocated to meet expenditures resulting from the maintenance of the town- ship roads of Bujumbura, occupying about 65 percent of the equipment at the disposai of the Ministry of Public Works. This practice is detrimental to the maintenance of the national road network. In order to strike a better balance between the maintenance of township and national roads, the Govern- ment is taking measures to establish, by June 30, 1978, two separate mainte- nance departments within the Ministry of Public Works: one responsible for township roads, and another for the national and secondary roads in Burundi (Section 4.05 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). PART IV - THE PROJECT 27. A report entitled "Appraisal of a Second Highway Project, Burundi" (No. 1656-BU) dated February 8, 1978 is being circulated separately. The project is in part the continuation of the highway maintenance program started under the first highway project (Credit 467-BU, 1974) which was prepared by consultants DIWI (Germany) in 1970-71 under an engineering credit (US$380,000, Credit S11-BU, 1970). The feasibility studies of the Bujumbura-Cibitoke- Rugombo road were prepared by consultants BCEOM-BERGER with financing from the first highway project, and detailed engineering was done by consultants DIWI with Government financing. Consultants BCEOM-BERGER also prepared the road improvement component of the project. The project was appraised in February 1977. Negotiations were held in Washington from December 5 to 9, 1977. The Burundi delegation was led by H. E. Isidore Nyaboya, Minister of Public Works, Equipment and Housing. Representatives from the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA) and the Kreditanstalt fur Wiederaufbau (KfW) attended part of the negociations. The Project 28. The project which is to be carried out in four years would consist of: (i) construction of the Bujumbura-Cibitoke-Rugombo road (65 km) to two-lane bituminous standards; (ii) improvement of Burundi's classified road network through:  (a) replacement of about 21 wooden bridges by concrete structures; (b) stabilization of selected steep road sections; and (c) improvement of 430 km of secondary roads to low standard gravel and improved earth surface. (iii) consultant services (i) to supervise construction of the Bujumbura-Cibitoke-Rugombo road, (ii) to prepare detailed engineering and supervise the construction of bridges and improvement of roads and (iii) to continue the technical assistance to the Ministry of Public Works to improve road maintenance operations; (iv) procurement of road maintenance equipment to replace existing equipment near the end of its economic life and to provide adequate capacity for mechanized road maintenance; and (v) improvement of the soils and materials laboratory of the Ministry of Public Works through technical assistance for training local laboratory personnel, provision of laboratory equipment and vehicles and reconstruction of the laboratory building. Detailed Features 29. Main Road Construction. The main road construction would consist of the Bujumbura-Cibitoke - Rugombo road. The present road which passes through the agriculturally rich Ruzizi Valley is in poor condition. In periods of heavy rainfall the road is nearly impassable as a result of flooding. To correct this situation major earthworks will be carried out, structures will be replaced and drainage facilities improved. The road will be constructed to two lane bituminous paved standards. Detailed engineering of the road from Bujumbura to Rugombo which was carried out by consultants financed from government funds, is satisfactory. Contractors for the construction of the road have already been qualified and tenders will be called shortly. 30. The Ruzizi Valley provides a major part of Bujumbura's food supplies and is also the main cotton producing area. Although cotton production has declined over the past years, the government intends to encourage produc- tion to serve a textile mill being built in Bujumbura with Chinese financing. The construction of the Bujumbura-Cibitoke-Rugombo road would greatly faci- litate the transport of agricultural products. Presently, the road carries up to 300 vehicles per day. 31. Improvement of Roads and Bridges. The road improvement program will consist of the upgrading of about 57 km of earth tracks to low standard gravel roads and about 370 km to improved earth roads. Improvement of earth roads would be limited to improving drainage facilities and the road surface.  - 9 - No major earthworks are envisaged. Design and specifications will be pre- pared with a view to encourage the use of manual labor where possible. About 21 wooden bridges on economically important roads which are in poor state of repair will be replaced by simple concrete structures. 32. The improvement of the road network would accelerate the marketing of foodcrops produced in the areas of influence of the roads and would facil- itate the implementation of the Government's storage and marketing program. This program is designed to promote the marketing of food supplies from sur- plus areas to areas with chronic shortages thereby reducing the substantial inter-regional price differences which occurred in the past as a result of lack of storage facilities and proper means of transport. The production of commercial crops such as coffee and tea which is entirely commercialized would benefit considerably from the road improvement. 33. Maintenance. During the project period the highway maintenance program, started in 1974, will be continued. Technical assistance will be employed to strengthen the road maintenance capacity of the Ministry of Public Works and for the training of Burundi nationals at the Public Works Laboratory to improve its capacity to control the quality of road construc- tion. The Federal Republic of Germany has agreed to continue its technical assistance program to the mechanical workshop in Bujumbura for the duration of the project. 34. Consultants Services. Consultants will be employed to supervise the construction of the Burundi-Cibitoke-Rugombo road. Consultants will also be hired to carry out detailed engineering for the improvement of roads and bridges and to supervise their construction. 35. Equipment. To keep the capacity of mechanized road maintenance units at an adequate level the project provides for the replacement of about US$1.5 million of maintenance equipment purchased in the earlier phases of the Highway Maintenance Project which will reach the end of its economic life in 1980. In addition, the project provides for equipment and vehicles for the public works laboratory, and rehabilitation of its quarters. Execution of the Project 36. The Ministry of Public Works will be responsible for the execution of all project components. The construction of the Bujumbura-Cibitoke-Rugombo road is expected to start in the second quarter of 1978 and should be com- pleted after 30 months. The road improvement program is estimated to last about 3-1/2 years starting mid-1978. The improvement of 370 km of earth tracks and the construction of 21 bridges will be carried out by force account. In the event of operational constraints, the Ministry of Public Works will subcontract the construction of some bridges to Burundi contrac- tors. The stabilization of steep grades and the upgrading of 57 km of earth tracks to low standard gravel roads will be carried out by contractors.  - 10 - Project Cost and Financing 37. The total cost of the project, net of taxes and duties amounting to aDout US$2.5 million equivalent, is estimated at US$24.0 million with a foreign exchange component of US$18.4 million (or 77 percent). The proposed IDA Credit of US$14.0 million would finance 58 percent of the total project cost net of taxes. 38. The Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA) is expected to provide US$6.1 million (or 25 percent of the total project cost net of taxes) on terms to be agreed to finance part of the main road construction and part of the cost of supervision. The Federal Republic of Germany has agreed to provide a grant of about US$800,000 for the continuation of the German technical assistance. The UNDP will contribute a grant of US$900,000 equiva- lent for technical assistance to help the Government execute the project. Total external financing will thus amount to IJS$21.8 million or about 91 percent of total project cost net of taxes. Because of Burundi's limited financial resources in the medium and long term such a high percentage of external cost sharing as well as the financing of US$3.4 million of local costs is justified (see paras. 10-11). The effectiveness of the BADEA loan agreement will be a condition of disbursement for expenditures for the main road construction (para. 4 of Schedule 1 to the draft Development Credit Agreement). The detailed financing plan for all project costs (net of taxes) is as follows: Local Foreign Total _ (US$ Million)----- Government 2.2 - 2.2 9 Federal Republic of Germany - 0.8 0.8 3 BADEA 1.6 4.5 6.1 26 UNDP 0.1 0.8 0.9 4 IDA 1.7 12.3 14.0 58 5.6 18.4 24.0 100 Budget and Organization 39. Since Government revenues from road user charges and fuel taxes are adequate to cover all recurrent maintenance expenditures and since no increase of maintenance capacity is proposed under the project, no provision has been made to finance fuel, materials and spare parts. Therefore, in addition to its US$2.2 million contribution (net of taxes) to the project cost, the Ministry of Public Works has budgeted an estimated minimum of US$2.5 million equivalent per year starting 1978 to finance recurrent maintenance expenditures. The Government will be required to maintain the recurrent maintenance budget at least at this level during the remaining years of the execution of the project and to discuss the adequacy of this amount with the  - 11l - Association each year before October 31, taking into account such factors as inflation, price variations and changing traffic patterns and volume (Section 4.05 (d) and (e) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). By June 30, 1978 the Government will provide a plan of action to establish two separate depart- ments within the Ministry of Public Works for the maintenance of Bujumbura's township roads and the national road network, with separate budgets, staff and equipment and thereafter carry out such plans (Section 4.03 of the draft Development Credit Agreement; see paras. 25-26). Procurement 40. The contracts for the main road construction (US$ 11.5 million), road maintenance equipment, the stabilization of steep grades and the up- grading of the 57 km of earth tracks to low standard gravel roads will be let following international competitive bidding. Prequalification of contractors for the main road construction is being carried out by the Government. Should the list of prequalified contractors be acceptable to both IDA and BADEA, the construction of the road will be financed jointly. Otherwise, two separate contracts for distinct road sections would be concluded. The improvement of 370 km of earth tracks and the construction of 21 bridges and the reconstruc- tion of the laboratory building will be carried out by force account. Disbursements 41. The proceeds of the Credit will be disbursed over a period of 4 years against: (a) 45 percent of the total expenditures of the civil works for the main road construction; (b) 80 percent of the total expenditures for the improvement of the road network; (c) 100 percent of foreign expenditures and 80 percent of local expenditures for road maintenance equipment; (d) 100 percent of foreign expenditures and 65 percent of local expenditures for consultants services. Economic Justification and Benefits 42. The economic rate of return for the main road construction averages about 16 percent, including 18 percent for the section Bujumbura-Kihanga, 16 percent for the section Kihanga-Cibitoke and 12 percent for the section Cibitoke-Rugombo. If induced traffic is not taken into account or construc- tion costs increase by 20 percent, the average rate of return on the construc- tion of the entire road would be 15% and 13% and still be justified. The improvement of wooden bridges and steeply graded road sections would have returns of at least 12%. The improvement to gravel or improved earthroad standards of about 430 km of roads selected under the road investment program will yield economic returns in excess of 20% due to vehicle operating cost savings from n.ormal and induced traffic. As regards the highway maintenance  - 12 - component, a reevaluation was made of the highway maintenance program as a whole including the achievements of the first phase and a reassessment of the vehicle operating cost savings. The economic rate of return of the entire has been estimated to be at least 20 percent. The incremental retutiL on the component included in the proposed project will therefore be substantially higher than 20 percent. The combined effect of the implementation of the proposed project would be a decline in the costs of internal road transport and the assurance of all season access to rural areas and markets. The project is therefore of great importance to the farmers in the areas of influence of the improved roads. Risks 43. Because of the high return on road construction and improvement in a country like Burundi, the risks are fairly limited. A major risk will remain the willingness of the Burundi Government to provide sufficient budget funds to meet recurrent expenditures for highway maintenance to secure the investments made in the highway sector, as otherwise the improvements of the road network would quickly deteriorate. We intend to maintain a continuous dialogue with the Government on this matter to assure that sufficient funds for highway maintenance are made available. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 44. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the Republic of Burundi and the Association and, the Recommendation of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section 1 (d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Asso- ciation are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 45. Special conditions of the project are listed in Section III of Annex III of this report. 46. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 47. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed credit. Robert S. McNamara President Attachments February 15, 1978  ANXNU I PAPe T-Or 4 pap* SURUhbl - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SNEET LAND AREA ITHOU KM2)- L-- -tE3 tTHOU-- K2 BUJRUNOI REFERENCE COUNTPIES (19701 TOTAL 27.6 MOST RECENT AGRIC. 16.0 1940 1970 ESTIMAYE MALAWI SIERRA LEONE URUGUAY GNP PER CAPITA IUSS) 50.0 70.0 100.0 10.0 150.0 960.0 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION (P1D-YR, MILLION) 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.5 2.6 2.7 POPULATION DENSITY PFR SJUARE KM. 99.0 121.0 13i.0 38.0 37.0 15.0 PFF sQ. KM. AGRICULTURAL LAND .. 206.0 219.0 l . .- 18.0 VITAL STATISTICS AVERAGE BIRTH RATE (/THOU) 48.3 47.9 48.o 49.3 44.8 22.1 AVERAGF DEATH RATE I/THOU) 30.6 28.0 21.7 28.1 23.5 9.2 INFANT MURTALITY RATE I/THOU) 150.0Aj 138.0 .. .. 183.0 42.6 LIfE EXPtCTANCY AT BIRTH tYRS) 33.5 38.5 39.0 38.5 41.0 69.3 GRCSS REPRODUCTInN RATE 2.6 d 2.8 2.8 3.2 2.9 1.4 POPULATICN GROWTH RATE (E) 4. PTnTAL 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.1 0.7 URBAN . 2. 0 .. 7.0 3.9 1.2 URBAN POPULATION IS OF TOTAL) 2.2 /&.c 2.2 b .. 5.0 / 13.7 78.1 AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0 TO 14 YEARS 46.8 A 45.0 .. 43.9 4 .0 28.3 15 TO b4 YEARS 49.0 /a 52.0 / a . 52.1 R 55.0 63.5 65 YFARS AND OVER 4.2 7a 3.0 /a 4. .0 a 3.0 8.2 AGE DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.0 /a 0.9 .. 0.9/A 0.8 0.6 ECONnMTC DEPENDENCY RATIil 1.0 1.1 /d .. 0.99 1.1 1.0k FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTOR.S (CUMULATIVE, THOU) .. .. .. USERS t ORF MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. .. V-P) JYMfNT TOTAL LAeOQ FORCE (THOUSAND) 1500.0 1700.0 .. 2300.0 1060.0 1020.0 LABOR FORCE IN AGRICULTURE (t) 90.0 86.0 8.0 74.0 17.0 UNFMPL9YED tY OF LABOR FORCE) .. .. .. .. 2.3K 8.0b INCCME DISTRIBUTION I OF PRIVATE INCOME PECo BYY- HIGHEST 5s OF HOUSEHOLOS .. .. .. 29.5 36.2/c 19.0 /c HIG-rST 201 OF HUUSEHOLDS .. .. .. 52.9 62.87 'T7.- LC.FST 20 OF HCUSEHOLDS .. .. .. 5.7 1. 1 4.4 /c L9WEST 40c OF HOUSEHOLDS .. .. .. 15.0 1.Z: 14.2 E DISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP 2 CWNEn dY TeP tO0 OF OWNERS I nWNEi) RY SMALLEST 103 OWNERS .. .. .. HEALTH ANn NUTRITION POPULATICN PEP PHYSICIAN b6CG".J 59sco.o 45990.0 /a 75250.0 17110.0 8ao.0 PCPULATICN PFR NURSING PFRSIA .. ?5rn.c 7090.0 ZX 2590.0/d 33AM.o POPULATICK PER HOSPITAL 1ED 730.0 7J.0A e 81o.o 7& 640.0 1O0o.4o 170.0 PtP CAPITA SUPPLY OF - CALORIES (I OF REQUIPEMENTS) 82.0 100.0 88.0 / 93.0 97.0 107.0 PROTEIN (GRAMS PER OAY) 47.0 61.0 62.0 954.0 49.0 90.0 -F WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 28.0 40.0 9.0 /d 16.0 64.0 DEATH RATE i/THOU) AGES 1-4 .. .. .. .. .. 1.3 EOUCATICN ADJUSTED FNRCLLMENT RATIO PRIMARY SCHOOL L9.0 /d 28.0 g 21.0 36.0 34.0 / 110.0 SECONDARY SCHOOL 1.0 7 2.0 S 2.0 2.0 9.0 X 59.0 YEARS OF SCHCOLING PROVIDED (FIRST AND SECOND LEVEL) 13.0 13.0 13.0 14.0 12.0 12.0 VOCAT IONAL ENROLLMENT (X CF SECONDARYI 35.0 24.0 .. 3.0 3.0 21.0 ADULT LITFPACY RATF IS) .. 10i0 .. *- 15.0 91.0 HOUSING PEPSONS PER ROOM (AVERAGE) .. .. .. 1.9 A 2.1 If OCCUPIEr [,.ELLINGS wITHOUT PIPED WATER tI .. .. .. 78.0/) ,f ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (t CF ALL COWLLINGSI .. .. .. 16.0/..f RURAL DWELLINGS CONNFCTED TO ELECTRICITY (XI .. .. .. CONSUMPTION RADIO RECEIVERS (PEP THOU POP) .. 18.0 25.0 /a 20.0 16.0 346.0 PASSENGER CARS (PER THOU POP) 0.8 1.0 1.0 7 2.0 9.0 45.0 ELECTRICITY IKWH/YR PER CAPI 5.O A 6.0 6.o 32.0 77.0 762.0 NEwSPRINT (KG/YR PER CAP) .. .. .. .. 0.1 7.2 SEE NOTES AND DEFINITIONS ON REVERSE  01410X I P8e 2 of 4 psgee Unless otherwio noted, dote for 1960 refer to ny year btres 1959 and 1961, for 1970 be.tese 1968 ed 1970, nd for Most Recent Etimat. be t=een 1973 end 1975. Ue -rpgnay hbe been selected oe on objectiv- coatry for Burupdi becauea it i * s11 rountry, pri-mrily dependent on griculture, chich hbo achieved o reletive high level of devlop.ent. ______ sin zc 1965, /b 1957 /I Co-neue of BaJinburo, /d 6-12 and 13-18 .e.ro of no resrnnnifely. 'e 1962. 1970 1965-70, /b Coners of Bnd0ujobu, Porplatio eged 15-59 end 60 years end -.v re pe-tively; /d Ratio of popolanion oder 15 and 60 end ovr to labor forc o. 15-60, j Including orer1 hoopite1 end adloaI -eorer. if 6-12 and 13-18 yeors of ge respectively. MOST RECENT EST1HATE /I 19'2; lb 1969-71 overage, /c 1971, Id 6-12 pd 13-18 yeare of *a. re-ptivly. Mal.aWI 1970 Ia 1966, /b Retio of popoletion under 15 and 65 and over to total labor force, /c Coverage of dote nknosQ /d 1964-66; /I 1967, /f urban only. SIERRA LEONE 1970 1 Ratio of popultion coder 15 ond 65 and over to total lobor force, lb Ae pe.TOntegs of total aorking popiletio; Ic 1967-68, seluding Witeanrn Province; /d Incloding midwives, 7o 5-11 and 12-18 years of age reopachivly; 7? 1967, Fretoen only; /S 1967-69. URUlGUAY 1970 La Ratio nf populatinn undr 15 nd 65 and over to total 1ebor ftre; /b Montevideo only, c 1967. R6, tengit 24, 1976 MPINITIONS OF SOCI7A INiI7CATORS Lend Arn (Ihon ki2) = tioD nOonic persn PoPIoiation divided by ,nebee f vpreoticig Intel - Total norfore *0-0 c-mpriain Iend are- and itlend eatra. .ale cod fnle grohccon nurses, 'trained" or "crtifivd" noresn, aid -rtc. - Moo-trecent stit-te of ogricalturol are- -eed tenp-ronily 0r su riliry pnrnci-luith trotting or voperiov-o pern-neotlY for crop. pontorea, -krot & kitvhean grdnco or to lbi Pncoltio- Per honsital bed - Popultion divided by uibor of hoopital bd follow. oeilabI. In public ocd priroto generl cnd opevialinod hospital and rehabilitatioc centers; -1riid.s --r!nng bomes. nd nntkblihn otns for ONiP per capita (0331 - 0N0 par copito entiroavee at current erk-t prlaso, occotodial ond provenrove 0000. alcuvletdd by e conversion sethod *e World Bak Atlne (1973-75 bMio); _tcr vcuia -dyo1s of calonien (9 of reouirements) - Coeotsd fran ianrg -60, 1770 ed 1975 t equi enent of vet food napplien available i couctry per capita pewr day; av ilable _upplien co-pri.e d-otnio prodoxtifa, import. le.e onirte, Pooabetion and vital otatintico and ohenga in stank; cot -uppl-s eanlde anlmal fend,f seede, qrantitiea Population itid-yr. million) - Ad of July fir t: if eot available, ued in food proce-oitg and lonees in distributoon; requiriants wee. overego of voc o-d-year- tie-, 1960, 1970 and 1975 data. ctionted by PAO boned pn pbyncoiogi,al needo far no00 1 tivity - and healtb -oedering mvrco tal eo-t-ic', 10,6 wIgiote, aOR sod Povulation de -ity - 000 square kh - Mid-ynnv population per eq-aer kilo- endistib-tiov of Pipe latiot, cod alov1vig 10% ftr boat eat hogheild P4evt: (100 hbcavoel of totol ar. level. ruicon dit - c r k of R d - Cpted s bo Per 1 spplof ,Ptei gs r yl - Protein contint of per gni-olo-al ladonly. -npit nt ppy n food Fr ; vet supply of food in defined an vital Statiatics Oseocrb Servivet provide for - tio,n atilobol n oh 60y gne ofno tl- Crudc bitbrave ypr tho-aand - annual live bibth per thoueend of mid- protein per day, avd 20 gra3s of animal and pulse prote.i, of whirh 10 year population ton-ycar . rit.hntic nycrasgn onding in 1960 mod 1970, graee noh-d be cnrial p1 otalc.; tone, stnidarde are loer ohan th-oe of and five-ye-r avorage endiog in 1975 for noet recent eetiAte. 75 g-a3s of total prototn and 23 groms of animal proist n . an overag Crude deatb rnte Oer thbo _and - Aona1l doothe per thouaand of oid-year for tim -orld, proposed by FAO in the Thord World Foci Surey. population, ten-yeer erithnetic everago ending in 1960 and 1970, and Per cavita protein supply Loo anlo and pule - Protein oupply of food five-year averag ending in 1975 for mont receDnts ts ived fron animala and pulse- 10 groms per day. 1,,f ~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- Anuo death. per tbhcavd to age gooey i-4 Inrent:voe't.nlilypu9gjlth-) - Annu s deothb of Ifito Ucder one year yeare,ovohisF7 thi agne roup; suggestrd 00 -eo erdioctor of eel- oli*ge jerih iaU vliee irths. nutrition. lATe evfeegancy at birth (s) - Average nveber of yesrs of life ramain- ing at birib; wuoaly five-year averages onding in 1960, 1970 and Ruamtian 1975 for de-elopog countries. A teyq oM:0 nt ratio P ar)n5.9pjpil - Fnrollnt of all igen an 0rost rtproaducation ro - iv-rage nvmbor of live daugiters a woan will percnti6rj 'nr Priam dW popIition; tewiudee el Cidm. aged beeif oher no rodctie period if she soperiven-e pre.ent age- 6-11 yea but adjusted for diffreint langthe of primary eduse7ion; np_ if iv fertility ratr ueoa1ly five-year veragee ending to 1960, for vouvtri.n with cinaedicotatoo, evoo1leet ny _erRd 3 00% 1970 cod 5975 1 r de.nloping vou-trite. cov oin-e pap1le- are or-I- 0 above th. offioial ehool age. Poeclato_ _roatb rath (7,1 - total - Co-pocod aco.al gr-.th r-veo of aid- Adbsted ocrloont rahto - aevondary eobaol - conputed ao tv-e;eoond- year popolotio t for 1950-b6 1960-70 end 1970-75 arJ educaiion requir e ci lecf four years of approved Prieary inntru Population grobth rain (S) - urban - Covpoted like gronth rate of titol t-on; providos general, vovational or teaohor t-ining ineto-ationo for popuatiattoel dfferent deficltinne of 00bte arson t fiy *rrant corara- pupile of 17 to 17 yearn of age; corrspondenoe o -urner are generally bility of data a.ong c-ctres. ea-loedd. Urban popuAtion (S of total) - Ratio of urban to total population, dif- Yan of feert defititivon of urbau nrnes nay cffect -oqp-rability of data s-tooling; dt secondary level, -voctional instruction any be p. rtiniy amtong vavictrien. aOr caeplntely orloded, Age dralctrLfprornt) - Children (0-1li yearn), corking-age (15-64 yearn), Vovational nrollnent (5 of neoondary) - Vocational inalitution inlude an tre d e (>yenrs and crer) an perventagns of eid-yoar populatio. tevhfctal, Industrial or other prograee thinh operate indepondeetly or ig. d pendencY rati. - Ratio of populatIon -nder 15 and 6 and over to those9 of _aXes 1F thogn 64. Ad'lt ltPitra rena te - Literant a.tite (aboi to read and rite) as per- bcono,ic de,oend-enry ti - hiato of population under IS and 65 end over ntonge of total adult poplation aged 15 yearn od ovor, to tns . in orDe g. group of 15-64 year. Ydily plnn o (vcs-p lative. thir) - Cfnctulon. nouber of houine cpt- of tral deivre nder aspive of natio.al family &G per gaveragp) - Average n-mber of persons per room in anoupiod planning progran sivna inoeption. ,ii urban b rea,; dwellingn enlude non-persmeswt Panly planning - users (9 of nerred asic) - Percent-gen of ernied etructurne and unocoupied parts. wmennc of cbild-bearing age (15-u years) who use kirth-sntrol de- (Octed deePlinee elitout pined jater (i) - 0O-upied eanvitionel dsll- vices to all married wen in sn age group. tnge in u penrerel areaswithoug tiide an outside piped satan facilitiee 0percetage of all -.opied idsefUoge. IF.V A_ s~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~oee to ele rtolety (9 of all dwlIg) - Cnvttssal dwellIngs with fotal .bor for,e (thow nd) - Roonoeleally netive pernone, occluding elettriciv in livpg quarters aspvt of tn101 deling in when aried f"'o Ia'd Rnoy d but cluding heownwive, stodents, eta.; ad via area.t definitions In v-rion vountries are not voeyarable. to etioi( - Coitld en ba for rural labor f00 n i* oi.tre (S) - Agnioultural labor force (in farming, 9 otyyr r 7re ary" nng d fishing) as percsotage of total labor frne. Une=p0yed (S of labor force) - 17nesployed are wually defined ae persons who are abl an to take a job, oat of a job on a given day, C".r(ti per tea rimained olt of a Job, and seeking ark for a spevified nintmon oasis to general public per thousnd of pulation; foriudee hrnad; period not noveding one wek; nay not be vopoerabl between o0n0- rtvtiven Ounprie an In ear ce oqotton ofrdo eats as trise due to differsnt definitions of uamaployed and sourve of data, Iefect; at ornrecent yearsar sat beaorparablo sain mDet nwon- e.g., nployanat offife otatinti-n, ..mple surveys, vomi,so,ry one- tries abvliehd li-ing. ployment innurane. f gg e ) _ Passenger oars onqrtee ato oars Outng 1iiohM6jh_ thoniPop -uPe. aeOcng- -r, bepAree gtand ctareyetn Tncone distribution - Percentgo of prints inoP.e (both in caeb and vebcl esld a anc, he r nd tary kind) received by ri,hbet 5%, riohent 20%, pooreet 20%, and poorest E1jctrU it l!dp_V_2 A- -I ncu -necvtiov cf indisetrial, va aenr- 506 of h-hcebldo. 611 uleiid6inevtricitV in kiloeatt-h-oar Per capita; Ren- ndst of leod otsneonban - Peroertagen of land mined by cealhibent r eello d on probrductin dat-, witotot alloan- fo,r loases in gride 11sndtrboiof ho16 of landt allowing fnr i porte and eaport of electri,ity. i a pwtofint l u}kgsr par ,S.) - Per c-pita annual -oosuptiot in kilogrem Health nd l,trition eti-t for dovtio production plus -et inpoota of newsprint. i-- Popisioc divided by ncobsr cf praotl,ing phy31icstq-ileiNid from a medical osbhol at _nivoreity level.  ANEX I Page 3 of 4 pages ECONOMIC INDICATORS OROSS NATIONAL PODUCT fl; 1976 ANNUAL ItATE OF GROW! (S', constant prices) US$ Mlm. % 1971 -76 1976 ClU at Market Prices 462.3 100.0 2.1 8.1 Gross Do-nestic Invastment 52.8 11.4 3.4 23.1 Cross National Saving 25.5 5.5 5.5 168.1 Current Account Balance 4.2 0.9 Exports of Goods, NiS 61. J3.j 1.0 -14.i Imports Of Go2Coxs, NFS 77.5 16.8 3.5 -3.1 MT?U, LABOR FORCE AND ?DUTIVITY 2N 1976 Value Added US$i Hln. ,g Agriculture 273.7 57.8 Indust:.X 57.6 12.2 Services 95.9 20.2 Unaflocated 46,4 9.8 Total/Average 3 473.6 100.0 COVLNUXE1T4 MlANC= CentrAl Oovernment (RuV Mln.) _ of OD? 1 7976 76192- 76 Current Receipts .,5,035.4 12.3 11.2 Current Expenditure 4,413.1 10.8 10.7 Current Surplus 22.3 1.5 Capital Exp4nditurea 2,04.8 .0 45 Lxtornal Assistance (net) 1,242.0 3.0 3.7 )iiUY4 CeDIT and SIC!S 1972 1973 IP4 1975 1976 7mllon Bu? outstanding end period) Money and Quani Money 2,565.9 2,491.9 2,990.9 3,542.3 3,544.4 5,220.4 Bank credit to Public Sector 702.4 775.8 897.5 897.6 1,271.6 1,125.0 Bank Credit to Pri-ate Sector 1,183.1 1,211.1 1,446.0 2,730.0 1,322.6 2,231.7 (Percentages or Izdex NumberD) Money and Quasi Money as % of GDP 11.3 11.6 13.2 15.8 15.5 21.0- General Price Indax (1970 - 100) 103.9 107.8 114.2 132.2 153.1 163.5 Annual percentage changes ins Oenoral Price Indox 3.9 3.8 5.9 15.8 15.8 6.8 Bank credit to Public Sector -14.2 10.4 15.7 - 41.7 -11.5 Bank credit to Private Sector 26.7. 2.4 19.4 88.8 -51.6 68.7 NMT&a AUl conversdons to dollars in this table are at the average exchange Oate prevailing during the period oovered. | TDe GS? per capita Is bw.*ed on tho Worli Baak Atlaa rethodo1ogy (1974-76 bais). not avallable . not applicable  ANNEX I Page 4 of 4 pages TRADE PAYMENTS AND CAPITAL FLOWS LkANCE 0 PAYH2TTS )MCZUNDIS! EXPOISS (AVEEAGE 1974-76) 1974 1975 1976 US $ Mn . (Millions US $) Coffee 34.5 85.8 Exports of Goods, NFS 33.7 34.8 61.5 Cotton 1.6 4.0 Iaports of Goods, NFS 53.6 80.0 77.5 Skins 1.3 3.3 Resource Gap (deficit 9 -) -99 *:2 -16.0 Tea 0.9 2.2 Interest Payments (net) -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 Workers' Remittances -8.8 -8.2 -10.7 Other Factor Payments (net) - - - Vet Transfers 18.2 21.1 31.4 All other comodities 1.9 4.7 Balance on Current Account -10.7 -32.7 4.2 otl 40.2 100 Direct Foreign Investment 0.2 - - EXTERNAL DEBT, DECE.tER 31. 1976 Net HLT Borrowing 2.2 14.7 4.2Mln Amortization 0.7 1.6 2.3 Subtotal 1.5 13.1 1.9 Public Debt, Incl. guaranteed 23.7 Capital Grants 14.6 18.4 13.9 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt Other Capital (net) -7.0 17.8 -7.0 Total outstanding & Disbursed 23.7 Other item n.e.i _.6.0 -2.1 1.1 1/ Increase in Reserves (+) 7.4 -14.5 -14.1 DEBT SERVICE RATIO for 1q76 - Cross Reserves (end year)