Chad - Second Livestock Project

Document of FILE COPY The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-2187-CD REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR8 ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF CHAD FOR A SECOND LIVESTOCK PUGOECT March 15, 1978 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise he disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit CFA Franc (CFAF) US$1.00 CFAF 245 1/ CFAF 1,000 US$4.08 ABBREVIATIONS ABF Abattoir Frigorifique de Farcha (Farcha slaughterhouse and cold storage) EDF European Development Fund FAC Fonds d'Aide et de Cooperation (French Fund for Aid and Cooperation) RMWA World Bank Regional Mission for West Africa SERARHY Services des Amenagements Ruraux d'Hydraulique (Rural Water Supply Agency) SOTERA Societe Tchadienne d'Exploitation des Ressources Animales (Chadian Livestock Company) UNDP United Nations Development Program USAID United States Agency for International Development FISCAL YEAR Government: January 1 - December 31 Project: October 1 - September 30 1/ Floating Exchange Rate.  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CHAD SECOND LIVESTOCK PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: Republic of Chad Amount: US$11.5 million Terms: Standard Project Description: The proposed project is designed to develop livestock production by working through associations of pastor- alists. The project would consist of the following six main components: (i) provision of livestock services to associations of pastoralists, including animal health, husbandry techniques, protection of rangelands and stock watering points; (ii) provision of credit for herd reconstitution and steer fattening; (iii) provision of equipment and materials for Livestock Department, SERARHY and Farcha Abattoir; (iv) assistance to a tsetse eradication program; (v) management training for Livestock Department senior staff; and (vi) preparation of a follow up project. Livestock services, which is by far the largest component, at 70 percent of project costs, would benefit about 100,000 families with an average size of 10 people. Their average annual income would increase from approximately US$650 to some US$900, US$1,000 per year, depending on the extent to which they participate in the various programs. The herd reconstitution program would assist about 650 pastoral families now living mainly on famine relief. The limited reequipment of the Farcha Abattoir will help avoid discon- tinuing the operations of the only modern slaughterhouse in the Country. The tsetse eradication program would open up possibilities for more livestock production in the south of the country, where feed resources are more abundant and there is better scope for mixed farming. The training would broaden the skills of Livestock Department staff required to provide a wide range of husbandry and range management services. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  The project faces the risks associated with Chad's diffi- cult internal security situation. Some project activities, vaccination aLnd drug distribution, would partly take place in areas currently considered unsafe. However, these project activities could be adequately supervised at main vaccination centers, all of which are accessible. Chad's budgetary situation poses another risk, but important cost recovery mechanisms have been designed within this project which would reduce this problem. A further risk arises from the innovative nature of the credit component. To limit this risk, this component would be implemented gradually and would be particularly closely monitored. Estimated Costs (Net of Taxes. The project is exempt from taxes) Local Foreign Total ----------- (US$ thousand) ----------- Pastoral units and livestock services 2,865 4,358 7,223 Credit 807 110 917 Abattoir equipment - 114 114 Tsetse surveys and eradication 714 1,763 2,477 Organization and Management 394 825 1,219 Base cost estimate 4,780 7,170 11,950 Physical contingencies 667 921 1,588 Expected price increases 1,021 1,531 2,552 Total Project Cost 6,468 9,622 16,090 Financing Plan: Local Foreign Total ----------- (US$ thousand) ----------- Beneficiaries 1,200 - 1,200 EDF 500 2,900 3,400 IDA 4,800 6,700 11,500 Total 6,500 9,600 16,100 Estimated Disbursements: (Amounts in US$ million) IDA Fiscal Year 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Annual 2.0 3.2 3.0 2.6 0.7 Cumulative 2.0 5.2 8.2 10.8 11.5  - iii - Rate of Return: The economic rate of return for the livestock services component exceeds 100 percent; this component represents about 70 percent of project costs. Appraisal Report: Appraisal of a Second Livestock Project - Chad, No. 1773-CD dated March 8, 1978.   INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE REPUBLIC OF CHAD FOR A SECOND LIVESTOCK PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed de- velopment credit to the Republic of Chad for the equivalent of US$11.5 mil- lion on standard IDA terms to help finance a Second Livestock Project. The European Development Fund (EDF), would participate in the financing of the project with a grant of US$3.4 million equivalent. PART I - THE ECONOMY Background 2. The following paragraphs incorporate the conclusions of an Economic Memorandum (Report No. 1340-CD) which was distributed to the Board in July 1977 and was based on missions that visited Chad in 1976 and March 1977. Furthermore, the findings of a short economic mission that went to Chad in November 1977 are also incorporated in this report. 3. With scarce natural resources, a harsh climate, limited social and economic infrastructure and a pervasive lack of skilled manpower, Chad faces unusually large handicaps in its economic development. High transportation costs to and from the outside world compound the problem. The main centers of activity in this vast landlocked country are about 2,000 km from the sea; in early 1976 freight rates from the port of Douala in Cameroon to Southern Chad were about US$130/ton for bulk goods and US$180/ton for general goods. 4. In 1976, Chad's GNP per capita was estimated at US$120. Chad is therefore one of the poorest countries in Africa and is classified as one of the world's 29 "least-developed" countries by the United Nations. Close to 90 percent of the population, estimated at about four million, lives in rural areas deriving its livelihood from agriculture and livestock. About half of the rural population lives in the southwest, where rainfall levels are relatively favorable to agriculture (about 1,000 mm/year). In this region millet and sorghum are grown as subsistence crops and cotton as the predominant cash crop. The other half of the country's inhabitants are mainly pastoralists living in the dry grassland belt with lower and less reliable rainfall. Re- cently, efforts have been made to intensify traditional rice growing on the flood plains of the Logone River and to accelerate the development of the rich polders in the Lake Chad area. 5. During the 1960s, real GDP increased about 2 percent annually. The highest growth rates were achieved in the market economy (mainly import substitution industries and services), while the growth rate of livestock and subsistence crops probably did not reach that of population, which was  - 2 - estimated at about 2.1 percent per year. Incomes have risen faster in the small urban sector than in the rural areas and, within the latter, producers of cash crops have gained more than pastoralists and subsistence farmers. Recent Developments 6. Three factors have affected economic growth and the financial situation since the late 1960s: internal security problems, droughts and a deterioration in the terms of trade. The rebellion that broke out in 1968 rendered large areas insecure and cul: off traditional cattle routes. Due to a lack of security and maintenance funds, wells were neglected and the water supply for livestock dwindled. Animal disease control suffered a setback. The impact of the internal security problems was compounded by severe droughts, which occurred in three of the five years from 1969-1973. Water levels in the rivers reached an all-time low, and Lake Chad shrank to one-third of its normal size. Livestock losses were substantial, resulting in a reduction in the cattle herd by one-third. Food crops were also hard hit: in 1972 produc- tion of millet and sorghum fell to about 70 percent of pre-drought levels and to about 60 percent in 1973. Emergency food shipments from abroad helped the hard hit areas. With the return of normal rainfall, food production recov- ered to pre-drought levels in 1974/1975. However, in 1976 a localized drought occurred in Chad's Sahelian zone affecting agricultural output and requiring the resumption of food aid. Drought again occurred in 1977 with a compara- tively limited impact. 7. After the 1973 drought, cotton production picked up considerably reaching a record volume of 175,000 tons in 1975/1976. The upturn in cotton production stimulated industry, transportation and trade. However, cotton production decreased in 1976/1977 to about 150,000 tons and in 1977/78 to an estimated 130,000 tons. The principal factors responsible for the continued fall were inadequate rainfall leading to conflicting needs between foodcrop and cotton production and the declining motivation of extension agents whose salaries have stagnated since 1970. Livestock production, after an upsurge in the drought years because of emergency slaughterings, has substantially de- creased, reflecting the reduction of the herd and the beginning of reconstitu- tion efforts. While the livestock sector was also constrained by past market- ing policies, the Government has recently improved the situation by adopting a more liberal approach through the establishment of an export cooperative in- volving state and private enterprises. Finally, the economy has borne the full impact of variations in the terms of trade due to increased import prices and fluctuations in cotton export prices. The terms of trade worsened by about 11 percent between 1972 and 1974, improved with the increase of com- modity prices between 1975 and 1977 and began to deteriorate again in mid-1977 with the decline in cotton prices. This deterioration is expected to persist through 1978. 8. Until 1968 the Government succeeded in balancing the budget, and fiscal performance was satisfactory despite development constraints. After 1968 expenditures began to grow more rapidly than revenue, as military spend- ing increased; security and defense expenditures now account for about one- third of the current budget. The drought also increased demand for Govern- ment relief services while reducing revenues.  9. Higher import prices and the rise in Government employment--as a means of containing unemployment, especially among school leavers--also contributed to the Government's financial difficulties. Combined with stagnant public revenues these factors resulted in an increase in budgetary deficits from CFAF 2.0 billion in 1970 (15.5 percent of revenues) to CFAF 4.4 billion in 1976 (about 30 percent of revenues). The Government financed part of this deficit with limited domestic resources, but the remainder of the gap was covered by the accumulation of payment arrears to local and foreign suppliers and creditors. Arrears of payments were estimated to amount to CFAF 10.5 billion by end-1976, or about 70 percent of budgetary revenues for that year. For this reason, foreign budgetary assistance, which had been instrumental in closing the gap in the past, was stepped up in 1976. The use of part of this assistance to repay local and foreign suppliers, as well as the Government's efforts at containing expenditures, have stemmed the growth of arrears and reestablished confidence on the part of suppliers. 10. The Government's recent attempts to stabilize public finances have included measures to increase revenues by collecting tax arrears and raising the cotton export tax, as well as measures to reduce expenditures by maintaining a freeze on wages and limiting the increase in public employment. The Government has also restricted purchases of certain materials and supplies, ceased budgeting for investment purposes, and deferred maintenance of capital assets. To isolate resources for priority uses, the Government has reinstated the Road Fund, to finance road maintenance, and established the Autonomous Amortization Fund, for debt repayment, both supplied with earmarked tax resources. With the help of the IMF, authorities are reviewing the fiscal structure to improve revenue collection and to increase resources. Structural changes will be implemented only gradually, however, and will not contribute in the immediate future to alleviating the critical shortage of public revenues. Therefore, the effectiveness of most Government services will continue to be hampered. External Aid 11. Since 1973, aid flows have been substantial, with grants alone almost equalling tax revenues in 1973 and 1975, and exceeding them by 24 percent in 1974. Total disbursements of external aid in 1973-1976 were US$327 million, three-quarters of which were grants. In 1976, aid disbursements reached a record level of about US$105 million. Aid from OPEC countries rose from zero in 1972 to 10 percent of total aid in 1973 and 18 percent in 1975 and in 1976. Nearly two-thirds of official aid disbursements came from bilateral donors (France, 52 percent; USA, 5 percent; Germany, 4 percent; Canada, 3 percent), the remainder from multilateral sources (EDF, 26 percent; UN organizations, 6 percent; IDA, 3 percent). External aid financed practically all public investments. Up to 1975, the inflow of foreign aid offset the large deficits in the current account of Chad's balance of payments so that its reserve position with the Central Bank remained stable. Since 1974 private investment in petroleum research has also helped offset increasing deficits. Moreover in 1976, record cotton sales, along with stagnating imports, substantial foreign aid and private investment, produced an unprecedented balance of payments surplus of about US$25 million. At the end of 1976, net foreign assets stood at about US$4 million compared to a December 1975 low of minus US$19 million.  -4- 12. Chad's external debt is a considerable burden for a country with such limited resources. At the end of 1976 total outstanding external debt (including undisbursed) was estimated at approximately US$250 million or about 52 percent of GDP for that year. Oi- this about 40 percent had been disbursed. The largest increase in oustanding debt occurred between 1973 and 1975 during the worst period of the recent drought, at a time when the Government was undergoing severe budgetary difficuLties. These difficulties also led to Chad's increasing inability to service the debt resulting in the accumulation of arrears of about US$10 million al: the end of 1976 equivalent to about 25 percent of overall arrears due to creditors and suppliers. For 1976, the external public and guaranteed debt service due, excluding arrears, was estimated at US$10.5 million or 9 percent of exports of goods and non-factor services; it is estimated under reasonable assumptions that the annual debt service will remain at about the same level in the mid 1980s. While the ratio of debt service to exports is manageable, the bulk of service payments has to be financed by budgetary revenues. The debt service ratio with respect to budgetary revenues, excluding arrears, was estimated at 17 percent in 1976. The Government has established a Caisse Autonome d'Amortissement responsible for overall debt management and admjinistration. The Caisse is financed with earmarked revenues and its Director reports directly to the Head of State. The Bank has assisted the Caisse Autonome in setting up debt reporting and monitoring procedures. The Government has successfully reached a debt rescheduling agreement with France for debt owned to Caisse Centrale de Cooperation Economique, and a rescheduling agreement for arrears owed to Air Afrique has recently been concluded. The Government is also discussing rescheduling of debts with other bilateral creditors. Development Prospects 13. Chad's development potential lies primarily in agriculture and related activities. The Government is carefully exploiting available invest- ment opportunities (textiles, sugar, edible oils and soaps, irrigated agricul- ture) and has obtained EDF and FAC support to launch a south Chad agricultural development program aimed at improving cotton production and crop diversifica- tion. This program is part of an overall interim development plan which, in addition to cotton productivity, emphasizes the improvement of Chad's domestic and international transport infrastructure as well as the delivery of basic services, particularly primary educattion. Recently, the Government accounced the discovery of oil in the northwestern and southern parts of the country. For the time being, Government is ccncentrating on solving its domestic petroleum supply problems through thLe construction of a small import substitut- ing refinery. This will somewhat reduce the trade gap while providing some extra budgetary resources. Prospects for a larger oil development project are uncertain. Other mineral prospects are being investigated by a UNDP team. Financial Prospects and Recurrent Cc,sts 14. The fiscal situation is a serious obstacle to development, since the Government cannot contribute to the financing of required investments nor finance all recurrent costs of ongoing and new high-priority projects.  The Government has undertaken a review of the tax svstem with the helo of the IMF and has recently increased export taxes on cotton. However, the narrow tax base and the rising cost of maintaining even the present level of public services, make it unlikely that substantial budgetary savings can be generated during the remainder of the 1970s. In view of Chad's financial constraints, its poverty and modest growth prospects, external funds should be provided on the most concessionary terms possible. Moreover, in the next few years foreign aid agencies should finance a high proportion of total project costs, including lo_al costs and some dievelopment-related recurrent costs. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN CHAD 15. Development of Chad's agriculture, transportation and human re- sources continues to be the main objective of Bank Group assistance to the country. Eleven IDA credits to date amount to US$51.1 million. Six credits and a supplementary credit have been extended for agricultural projects, two credits have financed transport projects and two credits have financed educa- tion projects. Finally one credit which was made in September 1977 for a Sahelian Zone Project comprises essentially agricultural development schemes but also transport and rural water supply. Five of the ten projects are either completed or near completion; the others are progressing satisfactorily. Delays have occurred in project implementation mainly due to lack of counter- part funds and supplies, but also because of building design problems and late signing of consultant contracts. A common constraint to development in all sectors is insufficiency of Government funds for maintenance and recurrent costs. Annex II contains a summary statement of IDA credits as of January 31, 1978, and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 16. In agriculture our main objectives are: (a) to help Government assure a sufficient food supply for the growing urban as well as the pre- dominantly rural population; (b) to help expand income from cattle exports; and (c) to protect Chad's overall economic base against the vagaries of climate. In rainfed agriculture, past IDA lending has been designed to raise rural productivity mainly through the provision of infrastructIre, equipment and storage facilities. In irrigation, IDA is assisting in the financing of the Sategui-Deressia and Lake Chad Polders Projects which will produce, among other products, rice, wheat and seed cotton. The Sahelian Zone Project will initiate drought-alleviating measures that will sustain or step up crop, livestock and forestry exploitation in the zone. Our First Livestock Project assisted the Government with the rehabilitation and construction of Sahelian pastoral wells and with studies of the livestock sector; the proposed Second Livestock Project would carry this further by providing animal health services, animal husbandry, pastoral development, pastoral wells, credit and marketing. 17. In transportation, we are giving priority to road maintenance and to improvement of feeder roads and agricultural export routes. The first proj- ect helped to build-up a primary road maintenance capacity in the Department  - 6 - of Public Works. The Second Highway Project and the road component of the Rural Projects Fund are designed to improve feeder roads; a proposed Third Highway Project, would essentially serve to improve and maintain about 5,300 km of primary and secondary roads in the South and in the Sahelian Zone. We are also considering projects which would improve Chad's transport links with the sea. 18. Two education projects in 1968 and 1971 assisted the Government in setting up institutions for training teachers and agricultural and indus- trial technicians--the most needed skills in the economy. A proposed Third Education Project, recently appraiseid, would mainly aim at improving primary education facilities in rural areas. 19. Chad's severe financial and manpower constraints limit investment opportunities and necessitate special arrangements for counterpart funds, recurrent costs, training and institution building. IDA and other donors have assisted the Government in financing local costs pending the improve- ment of the economy. Recurrent cost-financing problems have been resolved in different ways: by designing projects which promote cost recovery; by establishing special funds replenished with earmarked revenues; and by pro- viding technical assistance grants which do not increase the burden of debt service. Furthermore some donors, primarily France, also make direct con- tribution for covering recurrent cost expenditures in many sectors including education. 20. Most of our operations in Chad have been coordinated with other donors and several projects are being executed under joint or parallel financ- ing. The recent focus on the problems of the Sahel has increased the number of donors seeking cofinancing with IDA. The proposed project like the two others in the pipeline would benefit from cofinancing. The amount of co- financing thus tentatively pledged in FY78 and FY79 is likely to match the proposed IDA lending to Chad during this period. IDA lending accounted for 17 percent of the total outstanding disbursed external public debt at the end of 1976 and on average represents 4 percent of Chad's projected debt service over the 1977-1985 period. PART III - THE RURAL SECTOR 21. The rural sector contributes about 55 percent to GDP and about 90 percent to exports, of which cotton, livestock, animal products and fish are the main commodities. Livestock raising is a major economic activity, providing a third of the rural population with its main source of living and accounting for 25-30 percent of merchandise exports. Livestock Subsector 22. About 80 percent of thle herd is raised in the Sahelian zone where pastoralists practice seasonal migration. In 1970 the livestock population was about 4.5 million cattle, 5 million sheep and goats, 0.5 million camels and 0.5 million horses and donkeys. The 1973 drought caused substantial  - 7 - o~sses of the livestock population (see para. 6); recent census data indicate that the cattle population has since increased to nearly 4 million while the number of other stock has already reached pre-drought levels. In 1975, gross annual income for the typical extended family was CFAF 176,000 (US$720) of which CFAF 103,000 (US$420) came from livestock, with the rest from comple- mentary cropping and fishing activities. Pastoralists per capita income was about US$60, about equal to that of small-scale farmers in the south of the country. Marketing, Pricing and Taxation 23. Animals are marketed through a traditional private system in which pastoralists sell their stock either directly or through 40 principal and secondary markets to large traders. About 60 percent of cattle offtake is exported. Apart from limited exports of chilled meat by air (about 2,000 tons), animals are moved on the hoof to both domestic and foreign, mainly Nigerian, consumption centers. Government has attempted to collect live- stock taxes by means of head taxes, sales taxes and export duties. During and after the drought, the head and sales taxes were abolished. Revenues from livestock taxes fell from a peak of CFAF 630 million to CFAF 250 million or 2 percent of Government revenues in 1975 when Government introduced pro- hibition on live animal exports. 24. A livestock taxation study, financed under Credit 309-CD, recom- mended that Government introduce fees for vaccinations and work more closely with private exporters of live animals. While Government agrees in principle, it considers and IDA agrees that charges for vaccinations are not yet practi- cable; for, until all pastoralists are aware of the benefits to be obtained, the universal coverage required to protect against contagious diseases and ul- timately eradicate some of them would be jeopardized. Government has already acted on the second recommendation. A Livestock Marketing Company, Societe Tchadienne d'Exploitation des Ressources Animales (SOTERA), has been formed in which the Chadian Government is associated with private livestock traders. The company will be responsible for orderly live animal exports through a li- censing system and will have a monopoly for exports of chilled meat and hides and skins. The prohibition on live animal exports was lifted in February 1977 and livestock producer prices have increased accordingly. These measures re- flect a general tendency to remove any arbitrary impediments to internal and external commerce and to revert to a market oriented approach to pricing. Institutions 25. The Ministry of Rural and Pastoral Development is responsible for the administration and development of the livestock industry mainly through its Livestock Department. This Department's staff is occupied almost entirely with disease control and no section deals specifically with animal husbandry or range management. The Ministry also supervises the Rural Water Supply Agency, SERARHY, and a slaughterhouse and cold storage facility, the Abattoir Frigorifique de Farcha (ABF). SERARHY is a specialized agency under the Rural Engineering Department which constructs and maintains stock watering parts  - 8 - throughout the country and village wells in most areas. ABF was established in 1958 as a public commercial body to provide controlled hygienic slaughter- ing facilities for meat for N'Djaimena and for meat exports by air to African coastal markets. The Farcha Laboratory in N'Djamena produces a wide range of vaccines for the supply of the veterinary services. This Laboratory forms part of the Institut d'Elevage et de Mledecine Veterinaire de Pays Tropicaux in Paris, financed by France and other participant countries. Discussions are actually underway between the Chadian and French Governments in order to give this Laboratory the status of a Chadian public enterprise. Subsector Strategy 26. Government's main objective for the livestock subsector has been and continues to be increased production of cattle, primarily for export, and of smallstock, primarily for domestic consumption. Until recently, the strategy chosen to realize this objective was the provision of animal health services, stock watering points and market facilities. These measures remain necessary but have had some undesirable side effects. First, they induced rapid herd growth resulting in high stocking rates and overgrazing particu- larly around watering points which, in turn caused high cattle losses during the drought; the 1973 drought entailed losses of about a third of the cattle and 10 percent of other stock. Second, the maintenance of stock watering points and provision of animal health services require recurrent financing which Government is unable to provide. 27. Government recognizes these deficiencies and considers that, through the delineation of pastoral units and recognition of association of pastoral- ists it will be possible (a) to improve management of communally-owned pas- tures and to emphasize improved aLnimal husbandry rather than allowing for unrestrained herd growth as a meaLns to increase output and (b) to allocate stock watering points to specific associations of pastoralists, thus giving them the incentive to participate in maintenance and easing the pressure on the Government budget. Government's current strategy is, therefore, a blend of its earlier approach and the rLewly-recognized need to increase animal and pastoral productivity through increased pastoralists' participation. 28. Government also recognizes that, in the long term, the physical production potential of the Sahelian zone rangelands is not great and live- stock development will have to take place increasingly in the better watered south of the country where potential feed resources are more ample and con- ditions more favorable for mixed farming. One of the main deterrents to such a policy is the danger of disease infestation, particularly trypano- somiasis. To facilitate livestock development in the South, action is planned to eradicate the tsetse fly. 29. Bank Group strategy in the livestock sector has also reflected these changing strategy considerations. The First Livestock Project (Credit 309-CD) consisted mainly of open well construction and repairs. In addition, studies of the livestock subsector which were to lead to a national livestock plan, were to be executed through an ongoing UNDP project. The project had  - 9 - a long gestation period. It was appraised in 1966, but did not begin until mid-1974 - and the volume of work was reduced to accommodate cost increases. By now 90 percent of the credit has been disbursed and the well construction and repair works were satisfactorily completed in late 1976. 30. However, the UNDP project was terminated in late 1975 before most of the studies financed under the IDA project had even been started. The more important of the studies financed under the IDA project were then commis- sioned and supervised by the Livestock Department and IDA and their scope was expanded to include the delineation of pastoral units and association of pastoralists in Batha prefecture, and a first attempt to identify health and husbandry activities for smallstock. Parallel with these studies, FAC financed a study of herd reconstitution in the Kanem prefecture and other studies were financed as part of the drought relief assistanc provided by the European Community, notably agrostological maps of the Sahelian zone and a livestock census. 31. The proposed Second Livestock Project reflects the new Government thinking and draws on all these studies and includes: (a) measures to increase animal and pastoral productivity particularly in the Sahel through increased participation by pastoralists in the management of the environment, and (b) tsetse eradication in the South to pave the way for subsequent expansion of the livestock industry. Under the Sahelian Zone Project (Credit 739-CD), attention was given mainly to the continuation of existing livestock vaccina- tion and health services pending the new wide-ranging approach of this pro- posed Second Livestock Project. PART IV - THE PROJECT 32. The Government has requested IDA assistance to finance a Second Livestock Project which would increase animal and pastoral productivity by working through association of pastoralists. The project was identified by the Bank Regional Mission in West Africa (RMWA) in 1975 and prepared by Bank Group staff and Government from studies financed by the European Community, the Fonds d'Aide et de Cooperation (FAC) and the First Livestock Project (Credit 309-CD). The proposed project was appraised by an IDA mission in February/March 1977 and a follow-up mission in June 1977. A report en- titled "Appraisal of a Second Livestock Project - Chad", No 1773-CD dated March 8, 1978, is being distributed separately and a Credit and Project Summary is presented at the beginning of this report. Negotiations for the proposed credit were held in Washington from February 21 to 24 with a Chadian delegation led by H.E. Ahmed Kerim Togoi, Minister of Economy, Plan- ning and Transport. Project Objectives and Description 33. The main objectives of developing livestock production particularly in the Sahelian zone would be achieved by (a) getting pastoralists to accept  - 10 - responsibility for the environment through their participation in the manage- ment and improvement of communal rangelands and stock watering points; (b) broadening the field of competence of the Livestock Department, from provision of animal health services to provision of animal and pastoral productivity services; and (c) increasing the scope for livestock production in the South of the country through tsetse eradication. The project area would be the whole country with the exception of the Assale canton (Map 13103) and the project would include: (a) delineation of pastoral units based on traditional land- use patterns, and formal recognition of about 75 associa- tions of pastoralists based on traditional social groups, in the prefectures of flatha, Kanem and Chari Baguirmi; (b) provision of a package of services to associations of pas- toralists, including animal health, supplies and advice on animal husbandry techniques and on protection of range- lands, and maintenance and selective extension of stock watering points; (c) the supply and delivery to pastoralists of vaccinations and drugs throughout the project area with the exception of the cotton zone where vaccines would be supplied under the project but would be delivered to the pastoralists by existing Government services; (d) provision of credit to those pastoralists who were worst hit by the drought for the purchase of cattle to rebuild their herds and, on a pilot basis, provision of credit for the purchase of immature cattle for steer fattening; (e) management training for Livestock Department senior staff; (f) limited re-equipment of the Farcha Slaughterhouse (ABF) near N'Djamena; vehicles and equipment for the Livestock Department and for SERARHY, and buildings for the Livestock Department; (g) preparation of a land-use plan for the middle Chari Valley; and tsetse eradication programs in the same area and in the cotton zone; and (h) preparation of a follow-up project. Project Implementation and Monitoring 34. The Livestock Department would be mainly responsible for project implementation. This Department is presently involved in the execution of the First Livestock Project and has performed satisfactorily. The Director of the Livestock Department would assume the role of the Project Manager and  - 11 - would be directly responsible for execution of all project activities concern- ing the constitution of associations of pastoralists, animal health and hus- bandry, credit and field staff training. 35. The establishment of associations of pastoralists would require two steps: the geographic delineation of pastoral units based on traditional land-use patterns and formal recognition of their boundaries, and the group- ing of pastoralists in such units into one or more associations, based on traditional social groups with specific rights and obligations. The delinea- tion method has been adequately tested by a pilot study financed under the First Livestock Project and a team composed of Government representatives and consultants would be responsible for the delineation of the units in con- sultation with traditional local authorities. The consultants would be re- cruited possibly from the University of Chad, otherwise internationally. Official recognition would be granted to the associations of pastoralists and their rights and obligations would be specified pursuant to appropriate regulations. Assurances have been obtained that the regulations would be issued by September 30, 1978 and that they would include a model charter for an association of pastoralists (Section 3.05 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). A first draft of the regulations was brought by the Chadian delegation to negotiations and discussed with IDA. 36. Once recognized, each association would be entitled to grazing and watering rights in its area and would also be provided with a package of services comprising: (a) vaccination of cattle against the major conta- gious diseases, (b) field testing and if successful, full-scale vaccination of smallstock against respiratory disease; (c) treatment against worms and ticks; (d) use of mineral licks and feed concentrates; (e) advice on and materials for animal husbandry; (f) advice on range management; and (g) main- tenance and extension of water points. Apart from the vaccines against the major contagious cattle diseases, which would be supplied free, all animal health actions would be paid for by pastoralists after an initial two-year demonstration period during which drugs and feed supplements would be dis- tributed free of charge and mineral licks at 20 percent of costs. Assurances were obtained that full scale vaccination of small stock would be subject to IDA approval subsequent to the completion of field tests (Section 3.06 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). 37. In return for these services, the associations would accept to undertake the maintenance of watering points and to heed the advice of ex- tension workers aimed at better utilization of the range. An assurance was obtained that by March 31, 1979 legislation would be issued by Government, after consultation with IDA, specifying the annual maintenance fee per well, the method of fee collection and the manner in which SERARHY would use the revenue, and that no new or replacement well would be constructed until the beneficiaries had made a cash payment of at least 5 percent of the average estimated cost of such works (Section 4.06 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). 38. The associations would also help, through guarantees, their members (i) who have lost 75 percent or more of their herds as a result of the drought,  - 12 - to obtain interest-free loans under the project to purchase the cattle neces- sary to reconstitute their herds, and (ii) on a pilot basis, to obtain one- year, 15 percent interest loans to cover a maximum of 80 percent of the cost of steers for fattening before resale. These loans would be granted with a collective guarantee from the respective associations of pastoralists, in the form of a written commitment to make a 10 percent cash deposit (20 percent in the case of cattle fattening loans) and to cover any defaults in the re- payment of such loans. For the execution of the credit activities, a new unit would be set up within the Livestock Department, to be managed by a credit officer, who would be assisted by a credit assistant in each of the three regions. In addition, Livestock Department field staff would, after training, assist in the follow-up and supervision of the credit. 39. The training of livestock field staff would be provided using the facilities of the Herder Training Center at Massakory which is to be fully staffed and equipped under a USAID Program. It was agreed that annual con- sultations would be held between Government and IDA on the content, duration and selection criteria for participants and teaching staff for all training related to the project (Section 3.10 of the draft Development Credit Agree- ment). The senior staff training would be provided through the Public Admin- istration College at N'Djamena and supervised by the Project Manager. 40. Through approval of work programs and of withdrawal applications, the Project Manager would also have oversight responsibilities for activi- ties concerning stock watering points and ABF's equipment, the execution of which would be the direct responsi.bilities of SERARHY and the ABF (see para. 24). Assurances were obtained that, by December 31, 1978, the Borrower would undertake a review of SERARHY's legal and administrative status and thereafter consult with IDA on the possibility tco confer on it managerial and financial autonomy on SERARHY (Section 4.05 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). Since the Project Manager would still retain his non-project responsibilities, he would be assisted by a Deputy and aL Chief Accountant who would also assist in the establishment of the credil: programs. The appointment of these two specialists would be a condition of effectiveness (Section 6.01(a) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). The studies for preparing the follow-up project would be made through the Plarning Unit within the Ministry of Rural Development. Cost Estimates and Financial Arrangements 41. Project costs for the four-year period beginning October 1978, are estimated at US$16.1 million, with a foreign exchange component of 60 percent (US$9.7 million). All projeclt goods and services would be imported duty-free as is customary for IDA-financed projects in Chad. The proposed Credit of US$11.5 million would cover 72 percent of project costs. The European Development Fund (EDF) would also contribute US$3.4 million as a grant to be disbursed on a parallel basis with the IDA credit. This grant would cover the costs of tsetse survey and eradication and the project moni- toring unit. Together IDA and EDF would cover 93 percent of total project costs, i.e. the foreign exchange component (US$9.6 million) and 77 percent  - 13 - of the local costs (US$4.7 million). The remaining project costs (US$1.2 million) would be contributed by beneficiaries, mainly for drugs, feed supple- ments and stock watering points. Government would continue to finance the cost of local Livestock Department staff working under the project (US$0.5 million per year) but these costs are not included in project costs. 42. The IDA credit would be channeled through an account to be opened at the Chadian Development Bank. The opening of this account would be a con- dition of effectiveness (Section 6.01(b) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). Since Chad is unable to prefinance project expenditures, IDA would make an initial deposit of US$500,000 in a revolving fund for this project account. Should, however, any disbursement from the project account finance expenditures that are not eligible for financing from the proceeds of the credit, Government would be under obligation to depos . the correspond- ing amount into that account (Section 2.02(e) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). Financial Implication for Government 43. The recurrent costs to be borne by Government after project comple- tion would amount to CFAF 360 million (US$1.5 million) per year in constant prices, for vaccines, operation and replacement of Livestock Department vehi- cles and equipment, and well maintenance. This would be additional to the cost of Livestock Department staff in the project area amounting to US$0.5 million per year, which the Government is presently financing and would con- tinue to finance during the project. Government revenue from the livestock sector net of collection costs was only US$0.7 million in 1975. Of this amount, US$0.5 million was derived from export taxes; this represents only 50 percent of taxes which should have been paid. Government is now keen to increase tax revenue from the livestock sector and has already taken one measure, namely formal cooperation through SOTERA with main exporters of live animals to Nigeria, that will generate increased export tax revenues. In projecting Government's cash flow, it has been assumed that under the changed conditions, effective collection of export taxes on livestock will continue to be only 50 percent of taxes due during the first three years of the project, thereafter rising to 75 percent. The continuation of project activities afterwards would result in an annual net outflow from Government budget of about US$0.8 million but there would by then be scope for increasing revenue from charges for some vaccinations and increased tax rates (see para. 23). Similar measures have just been introduced in other Sahelian countries (Mali and Upper Volta). Procurement 44. Procurement of civil works (estimated cost US$1.1 million), vehi- cles and equipment (estimated cost US$1.7 million) and supplies, namely drugs and materials for wells (estimated cost US$1.6 million), would be through international competitive bidding in accordance with IDA guide- lines in the case of contracts over US$50,000. In the case of contracts of US$50,000 or less but more than US$10,000 procurement would be through  - 14 - competitive bidding in accordance with local procedures acceptable to IDA. For contracts of US$10,000 or less, direct competitive purchasing would be employed. Vaccines (estimated cost US$1.5 million) would be procured from the Farcha Laboratory and feed supplements (estimated cost US$0.5 million) from the Livestock Production Improvement Center; both the Laboratory and the Center are non-profit bodies in N'Djamena, with proven records of qual- ity products at prices substantially below those of imported commercial sup- plies. Well maintenance and construction (estimated cost US$1.6 million net of vehicles, equipment and materials, to be procured as indicated above) would be undertaken by SERARHY under force account, since there is insuf- ficient competition among local contractors and insufficient interest from foreign firms in small contracts for dispersed works. Renovation of abat- toir equipment (estimated cost US$810,000) would be by force account using replacement parts compatible with the existing installation to be procured under procedures acceptable to IDA. The services of internationally-re- cruited staff and of consultants (estimated cost US$1.3 million) would be obtained following procedures acceptable to IDA. Disbursements 45. Each of the main project activities would constitute a disburse- ment category. Two additional catelgories would contain funds for advance for revolving fund and unallocated. The proceeds of the credit would be disbursed against: (i) 100 percent of expenditures for pastoral units and livestock services except for mineral licks for which the credit would only finance 80 percent of total costs in the first and second year; (ii) 100 per- cent of the disbursed amounts for loans and related administrative expendi- tures; (iii) 100 percent of foreign expenditures for ABF's equipment; (iv) 100 percent of expenditures for organization and management other than the project monitoring unit; and (v) 100 percent of the initial deposit for the revolving fund. An amount of US$1.47 million would be unallocated. Benefits and Justification 46. Benefits from livestock services, which is by far the largest com- ponent (with 70 percent of project costs), would accrue to about 100,000 fam- ilies with current average incomes of US$650 for an aggregate cost of US$11.3 million or about US$10 per beneficiary. Incremental annual incomes after ten years, valued at 1977 prices, would accrue to the following three categories of beneficiaries: US$260 for the 25,000 families participating fully in the project and paying well maintenance fees, US$140 for the 10,000 families not paying well fees and US$120 for the 65,000 families receiving only vaccines and drug supplies. The economic rate of return of the livestock services component would exceed 100 percent over 20 years and the incremental return on non-vaccination components of livestock services would be about 35 percent over the same period. Such high returns are a common feature of livestock projects that include a significant vaccination component. If the gross value of total herd is expressed as an annual return on the capital value of the whole herd, this return would increase from 15.4 percent without the project to 18.5 percent ten years after the project started.  - 15 - Risks 47. There are areas in Chad which are intermittently regarded as militarily unsecure and which are therefore considered restricted areas. While project activities which require on-site supervision would not be extended beyond the secure areas until their accessibility is assured, vaccinations and drugs would be delivered in areas inaccessible to IDA staff since such activities could be adequately supervised at main vaccination centers, all of which are accessible. During negotiations it was agreed that, in accordance with normal Bank Group requirements, disbursements would be conditional on security conditions permitting access by IDA representatives to any part of the Project Area for the efficient supervision of the execution of the Project (Section 5.01(c) of the draft Development Credit Agreement). 48. A second risk is that Government may be unable to assure sufficient recurrent cost financing after project completion; this is a familiar risk for projects in Chad but this project provides for periodic review of the scope for new and potentially large cost recoveries through vaccination fees (Section 3.07 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). A third risk is that, whereas sufficient safeguards have been provided to ensure that credits for herd reconstitution would be made to deserving cases, the feasibility of obtaining the required guarantees and loan repayments have not yet been put to the test; the planned gradual implementation of this component would limit the risk. Finally, there is a risk that despite some safeguards, the consti- tution of associations of pastoralists would proceed more slowly than envis- aged. Since the potential economic returns are very large, some delays in implementation should not impair the basic justification of the project. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 49. The draft Development Credit Agreement between the Republic of Chad and the Association and the Report of the Committee provided for in Article V, Section 1 (d) of the Articles of Agreement of the Association are being dis- tributed to the Executive Directors separately. 50. Special conditions of the project are listed in Section III of Annex III of this report. 51. Additional conditions of credit effectiveness would be: (a) open- ing of the Special Account, and (b) the appointment of the Deputy Project Manager and the Chief Accountant (Section 6.01 of the draft Development Credit Agreement). 52. A remedy permitting suspension of disbursement was provided in case any part of the Project Area be inaccessible to IDA representatives as required for the efficient supervision of the execution of the Project (Sec- tion 5.01(c) of the draft Development Credit Agreement).  - 16 - 53. I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Arti- cles of Agreement of the Association. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 54. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed credit. Robert S. McNamara President Attachments March 15, 1978  - 17 - AINEX I TABLE 3APae1o4pgs CHAD - SOClAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET Page 1 of 4 page LAND AREA (THOU KM2) OCAD REFERENCE COUNTRIES (1970) TOTAL 1284.0 MOST RECENT AGRIC. 520.0 1960 197- ESTIMATE MALI BOLIVIA CENTRAL AFRICAN EMPIRE** GNP PER CAPITA (USS) 70.0* 90.0* 120.0/0* 70.0* 220.0* I70.0t ---------_------ --- POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS _-- -- - -- -- -- -_- - -- _- - -- - - -- --- 3. . ./ . . . POPULATION (MID-YR. MILLION) 3.1 3.6 4.1/a 5.1 4.9 1. POPULATION DENSITY PER SQUARE Km. 2.0 3.0 3.0 /a 4.0 4.0 3.0 PER SQ. KM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 6.0 7.0 8.0/a 12.0 17.0 27.0 VITAL STATISTICS CRUDE BIRTH RATE (/THOU, AV) 45.8 44.8 44.0 49.6 44.4 45.4 CRUDE DEATH RATE (/THOU,AV) 27.6 24.6 24.0 27.8 19.7 26.4 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (/THOU) 160.0/a *- *- 120.0 154.0 LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YRS) 33.5 38.0 38.5 37.2 45.3 39.0 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 2.4/b 3.0 2.6 3.3 2.8 2.9 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (%) TOTAL 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.2 URBAN 6.9 7.1 6.4 4.3 4.2 7.2 URBAN POPULATION (% OF TOTAL) 6.7 11.3 13.9 t2.1 32.3 30.1 AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0 TO 14 YEARS 44.7 41.4 41.0/b 49.1 41.9 42.1 15 TO 64 YEARS 52.6 56.0 s5.o/b,c 49.3 54.6 54.8 65 YEARS AND OVER 2.7 2.6 4-0/b.c 1.6 3.5 3.1 AGE DEPENDENCY RATIO 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.3/c .. .s3/a,d o..Ia 1.0/a 0.9/a FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS (CUMULATIVE. THOU) .. .. .. .. USERS (% OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. .. EMPLOYMENT TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOJSAND) 1100.0 .. 1300.0/a 2800.0 2300.0 820.0 LABOR FORCE IN AGRICULTURE (%) 94.0 90.0 .. 91.0 65.0/b 91.0 UNEMPLOYED (x OF LABOR FORCE) .. .. .. .. 16.0 INCOME DISTRIBUTION __---------_-------- % OF PRIVATE INCOME RECOD BY- HIGHEST 5% OF HOUSEHOLDS 21 5/d *- *- *- 36.0/C HIGHEST 20% OF HOUSEHOLDS 44.B/d .. .. .. 59.o/c LOWEST 20% OF HOUSEHOLDS 7.7/d .. .. .. 4.0/c LCWEST 40% OF HOUSEOLDS 1t.3/d *. *- *- 13.O/C DISTRIWBTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP % OWNED BY TOP 10% OF OWNERS .. .. .. % OWNED BY SMALLEST 10% OWNERS .. .. .. .. HEALTH AND NUTRITION POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 1690 0 44400 0 41490.0 2300.0 39120.0 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 5700.0/e,r 5570:0/e 3850.0 2730.0 1280.0/b POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED 820.0/e,g 760.0 .. 1390.0/b 490.0 460.0 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF - CALORIES (% OF REQUIREMENTS) 94.0 89.0 7. 92.0 77.0 96.0 PROTEIN (GRAMS PER DAY) 77.0 73.0 6u. 69.0 46.0 49.0 -OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE .. 33.0/a 18.8 23.0/c 14.0/d 22.0 DEATH RATE (/THOU) AGES 1-4 .. .. .. .. 7.4 EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIO PRIMARY SCHOOL 15.0 32.0 36.0 20.0 71.0 69.0 SECONDARY SCHOOL 0.4 2.0 2.0 3.0 20.0 5.0 YEARS OF SCHOOLING PROVIDED (FIRST AND SECOND LEVEL) 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.0 12.0 10.0 VOCATIONAL ENROLLMENT (% OF SECONDARY) 21.0 10.0 9.0 40.0 13.0/e 12.0 ADULT LITERACY RATE (%) .. 7.0 15.0 .. 40.0 HOUSING PERSONS PER ROOM (URBAN) .. .. .. .. OCCUPIED DWELLINGS WITHOUT PIPED WATER (x) .. .. .. .. ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (% OF ALL DWELLINGS) .. .. .. RURAL DWELLINGS CONNECTED TO ELECTRICITY (x) .. .. .. .. CONSUMPTION RADIO RECEIVERS (PER THOU POP) 2.0 16.0 18.0 12.0 288.0 30.0 PASSENGER CARS (PER THOU POP) 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.0 4.0 4.0 ELECTRICITY (KWH/YR PER CAP) 3.0 12.0 14.0 11.0 160.0 29.0 NEWSPRINT (KG/YR PER CAP) . .. 1.0 - --------- - ----------F - --------------O-R-E----V-E-R- - - SEe NOTES AND DEFINITIONS ON REVERSE  - 18 - Page 2 of 4 pages Nargs Unle otherw-i noted, data for 1960 refer to ny year betwn 1959 nd 1961, for 1970 between 1968 nod 1970, and for Moat Recene Estimate between 1973 sad 1975. GNfP per capita data are baaed on the World bank Atlas mthodology (1974-76 bsis). The Cantoal African mpire has been selented As a1 Objective country for Chad bectase it In also landlocked but at a higher level of develpment. ChAD n1960 Ia 1955-57; tb 191344 African population; Ic Ratio of population under 15 and 65 and over to total labor force; td 1958, population; In 1962; /f Inclodiog aidwive- and assistant nurses ic gaeermnent medical centers; /R Goverenent hospital eetablishbents only. 1970 Ia 1964-66. MOST RECRENT ESIGIATE: /a 1976; lb 1912; Ic Age groups 15-59 and 60 and over reepectively; /d Ratio of population uorder 15 nd 60 and over to total labor force; /e Including midwives and assistnt mIdwive. MALI 1970 /a Ratio of population under 15 Aid 65 and over to tota1 labor forte; /b Gove-mneot hospita1 eatab- lishneata; In 1964-66. BOLIVIA 1970 /a Ratio of population under 15 aid 65 sd over to total labor f Lre; /b Ar perrentage of lobuc force in employment; In Population; 1d 1964-66; /e Between 1965 and 1970 the duration of genarol secondary educatioiieaa reduced fra 6 to 4 ypers, iEdTRAL 1FRICAN 1970 /n Ratio of population under 15 cud 65 snd aver to trtal labor force; /b Including ntdwive- and EbMPIRE assistant urses. R7, February 2, 1978 bNT73T-iOS OF SOCIAL flICATORi L-nd Are (thou k.2) PoP1latior Pet -rsna Pecon - Popolation divided by rusher of practiciog Total Total sarface ure cooprising land area od inland ostars cola sod fenale gradu-te nr e-, 'trained" or "re-ttfid" nurses, a-d Ari.. - Sot rear .astio.ta of saricoirurol scra uoad tnpo-arily or Pern- actiliary personnel ftah trantnr or roperirrc- rertly for crops, pa-ture, -kaet 6 kitchen grder- or to lie pallopuvtio r hosi p al bed - Ptpseltion divided by rusber of hospital beds soetlable Or public and private genera an d sp-rioierd hospital ard CNfP rr -apita (0IS5 - GNP per capita estirtet or currort market pric-n, rebailitario- -euters; earluds rreing horse and rstsblthm,ents fo calculated by s-a cterorsion cethod as World BSsk Atlas (1973-75 basis) ro-todis1 and pesreo-ive roa.r 1960; 1970 and 1975 data. Per ..aito supply o f caores(7 of roiae - Conputad frs energy equivalent of not food Prpplies available in country per rapita pee day; Poopltlion sod vital statistic: avilable n-rplias cmprtise danestir prod-cton, ipocrt less erponts, nod Populatio, (rid-year n.ilion) or of July first: if rot avoilshle, aversa. chargoR in rock; ret supplier enolude anfans feed, seads, qusttiss aed of Iwo cod-yeare -tinatete; 160, 1970 and 1975 data, y F60 pr.c toopeing and lasse In distributive; requiresents were e-tirated by FAOb hoard on phyailgi-aI.. teds far norml activity and health cassid- Poo1la-io, deritry - pe- .,uare k1 - mfd-yeat population per square -kilnt-r ntis0 anvir-fel tamperetur, body -eight, age and se. di-ribhtions or (100 heIcaron) of cr101 area population, and alloving 10 foe .aste at hbu-ehold level. ForMlation denalty - one 50tame koc of agricl esd - C-papted as abore for Per canitas*upply of Protein (arson pee days - Protein content of per capita sgrtraltural land anly arc aupply of food per day; rat supply of food is defined as sboye; esqui,- -tnoc for a11 coontries eesbhlihbed by USDA Econoric Reses.ch Service. Vital statistics prooide for a ninlnern allerance of 60 erans of total protein pee day, and Ceodo birth rota per thnousnd averaen - Annua live births pee thr-and of 20 grea= of animal and pulse protein, of ohich 10 grca should be animal old-yost population; tnn-year arithnetic eversananding in 1960 and 1973, proctin; these stadard. are lese than those of 75 grams of totel protein red firs-year average ending in 1975 for a-st raoont e-stsie. and 23 gron- of soial protein as an-avarag far the -vnId, proposed by F7O Croda death reta Per thrus.d, avedsac - Annual deaths pee thrasand of aid-year in the Third Wald Food Survey. population; ten-year aeithnetio aver-ges .ndieg in 1960 and 1970 and five- Pee capita protein supply frqm *anial ond pulse - Protein supply of food year anerags ending to 1975 foe non ireceot estimate. dorived rm- an.Ials ond poLses in gca pet dsy. Infant _ttalict rate (Ithou1 - An-ual d-stha of infants ander one ye-r of age Dsath rate (/thaos Ran 1-4 - An.ual death. per thousand in age group 1-4 per thonnand live birto. yeats, to childeno in this age group; snggested .. 5n indicator of lIfe enpeotanoy at birth (free - Aver-ge nc-b-oat pfatrs of life renamingi at nalnutritio_ birth; usually five-year averages ending in 1960, 1970 and 1975 for develop- fng cau_trieo Edorstito Gross reproduction tarn - overage nusber of live daughters a wosan will bear Adjsted enrollment ratio - prtairy school - Enro.lsent of a11 ages as per- in her urinal reproduooriv periad if ah. erperlenena present sge-epsoific centsge of pdinary nobaul-age population; inludes ohildren aged 6-11 years Oe_tility rates; esoolLy firs-year avrtsgaso ding in 1960, 1970 and 1975 but adjaated far ditferent lengths of prtimsr adoration; for cn,ntnie with for developing carotties. oiversal education esrolma- nt may eroed li0t since s pupils are belir Ppoplation aroveth rare (ts - tota1 - Canpound sonual geasth rates of mid-year or ahote the officil school age. populscion fIc 1950-Al, ;86i-70 and 1970-75. Adjoated -nraLnet ratio - secodary School - Cuspoitd as above; secondary Population arneth rate (f) - urban - C-Pputed likm gerth rote of total educ tion teq.irs at Ieast four years of appevd primay i-ttion; population; different dofinitioma of urban areas nay affect .ompatability of pra-idas feners .. vocatioeal or teacher training i-t-terions for pupils data among atmtries. of 12 to 17 years of age tarrespondann courses are generally ecluded. Orhan population (I7 of total - Ratio of anban to trtal popolatici; diffessrt Geara af schooling Ieevided (first cd se.cd levels; - Total years of dsfinitioaa of orb.s areas may affset c-npar-bility of data a-ong couctrir aahoalimg; at secondary level, voosotonal -otruocion Rty be partially or Me aenotre fprcst5 -Childew. (0-14 y. ) -aiag-age (15-64 peace), orpist.ly asldad. a-faZ;dnj V-i lisil-ild end retired f65 years en ver) perne-tag- of md- ppltioo. thfh ;e1r.17mt - t iude pn itld er An _epnenyto i - Ratio of PaPolatin order 15 and 65 sod over to thtnn dnpart-ete of secndary i-sticutloonh. of gas 15 thtrogh 64 A4dult literary tare (71 - Lirate ud.Lt- (able to read and riti) a- per- icnni eroenyrai - Ratio of population order 15 and 65 cod ove to. retag of total a dult papolation sned 15 years ondput the labor faor in a8e gr-op of 15-64 years. Family peasning -aacnpcpors (rnulative. ibou - famalC-ice nusbhr of accptrrs rooing oft bith-rotrl dovires under auspices of national f_aily plreniog pr,o9ram Petronaoner raP (urban; - Average nbner of per-on- per roan in a-capind sia- I_onP, ion. -onvetianal dwellings to orb. as -rea; d.anlitogs -e lds non-ps- -no Family nlanocin - users a of narrird seaens - PerotrsIs af m-aried .o-a- of ste-octaree aedune piId parts. cd aing age(- er) r u birt-otol deis to nl mried Occupied d-lie tithout pie d water ( - Ocupid convetioal dwelling s i.yo Or same ago group, in urban and nrurl areas uithourt f-ids or "o"side piped aster facilities B'viovpNet ea percentage of a11 fenopled dwellings. Ttal labo farep (ta nd- ; - ecmicaly active persona, isloding IamCd lc ei i iving q as rec of total dwLling in urban and fune ad -oenpiyd bu 1oolding housewives, endsnts, err; definitions -1a aen Eu v-rious c-ultrfes are boa cana-ableE Labor farce in agricultore ('13 - Oorituitaral isber farce (tea eezcing, fas-estry, RrLdwellings only. t lcriiv()- optd uaoe o ua hunting and fiahig) en pertentage af tatal Isabr fbre Unenpioped f7 of lebar farces - VUn-plo1ed are asually defined an persona vh. Corprction are able andrilis tacke ajb, put of a job on a given day, ,ai-ad out Radorasies(oetorpp All typam at reaivera inn radie brr-dc-sc of a job, and trg work f Hra c d iu n Pid not A . din one ts f PoP tion; eld unlicnd rei nek; sp noat be nanprsble betwee countries den to different delil,e n r--nrfe and in year when -geiscraionfa -dia ses a I _Ern; of uamPloyed and purts of data, e.g., esployent affi-e statistics, aaple data far recent y-ara ay not be cnrparable since eoat rountria bo;lihed survys. aneunaryuraplopeet irsorn-- lnars fog. Pase.r. ae. on. ho.on Pa.... ger oar -apriss motor cars seating jm ditrbution - Percengtag.f private inoce (both in cas h and kiod.~ lesta eight persons; onldna anb.lance, hearse end military receivd by richest 5I, richest 20%, poorest 2e , ond pr bt ed p 4% of hmse- Vehicles. odsd. Elctriity fkwn/vr see asp) - Annual co---eption of iduatrial, c-erai, Diattib.tino, of ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Pablic and private sI1etricity in kilewtt hare per capita, generaly ndscribation of land awsensoie~Pe tog- of land -.d by weL2ltbts iIo rt base h d on prod-tri data, wit-o allesne e a lasses in grids but *ilv- and pretes 10 or land uses.Sng Err import.soad spoets of electrtcy. he-lth and Nutrition Newsprint (kg/ye one cans - Per Os pica a-noal tonsanetion is kilogram- ;i1rd, -d N~~~~~~~~~~~~tliti- ~~~e timtd _tamdEsatit, prdoduion pi.a net impats ot _ uepri_r Population per phyeiciss - Population divided by ntber of prateicing physicians vuelified fipn a nedical s-hool at university level  - 19 - ANNEX I rage 3 of 4 pages ECONOMIC INDICATORS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1976 ANNUAL RATE OF GRO'XH (%, constant prices) US$ Mln. % 1960 -65 1965 -70 1970-76 GNP at Market Prices 492.93 100.0 o.6 1.9 0.8 Gross Domestic Investment 75.48 15.3 -3.5 9.3 2.4 Gross National Saving - 0.02 Current Account Balance - 75.30 _ 15.3 -3.6 2.1 -9:2 Eports of Goods, NFS 139.40 28.3 3.2 6.2 4.5 Imports of Goods, NFS 228.60 46.4 5.6 4.3 12.0 OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 197 Value Added Labor ForceY V. A. Per Worker U5$ Ml. . US $ Agriculture 248.13 50.0 Industry 73.49 15.0 Services 173.67 35.0 Unallocated GDP Total/Average .___.__ 495.29 100.0 100.0 CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCE /2 of GDP (Million US$) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1971 1976 1971 - 1976 Current Receipts 54.2 52.0 46.8 56.3 63.5 62.4 16.3 12.6 14.3 Current Expenditure 64.6 59.8 58-1 73.3 69. 80.6 19.4 16.3 17:3 Current Surplus - - 7.8 -11.3 -17.0 - .3 -i -3.1 - 3.7 - 3.0 Capital Expenditures 3.8 3.5 4.9 0.2 1.4 0.0 1'1 0.0 o.6 External Assistance (net) 9.4 4.1 2.7 3.2 0.4 11.3 2.8 2.3 1.3 )VNE!Y CREDIT and PRICES/2 19 71 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 (Tllion US outstanding end period) Money and Quasi Money 40.1 40.7 41.7 62.3 69.6 81.9 Bank credit to Public Sector 5.2 9.3 12.3 14.0 10.5 17.8 Bank Credit to Private Sector 40.3 39.8 46.6 53.9 87.4 75.8 (Percentages or Index Numbers) Money and Quasi Money as % of GDP 12.1 11.5 12.0 16.5 15.6 16.5 Consumer Price Index (1970 - 100) /3 106.2 109.3 115.2 128.2 148.3 153.3 Annual percentage changes int Consumer Price Index 6.2 2.9 5.4 11.3 15.7 3.4 Bank credit to Public Sector 4.0 78.8 31.2 13.8 -25.0 69.5 Bank credit to Private Sector -15.0 - 1.2 17.1 15.7 62.2 - 1.3 NOTE: All conversions to dollars in this table are at the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered. I/ Total labor force; unemployed are allocated to sector of their normal occupation. "Unallocatede consists mainly of unemployed morkers seeking their first job. To reflect changesin the real values of financal flows, a constant exchange rate of CFA Francs 240/us$ is assumed in these tables. ] General Price Index not available for Chad. not available not applicable  - 20 - ANNEX I Page 4 of 4 pages TRADE PADMENTS AND CAPITAL FLOWS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS MEIRCHANDISE EXPORTS 1971 1976 Average 1971-1976 l9L .1975 197 6 US $ Mln % US $ Mln US $ Mln % (Millions US $) Exports of Goods, NFS 75.0 118.5 139,4 Cotton 19.O 45 84.o 83 36.8 61 Imports of Goods, NFS 100.0 237.0 228,,6 Others 23.3 55 16.7 17 23.3 39 Resource Gap (deficit = I) -25 7 - 5 Total 412.3 100 100.7 1070 M-T1 100 Workers remittances 0.7 -0.9 -1.3 Interest payments (net) -1.8 ) - 2.3 -0.9 Other Factor Payments (net) -0.4 ) -1.1 Net Transfers 1.3 9.3 17.2 Balance on Current Account -~ 9 -112.4 775.*3 Direct Foreign Investment 0.3 20.3 26.8 EXTERNAL DEBT, DECEMBER 31. 1976 Net MLT Borrowing Disbursements 4.5 ,. . US $ Mn Amortization 1.8 Subtotal 2.7 5.3 11.2 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 250.0 Capital Grants 28.9 53.3 68.4 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt _ Other Capital (net) 4.1 o.6 -8.0 Total outstanding including undisbursed 050.O Other items n.e.i 0.7 0.7 -1.,7 (of which dis\wrsed) (95.4) Increase in Reserves (+) I. -28.9 24.8 DEBT SERVICE RATIO for 1976- ' Gross Reserves (end year) 11.2 3.1 23.2 Net Reserves (end year) 8.2 -19.0 4.1 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 9.0 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt Fuel and Related Materials Total outstanding including undisbursed Imports of which: PetroleLm. 10.2 14.422/ . Exports of which: Petroleum . . . IBRD/IDA LENDING, (latest month) (Million US $): RATE OF EXCHANGE tCFAF/US$) BRD IDA Outstanding & Disbursed . 22.0 1971: 277 1974: 240 Undisbursed . 29.1 1972: 256 1975: 214 Outstanding incl. Undisbursed . 511 1973: 230 1976: 239 l/ Ratio of Debt Service to Exports of Goods and Non-Eactor Services. / Staff estimate / Unless otherwise indicated not available not applicable January 6, 1978  - 21 - ANNEX II Page 1 of 6 THE STATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN CHAD A. STATEMENT OF IDA CREDITS (January 31, 1978) Credit Number Year Borrower Purpose ------------US$ Million----------- (less cancellations) (undisbursed) 125 1968 Chad Highway maintenance 4.1 0* 126 1969 Chad Education 2.2 /1 - 251 1971 Chad Education 2.7 /2 0.2 309 1972 Chad Livestock 2.2 0.1 445 1973 Chad Drought Relief 2.0 0 ** 489 1974 Chad Irrigation 7.5 1.7 489-1 1976 Chad Irrigation 8.0 8.0 490 1974 Chad Second Highway 3.5 1.0 592 1975 Chad Lake Chad Polders 5.0 3.4 664 1976 Chad Rural Projects Fund 12.0 11.2 739 /4 1977 Chad Sahelian Zone Project 1.9 1.9 Total now held by IDA 51.1 /3 27.5 Total undisbursed 27.5 /L Includes supplementary credit of US$0.4 million. /2 Includes supplementary credit of US$0.5 million. /3 Prior to exchange rate adjustment. /4 Not yet effective. * 16,314.94 undisbursed. ** 23,919.28 undisbursed. B. STATEMENT OF IFC INVESTMENTS (January 31, 1978) Nil.  _ 22 - ANNEX II Page 2 of 6 C. PROJECTS IN EXECUTION 1/ Credit No. 125 Highway Maintenance Project: US$4.1 million Credit of August 14, 196,3; Effective Date: February 11, 1969; Closing Date: June 30, 1978. The project consists of (a) a 5-year program for highway main- tenance including technical assistance, the procurement of equipment and materials, repair shop extension, training of operators and mechanics, and establishment of traffic data col:Lection system; and (b) feasibility studies, and if found justified, detailed engineering for the Djermaya-Djimtilo road. The project was practically completed on December 31, 1973 but two of its components were not implemented: the training program was dropped at the Government's request because the cost of the consultants' proposals ex- ceeded the amount available under the credit. However, a comprehensive train- ing program is included in the Second Highway Project. The feasibility study for improvement of the Djermaya-D-jimtilo road was completed; however, detailed engineering found premature, has been deferred due to low traffic volume. The project closing date has nonetheless been postponed to allow disbursements of available credit funds to complement the training program being carried out under the Second Highway Project. Credit No. 126 Education Project: US$2.2 million Credit of August 29, 1968 (as amended)jEffective Date: December 31, 1968; Closing Date: Closed (fully disbursed). The project consists of (a) the construction and equipping of a teacher training college at Moundou and (b) the construction and equipping of an agricultural technician training center at N'Djamena (transferred to Sarh under Credit 251-CD). The teacher training college has been completed and put into opera- tion and the credit fully disbursed in the first quarter of 1976 about two and a half years behind schedule. Reasons for the delay have been (a) delay in reaching agreement on each stage of design; (b) the need to revise the design and negotiate with the lowest bidder because of cost overruns; and (c) the need to amend the Credit Agreement to resolve the financial problems created by the US dollar fluctuation and internal budgetary difficulties. However, this college will not be able to operate in the foreseeable future because of inadequate budgetary funds to finance recurrent costs and lack of 1/ These notes are designed to inform the Executive Directors regarding the progress of projects in execution, and in particular to report any problems which are being encountered, and the action being taken to remedy them. They should be read in this sense, and with the under- standing that they do not purport to present a balanced evaluation of strengths and weaknesses in project execution.  - 23 - ANNEX II Page 3 of 6 technical assistance. An IDA mission is scheduled to visit Chad and dis- cuss with the Government a plan for rendering this college operational. Credit No. 251 Second Education Project: US$2.7 million Credit of June 16, 1971 (as amended); Effective Date: December 28, 1971; Closing Date: December 31, 1978. The project consists of (a) the construction and equipping of a secondary technical school at N'Djamena; (b) supply of complementary equip- ment for the existing vocational training center at N'Djamena; (c) the transfer of the agricultural technician training center, financed under Credit 126-CD, from N'Djamena to Sarh; and (d) a study of young farmers' training schemes. The project is almost totally completed about 12 months behind schedule due to (a) delay in reaching agreement on the educational and architectural programs for the technical secondary school; (b) delay in preparation of equipment lists; and (c) the need to amend the Credit Agree- ment to resolve the financial problems created by the fluctuation of the US dollar and internal budgetary difficulties. The new agricultural tech- nician training center and the secondary technical school are not yet open. It is unlikely that either of these institutions will operate this year be- cause of difficulties similar to those outlined for the teacher training college (Cr. 126-CD), namely inadequate financing and lack of technical assistance. The same measures to be taken to render this last institution operational would also be extended to the agricultural technician training center and the secondary technical school. The Government has also received an offer for technical assistance from the Federal Republic of Germany. Credit No. 309 Livestock Development Project: US$2.2 million Credit of May 31, 1972; Effective Date: November 28, 1972; Closing Date: June 30, 1978. The project comprises: (a) the construction of 18 new pastoral wells and the repair and rehabilitation of 20 existing wells in the Batha prefecture; (b) the establishment of two well maintenance units, including their operating costs for the first two years; and (c) special studies carried out by a Livestock Development Unit (LDU) established with UNDP assistance. Although the credit became effective in November 1972, project implementation was begun only following the Board's decision to finance 100 percent of project costs net of duties and taxes, and to establish a revolving account, which became effective in March 1974. Well construction and repairs were completed by end of 1976. Well maintenance units are in operation. Most of the studies, including water extraction and livestock taxation are completed. Field works on the remaining studies namely the  - 24 - ANNEX II Page 4 of 6 identification of pastoral groups and sheep and goats are also completed. UNDP did not extend its assistance to LDU, due to unsatisfactory results and this unit is now integrated in the Livestock Services. Credit No. 445 Drought Relief Fund Project: US$2.0 million Credit of December 7, 1973; Effective Date: March 22, 1974; Closing Date: December 31, 1978. The project is designed to help people in areas affected by the drought to re-establish their productive base; it comprises the following eight subprojects: equipment, workshops, technical assistance and operating costs for underground water development; equipment and operating costs for "Genie Rural", "Water Survey Bureau", and "Land Development Department"; equipment, buildings and operating costs for the Livestock Service; construc- tion of warehouses; equipment and operating costs for a vegetable growing pilot scheme; and equipment and operating costs for the Planning Department. Physical execution of the pr,oject is satisfactory, with all of the eight subprojects completed or nearly completed. Credit No. 489 Sategui-Deressia Irrigation Project:-/ US$15.5 million Credit of October 7, 1976; Effective Date: February 9, 1977; Closing Date: June 30, 1980. The project covers the development of 11,000 ha in the Sategui Deressia plain, 5,000 ha inside polders under controlled flooding and 6,000 ha outside polders under improved agricultural practices. The whole area will be exploited by small farmers and the main crop is rice. It includes (a) the construction by force account of an intake on the right bank of the Logone River, a main canal, polders, feeder roads, buildings, a rice mill and storage facilities, (b) the strengthening of the project authority, (c) applied agricultural research, and (d) intensive in-service training. During the first dry season period (1977) earthmoving equipment for project construc- tion has been delivered as scheduled and implementation of earthworks was carried out satisfactorily despite a general shortage of fuel in Chad. The total polderized area amounts to 830 ha and yields are expected to exceed appraisal forecasts. Other activities such as the use of labor for irriga- tion works and building construction are carried out satisfactorily. Credit No. 490 Second Highway Project: US$3.5 million Credit of June 28, 1974; Effective Date: March 7, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1980. The project comprises (a) a five-year program for improvement and maintenance of feeder roads in cotton growing areas; (b) pre-investment 1/ Including the supplementary credit of US$8.0 million approved on August 10, 1976.  - 25 - ANNEX II Page 5 of 6 studies for about 120 km in cotton export routes; (c) a two-year training program for DPW staff; (d) technical assistance for the reorganization of the road transport industry; (e) a two-year traffic count on about 2,000 km of the most important roads; (f) reconditioning of ferry boats and their interim maintenance over a three-year period; and (g) feasibility study for replace- ment of ferry boats and improvement of dock facilities. Project implementation is about ten months behind schedule. Pre- investment studies were completed. However, detailed engineering for the roads studies were not implemented as one road was not economically justified and the second was contingent upon construction of a soap factory which was then cancelled by the Government. Because of higher than anticipated rate of inflation, the delay in project implementation, and the increased requirement for construction materials, a cost overrun is expected. The Association and the Government agreed to include in the proposed Third Highway Project about US$250,000 required to complete the five-year maintenance program. Credit No. 592 Lake Chad Polders Project: US$5 million Credit of November 26, 1975; Effective Date: February 26, 1976; Closing Date: December 31, 1980. The project comprises rehabilitation or construction of irrigation and drainage networks of two polders of about 1,200 ha, to permit cotton and wheat cultivation. Although the project initially suffered a one-year delay because the expatriate consultants were not appointed on time, this delay is pro- gressively being reduced and should be made up by the time the second polder developed under the project is completed. Most contracts have been awarded and on this basis, project costs are estimated to be within appraisal esti- mates. Building on this initial success, Government is exploring with other external donors the financing of the contiguous Mamdi polder (1,600 ha), which would bring the total area under polder development to 2,800 ha, and thus create an important nucleus for development in that part of the country. Credit No. 664 Rural Projects Fund: US$12.0 million of December 8, 1976; Effective Date: March 2, 1977; Closing Date: March 31, 1980. The project comprises seven subprojects: (a) small-scale irrigation, (b) warehouses, (c) pastoral wells, (d) village water supplies, (e) feeder road improvements, (f) animal feed and poultry marketing, (g) bottomland development as well as a management unit. The management unit is now fully staffed and key personnel have been engaged for all subprojects. Execution of the work program for 1976/77 has suffered from delayed effectiveness but the project is now fully opera- tional.  - 26 - ANNEX II Page 6 of 6 Credit No. 739 Sahelian Zone Project: US$1.9 million of September 28, 1977: Effective Date: March 15, 1978; Closing Date: June 30, 1980. The project comprises fourteen subprojects leading to (a) increased development of crop farming, (b) sustained and improved animal health services, (c) maintenance of water supply, (d) expansion of forestry activities, and (e) increase in Government's capacity to deliver transport services. The finali- zation of the cofinancing agreement by the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) is a condition of effectiveness; this condition has not yet been met.  - 27 - ANNEX III SUPPLEMENTARY PROJECT DATA SHEET Section I: Timetable of Key Events a) Time taken by country to prepare project: 18 months b) Project prepared by Government and IDA: c) First time documents presented to IDA: September 1976 d) Departure of Appraisal Mission: February 25, 1977 e) Negotiations completed in Washington: February 24, 1978 f) Planned date of effectiveness: June 30, 1978 Section II: Special IDA Implementation Actions None. Section III: Special Conditions 1. Appointment of the deputy Project Manager and Chief Accountant (condition of effectiveness, para. 40). 2. Opening of the Special Account (condition of effectiveness, para. 42). 3. Government would deposit in the Special Account any amount disbursed therefrom and found by IDA to be ineligible for financing under credit (para. 42). 4. Government would by September 30, 1978 authorize by legis- lation the prefect to grant official recognition to the associations of pastoralists (para. 35). 5. Full scale vaccination of small stock would be subject to IDA approval (para. 36). 6. After consultation with IDA, Government would issue Legisla- tion on well maintenance fee (para. 37). 7. Government would by December 31, 1978 review SERARHY's status with a view to confering to it managerial and financial autonomy (para. 40). 8. Disbursements could be suspended if any part of the Project Area becomes inaccessible to IDA staff for efficient super- vision of the execution of the Project (para. 47).   I BROD 13103 'a. IS' 20' ~~~~~~~~~~~7-22' 1977 N! ER '47* I "-------~~~~~ 'N,,~~ rho ( SECONDFLIESTCK ROJE / I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~O (~~~~~~t? ILT /~~~~~~~~~ tN C ~47 , *0015 'ftP \ 6' ""' AeSkrvta <rE-EOUWMESWO~~~~B A T H AC Ij , :OESE LY0000 F=F *~~~~~~~~~~~7 A\/ 7 N Ni N/~~~N r4hOU' A " /"'R CANTON /' &i,,- C /~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ j2- ' ~~~~~~~~~NDJAMENA ",, RIMorc!e1 - 0 04 n RI --c'MONGED~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~(I500550 C H A I-,JCNOOelcke$ORAYA08 0E A~~~ ~~~~~~~~ A N 0< oIro.cS'SFTI 0 1111INIA~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~F0 15 0 SL r~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~K C $ \~~~~~~~~&U$554t 1 .. N~~~~~~~~M1 TMA N~~~~~~' K. *'c'( j~~~~~~. *01 L~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~L .x 7 A~~~A O. O.~~~~~~~~~~~~ Occ S 0101/I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ,Ao -9,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ - ~~~~ILR E~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~0' FOA~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~c S afWrO rS / r CA~AROO4/ r" tiKaIaaooEMeoo