Tanzania - Sixth Education Project

Document of F xr The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No.2141-TA STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT A SIXTH EDUCATION PROJECT IN THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA November 23, 1978 Education Projects Division Eastern Africa Regional Office This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of July 1, 1978) US$1 = T. Shs. 8.00 T. Shs. 1 = US$0.125 (The Tanzania Shilling is officially valued at a fixed rate of T. Shs. 9.66 to the SDR. The US Dollar/Tanzania Shilling Exchange rate is there- fore subject to change on a day-to-day basis. Conversions in this report were made at US$1.00 to T. Shs. 8.00, which is close to the recent average exchange rate.) MEASURES 1 Meter (m) 2 = 3.28 Feet 1 Square Meter (m ) = 10.76 Square Feet GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA FISCAL YEAR July 1 to June 30  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT A SIXTH EDUCATION PROJECT IN THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA Table of Contents Page No. BASIC DATA GLOSSARY I. THE EDUCATION SECTOR IN TANZANIAN DEVELOPMENT .... ....... 1 Education Policy and Strategy ..... ...................... 1 Education Structure and Management ...................... 2 Primary Education ....................................... 3 Secondary Education ...... ......................... 4 Post Secondary Education ................................ 5 Financing and Cost of Education ..... .................. 7 II. MEETING MANPOWER NEEDS: TOWARD SKILL SELF-SUFFICIENCY .. 8 Basis of Current Manpower Planning ...................... 8 Projected Manpower Needs ................................ 9 Projected Manpower Supply and Skill Shortages .......... . 10 III. BANK GROUP EXPERIENCE AND LENDING STRATEGY IN THE SECTOR 11 Past Experience and Lessons Learned .................. ... 11 Lending Strategy . .................... . ................ 13 Priority Areas for Lending ............. .. ............... 13 IV. THE PROJECT ............................................. 15 Objectives .............................................. 16 Project Items .......................................... 17 Vocational and Technical Education ................ ... 17 Management and Accountancy Training ................ ... 18 Project Related Studies ...... ......................... 20 Project Monitoring and Evaluation .................. ... 20 This report is based on the findings of a mission which visited Tanzania in April 1978 and included Mr. N. Colletta (general educator), Mr. R. Byron (technical educator), Mr. M. Giuseppi (architect), Mr. P. Jones (economist) of the Bank and Mr. R. Loken (management and business education specialist, consultant). The project was further reviewed in the field by Mr. Giuseppi in July 1978 and Mr. Colletta in November 1978. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  Page No. V. PROJECT COST AND FINANCING .............................. 21 Project Cost ................................. ........... ..*.*..... 21 Customs Duties and Taxes ..... ....*............*.*..... 23 Contingency Allowances .... ...................... ....... 24 Foreign Exchange Component ............. ................. 24 Financial Plan ............................................ O#....... 24 VI. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION, PROCUREMENT AND DISBURSEMENT .... 25 Implementation .......................................... 25 Architectural/Engineering Services ...................... 26 Sites ................................................... 0...... 26 Building Industry ....................................... 26 Procurement and Disbursement ............... ............. 26 VII. BENEFITS AND RISKS ...................................... 27 Consolidation and Qualitative Improvement ............... 28 Access and Equity ..... .................................. . 28 Critical Skills Development ............................. 28 Institution Building ................ .. .................. 28 Risks .............................................................. 29 VIII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION ................... 29 ANNEX 1 TABLES AND CHARTS Table 1 Past and Projected Enrollments in Public and Private Schools, 1967-1990. Table 2 Past and Projected Government Recurrent Expenditure on Education and Training. Table 3 Expenditures on Education and Training in Relation to Total Government Expenditures. Table 4 Additional Manpower Requirements by Skill Category 1975-1990. Table 5 Additional Requirements of Accountancy Skills and Craftsmen of Skill Category C, 1975-1990. Table 6 Meeting Manpower Requirements for the Modern Sector. Table 7 Supply/Demand--Vocational Instructors and Industrial Trainers. Table 8 Accountancy Skills: Expected Annual Outputs by Year and by Institution. Table 9 Summary of Enrollment and Estimated Project Costs. Table 10 Comparative Education Indicators. Table 11 Estimated Schedule of Disbursement. Chart 1 Structure of Education, 1978. Chart 2 Educational Pyramid. Chart 3 Implementation Schedule. ANNEX 2 SELECTED DOCUMENTS AND DATA AVAILABLE IN THE PROJECT FILE ANNEX 3 KEY INDICATORS FOR SUPERVISION MAP IBRD 13657R  UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA BASIC DATA (excluding Zanzibar) Population (est.) (1976) 15.1 million Population growth rate (1970-75) 2.7% p.a. Wage and salary employment (1976) 457,000 Per Capita Income (1977) US$200 equivalent Education Enrollments Public Schools Primary education (1978) (Standards 1-7) - enrollment 2,970,000 - ratio of enrolled to age group (7-13 yrs) 93.1% Lower secondary education (1977) (Forms 1-4) - enrollment 38,408 - ratio of enrolled to age group (14-17 yrs) 2.7% Upper secondary education (1977) (Forms 5-6) - enrollment 3,747 - ratio of enrolled to age group (18-19 yrs) 0.6% University of Dar es Salaam - enrollment (1976) 2,190 Private Schools Ratio of private primary enrollment (1978) to public 1.0% primary enrollment Ratio of private secondary enrollment (1977) to public 45.6% secondary enrollment Education Expenditures Government expenditure on education as percentage of total Government expenditure (1976/77) Capital 5.2% Recurrent 12.2% Total 17.4% as a percentage of GDP 6.6%   GLOSSARY BER Basic Economic Report. CIDA Canadian International Development Agency. DANIDA Danish International Development Agency. DSA Dar-es-Salaam School of Accountancy, established in 1973, a middle level accountancy training institute under the Ministry of Finance and Planning. ESR Education for Self-Reliance. IDM Institute of Development Management, established in 1972, a high level management and accountancy training institute under the Ministry of Manpower Development. IFM Institute of Finance Management, established in 1972, a high level finance training institute under the Ministry of Finance and Planning. ITC Instructor Training Center, a proposed institution under the NVTP to train vocational instructors for the NVTP's Vocational Training Centers, among other institutions. MANTEP Management Training for Education Personnel, a proposed national program of in-service training under the Ministry of National Education for education officers and other administrative personnel. MOE Ministry of National Education. NORAD Norwegian Agency for International Development. NVTD National Vocational Training Division, a division of the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare responsible for administering the National Vocational Training Program. NVTP National Vocational Training Program, established in 1966 under the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare, a program responsible for the provision of training institutions to meet the demand for skilled workers and for development of mechanisms for regulating and upgrading the quality of these workers. PPS Project Planning Section, the operational body established within the Ministry of National Education, responsible for the implementa- tion and monitoring of education projects including those carried out under IDA credits. PPTS Post Primary Technical Sections (approximately 275), workshop facilities often located near to primary schools and providing two- year practical programs to prepare primary school leavers for employment. SIDA Swedish International Development Authority. UPE Universal Primary Education. USAID United States Agency for International Development. VTC Vocational Training Center, a training institution under the Min- istry of Labor and Social Welfare NVTP/NVTD offering a four-year skill training course; one-year resident instruction and three years combination of sandwich courses and on-the-job training.   UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA APPRAISAL OF A SIXTH EDUCATION PROJECT I. THE EDUCATION SECTOR IN TANZANIAN DEVELOPMENT Education Policy and Strategy 1.01 Since Independence (1961) Tanzania has turned to education with an increasing conviction that human resource development forms an integral part of national development. As may be seen in a brief review of the country's three five-year plans, education has evolved not merely to provide skills for the modern sector but also to mould the economic and political institutions of the entire nation. 1.02 Tanzania's First Five-Year Development Plan (1964-69) focused on rapid economic growth. It gave priority to self-sufficiency in skilled manpower by 1980 and called for a comprehensive education system for adults and children as soon as financially possible. This conventional development strategy swiftly changed when by the end of the First Plan period the Arusha Declaration adopted a socialist ideology and a development strategy based on self-reliance. Following the Arusha Declaration, in 1967 President Nyerere sharply criticized elitism, isolation from rural areas, and lack of practical experience in formal education and laid down the guidelines for reform in his policy of Education for Self-Reliance (ESR). Priorities shifted to favor basic education for the entire population. Education content was to be aimed at greater productivity in the rural environment where approximately 90% of the Tanzanian people live. To this end, farming and practical subjects were introduced in schools so as to become revenue producing and better integrated with the community. 1.03 The Arusha Declaration and ESR supplied the conceptual foundations for the education aspects of the Second Five-Year Plan (1969-74). Originally, Universal Primary Education (UPE) was to be achieved by 1989. 1/ The Govern- ment and local organizations were required to develop adult and nonformal education programs. In this context, the primary school was to become a "community center," a focal point for meeting the educational needs of the whole community, rather than a detached institution to be used solely for the education of children. In addition, a national literacy program was launched to eradicate illiteracy. By the end of 1975, cumulative enrollments in literacy classes had reached 5.2 million or nearly 90% of the estimated number of adult illiterates. Despite this focus on UPE and mass-oriented education, previous manpower goals were not abandoned. Secondary education was to be expanded as justified by manpower requirements, and the target of reaching self-sufficiency in skilled manpower by 1980 was retained. 1/ The UPE objective (para 1.04) was advanced and modified to enroll by November 1977, 100% of those children who were between the ages of 7 and 12 in November 1975, plus all children reaching the age of 7 after 1975.  - 2 - 1.04 The Tanganyika African National Union (TANU) 1/ Party Executive Committee met in Musoma in late 1974 to review the successes and failures of Tanzania's education system. The resulting Musoma Resolution recom- mended that UPE be achieved by November 1977. It also recommended that university candidates engage in two years of work experience and receive satisfactory evaluation from both their employer and the TANU Party before continuing to higher education. Other recommendations stressed existing educational policies of diversified secondary education, practical skills, and self-reliance activities. 1.05 The Third Five-Year Plan (1975-80) indicates that the basic direc- tion in education for the current planning period remains similar to that charted by ESR and the Musoma Resolution. The stated goals of the Plan are: (i) to enable every child of school age to have a place in a primary school by November 1977; (ii) to change the trend of secondary and teacher education to: (a) place more emphasis on technical and commercial subjects so that education will be more related to the work the student will do after completion; (b) introduce teacher training into secondary schools in order to enable all students who attend these schools to teach in primary schools as needed; and (c) add additional places for girls in secondary schools; (iii) to enable each Tanzanian to read and write and functionally use this knowledge in his daily life; and (iv) to continue the effort to achieve the goal of self-sufficiency in qualified and competent local manpower by 1980. Education Structure and Management 1.06 The structure of the formal education system (Annex 1, Chart 1) consists of primary education (Standards 1-7), lower secondary education (Forms 1-4) followed by a two-year pre-university course (Forms 5 - 6), and tertiary education provided by the University of Dar-es-Salaam. This basic structure is supplemented by a range of formal and nonformal specialized training programs under a variety of Ministries; e.g., Post Primary Technical Sections (2 years), Folk Development Colleges (3 to 9 months), Vocational Training Centers (1 year and apprenticeship), Technical Colleges (3 years), Commercial Colleges (2 years), and Accountancy-Management Institutes (1-2 years), among others (para. 1.14). 1.07 Management of the formal education system is exercised by several Ministries and the Regions. For instance, the Ministry of National Education (MOE) is responsible for operation of secondary schools, colleges of national 1/ TANU (the mainland political party) was merged with the Zanzibar polit- ical party (the Afro-Shirazi Party) in February, 1977. The new party is now called Chama-Cha Mapinduzi (CCM).  - 3 - education and technical colleges. The Ministry of Finance and Planning is responsible for the recurrent budget and planning. The Ministry of Manpower Development is responsible for manpower development and allocation within the civil service and parastatals. The Regional Administrations are responsible for primary education. 1.08 Administration at various levels, e.g., National, Regional, District, Divisional and Ward-Village, of the formal education system is decentralized in accordance with the Decentralization of Government Administration Act, No. 27 of 1972. The key official in the education administrative structure is the Regional Education Officer. He is responsible administratively to the Regional Development Director and professionally to the MOE. He is assisted at the Regional level by education officers for primary school inspection, adult education, and supplies and logistics services. At the District level there is a similar structure with a District Education Officer administratively responsible to the District Development Director and professionally to the Regional Education Officer. He is also assisted at the District level by education officers for primary school inspection, adult education and supplies and logistics services. At the level above the village schools and adult education activities, there is a Divisional Education Officer responsible for both primary and adult education. Each primary school has a Head Teacher and each ward (cluster of about five villages) has an Adult Education Officer. Secondary and teacher education are administered directly by the MOE which appoints Heads or Principals after consultation with the Regional Commissioner through the Regional Education Officer. Tanzania has no established, regular program for the training of various levels of education management personnel mentioned above. Courses are periodically held for District Education Officers (two months duration), Supplies and Logistics Officers (two months), Primary School Inspectors (three months), and Divisional Education Officers (seminar basis). Only some of the Heads of secondary schools or Principals of colleges of National Education have received any administrative or managerial training. There-has been no training of primary school Head Teachers in this aspect of their work. Primary Education 1.09 Most outstanding in the education sector is the bold, national effort to attain UPE. The increases in enrollments (Annex 1, Table 1 and Chart 2) bear witness to a dramatic achievement: Standard 1 enrollments grew from 231,000 in 1974 to 540,000 in 1977 and to 950,000 in 1978 so that about 90% of the UPE Standard 1 target population had been enrolled by 1978. Total enrollments in 1978 reached 2,970,000. As a ratio of the population age 7 to 14, enrollments, including overaged students, amounted to 93%. Of total enrollments only about 20,000 were those of private schools. Advancing the goal of UPE from 1989 to 1977 led planners into greater experimentation with lower standard physical school plants. Moreover, since the existing stock of trained teachers was inadequate for this new load, various kinds of experi- ments in recruiting and training teachers, e.g., distance teaching, were tried. Emphasis was placed on self-reliance activities, such as school gardens and construction of teacher housing, to keep the costs of the UPE program at an affordable level.  - 4 - 1.10 Parallel to the UPE program the MOE established a system of Post Primary Technical Sections (PPTS) intended to provide occupational preparation for the growing number of primary school leavers who have little prospect of proceeding to the next level of education, and who have inadequate preparation for entry in the labor market.. The PPTS reflect the high priority given to the teaching of practical skills. Also, they reflect action taken toward rural development since graduates of the PPTS are expected to apply their skills in the rural villages. The first PPTS were established in 1975. By 1982 planned enrollments in the two year program are expected to reach 10,000 in some 275 schools and ultimately about 17,000 in 340 schools by 1985. Secondary Education 1.11 In 1977, lower secondary school enrollments (Forms 1 - 4) amounted to 56,700 or 4% of the 14 to 17 year age group of mainland Tanzania. Public schools accounted for 70% of these enrollments. Despite the increasing pres- sure for public secondary school places, in part generated by the growth of primary schools, Government policy held firm the increase in public secondary Form 1 enrollments (Annex 1, Table 1) to the planned 3% per year during the Second Five-Year Plan (1969-74) as compared to a 7% per year increase during the First Five-Year Plan (1964-69). Since 1974, public secondary schools have expanded at an even slower rate. However, this slow growth in public schools has been somewhat off-set by the increase in private school Form 1 enrollments. For example, from 1975 to 1976 Form 1 private school enroll- ments grew at almost 13%, and total enrollments (Forms 1-4) grew at 16%. 1.12 Progress has been made in reforming secondary school curricula. Curricula has been redirected toward the concept of self-reliance through the addition of agriculture, crafts, commerce, and home economics, the integration of the classroom and the community, and the conversion of syllabi into "ter- minal" courses preparing graduates for their working careers. In 1976 there were 141 secondary schools, 81 were public and 60 were private. For public schools the agriculture syllabus was taught in 39 schools, commercial syllabus in 27 schools, technical syllabus in 4 schools, and home economics syllabus in 3 schools. In the four secondary technical schools there are 2,550 students who follow a program of 60% practice and 40% theory in three streams: elemen- tary civil engineering, electrical engineering, and mechanical engineering. Over the current Five-Year Plan the Government intends to increase the system of technical secondary schools with six additional schools while promoting the participation of women by adding hostels. 1.13 Vocational training at the secondary level is undertaken by various entities serving approximately 4,500 students. The National Voca- tional Training Division (NVTD) of the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare has administered the National Vocational Training Program (NVTP) since its establishment in 1966 with UNDP/ILO assistance. The core training insti- tutions of the NVTP are the three Vocational Training Centers (VTC) which admit candidates having Standard 7 minimum educational qualifications. The four-year program consists of an eight-month full-time course followed by  three month's sandwich courses in each of three years of subsequent employ- ment. Similar programs in vocational training are undertaken by the Tanganyika African Parents Association (TAPA) 1/ and the Mission Trade Schools with about 20 and 40 schools respectively. Roughly 30%, 1,300 students, of the total training activity is undertaken in the Government run VTCs. Presently the source of qualified vocational instructors has been the Chang'ombe Instructor Training Unit with an output of approximately 40 instructors per annum. This output is insufficient to meet the demand for competent vocational instructors. Many vocational programs are understaffed and what staff exists is in need of upgrading. Post Secondary Education 1.14 After completing Form 4, students who continue their education may attend upper secondary school for two years and may proceed to university study. Alternatively, they may enroll in one of the many post Form 4 colleges and institutes offering specialized training. Colleges and institutes offer over three times more opportunities for further studies than upper secondary schools: in 1976 of some 12,500 Form 4 leavers, nearly 2,000 entered Form 5 while approximately 6,500 entered other training. Excluding adult education centers, in 1976 there were approximately 120 colleges and institutes in Tanzania operated or supported by the Government with a total enrollment capacity of about 24,000 students, or an average of 200 students per institu- tion. The Ministry of Health operates 41 schools; the MOE 28 schools; the Ministry of Agriculture 14 schools; The Prime Minister's Office nine schools, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism nine schools, the Ministry of Finance and Planning three schools, etc. 1.15 In management, accountancy and commercial training, (areas relevant to the proposed sixth education project, paras. 4.09-4.11), there are about nine institutions responding to very specialized needs of certain Ministries (e.g., estate management and housing management for the Ministry of Lands, Housing and Urban Development; wildlife management and hotel management for the Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism, etc.). More general training in management, accountancy and commerce is provided principally by eight institutions focusing on broad sectors of the Tanzanian economy. At the highest level, aside from the University of Dar-es-Salaam offering a bachelor's degree in business administration, there is the Institute of Development Management (IDM) offering five types of inservice diploma courses for careers in Government. The IDM currently has about 1,000 students. The Institute of 1/ The Organization was founded in 1955 as African Parents Association at the Regional and District level but was officially registered in 1957 as Tanganyika African Parents Association (TAPA) at the National level. The aim of TAPA is to assist the Government by providing primary, tech- nical, and secondary education in places where the Government has not yet been able to provide these facilities. To be able to accomplish this role TAPA mobilizes parents to build schools in their respective areas on a self-help basis.  - 6 - Finance Management (IFM) offers finance-oriented diploma courses for candidates sponsored by public sector employers such as Ministries and Departments, and parastatal organizations. Enrollments are about 550. Moshi Cooperative College and its six branches offer diploma courses for the staff of Ujamaa (Swahili for "family") villages, Cooperative Societies and the Ujamaa and Cooperative Development Division of the Prime Minister's Office. About 300 are enrolled. The Nyegezi Social Training Center, under the Tanzanian Episcopal Conference, provides courses in accountancy, journalism, and rural development with an enrollment of about 170. The output in accountancy at the Certified Public Accountant (professional) level in these institutions will be about 40 per year (Annex 1, Table 8). 1.16 At the middle and lower level of management, accountancy and commercial training, there is the Dar-es-Salaam College of Business Adminis- tration with a two-year diploma course in business administration with 300 enrolled and the Shinyanga Commercial Institute with 240 enrolled in post Form 4 courses. In accountancy at the middle (sub-professional) and lower (technician) levels,l/ the principal institution is the Dar-es-Salaam School of Accountancy, with-pre-service and in-service training in accounting, auditing and stores management for the civil service. Including enrollments at its four regional branches, there are about 800 students. Most of the institutions mentioned earlier (para 1.15) also offer accountancy training at the sub-professional or technician levels. In 1975 the output for employment of all institutions for sub-professional level accountancy training was about 100 per year and for technician level accountancy training was also about 100 per year (Annex 1, Table 8). 1.17 In July 1970, the three constitutent colleges of the University of East Africa became the three separate Universities of Makerere in Uganda, Nairobi in Kenya and Dar-es-Salaam in Tanzania. The University of Dar-es- Salaam comprises Faculties of Arts, Law, Medicine, Engineering and Science in Dar-es-Salaam itself and a Faculty of Agriculture at Morogoro some 120 miles away. The University also has a Department of Education for the pre- service training of graduate secondary school teachers and an Institute of Education which gives in-service courses and develops curricula. Both de- gree and diploma courses are offered; in 1976/77 the total enrollments were about 2,200. In addition, nearly 140 Tanzanian students were enrolled in degree or diploma courses in Makerere and Nairobi and 816 in post secondary 1/ Job Classification by Level -- Technicians: those persons who are able to work independently as bookkeepers, maintaining complete sets of books for small enterprises, cooperatives, Ujamaa villages, etc., doing simple business calculations, correspondence, simple stock and stores admini- stration. Sub-professional level: eligible for registration as approved accountants. The qualified persons will be able to work as accountants for small and medium sized industries, Government organizations or as assistant auditors. They will have to be able to solve questions arising in the field of cost accounting, taxation, business calculation, stores administration and management of the medium sized organizations. Professional level: those persons who are able to work as auditors and senior professional accountants and finance officers of large business and government organizations. They will be able to appraise projects, to make budgets and to organize an administration in such a way, that it provides management with all relevant data necessary for decision making.  - 7 - courses overseas. The Government intends to stabilize the growth of univer- sity education over the next development plan opting for investment in basic education and critical technical skills development. Financing and Cost of Education 1.18 Total public expenditure on education in 1976/77, including foreign assistance, reached T.Shs. 1,278.7 million (US$154 million equivalent), or about 6.6% of GDP (Annex 1, Table 3). The growth of total Government expend- itures and education expenditures is greater than growth in GDP. Within Gov- ernment expenditures, education has been given very high priority, resisting the larger fluctuations in total Government expenditures. 1.19 Foreign assistance for education was received from a variety of donor agencies. For 1977/78 these services are expected to contribute about US$17.2 million equivalent. Primary and adult education has received major attention from Sweden (SIDA) and Finland. Diversification of secondary schools has progressed notably. Norway (NORAD) and Cuba have financed agri- cultural secondary schools, and Denmark (DANIDA), Sweden (SIDA), Canada (CIDA), the Federal Republic of Germany and the Swiss Foundation for Technical Assistance have helped develop technical education. DANIDA has been active in teacher training, and NORAD, CIDA and the Federal Republic of Germany have promoted higher education with emphasis on the critical skill areas of en- gineering, accountancy and management. Technical assistance, fellowships and other post secondary education support has come largely from the United Kingdom (British Council), CIDA, DANIDA and USAID. 1.20 The annual capital expenditure on education varied from about 5% to about 12% of total Government capital expenditures during 1972-76. During the 1976/77 period, the amount spent on education was T.Shs. 382.2 million. Over the same period all Government capital expenditures including education rose faster than the total Government budget. The trend in educational capi- tal expenditures shows the growing importance of primary compared to secondary educational investments, and the increase in teacher training facilities. 1.21 In 1976/77 recurrent expenditures in education and training amounted to T.Shs. 896.5 million (Annex 1, Tables 2 and 3), or about 21% of total Gov- ernment recurrent expenditures. The MOE budget (including regional education expenditures) amounted to T.Shs. 771 million. In contrast to capital expend- itures on education which have grown faster than GDP, recurrent expenditures for education have grown at about the same annual rate as the economy and total Government recurrent expenditures. Over the period 1972-76 Government recurrent expenditures grew at an annual nominal rate of 18.6%, recurrent expenditures for all education and training grew at 17.7% and recurrent ex- penditures for the Ministry of National Education (including regional expend- itures) grew at 18.6%. 1.22 Prior to 1977/78, recurrent expenditure in education and training amounted to about 20% of total Government recurrent expenditures. According to official estimates, in Tanzanian fiscal year 1977/78 this expenditure may rise to 28%. The growth in relative importance will be due to rapid growth  -8- in primary education, teacher training (much of which relates to primary edu- cation), and adult education (Annex 1, Table 2). Programs which will lose relative importance will be secondary and higher education. 1.23 The relative importance of recurrent expenditures for education in the future will depend primarily on economic growth, changes in the unit costs of primary education, total enrollments in the UPE program, and the amount of adult education provided. Because of the central importance of the UPE program on total recurrent expenditures on education, the Bank's 1977 "Basic Economic Report" (BER) for Tanzania analyzed the fiscal implications of UPE. The BER scenario of moderate economic growth (4% per annum) and rising unit costs of UPE (3% per annum) leads to recurrent expenditures for education amounting to 30% of total Government recurrent expenditures and 7% of GDP by fiscal year 1982/83. In this case, Tanzania would face pressures to lower goals in other education programs in order to provide resources for the UPE program. 1.24 Since the time of the BER analysis of the fiscal implications of UPE (March 1976), primary enrollments have grown by about 50% (from 1,950,000 in 1976 to 2,970,000 in 1978; see Annex 1, Table 1) while unit costs of pri- mary education have not increased in real terms; also, while economic perfor- mance has been poor in the mid 1970's, prospects of economic growth into the 1980's have improved. Real economic growth has been projected at about 6 percent per year. If these trends were to continue, as seems likely, by Tanzanian fiscal year 1982/83 recurrent expenditures for education would amount to 24.8% of total Government recurrent expenditures and 5.8% of GDP (Annex 1, Table 2). In this case the relative importance of education ex- penditures would remain at approximately the current level and would be in line with other countries of the region at a similar level of development. Thus, the recent developments in Tanzania suggest that UPE can be implemented while allowing for considerable progress in other education programs. II. MEETING MANPOWER NEEDS: TOWARD SKILL SELF-SUFFICIENCY 2.01 At the center of its manpower strategy, Tanzania has established the Ministry of Manpower Development with the responsibility of monitoring and allocating high and middle level skill production (para. 1.07). The Ministry aims at complying with the policy of producing only those skills necessary for economic growth and the achievement of self-sufficiency in skilled manpower by 1980 (para. 1.05). Basis of Current Manpower Planning 2.02 Tanzania has carried out manpower planning activities since Independence. Past manpower surveys were undertaken in 1962, 1964, 1968 and 1974. The first survey represented a post Independence manpower inventory and the subsequent three surveys established the basic manpower data for the three Five-Year Development Plans (1964-1969, 1969-1974, and 1975-1980). In recent years changes in coverage and definition have been significant and have led to problems of comparability and interpretation.  - 9 - 2.03 Originally the Third Five-Year Plan (1975-80) anticipated optimistic rates of economic growth. In real terms, the GDP was to grow at an annual rate of 6.8% with rapid growth of manufacturing (9.3%), utilities (10.0%), and mining (9.3%). The public administration sector was to keep pace with real economic growth at 6% per annum. In other sectors growth was expected to be moderately strong. Employment of wage and salary labor was expected to grow at 5.2% reflecting increases in labor productivity. This too was optimistic given the actual decline in labor productivity during the Second Five-Year Plan. 2.04 Because of a drought induced recession during 1974-75, the Third Five-Year Plan (originally 1974-79) was postponed for one year to be imple- mented in 1975-80. Growth assumptions of the new economic plan were adjusted downward from an overall 6.8% to 6.0%; yet there was virtually no change in the manpower plan. Meanwhile the economy had set out on a course that would imply a growing divergence between targets and actual performance. Real economic growth had been well below expectations, averaging 3.9% annually during 1972-76, and had been outpaced by the public administration sector whose average growth was 12% compared to the new target of 5.6%. More re- cently, 1974-76, the public administration sector annual growth rate has exceeded 13% per year. Coupled with this very rapid expansion of the public administration sector, certain other sectors, notably mining, agriculture and construction, had clearly begun to stagnate or even diminish in real terms. Government efforts in 1975 to achieve greater efficiencies in labor produc- tivity showed no marked effects in productive sectors. In public administra- tion where employment was cut back, total wages and salaries were unaffected indicating that few if any reductions took place at the middle and higher levels. Projected Manpower Needs 2.05 In light of these important new developments, the Bank Group staff worked out revised projections of manpower requirements. The revision incor- porated more realistic sectoral growth rates and labor productivity assump- tions, but the skill mix assumed in the Five-Year Plan was left unchanged. In the resulting scenario, even with lower initial GDP growth, e.g., an average annual growth rate of 5.3% over 1975-80 rising to 6% from 1980 on- ward, and a delay in full success of labor productivity gains, manpower requirements rose well beyond levels targeted in the Third Five-Year Plan (Annex 1, Tables 4 and 5). The demand for university level professionals (category A) rose from 8,276 to 10,380 in the new estimation. 1/ The demand 1/ The definitions of categories as applied in the Manpower Plan are: A - Jobs normally requiring a university degree. B - Jobs which normally require from one to three years formal post secondary (Form 4) education/training. C - Jobs which normally require a secondary school education for standard performance of the full array of tasks involved in the occupation. This category includes skilled office workers and skilled manual workers in the "modern crafts."  - 10 - for sub-professionals, requiring upper secondary education (category B skills) rose from 28,556 to 50,430. Finally, the demand for craftsmen and technicians (category C skills), requiring secondary education at the Form 4 level or its equivalent, rose from 58,892 to 74,100. The essential determining factor of this outcome of higher manpower requirements is the public administration sector which was assumed to continue its 1972-76 trend of 12% annual growth until 1980. After 1980 this sector was assumed to grow at 5.3% per year. The skill intake per unit employment of this sector is 2.8 times higher in professional manpower and 4.9 times higher in sub-professional manpower than any other sector. The revised manpower estimates were extended to 1990. During 1980-90 efficiency and growth were assumed to be in line with the current plan target. Thus yearly manpower requirements for 1980-90 were actually below the 1975-80 levels. Also, the 1975-90 average manpower re- quirements were considerably below the average yearly requirements of the 1975-80 period (Annex 1, Table 6). Projected Manpower Supply and Skill Shortages 2.06 For the period 1975-1990 it is estimated that manpower supplies are essentially in balance with future manpower requirements. However, this balance may be easily perturbed by shifts in Government hiring. Also, the balance exists only in a global sense since within the larger skill categories specific skill shortages arise, e.g., engineers, accountants, and craftsmen (Annex 1, Table 5). 2.07 At the average 1976-80 intake levels for education and training programs, the yearly output of skills available for employment (roughly in 1979-83) would be about 1,180 for professionals (workers in skill category A), 7,200 for sub-professionals (skill category B), and 8,000 for skilled workers (skill category C). Under the revised economic growth and productivity assumptions, given the skill mix that prevailed in 1974, overall manpower requirements would be met for skill categories A and B (see Annex 1, Table 6). Had the 1974 skill mix continued, there would have been a shortage of skill category C workers. But recent changes will offset this possibility. First, a large cutback has occurred in Government hiring of Form 4 graduates who constitute the major source of new workers at the category C level. Second, there has been a rapid expansion of private secondary school enrollments. From 1973 to 1976 these enrollments grew at an average annual rate of about 11% (compared to the 5% annual growth in Government schools) and more recently, 1975-76 enrollments grew at 16%. Third, evidence discussed in the BER strongly suggests that estimates of skill category C requirements embody large upward bias. Given these considerations it is reasonable to regard the supply of category C as roughly in balance with requirements. 2.08 Specific skill shortages for engineers, accountants, and craftsmen were identified in the Manpower Plan and recent experience in training and recruiting has confirmed these shortages. Because of the felt need in these areas, additional analyses of these specific skill requirements have been undertaken. The Ministry of Finance and Planning and the National Board of Accountants and Auditors (NBAA), with Bank Group assistance, have called  - 11 - attention to the critical need for accountancy skills in parastatal develop- ment and in the program of villagization as well as in Government. The ILO and the National Vocational Training Program have pointed to vocational training needs, especially in the skill areas outside the traditional building trades such as various types of mechanics and machine tool operations. Fi- nally, the need for engineering skills has been viewed as sufficiently critical to call for an official exemption of engineering candidates from the two-year national service requirement between secondary and higher education. III. BANK GROUP EXPERIENCE AND LENDING STRATEGY IN THE SECTOR Past Experience and Lessons Learned 3.01 The previous five Bank Group-assisted projects in education have broadly supported the Government's changing sectoral objectives. The general thrust has reflected the Government's concern with manpower development, concentrating on secondary education and training. With the Government's increased emphasis on rural development, the Bank Group has made a number of specific attempts at supporting the Government's training efforts in the rural sector. The one obvious gap has been the lack of a major involvement in UPE. To a large extent this reflects the high priority the Tanzanians have placed on self-help and developing low-cost local solutions for meeting the require- ments of UPE, as well as the emphasis which bilateral agencies (para. 1.19) have placed on assisting the parts of this sub-sector requiring outside assistance. 3.02 The first project (Credit 45-TA) in 1963 provided US$4.6 million equivalent for the expansion of general secondary education and was success- fully completed in 1967. The second (Credit 149-TA) in 1969 provided US$5.0 million equivalent for development of general secondary schools, the expansion of primary teacher training, and the Dar-es-Salaam Technical College. This project has been completed. The completion report on the second education project uncovered a number of lessons among the most important of which were the need: (i) to expand access for women to the higher and more specialized areas of education and training; (ii) to assure that staff training be adequ- ate to meet the staff requirements of expanded and newly created institutions; and (iii) to upgrade management and administrative education personnel in order to improve the quality and efficiency of education. The third education project (Credit 232-TA) in 1971 provided US$3.3 million equivalent for agri- cultural training facilities to train villagers, farmers, and agriculture extension personnel. The project was completed two and one half years after the original Closing Date. The completion report of the third education project called attention to a number of significant points, e.g., (i) imple- mentation schedules should generally be longer, especially in projects in- volving more than one Ministry and where institutions are dispersed in distant rural areas; (ii) innovations should be attuned to foreseeable changes in broader Government policy to maximize chances of their being successfully adopted. The fourth education project (Credit 371-TA) in 1973 provided US$10.3 million equivalent to assist Tanzania's education strategy for the  - 12 - Second Development Plan by: (i) developing education and training facilities for children and adults in Ujamaa villages; (ii) expanding and improving pre-service and in-service training of primary school teachers; (iii) provid- ing additional facilities for training medical doctors; and (iv) providing new general secondary schools and vocational training centers. Project implementation is over one year behind schedule due to belated recruitment of technical assistance personnel. Due to delay and the ensuing price escalation, three secondary schools were deleted in 1975 to reduce cost, again reflecting the need for more realistic implementation scheduling. The fifth education project (Credit 607-TA) in 1976 provided US$11.0 million to assist in the villagization program, and ongoing transformation of the educa- tion system by providing for: (i) the training and housing of 1,500 Village Management Technicians, (ii) the expansion and improvement of 15 secondary schools; and (iii) pre-investment studies and surveys of accountancy, primary, and secondary education. With respect to implementation, use of technical assistance funds has been slow; only recently, action has been taken by the MOE to implement the sub-sector survey of secondary schools requiring technical assistance. Extension to secondary schools is proceeding satisfactorily but construction of the 1,500 VMT houses is about 18 months behind schedule due to the difficulties of implementing such a dispersed construction program. Further, over 50% of trained VMTs were reassigned as Village Managers in January 1978 as a result of a change in Government policy. This reassign- ment has caused a setback for reaching the training target of 1,500 VMTs, again reflecting the need to be aware of the probability of changes in Gov- ernment policy during project design. 3.03 In addition to the specific experience of the previous five educa- tion projects, the Bank Group has considerable knowledge of the sector. In the late sixties the Bank conducted in collaboration with FAO the first major study of agriculture education, and carried out in collaboration with UNESCO the first comprehensive inventory of secondary school facilities. A sector study was commissioned by the Bank Group in 1971 (conducted by the American Education Council), in 1974 a sector survey was completed in cooperation with UNESCO, and in 1976 an education sector memorandum was prepared by Bank Group staff. In collaboration with USAID and the International Institute for Educational Planning, the Bank Group has assisted Tanzania in the development of education evaluation and monitoring. Further in 1976, at the Government's request, Bank Group staff were involved in a special study of the fiscal implications of UPE, under the auspices of the Bank's Basic Economic Report. Finally, the Bank Group has financed studies in order to address areas where it was felt gaps exist and more work needs to be done. For example, the fourth education project provided a study of management training and in the fifth education project funds were provided to support a study of accountancy training, an updated survey of secondary school facilities, and a review of the content and delivery system of primary education. Recently the Bank staff has carried out a sub-sector study of rural education to examine the training needs required by the rural sector. In June 1978, a special mission was sent to lend technical assistance in manpower planning to the Ministry of Manpower Development (para 2.02), continuing the sectoral dialogue.  - 13 - Lending Strategy 3.04 In deciding on possible future activities in the sector in Tanzania the Bank Group has taken into consideration the overall priorities of invest- ments and the comparative advantage demonstrated by the Bank Group in the sub- sectors considered for support. These concerns with priorities and compara- tive advantage have led to two major categories for potential Bank Group support. First, the extensive Bank Group experience in specialized skill training (teacher training, vocational training, rural training centers, etc.) has prepared the Bank Group to continue investment in specific areas of critical skill shortage for self-sufficiency. Second, the Bank Group is in the unique position of having practical experience in rural training through a large investment program in agriculture and rural development. While rural training can be expected to be a much more difficult focus for investment than specialized education, it is of high priority and provides the basis for an ongoing Bank Group dialogue with Tanzania looking toward a possible seventh education project in this area. 3.05 The critical areas for specific skill expansion are those of engineering, accountancy, and trade skills. The Federal Republic of Germany is already addressing the first critical skill with the development of an Engineering Faculty at the University of Dar-es-Salaam and the building of an additional Technical College at Arusha (para. 1.19). The development of high level accountancy and management training is receiving the attention of CIDA with its Institute of Finance Management in Dar-es-Salaam (para. 1.19). Thus, the Bank Group should focus its assistance on the critical areas of middle and lower level accountancy training and vocational training, as well as in qualitative improvement of the general education system. Priority Areas for Lending 3.06 Vocational Training. Recently, a joint Government of Tanzania, SIDA, DANIDA, and GTZ (German Agency for Technical Cooperation) team com- pleted a survey on vocational training and technical education in Tanzania. The survey team's report includes a series of recommendations relevant to the vocational training components of the project. The report is now under consideration by the Government. It is our judgment that it provides a framework for alleviating a number of problems in quality, access and organ- ization of vocational training. However, in the interim, there are areas of need that can be immediately addressed by project: (i) qualified staff, (ii) needed instructional equipment, and (iii) access to rural non-day stu- dents including women. Investments in these areas are consistent with the general findings of the study. 3.07 The National Vocational Training Program is responsible for the administration and operation of all vocational training and trade testing programs of the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare. Three existing Voca- tional Training Centers (VTC) at Chang'ombe, Tanga and Mwanza (the latter two assisted under the fourth education project) have capacities of 1,100. By 1982, the addition of three centers at Dodoma, Moshi and Mbeya which the  - 14 - Government expects to develop with bilateral assistance, will raise enroll- ments to 2,000. 3.08 The shortage of instructional staff has been a constraint on the effective implementation of the VTC expansion program (Annex 1, Table 7). In addition, less than 56% of current staff are considered to be fully qualified as instructors in their respective technical fields. In 1975, CIDA provided technical assistance for a pilot instructor training program at the Chang'ombe VTC with enrollments of 40 per year in an eight-month course. First outputs in 1977 were immediately absorbed. The CIDA project will continue until 1980 with technical assistance and fellowship training. After 1980, the project will continue to serve as a temporary source of in- structor supply with Swiss Development Corporation assistance prior to the operationalization of the proposed Bank Group assistance to the new ITC. 3.09 Aside from instructor training needs for its expanding system of VTCs, additional qualified staff are needed for the promotion and supervision of in-plant training programs, the training of industrial trainers, the trade testing program and the staffing requirements of Mission Trade Schools and TAPA (para. 1.13) schools (Annex 1, Table 7). And, while the MOE prefers to train technical teachers for its own institutions, the demand brought about by the secondary school curriculum diversification program will require additional sources of teachers. The total shortfall of vocational instructors will be as high as 440 in 1985 if new sources of supply are not developed (Annex 1, Table 7). 3.10 Equipment is needed in order to overcome existing deficiencies, and to upgrade the level of instruction from Grade 3 to Grades 2 and 1 as originally envisioned. 1/ 3.11 Ninety-five % of all students in the existing VTCs come from the surrounding urban areas. In order to rectify this regional imbalance additional boarding accommodations will be needed. 3.12 Management and Accountancy Training. The April 1975 Management Training Study financed with Bank Group assistance under the fourth education project provides an exhaustive and pertinent review of managerial problems, types of training needed and projections of future manpower requirements in the managerial field. The study indicates that in Government and parastatal institutions, there were 1,330 managers at post in 1975 and 260 vacancies. It also projects that the managerial staff will increase to 2,100 in 1980 and to 2,850 in 1985, thereby doubling the number of required managers in ten years. In the area of accountancy training the study points out the need to address the problems of staffing, student performance and examination standards. In 1/ Craftsmen Qualifications: Grade 1 Fully competent craftsmen with supervisory expertise. Grade 2 Fully skilled in all the elements of a trade. Grade 3 Skilled in certain basic elements only of the occupation.  - 15 - 1976, the Government issued a "White Paper" setting up the National Management Development Advisory Council to keep the entire field of management develop- ment including accountancy training under continuous review and to provide guidance to the Ministry of Manpower Development in this area. 3.13 Accountants, both at the professional and the sub-professional levels, while part of the management cadre are treated separately in Tanzanian manpower calculations. In 1974 there were about 9,600 employed in accountancy related categories. Their numbers are expected to increase at nearly 8% per annum so that the number employed in 1985 would reach 21,600 or more than twice the number employed in 1974. At the level of the 1975-80 Manpower Plan demand would grow at about 1,100 annually while supply would grow at 785 annually by 1982 when the various programs established in recent years achieve full oper- ating capacity. According to this level of demand there would be a shortfall of about 350 per annum of technicians and about 60 per annum of professionals (Annex 1, Table 8). If recent changes in the villagization program are taken into account, an additional need for at least one subprofessional at the ward level would result in a shortfall of about 100 sub-professionals per annum. Other accountancy needs of villages, as high as 30,000 bookkeepers and related personnel, are to be trained at least initially in Government accelerated pro- grams. 3.14 Related to the quantitative output of accountancy personnel is the problem of training inefficiency. In 1977, 85% of accountancy candidates failed the National Board of Accountants and Auditors qualifying examination. The Government is organizing a study of this problem utilizing funds under the fifth education project. Terms of reference have been reviewed and approved by the Bank Group staff and an executive secretary for the study panel has been appointed. 3.15 Management Training for Education Personnel. The Ministry of National Education is also in need of managerial improvement and strengthening (para. 1.08). With the rapid expansion of the education system ad hoc train- ing programs have proven to be insufficient. There is a need at all levels: Regional, District and Divisional Education Officers, Principals and Head Teachers, among others. The MOE has also recognized the need to consolidate and intensify these courses into an organized national program of in-service management training. IV. THE PROJECT 4.01 Following a review of the status of ongoing education projects, preliminary discussions on possible Bank Group assistance to the Third Five- Year Plan education investment program were held in February 1977. This was followed by a Bank-UNESCO project identification mission in July 1977 and further discussions between the Bank staff and the Tanzanian authorities in November 1977. The various Government agencies involved in the sector (e.g., Ministry of National Education, Ministry of Agriculture, Prime Minister's Office, Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare and the Ministry of Finance and Planning) formulated extensive proposals for Bank Group assistance during the next five years. These were reviewed by the July and November 1977 Bank  - 16 - Group missions and a number of items were suggested for the inclusion into the proposed sixth education project under the auspices of a recent set of Government proposals prepared with assistance from UNESCO and presented to the Bank Group in February 1978. Objectives 4.02 The major objective of the project is to assist in the development of critical middle level management and skill training for the modern sector (para. 3.05). In order to accomplish this, the project provides for the following items: Project Items Objectives Specific Assistance 1. Vocational Training A. Quality a) Civil works, equipment, Centers improvement and furniture 2. NVTP Instructor Training B. Manpower a) Civil works, equipment, Center development and and furniture quality improvement 3. Technical Secondary C. Greater oppor- a) Civil works, equipment, Schools tunity for and furniture women 4. School of Accountancy D. Manpower a) Civil works, equipment development and and furniture quality improvement 5. Management Training E. Institution a) Civil works, equipment for Education Personnel building and furniture b) Technical assistance The total number of new student places to be provided is 720. The number to be upgraded through provision of additional equipment and facilities is approximately 6,600. 4.03 During the preparation and appraisal of the proposed sixth education project, efforts were made to apply solutions to lessons learned from the previous projects. The project focuses only on a comparatively small number of institutions almost all of which are located in major towns. Staff develop- ment plans on all new project institutions have been included in the project (paras. 4.08, 4.12, and 4.15); upgrading management capabilities of education personnel is being addressed directly in the project (paras 4.14-4.17); a plan for coordinating procurement procedures is being prepared (para. 6.04) due to the involvement of three different Ministries in the proposed project; and women's educational opportunities were increased through the proposed addition of boarding facilities at four technical secondary schools (paras 4.09-4.10).  - 17 - 4.04 The project objectives are in line with Tanzania's Third Five-Year Development Plan which places emphasis on the provision of technical and commercial skills relevant to the country's development and the promotion of equality of opportunity for women (para. 1.05). The objectives are also consistent with the Bank's present lending strategy in Tanzania of qualitative improvement and limited expansion in critical specialized skill areas (paras. 3.04 and 3.05). Project Items Vocational and Technical Education 4.05 Improvement of Mwanza and Tanga Vocational Training Centers (VTCs). The project will provide for the procurement of additional equipment for the Mwanza and Tanga Vocational Training Centers. It will also provide accommoda- tion for staff and students at these VTCs: 150 student boarding places and 15 staff houses at each VTC. This additional boarding accommodation will promote access to non-day students from distant rural areas. The staff hous- ing would provide the necessary incentive to recruit and maintain qualified instructional staff. 4.06 NVTP Instructor Training Center (ITC). The Government proposes to develop a new Instructor Training Center at Morogoro as part of the National Vocational Training Program. The selection of the Morogoro site is supported by the extensive future industrial development at Morogoro, central location, and availability of land, power and water. 4.07 The project will help finance the proposed Instructor Training Center. Total enrollments will amount to 160 trainees comprised of four pre- service groups of 30 each in eight-month courses, and two in-service groups of 20 each. Since the NVT$ program has experienced severe handicaps due to the lack of boarding accomm3dation and staff houses at other locations, accord- ingly the project item will include boarding accommodation for the 160 stu- dents and the basic start-up requirement of five staff houses. The needed additional staff houses will be constructed by the Center's instructor trainees as part of the instructional program. The ITC would require unusu- ally high allocations for equipment. The basic VTC equipment for the larger occupations will be required to provide testing, remedial instruction and practice teaching. In addition, the ITC instructor trainees will need technical upgrading in order to achieve the level of Grade 1 tradesman. The ITC will also require vehicles for field support purposes. 4.08 The present CIDA technical assistance to the pilot instructor training program will continue for two years. Following a review in 1980, the termination or continuation of this program will be considered. The Government anticipates favorable response to its request to CIDA, or other bilateral agencies, e.g., Swiss Development Corporation, for an expanded project. The Government gave assurances that it will submit a staff develop- ment plan for the ITC to the Bank Group for review and comment by December 31, 1979, or such later date as the Association may accept; and that it will secure the necessary staff for the proper operation of this proposed project institution in a timely fashion.  - 18 - 4.09 Improvement of the Access of Women to Technical Education. Despite national adherence to equal opportunity for women, secondary education has largely offered women only home economics and secretarial careers. For zh-is reason the current Five-Year Plan has an explicit goal of increasing opportuni- ties for women in education (para. 1.05). School enrollment data for 1976 indicate that one of the areas of lowest female participation is in technical education: females account for only 0.5% of enrollments in technical colleges compared to 18% of Form 5 and 6 enrollments, 13% of university graduates, 5% of students studying abroad. The exceptionally low enrollment of women in technical colleges is a consequence of the token number of women included among the 2,800 students at the four Tanzanian technical secondary schools. Although women compete freely with men for available places in the technical secondary schools, they are de facto excluded by the lack of hostel accom- modation. Women are accepted only as day students or, in very limited cases, accommodated with make-shift quarters. National selection data indicate that if more boarding places were available, more than 25% of available places could be filled by interested, qualified women. 4.10 This project item will support a concerted effort on the part of Tanzania to achieve its objective of greater participation of women in educa- tion and develoment, by adding 160 hostel places to each of four existing technical secondary schools. These additions would raise women's participa- tion at technical secondary schools from about 3% to a planned 25% by 1983. Total enrollments in these schools would remain fixed at about 2,800 but the number of usable hostel places would be increased from 1,900 to 2,540, or about 90% of enrollment capacity. Full boarding is the accepted standard to ensure regional equity for the nationally organized admission selections. The enhanced boarding facilities would be complemented by the improvements in workshops and equipment recently provided under a bilateral grant from the Netherlands. Management and Accountancy Training 4.11 Dar-es-Salaam School of Accountancy (DSA). The DSA was established in 1973 by the Ministry of Finance and Planning to provide training for technician (accounts clerks and store-keepers) and sub-professional (junior accountants and bookkeepers) personnel at the preservice and in-service levels. The school primarily serves Government but is expected to play an increasing role in the parastatal, private and cooperative sectors. In 1977, there were 455 students enrolled in the school and an additional 345 in its four branches in other parts of the country. There are 33 staff members. It is proposed to increase the DSA enrollment to 1,015 with a ratio of approxi- mately seven technicians to each sub-professional. This proposed expansion would add significantly to the stock of trained personnel at these levels. The DSA would develop a staffing scheme and train accountancy tutors to meet their own needs. To accomplish this expansion the DSA would require: (i) five additional instructors and 29 tutors; (ii) 33 additional classrooms and seminar rooms; two model offices; (iii) administrative and office facilities; (iv) boarding, staff housing, dining and kitchen facilities; and (v) vehicles, furniture and equipment. Boarding is required because the DSA is a national institution with countrywide recruitment. Staff housing is essential due to the dire housing shortage in Dar-es-Salaam.  - 19 - 4.12 The 24 man-years of technical assistance required for staff is expected to be provided by CIDA and/or SIDA. The Government gave assurances that it will secure the necesssary staff for the proper operation of the DSA in a timely fashion, and that a staff development plan for the DSA will be submitted to the Association for review and comment by December 31, 1979, or such later date as may be acceptable to the Association. 4.13 The Bank Group assistance to accountancy training in Tanzania has been reviewed at length in the past and in view of the overall accountancy shortage high priority is evident (para. 3.13). However, a major issue remains related to the rectification of the existing high failure rate (85 percent) and questions concerning the examination system and appropriate- ness of the accountancy curriculum in general (para 3.14). In the near future, the Government will undertake a review of this problem with assistance from an International Accountancy Review Panel comprised of international experts financed under the fifth education project (para 3.14). The Government gave assurances that it will furnish to the Association for review and comment the report of the International Accountancy Review Panel by July 1, 1979, or such later date as the Association may accept, and will provide the Association the opportunity to exchange views with it regarding the actions to be taken to meet Tanzania's needs for trained accountants. In addition, a condition of disbursement for civil works, furniture and equipment contracts for this item will be that the Borrower shall have adopted a plan of action adequate to ensure the efficient training of accountants in Tanzania. 4.14 Management Training for Educational Personnel (MANTEP). The MANTEP program will result in expansion and consolidation of a variety of existing in-service programs which are designed to teach administrative and supervisory techniques to the field officers of the Ministry of National Education. Since major emphasis over the next ten years will be put on increasing the efficiency and improving the quality of the educational system, the proper training of this administrative cadre is vital to the success of these efforts. The in-service training would be provided for all Regional, District, and Divisional Education Officers; Supply and Inspection Officers; College Principals and their Deputies; Secondary School Principals and Deputies, and for Head Teachers of primary schools. 4.15 MANTEP will require an initial staff development program. The ten permanent staff members will receive training at the East Africa Management Institute (EAMI) 1/ in Arusha and that Institute, together with other agen- cies such as the fnstitute of Education, will assist in the preparation of the curricula during the training program. Training programs for the staff will be designed to meet the specific needs of each level of the educational field staff from Regional Education Officers to Head Teachers of primary schools. The Government gave assurances that a staff development plan will be 1/ The East African Management Institute was established by an Act of the East African Legislative Assembly in response to the expressed needs of the partner states of Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. In spite of the problems encountered by the East African Community the Institute is still actively engaged in management and organization development.  - 20 - submitted to the Bank Group for review and comment by December 31, 1979 or such later date as may be acceptable to the Association. Programs will cover duties and responsibilities; scheduling, accounting, evaluation and training activities; report writing and methods of teacher, school and curricular appraisal, and methods of instruction. The courses would include considerable field work with school visits, school inspections, the development of evalua- tion forms and methods and sample report writing. 4.16 The project institution will be located in Bagamoyo on the site of the present College of National Education. Hostel facilities are adequate to meet MANTEP's needs. MANTEP would not displace the present College. About 500 students per annum could be trained in induction courses ranging from one to four months. About 2,800 staff members would be trained over the first five years in these induction courses. The induction courses, once completed, would be replaced by longer and more intensive training courses. 4.17 This project component will consist of renovation, furniture and equipment for the seminary building, three vehicles, funds to supply the course and teaching materials and one man-year of technical assistance. Funds will also be provided to cover the expense of the three-month instructor training program at the EAMI. The Government gave assurances that the terms of reference for the technical assistance specialist and the EAMI instructor training program will be submitted to the Association for review and comment by December 31, 1979, or such later date as the Association may accept. The Government also gave assurances that the technical assistance specialist to assist MANTEP will be employed by March 31, 1980, or such later date as may be acceptable to the Association. Project-Related Studies 4.18 The Institute of Education (I.E.) Pre-Investment Study. The Institute of Education was established in 1964 as part of the University of Dar-es-Salaam. To facilitate its performance, and to make it more effective, it was given parastatal status in 1975. It has about 20 staff members and also receives itinerant staff assistance from the University. Its primary functions are educational planning, evaluation and research, assistance in the development of curriculum and in-service training. 4.19 The recent changes in educational policy have resulted in major increases in the work load of the Institute, especially in the area of National curriculum development, and have raised questions regarding how it might be reorganized to improve its effectiveness. To this end, a major reassessment, or feasibility study, of the Institute would be undertaken to define its future role, assess its staffing needs and to plan for physical expansion. The proposed project would include the provision of US$75,000 equivalent including contingencies to fund the proposed study. Satisfactory draft terms of reference have already been reviewed by the Bank Group. Project Monitoring and Evaluation 4.20 Building on earlier joint Bank Group-Institute of International Educa- tional Planning assistance provided to the MOE for the training of evaluation  - 21 - personnel (para. 3.03), funds would be provided to support project monitoring and evaluation. These funds in the amount of US$75,000 equivalent including contingencies would be administered by the MOE Project Planning Section (para. 6.02). The Government gave assurances that the terms of reference for this monitoring and evaluation activities will be submitted to the Association for review and comment by December 31, 1979, or such later date as may be accept- able to the Association. As a part of project evaluation during negotiations the Government gave assurances that it would prepare and furnish to the Association, promptly after completion of the proposed project, but in any event not later than three months after the project closing date, a report on the execution and initial operations of the proposed project, its costs and the benefits derived, the performance by the Government and the Association of their respective obligations under the credit agreement, the accomplishment of the purpose of the credit, and significant lessons learned during project implementation. This report along with other monitoring and evaluation acti- vities will be carried out by the Project Planning Section in cooperation with various relevant branches of the Ministry of National Education, Ministry of Finance and Planning, and the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare. V. PROJECT COST AND FINANCING Project Cost 5.01 The total cost of the project is estimated at US$16.0 million equivalent including duties and taxes estimated at US$1.6 million equivalent. The estimated costs and foreign exchange components are given in Annex 1 Table 9 and summarized as follows:  - 22 - ESTIMATED COST BY PROJECT ITEMS Civil Works, Furniture, % of Equipment, Vehicles, and T. Shs. (million) US$ (million) Base Technical Assistance Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Cost Vocational Training Centers 1. Tanga 3.84 3.89 7.73 0.48 0.49 0.97 9% 2. Mwanza 4.30 4.29 8.59 0.53 0.54 1.07 10% Instructor Training Center 3. Morogoro 7.80 8.69 16.49 0.98 1.08 2.06 19% Technical Secondary Schools 4. Ifunda 2.07 1.86 3.93 0.26 0.23 0.49 4% 5. Moshi 1.97 1.77 3.74 0.25 0.22 0.47 4% 6. Mtwara 2.02 1.82 3.84 0.25 0.23 0.48 4% 7. Tanga 1.85 1.66 3.51 0.23 0.21 0.44 4% School of Accountancy 8. Dar es Salaam 15.04 14.26 29.38 1.88 1.78 3.66 34% MANTEP 9. Bagamoyo 0.98 3.87 4.85 0.12 0.49 0.61 6% Project Administration and Monitoring and Studies 10. Dar es Salaam 1.77 3.29 5.06 0.22 0.41 0.63 6% Base Cost (November 1978) 41.64 45.40 87.40 5.20 5.68 10.88 100% (Total 1 to 10) Contingencies a. Physical Increase (9%) 3.82 3.88 7.70 0.48 0.48 0.96 b. Price Increase (36%) 16.10 17.21 33.31 2.01 2.15 4.16 Sub-Total 19.92 21.09 41.01 2.49 2.63 5.12 PROJECT COST 61.56 66.49 128.05 7.69 8.31 16.00 1/ (Total 1-10 plus contingencies) 1/ Includes duties and taxes estimated at US$1.6 million equivalent.  - 23 - 5.02 Civil works, furniture and equipment costs are based upon tenders received during 1977 and 1978 for the fourth and fifth education projects assisted by the Bank Group as well as other similar projects. The November 1978 base construction costs are estimated to vary from US$330 per square meter in Tanga to US$400 per square meter in Ifunda; this compares with an estimated cost of US$350 equivalent in Zaire (March 1976) and US$250 equiva- lent in Kenya (April 1978). While construction cost is high in Tanzania (para. 6.08), proposed design of project institutions would be as economical as feasible yet functional and in keeping with local standards and building technology 1/. Student boarding and staff housing are in line with past experience in similar Bank projects, as shown below: 1967-71 1971-73 1974-77 Proposed Projects Projects Projects Project Median Value (m ) for: (1) Student Boarding Places a) Secondary Schools 7.4 7.8 6.5 6.7 b) Post Secondary, Non University 8.4 8.2 10.4 9.1 (2) Staff Housing 130 103 99 90 5.03 Student boarding amounts to 38% of the total project cost including contingencies. Of total boarding, about 40% is for women's dormitories to increase the participation of women in technical education (para 4.09-4.10). An additional 20% of boarding is for the VTCs (para 4.05). The remainder of boarding is to ensure regional equity for enrollments at national institu- tions. As brought out in the second education project Completion Report additional benefits of boarding include more effective attitudinal change regarding self-reliance and greater utilization of instructional facilities. Staff housing constitutes about 14% of total project cost. Of total staff housing, about one half is for the VTCs (para 4.05), and the bulk of the remainder is for the DSA which has faced severe recruiting problems due to the current housing shortage in Dar-es-Salaam. The amount of staff housing has been calculated according to the degree to which additional houses are expected to improve the quality and efficiency of education through staff improvement. A technical assistance specialist (para. 4.17) has been costed at US$55,000 per man-year before contingencies. Customs Duties and Taxes 5.04 Items imported directly for the project by the MOE Project Planning Section would be exempted from customs duties and taxes. However, most of the 1/ For example, presently the PPS is evaluating the appropriateness and cost-effectiveness of facilities design in past and existing projects. Recommendations of this study will be incorporated in new project facilities.  - 24 - building material to be used and fuel and vehicles for transport would be acquired by contractors on the open market and subject to duties and taxes that are estimated at US$1.6 million equivalent. Contingency Allowances 5.05 For physical cost increases, 10% has been added to the base cost of civil works, and 5% to the base cost of furniture, equipment, vehicles, technical assistance and project administration. Estimated price increases are based upon the application of the following annual percentage rates of price escalation to the base cost date (November 1978) and in accordance with the implementation schedule (Annex 1, Chart 3). Furniture, Equipment, Vehicles Technical Assistance and Year Civil Works Project Administration 1978 8 % 7 % 1979 7.5% 6.5% 1980-85 7 % 6.0% Foreign Exchange Component 5.06 The foreign exchange component of US$8.3 million equivalent has been calculated as follows: (a) civil works, 48%; (b) furniture, 23%; (c) equipment and vehicles, 90%; (d) technical assistance, 80%; and (e) project administration and monitoring, 65%. The foreign exchange component reflects the fact that most of the building materials still have to be imported and the cost of fuel and vehicles for local transport has greatly increased. Financial Plan 5.07 An IDA credit of US$12.0 million equivalent would represent 75% of the total project cost of US$16.0 million including duties and taxes or 83% of the project cost net of taxes. It would finance the foreign exchange component and 48% of the local currency component. (US$ Million equivalent) Category Government IDA Total 1. Civil Works 2.51 5.86 8.37 2. Furniture 0.06 0.59 0.65 3. Equipment and vehicles 0.02 1.15 1.17 4. Technical assistance 0.01 0.05 0.06 5. Project Administration, Studies, Monitoring and Evaluation 0.19 0.44 0.63 6. Unallocated 1.21 3.91 5.12 Total 4.00 12.00 16.00 (of which taxes) 1.64 1.64  - 25 - 5.08 In any Government fiscal year during project implementation the maximum Government contribution to the project, inclusive of taxation, is not expected to exceed US$2.2 million equivalent. This figure is less than 1/2% of the 1977/78 Development Budget of Tanzania or about 4% of the education capital budget. The recurrent expenditures generated by the project would be about 2% of the estimated total expenditure of MOE in 1982/83. VI. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION, PROCUREMENT AND DISBURSEMENT Implementation 6.01 The project will be implemented over a period of about six years, including six months for completion of payments and withdrawals. This schedule takes account of the experience gained with previous Bank Group- assisted education projects in Tanzania (para. 3.02). 6.02 The Project Planning Section (project unit) will perform adminis- trative and professional services for the sixth education project. The PPS is an administrative and architectural/engineering unit established within MOE for the implementation of the last three of the previous five education projects assisted by the Bank Group in Tanzania as well as other investment programs in the sector. The PPS has performed well and is presently staffed with about 40 professionals and has adequate supporting staff. The PPS is receiving major technical assistance from DANIDA in particular, and from NORAD. Other projects administered by the PPS include projects sponsored mainly by DANIDA, the United Nations High Commission for Refugees and SIDA. 6.03 The Government has recently concluded an agreement whereby the ongoing DANIDA technical assistance including a local staff development plan will be extended by 22 man years beginning January 1979. Both DANIDA and NORAD are expected to extend their technical assistance to the PPS to cover the implementation period of the proposed sixth education project. The Government gave assurances that the staff provided for the PPS will be retained throughout the period of project implementation and that local staff will be assigned for adequate training in a timely fashion. 6.04 To ensure that the procurement of equipment for the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare institutions included in the project will be effec- tively pursued, a representative of the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare will be appointed to provide liaison between the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare and the PPS. Arrangements for effective liaison on procurement matters will be by mutual agreement of the two Ministries, but PPS will con- tinue to be the official procurement agency and channel of communication with the Association on all project matters. The Government gave assurances that it will provide a plan for clearly defining tasks, lines of reporting and decision making, financing, and local staff training for the project imple- mentation arrangements between the relevant ministries to the Association for review and comment by June 1, 1979, or such later date as may be acceptable to the Association, and thereafter implement this plan.  - 26 - Architectural/Engineering Services 6.05 The PPS will be responsible for the design, preparation of tender documents and supervision of construction works and procurement of furni- ture, vehicles and equipment. Similar tasks have been already carried out successfully by PPS for previous Bank Group-assisted education projects. Repetition of design already used and found adequate will be used whenever appropriate. Due to overlapping of projects and accumulation of tasks, PPS may find it necessary to call upon consultants, particularly of elec- trical and mechanical engineering. Approximately US$230,000 equivalent is provided in the total project cost for such services. The Government gave assurances that consultants will be selected with qualifications and terms and conditions of contract satisfactory to the Association. Sites 6.06 Sites are available and owned by the Government for all proposed project institutions. In cases where sites have to be allocated no difficul- ties are forecast. The Government gave assurances that sites satisfactory to the Bank Group will be provided in accordance with the project implementation schedule (Annex 1, Chart 3). Building Industry 6.07 The total value of construction in Tanzania was reported to be about T. Shs. 718 millions (US$90 million equivalent) in 1975. In real terms, the maximum annual value of construction of about T. Shs. 40 million in fiscal year 1981/82 under the project would represent less than 3% of the 1975 output of buildings. 6.08 The average annual growth reported for the construction industry in Tanzania was 0.1% for the years 1972-76, while it was minus 3.5% for the years 1974-76. This unsatisfactory trend appears to have halted in 1977 with signs of recovery in 1978. Construction cost increases over 1972-1976 were erratic ranging from 15% to 75% per annum. The increase was largely due to world inflation, tax and wage increases. Currently, price increases in the con- struction industry appear to follow international price trends with an annual increase below 10%. The major constraints in the construction sector are: a) shortage of construction materials imported and distributed by a Government supply company; b) high cost of transport, and c) shortage of skilled manpower. In spite of the priority reserved in public projects to a Government building construction company a large portion of construction projects are implemented by private domestic and foreign companies. Due to the sufficient number of contracting firms operating in Tanzania, acceptable bidding competition is expected as experienced in previous Bank Group-financed projects. Procurement and Disbursement 6.09 Contracts for civil works, furniture, equipment, including vehi- cles, will be awarded on the basis of International Competitive Bidding in accordance with Bank Group guidelines for procurement except as follows:  - 27 - (i) construction of the MANTEP (estimated at US$100,000); (ii) furniture, vehicles and equipment contracts costing less than US$100,000 equivalent each; and (iii) local transportation of equipment and furniture. Contracts for those items (i, ii and iii) will be awarded by competitive bidding, advertised locally and in accordance with local procedures satisfactory to the Bank Group. 6.10 Sketch design, draft tender documents and master lists of furniture and equipment, including proposed grouping, will be reviewed by the Bank Group. Items will be grouped to the extent practicable to encourage com- petitive bidding and to permit bulk procurement. Review of tender evaluation documents by the Bank Group prior to award will not be required for building construction contracts costing less than US$250,000 equivalent each and for furniture and equipment contracts costing less than US$100,000 equivalent each. 6.11 Qualified domestic building contractors will be allowed a prefer- ential margin of 7.5% over bid prices of competing foreign contractors, and domestic manufacturers of furniture and equipment will be allowed a prefer- ence of 15% or the existing rate of import duties whichever is lower, over the c.i.f. price of competing foreign suppliers. 6.12 Disbursement (Annex 1 Table 11) will be on the basis of: (a) 100% of foreign expenditures for technical assistance, consultant services, stud- ies, monitoring and evaluation and directly imported furniture, equipment and vehicles; (b) 90% of the ex-factory cost of furniture, equipment and vehicles if locally manufactured; (c) 90% of total expenditures for local transportation of equipment and furniture; (d) 85% of total expenditures for imported furniture, equipment and vehicles procured locally, off-the-shelves; and (e) 70% of total expenditures for civil works, project administration, and of local expenditures for technical assistance consultant services, studies, evaluation and monitoring. Disbursements will be fully documented except for those concerning (i) local transportation of equipment and furniture, and (ii) project administration, studies, evaluation and monitoring. Disbursements for these items (estimated at US$1.1 million equivalent including contingencies) will be made on the basis of a certificate of expenditure, documentation for which will not be submitted to the Bank Group but retained by the Government and available for review in the course of project supervision. 6.13 The project is expected to be completed by December 31, 1984, with a proposed Credit Closing Date of June 30, 1985, which includes six months for completion of payments and withdrawals of the proceeds of the credit. VII. BENEFITS AND RISKS 7.01 The principal benefits of the proposed project can be summarized under the general headings of consolidation and quality improvement; access and equity; critical skills development; and institution building.  - 28 - Consolidation and Qualitative Improvement 7.02 The project will consolidate and strengthen the existing NVTP by providing much needed equipment and accommodations in two existing VTCs. The quality of instruction will also be improved through the development of a vocational and technical education ITC which will offer both in-service and pre-service training to existing and prospective staff of the VTCs and other skill training institutions (paras 4.06-4.08). Access and Equity 7.03 The project will promote the equality of educational opportunity for women in the area of vocational and technical education by providing hostels for women at the four existing technical secondary schools. This will increase female participation in secondary technical education from 3% to 25% by 1983. Geographical equity will also be promoted by this proj- ect through the addition of boarding facilities to facilitate access for rural students at two VTCs. While geographic and sex discrimination will be reduced by increasing access, overall enrollments in the technical sec- ondary schools will remain stable during this period of program consolida- tion and qualitative improvement (para 4.10). Critical Skills Development 7.04 The project will support an increase in the output of middle level accountancy manpower. This will be accomplished by enlarging the facilities at the DSA to realize an increased output of technical and sub-professional accountants at the DSA by 70% over a five-year period (para 4.11). 7.05 While the proposed vocational and technical education ITC will serve the important function of qualitative improvement through staff up- grading, it will also contribute to an increment of manpower (instructional staff) for vocational education nationwide. This increase of instructors will be important given the Government's planned expansion of the NVTP through the addition of three new vocational training centers. The expansion, financed through bilateral assistance, will take place over the next five years (para 3.07). Institution Building 7.06 The institutional capacity for training managers and administrators of the education sector has been minimal (para. 1.08), with systematic training taking place outside the country. The project will address this management training problem by institutionalizing a local capacity for con- ducting continuous in-service and pre-service training for education manage- ment personnel. This local capacity will be installed through the re- habilitation of a facility at the existing Bagamoyo College of National Education; and the provision of technical assistance to develop education management training curricula, and the development of a core staff of about  - 29 - ten management trainers to launch the program. This institution will be capable of providing in-service training to a range of education sector officers, from Regional Education Officers to Primary School Head Teachers, at a rate of 500 persons per year trained in 1-3 month courses. In addition to institutionalizing the training of management personnel for the education sector, the project will provide institutional development support to the Institute of Education through technical assistance to: i) strengthen the project evaluation capacity of the Institute, particularly to assist in the development of a long-term monitoring and evaluation system for Bank Group- assisted education projects; and ii) to prepare a long-term development plan for the Institute based upon an assessment of national curriculum development, research, and related training needs (paras. 4.19). Risks 7.07 The project emphasis on consolidation and quality improvement minimizes the normal risks of overproduction and misallocation associated with projects focusing on the expansion of the sector. Where expansion is the goal it has been with a focus on specific critical skill areas, e.g., bookkeepers, accountants and craftsmen. The major risk in this project lies more in its technical execution than in the substantive areas chosen for support. Although three Ministries (Finance, Labor and Education) are involved in the project, the thrust of implementation rests with the Project Planning Section of the Ministry of National Education, therefore, close interministerial coordination at the critical stages of design, tendering and procurement will be necessary (para. 6.04) In addition, funds have been placed in the project to insure an ongoing monitoring and evaluation process (para. 4.20). VIII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION 8.01 Agreement was reached with the Government on the following principal points: (a) staffing of the project institutions and staff development plans (paras 4.08, 4.12, 4.15, 6.03, and 6.05); (b) technical assistance, studies, monitoring and eval- uation (paras 4.08, 4.13, 4.17, 4.20, 6.03, and 6.05); and (c) project implementation arrangements (paras. 4.17, 6.04 and 6.06).  - 30 - 8.02 A condition of disbursement for civil works, furniture and equip- ment contracts for the Dar-es-Salaam School of Accountancy will be that the Borrower shall have adopted a plan of action adequate to ensure the efficient training of accountants in Tanzania (para. 4.13). 8.03 The project is suitable as a basis for a credit of US$12 million equivalent to the United Republic of Tanzania on standard IDA terms.  UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA SIXTH EDUCATION PROJECT Past and Projected Enrollments in Public and Private Schools, 1967-1990 Projection 1967 1970 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1980 1985 1990 Government Primary Schools ' Standard 1 157,196 172,576 226,071 231,350 473,067 542,974 540,173 947,890 506,300 586,700 680,200 Standard 2 146,943 152,234 199,119 221,350 232,395 449,969 537,544 548,395 955,700 541,200 627,400 Standard 3 140,879 141,734 174,328 204,164 212,416 242,726 445,467 487,652 873,500 509,600 590,800 Standard 4 132,973 138,458 153,169 186,289 187,258 210,244 213,718 386,352 537,500 480,000 556,400 Standard 5 60,956 88,634 133,300 169,124 165,253 185,384 207,989 228,530 478,000 466,000 540,200 Standard 6 54,036 68,714 116,593 154,826 152,426 163,328 183,520 194,587 386,400 452,600 524,500 Standard 7 51,460 65,624 103,807 152,686 137,965 150,013 162,018 176,367 228,500 899,200 509,200 Standard 8_1 8,671 - - - - - - - TOTAL 773,114 827,974 1,106,387 1,320,145 1,572,849 1,944,638 2,290,449 2,968,773 3,965,900 3,935,300 4,028,600 Government and Private Secondary Schools Form 1-4 29,811 38,085 43,395 46,303 49,184 53,257 56,737 59,589 65,113 88,162 121,019 Form 5-6 1,731 3,093 3,730 3,994 3,963 3,886 3,868 3,868 3,949 4,347 4,765 Total 31,542 41,178 47,125 50,297 53,147 57,143 60,605 63,457 69,062 92,509 125,784 Form 1 9,226 10,393 12,312 13,232 13,700 14,376 15,260 16,323 18,209 24,770 34,162 x Form 4 5,460 8,727 9,586 10,222 10,640 11,798 13,043 13,461 14,309 19,242 26,231 Form 6 816 1,438 1,788 1,913 1,976 1,946 1,924 1,929 1,946 2,147 2,348 17 Enrollments are for government schools only; however, private primary school enrollments accounted for only about 20,000 in 1977. 2/ Standard 8 discontinued after 1967. Source: Enrollments from the 1976 Manpower Report to the President, and from the Ministry of National Education; projected enrollments represent World Bank Group staff estimates. November 1978  UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA SIXTH EDUCATION PROJECT Past and Proiected Government Recurrent Expenditure on Education and Training (Millions of Shillings) 1982/83 Projected Recurrent Costs Corrent Prices (in 1976/77 Prices) 1976/77 Average Annual Alternative Hypotheses Approved 1977/78 Growth Rates A B C 1969/70 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 Estimate Estimate 1972-76 1976-77 (Optimistic) (Intermediate) (Pessimistic) Administration & Genera l Ministry of Education 14.6 15.6 16.6 10.7 15.7 34.8 23.7 24.9 31.3 21.2 13.6 43.5 38.8 38.8 Regional Expenditures 7.0 10.9 19.2 15.7 18.5 18.0 32.8 29.3 29.3 Primary Education Ministry of Education 124.3 140.0 171.0 13.0 12.8 24.0 20.8 18.0 19.3 17.3 51.7 35.1 31.3 31.3 Regional Expenditures 136.5 182.7 218.6 288.1 361.7 556.6 1 770.4 770.4 952.5 Secondary/Technlcal/Commercial/ Agricultural/Home Economics 57.7 58.1 65.0 70.9 88.2 107.5 111.6 138.2 145.3 16.3 5.1 164.1 164.1 164.1 Teacher Training 15.0 17.8 19.5 24.6 32.3 34.4 43.3 46.6 96.4 19.0 111.1 87.1 87.1 87.1 Higher Education 32.7 42.0 45,8 51.9 68.4 96.3 106.6 115.3 123.3 20.3 6.9 194.6 173.6 173.6 Adult Education Ministry of Education .7 7.8 11.0 8.1 18.2 23.0 21.3 12.4 13.5 61.02/ 54.52/ 54.52/ 1 Regional Expenditures 15.3 17.2 21.7 19.8 26.1 65.0 34.2 87.0 74.6 66.5 66.5 Folk Development Colleges - - - - - - - 9.0 10.9 Total 245.0 281.3 328.9 331.0 446.4 579.5 680.9 771.0 1079.6 18.6 40.0 1,463.2 1,416.2 1,598.3 Ministry of Education 172.7 235.6 320.0 357.3 364.4 440.0 20.7 585.4 550.0 550.0 Devolved to Region 158.3 210.8 259.5 323.6 406.6 639.6 57.3 877.8 866.2 1,048.3 Other Ministries Finance - - - 1.8 3.1 5.4 9.0 11.2 12.4 Health 1.9 3.3 1.8 9.0 6.7 18.8 21.6 27.2 27.6 Home Affsirs 8.1 7.2 7.4 10.0 13.0 8.1 3.4 5.1 10.1 Agriculture 20.3 31.1 29.8 36.3 33.2 18.9 27.5 25.9 30.6 137.1 122.3 122.3 Culture 3.1 3.2 3.1 5.0 1.7 3.3 2.b 2.9 5.2 Devolved to Region 1/ - - - - - 5.2 3.3 5.5 6.9 Manpower Development- 4.1 5.0 5.2 4.8 6.9 6.2 1.8 9.4 11.1 Labor & Social Welfare .7 - - 1.3 1.8 2.6 3.7 5.4 5.4 Other 25.5 17.2 17.6 26.2 31.1 44.2 22.6 32.9 13.1 TOTAL 308.7 348.3 396.8 425.4 543.9 691.7 776.4 896.5 1232.3 17.7 37.5 l.600.3 % of Government Recurrent Exp. 20.2 21.3 22.3 19.1 19.5 17.5 20.9 21.4 28.0 24.8 26.7 29.9 ta X of GDP 4.14 5.60 4.49 4.20 4.70 5.00 4.70 4.60 5.35 5.78 6.23 7.00 - 1/ Previously Central Establishments. 2/ Including Folk Development College. Source: Ministries of Finance, National Education and World Bank Group staff estimates. Projection Methodology: Alternative A assumes real GDP growth a 67. per annum; Alternatives B and C assume real GDP growth at 4% per annum; also Alternative C allows for a 3.6% per annum real growth in the unit costs of UPE. For further explanation, refer to the text. November 1978  UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA SIXTH EDUCATION PROJECT Expenditures on Education and Training in Relation to Total Government Expenditures (Millions of Shillings) Current Prices Approved Average Annual Actual Estimate Estimate Growth Rates 1969/70 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 197b/75 l97-576 1976/77 1977 77 1972-76 1)76-77 (%) RECURRENT Ministry of Education 245.0 281.3 328.9 172.7 235.6 320.0 357.3 364.4 440.0 o 40 Regional Expenditures 158.3 210.8 259.5 323.6 406.6 639.6 ) 18.6 4 Other Ministries 63.7 67.0 67.9 94.4 97.5 112.2 95.5 125.5 152.7 13.1 21.7 1. Total 308.7 348.3 396.8 425.4 543.9 691.7 776.4 896.5 1232.3 17.7 37.5 Central Government Revenue 1576.9 1683.1 1859.2 2356.6 3022.9 3945.9 3918.5 4562.9 4761.5 2. Expenditures 1526.7 1631.4 1780.6 2226.2 2785.0 3961.1 3715.6 4183.2 4400.2 18.6 5.2 CAPITAL Ministry of Education 29.3 46.3 35.2 34.9 26.1 32.4 92.6 203.9 179.1 ) 47.8 -2.9 Regional Expenditures 9.6 20.5 44.3 52.8 44.3 61.5 J Other Ministries 21.2 25.1 29.1 45.2 34.2 59.7 55.0 134.0 131.2 35.7 -2.1 3. Total 50.5 69.6 63.6 89.7 80.8 136.4 200.4 382.2 371.8 43.1 -2.6 1 Central Government 4. Expenditures 610.5 829.2 834.4 956.o 1642.2 2225.0 2253.0 3145.0 3860.o 30.4 22.7 TOTAL RECURRENT AND CAPITAL 5. Total Central Government Expenditures (2+4) 2137.7 2460.4 2635.6 3182.2 4427.2 6186.1 5968.6 7328.2 8260.2 22.7 12.7 6. Total Expenditures on Education (1+3) 359.2 417.9 460.4 515.1 624.7 828.1 976.8 1278.7 16o4.1 22.7 25.5 7. GDP (at factor cost current prices) 71460.o 6215.0 8845.0 10130.0 11531.0 13836.0-/ 16534.01 19502.02 23032.0-/ 17.1 18.1 6 as a %of 7 4.8 6.7 5.2 5.1 5.4 6.0 5.9 6.6 7.0 1 as a % of 2 20.2 21.3 22.3 19.1 19.5 17.5 20.9 21.4 28.0 K 1/Provisional 0 2 Estimated at 6% p.a. real growth (BER) and 12.1% increase in GDP price inflator. O SOURCES: Ministries of Finance and National Education and World Bank Group staff estimates. November 1978  UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA S1TH m)DUCATION PRlOJECT A tional Hanpower Reauirements bv Skdll Cateaor-r 1975 - 1990 (wage and salarY e4ployment only) 1975 - 1980 1981 - 1985 1986 - 1990 A B C A a C A B C Agriculture 140 40 400 150 100 880 170 110 1,000 Mining 30 30 170 10 40 220 20 90 480 Manufacturing 850 730 11,250 340 670 10,000 480 940 14,090 Utilit$es 480 1,260 15,300 260 1,540 20,300 460 2,760 36,360 Construction 300 210 5,750 120 320 2,650 140 370 3,100 Commerce 190 380 3,900 70 350 3,500 90 480 4,750 Transport and 340 890 6,450 100 550 3,850 120 630 4,470 Communications Finance 390 790 2,700 180 1,030 3,330 300 1,740 5,640 Public Administra- 7,660 46,100 28,180 1,920 19,400 11,600 2,190 22,130 13,250 tion and Services Total Revised Estimate 10,380 50.430 74.100 3.150 24.000 56.330 3.970 29 250 83.140 Of whichs current vacancies 3,550 5,281 10,806 citisenization 1,918 845 3,329 Government Manpower 8,276 28,556 58,892 Development Plan (1975-80) Source: Based on the Government Manpower Development Plan (1975-80) and World Bank Group staff estimates of sectoral growth trends to 1990. November 1978  UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA SIXTH EDUCATION PROJECT Aditional Reauirements of Accountancy Skills and Craftsman of Skill Category C 19(5-1990 (wa,e and salary eamloyment only) 1975 - 1980 1981 - 1985 1986 - 1990 Accountancy Skills Aecountane y Skills Accountancy Skills Profes- Sub-Pro- Techni- Craftsmen Profmes- Sub-Pro- Techni- Craftsmen Profes- Sub-Pro- Techni- Craftsmen dional fessional cian (C) sionul fessional cian (C) sional fesuional cian (C) (A) (B) (C) (A) (B) (C) (A) (B) (C) Agriculture 5 10 125 70 5 20 220 170 5 20 250 190 Mining 5 5 15 100 0 5 10 150 5 10 30 350 Manufacturing 65 155 1,070 7,410 30 80 730 7,420 40 110 1,030 10,470 Utilities 25 55 180 14,170 15 40 170 19,020 20 70 300 34,100 Construetion 50 100 305 1,020 20 65 280 1,920 20 70 320 2,200 Commerce 30 185 640 390 10 90 430 400 20 120 580 540 Transport and Coiiuni- 25 60 965 2,750 10 20 470 1,780 10 30 550 2,100 cations Finance 65 140 380 280 30 90 330 410 50 150 570 690 Public Administration 260 620 2,250 8,180 70 190 810 3,610 80 220 920 4,110 and Other Services Total Revised Estimate 530 1.330 5 930 34 370 190 600 3 450 34 880 250 800 4.550 54,750 Of which& current vacancies 180 421 1,498 2,663 citizenisation 89 228 695 1,738 Government Manpower 474 1,191 5,351 31,138 - Development Plan 1 (1975-80) 0 {- Source: Based on the Government Manpower Development Plan (1975-80) and World Bank Group staff estimates of sectoral growth trends to 1990. November 1978  - 36 - Annex 1, Table 6 UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA Sixth Education Proiect MEETING MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS FOR THE MODERN SECTOR-! (1975-1990) skill level skill level skill level C B A At 1976 level education intakes Intake p.a. (1976 level) 17,950 8,500 1,280 Passing 14,360 6,800 1,020 Continuing to next level -8,500 -1,280 -- Failures from higher levels +1,700 +260 0 Annual skill output implied 7,560 5,780 1,020 Annual requirement (1975-1990) 13,350 6,480 1,090 Manpower surplus (+)/deficit (-) -40% -10% -5% At 1980 level education intakes Intake p.a. (1980 level) 22,750 12,440 1,680 Passing 18,200 9,950 1,340 Continuing to next level -12,440 -1,680 -- Failures from higher levels +2,490 +340 0 Annual skill output implied 8,250 8,610 1,340 Annual requirement (1975-1990) 13,350 6,480 1,090 Manpower surplus (+)/deficit (-) -40% +30% +20% 1/ An overall pass rate of 80% is assumed. Source: Annual intakes are based on information from the 1976 Manpower Report to the President. Skill level C refers to Form 1 intakes or equivalent four-year programs (including vocational training) which are expected to grow at 6.1% per annum over 1976-80. Skill level B refers to Form 5 intakes and equivalent level preservice training which grew at 16.1% per annum over 1972-76 and is expected to grow at 10% per annum through 1980. Skill level A refers to university or equivalent level training which is expected to grow at 7% per annum over 1976-80 based on recent trends. November 1978  TANZANIA SIXTH EDUCATION PROJECT VOCATIONAL INSTRUCTORS AND INDUSTRIAL TRAINERS Estimated Needs and Supply (1980-1990) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1990 NVTP NEED Vocational Training Centers 65 105 110 130 140 150 159 201 Company Training Centers 20 24 30 35 42 50 53 67 Evening Courses 40 80 120 180 200 200 212 269 NVTP STAFF REQUIREMENTS 125 209 260 345 382 400 424 537 Stock 100 120 138 154 170 193 202 578 L Stock less 10% Attrition 90 108 124 140 153 172 181 520 Accessions 30 30 30 30 30 30 130 130 New Stock 120 138 154 170 183 202 311 650 Shortage/Surplus -5 -71 -106 -175 -199 -198 -113 +113 OTHER NEED Mission Trade Schools 50 53 56 60 63 67 71 90 TAPA Technical Schools 80 85 90 96 102 108 114 153 Post-Primary Technical 50 53 56 56 63 67 71 90 w~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ OTHER SURPLUS/SHORTAGE -180 -191 -202 -212 -228 -242 -256 -333 TOTAL SURPLUS -185 -262 -308 -387 -417 -440 -369 -220 m Source: NVTP Data World Bank Group staff estimates. November 1978  REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA Sixth Education Project ACCOUNTANCY SKILLS: EXPECTED ANNUAL OUTPUTS BY YEAR AND BY INSTITUTION Expected Annual Output Annual Requirements Level/Institution 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1975i-g0 1982-Q Professional IFM -- -- 10 13 16 18 23 25 IDM -- -- -- -- 2 2 2 2 Overseas -- -- -- -- -- -- 2 4 Nyegezi Social Training Center -- -- -- -- 10 10 10 10 Total for Employment -- -- 10 13 28 30 37 41 60 100 (NBAA estimate) (41) (40) (65) (67) (70) (73) Subprofessional IFM __ -- 20 24 29 34 34 39 IDM 23 107 65 83 59 74 74 90 University of D'Salaam 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 Coop. and Zonal Colleges 40 49 39 39 39 39 39 39 Nyegizi Social Training Center 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 Dar School of Accountancy -- -- 64 64 64 64 64 64 Private 24 24 32 40 40 40 40 40 Wastage from higher levels -- -- 5 7 8 9 12 13 Minus candidates for higher levels -41 -68 -82 -92 -86 -92 -93 -100 Total for Employment 94 160 191 213 201 216 218 233 171) 149 (NBAA estimate) (43) (106) (160) (168) (195) (182) w Technician Level Cooperative College 24 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 St. Joseph's C. C. 24 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 College of Business Education 84 66 90 88 120 120 120 120 Shinyanga.Commercl l Institute -- 18 68 68 68 68 68 68 Dar School of Accountancy -- -- 254 384 384 384 384 384 DSA Mbeya (storekeeping) -- -- 68 68 68 68 68 68 Wastage from higher levels 34 57 67 75 70 75 75 80 Minus candidates for higher levels -68 -114 -134 -150 -280 -300 -300 -300 Total for Employment 98 123 509 629 526 511 511 511 870 1,313 (NBAA estimate) (0) (0) (164) (203) (280) (280) _ Source: Enrollment and expected output figures obtained directly from IFM, IDM, Dar School of Accountancy, Shinyanga Commercial Institute; other enrollment and output information from various Manpower Reports to the President and World Bank Group staff estimates. The 1982-90 requirements represent 1975-90 requirements net of the 1975-82 expected supply. November 1978  TANZANIA PROPOSED SIXTR EDUCATION PROJECT SUMMARY OF ENROLLMENT AND ESTIMATED PR0JECT COSTS (in T.Shg. and US$ 000's) (T.Sha.8.00 - uS$1.00) No. of Student Boarding Staff Total Area Building Construction Eqoipmnao Total Adr.iistrotioo Places Flaces Houses io H2 of Site Acodr=ic & Staff & Physical TCchoical and Totol N_, P-Folet Itoms Add Final Add Final Add Fioal Nan Construction Work Co-s,enal Boarding Ho-iang Total Furniture Vehiclas Facilitirs Assistnnao MonitorinR T. Shn. Us$ Vocational TroininR Canters 1. Tango - 300 150 150 15 15 2,422 N36 428 2,464 ',678 5,570 557 764 7,727 7,727 966 2. MuRaza - 300 150 150 12 15 2,422 939 481 2,771 3,009 6,261 626 764 8,590 8,590 1,074 Instructor Trainitn Center 3. Norogoro 160 160 160 160 5 5 4,237 2,596 4,554 4,914 914 10,382 1,038 2,472 16,488 16,488 2,061 Technical Secondary Schoals 4. Ifunda - 760 160 700 - - 1,074 313 - 3,126 - 3,126 353 136 3,928 3,928 491 5. Moshi _ 720 160 660 - - 1,074 297 _ 2,960 - 2,968 337 136 3,738 3,730 467 6. Mtvora _ 640 160 5B0 - - 1,074 305 - 3,050 - 3,050 345 136 3,836 3,836 480 7. TCngo - 660 160 600 - - 1,074 278 - 2,781 - 2,781 318 136 3,513 3,513 439 School of Accountancy 8, DBres olanIE 560 1,015 428 B00 22 22 9,312 3,458 8,340 10,931 3,780 23,051 1,449 1,340 29,298 29,298 3,662 MANTEP 9. Bagamoyo - 2.768 - - - - - - 750 - - 750 200 3,461 4,411 440 4,851 606 10. froinct Adinistrattion and -oaitocina and Study 5.066 5.066 633 . Bose Cost of Itens 1-10 (Banad on Nove=ber 1978 prices) 720 7,323 1,528 3,800 57 57 22,689 9,022 14,553 33,005 10,381 57,939 5,223 9,345 81,529 440 5,066 87,035 10,879 CoaftinaRnoin Physical Increase 10/. 107 107. 10% 10% 5% 5 57. 5% Physi-l Inorsos- 902 1.455 3.301 1.038 5.794 261 467 7.424 22 253 7.699 962 Sob-Tatal 9,924 16,008 36,306 11,419 63,733 5,484 9,812 08,953 462 5,319 94,734 11,841 Prioe ITorrane 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 33% 33% 20% 32% Price Incrense 3 573 5.763 13.070 4.111 22.944 1.810 3.238 31.565 92 1.702 33.359 4.170 Project Total 13,497 21,771 49,376 15,530 86,677 7,294 13,050 120,518 554 7,021 128,093 16,011 (Including contig.enc.es sad tanes) Forrign Exchanga Co.pocrut In % 48% 48% 48% 48% 48% 23% 90% 80% 65% En T. Shi. 6,479 10,450 23,700 7,455 41,605 1,678 11,745 61,507 443 4,564 66,514 or 52% In U5S 810 1.306 2.963 932 5,201 210 1,468 7,689 55 570 8,314 t Ranron: Wald Bank Group astff .0 N_o_ebat 1978  - 40 - COMPARATIVE EDUCATION INDICATORS Annex 1, Table 10 Page 1 of 2 NOVEMBER 1978 GNP/ % GNP :% TOTAL:% OF PUBLIC :PRI. :AV.PRI. 1 SEC I :CAPITA: DEVOTED:PUBLIC EDUCATION :LITER- P RI. :COMPLE- :STU- :SCH.TEACH:PROGRESS-: SEC. :STu- :HIGHER: AT TO EDU. : EXP. RECURRENT :ACY' :ENROLL:TION :DENTS:SALARY IN:ION RATE :ENROLL:DENTS:ENROLL: :MARKET1 (PUBLIC:OEVCTED:EXP ALLOCATED: RATE :RATIO :RATE FOR:PER :RELATION :FROM PRI. :RATIO PER :RATIO0 POP. :PRICES: EXP. To TO: I (% OF : NET :PRI.SCH. ITEACHI TO GNP/ :TO SEC.: NET :TEACH- GROSS: YR:MILLS.: (USS): ONLY) EDU. :PRI. SEC. HI. IADULTS): (%) :CYCLE(%):ER CAPITA (5 (%) :ER : M ADVANCED AUSTRIA 74 7.5F 4.870F 5. 3Y 8.5EY 24Y 51Y 1 51 99 98 930 26D 2.00 990 51D 19D 16 .BSY C!7-4T'. 75 27. R 7,1 q9 7.1 1 C.7 3fl 37 26 99 99 97 1 9 2.0 99 90 10e 1 6.00 GERMANY F. REP. 75 61 .9 6,670 5.0 1 0. 2 31EY 64** 26EY 99 90 99 23EV . . . 99Y 84Y' 22C 20 .26Y JAPAN 75 11 1.6 4 ,450 4.3E 20.79 4OUY 37UY IIUY 99 990 99C 25 2. OB 99C 95XY 20C 24 .69Y NETHERLANDS 75 1 3. 7 5.425 9.4 22.40 2 1 39 25 99 95 95 29 2.0 97 80 20 12.00 NEW ZEALAND 73 3.1F 4,2809 5.2 . .. 39 24 29 99 99 99 26 . 99 67 19 24.900 NOR WAY 74 4.OF 6,760F 7.0 15.2 491' 22Y 13Y 99 1O2XY 98 20 1.9 99 9DXY 14 21.31Y' SWEDEN 74 B.2F 8,i5OF 7.9Y' 13.91' 38V 13Y 137 99 990 99C 17C . . 9OC 85C 100 30.OOC U.K. 72 56.OF 3,760F 6.3 12.7 26 39 22 99 99 ... 26 2.0 ... 63 17 11.00 U.S.A. 76 214.6 7,950 5.4 15.8 ... 72-* 28 999 99 99 22 ... 99 93 19 24.00 EUROPE GREECE 76 9.1 2,590 2.6 10.4 37 26 21 969 99 920 31 2.0 TOE s0 27 15.00 IRELAND 74 3.1F 2,390F 5.1 13.90 43Y' 41Y 14Y 98 109EV 99A 35 . .. 95A 65XY 19 15.47Y PORTUGAL 75 9.6 1,570 4.4 17.9 52 27 13 70 98 55 21 3.0 70 29 14 7.60 ROrIANIA 75 21.2 1,240 4.0 6.4 36 19 13 99 IOIX ... 21 ... 98 49 22 10.00 SPAIN 74 35.3F 2,750F 2.4B 15.2A 49Y 22Y 15Y 94A 115EV ... 35A ... ... 78XY 30 17.68Y' AFRICA ALGEPIA 77 16.9 990G 7.5 14.3FY 42 ... 21 35 79X 45 39 4.0 55 26X 13 6.00 SEN'IN 74 3.1F 130F 7.2N 36.OY 470 230 100 110 44XY 708 53Y 25.09 43B 11EV 398 0.74Y BOTSWANA 76 0.7 410 4.0 19.2 53 20 14 3 72X 95 32 3.0 60 12 22 0.30 BURUINDI 74 3.7F 11OF 2.5 19.9Q 47R 41R 12R 10 20E 30? 38 10.0 14 2X 18 1.0 CA-MEROON 73 7.4P 230F 5.9 20.0 3EV 297 1 7Y .. 74 ... SIOY ...... 9 23CY 0.90CY C.A.R. 74 1.SF 220F 3.00 17.00 56B 198 .. ... 79XV 25 69Y . .. 16 8EV 279V 0.21Y CHAD 75 4.0 120 3.0 10.0 78 22 .. 15 29XBY 30 65BY 15.0 8 2XBY 30 0.018Y CONGO(S) 74 1.3F SlOF 6.0 19.3 40 32 21 50? 133X 63 63 6.0 49 33X 22 3.40 EGYPT 76 38.2 310 S.9N ... 30 32 25 44 76 B0 31 . 79 45 20 12.00 ETHIOPIA 76 29.0 100 2.8 15.8 29 25 10 7 21 . .. 50 ... 63 8 34 . GABON 74 O.5F 2,540F 5.00 20.60 250 V0 lID . .. bOOY 25C 46C 5.0 . ISA 31Y 21C 0.297 GAMBIA 76 0.5 1 70 3.3 11.5 46 25 6 10 27 90 33 ... 92 13 25 .. GHANA 74 9.9F 5909 ... 19.7Y 43Y 22Y 20YQ . .. 6OXY 626 30Y . .. 148 3SXY 16CY 1 .09Y GUINEA 76 4.7 18OP 4.34Q .. 30 31 so . .. 30X 64 45 12F 86 13X 26 4.00 IVORY COAST 74 6.7F 540F 6.3 24.7 38V 37Y 18Y 98 86XY 57A 45Y' ... ... 17XY 25C 1.64Y KENYA 76 13.9 240 5.9 26.0 67 23 10 40 80? 60? 34 6.0 30 16 27 1.0 LESOTHO 75 1.2 190 12.OP 23.0 49 18 20 40 85 s0 52 7.0ON 61 10 26 1.00 LIBERIA 75 1.5 410 2.4 13.2 27 15 20 73 S8 ... 35 2.0 ... 12 26 1.IOAY MAnIAGASCAR 74 S.AF 200F 1.32 77 1 91 24 25 40 68X 30 63 15.0 48 SE 26 1.00 MlALAWI 76 5.2 140 .2.4 10.0 42 16 23 25 56EX 17 52 2.4 70 4EX 20 0.26CY MALI 75 5.7F 9OP 4.2M 33.GF 4SF 37F I9F lOF 22XF . .. 4BF 9.5F SOP 6X 21 .. MAURITANIA 71 1.3P 320F 4.1Y 20.GOY.I...D.. 1A 17XV ... 22A .. . ... 3XV 24A8 . MAURITIUS 76 O.9L 690 4.7 12.1 50 26 6 80C 94 99 24 4.5 90 45 32 1.50 MOROCCO 76 18.2 540 8.1 15.2 399 499 139 28 65X 33 40 . 33 17X 22 4.00 NIGERIA 74 75.OF 34CF 4.10Y' 24.20V 231' 16Y 427 . .. 49EY . .. 34DY . ... 10EV 20CY 0.48Y RWANDA 73 4.1F lOOp 3.20 28.00....... 23 52 . .. 51 . . 2 13 0.2309 SENEGAL 74 S.OF 390F 4.ONS 22.509 59RY 42RY . .. boc 53XY .. . 46CY .. .. lIES 255 2.02Y SIERRA LEONE 73 3.OF 220OF 3.4 23.4 31 36 30 15? 34X 45 32 4.OE 68 13X 21 0.538Y SOMALIA 75 3.2 110 3.70 10.80 49Q 16Q 190 507 34X 86 35 10.0 60 3 15 0.10 SUDAN 76 15.9 290 4.5 19.9 46 36 16 20 34 74 33 3.8 33 14 24 1.24 SWAZILAND 75 0.5 470 3.8 -- 38 31 19 s0 73 71 38 3.8 51 24 22 1.00 TANZANIA 76 15.1 180 6.6 1 1 7.49H 429 219 12H 60 93E3 81 49 6.6 6 4X J 19 0.34 TUNISIA 73 5.6F 730F 6.3 23.4 37 43 18 SS 72 81 41 6.0 31 14 21 3.00 UGANDA 75 11.6 230 3.4DY 15.701Y 34EY 4OEY 2297 258 53XY ... 34EY .. . 14A 6XCY 21A 0.56Y' UPPER VOLTA 74 6.OF 11OF 4.0 23.9 59 18 9 SC 14XY . .. 46Y 18.00 20C 2XY 23C 0.15Y ZAIRE 76 25.1 140 6.0 22.0 49 26 25 15 86E 44 42X 2.0 41 13E 27 1.O01 ZAMBIA 76 5.1 440 6.8 15.9 54 22 22 39 97X 80 49 7.0 21 16 23 1.50 CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN BARBADOS 76 0.2 1,620 8.1 22.1 43 31 16 99 105 99 25 3.0 99 84 20 COSTA RICA 75 2.0 960 5.29 22.79 578 259 128 898 109EV 655 298 3.99 589 52XY 259 17.15Y DOMINICAN REP.72 4. 7P 720F 3. 0 13.9 42 24 22 51 80 17 54 3.00 63 13.5 24 7.00 EL SALVADOR 75 4,0 460 3.6 23.8 61 5 22 609 650 ... 39CY . .. 39 13XC 21CY 4.35B? GUATEMALA 73 6,3F STOP 1.9 16.0 55 23 14 47 64 26 35 3.0 69 a 25 4.09Y HAIT-I 76 4.7 200 1.0 9.0 61 21 11 205 2SF 13 56U 3.0 62 4 .. . 0.7 HO~