Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-2142-B0 REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE REPUBLIC OF BOLIVIA FOR AN URBAN DEVELOPMENT PROJECT September 21, 1977 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Bolivian Peso ($b) = US$0.05 US$1.00 = 20.0 ($b) 1 million ($b) = US$50,000 MEASURES AND EQUIVALENTS 1 kilometer (km) = 0.62 mile 1 meter (m) = 3.28 feet (ft) 1 kilogram (kg) = 2.20 pounds (lb) 1 ton = 2,205 pounds FISCAL YEAR January 1 to December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS BANVI Banco de la Vivienda - The Housing Bank BISA Banco Industrial S.A. - The Industrial Bank CONAVI Consejo Nacional de Vivienda - The National Housing Council HAM Honorable Alcaldia Municipal de La Paz - The Municipality of La Paz SAMAPA Servicio Autonomo Municipal de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado - The Autonomous Water Supply and Sewerage Agency of La Paz FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY BOLIVIA URBAN DEVELOPMENT PROJECT LOAN AND PROJECT SUMMARY BORROWER: The Republic of Bolivia BENEFICIARIES: Consejo Nacional de Vivienda (CONAVI), the Municipality of La Paz, Banco Industrial S. A. (BISA) and Banco de la Vivienda (BANVI) AMOUNT: US$17 Million TERMS: 20 years including five years of grace at 8.0% per annum. RELENDING Except for US$4.5 million, all loan funds would be TERMS: relent by the Government to the three beneficiaries mentioned above at the Bank's terms and interest rate plus a 1/4% commission to Banco Central through which the loan would be channelled. PROJECT This first Bank financed urban project in Bolivia is DESCRIPTION: aimed at improving the difficult living conditions of the urban poor and in particular the families living in the lowest-income neighborhoods of La Paz. The project provides serviced plots with core dwellings under a sites and services program, essential urban services in low-income areas under an urban upgrading scheme, retail food markets, credits for artisans and small-scale enterprises to provide jobs and create employment for the project participants, and technical assistance to strengthen institutional arrangements and technical capabilities of the executing agencies. The project is designed so that its benefits will reach down, in the case of urban upgrading, to households as low as 5th percentile of income groups in La Paz. The main risks faced by the project would be those associated with coordination and implementation of a complex project in the social sector. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. - ii - ESTIMATED COST: (US$ Millions) Local Foreign Total Sites and Services 6.9 1.6 8.5 Urban Upgrading 1.1 0.8 1.9 Retail Food Markets 0.2 0.1 0.3 Credits for Artisans and Small-Scale Enter- prises 1.1 2.0 3.1 Technical Assistance 0.5 1.5 2.0 Subtotal 9.8 6.0 15.8 Engineering Supervision and Management 2.2 0.1 2.3 Contingencies a) Physical (11%) 0.8 0.3 1.1 b) Price (31%) 2.5 0.8 3.3 Subtotal 3.3 1.1 4.4 Total Project Cost 15.3 7.2 22.5 FINANCING PLAN: (US$ Million) Bank Govt. BISA TOTAL Sites and Services 9.6 4.0 - 13.6 Urban Upgrading 2.5 0.7 - 3.2 Retail Food Markets 0.4 0.2 - 0.6 BISA Credits 2.6 - 0.5 3.1 Technical Assistance 1.9 0.1 - 2.0 TOTAL 17.0 5.0 0.5 22.5 ESTIMATED DISBURSEMENTS: (US$ Million) FY78 FY79 FY80 FY81 Annual 3.7 7.9 4.7 .7 Cumulative 3.7 11.6 16.3 17.0 - iii - RATE OF RETURN: The economic rate of return for the sites and services and the urban upgrading components (74.8% of the total project cost) is estimated at 18%. APPRAISAL REPORT: Report No. 1625a-BO, dated September 9, 1977. REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE REPUBLIC OF BOLIVIA FOR AN URBAN DEVELOPMENT PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed loan to the Republic of Bolivia for the equivalent of US$17 million to help finance an urban development project. The loan would have a term of 20 years, includ- ing five years of grace, with interest at 8.0% per annum. All except US$4.5 million of the loan would be relent to three executing agencies, Consejo Nacional de Vivienda (CONAVI), the Municipality of La Paz (HAM) and Banco Industrial S.A. (BISA) on the same term and interest rate as the proposed Bank loan, plus a 1/4% commission to Banco Central through which the loan would be channelled. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ Introduction 2. A report entitled "Economic Memorandum on Bolivia" (1546-BO) dated March 23, 1977, was distributed to the Executive Directors. Country data sheets are attached as Annex I. Background 3. Despite the increasing importance of petroleum and natural gas exports, as well as significant mineral deposits, Bolivia remains one of the poorest countries in South America. The majority of its population is engaged in traditional agriculture. Only a small part of the labor force is employed in the modern sectors. The infrastructure is primitive and the road and rail networks cover only a fraction of the country. The combination of strong tra- ditional ties within the indigenous communities and geographic, health and educational obstacles to population mobility has perpetuated the demographic concentration on the inhospitable 3-4 thousand meter plateau, the Altiplano. About half of Bolivia's population lives a physically, culturally and econo- mically isolated subsistence existence in this region, which is rich in mineral deposits but limited in agricultural potential. 4. The 1952 revolution sought to put an end to the dual structure which had characterized Bolivia's economy since colonial times and to deprive the landowning and mining oligarchy of its economic base. This objective was only partially achieved. Progress was made in eradicating feudal relations, distributing the land and eliminating obstacles to social mobility. The agrarian reform and the nationalization of large mines, however, were followed 1/ This section, except for paragraphs 8 and 11, is reprinted from the President's Report on the Third Railway Project for Bolivia (No. P-2065-BO), dated April 29, 1977. - 2 - by falling production. GDP declined in the 1950s and did not recover to its pre-1952 level until 1961. During the subsequent decade, output increased steadily at an average annual rate of around 5%, providing for per capita income increases averaging 2.5% p.a. As a result, GNP per capita, which had fallen by 24% in the 1952-60 period, recovered to its 1952 level by 1970 and was more equally distributed. However, the momentum of economic growth was again lost in 1969/71, when political instability led to declining private investment and deteriorating public finances. The deterioration of public finances reflected a structural problem in the economy. Bolivia's public sector is proportionately one of the largest in South America and a source of livelihood for a sizeable segment of the population. With scarce employment opportunities in the private sector, pressures to expand public employment proved difficult to resist. Large expenditures on wages and salaries, combined with a weak tax system, have limited the resources available for public invest- ment. Moreover, the inability of the public sector to generate adequate savings limited its capacity to utilize available external capital assistance. 5. On coming to power in 1971, President Banzer faced the need to provide jobs for the unemployed and to revitalize investment and growth. Initially, this task was complicated by a sharp deterioration in Bolivia's terms of trade, which produced a weakening in the balance of payments and a further deterioration in public finances, eventually resulting in a substantial devaluation in 1972. However, more rational economic policies were put into effect and a more favorable climate for private investment was established. New laws offering guarantees and incentives to private investors, especially in the hydrocarbon field, were promulgated and claims pending from earlier nationalizations were settled. The Government also improved public adminis- tration and the pricing policies of some public undertakings. These policies were successful in increasing private investment and in bolstering the rate of growth. Recent Economic Developments and Prospects 6. Bolivia's economic performance has continued to be strongly in- fluenced by movements in its terms of trade, which have been particularly volatile in recent years. The sharp increases in petroleum and mineral prices in 1974 resulted in a major terms of trade gain, which led to a dra- matic reversal in the balance of payments and increase in foreign exchange reserves. While GDP increased by about 5%, improvements in the terms of trade helped raise gross domestic income by more than 20%, permitting a substantial increase in both consumption and investment. Moreover, this was accomplished within the context of an unprecedented improvement in public finances. After current deficits in 1970-73, the Central Government achieved savings equivalent to one-third of its capital expenditure. For the public sector as a whole, savings in 1974 exceeded 10% of GDP and covered nearly 90% of capital expendi- ture. On the balance-of-payments side, a near doubling of exports permitted a trade surplus which exceeded tjS$160 million despite a rapid increase in imports. The current account showed a surplus for the first time in decades and net capital inflows approached US$90 million, nearly four times their 1973 level, - 3 - as a result of substantially higher loan disbursements to the public sector and increased foreign investment associated with hydrocarbon exploration. Consequently, foreign exchange reserves rose by a record US$124 million. 7. The extreme dependence of the Bolivian economy on its foreign sector was once more brought into focus in 1975 and early 1976 as, with world eco- nomic recession, the country's terms of trade deteriorated and export volumes declined. Mineral exports fell by well over 20% as the weighted average of mineral prices declined by approximately 13%, and shipments of most minerals fell as a direct result of the recession and the unloading of speculative stock on international markets. The situation was exacerbated by the fact that exportable surpluses of crude petroleum were significantly reduced for the second year in a row due to falling production and rapidly rising domestic consumption of hydrocarbon derivatives. While the export picture was helped by a significant price increase for natural gas exports to Argentina, this could not compensate for the overall decline in export earnings. On the whole, merchandise exports in 1975 declined by 16%. On the other hand, growth of GDP and investment continued unabated as imports rose by about 36% in the wake of the start-up of new public investment projects and the liberalization of imports for consumer durables and motor cars earlier in the year. As a result, the balance-of-payments current account shifted from a surplus of US$150 million in 1974 to a deficit of US$190 million in 1975. Despite further substantial increases in disbursements of medium-term loans to the public sector, net foreign exchange reserves fell by US$54 million to US$134 million, or about 2.5 months of imports. The weakening of the balance of payments was accompanied by a deterioration of the fiscal situation. The Central Government's current surplus decreased to just about 1.7% of GDP, after reaching 2.6% in 1974, and increased borrowing from external sources and the domestic banking system was necessary to finance growing public invest- ment. However, some public utilities strengthened their financial situation due to increased rates. 8. The authorities, reacting to the weakening of the external accounts, took action late in 1975 to tighten trade restrictions. This resulted in a significant reduction of import growth to only 2.0% during 1976. This, together with a recovery in mineral prices and overall merchandise exports, helped reduce the current account deficit by about US$50 million. At the same time, Bolivia continued to attract substantial external capital inflows which enabled it to finance the current account deficit and recoup the foreign exchange reserves lost the preceding year. Conservative income policies applied since 1974 have resulted in a reduction of inflation to an annual rate of about 12% in 1976. The rate of inflation is expected to fall below 10% following the introduction of the Government's fiscal reform and conti- nuation of the tight monetary policies. 9. Economic growth prospects over the medium- to longer-term depend on the Government's ability to increase savings and stimulate investments particularly those for developing hydrocarbon, mineral and agricultural resources. Investment in mining and hydrocarbons is accelerating. Inten- sified exploration for hydrocarbons by the state-owned petroleum company and private foreign companies is underway and may lead to significantly increased production and exports of crude petroleum and natural gas, which could permit an acceleration of economic growth towards the end of the decade. Recent exploration results have been fairly positive, i.e. a new oil field with immediate commercial potential was discovered at Montecristo near Santa Cruz and a private foreign concern made a gas strike in the Abapo-Izozog region in the southeast of the country. Fiscal performance has remained weak during the last two years, with the Central Government performance being adversely affected by the deficits of decentralized agencies and state-owned enterprises. However, the authorities are beginning to implement mining and income tax reforms so as to improve the yields, efficiency and equity of the tax system. Debt Service and Creditworthiness 10. Bolivia's external debt outstanding and disbursed at the end of 1976 amounted to US$1.5 billion and debt service constituted 18.8% of exports of goods and non-factor services net of investment income abroad. The term structure of external debt has worsened as 46% of the external public debt contracted over the last two years has been from commercial banks. Between 1971 and 1976, average maturity has declined from 24 years to 14 years while the average interest rate has increased from about 4.4% to 7% and the grant element has fallen from 36% to 17%. Because of the capital import require- ments associated with development of the mining and hydrocarbon sectors and the long gestation period of these investments, Bolivia's trade gap and current account deficit can be expected to rise for the remainder of this decade. As a consequence, the debt service ratio is expected to increase to about 24% by 1980. However, as investments in these sectors come to fruition, exports will accelerate and import requirements of investment will decline. A gradual fall in the debt service ratio is therefore projected in the 1980s. In view of the nature and growing size of Bolivia's debt, prudence in selecting and utilizing external capital will have to be an essential element of debt management. 11. Bolivia enjoys a substantial resource base in agriculture, minerals and hydrocarbons, which has to be developed to sustain rapid economic growth and, in particular, to achieve a rapid expansion of export earnings in the foreseeable future. If production in the export sectors, particularly mining and hydrocarbons, can be increased and prices for major export products remain adequate, Bolivia can be considered creditworthy for moderate amounts of external lending on conventional terms. The Government, in pursuing its development policies, is making a serious effort to mobilize domestic resources and to secure foreign resources to finance the investment program included in its first five-year economic plan. To this end, the Government submitted to the first Consultative Group Meeting for Bolivia held in Paris last May and to the meeting of private international financial institutions held immediately thereafter, a list of 70 projects and 10 major pre-investment studies. Most of the Governments and international agencies represented expressed interest in financing, on concessionary terms and in varying degrees and amounts, many of the high priority projects included in the list. Nevertheless, either because of their size or scope, some of the projects are outside the interest - 5 - of the Consultative Group members and will require financing from conventional sources. Moreover, implementation of the investment program will require external assistance for high priority projects in excess of their foreign exchange component, in particular, for projects in the agricultural, education, urban and other social sectors where requirements for imported equipment and materials are relatively limited. Although substantially increased suppliers' and financial credits will probably become available, prudent debt management requires that they should cover not more than about a third of the public capital inflows needed during 1977-80 for meeting a GDP growth target of 6% annually. The remainder should be obtained on softer terms from bilateral and international development financing agencies, including the Bank. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN BOLIVIA 12. Although Bolivia is an original member of the Bank, it did not obtain any Bank Group funds until 1964. Bolivia's tight budget constraints and restricted capacity to service external debt had limited Bank Group assistance until recently. Apart from a US$23.3 million Bank loan for a gas pipeline, Bank Group operations until FY75 were exclusively through IDA. Following Bolivia's emergence as a natural gas and petroleum exporter, albeit on a limited scale, IDA's lending was phased out with the Agricultural Credit I Project in June 1975. By July 31, 1977, the Bank Group had approved 21 operations for Bolivia amounting to US$260 million, of which eight have been fully disbursed. Net of undisbursed balances, Bolivia's debt to the Bank and IDA in 1975/76 represented 7.9% of its public debt. The Bank's share of the service on this debt is about 4%. Both figures are expected to increase marginally by 1980. 13. Bank Group lending to Bolivia has assisted in the development of various sectors. US$27.2 million have been for agriculture where our lending has helped the Government to initiate programs for the development of a viable livestock industry, increase agricultural production and improving the living conditions on the Altiplano. The five loans for power, totalling US$53.4 million, have been instrumental in modernizing the sector, expanding electricity services, stabilizing the electricity supply and setting up a regulatory agency. Also, a public power company was set up which has been operated in an efficient and financially sound manner. Two loans and one credit for railways totalling US$75.0 million, of which US$3.3 million were cancelled when the railways obtained funds from bilateral sources to purchase locomotives, have helped to improve the quality of management, efficiency of operations and financial condition of the national railways. A recently approved aviation development loan of US$25 million will assist Bolivia's efforts to provide efficient freight and passenger transportation and to develop agriculture in hitherto isolated areas. Three operations totalling US$28.2 million for medium- and small-scale mining aim at increased production and improved sectoral coor- dination. A loan of US$11.5 million for a water supply and sewerage project is expected to improve services in the main mining cities and 70 rural commu- nities. A loan of US$15 million for an education and vocational training project would assist Bolivia to develop its human resources in a more - 6 - effective and rational way. The project under consideration today would be the first Bank operation to assist Bolivia face up to the serious urban problems and improve the conditions of the urban poor. 14. Because of the narrow scope for private investment, IFC became active in Bolivia only in 1973 through an investment of US$400,000 in a firm producing cables and plastic products. Two IFC investments since then have contributed to the establishment of a local market for long-term securities; an equity participation of up to US$550,000 in Banco Industrial S.A. (BISA) in conjunction with a Bank loan of US$10.0 million for the same institution to assist in financing medium-sized industrial and mining enter- prises, and US$337,500 in Banco Hipotecario Nacional to assist in the deve- lopment of mortgage banking. Annex II contains a summary statement of the status of Bank Group operations in Bolivia as of July 31, 1977, and notes on the status of ongoing projects. 15. Remarkable progress has been made in achieving the goals set for Bank lending to Bolivia. On the macro-economic level, the Government has made important strides towards formulating a coherent and consistent set of overall economic policies. On the sector and project level, public services have been improved and the institutions strengthened. The financial positions of the railroads and power sectors compare favorably with that of similar entities in other developing countries. Also, during the last two years, the Govern- ment has established an excellent record in providing the required counterpart funds for Bank financed projects. Future Bank lending will continue to support Government efforts to establish infrastructure necessary for sustained economic development while simultaneously improving the distribution of the benefits of economic growth. In this context, recent Bank activities have focussed on the less developed regions and the lower income strata of the population. At present, a project for the development of alpaca/llama husbandry to assist subsistence farmers in the Altiplano is at an advanced stage of processing. For the more distant future, further Bank loans for irrigation, agroindustries, highway maintenance, railways, electric energy, forestry, industry and mining are under consideration. PART III - THE URBAN SECTOR Patterns of Urbanization 16. In 1976 about 2.0 million people, or 43% of Bolivia's population, lived in urban centers of more than 2,000 inhabitants compared to 1.3 million people, or 30.5% of the total population, in 1965. The largest growth rates occurred in the main cities of La Paz (3.5% p.a.), Cochabamba (3.9% p.a.) and Santa Cruz (7.3% p.a.). La Paz now has about 655,000 inhabitants and is expected to grow to 750,000 by 1980. Santa Cruz is the second largest city with about 252,000 and Cochabamba is third with 204,000. The total population of the nine departmental capitals has grown from approximately 552,000 in 1950 to almost 1.5 million in 1976 and is expected to reach about 1.7 million in 1980 and more than 4.0 million in the year 2000. - 7 - 17. The pattern of urbanization in Bolivia has developed as a function of existing population concentrations, employment opportunities and the unusually difficult climatic and geographical conditions of the Altiplano and the Valles regions where nearly 80% of Bolivia's population live. Previous migration to the once flourishing mining centers has, with the development of industry and agriculture, given way to increasing flows to the larger cities in the country, primarily to the three cities mentioned above and to Santa Cruz in particular. Much of the gain by these cities can be explained by high expectations of the rural population to find better jobs in cities. Major Urban Problems 18. The Government has not been able to match the growth in urban population with appropriate levels of urban services and adequate housing programs. Although 200,000 new housing units are required to cover the already existing deficit in urban centers, and another 10,000 units are needed every year, only about 2,000 units annually are actually being built. Average cost per unit built by the private sector is estimated at about US$8,600 while that by the public sector is about US$7,000. The least expensive housing unit costs about US$4,750. Hence, not only is new housing scarce but is clearly too expensive for the great majority of the urban population and in particular the urban poor. 19. The lack of basic urban services such as water supply, sewerage, waste disposal and access roads is even more serious because these services usually require official support and substantial resources. Even where special programs have been established, such as those under the Accion Comunal of the Municipality of La Paz, basic urban services have not been provided efficiently nor in sufficient quantities. Less than 57% of the urban popu- lation have access to piped water, many only through standpipes, and less than 23% to any type of sewerage facilities. Living conditions of most low income groups are characterized by make-shift shelters and complete lack or inadequate levels of essential services. Indicative of these conditions and the level of poverty is that average life expectancy in Bolivia is 47 years, infant mor- tality is more than 147 per 1,000 population and 22% of pre-school children suffer from malnutrition. National Urban Policies 20. Although the definition of general goals and objectives in the urban sector is formally the function of the Ministry of Urbanization and Housing, in practice, sector plans and programs are set by the Ministry of Planning and Coordination whose formal function is to review all such plans and, based on this review, to prepare a multi-sectoral development plan. The basis of the Government's urban development plans is to support, in a balanced manner and with appropriate investment, the growth of those areas which can generate economies of scale and expand national markets. A major element of this strategy is to consolidate and strengthen the internal linkages in the country and specifically to encourage the growth of the most important development axis containing the cities of La Paz, Cochabamba and Santa Cruz. - 8 - 21. A number of important steps have been taken by the Government to improve the living conditions in both the rural and urban areas, and in particular those of the low-inc2me groups. In the urban sector, large urban holdings (in excess of 10,000 m ) have been expropriated and redistributed (Urban Reform Law of 1963); the National Housing Council (CONAVI) was estab- lished in 1964 to accelerate the construction of public housing; a new Housing Bank (BANVI) was created in 1974 to promote and coordinate the financial aspects of low-cost housing and infrastructure schemes; and new emphasis has been given to the active participation of low-income groups in the imple- mentation of infrastructure and housing programs for them. 22. The Government has also recognized the shortcomings of its programs in the urban sector in general and with the lower-income groups in particular. Hence, the Government recently decided to increase its financial support to BANVI, to establish new and more appropriate layout and design standards for low-cost housing and infrastructure schemes, and to increase the efficiency and coordination of the institutions in charge of promoting and implementing urban programs. The City of La Paz 23. Located on the western slope of the Andean mountains at an altitude of 3,650 meters, the city of La Paz is severely handicapped by unusually difficult topographical conditions. Most of its residential areas and the business district are located in a narrow valley surrounded by steep slopes that fall about 500 meters off the eastern edge of the Altiplano plateau. These slopes are susceptible to massive mudflows and landslides. Enormous efforts and resources are continuously allocated by the municipality to prevent or at least control the resultant damages. The landslides and mud- flows primarily affect the lower-income groups that have settled on the steep slopes of the city. These settlements in turn aggravate the conditions that cause mudflows and landslides. 24. The population of La Paz is about 655,000 of which 62% live in "irregular housing" in low-income neighborhoods along the periphery of the city or in outright slum areas. Many of the inhabitants of these low-income areas do not have secure tenure to their plots. The population in these areas is growing at about 6% per year compared to 3.5% per year for La Paz as a whole. It is estimated that close to 30% of the labor force is unemployed or severely underemployed, and that only 7% have incomes above US$125 per month compared to the median household income in La Paz of US$175. 25. About 43% of the population of low-income areas are children below 15 years of age and another 27% are in the 15 to 29 age group. About 45% of the population have had no more than some primary schooling, 12% have not re- ceived more than some secondary education and less than 1% have received some higher education. Inflows of population from the rural areas into La Paz are significant and about 37% of the population in the low-income settlements are first generation residents in the city. Of all migrants, 93% have come from the rural communities of the Department of La Paz, mostly in the expectation of finding better employment opportunities. - 9 - 26. La Paz has grown from an area of approximately 533 ha in 1935 to more than 3,800 ha in 1976. The Municipality of La Paz initiated in 1975 a concerted effort to study the urban needs of the city and to propose appropriate solutions; as a result, a growth model for the metropolitan area was completed in July 1976. The model recommends that the future growth of the city should concentrate on the less problematic (in geo-physical terms) areas of El Alto, located in the plateau above La Paz, since most areas in downtown La Paz have been built up. The three axes which were given the highest priority are located on El Alto. The size of the city is projected to increase to about 4,900 ha in 1980 and to 6,550 ha in the year 2000. PART IV - THE PROJECT 27. A report entitled "Appraisal of the Urban Development Project," No. 1625a-BO dated September 9, 1977 is being distributed separately. The project was identified in February 1976 by a Bank mission which visited Bolivia. Project preparation progressed from March 1976 to February 1977 as a joint effort by CONAVI, the Municipality of La Paz and the Bank missions which visited Bolivia. The appraisal mission visited Bolivia from February 1 to 19, 1977. Negotiations were held in Washington from August 1 to 5, 1977. The Bolivian team was headed by Mr. Alberto Valdes, Undersecretary of Coordination, Ministry of Planning and Coordination. 28. This project, which would be the first Bank-financed urban project in Bolivia, attempts to ease some of the country's most acute urban problems, in particular those of the people living in low income neighborhoods of La Paz. The project aims to provide improved shelter, to increase essential urban services and to strengthen institutional arrangements for implementing urban programs efficiently while improving income distribution and environmen- tal conditions. The project would (a) demonstrate the feasibility of providing essential urban services to low income groups at affordable costs, thereby making such schemes replicable on a much larger scale and with minimum Govern- ment subsidies; (b) provide and improve shelter solutions for the lowest urban income groups, reaching down, in the case of urban upgrading, to benefi- ciaries as low as 5th income percentile of La Paz; (c) provide credit lines designed to expand job opportunities and the economic participation of artisans and small-scale enterprises; and (d) help develop effective systems for pro- viding urban services and for the rational management of urban growth through the establishment of new institutions and the strengthening of existing ones. Project Description 29. The project would consist of the following components: A. Sites and Services - development of 5,525 new serviced plots with core dwelling units and 142 industrial/commercial plots in El Alto of La Paz, and provision of community facilities and construction material credits; - 10 - B. Urban Upgrading - provision of essential infrastructure, other urban services and construction material credits to about 4,500 families living in low-income areas of La Paz; C. Retail Food Markets - construction of five new retail food markets to serve low-income areas of La Paz; D. Credits for Artisans and Small-Scale Enterprises - provision of a special line of credit for artisans and small-scale enterprises designed to increase incomes and provide about 1,560 new jobs among low-income groups primarily in the Sites and Services and Urban Upgrading areas of the project; E. Technical Assistance - provision of technical assistance for the efficient implementation of this project and for the preparation of additional programs in La Paz and elsewhere in the country. Implementing Agencies 30. The Municipality of La Paz has developed a well-organized department (Accion Comunal) that, among other activities, assists the low-income communi- ties in the establishment of infrastructure and other urban services such as water, access paths, containment walls and community facilities. These works are carried out in close coordination with, and with the full participation of the communities concerned. During the past two years, the Municipality has improved significantly the technical and administrative level of its operations as well as its financial performance. Various private consulting firms are presently advising the Municipality on ways and means to raise the efficiency of its operations. Its staff has been reduced by about 190 employees (from 3,760) between 1975 and 1976 and by another 354 people in 1977. With the help of a newly introduced value-added tax on property, the municipality expects to become independent of direct Government budgetary allocations by 1981. The Municipality's capacity to implement effectively the proposed urban upgrading and retail food markets components is adequate. 31. CONAVI, a semi-autonomous agency under the Ministry of Urbanization and Housing, is the most important agency for the construction of low-cost public housing. It has a competent staff and is continuously improving its operations by shifting some of its resources from administrative to operational activities and by introducing more mechanized and computerized systems for its bookkeeping operations. CONAVI has a steady source of income from a 2% tax on wages and salaries paid directly to it by public and private employers; its financial condition is sound. CONAVI's ability to expand its annual activi- ties from the present level of 800 units to 2000 units as executing agency for the sites and services component is adequate. CONAVI has agreed to prepare a detailed three-year investment plan by December 1, 1977 (Section 3.04 of the draft CONAVI Project Agreement). - 11 - 32. BISA was established in 1963 as a private development bank, mainly to provide term financing to the private industrial sector. The first Bank group operation with BISA (IDA Credit 455-BO) provided term credit to medium- scale mines, along with technical assistance and studies related to the mining sector. The second Bank group operation which consisted of a US$10 miLlion loan (Loan 1290-BO) and a US$550,000 IFC investment, has provided term credit to private mining and industrial enterprises. The IFC investment, when completed in 1978, would give IFC 15% of BISA's shares. The quality of BISA's appraisal work is generally satisfactory and its work on technical evaluation and financial analysis is also acceptable. BISA's present staff is relatively small (17 professionals), but its management is experienced and competent. A major effort is underway to recruit additional staff. In order to manage the proposed new credit line for artisans and small-scale enterprises, BISA would establish a team headed by an industrial manager. 33. BANVI was founded in 1974 but has not yet developed the capability to fulfill the role of financial intermediator and coordinator of urban projects of the type proposed herein. Hence, in agreement with the Govern- ment, the technical coordination of this project would be entrusted to a Coordinating Commission (Section 3.02 of the draft Loan Agreement), which has been established under the chairmanship of Undersecretary of Coordination of the Ministry of Planning and Coordination. BANVI would act as the technical secretariat of this Council and would set up an evaluation and monitoring system for the project. BANVI would be supported in this task by consultants to be provided under the technical assistance program included in the project. These consultants would also assist BANVI in developing adequate financial and technical capabilities for preparing and executing projects of this type in the future (Schedule 1 of the draft BANVI Project Agreement). Detailed Features of Components (a) Sites and Services 34. Description. 5,525 plots of four basic types and prices would be developed on sites already owned by CONAVI and on approximately 20 ha of adjacent land which CONAVI would purchase. All plots would be provided with basic essential services (water, electricity, sewerage, access roads) and would have access to community facilities. About 5.5 km of water trunk line expansions connecting the project sites with the main water supply network of La Paz would also be built and financed under the project. In view of the importance of adequate water supply, CONAVI as well as HAM would make contrac- tual arrangements by March 31, 1978 with SAMAPA, the autonomous water and sewerage company of La Paz, for the provision of adequate amounts of water for the sites and services as well as for the urban upgrading component (Sections 4.03 and 3.09, respectively of the draft CONAVI and HAM Project Agreements). The sites and services component includes about US$1.7 million of credits for construction materials and assistance from skilled labor with which households can improve their initial units by self-help. The community facilities included in this component consist of seven new elementary schools, two - 12 - community centers to be built by mutual-aid, and a new refuse collection system. Adequate staffing and maintenance of schools and health units in the project would be provided by the ministries and agencies in charge (Section 4.04 of the draft Loan Agreement). Adequate bus services that connect the sites with the center of La Paz would be provided by expanding existing services through the establishment of transport cooperatives by the project settlers. The cost of such ventures could be financed through the proposed credit line for small-scale enterprises (paragraph 45). 35. The dwelling unit option of four types of serviced plots and their mix within each project site have been selected after careful consideration of the paying ability of the potential beneficiaries. Lower standards for layout and construction, which are not only adequate but more appropriate than the conventional municipal standards, and more efficient approval procedures have been developed for the project and would be adopted by the Municipality (Section 3.05 of the draft HAM Project Agreement). The cost of the serviced plots (net of self-help labor) range from $910 for the lowest grade to US$2,285 for a plot with a two-room core dwelling. Based on a maximum term of 20 years at 10% interest, monthly payments for the lowest grade serviced plots would be $9.00, and could be afforded by households with incomes as low as the tenth income percentile. The highest grade serviced plots with core dwelling would require monthly payments of $22.00 and would be affordable by householders as low as about the 35th income percentile. Credits for $300 worth of material would be available for an additional US$6.40 per month, assuming a maximum term of 5 years at 10% interest. 36. Immediately adjacent to the serviced residential sites, larger plots would be developed for artisans and small-scale enterprises. These plots would be primarily for workshops and labor-intensive and simple technology enter- prises. CONAVI would design, implement and operate the industrial/commercial sites and sell or rent individual plots (Section 2.04 and Schedule 2 of the draft CONAVI Project Agreement). 37. Cost and Financing. The total cost of the sites and services component, including contingencies, is estimated to be about US$13.6 million of which the Bank loan would finance US$9.6 million or 70% and the Government US$4.0 million. Government funds deposited at Banco Central would be with- drawn by BANVI for CONAVI according to an established schedule of disburse- ments. 38. Implementation. CONAVI would be responsible for the planning, con- struction and supervision of this component and it would establish a special unit for these purposes whose staffing and organization would be acceptable to the Bank (Section 2.01(b) of the draft CONAVI Project Agreement). In order to maintain design continuity and facilitate project implementation, a reduced unit is already in operation and its operating expenses incurred after February 1, 1977 up to a maximum of US$300,000 would be financed retroactively (Schedule 1, Paragraph 4(a) of the draft Loan Agreement). The unit would design and prepare detailed engineering and tendering documents for all project sites and off-site infrastructure networks that are directly related - 13 - to the functioning of the project sites. CONAVI would collect monthly payments from households and commercial lots and would withhold 3.8% to cover adminis- trative costs and possible defaults. 39. CONAVI would advertise the project through various public media. The potential beneficiaries would be pre-selected, according to procedures acceptable to the Bank including such criteria as economic capacity, family size, skills, present housing conditions, a minimum residency of two years in La Paz, and commitment to contribute labor to the mutual aid elements included in the Project. Participants would be allocated plots through drawing lots (Section 2.04 and Schedule 2 of the draft CONAVI Project Agreement). A special selection committee would coordinate its activities with the technical, legal and financial sections of CONAVI and with external institutions such as FOMO (the national manpower development agency), the National Council of Social Action, and the Ministries of Health, Labor and Education. (b) Urban Upgrading 40. Description. The urban upgrading program would provide basic urban services to about 4,500 families in eight low-income areas of La Paz. The participating families would be given secure tenure to their plots by the Municipality. Receipt by the Bank of satisfactory legal evidence that this had been accomplished would be a condition of disbursement for this component of the project (Schedule 1, Paragraph 4(b) of the draft Loan Agreement). The Bolivian Power Company would provide household connections at no additional cost to the project. As a minimum, communal standpipes for water supply and laundry-shower facilities would be provided for all residents. Sewerage connections would be provided where technically and economically feasible (about 75% of all households). Average cost of the basic upgrading work would be about US$466 per family. Based on a repayment period of 15 years at 10% interest, this amount would require monthly payments of US$4.80. In addition, construction materials credits ranging between US$50 and US$300 would be available for self-help housing improvements. It is expected that, on the average, families will utilize US$200 of construction materials credits, which at a 10% interest for one to five years will cost them US$4.25 per month. 41. Cost and Financing. The total cost of the urban upgrading component, including contingencies, is estimated at US$3.2 million, of which the proposed Bank loan would finance about US$2.4 million or about 76% and the Government US$0.8 million. Funds deposited with Banco Central would be channelled by BANVI to Accion Comunal. 42. Implementation. A special team within Accion Comunal would prepare preliminary designs and cost estimates in consultation with the various communities. For each community, the corresponding Neighborhood Committee (Junta Vecinal) would participate in planning and assisting Accion Comunal in organizing the mutual-aid groups for implementation. Final proposals and - 14 - detailed engineering for each area would require approval by the Bank (Section 2.04(a) of the draft HAM Project Agreement). Community representatives would also be responsible for specific tasks related to project implementation, administration and maintenance. This arrangement is intended not only to reduce official inputs during implementation but to involve the community directly, thus helping to establish a permanent mechanism for ongoing improve- ments and maintenance. Installation of infrastructure and construction of facilities would be undertaken by a combination of voluntary community labor and contracted labor. (c) Retail Food Markets 43. Description. Two of the proposed five markets would be located in the Villa Adela and Rio Seco sites and services areas; two more markets would be located in other low-income areas in El Alto; and the fifth market would be near the urban upgrading area of Sagrado Corazon. A total of 300 new stalls and additional space for 1,000 vendors would be installed initially in the five markets which are designed for expansion of up to 500 stalls. The Municipality would be responsible for the design and supervision of the construction of these markets and would also maintain and operate them. 44. Cpst and Financing. Each of the market buildings would be initially about 600 m and would cost about US$60,000. The total cost per market, includ- ing the cost of land, paving and contingencies, would be about US$122,000. The total cost for the five markets would be US$610,000 of which the proposed Bank loan would finance US$460,000 or 76.6%, and the Government US$150,000. Funds from Banco Central would be channeled through BANVI to the Municipality. The recovered costs would be kept by the Municipality as a Government contri- bution to support its operations. (d) Credits for Artisans and Small-Scale Enterprises 45. Description. About 600 artisans are expected to receive from BISA credits averaging US$1,500 each, for a total of about US$1 million, while another 140 small-scale enterprises, each requiring an average of US$17,500, would utilize the remaining US$2.5 million. BISA would follow lending policies and procedures, including guidelines for selecting borrowers, satisfactory to the Bank (Section 2.01(b) and Schedule 2 of the draft BISA Project Agreement). These arrangements would make credit available to artisans with relatively low levels of skills and to small enterprises which are not eligible under the previous Bank loan to BISA. Individual loans would amount to a maximum of US$20,000 except for those larger enterprises relocating from La Paz which would be able to obtain credits of up to US$40,000. Loans of over US$20,000, however, would be limited to an aggregate amount of US$800,000 in order to encourage applications for smaller loans. BISA proposes to offer the credits to artisans in Bolivian pesos at a net interest rate of 12%, while interest on credits for small-scale enterprises would be between 12% and 18% based on the conditions of the local financial market. The credits would finance up to 90% - 15 - of the requirements of artisans and up to 70% of the requirements of the small-scale enterprises. The loans would be for terms averaging six years including two years of grace. 46. The establishment of new industrial sites in El Alto would enable small-scale enterprises to expand and to operate more efficiently on premises which are conveniently located near the international airport and all the main roads and railroads that enter La Paz. A preliminary sample survey indicates that the amount of US$2.5 million is likely to be quickly loaned to firms which have already indicated their interest in locating at El Alto. With comparatively little investment in better machines and tools and with some assistance in accounting methods and marketing to be provided by Accion Comunal under the project, the artisans receiving the credits are expected to be able to achieve better productivity, become more competitive and generate about 660 additional jobs. Small-scale enterprises to be located in the planned El Alto industrial sites are expected to provide at least 900 jobs initially and up to 1,500 jobs in three years as the firms settle and expand their activities. This would be an important contribution to employment among the more than 5,000 families that are expected to settle in the new residen- tial areas of Villa Adela and Rio Seco, as well as among the older areas. 47. Cost and Financing. BISA would establish and operate a revolving fund with an initial amount of US$3.05 million for on-lending to artisans and small-scale enterprises located in the project area. The proposed Bank loan would contribute with US$2.55 million and BISA would provide the remaining US$0.5 million (Section 2.01(c) of the draft BISA Project Agreement). 48. Implementation. The initial selection of artisans eligible for credits would be made by the Neighborhood Committees. Further technical appraisal, supervision and promotion of artisans would be carried out by a special team within Accion Comunal. This team would be supported by approxi- mately 48 man-months of technical assistance by foreign consultants and 15 man-months of local counterparts. Appraisal, approval and supervision of credits to small-scale enterprises would be handled separately by a special appraisal unit of BISA which would also give final approval for credits to artisans. Designs and site planning would be made by CONAVI in consultation with the BISA and the Accion Comunal teams. (e) Technical Assistance and Training 49. Description. In all, 214 man-months of consultancy services in financial analysis, project engineering, economics and urban planning are envisaged. The assistance, consisting of 199 man-months of foreign consul- tants and 15 man-months of local consultants, is essential to the success of the proposed project and for the preparation of future programs in view of the severe shortage of local expertise. It would be allocated as follows: 79 man-months to BANVI for support of the operations of the project unit; 63 man-months to Accion Comunal for facilitating credit to artisans and for preparing a computerized system for further analysis of low-income population - 16 - in La Paz; 24 man-months to CONAVI for preparation of special design and construction standards for projects of this type and for its planned compu- terization of most administrative tasks; and 24 man-months to the Ministry of Health for programs to improve health and nutrition of low-income groups in La Paz. 50. Cost and Financing. The cost of the consultants totals about US$1.4 million, most of which consists of the cost of foreign consultants, estimated at US$6,000 per man-month. Related equipment costs are US$400,000 and train- ing US$200,000. About US$1.9 million of the total cost of this component will be financed by the proposed loan, with the remaining US$100,000 provided by the Government. It would be administered by BANVI which would draw the funds through Banco Central. Overall Project Costs and Financing 51. The estimated total cost of the project, including land and contin- gencies, is US$22.5 million. The direct and indirect foreign exchange com- ponent amounts to US$7.2 million or about 32% of total cost. These cost estimates are based on preliminary engineering and on unit prices of local construction and quotations as of February 1977. Physical and price contin- gencies amount to 41% of base line costs for civil works. The project would be financed as follows: the Bank loan of US$17.0 million (75.5% of the total project cost, see paragraph 11); a Government contribution of US$5.0 million (22.2%); and the contribution by BISA, of US$0.5 million (2.3%). The exchange risk would be borne by the Government. Beneficiaries would pay a surcharge to CONAVI, the Municipality and BISA to compensate them for their financial risk. Financing Arrangements 52. The Government would open two project accounts with Banco Central; one for BISA for the proposed credit line for artisans and small-scale enter- prises and one for BANVI for all other project components. The Government would onlend the proceeds of the Bank loan at the same term and interest rate except for the addition of 1/4% commission charged by Banco Central for all funds to be withdrawn by BISA and BANVI. BANVI would in turn channel the funds to HAM and CONAVI; part of these funds, totalling US$4.5 million, would be provided as a grant by the Government to cover the costs of schools, offsite infrastructure, retail markets and technical assistance. Subsidiary loan agreements containing sub-loan repayment terms and conditions satisfactory to the Bank, would be signed between the Government and BISA (credits for artisans and small-scale enterprises), the Government and the Municipality (urban upgrading and retail food markets), and the Government and CONAVI (sites and services) (Section 3.01(c), (d) and (e) of the draft Loan Agreement), and their execution would be a condition of effectiveness of the Bank loan. BANVi's role as a fiscal agent for the Government would be regulated through a separate financing and fiscal agency agreement between the two, satisfactory to the Bank (Section 3.01(f) draft Loan Agreement), and its execution would also be a condition of effe. ctiveness of the Bank loan. For its role, BANVI would receive a one-time contribution of US$100,000 from the Government to cover its overhead costs. It would not charge any additional commission for funds channelled to CONAVI and HAM. - 17 - Cost Recovery 53. Project costs would be recovered mainly from charges and sales to final users. Altogether, about US$19.0 million, or 80% of total project cost would be recovered from the individual beneficiaries. The beneficiaries of the sites and services and urban upgrading components would be charged for the full development, construction and administrative costs except for costs of schools, technical assistance, and some offsite infrastructure which benefit a much larger population than the households directly participating in the project. The 10% interest rate charged to these beneficiaries will be posi- tive, according to our assessment of Bolivia's long term inflation rate (paragraph 8). Existing fees and charges for the retail food markets barely cover operating expenses of these facilities but under the project, the Municipality would raise the charges to secure recovery of the full capital, maintenance and operation costs (Section 3.04 of the draft HAM Project Agree- ment). Credits for artisans and small-scale enterprises would also be fully recovered through appropriate arrangements between BISA and the individual recipients of credits. The Government would guarantee up to US$300,000 or 30% of the total outstanding BISA credit under the project, whichever is less, for possible defaults, in order to permit BISA to take somewhat higher risks than would otherwise be possible (Section 4.05 of the draft Loan Agreement). Procurement 54. Since most civil works are relatively small and scattered and in some cases mutual-aid labor is also envisaged, foreign contractors are not likely to be interested in these works. Hence, most contracts would be awarded according to local bidding procedures. The procedures have been reviewed and found to be satisfactory. All of the urban upgrading component (US$3.9 million) and about 27% of the sites and services component (US$3.7 million) would be carried out by force account. Contracts for the supply of equipment would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding. Disbursement 55. Disbursements of the Bank loan would be made against appropriate documentation for the following: (a) 100% of foreign expenditures for imported vehicles and equipment or 100% of the ex-factory price of domestically manufactured goods; (b) 76.6% of total expenditures for civil works, construction materials credits, design, engineering, supervision, and management; (c) 84% of disbursements against the BISA credit program; and (d) 100% of total expenditures for technical assistance. - 18 - Accounts and Audits 56. BISA, BANVI, HAM and CONAVI would keep separate accounts for all transactions relating to the Bank project. As facilities are completed, the executing agencies, except BISA, would submit to BANVI semi-annual financial reports. Documentation for disbursements under the Artisans and Small-Scale Enterprises Credit Program would be reviewed by the Bank. Annual auditing reports, by external auditors satisfactory to the Bank (except for BANVI which has no repayment requirements), of BANVI, BISA, CONAVI and the Municipality and of their respective project accounts would be made available to the Bank not later than six months following the close of the respective agency's fiscal year (Section 4.02 of the draft BANVI, BISA and CONAVI Project Agreements and Section 3.02 of the draft HAM Project Agreement). Project Benefits and Risks 57. The project would develop an efficient system for providing urban shelter and services that would be affordable by the urban poor. Also, it would, for the first time in Bolivia, make business credits available to artisans and small-scale enterprises who either live in or are closely associated with the low-income areas of La Paz. By promoting in an integrated manner the general welfare and productivity of the urban poor, the proposed project would increase their social and economic mobility and contribute to their integration into the mainstream of Bolivia's society. The project has been designed to demonstrate the feasibility of financially recoverable programs that, while benefiting low-income groups, can also contribute to national production and income objectives. 58. In estimating the rates of return of the sites and services compo- nent, the benefits were valued in terms of the imputed rental values of the housing units based on the market value of similar units, while costs were based on investment and maintenance cost estimates. Investment costs include the opportunity cost of land, construction costs, materials costs (used in construction materials credits), imputed cost of mutual-aid and self-help labor, plus administrative and technical assistance costs related to this labor. Similarly, in the case of the urban upgrading component, the costs include capital, imputed labor, technical assistance and maintenance costs. Benefits reflect imputed rental value of the improved houses. The useful life of the components was estimated to be 20 years in each case. 59. Although many of the benefits from this project are difficult to quantify, in those cases where it was possible, the computed rates of return appear to be quite reasonable. Thus, the rates of return of the sices and services and urban upgrading components, which comprise about 75% of total project costs, have been estimated to be about 16% and 27% respectively. The corresponding social rates of return are probably much higher. The rate of return for both components together is estimated to be 18%. - 19 - 60. The main risks faced by the project would be those associated with coordination and implementation of a complex project in the social sector. To ensure proper project execution, appropriate executing agencies have been selected, and in order to coordinate them, a Coordinating Council has been established. It is hoped that with the experience gained during project execution and with technical assistance, BANVI, the fiscal agent for the major part of the project, would be able to develop the capability to implement other projects of this type in the future. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 61. The draft Loan Agreement between the Republic of Bolivia and the Bank; the draft Project Agreements between the Bank and respectively, the Municipality of La Paz, BANVI, CONAVI and BISA; the Report of the Committee provided for in Article III, Section 4(iii) of the Articles of Agreement of the Bank; and the text of a draft resolution approving the proposed loan are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 62. Special conditions of the proposed loan referred to in paragraphs 31, 33, 34, 35, 38, 40, 47, and 53 are listed in Section III of Annex III. Special conditions of effectiveness would be the execution of the Subsidiary Loan Agreements between the Borrower and CONAVI, HAM and BISA, respectively, and the execution of the Financing and Fiscal Agency Agreement between the Borrower and BANVI. A special condition of disbursement for Categories (1) and (2) of Part B of the project would be that the Bank has been furnished legal evidence satisfactory to it that HAM has made arrangements to provide the participants in the urban upgrading with secure tenure to their plots. 63. I am satisfied that the proposed loan would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Bank. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 64. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed loan. Robert S. 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BOLIVIA 1960 1а Ав[го of populatlon ипдег 15 апд 65 end дvет to total 1вЬог farce; /Ь 1965; /с 4s perceпtage of 1аЬот fozce 1п employment; /д 196Э, 1970 /а Rat1o оС populetion ипдет 15 апд 65 алд oyer [о to[в1 1еЬот fггсе; /b Ав е percentвge of 1аЬог fотсе in employment, /с Рориlа[1оп, /д 1964-ЬЬ; /е Betveen 1965 епд 1970 [Ъе duraëLon of general вecondery едисвtlоп аев тдисед from 6 to 4 years. М05Т АЕСЕIЛ' ES"CL*1АТЕ� /а 1971; /Ь Retio nf рориlа[1оп ипдег 15 апд 65 епд wет to totel 1аЬот fotce; /с As percentage of 1вЬоr force 1п emplovment; /д Including mldwlvee; /е 1967-71 вverage; /f (972; /� Between 1965 апд 1970 the duratlon of general eecondary education wea redGced fгав 6[о 4 уеагв. CПMEROON 1970 /а 1964-бб; /Ь 1Э уевтв £от Еав[ Сатетооп. HOND1ПtA5 1970 /а Largely дие to emlgra[ion slnce 1969 of Е1 5вlиадогеап reeident 1n Нопдитав, populatlon groиth rate 1в Iоыег than the гд[с of natural lncrease; /Ь Ratio oF рорвlаtlоп гтдет 15 end 65 апд over to Cote1 labot £огсе; /е 196>-68 рориlа[1ап; /д Registered, not а11 pracl.icing 1л the country. РЕАР 1970 /а Excludes Indlan jungle рориlы[1еп; /Ь Ra[1о of рориlв[1оп ипдег 15 апд 65 апд over to [otal 1еЪот £огсе; /с UтЬдп агеаь оп1у, /д Including eyening schools. R6, Матсh 10. 1977 DEFINITIOIVS OF SOCIAL 2NOICATORS 4дпд агеа ![hou 1ая2) Populaclon сег пигвLпд осгвоп - Populacion дlуlдед Ьу питЬег оЕ ртассlс!ng Тосе1 - Тогл1 su.Ea<е агеа caoprlsing lалд лгев а�д гпlлпд на[егs. таlе епд Fетвlе gгвдиа[е пигееа, "ствlпед" от "certlfled" пигеев, апд г1г. - Чо,с гесеп( еесlта[е ot agrf<иlсигаl егеа used [етрогдтllу от реттв- uxllfery ретвопnеl v1[h tralning ог ехрегlепсе. пеп[1у Еог crops, pascures, ,narkee 6 klcchen gатдепь ог to 11е fа11ы. Рориlа[1оп рег hoeDltel Ьед - Рориlа[1оп дlуlдед Ьу питЪег of hoeplcal Ьедь вувllвЫе 1п риЫ1с впд ргlуасе generel and epet1e11:ed hoeplcal впд GNP рег гарl[в (US5) - G.�'Р рет сарl[а esc.maces ас с тепг markec prlces, геhвЬЕ11[дгlоп сеп[етв, ехсlидев nurelag homes дпд евгаЫlвhтепса for свlсиlвсед Ьу seme ccmverslor тегhод ав Чог1д еапkи4сlаь (197J-75 Ъае1в); сивсодlвl елд ргеуепсlуе свте. 1960, 1970 впд 1975 даса. Рег сарl[а eupDly of гаlогlее (% of гелиlгетеnсв) - Сотри[ед fr® energv equlvalen[ of пе[ Еоод виррllев eve11a6e 1п counrry рег сарlса рег деу, Рориlасlоп and v1ca1 s[в[1е[1с ava11e61e виррllев г®ртlве дааев[1с producclon, lmpores lees ехротсв, апд Рлриlа[1оп (т1д-уеаг т1111лп) 1г ot ]и1у flrst 1f по[ avat1a61e, averege changeв in ecock, пес вupplies ехсlиде апlшвl £еед, аеедв, quanclгles used of пэо епд-уеаг escLnaгes, 1�60, 1970 and 1975 ддса. 1п food proceaeing and lовеев 1п дlвсгlЬисlоп, геqиlгетепсв и еьсlтв[ед Ьу £АО Ъееед оп phyeLOloglcal пеедв for погтвl ессlуlсу епд heelch сопвlд- Рориlа[1оп denslty - рвг sguare Юа - М1д-уеаг рориlв[1оп рег square kllometer ering envlro®еn[в1 [ет твгиге, Ьод к1 М(в, of ре у g ege впд еех дlвсгlЬисlопь (100 hec[ares) о£ со[а1 агев. рориlасlоп, впд a11ov1пg 10х for иав[е вс houвehold 1еуе1. Populatlon densl[у - рет sauare Юя of aRr1c lапд - Сстри[ед аь abwe £ог Рег сарl[в вирРlр of Dro[e1n (дтвvв рег дву) - Рго[е1п con[ent of рет сврlса agrlculcural lдпд опlу пе[ виррlу of food рег дау; nee виррlу оЕ food 1в deflned ев eбove; requlrc- тепсе £ог в11 countrlee ее[eбlehed Ьу 115DA Есопотlг Аевеегсh 5еrvlсев V1ta1 вгасlвсlсs ргоуlде for е mintmum allwance of ЬО gr®в af to[а1 рто[е1п рег дву, апд Сгиде 61г[h rete рег thousend, еуегаде - Аппиаl 11ve b1r[hs рег thouaand of 20 gc®в of епlтвl апд риlве prateln, of vhlch 10 gr®s вhоиlд Ъе апlтаl т!д-уеят populatlon; [еп-уевг аг1[tтзе[1г вуегаgев ending 1п 1960 end 1970, proteln; theee в[впдатде еге lоиет [hen [hoae of 75 gгвтв оЕ [осаl ргосеlп епд flve-year averege ending 1п 1975 £от moet гегепt евСlтвсе. впд 23 greme of апlтеl рго[е1п ав еп ayecage Еог the wt1d, ргоровед Ьу F;G Сгиде deech геСе рег chousand, а гаде - Аппиаl dea[ha рег [hоиввпд о£ т1д-уевг 1п the ThLrd Чог1д Food 5urvey. рориlа[1т ;[еп-уеаг ет1[hme[lcaeyeregeв ending 1n 1960 апд 1970 апд flye- Рег се 1[а го[е1п ви 1 ftom аоlтвl end иlве - Рто[е1п виррlу of fопд уевт aycrage ending 1п 1975 for товt гесепС ев[!та[е. дегlуед Егрт enlтеlв епд ри вев 1п grame рег дау Infan[ mor[a11ty гаСе (/chou) - Алпивl deethь о£ lпfвп[в ипдег опе уеаг ot age Deeth га[е (/[hou) адев 1-4 - Аппиеl дее[hs рег chousend 1п age group 2-С рет thousaпd 11уе 61г[hв. уеегв, [о chlldren 1п thle ege group; вuggeered ав еп 1пдlса[от о£ L1fe ехресСапсу аС blrth (угв) нverage nvmber of уевгв of 11£е remalning д[ твlпи[г1[1оп. бir[h, usually flve-yeer ayerдtes ending 1п 1960, 1970 апд 1975 £от деуеlор- 1ng соипсгlен EduceClon Сгоsь гергодигСlоп га[е - чуегвgе питЬег of liye daughters д иопгвп w111 Ьевг АдfивСед enrollment гаС1о - ргlтвry echool - Епгоllдкпс of е11 egee ев рег- 1п her полпаl reprodurtlve регlод 1F sbe ехрегlеnсев prese�t ege-epeцflc centage о£ prlmery achool-ege рориlасlоп; 1псlидев chlldren eged Ь-11 veerь ferc111cy rates; usually flve-year everageя ending in 1960, 1970 апд 1975 Ъи[ вд�ив[ед for dffEeren[ leng[he of prlmary едига[гоп, for соипггlеs и1Н. for developing с uncrl.es ипlуетввl educetlon, епгоllтепс тву ехсеед 100у. вlгсе воте рирllв яте belev. рлриlа[1оп growch гаге (%) -[осаl - Сатроипд аппиаl groнeh гаrеь of т1д-уеег ог вЬоуе [he offLclel всhооl age. рориlа[1оп Еог 1950-60, 1960-70 впд 1970-75. pdiuaCed anzollmenc гв[1о - secondary echool - Computed в aбove, ьесопдаrv Рориlе[1оп Rrow[h гв[е (Z) - итЬвп - L'отри[ед 11ke grwch та[е of то[в1 едисе[1оп requlree а[ lевв[ four уеагв of врргоуед prlmery 1пв[гиссlог., рориlа[1on, д1£ferenc def1n1t1ons of итЬап arees тву affec[ cpmpara6111ty оЕ рrоуlдев generel, уо<всlопвl ог ceecher crelning 1паСгис[lопв for puplls data amang соип[r1es. of 12 Со 17 уеегв af age; correspondence соигвее аге депеrаllу ехсlидед L�rbee рориlа[1оп (7. of [освl) - Ае[1о of игЬеп [о [о[aL populatlon, dlfferent Уевгв о£ echoolleR ргоуlдед (flrec svd аесопд 1вvеlе) - То[а1 уевгв о deflnl[lопв of игЬап егевв теу affecc сотратв6113[у of dsta among countrleв. echooling; в[ eecondary 1eve1, уои[1опа1 lmfruc[1оп тву Ъе рвгс1в11у от г®р1е[е1у ехсlидед. Age s[ructure (регсеп[) - Chlldren (0-14 years), orking-ege (15-64 yearsl, Vocacional епгоllтелс (2 оЕ s опдеry) - Чосв(tопаl 1ns[1cuclons ln<lиде апд ге п гед (65 vеагв апд wer) ав регсеп[аgеь оГ тгд-уеаг рориlвсlоп. cechnlcel, lnduscrlal от ocher ргоgгвтв vhlch орега[е Lndependencly лг at Аке дерепдепсу га[io - Ra[1о of рориlаСlоп ипдег 15 апд 65 апд over Со [hoee deparcments о£ ее<апдагу iпвсlсисlопь of ages 15 through 64. qdu1C 11(егасу гасе (%) - Ltcezece adulcs (ебlе со геед апд vrfce) as рег- Е<опотlс дерепдепгу гасlо - Ra[го оЕ роргПа[1оп ипдет 15 апд 65 апд over со cencege of со[а1 адиlс рориlе[1оп aged 15 years апд nver. [he 1аЬог £огсе 1п age group о£ 15-64 уеатв. Fвт11у рlаппlпд - дcceptors (ситиlасlуе, chou) - Cumulaclve питЬег о£ accepcors Housing оЕ hlrch-con[ro1 devlces ипдег aueplces of пдгlоnаl tдmilv рlаппгпд progrmn Регьопе рег гоот (игЬап) - Ауегаде питЬег of persons рет г� п о�гирlед s1n<е lпсер n оп. conven[lonal дсе111пgь 1п urban агеав, dvellings ехгlиде пгпlрепаепепс Fam11y plennlrtg - s(% of твгrгед иотеп) - Perceneлges of т гед w о£ всгисtитев апд ипоссирlед рапs ch11d-бearing ages(15-44 yeers) who use hlzth-con[rol devlcesa[o а11 тагтlед Оссирlед дне111пgв и1[houc рlред иасег (%) - Осгирiед гопуепгlопеl дие]lгrgs иотеп си same age gcoup 1п игЬап апа гигеl вгеав vtchouc 1пьlде ог ицсьlде рlред ивсег fartlггles ав ретсепсвgе of а11 оссир(ед dve111ngs Emplovmen[ 4ссевв to еlессгlсl[у (% о£ а11 дне111лдв1 - Сгг.vепСгопаl дне111пдs п ch То[а1 1вЬот force (сhоивапд) - Еслпот1са11у ectlye ретаопв, 1nc1uding актед еlес[г1с!:v 1п 11y1ng quarгers ва регсепг ef го[а1 dve111ngs 1� игFап аод forcee апд и етрlоуед Ьи[ excluding houseиlyes, studencs, есс ; defгnltione титаl агевв 1п arlous с un[rLee аге пог готрвгебlе. Rura1 dvellingь соппессед со еlессгlсiп• {%) - Сааригед ав aLoae .лг rcraL I-аЬогу£огге lпопкгiеиlсиге (7.) - Лgгlгиlгигаl 1аЬог fлгсе (1п facming, forescгy, dиe111nge оп1у. huncing апд flehfng) еь perceneage оЕ сосаl 1дЬог force Unemplnyed (% of 1еЬог Еогсе) - Опетрlоуед дге usually деЕlпед ав persons who Consumpclon аге абlе апд и1111пд со cake а 7о6, оиг of а 1оЬ о а glven деу, remelned ои[ Rad1o гесеlуетв (рет сhоь eoy) - А11 [ууев of гегеlуегт Еог гвдги бroadcas�c of а 1оЬ, впд seeking vork £ог в ьресl£1ед тlпlтитпрегlод по[ ексееагпg апе со general puбlle рег chou•+пд of рориlасlас, ехгlидег и�1 ц есчед г.� .. п иееk, тву пог Ье сотрагабlе бetveen соипгтlев дие Со dLffereпc def1n1c1one tn counгries апд 1п уеагь vhen геglsсгвсlоп of гадlп s<rs и еt(егг оЕ ипетрlоуед апд еоигсе of дага, e.g., етрlоутепг offtce s[artaclcs, ьвтрlе дасд for гесепс veere mav по[ Ье с®рвгаЫе slпге то.г -оипггlеэ ahoilsэ•ед aurveye, сотриlьогу ипетрlоутепС lпвигапсе. 1lсепв ,гg. Раввепкег <агв (сег Chou рорl - РавSепgег сзгs гасог7sн т�сот с cecing Income д1в[ггби[1оп - Percencage of prfvare tncnme (6o[h 1п caeh апд klnd) 1ев5 [hen elgh[ регвопь, excludes втЬпlапсеs, hедгьеч аад пtL сяr recelyed Ьу гlгhеве 5%, riches[ 207., poores[ 20%, апд роогевс 40% оЕ house- vehlclea. holde. Flectrlclty (kvh/уг Der гер) - Мпие1 г sшnpCion �f lnduecrlal, г с,1л: риЫ1с апд ргlуесе еlегегlсlсу 1п ktlovecr hours рег <ерlся. депе в11• Dia[rlbuclon оЕ lапд wnerehlp - Percenceqes of lапд оипед Ьу vealchleac 10% Ьваед ап ргодиссlоп двса, vf[heuc allwance for ;лвееь 1г Fг1дв 5v: л{1л.- епд роогевг 107. оЕ lепд онпегв tng Епг lтрогсв and ехрогсь оС eleccrlclcv Neveprгn[ (kд/уг рег сер) - Рет гврl[а е unl consumprlon 1г, wlln„recь Healrh епд Hucrltlon eeclma[ед fcam дотев[1г ргодис[ton plusnneг гтрогсе и ггилргlпс Рориlв[1оп рег phyelclen - Рориlв[1оп dlvlded Ьу питЬег оЕ precClcing рhувlсlепв qualifled fram в тедlсаl echool а[ unlyernf[y 1eve1 ANNEX I Page 3 of 5 BOLIVIA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DATA (Amounts in US million) Actual Provisional Projected 1969- 1973- 1976- 1980- NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 1973 1974 1975 1976 1980 1 1973 1976 1980 1985 1973 1976 1980 1985 Constant 1974 Prices in Million Us Growth Rate As Percent of GUY Gross D ome stic Product 1,606 1,686 1,787 1,VUj 2,417 2 65 4.8 5.8 6.2 6.2 116.3 106.0 105.3 03. Z Gains from Terms of Trade -225 - -87 -107 -122 -173 - - - - -16.3 690 -5.3 -5.6 Gross Domestic Income T7796 Y295 3,092 3.1 9.2 6.3 6.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Imports (Incl. NFS) 407 519 615 600 812 985 15.0 13.8 7.9 3.9 29.5 3.4 35.4 31.9 Exports (Incl. NFS) (Import CapacitXj - A80 - 88 - ±O - L9 -631 -267 16.4 10.2 5.5 8.9 27.5 28.3 27.5 31.3 Resource Gap 27 -69 155 91 182 18 - - - - 0 5.1 Consumption Expenditures 1,185 1,336 1,474 1,4% 1,913 2,461 4.9 8.1 6.3 5.2 85.8 83.3 83.4 79.6 Investment Expenditures (incl. stocks) 224 281 382 391 564 649 -4.5 20.4 9.6 2.8 16.2 21.8 24.6 21.0 Domestic Savings 196 350 227 300 382 631 -5.2 15.2 6.2 10.6 14.2 16.7 16.6 20.4 National Savings 187 331 211 273 320 512 -2.6 13.4 4.1 9.9 13.5 15.2 13.9 16.6 MERCHANDISE TRADE Annual Data at Current Prices As Percent of Total Imports Imports Foods 27.7 40.0 55.1 56.2 93.0 156.0 5.5 26.6 13.4 10.9 11.1 10.4 8.9 8.7 Other Consumer Goods 28.7 33.0 62.0 60.7 111.2 192.5 5.9 28.4 16.3 11.6 11.5 11.2 10.6 10.8 Fuels 1.8 5.0 6.9 7.3 11.7 19.6 4.9 59.5 12.5 10.9 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.1 Raw Materials & Int. Goods 56.3 94.6 165.9 160.4 308.9 563.3 -2.0 41.8 17.8 12.8 22.6 29.7 29.5 31.7 Capital Goods 99.8 181.0 195.6 216.0 470.9 758.7 -2.0 29.4 21.5 10.0 40.0 40.0 44.9 42.7 Other Goods 35.2 36,4 ".5 40-0 51.9 88.5 -4.6 4.4 6.7 11.3 14.1 7.4 5.0 5.0 Total Merchandise imports 249.5 390.0 530.0 540.6 1,047.5 T7778.6 -F7 T9.4 8.0 T1.2 TOO.0 TOO.0 700.0 iOO.O Exports As Percent of Total Exports Primary Products 217.3 362.4 308.2 370.8 558.1 1.130.9 0.1 19.5 10.0 15.2 76.5 68.2 65.1 58.5 Fue 1. 64.7 185 7 153 9 170.7 294.4 788.9 8.3 38.2 14.6 21.8 22 8 31 4 34.3 40 .8 0 /V Crude Petroleum (46.8) (156:8) (111:4) (114.3) (201.7) (578.5) (4.2) (34.7) (15.3) 23.5 (16:5) (21:0) ( 23 . 5 29 9) Me= factured Goods 1.9 5.8 1.9 2.5 5.4 12.3 30-3 9.6 21.2 17.9 0.7 0.4 Om6 0'.7 Total Merchandise Exports 283.9 553.9 464.0 544.0 857.9 1,932.1 3.0 24.2 12.1 17.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Merchandise Trade Indices Export Price Index 51.3 100.0 93.4 97.6 131.7 188.0 9.3 23.9 7.8 7.4 Import Price Index 81.3 100.0 111.0 118.1 159.1 222.8 10.2 13.3 7.7 7.0 Terms of Trade Index 81.7 100.0 84.1 82.6 82.8 84.4 5.8 0.4 0.1 o.4 VALUE ADDED BY SECTOR As Percent of Total GDP --9761980 1985 1973 1974 1975 Agriculture S-O T5. 2 T5.4 5.0 T5.8 25.1 4.7 5.9 5.9 5.6 Industry and Mining 34.4 33.4 32.1 32.2 32.1 34.9 3.7 3.7 6.0 8.0 Service 40.6 41.4 42.5 42.8 42.1 40. 5.1 Total .2 5.8 7.5 5.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 LUBLIC FINANCE Percent of GDP (Central Government) 1973 1974 1975 1976 Current Receipts 73.7 T7.2 T6.1 15.1 Current Expenditures 13.7 14.6 14.3 14.7 Budgetary Savings - 2.6 1.8 Public Sector 0.4 Savings 6.6 12.4 7.1 6.6 Public Fixed Capital Formation 8.9 10.4 10.3 10.4 CURRENT EXPENDITURE DETAILS DETAIL ON (As % Total Current Expenditure) 1973 1974 1975 1976 PUBLIC SECTOR As Percent of Total Goods and Services YO.5 75.0 T9.8 U.4 INVESTMENT PROGRAM 1976 80 Wages and Salaries 61.6 52.7 51.3 52.0 Agriculture 9.6 Transfer Payments 12.8 29.0 24.9 24.8 Mining &nd Hydrocarbons 23.5 Other 5.1 3.3 4.0 2.8 Industry &nd Power 25.8 Total Current Expenditure 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Transport and Communications 19.0 Public Service and Social Service 22.2 SELECTED INDICATORS 1969- 1973- 1976- 1980- FINANCING As Percent of Total 1973 1976 1980 1985 1977-80 TCOR 3.8 3.0 3.6 3.31 Private Sector 30.0 import Elasticity 2.9 2.3 1.3 A-age National Savings Rate .15 .15 .14 .64 Foreign Sources 31.0 M-ginal National Savings Rate -.07 .30 .10 .14 Public Sector 39.0 .24 Debt Service Ratio 19.5 LABOR FORCE AND lue Added Per Worker OUTPUT PER WORKER In Thousand. % of Total Growth Rate In USaDollars Percent of Average 197Q 1975 L970 1975 1970-75 1970 1976 1970 1976 Agii-1t.re 1.307 1,481 0..4 57.9 264.8 )6.5 40.1 44. 2 Industry and Mining 276 400 13.6 15.6 7.7 1,63-4.9 1,400.7 247.7 202 1 Sc rvice 446 678 22.0 26.5 8.7 1,215.9 1,119.5 18,4.0 161.5 Total 2,029 2,559 loo.0 700-0 4.6 659.0 693.0 1000 T-00-3 PaKc 4. of 5 BOLIVIA BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE AND DERT (Current US$ million) Actual Provstonal Projected 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1980 1985 A. SUMMARY OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Imports (incl. NFS) -227.5 -260.6 -332.4 -518.9 -682.4 -708.5 -1,292.0 -2,195.3 Exports (inl. NFS) 198.3 224.7 310.1 588.1 510.3 601.1 997 7 2, Resource Balance -29.2 -35.9 -22.3 69.2 -172.1 -107.4 -294.3 -48.2 Factor Income -17.0 -21.8 -24.8 -31.0 -31.4 -46.9 -114.7 -283.5 Net Interest Payments (-9.4) (-13.4) (-18.0) (-19.5) (-23.8) (-38.4) (-91.5) (-193.1) Other Factor Service Income (Net) (-7.6) (-8.4) (-6.8) (-11.5) (-7.6) (-8.5) (-23.2) (-90.4) Current Transfers (Net) 7.1 13.4 15.4 12.0 13.0 14.0 7.5 4.0 Current Account Balance -39.1 -44.3 -21.7 -190.5 -140.5 -401.5 -327.7 Direct Foreign Investment 1.9 -13.4 4.6 20.8 53.4 37.0 129.5 100.0 Official Capital Grants - 8.0 10.0 9.0 10.5 7.0 - - Public M< Loans (Net) 50.1 100.5 15.7 64.3 99.3 186.6 291.7 Disbursements (70.2) (132.8) (48.6) (186) (568.7) (259.6) (457.1) (631.8) Repayments (-20.1) (-32.3) (-32.9) (-54.3) (-69.4) (-73.0) (-165.4) (-327.1) Other M< Loans 11.9 15.1 16.9 13.0 19.7 15.3 20.4 - TMF Drvngs 4.3 43 - - - - Other Short Term, Errors & Ominssions -35.1 -53.4 -30.9 -33.5 -47.5 -52.7 - - Change in Net Reserves (--Increase) 6.3 -16.8 15.4 -123.8 54.6 -52.9 -40.1 -77.0 Total Net Reserves (End of Period) 41.5 58.3 42.9 166.7 112.1 165.0 382.4 640.3 B. GRANT AND LOANS COMMIThIENTS Total M< Loans 89.3 180.0 78.2 173.7 392.6 384.7 IBRD - - - - 32.0 68.0 IDA 6.8 8.0 6.0 6.2 7.5 - Other Multilateral 20.0 27.0 11.2 35.0 104.6 55.5 Governments 35.2 71.7 34.1 64.0 109.2 33.3 Suppliers 3.9 27.4 16.6 8.7 39.7 30.0 Financial Institutions 23.3 23.1 9.9 56.0 89.3 197.9 Other 0.1 22.3 0.4 3.8 10.3 - C. MEMORANDUM ITEMS Grant Element yf Total Commitments (7.) 35.7 34.4 40.4 40.7 23.5 17.4 Average Interest (7.) 4.4 4.5 4.0 5.3 5.9 7.0 Average Maturity (Years) 24.3 19.9 23.0 25.8 17.9 13.8 D. EXTERNAL DEET Actual Debt Outstanding on Dec. 31, 1976 DEBT AND DEBT SERVICE Disbursed Only Percent 1973 1974 1975 1976 IBRD 27.3 2.7 A. MEDIUM & LONG TERM DEBT (DISBURSED ONLY) IDA 53.2 5.2 Total Debt Outstanding (DOD End of Period) 630.8 691.7 779.9 1,014.3 OTHER MULTILATERAL 66.0 6.5 Including Undisbursed 767.9 889.4 1,202.7 1,508.5 GOVERNIENIS 435.8 43.0 Public Debt Service 46.1 67.9 80.0 102.3 SUPPLIERS 66.4 6.5 Interest 15.8 17.3 23.6 35.3 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 243.3 24.0 BONDS 57.0 5.6 B. DEBT BURDEN PUBLIC DEBT N.E.I. 65.3 6.5 Debt Service Ratio 14.9 11.5 15.7 17.0 TOTAL PUBLIC M< DEBT 1,014.3 100.0 Debt Service Ratio 1/ 17.1 13.5 17.2 18.4 Debt Service/GDP 4.4 4.0 3.9 4.2 P.DENT PROFILE c EM C. TERMS Totil Debt Service 1977-80/Total DOU End of 1976 64.2 Interest on Total DOD/Total DOD 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.5 Total-Debt Service Ratio 7.3 9.8 10.3 10.1 D. DEPENDENCY RATIOS FOR MALT DEBT Gross Disbursement/Imports (incl. NFS) 14.6 22.9 24.7 36.6 Net Transfer/imports (incl. NFS) 9.1 11.1 21.4 Net Transfer/Gross Disbursement - 39.6 44.9 58.3 E. EXPOSURE 18RD DOD/Total DOD 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.7 Bank Group Dsb./Total DOD 8.4 8.9 9.0 7.9 IBRD Debt Service/Total Debt Service 4.6 5.0 2.0 2.6 Bank Group Debt Service/Total Debt Service 5.2 5.4 2.6 3.1 -iciing Net Direct Investment Income. ANNEX 1 Page 5 of 5 1/ CONTRACTED PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED EXTERNAL DEBT, 1969-1976 (US$ millions) 2/ 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976- International Organizations 39.1 6.9 26.8 35.0 17.2 41.2 144.1 123.5 CAF - - 0.1 2.0 1.2 - 38.1 6.3 IBRD 23.3 - - - - - 32.0 68.0 IDA 7.4 1.4 6.8 8.0 6.0 6.2 7.5 - IDB 8.5 5.5 19.9 25.0 10.0 35.0 66.5 49.2 Governments 30.0 17.2 35.2 71.7 34.1 64.0 109.2 33.3 Argentina 3.2 14.3 4.3 4.2 3.4 2.9 3.4 - Czechoslovakia - - 3.9 1.4 - - - - Germany F.R. 1.7 1.4 - - - 28.6 - 5.2 United Kingdom 1.4 - - 6.8 - - - - USA 22.7 1.5 25.3 40.0 26.5 28.8 26.9 25.3 USSR - - - 15.9 - - - - Others 1.0 - 1.7 3.4 4.2 3.7 18.9 2.8 Suppliers' Credits 11.5 1.6 3.9 27.4 16.6 8.7 39.7 30.0 Argentina - - 1.6 5.1 5.9 1.6 1.7 0.3 Belgium - - - - 5.8 0.1 - - Canada - - - - 3.7 - - - Denmark 0.7 1.3 - 0.8 0.2 - 3.0 - Germany F.R. 3.9 0.3 - - - - 11.0 - Israel - - - - - - 5.5 - Italy 2.1 - - 13.9 - - - - Japan - - 2.0 6.4 - - 10.8 4.4 Spain 3.3 - - - - - - - USA - - - 1.1 0.9 1.9 2.4 - Others 1.5 - 0.3 0.1 0.1 5.1 5.3 25.3 Private Banks 1.3 - 23.3 23.1 9.9 56.0 89.3 197.9 Brazil - - 12.0 7.9 4.7 13.5 - 2.8 USA 1.3 - 10.0 12.8 1.5 34.3 63.9 144.0 Others - - 1.3 2.4 3.7 8.2 25.4 51.1 Other 14.1 4.1 0.1 22.7 0.4 3.8 10.3 - Nationalization (USA) - 78.6 - 0.7 - - - 32/ TOTAL 96.2 108.4 89.3 180.0 78.9 173.7 392.6 384.7 1/ Repayable in foreign currency only. 2/ Provisional 3/ Net of adjustments and cancellations. Source: Central Bank, IBRD Social and Economic Data Division. ANNEX II Page 1 of 3 THE STATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN BOLIVIA A. STATEMENT OF BANK LOANS AND IDA CREDITS (As of July 31, 1977) -------- US$ million-------- Loan or (Amount less cancellations) Credit # Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed Fully disbursed loans and credits 23.3 38.6 261 1971 Bolivia Livestock 6.8 1.1 433 1973 Bolivia Power 6.0 0.1 455 1974 Bolivia Mining/Manufacturing 6.2 2.7 561 1975 Bolivia Agriculture 7.5 5.8 1121 1975 ENFE Railways 28.7 5.1 1211 1976 Bolivia Rural Development 9.5 9.1 1238 1976 ENDE IV Power 25.0 23.3 1290 1976 Bolivia Mining/Manufacturing 10.0 10.0 1324 1976 Bolivia Water Supply and Sewerage 11.5 11.5 1331 1976 Bolivia Small-Scale Mining 12.0 12.0 Total 120.0 1/ 65.1 80.70 Of which has been repaid 5.7 0.5 Total held by Bank and IDA 114.3 64.6 Total undisbursed 80.70 B. STATEMENT OF IFC INVESTMENTS (As of July 31, 1977) Fiscal Amount in US$ million Year Obligator Type of Business Loan Equity Total 1973 Plasmar, S.A. Cables and Plastic Products 0.3 0.1 0.4 1976 Banco Hipotecario Nacional Capital Market 0.3 0.3 1976 Banco Industrial S.A. Development Financing 0.6 0.6 Total 0.3 1.0 1.3 1/ Not including loans of US$15 million for an Education and Vocational Training Project, US$35 million for a Third Railway Project and US$25 million for an Aviation Development Project which were not yet effective as of July 31, 1977. ANNEX II Page 2 of 3 C. PROJECTS IN EXECUTION Credit 261-BO - Third Livestock Development Project, US$6.8 million, June 25, 1971; Effective Date: September 15, 1971; Closing Date: June 30, 1978 After implementation slowed down in 1974, the project is now pro- ceeding as scheduled and the credit should be fully disbursed by the Closing Date. Credit 455-BO - Mining Credit Project, US$6.2 million, January 18, 1974; Effective Date: June 18, 1974; Closing Date: June 30, 1978 The project is proceeding as scheduled and the credit should be fully disbursed by the Closing Date. Credit 561-BO - Agricultural Credit I, US$7.5 million, June 20, 1975; Effective Date: December 15, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1979 The project is proceeding as scheduled. Loan 1121-BO - Second Railway Project, US$28.7 million, June 5, 1975; Effective Date: August 6, 1975; Closing Date: December 31, 1978 The Borrower has arranged bilateral financing for locomotives in the project and in accordance with the understanding reached with the Bank, the loan amount has been reduced from $32 million to $28.7 million. Project progress has been satisfactory with performance targets either having been attained or exceeded. Loan 1211-BO - Ingavi Rural Development Project, US$9.5 million, March 8, 1976; Effective Date: October 7, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1982 The project is proceeding as scheduled. Loan 1238-BO - Fourth ENDE Power Project, US$25 million, June 2, 1976; Effective Date: August 23, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1980 The project is proceeding as scheduled. Loan 1290-BO - Banco Industrial Mining and Industrial Credit Project, US$10 million, October 15, 1976; Effective Date: April 14, 1977; Closing Date: December 31, 1980 The project is proceeding as scheduled. ANNEX II Page 3 of 3 Loan 1324-BO - Urban and Rural Communities Water Supply and Sewerage Project; US$11.5 million, October 15, 1976; Effective Date: December 10, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 The project is proceeding as scheduled. Loan 1331-BO - Small-Scale Mining Development Project, US$12 million, October 15, 1976; Effective Date: July 15, 1977; Closing Date: December 31, 1980 The project is proceeding as scheduled. Loan 1404-BO - Education and Vocational Training Project, US$15 million, May 11, 1977; Effective Date: September 7, 1977; Closing Date: December 31, 1981 The project is proceeding as scheduled. Loan 1422-BO - Third Railway Project, US$35 million, June 6, 1977; Effective Date: ; Closing Date: December 31, 1981 The loan is expected to become effective soon. Loan 1423-BO - Aviation Development Project; US$25 million, June 9, 1977; Effective Date: ; Closing Date: June 30, 1983. The loan is expected to become effective soon. ANNEX III Page 1 of 2 BOLIVIA URBAN DEVELOPMENT PROJECT Supplementary Project Data Sheet Section I - Timetable of Key Events (a) Time taken to prepare project: Twelve months (b) Agencies which prepared project: CONAVI/Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, Municipality of La Paz and Bank (c) First presentation to Bank: March 1976 (d) First Bank mission to review project: May 1976 (e) Departure of appraisal mission: February 1, 1977 (f) Completion of negotiations: August 5, 1977 (g) Planned Date of Effectiveness: December 1977 Section II - Special Bank Implementation Actions None. Section III - Special Conditions 1. The Bank has obtained assurances that: (a) CONAVI would prepare a detailed three-year investment plan by December 1, 1977 (paragraph 31). (b) The Government would maintain the Coordinating Commission to ensure the efficient implementation of the project and effective coordination of all participating agencies (paragraph 33). (c) The Government would ensure that SAXAPA will provide adequate quantities of water in time to meet the project's require- ments (paragraph 34). (d) The Municipality would adopt appropriate layout design and more efficient approval procedures construction standards for sites and services and low-income housing (paragraph 35). ANNEX III Page 2 of 2 (e) CONAVI would establish and maintain a special unit, whose staffing and organization will be acceptable to the Bank, for the implementation of the Sites and Services Component (paragraph 38). (f) The Municipality would adopt legal arrangements to provide beneficiaries with titles to their plots in the Urban Upgrading areas and present legal evidence of such arrangements to the Bank (condition of disbursement for the Urban Upgrading component - paragraph 40). (g) BISA would contribute US$500,000 of its own funds to the Credits for Artisans and Small-Scale Enterprises component (paragraph 47). (h) The Municipality would raise the charges for market stalls in the retail food markets to levels that will eventually permit cost recovery of both current operations and capital investments (paragraph 53). (i) The Government would guarantee up to US$300,000 or 30% of the total outstanding BISA credits under the project whichever is less for possible defaults in the Credits for Artisans and Small-Scale Enterprises (paragraph 53). 2. Conditions of Effectiveness would be that: The Subsidiary Loan Agreements between the Borrower and CONAVI, HAM and BISA, respectively, and the Financing and Fiscal Agency Agreement between the Borrower and BANVI, had been executed. 3. Condition of Disbursement (for Categories (1) and (2) under Part B of the Project) would be that: The Bank had been furnished legal evidence satisfactory to it that HAM had made arrangements to provide the participants in the urban upgrading with secure tenure to their plots. -BRD－】3035 근
Группа Всемирного банка · Memorandum & Recommendation of the President
Bolivia - Urban Development Project
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Memorandum & Recommendation of the President
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