Upper Volta background to regional and urban development

DRAFT ORR~-74o I THE WORLD BANK DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT URBAN AND REGIONAL ECONOMICS DIVISION URBAN AND REGIONAL REPORT No. 76-1 UPPER VOLTA BACKGROUND TO REGIONAL AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT S. A. AGUNBIADE February 1976 These materials are for internal use only and are circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. Views are those of the author and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the World Bank. References in publications to Reports should be cleared with the author to protect the tentative character of these papers. UPPER VOLTA BACKGROUND TO REGIONAL AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT S.A. Agunbiade February 1976 UPPER VOLTA BACKGROWMD TO REGIONAL AND URBAN DEVELOPNENT TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. INTRODUCTION ........ . . ...... ,**.... ....... . 1 SUM ARY ........ .. .. .......i - iv PART I I. GENERAL OVERVIEW ......................E................ II. POPULATION AND ITS DISTRIBUTION IN UPPER VOLTA ........ Distribution and Trends .... . 5 III. MIGRATION IN UPPER VOLTA .......................... 11 General ... .... ...................... ... ...... 1 The Bases of Eigration ...... .................... . 13 Labor Policy in Neighboring Countries ....... 16 Internal Migration ... .................. 17 Migration and its Effects on'the Economy ....... 19 Social Overheads ........................................ 20 Directions for Policy ................... 22 PART II IV. STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOAY: SPATIAL AND SECTORAL ......... 26 The Spatial Structure ............ . ............. 26 Central Places in Upper Vla ..................#....... 26 The Role of Central Places in Upper Volta's Development 28 Past Trends ............................... . . . . .... 29 The City of Ouagadougou ...................go........... 30 Occupational Structure .................................. 37 Central Places and the Modern Sector in Upper Volta's Economy .............................................. 38 Recent and Future Roles of Central Places in the Development of Upper Volta .................. 39 The"Urban Sector" and Recent Developments in the Upper Volta Economy Relevant Population Statistics .o Sectoral Structure of the Economy ........o.............. 41 Agriculture ............................................ t1 Manufacturing ........................................... 43 Manpower, Employment, and Income ........................ 45 The Institutional Framework and Central Places ......... 8 Locating Development Centers in Upper Volta ............. 49 Transportation ...................... .................t* 53a. The Road Network ............wo..... .. ... ........ 54 Transport Development Objectives ........................ 56 -2- TABLE OF CONTENTS (ctd.) Page No. V. INVESTMENT ALLOCATION IN THE DEVELOPMENT PLANS AND BANK PROJECTS IN UPPER VOLTA ..................... 9 Effects of Spatial Allocation of Investmentsve 61 Bank Projects in Upper Volta ................... 61 The Rural Roads Project .....................o........... 62 The West Volta Cotton Project ........................... 62 The Livestock Development Project ....................... 63 VI. CONCLUSIONS .................. ...................... .. 65 Population .............................................. 65 Migration ............................................... 65 Structure of the Economy ................................ 66 DRAFT BAgunbiade:mk Feb. 3, 1976 INTRODUCTION The objectives of a background analysis for development planning are broadly twofold, namely: (a) to provide an understanding of the relative distribution of various resources involved in development planning, i.e., human, institutional, environmental, economic, and infra- structureithe.nature of existing interrelationships and processes of interactions among the distributions; and (b) given the goals and objectives of development, to find out what, where and to what extent among the distributions and their interactions, intervention is required. The task of this paper, therefore, is to bring the above objec- tives to bear on urban and regional development in Upper Volta. The focus of the analysis is on the urban sector, urban places, regions, resources, and channels as media for resource mobility. The opening chapter provides a brief overview of the country--its relative location, its population, and its political-economic history. Chapters 2 and 3 deal with the population, its trends and spatial distribution and its mobility within and out of the country. Some direc- tions for policy based upon an objective evaluation of the process of migration are suggested. There is a brief treatment of transportation in Chapter 4 which draws attention to the interrelationships between transport development, regional development, and mass emigration from Upper Volta. The spatial and sectoral structure of the economy and their roles in the process of development receive attention in Chapter 5, while Chapter 6 reviews and appraises investment allocation in Upper Volta's development plans and the Bank's role in the country's development process. -2- Although each chapter contains elements of conclusions, the last chap-ter swnmarizes the main conclusions from the analysis. UPPER VOLTA BACKGROUND TO REGIONAL AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT SUMMARY Regional Setting 1. Upper Volta is completely landlocked. Its main outlets to the sea and international markets include three ports, namely Abidjan in the Ivory Coast, Tema in Ghana, and Cotonou in the republic of Benin. Owing to its distance from all these ports Upper Volta's international trade is very sensitive to transport costs. 2. The country is one of the seven Sahelian countries recently struck by prolonged drought. The northern and eastern parts of the country straddle the Southern fringes of the Sahara desert, which accounts for the low rain- fall and fragile soils in these parts. 3. To the southwest and west where rainfall is higher, ri*er blindness is prevalent and accounts for the sparse population and low intensity of cultivation on the otherwise better agricultural soils. Population 4. Upper Volta is the most populous of the Sahelian countries with an estimated 1972 theoretical population of about 6.023 million, two-thirds of which are concentrated on the poor soils of the mossi plateau. Population growth rate is about 1.8 percent per year, comparatively modest by African standards. 5. The country is about 98 percant rural, and about 95 percent of the active population is agricultural. The proportion classified as urban is -ii. - still less than 10 percent and is concentrated in three cities, namely Ouagadougou, Bobo-Dioula8so and Kondougou; all three cities continue to grow fast under the impetus of migration and development investments. Miration 6. A significant proportion of Upper Volta's active population is resident outside the country. Migration, especially during French colonial administration, was induced by forced labor and recruitment into the French colonial army. The process whereby Voltaics were commandeered to cultivate cotton for export and minimal wages, or to serve on plantations in the Ivory Coast and pay high taxes, stimulated mass emigration to Ghana and away from areas of French authority within Upper Volta. 7. After the cessation of forced labor, the incentive to emigrate became the inadequacy of opportunities for employment in Upper Volta, the poll tax, and the influence of previous emigrants. Economic complementarities between Upper Volta and her southern neighbors coupled with conducive immigration policies in those countries continue to favor emigration from Upper Volta. Structure of the Economy 8. The economy is based on agriculture which provides employment for over 95 percent of the labor force; formal modern sector accounts for slightly more than one percent of employment while the informal modern sector accounts for the remaining proportion. 9. Although very small, the modern sector is relatively more produc- tive than the traditional sector. Efforts are being made by the government in conjunction with external financial sources to integrate the traditional sector with the modern sector, thereby increasirg productivity, output, and incomes in the two sectors. 10. Transportation is hampered not so much by absence of roads as by inadequate maintenance of existing ones. Efforts are being accordingly directed at improvement and maintenance of existing roads, as well as con- struction of new ones to link isolated areas of economic potential to the mai.nzfl ream of the corunitryli economy, 11. i)Devrel clv , nbplalnn ig In R Ad towprod agrI ctur U. development As the m in cPrObMA RM~- (1 )S MI Q'T.' W? "dP pUIa',,'14 V P- I-sure dis tribution; (2) inadoqaLe manpower renono:; and fi naloquate economic 'infrastructure, dnvolopment SAdYlgy In kmAtA to lung-torm redistribution of population to agricu hurn.resoure area, the training of required manpower, and the provision of nno ary Lro"sort, marKet, and other facilities essential for mobilizing people and economic resources. The OfR) (Rgional Development Organs) structure 'is the main in3trument of development planning and execution. 12. The Bank Group's involvement in the country's development has been tuned to the government's overall development goal, namely self-sufficiency in food production and increased earnings from export products. Health, transport, manpower training and agricultural development have been the key objects of Bank projects. Strategy for Urban and Regional Development 13. Given the agricultural economic base of the country, a growth injecting central place system should feature strong economic linkages with the rural sector. Only Bobo-Dioulasso, Loudougou and Ouagadougou to a lesser extent, seem to have the type of economic linkages that can stimulate agri- cultural econoMl growth. There is still a lot of roim to vainforce these linkages and to establish them between the newly emerging regional centers and their hinterlands. Priority should be given to the development of market and credit institaions, agricultural extension training, and health improvement. Inadequate transport between agricultural -tr2 '.' we :- 01 t- anc bend and market centers on the other can be a serious constraint on trade, and, therefore, cash income. The overall strategy should be namely to: (1) equip Bobo-Dioulasso and Ouagadougou as national agro-industrial and service centers; (2) develop a number of rationally selected nodes on the transport network as regional market centers; (3) enhance intra-regional and inter-regional trade within the country by improving transport and market facilities; (4) intensify efforts to harness potential agricultural areas in the Volta basin, pushing the settlement frontier incrementally into the Volta basin and valleys. I. GETERAL OVERVIE,W' 1.01 Upper Volta is geographically central to all the countries of West Africa but economically peripheral to most of them. It is bounded in the south by the more populous and economically more prosperous Ivory Coast, Ghana, Togo, and the not-so-populous or prosperous Dahomey. To the north, west, and northeast are Mali and Niger. Except for Ghana, al of Upper Volta's neighbors were, like Upper Volta, former French colonies. The country is completely landlocked. 1.02 French colonial rulers in 1932 considered the country economically unviable and, accordingly, split it between the Ivory Coast, Mali, and Niger. "Subsequently, pressures fr6m various quarters resulted in its reconstitution in 19l7. It is ... a perfect example of an outback country that never ,benefitted in any way from colonial development; on the other hand, with its plentiful supply of labor, it has provided the primary economies of the coastal areas (the Ivory Coast and Ghana) with a fair proportion of their labor force.11/ 1.03 Whatever those "pressures from various quarters" were, they overcame only the explicitly political aspects, but-not the more,subtle spatial economic aspects, of forces whose fields penetrate Upper Volta. 1./ Ambroise Songre, "Mass Emigration from Upper Volta: the facts and implications," International Labor Review: Vol. 108, Nos. 2 and 3, August/September 1973, as abstracted in &istics 221, April 1974. -2 - 1.04 There have been some attempts to analyze the economies of the Sahel region from a macro-regional perspective.- __ One of them was focused on the recent drought in the region, highlighting "the causes, nature and effects ..., and the means of alleviating these." (Thid page 3.) Pragmatic economic development considerations pertinent to development planning in the region, and more specifically to the Bank's operations in the region, were the concern of the regional program papers (RPP). The RPF identified the "key problem" as "... whether the ecosystem can support as many living beings as at present, or more, and under what conditions," and went on to say, concerning economic development, that I... thi- pace of economic and social progress in the Region depends upon the rate of growth in agricultural production and productivity." (Page 7) It was also recognized (page 1) that, although the Sahelian countries have similar histories,' geographical and ecological characteristics, there are "many substantial differences among the 20 million people or so ...." One such difference may well be their relative locations vis-a-vis countries contiguous to, but outside the region, e.g., Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria. 1/ See for examle, David Dalby & R.J. Harrison Church, Eds., "Drought in Africa," Report of The 1973 Symposium, Center for African Studies, School of Oiental and African Studies, Univ. of London. 2/ IBRD, "The Sahel: Regional Program Paper," January 16, 1975. 3_/ Sahel Transportation Paper, West Africa Projects Department, April 1975. -3 1.05 The problem as identified above seems to ignore the essence of the regionts relationships with its southern neighbors. Over the years, and particularly recently, one important way the region has coped with the harshness of the ecosystem can be described as "strategic withdrawal" of people through outward migration. Upper Volta has been the most seriously affected in this regard.'/ 1.06 With regard to Upper Volta, however, ecological factors merely reinforce "ekternallf economic factors to stimulate outward migration. The drought,whose devestating effects on Sahelian economies only recently attracted international attention, has been a cyclic phenomenon in the region for ages. Normal annual rainfall in the entire eastern half of the country ranges between 500 mm and 1,000 mm, often concentrated in about three months of the year. This range of rainfall and its duration, coupled with poor soils, especially on the Mossi plateau, defines a fragile eco- system which in turn induces migration. It has been estimated by agronomists that a population density of '0 persons per square kilometer is critically high for the land resources on the plateau. Hence, with population densi- ties ranging between 20 and 125 persons per square kilometer, the Mossi plateau provides a reservoir of migrants. 1.07 Three principles of spatial interaction 2/ have been manifest in the process, namely, (a) complementarity, (b) intervening opportunities, and (c) transferability bebween Upper Volta and its neighbors with respect to 1/ The sizeable body of migration studies of Upper Volta include: (i) J.W. Gregory, "Development and In-Migration in Upper Volta," Special Studies (undated); (ii) -- "Migration in Upper Volta," African Urban Notes, Vol. VI, No. 1, Spring 1971; (iii) Ambroise Songre, "Mass Rxigration from Upper Volta: the facts and Implications," International Labor Review, Vol. 108, Nos. 2 and 3, August/September 1973; (iv) Julien Cond6, "Urbanization and Migration in West Africa," OECD Development Center, Paris, 1974. 2/ Edward Ullman, "The Role of Transportation and the Bases for Inter- action," in Man's Role in Changing the Face of the Earth: ed. Willian L. Thomas, Chicago. The University of Chicago Press, 1956, pp. 862-880. -4- human and economic resources. These principles, operating on people and economic resources, tend "...to create an optimum regional economic struc- ture and to ensure that in all areas factors of production which are unutilized or badly utilized are mobAlized for general economic growth.1"1/ For any two places to interact, their resources. must be complementary, i.e., one place has demand for what the other supplies. The potential for interaction between any two places is also partly determined by opportuni- ties existing in the intervening space. If we are considering supply of a good from place A to place B we have to consider a set of places 0 --- Cn between A and B which might act as intervening supply or demand sources.for the goo The greater tho similarity between intervening opportunities and either of the supply and demand sources, the less the degree of interaction between them and vice versa. And a flow between complementary resources occurs only if they are transferable, i.e., the time and money costs are not prohibitive. 1/ D. Biehl, E. Hussmann, S. Schnyder, "Determinants of Regional Development Potential: Infrastructure, Economic Structure and Agglomerat--on," The German Econ. Review (Stutgart) 13: No. 2, p. 117, 1975. II. POPULATIONAND ITS DISTRIBUTION IN UPPER VOLTA Distribution and Trends 2.01' Upper Volta's population, currently about 6 million, is pre- dominantly rural. According to estimates contained in the 1972-76 Development Plan!/ the country's population was about 90 percent rural in 1960 and is expected to remain at about 86 percent rural in 1980. These figures imply that urban population is expected to increase from about 10 percent in 1960 to about 14 percent in 1980. The United Nations corresponding projectionsi/ for Upper Volta for the respective years' are as follows: Table 1: URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION Urban Rural 1960 5.3% 94.7% 1970 7.2% 92.8% 1980 9.5% 90.5% 2.02 The UN's urban population projections probably excluded occupationally rural but residentialay urban,people who form a large part of Upper Vota's "urban" population. If this is the case, then the two sets of projections are more or less consistent. 1/ Documents Annexes, Republique de Haute-Volta, Plan Quingrennal de Development Economique et Social, 1972-76, p. 67. 2/ Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the UN Secretariat, "Trends and Prospects in Urban and Rural Population, 1950-2000, As Assessed in 1973-74," April 1975, and ItUrban and Rural Projec- tions...," October 1974. 3/ See E.P. Skinner, African Urban Life': The Transfomation of Ouagadougou, 1974, pp. 35-88. -6- 2.03 Even by African standards, Upper Volta is still very rural. As the sample data of countries presented below shows, only Tanzania has a smaller proportion of urban population. Conversely, however, Upper Volta's urban population growth rate appears typical for an African country. Between 1960 and 1970 1/ the total resident population grew at about 1.9 percent per year while the UN's population projections for the country indicate an urban growth rate of between 4.46 percent and 5.28 percent per year (1960-80). Table 2 Area Percent Urban Urban Growth Rate Preceding 5 Years 1960 1970 1980 1960 1970 1980 Africa 17.72 21.89 27.42 - .56 4,90 4.98 West Africa 12.84 16.34 20.76 5.06 4.90 5.13 Ivory Coast 10.46 16.84 24.06 7.00 7.02 6.00 Tanzania h.52 5.97 7.77 4.93 5.35 5.50 Nigeria 13.03 16.26 20.21 4.60 4.67 5.0l Upper Volta 5.34 7.21 9.50o 4.46 5.01 5.28 All Sahelian Countries 7.51 9.94 12.75 4.43 5.56 5.24 Source: Department of Social and Economic Affairs, U.N. Secretariat, Ibid. 2.04 In 1970, the total urban population was about 401,491 distributed among 52 localities. As definitions of "urban place" tend to vary from country to country, the mean size of Upper Volta's 49 secondary centers which was 3,354 in 1/ See Bulletin Mensuel d'Information Statistique et Economique: Enquete Demographique Ouagadougou, 1968, p. 21 and Estimates, Direction de la Statistique et de la Mecanographie, 1970. -.7- 1970 is adopted as the size of the smallest 'urban' community. 2.05 According to the 1970 estimates, the three largest cities, Ouagadougou, Bobo-Dioulasso, and Koudougou, contained about 59.6 percent of total urban population (see Table 3 below). Table 3: DISTRIBUTION OF URBAN POPULATION IN UPPER VOLTA, 1959-1970 Population % of Total Implied Annual Urban Growth Rate % Ouagadougou 59,126 (1961) 105,000 (1970) 25.8 6.6 Bobo-Dioulasso 54,260 (1959) 94,583 (1970) 23.3 5.2 Koudougou 21,000 (1959) 42,566 (1970) 10.5 6.6 All Secondary Centers 74,130 (1960-61) 1.',342 (1970) 40.4 8.3 to 9.3 Source: J.W. Gregory, "Development and In-Migration in Upper Volta," Mimeo, undated. Ouagadougou, the capital city, contained about 26 percent; Bobo, the com- mercial headquarters, 23 percent; and Koudougou, an emerging agro-urban town, 10.5 percent. All three major centers are strung out on the country's only railway line which links it to the Ivory Coast. 2.06 By implication from the figures in Table 3, the 49 secondary centers grew faster then the three principal centers during the 1960s. But evidence from the 1972-76 DevelopmEnt Plan Annex is to the contrary (see Appendix Table 1) The figures in Annex Table 1 indicate that the three principal cities grew 8- at 5.3 percent p.a. between 1960 and 1970 while the secondary centers as a 1/ .group grew at 3.7 percent. The relative shares of the three groups of urban places as contained in the Development Plan estimates are presented below: Table 4:' PROPORTION (PERCENT) OF TOTAL URBAN POPULATION Category of Cities 1960 1970 1975 Group I Centers 35.4 39.83 42.06 Group II Centers 22.78 22.03 22.06 Group III Centers 41.77 38.13 35.86 Source: Annex Table 1. 2.07 It is important to have fairly unequivocal evidence on the spatial incidence of urban (and overall) population growth in order to avoid mis- placement of spatial planning emphasis. Figures are not available for each of the 49 secondary centers; hence their spatial distribution is not precisely known, although a settlement map of the country indicates a concentration of settlements on the Mossi plateau and in the western and southwestern parts, a reflection partly of the distribution of climatic and pedological regimes in the country, and partly of the history of population (Mossi) settlement on the plateau. 2.08 Compared to other African countries with comparable climatic and 1/ This discrepancy is partly due to the non-comparabil.ity of the statistical Tases of the two sets of figures. It is not known, for instance, how many villes constituted the secondary centers during each base year in table 3 above. 2/ Group I = Ouagadougou, Bobo-Dioulasso, and Koudougou Group II the next 12 largest localities Group III = the 37 smallest 'urban' localities. -9- pedologic environments, Upper Volta is densely populated. Although available rural population figures represent only those who were not "hiding from tax collectors" at the times of the surveys (1965, 1968) and consequently under- estimate the true population, they give a fairly accurate comparative picture of the distribution across the country. Population is concentrated.in the 1/ central part of the country, away from the river valleys. 2.09 A CVRS rural population density map of the countx2 (Georges Savonnet, CVRS/ORSTOM, 1968) shows that highest densities are found in Yatenga, northern 3/ Koudougou, Kaya, and Ouagadougou ORDs. There is an L-shaped band of highest density (75 to 124.9 persons per km2) stretching southwards from Gourcy to Samba and eastwards from Samba to Bouss&. Ouagadougou itself lies in a 35-49.9 persons per km2 zone although the Ouagadougou district proper had slightly above 100 persons per km2. 2.10 Apart from the Mossi plateau, there are three other major zones of relatively high rural population density. There is a small area centered on Banfora (35-49.9 persons/km2) which thins out along the railway line towards Bobo-Dioulasso (20-34.9 persons/km2), reflecting the pull of the railway and the agricultural-industrial importance of the area. In the southwest border areas (with Ghana and the Ivory Coast) four pockets of high densiby are centered on Diebougou (0-74.9), Dissin (50-74.9), and Gaoua (35-49-9.). The third zone of high densities lies to the southeast of the Mossi plateau. In this area, Tenkodogo (50-74.9), Manga (50-74.9), Po and Tifb616 (50-74.9), and Zabr6 (50-74.9) are the -core localities. Table 5 shows the population picture on the Mossi plateau in 1972. 1/ See population density map attached. 2/ Georges Savonnet, Population Density Map of Upper Volta, CVRS/0RSTOM, 1968. 3/ See section III-B below for a brief description of ORDs. - 10 - 2.11 This pattern of population density is closely related to the 1/ transport network. The most populous districts are centered on nodal 2/ towns;e eg., Ouagadougou, Ouahigouya, Kaya, Yako, Banfora, Bobo-Diolasso, Koudougou, and Tenkodogo. It appears, therefore, that population growth and distribution have closely followed the development of transport..If this is true, the rural transport network could become an instrument of population redistribution, particularly to the Southern parts of Koudougou, and Ouagadougo ORDs after clearing the area of diseases. The Bank's transport development projects are in this direction. Moreover, transport development and disease eradication programs in the Red and White Volta valleys could be harmonized for maximum effect on population redistribution to the sparsely populated river valleys and southern Koudougoix ORD. 2.12 However, Upper Volta's population problem is more than just a problem of redistribution within the country. As the section on migration, will show, population and migration and their effects on the economy need to be more fully understood before effective policies can be formulated and strategies designed. 1/ See attached map of transport network and the population density map. The pattern also expresses-the relative inertia of the Mossi who have settled on the plateau since the 12th century. Migration from the plateau has tended to be more out of the country (to the Ivory Coast and Ghana) than to other parts of the country. Despite migration, however, densities on the plateau are still considered too high. 2/ See Table 5. ТаЪ1.е . � � �г ; '1'г ' �' , t+. i � .. .. - -` � i, )� Т� !� �„ � Г�.� t� � г .. �. S : i ' ,. ь 1г' " L' >.4�' � ' 4 ' rп..... ....,м.... ... .ы � и.н ,,. .�.ыW �ч.и....Г.wн- Г j .Р ; ,'ди�. �wf`, ��. ....... .. ы... ;�'. ць.=. .4j1.r.... ,.ь. У. �.�.(.л.... ь гчг+ч.г,+. ч.�. н.. 17t�ti � ьь���.���г'�� чг�'1 . 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'S I ь1 !ч �i 4l г ' +.,.-� .' ,'.r �� )ч�1 ��� ' г°. .. п ь4 i У+� �� , , ь ч у в - , � , ,1,г.�� i� J`; ь�� . ь.. � .'r�� r.CS..�. , � 4 'f /+.; ч 1�,i� J� . � � вьуГ 1lиь 4'!�'1 �++�1 и4� � . , 7 �1 ��у . ь� ' � 7 �5 . .. ,, С, w '�� � � �, а.°? ., ) �. � . .� ,� ... ,�гоF. 1.ы�;,7 . . ,, � � . 1 i;n гу . .7.f� :� ' . .. - '/г"' Г°� . _ ь .�. .� 1 + �� �++� ++ L� , , l`!`�г ,г..� ь( а� о ! . . � , ;�„�,_�7 '�,�i , � +.4 . ' �� . 1 �� . . . � .. . . : t ' � ы'�:У1 • Dra'wn from 3.ndiv3.dua1. ORD reportв for the 19%2/7Э вrвр year. III. MIGR9210N IN UPPER VOLTA General. 3.01 couJA become vi.Jäinr 1)ecause its supply and demand polnts -IT-P rlpn(ARII'y 11';'101.nt' ov Hw- otlj(;ýr i-(-,sourcp,3 with which, i bu tý JA I m r- 1. 1) ni: vo 'p] V (d L;- i, Jabor appenra to b .91 if. -1' läv, "c Kulanill Uh Wr-;L. the llgt,ocnl' vnri,y, ov wr'ý.'(' nyv! urt),an Bli thn 1;< . " p I >1 ljf i ve,- h Pr-oj e c[ 3Gu ck ',t -1., ')wns , , I -1ý ;ire to expcrlencrý lncreas,ý,9 Di s vetock-i,elated trade. for :i.nstance A nmmriaij oj, -tjle p'rojecVlists five com- ponents, f our o£ w6 1, i ovi-speräfic or po LerjtiýJ,ly so. - The f o-Ur I component,- are ns fol Ir-ws: (1) nbie group rancljtrýr, and a rarirh devel.opment center; (2) servi.ces throughout D(.-,dougý)u and Bobo-Dioulasso 0, (.3) n Lve,,<ý,ock market and holding ground at Bobo-Dioulasso as well ts '730 km of stock routes, and at Bobo-Diou-lasso, to be renovated. Since the two ORIV,' are not traditional livestock areas, these livesljeck inVo,,;lxv,itlý projectrý constitute new inpu,t-- into the area and,, if implemented accoi,elinp-, to plan, will attract new"migrants to the area and generate increases in productivity and cash incomes. 1/ Bank Report No. 674a-UV, Livestock Developnent Project, attached map. . ..... ... .. - 12 - 3.04 The more relevant and, for the Upper Volta economy, controversial, type of migration is the relatively permanent one. On the one hand, there is need to stimulate further migration from the densely populated and ecologically threatened central (Mossi) plateau to the less densely populated and high-agricultural-potential areas of the south and southwest. on the other hand, the Government is concerned about the high proportion of Voltaic potential labor force migrating to, and permanently resident at, neighboring countries. The sheer magnitude of numbers of people involved provokes questions,as to why so many people are migrating, what the effects of these movements are on the country, and how (in terms of policy measures) to cope with the phenomenon. 3.05 Magnitude of the Phenomenon. Since 1960, the total number of Voltaics living abroad has risen steadily. Table 5 shows the trend: Table 6: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF VOLTAIC EMIGRANTS ('000) 1960 1965 1970 1973 1. Total Permanent Emigrants 250 300 404 543 2. Temporary Emigrants 152 166 181 194 3. All Emigrants 402 466 585 737 4. Total Potential Labor Force 2,186 2,37 2,525 2,650 5. Ratio of 3 to 4 18-38% 19.85% 23.16% 27.81% Source: Table 17, Bank Report No. 56ha-uV, Page 38. 3.06 The majority of Voltaic emigrants are domiciled in the Ivory Coast and Ghana. The 1960 census of Ghana shows, for instance, that of that country's 538,000 foreigners, 194,590 (36.16 percent) were from Upper Volta. And until the Houghouet-Boigny law which stopped forced labor in French West Africa in 1945 (effectively in 1947 when Upper Volta became a separate country once again) Upper Volta was a source of virtually free, forced supply of labor for plantations in the Ivory Coast. The trend in international population movement in the Ivory Coast was, therefore, the mirror image of that in Upper Volta. In 1965, 25 percent (one million) of Ivory Coast's population were foreigners; in 1970, the proportion of foreigners was 36.4 percent (two million oub of a total 5.5 million). The magnitude and direction- ality of emigration from Upper Volta reflect fundamental complementarities between the country and its neighbors. The Bases of Emigration 3.07 Economic. One fundamental basis of emigration from Upper Volta is the economic complementarity between it and Ghana and the Ivory Coast. The two latter countries have the economic resource base and Upper Volta the needed labor. It has been said that "...The develop- ment of industrial agriculture in Ghana and the Ivory Coast was only made possible by the flow of laborers immigrating from the neighboring (i.e., commandeered) countries.. .In 1951 and 1952, 90,000 people were sent/from Bobo-Dioulasso ...to the coffee plantation in the Ivory Coast. According to admin- istration records, the annual average number of workers coming from Upper Volta to the Ivory Coast between 1953 and 1958 was 35,000." To tie the phenomenon down to the concepts of supply and demand, however, is to underplay the importance of colonial economic history. 1/ Jullen Conde, "Urbanization and Migration in West Africal, Development Center, Paris, 1974. It is doubtful whether the degree of mobility observed between Upper Volta and lvory Coast would have been that high had it not been for French colonial economic policy in the area. The partial merging of Upper Volta with the Ivory Coast from 1932 until. 1947 and the administrative, trans- portation, and political commonalities contingent upon the merger stimu- lated, and sustained the process and pattern of labor mobility to push labor from Upper Volta to the Ivory Coast. Since the end of colonial rule, how- ever, taxation may have been an f unconscious instrument inducing migration (internal and external). For, although the country benefits from emigrants' remittances in form of "external transfers", such transfers in effect represent tax on the incomes of the emigrants since the resident Voltaic peasants and herders who receive the remittances have to spend it on poll tax and indirect tax through high domestic prices. Such a marginal income cum tax relationship provides an economic rationale par excellence for people to migrate to the source of the marginal income. 3.08 Ecological factors. Only about one-third of Upper Volta's land area is currently ecologically stable in terms of rainfall, soil, and vegetation. Population distribution is maladjusted to economic resource distribution, as about 60 percent of the country's population is crowded on the Mossi Plateau, while the remaining 40 percent are scattered all over the relatively more fertile southwestern and western parts. Given the space- 1 intensive mode of agricultural land use and the rather miniscule non- 2 agricultural employment base, the environment induces a motivation for 3 the adventurous ones to migrate. 1/ It has been estimated that a density of 40 persons per square kilometer threatens agricultural land, given the mode of cultivation. 2/ Various estimates (Bank, AID) put the proportion of modern sector employ- ment at between 1.0 percent and 1. percent of the country's active population. 3/, Generally, the majority of migrants are young, adult, unmarried males; migration of women tends to follow that of men.in sequence as earlier migrant males later on bring their women to their destinations. See page 20 of Julien Conde, Ibid. The results of a sample survey of 100 'absentees', for example, revealed that females are motivated more by 'family reasons' than by any other reasrn to Mgt a more so t - 15 - produce high unemployment rates and induce people to search for alternative places of employment.. The excess labor supply is reflected in high urban unemployment rate,.certain estimates of which are, however, not too reliable. 1/ 3.10 Transferability of Labor. Labor is particularly mobile between Upper Voltatand the Ivory Coast and, to a lesser extent, Ghanajowing partly to the high level of information flows about employment and income oppor- tunities and the transferability of labor facilitiated by transportation facilities connectiqg Upper Volta to the two countries. A map of the trans- port network in Upper Volta (attached) shows major outlets to the Ivory Coast and Ghana. The railway line connecting the Ivory and Upper Volta is jointly owned by the governments of the two countries,and transport costs are not prohibitive. Besides, the line extends far into the high-density Mossi plateau which has been the major origin of emigrants. Similarly, a paved road system (recently upgraded under a UNDP-financed project) running through Ouagadougou, Koupela, Po, and Tenkodogo, has two outlets into Ghana, one of them directly connecting Ouagadougou and Tema Port. 3.11 The outlets to the south are very important as they open landlocked Upper Volta to the port facilities in the coastal countries. But massive emigration may have been an unintended side effect of this opening up. The escalation in emigration to the Ivory Coast began, for instance, shortly after the Abidjan port facility was opened (in 1950). 1/ US Department of Commerce, American Embassy, Ouagadougou, "Foreign Economic Trends...", April 1975 which estimated urban unemployment rates as 60% and 80% for 1971 and 1973 respectively. These figures most probably include people employed in the informal sector (non- wage earners). -16 - Labor Policy in neighboring countries 3.12 The magnitude of emigration from Upper Volta to Ghana and the Ivory Coast was also a reflection of liberal labor policies in the latter countries. After the stoppage of forced labor in both the Ivory Coast and Upper Volta, the two governments reached an agreement whereby "if a worker so requests on signing his contract of employment, part of his wages, subject to a maximum of 1000 francs a month shall be paid by his employer at.monthly intervals into an account opened in his name with 2/ the savings bank of the Republic of Upper Volta." Potentially, then, there was thus a built-in incentive for individual Voltaics to emigrate to the Ivory Coast without official impedance, although it has been diffinult to make operational the latter part of the agreement. 3.13 With regard to Ghana, it was the official policy of the governrlent of Dr. Kwame Nkrumah to accomodate not just nationals of West African countries, but any emigrant of African stock and to confer automatic citizenship rights on them. It is little surprise then that until the promulgation of the Alien Law under Dr. K. Busia's government in 1969, and despite language difficulties, Ghana's foreign population was predominantly of Voltaic origin, 3.14 Recent economic developments in the Ivory Coast in particular are, however, likely to become long-run disincentives to emigration from Upper Volta. A 'rural exodus' has followed a period of high economic growth hinged upon urban-based manufacturing and service industries. Agriculture, I/ This agreement was reached on March 9, 1960 and was an attempt to insure equity in the exchange of labor and financial benefits between the two countries. Z/ .Ambroise Songre, op.cit. page 265. - 17 - in the Ivory Coast too, is becoming increasingly mechanized. As long as rural-urban migration (both internal and external) constituted no serious problem for government and urban managers in the Ivory Coast, the non-restrictive immigrant labor policy could continue. But with increasing urban unemploy- ment fed by rural-urban migrants, and deteriorating living conditions in urban areas, one expects an evolution of disincentives to rural-urban migration, which is bound to have a feedback on Upper Volta. Internal Migration 3.15 Internal migration as a mechanism for adjusting to regional disparities in economic opportunities has been observed for years in Upper Volta. But not all such migration (or even a majority of it) results in gainful employment and income increases for the migrants, otherwise there should not be such high 1/ unemployment levels as characterize the primary and secondary cities. 2/ 3.16 The re ,ut8 of the latest studies of internal migration- are not available yet, hence we have no idea of the magnitude of numbers involved. But the fact that an overwhelming majority migrate to the cities (primary and secondary) is clearly reflected in the pattern of population growth (see Appendix Tables 1 and 2). There is a significant difference between the total population growth rates and the growth rates of the cities(past and projected). Table 7: ESTIMATED POPULATION GROWTH RATES, PERCNT PER YEAR Total Resident Total Urban 1960-70 1.8 4.1 1970-74 2.0 4.2 1974-80 2.0 4.6 1970-80 2.0 4.4 Source: Appendix Table 1. 1/ See section on Manpower, Employment, and Income below. / The Voltaic Center for Scientific Research (CVRS) bas been conducting a research on internal migration to determine "...why people are migrating to the secondary cities," and their place of origin(AID Report, op.cit., page D-115). - 18 - It is also believed (but not yet indisputably substantiated) that the smaller cities are gaining more from-internal migration than the larger ones (i.e. Ouagadougou, Bobo-Dioulasso, and Koudougou). The evidence here is contradictory as noted in section II above. It is likely that . both the population estimates for 1970 reflected/an increase in the number of 'urban' places as well' as an - acceleratioh in the rate of growth of the secondary centers included in the 1960-61 estimates. Dut given the overall population growth pattern over the 1960-70 decade and the visible relative growth of the principal cities, it is highly improbable that the secondary centers grew faster than the principal cities. The December, 1975 census of the country should, hopefully, clarify the discrepancy. 3.17 Government is concerned about the direction of internal migration because it has bearing on the country's long-term population distribution and prospects for (agricultural) economic growth. There is need to increase the rate of migration from the central parts to the western and southwestern parts. Given the country's agriculture-oriented development strategy and the limited labor absorption capacity of the small urban sector, rural-rural migration from resource-poor to resource-rich areas needs to be promoted. Details of a long-term strategy for population redistribution in the context of the country's development objectives are contained in Bank Report No. 564a-TJV)1/. Given the determining relevance of population redistribution to the attainment of the country's economic goals, the need for appropriate 1/ See Bank Report No. 564a-UV, pp. 56-58 and Annex (attached) on "Estiates o.L' &aigration Requirements". Five models, using different assumptions, are used to project numbers of emigrants which will create optimum popu- lation densities on the Mossi plateau. - 19 - policy formulation and action becomes obvious. Before examining the pol icy aspects of migration, we briefly evaluate its effects on the country's economy. Migration and Its Effects on the Economy 3.18 Emigration from Upper Volta, particularly to the Ivory Coast, has generated political uneasiness for the government since the attainment of independence in 1960. This uneasiness is grounded on the belief that mass emigration could undermine the national economy unless a way could be found to tax the income of the emigrants to compensate for the loss in human resources. For individual emigrants, however, emigration is eco- nomically gratifying as it enhances chances of increased earnings from gainful employment. 3.19 There has been to date no satisfactory method of quantifying the flow of private fincancial resources from neighboring countries. Consequently, it is difficult to assess 'the net effect of emigration on the economy. For although it is known that emigrants remit money to their families in Upper Volta 't...so that they can pay their taxes and living expenses generally" (Ambroise Songre, 1973), the aggregate amounts involved can be assessed only if we have precise records of the magnitudes of such transfers.(If "Development prospects are to a large extent determined by exogenous faetors such as... the amount of resources available from abroad--principally migrants' remittances and foreign aid..." then effective policies and active programs must be instituted to utilize mass emigration to the country's advantage.) The External Trade and Payments records of the country for the period 1968-1973 show two broad categories of external transfers namely workers' -20- remittances from abroad, and foreign aid grants. The two categories, of about the same size, have increased by about 15 percent per year during 1968-72.1/ Emigrants remittances during the period were as follows: Table 8: Emigrants' Remittances % of Total % of Amount Private GDP (Current Prices) Year (billion CFAF) Transfers at Factor Costs 1968 2.6 50.98 3.47 1969 3.8 60.31 n.a. 1970 1.9 70.00 5.94 1971 5.6 63.63 6.51 1972 6.4 76.19 7.15 1973 6.8 n.a. n.a. Source: Tables 1 and 7, pages 2 and 19, Bank Report No. 564a-UV. There is, therefore, an observable increase in emigrants' gross contribution to national income although there are no estimates of the aggregate imputed cost to the country. 3,20 What, if any, does emigration cost Upper Volta? And what is the balance between the costs and benefits of emigration from the country? Social Overheads 3.21 One major part of the costs is the cumulative social overhead for individual emigrants summed over all emigrants. Such overheads include the cost of providing education, health, and special skills which each emigrant internalizes and transfers with him at the time of emigration. For Upper Volta, the vast majority of emigrants are illiterate or semi-literate; and, in fact, one purpose of emigrating has often been to acquire literacy and skills with a view to utilizing them in the country later (Skinner, 1974). Seen in this light, education and literacy overheads might be negative costs (i.e., benefits) for Upper Volta, the magnitude being determined by the 1/ Bank Report No..564a-UV, p. 18. - 21 - relative proportions of literate and skilled emigrants on the one hand and illiterate peasant emigrants on the other. 3.22 Health overheads could be similarly construed. If Voltaics, having benefited from health care and sanitation programs, emigrate without having made up for the costs through increased productivity and income taxes, then their emigration can be said to be costing the country. On the contrary, if, emigrants have not been beneficiaries of significant health and sanitation overheads their emigration cannot meaningfully be said to cost the country. Imputed Costs 3.23 The most important component of cost is the forgone benefit (imputed cost) which would accrue from the emigrants' productivity had they not migrated. This could be measured approximately by summing, over the emigrants' period of absence, their estimated annual income net of living expenses and taxes. In effect, the forgone benefit due to emigration is the aggregate saving of emigrants in their countires of residence. Hence, to measure the cost to Upper Volta of emigration from the country, one needs to know the average savings rate of the emigrants' in countries like the Ivory Coast and Ghana. 3.24 Other items of cost include price inflation generated by emigrants' transfers, and further emigration of working population due to demonstration effects generated by the free-spending behavior of temporary returnees. 3.25 However, all the forgone benefits enumerated above have to be weighed against certain forgone costs which the country would have to bear if the emigrants did not emigrate. First, it has been noted that emigration deflates potential unemployment in Upper Volta. The alternative to mass emigration might be mass unemployment, lower productivity on limited land - 22 - resources, and hence, lower average incomes per capita. Furthermore, there might be greater strain on government financial resources through mandatory social overheads. Specifically, mass emigration especially from the Mossi plateau can be regarded as the saving grace for low marginal agricultural productivity in the country. 3.26 On balance, it can be concluded that mass emigration from Upper Volta is a safety valve for mass unemployment and population pressure on marginally productive land. But for mass emigration the man/land ratio would be higher than it really is, and, with a peasant system of cultivation and pastoral nomadism, productivity and income per head would be lower still. For Upper Volta, mass emigration is better than a necessary evil; it is a blessing to the emigrants, the residents, and therefore, the country as a whole, since the.country has no welfare of its own distinct from that of the collectivity of its citizens. 3.27 The foregoing evaluation of the process of population movements should serve as inputs into policy directed at migration which is the subject of the section below. Directions for Policy 3.28 From the foregoing review of the process of migration, we can discern two broad directions for policy, namely: 1) Policy directed at mass emigration; and 2) Policy directed at internal migration. 3.29 Following independence in 1960, the governments of Upper Volta and the Ivory Coast agreed to "control" the flow of migrant workers between the two countries. There is no record of such agreement with Ghana. But despite this agreement, "The economic prosperity in the Tvori, Coa and the - 23 - high demand for laborers has slowly eroded this control over the past ten 1/ years Optimism about the effectiveness of any past or future control of population flows should be cautious as long as: 1) opportunity differentials exist between Upper Vc1ta and her neighbors, and the economic structure within Upper Volta remains siub-.optimal.; ) oltaics are exposed to information about such opportunities and are free to take advantage of them; and 3) there are no effective deterrent disincentives in the destination countries to continued emigration. 3.30 Any policy designed to control or in any way modify emigration will, therefore, have to be addressed to either one or a combination of the above three facts. The government, however, has first to convince itself that the potential benefits derivable from policy and its implementation outweigh the costs, since-each of the above facts has costs and benefits attached to it. Depending upon the government 's perception of the status and destiny of the country relative to neighboring countries, and its definition of goals and means of achieving them, a policy of active cooperation with neighboring countries in promoting regional economic integration might serve Upper Volta better than a "control" policy. 1/ AID Report on Upper Volta'and Niger, March 1975, pp. D-115 and D-116). 3.31 As long as relations between Upper Volta and her neighbors remain friendly and cooperative, it suffices for the government of Upper Volta to direct its planning efforts at "those who remain" via a regional development strategy. Such a strategy requires knowledge of the relative potentials of different parts of the country and allocation of development resources accord- ing to those potentials. The long-run effect will be a spatial redistri- bution of population within the country according to spatial investment allo- cation pattern. 3.32 Moreover, in a country where private annual income per capita is still so low (currently about US$70), government preoccupation with tax collection might well motivate people to move away from the country. It is, for example, questionable whether an emigrant to another country should continue to have to "...maintain any members of his family he has left behind, so that they can pay their taxes and living expenses generally.1 If people cannot even pay their living expenses, for them to have to pay tax becomes not only socially unjustifiable but also disfunctional to the economy. 3.33 Conversely, a spatially variable tax policy favoring the sparsely populated, agriculturally better-off areas within the country could stimulate internal migration towards the desired areas. But such a policy should not become effective until opportunities are created in the appropriate areas and efforts made to make potential migrants aware of them; otherwise, it may simply aggravate mass emigration from high-density areas. 3.34 The spatial allocation of public investments should reflect the intended pattern of population distribution, i.e. more efforts should be made to identify investment projects and locations within those ORDs with the highest economic and population potentials. In this regard, it may be -25 - useful to tailor projects to potential migrants' perceptions as revealed by the preferences of previous migrants both within and out of Upper Vot. The results of the CVRS study of internal migration, and of the ORSTOM study of external migration should hopefully provide valuable inputs to policy formulation and projects' design. -26 - PART II ] STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY: SPATIAL AND SECTORAL The Spatial Structure 4.01 The spatial structure of the economy denotes the spatial distri- bution of areas and centers of economic activities and the way in which those activities are interrelated in space. The structure may be more or less efficient depending upon the rationality underlying the relative distributions of, and interrelationships between, centers and areas of activity. 4.02 Principal components of the spatial structure include the transport ad central place networks, both of which are still at comparatively low levels of development in Upper Volta. What follows is an analysis of both components and an evaluation of their role in the country's development. Central Places in Upper Volta 4.03 The central place system- in Upper Volta consists of three distinct elements, namely: the National Administrative and Commercial Headquarters (Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso), the secondary centers (ORD and SQrcle headquarters), and several agro-settlements of varying sizes. As the previous sections showed it is a very open system indeed. Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso, the two main centers, lie about 450 kilometers apart on the country's only railway line which runs into the Ivory Coast. All the other major centers are also directly linked by road or rail, to neighboring countries. 2 This openness coupled with the country's political-economic history has contributed significantly to mass emigration. 1/ The term "central place" will be used to denote what is otherwise termed "urban,place" because, in Upper Volta, except Bobo-Dioulasso and, to a lesser extent Ouagadougou, most "urban places" are "urban" rather more in the sense that they are relatively dense agglomerations of people and houses than that they are non-agricultural. The bulk of their populations are still engaged in farming or related activities for a living. But they are central places, regardless of the nature of their economic base. 2/ '3etween 1932 and 1947 Upper Volta was administered as part of other French West African territories. During that period and ever since, the country's economy has been peripheral to those of Ivory Coast and Ghana. - 27 - 4.04 The combined population of the 52 central places is currently estimated at about 725,000 of which 285,000 are regarded as "Population Urbaine Stricte", i.e., non-agriculturz. This breakdown 6f the population of central places implies that only about 39.32 percent of their population is "strictly urban". The "urbain stricte" population also represents 5.41 percent of total "population presente" in 197, whereas the total central places population is about 13.78 percent. These statistics support various reports about the miniscule size of the urban population and the dominance of agriculture even in the central places. -4.o5 The proportion of the three principal cities in total "urban" population increased from 35.4 percent in 1960 to 39.83 percent in 19?0,11 apparently at the expense of the secondary centers.' But compared to the Ivory Coast, this degree of primacy is yet modest. Abidjan alone had 41.1% -of the Ivory Coast's urban population in 1970, for example. 4.06 The steady increase in the relative importance of the major cities. is expected to continue into the foreseeable future. 4.07 Using the Plan estimates, the average size of central places in 1971 were as follows: Table 9: Average Population of Central Places Total Population- Number of of Central Places Central Places Average Size Group I 248,000 3 83,000 Group II 136,000 12 11,000 Group III 231,000 37 6,000 Total 615,000 52 12,000 1/ These figures are subject to the degree of accuracy inherent in the Development Plan statistics. 2/ Ivory Coast: A Basic Economic Report. Annex 6: The Urban Sector 1975 page 4. Prepared by Michael Cohen. -28- As was noted earlier, the populations of even the highest-order central places are predominantly agricultural. About 61 percent of the population of Ouagadougou, Bobo-Dioulasso, and Koudougou were, in 1975, considered "non-urbaiio stricte" i.e. basically engaged in agriculture. For practical purposes then, the remaining central places could be considered agro-towns, and consequently with near-zeio potential for attracting non-agricultural labor. With such high proportions of agricultural population in the central places, it is not hard to see why they could not have been growing much faster than the whole country's population. It could be expected that any economically motivated migration would be directed either outside the country or towards the more "strictly urban", higher-order central places, or areas of expanding agriculture. 4.08 The average sizes of the central places have implications for economies of scale in development planning. The economic rationale underlying the provision of economic and social infrastructures is grounded on l6ng-term returns to scale, given limited resources. The potential for agglomeration economies, given the sizes and spatial distribution of the central places, is limited; which in turn weakens the case for location- specific urban investments outside the three major cities. The Role of Central Places in Upper Volta's Development 4.09 Increasing urbanization (in terms of increasing size of the non- agricultural population and of non-agricultural employment) should be beneficial to the Upper Volta economy. It promises to increase the degree of non-agricultural specialization in secondary and tertiary occupations (inherent in large agglomerations of people), the productivity of labor and, by implication, average incomes. All these should influence gross domestic product upwards and reduce emigration from the country. -29- 4.,10 But Upper Volta is yet a long way from an urban-led economic growth. Development policies have to be rural-oriented as long as the population remains basically rural and the resource base agricultural. However, since central places as market centers, traditional centers of authority, or simply transport nodes need not be urban centers per se, a good case can be made for locating the most promising ones with a view to strengthening them in their region,al. and national development roles. With such central places identified, appropriate development investment efforts (domestic and external) can be focused on them so as to maximize functional/sectoral linkages in space and the accessibility of people to facilities. The following section is a brief appraisal of the modern sector as proxy for central places vis-a-vis their potential as presont qnd futurn "growth injection centers".1/ 4.11 In looking at the central places, we are interested in establishing the extent to which they have contributed to the economic development of Upper Volta in the past, their present contribution, and their potential for future contributions. Past Trends 4.12 There is not much specific information on the central places as a group, although a fairly comprehensive survey of Ouagadougou has been conducted by Skinner,2/ This section therefore draws heavily on Skinner's work, and Ouagadougou is used to picture the role of the cities. 1/ D.R.F. Taylor in Michael G. Fry, ed., Freedom and Change, 1975, page 233). / E.P. Skinner, African Urban Life The Transformation of Ouagadougou, Princeton University Press, -pric n New Jersy, 1974 - 30 - The City of Ouagadougou 4.13 Ouagadougou was founded in the 12th Century by the Mossi, and its early survival and prosperity were linked to the trans-Saharan caravan trade. Pre-colonial Ouagadougou was reported to have been "...a whole complex of villages scattered over 12 square kilometers and linked by footpaths to...the market place." The entire complex was inhabited by an estimated 5,000 people. Describing the economic base of the city, Crozat, an early French visitor to the city, was quoted as saying, "The capitol, like the smallest Mossi hamlet, is only an agricultural village, and, were it not for the deforestation of the area, nothing would reveal to the traveler that here is the great center and the residence of a sovereign". 4.14 From historical times, then, it had been a political as well as commercial center, central to the whole Sudan Zone. While its trade and political functions in the area enhanced the city's population growth and relative economic welfare, the fact that it was merely a distribution and transit trade camp did little to transform the economic base of the area. The table below shows the population growth of the city (table modified from Skinner, Table I). 4.15 The turning point in the city's history was reached in 1896 after the traditional authority was defeated by force and supplanted by French authority. The growing European influence on the city as well as the whole country is reflected in the population comprsition. From 0.06 percent in 1914, the proportion of Europeans increased to about 2.27 percent in 1961-62. Administrative, political, commercial, as well as religious proselytization processes contingent upon French colonization of the city and the country combined to 1/ Quoted in Skinner, Ibid., page 20. 13 - 31 - transform the functional economic base of the city, its demographic structure, physical structure, and nature of linkages with its hinterlands. The city became a collection and distribution center for imports from, and exports to, Europe. It also became a center for recruitment of African soldiers in the Fr'ency Army during both the First and Second World Wars. Most Voltaic war veterans later settled in Ouagadougou "to seek jobs as policemen or as Zardes de cerles, for which they had priority" (Skinner, page 28). 'Many others obtained farm land in the fringes of the city, thus establishing a tradition of "urban agricultural practice". Table 10 POPULATION GROWTH OF OUAGADOUGOU, 1914 - 1961-62 %of % of Year Total Africans Total Europeans Total 1914 19,344 19,332 99.9 12 U.1 1919 19,075 19,000 99.6 75 0.4 1926 12,238 12,015 99.2 223 0.8 1931 10,768 10,000 97.5 268 2 1936 14,200 14,050 98.9 150 11 1945 17,800 17,639 99.1 161 0.9 1946 17,120 17,000 99.3 120 0.7 1948 19,700 19,360 98.3 340 1.7 1951 37,678 37300 99.0 378 1.0 1956-6o 51,500 50,000 97.1 1,500 2.9 1961-62 59,126 57,779 97.7 1,347 2.3 Source: "Recensement Demographique de la 'Ville de Ouagadougou" (Resultats Provisoires), Rep. de Haute-Volta, Ministere de l'Economie Nationale, Direction de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, Ouagadougou, Haute-Volta (June 1962), p. 9. 4.16' Prior to 1919 when Upper Volta was constituted into a separate colonial territory the .ountry had been admiftistered along with Senegal and Niger. Upon the.creation of the country, Ouagadougou was designated as the capital. Subsequent administration of the city and country under Lt. Governor M. Edourd Hesling led to changes in Ouagadougou's spatial structure. New developments east of the old city began--the new colony's admin- istrative center, and government residential quarters were built and connected to the rest of the city by a bridge. Both the new and the old parts of the city were laid out on a radial street pattern focused on the commercial center. 4.17 Apart from physical plans for the city, Governor Hesling also had economic plans. The geographical centrality of Ouagadougou to the rest of Upper Volta and other cities in neighboring countries was capitalized upon to promote economic growth through commerce. The city was made a collection center for commercial cotton production, and "many thousands of peasants were sent to the town carrying bales of cotton which they had cultivated in a common field under the authority of the village chief, and for a salary which was theoretically to be distributed among them afterwards. Of course, many peasants were not paid, but all had the opportunity to see urban life for the first time, and some remained in Ouagadougou" (Skinner, page 31). 4.18 We see here the beginning of cash income-generating linkages between the city and its hinterland, as well as the gen of future rural-urban migration in the country. 4.19 Colonial economic and commercial policy, however, was partially counterproductive. Forced labor as a means of generating exports did not go down well with the Voltaics as "...thousands of Mossi and other Voltaics fled Ouagadougou and the labor recruiters in the countryside and migrated -33- to the Gold Coast", not to other French territories because they also had forced labor. The flight from Ouagadougou and the countryside was, therefore, the result of overtaxing of labor and the beginning of mass emigration from the country. Mass emigration seen in this perspective, could not have been economically motivated. The motivation seems to have been the desire to avoid forced labor regardless of its income benefits. During the 1920s, therefore, the role of Ouagadougou as a "forced labor center" had negative linkages with its hinterland and, in combination with the Great Depression of the 1930s, led to the city's relative decline. The bankruptcy of the Upper Volta economy led the French Government to dissolve the country as an entity in 1932 and merge parts of it with Mali, the Ivory Coast,and Niger. 4.20 What used to be Upper Volta now became a reservoir of cheap, forced labor supply to the plantation owners in the Ivory Coast. The demographic effect of these economic reverses on the cities was felt most in Ouagadougou. The city lost its position not only as national administrative capital, but also as the most populous city. It trailed behind Koudougou and Bobo-Dioulasso, both of which were better located in relation to agricultural resources. Comparative population figures for the three cities are presented below (Skinner, page 33, Table II). As Skinner noted, however, Bobo-Dioulasso and Koudougou grew partially owing to the presence of forced laborers in them and partially from the voluntary migration of many people from Ouagadougou, again it ...in an effort to obtain work in order to pay taxes", rather than as a result of any positive symbiotic relationship between them and their hinterlands. -314 - Table 11 OMPARATIVE URBANIZATION IN UPPER VOLTA, 1914-1962 Year Ouagadougou Bobo-Dioulasso Koudougou 1914 19,344 ,000 2,000 1926 12,238 6,749 11l,25 1931 10,768 11,060. 9,379 1936 14,200 10,250 15,920 194!5 17,800 28,785 19,027 1953 32,077 43,400 8,700 1962 59,126 45,000 8,000 Source: IlRecensement Demographique de la Ville de Ouagadougou" (Resultat8 Proviscires), Rep. de Haute-Volta, Ministere de IEconomie Nationale, Direction de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, Ouagadougou, Haute-Volta (June 1962), p. 9. 4.21 There was a temporary surge in the city's population just prior to the Second World War and during the war due to in-migration by colonial army recruits, many of whom never got mobilized before the war ended. But soon after the war and the recreation of the territory into a separste country (in 1947) once again, Ouagadougou was re-designated capital. The city got revitalized as Rrench and African civil servants re-assembled to start a new, "free labor" economy. Apart from civil servants, "other persons drifted into town eager to seek low-level employment with the government or with private enterprises" (Skinner, page 35). Thus began the third phase in the development of modern Ouagadougou, marked by economically motivated migration from the countryside and the establishment. of a new administration. 4.22 It can be hypothesized, therefore, that there has been continuity in the economic base of the city--dominance of the tertiary and secondary services (63.-5%) co-existing with the agricultural sector. The city's linkages with its hinterland are indexed by three things, namely, the occupational structure, the ethnic composition, and the birthplaces of residents of the city. The following set of tables illustrates the linkages. Table 1' OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE OF OUAGADOUGOU, 1962 CENSUS Occupations Number Occupations Number Cultivators 4,655 Dolotieres (Millet beer Civil servants makers and sellers) 124 and clerks 2,154 Butchers 160 Domestic servants 845 Jewelers 76 Laborers 816 Ironsmiths and solderers 69 Merchants 751 Electricians 53 Soldiers 709 Barbers 52 Chauffeurs 671 Painters 51 Masons 407 Bakers 50 Tailors 312 Shoemakers 44 Carpenters 30 Weavers 26 Mechanics 290 Kola sellers 24 Missionaries and Plumbers 18 Moslem teachers 149 Watch repairers 13 TOTAL 12,774 Source: "Recensement Demographique de la Ville de Ouagadougou", (Resultats Provisoire8), Rep. de Haute-Volta, Ministere de 1'Economie Nationale, Direction de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, Ouagadougou, Haute-Volta (JunE 1962), p. 14. - 36 - Table 13 ETHNIC COMPOSITION OF OUAGADOUGOU (1962 Census) Grovp NunIh Percenta; Mossi 44,201 74.8 Fuln I:tä(PC ulb1) 2,254 3 8 Bous,uLsjé 1,917 3,3 Gourounsi 1,819 3.1 Europeans 1,347 2.3 Bobo Sam 1,267 2.1 Samiogho 724 1.2 Gourmantche 489 .8 Others (including non-Voltaic African<) 5 078 8.6 To-rAL 5',1212,0 SouRU: "Recensement D):ograpik d Vilk OCuagadougou" (Resultats Provi,oires], Rép, de H1aute-Volta. Ministåre de I'Économie Nationale, Direction de la Statis- tique et des Études Économiques. Ouagadougoi, Hate- Volta (J une 1962), p. 13. Table 14 BIRTHPLACES OF OUAGADOUGOU RESIDENTS (1962 Census) Place of' _rh Aurnber Planf r . (Bth N h Ouagadougou 33,877 Fada N'Gourma 395 Koudougou 1,688 Dori 376 Kombissiri 1,557 Boulsa 335 Bobo-Dioulasso 1,307 Dédougou 309 Zinari 1,218 Ouahigiouya 1,216 / orgin AfrIcan A rea' Manga 1,112 Iyali 1,134 Tenkodogo 1,105 Ivory Coast 573 Kava 1,051 Ngr - 569 Zorgho 825 Nigeria 451 Saponé 820 Senegal 321 Boussé 651 Le.huiey 318 Koupé)a 624 Ghana 254 Léo 589 Mauritania 91 Tougan 557 Guinea 68 Yako 496 Congo 24 SoLRci: "Recensement Démographique de la Ville de Ouagudou- gnu" [Rcsultals Provisoires], Rép. de Haute-Volta, Ministère d l'con- omic Nationale, Direction de la Statistique et des tudes Écuioniiques, Ouagadougou, laute-Volta (June 1962), p. 13. - 37 - Occupational Structure 4.23 The first of these tables indicates that by 1962, the gainfully employed labor force was 36.h4 percent agricultural and 63.55 percent secondary and tertiary service. Government and other clerical services constituted 16.86 percent of the gainfully employed labor force. It should be noted, in discussing the city's linkage with its hinterland, that only two categories of workers, namely beer makers and sellers and butchers, could be construed as being functionally (backward) linked with the country's agri- cultural sector in terms of inputs to the "industrial process" (i.e. millet and cattDe). Most other categories (except commerce and government) are local interactive horizontal linkages associated wiLh iopulation azzlomeration. 4.24 If the city were a perfe cL economic enclave within the country, or the relationship between the two perfectly dual, there should be a wide difference in their respective occupational structures. The degree of' diver- gence can be estimated by comparing the ratios of agricultural employment to total employment in the city and the country as a whole.1/ This index. was about 0.02 in 1962 for Ouagadougou, indicating a rather low level of funo- tional economic linkage with the rest of the country. This index and the 1/ The index of linkage is measured as i =Pi PC Subject to o,i (1 where Pi = proportion of active population engaged in agri- culture-based activities in Ouagadougou. Pc = proportion of active population engaged in agri- culture in the country as a whole. - 38 - occupational structure of the city underscore the fact that Ouagadougou is. mainly a service center within a dual economy. It may, therefore, be more of a parasitic than a generative city (Hoselitz, B.F., 1954/5). 4.25 The implication of this picture of functional economic linkage for the country's development cannot be fully understood until the total picture of the structure of the country's economy is unraveled. Maybe the growth function of Ouagadougou consists in services to other better linked "growth centers" and the totality of the country's population. As the section on the sectoral structure of the economy will show, however, it is doubtful whether the overall picture of center-periphery linkages is any better than that between Ouagadougou and the rest of the country. Central Places and the Modern Sector in Upper Volta's Economy 4.26 In the context of a country dominated by peasant agriculture and livestock rearing, and whose national economy is itself oriented towards a hierarchy of external influences, only three broad categories of central places could be identified. These categories roughly correspond to the three groups of urban places recognized in the 1972-76 Development Plan (Annex Documents, page 67, and page 22 above). The average population sizes of these central places in 1971 were 6,000, 11,000 and 83,000 respectively, with combined population estimated at 615,000. to a lesser extent, 4.27 Other than for Ouagadougou and/Bobo-Dioulasso, information on the evolution of central places in Upper Volta is virtually non-existent. But given the economic structure and political history of the country and the Sahel region as a whole, it can be inferred that the bulk of the groups II and III central places and their spatial distribution reflect gradual population growth.and agglomeration as conditioned by available agricultural resources and colonial transport network. - 39 - 4.28 The central places in Upper Volta can be described more meaningfully as elements in a political administrative system than as elements in a coherent economic system. For, as Francois Perroux would have said, the national political space of Upper Volta does not coincide with its national macro-economic space. It was noted in the opening part of this paper that the economy of Upper Volta is peripheral to those of neighboring countries as well as France. The export base of the economy is almost completely agricultural (if we disregard labor as an export commodity). Recent and Future Roles of Central Places in the Development of Upper Volta 4.29 In the absence of specific documentation of the role of central places in Upper Volba, their role can be construed in terms of the modern sector. Chapters 2 and 3 of the 1972-76 Development Plan contain elements of the modern sector and the Economic Infrastructure both of which have strong urban biases. 4JO The role of central places in the development process can be assessed in terms of their relative contribution to the attainment of national development goals vis-a-vis the proportion of development resources invested in them. Upper Volta's overriding national goal has been stated as "the augumentation of the standard of living of the masses 1 and the growth of resources of the state." If we could assess the proportions of increase in income per capita and of GDP attributable to the modern sector, or, better still, central places as a whole, relative to the proportion of resources invested in them, we would have an idea not only of their contribution to, but also of their relative efficiency in enhancing, the attainment of the national goal. 1/ Ambroise Songre, translating from Republic de Haute Volta, Plan Cadre 1967-1970, Vol. I, Page 8. Ito - The 'Urban Sector' and Recent Developments in the Upper Volta Economy Relevant Population Statistics 4.31 Projected official population estimates cont:ained in the statistical annex to the 1972-76 Development Plan anticipate a steady relative increase in the proportion of urban residents in total resident pop- ulation. In contrast a steady reduction in the proportion of 'urban cultivators'is anticipated(as revealed by increasing proportion of 1' population urbaine stricte). The projected trends imply expected increases both in strictly urban employment and overall urban population, and an implicit growth rate of 4.4% per year (1970-1960) in the population of the 52 villes classified as urban. These projections also reveal some- thing about the Development Planners' perception of the role of the central places in the country's development process -- an increasing capacity to absorb non-agricultural labor. By 1980, agriculture, which provided employment for 96.88% of the active population in 1960, is expected to provide employment for 94.11%, a not-too-significant decline in agricultural employment. The anticipated 2.77% decline in agricultural employment will, by implication have to be absorbed by the non- agricultural sector. In absolute numbers, between 1975 and 1980, 45,000 new jobs will have to be created to absorb the expected additional non- agricultural labor force. These new jobs will. be distributed somehow among the central places. 1/ See Documents Annexes, op.cit. pages 64 and 67; see also attached graphs. -41 4.32 The 1972-76 Plan anticipates that the 52 central places wilJ, within the five-year span grow by about 185,000. Since the non-agricultural *population is expected to grow by only 80,000 during that period, it is implied that 105,000 residents of those central places will still belong in the agricultural sector. Of the 80,000 increase in non-agricultural urban. population, 165,000 or 56.25% are expected to be employed. Apparently here there are grounds to believe that either the population increase is grossly underestimated or the increase in non-agricultural employment grossly over- estimated. If the employment projertion is dependable, then the overall population projection should be higher, considering that unemployment rate is increasing and that the country's population pyramid is still youthful. 4.33 However, regardless of the consistency and/or realism of the pro- jections, it is essential to evaluate the relative potential capacities of the sectors and alternative areas to absorb productive labor and thus enhance the achievement of increased national product. Sectoral Structure of the Economy 4.34 Upper Volta is a dual economy par excellence--with a wage employment sector accounting for about only 1 percent of total employment, over 95 percent of the population directly supported by peasant agriculture, and with about 60 percent of the population of the country's capital classified as agricultural. Agriculture 4.35 Agriculture is the economic base of the country. It privide a living for over 90 percent of the population and accounts for about 3P percent of GDP and 45 percent of total export earnings. Onlhy about 2.2 mil-ion hec- tares (8 percent) of total area has been devoted to cultivation; 80 percent of output consists of grains. -42 - 4.36 Two problems have bedeviled the sector, namely low productivity and periodic drought which recently was so prolonged that it resulted in sub- stantial declines in output of grains and stock of herds. Low productivity has been due basically to overpopulatdon in the central parts, inefficient methods of cultivation, poor soils and low precipitation, and widespread river blindness in river valleys in the southwestern and.western parts of the country. 4.37 Regional differences in productivity and prices, especially follow- ing the drought, are believed to be inducing emigration from the Mossi plateau to the southwestern and western parts where rainfall and soil conditions are better. 4.38 Only about 15 percent of food crops are marketed and none exported. Cotton is the most important cash crop and a major item of export, accounting for about 20 percent of total exports. Production of cotton has also been severely affected by the drought: a 25 percent decline (of seed cotton) from 36,000 tons in 1969/70 to 27,000 tons in 1973/7)4. The FAO-IDA projects in the western araas helped cushion the effect of bhe drought, and productivity has been increasing despiLe decreasing or constant acreage. 4.39 Livestock is the country's principal export item. Although it engages about 6 percent of the labor force, it contributes about 11 percent of GDP and between 30 percent and 50 percent of export, earnings. The sector has also been badly hit by the drought as reflected in its declining 3hare of GDP from 11.0 percent in 1969 to 10.1 percent in 1972. Apart from bbe drought, the sector is plagued by marketing difficulties with Ghana and the Ivory Coast, inadequate management and organization, inadequate veterinary care4 and increasing compebItion with crop culbivation. It is also only recently that the government started making near-adequate investment aalo- -43- cations to the sector, and the allocations are still below requirements in this otherwise productive sector. Manufacturing 4.40 The manufacturing seator is small and highly concentrated in Bobo ard Ouagadougou,which implies that the fl6ws of domestic raw material inputs are focussed on the two principal cities. Since the economy is so predom- inantly subsistence, spatial economic interactions between the central places and the degree of specialization in each of them is minimal. 4.41 In effect, the size of the central places and-their economic structure, and the structure and nature of the national economy in relation to "the rest of the world" are such that economic linkage relations among them are virtually non-existent, although they are all connected to the two principal cities in a "core-periphery" relationship just as the whole country is to "the rest of the world1. 4.42 By and large, the modern sectors have been more productive 2/ than traditional sectors. Industrial production, for example, which accounted for 15% of GDP in 1968 increased to 17% in 1970; the annual growth rate was about 12% per year during the period. The pace of growth has been maintained as the figures in annex tables _1 and 4 indicate. There are indications of backward linkage of certain industries to the agricultural sector. Among such industries are the textile, oil and fats and, to a lesser degree, beverage and food products. Annual growth rate in the whole secondary sector was 6.0% during 196)t/68, 15.2% dul,ing 1968/70. 1/ Wage earnern represented only s3ightly above 1 percent of total labor force in 1971 but contributed about 11 percent of GDP for that year. - 414 - 4.43 Transport, commerce, and services dominate the tertiary sector, although a virile insurance business has been emerging since, the late 1960s. Growth rate withih the sector ranged between 4.0% (Commrce) and 16.5% (Insurance) per year during the 1968-70 period. Overall growth rate for the sector was about 7.6% per year. 4.hh Value added in the modern sector grew at 4.3% and 10.4% per year respectively during 1964/68 and 1968/70 compared to 2.14% and 1.6% for the traditional sector. 4.45 It can therefore be concluded that the modern sector has been more productive than the traditional sector. To the extent that the modern sector is inextricably bound to central places, central places in Upper Volta have been more productive than their hinterlands. 4.46 In particular, the principal cities, namely Ouagadougou, Bobo-Dioulasso, Koudougou, Ouahigouya, Banfora, Kaya, Dori, and Dedougou wi.th a concentration of service institutions and economic infrastructure in them, have been relatively better equipped to promote national economic growth. 4.47 The nagging question, however, is whether the comparative advantage that the certral places have in modern facilities and in productivity are in fact simply internalized in the localities or whether there are significant, functional economic linkages between the localities and their hinterlands such as can indeed enhance "the augmentation of the standard of living of the masses and the growth of resources of the state." While there can be no doubt that higher levels of production in cities lead to higher levels of national product, the standard of living r 'the massec is not nec--sarily invariably am-%7rnted: not unless there are eff-ient, mechanisms to link the cities in equitable exchange relations with the rural sector. r'JonsiJr1ing the rather tiny 1~ size of the modern sector in Upper Volta, the potential of the modern sector as at present, to significantly influence aggregate national product and its equitable distribution is extremely limited. 4.48 Central places as service, trade, distribution, and production centers in Upper Volta should, therefore, be evaluated with their modest sizes and roles in mind, their relative productivity notwithstanding. Manpower, Emplo;mentj and Income 4.9 Upper Volta's labor force was estimated in the First Development Plan at 2.792 million in 1969, and 2.905 million in 1971 when it constituted about 53 percent of total population. United Nations estimates put the active population in 1971 at 2.565 million, of which 2.458 million (95.8 percent) were rural inhabitants. 2/ 4.50 The US Bureau of International Commerce had the following estimates of labor force and employment statistics: 1/ Only about 1.1% of active population in 1970 were engaged in salaried jobs, nearly 1/2 of them in Ouagadougou(14018 out of 32,031) and about 1/5 in Bobo-Diolasso(6,281 out of 32,031). 2/ Foreign Economics Trends, US Department of Commerce (American anbassy, Ouagadougou),April 1974, April 1975. Total Total Number of Urban Unemploy- Gost of' Emng .Lndex Labor Force21/ Salaried Workers ment Rate Per Capita GDP Africaan European (in millions) (in thousands) (in percent) (970' prices) (1958=100) (1964=100) 1970 2.8 32 60 US$61 159.9 119.? 1971 N/A N/A 60 US$60 171.9 123.8 1972 2.6 34 70 US$60 153.0 125.8 1973 2.7 N/A 80 us$6o 179.1 133.1 Percent change 1971-72 N/A N/A +16.7 0 -11.0 +1.6 Percent change 1972-73 +3.8 N/A +14.3 0 +17.1 +5.8 1/ Persons 14-60 years of age. In the absence of a clear definition of "urban unemployment", the above table should be interpreted with caution. It sounds inconeivable that the urban sector can be as comparatively productive as it is, while at the same time featuring such high unemployment rates. The data probably included only wage earners and others in the modern sector while ignoring agricultural employment which still occupies a sizeable part of Upper Volta's urban popu- lation. The occupational structure of Ouagadougou, for instance, was 36.41[ percent "cultivators" in 1962. 46.51 Wage employment is highly concentrated in the tertiary sector, especially in government service and, by implication in The three major urban centers. According to estinates in the 1972-76 development plan, about 50 percent of wage earners were in government service in 1971. Wage earners who in 1971 were about 1 percent of total labor force, accounted for 11 per- cent of total value added, an indication partly of their relatively higher productivity and partly of their ability to force wages up through labor unions.1/ 46.2 Intersectoral wage differentials are reported to be small. 2/ The minimum official wage rates per hour as at March 1974 were CFAF 39 and CFAF 47 respectively for agricultural and non-agricultural workers. These rates, however, becloud the fact that a majority of workers, even in the urban areas are non-wage earners and, therefore, cannot be meaningfully affected by the official rates. Average returns to family labor, for instance, range between CFAF 100 and CFAF 120 a day, or about CFAF 1" per hour. 1/ Wages were increased three times by a total of 70 percent between 1969 and 1974, mainly in response to rising prices. 2/ Bank Report No. 564a-TJV, Page 38. - 48 - 4.53, Tn the absence of comprehensive timeseries data on employment, income, and productivity levels, all that can be hypothesized are (i) that productivity levels are generally low, but comparatively lower in the tra- ditional sector; (ii) that.wage employment is still. an insignificant pro- portion of total employment; and (iii) that intersectoral wage differentials are insignificant. The Institutional Framework and Central Places .4.55 In considering the role of central places, the institutional structure within which they function is relevant. There are a number of small settlements besides the principal ones, which have become administrative and service centers since the creation of certain development institutions, the most important of which are the ORDs. There are eleven ORDs covering the whole country, each of them financed by one agency or another. Eight of them are financed by external, sources, and three by the Government of Upper Volta. The multiplicity and diversity of financing and executing agencies has been held partly responsible for the inability of the ORD 'system' to function efficiently in achieving its objectivps. It was observed in Report No. 297a-UV that the impact of the ORD system has been "patchy" owing to "lack of a national agricultural and rural development policy," and that "the line taken by any ORD reflects the initiative and bias of the external agency, which in most cases managed the ORD under external aid programs." All this boils down to a problem of lack of coordination in the ORD 3system 1/ Organismes Regionaux de Development,(11 of them), the first of which was established in 1965, as independent, self-accounting regional development units charged with the planning and executlon of rural development in Upper Volta. Also see Annex 4 oC Pank Report No. 297a-UV, May 10, 1974 for a detai.lod description of the functions of the ORDs. - 49 - which, conceptually, is quite adequate as a development planning and execution device. A series ol" steps are reportedJ to have been taken by the Governmentto ensure that the ORD system is better coardinated and goals better articulated. 4.55 'In the context of this paper, however, what is most relevant about the ORDs is The opportunity they provide for the organized development of rationally selected central places with pre-conceived functional linkages with their hinterlands, other ORDs, and the principal cities through a hierarchical ordering of functions. As a major part of tha functions of an ORD is to organize production and marketing of commodities (mainly for export), the locations of central places becomes crucial as distri- bution points for agricultural inputs, collecting points for outputs for marketing, and as local cocordination cenb er3 responsible for conducLing information flows between the rural hinterland and the rest of the country. In essence, the ORD system provides a basis for the development of a rural market-center system, and the efficiency of that potential. system will be determined partly by the location of individual central * places relative to one another and to the population they serve, and partly by the extent to which the various agents of development succeed in motivating increased production and marketing of commodities. Locating Development Centers in Upper Volta 4.56 If national productivity and individual welfare levels as goals of social and economic development are to be realized in Upper Volta, citizens should have adequate access to the goods and services essential to the goals. It has been noted that the degree of efficiency possessed by the spatial economic system i s a functi on o f the rationali 1y underlying the spatial distribution. of economic activities relative to elements of economic infrastructure , and of the behavioral approach of' the agents of change. The essence of rationality in locating "growth injection centers" and allocating scarce economic and human resources to them is to maximize intended impacts. To maximize intended impacts of infrastructure investments is to maximioe the accessibility of target populations t.o the infrastructure provided. 4.57 The existing distributions of economic resources, institutional facilities, population, and central places, and of the transportati6n network provide a basic for evaluating the relative potential accessibility of places for the purpose of locating investments. Fo-r' Upper Volta, however, existing population distribution relative to economic resource distribution is a key long-term problem of development planning. Population needs "o be redistributed from the central and southern areas to the western and southwestern parts where major agricultural resources are concentrated. 4.58 The Banks earliest involvement in agricultural development in the country have accordingly been focussed on the ORDs with the highest agricultural potential namely, Bobo-Dioulasso, Dedougou, Banfora, Yatenga, and Dedougou. There has lately been a shift in emphasis toward the five ORDs of the Mossi plateau, most of which straddle the Volta river 1/ Prod7.uction of cotton(tie main export commodity) is cocontrated in 5edougou and Bobo-Dioulasso ORDs; and livestock raisibg, although traditionally associated with the northern and eastern parts of the country, has been drifting to the better watered grazing lands of Yatenga, Dedougou and Bobo-Dioulasso ORDs. These three ORDs are among the least densely populated parts of Upper Volta. 2/ See page 12 of I.B.R.D. Report, per Volta, Second Rural Development Fund Project. Prepared by A.J.H. Otten, Regional Mission in West Africa, Abidjan, June 25, 197. Va4ll eys . Thea valley i n 1known to hold high poten+,.al Fo- futurc, agriculturaJ development onoe they are rid of onchocerciasis and bilharzia which presently, render them hazardous for settlement. 4.9 Besides the Bank, various other external agn-ioes(see annex table 6) are committed to development projects in the ORDs, notably UNDP, European Development Fund(FED), the French Goverrnment(FAC), and the United States Government (AID) through various managoment agenci.'- 4.60 One major cLrieension of the location and deve10lpment of 'growth injection centers' is the rural transport network. This 'dimension is receiving the Bank's attention through a series of projects covering the Mossi plateau and the western and southwestern parts of the country. 4.61 On its part, the USAID has been urged to emphasse "...the micro-basin level, particularly basi-fond. and small dam design, location, and maintenance" because 'USAID's emphasis on the rural farmers and his direct needs necessitates our concern with micro-basin studies and development. 4.62 The areas covered by the various development projects and the distribution of population constitute the spatial domain of centers to be located for infrastructure and institutional service develo-pment. A rigorous approach to determining optimal locations for concentration of central data on facilities requires fairly precise and comprehensive/population, institutional services, and resource inventory and their spatial distribution. Available data are scanty and scattered, and it may require gross approximations to collate and analyse them. For this reason, only the most conspicuoul- 1/ AID Report, op.citb page D-90. 5 2 - (in terms of the above reqnirements) locations can presently be ftdentifiod. .A hierarchy of such locations is suggested below. Priority Areas'for Central Place Development 4.63 Priority areas for central place development in Upper Volta are defined jointly by existing spatial distributions of population, economic infrastructure (software, hardware), climaic regiros, and cigoing as well as pl.annd developmenL yroQevtw. A rathr,- weakly dCdinrd hie'araby r central places aLSO xiOsti, with Ouagadougou and Bot>-Dioulise at the to!, C' Th M hraroby "nd - series of sm;A 4yro-h'on down Qi! hierarchy, Regional "Growth Injection " centers 4.64 Given limited resources (human, and capital) only a few places can be deve3oped for effective impact on regional development. In this regard, the ORD system may have to be restructured vich that larger areas can be functional3y linked to common centers (i.e. for extension, medical, retail, and other services). The economics of central place systems, anyway, ensures that there is a mininum threshold oF population and income which guarantees the survival of a given contral place. With an estimated 1975 resident population of 5.73 millf -, ind an urban population of 725 thousand of which Ouagadougou, Bobo, and Koudougou rhare h2.789,Upper Voltats populaton bas cannot support ton mniwy maor can re. Bes:6. with an income per capita of about US$.70b, thrsh1 ag recate incomes guaranteeing virile central places must cover extonsive arvas, 1.65 With the above objective conditions in mind, ani with an eye on,future demands for cenbral place function. s, a thr:ee-tau-r hiwrarchy of centr;j plac:s (os:entially market centers an'exia on and administrative ServicH centers) is suggetod. First Tier: Ouagadougou, Bobo-Dioulasso and Koudougou. These three centers already have national c1ienteles for their service and manufacturing func- tions. Existing economic infrastructure in them will need to be maintained and expanded or improved in phase with developments in the rest of the country. Second Tier: Those towns in the West and southwest WNose locations are central to either one or a combination of the projects enumerated above are destined to become relatively important market centers, among other things. Diebougou, Dedougou, and Ouahigouya stand,the greatest chance of meeting the criteria for fubure growth to regional central places, given their locations relative to their hinberlands, to Ouagadougou, and to Bobo-Mioulasso, 4.66 On the Mon& plateau where potKation denit%n qre relativqly high, Kaya and Xoupela have comparative advantage both tecaune they are central to high density Zones and because they are sufficiently distant from Ouagadougou to survive As regional centers. Third Tier: All those agglomerations of populAtion which have linkages with the regional and/or national cpntors as snurans of demand for thir crops and supply ,f' their consumer od agrioutial inpt noeds. For these, the development of transport facilities is the most nassential and efficient way of integrating them into the central place system. Transportatiop 4.67 Transportation is a key element in Upper Volta's development pro- gramming. Whether all the various development programs achieve their objec- tives and how efficiently they do depends on the facility with which people and commodities can flow between supply and demand points. 4.68 In Upper VoltaA the transportation problem has been identified as being essentially a probiem of management capability and of adequate main- tenance of the existing jetwork of roadsY The relationships between agri- cultural development, th6 marketing system, and the state of transport facilities have also bee4 clearly establi.shed.?/ Perhaps the most eloquent testimony to the need fo a better bransport system wa8 the difficulty in distributing relief food to drought victims in the cotntry from central locations both within an4 outside the country, during the recent emergency relief airlift program in the Sahel. The Road Network 4.69 Upper Volta has a relatively dense transport network -- about one kilometor of road for 651 persons and for 30 kno2, whlrch i- one of the highest for West Africa. There are two broad categories of roads (excluding urban roads), namely, classified roads and unclassified tracks. of the 8,63 kilometers of classified roads, only 576 kilometers or 6.6 percent are paved; another 3,100 kilometers (3 .7 percent) are gravel, 2,579 kilometers (29.7 percent) dirt and partly improved, and 2,438 kilometers (28.0 percent) dirt and unimproved. The classified road network is further sub-classified in Line w.th agenci-s responsible for them -- national, denartmental, and regio'al. The whole road network is &tnt.ored on Ouaadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso, with- Dedougou, Koudougoi, Kaya, Fada N'Gourma, Ouahigouya, Diebougou, and Dori 1/ See Bank Report No. 738a-UV, Appraisal of a Rural Roads Project. Upper Volta, June 6, 1975 dnd T.B.R.D., Sahol Transportation Paper prepared by the West Africa Projects Department, April 1975. 2/ Bank Report, Ibid., pp. 2-$. as outlying nodal points; The only railway line runs from Ouagadougou through Koudougou, Bobo-oioulasso, and lanfora into the Ivory Coast. It carries the bulk of the 4xport commodities and passenger traffic generated in the high-density cential plateau and the agriculturally rich southwest between the country and the Ivory Coast. 4.70 The priority attached to road transport development by the .govern- ment is reflected in the volume of funds devoted to the transport sector in 1/ the 1972-76 development plan- (about 64 percent of total for economic infrastructure). Similaly, significant proportions of external development funds go into the development of transport. Besides it potential role in the development process,lhowever, the transport sector has been one of the most productive in the country's ecoaomy despite the underdevelopment of the sector. Its share of total value added in the modern sector increased from 3.2 percent in 1964 to 4.2 percent in 1970 and, in absoluto values, from CFAF 1903 million to QFAV 3075 million; this trend implies an annual growth rate of 8.3 percent. In fact, as from 1968, the transport sector became the most productive, not only in the tertiary sector, but also in the entire modern sector. However,oit is not clear how the productivity is distributed between internal circulatory vis-a-vis external-oriented commodity and passenger movements. 4,71 Being completely landlocked, the country requiVes serviceable transportation outlets tb the outside world to facilitate bhe flow of trade. Parts of the road network connect the country's population and agricultural 1/ Plan Quinquennal de Developpment Economic et Social 1972-76, p. 218. -56- export centers to Ghana And the Ivory Coast. Similarly, the Bobo-Dioulasso- Faramana segment exits into Mali. And, of course, there is the rail link,with Abidjan in the southwest. But with these many outlets from the country, not only has the evacuation of goods been facilitated but also the mass movement of employment-seeking people. The development of transport, therefore, may have inadvertently stimulated mass emigration from the country more than comparative resource disadvantage could explain. There is therefore a potential dilenuna with rdgard to the intended objective of opening up the country for purposes of growth-inducing external trade, and the ui-intended effect of such opening up on mass movement of active population from the country. Viewed this way, transport development becomes an instrument of region-wide population redistribution in response to region-wide resource distribution. Transport Development Objectives 4.72 The objectives of transport development have to be defined relative to the country's overall development'objectives. More specifically, trans- port development objectives should be defined within the context of consump- tion, production, and distribution of commodities on one hand, and the distri- bution of people on the other for the purposes of achieving the objectives of development. 4.73 Accordingly, transport development objectives could be defined as follows: (1) to minimize transfer costs of goods and people betweon pro- ducers and consuers of commodities and the markets for those commodities; -57- (2) to increase the volume of information flows between spatially disparate distributions of people and opportunities; and (3) through (1) and (2) above, to optimize the potential for spabial-economic interactions between complementary parts of the country (and between the country and the external world) thereby increasing the potential for trade and rising incomes. 4.74 In the light of these objectives, priority areas for transport development could be identified. Such areas have been well defined in the .current development plan, and a number of specific projects identified,either independently or as part of more broadly defined projects. 4.75 The 1972-76 development plan (pages 222-224) lists about 30 projects, covering the entire country, to be financed (hopefully) mainly by external sources, namely FED, IBRD, FAC, US/AID, and the Development Bank of Upper Volta. Two of the projects, namely the Ouagadougou-Ouahigouya-Mali, and the Fada N'Gourma-Niger frontier segments are part of the evolving trans- Saheli,,an highwayl/ which, whenc. Mair .:-Lagos and the trans-Saharan highways. 4.761 The orientation of good quality roads (and the railway line) to border areas of the country reveals the external orientation of transport development planning qs many outlets as will facilitate the flows of commodities and people to and from the outside workd, the emphasis of contemporary planning, on rural develop- ment, increased agricultural production and marketing, necessitates a balari- cing, if not a shift, of emphasis in transport planning from external 1/ This highway is appraised in the paper IBRD, Sahel Transportation Paper, Ibid. - 58 - orientation to internal, circulation. Such a shift will in the long-run generate an internal economic dynamism which will not only dictate the pace for the level of intern .tional transport, but also will help mobilize resources to finance ity development. 4 9 V. INVESTMEP,1T ALLOCATION IN THE DEVELOPMWENT PLANS AND BANK PROJECTS IN UPPER VOLTA 5.01 Upper Volta's First Development Plan 1967-1970 and 1971 laid emphasis on economi.c infrastructure, especially road construction, rural development, the "m,odern sector", and social infrastructure in decreasing order, among other items. A review of the achievement of objectives listed in that plan is contained in Bank Report No. 64a-UV, July 7, 1975, pages 51-2. 5.02 The report found that "...investment levels lagged considerably behind objectives; the overall investment implementation ratio was only 59 percent over the period, and sectoral performance ranged between 48 percent and 83 percent." Infrastructure and the rural sector had the "Lowest imple-mentation ratio" (V9% and 48% respectively of planned expend-Jti:re). Achievement ratio was; lowest for livestock (25% of target). These low implementation and achievement levels were attributed t, lack of qualified personnel, "absence of a well-defined. strategy, and inufficient prepar- ation of projects." Better performances were recorded Jn the modern sector which is dominated Iy a few major cities and maufacturing establishments. Achievement ratios in the modern, sociaa, statistics anrd research/studies aetors were '(1 3%, and 73% resp' 'ctiveJy. 5.03 The low achievement ratio in the rural sector has been blamod on "....lack of qualified personnel, absence of a well-defined strategy, and insufficient preparation of projects, i.e., insufficient operating funds" (Bank Report No. 564a-UV, page 51). The report does not explain the rela- tive success of the non-rural sector, - 6o - 5.04 Among factor- accounting for the apparent relative success of the non-rural (urban) sector are: (1) the inherent structure of rural-urban linkage relations in the process of modernization such that in the early stages, social and economic infrastructure , even when they are intended for the rural population, tend to be urban-biased. For instance, it was found that 61 percent of the investments earmarked for herding during the First Plan went to the construction of an office in Ouagadougou, a school for veterinary nurses in 1/ Ouagadougou, and an experimental ranch in the Northeast.- The sane thing was more or less true of the social, and economic infrastructure sectors; (2) the role of foreign credit, the channelling of which is usually tied to modern sector institutions and entrepreneurship. Given the significant contribution of foreign sources in Upper 2/ Volta's investment budgeting, it is easy to see why the urban sector has fared so much better than the rural sector; (3) the fact that urban investments are usually more easily con- ceived and economically rationalized, given the comparative advantage of urban places with regard to locational and agglo- meration economies attached to them; 1/ J.W. Gregory, "Development and In-Migration in Upper Volta"., Special Studies, undated, page 312. 2/ See Bank Report, ibid., Annex tables 3.5, .1. - 61 - (4) finally, there are inherent, implicit (and probably subconscious) spatio-polibical biases in the formulation of policy such that the urban areas, where the ruling elites are based, invariably benefit more than the rural areas in terms of social overheads. Effects of Spatial Allocation of Investments 5,O5 Although there are no precise figures to substantiate them, the following effects are observable from the spatial allocation of investments: (1) a drift of young people from rural areas to urban areas; and (2) a general shift of population towards the city-rich region of the country, i.e. the central and southwestern parts. 5.06 The two effects are, however,'not due solely to spatial investment allocation differentials. Just as it induces mass emigration from Upper Volta, the environmental factor (in terms of soils and rainfall) has lately become important in inducing rural-urban as well as city-poor to city-rich regional population movements. This trend is armirable in the light of the need to redistribute population from the overcrowded areas in the central parts of the country to the sparsely populated but agriculturally rich western and southwestern parts. There is need, however, for creating oppor- tunities for gainful employment in these areas as well as the frontier areas in the south where health hazards have prevented the emergence of permanent settlements. Without such opportunities, population redistribution resulting from environmental chinge and resource differentials cannot re8ult in greater utilization of potential resources. Bank Projects in Upper Volta 5.07 As of April 30, 1975 there were nine ongoing Bank Group projects in Upper Volta. In addition, credit for a rural roads project was approved on - 62 - June 16, 1975. A list of these projects with summary descriptions of them is attached as an annex to this report. 5.08 Of the various projects, the roads, agricultural, and health-related ones have the greatest potential for generating increased outputs and marketing. Being concentrated in the western and southwestern parts where population is sparsely distributed and transport facilities poor, most of the projects have substantial road maintenance and/or development components. The 'Rural Roads Project 5.09 The rural roads project is concentrated in the area covered by the West Volta cotton project, the Bougouriba agricultur,l development project, and in the Mos8i plateau. Under the project 1,200 km of rural J?oads will be improved and 2,100 km maintained over a 5-year period. Technical assistance will be provided to the Ministry of Public Works and equipment procured to facilitate implementation of the program. 5.10 Two of the projects are directed at fairly well defined target groups, namely the West Volta cotton project and the livestock development projects; a third one, the Bougouriba agricultural development projecb also has vaguely identifiable target populations. The West Volta Cotton Project 5.11 The objectives of this project were to persuade 46,000 cotton growers to increase acreage from 44,000 hectares to 76,000 hectares by 1975 through improved methods of cultivation. The total population of the project area, encompassing Bobo-Dioulasso and Dedougou ORDS was estimated at 893,000 in 1975. A total of 85,000 tons additional ginning capacity were planned for instalment respectively at Bobo-Dioulasso (39,000 tons), Ouagadougou (7,000 tons), Koudougou (14,000 tons), and Hounde (25,000 tons). At the end of the project in 1975, however, the ginner planned for Hounde had not been installed. 1/ 1/ This information was provided by Mr. Burer of the West Africa Projects ; Department. - 63 - The impact of the project is already becoming discernible: in 1972/73 for instance, yields of cotton were 670 kg per hectare in the project' area as against only 232 kg in other regions.l The Livestock Development Project 5.12 This project is expected to benefit about 287,000 pastoralists and farmers in the Bobo-Dioulasso and Dedougou ORDS. Components of the project include ranch development, improvement of livestock marketing, meat processing and veterinary services. Nine group ranches and one ranch development center are to be built; their locations are not known. One livestock market is to be constructed at Bobo-Dioulasso, and the existing slaughterhouse in the same city will be renovated. There is a staff development and train- ing component to be established at Samorogouan, a small settlement about 80 kmn northwest-of Bobo-Dioulasso. 5.13 At maturity the project is expected to be providing cash incomes directly from livestock trade ranging from about $60 to $200 per year, and related extension jobs for about 120 people. 5.14 The success of this project will be partly determined by the effec- tiveness of extension workers in winning converts from traditional agricul- ture to the more unconventional group ranching. Success will also be determined, among others, by how many new pastoralist migrants can be attracted into the project area and sedenterized, and how smoothly they can be integrated into their new environment. For while there might be enough physical environmental stimuli and willingness to migrate, there might also be formidable land tenure and sociological problems in the project area. 5.15 In conclusion, Bank projects have been appropriately concentrated 1/ Bank Report No. 56ha-UV, Page 8. in the agricultural sector; roads, health, water development, marketing facilities, training facilities and equipment have all been incorporated into an agricultural development strategy. As elsewhere, however, economic development, no matter how it comes about tends to find expression in central places. The more virile the agricultural sector is, therefore, the greater the need to equip the central places for their service, processing, and marketing roles. For this reason, Bobo-Dioulasso, Dedougou, Diebougou, Banfora, Koudougou, and Gaoua among other locations require special atten- tion with regard to their capacities to perform central functions demanded by development in surrounding areas. VI. 0ONCIUSIONS Population 6.01 Populaticn size and growth rate in Upper Volta are still modest enough to permit economic growth without the constraint of massive urban unemployment. The concentration of population in the resource- deficient Mossi plateau, the incidence of a hostile climate and poor soils, and government tax policy indiscriminately applied throughout the country have combined to stimulate migration to the cities and mass emigration from the country. 6.02 The process of population redistribution is naturally so slow that it will be unrealistic to tie the success of a five-year or even a fifteen- year development plan to population redistribution. For this reason, the 1972-1976 development plan may fall short of its objectives by a wide margin. Migration 6.03 The complementarities between regions within Upper Volta are still weaker than those between the country and its southern neighbors, i.e., Ghana and the Ivory Coast. Accordingly, emigration from thecountry is still more important than migraticn within the country. There is need for a clear expression of a migration policy although present statements about emigration seem to view it as harmful to the country's economy. 6.0A It is the judgment of this paper that emigration is of net benefit to Upper Volta. While not deliberately promoting emigration, policy makers should maximize the benefits from emigration simply by reducing the costs of trying to stop or control it to zero. - 66 - 6.05 The real need is to create opportunities for employment within the country for the benefit of those who remain. Structure of the Economy 6.06 Agriculture remains the cornerstone of the econonomy although productivity in the sector is still very low. While cultivable areas need to be expanded to absorb potential flow of population from the Mossi plateau, the productivity of farmers,both on the plateau and in the other parts of the country, could be greatly improved. 6.07 The modern sector, though comparatively more productive, is yet very miniscule; there is great potential for increasing linkages between the modern and the traditional sectors as the economy is still largely dual. Such potential lies in the development of market institutions and facilities, transport, agricultural extension, and promotion of bac)cward-linked agro- industries. 6.08 Success and failure in achieving development objectives have been determined in the past by an interplay of human, environmental, and struc- tural (sectoral and spatial) factors. The major human factors are health, and skilled manpower, especially in the agricultural sector. Drought, poor soils, and widespread disease are the main environmental factors. The .predominance of peasant agriculture and existence of dualism between the modern and traditional sectors have also constrained development. There is need to integrate the eentral place system through transport and trade linkages between different levels of the spatial hierarchy. 6.09 One approach to integrating the spatial economic system is to designate a system of central places on the basis of a hierarchy of functions closely related to agricultural development. This locational aspect of - 67 - planning hap not received adequate emphasis in Bank Group project appraisals. The effect is that prbject target populations are only vaguely defined at the time of project approval, thus slowing down the transition between project appraisal and project implepentation. Bibliography Ambroise Songre, "Mass Emigration from Upper Volta: the facts and impli- cations", International Labor Review, Vol. 108, Nos. 2 and 3, August/' September, 1973, Dieter Biehl, Eibe Hussman, Sebastian Schnyder, "Determinants of Regional Development Potential: Infrastructure, Economic Structure and Agglomeration", The German Economic Review, (Stuttgart) 13: No. 2: 117-34, 1975. - J.W. Gregory, "Urbanization and Development Planning in Upper Volta: The Education Variable", in Salah El-Shakhs and Robert Obudho, Eds., Urbanization, National Development and Regional Planning in Africa, Praeger) 197M. J.W. Gregory, "Development and In-migration in Upper Volta", Reprint from Special Studies, undated. J.W. Gregory, "Migration in Upper Volta", African Urban Notes, Vol. VI, No. 1, Spring 1971. Centre Voltaigue de la recherche Scientifique, Republique de Haute-Volta, Atlas de Haute-Volta, Carte des densites de population, 1968. Julien Conde, "Urbanisation and Migration in West Africa", paper prepared for a seminar on Urbanization and International Migration in Some Arab and African Countries, Cairo Demographic Center, Dec., 1973. E.P. Skinner, African Urban Life: The Transformation of Ouagadougou, Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J., 1974. Official Documents IBRD/IDA - Report No. 674a-UV. Appraisal of a Livestock Development Project, Upper Volta, May 8, 1975. - Report No. 738a-UV. Appraisal of a Rural Roads Project, Upper Volta, June 6, 1975. - Report No. 297a-UV. Anpraisal of Bougouriba Agricultural Devel- opment Project, Upper Volta, May 10, 1974. - Report No. 564a-UV. Current Economic Position and Development Prospects, Upper Volta, July 7, 1975. - Report No. PA-127a-UV. Appraisal of a Rural Development Fund Project, Upper Volta, May 16, 1972. - Report No. PA-58a-UV. West Volta Cotton Project, Upper Volta, December 5, 1970. -2- IDA - Report No. P-1312a. Report and RecopmmendatioA of the President to the Executive Directors on Proposed Credits to Six Sahelian Countires for Drought Relief, October 24, 1973. - Report No. P-1628a-UV. Report and Recommendation of the President to the Executive Directors on a Proposed Credit to Republic of Upper Volta for Rural Roads Project, January 16, 1975. TBRD - Sahel Transportation Paper, April 1975, West Africa Projects Dept. - Upper Volta, Water Supply Sector Reconnaissance, November 1974. CPS, Public Utilities Department. Other Official Documents UNDP - Report No. DP/GC/UPV/R.1, 30 Narch, 1973: Country and Intercountry Programming, Upper Volta. - Report No. ST/UNSO/1, 10 October, 1975, of the United Nations Sahelian Office: Project Data Sheet No. 1. US/AID - Development Assistance Program FY1975, Upper Volta and Niger, Department of State, March 1975. - Foreign Economic Trends..............; American Embassy, Ouagadougou, Upper Volta, April, 1975. Government of Upper Volta Plan Quinquennal de Developpement Economique et Social, 1972-1976, and the Supplementary Documents Annexes. А�'. 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'а " S1 '' � .а iч. iм 4.5. ,ii .j .л 1 'а :1 .1У.1 f пi ; � . S 4 � I .+1� г�`i ; га и1 и� �h ti.1 м rэ �•5 чг .n а е> ri .) r� . с-. �� ь, .г г� t w. г, i. . з.•, > А `� йЛ Г:. oj : S � ,п �л о� sь tи ис .- �г. �� ....• п с. • ь 1,� V• 1.N Н�! ы�г ч й ь•ь •i У Э r i f- У� W i.�{ ГJ .- �I t{� tr ;з j зt _ г t1 Уг ' 1• �:i yq 'ь� . iь ' р к .� ,ы У �У г.! ti ,, r : н APPENDIX Table 3 A?VELOP4FNT PLAIIS, IMPLEW-I;TATMI RATIOS OP 2VESnm!TT AM FINIPbicig0 (in CPAF billion) FIRST DEMOPItivtrZ PLAN (I Gt 7- Vý', Iýciplementition Dimburs".?"IZ Invv h t*,ý tit. I o Pi fiýu .2!l (.11 Actutil RcLtip rjdý % % 1. Rural Development 8.88 4.28 48 8.88 4.57 2, Modern Sector 5.95 4.20 71 5.95 4.8s 81 87 iniorniatLon) 11.88 5.76 9 S.O.ý 72 4. Soci41 sectot ti.83 4,03 83 4. d3, 4.45 5. reu"r;lies, 2.03 1.49 7-1 2.03 1.68 83 and lituý1lý,.4 6. Administrzitkve kn£nrmation '11 L03ýA-L ý3.57 19.76 59 23.60 L4 (1971) I. Rur,ýl 1,99 1,47 76 1,ýq 1.98 Jiý1 P. Modarn ýýcator 1.70 1.33 2-8 1.70 1.45 85 92 (+ Infortitaticin) 3.75 3.71 3.75 5-44 ]5? 68 Social Scotor 0.56 0,43 76 0.56 0.51 91 84 5. 0.5ý, ).40 77 0.52 0.55 106 73 Adniniiitiintlyo information --- 0.04 0.06 Irurii L 1,52 7.18 8.52 9.97 Il- rIVF,1k,"R j Itiwal. De"lepment (.20 3.79 5ý 4.79 1 79 74 ýnformaficin) lý3 74 3,5 Statisties, remearches, 1.5.t 0.78 50 1.57 0.80 1 9p, and studies 6. Adrdmistrative irtfomation 0,7T 0.21 26 0-77 0.62 7 'r ý4 7. TOTAL 32,o6 24.84 77 32.o6 31.36 9,ý Aan vrid trancbkj Soul". do ýýautc-I;(,Itl, -i 1,1a11 Czxdx-o pilan ilexécutloii du Plan Intfirý1r.aire Ig?I and Bilan d'exýcutlon du Tilgri 197P-1976 -ýinrik 1972 É 51, IEUSTRIAL PRODUCTIN 19, -73 Tyne ý Product rnit 1967 1963 1969 :91 1971 1972 1973 rood products Carbor:. water 100tX '-ectoliters 17 17 "2 ?7 13 39 licer iox: 40 42 5 78 113 lce 1000 '.atric tons 3.1 2.9 -3 E..6 6.9 10.0 Rice hu-: 2 1002 " -- 1.5 .6 - -- -- -- Sugar 1000 " -- 1.2 1.. -3.0 . 13.7 Cil and ; Groundn. ý,-l (refined) 10C0 c2tric tons 7.6 4.5 7.1 7,. 0.9 0.9 1.0 .- Groundr.. -zke 1000 " -- 0.9 0.8 0.. .2 1.2 1.2 Sheaut .:er 1000 " 7.5 11.7 9.5 11.. 0.8 0,9 - Beds Xi0's 3.7 5.4 3.8 4.! 2.2 2.3 - --a heets 1720's lE5 220 361 355 552 Shzes 100 -rs- -- 5 754 c73 982 1,145 Mlatche rlil:-ions of boxes 16 20 23 25 26 32 Cigaret.-: millitns of p=cks -- 7 i2 13 ~5 16 16 Bicycle-, semòling) l",O's 25 23 30 17 23 2 Motorcy'. (4s':emtbling) l1<s 2.5 2.9 4.8 6.0 7.4 Textile i r_ Ginned : n 100' x,tric tans 5.7 8.6 ~.3 .0 10.5 1 Cotton t e milion meters -- - -- 3` 4.8 6.4 ChemicaI _ Soa 1000 -,ctric tons 1L9 2.3 2.4 7~ 2.8 2.9 5.1 Consret -aterials Brick 1000 metric tons 3-6 4.2. 3.6 5.0 4.-- Pcwer :-0J0 kwh 21L4 22.8 25.2 27. 32.7 37.1 42.2 millon M3 3.2 3.3 3.6 . 4.4 4.5 5.3 Source.: etir Mensu2l d':irfratizn Statistique et :con.=icue", Eirec-:ern de '-a 2iti-r-! de .écanographie. APPENDTX Table 5: tharacteristics of the ORD's Table 5 ORD Are Population Inhab/ Rainfall Sponsor Management Potential Km (1970) Km2 1 Ouagadougou 24,179 755,000 31 750-1000 FAC SATEC Poor to 1968 Koudougou 26,324 685,950 26 800-1000 FAC SATEC Poor to Mediocre 2 Kaya 21,578 558,000 26 650-800 FAG CFDT Poor Ouahigouya 12,300 504,000 l1 600-700 FED BDPA Very Poor or Yatenga Dedougou 27,356 545,900 15 800-1100 IBRD CFDT FAIR was FAC Bobo Dioulasso 20,500 269,000 13 1100-1200 IBRD CFDT 4 Fairly IRHO Good Banfora 18,398 203,600 11 1200-1400 FED was r Good ends 1974 SOIESA Diebougou- 14,488 157,300 11 1000-1200 IBRD was Fairly Gaoua ends 1974? CIDR Good Koupela 15,657 333,300 21 700-1000 CIDA CIDA Poor CIDR CFDT Fada N'Gourma 43h,414 202,750 5 700-1000 AID AID Mediocre UNDP UNDP Sah6l 36,870 273,000 7,4 400-700 -- Poor 1. Societe dtAssitance Technique et de Cooperation 26 Compagnie Francai8e Po'ur le Developpenent des Fibres Textiles 3. Bureau Pour le Developpoment de la Production Agricole 14, Institut de Recherches pour les Huiles et Oleagineux 5. Societe Technique pour le Developpement Agricole 6. Compagnie International Developpement Rural gANNEX 3 Page 1 of 3 ESTIMATES OF EMIGRATION REQUIREMENTS 1. About 61 percent of the total population livfs in the Mossi Plateau which represents only 32 percent of the total area, and the average density (36 inhabitants/km2 in 1972) is dangerously close to the maximum density of 40 inh./km2 that agronomists see to be the maximum that the land can support at subsistence food level without further deterioration of soils and decreas- irg yields. A strategy based on population movements out of the plateau is therefore proposed in this report. 2. To gain a better understanding of the problem and to design appro- priate palicies requires theoretical population movements out of the plateau for the sixteen coming years (1975-1990) have been estimated under five sets of assumptions. Two assumptions are common to all five resulting models; first, a natural population growth rate of 1.2 percent p.a., in the plateau, which is believed to be the current rate; second, maximum density acceptable in the plateau is set at 40 inh./km2. Population movements are of two sorts: from one ORD to another within the plateau ("inter-ORDs emigration") , and out of the plateau to other parts of the rountry "(outward emigration"). What therefore differentiates one model from the other is the timin3, the scope, and the pattern of these movements. Specific characteristics of each model are as follows: Model A: Outward emigration starts in 1990 only after maximum density has been reached in each ORD throughout inter- ORDs emigration within the area. Model B: No inter-ORDs emigration takes place at all between 1975 and 1989. By contrast, outward emigration in 1975 is such that no over-population, i.e. more than maximum density, exists in any single ORD within the area between 1975 and 1989. Model C: No inter-ORD emigration takes place at all between 1975 and 1989, but outward emigration of 15,000 people per year takes place throughout the period. Model D: Inter-ORD- emigr-.cion is 10,000 people p.a. and outward emigration 15,000 people p.a. Model E: Same as Model D but 23,000 people (instead of 15,000) emigrate out of the plateau annually. 3. With Model. A, in 1990, 386,000 people would have to emigrate out of the plateau and 141,000 people within the pl.teau. It is almost impossible. to carry out an emigration of this size in one year and, more importantly, without this emigra tion carried out, the Hlos-si Plate;tu will reach the dosity of 45 inhabitants/km2; this case therefoce is largrcly unrealiftic. With Model B, the average population density in 1990 woild be 38 inh./km2, still ANNEX y Page 2 of 3 below the maximum. However, accordiig to the model, 216,000 people or about 7 percent of the 1975 total population would have to be recottled outside the Mossi Plateau in one year, i.e. 1975. Once thi, massive r:'settlement w-ould have been achieved, outward emigration could continue ,t a more mana,eble rate of 10,000 people each year. With Model C, the sizc of pnpulation TOVe- ments required would become the loweot, 351,000 people.* The model suflers, however, from three drawbacks; first, absence of inter-ORD emigration in the model is unrealistic as noted earlier; second, in the terminal year, 1990, 126,000 people still would have to move out; thrd, in 1990, the occupncy of the plateau would be very unevenly distributed with the highest dcnSity being 54 inh./km2 in the Yatanga ORD and with the lowest density being 34 inh./km2 in the Kaya ORD. With Model D, inter-ORD migration would result in a more even distribution of population within the plateau, but 124,000 people still would remain tn 1990 to be resettled out of the plateau. With Model. E, a more even distribution of population would be achieved in 1990 (around 39 inh./km2), still below the maximum density on the one hand, and more iiportont, no additional emigration would be noeded in 1990 since total population at that time (3,058,000) would b- less than the maximum population acceptable (3,157,000). Therefore, Model E appears to be the most realistic with an uhderlying assumption of an outward emigration of 23,000 people per annum and inter-ORD emigration of 10,000 people. 4. What will happen after 1990? The answer is simple. In .each oi the five models the plateau would be occupied "fully" in 1990, i.e., with the maximum density of 40 inh./km2. It means that after 1990, annual outward emigration corresponding to the natural growth of the population of about 40,000 people 1/ would be needed. 5. The following table contains the results with details for each ORD in the Central region. 1/ With a 1.2 percent growth rate and a total population of 3,156,000 in 1990. Migration Requirezen in and Through 1990 2E (000 inhabita pe 3f 3 1. With M"odel A Etmt~~rro eiie f Maximum Pop,ulation Estiinated Iligration Reuired(n .ut- acceptable wth t 1972 (actua!) 1981 1990 1990 ORD'S-' density of 40inh./kn2 ('000inh.) (densitv) (000inh.) (density) (1000inh.) (densitv) (*000inh.) Ouagadougou2 964 849 35 945 39 1,051 43 Koupela 352 272 30 301 33 33 37 (in) 141 xaya 862 593 27 660 31 735 34 Yatnga, 493 . 531 43 592 48 659 54 (out) 386 Koudougou _2 486 613 50 683 56 760 _ __ Total 157 2,858 3,180 40 3543 45 527 2. With Nadel B Estimated Migration Reuired (out 1990 195 19'-90 Total 19,5-90 kU*s_^ ('W0inh.) (density) (000inh.) <00(inh.) ('O,rinh.) Ouagadougou2 964 40 0 66 (6 Koupela 33 37 0 0 0 Kaya 735 34 0 0 0 Yatenga 493 40 57 75 132 Koudou_ou---- 46 40 149 Total 3,016 320 (out) 2~ (out) 4y> (aut> 3. With Model cigration Reguired (out) 191 1990 1975-199 199 Total !95-90 ('000ir.h.) (den sitv) (-0001nh.1 densit__ ('000inh.) C"OLnh.) (000inl.) Ouag,adougou- 945 39 1,054 43 Koupela 300 33 339 38 Kaya 66o 31 736 34 (out) (out) Yatenga 592 45 660 54 15 p.a. la p.a Kaudouou - 572 11 494 41 Total 3,069 -9 3.253 41 225 2 3l (out) 4. With model D Estimated miration Requ_red (in and or) ORD'S- 1951 1990 19 -19-9 1; Ton 1" -93 2('000inh (dea.[tv) ('G0inh.) (density) (0O0in'.) ('j00inh.) ( Ouagadougu- Koupela 945 39 1,025 42 Kaya 361 40 - 397 44 Yatenga , 670 31 83$ 39 (in)l0 p.a. (in) 1h0 Koudouzou- 592 4 499 41 (out)15 p.a. (out) 124 (ut) .9 Total 498 41 5?2 _43. -_ 3,66 39 3.21 41 375 124 499 5., With Model E Estmated Mirrtion Recuired (in a - 1990 197-"- 9 1990 T: - -90 ORD'S- ('00inh.) (dnsit). CCOainh.) (density) ('000inh.) ('000inh.) -sh-) Quagadougou 9 39 90 3$ Koupela 36(in)10 p.a none (in) 1O aYea (out)23 p.a. (out) 345 yJtenga ''3 Total 3,OOJ 3L 305- 39 495 04 '4 in - inter-ORD migration; out - outward migration !LOrganismes R ýonaux de Développement !2 'WirZiout urban population L3 Excluding Téo diser ct ANNH EX II Pa;e 1 of 6 pages, STATUS OF BANK GROTP OPRtTIONS IN UPPER VOLTA A. On-going Projects STATEMENT OF IDA CREDIT (as of April 30, 1975) (USe millicn) Credit Amount (less cancellations) Number Year Borrower Puroose IDA Undisbursed 11--UV 1969 Republic of Upper Volta Telecommunications 0.8 - 225-UV 1970 Republic of Upper Volta West Volta Cotton 6.2 2.8 316-UV 1972 Republic of Upper Volta Roads 4.15 2.6 317-UV 1972 Republic of Rural Dvelopment Upper Volta Fund 2.2 1.1 430-UV 1973 Republic of Upper Volta Education 2.85 2.85 431-UV 1973 Republic of Upper Volta Telecommunications 4.5 4.2 AJ,2-UV 1973 Republic of Upper Volta Drought Relief 2.0 1.5 h/6-UV* 1.97 Republic of Bougouriba Agricul- Upper Volta tural Development 8.0 8.0 * 1975 Republic of Livestock Develop- Upper Volta ment Project 9.0 9,0 TOTAL 39.7 of which has been repaid TOTAL now held by IDA,* TOTAL undisbursed 0 * Not yet effective ** Prior to exchange adjustment of US$0.2 million. B. STATEMT OF IFC INVESTMENTS (as of April 30, 1975) NIL ANNEX II Page 2 of 6 pages C. PROJECTS IN EXECUTION Credit 225: West Volta Cotton Project. US06.2 Million Credit of December 30, 1970; Closing Date June3196 The project is in the final stage of a cotton production development program in West Volta, which originally started with FAC financing in 1963. It consists of both expansion of the area under cotton cultivation on some 46,000 farms and improvement of yields through credit and extension services, and provision of better communications and processing facilities. The proj- ect also includes funds for detailed engineering of secondary roads and prepara- tion of the Bougouriba Agricultural Development Project. Plagued by very poor weather conditions during the past three years and a severe drought last year, seed cotton production in the project area remained below expectations (about 20,000 t as against 50,000 t estimated in the appraisal report) and the areas under cotton also remained stagnant. Improved rainfall distribution in 1974/75 increased yields to about 25,000 t. which however is still low. Because of the low production, the existing ginneries in Bobo- Dioulasso and Koudougou work at only 50 percent capacity, and therefore the construction of an additional ginnery at Hounde, estimated in the appraisal report at CFA 256 million, is for the time being not justified. With favorable weather conditions and improved prices, the project areas may reach the 40,000 t production goal in 1978, at which point the present gin- neries would have to work at full capacity. Although the production goals as set out in the appraisal report have not yet been reached, the project is having a favorable impact on the rural population of the project area and therefore a follow-up rural develop- ment project is being considered. Credit 316: Road Project. US$4.15 Million Credit of June 26, 1972 (as amended on March 25, 1974); Closing Date December 31, 1975 Originally the i;roject comprised (a) the reconstruction of the Solenzo Koudougou (70 km) and the Hounde-Bereba (27 km) roads, and (b) fea- sibility studies for about 400 km of primary roads, and engineering of those sections found to have the highest priority. I The pre-selection of contractors for part (a) above took place in November 1972. Four bids were received in 1973, the lowest being about 25 percent higher than the appraisal estimate. Construction of the Solenzo Koudougou road began in March 1974. This road should be completed shortly. Construction of the Houndo-Boreba road is now deleted from the project as cotton production does not mecit the construction of the ginnery and without the ginnery there is no justification for the road. Government suggestions for alternative road projects are being considered presently. ANNEX II Page 3 of 6 pages Regarding (b) above, the Government pr6posed four roads to be studied and the Association agreed to only two, from Bobo-Dioulasso to Hounde and Bobo-Dioulasso to Banfora (a total of about f90 km) as these were the only roads considered likely to show a satisfactdry rate of return. Feasi- bility studies have been completed and detailed ongineering is now underway. Due to currency realignments and to codt overruns on the road construction part of the project, the dollar cost of the project increased. Consequently, to enable completion of the project, on March 25, 1974 the Association approved an increase of US$1.35 million in the amount of the Credit from US$2.8 million to US$4.15 million. 1(t is expected that the proj- ect will be completed and the credit fully disbur'sed by the present closing date. Credit 317: Rural Development Fund Project. USS2.2 Million Credit of June 26, 1972; Closing Date Septembgr 30, 1976 Between 300,000 and 450,000 people are benefiting from the project. The Rural Development Fund (RDF) Division has been established within the Banque Nationale de Developpement (8ND) to execute the project; it started operating in September 1972. ND's performance and project management are satisfactory. It has just completed its first annual program on the basis of proposals made by the Organismes Regionaux de Developpement (ORD). The main components of this program are dug and tube wulls, village warehouses and development of bottomlands. Execution of the project which started slowly mainly due to delays over project prefinancing and staff appointments has gained momentum during the 1973/74 season. Experience has shown that the project concept is sound, in that financing small.projects can have a direct and beneficial effect on the poorest 40 percent who are willing to co- operate fully in contributing their labor. It is' also encouraging to see how a fairly complex management set-up involving the expertise of various governmental institutions (HER, PW, Agriculture and the ORD) can be used to make a combined effort in rural development. A follow-up project, RDF II, is presently under preparation. Credit 430: Education Project. US$2.85 Million Credit of September 28, 1973; Closin.SDate June 30, 1978 The Credit was approved on June 21, 1973 and signed on September 28, 1973. It became effective on June 27, 1974. The project consists of two parts: Part A Reconstruction and equipping of 40 rural education centers (CERs) and equipping of 80 such centers; organization eqipping and servicing of 150 cooperative groups (GPS) of former CER students ad the pilot phase of a ANNEX II Page 4 of 6 pages scheme to create some 500 such groups; creation of three rural development centers; related technical assistance for project implementation and evalua- tion; a feasibility study of a system to train managers for rural development projects. Part B Provision of science facilities for 21 secondary schools. While progress on Part B of the project which is under the Ministry of Education has been satisfactory, there have been no disbursements under Part A. This is mainly the result of the weakness in project management. The rural education part of the project is particularly complex because it involves the coordination of two other donors, the FAC and the FED. In addition, certain changes proved necessary in the concept of rural education: (a) the linkage of the centers to specific rural development activities; (b) full participation of the.communities in the objectives of the centers. The Project is under continuous supervision from the MRWA in Abidjan and the Government, FAC, FED and the Bank are working to strengthen project management. Credit 431: Second Telecommunications Project. US$4.5 Million Credit of September 28, 1973; Closing Date June 30, 1978 The Credit was approved on June 21, 1973 and signed on September 28, 1973. It became effective on May 23, 1974. This credit, the second made to Upper Volta for telecommunications, finances the major part of Upper Volta's 1974-77 telecommunications expansion program. The project comprises provision of automatic and trunk switching equipment, local distribution networks and subscribers' apparatus, microwave links, auxillary construction and equipment, consultants services and training of personnel. The executing agency for the project is the Office des Postes et Telecommunications de Haute-Volta (OPT) an autonomous public entity. The execution of the project has been progressing on schedule. All major contracts were awarded by the end of 1974. It should be completed by December 1977. As compared to appraisal forecasts, project costs have in- creased only slightly on the project's local cost components, and the IDA Credit is judged sufficient to cover the project's foreign exchange requirements. The financial results for the year ending December 31, 1973 were satisfactory, though the actual rate of return was 8 percent compared to the appraised rate of return of 10.4 percent. OPT financial outlook-for the years 74-77 is projected to deteriorate, however. OPT is aware of this, and is currently studying several financial policy alternatives. ANNEX II Page 5 of 6 pages Credit 442: Drought Relief Project. US$2.0 Million Credit of December 7, 1973; Closing Dto June 30,1976 The Credit was approved on November 13, 1973 and signed on December 7, 1973. It was declared effective on April 24, 1974. This Credit is one of six credits made available to the six Sahelian countries to help people in drought-affected areas to re-ostablish their self-sufficiency through redevelopment and improvement oC Their farms and hords, The project is being executed by the Rural Development Fund Division which was established within the Banque Nationale do Developpement to execute the on-going IDA-financed Rural Development Fund Project. The project consists of four sub-projects; (i) construction and equipment of 150 wells; (ii) construction of three earth lams; (iii) purchase of road equipment for repair of feeder roads; (iv) construction of six seed storage warehouses., The Project area is that part of Northern Upper Volta affected by the drought. The procurement phase is completed and the execution of the tube- well drilling program, the most important component of the project, t;il start shortly. The well drilling program was delayed for almost one year due to default by suppliers of vehicle parts and drilling pipes, which are essential to the assembling of the drilling rigs. It is anticipated that only one of the originally planned three dams will be constructed due to price increases in the other sub-projects. Management has the project well in hand, but it is doubtful that the project will be completed on time due to the late arrival of new drilling rigs. Credit 496: Bougourib Agricultural Developmen. US$8..0 Million Credit of July 19, 1974; Closing Date May 312-1979 The Credit was approved on May 30, 1974 and signed on July 19', 1974. The Credit is not yet effective and no disbursements have taken place. Delays have been due primarily to problems in recruiting key staff. However, the Project Director has been appointed and preparatory work is proceeding, and the credit should become effective very shortly. The project, to be carried out over a four-year period, is t1c first major effort to develop the natural and huian resources of the Bougouriba ORD. The project will concentrate on the areas presently free of onchocerciasis. The p,oject includes food crop and cotton development; a program for prophylac- tic vaccinations of livestock, provision of agricultural credit and extensLon services, well construction, feeder road improvement, intensive staff twaining, applied research and road studies. ANNEX II Page 6 of 6 pages Credit Livestock Development Project, US$9.0 million Credit of June , 1975; Closing Date The Credit was approved on May 27 and signing is expected shortly, The project, to be carried out over five years, is a broadly based program to assist cattle production in the Dedougou and Bobo-Dioulasso Regional Development Agencies (ORDs) through group ranch development, the improvement of veterinary services, livestock marketing, meat processing and the provision of technical assistance. It will help about 300,000 traditional cattle producers and, in addition will introduce commercial ranching to the traditional sector. 므 ：주－&& , . F ^� ^ z . ° ' i _ . , -,,.-. s.. � ... ._ " - • • х ` . .4` • . � ' � - д^ 7 Т . с. „ 2� д.R.. ,,.^+. k � � i �^ ^ i�` /Б RFP46C4C ^�� U"ER VGEяA �•`� i'�/'`-`' ��.��✓.-�.�..�..^,�_.�--"�.1• � � ;' �`-` � � t '� RUR�L ROADS PR�IECT � _��`"" :� � � , � L � -r � � s Р ` .., � � � �� г• < < � / Б � j , L\ � р� .��^^\. � олго , �� 1 ✓ � . 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