Madagascar - Second Education Project

Document of The World Bank FILE COPY FOR OFmFCIAL USE ONLY Repqt No. 1174a-MAG STAFF PROJECT REPORT SECOND EDUCATION PROJECT IN MADAGASCAR October 19, 1976 Education Projects Division Eastern Africa Regional Office This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only In the perfornunce of their offici duties. Its eontents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank utboriation.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS US$1 = FMG 218 FMG 1,000 = US$4.59 MEASURES 1 Meter (m) = 3.28 Feet 1 Square Meter (m2) 10.76 Square Feet I Kilometer (km) = 0.62 Miles 1 Hiectare (ha) = 2.47 Acres GOVERNMENT OF MADAGASCAR FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31  MADAGASCAR FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY SECOND EDUCATION PROJECT STAFF PROJECT REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. BASIC DATA GLOSSARY SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ................................... i- ix I. DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN RESOURCES ..........................1 Socio-Economic Background ........................... National and Regional Administration .... ............ 1 Decentralization of Government Structure .... ........ 2 Employment Trends ................................... 3 Educated Manpower Need and Supply .... ............... 4 Conclusions ......................................... 5 II THE EDUCATION AND TRAINING SECTOR ........................ 6 Administrative Structure ............................ 6 Structure of the Education System ..... .............. 6 Content of Education ................................ 6 Enrollment Growth ................................... 7 Education Finance ................................... 7 Problems of the System .............................. 9 Government Plans for the Sector ..................... 11 Assessment of Government Plans ...................... 13 An Investment Strategy for Education .... ............ 16 A Bank mission visited Madagascar in 1974 to review educational plans and assess priorities, and the proposed project was prepared by the Government assisted by a Unesco team in October 1975. An appraisal mission comprising Messrs. F.C. Gamble, R.F. McMahon and G. Sinclair and Ms. C.A. Stover, all Bank Group staff, visited Madagascar in December 1975. An edited revision in French of the draft staff project report prepared by this mission was discussed with the Government by Messrs. Gamble and Sinclair in June 1976. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  -2- Page No. Charts and Annexes: Comparative Education Indicators .......... .......... 17 Chart 2.1 Organization of the Ministry of Education, 1974 . ............... ........ 19 Chart 2.2 Existing & Proposed Revised Structures of the Education System ................ 20 Chart 2.3 Education Pyramid 1974 .................. 21 Annex 2.1 Growth in Education Enrollments, 19to -i9i4 ......... . . .. . . .. . . . 2. Annex 2.2 Recurrent Exptnditures on Education, 1972-1975 ... ........................... 23 Annex 2.3 Enrollment and Budgetary Implications of the Expanded Basic Education Systemn Envisaged in the Charter .... ........... 24 III. THE PROJECT ................................ ................. 25 Project Strategy and Objectives ........ .. ........... 25 Project Items ......... .......... .................... 26 Regional Education Centers ........ .. ........... 26 National Teaching Materials Production Center 28 Textbook Development ........... .. ........ 31 Educational Statistics and Planning ...... 32 Educational Evaluation .... ..................... 32 Project Administration and Pre-Investment Studies ....................................... 33 IV. COST ESTIMATES, FINANCIAL PLAN, IMPLEMENTATION AND PROCURMENT AND DISBURSEMENTS .......................... 34 Cost Estimates ................. .. ................... 34 Financial Plan ................. .. ................... 36 Implementation ...... ....................... ... 37 Procurement and Disbursements ......... .. ...... 39 Annexes: 4.1 Estimate of Costs ............ .. ............... 41 4.2 Implementation Schedule .......... .. ............ 42 4.3 Key Indicators for Project Supervision ......... 43 4.4 Estimated Schedule of Disbursements ........... . 44 V. BENEFITS AND RISKS ....................................... 45  Page No. VI. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATIONS .... ............... 46 VII. RELATED DOCUMENTS AND DATA AVAILABLE IN THE PROJECT FILE ............................................. 47 MAP: IBRD 12079   MADAGASCAR SECOND EDUCATION PROJECT GLOSSARY BEPC Brevet d'Etudes du Premier Cycle/Lower secondary school certificate BEPOTEP Bureau d'Etudes des Programmes et l'Organe Technique d'Elaboration des Programmes/ Curriculum Research and Development Bureau CAP Centre Academique Provincial/Regional Education Center CEG College d'Enseignement General/Lower secondary school CISCO Circonscription Scolaire/School District CNaPMaD Centre National pour la Production de Materiels Didactiques/National Teaching Materials Production Center FNDE Fonds National de Developpement Economique/ National Economic Development Fund Fokonolona Basic community grouping of villagers or urban dwellers Fokontany Locality inhabited by members of a fokonolona IEP Inspecteur de l'Enseignement Primaire/Inspector of Primary Education Lycee Secondary school offering both lower and upper secondary education SPE Service Provincial de l'Enseignement/ Regional Education Service   MADAGASCAR BASIC DATA (Est.) - 1974 General Area 590,000 km2 Population 9 million Per Capita Income FMG 36,000(us$l70 equivalent) Literacy Rate 40% Education Enrollments (incl. overaged students) Primary (grades 1-6) 1,040,000 - as a % of 6-11 age group 68% Lower secondary (grades 7-10) 100,000 - as a % of 12-15 age group 12% Upper secondary (grades 11-13) 23,000 - as a % of 16-18 age group 4% University (estimated full-time student equivalent) 9,000 - as a % of 19-22 age group 1% Recurrent expenditure of Ministry of Education FMG 10.8 billion - as a % of government recurrent expenditure 25% - as a % of GDP 3.1% Private expenditures on education (1972) FMG 5 billion External aid to education (1972) FMG 7 billion Total estimated expenditure on education and training as a % of GDP 6.7%   MADAGASCAR SECOND EDUCATION PROJECT STAFF PROJECT REPORT SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS PART I - THE EDUCATION SECTOR The Issues i. Although Madagascar achieved independence in 1960, the education and training system has not yet adapted itself to the needs of the country. A reform of the system has now begun. In the past, the goal at each level of instruction was to prepare the students for the next higher level. This was especially the case in the primary schools, where studies were over-literary, with an emphasis on French, the language of instruction in secondary schools. Primary education in turn has influenced secondary education, where most enrollments have been in literary rather than scientific courses. Greater attention will in future be given to instruction in Malagasy, the national language, and to practical subjects and scientific studies which relate more closely to the pupils' own environment. ii. Educational administration could be improved by decentraliza- tion. In the past the location in Tananarive of all the decision-making mechanisms has led to delays and has caused villagers to regard the schools as alien institutions. iii. Although only about 50 percent of primary school age children were attending school in 1974 and the pupil:teacher ratio in public primary schools was excessively high (74:1), the Government spent 25 percent of its budget on education. Despite the evident need for more teachers, the teacher training colleges were far from fully enrolled because the Government did not have the funds to employ the graduates. A very high proportion of expenditures goes to pay teachers' salaries, and primary schools lack the simplest materials such as books and pencils, while secondary schools lack equipment. iv. For these reasons and because of a rigid examination system, the repetition and dropout rates are high: on average less than three out of five primary school pupils are promoted to the next class at the end of the year. v. It is difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of the system in meeting manpower needs because of the lack of adequate statistics. There is no doubt, however, that the problem of "educated unemployed" is becoming increasingly serious: some 50,000 lower secondary leavers, of whom about 15,000 had a lower secondary school certificate, were reportedly unemployed  - ii - by the end of 1975. Furthermore, even on conservative estimates of secondary enrollment growth over the period from 1973 to 1985, about 170,000 young people will leave school with at least a lower secondary education, while the estimated number of jobs to be created requiring such levels of education is projected at only 85,000. Government Plans for the Sector vi. Government educational policy and plans calling for a radical change in the content and delivery system are contained in the National Develop- ment Plan 1974-1977 and in the Charter of the Malagasy Socialist Revolution of October 1975. The Plan stressed the "democratization" and "malagasization" of education and envisaged: (i) enrollment of all children aged 6-14 in schools by 1987; (ii) the reform of primary education by changing the course into a basic education course given in Malagasy and lasting five years; (iii) greater involvenent of village associations (fokonolona) in building primary scnools and Daying primary teachers salaries; (iv) use of National Servicemen as teachers; and (v)T a greater emphasis on scientif ific andtecniaia educ-arpr- The Charter endorsed the Plan, but considered universal basic education should be achieved much sooner by the enrollment of an additional million children in primary schools within three years. It also stressed the need to decentralize educational control and to provide for a technical lyceje, and ultimately a university center, in each province. vii. A new basic education curriculum was worked out in 1975, with Malagasy as the language of instruction and with emphasis on practical work and productive activities. Plans are in hand for in-service courses for existing teachers and a crash 3-month training course for lower secondary school graduates, who would then fulfill their National Service obligations by teaching in primary schools for at least two years. The Government intends to train 9,000 National Service teachers annually; 3,000 at a time. However, the existing teacher training facilities have a capacity of only about 1,200 for each 3-month course, for a total annual output of 3,600 and the use of secondary school facilities as proposed by the Government is likely to encounter opposition from parents and pupils. The Government has recently prepared a broad outline of its decentralization proposals and is now preparing detailed plans for implementation. viii. The Government's plans to change the delivery system by the use of National Servicemen as teachers should be given strong support. Since these teachers will be paid only one third of the salaries of regular teachers, their use will help lessen the financial burden mentioned above of attempting to achieve universal basic education for the six through eleven age group with a reasonable pupil:teacher ratio of 45:1. It is estimated this would be possible by 1985 by devoting about 28 percent of the recurrent budget to education, provided some 25,000 National Servicemen were used as teachers and that new regular teachers were recruited among successful National Servicemen. Since these new teachers would have had only limited training, they would be employed at two thirds of existing teachers' salaries. These projections envisage devoting 50 percent of educational expenditures to primary education, as at present. In view of financial constraints and the present overabundance  - iii - of secondary school leavers, it would be advisable to control secondary school expansion so that 55 percent of the education budget could be devoted to primary education. In this way, universal basic education could be achieved while keeping the total education budget down to 25 percent of the national budget. ix. The efforts to make basic education more relevant to local con- ditions and employment opportunities by the use of the national language, the employment as far as possible of teachers from the same locality as the school, the involvement of village associations in school construction and to some extent in school control are also steps in the right direction. They represent the new philosophy of development from the bottom up rather than from the top down. An essential element in this process is the decentraliza- tion of educational control from Tananarive to the regions, as envisaged in the Charter. x. To help improve scientific and technical education and to provide more adequate equipment in secondary schools, the Government proposes to build a Teaching Materials Production Center in Tananarive. This Center would also assist Regional Education Centers in each provincial capital outside Tananarive in the production of prototype materials for use in primary schools. These developments are designed to improve educational quality and should be comple- mented by increasing the frequency of inspectorate visits to schools and by the provision of other fundamental teaching aids such as books. PART II - THE PROJECT Objectives xi. The proposed project would assist the Government to decentralize educational control and to improve the quality of basic education. The project's emphasis is on institution building and quality improvement rather than expansion, though by training National Servicemen as teachers the pro- posed proi-ect will provide for an increase in primary education enrollments. xii. Specifically, the proposed project would include: (a) the provision of buildings, furniture and equipment for the following institutions: i) ie Regional Education Centers, together with vehicles for the schooT inspectorate; and ii) one National Teaching Materials Production Center; (b) textbook development;  - iv - (c) technical assistance for: i) the National Teaching Materials Production Center in its initial operating stages; ii) the statistical section of the Ministry of Education; iii) project evaluation; and (d) pre-investment studies for future projects. xiii. The proposed project was identified by an IDA mission which visited Madagascar in March/April 1974 to review educational development plans and priorities. The project was prepared by the Government with assistance from UNESCO, and the project was appraised by IDA missions in December 1975 and June 1976. Negotiations were held in Washington from September 15 to September 17, 1976. The Malagasy delegation was led by Mr. Henri Raharijaona, Madagascar's Ambassador to France. Five Regional Education Centers xiv. The Ministry of Education is represented in each of the regional capitals by a Regional Education Service, dealing mainly with primary educa- tion and handling such matters as accounts, audio-visual education, bur- saries, counselling, and enforcement of education regulations. As a part of its decentralization plans, the Government intends to upgrade these Ser- vices into Regional Education Centers (Centres Academiques Provinciaux), which would in addition assume responsibility for other levels and types of education in the Regions (Section 3.02, draft Development Credit Agreement). The main advantages which are expected from this decentralization include: (i) a more rapid and relevant response to regional needs, and (ii) better coordination at the local level with other services such as health and agriculture. The definition of the functions and responsibilities of the Regional Education Centers in a Decree by the Ministry of Education would be a condition of effectiveness of the proposed credit (Section 5.01(a), draft Development Credit Agreement). xv. In a country of Madagascar's size and diversity, this decentraliza- tion of educational administration is essential to carry out the programs for expansion of basic education through community efforts, to plan for the training and deployment of the National Servicemen and to provide them with adequate professional support and advice. The Government has recently com- pleted a broad outline of its plans for educational decentralization, and has agreed, within one year of signing the Development Credit Agreement, to provide detailed implementation proposals to the Association, including information on the autonomy of its provincial services and future teacher appointments (Section 4.03, draft Development Credit Agreement). xvi. The project would provide accommodation for a Regional Education Center in each regional capital outside Tananarive - i.e., in Diego Suarez, Fianarantsoa, Majunga, Tamatave and Tulear. Each Center would also provide  120 places for training lower secondary school certificate holders as teachers in fulfillment of their National Service obligations; 60 percent of the Center facilities would be for training and 40 percent for administration. The training would las V hree months-and9,be given by educational counsellors/ inspectors who have al en special instruction in the aims and methods of the reform at seminars held in Tananarive. In-service courses for existing teachers would be given during school vacations. A workshop would be included in the facilities where training would be given in making simple primary school teaching aids from locally available materials. xvii. There are 95 sub-prefectures responsible for day-to-day school supervision and inspection. They are administered by school districts under the direction of the Regional Education Services. The sub-prefectures have inadequate transportation facilities and the project would supply one vehicle for each of them in order to increase the number of school visits. An improvement in the inspectorate back-up services to the schools would rein- force the implementation of the educational reform, and help the National Service teachers, who would have had only 3 months of training. National Teaching Materials Production Center xviii. The great majority of the 126 public secondary schools in Madagascar lack the equipment necessary to teach scientific and practical subjects. Imported equipment is expensive and often oversophisticated. Based on costs of imported equipment, it is estimated that to equip the schools reasonably would cost about US$5 million equivalent, and annual equipment replacement costs would be US$500,000. By producing equipment locally as far as possible, these costs could be reduced by up to 50 percent. The proposed project would build in Tananarive a National Teaching Materials Production Center, including an adequate machine shop, electrical shop and fitting facilities to enable a wide range of scientific equipment to be manufactured. The Center would be designed so that, after experience is gained, it could be expanded to meet the needs of all the secondary schools, including private schools. The Center would provide facilities for training teachers in the use of the equipment and new accommodation for the Curriculum Research and Development Bureau of the Ministry of Education. It would also design primary school equipment and make prototypes with instruction sheets for distribution to the Regional Education Centers. The National Teaching Materials Production Center was legally established in September 1976. xix. The Government has agreed that the Center will be adequately staffed and provided with sufficient funds for the purchase of materials and general operations (Section 3.03, draft Development Credit Agreement). Technical assistance in the setting up and during the initial operations of the Center is essential and the proposed project would include finance for a 6-man technical assistance team. It may not be necessary to seek all of these experts abroad as some of Madagascar's light engineering industries already employ suitably experienced persons who could fill the required positions. The Government has agreed that qualified experts will be employed on terms and conditions acceptable to the Association (Section 3.06, draft  - vi - Development Credit Agreement). The appointment of the production/industrial engineer and the design expert of the technical assistance team would be a condition of effectiveness of the proposed credit (Section 5.01 (b), draft Development Credit Agreement). Fellowships to train Malagasy staff abroad would also be provided under the proposed project. Textbook Development xx. With regard to teaching aids, primary schools in Madagascar are even more poorly equipped than secondary schools: most of them lack books, pencils and paper. A new basic education curriculum has been developed and is presently being adapted into syllabus material, student and teacher guides, which will be given a more permanent textbook form after an experi- mental period. The project would supply part of the paper needed for this work and would help the institutions with textbook development and distribu- tion by providing adequate premises for the Curriculum Research and Devel- opment Bureau and transport to the schools: over the period of the project some four million student guides and textbooks would be produced in Malagasy for the main subject areas of Malagasy, mathematics, environmental studies and practical work. The texts would be written by qualified staff under the supervision of the Curriculum Research and Development Bureau and printed by the educational books section of the National Press, which has excel- lent printing and book production equipment. The printed material would be delivered to schools by educational counsellors/inspectors, who would also instruct the teachers in its use. Educational Statistics, Planning and Evaluation xxi. Educational planning in Madagascar suffers from an inadequate base, both in regard to educational statistics and to information on the numbers, types and locations of school buildings. The project would provide technical assistance to help rationalize the system within the framework of the Government's decentralization plans. It would also provide funds for the ongoing evaluation of the project and for visits by government staff concerned with the project to other countries whose experience would be relevant to the Madagascar situation. The Government has confirmed that proposals for the evaluation studies regarding the administration and management of the education sector at the provincial level, school curricula and the Government's teacher training program for the National Servicemen will be prepared and sent to the Association for review within 12 months of signing the Development Credit Agreement (Section 3.07, draft Development Credit Agreement). Project Cost and Financing xxii The total estimated cost of the proposed project is US$17.5 million equivalent, excluding taxes estimated at US$1.8 million, with a foreign ex- change component of US$9.1 million. The proposed IDA credit of US$14 million would finance 80 percent of the total project cost net of taxes and would cover the entire foreign exchange cost and US$4.9 million of local expenditures. The Government would finance the remaining project cost. A summary cost table and the proposed financing plan are as follows:  - vii - Summary Cost Table (including Taxes) US$ (Millions)------ Local Foreign Total % of Total 1. Regional Education Centers, National Teaching Materials Production Center, and Textbook Development 5.77 5.39 11.16 58 2. Architectural/Engineering Services, Technical Assistance, Project Evaluation and Administration 1.08 1.18 2.26 12 3. Contingencies: Physical and Price Increases 3.29 2.55 5.84 30 Total Project Cost 10.14 9.12 19.26 100 -- of which taxes 1.78 - 1.78 9 Financing Plan (excluding taxes) IDA Credit 4.88 9.12 14.00 80 Government Contribution 3.48 - 3.48 20 8.36 9.12 17.48 100 Project Implementation xxiii. A project implementation unit has been set up in the Ministry of Public Works. At full strength, it would comprise a director, a construc- tion coordinator and an education liaison officer, and adequate supporting staff (Section 3.04, draft Development Credit Agreement). The director, construction coordinator and education liaison officer have already been appointed. Madagascar-based architectural consultants have been appointed. Sketch designs for the Regional Eduction Centers have been reviewed by the Association. The consultants are preparing final designs and will also be responsible for the supervision of construction. Sketch design for the National Teaching Materials Production Center will be prepared after the recruitment of technical assistance personnel for the planning and operation of the center. Procurement and Disbursements xxiv. Contracts for civil works, furniture, equipment and materials, including paper, costing more than US$50,000 equivalent would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding. Contracts costing less  - viii - than US$50,000 equivalent would be awarded on the basis of local competitive bidding procedures, which have been reviewed by the Association and are considered satisfactory. The aggregate amount of these contracts is not expected to exceed US$500,000 equivalent and the Association's review of tender evaluation documents in respect of such contracts prior to award would not be necessary. Items would be grouped under arrangements satisfactory to the Association so as to encourage competition and bulk procurement. Where international competitive bidding procedures are used, qualified domestic civil works contractors would be allowed a margin of preference of 7-1/2 percent over the tender prices of competitors, and domestic manufacturers of furniture and equipment would be allowed a preference of 15 percent, or the existing rate of customs duties, whichever is lower, over the c.i.f. price of competing suppliers. xxv. Disbursements would be made on the basis of (a) 65 percent of total expenditures for civil works; (b) 100 percent of foreign expenditures for directly imported furniture, instructional equipment, vehicles and materials; 100 percent of ex-factory cost of these items when locally manufactured; or 80 percent of local expenditures when otherwise procured locally; (c) 100 percent of foreign expenditures and 50 percent of local expenditures for technical assistance, fellowships and project evaluation; (d) 80 percent of total administrative and operational expenditures; and (e) 80 percent of total expenditures for architectural engineering consultants' services. Disburse- ments would be fully documented, except disbursements for (d). These would be against certificates of expenditures, documentation for which would not be submitted for review, but would be retained by the borrower and be available for inspection by the Association during the course of project supervision. xxvi. Retroactive reimbursement of a sum not exceeding US$200,000 equiva- lent for expenditures approved by the Association and incurred after March 1, 1976 is recommended for: (i) the services of consultant architects for the preparation of sketch plans for the project institutions; (ii) Project Unit expenditures; and (iii) technical assistance for the National Teaching Mate- rials Production Center (Schedule 1, paragraph 4, draft Development Credit Agreement). Benefits and Risks xxvii. Fundamental changes must be made in the content of education and its delivery if the educational and training system of Madagascar is to meet the needs of mass participation in development. The emphasis of the proposed project is on helping implement these changes. Educational quality and relevance at the primary level would be provided by training facilities for National Service teachers, whose employment would enable the excessive number of pupils per teacher to be reduced, and by assisting inspectorate visits to schools and the production of new curricula and textbooks. Secondary edu- cation would be improved by encouraging the local production of equipment and by training teachers in its use. The local administration of education would be assisted by the provision of decentralized facilities. The proposed project would train some 1,800 National Service teachers a year, or 20 percent of the total number required; it would provide a textbook and student guide in  - ix - each main study area for about one million primary pupils and about half the estimated equipment needs of secondary schools in Madagascar. xxviii. The principal risks re]ate to an incomplete definition of the Government's plans for educational decentralization and to its lack of expe- rience in managing a teaching materials production center. There is a risk that the teaching facilities in the regional education centers may, for instance, be used for administrative purposes, and that the materials pro- duction center would function inefficiently. Attempts have been made to minimize these risks by requesting the Government to furnish detailed pro- posals for the implementation of the decentralization plans (see para. xv above) and by providing technical assistance for the production center. In addition all items will be monitored closely.   I. DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN RESOURCES Socio-Economic Background 1.01 Madagascar is an island in the Indian Oceae about 400 km. off the southeast coast of Africa with an area of 592,000 km . which is slightly larger than France. The population, however, is only about nine million and very unevenly distributed with an average density of 15 people per km . The climate and physical features vary greatly from the hot tropical lowland coastal areas to the cooler sub-tropical conditions of the central highlands where the capital of Tananarive is located. The topography often makes over- land travel difficult. 1.02 The population is composed of 18 ethnic groups of mixed Asian and African origin. All speak Malagasy, the national language, but the different, though mutually understandable, dialects spoken throughout the island accen- tuate the ethnic differences. Despite the fact that all groups share similar cultural traditions, there are social and political rivalries between the highland and the coastal peoples. The highland people are economically and culturally more advanced. 1.03 There are marked inequalities in income between regions. Whereas areas such as Tananarive are quite developed, many areas are almost com- pletely underdeveloped with widespread poverty, poor nutrition, high infant mortality and limited opportunity for education or advancement. The rich cultivated land of the high plateau provides a striking contrast with the arid southern region where the population barely subsists. 1.04 Madagascar has a pronounced dual economy divided between a small modern sector and the traditional rural sector. Overall per capita income was estimated at US$170 in 1974, but even in this good year for agriculture, the average rural per capita income was estimated at less than US$100. Real GDP, which had increased by 5% per annum between 1966 and 1971, has not increased during the last four years, and per capita GDP has thus declined. Agriculture supports 85% of the population and is the source of about 80% of foreign exchange earnings. The failure of rice production to expand as fast as the population and an inadequate marketing system have led to a need for considerable rice imports causing foreign exchange reserves to fall to a critical level. The effects of the generally weak performance of the Malagasy economy have been exacerbated by a worsening in the terms of trade during recent years. National and Regional Administration 1.05 For administrative purposes, Madagascar is divided into 6 provinces, 18 prefectures, 95 sub-prefectures and over 200 cantons. However, control is highly centralized in Tananarive. Although a governor is the chief executive of each province and is responsible for the provincial administration, all policy decisions are made in Tananarive and are mostly carried out by the regional representatives of the principal ministries (education, agriculture, public works, health, etc.) at the provincial and prefectural levels. Until  - 2 - 1973, a provincial budget financed the basic expenses of local administration as well as primary education, health services and secondary and tertiary roads. Although the taxes were levied by the provincial officials, they had no authority to de^cide 6 tource of revenue otne rovinc al budget-was the tax on adult males and a tax on cattle; these unpopular taxes were abolished in 1973 when the central govern- ment assumed the responsibility of financing all elements previously covered by the provincial budgets. 1.06 In 1972, in line with its socialist objectives to promote develop- ment and decision-making from the bottom up, the Government undertook a major reorientation of local administration through a reform of local government. The new system is based on the traditional community, the fokonolona and when the reform is completed, there will be a four tier hierarchy of representative institutions that will ultimately replace the current administrative hierarchy based on the ench administrative system (province, prefecture, sub-prefecture, canton, comp ne). As a first step in the reform, the administrative functions of the c munes (the lowest level in the hicrarchy) were dissolved in 1973 as villag throughout Madagascar began organizing themselves into fokonolona whic group an average of three villages each. Naturally, the specifications details of the reform will evolve over time and it will take several years before the reform is fully completed. Decentralization of Government Structure 1.07 The major aims of the Government embodied in the National Development Plan 1974-77 place great emphasis on a broad strategy for fundamental reform of Malagasy society and government administration. The basic objective is to create a socialist and democratic system at all levels of political, admin- istrative and economic decision-making and to ensure the participation of the people in all aspects of development. 1.08 /- A fokonolona is a basic community grouping of between 500 and 2,000 vil),xgers or urban dwellers and the fokontany is the locality inhabited by is community. The formal organization of the 10,000 fokonolona which began in 1973 is nearly complete in the rural areas and was started in the urban areas during 1975. The powers and responsibilities of the fokonolona are articulated at length in Ordinance 73009 of August 3, 1973 and include jurisdiction over public order, land questions, mutual assistance, primary education, public health, regulation of social disputes, and general economic and development matters. The fokonolona has no formal budget but can make collections from its members for development purposes and borrow money. Its members elect an executive committee of seven to fifteen people to represent them and assume basic administrative functions. Sub-committees are elected to deal with individual sectors. The treasurer who serves on the executive committee and the economic sub-committee (vatoeka) handles the community bank account and provides annual financial statements to the National Treasury. In 1975 the fokonolona throughout Madagascar had nearly FMG 2 billion in savings, unevenly divided between regions. Revenue is raised by selling the agricultural products grown in the communal plot and by charging a commission for handling the sale of the produce grown by  - 3 - individuals. This has to some extent taken the place of the head and cattle tax. The vatoeka stores the agricultural products and sells them to the state marketing 'gan a a 1 ion w has agents at the local level. Many vatoeka ha,& itrtaken various deve opment projects such as the con- struction of Troads, communal buildings anJ small irrigation projects. Approximiately 3,000 primary schools had s$een built by the end of 1975. 1.09 Ti< second level in thi" Kerarchy is the firaisam-pokonolona, whose organizatYc -was"ag-ur i'1n late 1973. Between five to ten fokonolona in assembly designate representatives to the firaisam-pokonolona, which cor- responds in size roughly to the former communes. Organization of the third and fourth level institutions has yet to begin. The third level in the new hierarchy will be the fivondronam-pokonolona, corresponding roughly to the current sub-prefecture. Members of this body will be elected by the firaisam-pokonolona and it will have a formal budget. The national ministries will have field offices at this level, and there will be a technical committee that will assist the representatives on technical matters. The fourth level will be the faritany, the primary function of which will be the administration of economic development activities. The faritany will be elected by consti- tuent fivondronam-pokonolona, and its jurisdiction will correspond roughly to that of the current prefectures. The faritany will have development budgets and will have authority to raise revenues and borrow. 1.10 The Charter of the Malagasy Socialist Revolution, published in October 1975, supports the objectives of the Plan, and calls for an urgent change from an overcentralized government administration to a decentralized structure with the fokonolona as its base. The Charter elaborates on the responsibilities and the functions of the fokonolona which is considered as the key to successful implementation of the three main objectives of the Malagasy socialist revolution. The Charter gives particular emphasis to: (i) rural development to increase incomes and services in the poorest areas; (ii) land reform to redistribute the land requiring organization of farmers into cooperatives; (iii) greater direct state participation in commerce and industry; and (iv) basic education. 1.11 Administration of all government services as well as decision- making responsibility is being decentralized. However, given the fact that the present Government has been in office only since June 1975, details about the implementation of the decentralization measures have yet to be finalized, especially regarding the degree of supervision, control and assistance the central authorities will eventually exercise. Employment Trends 1.12 The results of the first national census will be published in 1976, giving Madagascar a set of comprehensive data on population and employment. The population is estimated to be nine million with an active population of rather more than four million which is increasing at a rate of 2.5% p.a. In 1973, 80% of the labor force was in the rural sector, mostly in self- employment. According to the National Development Plan 1974-77, wage employ- ment in 1973 was 573,000 or 14% of the labor force distributed as follows:  - 4 - Wage Employment 1973 Sector Employees Agriculture 145,000 Industry 109,000 Construction 46,000 Government 99,000 Other Services 174,000 573,000 1.13 The Plan projected an increase of 58,000 new salaried jobs during the period 1973-1977. In the light of the poor performance of GDP since the formulation of the Plan, Bank Group staff have made revised projections. It is now estimated that about 40,000 new jobs will be created during this period, with an additional 6,000 jobs becoming vacant by 1977 due to malagasization. Wage employment would thus grow by only 11,000 p.a. while the active population would increase by 100,000 each year. Nearly 90% of the entrants to the labor force would thus not be able to find wage employment. This slow growth of the economy is due to: (i) the stagnation in agricultural output; (ii) the sharp drop in the investment rate causing a virtual standstill in the construction sector and other industries; and (iii) the slowdown in the growth of the public sector. 1/ 1.14 In the longer term, and assuming a real growth rate of GDP and wage employment of 4.5% p.a. from 1977-1985, about 260,000 new jobs would be created during the 1977-85 period. However, the active population is expected to increase by nearly one million from 1977-1985 and consequently, long-term wage employment opportunities will not improve greatly. About 75% of the people joining the labor force between 1977 and 1985 will have to derive their livelihood from self-employment in the rural sector. Educated Manpower Need and Supply 1.15 Due to the lack of reliable data, it is difficult to estimate educated manpower requirements. Of the 300,000 new salaried jobs which are expected to be created between 1973 and 1985 (paras. 1.13 and 1.14), it is estimated that one-third would need at least a primary education, and of these, one-half would need at least a lower secondary education. The total needs, including those arising from malagasization, death and retirement, and those in the non-wage sector are estimated as follows: 1/ The number of government employees which had been increasing has levelled off since 1972.  1973-1985 Educated Manpower Needs Due to At least primary At least lower secondary 1. Wage employment (i) New employment 100,000 50,000 (ii) Malagasization 10,000 10,000 (iii) Death and retirement 50,000 25,000 2. Non-wage employment 50,000 210,000 85,000 1.16 While these figures must be regarded as indicative only of orders of magnitude due to the weak statistical base, it thus appears that the Malagasy economy will have an annual need of only some 7-8,000 graduates with at least a lower secondary certificate. However, not only is it esti- mated that some 50,000 lower secondary leavers are at present unemployed of whom 15,000-b-rhold-a--f wecon-ri-c-io=-ce-r--ut-TEV- fenwi--output of the university and secondary levels alone is 17,500 1/: lower secondary - 14,000 p.a.; upper secondary - 3,000 p.a.; university - 500 p.a. This output is steadily increasing. In addition, about 37,000 students a year complete the six years of primary education but do not continue their education. Salaries are often linked to educational qualifications and employers can often find workers without formal qualifications who are willing to work for much less than the "qualified" school leavers. The numbeX_u;f__Pj"Q."e n- employed is thus likely to continue to grow, involving high social and 6conomiccot Conclusions 1.17 This overview of development issues in Madagascar points to the following implications for manpower and human resources: (a) the organization, management and planning of the sector should be aligned with the new government structure centered on the fokonolona and featuring a large degree of decentralization (paras. 1.07-1.11); (b) as the large majority of the school leavers would continue to find employment outlets only in the agricultural sector (paras. 1.13, 1.14), the content and the medium of instruction should prepare them for productive participation in rural communities; and 1/ Defined as all persons leaving school or university regardless of whether they obtained a diploma or certificate.  - 6 - (c) expansion of outputs from secondary and post-secondary education needs to be strictly controlled (para. 1.16). II. THE EDUCATION AND TRAINING SECTOR Administrative Structure 2.01 The administrative structure of the Ministry of National Educa- tion is given in Chart 2.1. This Ministry now controls all levels of the educational system, but the Directorate of Higher Education was estab- lished in the Ministry as recently as 1974. Educational control is very centralized. The Ministry is represented in the six provincial capitals by a Regional Education Service (Service Provincial de l'Enseignement - SPE), which ensures that the policies of the central authorities are carried out. The SPEs are headed by an Inspector of Primary Education and are concerned mainly with primary education; however, even at this level the SPE has no power to appoint teachers. 2.02 Other Ministries have responsibilities for training personnel in their own specialized fields, e.g., the Ministry of Public Works runs a center for workmen and commercial employees; the Ministry of Rural Devel- opment trains agricultural technicians. The Ministry of the Interior is responsible for training village (fokonolona) leaders and runs literacy campaigns in the country; with the future emphasis on decentralization, it is expected that these programs for the fokonolona will increase in importance. Structure of the Education System 2.03 This is given in Chart 2.2. The present system comprises a six- year primary course officially beginning at age six; however, many small schools in rural areas only offer a four-year course. Lower secondary education given in colleges and the more prestigious lycees lasts four years and upper secondary (given only in the lycees) three. Higher education courses last from two to six years. Under a new structure being developed by the Government, the primary level of education would last five years; lower level secondary education would last four years and the upper level three. Higher education courses are likely to comprise three modules of two years each. The planning for these changes is at a very early stage, but a new five-year primary curriculum has already been developed. Content of Education 2.04 Although Madagascar achieved independence in 1960, little change in curriculum content had been made by 1972, and progress since then has been slow due to the rapid political changes. Primary education has - emphasized French, the language of instruction in secondary sCo s, d the primary curriculum has been largely a preparation for khe examinatioW } to enter secondary schools. The curriculum has thus been \ver-literary. ,'  - 7 - The time allocated for practical work remained at less than 10% between 1955 and 1973, and science and environmental studies have also been neglected. 2.05 At the secondary and higher levels, the system has followed closely the French pattern with a view to the maintenance of the equivalence of the baccalaureate and university degrees. The different and compartmentalized baccalaureate options have frequently led to uneconomically sized classes. There has been a concentration on arts subjects and law and a relative neglect of scientific and technical studies. Enrollment Growth 2.06 Educational statistics in Madagascar are subject to considerable degrees of uncertainty. Primary enrollments in 1974 totalled just over a million; after increasing by over 7% annually from 1966-1972, they have remained substantially constant over the last two years. Enrollments are equivalent to about 68% of the primary school age group but because of the large number of overaged children, probably less than 50% of primary school age children are in fact attending school. About 20% of the enroll- ment is in private schools. Annex 2.1 gives details of the growth in enrollments between 1966 and 1974 and Chart 2.3 the 1974 education pyramid. 2.07 General secondary enrollments totalled 115,000 in 1974, of which about 20,000 in the upper cycle. They more than doubled between 1966 and 1972 (an average increase of 12-1/2% p.a.) and are continuing to increase at about 4% annually. About one-half the enrollment is in private schools. Vocational and technical secondary schools had an enrollment of about 8,000 in 1974. Total lower secondary enrollments amounted to 12% of the age group, and upper secondary 4.2%. With the introduction of a credit system (unites de valeur) and part-time studies into the University in 1973, total enrollments are difficult to estimate; the full-time student equivalent in 1974 was about 9,000, some 1% of the age group, of whom over 6,000 were in the first two years. University enrollments have increased rapidly in recent years, having more than doubled between 1970 and 1974. Education Finance 2.08 From 1961 to 1971 the annual growth rate of public recurrent expenditure in current prices was 10.5%, 2.3% higher than that of GDP and 2.9% higher than total recurrent expenditures. This rapid increase reflected mainly the considerable increase in both primary and secondary enrollments during the period. Growth in these enrollments has levelled off since 1972, but recurrent educational expenditures have continued to rise by over 11% p.a. in current prices, mainly due to inflation. In 1974, as is seen from the table below, these expenditures amounted to 25% of total government recurrent expenditures, or 3.1% of GDP. Annex 2.2 gives more details.  - 8 - Recurrent Educational Expenditures in Relation to GDP & Total Recurrent Expenditures 1972-76 (in billions of FMG) 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 (est.) (budget) 1. GDP (current prices) 272.0 288.0 351.0 389.0 434.0 2. Total Government Recurrent Expenditures 42.1 40.5 42.9 47.0 62.0 - of which Provincial Expenditures 6.1 - - - - 3. Total Government Recurrent Educational Expenditures 8.7 9.8 10.8 11.0 15.5 - of which Provincial Expenditures 4.6 - - - (3) as % of (1) 3.2 3.4 3.1 2.8 3.6 (3) as % of (2) 21 24 25 23 25 2.09 Total educational recurrent expenditures, both private and public, are however much greater than these figures would indicate. In 1972, the last year for which the relevant data are available, expenditures on private educa- tion were estimated at FMG 5 billion and external aid amounted to some FMG 7 billion, reflecting the high salaries paid to foreigners. The total 1974 expenditure on education is thus likely to have amounted to about 7% of GDP, a comparatively high figure in view of the high primary pupil:teacher ratio and the relatively low primary enrollment ratio. 2.10 Government capital investments in education in 1974 totalled FMG 1.7 billion, or 13% of the amount expended under the National Economic Development Fund. Primary education was relatively neglected; it received less than one-fifth of the amount spent. Nor have foreign aid agencies made any important investments in education since 1972. 2.11 The total 1974 government capital and recurrent expenditures on education thus totalled FMG 12.5 billion, amounting to 22.1% of total govern- ment expenditures. This is somewhat above the median for African countries and the upper quartile for the world as is seen from the table of Comparative Education Indicators annexed. 2.12 No fees are paid in public sector schools at any level, although in certain cases payments are made by parents to employ teachers additional to those on the government establishment. The costs to the Government in 1974 amounted to about FMG 7,000 per pupil in primary school, FMG 20,000 in first cycle secondary, FMG 80,000 in second cycle secondary, and over FMG 100,000 in technical and professional courses. The annual cost per university student is estimated at between FMG 300,000 and FMG 400,000  - 9 - or over ten times the per capita income. 1/ These costs are relatively high except in the case of primary education where the pupil-teacher ratio is excessively high. As will be elaborated below, teachers' salaries absorb a very high percentage of recurrent funds and insufficient amounts are avail- able for teaching aids and equipment. Problems of the System 2.13 In the pre-independence period and in the years immediately afterwards, the main aim of the school system was to produce white collar workers for the modern sector, particularly for employment in government. Stress was laid on French, and studies in the local language were neglected. Insufficient attention was paid to practical work and scientific studies with the result that the country became largely dependent on expatriates in these areas. This bias towards a literary formation was followed even in the 4-year primary schools'in riural areas (para. 2.03) whose pupils have onl minimal possibilities of entering sgnAr scnoQis. They thus received an education wich alienated them from village life A Bcause of this some parents are reluctant to send their children to schoI > However, the new ' Government<i^_acutel>>wgrerioF -ienemS'toE transform the system so that it will provide the human resources needed to build a self-reliant socialist society and promote mass participation in development. 2.14 Another major problem confronting the education system is that of administration and management. This problem has two aspects - first is the lack of capable and experienced personnel, and second an overcentraliza- tion of decision-making in Tananarive. The first is a natural result of the departure of French administrators. This problem should steadily resolve itself as Malagasy personnel gain experience. More stability in staffing would assist: the present turnover of staff in the Ministry of Education is much too high for effective administration. With the return to greater political stability, this problem is likely to be resolved. Improved methods for the collection and analysis of educational and financial statistics would enable the planning unit of the Ministry of Education to function more effectively. 2.15 The overcentralization of decision-making in Tananarive is such that the appointment of every primary school teacher and the program of studies have to be approved by the central ministry: where secondary school teachers are concerned, not only do the central authorities decide on appointment but also on the individual school to which the teacher will be assigned. This has led to the following problems: (i) the primary schools are regarded as alien institutions by the villagers; (ii) the existing animosities and suspicions between the highland and coastal peoples are exacerbated; (iii) it is difficult to adapt national policies to particular local conditions and 1/ This is approximately the norm for countries of the Eastern Africa Region (9.25 times the GNP per capita). The range is considerable - from twice the GNP per capita in Mauritius to 34 times in Tanzania.  - 10 - this has led to a lack of communication and coordination with other services at the local level; and (iv) capable administrators in the provinces become very dissatisfied with their lack of responsibility and constantly seek transfer to Tananarive. 2.16 The cost and financing of education are also problems. As indicated above, although only some 50% of the primary school age group is enrolled in schools and there are on average 74 pupils per teacher in the public schools, educational recurrent expenditures already account for some 25% of total government expenditure. The burden of educational expenditure is thus heavy; unless drastic changes are made in the delivery system, it is likely to increase as efforts are made to achieve universal basic education while maintaining the proportion of students going on to secondary education. 2.17 Mainly because of this financial stringency, the pupil:teacher ratio in public primary schools is extremely high, nearly 74:1. Effective teaching with such large numbers at this level is not possible granted the conditions in the schools, and as a result the educational base of the country is extremely weak. Many of the primary schools in rural areas have only one classroom and the same teacher teaches different groups (usually two groups of two classes each) in the morning and afternoon: this system is probably more effective than to attempt whole day schooling for an over- large group. In the private primary schools the pupil:teacher ratio is a more reasonable 41:1. Despite the evident need for more teachers, the teacher training colleges in 1974 were far from fully enrolled because the Government did not have the funds to employ the graduates. By the end of 1975, they enrolled no students whatever because of the Government's plans to use them to train National Servicemen as teachers. In contrast to the primary level, pupil:teacher ratios in secondary schools are reasonable; in fact, this ratio is low (19:1) in the public second cycle schools because of the existence of uneconomically small classes in some schools as a result of the various baccalaureate options (para. 2.05). 2.18 At both primary and secondary levels the supply of teaching aids is grossly inadequate. Most primary schools lack the simplest materials such as books and pencils, while secondary schools lack equipment. At the primary level, 96% of the expenditures go to meet teachers' salaries, indicating that the schools receive virtually no funds for maintenance and teaching materials. Because of the centralized control, the villagers are not in- clined to help maintain the schools, and the SPEs feel they have no power over and hence responsibility for school maintenance and the supply of teaching aids. Secondary general schools (where 90% of recurrent costs are accounted for by teachers' salaries) and technical and vocational schools (85%) generally suffer from a lack of equipment and inadequate maintenance. 2.19 The statistics on dropout and repetition rates are shown below:  - 11 - AVERAGE PRIMARY SCHOOL PROMOTION, REPEATER AND DROPOUT RATES (as % of Grade Enrollment) Prior to 1972 1972-1974 Grade Promotion Repeater Dropout Promotion Repeater Dropout Rate Rate Rate Rate Rate Rate 1 (100) 41 10 (100) 29 25 2 49 27 10 46 17 19 3 63 25 12 64 16 21 4 63 26 19 63 19 29 5 55 19 9 52 12 14 6 72 30 30 74 24 31 (7) 40 45 Average 57 28 15 57 20 23 It will be seen from both tables that less than three out of five students in any year are promoted to the next class. Because of this, it has been estimated that the actual costs of producing a primary school leaver with a certificate are more than three times what they could be. Dropout and repeater rates in secondary education are also high and it has been cal- culated that the costs of producing a lower secondary graduate are some ten times those theoretically necessary. The effectiveness of the system in meeting manpower needs has been discussed in paras. 1.15 and 1.16, which indicates that the output of secondary school leavers has exceeded needs considerably. Government Plans for the Sector 2.20 These are contained in the National Development Plan 1974-1977 whose main planks are those of "democratization" and "malagasization", and are described at some length in the President's Charter of the Malagasy Socialist Revolution of October 1975. The Charter stressed "decentralization" as an aspect of democratization and the important role that education had to play in the achievement of the Malagasy socialist revolution. The democratization policy aims at giving basic education to all and equal chances of continuing education; that of decentralization recognizes that educational control and the provision of facilities have been overcentralized in Tananarive; the policy of malagasization seeks to achieve a harmony between educational content and delivery system, on the one hand, and the principles of the revolution on the other, and, in particular, lays stress on the development of education in the national language.  - 12 - 2.21 The Plan envisaged the following developments: (a) enrollment of all children aged 6-14 in schools by 1987; (b) the existing primary education system to be replaced as soon as possible by a new reformed basic education course - education de base - given mainly in Malagasy and lasting five years; (c) the building of basic education schools and the payment of teachers in the first grades by village associations (fokonolona) assisted by the Government; (d) the use of unemployed lower secondary school graduates to teach the first three years of the basic education course in fulfillment of their National Service obliga- tions; and (e) public secondary and higher education to be developed in relation to the country's manpower needs and with greater emphasis on technical subjects. It is envisaged that 40% of primary school leavers would go on to secondary schools (about the same proportion as now finds places) and that the remaining 60% would be given some form of post-primary schooling. Thus, drastic changes in the delivery system (c) and (d) and content (b) are seen as the prerequisite to achieving mass education (a) and (e). 2.22 Implementation of the Plan has been slow due largely to the rapid political changes. Primary school enrollments have increased much less rapidly than was envisaged when the Plan was written. However, a new cur- ricula for the basic education course using the local language as the medium of instruction has been developed by the Curriculum Research and Development Bureau. French will be taught as a second language from the second year onward; the proportion of time spent in practical work will be nearly doubled, and increased emphasis laid on simple science related to the pupils' own environment. This new curriculum has been approved by the Ministry. In order to implement the curriculum through a new delivery system, plans are also in hand for a crash 3-month teacher training course for lower secondary school graduates who would then fulfill their National Service obligations by teaching in primary schools for at least two years. 2.23 The Charter generally endorses the Plan's proposals, but considers that universal basic education should be achieved much more rapidly than the Plan envisaged: the Charter speaks of enrolling an additional one million pupils in primary schools within the next three years. Following the publica- tion of the Charter, the Ministry of Education now hopes to train 18,000 National Servicemen as teachers over the next two years. The Charter also  - 13 - lays more stress on decentralization: in addition to the construction of Regional Education Centers in each Region (already envisaged in the Plan) and of a Teaching Materials Production Center in Tananarive, it is intended to create a technical lycee in each provincial capital, and to extend univer- sity level education in the Regions also. Following the endorsement of the new constitution by the referendum of December 1975, intensive efforts are being made by the Ministry of Education to put the new policies into effect: since January 1976 seminars have been conducted by the main divisions (primary, secondary, technical, and higher education) to reorient education inspectors, counsellors and teachers in the new education content and delivery system. Teachers guides have been drawn up and student guides and other teaching materials are being elaborated. Assessment of Government Plans 2.24 Taken by and large, the Government plans represent a bold and imaginative approach to the problems of educational development in Madagascar. The new basic education curriculum with Malagasy as the language of instruc- tion should certainly respond better to Madagascar's needs than the old curriculum; however, it will need to be revised as experience is gained in its use. Further, the problems of introducing this 5-year curriculum into small one-classroom schools in rural areas need further study. This done, it should be possible to resolve some of the problems mentioned in para. 2.13. 2.25 Granted the size and difficulties in communications in Madagascar, the decentralization of educational control is an essential element of any strategy based on a large degree of community involvement and designed to reorientate the system. It would also help in the solution of the problems indicated in para. 2.15. Although the Government's decentralization plans are more advanced than some other countries of the Eastern Africa Region (e.g., Tanzania and Ethiopia), important details are still being worked out and will be submitted to the Association in due course. Definitive decisions need to be made on such questions as the financial arrangements for central and provincial services; coordination between the provinces and the central government of provincial educational and other services; how questions of equity in education would be dealt with; what autonomy the provinces would have in the appointment of teachers; how teachers at various levels would be recruited, and so on. Government policy in these matters can be expected to evolve over time and as experience is gained in the actual implementation of decentralization; in the meantime, improved facilities in the provincial capitals are urgently needed. 2.26 The widespread use of National Servicemen as basic education teachers together with the improvement in the supply of teaching aids and pedagogical advice and supervision should be given strong support. These teachers will be paid only one-third the wages of a regular teacher, thus helping to solve the financial problem outlined in paras. 2.16 through 2.18. In turn, this should enable the primary school pupil:teacher ratio to be reduced from its present high level and educational efficiency to be improved (para. 2.19). The best of the National Servicemen after their two years service will be taken on as teachers. As they would then have had two years  - 14- experience in the classroom, it should be possible by careful selection to ensure a better standard compared to those students who have gone through a very literary teacher-training program. 2.27 The enrollment and budgetary implications of the Charter, assuming 18,000 National Servicemen are used as teachers at reduced salaries, are given in Annex 2.3. Nearly 30% of the government recurrent budget would be taken by education in 1979, a high percentage; however a part of this expenditure may be borne by the fokonolona. The pupil:teacher ratio in public primary schools would still be 63:1, an excessively high figure especially con- sidering the fact that enrollment expansion would have taken place mainly in sparsely populated rural areas where class sizes may be expected to be lower than average. 2.28 The Government would be well advised to concentrate its efforts more on quality improvement by reducing the number of pupils per teacher rather than on rapidly increasing the enrollment to the extent called for by the Charter. The following figures are illustrative: Possible 1979 Enrollment Targets Alternative Charter I II Total Basic Education Enrollment (0OOs) 2,000 1,750 1,450 - as % of 6-11 age group 114 100 82 Average Pupil:Teacher Ratio, Public Schools 63 55 45 2.29 In each series, education recurrent expenditure takes the same share (29.4%) of total recurrent expenditure. Alternative I enrolls 100% of the basic six-year age group, but still with a very high pupil:teacher ratio; Alternative II with a more reasonable pupil:teacher ratio enrolls 82% of the age group, still a considerable improvement over the 1974 figure of 68%. It must also be remembered that the construction of physical facilities for even the enrollment envisaged in Alternative II would represent a herculean effort on the part of the Government and the fokonolona. Up to the end of 1975, it has been estimated that the fokonolona had built some 3,000 primary schools, mainly small one-classroom schools. To achieve the objectives of the Charter would involve more than doubling the number of class spaces in public schools (from 14,000 to 28,500) involving the construction of some 14,500 class spaces. This represents more than one class space for each of the 10,000 fokonolona in the country, and the magnitude of the task is evident. Alternatives I and II would not affect these figures concerning class spaces - but, of course, the size of the class space could be re- duced if class sizes are diminished. 2.30 In the longer term, the achievement of universal primary education for the six-year age group 6 through 11 becomes more feasible. The finan- cial implications of four possibilities for achieving it are sketched in  - 15- Annex 2.3. The first three assume that primary education will continue to absorb 50% of total education costs based on the government policy of maintaining the proportion of students entering secondary schools, and that National Servicemen will continue to be employed at one-third the salary of regular teachers. The last assumes that secondary expansion would be controlled so that by 1985 primary education could absorb 55% of total education costs. These assumptions are: A. Average regular teacher's salary unchanged from present levels; pupil:teacher ratio a reasonable 45:1. B. Teachers' salaries unchanged; pupil:teacher ratio 63:1 as in the 1979 "Charter" target. C. Existing regular teachers' salaries unchanged; new teachers employed at two-thirds regular salary; pupil: teacher ratio 45:1. D. As for C, but with basic education absorbing 55% of the total education costs. 2.31 A appears financially not feasible; it would involve education taking 37% of the government budget. B is educationally undesirable in view of the excessive pupil:teacher ratio. C is to be recommended educa- tionally but education would still consume 28.5% of the recurrent budget. D is to be recommended both educationally and financially: the control of secondary expansion that it would involve appears desirable in view of the overproduction of secondary school leavers (para. 1.16). Total educa- tion expenditure would amount to a reasonable 26% of government expenditures. 2.32 The Government intends to produce equipment for secondary schools in the Teaching M4aterials Production Center, which would also assist the Regional Education Centers in the production of prototype materials for use in primary schools, thus initiating an attack on the problems mentioned in para. 2.18. While the successful operation of this Center will be diffi- cult especially in the early years, its establishment is to be preferred to simply supplying equipment from abroad to schools on the grounds that the equipment it produces should be more in line with the country's actual needs, that costs would be lower and above all that the teachers would be better able to use it following training in the Center itself. If primary education standards are to be substantially improved, however, more needs to be done to provide basic learning aids such as books. It is also important that the primary school inspectorate be provided with the means to visit schools; at present, there is a serious lack of transport facilities in the school districts. 2.33 The Government's other plans for educational development seem less well based. The envisaged 40% proportion of primary school students going on to secondary school, for example, seems to be excessive in relation to the likely absorptive capacity of the economy; while this is intended to include  - 16 - private secondary school intake also, the proportion of students completing their primary studies will increase rapidly as repeater and dropout rates are reduced. The decision to create a technical lycee in each Region also seems to have been taken without a careful assessment of the country's needs for technically trained personnel and of the availability of well-qualified teachers to teach in these schools. The great need at the secondary level is to rationalize the system and to make the best possible use of such well- qualified staff as are available. The same may be said of the university level; while the creation of a university center at Diego Suarez concentra- ting on marine engineering and other marine studies is perhaps justifiable, the extension of ordinary university studies in Tulear is of more doubtful validity. The existing center in Tulear lacks both equipment and teachers and there is a considerable risk that numbers of unemployable graduates are being turned out both there and in certain faculties (such as law) on the main campus at Tananarive. An Investment Strategy for Education 2.34 An investment strategy should guide the Government in its efforts to improve the quality and relevance of basic education by assisting changes in the content and delivery system, and should give priority to those elements of government policy which would make it more responsive to regional and community needs. It should lessen the existing financial constraint through employment of National Servicemen as teachers, and should provide the teaching aids and improved supervision necessary to maximize the benefits from their deployment. Investments at the secondary and higher levels should be made only with a view to improving general educational quality and - later - in areas where a clear justification on manpower grounds can be shown to exist. 2.35 Within this framework and in close cooperation with the Government, a second Bank Group project has been formulated which would assist the Government in its plans to decentralize educational control and to improve the quality of basic education. The next chapter describes this project in detail. The project can, of course, only make a start in resolving the problems: a future project could possibly take the process one stage further by assisting actual primary school construction by the provision of materials to the fokonolona, training fokonolona leaders, and the con- tinuation of aid to improve the supply of teaching materials. A pre- condition for direct assistance to the fokonolona is the development of adequate administrative channels which in turn requires complete articula- tion of the government decentralization plans in detail. Subsequently, if manpower studies demonstrated the need, investments could be considered in secondary and higher education, but at this time it appears that these sub- systems need rationalization more than further capital inputs.  - 17- 20PA8AT1V0 EDUCATInN INDICATOR8 I NP24/ GN0ClP :1 0 7A7711 17F PUBL IC 2 I 2:P9!. :63.081. ,S~E a I'.APYTI FVTi:0201120P2101C : E10U2AT12P,' ILYTER.. g PR. 12C0MPLE0. WSU- 93CM.IEAC1NIPRIDGRESS-8 SEC. ISIU- t I 115 I 3' EIMI2.2 S 8, I RECU RENIT 24213 zOROLLiTinN tt)ENTSISALA8V 28,10N RATE MIN80LLDENTSomIQIIERs I :22112FT7 (PURITC:n22VOT0D:EXP ALLOCA7EI2I RATF IRATIO IRATE 000.03:8 IRELATION iPRON4 PRI.sRATIO sPCR SENROLL: IPPP* P88T21FS EXOP TO7 I 327: tOO OF I NET IPRI.SC1M,ITEACHS TO 06NP' iTO 3EC. u NET STEACN.. 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