Document of The World Bank FILE COPY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 1258a-ZA STAFF PROJECT REPORT FOURTH EDUCATION PROJECT IN THE REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA December 1, 1976 Education Projects Division Eastern Africa Regional Office This document has a restrcted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. I CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS US$1 Kwacha 0.804 Kwacha 1 US$1.2444 Ngwee (N) 100 = 1 Kwacha MEASURES 1 Meter (m) 2 3.28 Feet I Square Meter (m ) = 10.76 Square Feet 1 Kilometer (km) = 0.6214 Miles I hectare (ha) = 2.471 Acres GOVERNMiENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF ZA14BIA FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY STAFF PROJECT REPORT A FJURTH EDUCATION PROJECT IN THE REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. BASIC DATA GLOSSARY SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS. .............................. i-x I. DEVELOPMENT AND MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS . I Economic Development .. Implications for Education Policy. ........... 2 Population, Employment and Income Differentials .3............3 Manpower Requirements . . 5 II. EDUCATION SECTOR ANALYSIS .... ....9 Background... 9 The Formal Education System . .10 Non-Formal Education ........ ..13 Issues in Education Development. 14 The Sector Review and the Proposed Reform of the Sector ... .20 The Role of the Bank in Zambian Education Development ...... ..24 Annexes: II-1 Structure of Education System II-2 Education Pyramid II-3 Enrollments in Primary and Secondary Schools 1965-1974 II-4 Comparative Education Indicators This report is based on the findings of a mission which visited Zambia in October 1975 and March 1976, composed of Messrs. J. L. Scearce (architect), S. R. Santos (agricultural educator), H. M. Scheffold (education specialist) and Ms. R. P. Brandenburg (economist) all from the Bank Group. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their oflkial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. -2- Page No. III. THE PROJECT ............................................. 26 Project Objectives and Strategy ....................... 26 Project Items ...... ..................................... 27 Educational Services Center ............... 27 Business Education .28 Trades Training Institutes .30 Farm Institutes and Farmer Training Centers .30 Special Studies .33 Annexes: III-1 Technical Assistance for the EHC and DAMRD III-2 Organization Structure of DAMRD IV. COST ESTIMATES, FINANCIAL PLAN, IMPLEMENTATION, PROCUREMENT AND DISBURSEMENT .35 Cost Estimates .35 Financial Plan .39 Implementation of the Project .40 Procurement .41 Disbursements .42 Annexes: IV-1 Summary of Project Cost IV-2 Implementation and Expenditure Schedule IV-3 Key Indicators for Supervision IV-4 Technical Assistance for the Project Implementation Unit IV-5 Estimated Schedule of Disbursements V. BENEFITS AND JUSTIFICATIONS .43 VI. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATIONS .43 Related 'Documents and Data Available in the Project File Key to Map Map IBRD 12131R REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA Basic Data - 1974 General Area 752,600 km Population 4.9 million (1975) Per Capita Income $540 (1975) Literacy Rate 43% (1973) Education Enrollment in Primary Schools (Grades 1-7) 860,000 - as % of 7-13 age group 88% Enrollment in Secondary Schools (Forms I-V) 65.800 - as % of 14-18 age group 13% University of Zambia 2,612 - as % of 19-22 age group 0.7% Recurrent Expenditure of Ministry of Education & Culture K 70 million - as % of Government Recurrent Expenditure 16% Recurrent Expenditure on Education and Training K 93 million - As % of Government Recurrent Expenditure 21% Total Expenditure on Education and Training as a % of GDP 7% ZAMBIA FOURTH EDUCATION PROJECT GLOSSARY COSC Cambridge Overseas School Certificate DAMRD Department of Agriculture, Ministry of Rural Development DCD Department of Community Development DTEVT Department of Technical Education and Vocational Training EHC Evelyn Hone College of Applied Arts & Commerce ESC Educational Services Center FIs Farm Institutes FTCs Farmer Training Centers MOD Ministry of Defense MOE Ministry of Education MOH Ministry of Health MlSS Ministry of Labor and Social Services MPW Ministry of Public Works NORAD Norwegian Agency for International Development NORTEC Northern Technical College NRDC National Resources Development College SNDP Second National Development Plan (1972-1976) TNDP Third National Development Plan (1977-1981) TTIs Trades Training Institutes UNIP United National Independence Party UNZA University of Zambia ZIT Zambian Institute of Technology ZAMBIA APPRAISAL OF A FOURTH EDUCATION PROJECT SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The Sector and its Problems 1. At Independence in 1964, Zambia had a very limited pool of trained manpower and relied almost entirely on expatriates for the design and execu- tion of development programs. The expansion of the education system was therefore given top priority in Zambia's national development plans. From 1964 to 1974 primary school enrollments doubled and at the secondary and higher levels they more than quadrupled. Although the supply of educated manpower increased quantitatively, expatriates still predominate in certain areas, e.g., nearly 70% of the managers of business concerns and 60% of person- nel in specialized technical and professional occupations are expatriates. 2. The general education system consists of seven years of primary education (aged 7-13), five years of secondary education (aged 14-18) and four to six years of university education. About 88% of the relevant age group are enrolled in primary schools and 13% in secondary schools. Courses in a variety of vocational subjects are offered to junior secondary school leavers and a number of diploma courses to upper secondary school leavers. The University of Zambia, established in 1966 has now a total enrollment of over 2,500. 3. The principal issues in education development can be summarized as follows: (a) Administration and Management. In general, in spite of successful efforts to link technical and vocational education with industry, the administration of education is not well coordinated with that of other government services either at the national or provincial levels. In addition, the supporting educational services (e.g., curriculum development, education research and guidance, etc.) suffer from poor integration and lack of unified direction; (b) Curricula and Teaching Methods. Although balanced curricula have been developed for primary and secondary education, their application is not wholly satisfactory because of low teacher quality, high staff turnover and inadequate supervision. The problem is particularly acute in secondary education where about 68% of the teachers are expatriates who have comparatively short contracts. - ii - (c) External Productivity. The emphasize on capital-intensive sectors in Zambia's development and relatively high wages in the modern sector have constrained job creation. The situation is further aggravated by a lack of preparedness of school leavers for their subsequent careers. As a result, the tendency of employers t-o choose capital-inten- sive technologies and to hire expatriates instead of nationals is strengthened. While the expansion of junior seconda,ry education has outgrown the absorptive capacity of the modlern sector, the output at the higher levels is still insufficient to meet the demand particularly in commer- cial and agricultural occupations. More attention must, therefore, be given to both the quantitative and qualita- tive aspects of education at these levels, in order to achieve closer integration between the manpower needs of the economy, on the one hand, and the education/training system, on the other. 4. In order to develop solutions for these and other problems, the Government undertook an overall review of the sector. The main conclusions of the review are expected to be developed in early l977 and used for the formulation of educational objectives and targets of the Third National Development Plan (1977-1981). The review is being conducted within the framework of the United National Independence Party's (UNIP) guidelines for national education policies for the decade 1974-1984 whose main points are: a) to restructure the system of education and provide for ten years of compul- sory education; (lb) to improve and expand the programs of adult education; (c) to develop a locally based examination system; and (d) to merge the functions of the local and regional education councils with those of the local and regional developmeant committees in order to develop an improved administration. The review is also guided by President Kaunda's directive that every student should develop positive attitudes towards productive work and should ren- der national serv:ice before entering higher education. The results of the review would be the basis of educational reforms, guided by the principle that students must not be seen only as consumers of social services but also as productive forces contributing to the economy. 5. In accordance with the broad educational objectives outlined in UNIP policy guidelines, the task of the review is to: (a) determine how best to achieve these objectives within reasonable time limits and exist- ing and projected resources and constraints; (b) develop a comprehensive long-term educational development plan with quantitative and qualitative specifications; and (c) prepare a phased program for its implementation. Upon completion of the review, comprehensive projects are expected to be developed with Bank assistance. Meanwhile, the Government has developed an interim investment program to meet urgent and immediate priorities which will not be affected by the findings of the review. This project is a major part of the interim program. - iii - 6. The Bank has had a major role in assisting education in Zambia. Three Bank projects are providing improved facilities for some 70,000 stu- dent places including 40,000 new places, mostly in secondary schools and at the University of Zambia. The First Education Project (Loan 592-ZA), after numerous initial delays and more recently delays attributed to civil strife in adjacent countries, is now proceeding satisfactorily and is expected to be completed in 1978. The Second Education Project (Loan 645-ZA) has been satisfactorily completed as originally appraised. As a result of contri- butions of equipment by bilateral sources, a saving of $1.0 million from the loan proceeds resulted and the Closing Date has been extended to 1978 to allow the use of these savings for project related items. The Third Educa- tion Project (Loan 900-ZA) is proceeding satisfactorily. 7. Since Independence, the Government has placed emphasis on quan- titative expansion of the formal education system at all levels. The sys- tem has now grown to such dimensions that it becomes necessary to con- solidate and strengthen administrative and support services in order to maintain high quality instruction. Future reforms would also need the support of such services. Furthermore, the implementation of the govern- ment policies to expand agricultural production and promote rural devel- opment requires urgent improvements in farmer training and agricultural extension efforts. Finally, the training for skills in business and com- merce should be expanded to meet the acute shortage of Zambian manpower in these fields. Therefore, the interim investment program is designed: (a) to provide Zambia with an adequate administrative structure to consolidate the educational services; (b) to assist rural development by improving farmer training and the extension service; and (c) to increase the supply of trained staff in the business and commercial sectors of the Zambian economy. The Project 8. The project was identified during a Bank economic mission which visited Zambia in June 1975. A Government request for Bank assistance was made in October 1975. Bank missions in November 1975 and March 1976 assisted the Government in preparing the project and appraised it. Negotia- tions were held in Washington from November 15 to 19, 1976. The delegation of the Government of Zambia was led by Mr. P.A. Siwo, Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Education. 9. The proposed project is designed to meet the objectives of the interim investment program outlined above, consisting of: (a) improvement of education administration, research and curriculum development through the construction, furnishing and equipping of Phase II (para. 10) (Phase I is a component of the Third Education Project) of the Educational Services Center (b) expansion and improvement in business education through the provision of additional boarding capacity and equipment for the Evelyn Hone College of Applied Arts and Commerce and instructional equipment for commercial and - iv - secretarial courses at five Trades Training Institutes; (c) improvement in the training of agricultural staff and farmers through provisions for and/or or renovation of teaching and boarding facilities, utility services, staff housing, instructional equipment and transport in eight existing Farm Insti- tutes and 20 existing Farmer Training Centers; (d) technical assistance con- sisting of 25 man-years of specialist services and 40 man-years of fellowships for staff development at the Evelyn Hone College and 13 man-years of specialist services and 8 man-years of fellowships in agricultural education and extension; and (e) completion and evaluation studies. The project would also include a survey of the construction industry. Detailed Features 10. Educational Services Center, Phase II. The Ministry of Educa- tion maintains a number of uncoordinated educational services facilities (e.g. curriculum development, student services and several examination services sections) which located all over Lusaka and in other provinces, generally housed in temporary or sub-standard facilities. Phase I of the Center is be-ing carried out under the Third Education Project (Loan 900-ZA); it provides for the first time a unified administration and includes a Curriculum Unit, an Audio-Visual Center, the Correspondence Course Unit, the Zambia Library Service, Orbit Magazine, Administrative Services and a Printing and Documenta- tiDn unit. The proposed project would assist in Phase II and would add an Examination Section including a Standards and Certification Division, a Research, Evaluation and Guidance Section and an expansion of the Printing and Documentation Unit. The Examination Section administers examinations for all primary and secondary schools, Trades Training Institutes, Teacher Training Institutes and post-secondary technical schools. 11. Business Education. The project would expand the supply of Zambian business and accountancy manpower by: (a) increasing the boarding capacity of the Evelyn Hone College of Applied Arts and Commerce by 250 places and providing the college with required instructional equipment and furniture; (b) assistance in the training of Zambian teachers for the college's business and secretarial studies department; and (c) assisting in the establishing of commerciai and secretarial courses in five Trades Training Institutes through the provision of instructional equipment. 12. This college campus has a capacity of 1,200 student places, of which only 950 are filled due to limited boarding capacity (640 places) and the lack of other housing facilities for students in Lusaka. The increase in boarding piaces at the college campus would allow for an expansion in enrollments in the business and accountancy studies departments. Since the teaching staff of the Business Studies Department is still composed entirely of expatriates the project would include a staff development scheme which is to be updated in detaii by the Department of Technical Education and Vocational Training (Section 3.06). I/ Beneficiaries of the fellowship scheme would be required to teach at least three years at the colleges. 1/ Refers to Section of Loan Agreement. v 13. Trades Training Institutes located in the eight provinces have been successful in the basic training of certain skilled manpower demanded by Zambian industry inside and outside big business centers. Five institutes, located in areas of growing demand for secretarial manpower have been chosen for the introduction of commercial courses. With the provisions of the required instructional equipment, classes could start immediately. No problems are anticipated in recruiting specialized teachers for these courses. 14. Farm Institutes and Farmer Training Centers operated by the Department of Agriculture, Ministry of Rural Development. Residential farmer training is carried out 14 27 centers, each of the eight provinces having 3-4 centers where short courses for farmers and farm women are offered and in eight Farm Institutes, one in each province, where mainly in-service training for extention staff is taking place. A recent study which was conducted under the Third Education Project (Loan 900-ZA), revealed that while farmer training and extension activities had some influence in improving agricultural production, their overall impact has been minimal due to the following constraints: (a) the instructors at the centers and institutes and the extension agents and their assistants are inadequately trained; (b) the institutions do not have transportation facilities necessary to bring in farmers and staff for train- ing; (c) provisions for water and electricity are inadequate; and (d) some teaching facilities are substandard and essential instructional equipment is lacking. As a result of these constraints these institutes and centers have operated at only about 54% of their capacity. The proposed project would assist in upgrading the quality of the agriculture staff and farmer training programs by providing the necessary facilities, equipment, thirteen man-years of specialists services for an agricultural educator, an extension educator, a rural home economics educator, an audio-visual and teaching aids specialist, and eight man-years of fellowships for advanced training in agricultural and home extension education and audio-visual and teaching aids. Three institutes and seven centers are presently being upgraded under the Third Education Project (Loan 900-ZA). The remaining twenty centers and five institutes are expected to be improved under the proposed project. The three previously assisted institutes would receive an audio-visual workshop and additional equipment. These improvements would allow the centers to admit 13,400 addi- tional farmers and farm women. The Government confirmed that: (a) the four specialists would be appointed within nine months of the date the Loan Agreement (Section 3.07); and (b) that with the help of the agricultural specialists, a detailed plan satisfactory to the Bank, for the retraining of the teaching and extension staff and the improvement of the instructional and extension programs of the Department of Agriculture will be prepared and submitted to the Bank within 18 months after the date of the Loan Agreement (Section 3.08). 15. Special Studies - The proposed project would include assistance to carry out the following studies: (i) Survey of the construction industry. The industry is now dominated by firms owned by expatriates and little is being done to promote the development of local Zambian contractors. Due to the present uncertainties over whether the Government intends - vi. - to encourage or curtail private initiative, many con- tractors are reluctant to undertake additional work; this has inflated prices. Aware that such problems exist, the Government has requested assistance to undertake a survey which would give guidance on how to promotes a viable industry. The survey would review the industry as a whole, including the infrastructure. The terms of reference of the survey have been pre- pared by the Government and reviewed by the Bank. The cost of the survey is estimated at US$250,000 equiva:Lent. (ii) Complet:ion and Evaluation Studies. To facilitate the evaluation of the proposed project after its completion, funds would be provided under the proposed loan for conducting evaluation studies of project components. The completion and evaluation studies report would be submitted to the Bank for review within three months after completion of the project. The terms of reference of these studies would be mutually agreed upon between the Borrower and the Bank. Proiect Cost and Financing 16. The total project cost is estimated at $23.2 million equivalent including taxes ($1.0 million equivalent) of which the foreign exchange component is US$15.0 million, equivalent or 65%. The proposed loan would cover $13.3 million of the foreign exchange costs, the balance of $1.7 million being provided by a grant from the Norwegian Agency for International Development. The Government would provide most of the funds required ($7.8 miilion equivalent) to meet the local currency expenditures, the balance of $0.4 million being provided by NORAD. Standardized building designs previously developed by the Buildings Branch of the Ministry of Public Works and consultant architects will be used where practicable and emphasis will be given t:o the maximum use of local materials and simplified building technology. Base unit costs of US$270 per square meter on average for construction for the Farm Institutes and Farmer Training Centers is somewhat high due to, inter alia, their remote locations and small size of work involved. This compares with US$350 (October 1975) in Zaire and US$250 (September 1976) in Madagascar. Project costs are summarized as follows: - vii - ESTIMATED COST BY PROJECT ITEMS % of Kwacha (Millions) US$ (Millions) Base Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Cost I. Civil Works, Furniture, Equipment & Vehicles 1. Educational Services - Center 0.64 1.09 1.73 0.79 1.36 2.15 16 2. Evelyn Hone Collage 0.43 0.54 0.97 0.54 0.67 1.21 9 3. Farm Institutes 0.32 0.69 1.01 0.40 0.85 1.25 10 4. Farmer Training Centers 1.21 2.15 3.36 1.50 2.68 4.18 32 5. Trades Training Institutes 0.01 0.08 0.09 0.02 0.10 0.12 1 Sub-total I 2.61 4.55 7.16 3.25 5.66 8.91 68 II. Professional Services (Architectural/Engineering) 0.43 0.23 0.66 0.53 0.29 0.82 6 III. Technical Assistance 0.42 1.68 2.10 0.53 2.09 2.62 20 IV. Special Studies 0.23 0.12 0.35 0.28 0.15 0.43 3 V. Project Administration 0.22 0.12 0.34 0.27 0.15 0.42 3 BASE COST (Sept. 1976) Total (I-IV) 3.91 6.70 10.61 4.86 8.34 13.20 100 VI. Contingencies 1. Physical increases (8%) 0.34 0.56 0.90 0.41 0.70 1.11 2. Price increases (47%) 1.99 3.42 5.41 2.48 4.26 6.74 Sub-total VI 2.33 3.98 6.31 2.89 4.96 7.85 Total (I-VI) 6.24 10.68 16.92 7.75 13.30 21.05 1I VII. NORAD (Technical Assistance) 0.33 1.37 1.70 0.42 1.70 2.12 TOTAL PROJECT COST (I-VII) 6.57 12.05 18.62 8.17 15.00 23.17 /1 Includes taxes estimated at US$1.0 million equivalent. - viii - Flnancial Plan 170 The total project cost of UTS$23.2 million equivalent would te financed as follows: Gc-r L of Zambia IBRD NORAD Totai 1. Civil Works 3.07 3.77 - 6.84 2. Furniture 0.04 0.62 - 0.66 3. Equipment & vehicles 0.14 1.27 - 1,41 4. Prof. Services (A/E) 0.53 0.29 - 0.82 5. Tech. Assistance 0.53 2.09 2.12 4.74 6. Special Studies 0.28 0.15 - 0.43 7. Project Admin. 0.27 0.15 0.42 8. Unallocated (contingencies) 2.89 4.96 7.85 TOTAL 7.75 13.30 2.12 23.17 Of which taxes 1.00 0.00 0.00 1D0O Implementation of the Project 18. The projiect would be implemented in about six years after loan effectiveness. Thes Project Unit established in the Buildings Branch oi- tie Ministry of Public Works for the implementation of the Third Educatfo. Froject (Loan 900-ZA) would be responsible for the financial and administrativiN control of the project, and for liaison with the Bank and various M.i_- iries and agencies (Section 3.02(b)). The Unit hitherto has functioned satsiffCtorily.. Because of increased workload it will be strengthened through the ad i of a full-time assistant project director to be provided by the NoTweg a, Aqency for International i)evelopment (NORAD). Any new appointments to t p ons of project director, assistant project director, architect, equipment E.peciallst and the accountant would be made in consultation with the Bank, Tl^e 'L-rower will continue to maintain the unit and its staff (Section 3.02(b)). I-.cluded in the project would be supplemental operational expenses of the Pro ect Unit. NORAD is to provide, on grant basis, technical assistance consisting of about 18 man-years of specialists services for the Project Unit and about 8 man-years of services of building construction supervisors. 19. Design and supervision of construction of all project instit-utions would be carried out by consultant architects/engineers. Standardized bufId- ing designs and documents previously developed by the Buildings Branch of the Ministry of Public Works and consultant architects would be ut-Ilized .-C` the maximum extent practicable. The consultants would be under t.e s-po- sion of the Project Unit and would be employed within six months of- t-e C-ante of the Loan Agreement (Section 3.02(a)). - ix - Procurement 20. Contracts for civil works, furniture, equipment and vehicles would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding in accordance with Bank guidelines except as follows: (i) due to wide dispersion of the rural construction sites, civil works contracts to cost less than US$250,000 equiv- alent (estimated at US$4.5 million); (ii) furniture, equipment and vehicle contracts to cost less than US$50,000 equivalent (estimated at US$0.3 million); and (iii) locally procured transportation services for furniture and equipment (estimated at US$o.1 million). Contracts for items (i) to (iii) are likely to have a total value of US$4.9 million, equivalent and would be awarded on the basis of competitive bidding, advertised locally and in accordance with local procedures satisfactory to the Bank. Standardized sketch designs, draft tender documents and master lists of furniture, equipment and vehicles, indicating proposed grouping for tender, would be reviewed by the Bank. Items would be grouped to the extent practicable to permit bulk procurement. Review of tender evaluation documents by the Bank prior to award would be required only for contracts above US$250,000 equivalent for civil works and above US$50,000 equivalent for equipment, furniture and vehicles. Qualified domestic manufacturers of furniture and equipment would be allowed a preference of 15% or the existing rate of import duties, whichever is lower, over the c.i.f. price of competing foreign suppliers. Disbursements 21. Disbursement would be on the basis of: (a) 100% of foreign expendi- tures for imported construction materials, furniture, equipment, including vehicies and technical assistance; (b) 100% of ex-factory cost of locally manufactured furniture and equipment; (c) 45% of total expenditures for civil works; (d) 70% of total expenditures for imported goods purchased locally and local transportation services; and (e) 35% of professional services, special studies and project administration, All disbursements would be fully documented. Disbursements for expenses under project administration would be made against a certificate of expenditure and made available for inspection by the Bank during project supervision. Annual auditing of expenditures incurred by the Project Unit would be required (Section 4.02(c)). Benefits, Justifications and Risks 22. In quantitative terms there will be substantial benefits from the proposed project. It will allow an increase in the supply of extremely scarce middle and advanced level manpower (in particular accountants) in business and commerce from 40 p.a. to 300 p.a., create the opportunity for training of an additional 13,400 farmers and farm women p.a. in the Farmers Training Centers and improve the in-service training capacity of the Farm Institutes for agricultural and extension staff. In qualitative terms, the project would for the first time permit the fuil coordination and administra- tion of educational services which have come into existence since Independence, and improved educational research, evaluation and guidance will bridge the gaps between the school system and the labor market needs. The tailoring of all school examinations to Zambian requirements will be made possible as well -x - as more efficient cooperation between curriculum development units and examina- tion administration. A special feature of the project is technical assistance and staff development for the Evelyn Hone College which will allow, over a span of six years, to Zambianize a hitherto 100% expatriate Business Studies Department faculty and will quintuple Zambian teaching resources in busJness studies. Training of farmers would be greatly improved through better qualified instructors and extension agents. The risks of the project relate basically to the Farmer Train:Ing Centers, their program orientation and the attendance of farmers. Therefore, the improvement in physical facilities is only one of the inputs required to develop an effective system of farmer training. In order to minimize the risks, the project includes technical assistance and evaluation studies. Aree,ments Reached and Recommendations 23. Agreement was reached with the Government on the following prin- ciple points: (a) technical assistance, staff development, in-ser- vice training of agricultural teaching and exten- sion staff and evaluation studies (paras. 3.09, 3.14 and 3.17); and (b) employment of architectural/engineering consul- tants, auditing procedures and project implemen- tation arrangements (paras. 4.03, 4.11 and 4.17). 24. Retroactive financing in the total amount of $100,000 equivalent is recommended for expenditures incurred from December 1, 1976 for "a survey of the construction industry and architectural and engineering services" (paras, 3i17 and 4.11)6 25. The proposed project constitutes a suitable basis for a Bank lcan of $13e,3 million equivalent to the Republic of Zambia on standard IBRD lean terms, I. DEVELOPMENT AND MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS Economic Development 1.01 Zambia is a landlocked country in the southern half of Africa. Most of the country consists of a high plateau intersected by valleys of the Zambesi River and its tributaries. With an area of 752,600 square kilo- meters and a population of 4.9 million, the country is sparsely populated. The people are of Bantu stock and there are seven major languages with English serving as the "lingua franca" of the Nation. The per capita in- come is about US$540 equivalent -- one of the highest in Africa south of the Sahara. Zambia has large mineral reserves and wide areas of land suitable for crops and livestock, and has the potential for sustained development. However, over the past decade, overall growth has been disappointing; per capita income, in real terms, has remained unchanged from 1965 to 1975. The modern sector of the economy continues to be dominated by copper mining which contributes about 40% of GDP and over 90% of the value of exports. Despite levels of gross investment which have averaged 27% of GDP, output has grown by only about 3.5% p.a. from 1970 to 1974 as a result of near stagnation in the mining and agricultural sectors. 1.02 Manufacturing contributes 13% to GDP, 11% to employment and con- tinues to grow rapidly, based mainly on import substitution for consumer goods, but employment creation has been low (about 2% p.a. from 1970 to 1974) due to the use of capital intensive techniques. Despite large mining investments in the past few years, it is expected that copper pro- duction will expand at about 3% p.a. on average from 1975 to 1980. Agri- culture contributes 12% to GDP and 9.5% to employment, and production has expanded slowly (about 1.7% p.a. from 1970 to 1974) but is expected to im- prove as an effective agricultural policy is developed and implemented. 1.03 Owing to the failure to contain growth of recurrent expenditures and to maintain adequate foreign exchange reserves when copper prices were high, the Government is Lacing financial difficulties. The Government has tried to diversify its tax base away from mineral revenues by restructuring personal income tax, introducing new sales and excise levies, and raising most tax rates. However, recurrent expenditures have increased rapidly and consequently government savings have been generally lower than in the past decade (1964-1974). In real terms, government capital expenditures during the first three years of the Second National Development Plan (SNDP) 1972-1976 averaged only 71% of the annual amounts envisaged in the Plan. 1.04 During 1975, low copper prices led to a drastic drop in Zambia's foreign exchange earnings and low profits in the mining industry caused reduced tax revenues, The closing of the Benguela railway through Angola due to the civil war in that country and congestion in other Eastern African ports serving Zambia, made the export of copper very difficult and force majeur declarations had to be issued for a sizeable volume of contracted deliveries. In addition, large transit stocks of copper were blocked in Angola and ship- ments were delayed from other Eastern African ports. In the other direction, vital imports did not reach the country timely or only after heavy losses, and the price level for imported goods rose sharply. Most affected by reduced and more expensive imnports were the construction and manufacturing industries. In January 1976, the Government announced a series of austerity measures, :includ- ing a reduction in recurrent and capital expenditures, increases in cus:-om duties and sales, excise and income taxes and control over imports and foreign exchange transactions. In July 1976, the kwacha was devalued by 20%, an important step towards restoring Zambia's international competitiveness for industrial and agricultural products. 1.05 The recenL economic difficulties have heightened the Government's awareness of the need for drastic changes in development strategy. The President and the National Council of the United National Independence Party (UNIP) announced in June 1975 that a return to the land and an increase of agricultural production would be given top priority in order to contain the high urbanization rate (paras. 1.08 - 1.09), to lessen dependency on food imports and to reduce income differentials. Within this context, the Govern- ment has announced a rural reconstruction program and is discussing with the Bank specific measures to improve agricultural output in both short and long-term planning. A Bank agricultural sector survey is recommending the following: (a) an increased allocation of infrastructure investment and provision of supporting services to rural growth centers; (b) a greater allocation than in the past of skilled manpower to the planning and execution of rural development projects and a regional decentralization of these func- tions; and (c) an improved efficiency of the marketing organization. The recent Government decision to increase producers' prices for major agricul- tural commodities indicates that appropriate action is being taken to stimul- ate an increase in farm output and reduce income differentials. Farmers' training will have to play an important role within the context of this strategy. 1.06 At the same time, the Government plans to rationalize and improve manufacturing and commerce in order to increase their contribution to out- put and employment. A shift from capital intensive to labor intensive tech- niques and a general improvement in management and organization of both parastatal and private companies are needed to increase the competitiveness of Zambia industry and reduce the high degree of subsidy and protection presently afforded. Improved training in business and accounting is required to meet these objectives. Implications for Education Policy 1.07 At IndeperLdence in 1964, Zambia had a comparatively small numner of educated and trained local manpower. During the 1960s the manufacturino --d mining sectors expanded rapidly and the gap between the demand for and tne supply of educated manpower widened. Consequently, the country remained dependent upon a large number of expatriates. In 1972, 24% of the jobs in the mining and quarrying sector were held by expatriates. This dependency _s also well marked in the civil service and parastatals -- particularly in professional posts where it is estimated that 63% are non-Zambians. Of the highly qualified personnel in Zambia today, about 65% are expatriates. In the future, Zambia intends to produce trained local manpower to replace these expatriates. Obviously full Zambianization is not feasible in the short run particularly for those jobs which require long experience and for which train- ing in Zambia is too expensive, but it is reasonable to assume Zambianization as a target to be achieved by the mid or late 1980s. In addition to supplying the manpower for the modern sector, provisions of education and training for the development of the rural agricultural sector are to complement the Govern- ment's agricultural development objectives and strategy (para. 1.05). Population, Employment and Income Differentials 1.08 The population of Zambia has an estimated growth rate of 2.9% p.a. There is a wide discrepancy, however, in population growth rates among the eight provinces which range from as low as -0.9% p.a. in the Luapula province to a high of 5.2% p.a. in the Central province. As a result, the distribution of the population among provinces is also rapidly changing. The Central and Copperbelt provinces continue to receive large numbers of immigrants and the remaining six provinces continue to show a net loss in interprovince migration. The extent of these migration flows in relative terms was not as large in 1969-74 as in 1963-69. There are several reasons for this: (a) the absorptive capacity of Central and Copperbelt provinces is unlikely to be increasing at the same rate as the population growth and so the attractiveness of these provinces to potential migrants may be declining somewhat; and (b) growth points, attractive to potential migrants are appear- ing in other provinces. The urban population 1/ growth rate p.a. has declined from 8.9% in 1963-69 to 6.8% in 1969-74, and during the same periods the rural population growth rate has risen from 0.5% to 1.2%. Thus the rate of urban- ization is still rapid even though it appears to be slowly declining. The proportion of the population living in urban areas is now 35.3% (compared with 29.4% in 1969), an extremely high proportion by African standards. 1.09 Population is evenly distributed among five of the eight provinces - specifically, Copperbelt, Central, Southern, Northern and Eastern. However, employment in the modern sector does not follow the pattern of population distribution. For example, the number of wage employees as a percentage of the provincial population in 1974 was 25.7% for the Copperbelt, 19.5% for the Central, 7.6% for the Southern and 2.1% for Luapula. In the remaining provinces (North Western, Northern, Western and Eastern), wage employment ranged between 3.0% and 4.8% of the population. 1/ Urban areas are defined as those with a population of at least 5,000. - 4 - 1.10 While data on unemployment are incomplete, it is believed tha~- both unemployment and underemployment in Zambia are increasing. Due to the. use of capital intensive technologies, the labor absorption capacity of the modern sector is limited, and the few new jobs which are created often require skills or training not possessed by a large number of the labor force. Unemployment was estimated by thes Zambian Central Office of Statistics to number 141/000 in 1975, an increase from 56,000 in 1968. Nevertheless, the urban industrial areas attract large numbers of job seekers in part because they represent opportunities for uipward mobility. 1.11 The total labor force in Zambia is now estimated to be about 1.5 mil- lion. Of this number, some 400,000 1/ are now employed in the monetary sector. Wages in the modern sector are high relative to other East African countries at a comparable stage of development and to incomes in the rural areas. It is estimated that about 30% of the population, dependent on the modern sector, enjoy a per capita income of about K690 per year as compared to K70 a year for the 70% of the population dependent on the traditional sector. In addition, recent wage increases have aggravated the situation and rising wages have accentuated the urban-rural gap which in turn has led to rising consumption patterns, greater demand for imports and an increase in Government recurrent expenditure. Furthermore, earnings in the modern sector in Zambia appear high relative to productiLvity, particularly if the subsidy of consumer goods through low agricultural prices is taken into account. Although the official Government policy since 1970 has been that wage increases should be related to productivity and not: exceed 5% p.a., in practice this has not been true. as witnessed by the 25%x average increase for civil servants granted in 1975. The growthi of the parastatal institutions which are semi-independent of the general civil service in their salary determination has also placed an upward pressure on wages. In general, the parastatals have paid higher salaries and given better fringe benefits than the civil service. Naturally, the mining sector has traditionally played a crucial role in forcing upward the wage structure. 1.12 Wage employment in 1971 was estimated at 365,000 and increased at a rate of 2.3% p.a. up to 1974. In 1974, there were about 390,000 wage employees who comprised about 26% of the active labor force. The percentage distribution of wage employment by sector in the six-year period 1969-74 was as follows: 1/ Excludes domestics. -5- 1969 1971 1974 (%) (%) (%) Agriculture 11 11 10 Mining & Quarrying 18 16 16 Manufacturing 11 12 11 Electricity 1 1 1 Construction 20 18 20 Transport 7 6 7 Tourism, Finance & Social Services 32 36 35 All Sectors 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Government of Zambia, Monthly Digest of Statistics, July/August 1975. 1.13 The major employer during this six-year period has been the public sector including community, social and personal services, construction, mining and manufacturing. There have been no significant changes in the sectoral employment pattern over the last six years. The only moderate change has been in the construction sector, reflecting the government investment program which was geared to the implementation of the Tanzania-Zambia (Tanzam) railway in the early 1970s and which is now likely to witness a serious decline, in volume of both output and employment. Manpower Requirements 1.14 The Government had projected that during the SNDP wage employment would increase by about 100,000, an average of 20,000 jobs a year. This growth of about 5% p.a. would have been consistent with a projected GDP growth of 7.5% p.a. The projected growth rates were clearly unrealistic. But even measured against more modest goals, the actual performance has been disappointing. The table below illustrates that during the first three years of the Plan wage employment grew at only 9,300, or 2.5% a year on the average. GDP grew by less than 4% p.a. in this period. In 1975, GDP fell and employment has most likely not increased over the level attained in 1974. -6 - 1971 1972 1973 1974 Thdustry /1 (June) (June) (June) (June) Ag:riculture 37,800 38,210 36,640 36,520 Mining & Quarryirng 57,980 57,520 61,340 64,030 Manufacturing 40,620 42,560 40,990 43,130 Conistruction 70,160 68,950 76,100 74,770 Distribution 33,910 359700 36,460 35,7zL0 Transport 22,170 26X620 25,340 26,450 All Services 95,710 94,180 100.700 105,620 All Industries 358,350 364,740 377,570 386,270 /1 Excluding Domestic Service. Source: Monthly Digest of Statistics, November/December 1975. 1.15 Preliminary government estimates for the period of 1977-1981 appear as unrealistic as the ones contained in the SNDP. Assuming that employment in 1976 would be 410,000 the estimates project a wage employment in 1981- of some 535,000. This assumes a growth rate of about 5.5% p.a. for employment over the period of the TNDP which, in turn, would mean a monetary GDP growth rate of at least 7% p.a. On the assumption of a more realistic growth rate of monetary GDP of about 5% p.a., wage employment would increase by some 3% p.a. and its distribution by sector would be as follows: 1974 1984 Agriculture 36,520 46,000 Mining & Quarrying 64,030 73,000 Manufacturing 43,130 71,000 Construction 74,770 85,000 Transport 26,450 41,000 Electricity 5,470 7,000 Distribution, Finance & Social Services 135,900 197,000 Total 386,270 520,000 Source: Bank staff estimates. 1.16. According to Bank staff estimates, wage employment would be distributed by major categories of occupations as follows: -7 - 1974 1984 Professional & Technical 32,800 46,800 Adm./Managerial 15,500 26,000 Clerical & Related Workers 30,100 48,800 Sales Workers 15,500 20,800 Service Workers 38,600 83,200 Production & Related Workers 253,800 296,400 Total 386,300 522,000 1.17 On the basis of conservative assumptions as to attrition rates for death, retirement, etc. (2% p.a. reflecting an implied average working life of 33 years and the comparatively young age profile of the persons now in employment) and on the hypothesis that some 80% of the over 30,000 expatriates in professional, technical, administrative and managerial posi- tions will be replaced by Zambians by the mid- or late 1980s, the Bank staff projects that manpower requirements over the period 1974-1984 would be as follows: Total Manpower Requirements 1974-1984 Professional & Technical 35,500 Administrative & Managerial 25,500 Clerical 24,500 Sales 8,800 Services 53,800 Production 93,400 241,500 At the highest occupational levels which are also those most significant for educational planning purposes, the projection is extremely sensitive to the assumptions regarding Zambianization policy because net job crea- tion is expected to be small (some 2,500 p.a.). 1.18 Data on the education background of job holders by occupational categories are scanty and imprecise. In order to estimate the need for outputs of the various levels of the education system, the Bank staff has developed a matrix regarding the required education background for new entrants into wage employment on the basis of international comparisons and conservative assumptions. The matrix takes account of the Government's intention to broaden participation in junior secondary education so as to attain eventually a universal basic education of ten years (paras. 2.29). This will have the effect to gradually raise education qualifications for various occupations, particularly for those at the bottom of the wage em- ployment ladder. At the same time, however, the matrix takes account that - 8 - shortages of teachers prevent a major expansion of post-secondary and upper-secondary education and as a result, the educational profile of new entrants in professional, technical, managerial and administrative cate- gories would be lower than that normally found in countries of Zambia's level of development. The matrix is provided below: Educational Background of New Entrants in Wage Employment 1974-1984 University & Form I1I Post-Secondary Form V or Less Professional & Teclnical 20% 40% 40% Managerial & Administrative 15% 40% 45% Clerical 5% 25% 70% Sales 5% 40% 55% Services 5% 10% 85% Production & Agriculture 5% 10% 85% On the basis of thi's matrix, during the 1974-1984 period, education output needs are estimated at some 20,000 for graduates of the University of Zambia and other post-secondary institutions, 50,000 for Form V graduates and 170,000 for junior secondary or primary school graduates. These estimates do not inclulde primary and junior secondary school teachers for which separate projections have been carried out as summarized in paras. 2.20 and 2.21. 1.19 Projections of the supply from the education system have been carried out by Bank staff on the basis of the enrollment targets in para. 2.36 and of observed participation rates of graduates into the labor force 1/. They indicate that with some 20,000 entrants into the labor market from the University and other post-secondary institutions and 40,000 from upper secondary education, manpower needs and supply would be broadly in balance at the higher levels, but that some 125,000 junior secondary school leavers and over a million primary school leavers would compete for about 160,000 jobs. Furthermore, due to the high degree of urbanization of Zambia (para. 1.08), youth unemployment in the towns is likely to reach acute proportions: under optimistic circumstances, in urban areas there would be only a job for every five teenagers with primary or junior secondary education. This reinforces the need for carrying out an effective program of agricultural development which would create productive self-employment in rural areas and for revising the incentive system as is now being undertaken by the Government (para. 1.05). 1/ 80% for graduates of universities and other post-secondary institu-- tions, 70% for secondary school graduates. - 9 - 1.20 Available data does not provide sufficient information to identify shortages of high and middle level manpower by major disciplines. However, interviews with employers reveal that gaps are particularly serious in science-based occupations for the reasons outlined in paras. 2.17, 2.21 and 2.22. In commercial occupations, some 55% of those now employed are expatriates and in agriculture, expatriates account for 50% of those occupying professional posts. 1.21 As a conclusion, the following priorities emerge for manpower development: (a) expansion and improvement of professional, technical and admin- istrative training for both the high and middle levels with em- phasis on preparation for science-based occupations and for jobs in commerce and agriculture; and (b) reorientation of primary and junior secondary education to pre- pare school leavers for a productive life on the land as a part of a well-conceived development program. II. EDUCATION SECTOR ANALYSIS Background 2.01 At Independence, Zambia was one of the African countries least prepared in educational terms. Very few Zambians had completed higher or even secondary education or participated in skill training and as a result, Zambia almost entirely relied upon expatriates for preparation and execution of development programs. In the early days of colonization, education for Africans was exclusively organized by religious missions. Nevertheless, when Great Britain in 1924 assumed direct administrative responsibility for Northern Rhodesia, a fairly widespread education system had been in existence, however operating on a very low standard. In 1964 it was appar- ent that national development could only be gained by placing major emphasis on educational development and consequently the expansion of the educational sector received priority in the Emergency Development Plan (January-December 1964), the Transitional Development Plan (January 1965-June 1966) and in the First (1966-1971) and Second (1972-1976) National Development Plans. Enrollments, therefore, expanded rapidly and increased about 120% at the primary level and 360% at the secondary level from 1964 to 1974. 2.02 Today, the Ministry of Education (MOE) is responsible for almost all educational activities, channeling about 90% of public recurrent expenditure for education into primary, secondary, tertiary education, vocational training, adult education and the Zambian Youth Service. Other public entities with sizeable educational activities are the Ministry of Rural Development (MRD) - 10 - (extension service), the Ministry of Labor and Social Services (MLSS) (through its Depart:ment and Community Development, community development- oriented adult education), the Ministry of Health (MOH) (para-medical trades and in-service training for all categories of medical personnel) and the Ministry of Defense (MOD) (training of unemployed youth in rural camps). The Office of the President, the Ministries of Telecommunication, Mining, Aviation, Defense and the General Post Office either have or have had sub- stantial training programs for the benefit of their own staff, including manual workers. In addition, the mining industry plays a major role in professional and skill training at various levels. The Formal Education System 2.03 The structure of the education system, the education pyramid, enrollment in primary and secondary education and comparative education indicators are included as Annexes II-1, II-2, II-3 and II-4. The full primary course consists of seven years of schooling but in some rural areas schools with four classes only, are still in existence with about 65% oi- the pupils advancing from Grade 4 to Grade 5. In 1974 there were 1,585 fulL (Grades 1-7) primary schools and 1,069 with a reduced number of grades. About 75% (643,200 pupils) of all primary schools are operated by the Government; 24.6% (211,500 pupils) Government aided, and less than 1% (3,500 pupils) are private. Participation of the relevant age group (7-13 years) in primary schooling is about 88%. The primary course is concluded with the "Grade 7 Composite Examination", determining who will gain access to Lower Second- ary School and who will have to find employment or ways leading to further education or skill training. The secondary course is composed of a Lower Cycle (3 years, Forms I-III) and an Upper Cycle (2 years, Forms IV-V). Some 13% of the age group are enrolled in secondary courses and about 20% of Grade 7 primary school leavers progress to the secondary level and upon completion of the third year of secondary schooling (Form III), the "Junior Secondary School Leaving Examination" is taken. It serves as certification for those leaving the course and for the selection of students for entry to the upper cycle. About 46% of these students progress to the upper cycle and take at the end of Form V, the Cambridge Overseas School Certificate (COSC) examination conducted and administered by MOE. Today there are 111 secondary schools in operation and about 50% of them have received Bank assistance under Loan 592-ZA and Loan 900-ZA. Basic data on general education are presented below: - 1I - Primary and Secondary School Data (1974) % of Comple- Enroll- age tion % % Boys: ment Group Rate % Teachers Qualified Expatriates Girls Primary Schools: 65% (rural) Grades: 90% (urban) 1-7 860,000 88% 80% 16,916 79% 3% 55:45 (average) Secondary Schools: Forms I-V 65,800 13% 41% 2,932 59% 68% 66:34 2.04 Vocational training is provided in 19 trades which, in themselves, comprise clusters of occupations (e.g., plumbing, pipefitting, sheet metal work) in accordance with Zambian conditions. Eight Trades Training Insti- tutes (TTIs) and a Secretarial College offer full-time two-year pre-employ- ment courses. It is planned to enlarge the programs of five TTIs by adding commercial and secretarial classes in order to meet critical manpower demands in well-identified areas (para. 1.17). Total enrollment (June 1975) was 1,930 (9% girls) with an output (1974) of 550. 2.05 Technical Training is taught in three post-secondary technical institutions with Form V entry requirement: the Northern Technical College (Nortec) at Ndola, assisted by Bank Loan 592-ZA, the Zambian Institute of Technology (ZIT) at Kitwe, and the Evelyn Hone College of Applied Arts and Commerce (EHC) at Lusaka. Nortec offers trades training and post-secondary training for technicians and technologists (automobile, mechanical drafting, refrigeration, and structural fabrication courses). The 1975 enrollment was 462 students (all men). ZIT has industry-oriented programs comprising archi- tecture, civil engineering, computer programming, electrical and electronic engineering, metallurgy, mining, telecommunications, and mechanical engineer- ing generally of three years duration. In June 1975, ZIT had an enrollment of 834 students (11% women). The EHC is Zambia's most important single institution for pre-employment vocational training with 1,200 student places, of which 250 presently are unoccupied because of lack of boarding facilities. As a central institution, EHC is admitting students from all over the country as far as the limited boarding capacity allows. In 1975, five departments were operating (Academic and Applied Sciences; Para-medical; Hotel and Cater- ing, Visual and Creative Arts; Business and Secretarial Studies). In an Extension Studies Department another series of similar courses are offered. - 12 - 2.06 Medical t 4Enin s conducted on three levels, all receiving Bank assistance under Loan 900-ZA: (i) post-secondary professional training of 3-7 years duration; (ii) para-medical training for a period of 2-3 years; and (iii) training of medical auxiliary staff of 2-3 years duration for Form III leavers. Only about 16% of the 610 doctors working in the coun- try are Zambians. With increased production of UNZA and graduates retuirn- ing from abroad on Government and mining industry scholarships, the sit:uation will improve in favror of Zambian nationals in the profession in the early 1980's. The training of dentists and pharmacists remains a problem. For registered nurses, para-medical and medical auxiliary staff, shortages are being met through the expansion of existing training programs and the estab- lishm.ent of new training centers. Over 90% of auxiliary medical staff are Zambians. 2.07 Agricultural education is supervised by the Ministry of Rural Development (MRD) except at the higher level. Higher education in agricul- ture is offered by the School of Agricultural Sciences at the University of Zambia, graduating some 30-40 students a year. Specialized three-year diploma courses in agriculture, agricultural education, engineering, livestock, farm management, irrigation and nutrition are offered at the Natural Resources Development College (NRDC) in Lusaka. NRDC has a capacity of 600 student piaces but has a present enrollment of only 450 due to lack of facilities for laboratory and practical work in certain courses. Two-year certificate courses for agricultural and veterinary assistants are taught at three intermediate agricultural colleges. Government and church groups sponsor three additional farm schools. 2.08 In eight provincial Farm Institutes (FIs), in-service training of extension staff and three months of basic training for commodity demon- strators are carried out. FIs also conduct farmer training courses for their local districts but suffer from poor facilities and a high turnover of personnel. At the farm level, aside from 540 agricultural camps where extension activities are based, 27 Farmer Training Centers (FTCs) are active and each usually serves one or two districts. Training programs., however, have not been fully effective as revealed by a recently completed evaluation study. Details are provided in paras. 3.11-3.13. As indicated in paras. 1.19 and 1.21, the improvement of agricultural education and farmer training is a vital element for the implementation of the rural development program under preparation by the Government of Zambia. Therefore, it has high priority and requires urgent attention. 2.09 Higher Education is offered at the University of Zambia (UNZA) established in 1966 with an initial enrollment of 312 students. In 1974, total enrollment was 2,516, distributed over eight schools: Natural Science, Engineering, Medicine, Agricultural Sciences, Education, Law and Mining. The total academic staff comprised 307, with only 44 or 14% Zambians. Since its inception, UNZA has produced 860 graduates. All students enter one of the two basic schools: (a) the School of Natural Sciences for Medi- cine, Engineering, Agricultural Sciences and Mining; or (b) the School of Humanities for all other programs. After one year, they proceed to the spe- cialized school of their choice. In addition to degree programs, courses - 13 - leading to the Diploma in social work and several in education are offered, as are post-graduate programs leading to MA and MSc degrees. Academic stan- dards are high and the University is experiencing all of the problems of a young and growing institution. In mid-1975, it was announced that UNZA will be expanded and two additional campuses established: one in Ndola for the first two years of undergraduate studies and another in a rural area yet to be determined for the Schools of Agriculture, Veterinary and Forestry Sciences. A planning team has been appointed to work out details for in- clusion of the decentralization/expansion program in the TNDP. Non-Formal Education 2.10 Mass Media for educational purposes are still in the initial stage of development. School radio is on the air for 23 hours a week during 27 weeks of the year mainly offering English language courses supporting class- room teaching and external and correspondence course programs. Content and presentation of locally produced programs have not yet reached a very high qualitative level. More and better trained personnel are needed to make radio an efficient educational tool. Radio is considered potentially useful for extension work, literacy and women's education. Television remains an expensive item accessible only to few urban dwellers and has not yet penetrated rural areas. It offers an educational program of 20 hours weekly during 27 weeks of the year with little relevance to the cur- ricula of primary and secondary schools. As a printed learning aid, MOE is publishing "Orbit," a very attractively presented magazine but too sophisticated for young people. 2.11 Extension Service operates in 540 agricultural camps (farming areas) scattered all over the country, and is reaching the adult rural population through direct contact at farm sites and in cooperation with FTCs (para 2.08). The extension branch of the Ministry of Rural Development headed by the Deputy Director (Extension) has a full establishment of 15 superscale officers, 62 professional officers and is well staffed at senior levels, although only few posts are filled by Zambians. There are 34 vacancies out of 158 technical officer posts, and 60 vacancies out of the cadre of 720 junior technical officers and agricultural assistant posts. The 140 agricultural demonstra- tors are at full establishment, and there are an additional 760 commodity demonstrators. There is about one extension staff for every 385 families (or, excluding the three-month trained demonstrators, one extension staff member per 760 families). Although this appears to be a good ratio, many camps are run by demonstrators with inadequate training and the lack of recurrent funds for travel and transport facilities have reduced the contact intensity between extension agents and farmers over the 1968-1975 period. 2.12 Adult Education Centers under the responsibility of MOE exist in the four major cities of the Copperbelt. Their main activity is to offer "academic" courses leading to external grade 7 and Form III certificates and the training of typists/secretaries. In 1974, total enrollment in the Centers was 2,480. Academic courses were attended by 1,730 persons and 530 were enrolled in secretarial courses. About 65 attended foreign-sponsored shop and - 14 - saLes courses, leaving some 155 for adult education proper, all enrolled in hone economics, Aside from Adult Education Centers, there exist throughout the country some 730 evening schools with about 60,000 participants preparing for the external primary composite examination and 52 "supervised study groups" with 6,500 participants aiming at the external junior/secondary examination. There exist considerable difficulLies in recruiting qualified part-time teachers and with the exception of the secretarial courses, the efficiency of Adult Education Centers, the evening schools and the study groups, is limited. Completion rates for external courses are very low and the value of the whole programr remains, therefore, doubtful. Other important adult education insti- tutions are the Department of Community Development (DCD) of the MiniLstry of Labor and Social Services, and the Ecumenical Centers. The DCD is the main organizer of adult literacy programs and is specialized in rural development. Other activities of the DCD are to undertake minor self-help projects (water supply, school building, feeder roads) and to form rural women's clubs for learning home improvement. Ecumenical Centers operate combined training (homecraft and farming) and rehabilitation efforts for the benefits of adults, adolescents and c:hildren. 2.13 The "National Service" (created after Independence) is being reac- tivated for all primary and secondary school leavers. Students of higher edutcation may have to participate under a formula yet to be elaborated. The purpose of the Service is to give the youth, within the political doctrine of Zambian humanism, a taste for simple living and an understanding of agricul- ture and the rural environment (para. 1.19-1.21). No detailed plans for the Service have been made public as yet but the Ministry of Defense, which is responsible for the operation, is preparing a training scheme and several mod[el camps have been established. The Service is still in the testing stage and the first camps appear not to have been entirely successful. More expe- rience and institutionalization are needed before an evaluation is possible. In the short run, the Government is intending to use the Service as an ins- trument to absorb large groups of the unemployed primary school leavers recognized as a new major social problem (para. 1.19). To a smaller extent, the Zambian Youth Service of the MOE is providing community development oriented elementary training in building trades and agriculture for primary school leavers. 2.14 The educational activities of the mining industry are numerous and in the several mining training centers, there are about 2,000 persons in training or retraining in any given month. Altogether more than 4,000 persons each year participate in some type of training under the sponsor- ship of the mining industry. Issues in Education Development 2.15 Administration. With the rapid expansion of the school system, the strengthening of supporting educational services and the improvement of administrative structures became necessary. According to the stiptu- lations of the Education Act of 1966, MOE acts with the advice of a Na- tional Council of Education (including regional and local representatives - 15 - and of all major interest groups) and at the periphery, with regional and local councils. The advisory structure is not however providing significant returns because of a generally centralistic orientation of MOE and competi- tion, at the regional and local level, with the development committees. In order to improve administration, it is planned therefore to merge regional and local education councils with the development committees. Primary schools and adult education centers are administered and supervised by Regional Education Officers stationed in the nine educational regions. A unified educational reporting system has been introduced recently in order to increase the information flow from the periphery to the center and vice versa. Its usefulness seems to meet expectations but a later in-depth eval- uation will have to confirm this. The MOE itself is organized into Adminis- trative, Professional, Planning and Inspectorate Divisions and is adequately staffed. The Planning Division is functioning particularly well and is re- sponsible for many educational innovations. However, in certain Divisions, many higher-ranking specialized positions remain occupied by expatriate professionals on contract with the Government. Supporting educational ser- vices have yet to offer benefits due to the lack of coordination as a result, inter alia, of being located in Lusaka and other towns and also due to un- suitable or temporary substandard facilities. Coordination of the education sector with other sectors (industry, commerce, and agriculture for example) is not well developed, except for vocational training activities under the Department of Technical Education and Vocational Training (DTEVT), which cooperates with an advisory council including representatives of the major industries and trades. 2.16 Curricula and Teaching Methods. In Zambia, as in other African countries after Independence, it was felt that the content of learning at all levels should be aligned with the new national and social reality. Therefore, a Curriculum Development Unit was established in the MOE, and in 1971 a new "Zambian Primary Curriculum", stressing the pedagogical impor- tance of active learning and confrontation of the pupils with their immediate social and physical environment, was introduced. The new curriculum is now being taught in about 75% of all primary classes. In line with the importance of the rural segment of the population, emphasis was given to simple environ- mental science, homecraft, attitude formation towards manual labor and the establishment of permanent literacy in one of the seven major Zambian languages and English. However, primary education was not intended to be a terminal course and, therefore, did not prepare students for rural living and one of its main functions remains as a preparation to subsequent levels of education. The new curriculum is well supported by text books and other teaching materials but low teacher quality prevents its effective implementation. Lack of adequate supervision tempts many teachers to apply the new curriculum in a lax manner, in particular, with regard to the application of English as the medium of instruction. The majority of the teachers need to be retrained. The Chalimbana Teacher Training College (enrollment 250 teachers) is offering in-service training of three months to one year duration according to the individual needs of the teachers. Its capacity, however, is far too small to solve the problem of teacher up-grading within a reasonable time span. This problem is under discussion as a part of the proposed educational reform. - 16 - 2.17 At the lower secondary level as well, a significant change of cur- riculum was introduced, emphasizing the development of skills useful for later employment in industry and commerce (technical drawings woodwork, metali work, homecraft, commerce and agriculture). The change was promoted with Bank assistance which provided, inter alia, the necessary facilities. The assumption was that 95% of the boys and 70% of the girls would find employ- ment in the modern sectors of the economy after completion of Form III. To date, the new secondary curriculum is only taught in selected schools due to the lack of specialized teachers and much investment in workshops and equip- merit is therefore not yet brought to full use 1/. Expectations with reference to employment prospects of Form III leavers have as well proved to be far too optimistic (para. 1.19). The upper cycle of secondary schooL- ing continues to follow the pattern of the British Grammer Schooi but with increasing adjustments to Zambian needs. Examinations for the COSC, though based on the syllabi prepared by the Cambridge University Examination Syndicate, are largely conducted and administered by the MOE. In 1973. 22% of the candidates failed with the percentage of failures particularly high in General Science (57%), Mathematics (47%), History (51%) and Biology (43%). There exists the widespread opinion in Zambian educational circles that in order to improve examination results, standards should be lowered, a measure not supported by industry and post-secondary training institutions. Lately, there have been pronouncements which advocate a systematic rural orieltation of primary and secondary schools but the contents and specifications of this orientation are yet to be finalized (para. 2.30). In a general overview it can be stated that although the primary and secondary school curricula are generally satisfactory, their effective application leaves much to be desired and that a concerted effort to improve the quality of education deserves highest priority. The improvement of education services (para. 2.15) can assist towards this objective. 2.18 Efficieliu. The internal efficiency of the education system is constantly improv-ing but is not yet satisfactory at all levels. Intensive efforts over the past ten years to expand primary enrollment have resulted in the overcrowding of existing primary school facilities with double shift- ing and, in some urban areas, triple shifting. Also numerous schools are operated in dilap-idated and incomplete facilities. For secondary schools, the situation has greatly improved as a consequence of the Bank-assist:ed First and Third Education Projects (Loans 592-ZA and 900-ZA). Another prob- lem is that absenteeism is still frequent particularly in remote rural areas, Repeating of grades is controlled by a stipulation in the Education Act of 1966 and is permitted only one time in Grades 4 and 7 and in Form III and V, and only if studertt places are available. On the average, about 2% of all primary pupils repeat with a concentration of about 3% in Grade 4 and 9% in Grade 7. Pupils with very weak learning or motivation either voluntarily drop out or are phased out, in particular at the secondary level. The dropout rate is higher for pupils in the rural areas and for girls generally. Rural 1/ Construction and equipment of secondary educational facilities financed under Loans 592-ZA and 900-ZA are expected to be completed in 1978. - 17 - primary schools with limited classes are being expanded to offer the full course since it is realized that four years of primary education is neither sufficient for obtaining employment nor for acquiring permanent functional literacy. 2.19 As indicated in para. 2.03, the participation of the relevant age group in primary schools is about 88% and about 13% of the relevant age group in secondary schools. About 20% of Grade 7 leavers progress to the lower secondary level. A very selective examination at the end of the lower second- ary cycle eliminates 54% of the Form III students. This is done to reduce dropout in the upper secondary cycle to a minimum and under the assumption that most Form III leavers would find immediate employment. While a low dropout in the upper cycle has been achieved, the expectation with regard to the employment prospects of Form III leavers has not materialized (para. 1.19). For the full secondary course the completion rate is 41' which leads to an output quantitatively higher than the requirements of the labor market. But at the same time, because of decreasing secondary school leaver quality, industry and post-secondary institutions have great difficulties in finding candidates with qualifications for employment or enrollment in higher education. 2.20 The strongest impediment for a rapid improvement in the internal efficiency of the education system remains quality and adequate supply of Zambian teachers. Only 3% of the primary school teachers are non-Zambians (mostly long-standing residents in the country of non-European origin) with 80% of all primary teachers ranging in the lowest grades and pay scale. Since the pay scale is based upon qualifications, it can be used as a quality indicator. Zambian educational authorities fully realize that the quality of primary schooling is an essential prerequisite for the success of all subse- quent educational levels and the improvement of primary teacher quality is to be given high priority during the forthcoming decade. Plans to this effect are being formulated within the context of a sector review conducted by the Govern- ment (paras. 2.29). In numerical terms, primary teacher supply may be expected to soon reach an equilibrium with demand under the assumption of universal education to Grade 7 and a class size of 40. 2.21 At the secondary level, the teacher situation is quite different. In 1968, only 8% of secondary teachers were Zambians; at present this propor- tion has reached some 32%, with non-Zambian teachers recruited mainly from English-speaking countries throughout the world. However, since 1968, a decrease in the quality of expatriate teachers has been noted basically due to the young professional age of new recruits and as a result of a deter- ioration of the terms and conditions of employment, coupled with reduced job security. Science teaching is almost exclusively in the hands of expatriate teachers. Secondary teacher colleges and UNZA have a combined output of about 420 teacher graduates p.a. and this is expected to increase in 1977, when two new colleges are fully operational. Under the assumptions of: (i) a continua- tion of an increase in enrollment only reflecting population growth; and (ii) a gradual decrease of a present teacher attrition rate of 15% p.a. to 5% p.a., only by 1985 will all expatriate teachers be replaced by Zambians. As regards the development of universal education up to Form III (para. 2.26), this target could be reached only much later as under no circumstances could the present supply of secondary teachers be considered sufficient. As a first step, - 18 - however, the Government, in an attempt to prevent secondary school teachers from leaving the school system after only two or three years of service for better-paying jobs in the parastatal sector, has placed a ban on transfers and salary scales have been restructured throughout the public sector, which reduces the incentive for leaving the teaching profession for employment in the parastatals. 2.22 External Productivity. The quality of school leavers at all levels has been recently reviewed by employers as well as by the Government. Employ- ers and the teaching staff of vocational and post-secondary instituticns have observed a lack of preparedness of school leavers for their subsequent careers, In particular, many school leavers' knowledge of English is considered insufficient for employment in the modern sector. In secretarial and business courses, English is therefore the main subject taught. Another area where preparation is weak is in the sciences due to the lack of teachers (para. 2.21). Consequently, many training programs of the mining industry and other important employers are designed to compensate for the shortcomings of primary and secondary education. Teacher Training Institutes (TTIs), with Form III entry requirements, de facto, accept 50% of candidates with Form V status and the ERC and ZIT tend to admit to certain academic courses only candidates with consiLderably better examination records than formally required. 2.23 The principal objective of the Zambian education system has been to provide the trained manpower to elaborate and carry out the Government's development plans. In particular, Zambianization of the high and middle level manpower has been one of the major thrusts of government policy. However, as indicated in paras. 1.14 - 1.19, education outputs have not been in line with actual absorptive capacity of the labor market and while most high and middle level positions are occupied by expatriates, unemployment of primary and junior secondary school leavers is estimated to be about 140,000 and growing steadily. The requirements for jobs which previously necessitated a Form III level. education have gradually been "pushed up" and employers seek persons with a Form V certificate. To date, the MOE's Zambian Youth Service has taken some measures to provide training for some primary school leavers, Also, the National Service (para. 2.13) is expected to absorb a larger num- ber of these unemployed school leavers. On the other hand, well-identified manpower needs are not being met. 2.24 At present, of the estimated 5,000 managers of business concerns, nearly 70% are expatriates and there is only one Certified Public Accountant of Zambian nationality in the country. At the lower level, a large number of bookkeeping and secretarial positions are filled by expatriates mostly coming from the Asian subcontinent and the West Indies. In Lusaka alone, it is estimated that 500 secretaries of enterprises are expatriates. Lower level training in business and commerce is given in seven locations. The combined output of these institutions in 1975 was less than 300 and ali of them found employment immediately. Graduates of the two- and three-year courses in business and commerce from EHC, UNZA, ZIT and the Administration College of Chingola have also found employment subsequent to graduation. High level manpower particularly in the field of accountancy is in particularly short supply. - 19 - 2.25 Another critical area is that of high and middle level manpower for agricultural production and development in line with the Government's 4ntention to implement an effective rural policy. In this area, the need is not to expand supply, except for certain women specialists, because (as outlined at paras. 2.07-2.08 above) there are sufficient numbers of agricul- tural technicians at various levels, and post-secondary agricultural training institutions have an annual output of 120 which accords with estimated long- term needs. The need is for qualitative improvement. Agricultural techni- cians require urgent retraining and an effective scheme of in-service training of agricultural staff should be implemented. 2.26 Equity. There are no major inequalities in education opportuni- ties in Zambia. Access to all levels of education is not hampered by a punitive fee structure; in fact, no school fees are levied. In some rural areas (para. 2.03), only some 65% of primary pupils have an opportunity to advance to Grade 5. However, provisions for offering the full primary course (Grades 1-7) at all schools were made in the SNDP and are expected to be extended and completed as a part of the TNDP. In order to improve equity and to raise the quality of school leavers, the Government and the UNIP are contemplating to expand primary and lower secondary education to such an extent as to make universal schooling possible up to Form III (para. 2.30). However, no date has been set for the achievement of this target. As a heritage from pre-Independence times, three types of primary schools (Gov- ernment, Government-aided and private primary schools) remain which differ with regard to teacher quality and advancement in implementing the full curriculum. The Government, however, is undertaking strong efforts to unify the system and to assume full responsibility for the remaining Gov- ernment-aided and private schools with the intention of giving equal oppor- tunity to all children. Nevertheless, due to Zambia's continued dependence on highly specialized mining staff, a few fee-paying primary schools may in the future continue to serve the particular needs of the expatriate community. Migration within rural areas and between rural and urban areas (para. 1.08) has caused some unsatisfactory distribution of primary schools and urban children continue therefore to enjoy easier access to schools. Poor quality of English of rural school leavers is often a handicap through- out their educational and professional careers. The hope that differences in English language proficiency would ievel out during secondary schooling was not fulfilled and only at the university level did it tend to disappear. 2.27 The degree of geographical concentration of educational oppor- tunities at the secondary level has been calculated by the Bank staff. 1/ For the analysis, the division into the eight provinces was used. The T974 population of the age group between 14 and 18 was extrapolated by use of the 1969 Census of Population and the 1974 Sample Census of Population whose growth rates for specific areas were used to project the growth of age group relevant to secondary education. On the basis of this data, the measurements of education equity were derived by calculating the Representation Index 1/ A similar exercise would not be meaningful at the primary level since Zambia will soon be reaching universal primary education. - 20 - (RI) and the GINI coefFicient. 1/ The relevant age group population along with school capacity was distributed geographically as follows: Representation Provinces Percentage of Age Group Index 1. Copperbelt 29.29 1.292 2. Northern 11.34 0.845 3. Luapula 7.26 0.971 4. North Western 4.30 0.956 5. Eastern 8.29 0.692 6. Central 18.22 0.910 7. Southern 13.94 1.246 8. Western 7.35 0.837 The RI indicates that the Eastern province is particularly under-represeated. If the Government intends to raise the present enrollment and possibly ex- pand secondary education enrollments in order to obtain a more equitable distribution of secondary education, the student places should be provided to the Eastern province. Further expansion in Copperbelt and Southern dis- tricts would simply distort the situation further. However, overall second- ary education capacity is rather well distributed with a GINI coefficieni: calculated at 0.1161 - one of the lowest in Africa. In addition, regional imbalances are mostly compensated by the rule that boarding secondary schools (= 63% of all student places) admit 20% of students from outside the immediate attendance area. Differences in teacher quality do exist between urban and rural areas and because of the centralized pattern of higher education, urban dwellers have easier access to UNZA and other post-secondary institutions. 2.28 At all levels, girls are a minority and have a greater tendency to drop out, particularly in the rural areas. This fact was noted by the Government in 1968 and some elements of the egalitarian doctrine of Zambian humanism have been reinterpreted to allow temporarily, that better educational opportunities are given to the sex and specializations most in demand in the labor market. However, equal educational opportunities for girls remain as an important target of Zambian educational policy. The Sector Review and the Proposed Reform of the Sector 2.29 The growing feeling of the public and educational authorities that the education sector does not produce the attitudes and skills conducive to self-reliance and national development, has led to an overall review of the sector to pinpoint and analyze its shortcomings. As part of the review exercise, teams of experts have been analyzing the educational systems of 1/ Percent of distributed goods (e.g., capacity, teachers, recurrent costs per student). RI = Percent of distributional basis (e.g., age group population). - 21 - Cuba, Jamaica, the People's Republic of China and selected African countries. After a period of public discussions and analysis, and following ratification by the political entities scheduled by late 1976 at the earliest, the main conclusions will be used as a basis for educational program targets for the TNDP. Prior to the review, the UNIP provided guidelines for "national educa- tion policies for the decade 1974-1984", including 20 points, of which four are particularly important as follows: (a) to restructure the system of education and provide for ten years of universal education; (b) to improve and expand the programs of adult education; (c) to develop a locally based examination system in order to replace the COSC and; (d) to merge the func- tions of the local and Regional Councils of Education with those of the District and Provincial Development Committees. These points indicate that the fundamental policy as to (i) the length of basic education, (ii) the role of adult and nonformal education, (iii) the reorientation of the content of secondary education, and (iv) the administration of education, have already been decided. In addition, the President of Zambia has indicated that every student should develop a positive attitude towards productive work (guided by provisions in the curricula) and, prior to entering into higher education, should have participated in the National Service (para. 2.13). 2.30 The principles and strategies of the educational reform have been elaborated during the first half year of 1976. At present, a draft reform program is under discussion and by early 1977, the educational reform is expected to be finalized. The "theme" of the draft reform is "education for development" and the proposals lead to a combination of study and work. The most fundamental change envisaged at the first level of the system is the introduction of ten years of compulsory basic education for all children. Since present limited capacity of the primary school and junior secondary system would only allow the enrollment of a small additional number of pupils, changes in the school calendar (four instead of three terms) and a new "rotative" intake system are expected to provide additional capacity. The "rotative" system would mean that one-half of the children in grades 8-10 (Form I-III, according to the present system) would be attending school during two of the four terms while the other half would remain at home pursu- ing a course of "self-instructional" lessons or doing community project work under the guidance of local leaders. Through rotation, together with more intensive use of existing facilities, it is expected to double the enrollment in basic education and at the same time to increase the teacher force by only 20%. At the secondary level, changes are expected to be radical as well. Since Forms I to III would be integrated in and become grades 8-10 of basic education, "second stage education" would include various separate vocational and/or sub-professional courses (for agricultural assistants, nurses, junior accountants, medical assistants, etc.). The traditional general secondary course would lose its importance because of the terminal character of basic education as well as of "second stage education" and changes in the examina- tion structure. New curricula would be designed, including a strong element of civic education and introducing professionalization into the "second stage education." After graduation all "second stage" leavers would participate in the National Service before proceeding to employment or higher education. Third stage education (higher education) would provide a combination of professional courses and general education. - 22 - 2.31L Adult education, henceforth called continuing education, would as well undergo transformation. A new Department of Continuing Education would be responsible for the national literacy campaign, formal education by part- time study, skills training programs for adults and certain parts of the in-service training of teachers. Courses for adult education would be revised in order to reflect adult interests and experience and to allow participants to take, as external candidates, any of the new examinations of the reformed system. 2.32 The combination of "study and work"' would have higher educational and productive objectives. Every pupil or student would participate in pro- duction as an att-itude formation exercise, for occupational preparation and to add to the national output. There is much hope expressed in the draft reform to finance a substantial part of education costs from the proceeds of the students productive activities (cooperative farms, school-community projects, infrastructure projects, school building, school furniture manu- facturing), which would be geared to food production and to the development of cottage industry. 2.33 The new education system would require changes in teacher training and administration/organization of the sector. Teachers would have to play a leading role in organizing productive work and MOE would have to change its management procedures in order to keep administration efficient and flexible. Among other things, the Government's ongoing Zambianization, program (paras. 1.07 and 2.23) and its decision to merge the functions of the local and regional educational council with those of the district and provincial development committees are steps towards attaining better administration and management. It is expressed at several places of the draft reform that the proposed educational changes can only be achieved by "greater sacrifices and more intensive efforts by all of the people" and by the creation of a spirit of volunteerism, in particular on the part of the teachers. The Party is expected to play the major role in launching and sustaining the refcrm. Costs and financing of the reform proposals are yet to be worked out; it is expected that they would be defined after the essential principles of the draft reform have been accepted by UNIP and the public opinion. 2.34 The reform is expected to lead to the formulation of a broad sector investment program as part of the Third National Development Plan. It is noted that the reform explicitly confirms the right of each Zambian to at least ten years of basic education and that, in planning for education, social demand considerations will prevail over manpower considerations. The imple- mentation period for the reform is foreseen to be one decade. 2.35 From the outset, however, it appears that the main constraint on the implementation of the reform is the present and projected shortage of teachers and instructors at all levels but primary education (paras. 2.21 and 2.22). Also, while the expansion and improvements of adult education could be based upon the improvement and a more effective utilization of existing schools, a shortage of physical facilities and financial restraints are likely to prevent - 23 - the growth and broadening of junior secondary education to attain universal education of ten years, even after the introduction of the "rotative" intake system (para. 2.30). 2.36 Estimated education recurrent expenditure requirements during the period 1976-1986 are presented in the following table. These estimates are based on the assumption that compulsory education up to Form III (or grade 10) will be provided beginning in 1977. Based on 1976 prices, recurrent expendi- ture would amount to about K 240 million in 1981, which is more than double the estimated recurrent expenditure in 1976. By 1986, the recurrent expendi- ture would increase to about K 296 million. These estimates include a 20% nominal increase in teacher salaries as authorized by the recent implementa- tion of revised salary schedules, along with moderate increases in student requisites. Based on these financial estimates, MOEC's total recurrent expen- diture from 1976 to 1986 would increase at about 11.1% p.a. in real terms. By 1986, how, ever, total education recurrent expenditure would reach 37% of the budget which is an extremely high proportion. On purely financial grounds, it appears that the Government's stated policy of universal and compulsory education up to Form III is highly improbable, unless the cost-saving devices promoted as a part of the reform prove to be effective. ENROLLMENT (in 000's) AND RECURRENT EXPENDITURE (IN K MILLION) 1976 1981 1986 Enroll- Expendi- Enroll- Expendi- Enroll- Expendi- ment ture ment ture ment ture Primary Education 950.0 55.1 1,230.5 71.4 1,422.9 82.5 Secondary Education 78.0 22.6 440.0 132.0 575.9 172.7 Teacher Training 3.0 2.5 10.8 9.0 10.8 9.0 Others - 22.4 28.0 32.0 Total 1,031.0 102.6 1,681.3 240.4 2,009.6 296.2 Total Government Recurrent Expenditure 540.1 657.0 799.3 Education Recurrent Expenditure as a Percentage of Total Government Recurrent Expenditure 19 36 37 - 24 - 2.37 An alternative enrollment projection was developed by Bank staff to examine the financial implication of more realistic targets. This projection envisages a 100% participation rate in primary, a progression rate of 18% to junior secondary education between 1976 and 1981 and 50% from 1981 to 1986. The recurrent expencditure implications of the afore-mentioned projections in- dicate the following: ENROLLMENT (In 000's) AND RECURRENT EXPENDITURE (IN K MILLION) 1976 1981 1986 Enroll- Expendi- Enroll- Expendi- Enroll- Expendi- ment ture ment ture ment ture Primary Education 950.0 55.1 1,230.5 71.4 1,422.9 82.5 Secondary Education 78.0 23.4 130.2 39.0 303.1 90.9 Teacher Training 3.0 2.5 5.9 4.9 6.6 5.4 Others -- 22.4 28.0 32.0 Total 1,031.0 103.4 1,366.6 143.3 1,732.6 210.8 Total Government Recurrent Expenditure 540.1 657.0 799.3 Education Recurrent Expenditure as a Percentage of Total Government Recurrent Expenditure 19 22 26 Recurrent education expenditures would account for a comparatively reasonable proportion of the budget. Furthermore, their projected share of government total recurrent expenditure could be reduced if the cost-saving devices depicted above are successful. The Role of the Bank in Zambian Education Development 2.38 The Bank has had a significant role in assisting the education sector in Zambia. Excluding the education component of the Lusaka Sites and Services Project (Loan 1057-ZA), three education projects are provid- ing improved facilities for some 70,000 student places including about 40,000 new student places. Over 85% of the student places to be provided and/or improved under these projects are in large comprehensive secondary schools with facilities for the teaching of practical subjects (para. 2.17). - 25 - Of the remaining 15%, the majority are for expansion of the University of Zambia. The three projects touch only very slightly upon agricultural edu- cation and do not provide assistance to training in management, administra- tion, accounting and bookkeeping. Qualitative advances were promoted, inter alia, by the Bank's financial aid for technical assistance specialists and fellowship training. 2.39 Zambia is one of the countries of the Eastern Africa Region where broad sector lending for education can be contemplated. At the moment, how- ever, there are three major obstacles: (a) the formulation of specific programs suitable for a sector lending approach awaits the finalization of the reform and of a well-conceived investment proposals for the achievement of its objectives and targets; (b) project implementation capacity requires strength- ening in particular as it concerns the development of trained local staff to replace the expatriate personnel; and (c) as there are various uncertaintities and difficulties in the construction industry, a comprehensive study of the industry should be carried out in order to determine, inter alia, ways and means to increase the industry's capacity to be in a position to implement construction programs (including school building programs) at reasonable costs. 2.40 There are, however, urgent and immediate priorities which will not be affected by the findings of the education sector review and which will meet well-identified manpower and training needs and provide the infrastruc- ture necessary for introducing the reforms being contemplated. On the basis of these priorities, the Government and the Bank have developed an interim investment program which would round off programs initiated under the previous three projects and improve training in the areas of agriculture and commerce. 2.41 The following priorities and recommendations are derived from this analysis: (a) the quality of agricultural education and farmer training should be urgently improved to assist in the implementation of the rural development program (paras. 2.07-2.08); (b) business education and management training need expansion and improvement to meet well-identified manpower gaps (paras. 2.24); and (c) the administrative system of MOE needs institutional strengthening and better accommodation for the many existing services, allowing for better supervision and coordination (para. 2.15). ZAMBIA STRUCTURE OF EDUCATION SYSTEM (1975) UNIVERSITY OF ZAMBIA Medlicire Employment and/or AgricLilture Non-formal training Employment and or ~~~~~~~~~~~~Arts, Education, Hurmardities, Employment and / or NtrlSine Non-formal training . Sciec Primary Teacher Secondary Teacher Training Training {1 2 3< PRIMARY LOWER SECONDARY UPPER SECONDARY (Graldos) (Forms) Certificate Course in Various courses for Business and Commerce clerical sypts, Diploma in Accounting Adult Education National Service Technician Courses, Zambian Youth Service Vocational Training Diversified Occupational Programs TTIs~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~R { 3 H i} ~~~~~~Technologist Courses, A Grade 7 Composite Examination 1 2 B Junior Secondary School Leaving Examination C Cambridge Overseas School Certificate Agricultural Colleges Diploma in Agriculture (ariministered and conducted by MOE) (Certificates) and related fields World Bank-16226 ZAMBIA- EDUCATION PYRAMID, 1974 Pop IUI0 lo1 .1 of Age (eselMated) Total Level Age Group 25 67,000 15 3 24 70,000) 7 1 23 72,000 BOYS 7GIRLS c 22 74,000 223 55 3,335 0 7 21 78,000 464 151c 2( 82,000 696 253 M~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 19 85,000 1,050 333 1 8 86v ,000 4,938 1,608 -C 14,1 27 . v 7.8 17 C400 17 94,000 5,6'08 ::1,973 I r ' i" _ . W ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~12.9 16 101,000 9,824 : . 5,349 >2 IS h 11)000 065 6,145 51,637 o 15.7 14 119,000 12,129 7,125 _ 13 129,000 5,576 35,315 1.' 136,1900 56,203 39,904 ,, 138,000 l 156,613 - 43,463 1() 1 92,100 | |72,723. 161,055 858,191 88,0 9 140,000 75,146 66,978 8811 68. 11 4 3,000 75,272 70,247 1 14 /,000 75,571 70,984 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Thousands Ft ll Iiii, , e!rl, I,rn,,i t Ar1e (3110) population0 SOURCE Ministry of Education, Zambia Educational Statistics, September, 1976. World Bank- 16271(R) ZAMBIA - FOURTH EDUCATION PROJECT PRIMARY SCHOOL ENROLMENT - 1965-1974 ALL SCHOOLS YEAR b2 3 T t2RADEI GRADE 2 GRADE 3 GRAD GRADE 5 GRADE 6HD7 G.S .N TOTALS 43,7 45 40,075 39,t676 40,1'34 23,9'+3 21, 12,1 9,1 1965 j 4i,151 35,,851 331,274 31,387 15,368 12,742 5,926 3,7S3 179,462 _______ 8189 __7,'_f 7 90 1 d _3, _ '332t 1S
Группа Всемирного банка · Staff Appraisal Report
Zambia - Fourth Education Project
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