Mexico - Fertilizer Project

DOCUMENT OF INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT Not For Public Use Report No. P-1625-ME REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED- LOAN TO NACIONAL FINANCIERA, S.A. AND GUANOS Y FERTILIZANTES DE MEXICO, S.A. WITH THE GUARANTEE OF UNITED MEXICAN STATES FOR A FERTILIZER PROJECT May 6, 1975 This report was prepared for official use only by the Bank Group. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report.  Currency Unit - Peso (Mex$) US$1.00 = Mex$12.50 Mex$1.00 = US$0.08 Mex$1 million = TJs$80,uOO Fiscal Year - January 1 to December 31  INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT AND RECOF19ENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO NACIONAL FINANCIERA, S.A. AND GUANOS Y FERTILIZANTES DE MEXICO, S.A. W4ITH TIIE GUARANTEE OF UNITED MEXICAN STATES FOR A FERTILIZER PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed loan in various currencies equivalent to US$50 million jointly to Nacional Financiera, S.A. (NAFINSA) and Guanos y Fertilizantes de Mexico, S.A. (Guanomex) to assist in financing two new urea plants and the expansion of an existing insecticide plant. The loan would be guaranteed by United Mexican States and would have a term of 14 years, including 3-1/2 years of grace, with interest at 8-1/2 percent per annum. NAFINSA would charge Guanomex a fee of 3-1/2 percent per annum on the outstanding amount of the loan, bringing the cost of the loan to Guanomex to 12 percent per annum. PART I - THE ECONOMY 2. Some of the major structural features of the Mexican economy - past, present and future - were analyzed in "The Economy of lexico: A Basic Report" (192-ME), distributed to the Executive Directors on June 26, 1973. Short-run trends in 1973-74 were covered in "Mexico: Current Economic Posi- tion and Prospects," distributed to the Executive Directors on September 27, 1974. Another updating report on the economy will be prepared by a mission which is scheduled to visit Mlexico in July this year. Country data sheets are contained in Annex I. 3. For the three most recent of the six decades since the Revolution of 1910, the Mexican economic system, measured in terms of GDP growth, has been outstandingly successful. Since 1940, the annual average growth rate has exceeded 6 percent. And from the mid-1950s to 1972 Mexico was among the few countries in the developing world to combine sustained and rapid growth with monetary and balance of payments stability. Inflation averaged less than 5 percent a year and the dollar value of the peso was maintained at the level fixed in 1954. 4. Rapid and sustained growth was the product of successful policies affecting the mobilization and use of both private and public sector re- sources. The role of government in promoting economic growth was expressed on the one hand in the development of strategic infrastructure and major utility industries and on the other in policies which featured price support, import control and agrarian reform measures in the agricultural sector and external protection and the provision of fiscal incentives in the industrial sector.  5. The relative emphasis of public and private investment was however reflected in changes in the structure of output and employment and the expan- sion of manufacturing industry. Agriculture nevertheless continued to be the chief source of employment and in 1970 accounted for 39 percent of the eco- nomically active population. 6. In spite of rapid and sustained economic growth over the last two decades, the combination of a high demographic growth rate - about 3.4 per- cent per year - and, until fairly recently, primarily import substituting industrial policies, have prevented an adequate absorption of the labor force in productive emplovment. Industrial growth has been quite substantial - about 8 percent annually over the past twqo decades - but could have been even faster if industrial and trade policies had been primarily focused to exploit- ing 'Mexico's unique export opportunities originating in Its contiguity to a large industrial market in which labor costs are a multiple of those in Mexico. It was only in the early 'seventies that some major steps were taken to develop manufacturing exports on a large scale -- the system of drawbacks on domestic taxes paid on exports and the "border industries" regime were introduced at that time, and these have been so highly successful as to sug- gest that a lot more could still be done. As it is, 40 percent of the labor force is estimated in either marginal occupations - relatively unproductive and hence poorly paid - or openly unemployed. 7. The Mexican strategy for development has, in the past, relied on a combination of public action and private profit. The government has played a highly important role in this process, both as a promoter of key sectors and as the setter of a regulatory and institutional framework within which private and social groups could compete and contend, but which was both firm enough and flexible enough to ensure overall continuity and stability. As a formula for growqth this sytem has served Mlexico well, but it has also led to a sharpening of contrasts in income and wealth between people and among regions. This was not an entirely incidental by-product of the process of growtth; the share of the government in the economy was kept down quite deliberately for many years, and evidently the scope of redistributive policies was limited as long as tax ratios as low as 8 - 10 percent - among the lowest in the world - were maintained. The government played a crucial role in the development of private commercial agriculture through its irrigation and credit policies and of industry through the provision of infrastructure, education, social legis- lation and financial policies, but it did not concern itself primarily with the problems of the poorest sections of the population. While the land re- form of 1917 - widely spread in the 'thirties - was adhered to, the absence of abundant fiscal resources prevented major programs to improve the economic status of the beneficiaries of the land reform. The present government, how- ever, came to power on a program of combining past growth policies with much greater efforts in favor of the rural poor, and has launched a number of ambi- tious initiatives in this direction. Their continuity and viability will de- pend, inter alia, on the government's continued willingness to mobilize fiscal resources to support these programs. So far the record is impressive: the ratio of public revenues to GNIP which in 1970 stood at 11.2 percent, for 1975 is estimated at 15.7 percent.  - 3 - 8. The attempts which have been made by the present administration (1970-76) to alleviate the poverty of the countryside and to redress some of the imbalances between rural and urban Mexico have several dimensions. They include a revised Agrarian Reform Law (1971) and a new Federal Water Law (1972), both of which are intended to promote a more equitable distribution of basic agricultural resources. These measures have been complemented by changes in the sectoral allocation of available agricultural credit in order to increase the share of low Income farmers and ejidatarios (members of ejidos, which are a form of collective land tenure based on usufruct), the introduction of higher support prices for basic foodcrops and increased government outlavs for agricultural research, training and extension services, with particular regard to the needs of peasant farmers. Perhaps one of the most significant innovations has been a new program for integrated rural development with which the World Bank has been associated from an early stage. 9. The social and economic needs of the rural sector have not however monopolized government attention; those of urban-industrial development have also been stressed in the form of heavy public investment in basic industries - delayed during the 1960s - and an innovative low-income housing program which has been financed with a five percent payroll tax. Productive investment has thus been complemented, in the urban as well as the rural economy, by insti- tutional changes and public expenditures designed to improve the living conditions of the poor. This parallel effort has however generated several problems of short-run economic management. 10. In 1971, after monetary and balance of payments pressures had emerged during the previous year, the (then new) government took stringent action to control demand with the effect that the CDP growth rate fell to 3.4 percent by comparision with a decade average of 7.1 percent in the 1960s. In 1972, renewed expansion was stimulated by public expenditure and the GDP growth rate rose to 7.4 percent. There was another year of rapid growth (7.6 percent) in 1973 - but this time associated with an increase of 21 percent in prices (CDP deflator). Inflation was not the only novelty; private savings, which in the recent past had helped finance sustained growth, increased by only 11 percent, compared with an average rate of 18 percent in 1965-71; the inflow of private capital was replaced by a net outflow, and vrivate investment, particularly in the industrial sectors, slackened, reflecting some uncertainty on the part of the business community. In the public sector there was a record fiscal deficit - amounting to 5.6 percent of GDP by comparision with an average of 2.7 percent in 1965-71. A major share of the limited volume of real savings was preempted to finance part of this deficit while net external borrowing of US$1.2 billion (2.4 percent of GCTP) was deployed to finance the rest. These trends were inevitably reflected in the balance of payments where the current account deficit rose to 3.0 percent of GDP (by comparison with an average of 2.0 percent in 1965-71). 11. Noting these trends, the authorities had, by mid 1973, put a re- strictive monetary and credit policy into effect and complemented this with what was originally intended to be an austere public finance program for FY 1974. Taken together, these measures were expected to restrict demand and to  - 4 - reduce both inflation and the size of the Government's current account deficit. The provisional results for 1974 indicate that whereas the former objective was achieved, the latter was not. Monetary and credit policies were, on the whole, carried out as planned. The rate of increase of prices thus decelerated from April onwards, and a positive differential between Mexican and foreign interest rates was re-established by the end of the year although credit was not allo- cated as originally intended because the public sector again pre-empted a large part of the available quantity. Higher than planned public expenditures and lower than expected revenues meant moreover that the fiscal deficit was larger than foreseen as were the growth rates of aggregate demand and real imports. The deficit in the balance of payments on current account thus amounted to 4.2 percent of GDP rather than the intended 2.8 percent. Net public borrowing rose to US$2.9 billion of which US$1.8 billion was required to finance the fiscal deficit, the remainder being needed for balance of pay- ments purposes including coverage of large capital outflows. 12. The government's economic program for 1975 incorporates a major effort to mobilize additional public sector resources, the increase in reve- nues being estimated at more than 3.0 percent of GDP. Monetary and credit policies will continue to be restrictive although, given attractive interest rates, domestic savings are expected to rise. Public expenditures - both capital and current are expected to increase significantly in real terms and the planned fiscal deficit amounts to 4.3 percent of GDP, three quarters of which will be externally financed. Planned internal public borrowing thus is modest, which means that the private sector will receive a major share of available credit and private investment is likely to increase. The resource gap is expected to decline from 2.1 percent to 1.3 percent of GDP - an improve- ment which reflects the growth of petroleum exports (projected at around US$450 million for 1975). The current account deficit is estimated at 3.5 percent of GDP. The 1975 program is thus designed to increase public and private investment and public consumption whilst reducing private consumption by means of taxation and a voluntary increase in private savings. From an equity standpoint the recent tax measures are progressive. The 1975 program is thus consistent with the government's overall economic objectives, and if successfully implemented, should increase the productive capacity of the eco- nomy whilst furthering the cause of distributive justice. 13. On December 31, 1973, Mexico's outstanding disbursed public debt of more than one year was US$5.2 billion. Net medium and long term public bor- rowing in 1974 of US$2.3 billion reflects heavy reliance on external as well as internal capital to finance the fiscal deficit and some borrowing - as in 1973 - to offset private capital movements. 14. Annex I, Page 4, shows that 41.3 percent of public external capital contracted in 1968-72 was borrowed from private banks and that international organizations accounted for the next largest share (22.2 percent). The World Bank accounted for 14.7 percent of all commitments. New debt contracted in 1974 however was obtained at higher interest rates and on shorter maturities than in the recent past, in the light of a severe contraction in international capital markets.  -5- 15. During 1975 it is expected that net public external borrowing of more than one year will be of the order of US$2.4 billion, which would amount to 3.1 percent of estimated GDP compared with 3.6 percent in 1974. This level of indebtedness is consistent with Mexico's projected future capacity to service the interest and amortization payments, taking account of the ex- pected growth of real exports in the medium term. The behavior of petroleum production and exports is an important element in these projections. The size of Mexico's oil reserves has not yet been determined and published estimates differ widely from the official ones. However, taking account of the range of available reserve estimates, as well as of prospective avail- abilities of financial and physical investments in the sector, the outlook for production and exports in 1975-80 appears to be good. After allowing for increases in domestic consumption, exportable surpluses can be expected to rise each year. On present expectations, by 1980, the net export surplus of crude and petroleum products could be around US$1,000 million equivalent. Mexico's debt service ratio was 24.5 percent in 1973. The estimate for 1974 is 18.0 percent. Assuming that the average terms of future debt improve slightly by comparison with those recently obtained, the debt service ratio is expected to be lower than 25 percent through 1980. The Bank's share in public debt outstanding and disbursed at the end of 1973 was approximately 15.3 percent and its share in debt service payments was about 7.7 percent. These shares are not expected to change significantly in the remainder of the decade. 16. Mexico is thus creditworthy for borrowing on conventional terms provided the government exercises due restraint in monetary, credit and fiscal policies; its recent actions in designing the 1975 economic program suggest it intends to do so. 17. In order to meet its financing needs to assure continued growth with equity in the future, Mexico will have to strengthen its fiscal effort and to supplement that effort with substantial external borrowing. Given that the country's diversified industrial structure is capable of supplying a good part of its capital goods requirements, some local cost financing by external agencies is necessary. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN MEXICO 18. With the US$50 million loan for Integrated Rural Development Project I signed on November 15, 1974, the Bank has made 38 loans to Mexico for a total of US$1888 million net of cancellations. At the end of March 1975 the Bank held US$1540 million, including US$561 million not yet disbursed. Two more loans, both in agriculture and totalling US$260 million, were approved by the Executive Directors earlier this month. Most of the Bank loans have been made for power, industry, transport, water supply, roads and agriculture. The execution of Bank financed projects has, on the whole, been satisfactory.  - 6 - However, financial performance criteria have not been met under the Fourth Power Sector loan. The matter is being discussed with the Government and remedial measures are expected shortly. 19. IFC has made twelve investment commitments in Mexico, amounting to US$54.3 million, of which as of March 31, 1975, US$36.3 million had been sold, repaid or cancelled. The balance, US$18.0 million held bv the Corpora- tion, consists of US$15.9 million in loans and US$2.1 million in equity. Annex II contains a summary statement of Bank loans and IFC commitments as of March 31, 1975 and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. 20. The main objectives of Bank lending in Mexico are: (i) to support policies and programs leading to a wider distribution of the benefits of economic growth; (ii) strengthen policies and programs leading to continued economic growth, both by investing in projects that directly or indirectly make significant contributions to output and employment and by supporting changes that will make institutions function more effectively; (iii) help resolve critical adjustment problems that emerge from Mexico's continued growth; and (iv) transfer sufficient resources to complement Mexico's quite appreciable domestic savings and provide the necessary funds for economic and social investments in a framework of internal and external financial stability. 21. The composition of recent and prospective Bank lending to Mexico follows the evolution of the Government's and the Bank's perception of Mexico's development needs, both in terms of their sectoral mix and in terms of policy emphasis. Thus, the Las Truchas steel mill, for which the Bank made a loan in FY74, is expected not only to further Mexico's industrial growth in an effi- cient manner but also to support the government's program of industrial de- centralization. Similarly, the Airports Development Project (FY74) is designed to promote rapid and reliable domestic long-distance passenger transportation and to contribute to the government's policy of regional integration. The earlier (FY73) Mexico City Water Supply Project also pursues multiple objec- tives. Responding to the need for expanding urban infrastructure, particularly in low income areas, it has helped create a specialized institution for effi- cient management of scarce water resources that cuts across existing functional and administrative boundaries. 22. In view of the difficult structural problems of Mexico's agricul- ture and the sector's crucial importance to the country's further development, the Bank has substantially expanded and diversified its support for agricul- ture. Consistent with the overall framework of country and sector objectives, a three-tier approach is being followed. First, Bank support is aimed at expanding and strengthening irrigation and agricultural credit programs so as to meet the demands of a rapidly growing population more adequately and to generate foreign exchange for rising import requirements. Second, to assist the government in its efforts to raise the incomes of the rural poor and improve their standard of living through a combination of directly productive, productive support and social infrastructure investment. Third, to strengthen Mexico's institutional capability to use scarce agricultural resources more efficiently.  - 7 - 23. The Bajo Rio Bravo/Bajo San Juan Irrigation Project presented to the Executive Directors on Mtay 8, 1975 is one of the most important under- takings of the present administration to bring agricultural production back in line with domestic and foreign demand. It will also serve to improve the incomes of a substantial number of poor farmers. At the same time, the Papaloapan Integrated Rural Develonment Project approved last fall, and the Second Integrated Rural Development Project (PIDER) presented along with the Bajo Rio Bravo/Bajo San Juan Project, both have their primary focus on improv- ing the living standards of the rural poor through integrated, multi-sectoral development. 1We are also exploring the possibilities of assisting the govern- ment in expanding agricultural education and in developing Mexico's lagoon fisheries. In addition, we plan to support the formulation and imnlementation of an applied research program for the tropical Gulf zone, an operation that would lay the foundation for the future development of tropical agriculture for which a substantial potential exists. The Bank is also helping to strengthen MIexico's resource management through the National Water Study which will provide the basis for a rational water development policy. Finally, we are exploring the possibilities of reinforcing the government's efforts to foster regional development and industrial deconcentration. 24. The present fertilizer project will be a valuable addition to Mlexico's manufacturing sector. Through import-substitution and its potential for ex- ports it will contribute to reducing the country's trade gap; it will, at the same time, supplement the Bank's involvement in the agricultural sector by helping to assure the availability of a vital input at stable prices. The proposed locations of the project plants, away from the major industrial centers, would further support the government's policy of regional industrial decentralization. PART III - THE FERTILIZER SECTOR IN MEXICO General 25. Since assumption of office in 1970, the present administration in Mlexico has demonstrated its commitment to a new policy of agricultural and rural development. The more important aspects of its comprehensive and generally wrell-designed strategy are: (i) promulgation of new legislation aiming at a more rational and equitable resource utilization: (ii) reform and strengthening of the agricultural support services, technical and organ- izational assistance, credit and marketing; (iii) expansion of irrigation and irrigation rehabilitation investment programs; (iv) creation of the National Water Plan to formulate comprehensive water management policies; (v) implementation of integrated rural development program; and (vi) institu- tionalization of the coordinating mechanisms among government agencies to facilitate such programs.  - 8 - 26. These new directions in the government policy have been in response to its awareness of the increasing gap in living standards between the urban and rural population and the disturbing trend in agricultural production dur- ing the last decade. The agricultural sector had a growth record of more than 5 percent per annum over the period 1940 - 1965. In that period it managed to satisfy the demand of a rapidly growing population and to contribute to Mexico's exports. Since 1965, however, the average annual rate of growth has only been 2.5 percent, one percentage point less than the population growth rate and only half the rate of growth of effective demand for foodstuffs. Given the limita- tions on Mexico's physical resource endowment, growth in agricultural produc- tion in the short- and medium-term will primarily be a function of progress in utilizing more effectively resources already under exploitation. Adequate use of fertilizers will necessarily play an important role in this process. Fertilizer Demand and Production 27. At current levels of fertilizer consumption, Mexico, with 29 kilo- grams per hectare (ha.), has an average rate of application well below the world average (50 kilograms per ha.), even if twice the average of the devel- oping countries. The average for Mexico, however, masls a wide variation in rates of fertilizer application, which range from near optimum levels in flat irrigated areas in the northwest to none in large rain-fed areas, and points to substantial untapped sources of consumption. Thus, out of the total cropped area of 15 - 16 million ha. in Mlexico, onlv 5.7 million ha. currently receive fertilizers while it is estimated that 57 percent of the rest, another 5.7 million ha., should also be fertilized. Consumption of fertilizer has been increasing at an average annual rate of 10 percent between 1963 - 1973, rising from a level of 279,000 nutrient tons in 1963 to 751,000 nutrient tons in 1973. The 1973 consumption level consisted of 75 percent nitrogen, 21 percent phosphate and 4 percent potash. Consumption of nitrogen in that year is broken down into 32 percent ammonia for direct application as fertilizer, 26 percent ammonium sulfate and 23 percent urea. The balance represents amonium nitrate and complex fertilizers. 28. The effective demand for solid fertilizers in Mexico has been almost wholly satisfied by its well developed fertilizer industry underpinned by substantial indigenous reserves of natural gas. At the end of 1973 Mexico had proven reserves of natural gas estimated at 11 trillion standard cubic feet, which have been further augmented by new discoveries in Chiapas and Tabasco in 1974. The Government has budgeted US$248 million equivalent to develop these finds by 1976. Based on the availability of natural gas, domestic production of finished fertilizer has grown at an average rate of 13.2 percent in 1963 - 1973 and the 1973 production level of 748,000 nutrient tons practically equalled the consumption in that year. Nevertheless, in terms of finished products, Mexico still imports some supplies of nitrogenous ferti- lizers and its entire requirements of potash, which are partially offset by its urea exports averaging 24,500 nutrient tons annually since 1968. The country's principal imports supporting its fertilizer industry, however, remain phosphate rock as a raw, material for phosphate, and ammonia for direct application as fertilizer and as an intermediate product for further processing.  -9- 29. Manufacture of ammonia, considered a basic petrochemical, is the exclusive right of Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), a publicly owned agency with a legal monopoly for the exploration and exploitation of the country's hydro- carbon resources and the production of basic petrochemicals. Pemex is cur- rently operating 4 ammonia plants with a rated capacity of 472,000 nutrient tons per year (TPY) and is achieving a satisfactory capacity utilization of over 90 percent. Since the mid-60s, as a result of Government policy to rationalize and consolidate the fertilizer sector, manufacture of fertilizer end-products is the responsibility of another publicly owned agency, Guanos y Fertilizantes de Mexico (GUANOMEX). The only exceptions to this arrangement are supplies of ammonium sulphate obtained as a by-product in the domestic production of caprolactam and steel and triple superphosphate produced by Fertilizantes Fosfatados Mexicanos (FFM), a private sector enterprise, which is also the country's principal producer of phosphoric acid based mainly on imported phosphate rock. 30. Guanomex currently operates several small chemical plants producing a range of insecticides and other chemicals and 16 fertilizer plants with a total installed capacity of 437,300 TPY of nitrogen and 122,200 TPY of phos- phate. The manufacturing units are well run, giving an average capacity utilization in 1973 of 93 percent in terms of phosphate and 80 percent in terms of nitrogen. The lower average for nitrogen units is symptomatic of aging equipment in some of the earlier plants and shortage of ammonia supplies and obscures the satisfactory operating results achieved by the four large scale fertilizer units commissioned by Guanomex in the last six years. 31. Consumption projections of nitrogen through 1985 prepared by Guanomex suggest an average annual growth of around 9 percent. This estimate is based on a set of regression equations fitted to data for fertilizer con- sumption in the last twenty years and approximates the demand forecast derived from the model on Mexican agriculture jointly developed by the Bank and the Government of Mexico. The model does not, however, take into account the im- proved role of extension services and other promotional measures which could result in higher fertilizer consumption, mainly by small farmers (see para- graph 32 below). A well designed credit and extension program could raise fertilizer consumption to an annual rate of 11 percent. However, even dis- regarding such changes likely to result in more extensive fertilizer use, the consumption of nitrogen is expected to rise from 560,000 tons in 1973 to about one million tons in 1980, going up to 1.5 million tons in 1985. The 1980 proj- ected level of nitrogen consumption includes 355,000 tons of urea and 261,000 tons of ammonia for direct application as fertilizer. The overall forecast requirement of 1.3 million tons of nitrogen in ammonia in 1980, including 1.0 million tons required for processing into solid fertilizers, will be met by the existing and the three new Pemex plants either currently under construction or in an advanced stage of planning. The two urea plants included in the project will, by 1978, increase the existing urea capacity of 205,000 tons of nitrogen by another 379,500 tons. On the basis of this production capacity, the estimated production in 1980 will be around 507,000 nutrient tons. This output, in addition to satisfying the country's conservatively estimated  - 10 - urea requirements, may generate an exportable surplus averaging about 120,000 tons of nitrogen per annum between 1979-1982. The surplus is likely to be marketed in Central and South America and most of it will go to El Salvador, Costa Rica and Guatemala for distribution in those countries through Guanomex's subsidiaries. Urea and ammonia fertilizer production and consumption, in the past and as projected in the future, appear below: Ammonia (,000 Nutrient Tons) Year Production + Import - Export = Consumption 1970 412 61 473 1973 458 204 662 1975 610 109 - 719 1977 1,021 - 198 823 1980 1,320 11 - 1,331 1985 1,550 19 - 1,569 Urea 1970 73 - 4 69 1973 167 - 36 131 1975 173 2 - 175 1977 177 54 - 231 1980 507 - 152 355 1985 526 128 - 654 Fertilizer Distribution 32. A Government Decree in 1965 gave Guanomex exclusive rights to import and market all fertilizers in the domestic market. Exports are handled both by Guanomex and FFM, although the latter enterprise is restricted to exporting its own surplus of phosphoric acid. To achieve countrywide distribution of its products and flexibility in its sales strategy, Guanomex relies on four main marketing channels ranging from dealerships at one end to direct involve- ment of the official agricultural banking system at the other. Around 57 per- cent of all fertilizer is sold through more than 200 dealerships, mainly pri- vate enterprises but including cooperative organizations and three public sector agencies. By 1972 the official banks were distributing as much as 21 percent of the product, 9 percent went to agricultural "uniones" or non-profit private credit and input distributing associations of farmers, 8 percent was sold directly to sugar mills and the balance, 5 percent, was exported. Amongst its dealers, Guanomex proposes to make increasing use of the Compania Nacional de Subsistencias Populares (CONASUPO), a public sector agency organized, inter alia, to provide crucial agricultural inputs to low income farmers in backward rural communities through its growing net-work of sales outlets. Notwithstanding the present extensive arrangements, adequate and timely avail- ability of fertilizers, particularly among low income farmers and ejidatarios, remains a problem, a conclusion strengthened by a recent Mexican study which indicates that not more than 22 percent of the farmers in the country actually use fertilizers.  33. To rectify the situation, Guanomex has agreed to undertake a dis- tribution study to be completed within a year of the signing of the proposed loan, which will specially focus on the requirements and availability of fertilizers to low-income farmers as well as their credit needs and provision of related extension services. The scope of this study will also include the investigation of the optimum levels of fertilizer application in each region related to soil conditions and cropping patterns, particularly in the rain-fed areas, which mostly support the rural poor. The terms of reference of this study as well as its conclusions and the timing for their implementation will be agreed with the Bank. A second study, to be carried out in parallel, will investigate the optimum level of finished product inventory Guanomex should carry to ensure the timely availability of fertilizer in relation to its working capital requirements, including freight and storage costs (Section 3.05, Loan Agreement). PART IV - THE PROJECT 34. The proposed loan will be the Bank's first to finance a fertilizer project in Mexico. The project was appraised in September 1974 and the appraisal report (No. 734-ME, dated May 5, 1975) is being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. Negotiations were held in Wasnington in April 1975. The Government of Mexico was represented by Mr. Jesus Rodriquez of the Ministry of Finance and the Borrowers by Messrs. German Sandoval (NAFINSA) and Ernesto Badillo Navarrete (Guanomex). Annex III contains a loan and project summary. Project Description 35. The project, to be implemented by Guanomex and consisting of three sub-projects, is expected to add 379,500 tons per year (TPY) of urea in nutri- ent terms, raising the total capacity of nitrogen fertilizers in Mexico to 858,400 TPY of nutrient. It will also increase the country's production capac- ity of parathion, an insecticide, by 2,500 TPY. The project will have the fol- lowing components: 1. A 1,000 tons per day (TPD) urea plant (151,800 TPY of nutrient), which will be an addition to the existing fertilizer complex at Bajio, 3 kilometers from Salamanca in the State of Guanajuato and is referred to as Bajio II plant; 2. A 1,500 TPD urea plant (227,700 TPY of nutrient) to be located at Coatzacoalcos in the State of Veracruz and to be known as the Istmo plant; 3. Expansion of an existing insecticide plant, forming part of a chemi- cal unit in Salamanca, by adding a further 10 TPD (2,500 TPY) of manufacturing capacity of parathion to the existing capacity of 7,500 TPY.  - 12 - 36. The existing plants of the Bajio unit produce urea and ammonium sulphate, drawing their requirements of feedstock from an adjacent 250 TPD ammonia plant owned by Pemex. To meet the ammonia requirements of the Bajio II, Pemex has another 900 T}'D ammonia plant under construction in the vicinity. Land and infrastructure to cater for the needs of Bajio II are available at the Bajio unit. 37. The chosen location for the Istmo plant on the Pajaritos inlet, near the Coatzacoalcos port on the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent to existing facili- ties of Pemex and FFl, already has good road and rail communications serving it. Ammonia as feedstock for the proposed plant will be supplied by Pemex from two 1500 TPD plants in the neighbourhood, one of which has recently been completed while the other one is in an advanced stage of construction. W4ith these plants, Guanomex should have no problem in receiving its require- ment of ammonia for its Istmo unit. Assurances have nevertheless been obtained from the Government to provide Guanomex with its feedstocl. and raw material requirements for the project as well as for its existing plants (Section 3.03(b) of the Cuarantee Agreement). 38. The Salamanca unit comprises a 60 TPD caustic soda and chlorine plant, a 25 TPD DDT plant, small BHC and toxaphene plants and a 25 TPD para- thion plant. The proposed expansion of the parathion plant will coincide with a phased reduction in the production of DDT. Although parathion is more toxic than DDT, unlike DDT it is rapidly degradable and is therefore in grow- ing demand for ecological considerations. As parathion is expected to substi- tute for DDT in Mexico, its imarketability is assured. Project Implementation 39. The Project will be executed and operated by Guanomex, a public sec- tor corporation established in 1943 and in virtual control of all solid fertil- lizer production in Mexico. A reference has already been made to Guanomex's current ownership of chemical and fertilizer plants, total fertilizer produc- tion capacity and its recent experience in implementing and operating large- scale fertilizer units (see paragraph 30). The proposed urea plants will be based on modern, commercially proven technology. Experienced international engineering companies in association with local engineering firms will be responsible for design and detailed engineering of these plants and will pro- vide guarantees on project completion schedules and plant performance levels. Guanomex has already submitted to the Bank an implementation plan and a proj- ect execution schedule, which have been found satisfactory. Civil works and construction of the urea plants will be carried out by local firms. The para- thion expansion will be executed by a local engineering firm and will be based on the process design and guidance of the licensor, Stauffer, U.S.A. The pro- ject plants, including the insecticide plant expansion, are expected to be completed by July 1978. 40. Guanomex, in conformity with Bank procedures, has already contracted the services of Foster WTheeler Energgy Company (US) and Atlas Foster Wheeler ITexicana to undertake the design and engineering of Bajio II. The engineering  - 13 - firms for the Istmo plant will be appointed soon. Guanomex's established re- cord of project implementation is based upon the high quality of its managerial resources and technical expertise and the company's project team is considered fully competent to supervise the implementation of the project. 41. There are no constraints on the availability of utilities at any of the plant locations. Water is freely available and electricity will be sup- plied by the Government-owned Comision Federal de Electricidad. As the IstTw plant will be at a new site, it will require added facilities such as a jetty for shipping urea, a polyethylene bag manufacturing unit and new office build- ings. Provision for these facilities has been made in the capital costs of the project. In view of its considerable operating experience, Guanomex already possesses competent and technically skilled staff and operators who, together with the contracted engineering firms, will provide training for new staff as required, to onerate the project plants. 42. The urea plants will be designed with minimum emission levels of effluents followning standards acceptable to the Bank. In well designed plants gaseous and liquid effluents present virtually no problem. Dust dispersion is, however, a source of concern in plants using a prilling toxwer and conse- quently many U.S. plants have switched from prilling to granulation to mini- mize this problem. Guanomex will investigate the viability of this approach in the designing of the Istmo plant, and is considering measures to reduce pollution from the operation of a prilling tower in Bajio II under the direc- tion of its engineering consultants. 43. The dangers in the manufacture and use of parathion are primarily related to safety rather than evironmental impact. Guanomex has already im- plemented stringent safety regulations in its existing parathion plant (which will he expanded under this project) and its safety record to date is unblem- ished. Guanonex has, however, undertaken to continue monitoring its safetv measures regularly and to improve them where necessary. The assurances obtained on pollution control and safety are incorporated in Sections 3.04(b) and 4.04 of the Loan Agreement. Capital Costs and Financing Plan 44. Total project cost, including interest during construction, is estimated at US$150.2 million equivalent of which US$53.5 million is in foreign exchange. A breakdown of the total capital cost as well as the cost of the three sub-projects appears at Annex III. Physical contingencies are provided for at 11 percent of the base cost estimates. Provision for price escalation on total cost, including physical contingencies, is based on escalation rates of 12 percent for 1975, 10 percent for 1976 and 8 percent thereafter for foreign and internationally bid equipment costs. Similarly, local currency costs are escalated by 16 percent for 1975, 14 percent for 1976 and 12 percent per annum for the subsequent years. 45. In addition to the proposed Bank loan of US$50 million, the financing plan for the project provides for an equity contribution of US$60.0 million equivalent (Section 2.02(a) - Guarantee Agreement), and US$40.2  - 14 - million equivalent in long-term loans from foreign and local banks. The proposed Bank loan of US$50 million to Guanomex would finance 33 percent of the total project cost. In addition to the 8-1/2 percent per annum interest payable to the Bank, the company would pay NAFINSA a fee of 3-1/2 percent per annum on the outstanding amount, thereby raising the total cost of Bank funds to Guanomex to 12 percent per annum. The Government of Mexico, for its part, has undertaken to provide finances covering any cost overrun and shortfalls in project funds to allow completion of the project in accordance with the agreed schedule (Section 2.02(b) of the Guarantee Agreement). Disbursement and Procurement. 46. The proceeds of the proposed loan would be disbursed against the cost of imported equipment, materials and spare parts (US$23.8 million), the ex-factory cost of equipment and spares expected to be won by Mexican suppliers through international competitive bidding (US$9.2 million, of which the local cost component will be around US$5.0 million), and the bulk of the foreign exchange costs of license fees, design engineering, erection and supervision (US$7.5 million). Interest during construction on the Bank loan would be US$5.6 million, and US$3.9 million would be unallocated primarily to meet the foreign exchange portion of physical contingencies. The Bank loan would be less than the estimated total foreign exchange financing requirements of the project and the Government will defray US$8.5 million of foreign exchange costs from its own resources. 47. Of the US$33 million equivalent to be disbursed for equipment, inter- national competitive bidding would be applied for the procurement of equip- ment estimated to cost US$27.6 million equivalent. The usual 15 percent domestic preference or the prevailing import duty in Mexico, whichever is lower, would be granted to Mexican manufacturers for the purpose of evaluat- ing international bids. The balance of US$5.4 million equivalent includes, (i) small items, costing less than US$50,000, up to an aggregate value of US$1.0 million, which would be purchased directly from manufacturers and local representatives of foreign suppliers on the basis of suitability, availability and price considerations following approval by the Bank of the list of such items, and (ii) essential proprietary equipment and critical items in limited supply - costing approximately US$4.4 million - to be pro- cured after bidding from a geographically representative list of qualified suppliers. Procurement under the latter procedure has already been approved by the Bank in order to maintain the schedule for Bajio II. As a result, orders for proprietary equipment and critical items were placed last January and an engineering firm, selected in accordance with Bank Guidelines, was contracted at the same time. To cover expenditures on these items likely to have been incurred between January and the time of loan signing, retroactive financing up to US$3.6 million is proposed. Fertilizer Prices 48. As part of its policy to stimulate agricultural production, ferti- lizer prices in Mexico - including that of ammonia. both as feedstock and  - 15 - as a direct fertilizer - are controlled by the Government and are pegged at levels much below those currently prevailing in the world market. Towards the end of 1974, urea and ammonia were selling at US$122 per ton and US$131 per ton respectively in Mexico against international prices ranging between US$300 and US$370 per ton. The substantially lower than international price of urea is based on a relatively low transfer price (US$42 per ton) of its principal feedstock (ammonia) that Guanomex pays Pemex, which in turn reflects the low cost of natural gas and Pemex's technical efficiency in producing ammonia. Further, to insulate Guanomex from the high costs of imported ammo- nia, which is mostly used for direct application, the Government has appro- priated US$40 million equivalent to make good to the company the "loss" between the imported price and the domestic sale price. Guanomex is not expected to apply for such compensatory funds from 1978 when Mexico is likely to become self-sufficient in the production of ammonia. By that time the world prices of fertilizers are also projected to be in line with the prices in Mexico. However, in the meantime, an understanding has been reached with the Government to take all necessary action to allow Guanomex, operating efficiently, to obtain revenues sufficient to cover, at all times, its operat- ing costs and debt service commitments as well as to enable it to earn a reasonable return on its invested capital (Section 3.03(a) of the Guarantee Agreement). Financial Covenants 49. To ensure the financial viability of the company, in addition to the safeguard referred to in the preceding paragraph, it has, inter alia, been agreed that the company would not exceed a debt/equity ratio of 60:40; that it would at all times, after the completion of the project, maintain a current ratio of 1.3:1; that it would not make any cash dividend payment or pre-pay any debt other than the Bank's, unless after such payments it can maintain a minimum current ratio of 1.5:1; and that it would incur term-debts only if it can maintain a minimum debt service coverage of 1.4 (Sections 5.06(a), 5.06(b) and 5.06(c) of the Loan Agreement). Economic Benefits 50. The financial projections for the project anticipate increase in the cost of ammonia to Guanomex from US$42 to US$48 per ton in 1974 dollars and assume the domestic price of urea and parathion at US$122 and US$1,390 per ton respectively, again in 1974 dollars. The prices assumed for the export of urea are those recently projected by the Bank. On this basis, the financial rate of return on the project is estimated at 20.3 percent before tax and 14.5 percent after tax. A sensitivity analysis has been made which takes different variables into account; the rate of return remains acceptable under all reason- able assumptions. The project is also expected to have a beneficial impact on the overall profitability of the company, raising the return on equity from 4 percent in 1973/1974 to 9.1 percent in constant 1974 dollars in 1980/1981 - the year in which the project should achieve its maximum level of production.  - 16 - 51. Long-term international prices per ton of urea and ammonia are pro- jected to be US$130 c.i.f. Mexican port and US$88 delivered at factory site respectively. For urea projected to be exported between 1979 - 1982, esti- mated f.o.b. US Gulf Prices have been used in the calculation of the project benefits. On this basis, the project's economic rate of return is 24 percent. This rate is highly sensitive to variations in the price of urea, but even a 10 percent decline in that price still leaves an acceptable return of 17.8 percent. A 20 percent increase in the cost of ammonia has a lesser impact, lowering the return to 19.2 percent. Even with a 15 percent capital cost overrun the project would achieve a return of 21.2 percent. Thus, the sensitivity analysis indicates that except for an unlikely combination of substantial cost overruns and depressed urea prices over long periods, the economic rate of return will be satisfactory. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 52. The draft Loan Agreement between the Bank and Guanos y Fertilizantes de Mexico, S. A. and Nacional Financiera, S. A.; the draft Guarantee Agreement between United Mexican States and the Bank; the Report of the Committee pro- vided for in Article III, Section 4 (iii) of the Articles of Agreement and the text of a Resolution approving the proposed loan are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. 53. I am satisfied that the proposed loan would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Bank. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 54. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed loan. Robert S. McNamara President Attachments May 6, 1975  ANNEX I Page 1 of SOPUITRY DATA - MEXICO AREIA POPULATION DENSITY 1.972,5t7-2 D71 Thirr An;e (md-1972) Per ale! craM. land SOCIAL IDI'UCA10R Reference. Coutries Mexico ~~Brazi1 Chile ' VEAn ONI? PER CAPITA 118$ (ATLAS BASIS) aI u/ 3550 530 a 00 1,210 / DEWOURAPiFTC Crude birth rats (per th-enead) 156 "5 3a81 /b.c 30 2 Crude deAth rate (per th-eueAd) 10 9 1 I /b.o 9 Infant eurtality rate (Per thousand live birth,) 76 /d.uc 61 110 79 28 Life expectancy at birth (year.) ~b/ 65 61 /i,c 62 If 70 Or... reproduction rate / 3.2 3.1 /b 7.6 2.2 /b 1.4. Popoistion growth rate L 3.2 3.5 ZL 2.9 2.3 La 1. Populetton growth rate -urham SL 5L_&_h SLi 3 i 2 Age L-avtur (parasu) 0-I. Li6 . 39 26 15-6 52 5o ~ 53/ 55 63 65 and ove 1,1.. 57 6 9 Age depende-y ratio/. Z~0.9 i00.9 71 0. 06 Economic dependency rAi 1720 11.s7 1.6 ? .0L Urban pejelation am pernent of total Si /h 60 Lh 56 1. 76 ~j 1.9 /o.k Fanily pluon.ieg, Nc. of acoapiorm cunutiva (ihone.) 2...o5 No. of u..rm (5 of married aree) .. .6 Total latr.force (thnunande) 11,300 13,000 29,600 /5. 3,010 LP 12.700 Lp Percen.tage employed in agriculture 5I~ so 1926Z Percentage uneployed . 1 5L2 INCOME D0ISTRAUTION Pecn f nationalI in..ue. received by highent 5% 29 /. 36 /5.,5 33 ae 31101.6 Percent of natioa ..Incu... recined by high-nt 20% 59rn 65 /, 62 In 574, Peccant ofntoa moun ecived by ileeg 20 / t95 s ; Peccent of ntona inum .rcived by beset 4.0% nIIC a 13 DISTRIBUTION OP LAND OeAENSNHP % ucced by top 10% of en % and by emelleet 10% of ebmise HEALTH AND NUTMITION PufPiltie -per phy~icls- 1,800 y 1,51. 1,950 /i 2,00/ 5 Popeletion per nurming ermnn 76,650 1,570 3,300 Et 5,320 ,.0L PePaclation per heepita1 bed 590 L 930 260 250 920 / Per aPite calorie mcpply am of reqsirmeeste 107 a 110 109 3.01 107 Per capit prtvic eupply, totni (greem per day) L6 65 65 6i1 71 811 if ahiob, eni-1 end pclee 29 /s 839 32 5.0 If Dmoth rate 1-b yeero /7 IL. i 11 .3 /t 0.9 EDUJCATION Adjomied /8 pri=ay scoo enrolleet ratio 81 01 /5d 130 ame 119 /c.ad 03 AdjuetIdl 7% s-cvae enhoe earalim t ratio 9 23 23 /da 29 1.9 Tear. of echu1ing Provided, firet nsd -mnnd 1-ve 17 12 13 12 12 Ucoational enroean..t an 5 of ec- echeci enroll_ent 215 2.L- 17332 Adult Lieracy retm 6 67s33.55s 6/s 20. 1.o~ Avera.ge No. ef Permoc, Per r.ne (urban) 2.6 Il 2. 5 10 13.3 nab Percet of -ecpied ante wtt9a.t piped eater 60 ek,~ 6 3 a.n 10 , Accm t letict (am~ 5 f tntfl pepeletln) b.5 ! L ,E8Lp Percen If Pneal pe ai .. cn-tetd to ela-tricit. - - .0 58 30 1mb Radio reomive.em Pee 1000 pepelatien 95 301 Is61 o 119 /n 210LZ_ Pa....ngr care per 1000 poylatien lb 28 7W- 29 75 19 7p ny E'lectric O po.er .esenpties (ksh p-u) 338 Li 62Zyi a 110/ ,16/ Neriolt cecony=tine p... kg per year 2.8 1.8 7W. 2.3 7W~ 5.75 6.0 7-W Ronem, tPigurme rvfrr riher tn the 1letee periods or inacon of -nirusesntl teeperct,re, body neighte, and the iniem pram lte periode refer In pri-iple to dietribution by 5gm ,ac mn of uticon1 populati-n. the pen-e1956-60 or 1966-70; the istrat y,esre J, pi,.- /6 Protein etendarde (rq,irenente) for all --uviric am m.etb- ciple to 1960 and 1970. limbed by USDA Econnsin Remeurch SIericn proide for s niniec a.The Per Capito GhP -tllntn im at narht prince fora-eao of 60 g-ss of total protein per day, an 20 gr-e of yra.r th-n than 1960,naI~lc,.ted by the saecneri aimal an pulee protein, of hbiub 19 grane ehold be anial technique ae tbe 1972 WorDd Bank Atlse. protein. Thee. etndard.eare eonesrtt lame than theme a! 75 L2. Averge nanher of denghtere per mea ef reprod-tiv- 9-e, ef total protein and 23 groe f anteal protein am an age, averge for the onrld, proposn by FAO in the Third World PFod Pepnl-isii growh rotec sc for the de-dee ending in Survy. 1960 and 1978. _/7Doe etudies nave euggeetri tbai crude d-th caits of children IL Ratia of Pop-I.ltico ader 15 and 65 and seer L. ccpaaI- Ige throgh 1. nay he ueed a first appr-iatinn inde of time of agee 15-66 far age depesdmy rais and te later mecurtin ftrme cf agec 05-61. fcc ...n..d.c depedeey attic. L. -Percentge -1r.r d of o-emPonding ppulstioc of enbool age L AO referenc te.adardm epresent pbyeislsgiel ,- am defined for eah coutry. quiremta for canal activity and health, taking 1972; /b 1965-70; Ic Eatleate; Id 1959; Ic 1959%&1 If. 1969-70; a 1960-72; /hLo-iucitiec of 2,500 er mere; Li Urban end uhurha -ain of admiimt_trr.lv e are ef muinipailtim and dietrints; La Pepalated cantere which have Afinite urban cha-eteletica entrihuted by certain peblin and muicipa1 ervic..e; /k incaltime of 19,000 or mere inhbhittant; L Rati.oef pepalation under 15 end 60 and ever in thoee in age group 15-59; /. 15-59 peace; An 60 peace and ever; L. Pepulatime under 15 end 60 and eve; ZZ 1971; Li Name d en 1.3 percet as.ple tabulatIon nf cene.. retuan, ezldinsg Idieda Jingle pspalatla; /r 1963; La. Hecambhlde; Lt 0969; La 1969; L 1961; La inverneet only; . Number on the regieter, sot all weking in the -nutry; 'Li Roepitel pmraomem; an2; 7- 1961-62; lab 1973; La_- Regiaterad only~; lad Gnesarwolameni which icIudee overage etdente; I.The cmt enrollmet ratice in 1971 mere 85% end 18% far bae. and -enedary educa tion, reapetively; lef Definition unhekse; .i i par -an ser; /5L Data refer in living qu-tere; /-7. 1960)-62; Zia Dts refer to housing unite; /5k Dsta refer in hbuechs1de; /al. Eatiemte baeed us eample tahnlmtins of can-e retrnm; dais refer to doellinge; /55 Oneida or ostaide; Las Including eeipraetdemIilge; In I.ainide cniy. cSpaIn hem been ea-letd am an objective ..-try becaume ieB per capta in..e. ia higher than Mrsi-, and be--e both ocucinir h-e in connthe ispn-ance of turies and tietufluano of nearby richer nutim 90 April 21, 1975  P-c. 2 of 4s Act-a fret Ft- P 060 1965 1970 1975 1980 1742 7949 7410 IS~~ ~ ~~~~~'3 19' 56 lS? 190 t65 1970 19 75 1950 1 950 1960 11 0 1990 ..rats Iwstarprodaat ~~~~15447.9 220215.2 37173.9 3 719 7.6 394 18. 9 41309. 501 51 .4 124199, 1 7. 3 6. 6 6.1L 7. 0 7.59 93.0 1 05.10 984.1 oa-.ioT-,- 7al,da_f 4. 4.9 77 44.7 5L.1 36.6 527.8d 1475. 5 - . - 11 .9 10.5 0.51 - 7, 9 Cross 54~~~~~sk boat--u 1~~5620.2 25299.3 31766.6 57 231.9 596,70.4 46.4 585 99. 2 126197.6 7.3 6'.77 ~ :i 5 79 2575j Mo5:5 isO: lm,--at (-In. 4F17 1622.3 2125.9 7725.7 7767.7 1612.7 4614.5 6975.9 1172409.98 3.1 7.2 9.0 7.1 1.1 11.6 0.6 11.9 ____(s-cc -nsarl-cS 1695_590 -66. 517 19. 01.5 61. 79, 3.7 6.1 8.6 11L1 9. -10.7 -9.6 _7. 7 i 0--ca 143.0 164.0 310.0 026.0 859.9 607.o 51.3 -147.3 0.5 18.6 11.8 -38.. - . 1.. 1_9 Cons.poion ~~~~~~~~~17171.1 17s07.6 77077.5 70140.5 71750.9 3734q.9 65667.6 97135.7 6.6 7.1 6.0 6.4 7.6 97.3 0:14 76.0 leoressoas 75~~~~~~~~2:16.6 4111.6 0153.3 7297.4 1578.5 8097.9 12),45.0 26714.7 9.6 5.7 7.7 9.0 9.1 10.6 19.5 72.1 Osot-stIC Savings ~~~~~~2773.6 4164. 7 5754.3 6910. 9719.5 8190.5 72892.7 28456.0 10.0 -9.1 0.4 9.0 8.2 10.0 16.6 72.1 Saoa,o.sl Osolags ~~~~~27007.6 4291.6 5799.4 6195.6 9044.3 7195.7 11556.5 26279.7 9.6 6.5 6.3 9.9 9.5 17.7 17.0 19.7 Trade in Ca-ds r 15 n- Data sO Alrn. rns ____________ 7. o os (cad ~~~~ ~~~~~ ~~~~~10.6 25.4 91.6 149.1 576.1 259.0 464.2 1962.9 7.6 29.3 27.0 12.5 17.5 1.1 '. 2.0 fnltoluav anT ?ae4scns 72~~~~3.0 753.9 47.0 264.7 3620. 70.6 26.1 66.9 6.8 17.4 10.3 -. 7.9 6.5 2.m2 1.3 0.1 ...a Foods 917.6 12354.0 2217.6 3424.5 :11U. 6117 .0C 17535.0 64930.1 9.1 12.4 77.4 17.7 17.0 50.5 67.3 77.4 .......isr Scvca523 09 2.3 9.1.3 1269.4 1420.0 1449.9 5451.9 16011.1 6.2 5.6 9.5 10.9 16.6 57.1 26.6 49.6 Octal ls7eroa 15~~~~~~~~~41.7 20777.6 3796.5 5107.9 7520.2 0699. 17477. 82950.9 6.7 9.7 19.5 1.5 16.9 (104.0 147.5 1CO.0. 1o)rcs.tsl .sg:lrullarol Goads 331,.5 411,3 319.6 437.5 596.6 653204 1099.5 29)16. 5 7.7 -52 13.2 11 .5 10.3 22.1 12.7 6.3 9,srls nFcit 2.8. 40.1 33.4 30.0 123.0 510.8 1010.8 10413.0 10.2 -0.9 67.1 15. 5.6 1.5 1.4 5.0 leIe..ss.? 11:secs)t 0~~~~12.3 77.9 91.5 672m 11,9.11 114.5 10. 16063 -6.7 5.3 4.6 114 7. 4,-.53 1.1 s--acor- 101.1 225.9 3,3.4 68.0 115.1 129.5 2307.2 227138.6 15.3 11.6 79.0 25.0 17.3 7.5 35 2. Oser-ody 172&3 395. 070.0 737.0 943.5 922.5 2343.1 l01.11.6 17.3 7.6 10.5 23.5 16.1 13.5 2C.9 13.5 Ooso ..6ovar 5 72. 787.3, 1397.7 2384.9 5109.0 3415.5 8812.0 45710.2 6.3 12.5 19.5 20.9 17.8 47.1 55.9 50.4 tonal Et2oena 1355.0 1954.4 2745.3 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~4570. .,9 57.53 6854.6 13.4 86.3 7.5 7.1 29.1 22.6 17.0 100.0 100.6 7. Ir Url 1ic- Av---, ~1967.69 - 103 Oxotpr-c klan 85.00 92.7? 183.55 137.39 160.9 104.83 203.34 524.05 2.0 2.6 11.9 8.1 13.4 IrotDaisd-t 09.71 97.78 105.20 153.535 158.78 4070.77 2712.36 460.95 3.9 1, 5 16. 2 9.1 13.7 sort; of Trace 1~~~~~02.90 94.96 190.55 10.4 101.39 109.27 400.33 440.93 -1.6 1.1 1.6 - - EIrpoort .ntct 09.00 80.90 105.61 13951 051 .65 156.90 260.54 675.57 4.5 9.9 7.4 114 70.3 Vitae 6d-eC So Sertar A-,rsa Dra t- 1967-65 Prior. sd Coag ut Peccary ~~~~~~~~~~~27,60.2 3017.6 4023.1 4241.2 .. . . 4.4 3.4 . ... .. 17.2 17.4 Oscesidary 43~~~~~~~~853.2 16713.2 1215. 12690.3 . .. ... 9. 9.2 .. . . 27.6 2. Teracary 1/ 945~~~~~~~~~~9.2 121150 166412 022253.1 . .. ... 7. 6.9 .. .. . 54.9 531.6 Scoot 10277 15722.6 27249.0 31001.8 37184.6 .. . . 7.2 7.0 6. 3 7.0 7.9 150.0 100.0 100.0 Total keoIPt . 292.0 4725.4 4309.2 3242.7 6535.0 11,079.9 .. 69 10.2 11.0 .. 10.0 14. 100.0 .. . '.5 '~~~~ ~~~~ ~~~~029 966 103.9 1353.9 . . 17 17.' I lr.sensuoas .. 14~~~~~~~~~li585. 1766.1 2900.5 3753.5 37751.1 605.4 3. . .5 16.1 10.4 . . I. m1. .o;so 1001.3 924.9 2119.7 2207.5 17I. 1701.5 .. . t6 14.0 -0.4 .. .. 1.8 1.6 (os7. Too-! 055. ETap.) 2w ltes lea2) 37 . .. . Details enLPolir looer-es Ao O:S1c ol be-n 1. 6 17).. .. ...A n75 F5