Liberia - Third Highway Project

-CR LATINt COPY FILE CO l TO BE RETURNED TO REPORTS D DOCUMENT OF INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT Not For Public Use Report No. P-1685-LBR REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE REPUBLIC OF LIBERIA . FOR A THIRD HIGHWAY PROJECT August 11, 1975 This report was prepared for official use only by the Bank Group. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report.  CURRENCr EQUIVALENT The official monetary unit is the Liberian dollar, with a par value equal to that of the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar is legal tender in Liberia. FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 ABBREVIATIONS ADB - African Development Bank GOL - Government of Liberia MPW - Ministry of Public Works  INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE REPUBLIC OF LIBERIA FOR A THIRD HIGHWAY PROJECT 1. *I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed loan to the Republic of Liberia for the equivalent of US$27.5 million to help finance a Third Highway Project. The loan would have a term of 25 years including a five year grace period with an interest rate of 8 1/2 percent per annum. The African Development Bank (ADB) is contributing 5 million Units of Account (presently equivalent to US$6.0 million) to the total project cost. The ADB loan would have a term of 22 years including 4 years of grace with an interest rate of 6 percent per annum. PART I - THE ECONOMY 2. An economic mission visited Liberia in March, 1973. Its report "Liberia: Growth with Development - A Basic Economic Report" (No.426a-LBR dated March 1, 1975) has been distributed to the Executive Directors. Country data sheets are contained in Annex I. 3. During the 1950s and 1960s Liberia experienced an unprecedented rate of economic expansion, averaging close to 7 percent. This rapid expansion has enabled the Government, for the first time in the country's 150-year history, to undertake significant investments in essential economic and social infrastructure. 4. The growth has been essentially based on foreign enclaves -- iron ore mines, rubber plantations and forestry concessions -- with few link- ages between the concessions and the rest of the economy. As a result, the benefits of growth have been unevenly distributed. Annual repatriation by foreigners of profits and savings equals about 20 percent of gross domestic product; about 4 percent of the Liberians have per capita income levels above US$3,000, while the vast majority are near subsistence level with incomes below US$100. To help redress this imbalance the Government pro- poses to increase its earnings from the enclaves and use the resources to diversify the economy with increased participation of Liberians. 5. To help achieve these objectives, the Government is preparing a national development plan for the period 1976-1979. In this exercise, it is assisted by a planning team financed jointly by the Bank, the UNDP, the USAID and the Government (President's Memorandum R74-61 of March 25, 197h). Further improvement of public administration, the availability of foreign capital and technical assistance will, in large part, determine the size of the public development program. The Government has initiated a major effort to improve its administration and increase its capacity to  plan and implement investment programs. The United States, the Federal Republic of Germany, and the Bank Group have been, and are expected to remain, the principal sources of external capital. UNDP and USAID are expected to be the main donors of technical assistance grants. Recent Trends (1290-129h) 6. With the transition from the 28-year rule of President Tubman to the new administration of President Tolbert in 1971, the Government initiated a number of necessary fiscal reforms, including tighter expend- iture control and renegotiation of concession agreements. This action has resulted in a significant improvement of Government's fiscal performance. Nonetheless, the economy, particularly the non-enclave sectors, has been under severe strain since 1970. Initially this was caused by uncertainty in the private sector following the change in administration, and was accentuated by the fact that rubber -- which, in addition to being an enclave industry, is also the principal export crop of Liberian farmers -- experienced a price deterioration during 1970-1971 and again in 1974. 7. The economic setback in the non-enclave economy has persisted until the first months of 1975 because of the continued contraction, in real terms, of the public sector and a significant, almost completely imported, inflation. Three key items illustrate this inflation. First, rice: the domestic retail price for a 100 lb bag in March 1973 was about US$10; at thle end of 1974 it was US$25. Rice is the staple food of Liberians and dominates the cost of living index. Second, the impact on internal transportation of higher petroleum prices; this has produced an increase of about 40 percent in the price for transporting goods and people. In addition, the cost of power has also gone up. Third, the price of impor;ed machinery and equipment has increased substantially in the past two years. This, in turn, has seriously affected overall invest- ment costs, particularly in agriculture and road building. 8. On the export side, each of the three major exports -- rubber, timber and iron ore -- has been affected differently in the past two years. Rubber prices rose during 1973 and peaked in early 1974h, dropping sharply thereafter as the recession in industrial countries set in. In the timber industry, demand has continued unabated for choice primary species but has fallen off significantly for secondary ones. In the iron ore sector, the general shortage of raw materials experienced in 1974 and the relative accessibility of Liberian ores have enabled the concessions to negotiate compensation for higher energy costs and a further increase in the contract prices for 1975 (30 percent higher for ore, 50 percent for pellets). At the same time, serious interest is being expressed by foreign groups in the development of three more iron ore deposits in Liberia. In the most optimistic scenario, all three will be in production by the mid-1980s, doubling the national output from the present annual 24 million metric tons to close to 50 million. Concession agreements for two of these new  -3- iron ore mines are almost completed. While this would certainly be a welcome development, it does not lessen the need to pursue a development strategy of diversification. Opening of new iron ore mines will only delay the inevitable decline of this sector by a decade or so. 9. Owing in part to a successful program of fiscal reform implemented by the Government, the fiscal picture looks reasonably good for the next five or six years. Manpower constraints are likely to be the main development bottlenecks in the immediate future. Balance of Payments and Creditworthiness 10. Since Liberia uses US dollars as the medium of exchange, balance of payments analyses are at best tenuous. In the 1964-1972 period exports grew at 10 percent and imports by 5.9 percent annually. Thereafter, from 1972-74, following international inflations imports rose by 29 percent annually, exceeding the export growth of 22 percent a year. Oil imports increased from US$12 million in 1972 to US$56 million in 1974. Nevertheless, Liberia achieved a trade surplus of US$96 million in 1974 which was more than sufficient to offset a deficit on current invisibles. 11. External public debt outstanding and disbursed was estimated at US$155 million in December 1974, The debt service ratio was 5.3 percent in 1974, as compared to 7.1 percent in 1972. The ratio is projected to fall further in the next few years as final portions of heavy debt incurred in the earl;y 1960s are paid off' The Government has contracted little new debt in recent years and most of it at concessionary terms. The proportion of outstanding debt owed to the Bank/DA is currently about 15 percent. Even with an expanded public borrowing program and assuming the most adverse external conditions, Liberia's debt service ratio through the 1 980s is estimated to remain below 5 percent of exports. The country should, therefore, be regarded as creditworthy for the proposed Bank loan. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN LIBERIA 12, The Bank Group has made 10 loans for projects in Liberia totaling US$32.7 million; 4 IDA credits totaling US$17 million and one technical assistance grant of TJS$200,000 for development planning (paragraph 5). IFC has made one equity investment: US$250,000 in the share capital of the Liberian Bank for Development and Investment (LBDI); the Bank loans have been for roads, port expansion, power and LBDI. The IDA credits have been for education and agriculture. Annex II contains a summary statement of Bank loans, IDA credits and IFC investments as at June 30, 1975, and notes on the execution of ongoing projects.  13. The objectives of Bank Group operations are: (a) to increase the absorptive capacity of the economy and enable the Liberians to take greater initiatives in developing their own resources for the benefit of their own people; (b) to support policies and programs leading to a broader sharing of the fruits of economic progress; (c) to help the Government in broadening the economic base; and (d) to assist the Government in mobilizing development resources for sound projects from other external agencies. 14. The proposed project, for which the African Development Bank is also providing assistance, represents the culmination of several years of study of the needs of the transport sector. A second education project was preappraised in April. Studies have just been completed for an inte- grated rural development effort in central Liberia along with a possible rubber project. PART III- THE TRANSPORT SECTOR 15. The latest Bank analysis of Liberia's transport sector is con- tained in Volume VI of the last economic report (No. 426a-LBR dated March 1, 1975)e 16. Liberia's transport system includes about 4,200 miles of roads, 300 miles of privately owned railways, four seaports and two major airports that provide international and inter-African service. The railways are owned by mining companies and almost exclusively haul iron ore. The sea- ports handle about 23 million tons of cargo each year, of which about 90 percent is iron ore and pellets. Roads are the dominant mode of domestic trans- port and accouint for almost the entire movement of persons and non-enclave products. The movement is mostly from the hinterland to the seaports-- Monrovia particularly -- and from villages to metropolitan areas and vice-versa. Precise statistics on the volume of this traffic are not readily available but rough estimates suggest a rising trend of about 5 percent per aLnnum over the past five years. 17. Most of the road network, which consists mainly of all-weather (1,900 miles) aid dry-weather farm to market roads (2,600 milei, has been built over the last 20years with United States technical assistance financial aid from the Export-Import Bank of United States and some suppliers' credits. More recently, the Federal Republic of Germany, the African Development Bank and the World Bakc Group have contributed to development of the transport sector. Much remains to be done, however, because Liberia's transport facilities are inadequate for the country's size and economic potential. For example, other West African countries -- Sierra Leone, Cameroon and Ivory Coast -- respectively have 33, 38 and 71 km of roads per 1,000 population as against 4.2 km in Liberia. About half of all road traffic is concentrated in Monrovia alone and more than three-fourths is concentrated in the Monrovia-Ganta corridor, which is the main population-commercial- agricultural axis of the country (see map).  18. The Ministry of Public Works (MPW) is responsible for the public highway network. Its functions are performed through four bureaus -- one each for administrative services, technical services, operations and construction. The ministry also has a planning division which reports directly to the Deputy Minister. As part of the Second Highway Project (Credit 395-LBR; Loan 907-LER both of May 24h, 1973), technical assistance is being provided to help reorganize the ministry, with particular emphasis on improving its capacity to maintain roads and equipment adequately. Implementation of the maintenance program under the project is progressing slowly. In addition to the initial organizational delay, there was a cost overrun on the US-financed maintenance equipment, and a delay in its delivery. USAID has since agreed to provide supplementary financing. Contracts for the Monrovia Bypass and all engineering studies have been signed, and work is now progressing satisfactorily. 19. A central objective of the government's development policy is to promote more balanced growth, particularly through increased emphasis on agricultural development in rural areas. Improved transport is a vital part of this effort and the Government is moving to open up inaccessible areas and to strengthen and upgrade existing primary and secondary roads. An overall blueprint for these activities, including a five year Highway Maintenance and Development Program (1973-1977) was prepared in 1972. This program was the subject of an aid coordination meeting of bilateral and multilateral donors in October, 1972. The proposed project is an integral part of the overall sector development program. PART IV - THE PROJECT 20. The proposed project originated from studies financed under the Second Highway Project (Loan 907-LBR; Credit 395-LBR of May 24, 1973). The project was appraised by a Bank mission in November/December 1974. A report entitled "Liberia: Appraisal of a Third Highway Project", No. 805-LBR dated August 5, 1975, is being circulated separately to the Executive Directors. A loan and project summary is presented in Annex III. Negotiations took place in Washington on July 23 and 24. The Borrower was represented by a team headed by Mr. Winston Richards, Deputy Minister of Public Wtorks. Project Content 21. The project has three main objectives: First, to help improve accessibility between central rural/agricultural regions and the country's major commercial link with the outside world -- Monrovia; second, to strengthen the planning function in the Ministry of Public Works (MPW) and to prepare for future projects; third, to help lay the foundation for more rational transport and urban development of Monrovia itself. 22. The project includes the following components: (a) Construction of a two-lane bridge (1,400 feet) across the Mesurado River in Monrovia;  (b) Upgrading of 'United Natic,,ns Drive (3_4 miles) leading to the port of Monrovia; (c) Construction and realignment of the lotota-Ganta road (83 miles); (d) A three-year program for construction and. improvement of about 150 miiles of feeder roads; (e) Technical assistance to MPW's Planning Division; (f) Consulting services for: (i) construction supervision of items (a), (b) and (c) above; (ii) f'easibility studies for improvemelnt of the roads Ganta-Tapeta (65 miles) and Ganta-Sanniquellie (25 miles); (iii) detailed engineering for the Mount Coffee Dam road (15 mi:Les); and (iv) a study of Monrovia's urban development and transport system. 23. The bridge and the United Nations Drive are vital links to Monrovia's port area and to the commercial core of the capital city. They are logical followups to the Second Highway Project, which is promoting im- proved port accessibility through construction of the Monrovia bypass (see map). These port/commercial center access roads, in turn, are in a sense terminal networks for the backbone of the Liberian highway grid--the 83- mile Totota-Ganta road, which serves the most populous and agriculturally important up-country corridor, northeast from Monrovia to the borcer with Guinea,and provides access to Sierra Leone and Southwestern Liberia as well. All of the feeder road work would be in Lofa county and would service the area being assisted by the Lofa County Agricultural Development Project, for which a $6.0 million Credit was approved on July 22, 1975. The technical assistance for olanning in the Ministry oi Public Works basically serves an i:nstitution building function. It would help make the new planning division fully operational by including financing for the services of two technical assistance experts over two years to fill the posts of civil engineer and transport economist and to train local staff. The special studies are designed to: (a) assist the Government in developing roads in the interior; (b) investigate various alternatives for the future rational development of Monrovia and to provide a structural plan for alleviating the city's transport and housing problems. Project Cost and Financing 24. The total cost of the project (including contingencies) is estimated at US$46.L4 million (excluding about US$0.` million in taxes), of which about US$J3.5 million are foreign costs and about US$12.9 million equivalent are local costs. Fquipment and materials imported for the project are free from duties and taxe!s. The foreign cost of the project will be financed by the Bank ($27.5 million) anc the African Development Bank ($6 million). The Government will provide all the local costs (about US$12.9 million equivalent). The details of project cost estimates are presented in Annex III and summarized below:  -7- Source of Foreign Cost (Us$ '000) Foreign ITEM Financing Local Foreign Total Compnent A. RECONSTRUCTION WORKS (a) Mesurado River Bridge Bank 850 4,800 5,650 85 (b) UN Drive Bank 2,210 3,940 6,150 64 (c) Totota-Ganta Road Bank/ADB 6,140 13,660 19,800 69 Subtotal 9,200 22,400 31,600 71 B. CONSULTING SERVICES AND TECHNICAL AS9 TAN Bank/ADB 407 2,493 2,900 86 C. FEEDER ROAD CONSTRUCTION Bank 578 1,272 1,850 69 D. CONTINGENCIES 3,011 7,342 10,353 TOTAL A - D B 72 (rounded) (13,,200) (3,0)(46.,700) Project Execution 25. The Ministry of Public Works will be responsible for project execution. Consultants will be required for construction supervision, feasibility studies, detailed engineering and for the urban planning study. During negotiations, Government confirmed that consultants, as well as technical assistance experts to be attached to the Ministry's Planning Division, would be selected in agreement with, and under terms and conditions acceptable to the Bank (Section 3.02, Loan Agreement). 26. Construction contracts for the bridge, UN Drive and Totota- Ganta road will be bid as separate packages. Supervision of construction of the entire Totota-Ganta road (including the ADB-financed section) will be by the same consultants. The proposed feeder road work will be carried  - 8 - out by the MPW through a new feeder road unit to be created within the Ministry. In order to assure the prompt availability of funds for daily operations and procurement of materials and spare parts, Government agreed to establish a special revolving fund for the feeder road unit (Section 3.07, Loan Agreement). Procurement and Disbursements 27. Construction contracts for all major works will be awarded following international competitive bidding in accordance with Bank guidelines. Procurement of equipment and materials will also be on the basis of international competitive bidding. Equipment suppliers would be required to provide adequate after-sales services locally. Spare parts may be procured on the basis of locally advertised competitive bidding; major suppliers are represented in Liberia and competition between them is adequate. Equipment, which in the interest of standard- ization it is appropriate to obtain from a specific manufacturer, may be obtained by negotiations with suppliers of such equipment. The aggregate cost of spare parts and standardized equipment which can be procured without international competitive bidding would however not exceed $300,000. 28. Loan proceeds will be disbursed over four years (details in Annex III)on the following basis: (a) 85 percent of total expenditures for Mesurado River Bridge construction contracts; (b) 64 percent of total expenditures for UN Drive construction contracts; (c) 69 percent of total expenditures for Totota-Ganta road construction contracts; (d) 86 percent of total experkditures for consulting services and technical assistance, representing the estimated foreign costs; (e) 100 percent of foreign expenditures for equipment, spare parts and materials; (f) 2h percent of total operating cost of feeder road unit. Benefits 29. The proposed project will improve the transport infrastructure of Liberia, presently a major cons'traint to the development of the country outside the foreign enclaves., Construction of the Totota-Ganta road and Lofa County feeder roads wil-L provide or improve key section of the rural transport system and, in the process, open up the agricultural heartland of the country where the average income of beneficiaries is about US$70 per  - 9 - annum, and about one-fourth of the national average. Construction of the Mesurado River Bridge and improvement of UN Drive will improve access to the port of Monrovia, making a significant contribution to efficient commerce. The proposed technical assistance to the MPW will help consolidate the institution building effort in sectoral management and highway planning started under the Second Highway Project. The urban study of Monrovia will help establish the framework for an efficient transport and land use program for the capital city. 30. On the basis of the quantifiable benefits -- namely reduced main- tenance costs of roads, reduced vehicle operating costs, time saving of users, improved clearance of the port area -- the proposed investments are expected to yield an overall economic return of 23 percent. Individual returns for the three major project items are: Bridge, about 16 percent; improvement of UN Drive, about 36 percent; construction of Totota-Ganta road, about 38 percent. Labor has been shadow-priced at 50 percent of the wage rate for evaluation of the Totota-Ganta road because of limited opportunities in the interior and at full market rates for other project components. PART V - IEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 31. The draft Loan Agreement between Liberia and the Bank, the Report of the Committee provided for in Article III, Section 4 (iii) of the Articles of Agreement and the texts of the resolution approving the proposed loan are being distributed separately to the Executive Directors. 32. Features of the Loan Agreement of special interest are referred to in paragraphs 25, 26 and 27 of this Report. 33. An additional condition of effectiveness would be that the ADB Loan Agreement is duly executed (Section 6.01, Loan Agreement). PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 34. I an satisfied that the proposed loan would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Bank. 35. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed loan. Robert S. McNamara President Attachments August 11, 1975   ANNEXI WUURT DATA - LIBERIA AMA PPI,ATici MSI7T Per k.2f rablo leed SOCIAL INDICATORS Rgfereno Goemtrlss- LbOrl-a gi~~~~a.n Salvador Jeanioa * 1970 I1970 1970 . 127 PRR CAPTTA US$ (ATLAS BASIS) ~ 250 I 300 I 340 /a 10oa D0!)GRA.IKC MU-Sri-th "t. (pr th-amd) 5( /bc 47 A e 44/brf 35 /b Infant mortality rate (per thousand live births) 159 . 53 26 lb Life e3Wectancy at birth (y.sre) 37 A 53 4L7 /d,. 55 69- Oroossreproductimn,rLte /2 2.6 /d 3.2 3 4/do e 25 Popuatisoln growth ret 2.7 3.1 7- 2.6 /1 3:2 5~ 1.6 /h Population grow.th Met - urban ...5 7T I.T 6 7W Age atucauro (percent') 0J-61 37/a- - 47 6 4Lf 59 .4~ ~ ~~~ ~~~9 11~ 94 a5nd over 4 5 L4 Age depandency ratio /4 0. 1.0 1.,I.. Econosic dependency ratio /4 1.1 1.24. 1.6 7; 1.7 Urban populatiosi as peroont of total ..29 i 32 /i 39 L/..7. 37A Family plainigs NoM. of aoomptors oammaitive (thuon.) , ma. of usero (% of married womn) * .2/ R RMTbor f-or (thouaead.) 400 Ig 580 3,500A/ 1,300 /b 750 / Percentage employed In gricaultre 81i 702 55 7 47 7! 337;e Percentage unamploy.d ..20 / . 10 - 13-1J. 77 INMS4 DISTRIBUTION Percent of national income reomived by higheot 5% ..60 ..20 Ir percent of national Income recived by high..t 20% ... .52 7-r Peroent of national income reneired by lowast 20% ....4 7-; Percoaot of notiooal income received by lowsmt 40% ..13 .13 77 DIS~TIBOTIOR OF LAND OViINRSR % ownedby top lWo-No! n-rs .... 75 % owned by smallest 10% of ownero HR.ATA AND RUR ETO mpON.atn a e phlyaician 12,000 /o 10,450 /0r 12,950 /t 4,030 2,630 Populaion Per u-ming person ..- 4,140 7FL_ 1,070 7; 960 1,720A/ Fop.2ation Per hoapital bad 730 530 7; 760- 520 240 Per caPita colorie soPPIy an % of reqairenete/ 86 88 92 82 103 Per "opita prot^in oupply, total (grime pernday776 36 36 46 51 56 Ofwhich,eanimal and pulsee 10 /v 10 /v 18 29 /v Death ratl-.h years /7 29 ~ 217;. 7/b . SD3CATI0N Ad3usted jprimary scoo enrollment ratio 38 73 A 89: 90 86 ly Adjuated asconiary sohool enrrnllmnt ratio 2 12, 5: 18W4 Years of Ntoollng provided, firet and maoond level 12 12 15 11 12 Vonetiosall enrollment es % of eec. school enrollmant 12 5 23 31AIn 9Ile Acoat literacy rote % 9 /g,ab 32 /bc ..58 7;ad 86 Z7r-,b Av-er-age No. of per oosm per coom (urban) 1.7 /ao .. 2.4 lb of Percent of Occupied units olthout Piped water ... .747 ?: Anyon tD elentriCity Cos % Of total population)...174 Percent of Aural population connected to electricity17 3 f Rdosoiver. per 100 Population 77 99 L 85 I. 95 lb 376 /a Paseonger nero per 1000 population 6 7; 10 7 45 71 Electrin poomr aonsuptioo (kWh p.c)14/i 519 7 6 18 1,017 " NewSPrint consumption p.c. kg per year o.i / o.36 316 0315Z Notes, Figo:ros refer either to the latest periods or to aooato evrzsetlbmprtr, body w'oighta, and the lat.ot y-ra'. Latest periodo refer in prinoiple to diotributimn by age a,sA oexr of national populatione. the ynars 1956-60 or 1966-70, the loteot Ye-r ip prim- /6 Protein tandar-ds (requirmements) for all voontri.s an aetab- .ipl. to 1960 end 1970. libed by USDA Economic Research Service provide for a minimum /I 77e Per Capita GOP votinote in at market pricvs for allowance of 60 grams of total protein per day, and 20 grams of Yearo otber than 1960, calculated by the case conversion animal and pulse protein, of which 10 grams should be animal techniquae aa the 1972 World Bank Ailos. prtotin. These standards are somewhat love than those of 75 12 Average number of daughter, per omnos of reproductive grame of total protein and 23 grams of animal protein am an age. average for the world, proposed by FAO in the Third World Food P2 bpulotion growth rtesr ore for the deoades eoding in Surey. 1960 and 1970. Z7Same studies have suggested that crude death rates of cuildren A Rtatio of population -nder 15 and 65 and over to popula- ages 1 through 4 say be used as a first approximation index of tion of ages 15-64 for age dependency ratio and to labor ,-nulltrition. force of ages 15-64 for economic dependmeny ratio. /8 Peroetage enrolled of corresponding population of scohool age LiFAO referenoe otandard. reprasent physiological re- as defined for amoh country. qui.reammts for -oraI activity and health, taking ]c 072; Ah 19731 IA Reat-tea based on the pnoulation grow,th survey which comnence.d in hay 19/9; Id 19655-7C; 7;o Estimate;, If Registered only; /& 1962; Ab 1960)-72; /1 Towns with population of 5,000 and o,er; ZI AdMinis- tr-tive center, of municipalities; Ab Kingston metropolitan are.a or selectrd .oin to-ns; /1 Data are booed no the re-Ilt. of the population growth surey which covers five percent of the total populatios; /mtatio of population under 25 end i5 and over to total labor force; /n Localities having moe than 2,000 inhabitants; I /n cThloding so,kers /t expelled from Honduras; /k Excludes fore7t_y; /q Unemployed and partially employed; Ir T769; /a 19,64; / Number othe rgister, sot all wsrking in the countr; Iu Personnel in g-encrmont eriuonly; /v 1964-66; X; 1906-68; Ix Including pre-primary education; lyinIcl-Mes overage students; /s Not including te-abshr training; 7;.a 1908; /ab-15 yearn and over; /ac An percent of' total school age population; 7ad Definition unknown; lam 1956, citY Of W-rovla onlyi /af Dats -?efr to living quarters; /0g Includes police and other- governmnt securitF7.hicies; /oh 19o.1 o Janaioa has icon selectrd as an objective country eince its GNP per -apita is nearly four tines that of Liberia; its economic structur depends heavily os the mining sectot-; both -ntustrr ore encouraging foreign inveotmcsts; and Liberian. employmest po2icy objective is to reach the current level Of Jamaicans macpowe r training. July 9j, 1975  ANNEX I ECONOMIC____________NT__DATA __Page 2 of 3 Pagea (Amont inslloeo ..dlare) Actual. Proj ect ed __ 1965 - 1970 - 1974 - 1965 1973 1979 NATIONAL ACCOUNTS ~i 15 ~ 2 94 17 9917 95 17 3-Yea Average at 1%7 1269 Pices & Exchae te AsPrntoGY Gross Domestic Product29. 367.6 2.3; 453.2 _?.3 546.3 5.5 3.6 3.8 96.4 104.6 Gan frmTrro Trad I- -2~9 -.l2. - 32.2 _L3-137 4. 35. 5: ~ ' A -L Gross Domstic Incme * 3 358~ 417.2 420.9 4806 560.0 42 21 59 100.0 100.0 100.0 Import (incl. NSF) 123.0 129.0 143.6 135.2 176.7 220.6 2.7 - 0.9 10.3 40.2 34.4 39.4 Exots 11(import capacity) - j 4 - 1S~ -Zg2o -'s ~ -1 -2)j265 -32 39 -)3. S2 -.. Hesource Gap - 22.5 - 61.4 - 63.4 - 59.5 Z- 00 - 15.7 21.2 - 9.9 -23.4 - 47.5 - 49.6 - 42.2 Consumption Expenditures 223.2 243.1 288.0 292.6 317.3 343.8 3.0 2.9 3.3 - 7.3 - 15.2 - 2.8 Inivestment . (incl. stocks) 60.6 54.1 65.8 68.8 143.4 200.6 0.7 7.3 23.9 72.9 69.0 61.4 Domestic Savings 83.1 115.5 129.2 128.3 163.3 216.3 7.1 0.1 11.0 1 9.8 15.8 35.8 National Savings 23.1 51.5 68.9 73.0 111.3 156.0 19.0 5.0 16.4 912.7 84.8 97.2 MERCHANDISE TRADE Anniual Data at Current Prices As Percent of Total imports Capital goods 34.9 36.5 68.8 85.4 175.4 269.0 33.3 35.6 40.3 Intermediate goods (wmLfuels) 6.1 7.8 12.8 23.0 25.5 31 .16o 66 . Fuels and related materials 115.5 of which: Petroleum 8.3 8.6 14.7 56.4 115.5 129.4 8.0 7.6 19.4 COngU tion godsL 55.5 61.8 Ma.. 12L. 1.L z3aJ 2j7 50.2 35.3 TotamleMrch. Il1ports (cif) -104.8 1T-1 M7 193.5 289.4 511.3 667.8 100.0 100.0 i-ffT Exports AgriculIture 33.0 43.9 66.7 93.6 130.1 171.6 24.3 20.6 23.? Iron Ore 96.2 137.1 196.7 262.3 391.3 498.0 71 .1 60.7 67.? Other 6.2 51.8 60.6 ~.~46 1. . Total Merch. Sxports (fob) 137.4 32.T 3=2o 347 587701=o T -o l= Merchandise Trade Indices Average 1%7-691 100 Export Price Index 99.9 101.5 141.5 180.4 272.5 341.8 Import Price Index 96.3 102.0 134.1 242.9 295.4 321.6 Terms of Trade Index 138 9. 78 6. 55 9. Exports Volume Index 138 9. 78 6. 55 9. VA-LUE ADDED BY SECTOR Annual Data at 1971- Price adEc ngRates Average Annual Grow-th Rates As Percent of Total Agriculture 63.6 77.7 105.2 111.3 125.0 132.1 6.7 5.9 3.5 23.4 26.6 26.2 Industry and Mining 99.9 145.3 151.0 153.3 149.3 155.4 7.2 0.1 - 36.8 38.2 30.1 ____~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~c 39.8 35.2 43.7 Services 107.9 126.8 .jj54 2.,3 192.0 217 0 6.9 4.9 5.6- UflFaiVfactor cost 271.4 349.8 411.6 427.9 466.3 504.5 6.-7 3.3 3.3 100.0 100.0 10O0. 0 PUBLIC FINANCE As Percent of GDP (Central -Government) 1I5 965 9- Current Receipts 43.7 63.0 89.9 110.3 164.0 203.8 T ~ 7 7 Current Expenditures 46.0 56.1 70.1 83.7 99.8 119.5 Bsdgetary Savinigs 2.3 6.9 19.8 26.6 64,.2 84.3 -. other Public Sector -- Publi-c Sector Investment 22.4 11.7 32.5 34.6 40.0 47.5 6.3 1.3 US $million BUD0GrARY EXEMT DgTArS - Actual Prelim. Est. Proj. DETAIL ON At endi I .. P and ER As % Total Buzdgetary Epn. 1971 1972 197 3 197 4 1975 PUBLIC SECTO,R Firs Pla n o_Total Education 1.1.1 1. 165 UVIN*SMENT 1'R00RAM (19... . l.~ . .3 Other Social Services16 1 16.4 15 I3 165 Social Secto,rs OthriScualturervcs8.3 16.0 1.6.8 17.6 16.3 Agriculture Agricul ervuces3.3 4.3 .6.3 7.4 9.7 inutyae nig Other Economic Srie 12. 7.4 10. 0 12.6 9.9 Pndusry n:Mnn Administration anid Defense 47:4 38.3 36.8 33.2 37 Pransprt dcmuiton thLer 11.4 17.6 1 5.0 14.9 10.2 Othrasotndcmnitin Total Budgetary Expenditures 100.0 100.0 103).0 100.0 100.0 Tothl-Er pnlue SELECTED INlCATORS 1.965- 1970- 1974- FINANCIING (calculated from 3-year averaged data) 1.970 1975 1979 Average ICOR 3 .9 4.1 6.2 nnbic S.-tor Savings Import Elasticity ~~~~~~0.5 -0.2 3.1 Prograsm e.id counterpart Marginal, Domestic Savings Rate 0.5 0.0 0.6 Foreign P-roject Aid Marginal National Savings Rate 0.5 0.2 0.6 Total Financing (1970 Permanent Wage & Salazy Moployment - F au dedPrWrer(91- Pices &EcRts LABOR FORCE AND __.___ _____ ______ _____ _value____dded__Per__Worker____1971____ _____ _t_s_ OUTPPJT PER WORKER in Millions joli ~Total In U.S.Dollars 197_ 1970 19~70 1,915.2 Agriculture 46,000 36.8 4,394.2 ~~ndustry ~~~~~~~~34,500 27.6 2,916.2 Service W44~00 -- dotaLl 123,000 1 00. 0 not applicable n il or negligible not available - less than half the smallest unit shown,  PNg. 3 of 3 pqa- BiAES 0?~er~EfrlREJ ASSINDIZ ANFD 9ME Avg. hmenl Act1.8 Entisted Prjeted OIkol Hate ~~f 1970 flj flj ~~~~~~~~yj~1 7 ns il67 itz IWO pY 198 1975-1980 SUMMARY SLANCE OFPA96M13TS Ero-teM (too. MNF) 199.5 216.9 267.3 332,l4 o02.9 698.1 494.7 592.7 667. 6 760.?7 858.i 11.5 'Irt' ol.89)12. 190 ima. 22S 314.2 386.6 667.6 1 ceo I-Il) ~~~~~76.7 lR19 63.1 10?.9 88.73 40.5 . 7 . 1: Tnter-t (cot) - 6.7 - 29.0 - .5 5 .3 -46.7 - 3.9 - 3.6 3.1 - 2.9 - 3.1 - 4.6 - Dil.t r-t...t T- 42.6 ~~~~68.o 83.2 64. 6 125 9 -129.9 15. -725 -193.7 -213.4 11.1 Corret Tronef-r (t) 213.2 15.8 0.0.... .