Senegal - The economy

A World Bank Country Economic Report PUB- 212 Senegal: Tradition, Diversification, and Economic Development November 1974 FlE COPY   Senegal: Tradition, Diversification, and Economic Development This report was prepared by the economic mission which visited Senegal in February and March 1972, and includes comments made by the Government of Senegal in December 1972 and March 1973. Mission chief and coordinating author Heinz B. Bachmann enjoyed the support of general economist Louis Cur- rat, industrial consultant Georges Delhove, PMWA agronomist Uberto Fontana, demographer Joseph Gholl, statistician Cynthia Miller, PMWA agricultural economist Mohamed El Moghazi, general economist Jacqueline Noel, fiscal consultant Sylvain Plasschaert, plan organizer Nimrod Raphaeli, and secretary Marie-Therse Bellot. The mission chief and coordinating author is responsible for the scope and overall conclusions of the report. WORLD BANK Washington, D.(-  Copyright 0 1974 by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. All rights are reserved. The World Bank issues country economic reports in two series. This report is a working docu- ment and is, as such, part of an informal series wholly based on materials prepared for restricted use within the Bank. The text is not meant to be definitive, but is offered so as to make some results of internal research widely available to scholars and practitioners throughout the world. The Bank has a continuing program for expanding and strengthening the quality of all social and economic statistics used in its operations and research activities. Some of these data are published routinely in the WVorld Bank Atlas, the World Bank Annual Report and Trends in Developing Countries. Other statistical series maintained by, the Bank and used almost ex- clusively by Bank staff are published only infrequently. The World Bank Catalog lists all of the Bank's free and sale publications; it is available to any individual or institution with a serious interest in economic and social development. To obtain more information about Bank publications and to request a copy of the Catalog, contact the Publications Unit, World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A., or the World Bank, 66, avenue d'Iena, 75116 Paris, France. Other titles in this working document series of country reports may be ordered from either the Washington or Paris offices; currently available are: Employment in Trinidad and Tobago (March 1973) Current Economic Position and Prospects of Ecuador (October 1973) Current Economic Position and Prospects of Peru (December 1973) Chad: Development Potential and Constraints (July 1974) Another series of country reports is published for the World Bank by The Johns Hopkins Uni- versity Press. Individual titles currently available may be obtained in clothbound and paperback editions from bookstores, The Johns Hopkins University Press, or its agents: Economic Growth of Colombia (1972-ISBN 0-8018-1389-1 /0-8018-1397-2) Nigeria: Options for Long-Term Development (1974-ISBN 0-8018-1602-5 / 0-8018-1603-3)  - iii - Table of Contents Page No. LIST OF TABLES .................................... vii COUNTRY DATA ...................................... xiii MAPS .. follow xiv ABBREVIATIONS ..................................... xv EQUIVALENTS AND FISCAL YEAR .............. ......... xviii SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ................ ........... xix PART ONE: PAST DEVELOPMENTS AND THE PRESENT SITUATION 1....... I. The Country and the People .... ........... 1 II. Growth Experience 1960-1971 ................... 7 III. Government Response to Senegal's Growth Prob- lems 1960-1971 ............................... 22 The framework of Government's intervention in the economy ............................ 23 Assessment of Government policies .... ...... 25 Public development efforts .... ............. 25 Public finance management (current opera- tions) ..................................... 29 Financing of public development outlays .... 33 Public enterprises ..... .................... 34 IV. Money and Credit .............................. 38 Institutions ............................... 38 Working Rules of the BCEAO .... ............ 38 Determinants of the money supply .... ....... 40 Sectorial distribution of credit .... ....... 42 Credit financing ........................... 46 Interest rates ............................. 46 V. Human Resources ............................... 50 Population ................................. 50 Employment ................................. 52 Education .................................. 56 Health conditions .......................... 60  - iv - PART TWO: MAJOR ECONOMIC SECTORS, PAST DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK .... 62 VI. Rural Sector ......................................... 62 Agriculture ....................................... 62 Livestock ......................................... 68 Fisheries ......................................... 72 VII. Modern Sector ........................................ 79 Industry .......................................... 79 Power and Water ................................... 82 Tourism ........................................... 84 PART THREE: PROSPECTS AND CREDITWORTHINESS ......................... 92 VIII. Overall Economic Growth .............................. 92 Introduction and main conclusions .... ............. 92 Detailed projection of economic growth .... ........ 94 Growth at current prices and growth of per capita revenues ......................................... 101 IX. Expenditures and Savings ............................. 104 X. Balance of Payments and Foreign Trade .... ............ 108 XI. Planning and Public Investments ...................... 113 The Third Plan .................................... 113 Future development planning ....................... 115 Financing of future development outlays .... ....... 121 XII. Terms of Foreign Financing and Creditworthiness ...... 130 ANNEX 1: AGRICULTURE ... . .138 A. Overall Situation .and Past Growth .138 Importance of Agriculture in Senegal's Economy .138 Factors Determining Agricultural Output .140 B. Major Crops: Their Determinants and Prospects .142 Foodcrops . .142 Groundnuts . .144 Other crops . .148 Arabic Gum . .150 C. Overall Outlook for the Agricultural Sector .150 ANNEX 2: MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES . . .152 A. Macro economic Trends .152 B. Factors Determining Industrial Growth .155 Productivity level and Productivity Increase .157  Wages ............................................... 158 Credit . ................................................. 158 Exports to Developed Countries ........ .. ............ 158 C. Government Policies ........ .............. ........... 159 Investment Code ......................... ............ 159 Promotion of Senegalese Inudstry .......... ... ....... 161 D. Future Developments and Conclusions ...... .. ......... 163 ANNEX 3: THE TAX SYSTEM OF SENEGAL ............................. 165 A. Summary and Conclusions ............................. 165 B. Description of the Tax System ............ ... ........ 169 Direct Taxes ...................................... 169 Indirect Taxes ....................... ............. 184 The System of Tax Incentives ............ ... ....... 202 C. Appraisal and Suggestions for Improvement .......... . 206 Functions of a Revenue System ..................... 206 Appraisal of Senegal's Tax System ..... ............ 208 Suggestions for Improving the Tax System .... ...... 214 Possible Revenue Implications of the Suggested Changes . ......................................... 228 ANNEX 4. PLANNING METHODS AND PLAN IMPLEMENTATION ...... ....... 231 Summary and Recommendations .............. ... ........ 231 A. Introduction ........................................ 233 B. The Planning Machinery .................... .......... 234 C. The Methodology of Planning ...... ................... 238 D. Recommendations .................. ................... 243 The Control of Plan Implementation ................. 246 The Directorate of Planning ......... .. ............ 248 STATISTICAL APPENDIX .251   - vii - LIST OF TABLES Text Tables I : Sectorial Composition of Public Development Outlays II : Financing of Public Development Outlays 1 : Major Growth Sectors 2 : Groundnuts, Prices, Production and Proceeds 3 : GDP at Current Market Prices 4 : Per Capita GNP at 1971 Prices 5 : Major Foreign Trade Indicators 6 : Balance of Payments Estimates 7 : Breakdown of Public Expenditures 8 : Central Government Revenues, Expenditures, and Savings 9 : Financing of Public Development Outlays 10 : Financing of Public Enterprises Investments 11 : Public Enterprises, Savings Net of Current Subsidies 12 : Monetary Developments 13 : Sectorial Distribution of Short Term Credit 14 : Sectorial Distribution of Medium and Long Term Credit 15 : Interest Structure Before and After the January 1973 changes 16 : Modern Sector Manpower: Estimated Breakdown by Qualification, 1970 17 : Breakdown of the Modern Sector Manpower by Origin and Qualification, 1970 18 : Mission Projection of Employment in the Modern Sector by Nationality 19 : Approximate Mission Projection of Total Employment 20 : Growth of School Enrollment 21 : Projected Growth of Major Agricultural Products 22 : Rates of Growth of Agriculture and Livestock 23 : Livestock Production Targets, 1971-1980 24 : Mission Projections of Fisheries Production 25 : Manufacturing Industries 26 : Air Arrivals in Senegal by Country of Origin 27 : Investments per Job Created 28 : Hotel Financing 29 : Mission Projection of GDP at 1971 Prices 30 : Groundnuts: World Market Prices and Producer Prices 31 : Manufactured Consumer Goods: Average Annual Growth Rates at Constant Prices 32 : Mission Projection of GDP at Current Prices 33 : Mission Projection of Per Capita Revenues 34 : Private Savings and Investments 35 : Expenditures and Savings 36 : Balance of Payments Projection 37 : Mission Projections of Foreign Trade 38 : Third Development Plan, 1969/70-1972/73: Public Outlays 39 : Mission Proposals for Public Development Programs Beyond the Third Development Plan  - viii - 40 : Public and Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation 41 : Financing of the Proposed Public Development Programs 42 : Mission Projection of Public Savings 43 : Mission Projection of Central Government's Current Revenues and Expenditures 44 : Projection of Gross Foreign Aid Inflow 45 : Long Term Mission Projections of Public Savings, Foreign Aid and Debt Service 46 : Foreign Debt Service Ratios Under Different Blends of Foreign Loan Aid and Different Growth Rates of Exports of Goods and Services 47 : Impact of Different Future Foreign Borrowing Conditions on Net Public Savings 48 : Long Term Mission Projection of Terms of Foreign Aid Inflow Annex Tables Al : Role of Groundnut Production in Government Revenues and Foreign Trade A2 : Farmers' Short-Term Debit, 1970/71 A3 : Growth of Major Agricultural Products, 1970-1980 A4 : Role of the Manufacturing Sector in the Senegalese Economy A5 : Value Added in the Manufacturing Sector A6 : Domestic Production and Consumption of Manufactured Consumer Goods, Excluding Groundnuts A7 : Domestic Production and Consumption of Textile and Clothing A8 : Taxes on Imports into Senegal A9 : BIC: Companies A10 : BIC: Individuals All : General Income Tax (IGR) A12 : Yield from Modern Income Taxes A13 : Yield from Old Direct Taxes A14 : Current Budget Revenues, FY65-FY72 A15 : Actual Import Duty Burden on Selected Groups of Imported Goods, 1969 A16 : Shifts in Composition of Imports, 1964, 1969, 1970 Al7 : Taxes on Import Trade A18 : Taxes on Imports Al9 : Revenue on Export Trade A20 : Export Duty on Major Exported Goods A21 : Taxes on Domestic Production (Excise Duties) A22 : Rate Pattern of Inheritance Taxes A23 : Selected Developing Countries: Tax Ratios and Indices of Tax Effort 1966-68 A24 : Aggregate Effective Tax Burden from Modern Income Taxes on Individuals without Children at Selected Net Income Levels A25 : Distortative Effects of Deductability of IGR at Selected Net Income Levels  - ix - A26 : Conservative Estimate of Revenue Impact of Suggested Statutory Changes Statistical Appendix Tables 1.1 : Total Population 1.2 : Population by Region 1.3 : Breakdown of Wage Earners by Activity and Qualification in the Cap Vert Area 1.4 : Breakdown of Wage Earners by Activity, Qualification and Nationality in the Cap Vert Area 1.5 : Breakdown of Registered Unemployed by Qualification 1.6 : Employment Projection in the Modern Sector by Qualification And Nationality 1.7 : Projection of Local Manpower Demand in the Modern Sector 1.8 : Health Facilities by Region, 1968-69 1.9 : Medical and Paramedical Personnel 1.10 : Education: Recurrent Expenditures 1.11 : Primary Education, 1969/70 1.12 : Secondary General Education 1.13 : Enrollment in Technical and Professional Schools, 1970/71 1.14 : Enrollment at University and Similar Institutes, 1971/72 1.15 : Socio-Economic Indicators 2.1 : National Accounts - Gross Domestic Product at Current Prices, 1959-1971 2.2 : National Accounts - Gross Domestic Product at 1971 Prices, 1959-1971 2.3 : National Accounts - Rural Sector, Value Added, Current Prices, 1959-1971 2.4 : National Accounts - Rural Sector, Value Added, Constant Prices, 1959-1971 2.5 : National Accounts - Agriculture, Value Added, Current Prices, 1959-1971 2.6 : National Accounts - Agriculture, Value Added, Constant Prices. 1959-1971 2.7 : National Accounts - Agriculture, Cereals - Surfaces, Yields, Production, Prices and Value Added - 1959-1971 2.8 : National Accounts - Agriculture, Starches and Vegetables - Surfaces, Yields, Production, Prices and Value Added - Cur- rent Prices, 1959-1971 2.9 : National Accounts - Agriculture, Cotton and Groundnuts - Surfaces, Yields, Production, Prices and Value Added - Current Prices, 1959-1971 2.10 : National Accounts - Livestock, Production, Prices, Value Added, Current Prices, 1959-1971 2.11 : National Accounts - Livestock, Production, Prices, Value Added, Constant Prices, 1959-1971 2.12 : National Accounts - Fisheries, Production, Prices, Value Added, Current Prices, 1959-1971 2.13 : National Accounts - Fisheries, Production, Prices, Value Added, Constant Prices, 1959-1971  - x 2.14 : National Accounts - Public Utilities, Manufacturing, Production at Current Prices, 1959-1971 2.15 : National Accounts - Public Utilities, Manufacturing, Value Added at Current Prices, 1969-1971 2.16 : National Accounts - Public Utilities, Manufacturing, Value Added, at 1971 Prices, 1959-1971 2.17 : National Accounts - Groundnut Processing, Production and Value Added, Current and Constant Prices, 1959-1971 2.18 : National Accounts - Mining, Production and Value Added, Current and Constant Prices, 1959-1971 2.19 * Expenditure Account on GDP, 1961-1971 2.20 : Gross Domestic Investments, 1959-1971 2.21 : Gross National Product/Domestic and National Savings 3.1 : Balance of Payments, 1968-71 3.2 : Foreign Trade - Adjusted - 1965-1970 3.3 : Exports by Commodity Group, Mission Estimates, 1959-70 3.3 : Contd. 3.4 : External Trade, Exports by Commodity Group, Mission Estimate in Value, 1959-71 3.5 : External Trade, Exports by Commodity Group, Mission Estimates in Value, 1959-71 3.6 : External Trade, Exports by Commodity Group, In Percentage Mission Estimates, In Value and in Percentage of the Total, 1959-71 3.7 : External Trade, Exports by Commodity Group, Custom's Statistics In Value, 1965-71 3.8 : Export Volumes by Commodities 3.9 : External Trade, Imports by Commodity Group Mission Estimate in Value, 1959-71 3.10 : External Trade, Imports by Commodity Group, Mission Estimate in Percentage of Total, 1959-71 3.11 : External Trade Import Volumes by Commodity Group Customs Statistics, 1964-70 3.12 : Agricultural Statistics - Value of Major Agriculture Related Goods, 1964-1970 3.13 : Agricultural Statistics - Quantity of Imports of Food, Beverages and Tobacco, 1964-1970 3.14 : Foreign Trade by Monetary Zones and Commodity Groups in Value Customs Statistics, 1965-70 3.15 : External Trade: Foreign Trade by Monetary Zone and Principal Countries Mission Estimates, 1965-70 3.16 : Total Inflow of Foreign Public Aid, 1966-71 3.17 : FAC Aid to Senegal, Commitments and Disbursements, 1961-71 3.18 : FED Aid, Commitments and Disbursements, 1961-71 3.19 : CCCE Aid to Senegal, Commitments and Disbursements, 1961-71 3.20 : Foreign Investment Aid by Sector and Donor, 1963-1971 3.21 : Foreign Technical Assistance by Sector and Donor, 1963-1971 4.1 : External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1971 4.2 : External Public Debt as of December 31. 1973 5.1 : Fiscal Statistics Central Government Current Budget Revenues, 1965/66-1971/72  - xi - 5.2 : Fiscal Statistics Central Government Current Expenditures - Economic Classification - 1962/63-1970-71 5.3 : Fiscal Statistics Central Government Current Expenditures - Functional Classification - 1962/63-1971/72 5.4 : Fiscal Statistics Central Government Current Expenditures - Functional Classification - 1962/63-1972/73 5.5 International Comparison of the Functional Breakdown of Central Governments Expenditures 5.6 : Operations of the Tresor, 1967-72 5.7 : Fiscal StatisticS, Savings of Public Enterprises, 1966/67-1970/71 5.8 : Fiscal Statistics, Public Investments and their Financing, 1967/68-1970/71 5.9 : Public Plan Outlays 1961-1969 5.10 : Third Development Plan: 1969/70-1972/72 Public Plan Outlays. 6.1 : Monetary Statistics - Monetary Survey, 1964-1971 6.2 : Monetary Statistics - Analysis of Outstanding Medium and Long Term Credit, 1963-1971 6.3 : Monetary Statistics - Analysis of Outstanding Short Term Credit, 1964-1971 7.1 : Rural Sector Statistics - Groundnut Cultivation, 1947-1972 7.2 : Rural Sector Statistics - Comparative Evolution of Groundnut Prices and Fertilizer Costs, 1961/62-1971/72 7.3 : Rural Sector Statistics - Quantities of Fertilizer and Selected Equipment Distributed to Farmers: 1961-70, and Planning for 1972 7.4 : Rural Sector Statistics: Number of Pirogues 7.5 : Rural Sector Statistics: Trawler Fishing 7.6 : Rural Sector Statistics: Tuna Production 7.7 : Rural Sector Statistics: Central Government Current Expenditures on Fisheries - Budget 8.1 : Road Transport 8.2 : Railway Traffic 8.3 : Port of Dakar: Commercial Traffic 8.4 : Secondary Ports: Commercial Traffic 8.5 : Air Traffic 9.1 : Annual Minimum Wages Paid in the Public and Private Sectors 9.2 : Official Minimum Monthly Salaries 9.3 : Real Annual Wages in Various Sectors   - xiii - COUNTRY DATA - SENEGAL ARFA POPULATION DENSITY ,700 ha 4 0iflflon (aid-1972) per ki2 20 Rate of rovth: 2.2 s (frm 1965-1972) per kbrs of arabe lend 34 POWflATION cLA4AcTrIRrSTICS HllLTH rn-dr Rirth Rate .. er 1,0CC) 44.0 (1970) 7piltion per physician 17,500 (1970) CnA,o Snath R.,e (per 1,000) 22.0 (1970) Population per hospital bed 710 (1970) T.fWn Mortality (per 1,000 live births) 156 (1968) TNCOME DISTRI1 JTION DISTFIBISIION OF LA4D OWINERSHIP I or national inco;ne, lowest 75 percent (rural population): 27 % owned by top 10$ of osn ra aiddle nli percent (urben population) 60 $ osned by maflest 10% of owners highest 1 percent (foreigners) 13 ACCESS TO) PIPED WATER ACCESS TO USKTRICITY E of population - urbn % of population - urban - rural -rural 'II ~lrr7ITT EDUCATIOY 1971 Calorte intake a. % of recuirements 2.300 /day /capita AdTul sioy r tre t% 5-10 (1970) Per capit protein intake esti,nated high comted to other arrican countries Primary *ehool enrollment 4: (1970) GNP PER CAlPITA in 1971 iROI; DOMrrESTIC PROPLJCT IN 1969/71 ANNtUAL RATE OF GRCOWT (5, constant prices) US S . mm. 1960-65 1965_70 1 ri, at Market Prices 86} 100 2% _ 20.14% ron Tuestic Investment 165 19.1 45/2 1l$ L2 2 L2 rlrosr National Saving 96 11.2 -5% Z3 3.3$ 42% Current Account Balance - 69 B.c - 8%/4 230% Kxports Of Goods, NFS 202 23.4 9%% -18% T.p,u,,, of r(ode, N1S 257 29.8 .A 1t4 OIIT'IIT, LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 1970 a Addd (GDP factor cost) Labor Fbrce V.A. Per Worker k,ric,lt.re 232 31.0 1.2 73 195 42 Iodustry 130 17.3 0.1 6 1,44G 314 Servines 387 51.7 0.2 14 1,i647 360 Unenip nycd , . 0.1 7 -- -- Total/Average 7 I6 0 10', 'TNM'WNT FINAJCE Senoral Sovernent Central Goverrment (CFAr IQnj 0 ODP (CFAF biltof0nJ % of 0GDP (CPA? billtim) 4 of TDP 197Zl#I 170'7 l7ri 1367/1 7 i977 Cur,eruI. Feceipts 40.7 18.4 18.5 LO.7 18.4 38.4 19.5 Curr-tt Expenditure 38 0 17.2 17.1 358 C 17.2 35.4 17.1 Current Surplus 5.1 L5 2.3 L5 1 8 LS *' .n 3.5 1.7 CepiLsl Expenditures 14.1 6.14 7.2 1' 44. 10.7 external Assistance (nst) 5.6 3.9 4. 1/ The Per Capita GNP estimate is at 1970 market prices, calculated by the same conversion technique as the 1972 World Atls. All other conversions to dollars in this table are at the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered. 2/ Excludin stocks. ,q69G1-, ,5 It "-870 T Tncluding surpluses of special funds nd savings of public enterprises. not available not applicable  - xiv - COUNTRY DATA - SENEGAL MOfNEY. CREDIT AND PRICES ( IFAF 12 e on's20ersg ) Money and Quasi Money 30.5 32.0 34. 379 Bank Credit to Public Sector -1.4 -0.d - 0.5 Bark Credit to Private Sector 35.6 38.6 39.o (Percentages or ielex Nmbers) Money and Quasi Money as % of rDP 12.9 15.0 14.7 14.6 ens-rl Price Tndex (1961 . 100) 105.7 119.0 123.6 13i.4 Annual Percentage changes in: leneral Price Index T 2.1 4.4 3.9 6.3 :overroeenn Deposito T - 57 33'5 Bach credit to Priv-te Sector a 4.8 -0.6 . d3 ; 1 0 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERArE 1968-71) 1969 1970 l US $ MIn 4 (Miflions US) Gruoudnuts and Groundnut cpur-tl or bode, WPS 183 240 204 Products 66 7 4. 9 Tmp-orts or (bods, aNS 236 253 281 Miscellaneous Manufactured Products p7.4 22.O cede deficit _ 13 _ Food.beverages, tobacco 24.8 13.3 ,!crest Paments (n.t) - 11 - 1L - 14 All other cmn,odities 34.1 20y1I Witt-ro' Remittances TOTAL 163O 10U.O Frctor Pyents (net) ) 17 17 19 TreT sfers )- EXTERNAL DEBT, DECEORE 31. 1971 B-nucce on Current Account - 42 - 10 - 72 (i-cluding transfers) US $ il lri-aLe loig ten cpitatl (net) 9 5 7 >rt ete short ten capital (net) - 2 - 4 ) Mediu- ad Long-ten. Credits, Public 167.8 icid1 Grento 13 17 ) Non-Outranteed Prints MLT Loans 22 9 41 Total Outstanding ad Disbursed Amortisation 4 I - 3 ) Other (net) 1 2 DEBT SERVICE RATIO for 1971 . 4 rs and Oiniss2on2 2 22 25 31 70 ease in reserves (-oincrease) 7 - 21 - 2 na Reserves June 30 25 30 40 Reserves 7 - 14 IE OF EXCHANGE IDRD/rDA LENDING. July 31. 1973 (Million US J$_ .'_j O_snAc-ber 71 '1t'CFAF 27 .IBr L >1 1 0 * ns$ od0036 Outstunding N Disbursed I6. s- zn:cr 71 through Jannary 731ttang (-i. tdisbor-ed ,r. t i ^ * crAs 2')n.79~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1~9 1 PAF 1.0 * US $ 0.0039 b-iruery 73 4 1.0 = CFAF 230.2 RAF 1.0 iOS $ 0.0043 amt acailable to-t applicable Western Africa Regional Office August 15, 1973  HR AA~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~M A U RI TA N - A SPANISH ~IlRA LIBYAER SENEGAL . 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