Zambia - Third Education Project

TO BE - -LiFQORTS Dr' DOCUMENT OF INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Not For Public Use FILE C0EPr"Y Report No. 126a-ZA APPRAISAL OF A THIRD EDUCATION PROJECT REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA May 9, 1973 Regional Projects Department Eastern Africa Regional Office This report was prepared for official use only by the Bank Group. It may not be pubushed, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report.  i CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS U5$l 0 o.643 Kwacha (K) Kwacha (K) i US$1.56 Ngwee (n) lO 1 Kwacha Kwacha 1 million = US$1,555,693 GIXSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS CCU - Correspondence Course Unit CDC - CLrriculum Development Center CHHTC - Chainama Hills Health Training Center CTEVT - Commission for Technical Education and Vocational Training FI - Farm Institute FNDP - First National Development Plan (1966-O) FTC - Farmers Training Center IRC - Instructional Resources Center, Department of Technical Education, Ministry of Education NORAD - Norwegian Agency for International Development OSAS - Overseas Service Aid Scheme SIDA - Swedish International Development Authority SNDP - Second National Development Plan (1972-76) TTC - Teacher Training College ZIT - Zamoia Institute of Technology GOVRNMiNT OF THE REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31  ZAMBIA APPRAISAL OF A THIRD EDUCATION PROJECT Table of Contents Page No. BASIC DATA SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ....................... i-ii I. INTRODUCTION... 1 II. SOCIO-ECONOMIC BACKGROUND AND THE EDUCATION SYSTEM. 1 General Characteristics. 1 The Economy and Development Planning 2 The Education System .. 2 Cost and Financing of Education 4 III. M-ANPOWER AND EDUCATION NEEDS. 6 General ................................. 6 Medical Training Facilities .6. The Need to Improve Agricultural Staff and Farmer Training. 8 Technical Education Requirements 9 Educational Services. 9 Secondary and Teacher Education ......... 10 IV. THE PROJECT .11 General ......,........................ 11 Medical Education .12 Agricultural Education .14 General Education .16 Technical Assistance .17 Cost of the Project .18 This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission in October/November 1972 to the Republic of Zambia composed of Messrs. D. Brewin (mission leader, agricultural educator), R. Byron (technical educator), J. Hilmy (economist), C. Hammer- schmidt (architect), F. Dunnill (advisor), Ms T. Sato (loan officer) of the Bank, and Dr. D. Carlson, (consultant). Mr. E. Sawaya (economist) of the Bank and Mr. K. Andersen (architect) of UNESCO also contributed to its preparation.  Table of Contents (Cont'd) Page No. V. IMPLEMENTATION kND DISBURSEMENT .... ........... 21 Execution of the Project .... ............. 21 Land ..................................... 22 Procurement .............................. 22 Disbursement ............................. 22 VI. RECOMMENDATIONS ............................... 23 ANNEXES 1. Comparative Education Indicators 2. The Education System Tables: 1. Primary School Enrollment - 1964-1971 2. Primary and Secondary School Staff (1971) 3. Secondary School Enrollments (1971) 4. The University of Zambia - Enrollments (1971) 5. Ministry of Education Technical and Vocational Training - Enrollments and Outputs Attachmen-s: 1. Location of Schools for Enrolled Nurses 2. Location of Schools for Enrolled Midwives 3. Total National Expenditure on Education and Training, 1971 4. Recurrent Expenditure by the Ministry of Education 5. Projection of Unit Costs at 1971 Constant Prices for Certain Categories of Education 6. Ministry of Rural Development Recurrent and Capital Expenditure 7. Recurrent and Capital Expenditure on Health 8. Capital Expenditure by the Ministry of Education 9. Foreign Aid for Education and Training 10. Projection of Recurrent Expenditure - 1inistry of Education 11. Tne Health Situation in Zambia 12. Medical Services - Staff Employed - July 1971 13. Medical Personnel - Selected Categories of Priority Need 14. Ministry of Rural Development - Existing Agriculturally Trained Staff, 1971 15. Para-statal Organizations and the Private Sector - Existing Manpower Stock, 1971  Table of Contents (Cont'd) 16. Summary of Overall Requirements for Agriculturally Trained Manpower, 1981 17. Agricultural Manpower Requirements - Degree Holders, 1971-81 18. Farm Institutes and Farmers Training Centers - Utilization Rates 1970 19. Manpower Requirements by Educational. Level 1970-1976 and 1977-1986 20. Facilities to be Constructed and/or Extended under the Third Education Project 21. Technical Assistance 22. Government Medical Training Institutions - Forecast of Output of Trained Staff 1972-1981 23. University of Zambia School of Agricultural Sciences - Forecast of Student Numbers to 1981 24. Location of Farm Institutes, Farmers Training Centers and Mobile Units included under the Project 25. Additional Facilities Required for Secondary Schools and Teacher Training Colleges 26. Summary of Project Costs in Kwacha, November 1972 Prices 27. Summary of Contingency Allowances 28. Composition of Project Units 29. Project Implementation Schedule 30. Responsibility for Design and Supervision of Project Institutions 31. Expenditure Schedule 32. Estimated Schedule of Disbursement CHARTS 1. Structure of the Education System 2. Education Pyramid, 1971 MAP   Z A M B I A BASIC DATA (Est.) - 1971 Population (Est. 1971) 4.25 miilion Population growth rate 2.5% Total labor force 1.20 million Wage and salary employment 0.h0 million Education Government and Aided Schools Primary education (grades 1-7) - enrollment 730,000 - ratio of enrolled to age group (7-13 yrs) 89% Secondary education (grades 8-12 yrs) - enrollment 56,00O - ratio of enrolled to age group (l4-18 yrs) 12% University of Zambia - enrollment (full-time degree students) l,400 - ratio of enrolled to age group (19-22 yrs) 0.4% Expenditures Central government recurrent expenditure on education K 58.0 million - as a percentage of central government recurrent expenditure l17.4% National educational expenditure K &5.7 million - as a percentage of total GDP 5.6%   ZMAIA APPRAISAL OF A THIRD EDUCATION PROJECT SIUIMARY AND CONCLUSIONS i. This report appraises a third education project in Zambia for which a loan of US$33.0 million is proposed. The first education project is help- ing to expand and improve secondary education, teacher training and the train- ing of technicians and craftsmen for industry; the second project has extended the schools of education and engineering of the University of Zambia. After initial delays due to management problems, the first project was making good progress when, in 1972, serious financial problems caused a rephasing of the project and an extension of the closing date by more than two years. The second project is nearing completion. ii. Zambia's economv is dominated by the copper industry which has had the effect of bringing about great disparities in degree of development be- tween the industrial and traditional rural sectors, each accommodating about half the population. Increasing copper prices up to 1970 encouraged the Gov- ernment to engage in substantial development schemes including projects which provided for increases in enrollments in all types of education. In 1970 however, a sharp decline in copper prices accompanied by a disaster at one of the country's major mines transformed the economic situation and created a need for the Government to scale down its development expenditures. iii. The proposed project would eliminate gaps in certain areas of agri- cultural and medical training, assist in correcting the imbalance between the modern and traditional sectors by strengthening farmer training programs, bring about economies and improve efficiency by integrating certain educat- ional services, and provide additional facilities for a number of secondary schools and teacher training colleges being financed under the Bank's first education project. iv. Specifically, the project would help finance the construction of new facilities for, extensions to and/or equipment for the following: - twelve medical training institutions; - a University School of Agricultural Sciences; - seven farmers training centers, three farn institutes and two mobile training units; - an educational services center; - sixty one secondary schools and four teacher training colleges. In addition, the project would provide 115 man-years of technical assistance specialists for planning, administration and teaching, plus fellowships for the training of Zambians.  - ii - v. The total cost of the project is estimated at US$40.1 million; the proposed loan would be US$33.0 million or about 82% of the total project cost. It would finance the foreign exchange component of US$25.3 million and US$7.7 million of the local costs. The loan would be apportioned as follows: US$16.0 million for civil works and related professional services, US$4.2 million for furniture and equipment, US$3.3 million for technical assistance and project implementation and US$9.5 million for contingencies. Contracts for civil works, furniture and equipment would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding. It is likely that most civil works contracts would be won by contractors already established in Eastern Africa. Nearly all equipment and furniture would be imported. Local manufacturers of furniture and equipment would be awarded a margin of preference equivalent to the existing customs duties applicable to competing imports or 15% of the c.i.f. price, which- ever is the lower. vi. The Government would set up a Coordinating Committee to formulate procedures for carrying out the project and coordinate action between the various agencies involved. Techni-cal assistance would be provided for a project unit in the Ministry of Power, Transport and Works, which would implement the project, except for (a) the Universitv School of Agricultural Sciences and (b) the additional facilities for secondary and teacher education, which would be implemented by the existing project units in the University and the Ministry of Education respectively. vii. Implementatior of the project would be completed within about six years of the effective date of the Loan Agreement. viii. Sub_ect to the conditions set down in para. 6.01, the proposed project is suitab1e as a basis for a Loan of US$33.0 million to the Government of Zambia.  I. INTRODUCTION 1.01 A joint FAO/Bank mission visited Zambia in 1971 and identified education projects for Bank financing primarily in the agricultural field but including some medical and technical training items. After discussions between the Government and the Bank, the Government, assisted by FAO, UNESCO, VMO and PMEA, prepared in 1972 a request for Bank financing. 1.02 In October/Noverber 1972 a mission comprising Messrs. D. Brewin (mission leader, agricultural educator), R. Byron (technical educator), D. Carlson (medical educator, consultant), J. Hilmy (economist), C. Hammer- schmidt (architect) and, for part of the time, F. Dunnill (advisor) and Ms T. Sato (loan officer), visited Zambia to appraise the project. It rec- ommended inclusion, with certain modifications, of the items requested by the Government, except for, (a) hostel accommodation at the Evelyn Hone College of Appiied Arts and Commerce which could not be justified and (b) the Zambia institute of Technology for which future plans had not yet been determined. 1.03 This would be the third education project in Zambia assisted by the Bank. The first (Loan 592-ZA 1969) was made to help expand and improve secondary education, teacher training and the training of technicians and craftsmen in industry. As a result of management problems the project was slow in starting. When these problems were solved, serious fiscal diffi- culties made it impossible for the Government to provide its full counterpart contribution; it has therefore requested additional Bank financing and an ex- tension of the closing date by some 2-1/2 years. The second project (Loan 645-ZA 1969) has provided assistance for extensions to the University of Zambia. It was delayed by managerial deficiencies and shortages of building materials but 4s now almost completed. IT. SOCIO-ECONOMIC BACKGROUI,D A&.D THE EDUCATION SYSTEM General Characteristics 2.01 Zambia is a landlocked countrv in the southern half of Africa on a highi plateau intersected by valleys of the Zambesi River and its tributaries. The country is sparsely populated; 4.25 million people in 752,600 km2, or only 6 per km2, Tt became independent in 1964. The governina United National Independence Party, the only political party, follows a program kinown as "Zambian hunanism" initiated by President Kaunda; it aims at a return to the values of traditional African society which was "man-centered" rather than "weaIth" or `i.-eologv-centered"; in education, it stresses "discipline, judgement and courage."  -2- The Economy and Development Planning 2.02 The economy of Zambia is dominated by the copper industry which contributes nearly 40% of GDP, 95% of exports, and, until 1970, 60% of Govern- ment revenue. GNP per capita is relatively high but there is a distinct dif- ference, reflected in large income disparities, between the modern and the traditional rujral sectors. 2.03 The modern sector, which sustains almost half the population, is concentrated in the Copperbelt Province and along the "line-of-rail" which runs through the central and southern areas of the country. The remaining half of the population is dependent on sm.all scale agriculture. Most of the agricultural development was concentrated, before independence, in the ex- patriate commercial farming sector along the "line-of-rail" and the tradi- tional African sector was neglected. 2.04 Because of the dominance of the copper industry, Zambia's economy is largelv dependent on the world copper price which has varied widely during recent years. Between 1964 and 1969 national income at constant prices had grown, on an average, by almost 17% per year. Increasing copper prices pro- duced growing budget and balance of payments surpluses. In 1970 the sharp decline in coprer prices and partial flooding of the important Mufulira Mine caused a serious economic setback. GNP per capita is estimated to have fallen from. $425 in 1969 to about $355 in 1971. Net foreign reserves declined from K 432 million in August 1970 to K 85 million in December 1972. 2,05 The Government's first (1966-1970) and second (1972-1976) N'ational Development Plans (FNDP and SNDP) aimed at spreading the benefits of develop- ment more evenly by (a) rapidly raising the general level of education and developing technical, administrative and managerial skills to lessen depend- ence on expatriates;(b) increasing the productivity of traditional agriculture in areas with sufficient potential; (c) diversifying the economy to make it less dependent on copper; and (d) raising the general level of social welfare. The most effectively implemented parts of the FNTDP were the expansion of edu- cation and health facilities. The Education System (A detailed description is given in Annex 2.) 2.06 Primarv Education, which is not compulsory, is provided for some 80%' of the age group and consists of seven years of schooling. A substantial enrollment increase since independence has been achieved at the expense of a high pupil:teacher ratio (50:1), increased grade repetition, large numbers of double, and, in some urban areas, triple session schools, poor school attendance and the use of unsatisfactory buildings. Migration, mostly from rural to urban areas, has contributed to mald4stribution of schools. Nine colleges provide primarv teacher training; the Bank's first education project iIas contributed to expansion of both in-service and pre-service training schemes which, when the project is coripleted, will be adequate to meet the anticipated demand.  - 3 - 2.07 Secondary Education is provided in some 120 schools; it comprises three years of lower and two years of upper cycle education. Enrollments reached 56,000 or 12% of the age group in 1971 and are increasing further with Bank assistance, but again, the rapid increase has seriously affected the quality of education. 88% of Zambia's secondary teachers are non-Zambian but expansion of teacher training, partially financed under the Bank's first and second education projects, is underway and it is anticipated that by 1976 Zambians will occupy about half the teaching posts required. 2.08 Higher Education is provided in the seven "schools" of the Univer- sity of Zambia which include courses in education, engineering, medicine and agricultural sciences; the latter uses temporary facilities. In 1971 there were some 1,400 full-time degree students enrolled; academic standards are high, but the University experiences many of the problems of young and grow- ing institutions; the staff is almost entirely expatriate. 2.09 Education Services are provided by the Ministry of Education in widely scattered institutions and include a Curriculum Development Center, Correspondence Course Unit, Audio-Visual Services Librarv and Zambia Library Service; the former Commission for Techlnical Education and Vocational Training (now part of the Ministrv) also had its own Instructional Resources Center which provides sim.ilar facilities for technical training institutions. Details are given in Annex 2. 2.10 The provision of Medical Education is divided between the Govern- ment, the missions and mines in numerous institutions throughout Zambia. The missions and mines provide fairly adequately for their needs below the university level, but provision of training for Government personnel has fallen behind the demand as a result of a rapid expansion of medical services during the First National Development Plan. 2.11 Agricultural Edducation at the university level is provided for a small number of students in inadequate facilities, with limited staff and without a farm] for practical instruction; at diploma and certificate levels, larger numDbers are trained and facilities are better. 2.12 Technical Education has grown rapidly since 1969, particularly at the craftsman leveel, as a result of the setting up by the Government of an independent and well endowed Commission for Technical Education and Vocational Training. Recently, however, the Government decided to reincorporate tech- nical education in the Ministry of Education, primarily for Linancial and .n,anagemrent reasons and set up a working party to review plans and policies. The PBank h.as contributed to an expansion of degree level training in engineer- ing at the IJniversitv, through its second ecducation project.  -4- Cost and Financing of Education 2.13 Financing of Education. Total national exnenditure on education in 1971 amounted to some K 85.7 million or a high 5.6% of GD? (Annex 3). The central Government finances 92% of this amount since the role of private education is negligible and public education is provided wtithout char-e to students. Not only tuition but also board and lodging, text books and ecuip- ment are free and the Treasury also provides students' bursaries. Education expenditure by Government agencies other than the Yinistry of Education is sm.all and const:;tutes only a fraction of their budgets. By far the greater part, 93% of all public education expenditure, is spent by the Ministry of Education, whose budget includes that of the University. 2.14 Recurrent Educational Exnenditure, The Yinistrv of Education recur- rent buidget nearly quadrupled .oetween 1964 and 1972 and rose from 13% of the total Government recurrent budget in 1964 to 16%. in 1971 which is still rela- tively modest. The composition of the education budget changed little over the last fouir years, except for a very significant increase in the share of technical and university education and a slight decrease in secondary educa- tion and teacher training. Primary education maintained its share of nearly 50% of the budget (Annex 4). 2.15 Recurrent costs per student (Annex 5), particularly at secondary and bigiher levevls (US$350 and ITSS3,300 respectively), are high. The cost of boarding raises unit costs by 29% over that of day students; existence of national senools, drawing students from all parts of the country, leads to a higher number of' boarders than is strictly necessarv; the absence of student self-help is ancther element in the high cost level, which limits the growth potential of a system that enrolls only 12% of the student population in secondary schools. 2.16 The Ministry of Rural Development finances agricultural education and training institutions except for the University School of Agriculture. Expenditure on these institutions constituted 7.5% of its 1972 budget (Annex 6). For the Jinistry of Health this percentage is even smaller (3%) and covers the financing of all public medical training establishments, except medical degree courses at the University and medical technician training which are financed by the Ministry of Education (Annex 7). 2.17 Capital. ex=enditure on education has risen very rapidly (it doubled between 1970 and 1972) and increased its share in total Government investments from less than, 7%/ in 1968 to over 18% in 1972 (Annex 8). As usual, the level and composition fluctuated sharply over the years. Particularly striking is the extraordinarily rapid increase in capital expenditure on technical education, which claimed the lion's share of investments between 1968 and 1972 together with secondary education and the University.  -5- 2.1R Zambia receives a considerable amount of foreign aid for education (probably totalling some US815 million per year) particularly in the areas of secondary teacl'er supDlv and technical assistance for technical education. Details are given in Annex 9. 2.10 Future Expenditure. According to the SNDP (1972-76), technical and secondary education will continue to absorb the major part (60%) of the in- vestments in education during the plan period wqhile capital expenditure on the University will slow down. During this period average annual capital ex- penditure by the fir4istry of Education would be maintained at the high level of 1972 (Annex 8) but, as a result of increased investments in other sectors, its proportion of total Government investrents would be halved. Investments in medical and agricultural training by the MIinistries of Health and Rural Developrent would be greatly increased to nearly three times the 1968-72 le'vel. The proposed third Bank education project would constitute about 20% of the total amount of Y. 136.5 million to be invested in education during the SNDP period. 2.20 The high levels of investrment in education during the recent past, if continued during the SNDP period, would also have significant recurrent cost implications which have not been fully assessed by the Government but were estimated by the mission to amount to an annual increase of nearly 12% in recurrent education expenditure by the Ministry of Education between 1971 and 1976 (Annex 10). For the Ministries of Health and Rural Development these percentages are much smaller and constitute only a fraction of the total budget of these ministries. 2.21 The Government now realizes that the SNDP targets are likely to exceed greatly the available resources and that a downward revision of the plans is inevitable in view of the present financial difficulties. Although it has not yet prepared a new plan, it is carrying out a critical evaluation of priorities and revisions are likely to be made as follows: (i) in view of the urgency of replacing expatriate manpower as soon as possible (paras. 3.01 and 3.02), priority will be given to all forms of technical education and voca- tional training, including agricultural and medical training; despite this, the technical education enroll- ment target of 9,300 will probably not be attained and 6,900-7,500 is a more likely range. (ii) The expansion of primary and general secondary education will be slowed down; ongoing projects will be completed (including those financed by the Bank) but new school construction will be deferred. (iii) Plans have been made to recover part of the boarding costs from students, to reduce student bursaries and to increase private industry sponsorship of students.  (iv) Agricultural subsidies might be further reduced and this might free more resources for agricultural training and extension. 2.22 Together, the above mentioned steps would reduce the growth in re- current education expenditure to a more manageable annual rate of 8.4% p.a. and the budget allocation to education would remain below 20% of the total recurrent budget (Annexes 5 and 10). The Government might encounter problems in implementing; the above mentioned stens, in which case there would be some risk that Project implementation might be delaved or the operation of the institutions might be affected; but, in view of the urgent need to expand train- ing as outlined in Chapter III below and the high Driority which the Govern- ment attaches to this Project, this is accentable, particularly because the Government is now in the process of matching plans and resources. III. MAYPOTER ANT EDUCATION NEEDS General 3.01 Compared with countries at the same per capita income level, the educational attainment level of the Zambian labor force is among the lowest. In 1971, a relatively large proportion (54%) of the labor force of 1.2 million was employed in the modern sector of the economy but most of the high and middle level positions were held by expatriates. At independence in 1964, there were only 104 Zambian university graduates and 1,200 with a secondary leaving certificate. C:eat progress has been made in expanding education and training since then but the persistent preponderance of non-Zambian manpower in professional, managerial and technical posts can be gauged from the following percentages of expatriate manpower: JNedical doctors (1971) 96% Secondary school teachers (1971) 88% Architects (1969) 937 Surveyors (1969) 64% Engineers (1969) 70% Production foremen (1969) 55% 3.02 Government policy is to replace expatriates by Zambians as quickly as possible, wjhch renuires a considerable effort in education and training in the immediate future. Government also intends to raise the educational attainment of Zambian staff, build up their experience and improve working conditions, thus raising productivity at managerial and administrative levels. 3.03 l4anI'over deta used in the late 1960's, which envisaged the creation of about 100,000 jols during the FPDP, are no longer appropriate because of the changed economic situatlon (para. 2.04). Wage employment is unlikely to rise as ranidly as in the past. A slowing down of the expansion of general education and a greater emphasis on specific skill training in areas where tle supply of manpo7ccr is still far below the demand will be necessary. Mec] ical Tra- n4n