Turkey - Avian Influenza and Human Pandemic Preparedness and Response Project

Page 1 PROJECT INFORMATION DOCUMENT (PID) APPRAISAL STAGE Report No.: AB2025 Project Name AVIAN INFLUENZA AND HUMAN PANDEMIC PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE Region EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA Sector Animal production (40%);Health (30%);Agro-industry (30%) Project ID P096262 Borrower(s) GOVERNMENT OF TURKEY Implementing Agency Undersecretariat of Treasury Turkey Tel: (90 312) 213 0297 Fax: (90 312) 212 8550 hazine@hazine.gov.tr Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Turkey Ministry of Health Turkey Environment Category [ ] A [X] B [ ] C [ ] FI [ ] TBD (to be determined) Date PID Prepared December 7, 2005 Date of Appraisal Authorization December 13, 2005 Date of Board Approval March 2, 2006 1. Country and Sector Background (a) Introduction The continuing outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which begun in late 2003 in several Southeast Asian countries and have occurred more recently in Europe, have been disastrous to the poultry industry in the two regions and have raised serious global public health concerns. Nearly 140 million domestic poultry have either died or been destroyed and over 120 people have contracted the infection, of which 63 have died as of October 2005. Recent increases in the number of known cases of avian influenza (AI) transmission have raised concerns over the potential emergence of a pandemic, which could have devastating effects on human health and livelihoods. At the same time, it is important to emphasize that there are many uncertainties about whether and when a pandemic might occur, as well as about its potential impact. Humans are not very susceptible to the disease, but if infected with the Asian H5N1 strain, they could exhibit a high case fatality rate. The geographical spread of HPAI, the human dimension, and the potential enormous social and economic impact are unprecedented. Economic losses to the Asian poultry sector alone are estimated to date at around $10 billion. Despite control measures the disease continues to spread, causing further economic losses and threatening the livelihood of hundreds of millions of livestock farmers, jeopardizing smallholder entrepreneurship and commercial poultry production, and seriously impeding regional and international trade, Page 2 and market opportunities. The rural poor, who rely for a larger share of their income on poultry, have been particularly hard hit with income losses. It is impossible to anticipate when the next influenza pandemic may occur or how severe its consequences may be. On average, three pandemics per century have been documented since the 16 th century, occurring at intervals of 10-50 years. In the 20 th century, pandemics occurred in 1918, 1957 and 1968. The pandemic of 1918 is estimated to have killed almost 50 million people in eighteen months, with peak mortality rates occurring in people aged 20-45 years. The pandemics of 1957 and 1968 were milder, but many countries nevertheless experienced major strains on health care resources. If a major pandemic were to appear again, similar to the one in 1918, even with modern advances in medicine, an unparalleled toll of illness and death could result. Air travel might hasten the spread of a new virus, and decrease the time available for preparing int erventions. Countries