Tunisia - El Borma - Gabes Gas Pipeline Project

ZOPA 7--it-raUJ RESTRICTED Report No. PTR-66A This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations. They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views. IN'TERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION APPRAISAL OF THE SOCIETE TUNISIEN' DE L'ELECTRICITE ET DU GAZ EL BORMA-GABES GAS PIPELINE PROJ TUNISIA January 4, 1971 Transportation Projects Department  Currency Eauivalents Tunisian Dinars (TD) 0.525 = US$1.00 Tunisian Dinars (TD) 1.0 = US$1.90 Tunisian Dinars (TD) 1,000,000 = US$1,900,000 Financial Year Tanuary 1 to December 31 Units Units are in the Metric System Length Kilometers (km) 1.0 = 0.6214 miles (mi) Meters (m) 1.0 = 3.281 feet (ft) Centimeters (ccm) 1.0 = 0.3937 inches (ins) Pressure Bars 1.0 = 14.503 pounds per souare inch (psi) Kilograms per sauare centimeter (kg/cm2) 1.0 = 14.223 pounds per square inch (psi) Thermal Kilogram calorie 1.0 = 3.968 British Thermal (kcal) Units (BTU) Thermie (th) 1.0 = 3968 British Thermal Units (BTU) Volume of natural gas Cubic meter (m3) 1.0 = 35.315 Cubic feet (cf) Thousand cub'c meters (10'c3) 1.0 = 35.315 Thousand cubic feet (Mcf) Million cubic meters (10m3) 1.0 = 35.315 Million cubic feet (M14cf) Electricity Kwh 1.0 Kilowatt hour Mlwh 1.0 = 1 x 103 Kilowatt hours Gwh 1.0 = 1 x 106 Kilowatt hours Abbreviations STEG - Societe Tunisienne de l'Electricite et du Gaz SITEP - Societe Italo-Tunisienne d'Exploitation Petroliere STIR - Societe Tuniso-Italienne de Raffinage SEREPT - Societe d'Etudes et de Recherches Petrolieres Tunisienne  TUNISIA APPRAISAL OF THE SOCIETE TUNISIENNE DE L'ELECTRICITE EL DU GAZ EL BORMA-GABES GAS PIPELINE PROJECT Table of Contents Page No. SUMNARY AND CONCLUSIONS .......................... i 1. INTRODUCTION ......... ............................ 1 2. BACKGROUND ......... .............................. 2 A. General ......... ............................ 2 B. The Power Sector ............................ 2 C. The Petroleum Sector ..... ................... 3 3. THE BORROWER . .................................... . 4 A. Organization ....... ......................... 4 B. Tariffs ......... ............................ 5 C. Purchase and Transport of Gas .... ........... 5 4. THE PROJECT .............................. 6 A. Investment Program .......................... 6 B. Description of the Project .... .............. 6 C. Design and Engineering ..... ................. 7 D. Construction Cost Estimates .... ............. 7 E. Procurement ....... .......................... 8 F. Disbursement ................................ 9 G. Operation of the System ..................... 9 5. ECONOMIC EVALUATION .............................. 10 A. General ......... ............................ 10 B. Justification of the STEG Investment Program 10 C. The Proposed Pipeline Project .11 This report has been prepared by Messrs. D. C. Elliott (Head of mission) Y. Abe and H. Harries (Economists) B. Rollins (Financial Analyst) and K. Sonney (Engineer).  - 2 - 6. FINANCES . ........................................ 14 A. Introduction ................................ 14 B. Revenues and Expenses ..... .................. 14 C. Cash Flow .................................. 15 D. Balance Sheets .............................. 16 E. Financing the Project ..... .................. 17 7. RECOMMENDATIONS ........ .......................... 18 ANNEXES 1. Considerations Determining Line Diameter 2. Organogram 3. Demand for Natural Gas 4. Demand and Supply of Electricity 5. Gas Reserves 6. Assumptions Used for Economic Return Calculations 7. Assumptions Used in Financial Forecasts TABLES 1. Investment Program 2. Estimated Capital Cost of Pipeline 3. Estimated Capital Cost of Compression and Treatment Plant 4. Estimated Schedule of Disbursements 5. Statement of Pipeline Costs 6. Gas Supply Requirements 7. Projected Statement of Profit and Loss 8. Projected Balance Sheets 9. Financial Ratios 10. Cash Flow Statements MAP Electric Grid and Pipelines  TUNISIA APPRAISAL OF THE SOCIETE TUNISIENNE DE L ELECTRICITE ET DU GAZ EL BORMA-GABES GAS PIPELINE PROJECT SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS i. Oil was first discovered in the southern desert of Tunisia at El Borma in 1964 and production in commercial quantities started in 1966. Associated with the oil is natural gas which comes out of the well when oil is extracted. There are no towns or villages in the area which could use the gas and since the cost of storing the gas would be prohibitive, this valuable natural resource has been flared off in the desert. ii. Societe Tunisienne de lVElectricite et du Gaz (STEG), a state owned corporation, having decided to build a thermal power station at Rhennouch near Gabes on the east coast and being aware that gas was being flared some 300 km to the south, undertook a study to determine whether it wwould be feasible to transport gas from El Borma by pipeline and use it as a fuel in the power station. The study showed that using this gas would be cheaper than using fuel oil. iii. The Bank and the Kuwait Fund have been asked by STEG to provide loans to cover the foreign exchange component, estimated at US$10 million, of a US$13.6 million project to build a gas pipeline from El Borma to Gabes. The Kuwait Fund has agreed to a joint financing operation, its first with the Bank, in which disbursements would be made parn passu, the Bank pro- viding 75% of each disbursement and the Kuwait Fund 25%. The Kuwait Fund has also agreed to accept the Bank's procedures for appraisal and procure- ment of goods and services. The local currency component of the prolf:ict (US$3.6 million) would be provided by STEC from internally generated .unds. Consultants satisfactory to the Bank have designed the project and wi supervise construction. iv. This would be the Bank's first loan to STEG. The Kuwait Fund has made two previous loans to STEG for US$11.2 million in 1963 and US$12.9 mil- lion in 1967. Both loans have been fully disbursed and the performance of STEG under the loans has been satisfactory to the Kuwait Fund. v. STEG is a state owned corporation formed in 1962 to take over and operate the assets of electricity and gas companies which had been national- ized. Its main electricity generating station is at La Goulette, Tunis, and electricity is distributed throughout northern and central Tunisia by a national grid. vi. STEG's present management is efficient and well qualified but has inherited many problems which it will take some time to solve. At lower  - ii - echelons there is over staffing and not all the incumbents are suited for their posts. A retraining program is under way and the number of staff is gradually being reduced. vii. STEG i8 a financially profitable company making a considerable contribution from its own resources to investment in fixed assets but partly as a result of this heavy reliance on own resources, there is a short-term liquidity problem. The financial rate of return of STEG on its net fixed assets is estimated to rise from 2% to 4.5% by 1980. However, this rate is depressed and distorted by STEG's conservative accounting and depreciation policies. If the accounts are notionally adjusted to bring them in line with normal practice in power companies, that rate would ave- rage over 7.5% during the period, which is satisfactory. viii. The most probable discount rate at which the difference in the cost and benefit streams of the proposed pipeline and the next best alter- native is reduced to zero is 12%. This establishes the pipeline project as the least cost solution for the supply of fuel to the new power plant, which is estimated to have an economic rate of return in excess of 25%. ix. The proposed project is suitable for joint financing by Kuwait Fund and Bank loans of US$2.5 million equivalent and US$7.5 million equivalent respectively. A term of 16 years, corresponding to the life of the project, with a grace period of 3 years, corresponding to the disbursement period, would be appropriate.  TUNISIA APPRAISAL OF THE SOCIETE TUNISIENNE DE L'ELECTRICITE ET DU GAZ EL BORMA-GABES GAS PIPELINE PROJECT 1. INTRODUCTION 1.01 Societe Tunisienne de l'Electricite et du Gaz (STEG), a Govern- men,t owned enterprise, has asked the Bank for a loan of US$7.5 million and the Kuwait Fund for a loan of US$2.5 million to finance the foreign exchange cost of a US$13.6 million high pressure pipeline to carry gas from El Borma in southwest Tunisia to Gabes on the east coast. The Kuwait Fund has agreed to a joint financing operation and to accept the Bank's appraisal and pro- curement procedures. 1.02 The proposed loan would be the first made by the Bank under a joint financing arrangement with the Kuwait Fund, the first for a pipeline in Tunisia and the first by the Bank to STEG. The Kuwait Fund has made two previous loans to STEG, the first in December 1963 for US$11.2 million eqiuivalent and the second in January 1967 for US$12.9 million equivalent. Both loans, which have been fully disbursed, were for the purchase and installation of electricity generating equipment and transmission lines and STEG's performance under the loans has been satisfactory to the Kuwait Fund. 1.03 STEG is now building a new generating station at Rhennouch near Gabes. Financing has been arranged under bilateral arrangements with France, tenders have been awarded and reclamation of land, which had been behind schedule, has been speeded up as a result of the Bank's representations to the Government. Large long lead equipment items and material are on order. It is expected that the site will be completed by October 1970 and p1-nt construction will go forward to completion for service for the wintei 'f 1972-73 as presently scheduled. 1.04 STEG, aware that gas associated with the crude oil being produced at El Borma was being flared, commissioned a study which showed that this gas could profitably be used as fuel for the new generating station by the construction of a pipeline. It is estimated that gas will continue to be produced until 1987. In addition to supplying gas to STEG, the pipeline will also supply small amounts of gas to two industrial companies, Industries Chimiques Maghrebines (ICM) and Briqueterie d'El Hamma. 1.05 This report is the result of a pre-appraisal mission in May 1970 and an appraisal mission in July 1970. Mr. S. Jaroudi of the Kuwait Fund, Messrs. D. C. Elliott (Mission Chief), Y. Abe (Economist), and S.S. El-Fishawy (Senior Counsel), all of the Bank staff, Messrs. Hu Harries and B. Rollins of Hu Harries and Associates together with Mr. K. Sonney of Stone and Webster (Overseas), Consultants retained by the Bank, participated in the appraisal mission. The report was written by Messrs. Elliott, Abe, Harries, Rollins and Sonney.  -2- 2. BACKGROUND A. General 2.01 The Republic of Tunisia covers an area of about 164,000 km2 about one-third the size of France and is bordered by the Mediterranean to the north and east, Algeria to the west and Libya to the south and southeast. Its population is about 4.7 million and has been increasing at about 2.3% per annum since 1964. Most of the population and economic activity are concentrated in the coastal areas and in the north, the southern part of the country being almost deserted. 2.02 Tunisia's gross national product (GNP) in 1969 is estimated at US$1,135 million with a per capita GNIP of US$230. The average annual growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been about 3.5% over the 1965-1969 period. The main sectors in the economy are agriculture and manufacturing generating respectively, 16% and 15% of GDP in 1969. Other important sectors are commerce (14%), transportation, including communications (8%), building and public works (8%) and mining (6%). The balance of payments during the 1960's showed persistent deficits in current account of about US$100 million on annual average. The principal contributors to the foreign exchange earnings are tourism, exports of agriculture products, mainly olive oil, and exports of mineral products such as crude oil and phosphate products. B. The Power Sector 2.03 The present installed electric generating capacity in Tunisia is about 258 MWI, 215 MW of which belongs to STEG and 43 MW to various in- dustrial enterprises as captive plants. Thermal plants account for 87% of STEG's generating capacity, and hydroelectric plants and a few diesel generators for the remainder. The major power plants are at La Goulette with a capacity of 168 MW. Three hydroelectric plants are located at El Aroussia, Nabeur and Fernana in the northwest of Tunisia with 28 MW total capacity. STEG's main energy source is fuel oil and in 1967-69 STEG's consumption accounted for about 40% of total consumption of fuel oils in the country, part of which is imported. 2.04 STEG completed the interconnection of the main consumer areas by a national power grid in 1967. The system contains about 11,000 km of transmission and distribution lines consisting of 1,200 km of high tension line, 4,500 km of medium tension line and 5,100 km of low tension line. Sales have increased by 10.4% per year on the average from 240 GWH in 1961 to 533 GWH in 1969. The northern part of Tunisia, including Tunis, Nabeuz, Bizerte and Jendouba accounts for about 70% of STEG's power sales. Manufacturing industries are the major consumers of medium tension power and households of low tension power.  -3- 2.05 STEG needs to increase its generating capacity to meet growing electricity demand. Presently, STEG is constructing a 15 MW gas turbine at Menzel Bourguiba to meet the electricity peak demand in 1971 and two 30 MW thermal generators at Rhennouch to meet demand from 1972 onwards. It is the Rennouch station which will use natural gas as a fuel. 2.06 The location of generating plants and the national power grid are shown on the Map. C. The Petroleum Sector 2.07 Production of oil in Tunisia started in 1966 at the El Borma field, owned by Societe Italo-Tunisienne d'Exploitation Petroliere (SITEP). SITEP is jointly owned by the Government of Tunisia and AGIP, a subsidiary of ENI, the Italian State holding company in the petroleum sector. Further discoveries were made by Societe d'Etudes et de Recherches Pettrolieres Ttmisienne (SEREPT) at Douleb in 1968. The total production reached about 4 million tons in 1969, of which 3.6 million tons were produced at El Borma. Nci significant new discoveries have been made recently but the search for new fields is continuing. The refinery at Bizerte owned by Societe Tuniso- Italienne de Raffinage (STIR) started operations in 1963. In 1969 the capacity of the refinery was estimated at 1.1 million tons per year and a plan to increase the capacity to 1.5 million tons per year is presently under con- sideration. 2.08 The commencement of domestic crude oil production in 1966 changed the pattern of exports and imports of crude oil and related products. Tu- n:Lsia started to export crude oil in 1966 and by 1969, 2.8 million tons, worth US$40.3 million, were being exported. At the same time, imports of all petroleum products were reduced from 758,000 tons in 1966 to 243,000 tons in 1969. 2.09 Transport of crude oil takes place largely by pipeline. The Map shows the pipelines existing in Tunisia. 2.10 There is at present no large commercial utilization of natural gas in Tunisia. STEG manufactures gas for household use in Tunis using natural gas from a nearby field. Total production of natural gas averages about 900 Mcf per day of which about 60 Mcf is distributed directly to industries in Tunis; the remaining natural gas is reformed to manufactured gas and distributed to domestic customers. At El Borma field, natural gas was first produced in 1966 by SITEP in association with crude oil. Up to now it has been flared. The availability of this gas has led to a project for the transportation and utilization of natural gas as a fuel for STEG's new generators which will be installed at Rhennouch. It is for this project that a Bank loan has been requested.  -4- 3. THE BORROWER A. Organization 3.01 Societe Tunisienne de L'Electricite et du Gaz (STEG) was created by Decree-Law No. 62-8 of April 3, 1962 to take over and operate the assets and liabilities of seven private utility companies which had been nation- alized. At the request of the Tunisian Government and the shareholders, the President of the Bank acted as conciliator in the settlement and his recommendations issued in 1968 have now been implemented. STEG is a public company wholly owned by the Government, whose equity is expressed by the excess of assets over liabilities rather than share capital. The value of the equity at December 31, 1969 was TD 37.9 million (US$72.3 million equivalent). 3.02 STEG's early years were beset with problems all of which have not yet been solved. Much of the equipment it inherited has now been replaced and a national grid built up. The desire to turn over all posts in the industry to Tunisians created a situation of over-recruitment, with many of the recruits not suited for their responsibilities. 3.03 Records, particularly accounting records, were badly or inadequately kept. Tariffs are basically those inherited from the seven previous companies, although one of STEG's basic objectives, as laid down in the law of April, 1962, is to set tariffs to cover operating expenses and make a contribution to further development. 3.04 The present management, which is competent and energetic, is tackling these problems. Much of the obsolete equipment has been replaced and a national grid built up. Contracts for installation of the new ge- nerating station at Rhennouch have been awarded. A study has been made of the staffing position. A recently developed program of retraining, early retirement and a change in recruitment policies is already showing results. This is particularly evident in senior management. All the senior posts are manned by competent Tunisians and little outside help is needed, except in the accounting field. STEG has made arrangements for Electricite de France to second a senior accountant to them (see para. 6.02). At lower levels the process will take longer. STEG has 3,150 employees while about 2,700 would suffice, and it will not be until 1975 that the staffing posi- tion will be such that there is no excess labor or people in the wrong posts. STEG has agreed to keep the staffing position under continuous re- view and implement policies to improve utilization of manpower and has con- firmed in writing their aim to employ no more than 3,200 people by 1975 despite a 50% increase in production and sales. 3.05 A further reorganization is envisaged as soon as proper statistical and accounting information is available. The distribution function will be decentralized to Districts, each of which will have its own budget and will have both authority and responsibility. STEG headquarters will be responsible for overall policy, the generating function and supplying expertise and  information. Little reliable statistical data are available from the past and it will be two or three years before the data are available to put this system in operation. A computer has already been installed and programmers and statisticians engaged so that a rapid two-way flow of information, vital for efficient management, can be introduced in the decentralized system. STEG has agreed to continue to collect and record statistical and account- ing information in a form which will facilitate management control of STEG's various functions. B. Tariffs 3.06 Tariffs, as mentioned above, were inherited from the previous companies. The number of tariffs has, with effect from January 1, 1970, been cut down and differences between the various companies' rates eliminated. However, the tariffs remain basically those inherited at the inception of ST]EG. A costing study is being undertaken by STEC with the objective of basing tariffs on costs and STEG has agreed to implement this not later than January 1, 1973. C. Purchase and Transport of Gas 3.07 As mentioned in para. 2.10 natural gas is associated with the oil being produced by SITEP. SITEP has now signed a contract ceding the gas to the Government and the government in turn has signed a contract ceding the gas to STEC. Both contracts are satisfactory to the Bank. The SITEP contract provides for sale of all gas to the Government (with the exception of gas needed by SITEP for operation of the field) for a symbolic price of 1 Dinar per million m3. Should gas be needed for reinjection in the field for secondary recovery of oil, then the quantity and timing will be agreed upon by the two parties. 3.08 The law of April 3, 1962 creating STEG did not specifically pro- vide for STEG to transport natural gas. A decree modifying the law has now been published. It is acceptable to the Bank.  - 6 - 4. TIJE PROJECT A. Investment Program 4.01 STEG's investment program for capital works covers investments for additional generating capacity at Rhennouch, additions to the existing transmission grid and the proposed gas pipeline. 4.02 The investment program amounts to about TD 90 million during the period 1970-1980 inclusive. Of this amount TD 7.16 million is for the pro- posed project. Of the total of TD 90 million, TD 40 million will be raised by loan and TD 50 million will come from internally generated funds. Details of the investment program are shown in Table 1. B. Description of-the Project 4.03 The project consists of facilities necessary to provide 34,000 m3 per hour (28.8 MMcf per day) of dry gas for use in the Gabes area. This will require a gathering, compressing and treatment plant at the El Borma oil field, and 294 km of transmission line between El Borma and Gabes. Three sales laterals will also be constructed to supply the Rhennouch plant, Industries Chimiques Maghrebines and Briqueterie d'El Hamma. Gas will not be distributed for domestic or other non-industrial use. 4.04 The project includes: (a) The procurement and installation of 4.1 km of 12-3/4 inch pipe to transport wet gas from the SITEP production center to a compression and treatment plant; (b) The procurement and installation of approximately 3,300 h.p. of gas engine driven compressors including necessary controls and ancillary facilities; (c) The procurement and installation of facilities to treat the gas to remove condensable gasoline fractions by cooling it to a low temperature in contact with diethylene glycol to remove water vapors. (d) The procurement and installation of ancillary facilities at the compression and treatment center, including operating buildings and employee housing with electric, gas, water and communication systems; (e) The procurement and installation of 294 km of 10-3/4 inch transmission pipeline including coating, corrosion potential test stations, sectioning stations, scraper traps and measurement and pressure control stations;  -7- (f) The procurement and installation of sales laterals from the transmission line consisting of 2.9 km of 12-3/4 inch pipe to the Rhennouch electric generating station of STEC, 0.8 km of 4-1/2 inch pipe to the Industries Chimique Maghrebines plant near Gabes, and 3.7 km of 4-1/2 inch pipe to the brick plant at El Hamma. Laterals will be coated and equipped with corrosion potential test stations and gas pressure controls. 4.05 The location of the facilities is shown on the Map. C. Design and Engineering 4.06 STEG has engaged SOFREGAZ as its consultant for engineering and for the supervision of procurement and installation of facilities. The Bank has reviewed SOFREGAZ's design of the system and is satisfied that is tech- nically sound. SOFREGAZ has selected the location of facilities, and drawn up very complete and detailed specifications for the furnishing of pipe, the construction and installation of the compression and treatment plant and the pipelines including the gathering line, the transmission line and sales laterals. 4.07 Tests show the wet gas to contain 12% of hydrocarbons and water vapor which must be removed to permit transmission to market. The gathering system and compression and treatment plant have therefore been designed to gather and process 38,000 m3 per hour (32.2 NMcf per day) of wet gas. While the process and performance of the plant has been specified, the actual sizing of the equipment has been left to the firms bidding since each manufacturer produces plant of slightly different size. 4.08 An analysis of gas transport to available markets indicates an optimum transmission line size of 10-3/4 inch diameter (See Annex 1). This size will permit increased capacity at minimal cost if more gas is available an,d required. Delivery capacity is adequate and the specification c materials and construction procedures are in accordance with good eng leering practice and an acceptable standard of safety and are in conformity with the applicable national code. D. Construction Cost Estimates 4.09 The project is estimated to cost the equivalent of US$13.6 mil- lion (TD 7.16 million). The proposed loans of US$10.0 million would cover the estimated foreign exchange costs which are 73% of the total costs. The cost estimates for various major elements of the project are shown in the table below. Additional details are shown in Tables 2 and 3.  - 8 - TD (000's) US$ (000's) Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total % Procurement of Pipe - 1,378 1,378 - 2,625 2,625 19.2 Installation of Pipe 1,197 1,738 2,935 2,280 3,310 5,590 41.0 Procurement & Installation of Compression & Treatment 331 1,260 1,591 630 2,400 3,030 22.2 Buildings 262 - 262 500 - 500 3.7 Engineering - 204 204 - 388 388 2.8 Supervision 18 258 276 35 491 526 3.9 Subtotal 1,808 4,838 6,646 3,445 9,214 12,659 92.8 Contingencies 105 413 518 200 786 986 7.2 Total Project Cost 1,913 5,251 7,164 3,645 10,000 13,645 100.0 Percent 26.7 73.3 100.0 4.10 Of the above figures, the amount for pipe is a firm figure based on price quoted in response to requests to bid. Costs of remaining items, with the exception of contingencies, are those estimated by SOFREGAZ and were based on their recent experience in Algeria, where construction and operating conditions are similar. An amount of approximately 6% has been included for price escalation on local costs which is in line with local trends. A price escalation allowance of about 10% has been applied to foreign costs to re- flect the present trend in the contract construction cost index. These amounts should be adequate for the relatively short construction period proposed. Engineering investigation and planning has been done in great detail and material and construction quantities are known within very close limits; therefore, no allowance has been made for increases in cost due to an increase in quantity of materials or amount of construction. E. Procurement 4.11 All procurement for this project will be by international com- petitive bidding in accordance with the Bank's "Guidelines for Procurement", except for employee living quarters and an operating headquarters building at Gabes, which would not attract international competition. The total value of the contracts for such installations is not expected to exceed US$0.5 million equivalent or about 3.6% of the project cost. 4.12 Bids for furnishing pipe have been received and are being evaluated. Separate invitations to bid for installation of pipelines and procurement and installation of compression and treatment facilities were sent out on August 31, 1970 with closing date of November 25 for submission of both tenders so that the pipeline can be completed in time for the start-up of the Rhennouch power plant.  -9- F. Disbursement 4.13 Disbursement of the Bank and Kuwait Fund loans will be made on the basis of: (a) the CIF cost of imported goods required for the Project; (b) the foreign exchange component of the consultants contract; and (c) the foreign exchange cost of installation of the pipeline and related facilities. The amounts to be disbursed would be divided between the Bank and the Kuwait Fund in the proportion of 75% to 25%. Disbursements are expected to take place over a 2-1/2-year period from the first quarter 1971 to t,he third quarter 1973. A schedule of the undisbursed quarterly payments cf the proposed loan is shown in Table 4. Since this is a self-contained project, any surplus loan amounts should be cancelled. 4.14 The details of the items proposed to be financed are shown in para. 4.09 and include US$388,000 for engineering studies performed by SOFREGAZ during 1970 which it is recommended should be financed retroactively from the proposed loans. CG. Operation of the System 4.15 There is no available experienced gas operating talent in Tunisia and it will be necessary to train personnel specially selected from STEG for operation and maintenance of the facilities to be installed. An engineer will receive training in making operational efficiency studies at SOFREGAZ. T'wo design engineers, two mechanical foremen and two pipeline foremen wvill receive training at SONATRACH, the State gas company in Algeria, where pipelines are presently under construction and in operation; E ;plemen- tary training will be supplied by SOFREGAZ. An operating engineer anu six assistants will receive training on installations in service in Algeria and in France. Arrangements for this training have been concluded between the agencies concerned and training has already begun. 4.16 The gas system will be operated as a separate department of the STEG production division. An organogram of the department is shown as Annex 2. Major scheduled overhauls of the compression and treatment facilities will be performed by outside service groups provided by the builder. Certain other periodic maintenance work such as electric plant overhaul will be done by personnel of STEG. The pipeline operating and maintenance costs are shown on Table 5; they are considered adequate for the installation proposed.  - 10 - 5. ECONOMIC EVALUATION A. General 5.01 The proposed natural gas pipeline is to supply fuel to three users in the Gabes area: STEG's new electricity generating plants which will use 95% of the gas, the Industries Chimiques Maghrebines chemical plant which is presently under construction, and an existing brick plant at El Hamma. Further details are shown in Annex 3. 5.02 Since the primary object of the proposed pipeline is to supply gas to the new electricity generating station at Rhennouch, an economic evaluation has been made to determine whether: (i) STEG's investment program to expand generating capacity is reasonable; and (ii) the investment in the proposed pipeline ensures that fuel to the generating station is supplied at least cost. B. Justification of the STEG Investment Program 5.03 The electricity generating capacity in Tunisia increased from 133 MW in 1961 to 258 MW in 1969 due mainly to the installation of generators at La Goulette by STEG. Consumption has kept pace with capacity and from 1961 to 1969 increased from 287 GWH to 640 GWH. This increase in electricity consumption reflects the pattern of economic growth and industrialization, mostly related to the growth of extractive and manufacturing industries in the central and southern areas of the country. Despite the growth in these areas, the northern part of Tunisia, including the area around Tunis, Nebeul, Bizerte and Jendouba, continue to be the major area of electricity consump- tion. 5.04 STEG expects that Tunisia's electricity consumption will increase from 640 GWH in 1969 to between 1,040-1,116 GW11 by 1975. The projected average annual rate of growth is about 9% for the period through 1975, as compared to 10.4% realized during 1961-1969. The projected electricity consumption by sector up to 1975 indicates the continuing importance of extractive and manufacturing industries. A detailed analysis of past national electricity generating capacity, consumption by area and sector, and a forecast of electricity consumption by sector for the period of 1970- 75, are given in Annex 4. 5.05 These projections are based on the analysis of past trends and the results of a market survey of the future requirements of the major industrial consumers, including consumers operating captive generating plants. The estimates are considered reasonable.  - 11 - 5.06 In order to serve increasing electricity demand in the country, SIEG proposes to increase its effective capacity from 187 MW in 1970 to 303 MW in 1975 and to 531 MW by 1985. Most of the new generating capacity will be installed at Rhennouch (see Annex 4). STEG is now constructing a 151 MW gas turbine at Menzel Bourguiba to meet the peak demand in 1971, and two 30 MW thermal generators at Rhennouch to meet the demand from 1972 on- waLrds. It is the Rhennouch station which will use natural gas as a fuel. Since there is insufficient water for cooling purposes it would not be possible to install the new station near the oil field. Without these stations, Tunisia will have unsatisfied electricity demand which would hamper the normal pattern of economic growth. In 1970, the present capacity, net of reserve requirements, barely satisfies peak day demand and by 19171 there would be a capacity deficit. The deficit in terms of capacity is shown below: Electricity Demand and Supply, 1969-1972 (MW) 1969 /1 1970 1971 1972 Present capacity /2 187 187 187 187 Capacity demanded /3 176 185 194 211 +11 + 2 - 7 -24 Planned additional capacity --- --- 15 60 +11 + 2 + 8 +36 /1 Based on actual figures. /2 Present capacity stands for effective capacity. /3 Capacity demanded stands for maximum daily requirements plus reserve. Given the present load factor as well as expected demand in the neal future, the new installations are justified. On the basis of existino tariff schedules and estimated operating costs, the investment in the Rhen- nouch plant would yield a rate of return of over 25%. 5.07 The location of the new generating station at Rhennouch decreases the risk of paralysis of the power sector in case of line breaks or a major disruption of service at La Goulette generating station. C. The Proposed Pipeline Project 5.08 To establish the most economic means of supplying fuels for the new electric generators at Rlennouch and other industries in the area, two aLlternatives were considered: (i) the use of natural gas and (ii) the use c,f fuel oil. The major factors involved in the analysis are the demand for fuels, the supply capacity of natural gas, comparative costs of the two fuels, and investment costs required for the two alternatives.  - 12 - 5.09 The relevant demand for fuels consists of fuel requlrement for the electric generating stations at Rhennouch, for the ICM chemical plant, and for the El Hamma brick plant, the most important source of demand being fuels for generation stations. Annual demand for fuel for the chemical plant will reach 12 million m3 of gas by 1978; the brlck plant will require 5 million m3 per year. Total annual demand will increase from 120 million m3 in 1973 to 288 million m3 in 1978, and continue to rise to 700 million m3 by 1985 (see Annex 4). 5.10 Gas will be supplied to the Project from El Borma oil field (see para 207). The field is located in the Sahara astride the Tunisia-Algeria border, with the majority of the gas on the Tunisian side. The basic reserve and reservoir production study of the field was prepared by the reservoir engineering department of ACIP. The mission examined the reports produced by AGIP and is satisfied both with the methodology and number of cores, logs and fluid samples obtained. The approach used was conserva- tive and the forecast of gas availability based on the data is reasonable. Further details regarding reserves are given in Annex 5. Since the field is an oil field, a production program was designed to maximize oil production. Gas which is in solution with the oil is produced along with the oil and separated at the surface. The rate of gas production is therefore governed by the rate of oil production and the forecast of oil production provided the basis of the forecast of gas production. The forecast of gas availability is given in Table 6. 5.11 The annual supply of gas will decline continuously from 675 mil- lion m3 in 1972. By 1986 the field will have reached its economic limit of production as an oil field. This, in turn, defines the life of the project. However, as pointed out in Annex 5, it might be possible to continue gas operations beyond this date. Consequently, until 1978 consumption of natural gas is limited by demand for fuels; beyond 1978, by the supply of gas. 5.12 A comparative cost analysis of fuel oil and natural gas is shown below: Cost Structure of Different Fuels (per metric ton heat equivalent of fuel oil) Fuel Oil US Natural Gas US$ CIF at Gabes 12.90 Wellhead Cost 0 Storage and Handling Pipeline Operating Costs 0.38 Cost 1.15 Pipeline Depreciation 5.45 13.28 6.60 The comparative cost figures indicate that the cost of gas is about one-half the cost of fuel oil. This difference in fuel costs is the source of economic benefits in the form of cost savings in the fuel use.  - 13 - 5.13 The economic cost of the pipeline project is estimated at TD 7.2 mtillion or US$13.6 million equivalent, which is equal to the estimated in- vestment cost (see para 4.09) since no taxes are payable on import of materials or equipment. The foreign exchange costs would amount to US$10.0 vmillion equivalent or 73% of the total cost (see para. 4.09). Although STEG's generating plants at Rhennouch will rely almost entirely on natural gas as fuel until 1979, the declining supply of natural gas, combined with the growing needs for fuel for electricity, will necessitate a substan- tial use of fuel oil from 1981 onward. The use of fuel oil will require investments for storage and pumping facilities which would occur much earlier without the proposed pipeline project. 5.14 On the most conservative basis the difference in the cost and benefit streams of the proposed pipeline and the next best alternative, the use of fuel oil, is reduced to zero at a discount rate of 10.6% (see Annex 6). Since this rate is in excess of the opportunity cost of capital in Tunisia, the proposed project is the least cost solution for the supply of fuel to the electric power plant which is estimated to have a rate of return well in excess of 25%. 5.15 The estimated discount rate is sensitive to changes in the costs of fuel oil, which are rising. For example, an increase of 10% in the cost of fuel oil will raise the rate by 2%. Should gas continue to be available irom the field for a further three years (see para. 5.11), then the estimated rate would be 12%. 5.16 The estimated discount rate of 10.6% is conservative, both with respect to fuel costs and availability of gas, and is considered to be a minimum. The most probable rate is 12%.  - 14 - 6. FINANCES A. Introduction 6.01 STEG is a public company wholly owned by the Government, but has no issued share capital. The equivalent to equity is the excess of assets over liabilities. As of December 31, 1969 this balance stood at TD 37.9 million. 6.02 Prior to 1969, STEG did not maintain an adequate accounting system and this is one of the many problems the present management has had to face (paras. 3.03 and 3.04). In 1969 STEG retained Peat, Marwick, Mitchell and Company as auditors and also made arrangements for a senior accountant from Electricite de France to be seconded to them. The auditors first report is dated July 15, 1970 (see para. 6.09). Their report includes a balance sheet as of December 31, 1969, and details of the changes which they gave effect to in the balance sheet. The balance sheet and the accompanying statement of profit and loss were used as the starting point for this report. The changes made with respect to earlier accounts were of such magnitude that prior years' financial data were of little use. Further changes may occur in the 1970 accounts as a result of the continuing audit, since the physical count and valuation of the assets are not yet complete. B. Revenues and Expenses 6.03 The Profit and Loss Account projections, which are shown in Table 7 and summarized below, show an improvement in operating surplus over the period 1970-80. TD millions 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1980 Revenue 11.185 11.556 12.315 13.205 14.073 21.171 Expenses 6.386 5.578 6.472 6.855 6.608 10.373 Operating Surplus 4.799 5.978 5.843 6.350 7.465 10.798 Depreciation 3.717 3.836 4.140 4.738 4.959 6.923 Interest .913 1.028 1.175 1.275 1.623 1.738 Net Profit .169 1.114 0.528 0.337 0.883 2.137 Rate of Return 2.0 3.9 2.9 2.4 3.5 4.5 In the early years, however, this is offset by the increasing cost of depreciation and interest and it is only in the years from 1973 onwards that net profit increases to a reasonable level. Since demand for elec- tricity is not in doubt, and given the determination of the management to control operating expenses, the projections are realistic. Assumptions used in the projections are shown in Annex 7.  - 15 - 6.04 No allowance has been made for changes or increases in tariffs, which might improve income still further, since any change must await the outcome of the tariff study (see para. 3.06). 6.05 Provision for depreciation is calculated on the straight line basis. The proposed pipeline is charged to operations over its estimated useful life of 15 years. Most of the remainder of the fixed assets are depreciated at the rate of 5% per year. The provision for depreciation is higher than that practiced in most electricity companies. As the company follows the policy of commencing the provision for depreciation in the year of acquisition, the net profits after depreciation tend to fall in the years of heavy purchases of capital assets. 6.06 The return on average net fixed assets, which is shown in Table 9, rises from 2.0% in 1969 to 4.5% in 1980. STEC follows the policy of show- ing newly acquired capital assets as working assets in the year of acquisi- tion. This, combined with the depreciation policy mentioned in para. 6.05 has the effect of depressing the return. The notional return on fixed assets in use (Table 9) based on normal depreciation rates as used by power companies averages over 7.5% during the period. A more easily measured ratio is the operating surplus/net fixed assets ratio which is not signifi- cantly affected by changes in depreciation policies. This ratio (Table 9) in the period after construction of the power plant and pipeline improves from 10.3% to 12.7% by 1980. STEG has agreed to control expenses and tariffs so that the ratio from 1973 onwards does not fall below 10%. 6.07 STEG is not subject to income taxes. 6.08 The operating expenses of the proposed pipeline are included in STEG's projected statement of profit and loss under a separate caption. Tlhese operating expenses do not include the provision for depreciation of tlhe pipeline which is included in the overall depreciation provision for the company or the cost of financing its construction. The detailed pro- jection of all costs for the pipeline are set out in Table 6. STEG hlaS agreed to maintain separate departmental accounts for the pipeline project. C. Cash Flow 6.09 The precarious financial balance of STEG as projected at the time of appraisal is illustrated by the projected cash flow, details of which are shown in Table 10. In two years, 1971 and 1972, it resulted in a nega- tive (overdraft) position of TD 863,000 and TD 345,000, respectively. There were various ways of dealing with this--the ideal method being the injection of equity by the Government. The question was discussed during negotiations and the Government agreed to two measures which together are acceptable to the Bank. They are: (a) Exemption from import duties and taxes on goods imported for the construction of the pipeline and the Rhennouch power station, under the provisions of the law encouraging investment in the southern region.  - 16 - (b) The procurement of overdraft facilities for STEG from local banks of not less than one million dinars. 6.10 These measures, combined with an increase in customers contribu- tion to the cost of installation of branch lines, which has now been recal- culated, adequately safeguard STEG's liquidity position. The effect of exemption from duties and the increase in customers contribution is to in- ject a TD's 1,700,000, TD's, 900,000 in 1971 and TD's 800,000 in 1972, thus eliminating the negative cash position in both years. The effect of this injection of further funds is shown at the bottom of Table 10. The Govern- ment has further agreed to make available such funds as may be necessary to ensure that STEG has at all times adequate cash balances. D. Balance Sheets 6.11 The balance sheet drawn up by the auditors at December 31, 1969 (see para. 6.02) together with the projections through 1980 are shown in Table 8 and summarized below: TD millions 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1980 Current Assets 11.7 9.4 8.3 9.5 11.0 15.2 Net Fixed Assets 54.8 54.8 60.6 71.5 71.4 84.4 Long Term Inventory 5.0 7.6 11.0 4.4 4.7 7.3 Other Assets 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Total 72.9 73.1 81.2 86.7 88.4 108.2 Current Liabilities 9.5 5.9 5.8 6.7 6.9 8.5 Other Liabilities 5.0 5.8 7.0 8.2 9.1 16.1 Long-term Debt 20.5 22.4 28.8 31.9 31.6 29.7 Equity 37.9 39.0 39.6 39.9 40,8 53.9 Total 72.9 73.1 81.2 86.7 88.4 108.2 6.12 Over the period, the ratio of current assets to current liabilities improves indicating the efficacy of the measures agreed upon during negoti- ations (see para. 6.09). The cost of fixed assets rises from TD 75 million in 1969 to TD 165 million in 1980. The book value of these assets increases during the same period from TD 55 million to TD 85 million, an increase of TD 30 million. During the same period the long-term debt rises by only 9 million.  - 17 - 6.13 The debt equity ratio which is 35:65 in 1969 rises to 44:56 in 1972, as a result of loans for construction of the generating station at Rhennouch and the pipeline. By 1980 it has fallen to 36:64 as a result of increase in retained earnings. Details of the ratios are shown in Table 9. STEG has agreed not to incur debt which would raise the debt equity ratio above 45:55 without permission of the Bank and Kuwait Fund. Of the total cost of fixed assets amounting to TD 110 million, when the pipeline project is completed, less than 7% will have been provided by the proposed Bank and Kuwait Fund loan. E. Financing the Project 6.14 As mentioned in para 4.02, the project is estimated to cost TI) 7.16 million (US$13.65 million). The foreign exchange component of TI) 5.25 million (US$10 million equivalent) is proposed to be financed by loans from the Bank and the Kuwait Fund. The local currency component of TD 1.91 million (US$3.65 million) will come from STEG's internally generated ftnds as shown below: TD (Thousands) 1971 1972 1973 Total Operating Surplus 5,843 6,350 7,465 19,658 Leass Debt Service 2,721 2,930 4,096 9,747 3,122 3,420 3,369 9,911 Working capital decrease (increase) 1,077 (391) (1,267) 1,119 Loans - Pipeline 3,102 1,765 383 5,250 - Other 4,845 2,960 1,804 _9 39 12,146 7,754 4,289 25,889 Capital Investment - Pipeline 4,365 2,415 383 7,163 - Other 7,781 5,339 3,906 182726 12,146 7_754 4,289 25,889 6.15 STEG has agreed to bear any cost overruns and the Government has aigreed that it will make available to STEG any funds required should STEG not have sufficient funds for this purpose.  - 18 - 7. RECOMMENDATIONS 7.01 During negotiations agreement was reached on the following prin- cipal points: (a) STEG will implement policies to improve utilization of mAnpOwer (Paragraph 3.04) (b) STEG will collect and record data for management control (Paragraph 3.05) (c) STEG will maintain a ratio of operating surplus to net fixed assets of not less than 10% (Paragraph 6.06) and a debt equity. ratio of not more than 45:55 (Paragraph 6.13) (d) The Government will exempt STEG from import duties and taxes on goods imported for the pipeline and power station (Para- graph 6.09) (e) The Government will provide STEG with overdraft facilities. 7.02 Contracts satisfactory to the Bank, ceding gas from STEG to the Government and from the Government to STEG, have been entered into (Para- graph 3.07). 7.03 A decree satisfactory to the Bank enabling STEG to transmit natural gas has been published. (Paragraph 3.08). 7.04 It is recommended that the costs of engineering studies amounting to approximately US$0.388 million be financed retroactively from the pro- posed loans. 7.05 The proposed project constitutes a suitable basis for a Bank loan of US$7.5 million for a term of 16 years including a grace period of three years.  ANNEX 1 TUNISIA APPRAISAL OF SOCIETE TUNISIENNE DE L'ELECTRICITE ET DU GAZ EL BORMA-GABES GAS PIPELINE PROJECT Considerations Determining Line Diameter 1. A number of feasibility studies of possible gas markets and systems to serve them were investigated in arriving at the selection of the proposed project. The gas demand projections could be fairly well matched by the capacity of either 8-5/8 inch or 10-3/4 inch pipelines. The 8-5/8 inch svstem would operate at its maximum allowable pressure of 1,260 ps:L and hence its maximum capacity from 1976 through 1980. However, during 1978 and 1979 gas demand and availability would exceed the capacity of an 8-5/8 inch pipeline. A 10-3/4 inch line operating at a pressure of 878 psi would transport the available gas during 1978 and 1979. While the capital cost of the 10-3/4 inch line would be greater than the 8-5/8 inch line, the higher operating pressure of the 8-5/8 inch line would require more compressor horsepower than the 10-3/4 inch line with attendant higher operating cost. The benefits derived by transmitting more gas which will replace fuel oil together with the lower operating costs of the 10-3/4 inch line more than offset the slightly higher capital cost of this solution compared with the 8-5/8 inch line and result in a higher rate of return for the 10-3/4 inch line. Furthermore the 10-3/4 inch line gives flexibility if greater quantities of gas than foreseen become available.   S.T.E.G.TU SI D. P.TU I A APPRAISAL OF SOCIETE TUNISIENNE DE '' ELECTRICITE 'T DU GAZ EL BORMA-GABES GAS PIPELINE ORGANOGRAM OF OPERATING GROUP RESPONSIBLE TO CHIEF OF THE DIVISION OF PRODUCTION I CHIEF ENGINEER GAS PIPELINE TREATING PLANT LINE I FOREMAN 1 FOREMAN OR 10 OPERATORS OVERSEER 2 MECHANICS 1 WELDER 1 TYPIST 2 ELECTRICIANS 1 MECHANIC 2 TECHNICIANS 2 MANUAL LABORERS ELECTRICIAN 1 MANUAL LABORER 2 MANUAL LABORERS 1 GUARD 1 CHAUFFEUR 1 CHAUFFEUR LOCATION EL BORMA MOBILE ATTACHED GABES TO GABES D z m iBRD-5473 N)   ANNEX 3 TUNISLA APPRAISAL OF SOCIETE TUNISIENNE DE L'ELECTRICITE ET DU GAZ EL BORMA-GABES GAS PIPETINE PROJECT Demand for Natural Gas A. Introduction 1. Three plants in the Gabes area will consume natural gas from the proposed pineline: i) STEC ii) Industries Chimiques Maghrehines iii) Briqueterie d'El Hamma The total natural gas consumption of these plants is shown on Page 4. B. STEG 2. STEG has designed its generating facilities at Rhennouch with dual burners to use either natural gas or fuel oil as a source of energy. Natural gas will be used to the extent of demand for fuel for electricity production, limited by the supply of gas from El Borma. Fuel oil will supply remaining energy requirements. 3. The demand for fuel varies directly with the demand for elec- tricity which shows marked hourly, daily, and seasonal fluctuation. To ensure reasonably stable demand for gas, STEG will provide its Rhennouch generating facilities with a high base load. From 1973 to 1977, the Rhennouch plants will operate at apnroximately an 80% load factor entirely on natural gas. During off peak hours of demand, Rhennouch will supply a large part of STEG's tqtal load. Although Rhennouch will continue to operate at a high load factor beyond 1977, natural gas will supply a steadily diminishing portion of total fuel requirements.  ANNEX 3 Page 2 Structure of Fuel Supply - STEG Total GIAi GWI Produced by % Produced by Produced by Natural Gas at Natural Gas STFG Rhennouch /1 1971 725 0 0 1972 790 0 0 1973 855 392 46 1974 935 392 42 1975 1,010 392 39 1976 1,090 784 72 1977 1,180 784 66 1978 1,275 1,012 79 1979 1,375 885 64 1980 1,485 754 51 1981 1,600 653 41 1982 1,720 575 33 1983 1,850 500 27 1984 1,990 385 19 1985 2,140 370 17 /1 Based on annual natural gas requirements for 56MW at 100% load X 131.4 x 106m3 4. STEG consumption of natural gas will begin at the end of 1972, with consumption of 5 x 106m3 for the year. Consumption will peak in 1978 at 271 x 106m3 of gas and because of declining gas reserves, will continue to fall beyond 1978. Over the life of the project, STEG will account for 90% of total gas throughput of the pipeline.  ANNEX 3 Page 3 C. Industries Chimigues Maghrebines (ICM) 5. ICM, a factory now being built at Gabes for the manufacture of phosphoric acid, and scheduled to be completed in 1971, will also consume natural gas as a fuel. The plant process involves the production of sulphuric acid from sulphur and, consequently, the action of sulphuric acid on phosphates to produce phosphoric acid. The energy released by the combustion of sulphur will be insufficient to meet the needs of the plant and increasing quantities of outside fuels will be required as production increases there. 6. The fuel requirements of ICM have been converted to natural gas quantities and the annual consumption will amount to 5 x 106m3 of natural gas in 1972, rising to 10 x 106m3 in 1973, 11 x 106m3 in 1976, anad reaching a level of 12 x 106m3 per year by 1978. 1). Brigueterie d'El Hamma 7. This brick plant is situated 30 kilometers west of Gabes and would be served by the proposed pipeline on its route to Gabes. The capacity of the plant at the end of 1969 was 80,000 tons per year. The natural gas3requirements of the plant have been conservatively estimated at 5 x 106m per year, beginning in 1973.   ANNEX 3 TUNISIA Pog 4 APPRAISAL OF SOCIETE TUNISIENNE DE L' ELECTRICITE ET DU GAZ EL BORMA-GABES GAS PIPELINE ESTIMATED GAS PRODUCTION CAPACITY SCHEDULE OF INSTALLED GENERATION CAPACITY AND GAS SALES 700 600 OUU w DRY GAS PRODUCTION CAPACITY 500 0 30 -------------? -J~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1 20 200 ,i ~~~~~~~~~GAS. SALES . ,_ ,_ _ ,_ l'- - " - -, - - ''"- "-',' - - - -'-"','_ 100 - _ ~1.- -- I . I t I I t _ .; 't . 200 2 73I74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86t 197 7 74 7 5 76 7 7 78 9 0 aI 2 3 4 ii8 GAS SALES~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1S D57 R   ANNEX 4 TUNISIA APPRAISAL OF SOCIETE TUNISIENNE DE L'ELECTRICITE ET DU GAZ EL BORMA-GABES GAS PIPELINE PROJECT Demand and Supply of Electricity A. 1961-1969 1. The consumption of electricity in Tunisia rose from 287 GWH in 1961 to 640 GWI in 1969, an average annual growth rate at 10.4%. STEG supplied 83% of total consumption in 1969 with captive generating plants supplying the remainder. The past consumption of electricity in T'unisia is described in Table on Page 4. 2. In 1969, the manufacturing industry accounted for 41% of STEG's sales of electricity and was its most important consumer sector. The domestic sector was next in importance with 17% of sales, followed by the etxtractive industry with 14%. Other important sectors, in declining order of importance, were services, motor power, public lighting, and transpor- tation and communication. The extractive, manufacturing and services industries were the fastest growing consumers of electricity. These changes are indicated in the table below: The Structure of Electricity Consumption by Sector, 1962-1969 (Annual Average in GWH and Percentage) Medium Tension Manufacturing Extractive Sub- Low Industries Industries Services Others total Tension Total 1962-64 85.4 24.8 17.2 23.2 150.6 111.4 262.0 (32.7) (9.5) (6.6) (8.8) (57.5) (42.5) (100.0) 1967-69 177.1 71.1 38.5 38.6 325.3 149.4 474.7 (37.3) (15.0) (8.1) (8.1) (68.5) (31.5) (100.0) 1969 217.7 74.0 45.0 44.6 381.3 157.7 539.0 (40.8) (13.9) (8.4) (8.3) (70.7) (29.3) (100.0) 3. Since 1961, there has been some change in the regional struc- ture of STEG's sales of electricity (see Table below). The northern part of Tunisia, including the areas around Tunis, Nabeur, Bizerte and Jendouba continues to consume the major part of STEG's output but its percent of total sales fell from 86.3% in 1961 to 68.8% in 1969. The central part of Tunisia now accounts for 17.2% of STEG's sales, compared  ANNEX 4 Page 2 to 5.7% in 1961 and the southern area now comprises 14.0% versus 8.0% in 1961. The south and central areas of the country accounted for the fastest growth in sales of electricity over the past decade. Much of this growth can be attributed to the expanding energy requirements of Tunisia's extractive industries which are concentrated in the southern part of the country and which now form the third largest consumer sector for electricity. STEG Sales From Distribution Areas (GWH) % of Total Annual STEG Production 1961 1969 Rate of Growth 1961 1969 North 207.6 366.7 7.3% 86.3 68.8 Central 13.6 91.9 27.0% 5.7 17.2 South 19.2 74.4 18.4% 8.0 14.0 Total 240.4 533.0 10.5% 100.0 100.0 4. The installed electric generating capacity increased from 133 MW in 1961 to 258 MW in 1969 due mainly to the installation of new thermal stations at La Goulette totaling 110 MW. STEG capacity comprises 83% of the total capacity; captive plants accounts for the remainder (see Table on Page 5). Gross production of electricity by STEG grew from 282.3 GWH in 1961 to 624.4 GWH in 1969. Transmission losses, as a percent of gross production, were 14.8% in 1961 and 14.7% in 1969. B. 1970-1975 5. STEG has used two approaches to estimate the future national demand for electricity. In the first method, it used 1958-1968 historical consumption data to obtain arithmetic parameters for a regression model. This model was then used to estimate yearly median and upper and lower range limits for the future Tunisian demand for electricity. Four different calculations were made, based on different assumptions regarding consumption in the base year, 1969, which was adversely affected by floods in the latter part of the year. The second method involved surveys of the major consumers of electricity within each sector of activity. Based on these survey results and on historical data, forecasted demand schedules were derived for each consumer sector. The results obtained from the two methods were compared, and probable consumption ranges were estimated as shown below:  ANNEX 4 Page 3 Future Consumption of Electricity (GWH) 1970 690-710 1971 750-780 1972 830-870 1973 900-950 1974 960-1020 1975 1040-1110 These consumption ranges were then changed to gross production figures by using a transmission loss factor of 12 to 14%. STEG production estimates were calculated by deducting from the aggregate Tunisian production figures the expected production of captive plants, estimates o:E which were obtained in surveys of those plants. 6. Depending on the forecasting method used, STEG estimates that Tunisian consumption of electricity in 1975 will range from 1040 GWR to 1110 GWH, indicating an average annual growth from 1969 of 8.4% to 9.6%. During this period, the extractive industry, and the pumping and tourism sectors should increase their respective proportions of total consumption. The manufacturing industry is expected to maintain its relative position while domestic and public usage of electricity will grow at a rate less than the overall average. The table on Page 6 shows a forecasted break- down of consumption by sector. The share of national consumption of electricity supplied by captive generating plants should decrease slightly during the period 1969 to 1975 (16.7% in 1969, 16.0% in 1975). 7. STEG has assumed the lower anticipated annual rate of growth in national electricity consumption 8.4%, to project its own production to 1975. If the average growth rate does reach 9.6%, however, STEG will have sufficient generating capacity above reserve requirements to provide the higher peak day demands. Beyond 1975, STEG has projected a slow^- rate of growth in production reaching an annual growth rate of 7.5% by 1985. STEG production in 1985 should reach 2140 GWH, indicating an annual growth rate from 1969 of 8.0%. STEG's maximum day demand of electricity will reach 194 MW in 1975 and 382 MW in 1985. STEG's equipment program will provide a security reserve over these peak demands ranging from a low of 21.1% to a high of 31.9% during the period 1970 to 1985 and averaging 26' over the whole period. The Table on Page 7 indicates STEG's forecasted electricity demand and its capital investment program.   TUNISIA APFRAISAL OF THE SOCIETE TUNISIENNE DE L'ELECTRICITE ET DU GAZ EL BORMA - GABES GAS PIPELINE PROJECT Consumption of Electricity by Sector 1961 - 1969 (GwH) 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Tunisian Consumption 287.0 303.9 319.0 391.6 431.1 507.1 556.2 602.3 640.3 of which: Provided by Captive Generating Plants Lc.6 57.5 50.0 112 2 124.8 129.4 135.4 132.: 107.0 Provided by STEG: Agriculture, forestry, n.a. 4.8 4.1 4.2 4.6 5.L 6.1 5.6 n.a. hunting, fishing Extractive industries nfa. 24.3 24.4 25.-Q 32.3 53.? 65.t 73.L n.a. 4anufacturing industries n.a. 80.u 83.3 9_.u 104.5 133.1 147.7 166.0 n.a. Construction and n.a. .7 .4 .7 1.2 1.6 3.1 3.8 n.a. public works Electricity, gas, water n.a. 3.4 3.4 4.7 5.6 8.9 9.2 10.6 n.a. and sanitary services Commerce, banking, n.a. 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 i.6 12.9 n.a. insurance, real estate Transportation, warehousing n.a. 12,4 12.7 12.9 12.1 15.7 16.5 18.5 n.a. and communication Services n.a. 15.3 17.0 19,0 22.2 27.0 31.2 39.3 n.a. Domestic use n.a. 64,2 69.0 72.9 74.9 80.7 82.1 88.0 n.a. Motor Pawer n.a. 24.0 25.3 26.0 26.8 31.5 35.9 40.0 nZa, Public Lighting n.a. 16.3 18.2 18.3 18.8 18.5 21.6 23.0 n.a. X7 Total by STEG 240.4 246.4 259.0 278.8 306.3 377.7 420.8 470,2 533.3 287.0 303.9 319.0 391.6 431.1 507.1 556.2 602.3 640.3   TUNLTS Iti APPRAISAL TO' T-E SOCIETE -UtIEMISTE DF L'ELECTRICITE ET DUJ "AZ EL POOA - GA3ES GAS PIIFELM PaOJECT Electric Generating Capacity,L/ 1961 - 1969 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 .a (oulette I 70.3 70.3 70.3 58.0 58.o 58.C 58.0 58.0 58.0 ,a iule;Le II 5-- -- -- 55.0 55. 55.0 110.0 110.0 i - Total 70.3 70.3 7C.3 58.0 113.0 113.0 113.0 168.o 168.0 trdro:e lec tQric 'osa6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 h.6 4.6 Nbe'ier 13.0 i3,0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 Fernana 8.3 10.0 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 Sub - Total 26.4 27,5 27.9 27.9 27 ?9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 -'ermal Diesel 17.7 18.0 18.9 20.3 21.9 23.1 19.8 19.0 19.0 Total STEG 114 4 115.9 117.1 106.2 162.8 164,0 160.7 214.9 214.9 Captive Plants 19o0 20.3 28,3 35.1 38.7 39.7 42.8 42.8 42.8 Grand Total 133.4 136,2 14504 141.3 201.5 203.7 203,5 257.7 257.7 Stands for nominal capacity Source:  TABLE 'M ANNEX l P;tp,e 6 I'UNIOI A, APPRAISAL OF i'T C 3UCThTE IU'NLSIENNE DE L'ELECTRICITE ET DU TA2 EL B0B!MA--.1A1BWS GAS PIPELINE PROJECT National Cor_LuxnitAon of Electricity by Sector ( mWl-) 1970 1971 1972 132 1974 1975 High Tension: Extractive IndusL' rie., 79 87 96 125 136 136 Steel Industry 214 29 35 41 147 54 Chemical Industry 10 13 15 18 21 25 Construction Materia:ls Industry 76 80 83 87 90 94 Paper &'t Publishing 314 38 43 146 50 55 Textile Industry 25 27 29 31 32 35 Food Industry 35 141 143 145 148 52 Various Industries 26 29 32 35 39 414 Pumping 25 31 37 44 50 55 Tourism 19 2.5 33 38 147 53 Other 6_ 6 71 76 81 87 TO AL 1 13 465 517 586 641 690 Low Tension: 167 177 188 199 210 222 TOTAL STECT 580 642 705 785 851 912 Total Corisuimptioiof Japtive 1 ianL.s 118 128 170 176 178 180 National ConsumpLioli 698 770 870 296 1 .029 1L220  TUNISIA APPiAAISAL OF THE SOCIETE TUNISIENN, DE L'ELECTRICITE ET DU GAZ EL BORMA - GABES GAS PIPELINE FlOJECT STEG's Effective Capacity and Projected Demand, 1970 -1985 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 MAximum Day Demand 133 142 155 164 179 194 205 222 240 254 275 296 312 336 361 382 Reserve Requirement 52 52 56 56 56 84 84 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 Total 185 194 211 220 235 278 289 334 352 366 387 408 424 448 473 494 Oaoazii,v Available - 0ouie . te XI a-3 104 104 104 104 104 104 104 104 104 104 104 104 104 104 104 104 -Goulette I 53 50 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 - Hydrauliaue 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 -Diesel 13 13 8 8 8 8 8 -Turoine a Gaz 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 - Rhennouch A 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 - Rhennouch B 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 - Goulette , TT 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 - Rhennouch C 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 - Whennouch D 56 56 56 56 56 - Rhennouch E 56 56 56 - Rhennouch F 56 Total 187 202 247 247 247 303 303 351 351 407 407 419 419 475 475 531   ANNEX 5 TJNISIA SOCIETE TUNISIENNE L'ELECTRICITE ET DU GAZ Gas Reserves Gas will be supplied to the project from the El Borma oil field. The field is located in the Sahara astride the Tunisia-Algeria border. The majority of the gas will come from horizons which do not extend into Algeria. The field was discovered in 1964, with first pro- duction in 1966 on completion of an oil pipeline to Skhirra on the Gulf of Gabes. At that time there were about 18 producing wells in the field. Drilling continued the development of the field with full development being attained with 40 producing wells completed in mid-1970. In total 44 wells have been drilled, four of which are not suitable for production. The initial report on oil and gas reserves and deliverability was dated 12 March 1968 at which time there were 28 completed wells in the field. As of the end of 1969 there were 40 producing wells and 4 non-producing. The additional wells drilled between March 1968 and the end of 1969 along with some production experience provided better data on the nature of the reservoirs and the extent of the field and the study was revised by the ACIP reservoir engineering group in Milan. This revised study of oil and gas reserves and production has been used as the basis for the projections of gas availability which were provided to STEG. 2. The mechanics of production of a porous reservoir containing water, oil and gas are very complex and it is essential that a large eamount of detailed reservoir rock and fluid data be analyzed as a basis for predictions of reserves and production. Predictions should be inter- preted with caution and conservatism. In the present instance, the production forecast was based on very complete data, the number of cores, logs and fluid samples obtained being greater than usually taken. The analysis of the data and forecast of production thus provided have been rade by competent reservoir engineers by methods customarily used by the industry. 3. The reservoir rock and fluid characteristics obtained from samples were used to compute reserves in place and producible and the productivity of wells from each of six producing zones present in the reservoir. The zones are lettered in descending order A, B, C, D, E and IF, and vary in their areal extent. The A zone is the uppermost. The A zone is the only one containing a gas cap. Gas cap production is not included as part of the available gas since it will only be produced at the end of the economic life of the field (after 1986). The data obtained from drilling and production between March 1968 and the last quarter of 1969 were used to revise the March 1968 estimates. The reservoir data and performance forecasts were made by the same procedures as previously.  ANNEX 5 Page 2 4. Initially it was assumed that there was an effective water drive as the producing mechanism; however, production data now shows this is not the case. Original produced Gas/Oil ratio was 182 to 200 Nm3 of gas/m3 oil. (1024 to 1125 cubic ft per barrel of oil). This has been increasing steadily and is presently above 250 Nm3 gas/r3. This indicates a drop in reservoir pressure due to the oil production rate from the reservoir being greater than the water encroachment rate into the edges of the reservoir. The drop in pressure causes release of gas from the oil. Oil production by dissolved gas drive is not as effective as by water drive hence total oil recovery would be less than forecast. Maintenance of a G/O ratio of 200 can be accomplished by injecting extraneously produced water at the outer edges of the oil zones. SITEP is about to make studies of water injection schemes. An ample supply of suitable water is reported to be available at a depth of 800 meters which eliminates the major technical obstacle to the scheme, and it is then a question of the economics of water injection costs versus value of extra oil produced. The quantity of gas produced will be greater if water is not injected; however, there is more gas available than can be used whether or not water is injected during the first half of the operat- ing life of the gas pipeline. If water is not injected, there will be some increase in pipeline throughput during the latter half of the operat- ing life of the line and the economic viability of the line will be improved in a small degree over that forecast. It is generally profitable to inject water into oil reservoirs and it is quite likely that it will be done at El Borma. The production schedule used as a basis for the present feasibility study assumes a water drive. 5. The production schedule also assumes the abrupt cessation of oil and gas from the oil zones at the end of 1986. This is somewhat unrealistic. The field will be at the stripper stage thereafter and uneconomic purely as a large scale oil operation. STEG could continue the oil operation while producing gas from the gas cap in the A zone. It could be conservatively estimated that gas cap production plus oil associated gas production would amount to 250 x 106m3 in 1987, 200 x 106m3 in 1988 and 150 x 106m3 in 1989. 6. The dry (treated) pipeline gas will be free of sulfur with the chemical composition shown below.  ANNEX 5 Page 3 Component Volume Percent Before After Name Formula Treatment Treatment Nitrogen N2 1.76 1.97 Carbon Dioxide Co2 0.24 0.21 Methane Ci4 73.94 79.71 Ethane C2H6 14.00 12.73 Propane C3if3 6.73 4.33 Iso-Butane lC 4H1 0.60 0.26 Normal-Butane nC I411 1.77 0.66 Iso-Pentane S L2 0.28 0.06 Normal--Pentane nC512 0.06 Hexane C6H14 0.21 0.01 Heptane plus C7H16 0.10 0.00 100.00 100.00 Specific Gravity (Air = 1.000) 0.749 0.680 Calorific Value after Treatment: Higher Lower Millithermies per cubic meter 10,500 9,500 Btu per cubic foot 1,180 1,067   ANNEX 6 TUNISIA APPRAISAL OF SOCIETE TUNISIENNE DE L'ELECTRICITE ET DU GAZ EL BORMA - GABES GAS PIPELINE PROJECT Assumptions Used For Rate of Return Calculations 1. The table in this Annex shows the calculation of the most likely rate of return on the proposed project. Economic benefits in the form of cost savings are generated by the use of natural gas as a source of thermal energy rather than alternative fuels, particularly fuel oil, at the Rhennouch power generating station, the ICM chemical plant and the El Hamma brick factory. 2. The benefits accruing to this project must be stated in terms of the economic costs of alternative fuels at the burners in Gabes. The present C.I.F. price of fuel oil at Gabes is estimated at D6.8 per metric ton or US $12.90 equivalent. This is the current price of fuel oil supplied by the STIR refinery to STEG for its other generating plants and this price corresponds to the C.I.F. price of imported fuel oil dockside in Bizerta. The economic cost to handle and store this fuel oil, from the dockside to the burners is estimated at US$.38 per ton. Total econ- omic cost of the fuel oil at the point of use is $13.28 per ton, equiva- lent in effective heating value to 1,000 m3 of natural gas at $13.60. Tax elements are considered as transfer payments and have therefore been eliminated in these calculations. 3. The economic cost of natural gas includes the cost of preparing the natural gas for pipeline transmission and the cost of operating the pipeline. The natural gas at El Borma is now being flared, and with no other apparent economic use, its economic cost at the wellhead is taken as zero. 4. The proposed project postpones the need for investments in fuel oil storage and pumping facilities by STEG, which would otherwise be required in 1972 and 1975. The difference in investment costs for the lpipeline project compared to the immediate use of fuel oil, is included in the Annex Table. 5. Based on the economic cost of fuel oil, the projected sales (Annex 3) and the estimated economic costs of the project, the rate of return has been calculated for the economic life of the project, 1972 to 1986. The minimum rate of return is 10.6%. This return would increase if the demand for gas prior to 1979 exceeds the levels forecasted if the supply of gas available beyond 1978 exceeds expectations, or if the cost of fuel oil rises. The most probable rate of return is 12%.   ThINISTA .tAISAL rF OCIE-7 1-'I UE. 3E ELE/,TDT(,ITE 'T DU *IA EL BORMA - GABES GAS PIPELINE PROJECT *U'M'ARY 2F BTEFiT - -I1OT AALYSI1 _T_ _7_ THO7JSANTDS) _____ __ __ Oapital osts Savings in Fuel Oil ostF Costs of Natural ^as Net Benefit Pipeline Year Local Forei-.- subtot+l Otnhe ___._____________________ __________ ______________________________ ________D ( () -(A) -( s)- (D) 1771 2 '15 5,YO9 8,3IL -831] 1972 1,200 3,J 3,S01 -575 L36 38c -4276 1-3 730 1o32 392 512 l j 7x 1632 392 1?2 LO 1975 -310 1632 '9, 1550 ''77 307L 25 2670 307i4 395 2679 1978 3.917 395 352^ 1979 34L5L 9$ 3059 198v B2, 2978 3?5 2058 1981 50 2611 379 2167 1982G 2326 393 1933 3 o 1y93 2)51) 393 161-'1 1.7'd:3 17 2 3.91 1377 198$5 1,7P 391 11V7 l/ s-ue il iLo' R3 e - op.Re - s=o1 1; Fuel Cii P;i;UP:ln arid StOra 'e f8acii,e.c   ANNEX 7 TUNISIA APPRAISAL OF SOCIETE TUNISIENNE DE L'ELECTRICITE ET DU GAZ EL BORMA-GABES GAS PIPELINE PROJECT Assumptions used in Financial Forecasts 1. Interest during construction of the project has been treated as an expense in the Profit and Loss account. 2. Interest charge on the proposed Kuwait Fund loan would be 4% and on the proposed Bank loan at 7-1/4%. 3. The proposed loans would be repayable semi-annually in equal instalments of principal plus interest. 4. Provision for depreciation of the pipeline is provided on a straight line basis over fifteen years. All other additions to fixed assets are depreciated at the rate of 5% per annum.   Appraisal of -he Soeiete S'unisienne De LI Electricitie Et 3u Daz aL Bormra-Gabes Gas Pipeline Project Investmernt Program (TDs millions) Ye_- -!e- 31 Decembe-r 12. 1972 1973 197 197 16 1977 198 1950 total r. oc _ or. - 1.15C 9.100 - - 5.630 - 6. G00 - 6.450 - 28.300 .rar.sm_ss_sr _ 1.250 .590 .393 .710 .140 .150 .160 .170 .180 3.783 D i str_bion 2.190 2.300 2.415 2.535 2.661 2.791; 2.934 3.080 3.234 3.396 3.566 31 .405 Oas .296 .326 .326 .326 .335 .345 .355 .365 .375 .385 .4Go 3.834 ?pieiir.e - 4.365 2.1415 .383 - - - - - - - 7.163 0;1-er .230 .200 .250 .330 .363 .1400 .1440 .434 .532 .585 .645 4.379 Renova-3ons _0 .4~ 0 .o80 .920 .970 1.020 1.070 1.170 1.170 1.230 1.288 11.j35; 37.86 10.L71 15.976 b.887 1L22 10.869 149.,9 11.199 ';.L 12.216 6.079 92.222  TABLE 2 Ap;rai.sa]. of 1'he Soc iete Tunisiennc iDe L' Liectricite Et iu Gaz ;^Borrma-Gabes (,ao_P,_e3Ane Estimated Capital. Costs of Pip ne Cost US$' (Thousands) Local t'oreij Total Pipe FOB Source - 2,510 2,510 Ocean Freight - 115 115 SDubtotal Elp Cost - * ,625 2,625 Valves ?; Fi.ttinS FOB ''ource - 350 350 Ocean Freight - 20 'I0 'Subtohnil Val ve K Ji ttinrs - 370 3 70 P ipe Installation Haul;ng ,- P tri -- 22> - 222 Bcplcsives, ,li1 trodes. Coating 13 762 775 Constructi on 2,045 2,178 4,223 ',ubtotal I1n ...', t allatil.n 2,280 2,940 5,220 Total Fittings d.. Gonstruction 2,80 3,310 5,590 A Buldirng Office anc' Control, T{hennouc; 125 - 125 cr1 ineerir2 - 275 275 ,r)erv:son 5349 374 :;ubto-t': l . ,43(, 6D,559 8,989 (Jo riti Incy- 12. 499 625 TOTAY L Pipcline, -,556 7,058 siOn all itenmo eyceot pioe which is at bid offer orice.  TABLE 3 9Ear isal o. the -,ocicte Tunisienrne rD vI Llertr:.c'to .1; l.t (,az Elt B<orma- . ) a ie s Ca f i]ii Estimated C,aita] Cos,,s of Com ress.sion o rind Treatment Plant Cost 1Jn ) _Thousn _- Loc.^l FcreiLn Toti,l Cmpressors, and Coolers FO Source - 620 020 Ocean FrecIFt. - 32 32 Transport "o Si t,e 45 - 45 In.,tallati on -o 35 55 'L:reatment l la ti FOB Source _ 50 5 C) Ocean FreiFht - 27 27 Transportation To Site 22 - 29 Tnstallati on 8 1 50C 230 Electric 3uo - FOB Source - 320 320 Ocean Fre4iht 13 13 Transport, To Site 1 7 - 1 7 Installatic)n 5r5 1 05 160 General Ins talla il-on Oas and ,'ater PiPie.rie ) Electrical and Commun1icatiori Wiring ) 38l 308 692 Fencing, Operna L,;In{ ) Buildlings 5' ) Tnnloy7ee HouqSnm I Borrna -37 mrineerini - 113 113 su'erv v i c.r-l 1 i 142 1 3y Subf.t-.c) I I ,S1