Somalia - Education Project

|RETURN TO RESTRICTED REPORTS DESK Report No. PE-23a WITHIN HECP ONE WEEK This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations. They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION APPRAISAL OF AN EDUCATION PROJECT IN SOMALIA May 7, 1971 Education Projects Department  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS US$ 1 = So. Sh. 7 So. Sh. 1 = US$ 0.14 So. Sh. 100 = US$ 14 GLOSSARY Koranic Schools : two years of pre-elementary religious instruction Elementary education : Grades 1-4 Intermediate education : Grades 5 - 8 Secondary education : Grades 9 - 12 N. T. E. C. : National Teacher Education Center T. V. T. C. : Technical Vocational Training Council E. E. C. : European Economic Community  TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ........................... i I. INTRODUCTION ........ .............................. 1 II. THE EDUCATION SYSTEM .............................. 2 III. MANPOWER NEEDS AND EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS ....... 5 The Quantitative Aspect ..... ................. 5 The Qualitative Aspect ..... .................. 9 IV. EDUCATION FINANCE ................................. 10 V. THE PROJECT ........ ............................... 13 Technical Features ........................... 13 Cost of the Project .......................... 16 Execution of the Project ..... ................ 19 VI. RECOMMENDATIONS ................................... 20 This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission which visited Somalia in August-September, 1970. The mission consisted of Messrs. G. Pennisi (economist), J. Theodores (architect), M. Krohn (technical edu- cator, ILO), D. Martens (agricultural educator, FAO) and A. Cespedes (general educator, consultant).   ANNFXES 1. Comparative Education Indicators 2. EnrollTments by Grades and Controlling Authority, 1969-70 3. Enrollments in Government Schools, 1966-1969 4. Employment in Government, Autonomous Organizations and Part of the Private Sector, 1968 5. Manpower Demand and Supply, 1968-1980 6. Projected Enrollments in Government Schools, 1970-1981. 7. Teacher Demand and Supply in Government Schools, 1969-1981 8. Projected Enrollments by Grades and Programs at NTEC, 1970-1981 9. School Fees in Force and Proposed 10. Distribution of Recurrent Budget of the Ministry of Education, 1969-1980 11. Technical Assistance 12. Locations of Agricultural Mobile Units 13. Cost of the Project 14. Contingency Allowances 15. Implementation of the Project 16. Forecast of Disbursements CHARTS 1. Structure of the Government Education System 2. Enrollments Pyramid, 1970 and 1976 3. Organization Chart of the Ministry of Education MAP of Somalia with Project Schools   SOMALIA BASIC DATA - 1969/70 General Total population 2.8 million (est.) Population growth 2.5% p.a. Per capita income (est.) US$ 5o - 60 Education (Government schools only) Primary school enrollment as a percentage of age group 7-10 years 7.5% Intermediate school enrollment as a percentage of age group 11-14 years 5% Secondary school enrollment as a percentage of age group 15-18 years 1.7% Literacy rate 5% Government recurrent, expenditure on education 6.7% Qualified teachers: Primary 50% Intermediate 70% Secondary 68   SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS i. Somalia, one of the poorest countries in Africa with a per capita income of only about US$50-60, has a very limited budget with a current deficit. ii. A diversity of civil service procedures, school programs and written languages results from combining former Italian and British terri- tories. An urgent need is unification and improvement of the education and training facilities. These are at an early stage of development be- cause of lack of an agreed script for the Somali language, low population density, difficulties in transportation, and scarcity of teachers, teaching materials and school construction and equipment. iii. The present project is designed to improve quality, reduce wastage and achieve economies by consolidating existing institutions and make the system better geared to manpower needs. It would assist teacher training, secondary education, technical education and agricultural training and help major reforms, currently being carried out by the Somali government, in all these fields. It would provide the additional facilities to meet the minimum skilled manpower requirements of the monetary sector of the country, including Somalization, by 1980. iv. The project would comprise one new secondary school; extensions to the National Teacher Education Center, 10 secondary schools and two tech- nical and commercial schools; and 8 agricultural mobile training units. It would provide 1,690 student places. V. There would be an adequate supply of qualified students for the project schools. Staff for the institutions included in the project will be available or provided by technical assistance financed by multilateral and/or bilateral sources. vi. Accommodation schedules and equipment lists have been reviewed and are acceptable. Sites for all the institutions have been selected and are satisfactory except for one school for which adequate land will be acquired within six months from the signing of the Credit Agreement. vii. A project unit to be established within the Ministry of Education would be responsible for the implementation of the project. Professional services would be provided by technical assistance, financed as a part of the project, to strengthen the project unit and the school building section of the Ministry of Public Works. viii. Construction is expected to be completed within approximately 3 years from the signing of thte Credit Agreement. Contracts for construction and for furniture and equipment would be grouped in appropriate bid packages and awarded through international competitive bidding. It is unlikely that foreign contractors will be interested in bidding for the civil works. Domestic manufacturers of furniture would be awarded a margin of prefer- ence equivalent to the existing custons duty applicable to competing im- ports or 15% of the c.i.f. price, whichever is lower.  - ii - ix. The project is suitable as a basis for a Development Credit of US$3.3 million equivalent to Somalia. It would cover 90% of the total estimated cost of the project, equivalent to the estimated foreign exchange component and about 60% of local currency expenditure.  I. INTRODUICTION Thie Request 1.01 In May, 1969, a Unesco mission reviewed Somalia's educational objectives and identified priority projects. In April, 1970, with the assistance of a Unesco project preparation mission, the government pre- pared and presented to Bank/IDA a project for financial assistance. 1.02 The project was appraised in August-September, 1970, by a mis- sion composed of Messrs. G. Pennisi (economist), J. Theodores (architect), M. Krohn (technical educator, ILO), D. Martens (agricultural education, FAO) and A. Cespedes (general educator, consultant). During appraisal, the proposed project was revised, in agreement with the government, to reduce capital and recurrent costs. 1.03 The proposed project, estimated to cost US$3.7 million, is designed to improve the quality of Somalia's education and training, to achieve economies in recurrent expenditure, to consolidate existing insti- tutions and to make the system better geared to the manpower needs of the country. It would assist major reforms in teacher training, secondary edu- cation, technical and vocational education and agricultural training. It would consist of: (i) the construction and equipping of: (a) an extension to the National Teacher Education Center to accommodate elementary and intermediate teacher training; (b) one new secondary sclhool; (c) extensions to 10 secondary schools to provide laboratories, workshops, special rooms and libraries; (d) extensions to two technical and commercial schools to add new courses and introduce new teaching methods. (ii) eight mobile units for agricultural training; and (iii) technical assistance for project implementation and for launching the new teacher training program. Socio-economic Background 1.04 Somalia is at an early stage of economic and social development. The population is estimated at 2.8 million; some 60% is nomadic. The per capita income is estimated to be US$50-60. More than 40% of the population is below 14 years of age. The people are largely homogeneous in race, cul- ture and religion, and the Somali language is almost universally spoken but does not have an agreed script. Hence, foreign languages (Arabic, Italian and English) are being used in instruction.  1.05 The economy is largely based on subsistence farming and animal husbandry. Apart from providing a living for about 80% of the population, livestock represents some 50% of the export earnings of Somalia. Bananas and sugar cane are the most important commercial crops. Diversification of agricultural production is slowly taking place, with grapefruit, rice, grain-crops and cotton having reasonably good prospects for expansion. For this diversification to develop and for better animal production to be achieved, improvement of the agricultural extension service and of the expertise of the agricultural labor force is needed. 1.06 The small monetary sector of the economy suffers from lack of entrepreneurial ability and qualified manpower. Although employment op- portunities are growing at a very slow rate, the existing labor force needs retraining and upgrading. Agriculture, fishery and animal husbandry are to be the focus of development. Mining prospects appear now to be promising. Manufacturing needs to improve its efficiency. In all these areas and in services and public administration, efficiency and productiv- ity can increase and the use of foreign and domestic resources improve only if the country has a better supply of trained manpower. 1.07 The prospects for future economic development in Somalia depend largely on the success with which the government can concentrate local and external resources on the most promising areas of the economy. In recent years, the administration has made significant progress toward eliminating its recurrent deficit and it seems possible that the recurrent budget could be balanced within the next few years. This would allow all external as- sistance to be used for development purposes. II. THE EDUCATION SYSTEM 2.01 In spite of government efforts to expand education since inde- pendence, growth has been slow, mainly due to the lack of an agreed script for the Somali language, regional differences in systems of instruction, a high rate of nomadism and difficulties in transportation. The amalgamation of the Italian and British systems is not yet complete. The improvement of the system is further hindered by scarcity of financial resources, qualified teachers and teaching materials and equipment. Hence, enrollment ratios, as percentages of the relevant age groups, are among the lowest in Africa (Annex 1). 2.02 Most school buildings are primitive and inadequate for modern in- struction. Maintenance is lacking; furniture and equipment are poor and in- appropriate. Some elementary schools have only chalkboards and a few books. Most of the intermediate and secondary schools were built without laboratories, science being taught only by lectures. 2.03 Curricula are highly academic at all levels of education. Recent- ly, a major curriculum reform was initiated, whereby elementary and inter- mediate education would become two cycles of primary education and secondary education would offer a diversified curriculum with practical subjects.  - 3 - 2.04 These changes form part of the "Proposed Educational Development Plan", prepared with Unesco assistance and under active consideration by the government. This plan envisages: (i) expansion of elementary and inter- mediate education; (ii) improvement of secondary education; (iii) reform of the training methods of technical education; (iv) reorganization of adminis- tration; and (v) application of cost savings techniques to make the growth of the education system within the financial capability of the government. Enrollment targets for 1980-81 would be: 49,400 for elementary education; 26,000 for intermediate education; 10,500 for secondary, including technical, education. These quantitative targets approximate the supply the education system should produce to meet the manpower demand. The proposed project would assist the implementation of the plan. 2.05 The structure of education has three levels: elernentary, inter- mediate and secondary, each of four years (Charts 1 & 2). Arabic is the language of instruction at the elementary level and English is slowly re- placing Italian at the intermediate and secondary levels. There are three public technical schools, with 3 and 4-year courses, after intermediate edu- cation. A secondary agricultural school is being built and is expected to be in full operation by 1974. The National Teacher Education Center (NTEC) which trains secondary teachers and the National University are the only post- secondary institutions in the country. 2.06 Administration, highly centralized in the Ministry of Education, lacks efficiency. The present organization allows duplication of functions and overlapping of responsibilities but a major reorganization of the Minis- try is in progress as indicated by the new organization chart included in the "Proposed Educational Development Plan" (Chart 3). The planning de- partment requires substantial improvements in staffing for better utiliza- tion of Unesco long-term assistance. The school inspectorate and the regional offices of education need better definition of functions and responsibilities in order to carry out effective supervision. In-service courses should be arranged at NTEC. 2.07 An improved administration could have a major impact in making good a general problem affecting the whole education system: the low use of staff and facilities. The expected increase in enrollments will by itself require a more intensive use of facilities. The average number of students per teacher should be increased. Currently, the average student/teacher ratios are 35:1 at the elementary level, 24:1 at the intermediate level and 20:1 at the secondary. In comparable African countries these ratios are about 45:1 at the elementary level and 30:1 at the secondary level. The limited number of qualified teachers will probably require the ratio of students per teacher to increase. The government is studying how to im- prove the utilization of staff. 2.08 Elementary education enrollment increased by 53% in the last decade while doubling in most African countries. In 1969-70 about 29,300 pupils, or approximately 8% of the relevant age group, attended elementary  - 4 - schools 1/ (Annexes 2 & 3). Growth has been sluggish, not only for the reasons given in para 2.01, but mainly because of the government policy, from 1965 to 1969, of controlling elementary enrollment in order to ex- pand intermediate and secondary education. The government now intends to devote more attention to the quantitative and qualitative growth of ele- mentary education. 2.09 Intermediate education has grown rapidly, with enrollment increas- ing from 2,800 in 1960/61 to 14,300 in 1969/70, equivalent to 5% of the re- levant age group. Although retention rates are good, the quality of in- struction requires improvement. A high percentage of teachers is unqualified and most of the teachers qualified by government standards need retraining in English, the new language of instruction. 2.10 General secondary education enrollment is still equivalent to less than 2% of the relevant age group as compared to: Ethiopia Tanzania Uganda Kenya Zambia 1970 1970 1969 1968 1968 3.4% 2.4% 5% 8% 10.5% It has increased from 750 in 1960/61 to 3,900 in 1970 and is expected to reach 9,000 in 1980/81. The quality of instruction is unsatisfactory. 45% of the teachers are expatriate, provided mostly under bilateral aid, and about 50% of the remainder are unqualified by government standards. The curriculum has been unsuited to the country's needs, being mainly aca- demic and geared toward post-secondary education abroad. A new curriculum is being introduced. Its major feature is the inclusion of options in agri- culture, industrial arts, commerce and home economics. 2.11 Teacher training for secondary teachers is carried out at NTEC (para. 2.05). In 1969/70, enrollment was 180 of which 60 were in a one-year program for intermediate school teaching. Regular pre-service elementary and intermediate teacher training was discontinued in 1967 due to lack of financial resources and physical facilities. Intermediate and secondary school graduates, without training in teaching techniques, are employed directly as elementary teachers. Although about 120 unqualified elementary teachers per year receive in-service training, the lack of pre-service training reduces the quality of elementary and intermediate education. The extensions to NTEC, included in the proposed project, would provide permanent facilities for pre-service elementary and intermediate teacher training. 2.12 Technical education is given in three public technical schools, with a total of 400 students. The Mogadishu school provides 4-year courses 1/ This compares, for 1969-70, with: Ethiopia 12.5%; Tanzania 35%; Uganda 45%; Kenya 65%.  - 5 - in mechanical and electrical engineering. The Technical Institutes offer 3-year courses at the post-intermediate level in general and automotive mechanics and electricity (in Burao) and in carpentry (in Hargeisa). Ex- cept in the Technical Institute in Burao, which was established with bila- teral aid from the Federal Republic of Germany, equipment and facilities are old and inadequate. Curricula are outmoded and over 50% of the teachers are expatriates. Workshop instructors are insufficiently qualified. An Italian private school trains quantity surveyors in a 4-year course (grades 9-12). 2.13 Commercial education is given in three schools with a total enroll- ment of about 200. The public Clerical Training Center (CTC) at Hargeisa provides a two year course (grades 9 and 10) for clerks and typists. The government intends to upgrade the course to a four year program. Courses in accounting are given in a private secondary school (grades 9-12) and in the Somali Institute of Public Administration. 2.14 The National University, established in 1969, has an enrollment of more than 1,000 students, mostly part-time. Full-time attendance in the two existing schools, Law and Economics, is estimated at 220. The National University plans to open Schools of Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Engineering, in the seventies to accommodate 2,000 students. Some 1,500 Somalis are on post-secondary fellowships abroad, mainly in Italy and in Eastern European countries. 2.15 In summary, Somalia is improving her educational system by focus- s-~'ng her educational planning for a qualitative and quantitative advance at all levels of education (para 2.04), but requires to upgrade the adminis- tration and inspection functions of the Ministry and raise the quality of teaching. The present project would assist in achieving the goals of the plan by (i) eliminating a major bottleneck in teacher training; (ii) pro- viding adequate facilities for the implementation of a diversified second- ary school curriculum; (iii) permitting a more practical technicians' and skilled workers' training; and (iv) expanding farmers' training. The schools improved under the project would cater for all elementary and intermediate teacher training and for about 80% of the enrollments in sec- ondary, technical and commercial education. III. MANPOWER NEEDS AND EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS The Quantitative Aspect 3.01 A limited manpower survey in 1968, covering about 48,000 wage earners (Annex 4), estimated the total labor force at about 900,000 with 80% engaged in animal husbandry, agriculture and fishery. Total wage employment in medium and large size establishments in 1968 was estimated at about 65,000 or 7% of the labor force, with some 58,000 in public and private civilian employment and 7,000 in military employment. Projections of wage employment in medium large units based on the 1968 stock must be  considered only as a minimum requirement since thtey exclude smaller units and self-employment. The compositioii of civili ha wage employment in 1968 and 1980 is given in Anniex 5 aind suumiarized below: 1968 Annual growtht 1980 rate (Compounded) l. Professional, technical and administrative: High level 6,900 (12%) 6.0 4,500 ( 5%) Middle level 6 9.700 (12%) 2. Technicians (agriculture, transport, telecommunications, etc.) 4,200 ( 7%) 3.8 6,600 ( 8%) 3. Clerical and sales workers 3,200 ( 5%) 3.3 4,700 ( 6%) 4. Craftsmen and skilled workers 11,700 (20%) 2.4 15,500 (19%) 5. Semi-skilled and unskilled workers 32,000 (56%) 1.9 40,000 (50%) Total civilian wage employment in units of 5 or more (I) 58,000 (100%) 2.8 81,000 (100%) Total Labor Force (II) 900,000 1,100,000 I as a % of II 6 7 The projection to 1980 was made on the basis of past trends, future short trends and on a long term conservative extrapolation. 3.02 Two major inter-related problems are highlighted by the first (1963) and second (1968) manpower surveys and by other studies: (i) the unemployment in major towns: and (ii) the low educational qualifications at all levels of employment. Unemployment data indicate that job seekers are as much as 30% of the labor force in Mogadishu and more than 35% in Kisimayo. Most are semi-skilled and unskilled workers, coming from the traditional sector of the economy. The absence of sufficient employment opportunities in the monetary sector poses economic and social problems. A series of low cost public works programs, mainly in agriculture and road construction and main- tenance, initiated by the government in November 1969, created some 2,500 new productive jobs by the spring of 1970. However, these are only stop-gap measures and the only long-term effect on unemployment will derive from im- proving production, efficiency and the basic infrastructure, including edu- cation and training, in rural areas.  3.03 In urban wage employment only 570, including 360 Somalis, of the professional, technical and related workers, had a university education. Some 30% of the groups often requiring secondary education (categories 1-3 in para. 3.01) were estimated to have completed grade 12. About 1,500 of the stock of middle level technicians had received some pre-service train- ing. Most skilled workers did not have any formal training. There is, therefore, an urgent need to upgrade the educational background of the Somali high and middle level manpower. 3.04 It is estimated that the future minimum additional requirements of the labor market and the needs of the next level of education should be: Output educational level Period 1968 - 1975 Period 1975 - 1980 (aggregate) (aggregate) 1. Degree or equivalent 4,800 2. Completed secondary education 4,500 7,000 (grade 12) 3. Completed intermediate education 21,000 21,000 (grade 8) 4. Completed primary education 31,000 53,000 (grade 4) To achieve these output targets, enrollment targets should be as shown in Annex 6, which agrees with the proposed long-term educational plan of the Somali government (paras. 2.04 and 2.14). However, the government's element- ary education target (49,000 by 1981) should be revised and expanded to 63,400 in order to provide in the long run sufficient intake for secondary education. The government has already indicated its intention to give more emphasis to elementary schools (para. 2.04). Other needs exist in the areas of teacher training, secondary, technical, commercial and agricultural edu- cation. 3.05 Teacher Training. Of the 1,300 elementary and intermediate teachers, only about 750 are qualified. In-service elementary teacher training is being conducted with Unicef assistance but there are no faci- lities for pre-service training for teachers in elementary and intermediate schools. To staff these schools with qualified teachers, pre-service train- ing requirements amount to about 1,500 by 1981 (Annex 7) and an extension to the National Teacher Education Center to provide an annual output of 120 elementary and 65 intermediate teachers is therefore needed. At the secondary level, full Somalization of the teaching staff is expected by 1977/78 since NTEC would provide an output of 40-50 secondary teachers per year (Annex 8). The project would assist gradual Somalization of teach- ers at all levels to be completed by the end of the decade.  -8- 3.06 Secondary Education. Existing secondary schools and those being built under self-help schemes or with EEC assistance 1/, will be sufficient to cater for the projected enrollment expansion in the seventies, if the average class size is gradually raised to 35 pupils. Only one new second- ary school, in Mogadishu, is included in the project. This would accomo- date enrollments now in facilities that would revert to use as primary schools. In addition, 10 existing secondary schools need laboratories, workshops and special rooms to implement a diversified curriculum that would include practical subjects (paras. 2.03, 2.10, 2.15). These addi- tions would provide only a very moderate expansion in terms of student places. They would, however, improve the regional distribution of educa- tional opportunities and reduce the need for boarding. It is estimated that in 1975, 16% of the secondary students would be boarders as opposed to 25% in 1969. This would result in an 8-10% reduction in unit recurrent costs, at constant prices, for secondary students. In 1978, only 12% of the sec- ondary school students would be boarders. 3.07 Technical and Commercial Education. Expanded telecommunication facilities will create a need for about 15-20 telecommunication technicians per year. Building construction and civil engineering technicians are in great demand in the government and in the private sector; information on the Short-Term Development Plan indicates that in the government and para- statal organizations alone some 150 construction technicians are needed by 1974 and a long-term private and public demand can be conservatively quan- tified at 30-40 per year. Mechanical and electrical engineering technicians are also in demand as indicated by the good employment records of the grad- uates of Mogadishu technical school. Training for automotive technicians is necessitated by the gradual mechanization of transportation. Qualified ac- countants and secretaries are in short supply in all the sectors of the economy. 3.08 To raise efficiency and productivity in industry, the training profile of the skilled workers requires improvement. Initial government proposals were for the establishment of a National Vocational Training Center. On cost effectiveness grounds, these proposals were revised to provide short courses for upgrading skilled workers in the technical schools of Mogadishu and Hargeisa during afternoons and vacations (when school classes are not held); establishment of trade tests; and setting up of a "tracer" system to follow up the employment of those trained in the schools. A "tracer" system would assist the schools in determining courses for which the needs are greatest. Some 800-1,000 skilled and semi-skilled workers per year could be upgraded and/or retrained. 1/ The European Economic Community (EEC) is building and equipping 8 schools (intermediate, secondary and agricultural) for a total of about So. Sh. 27 million. The project is expected to be completed in 1972.  3.09 Agricultural Education. Somalia's continu:ing development depends chiefly upon agricultural and livestock production. Currently, the exten- sion service, including some 160 extension agents and 390 vaccinators, mostly untrained, can reach only a small percentage of the farming and pas- toral population. In the mid-seventies, the EEC-financed agricultural sec- ondary school is expected to provide an adequate supply (60 a year) of ex- tension workers whose effectiveness would depend on the strengthening of present extension and farmers' training methods. The Bonka Farmers' Training Center - the only one now operating in the country - caters for about 250 farmers per year. A mobile unit, used experimentally in 1966-67 by USAID - Wyoming University Team had very encouraging results. Therefore, there is a need to revitalize and systematize mobile training within the present managerial capability of the Ministry of Agriculture. The Qualitative Aspect 3.10 To meet the demand of the labor market, quality improvements are necessary in all fields of education. The first need of elementary and intermediate education is for an adequate supply of properly qualified teachers. Their training should include teaching practice in schools both in rural and urban areas. The extension of the National Teacher Education Center at Afgoi, included in the project, has, in this respect, an important feature since teaching practices could be arranged in schools in Mogadishu and in the rural communities surrounding Afgoi. In addition, audio-visual teaching aids should be developed from local materials in order to improve the supply of these aids without relying only on foreign grants and imports; this can be done with the provision of a workshop where elementary and inter- mediate student/teachers would develop prototypes. Further, the curricula should become better geared to Somalia's environment and this needs an improved curriculum development unit, for which physical facilities and technical assistance are required. 3.11 At the secondary level of education, quality can be improved only if a new diversified curriculum emerges from the amalgamation of the former Italian and British systems. The new curriculum should offer terminal edu- cation, with pre-vocational content, to the growing number of grade 12 leavers who do not follow post-secondary courses. The curriculum outline, already approved by the Somali government (para. 2.10), stems from this urgent need. Its implementation requires the modernization of the physical facilities of many schools (paras. 2.02 and 3.06) and a supply of teachers of practical subjects. Since these last would be needed only in very small numbers, it would be inappropriate to establish a special teacher training institute; instead, short-term courses in teaching techniques should be arranged for the graduates of institutions already existing or being built, such as the technical, commercial and agricultural schools. 3.12 The priority need in technical education is an improvement of the existing facilities to give more practical training. The technical school at Hargeisa should also become a full-fledged secondary technical school like that at Mogadishu for producing middle level technicians; the carpentry course at Hargeisa should be discontinued and replaced with courses  - 10 - in building construction and civil engineering. New courses in automotive trades and telecommunications should be started at Mogadishu. The training program should put more emphasis on workshop activities and, to this end, capital investment should be accompanied by technical assistance to improve the qualification of workshop instructors. Cooperation with employers should be enhanced through the establishment of a Technical Vocational Training Council. 3.13 Quality improvements in commercial education can be achieved by upgrading the Clerical Training Center at Hargeisa (para. 2.13) into a 4- year commercial course for accountants and secretarial personnel with an annual output of 50. This would need only minor investment in building alterations, furniture and equipment. IV. EDUCATION FINANCE 4.01 Education financing is undergoing a process of integration and differences still exist in financial procedures, tuition and boarding fees between the North and the South. The "Proposed Educational Development Plan 1970-1973" provides for the unification of fees at the post-elementary level (Annex 9) and for maintaining free elementary education and assist- ance for the pre-elementary Koranic schools. 4.02 Public expenditure. There are no estimates of private expenditure on education. Public expenditure is the responsibility of the Ministry of Education, accounting for some 90% of government recurrent spending on education. Since independence, the budget of this Ministry has been about 7% of central government expenditure. (in million So Sh.) 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1. Central Government Budget 172.3 189.2 203.1 272.1 301.5 2. Budget of the Ministry of Education 12.6 12.2 13.4 18.9 20.4 2 as a % of 1 7.3 6.7 6.5 6.9 6.7 This ratio is substantially lower than those in neighboring countries mainly because of the low enrollment numbers and participation rates, and the high level of foreign assistance for recurrent expenditure as indicated by the large number of expatriate teachers.  - 11 - 4.03 Average unit recurrent costs, excluding boarding, are shown below (in US$ equivalent): Somalia Ethiopia Kenya Uganda Rwanda 1968 1969 1968 1969 1967 Elementary 46 20 28 24 73 Intermediate 62 ) ) 80 182 180 120 Secondary 125 ) The high cost of the elementary level is chiefly due to the over-generous teacher/student ratio. This factor should diminish as the school population increases and better use of staff is made (para. 2.07). A recent review in civil service salaries is expected to produce a 10%-15% reduction in unit recurrent costs. 4.04 In the sixties, capital expenditure on education reached high levels. External assistance to school building and to launching new edu- cational programs - granted mostly by Italy, the Federal Republic of Germany, the United States, the European Common Market and the USSR - w a about So.Shs. 100 million from 1961 to 1970. The "self-help" scheme, i.e., low cost school building financed by the Central Government, the communities, the Army and the Police, provided the entire expansion of elementary schools, most of the increase of intermediate schools and a substantial part of secondary education growth. From 1965 to 1970, 300 classrooms were built under self-help for some So. Shs. 1.5-2 million. 4.05 Future expenditure. On the basis of the enrollment targets (Annex 6, para. 3.04) necessary to sustain Somalia's economic development (para. 3.01), future recurrent expenditure of the Ministry of Education has been projected as shown below and in Annex 10: (So. Shillings in Thousands) 1970 1975 1980 Administration 1,816 2,142 2,560 Elementary Education 10,162 10,752 21,888 Intermediate Education 4,853 7,900 11,577 Secondary Education 5,575 7,410 13,294 (general and technical) Contribution to Higher 1,000 3,500 7,000 Education and Teacher Training Other 158 535 610 Total 23,564 32,239 57,929 Annual rate of increase (compounded) 6.4% 12.3%  - 12 - The projection assumes that, as a result of better utilization of staff (para. 2.07) and of reduction of boarding (para. 3.06), unit recurrent costs will decrease until 1975 and that increases thereafter will be controlled so as not to exceed those in per capita income. A gradual decrease in for- eign aid for recurrent expenditure is also assumed. In 1975, recurrent ex- penditure on education is expected to be slightly less than 10% of the gov- ernment recurrent budget. The projected rate of increase in enrollment beyond 1975 can be adjusted to fit financial circumstances without detri- mental effect on the project. However, the 1980 figures are in accordance with projected minimum manpower needs and would only require that educa- tional expenditure absorb 14% of the recurrent budget, a ratio already reached and often surpassed in neighboring African countries. 1/ The an- nual rate of increase in expenditure would be about 9%. In order to facil- itate this increase, the government is planning a series of actions such as a transfer of part of educational expenditure to local authorities, unifica- tion of tuition fees and an increase in boarding fees (Annex 9). 4.06 Additional annual recurrent expenditure generated by the project is estimated at about So. Sh. 3.4 million; this would be equivalent to some 8% of the recurrent budget of the Ministry of Education in 1977. 4.07 Future levels of capital expenditure can be estimated, mainly on the basis of foreign aid commitments and additional self-help programs. In addition to the present EEC school building programs (para. 3.06), the fol- lowing capital expenditure would be needed during the period 1970-1980 to meet the government's programs in education: Possible (In million Sources of So. Shs.) Financing Elementary and intermediate education 65 Self-help Secondary, technical, commercial and teacher education 20 IDA National University 20 Bilateral aid Total 105 1/ Comparable figures are: Ethiopia (1969/70) 18%; Uganda (1970/71) 28%; Tanzania (1969/70) 23%.  - 13 - V. THE PROJECT Technical Features 5.01 The proposed project would assist reforms in teacher training and secondary, technical and agricultural education (paras. 2.04, 2.14 and 3.09) and would consist of the following items: A. Construction and equipping of: Teaching Boarding Staff Accommodation Accommodation Houses Yype of Institution Add. Total Add. Total Add. Total Teacher Training 1. Extensions to the National Teacher Education Center 400 700 260 560 5 27 Secodary Education 2. One new and extensions to 10 secondary schools 1,180 4,430 - 444 - - Technical and Commercial Education 3. Extension to 2 technical and commercial schools 110 660 - - - - Agricultural Education 4. 8 Mobile Training Units - - - - - - TOTALS 1,690 5,790 260 1,004 5 27 B. Technical assistance for: (i) project implementation (10 man-years) (ii) teacher training (7 man-years) 5.02 Schedules of accommodation have been revised to provide facilities whichl are functional and economical. Utilization factors are estimated at 85% for classrooms and 70% for laboratories, workshops and special rooms. The curricula for teacher training, secondary, technical and commercial edu- cation are being revised and their new outlines have been approved by the government. During negotiations assurances were given by the government that the new curricula will be finalized and forwarded to the Association for comment within one year from the signing of the Credit Agreement.  - 14 - 5.03 Teacher Training. The extension to the National Teacher Education Center (NTEC) at Afgoi, about 20km from Mogadishu, would provi(le permanent facilities for elementary (250 student places) and intermediate (150 student places) teacher training (Annex 8). The 2-year course would follow grade 10 for elementary teacher training and grade 12 for intermediate teacher training. Short in-service courses would be provided for existing elemen- tary and intermediate teachers and for professional training in teaching methods for secondary teachers of practical subjects. The NTEC, when ex- tended, would include a curriculum development unit and a workshop to develop auidio-visual teaching sets from local materials. New teaching methods would be introduced and research projects would be carried out with the aim of making elementary and intermediate education more relevant to rural areas and developing the content of courses in science and practical subjects for secondary education. Further, research on the development of a script for the Somali language would be conducted. Practice teaching would be provided in Mogadishu and Afgoi schools. 5.04 Additional boarding facilities are required since students would come from all parts of Somalia. The project would add 260 new boarding places to the existing 300. About 20% of the student body would commute and buses would be included in the proposed project. These buses would be used also for students' transportation to the schools for teaching prac- tice. The project would include five additional staff houses that, to- gether with the 22 already existing, would provide on-campus accommodation for about two thirds of the teachers required by NTEC at full operation. The inclusion of the additional houses is necessitated by the housing short- age in the Mogadishu area. 5.05 NTEC has 27 teachers most of whom are Somalis. Technical assis- tance was provided by USAID - Eastern Michigan University until early in 1970. The government has requested comprehensive technical assistance, including 20 man-years of expert services and 10 fellowships of 9 months each, from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). This UNDP project would include curriculum development and the training of Somali teachers. Since UNDP assistance is not certain, a minimum requirement of 7 man-years of technical assistance is included in the proposed project (Annex 11). 5.06 Secondary Education. The project would provide one new secondary school, extensions for nine and the re-equipping only of one. The schools improved under the project would cater for two-thirds of the student-places available in 1974, the remaining being either in existing adequate facili- ties or in new EEC schools. The extensions would add science laboratories, workshiops, commercial and home economics rooms and libraries to accommodate the new diversified secondary school curriculum now being developed. 5.07 Full Somalization of the secondary schools teaching staff is fore- seen by 1977/78 (para. 3.05). For proper operation of the project schools, teaching requirements can be summarized as follows:  - 15 - Practical Subjects General Subjects Science Home Economics Agriculture Commerce Ind. Arts 160 13 4 7 10 6 The teachers of general subjects and of science would be trained in the regular NTEC program. The teachers of home economics and practical suab- jects would be recruited among the graduates of the agricultural, technical and commercial schools and in the home economics center at Mogadishu and would receive training in teaching techniques at NTEC according to a scheme already outlined by the government. During negotiations, assurances were given by the Government that this scheme will be finalized and sent to the Association for comment within one year from the signing of the Credit Agree- ment. 5.08 Technical Education. The two secondary technical schools includ- ed in the project would be re-equipped, extended and improved to accommodate 4-year courses in mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, automotive trades, and telecommunications at the Mogadishu school, and building con- struction and civil engineering at the Hargeisa school. Entrants would have completed intermediate education. The curriculum would be practically oriented with technical subjects and laboratories and workshop practice accounting for about two-thirds of the weekly timetable. The output would satisfy manpower needs (para. 3.07) and would be: Output Output Mogadishu 1970 1975 General Mechanics 13 15 Electricity 9 15 Automotive Trades - 15 Telecommunications - 15 Hargeisa Carpentry 40 - Building Construction - 15 Civil Engineering - 15 Total 62 90 5.09 The two schools now have 29 teachers, of whom 14 are Somalis. Some 35 teachers in total would be needed when the schools are at full op- eration. Additional teachers would be trained on fellowships abroad and as counterparts to technical experts. The government has requested as- sistance, including 20 man-years of expert services and 12 fellowships of 6 months each, from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). 5.10 The two schools would be used during vacations and afternoons for short-term upgrading courses for skilled workers to be arranged in coopera- tion with industry and government services. To this effect, a Technical Vocational Training Council (TVTC) would be established for coordinating  - 16 - activities among the training institutions, the employers and the various Ministries concerned. In addition, trade standards and tests and a "tracer" system to follow the employment of technicians and skilled workers would be developed. During negotiations assurances were given by the government that a detailed plan of action for (i) skilled worker training, (ii) establish- ment of the TVTC and (iii) development of trade standards and tests and of the "tracer" system to follow up employment of the graduates (para. 3.08) will be submitted to the Association within two years from the signing of the Credit Agreement. 5.11 Commercial Education. The Clerical Training Center at Hargeisa would be re-equipped and upgraded to become a 4-year commercial section of the Hargeisa Technical-Commercial School. Its curriculum would include a 2-year common course in general subjects to be followed by specialization in accounting and secretarial work. The existing staff would be strengthened with technical assistance to be provided by bilateral schemes. 5.12 Agricultural Education. The project would provide eight mobile training units, to be located in the four most promising agricultural re- gions of the country (Annex 12). Under the supervision of the Extension Service Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and the direction of the Regional Directors of Agriculture, the units, two per location, would arrange visits to districts and villages and run short courses, using audio- visual programs on crop and animal production practices, farm mechanic skills, fertilization, etc. Each mobile unit would include farm equipment and audio-visual aids and would be staffed with a qualified extension agent, as instructor, and a driver. 5.13 During negotiations, assurances were given by the government that, within one year from the effective date of the Credit Agreement, it will provide the Association with its plan for implementing that part of the project pertaining to the mobile units. Cost of the proiect 5.14 The conistruction cost estimates have been derived from recent school building costs in Somalia and adjusted to accommodate improvements in design and construction. The estimated average unit cost for the exten- sions to the secondary schools is about US$98 per m2 which compares favor- ably to cost factors in other East African countries where unit costs per m2, at 1970 prices, range from about US$ 85 in Kenya to about US$ 120 in Sudan. Furniture and equipment estimates were revised for all schools and are reasonable. Costs for these categories have been included in the cost of each school. Detailed lists would be compiled during the desigr stage and reviewed by IDA before procurement. 5.15 The total cost of the proposed project is estimated at So. Sh. 25.67 million or US$3.67 million, net of import duties and other taxes. It has been the Government's practice to exempt contractors from customs duties and other import taxes on materials and equipment procured for its projects. The Government intends to follow the same practice for the present project. The project cost breakdown given in Annex 13 is summarized below:  - 17 - Somali Shillins (Millions) US Dollars (Millions) Percent Local/Foreign Total Local/Foreign Total of Total 1. National Teacher Education Center (extension) 1.74 2.68 4.42 0.25 0.38 0.63 17.3 2. Secondary Schools (one new, ten extensions) 2.98 6.98 9.96 0.43 1.00 1.43 38.8 3. Technical and Commercial Schools (extensions) 0.51 2.09 2.60 0.07 0.30 0.37 10.1 4. Mobile Agricultural Education Units 0.11 1.00 1.11 0.02 0.14 0.16 4.3 5. Technical Assist- ance 0.72 2.85 3.57 0.10 0.41 0.51 13.9 6. Project Adminis- tration 0.46 0.05 0.51 0.06 0.01 0.07 2.0 7. Contingencies (a) Price (11.9%) 0.55 2.08 2.63 0.08 0.30 0.38 10.2 (b) Physical (3.9%) 0.28 0.59 0.87 0.04 0.08 0.12 3.4 Sub-total (a + b) 0.83 2.67 3.50 0.12 0.38 0.50 13.6 Total 7.35 18.32 25.67 1.05 2.62 3.67 100.0  - 18 - The cost of the project by types of expenditure is estimated as follows: D of % of So.Sh. (millions) US$ (millions) Total Foreign Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Cost Exchange 1. Construction (a) Site Devel- opment 0.81 0.21 1.02 0.11 0.03 0.14 4.0 20.0 (b) Academic & Communal 2.78 4.1.6 6.94 0.40 0.59 0.99 27.0 60.0 (c) Boarding 0.49 0.74 1.23 0.08 0.10 0.18 4.8 60.0 (d) Staff Housing 0.16 0.24 0.40 0.02 0.04 0.06 1.5 60.0 Sub-total 4.24 5.35 9.59 0.61 0.76 1.37 37.3 55.8 2. Furniture 0.50 2.02 2.52 0.07 0.29 0.36 9.8 80.0 3. Equipment 0.60 5.38 5.98 0.09 0.77 0.86 23.4 90.0 4. Technical Assistance 0.72 2.85 3.57 0.10 0.41 0.51 13.9 80.0 5. Project Admin- istration 0.46 0.05 0.51 0.06 0.01 0.07 2.0 10.0 6. Contingencies (a) Price 0.55 2.08 2.63 0.08 0.30 0.38 10.2 79.3 (b) Physical 0.28 0.59 0.87 0.04 0.08 0.12 3.4 6.7.5 Sub-total (a + b) 0.83 2.67 3.50 0.12 0.38 0.50 13.6 76.3 Total 7.35 18.32 25.67 1.05 2.62 3.67 100.0 71.4 5.16 Contingency allowances are shown in detail in Annex 14. For un- foreseen factors, 6% is added to the cost estimates of site development and of construction and 5% to the estimated equipment costs. Price increases, estimated at 4% per annum, amount to 11.9% of the total estimated project cost. Overall, the contingency allowances are equivalent to 15.8% of the estimated project cost excluding contingencies and to 13.6% of the estimated project cost including contingencies. The estimated foreign exchange compo- nent of project costs is 20% for site development; 60% for building; 80%  - 19 - for furniture; 90% for equipment; 80% for technical assistance; and 10% for project administration. Overall, the foreign exchange component amounts to US$2.62 million, or 71.4% of the total estimated cost. 5.17 Only one new school is included in the project. The cost per student place for this secondary school is estimated at US$454. This fig- ure compares with estimated unit costs for similar schools in Ethiopia (US$488) and Tanzania (US$683). Execution of the Project (Annex 15) 5.18 A Project Unit would be established within the Ministry of Educa- tion for (a) supervision of project implementation; (b) coordination with other Government services; and (c) liaison with the Association. The Unit would include (a) a project director; (b) a deputy project director; (c) an architect; (d) a procurement officer; and (e) an accountant and adequate supporting staff. The deputy project director and the project architect would be full-time and, together with the project director, mutually accept- able to the Government and the Association. The establishment of the Proj- ect Unit and the appointment of its director, deputy director and its archi- tect would be a condition for effectiveness for the Credit Agreement. The cost of the Project Unit would be financed as a part of the project. 5.19 Design and supervision of construction would be carried out by a School Design Unit to be instituted and operated in the Ministry of Public Works. Project implementation requires professional manpower and expertise beyond the existing capacity of the Ministries of Education and Public Works. Therefore, 10 man-years of technical assistance are included in the project to provide: (a) an educator/administrator as adviser to the project director; and (b) an architect and a quantity surveyor to strengthen the Ministry of nUbic Wor1ks School Design Unit. All the technical experts recruited under the Credit would be mutually acceptable to the Government and the Association and provided with qualified counterparts. The construction industry in Somalia is capable of executing the project. 5.20 Sites for the new school and for the extensions included in the project have been inspected and found acceptable except for the liodan school in Mogadishu. For the extension to this school, a suitable site, acceptable to the Association, will be selected and acquired within six months from the signing of the Credit Agreement. 5.21 All contracts for the supply of furniture and equipment and for construction would be awarded under international competitive bidding. All items would be grouped to the extent practicable to encourage competition. Except for equipment, all of whicih is imported, it is unlikely that the project would attract foreign bidders. Domestic manufacturers would be accorded a margin of preference which would be the existing rate of customs duty applicable to competing imports or 15% of the c.i.f. price, whichever is the lower. Customs tariffs are under revision but, at present, most of the rates of the duties applicable to project related imports are higher than 15%. Since the effective operation of the teacher training and of the  - 20 - technical and commercial education programs depends on the availability of technical assistance, the government gave assurances during negotiations that before the award of contracts for the extension of NTEC or of the technical and commercial schools included in the project, it will furnish the Association with satisfactory evidence that these educational institu- tions will be provided with techinical assistance. 5.22 The proposed credit would finance $3.3 million equivalent. This is estimated to cover the foreign exchange component and about 60% of local currency costs. The credit would be disbursed to meet: (a) the c.i.f. cost of imported furniture and equipment; (b) 100% of technical assistance and project administration costs; and (c) 85% of the ront nf constra,t4n .dn f an.e1y pzvU furniture and equipment. These percentages would be adjusted so that withdrawals from the credit will not exceed US$3.3 million equivalent or 90% of the project cost whichever is lower. The funds would be disbursed over a four year period; construction would be completed in about 3 years (Annex 16). Undisbursed funds would be available for cancellation. VI. RECOMMENDATIONS 6.01 During credit negotiations agreement was reached on the following principal points: (a) the new curricula for elementary and intermediate teacher training, secondary, technical and commercial education, and the scheme for training teachers of practical subjects (paras. 5.02 and 5.07); (b) the plan of action for the training of skilled workers, the establishment of a Technical Vocational Training Council, the development of training standards, trade tests and "tracer" system, and the plan for implementing the agricultural mobile training units (paras. 5.10 and 5.13); (c) the provision of technical assistance for the project imple- mentation and for the project schools (paras. 5.19 and 5.21); and (d) the selection and acquisition of sites for all project schools (para. 5.20).  - 21 - 6.02 A condition for effectiveness of the credit would be the establish- ment of the Project Unit and the appointment of the project director, deputy director and architect, all to be mutually acceptable to the government and the Association (para. 5.18). 6.03 The proposed project provides a suitable basis for a Development Credit of US$3.3 million equivalent to the Somali Democratic Republic for a term of 50 years including a 10 year grace period.   Ed-utico Projecs prlnn ANNIEX I COM9PARATIVE EDUCATION INEEICATURS POPULATION GNP/CAPITA LITERACY PUBLIC TOUC. I. OP GOP L EU TOTAL PRIMARY6 SECONEAkY Y.IECONDAUY HEEHED % HIUHER Ii PRIMARY % SECONDARY AT FACTOR DATE EXEPNDITEURES DEVOUTED CU PUBLIC EXPENINTURE ENEOLLMENT ENUOLLMENT ENROLLMENT GRADUATES ENROLLMENT IN TEACHERS TEACHERS ClOST (Con- PER CAPITA EDUCATION DEVTA1ED TO EDUCATION UNTIE RATIO IN PER AGEICDLTURR & "QUALIFIED" "QUALIFIED" Cool l964 (Public & VOCATIONAL 100,UUO ENEINEEERIN YEAR (tiEllUne) UNN) (T of Ad,lt) (C ren DO)) Prt-nt) ~Adjostd) (Adjoatod) POPULATION (1) (2) (3)() (5N) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) ADVANCED Canada 69 21.1 2,211 91 256 U0 8.U 19.6 C 99 91 -20 02SADC 11 96 u 88 B G-r..ny, Federa Rnpob. AU 6D.2 , 7150 99 8B 3.5u U9.1 99 99 34 2151, A20 DUD EDO Japan 69 102.3 1,218 99 10 C 1.9 20.1 9) AU U 270 C 24 96 75 NothnrEands 68 12.7 1,441 99 BOA 7.0U E23 . 3 95 64 42 SE4A A24 lOU a8 Noo Urolad 70 2.8E6 1,860 E ... 9U0C 4.04u 14.1 99 71 U 189 N 7 94.. london 69 8.8 2,429 99 S2B0D 7.1 U 14.6 9)9N 63 U 26 152 C 11 U. S. A. 68 201.2 1,541 98 22) C0- 6.1 11.1 97 80 . .. 461 U 7 95 96 1. Greece1 69 8.8 713 82 18 C 3.2 C 9. Q98D U8DN 6 DO 74A 9ADC9 2. Iread 69 7.9 913 OR 58 4.9 11.4 91 70 25 1343A 12 98 RI 3. Ipain 68 32.6 650 96 12 1.0 12.1Q6 87 48 24 31 C 12. AFRICA A. En-epo 68 5.6 120 .. 2.5 14.0 73 7 26 1 A 5014 15. N. Ch-A 68 3.5 56 7 31.5 I4.3 28 2 7 .. .,I 6. Congo N 69 0.9 204DB 5Q n 4 5.8 23.2 80XN 13 9 2 8 - 40 188 1 7. Ethiopia ~~~~69 24.8 17 D 4 01 4.7 N 1UU13 A 7 4 C 18 63 16Y 8. DeAne ~~~ ~~~68 8.5 S6 1111C 3.3 13.7C 75 10 52..026 9 9. DOnna 70 8.6 U 149D8 ... 13 5,2 021.7 Q* 69 08 024 013E 152C 42EB 56E 1D.Uvo-y Ce... 6R 4.7 DID 9A ED 4.2 D0.4 4A 6 9 ... ... 55.. 11. tenyn 68 10.2 113 30 7 6.1 19.4 65 8 4 5 A 38 73 59Y 12. Marocc 70 15.1Z U 192E U 2R0 9 4.7N8 17.4 54 12 3 Sb 6 84 36Y 13. Senega1 69 3.8 1072D 19 11 P 3.7 28.1 A43I 8x 225 8A 2 70 82 Y 14. en an 68 2.5 039 27 4 2.9 019.5 C 3D 13 4 4 C 18 50 23Y IS1N5 nl 70 S.7DN 49DN 5 1 * .. . 8.9A 6 2 11 8 A ... 58 68 Y lb. NuS 68 14.8 85 ... 4 A 3.8 U 22. 1B 16A 2 A 8 A 9 8 24 . 17. Tanzani, 69 12.9 70 H) 49 035.8 18.9 35 2 2 3 A ... 948 18. DgUd. 70 8.3E U DIDE 25 A 6 5.2N0 24.3 Q 46E1 4E U3E U 5 83 E 93 U 19. Z LnbE 68 4.1 286 A41A 20 7.0 15.1 84X Ift 1 1 8.. 952 ... .Y EIAlRIECA A CARIBBEAN 28. Domininan Repobisn 68 4.D 227 59 3.7 15.3EN 88 N 17 3 16CU 16 18 40 21. El NSvador 69 3.4 248 47c C18 BV 3.4 8 25.4 CQ 63 C 19 C 20 7 A 15 C 5N 58 22. G.atenla 68 4.9 293 36 6 2.58 17.4CE 43 6 13 6 19 708. 23. J-Amabn 89 2.8 413D U b 24 5.0 19.1 86XI 43 8 11 A 8 060 52 24. Nion-g-e 68 1.8 337 50 A 8 B 3.2 9 15.6B1 73 B 10 R 13 B E13A 17 43 20 25. Trinidad A Tobago 68 1.0 755 88 26 A 3.6 18.5 I 95 A AR0A 4 15 0 33 B 47.. 0011T8 AMURIGA 26, Brazil 69 90.8 218 D 65A 19 3.5 14.0 64, 16 16 25 A 17 38 390 27. Ch IDe 68 9.4 427 84A 22 5.4 20.6B 70 25 29 41 A 28 78 . 28. Cnl1-bis 68 20.0 238 73 L2 5.U 11.6 178 21 22 220B 38 61 19 29. En...d-o 68 5.7 200 68 89 3.2 21.1 C 71 18 29 21c C29 56 18 38. CuYana 68 07 276 83 A 12 3.0 14.4 90 I 18 5 ..... 44 35 31. V..nn n69 18.0 842 81 49 v 4.6 19.4 77 24 3D29 28048 ASIA 32. CbEIo (Tai-) 68 13.5 242 90 012 3.8 16.6 98 44 1a 152 C 25 180 70 33. Indonesia 70 686.80E 95E8 43 A 1 ... 13.0QI 65DU 11 0 21 C ... IN C 34. loan 70 27.5 I 279 D 35E8 1U0 1) 3.9 9.7 57 21EU 2 23 A 9680 722 35. K..na 68 30.3 159 89 B 6 C 461 414. 95 C480C 31 C 39 B 339 80 85 36. Malysia (W-st) 68 10.6 289 89a E 5.6 16.6C 99 BX 17 B 3 70 C 10 87 95e 37. Pakieto 69 16.3 91DN 197 2 1.9 16.2 42 A 7 A 3 039 B 10 *75 25 38. Thailand 69 34.7 148 70 *5 3.7 N 15.0 73 C 12 C 10 21 B 18 6801 85 39. Turkey 69 34.5 590 49 A 9 3.7 17.1 92 25 15 40 B 16 B 180 100 BOUQARY POE LES3 ORVELOPRD COUNTRIU Bomber of CoonCrties 36 39 37 30 39 39 39 34 32 36 30 Range (4 - 98) (I - 98) (1.9 - 6.9) (6.9 - 25.6) (8 - 99) (2 - 70) (I - 32) (0 - 1NS) (0 - 33) (12 - 108) (15 - 100) Quatiles PiecE (25. end Abov) 82 14 1.0 89.3 06 24 22 39 20 85 85 Median Value (507. and Abov) 50 10 3.8 16.6 70 12 10 12 16 60 69 Third (757 ..ad Above) 30 5 3.4 14.0 44 7 4 5 10 47 30 Sy.bole: ..Datum -novllble Noten A =1965 orbefor P =lncdiodln forign aid E Rp-dito-e ratios c fee to F.Y. HPoviciom-l or estimated dota B 1966 Q Central govenmet only .Enoloen~t notion reIfo L. schnol yoar end Mageildo olD or neglogiblo C =1967 U =Poblit only ar djoeodto le ht o f level. 0Magnitude Does than baIfLi of.uit reploynd D 1968 V I..letiodg peiate cp-nditt... T-ahbo- `Qoolified` (..I. 12, 13) by -ho S 19 69 IfX Inclding overaged stdren unt- defies io.. No-r-e Column (1) and (2): World Tables (IBDR) P 1970 Y 1.lncldioge-pattcitr t-harbc, Column (3) .(9) N = .D.P. obicbh rage from 427 (Erlhiopial and (11)- (13): EdonatLio. Project Appraisal to 9g7. (Ivoy Coat, Eanbia) of ReposEs~ (0B12) 160 total seencdary ten-b- force. Eninoo (10) : oeo.Dalsin bOarb_o, 1969 4/5 27/271  Enrollments by Grades and Controlling Authority - 1969/1970 (In Thousands) A. Elementary Education Grade Grade Grade Grade Total Grand % of I II III IV Boys Girls Total Total Public 7.4 6.3 5.5 4.9 18.1 6.o 24.1 83% Private 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 4.2 1.0 5.2 17% Total 8.9 7.6 6.7 6.1 22.3 7.0 29.3 100% B. Intermediate v VI VII VIII Public 4.1 3.7 3.5 3.0 10.7 3.6 1h.3 81 Private 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 2.5 0.3 2.8 19 Total 5.3 4.5 4.2 3.1 13.2 3.9 17.1 100 C. General Secondary IX 'X XI XII Public 1.40 1.10 0.80 o.60 3.1 0.8 3.9 78 Private 0.45 0.35 0.30 0.015 1.0 0.1 1.1 22 Total 1.85 1.45 1.10 0.61 4.1 0.9 5.0 100 Secondary Education by Type % of Public Private Total Total General Secondary 3.90 1.10 5.00 82 Technical & Vocational 0.58 0.32 0.90 14 Teacher Training 0.16 - 0.16 4 Source: Miniatry of Elucation 4.64 1.42 6.06 100  Enrollnents by Grades in Government Schools 1966-1969 (In Thousands) A. Elementary Education Grade Grade Grade Grade Grand Girls % I II III IV Total Girls of Total 1966/1967 5.3 5.9 5,5 4.2 20.9 4.9 23% 1967/1968 6.4 6.3 5.5 4.9 23.1 5.2 22% 1968/1969 6.6 6.5 6.0 4.9 24.0 5.5 22% B. Intermediate V VI VII VIII 1966/1967 2.3 2.4 1.9 0.7 7.3 1.5 20% 1967/1968 3.2 3.4 1.9 1.4 9.9 2.4 25% 1968/1969 h.3 2.4 2.4 1.3 l0.4 2.1 20% C. General Secondary IX X XI XII 1966/1967 0.9 0.6 o.4 0.1 2.0 0.2 10% 1967/1968 0.7 o.6 0.3 0.2 1.8 0.2 11% 1968/1969 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.3 3.0 0.3 10% Source: Ministry of Education  EMPLOYMENT IN GOVERNMENT, AUTONOMOUS ORGANIZATIONS, AND PART OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR, 1968 L Government Autonomous Private Sector /1 Total Employment Sector Organizations Occupational Group Somalis Others Somalis Others Somalis Others Somalis Others Total Professional and technical 4357 75 141 16 181 117 4679 208 4887 [(iministrative, clerical and sales 252n 42 993 14 2171 366 5684 L22 6106 Farm workers, drillers, etc. 557 - 216 - 169 1 942 1 943 Transport and Communication workers 1623 - 1226 1 451 - 3300 1 3301 Craftsmen and artisans 17148 4 848 - 3210 62 5836 66 5902 Service workers 892 - 1465 - 39141 3 6293 3 6301 Subordinate staff and laborers 2552 _ 2460 - 7386 - 12400 - 12400 Policemen, prison staff 8304 _ - _ - - - 8304 - 8304 22,553 121 7,349 31 17,539 549 47,443 701 48,144 /1 The survey covered 1,111 firms in 24 districts only. While most agricultural employment is excluded, the survey is estimated to include some 80% of workers in the industrial and commercial sectors, and probably gives a good picture of urban employment as a whole. Source: Second Manpower Survey, 1969  Manpower Demand and Supply 1968 - 1980 Wage Wage Stock Expatriates Replacement Additi nal Employ- Replacement Additional eploy- Total Total supplY Level and Source of Somalis and vacancies Needs Requirements (malnt Needs Requirements ( t Tr e 3upply (Somalas, Sdomalis) fRaqu=mnt upl 1968 1968 1968 - 1975 1975 1975 - 1980 1980 1968 - 1980 1968-1980 1S68 - 1980 I Professional, sdmin- University istrative, executive abroad - National University and related workers a) High Level 400 600 400 2,600 3,000 300 1,500 4,500 4,800 4,500 National Teacher Education Center b) Middle Level 6,500 1,500 1,400 C,2OO 7,500 750 2,200 9,700 5,350 Secondary Education Technical Schools of Mogadishu II Technicians (agriculture, 4,200 100 300 800 5,000 350 1,600 6,600 3,050 and HarMgeisd transportation, telegcom_ui Agricultural School munications, etc. ) 13,000 Animal Health School Buree Technical Iostit.., III Clerical and sales workers 3,200 200 250 900 4,100 350 600 4,700 2,100 IV Craftsmen and skilled workers 11,700 - 940 1,800 13,500 1,100 2,000 156500 5,8a0 V Semi-skilled workers 32,000 _ 3,200 4,500 36,5oo 3.600 3.500 40.000 - I Total 58,000 69,600 81,000 21,140 17,500 Source: Estimates on the basis of first and second manpower surveys, 1964 and 1969 and draft Short-Term Development Plan The projections for 1968-75 and 1975-80 have been made on the basis of past trends in wage employment in major towns, on clearly discernible short trends as evidenced by the 1969-1975 estimates of the second manpower murvey and on a lmng tem conservative extrapolatimon It was assumed that the past rate of growth in employment in major towns, about 4% from 1963 to 1968, will decrease to about 2.8% because of (i) improvement in labor productivity; (ii) substitution of capital intensive facilities for labor intensive water mupply and port schemes in Hogadishu; and (iii) better control of In government's recurrent expenditure resulting in limiting civil service expansion. It was further aa9umed that the educational level of the three groups mentioned in para. 3.01 should be approximately as follows in 1980: Professional, technical execatlve 30% university degree or equlvaent Techniclans 50% completed technical ecl8 catio Clerical and sales 20% completed grade 12 and related w,rkers 70% completed grade 12 20% completed grade I~ workers80copedgre8 30% completed grade 0copedgre8  ANNEX 6 PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS IN GOVERNMENT SCHOOLS.,1970-1981 (in thousands) Elemen ary education Grades 1969/70 70/71 71/72 72/73 73/74 74/75 75/76 76/77 77/78 78/79 79/80 80/81 I 7.4 7.9 8.4 8.9 9.5 10.5 11.7 14.0 16.1 17.7 18.8 19.6 II 6.3 6.5 6.9 7.4 7.8 8.4 9.3 10.4 12.3 14.5 16.0 16.9 III 5.5 5.7 5.8 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.6 8.4 9.4 11.0 13.2 14.5 IV 4.9 .2 5.3 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.5 7.1 7 9 8.8 10.3 12.4 Total 24.1 25.3 26.4 27.9 29.8 32.1 35.1 39.9 45.7 52.0 58.3 63.4 Intermediate education v 4! i 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.6 6.3 7.2 VI 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 L.0 4.1 4.3 L.h 4.7 5.2 5.8 VII 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.5 1 4.9 VIII 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.9 4. 4.2 Total 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.4 17.2 18.4 20.0 22.1 Secondary education IX 1 .4 |16 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.-4 2.6 2.8-8 X 1-1 | 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.4 XI )0.6 0.9 1.1 | 0 1.0 1.2 1.3 | 1.4 7.6 1.8 2.0 2.0 XIT 0.68 0.7 9 .8 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5| 1.7 1.8 2 Total 3.9 4.4 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.6 6.0 6.6 7.3 7.9 8.5 9.0 Grand 42.3 44.3 46.0 47.8 50.1 53.4 57.1 62.9 70.2 78.3 86.8 94.5 Total l l l l l _| ll  ANN5X 7 Teacher Demanad and Supply in Government Schools 1969-70 - 1980-81 Fl-enta- Level Enrollments Teacher/Pupil Teachers Re- Total Waszg e Demand NrTC Qualified Teachers Year in Ratios quirements Unqus-li-ed Qualif ied Net Addi- Total output -Total Percentage I (000's) tional 1969/70 24.1 1:35 688 _ - - - - 344 50 1970/71 25.3 1:35 722 13 S5 34 52* - 391 54 1971/72 26.4 1,36 733 13 6 11 30* - 4i6 56 1972/73 27.9 1:36 775 13 7 42 62* - 471 60 1973/74 29.8 1:36 827 12 7 52 71* - 535 64 1974/75 32.1 1:36 891 11 8 64 83* - 610 68 1975/76 35.1 1:36 975 11 9 84 104 120 721 74 1976/77 39.9 1:37 1,078 10 10 103 123 120 831 77 1977/78 45.7 1:38 1,202 10 11 124 145 120 940 78 1978/79 52.0 1:40 1,300 10 13 98 121 120 1,047 80 1979/80 58.3 1:41 1,421 13 14 121 148 120 1,153 81 1980/81 63.4 1:41 1,546 1k 15 125 154 120 1,258 81 *Fron in-service programs _ Intermediate Level 1969/70 14.3 1:24 599 7 8 - - 419 70 1970/71 14.6 1:24 608 7 9 9 224 45* 435 71 1971/72 14.9 1:24 620 7 9 12 28 45* 454 73 1972/73 15.1 1:25 604 6 9 - 16 45* 461 76 1973/74 15.3 1:25 612 6 9 8 23 45* 475 78 1974/75 15.7 1:25 628 6 10 16 31 35 497 79 1975/76 16.0 1:25 640 6 10 12 28 35 515 80 1976/77 16.4 1:26 630 5 10 _ 15 5o 520 82 1977/78 17.2 1:26 661 5 10 31 46 60 556 84 1978/79 18.4 1:26 707 4 10 46 60 63 606 85 1979/80 20.0 1:26 769 4 12 62 78 63 657 85 1980/81 22.1 1:27 819 4 13 50 67 65 709 86 *From a cra h program. Secondary Level Available 1969/70 3.9 1:20 195 - _ - 55 45 1970/71 4.2 1:20 210 10 15 25 - 58 42 1971/72 4.5 1:21 214 10 4 1k4 37 69 31 1972/73 4.7 1:21 2242 11 10 21 37 73 27 1973/74 4.8 1:21 228 11 4 15 38 88 12 1974/75 5.42 1:21 257 12 29 411 39 88 12 1975/76 6.o 1:22 277 14 20 34 245 92 8 1976/77 6.6 1:22 300 15 23 38 [45 95 5 1977/78 7.3 1:23 317 16 17 33 245 100 - 1978/79 7.9 1:23 343 18 26 44 245 100 - 1979/80 8.5 1:23 369 19 26 45 245 100 - 1980/81 9.0 1:23 391 20 22 42 50* 100 - I_ _ _ I _ _ I I *Possible over-supply after 1980-81 wlll be absorbed in adadnistration or other professional 3obs.  Projected Enrollments by Grades and by Programs at NTEC 1970 - 1981 Programs Grades 1970 1971 1972 1973 197)4 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 I 70 73 74 75 75 75 75 75 80 80 90 100 Se con dary School II 62 63 65 66 66 66 67 67 68 70 70 81 Teachers' Program III - 56 56 57 57 57 58 58 58 59 63 63 IV - _ 51 52 53 5 51 51 52 52 53 - 5 Sub-total 132 192 246 250 251 2h8 251 251 258 261 276 298 Intermediate School I 52 60 60 60 65 65 70 75 77 75 75 75 Teachers' Program TI _ _ _ _ - 45 45 55 65 68 67 68 Sub-total 52 60 60 60 65 110 115 130 142 143 142 143 Elementary School I - _ _ l40o 125 128 128 128 128 128 128 Teachers' Program II - _ _ _ - l125 122 122 122 122 122 122 . - - - 10 250 25o 250 250 250 250 250 Grand Total 18h 252 306 310 456 608 616 631 650 65h 668 691 Ic  ANNEX 9 SCHOOL FEES In Force and Proposed in the Educational Development Plan (S. Shillings per Annum) Proposed In Force Unified Fee North South Tuition Textbooks Total Elementary Schools Day - - - 10 10 Boarding 220 - 360 - 360 Intermediate Schools Day 80 - 50 20 70 Boarding 220 70 450 -45 Secondary Schools Day 120 180 120 40 160 Boarding 330 720 540 - 5h0 Estimated fee revenue (S. Sh. per annum) at present: 150,000 (1969) after unification: 3,023,200 Source: Proposed Educational 1evelopment Plan 1970-73  Distrib-'-