Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USEONLY ReportNo.: 25350-AR INTERNATIONALBANKFORRECONSTRUCTIONAND DEVELOPMENT PROJECTAPPRAISAL DOCUMENT ENABLINGACTIVITY FOR THE SECONDNATIONAL COMMUNICATION OF ARGENTINE REPUBLIC TO THE CONVENTIONONCLIMATE CHANGE INTHEAMOUNT OFUS$l.14MILLION TO THE FUNDACIONBARILOCHE NOVEMBER 17,2003 EnvironmentallyandSociallySustainableDevelopmentDepartment Argentina, Chile, Paraguay,UruguayCountryManagementUnit Latin America andCaribbeanRegionalOffice This document has a restricteddistributionandmaybeusedby recipientsonly inthe performanceof their official duties. Its contentsmaynot be otherwise disclosedwithout WorldBank authorization CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective November 2003) Currency Unit = Argentine Peso US$0.35 ARG$ 1.00 US$ 1.00 ARG$2.86 FISCAL YEAR January 1 -- December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CAMMESA Compafiia Administradora del Mercado Mayorista ElCctrico (Wholesale Electric Power Administration Company) CAS Country Assistance Strategy CIMA Centro de Investigaci6n del Mar y la Atm6sfera (Center for Atmospheric and Ocean Studies) CDM Clean Development Mechanism CNG CompressedNatural Gas COFEMA Consejo Federal sobre el Medio Ambiente COP Conference of Parties EEM Energy Efficiency Measures ELI EfficientLighting Initiative ENARGAS Ente Nacional Regulador del Gas (National Gas Regulatory Agency ) ENRE Ente Nacional Regulador de la Electricidad(National Electricity Regulatory Agency) ENS0 ElNiAo SouthernOscillation ESCO Energy Services Company FB Fundaci6n Bariloche GEF Global EnvironmentalFacility GHG GreenhouseGases GOA Government of Argentina GTACA Grupo de Trabajo Ampliado sobre CuestionesAmbientales IAS International Accounting Standards INA Instituto Nacional del Agua (National Institute for Water) INTA Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria (National Institute of Farming Technology) IPCC Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change LUCF Land-usechange and forestry activities MEM Mercado ElCctrico Mayorista (Wholesale Electric Power Market) MTCE Million Tons of Carbon Equivalent NGO Non-governmental Organization NMP NationalMitigation Program NMVOC Non Methane Volatile Organic Compounds OAMDL OficinaArgentina del Mecanismo paraun DesarrolloLimpio (ArgentineClean Development Mechanism Office) OLADE Organizaci6n Latinoamericana de Energia (Latin American Energy Organization) PAEPRA Programade Abastecimiento ElCctrico a la Poblaci6n Rural dispersade Argentina (Program for electric energy supply for the rural dispersed population of Argentina) FOROFFICIAL USEONLY PERMER Proyecto de Energia Renovablesen Mercados Rurales (Project of renewable energiesin the rural market) PIU Project Implementation Unit PNUD Programa de las Naciones Unidas parael Desarrollo (UNDevelopment Program) RE Renewable Energy RCM Regional Circulation Model SAGPyA Secretariade Agricultura, Ganaden'a, Pescay Alimentos (Secretary of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries, and Nutrition) SAyDS Secretariade Ambiente y Desarrollo Sustentable(Secretary of Environment and SustainableDevelopment) SECyT Secretariade Ciencia, Tecnologia, e Innovaci6nProductiva (Secretary of Science, Technology, andProductive Innovation) UNFCCC UnitedNations Framework Convention on Climate Change URE Us0 Racional de laEnergia (Rational Use of Energy) Vice President: DavidDe Ferranti Country ManagedDirector: Axel van Trotsenburg Sector ManagerIDirector: John Redwood Task TeamLeadermask Manager: Juan L6pez-Silva This document has a restricted distribution andmay be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. I t s contents may not be otherwise disclosed lwithout World Bank authorization. ARGENTINA ENABLINGACTIVITY FORSECONDNATIONAL COMMUNICATION OF ARGENTINE REPUBLICTO THE CONVENTION ONCLIMATE CHANGE CONTENTS Page A PROJECTDEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE . ......................................... 2 1 ProjectDevelopment Objective . ............................................................................................. 2 2. Global Objective ...................................................................................................................... 2 3 Key Performance Indicators . .................................................................................................. 2 B STRATEGIC CONTEXT . ....................................................................... 1 Sector-Related Country AssistanceStrategy (CAS) GoalsSupported ByThe Project . ....33 2 Main Sector Issues And Government Strategy . .................................................................... 4 2.1 Climate Change. Sources andImpact.................................................................................. 4 2.2 GHGEmissions inArgentina.............................................................................................. 4 2.2.1 National circumstances and impactsof climate change ...................................... 4 2.2.1.1 Water resources ...................................................................................... 4 2.2.1.2 Land resources........................................................................................ 5 2.2.1.3 Humansettlements.................................................................................. 5 2.2.2 Integration of climate change into national planning .......................................... 5 2.3 FirstNational Communicationto the UNFCCC.................................................................. 5 2.4 MitigationStrategies............................................................................................................ 6 2.5 Monitoring Systems............................................................................................................. 7 2.6 ProgramsRelatedto Public Awareness ............................................................................... 7 3 Sector Issues To BeAddressed By The Project And Strategic Choices . ............................. 7 3.1 Lack of Institutional Capacityto ProduceGHGInventoriesandUpgradeMethodologies 7 3.2 Lack of Coordination of InfrastructureInvestmentPlanswith Measuresfor Adaptation to Climate Change.............................................................................................................. 8 3.3 Lack of Institutional Coordinationon Policies. Programs.andProjects Relatedto Mitigationof GHGEmissions............................................................................................ 8 3.4 Low Electricity Pricesand Institutional Weakness for Promoting EnergyEfficiency Measures............................................................................................................................. 8 3.5 Lack of Incentivesto PromoteRenewableEnergy.............................................................. 8 3.6 Lack of a CoordinatedTransportationPlanLinkingEnvironment andLand-UsePolicies 8 3.7 Lack of GovernmentalCommitmentfor Long-TermPlansthat Favor Forestry and Bio-energyProjects............................................................................................................ 8 C PROJECT DESCRIPTIONSUMMARY . .............................................. 9 1. Project Components ........................................................................................................... 9 1.1 National GHG Inventories................................................................................................ 10 1.2 Vulnerability Assessment and Institutional Strengtheningfor Adaptation ....................... 10 1.2.1 Vulnerability of the coastalzone ........................................................................ 11 1.2.2 Vulnerability of the Pampa Bonaerense ............................................................ 11 iv 1.2.3 Vulnerability of agriculture productionin the Pampa Hlimeda ........................ 11 1.2.4 Vulnerability of the water resources inthe Litoral-Mesopotamia..................... 11 1.2.5 Vulnerability of the Patagonia .......................................................................... 11 1.2.6 Overall socio-economic impacts of climate change .......................................... 11 1.2.7 Vulnerability of the energy system and energy infrastructure........................... 12 1.2.8 National Adaptation Strategy and regional adaptation plans............................. 12 1.2.9 Estimates of regional climate change scenarios through Regional Climate Models............................................................................................................... 12 1.3 Formulation of NationalMitigation Program(NMP)........................................................ 12 1.3.1 Energy efficiency measures (EEM)................................................................... 12 1.3.2 Transportation sector ......................................................................................... 12 1.3.3 Renewable energy (RE)..................................................................................... 12 1.3.4 Carbon sequestration ......................................................................................... 12 1.3.5 Enteric methane emissions ................................................................................ 12 1.4 Promotion of Public Awareness ........................................................................................ 13 1.4.1 Training program............................................................................................... 14 1.4.2 Promotionalcampaign....................................................................................... 14 1.5 Drafting of Second National Communication to UNFCCC.............................................. 14 1.6 Project Management .......................................................................................................... 14 2. Key Policy And Institutional Reforms Supported By The Project .................................. 14 3. Benefits And Target Population ......................................................................................... 15 4. Preliminary InstitutionalAnd ImplementationArrangements ....................................... 15 4.1 Grant Recipient and Project Implementation.................................................................... 15 4.2 General Guidance ............................................................................................................. 16 4.3 Project ImplementationUnit (PIU)................................................................................... 16 4.4 Procurement...................................................................................................................... 16 4.5 Financial Management...................................................................................................... 16 4.6 Auditing............................................................................................................................ 17 4.7 FundaczonBariloche ........................................................................................................ . I 17 D PROJECTRATIONALE . ...................................................................... 18 1. Project Alternatives Considered And ReasonsFor Rejection ..................................... 18 2. Major RelatedProjects Financed By The Bank And Other Development Agencies 18 . 3. LessonsLearnedAnd Reflected InThe Project Design ............................................... 20 4. Indications Of Borrower Commitment And Ownership .............................................. 20 5. Value Added Of Bank Support For This Project .......................................................... 21 E.SUMMARY PROJECTANALYSIS .................................................... 21 1. Economic ........................................................................................................................... 21 2. Financial ............................................................................................................................ 22 3. Technical ........................................................................................................................... 22 V 4. Institutional ....................................................................................................................... 22 4.1 Executing Agencies .......................................................................................................... 23 4.2 Project Management ......................................................................................................... 23 4.3 Procurement Issues........................................................................................................... 24 4.4 Financial Management Issues........................................................................................... 24 5. Environmental .................................................................................................................. 25 6. Social................................................................................................................................. 25 7. Safeguard Policies ............................................................................................................ 26 8. BusinessPolicies ............................................................................................................... 27 F SUSTAINABILITY AND RISKS . .......................................................... 27 1. .. Sustainability .................................................................................................................... 27 2. Critical Risks .................................................................................................................... 28 3. Possible ControversialAspects ....................................................................................... 29 G MAIN CONDITIONS . ........................................................................... 29 1. Board Condition ............................................................................................................... 29 2. Other ................................................................................................................................. 29 H READINESSFORIMPLEMENTATION . ......................................... 29 I COMPLIANCEWITHBANKPOLICIES . .......................................... 29 vi ANNEXES Annex 1: Project Design Summary ..................................................................................... 30 Annex 2: Detailed Project Description.................................. ............................................. 37 Annex 3: EstimatedProject Costs ....................................................................................... 47 Annex 4: IncrementalCosts ................................................................................................ 48 Annex 5: Financial Summary.............................................................................................. 50 Annex 6: Procurement Arrangements ................................................................................. 51 Annex 7: Financial Management and Disbursement Arrangement .................................... 55 Annex 8: Project Processing Schedule ............................................................................... 56 Annex 9: Documents inthe Project File ............................................................................. 57 Annex 10: Statement of Loans and Credits........................................................................... 58 Annex 11: Country at a Glance ............................................................................................. 60 Annex 12: Terms o f Reference ............................................................................................. 62 A. National GHGInventories A 1 . Update o f GHGinventories................................................................................. 62 A.2 Greenhouse gas emission trend analysis ............................................................. 64 A.3 National Energy Balances ................................................................................... 65 B. Vulnerabilitv Assessment and InstitutionalStrengthening for Adaptation B.1 Vulnerability o f the coastal zone ......................................................................... 67 B.2 Vulnerability of the Pampa Bonaerense ............................................................. 70 B.3 Vulnerability of agriculture production inthe Pampa Hlimeda .......................... 73 B.4 Vulnerability of water resources inthe Litoral-Mesopotamia............................. 77 B.5 Vulnerability of the Patagonia............................................................................ 79 B.6 Overall socio-economic impacts of climate change ............................................ 81 B.7 Vulnerability of energy system and energy infrastructure .................................. 82 B.8 National Adaptation Programand regional adaptation plans .............................. 83 B.9 Estimates of regional climate change scenarios through Regional Climate Models ................................................................................................................. 84 C. NationalMitigation Program C.1 Energy Efficiency Measures (EEM) programs.................................................... 86 (2.2 Transportation sector ........................................................................................... 89 (2.3 Renewable energy (RE)....................................................................................... 92 C.4 Carbon sequestration ........................................................................................... 95 C.5 Methane emissions .............................................................................................. 98 D. Promotionof Public Awareness D.l Training program............................................................................................... 100 D.2 Promotional campaign....................................................................................... 101 vii E. Drafting of SecondNationalCommunication to UNFCCC 102 F. Project Management F.1 Project coordinator ............................................................................................ 103 F.2 Technical expert incharge of mitigation........................................................... 104 F.3 Technical expert incharge of vulnerability....................................................... 105 F.4 Technical assistant............................................................................................. 106 F.5 Procurement expert............................................................................................ 107 Annex 13: GHGEmissions Inventories 1990. 1994. and 1997 .......................................... 108 Annex 14: Work Done for the FirstCommunicationandWork Proposedfor the Second Communication................................................................................................. 111 ... V l l l ARGENTINA Enabling Activity for Second National Communication of Argentine Republic to the Convention on Climate Change ProjectAppraisalDocument LatinAmerica andCaribbeanRegion LCSEN Date: November 17,2003 Team Leader: Juan L6pez-Silva Sector Managermirector: JohnRedwood CountryManagermirector: Axel van Trotsenburg ProjectID: PO78143 FocalArea: G Sector(s): Other environment (100%) Theme(s): ENVIRONMENT ProjectFinancingData [ ]Loan [ 3 Credit [XIGrant [ ]Guarantee [ ]Other: For Loans/Credits/Others: Amount (US$m):$1.14 Borrower/Recipient: Fundaci6nBariloche Responsibleagency: MINISTRY OFFOREIGNAFFAIRS Address: Ministry of ForeignAffairs, BuenosAires, Argentina Contact Person: RafilAlfred0 EstradaOyuela Tel: Fax: Email: eoy@mrecic.gov.ar FY FY04 FY05 FY06 Annual 0.70 0.40 0.04 Cumulative 0.70 1.10 1.14 IProjectimplementationperiod: Two years 1 A. PROJECTDEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE 1. Project Development Objective: (see Annex 1) The primary objective of this project is to support enabling activities for the preparation of the Second National Communication of the Argentine Republic to the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This Communication will enable the Government of Argentina (GOA) to satisfy requirements under Art.12.1 of the UNFCCC, in accordance with decisions 10KP.2, 11KP.2 and 8KP.5, and following the new guidelines for the preparation of National Communications accorded in CP.8. The Government of Argentina submitted its First National Communication in 1997 and a revised version in 1999. This project will complement ongoing activities undertaken by the Government of Argentina to implement the UNFCCC requirements and consists of five major components. First, studies will be carried out to update and improve national inventories of greenhouse gases (GHG). Second, the project will assess the vulnerability of various ecosystems to climate change and will formulate possible adaptation strategies. To this end, studies will evaluate the impacts of climate change on: (a) coastal zones and water resources indifferentregions of the country; (b) agricultural production; (c) precipitation patterns; (d) energy system and infrastructure; and (e) socio-economic sector. Third, the project will contribute to the formulation of a National Mitigation Program, which will include measures to reduce national emissions of GHG. Fourth, activities will be conducted around the country to promote capacity building and public awareness. Finally, the fifth component of the project will assist inthe drafting of the SecondNational Communication to the UNFCCC. 2. Global Objective: (see Annex 1) The global environmental objective of this project is to contribute to the development of country policies that will be a part of global efforts to mitigate climate change. This objective will be achieved by financing incremental activities aimed at assessing the vulnerability of Argentine ecosystems to climate change and contributingto the development of a national mitigation plan aimed at reducing current levels of GHGemissions. 3. Key Performance Indicators: (see Annex 1) Key outcome-level performance indicators will be used to monitor the progress towards the achievement of the development objectives for each project component, as follows: 1. Updating of national greenhousegas inventories: (a) Updatednational inventory of GHG emissions and analysis of emission trends of major polluting sectors duringthe period from 1990to 2000 (b) Local GHG emissions factors (c) Harmonized energy balances 2. Vulnerabilitystudies (a) Assessment of vulnerability of various ecosystems to climate change. Indicators include assessment of the impacts of climate change on the coastline of the Rio de la Plata, and on the water resourcesof the Litoral-Mesopotamia, the Pampa Hdmeda, and Patagonia (b) Assessment of the vulnerability of agricultural productivity on the Pampa Hzimeda to climate change (c) Assessment of socio-economic impacts of climate change on the various ecosystems (d) Proposal of national and regional mitigation and adaptation strategies to reduce the negative impacts of climate change (e) Assessment of the impact of climate change on the energy sector (f) Model simulations of future climate scenarios 2 3. National Mitigation Program Development of National Mitigation Program, which includes initiatives to reduce GHG emissions through energy efficiency, energy savings, substitution of fuel and energy sources, changes in transportation modes, and carbon sequestration and substitution programs 4. Promotion of public awareness Development of national pilot plan to promote public awareness to the global impacts of climate change, as well as adaptation and mitigation strategies 5. Drafting of SecondNational Communication (a) Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (b) Development o f institutional framework and procedures necessary to continue updating o f GHG inventories, preparing National Communications and carrying out public awareness activities. Other indicators that reflect the achievement of project objectives include: (a) Number o f government agencies that include climate change-related initiatives in their working plans (b) Development o f adaptation and mitigation initiatives funded with contributions from all Ministries (c) Number o f researchinitiatives and academic programs inareas related to climate change (d) Number o f public campaigns that aim at protecting areas most vulnerable to climate change (e) Agencies more capable o f preparing subsequent communications. B. STRATEGIC CONTEXT 1. Sector-Related Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) Goal Supported By The Project: Date of latest CAS: June 27, 2000 Document Number: R2000-0116 [IFC/R2000-0120] Date of discussionfor CASProgress Report: July 19,2001 Document Number: R2001-0127 [IFC/R2001-0155] The 2000 CAS highlights the need for Argentina to take measures aimed at promoting sustainable growth. It recognizes pollution reduction as a strategy to attain sustainable growth and measures performance in this regard in terms of GOA'S fulfillment o f its commitments to global environmental agreements. One such agreement i s the UNFramework Convention on Climate Change -UNFCCC. The communication will report on strategies, plans, and programs in place to implement the Convention's objectives: a) the stabilization of concentrations of GHG in the atmosphere at levels that would prevent dangerous interference with the sustainability of economic activities; b) the promotion of adequate impact assessment of climate change in ecological and economic systems; and c) support of adaptation policies that address changes inclimate already observed, as well as those contemplated for the next century. In general terms, and outside the context of the UNFCCC, the project fits well with the Bank's overall Energy and Environmental Strategies, since issues related to climate change are relevant to both sectors. The 2000 CAS further identifies management o f water resources as a development priority for Argentina, with financial support envisioned for funding of projects in water supply and sanitation, ground water management, flood control, drainage, and irrigation. In addition to complying with international commitments, the 2000 CAS further stresses the need to expand the use of GEF resources to complement nationalprograms and to buildcapacity on global issues. It identifies continued building of the GEF pipeline, including global warming objectives, as an integral feature of its strategy. A new CAS will be presentedto the Board of Executive Directors on December 18,2003. The objectives of this project continue to be inline with the sector priorities outlined inthe new CAS. 3 2. Main Sector Issues And Government Strategy: Sector Issues 2.1 Climate Change, Sources and Impact The projected impacts,of climate change, or in more specific terms of global warming, include increasing temperatures, sea level rise, and changing precipitation patterns. Although there i s a significant level of uncertainty concerning the causes of climate change, it has been recognized that global climatic patterns have changed considerably during the last century. It i s also well known that the impacts of severe climatic events have become increasingly damaging to natural resources and infrastructure, as well as threatening to human life. The concentration o f greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has been increasing steadily for the past century. It i s nowadays widely accepted that GHG are, at least to some extent, responsible for the global warming trend. A reversal of this trend i s therefore related to the management and the abatement of greenhouse gas pollution, both of which depend on the type o f source of the emissions. Increasing emissions o f GHG mainly result from: 1) combustion of fossil fuels (i.e. oil, coal) that occur, among others, during power generation and industrial and transportation activities; 2) reduction o f carbon sinks through, for example, deforestation activities; and 3) methane emissions originating from organic matter decomposition related to human activities. Studies have shown that the capacity to adapt to relatively short-term climatic change i s not distributed evenly amongst different societies and that in fact, the impacts of climatic change are more severely felt in developing countries, amongst the poorest fractions of the population. Furthermore, the ability to manage and to control GHG emissions and pollution, and therefore the ability to reduce the impact of climate change, requires an institutional, technological and financial framework that may not exist in these countries. 2.2 GHGEmissionsinArgentina The 1997 inventory o f GHG emissions revealed that between 1990-1994 and 1994-1997, GHG emissions increased by 13.7% and 6.2% respectively, a cumulative increase of 20.7%. (Figures do not include emissions from changes in crop management or from silviculture). The economic context during 1990-97 can be used to justify trends o f emission production. Indeed, in 1990 the economy was undergoinga deep recession. A period o f rapid recovery started in 1992, manifested by increasing economic activity and consequently rising GHG emissions. 1997 marked the peak o f economic activity for the decade, but the decreasing trend of emissions was already evident. A combination of factors contributed to this decreasing trend o f emissions, of which the most influential were: i)increased power generation from clean energy sources; ii)replacement of public transportation fleet with cleaner vehicles; and iii) reduction o f total heads of cattle with a resulting decrease inenteric emissions. GHG emissions inArgentina mainly originate from: 1) combustion of fossil fuels, consistently releasing approximately 90% of the COzemissions and around 42% o f the total GHG emissions o f the country in 1997 (power generation (30%) and transport (33%) account for most o f the energy-related GHG emissions); 2) enteric fermentation, releasing 62% of methane emissions and 19% of total GHG emissions in 1997 (mainly cattle); and 3) management of agricultural land, releasing 95% o f total nitrous oxide emissions and 21% o f total GHG emissions in 1997. Annex 13 contains a detailed breakdown of GHGemissions. 2.2.1 National circumstancesand impacts of climate change A series of physicalcharacteristics and of cultural traits make Argentina particularly vulnerable to climate change. The following sections provide brief descriptions of national priority issues that need to be addressed in order to reduce potential impacts o f climate change. 2.2.1.1 Water resources The wide range of climatic conditions in Argentina result in complex water resource management issues. 4 Argentina i s repeatedly subjected to periods of extreme drought in the dry regions and to inundations in the more humid zones. It i s to be expected that the various regions have considerably different water resource issues concerning their surface water bodies, groundwater supplies, and irrigation practices. 2.2.1.2 Landresources The lack of effective land managementpolicies in Argentina is a contributing factor to the severity of the impacts from climate change-related events. Unsustainable land use (e.g. substitution of pastures for crops), soil degradation (e.g. salinization) and deforestation contribute to the degradation of the natural vegetation cover, a factor that ultimately leads to erosion. Erosion of extensive productive areas i s not only a devastating economic event, but in the context of this study, it increases the vulnerability of a region to the damaging effects of extreme climatic incidents 2.2.1.3 Humansettlements Inadequate zoning regulations in urban areas of Argentina and the incomplete access to water and sanitation services are partly to blame for the expansion of the cities towards flood-prone areas. Settlements grow along the banks of major waterways, without consideration to the risks of flooding. The infrastructure is, in many cases, precarious, aggravating the extent of the damages andthe number of people affected duringflooding events. 2.2.2 Integrationof climate changeintonationalplanning Despite the heightened level of attention given to climate change issues in international circles, linkages between the facts regarding climate change and preventive decision-making in Argentina remain weak at national, provincial, district, and private levels. Contributing factors include the prevalent dichotomy between policy and science, a weak institutional capacity, and the lack of collaboration between public and private institutions on climate change issues. Efforts have been made by government agencies to sponsor interactions between private and public sectors on issues related to climate change, such as promotional activities, workshops and studies sponsored by the Secretaria de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sustentable (SayDS). However, the severity of the impacts of climatic events of the past two decades have emphasized the need to strengthen linkages between climate change issues and national planning. The contributionto the development of a National Mitigation Program, the design of a national pilot plan to promote public awareness to adaptation and mitigation strategies, and the development of an institutional framework to carry out public awareness activities are critical to encouraging the formulation of priority plans for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. GovernmentStrategy 2.3 FirstNational Communicationto the UNF'CCC The Government of Argentina submitted its First National Communicationto the UNFCCC in 1997. The project was led by the Secretaria de Ciencia, Tecnologia, e Innovacidn Productiva (SECyT) and the executing agency was the Programa de las Naciones Unidaspara el Desarrollo (PNUD). Theareas coveredby the study and the mainfindings are summarized as follows: 1. An inventory of GHG was compiled, following IPCC procedures 2. The overall vulnerability of water resourcesto climate change was investigated. It was concluded that: i.AdecreaseintheamountofprecipitationintheSouthernConewouldreducetheavailable volumes of water usedfor irrigation inthe arid and semi-arid regions of the country ii.Higherprecipitations wouldinturnincreasetherisks offlooding andinundations inthe humidregions of the country. 3. The vulnerability to climate change of two specific ecosystemswas evaluated: i.Oasesbetween29"Sand 36's -TheseOasesare locatedat the foothills ofthe arid provinces of La Rioja, Sun Juan and Mendoza, the water resources of which depend on snow melt from Andean mountain tops. Increasing temperatures resulting from climatic 5 changes would decrease minimum levels of snow cover and would therefore have impacts on summer meltingconditions. ii.Oceanlevelsalong theArgentine coastline-Two areaswerefoundtobeatriskfrom flooding due to increasing ocean levels: a) Bahia of Samborombdn, innorthem BuenosAires province, where economic losses would be significant; and b) Bahia Blanca and the Rio Colorado delta inthe south of Buenos Aires province. 4. The vulnerability to climate change of the following two economic sectors was considered: i.Agriculture-Itwasfoundthatcropswouldbemoreaffectedthanlivestockactivities. The net impact on crops andpastureswas found to be negative. ii.Energy-Areductioninthevolumesofwaterfromsnowmeltwasfoundtohavesignificant repercussions for the electricity sector. Indeed, many hydroelectric facilities in the north- eastern region of the country operate using water from local rivers, the flow of which i s dependent of snow melt. 5. Finally, the impact of climate change on public health was investigated, and results showed that higher temperatures could lead to increases in the number of the vectors of certain diseases (e.g. dengue, malaria, etc.) GHG inventories were updated in 1999, and a revised version of the FirstCommunication was submitted to the UNFCCC. 2.4 MitigationStrategies Several projects have been implemented that have contributed to mitigating air pollution by the Argentine energy sector, which have placed the country in the forefront of clean energy production. These include: 1) the construction and operation of several hydropower plants and two nuclear power plants; 2) the replacement of coal and petroleum derivatives by natural gas for thermoelectric plants; 3) the promotion of compressed natural gas (CNG) as motor vehicle fuel; 4) the adoption of specific regulations to abate gas-flaring; and 5) the reduction of natural gas flaring at its source. There have been pilot or sporadic measures implemented such as: (1) initiatives of co-generation of electricity and heat in industry; (2) programs for energy-efficient drying of seeds and crops; (3) programs of efficient street lighting; (4) energy saving initiatives in public and commercial buildings; and (5) energy-saving residential heating systems. In spite of the fact that these measures present large saving potentials, they were not supported by policy initiatives and other measures aimed to overcome existing marketbarriers and, consequently, were not adoptedby either energy suppliers or consumers. In addition, GOA has recently adopted a new set of policies aimed at reducing future GHG emissions, which include: 1) the promotion of wind and solar energy through programs of temporary subsidies that have been recently enacted as national law; 2) the promotion of co-generation projects and Rational Use of Energy (RUE) programs; 3) the implementation of the Efficient Lighting Initiative (ELI), an IFC-GEF project developed through ENDESA-ENDESUR (Argentina) and ELECNOR (Ped), which promotes the sale of efficient lamps to residential users around the country; and 4) the implementation of the Renewable Energies in the Rural Market project (PERMER), supported by the World Bank and GEF, aimed to supply modem energy basedon renewable sources to dispersedrural populations. Efforts have also been made to reduce emissions from deforestation. Several afforestation and reforestation programs are developing increasing interest, particularly within the framework of the Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean DevelopmentMechanism (CDM). Technical cooperation programs, from Germany and France for instance, have evaluated the participation of NGOs and other institutions in projects that would improve carbon-sink capabilities in Argentina. The SAyDS i s actively participating in CDM initiatives and has establishedthe O$cina Argentina del Mecanismo para un Desarrollo Limpio (OAMDL), with the purpose of promoting projects that can be implemented within the context of the CDM. The OAMDL was amongst the first non-Annex ICDM offices to formulate detailed guidelines for project preparation and is conducting a series of workshops to advance in the formulation of LULUCF-CDM projects. 6 In 1999, with the support of the Government of Canada and of the World Bank, the GOA publishedits first National Strategy Study (NSS). These types of studies promote market-basedinstruments for GHG reductions within the framework of the CDM. The results of the first NSS helped Argentina define its position in global climate change negotiations. A second NSS is currently being conducted, funded by the Bank, with the main purpose of identifying a portfolio of GHG mitigation projects that can be implemented through the CDM. This activity is tightly related to the development of the National Mitigation Programunder the presentproject Initiatives currently existingfor the achievement of the Convention 2.5 Monitoring Systems The occurrence of flooding events related to climate change led to the establishment of Inter-Province Boards, which are responsible for the implementation of coordinated measures to address adverse effects of heavy precipitation and flood events. Other mechanisms have been institutedat the national level to coordinate responses to emergency situations. The Sistema de Alerta Hidroldgico del Rio Paranti, for example, is managed from the Znstituto Nacional del Agua (INA), and is charged with the monitoring and prediction of impacts from extreme climatic events 2.6 Programs Related to Public Awareness Outreach activities to promote public awareness of climate change issues within Argentina are routinely conducted by both public and private sector entities as well as by national and international NGOs. These activities are mainly conducted by the SAyDS and the Federal Council on the Environment (COFEMA). During the last two years, the SAyDS organized several workshops, seminars and public audiences on climate change issues. Other Secretariats, such as Science and Technology, Agriculture, Energy, Transport, and Industry frequently participate in these activities. On the international front, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was involved in discussions on membership of global agreements on climate change. For example, the Ministrytook an active role in the negotiation and adoption of the Kyoto Protocol and the elaboration of its implementation plan in Argentina, OECD environmental issues, and the bodies derived from the international and regional agreements dealing with the Global Change Issues. The Ministry established the Expanded Working Group on Environmental Issues (Grupo de Trabajo Ampliado sobre Cuestiones Ambientales - GTACA) in early 1989, which meets regularly to inform national stakeholders of relevant international discussions. The GTACA consolidates stakeholder inputs anddefines anationalpositionon issuesunder debate at international fora. 3. Sector Issues to be Addressed by the Project and Strategic Choices Constraints to the implementation of project activities A series of issues exist, as described inthe following sections, which may difficult the implementation of activities associated with the Second Communication. These constraints include technical, financial and institutional issues that need to be addressedin order to guarantee the adequate execution of the project. Provisions have been taken and incorporated in the various components, to overcome problems raised by these issues. 3.1 Lack of Institutional Capacity to Produce GHGInventories and Upgrade Methodologies Information and methodologies for producing GHG emission inventories have been limited to NGOs and universities hiredon an ad-hoc basis. Local factors of emission are typically not available and therefore international factors are used and adapted to local conditions. The project will help to institutionalize practices for data collection and processing to maintain updated GHG emission inventories. Also, the project will coordinate and harmonize methodologies to produce the GHG inventories and energy balances. 7 3.2 Lack of Coordinationof InfrastructureInvestment Plans with Measures for Adaptation to Climate Change Cross-sectoral coordination is needed to minimize investment costs, as rising water levels generally require sound land-use policies and practices not only at the preventive but also at the corrective levels. Settlements and human activities in general require adequate regulation by all affected sectors so that climate change effects can be minimized. 3.3 Lack of Institutional Coordination on Policies, Programs, and Projects Related to Mitigationof GHGEmissions A set of strategies needs to be developed to reduce GHG emissions through energy efficiency, energy savings, substitution of fuel and energy sources, changes in transportation modes, and carbon sequestration and substitution programs. A National Mitigation Program (Nh4P) will help drive institutional coordination at all levels. 3.4 Low Electricity Prices and Institutional Weakness for Promoting Energy Efficiency Measures Without a program in place to promote energy efficiency, considering the relatively clean production of energy, and with very low energy prices, the incentives to adopt clean technologies are few. Previous experience in Argentina has shown that in the absence of a solid institutional framework, energy efficiency, regardless of its economic benefits, is not perceived as a priority by energy consumers. Any NMP that attempts to reduce emissions from the energy sector by promoting energy efficiency must do so by introducing a balanced combination of market oriented EE programs, supporting policies and regulations, public dissemination activities, and capacity-building activities aimed at main stakeholders. Initiatives that will be considered to overcome barriers to energy efficiency include: (a) development of a national EE strategy and design of enhanced EE policies and regulations, (b) implementation of public awareness programs to support organized participation of civil society and key stakeholders; (c) support to emergent Energy Services Companies (ESCOs); (d) establishment of a standardsand labelingprogram for appliances, equipment, and building envelopes; and (e) capacity building activities aimed to support implementingagencies, regulators and policy makers. 3.5 Lackof Incentivesto PromoteRenewableEnergy As with energy efficiency, low energy prices provide a disincentive to new ventures in this field. The NMP needs to introduce mechanisms that promote the use of renewable energy resources. Examples of these mechanismsinclude: (a) temporary and targeted subsidiesto new technologies; (b) tax deductions to companies at the development stage; (c) regulatory intervention to ensure the presence of renewable technologies in the energy market; (d) technical assistance for fuel switching (e.g. biomass); and (e) technology transfer to increasethe availability of suitable equipment. 3.6 Lack ofa CoordinatedTransportationPlanLinkingEnvironmentandLand-UsePolicies Initiatives that may be considered to promote modal changes in travel behavior include: (a) construction of segregated bus lanes; (b) construction of bicycle pathways; (c) education and promotion initiatives; (d) monitoring of activities to inform users of the benefits of the mitigation programs; and (e) regulatory intervention in freight shipping to promote changes in distribution of transportation modes (e.g. trucks, navigation, railroad) 3.7 Lack of Governmental Commitment for Long-Term Plans that Favor Forestry and Bio- EnergyProjects Programs that would increase the development of carbon sequestration projects are: (a) increased promotion of the environmental benefits of the programs and of the financial gains that may be generated from CDM-funded projects; and (b) government programs that support the formulation and promotion of CDM-funded projects addressingsustainableforestry and bio-energy . 8 C. PROJECTDESCRIPTIONSUMMARY 1. ProjectComponents:(see Annexes 1& 2) The five project componentspresentedin this section were planned suchto result in the preparation of the Second National Communication to the UNFCCC, in accordance to the new guidelines for the preparation of National Communications accorded in CP.8. The communication will be structured according to the categories set out in the GEF Operational Guidelines for Expedited Funding of Second National Communications from Non-Annex IParties. Each sub-componentrepresents a study or activity, all of which have been conceived as steps towards the implementation of the Convention in Argentina. These include the update of GHG inventories, contributions to the development of both adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change, public awareness campaigns, and the drafting of the Second Communication. USub-component a. Updating of National GHG 0.40 50.00 Inventories and development of emission factors .. m GHG Inventory 0.320 0.20 EmissionFactors 0.08 Comparative analysis 0.07 Energy Balance harmonization 0.05 b. Vulnerability assessment and 0.448 0.51 59.61 institutional strengthening for adaptation Vulnerability of coastal zone' 0.103 0.08 Assessment of vulnerability 0.05 of water resourcesin the PampaBonaerense's Assessment of climate 0.05 change impact on watersheds inthe Litoral-Mesopotamia Agric. Production in the 0.239 0.10 Pampa2Hu'meda Assessment of Oasis region 0.106 Vulnerability Assessment of impact from 0.07 rainfall increases in Patagonia Economic Impact Assessment 0.05 to help formulate Adaptation Plan (stage 11) Assessment of vulnerability 0.04 of energy system Design of Adaptation 0.04 measures(stage 11) The FNC coveredfrom Samborombdnto Bahia Blanca. The SNC will cover the GranBuenosAires areaandthe Parand Delta, The SNC will updateprevious assessment, consideringthe changesto transgenic soja. 9 iNationalComunicat Component/Sub-compt . I Climate change projections 0.040 from RegionalCirculation Models 0.03 :. Formulation of National Mitigation 21.34 0.215 61.43 Program . Assessmentof EEM 0.040 opportunities Assessment of opportunities 0.060 ... for energy efficiency in transport Assessment of renewable 0.020 0.05 0.040 energy technologies Opportunitiesfor CO2 0.07 0.045 sequestration Assessmentof opportunitiesto 0.05 0.030 reduce enteric methane emissions d. Promotion of public awareness 0.134 8.17 0.105 78.36 0 Communicationcampaign 0.090 0.070 0 Training and Symposia 0.044 0.035 e. Drafting of Second National 0.020 1.22 0.019 95.OO Comminication to the UNFCCC f. ProiectManagement and 0.061 0.200 12.12 0.176 88.00 Wo"rkshops - g. Audit 0.030 0.030 100.00 TOTAL 1.000 69.34 Further descriptions of all the activities included in each project component are included in Annex 2. Preliminary terms of reference, with specific information about objectives, activities, and expectedresults for each of the studies to be funded by the project, are includedinAnnex 12. 1.1 NationalGHGInventories The main objectives of this component are to upgrade national inventories of GHG emissions and to develop indicators for evaluation of national emission trends. The following four tasks will be completed as part of this component: (a) GHG inventory update, which will consist of a methodologicalrevision and update of 1997 inventories with data from the year 2000. National GHG inventories will be estimated and reported using the Revised 1996Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelinesfor National Greenhouse Gas Inventories as specified in the new guidelines for the preparation of National Communications accordedin CP.8; (b) comparative analysis of previous and current GHG inventories, in order to identify current trends of GHG emissions and main drivers of their changing patterns; (c) development of own emission factors; and (d) harmonization of National Energy Balances with GHG EmissionInventories, which involves the evaluation of modifications neededby existing National Energy Balancesin order to make them compatible with Inventory Emission Source Categories (as defined by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC). 1.2 VulnerabilityAssessment andInstitutionalStrengtheningfor Adaptation This componentcomplementsprevious work and consists of vulnerability studies to assess the impacts of 10 climate change on the water resources of humid region of the country, where the large majority of the population is concentrated and where most of the economic activity of the country occurs. These studies will give a pathway to the future development of a long-term adaptation plan. Specifically, studies will be conducted in the following areas: (a) the north western section of the Rio de la Plata coastline; (b) the Gran Buenos Aires region, where the variable water levels of the Rio de la Plata and the seasonal flooding of the Parana' river cause persistent flooding and inundations; (c) the Pampa Hcimeda, where seasonal wet-dry cycles cause flooding and drought, respectively, and where the exploitation of ground water resources i s not sustainable; (d) the Litoral-Mesopotamia region, where precipitation-induced flooding of the major rivers i s a widespread and recurrent event; and (e) Patagonia, one of the arid regions of the country. 1.2.1 Vulnerabilityofthe coastalzone The study will assess the relative impact of climate change and human action on the degradation of the coastline of the Rio de la Plata. In particular, focus will be put on assessing the impacts on the coastline from: (a) changes in the river's water level caused by climate change; (b) flooding of the Rio Parana';and (c) the expansion of the Parana' delta. All of these phenomena are likely to cause significant damages to human settlements that have grown along the shores of the estuary. The socio-economic consequences of these events and their repercussions on the development of the region will also be evaluated. 1.2.2 Vulnerabilityof thePampaBonaerense This study is directed at evaluating the impact of climate change on the water resources of the Pampa Hcimeda. The following aspects will be considered: (a) characterization of the region's water resources (surface water and groundwater) to precipitation fluctuations; (b) evaluation of the effectiveness of flood protection infrastructure existing in the area, including future effects if higher tides; (c) assessment of the level of soil degradation in the region; (d) evaluation of socio-economic impact of climate change on the Pampa Hcimeda ; and (e) suggestions of measures to mitigate damages and to adapt to future climatic changes. 1.2.3 Vulnerabilityof agriculture productioninthePampa Hhmeda This study will analyze the effects of climate change on the productivity and the vulnerability of crops in the region and erosion in the higher part of the relevant tributary basins. The study will: (a) evaluate the effects of the new measures on the drainage capacity and soil degradation potential of the region; (b) assess whether the current productivity levels of the region can be maintained under expected climatic conditions; (c) estimate the socio-economic impact of changes in productivity; and (d) propose mitigation and adaptation strategies. 1.2.4 Vulnerabilityof the water resourcesintheLitoraLMesopotamiu The objectives of the study are: (a) to determine how climate change, and more specifically higher precipitation rates are likely to affect the major rivers of the area; (b) to estimate the extent of the damages that may occur as a result of the changes; (c) to determine the socio-economic impact of the flooding on the region and the effects on its economic growth; and (d) to propose mitigation and adaptation strategiesto decrease future damage. 1.2.5 VulnerabilityofthePatagonia This study will be conductedto assess the potential impacts of climate change inthe region, inparticular: (a) determining how the surface and groundwater resourcesmay be affected; (b) proposing mitigation and adaptation strategiesto reduce impacts from climate change; and (c) assessingthe socio-economic impact climatic changes may have on Patagonia and on regional development. 1.2.6 Overallsocio-economicimpactsof climatechange One of the objectives of the vulnerability assessments conducted i s to make predictions of how the impacts of climate change on naturalresourcesmay affect the socio-economic development of the regions 11 in question. This study will compile results from all the studies performed for the Second National Communication, as well as those from the First National Communication, and will help inthe assessment of social and economic impacts of climate change. This involves: (a) compiling baseline scenarios (i,e. present vulnerability of a system to a given climatic condition); (b) making assumptions on adaptation capacity to climatic impacts; (c) makingprojections of future climate scenarios; (d) buildingconsensus on potential policy scenarios and courses of action in response to climatic conditions; and (e) providing support for the estimation of the costs andthe social implications of the various scenarios. 1.2.7 Vulnerability of the energy system and energyinfrastructure This study will provide support for the evaluation o f (a) how climate change affects the electric generating capacity of the country, considering the impact of snowpack reduction; (b) how climate change affects the overall energy supply; (c) how climate change will affect the demand sector; and (d) the adequacy of the existing energy infrastructure to supply future energy demands given the potential impacts of climate change on the sector. 1.2.8 PreliminaryNationalAdaptationProgramand regional adaptationplans This activity will draw from the results of the other studies with the objective of incorporating adaptive capacity to climate change into national and regional development plans. Based on assessments from previous components, this component will contribute to the development of a Preliminary National Adaptation Program to: (a) identify climatic vulnerabilities; (b) help in the identification the most cost effective and socially acceptable measures to prevent, or to adapt to, the negative impacts of climate change; (c) give support in the identification of adequate policy measures and institutional framework to implement the measures; and (d) contribute to proposals of resource allocation for the implementationof adaptation programs. 1.2.9 Estimatesof regionalclimate change scenariosthrough RegionalClimateModels The focus of this activity will be to support the generation of regional climate change projections using high-resolution atmospheric circulation models. Models for Argentina have beendeveloped at the Centro de Znvestigaciones del Mar y la Atmdsfera (CIMA I CONICET I UBA) and the Centro Nacional Paragdnico (CENPAT / CONICET). Projections will cover the period from 1970 to 2050 and will be based on a "business as usual" emission scenario. The information obtained will include predictions of local circulation pattems and estimates of temperature and precipitation scenarios. This information will subsequently be used in the assessment of the vulnerability of various regions to climate change and in the planningof mitigation and adaptation strategies. 1.3 Formulationof NationalMitigationProgram(NMP) A NMP will be formulated, which will include proposals for measures aimed at reducing national GHG emissions. The NMP will help identify opportunities for mitigation of emissions through measures that promote energy efficiency, energy savings, and renewable energy sources, through programs aimed at reducing emissions in the transportation sector, and at promoting carbon sequestrationand substitution programs. It will also consider options to reduce methane emissions from both waste and enteric fermentation. The NMP will primarily concentrate on identifying measures aimed at removing currently existingbarriers to these types of initiatives. 1.3.1 Energyefficiencymeasures(EEM) The NMP will address current obstacles to the adoption of EEM, such as: (a) low prices of traditional sources of energy; (b) excess generating capacity; (c) lack of incentives for distributors; (d) absence of shared economic costs for EEM; (e) limited supply of energy efficient services; and (f) absence of regulatory and financial frameworks to promote energy conservation. The NMP will promote the introductionto programs that encourage energy efficiency and supporting regulation. This sub-component will: (a) provide support in the identification of energy efficiency measures that can be implemented as part of emission mitigation strategies; (b) contribute to the evaluation of the 12 applicability of EEM measures to the Argentine energy system; (c) assess the need for government support of EEMinitiatives; and(d) identify programs that can be implemented through the CDM. 1.3.2 Transportationsector The NMP will contribute to the promotion of measures that reduce GHG emissions from the transportation sector, focusing on reductions of travel demand and on increases in travel efficiency. Current barriers to these measures include, among others, consumer preferences and behaviors that are not in line with environmental concerns. Institutionalizedmeasures therefore need to be implemented to ensure the effectiveness of emission reduction initiatives. This study will: (a) update GHG emissions data from all segments of the transportation sector; (b) evaluate the impact of the economic crisis on emissions from the transportation sector; (c) assess the extent of regional and national emission mitigation strategies in the transportation sector; (d) evaluate the impact of recent infrastructure developments on GHG emissions; (e) perform cost-benefit analysis and feasibility studies of various types of emission reduction initiatives (e.g. modal shifts versus technological improvements) in all segments of the transportation sector; and (f) identify candidatecities where emission mitigation strategies may be implemented. 1.3.3 Renewableenergy(RE) The NMP will include provisions to promote the use of renewable energy sources, which are currently under-developed, in spite of their abundance and extensive potential. Obstacles that contribute to the limited use of RE in Argentina, including among others: (a) its competitive disadvantage relative to the electricity market; (b) a mismatch between demand and adequate supply locations; (c) constrained demand; and (d) financing barriers. The project will (a) identify potential emission mitigations through the development of renewable energy projects that can be implemented through the CDM; (b) promote capacity-building on issues related to the use of renewable energy; and (c) identify policy and regulatory options to facilitate the use of renewable energy, inparticularin areas without access to electricity grids. 1.3.4 Carbonsequestration A number of obstacles exist to the development of carbon sequestration and substitution projects, including: (a) the lack of suitable technical guidelines for the development of carbon sequestration and substitution projects; (b) the uncertainty of the international framework for monitoring and validation of LULUCF projects under the CDM; (c) the lack of technical and financial resources for the collection and interpretation of bio-energy data; and (d) the lack of specific norms and incentives for the implementation of actual carbon sequestration and substitution projects. This component will (i)provide support in the evaluation of carbon sequestration and substitution potential through LULUCF projects and policies; (ii) encourage capacity-building for the assessment of carbon sequestration and substitution potential from afforestation and reforestation projects; and (iii) identify carbon sequestration and substitution projects that could be implemented through the CDM. To that end, the study will help in the generation of information related to geo-referenced forest, classified according to their carbon sequestrationpotential, to potentialities for afforestation and reforestation, and to associated costs per additional sequestered carbon ton. Also, it will evaluate and assess on carbon sequestrationfactors. 1.3.5 Reductionof entericmethaneemissions The NMP will address the needto assess, and subsequently reduce, enteric methaneemissions from cattle in Argentina. Current enteric methane figures have been estimated using emission factors developed abroad, which may not be representative of local cattle raisingpractices and conditions. The objectives of this component of the NMP are: first, to make provisions to determine local enteric methane emission factors; second, to evaluate and adjust, if necessary, current national methane emission figures; and third, to develop programs for the reduction of methane emissions from enteric fermentation. 13 1.4 PromotionofPublicAwareness The objective of this component is to encourage the development of education plans and outreach programs centered on the issue of climate change. The program will consist of two major sub- components, as follows. 1.4.1 Trainingprogram The focus of this sub-component is to promote the development of training programs for government officials and general members of the community interested on climate change. The program seeks to provide authorities at the national and regional level with methodology and background on climate change issues. The program also aims at encouraging individual and collective civil actions that ultimately lead to reductions of GHG emissions and climate change impacts. It will be performed mainly through the preparation and dissemination of training information and the organization of workshops, seminars, web-based discussion groups and public audiences on climate change issues. These activities will be targeted at specific audiences such as public servants, members of the private sector, NGOs, academics, students, professionals, civil organizations, media personnel, civil society and community leadersto encourage exchanges of informationand collaborations. 1.4.2 Promotionalcampaign A promotional campaign will be organized to disseminate information on climate change, as well as to promote the activities of the training program. The objective of the campaign is to raise the level of awareness on the topic at a national level. Promotional material for all ages, consistent to that prepared for the training program, will be distributed around the country. A leading role of the Secretariat of Environment is expected. Other Secretariats, such as Science and Technology, Agriculture, Energy, Transport, and Industry will also participate inpromotionalactivities. 1.5 DraftingofSecondNationalCommunicationto UNFCCC This component addresses the actual generation of the SecondNational Communicationto the UNFCCC. The document will compile results from the various project components and other publicly available information, such as national statistics on population, social and cultural characteristics, economic indicators, and institutional settings. The Second National Communication will be drafted, translated if necessary, published, and ultimately distributed. 1.6 Project Management Project management be the responsibility of the Project Implementation Unit (PIU) that will be hosted at the Fundacio'n Bariloche (see Section E below). Periodic progress reports on all project components will be routinely evaluated to assess the adequate advance of the overall project. Four workshops have been projected with participationof all coordinators, experts, and assistantswith the objective o f (a) launching the project; (b) monitoring and evaluating progress; (c) exchanging information and results from the various subprojects, particularly the development of the NMP; and (d) emitting a final assessment on the outcome of the project. Lectures from experts have been envisioned as one additional method to verify advances in the completion of objectives. 2. Key Policy And Institutional Reforms Supported By The Project: Mainstreaming climate change into national planning. This project seeks to ensure that appropriate policies for adaptation and mitigation to climate change are incorporated into national planning. To this end, vulnerability assessments of several ecosystems and economic sectors will be conducted. Adaptation initiatives will subsequently be developed, and these will be integrated to the country's development plan. The project will produce a National Mitigation Plan, which will involve active participation of stakeholdersin its development and implementation. 14 Cross-sectoral Coordination. The project will strengthen coordination among the various institutions and groups dealing with climate change related studies, by the formation of a Steering Committee, which will include representatives from all relevant authorities and by a small group of recognized and prestigious individuals. This committee will have the last word not only with respect to the project implementation, but also to implement and monitor the national mitigation, and adaptation plans. Public awareness and behavioral changes. The project will strengthen institutional capacity in terms of promotingand sustaining public awareness and participation, as cultural and behavioral practices interms of rationaluse of energy, transport, water, and land will definitely contribute to mitigate climate change. 3. BenefitsAnd Target Population: Benefits 0 Strengthened institutional capacity to address climate change issues and to incorporate them into regular sector policy planning; 0 Improved knowledge about vulnerabilities to climate change in terms of water resources and productivity in different Argentine ecosystems and about the impact of anthropogenic activity on regional and global climate change; 0 Better knowledge about opportunities for mitigating the impacts of climate change and their associatedcosts; 0 Increased involvement of stakeholders through comprehensive public awareness and education programs; 0 Long-term local environmental benefits from sustainable practices related to energy consumption (less energy combustion, usage and exploitation), and water use (preventing land degradation, impairment of aquifer drainage, and flooding). These include protection of ecosystems that are vulnerable to climate change, improvedair quality among others. 0 Long-term global environmental benefits, namely climate change mitigation and conservation of biodiversity. TargetPopulation The primary beneficiaries of this project will be: 0 National and provincial governments, as their capacity for incorporating climate change dimensions into their planning will be strengthened, both interms of mitigation and adaptation responses; 0 Stakeholders, whose awareness about climate change impact will allow informed decisions relating housing, water and energy use, and productiveactivities; 0 Coastal and delta area communities and tourism interests directly affected by flooding, temperature changes, and sea levelrise; 0 General population from urban centers affected by air pollution and in particular vulnerable groups such as children and the elderly; 0 NGOs, members of the public, and academic institutions will benefit from additional training and information from project activities. 4. Institutional And Implementation Arrangements: 4.1 GrantRecipientandProjectImplementation The recipient of the grant will be the Fundacidn Bariloche (FB), which was selected for its trajectory, institutional capacity and experience related to climate change topics to execute the project. It was decided that an independent NGO could better achieve the project objectives without any institutional bias and independent from the constant political cycles present in Argentina. F B will not only compile the results from the different studies in order to produce the Second National Communication to the Convention on Climate Change, but it will also directly implement Component A (Update of GHG emissions inventory), given its experience and participation in previous inventories. All other studies will 15 be done through contracts to third parties, following the World Bank procurement procedures. 4.2 GeneralGuidance The execution of the project will be directed by a Steering Committee that will be created with representativesfrom the main federal authorities, as well as relevant members of academiaand the private sector. The Steering Committee is the link between the Funducidn Buriloche, the Government and stakeholders. Since the project involves strategic studies leading to the adoption of national policies, the Steering Committee i s necessary to ensure proper ownership, while keepingimplementationand financial responsibilities under FB's control. The functions of the Steering Committee will be to direct the planning, implementation, and monitoring stages of the project, by: (a) reviewing and definingterms of reference; (b) approving final structure of project documents; (c) overseeing the selection of consultants; (d) defining the procurement and implementation plans; (e) reviewing studies and implementation progress; and (f) setting strategic orientation for the project outputs. Representatives from the following government agencies, designated by the top official of each agency, are acting membersof the Steering Committee: 0 Secretariatof Environment and SustainableDevelopment, from the Ministryof Health 0 Ministry of ForeignAffairs, International Trade, and Worship 0 Secretariat of Science, Technology and Productive Innovation, from the Ministry of Education, Science andTechnology 0 Secretariatof Energy and Secretariatof Transportation from the Ministry of Federal Planning, Public Investment and Services 0 Under Secretariatof Water Resourcesfrom the Ministry of Federal Planning, Public Investment and Services 0 Secretariatof Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries, and Nutrition and Secretariat of Industry,Commerce and Small and MediumEnterprise from the Ministry of Economy and Production The President of the Steering Committee will be the Secretary of Environment and Sustainable Development. The Steering Committee will have a Managing Committee, formed by its President and by the representatives from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the secretariat of Science, Technology and Productive Innovation. The role of the managing committee i s to preside over the entire Committee, overseeingits course and actions. The Steering Committee will periodically report to the Secretariat of Foreign Affairs from Ministry of Foreign Affairs, International Trade and Worship, on progress accomplished in the preparation of the SecondCommunication. Likewise, the final version will be presented, by the Steering Committee, to the Ministryof Foreign Affairs, International Trade andWorship. 4.3 ProjectImplementationUnit (PIU) A Project Implementation Unit (PIU) will be establishedto carry out the different tasks associatedwith the implementation of the project. The PIU office will be located in the Institute of Geochronology and Isotopic Geology (INGEIS) of the Buenos Aires University (UBA). The PIU will provide logistical and administrative support both to the Steering Committee andto FB. The PIUwill also act as a link between the Steering Committee and the consultants contracted for the project studies. This unit will have a Project Coordinator, a procurement and contract analyst, two technical experts with knowledge in mitigation and vulnerability topics, and one generaltechnical assistant. 4.4. Procurement The PIU will be staffed with a procurement specialist who will be directly responsible for producing the Project's procurement documents and overseeingcontract processing. The Bank's Procurement Specialist (PS) has conducted a Procurement Capacity Assessment of the PIU. 16 Terms of reference for the PIUwere accordedduring the appraisal and negotiation mission that took place from December 9 to 11,2002. A satisfactory revised Procurement Planfor the first year of execution was a condition of effectiveness for the project, 4.5 FinancialManagement Within the FB, the PIU will maintain adequate financial management systems-including accounting, financial reporting, and auditing systems-to ensure that they can provide the Bank accurate and timely information regarding project resources and expenditures, in accordance with: (i)the Financial Accounting, Reporting and Auditing Handbook (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1995), (ii)the Guidelines and Terms of Reference for Audits of Projects with Financing by the World Bank in Latin America (World Bank, May 1999), and (iii) the Bank's Operational Policy (OP) and Best Practice (BP) 10.02, dated July 1996. A Financial Management Assessment of Fundacidn Bariloche was conducted by the Banks Financial Management Specialist (FMS). The terms of reference were agreed upon and results are expected to be available duringthe appraisal and negotiation mission scheduledfor December 9-11, 2002 4.6 Auditing The FB will maintain the records, accounts, files and project documentation, and will produce standard financial statements according to International Accounting Standards (IAS). Project operations will be audited on an annual basis following generally accepted auditing standards (compatible with IAS and satisfactory to the Bank) and procedures consistently applied, by an independent qualified auditor (based on applicable Bank guidelines). The audit and statements will be submittedto the Bank four months after the end of the fiscal year. A section providingdetails on the audit will be includedinthe Project Manual. 4.7 Fundaci6nBariloche The Fundacidn Bariloche was created in 1963, as a non-profit private organization engaged in scientific and economic research, and education. It is associated to the United Nations University (UNU); to UNESCO; to the International Federation of Institutes for Advanced Studies (IFIAS); and to the Association of Ibero-american Education Televisi6n (ATEI). The FB has ample experience in dealing with energy and environment, and in particular with climate change related topics. In 1990-91 participated in elaborating a regional document with UNDP and IADB in preparation for the Rio Summit. Later in 1994 participated with discussion papers for the Summit of the Americas. It has produced technical documents for GEF and participated in the making of the national GHG emissions inventories, undertaken for the FNC to the Parties to the Climate Change Convention, its revision in 1999, and in the World Bank study on Flexible Mechanisms established under the Kyoto Protocol. With programs in energy economics, and environment, the FB has a working relationship with prestigious international organizations suchas WRI, UNDP, CEPAL, IISD, RISO, and the European Union. In coordination with the RIS0 - UNEP Center, the Fundacidn Bariloche produced a study on the Economic Aspects of Greenhouse Effect Gas Mitigation, which examined methodological aspects and conceptual approaches to evaluation of mitigation actions. Within the same framework, the project entitled "Energy and the Environment in Argentina: Past and Future Evolution" was also developed by the FB for the RIS0 National Laboratory / UNEP and completed in March 1994. The project on EnvironmentalImpacts of the Latin American Energy System 1970 - 1990/ 1990 -2010, was carried out by FB for OLADE and completed inAugust 1993. There have beendifferent projects related to energy efficiency, both at domestic and the regional levels, including the Study on the Rational Use of Energy in Argentina, carried out by Fundacidn Bariloche within the framework of the COPED network, with partial financing from DGXVII / European Union. Another study, "Confronting Climate Change. Economic Priorities and Climate Protection in Developing Nations, Argentina Case Study", demonstrated that developing countries have taken significant steps to reduce GHG emissions with far fewer technological and capital resources than developed nations. This study was carried out with support from the National Environmental Trust and with the participation of a network of NGOs and academic institutesof several developing countries (including the FB). 17 D. PROJECTRATIONALE 1. Project Alternatives ConsideredAnd Reasons For Rejection Government Execution. An alternative to the project design was the implementation by the Government of Argentina, with the support of a third party financial agency. However, it was decided that the implementation of such a cross-sectoralproject would better be in an unbiased institution detached from the government. This would not only avoid inter-institutional friction but potential bias towards a particular set of policies or priorities defined by any of the governmental agencies. Also, the FB offers an alternative way to routing the resources through the federal budget, in view of the current financial and fiscal difficulties. Argentina i s contributing with in-kindcounterpart resources, and the use of an NGO also facilitates full disbursement(100%) of the approved GEF grant. Limited geographical coverage. The project is only focusing at some key geographical areas when studying vulnerabilities to climate change. The Pampa Hu'meda, the coastal zone south of Buenos Aires, the Litoral-Mesopotamia and Parana' Delta, and Patagonia are the areas to be studied which will complement studies in the Oases area undertaken by the Enabling Activity to prepare the First National Communication to UNFCCC. These areas were selected for their contribution to the federal GDP; other areas inthe country will be studiedinfuture projects. Of particular interest are the basins near the Andean range, where much economic activity depends on the melting of snow pack. Climate change has a great impact in the hydrologic balance in these areas, which also host relevant productive activities such as wine and fruits, and winter tourism. Regional vs Federal participation. Regional participation in project coordination was considered, but at the end it was decided that the Steering Committee should only include representatives of federal agencies, as obligations under UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol fall under the responsibilities and functions of national agencies.Nonetheless, regionalparticipationat the implementationlevel will be key to ensure proper institutional ownership and first hand data and information sources. [Note: Alternative project scope and designoptions and trade-offs.] 2. Major Related Projects Financed By The Bank And/or Other Development Agencies (Completed, Ongoing And Planned) Sector issue Project LatestSupervision(Form590)Ratings (Bank-fiincedprojectsonly) Bank-finmced Implementation Development Progress (IP) Objective (DO) UrbanDevelopment UrbanDevelopment El Nifio EmergencyFlood Project S S Environment Native Forests and ProtectedAreas Project Agriculture, Fishing, Forestry DevelopmentProject S S and Forestry Agriculture, Fishing, Provincial Agricultural DevelopmentProject S U and Forestry (PROSAP) Protectionof Ozone Reductionof Ozone Depleting Substances S S Layer Iproject Natural Resource IBiodiversity ConservationProject 1s 1s 18 Sector issue Project LatestSupervision(Form590)Ratings ~ (Bank-financed projects only) Bank-financed Lmplementation Development Progress(IP) Objective (DO) Management Environment PollutionManagement U U Renewable Energy RenewableEnergy in RuralMarkets U S (PERMER) Efficient Lighting Initiative (ELI) Country Study on Country Study ClimateChange (UNDP) Linkages to World Bank Por~olio The only Bank projects financed with GEF resources under the Climate Change Operational Programs are PERMER and ELI (IFC project). PERMER provides rural areas with reliable electric supply in a sustainable manner, using renewable sources (where feasible) in order to reduce Argentina's dependence on fossil fuels; the project also aims at removing market barriers to application, implementation, and dissemination of renewable energy sources. The province of Jujuy, for instance, was one of the first in which PERMER began implementation. The worlds first and most advanced rural off-grid concessionaire began providing rural off-grid electricity services to Jujuy in 1995. The concessionaire now serves a total of 3,050 rural customers, 1,333 of these with individual or collective photo-voltaic systems. The initial success of PERMER however, has been slowed down considerably given the current economic difficulties of the country. Studies involving the availability of markets for renewable energy, which were planned components of the project, have for instance not yet begun. The RE and EE studies to be conducted as part of the Second National Communication will therefore be used to produce an initial diagnostic of the RE market in Argentina. Results from these studies will later be used as a baseline for more specific characterizations envisioned by the PERMER. Coordination between energy experts from the two studies has been in effect, ensuring that results produced by the Second Communication are compatible with the objectives of the PERMER. ELI is a private sector project, which promotes the growth of markets for energy-efficient lighting technologies, aiming at reducing energy costs and resulting GHG emissions. The response to ELI- promotedprojects in Argentina has beenvery positive and includes, among others, the creation of the first ESCOs, the participation of electricity distribution companies in DSMprograms, and the development of educational programs that promote energy efficiency. Forestry projects are directly linked to the net emissions of GHG, as forests affect the global carbon balance by acting as carbon sinks. The Native Forests and Forestry Development projects promote conservation and adequate management of national forests. The projects have contributed to the generation the first inventory of Argentine forests, which has resulted in a quantified the carbon sink capacity of the country. Bank projects that focus on flood prevention and water resource management offer more direct links to the vulnerabilities and adaptation components. The Flood Protection and Drainage Infrastructure Management projects, for instance, directly address issues related to the reduction of impacts from flooding in vulnerable areas of Argentina. The Drainage Infrastructure Management project in particular, has contributed to the determination of flood-prone areas around the major rivers of the Litoral-Mesopotamia and has promoted creation of monitoring systems. The rural development projects focus, among other things, on promoting sustainable agricultural practices, which increase productivity and ensure the preservation of natural resources. National Strategy Studies (NSS), two of which have been funded by the Bank, promote market-based 19 instruments for GHG reductions within the framework of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). NSS primarily focus on the identificationof projects inthe forestry, transportation, and energy sectors. Linkages to Other GEFImplementing Agencies' projects UNDP implemented both the Country Study to prepare the First National Communication to the UNFCCC; and also the project to revise the First Communication, and presented at Buenos Aires' Conference of the Parties (COP). The first study centered in the Oases area as with respects to studying climate change impact on vulnerability; other work was undertaken to identify opportunities for mitigating GHG emissions. The revised version presented in 1999, centered its efforts in devising a way for Argentina to acquire voluntary commitments regarding GHG emissions. This communication aims at complementing preceding studies, so that policy making can benefit from the studies. 3. LessonsLearnedAnd ReflectedInProjectDesign The First Communication of the Parties was performedby UNDP in 1997. A revisedcommunication was produced in 1999. Later that year, the Bank sponsored the first Argentine NSS, a study on opportunities under the flexible mechanisms recently established by the Kyoto Protocol. Lessons learned from those involvements can be summarized as follows: 0 Participation o f political stakeholders and decision makers in the development of policies and strategies i s o f critical importance, as this will ensure ownership of the project and commitment for the implementationphase. Since the project will help develop cross-sectoral strategies and programs, joint participation from all relevant governmental agencies since the project inception and during its development and implementation will ensure proper implementation and adequate mainstreaming at the different sectors. 0 A close coordination and supervision of the studies is needed, in particular with relation to the vulnerability assessments implemented by local institutions. This will ensure coherence in the approach of the strategies devised under the study. 0 Development of local emission factors and carbon sequestration coefficients i s important, as Argentina presents particularities not easy to standardize with general approaches. 0 Development o f regional circulation models i s important to better estimate vulnerability o f fragile and critical ecosystems. 0 A strong consultative process with the general public will ensure that whatever voluntary commitments are assumed or ratified are fully endorsed by the general population and stakeholders. 4. IndicationsOf BorrowerCommitmentand Ownership Art.41 of the Constitution of Argentina enshrines the main principles o f the national environmental policy. International agreements approved by the Argentine Legislative branch have a high hierarchical level inthe legal system, second only to the Constitution itself. The GOA has shown a consistent commitment to the topic o f climate change and has demonstrated leadership in the advancement o f current global policies that address this issue. In accordance with the UNFCCC and COP decisions, GOA carried out the Project Study on Climate Change, and as a result, the First National Communication of the Argentine Republic to the UNFCCC was submitted in 1997. Argentina was amongst the first non-Annex Inations to submit a National Communication to the UNFCCC. The GOA had an active participation in the negotiation o f the UNFCCC and the Kyoto 20 Protocol, contributing at the same time to the establishment and functioning of GEF and to the activities of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), of which Bureau is a member. In November 1998, Argentina hostedthe UNFCCC Fourth Meetingof the Conference of the Parties (COP-4), and contributed to the understandingsreachedinBonn and Marrakech inJuly and November 2001 for the implementation of the Buenos Aires Plan of Action (BAPA). Under the BAPA, parties set a two-year deadline for strengthening UNFCCC implementation .and preparing for the future entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol. Argentina, as member of IPCC's bureau, holds key posts in the preparation of the IPCC Special Reports (application of Article 3 of the Kyoto Protocol). More than 20 Argentine scientists are engagedas leading and contributing authors as well as review editors of the IPCC Assessment Reports and, some of them, were involved inthe preparation of the IPCC TAR Synthesis Report. Argentina's specialists are currently contributing to the development of IPCC Technical Papers, such as that on Climate Change and SustainableDevelopment, Climate Change and Biodiversity, and C02concentrations involving dangerous effects to natural systems. GOA has shown commitment to the project by establishing the Steering Committee, which not only will guide project implementation, but also will be key to developing strategic plans for mitigating climate change andlong-termadaptation plans. [Note: Includes measures already taken by the borrower prior to Boardpresentation, as well as planned actions.] 5. ValueAddedOfBank's Support For This Project The Bank offers a multi-sectoral approach through on-going operations in Argentina and the rest of the world related to climate change and its impact. Thus, preparing and implementing the project allows the participation of seasoned experts already managing or involved with project related activities in the country. This not only ensures a coherent and comprehensive view of the problem, but also favors the use of existing information and local resources. Of particular interest are the Bank-supported projects in Argentina on flood prevention, water resourcemanagement,urban transport, reduction of ozone-depleting substances, native and commercial forestry, renewable energy, and ruraldevelopment. Furthermore, the Bank i s implementing the second phase of a National Strategic Study on Climate Change, aimed at developing institutional capacity for dealing with the flexible mechanisms originated in the Kyoto Protocol, and leading to potential operations for the Bank's Prototype Carbon Fund. E: SUMMARY PROJECTANALYSIS (Detailed assessments are includedinthe project file, see Annex 8) 1. Economic (see Annex 4) Other (specify) NPV=US$ million; ERR = % (see Annex 4) The economic loss in Argentina associatedto climate change is difficult to determine, due to the lack of data andthe complex linkages amongst sectors. Costs could be structured into two categories: (i) Productivity losses derived from climate changes. Weather changes affect temperature and hydrologic balance, and have influencein floods and economic activities such as agriculture and tourism. Argentina i s one of the 14 countries of the world most affected by flooding events, reaching economic losses greater than 1.1% of GDP. Impacts on agricultural production derived from climate change are difficult to ascertain, as production practices may help exacerbate or diminish climate impact; soil salinization, and erosion are linkedto poor irrigation and land managementpractices. (ii) Economic costs associated to cleaner production of energy, and energy use, resulting from emission standards and regulation. High upfront costs, and market and regulation barriers prevent investments in 21 energy saving activities. Clean transport technologies involve higher costs not necessarily recoverable in the short term. 2. Financial(seeAnnex 4 andAnnex 5) Argentina is in the throes of economic recession characterized by a plunge of the peso (by as much as 60%) since it was devalued and allowed to float inearly January 2002 following years of beingpeggedto the U S dollar. In an effort to curb the rapid devaluation of its currency, Argentina recently imposed restrictions on foreign exchangeholdings in domestic and foreign accounts. NationalBanks were ordered to limit their dollar holdings and restrictions on bank transactions were imposed. Additionally, restrictions on cash withdrawals known as the "corralito" were created, as a means o f 1) protecting the financial system from bankruptcy due to insufficient liquidity; and 2) to act as a pseudo-monetary policy instrument. Considering the current fiscal constraints, the grant recipient will be Fundacidn Bariloche, who will implement the project without the need of passingthrough the national budget. Beingan NGO, the Bank disbursementsfor the project expenses for all categories will be 100% Fiscal Impact The project will not have fiscal impact. Argentina's counterpart will be "in-kind", and derived from the costs of representativesfrom the members of the Steering Committee involved in preparing, guiding, and monitoring the implementation of the project. Also, from the costs of offices and other operating resourcesutilized to that end. 3. Technical The project has been prepared with the inputs and participation of local and Bank experts involved not only with climate change related on-going and past operations in Argentina, but also with access to information about programs, experiences and priorities inthe areas of urban transport, rural development, forestry, agriculture, energy, flood control, and water resource management. The project draws from the results of the country studies undertaken to prepare the First Communication to UNFCCC, and from previous and on-going studies aimed at estimating marginal cost from climate change mitigation measures, and at identifying potentialCDM projects. As per the geographical areas selected to conduct the vulnerability analysis, it is important to signal that additional work with relation to the snow packs and their influence on the national hydrologic balance may be necessary in the future to ensure a good assessment of the regional vulnerabilities, and adaptation possibilities. This might be conducted as a bi-national project, incorporating the Chilean Andes into the analysis. 4. Institutional Argentina's institutional framework for managing climate change issues and policies is relatively weak and lacks coordination mechanisms. The only existing coordination mechanism with respect to climate change is the Office for the Clean Development Mechanism of the Secretariat of Environment and SustainableDevelopment, limited to developing and coordinating potentialCDM projects. Climate change i s a complex issue that links different sector policies and programs. Human activities and economic development usually entail GHG emissions resulting from energy use, organic matter decomposition, and from changes in land's vegetal cover. Therefore, preventing climate change, or adapting to it i s a matter that concerns all stakeholders, public and private. At the governmental level, promoting the prevention and abatement of GHG emissions from energy use, involves the participation of the Secretariats of Energy, Transport, Environment, and Industry; and the regulatory bodies on energy (ENRE) and gas (ENARGAS) at the Ministry of Economics. Land-use related policies and programs, which directly affect carbon sink capacity, fall under the Secretariats of Agriculture, Environment, and 22 Industry, and the Ministry of Infrastructure and Housing. Institutions dealing with climate change impacts and adaptation programs include the National Institute on Water; the Subsecretariat of Water Resources; the Secretariats of Health, Environment, and Agriculture, and the Ministry of Infrastructure and Housing. National Meteorological Service, and the Secretariat of Public Works, are charged of monitoring impacts and coordinating emergency responses in case of floods. The agencies dealing with climate change from a cross-sectoral perspective are the Secretariats of Environment, and Science and Technology; and the Ministry of ForeignAffairs, which not only leads the negotiations and representation at international bodies and forums, but also performs as official focal point for GEF. The leadership for conveying stakeholders and establishing nationalpositions with respect to the on-going international negotiations has over the years movedfrom one Secretariat to the other. The first communication to UNFCCC (1997) was led by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and locally coordinated by the Secretariat of Science and Technology. The revision to the First Communication (1999), was led by the Secretariat of Environment. Today, the leadership i s back at the Ministry of ForeignAffairs, who has not only requestedthe Bank support to implement the EnablingActivity project, but also has already as focal point endorsedthe project and the designation of Fundacio'nBariloche as the grant recipient. The project will strive for strengtheningthe inter-agency and stakeholder coordination on climate change, which will help to ensure project ownership, implementation of resulting policies by stakeholders, and sustainability. To this end, a Steering Committee will be created, which will ensure coordination at the government level; this will be a condition for effectiveness. To coordinate all other stakeholder participation, the project will have open workshops, in addition to the mechanismsto be developed under the Public Awareness component. 4.1 Executing Agencies The FB will execute the project (for a full description of FB please refer to section C.4.7). A letter to this effect has been sent by the Ministry of ForeignAffairs and Focal Point for the GEF on October 10 2002. The FB will be responsiblefor entering into legal agreements with the Bank and will act as official liaison for the project. The FB will be assistedas follows: Steering Committee The Steering Committee will oversee monitoring and evaluation of the project, including the coordination of the overall audit, to ensure that it i s in compliance with the agreement entered into with the Bank. The Committee will include representativesfrom the agencies in charge of climate change related issues (See section C.4 for further details). Its Rules of Procedure will be agreed on its first session and incorporated into the Manual of Operation of the project. Proiect ImplementingUnit The FB will establish a Project ImplementingUnit (PIU), whose core staff will be a Project Coordinator, two technical experts, one procurement and contract expert, and one technical assistant. The PIU will respond both to the FB, and to the President of the Steering Committee. The Project Coordinator will be responsible for day-to-day operations of the project such as planning and report writing, procurement, financial management, and technical monitoring and evaluation. The PIU will also be in charge of preparing and implementingworkshops to exchange views about the project implementationwith relevant stakeholders, and to advancethe preparation of the National Mitigation Program. 4.2 Project Management Successful project management will be contingent on: (a) adequate coordination between the Steering Committee and the FB; (b) timely financial evaluations; (c) adequate information for decision making processes; (d) participatory processes with all relevant actors and stakeholders; and (e) timely response to changes during project implementation. 23 Manual of Operations: The functions and responsibilities of the project management would be governed by the Manual of Operations (MOP), which would include, among other aspects, a full description of project activities, functioning of Steering Committee, and project procedures, financial guidelines, criteria for selecting consultants, staffing, and assignment of staff responsibilities, project supervision, flow of funds, special account, budgeting, auditing, reporting, as well as procurement and disbursement procedures. MOP will be a condition of Grant Effectiveness. 4.3 Procurement Issues Procurement arrangements and plans have been discussed with FB and are included in Annex 6 of the PAD. The Manual of Operations will also include a full section on procurement procedures and arrangements, and a two-year Procurement Plan for the project. The PIU will be responsible and will follow StandardBank Proceduresfor all project procurement. Procurement includes consultant services, goods and equipment. The PIUwill be supportedby a procurement specialist who will be directly responsible for producingthe Project's procurement documents and overseeingcontract processing. A Procurement Capacity Assessment was conducted by the Bank's Procurement Specialist (PS) during the appraisaland negotiation mission. The Overall Procurement Riskwas considered highdueto the lack of experience of FB in contracting consulting firms under Bank Guidelines. The PS's recommendations for improving FB's capacity and for mitigating risk included: a) the review and no objection by the Bank of the specific agreement between the Government of Argentina and FB regarding the implementation of this project would be a condition for grant effectiveness; b) the review and no objection by the Bank of the Project Operational Manual would be a condition for loan effectiveness. The Operational Manual shall indicate that contracts with local individuals shall be nominated in local currency; c) one experiencedProcurement Specialist should be hired before the first Request for Proposals i s submitted to Bank review; and d) all contracts with firms under every selection method should be subject to Bank prior review. As for individuals, all contracts to be defined in the Operational Manual should also be subject to prior review. Details of this assessment are includedinAnnex 6. 4.4 Financial ManagementIssues Funduci6n Buriloche will have experienced accountants to maintain adequate financial management systems-including accounting, financial reporting, and auditing systems. In addition, PIU will also be staffed with an accountant, to ensure that they can provide the Bank accurate and timely information regarding project resources and expenditures, in accordance with: (i)the Financial Accounting, Reporting and Auditing Handbook (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1995), (ii) the Guidelines and Terms of Reference for Audits of Projects with Financing by the World Bank in Latin America (World Bank, May 1999), and (iii) the Bank's Operational Policy (OP) and Best Practice (BP) 10.02, datedJuly 1996. A Financial Management Assessment of the FB was conducted by the Banks Financial Management Specialist (FMS) during the appraisal and negotiations mission. On the basis of the assessment performed, the financial management team concludes that upon completion of the proposed action plan the financial management of the FB, would satisfy the Bank minimum financial management requirements. Disbursements:A special account will be established in a commercial bank acceptable to the Bank. The account will be managed by the FB, which will be responsible to regularly submit withdrawal applications, supportedby the appropriate documentation according to Bank disbursement procedures. Auditing: The PIU will be responsible for preparing combined financial statements for the project as a whole. The project will be audited annually; an annual audit report of project accounts, and a separate opinion with respect to the Statement of Expenditures and the Special Account will be prepared by independentauditors acceptable to the Bank, in accordance with International Standards on Auditing and the guidance provided inthe "Guidelines and Terms of Referencefor audits of Projects with Financingby the World Bank inthe LatinAmerica and Caribbean Region". The auditors will be selectedbefore the end 24 of the first year to be audited. The PIU will send to the Bank a certified copy of the agreedaudit report no later than four months after the end of each year. TORS for all audits should obtain the Bank's no objection. 5. Environmental EnvironmentalCategory: C The project is a category C for environmental assessment purposes consistent with the provisions of OP 4.01, because it does not createdirect or induce indirect impacts on the environment. The preparation of a National Mitigation Program and elements for an Adaptation Plan to Climate Change will not have an adverse environmental impact. No civil works or remediation activities are financed under the Project. 5.1 Summarize the steps undertaken for environmental assessment and EMP preparation (including consultation and disclosure) and the significant issues and their treatment emerging from this analysis. The project i s expectedto havea beneficial environmental impact and no negative environmental impacts are foreseen. 5.2 What are the mainfeatures of the EMPandare they adequate? NA 5.3 F o r Category A and B projects, timeline and status o f EA: NA 5.4 H o w have stakeholders been consulted at the stage o f (a) environmental screening and(b) draft EA report on the environmental impacts and proposedenvironment management plan? Describe mechanisms of consultation that were used and which groups were consulted? NA 5.5 What mechanisms have beenestablished to monitor and evaluate the impact of the project on the environment? Do the indicators reflect the objectives andresults of the EMP? NA 6. Social 6.1 Summarize key social issues arising out of project objectives, and the project's planned social development outcomes. If the issues are still to be determined, describe current o r planned efforts to do so. There are no social issues associatedwith the project objectives. 6.2 Participatory Approach: H o w will key stakeholders participateinthe project? The project is aimed at developing strategies and plans for both mitigation and adaptation; therefore, participationof the community and of stakeholders i s critical to ensure implementation. Promotion of public awareness: Approximately 10% of the total budget of the project has been assigned to raising public awareness levels. The GOA is allocating significant funds for education and for the general change inperception of the overall population 25 Elaborationof SecondNational Communicationand the National Mitigation Program The Government has made plans to publish and distribute the Communication and the NMP widely, further promotingcommunication and public awareness efforts. 0 One of the project objectives is to integrate climate change issues into national planning. The project will be coordinated by the Steering Committee, which will act to ensure participation by all stakeholdersand will monitor the implementation of the project. 0 Public awareness activities, including seminars, workshops, and web-based discussion groups, will provide opportunities for various members of the public to participate. Activities will also feature tailored messages targeted at specific audiences such as students, professionals, clubs and civil organizations, media personnel, community leaders, and others. 6.3 H o w does the project involve consultations or collaboration with NGOsor other civil society organizations? 0 The project will develop a pilot plan of public awareness education for all members of the community. One of its objectives is that of providing methodology and experience to NGOs for future action in the field of climate change. 0 Also, project implementation emphasizes participation, through workshops and seminars. Informal meetings and discussions will be promoted between, among others, members of the private sector, NGOs, national and regional public servants, academics, and civil society leaders, to encourageexchangesof information and collaborations 6.4 What institutional arrangements are planned to ensure the project achieves its social development outcomes? The National Mitigation Program, and the future National Adaptation Plan will involve the participation of stakeholders from its inception, which is the only way to ensure an effective implementation at all levels of society. 6.5 What mechanisms are proposed to monitor and measure project performance in terms of social development outcomes? If unknown at this stage, please indicate TBD. 7. Safeguard Policies 7.1 26 7.2 Project Compliance (a) Describe provisions made by the project to ensure compliance with safeguard policies, which are applicable. N/A 8. Business Policies 8.1 Check applicable items: 0 -Financingof recurrent costs{OMS 10.02) 0 -Cost sharingabove country 3-yr average (OP/BP/GP 6.30) 0 -Retroactive financing above normallimit (OP/GP/BP 12.10) 0 -Financial managementIOP/BP 10.02) 0- Involvement of NGOs[GP 14.70) 8.2 For businesspolicies checked above, describe issue(s) involved. N/A F. SUSTAINABILITY AND RISKS 1. Sustainability [Note: Flagthe factors critical for the sustainability of project benefits.] The project will promote integration of climate change concerns into sector policies and programs, while promoting cross-sectoral coordination. This will help influence the investments of the country, complementing and redirecting resources towards mitigation and adaptation options. Joint financial efforts from different sectors will ensure a synergetic effect towards reducing GHG emissions and adaptationrelated costs. Active participation from all stakeholders inthe formulation of policies, programs and projects oriented to both mitigating and adapting to climate change will ensure ownership and sustainability. Many of the measures oriented to reduce GHG emissions also offer economic savings and local environmental benefits and rational policies to avoid floods, erosion, and salinization will avoid future corrective and expensive measures. Sustainability is therefore linked to achieving win-win results, geared by a participatory andcoherent approach. The project will aim at identifying investment options to be financed under the Clean Development Mechanism, GEF, or the Carbon Prototype Fund. Also, the project will identify barriers to measures contributing to reduce GHG emissions, such as energy efficiency, use of renewable energy, or a rational transport system integrated to land-use policies; and to sound adaptation measures involving land-use planning and enforcement, and adequate infrastructure investment. Argentina being part of UNFCCC i s obligated to continue to produce National Communications to the convention, showing advance and policies oriented to comply with its objectives. National adaptation plans will be necessary to minimize the impact of climate-influenced events such as flooding, hurricanes, salinization, drought, and the associatedproductivity loss. Finally, to ensure a sustained Government policy towards consistent goals and objectives in terms of climate change mitigation and adaptation, the institutional layout will have to be strengthened. Not only will a good and sustained coordination of policies have to be pursued through the Steering Committee, 27 but also it will be necessary to train officials at the institutional level to enhance the national capacity to produce subsequent National Communications. 2. CriticalRisks Reflectingthe failure of critical assumptionsfound inthe fourth column of Annex 1. Risk I RiskRatine I RiskMitigationMeasure FromOutputsto Objective GHG Inventory is solid and acceptedby N Make information public and open to stakeholders comments and suggestions by general public Secretariat of Energy coordinates methodology H Involve key players at Secretary of Energy in for energy balance (after OLADE) harmonization the development with IPCC methodology Data are available from regional authorities M Check from the beginning the need to produce primary information Have political support Data and information produced is reliable and M Utilize state-of-the-art methodologies sound Information produced by project is not M Dissemination of results to stakeholders and adequately absorbedby institutions governmental agencies Political commitment H Ensure that Steering Committee on Climate Change meetsperiodically to know the development of the project Economic and technical feasibility of potential N Buildprobable scenariosto anticipate energy efficiency measures different outcomes Stakeholders support measuresin Climate M Promote participation of NGO and private Change Mitigation National Plan sector FromComponentsto Outputs Political commitment H Steering committee meets and participation i s ensured Consistent data can be gathered around the M Local universities will be involved, and country government agencies will be consulted from the beginning Accurate and consistent records of GHG N Data available from former communications emissions exist and updated registers OverallRisk Rating: Risk Analysis: The overall risk associated with this project i s high because of a possible lack of government commitment, especially after elections. The project requires a sustained participation of the Steering Committee, which will depend on the political commitment of the different agencies involved. Relationships between some of the key agencies have not been smooth in the recent past, as institutions tendto compete for taking the leadingrole. In order to mitigate this risk, the project has conditioned presentation to the World Bank Board of Executive Directors on the establishment of a functioning Steering Committee, involving all key authorities. Also, the government has shown a relatively consistent commitment to the issue of global climate change; the active participation of the GOA in key positions of the P C C and COP, for instance, 28 indicates the level o f commitment o f this administration. As to the participation o f stakeholders, the project also has the risk o f changes with respect to a participatory approach with the community. A National Mitigation Program can only be effectively implemented if developed with the participation o f stakeholders, usually responsible for effecting lhe changes (behavioral and technology changes). 3. Possible ControversialAspects Not identified G. MAIN CONDITIONS 1. BoardCondition The following activities are specified as additional conditions to the effectiveness o f the GEF Trust Fund Grant: (a) Operational Manual completed; (b) Procurement planfor fist-year project operations; (c) PIUestablished with qualifications and experience satisfactory to the Bank; (d) Steering Committee established and Rulesof Proceduresfor its functioning inplace. 2. Other The PIU shall arrange for annual audits to beundertaken by an independent auditor. H. READINESSFORIMPLEMENTATION 1. The procurement documents for the first year's activities are complete andready for the start o f project implementation. 2. The Project ImplementationPlan indraft form, has beenappraised and found to be realistic andof satisfactory quality. Its final version acceptable to the Bankwill be a condition o f effectiveness. I. COMPLIANCEWITHBANKPOLICIES 1. This project complies with all applicable Bank policies. 2. The following exceptions to Bankpolicies are recommended for approval. The project complies with all other applicable Bank policies. &A Juan Lbpez-Silva c/ John Redwood an rotsenburg Team Leader Sector Managermirector Country ManagedDirector 29 Annex 1 PROJECT DESIGNSUMMARY Argentina EnablingActivities Leadingto Second NationalCommunication of the Argentine Republicto the Conferenceof Partiesto UNFCCC Hierarchy of Objectives Key Performance Indicators Monitoring and Critical Assumptions Evaluation Sector-related CASGo& Sector Indicators: Sector I Coontry Reports: Promoting sustainable growth, -Local capacity enhanced to incorporate global Second National klacroeconomic stability pollution abatement, integration environmental dimension in sector planning Communication to the of global warming objectives in UNFCC Political acceptance local strategies -Increase in numberof projects dealing with climate change and pollution abatement National Mitigation Program Sector Work (World Bank) I ProjectDevelopment Qutconte1ImpactIndicators: ProjectRepotts: ' (fromObjectivetoGoal) Objective: Support enabling activities I Institutionalprocedures in place to a Second National Commitment from Agencies and for the preparation of the prepare national communications Communication to the stakeholders Second National ... I Updated GHG emissions inventory and UNFCC Communication of the GOA trend analysis 1 NationalMitigation Sustainability of institutional to the Conference of the Local factors of emissions and carbon Program framework Parties of UNFCCC sequestration a Project Reports Update and improve GHG Harmonized Energy Balance Programs, Policies and Programs National Inventories Assessment of vulnerability of particular addressing climate change are Strengthen local capacities to ecosystems to climate change (coastal economically and technically integrate climate change zone, Pampa, Patagonia) feasible issues inplanning and inthe Assessment of Economic impact o f development of public .. climate change awareness Design of adaptation measures Assist inthe preparation of l Regional climate change projections from National mitigation policies modified General Circulation Model and measures a Assessment of technologies and policies Assess vulnerability and that aimat reducing the effects of climatic adaptation options for key variations ecosystemsand agricultural l Assessment of priorities and opportunities regions for mitigation carbon sequestration and technology transfer 30 Annex 1 ?rojectGlobalObjective: Measurements of variation of local Reports of the UNFCC jector policies include climate 3evelopment of country policies.. climatic patterns :hange mitigation and carbon hat will contribute to global Results from simulations of global iequestrationmeasures :fforts to mitigate climate circulation models using regional :hange indicators O~tput fromeachcomponent: (from Outputsto Objective) \ . I. GHGemissions inventory . Information gathering from various GHGInventory is solid and GHGemissions economic sectors; completion reports accepted by stakeholders inventory update Data processing, using IPCC 1 Factors of Emission methodological tools; Secretary o f Energy 1 Energy balance Analysis on evolving GHGemission coordinates methodology harmonization trendsand cross sector evaluation; for energy balance Review and adjustment of national emission factors, with emphasis in methaneemissions from cattle enteric fermentation; Review and study recent methodological improvements of IPCC; Review of late national inventories, and identification of methodological or informational gam: Review methodology recognized by IPCC for determining own factors of emissions for energy sectors as well as that for land- use and forestry Recordof national emissions factors per economic sector. 31 . Annex 1 1.Vulnerability Assessment Environmental indicators and data sets Progress, evaluation, and Data are available from Assessment of either generatedor updatedwill include: completion reports regional authorities vulnerability in i) Water level dependenceon tidal Data and information is specific ecosystems fluctuations along coastline reliable and sound (Patagonia,Pampa ii)Seasonalrecordoffloodand Informationproduced by HLimeda,Coastal drought inthe flatlands project i s not adequately Zone) iii)Seasonal,regionalwaterresource absorbed by institutions Evaluationof climate fluctuations in the flatlands change impacts on iv) Dependence of crop performance hydrological resources on water inputs andon the energy . v) Precipitation records in Patagonia sector Hydrological budget for various regions Economic impact of the country assessment Mappingof the following indicators: Design adaptation i)Zonesofwaterscarcity measures ii)Zonesofpotentialnaturalhazards Regional Climate iii)Zonesofenvironmentalstress models . iv) Zones o f population stress Identificationof institutionalcapacity . gaps to address potential natural disasters Review of regulatory framework to address natural disasters . Review of natural energy resources Figures of national energy demand Projections from Regional Climate Model of climatic scenarios as function of emissions levels 32 Annex 1 :. Identification of alternatives EEMOpportunities 'rogress andcompletion Politicalcommitment timed at reducingGHG (i) Evaluate energy pricing schemes and eports :missions trends; Economicand EEMopportunities (ii)Reviewcurrentenergyefficiency technical feasibility of Energy efficiency in programs; potentialenergy efficiency the transportation (iii)Identifyenergysavingmeasuresatthe measures sector and changesin demand side, andpre-feasibilityanalysis of the relativedistribution options for households, public and Interest and support of transportation commercialbuildings; from stakeholders modes (iv) Identify energy saving measures and pre- RenewableEnergy feasibility analysis at the production sector, Technologies including co-generation and self-generation. Carbon sequestration (v) Cost-effectivenessandincrementalcost and substitution evaluation of measures. Opportunitiesfor (vi) Analysis of the possibilities of energy . reductionof enteric sources switch. methane emissions Assessment of opportunities for energy efficiency in transport (i) Evaluate energy use in the transport sector. (ii)Identifyfeasibleoptionstoimprove energy efficiency intransport, including analysis of regionalandnational transportationand travelneeds, energy efficiency of current transport modemix, and infrastructureassessment. (iii) Evaluatefuel mixes andfuel formulation, with the aimof coordinatingthe promotionof efficient vehicle technologies with cleaner fuel specifications. (iv) Evaluate government plan, programs, and policies, which may be usedto boost energy efficiency intransportation. (v) Identify opportunities for GEF and CDM fundable pilots aimed at promotingenergy . efficiency. Assessment of renewableenergy technologies (i)Identifytechnologies (ii) opportunitiesforrenewable Analyze energy technologies (iii)Cost-effective analysisof different technological options . Assessment of opportunitiesfor carbon sequestrationand substitution (i) Identify areas suitable for afforestation andreforestationfor the sequestrationof C02 (ii) Assess economic cost and social impacts of reforestation as a substitute for the agricultural use of former forest and forested soils (iii) Evaluate alternativesto deforestation when it i s done to clear landfor crop and livestockproductionor away to obtain fuel. (iv) Assess feasibility of sink enhancement in native forests through sustainable managementpractices (v) Survey CDM opportunitieson carbon sequestrationand substitution (vi) Evaluate legal and regulatoryframework governing the forestry sector at the regional andnationallevels 33 I Annex 1 i. Encouragementof public Fosteringawareness - a sensitivity Progress reports. Politicalcommitment. mvironmentally responsible to the climate change and associated Monitoring of xhavior problems effectiveness of Available channelsof Knowledge - an understandingof campaigncan be done communication how climatechange functions, how through: people interact with anddependon i)Utilitybills Public acceptance climatic conditions, andhow climate ii)Enrollmentfigures change problems may be solved at education Attitudes aconcern for the - institutions environment and the personal iii)Balancesheetsof motivation and commitment to pro-environmental participateinenvironmental companies improvementandprotection Evaluationreport Skills the ability to identify and - Completionreport investigate climatechange problems andto contribute to their resolution Participation active involvementin - working towardthe reductionof climatechange. Increasing voluntary programs/ public participation Consultationof the climatechange web site E. Draftinganddistribution of = Compilationof environmental, economic, Final document to FCCC Politicalendorsement SecondNationalCommunication and social indicators; to UNFCCC 1 Draft communication 1 Consultation with authorities and main stakeholders; f. Monitoringof project ..Generalcoordinationof activities; Progress and workshop Funding andproject performance Monitoringperformance. reports completionwill take place as planned Political support Project Components/Sub Inputs:(budget for eachcomponent) ProjectReports: (from Componentsto Outputs) components Updatingof NationalGHG USS0.4 million (GEF. USS0.24 \I) Progress, evaluation, and Access to cross-sector Inventoriesanddevelopment completionreports information i s available of emission factors I Accurate and consistent 1 ... GHG Inventory US$0.20 million recordsof GHGemissions LocalEmissionFactors US$O.OS million exist ComparativeGHG US$0.07 million Inventory analysis Energy Balance US$0.05 million I harmonization 34 Annex 1 1. Vulnerability assessment and US$0.51million (GEF: US$0.355 M) Progress, evaluation, and 1 Consistentdata canbe institutional strengtheningfor :ompletion reports gatheredaround the country adaptation Assessment of coastal US$O.OSmillion zone vulnerability Assessment of US$0.05 million vulnerability of water resources inPampa Bonaerense Assessment of climate US$0.05 million changeimpact on watersheds inLitoral- Mesopotamia Agric. Productionat US$O.1million Pampa Assessment of impact US$0.07 million from rainfallincreases inPatagonia Economic Impact US$0.05 million Assessment to help formulate Adaptation Plan (stage 11) Assessment of US$0.04million vulnerability of energy system Designof Adaptation US$0.04 million measures(stage 11) Climatechange US$0.03million projections basedon Regional Circulation Mohels c. Formulationof National US$0.35 million (GEF: US$0.215 M) Progressandcompletion * Political Commitment MitigationProgram . reports - Assessment of EEM US$O.OSmillion opportunities Assessment of US$O.1 million opportunities for energy efficiency inthe transportation sector and changesinthe relative . distribution of transportationmodes Assessment of US$0.05 million . renewableenergy technologies Assessment of US$0.07 million opportunities for carbon sequestrationand substitution Assessment of US$0.05 million opportunities to reduce enteric methane emissions d. Promotion of public US$0.134million (GEF: US$0.105 M) Progressreports awareness Evaluationsof Communication campaign US$ 0.09 million campaigneffectiveness Training and symposia US$O.O44 million Manual for implementationof public awareness programs e. Drafting of Second Saiional US$0.02 million (GEF: US$0.019M) Final document to FCCC The GOA will continue to Communication io USFCCC endorse global efforts to limit the extent of climate change 35 Annex 1 f. ProjectManagement US$0.2 million (GEF US$0.176 M) Progressand workshop Fundingandproject completion reports will take place as planned 36 Annex 2 DETAILEDPROJECTDESCRIPTION This annex presents a more detailed description of the project different components. Annex 12 presents draft TOR for each of the studies to be contracted. PROJECT COMPONENTS A. NationalGHG Inventories Inaccordancewith Articles 4 and 12oftheUNFCCC, andtherelevant decisions ofthe COP, allParties to the Convention must submit national Greenhouse Gas (GHG) inventories to the Climate Change secretariat. Inventories compile data on emissions of carbon dioxide (Cop), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N20),as well as Non Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOCs), CO, and NOx. Emission estimates are presented in accordance with the source categories of the Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (1996) and following the new guidelines for the preparation of NationalCommunications accordedin CP.8 The inventory focuses on emissions from the following sources: 1) energy use, and more specifically relatedto the following category of use (i) residential; (ii) commercial; (iii) (iv) industrial; and (iv) public; transport; 2) power generation; 3) land use change, including(i) agriculture; (ii) forestry; and (iii) native forests and vegetal cover; and 4) waste (i.e. solid waste, wastewater, and sewage). Guidelines are given by IPCC on the manner inwhich emissions totals are to be estimated and reported. The activities producing the largest shares of emissions correspond to: 1) combustion of fossil fuels, consistently releasing approximately 90% of the total Copemissions and around 42% of the total GHG emissions of the country; 2) enteric fermentation, releasing 62% of methane emissions and 19% of total GHG emissions in 1997; and 3) management of agricultural soils, releasing 95% of total nitrous oxide emissions and 21% of total GHG emissions in 1997 (see Annex 13 for the most recent information on GHGemissions). The main objectives of this component of the project are to: 1)upgrade inventories of GHGemissions; 2) develop own factors of emissions; and 3) harmonize methodologies for developing energy balance and GHG emission inventories. The following four tasks will be completed as part of this component: a) GHG inventory update The existing inventories of GHG emissions publishedin 1999 with data from 1997 will be updated with data from the year 2000. National GHG inventories will be estimated and reported using the Revised 1996 Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. This will involve: i)gathering informationfrom all relevant sectors; ii)processingdata using IPCC methodological tools, using bottom-up and top-down methodological approaches; iii)reviewing and adjusting to national emission factors; and iv) analyzing evolving GHG emission trends and cross sector evaluation. b) Comparativeanalysis of previousand current GHGinventories Argentina is one of the few countries in the world that will have performed four inventories of GHG emissions covering the period 1990-2000. Consequently, a detailed assessment and analysis of the evolution of emissions, by sector, will be conducted. This analysis aims at identifying current trends of GHG emissions, as well as main drivers of their changing patterns. Using pertinent socio-economic data, a series of indicators will subsequently be generated. These indicators will reflect the evolution of emissions by economic activity, relative to population. Resultswill illustrate the evolution of emissions duringthe period 1990-2000. 37 Annex 2 e) Developmentof national emissionfactors The project will help develop own factors of emissions, which will allow a more accurate GHG emission inventory. Up till now, most emissions have been calculated using either IPCC or EPA factors, adjusted to localconditions. d) Harmonization of National Energy Balancesand GHG Emission Inventories This activity involves the evaluation of modifications needed by existing National Energy Balances in order to makethem compatible with IPCC's categoriesof emission sources. Currently, the energy balance structure groups energy consumption for commercial, public, and residential sub-sectorsunder one single category, while the GHG emissions inventory separates it into the three groups. Since the methodology for building the energy balance has been applied for years, the study proposesto identify any adjustment and modificationthat should be incorporated in the elaboration of the National Energy Balances, in order to makethemcompatible with the emissions inventories. B. VulnerabilityAssessment andInstitutionalStrengtheningfor Adavtation This project will enable Argentina to expand on a series of vulnerability assessments that was conducted as part of the First National Communication, which addressed potential impacts of climate change on various regions of the country (see Annex 14 for a Table comparing activities implemented for the First Communication and activities planned for the SecondCommunication). A second series of vulnerability studies is proposed as part of this project, following guidelines accorded in CP.8. These studies will take advantage of the development of a high resolution Regional Circulation Model (RCM) by the CIMA - Centro de Znvestigucidn del Mar y la Atmdsfera, at the Scientific and Technological National Center. This new RCM simulatesthe effects of climate change on hydrological conditions around the country and suggests adequate adaptation strategies. Nine independent vulnerability studies will be conducted, as describedinthe following sections. Terms of referencefor all of the studies are included inAnnex 12. a) Vulnerability of the coastalzone The leading role of the region in a national context, both politically and economically, is unquestionable, The Rio de la Plafa basin generates approximately 89% of the gross domestic product of the country, covers more than one third of the territory and i s home to about 79% of its population. The area i s vulnerable to the tidal floods produced by storms over the Rio de la Plafa or over the nearby Atlantic Ocean. The whole basin has historically undergone periodical occurrences of flooding and drought, caused by, among others, a combination of rainfall patterns, topography, and soil conditions. However, flooding patterns in recent times have noticeably changed and during the 1980s and 1990s floods were large, repetitive, and resulting damages were extremely costly. The impact of changing climatic conditions on the region is severe. The problem is particularly critical if it is considered that, although the development of population centers in the basin concentrates in flood- prone areas, infrastructure and services are designed for dry zones. More than 14 million people have settled along the shores of the Rio de la Plata for instance, which implies enormous investments on coastal areas. This type of investment is growing with time, without consideration to the potential risks and consequences of rising ocean levels. Equally alarming i s the occupation of coastal areas for precarious housing by impoverished population, with minimal infrastructure development, which intensifies the social and economical impacts of the flooding events. Given the impact on the coastal environment that a changing climate entails, this specific study component will focus on the response of the coastline of the Rio de la Platu. The study will focus on two areas: 1) Gran Buenos Aires; and 2) the Parund delta. It will focus on three objectives: 1) the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the area, giving particular attention to the effects of the water level of the Rio de la Plata on the coastline of the Grun Buenos Aires region; 2) the pervasive flooding of the Rio Parand and its effect on the increasing water levels along the coastline of the Rio de la Plata; and 3 ) review of the relationships between climate change and the expansion of the Parund deltu, and the 38 Annex 2 resulting effects on the coastline of the Rio de la Plata. These three events have the potential to cause major damages to the human settlements that have developed along the shores of the estuary. This component of the project will thus assess the social and economic effects that climate-change related events might have on the Gran Buenos Aires area. The project will further evaluate the need to take remedial action in order to protect the settlements from further climate change impacts, and to prevent additional environmental damage the coastline of the Rio de la Plata. b) Vulnerability of the Pampa Bonaerense Since the beginning of the 1970s the Pampa Hdmeda has been subjected to a "Humid Cycle", characterized by an increase in the frequency and the magnitude of precipitation events, as well as by higher mean temperatures. Because of these climatic pattems, the area undergoes periods o f drought followed by periods of flooding. The impact o f these climatic cycles, and particularly of the flooding, i s aggravated by the flatness of the region. It i s clear that climate change events, and particularly the occurrence of the "wet-dry" cycles, may drastically affect the surface water and the groundwater water resources of the Pampa Bonaerense. It i s also to be expected that human intervention, through changes in land use, deforestation, and other practices has worsened the capacity of the region to adapt to the changing climate. Given the economic importance of the area and the large number of people who may be at risk from climate events, it i s of critical importance to develop adaptation strategies and mitigation measures to reduce as much as possible the impacts of global warming. This component of the project will therefore focus on the following areas: 1) characterization of the sensitivity of the region's water resources to climate fluctuations. This assessment will partly build on results from other vulnerability studies that will be conducted as part o f this project (i.e. components a and c). A particular emphasis will be given to the evaluation of the status of current ground water resources; 2) evaluation of the effectiveness of drainage and flood protection infrastructure works that have been constructed in the region; 3) assessment of the level of degradation of soils in the Pampa Bonaerense;and 4) socio-economic impact of climatic changes on the Pampa Bonaerense. c) Vulnerabilityof agricultureproduction in the Pampa Hdmeda The Pampa Hdmeda occupies approximately 18% of the country's total land area and produces approximately 80% of its annual agricultural output. The region produces a variety o f temperate crops, including most grains and oilseeds. Over 90% o f Argentina's soybean production, between 80 and 90% of the corn, wheat, sorghum, barley, and sunflower production of the country take place in the region. The livestock sector, traditionally strong in Argentina, i s also present in the Pampa Hdmeda, where it occupies a portion of the available land. In fact nearly 90% of country's total beef production i s grass- fed, and therefore depends on the existence o f pastures. The region can thus be divided into three zones according to the predominant form of landuse: cropping, mixed cropAivestock, and livestock. The introduction of new crops and new land management methods to the agricultural practices in the Pampa Hdmedamay have causedchanges inthe area's ability to withstand the effects of extreme climatic changes. In particular, the local drainage and soil water retention capacities, as well as the soil's degradation potential may have been altered. This component of the project will focus on the potential effects of climate change on the productivity and the vulnerability o f crops. The study will: 1) evaluate whether the current productivity levels of the region can be maintained under projected climatic conditions; 2) estimate the economic impacts o f a potential decrease in productivity; 3) assess the social implications of lower regional productivity; and 4) propose adaptation measures to reduce the negative impacts of climate change. 39 Annex 2 d) Vulnerability of the water resources in the Litoral-Mesopotamia This component of the project will evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Litoral-Mesopotamia. This region includes the provinces of Misiones, Corrientes,Entre Rios, Formosa, Chaco and Santa Fe. The Litoral-Mesopotamia has a humid climate, comprises most of the Rio de la Plata basin, and is the richest of the country in terms of its hydrologic resources. The study will focus on some of the most prominent surface water resources in the region, such as the Bermejo and Pilcomayo rivers, located on the northern part o f the Litoral-Mesopotamia region, and the Parand, Paraguay and Uruguayrivers. Climate effects on climate have shown great impact in this region, and streamflow values in the Paranflaraguay basin have increased leading to flooding. Besides, human activity has had marked, detrimental effects on the hydrographical characteristics of the region of study and i s also blamed for aggravating the conditions of the region and contributing to the dramatic flooding events that have occurred in recent years. Examples of the negative human intervention include, among others: a) gradual replacement of natural vegetation for foreign species; b) changes o f land-use from pastures to agricultural land; c) non conservational practices of land clearing; d) changes in phreatic surface levels due to poor irrigation practices; e) groundwater contamination from agrochemical use; g) use of river banks for agricultural purposes during dry cycles; and h) development of infrastructure (i.e. roads, housing, etc.) that forces the diversion of rivers and streams. These activities alter natural drainage and surface runoff patterns, contribute to erosion processes, and are partly to blame for the extent of the damage caused by flooding of the past three decades. The purpose of this project component i s to evaluate the impact o f climate change on the water resources of the Litoral-Mesopotamia. Pervasive flooding events and the magnitude of the damages make it critical to understand how climate change i s affecting the hydrological characteristics of the region. The study will: 1) assess if the observed changes in precipitation patterns are sufficient to cause such disruption of hydrological regimes, or if human action i s also partly responsible for the observed behavior; 2) determine how climate change, and more specifically higher precipitation rates are likely to affect the major rivers of the area; 3) estimate the extent of the damages that may occur as a result of the changes; 4) determine the socio-economic impact of the flooding on the region and the effects on its economic growth; and 5) propose mitigation and adaptation strategies that may contribute to decreasing future damage. e) Vulnerability of the Patagonia Overgrazing has caused irreparable damage to the natural ecosystem, where it i s estimated that 80% of the surface of the region presents some level of degradation. The area has undergone partial desertification, and the potential exists for a more widespread degradation. Other factors that have contributed to the occurrence of desertification, include deforestation, misuse o f water resources and irrigation that have caused salinization, forest fires, mining, and petroleum exploration. Also, the glaciers located in the highareas of Patagonia present signs of melting affecting the hydric and snowpack balance. Agricultural activities in the Argentinean plains are maintained through irrigation and therefore, snowfall fluctuations will likely have strong impacts inthe region. The objectives of this project component are to: 1) estimate the impacts of climate change on the various natural resources of the region; 2) estimate the effect of current land and water management practices on the sustainability of the region's water resources; 3) propose mitigation andadaptation plans to reduce the impacts of climate change; and 4) identify and evaluate the potential for socio-economic development of the Patagonia inlight of possible climate change impacts. 40 Annex 2 f ) Overallsocio-economicimpactsof climatechange Estimating the socio-economic impacts of climate change involves assessing the present and future vulnerability of a sector or a community to the various climatic conditions. This, in turn, involves malung estimates and projections of the evolution of the socio-economic system. These projections are strongly dependent on assumptions about the adaptive capacity of the sector or the community, since the ability to adapt to climate change may considerably reduce its negative impacts. The capacity to adapt to climate change varies among regions and socioeconomic groups, and with time. It depends on existing scientific and technical knowledge, information, infrastructure, skills, institutions, and funds. The poorest regions and communities, which often lack all of these adaptation tools, are therefore those that are the most vulnerable to climate change. This component of the project aims at identifying the socio-economic impacts associated with climate change and the range of options available for communities and institutions to respond to the changes. Enhancing the adaptive capacity of these regions may be the best alternative to reducing future impacts of climate change. The study will build on results from vulnerability assessments conducted for the Second National Communication on the Gran Buenos Aires area, the Pampa Hu'meda, the Litoral-Mesopotamia and the Patugonia regions. In addition, results from vulnerability studies conducted for the First National Communication will also be used, namely those for the coastal areas of the country and for the Oasis regions. Estimating socio-economic impacts consists of various tasks, among which: 1) establishing baselines, which involves assessing current environmental conditions and identifying vulnerabilities; 2) determining projected emissions scenarios and estimating associated climate patterns; 3) assessing the environmental impacts under the assumed climatic conditions; 4) evaluating system's adaptability to new climatic and environmental conditions; 5) developing series of policies to address the various impacts; and 6) determining the economic costs of the proposed policies and the effects they may have on the development of the region g) Vulnerability of the energy system and energy infrastructure The impact of climate change on the energy system in Argentina must be evaluated in two stages, first on a short-term basis, and later at a longer scale. On a short term, and the time horizon for this evaluation must be determined based on estimates from climate change projections, the impacts of climate change will primarily consist in changes of the role of the various energy sources in meeting the energy demands of the country. This short-term scenario can be illustrated by assuming that climate change leads, for example, to shortages of water in certain regions of the country. To mitigate these impacts, water use i s partly diverted from electric power generation to consumption, resulting in a decrease in the electricity generated. Other sources of energy must then be used to compensate for the loss of hydropower, altering the patterns of consumption of energy sources. If this change in patterns o f consumption continues for a sufficiently long period o f time, then the impacts o f climate change need to be considered on a longer- term scenario, at which point infrastructure changes may be needed to meet the changes in demand. T h i s component of the project will focus on evaluating climate change impacts on the Argentine energy system. The demand for energy i s dominated by the transportation and industry sectors, which, in general terms, primarily consume natural gas and derivates from petroleum. Interms o f energy supply, primary sources consist, again, mainly of petroleum products and natural gas. The share of hydro power to the total electricity generated however, i s a factor of two larger than that of all the remaining sources. Climate change i s not likely to affect exploitation of petroleum and natural gas, and therefore the direct impacts of climate change will only be significant to the electricity sector. Impacts to the hydroelectric generating capacity of the country, however, will be felt across the energy system, since other sources will have to compensate for any disruptions in energy supply. This study will evaluate: 1) how climate change can affect the electric generating capacity of the country; 2) how this impact affects the energy supply; 3) how the demand sector will be influenced; and 4) the adequacy of the existing energy infrastructure system. 41 Annex 2 h) NationalAdaptation Program and regional adaptationplans Based on the premise that adaptation strategies have the potential to significantly reduce the vulnerability to climate change, this component of the project will build upon results of the previous components to promote the development of adaptive capacity in Argentina. This objective can be approached from a national development policy perspective, recognizing that many of the activities that promote adaptation to climate change are in line with those that promote sustainable development. In fact, many o f the communities who are the most vulnerable to climate change impacts also face problems of natural resource depletion, and therefore climate adaptation and sustainability objectives can be pursuedjointly. Itwill thereforebebeneficial to address issuesof adaptation capacity at the policy development stage. Based on results from previous studies, this component will develop a framework o f adaptation policies that may be incorporated either in the national development plan or in regional development initiatives. This adaptation framework involves: 1) identification of climatic vulnerabilities; 2) choice of the most cost effective and socially acceptable measures to prevent or to adapt to negative impacts of climate; 3) assessment of adequate policy measures and institutional framework to implement the adaptation initiatives; and4) allocation of resources for the implementation of adaptation programs. i) Estimatesof regional climate changescenarios through Regional Climate Models This component is aimed at contributing to the climate modelingefforts being carried out inArgentina, so that simulations on future regional climate episodes can help develop regional and national climate change mitigation strategies. Results from separate GCM models are considerably different when they are used for predictions of regional climatic patterns. The reason for the discrepancies is that regional distribution of climate variables, such as precipitation and temperature, are often strongly influenced by local features (i.e. topography). The spatial resolution of G C M i s typically not sufficiently refined to capture these features, and consequently the uncertainty of the predictions increases. GCM results are typically statistically downscaled in order to obtain regional data. Another method that exists to refine model resolution i s that of using limited-area models nested in global circulation models. This i s the methodology which will be used by this project for the development of regional climate scenarios in Argentina. Regional scenarios of climate change for Argentina will be based on an increase in greenhouse gases according to the IPCC "business-as-usual" emission scenario. T h i s scenario i s used to predict how emissions and the atmospheric concentration of GHG might evolve in the absence of global efforts, in the present time, to limit emissions. Predictions of climate for South America will be made over the period 1970 - 2050. The information obtained will include predictions o f local circulation patterns and estimates of temperature and precipitation scenarios. C. Formulationof NationalMitigationProeram This project will promote the development of a National Mitigation Plan (NMP), which will include measures for the reduction of national GHG emissions levels. The Plan will identify opportunities for mitigation of emissions through measures inthe following areas, among others: a) Energy Efficiency Measures (EEM) The energy sector i s the largest emitter o f GHG in Argentina, in spite of the country's long trajectory usingclean energy sources. Significant reductions to the amount of GHG emissions can be achieved by increasing the efficiency of energy consumption. To that effect, government measures to promote the Rational Use of Energy (URE) were first introduced, by law, during the 1985-89 period. The impact of the initial phase of UREwas however limited, largely due to economic turmoil inthe Region at the end of the 1980s, and to the short duration of the programs, which were not sufficiently long to accomplish 42 Annex 2 significant changes inthe patterns of energy use. Estimates of potential energy savings for Argentina reach values greater than 25% of the total national energy consumption and it i s therefore clear that a NMP for GHG emissions must include mitigation measures for the energy sector. However, several obstacles are currently in place that difficult the effectiveness of these measures and the NMP must introduce initiatives that specifically address some of these barriers. These barriers include: 1) low prices of energy; 2) excess generating capacity; 3) lack of incentives for distributors; 4) absence of shared economic responsibility; 5) limited supply of energy efficient services; and 6) absence o f regulatory and financial frameworks to promote energy conservation Previous experience in Argentina has shown that in the absence of a solid institutionalframework, energy efficiency, regardless of its economic benefits, is not a priority of energy consumers. It i s therefore clear that any NMP that attempts to reduce emissions from the energy system by promoting energy conservation must do so by introducing a combination of programs that promote efficiency, as well as regulation that accompanies those programs. This component will (i) develop portfolio o f energy efficiency measures that can be implemented as part of emission mitigation strategies; (ii) evaluate the applicability of EEM measures to the Argentine energy system; (iii) assess the need for government support of EEMinitiatives; and(iv) identify programs that can be implemented through the CDM b) GHGEmission Mitigation in the Transportsector The contribution of the transportation sector to the GHG emission balance in Argentina i s considerable, making it an important factor in any emission reduction strategy or climate change mitigation plan. Well- known measures to reduce transportation emissions essentially address two issues, namely a reduction of travel demand or an increase intravel efficiency. The first type of emission mitigation measures, those aimed at changing transportation patterns and at reducing the demand for traveling, include initiatives such as: 1) promoting shifts in modes of travel from automobiles to public transportation; 2) promoting emission-free modes of transportation (Le. bicycles); 3) instituting road pricing programs, which charge drivers for the use of particularly congested roads duringpeak hours; 4) promoting travel blending initiatives, which consist of programs aimed at reducing private car use by modifying travel behavior; 5) introducing zoning regulations; 6) establishing location- efficient mortgages; 7) implementinglocation-dependent development costs; 8) encouraging substitutions of communications for traveling; and 9) adjusting automobile insurance policies according to average distances traveled. The second type of measures can be achieved by improving vehicle efficiency. Examples of measures that can be implemented include: 1) programs that eliminate old, inefficient and polluting cars; 2) system of taxes on the sale of inefficient vehicles; 3) programs that charge taxes on vehicle fuels; and 4) fuel conversion programs, a measure that has already been implemented in Argentina, where approximately 12% of private automobiles and 47% of the taxis have converted from gas to compressed natural gas (CNG). The NationalMitigation Program will address the need to introduce measures such as the ones mentioned, to control GHG emissions from the transportation sector. To that end, current strategies will be assessed andmeasuresto reduce GHGemissions will beevaluated usingcost-benefit analysis. c) Renewable energy sources (RE) The generation of renewable energy has a large potential in Argentina. Several commercially proven technologies are available to make use of existing resources such as: 1) small-scale hydropower; 2) solar energy; 3) solar thermal power; 4) wind power; 5) biomass power; 6) biogas power; 7) geothermal power; and 8) wood energy. The NMP must include provisions to promote the use of renewable energy sources. Given the extensive potential of resources of Argentina, an emphasis should be put on the inclusion o f these energy sources into the mainstream of power generation options. However, with the exception of large-scale hydro- power, most of the renewable energy resources in Argentina are under developed. 43 Annex 2 Several obstacles contribute to the limited use of RE in Argentina, including: 1) a mismatch between demand and adequate supply locations; 2) constrained demand; and 3) financing barriers for RE projects. However, the most significant barrier to the development of the renewable energy sector and in the future role it may achieve in Argentina involves its competitive disadvantage relative to the current, liberalized electricity market. The NMPtherefore needs to introduce mechanisms that promote the use o f renewable energy resources. Examples o f these mechanisms may include, for instance: (a) temporary subsidies to new, targeted technologies at the research, development, demonstration, or commercialization stage; (b) temporary subsidies that cover the cost difference between renewable and less costly options; (c) tax deductions to suppliers of RE; and (d) regulation covering both supply and demand of RE. The project will identify potential GHGemission reductions due to RET use; and identify policy and regulatory options. d) Carbon dioxide sequestration Land-use, land-use change, and forestry activities (LULUCFs) reduce GHG emissions and may evolve into programs that qualify for emission trades under the provisions o f the Kyoto Protocol. The development o f forests is an example of LULUCFs, and an effective mechanism of sequestering carbon dioxide (C02) present in the atmosphere. Carbon sequestration by forests can be achieved in two basic ways: 1) by maintaining existing sinks of C02, which can be achieved, for instance, by conserving and sustainably managing existing forests; and 2) by expanding sinks of C02 through, among others, expanding planted forests. Additionally, the forestry sector can contribute to decreasing GHG emissions by promoting a reduction in the use of disposable forestry goods. The potential for development of carbon sequestration and substitution projects in Argentina i s extensive. The N M S will therefore promote the implementation o f these types o f projects and provide guidelines and methodology for identifying potential sites. This study will aim at: a) evaluating carbon sequestration and substitution potential through LULUCF projects; b) building capacity for the assessment of carbon sequestration and substitution potential from afforestation and reforestation projects; c) identifying carbon sequestration and substitution projects that can be implemented through the CDM; and d) developing policy options to promote carbon sequestration through afforestation, reforestation, and deforestation prevention measures. e) Reduction of methane enteric emissions The 1999 revision of the 1997 GHG emission inventory provides the most current figures available on GHG emissions from the agriculture and livestock sectors in Argentina. According to the report, the livestock sector alone i s responsible for approximately 35% of the total GHG emissions, which are primarily methane but also, include nitrous oxide. More specifically, approximately 68% of the total methane emissions in Argentina are released by the agriculture and livestock sector. Cattle release approximately 92% o f the total methane emissions liberatedfrom enteric fermentation. Current enteric methane figures have been estimated usingemission factors developed abroad, which may not be representative of local cattle raising practices and conditions. The objectives of this component of the NMP are: a) to perform monitoring and sampling o f Argentine livestock emissions in order to determine local emissions of methane by enteric fermentation processes; b) to compare these measured factors with those used in the prediction of methane emissions in the country; c) to adjust emission figures included in GHG inventories if significant differences exist between measured and estimated factors; and d) to develop programs that reduce methane emissions from enteric fermentation D. Promotionof PublicAwareness The objective of the public awareness program i s to develop education and outreach programs that focus on the issue of climate change. This project component will consist of two sub-components, namely a communication campaign and a training program. These two components will be designed in accordance to guidelines agreed inCP.8. 44 Annex 2 a) Communication campaign The public awareness program will promote the climate change training program, raise awareness on the topic, and will encourage individual and collective actions aimed at reducing practices that contribute to climate change. The promotion of public awareness on climate change issues will focus on encouraging environmentally responsiblebehavior through five key concepts. The program will foster: i)awareness - sensitivity to climate change and overall global warming issues; ii)knowledge - understanding of the causes and consequences of global climate change, the impacts it may have on the population, and of potential measures that can be implemented to reduce its impacts; iii)attitudes - concern for the environment, personal motivation and commitment to participate in activities promoting environmental improvement and protection; iv) skills - ability to identify and investigate climate change issues and to contribute to their solution; and v) participation - active involvement in working towards the reduction of climate change. The promotional campaign will be conducted at the national level, through newspapers, radio, andtelevision, and will target a widespreadaudience. No institutionalprovision has yet beenmade regardingthe implementation of the public awareness program. b) Trainingprogram The project will develop a pilot training program for community leaders, as well as for all members of the community interested in the topic. Inorder to reach a widespread audience, the project will involve the media, educational institutions, NGOs and any other organization that could contribute in any way to climate change outreach. Audiences need to be specifically targeted in order to maximize the efficiency of the education campaign. All population groups, both urban and rural, must be taken into account, including all students andteachers, professionals,parents, senior citizens, community leaders, etc. The project will focus on building capacity and on assisting for planning and conducting future public awareness campaigns. Following i s a series of activities suggestedas a way of implementingthe climate change training program: i)review, evaluation, and update of current public environmental information programs, such as those currently implemented by the SAyDS; ii)information exchange on climate change challenges and opportunities of involvement for leaders and representatives from stakeholders' institutions; iii)development of grade school and informal education materials such as booklets, manuals, brochures, interpretive displays, training manuals, and slide shows; iv) coordination of seminars, workshops, and public audiences; v) improvement of the OAMDL web site to host the "National Climate Change Web Site". A plan for evaluating the success of the pilot program and for the establishment of a continuous awareness and training program must be implemented. After any outreach product is distributed to the intended audience, follow-up monitoring activities will be instituted such that the effectivenessof the product can be assessed. E. Draftinp of Second National Communication to UNFCCC This component addresses the actual generation of the SecondNational Communication. The document will compile results from the various project components and other publicly available information. This information includes national statistics on population, social and cultural characteristics, economic indicators, and institutional settings. The Second NationalCommunication will includethe following sections: i)national statistics; ii)national inventories and emission factors; iii)methodological review and comparative analysis of previous and current GHG inventories (1990-1994-1997-2000); iv) study on the possibilities to increase consistency between National Energy Balances and the Inventory Emission Source Categories; v) vulnerability assessment and institutional strengthening for adaptation; vi) preliminary formulation of a National Mitigation Program; vii) development of circulation models and climate change scenarios; viii) statement of financial needs; ix) promotion of public awareness. The Second National Communication will be drafted following new guidelines for the preparation of National Communications accordedin CP.8. 45 Annex 2 The Second National Communication will be written, translated if necessary, published, and ultimately distributed. F. ProgressReportsand Workshops Periodic progress reports on all project components will be routinely evaluated to assess the adequate advancement of the overall project. Four workshops have been projected with participation of all coordinators, experts, and assistants with the objective o f (i) launching the project; (ii) assessing progress of various project components; (iii) exchanging information and results from the various subprojects, particularly the NMP; and (iv) producing a final assessment. Lectures from experts have been envisioned as one additional method to verify advances inthe completion of objectives. 46 Annex 3 ESTIMATEDPROJECT COSTS ARGENTINA: Enablingactivity for SecondNationalCommunicationof Argentine Republicto the Conventionon Climate Change Project Cost By Component Foreign Local Total -------- US $million -------- A. Updating Nat'l GHGEmission Inventories 0.240 0.160 0.400 B.Vulnerability Assessment 0.355 0.155 0.510 C. National MitigationStrategy 0.215 0.135 0.350 D. PublicAwareness 0.105 0.029 0.134 E. Drafting of SecondCommunication 0.019 0.001 0.020 F. ProjectManagement (incl. Workshops) 0.176 0.024 0.200 G. Audit 0.030 0.000 0.030 TOTAL BASELINE COSTS 0.000 0.000 0.000 Physical Contingencies 0.000 0.000 0.000 Price Contingencies 0.000 0.000 0.000 TOTAL PROJECT COSTS 1.140 0.500 1.640 Total FinancingRequired 1.140 0.500 1.640 Foreign Local Total Project Cost By Category -------- U S $million -------- Goods 0.010 0.000 0.010 Consultant Services 0.853 0.500 1.353 Amount charged by Recipient to carry out 0.238 0.000 0.238 Part A of the Project Operating Costs 0.039 0.000 0.039 Total Project Costs 1.140 0.500 1.640 Total FinancingRequired 1.140 0.500 1.640 47 = Annex 4 INCREMENTAL COSTS Component Domestic benefits Globalbenefits 1.Updating of National 1.000 3HG inventories and ilternative 1.400 Jpgrade of national nformation on regional levelopment of nventories of GHG emissions :ontribution to global GHG :mission factors inddevelopment of indicators :mission loads and trends 'or evaluation of emission rends ncrement 3.240 ). Vulnerability 3aseline 3.000 issessment and nstitutional itrengthening for idaptation ilternative 3.510 [nformationon: Increasedknowledge on I. Relative impact of specific impacts of climate change and climate change human action on the Increased protection degradation of the and sustainableuse of coastline of the Rio de la globally significant Plata ecosystems 11. Impact of climate Increasedknowledge of change on water effects of human resourcesof the Pampa practices on climate ... Hu'meda change impacts 111. Impact of climate Valuable impacts to change on agricultural water resource productivity of the managementpractices Pampa Hu'meda incountries vulnerable iv. Impact of climate to climate change change on water Development of resourcesof the Litoral- regional and national Mesopotamia adaptation programs V. Effects of climate that can be usedin change on water comparable ecosystems resourcesand Results from regional productivity of circulation simulations Patagonia that can be incorporated vi. Overall effects of to global atmospheric climate change on socio- modeling efforts economic development of various Argentine regions vii. Development of National Adaptation Plan to reduce future impacts ... of climate change V l l l Generation of regional climate change projections Increment 0.355 c. Formulation of Baseline 0.000 National Mitigation Program 48 F Annex 4 Component Category Domestic benefits Alternative I. Increasedknowledge Development of mitigation about sustainable strategies for GHG practices in the energy, emissions that can be transportation, and applied to or save as model forestry sectors to that of other countries 11. Development of strategy for the reduction of national GHG emissions I Increment 0.215 d. Promotion of public Baseline 0.000 awareness Alternative 0.134 I. Development of Development of programs outreachprograms and that can be adapted and used education plans centered inother countries also around the issue of vulnerable to climate climate change change 11. Increasedcapacity for sustainable managementof water ... resources Increasing adaptation I 111. capacity to impacts of climate change Increment 0.105 Baseline 0.000 k- National Communication to the Alternative 0.020 1. Compiled analysis of Development of impacts and methodology to carry out vulnerabilities to climate studies and to produce a change, and development SecondCommunication, of adaptation and which can be usedin other I mitigation strategies countries 11. Fulfillmentof Argentine commitment to UNFCCC I==== Increment 0.019 f. ProjectMana ement Baseline 0.000 Alternative 0.200 Realization of activities to Development of adequately manageproject methodologies for execution management of activities r leading to National Communications Increment 0.176 g. Audit Baseline 0.000 Ensureadequate use of Development of adequate resources and transparency in methodology to conduct ooerations studies Alternative 0.030 1 TOTAL Increment 0.030 Baseline 0.000 Alternative 1.640 Global 1.140 Increment 49 Annex 5 FINANCIAL SUMMARY ARGENTINA: Enablingactivity for Second NationalCommunicationof Argentine Republicto the Conventionon Climate Change Years EndingDecember31 (US$,2003) IMPLEMENTATIONPERIOD Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Proiect Costs InvestmentCosts 0.90 0.70 0.04 Recurrent Costs 0.00 0.00 0.00 TotalProject Costs 0.90 0.70 0.04 Financing GEF 0.70 0.40 0.04 Government 0.20 0.30 0.00 TotalProject 0.90 0.70 0.04 Financing 50 Annex 6 PROCUREMENTARRANGEMENTS ARGENTINA: Enabling activity for Second National Communication of Argentine Republic to the Conventionon Climate Change Scope of Procurement under the GEF Grant Procurement of goods and services, as well as contracting of consultants with GEF grant funds, would be carried out in accordance with Guidelines for Procurement under IBRD and IDA credits (January 1995, revised September 1997 and January 1999) and the Guidelines for the Use of Consultants (January 1997, revised September 1997andJanuary 1999). Table A: Project Costs by Procurement Arrangements (US$ million) 1. Goods 0.010 0.010 (0.010) (0.010) 2. Consultant Services 0.00 0.00 0.853 0.50 1.353 (0.00) (0.00) (0.853) (0.0) (0.853) 3. Operating Costs 0.00 0.00 0.039 0.00 0.039 (Including Workshops) (0.00) (0.00) (0.039) (0.00) (0.039) Total 0.00 0.00 0.902 0.50 1.402 (0.00) (0.00) (0.902) (0.0) (0.902) Note: ICB =InternationalCompetitiveBidding NCB =National CompetitiveBidding N.B.F. = Not BankFinanced 1/ Figures in parenthesis are the amounts to be financed by the GEF Grant. All costs include contingencies. 2/ Includes civil works and goods to be procured through national shopping, consulting services, services of contracted staff of the project management office, training, technical assistance services, and incremental operating costs relatedto (i)managing the project, and (ii) re-lending project funds to local government units. 51 Annex 6 The table below summarizes the preliminary project procurement plan. Procurement arrangements result from the technical complexity of the studies to be delivered and from the tight available budget. The project team has intensively reviewed these arrangements and agreed on the need of using most of the available selections methods in view of the above-mentioned complexity and budget constraints. Table Al: Consultant SelectionArrangements (US$ million) (0.114) (0.195) (0.339) (0.029) (0.000) (0.039) (0.000) (0.716) Individuals 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.137 0.000 0.000 0.137 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.137) (0.000) (0.000) (0.137) Total 0.114 0.195 0.339 0.029 0.137 0.039 0.500 1.353 (0.114) (0.195) (0.339) (0.029) (0.137) (0.039) (0.000) (0.853) 1\ Includingcontingencies Note: QCBS = Quality- and Cost-Based Selection QBS = Quality-based Selection SFB = Selectionunder a FixedBudget SS = Single Source Selection LCS = Least-Cost Selection CQ = Selection Based on Consultants' Qualifications Other = Selection o f individual consultants (per Section V of Consultants Guidelines), Commercial Practices, etc. N.B.F.=Not Bank-financed Figures inparenthesis are the amounts to be financed by the Bank Grant. 2\ Justification for the use of SS Selection Study objective: Todevelop estimatesof climate change scenarios through regional climate models. This contract will be awarded to CIMA, which is the only institution in Argentina with the experience, capacity, data, and on-going, research suitable to implement the study. Since 1987, the Centro del Investigaciones del Mary la Atmdsfera (CIMA) has been usingregional models to study the response of meteorological systems in South America and in the Antarctic Peninsula to global climate change. Recent pilot studies have been conducted to model the South American climate, using a technique developed at CIMA, based on the simultaneous use of a regional model and a global model of variable resolution. CIMA i s currently runningan Atmosphere General Circulation Model (AGCM) coupled to an ocean model developed at IPSL, France, as well as a regional high-resolution model M M 5 developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), USA. Additionally, C I M A also has results from simulations from 1860-2000, which were performed using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model from the IPSL that also incorporates a carbon-model. 52 Annex 6 OverallProcurementRiskAssessment The Procurement Specialist concluded that the overall Procurement Risk was high due to the lack of experience of FB in contracting consulting firms under Bank Guidelines. In order to mitigate risks, the following prior review actions were recommended: Table B: Thresholds for Procurement Methods and Prior Review Contract Value Contracts Subject to Expenditure Category Threshold Procurement Prior Review (US$thousands) Method (US$ millions) 1. Goods <loo Shopping All 2. Consultant Services Firms >loo A11 QCBS/QBS < 100 LCS/SFB All < 100 ss All 2. Consultant Services Individuals >50 CQ All 4 0 co All Total value of contracts subject to prior review: US$0.891million Goods 0 Contracts using shopping will be subject to prior review The GEF grant would finance the purchase of office equipment (such as computers) to support project coordination and management. It is estimated that about US$O.Ol million of the GEF grant would be allocated to goods and equipment. These goods would be acquired by shopping, whereby at least three quotations will be requestedand the goods will be purchasedat a reasonableprice. Consultants' Services 0 All contractsoriginated ineach selection method will be subject to prior review The GEF grant would finance consulting services, including studies and technical assistance, for a total estimatedUS$0.853 million. Amount charged by the Recipient to carry out Part A of the Proiect The recipient of the GEF Grant, FB, will charge US$ 0.238 million to cany out Component A of this project. Procurement supervision will include an assessment of progress of all studies included in this component. Frequency of procurement supervision missions proposed One procurement supervision mission will be performed every year, which will include special procurement supervision for post-review/audits. Procurement supervision will be performed by the 53 Annex 6 Procurement Specialist (PS) and will include a review o f (i) PIU's capacity; (ii) procurement the the plan for the project, including a timetable for procurement actions anticipated duringthe next 12 months; (iii) PIU'smonitoringsystem;and(iv)completerecordsforoneineveryfivecontractsforconsultant the services. IncrementalOperatingCosts The grant would also finance operating costs of US$0.039 million, including workshop expenses, incremental staff, office supplies, and conference materials. 54 Annex 7 FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT AND DISBURSEMENT ARRANGEMENTS Enabling activity for SecondNational Communicationof Argentine Republic to the Convention on Climate Change FinancialManagement 1. SummaryoftheFinancialManagementAssessment A FinancialManagement Assessment of the FB was conducted by the Banks FinancialManagement Specialist (FMS) during the appraisal and negotiations mission. On the basis of the assessment performed, the financial management team concludes that upon completion of the proposed action plan the financial management of the FB, would satisfy the Bank minimum financial management requirements. 2. Audit Arrangements The PIU will maintain adequate financial management systems-including accounting, financing reporting and auditing systems-to ensure that they can provide the Bank accurate and timely information regarding project resources and expenditures in accordance with: (i) Financial the Accounting, Reporting and Auditing Handbook (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, May 1999); (ii) the Guidelines and Terms of Reference for Audits of Projects with Financingby the World Bank in Latin America (World Bank, May 1999); and (iii) the Bank's Operational Policy (OP) and Best Practice (BP) 10.02, dated July 1996. The PIU will contract an independent auditor, with qualifications acceptable to the Bank, to audit the records and accounts each fiscal year. The report by the auditor will be furnished to the Bank no later than six months after the end of each year. 3. DisbursementArrangements TableA: Allocationof GrantProceeds ExpenditureCategory Amount inUS$million FinancingPercentage 1. Goods 0.010 100%(net of taxes) 2. Consultant Services 0.853 100% 3. Amount chargedby the Recipient 0.238 100% to carryout Part A of the Project 4. OperatingCosts 0.039 100% Total 1.140 100% Specialaccount: 55 Annex 8 PROJECT PROCESSINGSCHEDULE Enablingactivityfor SecondNationalCommunicationofArgentineRepublicto the Conventionon Climate Change Project Schedule Planned Actual Timetaken to prepare the project (months) 6 FirstBankmission(identification) March 2002 Appraisal mission departure December 9,2002 Negotiations December 11,2002 PlannedDate of Effectiveness December 2003 Preparedby: Juan Lbpez-Silva, LCSEN Catalina Marulanda, LCSEN Bank staff who worked on the project included: Name Specialty Juan Lopez-Silva Task Manager Catalina Marulanda Environmental Consultant Angela Armstrong OperationsAnalyst Jose Simas Water Management / Environment / FloodPrevention StevenWilliam Oliver Agriculture Economist Robert RaglandDavis Agriculture / Forestry Pierre Graftieaux UrbanTransport LuisVaca-Soto Energy Antonio Leonard0 Blasco Financial Management Andres Mac Gaul Procurement Mariana M.Montiel Legal Jose Ramon Gomez Guerrero Consultant 56 Annex 9 57 DOCUMENTSINTHE PROJECTFILE* Enablingactivityfor SecondNationalCommunicationofArgentineRepublicto the Conventionon ClimateChange A. ProjectImplementationPlan Project Implementation Plan B. BankStaffAssessments Project Concept Document Water Resources Management - Policy Elements for Sustainable Development in the XXI Century Financial Management Assessment Procurement Assessment Procurement Plan C. Other FirstCommunication to the Framework Convention onClimate Change, 1995 Revisionto the FirstCommunication, 1997 *Including electronic files 57 Annex 10 STATEMENT OFLOANSAND CREDITS Enablingactivityfor SecondNationalCommunicationof ArgentineRepublicto the Conventionon ClimateChange 27-Oct-2003 Differencebetween expected Original Amount inUS$Millions and actual disbursementsa Project ID N Purpose IBRD IDA GEF Cancel Undisb. Orig Frm Rev'd Po73578 2003 AR-Jefes de Hog= Program 600.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 278.10 278.10 0.00 Po69913 2002 AR SantaFe ProvincialReform 330.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 126.70 126.70 0.00 Po70374 2002 AR PROFAM LIL 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.33 2.45 1.12 724447 2001 AR Catnmar:a Prminiial Rzrorm 70.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.30 25.00 25.00 Po49012 2001 GEF .ARR-\lmPoll Rev:nu:m 0.00 0.00 8.35 0.00 8.41 2.15 1.75 Po57473 2001 AR IKDIGESOCS CO\l!dC\"Y 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.66 3.56 0.00 Po64614 200I DE\'ELOP>lEVT 56.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 43.64 -13.35 0.00 Po68344 2001 4R. Second Se:ondary EJLarion Prnp;t 303.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 75.00 75.00 0.00 Po55482 2wo 4R CorJJbbPRL5 52.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.35 21.35 0.00 PO57449 1999 --Pub Hln Sur\ & DlsesreControl 30.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.10 23.10 0.00 Po06043 1999 AR Srat: >lidemndim 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.51 23.71 0.28 Po06058 1999 AR RE)iEH' EVERGY R.\lKTS 90.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 37.08 37.08 0.00 Po45048 1999 AR-SxisI Pro! 3 0.00 0.00 10.00 0.00 9.34 7.71 0.38 P006046 1999 GEF AR.RESE\\ =LE E\ERGY IS RCR4L 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.45 25.45 6.87 PO50713 1998 \l\RK 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.32 3.32 2.76 Po52590 1998 .AR WATER SCTR RFRM 450.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 117.03 117.03 12.91 Po55935 1998 .AR MODEL COCRT DEV 42.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.36 14.36 11.07 PO39787 1998 AR S AT HH'Y REH.AB&Al.UST 0.00 0.00 10.10 0.00 8.03 4.63 0.00 P006041 1998 4R EL SlSO E>lERGESCY FLOODPROJECT 75.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 32.71 32.71 11.87 PO06050 1998 GEF AR-BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION 18.00 0.00 0.00 12.00 3.85 15.85 9.85 Po39584 1997 AR SMALL FARMER DV. 200.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 122.38 121.38 37.99 Po40808 1997 AR POLLUTION MGT. 19.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.68 8.98 0.00 Po06052 1997 AR B.A.URB.TSP 200.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 91.33 91.33 17.23 PO36010 1997 AR N.FOREST/PROTC 125.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 99.63 96.27 75.91 PO35980 1997 AR FLOOD PROTECTION 300.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 179.89 179.89 100.0 Po06059 1997 AR PROV AG DEVT I 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.61 20.61 4 Po43418 1997 AR PROV ROADS 15.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.93 0.93 0.00 Po37049 1996 AR-Matemal &Child Hlth &Nutrition 2 16.00 0.00 0.00 5.50 5.03 10.53 0.00 wO6040 1996 AR-AIDS and STD Control 16.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.15 4.15 0.00 Po34091 1996 AR PUBINV.STRENGTHG 165.00 0.00 0.00 25.40 18.99 44.39 0.12 Po06057 1996 AR FORESTRYDV 115.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.53 21.53 44.39 Po06018 1995 AR-Higher Ed. Reform 225.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.49 16.49 0.00 Po06060 1995 AR-SECONDARY ED. 2 210.00 0.00 0.00 4.08 27.25 31.33 16.49 AR PROV DEVT I1 0.00 AR MUNIC DEVT Il Total: 3901.29 0.00 28.45 46.98 1507.18 1473.73 376.0 2 58 Annex 10 ARGENTINA STATEMENTOF IFC's HeldandDisbursedPortfolio As of 6l30l2003 (InUSDollarsMillions) Committed Disbursed IFC IFC FY Approval Company Loan Equity Quasi Partic Loan Equity Quasi Partic 2000 ASF 20.00 0.00 0.00 20.50 20.00 0.00 0.00 20.50 1998 AUTCL 5.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994/02 AceiteraGeneral 30.00 0.00 0.00 30.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 30.00 1960/95/97/99 Acindar 47.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 47.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 Aguas 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994195196 Alpargatas 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.50 1977/84/86/88/94/96 AmericanPlast 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 Arg EquityInv. 0.00 2.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.79 0.00 0.00 1993 ArgentinaSMMC 18.78 12.50 0.00 0.00 18.78 12.50 0.00 0.00 2000 BGN 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994/99 BSFE 4.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 BancoGalicia 50.00 0.00 0.00 245.00 SO.OO 0.00 0.00 245.00 Bansud 1.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996/99 BcoHiporecarin 25.00 0.00 0.00 102.50 25.00 0.00 0.00 102.50 1996 Brahma - ARG 2.14 0.00 8.50 0.00 2.14 0.00 8.50 0.00 2000 Bunge-Ceval 7.50 0.00 5.00 0.00 7.50 0.00 5.00 0.00 CAPSA 10.45 0.00 0.00 15.00 10.45 0.00 0.00 15.00 1996 CCI 0.00 20.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 6.00 0.00 1997 CEPA 6.67 0.00 3.00 1.20 6.67 0.00 3.00 1.20 1996 Cefas 10.00 0.00 5.00 0.00 6.00 0.00 5.00 0.00 1999 Cone0Argentino 52.18 6.82 5.18 0.00 52.18 6.82 5.18 0.00 1995 EDENOR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 F.V. S.A. 6.75 0.00 4.00 0.00 6.75 0.00 4.00 0.00 1999 FAlD 0.00 1.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.21 0.00 0.00 FAPLAC 10.00 0.00 5.00 0.00 10.00 0.00 5.00 0.00 0194 FRIAR 10.00 0.00 2.50 7.00 10.00 0.00 2.50 7.00 1998 Grunbaum 6.00 0.00 2.00 3.33 6.00 0.00 2.00 3.33 1998 HSBCArgentina 16.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 HospitalPrivado 9.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 1997 Huanaaico 0.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 KleppelCaldero 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995197 MalteriaPampa 0.50 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.50 0.00 1.00 0.00 1998 Mikaut 5.63 0.00 10.00 1.50 5.63 0.00 10.00 1.50 Minetti 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 Moiinos 30.00 0.00 0.00 30.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 30.00 1995/97 Nahuelsat 8.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992/93/96 NeuquenBasin 0.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.78 0.00 0.00 0197 NuevoCentral 0.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 1978/81/86/87/91/9316/~/00Patagonia 2.06 0.00 1.00 0.00 2.06 0.00 1.00 0.00 1993194103 PatagoniaFund 0.00 14.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.95 0.00 0.00 1995 Pecom 1.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996199 Quilmes 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 Rioplatense 5.33 1.00 0.00 1.67 5.33 1.00 0.00 1.67 1998 S.A. San Miguel 7.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 1998 1996 1994 1992 1999 TotalPortfolio: 517.32 109.38 83.18 564.70 510.62 82.03 83.18 564.70 Appro7ials PendingCommitment FY Approval Company Loan Equity Quasi Partic 2003 AGD I1-INCR 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 1999 American Plast 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 ArgentinaSMMC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.45 2004 Export Trust 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 Gasnor 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 2000 HipotecarioUSCP 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 ITBA 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 1998 Suquia CL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total PendingCommitment: 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.50 59 Annex 11 COUNTRYAT A GLANCE Enabling activity for Second National Communication of Argentine Republicto the Conventionon Climate Change 1982 1992 2001 2002 Growth of investment and GDP (?A) (% of GDP) Agriculture 9 6 6 0 4.8 10.6 40 Industry 41 1 30.7 266 31 9 2o Manufacturing 31 4 21.9 170 213 o Services 493 633 686 574 .20 Privateconsumption .. 81.9 73.9 64.8 -40 General government consumption 3.6 10.6 7.9 -GDI *GDP Imports of goods and services 6 5 8 1 102 125 L 1982-92 lgg2-02 2o01 I [Growth of exports and imports ("A) (average annualgrowth) 1 Agriculture 0.7 3.2 1.1 -2.3 40 Industry 0.0 2.1 -6.5 -13.5 2o Manufacturing 0.1 1.1 -7.4 -10.5 0 Services 1.1 3.3 -4.0 -9.2 .20 Private consumption 1.9 -4.8 -15.1 General government consumption 1.9 -2.1 Gross domestic investment 0.6 0.8 -15.7 -36.1 ports &Imports Imports of goods and services 8.1 6.3 -13.9 -49.7 ' I Annex 11 Argentina PRICESand GOVERNMENTFINANCE 1982 1992 2001 2002 Domesticprices Inflation(%) I (% change) 150- Consumerprices 164.8 24.9 -1.5 41.O 40 ImplicitGDP deflator 207.6 11.9 -1.1 30.8 30 20 Governmentfinance 10 (% of GDP,includescurrentgrants) 0 Currentrevenue 18.7 17.1 19.0 17.8 -10 Currentbudgetbalance -2.4 2.1 -2.3 -0.8 -GDP deflator I O - C P I Overallsurplus/deficit -9.6 1.3 -3.3 -3.0 I 7 TRADE 1982 1992 2001 2002 (US$ millions) Exportand import levels(US$ mill.) Total exports(fob) 12,399 26,610 25,709 Food 1,548 2,355 2,275 Meat 767 946 914 30,OW Manufactures 2,823 15,770 15,733 Total imports (cif) 14,982 20,321 8,989 20.000 Food 10,000 Fueland energy 510 841 480 Capital goods 6,479 4,182 1,319 0 Export price index (1995=100) 96 99 00 01 87 83 97 98 02 Importprice index (1995=100) 84 82 W Exports Imports Termsof trade (1995=100) 104 1 BALANCEof PAYMENTS I 1982 1992 2001 2002 (US$ millions) Currentaccountbalanceto GDP ("A) Exportsof goods andservices 9,185 15,382 30,940 28,643 Importsof goods and services 6,514 19,335 27,456 13,010 Resource balance 2,671 -3,952 3,484 15,633 Net income -5,056 -2,473 -8,243 -6,457 Net currenttransfers 0 770 281 414 Currentaccountbalance -2,367 -5,655 -4,477 9,590 Financingitems (net) 1,718 8,992 -16,929 -13,377 Changesin net reserves 669 -3,337 21,406 3,787 Memo: Reservesincludinggold (US$millions) 16,516 14,546 10,492 Conversionrate (DEC, local/US$) 1.o 1.o 3.1 EXTERNALDEBTand RESOURCEFLOWS 1982 1992 2001 2002 (US$ millions) 1Compositionof 2002 debt(US$ mill.) Total debt outstandingand disbursed 43,634 68,345 140,242 134,247 IBRD 504 2,505 9,440 8,513 IDA 0 0 I 0 0 G: 14,835 C: 14,253 Total debt service 4,876 4,882 24,012 5,826 IBRD 98 611 1,388 1,870 IDA 0 0 0 0 D:7,795 Compositionof net resourceflows Officialgrants 1 42 6 0 Officialcreditors 58 760 10,492 -1,851 Privatecreditors 2,755 38 -27,974 137 Foreigndirect investment 676 1,836 3,380 1,741 Portfolioequity 0 13 -9 -27 I F:84,595 World Bank program Commitments 0 1,004 436 250 A IBRD - E. Bilateral Disbursements 120 460 1,329 424 B IDA - D. Other multilateral F. Prlvate Principalrepayments 46 351 676 1,353 Net flows 74 109 653 -928 Interestpayments 36 216 668 512 Net transfers 38 -107 -15 -1,441 Development tconomics Y/NVUY 61 Annex 12-A-1 UPDATE OF NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORIES AND TRENDANALYSIS PRELIMINARY TERMS OF REFERENCE A. Background Inaccordancewith Articles 4 and 12of the UNFCCC, andtherelevant decisionsoftheCOP, allParties to the Convention must submit national Greenhouse Gas (GHG) inventories to the Climate Change secretariat. Inventories compile data on emissions of carbon dioxide (C02), methane (CK), nitrous oxide (N20),as well as Non Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOCs), CO, and NOx. Emission estimates are presented in accordance with the source categories of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changeguidelines for NationalGreenhouseGas Inventories (1996). The inventory focuses on emissions from the following sources: 1) energy use, and more specifically related to the following category of use (i)residential; (ii) commercial; (iii) (iv) industrial; and (iv) public; transport; 2) power generation; 3) land use change, including (i) agriculture; (ii) forestry; and (iii) native forests and vegetal cover; and 4) waste (i.e. solid waste, wastewater, and sewage). Guidelines are given by IPCC on the manner in which emissionstotals are to be estimatedand reported. The activities producing the largest shares of emissions correspond to: 1) combustion of fossil fuels, consistently releasing approximately 90% of the total C02 emissions and around 42% of the total GHG emissions of the country; 2) enteric fermentation, releasing 62% of methane emissions and 19% of total GHG emissions in 1997; and 3) management of agricultural soils, releasing 95% of total nitrous oxide emissions and 21% of total GHG emissions in 1997 (see Annex 13 for the most recent information on Argentine GHGemissions). The main objectives of this component of the project are to: 1) upgradeinventories of GHGemissions; 2) develop own factors of emissions; and 3) harmonize methodologies for developing energy balance and GHGemission inventories. All project components will beexecutedfollowing the new guidelines for the preparation of NationalCommunications accorded inCP.8. GHG inventory update The existing inventories of GHG emissions published in 1999 with data from 1997 will be updated with data from the year 2000. National GHG inventories will be estimated and reported using the Revised 1996 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. This will involve: i)gathering information from all relevant sectors; ii)processingdata using IPCC methodological tools; iii)reviewing and adjusting national emission factors; and iv) analyzing evolving GHGemission trends and cross sector evaluation. Comparative analysis of previous and current GHG inventories Argentina is one of the few countries in the world that will have performed four inventories of GHG emissions covering the period 1990-2000. Consequently, a detailed assessment and analysis of the evolution of emissions, by sector, will be conducted. This analysis aims at identifying current trends of GHGemissions, as well as main drivers of their changingpatterns. Using pertinent socio-economic data, a series of indicators will subsequently be generated. These indicators will reflect the evolution of emissions by economic activity, relative to population. Results will illustrate the evolution of emissions duringthe period 1990-2000. B. Objectives To update 1990-1994and 1997 inventory of GHGemissions To producethe 2000 GHG inventory 62 Annex 12-A-1 0 To compare GHGinventories from 1990-1994and 1997to that from 2000 0 To establishemission trends, by economic sector C. Activities 1. Review all published UNFCCC guidelines for the development of the inventories 2. Review methodology followed to perform 1990-1994 and 1997emissionsinventory 3. Identify and correct methodological errors 4. Gather information from all sectors to be included inthe inventory 5. Process data following IPCC procedures, formats and standards 6. Review and adjust, when necessary andfollowing guidelines, national emissions factors 7. Review and adjust existing informationon localemission factors 8. Review 1990-1999, 1997, and 2000 GHGemissions inventories 9. Gather all existing GHG inventories and ensure compatibility of figures (Le. methodology for estimating emissions) 10. Determine all sources and sinks of GHGby sector 11. Identify critical issues inevolution of emissions(i.e. economic, technological, policy-related) 12. Analyze and assessthe evolution of emissions 13. Compare emissions through the 1990-2000decade and highlight significant trends D. Expectedoutputs 1. GHGemissionsinventory for the year 2000 2. Analysis of Argentine emissions trends duringthe 1990-2000decade 63 Annex 12-A-2 DEVELOPMENTOF NATIONALFACTORSOF EMISSIONS PRELIMINARYTERMS OF REFERENCE A. Background InaccordancewithArticles 4 and 12of the UNFCCC, andthe relevant decisions ofthe COP, allParties to the Convention must submit national Greenhouse Gas (GHG) inventories to the Climate Change secretariat. Inventories compile data on emissions of carbon dioxide (COz), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N20),as well as Non Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOCs), CO, and NOx. Emission estimates are presented in accordance with the source categories of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change guidelines for NationalGreenhouseGas Inventories (1996). The inventory focuses on emissions from the following sources: 1) energy use, and more specifically relatedto the following category of use (i)residential; (ii) commercial; (iii) (iv) industrial; and (iv) public; transport; 2) power generation; 3) land use change, including (i) agriculture; (ii) forestry; and (iii) native forests and vegetal cover; and 4) waste (ie. solid waste, wastewater, and sewage). Guidelines are given by IPCC on the manner inwhich emissionstotals are to be estimated and reported. The activities producing the largest shares of emissions correspond to: 1) combustion of fossil fuels, consistently releasing approximately 90% of the total COzemissions and around 42% of the total GHG emissions of the country; 2) enteric fermentation, releasing 62% of methane emissions and 19% of total GHG emissions in 1997; and 3) management of agricultural soils, releasing 95% of total nitrous oxide emissions and 21% of total GHG emissions in 1997 (see Annex 13 for the most recent information on GHGemissions). The mainobjectives of this componentof the project are to: 1)upgrade inventories of GHGemissions; 2) develop own factors of emissions; and 3) harmonize methodologies for developing energy balance and GHGemission inventories. All project componentswill be executedfollowing the new guidelines for the preparation of National Communications accorded in CP.8. B. Objectives To develop national emissionfactors for industry, transport, andpower generation C. Activities 1. Determineall sources andsinksof GHGby sector 2. Evaluate current factors of emissionsutilized in previous GHGemission inventories 3. Use classification for energy use from International Energy Agency 4. Identify fuel consumption pattemsper technology per category 5. Determine scope of analysis within budget range 6. Measurefuel use 7. Measure tailpipe emissionsfrom selectedtechnologies and equipment type 8. Calculate factors of emissions and perform sensitivity analysis 9. Compare with intemational standardand calibrate D. Expectedoutputs 1. Identificationof all emission factors used in former GHG emission inventories 2. Local factors of emissions per selectedtechnology 64 Annex 12-A-3 HARMONIZATIONOF METHODOLOGIES FOR NATIONAL ENERGY BALANCESAND GHGEMISSIONINVENTORIES PRELIMINARYTERMS OF REFERENCE A. Background Inaccordance with Articles 4 and 12of the UNFCCC, andtherelevant decisions of the COP, all Parties to the Convention must submit national Greenhouse Gas (GHG) inventories to the Climate Change secretariat. Inventories compile data on emissions of carbon dioxide (COz), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N20),as well as Non Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOCs), CO, and NOx. Emission estimates are presented in accordance with the source categories of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change guidelines for NationalGreenhouseGas Inventories (1996). The inventory focuses on emissions from the following sources: 1) energy use, and more specifically related to the following category of use (i) residential; (ii) commercial; (iii) (iv) industrial; and (iv) public; transport; 2) power generation; 3) land use change, including(i) agriculture; (ii) and (iii) forestry; native forests and vegetal cover; and 4) waste (i.e. solid waste, wastewater, and sewage). Guidelines are given by IPCC on the manner in which emissions totals are to be estimatedand reported. The activities producing the largest shares of emissions correspond to: 1) combustion of fossil fuels, consistently releasing approximately 90% of the total C02emissions and around 42% of the total GHG emissions of the country; 2) enteric fermentation, releasing 62% of methane emissions and 19% of total GHG emissions in 1997; and 3) management of agricultural soils, releasing 95% of total nitrous oxide emissions and 21% of total GHG emissions in 1997 (see Annex 13 for the most recent information on GHGemissions). The main objectives of this component of the project are to: 1)upgradeinventories of GHG emissions; 2) develop own factors of emissions; and 3) harmonize methodologies for developing energy balance and GHGemission inventories. All project components will be executedfollowing the new guidelines for the preparation of NationalCommunications accorded inCP.8. Evaluation of National Energy Balances This activity involves the evaluation of modifications neededby the existingNational Energy Balances in order to make them compatible with Inventory Emission Source Categories. Currently, the energy balance structure groups energy consumption for commercial, public, and residential sub-sectors under one single category, while the GHG emissions inventory separates it into the three groups. Since the methodology for building the energy balances has been applied for years, the study proposes to identify any adjustment and modification that should be incorporated in the elaboration of the National Energy Balances, in order to makethem compatible with the emissions inventories. B. Objectives To evaluate National Energy Balances and make them compatible with the categories of the inventory of emissions C. Activities 1. Review 1990-1999, 1997, and2000 GHGemissions inventories 2. Review IPCC guidelines and definition of emission source categories. Compare to those used for the existing National Energy Balances 3. Assess necessary modifications to the National Energy Balances to make them compatible with categoriesof emissions inventories 4. Obtain additional data necessary to convert NationalEnergy Balances 5. Compute Harmonized National Energy Balances 6. Proposeguidelines to change the methodology for computation of National Energy Balances 65 Annex 12-A-3 D. Expectedoutputs 1. Harmonized NationalEnergy Balances 66 Annex 12-B-1 VULNERABILITY OF THE COASTAL ZONE PRELIMINARYTERMS OF REFERENCE A. Background The FirstNational Communication of the Argentinean Government to the UNFCCC of 1997 proposed to evaluate the coastal vulnerability of the country to the impacts of climate change. The scope of the final analysis was restricted to the ocean coastline of the Buenos Aires province and to the Bahia de Samborombdn inthe Rio de la Plata basin. The final report concluded that the region would be severely affected by any change in sea level, and that even a small raise of the ocean level would cause major flooding of the planes on the valley of the Rio Salado. Moreover, it was found that an increase of the base level of the river could decrease the drainage potential for the entire province, which could subsequentlylead to flooding of one of the most prominent agricultural areas of the country. The First National Communication was useful to assess the magnitude of potential impacts of climate change on a portion of the coastal areas of the Rio de la Plata, an estuary where the mean water level is less than one meter over the nearby sea level. Nonetheless, the studies conducted did not evaluate the vulnerability of the entire coastline of the Rio de la Plata. Given the economic and social importance of the region, a more in-depth analysis of its vulnerability to potential climatic changes i s justified, and will be conducted as part of the Second National Communication. This component of the study will thus build on results from the First National Communication and will address the vulnerability to climate change of the coastline of the Rio de la Plata, in particular the region located to the north west of the Bahia de Samborombdn. Although the region occupies less than 10% of the total area of the country, it . i s the most important urban center and houses almost 40% of the total population. The area's high population density makes it particularly vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change. Given the impact on the coastal environment that a changing climate entails, this specific study component will focus on the response of the coastline of the Rio de la Plata. The study will focus on two areas: 1) Gran Buenos Aires; and 2) the Parand delta. Gran Buenos Aires area The GranBuenos Areas region is locatedinthe northern part of the Buenos Aires province. Several facts contribute to persistent flooding of the area. First, flooding of the Parand river, caused by heavy precipitations during spring and summer. Floods are of long duration, such that in certain zones, unusually high water levels can exist for several months. When precipitations are high, internal tributaries of the Parand and Uruguay rivers flood, making the overflow conditions at the larger rivers even more delicate. Second, the flatness of the region accentuates drainage problems. The third factor contributing to flooding of the region are the sudestadas,which are Atlantic storms characterized by very strong winds, persistent precipitation, and low temperatures. These Atlantic winds are of high velocity and are believed to raise water levels in the region. The area of Gran Buenos Aires comprises two zones, the Regidn Pampeana and arelatively small strip of land bordering the Parand river. Both sub-regions are characterized by the absence of topographic relief and by flat slopes. Precipitation rates oscillate between 800 and 1000 d y r . The area is windy, with currents from the Atlantic bringing moisture, and cool winds from the South bringing freezing temperatures. The characteristics of the Regidn Pampeana are described in a later section. The strip along the Paranci river has a zone of high elevations, where flooding is not a concern. As the river banks are approached however, this high zone abruptly ends in steep cliffs and the low side is greatly affected by both flooding of the river and by precipitation events. Various settlements exist in this zone of risk of the Parand, most of which are of precarious nature, where inhabitants live exposedto the risks imposed by changing climate. The delta region The delta region extends from the Paranci river towards the North into the province of Entre Rios. It is a region of low elevations underlain by sedimentary soils that were deposited by the Parand river. The delta i s characterizedby the presence of islands of very dense vegetation, the interior of which is usually 67 Annex 12-B-1 covered by water. A second characteristic i s the presence of numerous rivers and streams that cut across the entire region. Due to its very flat slope, the delta is constantly subjected to inundations. The climate o f the delta i s temperate, and precipitation rates are in the order of 950 d y r . The area i s subjected to strong winds from the South and the Southeast, which tend to drive recurrent precipitation events. Rains caused by the action of Southern winds, referred to as Pamperos, are of high intensity but of short duration. Southeast Atlantic winds drive the Sudestadas, with persistent precipitations but of lesser intensity than that caused by the Pamperos. The sudestadas have a profound effect on the hydrologic characteristics o f the delta. The Parand delta i s currently growing towards the city of Buenos Aires at a pace o f 40 d y r , as a result o f sediment deposition by the Bermejo andthe Pilcomayo rivers. These rivers originate inthe Andean peaks o f Argentina and Bolivia, where steep slopes and high stream velocities cause erosion o f the underlying rock. The sediments produced are transported downstream and deposited in flat areas. It i s estimated that approximately 100 million tons of sediments are transported each year into the Paraguay and Parand rivers, although not exclusively by the Bermejo. At the present rate of expansion, it i s estimated that the Parand delta will reach the suburbs of Buenos Aires inapproximately 100-150years. B. Objectives To determine the effects of climate change on the water level along the northern coastline of the Rio de la Plata, particularly the coastline of the Gran Buenos Aires area To review and compile existing information regarding flooding along the coastline o f the Gran Buenos Aires andthe expansion of the Parand Delta To determine the effects of flooding of the Parand basin on the Gran Buenos Aires area To assess the influence of climate change on the expansion of the Parand Delta on the coastline of the Rio de la Plata To evaluate the effects of the expansion of the Parand Delta on its floodplains To generate simulations of potential climate change scenarios for the area To assess socio-economic impacts of climate change on the Gran Buenos Aires area C. Activities 1. Review and compile existing studies, reports, measurements and predictions of flooding along the Gran Buenos Aires coastline and of the expansion o f the Parand Delta 2. Findhistoric records of local characteristics of the Rio de la Plata and Rio Parand, including seasonal streamflows and water levels 3. Find historic records of seasonal precipitation, of major storm events, and of local flooding events. Determine whether correlations between rainfall and flooding can be established and how trends have changed inthe previous century 4. Determine the seasonal trends in strength and direction of the winds, both the sudestadas and the pamperos. Find historic records and determine whether these trends have changed over the past century, and whether they can be correlated to flooding o f the region 5. Document effects attributed to ENS0 on the coastline of the Rio de la Plata and the banks of the Rio Parand duringthe previous century 6. Map the historic progression o f the coastline of the Rio de la Plata. Inparticular: (a) Determine (i)if and by how much the coastline has receded; (ii) if current patterns have changed; (iii) if inlets have formed; and (iv) if major sediment transport has occurred (Le. sand andbottom sediments). (b) Determine whether breakwaters or other containment structures have been built and map their location (c) Find historic records of phreatic surface levels in the vicinity of the coastline and document level changes though the years (d) Establish locations where groundwater pumping i s conducted and determine pumping trends (e) Evaluate the condition of regional groundwater aquifers 68 Annex 12-B-1 (f) Assess the magnitude of the damages caused by the occurrence of saltwater intrusion (g) Map the movement of the boundary between saltwater and fresh water (h) Map historic population migration and settlements along the coastline o f the Rio de la Plata 7. Map historic progression of the front of the Parand delta, as well as changes in the location of the banks of the Rio Parand 8. Findrecords of sediment loads in the Bermejo and Pilcomayo rivers and determine how these have changes over the previous century. 9. Determine whether the streamflows at the sources of the Bermejo and Pilcomayo have increased as a result of higher rainfall, which would account for increasing erosion and therefore higher sediment transport 10. Document the occurrence of landslides or other instabilities along the banks of the Parana' river 11. Locate existing man-made structures and document performance duringsevere rainfall events 12. Map historic population migration and settlements along the banks of the Rio de la Plata 13. Conduct Regional Climate Model simulations (under predetermined carbon scenarios) to evaluate projected changes in water level on the coastline of the Rio de la Plata and the banks o f the Rio Parana'. Predictions should be made at intervals of 15-20 years, unless results show a more rapidtrend of changes 14. Evaluate the relative benefits of population relocation (or settlement control) versus drainage infrastructure development 15. Assess costs of damages caused by flooding in the area and by the expansion of the delta 16. Evaluate changes in local productivity as a result of changing climatic pattems and of the deterioration they have caused D. ExpectedOutputs 1. Assessment of the specific changes inclimatic conditions inthe area and on the occurrence of natural disasters. Positive correlations may exist but need to be carefully evaluated 2. Clear assessment of the occurrence of degradation of coastline and river banks 3. Evaluation of predictions of sea-level rise in the area 4. Mapping of potential zones of risk from results of climate change simulations 5. Assessment of the relative importance of changes in climatic events, ENSO, and population settlement on the occurrence o f naturaldisasters in the area 6. Guidelines for the development of adaptation measures to reduce the impact of changing climate conditions on local settlements and on the coastline of the Rio de la Plata 7. Regional socio-economic impacts of climate change 69 Annex 12-B-2 VULNERABILITY OF THE PAMPA BONAERENSE PRELIMINARYTERMS OFREFERENCE A. Background The Pampa Bonaerense or Pampa Hdmeda is located in the Buenos Aires province. It shares the topographic characteristics of the Pampa region, namely widespread flat slopes and a virtual lack of topographic features. The climate of the region i s temperate, with annual precipitations typically ranging from 600 to 1000 mm. The region has traditionally been subjected to wet-dry cycles, which cause alternating periods of flooding and drought. The severity of flooding events in the past twenty years has increased, with resulting economic and environmental impacts on the area. Droughts have also become more frequent, causing permanent damage to the soils. In addition to the problems associated with surface water resources, unsustainable practices in the area have led to the over-exploitation and contamination of groundwater aquifers. Flooding in the region occurs primarily along the plains of one of its most prominent rivers, the Rio Salado. The drainage basin of the Rio Salado also includes the Rio Samborombo'n, along with an extensive network of streams and lakes. Given the low regional gradients, the system carries large volumes of water at very low velocities. Two characteristics of the area aggravate drainage conditions duringhigh-intensity rainfalls and contribute to the extent of inundations: 1)rainfall is often accompanied by strong winds that drive floodwater further inland, away from river banks; and 2) phreatic levels are typically very close to the surface, which limits the water retention capacity o f the soils. Excess water has therefore no pathway for drainage and accumulates on the surface creating enormous, flat floodplains. Evapotranspiration is often the only mechanism for water to be evacuated, which explains the long residence times of floodwaters. Damages are often considerable due to the destruction of crops, infrastructure, animal and even human life. Conversely, during periods of drought, waterways tend to decay and typically lead to the death of vegetation and the loss of surface cover. Windy conditions in the area subsequently cause surface erosion, through processes of suspension, transport, and re-deposition of local sediments. Additionally, duringthe dry periods, evaporationof the upper water table, typically close to the ground surface, leads to salinization of the soils. Even short periods of drought result in noticeable deterioration of the soils, changes in the area's ecosystems and in the human activities associated with them. The state of groundwater resources in the Pampa Bonaerense is also a matter o f concern given their particularly poor management. The overexploitation of groundwater aquifers has already created serious environmental problems in the past and will continue to jeopardize future subsurface water resources. Three interconnected aquifers exist in the province, the Puelches, the Pampeano, and the Parana'. Pumpingfrom the Pampeano aquifer is limited, due to its low yield and to the poor quality of the water, which has been contaminated by municipal and industrial pollution. The Puelches aquifer has been so extensively exploited that during the 1980s, the regional groundwater flow regime was inverted. Problems of saltwater intrusion along the coastline of the Rio de la Plata and o f contamination of drinkingwater wells were prevalent at the time. Polluted drinkingwater wells were then shut down and water was extracted from the Rio de la Plata. This water supply regime ultimately led to the risingo f the phreatic surface levels inthe region, a factor that i s now exacerbates the flooding potential o f the area. The use of supplementary irrigation for agricultural purposes in the region has also been an important cause of over-pumping of the Puelches and Pampeano aquifers. The province of Buenos Aires i s second inthe country interms of irrigated surface, with approximately 180,000 hectares covered in2000, a figure that continues to grow at a fast rate. Aquifers continue to be pumped at excessive rates, further compromising future supplies o f groundwater. 70 Annex 12-B-2 B. Objectives To collect existing information on frequency and intensity of wet-dry cycles in the Pampa Bonaerense To achieve an adequate assessment of the sensitivity of water resources to climate fluctuations To determine the impact of human action on region's ability to adapt to extreme climatic events To determine the need to regulate water resource exploitation and land use change To define mitigation strategies aimed at reducing the negative impacts of extreme climate conditions in the area To assess socio-economic impacts of climate change on the PampaBonaerense C. Activities 1. Collect historic records of cycles of rainfall and drought in the Pampa Bonaerense over the past century. Particular focus should be given to: (a) Duration of cycles (b) Increasing frequency (c) Severity of extremes (i.e. records of temperature variations and volumes of rainfall) (d) Characterization of extent and magnitude of the damages, particularly from flooding inruralareas aroundBuenosAires 2. Obtain records of streamflows of the Salado and Pilcomayo rivers, and particularly of their variations duringextreme climate events 3. Characterize wind pattems in the region and determine the influence of winds on damaging weather events 4. Map temporal variations of phreatic surface levels and document known historic changes 5. Characterize the hydraulic properties of regional soils 6. Document land use changes in the area, and focus particularly on water needs of present and past crops. This specific activity will complement studies of the agricultural vulnerability of the Pampa Hlimeda 7. Establish water pumpingand irrigation pattems inthe region 8. Document occurrence of soil degradation (Le. salinization and erosion) 9. Determine extent and occurrence of groundwater contamination 10. Document drainage infrastructure development and the effectiveness of man-made drainage structures 11. Evaluate mitigation options against floods including, amongst others: (a) Additional drainage or containment structures (b) Potential storage capacity of regional surface water bodies (c) Diversion of excess waters to the coast (d) Re-zoning of crops and improvements to the use of the land 12. Evaluate mitigation options against cycles of drought, which may consist o f (a) Planning of sustainable, supplementary irrigation practices (b) Changes incrops 13. Estimate costs of damages caused by regional flooding and drought events 14. Estimate costs of productivity changes in the Pampa Bonaerenseas a result of changes in the conditions of soil and water resources D. Expected outputs 1. Assess the relative impact of human action and climate variations on the occurrence of flood and drought periods inthe PampaBonaerense 2. Determine the likelihood that climate change may indeed be causing increases in both the frequency and the magnitude of wet-dry cycles inthe area 3. Evaluatethe extent of soil degradation in the region and identify areas of risk 4. Assess the potential of the area's water resources, and particularly groundwater resources, to maintain an adequate supply duringperiods of drought 71 Annex 12-B-2 5. Determine the need to impose policies on pumpingand irrigation in the GreaterBuenosAires area 6. Determine the needto introduce guidelines on landuse change 7. Recommend mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of flooding and droughts on the Pampa Bonaerense 8. Regional social and economic impacts of climate change 72 Annex 12-B-3 VULNERABILITY OF AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION INTHEPAMPAHUMEDA PRELIMINARYTERMS OF REFERENCE A. Background The Pampa Hzimeda covers approximately 45 million hectares (about 18% of the country's total land area) and i s one of the most important areas of natural resources for temperate agriculture on earth. From the late 19" century, the expansion of agriculture and its articulation with international trade made it the engine of Argentina's economic growth. Agriculture' inthe Pampa Hzimeda contributes the major part of Argentina's agricultural exports and contributes approximately 80% of the country's agricultural output. Over 90% of Argentina's soybean production, between 80 and 90% of the corn, wheat, sorghum, barley, and sunflower production of the country take place in this area. The Pampa Hzimeda i s highly fertile and has access to abundant water resources. Production in the Pampa Hzimeda typically consists o f joint grain-oilseed-livestock practices, with each activity competing for land, and where their relative partitioning depend on factors such as prices, weather conditions, etc. Grain and oilseed are in fact both competitors and compliments to cattle raising, since the rotation of crops and pastures ensures soil fertility. Economic reforms enacted in Argentina in the early 1990s created a macro-economic environment more favorable to agricultural investment, production and exports, and gave rise to sectoral growth of 6% per p.a. between 1992-2000. The total area of cultivated land increased, accompanied by an increase in the use of agricultural inputs, machinery, and new varieties of seed, among which were transgenic species. Farmers throughout the country responded strongly to the new policies, and, agricultural production systems changed. These changes have defined a new baseline scenario, in which the vulnerability o f the agricultural sector to climatic changes needs to be re-evaluated. The new practices have drastically improved agricultural production over the past decade, but their effects on the soils and the subsequent response of these to climatic variations have not been investigated. Changes in agricultural practices can be separated into: a) changes in land use; and b) changes in crop management. In one single year, from 1995/96 to 1996/97, Argentina's total harvested area for major field crops increased by 16%. Increases in harvested area resulted from the incorporation of new land, the conversion of pastures to crop production, or the shift in traditional crop-livestock rotation patterns to a more crop-oriented use. Soybean production for instance, presents the most dramatic example of increasingcultivated area, with an average yearly area expansion of 6.8% duringthe 1990s. Changes in crop management included several factors, most important of which was the increase in the use of agricultural inputs. The use of fertilizers, for example, increased by a factor o f five from 1991 to 1996, while that of other agrochemicals increased by threefold during the same period. Argentina's corn and wheat yields increased by approximately 50% and 75% , respectively, between 1991 and 2001, primarily due to the increased use of fertilizers. Along with chemicals, the use o f machinery, such as tractors and harvesters, and of irrigation equipment also increased, improving crop yields. Lastly, shifts in crop management brought about the incorporation of biotech varieties of seed, which have, in some cases, greatly reduced production costs. Once more, the case of soybean i s illustrative of this trend. Since the 1990s, a rapid rise in the use of "Roundup Ready" soybean varieties has taken place. It is estimated that 90% of the soybean crop of 2001 i s planted to biotech varieties, which greatly reduced the costs of weed control, mature early, and help to reduce weather risks. These characteristics are clearly attractive to farmers, since they reduce labor and time and they increase cost savings. Inaddition, early crop maturity, combined with the introductionof no-till cropping, has resulted in more intensive landuse, as soybeans are double-cropped with wheat. The combination of all these factors resulted in the growth of soybean production by an estimated yearly average of 8% duringthe 1990s. Over the long term, the structure of agriculture has shown great flexibility in its capacity to adapt to technological change and altered relative prices and profitability of different activities. The challenge for ' For the purposesof this study, agricultureincludescrop production, livestockraising, forestry, and horticulture. 1 3 Annex 12-B-3 the Argentine agricultural sector as a whole is to maintain production costs low, such as to sustain their competitive level in international markets. Implementation of practices such as no-till cropping, which drastically reduce fuel consumption, or the use of biotech seeds, which reduce the cost of weed control, are likely to spread. At the same time, the sustainable use of natural resources i s of key importance to economic recovery. Over a large part of its area, the Pampa Hu'medai s highly deficient in terms o f natural drainage, and the flooding of land, as a result of heavy rain within the area and high water levels which occur cyclically in the Paranti river system, has a serious impact on production. Other climatic factors (e.g., the occurrence of periodic drought, crop-damaginghail and highwinds) are also important. The management of climate- generated risk is not well developed (for example, through crop insurance) and studies are under way to understand and quantify the pattern of risks as a first step towards the development o f insurance and other market-based instruments. In carrying out the study, the consultant would be expected to liaise closely with the Oficina de Riesgo Agropecuario at SAGPyA2 in order to incorporate the results of the work being done, particularly that concerning the preparationo f the "agricultural risk maps" (mapasde riesgo). Agricultural activity itself produces green-house gasses (GHGs) which contribute to climate change, Thus, agriculture is both highly susceptible to climatic conditions and, at the same time, contributes to the generation of the factors driving climate change. B. Objectives The purpose of the study i s to analyze the vulnerability of the agricultural sector in the Pampa Hzimedato climate change, and to quantify the net effect of agricultural activity on the production of GHG. Accordingly, the objectives of the study are: 0 To analyze the structure of agricultural production and natural resource use in the Pampa Hzimeda 0 To identify the actual and potential contribution of agricultural activity to factors generating climate change e To identify the potential impact of climate change on the present structure of production 0 To evaluate the potential of agriculture to respondto climate change 0 To determine the socio-economic impacts of these potential changes in the structure of production C. Activities The study would be carried out by building a model of land use for the Pampa Hu'meda, analyzing in detail the technical structure o f agricultural production and simulating a number of scenarios correspondingto plausible occurrences of climate change. The following activities will be carried out: 1 The study should be based on a Geographic Information System (GIS) covering the whole of the study area, the principle basic information layers of which should be: (a) a topographical map-base at a scale of at least 1:100,000; (b) soils data at reconnaissance or semi-detailed soil survey level; (c) climatic data; and (d) hydrological data. 2 The GIS would be used to carry out a series of physical simulations, including the definition o f the extent of flooding of land as a result (a) of increased rainfall within the study area, and (b) of increased flows of the river systems in response to increased rainfall outside the study area, under various scenarios. 3 Argentina can be divided into six major ecological zones3, o f which the study area i s one. For the study area, the GIS would include as a further information layer the major agro-ecological regions and sub-regions based on the classification shown in Table 12-B-3 (or on any other suitable classification to be presented in the proposal). Based on this regionalhub-regional classification, a detailed description would be made of existing land use, defining the areas under permanent Secretaria deAgricultura, Ganaderia, Pesca y Alimentacio'n These are: the North-east, the North-west, the Pampa, the West, Patagonia, and the territories of Antarctica. 74 Annex 12-B-3 cultivation, permanent pastures, cultivationin rotationwith pastures, forestry and other uses, to arrive at a complete inventory of landuse in the study area. The inventory would include estimates of land under different forms of permanent agriculture and double cropping, the use o f conventional vs. minimudno tillage systems, soil degradation both structural and chemical, etc. 4 Detailed analyses would be made of the farming systems employed and the technical "production functions" utilized in each agricultural activity. This should be disaggregated at the level o f the agro- ecological region and sub-region to the extent necessary. The objective would be to define input/output matrices for each activity in each region and sub-region that: (a) capture the technical elements of production that affect the drivers of climate change (e.g., production and liberation of GHGs, carbon sequestration), including fossil fuel and fertilizer use; and (b) describe the degree of susceptibility to climate change (e.g., changes in ambient temperature, changes in rainfall regime including amount and distribution). The use of different technical "production functions" utilized within a given region or sub-region would be analyzed (e.g., the use of conventional cultivation cJ: minimumand zero-tillage methods). 5 Farmbudget and enterprise (activity) analysis would be made to estimate production costs, revenues, and gross and net margins. The changes in relative product prices and gross margins over the period 1990-2002 would be compared with the changes in planted areas and yields to derive: (a) data on the elasticities of substitution between crop production and livestock, and between individual crops; and (b) data on the use of landat the margin. D. Expected outputs 1 Determine the actual and potential contribution of agricultural activity to factors generating climate change: the present production of GHG would be estimated, and the scope for introducing technical changes to the systems of production to reduce their output would be discussed. 2 Evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the present structure of production: the possible effects on production of plausible scenarios of climate change would be calculated through the model. 3 Evaluate the potential of agriculture to respond to climate change: the macro-level changes (e.g., in the distribution of land use between activities and in farming systems) and the micro-level changes (e.g., inthe technological production aspects of individual crops and products) should be quantified. 4 Determine the socio-economic impacts of these potential changes inthe structure of production. Table 12-B-3. The Pampa Hfimeda: Agro-Ecological Regions and Sub-regions Region Sub-region Pampa sub-tropical linera Ca Concepci6n del Uruguay C a l Parani Ca2 Santa Fe Ca3 Pampa sub-tropical alfalfera Cb Rafaela Cb1 Ceres Cb2 Pampa sub-tropical manicera Cc Rio Tercer0 c c1 C6rdoba ciudad cc2 Pampa agricola norte Cd Maicera Cd1 Triguera de Santa Fe - C6rdoba Cd2 9 de Julio Cd3 Pampa agricola sur Ce Balcarce Ce1 Azul Ce2 Loberia Ce3 Tres Arroyos Ce4 Coronel Sudrez Ce5 Guamini Ce6 Bahia Blanca Ce7 75 Annex 12-B-3 Region Sub-region Necochea Ce8 Faro Encalada Ce9 Pampaoccidental Cf Rio Cuarto C f l Laboulaye Cf2 Trenque Lauquen Cf3 Huinca Renanco Cf4 Pampadeprimida Cg LujAn Cgl Llavallol cg2 Dolores cg3 Las Flores cg4 Tapaique'n cg5 Laprida Cg6 Costay delta del Paran6y La Plata Ch Costa de la Plata Ch1 Rosario Ch2 Delta interior Ch3 Delta superior Ch4 76 Annex 12-B-4 VULNERABILITY OF WATER RESOURCESINTHE LITORAL-MESOPOTAMIA PRELIMINARY TERMS OF REFERENCE A. Background The Litoral-Mesopotamia comprises six provinces in the humidregion of the country, towards the north eastern part of Argentina. The area is, in hydrographic terms, the richest o f the country, comprising almost the entire basin o f the Rio Parand and its main effluents Uruguay and Paraguay, including a portion of the Rio de la Plata basin. Severe precipitation events have traditionally caused flooding in the area. However, over the past two decades, both the frequency and the intensity of precipitations have increased, leading to flooding events of major consequences. Predictions o f the effects of global warming on the Argentine climate vary considerably depending on the model and on the emissions scenario used to make them. The resulting impact on water resources is therefore difficult to assess, especially considering the drastically variable climatic and hydrographic characteristics of the country. Inthe humidregions, precipitation i s typically abundant, and the need for drainage infrastructure has traditionally been much more pressing than that for supplemental irrigation duringthe summer. Inthe aridzones, conversely, the presence of irrigation systems is crucial. It is anticipated that global warming will lead to an increase of atmospheric temperatures of unknown magnitude. Higher temperatures, in turn, may result in the increase of atmospheric moisture, as the capacity of the air to take up water increases, which will ultimately result in more frequent precipitation events. Although not confirmed by all existing predictions of climate change in Argentina, it i s likely that global warming will cause an increase in rainfall in the humid areas of the country. Desert areas could, conversely, become drier, an event that inrelative terms would result in less serious conditions. Statistical analyses have shown that streamflow values in the ParandParaguay basin have increased in the last third o f the 1900s, relative to values recorded during the first two thirds of the century. Local precipitation rates have also noticeably increased during the same period. The combined effects of these two phenomena have led to flooding and inundations o f particular severity. Records show that, in the case of the Parand river for example, there have been 16 flooding events (inexcess of 30,000 m3/s)from the years 1904 to 2000. Of those 16 events, seven have occurred in the past 20 years and 3 in the last 10 years. Inthe case of the Uruguay river, 17flooding events (over 24,000 m3/s)have taken place duringthe period of 1898 to 1998, six of which have occurred in the past 10years. From 1940 to 2000 the Bermejo river has undergone 20 flooding events, 10inthe last 20 years and four in the past 10years. The cause of these events i s not known with certainty, although various explanations have been provided. Climate change has been suggested as a possible reason for the increasing rainfall in the region, although no concrete evidence has been yet presented that supports that claim. On the other hand, EL NiAo/LaNiAa Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, which have become more frequent and more intense over the last decade, have also been associated with increasing precipitation and drastic climatic events. The relationship between the occurrence of EL Niiio and changes in precipitation patterns and streamflows, in different regions of South America, has not been entirely formulated. Nonetheless, it has been noted, for example, that duringthe years o f El NiAo precipitation in the Pampa Hu'meda increases. The same trend has been observed in years of no NiAo however, and therefore the link i s not direct. Duringthe years of La Niria onthe contrary, the streamflow of the Bermejo river tends to increase. B. Objectives Assessment of the historical climatic trends of the region Assessment of hydrological characteristics in the region and o f their possible response to changing climatic conditions 77 Annex 12-B-4 0 Development o f strategies to protect natural resources against the detrimental effects of climate change Evaluation of human settlement and land management practices and their impact of the region's ability to adapt to the effects of climate change To assess socio-economic impacts of climate change on the Litoral-Mesopotamia C. Activities 1. Collect historic records of precipitation on the drainage basins of the rivers Parana', Uruguay, Paraguay, Bermejo, Pilcomayo, and Salado. These records should focus on events of uncharacteristic intensity. Identify changes inrainfall trends 2. Collect historic temperature records inthe region 3. Gather informationconceming historic records of streamflow in these rivers 4. Map historic phreatic surface elevations inthe area 5. Develop database of flooding events in the drainage basins in question. Investigate trends in flooding frequency, as well as possible correlations with streamflows and precipitation events 6. Estimate costs of flooding events 7. Catalog occurrence of ENSO-associated events, and when possible, correlate with instances of flooding 8. Map historic population settlements infloodplains and river banks 9. Evaluate the effect of infrastructure works (i.e. roads, highways, dams) on drainage characteristics inthe area 10. Identify historic changes in land management practices (i.e. changes in crops or cultivation techniques) 11. Mapdeforestation practices inthe basins of the rivers inquestion 12. Map the occurrence of desertification inthe area. Identify areas of higherosion potential 13. Identify existing irrigation networks as well as drainage infrastructure. Determine whether there have been changes in irrigation frequency andor intensity 14. Evaluate vulnerability of the water resources in the Litoral-Mesopotamia by incorporating climate predictions from Global Circulation Models to existing hydrodynamic models of surface runoff and streamflow dynamics 15. Evaluate possible mitigation and adaptation measures that can be taken to reduce the impacts of flooding 16. Assess magnitude of disruption of the area's economic productivity as a result of flooding events D. Expected Outputs 1. Historic perspective on the trends of the changing climate inthe region 2. Evaluationof the relative influence o f global warming, ENSO, and human action on documented flooding events 3. Maps of areas of risk of flooding and desertification (based on empirical data) 4. Assessment of the needfor reforestation in specific areas 5. Assessment of the effectiveness o f irrigation and drainage practices in the region and of the need to regulate these practices (i.e. to reduce soil salinization) 6. Regional vulnerability assessmentsbased on hydrological modelpredictions 7. Evaluation of effectiveness of additional drainage control infrastructure works 8. Evaluation of the need to control population settlements such that they do not take place in areas of highflooding risk 9. Assessment of effectiveness of potential mitigation and adaptation measures - 10. Evaluation of social and economic impacts of climate change on the Litoral-Mesopotamia 78 Annex 12-B-5 VULNERABILITY OF THEPATAGONIA PRELIMINARYTERMS OF REFERENCE A. Background The Patagonia covers an extensive area, approximately equal to one third o f the total area of the country, and encompasses the five southernmost provinces. It i s located inthe aridregion of Argentina, where the combined effects of climate and poor land management practices have caused extensive desertification. The impacts of climate change on the region are likely to be severe and include: a) erosion from increasing rainfall in the lowlands; and b) disruptions to recharge patterns o f regional groundwater aquifers, caused by effect decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature at the areas' glaciers. The Patagonia covers an extensive area (in the order of 750,000 km2),approximately one third of the total area of Argentina, encompassing the provinces o f Nuqukn, Rio Negro, Chubut, Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego. Population density in the region i s low and primarily concentrated in urban developments. The region i s limited on the west by the Andes and on the east by the Atlantic Ocean, and this topographic variability leads to drastic climatic and ecological contrasts. The low areas can be described as and or semi-arid, where annual precipitation values range from 100 to 300 mm. Westerly winds of intensities ranging from moderate to strong are present throughout the year. Soils predominantly consist of loose deposits with scarce vegetation cover. Increasing trends in annual precipitation duringthe past 100 years have been observed in stations at the Rio Colorado,Neuqukn, and Paso de Zos Zndios, all located in northern Patagonia, but stations in southern Patagonia show no obvious change. Large cattle factories began settling inthe regiontowards the end of the XIX century and have maintained extensive raising practices, particularly ovine. This has become the dominant economic activity, practiced intensively to this date, in an unsustainable manner. Sheep have grazed for years on the natural pastures, further reducing surface cover and contributing to more pronounced erosion. The high areas of the Patagonia are located in the Andes, one of the primary locations o f the glaciers of Latin America. It has been predicted that increasing temperatures in high mountain regions could lead to the disappearance of significant snow and ice surfaces. In fact, there i s now scientific evidence that glaciers in Latin America have receded dramatically in the past decades (IPCC, 2001). Although the reasons for the melting of the glaciers i s still debatable, in 18 glaciers o f the Peruvian Andes, mass balances since 1968 and satellite images show a reduction of more than 20% o f the glacial surface. Significant reductions of glaciers have also occurred in southern Chile and Argentina, specifically at the Sarmiento glacier. On a smaller scale, snowfall rates may also be affected by changes in atmospheric circulation resulting from the ENS0 phenomenon, as well as by increasing temperatures. Snow accumulates at high elevations and melts duringthe summer, becoming the main source of surface and underground runoff in the lowlands. B. Objectives 0 To identify and evaluate potential impacts o f climate change on the Patagonia 0 To propose mitigation actions and measures to reduce the vulnerability of the region to the impacts of climate change 0 To estimate the effect of current land and water management practices on the sustainability of the region's resources 0 To evaluate the socio-economic impacts of climate change on the Patagonia its potential for development 79 Annex 12-B-5 C. Activities 1. Evaluate historic temperature records of the Putugoniu and identify warming trends. In particular, document temperature changes at the location of the glaciers 2. Review available historic precipitation data inthe Putugoniu and identify: (a) Variations in frequency and magnitude of rainfall and snowfall (b) Spatial distribution of rainfall and snowfall (c) Impacts to streamflows of rivers in the region (d) Impacts on glaciers (e) Impacts on groundwater recharge (0 Locations of increasingerosion 3. Document occurrences of flooding inthe region 4. Estimate costs of flooding events 5. Evaluate recorded changes in the size of glaciers and observed impact on the streamflow of local rivers 6. Assess the condition of groundwater resources in the Putugoniu, particularly inthe vicinity of urban settings 7. Map historic human settlements on the Patugoniun river valleys 8. Document the extent of irrigation practices in the region 9. Evaluate water requirements of cultivated crops 10. Evaluate the current use of agrochemicals inthe region 11. Study the impacts of increasinglivestock grazing on soil anddrainage characteristics 12. Evaluate variations of the rate of desertification in the past decades and assess current extent of degradation 13. Assess the sediment loadof rivers in the region and its impacts on water supply 14. Evaluate water quality inurban settings 15. Estimate losses in area's economic productivity due to changes in climate and the resulting effects 16. Assess impacts of climate change on tourism. Estimate losses from decreasing number of tourists D. Expected outputs 1. Evaluation of the adequacy of water resources inthe Patagoniaunder current conditions, and under projected scenarios of climate change 2. Specific evaluation on the hydrological impact of glacial meltdown and evaluate adaptation measures 3. Proposal for water resource management procedures in order to diminishthe vulnerability of the region to climate change. 4. Assessment of soil degradation potential of the region and of vulnerability to a likely increase in precipitation 5. Evaluation of sustainability of current landuse and land management practices 6. General assessment of socio-economic development potential of the area 7. Development of regional plan to adapt for changing climate conditions and to mitigate their resulting impacts on the provinces 80 Annex 12-B-6 OVERALL SOCIO-ECONOMICIMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PRELIMINARY TERMS OF REFERENCE A. Objectives To compile results from existing vulnerability studies in order to determine the social and economic impacts of climate change. 0 To determine range of economically feasible options available to adapt to projected climate changes. B. Activities 1. Collect results from vulnerability studies conducted for the First and Second National Communication, including those for the Gran Buenos Aires, Pampa Hu'meda, Litoral- Mesopotamia,Patagonia,coastlines, and the Oasis 2. Establish environmental and emissions baselines 3. Determine key stakeholders and institutional presence inthe different areas considered 4. Assess existing policies for mitigation and/or adaptation 5. Choose critical future emissions scenario and estimate the extent of regional impacts to projected climatic conditions 6. Estimate the costs of projected damages on the different regions andat the national level 7. Assess the costs of regional losses of economic productivity as a result of resource degradation 8. Estimate potential costs o f various alternativesthat can be implemented to mitigate damages 9. Assess the social impact of projected measures, inthe region and on the country 10. Compile all costs expressed in terms of GDP and prioritize regions as function of total economic impact on the country 11. Determine opportunity costs from not adapting to climate change 12. Compare adaptation costs to mitigation costs C. Expectedoutputs 1. Assessment of regional and national social vulnerability to climate changes 2. Evaluation of costs of damages that could be caused by climate change 3. Assessment of projected costs of mitigation and adaptation policies 4. Evaluation of adaptive capacity inArgentina to the various impacts of climate change 5. Identification of areas where adaptation and mitigation initiatives are lacking 6. Comparative analysis of mitigation andadaptation costs, and analysis of implications for the Argentine economy 81 Annex 12-B-8 VULNERABILITY OF THE ENERGY SYSTEM AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE PRELIMINARY TERMS OF REFERENCE A. BACKGROUND The supply and the demand of energy in Argentina primarily revolve around natural gas and derivates from petroleum. Climate change i s not likely to significantly affect the exploitation of these natural resources, but could have a major impact on the hydroelectric generating capacity, the largest contributor to electricity generation in the country. Impacts to the hydroelectric capacity are likely to affect the entire energy sector since other resources will need to be used to compensate for changes inelectricity supply. B. Objectives 0 To asses the impacts of climate change on supply and demand of energy inArgentina 0 To determine the need for increasingthe country's energy infrastructure 0 To evaluate possible market for o f alternate sources o f energy and energy efficiency programs C. Activities 1. Review inventory of hydroelectric facilities in operation around the country and determine current capacities 2. Make projections of energy demand, by province, under varying climate scenarios. Use historic trends of demand to predict customer response to increase/decrease in temperatures. Separate consumption projections of residential andindustrialsectors 3. Evaluate potential impacts of climate change on electric generating capacity. Use different climate change scenarios to determine the effect of precipitation patterns on electric generating capacity 4. Determine the need to increase electric distribution and transmission lines to meet electricity demand in areas of shortage. Evaluate costs of providing additional infrastructure 5. Evaluate the adequacy of the energy generation capacity of the country to meet demand, given the affected electric generation capacity and the increase in consumption 6. Determine the costs of altering current schemes of energy distribution 7. Map zones where energy supply may be insufficient 8. Evaluate the increase in GHGemissions from use of alternate sources o f energy 9. Determine the need to increase the coverage of gas pipelines. Estimate related costs 10. Determine the stress imposed on oil and naturalgas reserves from additional consumption 11. Assess the needto import oil and natural gas. Estimate costs 12. Evaluate the possibility of increasingenergy supply from underutilizedsources 13. Evaluate the safety of existing dams under new climatic conditions (ie. higher precipitation) 14. Determine the need to buildadditional hydroelectric plants and the associated costs 15. Propose regional adaptation measures to reduce the stress on the energy system. Consider regional acceptance to energy conservation initiatives, renewable energy sources, etc. D. Expectedoutputs 1. Evaluation of energy consumption trends around the country under varying climate scenarios 2. Determination of regional andnational vulnerability of energy systemto climate change 3. Assessment of the environmental impacts of the increase in GHGemissions as hydro power i s substituted 4. Determination of national energy infrastructure needs and costs 5. Identificationof regions where mitigation strategies would most effective and estimation of expected costs of those measures 82 Annex 12-B-8 NATIONAL ADAPTATION PROGRAMS AND REGIONAL ADAPTATION PLANS PRELIMINARY TERMSOR REFERENCE A. Objectives 0 To develop an Adaptation Policy Framework for the preparation of adaptation strategies and policies against climate change 0 To identify adaptation strategies inline with planned policy interventions B. Activities 1. Compile all of the proposed mitigation and adaptation strategies that were developed as a result of vulnerability studies 2. Determine if magnitude of impacts should be addressed from a regional or from a national perspective 3. Determine range of possible actions that can be taken to address each adaptation initiative 4. Assess financial and social costs of various alternatives 5. Review objectives of regional and national development plans and identify compatibilities with adaptation strategies 6. Define policies that integrate adaptation initiativesinto development plans 7. Identify institutional framework to implement adaptation policies at the regional and national levels 8. Evaluate regulatory framework for the implementation of regional and national adaptation policies 9. Assess resource allocation mechanisms to finance adaptation measures C. Expectedoutputs 1. Portfolio of adaptation strategies to the impacts o f climate change that can be incorporated in national andregional development plan 2. Adaptation strategies to climate change impacts that are compatible with Argentine sustainable development goals 83 Annex 12-B-9 ESTIMATESOF REGIONALCLIMATE CHANGESCENARIOS THROUGHREGIONALCLIMATE MODELS PRELIMINARY TERMSOR REFERENCE A. Background In 2001, the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) published a report in which the sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of environmental and human systems to climate change, as well as the potential consequences of climate change were evaluated. Predictions presented in the report are primarily based on results from General Circulation Models (GCM). GCM have been widely usedto predict the effect that varying concentrationsof GHG inthe atmosphere would have on the global climate. Several of these models currently exist, based on different assumptions and representations of climate systems. Since GCM simulate large-scale climatic features, all these models yield comparable results, on a global basis (IPCC, 2001). However, results from separate GCM models are considerably different when they are usedfor predictions of regional climatic patterns. Since 1987, the Centro del Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmdsfera (CIMA) has been using regional models to study the response of meteorological systems in South America and in the Antarctic Peninsula to global climate change. Recentpilot studies have beenconducted to modelthe South American climate, using a technique developed at CIMA, based on the simultaneous use of a regional model and a global model of variable resolution. These studies were based on a regional model developedby LAHMKIMA nested in a global model by LMDZand leadto satisfactory results. Inorder to improve the quality of the results obtained, a new systemhas been developed, which consists of the nesting of a new regional model (the most recent version of the Fifth-Generation PennStateNCAR MesoscaleModel, MM5 version 3.4) in a more recent general circulation model (LMDZversion 3.2). A zooming feature was applied to the latter model, centred on 30"s-latitude and 6O0W-longitude, which makes it possible to incorporate greater details over the region. Both models are equipped with greater horizontal and vertical resolution. The models that will be used to for the simulations were developed at the Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmdsfera (CIMA / CONICET / UBA) and the Centro Nacional Patagdnico (CENPAT / CONICET). CIMA i s currently running an Atmosphere General Circulation Model (AGCM) coupled to an ocean model developed at IPSL, France, as well as a regional high-resolution model MM5 developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), USA. CENPAT is running the coupled AGCM MARK 4 developed at CSIRO, Australia, and the regional high-resolution ETA model from NCEP, USA. Additionally, CIMA also has results from simulations from 1860-2000, which were performed using a coupled ocean-atmospheremodelfrom the IPSL that also incorporates a carbon-model. Simulations were forced with historic C02concentrationsup to 1995 and a SRES A2 IPCC-scenario from 1996. Two time periods will be specifically targeted, namely that representative of the actual climate (+/- 10 years around 1990) and that of a future climate (+/- 10years around 2090). Results from climate simulations usingthe IPSL model are currently being analysed with positive preliminary results. The model captures, for example, regional details such as the warming at the western Arctic Peninsula, which other models are typically not able to capture. The next stage of research involves the use of a downscaling technique in order to obtain regional results. This technique implies the preparation of initial forcing conditions for the LMDZand MM5 model based on information already obtained from long-term simulations using the global IPSL model. It is expected that results of simulations of regional climate change will be available within the next 10-14 months. B. Objectives 0 To contribute to the climate modelingefforts beingcarried out inArgentina 0 To obtain future, regional predictions of climate that can be used as reference for the development of regional andnational climate change mitigation strategies 84 Annex 12-B-9 C. Activities 1. Establish, with the participation of relevant members of the Steering Committee, the most adequate set of emission scenarios to be used in the simulations that will be carried out as part of this project. The goal will be to establish those scenarios that lead to the most useful and critical conditions for the development of mitigation and adaptationstrategies 2. Establish, with the participation of relevant members of the Steering Committee, the most adequate time frames for runningsimulations 3. Target simulations to regions found to be the most vulnerable to climate change by the vulnerability studies conducted 4. Conduct simulations to assess likely temperature and precipitation changes in the region 5. Conduct simulations to evaluate the importance of changes in ocean level around regional coastlines 6. Compile results in a manner that they can be usedinthe development of mitigation or adaptationplans, namely through maps of risk and probability grids 7. Provide indications regardinguncertainty of predictions 8. Final report must contain an expert analysis and a discussion of the results obtained, which outlines the most critical findings 9. Make results of climate simulations available for input of regional hydrological models D. Expected outputs 1. Increasednationalknowledge andexpertiseinthe generationanduse of climate simulations 2. Updatedknowledge on probably of climate change impacts in Argentina 3. Results from regional climate simulations that can be used in the development of climate- change related mitigation strategies 4. Climatic input parameters for hydraulic models 85 Annex 12-C-1 NATIONALMITIGATIONPROGRAM EMISSIONMITIGATION THROUGHENERGYEFFICIENCYMEASURESPROGRAMS PRELIMINARYTERMS OF REFERENCE A. Background The energy sector i s the largest emitter of GHG in Argentina, in spite o f the country's long trajectory usingclean energy sources. Significant reductions to the amount of GHG emissions can be achieved by increasing the efficiency of energy consumption. To that effect, govemment measures to promote the Rational Use of Energy (URE) were first introduced, by law, during the 1985-89 period. The program included four objectives, namely: 1) energy conservation; 2) use o f alternative fuels; 3) assessment, development and use of new energy sources; and 4) development of financial options that would encourage efficiency. However, the impact of the initial phase of URE was limited, largely due to economic turmoil in the Region at the end of the 1980s, and to the short duration of the programs, which were not sufficiently long to accomplish significant changes in the patterns of energy use. In 1992, drastic reforms of the energy sector were implemented, primarily focused towards privatization and the deregulation of energy markets. Energy efficiency measures were not amongst the priorities of the reforms. A National Office for the Rational Use of Energy was nonetheless part of the organizational structure of the Secretary of Energy, with functions essentially limited to demonstration projects. Some of the measures promoted by the URE included: 1) for the industrial sector, significant energy savings were estimated from: (a) initiatives of co-generation of electricity and heat; and (b) programs for energy- efficient drying of seeds and crops; 2) for the public and commercial sector, major savings were estimated from: (a) programs of efficient street lighting; (b) energy saving initiatives in public and commercial buildings; (c) energy efficient heating systems in public buildings; and (d) co-generation in hospitals, public buildings, schools, etc; 3) for the residential sector, savings from programs related to: (a) efficient lighting; (b) efficient appliances (Le. refrigerators); (c) energy-saving heating systems. Inspite of the fact that these measures presented tremendous saving potentials, they were not supported by policy measures andconsequently were not effective at promotingenergy savings by either the supply or the demand side. It is therefore not surprisingthat despite its long history, the impact of UREin terms of energy efficiency and energy conservation has not been significant. Estimates of potential energy savings for Argentina reach values greater than 25% of the total national energy consumption. It is therefore clear that a NMP for GHG emissions must include mitigation measures for the energy sector. However, several obstacles are currently in place that difficult the effectiveness of these measures. Significant barriers to energy efficiency, for instance, are imposed by the structure of the energy sector itself, and due to: (a) the price of energy - low efficiencies in the consumption of energy are partly a reaction to its low price. Since the establishment of the reforms tariffs for residential users are low, a factor that does little to deter energy waste. On the other hand, large energy users (Le. consumption greater than 2 MW) benefit from low prices by directly obtaining energy from generators at the MEM; (b) excess generating capacity - generators have been encouraged to develop thermal facilities in an effort to use more efficient equipment. Given the low price of natural gas, there i s currently an excess o f generating capacity, which discourages energy savings and further contributes to the drop in prices; and (c) no incentives to distributors to promote energy conservation given that they are independent from the generation and the transmission segments and that larger users deal directly with generators; (d) shared economic responsibilities - in many cases, decisions regarding the purchase or the installation o f energy efficient systems are not those who benefit from energy savings. Builders for example, will not pay operating costs from less efficient systems; (e) difficulties inprocuring low rates of financing are one of the major difficulties of energy efficient systems; and (f) limited supply of energy efficient services - given all of the barriers mentioned, the number of services offered i s very limited, reinforcing the difficulties. Additional obstacles to the development of energy efficient systems in Argentina include: 1) institutional barriers, which are related to the absence of regulatory and financial frameworks where energy conservation can be promoted; 2) economic barriers, related to the difficulties associated with making 86 Annex 12-C-1 uncertain investments in a volatile economic climate; 3) technological barriers, due to limited access to modem technologies that allow energy savings; and 4) educational barriers, caused by the lack o f public awareness concerningthe costs and the benefits of energy efficient systems. Having reviewed the difficulties that exist to the development o f energy efficient systems and to the promotion of energy saving programs, the NMP must introduce initiatives that specifically address some of these barriers. Several of the initiatives that have been used around the world in similar situations consist o f a) encouraging energy savings by adopting pricing schemes that reward efficiency and by imposing taxes on energy consumption; b) introducing Energy Services Companies (ESCOs), firms whose services consist of developing energy efficiency programs for their clients and get compensated as a function of the actual savings they help achieve; c) raising awareness amongst consumers about the costs and benefits of saving energy by providing, for instance, labels on appliances that provide information about energy efficiency; d) establishing minimum standards for efficiency of appliances, construction codes and materials, buildings, etc; e) encouraging the creation o f agencies, public and private, that promote the efficient use of energy; f) promoting voluntary participation of the various sectors inprograms of energy efficiency The NMP must therefore aim at reducing emissions from the energy system by promoting energy conservation through programs that promote efficiency andregulation to support those programs. B. Objectives 0 To contribute to the development of portfolio o f energy efficiency measures that can be implemented as part of emission mitigation strategies 0 To evaluate the applicability of EEMmeasures to the Argentine energy system 0 To assess the needfor government support of EEMinitiatives 0 To identify programs that can be implemented through the C D M C. Activities 1. Review results and recommendations of studies aimed at promoting energy efficiency in Argentina. Include, among others, analysis of results o f NSS, IADB, GT, and EU-funded initiatives 2. Review of current energy pricing schemes at the national level 3. Identification of energy-saving measures at the demand side. These will include, among others: (i) theresidentialsector,efficientlightingandappliances;(ii) thepublicandcommercial for for sectors, efficient public lighting, efficient heating and lighting in public buildings, and energy consumption programs; and (iii)for the industrial sector, co-generation and self-generation programs. Perform cost-benefit analysis of alternatives 4. Gather information on the performance of former and of on-going energy efficiency measures. Evaluate the performance andthe difficulties o f programs implemented in other countries 5. Estimate number of users of energy-saving measures and awareness of consumers nationwide to the existence of these measures 6. Review of current level of government intervention on energy efficiency programs. Review must consider aspects such as: (i) existing laws and regulations that promote the role of energy efficiency inthe economic structure; and (ii) policies to promoteenergy conservation 7. Design the implementation of supporting measures for ESCO development including: i) commercial tools (i.e. performance contracts, verification protocols, and dissemination of best practices, case studies and technical guidelines); and ii)project financing mechanism 8. Design aggressive information campaign, to be endorsed by the government, which will convey the importance of energy conservation and will promote energy efficiency programs 9. Design programfor standards and labeling of appliances, equipment, and buildingenvelopes that clearly identify energy-efficient products 10 Design nationwide government policy that requires mandatory reductions of energy consumption in all public facilities. Policy could include, for instance, requirements for: (i)use of energy efficient materials for all new construction; (ii)design of co-generatiodself-generation 87 Annex 12-C-1 installations for all new, large public buildings; and (iii) exclusive use o f energy efficient lighting, appliances, N C , heating systems, etc. 11. Identify environmentally conscious cities or communities where pilot programs can be implemented. Focus on evaluating the effectiveness of government action (i.e. regulatory intervention) on the success of energy efficiencykonservation initiatives 12. Evaluate the possibility of institutinga system of government-sponsored incentives to persuade consumers to use energy efficiencykonservation initiatives 13. Provide government incentives to self-generation and co-generation initiatives 14. Provide cost effectiveness analysis of consumer-targeted campaigns and government-targeted campaigns that promote energy conservation 15. Evaluate the potential implementation of the programs considered by the CDM D. Expectedoutputs 1. Evaluation of the efficiency of current energy conservationinitiatives 2. Alternatives for projectsthat stimulate energy conservation 3. Strategies for government intervention in order to promote energy efficiency and conservation 4. Identification of energy efficient initiatives that may be implemented through the CDM 88 Annex 12-C-2 NATIONALMITIGATIONPLAN EMISSIONMITIGATIONINTHE TRANSPORTATIONSECTOR PRELIMINARYTERMS OF REFERENCE A. Background The contribution of the transportation sector to the GHG emission balance in Argentina i s considerable, making it an important factor in any emission reduction strategy or climate change mitigation plan. Well- known measures to reduce transportation emissions essentially address two issues, namely a reduction of travel demand or an increase in travel efficiency. The latter consists of a variety of measures including improving infrastructure, introducing more efficient technologies or implementing government regulations. The optimal strategy for emissions reduction in a given city will likely encompass a combination of measures that need to be adapted to the characteristics of the city andits demographics. Current emission mitigation scenarios for Argentina include proposals for improving or increasing the transportation infrastructure. It i s typically assumed that by increasing road capacity there i s a relief in congestion and thus in the level of emissions, given that vehicles that were previously confined to inefficient stop-an-go patterns can travel at higher, more efficient speeds. Mitigation scenarios for Argentina include, among others, the following measures: 1) construction of highways and beltways in larger cities; and 2) construction of suburban highways in Greater Mendoza, Greater Tucumdn, Greater Bahia Blanca, and Greater Mar del Plata between the years 2010 and 2020. However, traffic studies in large urban developments have repeatedly shown that independently of the levels of initial road congestion and those of final road capacity, both emissions and congestion ultimately rise and become higher than those that existed initially. Travelers will, for example, be willing to travel greater distances since time of travel remains the same, until congestion levels rise again. Greater capacity generates greater levels of traffic, which eventually leads to higher levels o f emissions. It i s therefore important that mitigation scenarios address complimentary alternatives to infrastructure development, which address changes in mobility patterns of the population. Mitigation scenarios for Argentina, for instance, may include other types of measures aimed at changing transportation patterns at reducing the demand for traveling and at increasing travel efficiency, such as the introduction of zoning regulations. These new zoning laws establish administrative activities inside the cities while industrialactivities are confined to the periphery, thus reducing traffic flow towards the most densely populated areas. Other measures that reduce travel demand and increase travel efficiency that could be implemented are, for instance: (i) promoting shifts in modes of travel from automobiles to public transportation; (ii) promoting emission-free modes o f transportation (i.e. bicycles); (iii) institutingroad pricing programs, which charge drivers for the use of particularly congested roads duringpeak hours; (iv) promoting travel blending initiatives, which consist of programs aimed at reducing private car use by modifying travel behavior; (v) establishing location-efficient mortgages, which present adaptable interest rates that account for lower transportation costs; (vi) implementing location-dependent development costs, which are charges imposed on developers to cover municipal costs of water and sewer lines, for instance; (vii) encouraging substitutions of communications for traveling, by investing in communication infrastructure or providing incentives to corporations; and (viii) adjusting automobile insurance policies according to average distances traveled. A reduction of emissions can also be achieved by improving vehicle efficiency. Technological advances over the last three decades, for instance, have considerably increased the efficiency of automobiles. However, consumer preferences are not always in line with environmental concerns, and more institutionalized measures need to be implemented. In such cases, vehicle efficiency can be either regulated through government standards, or through incentives related to the vehicle or the fuel. Examples of measures that can be implemented to increase vehicular efficiency are: (i) programs that eliminate old, inefficient and polluting cars; (ii) system of taxes on the sale o f inefficient vehicles; (iii) programs that charge taxes on vehicle fuels; (iv) fuel conversion programs, a measure that has already 89 Annex 12-C-2 been implemented in Argentina, where approximately 12% of private automobiles and 47% o f the taxis have converted from gas to compressed natural gas (CNG). B. Objectives 0 To update GHGemission figures from the transportation sector 0 To analyze the impact of the current economic crisis on emissions from the transportation sector 0 To assess the extent of emission mitigationpractices around the country 0 To identify locations for potential implementation of emission mitigation programs C. Activities 1. Review results of two NSS and other relevant studies on emission reductions from the transportation sector 2. Update emission figures from the transportation sector andanalyze recent trends 3. Calculate emissions per passenger-km for private and public passenger transportation systems and emissions per ton-km for all modes of freight transport systems, in urban areas and on interurban links in Argentina 4. Evaluate impacts of the current economic crisis on emissions from the transportation sector. Include, among others, an analysis o f the following: (i) shifts in transportation patterns from private to public or to non-motorized transportation means and the resulting potential decrease in emissions; (ii)increase in the use of old, polluting vehicles for public transportation as sources of income for unemployed sector and the resulting increase in emissions; and (iii) decrease in emissions in inter-city and urban travel, as travel demand dropped 5. Evaluation of transportation trends inthe largest cities o f Argentina andanalysis o f mitigation potential from vehicular transportation. Identify: a. Relative use of public and private transportation systems in the biggest cities and on major interurban links b. Existing programs to improve fuel efficiency, including among others: (i) elimination of old, inefficient, andpolluting vehicles; (ii) taxation of inefficient vehicles; (iii) of taxation fuel; and (iv) fuel conversion. Perform cost-benefit analysis of existing programs and their success in achieving reductions of fuel consumption c. Existing programs that promote the use of cleaner technologies, such as: (i) cleaner fuels and fuel mixes; (ii) more efficient vehicles, through improvements in engines and propulsion devices; (iii) electric vehicles; and (iv) inspection and maintenance programs with specific emphasis on fuel efficiency. Analyze cost-benefits results of existing initiatives d. Evaluation of measuresto reduce GHGemissions, including among others: (i) promoting shifts from private to public transportation; (ii)promoting the use of low-emission vehicles; (iii) instituting road pricing initiatives; (iv) establishment of zoning laws; (v) location-depending development costs; and (vi) location-efficient mortgages. Perform cost-benefit analysis of impacts on GHGemissions o f various altematives e. Identify cities where emission reduction programs may be instituted. Use as example initiatives put in place in other cities of Latin America such as Santiago de Chile, Quito, Curitiba, and Bogota 6. Compare impact of current emission mitigation programs with existing model predictions of impacts from these programs 7. Quantification of the impact of last decade's infrastructure improvements, especially on roads, on: (i) travel demand; and (ii) emissions GHG 8. Perform cost benefit analysis of impacts on emissions from infrastructure investments (Le. highways such as Acceso-Norte in Buenos Aires) and from investments on trains, subway lines and buses 9. Perform cost-benefit analysis of a higher public transportation use versus an increase in the use of cleaner technologies in the largest cities o f Argentina. Compare, for example, the 90 Annex 12-C-2 costs, the impacts on GHG emissions, andthe feasibility o f (i) modal shift from private small vehicles to public transport; (ii)moderate increase in the average capacity of public transportation vehicles, assuming an unchangedtotal capacity of the system; and (iii) a shift to cleaner technologies 10. Assess the emission mitigation potential from inter-city passenger transportation. Evaluate factors such as: (i) existence of fuel-efficiency initiatives; (ii) programs to maintain vehicles and eliminate polluting vehicles; and (iii) existence of clean-technology programs 11. Evaluation of GHG emission mitigation potential from freight transportation around the country. Analyze, among others, the following: a. Existing measures to increase fuel efficiency of truck transportation, including for example: (i) maximum weight requirements; and (ii) technical specifications on trucks. b. Perform cost-benefit analysis and evaluate the impact on GHG emissions from modal shifts from trucks to navigation and railroad. Assess the feasibility of such changes c. Investigate the impact and the feasibility of policies aimed at promoting efficiency in freight transport betweenmember countries of MERCOSUR 12. Evaluation of GHG emission mitigation potential in air transport by introducing measures such as tradableemissions credits D. Expected outcomes 1. Update of GHGemissionsfigures from all segments of the transportation sector 2. Evaluation of the impact of the economic crisis on emissionsfrom the transportation sector 3. Assessment of extent of regional and national emission mitigation strategies in the transportation sector 4. Evaluation of the impact of recentinfrastructure developmentson GHGemissions 5. Cost-benefit analysis and feasibility studies of various types of emission reduction initiatives (Le. modal shifts versus technological improvements) in all segments of the transportation sector 6. Proposal of candidate cities where emission mitigation strategies may be implemented and outlines of mitigation strategies E. Suggested references 1. Saving; Oil and Reducing C07 emissions in Transport - Options & Strategies (2001), International Energy Agency (CA) 2. Policy Improvements for Achieving; Environmental Sustainabilitv in Transport (2002), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 91 Annex 12-C-3 NATIONALMITIGATIONPROGRAM EMISSIONMITIGATIONTHROUGHRENEWABLEENERGY DEVELOPMENT PRELIMINARYTERMS OF REFERENCE A. Background The generation of renewable energy has a large potential in Argentina. Several commercially proven technologies are available to makeuse of existing resources. The following technologies are particularly promising: a) Small scale hydropower - following the same principles as traditional hydro electric facilities, small- scale hydro is a cost-effective and reliable alternative for electricity supply to local and regional grids. The environmental and social impacts of a small-scale facility are significantly smaller than those of a large-scaleproject. Argentina's hydropower resources are extensive, with estimates of installedcapacity reaching 44,500 MW. However, the vast majority of water-related power projects involve large-scale hydro power facilities. In 1995, a total capacity of 9,800 MW was installed in large-scalesystems, while only 40 M W of small-scalecapacity existed. b) Solar energy -photovoltaic (PV) cells havebeen usedfor years to collect solar energy and convert it to electricity. Uses for this technology are considerable, ranging form residential kilowatt systems to megawatt plants. Although the costs of PV technologies have limited the competitiveness of solar power generation, prices have been steadily decreasing. PV can currently be usedto strengthen local electricity gnds as part of distributed generation programs. Solar power resources are substantial in Argentina, particularly north of the Limay-Rio Negro rivers. Large sections of the north west part of the country receive solar inputs comparableto those in the southwesternU.S., where solar power generatingfacilities have been developed. Total installed capacity in Argentina 1999 was estimated around 1 MW, where maximumestimateswere in the order of 190MW. c) Solar thermal power - this technology i s an alternative to the use of PV, in which instead of directly converting sunlight into electricity, solar heat is collected and supplied to a thermal engine that produces electricity. d) Wind power - wind can be used to generate electricity on an intermittent basis. Wind turbines are designed to provide energy across variable ranges of wind speeds and to withstand storm conditions. Typical turbines have outputs of 600 kW. The technology i s mature, widely used, and when situated at optimal locations, competitive with new coal-fired power stations. Argentina has tremendous wind energy potential, concentrated primarily south of the Limuy-Rio Negro rivers. Given the high wind speeds registeredin most of the southernpart of the country, and particularly in the Patagonia,the potential power generatingcapacity in Argentina is one of the largest in the world. It has beenestimatedthat the province of Santa Cruz alone could support an installed capacity equivalent to that of the E.U. and the U.S. combined. In 1999, installed capacity was in the order of 3 MW, with plannedinvestmentsof 6 MW. e) Biomass power - agricultural and forest product wastes, as well as dedicated crops and fast growing trees represent potential sources of renewable energy. Commonly used sources of biomass include, among others, bagasse and alcohol from sugarcane, poultry litter, straw, and waste wood. Several technologiesare currently available, includingwood fueled boilers for heat or electricity production, dual- fuel plants, where biomass is used as a complement to fossil fuels in boilers, gasification processes, which convert biomass to a fuel gas that can be used as a substitute for fossil fuels, and more complex liquefaction processes to produce methanol andother liquidfuels. Argentina already partially exploits its large biomass potential. Approximately 57% of the energy used by the pulp and paper industry, for example, is derived from biomass. Notwithstanding, enormous quantities of forestry, wood-working and other agro-industrial residues, which could be used as substitutes for fossil fuels, are instead burned in the open air or left to decompose without any energetic use. 92 Annex 1242-3 f) Biogas power - decomposing waste (ie. organic matter) generates methane as one of the by-products. This biogas can be collected, purified, and used as fuel input for power generation in all applications designed for natural gas. The technology i s proven, readily available, and competitive when located in adequate sites. Engineered landfills are particularly attractive sites for biogas capture, although alternate sources are manure and sewage and industrial sludge ponds. Biogas power generation i s an attractive alternative in Argentina, particularly in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area, which concentrates the majority of the population and where the largest number of engineered municipal landfills i s located. g) Geothermal power - geothermal energy uses heat obtained below the earth's surface to generate electricity or thermal power through steam turbines. Normally geothermal power i s associated with the exploitation of hot water and steam reservoirs. The costs of this technology are linked to the accuracy and effectiveness of resource exploration, and research i s being conducted towards the improvement of these characteristics. The exploration of geothermal resources has recently begun in Argentina. One project exists in the Neuqukn province, generating approximately 760 KW out of a total estimated installed capacity of 50 MW. h) Wood energy - wood energy is a potential, although possibly not major source of renewable energy. Wood harvesting has not typically been an economically feasible alternative. With the present economic problems, however, it may have become a more affordable source of energy. In spite of the considerable potential for RE generation in Argentina, most of the existingresources, with the exception of large-scale hydro-power, are under developed. Several obstacles contribute to their limited use, including: (i)mismatch between demand and supply locations - renewable resources are often located in distant locations, away from the centers of demand and not connectedto transmission lines (Le. Patagonia wind power); (ii) difficulties related to financing - large-scale investment in renewable energies require significant initial capital investments and due to the relative inexperience of the sector are considered investment risks. A traditional lack of availability of development capital in this sector has limited the number of investors. Small-scale renewable energy systems have been successful at providing services to localized users, as demonstrated by PAEPRA and PERMERprojects; (iii) constrained demand -unlessconsumersusemorethan2MwWyearorinstallrenewableenergy systemsfor on-sitegeneration they do not have the choice of power suppliers andare therefore not able to opt for renewable sources. However, the most significant obstacle to the development o f the renewable energy sector and in the future role it may achieve in Argentina involves its relative position with respect to the electricity market. Indeed, renewable energy sources are currently at a competitive disadvantage in the liberalized electricity market, and incentives must be put in place in order to favor their development. The first major disadvantage of the renewable energy market exists at the transmission level. Power generators are, by law, restricted on the share of transmission facilities they may own. Transmission lines in Argentina are controlled by one national and six regional high-voltage companies. Generators have guaranteed access to the transmission grid, but the electricity i s dispatched by CAMMESA to the grid, and ultimately delivered to distribution companies. The limited access to transmission lines in remote areas of the country with high renewable energy potential hinders the development o f these alternative sources of energy. A second disadvantage concerns the pricing of electricity. Prices are determined by the interaction of supply and demand, and therefore strong incentives exist to become a low-cost producer. The large capital investments required by renewable energy projects increase production costs, therefore reducing their competitiveness. A third, and perhaps the largest disadvantage of renewable power systems involves the financing of power projects in a liberalized electricity market. In such a market, financing for projects becomes based on anticipated electricity sales, given that long-term power contracts become rare and therefore that customers become uncertain. As a result, financing i s tied to more equity, less debt, and shorter repayment periods. These conditions favor large, traditional companies and leave renewable energy companies at a considerable disadvantage. 93 Annex 124-3 This component of the project will be used to evaluate the existing market for renewable energy and the feasibility o f mechanisms that promote its use in Argentina. Examples o f these mechanisms include: (a) grant-based, consisting in temporary subsidies to targeted, new technologies at the research, development, demonstration, or commercialization stage; (b) kilowatt-hour-based, which are also a subsidy that covers the cost difference between renewable and less costly options; (c) tax-based, which involve tax deductions and are also beneficial to companies near or at the commercial stage of development; (d) regulation-based, which include, among others: (i) requirement of utilities to purchase renewable energy generation at a fixed price over a long-term period; (ii) requirement that a certain percentage of annual electric use in a given jurisdiction comes from renewable energy; and (iii) regulations that electricity providers disclose fuel sources. Results from this study will serve as an initial diagnostic of the RE situation inthe country, which can later be incorporated to the various components of the PERMER. B. Objectives 0 To evaluate market for REinArgentina 0 To identify potential emission mitigations through the development of renewable energy projects that can be implemented through the CDM C. Activities 1. Review results and recommendations of studies aimed at promoting renewable energy in Argentina. Include, among others, analysis of results o f NSS, PERMER, and EU-funded initiatives 2. Evaluation of coverage of energy supply around the country and identification of areas of inadequate coverage 3. Identification of renewable energy technologies applicable to those areas. Possible options include: (i) small hydro; (ii) (iii) (iv) biomass; and (v) geothermal solar; wind; 4. Assessment of suitability of technologies in terms o f (i) potential location of generating facility; (ii)capacity of generation; (iii) reliability o f supply of energy source; and (iv) access to transmission and distribution grids 5. Identification o f cost effectiveness of technologies as a function o f (i)initial capital investment; (ii) sale price of generated power; (iii)operating costs and maintenance; and (iv) cost of alternative sources of energy available in the market 6. Identificationof potential sources of financing for technologies 7. Assessment of potential client base (i.e. local awareness to the benefits of the renewable energy source) 8. Assessment of existing local govemment support for the development of energy source (i.e. regulatory, fiscal) 9. Identification of parties around the country, interested in energy self-generation (Le. pro- environmental communities, industry, etc.) 10. Identification of locations for pilot programs that could be used as demonstrations to raise awareness on the advantages of the use of renewable energy sources 11. Design a commercial demonstration program, supported by the appropriate incentives and regulations (e.g. PERMER), which would provide a central focus to the activities considered D. Expected outputs 1. Preliminary analysis of market for renewable energy inArgentina 2. Identificationof potential renewableenergy projects that can be implemented by the CDM 3. Assessment of the level of awareness of existing alternatives to traditional energy sources 94 Annex 12-C-4 NATIONALMITIGATIONPROGRAM EMISSIONMITIGATIONTHROUGHCARBONSEQUESTRATIONOPTIONS PRELIMINARY TERMSOFREFERENCE A. Background Mitigation measures to reduce atmospheric concentrations of GHG consist of measures that reduce future emissions, as those describedinthe previous initiatives of the NMP, andthose that increasethe capture of already existing GHG. Some land-use, land-usechange and forestry activities (LULUCFs) reduce GHG emissions and qualify for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) activities under the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol. The forestry sectorcan contribute to the reduction of atmospheric COz inthree major ways: (a) Maintaining existing sinks of GHG, which can be accomplished by: i)conservation measures that protect both young and mature forests (i.e. biomass stocks); and ii)programs geared at expanding plantations of fuel-wood , which protect native forests as they provide sources of energy; (b) Expanding sinks of GHG, done by: i)increasing the productivity of forests through technological improvements and forest management programs; ii)promoting afforestation programs that establish forest plantations in unutilized or abandoned lands for example; iii) restoring degraded forest ecosystems through programs of natural regeneration or reforestation; and iv) increasing the carbon storage capacity of soils by increasing agro- forestry activities and leaving organic waste behind after harvesting (increases in organic matter of forested soils are added to total forest biomass); (c) Reducing sources of GHG emissions related to forestry, which involves the promotion of programs geared at reducing production of disposable forestry products. These initiatives may include,for instance,recyclingprograms for wood products. Trees sequester carbon as they grow, such that the rate of growth of a tree is a function of the total amount of carbon absorbed. Therefore, for forests to be effective sinks of carbon, the growth of their trees must be continuous. Conversely, when forests are cleared, carbon i s releasedby: i)trees that are cut or burned; andii)forest soils that stored certain amounts of carbon during the lifetime of the trees. There are two types of forests in Argentina, namely native forests and plantations. Two recent inventories of forests, commissioned by the Secretaria de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sustentable (SAyDS) and the Secretaria de Agricultura, Ganaderia, Pesca, y Alimentos (SAGPyA) concluded that the area of native forests was 40 millionhectares. Approximately 70% of the native forests of the country are located in the Parque Chaquefio. On the other hand, the area of plantation forest was estimatedas approximately 780,000 hectares, of which 75% are located inthe provinces of Misiones, Corrientes, and Entre Rios, 13% are found in the province of Buenos Aires, and the remaining 12% are distributedamong 10 other provinces. A highproportion of Argentine forests is privately owned, and no regular monitoring of their managementis conducted. Most of the forests under private ownership are utilized for logging and livestock grazing, with areas gradually being converted from forests to pastures. For the most part, logging in these forests takes place unmonitored. Natural forest managementpractices, which are based on selective logging and the sustainablemaintenance of the forests, are not common inArgentina. Projects involving LULUCF afforestation,and reforestation activities qualify for CDM activities and are therefore an attractive option to consider as part of the NMPfor Argentina. The CDM establishes that the generationof emission reductions suitable for trade requires the following steps: 95 Annex 12-C-4 a) Assessment of a baseline - emission reductions are tradable provided they are in excess of those that would take place in the absence of the project. A baseline i s thus defined as those emissions that would be generated without the project. b) Choice of a model - the potential of a carbon sequestration project must initially be evaluated by usinga model that tracks the carbon stored by the forest. Models are used to forecast emission reductions and to identify the resulting carbon pools. They must, however, be supplemented by actual monitoringsince they are not accepted as a verification of emission reductions. c) Monitoring and verification - emission reductions can only be traded after they have been accumulated, reviewed by an overseeing panel, and verified by an independent audit. Monitoring o f all the pools generated by a project can be extremely costly, and therefore procedures have been developed to estimate the total reductions o f a project based on a limited number of key carbon pools. d) Choice of accounting practice -different methods to account for emission reductions from forestry projects exist. When designing a LULUCF project care must be taken in establishing, from the start, the method of emission accounting. e) Estimates of leakage - emission leakage occurs when the emission reductions obtained by a project are later lost due to emissions generated directly or indirectly by the project, for example, by promoting the clearance of other forested areas. Leakage i s of particular concern in countries where regulations on land use do not exist. The potential for development of carbon sequestration projects in Argentina i s high. Benefits from such projects are further increased by the possibility o f entering emission credit markets. The NMP should therefore promote the implementation of these types of projects and provide guidelines and methodology for identifying potential sites and formulating the projects. The Native Forest and Protected Areas (LN3948 AR), in particular, i s conducting the first national forest inventory, executing applied research and developing the regulatory framework for the conservation and improvedmanagement of native forests. The Bank i s also working with the GOA in researching techniques, improving the regulatory framework and strengthening institutions for the improved management and utilization of planted forests through the Forestry Development Project. B. Objectives 0 To evaluate carbon sequestration and substitution potential through LULUCFprojects 0 To build capacity for the assessment of carbon sequestration and substitution potential from afforestation and reforestation projects 0 To identify carbon sequestration and substitution projects that can be implemented through the C D M 0 To contribute to the development of policy options to promote carbon sequestration through afforestation, reforestation, and deforestation prevention measures C. Activities 1. Review results and recommendations of NSS and other emission mitigation studies for the implementation of carbon sequestratiodsubstitution programs 2. Identificationof areas suitable for afforestation andreforestation. This activity involves: (a) Review of national maps andforest inventories (b) Survey and evaluation of biomass functions, wood density values, and growth rates of different tree species that show potential for carbon sequestration (c) Selection of modelingtools to estimate carbon capture 3. Assessment of carbon sequestration factors 4. Assessment of methodologies for baseline determination for potential afforestation and reforestation projects 5. Assessment o f economic cost and social impacts o f reforestation as substitutes for agricultural land. Estimate number of people affected, income levels, and output of economic activities before land conversion 96 Annex 12-C-4 6. Evaluation of policy measuresto avoid deforestation 7. Assessment of options and opportunities for bio-energy. This activity entails a cost-benefit analysis of activities such as: (a) Collection and interpretation of bio-energy data to promote its use through effective policies (b) Assessment of the potential role of bio-energy as a major contributor to the total energy balance (c) Selection and preliminary formulation of case studies 8. Evaluation of the legal and regulatory framework for the forestry sector at regional and national levels 9. Evaluation of the potential and the feasibility of campaigns aimed at reducing: i)the production of disposable wood products; and ii)the recyclingof wood products 10. Survey andcost-benefit analysis of options to improvereporting andcontrol of wildfires 11. Assessment of CDM opportunities for carbon sequestrationand substitution andestimation of marginal cost functions D. Expected outputs 1. Assessment of the carbon sequestrationand substitution potentialof the country 2. Contributions to policy formulation for the promotion of bio-energy and replacement by wood of energy-intensive products 3. Identification of sites and parameters for potential projects that can be implemented through the CDM inthe LULUCFsector E. Suggestedreferences A source of funding for potential carbon sequestration and substitution programs is the Bank's Bio-Carbon Fund. Information on program can be obtained at the following website: http://www,biocarbonfund.ora/ 97 Annex 12-C-5 NATIONALMITIGATIONPLAN EMISSIONMITIGATIONTHROUGHREDUCTIONINMETHANE EMISSIONS PRELIMINARY TERMS OF REFERENCE A. Background Methane i s produced and emitted as a result of digestive processes that take place in the stomach of ruminant animals. The amount of methane emitted during enteric fermentation varies according to a variety of factors, which include, among others, diet, chemicals ingested, grazing methods, and environmental conditions. The revision of the 1997 GHGemission inventory, published in 1999,provides the latest figures available on GHG emissions from the agriculture and livestock sectors. According to the report, the livestock sector alone i s responsible for approximately 35% o f the total GHG emissions in Argentina, which are primarily methane but also, include nitrous oxide. More specifically, approximately 68% o f the total methane emissions in Argentina are released by the agriculture and livestock sector. Cattle release approximately 92% of the total methane emissions liberated from enteric fermentation. Current enteric methane figures have been estimated usingemission factors developed abroad, which may not be representative of local cattle raising practices and conditions. This component of the project therefore addresses the need to evaluate enteric methane emissions from cattle in Argentina, proposes initiatives to reduce the amount of emissions. B. Objectives 0 To perform monitoring and sampling of Argentine livestock emissions inorder to determine local emissions o f methane by enteric fermentation processes To compare these measured factors with those used inthe prediction of methane emissions in the country If significant differences exist between measured and estimated factors, this study will develop a method to adjust emission figures included in GHG inventories 0 To contribute to the development of programs that reduce methane emissions from enteric fermentation To increase transparency inthe reporting of methane emission data C. Activities 1. Compile all existinginformationon methane emissions from livestockinArgentina 2. Determine methodology and sources of data used to determine current methane emissions factors. Provide documentation to assess how the current factors were determined 3. Review figures of methane emissions from countries with significant livestock industries (Le. US., Canada, New Zealand). Refer to the web-based Emission Factor Database for global measurements of methane emissions. 4. Review work currently being done on methane emission from livestock in Uruguay and Brazil. Assess the similarity of conditions and the possibility of participating in studies currently underway. 5. Obtain standardized methodology for sampling o f methane emissions from enteric fermentation (i.e SF6technology) 6. With input from Steering Committee and relevant stakeholders, establish representative sites for sampling of methane emissions 7. Measure methane emissions at these selected sites 8. Compare measured emissions and local background factors with those form other countries considered 9. Determine the validity of using published emission factors to characterize Argentine conditions. If new factors are significantly different from those previously used, develop new factors, following standardized methodologies, which are representative of local conditions 10. Once national methane emissions from enteric fermentation have been determined, identify potential methods or technologies that can be used to reduce the level of emissions from livestock 98 Annex 12-C-5 11. This activity will involve an active consultation process with relevant local scientists who are currently conducting research on the topic. Consult, among others, representatives of the INTA and of the Secretary of Agriculture 12. Evaluate costs and benefits (related to reduction of emissions and to increaseddecreases of livestock productivity) of possible alternatives, such as changes in livestock diet to decrease final methane release 13. Design programs for the implementation o f the most feasible alternatives, which would be incorporated in a NationalEmissionMitigation Plan D. Expectedoutputs 1. Establishment of methodology for sampling methane emissions from enteric fermentation in Argentina 2. Quantification of methane emissions from enteric fermentation inthe country 3. Evaluation of the adequacy of current methane emission factors and, if necessary, development of more representative factors 4. Assessment of current alternatives for the reduction of methane emissions from livestock 5. Contributions to the development of methane emission mitigation programs 99 Annex 12-D-1 PROMOTIONOF PUBLICAWARENESS TRAINING PROGRAM PRELIMINARY TERMSOF REFERENCE A. Objectives To develop an educational program on the issue of climate change 0 To educate the general population on the impacts of climate change and on existing, feasible, mitigation actions 0 To buildinstitutional capacity on the issue of climate change B. Activities 1. Coordinate a local and national institutional framework for the implementation of the program 2. Establish coordinating group for educational campaign. Group will have a core working on issues at the national levelbut will have localrepresentation 3. Assess existingresources, Le. facilities, personnel, institutionalsupport, etc. 4. Review, evaluate, and update current programs and educational initiatives on climate change- related issues 5. Locate professionals with background on the climate change issue to prepare educational material and conduct training programs 6. Develop educational material for different age groups (i.e. primary, secondary and university level) consisting of manuals, brochures, booklets, etc. Material should include coverage on issues such as: i)drivers of climate change; ii)impacts of climate change in the national and global context; iii)mitigation and adaptation alternatives; and iv) influence o f individual behavior on national and global impact 7. Produce educational material geared to professionals, which can be distributed to employees of all economic sectors 8. Train teachers at the primary and elementary level on how to educate children about climate change and its impacts 9. Organize educational seminars and working groups, in Buenos Aires and around the country, for government officials, major stakeholders, and leaders of community groups. 10. Organize seminar for entrepreneurs, to which foreign investors will be invited. Seminars should stress issues related to: i)emissions; ii)mitigation and adaptation strategies; and iii)benefits of CDMand opportunities for private investment 11. Contact authorities conducting environmental education at institutions at the local and national level to informthem of the program and to incorporate them inthe implementation phase 12. Contact research institutions, academia, NGOs, government agencies and others to raise awareness about the program 13. Upgrade the OAMDL website to host the "National Climate Change website" 14. Conduct periodic surveys to assess the effectiveness of the campaign, in relation to the extent of the population reached and on the quality of the information transmitted 15. Develop a manual that compiles the methodology and the procedures involved in organizing and conducting a public awareness campaign C. Expectedoutputs 1. Development of educational material on climate change for all ages and all sectors of the economy 2. Training of educators on how to teach climate change-related topics 3. National education campaign, backed by local and national authorities, on the relevance of climate change 4. Increased institutional capacity and coordination, at the national and regional level, on issues relatedto climate change 5. Raised level o f awareness concerning climate change issues 6. Improvements inthe perception of the impact of individual actions on national mitigationefforts 100 Annex 12-D-2 PROMOTION OF PUBLICAWARENESS PROMOTIONAL CAMPAIGN PRELIMINARY TERMS OF REFERENCE A. Objectives 0 To develop a promotional campaign that will raise awareness on the issue of climate change 0 To educate the general population on the impacts of climate change and on the existing feasible mitigation actions 0 To promote national training program on climate change B. Activities 1. Coordinate nationalframework for the dissemination of the promotional campaign 2. Design a promotional campaign that incorporates the five pillars of environmentally responsible behavior, namely: a) awareness; b) knowledge; c) attitude; d) skills; and e) participation 3. Link promotional campaign to national training program. Promote the objectives of the training program 4. Locate professionals with background on the climate change issue to prepare promotional material. 5. Develop material that reaches all ages and backgrounds. Ensure consistency with material used for the training program 6. Maintain campaign's highprofile at the national level 7. Develop a cartoon character that symbolizes the campaign against the drivers of climate change, which can be used in the advertising of educational programs and mitigation initiatives. Include the cartoon character in all climate change-related advertisement andliterature 8. Identify events of relevant content around the country, where the campaign can be showcased 9. Identify regional and national celebrities (i.e. political, sports, entertainment) willing to publicly to endorse the climate change awareness program 10. Include promotionalmaterial on the OAMDL website for the "National Climate Change website" 11. Conduct periodic surveys to assess the effectiveness of the campaign, in relation to the extent of the population reached and on the quality of the information transmitted 12. Develop a manual that compiles the methodology and the procedures involved in organizing and conducting a public awareness campaign C. Expectedoutputs 1. Nationalpromotional campaign on the relevance of climate change 2. Promotion of training program 3. Raisedlevel of awareness, at the national level, concerning climate change issues 101 Annex 12-E DRAFTINGOF SECOND NATIONALCOMMUNICATION TO UNF'CCC PRELIMINARY TERMSOF REFERENCE A. Objectives 0 To draft the Second Communication of the Argentine Republic to the UNFCCC B. Activities 1. Review UNFCCC methodology for draftingof NationalCommunications and inparticular, the new guidelines for the preparation of NationalCommunications accordedin CP.8. 2. Review all material included inthe FirstCommunication andmethodology followed for its compilation 3. Review all material developedfor SecondCommunication 4. Submit outline of Second Communication to Steering Committee for approval 5. Submit regular progressreports to SteeringCommittee C. Expectedoutputs 1. Second Communication of the Argentine Republic to the UNFCCC 102 Annex 12-F-1 PROJECT COORDINATOR PRELIMINARY TERMS OF REFERENCE A. Background A Project Implementation Unit (PIU) will be institutedto oversee the implementation of the project. The PIU will provide logistical and administrative support to the Steering Committee and to the Fundacidn Bariloche. The unit will also act as a link between the Steering Committee and the consultantsconducting all the project studies The PlUwill consist of five members: i.Onegeneralcoordinator ii.Onetechnicalexpertresponsibleformattersconcerningmitigationandadaptationplans iii.Onetechnicalexpertresponsibleformattersrelatedtovulnerabilitystudies iv. One technical assistant v. One procurement expert The PIU office will be located within the premises of the Fundacidn Bariloche but its costs of operation will be coveredby project funds B. Ojectives To coordinate and superviseall logisticaland administrative activities performed by the PIU 0 To act as a bridge betweenthe Steering Committee, the Fundacidn Bariloche, and the consultants working on the various project components C. Activities 1. Coordinate andsupervisethe activities ofthe PIUstaff 2. Overseethe preparation and submissionof periodic activity reports of the PIUto the World Bank 3. Ensurecommunication betweenWorld Bank and all relevant parties involvedinthe project 4. Carry out coordination activities betweenthe Steering Committee and the Fundacio'nBariloche 5. Draft final terms of reference for consultants, to be approved by Steering Committee, prior to initiation of consultant selectionactivities 6. Assist in the identification of local and international consultants that may carry out project components 7. Establish format for delivery of project components 8. Review qualifications of all candidates who submit proposals for project studies. Coordinator will screen candidates prior to the submittal of their curriculum vita to the Steering Committee for final selection 9. Ensurecommunications betweenthe Steering Committee and all hiredconsultants 10. Assist SteeringCommittee with monitoringand evaluation of overall project activities 11. Ensure compliance of all consultants with pre-accorded commitments (i.e. dates of submission and deliverables) 12. Performinitial review of studies delivered by consultants 13. Ensurecompliance of all activities with project chronogram 14. Act as a bridge between national and regional agencies involved in issues relevant to the project, seeking coordination that will benefit the execution of the project 15. Facilitate institutional arrangements that will provide support to consultants at the regional and national level 16. Assist consultantsinall coordination and organization activities relatedto workshops 17. Assist inthe compilation of all information to be included inthe SecondCommunication 18. Assist in the coordination of activities related to the publishingand distribution of the Second Communication 103 Annex 12-F-2 TECHNICALEXPERTRESPONSIBLEFORMITIGATION AND ADAPTATION PRELIMINARYTERMS OF REFERENCE A. Background A Project Implementation Unit (PIU) will be instituted to oversee the implementation of the project. The PIU will provide logistical and administrative support to the Steering Committee and to the Funducidn Buriloche. The unit will also act as a link between the Steering Committee and the consultants conducting all the project studies The PIUwill consist of five members: 1. One general coordinator ii. Onetechnicalexpertresponsibleformattersconcerningmitigationandadaptationplans iii. Onetechnicalexpertresponsibleformattersrelatedtovulnerability studies iv. One technical assistant V. One procurement expert The PIU office will be located within the premises of the Funducidn Buriloche but its costs of operation will be covered by project funds B. Objectives 1. To provide implementation support for the development of mitigation andadaptation studies C. Activities 1. Coordinate the implementation of all activities related to the development of mitigation and adaptation plans 2. Assist Project Coordinator overseeing the execution of components related to the development of mitigationand adaptation plans 3. Advise Project Coordinator on all aspects related to the development of mitigation and adaptation plans 4. Provide support for communication between consultants developing mitigation and adaptation plans and governmental agencies 5. Oversee contracts of all consultants developing mitigation and adaptation plans 6. Provide logistical support to the Steering Committee for matters related to mitigation and adaptation studies 104 Annex 12-F-3 TECHNICAL EXPERT RESPONSIBLEFORVULNERABILITY STUDIES PRELIMINARY TERMS OF REFERENCE A. Background A Project Implementation Unit (PIU) will be instituted to oversee the implementation of the project. The PIU will provide logistical and administrative support to the Steering Committee and to the Funducio'n Buriloche. The unit will also act as a link between the Steering Committee and the consultants conducting all the project studies The PIUwill consist o f five members: i. Onegeneralcoordinator ii. Onetechnicalexpertresponsibleformattersconcerningmitigationandadaptationplans iii. Onetechnicalexpertresponsibleformattersrelatedtovulnerabilitystudies iv. One technical assistant V. One procurement expert The PIU office will be located within the premises of the Funducidn Bariloche but its costs of operation will be covered by project funds B. Objectives 2. To provide implementation support for the execution of all vulnerability studies C. Activities 1. Coordinate the implementation of all activities related to the development of vulnerability studies 2. Assist Project Coordinator overseeing the execution of components related to vulnerability studies 3. Advise Project Coordinator on all aspects related to the development of vulnerability studies 4. Provide support for communication between consultants developing mitigation and adaptation plans and governmental agencies 5. Oversee contracts of all consultants carrying out vulnerability studies 6. Provide logistical support to the Steering Committee for matters related to mitigation and adaptation studies 105 Annex 12-F-4 TECHNICAL ASSISTANT PRELIMINARY TERMS OF REFERENCE A. Background A Project Implementation Unit (PIU) will be instituted to oversee the implementation of the project. The PIU will provide logistical and administrative support to the Steering Committee and to the Fundacidn Bariloche. The unit will also act as a link between the Steering Committee and the consultants conducting all the project studies The PIUwill consist of five members: 1. One general coordinator ii. Onetechnicalexpertresponsibleformattersconcerningmitigationandadaptationplans iii. Onetechnicalexpertresponsibleformattersrelatedtovulnerabilitystudies iv. One technical assistant V. One procurement expert The PIU office will be located within the premises o f the Fundacidn Bariloche but its costs of operation will be covered by project funds B. Objectives 3. To carry out support activities for the members of the PIUand the Steering Committee 4. To help inthe compiling and processing of reports andinformation 5. To provide support for the computer needs of the PlU C. Activities 1. Serve as logistical and administrative support for the PIUand the Steering Committee 2. To manage the computer resources of the PIU 3. To process, compile and catalog incoming reports 4. Assist consultants with general organization activities 106 Annex 12-F-5 PROCUREMENTEXPERT PRELIMINARY TERMS OF REFERENCE A. Background A Project Implementation Unit (PJU) will be instituted to oversee the implementation of the project. The PIU will provide logistical and administrative support to the Steering Committee and to the Fundacidn Buriloche. The unit will also act as a link between the Steering Committee and the consultants conducting all the project studies The PIUwill consist of five members: i. Onegeneralcoordinator ii. Onetechnicalexpertresponsibleformattersconcemingmitigationandadaptationplans iii. Onetechnicalexpertresponsibleformattersrelatedtovulnerability studies iv. One procurement expert V. One administrative assistant The PIU office will be located within the premises o f the Funducidn Bariloche but its costs of operation will be covered by project funds B. Objectives 6. To assist the Fundacidn Bariloche in all activities related to the hiring and payment of consultants 7. To assist the Fundacidn Bariloche in all procurement activities related to the project C. Activities 1. Ensure that all consultant selection activities comply with World Bank procedures 2. Verify that all contracts to be signed by consultants comply with World Bank procedures 3. Assist the Fundacidn Bariloche in all general accounting activities related to the project and ensure compliance with Bank procedures 4. Assist Project Coordinator inthe draftingof periodic activity reports to the World Bank 5. Verify timely payment of consultants 107 Annex 13 GHGEmissionsInventories1990,1994, and 1997 TableA.l Emissions of GHGby type of gas and by economic activity (inpercentage) Source: Revision of the First Communication of the Government of Argentina to the UNFCCC, October 1999 Notes: 1. Emissions were computed andconvertedto MTCE 2. Table does not include emissionshinks from land use change and forestry activities (LUCF) 3. COz- Carbondioxide; CHI - Methane; N20- Nitrousoxide; HFC - Hydrochlorofluorocarbons;PFC -Perfhorocarbons; SF6 -Sulphurhexafluoride. Activities related to the production of energy (including the transportation sector) account for 50% of the total emissions of the country. The share o f the agriculture and livestock sectors to the total balance of emissions i s high, contributing to approximately 41% of total GHG emissions. 108 Annex 13 Emissions from the energy sector Table A.2 summarizes the relative proportions of GHG emitted by the energy sector. The tow most significant sources of emissions are combustion of fossil fuels, releasing approximately 89% of the total COz,and fugitive emissions, releasing practically 95% of the total methane releases of the sector. co2 CH4 N2O NO, co voc NM Combustion of fossil fuels 88.6 5.O 83.3 98.2 47.1 85.5 Fugitive emissions 3.3 94.7 0.0 0.6 34.5 9.1 Biomass combustion 8.1 0.3 0.0 1.3 18.4 5.4 Emissions from the transportation sector Table A.3 shows the breakdown of the energy consumption of the transportation and farming sectors in 1997. The largest share of emissions i s released as a result of road transportation activities. TableA.3 Emissions of GHGfrom mobile sources in 1997 (inpercentages) Source: Revision of the First Communication of the Government of Argentina to the UNFCCC, October 1999 Notes: 1. NO, -Nitrogenoxides; CO- CarbonOxide; NMVOC - NonMethane Volatile Organic Compounds. Emissions from the Agriculture and livestock sectors Approximately 68% o f the total methane emissions in Argentina are released by the agriculture and livestock sectors. Methane i s emitted during animal digestion by the microorganism in the animal's digestive track. Cattle, for instance, releases approximately 92% o f the methane emissions liberated from enteric fermentation. Manure may also release methane if stored and allowed to ferment. Only emissions from cattle and pork 109 Annex 13 manure are of relevance in Argentina. Agricultural soils may release nitrous oxides through microbial processes of nitrification and denitrification. Agricultural activities may add nitrogen to the soil increasing the amount that can be releasedto the atmosphere. Nitrogen addition takes place in various forms, among which: i)application of fertilizers; ii)cultivation of nitrogen fixing crops; iii)manure spreading; iv) grazing livestock; and v) runoff waters with high nitrogen content. The contribution of agricultural soils to the GHG balance of Argentina, and specifically to the release of nitrous oxide is considerable, amounting to approximately 21% of the total NO2emissions in 1997. 110 =? Z Q Z $ $ 3 3 p Bs . .- N w m 2 3 d Z
Groupe de la Banque mondiale · Project Appraisal Document
Argentina - Segunda Comunicación Nacional de República Argentina para la convención del proyecto sobre cambio climático,الأرجنتين- مشروع البلاغ الوطني الثاني المقدم من جمهورية الأرجنتين إلى الاتفاقية المتعلقة بتغير المناخ ,Argentina - Second National Communication of Argentine Republic to the Convention on Climate Change Project (Argentine - Deuxième projet de communication nationale de la République d'Argentine à la Convention sur le changement climatique)
Voir le document original
Le texte intégral est hébergé par l’organisation qui le publie. lawenc.com indexe les métadonnées et renvoie vers la source officielle.
Texte intégral
Informations clés
Organisation
Groupe de la Banque mondiale
Type de document
Project Appraisal Document
Pays
Argentine
Source
Banque mondiale