Skilled - manpower demand projections for irrigation projects in Northwest Mexico

This paper is prepared for staff use and is not for publication. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the Bank. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR REOONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Economics Department Working Paper No. 83 SKILLED-MANPOWER DEMIND PROJECTIONS FOR I T7T iN NORTSTMO XICO June 1970 This study was prepared for the Bank by Dr. I. Haissman. It aims to give a simple, practical method for calculating the skilled- manpower requirements of irri,ation projects in developing countries and designing schooling systems for training of the necessary personnel. The method proposed is presented as applied, step, by step, to the irrigation of Northwest Mexico. The study defines the occupations required in irrigation project development, shows in what activities each is deployed, and gives stand- ards for manpower requirements as a function of the irrigated area, crop type, land tenure system and other parameters. The study then develops a netwoork-flows model which calculates the training system necessary for a given project in the usual case where the schedule of development of the irrigated area is predeterained. A linear progr;ming model is also developed to optizize the rate of irrigated area development -- maximizing net project benefits under the constraint that no manpower deficiencies will occur. A note on the cost of t'raining precedes the summar:y and conclusions. The author wishes to thank first and foremost Messrs. H. G. van der Tak and S. Reutlinger whose initiative and interest made this study possible. Sincere appreciation is likewise expressed to the many Mexican officials, too numerous to be named here individually., who have shown wholehearted cooperation in furnishing much of the data which served as a basis for this study. Sector and Projects Studies Division Prepared by: I. Haissman (Consultant)  TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. I. NTRD CTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1. Purpose and Scope of the Study ...... . . . . 1 2. Outline of the Study . ............. . ... 2 3. Methodological Remarks ............................ 3 II. OCCUPATIONS AND ACTIVITIES IN IRRIGATION PROJECT DEVELMOPMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 4 1. Occupations Defined in Training and Experience . . . 4 2. Occupations Required by Activity. .......... 7 III. STANDARDS POR MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS ...................... 11 1. Use of the Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2. Basis for the Standards. ........... . . . . 12 3. Presentation of the Standards ...... 16 IV. INFLUENCE OF CROP AND LAND TENURE SYSTEM ON JMANPOER MEQUIREIMENTS .... . . . . . . . 36 1. Methodology .... . .............................. 36 2. Agricultural Manpower Requirements . . . . . . . . . 37 3. Non-Agricultural Manpower Requirements........ 50 V. A NETWORK-FLOWS MODXfL OF SKILLED-MANPOWER TRAINING FOR THE HYDRAULIC PLAN OF THE NORTHWEST (PLHINO) . . . . 57 1. Description of the PLHINO ..........................57 2. Skilled-Manpower Requirements of the PLHINO . . . . . 63 3. Skilled-Manpower Requirements of Presently Irrigated Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 4. The Network-Flows Model ..................... ...... 68 VI. A LINEAR PROGRAMMING MODEL FOR OPTIMIZING THE RATE OF DEVELOPMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 1. The Model . .. . . . ........... ...... ..* 81 2. The Computation .............. . . . . . . . 83  Page No0. 3. The ResuLlts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 4. The Case of Manlpowe-r Deficiencies ........................ 87 5. Conclusions . ...................... .......... . .89 VII. THE COST OF TRAINING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 VIII. CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH . . . e 93 1. Conclussions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 2. Suggestions for Further Research .................. 95 List of Tables II-i Correlation of Project Activities with the Necessary Agricultural Occupations ............* .... .8 IT-2 Correlation of Project Activities with the Necessary Technical Occupations . .... . . .. . .. . . .. . . . .. 9 II-3 Correlation of Project Activities with the Necessary Commercial Occupations and Crafts ........... . 10 *11-1 Standards for Manpower Demands in Occupations Required on Irrigation Projects ................................16 IV-1 Skilled-Manpower Requirements of a Bypothetical 100,000-ha. Projects: Agricultural Occupations . . . . . 41 IV-2 Demand for Skilled-Personnel in Agricultural, Occupations on the Hypothetical Project, as a Function of the Land Tenure System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 47 IV-3 Proportions of Professional Agricultural Personnel in Different Specializations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 IV-4 Demand for Agricultural Professionals as a Function of Crop for a 100,000-ha. Area .................... 48 IV-, Demand for Agricultural Subprofessionals as a Function of Crop for a 100,000-ha Area .............. . . . 49 iv-6 Demand for Agricultural Professionals for Each trop as Percentage of Dlmand in the PLHINO Pattern ............... 49 IV.-7 Demand for Agricultural Subprofessionals for each Crop as Percentage of Demand in the PLHINO Pattern . .... 49  Page No. List of Tables IV-8 Technical Manpower Required for a 100,000 ha. Project . . 52 IV-9 High-Grade Comnercial Personnel Required for a 100,000 ha. Project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . 53 IV-10 Low-Grade Commercial Personnel Required for a 100,000 ha. Project . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . 54 IV-ll Craftsmen Required for a 100,000 ha. Project . ..... 55 V-1 The Phasing of Development of the PLHIN0 Projects . . . . 60 V-2 The Planned Cropping Pattern for the PLHINO Projects. . * 61 V-3 The Planed Land Tenure Pattern for the PLHINO Projects . 62 V-4 Skilled-Manpower Requirements of the PLHTNO Projects. . . 64 V-5 Skilled-Manpower Requirements on the Presently Irrigated Areas in NW Mexico ........................ . 67 v-6 Initial Endowments (1970) Necessary for the Development of Skilled Manpower in Northwest Mexico . . . . . . e. . 75 V-7 Student hrollment Necessary for Providing Agricultural Manpower for the PLHINO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 76 V-8 Total Student Enrollment Necessary for Providing Agricultural Manpower to the Entire Irrigated Area in NW Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 77 VII-l Budget Requirenents of Agricultural Education in NW Mexico ... ......... . ..............................92 List of Figres II-1 Schooling and Experience Requirements of Different Occupa- tions .* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 V-1 PLHINO - Hydraulic Plan of Nor-twest Mexico . . . . . . . 59 V-2 The System of Development of Skilled Agricultural Personnel 69 V-3 A Part of the Network-Flows Model ........................ 70 VI-1 Schematic Irrigated Area Development Schedule . . . . . . 80  - iv' -tti Page No. List of-Figure EI-2 the Manpower-Optimal Development Schedule . . s. . . . 86 VI-3 Response of Net Benefits to Density of Skilled Personnel 88 VI-4 Response of Net Benefits to Area per Agronomist . . . 88 t l N, N a =,, x < as, a , m, ' ,, > +YJa;-tAi.,,a;.X,:Bz t-zwisStEX1s.sw:xti*.t.u:tg