China - Forest Resource Development and Protection Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: 24206-CN IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT (IDA-26230; TF-28737) ON A CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 141.7 MILLION (US$ 200 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA FOR A FOREST RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AND PROTECTION PROJECT June 27, 2002 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective January 2002) Currency Unit = Yuan (Y) Yuan I = US$ 0.1205 US$ 1 = Y 8.30 Year Average 1994 $1 = Y8.50 1995 $I = Y8.30 1996 $1 = Y8.30 1997 $1.= Y8.30 1998 $1 = Y8.30 1999 $1 = Y8.30 2000 $1 = Y8.30 2001 $1 = Y8.30 FISCAL YEAR January I - December 31 Weights and Measures Metric System ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CAF Chinese Academy of Forestry CAS Country Assistance Strategy CTBEP Commercial Timber Base Establishment Program ERR Economic Rate of Return FRDPP Forest Resource Development and Protection Project FRR Financial Rate of Return GEF Global Environment Facility ICR Implementation Completion Report IMPC Intensively Managed Plantation Component MPFC Multiple-Use Protection Forest Component NAP National Afforestation Project NFPP Natural Forest Protection Program NPV Net Present Value PMC Project Management Center (in SFA) PMO Project Management Office R&E Research and Extension RESP Planning and Extension Support Panels SAR Staff Appraisal Report SDR Special Drawing Right SFA State Forestry Administration Vice President: Jemal-ud-din Kassum, EAPVP Country Manager/Director: Yukon Huang, EACCF Sector Manager/Director: Mark. D. Wilson, EASRD Task Team Leader/Task Manager: Liu Jin, EASRD  CHINA FOREST RESOURCE DEV CONTENTS Page No. 1. Project Data I 2. Principal Performance Ratings 1 3. Assessment of Development Objective and Design, and of Quality at Entry I 4. Achievement of Objective and Outputs 3 5. Major Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcome 8 6. Sustainability 10 7. Bank and Borrower Performance 12 8. Lessons Leamed 13 9. Partner Comments 14 10. Additional Information 14 Annex 1. Key Performance Indicators/Log Frame Matrix 15 Annex 2. Project Costs and Financing 17 Annex 3. Economic Costs and Benefits 21 Annex 4. Bank Inputs 23 Annex 5. Ratings for Achievement of Objectives/Outputs of Components 24 Annex 6. Ratings of Bank and Borrower Performance 25 Annex 7. List of Supporting Documents 26 Annex 8. Implementation Agency ICR Brief 7   Project ID: P003557 Project Name: FOREST RESOURCE DEV Team Leader: Jin Liu TL Unit: EASRD ICR Type: Core ICR Report Date: June 27, 2002 1. Project Data Name: FOREST RESOURCE DEV L/C/TFNumiber: IDA-26230; TF-28737 Country/Department: CHINA Region: East Asia and Pacific Region Sector/subsector: AT - Forestry; VM - Natural Resources Management KEY DATES Original Revised/Actual PCD: 1992-06-29 Effective: 1994-11-03 Appraisal: 1993-11-05 MTR: 1997-05-01 Approval: 1994-06-07 Closing: 2001-12-31 Borrower/mn1plementing Agency: People's Republic of China/State Forestry Administration Other Partners: STAFF Current At Appraisal Vice President: Jemal-ud-din Kassum Gautam S. Kaji Country Manager: Yukon Huang Nicholas C. Hope Sector Manager: Mark D. Wilson Joseph Goldberg Team Leader at ICR: Liu Jin Richard Scobey ICR Primary Author: Pierre Sigaud (FAO); Zhou Weiguo (EASRD); Thomas Brummer (Consultant); Liu Fuyan (Consultant) 2. Principal Performance Ratings (HS=Highly Satisfactory, S=Satisfactory, U=Unsatisfactory, HL=Highly Likely, L=Likely, UN=Unlikely, HUN=Highly Unlikely, HU=Highly Unsatisfactory, H=High, SU=Substantial, M=Modest, N=Negligible) Outcome: S Sustainability: L Institutional Development Impact: SU Bank Performance: S Borrower Performance: S QAG (if available) ICR Quality at Entry: S Project at Risk at Any Time: No 3. Assessment of Development Objective and Design, and of Quality at Entry 3.1 Original Objective: The Forest Resource Development and Protection Project (FRDPP) was designed to enhance the  productivity of forestry resources, the efficiency of resource use, and the institutional capacity for sustainable management in the three major types of forest land in China: plantations, watershed protection forests and nature reserves. The project would: (a) expand the supply of commercial timber and pulpwood through establishment of intensively managed plantations; (b) develop improved models for watershed management through establishment of protection forests; (c) enhance biodiversity conservation through the protection of nature reserves; (d) strengthen the operating efficiency of technical support services in the forestry sector, particularly planting materials, research, and extension programs; and (e) strengthen the capacity of forest sector institutions in planning and management. The project objectives were clear and well understood by the participating agencies. The bulk of China's very limited timber supply was being drawn through unsustainable exploitation of natural forests in the past decades. The Government's Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP), whicb launched the logging ban for nature forests in 1998 further widened the timber supply gap. The project objectives supported the government's afforestation drive to improve timber supply, release the pressure on natural forests and improve the ecosystem. These objectives reflected Government development priorities and are consistent with the Bank's Country Assistance Strategy (CAS). The project design was relatively sirnple, and included introduction of improved silvicultural techniques, watershed land use models, environmental management guidelines, research priorities and extension of best practice for the forestry sectors and related government agencies. The market and price risks were manageable, since China has large gap of timber supply in its domestic market and the project can produce timber of different dimensions according to market conditions. The risks of pests or fire destroying the plantations were minimized by incorporating suitable environmental measures into the project design and adopting pest and fire monitoring systems. However, the project may not achieve expected benefits without continuing management inputs from the forestry entities and the Governments policy support for plantation logging. This could be promoted through appropriate post-project management arrangements and active government commitment. 3.2 Revised Objective: The project's objectives remained unchanged. 3.3 Original Components: The project has the following six components: (a) Intensively Managed Plantation Component would establish 620,000 hectares of plantations for timber supply in sixteen provinces as the second phase for the plantation program initiated under the National Afforestation Project (NAP); (b) Multiple-Use Protection Forest Component would establish 280,000 hectares of watershed protection forests in the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin in Sichuan and Hubei Provinces based on new silvicultural models and improved land-use planning; (c) Nature Reserves Management Component would enhance biodiversity conservation through support for new management of natural forest habitats for Giant Pandas and other endangered species, and development of new training, research, and information management programs; -2 -  (d) Planting Stock Development and Nursery Management Component would raise the quality of planting materials through introduction of improved genetic materials and nursery management technologies, and support the production of 2.1 billion seedlings for afforestation under the project. (e) Research and Technology Transfer Component would strengthen the operational focus of relevant research and extension in China through provision of technical assistance and operating support for eleven priority research programs, experimental plantations, and a field extension network; and (f) Institutional Capacity Building Component would strengthen the capacity of public and private sector institutions in forestry through support for training and technical assistance, development of an information management system, development of a new private sector investment promotion agency, improved natural forest management, and carry out policy studies. The components were reasonably.related to the project objectives. In response to the lessons learned from previous Bank supported projects, the project emphasized the introduction of new afforestation technologies, particularly improved planting materials and planting models for a wider range of species, integration of protection forests and nature reserves management into project activities and capacity building of forestry agencies. The formulation of Research and Extension (R&E) objectives and their translation to operational terms provided a sound basis for achieving the overall project objectives. The design recognized the need to depart from traditional research, and focus on more precise targets with immediate operational application for the implementation of the plantation and forest protection program. It also set up a unique arrangement, aimed at rapidly disseminating research results to field afforestation entities. However, the design was over-ambitious in regard to the rapid application of several of technologies, including clonal forestry and containerized seedlings. The design also heavily relied on reaping immediate benefits from short-term research programs, but underemphasized the ongoing long-term research that is necessary for sustained improvement of forest practices. 3.4 Revised Components: Component Cost Rating Intensively Managed Plantation $239,800,000 S Multiple-Use Protection Forest $ 44,700,000 S Nature Reserves Management $ 21,400,000 S Planting Stock Development and Nursery Management $ 41,000,000 S Research and Technology Transfer $ 4,400,000 S Institutional Capacity Building $ 3,500,000 S 3.5 Quality at Entry: The project was assessed for quality at entry and the rating was satisfactory. The project design is consistent with the Bank's CAS and government priorities, and was carefully structured to include meaningful innovations. The Bank's applicable safeguard policies on environmental assessment, natural habitats, pest management, and forestry were adhered to adequately. Project designers were aware of the enviromnent-economy-social linkages, and benefits were achieved in these three aspects. 4. Achievement of Objective and Outputs -3.  4.1 Outcome/achievement of objective: The project was carried out by State Forestry Administration ( former Ministry of Forestry), 17 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, and 313 counties. The outcome of the project as a whole, both in relation to its development objectives and its physical implementation, is satisfactory. In principal, the project has achieved its objectives and yielded sound development impacts. The project has fully reached its objectives of extending the forest resources, which will expand commercial timber supply, developing improved models for watershed management, strengthening the technical support services on planting material, research and extension programs. It is expected to generate most of the economic and environmental benefits projected in the project Staff Appraisal Report (SAR) and the financial risk is considered to be acceptable. The project basically reached the objective of strengthening the institutional capacity. Under this aspect, the domestic training and extension program was extremely successful, which has effectively disseminated improved silvicultural technologies and project management experience to the project agencies and entities. As a result, institutional capacity building in forestry management was greatly improved. However, number of people involved in the overseas training and international technical assistance was less than the designed targets, which has limited the introduction of the experience from abroad. The project objectives and achievements were completely in line with the current Government development strategy and the Bank goals of environment improvement, technology transfer and institutional capacity building. As about one-third of the project counties are poverty counties, the project has had an impact on poverty reduction by generating employment opportunity and income raising for poor households in the remote areas. 4.2 Outputs by components: (1) Intensively Managed Plantation Component (IMPC) A total of 749,135 ha intensively managed plantations have been established, 121% of the SAR target for timber plantation establishment. Of these, about 59% are conifers, 28% are broadleaf trees and 13% are bamboo. This result has exceeded project design targets that required at least 23% of broadleaf trees and 7% of bamboo to be planted. Native Chinese species comprise 79% of total planting compared with the target of 75%. The plantations were in general well planted and tended, with average survival rate of 95%, and the plantation models and environment protection measures have been adopted in most planting sites. However, in some cases fertilizer applications were not enough or were applied too late. This occurred for two reasons: (a) organic matter was substituted for chemical fertilizer and there are no equivalent application rate standards; and (b) the project's centralized procurement system for fertilizer resulted in very long delays for the fertilizer delivery. In some plantation sites, the Environmental Protection Guidelines were not correctly followed. Deficiencies included planting lines not properly following the contour, incorrect terrace building allowing water to collect and flow down hill, insufficient water cut-offs on roads and paths and vegetation was not appropriately retained on slope bottoms. (2) Multiple-Use Protection Forest Component (MPFC) A total of 282,218 ha of multiple-use protection forests were planted, 101% of target. This component was designed to develop improved models for watershed management and improve land use plan in key degraded watersheds. Three categories of plantations were established: new planting in deforested sites 156,126 ha, hill closure to allow natural regeneration 86,992 ha, and enrichment planting on hill closure sites 39,100 ha, which are close to the design targets of 57.1%, 28.6% and 14.3% respectively. -4 -  The successfully implemented protection forest component has utilized a multiple use approach to ensure protection requirements and also allow economic activities such as fruit, nuts, medicinal plants production as well as controlled timber production. This approach will improve project entities and farmers' economic situation while local communities are able to enjoy environmental benefits such as higher levels of well water and less erosion in these rehabilitated catchments where they live. Many varieties of trees, shrubs and grasses have been planted or retained, which has improved the biodiversity. Soil erosion has been reduced and water runoff is better controlled in the project areas. For example, a monitoring plot in Chongqing Municipality showed a reduction of 30% in silt load following development of the protection forest. Plantation quality is generally good and the result is a vigorous vegetation cover in terms of both ground cover and vertical stratification, except on extreme sites such as slips at the very high altitudes where growth is much slower. Models for forest management in watersheds have been developed and some domestic programs have now adopted the protection models. Land use planning and catchment selection for the multiple-use protection forest component were based on master plans of integrated watershed management formulated by agencies of the forestry, agriculture and water resources sectors. Though integrated management has been successfully carried out for the forest zones, the progress of related activities carried out by agriculture and water resource departments in other zones outside the project areas has lagged behind and it will have the negative impacts on the overall functions of minimizing soil erosion and water runoff for some catchments. (3) Nature Reserves Management Component This component is designed to strengthen biodiversity conservation in nature reserves through testing of innovative approaches for organization, planning, skills development, information management, and the integration of local communities into reserve management. The implementation of the component focused on the following five aspects: (a) strengthening management of nature reserves; (b) restructuring the management of natural forests adjacent to nature reserves; (c) developing institutional capacity; (d) developing new nature reserve management information systems; and (f) supporting nature reserve research. This component is financed by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and was carried out separately as an independent project named the Nature Reserves Management Project. As informed by SFA, the implementation of this component (project) has reached it's expected targets and has had a broad positive impact on nature reserve management. The Nature Reserves Management Project was launched in July 1995 and will close on June 30, 2002. A separate project Implementation Completion Report (ICR) will be undertaken soon, hence that project's related evaluation including cost and financing has not been included in this report. (4) Planting Stock Development and Nursery Management Component Total tree stock production was 2.533 billion, 120% of SAR target, of which 94% were the first class planting stocks. The stocks were generally available on time and in the quantities and species planned. The real success of this component is the rapid dissemination of improved genetic materials from research programs into field planting. About 249 superior clones, 630 superior families and 35 superior provenances were developed for the major afforestation species. Clones were 7.8% of the planting stock production and container stocks were 13.6% of production, which have reached the SAR target of 5% and 14% respectively. Seedling production has made improvements in bed width reduction, mycorrhiza use, reduced sowing densities, use of root cuttings, increased use of colonel material and the use of plastic bag containerized stock. However, as the project supervision mission indicated, most of the plantations continued to exhibit a wider variation in tree height and diameter than that expected after the adoption of improved nursery technology and use of improved genetic material. The implication is that tree stocks were not correctly culled and graded, or properly transported and handled. It is an evident from field visits that the guidelines used for acceptance of planting material need to be more strict. Therefore, it seems that nursery management -5 -  remains a constraint on planting quality improvement and should be further improved in future forestry projects. (5) Research and Technology Transfer Component The ten research programs established under the NAP were to be carried out in the project. One new program was initiated on protection forests. The research programs have been closely linked with project plantation establishment and have contributed to a sustained flow of innovations. Integrated Research and Extension Support Panels (RESPs) at national, provincial and county levels have successfully planned and supervised research work, although the effectiveness of RESPs and Central Research Groups varied from one group to another. The organizational structure was generally rated as efficient by project staff interviewed. The majority of the individual research programs, carried out by Chinese Academy of Forestry (CAF) and provincial research institutions, have been rated satisfactory or very satisfactory, reflecting the quantity and quality of outputs. The most striking results are noticed in seed genetics quality and tree breeding improvement and the establishment of demonstration stands and pilot forests. For all important tree species within the project, provenance areas were identified, seed stands, seedling seed orchards and clonal seed orchards were established or improved, and clonal selection and propagation were started for a number of species. Except for loblolly pine, for which improved seed has still to be imported, national programs are now in a position to regularly supply site matching, high quality reproductive materials. This is one of the most significant achievements of the project, since it will contribute to upgrading of the quality of future plantations. The extension program, aimed at disseminating a specific set of technologies appears to have had a significant impact. The main technologies disseminated include: planting material selection and development, seedling production and nursery management, fast growing species cultivation, fertilization, thinning, protection forest planting and management, and pest control. Interviews of field technicians confirmed that they received significant amounts of technical training and information and adopted a series of new techniques for their plantation establishment. According to available data, 49 research results have been identified and disseminated and 317,000 copies of 161 technical guidelines were distributed at provincial level, while 36 publications received a ministerial level distribution. An area of 278 ha mid-term pilot plantations established during NAP has been followed-up under the project and 350 ha of new experimental plantations have been established, against the target of 140 ha. In addition, 402 ha of demonstration plantations have been established, against the project national research target of 120 ha, and about 13,674 ha of demonstration plantations also were planted by local project entities, combining various technological advancements. A larger than planned area of demonstration plantations was established because the field demonstrations were found extremely useful in guiding farmers to adopt new technologies. (6) Institutional Capacity Building Component Human Resource Development The implementation of training and consultant services is mixed. Project design recognized the need for a massive training program to popularize the new approach to forest establishment and management. The comprehensive training plan outlined in SAR has been implemented with considerable adaptation, giving priority to intemal and local training, which was up to 150,366 person-times to project staff, 361% of the target of 41,600 person-times, and 282,561 workers and farmers have also been trained with total of 14,461 classes offered, which reflects the fact that the project has made an exceptional effort to ensure that the new technical prescriptions reach end users in the fields. The successful domestic training has played a fundamental role for realizing the goal of technical transfer and - 6 -  institutional capacity building. In project areas, it isi found that a significant amount of funds were provided by provincial and local authorities from outside of the project budget, instead of using project funds, to support the local training and extension. The number of overseas study tours reached 156 person'times, 149% of the SAR target; overseas training reached 39 person-months, 65% of the target and international consultant services reached 60 person-days, against an SAR target of 225 and a revised Mid-term Review objective of 140. Project officials explained that the decrease in oversea training was due to reluctance of local managers to release staff for long-term overseas training and it was considered more worthwhile to arrange overseas tours for project staff to experience advanced forestry practices of other countries. The limited use of international consultancy has deprived the project of needed intemational expertise that could point out a number of deficiencies in project design or implementation. As a result, the technical assistance allocation of the Credit was reduced from Special Drawing Right (SDR) 1,370,000 to SDR 564,000, about 41% of the original figure. Natural Forest Management Pilot The pilot program to strengthen management of three secondary natural forests has followed a sound technical approach on forest management, through the establishment of thinning and tending programs and the scientific and technical description of priority tree species. As expected, preliminary results demonstrated the benefits of proactive technical intervention in the tree composition and structure. However, the pilot program did not address key socio-economic issues relating to the sustainable use of natural forests by neighboring communities and individuals, which is crucial for the success of natural forest management. Therefore, it is considered that the technical measures taken are only the first step towards a comprehensive approach to sustainable forest management. While this small scale program could help identify some key issues, higher level attention is needed to obtain a sustainable impact on natural forest management. Informnation System To improve the collection and management of forestry data, the project supported the expansion of the information system based on experience adopted from NAP. The system has been established at central, provincial, prefecture and county levels, but was largely simplified. The data include project progress, investment and material inputs, planting cost, growth of young plantations, and timber market price, which enabled effective monitoring of project progress, implementation quality, expenditure structure, market changes, and providing feedback to improve project management. During the project Mid-tem review, Fujian Private Investment Promotion Center was canceled and it has proved unnecessary because private forestry investmnent has increased more than ten times in Fujian Province in the past 7 years, and the policy study program was dropped due to the proposed studies had been carried out during the government's on-going policy reform. 4.3 Net Present Value/Economic rate of return: Economic analysis was carried out for each of the 31 species models. In comparison to the SAR projections, the analysis showed an overall improved and acceptable economic rate of return (ERR) for species models under the MPFC (ranging from 12 percent to 22 percent) and for species models under IMPC (ranging from 15 percent to 33 percent). For MPFC, the total number of models with negative NPV decreased from five at appraisal to only one at ICR where the ERR was improved for 6 out of a total of 11 models. For the IMPC, an impressively improved ERR was achieved for 6 out of total 18 models. Though the analysis showed a mixed result of economic performnance for various species models, the project as a whole yielded an ERR of 18.5 percent and a net present value (NPV) of Y 2,900 million ($350 million equivalent) at a discount rate of 12 percent, over a 25-year period. This result is quite robust to wide -7 -  changes in key variables. In addition, the project generated a total of about 420,000 full time jobs as alternative employment opportunities during the project implementation period. 4.4 Financial rate of return: Financial analysis using a cost and benefit analysis approach has been carried out for each species model, for the MPFC and IMPC, and the project as a whole. For consistency and compatibility purposes, the analysis followed the principles observed at project appraisal: (a) one rotation for all species, (b) complete production and harvesting costs, (c) complete actual investment costs, (d) on one-hectare model basis, (e) inclusion of residual values assumed in the final year for the protection forests, and (f) before tax and debt service. Benefits are derived from timbers, fruits, and by-products such as fuel wood and resin but neither investment for nor revenue from inter-cropping is considered. The analysis used a 25-year time period though a shorter growth period is required for some species models. Financial prices are in 2001 current prices. Actual import prices or the market prices actually paid were used for inputs. Weighted average roadside prices and average market prices collected from all project provinces for timber products and economic tree products. were used respectively. Yearly average daily rate for labor, provided by project areas, was used for each project implementation year. All these prices have been converted to 1994 constant prices deflated based on the official inflation indices during the period. Both MPFC and IMPC and the project as a whole show very marginally higher financial rates of returns (FRR) than those at project appraisal. The project overall FRR is projected at 17.7 percent. This was attributable mainly to (a) the increase in planted area, (b) favorable market prices for some products, (c) the decrease in establishment cost, and (d) adjusted residual value for protection tree species. The estimated FRRs are generally sensitive to market prices, assumptions about the stand's age at final harvest and their productivity. Overall FRR, however, would have been dropped to 15.2 percent if forest taxes and forest fees are included in the financial analysis. 4.5 Institutional development impact: The Project's impact on institutional development has been substantial. The project established an efficient administrative system within the provincial and county forestry bureaus, and the staff from thousands of counties, township extension stations and planting entities received training in new technologies, environmental protection and project management. This strengthened the capacity of project agencies and planting entities in planning and management. Strong linkages between research institutes with domestic experts and research programs with planting activities have enabled project agencies to quickly bring research results to field operation. The requirements for checking and evaluating quality criteria for many project operations have resulted in an appreciation of quality aspects. Environmental awareness and understanding of management requirements on forest rehabilitation and protection has been developed by the project, and important lessons are being extended within the forestry sector. However, the implementation of the overseas training and intemational technical assistance activities have not reached project targets, and this has limited the introduction of international technologies and experience from abroad. 5. Major Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcome 5.1 Factors outside the control ofgovernment or implementing agency: The domestic prices of timber increased slightly in real terms during the project period due to increasing timber demand and the ban on logging of natural forests. Wages increased slightly in real terrns also, but this cost increase was offset by reduced requirement of labor and other inputs for site preparation, planting - 8 -  and fertilizing. 5.2 Factors generally subject to government control: (a) Political support was mobilized from the provincial and county governnents through establishment of Leading Groups involving local high level officials and representatives of local finance and planning departments. It serves as a mechanism to ensure the cooperation of local officials in budgeting counterpart funds and cross sector support, etc. (b) Beginning from the second half of 1998, NFPP initiatives were launched in those areas with concentrated natural forests and strategic ecological locations. NFPP completely bans logging of the natural forests along upper reaches of the Yangtze River and upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River. Logging of the plantations has also been banned temporarily within the NFPP areas of Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou and Yunnan while forest classification is carrying out to consider alternative management systems. (c) The State Forestry Administration ( SFA) carried out an intemal restructuring in early 2001 and PMC has been assigned responsibility for national Commercial Timber Bases Establishment Program (CTBEP). Trying to keep the same structure, most of the project provincial forestry departments have merged provincial Project Management Offices (PMOs) with the offices that are currently responsible for the commercial plantation establishment. These arrangements will contribute to stability of the project management institutions for the post management of the plantations established under the project, and dissemination of project experience to government's programs across the China. 5.3 Factors generally subject to implementing agency control: The existence, prior to the project, of a well staffed and trained forestry agency and well-defined management structures provided a sound framework for project management. Weak coordination between financial departments and implementing agencies at successive levels led to delay in credit disbursement during the early period of the project implementation, but this problem was solved by improving coordination and linkages between financial management and technical quality control for the related agencies. The centralized procurement of fertilizers and pesticides carried out by PMC, the central project agency, was not appropriate for the project where project sites are scattered in 313 counties of 17 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities. Import quota restrictions and complex logistics led to fertilizer shortfalls and prolonged delays in delivery to farmers to meet the planting season. 5.4 Costs andfinancing: To reallocate more funds for plantation and allow participating project provinces to select most adaptable plantation models, three Bank-approved implementation adjustments were made during project implementation period. By year 2001, implementation of both MPFC and IMPC had been completed. Based on information provided by PMC, the total project cost was at $339.0 million, about 2 percent over the SAR estimate of $333.3 million (excluding cost for Nature Reserves Management component financed by GEF). This total project cost was likely underreported according to findings of the ICR mission field visits where applied organic manure was very often not valuated. In addition, as reported by PMC, about US$4.9 million were provided by the provincial and local authorities from the budget outside of the project to support local training and new technology transfer. As those funds have not been audited as part of the -9-  project cost, it was not included in the project cost mentioned in the report. While financing sources remain unchanged from the appraisal plan, both absolute and relative contributions by each source indeed changed. In general, contributions from all sources are reduced except beneficiary's contribution. The following table provides a summary of these changes. Of the total cost of $339.0 million, about 57 percent ($193.6 million) was funded by the World Bank, three percentage points lower than the project appraisal plan. The aggregated financial contributions of the government at all levels as a whole were reduced to 21 percent ($71.0 million) from the project appraisal plan, four percentage points lower. On the contrary, the beneficiary's contribution increased by 49 percent mostly in the formn of labor, organic manure and some limited amount of cash. A total of SDR 140.3 million was disbursed and there was an undisbursed balance of SDR 1.45 million in the project account, which was cancelled from the credit. Change of Contribution at ICR from Appraisal by Financing Source Item _____________ Financing Sources ($million) l IDA Government Beneficiaries Total Contribution at Appraisal by Value 200.0 83.3 50.0 333.3 Contribution at Appraisal by % 60.0% 25.0% 15.0% 100.0% Contribution at ICR by Value 193.6 71.0 74.4 339.0 Contribution at ICR by % 57.1% 20.9% 21.9% 100.0% Chang by Value -6.4 -12.4 24.4 5.6 Change by Percentage Point -3.2% -14.8% 48.7% 1.7% Change by Relative Contribution -2.9% -4.1% 6.9% 0.0% 6. Sustainability 6.1 Rationale for sustainability rating: Project sustainability is likely. Most of the physical project activities have been completed and the plantations are virtually certain to survive and generate economic and financial returns and environmental benefits as forecast. Project offices at the county, provincial and national levels remain in place and they or their successors are monitoring the tending, thinning, pest and fire prevention of the plantations, and the loan repayment activities of the afforestation entities. The silvicultural and management techniques and management experience developed during the project have been used in the Bank supported Forestry Development in Poor Areas Project and the Sustainable Forestry Development Project, and are now being adopted in many other plantation programs and individual plantations across the country. Continued liberalization and economic growth in China will be favorable to timber markets and project production. The Government's NFPP and CTBEP launched in 1998 and 2001 respectively focus on the protection of natural forest and increase of the forest resource by establishing plantations to release the pressure on natural forests and meet timber needs. Therefore, the Government will continue to support the plantation management and at the same time domestic prices of timber are likely to increase. However, 107,151 hectares of intensively managed plantations and 120,564 hectares of multiple-use protection forests established under the project, about 14.3% and 42.7% of the total separately, are located in the areas where logging has been banned. Unless the timber plantation logging related issue is resolved, the future management of those plantations, economic benefits and repayment by the project entities are threatened. SFA informed that a pilot on logging and replanting plantations in a sustainable way has been successfully carried out in Sichuan Province, and central and provincial governments have confirmed that the pilot will likely be extended to other regions. The relevant policies and specific steps to address -10 -  problems associated with the logging ban are currently under review and more sustainable solutions will likely be implemented in the near future. However, close monitoring of the solutions on logging ban related issues will be necessary during the project post-management period. The final judgement on the impacts of logging ban could only be made after above subsequence are put in place. 6.2 Transition arrangement to regular operations: Plantations have a long gestation period before delivering their final economic benefits. Suitable arrangements for post-management of the plantations are essential if the expected project benefits are to be achieved. The various levels of government and project agencies have made the appropriate arrangements for this purpose: (a) Project management offices at the county, provincial and national levels will remain and they or their successors will continually provide the technical and management support for post-project management. (b) Fire and pest prevention arrangements, and technical services for plantation post-management have been integrated into the regular operation of the local forestry system. Significant loss due to fires or pests is unlikely because measures are in place to monitor and control these risks, and the project sites are in widely dispersed locations. (c) PMC, provincial and county PMOs will strengthen information services on the dynamic status of the timber markets to the project entities to improve the linkages between plantation management and market needs. Project entities will develop a thinning timing and technical regime for the main species based on the updated thinning guidelines formulated by the Sustainable Forestry Development Project. The final harvest will be required to follow relevant regulations and timely replanting will be carried out for sustainable management purposes. Provincial and county PMOs will develop a training plan for post plantation management and carry out the training, mainly on thinning and pruning techniques. (d) The need for continued support of basic research programs through public funding is strongly emphasized. The research agenda of CAF and provincial research institutions is increasingly driven by short-term contractual considerations. Therefore, PMC and CAF will jointly work on linking the follow-up project research programs to the government research priorities and disseminating project research results, so as to provide a continuous flow of new research results for further improvement of plantation quality. (e) The funds for post management of project plantations will be raised largely by the planting entities from harvesting of existing plantations and using other short-term income. SFA and provincial forestry departments have also committed to include plantations established under the project within the government commercial forestry development program and financial support will be provided, as a priority, to the thinning of the plantations established under project. (f) Central and provincial governments have committed to resolve the logging ban related issues that affect timber plantations in NFPP areas and the successful experience from the pilot will most likely extend to those plantation sites and enable improved logging measures to be adopted. For some protection forests that are located in steep areas or at high altitude, logging will not be allowed and the local governments will offer compensation to those planting entities and provide forest management fee for maintenance operations, as well as likely undertake repayment. It is suggested that the Bank should support Government to carry out a policy study that will appropriately address key issues caused by - 11 -  the logging ban and ensure sustainable forest management. Logging ban and related subsequent policies will be monitored by the Bank and project agencies in the future. The growth rate and timely thinning of the project plantations are also two key aspects to be monitored during the post project management period. 7. Bank and Borrower Performance Bank 7.1 Lending: The Bank's performance in the identification, preparation and appraisal of the project is rated satisfactory. The project objectives were consistent with the Government's development strategy for increasing timber production, in a sustainable way, to address the issues of inadequate forest products supply and improve the ecological environment. The Project also reflects CAS priorities of environmental improvement, technology transfer and institutional capacity building. The Bank team appropriately appraised the capacity of implementing agencies, government commitment, technical and economic analysis for the project preparation. Adapting experience from the previous projects, the project widened the project scope by including multiple-use protection forestry and nature reserves management components to take the opportunity to broaden the introduction of new technology and management experience in those aspects. 7.2 Supervision: Bank supervision was timely, and included a skill mix and continuity of staff and consultants. Supervision teams recognized project constraints and issues and dealt with them effectively. During implementation, the project management system ensured that plantation establishment, research and extension, procurement, financial management and reporting supporting systems operated smoothly. This permitted Bank supervision to focus consistently on technology transfer, appropriate staff training, development of models for multiple-use protection forest. Supervision missions also paid particular attention to environmental protection measures that were taken to enhance soil and water conservation, maintain biodiversity and implement pest and disease prevention and control. 7.3 Overall Bank performance: Overall, the Bank's performance is rated satisfactory due to the quality in preparation, and the flexible and effective supervision provided. Borrower 7.4 Preparation: Borrower's performance for the project preparatory work is rated satisfactory. At the preparation and appraisal stage, the Ministry of Finance and SFA effectively secured financial and political commitment from the project provincial governments. PMC and the provincial PMOs delivered satisfactory technical preparation documents that appropriately incorporated the recommendations of the Bank missions. Details were discussed in a straightforward and professional manner and senior managers paid full attention to the preparation related difficulties and issues and resolved them clearly and promptly. 7.5 Government implementation performance: Government commitment and support for the project were consistent throughout project implementation. The government was able to continue to adhere to sound programs of macroeconomic management and forest resource development and protection, and provided necessary counterpart funds. The cooperation - 12 -  between the Government and the Bank remained firm throughout the implementation period and resulted in a positive impact on project performance. 7.6 Implementing Agency: The performance of the staff at PMC, provincial, prefecture (municipal) and county PMOs, and township forestry stations was satisfactory during project implementation. They played constructive roles for project implementation and monitoring, and maintained good working relations with financial, planning and other related agencies. There were early problems affecting timely reimbursement due to lack of the coordination between the PMOs and financial departments, but this situation was improved in the second year of the project implementation. During implementation, the project agencies and entities complied satisfactorily with the legal covenants in Credit Agreements and the quality of physical implementation was consistently rated as satisfactory. PMC, provincial and county PMOs also assisted adequately the World Bank supervision mission and provided reports and necessary information on a timely basis. 7.7 Overall Borrower performance: In view of the above, the overall Borrower's performance is rated satisfactory. 8. Lessons Learned Lessons learned from the project design and implementation are summarized as follows: (a) Close correlation with the borrower's priorities is the foundation of the project. This project was initiated by the government and is thus highly consistent with the government development priorities. Therefore, it is continued to enjoy strong support from the government throughout implementation, which has enabled the Bank's goals of environment improvement, technology transfer and institutional capacity building to be reached. (b) The Strong linkage of research and extension with planting activities was critical to technology transfer. Project R&E has been closely linked with plantation activities and provided innovative and scientific basis for plantation establishment and management which has accelerated the dissemination of new technologies and created broad impacts throughout China. However, the project did not address the broader requirements of future research. The project could have leveraged the component impact more effectively by promoting the integration of sustainable breeding and selection programs in the research agendas of partner forestry institutions. (c) Centralized procurement of fertilizers and pesticides is not appropriate for multi-province forestry projects, where the project participants are widely dispersed As the project areas located in about 300 counties, 17 provinces and municipalities, contract packaging and centralized procurement approach led to prolonged delay in fertilizer delivery to planting entities and farmers, which meant that fertilizers were not available for the planting season and caused huge logistical problems. In such circumstances. freater autonomv in Drocurement must to be eiven to individual local Droiect aeencies. (d) Further study will be necessary to assess market condition and new policies such as logging ban related issues. Despite China's rapid liberalization, decision-making and planning in the forestry sector still do not fully reflect the market principles. China's entry into the World Trade Organization will also greatly affect forest product markets. In particular, new policies, such as logging ban, have broad impacts on plantation management and planter's benefits. Therefore, the policy studies for - 13 -  tackling the related issues are needed. (e) Watershed management will be more effectively carried out as integrated land management approach with treatments not only for forest zones, but also for agriculture lands and necessary conservation engineering work in the watersheds areas. This project has achieved it's development target for establishment of multiple-use protection forests which will create substantial environmental and economic benefits for watershed management. However, the overall functions of minimizing soil erosion and water runoff for the catchments would be increased in sustainable way by also including appropriate treatments for agriculture lands and necessary conservation engineering work in the catchments. 69 Bank projects have raised awareness of the potential of production forestry. Both NAP and FRDPP have retained a simple design and a strong focus on commercial forests. This has contributed to their successful implementation, and to greater awareness of the potential for production forestry and its impact on economic development, while at the same time acting as a social tool for poverty alleviation and environrnental improvement. This message could certainly be replicated in a number of other sites, in China and abroad. 9. Partner Comments (a) Borrower/implementing agency: Comments From PMC, SFA Thanks to the constructive cooperation between World Bank officials and the Chinese colleagues, the implementation of FRDPP achieved the expected targets and is thus satisfactory. We regard that the ICR of the World Bank objectively reflected the condition of the project. Since the final financial accounting of the project has not been made, the financial data contained in the report is only used for rough evaluations. The precise financial analysis of the project shall be made after the final accounting. (b) Cofinanciers: N/A (c) Other partners (NGOs/private sector): N/A 10. Additional Information N/A - 14 -  Annex 1. Key Performance Indicators/Log Frame Matrix Outcome/Impact Indicators: Indicators Projected in SAR Actual/Latest Estimate ActuaVSAR A. Total Plantation Area (ha) 900,000 1,031,353 114.6% Protection Forest Program 280,000 282,218 100.8% Mourning Cypress 15,000 5,823 38.8% Mixed Conifer/Broadleaf 16,800 21,601 128.6% Masson Pine 32,000 28,557 89.2% Chinese Fir 25,000 28,169 112.7% Sawtooth Oak 22,000 16,237 73.8% Chestnut 29,000 23,159 79.9% Pear 4,500 21,690 482.0% Eucommia 1/ 8,700 9,958 114.5% Chinese Sumac 7,000 932 13.3% Hill Closure-Replanting 40,000 39,100 97.8% Hill Closure-No Replanting 80,000 86,992 108.7% Average Mortality Rate (%) 11% Average Acceptance Rate (%) 89% Plantation Program 620,000 749,135 120.8% Chinese Fir 109,200 125,024 114.5% Mason Pine 121,200 75,557 62.3% Slash Pine 30,200 38,394 127.1% Loblolly Pine 33,300 27,536 82.7% Larch 140,500 169,112 120.4% Poplar 47,800 62,837 131.5% Populus Simonii 19,000 64,807 341.1% Eucalyptus 38,500 25,755 66.9% Black Locust 13,000 16,643 128.0% Sichima Superba 2/ 23,600 37,330 158.2% Bamboo-New 11,000 26,229 238.4% Bamboo-Rehabilitation 30,700 64,829 211.2% Arundinaria 2,000 2,006 100.3% Other Conifer Tree 13076 Average Mortality Rate (%) 5% Average Acceptance Rate (%) 95% B. Research and Extension Program Number of new clones adopted (No.) Not specific 199 Number of new technologies adopted (No.) 41 56 136.6% Pilot Plantation Establishment (ha) 140 350 250.0% C. Capacity Building Overseas Study Tours (person.times) 105 156 148.6% Overseas Training ( person.month) 60 39 65.0% Local Training (person.times) 41600 150366 361.5% International Consultants (person.day) 225 60 26.7% Local Consultants (person.day) 240 1412 588.3% I/ Including plantation of 618ha of Gingko and Mulberry trees. 2/ Actual plantation includes other broadleaf trees. - 15 -  Output Indicators: Indicators Projected in SAR ActualLatest Estimate ActuaYSAR A. Total Incremental Output ('000 n3) 1/ 114,378 109,072 95.4% Mourning Cypress 2,188 713 32.6% Mixed Conifer/Broadleaf 2,847 1,654 58.1% Masson Pine - MPF 6,191 4,909 79.3% Chinese Fir - MPF 5,245 4,740 90.4% Sawtooth Oak 3,311 2,191 66.2% Eucommia Wood 48 66 137.5% Chinese Sumac 591 112 19.0%/0 Hill Closure-Replanting 5,011 388 7.7% Hill Closure-No Replanting 6,380 434 6.8% Chinese Fir 21,221 19,680 92.7% Mason Pine 18,008 12,293 68.3% Slash Pine 5,193 7,640 147.1% Loblolly Pine 6,593 3,105 47.1% Larch 17,013 25,128 147.7% Poplar 5,961 6,490 108.9% Populus Simonii 1,780 9,941 558.5% Eucalyptus 2,965 2,497 84.2% Black Locust 884 1,865 211.0% Other Broadleaf Tree 2/ 2,948 3,501 118.8% Other Conifer Tree Not specific 1,725 - B. Total Incremental Other Output ('000 ton) 18,530 31,481 169.9% Chestnut 1,032 593 57.5% Pear 512 2,004 391.4% Eucommia 3/ 31 77 248.4% Bamboo 4,885 10,587 216.7% Bamboo Shoots 605 1,471 243.1% Arundinaria 438 491 112.1% Arundinaria Shoots 13 12 92.3% Resin 262 283 108.0% Fuelwood 10,752 15,963 148.5% C. Planting Material Program (million piece) Bare-Root Seedlings Production 1,701 2,189 128.7% Seedlings Production - Clonal 84 135 160.7% Seedlings Production - Root Trainers 60 34 56.7% Seedlings Production - Poly-Bags 294 310 105.4% Seedlings Production - Bare Root (%) 81 86 106.2% Seedlings Production - Clonal (%) 5 8 160.0% Seedlings Production - Root Trainers (%) Not specific I Seedlings Production - Poly-Bags (%) 14 12 85.7% D. Research and Technology Transfer Number of species studies for improved cultivation Not specific 12 Number of superior provenances identified 17 35 205.9% Number of families selected 535 630 117.8% Number of clones/individuals selected 86 249 289.5% Number of cross breeding combinations selected 160 444 277.5% New/improved seed/cutting production areas (ha) 404 484 119.8% Number of publications, papers and books Not specific 201 - I/ Including estimated live wood volume and value. 2/ Actual plantation includes other broadleaf trees. 3/ Including ginkgo and mulberry trees. -16 -  Annex 2. Project Costs and Financing oect Cost by Component (in US$ million equivalent) Appraisal Actual/Latest Percentage of Estimate Estimate Appraisal Project Cost By Component US$ million US$ million Plantation 238.93 242.25 101.4 Protection Forests 44.68 41.32 92.5 Planting Material and Nursery Management 41.00 52.44 127.9 Research and Technology Transfer 1/ 4.41 1.82 41.3 Capacity Building 2/ 4.31 1.12 26 Total Baseline Cost 333.33 338.95 Total Project Costs 333.33 338.95 Total Financing Required 333.33 338.95 1. Including the additional inputs provided by the provincial and county governments from outside of the project budget, total cost used for the Reserach and Technology Transfer activities was about US$4.22 million, about 95.6% of the appraisal estimates. 2. Using the resources outside of the project, additional US$2.4 million has been provided by the provincial and county governments for local training. As a result, about US$3.62 million has been used for the Institutional Capacity Building Component, accounting for 84% of the appraisal estimates. 3. Total project costs do not include the cost for activities supported by GEF. - 17 -  Proiect Costs by Procurement Arrangements (US$ million equivalent) ' Catego___y Appraisal Estimate Category ICB NCB Other' NBF3 Total Aforestation Establishment 272.3 272.3 (149.8) (149.8 Seeds 0.6 0.6 (0.6) (0.6) Fertilizer 24.8 2.3 1.9 29.0 (24.8) (2.3) 0.0 (27.1 Pesticides 1.7 1.7 (1.7) (1.7) Vehicles and Other Equipment 9.7 1.2 10.9 (9.7) (1.2) (10.9 Office and Nursery Equipment 1.2 0.4 I. 2.7 (1.2) (0.4) (1.1) (2.7 Indirect Costs 4 8.5 3.4 11.9 (4.7) 0.0 (4.7) Research Services 0.5 1.0 1.5 (0.5) 0.0 (0.5 Training and tech. Assistance 2.0 0.7 2.7 (2.0) 0.0 (2.0) Total5 37.4 3.9 285.1 7.0 333.3 (37.4) (3.9) (158.7) 0.0 (200.0 1. Figures in parentheses represent the amounts financed by the IDA credit, incluing contingencies. 2. Other procurement methods include direct recruitment of labor, force account, local and international shopping, and direct purchase. 3. NBF: Not Bank-financed. 4. Indirect costs include costs related to extension, supervision, and information management. 5. Procurement for GEF activities are not included. - 18-  Proiect Costs by Procurement Arranzements (US$ million equivalent) ' ActuaVLatest Estimate Category ICB NCB Other2 NBF3 Total Aforestation Establishment 298.0 298.0 _____________________________________________ _ _ _ .(179.2) (179.2) Seeds 0.2 0.2 (0.2) (0.2) Fertilizer 3.3 1.1 4.7 9.0 (3.3) (.1l) (4.3) Pesticides 0.2 0.2 0.0 Vehicles and Other Equipment . 6.9 1.4 8.3 (6.9) (1.4) (8.3 Office and Nursery Equipment 0:5 0.0 0.5 (015) (0.0) (0.5) Indirect Costs 4 20.0 20.0 0.0 Research Services 0.5 1.3 1.8 .__ __ ___ __ ___ __ ___ __ ___ __ __ _ ._ _ _(05) (05) Training and tech. Assistance 0.6 0.5 I.I (0.6) -(0.6) Total 10.7 2.5 299.3 26.6 339.0 (10.7) (2.5) (180.5) 0.0 (193I63) 1. Figures in parentheses represent the amounts financed by the IDA credit, incluing contingencies. 2. Other procurement methods include direct recruitment of labor, force account, local and international shopping, and direct purchase. 3. NBF: Not Bank-financed. 4. Indirect costs include costs related to extension, supervision, and information management. 5. Procurement for GEF activities are not included. - 19 -  Proiect Financing by Components (in US$ million equivalent) I Appraisal Estim-ate 2 IDA Government Beneficiaries Total Intensively Managed Plantation Multiple-Use Protection Forest Planting Stock Dev. and Nursery Management Research and Technology Transfer Institutional Capacity Building TOTAL PROJECT COSTS 200.0 83.3 50.0 333.3 Actual/Latest Estimate Component IDA Government Beneficiaries Total Intensively Managed Plantation 159.0 56.7 26.6 242.3 Multiple-Use Protection Forest 33.5 6.6 1.3 41.3 Planting Stock Dev. and Nursery Management 0.03 5.9 46.5 52.4 Research and Technology Transfer 0.5 1.3 0.0 1.8 Institutional Capacity Building 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.1 TOTAL PROJECT COSTS 193.6 71.0 74.4 339.0 Percentage of Appraisal 2 IDA Government Beneficiaries Total Intensively Managed Plantation Multiple-Use Protection Forest Planting Stock Dev. and Nursery Management Research and Technology Transfer Institutional Capacity Building TOTAL PROJECT COSTS 97% 85% 149% 102% 1. Total Project Costs do not include GEF activities. 2. No breakdown of financing by component was made at project appraisal. - 20 -  Annex 3. Economic Costs and Benefits Economic Analysis Financial Analysis Species Model Appaisal Latest Estunates Appraisal Latest Estimates NPV 000 NPV 000 NPV 000 NPV 000 ERR %I yuan ERR % yuan FRR % yuan FRR % yuan Multiple-Use Protecdon Forest 162 279,736.0 16.4 287,306.9 15.1 195,229.1 15.2 184,215 ICypress/Alder 9.7 -559.0 14.1 703.8 10. 1 -449.6 13.3 391.3 2 Masson PineBroad-leaf Tre 10.7 -312.0 14.5 951 i 11.2 -204.0 13.7 540.1 3Masson Pine 1171 -92.0 16.3 1,712.1 12.1 34.0 16.1 1,502. 4Chiese Fir 13.0 386.0 163 2,080.0 13.4 529.2 16.1 1,829. 5 Sawtooth Oak 9.4 -444.0 17.1 1,466.5 9.9 -354.6 16.1 1,053.3 6 Chestnut 25.6 10,900.0 17.4 3,170.9 22.6 7,4612 13.9 899.1 7Pear 23.2 8,304.0 22.51 7,516 20.8 5,8844 19.7 4,813. 8 Eucomiia 18.4 4,045.0 166. 2,206.8 18.1 3,782.0 16.2 1,884.6 9 Chinese SumacWhite Birth 27.8 7,041.0 15.3 1,006.9 25.9 5,7749 13.9 528.8 10Hills-Closure-I 10.9 -93.0 15.9 487.7 10.7 -1102 15.1 328. iI Hills-Cosuc-2 12.2 10.0 11.6 -20.4 .120 -0.7 11.5 -200 Intensvely Managed Plantation 18.0 2,132,623.0 18.9 2,615,838.5 18.1 2,152,375-1 18.2 2,069,553 I Chinese Fir (18) 18.0 7,007.0 16.0 2,119.9 182 7,077.0 15.8 1,856.0 2 Chinese Fir (16) 20. 7,464.0 18.4 5,052.7 20.7 7,745.0 18.2 4,472.5 3 Chinese Fir (I 4) 18.( 4,947.0 17.0 3,539.9 18.2 5,240.0 16.7 3,100. 4 Masson Pine (14) 17.2 2,918. 17.0 3,088.8 17.5 3,070 16.8 2,684. 5 Masson Pine (I6) 18.3 4,191.0 17.6 3,497.4 18.5 4,306.0 17.4 3,058.1 6 Slash Pine (18) 14.5 1,859.0 19.3 4,054.4 14.7 1,907.0 19.3 3,728.3 7 Slash Pine (16) 18.7 4,712.0 1951 5,135.5 18.9 4,770.0 19.4 4,670.0 8 Slash Pine(14) 18.3 3,931.0 18.5 4,353.0 18.5 4,039.0 18. 3,952.9 9 Loblouy Pine (16) 19.5 5,558.0 15.0 1,496.6 19.7 5,677.0 14.9 1,350. 1 0Japanese Larch (16) 15.8 2,379.0 16.1 2,60901 I Japanese Larch (14) 16.1 2,268.0 16.5 2,509.0 _ 12 Korean Larch (16) 154 2,040.0 16.8 3,036.2 15.8 2,264.0 16.6 2,661.6 13 Korn Lamch (14) 15.4 1,834.0 151 1,8619. 15.9 2,066.0 15.0 1,604.1 14 Chinese White Popiar (I) 24.6 9,244.0 23.5 6,599.8 24.2 8,533.0 20.7 3,808.2 1 Populus Sionii (12) 26.8 4,690.0 33.5 10,225.8 26.9 4,684.' 31.3 7,484. 16 Eucalypts (11) 28.1 3,410.0 25.7 4,791. 28.9 3,594. 24.2 3,695. 17Black Locust (18) 18.6 2,803.0 21.2 4,611.3 18.7 2,851.0 19.8 3,366.6 18 Schina Superba () 15.8 1,881.0 14.8 1,140.9 16.3 2,091.0 14.0 741.0 19 Moso Barnboo - New (T) 25.6 14,543.0 22.9 9,881.2 23.7 11,844.0 21.2 7,401. 20 Moso Bamnboo - Rehab. (11) 21.7 6,756.0 20.6 5,296.9 21.1 5,758.0 19.6 3,982.3 21 .iiniaQI) 23.3 6,184.0 17.91 2,964.0 22.0 5,309.0 14.8 1,233. 22 Other Conifer Tree 19.A j 2,767.9 19.2 3,342. Totb Project 17.7 2,412,359.0 18 2,896,279.71 17.6 2,347,604.0 17.7 2,248,034. I/Projections were made based on before tax and debt service scenario; - 21 -  2/ NPV for individual species models is in yuan; 3/ Projections for Japanese larch.models are included in Korean Larch models. - 22 -  Annex 4. Bank Inputs (a) Missions: Stage of Project Cycle No. of Persons and Specialty Performance Rating (e.g. 2 Economists, I FMS, etc.) Implementation Development Month/Year Count Specialty Progress Objective IdentificationlPreparation 03/92 9 IFS,2EC, ISNS, IECD, INFEC:, IMS, IRS, IIMS 11/92 6 2FS, 2EC, I ECD, IMS 5/93 S IEC, IFS, IECD, IFA, ISEC Appraisal/Negotiation 11/93 8 2EC, IFS, IECO, IFA, IRS, I SEC, lI BS 4/94 4 IES, ILW, IDS, IECO Supervision 9/94 3 IEC, IECD, IFS S S 8/95 4 IEC, IECD, IFS, IIDS S S 5/96 3 IEC, IECD, IFS S S 11/96 3 1 EC, I ECD, I FS S S 5/97 5 IEC, IECD, IFS, IECO, IIDS S S 5/98 3 IFS, IRS, ISNS S S 11/98 5 IFS, lEC, IDS, ISNS, ISC S S 5/99 4 IFS, IDS, ISNS,I SC S S 11/99 4 IFS, IDS, ISNS, ISC S S 4/2000 4 IFS, IDS, ISNS, ISC S S 10/2000 5 I FS, I DS, I SNS, I SC, I EC S S ICR 3/2002 S IFS, IEC, IRS, ISC, IECO S S /a: DS: Disbursement Specialist; EC: Economist; ECO: Ecologist; FA: Financial Analyst; FS: Forestry Specialist; IDS: Institutional Development Specialist; LW: Lawyer; IMS: Information Management Specialist; MS: Marketing Specialist; RS: Research Specialist: SC: Silviculturist; SNS: Seed Nursery Specialist; NFEC: Natural Resource Economist; SEC: Socio-Economist; BS: Bamboo Specialist. (b) Staff Stage of Project Cycle Actual/Latest Estimate .____________________ _ .No. Stafflweeks US$ ('000) Identification/Preparation 61.6 231.38 Appraisal/Negotiation 73.8 280.98 Supervision 137.8 324.74 ICR 20 50 Total 293.2 887.1 - 23 -  Annex 5. Ratings for Achievement of Objectives/Outputs of Components (H=High, SU=Substantial, M=Modest, N=Negligible, NA=Not Applicable) Rating