Ghana - Current economic position and prospects (Vol. 1 of 10)

RESTRICTED V'II1T ff. 'A mr A IAI-4O fiLri lltv IoXAV'V~ LUll ~~~~~~~~~VolI. 1 report w-us prepureu for use wiTnin thre DBniK ana irs aTriiiarea organizations. y do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may be pubiished nor may it be quoted as representing their views. ATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION THE CURRENT ECONOMIC POSITION AND PROSPECTS GHANA. (in ten volumes) ITrf'-T TTr11XC' T THE MAIN REPORT Oc%tobU0Jer 26, 1I 97 Y e stiern f1r-ic:a Departmient:  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS 1 New Cedi = US$0.98 1 doUlar = N$ 1.02  INVTERA'ATIONA,L BANK }'OR REC(ONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT RESTRICTED R70-222 FROM: The Secretary November 23, 1570 GHANA 1. There is attached for information a copy of a report entitled "The Current Economic Fbsition and Prospects of Ghana" (AW-18a), in ten volumes, dated October 26, 1970, as follows: Volume I - The Main Report Volume II - Annexes to the Main Report Volume III - Population, Employment and Education Volume IV - Public Finance Volume V - Agriculture Volume VI - Industry Volume VII - Transportation Volume VIII - Electric Poirzer and Telecommunications Volume IX - Project List Volume X - Summary and Conclusions 2. This report has been made available to the Consultative Group for Ghana (GHA 70-8 and GHA 70-10). Distribution: Executive Directors and Alternates *President *President's Council *Executive Vice President, IUC Vice President, IFC Department Heads, Bank and IFC *Without attachment   THE MTSSION This report is based on the findings of a mission in April and May 1970 to Ghana composed of: Mr. Barend A. de Vries Chief of Mission Mr. Fateh Chaudhri GeneraL Economist Mr. Thomas KLein Balance of Payments & External Debt Miss Katharine Mortimer Population, Employment and Education Mr. M. Taher Dajani* Fiscal Mr. Ved Gandhi Fiscal Mr. Nake Kamrany Social Sector Mr. Jivat Thadani Industry Mr. Alfredo Soto Transport Mr. Hans Schulte Transport Mr. Charles Metcalfe Agriculture fr. Bruce Johnston"> ALriculture Mr. Merrill Bateman* Cocoa Mr. HermEn Nissenbaum Project List Mr. Edward Minnig Electric Power Mr - John Weston R__c-t.ri n Power .Mr- S. Pnngamphnr Pcesearn1 Mlss Beverley Baxter Secret&y S* econsdultantd by t ens ConsonsELtants  TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. I. ECONOMIC GROWTH AND POLICY ALTERNATIVES .... .......... 1 Recent Developments ............................. 1 Past Growth Performance ......................... 3 Policy Alternatives ............................. 5 II. POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT AND EDUCATION .... ............. 9 Population and Migration ........................ 9 Internal Migration .............................. 10 Employment ...................................... 12 Policies for Reducing Unemployment .... .......... 15 Education ....................................... 18 III. PUBLIC FINANCE ....................................... 21 Budgetary Trends in the 'Sixties ................ 21 Current Position (1969/70 - 1970/71) .... ........ 22 Capital Budget ................. ................. 27 The Five-Year Budget Outlook ........ .. .......... 28 Fiscal Strategy .............. .. ................. 31 IV. AGRICULTURE .......................................... 36 Principal Problems and Issues .... ............... 36 Prospects for Export Expansion and Import Substitution ............................... 38 Evaluation of Present Government Actions and Policies ............................... 39 Financial Resources and Credit Policies for Agriculture ............................ 40 Recommendations for Policies and for Specific Commodity Action ........................... 41 New Investments and Projects .... ................ 43 V. COCOA ........... ..................................... 45 Cocoa and Ghana's Economy ....................... 45 Demand and Supply ............................... 47 Ghanaian Production and Earnings: 1970-85 ....... 49 Finances of the Cocoa Marketing Board .... ....... 52 Conclusions and Recommendations .... ............. 53  Pagp Nno VI. TNniTSTRV AND MTNTNG .-----------------------------....... 55 Recent Growth ------ 55 Role of Imports ................. ...........6.... 56 R),.1 o .,f..h ... .. ..ol e... . . . . . . . . . 57 Government-Owned Industries ..... ................ 59 Development Institutions .. ..................... 61 Employment and Growth Prospects ......... ...... 63 Mining. 64 Proposed Further Studies ..............66 .......... 66 VII. THE TRANSPORT SECTOR ......... ..................... 67 A. General .................................... 67 B. . Transport P.Ulanning arA. Policies ....tJ. ......... 68Q C. The Highway Sector ................... 71 tn rtn Dai 1ry .. . . ..................... 711 E. Forts ...a . . . ................ ......... 5 . J E. Ports 1 A.. , --75 F. vl . .........L. . ... . 76 G. Ghana Airways ................... 77 u 1 ) _. !X_Tx_ 70 I. flI......1.. t.-ar L k t ............................. 79 It. DJ.~Lack ~L. 1A.LL ..1 I. Lake Transport ............................... 79 J.