China - Agenda for water sector strategy for North China : summary report (Vol. 2 of 4) : Main report

Report No. 22040-CHA CHINA AGENDA FOR WATER SECTOR STRATEGY FOR NORTH CHINA VOLUME 2: MAIN REPORT April 2, 2001 Project Sponsors: Ministry of Water Resources P.R.C., the World Bank and AusAID. Joint Report prepared by the World Bank, Sinclair Knight Merz and Egis Consulting Australia, the General Institute for Water Resources Planning (MWR), the Institute of Water and Hydropower Research ( Beijing), the Institute of Water and Hydrology Research, (Nanjing), and the Chinese Research Academy for Environmental Sciences (Beijing).  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (As of January 1, 2001) Currency Unit = Yuan (Y) US$1.00 = Y 8.3 Y 1.00 = US$0.12 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric System Vice President : Jemal-ud-din Kassum, EAPVP Sector Director : Mark D. Wilson, EASRD Country Director : Yukon Huang, EACCF Task Manager : Daniel Gunaratnam, EACCF  CONTENTS Acronyms and Abbreviations Used...................................................................................................viii 1. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................1 A. General..............................................................................................................................1 B. Objectives and Scope of the Action Plan..............................................................................1 C. Work Program...................................................................................................................2 D. Methodology and Structure of Report..................................................................................2 E. Why Focus on the 3-H Basins?............................................................................................1 2. CHANGING ECONOMY AND SOCIETY AFFECTING THE WATER SECTOR ..................5 A. The Changing Economy......................................................................................................5 B. Social Trends Affecting Water Resources............................................................................8 C. The Changing Economy....................................................................................................12 D. Social Trends Affecting Water Resources, Future...............................................................17 3. WATER RESOURCES AND ISSUES......................................................................................19 A. Introduction .....................................................................................................................19 B. Water Shortages, Droughts and Water Conflicts.................................................................19 C. Floods and Flood Control in China ....................................................................................33 D. Water for Agriculture .......................................................................................................37 E. Water Pollution................................................................................................................47 F. Depleted Groundwater Resources......................................................................................57 G. Present Situation of Water Sector Management..................................................................64 H. Private Sector Participation in Infrastructure......................................................................69 4. SUFFICIENT WATER FOR ALL ...........................................................................................74 A. Introduction .....................................................................................................................74 B. Water Demand Projections................................................................................................75 C. Water Supply Projections..................................................................................................91 D. Water Balances in the Future .......................................................................................... 101 E. Coastal Zone Impacts ..................................................................................................... 108 F. Economic Value of Water............................................................................................... 110 G. Economic Value of Water Shortages............................................................................... 112 H. Action Plan for Balancing Supply and Demand................................................................ 115 5. FLOODS AND FLOOD DAMAGE........................................................................................125 A. Summary of Current Strategy.......................................................................................... 125 B. Level of Protection (Flood Standard) ............................................................................... 126 C. Developing Appropriate Standards for Flood Protection.................................................... 129 D. Development of a Methodology...................................................................................... 133 E. Action Plan for Flood Control.......................................................................................... 136 6. SUFFICIENT FOOD FOR ALL.............................................................................................142 A. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 142 B. Implications of Less Water and Land............................................................................... 143  - ii - C. Implications of WTO Accession...................................................................................... 147 D. Implications for Food Security ........................................................................................ 153 E. Irrigation with Improved Institutional, Technological Water-Saving and Water Price Measures ............................................................................................................... 154 F. Action Plan.................................................................................................................... 170 7. CLEAN WATER FOR ALL...................................................................................................179 A. Water Pollution Control in 3-H Basins and Problems with Current Approach..................... 179 B. The Need for Modeling with a Knowledge-Based System................................................. 182 C. Prioritizing cities............................................................................................................ 185 D. Projected Load Generations Under the "Business as Usual" Scenario ................................ 185 C. Options to Further Reduce Pollution Loads ...................................................................... 187 D. Coastal Zone Water Quality............................................................................................ 196 E. Cost of Government Program and Action Plan.................................................................. 199 8. WASTEWATER REUSE.......................................................................................................209 A. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 209 B. The Situation in China and the 3-H Basins ....................................................................... 210 C. Potential Wastewater Reuse Applications......................................................................... 213 D. Planning Water Reclamation Project............................................................................... 221 E. Industrial Wastewater Control Program from the WWTP Operator Perspective .................. 221 F. Industrial Waste Data Management System...................................................................... 225 9. GROUNDWATER.................................................................................................................226 A. Options to Improve Groundwater Resources and Management.......................................... 226 B. Action Plan for Improved Groundwater Management....................................................... 226 C. Action Plan for Wastewater Reclamation ......................................................................... 236 D. Action Plan for Groundwater Improvement...................................................................... 243 10. INSTITUTIONAL MANAGEMENT.....................................................................................246 A. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 246 B. Water Resource Management in China ............................................................................ 247 C. Allocation and Efficiency................................................................................................ 250 D. Demand Management: Financing and Price Incentives ..................................................... 260 E. Organizational Issues and Service Delivery...................................................................... 266 F. Recommendations........................................................................................................... 270 11. PROPOSED ACTION PLANS...............................................................................................273 A. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 273 B. Action Plan for Water Resources..................................................................................... 275 C. Action Plan for Flood Control......................................................................................... 279 D. Action Plan for Agriculture............................................................................................. 286 E. Action Plan for Pollution Control..................................................................................... 292 F. Action Plan for Wastewater Reuse................................................................................... 303 G. Action Plan for Groundwater Management...................................................................... 305 H. Action Plan for Institutional Management........................................................................ 308 TABLES Table 1.1: Volume of Water/Capita for Different Countries...................................................................2 Table 1.2: 1994-98 Mean Values of Runoff, Groundwater, Outflows to the Sea and Beneficial and Nonbeneficial Uses of Water in the 3-H Basins ........................................................................2  - iii - Table 1.3: Percentage of River Lengths over Class IV and V.................................................................3 Table 2.1: Urban and Rural Domestic Daily per Capita Water Consumption in the 3-H Basins and China (lcd) Compared with Urbanization (%).....................................................................8 Table 2.2: Forecasted Total, Rural and Urban GDP Growth Rates for the 3-H Basins............................14 Table 2.3: Forecasted Industrial GDP Growth Rates for the 3-H Basins................................................14 Table 2.4: China's Economic Structure in 2050..................................................................................15 Table 2.5: Water Demand for the 3-H Basins for 2000-50 for Different Scenarios.................................17 Table 2.6: Forecasted Total, Rural and Urban Population....................................................................18 Table 3.1: Beneficial and Nonbeneficial Uses.....................................................................................21 Table 3.2: Utilization of Surface Water in China, 1998........................................................................21 Table 3.3: Utilization of Groundwater in the 3-H Basins .....................................................................22 Table 3.4: Withdrawals, Consumptive Use, and Return Flows.............................................................24 Table 3.5: Current (2000) Shortages under Different Runoff Probabilities............................................25 Table 3.6: 2000 Irrigation Demand and Supply Under P75 Runoff.......................................................26 Table 3.7: Grain Production for Different Runoff Probabilities, 2000...................................................27 Table 3.8: Water Supplies to Sectors, 2000, by Runoff Probability.......................................................27 Table 3.9: Economic Value of the 2000 Solutions ...............................................................................28 Table 3.10: Average Economic Value of Water in the 2000 Solutions ..................................................29 Table 3.11: Marginal Values of Water from 2000 Solutions.................................................................30 Table 3.12: Flood Damage Losses in the Main Provinces of 3-H Basins...............................................34 Table 3.13: Most Flood-Affected Provinces .......................................................................................37 Table 3.14: Grain Production Increases and Production Growth Rates, 1979-98....................................38 Table 3.15: Output of Major Crops in the 3-H Basins as Percentage of China's Output .........................38 Table 3.16:The Characteristics of Precipitation for Three Irrigation Zones in China .............................39 Table 3.17: Normalized, Actual, and Potential Production, 3