Madagascar - Education Sector Reinforcement Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: 18904 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT REPUBLIC OF MADAGASCAR EDUCATION SECTOR REINFORCEMENT PROJECT CREDIT 2094-MAG February 8, 1999 Human Development IV Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency unit: Malagasy Franc (FMG) (Period average) 1989: US$1.00 = FMG 1603 1994: US$1.00 = FMG 3067 1990: US$1.00 = FMG 1494 1995: US$1.00 = FMG 4266 1991: US$1.00 =FMG 1835 1996: US$1.00 =FMG4061 1992: US$1.00 = FMG 1864 1997: US$1.00 = FMG 5091 1993: US$1.00 = FMG 1914 1998: US$1.00 = FMG 5000 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric system FISCAL YEAR January I - December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AfDB African Development Bank BPE Project Implementation Unit (Bureau du Projet Education) CCAP Committee to Coordinate Pedagogical Activities (Comite de Coordination des Activites Pedagogiques) CCPE Education Project Coordinating Committee (Comit6 de Coordination du Projet Education) CDAP Cell for the Distribution of Teaching Materials (Cellule de Distribution des Auxiliaires Pedagogiques) CiSco District Office (Circonscription Scolaire) CPIE Inter-school Education Committee (Comite Pedagogique Interscolaire) CRESED Education Sector Reinforcement Credit (Credit pour le Renforcemnent du Secteur de 1'Education) DCA Development Credit Agreement DIRESEB Provincial Directorate of Education DPE Department of Planning of Education (Departement de la Planification de l'Enseignement) ENI Teacher training college for primary teachers (Ecole Normale d'Enseignants du Primaire) EN2 Teacher training college for lower secondary teachers (Ecole Nonnale d' Enseignants du Premier Cycle du Secondaire) EN3 Teacher training college for upper secondary teachers (Ecole Nonnale d'Enseignants du Deuxieme Cycle du Secondaire) GDP Gross Domestic Product IDA Intemnational Development Association IST Higher Institute of Technology (Institut Superieur de Technologie) Level I Primary level (Enseignement Primaire) Level II Lower secondary level (Enseignement Secondaire du Premier Cycle) Level III Upper secondary level (Enseignement Secondaire du Deuxieme Cycle) Level IV Higher education and university level (Enseignement Superieur et Universitaire) METFP Ministry of Technical Education and Vocational Training (Ministere de l'Enseignement Technique et de la Fonmation Professionnelle) MINESEB Ministry of Basic and Secondary Education (Ministere de l'Enseignement Secondaire et de l'Education de Base) MINESUP Ministry of Higher Education (Ministere de l'Enseignement Superieur) OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries OPPS Service des Oeuvres Peri- et Para-Scolaires PEP, PIP Public Expenditure (Investment) Program PNAE National program for the improvement of education (Programme National d 'Amelioration de I 'Enseignement) PRAGAP Programme de Renforcement et d'Amelioration de la Gestion Ad ministrative et Pedagogique PSAC Public Sector Adjustment Credit SAR Staff Appraisal Report SN National Service (Service National) UERP Pedagogical Unit (Unite d'Etude et de Recherche Pedagogiques) UNDP United Nations Development Program Vice-President: Mr. Callisto Madavo Country Director: Mr. Michael Sarris Sector Manager: Mr. Arvil Van Adams Task Manager: Mr. Daniel Viens  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT REPUBLIC OF MADAGASCAR EDUCATION SECTOR REINFORCEMENT PROJECT (CREDIT 2094-MAG) TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE EVALUATION SUMMARY Introduction. i Project Objectives. i Implementation Experience and Results. iii Summary and Key Lessons Learned. v 1. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT 1 Project Objectives 1 Achievement ofProject Objectives 2 Implementation Record and Major Factors Affecting The project 4 Project Sustainability 6 BankPerformance 7 Borrower Performance 7 Assessment of Outcome 9 Future Operation 10 Key Lessons Learned 12 2. STATISTICAL ANNEX 14 Table 1 : Summary of Assessments 15 Table 2: Related Bank Loans and IDA Credits 17 Table 3: Project Timetable 18 Table 4: Credit Disbursements: Cumulative Estimated and Actual 18 Table 5 : Key Indicators for Project Implementation 19 Table 6: Key indicatorsfor Project Operation 22 Table 7: Evolution of Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Education (1987-1997) 28 Table 8: Studies Included in Project 30 Table 9A: Project Costs 31 Table 9B: Project Financing 31 Table 10 : Economic Costs and Benefits 32 Table 11: Status ofLegal Covenants in the CreditAgreement 33 Table 12: Compliance with Operational Manual Statements 40 Table 13: Bank Resources: StaffInputs 40 Table 14: BankResources: Missions. 41 Annex A: Aide-memoire de la mission du secteur de I 'education de la Banque mondiale Annex B: Borrower Assessment of Project Implementation Annex C: Map IBRD No. 29353 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT REPUBLIC OF MADAGASCAR EDUCATION SECTOR REINFORCEMENT PROJECT (CREDIT 2094-MAG) PREFACE This is the Implementation Completion Report (tCR) for the Education Sector Reinforcement Project in Madagascar, for which a Credit (2094-MAG) in the amount of SDR30.4 million (US$39.0 million equivalent) was approved on February 13, 1990, signed on April 4, 1990, and made effective on July 24, 1990. The Credit aimed at assisting the Government to begin a major reform of the education sector through policy measures and quality improvement. The Credit was closed on June 30, 1998, two years behind schedule. An amount of SDR500,000 (US$685,500 equivalent) was canceled on July 24, 1997. The last disbursement took place on August 25, 1998. In addition to the government counterpart contribution of about 5 percent of total costs excluding taxes, the project was to be cofinanced by the OPEC Fund, the Federal Republic of Germany and UNDP. The ICR was prepared by Paul Geli (consultant). It was reviewed by Daniel Viens (Task Manager for the project - AFTH4) and Mr. Arvil Van Adams (Sector Manager, AFTH4). Preparation of this ICR was started during the Bank's final supervision/completion mission in June 1998. It is based on materials in the project file, and on the interviews of people who have been associated with the project during implementation. The Borrower contributed to the preparation of the ICR by providing views reflected in the mission's aide-memoire (appendix A), by preparing its own evaluation of the project's execution (appendix B) and by commenting on the draft ICR.  IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT REPUBLIC OF MADAGASCAR EDUCATION SECTOR REINFORCEMENT PROJECT (CREDIT 2094-MAG) EVALUATION SUMMARY Introduction. 1. Following economic stabilization in the mid- 1980s, the Government carried out a series of adjustment programs. The educational system of Madagascar was clearly in disarray. With IDA support, the Government adopted a strategy for development of the education sector as a whole, with a view to improve the quality and efficiency of education at all levels, with special emphasis on basic education. The strategy included measures to contain costs, to use resources more efficiently, to redistribute the education budget within the sector to reflect the priority given to basic education, to improve the cost/efficiency of higher education, and to make technical/vocational training more relevant to the needs of the economy. An action plan based on the education strategy was prepared. It was to be implemented over 10 to 15 years. The Education Sector Reinforcement Project (Credit pour le Renforcement du Secteur de I'Education - CRESED) was to finance actions to be started in the first three years of the program, assisting the Government in establishing- the required administrative and physical structures, training specialists and trainers, and preparing new teaching programs. The project was to be implemented in two phases, with items included in the second phase starting only after a joint midterm review of progress on the strategy and the project. Furthermore, it was expected that future financing by IDA and other donors would support subsequent stages of the program. The project was also designed to help the Government to further develop its sector strategy and the investment program based on that strategy. Project Objectives. 2. The objectives of the project were to improve the quality and the internal and external efficiencies of the education system. The President's Report and Staff Appraisal Report (SAR) made it clear that this was a first credit to help the Government start its education development program, which would be implemented over 10 to 15 years. The project was to commence a major sector reform, which included inter alia: (i) control of recurrent costs at all levels to free resources for quality improvement and increased primary enrollment; (ii) a rolling three-year sector Public Expenditure Program (PEP) to  Evaluation Summary Page ii be reviewed annually, reflecting increased spending on primary education and on quality at all levels; and (iii) a progressive reorientation to employment needs of vocational education and training. The project objectives were not modified during project implementation. 3. To help achieve the above objectives, a number of policy measures were to be carried out in conjunction with the project. The project itself consisted of three components: (a) Improving the sector administration, management and planning, by purchasing computer and office equipment, by conducting studies and training, by reorganizing planning and statistics services and by establishing project coordination; (b) Improving the quality of basic and general secondary education, by setting up a pedagogical unit (Unit d'Etude et Recherche Pedagogique s - UERP), by increasing the role of inspectors, education advisers and headmasters, as well as pre-service and in- service training for teachers, by providing textbooks and teachers' guides, and by upgrading secondary school laboratories; and (c) Strengthening higher level education, by establishing two short-cycle higher institutes of technology and by developing plans to modernize university curricula and to improve university administration and the cost/financing balance at university level. 4. The Education Sector Reinforcement Project was to be implemented by both the Ministry of Basic and Secondary Education (MINESEB) and the Ministry of Higher Education (MINESUP). To coordinate, support and monitor implementation of the long- term program and project, the Education Project Coordinaling Committee (CCPE), the Committee to Coordinate Pedagogical Activities (CCAP), and a Project Implementation Unit (BPE), were established under the two education ministers. The total project cost estimate was US$55.0 million equivalent; the project was expected to be completed by December 31, 1995 and the credit closed on June 30, 1996. 5. In addition to the standard clauses for counterpart funds, procurement and audit, a number of covenants in the Development Credit Agreement (DCA) and five supplemental letters to the DCA were expected to promote the achievement of project objectives. Those covenants and letters dealt with project management, and improvement in the quality of education through an increase in resources allocated to teacher training, support services and teaching materials. T'hey also included three-year rolling public expenditure programs dealing with increases and reallocation of expenditures; improved education planning, budgeting and administration; improvement of education sector personnel management by employment and redeployment of staff, control of student flows and school enrollments, attendance and repetition rates; preparation of school books and cost recovery; training; school building maintenance and rehabilitation; integration of nutritional, environmental and population concerns into public education; university reforms and improvement in the quality of higher education; and reorganization of vocational and technical training. 6. The project's objectives were clear. They were ambitious and very important for Madagascar and the education sector, as well as for the Bank's country assistance strategy. The project was responsive to changes in Madagascar circumstances and development priorities. The situation of the education sector had become so bad across  Evaluation Summary Page iii the board that it made sense to attempt to do something in all areas. Consequently, it was difficult, if not impossible, to set priorities, and the project looked like a Christmas tree. In effect, the project together with the accompanying policy measures was a sector development program. There is no question that the project was complex and risky and demanding for Government. Some of the quantified targets were not very realistic. Implementation Experience and Results. 7. Achievements can be assessed as "substantial" for sector policies, institutional development and physical objectives, "partial" for public sector management and private sector development, and "negligible" for financial objectives. Regarding sector policies and institutional development, policy measures were carried out in conjunction with the project to strengthen planning and management and make education administration more efficient. Unfortunately, not all the recommendations of the study on the management of MINESEB (completed in 1992) were implemented, particularly those regarding personnel management at the primary and secondary levels (hence, a rating of "partial" for public sector management). The reform of higher level education, which included the eviction of "professional students" or squatters from university campuses and a reorganization of vocational and technical training, is a substantial achievement. As for physical objectives, much has been done to rehabilitate and equip teacher training colleges, training centers and primary schools, to train personnel at all levels and in many disciplines, and to produce and distribute textbooks and teaching materials. Following a decade of decreases in absolute terms, new intakes at primary level started again to increase in 1995-1996, but with an acceleration in the rate of increase (an increase of about 10 percent in 1997-1998). More importantly, although the project was only the first phase of a long term effort to rehabilitate the education system, there is evidence that the quality of education has actually improved: dropout rates have decreased, and the proportion of students completing successfully primary and secondary education has increased. 8. On the other hand, the performance is unsatisfactory regarding financial objectives, whose achievements can only be rated as "negligible". In recent years, some progress has been made in redistribution of public expenditures from wages and social services (in higher education) to non-salary expenditures for quality inputs, but figures on the trends in GDP and budgets for the last 8 years (provided at the end of Table 6 in part II) are disappointing. Between 1990 and 1997, the budget for primary education has decreased in real terms, a decline that has continued even when enrollments at primary level started to increase in 1995/1996, and public expenditures for education over GDP have decreased (from 2.3% in 1991 to 1.4% in 1997). Faced with serious fiscal constraints and the need to balance the budget, the Government made serious efforts to reduce public expenditures across the board. During the project period, the total government budget has not increased in the same proportion as GDP but the share of education in the total budget has remained about the same at around 9 percent. The percentage of expenditures allocated to primary level has also remained about the same: about 2.7% to 2.9% of total public expenditures and, apart from some increases in 1994-  Evaluation Summary Page iv 1995, about 30% of the education budget. It seems, therefore, that the education sector as a whole was neither better nor worse off than other sectors. 9. It should be noted that, despite the drop in education expenditures in relation to GDP and in real terns, the education sector has been able to continue to operate and expand, and even experience some improvements. There are: two reasons for this. First, public education has become more efficient through redeployment and control of staff and other measures to better utilize available resources, probably as a consequence of the budget squeeze. Second, private education has continued to expand at primary, secondary and tertiary levels, and community and parent financial participation increased significantly in the context of school-based contracts. 10. After a difficult and slow start, the project came to a standstill because of the political events and civil disturbances of 1991 which basically accounts for the implementation delays of about two years. The final estimate of the cost of the project is US$61.3 million, compared to the SAR estimate of US$55.0 million including taxes, or an 11 percent increase. Because of the increase in the dollar value of the SDR, IDA disbursements in dollars were more than originally forecast (plus 10 percent), and other donors (OPEC/Germany/UNDP) contributed less than the original estimates (minus 20 percent), while Government contributed more than the original estimates (plus 43 percent). Forty-four percent of the US$61.3 million were spent for the administration and planning component, 36 percent for the quality arid efficiency improvement component, and 7 percent for the higher education component; the balance of 13 percent was for taxes. 11. A number of factors affected project implementation and the achievement of the project objectives. The factors that affected project implementation negatively were the political crisis and civil disturbances of 1991, problems and delays with civil works contractors and suppliers, a lessening of the Government commitment to reforms, some delays in the provision of counterpart funds, and cumbersome administrative procedures. On the positive side, one should note the continuity in staff oni the Bank side, as well as in the ministry for most of the implementation period. Also, both the Govemment and the Bank showed flexibility and were receptive to changes in approach (i.e., more participation at the local level) to better achieve the project objectives. The Bank- UNESCO Cooperative Programn participated actively in project preparation. All cofinanciers (OPEC/Germany/UNDP) made also a positive contribution: as an example, the GTZ team of Germany developed capacity in the pedagogical unit (UERP) for designing, testing and producing textbooks. 12. The Bank performance on this project has been highly satisfactory at the identification stage and for supervision, and satisfactory for preparation assistance and appraisal. The Borrower performance can also be rated as satisfactory for preparation, implementation and covenant compliance. 13. Sustainability. The achievements generated in relation to the project's major objectives are likely to be maintained in the future, provided that the financial constraints do not become worse. The project itself has brought about fundamental changes in the  Evaluation Summary Page v thinking of many Malagasy on the community- and school-based development approach (tested under PRAGAP between 1994-1998) that should be followed to improve the quality and the efficiency of the education system. Those changes are also reflected in the new sector policies that have been adopted and which are unlikely to be reversed. The substantial achievements in terms of institutional development and physical objectives should last because the Government and the Bank have tried to design activities that are both reasonable and affordable, so that they could be taken up under the Government budget once project financing ends. Also, the more participatory approach at the local level promoted under PRAGAP means that many new stakeholders will want to ensure that project assets are properly operated and maintained and that the new sector policies are not abandoned. Finally, successful activities under this project will be continued under the Education Sector Development Project (Cr. 3046-MAG) approved in 1998. The October 1998 Public Expenditure Review concluded the need to further decentralize decision-making at the school level, while allocating increased resources to hire teachers (under contract) and provide basic teaching-learning materials. 14. Outcome. Regarding the outcome of the project, major reforms have been undertaken in higher education and the "assainissement" of universities has been remarkable. The performance on public funding has been disappointing but education has not been treated worse than other sectors. The targets for increases in enrollment and internal efficiency have not been achieved, but recent trends present a more encouraging picture, at least with respect to enrollments and graduation rates. There is also evidence that the quality of education has already begun to improve. In retrospect, some of the targets were ambitious in the sense that they were difficult to reach within the project period. It is clear that it takes time for the favorable impact of the project activities to be felt at the level of the schools and the students. The principal merit of the project has been to halt the disastrous degradation of the educational system, and even to reverse the trends in certain areas. On balance, the proceeds of IDA Credit 2094-MAG have been well spent and served useful purposes. The outcome of the project is satisfactory overall. Summary and Key Lessons Learned. 15. Based on a correct and lucid assessment of the problems and constraints facing the education sector, the project aimed at improving the quality and efficiency of the education system. It was ambitious and risky. Much has been done for the training of teachers and the provision of textbooks, teaching materials, and support services, as well as for education planning, budgeting and administration. A number of important policy measures and reforms have also been carried out in conjunction with the project. Implementation experience has shown the importance of flexibility in approach to facilitate the achievement of project objectives. Although all the targets have not been reached, the project has been a success, and the project achievements are likely to be maintained in the future. Some of the actions undertaken under this project, particularly school-based projects developed with local communities, will be continued and expanded under the Education Sector Development Project (CR. 3046-MAG) approved in 1998. In summary, increased participation, community involvement, devolution of responsibility  Evaluation Summary Page vi to lower levels, and "ownership" of school-based contracts represent an overwhelming achievement of CRESED. 16. The following lessons can be learned from the implementation of this Education Sector Reinforcement Project: * Participatory approaches at all levels have proved effective instruments for project planning and implementation, as well as instruments of learning from experience. Development of social capital at national and local levels, formation of tearns, continuity and cross-fertilization between regions and localities are additional benefits which accrue from the participatory approaches adopted. * The policy of centrally-managed redeployment of staff adopted in the early 1990s has not proved successful. However, redeployment at local level (within school districts) has shown itself to be a satisfactory policy option (for example, under the PRAGAP more than 1,000 teachers have been transferred to rural primary schools). There is also a need for a diversity of specific initiatives to address the problems of the misdistribution and underemployment of teaching and other staff. * There is a need for a gradualist (planned and phased) approach to the devolution of responsibility and resources to the local level, accompanied by appropriate capacity building measures (e.g. pre-contract workshops, dialogue with communities representatives and school teachers, training for acceptance of financial responsibility, managing financial resources). Experience gained under PRAGAP shows that management capacity has to be developed first at regional level (DIRESEB, or Provincial Directorate of Education) before it can be delegated to district level (CiSco, or District Office for Education). In the 20 pilot districts where PRAGAP has been implemented since 1993, it is now clear that the day-to-day management of the community-based development process has to be delegated to the sub-district level (ZAP, or Local Administrative Zone which groups an average of 10 primary schools), supported by appropriate technical specialists from the District Office. * On-the-job training, tailored to the specific needs of the trainees, should be the main vehicle for developing skills and assisting local authorities. * Local communities, when given the initiative and modest resources, can effectively identify their own priorities, deliver a sustainable quality primary education, and increase their participation in the development process. The project has demonstrated the effectiveness and sustainability of local community- based development operations at primary level. Beneficiary assessments carried out under the project indicate that communities are willing to incur the necessary costs to send their children to school and to participate in school rehabilitation. A number of communities overshot the objectives of their school-based contracts by constructing additional classrooms to accommodate increases in enrollments.  Evaluation Summary Page vii * Financial and budgetary constraints may have some favorable consequences, in that they may force public sector institutions to become more efficient and to better utilize available resources while also encouraging the development and participation of the private sector. * Since Government resources will be insufficient to cover all the financial requirements at secondary and higher education levels, there is a need to diversify participation in the financing and provision of education at these levels and to increase beneficiary contributions, particularly in higher education where benefits are captured mainly by beneficiaries.  PART 1: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT  IMPLENENTATION COMPLETION REPORT REPUBLIC OF MADAGASCAR EDUCATION SECTOR REINFORCEMENT PROJECT (CREDIT 2094-MAG) 1. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT Project Objectives 1.1 At the time the project was prepared and appraised, the educational system of Madagascar was in disarray. In early 1980, Madagascar had achieved near universal primary school enrollment due to a rapid increase in enrollments in the 1970s. But in the 1980s the educational system deteriorated drastically and enrollments decreased significantly. The implementation of new curricula based on extensive use of Malagasy as the language of instruction, for which unqualified, poorly paid and ill-motivated teachers were not trained, together with dilapidated school buildings and the absence of educational materials and equipment for the increased number of students, had drastically affected the quality and the internal and external efficiencies of education. Repetition and dropout rates were extremely high, and the percentages of success in end-of cycle examinations were very low. Substantial numbers of school-leavers were unemployed, despite prevailing shortages of technicians, skilled workers and middle-level managers. The decline of the educational system had to be halted and the trend reversed. 1.2 As succinctly stated in the Development Credit Agreement (DCA), the objectives of the project were to improve the quality and the internal and external efficiencies of the education system. The President's Report and Staff Appraisal Report (SAR) made it clear that this was a first credit to help the Government start its education development program, which would be implemented over 10 to 15 years. The project was to begin a major sector reform, which included inter alia: (i) control of recurrent costs at all levels to free resources for quality improvement and increased primary enrollment; (ii) a rolling three-year sector public expenditure program (PEP) to be reviewed annually, to reflect increased spending on primary education and on quality at all levels; and (iii) a progressive reorientation to employment needs of vocational education and training. 1.3 To help achieve the above objectives, a number of policy measures were to be carried out in conjunction with the project. The project itself consisted of three components: (a)  Page 2 Projecit Implementation Assessment improving the sector administration, management and planning, by purchasing computer and office equipment, by conducting studies and training, by reorganizing planning and statistics services and by establishing project coordination; (b) improving the quality of basic and general secondary education, by setting up a pedagogical unit (Unit d'Etude et Recherche Pedagogiques - UERP), by increasing the role of inspectors, education advisers and headmasters, as well as pre-service and in-service training for teachers, by providing textbooks and teachers' guides, and by upgrading secondary school laboratories; and (c) strengthening higher level education, by setting up two short-cycle higher technical training institutes and by developing plans to modernize university curricula and to improve university administration and the cost/financing balance at university level. 1.4 The Education Sector Reinforcement Project was to be implemented through both the Ministry of Basic and Secondary Education (MINESEB) and the Ministry of Higher Education (MINESUP). To coordinate, support and monitor implementation of the long- term program and project, the Education Project Coordinating Committee (CCPE), the Committee to Coordinate Pedagogical Activities (CCAP), and a Project Implementation Unit (BPE), were established under the two education ministers. The total project cost estimate was US$55.0 million equivalent; the project was expected to be completed by December 31, 1995 and the credit closed on June 30, 1996. 1.5 The project's objectives were clear, and many criteria for judging the achievement of objectives were quantified in the SAR, the Development Credit Agreement (DCA) and in five supplemental letters to the DCA. Because of the tremendous deterioration in both the quality of education and the functioning of the system during the preceding 10 years, the objectives were very important for Madagascar and the education sector, as well as for the Bank's country assistance strategy. The project was responsive to changes in Madagascar circumstances and development priorities. The situation of the education sector had become so bad across the board that it made sense to attempt to do something in all areas and it was difficult, if not impossible, to set priorities; therefore, the project looked like a Christmas tree. In effect, the project together with the accompanying policy measures was a sector development program. It was part of a generation of investment, programs in other sectors in Madagascar and other countries in the region which aimed at tackling, or at least beginning to tackle all the major problems of the sector. There is no question that the project was complex and risky and demanding for Government and the ministries and institutions involved with education. Some of the quantified targets were not very realistic. On the other hand, the SAR did not underestimate the difficulties likely to be encountered: it included a very candid and lengthy discussion of risks associated with the project. In particular, it acknowledged that the CRESED reform program was complex and required many actions by a wide range of people, and that the political implications of somLe of the measures made their implementation risky. Achievement of Project Objectives 1.6 The design of the project, with its emphasis on the re-establishment of teacher training and the production and distribution of textbooks to students in the classrooms, was appropriate for achieving the project's objectives. However, experience showed that the  Page 3 Project Implementation Assessment design overemphasized actions and measures at, or originating at the central level. That problem was corrected during project implementation by introducing more participation at the local level. In assessing the degree to which the project achieved its major objectives, one should keep in mind that some of the targets were very ambitious and difficult to reach within the project period. 1.7 Achievements are highlighted in the Aide- Memoire of the last supervision mission of June 1998 (Appendix A) and in the Borrower's Report (Appendix B); also, Tables 5 and 6 provide a summary of the achievements and shortcomings of the project through key indicators for project implementation and operation. Achievements include inter alia: (a) approval by Parliament in March 1995 of a new law setting the goals and major orientations of education and training; (b) production in 1997 of a sector strategy to improve delivery of primary and secondary education, based on extensive work in both the primary and secondary sub-sector and the higher education system, as well as in vocational training; (c) following a successful experiment in one Province, implementation of an ambitious program (PRAGAP) to improve delivery of primary education at the school level in a total of 20 school districts (out of 111) and for about 2,600 public primary schools (out of about 12,600 schools nationwide); (d) establishment of two Higher Institutes of Technology (IST), and adoption of a master plan for development of higher education and scientific research; (e) the partial implementation of recommendations of project-financed studies aimed at reforming management of primary and secondary education; (f) implementation of CRESED-financed activities, including provision of about 3.3 million textbooks and teaching-learning materials (maps, charts, and teachers' guides), provision of transportation facilities (vehicles at district level and bicycles at sub-district level) to supervise schools, and improved pre- and in-service training for teachers, with the rehabilitation and equipment of teacher training colleges and in-service training centers; (g) establishment of institutional processes aimed at shaping policies, defining investment priorities (including production of public expenditures programs) and implementation change in the education system; and (h) in recent years, increased budgetary allocations for direct transfer to primary schools for provision of school implements to pupils and staff. However, the budgets for non-salary expenditures have not always been equal to the levels agreed upon between the Government and the Bank during the Public Expenditures Review (PERs) and, therefore, may not have been commensurate with the quality improvement measures that the Government wished to implement. 1.8 In summary, achievements can be assessed as "substantial" for sector policies, institutional development and physical objectives, "partial" for public sector management and private sector development, and "negligible" for financial objectives; other objectives listed in Table 1 do not apply. Regarding sector policies and institutional development, policy measures were carried out in conjunction with the project to strengthen planning and management and make education administration more efficient. Unfortunately, not all the recommendations of the study of the management of MINESEB (completed in 1992) were implemented, particularly those regarding personnel management at the primary and secondary levels (hence, a rating of "partial" for public sector management). The achievements, which included a reform of higher level education (with the eviction of "professional students" or squatters from university campuses) and a reorganization of vocational and technical training, are nevertheless substantial. As for physical objectives, much has been done to rehabilitate and equip teacher training colleges, training centers and  Page 4 Project Implementation Assessment primary schools; to train personnel at all levels and in many disciplines; and to produce and distribute textbooks and teaching materials. New intakes at primary level which had continued to decline started again to increase above their previous level only in 1995-1996, but with an acceleration in the rate of increase (an increase of about 10 percent in 1997- 1998). As discussed below under the "Assessment of Outcome", there is evidence that the quality of education has actually improved, although the project was only the first phase of a long term effort to rehabilitate the education system. 1.9 On the other hand, performance on financial objectives is rated negligible. Between 1990 and 1997, public expenditures for education declined as a share of GDP (from 2.3% to 1.4%), with a decrease in real terms in the budget for primary education. As a share of the total budget, however, public spending on education was unchanged over the same period, at around 9%. Given Government efforts to reduce public expenditures across the board (total government budget share of GDP fell from 24% to 15% in 1991-97), therefore, the education sector as a whole appears to have fared neither better nor worse than other sectors. The share of primary education in the total education budget and the total budget also remained about the same, at about 30% and 2.9%, respectively. In recent years, some progress has been made in redistribution of public expenditures from wages and social services (in higher education) to non-salary expenditures for quality inputs. 1.10 It should be noted that, despite the drop in education expenditures in relation to GDP and in real terms, the education sector has been able to continue to operate and expand, and even experience some improvements. There are two reasons why this happened. First, public education has become more efficient through redeploymient and control of staff and other measures to better utilize available resources, maybe as a consequence of the budget squeeze. Second, private education has continued to expancl at primary, secondary and tertiary levels, and community and parent financial participation increased significantly in the context of school-based contracts. Implementation Record and Major Factors Affecting The project 1.11 The Borrower's report in Appendix B describes the imnplementation record for the project. Performance on implementation and achievement of development objectives have varied widely. After a difficult and slow start, the project came to a standstill in 1991 because of the political events and civil disturbances, and it was not until mid-1992 that the sector picked up momentum again, with gradual progress linked to transition to a democratic regime. These events account for implementation delays of about two and a half years. Extensions of the closing date of the credit were justified by the progress made by Government on the agreed upon work programs, as reflected by the pace of implementation of project-financed activities and level of disbursement. 1.12 The latest estimate of the cost of the project is US$61.3 million, compared to the SAR estimate of US$55.0 million including taxes, or an 11 percent increase. Because of the increase in the dollar value of the SDR, IDA disbursements in dollars were more than originally forecast (plus 10 percent), other donors (OPEC/Germany/UNDP) contributed less than the original estimates (minus 20 percent) but Government contributed more than the original estimates (plus 43 percent). Forty-four percent of the US$61.3 million were spent  Page 5 Project Implementation Assessment for the administration and planning component, 36 percent for the quality and efficiency improvement component, and 7 percent for the higher education component; the balance of 13 percent was for taxes. 1.13 A number of factors affected project implementation and the achievement of the project objectives. The factors that affected project implementation negatively were the political crisis and civil disturbances of 1991, problems and delays with civil works contractors and suppliers, a lessening of the Government commitment to reforms (at least to the most politically sensitive) during the "transition" period and beyond, some delays in the provision of counterpart funds, and cumbersome administrative procedures. On the positive side, there was continuity in staff on the Bank side during implementation, as well as in the ministry from 1992 to 1996. Both the Government and the Bank showed flexibility and were receptive to changes in approach (i.e., more participation at the local level) to better achieve the project objectives. The BPE was not always as efficient as it could have been on administrative matters, particularly in the early years, but on the other hand it did spend a lot of time and energy, through visits and workshops, on the monitoring and operational follow- up of the various programs in the field. The Bank-UNESCO Cooperative Program participated actively in project preparation. All cofinanciers (OPEC/Germany/UNDP) made also a positive contribution: as an example, the GTZ team of Germany developed capacity in the pedagogical unit (UTERP) for designing, testing and producing textbooks. 1.14 Particularly noteworthy was the joint decision by the Government and the Bank to complement the sector strategy with activities at the immediate level of the schools and school children. This program for strengthening management and improving quality of primary education (Programme de Renforcement et dAmelioration de la Gestion Administrative et Pedagogique - PRAGAP), which fitted well within the project's objectives, was adopted after the mid-term review of the project by the Government and the Bank. It started experimenting with new methods for ministry-community collaboration in improving primary education through school-based contracts. PRAGAP was based essentially on a decentralized and participatory approach, giving more responsibility to local authorities, teachers and parents to decide what had to be done and how it should be done, taking into account existing constraints (mostly financial constraints) and the particular situation of each school. Each plan of action was incorporated into a contract between the CiSco and the local steering committee (comite de pilotage) representing the community, spelling out the responsibilities and contributions of each party. In December 1993, the Provincial Department of Education in Mahajanga initiated school-level projects in two pilot school districts (CiSco). Following an interim evaluation in February 1995, the Government and the Bank agreed, based on the success of this first attempt, to expand the program to eight other CiScos in Mahajanga and to introduce the approach in two CiScos in each of the other five Provinces. According to impact studies completed in September 1997 and in May 1998, the results of the program, in both implementation and impact, have been good. The main conclusions are: (a) The program has been very successful at reaching local communities, especially in remote rural areas, and in developing effective collaboration between local authorities of MINESEB and representatives of the community. More than 95 percent of all communities with a public primary school have committed themselves to implementing the school-based improvement contracts (fanakena). (b) Implementation of contracts (prepared and negotiated locally) is satisfactory in more than 80 percent of the 2,600 schools having  Page 6 Project! Implementation Assessment contracts (out of about 12,600 schools operating in the whole country); moreover in some schools, the community has constructed additional classrooms or teachers' houses beyond those in the contract. However, some delays have occurred, especially because of late delivery of materials to the schools and lack of coordination of works implemented by local communities themselves. (c) About US$2.0 million has been spent on construction materials for the schools, averaging about US$800.00 per school. (d) In the 20 PRAGAP-CiScos (out of I l l in the whole country) Grade 1 enrollment increased by 28 percent between 1993-1994 and 1995-1996 (compared to 15 percent nationwide), and overall enrollment increased by 15 percent (compared to 7 percent nationwide); and (e) anecdotal evidence suggests that transfer of teachers has formally increased teacher availability by about one additional teacher to every two schools in participating PRAGAP-CiScos. Project Sustainability 1.15 The achievements generated in relation to the project's major objectives are likely to be maintained in the future, provided that the financial constraints do not become worse. The project itself has brought about fundamental changes in the thinking of many Malagasy, not only in Government circles, the ministries and education personnel, but also in the civil society about how to improve the quality and the efficiency of the education system. There is an increasing recognition that a very centralized approach does not work and that many of the problems of the education sector can best be solved at the local level. Those changes in thinking are also reflected in the newly adopted sector policies unlikely to be reversed. The substantial achievements in institutional development and physical objectives should last for two reasons. First, in finalizing the project's activities, the Government and the Bank have tried to design activities that are both reasonable and affordable under the Government budget once project financing ends. For example, textbooks are' relatively cheap, and only a small amount for rehabilitation is to be included in each school-based contract under PRAGAP. Second, the more participatory approach at the local level promoted under PRAGAP means that many new stakeholders will want to ensure that project assets are properly maintained and that the new sector policies are not abandoned. But it is important that the Government also increases its financing for the activities which have become its responsibility, as highlighted in paragraph 23 of the aide-memoire of the last supervision mission for the project in June 1998 (Appendix A). The sustainability of the project will also be reinforced by the Education Sector Development Project (CR. 3046-MAG) approved in 1998 which will continue and expand some of the activities undertaken under this project, particularly school-based projects developed with local communities.  Page 7 Project Implementation Assessment Bank Performance 1.16 The Bank performance on this project has been highly satisfactory at the identification stage and for supervision, and satisfactory for preparation assistance and appraisal. The project provided a breakthrough in the relationship between the Government and the Bank in the education sector. As mentioned earlier, the project objectives were important for Madagascar and for the Bank's country assistance strategy, and the project was very responsive to changes in circumstances and development priorities in Madagascar. 1.17 The Bank performance for preparation assistance (and also for appraisal, which did not always involve an independent review of work done during preparation) was satisfactory. The preparation of a project of such scope and complexity required very intensive work from the Bank in collaboration with Government and other donors (including the Bank-UNESCO Cooperative program). Although the design was satisfactory overall, certain aspects of the project were unrealistic and some of the targets too ambitious. 1.18 Regarding project implementation, the project has been well supervised by the Bank, with a remarkable continuity in staff The Bank has shown great flexibility. For example, with the design and implementation of PRAGAP (a good initiative undertaken jointly by the Government and the Bank), it adopted an approach more focused on the schools and students, and it adjusted the in-service training programs to make them more responsive to the needs of teachers at the local level. Finally, sometimes the Bank has acted as a catalyst for actions taken by Government; as an example, the "assainissement" of universities, which is quite unique in Africa, was not a condition of the credit, but has been done within the context of the project. The question arises of whether the Bank could have been more forceful in reminding Government to comply with its commitments to increase, in real terms, expenditures for primary education and to allocate a larger share of public expenditures to non-salary expenditures, as well as to redeploy administrative and teaching personnel. Such pressure might have been counterproductive and have jeopardized the satisfactory results which have been achieved in the end. 1.19 More generally, the Bank has been Madagascar's lead donor supporting the development in education and training policy, and has been instrumental in preparing sub- sectoral and integrated sectoral master plans that draw lessons from experience (for example in PRAGAP), as well as encouraging donor coordination and information exchange. The Bank brought its macroeconomics and decentralization-related policy dialogue to influence education sector issues, particularly with regard to community involvement, encouragement of the private sector and public expenditures. Equity issues have also been at the center of the policy dialogue between the Bank and the Government, and with other donors. As an example, it is at the Bank suggestion that Government discontinued the cost recovery for textbooks because of parents' limited capacity to pay. Borrower Performance 1.20 The Borrower performance can be rated as satisfactory for preparation, implementation and covenant compliance.  Page 8 Project Implementation Assessment 1.21 The ministries were very much involved in the preparation of the project, with a strong Government commitment when the project was prepared and appraised, and there was a strong desire, by political authorities at all levels, for the project to be implemented. 1.22 For many years, there had been great continuity in the leadership at the primary and secondary levels (the Minister and Secretary General appointed in early 1992 were still in position in May 1996). But in recent years, high staff turnover at key managerial positions in MINESEB, especially Directors at central and regional levels and District officers, has been a problem mainly caused by frequent changes in Government and political leaders. During the period from mid 1996 to mid-1997: there have been three ministers of education, and the vast majority of the 6 provincial directors and 111 district officers have been replaced. Nevertheless, a stable approach to policy development has been maintained despite these changes. Thanks to the continuity in the staff of the BPE (project implementation unit), the central team (Equipe Centrale de Gestion) and support staff at district level (accountants, pedagogical advisers, and implementation specialists), the projiect has been able to sensitize the newly appointed managers to the PRAGAP approach and to provide the necessary continuity, albeit at the cost of implementation delays. On the financial side, counterpart funds have not always be made available on time. 1.23 Established in 1990, the project implementation unit (BPE) has been the main executing agency responsible for project implementation. After a slow start, the BPE has gained experience and confidence in managing complex procurement operations (such as procurement and distribution of 3.3 million textbooks, maps, charts, and teaching guides to about 12,600 primary schools and more than 700 colleges), in effectively acting as liaison with line staff at central, regional and district levels; and in delivering support services (equipping services, training staff, monitoring implementation and reporting) to MINESEB and MINESUP. More could have been done to develop an effective planning and monitoring system at all levels, and to assist staff in regional, district and sub-district offices in understanding the system, in developing the necessary skills to use and evolve within the system, in strengthening decision-making skills and processes at all levels, and in participating in all phases of project implementation. 1.24 The Borrower also deserves credit for its role in the design and implementation of PRAGAP and for the commitment it has shown to the devolution of responsibilities to the local level. In higher education, the Government has been willing to undertake politically difficult and sensitive decisions since 1992, as well as to maintain a consistent and developmental approach to planning for the sub-sector. University reforms included: evicting "professional students" or squatters from university campuses, leading to the return of normal functioning in the universities; delegating greater academic autonomy to the universities and within the universities with the establishment of board of directors for each university, and councils at faculty and departmental levels; substantially reducing "student" numbers (from over 44,000 in 1993 to about 18,000 in 1997); introducing selection for entry for all subjects; rationalizing and devolving budgetary responsibility, by introducing budgetary norms and cost centers in each university, as well as moving towards the introduction of contract programs.  Page 9 Project Implementation Assessment 1.25 Despite the promising achievements and institutional developments discussed earlier, fulfillment of project developmental objectives has suffered from the inability of Government to increase, in real terms, expenditures for primary education. Government was also unable to make timely, consistent decisions in some very important areas, such as increased participation at primary and secondary levels and effective use of teaching and administrative staff; and progress remained timid on some key indicators. Many recommendations from the study of the education system management were not implemented. Obviously, the political implications relating to management of education personnel cannot be ignored. However, the much needed redeployment of staff (from administrative to teaching positions, and from urban to rural areas) and their increased productivity on the job can only be achieved if more responsibility and authority are given to provincial and district officials, and if the teachers themselves are subjected to the same kind of discipline that they do not hesitate to impose on their students. Assessment of Outcome 1.26 An assessment of the project's impact is in the Aide-m6moire of the last supervision mission of June 1998 (Appendix A) and in the Borrower Contribution to the ICR (Appendix B), as well as in Table 6 on key indicators for project operation. To assess the outcome of the project, the key indicators of development outcome/impact can be summarized as follows: (i) decline in enrollments at primary and secondary levels stopped and trends reversed; (ii) major reform in higher education begun with the goal to make it more effective and more responsive to economic and social development priorities; (iii) quality of learning improved at all levels of education; and (iv) allocation of public funding to primary education increased. 1.27 As discussed above, major reforms have been undertaken in higher education, and the "assainissement" of universities has been remarkable. Regarding public funding, the performance has been very disappointing since there has been no increase in the budgetary allocations for primary education in real terms. However, public education has become more efficient and has taken measures to better utilize available resources. Also, there has been a steady increase of enrollments in private schools, especially at secondary level where there has been a continued decrease of enrollments in public schools, so that the budgetary allocations per public school student may have been adequate. 1.28 Despite a satisfactory implementation of activities to improve the quality of education, the targets for increases in enrollment and in the internal efficiency at all levels have not been achieved. From 1987-1988 to 1997-1998, new intakes have increased by only 2.6 percent per year at level I (compared to the target of 4.0 percent per year); new intakes have decreased by 0.2 percent per year at level II (compared to a target of 2.0 percent increase), by 2.8 percent per year at level III (compared to a target of 1.0 percent increase), and by 5.0 percent per year at level IV (compared to a target of 0.5 percent increase). The annual increase in the school age group of about 3.0 percent (based on population growth) contributed to the substantial decline in the net enrollment ratio in primary schools from 74 percent in 1988/1989 to 59 percent in 1994/1995; the trend was reversed only in 1995/1996 with an enrollment ratio of 65 percent (figures for the last two years are not available). Throughout the period 1988-1997, the percentage of repeaters has remained in the 30-35  Page 10 Project Implementation Assessment percent range at primary level (compared to a target of a maximnum of 10 percent by the end of 1994), and at about 20 percent at secondary level. On the other hand, dropout rates have decreased to about 10 percent at primary level, and have varied widely between 1 and 11 percent at secondary level. Recent trends, however, present a more encouraging picture, at least with respect to enrollments. New intakes at primary level which had continued to decline started again to increase above their previous level only in 1995-1996. In the last two years, the rate of increase in number of children entering primary school has accelerated (an increase of about 10 percent in 1997-1998) and has been above the population growth rate. A study of the impact of PRAGAP in 10 CiScos shows a new intake rate of 31 percent, and a rate of increase in total enrollments in primary schools of 17 percent. Although the project was only the first phase of a long term effort to rehabilitate the education system, there is evidence that the quality of education has begun to improve. The proportion of students completing successfully primary and secondary education has varied widely but the trend shows some improvement, particularly for secondary education.. However, the success rates remain unacceptably low: 42 percent for the primary school certificate in 1996-1997, and 22 percent for the baccalaureate in 1995-1996 (figures for more recent years are not available). In retrospect, some of the targets were ambitious as they were difficult to reach within the project period. It is clear that it takes time for the favorable impact of the project activities to be felt at the level of the schools and the students. 1.29 Although all the targets have not been achieved, the principal merit of the project has been to halt the disastrous degradation of the educational system, and even to reverse the trends in certain areas. Despite some shortcomings of project design and implementation, the proceeds of IDA Credit 2094-MAG have been well spent and served useful purposes. In the end, the objectives of the project have been essentially met or are in the process of being met, and the outcome of the project is satisfactory overall. Future Operation 1.30 Under the project, a major effort was undertaken since 1995 to assist a team of Malagasy educators and decision-makers in preparing a revised strategy for the education and training sector. These efforts culminated in the production of a Second National Education Improvement Program (PNAE II), which incorporates strategies developed under the CRESED, and draws on lessons learned since the inception of the first national program (PNAE I) approved in 1988. At Government initiative, meetings of all donors active in the sector were called by the three ministries (MINESEB, MINESUP and METFP) in April and July 1997 to ensure support for the Government's program and facilitate the coordination of financial inputs; the Second National Education Improvement Program (PNAE II) was approved by Government in December 1997. 1.31 Some of the actions undertaken under this project will be continued and expanded under the Education Sector Development Project (Cr. 3046-MAG) approved in 1998. The new project, also referred to as CRESED II, will support the dlevelopment objectives of the Second National Education Improvement Program (PNAE II) to produce more and better trained students at all levels of education at sustainable costs. The impact of the program would be measured through improvements in learning outcoimes, in internal and external efficiency of education, and in access to primary and secondary education, particularly in  Page 11 Project Implementation Assessment rural areas. The strategic orientation adopted is centered on the devolution of responsibility to local and institutional levels, supported by a set of coherent policies at the national level. The Government has shown its commitment to the new program (PNAE II) through the preparation of sub-sectoral plans and an integrated national master plan for the development of education and training, as well as the formation of an inter-ministerial coordinating committee and an inter-sectoral working group, which have agreed priorities for the government's program. 1.32 A future evaluation by OED may throw new light on the impact of the project or identify additional lessons learned, particularly since it takes time for the impact of project activities (as well as those of CRESED II) to be felt at the level of the schools and the students.  Page 12 Project Implementation Assessment Key Lessons Learned 1.33 A number of lessons can be learned from the implementation of this Education Sector Reinforcement Project, particularly from the PRAGAP experience. Most of them relate to the question of decentralization. They have been taken into account in the design of CRESED II, but could also apply to other sectors. The main lessons are the following: 0 Participatory approaches at all levels have proved efFective instruments for project planning and implementation, as well as instruments of learning from experience. Development of social capital at national and local levels, formation of teams, continuity and cross-fertilization between regions and localities are additional benefits which accrue from the participatory approaches adopted. e The policy of centrally-managed redeployment of staff adopted in the early 1 990s has not proved successful. However, redeployment at local level (within school districts) has shown itself to be a satisfactory policy option (for example, under the PRAGAP more than 1,000 teachers have been transferred to rural primary schools). There is also a need for a diversity of specific initiatives to address the problems of the misdistribution and underemployment of teaching and other staff. a There is a need for a gradualist (planned and phased) approach to the devolution of responsibility and resources to the local level, accompanied by appropriate capacity building measures (e.g. pre-contract workshops, dialogue with communities representatives and school teachers, training fcr acceptance of financial responsibility, managing financial resources). Experience gained under PRAGAP shows that management capacity has to be developed first at regional level (DIRESEB, or Provincial Directorate of Education) before it can be delegated to district level (CiSco, or District Office for Education). In the 20 pilot districts where PRAGAP has been implemented since 1993, it is now clear that the day-to-day management of the community-based development process has to be delegated to the sub-district level (ZAP, or Local Administrative Zone which groups an average of 10 primary schools), supported by appropriate technical specialists from the District Office. * On-the-job training, tailored to the specific needs of the trainees, should be the main vehicle for developing skills and assisting local authorities. . Local communities, when given the initiative and modest resources, can effectively identify their own priorities, deliver a sustainable quality primary education, and increase their participation in the development process. The project has demonstrated the effectiveness and sustainability of local community-based development operations at primary level. Beneficiary assessments carried out under the project indicate that commun;i.ies are willing to incur the necessary costs to send their children to school and to participate in school rehabilitation. A number of communities overshot the objectives of their school-based contracts by constructing additional classrooms to accommodate increases in enrollments.  Page 13 Project Implementation Assessment * Financial and budgetary constraints may have some favorable consequences, in that they may force sector institutions to become more efficient and to better utilize available resources while also encouraging the development and participation of the private sector. * Since Government resources will be insufficient to cover all the financial requirements at secondary and higher education levels, there is a need to diversify participation in the financing and provision of education at these levels and to increase beneficiary contributions, particularly in higher education where benefits are captured mainly by beneficiaries.  2. STATISTICAL ANNEX  Page 15 Statistical Annex Table 1: Summary of Assessments A. Achievements of Substantial Partial Negligible Not Objectives Applicable Macro Policies X Sector Policies X Financial Objectives X Institutional Development X Physical Objectives X Poverty Reduction X Gender Issues X Other Social Objectives X Environmental Objectives X Public Sector Management X Private Sector X Development Other (specify) X B. Project Sustainability Likely Unlikely Uncertain x  Page 16 Statistical Annex Table I: Summary of Assessments (continued) C.. Bank Performance Highly Satisfactory Deficient Satisfactory Identification X Preparation Assistance Appraisal Supervision X D. Borrower Performance Highly Satisfactory Deficient Satisfactory Preparation X Implementation X Covenant Compliance X Operation (if applicable) N/A. N/A. N/A. E. Assessment Highly Satisfactory Unsatisfactory Highly of Outcome Satisfactory Unsatisfactory x  Page 17 StatisticalAnnex Table 2: Related Bank Loans and IDA Credits Credit or Purpose Year of Status Loan Title Approval Preceding Operations CR. 510 Technical education and secondary 1967 Completed teacher training CR. 663 In-service teacher training and education 1976 Completed administration, and production of educational materials CR. 1155 Accounting and Audit 1981 Completed CR. 1661 Accounting and Management Training 1986 Completed Following Operations Ongoing. CR. 2382 Vocational Education (PREFTEC) 1992 Closing 6/30/99 CR. 2474 Food Security and Nutrition (SECALINE) 1993 Ongoing. Closing 12/31/98 CR. 2778 Social Fund H (FID) 1995 Ongoing Cr. 3046 Education Sector Development 1998 Starting Cr. 3060 Community Nutrition II 1998 Starting  Page 18 Statistical Annex Table 3 Project Timetable Steps in project cycle Date planned Date actual / latest estimate Identification _ Jul 1986 Preparation 1987-1988 Appraisal Apr 1989 Negotiations Dec 1989 Board Presentation Feb 13, 1990 Signing Apr 4, 1990 Effectiveness May 1990 Jul 24, 1990 Midtenn Review -- Oct/Nov 1992 Project Completion Dec 31, 1995 Jun 30, 1998 Credit Closing Jun 30, 1996 Jun 30,1998 Table 4: Credit Disbursements: Cumulative Estimated and Actual (US$ million) Fiscal Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Appraisal Estimate 3.0 9.0 17.0 25.0 35.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 Actual - 2.8 5.7 9.5 12.5 20.6 29.9 38.9 42.9 42.9 Actual as % of Estimate 31.5 33.7 38.1 35.8 52.7 76.7 99.9 109.9 109.9 Date of Final Disbursement: August 25, 1998 Note: Amount canceled: SDR 500,000 (US$685,500) on July 24, 1997  Page 19 Statistical Annex Table 5: Key Indicators for Project Implementation Key Implementation Indicators in SAR/President's Estimated Actual Report Institutional Development Study of the management of education Yes Yes Establishment of a pedagogical unit Yes Yes Establishment of a national institute for pedagogical taining Yes Yes Establishment of 6 teacher traIiing colleges for primary teachers Yes Yes Establishment of 1 teacher training college for lower secondary Yes Yes teachers Establishment of centers for in-service training 33 17 Establishment of 2 higher institutes of technology Yes Yes Establishment of a cuniculum for educational planning at the Yes Yes IMATEP Establishment of a "Technop8le" N.I.O. Yes (1) Training Primary education Initial training of primary teachers N.N.E. 824 Initial training of pedagogical advisers N.N.E. 58 In-service training of primary teachers N.N.E. (2) Secondary education Initial training of secondary teachers N.N.E. 90 Initial training of pedagogical advisers for secondary level N.N.E. 97 In-service training of secondary teachers N.N.E. 22,050 (2) N.N.E. = Number not estimated - N.I.O. = Not included originally  Page 20 Statistical Annex Key Implementation Indicators in SAR/President's Estimated Actual Report Higher level educafion Graduates of higher institutes of technology N.N.E. 72 Trainers for higher institutes of technology N.N.E. 32 Computing Persons trained N.N.E. 306 (7861 persons/days) Textbooks and teaching materials Establishment of the cell for the distnbution of teaching materials - Yes Yes Cellule de Distribution des Auxiliaires Pedagogiques (CDAP) Textbooks 9 different 18 different tewtbooks textbooks for a total of 2,978,000 copies Teaching guides 7 different 12 different guides guides for a total of 204,480 copies Maps and charts 7 different 7 different maps and maps and charts for a total of charts 89,400 copies Rehabilitation and equipment Training colleges for primary teachers 6 5 (3) Higher institutes of technology 2 2 In-service training centers 33 17 Primary schools N.I.O. 112 (4) Provhicial Directorates of Education (DIRESEB) N.I.O. 6 N.N.E. = Number not estimated - N.I.O. = Not included originally  Page 21 Statistical Annex Key Implementation Indicators in SAR/President's Estimated Actual Report PRAGAP School-based contracts, providing for logistical and pedagogical 2,600 pnrmary support within the context of aprograin centered on the schools and N.I.O. schools in 20 students, and with the participation of communities and local CiScos. authorities. Education planning (MAGPLANED) Strengthening of the management and planning activities of MINESEB and MINESUP: Studies N.N.E. 9 Overseas training for staff N.N.E. 49 Local training for staff N.N.E. 2,600 persons/days Missions by planning experts N.N.E. 14 Higher level education Preparation of a master plan N.I.O. yes National program for the improvement of education - Programme National d 'Ameliorafion de l'EnseignementII N.I.O. Yes (PNAE II) N.N.E. = Number not estimated - N.I.O. = Not included originally Footnotes to Table 5: (1) Technopole of Toamasina - 4 centers for infonnation- & vocational taining. (2) about 10 days of training per person. (3) 1 training college is operating in a building that has not been rehabilitated because of the suspension of disbursements by OPEC. (4) 112 primary schools have been rehabilitated under an emergency program following the Geralda and Gretelle cyclones.  Page 22 Statistical Annex Table 6: Key indicators for Project Opervation The SAR/President's Report, the Development Credit Agreement (DCA) and the five supplemental letters to the DCA included a number of key indicators for project and sector operation and for monitoring the development outcome/impact of the project. Those key indicators can be summarized as follows: (i) decline in enrollments at primary and secondary levels stopped and trends reversed; (ii) major reiform in higher education initiated with the goal to make it more effective and more responsive to economic and social development priorities; (iii) improved quality of learning outcomes at all levels of education; and (iv) increased allocation of public funding to primary education. Indicator: Improvement of the quality of education through an increase in resources allocated to teacher training, support services and teaching materials. Actual: Although there has been no systematic learning assessment in the country, anecdotal evidence indicates that quality of teaching and learning have improved through in-service training, provision and use of teaching-learning materials, introduction of new curricula, and improved pedagogical supervision and support. Success rates at end-of- cycle examinations at primary level have improved significantly; however, the project was not successful at reducing repetition rates which stand at 35 percent at primary level. Indicator: A gradual increase, in real terms, of expenditures at the primary level to achieve over the medium term the goal of universal enrollment of children aged 6-12. Actual: The performance is disappointing at that level. Figures on the trends in GDP and budgets for the last 8 years are provided at the end of this Table. Between 1990 and 1997, the budget for primary education has decreased in real terms, a decline that has continued even when enrollments at primary level started to increase in 1995/1996. Over the same period, the percentage of expenditures allocated to primary level has remained about the same: about 2.7% to 2.9% of total public expenditures and, apart from some increases in 1994-1995, about 30% of the education budget. During the period, the total government budget has not increased in the same proportion as GDP, and the share of education in the total budget has remained about the same at around 9 percent. It seems, therefore, that the education sector as a whole was no better no worse than other sectors. Nevertheless, up to and including 1997 the Government has certainly not given any priority to primary education. It should be noted that private education has continued to expand at primary, secondary and tertiary levels, and community and parent financial participation increased significantly in the context of school-based contracts.  Page 23 StatisticalAnnex Indicator: An allocation of a larger share of the overall education budget to non-salary expenditures. The share of the overall public budget for primary and secondary education earmarked for non-salary expenditures will be gradually increased: 3.5 percent in 1988; 4.4 percent in 1989; 4.9 percent in 1990; 5.2 percent in 1991; 5.5 percent in 1992; 6.6 percent in 1993. Actual: In recent years, some progress has been achieved in redistribution of public expenditures from wages and social services (in higher education) to non-salary expenditures for quality inputs. Indicator: Control of student flows, with increases for new entrants by around: 4 percent per year at level I, 2 percent per year at level II, 1 percent per year at level m, and 0.5 percent per year at level IV (see attached table on page 28). Actual: From 1987-88 to 1997-98, new intakes have increased by only 2.6 percent per year at level I (increases in new intakes at primary level started only in 1995/1996, later than originally expected); but have decreased by about 0.2 percent per year at level II, by about 2.8 percent per year at level m, and by about 7.0 percent per year at level IV. Indicator: Expenditure priorities among levels I, II and Ell will be reviewed, and the percentages for 1989 will at least be maintained during the years 1990, 1991 and 1992, so that 72 percent of sector public expenditures for level 1, I and III will go to level I, 19 percent to level II, and 9 percent to level III. Actual: The actual categorization of the budget does not allow detailed analysis between lower (level II) and upper (level IEI) secondary. However, as noted above, the proportion of public resources allocated to primary level has remained about the same over the period of the project. Indicator: At the primary level, gradual reduction in the proportion of repeaters per class to a maximum of 10 percent by the end of 1994 (see attached table on page 28). Actual: Throughout the period 1990-1997, the percentage of repeaters has remained in the 30-35 percent range at primary level, with important variations at regional and district levels. However, available data from the PRAGAP districts indicate that repetition rates have decreased in those districts. Indicator: Full employment of teaching and non-teaching personnel, and hiring as teachers of graduates of training colleges. Better distribution of teaching personnel, in particular between urban and rural areas, and better distribution between teaching and non-teaching personnel. The goal is to reduce taux de suppMance at the primary level to 15 percent by 1991/92 and to 10 percent by 1992/93. To avoid unemployment among  Page 24 Statistical Annex EN3 graduates, the EN3 will enroll only those numbers of students that are needed to meet actual level III requirements. In general, the objective is to improve education sector personnel management. Actual: This covenant was not implemented because in 1990 the Government supported by the Bank decided to impose a freeze on recruitment of public civil servants. As a result, stipends (pre-salary) to students in teacher training colleges were abolished in 1993, and graduates were not automatically employed by the Ministry of Education. Many of these graduates were actually hired and paid by local communities, and a smaller proportion were employed in private schools. Under PRAGAP, efforts were made to redeploy teachers from urban to rural areas, and from administrative positions to teaching positions. In 1997, following discussions between Government and the Bank, an agreement was reached to hire 1,000 new teachers per year, provided that these newly recruited teachers be assigned in rural schools where there was a, demonstrated need. Indicator: Strengthening of planning and management withi.n the system to control student flows and make maximum use of existing buildings. Actual: Planning and management functions were strengthened through technical assistance, staff training, provision of materials and support for key operations. Results include: development of micro-planning capacity at provincial and district levels; competent staff (from the pool of existing administrative staff) trained and assigned to planning offices at district level; production of educational statistics and studies on schooling, participation and efficiency. Indicator: Study and implementation of measures to make education administration more efficient. Actual: A major study was undertaken in 1990(-91, and results were implemented, although partially, throughout the period of the project. These include a redefinition of roles and responsibilities of administrative staff at all levels of the hierarchy; reorganization of provincial and district offices with a view to reduce redundant staff and improve productivity; establishment of a database for staff in MINESEB. Indicator: Reallocation of resources earmarked for higher education, with a view to improving quality. Actual: Allocation of public resources on quality inputs was increased significantly while "social services" (fellowships, room and board) subsidies were decreased substantially. Indicator: Reorganization of vocational and technical training to develop a practical training system geared to job market requirements, with a coordinating structure in which  Page 25 Statistical Annex employers would be represented. Actual: A reform of vocational training was undertaken by the Ministry of Vocational Training (established in 1992), assisted by the Bank under the PREFTEC (Credit 2382- MAG). Indicator: Allocation of funds for building maintenance, and preparation of a maintenance policy. Gradual increase in the proportion of Fonds National de Developpement Economique funds earmarked for school building rehabilitation. Actual: Under PRAGAP, allocations for maintenance were increased, and maintenance procedures were elaborated and implemented. More needs to be done in both financial (budgetary transfers) and institutional (staff, systems and procedures) aspects on rehabilitation and maintenance. Indicator: Preparation of action plans for improving the quality of higher education: (i) action plan for the review of academic programs; (ii) action plan for enhancing the efficiency of university administration; and (iii) action plan for reallocating to the objective of improving the quality of university education the resources presently devoted to other objectives at the university level. For item (iii) issues to be dealt with include: a more appropriate distribution of budget funds among actual education, administration and student social expenditures (oeuvres universitaires), definition of strategies governing future university enrollment; development of management policies on scholarships, access to student social services and repeater rates; adoption of budgetary and financial procedures to regulate recurrent budgets; and adoption of administrative procedures to enable the universities to operate with numbers of non-teaching staff that do not exceed the minimum requirements. Actual: In 1995-1996, the Ministry of Higher Education (MINESUP) prepared a Master Plan, which was integrated into the National Program for the Improvement of the Education System (PNAE II) in 1997. In addition, since 1996, each public university and IST is producing and updating a rolling development plan that is discussed and approved by the Board (of each autonomous institution) prior to being submitted to MINESUP. Indicator: Preparation of all textbooks to be handled or coordinated by the Unite d'Etude et de Recherche P&dagogiques (UIERP), with the final choice approved by a newly- formed Textbooks Commission. Textbooks will be limited to books in the basic subjects (Malagasy, French, science, mathematics) at the primary and secondary level, levels I and II being assigned priority; agreement on their pedagogical quality and content must be reached between UERP and IDA; and their presentation must be as economical as possible, but this should not detract from their educational value. Analysis of the system for recovering book distribution costs will be financed out of the credit; it will be important to step up the contributions from local authorities and parents, but it must be  Page 26 Statistical Annex remembered that their capacities in that area are obviously limited. Actual: UERP is coordinating effectively the production of all teaching-learning materials. A cell for the distribution of teachinig materials (Cellule de Distribution des Auxiliaires Pedagogiques - CDAP) was established. Under CRESED a total of about 3.0 million textbooks were produced, printed and distributed to all primary and lower secondary schools; in addition, reference books, posters and other pedagogical materials were distributed. A cost recovery mechanism for textbooks was introduced under the project, but was not successful, in part because of parents' limited capacity to pay. At the Bank suggestion the Government discontinued the cost recovery for textbooks (at the same time, more appropriate forms of contributions by beneficiaries to school expenditures were being considered under school-based contracts). Indicator: The provisions governing the system of education at the Higher Institutes of Technology (IST) will include the following stipulations: (a) students shall not spend more than three years in any one of the Institutes; and (b) stuidents leaving an IST may not enroll at a university for five years. Actual: ISTs offer short training programs of no more than two-year duration, entry is governed by strict admission procedures following competitive examinations, and students are not allowed to repeat more than one time. As a result, internal efficiency rates are extremely high compared to those in public tertiary education. More than 80 percent of graduates find employment within months following graduation, and generally stay in their jobs and are promoted within the enterprises.  Page 27 Statistical Annex Trends in budgets (1991 to 1997) (in billion FMG) Year 1 19901 19911 19921 19931 19941 19951 1996 1997 asic data GDP 4,604 4,914 5,593 6,459 9,131 13,640 16,404 20,515 Government Budget 1,200 1,315 2,458 2,522 2,863 2,966 3,073 Education 111 122 137 139 202 242 286 MINESEB 79 94 103 105 164 200 236 MIDNESUP _ 32 28 34 34 38 42 50 Primary ___ 351 361 38 69 76 80 87 Index (1991 = 100) GDP 94 100 114 131 186 278 334 418 Government Budget 100 110 205 210 239 247 256 Education 100 110 124 125 182 218 258 'N NESEB 100 119 131 134 209 255 300 MINESUP I 100 871 105 106 118 129 155 Primary I___ 1001 1031 108 198 218 228 249 Ratios Total budget/ GDP 24% 24% 38% 28% 21% 18% 15% Education / GDP - 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% Education/total 9.2% 9.3% 5.6% 5.5% 7.1% 8.2% 9.3% budget MNEESEB / 71% 77% 75% 75% 81% 83% 82% Education MINESUP / 29% 23% 25% 25% 19% 17% 18% Education MINESEB / total 6.5% 7.1% 4.2% 4.2% 5.7% 6.7% 7.7% budget Primary / MINESEB 44% 38% 37% 66% 46% 40% 37% Primary / total 2.9% 2.7% 1.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% budget I Primary!7 GDP 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4%  TABLE 7: EVOLUTION OF PRIMARY, SECONDARY AND TERTIARY EDUCATION (1987-1997) Level / Indicators 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 % Average Annual Growth Rate 98/8798/87 PRIMARY NumberofPupils 1,487,725 1,534,142 1,512,322 1,570,721 1,496,845 1,490,317 1,504,668 1,511,408 1,638,187 1,752,851 1,921,087 2.6% o/w inprivate schools 224,681 237,036 252,317 278,812 325,579 322,015 318,593 337,812 337,154 371,303 430,978 6.7% (%pnvate/total) 15% 15% 17% 18% 22% 22% 21% 22% 21% 21% 22% Number of Pupils in Grade 1 547,998 588,850 560,226 598,942 578,689 552,348 554,362 566,412 553,708 686,181 763,177 3.4% o/w girls 255,429 278,559 268,102 292,007 261,330 266,723 268,210 277,553 262,489 332,879 371,585 3.8% (% girls/total) 47% 47% 48% 49% 45% 48% 48% 49% 47% 49% 49% Repetition rate in Grade 1 47% 47% 48% 49% 37% 41% 36% 43% 46% NA NA Repetition rate in Grade 5 36% 32% 33% 29% 32% 41% 32% 34% 39% NA NA NumberofSchools 13,449 13,672 13,575 13,791 13,696 13,508 13,624 13,486 10,817 12,338 NA o/wprivate 1,797 2,004 2,154 2,159 2,297 2,315 2,463 2,674 2,508 2,508 NA (%private/total) 13% 15% 16% 16% 17% 17% 18% 20% 23% 20% NA Number of teachers 38,361 37,894 38,342 38,933 39,837 38,743 37,676 38,536 37,552 39,775 39,908 0.4% o/wprivate 4,791 5,756 6,291 6,436 7,372 8,122 8,091 9,880 9,203 11,365 12,018 9.6% (% private/total) 12% 15% 16% 17% 19% 21%S, 21% 26% 25% 29% 30% Pupils sitting at end-of-cycle exam 178,675 159,725 152,048 148,642 151,019 120,933 140,911 141,911 148,251 NA NA Pupilspassingend-of-cycleexaTn 56,543 36,261 72,482 52,025 55,877 38,586 61,714 53,041 76,134 NA NA LOWER SECONDARY Students 271,054 255,846 259,178 259,989 235,322 243,705 237,909 235,766 241,249 261,713 264,766 -0.2% o/wprivate 81,070 78,523 84,557 87,536 9(),173 96,887 103,181 105,672 102,086 114,489 117,429 3.8% (%private/total) 30% 31% 33% 34% 38%/ 40% 43% 45% 42%/. 44% 44% Students in Grade 6 86,188 74,783 80,892 80,170 74,476 80,200 69,102 69,762 72,433 86,855 75,370 -1.3% o/wgirls 42,828 35,413 39,294 39,314 36,546 38,735 34,440 34,583 36,017 43,118 35,787 -1.8% (% girls/total) 50% 47% 49% 49% 49% 48% 50% 50% 50% 50% 47% Repetition rate in Grade 6 14% 13% 15% 16% 19% 21% 18% 16% 17% NA NA RepetitionrateinGrade9 26% 27% 33% 31% 32% 38% 33% 27% 31% NA NA NumberofSchools 1,133 1,113 1,128 1,165 1,141 1,136 1,153 1,2(04 1,204 1,132 1,267 1.1% o/w private 459 440 454 482 486 482 492 533 549 527 554 1.9% (% private/total) 41% 40% 40% 41% 43% 42% 43% 44% 46% 47% 44% Numberofteachers 9,341 9,478 10,516 9,750 10,687 10,792 11,161 11,387 11,692 12,326 12,817 3.2% o/wprivate 2,523 2,014 3,035 2,858 3,302 3,358 3,473 3,699 3,165 4,720 5,279 7.7% (%private/total) 27% 21% 29% 29% 31% 31% 31% 32% 27% 38% 41% Students sitting,end-of-cycle exam 80,288 70,547 64,911 62,410 66,740 66,829 65,494 69,213 68,326 NA NA Sudents passing end-of-cycle exam 33,896 23,651 16,537 15,603 16,685 20,272 16,158 17,226 18,547 NA NA StatisticalAnnex Page 28  Level / Indicators 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 % Average Annual Growth Rate 98/8798/87 UPPER SECONDARY Number of Students 78,970 73,786 72,060 64,783 58,399 60,724 60,332 57,683 54,686 57,092 59,271 -2.8% o/wprivate 34,599 31,560 29,862 26,937 25,623 28,924 29,991 29,262 27,431 28,059 29,258 -1.7% (%private/total) 44% 43% 41% 42% 44% 48% 50% 51% 50% 49% 49% Students in Grade 0 24,380 29,541 26,091 21,454 20,442 20,141 21,026 19,132 18,378 19,317 21,900 -1.1% oAvgirls 11,689 14,154 12,457 10,547 10,237 10,193 10,550 9,583 9,232 9,685 10,665 -0.9% (% girls/total) 48% 48% 48% 49% 50% 51% 50% 50% 50% 50% 49% Repetitionratein GradelO 15% 16% 17% 17% 19% 22% 15% 11% 12% NA NA Repetition rate in Grade 12 29% 33% 31% 34% 44% 42% 31% 34% 36% NA NA NumberofSchools 239 262 259 280 288 281 291 314 316 301 304 2.4% o/wprivate 160 180 174 193 201 193 193 225 208 206 217 3.1% (%private/total) 67% 69% 67% 69% 70% 69% 66% 72% 66% 68% 71% Numberofteachers 3,131 3,682 3,866 5,106 3,738 3,978 3,957 4,274 4,803 5,151 4,981 4.8% o/wprivate 1,008 1,277 1,242 1,460 1,255 1,307 1,402 1,700 2,164 2,572 2,443 9.3% (% private/total) 32% 35% 32% 29% 34% 33% 35% 40% 45% 50% 49% Students sitting end-of-cycle exarn 46,984 46,748 47,624 42,874 42,154 32,611 35,878 28,904 27,357 NA NA Sudentspassingbaccalaureat 7,650 8,909 8,673 5,857 6,323 6,128 8,047 8,054 6,107 NA NA (%passing/sitting) 16% 19% 18% 14% 15% 19% 22% 28% 22% NA NA HIGHER EDUCATION Students in6ppublic universities 36,269 37,095 37,046 35,824 NA 33,202 26,937 21,997 20,808 18,945 NA Enrollments in distance education NA 9,306 9,208 8,286 7,707 8,133 NA Enrollments in the 2 ISTs NA 173 382 344 344 431 NA Total 36,269 37,095 37,046 35,824 NA 42,681 36,527 30,627 28,859 27,509 NA (% girstotal) NA NA NA NA NA 45% 45% Statistical Annex Page 29  Page 30 Statistical,Annex Table 8: Studies Included in Project Description of study Impact of Study Study of the establishment of a distribution network for -Establishment of CDAP/BPE textbooks and teaching-learning materials. - Distribution of textbooks and learning-teaching materials. Study of the management of the education system, - Operation "PRAGAP" including planning, budgeting, management of human - Preparation of PNAE II and resources and computing. CRESED II Study of the history of Madagascar to prepare textbooks -Improvement of programming in for all levels. MINESEB Study of the factors affecting schooling and participation -Improvement of programming in (including repetition rates) in primary schools. MINESEB Diagnosis of the situation and recent trends of the -Improvement of programming in education system, and evaluation of the different policies MINESEB and strategies for the development of primary and secondary education. Study of the factors affecting access, attendance and -Improvement of programming in drop-out rates in primary schools. MINESEB Study of the cost and financing of primary and secondary -Improvement of programming in education. MINESEB Study on the availability and utilization of teaching- - Provided useful inputs for the learning materials. preparation of a national policy on textbooks. Study of monitoring system and indicators to follow -Provided useful inputs for the progress in the implementation of the educational policy. preparalion of PNAE II and CRESED II. Study of social services for university students. - Reallocation of resources to higher priority objectives Study of a management information system for higher - Improvement in planning and education. budgeting. Study of the cost and financing of higher education. - Provided useful inputs for the preparation of an action plan to rationalize the allocation of resources. Master Plan for higher education. - Preparation of CRESED II / FADES. Study of the feasibility of an evaluation system, and - Capacity building for planning identification of the factors related to learning in primary department. education.  Page 31 Statistical Annex Table 9A: Project Costs (US $ million) Project Components Appraisal Actual/Latest Estimate Estimate Administration and Plamiing 9.9 27.2 Quality and Efficiency improvement 21.8 21.7 Higher Education 8.8 4.4 Sub-total base costs 40.5 53.3 Contingencies 8.1 Total Project Costs (excluding taxes) 48.6 53.3 Taxes 6.4 8.0 Total Project Costs (including taxes) 55.0 61.3 Table 9B Project Financing (US$ million) Source Appraisal ActualtLatest Estimate Estimate Government - counterpart funds 2.5 4.7 Government - taxes 6.4 8.0 IDA 39.0 42.9 OPEC 5.0 3.6 Federal Republic of Germany 1.1 1.1 UNDP 1.0 1.0 Total 55.0 61.3  Page 32 Statistical Annex Table 10 : Economic Costs and Benefits The Staff Appraisal report (SAR) did not include any economic analysis of the project. There are no data available to calculate a posteriori the economic rates of return or the costeffectiveness of the investments that were actually financed under the Project.  Table 11: Status of Legal Covenants in the Credit Agreement Section Covenant Present Fulfillment Description of Covenant Comments Type Status date 2.02(b) 1 C Continuous Open and maintain in dollars a Special Account in the Because of foreign exchange name of its Central Bank in a commercial bank, on regulations, from 1990 to terms and conditions satisfactory to IDA, to be 1992 account was in a operated in accordance with Schedule 5 of DCA, commercial bank in Paris. 3.01 (a) 4, 5 CP Continuous Borrfowers commitment to project objectives; Budgetary allocations agreed Borrower to carry out project through MINESEB and upon at the beginning of the MINESUP with due diligence and efficiency and in year have not always been conformity with appropriate admninistrative, financial, deposited in full into the educational and engineering practices, and to provide, caisse d'avance during the promptly as needed, funds, facilities, services and year. other resources required for project. 3.01 (b) 4 CP Continuous Borrower to maintain a Caisse d'Avance in the name Same as above. of, and to be operated by BPE, and to make funds available for it in a timely fashion. Continuous Procurement of goods, works and consultants' services The procedures were 3.02 10 C financed out of the proceeds of the Credit to be followed, but procurement governed by the provisions of Schedule 3 to the activities experienced Development Credit Agreement (DCA). substantial delays because of cumbersome procedures and poor management. 3.03 5, 10 C By July 31 of By July 31 of each year, Borrower to prepare and BPE prepared training each year fumish to IDA for approval a training program for the programs since 1992-93 and, next following school year. in March 1994, updated for remainder of project in the context of a comprehensive planning review. Statistical 4nnex Page 33  Section Covenant Present Fulfillment Description of Covenant Comments Type Status date 3.04 5 C Continuous Borrower to keep BPE with adequate responsibilities, Performance evaluation and to keep the position of Director of BPE staffed conducted in November 1995 with an individual whose qualifications are acceptable and 1996; results were to IDA. satisfactory. 3.05 5,10 C Continuous Before commencement of any study on internal and Studies conducted under external efficiency of education system and MAGPLANED and improvement of educational quality, Borrower to completed in March 1996. fumish to IDA for approval the terms of reference for that study. 3.06 9 CD By Dec 31, By December 31, 1991, Borrower to prepare and Mid-term review document 1991 furnish to IDA action plans on development of higher prepared by Government and education and a mid-term review report on: execution sent to the Bank on of the project, performance of the Borrower, and the September 28, 1992. Mid- accomplishment of the purposes of the credit. term review mission visited Madagascar between October 26 and November 12, 1992. Action Plan for higher education completed in June 1993. Statistical Annex }'age 34  Section Covenant Present Fulfillment Description of Covenant Comments Type Status date 4.01 1 C Audit reports have been By June 30 Borrower to maintain adequate project records and submitted as follows: of each year, accounts, to have the accounts (including the special Date Year for the account and statements of expenditures) audited by Submission preceding independent auditors acceptable to IDA, and to 03/1991 1990 year. furmish to IDA, not later than six months after the end 05/1992 1991 of each fiscal year, the report of such audit by said 05/1993 1992 auditors. 05/1994 1993 05/1995 1994 05/1996 1995 10/1996 1st half 1996 05/1997 2d half 1996 10/1997 lsthalf 1997 06/1998 2d half 1997 4.02 11 C By October By October 31 of each year, Borrower to prepare and PEPs for primary/secondary 31 of each furnish to IDA for approval a three-year rolling public and higher education have year. expenditure program (PEP) in the education sector been submitted regularly to consistent with the education strategy. the Bank for review and comments, and the Bank conducted public expenditure reviews. 6.01 3, 4, 5, 10 C Conditions of (1) Borrower has taken all necessary measures (i) to Credit was made effective on effectiveness make the UERP (pedagogical unit) fully operational, July 24, 1990. and (ii) to establish BPE and appoint its Director; (2) the cofinancing agreement with the OPEC Fund has been signed, and the cofinancing from IJNDP is effective; and (3) the BPE "caisse d'avance" has been established. Statistical Annex Page 35  Section Covenant Present Fulfillment Description of Covenant Comments Type Status date Schedule 3,10 C Condition of A condition of disbursement for university quality On the basis of satisfactory 1 to DCA disbursement improvement, rehabilitation of three primary teacher progress on production and training colleges, and production of six out of nine distribution of school books text-books was agreement between Borrower and IDA and reform of management at on action plans for: (i) university curricula primary and secondary levels, modernization, administration and financing IDA authorized improvements; (ii) more efficient use of staff in disbursements under the MINESEB and strengthening of education second phase of the project in administration, and (iii) school book distribution and the follow-up letter dated .___________ storage and cost recovery for school books. February 4, 1994. Schedule 4 to DCA 1. 6, 10 CD By June 30, Borrower to prepare and review with IDA programs to UERP has integrated these 1991 integrate nutritional, enviromnental and population concerns into the new concerns into public education. curricula that have been developed and introduced at primary and secondary levels starting in the academic year 1995-1996. Statistical Annex Page 36  Section Covenant Present Fulfillment Description of Covenant Comments Type Status date 2. 10 CD By June 30, Borrower to prepare and review with IDA programs It is not clear why such a 1991 for improving female enrollment rates. covenant was included in DCA, since female enrollment has never been a problem (girls account for close to 50 percent of enrollments). In any event, in 1995, MINESEB issued a policy statement which calls for increases in enrollment of girls. 3 . 10 CD By June 30, Borrower to issue adequate directives to directors and MINESEB issued a policy 1990 teachers of primary schools to set objectives for statement for 1995 and maximum repetition rates in each section of 25% by beyond which calls for a 1991, 20% by 1992, 15% by 1993 and 10% by 1994. reduction of repetition rates. However, despite a slight improvement in recent years, repetition rates remain high, above the agreed upon levels. 4. 10 C Before June Borrower to ensure that no new universities or new No new universities 30, 1993 faculty at the universities (excepting the two higher established as of June 1993. technological institutes included in project) be established before June 30, 1993. Statistical Annex Page 3 7  Section Covenant Present Fulfillment Description of Covenant Comments Type Status date 5. 12 CD By December Borrower to establish an interninisterial agency In March 1992, a decree was 31, 1990 responsible for the coordination of vocational training issued by Government to and technical education activities. establish the "Conseil National de Formation Technique et Professionnelle" under the FY 1992 PREFTEC Project (Cr. 2382-MAG). 6. 10, 12 CP Upon completion of training colleges, Borrower to The emergency rehabilitation Continuous ensure that they function at full capacity, and that at phase for training colleges least 600 qualified primary teachers and 300 qualified was completed in 1992; by lower secondary teachers are recruited per year. that time a freeze on new recruitment had been imposed and remained in force until the end of the project. In response to the freeze on recruitment in the public sector, Government delinked admission to Teacher Training Institutions from em.ploym,ent Ai Fubu se, vice, thus responding to growing needs for trained teachers in private schools. In 1997-98, MINESEB recruited 900 teachers at primary level, most of them graduates from Teacher Training Institutions. Statistical Annex Page 38  There were five supplemental letters to the DCA. Compliance with the stipulations of those letters is referred in part in tables 5 and 6, and I I discussed in the main text of the Implementation Completion report (ICR). Covenant types: 1 = Accounts/audits. 8= Indigenous people. Present status: 2 = Financial perfornance/revenue 9 = Monitoring, review and reporting. generation from beneficiaries. 10 = Project implementation not covered by C = Covenant complied with. 3 = Flow and utilization of project funds. categories 1-9. CD = Complied with after delay. 4 = Counterpart funding. 11 = Sectoral or cross-sectoral budgetary or CP = Complied with partially. 5 = Management aspects of the project or other resource allocation.. NC = Not complied with. executing agency. 12 = Sectoral or cross-sectoral 6 = Environmental covenants. policy/regulatory/ institutional action. 7 = Involuntary resettlement. 13 = Other. StatisticalAnnex Page 39  Page 40 __ Statistical Annex Table 12: Compliance with Operational Maniual Statements Statement Number andTitle Describe and comment on lack of i________ compliance Bank Operational Manual Statements (OD or OP/BP) have been substantially complied with. Table 13: Bank Resources: Staff Inputs Stage of Project Cycle Actual Weeks US$ Preparation to Appraisal 168.3 213.1 Appraisal 19.4 37.2 Negotiations through Board 9.5 21.7 Approval _ Supervision 192.2 469.2 Completion 7.6 .4 TOTAL 397 741.6 Sour oe: FACT  Page 41 Statistical Annex Table 14: Bank Resources: Mssions. Stage of Month Number Days Specialized staff Performance Rating Types of Project Cycle /Year of in skills represented Problems Persons Field istplemen- Develop- tation Status ment ._.___.__ _________________ Objectives Through From appraisal 7/86 to 3189 1 Appraisal 4/89 5 26 ED,EC,IMP,TEX through Board Approval Supervision 1 2-3/90 4 21 EC,ED,T.ED,PLA Supervision 2 7/90 1 15 IMP Supervision 3 10-11/90 1 10 ED 2 Supervision 4 6/91 1 12 ED 2 _ _ - -- . Supervision 5 2/92 2 11 EC, T.ED 2 2 Supervision 6 2-3/92 4 21 ED,PLA,AR,ED 2 1 PMP, CLC Supervision 7 6/92 2 7 ED,FA 2 1 PP, CLC Supervision 8 10- 11/92 6 16 ED,PLA,H.ED,T.E 2 1 PP, CLC D,AR Supervision 9 7/93 7 15 ED,PLA,H.ED, 2 1 PP, CLC AR,IMP,FA Supervision 10 11-12/93 6 20 ED,H.ED, 2 2 PMP, PP, CLC IMP,AR,T.ED,EC ___ ___ Supervision 11 3/94 2 12 ED,H.ED 2 2 pp Supervision 12 4/94 1 15 CO S S PP Supervision 13 6-7/94 3 10 ED,IMP 5 S pp Supervision 14 9-10/94 5 16 ED,H.ED,IMP, S 5 PP MA Supervision 15 1-2/95 5 17 ED,IMP,MA,AR U S PMP, PP Supervision 16 5-6/95 3 14 ED,T.ED S 5 PMP, PP Supervision 17 10/95 1 8 TEX S S PMP, PP, AP Supervision 18 11-12/95 3 14 ED,H.ED,AR S S PMP, PP, AF Supervision 19 4-5/96 3 16 ED,H.ED,IMP S S PMP, PP, AF Supervision 20 11-12/96 6 28 ED,H.ED,IMP,EC S S PMP, PP Supervision 21 3-4/97 6 20 ED,H.ED,IMP,EC S S Supervision 22 6-7/97 7 16 ED, H. ED, S S __________ _______ _______ EC,IMP,TEX _ Supervision 23 10-11/97 4 16 ED, H.ED, ECIMP S S Completion 5-6/98 3 29 ED, H.ED, IMP S S Key to specialized staff skills ED = Education Specialist EC = Economist H.ED = Higher Education Specialist IMP = Implementation Specialist T.ED = Technical Education Specialist PLA = Education Planner AR = Architect FA = Financial analyst CO Country Officer MA Education Management Specialist TEX = Textbook Specialist  Page 42 Statistical Annex Ke t eformance rati 1 = Problem Free 2 = Modert Problems 3 = Major Problems 4 = Major Problems - Corrective acfion to be taken. HS = Highly Satisfactory HU = Highly Satisfactory NR = Not Rated U = Unsatisfactory S = Satisfactory Ke!L tooblems AF Ke Availability of fr s |PFP = Financial performance PP = Procurement progress CLC = Compliance with legal covenants PDO = Project Development Objectives SP = Studies progress PMP = Project management performaice 0 = Other (*)  ANNEX A AIDE-MEMOIRE  REPUBLIQUE DE MADAGASCAR Aide-memoire de la mission du secteur de 1'ducation de la Banque mondiale sur la supervision du Credit de Renforcement du Secteur Educatif (CRESED, Crdit 2094-MAG) du 2 au 29 juin 1998 1. Une mission du secteur de I'ducation de la Banque mondiale I a s6journe a Madagascar du 2 au 29 juin 1998 dans le but de faire le point sur I'achevement des activites financees par le Credit de Renforcement du Secteur Educatif (CRESED, Credit 2094-MAG) dont la date de cl6ture est le 30 juin 1998. La mission tient a remercier toutes les personnes qu'elle a rencontrees pour leur accueil chaleureux et leur collaboration efficace. 2. Comme il s'agit de la derniere mission de supervision, le pr6sent Aide-m6moire a pour objet de dresser un bilan provisoire des principales realisations du projet par rapport aux objectifs convenus lors de son approbation, de son impact actuel et previsible sur le systeme educatif, et des enseignements tires de sa mise en oeuvre. 3. Au cours de son sej our, la mission a travaille en etroite collaboration avec le Bureau Projet Education (BPE) et les directions et services responsables de la mise en oeuvre d'activites financees par le CRESED. En particulier, elle a rencontre les cadres du Ministere de l'Enseignement Secondaire et de 'Education de Base (MINESEB), ainsi que les Directeurs et responsables de composantes au sein du Ministere de l'Enseignement Superieur (MINESUP) et de l'Institut Superieur de Technologie (IST) d'Antananarivo. La mission a sejoume a Tulear du 7 au 9 juin 1998, et a Tamatave du 14 au 16 juin. Ces visites ont permis d'etablir un bilan des realisations sur le terrain, en collaboration etroite avec les cadres des Directions Inter-Regionales de l'Enseignement Secondaire et de I'Education de Base (DIRESEB) et les autorites des etablissements d'enseignement superieur. La mission a examine le rapport d'audit des comptes du Projet pour l'annee financiere 1997. Enfin, le BPE et la mission sont convenus d'un plan de travail pour la fermeture des comptes du projet, la retrocession des equipements et materiels du Projet au CRESED II, et la preparation d'un rapport d'achevement du Projet. La mission 6tait composee de Messieurs Daniel Viens, chef de mission, James Lynch, specialiste en enseignement superieur, et Pierre Mersier, specialiste en formation professionnelle et execution des projets.  Aide-Memoire Page 2 Bilan Provisoire 4. S'appuyant sur le premier Programme National d'Amelioration de I'Education (PNAE I) approuve par le Gouvernement en 1988, le CRESED avait pour but d'assister la mise en oeuvre de reformes institutionnelles, administratives et pedagogiques a tous les niveaux d'enseignement. Conscientes de la chute alarmante des effectifs d'elves aux niveaux primaire et secondaire, des augmentations incontr6lees d'effectifs d'etudiants dans les Universit6s publiques, de l'urgence d'ameliorer l'efficacite de I'administration et de la gestion des ministeres responsables de 1'education, et d'une n,cessaire redynamisation des programmes d'enseignement, de la formation des maitres et de la dotation en manuels scolaires, les autorites du Gouvernement s'etaient engagees sur une batterie de mesures et de programmes d'action consignes dans la Lettre de politique de ckveloppement du secteur. 5. Depuis la mise en vigueur du Credit le 27 juillet 1990, le bilan des principales realisations du CRESED inclue: (a) la creation d'une entite responsable de l'elaboration des curricula aux niveaux primaire et secondaire -- l'Unite d'Etudes et de Recherches P6dagogiques (UERP) -- qui a concu, teste et publie de nouveaux programmes d'enseignement aux niveaux primaire et secondaire, des manuels scolaires et des guides pedagogiques destines aux enseignants; (b) la mise sur pied d'une cellule specialisee -- la Cellule de Distribution des Auxiliaires P6dagogiques (CDAP) -- qui a coordonne le colisage et la distribution de plus de 2,1 millions de manuels scolaires, d'ouvrages de reference et d'auxiliaires d'enseignement (cartes et planches) dans toutes les Ecoles Primaires Publiques (plus de 11.500 EPP fonctionnelles), ainsi que dans les Colleges d'Enseignement General (plus de 700 CEG); (c) la redynamisation des six Ecoles Normales de Niveau I (une EN I dans chaque Province de Madagascar) et d'une Ecole Normale de Niveau II (F'actuel MNFP) qui accueillent actuellement quelque 900 616ves-instituteurs, enseignants des colleges, conseillers pedagogiques et inspecteurs du niveau primaire dans des programmes de formation qui ont e entierement revises; (d) la redynamisation de 16 centres de perfectionnement continu du personnel enseignant (CRPP) qui ont organise annuellement environ 10 journees de formation continue a l'intention des instituteurs de l'enseignement primaire., des enseignants du niveau secondaire et des encadreurs pedagogiques; (e) le lancement d'une nouvelle approche pragmatique visant l'amelioration de l'efficacite de l'ecole primaire -- le Programme de Renforcement et d'Appui a la Gestion Administrative et Pedagogique (PRAGAP) -- qui a permis d'associer les communaut6s locales (parents, enseignants, directeurs cd'cole et responsables de la societe civile) dans la r6alisation de plus de 2.500 contrats-ecole (ou 22% des ecoles publiques fonctionnelles) cibles sur 20 Circonscriptions Scolaires (CiSco) (parmi les 112) dans les six provinces de Madagascar; (f) la realisation d'6tudes sur la gestion du MINESEB qui ont permis de redefinir les missions, attributions, r6les et responsabilites des principaux gestionnaires et des acteurs dans une perspective coh&ente de decentralisation et de responsabilisation a  Aide-Memoire Page 3 tous les niveaux, et de renforcer les bases de donnees sur les effectifs d'61eves, d'enseignants et de personnels administratifs; (g) la r6alisation d' etudes, la formation sur le tas et le renforcement des capacites de planification scolaire dans les deux ministeres responsables de 1'education. Ces activites ont permis de cerner les problemes lies a la scolarisation, de mettre en oeuvre des outils de gestion et de renforcer les capacites de collecte et de mise a jour des donnees a tous les niveaux administratifs, et de publier des annuaires statistiques annuels. Le Projet a egalement permis de former des cadres de 1' education sur l'elaboration du Programme des Depenses Publiques et du Programme d'Investissement Public (PIP); (h) la creation de deux nouvelles institutions d'enseignement superieur -- les Instituts Superieurs de Technologie (IST) d'Antananarivo et d'Antsiranana -- qui ont developpe des programmes de formation superieure de courte duree (moins de 2 ans), en reponse directe aux besoins des entreprises; le projet a egalement apporte une assistance a la creation du Technop6le de l'Universite de Tamatave, en collaboration etroite avec d'autres bailleurs de fonds; (i) la realisation d'etudes et la mise sur pied de tables de concertation au niveau de 1'enseignement superieur qui ont pernis le montage d'un Plan directeur de developpement de l'enseignement supbrieur et qui ont soutenu les reformes institutionnelles et les programmes d'assainissement des universites publiques; et (j) le soutien aux travaux des Commissions interministerielle et intersectorielle qui ont prepare, en collaboration etroite avec les trois ministeres techniques responsables de l'education et de la formation (MINESEB, MINESUP et METFP 2) et les ministeres a vocation economique, un second Programme National d'Amelioration de l'Education et de la Formation -- le PNAE II -- adopte par le Gouvernement en decembre 1997. Impact du Projet 6. Les principaux impacts du Projet sur l'evolution du systeme d'education peuvent etre examines par rapport aux dimensions suivantes: (a) la capacite d'accroitre la participation des enfants a la scolarisation de base mesuree par Les taux d' admission des enfants en premiere annee d'enseignement et les taux de retention de ces enfants au cours du cycle primaire; (b) I'efficacit6 inteme des etablissements d'enseignement primaire et secondaire mesuree par 1'evolution des taux de promotion, de redoublement et d'abandon des eleves; (c) l'efficacit6 interne et externe des etablissements d'enseignement superieur mesuree par les cofits de fornation et les taux de placement des sortants des IST; (d) le renforcement de la gestion administrative et pedagogique mesuree par l'appropriation de l'ecole primaire par les acteurs de la communaute, et la presence effective des enseignants a 1'ecole et leur encadrement; (e) l'efficacite du systeme dans la gestion des ressources publiques mesuree par l'evolution de la part des depenses publiques et privees en education, le ciblage des depenses publiques en reponse aux objectifs du Gouvernement et l'efficacite de l'utilisation des ressources; et (f) la capacite du systeme d'education de tirer des enseignements, de s'adapter constamment, de 2 Le Ministere de 1'Enseignement Technique et de la Formation Professionnelle a egalement ete appuyd par le Projet PREFTEC (Cr. 2382-MAG) qui a demarre en 1992.  Aide-Memoire Page 4 prioriser ses programmes d'actions et de les mettre en oeuvre. Les paragraphes qui suivent presentent des el6ments provisoires d'6valuation d'impact sur chacune de ces dimensions. 7. L'accroissement de la participation des enfants a 1'ecole constituait l'un des principaux objectifs du PNAE I. La Lettre de politique de developpement enon,ait les cibles suivantes: (a) 1'augmentation des nouveaux entrants au niveau. primaire de 4% par an; et (b) l'augmentation des nouveaux entrants au niveau secondaire de 2% (Niveau II) et 1% (Niveau 111) par an. L'examen des annuaires statistiques de 1'education fait ressortir les constats suivants (Annexe 1). La baisse des effectifs d'eleves aux niveaux primaire et secondaire qui a ete constatee depuis le milieu des annees 1980 s'est maintenue jusqu'a 1993. Depuis, une legere reprise a 6te observee dans les taux d'inscription de nouveaux entrants en premiere annre de l'enseignement primaire et de l'enseignement secondaire. Dans le cadre du PRAGAP, la participation effective des communautes de base dans la realisation des contrats-ecole, les visites regulieres de suivi effectuees par les agents locaux du MI4NESEB et 1'affectation et le redeploiement des enseignants aux ecoles primaire publiques ont eu un impact imm6diat sur l'accroissement des effectifs d'el&ves i(plus de 15%). De plus, les distributions successives de manuels d'enseignement en langue malgache dans les matieres de base (qui n'existaient pas avant 1993) ont egalement eu un impact positif sur la motivation des enseignants, la qualite des enseignements et la participation des enfants a l'ecole. Enfin, on a constate que la fourniture de cahiers, crayons et autres materiels scolaires A tous les enfants scolarises dans le cadre de l'operation "filet de securite" lancee en 1995-96 (sur financement de l'E-tat) a eu un impact immediat sur l'augmentation des nouveaux inscrits A l'ecole primaire. 8. L'amelioration de I'efficacite interne des etablissements publics devait se traduire, dans la Lettre de politique, par la reduction graduelle des taux de redoublement au niveau primaire de 40% en 1989 a 10% en 1994. A l'instar de l'evolution des effectifs d'elves, les premiers signes d' amelioration des taux de redoublement et d'abandon n'ont ete observes qu'a partir de 1993, avec une reprise timide et de fortes variations regionales et sous- regionales. Par contre, l'evolution des taux de succes aux examens de fin de cycle primaire montre une tendance a la hausse depuis 1993-94. Alors que l'ecole primaire accueille une proportion plus grande d'enfants, elle eprouve encore de nombreuses difficult6s a maintenir ces enfants A 1'ecole et, surtout, a assurer le succes des apprentissages. Il demeure inacceptable que pres de 40 pour-cent des eleves redoublent les premieres classes du primaire, que le taux de succes au baccalaureat n'atteigne que 20 ou 30 pour-cent, et que plus de 80 pour-cent des etudiants inscrits en premiere annee des Facult6s de Lettres et de Sciences A l'Universit6 echouent alors qu'ils repr6sentent un pourcentage infime d'une cohorte d'enfants qui entrent au primaire. L'introduction de nouveaux programmes d'enseignement, l'apport de materiels pedagogiques d'appui, les formations continues des enseignants et l'encadrement plus serre des Chefs des Zones Administratives et Pedagogiques (Chefs ZAP) et des autres groupes d'encadreurs (assistants et conseillers p6dagogiques) presentent certes une batterie de conditions n6cessaires A l'amelioration des enseignements et des apprentissages chez les enfants. Mais ces conditions demeurent encore insuffisantes pour renverser des taux d'echec tres eleves. Les perspectives d'amelioration testees sous le CRESED doivent encore etre renforc6es, incluant entre autres les dimensions qualitatives du contrat-ecole, une volonte affirmee de centrer les efforts de l1'cole sur  Aide-Memoire Page 5 1' amelioration de I' apprentissage des enfants, et des ressources financieres consequentes et mieux utilisees. Par contre, l'ecole doit aussi lutter avec des conditions externes difficiles: la pauvrete des menages, la malnutrition, I'absence des enfants qui doivent participer aux travaux agricoles et les difficultes de communication en saison des pluies. 9. L'efficacite externe des etablissements d'enseignement superieur etait visee a travers la creation d'un nouveau type d'etablissement, les IST, qui, par effet de demonstration, allaient entrainer une reforme des programmes, une redefinition de leur finalite, et un partenariat etroit avec le monde professionnel. Les deux IST ont demontre, avec des taux d'insertion sur le marche du travail de plus de 80 pour-cent de leurs sortants, que des programmes bien cibles sur les besoins des entreprises, des enseignements pratiques a des etudiants admis sur concours, et la cooperation etroite avec les employeurs dans la definition des enseignements et l'organisation de stages pratiques, peuvent ameliorer l'efficacite exteme et inteme des etablissements d'enseignement superieur. Alors que les coats unitaires annuels de formation sont plus eleves que ceux des facultes traditionnelles (en raison notamment des petits groupes d'etudiants et d'un meilleur encadrement), les couts totaux de production d'un dipl6me qui s'insere rapidement sur le marche du travail sont considerablement reduits. Egalement, l'introduction du concept des IST a donne naissance a la creation de nombreux programmes de formation professionnalisante au sein des 6coles, instituts et facultes des Universites publiques. La perennisation des deux IST demeure cependant preoccupante. En effet, il appartient au Ministere responsable de 1'enseignement superieur (NINESUP) de doter ces etablissements de budgets de fonctionnement adequats, de financer sur les fonds propres du Gouvernement des equipements qui n'ont pu &re achetes sur financement exteme 3, de recibler certaines formations, en particulier en bureautique, qui sont par ailleurs offertes par des dtablissements priv*s, et de developper des formations continues. 10. Le renforcement de la gestion administrative et pedagogique du ministere responsable de l'enseignement primaire et secondaire (MINESEB) constituait la premiere composante du Projet. Cette composante comportait deux grands types d'activites. D'une part, il s'agissait de renforcer les services de planification du ministere, en particulier en ce qui concerne la carte scolaire et la preparation des budgets. D'autre part, il etait prevu de mettre en oeuvre une reorganisation du ministere. Les travaux de reorganisation ont demarr6 en 1990 avec le lancement d'une etude sur la gestion, dont le rapport final a ete produit et discute avec les autorites debut 1992. Ce rapport recommandait, entre autres, une restructuration du Secretariat General, la creation d'une Direction Generale, une refonte des responsabilites des Directions centrales, et la reconfiguration des directions provinciales et des administrations locales. Il proposait egalement une batterie de mesures pour renforcer la gestion du personnel, incluant la definition de r6les et responsabilites de chaque poste, le renforcement du r6le de la direction de l'ecole, et une gestion par poste budgetaire. Alors que la reorganisation du MINESEB n'a pas eu de suivi, les travaux de diagnostic du systeme, d'analyse des r6les et responsabilites, de montage de bases de donnees sur les personnels, et 3 En raison de la suspension des decaissements sur le Credit de l'OPEP en cours de realisation du projet, des equipements et des materiels d'une valeur estimee A 3,3 milliards FMG n'ont pu etre achetes avant F'achevement du Credit.  Aide-Memoire Page 6 de gestion previsionnelle des effectifs ont neanmoins servi de base a la mise en oeuvre du PRAGAP. 11. Le PRAGAP est ne de deux constats majeurs. D'une part, les efforts investis entre 1992 et 1993 pour restructurer et renforcer la gestion au niveau central n'ont pas eu de suivi. Par exemple, les operations de redeploiement d'enseignants en surnombre dans la capitale vers les provinces et les localites ou il y avait un besoin r6el ont et rapidement stopp6es par des decisions des plus hautes autorites de I'Etat. D'autre part, suite a une etude sectorielle sur les facteurs de 1'efficacit6 de 1'ecole, il est apparu urgent et faisable d'adopter une strategie d'amelioration de la qualit6 des enseignements a la base, c'est-a-dire en developpant un partenariat etroit entre la communaute de base et les autorites locales du MINESEB. Ainsi, les objectifs initiaux du PRAGAP visaient a regagner la confiance des populations locales vis-a-vis de leur ecole ("communale") et a mobiliser les parents d'eleves, le directeur, les enseignants et les autorites locales dans la r6alisation de contrats-6cole. Le programme a demarre en 1994 dans deux CiSco pilotes de la Province de Mahajanga, avant d'etre 6largi en 1995 a huit CiSco additionnelles de Mahajanga et a deux CiSco dans chacune des cinq autres provinces. S'appuyant sur des 6quipes de cadres a tous les niveaux -- une Equipe Centrale de Gestion (ECG) au sein du MINESEB, des Equipes Provinciales de Gestion (EPG) a la DIRESEB, des Equipes Locales de Gestion (ELG) dans les CiSco, et un Comite Local de Pilotage (CLP) a l'ecole -- le PRAGAP a cree une synergie caracterisee par une approche nouvelle "centree sur l'elkve, basee sur l'ecole, et ascendante". L'ECG a produit et valide de nouvelles d6finitions de missions, attributions, r6les et responsabilites (MARR) qui presentent les bases d'une approche decentralisee. Les EPG et les ELG ont par ailleurs assist& les communautes locales de quelque 2.500 EPP dans 20 CiSco a rehabiliter le domaine scolaire et a redeployer des enseignants. Deux evaluations externes du PRAGAP, l'une en septembre 1997 et l'autre en mai 1998, ont d6montre que cette approche a produit des resultats positifs et qu'elle offre une opportunite reelle d'arnelioration de la qualite et des apprentissages. 12. La Lettre de politique de developpement reconnaissait l'urgence de mieux gerer les ressources financieres publiques et 6noncait des objectifs d'accroissement de la part des depenses publiques allouees a l'Fducation, de reallocation en faveur de l'enseignement de base et d'amelioration de l'efficacite de l'utilisation de ces ressources. Or, les resultats enregistres lors des revues annuelles des depenses publiques sont peu encourageants et commandent une n6cessaire vigilance sur l'evolution des depenses. Ainsi. la revue des d6penses publiques de 19984 notait, entre 1995 et 1997, une baisse de la part des depenses publiques en education par rapport au PIB (de 1,7 a 1,5%), une baisse de la part des depenses publiques en education par rapport aux d6penses courantes du Gouvemement (de 28,5 a 24,1%), une baisse de la part des depenses hors-solde pour l'6ducation (de 41,5 a 38,8%) au profit d'une hausse pour l'enseignement superieur (de 39,3 a 44,9%), et, enfin, le triplement du budget de la solde pour l'enseignement sup6rieur alors mrnee que les effectifs d'etudiants se contractaient. Par contre, les operations de filet de securit6 (1995) et l'introduction de nouvelles allocations budgetaires pour les depenses de redeploiement d'enseignants et pour Voir la "Contribution de la mission du secteur de l'education a I'Aide-mremoire de la Revue des Depenses Publiques" en date du 29 octobre 1997.  Aide-Memoire Page 7 les budgets de fonctionnement des etablissements, traduisent bien la volonte du Gouvernement d'accompagner la responsabilisation des communautes de base et de 1'ecole. De meme, la creation des conseils d'administration independants des Universites publiques et les obligations de rendre des comptes sur la gestion de leurs fonds ont permis de responsabiliser les acteurs sur I'efficacite de la gestion des ressources publiques limitees; il est A noter toutefois que les Universites publiques ont continue d'accumuler des deficits courants depuis 1992 jusqu'a 1997. Enfin, la preparation du PNAE II et les necessaires arbitrages entre ministeres sectoriels, niveaux d' education et categories de depenses ont foumi une occasion de redefinir le r6le de l'Etat dans le secteur, ses priorites d'intervention et l'obligation de rendre des comptes. 13. Le systeme d'education est-il mieux en mesure aujourd'hui de tirer des enseignements et de s'adapter aux changements necessaires? D'une facon generale, la reponse est positive. La priorite affichee A 1'enseignement primaire a ete reconnue explicitement par les autorit6s et les responsables de tous les ordres d'enseignement. L'approche ascendante preconisee par le PNAE II tire ses fondements des experiences lancees et appuyees par le CRESED, en particulier dans le PRAGAP et le renforcement des capacites locales de gestion et de planification. Les difficultes rencontrees dans 1' affectation et le redeploiement d'enseignants dans les etablissements publics afin d'assurer une presence effective des maitres A l'ecole ont trace la voie et prepare le terrain de la mise en oeuvre de mesures sensibles, mais essentielles: gerer les nouveaux recrutements d'enseignants en fonction des besoins reels des ecoles en milieu rural, et lier le contrat de travail au lieu d'affectation; redeployer les personnels plethoriques des administrations provinciales et des villes vers les etablissements des centres peripheriques, puis des regions rurales,; l'importance de rapprocher le paiement des salaires des enseignants du lieu de 1'ecole afin de minimiser les absences prolongees et d'associer la communaute A la gestion de la presence effective des enseignants; et la preparation, a terme, de la gestion par postes budgetaires attaches A l'etablissement. L'implication de la communaute locale dans des contrats- programme d'ecole, quant a elle, a ouvert la voie a un partage des responsabilites de financement et de gestion ou le MINESEB apporte un appui financier reel en complement de la contribution de la communaute. Alors que les operations physiques de rehabilitation d'ecoles et de foumitures de livres et de tables-bancs ont ete relativement faciles A mettre en oeuvre, elles ont aussi demontre toute la complexite de s'attaquer a la qualite des apprentissages des eleves dans la salle de- classe. Le renforcement des structures d'encadrement pedagogique, de la formation des maitres et du perfectionnement continu des enseignants doivent 8tre maintenant mis a contribution pour renforcer les resultats d'apprentissage. Enfin, la coordination interne des programmes et activites du PNAE, ainsi que la coordination des actions des bailleurs de fonds doivent 8tre renforcees. Principaux enseignements a tirer et defis A relever 14. L'experience de la mise en oeuvre du CRESED et de la preparation du PNAE II a permis de tirer les enseignements suivants. 15. Une reforme d'un systeme d'enseignement est un processus long et complexe, qui commande une approche pragmatique, guidee par quelques objectifs strategiques:  AideA-Memoire Page 8 (a) I'approche qui s'est degag6e des resultats (et des frustrations) de la mise en oeuvre du CRESED -- une strat6gie centree sur 1'elve, basee sur /l'eole ei adoptant une approche ascendante -- resume pleinement les trois pr incipes fondamentaux qui ont guid6 l'evolution du Projet et l'elaboration du PNAE ;I; (b) l'elve doit 6tre au centre de toutes les activites de leducation: qu'il s'agisse des programmes d'enseignement, des auxiliaires p6idagogiques, des strategies pedagogiques de l'enseignant en classe, de la gestion de 1'ecole ou des services d'appui du ministere responsable, toutes les actions doivent converger vers l'apprentissage chez 1'61lve qui constitue la finalite premi6re de I'education; (c) 1'ecole est un lieu privilegie oiu I'apprentissage peut 6tre ameliore: la participation active des parents, des eleves, des enseignants, de la dlirection de l'etablissement et des autorites locales doit etre recherchee et soutenue, afin que les premiers acteurs responsables identifient et agissent sur les facteurs d'amnelioration de I'apprentissage qu'ils maitrisent; et (d) les politiques et les directives doivent emaner et tenir compte de la realit6 des ecoles: 1'experience du terrain doit guider le choix des politiques, des normes a appliquer et de la volont6 des autorites locales de s' engager a leur realisation. 16. I1 doit exister un dialogue constant entre le terrain et la politique du secteur: (a) le premier eclaire la pertinence, la faisabilite et le succes de mesures et d'actions specifiques; (b) la seconde s'appuie sur des resultats tangibles et la pression du terrain pour justifier une reorientation ou des decisions a un niveau superieur., (c) l'application de la politique et ses adaptations sur le terrain renforcent la legitimite des acteurs du terrain et l'impact de leurs actions; et (d) fort des resultats, les decideurs politiques peuvent a leur tour rechercher un consensus sur des decisions plus generales, complexes et sensibles. 17. Plusieurs illustrations concretes peuvent &re degagees de 1'experience du CRESED et des defis qui se posent a la mise en oeuvre du CRESED II. Parmi celles-ci, retenons: le recrutement et l'affectation des enseignants a l'ecole; le perfectionnement continu des enseignants; la responsabilisation de la direction de 1'etablissement et des autorites locales; la mobilisation de ressources financieres (de I'association des parents d'elves, de la cooperative scolaire, du budget de l'Etat et des bailleurs de fionds) pour la realisation du contrat-ecole, et l'amelioration des resultats de l'apprentissage. 18. A titre d'exemple, l'analyse du processus de recrutement et d'affectation des enseignants a 1'ecole est revelateur. Les tentatives de redeploiement d'enseignants en sumombre qui ont &te amorcees au niveau central n'ont pas eu de suivi. Par contre, les premieres descentes sur le terrain dans le cadre du PRAGAP ont clairement demontre les deficits, en particulier dans les milieux ruraux, ou les excedents dans chaque ecole. De plus, les enseignants eux-memes ont 6voque qu'ils etaient peu motiv6s au redeploiement en raison notamment des retards d'avancement de carriere et des difficultes a toucher leur salaire en zones rurales eloignees. Conscientes de ces problemes, les autorites provinciales et centrales sont convenues de regulariser les dossiers des agents de l'Etat et, d'experimenter des formules  Aide-Memoire Page 9 de rapprochement de paiement de la solde des fonctionnaires. Les premieres decisions de redeploiement A l'interieur de la CiSco ou de la Province, par ailleurs, se sont rapidement heurt6es A des comportements dysfonctionnels et A la lourdeur de I'administration de la fonction publique (par exemple, les decisions qui doivent etre signees au ministere central et qui peuvent etre revoquees par une autorite de niveau superieur). Ces problemes ont A leur tour mobilise les decideurs politiques a questionner l'efficacite du systeme actuel et A rechercher, par etapes, des solutions intermediaires telles: l'etablissement d'une base de donnees fiables sur les personnels de l'Etat et leur affectation; l'appui des autorites centrales aux decisions prises aux niveaux de l'administration provinciale ou de la CiSco; la decentralisation effective des decisions de recrutement de nouveaux enseignants au niveau de la CiSco sur la base des besoins reels en milieu rural; la mise sur pied d'experiences pilotes de paiements de salaires au niveau local, associant le Conseil d'ecole A des sanctions eventuelles en cas d'absences non-motivees; et, a terme, la mise sur pied d'une gestion par poste budgetaire. L'ach6vement des activites du Projet 19. La mission a revu en detail le plan de travail propose par le BPE pour l'achbvement des activites du Projet. Le dernier rapport d'activites montre que le Cr6dit est entierement engage, que les decaissements cumulatifs atteignent 98 pour-cent en date de debut juin, que lFach6vement des activites en cours est prevu au plus tard A la fm juin 1998, et que les derniers decaissements pour le paiement des factures auront 6te effectues au plus tard le 15 septembre 1998. 20. Lors des rencontres-synthese avec Messieurs les Ministres du M1NESEB et du MINESUP, il a et convenu que: (a) le BPE actualisera l'inventaire exhaustif de tous les biens et 6quipements acquis par le projet au plus tard A la fin aofut 1998; (b) les biens et 6quipements du BPE seront transferes progressivement au Bureau de Coordination du Projet CRESED II et en totalite au plus tard a la mi-septembre 1998; et (c) la fermeture des comptes et la passation de services seront effectues au plus tard le 15 septembre 1998. 21. Concemant le rapport d'achevement du projet, le BPE et la mission ont revu les principales activites qui doivent etre r6alisees par le BPE, le Gouvernement et la Banque mondiale. I1 a ete convenu que: (a) le consultant de la Banque responsable de la preparation du rapport, Monsieur Paul Ge1i, etablira avec le BPE un programme de travail et un calendrier detaille lors de son sejour pr6vu courant juillet 1998; (b) le BPE preparera une ebauche du rapport d'achevement de la partie malgache avant la fin aofit 1998; (c) le consultant effectuera une visite de travail avant fin septembre 1998 dont l'objectif sera de finaliser une premiere ebauche du rapport d'achevement incluant les 6valuations du Gouvernement et de la Banque mondiale, ainsi que les annexes techniques; et (d) apres revision A Washington, une deuxieme ebauche complete sera transmise au Gouvemement de Madagascar debut novembre 1998, pour avis et commentaires, avant sa transmission au Conseil d'Administration de la Banque fin decembre 1998. 22. Une copie du rapport d'audit des comptes du Credit 2094-MAG pour l'ann6e financi6re termin6e le 31 decembre 1997 a ete transmise a la mission le 22 juin 1998. La  Aide-Memoire Page 10 mission a note l'importance de mettre a jour l'inventaire physique complet des infrastructures, biens et equipements acquis sous le Projet. Elle a indique que des commentaires detailles sur ce rapport seront transmis par le siege de la Banque mondiale a Washington avant fin juillet 1998. En ce qui conceme I'audit des comptes du projet pour I'ann6e financiere debutant le ler janvier 1998, it a ete convenu que le BPE transmettra le dernier rapport d'audit au plus tard le 30 septembre 1998, apres la ferneture des comptes du Credit. 23. Enfin, la mission a souligne la n6cessite, pour le Gouvernement, de preparer un plan d'action pour la perennisation des investissements et programmes inities sous le CRESED. En particulier, la mission a attire I'attention des autorites sur: (a) la prise en charge effective des depenses liees a la formation initiale et continue des enseignants, de I'UERP et des IST sous le budget de l'Etat; (b) la necessite de prevoir des credits complementaires d'investissement pour I'acquisition de materiels pedagogiques et d'equipements, estimes a environ 3,3 milliards FMG, qui n'ont pu 6tre achet6s dans le cadre du Credit de l'OPEP, en raison de la suspension des decaissements; et (c) la prise en charge de la suite des operations PRAGAP dans les 20 CiSco visees par le CRESED afin d'achever les contrats d'ecole signes et en cours, et de poursuivre les contrats-programme visant I'aamnlioration de la qualite. Antananarivo, le 25 juin 1998. Annexe  Mmnexe I REPUBLIQUE DE MADAGASCAR EVOLUTION DE L' ENSEIGNEMENT PRIMAIRE, SECONDAIRE ETUNIVERSITAIRE (1987-1997) Nivem I Indicatenrs 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 NIVEAU I (PRIMAIRE) Effetifd'dlivffl 1,487,725 1,534,142 1,512,322 1,570,721 1,496,845 1,490,317 1,504,668 1,511,408 1,638,187 1,752,851 1,921,087 dont Prive 224,681 237,036 252,317 278,812 325,579 322,015 318,593 337,812 337,154 371,303 430,978 (% priv-'tota) 15% 15% 17% 18% 22% 22% 21% 22% 21% 21% 22% Eleves en llne 547,998 588,850 560,226 598,942 578,689 552,348 554,362 566,412 553,708 686,181 763,177 dont filles 255,429 278,559 268,102 292,007 261,330 266,723 268,210 277,553 262,489 332,879 371,585 (% fmllen/1taD 47% 47% 48% 49% 45% 48% 48% 49% 47% 4984 49% TauxderedoublemertenlleIme 47% 47% 48% 49% 37% 41% 36% 43% 46% NA NA Tanx de redoublemuet en 7& 36% 32% 33% 29% 32% 41% 32% 344% 39% NA NA ktablisshmets 13,449 13,672 13,575 13,791 13,696 13,508 13,624 13,486 10,817 12,338 NA dontPrive 1,797 2,004 2,154 2,159 2,297 2,315 2,463 2,674 2,508 2,508 NA (% prive total) 13% 15% 16% 16% 17% 17% 18% 20% 23% 20% NA Ensegnants 38,361 37,894 38,342 38,933 39,837 38,743 37,676 38,536 37,552 39,775 39,908 dentPrive 4,791 5,756 6,291 6,436 7,372 8,122 8,091 9,880 9,203 11,365 12,018 (% privd'tltal) 12% 15% 16% 17% 19% 21% 21% 26% 25% 29% 30% Aleves insoiib an CEPE 178,675 159,725 152,048 148,642 151,019 120,933 140,911 141,911 149,251 NA NA Ple&sedmi an CEPE 56,543 36,261 72,482 52,025 55,877 38,586 61,714 53,041 76,134 NA NA NIVEAU II (ler CYCLE SECONDAIRE) Effentifd'l6ves 271,054 255,846 259,179 259,989 235,322 243,705 237,909 235,766 241,249 261,713 264,766 dontpried 81,070 78,523 84,557 97,536 90,173 96,887 103,181 105,672 102,086 114,489 117,429 (% privetota) 30% 31% 33% 34% 38% 40% 43% 45% 42% 44% 44% Mlives en6imoe 86,188 74,783 80,892 80,170 74,476 80,200 69,102 69,762 72,433 86,855 75,370 dont f7les 42,828 35,413 39,294 39,314 36,546 38,735 34,440 34,583 36,017 43,118 35,787 (% tDIe/leVtaD 50% 47% 49% 49% 49% 48