China - Long - Term Food Security

SR45523.doc/EA2RS/Nyberg/5/14/97/ep'/mjd CONFIDENTIAL Report No. 16469-CHA CHINA LONG-TERM FOOD SECURITY May 14, 1997 Rural and Social Development Operations Division FILE COPY China and Mongolia Department East Asia and Pacific Regional Office CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (As of February 14, 1997) Currency Name = Renminbi Currency Unit = Yuan (Y) $1.00 = Y 8.3 Y 1.00 = $0.119 FISCAL YEAR January I - December 31 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric System PRINCIPAL ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS USED ABC Ammonium Bicarbonate AIDS Almost Ideal Demand System ARI Agricultural Research Intensity bcm billion cubic meters BTU British Thermal Units CAAS Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences CEROILS Cereal, Oil and Foodstuff Import and Export Company CNAMPC China National Agricultural Means of Production Corporation COFCO China Oil and Foodstuff Corporation DAP Diammonium Phosphate DWT Dead Weight Tons EIA Effectively Irrigated Area FAO Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations FSU Former Soviet Union GB Grain Bureau GDP Gross Domestic Product GGE Government Grain Enterprises GRS Governor's Responsibility System GTAP Global Trade Analysis Project GVAO Gross Value of Agricultural Output Ha Hectare HRS Household Responsibility System IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute IRR Internal Rate of Return ISNAR International Service for National Agricultural Research M&I Municipal and Industrial MOR Ministry of Railways MWR Ministry of Water Resources SAGR State Administration for Grain Reserve SPC State Planning Commission SSB State Statistical Bureau TFP Total Factor Productivity TSP Triple Super Phosphate TVE Township and Village Enterprises WTO World Trade Organization CONTENTS PR EFA C E ......................................................................................................................... iii EX E C U TIV E SU M M ARY ...............................................................................................v 1. IN TR O D U C TIO ..........................................................................................................1 A . Background................................................................................................................. B . O bjectives....................................................................................................................3 2. CONSUMPTION AND DEMAND ..............................................................................4 A . Consum ption ...............................................................................................................4 B . Consum ption Projections ............................................................................................5 3. PAST GROWTH, FUTURE CONSTRAINTS AND SOLUTIONS.........................9 A . A ccounting for Past G row th .....................................................................................10 B . A gricultural Research Investm ent.............................................................................1 C . Fertilizer and Food Security ......................................................................................15 D . Land .......................................................................................................................... 8 E. W ater R esources........................................................................................................21 F. Infrastructure..............................................................................................................22 G . Policies and Institutions ............................................................................................25 4. FO O D SUPPLIE S ........................................................................................................34 A . D om estic G rain Projections ......................................................................................34 B . The International G rain M arket.................................................................................36 5. FOOD BALANCE OPTIONS AND CONCLUSIONS............................................42 A . O ptions......................................................................................................................42 B . D om estic G rain Supplies...........................................................................................43 C . The International M arket...........................................................................................47 ANNEXES Annex 1: D em and .............................................................................................................49 A nnex 2: Crop A griculture ...............................................................................................53 A nnex 3: Fertilizer............................................................................................................65 - ii - Annex 4: Land Resources .................................................................................................77 Annex 5: Water Resources................................................................................................83 Annex 6: Grain Supplies...................................................................................................95 Annex 7: Global Trade Analysis Project Model...............................................................99 Annex 8: Agricultural Growth Decomposition...............................................................112 Statistical A nnex ..............................................................................................................119 TABLES IN TEXT Table 2.1: China Per Capita Food Consumption................................................................4 Table 2.2: Estimated Direct Food Consumption, 2020.......................................................7 Table 2.3: Estimated Cereal Requirements for 2020 ..........................................................7 Table 2.4: Alternative Estimates of Cereal Requirements..................................................8 Table 3.1: Contribution to Crop Production Growth........................................................10 Table 3.2: Agricultural Research Investments and Capacity............................................13 Table 3.3: National Nutrient Balances..............................................................................15 Table 3.4: Average Yield Response to Potash in Balanced Fertilizer Trails....................16 Table 3.5: International Yield Comparisons (1991-94 Average) .....................................19 Table 3.6: Government Grain Procurement and Value, 1995...........................................27 Table 3.7: Cost of Maintaining Wheat Reserves vs. Importing........................................29 Table 4.1: Grain Production Estimates for 2020 ..............................................................35 Table 4.2: World Grain Production and Trade (Annual Average 1992/93-1996/97).......37 Table 4.3: World Grain Prices, Selected Periods 1991-96 ...............................................39 FIGURES IN TEXT Figure 3.1: Index of Gross Output of Agricultural Components......................................10 MAPS Map 1: Water Regions .................................................................................................... 196 Map 2: Irrigation Zones .................................................................................................. 197 - iii - PREFACE 1. The scope of this report was determined in discussions with the Director and staff of the Department of Rural Development, Development Research Center of the State Council (DRC), during a preparatory visit to China in September 1996. The contents are largely based on the findings of a World Bank mission that visited China in November- December 1996. The mission members were Albert Nyberg (EA2RS-mission leader), William Martin (IECIT-trade economist), Peter Glenshaw (IENIM-fertilizer specialist), Wen Poh Ting (Consultant-agronomist), William Sheldrick (Consultant- fertilizer specialist), Christian Bach (Consultant-econometrician), Zhengxuan Zhu (EA2CH-operations officer, agriculture), Biliang Hu (EA2CH--economist). Other World Bank staff and consultants, including Donald Mitchell (IECCP-agricultural economist), Daniel Gunaratnam (EA2RS-irrigation engineer), Gary Kutcher (Consultant-irrigation economist), Jikun Huang (Consultant-agricultural economist), and Wen Chem (Consultant-economist) assisted in preparing background papers on specific subtopics. Bonita Brindley (EAPVP) provided invaluable editorial assistance. 2. The mission worked closely with counterpart staff from the DRC, particularly Chen Xiwen, Yu Bao Ping and Cui Xiao Li, Director and researchers, respectively, Department of Rural Development, who participated in numerous discussions and also provided logistical support. The mission benefited from fruitful discussions with officials from seven government ministries and several other government agencies. Particular recognition is due Professor Mei Fangquan and other staff of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences who provided several hours of useful discussion. 3. The mission also benefited from discussions and exchanges of correspondence with Shenggen Fan, Research Fellow, International Food Policy Research Institute, and Scott Rozelle, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics at Stanford University, particularly on agricultural research issues. Both scholars generously provided time and knowledge of China's agricultural research structure and assisted the mission to better understand the research issues. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. China has the potential to remain food secure over the next 2-3 decades, provided it can overcome obstacles to growth in agriculture and infrastructure and implement several policy reforms. If these measures are successful, domestic food production will largely keep pace with population growth. An important objective of the Government's food policy is to maintain 95 percent grain self-sufficiency. However, the results of this study indicate that greater integration with the international markets would permit food security to be maintained at a lower cost, and cereal self-sufficiency would decline to 90 percent. This conclusion is consistent with the expectation that China will join WTO and will rely more on market forces to signal investment, production and consumption decisions. As a result, both China and China's trading partners will benefit, through reduced production costs and improved farmers' incomes, as each country's comparative advantage is exploited. Also, China will likely attract more foreign direct investment and import more technology. 2. The best estimate of China's 2020 grain demand is about 695 million tons of trade grain (606 million tons of milled equivalent) of which China will likely product 90 percent, and import the balance-about 60 million tons-by 2020. The major grain exporting countries can readily supply this amount without a major price increase, but unless China invests heavily in port facilities and bulk logistical systems, imported grain will be very costly if handled by the current outmoded systems. Producing 90 percent of its grain demand will be difficult and achievable only if China increases its investments in agricultural research, land and water development, and infrastructure; unless this happens, increased imports will be required. But even with large investments, irrigation water is likely to become a serious constraint to continued growth in agriculture. 3. Initiatives required include: * Improve agricultural research and extension-balanced fertilizer application is crucial. * Increase aggregate irrigation water supplies, including reuse, and water transfers from the Yangtze to the Yellow river basin. * Reclaim and develop land to maintain the current stocks of arable and irrigated land. * Develop dedicated-integrated grain and oilseed bulk handling port and rail facilities. - vi - * Reduce government intervention in the cereal and fertilizer sectors, encourage market-determined prices and open competitive marketing and trading regimes. 4. Since the early 1960s, China has made remarkable progress in national food security, although household food security remains a problem for low income groups. Through the late 1960s and 1970s, investments in agricultural research were high and new technologies were produced and adopted. There was a widespread program which rapidly increased fertilizer production and application-an average of 18 percent per year between 1962 and 1980. New crop varieties rapidly increased grain yields-5.1 percent per year on average. Over the same period, irrigated area was expanded by one-third (11 million hectares). Through the late 1980s and early 1990s progress slowed; agricultural research investments declined and growth in fertilizer use diminished. Pricing reform in the mid-1990s brought domestic grain prices to near international levels resulting in record outputs, but marketing reform, allowing greater private participation, was rescinded. 5. "Average" food consumption levels are relatively high; per capita consumption of cereals is among the world's highest, and consumption of vegetables and livestock products is similar to that of countries with much higher income levels. Continued rapid income growth will lead to further dietary changes but, because consumption levels of "superior" foods are already high, these changes will be less than current income elasticities imply. Consumption and Requirement Projections 6. It is difficult to project consumption due to uncertain baseline data, uncertain income elasticity coefficients and income growth rates, and uncertain physical factors, such as feed-to-meat conversion ratios. Within these constraints, future consumption was estimated using a general equilibrium model. Per capita cereal consumption was estimated for 2020 as indicated in the following table. Estimated Cereal Consumption and Total Grain Requirements in 2020 rice /A wheat coarse grain Total Per Capita Consumption (kg) Direct cereal consumption 67.0 51.0 18.0 136.0 Manufactured food consumption 33.4 45.4 22.0 100.8 Total 100.4 96.4 40.0 236.8 Total Requirements (M tons) Direct & processed consumption 142.8 138.7 56.4 337.9 Feed grams 54.9 13.4 168.2 236.5 Seed and losses 11.0 10.2 10.5 31.7 Total 208.6 162.3 234.9 606.0 La paddy equivalent. - vii - 7. The grand total cereal requirements for all uses will be about 695 million tons of unmilled trade grain. This represents only a 50 percent increase over 25 years. Model results indicate that with adequate investments in agriculture and infrastructure domestic production should reach about 636 million tons by 2020, requiring about 60 million tons of wheat and coarse grain imports. Domestic Production 8. Projections of domestic grain production are based on investments in: (a) agricultural research to maintain total factor productivity growth by 1 percent annually (similar to that of the past decade); (b) water resources to expand irrigation water supplies by 0.5 percent annually; (c) land reclamation to maintain the existing cultivated land base; and (d) domestic fertilizer manufacturing, coupled with foreign exchange availability to provide balanced fertilizer supplies. In addition, it was assumed that policies would change to encourage competitive prices and efficiencies. 9. A physical constraints model determined that irrigation water supplies would limit production in the northern corn and wheat areas, but in the more water abundant south, supplies would be sufficient to expand rice production. Consequently, rice will be more than adequate to meet direct consumption needs and will be used increasingly as a feed grain-primarily the hybrid rice varieties which are considered inferior as a food grain. 10. Based on the above assumptions, domestic grain production in 2020 was estimated. The physical constraints model indicated 667 million tons (optimistic), and 636 million tons ("most likely" scenario). 11. The supply-demand balance indicates wheat and coarse grain deficits requiring imports of 18-19 million tons of wheat for food and 41 million tons of coarse grain for feed and industrial uses. International Supplies 12. A survey of unused production capacity in the traditional exporting countries indicates there is ample scope to expand production sufficiently to meet China's incremental requirements as well as that of other importing countries without major price increases. For example, in 1996/97 world grain production expanded by 7.5 percent in response to higher prices but in the five largest exporters, production increased 20 percent, and in Argentina, 40 percent. Long-term estimates of world cereal production range from 2.7 billion tons (Rosegrant-IFARI, 1995) for 2020 to 3.1 billion tons (Alexandratos-FOA, 1997) for 2030. The latter estimated a base case world trade of 400 million tons in 2030, but may be higher if China imports more than 50 million tons. The greater difficulty will be China's capacity to import this quantity of grain. Without large investments in infrastructure (deep-water berths, port handling equipment, transit storage, bulk intermodal grain transfers, and bulk rail equipment) to handle the grain efficiently, very large handling costs will be encountered. - viii - Investments 13. To ensure agricultural productivity, not just production, continues to grow, China must invest more in research. Since 1978, agricultural output has grown at an annual rate of 6.1 percent. Over the entire period, agricultural research contributed more to growth than any other factor. Over the past 15 years, nominal and real research budgets have increased but defacto research budgets have declined by several measures. Unless there is a continuing flow of new technology, agricultural growth will lag the general economy and larger food imports will be required. Optimum investments in agricultural research are difficult to determine, however, it is essential to reverse the declining trend. 14. Water scarcity is the most limiting factor to agricultural growth, therefore, large investments are required to develop additional water supplies-at least 0.5 percent annually-and transfer water from the surplus south to the deficit north. Public investments are needed to improve irrigation water distribution systems, and private investments are needed to improve on-farm use. Irrigation is a residual water user after alternative requirements are met and, in the future, more water will be diverted from agricultural to urban and industrial uses. Wastewater treatment and water recycling is essential to expand irrigation water supplies and produce uncontaminated food supplies. 15. China must import larger quantities of potash and perhaps invest in potash mining in exporting countries. The constraint to balanced fertilizer application may be policies, monopoly market structures or lack of farmer knowledge but it must be quickly identified and resolved. Balanced fertilizer application would immediately increase grain yields by 12 to 15 percent and increase vegetable yields even more. For example, if China had imported and applied another 6.7 million tons of potash in 1995 at an approximate cost of $1.5 billion, the value of incremental grain production would have been over $9.0 billion; and the value of all incremental crop production would have been about $18 billion. 16. China imports 20 to 25 percent of the world traded fertilizer which provides about 30 percent of its nutrient needs. In 1995, about 36 million tons of fertilizers (nutrient content) valued at Y 125 billion were applied to agricultural crops, representing the primary agricultural cash input. But poor application methods combined with low quality fertilizers result in inefficient fertilizer use and unnecessary crop production costs. 17. International joint-ventures in raw material mining and fertilizer manufacture could resolve some of the investment financing constraints, accelerate fertilizer plant construction, and ensure the latest technology is employed. New factories using modern technologies and producing high nutrient content nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers are under construction and others are planned but there are delays. Additional large investments in new plants will be required to provide the incremental fertilizer requirements and gradually replace nitrogen and phosphate imports. - lx - 18. Removing obstacles to nonstate commercial land reclamation would allow large construction-reclamation companies to invest in reclaiming and rehabilitating land. About 18 million additional hectares-barren lands, tidal lands, and wastelands-have potential to be reclaimed. Much of this land is located in remote or arid areas, but about 25 percent of it lies within the water abundant southern provinces. The cost of reclamation varies widely from about Y 15,000 per hectare of barren land to Y 150,000 per hectare of tidal land. 19. Cultivated land per capita is very low but satellite imagery indicates the area under cultivation is 132 million hectares, about 40 percent larger than official records indicate. About 190,000 hectares of agricultural land are lost annually to urbanization, industrialization and infrastructure. These losses are mitigated by land reclamation which averages about 240,000 hectares annually, but the productivity of reclaimed land is less than that of the land lost. 20. Infrastructure investments, although substantial, are insufficient to meet the needs of a dynamic economy. Investment in bulk rail wagons and bulk intermodal transfer systems would improve the capacity to transport grain and would increase rail wagon efficiency by increasing wagon utilization and turnover. The non-grain food subsectors are better served with processing and storage facilities but transport infrastructure is weak. The grain subsector particularly suffers from the lack of bulk handling logistical systems. The volume of domestic grain transported interprovincially will probably double over the next 25 years which will place substantial pressure on the transport capacity. 21. Grain imports are projected to triple over the next 25 years and large investments will be needed in port facilities. Without a large investment in new facilities, massive vessel congestion and demurrage charges will be incurred. China has only one deep-water berth dedicated to bulk grain handling and another under construction. Most grain is now imported on 35,000-40,000 dwt vessels which costs at least $15.00 more per ton in transocean freight charges than 60,000 and 80,000 ton vessels. This could total $600 million in additional transportation costs if imports treble. 22. High throughput transit storage is crucial to intermodal transfers in a bulk grain logistical system. Domestic grain flows between coastal ports now exceed foreign imports and exports; transfers through inland ports have remained stable. All of these flows are in bags requiring slow and costly intermodal transfers. Storage requirements must be carefully calculated to avoid dead storage. Inland waterways are intensively used in other parts of the world as a low-cost transport mode for bulk grain but have been neglected in China as lower rail tariffs favor rail transport. Market-determined freight rates would encourage more efficient transport modes to develop, such as bulk barge carriers. -x- Policies 23. Present grain policies may assist in achieving short-term food security but distort resource efficiency and impede long-term security. The major grain policy objectives are to: (a) maintain 95 percent grain self-sufficiency; (b) increase control over production, pricing and marketing; and (c) continue controlling stocks and international trade. Policy objectives to reduce government control and permit greater reliance on competitive market forces for determining prices would allocate resources more efficiently and improve long-term food security. 24. Policy and commercial activities must be separated. Responsibility for the policy functions should be given to an appropriately budgeted government entity in the full knowledge that it will be loss incurring. (The same entity could be made responsible for state grain reserves.) Commercial government grain enterprises and input suppliers must operate under the same constraints, efficiency incentives, and commercial standards as the nonstate enterprises. Monopoly/monopsony privileges and subsidies currently enjoyed by the Grain Bureaus must be discontinued, countryside procurement restrictions on nonstate enterprises must be relaxed, and noncommercially viable enterprises must be allowed to go bankrupt. 25. If the Government wishes to maintain grain reserves, it should designate a government bureau to manage this, and accept that it will incur losses. However, Government costs could be reduced by procuring and storing less grain. A phased reduction in procurement should be introduced, allowing nonstate enterprises to handle a larger share of the marketed surplus. Other countries, such as Indonesia and India stabilize grain prices by procuring only 20-25 percent of marketed grain. 26. To improve water use efficiency, including irrigation, the Government must increase prices. Low water prices encourage overuse and contribute to low water use efficiency and subsequent scarcity. Immediate price increases should minimally cover short-term supply costs and government should schedule regular increases to eventually cover long-run marginal costs. 27. Government should provide incentives for land reclamation and productivity increases. These may include compensation through cultivation leases or parallel development of nonagricultural land for leasing to commercial-industrial interests. Farmers could be offered longer cultivation rights to ensure they will benefit from terracing, soil amelioration, etc. Also, allowing farmers to lease land to others and from others would permit part-time farmers to lease land to others who were interested in full time farming and increase agricultural output. 28. Discontinue planned trade and single company monopolies. State monopolies plan grain imports and exports far in advance of implementation, and although theoretically, their purpose is to increase market stability, actual transactions have exacerbated fluctuations in cereal supplies. Increased reliance on market forces would improve fertilizer import efficiency and improve grain security. - 1 - 1. INTRODUCTION A. BACKGROUND 1.1 In 1995, a study by (Worldwatch Institute), authored by Lester Brown, forecast that by 2030, China's grain import needs would likely be between 200 and 369 million tons.' The magnitude of Brown's estimates shocked the research community and alarmed Chinese government officials. Also, it provided the impetus for undertaking this study, which addresses China's national long-term food security. This is the latest installment in a series of World Bank studies and reports on China's grain sector.2 1.2 Historically, China has been famine prone and as recently as the late-1950s and early-1960s, famine claimed millions of lives. Therefore, Government officials remain highly concerned about grain balances and they have questioned the reliability of the international market to meet their needs if China should experience large grain shortages. Consequently, officials have pursued grain self-sufficiency policies and a program of large domestic grain storage, a strategy that is costly and inefficient, but ensures China's autonomy in domestic grain availability. Government's distrust of domestic (as well as international), markets has manifested pervasive interventions in grain production, marketing, trade, and consumption. (Noncereal food marketing-fruits, vegetables, and livestock and aquatic products-are relatively free of government intervention and thriving competitive markets have developed.) Grain policy reform and liberalization has been gradual and deliberate; bringing domestic input and output prices to near international price levels and is in the process of consolidating multiple farmgate prices. But marketing reforms incorporating greater private participation have been short-lived, with frequent retrenchment. 1.3 China's growth over the past two decades has been remarkable. But agricultural growth has lagged overall economic growth and within agriculture, production of high value commodities such as livestock and aquatic products, fruits and vegetables has grown at annual rates of 9.0 percent or more, while cereal output grew by only 3.2 percent. 1.4 Rapid income growth has altered food consumption patterns; per capita consumption of grains has declined and consumption of higher quality fruits, vegetables, Brown, Lester R., Who Will Feed China? Wake-up Call for a Small Planet, The Worldwatch Environmental Alert Series, Norton, New York, 1995. 2 See, for example: "China: Managing an Agricultural Transformation, Grain Sector Review," World Bank Report No. 8652-CHA, April 9, 1991 and "China: Grain Distribution and Marketing Project," Staff Appraisal Report No. I1671-CHA, May 17, 1993. -2 - and livestock products has increased, particularly among urban consumers. In this process, overall grain utilization has increased primarily through indirect consumption (i.e., the conversion of grain to livestock products) increasing the importance of feed grains. As incomes grow over the next two decades, consumption will continue to shift expenditures toward higher value food items. But, future consumption growth will likely be less than current income elasticities suggest because Chinese consumption of these "superior" foods is already high relative to income levels. China is the world's largest cereal consuming country. It ranks fifth in per capita cereal consumption and cereals will continue to supply the bulk of calories, as they do in most other countries. However, expected changes in consumption and production structures will require China to rely more on the international market to balance cereal supply and demand. Nevertheless, as a geographically and demographically large and agroclimatically diverse country, China will be substantially self-sufficient in food. To be otherwise would be prohibitively expensive in terms of transport costs. 1.5 These changes in the agricultural economy have interested domestic and international researchers who have assessed China's grain consumption-production balance and derived various estimates of future potential grain import requirements. Consumption estimates have been relatively consistent but production estimates have diverged modestly; consequently, estimates of annual import requirements have fluctuated between 20 and 50 million tons' for the early decades of the 2000s. These estimates were derived from an array of models, from simple production and consumption extrapolation, other country comparisons, and value judgments to more sophisticated partial equilibrium econometric models. 1.6 This paper focuses on how China will avoid National chronic food insecurity, although it also evaluates the storage program and other alternatives to address the problems of transitory food insecurity that may occur through drought or other seasonal calamity. This study reviewed the policies, institutional structures and physical constraints following the reform efforts of the early 1990s. Many of the conclusions agree with those reached in the Bank's 1991 study. Grain production and consumption were evaluated using a worldwide general equilibrium model to capture all indirect and cross-effects of rapid income growth, and international market impacts. The general equilibrium model was supplemented by a physical constraints model; and investment requirements were identified to relieve these constraints. 1.7 Government food policy is concentrated on grain, with the objective of maintaining 95 percent self-sufficiency in cereals. To this end, the central government has retained the international grain trade monopsony and a number of grain production, procurement, and marketing interventions but has delegated "grain balance" 3 See Fan, Shenggen, and Mercedita Agcaoili-Sombilla, "Why Projections on China's Future Food Supply and Demand Differ?" paper presented at a conference on Food and Agriculture in China; Perspectives and Policies, Beijing China, October 7-9, 1996. -3- responsibility to the provincial governments. Grain reserves are the responsibility of the central government, provincial governments and lower jurisdictions. B. OBJECTIVES 1.8 This study attempts to consolidate a discussion of national food security constraints with a particular focus on water constraints and investments to maintain total factor productivity growth of 1.0 percent per year. 1.9 The overall objective of this study was to identify constraints to increased domestic food production and to suggest how China could efficiently achieve food security in the early decades of next century. Government intervention in the grain subsector is the norm with consequent inefficiencies, rigidities, and high fiscal costs. The cereal subsector has been characterized by gradual reform and frequent retrenchment. Reform must be accelerated and greater reliance placed on market forces to guide decisions and to achieve efficiency levels enjoyed in the other food product markets. 1.10 Secondary objectives of the study were to identify and evaluate: * factors that most influenced agricultural growth over the reform period; * physical and technical constraints and solutions to domestic production increases; * policy and institutional constraints to efficient domestic marketing and international trading; * infrastructure constraints to domestic and international marketing; and * the potential of the international market to supply incremental grain. In addition the study sought to model and project food supply and demand for 2020. -4- 2. CONSUMPTION AND DEMAND A. CONSUMPTION 2.1 Food consumption levels in China are difficult to establish because data differs somewhat from source to source. Cross-section data from the State Statistical Bureau's (SSB) annual urban household consumption and expenditure surveys clearly show increasing expenditures on and consumption of all food items. However, the urban survey time series data just as clearly show that per capita consumption of grain has declined over the past decade-when income has been increasing rapidly, implying that grains may have become an "inferior" food. These data also indicate that per capita meat consumption increased only marginally over the same period. Rural household consumption trends are similar but at different levels. 2.2 The FAO uses a balance sheet approach to estimate consumption. This methodology derives consumption as a residual from production and net trade, adjusted for nonfood uses and losses. The differences in SSB and FAO consumption estimates are illustrated in Table 2.1. TABLE 2.1: CHINA PER CAPITA FOOD CONSUMPTION SSB Household Survey FAO Balance Sheet (1992) (1992-94 avg.) -------------------------(kg/capita)---------------------------- Grain (cereals) 235.91 Za 224.2 Pork/Beef/Mutton 20.27 27.7 Poultry 2.35 5.0 Aquatic Products 9.20 13.5 of which Fish 2.00 6.0 Vegetable Oil 6.12 6.4 Vegetables 116.85 86.6 Fruit 38.8Ob 28.5 La Deriving overall grain consumption by combining rural and urban consumption of individual grains provides a national per capita estimate of 216kg. L Urban consumers only. Sources: State Statistical Bureau, China Statistical Yearbook, 1994 (Table 8.6) and FAO, Food Balance Sheets, 1992-94 Average, FAO Statistical Series No. 131, Rome 1996. -5- 2.3 The major differences in the two estimates are in meat products and vegetables; other differences could be attributed to measurement error. The SSB statistics represent average household purchases and do not capture food consumed in restaurants, at work sites or other nonhousehold locations. Also, the SSB data for meat and poultry consumption are inconsistent with production, implying losses that are not credible. Alternatively, the FAO estimates appear to overstate meat production-hence, consumption is also overstated. Scholars have argued that both estimates overstate cereal consumption by as much as 15 percent. 2.4 The balance sheet approach indicates the average Chinese diet is very high in cereal and meat consumption and is more consistent with residents of countries with much higher income levels. Daily caloric consumption at about 2,730 is 95 percent of the level of Malaysians whose per capita GNP levels are 550 percent greater.5 Meat consumption, at 32.7/kg per capita, is essentially the same as in the Republic of Korea where per capita GNP is fifteen-fold that of China. Except for "high fat" pork, which comprises 70 percent of meat consumption, the Chinese diet is relatively healthy. Vegetable oil and sugar consumption is low and vegetable consumption is high compared with other Asian diets. 2.5 Rice and wheat comprise 85 percent of direct cereal consumption, but coarse grains are important in some rural locations, particularly areas unsuited for rice or wheat production. Otherwise, coarse grains are primarily consumed indirectly in the form of meat and livestock products. Currently, grain-to-meat conversion rates are very high (low feed/meat ratio), because most livestock subsist on grazing, green fodders, and household kitchen wastes-except for commercial poultry raised in cages. This results in very efficient "apparent" conversion of grain to meat, but very inefficient production in terms of the time required to produce meat.6 There is potential to expand the production of grass and forage fed livestock, but most future incremental meat production, will require more grain-intensive production modes. B. CONSUMPTION PROJECTIONS 2.6 There have been numerous efforts to estimate rural and urban income, expenditure, and price elasticities of demand for major food commodities. These estimates are very unstable for food grains and cover the entire inelastic range from 0.0 to 1.0, and estimates for livestock products range from about 0.8 to over 2.0. Some instability derives from many years of rationing when consumption was only minimally 4 Garnaut, Ross and Guonan Ma; Grain in China, East Asia Analytical Unit, Dept. of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Canberra, Australia, 1992. s Based on Atlas method, and 230 percent greater if based on Purchasing Power Parity estimates. 6 Pigs produced under "backyard" conditions use very small amounts of grain but require 12-14 months to reach marketable weight, whereas "specialized households" typically market their animals in 6-7 months. -6- influenced by economic factors. But recent estimates derived from sophisticated multiple equation models using 1993-94 data, when rationing was suspended, have been equally unstable. 2.7 A recent study' determined that consumption patterns are influenced by structural as well as economic factors. Residential location (rural, small town, large city, etc.) and age are important determinants of consumption. These factors will become more important as the Chinese population urbanizes and ages. Other studies9 have determined that income elasticities for food staples (grain) declines at higher income levels. And have projected Chinese income elasticities turning negative for grain by 2010. Income elasticity estimates from recent studies are summarized in Annex 1. 2.8 Long-term food consumption projections are difficult not only because of unstable elasticity coefficients but also because data on base consumption levels vary. As a result, projections often imply consumption levels and caloric intake of unrealistic proportions. Projections for indirectly consumed items, such as feed grain, are even more complicated because feed conversion ratios have not been empirically derived and are only based on approximations and estimates. Alternative approaches such as making time- and income-lag comparisons with other nearby Asian countries also are inappropriate given China's extraordinarily high per capita consumption levels and relatively lower income levels. 2.9 Following a literature review and adjusting income elasticities to reflect a quintupling of income between the base year and 2020, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) modelo was estimated using the income elasticities listed below. Utilization coefficients, developed from China's Input-Output Tables," allocated grain production to direct consumption, manufactured/processed products and alternative uses, such as livestock feed. A relatively large proportion of the cereals are consumed as 7 Huang, Jikun and Howarth Bouis, Structural Changes in the Demand for Food in Asia, Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Discussion Paper 11, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, March 1996. 8 Chem, Wen S. The Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, "Personal Communication," 24 February 1997. 9 Huang, Jikun, Scott Rozelle, and Mark W. Rosegrant, "China's Food Economy to the Twenty-First Century: Supply, Demand, and Trade," Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Discussion Paper 19, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, January 1997 10 The GTAP model is a global general equilibrium model maintained at Purdue University by a consortium of research and policy institutions including the World Bank, World Trade Organization, European Commission, OECD, and numerous bilateral agencies. The model and its underlying database are documented in Hertel (1997) and is widely used for analysis of agricultural and general trade policy worldwide. " SSB, Department of National Economy Accounts, "Input-Output Table of China," China Statistical Publishing House, 1987 and 1992. -7- manufactured/processed products. Estimated per capita and total consumption for 2020 are given in Table 2.2. TABLE 2.2: ESTIMATED DIRECT FOOD CONSUMPTION, 2020 Income Elasticity Per Capita Estimate Total (kg) (million tons) Rice -0.05 67 95 Wheat 0.07 51 74 Coarse grains -0.18 18 25 Meat 0.62 56.5 81 2.10 With very large increases in meat consumption, China's feed grain requirements will expand rapidly. Pork is the major meat component, 70 percent of which is produced under "backyard" conditions using very little grain or manufactured feeds. However, much of the incremental production will necessarily come from more "commercial" operations; otherwise, the animal numbers will be extraordinarily high. The level of aggregation in the model (as in all general equilibrium models) hides the details of meat consumption (pork, poultry, etc.) and future consumption growth will likely be greater in more feed efficient poultry. 2.11 The model estimated feed needs using a single feed conversion ratio. However, to more accurately determine feed grain requirements, they were estimated separately for poultry, pork, and "other red" meat under the assumption that technology would improve feed conversion rates by 2020. The total estimated cereal requirements are contained in table 2.3. TABLE 2.3: ESTIMATED CEREAL REQUIREMENTS FOR 2020 Rice L Wheat Coarse Grain Total ------------------------------(million tons)----------------------------------- Cereals for food 95.0 74.0 25.0 194.0 Manufactured products 47.8 64.7 31.4 143.9 (food/industrial) Feed Grains 54.9 13.4 168.2 236.5 Seed Requirements 1.1 3.5 1.6 6.2 Post-harvest loss 9.9 6.7 8.9 25.5 Total 208.6 162.3 234.9 606.0 la Total paddy equivalent is 298 million tons. -8- 2.12 Food grain requirement will be about 292 million tons, feed grains 245 million tons and 67 million tons for other uses. Some coarse grains will continue to be used as a food grain and some fine rice will be used as feed. Wheat bran, as a flour milling by- product will continue to go into feed. About 12 percent of rice production is now used to feed livestock; this will increase to an estimated 30 percent in 2020. 2.13 Numerous studies have addressed China's future grain requirements. Table 2.4 compares two very recent studies with the above estimates. TABLE 2.4: ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATES OF CEREAL REQUIREMENTS --------------------------------Estimates by----------------------------------- Grain Use World Bank IFPRI FAO (2020) (2020) (2030) --------------------------------(million tons)---------------------------------- Food 338.0 298.4 263.3 Feed 236.0 232.0 Other 32.0 - 292.6 Total 606.0 530.4 555.9 2.14 The IFPRI study explicitly addressed the cereal requirements of only food and feed. If "other" uses were added the total requirements would be 587.2 or essentially the same as the World Bank estimates. The FAO study estimated requirements for 2030 and allocated "200 kg/capita for all other uses," which, if intended to include nonfood and nonfeed uses, is about 6 percent below the other two estimates. The different models use quite different methodologies, yet reach the conclusion that about 600 million tons of cereals (689 million tons of unmilled trade grain) will be required in 2020. 2.15 Total cereal requirements estimates are very sensitive to several factors. China's large population means that small changes in per capita consumption of food grains and meat result in large changes in total estimates. Thus, very small changes in income growth rates, income elasticities, prices, or price elasticities will result in significant changes in total cereal requirements. Also, small changes in feed conversion ratios will produce large changes in total estimates. Thus, any estimate should be carefully examined to ensure the assumptions are understood and acceptable. -9- 3. PAST GROWTH, FUTURE CONSTRAINTS AND SOLUTIONS 3.1 Agricultural growth since 1978 can be divided into two periods: during HRS implementation (1978-85), and the post-implementation period (1985-95). During the initial period agricultural growth averaged 7.4 percent and total factor productivity (TFP)2 growth was 6.6 percent." as the HRS reform was extraordinarily successful in improving total factor productivity. Subsequently, growth declined to 5.8 percent, most of which was created by additional inputs and investments; the TFP growth rate declined to 1.1 percent (1985-89 only). Reductions in both TFP and agricultural growth rates raises concern about future growth of agriculture and food production. 3.2 The various components of agriculture and food production grew at very dissimilar rates, particularly since 1984/85. Cereal production increased the least, reflecting its relatively low profitability. Nonstaple foods, livestock, fisheries and vegetables/melons grew at rates of 9.0 percent or greater after 1985 (Figure 3.1). A. ACCOUNTING FOR PAST GROWTH 3.3 To help identify constraints and solutions to agricultural growth and food security, the factors contributing to past growth were reviewed and evaluated. Various studies have identified investments, primarily public investments, and institutional innovations as factors contributing to rapid growth. Lin4 concluded that institutional reform reintroducing the Household Responsibility System (HRS) was the major element influencing agricultural growth in the early 1980s. The fact that growth rates declined subsequent to 1984, by which time 99 percent of all villages had adopted the HRS mode of production, supports this view. To analyze the contribution and impact of factors on crop production growth, a dynamic multisector output response model was specified to evaluate growth during the reform period. (The model is discussed in Annex 8.) The results are summarized in Table 3.1. 12 Total factor productivity is defined as a ratio of output to the weighted sum of inputs (i.e. the total input factors). It is typically expressed as a ratio of index numbers measuring the change in output relative to the change in inputs. 13 Wen, G.J., "Total Factor Productivity Change in China's Farming Sector: 1952-1989", Economic Development and Cultural Change 42(1), October 1993, pp. 1-41. " Lin, J.Y., "Rural Reform and Agricultural Growth in China" American Economic Review, 82, 1:34-51, March 1992. -10- FIGURE 3.1: INDEX OF GROSS OUTPUT OF AGRICULTURAL COMPONENTS 500.0 450.0 400.0- 350.0 300.0 250.0- 200.0- 100.0 50.0 00 O o 0 o o oo oo o oo oo 0 o a t- r- 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 CYN ON 01% O O71 01 CN ON o CN ao\ o 01 O ON O O ON ON ON o a O -- total -w- cereals -*- crops -- livestock -*-- fisheries -- veg. & melon TABLE 3.1: CONTRIBUTION TO CROP PRODUCTION GROWTH Southern China Northern China 1978-84 1984-95 1978-84 1984-95 Other Cash Factor Rice Grain Crops Rice Wheat Corn Wheat Corn ---- -- --------- -percent-- -- - ---- - Research Stock 1.61 5.03 8.51 1.65 3.30 5.84 3.43 6.07 Irrigation Stock 0.13 0.22 0.00 0.39 0.43 0.46 0.47 0.50 Institutional-HRS 2.10 2.71 2.23 0.00 3.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 Input/Output Price 0.44 1.18 0.99 -0.11 0.86 1.94 -0.75 -1.14 Land Prices -0.03 0.00 -9.14 -0.01 -0.04 1.83 -0.01 0.40 Labor Prices -0.96 -2.95 1.29 -0.21 -1.30 -5.90 -0.08 -0.36 Environmental Factors: Disaster 0.06 0.20 0.02 -0.07 0.30 0.36 -0.02 -0.03 Erosion/Salinize 0.00 -0.37 -0.86 0.00 0.01 0.13 -0.02 -0.35 Residual 1.20 1.35 11.55 -1.28 0.21 -1.17 -0.09 -0.19 Growth Rate 4.54 7.37 14.59 0.36 7.63 3.48 2.12 4.89 B. ACCOUNTING FOR PAST GROWTH 3.4 To help identify constraints and solutions to agricultural growth and food security, the factors contributing to past growth were reviewed and evaluated. Various studies have identified investments, primarily public investments, and institutional innovations as -11- factors contributing to rapid growth. Lin" concluded that institutional reform reintroducing the Household Responsibility System (HRS) was the major element influencing agricultural growth in the early 1980s. The fact that growth rates declined subsequent to 1984, by which time 99 percent of all villages had adopted the HRS mode of production, supports this view. To analyze the contribution and impact of factors on crop production growth, a dynamic multisector output response model was specified to evaluate growth during the reform period. (The model is discussed in Annex 8.) The results are summarized in Table 3.1. 3.5 Growth was separately analyzed for southern and northern China using different crops to account for the different cropping patterns and agroclimatic environment. Factors included in the analysis were the HRS institutional reform mentioned above, investments in research and water control infrastructure, input-output price ratios, land and labor prices, and environmental factors. Land use/land markets and agricultural extension were excluded from the analysis because of the lack of change in the former and inability to quantify changes in the latter. Thus, their contribution to growth is undetermined and by default is in the "residual." 3.6 These analyses confirmed that the HRS was important, contributing over 2 percentage points to agricultural growth in southern China during the 1978-84 period. However, the impact of HRS in northern China was mixed, contributing 3.8 percentage points annually to wheat production growth, but had no influence on the growth of corn production. Other important contributors to growth were investments in agricultural research, which has been the underlying engine of agricultural growth during the reform period Irrigation infrastructure investment also was an important contributor to agricultural growth, and may have contributed more than the coefficients indicate as many of the investments were for rehabilitation and compensation infrastructure (to compensate for irrigated land lost to urban and industrial growth) rather than capacity expansion. C. AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH INVESTMENT 3.7 China's research system, with a few interruptions, has effectively supported crop agriculture during the post-revolution period by creating new technologies and crop varieties, and improving agronomic practices. Over the past several decades, research has improved TFP in agriculture and expanded crop production in the face of declining output/input price ratios. " Lin, J.Y., "Rural Reform and Agricultural Growth in China" American Economic Review, 82, 1:34-5 1, March 1992. -12- 3.8 The growth accounting analysis is consistent with conclusions of other scholars'6 who found that growth in Chinese agricultural productivity was overwhelmingly attributable to research investments. Also, high social returns to agricultural research are well documented for many countries." Government investment in research and development resulted in 20 percent" agricultural productivity growth between 1965 and 1994. Other work has estimated that the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) to agricultural research over the same period averaged 94.4 percent.19 Such a high rate of return indicates China is underinvesting in agricultural research. 3.9 Research in any given year builds on past research and adds to the foundation for future research. Research investments accumulate and last for several years before fully depreciating. Thus, research stock is more important than investments in any particular year (except for continuity of research projects). 3.10 Although China's agriculture has been well served by research, three issues create concern for the future. The primary issue is the budgetary allocation for agricultural research. Agricultural research budgets have quadrupled, in real terms, over the past three decades and the number of research scientists employed has increased sixfold,20 but these numbers are deceptive because: (a) funding per scientist has declined, and funds per scientist influences output (new varieties) more than total budget; (b) research costs have generally increased more rapidly than inflation and genetic research is turning to more costly biotechnology; and (c) research has expanded to incorporate pest resistance and drought tolerance along with the former higher yield and shorter season foci. One study2' concluded that funds actually spent on rice research per active scientist-year declined during the 1990s. 16 Huang, Jikun, Mark W. Rosegrant, And Scott Rozelle, "Public Investment, Technological Change and Reform: A Comprehensive Accounting of Chinese Agricultural Growth." International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C., July 1995. 1 For example: Fan (all agriculture-China), Rozelle (rice-China), Griliches (hybrid corn-United State), Evenson and Jha (all agriculture-India), Pray and Ahmed (all agriculture-Bangladesh), and Thirtle and Bottomley (all agriculture-United Kingdom). 18 Fan, S. and P. Pardey; "Research Productivity and Output Growth in Chinese Agriculture," Journal of Development Economics, 1997 forthcoming. 19 Fan, S.; "Research Investment, Input Quality, and the Economic Returns to Chinese Agriculture." Post- Conference Workshop on Agricultural Productivity and Research and Development Policy in China, August 29, 1996, Melbourne, Australia. 20 Fan, S., "Data Survey and Preliminary Assessment of Agricultural Investment in China." A Report to Food and Agriculture Organization, January 30, 1995. 21 Rozelle, S., C. Pray, and J. Huang; "Agricultural Research Policy in China: Testing the Limits," Post- Conference Workshop on Agricultural Productivity and Research and Development Policy in China, 29 August 1996, Melbourne, Australia. -13- TABLE 3.2: AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH INVESTMENTS AND CAPACITY Agricultural Research Annual Average Expenditures Period Research Scientists Intensity La constant 1990 prices Total per Scientist Y million Yuan 1965-69 10,166 0.33 464 46,001 1970-74 10,618 0.41 720 68,518 1975-79 19,319 0.49 1,022 52,729 1980-84 33,111 0.44 1,404 42,482 1985-89 50,330 0.40 1,763 35,336 1990-94 61,835 0.39 2,063 33,276 /a See footnote 18. Source: Annex Tables A7. 1. 3.11 Equally important is the decline in agricultural research intensity22 (ARI) that has occurred over the past 15 years. Between 1975-79 and 1990-94 the ARI declined from 0.5 percent to 0.4 percent (the coefficient excludes research funded from Provincial budgets). This ratio is slightly below the average of other developing countries but is only one-fourth of the investment ratio of developed economies. In the absence of a consensus on an appropriate ARI, it is recommended that China reverse the declining trend and raise the ARI level above the less developed country average. 3.12 An element of the budget issue is the more efficient use of funds allocated. More cost effective research could be achieved by defining research priorities. Given the increasing demand for feed grains, research to develop and adapt corn varieties for the traditional rice areas should have a high priority. Also, livestock research receives a disproportionately small share of the budgetary resources. Furthermore, restructuring the research system, basing it on agroecological zones rather than administrative zones would improve efficiency. Currently, crop research is often duplicated by research institutes at different levels and in different regions. 3.13 The defacto decline in the research budget is exacerbated by research commercialization of the past decade. Research institutes have been enc6uraged to commercialize their activities and earn a portion of their income through technology sales. Ideally, the institutes would license the technology to manufacturers and commercial entities, but weak protection for intellectual property rights made this less attractive than the commercialization option. However, commercialization evolved into unrelated activities with higher capturable returns; including manufacturing, restaurants and hotels, and commercial trade. Diverting researchers from their primary task seriously 22 Agricultural research intensity is the term applied to the ratio of agricultural research expenditures over agricultural gross domestic product. -14- detracts from the institutes' research objectives. Furthermore, only about 15 percent of the commercial revenues earned are allocated to the institutes' research budgets.23 Agricultural research is a public good which should be fully funded from the public treasury. 3.14 In 1982, the Chinese Academy of Science initiated a competitive grants program that allocated funds directly to research scientists. National research policy encourages research funding agencies to make grants based on the best proposals. Only salaries and funds for social benefits (retirement, housing, medical expenses, etc.) remain as core administrative budgets. Conceptually, competitive grants are an efficient method of allocating research funds, but may limit funding to established scientists and institutes and make it difficult for newcomers, including better trained younger scientists, to participate. Competitive public research funding has shifted resources to national level institutes at the expense of prefectural institutes. Whether this is efficient or not, yet remains to be determined-prefectural institutes introduced over 50 percent of the nations new rice cultivars between 1990 and 1994. 3.15 The research by Rozelle24 illustrates that the number of new rice cultivars developed, released and commercially used in the first half of the 1990s was similar to that of the first half of the 1980s, but 25 percent below the output in the second half of the 1980s. There is insufficient evidence to conclude that research productivity and output is declining, but it does suggest that greater attention must be paid to this issue because it could reflect a weakening of the agricultural research system. But it could also signal the inadequacy of technology transfer (extension) as research staff state that only 30 percent of the technology developed is regularly applied in farmers' fields and the balance remain "on the shelf" However, it could reflect high risk or financially unattractive technology. 3.16 Chinese counterpart agencies have access to technology generated by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) institutions25 but China benefits only marginally from agricultural technology developed by private international corporations such as transnational seed companies. Greater internationalization of research and technology through increased cooperation with international public and private institutions would be mutually beneficial. 3.17 Given the overwhelming contribution of research to agricultural growth, real investments in research must be better managed to ensure that efficiency and long- term food security objectives are met. Research must be sufficiently funded to 23 Rozelle, et al, op. cit. 24 Ibid. 25 CGIAR is a loose-knit group of donors that support 18 institutes engaged in international agricultural research. -15- maintain annual TFP growth at 1.0 percent (minimally) in grains. Otherwise, declining production growth will necessitate increased imports. D. FERTILIZER AND FOOD SECURITY 3.18 The rapid increase and widespread use of chemical fertilizers over the past 30-35 years has been a major factor in the remarkable increase in grain and food production. Domestic production provides 70-75 percent of the nutrient supply using both ingenious local technologies and modem international technologies. Fertilizer use has quadrupled since 1978, spurred on by the availability of fertilizer responsive crop varieties. Fertilizer used in 1995 was valued at Y 125 billion and represents the major cash input in crop production. 3.19 The apparent declining effectiveness of incremental fertilizer application has led some analysts26 to conclude that the potential for further yield increases, using existing cultivars, is limited. The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) has identified the following causes of declining fertilizer effectiveness: (a) unbalanced and underapplication of nutrients, especially underuse of potash (K20); (b) poor quality of fertilizers; (c) poor application methods; and (d) poor distribution of fertilizers. Unbalanced Supply and Use of Nutrients 3.20 The importance of proper nutrient balance is well known and generalized N:P205:K20 ratios of 100:50:25 have been recommended for several years, but 1995 application ratios were 100:47:16. (Korea applies N,P, and K in a 100:12:80 ratio and Japan applies 100:40:40.) This study analyzed 1995 macro nutrient balances on the basis of a detailed investigation of the input and uptake for the 17 most important crop and livestock products. The results are summarized in the Table 3.3.27 TABLE 3.3: NATIONAL NUTRIENT BALANCES (million tons) Nutrient Uptake Assessed Losses Nutrient Input /. Balance (crop & animal) Nitrogen 19.52 10.14 32.52 2.86 Phosphate 6.83 3.49 12.51 2.18 Potash 17.50 1.85 12.62 -6.73 /.a Includes chemical fertilizers, crop residues, animal feeds, organic wastes, atmospheric deposition, and nitrogen fixation. 26 Brown, op. cit. 27 Provincial nutrient balances are contained in Annex 3. -16- 3.21 The results indicate that nearly 3 million tons of nitrogen and just over 2 million tons of phosphates were overapplied in 1995, and that there was a shortfall of 6.7 million tons of potash. The excess nitrogen and phosphate was valued at Y 18 billion and was essentially wasted-and possibly contributed to environmental pollution. The lack of adequate potash meant that the efficiency of nitrogen and phosphate uptake was diminished and crop production was lower than it could have been. This analysis is consistent with a recent micro-study (on 71 farms) of nutrient input and output by the China National Rice Research Institute, which determined very low nitrogen and phosphate efficiency relative to potash uptake and recommended that farmers either reduce nitrogen and phosphate application or increase potash use. 3.22 In the short-run, nutrients are applied only to the extent there is an economic yield response as some nutrient uptake is provided by soil nutrient reserves. But for long-run sustainability, crop and animal nutrient uptake must be replaced by either natural processes (atmospheric deposition, biological nitrogen fixation, etc.) or by fertilizer application. 3.23 In the absence of aggregate fertilizer application data by crop, fertilizer research and field trials were examined to determine potential yield responses to balanced potash application with nitrogen and phosphate. These research projects and field trials were undertaken by CAAS and other Chinese agricultural research entities-often in collaboration with international institutes-and confirm the importance of increased potash use. Some of the results are summarized in Table 3.4. TABLE 3.4: AVERAGE YIELD RESPONSE TO POTASH IN BALANCED FERTILIZER TRAILS Average Yield Yield Increment Response Crop Potash AppliedLa without K with K -------- -----------(kg/ha)----------- (kg output/ kgK,O) Rice 98 6,038 7,020 982 10 Wheat 98 2,790 3,900 1,110 11 Corn 113 5,048 6,570 1,522 13 Tomato 165 23,318 30,773 7,455 45 Br. Bean 120 2,145 3,233 1,088 9 Watermelon 150 31,290 38,430 7,140 47 Citrus n.a. 40,148 53,783 13,635 Pineapple 375 22,530 28,590 6,060 16 Za Application rate in kg of K20 per hectare, nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers were balanced. Source Stauffer, Mark D. And James D. Denton, "Importance of Plant Nutrients in Increasing Agricultural Productivity-Chinese Experience," presented at the Fertilizer Association of India's Annual General Meeting, December 7-9, 1995, New Delhi. 3.24 The results indicate the potential increases in crop productivity from balanced application of fertilizers range from 16 to 50 percent. Soil fertility and fertilizer -17- researchers state that properly balanced fertilizer application would increase yields by 12 to 15 percent It is unclear why greater amounts of potash are not used in China despite clear evidence of the benefits. One reason could be that fertilizer use in China has evolved on the basis of local supplies. Nitrogen is the most used nutrient and is the most abundantly available from local sources. Local phosphates have become available on a large scale only in the last decade and phosphate use has increased commensurate with domestic production. There is very little potash available locally and it is costly to produce. Assuring fertilizer application is balanced is an important food security issue. Fertilizer Supply and Underapplication 3.25 The average application rate of plant nutrients is officially given as about 240 kg/ha. This appears to overstate the actual application as recent satellite imagery indicates that the cultivated land base is about 40 percent greater than the land statistics indicate (para. 3.31) and there is "double counting" of about 10 percent of the single- nutrient fertilizers that are blended into compound fertilizers. Correcting for these statistical anomalies reduces the application rate to a very modest figure of 155 kg/ha. China's average fertilizer application rate is therefore below the East Asian developing country average and far below Japan and Korea where yields are higher. This low application rate may result from the limited supply availability. 3.26 Planning guidelines call for nitrogen self-sufficiency and 66 percent self- sufficiency in phosphates by 2000. The increased production is to come from large scale plants that would cost over $5.0 billion. This 2000 objective will not be met. The manufacturing plants currently under construction, with a capacity of about 2.1 million tons of nitrogen equivalent, will be completed by 2000. But during the late 1990s nitrogen consumption will grow by 3.0 million tons, and the deficit will increase to about 5.0 million tons by 2000-assuming ABC production remains constant. To replace estimated 2000 imports with domestic production would require 12 to 13 additional plants with an investment cost of about $4.4 billion, based on cost estimates of $350 million for 400,000 tons nitrogen plants. Whether such an investment would be efficient is difficult to judge as the international price of urea is notoriously volatile. But, if domestic energy costs can be maintained below $2.00 per million BTU, domestic manufacture should be more efficient than importing. 3.27 Fertilizer imports are centrally controlled and highly volatile ranging from 5 to 10 million tons (nutrient content) annually over the past decade. Urea has been the major import, followed by potash and compounds. SINOCHEM, a Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation (MOFTEC) company has the exclusive right to import fertilizer; as such it leverages its position to obtain very favorable prices. However, it is inflexible and has not responded to demand changes. The sector must be prepared to import large quantities of potash as local supplies can meet only a small fraction of requirements. -18- Poor quality of fertilizers 3.28 About 50 percent of China's supply of nitrogen and phosphate consists of low grade ammonium bicarbonate (ABC), single superphosphate (SSP), and fused magnesium calcium phosphate which is produced in small scale factories. Ammonium bicarbonate as a nitrogen nutrient source is unique to China. Its manufacture involves a relatively simple technology using widely distributed anthracite coal deposits (or coke) as feedstock which permitted China to rapidly build up production capacity and quickly expand nitrogen fertilizer application. However, its manufacture is relatively energy inefficient (mitigated by an abundance of anthracite deposits), highly pollution prone, and the product decomposes in storage. Similarly, phosphate fertilizer production remains primarily low analysis single superphosphate (SSP) which can be manufactured from widely distributed low grade rock using simple and low-cost technology. The poor quality of the low grade materials is not only in their low nutrient content (the nutrient content of these products is less than 20 percent) which makes them costly to transport, but also in their handling and agronomic efficacy (para. 3.30). The small scale production of low grade nitrogen and phosphates using local technologies is a remarkable historical feat, but it has left China with inefficient, polluting factories and an antiquated industry structure. As application volumes increase, it becomes more important to improve production and transport efficiency by shifting to higher analysis fertilizers. 3.29 New factories using modem technology and producing high analysis, high quality products are under construction, and others are planned, but they will only meet incremental needs and will not immediately replace the low grade fertilizers. New modem factories require large investments and long gestation periods for construction, which may require a decade or more for commissioning. New incentive structures and special efforts are needed to accelerate the construction of new modem factories. Poor Methods of Applying Fertilizer 3.30 It is estimated that 50 percent of the nitrogen applied to irrigated fields is lost by evaporation, because fertilizer is broadcast. Applying the fertilizer directly to the root zone by using fertilizer drills or slow release fertilizer tablets would reduce this problem. The nitrogen in ABC is particularly volatile even evaporating in storage. It cannot, therefore, be stored for long periods, which means that ABC plants often cannot be operated effectively in the fallow seasons when fertilizer is not needed which increases costs due to idle assets. Evaporation is not a problem with the low grade phosphate fertilizers, but not all of the contained phosphate is water soluble and therefore is not immediately available for plant up-take. E. LAND 3.31 China's agricultural land base is exceptionally small relative to its large population and geographic area. Official sources list China's cultivated and sown areas as 95 and 145 million hectares, respectively. However, satellite imagery indicates the true cultivated area is approximately 132 million hectares. The 40 percent additional -19- cultivated area implies that fertilizer application rates and yields are 40 percent less than indicated in official statistics and represents an enormous potential for increasing yields with important food security implications. 3.32 If crops are distributed proportionally on the additional land, then individual crop yields, as well as fertilizer application rates, are 40 percent lower than officially reported. Chinese grain yields, as reported and revised, are compared with various other countries and regions in the table below. International comparison of rice yields is easier to interpret than other crops as rice is almost always irrigation whereas other crops are grown under both rainfed and irrigated conditions. TABLE 3.5: INTERNATIONAL YIELD COMPARISONS (1991-94 AVERAGE) Country/Region Yield Rice Wheat Corn China 1 5,793 3,317 4,777 China 2 4,138 2,369 3,412 Asian Countries 3,668 2,500 3,462 Developing Countries 3,514 2,424 2,670 Developed Countries 5,671 2,556 6,249 Argentina 4,471 2,158 4,289 Australia 8,284 1,581 4,853 Egypt 7,566 5,093 6,116 France 5,035 6,559 7,775 Italy 6,558 3,497 8,236 Korea 6,060 3,007 4,798 Thailand 2,185 2,871 U.S. 6,421 2,510 7,522 Notes: China 1: Office Statistics. China 2: Official Statistics reduced by 40 percent to reflect the additional area. Source: FAO database. 3.33 Under the "China 2" assumptions, wheat and corn yields are similar to the Asian average; rice yields remain higher that the Asian average. Cereal yields are well below that of many major producing countries and 50 percent or less of the levels of the top ranked country. This does not imply that average Chinese yields can economically be increased to levels of other countries (say, rice yields equal to those in Australia) as climatic conditions (solar radiation, etc.) are different; but it does indicate substantial potential for improvement, particularly for corn. -20- 3.34 Land productivity is reduced by natural disasters such as floods and environmental degradation---erosion, water logging, and salinization-alkalinization. But the areas vulnerable to these conditions are increasingly controlled and improved. Also, the land base is steadily diminished by residential and industrial encroachment and infrastructure construction. Since 1988, capital construction has removed 190,000 hectares of agricultural land from cultivation annually. This is about one-third of the annual decrease in cultivated area and is the only land that is permanently alienated from agriculture. Unfortunately, these land losses have been concentrated in the Shandong and southeastern coastal provinces where high multiple cropping compounds the land loss. Land reclamation, averaging 245,000 hectares annually, has partially mitigated these cultivated land losses. Newly reclaimed land is less productive than that lost to capital construction. Some cultivated land is lost by transferring it to alternative agricultural uses such as pastures, forests and fish ponds. Other fluctuations in cultivated land represents marginal land which is cultivated or lies fallow depending upon price relationships and profitability. 3.35 An estimated 13.5, 2.4, and 2.0 million hectares of barren, tidal, and wastelands,28 respectively, are potentially reclaimable although infrastructure (irrigation works, roads, etc.) and farm buildings would reduce the cultivable area by 25 to 30 percent. These areas are widely distributed around the country with almost 50 percent located in Xinjiang and Heilongjiang, where water shortages will constrain actual reclamation (Annex Table Al.7). Also, a portion of these lands are located in remote areas or are low in natural fertility, but still may be productive pasture or forest land. About 25 percent of the land lies within, or south of, the Yangtze River basin and would be more amenable to irrigation. Areas that hold considerable potential for reclamation and rehabilitation are the "red soil" areas within this region. One-third of the potentially reclaimable tidal lands are in the coastal provinces abutting the Bohai Gulf (Liaoning, Tianjin, Hebei, and Shandong). Food production on reclaimed tidal lands would be concentrated in aquaculture and rice. The cost of reclaiming these lands varies from a low of Y 15,000/ha for barren land to Y 150,000/ha of tidal land. 3.36 Future government budgets will be strained to meet infrastructure investment requirements, thus incentives must be improved to stimulate land reclamation and rehabilitation by nonstate entities. This may include extended lease rights, transfer rights, parallel development of land for nonagricultural uses, etc. Multiple Cropping 3.37 The cropping index ranges from less than 100 in some northeastern and northwestern provinces to over 250 in Hubei. Short frost-free periods limit the potential for increasing the index in the northern-most and high altitude provinces, except for green 28 Barren land may be either virgin land or abandoned cultivated land. Tidal lands are those which are inundated during high tide and reappear during low tide, and wastelands are primarily those areas where rocks and other waste materials from mining operations have been discarded. -21- house production of vegetables, and water shortages limit multiple cropping in other northern locales. However, improved water control, shorter season varieties, and appropriate production incentives will stimulate additional multiple cropping in the southern and middle latitude transition provinces. 3.38 Although China's cultivated land per capita is low, land per se is not a limiting food security constraint given: (a) the relatively lower yields now believed to occur and the potential for increased yields under balanced fertilizer application regimes; (b) the potential for further agricultural land expansion through land reclamation; and (c) the potential for increasing long-term investments in land by improving farmer incentives. F. WATER RESOURCES 3.39 Water scarcity is China's most limiting agricultural production resource, particularly in the northern corn and wheat regions. Annual average water runoff in China is considerably below the world average and only about one-third of the runoff is exploitable. In 1993 actual water exploitation was about 60 percent of the potentially exploitable supply, implying some potential for further water development. However, increased water development requires large investments in storage, diversion works, recycling, pumping, and conveyance systems. Incremental Supplies 3.40 South-North Transfers. Major increases in the supply of exploitable water to northern China must await the completion of one or more of the three components of the South-North Transfer scheme from the Yangtze River. Prefeasibility studies on the eastern and middle routes conclude that 20 and 25 billion m3 per year could be transferred to the more arid north with respective investment costs of roughly $10 and $15 billion. 3.41 Municipal and Industrial (M&I) Water Returns and Reuse. Wastewater is discharged into waterways for downstream use, but much of this return water is untreated with uncertain health and environmental consequences. Given the large anticipated water allocations to municipal and industrial users over the coming decades, investments in wastewater treatment and recapture for irrigation are necessary to prevent outbreaks of waterborne diseases, ensure uncontaminated food supplies, and support food production. Also, mixing irrigation drainage water with fresh water for reuse can expand the available water by as much as 25 percent. 3.42 Improved Water Distribution and Irrigation Efficiency. Only about 30 percent of the water diverted into irrigation canals is actually delivered to crop root zones. The losses are due to delivery inefficiencies, which are the responsibility of public entities, and to inefficient on-fann water use. Delivery improvement will require lining the canals and other investments (e.g., pipe and hose systems) but on-farm efficiency could be improved with appropriate water pricing. -22- Water Consumption 3.43 The major users of captured water are industries, municipalities, rural residents, and irrigated agriculture. Water use by other entities determines the amount available for agriculture as irrigation is a residual user. Alternative use is expected to grow rapidly during the next two decades. Municipal and industrial uses will require an increasing share of the water supplies. Increases in industrial water requirements are closely linked to industrial growth which is projected to be sustained at an average of 6 percent through 2020. Municipal water consumption is primarily determined by urban population (although it is rationed in some northern Chinese cities), which is projected to grow by 4.0 and 3.0 percent, respectively, during the 1990s and 2000s. Water demand by rural households is projected to stabilize as small per capita increases will be balanced by a declining rural population. 3.44 Irrigation water requirements are a function of the effectively irrigated area (EIA), efficiency of the delivery systems, multiple cropping practices, and individual crops produced. However, as a residual user, crop requirements may not necessarily be met. In terms offood security, it is more efficient to fully irrigate all the land possible with the water available and idle (or cultivate as dryland) the balance. However, this is unacceptable on equity grounds and, in reality, water deficits would be shared with consequent production reductions. Water Conservation Investments 3.45 Government investments in water conservation fluctuated greatly over the past four decades but consistently claimed about 70 percent of agricultural sector investments. Real investments were relatively low during the 1980s, which is reflected in the marginal increase in irrigated area during the decade. Both investments and irrigated area increased sharply in the 1990s; between 1989 and 1995 irrigation investments trebled and irrigated area expanded by 10 percent. The marginal cost, in constant 1990 yuan, of this expansion was Y 10,000 per hectare, representing very efficient investments. 3.46 The marginal cost of future irrigation expansion will be considerably more expensive than past expansion, for two reasons: (a) the less costly projects have already been completed and only the more costly projects remain; and (b) water will be increasingly diverted away from agriculture to nonagricultural uses, thus it will be costly to just maintain the irrigated area. Cost estimates for increasing water supplies through treating and recycling industrial water and for improving distribution systems are unavailable. G. INFRASTRUCTURE 3.47 Most grain continues to be consumed on the farm, or in the village, where produced. Only one-third of cereal production is marketed outside the village of production. But with increasing urbanization and increasing quantities of cereals fed to livestock the marketed surplus will rapidly increase. However, lack of transportation and -23- supporting infrastructure are serious constraints to efficient food marketing and distribution. This is particularly true for bulk grain transportation, intermodal transfers, handling, and transit storage, but it also includes refrigerated transport and storage facilities for perishable products. The inability to rapidly move large quantities of grain limits the development of rational grain markets and creates market fragmentation. Bulk Grain Logistical Systems 3.48 Bulk logistical systems create synergism and benefits that would be unavailable if introduced as individual elements. Such systems are costly and justifiable only on high volume corridors. External grain flows are unnecessarily costly because there are few deep-water ports or dedicated grain berths, and port handling facilities are inadequate. Similarly, it is difficult to transfer grain between the hinterland and the coast due to the lack of domestic bulk transport facilities. There are no bulk intermodal grain transfers except for a bulk grain shuttle system which transfers imported wheat from Tianjin to Beijing.29 To market grain more efficiently and rapidly China needs more dedicated bulk handling systems in high density grain corridors. Ports 3.49 About 98 percent of internationally traded grain transit 14 major ports. (Annex Tables 8.3a & k for port grain flows.) But only Lianyungang, Qinhuangdao, and Minsheng Road ports, and a single berth at Tianjin, are specialized grain handling ports/berths; although additional specialized berths are under construction at Dalian, Fengcheng and some Yangtze River ports. High-capacity bulk unloading equipment is available at some major import terminals, but bulk loading facilities are generally lacking. However, for most ports bulk unloading consists of low-capacity grab cranes, conveyor hoppers, and often improvised portable conveying equipment that cannot be operated in inclement weather. The lack of dedicated all-weather high-capacity off-loading equipment increases port transfer costs as discharge and demurrage costs range from $4,000 to $12,000 per day per vessel (depending upon size and age of the vessel). Daily loading charges are generally double the discharge cost. Domestic grain flows between coastal ports doubled between 1985 and 1990 and doubled again by 1995 and now exceed foreign grain imports and exports indicating that the need for high-capacity bulk intermodal outflow systems is as necessary as inflow systems. 3.50 There are 394 coastal berths classified as "deep-water berths" capable of handling vessels of 10,000 dead weight tons (dwt), but no data are available on the number of berths capable of accommodating larger vessels. Most grain vessels calling at Chinese ports are 35,000 dwt, with 50,000 dwt vessels calling at the high-capacity ports. Transocean shipment on smaller vessels is more costly than on larger vessels, therefore, 29 Additional systems are under construction in the northeast, Yangtze River, and southwest areas under a Bank Group-financed project. -24- ocean freight costs on China destined grain are typically higher than for other Asian destinations.30 3.51 The port facilities have been adequate if not efficient. Importing grain on small vessels and slow off-loading at poorly equipped ports cost an estimated $15.00 extra per ton. If grain imports treble in the next two decades, this could amount to as much as $600 million per year. However, this figure represents potential savings if adequate investments are made in deep-water berths and port handling equipment. It would be very cost effective to invest in improved grain handling and port facilities. 3.52 To efficiently accommodate future grain flows, China must add a new bulk deep- water grain berth of 4.0 to 5.0 million tons capacity biennially over the next two decades. Berth and bulk handling investment costs would be roughly $60 to $85 million per berth, depending upon existing ancillary facilities. 3.53 Grain flows through inland ports have remained remarkably constant during the 1990s, averaging 65 million tons per year. All these flows are bagged grain using slow and costly intermodal transfers. Inland waterways are intensively used in other parts of the world as a low-cost transport mode for bulk grain but have been neglected in China. This neglect has stemmed, in part, from the administratively determined rail tariffs which, contrary to other countries, are below barge tariff rates. Market-determined tariff rates for all transport modes would increase the demand for bulk barge transport along the major inland waterways. Rail Transport 3.54 Improved efficiency contributed to the increased rail movement of grain from 45 million tons in 1985 to 67 million tons in 1995. Further efficiency gains are unlikely as rail wagon utilization is now 98 percent and load factors for grain have reached 99 percent of wagon capacity. Ninety-nine percent of the grain is transported in bags; only 1 percent is transported on the Tianjin-Beijing bulk shuttle. 3.55 China has made very large investments to expand railway capacity and more are planned. But grain specific investments are difficult to justify because grain comprises only 4 percent of rail freight. Nevertheless, more grain is destined for larger users such as food millers and manufacturers, feed millers, industrial manufacturers, and so forth, where bulk grain is more efficiently handled than bags. The Ministry of Railways (MOR) permits clients 1 to 2 days to load/unload wagons; this time would be reduced to minutes with bulk wagons. Bulk wagons would increase efficiency by increasing wagon utilization and turnover per wagon. 30 Source: Lloyd's Maritime Information Services, Inc. Also, during a recent 90 day period the average cost per ton for various size bulk grain shipments between the US Gulf Coast and China were: 30,000 dwt-$31.00; 55,000 dwt-$25.00; and 80,000 dwt-$16.00. Fertilizer shipments are frequently in even smaller ships (15,000-25,000 dwt) with per ton rates in excess of $40.00. -25- 3.56 Bulk rail wagons should be used only on high volume rail corridors, preferably with backhaul opportunities, with bulk loading/unloading facilities at railheads. Individual bulk hopper wagons with a turnover capability of about 4 million ton/km annually (based on 1,300 km average distance of grain shipments) cost about $50,000 each. A $625 million investment in 12,500 bulk wagons would handle 50 percent of the grain traffic, but ancillary loading and unloading facilities would require further investments to reap the full benefits of bulk transport. Storage 3.57 Grain storage requirements increase as grain production and domestic trade expand, but much of the storage facilities are constructed on-farm. The State adds about 1.0 million m2 (1.7 million tons) of storage space annually, mainly long-term storage for reserves. Virtually all of these additions are flat warehouse storage which does not lend itself to rapid in/out movements. China could reduce government storage by relying on nonstate enterprises to market and distribute grain if more flexibility were permitted for variations in price across seasons and regions. 3.58 High throughput transit storage is crucial to efficient intermodal interfacing in a bulk grain logistical system. Transit storage requirements at intermodal transfer points are highly site specific and must be carefully calculated to avoid dead storage. Transport arrivals and departures must be well timed to ensure high throughput. Bulk Fertilizer Logistical Systems 3.59 Given that food and agricultural production primarily consists of small farms, bulk handling of fertilizer between manufacturer and farmer would be impractical, although it could be efficient for some State Farms. Nevertheless, as larger domestic fertilizer manufacturing plants are constructed, bulk delivery to bagging centers in intensive agricultural areas should be considered for a portion of the output to avoid repetitive and costly bag handling. H. POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONS 3.60 Most grain policies are control oriented, urban biased, focused on the short term and impede long-term food security. Managing and supporting the grain component of the food sector is complex because it directly involves five ministries and several agencies. The nongrain foods-fruit, vegetable, and livestock products-are produced and marketed in a basically free market environment, but in the cereals subsector government intervention remains the norm. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, the government gradually liberalized grain policy and reformed grain institutions, but rapid price increases in late 1993 led to retrenchment in 1994. Subsequent reform has been modest and focused on decentralization. The major objectives of grain policy are to: (a) maintain 95 percent grain self-sufficiency as stated in the Government's White -26- Paper"; (b) increase control of production, pricing and marketing-government quota procurement of 50 million tons plus 40 million tons of additional procurement to control 70-80 percent of the marketed grain; and (c) continue controlling stocks and international trade. Governors Responsibility System (GRS) and the Pricing-Marketing Framework 3.61 In 1995, the Central Government delegated responsibility for balancing local supply and demand, portions of pricing and marketing control and a portion of grain responsibility (including financial responsibility) to the provinces. Market transactions between Government Grain Enterprises (GGE) in surplus and deficit provinces replaced centrally "planned" interprovincial grain transfers. GGEs from deficit areas are forbidden to procure grain in the countryside in grain surplus areas and they must buy from wholesale markets at county level or above. Surplus producing provinces must maintain three months supply of grain stocks and deficit provinces-six months supply. Provinces are free to subsidize farmers' inputs and consumers' purchases as their revenues allow. Private traders cannot procure grain in the countryside until State grain quotas have been filled. 3.62 The State retained the grain quota (below market price grain which must be delivered to Grain Bureaus), national stock responsibility, and the international grain trade monopoly. The net effect of the GRS policy was to decentralize responsibilities, replacing the nationwide policy with a multitude of provincial policies, but the policy content changed only marginally. Decentralization, per se, had minimal influence on the record grain production of 1995 and 1996, which was more attributable to increased prices and favorable weather. How Quota Procurement Affects Farm Income 3.63 In 1995 Government procured 46.2 million tons of quota grain and an additional 46.3 million tons were procured at negotiated prices. Quota grain prices averaged 60 percent of the free market price, and negotiated prices averaged 90 percent. These below- market prices imposed a total implicit tax of Y 40.7 billion on grain producers. The tax distribution by grain is indicated in Table 3.5. Recent grain price and production increases have shown that farmers respond to price. Thus, artificially low average prices depress production and marketed surpluses and hamper food security. As incomes of grain farmers are typically below that of aquatic, livestock, fruit, and vegetable producers, the tax is discriminatory as well as a production disincentive. 31 Information Office of the State Council, "The Grain Issue in China," October 1996. -27- TABLE 3.6: GOVERNMENT GRAIN PROCUREMENT AND VALUE, 1995 State Procurement Production Price Implicit Tax Quota Negotiated Market Quota Negotiated Market -------------(million tons)---------- -----------(Y/ton)----------- (Y billion) Rice a 18.4 10.3 185.2 1,107.5 1,729.0 1,897.5 16.3 Wheat 17.1 14.1 102.2 1,080.0 1,528.0 1,688.0 12.7 Corn 9.3 15.0 112.0 855.0 1,385.0 1,580.0 9.7 Soybeans 1.0 4.2 13.5 1,814.0 2,422.0 2,711.0 2.1 Total 40.7 Lg average of indica and japonica (unmilled). Source: Annex Table A5.1. 3.64 Future Proposed Policy. Record grain production in 1996 depressed market prices to levels very near the fixed State prices. The Government proposes to procure 1997 quotas at market-determined prices and to discontinue policy consumption subsidies through the grain enterprises (better schemes must be developed to provide food grains to low income urban residents), but will retain procurement quotas to control grain stocks. Unifying prices at the "market" level will improve farmer incomes but the purchase price will remain State-determined, albeit by competition between various GGEs. Nongovernment grain enterprises will participate in the market only after the State satisfies its procurement needs. Unified market determined prices and concurrent liberalized marketing are needed to ensure market prices are efficiently determined State Grain Enterprise Reform 3.65 The Grain Bureaus (GB) have two conflicting roles: perform regulatory and policy functions and operate commercially profitable enterprises. This "two-track" system allows the enterprises to mix staff, activities, grain stocks and financial accounts. Quota grain is sold as higher price negotiated grain, reserve grain is used as commercial stocks, and consolidated accounts make it easy to reallocate commercial losses to policy losses and then claim government reimbursement. The GB is a monopsony; it procures commercial grain, without competition, at "below-market" negotiated prices. The GBs have little incentive to be efficient because their losses are reimbursed; they have no competition for raw materials and only modest competition in marketing (GBs procure 70-80 percent of marketed surplus). 3.66 Pricing policy, combined with the GB's inefficiency, is costly. IOU procurement is prohibited, but there are reports of delayed or closed procurement due to lack of funds or storage space.32 GB bank debts continue to accumulate; they increased Y 25 billion in 32 Xinhua news agency reports in various newspapers. -28- 1996. Government consumption subsidies for "grain and edible oil" averaged Y 20 billion" over the past five years. 3.67 Grain policy and enterprise inefficiency costs Y 85 billion (implicit farmer tax plus bank debt and consumption subsidies) annually so reform is imperative; this requires that full market competition replace the monopoly/monopsony the GB now enjoys. Competition would be introduced by private traders, GGEs, State and Collective farms, grain processing enterprises, and so forth. This could result in some GGEs declaring bankruptcy and exiting the industry leaving some of the 3.5 million GB workers unemployed; but many of the GBs would remain in business-albeit with fewer workers. The cost of social assistance to all 3.5 million employees would be far less that the current inefficiency costs of Y 85 billion. Grain Reserves 3.68 Industrial country governments have been divesting from grain storage because the cost of holding reserve stocks exceeds the perceived benefits of grain price stability. Reserves are maintained as commercial stocks by more efficient and competitive private enterprises. Food grains in these countries comprise a small portion of agricultural incomes and consumer expenditures, and price instability is relatively unimportant. Nevertheless, there are economic arguments for price stabilization in developing countries where food grains are a major cost element in the food basket.34 3.69 The State Administration for Grain Reserve (SAGR) manages reserve stocks on a noncommercial basis. It directs and pays Provincial Grain Bureaus to handle grain on its behalf. Separating the management and operational functions has hindered the Government's ability to effectively stabilize prices. Price stabilization releases can be triggered by a 20 percent price increase, "within a short period of time," with State Council approval. Releases have been difficult to activate because the reserve grain is physically mixed with GB commercial stocks and is sometimes sold and, therefore, unavailable when needed. Also, the GBs are reluctant to release stocks because storage fees provide substantial income. The grain reserve target of 40 million tons, together with reserves maintained by provincial and local authorities and 90 million tons commercial/semicommercial grain handled by State Grain Enterprises is an extraordinary quantity of grain (and proportion of marketed grain) handled by the State to maintain 3 An estimated annual subsidy of Y 3 billion for cotton was subtracted from the price subsidy for grain, edible oil and cotton listed in China Statistical Yearbook, 1996. 3 Rice price stabilization by Indonesia's Bulog (Badan Urusan Logistik) is estimated to have contributed almost one percentage point to GNP growth in its early years, 1969-74 (Timmer 1996). -29- price stability35-and is extraordinarily costly. Price stability could surely be effected with smaller reserves. 3.70 Large reserves successfully protect against possible transitory insecurity, but less costly alternatives should be sought. Futures hedging is an efficient management tool when annual imports are required to meet consumption requirements but inappropriate as insurance for possible imports. Futures options are relatively inexpensive theoretical alternatives, but market transactions in these instruments are too few to be a viable option for China. However, greater reliance on the international market would be more efficient than maintaining stock for the most severe contingency, although additional port and handling capacity would be necessary. Table 3.6 indicates that from 1990 to 1996 the average cost of internationally procured grain would have been $35/ton less than procuring (at an international price equivalent) and storing domestic grain for subsequent use. The table implicitly assumes that grain stocks are recycled each year and replaced with newly purchased grain. TABLE 3.7: COST OF MAINTAINING WHEAT RESERVES VS. IMPORTING Purchase and Carryover to Year Following Year La Unit Value of Imports ($/ton) ($/ton) 1990 172 1991 220 118 1992 157 142 1993 185 129 1994 170 131 1995 172 174 1996 223 229 /a Assumptions: Interest-10%; Storage losses-5%; $18/ton/year storage cost. 3.71 Proposed future policies call for: (a) separate storage for incremental grains added to the reserve, and gradual stock removal from GB storage to self-controlled storage, (b) new SAGR warehouses should be constructed in readily accessible grain deficit locations, and (c) "first in, first out" inventory management should be practiced. Reserves will be maintained independently of GBs using separate storage, staff, and 3s Indonesia's Bulog stabilized domestic rice prices during the past three decades by relying heavily on private-sector traders and performing only a marginal market role. Bulog's maximum annual rice purchase was 25 percent of production and designed carryover stocks are 1.0 million tons. -30- accounts. Future reserves will be added as grains are available, not procured according to Plan as was previously done. Implementation of these proposals should permit SAGR to more effectively implement policy decisions and perform its stabilization role. Input Pricing and Marketing 3.72 Fertilizer is the major cash input for food production. Fertilizer marketing remains a planned component of the input supply sector. Various government jurisdictions plan their fertilizer requirements and submit it to the next administrative level for consolidation, which must ultimately be approved by SPC. The Plan will indicate the sources of domestic manufacturing and the import requirements-including timing and delivery port. The fertilizer supply market is basically a single channel, monopoly structure operated by the China National Agricultural Means of Production Corporation (CNAMPC). CNAMPC takes domestically manufactured fertilizer from the manufacturers each week and receives imported fertilizer at the ports for onward distribution. Only 10 percent (estimated) of the domestically manufactured fertilizer is traded outside this channel. Price levels and the marketing margin received by CNAMPC are government controlled; imported fertilizer, which typically has higher nutrient content, is higher priced. 3.73 The fertilizer marketing and distribution system is cumbersome but there is an effective system of agencies and subagencies at State, provincial, and local levels. The Agricultural Means of Production Corporation at each level receives and sends fertilizer onward to the next lower level until eventually arriving at the farmers' villages. This system has been effective in supplying farmers with some nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers. This is because the 1,500 small factories are widely distributed throughout the country and marketing basically involves moving local supplies over short distances. Interprovincial trade in fertilizers is primarily from imports. 3.74 The existing marketing structure has provided farmers with a modicum of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers. But it has failed to deliver the types and combinations of fertilizer nutrients recommended and needed. Also, it is unclear whether the existing marketing system is sufficiently flexible to respond to the large and rapid changes in fertilizer quantities and composition required in the next century. The marketing system and distribution agencies must supply the fertilizer nutrient requirements for individual crops on individual farms as determined by scientific analysis. Without competition it cannot be determined whether handling is efficient as competitively determined margins may result in lower fertilizer prices at the farmgate. Independent dealers, whose incomes depend upon helping farmers optimize their fertilizer input, effectively perform this service in many countries of the world. International Trade Policy and Institutions 3.75 China is ihe world's largest fertilizer importer and in some years, the world's largest grain importer. Imports in both commodities are "planned" up to six months before the beginning of the year and implemented by monopoly trading companies. -31- SINOCHEM and COFCO-CEROILS36 are the respective trading companies. Given China's importance in the international market and monopoly status of these companies, they are able to impose considerable leverage in pricing and delivery terms. They typically import fertilizer and grain at c.i.f. prices very near international prices levels. 3.76 The monopoly import and distribution "system" has failed to provide farmers with the recommended and required fertilizer nutrients and the lengthy administrative process for approving grain imports and exports means that by implementation time, the situation may have changed. Trade transactions have exacerbated fluctuations in rice, wheat and corn supplies over the past decade, regardless of the statistical measure applied. Thus, in years of reduced production smaller imports occur than during years of increased production. Year-to-year fluctuations and standard errors around a trend line were consistently greater if net imports were included in the supply statistic (Annea6, Tables 2-3). 3.77 The monopoly trading companies and "planned" import-export systems are effective, but operate with uncertain efficiency. More competitive and open trade regimes may result in lower cost fertilizer to farmers, higher prices for farmgate corn, lower cost of wheat flour to consumers, and more stabilizing responses to import requirements. Grain Price Trends 3.78 After a long period of very stable subsidized cereal prices, in 1993 Government decided to reduce its fiscal costs by increasing administratively set prices and moving toward market determined prices. Domestic prices began to trend upward in 1993 and increased sharply in 1994 before leveling off in 1995 and declining in 1996. By the end of 1996 wholesale cereal prices had returned to the levels of early 1994. Throughout the period price movements were relatively more smooth and without the monthly volatility experienced in the international market - particularly rice. Also, the international price "spikes" in late 1993-early 1994 were not transmitted to domestic markets-but that is the point of departure for sharply increasing domestic prices. During 1994 domestic (wholesale) prices of corn increased 65 percent, rice-75 percent, and wheat-60 percent while international prices of corn and rice were declining and wheat prices were stable. Both domestic and international price peaked in early 1996 with domestic prices marginally above international prices. Average domestic wholesale prices remain above international prices but there is a very wide range of wholesale prices between the surplus and deficit provinces, as the transport infrastructure is inadequate to move the large volumes required. Monthly domestic and international prices are contained in the Statistical Annex. 36 The Cereal, Oil and Foodstuff Import and Export Company (CEROILS) is a subsidiary of the China Oil and Foodstuff Corporation (COFCO) and responsible for grain and vegetable oil import and export. -32- Water Pricing Policy 3.79 Water is the most limiting resource in food production. But current low water prices encourage overuse and contribute to low water use efficiency and subsequent scarcity. MWR's "Water Financial Directive" of 1988 called for marginal cost pricing of water by 1997. Clearly this has not occurred; water prices charged to most farmers remain below supply costs, ranging from zero to Y 0.40/M3 in the Yellow River Basin. The marginal value of water in agriculture ranges from Y 1/M3 for grains and Y 4/M3 for vegetables." In the few locations where rational irrigation water pricing has been implemented, water demand has declined without affecting yield levels. 3.80 Water charges should be immediately increased to cover supply costs with a timetable for achieving marginal cost pricing. However, increasing prices may be difficult to implement without ensuring irrigation services and infrastructure are adequately maintained and system performance improved Land Use Policy 3.81 Recently, cultivation contracts for farmland were increased from 15 to 30 years, which improves the incentive but remains inadequate to stimulate needed investments to improve land productivity. The family farm management structure (household responsibility system) reintroduced in the late 1970s and early 1980s radically altered incentives and rapidly increased labor and land productivity. Cultivation contracts permitted individual farm families to manage agricultural production but land ownership remained with the village; thus, in reality land might be redistributed before contract expiration due to rural population and household growth. Researchers have found continuing insecurity of tenure in the villages. 3.82 Since reintroduction of HRS the economy has grown rapidly with Township and Village Enterprises (TVEs) contributing an increasing share of rural GDP. Many farmers, particularly in the southeast coastal provinces, now engage in agriculture only part-time and earn a minor portion of their income from farming activities. They have minimal incentive for productivity enhancing investments or practices (terracing, soil amelioration, and degradation-prevention measures). Such farmers are less interested in agricultural productivity than in retaining their land use right as a social safety net. 3.83 Other farmers have turned to the production of higher-profitability commodities such as fruits, vegetables, livestock and aquatic products. Meanwhile, those farmers who produce grain, oilseeds, cotton, etc., are at a serious income disadvantage; not because of 3 World Bank. "China-Yellow River Basin Investment Planning Study" (Two Volumes). Report No. 11 146-CHA. Agriculture Operations Division, China and Mongolia Dept., EAP Region, June 30, 1993. 3 Prosterman, Roy and Tim Hanstad; "Land Reform: Neglected, Yet Essential," Rural Development Institute Report No. 87, April 1995. -33- scale diseconomies but because of an inappropriate land and labor resource combination. Rural incomes will diverge even further unless grain producers can gain access to additional land. If these farmers had access to the land of the part-time farmers mentioned above, for which financial compensation could be made, national productivity would improve. 3.84 The lack of a land use market constrains productivity and food security. The various land use experiments underway, including shareholding and leasing of village contracted land, need to be expanded and institutionalized to facilitate the rapid development of a land use market. -34- 4. FOOD SUPPLIES A. DOMESTIC GRAIN PROJECTIONS 4.1 In an effort to estimate future food output two modeling approaches, an economic model and a constraints model, were used to estimate future production. The GTAP general equilibrium model was modified to separately evaluate seven agricultural subsectors including rice, wheat, coarse grain, nongrain crops, livestock, meat and milk, and other food products. The extensive aggregation required to reduce general equilibrium models to manageable proportions results in some loss of detail but ensures overall consistency that partial equilibrium models lack. Details of the model are provided in Annex 7. In this model agricultural growth is driven by investments and TFP growth. 4.2 Model results indicate that in 2020, total grain production would be over 800 million tons and meat would be 81 million tons (Anngx7, Tables 7-8). The projections indicate coarse grain production would increase the most, reaching 286 million tons; rice-254 million tons, and wheat-153 million tons. These production estimates are extraordinarily high. To test the sensitivity of grain production and imports to medium term TFP growth they were estimated under high (1.5 percent) and low (0.5 percent) TFP growth rates. As under investment would lead to a lower TFP growth rate, the results from that estimation are included in Table 4.1. 4.3 Water is so severely limiting in Northern China that the 1.0 percent TFP growth rate may not be maintained even with increased investments in research. Consequently, a physical constraints model was developed to evaluate the impact of various water options on agricultural output in the nine water regions.39 The model is purely a physical constraints model and does not contain economic variables. The model was estimated using three different yield growth rates40 under favorable water availability. (The assumptions underlying the model and alternative scenarios evaluated are described in Annex 5.) 3 The nine water regions, I - IX, are sequentially, Northeast, Haihe, Huai/Shandong, Yellow, Yangtze, South, Southeast, Southwest, and Northwest. A description of the regions and their component provinces is contained in Annx.5. 40 A continuously increasing yield growth rate of 1.0 percent annually was the high rate; a yield growth rate of 1.0 percent until 2010 with subsequent growth rates of 0.5 percent was the base rate; and the low rate was a yield growth rate of 1.0 percent up to 2000 with subsequent growth rates of 0.5 percent. The assumptions underlying the model and alternative scenarios evaluated are described in Annex. -35- TABLE 4.1: GRAIN PRODUCTION ESTIMATES FOR 2020 GTAP Model Constraints Model TFP Growth 1.0% 0.5% High Base Low ----------------------------------(million tons)------------------------------- Rice* 363 342 313 298 283 Wheat 153 119 151 144 137 Coarse grains 286 256 203 194 186 Total 802 717 667 636 606 * Rice is milled equivalent in GTAP model and is paddy in the constraints model. 4.4 Estimated total grain output for 2020 in the constraints model, for all cases, are considerably lower than the GTAP model estimates. A major difference between the model results is the reversed importance of rice and coarse grains. Based on rainfall and water runoff statistics, the constraints model concluded that irrigation water will be limited in the Northern com producing regions but will remain sufficient in the Southern rice producing regions. The implication is that rice will become an important feed grain as well as a food grain. In many locations in southern China, low quality hybrid rice is cheaper than coarse grains and is already used as a feed grain. As farmers gain experience in corn cultivation and new varieties specific to southern climates are developed, com production will expand in the south. But producing rice as feed grain will likely continue-despite its lower feeding value-as hybrid rice yields are double the corn yields in this region. 4.5 The constraints model can evaluate the impact on agriculture of alternative water allocations for nonagricultural (municipal and industrial) use, alternative yield growth rates (as a proxy for investment in research), and change in effective irrigated area (as a proxy for water investments). The rate of industrial growth is the most influential factor in determining future irrigation water availability-and food production. The faster industry grows, the less water remains for agricultural use. The location of industrial growth affects agriculture differentially. Rapid industrialization in water regions I and II would exacerbate irrigation water shortages; alternatively, industrialization in the water surplus areas of southern and southeastern China would not deprive agriculture of water, but the impact of transferring cultivated land to industrial use would be greater as the multiple cropping index is higher in the south than in the drier and colder north. 4.6 Results from the model clearly indicate the need for investments in water development, saving, and recycling to meet municipal and industrial requirements and efficiently provide agriculture with incremental water supplies. In 2020, marginal agricultural impact of the proposed South-North water transfer schemes (Eastern and -36- Middle routes). The marginal production impact would be about 15 million tons of grain, 10 million tons of vegetables, and various tonnages of other crops with a 1995 value of Y 57 billion ($6.7 billion), yielding a crude IRR of 20 percent for agriculture (i.e., no effort was made to determine incremental benefits to municipal and industrial users along the canal routes). The impact could be greater if scarce water were applied optimally; however, it is assumed that water shortages would be shared for equity reasons. 4.7 Besides greater investment in water resources, the model also indicates the need to invest in: (a) land reclamation sufficient to maintain the cultivated and irrigated land base; (b) agricultural research to ensure crop yields continue to grow and multiple cropping expands; and (c) agricultural extension to transfer research results into farmer actions. The extension issue is particularly important relative to improving fertilizer nutrient balance because this would immediately increase productivity and provide a higher base on which to build future productivity gains. Unless fertilizer nutrient balance is improved, grain supply deficits will likely double. 4.8 In the base case scenario,4' of investments and water availability, cereal supply is estimated to be 636 million tons of rough grain in 2020 assuming the cultivated land base remains constant. In addition, 486 million tons of fruits and vegetables and 50 million tons of oilseeds would be produced. However, this will fall short of the anticipated needs of 695 million tons of grain. About 60 million tons of wheat and feed grains will need to be obtained from the international market. About two-thirds of the imports will be feed grains. If investments are inadequate to maintain the resource base and increase productivity, reduced production will require that imports be even greater. B. THE INTERNATIONAL GRAIN MARKET 4.9 During the 1990s, world grain production has averaged over 1.7 billion tons. Coarse grains comprised the largest share, followed by wheat and milled rice. About 11 percent of production enters international trade. Wheat is the most widely traded grain, both in quantity terms and proportion of production, followed by coarse grains and rice. China accounts for about 20 percent of world grain production (Table 4.3). China 's participation in the world market has been modest as both a net importer and a net exporter over the past 15 years, with neither accounting for more than 5 percent of international trade. However, the world market has the potential to supply China with substantially larger quantities of grain in the future. 41 Eleven of the variables in the model (total water availability, industrial demand for water, return flows of municipal and industrial water, usable water returns, drainage water reuse, water use efficiency, effective irrigated area, rainfed multiple cropping index, cultivated area, rainfed and irrigated yield growth) were included as low, medium, high options. Three other variables (two South-North water transfers routes, and balanced fertilizer application) were included as yes-no options. -37- TABLE 4.2: WORLD GRAIN PRODUCTION AND TRADE (ANNUAL AVERAGE 1992/93-1996/97) China's Share of Commodity World Production China Production World Trade World Production (million tons) (million tons) (million tons) (percent) Coarse Grain 839.7 100.6 90.3 12.2 Wheat 551.1 115.0 98.7 20.8 Rice (milled) 367.0 128.7 12.1 35.8 Total 1,759.6 344.3 201.1 19.8 Source: United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agriculture Service, "Grain: World Markets and Trade," FG 10-96, October 1996. 4.10 The world markets for wheat and coarse grains are the largest and most well integrated with active cash and futures markets for wheat, maize, barley, oats and rye. The world market for rice is smaller and less well integrated. Primarily centered in Asia, it operates as a cash market among private traders and government agencies, and is highly segmented with strong preferences for rice classes and qualities based on incomes, prices and cultures. The world wheat market is more homogeneous than rice, but still has many classes of wheat ranging from feed wheat for livestock to high quality wheat for bread, pasta and pastries. Coarse grains are used primarily for animal feed and are traded based on feed value. Potential Grain Export Supplies 4.11 The potential supply of grain available from the world market is substantially larger than the current world trade of 200 million tons. However, stagnant world import demand since the late 1970s has delayed development of this potential. The traditional grain exporters accounted for 90 percent of world grain exports in the first half of the 1990s.42 Domestic per capita consumption is already high in these countries, and except for Thailand, population growth is low; therefore, production growth is primarily a function of their ability to export. With reduced export demand they reduced grain crop areas by 34.5 million hectares from the highs of the early 1980s to keep from accumulating stocks. The production potential of this land was roughly 115 million tons. These lands could be returned to production almost immediately if there were incentives to do so, as indicated by increases in 1996 cereal plantings and harvest. 4.12 In addition to the cropland removed from grain production in these exporting countries, there are other potential sources of export supplies. The former Soviet Union has reduced cropland used for grain production by 27 million hectares over the same 42 The traditional grain exporters and their share of total world exporters were: the United States (42%), the European Union (22%), Canada (11%), Australia (7%), Argentina (6%), and Thailand (2%). However, the United States overwhelmingly dominates the course grain market. -38- period due to reduced demand, and to lower input availability. In addition, yields declined sharply due to fuel, fertilizer and machinery shortages, and marketing and transportation constraints. Total production declined by 86 million tons between 1990 and 1995. With proper incentives, some of this production could return. 4.13 An additional source of grain production which could be available for export is in Argentina. Argentina is sparsely populated with vast areas of grassland that could be converted to grain production if export markets and prices were favorable. These grasslands have been compared climatically to the midwestern United States. Argentina has 142 million hectares of permanent pasture and only 2.2 million hectares of permanent crops (FAO, 1995). The pasture is flat delta land which is primarily used for cattle grazing. Only a small portion of the land receives fertilizers, pesticides or herbicides. Much of this land could be used for crop production under improved production practices. Current grain yields in Argentina reflect the low input use and averaged 2.76 tons/ha from 1990 to 1995 compared to 4.84 tons/ha in the United States. Even at current low yields, the production potential of the pasture land in Argentina is large. However, such potential would require substantial capital and time to develop. 4.14 Grain stocks are rebuilding but remain low-limiting immediate expansion of exports. Current export grain stocks in the major exporting countries are about 100 million tons, some 40 million tons above the previous low stock levels of 60 million tons in 1995/96 (USDA 1997). Under these stock conditions world trade could immediately expand by roughly 40 million tons, but over the longer term the potential for increased grain supplies is large. For example, world grain production increased by 7.5 percent in 1996/97 in response to higher prices, but production in the five largest exporters increased by 20 percent. World Grain Prices and Price Volatility 4.15 World grain prices have historically declined over long periods relative to overall consumer prices, however, they have also increased sharply over short periods of two to three years. Real average annual wheat, maize and rice prices declined by 49.8 percent, 53.6 percent and 58.8 percent respectively from the 1970s to the 1990s (World Bank, 1997). But, prices increased sharply between 1971 and 1974, when real prices of all major grains increased by 50 to 100 percent. This was an unusually large increase created in large part by a rapid rise in energy and fertilizer prices. Also, between 1993 and early 1996 real prices of wheat and corn increased by 32.8 percent and 45.7 percent, respectively, but subsequently declined (Table 4.4). These price increases were due to unusually low world stock levels combined with a 1995 drought in the southwest wheat producing regions of the United States. The price increases were even greater for importing countries than the numbers suggest because the major grain exporting countries such as the United States and the European Union had been subsidizing grain export prices in an effort to increase export market share. When prices began to rise and export supplies dwindled, the subsidies were terminated. -39- TABLE 4.3: WORLD GRAIN PRICES, SELECTED PERIODS 1991-96 ($ nominal) Period Wheat Rice Maize 1991 (annual avg.) 128.66 314.40 107.40 1993 (annual avg.) 140.24 270.00 102.10 1996 (Jan-Jun avg.) 231.40 349.60 183.00 1996 (Dec avg.) 175.70 319.20 117.70 Source: World Bank, IEC. 4.16 Real grain price declines are forecast over the next 10 to 15 years according to recent studies by the World Bank, FAO and IFPRI.43 These forecasts assume that historical yield increases continue and that population growth slows as forecast by the United Nations. However, the forecasts do account for increased demand due to rising incomes. 4.17 Future grain price volatility is likely to increase from the levels of the past several decades because of policy changes in the major exporting countries. These changes include both those made due to the Uruguay Round GATT Agreement on Agriculture and those made unilaterally in the United States and the European Union for budgetary reasons. Policy changes in the major grain exporting countries were largely responsible for the sharp declines in world grain stocks from 465 million tons in 1986 to 245 million tons in 1995. These changes will keep world grain stocks low in the future because the United States government will no longer hold significant levels of grain stocks and stock holding is expected to be lower in the European Union. Lower stocks could lead to greater price volatility because the buffer against a poor harvest is less. 4.18 The major grain exporting countries have been highly responsive to international prices and the level of world demand. This was demonstrated during the 1970s, when prices increased and grain trade expanded, and during the 1980s when grain trade stagnated. Following the rapid rise in grain trade during the 1970s, the major exporting countries increased grain production in anticipation of continued expansion of world grain trade. However, when grain trade declined during the early 1980s, these countries were faced with large grain stocks, falling prices and stagnant world grain trade. The major exporting countries adjusted by reducing grain area, cutting prices and reducing stocks. 43 Islam, Nurul, ed. Population and Food in the Early Twenty-First Century: Meeting Future Food Demand of an Increasing Population." International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C., 1995. -40- Large Country Effect 4.19 If China were to increase grain imports significantly and rapidly, its actions would increase world grain market prices. But if imports were gradually increased over a number of years, the price impact would be marginaL This large country effect has been quantified by a number of economists. The impact of China's imports on world grain market prices is quantified by the world export supply curve facing China. The price elasticity of the export supply curve shows the percentage change in the quantity supplied from the world market to a percentage change in the world market price. 4.20 The level of grain stocks are important because they reflect the ease with which grain exports can be expanded. During the mid-1980s, the major grain exporting countries had carryover grain stocks of 260 million tons while world grain trade was less than 200 million tons. This large reserve of grain could be used to expand exports without significant price increases. In contrast, current world grain stocks are about 100 million tons and could not meet a significant increase in exports; a significant increase would require expanded production. Consequently, the price elasticity of export supply is lower than during the mid-1980s. The importance of stocks makes it difficult to express the price elasticity as a single value, but in the current situation of low world grain stocks the export supply elasticity may roughly be estimated at 1.1." In the longer term (say after five years), export supply is more elastic because producers would have more time to expand production. Market Access 4.21 Market access is an important concern of countries which import a significant share of their food. This concern has often led to policies aimed at a high degree of self- sufficiency. Unfortunately, the record of the major grain exporters is poor. This was demonstrated in 1996 when the European Union imposed a wheat export tax to reduce exports and prevent domestic prices from rising. In 1973, the United States took similar action by embargoing oilseed exports to prevent higher consumer prices. Targeted embargoes have also been used against individual countries as was the case with the 1974 grain moratoria imposed by the United States against the former Soviet Union to suspend sales of 2.3 million tons of corn and 0.9 million tons of wheat due to deteriorating US crop prospects. Less than a year later, the United States imposed a second grain moratoria against the former Soviet Union and Poland because of continuing poor US 44 Carter, Colin A. And Walter H. Gardiner, Editors. "Elasticities in International Agricultural Trade," Westview Press, Boulder and London, 1988. Consider the export supply elasticity of the five major grain exporters. The 1990-95 average grain production of these countries was 583 million tons, domestic consumption was 432 million tons and exports were 185 million tons. If we assume a domestic demand and supply elasticity of 0.2 and that stock holdings will remain constant, then the export supply elasticity is 1.10. If we assume a domestic demand and supply elasticity of 0.1 then the export supply elasticity is 0.55, and if the domestic demand and supply elasticity is 0.3 then the export supply elasticity is 1.65. -41- crop production prospects. The 1975 moratorium was lifted after the United States signed separate five-year trade agreements with both countries in the fall of 1975. Exports have also been used for political reasons as was demonstrated in 1980 when the United States embargoed grains, other foods and agrochemical exports to the former Soviet Union in protest of the invasion of Afghanistan. But this 16-month embargo was largely ineffective because alternative supplies were available. 4.22 The record shows that exporting countries often limit food exports if prices rise sharply. Unless an importing country has a long-term agreement, supplies from individual countries are not assured. Further, the supplies are most likely to be unavailable when prices rise sharply-precisely when market access is most important. The best defense against such action by importing countries is to diversify imports among competing suppliers and to enter into long-term agreements that specify market access conditions. Scenarios 4.23 The foregoing indicates that with appropriate incentives grain output in the exporting countries (plus the former Soviet Union-FSU) could increase by 200 million tons and would bring them to their previous maximum output levels. However, most regions of the world are net importers and will require increased imports over the coming decades. Thus, the real issue is whether the traditional exporters (plus FSU) could meet all the incremental import requirements without large price increases. 4.24 Other analysts41 have concluded that most of the incremental demand in the early 21st Century will be met from within-country, except for Japan-Korea-Taiwan. Nevertheless, import requirements will triple (i.e., 200 percent increase) between the base period (1990-94) and 2030. To meet this requirement, production in the exporting countries would need to grow by 1.1 to 1.4 percent per year; a readily attainable growth rate if investments in research are maintained. The problems of food insecurity in other developing countries will continue to be more related to their poverty than to limits on the world's capacity to produce food. 4s Alexandratos, Nikos; "China's Consumption of Cereals and Capacity of the Rest of the World to Increase Exports," Food Policy (forthcoming). -42- 5. FOOD BALANCE OPTIONS AND CONCLUSIONS 5.1 China has the potential to remain food secure over the next 2 to 3 decades if various reforms are implemented and a number of investments are made in agriculture and infrastructure. In the coming decades, China is expected to rely more on market forces to signal investment, production and consumption decisions and, after joining WTO, will integrate more fully into the international marketplace. If the measures are successful, domestic food production will largely keep pace with population growth. Although household food security may remain problematic for poverty groups. 5.2 As a more open trade regime and competitive market, both China and China's trading partners will benefit through exploiting their comparative advantage. Increased incomes and urbanization will change diet composition; direct grain consumption (per capita) will decline and consumption of livestock products (indirect grain consumption), vegetable oils, sugar, fruits, and vegetables will increase. China can substantially increase domestic grain production, but irrigation water shortages will limit expansion and the country will have to increasingly rely on the international market for incremental wheat and feed grains. A. OPTIONS 5.3 The best estimate of China's 2020 cereal demand is about 606 million tons (695 million tons of unmilled trade grain), but actual requirements depend upon a number of uncertain factors (para. 2.15). A major portion of the incremental needs can be met from domestic resources if investments are made to: * Improve agricultural research and extension to maintain total factor productivity growth at a minimum of 1.0 percent per year. It is critical to rapidly achieve balanced fertilizer applications. * Develop water resources to enable aggregate irrigation water supplies (including recycling and reuse) to increase by an average of 0.5 percent annually between 1995 and 2020. This will doubtlessly require water transfers from the Yangtze to the Yellow river basin. * Reclaim and develop land to maintain the current stocks of arable and irrigated land. * Develop dedicated-integrated bulk handling port and rail facilities to transport larger quantities of domestic and imported grains. (Without investments in such systems even greater investments would be needed in covered rail wagons, bag handling equipment, and flat storage as well as in suboptimal agricultural production and water resource development throughout China.) -43- 5.4 A series of policy reforms centered on less government intervention in the cereal sector, market determined prices, and open competitive marketing and trading regimes for inputs and cereals must accompany these investments. With these investments and reforms, China will likely produce 90 percent of grain requirements, and rely on international suppliers for the balance-about 60 million tons of grain by 2020-but if investments fall short, more imports will be required. The major grain exporting countries can readily supply this amount, but unless China invests heavily in port facilities and bulk logistical systems, imported grain will be extremely costly because even greater investments would be needed to improve the current outmoded handling systems-covered rail wagons, bag handling equipment, and flat storage. B. DOMESTIC GRAIN SUPPLIES Policy Constraints and Options 5.5 Government would like to maintain 95 percent grain self-sufficiency, but to limit future imports to 5 percent of consumption requirements would be inefficient and costly. Domestic price increases and import tariffs of 40 percent would be required to meet that objective. Pricing and Marketing 5.6 To improve food security, grain production, and marketing efficiency, China must decrease government intervention and increase reliance on market forces to determine prices. Market competition for both inputs and outputs is essential to ensure efficient farmgate prices and marketing margins. To achieve and maintain marketing efficiency both GGE and nongovernment marketing agencies must operate under the same constraints, efficiency incentives, and commercial standards. To ensure markets are integrated and farmers receive proper price signals, the Government must discontinue the spatial and temporal monopoly/monopsony privileges of the GGE and eliminate below market price State procurement. It must also relax countryside procurement constraints placed on GGEs from deficit areas and on private traders. Instead, the Government would procure grain for poverty groups, military forces, civil servants, strategic reserves, etc., at competitive "market" prices and transfer their policy functions to other noncommercial agencies. Similarly, CNAMPC would lose its monopoly fertilizer marketing rights and compete with other marketing agencies. 5.7 Water is the major constraint to expanding food production in China. But inappropriately low irrigation water prices have encouraged inefficient water use and leads to water shortages. To improve water use efficiency, including irrigation, the Government must increase water prices to cover supply costs and then establish a timetable to increase prices to long-run marginal cost levels. Also, market-determined freight tariff rates would encourage more efficient transport modes to develop, such as bulk barge carriers. -44- Price Stabilization and Strategic Reserve Programs are Costly 5.8 Price stabilization is possible with considerably less market participation than the 70-80 percent of marketed surpluses the GGEs currently procure. If the State wishes to stabilize prices and maintain strategic grain reserves these activities should be managed and operated by a government agency which is completely separate from commercial GGE operations. Price stabilization programs operate price bands which generally follow the long-term international price trends; otherwise, costs will become exorbitant and unsustainable. But during periods of volatile prices, large short-term costs may be incurred even though long term trends are followed. The price stabilization programs in India and Indonesia rely on the private sector to carry out most marketing operations and government procurement is a small share of marketed surpluses. Changes in Land Policies could Boost Food Production 5.9 Changes in land policies could provide incentives to increase land productivity and food security and to improve rural income distribution by: (a) allowing rural residents to either, lease their land cultivation rights to others (when off-farm activities provide most of their income) or lease cultivation rights from others when underemployed on their own farms (which also would improve rural income distribution); and (b) encouraging the private sector to invest in land reclamation. The rural land experiments underway should be evaluated and consolidated, legalized and publicized to enable farmers and land developers to understand the alternatives and opportunities. International Trade Policies are too Rigid 5.10 The monopoly trading corporations have procured and imported fertilizer and cereal grains at c.i.f. prices very close to international prices. But farmers have not been provided with the appropriate balance of fertilizers and, because supply-demand conditions change between planning and execution, planned international grain transactions has exacerbated domestic supply volatility. Planned trade and trade monopolies should be discontinued so that open trading could support rapid responses (e.g., facilitate appropriate imports and permit timely exports and prevent unnecessarily large corn stocks from accumulating in the northeast provinces) and ensure that imported commodities are procured and handled efficiently. Research and Resource Investments 5.11 Agricultural research is an excellent investment, but research must be prioritized and research budgets and agricultural research intensity should be increased. China has had a dynamic agricultural research system, but over the past 15 years agricultural research intensity has declined raising doubts about its ability to sustain long-term growth in total factor productivity. -45- 5.12 Research indicates that balanced fertilizer application would increase land productivity by 12 to 15 pei,nt on average-producing an additional 50 to 60 million tons of cereals. Whether farmers' constraints to applying balanced fertilizers lie within the agricultural extension system or in the fertilizer market structure, they must be identified and resolved. 5.13 China's fertilizer industry will require large investments and long lead times to develop. China has sufficient feedstock material to develop large scale ammonia-urea manufacturing plants to meet incremental nitrogen requirements and replace a portion of the low analysis ABC plants. Also, the richer phosphate deposits are being exploited but earlier planned investments in accompanying TSP manufacturing plants are lacking. 5.14 Water is the most limiting food production resource and, therefore, a priority for investment. Increasingly, water will be diverted from agricultural to urban and industrial uses and large investments will be required to not only maintain but increase irrigation water supplies. A first step is to improve efficiency by treating and recycling municipal waste-water, lining canals, and improving on-farm application. Municipalities and industries must be required to invest in wastewater treatment to permit environmentally safe recycling. 5.15 Water resources development is very costly and typically has high social returns but low financial returns. Except for small pond/reservoir based irrigation systems, only the government has the capacity to undertake new investments. This includes water transfers from the Yangtze to the Yellow River Basin which will require long planning and implementation horizons and huge investments, but appear to be efficient. 5.16 China's per capita cultivated land base is quite small, but satellite imagery indicates it is 40 percent larger than official statistics indicate. This means that fertilizer application rates and crop yields are also 40 percent below reported levels, which represents tremendous potential for increasing productivity and production. Newly reclaimed land mitigates the land lost to urban encroachment and infrastructure construction, but it is less productive than the prime agricultural land it replaces. Continued investments in land reclamation are required to maintain the land base. 5.17 Increasing urbanization and increasing cereal-based livestock production will increase the quantity of grain marketed, handled and transported. Investment in improved handling infrastructure is essential to efficiently move these increased quantities of grain. This includes dedicated bulk grain handling logistical systems involving inland and coastal waterway, rail, transit storage and intermodal interfacing to rapidly and efficiently move the larger volumes. Investment Summary 5.18 To efficiently produce 636 million tons of cereals and import another 60 million tons, large investments will be required in addition to normal maintenance and capital replacement. Watei resource development involving South-North transfers, improved -46- irrigation canals and distribution systems, and municipal-industrial wastewater treatment will require the largest investment. Other large investments will be needed in transportation-handling infrastructure, including ports, bulk rail and waterway transport and ancillary bulk handling equipment and in fertilizer manufacturing. Lastly, investment and recurrent budgets for agricultural research and extension will need to be increased. Rough estimates of incremental investment requirements are indicated in Table . TABLE 5.1: ESTIMATED INCREMENTAL INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS, 1995-2020 ($ million, constant 1995 prices) Water Resources: 64,000 South-North Water Transfer 25,000 Irrigation Distribution Improvement Li 39,000 Municipal-Industrial Wastewater Treatment n.a. Infrastructure: 1,385 Ports 600 Bulk Rail Wagons 625 Bulk Barges 90 Inland Terminals, with bulk handling equipment 70 Fertilizer Manufacturing Plants 5,000 5,000 Agricultural Research Lb 25,660 25,660 Agricultural Extension n.a. Total 96,045 Zg To maintain the trend of the past decade investments in Water Conservancy should increase by about $120 million annually; that is, incremental 2020 expenditures should be $3.0 billion more (in 1995 terms) than 1995 expenditures. Ih To maintain the trend of the Reform period, agricultural research investments should increase by five percent annually; that is, 2020 investment expenditures should increase by $1.75 billion (in 1995 terms). This may or may not be sufficient to maintain TFP growth at 1.0 percent per year. Incentives for Nonstate Investments are Essential 5.19 Given the large variety and size of investments required to provide future food security, incentives for nongovernment investments are needed. * International seed companies might invest in research in China if permitted and if intellectual property rights were strengthened, but most agricultural research will need to be funded from domestic public resources. * International fertilizer companies might invest in China's domestic industry. This would partially resolve the fertilizer investment constraint and ensure the latest mining and manufacturing technology was employed. * Land reclamation and long-term productivity enhancing measures require incentives for nonstate sectors to invest. These might include extended cultivation rights or the privilege of leasing out cultivation rights and compensation for land reclamation companies through land sales or leases -47- (with government retaining ownership) perhaps for nonagricultural use. Longer term farmer contracts may induce them to terrace or undertake other land improvement activities. * Domestic marketing and transportation infrastructure incentives for nonstate investors are difficult to design, but large domestic and international corporations (e.g., Chai Tai) may be prepared to invest in bulk transit storage and bulk barge or rail wagons if these are dedicated to their operations. Also, if the grain market was more open, international grain corporations may be prepared to invest in ports and bulk handling equipment. Without major private sector grain market participation, transport and logistical investments in high volume grain corridors would likely depend on the public treasury. C. THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET 5.20 International grain stocks have been rebuilt to about 100 million tons from the low levels of 1995/96. This provides a small margin for increased trade. But, the major grain exporting countries could rapidly produce and export much larger quantities of grain if they expected that growth in export demand would be maintained. 5.21 International grain prices are expected to continue in their long-term decline. But short-term volatility is likely to be greater than during previous decades because the exporting countries have discontinued or reduced government storage; thus, there is a smaller buffer to mitigate drought or calamity-induced shortages. Therefore, it would be to China's advantage to enter into long-term contractual arrangements for specified quantities of grain with grain traders from exporting countries. 5.22 China's 14 major grain ports have a theoretical import capacity of 23 million tons; they operated at 85 percent of capacity in 1995 when total imports were 20 million tons. While these and other ports could handle additional quantities of grain it would be very costly to import beyond design capacity as marginal costs increase rapidly beyond that point. Thus, it is crucial to construct deep-water ports capable of handling 80,000 dwt vessels and to widely link intermodal bulk grain logistical systems with port facilities. -49- ANNEX 1 ANNEX 1: DEMAND 1. Price and income elasticities have been computed by several scholars for both rural and urban residents. The coefficients were derived using a variety of estimation models and cover a wide range of values. The general characteristics of the models are discussed in a working paper by Wen S. Chern, "Estimated Elasticities of Chinese Grain Demand: Review Assessment and New Evidence" (1997). This working paper also derived estimates of expenditure and price elasticities using a Linear Expenditure model for several food products using data from the SSB, household Expenditure Surveys (1993-1995). Estimated elasticities for urban residents are as follows: Grain Pork Poultry Other Meats Expenditure Elasticity 0.15 1.28 2.37 3.13 Price Elasticity -0.16 -0.97 -1.48 -2.36 2. The coefficients from other studies are summarized in the following tables. Elasticity Coefficients for Rural Residents as estimated by Lewis & Fan, et Halbrendt Fan, et Huang & Gao, et Huang, Andrews al. et al.-.a al. RozelleLg al. La et al. (1989) (1994) (1994) (1995) (1996) (1996) (1997) Income Elasticities All Food 0.62 0.71 Grain 0.14 0.58 0.57 0.52 0.25 Rice 0.19 0.50 .036 Wheat 0.39 0.77 Meats 1.10 1.09 0.90 1.19 Pork 1.15 0.77 Poultry 1.27 0.29 0.85 Price Elasticities All Food -0.53 Grain -0.14 -.23 -0.52 -0.99 Rice -0.55 -0.63 -0.20 Wheat -0.46 -0.54 Meats -0.60 -0.66 -0.31 -0.69 -0.30 Pork -0.98 Poultry 0.09 -0.53 La Expenditure elasticity. -50- ANNEX 1 Elasticity Coefficients for Urban Residents as estimated by Lewis & Wang & Chern & Wu, et Shi, Huang, Andrews Chern Z Wang La al. et al./a Chen a et al. (1989) (1992) (1994) (1995) (1995) (1996) (1997) Income Elasticities Food 0.76 Staple Food 0.31 Grain 0.47 -0.06 -0.03 0.99 0.09 Rice 0.37 0.82 0.14 Wheat Meat 0.47 Pork 1.30 0.44 0.38 0.78 Poultry 2.60 0.72 0.99 Price Elasticities Food -0.67 Staple Food -0.26 Grain -1.27 0.04 -1.11 -0.57 Rice -0.70 -2.43 -0.20 Wheat Meat -0.54 -0.30 Pork -0.97 -0.16 -0.82 Poultry -1.82 -1.02 Za Expenditure elasticity. -51- ANNEX 1 REFERENCES Chen, Jing. "Food Consumption and Projection of Agricultural Demand/Supply Balance for 1996-2005 in China," unpublished Master Thesis, Department of Agricultural Economics, The Ohio State University, 1996. Chern, Wen S. and Guijing Wang. "Engel Function and Complete Food Demand System for Chinese Urban Households," China Economic Review, 5 (Spring 1994):35-57. Fan, Shenggen, Gail Cramer, and Eric Wailes. "Food Demand in Rural China: Evidence from Rural Household Survey," Agricultural Economics, 11 (1994):61-69. Fan, Shenggen, Eric J. Wailes and Gain L. Cramer. "Household Demand in Rural China; A two-Stage LES-AIDS Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 77 (February 1995):54-62. Gao, X.M., Eric J. Wailes, and Gail L. Cramer. "A Two-Stage Rural Household Demand Analysis: Microdata Evidence from Jiangsu Province, China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 78 (August, 1996):604-613. Halbrendt, Catherine, Francis Tuan. Conrado Gempesaw and Dimphna Dolk-Etz, "Rural Chinese Food Consumption," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 76, (November 1994):794-799. Huang, Jikun, and Scott Rozelle. "Market Development and Food Consumption in China's Rural Areas," paper presented in the Young Chinese Scholars' Conference on Chinese Rural Development, Nanjing, China, October 14-16, 1996 (Chinese). Huang, Jikun, Scott Rozelle, and Mark W. Rosegrant. "China's Food Economy to the twenty-first Century: Supply, Demand, and Trade," Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Discussion Paper 19, International Food Policy Research Institute, January 1997. Lewis, Philip and Neil Andrews. "Household Demand in China" Applied Economics, 21 (1989):793-807. Shi, H., R. Mittelhammer, and T.I. Wahl. "Aggregate Food Demand Analysis for a Transitional Economy: An Application to Chinese Household Expenditure Data", Journal ofFood Distribution Research, 26 (2) September 1995):20-27. Wang, Zhi and Wen S. Chern. "Effect of Rationing on the Consumption Behavior of Chinese Urban Households during 1981-1987" Journal of Comparative Economics, 16 (1992):1-26. Wu, Yamrui Li and S. Nicholas Samuel. "Food Consumption in Urban China: An Empirical Analysis, Applied Economics, 27 (1995):509-515 -52- ANNEX 1 Appendix A 1. The calculations for estimating nonfood grain requirements are based on the following: Feed Grains 2. An estimated 84 million tons of grains were used in 1992 to produce the meat consumed. Estimates of 2020, incremental consumption, and incremental feed requirements are listed below. Per Capita Total Feed Cony. Incremental Increment Ratio Feed Meat Cons 92 Cons 20 Increment (kg/yr) (million tons) (million tons) pork 22.6* 36.7 22.0 35.6 3.2 113.8 other red meat 11.3 6.8 10.9 0.5 5.5 poultry 8.5 5.1 8.2 2.1 17.2 Total 136.5 * Figure includes three categories: pork, other red meat, poultry. 3. The incremental 136.5 million tons added to the 100 million tons used to produce the 1992 base results in 2020 requirements of 236.5 million tons. Seed Requirements 4. Seeding rates are based on known technology, recommended rates and prevailing (1995) grain areas. These are contained in the following table. Hybrid rice seeding rates are substantially lower than regular high yielding varieties because of their extraordinary tillering capacity. It was assumed that 75 percent of the rice area would be planted to hybrids. area seeding rate seed required (million ha) (kg/ha) (million ton) Rice-HYV 7.7 120 0.9 -Hybrid 23.0 25 0.6 wheat 28.8 120 3.5 coarse grains 40.6 40 1.6 Total 100.1 -53- ANNEX2 ANNEX 2: CROP AGRICULTURE STATE OF TECHNOLOGY AND PRACTICE 1. The Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) is the main agency responsible for agricultural research. Some aspects of basic agricultural research is carried out by the Chinese Academy of Science (CAS). Recently MOA underwent some reorganization to separate administrative/regulatory from operational/commercial matters (Chart 1). The National Agrotechnical Extension Service Center and the Animal Husbandry Technical Service Center were formally established following the reorganization. The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), which reports to MOA, has 37 national institutes and research centers responsible for agricultural research in China. At the provincial level, the 30 agricultural academies are organized along similar lines to CAAS. At the prefectural level there is also a network of institutes undertaking applied research aimed at solving local problems. Some research is also carried out by the agricultural universities. Most of the research is focused on rice, wheat and corn and to lesser extent on soybean. Initially the emphasis was on varietal improvement. China has had a fairly strong program for development of new varieties and pioneered the development and extension of high yielding dwarf and hybrid rice varieties in the 1960s and mid-1970s. Despite the high yields already achieved for rice, there is still potential for further increases. According to rice experts in China, the next breakthrough is likely to be two- line hybrid rice. Chinese rice breeders are presently working on the development of Indica-Japonica hybrids which are likely to raise yields to new levels. Recently there has been a rapid development in corn breeding and more than 80 percent of the corn planted is hybrid corn. There is a wide range of high-yielding wheat varieties and high-yielding soybean varieties are also available. In the 1980s, thirteen new varieties of soybean were developed by the Institute of Oil Crops, CAAS, with per ha output above 2,250 kg, the highest around 3,000 kg. The protein content of the new varieties range between 40 to 44 percent and in three to four years the area planted reached 6.6 million ha. Before the 8th Five Year Plan the focus was on breeding with a shift to quality aspects following the 8th Plan. Apart from quality, emphasis is given to improve insect and disease resistance, lodging resistance, early maturing, cold tolerance and drought resistant varieties. 2. The standard of agronomic practices of Chinese farmers is well-known, and yields of most grain crops are comparable to those of neighboring producing countries (e.g., rice yield is about 60 percent higher than the world's average yield and close to the level achieved by most advanced countries). The area planted to wheat remained fairly stable from about 28.8 million ha in 1988, increasing to 30.9 million ha in 1991 and falling back to 28.8 million ha in 1995. Close to 70 percent of the wheat production is located in the North and MLYR regions (Statistical Annex Tables 2.2 and 3.2). Since 1988, production rose from 85.4 million tons to 102.2 million tons, a total increase of 20 percent or an -54- ANNEX2 annual increase of 2.4 percent. In the wheat producing regions, spring wheat is planted in March-April and harvested in July/August, and accounts for about 15 percent of the wheat areas mainly in the north, northeast and northwest regions. Yields of wheat have improved from about 3.0 tons/ha in 1988 to 3.5 tons/ha in 1995. The increase in production and yield can be attributed to the adoption of improved varieties and increase use of nitrogen fertilizers. Main production constraints for spring wheat are lack of fertilizer supply and inadequate and inappropriate fertilizer use. Winter wheat which accounts for about 85 percent of the wheat area sown, extends from the north covering Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and Shanxi; the Huang-Huai winter wheat area which covers the lower and middle reaches of the Huanghe (in the provinces of Anhui, Hebei, Henan, North Jiangsu, and Shandong accounting for 40 percent of the area under winter wheat and 50 percent of the production); through the Yangtze region to the southwest and south all the way to Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Jiangxi. The importance of wheat decreases from north to south as the temperature and rainfall increases. Winter wheat is planted in late September early October and is harvested in June. Winter wheat is planted as a single crop or double cropped with corn, cotton or soybean. Yields of winter wheat are higher and is above 3.5 tons/ha. The main constraints are: lack of high stable yield, drought resistance, poor quality seeds, pests and disease resistant varieties, and as in the case of Spring wheat inadequate and imbalance fertilizer application. 3. The rice producing area is divided into six regions-south, central (includes the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River), southwest, north, northeast, and northwest. The most important rice area is in the central and southern regions which represents more than 90 percent of the total rice planted. The total planted area is 30.7 million ha (Statistical Annex Table 2.3), with Japonica as the main type of rice planted in the north and Indica rice in the south. In the south region, rice is double cropped or rice is followed by wheat. Yields are low compared to other rice growing regions around 5.2 tons/ha. The main production constraints are limited fertilizer supply and plants are often affected by pest and disease outbreaks. The main type of rice planted in the central region is Indica hybrid, with Japonica being more common in the eastern part of the region. In this region farmers used to grow three crops of rice. Triple cropping of rice (or two crops of rice followed by wheat) has decreased since the late 1970s. The cropping systems commonly practiced by farmers today are rice-rice or rice-wheat. The average yields obtained in this region are around 6.2 tons/ha. Key constraints include inadequate supply of appropriate fertilizers and agrochemicals, and pests outbreaks. The southwest region accounts for about 15 percent of the total rice area. Single crop Japonica rice is planted at higher elevations and double crop Indica rice at lower elevations. Yield of rice average about 6.5 tons/ha. The main constraints similar to those faced in other rice producing regions-inadequate supply of fertilizers and losses due to pests and diseases. Only about 3 percent of the rice is planted in the north region, mainly with Japonica, either as a single crop or double crop with wheat. Rice yields average about 6.5 tons/ha. The main constraints are inadequate fertilizer supply, salinity problems and limited water available for irrigation. The northeast region accounts for about 5 percent of the total planted area. In view of the short growing season only a single crop of Japonica rice is grown in the area. Rice is transplanted in June and -55- ANNEX2 harvested in September. Yields are slightly lower than other rice producing regions averaging under 5.9 tons/ha. In some areas rice is direct seeded in May. Apart from problems related to input and water supplies, rice in the area is also frequently affected by cold injury. The last region, the northwest region, represents less than 1 percent of the total rice area. The constraints are similar to those of the north region and yields are comparable to those of the central region. Rice production is centered mainly in the MLYR region with 55 percent of the total production, the south-20 percent, and the southwest-16 percent, together accounting for about 91 percent of the total production (Statistical Annex Table 3.3). Production rose from about 169.1 million tons in 1988 to a high of 189.3 million tons in 1990 followed by a decline to 175.9 million tons in 1994 and again rose to 185.2 in 1995, a total increase of about 9.5 percent or an annual average growth of 1.4 percent. The largest production increase occurred in the northwest, north and northeast with 40 percent, 37 percent and 26 percent, respectively. The increase in production was a result of the increase in the planted area as well as significant increases in average yield, especially in the north region which increased from 5.1 tons/ha to 6.6 tons/ha. The decrease in planted area in the MLYR, southwest and south regions is offset by increases in the northern rice producing areas. The increase in average yield is largely due to the planting of improved hybrid rice and as in the case of wheat an increase in nitrogen use. The increase in yield was the main source of production growth in spite of a decrease in planted area. 4. There has been a rapid development of corn since the early 1960s, with the introduction of hybrid corn. Since 1988, the area under corn has increased by about 16 percent, production 45 percent, and yield 20 percent. More than 80 percent of the corn now planted are hybrids and high yielding varieties. About 75 percent of the corn is grown in the north, northeast, and northwest (Statistical Annex Table 2.4) under rainfed conditions and only spring corn require some irrigation. The other main production area is in the southwest with about 15 percent. Approximately 70 percent of the corn is grown for feed, 23 percent for food, and 7 percent for industrial purposes. Corn production is divided into six regions-Northern Spring Corn, Huang-Huai-Hai (3-H) Summer Corn, Southwestern, South China, Northwest Corn, and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The Northern Spring Region and the 3-H Summer Corn Region represent more than 65 percent of planted area and about 75 percent of the total corn production. Corn is generally planted as a single crop in April/May and harvested in late August/September in the northern region. Whereas in the 3-H Region it is planted after winter wheat in late June and harvested in late September/October. The average yield of corn in the above two regions is about 5.2 tons/ha. Poor drainage, inappropriate and inadequate supply of fertilizer, lack of machinery for transplanting and harvesting, and inferior seeds are the main constraints faced by farmers. The Southwestern Region is endowed with favorable weather and represents about 15 percent (see above) of the total corn area and 11 percent of total production. In view of the favorable weather conditions, corn is planted throughout the year-spring, summer and autumn in rotation and often intercropped with wheat, rice, tubers and beans. Poor soil fertility (large areas of red soils in the region) contributes to low yields and average only about 3.6 tons/ha. Other constraints include inadequate supply of fertilizers and pests and diseases problems. Only about 3 percent of -56- ANNEX2 the corn is planted in the South Region, with a production of less than 2 percent. In this region, as in the Southwestern Region, corn is planted year round mainly in rotation with rice. Average yields are very low about 2.8 tons/ha. The main constraints are pests and diseases and limited supply of inputs. The Northwest Corn Region is ideally suited to corn, but production is limited due to low precipitation and soil fertility. Relatively good yields have been obtained, averaging 5.0 tons/ha in spite of lack of irrigation facilities and limited input supply. Very little corn is grown in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Most of the corn grown is confined to the lower elevation river valleys in Tibet. The largest increase in area for the period from 1988 to 1995 occurred in the Northwest, MLYR and Northeast Regions (28 percent, 24 percent, and 22 percent, respectively). Production also rose from 77 million tons in 1988 to 112 million tons in 1995, an increase of 45 percent (Statistical Annex Table 3.4), or an average growth rate of over 6 percent. Planted areas increased by 3.0 million ha and average yield went up by about 0.81 tons/ha. Both increases in corn yield (20 percent) and area (16 percent) contributed to the 45 percent growth in production. The higher yields can be largely attributed to the dissemination of high yielding hybrid corn and increased use of fertilizer. 5. The area planted to soybean has increased by about 38 percent over the past seven years (Statistical Annex Table 2.8). The three main production areas are located in the Northeast, North, and Northwest Regions, together accounting for about 66 percent of the total planted area. The other main soybean production area is the MLYR and the Southwest Regions, each accounting for 17 percent and 12 percent, respectively, of the total planted area. The balance of about 5 percent is located in the South Region. Average yields range from a low of 0.8 tons/ha to over 2.0 tons/ha. Soybean is grown in rotation and as an intercrop with many crops-rice, wheat, corn and other upland crops. In most regions soybean is planted in May/June and harvested in September. Most growing regions share the same constraints which include inadequate fertilizer and agrochemicals, pests and diseases (borers, virus diseases, etc.). Soybean production has grown from 11.6 million tons in 1988 to 16 million tons in 1995 (Statistical Annex Table 3.8), an increase of 37 percent or an annual growth rate of 5.3 percent. The planted area increased by about 3.1 million ha (38 percent) and average yield decreased by 0.01 tons per ha (0.7 percent) over the period from 1988 to 1995. Most of the increase in planted area occurred in the Northwest (0.92 million ha ) and Southwest Regions (0.98 million ha). Over the same period, significant increases in planted area also occurred in the North (601,000 ha) and MLYR (436,000 ha) Regions. In the case of soybean, the substantial increase in production can be largely attributed to an increase in the planted area. 6. Other grains-barley, millet, oats, sorghum, and other coarse grains and tubers e.g. potatoes, yams, etc. also form part of long-term food security. Tuber production is converted to grain equivalent by assuming a conversion ratio of 5 tons of tubers to 1 ton of grain. About 87 percent of tuber production is located in the Northern, MLYR, Southwest and South Regions (Statistical Annex Table 2.9). The total area has increased from about 9.1 million ha in 1988 to 9.5 million ha in 1995, an increase of 5 percent. On the other hand, total production over the same period has increased by 21 percent (Statistical Annex Table 3.9), and yield from about 3.0 tons/ha to 3.4 tons/ha, an increase -57- ANNEX2 of 15 percent. Most of the increase in production is a result of better yields due to the planting of improved varieties and increase use of fertilizer. 7. There has been a sharp decline in the area planted to other grains in all regions (Statistical Annex Table 2.7). The reduction in area was most noticeable in 1994/95, particularly in the MLYR and Southwest Regions. At present the main production area is located in the North and Northwest Regions (Statistical Annex Table 3.7). Average yield has increased from 2.1 tons/ha in 1990 to about 5.0 tons/ha in 1995, i.e., an increase of about 136 percent, or an average annual rate of more than 27 percent. Production rose from 24.4 million tons in 1990 to 34.6 million tons in 1995, an increase of about 42 percent or an annual growth rate of about 8.3 percent (Table 20). The statistical data for other grain is not of the right order of magnitude and may need to be re-examined, as it is doubtful that yields of 8.7 tons/ha and 9.4 tons/ha for the South and Northeast Regions respectively, can be attained for other grains. FOOD GRAIN YIELD AND PRODUCTION POTENTIAL 8. Wheat. The area planted to wheat has remained fairly constant ranging from 29.3 million ha in 1979 to 28.9 million ha in 1995. The main reduction in area occurred in the Northeast and South, with increases registered in the northern and eastern part of the MLYR (Statistical Annex Table 2.2). In the period from 1979 to 1995 about 500,000 ha of cultivated wheat land was lost, or an annual loss of less than 32,000 ha per year. A gradual decline in the planted area is anticipated by the Year 2020 due to competing demand for land in the North and MLYR area. However, in view of the stringent controls that are being introduced, it is unlikely that the planted area would fall below 27 million ha. The loss of the wheat area would be compensated by proposed improvements of existing wheat planted on low and medium yield land, and the reduction of production constraints-inappropriate varieties, marginal wheat zone, low soil fertility, losses due to pests and diseases, effect of unfavorable weather, etc. Observations based on 172 samples taken over a ten-year period indicated that yield of wheat has increased by about 1.2 tons/ha due to continuing improvements made by farmers (Lin, Shen, and Zhou, 1996). Winter wheat yields can reach 5.5 tons/ha under optimum field conditions and 5.2 tons/ha for Spring wheat. According to published statistics the average wheat yield (winter and spring combined) for 1995 was approximately 3.5 tons/ha, a significant increase over that of 1979 of about 2.1 tons/ha. The highest yield recorded for winter wheat in experimental plots was 7.3 tons/ha and for spring wheat 6.6 tons/ha. Whereas, under field conditions winter, wheat yield was 6.9 tons/ha and spring wheat 6.0 tons/ha. Discussions with CAAS wheat specialist indicates good prospects for increasing wheat yields in most regions. Clearly the wheat varietal improvement program must be strengthened to provide superior varieties suited for each production region. However, even with existing technology, yield of wheat can be raised through better support services-input supply (fertilizers and agrochemicals), certified seeds, assured water supply, and supported by an effective extension service to disseminate improved technology. Except for the Northwest, potential for expansion of cultivated area for wheat is rather limited. Further yield gains can be achieved by widely extending existing -58- ANNEX2 technology to the main production regions and through further problem oriented research. (See paras. 14-17 regarding research support.) 9. Rice. Reduction of the area planted to rice occurred in all rice growing areas, except for the Northeast and Northwest. The area planted to rice declined from a high of 33.9 million ha in 1979 to 30.7 million ha in 1995. The main reduction occurred in the MLYR and South Regions (Statistical Annex Table 2.3). In total, about 3.13 million ha of cultivated rice land was lost, or an annual decrease of less than 195,500 ha per year. Area under double cropping has also fallen from 66 percent in 1980 to 55 percent in 1992 (Huang, Rozelle, and Lin, 1996). A decline in the rice area is anticipated by the Year 2020 due to competing demand for land in the South and MLYR Region. The area planted to rice in Year 2020 is estimated to be around 28 million ha. The lost of rice area from 1979 to 1995 was compensated by improvement in rice yields, and production in fact increased from 143.7 million tons in 1979 to over 185 million tons in 1995 (Statistical Annex Table 3.3). Sixty percent of the growth of rice yields have been attributed to improvements in rice technology (Huang loc. cit.). In particular, the contribution made by dwarf and hybrid rice. Despite the high yields already achieved for rice in China, there is still potential for further increases in rice yields. It is important that China raise its investment in rice research (institutional support stagnated or decline in recent years), develop varieties with appropriate characteristics for the major rice growing areas, upgrade irrigation facilities, implement integrated pest management (IPM) to reduce losses from pests and diseases, and ensure adequate and proper fertilizer application. At the same time, multidisciplinary teams should be established for each major production zone to develop packages which integrate all key factors in increasing the production and profitability of farmers. This approach should be adopted for all major grain crops. 10. Observations, based on more than 73 samples taken over a ten-year period from 1980 to 1990, indicated that yield of early rice in the field increased by about 1.3 tons/ha to 8.8 tons/ha; autumn rice by 1.5 tons/ha to 8.4 tons/ha, and one-season rice by 2.6 tons/ha to 10.3 tons/ha. In experimental plots the highest yields achieved for early rice, autumn rice and one-season rice were 9.0 tons/ha, 8.8 tons/ha and 10.8 tons/ha respectively (Lin, Shen, and Zhou, loc. cit.). According to published statistics the average rice yield (all rice combined) for 1995 was approximately 6.0 tons/ha, an increase of 1.8 tons/ha over that of 1979. The highest yields achieved in the field for early autumn and one season-rice was 9.7 tons/ha, 9.2 tons/ha, and 11.3 tons/ha, respectively. Discussions with CAAS rice specialist indicates good prospects for increasing rice yields in most rice producing regions. Based on data collected over a ten-year period and interviews conducted with rice experts all over China (Lin et al. loc. cit.), there is still considerable scope for increasing yield and production. As in the case of wheat, the rice varietal improvement program must be strengthened to provide appropriate varieties for the major production areas (in most areas potassium deficiency and varietal related constraints have been identified as the most important limiting factors to yield). Institutions must also be in place to ensure a reliable supply of good seeds, fertilizers, combined with an effective extension network to disseminate improved technology to -59- ANNEX2 farmers. One of the ways of improving services to farmers is to privatize the seeds and fertilizers industry. (The Bank's Seed Commercialization Project is a step in the right direction, but it is still not operating truly as a commercial enterprise.) There is still a gap between potential yield and actual yield, and the gap can be narrowed if appropriate measures are taken. Even with existing technology rice yields can be raised in many areas. Except for the Northeast and Southwest, the potential for expansion of cultivated area is rather limited. Assuming that the existing technology can be widely disseminated in the main production regions, and with further breakthroughs from rice research mentioned above (para. 1), average national yields should increase. 11. Corn. Corn really took off in the early 1960s with the introduction of hybrids (para. 4). Corn now occupies about 24 percent of the cultivated area and hybrids occupy 82 percent of the corn area. The planted area declined from 20.1 million ha in 1979 to 17.7 million ha in 1985 and then increased to about 22.8 million ha in 1995 (Statistical Annex Table 2.4). Production rose from 60 million tons to 112 million tons, an increase of 87 percent or an annual growth of 5.4 percent (Statistical Annex Table 3.4). Most of the increase in production occurred in the Northeast, North and Northwest Regions. No significant change is expected in the cultivated area and whatever is lost to industry and urban population would be balanced by gains through opening of new land in the Northwest, Northeast and to a lesser extent the Southwest. Except for the Northeast where it is only possible to grow a single crop corn, rice or soybean, land in the Northwest and Southwest is likely to be used in rotation with wheat or cotton. In the absence of reliable information regarding development of corn, it is difficult to predict what the planted area for corn would be in the Year 2020. Proposed MWR plans for new development and rehabilitation of irrigation and drainage schemes to the Year 2010 or 2020 may provide more precise estimate for the planted area in the Year 2020. However, due to the demand for corn as feed, the cultivated area for corn in the Year 2020 is unlikely to be less than 22 million ha. 12. Based on more 100 samples taken over a ten-year period from 1980 to 1990, the highest spring corn yield in the field was shown to increase from 6.9 tons/ha to 10.5 tons/ha and summer corn 6.6 tons/ha to 9.7 tons/ha. In experimental plots the highest yields achieved for spring and summer corn were 11.6 tons/ha and 10.8 tons/ha, respectively (Lin, Shen, and Zhou, loc. cit.). According to published statistics, the average corn yield (both spring and summer corn combined) for 1995 was approximately 5.0 tons/ha, an increase of almost 2.0 tons/ha over that of 1979 and represents an average annual increase of 4.2 percent. Proposed irrigation development in the Northeast and Northwest would contribute to yield increases as well as stabilize production. Most of the increases in yield, however, would come from the corn research program in developing high yielding varieties with traits suited to the major production zones. As proposed for wheat and rice it is important that corn research receives adequate funding for research and development work.. Since corn is often grown in rotation or as an intercrop with wheat, cotton and other crops, it is important that the multidisciplinary teams should include multiple cropping specialists. At present, research on corn is widely dispersed. Work is undertaken at the Beijing Crop Breeding and Cultivation -60- ANNEX2 Institute, some at the Cotton, Wheat and Corn Research Institute in Anyang, as well as the various institutes under the provincial Academy of Agricultural Sciences. China needs to pool its resources and develop a research center of excellence similar to that of the National Rice Research Institute in Hangzhou. As originally agreed with the Government, the Center at Anyang (ample land and good research facilities) should assume the leadership role and coordinate the national program for corn. The Anyang Center should also serve as the main contact point with CIMMYT in Mexico. The potential for increasing corn production is good if the corn program is strengthened along the lines proposed and supported by a strong seed and extension service. 13. Soybean. The area planted to soybean declined to about 7.0 million ha in 1991 and subsequently increased to about 11.2 million ha in 1995, an increase of 49 percent (Table 14). The increase was reflected in all soybean production regions. More than 65 percent of the production is concentrated in the Northeast, North and Northwest Regions. Much of the expansion in the northern and also the southwestern (Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan) part is a result of recent development by MWR. The MWR plans to develop another 500,000 ha in the Northeast and 767,000 ha in the Northwest (details in Working Paper on Water Resources). It is assumed that about 25 percent or about 317,000 ha of the area to be developed would be planted to soybean. The potential loss of soybean land is unlikely to exceed 300,000 ha. As in the case for corn, gains in the planted area would balance most of the losses, and the estimated planted area in the Year 2020 is expected to remain around 11 million ha. 14. The national average yield of soybean has remained relatively unchanged for the last eight years or so, and has fluctuated around 1.4 tons/ha. Higher yields were recorded in the MLYR and Northern Regions, with the South Region registering the lowest yield. The yield is considerably lower than those of the United States and other soybean producing countries. One of the reasons for the low yields is that rhizobial inoculation is not widely practiced in China. Effective strains must be identified and propagated for use on soybean. The potential for yield increases in all production regions are good. As in the case of corn, there is no national center to provide the leadership and coordination needed for research on soybean. Much of the research is undertaken by individual institutes under the provincial Academy of Agricultural Sciences. Very often results are not shared with other institutes. Multidisciplinary team approach as described for rice (para. 2) and corn (para. 5) must be established to undertake production problems faced by farmers in each of the major production zones. Completed World Bank projects in China have shown that it is feasible to double the yield of soybean to 2.8 tons/ha by the Year 2020. 15. Other Grains and Tubers. Other grains include barley, buckwheat, millet, oats, sorghum, and many other types of fine and coarse grains. Tubers cover all potatoes, yams, etc. The conversion of tubers to grain is 5 tons of tubers to 1 ton of grain equivalent. Sorghum is used in the liquor industry and as forage and animal feed. Millet, oats, and barley are used as food in some rural areas. The area planted to other grains have declined from about 11.6 million ha in 1990 to 6.9 million ha in 1995, a reduction of -61- ANNEX2 about 4.6 million ha, or 8 percent per year (Statistical Annex Tables 2.5, 2.6 & 2.7). Aggregate yields for other grains have increased from about 2 tons/ha in 1990 to 5 tons/ha in 1995 and production concomitantly increased from 24.4 million tons to 34.6 million tons, an increase of about 42 percent. The main tuber production area is in the North, MLYR, South and Southwest Regions, together they account for about 90 percent of the total tuber production. In 1990, about 9.1 million ha were planted and average yield was 3 tons/ha, with a total production of 27.4 million tons (Statistical Table 2.9). The planted area has increased slightly to 9.5 million ha, but total production has increased by 21 percent to 32.6 million tons, largely through yield increases. In spite of the contribution made by tubers to the total grain production, little or no attention has been paid to the improvement of tubers in China. There is a dearth of information on the future prospects for other grains and tubers. Planted area for other grains is likely to decline slightly to about 6 million ha, while tubers would remain fairly stable at around 9 million ha. Total production of other grains is likely to improve slightly due to improvements made to other crops. The same applies to tubers. In the Year 2020, the total production of tubers would be about 36 million tons and for other grains 33 million tons, a decline of 1.6 million tons. RESEARCH INVESTMENTS 16. It is difficult to identify precise expenditures that are purely dedicated to agricultural research in China. Investments in agricultural research may include, investments in fixed assets (i.e., capital construction, technical updating and transformation, and other fixed assets), state funds for agricultural production, agricultural credit, agricultural development funds, township enterprise funds for agriculture, poverty alleviation funds, and foreign investment in agriculture (Fan, 1995, and personal communications). Some of the above items may include operating funds and it is possible that in some items double counting may occur. This annex only deals with investments in agricultural research and development. 17. Funds for agricultural research and development (R&D) comes from three levels-national, provincial and prefectural. At the national level, the State Science and Technology Commission (SSTC) allocate funds to national, provincial and prefectural institutes for support of research. The SSTC also provides a special fund for specific projects. The Ministry of Agriculture, primarily through the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), also provides research support to the institutes under CAAS and to the provincial Academy of Agricultural Sciences (PAAS) to carry out special research topics of national interest. At the provincial level, the provincial government allocates funds to the respective PAAS and prefectural research institutes for carrying applied research aimed at solving local production problems. At the prefectural level, the departments of agriculture and research institutes support verification/on-farm trials with the assistance of the county agrotechnical extension centers (CATECs). In the past few years, revenues generated from commercial activities (ranging from research contracts with extension centers and farmers to sales of agricultural inputs, restaurants, hotel businesses, etc.) have supplemented funding for agricultural research. -62- ANNEX2 18. As stated by Fan (1996), government spending on agricultural research has increased dramatically during the past four decades, but not without considerable year to year swings (Statistical Annex Table 7.1). Investment started on a modest scale during the First Five Year Plan increasing dramatically from an annual average of Y 72.39 million to Y 497.45 million during the Great Leap Forward (1958-1960). This was followed by three years of readjustments which witnessed a drop in research expenditures to about Y 424.94 per year and virtually very little increase during the Cultural Revolution. Since 1977, research expenditures have grown in a more stable pattern. Recently, funding for agricultural research has again stagnated with no increase in real terms from 1988 to 1991 and only marginal increases thereafter. On the other hand, the number of scientists has grown more sharply, from a mere 10,000 in the early seventies to over 60,000 at present. As a result, the expenditure per scientist has declined sharply. Research expenditure per scientist is low (about Y 10,000 per scientist at Zhejiang PAAS and NRRI, Table 28 and personal communication), and, according to Rozelle et al., total funds for scientists rose less than one-half percent annually between 1985 and 1994. 19. Under the Eight Plan, Y 627 million was allocated for applied research (excluding capital construction, and investment in technical upgrading and transformation). The SSTC indicated that a 10 percent increase has been proposed under the Ninth Five Year Plan for agricultural research, and Y 23 million alone has been earmarked for grain. In view of diminishing land resources, support for agricultural research is one of the principal means of generating improved technology to increase yields and, thereby, production of food grains. There is a need to substantially increase investments for research as well as other support services-extension, seeds, farm machinery, etc.-if China is to meet the food production target of 645 million tons by the Year 2020. Additional capital investment is needed for new research facilities at existing research centers and/or the establishment of new national commodity-based research centers/regional centers. Many of the research institutes visited need replacement of old and antiquated equipment and are short of recurrent expenditure and expendable items. FERTILIZER 20. The Soil and Fertilizer Institute (SFI) in Beijing is one of the institutes under CAAS responsible for all aspects of plant nutrition and soil fertility, focusing on fertilizer application, soil improvement, dryland agriculture and nitrogen fixation. The two main objectives of SFI are to: a) improve crop yields by rational use of fertilizers with due consideration to the environment, and b) monitor soil fertility. At present, SFI supervises two national networks-the fertilizer network and the green manure network funded by the MOA. In the past, SFI has organized three nationwide fertilizer experiments involving 5,000 sites, the first in 1930, second 1958-62, and third from 1981 to 1983. Early experiments showed responses to nitrogen and phosphate (in the south), but almost no effect with potash. Response to nitrogen is now on the decline and responses to phosphate and potash have been shown in the north and south, respectively. No breakdown is available on fertilizer use by crops. The emphasis is now toward the use of balanced fertilizers. The ratio of N:P:K recommended should be based on the soil type -63- ANNEX2 and crop. Experiments have shown that a 20 percent increase in yield can be obtained through the use of balanced fertilizers. The main constraint is the availability of fertilizers at the time when it is needed by farmers and the quality of the nitrogen fertilizer (50 percent of the nitrogen fertilizer used is ammonium bicarbonate). There is still potential for grain increase through: (a) equitable distribution of fertilizers (ensure adequate supply to more remote areas); (b) increase efficiency of fertilizer use through the application of balanced fertilizer based on soil and foliar analysis; (c) phasing out of ammonium bicarbonate; and most important, (d) timely availability of fertilizers. 21. Organic manure is a very important source of nutrients in China. It played a major role in the 1950s and 1960s, where about 80 percent of the nitrogen comes from household waste. However, in recent years because of industrialization and high labor input in handling and compost making, the amount of organic manure used has greatly declined. Each year about 550 to 570 million tons of crop residue are available for use as fertilizer, but most of the crop residues are not returned to the soil. There are no reliable statistics on organic manure used for crop production and the total amount of nutrients applied as organic manure. At present it is estimated that around 30 percent of N, 50 percent of P205, and 90 percent of the K20 of the total nutrients used comes from organic manure and the balance from chemicals. If the figures are correct then organic manure supplies a substantial quantity of the nutrients used, mainly as potassium and phosphate. China should continue to promote the use of organic waste and programs should be established by the CATECs or FAs with the support of the Soil and Fertilizer Institute to make a careful assessment of the contribution made by organic manure. MAIN INTERVENTIONS TO INCREASE GRAIN PRODUCTION 22. There is good potential for increasing the yield of the major grain crops with existing technology (only about 30 percent of technology developed is reported to be currently adopted by farmers in the field). In fact prospects are even better if the calculation is based on actual planted area. However, to achieve the higher yields projected to the Year 2020, substantial increases in investments for agricultural research is essential as well as solutions to address key constraints in the production system. The main measures proposed to increase grain production are summarized below: (a) Increased funding for agricultural research. Establish regional multidisciplinary commodity teams to solve production problems- incorporating all important traits in the development of new and improved varieties. National institutes should provide greater leadership role to provincial/prefectural institutes. At the same time, strengthen links with international research centers. (b) Establish a pilot regional development authority (like MUDA) to speed up the transformation of low and medium yield land, concentrating first on areas with good potential for yield increases. Full complement of -64- ANNEX2 multidisciplinary staff should be engaged to execute the approved development plans. (c) Policy changes regarding price of inputs and outputs. The supply of fertilizer, agrochemicals, and seeds should also be improved and key constraints removed to ensure that required inputs are available to farmers when it is required. (d) Strengthen the extension services to speed up the application of known technology, initially in areas with good potential for yield increases. To date, only 8 of the 30 provincial, 70 of the 300 prefectural, 1,840 of the 2,444 county, and 42,133 of the 45,285 township extension centers and stations have been completed. The Government needs to accelerate the completion of the extension network. Make full use of farmers associations (FAs) in fostering close linkages with farmers and in the dissemination of new and improved technology. Revitalize farmers group at the village level to provide regular training and visit to farmers. (e) Upgrade and increase the efficiency of irrigation and drainage facilities, expand irrigated areas as proposed by MWR (Working Paper on Irrigation). Provide adequate funds for rehabilitation and O&M of existing irrigation and drainage systems. (f) Complete the seeds system so as to improve seed production and distribution. One of the ways of improving the seed services is to privatize the seeds industry (the Banks Seed Commercialization Project is a step in the right direction, but it is still not operating as a true commercial enterprise). There is also an urgent need to speed up legislation in the protection of plant breeders rights and the promulgation of Seed Law. (g) Laws need to be enacted to ensure the protection of cultivated land. Land contracts should be made more attractive for farmers to invest in their farms. (h) Raise the cropping intensity from 156 percent to 160 percent-the area under winter fallow in south China is 6.7 million ha, and 3.3 million ha is under green manure crops which can be converted to feed crops. This is equivalent to a net increase of about 1.4 million ha of sown area. (i) Reduce crop losses in handling, transportation/distribution, and storage to less than 5 percent (saving of 10 percent would represent 50-65 million tons of grain per year). (j) Rational use and distribution of balanced fertilizers. Promote the return of crop residues to the field and use of organic fertilizer. -65- ANNEX3 ANNEX 3: FERTILIZER Background 1. It is well known that the rapid increase and widespread use of chemical fertilizers in the past 30 years in China has been a major factor in the remarkable increase in grain and hence food production in that period. The main source of the supply of fertilizers is local production using both ingenious home-grown technologies and those that represent global best practice. Imports account for 20 to 30 percent of the supply. Fertilizer use has quadrupled since the mid 1970s, doubling both during the "Household Responsibility System" adoption period (1978-84) and in the subsequent 11 years, spurred on by the availability of fertilizer responsive crop varieties. Fertilizer used in 1995 was valued at Y 125 billion ($15 billion). It is the major cash input in crop production. 2. The effectiveness of fertilizer use is beginning to taper off. Incremental increases in fertilizer application no longer get the same high response in incremental crop production. As shown in Figure 1, the last 10 million tons per year (tpy) of fertilizer application gave an inappreciable increase of about 15 to 20 million tpy of grain production, compared with the nearly 100 million tpy of grain output from the previous incremental application of 10 million tpy. 3. The China Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) has identified five causes of the alarming drop-off in fertilizer effectiveness from the many recent studies of the problem. In order of importance they are : (a) Unbalanced supply and use of nutrients, especially underuse of potash (K20); (b) Underapplication of fertilizer nutrients; (c) Poor distribution of fertilizers; (d) Poor quality of fertilizers; and (e) Poor application methods 4. This annex examines factors and proposes steps that can be taken to ameliorate these problems and improve fertilizer use efficiency. -66- ANNEX3 FIGURE 1: GRAIN OUTPUT AND FERTILIZER APPLICATION 500.0 450.0 400.0 - 350.0 -- a* 150.0 -- 1 00.0 - 0.0- 10.0I I 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Fertilizer Application (mil tons) Unbalanced Supply and Use of Nutrients 5. The importance of proper nutrient balances is well known in China. The actual ratio of the 3 main nutrients (N:P205:K20) applied in 1995 was 100:47:16, instead of the recommended 100:50:25. Even this is low in P205 and K20 content compared to other countries which have much higher crop yields (see below). In Korea and Japan, for instance, the ratios are 100:120:80 and 100:40:40, respectively. -67- ANNEX3 6. This study looked at the nutrient balances on the basis of a detailed investigation of the input and uptake of the three main nutrients for the 17 most important crops and animal products for each province in 1995. The investigation clearly showed the imbalance in the application of nutrients. 7. The input of nutrients to the soil comes from a number of sources, such as plant residues that are returned after the harvest, sewage, biological fixing, atmospheric deposition, farm yard manure, nutrients already in the soil and chemical fertilizers. The amount contributed by each source can be estimated from recent technical reports. This investigation used conservative assumptions in making these estimates. 8. The uptake of N, P205 and K20 by the 17 crops and animal products is calculated by multiplying the amount of their production by the content of N, P205 and K20 in each crop or animal product. The nutrient content depends on a number of factors and there is a considerable range of information for each nutrient and crop. The factors used in this study generally represent the lower end of the range so as not to risk over-stating nutrient uptake. 9. The nutrient balances can then be calculated. In the ideal case, the input of nutrients to the soil are exactly balanced by the removal or uptake of the nutrients by the crops and animal products and are at levels in line with the highest economic return. In this situation, nutrient losses are also minimized, thus reducing environmental problems due to run-off of surplus nutrients into streams and rivers. 10. The results of the investigation are summarized in Table 1 below: TABLE 1: NATIONAL NUTRIENT BALANCES Nutrient Uptake Assessed (crop & animal) Losses Nutrient Input Balance (million tons) Nitrogen 19.52 10.14 32.52 2.86 Phosphate 6.83 3.49 12.51 2.18 Potash 17.50 1.85 12.62 -6.73 * Includes chemical fertilizers, crop residues, animal feeds, organic wastes, atmospheric deposition, and nitrogen fixation. 11. The table shows that excesses of nearly 3 million tons of nitrogen and just over 2 million tons of phosphates were applied to the Chinese soil in 1995, and that there was a shortfall of nearly 7 million tons of potash. The excess N and P205 was valued at Y 18 billion and was essentially wasted. The lack of adequate K20 meant that the efficiency of N and P205 uptake was diminished and therefore crop production was lower than it could have been. -68- ANNEX3 12. In terms of the geographic location, nitrogen excesses were high in the eastern provinces, while phosphate excesses were high in the South. The potash shortfall was particularly high in the northeast provinces. 13. Nutrient balances on a national basis prepared by the Ministry of Agriculture show similar results, namely an over-supply of nitrogen and phosphates and an undersupply of potash. A recent study of nutrient input and output of 71 farms in Southern China by the China National Rice Research Institute in Hangzhou also showed very low N and P205 efficiency relative to potash uptake. The study therefore recommended that farmers either reduce their consumption of N and P205 or increase use of K20. Those that have followed the recommendations have seen greater efficiency of the use of N and P205, including increased crop production. 14. A series of fertilizer research projects and field trials carried out by the CAAS and other Chinese agricultural research entities--often in collaboration with the Phosphate and Potash Institutes of Canada and the USA-confirm the validity of the recommendation to Chinese farmers to increase potash use. Some of the results are summarized in Table 2. This shows the potential increases in crop production from balanced application of potash. Crop yield increases of 16 to 50 percent are indicated. TABLE 2: AVERAGE YIELD RESPONSE TO POTASH IN BALANCED FERTILIZER TRIALS Average Yield Crop Potash Applied Ja Yield Increment Response without K with K --- --kg/ha)-- - - (kg output/kg K,O) Rice 98 6,038 7,020 982 10 Wheat 98 2,790 3,900 1,110 11 Corn 113 5,048 6,570 1,522 13 Tomato 165 23,318 30,773 7,455 45 Br. Bean 120 2,145 3,233 1,088 9 Watermelon 150 31,290 38,430 7,140 47 Citrus n.a. 40,148 53,783 13,635 Pineapple 375 22,530 28,590 6,060 16 Za Application rate in kg of K2 0 per hectare, nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers were balanced. Source. Stauffer, Mark D. And James D. Beaton, "Importance of Plant Nutrients in Increasing Agricultural Productivity-Chinese Experience," presented at the Fertilizer Association of India's Annual Meeting, New Delhi, December 7-9, 1995. 15. It is unclear why greater amounts of potash are not used in China despite evidence of the benefits this would bring. One reason could be that fertilizer use in China has evolved on the basis of local supplies. It is interesting to note that nitrogen is the most used nutrient and is also the most abundantly available from local sources. Local phosphates have only recently become available on a large scale and phosphate use has grown in line with the availability. There is very little potash available locally and that is costly to produce. Therefore, imports of potash will have to increase if China is to get the full use of its fertilizers. -69- ANNEX3 Underapplication of Fertilizers 16. The average application rate of plant nutrients in China is officially given about 250 kg/ha. Even this may be overstated for two reasons: (a) recent satellite imagery indicates that the cultivated land base is about 40 percent greater than the land statistics indicate; and, (b) there is apparent double counting of about 10 percent of the "straight" fertilizers used to make compounds. Correcting for these statistical anomalies reduces the application rate to the very modest figure of 155 kg/ha. 17. China is therefore far behind countries like Japan, Korea and Holland which apply more fertilizer and produce more crops per hectare of cultivated land as shown in Table 3, which also shows the wide disparities of fertilizer application rates and crop productivity within China itself : TABLE 3: FERTILIZER APPLICATION RATES AND CROP PRODUCTIVITY Country Fertilizer Application Crop Productivity (kg nutrients/ha) (tons main grains/ha) Netherlands 650 8.0 Japan 415 6.5 Korea 400 5.8 CHINA 245 (155) 4.5 highest province 422 (Shanghai) 11.0 (Beijing) least province 14 (Xinjiang) 18. The high rates of crop productivity and corresponding high rates of fertilizer application indicate that China can hold its own with the world leaders as at least some parts of China's food/fertilizer system operate at high efficiency. But, equally, the low rates indicate that there is considerable room for improvement. 19. One of the main reasons for the low application of fertilizers could be that the supply is limited, if not wholly inadequate. Local production amounts to some 25 million tpy from over 1,500 factories of which less than 30 use modem technologies. The production of low grade nitrogen and phosphates (see below) using local technologies is a remarkable historical feat, but it has left China with inefficient, polluting factories and an antiquated industry structure. The USA, for instance, produces the same amount of fertilizer in 71 factories employing only 18,000 workers, compared with China's 1.2 million fertilizer workers. 20. Policy guidelines call for local production to give full self-sufficiency in N and up to 66 percent in phosphates by 2000. The increased production is to come from world- scale plants which would cost about $5 billion. Although laudable, it is unlikely that the self-sufficiency goals will be reached. Nothing is said in the policy directives of the -70- ANNEX3 nontechnical aspects of production, especially in the way of enterprise reform which is needed to reduce government intervention and give factory managers more autonomy. 21. Imports make up the rest of the supply. Statistics indicate that imports averaged about 7 million tpy in the past decade, when the nominal gap between production and consumption appeared to be about 11 million tpy. Stocks may have supplied the difference. Imports ranged from 5 to 10 million tpy over the decade. Imports were mainly urea; compounds and potash also were imported but in quantities well below the actual demand. SINOCHEM, a MOFTEC company, has the exclusive right to import fertilizer and with its huge buying clout obtains favorable prices. However, it is inflexible and unable to respond easily to changes in the demand pattern, as indicated. Here, too, there is a need for reform of the systems, especially by letting others get into the import business. Poor Distribution of Fertilizers 22. The marketing and distribution (M&D) of fertilizers and other farm inputs is done by an awkward but effective system of agencies at state, provincial, county and township levels. At each level, there are Agricultural Means of Production Cooperatives (AMPC) which have access to supplies at their level which they move to the next level down until finally the fertilizer arrives at the farmers' field. The AMPCs handle all other farm inputs as well, including seed, pesticides and mechanization. 23. The system has worked surprisingly well up until now in getting at least some form of N and P205 to the farmers. This is because the 1,500 factories are well distributed throughout the country according to demand so that M&D is mostly a simple task of moving local supplies over short distances. Every province-except Xizang-produces fertilizer, and only a few have surplus production. There is little interprovincial trade in fertilizers. The main movement of fertilizer is that from imports. 24. At issue is whether the prevailing M&D system will be able to cope with massive and rapid changes that are needed to enable China to take a quantum step to a new level of food production. The most important factors to be addressed include: * Properly matching the fertilizer types that are supplied to a particular farm with the actual nutrient needs as determined by scientific analysis of the nutrient balances, which depend mainly on the crop being produced and the nutrient content of the soils. * Improving the present incentive system which rewards the best producers of crops with the most fertilizer. This does not encourage the farmers who are struggling to increase output. The coastal provinces receive major allocations of fertilizer whereas inland provinces get relatively less. * Developing the concept of fertilizer dealers which most of the world has found to be the most efficient method of fertilizer M&D. Dealers are independent -71- ANNEX3 businesses which maximize their income to the extent they help the farmer to maximize his income by matching the supply of fertilizer with the actual scientific demand. 25. In essence, these measures call for reforms of the fertilizer M&D systems leading to liberalization in line with the reforms suggested for fertilizer production and importing. From time to time, semi-private and independent operators have been allowed to participate in fertilizer M&D; but participation was terminated when difficulties occurred. A longer term, more sustained effort along these lines is needed. Poor Quality of Fertilizers 26. About half of China's supply of N and P205 consists of low grade ammonium bicarbonate (ABC), single superphosphate (SSP), and fused magnesium calcium phosphate (FMCP) which is produced in the 1,500 small-scale factories from local raw materials, namely coal, low grade phosphate rock and pyrites. The factories were built starting in the 1950s to get some chemical fertilizers to farmers in support of crop production. On average these products contain less than 20 percent of plant nutrients. The poor quality of the low grade materials is not only in their low nutrient content- which makes them costly to transport-but also in their agronomic efficacy (see below). 27. Little by little the old factories are being converted or replaced with the intention that higher quality products like urea, di- and mono-ammonium phosphates and triple super phosphate-which contain an average of about 50 percent plant nutrients-will take over. Despite these efforts, the low grade materials are likely to provide a significant proportion of the supply for the indefinite future. 28. New factories using modem technologies and producing high quality products are planned and many have been built, but they supply only the incremental demand and do not replace the low grade materials. The construction periods for the new factories are much longer than in other parts of the world; this may take a decade or more, compared to 5 years or less elsewhere in the world. New incentive structures and special efforts will be needed to accelerate the construction of new modem factories. Poor Methods of Applying Fertilizer 29. It is estimated that 50 percent of the N applied to irrigated fields is lost by evaporation because the fertilizer is applied by simple broadcasting-even by hand in some areas. Modem techniques of applying the fertilizer directly to the root zone, by using fertilizer drills and/or fertilizer tablets would help. 30. ABC is particularly volatile even evaporating in storage after manufacture. It cannot, therefore, be stored for very long. Consequently, ABC plants often cannot be operated effectively in the fallow seasons when fertilizer is not needed; thus, costs due to idle assets increase. -72- ANNEX3 31. Evaporation is not a problem with the low grade phosphate fertilizers. However, not all of the contained phosphate is water soluble and, therefore, is not immediately available for take-up by the plants. FMCI is especially problematic in this regard. SSP does have the advantage of delivering good amounts of sulfur to the soil. Sulfur is a secondary plant nutrient which is lacking in many parts of China. Future Prospects for Fertilizer and Food Security 32. The problems facing fertilizer use that have just been outlined need to be solved as fertilizer is an indispensable factor in assuring food security. Measures that can be taken in the short term (i.e., increasing the supply of potash by increasing imports) and those that require deeper study and investigation (i.e., reforming the production, importing and M&D systems) need to implemented vigorously. 33. The impressions gained from the many interviews with a large cross-section of the fertilizer and food establishment in China, which is the basis of this study, are that: * specific problems facing the fertilizer sector are well understood at the technical level of government, institutes and other organizations that deal with the sector; * very few individuals or organizations have an overall understanding of the sector; * there is a broad understanding of the problems at the political levels, but, so far, there is very little articulation of the policies that need to be implemented to deal with them; and; * the policy statements that are presented tend to look backwards expressing satisfaction with the status quo rather than looking forward to deal with the serious challenges that the fertilizer sector is facing. 34. The wake-up call that food security in China is endangered-which is motivating serious study of the overall situation-has only been faintly heard by the authorities responsible for the fertilizer sector. So far, there has been little attempt to integrate the various aspects of the problem and to come up with a comprehensive plan of action. 35. The prospects are good that there could be a major increase in food production if the fertilizer problems are solved. If balanced nutrients can be supplied, application rates increased, distribution improved, poor quality materials replaced with high grade products, and application methods improved, China could reach the food productivity levels of other countries that already have their fertilizer sectors functioning at peak efficiencies. 36. Although China should not distort food prices, as has been done in Japan and Korea (and thereby over-fertilizer), it is possible to increase fertilizer use and food output -73- ANNEX3 under current fertilizer and food price ratios. A hypothetical exercise along these lines showed that a 40 percent increase in grain production could be expected from a 100 percent increase in fertilizer use with nutrients properly balanced. Total food production could increase from some 700 million tpy now to over 1,000 million tpy, while fertilizer use would increase from just under 40 million tpy now to just under 80 million tpy. N use would double to 45 million tpy, P205 use would increase 90 percent to about 17 million tpy, and K20 would more than treble to 16 million tpy. 37. Such increases in the Chinese fertilizer demand would put serious strains on the world fertilizer market, especially that for K20. The increases in current world production capacity-including that in China itself-to meet these demands would be 33 percent for N, 27 percent for P205, and 74 percent for K20. On the other hand, such massive changes in China would take a decade or more to implement so that there would be enough time for the world market to adjust, especially for N and P205. The massive increase in global K20 capacity would be feasible, especially in Canada where the basic infrastructure is in place. Chinese investment in expanding Canadian or other foreign K20 capacity would go a long way to ensuring the capacity expansion. A New Food and Fertilizer Paradigm is Needed 38. If China is to meet its future food needs, it needs to make the same sort of effort now that it made in the 1950s and 1960s, when it launched the nation-wide building of small fertilizer factories whose supply of low grade fertilizers revolutionized agriculture. A similar revolution is needed now to balance the nutrients, increase the application rates, improve distribution, material quality and application methods. 39. This new revolution cannot be led and implemented centrally; central control must be loosened so as to pass the responsibility for the changes to individuals and enterprises and "the market." The precedents of the Household Responsibility System and the nation-wide liberation of rural industrial development stand as good examples of what can be achieved by liberating reforms. TABLE 1: NITROGENT NUTRIENT INPUT/OUTPUT BALANCE, 1995 ('000 tons N) Nitrogen Nutrients Uptake ('000 tons N) Crop Uptake Nutrient Input ('000 tons N) Apparent Input/ Province Arable Arable Crop Total Animal All Assessed Plus Nutrient Crop Sewage Biological Atmosphernc Nitroen Nutrent Total N Nutrient Output Crops Residues Arable crops crops Losses Losses Residues Fixation Deposition Fertilizer in Feed Nutrient Input Depletion Ratio Northeast 1,346.1 948.7 2,294.8 199.2 2,494.0 1,286.8 3,780.8 569.2 231.8 246.1 163.3 2,027.0 153.4 3,390.7 -390.1 0.90 Heilongjiang 6168 403.5 1,0203 639 1,084.2 5549 1,639.1 242 1 102 1 183.5 86.5 5890 492 1,2525 -3866 076 Linoming 326.5 2488 575.3 857 6610 3477 1,0087 1493 61.8 235 362 7290 660 1,0658 57 1 1 06 Jilm 402.9 2963 699.2 49.5 7487 3843 1,1330 1778 67.9 39 1 406 709.0 38 1 1,0724 -606 095 North 3,283.3 2,282.2 5,565.5 581.6 6,147.1 3,189.9 9,337.0 1,369.3 579.7 374.3 412.0 6,910.2 447.9 10,093.3 756.3 7.6 Beijing 72.1 503 1224 175 1399 73.5 2134 302 134 2.7 5 5 141.7 135 2070 -64 097 Tianim 63.1 46.5 1096 114 1210 62.8 1837 27.9 112 48 5.7 857 8.8 1441 -396 078 Hebei 696.9 497.8 1,1947 1326 1,3273 690.2 2,017.5 2987 1244 68.0 870 1,4150 102 1 2,0952 77 7 1 04 Shanxi 215.9 159.0 3749 265 4015 2061 6075 95.4 364 16.9 390 446.1 204 6542 466 108 Henan 875.4 623.0 1,4983 1244 1,6227 8362 2,459.0 373.8 1500 121 0 121 4 1,9129 95.8 2,7748 3158 1.13 Shaanxi 2188 144.7 363.5 32.6 3960 2045 600.6 868 37.7 14.7 450 733.8 25.1 9430 342.4 1.57 Shandong 1,141 1 7610 1,902 0 2366 2,138 6 1,116.6 3,255.2 4566 2066 146.2 108.4 2,175.0 1821 3,274.9 19.7 101 Northwest 678.8 596.5 1,275.3 88.6 1,363.9 699.7 2,063.6 357.9 115.1 55.7 134.3 1,213.1 68.2 1,944.3 -119.3 4.9 Nei Mongol 252.5 1824 435.0 32.3 4673 240.1 7074 1095 427 28 1 508 352.1 249 608 1 -993 086 Gansu 160.0 1104 2705 21 8 292.3 150.5 442.9 663 27.3 14.4 377 2996 16 8 462 1 19.2 1 04 Qinghai 32.7 21.4 541 74 61.5 32.2 937 12.9 6.0 5.5 57 37.4 57 732 -205 078 Ninxia 45 0 28.9 73.8 5.2 79.0 40.5 119.5 17.3 7.5 2 1 96 1189 4.0 1594 399 133 Xinjiang 1885 253.4 441.9 21.9 4638 236.3 700.1 1520 31.6 55 30.5 405 1 16 9 641.5 -58 6 092 East 1,528.0 1,116.6 2,644.6 252.9 2,897.5 1,499.4 4,396.9 670.0 267.1 109.5 207.3 4,048.9 194.8 5,497.5 1,100.6 1.25 Shanghai 486 37.3 85 9 20.8 1066 575 164.1 224 104 1.5 54 186.7 160 2424 783 148 Jiangsu 686.9 498.3 1,1852 123.1 1,308.3 6788 1,987.1 2990 121 5 51.6 79 1 1,9533 94.8 2,5992 612.1 1 31 Zhejiang 259.4 1854 4448 418 486.6 2517 738.3 1112 452 13.3 392 7170 322 958 1 2198 130 Anhui 533 1 395.6 9287 672 995.9 5114 1,5074 2374 901 43.1 83 5 1,1919 51.8 1,697.8 190.4 1.13 Central 1,261.4 1,002.1 2,263.5 277.7 2,541.2 1,326.1 3,867.3 601.2 230.9 85.8 212.1 3,081.2 213.8 4,424.9 557.6 1.14 Jiangxi 290.5 2173 507.8 70.2 578 1 303 1 881.1 1304 54 1 24 6 595 641 1 54 1 9638 82 6 109 Hubei 5169 447 I 9640 98.2 1,0622 5508 1,6130 268.3 923 35 3 74 1 1,4133 756 1,9589 3459 1.21 Hunan 454.0 3377 791.6 109.2 900.9 472.3 1,373.1 202.6 845 259 784 1,0268 84 1 1,5023 129 1 1.09 South 868.9 619.7 1,488.6 222.2 1,710.8 899.8 2,610.6 371.8 163.7 74.7 147.6 2,374.1 171.1 3,302.9 692.3 1.27 Guangdong 343.7 244 1 587.8 94 8 682.6 360.3 1,0429 146.5 65 8 29.4 53 0 1,0997 73.0 1,4674 424 5 1 41 Guangxi 3201 2366 556.7 754 632.1 331.2 963.3 141 9 59.3 27.0 575 608 1 58 I 9519 -11 4 099 Fujian 1686 112.5 281.0 42.3 3233 1701 493.4 67.5 31.6 15.4 284 5703 325 745.7 2523 1 51 Hainan 365 26.5 63 1 9.7 728 38.3 111.1 15.9 6.9 2 9 8.7 96 0 7 5 1379 269 1.24 Southwest 1,244.7 848.0 2,092.7 274.0 2,366.8 1,238.2 3,605.0 508.8 227.8 111.8 222.2 2,582.4 211.0 3,864.6 259.6 1.07 Sichuan 785.6 530.2 1,3158 1983 1,514 1 7967 2,3108 318 1 1476 61 5 1289 1,627 1 1527 2,4359 125 1 105 Guizhou 185.1 1334 318.6 318 3504 1815 5319 80.1 325 14 4 42.0 3932 245 5867 548 1 10 Yunnan 257.3 173 5 4308 39.1 4699 2428 712.7 1041 445 34 0 496 5532 30 1 8154 1027 1 14 Tibet 16 7 10.9 27.6 4 8 32.4 172 49.5 6.5 3.2 19 2 2 89 37 26.5 -23 1 0 53 TOTAL 10,211.2 7,413.9 17,625.1 1,896.2 19,521.3 10,139.9 29,661.2 4,448.3 1,816.1 1,057.7 1,498.8 22,236.9 1,460.1 32,518.3 2,857.1 1.10 TABLE 2: PHOSPHATE NUTRIENT INPUT/OUTPUT BALANCE, 1995 ('000 tons P205) Phopsphate Nutrients Uptake ('000 tons P205) Crop Uptake Phosphate Nutrients Input ('000 tons P20s) Apparent Input/ Country Arable Arable Crop Total Animal All Assessed Plus Nutrient Crop Sewage Phosphate Phosphate Total P2Os Nutrient Output Crops Residues Arable crops crops Losses Loss Residues Fertilizer Feed Nutrient put Depletion Ratio Northeast 549.8 228.6 778.4 39.8 818.1 417.0 1,235.2 137.1 88.4 849.5 69.0 1,144.1 -91.1 0.93 Heilongliang 241 9 105.2 347 1 14 1 3612 1834 544.7 63.1 384 413.7 245 5397 -5.0 099 Liaoning 136.7 601 1968 164 2132 1099 3230 360 23.0 2260 284 3134 -96 0.97 Jilin 171.1 633 2344 93 2437 123.7 367 5 380 27.1 2098 16.2 291 0 -765 0.79 00 00 North 1,396.1 618.7 2,014.8 113.2 2,128.0 1,086.6 3,214.6 371.2 226.4 3,334.0 196.4 4,128.0 913.4 8.4 Beijing 308 136 444 36 480 247 728 8 1 5.2 365 63 56 1 -166 077 Tianjin 26.0 132 39.2 24 416 213 629 79 43 287 4.2 45 1 -179 0.72 Hebei 2967 1323 4290 260 4550 232.7 6878 794 484 6287 45 1 8016 1139 1 17 Shanxi 922 399 132.2 54 1376 69.9 2074 239 146 269.4 94 3174 1100 153 Henan 3753 1735 5488 234 5722 2908 863.0 104 1 598 1,027.8 407 1,2324 3694 1 43 Shaanxi 96.1 378 133.9 65 140.5 715 2120 227 154 294.6 114 3441 132 1 1.62 Shandong 4789 2084 6873 457 733.1 3757 1,1088 125 1 787 1,0483 79.4 1,3314 222 7 1.20 Northwest 293.3 159.5 452.7 17.5 470.3 238.6 708.9 95.7 46.6 641.0 30.4 813.7 104.8 5.6 Nei Mongol 105.8 421 147.8 64 1542 784 2326 252 168 158.4 11 I 2115 -210 0 91 Gansu 681 280 96 1 4.0 1002 50.9 151.0 16.8 108 185 1 7 0 2197 687 145 Qinghai 135 5.5 190 15 205 10.6 31.1 33 23 21 7 2 6 299 -1.2 096 Ningxia 202 7.4 27.5 1 1 286 14 5 43.1 44 3.2 378 19 47.3 4 2 1 10 Xinjiang 85 7 76.6 1623 4.4 1667 843 2510 459 135 238.0 7 7 305.2 54 2 122 East 695.3 316.9 1,012.2 47.8 1,060.0 539.6 1,599.5 190.1 111.5 1,631.4 83.0 2,016.0 416.4 1.26 Shanghai 21.6 10.3 319 41 360 188 547 62 38 359 7 0 530 -18 097 Jiangsu 3138 1423 4561 237 479.7 2446 7243 85 4 506 7763 41 1 9534 2290 132 Zhejiang 1201 542 1743 78 1820 926 2746 325 192 1870 13 5 2522 -22 5 0 92 Anhui 239.9 1100 3499 123 3623 1836 5458 660 378 6322 214 7575 2116 1 39 Central 580.0 290.3 870.4 50.4 920.8 470.5 1,391.2 174.2 94.6 1,309.3 87.4 1,665.5 274.3 1.20 Jiangxi 1337 622 1959 12.7 2086 1068 3154 373 219 2930 219 3742 589 1 19 Hubei 2323 129.4 3617 182 3799 193.6 5735 777 376 6591 315 8059 2324 141 Hunan 214 1 987 3128 19.6 3323 170 1 5024 592 350 3572 33 9 4854 -17 0 097 00 South 385.6 183.4 569.0 39.7 608.7 312.3 920.9 110.1 63.8 1,098.2 68.8 1,340.9 419.9 1.46 Guangdong 1517 73.6 2253 169 2423 1245 3668 44 2 253 4605 294 5593 1925 152 Guangxi 142.9 671 2100 13.3 2233 1143 3376 403 234 3346 23 1 4214 83 8 1.25 Fujian 745 350 1095 7.7 1172 602 1774 210 12.3 2557 134 3025 1251 1 71 Hamnan 164 7.7 242 1.7 259 13 3 392 46 2 7 474 3 0 577 18 5 147 Southwest 551.7 228.3 779.9 49.4 829.4 424.6 1,253.9 137.0 90.2 1,086.0 85.8 1,398.9 144.9 1.12 Sichuan 353.7 1454 4991 358 5349 2746 8094 872 584 6852 621 8929 83 5 1 10 Guizhou 805 344 1149 56 1205 614 1819 20.6 129 1604 9 7 2037 21 8 1 12 Yunnan 1103 460 1563 70 1633 83 0 246.3 27.6 176 2358 12 1 2931 468 1 19 Tibet 72 2 5 9.7 10 107 5 6 163 1 5 12 46 1 8 91 -72 0.56 TOTAL 4,451.7 2,025.6 6,477.4 357.8 6,835.2 3,489.1 10,324.3 1,215.4 721.4 9,949.4 620.8 12,507.0 2,182.7 1.21 TABLE 3: POTASH NUTRIENT INPUT/OUTPUT BALANCE, 1995 ('000 tons K20) Potash Nutrients Uptake ('000 tons K20) Crop Uptake Potash Nutrient Input ('000 tons K2O) Apparent Input/ Country Arable Arable Crop Total Animal All Assessed Plus Crop Sewage Potash Potash Total K2O Nutrient Output Crops Residues Arable crops Crops Losses Nutrient Loss Residues Fertilizer Feed Nutrent Input Depletion Ratio Northeast 561.2 1,446.7 2,007.9 26.6 2,034.6 214.1 2,248.7 868.0 88.2 255.1 51.9 1,263.2 -985.5 0.56 Heilongiang 243.2 591.2 8344 97 8440 88.3 9323 354.7 379 868 188 4983 -4340 053 Liaoning 159.5 386.2 545.7 107 556.4 59.9 6163 231 7 255 74.9 208 3530 -2634 057 Jiin 158.5 4693 6278 63 6341 65.9 7000 2816 247 93.4 123 4120 -288 1 059 North 1,375.7 3,609.6 4,985.3 72.5 5,057.9 534.8 5,592.7 2,165.8 217.2 1,010.0 141.4 3,534.5 -2,058.2 4.2 Beijing 35.8 832 119.0 2.3 1213 13.0 1344 49.9 57 8.8 45 689 -65.5 051 Tianjin 34.6 713 1059 1.4 107.3 11.3 118.6 428 54 76 28 58.5 -601 049 Hebei 301.2 7748 1,076 I 16.2 1,092.3 115.7 1,208.0 464.9 476 163.0 31.6 707.1 -5008 059 Shanxi 91 4 2378 329.2 36 332.7 347 367.4 142.7 142 55.5 6.9 219.3 -148.1 060 Henan 334.1 963 9 1,298 1 15.3 1,313.4 1375 1,450.9 5784 52.4 2823 29.9 943.0 -5079 065 Shaanxi 85.2 247 1 332.4 4.3 336.7 35.4 372.1 1483 134 91 6 8.5 261.8 -110.3 070 Shandong 493.3 1,231 4 1,724.8 294 1,754.2 1872 1,941.3 7389 784 401.2 573 1,275.8 -665.6 066 Northwest 283.5 742.0 1,025.5 13.6 1,039.1 109.4 1,148.4 445.2 44.6 98.9 26.6 615.2 -533.2 2.7 Nei Mongol 99.5 2584 357.9 49 362.8 383 401.1 1550 157 265 96 2068 -1942 0.52 Gansu 65.8 1680 233.8 3 0 236.8 249 261.6 1008 103 243 5 8 1412 -1204 054 Qinghai 112 29.7 409 13 422 47 46.9 17 8 19 5.9 2 5 281 -18.9 060 Nmpia 18.0 54.7 72.7 0.8 735 77 812 328 28 7.3 16 44.5 -367 055 Xinjiang 89.0 231.1 320.1 3.6 3237 33.8 357.6 138 7 139 349 7 I 194.5 -1630 054 East 628.0 2,116.6 2,744.6 31.5 2,776.1 290.2 3,066.3 1,270.0 98.9 485.8 61.4 1,916.1 -1,150.2 0.62 Shanghai 242 679 921 2.9 94.9 10 6 105.6 407 41 64 5 6 56 8 -488 054 Jiangsu 2736 9427 1,2163 14 8 1,231.1 129.0 1,360 1 565.6 433 1984 28 9 8362 -5240 061 Zhejiang 1220 4088 5308 5.4 5362 55.8 592.0 2453 191 721 10 5 3470 -2450 059 Anhui 208.2 6972 9054 8.5 913.9 94.8 1,008.7 418.3 325 2089 16 5 6763 -3324 067 Central 568.7 1,935.9 2,504.5 35.3 2,539.8 268.1 2,808.0 1,161.5 90.6 693.5 68.9 2,014.5 -793.5 0.72 Jiangxi 1315 4596 591 1 9 0 600.1 63.6 663.7 2757 21 1 1869 176 5013 -1624 076 Hubei 2365 7270 9635 12.2 975.8 102.5 1,0782 436.2 37.3 211 6 239 7090 -3692 066 Hunan 2007 7493 9499 140 9640 102.0 1,0660 449.6 322 2950 274 8042 -2618 075 South 528.4 1,307.5 1,836.0 28.9 1,864.9 198.0 2,062.9 784.5 83.6 931.7 56.3 1,856.1 -206.8 0.90 Guangdong 2128 5212 7340 12.3 7463 796 8259 312.7 33.8 3968 240 7673 -586 093 Guangxi 1965 4758 672.3 99 6822 722 7544 2855 310 2873 192 623.0 -131.4 083 Fujian 95.4 2542 3496 5.4 355.0 377 3927 1525 15 1 2180 106 396.2 3 5 101 Hainan 23.7 563 80 1 1.3 81.3 86 900 338 3.7 296 2 5 696 -20 3 077 Southwest 524.1 1,624.6 2,148.7 36.1 2,184.8 232.9 2,417.7 974.8 84.0 285.6 70.5 1,414.9 -1,002.9 0.59 Sichuan 3244 1,061.4 1,3858 259 1,4117 1515 1,5632 636.8 525 1387 504 8785 -6847 056 Guizhou 77.0 2329 3099 4.2 314 1 33.1 3472 1397 12.2 54.4 8 1 2145 -1327 062 Yunnan 1173 3128 4301 52 435.3 45.6 4809 1877 18.4 92.0 102 308.3 -1727 0 64 Tibet 53 176 22 9 09 23.8 2.7 265 105 09 05 17 13.7 -12.8 0 52 TOTAL 4,469.6 12,782.9 17,252.5 244.6 17,497.1 1,847.6 19,344.7 7,669.7 707.1 3,760.6 477.0 12,614.5 -6,734.2 0.65 -77- ANNEX4 ANNEX 4: LAND RESOURCES RESOURCE BASE 2 1. China has a land area of about 94 million km2, divided into 30 administrative regions (provinces/municipalities/autonomous regions). The geographical and climatic conditions are well documented; it ranges from humid tropics in the south through semi- arid desert and to the cold temperate region in the north. As often cited only about 10 percent of the land area is suitable for cultivation. Fifty percent of this is located in the North and the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR), about 17 percent in the Northeast, 14 percent in the Northwest, 12 percent in the Southwest, and the balance in the South (Statistical Annex Table 1.1). Between 1979 and 1995, the cultivated area declined by 4.5 million ha and the per capita cultivable land declined correspondingly. According to the Institute of Natural Resources and Regional Planning (INRRP) of CAAS, the actual cultivated area based on satellite imagery is 132 million ha rather than the 95 million ha quoted in official statistics. This has major implications regarding sown area, crop yield, seed and fertilizer use, and grain production projections to the Year 2020. Likewise, the annual loss of cultivable land is lower than the statistical data implies-less than 200,000 ha per year. 2. The reduction in cultivable area occurred in all regions with the largest decline occurring in Guangdong which lost about one-third of its cultivated area between 1979 and 1995. Only five provinces-Heilongjiang, Nei Mongol, Qinghai, Xinjiang and Yunnan-recorded increases in cultivated area. The total irrigated area reached 48.7 million ha in 1995, i.e., 51.8 percent of the total cultivated area was irrigated (Statistical Annex Table 1.3). The most significant increases in irrigated area occurred in the Northeast, and Northwest Regions. Only in the South region, particularly Gangdong, did irrigated area decline. Recently strict laws-Land Management law-have been promulgated to strictly enforce measures to prevent the loss of valuable land to nonagricultural uses. 3. There is still potential for exploiting hitherto undeveloped land for crop cultivation. China has about 35 million ha of wasteland which is suitable for farming. Of this, about 14.7 million ha (28 percent in the north and northeast, and 27.5 percent in Gansu and Xinjiang) can be reclaimed for crop cultivation. In addition, there is about 2 million ha coastal land in East China. Efforts are underway to speed up the reclamation of wasteland and China plans to reclaim more than 300,000 ha each year to compensate for the loss of cultivated land appropriated for nonagricultural uses. Based on statistical data, the average loss of cultivated area over the past ten years is about 400,000 ha. The net reduction, therefore, amounts to about 100,000 ha per year. Available data indicates that there could be land available for new development to balance losses to the Year -78- ANNEX4 2020. The main question is whether the land can be developed at an economic cost, and whether the institutions involved have the capacity and resources to successfully develop and provide basic infrastructure and services to about 300,000 ha each year. 4. According to the Institute of Natural Resources and Regional Planning (INRRP), CAAS, there is about 89.43 million ha (72.8 percent of total cultivated land) of low and medium yield land in China. Of this, 40.17 percent is classified as low yield land and 32.71 percent as medium yield land. (These figures vary depending on the source.) Low yield land is generally described as lacking on-farm development, irrigation/drainage works and shelter belts, and medium yield land is where one or two of these factors are missing, e.g., irrigation. The low and medium yield land includes cultivated area affected by drought, water shortage, rainfed, waterlogging, salinity and wind erosion. The present irrigated area is about 49.3 million ha (i.e., about 52 percent of cultivated land) (para. 2.03). The target for farm land under irrigation in the Year 2030 is 80 percent (73 million ha). CULTIVATED LAND RESOURCES 5. There are various causes for the decline in cultivated land: (a) Inadequate financial resources. The amount of land reclaimed has declined dramatically over the past three decades. During the 1960s over 18 million hectares were reclaimed, but this declined to about 5 million hectares in the 1970s and dropped to 2.6 million hectares in the 1980s. (b) Diverting land to nonagricultural uses. In the 1980s, reforms brought rural economic development as well as introduced competition for agricultural land, including industrialization, urbanization and house construction by the farmers. According to the statistics, during the Sixth Five Year Plan Period, cultivated land diverted to nonagricultural use was 920,000 ha or 16 percent of the cultivated land decrease. During the Seventh Five Year Plan Period, 880,000 ha or 25 percent of the total cultivated land losses were diverted to these uses. (c) Returning land to alternative agricultural uses-forestry and rangeland. A portion of the reclaimed land was really not suited to cultivated agriculture, and during 1984 to 1990 over 3.6 million hectares of cultivated land were transferred to forestry and rangeland uses. This represented 54 percent of the reduction in cultivated land. (d) Natural disasters. Natural disasters of various kinds have caused land losses, averaging 100,000 to 200,000 mu annually. 6. Quantity reduction has resulted in serious quality problem. Among the total land losses in the 5 years from 1991 to 1995, about 95 percent or 10 million mu were paddy fields in the south rice producing provinces, resulting in sharp reduce of rice production. -79- ANNEX4 7. China's cultivated land has the following characteristics: (a) About half of the cultivated land are located in the mountainous and hilly areas. Among the total cultivated land, about 670 million mu (47 percent) are distributed in the mountainous and hilly areas. In the plain areas, this amounts to 780 million mu, or 53 percent of the total. (b) Dry land represents majority of cultivated land. By the end of 1995, there were 1.43 billion mu (95 million ha) of cultivated land in total. Among which, paddy fields amounted to 372.8 million (24.9 million ha) and dry land to 1.05 billion mu (70.1 million ha). Among the nonpaddy land, only 30 percent are irrigated, the remaining 70 percent are rainfed, or no way to develop irrigation. Table 4 shows the total cultivated land between the years of 1991 and 1995 by province. (c) Great variance of cultivated land resources among regions. The land area of the east and southeast occupies only 50 percent of the total land area of the country, yet their cultivated land represents 94 percent of the country total. A rough distribution of land area and cultivated area is indicated below: Land Distribution by Selected Region Percent of Land Area Percent of Cultivated Area Huang, Hui, Hai 4.6 22.9 West 47.0 5.2 MLYR 10.0 19.4 Southwest 10.5 14.0 South 5.2 6.4 North 9.9 17.0 Loess Plateau 4.2 10.0 Nei Mongol & Great Wall 8.3 7.8 (d) Little cultivated land per capita. The per capita cultivated land in China is only 1.3 mu, which is very low. Large differences among regions exists. Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia and Xingjiang represent the highest, where per capita cultivated land is over 3 mu. Shanghai represents the lowest of only 0.38 mu per capita, that of Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces has only 0.62 mu. Table 3-6 shows states of the cultivated land. -80- ANNEX 4 LAND RECLAMATION POTENTIAL 8. Cultivated land is the basis for agricultural and grain production. This is particularly so in China in view of its population size and its already very limited cultivated land. However, potential to increase cultivated land is very small. Barren land resources suitable for agricultural production 9. According to the related statistics, there were in total over 1.6 billion mu of potential resources of cultivated land in the 1950s. Nevertheless, it was reduced to over 500 million mu in the 1980s. Among which only over 200 million mu were suitable for agricultural production; the rest could be used for orchard and livestock production. This reduction is the result of land reclamation for 38 years from early 1950s to the end of the 1980s, when most fertile land were reclaimed. Table 7 shows land utilization situation and its development potential. 10. Most of the above mentioned over 200 million mu of potential agricultural land are located in either the remote areas, or poor in production conditions. It is by no means an easy job to reclaim this land, as much of it is poor in soil fertility, suffering from salinity and alkalinity, desertification, or is low swamp land. The following paragraphs briefly describe the situation of the potential land resources. 11. Northeastern Area (Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang and east of Inner Mongolia). There are in total 41 million mu of barren land suitable for agricultural production. Among which, about 13 million mu are distributed in Sanjiang Plain, over 8 million mu in Songnen Plain and Heihe Rive Areas of Heilongjiang province. There are in total over 11 million mu in east of Inner Mongolia; 3.05 million mu in Songliao Plain, east low hilly area and Changbaishan Area of Jilin province; and 2.5 million mu in Liaohe Plain and Liaohe delta of Liaoning province. 12. Northwestern area (Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Xingjiang, Inner Mongolia and Shanxi). There are in total over 100 million mu of barren land suitable for agricultural production. Among which, about 10 million mu are located in Inner Mongolia and Hetao Area of Yellow River in Ningxia. Most of which suffer from serious salinity and alkalinity problem due to high underground water level; 79 million mu are located in Xinjiang and Hexi Corridor of Gansu province where irrigation is badly needed; and 6.3 million mu are distributed in Qinghai where salinity and alkalinity control, as well as irrigation, are essential. 13. Middle and Lower Ranges of Yangtze River. There are in total over 24 million mu of barren land suitable for agricultural production, which are distributed mainly in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Jiangxi provinces, Jianghan Plain of Hubei, Middle Hubei Hills, and Xiangnan and Dongtinghu Lake area of Hunan province. -81- ANNEX4 14. North China Area: There are in total 10 million mu of barren land, covering areas of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong and Anhui. This is mainly saline and alkaline land at sea sides, as well as sandy areas of the old river courses. 15. Southwestern Area. There are in total 16 million mu, half of which are distributed in Sichuan basin and its surrounding mountains, as well as Anning River Basin. 16. South China Area. There are in total 13 million mu, distributing mainly in the east coastal area of Guangdong, Zhujiang Delta, northeast and southeast of Guilin, and Hainan Island. 17. The reclamation rate of such land is estimated at 60 percent, as infrastructures such as irrigation channels, rural roads, etc., would occupy quite a lot of land. 18. Table 8-10 shows barren land resources suitable for agricultural production by region, their distribution and land reclamation by province and year. 19. Investment cost for land reclamation vary from place to place, depending on the land conditions of the localities. The cost estimate of some selected representative provinces is as follows: Barren Land Potential Unit Investment Area Cultivated Land Cost Total Cost -------------(million ha)------------ (Y/ha) (Y billion) Inner Mongolia 9.30 1 30,000 30 Heilongjiang 2.50 1.04 10,000 10.4 Jiangxi 1.4 0.7 40,000-50,000 35 Hubei 2.27 0.23 45,000 10.35 Yunnan 5.8 0.33 30,000 9.9 Xingjiang 5 3.6 23,000 82.8 Tidal Land Resources 20. China has one of the longest coastal lines in the world, about 18,000 km; 11 provinces have coastlines. There are four tidal land areas with the total area of 3.53 million ha. In addition, there are 7.5 million ha of shallow sea, which could be devoted mainly to aquaculture. These lands are located near densely populated areas where social, economic and technical conditions favor development. Also, it is favored with abundant heat, water and light resources. -82- ANNEX4 21. The tidal land area is composed of three parts: on-tidal land, intertidal land and extended tidal land. The distribution of the tidal land area follows: Distribution of Tidal Land On-tidal Intertidal Extended tidal (thousand hectares) Reclaimed 444 635 13 Undeveloped 874 1,441 132 Total 1,318 2,076 145 -83- ANNEX5 ANNEX 5: WATER RESOURCES 1. Chinese statistical practice makes it difficult to quantify the importance of water resources to food production. Neither the area of individual crops, crop production, nor crop yield is distinguished by irrigated and nonirrigated land. Yet authoritative sources assert that two-thirds of crop production comes from irrigated farmland.46 2. The primary measure of water resources is runoff, either directly from rainfall or from seasonal snowmelt. Water resources are divided into surface water and groundwater. Except for very deep deposits (called "fossil" water), groundwater occurs as a result of surface water seepage. China is relatively poor in surface water resources. But the global China statistic masks an even greater disparity within China. "China- South" refers to the Yangtze and Pearl River Basins which get nearly one-half of China's runoff. "China-North" refers to the Yellow, Liaohe, Hailuan, and Huaihe Basins, which receive only 6 percent of China's runoff, yet must support nearly 40 percent of its population. Water Resource Regions 3. In the early 1980's, the National Water Resources Assessment group divided the country into ten water resources regions, roughly based on the boundaries of major river basins. The Ministry of Water Resources (MWR) and other agencies adopted this classification with minor changes, and call it the "first level" disaggregation. There are several variations, but the one used here combines the Heilongjiang and Liaohe Basins into the "Northeast" basin. The MWR classification further divides the nine regions into a maximum of 14 "second level" regions, each of which is divided into between 2 and 16 "third level" regions. Few data are published at the second level. 46 "Water Resources Development in China", p. 362. -84- ANNEX5 Table 1: Ministry of Water Resources "First Level" Regions Region Name Component Provinces Major River Basins I Northeast Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Nei Heilong, Liaohe, Songhua Mongol II Haihe Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanxi, Henan, Haihe, Luanhe Shandong III Huai/Shandong Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui Huaihe IV Yellow Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, Nei Mongol, Yellow, Weihe, Fenhe Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan a V Yangtze Hubei, Hunan, Anhui, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Yangtze Shanghai, Zhejiang, Henan, Guangxi, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan VI South Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan Pearl VII Southeast Fujian, Zhejiang, Guangdong Qiangtang, Minjiang VIII Southwest Yunnan, Tibet Yarlung-Zangbo, Nujiang, Lancang, Yuanjiang IX Northwest Nei Mongol, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Tibet Tarim, Yili, Ertix 4. Region I-Northeast. Region I is located in the far northeastern part of China, and includes the Liaohe and Heilong basins plus the latter's major tributary, the Songhua. It includes all of Heilongliang, Jilin, and Liaoning provinces, and part of Nei Mongol. Region I is the third largest in terms of physical area, and the second largest in terms of cultivated area. Rainfall is low (511 mm average) and the climate is harsh in the winter. Effective irrigated area (EIA)47 is only 48 million mu, 16 percent of cultivated area. In 1980, only 33 percent of EIA could be irrigated. We will divide Region I in Ia (Heilong- Songhua) and Ib (Liaohe) where data availability permit. 5. Region II-Haihe. Region II is located in northeastern China between Region I on the north and the Yellow River basin on the south and west. It includes the Haihe and Luanhe river basins, the major metropolitan areas of Beijing and Tianjin, all of Hebei province, and parts of Shanxi, Henan, and Shandong. Rainfall is low (560 mm average) and runoff is highly variable. Nearly two-thirds of cultivated area is effective irrigated area, but assured and actual areas are fractions of this due to chronic water shortages. 6. Region III-Huai/Shandong Peninsula. Region III is located in eastern central China, bounded on the north by the Yellow River basin boundary, on the south by the Yangtze basin boundary, and on the east by the Yellow Sea. The largest component is 47 Effective irrigated area (EIA) is land that has been prepared to receive irrigation, and is connected with a water supply source. Actual irrigated area (AIA) is that part of EIA which is actually irrigated in a given year. -85- ANNEX5 the Huai basin (referred to as IIIa) which includes parts of Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu provinces. The Shandong component (Region IIb) includes a network of coastal rivers in southeastern Shandong province. 7. Region IV-Yellow River Basin. Region IV encompasses the entire Yellow River basin, the second longest in China. It includes all of Ningxia province and parts of eight others. The two major tributaries of the Yellow, the Weihe, is located in Shaanxi province, and the Fenhe in Shanxi. Average rainfall (464 mm average) is the lowest among the nine regions, with the exception of Region IX. Catchment area is about 200 million mu, about 65 million of which is EIA. The major problems confronting the basin are high variability of surface water runoff, droughts, and extremely high sediment content, mainly affecting the lower reach. Because of the size and variability of the factors affecting agriculture, we will disaggregate Region IV into IVa (upper reach- source to Hekozhen), IVb (middle reach-Hekzozhen to Sanmenxia), and IVc (lower reach-Sanmenxia to the Bohai Sea). 8. Regions II, III and IV are sometimes discussed as group Hai-Huai-Huanghe ("H-H-H") as they adjoin one another, and they have similar climatic characteristics and water shortage problems. Regions I through IV will collectively be termed the "north" in this paper. 9. Regions V-(Yangtze), VI (South or Pearl), VII (Southeast) and VIII (Southwest). Combined, these regions contain 36 percent of the area of China, 83 percent of surface water resources, and produce about 60 percent of the nation's agricultural output. Average rainfall exceeds 1,000 mm in each of these regions. Climate is favorable, permitting two or three crops per year. Rice dominates the cropping pattern, but all other crops grow well. The problems facing agriculture have little to do with the availability of water, but more on its control and distribution. Flooding is a perennial problem, particularly in the vast Yangtze basin. 10. Region IX-Inland Rivers. Region IX is the largest of all with over 35 percent of China's land area. It includes all of the vast Xinjiang Province, and parts of Tibet, Qinghai, Gansu, and Nei Mongol. Most of Region IX is desert or wasteland. Average rainfall is the lowest in China (158 mm). Apart from pasture, virtually all agriculture depends on irrigation. The largest river basin in Region IX is the Tarim (which we shall call IXa) with about 30 percent of the Region's area and nearly half of its total surface water runoff. Other smaller basins includes the Yili on China's- far western border, and the Ertix in the far northwest. The Ertix drains to the Former Soviet Union, which by treaty, is entitled to most of its runoff. 11. Table 2 presents the basic data on 1980 area, irrigated area, and surface water resources for the water resource regions. -86- ANNEX5 Table 2: Agricultural Areas, and Surface Water Resources Agricultural Areas 1980 (million mu) Rainfall and Runoff, 1956-79 Cultivated Effective Region Total Area Area Irrigated Rainfall Runoff 23 3 km2 mm billion m mm billion m Northeast I 1,248,445 302.7 47.9 511 637.7 132 165.3 Haihe II 318,161 167.7 95.4 560 178.1 91 28.8 HuailShandong III 329,211 228.3 136.0 860 283 0 225 74.1 Yellow IV 794,712 194.7 63.5 464 369.1 83 66.2 Yangtze V 1,808,500 367.3 226.1 1,071 1936.0 530 951.3 South VI 580,641 103.9 69.8 1,544 896.7 807 468.5 SE China VII 239,803 39.2 30.2 1,758 421.6 1,066 255.7 SW China VIII 851,406 26.9 8.8 1,098 934.6 688 585.3 Inland IX 3,374,443 88.9 53.0 158 532.1 35 116.4 Total 9,545,322 1,519.5 730.6 648 6,188.9 3,179 2,711.5 Use of Water Resources 12. Water consumption is as difficult to measure as a resource. Most provinces and some river basin authorities publish such water consumption data annually, but 1980 data are the last comprehensive China-wide data published. Typically consumption is measured as the difference between gross diversions of surface water plus gross extractions of groundwater and the return flows to the river systems, augmented by easier-to-measure flows such as use of water by municipalities and large industries. 13. Table 3 gives the consumption pattern in 1980, by region and consuming sector. Urban "life" includes urban household and municipal uses. Rural "life" includes rural household and direct consumption by livestock. "Other rural" includes pasture, forestry, and fish farming. -87- ANNEX5 Table 3: 1980 Water Consumption and Source (billion M3) Water Consumption Water Supply Source Urban Rural Other Total Surfac Ground Total Life Industry Irrigation Life Rural Cons. e Water Water Water Northeast 1 1.0 6.4 23.9 1.2 2.9 35.4 26.9 8.5 35.4 Haihe II 1.1 4.9 30.4 1.5 0.4 38.3 18.1 20.2 38.3 H/S III 0.5 3.8 45.4 2.7 0.7 53.1 40.2 12.9 53.1 Yellow IV 0.6 2.8 30.6 1.0 0.8 35.8 27.4 8.4 35.8 Yangtze V 2.2 20.9 104.1 7.5 0.6 135.3 128.6 6.7 135.3 South VI 1.0 4.6 55.1 5.4 0.0 66.0 65.4 0.6 66.0 SE China VII 0.2 1.6 16.6 0.9 0.0 19.3 18.8 0.5 19.3 SW China VIII 0.0* 0.1 3.9 0.3 0.1 4.4 4.3 0.1 4.4 Inland IX 0.2 0.7 47.9 0.8 6.2 55.8 51.9 3.9 55.8 Total 6.8 45.8 357.9 21.3 11.6 443.4 381.6 61.8 443.4 Distribution 1.5% 10.3% 80.7% 4.8% 2.6% 100.0% 86.1 13.9% 100.0% 14. Irrigation accounted for 80.7 percent of total consumption in 1980, while all rural activities totaled 88 percent. Groundwater supplied 14 percent and surface water 86 percent, but in Region II, groundwater supplied more than half. In general, the drier north relies much more heavily on groundwater than other regions, but much of groundwater is used to meet M&I demands as it is the more reliable source. 15. The mean annual total volume of water resources is 2,812 billion m3, but exploitable supplies in 1980 were only 473.5, or 17 percent of this. Increases in exploitable water can only come about through investments in storage, diversion works, pumps, and conveyance systems. Hence, the volume of exploitable supplies can be considered a water supply constraint. For reference such investments increased exploitable supplies to about 576 billion m by 1993, and plans call for supplies of about 668 billion bcm by 2000 (discussed below). It has been estimated that the maximum exploitable water in the entire country is about 1,000 billion M3, or 36 percent of total water resources.48 This small percentage derives from the fact that much of surface water runoff occurs as flood season flows, often heavily laden with silt, and that much of the groundwater resource is located in mountainous or otherwise inaccessible areas. 48 Ibid, p. 385. -88- ANNEX5 IRRIGATION Data Issues 16. Published statistics do not distinguish irrigated crop production from total production, nor do they give irrigated vs. nonirrigated crop yields. Such information is critical to any analysis of the importance of irrigation to the food security question; these data were generated by a series of estimating processes. Data available: Area (1) Total cropped area (physical area) (2) Total sown area (3) Total irrigated cropped area (physical area) (4) Effective irrigated area Production (5) Total production Implicit Data (6) Total cropping intensity (6) = (2)/(1) (7) Aggregate crop yield; (7) = (5)/(2) 17. All of the above are available by province and hence agricultural region. Effective irrigated area is available for various years by province; the most recent by water region is 1987. Area, production, and implied yields are given in the Statistical Annex tables, by province. Water Use (8) Water consumption in irrigation by water region, 1980 and projections to 2000 (9) Water consumption in irrigation for Yellow River Basin, 1988 - 1993. (Data probably include non-irrigation rural consumption) Information to be generated: (9a) Water consumption in irrigation for 1995 by water region and agricultural region (10) Irrigated cropping intensity and/or irrigated sown area -89- ANNEX5 (11) Irrigated production and/or irrigated crop yields (12) Water consumption by irrigated crop (13) Yield as a function of irrigation application rate 18. After obtaining the additional statistics, the impacts of changes in the EIA, water available to irrigation, and changes in the cropping pattern can be estimated. 19. A least-squares estimation procedure (using nonlinear programming models programmed in GAMS) is used which minimizes the sum of squared deviations from assumed values while ensuring aggregate consistency in all variables for which data permit. The assumptions rely on conventional wisdom as derived from published or expert sources such as: "irrigated yields are twice rainfed yields," "irrigation accounts for two-thirds of crop production," "most irrigation water is applied to grain crops." Presumably, such statements derive from statistical data or reasoned analysis. The model determines if such statements are both useful characterizations, and consistent with the aggregate picture. Aggregation Problems 20. Agricultural data such as cropped areas, crop production, livestock populations, and fertilizer consumption are reported on the basis of provinces. The seven agricultural regions are exact aggregates of provinces (Statistical Annex Table 1.1). But few water- related data are available by province; most are reported on the basis of the water regions defined earlier. Water regions are far from exact aggregates of provinces; parts of some provinces belong to three or four water regions. In order to relate water issues to agricultural issues, some data mapping is necessary. The water region delineation was used, given its focus, and given a lack of information with which to map water to provinces and/or agricultural regions. 21. The only data which can (in theory) be mapped precisely is total area and total water resources, as these are the only numbers for which province and water region data strictly compare, and for which the totals agree. But the numerical results do not produce a precise mapping, indicating that there are errors in the reported statistics. [For example, the least-squares mapping model which produced the area mapping of provinces to water regions insisted on placing 2 percent of the area of Qinghai province in Region VII, whereas a geographic map shows that this to be impossible.] Therefore, all agricultural data presented on a water region basis is necessarily imprecise, but reflect the best estimates possible. -90- ANNEX5 Irrigated Land 22. Effective irrigated area (EIA) is land which has been leveled and bundled and is connected to a source of irrigation, either from surface or groundwater sources. EIA is therefore the primary measure of the potential for irrigation expansion. China's total EIA was about 730 million mu (48.7 million ha) in 1980. Of total EIA, only a portion is classified as "assured," meaning that it has access to stable groundwater supplies and/or surface water supplies with a probability of 0.75 (P75). "Actual" irrigated area (AIA) is the amount of EIA that is reported to have been cultivated at least once in the reference year. In 1980, this was only 381 million mu, far less than the assured area, implying that it was a very dry year, at least in northern China. Actual sown irrigated area is not reported in any of the statistical tables. We assume that where double or triple cropping occurs, it likely takes place on irrigated land. Irrigated Cropping Pattern 23. The next stage is to estimate the irrigated sown area and the irrigated cropping pattern. The information available is total (irrigated plus rainfed) sown area by the major crops, plus qualitative information on which crops are likely to be irrigated. For example, rice will almost always be irrigated, wheat, corn, cotton, vegetables will be irrigated when and where water is available, and orchards, soybeans, oilseeds, and "others" will be irrigated occasionally. This qualitative information was given numerical values ranging from 0 to 1 depending on the likelihood that a given crop in a given region will be irrigated as opposed to rainfed. Typical values for these "guesses" are 1 for rice everywhere, .9 for vegetables, .7 for wheat, .6 for corn, .3 for orchards, oilseeds, and others. The guesses vary across regions because the greater the rainfall, the less likely is a given crop to require irrigation. 24. Obviously, the assumed irrigated crop areas will not sum to the estimated total sown irrigated area, except by coincidence. Therefore, a least-squares GAMS model was constructed which minimizes the squared deviations of guessed irrigated crop areas from solved irrigated crop areas, while enforcing: (a) the sum of irrigated crop areas equal to total irrigated sown area; and (b) the sum of irrigated and rainfed sown areas equal to reported sown areas. The results of this model are shown in Table 4. -91- ANNEX5 Table 4: Estimated Irrigated and Rainfed Sown Area (1,000/ha) 1 11 III IV V VI VII VIII IX A. Irrigated Sown Area Winter wheat 0 2,395 6,658 2,541 5,596 409 252 213 715 Spring wheat 375 418 0 498 0 42 0 19 596 Corn 1,242 1,663 2,484 881 1,605 310 58 55 573 Northern Rice 1,098 258 480 303 0 0 0 0 98 Early Rice 0 0 0 0 4,157 3,400 1,212 17 0 Single Rice 0 0 943 0 6,832 874 513 292 0 Late Rice 0 0 490 0 5,326 3,613 1,305 11 0 Vegetables-melon 451 769 1,951 655 3,444 2,384 620 84 159 Orchards 131 890 1,357 570 1,283 769 411 50 192 Tubers 0 473 987 211 1,621 430 248 53 29 Soybeans 358 946 1,208 566 1,789 402 210 71 180 Oilseeds 0 505 1,198 213 2,137 430 201 68 327 Cotton 11 752 1,707 340 1,488 5 65 1 745 Other Grain 0 512 575 163 865 150 147 106 83 Other 0 78 199 124 685 430 65 52 96 Total 3,666 9,659 20236 7,063 36,828 13,648 5,305 1,094 3,792 B. Rainfed Sown Area Winter wheat 4 707 2,442 1,353 1,390 177 0 32 72 Spring wheat 988 310 0 438 0 0 0 0 212 Corn 5,031 1,944 1,983 1,372 2,064 1010 0 284 249 Northern Rice 640 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Early Rice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Single Rice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Late Rice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Vegetables-melon 464 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Orchards 469 331 0 681 0 1,002 164 0 50 Tubers 428 295 256 854 2,083 1,393 132 52 164 Soybeans 2968 467 77 648 614 423 18 117 203 Oilseeds 430 639 1,108 1,099 3595 908 183 0 228 Cotton 20 11 97 54 124 0 0 0 3 Other Grain 977 1,266 0 1467 86 44 0 104 396 Other 609 59 0 48 317 828 0 164 40 Total 13,028 6,027 5,962 8,014 10,272 5,784 495 752 1,617 C. Total Sown Area Winter wheat 4 3,102 9,099 3,893 6,986 586 252 246 788 Spring wheat 1,363 728 0 935 0 42 0 19 807 Corn 6,273 3,607 4,467 2,253 3,669 1,320 58 339 822 Northern Rice 1,738 258 480 303 0 0 0 0 98 Early Rice 0 0 0 0 4,157 3,400 1,212 17 0 Single Rice 0 0 943 0 6,832 874 513 292 0 Late Rice 0 0 490 0 5,326 3,613 1,305 11 0 Vegetables-melon 915 769 1,951 655 3,444 2,384 620 84 159 Orchards 600 1,221 1,357 1,251 1,283 1,771 574 50 241 Tubers 428 768 1,243 1,065 3,703 1,823 380 105 193 Soybeans 3,326 1,413 1,284 1,215 2,402 824 227 188 383 Oilseeds 430 1,143 2,306 1,312 5,732 1,338 384 68 555 Cotton 31 763 1,804 394 1,612 5 65 1 748 Other Grain 977 1,778 575 1630 951 194 147 210 479 Other 609 136 199 173 1,002 1258 65 216 136 Total 16,694 15,686 26,198 15,078 47,100 19,431 5,800 1,846 5,408 25. The model estimated that 30 percent of total sown irrigated area is in rice, 21 percent in wheat, 9 percent in corn, and 10 percent in vegetables and melons. Twenty percent is in other crops, including cotton, which is 5 percent of the total. Almost two- thirds of sown area is irrigated. Given that irrigated yields are likely to be higher than rainfed yields, considerably more than two-thirds of crop production comes from irrigated land. -92- ANNEX 5 Irrigation Water Requirements49 26. For the purpose of defining irrigation water requirements, Chinese practice is to divide the country into three "irrigation zones" (Map 2), broadly based on precipitation patterns, and the "irrigation index"--the percentage of crop water requirements which must be met from irrigation. The working paper lists the irrigated crops in each zone and area, total water and irrigation water requirements, and irrigation index for a "dry" year (P75) and a "wet" year (P25). CROPWAT Results 27. These irrigation requirement statistics provide a range for selected crops and areas, but do not cover all regions, and not all crops are fully irrigated. CROPWAT and CLIMWAT models were used to address this information deficiency. 28. CROPWAT is a computer program developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations to assist in designing irrigation schedules.0 CLIMWAT is an associated climatalogical data set that contains data for many stations around the world, including about 150 within mainland China. The data set includes mean values (over 15-25 years) for temperature, rainfall, effective rainfall, humidity, wind, solar radiation, and reference evapotranspiration (ETO). CROPWAT contains data for about 30 crops, and can calculate irrigation requirements for them and for any station. 29. To speed calculations for any crop-station combination, the basic method was reprogrammed in GAMS. There are certain details that are not specifically reported in the CROPWAT documentation which prevent precise reproduction of the results by the GAMS version. However, the important results can be approximated. The GAMS version takes as input monthly effective rainfall and ETO, and crop calendars, as well as the crop-specific parameters contained in the CROPWAT data files. Irrigated vs. Rainfed Yields 30. As mentioned above, both CROPWAT and the GAMS version can produce estimates of the relative crop yield if no irrigation takes place. Two estimation methods are available, we use the simpler in which an annualized yield reduction factor (Ky) is applied to water deficits across the entire crop calendar, regardless in which stage or stages the water deficit occurs. The calculations find, for example that winter wheat yields under rainfed conditions are only 51 percent of the yields obtained under fully irrigated conditions in region IV, but achieve 100 percent of irrigated yields in the wettest southern regions. Full details are shown in the working paper. 49 This section, and Figure 2, draw heavily on "Water Resources in China, chapter 4. 5o CROPWAT is described in FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper #46 (Rome: FAO, 1992), and CLIMWAT in #49. Earlier papers (#24 and.#33) in the series described the methodology. -93- ANNEX5 31. Using these yield ratios, the published data on average yields in 1995, and estimates of irrigated and rainfed sown area, a least-squares GAMS model was used to estimate a consistent pattern of irrigated and rainfed yields for each of the agricultural regions. The model first makes "guesses" at irrigated yields by solving the equation: Y = Yi(%I) + aYi(%R) for Yi (irrigated yield), where Y is the published average yield, %I and %R are the percentages of sown land which are estimated to be irrigated and rainfed, and a is the ratio of rainfed to irrigated yield from the GAMS/CROPWAT exercise. The optimization then derives irrigated and rainfed yields which minimize the sum of squared deviations from the guesses, while enforcing overall production consistency on each crop P: P = Yi(I) + Yr(R) Irrigation Water Demands 32. With the estimated irrigated sown areas and crop water requirements, the total irrigation water demands was calibrated and extrapolated, under 1995 conditions of cropping patterns and intensities, and mean effective rainfall, using various scenarios described below. SCENARIO ANALYSIS The demand for irrigation water will depend on the following factors: * Effective irrigated area * Cropping pattern * Cropping intensity * Water price The supply of water available for irrigation will depend on: * Exploitable water supply (supply capacity) * Irrigation efficiencies * Competing demands * Wastewater generation and use * Drainage water re-use 33. To assess the impact of the water demand-supply situation on future food production the following factors were incorporated into the estimation model. -94- ANNEX5 Factor Quantitative Level low medium high ---------(percent growth rate per annum)--------------- Growth in irrigated yield to 2010 1.0 0.5 0 2020 0.5 0.25 0 Growth in rainfed yield to 2010 1.0 0.5 0 2020 0.5 0.25 0 Growth in rainfed index to 2010 1.0 05 0 Growth in cultivated area to 2010 0.5 0.0 -0.5 EIA 2010 0.45 0.225 0 Industrial Demand 2000 8 6 4 2020 4 3 2 Total Exploitable Water to 2000 1.5 0.75 0 2010 0.4 0.7 1.0 -- ------(percent of total)------ ---- M&I Returns 70 60 50 Usable Returns 70 50 30 Drainage Reuse 25 20 15 Irrigation Efficiencies 51-73 50-67 50-61 --------(qualitative variables)---------- Fertilizer Shift (balanced K20) Yes 4 percent shift in 2000, 4 percent shift in 2005, 4 percent shift in 2010. No fertilizer application remains unbalanced South-North Transfers Phase I Yes 20 bcm additional water available No Phase II Yes 25 bcm additional water available No 34. The model estimates water availability and requirements from the scenario selected, water deficits (if any) are determined and yields adjusted accordingly. Total crop production is then estimated for each of the nine water regions. For baseline estimates, the "high" option was selected for each factor, except medium options for industrial demand and cultivated area, and the "yes" scenarios were selected for the qualitative factors. Table 5: Production Projections for 2020 (million tons) 1995 2020 Rice 191.6 297.8 Wheat 102.2 141.4 Corn 112.1 155.8 Other Grains 21.1 31.1 Soybeans/pulses 13.5 19.5 Tubers 33.5 41.2 Oilseeds 22.5 28.8 Cotton 4.8 7.1 Vegetables 257.3 425.5 Fruits 42.1 57.8 -95- ANNEX6 ANNEX 6: GRAIN SUPPLIES GRAIN IMPORTS AND SUPPLY DESTABILIZATION 1. Aggregate supply trends for wheat, rice, and corn were computed for the 1985-95 period using production and net import as the supply components. Similarly, trends in the State's marketable supply were computed using State procurement and net imports as the supply components. For both aggregate supply and marketable supply, the standard errors of the estimates for wheat, rice and corn supplies were larger when net imports were included. That is, the impact of trade was to exacerbate fluctuations, both around trend lines and on a year-to-year basis. In years of high production imports tended to be more (or exports less) and in years of low production imports tended to be less (or exports more). The data analyzed are contained in the following table. Table 1: Components of Cereal Grain Supply (million tons) Wheat Rice Corn GB Net GB Net GB Net Productio Procure Imports Production Procure Imports Production Procure Imports n 1985 85.8 26.6 5.6 168.6 30.2 -0.7 63.8 17.7 -5.9 1986 90.0 28.5 5.7 172.2 32.6 -0.6 70.9 26.1 -5.0 1987 87.8 28.2 13.2 174.4 31.6 -0.5 79.8 32.0 -2.4 1988 85.7 26.9 14.5 171.2 32.1 -6.7 80.0 27.5 -3.8 1989 93.9 28.6 14.9 183.0 36.3 -0.9 80.4 25.9 -3.4 1990 99.4 25.5 12.5 191.7 31.5 -0.3 98.9 31.3 -3.0 1991 96.6 28.3 12.4 187.4 31.7 -0.5 100.8 30.2 -7.8 1992 103.4 34.5 10.6 186.2 30.9 -0.8 95.4 24.7 -10.3 1993 106.4 32.3 6.3 177.7 24.9 -1.3 102.7 26.4 -11.1 1994 99.3 32.3 7.2 175.9 26.1 -1.0 99.3 11.2 -8.7 1995 102.2 31.2 11.6 185.2 28.7 1.6 112.0 24.3 5.1 2. The standard error coefficients calculated around linear trend lines for both aggregate supply and marketed supply for the three cereals are listed below and clearly show that variability increased when net imports were included: -96- ANNEX6 Table 2: Standard Errors Around a Trend Line (million tons) Wheat Rice Corn Production 3.7 6.8 5.3 Production + net imports 4.3 7.8 7.9 G.B. Procurement 2.1 2.9 6.3 G.B. Procurement + net imports 3.4 3.4 8.7 3. Year-to-year fluctuations demonstrate similar characteristics. Standard deviations of the annual changes in production and Grain Bureau procurement were exacerbated by external trade. The standard deviations are generally larger than the above standard error terms as would be expected as trends are ignored in the calculation of standard deviations. The standard deviations above are listed below: Table 3: Standard Deviations for Annual Supply Changes (million tons) Wheat Rice Corn Production 4.9 6.7 7.5 Production + net 4.8 8.9 10.7 imports G.B. Procurement 2.8 3.2 8.1 G.B. Procurement + net imports 4.2 5.0 11.5 4. The data are plotted in the following graphs and vividly illustrate that net imports, rather than moderating supply peaks and troughs actually exacerbated the fluctuations. This reflects the fact that trade is planned several months in advance of the cropping season and subsequent implementation disregards actual production conditions but rigidly implements the trade plan. A more open, less rigid trade regime would be expected to moderate the fluctuations. -97- ANNEX 6 Wheat, Year-to-Year Fluctuations in GB Supplies 8 00 6.00 4.00 2 00 0.00. . -2.00 96 1987 IT88 1989 4990- 1991 1992 1993- 1994 19?5 -4 00 -- -6 00 8.00 - - - GB Procure - GB Procure.+Net Imports Corn, Year-to-Yea,r Fluctuations in GB Supplies 30 00 25 00 20 00 15 00 10 00 5 00 -0 0q986 1987 1989 1990 1993 199 , 19 5 -10 00 -15 00 -20 00 - - - GB Procure - GB Procure +Net Imports Rice, Year-to-Year Fluctuations 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 - 2.00 - - 0.00I -2.q986 19 198 1989 - 990 991 19 1993 1994 1995 -4.00 -- -6.00 -8.00 - - - GB Procure - GB Procure.+Net Imports -98- ANNEX6 Wheat, Year-to-Year Supply Fluctuations 10 00 8 00 6 00 4 00 / 2.0/ 000 -2 0(I986 19.8 1989 1990 1992 19 1994 1995 -4 00 -- -6 00 - -8 00 - -Production - Prod +Net Imports Production - Prod +Net Imports Corn, Year-to-Year Supply Fluctuations 30 0 25.0 20 0 8 15.0 a 10.0 5. 5.0 -5.019 6 1987 1988 1989 1990 19 9 1993 4 19?5 10 0 - -Production - Prod+net Imports Rice, Year-to-Year Supply Fluctuations 20 0 15 0 - 100 a 5.0/ S I0 0--/ ... 1986 1987 1989 1990 9 9 1993 94 19 5 -5 0 - 1 -10 0 - -Production - Prod+net Imports -99- ANNEX7 ANNEX 7: GLOBAL TRADE ANALYSIS PROJECT MODEL 1. This is a general equilibrium model of the world economy and includes a relatively complete representation of production, income determination, consumption, trade distortions and trade for each region represented in the model. (The regions are indicated in Table 2.) The general equilibrium formulation allows the model to capture the intersectoral competition for resources, and the importance of overall resource constraints, in each region-issues that are ignored in traditional partial equilibrium models of agricultural markets. The model uses proven techniques from the computable general equilibrium literature to specify the structure of each economy and of bilateral trade flows between economies. The input-output table for each region provides most of the base data needed to specify the structure of the economy in that region, while bilateral trade flow matrices provide most of the information needed to link the regions. Parsimonious functional forms such as the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) are widely used throughout the model, so that only a relatively small number of independently-estimated parameters must be supplied. 2. The main focus of this study is on how the changes in the structure of the Chinese and world economies will effect China's food balance. While the absolute size of China's food balances would change simply because of overall growth, most of the important changes in China's agricultural trade patterns are likely to arise either from changes in trade policy or from structural changes in the Chinese economy that affect either the shares of agricultural products in output, or the shares of agricultural products in demand 3. Changes in the structure of production in China will depend on a number of factors including: (a) the pressures placed on the land base by increases in the size of the economy; (b) changes in the allocation of resources between agriculture and the rest of the economy; and (c) differential rates of technological change. Each of these factors is explicitly represented in the model. The use of land is captured by an input-output structure that requires the use of land, along with labor, physical capital, human capital and intermediate inputs, in the production of agricultural products. The differences in the input requirements of each sector have important implications for the structure of output-increases in the supply of capital tend to favor capital-intensive sectors in manufacturing relative to labor-intensive agriculture. Differential rates of technical change are incorporated through factor-augmenting technical progress in particular sectors. A neutral increase in the rate of technical change in a particular sector raises the productivity of all factors in that sector. This has two distinct effects on resource use. Firstly, it reduces the quantity of factors needed to produce a given output. Secondly, it increases the competitiveness and, typically, the output of the sector. Whether -100- ANNEX7 employment of resources in the sector declines or increases depends upon the. lative importance of these two effects. 4. Changes in the structure of demand will result from differences in the effect of income growth on the demand for particular goods. The model addresses this by representing consumer demand using a relatively sophisticated specification, the Constant Difference of Elasticities (CDE) function, which allows for differences in the income elasticities of demand for particular goods. The income elasticities of demand for basic commodities such as coarse grains tend to be very low, or even negative, except in extremely low income countries. In China, these elasticities are likely to be lower than would be expected given China's income levels, because initial consumption levels for these commodities appear to be relatively high. The income elasticities for manufactured consumer goods and for services, by contrast, are likely to be substantially higher. Over a period, such as that used in the analysis, where per capita incomes are expected to grow substantially, the income elasticities cannot remain constant". In high growth economies such as China, the CDE system therefore reduces the income elasticities as total expenditure increases. 5. The initial values of the income elasticities for consumer demand in China in the original version of the model are given in Table 1 (second last column). These elasticities are based on a study by Wang and Kinsey (1994) and appear to be broadly consistent with the econometric evidence obtained from a wide range of studies surveyed by Chem (1997). However, the table illustrates a wide range of estimates of income elasticities for food in China in the literature, perhaps because of the pervasive changes in the structure of food markets in China over the past twenty years, and perhaps due to the inability to filter out the effects of rationing which applied during most of the time for which data are available. To get into closer agreement with the other recent studies of food demand, initial income elasticities for grains were adjusted to the levels shown in the final column. To fulfill the restrictions posed by economic theory this will change all other income elasticities slightly. 6. Trade distortions in the model are typically represented using the ad valorem equivalents of the prevailing distortions. Important trade measures represented explicitly in the model include tariffs, anti-dumping measures in the major industrial countries, and the Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA). A range of other nontariff barriers can also be introduced, as long as information is available about the resulting gap between domestic and world prices. Where the introduction of tariff bindings is being considered, the post- binding tariff is estimated by taking the lower of the initial applied rate and the binding. Tariff data are averaged up from the tariff line level to the broader commodity aggregates used in the model. Even where tariffs are applied uniformly across countries, this process tends to result in differences in the tariff rates imposed on supplying regions, because of s1 If they did, the weighted average income elasticity of demand would exceed unity, violating one of the most fundamental restrictions imposed by demand theory. -101- ANNEX7 differences in the composition of trade. Thus, the model specifies tariff rates as differing across supplying regions. The aggregate import tariffs for the year 1992 are shown in table 6 in the result section. Table 1: Income elasticities of demand for China Commodities Huang Rosegrant USDA GTAP Rural Urban Rural Urban Original Revised Grain 0.15 0.00 Rice 0.20 0.10 000 0.01 -0.10 022 -0.05 Wheat 0.20 0.11 -0.05 0.36 0.08 Maize -0.19 Coarse grains 0.11 -0.08 -0.16 -0.11 -0.15 009 -018 Non grain crops 0.75 0.66 Meat 0.76 0.85 Milk 1.56 1.64 Livestock 1.11 0.98 Meat and milk 1 10 062 Fish 1.05 1.24 Other food products 0.99 0.68 Natural resources 1.06 0.94 Textiles 1.07 0.95 Wearing apparel 1.07 0.95 Light manufactures 140 1.24 Transport industries 1.55 1.38 Machinery and equipment 1.55 1.38 Heavy manufactures 149 1 32 Services 1.29 1 14 Note: There are different classifications. In case the elasticities vary within the period, an average is given. The commodities in the present version of the GTAP model are in bold. Sources: Huang, Rozelle, & Rosengrant, 1995; Rosegrant, Agcaoili-Sombilla, & Perez, 1997; ERS/USDA, 1996; GTAP, 1996. 7. The bilateral export quotas on textile and clothing exports imposed under the MFA create the same trade-restricting impacts as export taxes and are specified using information about the export tax equivalents of these measures. In some simulations, it is the growth rate of the quotas, rather than the export tax equivalent, that is varied. Table 2: Regions and Commodities FACTORS and SECTORS COMMODITIES COUNTRIES/REGIONS Land Other food products China Labor Natural resources Hong Kong & Taiwan Human Capital Textiles Korea & Singapore Physical Capital Wearing apparel Rest of ASEAN Rice Light manufactures South Asia Wheat Transport industries Japan Coarse grains Machinery and equipment Australia & New Zealand Non grain crops Heavy manufactures NAFTA Livestock Services Western Europe Meat and milk Capital goods Rest of World -102- ANNEX7 8. The full version of the current GTAP database covers 37 commodities and 30 regions. However, to keep the model within computational limits and to focus on the issues to be analyzed it is aggregated to 10 regions and 15 commodities of which five are primary agricultural goods. Regions, factors and commodities are given in Table 2. Assumptions used in the simulations 9. The model can be used to project changes in the structure of the world economy with only a relatively small number of exogenous variables. The projections are shaped by shocking total population, the factor endowments, land, labor, human capital and physical capital, and deriving an estimate for total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The values used for all of these key variables are presented, together with the resulting projection for real GDP, in Table 3 over the initial sample period, 1992-2005. This period was chosen because it runs from the model's benchmark year of 1992 to the end of the implementation period for the Uruguay Round. Table 3: Estimated Percent Change Per Year in GDP, Population, Factors and Productivity, 1992-2005 GDP Capital Pop Labor Human TFP TFP TFP capital crops livestock other China 8.27 9.96 0.89 1.17 3.51 1.00 2.00 2.37 Hong Kong & Taiwan 5.88 8.86 0.71 1.12 4.75 2.00 2.25 0.35 Korea & Singapore 7.00 8.75 0.84 0.90 6.21 2.00 2.25 0.96 Rest of ASEAN 7.30 8.64 1.55 2.16 7.35 2.00 2.25 -0.16 South Asia 5.27 5.62 1.79 2.30 5.80 2.00 2.25 0.78 Japan 2.75 4.34 0.22 -0.17 3.80 1.40 1.65 0.02 Australia & New 3.31 2.94 1.05 1.12 4.57 1.60 1.85 0.50 Zealand NAFTA 2.77 3.26 1.11 1.29 4.57 1.60 1.85 -0.14 Western Europe 2.48 2.53 0.15 0.09 5.99 2.00 2.25 -0.14 Rest of World 2.86 1.98 1.89 2.21 4.98 2.00 2.25 0.24 Note: TFP grains (rice, wheat, coarse grains), TFP o.agr (other agriculture), TFP other (all other sectors). Source: Ahuja, Vinod, & Filmer, 1995; Kraay, 1997; Nehru & Dhareshwar, 1993; World Bank, 1995a; World Bank, 1995b 10. A one percent TFP growth in grain production in China. This is consistent with studies showing relatively low TFP growth rates for agriculture in China in late eighties and early nineties (Lin, 1992; Wu & Yang, 1995; Wen, 1993). Funding (in real terms) for agricultural research in China have been declining. For agriculture other than grains (other crops and livestock) a two percent annual TFP growth is assumed. 11. A second set of simulations was conducted over the period from 1992 to 2020. While growth rates over this period are necessarily much more conjectural, we were interested in the longer term implications of the forces that are driving the process of -103- ANNEX7 structural change and the impact on food security. The growth rates of GDP and of inputs for this scenario are presented in Table 4. Table 4: Estimated Percent Change Per Year in GDP, Population, Factors and Productivity, 1992-2020 GDP Capital Pop Labor Hum TFP TFP TFP cap. crops livestock other China 6.97 8.23 0.76 0.89 3.54 1.00 2.00 1.67 Hong Kong & Taiwan 5.33 7.38 0.60 0.36 3.94 2.00 2.25 0.67 Korea & Singapore 5.97 7.56 0.66 0.37 3.63 2.00 2.25 1.07 Rest of ASEAN 7.00 8.80 1.33 1.72 5.85 2.00 2.25 -0.22 South Asia 5.73 6.74 1.60 2.07 4.79 2.00 2.25 1.02 Japan 2.63 4.80 0.05 -0.50 3.80 1.40 1.65 -0.34 Australia & New 2.18 3.16 0.81 0.63 4.57 1.60 1.85 -0.67 Zealand NAFTA 2.18 3.16 0.94 0.63 4.57 1.60 1.85 -0.52 Western Europe 2.46 2.99 0.04 -0.40 5.99 2.00 2.25 -0.35 Rest of World 3.84 3.59 1.71 2.65 4.98 2.00 2.25 0.26 Note: See Table 3. Source: Kraay, 1997; Srinivasan, 1996. 12. The annual growth rates of GDP and some of the key factor inputs are significantly lower for China, and some of her major trading partners, over the longer projection period. The changes in the pattern of output and demand will also reflect changes such as declines in income elasticities of demand, and the continuing move from less to more capital-intensive sectors. Projection Scenarios 13. A total of eight scenarios are conducted-the two base line scenarios to the year 2005 and the year 2020, and six policy scenarios. The scenarios are briefly described in table 5. 14. Given the focus on trade policies, a particularly important feature of each experiment is the change that it causes in the rates of protection applying to Chinese industries. The final rates of protection applying under each scenario are reported in Table 6. The key differences in Table 6 are between 1992 and the BAO5 line scenario, and between the baseline scenario and the WTO scenario. The baseline implements the 1996 tariff line information so that the protection level is updated to reflect our most recent knowledge. For meat and milk, for instance, this leads to an increase in the tariff rate from a negative 6 percent in 1992 to a positive 36 percent in 1996. This updated tariff information is then our starting point in the WTO scenario where we implement the second Chinese tariff offer to the WTO. As seen in table 6 we assume in both the baseline and the WTO scenarios that the tariff rates on rice and wheat move to zero from a negative protection level in 1992. While some estimates have shown domestic grain -104- ANNEX7 prices to be above world market prices (35.3 percent for wheat, 14.4 percent for rice, 20.7 percent for corn and 27.6 percent for soy bean (Ma, 1996)), more recent price comparisons show domestic prices to be very close to world market prices. Table 5: Model Scenarios--Overview Abbreviation Description BA05 Base line projection to the year 2005. Projections: Population, labor, physical capital, human capital, total factor productivity. TFP growth in other sectors derived from GDP targets (see Table 3). Policies: Uruguay Round, MFA quota growth rates for textiles and apparel in China, quotas abolished elsewhere; 1996 tariff rates for China, except for grains where negative protection rates are brought to zero (wheat, rice) and positive protection rates held constant (coarse grains), reflecting developments in China's grain policies. WTO WTO accession As for BAO5 but with abolition of the MFA quotas against China, and implementation of the tariffs contained in the second Chinese offer to the WTO. Tariff rates on grains remain equal to zero. BIN WTO plus tariffs bindings on grains. As for WTO but with import tariffs on grains going up to the bindings submitted to the WTO. GO5 Grain import 5 percent of domestic consumption in the year 2005. As for WTO but with import levels fixed at 95 percent of consumption. PHI TFP agriculture high As for WTO but with TFP in agriculture equal to 0.5 percent. PLO TFP agriculture low As for WTO but with TFP in agriculture equal to 1.5 percent. BA20 Base line projection to the year 2020 As for WTO but projected further to the year 2020 (see table 4). G20 Grain import 5 percent of domestic consumption in the year 2020. As for BA20 but with import levels fixed at 95 percent of consumption. 15. For most nonagricultural commodities the WTO scenario leads to a reduction in protection. Some of the largest reductions are seen on meat and milk and on other food products. Apart from tariff liberalization in China, we further assume that joining the WTO would mean abolishment of the restrictions imposed on China's exports of textiles and wearing apparel under the Multi-Fibre Agreement. Note that the scenarios do not take into account the effect of nontariff barriers or of tariff exemptions. 16. The scenario, BIN, analyzes the effect of joining the WTO as described for the WTO scenario but assumes that China will impose the actual tariff bindings on grain -105- ANNEX7 submitted in the WTO offer. This would bring the tariff rates on wheat, rice and coarse grains up to 65 percent. Table 6. Import Tariff Equivalents in China BA05 WTO BIN G05 PHI PLO BA20 G20 1992 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2020 2020 Rice -35 0 0 65 2 0 0 0 44 Wheat -13 0 0 65 2 0 0 0 44 Coarse grains 10 10 10 65 2 10 10 10 44 Non grain crops -9 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Livestock 0 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Meat and milk -6 36 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Other food products 48 49 36 36 36 36 36 34 34 Natural resources 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Textiles 62 32 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 Wearing apparel 80 40 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 Light manufactures 39 27 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 Transport industries 58 43 39 39 39 39 39 38 38 Machinery and equipment 26 16 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Heavy manufactures 20 15 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Note: The aggregate BA20 tariff rates differ slightly from the WTO rates due to changes in composition. Source: (GTAP, 1996; WTO, 1994). 17. Technically, grain imports are governed by a tariff rate quota with an above quota rate of 114 percent and a within quota rate of one percent (which however was exempted in 1995). The G05 scenario models this import quota and tracks the tariff equivalent of the quota. The instrument used to fix imports is a uniform source generic and "grain generic" import tariff, which has been modeled specifically for this purpose. The same tariff level will be imposed on the three different types of grain (rice, wheat and coarse grains). The import quota is allowed to reach 5 percent of the total grain use in China in the year 2005 (approx. 26 million tons). This is in accordance with some of the recent political signals (State Council, 1996). As seen in Table 6, this level of self-sufficiency in the year 2005 will require a uniform tariff rate of only 2 percent-far below the WTO bindings. 18. The next two scenarios introduce different assumptions about productivity in grain production. In the high productivity scenario (PHI), it is assumed that the productivity growth in grain production is 1.5 percent annually instead of 1 percent, while the productivity growth rate in PLO is reduced to only 0.5 percent annually. 19. The long-term baseline to the year 2020 assumes that tariff rates will remain at the level implied by the Chinese offer to the WTO. Finally, the scenario G20 imposes the 95 percent self-sufficiency rule upon the long-term baseline. As it appears in Table 6, a 44 percent uniform tariff rate on grains would be needed to reach this target. -106- ANNEX7 Further Results 20. The results focus on the food commodities. Table 7 contains the percentage changes in quantities of production, private consumption, imports and exports for each scenario. 21. As it appears the production of rice, wheat and coarse grains will increase by approximately 30 to 60 percent in the baseline scenario from 1992 to 2005, while the biggest increases in production are seen for livestock and meat and milk. The discrepancy between the growth rates for grains and livestock is even more pronounced for private consumption, indicating that an increasing share of grain production is being used as feed grain in livestock production. Import of all food items, except for rice, will increase in the baseline, while exports generally decline. The high and positive growth rate for wheat exports is somewhat misleading as it takes place from a 1992 base export level close to zero (the total 1992 export of wheat is $5 million). As seen in Table 8, China will remain a net importer of wheat throughout all scenarios. For meat, where the protection level increases significantly over the baseline period (see Table 6), China will manage to increase its exports by slightly more than its imports. However, when protection rates are reduced in the V/TO scenario, this pattern is rapidly reversed. 22. The results for the policy scenarios are reported as end-year changes relative to the baseline scenarios (BAO5 or BA20). WTO accession will have a negative impact on the production of a number of agricultural commodities as resources are drawn out to support a strong expansion of manufactures production, especially textiles and wearing apparel. Consequently, imports of all food commodities in China will increase following WTO accession. Imports of coarse grains goes up by 37 percent more than seen in the baseline, while the import of other food products expands by 273 percent more than seen in BAO5. In line with this development exports of all food items will decline. 23. If grain imports are reduced with the use of the high tariff bindings (BIN), it will primarily effect the production of wheat. On the import side, the strong reductions in imports of grains seen in the BIN scenario spills over and leads to a strong expansion of imports of nongrain crops, livestock, meat and milk and other food products. This "leakage" phenomenon, where restrictions on imports of grains leads to higher imports of other food items, is not present in the productivity scenarios. The moderately higher growth in total factor productivity in the PHI scenario yields higher production levels, lower imports and higher exports across all food commodities in China. The opposite is seen in the low productivity growth scenario (PLO). 24. The long-term projection to the year 2020 (BA20) confirms the tendencies shown by the baseline to the year 2005, except that rice imports will now also increase and the spurious (but very small increase measured in values) growth in wheat exports is reversed to the expected decline in exports. 25. Finally, the 95 percent self-sufficiency policy extended to the year 2020 leads to a high increase in the production of wheat, a small increase in the production of rice and a -107- ANNEX7 decrease in the production of all other food commodities as well as all manufactures and services (not reported). Imports of grains are of course strongly reduced compared with the year 2020 baseline, and the same happens to exports as market prices on grains are driven up by the increased tariff protection. Table 7: Percentage Change in Production, Private Consumption, Imports and Exports of Food Commodities in China BA05 WTO BIN G05 PHI PLO BA20 G20 1992-2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 1992-2020 2020 PRODUCTION Rice 40 0 0 0 4 -3 101 0 Wheat 30 -4 23 -2 5 -12 50 24 Coarse grains 61 3 3 2 12 -6 151 1 Non grain crops 75 0 -1 0 9 -8 195 -1 Livestock 113 10 8 10 21 -2 302 -3 Meat and milk 104 -3 -5 -3 5 -ll 248 -2 Other food products 104 -15 -18 -15 -8 -22 182 -3 PRIVATE CONSUMPTION Rice 7 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 Wheat 17 0 0 0 1 0 34 0 Coarse grains -5 0 0 0 -1 0 -8 0 Non grain crops 96 3 2 3 6 -1 236 0 Livestock 158 5 4 5 12 -2 448 -1 Meat and milk 88 2 2 2 5 -1 213 0 Other food products 143 5 4 5 10 0 257 0 IMPORTS Rice -41 7 -52 2 -2 18 0 -60 Wheat 167 12 -222 -3 -18 44 532 -294 Coarse grains 451 37 -445 262 -41 127 1,687 -656 Non grain crops 167 110 117 110 50 182 806 12 Livestock 679 145 177 144 10 299 3,420 73 Meat and milk 17 59 62 58 44 74 322 5 Other food products 369 273 296 273 250 296 1,346 33 EXPORTS Rice -88 -2 -2 -2 2 -5 -92 0 Wheat 149 -31 -96 -35 58 -93 53 -37 Coarse grains -40 -9 -12 -9 11 -24 -78 -1 Non grain crops -85 -3 -3 -3 3 -7 -88 0 Livestock -93 -1 -2 -1 1 -3 -98 0 Meat and milk 83 -39 -45 -39 -7 -66 70 -5 Other food products -33 -10 -14 -10 -3 -16 -42 -3 26. Turning to quantities of grains, Table 8 shows that our baseline yields a total production of grains of 493 million tons in the year 2005 and net-imports of 23 million tons. This is equivalent to a total grain consumption (direct consumption plus feed grain) per capita of 397 kilo in the year 2005. WTO accession will, as said, lead to a small decrease in domestic grain production and an increase in imports of two million tons. If China introduces the high bindings on grains submitted within the WTO offer, it will have a significant effect-jumping production to 520 million tons and yielding a small exportable grain surplus. However, as described it will reduce output in all other sectors. Fixing imports at five percent of total grain consumption in the year 2005 (approx. 25 million tons) will change production and consumption very little compared with the WTO scenario. This is because the WTO scenario also leads to an import level equal to five percent of domestic consumption. Thus, the only difference between the WTO scenario and the G05 scenario is the composition of grain imports as import restrictions -108- ANNEX7 in the GO5 scenario are modeled as a quota with a uniform grain tariff equivalent (see Table 6). The total factor productivity in primary agriculture turns out to be very important for total grain production. A 0.5 percent change in the annual TFP growth rate in agriculture is equivalent to a change in production of 20-25 million tons of grain (PHI and PLO). 27. The long-term projection to the year 2020 yields a total grain production of 670 million tons and net-imports of 103 million tons. This number can be compared with the projection from World-Watch Institute of 255 million tons in the year 2020 (Brown, 1995). If the year 2020 imports are restricted to five percent of total consumption (app. 38 million tons), the grain production will jump to a total of 716 million tons, but the available grain per capita will decline from 539 kilo/capita in the BA20 scenario to 524 kilo/capita in the G20 scenario. Table 8: Grain Production, Net Import and Consumption in China BA05 WTO BIN GOS PHI PLO BA20 G20 1992 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2020 2020 PRODUCTION (M tons) Rice 127 177 178 177 178 183 173 254 254 Wheat 102 132 129 155 130 138 120 153 177 Coarse grains 114 184 187 187 186 197 177 286 286 Total 342 493 493 520 494 517 470 693 717 NET IMPORTS (M tons) Rice -1 -0.04 -0.01 -0.08 -0.02 -0.06 0.03 0.05 -0.03 Wheat 10 25 26 4 25 24 30 60 32 Coarse grains -9 -2 -1 -4 1 -4 1 11 6 Total -1 23 26 0 26 20 31 71 38 TOTAL USE (kilo/capita) Rice 108 136 137 136 137 140 133 177 177 Wheat 96 121 119 123 119 124 115 148 146 Coarse grains 90 140 143 141 143 149 137 207 204 Total 294 397 398 400 399 413 384 532 527 Source: 1992 levels from State Statistical Bureau, 1996. 28. Finally, the welfare results for the policy scenarios are shown in table 9. Welfare gains are calculated relative to the two baseline scenarios (BAO5 and BA20). China will gain approximately $46 billion from WTO accession, the industrialized countries will gain approximately $23 billion while other ASEAN countries and South Asia will loose a combined $25 billion. If the WTO bindings are introduced, the gain in China from WTO accession will be reduced by 1.4 billion, which is a relatively minor loss. Being a large player on the world grain markets allows China to capture a positive terms of trade gain from restricting grain imports. This counteracts the efficiency loss from higher trade distortions. The 95 percent grain self-sufficiency scenario in the year 2005 (G05) alters the welfare gain very little compared with the WTO scenario as the total grain imports, as -109- ANNEX7 discussed, are almost identical. If this policy is extended to the year 2020, it will lead to a welfare loss of almost $5 billion (relative to the BA20 scenario). Generally, the choice of grain policies in China will have a relatively minor effect on the welfare results for other regions. Table 9: Welfare Changes from Policy Scenarios ($ billion) WTO BIN G05 G20 2005 2005 2005 2020 China 44.6 43.2 44.6 -4.6 Hong Kong & Taiwan 3.0 3.1 3.0 0.4 Korea & Singapore 0.4 0.7 0.4 1.3 Rest of ASEAN -18.9 -18.7 -18.9 0.7 South Asia -6.1 -6.0 -6.1 0.2 Japan 3.7 3.8 3.6 -0.1 Australia & New Zealand 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 NAFTA 7.1 7.4 7.0 1.0 Western Europe 12.0 12.3 12.0 1.4 Rest of World -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 0.1 Total 45.7 45.6 45.5 0.3 -110- ANNEX7 REFERENCES Ahuja, Vinod, & Filmer, D. (1995). Educational Attainment in Developing Countries: New Estimates and Projections Disaggregated by Gender. Background Paper for the World Development Report 1995. The World Bank, Washington, D.C. Anderson, K., Dimaranan, B., Hertel, T. and Martin, W. (1996), "Asia-Pacific food markets and trade in 2005: a global, economy-wide perspective." Discussion Paper No 1474, Center for Economic Policy Research, London. Brown, L.R. (1995). Who will feed China? Wake-up call for a small planet. W.W. Norton & Company, New York. Chem, W. (1997), Survey of food demand elasticities in China? ERS/USDA, (1996). Long Term Projections for International Agriculture to 2005. ERS Staff paper no. 9612. Economic Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C. GTAP, (1996) GTAP Database version 3. 3. Global Trade Analysis Project, Purdue University, Indiana, U.S. Lin, J.Y. (1992). Rural reforms and agricultural growth in China. American Economic Review, 82, 34-51. Hertel, T.W. (1997), Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Huang, J., Rozelle, S., & Rosengrant, M.W. (1995). Supply, demand, and China's future grain deficit. Food, agriculture, and the environment-discussion paper. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington. Kraay, A. (1997), Personal Communication, East-Asia Department, The World Bank. Ma, X. (1996). Grain price variance in China and its international comparison. International Symposium on Food and Agriculture in China: Perspectives and Policy, October 07, 1996. Beijing. Nehru, V. & Dhareshwar, A. (1993). A new database on physical capital stock: Sources, methodology, and results. Revista de Andlisis Econ6mico, 8, 37-59. Rosegrant, M., Agcaoili-Sombila, M. and Perez, N.(1997), Global Food Projections to 2020: Implications for Investment, 2020 Vision Discussion Paper Series No 5, International Food Policy Research Institute. Srinivasan, T.G. (1996), Personal Communication, IECAP, The World Bank. -111- ANNEX7 State Statistical Bureau, (1996). China Statistical Yearbook 1996. China Statistical Publishing House, Beijing, People's Republic of China. USDA (1996), Long Term Projections for International Agriculture to 2005, ERS Staff Paper No 9612, Economic Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Washington DC. Wang, Zhi and Kinsey, J. (1994), Consumption and saving behavior under srict and partial rationing' China Economic Review, 5:83-100. Wen, G.J. (1993). Total factor productivity in China's farming sector: 1952-1989. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 42, 1-41. World Bank, (1995a). Global Economic Prospects and the developing countries. The World Bank, Washington. World Bank, (1995b) World Population Projection 1994-95. The World Bank, Washington, D.C. Wu, Y. & Yang, H. (1995). Growth and productivity in China's agriculture: A review. Working Paper Series. 95/2, Chinese Economy Research Unit, The University of Adelaide, Australia. -112- ANNEX8 ANNEX 8: AGRICULTURAL GROWTH DECOMPOSITION 1. The analysis of China's agricultural growth in the reform era is surprisingly incomplete. The earliest empirical efforts focused on measuring the contribution of the implementation of the household responsibility system (McMillan, Whalley, and Zhu, 1989; Lin, 1992). These studies concluded that most of the increase in productivity in the early reform years arose from institutional innovations. After the exhaustion of the one- time reforms, the logic follows, growth should have decelerated. FACTORS AFFECTING REFORm AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY Stock of Agricultural Research 2. Developed from a very low base in the 1950s, China's research system grew very rapidly after the 1960s. Total agricultural research expenditures in real terms (without adjusting for commercialization revenues) grew continuously until 1985. Between 1985 and 1990, research expenditures leveled off and then fell in real terms. After 1990 growth in expenditures resumed. Because of research and development lags, declines in current expenditures do not have an immediate productivity impact since it is research stock, not the annual investment flow, that affects output (Huffman and Evenson, 1989). Research stocks are estimated using a set of research development lags and timing weights developed by Pardey et al. (1992), and shown in the working paper. China's research stock rose sharply throughout the sample period. Expenditures on crop research follow patterns similar to those for all of agriculture. If adjustments are made for commercialization revenues, the increases in crop research expenditures would rise more modestly, however, the stocks associated with the alternative flow series have only started to diverge. Institutional Change 3. The Government first implemented decollectivization policies in the late 1970s, focusing first on poorer regions of the nation, and then gradually extending the policy to the whole country. By 1980, 14 percent of villages had returned land use rights to farm households, a figure that rapidly increased in the early 1980s, reaching 99 percent of villages in 1984. McMillan, Whalley, and Zhu (1989) and Lin (1992) argue that these reforms were responsible for most of the growth in the early reform era, though these are one-time effects that were exhausted by the mid-1980s. Irrigation Investment 4. China's progress in water control has been another major source of productivity gain (Liu, 1992). Irrigated area increased from less than 18 percent of cultivated area in -113- ANNEX8 1952 to nearly 50 percent in 1992 (ZGTJNJ, 1993). In the initial years construction was based on both locally organized small-scale projects, and publicly financed, large-scale surface projects (Stone, 1993). In the late 1960s and 1970s, tubewell development drove the expansion of irrigated area. Development of the nation's water control infrastructure has continued during the 1980s. More new medium- and larger-scale water control projects were constructed in the mid-1980s, than at any time since the mid-1960s (Stone, 1993). 5. While much of the labor for China's irrigation development was contributed by local residents, public irrigation expenditures financed most of the construction of the national water control network. The investment in irrigation facilities has been by far the largest component of total construction investment in agriculture (Stone, 1993). It is several times greater than investment in agricultural research. Changing agricultural strategies and periods of fiscal control, however, have made public expenditure on water control follow a more variable path. But year-to-year fluctuations in expenditures do not show up immediately in the irrigation stock variable that has grown continually since the early 19705.52 The trend in irrigation stock in the early 1980s differs from the decreases in irrigated area statistics that have led a number of observers to hypothesize that irrigation could not be a source of growth during the reform period (Brown, 1994; Smil, 1993).s3 While irrigated area decreased somewhat in the early 1980s, Stone (1993) argues that part of the decline is due to the abandonment of poorly constructed infrastructure that was unprofitable in terms of time, effort, and financial input. Output and Input Prices 6. Lardy (1983) and Sicular (1991) argue that marginal prices may be most responsible for agricultural growth trends in the post reform era. Rice, wheat, and maize prices fluctuated throughout the reforms, peaking in the 1980, 1988, and 1994, years preceding strong growth in grain output. Fertilizer price and wage trends, however, may offset or amplify the rising and falling output prices. For example, although rice and maize prices rose around 30 percent in real terms between 1990 and 1995, fertilizer prices almost doubled, and wages rose by almost as much as the output prices. Under such 52 The data section explains the aggregation of irrigation expenditures into a stock variable. 2 Irrigation was one of the major factors influencing land and labor utilization in the cropping sector in the 1970s and 1980s (Walker, 1993). Irrigation improvements increase grain yields and in turn leads to the expansion of cash crops (Rozelle, 1994). Irrigation-induced changes in cropping also affect labor use patterns. In some cases irrigation increases labor intensity due to the use of higher value crops and increased complexity of cropping. Irrigation improvements also promote labor savings. Before irrigations facilities were built, farmers spent considerable time carrying water from remote sources. In addition, irrigation made the application of chemical fertilizer more profitable, inducing farmers to apply less organic manures, an operation that can take as much as half the labor of cropping when chemical fertilizers are unavailable (Ye and Rozelle, 1994). -114- ANNEX8 conditions, aggregate output may not have moved as much as one might anticipate given the rising farmgate prices. Environmental Factors 7. Trends in environmental degradation, including erosion and breakdown of the local environment (deforestation and other factors) show that the agricultural land base may be considerable stress. Erosion has increased since the 1970s, although in a somewhat erratic pattern. These factors have been shown to affect output of grain, rice, and other agricultural products in some recent studies (Huang and Rozelle, 1995; 1996; Rozelle, Veeck and Huang, 1997). A DYNAMIC MODEL OF PRODUCTION, LABOR, AND LAND CHOICE 8. In order to distinguish among competing hypotheses on the relative importance of sources of growth, a theoretical/empirical framework is needed which (a) contains all sectors of the crop economy; (b) accounts for key factors determining growth; and (c) is able to measure farmer behavior in China's dynamic rural economy. Analysis on the sources of agricultural output and growth has been undertaken by a number of researchers (McMillan, Whalley, and Zhu, 1989; Lin, 1992; Fan, 1991; Huang and Rozelle, 1996). These previous attempts, however, have not accounted for the major determinants of supply: output and input prices, agricultural research and public investment in irrigation. In China's economy-in-transition, it also is important to model elements that facilitate or constrain producers from adjusting inputs and outputs to their optimal levels in response to exogenous shocks. 9. The adjustment cost approach (Lucas, 1967; Johnson and Quance, 1972) is appropriate for modeling the production behavior of China's farmers, because it accounts for the relationships among multiple agricultural outputs, inputs, and exogenous shifters and allows for the imperfect adjustment of resources in response to changes to external forces. These slow-to-adjust factors, called quasi-fixed inputs, are endogenous variables, their levels and rate of change determined by exogenous factors. Quasi-fixed inputs are also choice variables which affect production in both the short- and the long-run. Adjustment cost theory suggests that firms suffer short-run output loss as they adjust their stocks of quasi-fixed inputs over time. Based on the discussion in the previous section, it is highly plausible that the cost associated with adjustments in sown area and labor may be an important determinant of Chinese production behavior. A theoretical framework for explaining such production behavior is described in appendix B of the working paper. Also, the empirical model and data are discussed in the Working Paper. RESULTS 10. Relatively detailed results are presented in the w1ol-ing paper, which: (a) tests the validity of the adjustment cost framework using a linearized version of the quasi-fixed input equation; (b) discusses the nonlinear estimation system and the coefficients derived; -115- ANNEX8 and (c) reviews the growth decomposition. This annex contains only a summary discussion of growth decomposition. Growth Decomposition 11. Growth decomposition analyses were undertaken for rice, other grain (nonrice grain), cash crop, wheat and maize separately. The results of the former three crops (rice, nonrice grain and cash crop) are based on estimates of the supply response model for South China (Working Paper Table 15a), and those of the later two crops (wheat and maize) are based on the estimates of supply response model for North China (Working Paper Table 15b). Growth of Rice, Nonrice and Cash Crop Output in South China 12. Between 1976 and 1995, the output of rice, other grains, and cash crops actually grew by an annual average of 1.78 percent, 3.58 percent, and 9.27 percent, respectively (Working Paper Tables 17a-17c). To identify which factors have made the biggest contributions to the growth of China's cropping sector, the growth rates of these three crop groups were decomposed into their component parts. Each component was constructed by multiplying the output elasticity of the determinant of output supply by the growth rate of that factor. 13. The results for the decomposition of the rice, nonrice grain and cash crop support the results of Huang and Rozelle (1996) and Huang, Rosegrant and Rozelle (1995). While institutional innovations are important, government investments in research and irrigation contributed more to crop yield growth during the reform period. Improvements in technology contributed the largest share, augmenting the annual growth rate of rice output by 1.38 percent (78 percent of the total growth rate), nonrice grain output by 4.29 percent (20 percent higher than actual growth rate), and cash crop output by 7.26 percent (78 percent of the total growth). These high contributions to growth rates are consistent with recent findings by Lin and Shen (1996) and Fan (1996) that returns to investment in agricultural research have been high. 14. Public investment in irrigation only contributed 0.24 percent per year to the growth rate of total rice during the period 1976-95 (about 14 percent of the total growth rate). Part of the reason may be that the big gains to irrigation had been made previously and during the sample period funds were spent on maintenance or on projects with lower returns. 15. Between 1976 and 1995, HRS implementation was the second most important factor; institutional changes increased the rate of growth of rice output by 0.89 percent per year, nonrice grain output by 1.15 percent (32 percent of total growth), and cash crop output by 2.32 percent (25 percent of total growth). 16. The net impacts of fertilizer and crop price changes were marginal for most crop production for the 1976-95 period. The positive effect on output of the real increases in -116- ANNEX8 crop prices enjoyed during the early 1980s and 1990s has been offset by the more sluggish crop price increases in the late 1980s and the rapidly increasing input price. However, the rapid growth rate of the price of the two quasi-fixed inputs, land and labor, had a negative impact on growth in Southern China. Rising wages also reduced agricultural production growth. 17. Environmental factors influenced the output of nonrice grains and cash crops, reducing their growth by 25 and 15 percent, respectively, between 1976-95. This implies that officials may need to be more concerned about reducing the adverse consequences of environmental stresses, even if their primary goal is food production. Growth of Wheat and Maize Output in North China 18. Growth rates of wheat and maize were double that of rice over the last 20 years. The annual growth rates of wheat and maize are 4.54 percent and 4.43 percent in 1976-95. The sources of their growth are presented in working paper tables 17d and 17e. Technology also has played an important role in the expansion of wheat and maize production. The technological breakthroughs documented by Stone (1993) have been a powerful impetus to the expansion of China's grain production capacity. 19. The positive impacts of government investment and institutional reform policies on wheat production are partially offset by the relative rise in variable input prices, and changes in land and labor prices in the full study period (1976-95) and largely offset by these factors in the post reform period (1984-95). Similar to the case of maize, the relative decline in output price of wheat to input fertilizer price in the late 1980s and early 1990s reduced the wheat production growth. Both wheat and maize output would have risen significantly more if the ratio of output and input prices did not declined in the late 1980s and early 1990s. 20. Environmental factors were more influential on the output of maize, reducing the growth rate by 9 percent between 1976-95. This larger impact should be expected since maize is much more likely to be grown in hilly and more ecological sensitive area, than paddy rice and wheat, which are grown more in the plain areas and on terraces. -117- ANNEX8 REFERENCES Brown, Lester. 1994. "Can China Starve the World, Its Booming Economy is Consuming Global Food Supplies." Washington Post, August 28, 1994. Fan, Shenggen. 1991. "Effects of Technological Change and Institutional Reform on Production Growth in Chinese Agriculture." American Journal of Agricultural Economics (73):266-275. Fan, Shenggen and Philip G. Pardey. 1992. Agricultural Research in China: Its Institutional Development and Impact. International Service for National Agricultural Research: The Hague, Netherlands. Huang, Jikun and Scott Rozelle. 1995. "Environmental Stress and Grain Yields in China," American Journal ofAgricultural Economics 77 (November): in press. . 1996. "Technological Change: Rediscovering the Engine of Productivity Growth in China's Rural Economy," Journal of Development Economics 49 (July 1996):337-369. Huffman, Wallace E. and Robert E. Evenson. 1989. "Supply and Demand Functions for Multiproduct U.S. Cash Grain Farms: Bias Caused by Research and Other Policies." American Journal ofAgricultural Economics 71:761-73. Johnson, G. L. and L. Quance. 1972. The Overproduction Trap in US. Agriculture. Baltimore MD: Johns Hopkins University Press. Lardy, N. 1983. Agriculture in China's Modern Economic Development. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. . 1992. "Rural Reforms and Agricultural Growth in China," American Economic Review 82(1): 34-5 1. Liu, Shaoqiu. 1992. "The Impact of Irrigation on Agricultural Productivity in China," Ph.D. Dissertation, Dept. of Agricultural Economics, University of Philippines at Los Banos. Lucas, Robert E., Jr. 1967. "Adjustment Costs and Theory of Supply." Journal of Political Economics 75(August):321-34. McMillan, J., J. Whalley and L. Zhu. 1989. "The Impact of China's Economic Reforms on Agricultural Productivity Growth," Journal ofPolitical Economy, 97:781-807. Pardey, Phil, R. Lindner, E. Abdurachman, S. Wood, S. Fan, W. Eveleens, B. Zhang, J. Alston. 1992. "The Economic Returns to Indonesian Rice and Soybean Research." Report prepared by the Agency for Agricultural Research and -118- ANNEX8 Development (AARD) and the International Service for National Agricultural Research (ISNAR), November 1992. Sicular, Terry. 1991. "China's Agricultural Policy During the Reform Period," in Joint Economic Committee Congress of the United States, ed., China's Economic Dilemmas in the 1990s: The Problems of Reforms, Modernization and Interdependence, Vol. 1:340-64. Smil, Vaclav, 1993. China's Environmental Crisis: An Inquiry into the Limits of National Development. New York, NY:ME Sharpe. Stone, B. 1993. "Basic Agricultural Technology Under Reform," Chapter in Y.Y. Kueh and Robert F. Ash (eds.) Economic Trends in Chinese Agriculture: The Impact of Post-Mao Reforms. Oxford, England: Clarendon Press. ZGTJNJ. Zhongguo Tongfi Nianjian (China Statistical Year Book). Beijing: China Statistical Press. 1980, 1986-93. -119- STATISTICAL ANNEX Land page 1.1 Cultivated Area, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 ...........................................121 1.2 Total Area Planted to Farm Crops, China, 1984-95 .......................................................122 1.3 Irrigated Area by Region and Province, China, 1982-95 ...............................................123 1.4 Effective, Stable and Actual Irrigated Areas by Region and Province, 1990-95 ...........124 1.5 Paddy Land Area, by Region and Province, China,1979-93 .........................................125 1.6 M ultiple Cropping Index, China, 1984-95 .....................................................................126 1.7 Barren Land Resources by Province ..............................................................................127 1.8 Land Reclamation Area by Province, 1953-1995 ..........................................................128 1.9 Soil and W ater Erosion Control, 1973-1995 ..................................................................134 1.10 Flood Prevention M easures, 1973-1995 ........................................................................135 1.11 Salinity C ontrol, 1973-1995 ..........................................................................................136 Crop Area 2.1 Total Cereal Area, by Region and Province, China 1979-95 .........................................137 2.2 Wheat, Area, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 ................................................138 2.2a Winter Wheat Area, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 ......................................139 2.2b Spring Wheat Area by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 ........................................140 2.3 Total Rice Area, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 ...........................................141 2.3a Northern Rice Area, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 .....................................142 2.3b Early Rice Area, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 ..........................................143 2.3c Intermediate - Single Crop Late Rice Area, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 .144 2.3d Double Crop Late Rice Area, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 ......................145 2.4 Corn Area, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 ...................................................146 2.5 Sorghum Crop Areas, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 ..................................147 2.6 Millet Crop Areas, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 .......................................148 2.7 Area of "Other" Grains and Pulses, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 ............149 2.8 Soybean Area by Region and Provi nce, China 1979-95 ...............................................150 2.9 Tuber Area, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 ........................................... ......151 2.10 Area in Fruit Orchards, by Region and Province, China, 1984-95..................................152 2.11 Vegetable and Melon Area, by Region and Province, 1984-95 .....................................153 2.12 Oilseed Crop Area, by Province, 1990-95 .....................................................................154 Crop Production 3.1 Cereal Production, by Region and Province, 1979-95 ...................................................155 3.2 Wheat Production, by Region and Province, 1979-95 ...................................................156 3.2a Production of Winter Wheat by Region and Province, 1990-95 ...................................157 3.2b Production of Spring Wheat by Region and Province, China, 1990-1995 ....................158 3.3 Rice Production, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 ..........................................159 -120- 3.3a Northern Rice Production, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 ...........................160 3.3b Early Rice Production, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 .................................161 3.3c Intermediate - Single Crop Late Rice Production, by Region and Province, 1979-95 .. 162 3.3d Double Crop Late Rice Production, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 ............ 163 3.4 Corn Production, by Region and Province, 1979-95 ..................................................... 164 3.5 Sorghum Production, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 ................................... 165 3.6 Millet Production, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 .........................................166 3.7 Production of "Other" Grains and Pulses, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 ... 167 3.8 Soybean Production by Region and Prvince, China, 1979-95 ...................................... 168 3.9 Tuber Production, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 ....................................... 169 3.10 Fruit Production, by Province and Region, China, 1984-95 ......................................... 170 3.11 Oilseed Crop Production, by Province, 1990-1995 ....................................................... 171 Fertilizers 4.1 Nitrogen Fertilizer Application/Consumption, 1984-94 ................................................ 172 4.2 Phosphate Fertilizer Application/Consumption, 1984-94 ............................................. 173 4.3 Potash Fertilizer Application/Consumption, 1984-94 ................................................... 174 4.4 Compound Fertilizer Application/Consumption, 1984-94 ............................................. 175 4.5 China: Output of Chemical Fertilizers .......................................................................... 176 4.6 China: Fertilizer Im ports ...............................................................................................177 Grain Procurement and Prices 5.1 Total and State Grain Procurements, 1979-95 ............................................................... 178 5.2 International and Domestic Grain Prices 1992-96 ......................................................... 179 Trade 6.1 Cereal Imports and Exports, 1987-95 ............................................................................ 180 6.2 China - Trade in Food Commodities, 1987-1996 ..........................................................181 Investments 7.1 State Investment in Agricultural Research .................................................................... 182 7.2 State Investments in Water Conservancy and Expanded Irrigated Area ....................... 183 7.3 Incremental State Grain Storage Capacity .....................................................................184 Ports and Rail 8.1 C oastal Port B erths ........................................................................................................ 185 8.2 Major Imports and Exports (volume) ............................................................................ 185 8.3a Grain Throughput of Major Ports, 1994 ........................................................................ 186 8.3b Grain Throughput of Major Ports, 1995 ........................................................................ 186 8.4 G rain Traffic by Port Type ............................................................................................ 187 8.5 R ail T rafIic .................................................................................................................... 188 Table Al.I: Cultivated Area, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 Region/province 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1,000 hectares 11rteas 16, 16.530 o0 16A 16.518 1652 16515 16 1 1I2ll 16.264 1 16.233 16.25 16.289 16.281 16.275 16338 Heilongiang 8,698 8,726 8,727 8,723 8,783 8,908 8,930 8,869 8,859 8,834 8,834 8,827 8,852 8,905 8,913 8,909 8,995 Liaoning 3,778 3,760 3,699 3,665 3,665 3,625 3,586 3,529 3,492 3,479 3,479 3,470 3,460 3,452 3,430 3,411 3,390 Jiln 4,060 4,044 4,075 4,049 4,070 4,039 3,999 3,973 3,961 3,951 3,951 3,936 3,938 3,932 3,938 3,955 3,953 North! 29.686 29,611 29.562 29.492 29.374 29.285 28.930 28,737 28,612 28.526 28.526 28.461 28.3 28.237 28.127 27.979 27.883 Beijing 426 426 424 424 423 422 421 419 418 416 416 414 411 409 406 402 400 Tianjin 468 464 462 461 457 454 447 441 438 433 433 432 432 430 429 427 426 Hebei 6,650 6,615 6,641 6,642 6,621 6,629 6,603 6,592 6,577 6,567 6,567 6,560 6,550 6,544 6,536 6,524 6,517 Shanxi 3,906 3,921 3,910 3,879 3,857 3,853 3,761 3,732 3,719 3,707 3,707 3,702 3,688 3,681 3,669 3,657 3,645 Henan 7,136 7,128 7,106 7,109 7,079 7,079 7,033 6,999 6,973 6,956 6,956 6,944 6,920 6,887 6,870 6.830 6,806 Shaanxi 3,845 3,816 3,782 3,775 3,749 3,686 3,627 3,590 3,563 3,551 3,551 3,541 3,521 3,488 3,458 3,421 3,393 Shandong 7,255 7,241 7,237 7,202 7,188 7,162 7,038 6,964 6,924 6,896 6,896 6,868 6,834 6,798 6,759 6,718 6,696 Nothwl 13699 13471 13364 13o308 1L. 13.069 12864 I.27 .L242 12.787 12786 12.829 122977 13.07 13.15 13.306 13,499 Nei Monggol 5,364 5,252 5,180 3.111 5,089 5,006 4,930 4,895 4,851 4,871 4,871 4,912 5,005 5,082 5,172 5,310 5,491 Gansu 3,543 3.554 3,544 3,564 3,552 3,528 3,491 3,480 3,479 3,476 3,475 3,477 3,479 3,482 3,481 3,481 3,483 Qinghai 577 587 587 582 577 572 565 563 565 568 568 572 579 580 581 585 590 Ningxia 899 896 884 864 838 810 795 791 791 796 796 795 798 801 803 806 807 Xinjiang 3,316 3,182 3,169 3,187 3,158 3.153 3,083 3,050 3,061 3,076 3,076 3,073 3,116 3,134 3,120 3,124 3,128 East 11271 11264 11275 11240 M9 11202 11143 1192 11053 11014 11015 10990 10940 10865 10775 10696 10647.2 Shanghai 355 354 353 352 350 346 340 333 331 327 327 324 321 318 302 294 290 Jiangsu 4,640 4,641 4,649 4,632 4,642 4,621 4,604 4,591 4,580 4,569 4,569 4,562 4.550 4,522 4,495 4,464 4,448 Zhejiang 1,829 1,823 1,821 1,818 1,817 1,806 1,777 1,754 1,745 1,736 1,737 1,731 1,715 1,691 1,661 1,635 1,618 Anhui 4,447 4,446 4,452 4,438 4,440 4,429 4,422 4,414 4,397 4,382 4,382 4,373 4,354 4.334 4,317 4,303 4,291 Central 9.734 9.697 9.679 9.521 9.48, 9.394 9.296 9.240 9.198 9.13 9.183 9.161 9.113 9.055 $192 8.949 8.916 Jiangxi 2,533 2,533 2,531 2,387 2,387 2,379 2,369 2,364 2,362 2,359 2,359 2,355 2,344 2,337 2,326 2,315 2,308 Hubei 3,757 3,739 3,725 3,717 3,699 3,644 3,585 3,545 3,518 3,498 3,498 3,487 3,459 3,422 3,393 3,376 3,358 Hunan 3,444 3,425 3,423 3,417 3,397 3,371 3,342 3,331 3,318 3,326 3,326 3,319 3,310 3,296 3,273 3,258 3,250 South 7.151 7.125 7.110 7.074 i041 6.959 6.859 6.808 6.773 6.752 6.759 6.775 6.805 6.720 6.615 6.566 6.565 Guangdong 3,224 3,197 3,182 3,159 3,143 3,105 3,035 2,994 2,964 2,510 2,519 2,525 2,520 2,444 2,357 2,325 2,317 Guangxi 2,630 2,637 2,639 2,631 2,613 2,574 2,563 2,564 2,565 2,569 2,569 2,578 2,613 2,611 2,607 2,602 2,614 Fujian 1,297 1,291 1,289 1,284 1,285 1,280 1,261 1,250 1,244 1,241 1,239 1,238 1,235 1,229 1,219 1,210 1,204 Hainan na na na na na na na na na 432 432 434 437 436 432 429 429 Southwest 11,525 11.57 11,546 114 1 11.48 112373 11,241 11,202 112196 11.195 11194 11o207 11,215 11.18 11s156 11.134 11_122 Sichuan 6,617 6,604 6,580 6,565 6,525 6.452 6,367 6,341 6,326 6,315 6,315 6,307 6,281 6,256 6,232 6,214 6,190 Guizhou 1,894 1,904 1,903 1,903 1,896 1,894 1,873 1,863 1,857 1,855 1,855 1,854 1,853 1,849 1,845 1,841 1,840 Yunnan 2,785 2,838 2,838 2,845 2,833 2,802 2,777 2,776 2,791 2,803 2,803 2,823 2,858 2,858 2,855 2,857 2,871 Xizang 229 229 225 228 229 225 224 222 222 222 221 223 223 224 224 222 222 Sum of above 99602 99,173 99.037 98,6.3 98362 97,854 96.848 96.229 95,891 95,721 95.72 95.656 95,656 95.432 95.103 94.905 94,971 SSB total 99,498 99,305 99,038 98,606 98,362 97,854 96,846 96,230 95,890 95,720 95,670 95,670 95,654 95,426 95,101 94,907 94,971 Sources China Statistical Yearbook, various issues ТеЫе А11: Tota1 Апа Рlвоtед to Farm Crops, China, 198493 Region/ргоипьс 19В4 1985 I986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1997 1994 1995 1,000 hectares he s 16•439 163 16•161 16.173 13.8'11 1Ы_b9 161_18 16_,319 16уб1 16.328 I6•354 16.331 Heilongliang 8,622 В,582 8,463 8,515 8,233 6,453 6,559 6,615 8,479 8,647 В,670 8,647 L�eOmng 3,737 Э,706 Э,Ьб4 3,621 3,603 3,594 Э,Ы9 3,6J8 3,63) Э,630 3,624 1,624 1дт 4,080 4,064 4,037 4,037 4,035 4.021 4,040 4,066 4.049 4,051 4,060 4,060 L4slh ��9 �! 0`8 !.! 4� !.! <� !J. Ь` 4!„? 13�9 41�6_38 41.370 41у09 �.�2 4�..2J3 Be�ling 633 618 605 598 595 589 590 590 585 56i 5i1 55Э Tim1m 623 596 582 574 577 573 573 581 574 566 555 573 НеЬа 8,708 8,657 8,77Э 8,690 8,787 В,765 8,787 8,815 8,571 8,677 8.649 8,720 Shanкi 4,165 3,978 Э,952 3,992 3,999 4,005 4,016 3,971 3,982 3,999 4,007 3,896 Нтап 11,4Э3 11,685 11,820 11,953 I1,970 11,999 11,890 12,002 11,936 12,068 12,088 12,137 Sheanxi 4,705 4.663 4.678 4.795 4,777 4,834 4,860 4,882 4,В64 4.790 4,806 4,497 Shandong 10,772 10,861 11,04Э 10,688 10,958 10,799 10,883 10,997 10,838 10,744 l0,876 10,837 LY4Sf�1 SЗ�� 1�.а�? 240 12.3I3 L,?4 J.ë 4`7 1.�.Zi Абi3 I�4 �� LL@ L<28 Ne� Mongol 4,630 4,549 4,556 4,474 4,559 4,576 4,722 4,76В 4,654 4,868 4,925 5,079 Gansu 3,466 3,490 3,502 Э,579 3,567 Э,577 Э,Ь11 3,587 3,662 3,639 Э,709 3,77Э Qmghai 507 501 506 508 514 5Э2 545 54Э 547 54В 562 569 Nmgxia 837 828 624 634 877 877 8В9 901 895 905 9l8 456 Xmlimg 2,878 2,847 2,650 2,920 2,940 2,935 2,980 Э,ОЭЬ 3,068 2,99Э 2,994 Э,050 1 Eesr z1.s1a 21.991 21.718 21.916 300 21.573 31.589 29 21.267 20.781 20_039 20у_28 -� Shangha� 740 695 679 670 64В ЬЭЬ 631 626 602 558 537 542 N Jiалgsu 8,584 В,556 8,514 В,500 8,385 8,384 8,259 8,092 8,235 8,032 7,856 7,909 N 1 Zhqiang 4,527 4,552 4,362 4,374 4,298 4,31Э 4,365 4,380 4,275 Э,926 Э,602 3,923 Anhw 7,967 8,186 8,163 8,372 8,169 8,239 8,314 B,I96 8,155 8,265 8,264 В,354 ntr 20.180 20.228 30.330 20.293 20.121 20.563 21•071 �{9S 20.993 20501 20_,665 21�203 liслgxi 5,457 5,4I9 5,439 5,4ВЗ 5,396 5,555 5,75В 5,830 5,845 5,72I 5,753 5,951 НиЬа 7,388 7,332 7,774 7,3Э7 7,229 7,261 7,361 7.424 7.187 7,126 7,161 7.414 Нипап 7,639 7,477 7,537 7.475 7,496 7,749 7,952 8,040 7.961 7,654 7,7Э1 7,840 South 13у36 12.877 13.060 13.286 13.t33 З9И 14J80 А4•642 4610 14.148 14.366 1/�_733 Guangdong 6,258 6,098 6,11I 6,1Э1 5,376 5,54В 5,672 5,659 5,487 5,146 5,205 5,Э04 Guangx� 4,511 4,443 4,548 4,611 4,735 4,950 5,141 5,Э27 5,Э74 5,385 5,516 5,746 Fulian 2,Э87 2,Э36 2,401 2,544 2,589 2,656 2,746 2,827 2,881 2,7Э3 2,801 2,835 Натап 733 790 821 829 868 В84 844 870 aFfWl�i .L 9, 63 L9..� 19 �L Ji,�3 ER�a !•Оа7� � aL�BL 21.621 21,756 22у_20 Sкhuan 11.764 11.771 11.853 11.946 12.097 12.296 12.475 12.740 12.752 12,664 12.636 12,839 GштЬои 2,992 Э,021 Э,134 3,246 3,332 3,474 3,579 Э,808 Э,906 3,972 4,056 4,203 Уиппеп 3.996 4.004 4Д24 4.077 4.226 4.360 4,492 4.600 4,708 4,770 4,848 4959 Xizang 21Э 210 21I 210 210 212 214 216 215 215 216 219 $итоГвЬоуе 141,219 11Э•727 144•207 141•956 144.869 J46,331 11 8.364 49386 900Е ]4j�¢� 1.48,�t0 149,879 S$B Tola1 144,221 143,626 144,204 144,956 144,ВЬ9 146,554 148,ЭЬ2 149,586 149,007 147,741 148,241 149,879 Source Сhиа Slausuul Yearbook, van0ua �ssues Table AI.3: Irrigated Area by Region and Province, China, 1932-95 Region/province 1982 1983 1994 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1,000 hectares Northeast U30 LM 2.030 2.100 2.163 2.298 2.278 2J73 3.020 3.130 3.212 3.243 3.109 3.203 Heilongpang 674 631 623 680 720 766 740 777 1,079 1,118 1,157 1,164 1,015 1,095 Liaoning 723 676 696 724 731 769 763 760 1,059 1,089 1,140 1,170 1,184 1,204 Jilin 733 716 711 696 717 753 775 836 882 923 915 909 910 904 North 14,368 14,371 11,01 14,274 14,291 14,353 14,328 14,514 14,952 15,196 1538 15,581 15.70 15.96 Beijing 339 343 343 338 337 338 338 338 335 324 307 315 309 323 Tianjin 374 365 361 349 341 341 343 342 346 347 347 348 349 355 Hebei 3,561 3,577 3,585 3,573 3,554 3,606 3,629 3,682 3,759 3,840 3,886 3,931 3,963 4,040 Shanxi 1,100 1.101 1,103 1.079 1,054 1,078 1,098 1,114 1,135 1,149 1,162 1,175 1,188 1,202 Henm 3,265 3,210 3,279 3,190 3,213 3.250 3,359 3,435 3,550 3,701 3,780 3,868 3,931 4,044 Shaanxi 1,247 1,239 1,179 1,179 1,243 1,259 1,238 1,247 1,263 1,283 1,303 1,320 1,326 1.340 Shandong 4,482 4,536 4,555 4,W 4,547 4,481 4,323 4,356 4,464 4,552 4,597 4,624 4,642 4,663 Northwest 4.875 4.892 4.044 4.799 4.950 5.031 5.102 5.146 5.397 5.490 5,929 5,913 5.922 5,904 Nei Monggol 1,027 1,020 159 965 1,006 1,038 1,079 1,153 1,252 1,323 1,696 1,751 1,755 1,776 Gansu 947 846 947 831 826 834 839 941 955 867 885 900 914 893 Qinghai 159 157 159 160 164 165 163 167 172 175 175 177 177 177 Ningxia 232 233 236 238 246 253 256 258 260 265 270 275 277 278 Xinjiang 2,610 2,636 2.643 2,605 2,708 2,741 2,765 2,727 2,858 2,850 2,803 2,810 2,799 2,780 Fast 7.662 7.594 7.678 7.557 7.454 7.499 7.520 7.636 8.40t 8.3" 9.404 SJ90 8 396 8,473 Shanghai 347 346 342 335 327 327 324 320 320 319 314 299 291 288 M.) Jiangsu 3,476 3,495 3,596 3,588 3,538 3,318 3,497 3,531 3,971 3,850 3,857 3,824 3,799 3,833 W Zhejiang 1,525 1,525 1,529 1,528 1,497 1,496 1,484 1,481 1,477 1,476 1,464 1.449 1,428 1,419 Anhui 2.314 2,228 2.161 2,106 2,092 2,157 2,215 2,304 2,633 2,719 2,769 2,818 2.878 2,934 Central 6J32 6.910 6.897 6,872 6A39 6,697 6.792 6.697 6.837 6.792 6.976 6.819 6.735 6.734 Jiangxi 1,589 1,805 1,812 1,812 1,814 1,821 1,817 1,826 1,837 1,848 1,855 1,864 1,817 1,880 Hubei 2,372 2.332 2,309 2,293 2,253 2,211 2,308 2,197 2,324 2,331 2,356 2,279 2,239 2,174 Hunan 2,371 2,773 2,776 2,767 2,772 2,665 2,667 2,674 2,676 2,613 2665 2,676 2,679 2,680 SGUlh 4.267 4.267 4.167 4,073 4.177 Am 3,943 4.074 4.362 4.327 4.242 4.117 4,066 4,078 Guangdong 2,041 2,044 1,980 1,938 1,913 1,855 1,681 1,694 1,795 1,683 1.601 1,500 1,466 1,488 Guangxi 1,406 1,404 1,383 1,349 1,350 1,374 1,338 1,330 1,491 1,502 1,514 1,497 1,489 1,472 Fujian 813 819 804 787 914 922 924 911 934 940 944 945 938 937 Hainan 139 142 202 183 175 173 181 southwest 4.543 4.586 4.461 4,359 4.351 Q35 4.416 4.475 4.536 4.534 4.647 4.667 4.824 4.923 Sichuan 3,044 3,053 2,972 2,782 2,730 2,745 2,762 2.785 2,806 2,927 2,843 2,858 2,874 2,899 Guizhou 438 453 415 479 532 538 545 549 550 512 617 597 607 612 Yunnan 924 959 962 965 967 973 989 1,020 1,054 1,082 1,105 1,130 1,181 1,250 Xizang 137 121 112 133 122 129 120 121 126 113 82 82 162 162 Sam of abov 44.177 44.64 43,632 44.0 44.2 ".403 44J79 44.91 47.40 47.82 48,592 48.73 43.76 49,291 SSB total 44,177 44,644 44,453 44036 44,226 44,403 44,376 44,917 47,403 47,922 48,590 48,728 48,759 49,281 Source China Statistical Yearbook, vanous issues ТвЫе А1.4: EПectivc, 51аЫе and Ае1иа1 lпigatcd Агеае Ьу Regioд апд Provinee, 1990- 1995 Dьчlдnсд IrriNated Агев Ьу Ргоьип ('U011 М) W Тои1 Eflmrve IгпуЫе Апв Ьу Provmce ('IXN1 hs) lЬ! 5иА1е 1гг{yted Агев Ьу Ргоvиге ('1И1П ha) Actual ЕГГпwе lrriqвlcd Аrcв Ьу Ргоvтп ('1ММ1 hв) Rcg�onlРго�тсе 199П 1991 1'i12 1993 1994 1993 19911 1991 I992 1993 1994 1993 199П 17)1 17)2 17)З 1974 1993 197U 1991 1992 1193 1994 1'1`1$ о ь s7.iTA 3�3iS(. 3=9L � 3i27 3.�i � 3i48 3�1L 1, 995 ëi1s�5 21i6 �1U 177 2�7J9 ]�,1L. �`1 2i)4 � 7� 12 Fledanglиng 1,1211 1,159 1,171 1,1117 1,1179 1,11А 1,137 1,169 1,П13 $117 5118 5119 49G 313 777 851 884 Я45 751 Иааптg 1.197 1.251 1.280 1.297 1.1159 111А9 1,14П 1.17П 1.1R4 9П7 937 977 111117 1р211 Я4L Я911 972 924 91А hhn 9S0 946 939 942 Я89 923 913 9П9 910 381 599 G1N1 WN1 6114 7111 7711 713 6G3 G43 N°бh L�� LLë? L� L� L�лЫ LaLË IiëJ.t JiS` L7�Ч LП7�3 IПд1= 11.п66 11 73 11.41� 12�Ч 13b72 13.91иэ 1ЭА76 17у_74 Ведиg 771 367 Э611 362 Э29 326 Э19 315 323 242 241 2дб 230 247 31М) Э117 3113 ЗП2 2R9 ТйиJт 374 773 376 Э77 34G 348 346 347 319 213 221 223 226 22R 31Ч1 7112 э114 31111 71Ч1 НеЬт 4.1132 4.127 4,171 о 4,247 7.773 Э,Я44 7.9П2 3.948 3.970 2.5G4 2,730 2.784 2.828 2,А77 7.5П7 7,567 3.G17 3.fil.7 7(7) SМпь1 1.171 1.187 1.195 1.2П8 1.I3H 1.153 1.167 1.173 1.188 617 G13 629 G38 G42 9R9 1.П19 1 031 1.039 1(173 непдп з,71ю з,яов з,вча 3,96з з,33П З,ы7 з,7яо З,ябА з,931 г,ы1 2,879 2,9аз з�ю4 з,пб z,3z6 7,г33 з,з9в э,зг9 7,4гг $Мапя 1,7М 1.J26 1,341 1,354 1,263 1.287 1}113 1,32П 1,326 805 816 АЗЭ AS1 А52 11К,З 1.1119 1,126 1.13fi 1.1д7 Shandong 4,В511 4,943 3011 3,П52 4,463 4,352 4,597 4,624 4,Ы2 3,221 Эа$2 3,1ПG 7,476 3,434 З,Яб1 4,117 4,127 1,1U2 4,(М)3 Norlhnesf j.�G j�6,(aS, j,�j 7.825 S� � 6i 6�J6_( 2¢�П 7.А73 1�i� 98Э di7 1.221 5i13 5.279 $.474 5:`60 5fi46 Nei Mongol 1,911 1,9AG 2,П53 2,077 1,540 1,Ы2 1,G9G 1,731 1,735 937 981 1,П14 1,077 1,1131 1,317 1,363 1,47Э 1,5П7 1,327 Gartsu 1,П14 1,(141 1,1162 1,1185 910 921 91Н 9G6 988 746 753 78(1 772 Al1R 7911 Я111 R24 817 AG1 QиBna� Згг ЗзП ззs 34г z17 zss z32 гзе z4n и3 ио 1аг иг 144 16а 1лn 191 19г ггю Ни�,а зп ЗяП з91 з96 зи зzо зz9 Ззб Зэв zь9 ns гнб г99 зn1 г9г г9з z9э з1г зп Xmglmng Э,643 7,А7В 3.9113 3,929 2,В3в 2,840 2.846 2.871 2.8R1 1,77П 1.7Ы 1.761 1.767 1918 2.G49 2.577 2,G93 2.61)9 2,743 ! пь � А_5�8 � � � л�б7 $�3 1� �1.6 g079 S„9f/i 6� 6��73 6J� � 7i Z.LA6 7уМ12 7iG4 � $hanghai 31А 314 ЭП2 291 3211 718 J11 302 291 7П7 7П3 267 29G 29(1 2А4 291 293 2А2 2ГrЯ N lипgьи Э,942 3,933 3,946 Э,933 Э,971 3,BS0 Э,837 3,824 З,А23 2,903 2,7G1 2,Н27 2,793 2,78А 3,2114 7,218 3,279 3,2GG 3,292 1� zne�uиR 1,336 1s41 1,3гз 1,49в 1.4n 1,476 1 абд 1.а49 1.42А 1,п17 т8 1.то 1,а18 1 onn lдзв 1,л7 1.4z6 1A1z 1J83 � Anhm 2.729 2.777 2,А39 2,А96 2.633 2.719 2.769 2,A1R 2.R71 1.833 1.BG1 1,928 1.979 2.112А 2079 2.1W 2.1RR 21W2 2.411 tr 1 6iA2 6i3 Ь� � � 6А, 93 буА9Э (i8`А � iyб9 5,у)3 S,sSj� i.487 {�97� � Ь>ZO R,_3�Q бу113 6i43 1mng�u 1,875 1.А84 1.894 1.9П1 1.8Э7 1 84В 1.855 1 8W 1,671 1.36G 1.7R4 1,4111 1.421 1,44] 1,77П 1.759 1.7А0 1.792 1,А1К1 них� т,41ю z,з7г z,зб7 г,звз г,зб7 z,765 2.зs7 2,з4А г,Заь 1,9Ы 1,в7Э 1,939 1,в92 1,97о 2,1ю7 г,Пм 1,991 1,гr� 1,я7z Нитл 2.7113 2,707 2.71Ч 2.7ПА 2.676 2.G811 2,ЬЯ1 2.676 2,Ы9 2.Ч1 2.136 2,1W 2,1L9 2.179 2,477 2,317 2.54R 2.517 2.472 $1lР11! г{i� � � lу1Тк di2 4 а9 �А1 �+Z.� 4 Ь, �Ь � ��S � ?�7_ З_д 18 4,�L i 1, 96 � 4aL �U6 Guangdang 2,7>G 2,377 2,JG6 2,771 2.161 2.I67 2,128 2.1181 2,П16 1.ЬП2 1.G113 1.393 1.574 1.532 1.953 1.7116 1.9117 1 877 1.845 Guдng<i 1.521 1,521 1.501 1.493 1.5П9 1.517 1.314 1.497 1,4R8 1.2П9 1.184 1.199 1.178 1,1711 1.233 1.274 1.24$ 1.271 1,224 Fщип 94А 932 9Ь2 937 973 940 944 943 978 62А 672 67G 626 62А ВЬЗ 869 RG2 844 R57 Ндиап 234 276 237 2Э5 279 273 27S 236 234 17J 1GH 1G9 1Ь9 168 1А2 1R6 194 1R7 194 sоиlИисл( 4�бэ 4izs 4�,s 4,9зб 4i � � 1.nз Я�11 � � � � �,1� з,_,�AS э s з Rn з � � � � $иhиап г.вs1 г.еба z.вм 2.91ц z,нпб г,Ах7 г.84з 2.RSa z,e74 1,вб7 1,882 1,в88 1,в93 1,9Пз 2,417 г,4ы1 z.адП г.44п г,343 GиЬЬои 367 3RG 597 L119 550 367 5А3 396 6U7 472 4А1 5111 S1)7 313 414 47П 442 454 464 ииппап 1,Ню 1,1Э4 1,1ы 1,2и 1,ns4 1,119z 1,1os 1,1зо 1,181 66s ь79 ь96 71п 77s 9ss 99s rn 1,1Ч13 1�156 Tbct 1зs 1за 2119 209 ро 133 t3a 2(19 гП9 П П n SитоГвlюvе п сl.лsз t.2.462 �,т.чА1 53.221 о 18.3А9 4А.992 49АЬ4 19.1{Э9 19.978 0 ��61 з4угп зiJ75 35b3I зб.14п n 41уз7 4гмА4 4Э_411 л2.914 43ЫI п SSBToШ1 51,А43 52,462 S2,9A1 53,221 48,789 4В,952 49,464 49,А4П 49,978 Э4,ЗЫ 74,12(1 33,773 33,ЬЭ1 36,11(1 41,477 42,Ве4 41,5111 42,9I4 4Э,611 Иl Sоигсе М�тьцу оГ Wntп Rcюurces, Аlтапьс оГQ�тв Watcr Rсюигссь, vиоиь yean Ш/ 1mgoбc дпг includcs Ипд wiйи йе deaign вгеа йо1 тду not necessanly Ье lтgдихl дие b lack оГ sUUetuлs -125- Table AI.5: Paddy Land Area, by Region and Province, China, 1979-93 Region/province 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1,000 hectares Northeas 1.477 1.480 1.546 1.637 1.732 1.797 1.703 1.648 1.763 Heilongjiang 578 564 609 681 756 791 781 770 869 Liaoning 533 541 542 537 543 551 488 461 469 Jilin 366 375 395 419 433 455 434 417 425 North 881 870 907 958 Im LQk7 257 2H 987 Beijing 36 34 32 33 34 30 27 24 24 Tianjin 36 40 43 44 53 53 45 40 49 Hebei 131 132 137 140 148 147 127 122 127 Shanxi 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 Henan 377 373 393 398 427 441 432 444 447 Shaanxi 166 167 169 172 173 175 178 176 176 Shandong 125 114 123 160 157 151 139 143 157 Northwest 284 299 m 340 349 349 m 307 341 Nei Monggol 28 36 51 76 87 95 74 65 84 Gansu 7 6 7 8 8 8 10 10 9 Qinghai Ningxia 176 177 179 175 175 169 175 174 171 Xinjiang 73 80 81 81 79 77 63 58 77 EP9 6.216 6.219 6.272 6-366 6.447 6.427 6.202 6.124 6.126 Shanghai 297 293 289 285 284 280 264 258 254 Jiangsu 2,770 2,768 2,776 2,804 2,841 2,837 2,711 2,658 2,670 Zhejiang 1,419 1,414 1,423 1,429 1,424 1,405 1,378 1,363 1,345 Anhui 1,730 1,744 1,784 1,848 1,898 1,905 1,849 1,845 1,858 Centm 6.469 6.474 fiAL8 6.497 fiau fi" 6.370 6.324 6.290 Jiangxi 2,002 1,999 1,997 1,993 1,988 1,978 1,963 1,949 1,947 Hubei 1,845 1,838 1,858 1,872 1,869 1,845 1,816 1,805 1,780 Hunan 2,622 2,637 2,633 2,632 2,631 2,611 2,591 2,570 2,563 South 4.785 4750 4754 4.739 4710 4629 4.547 4AU 4460 Guangdong 2,181 1,901 1,910 1,900 1,875 1,808 1,744 1,713 1,699 Guangxi 1,598 1,590 1,587 1,585 1,583 1,573 1,567 1,555 1,540 Fujian 1,006 1,003 1,001 999 997 993 985 977 973 Hainan na 256 256 255 255 255 251 249 248 Southwes 4.992 4m 4.981 4.983 4.980 4.954 4.927 4.909 1" Sichuan 3,227 3,223 3,222 3,223 3,217 3,204 3,186 3,175 3,156 Guizhou 780 780 779 779 777 774 771 770 768 Yunnan 984 982 979 980 980 975 969 963 959 Xizang I I 1 1 6 1 1 1 1 Sum of above 25,104 25,078 25,266 25,520 25,708 25,597 25,028 24,763 24,851 SSB total 25104 25078 25266 25519 25707 25597 25025 24,763 24,851 Source: China Statistical Yearbook, various issues -126- Table AL6: Multiple Cropping Index, China, 1984-95 Region/provnce 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Northeas 99 9 98 96 9 9- 100 100 101 101 Heilongpang 97 % 95 96 93 96 97 97 95 97 97 96 Liaoing 103 103 104 104 104 103 104 105 105 106 106 107 Jilm 101 102 102 102 102 102 103 103 103 103 103 103 North 138 139 J40 141 142 142 144 JA6 145 145 146 145 Beijing 131 131 133 132 134 133 134 135 131 133 133 134 Tianjim 108 106 106 107 108 108 108 108 108 109 110 107 Hebei 137 133 132 131 133 132 133 134 133 132 130 134 Shanxi 128 129 130 135 135 136 137 139 140 139 140 133 Henan 162 166 169 171 172 173 171 173 173 176 177 178 Shaanxm 128 95 96 97 97 98 99 99 100 98 99 99 Shandong 150 147 144 143 143 142 143 144 143 139 137 138 1ortirea 2 21 2 23 24 26 22 100 102 101 103 195 Nei Mongol 98 100 101 103 103 103 104 103 105 105 107 108 Gansu 92 92 93 92 94 94 96 95 96 94 93 92 Qmnghai 91 92 93 95 % 95 97 97 98 96 96 98 Nigxia 89 89 90 90 91 94 95 94 94 94 96 96 Xnjiang 103 104 104 105 110 110 112 113 112 113 114 118 East 194 5 12 121 12-3 194 122 122 189 186 J82 Shanghai 251 256 249 251 248 248 253 255 253 236 233 242 Jiangsu 186 186 185 186 184 184 181 178 182 179 176 178 Zhejiang 214 204 204 202 198 195 195 195 189 185 183 187 Anhui 180 185 185 190 186 188 190 188 188 191 192 195 entral 21 202 219 l 212 212 227 230 32 1 221 2l iangxi 227 224 226 225 225 233 240 243 242 234 237 241 Hubei 229 229 230 232 229 235 245 249 250 246 249 258 Hunan 203 205 208 209 207 208 211 215 210 210 213 221 &nh L84 181 188 121 200 21 21 216 Mo 213 IL Guangdong 202 201 204 207 214 220 225 225 225 218 224 229 Guangxi 175 173 177 180 184 193 199 204 206 207 212 220 Fujian 186 185 192 205 209 214 222 229 234 224 231 235 Hainan 170 183 189 190 199 205 197 203 Southwrns 16 64 4 2 12 W 11 11 2 t Sichuan 182 185 187 189 192 195 198 203 204 203 203 207 Guizhou 158 161 168 175 180 187 193 206 211 215 220 228 Yunnan 143 144 145 146 151 156 159 161 165 167 170 173 Xizang 95 94 95 95 95 96 96 97 96 96 97 99 at'l intal Sta tis 46 147 a42 13 55 isaok.aruss2 Source Chmna Statistical Yearbook, vanious issues -127- Table A1.7: Barren Land Resources by Province Barren Land Area Suitable for Agri. Prod Province (10,000 mu) Distribution Country total 20,348 6 Beijing 20 0 Daxin and Yanqin Counties Tianjin 25 6 Baodi, Nnghe, Jixian, Wuqing and Jinghai mainly, as well as Tanggu, Hangu nd Dgang Hebei 244 6 over half are in the sea area and low-lying plain, where salinity and alkalinity is severe, others are old river course Shanxi 392 8 mainly in the north, middle, south and southeast basins Nest is southeast and north plateaus Inner Mongolia 1,755.4 Nengpang in the east, west Liaohe Valley, Yellow River Water Diversion Command Area in the Liaoning 335 6 mainly in the middle and lower ranges of Liaohe, and Liaohe Delta, east hills and low hilly areas Jilin 304 5 Songliao Plain and east hilly area, as well as Changbaishan Heilongliang 2,333 0 mainly in Sanjiang Plain (13 million mu), Songneng Plain and Heihe River Area (10 million mu) and Zhangguangcailing (1 million mu) Shanghai 4 0 scattered over all counties of the municipality, with most concentrated area of Chongming Jiangsu 378 4 Binghai and coastal counties. some are in shallow hilly area of south Jiangsu Zhejiang 139.7 distributed in every part of the province. The most concentrated area isjinheng, occupying 50% of the total area Anhui 54 3 mainly in the souty hilly area very little in the north, jianghuai and yanjiang areas Fujian 117 1 Nanping and Sanming of northwest mainly The rest are scattered in the east costal counties Jiangxi 446.6 Fanyang Lake and Jiwu Area, as well as south, northeast,and northwest areas Shandong 282 4 along uellow river and its delta, east hilly area Henan 385 3 South and north Plain of Yellow River, as wil as west coastal tidal land Nanyang Basin, as well as south hilly and west mountainous areas Hubei 306 9 mainly in Jianghan Plain and upper and middle part of Hanshui They are also located in Qingling and Dabashan Area Hunan 562 5 concentrated in the south, as well as Dayong and Huihua of West hunan Little in Dongting lake Some in the red soil area of middl and east of Hunan Province Guangdong 206 0 evenly distributed, with main focuss in east coastal sea and north mountains. Next is Zhujiang delta, as well as west and Sijiang area Guangxi 709 0 mainly in the eastern part Hainan 413 2 mainly in the north and east plain areas. Some in the west plain and hilly areas Sichuan 825 8 mainly in Anning River and Jinshajiang (about 4 million mu) Next to it is Sichuan Basin and its sorrounding mountains (4 million mu). Little in West Sichuan Plateau Guizhou 178.6 mainly in the middle, south and southwest Yunnan 624 5 4 milliion mu are in the south and 800,000 mu in the southeast There are about 700,000 mu in the Shengzhong plateau, basin and lake area Tibet 20.7 Yaluzangbu River, Lasa River and Nianzhu River, hence is a suitable reclamation area Shaanxi 130 0 Yulin area of the north, and Guanzhong. Gansu 634 5 5.5 million mu are distributed in Hexi Corridor and 700,000 mu in the middle part of the area The rest are in the eastern part and south of Gansu Qinghai 631.0 east of'Zhaidamu Basin and sorrounding area of Qinghai lake, hence very difficult in land Ningxia 640 0 half each in the Yellow River command area and southern mountains Great efforts shoudl be made while reclaming Xingjiang 7,345 5 mainly in Arkesu, Bayingguoleng, Artai, Changji and Yacheng Due to dry dlimate, reclamation is limited by water resources Source: National Agricultural Zoning Committee Table AI.8: Land Reclamation Area by Province, 1953-1995 (1,000 ha) 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 Nrthes Heilongjiang 8247 10100 18140 621.00 20827 35600 167.33 14667 10933 141 00 21667 Liaoning 1573 2727 2933 121.00 4587 6773 1820 9253 5060 9227 48.00 Jilin 15.27 47 13 44.53 14240 79.53 93 33 6680 5867 8540 7873 5000 North Beijing 000 000 067 0.53 040 193 047 1 13 1 73 100 133 Tianjin 000 000 0.00 000 000 000 0.00 000 000 000 000 Hebei 5707 2333 1527 8047 43.13 68.73 5453 110.00 4287 4127 5400 Shanxi 5540 653 1740 40.93 4560 16.07 5860 8120 5227 5067 45.33 Henan 1667 1667 1493 2320 20 13 16.67 9400 000 4053 5647 2000 Shaanxi 027 027 427 2040 4773 26.00 44.67 17333 11747 8147 4600 Shandong 820 12 73 893 2407 2847 2733 21.33 6333 3387 3400 2533 anthwnt Inner Mongoli 2160 2460 10473 251.47 12147 111.33 17200 88667 30867 22867 17200 Gansu 97.27 2547 22.47 11453 4820 5627 8033 113.53 1373 1933 1467 Qinghai 000 280 767 1933 827 4840 13847 22873 407 2 13 267 Ningxia 0.00 000 0.00 000 000 000 1800 70 80 31 13 1333 1733 Xingiang 1040 6.67 5860 49 53 9680 31667 36667 61333 16133 8600 10467 Shanghai 000 000 000 000 000 000 0.67 800 4 53 227 200 N 00 Jiangsu 3000 4460 5900 4627 2420 2993 3627 3987 2693 1460 11 33 Zhejiang 400 400 1407 1020 4.27 6 33 467 9 13 987 15 33 333 Anhui 2000 34653 8200 933 2027 10 80 24 27 98.27 3000 1613 1533 Jiangxi 600 000 000 000 0.00 1887 4620 63 87 32.13 1847 10.00 Hubei 1000 1727 3393 35 80 45 53 10900 17367 350.40 9800 7787 52.67 Hunan 2.00 18.00 2120 29.80 19 13 8467 9200 146.73 5447 70.40 4267 South Guangdong 5667 49.60 24.40 49 87 5507 55 53 12567 154.60 12993 69 80 3333 Guangxi 6340 7273 2240 3453 4507 5640 5407 104 87 10087 6647 3733 Fujian 293 407 900 23.60 427 2 13 693 2780 1347 1720 667 Hainan 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 Sonthwent Sichuan 460 5.27 960 20.47 1533 0 00 36.13 667 0.00 6667 4133 Guizhou 1333 667 3027 6007 2227 3 93 15.67 000 12.07 2873 1467 Yunnan 4067 4000 3007 86 73 74 60 7033 6227 11600 9193 9547 9533 Tibet 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 Total 63333 90480 86360 1961 20 113693 1656.00 197987 3766 13 167060 148633 118400 Source National Agricultural Zoning Committee Table A1.8: Land Reclamation Area by Province, 1953-1995 (1,000 ha) (Continued..) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Nrtdhant Heilongpzang 12267 18167 11227 15227 16673 12880 13700 34687 21787 10540 99 13 6627 Liaoning 1867 1667 1627 1560 1093 1280 873 2093 5.93 760 3 87 300 Jilin 4067 1833 2333 1740 1567 893 11.40 2933 1133 587 6.27 373 Beijing 020 0 13 000 007 000 000 000 0.00 000 0.00 000 000 Tianjin 233 040 060 027 040 027 060 040 027 007 000 0 13 Hebei 1067 10.67 227 160 153 067 453 193 040 140 033 020 Shanxi 1453 2227 2293 1573 1807 14 13 17.40 1867 1740 1480 773 1080 Henan 953 400 340 3.00 193 200 193 253 3.67 240 373 193 Shaanxi 593 707 893 1073 1533 993 24.33 21 13 2053 1680 1760 1140 Shandong 893 660 673 453 673 760 507 4 13 327 273 520 507 Inner Mongoli 3967 2327 1773 867 793 887 653 22.53 5033 2080 1053 13 53 Gansu 680 867 827 927 853 573 733 7.33 640 4 13 240 220 Qinghai 333 220 287 187 100 153 227 440 060 120 007 027 Ningxia 1067 587 493 447 600 287 547 727 1007 593 1 53 127 Xingjiang 5287 3807 3380 28.67 2813 2647 29.60 3967 3007 21 13 1720 1540 EastI Shanghai 000 000 027 007 000 013 000 233 027 007 020 040 Jiangsu 1733 740 220 227 240 260 227 227 380 347 327 407 '0 Zhejiang 1373 507 627 360 287 540 533 593 127 253 1 47 1.27 Anhui 2.87 153 113 087 093 067 127 220 347 073 080 047 Central Jiangxi 1400 3 53 307 313 287 200 1 87 1.87 253 140 093 000 Hubei 2420 1313 1067 900 640 927 493 600 500 427 3 73 3 13 Hunan 2480 1160 1027 880 787 647 627 687 547 473 360 380 South Guangdong 5327 1887 2373 2620 2740 2153 13 53 11 80 733 5 73 6 73 760 Guangxi 50 13 2680 3540 4680 4320 4627 2893 2500 2773 3600 2347 2120 Fujian 573 173 120 100 107 053 060 047 033 033 027 027 Hainan 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 Sichuan 1133 800 820 900 800 640 760 853 627 940 627 353 Guizhou 1073 507 560 260 520 460 387 447 407 993 660 547 Yunnan 3200 3667 3020 3553 3053 2980 4280 5407 8400 9820 7553 5820 Tibet 000 153 153 153 193 140 153 253 247 067 100 053 IQla * 60760 48680 40407 42453 42940 36767 38267 66147 532 13 38773 30947 245 13 Source National Source National Agncultural Zoning Committee Table A1.8: Land Reclamation Area by Province, 1953-1995 (1,000 ha) (Continued..) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Northeas HeilongJiang 6733 3300 3800 5867 5333 29 13 31 27 3520 3240 2040 1530 1381 4200 Liaoning 7.13 393 5.07 107 087 273 160 173 210 240 120 167 220 Jilin 567 693 400 393 4.87 267 447 613 370 480 260 359 460 Ngri Beijing 0.00 000 0.00 000 0.00 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 Tianjin 007 000 027 013 000 013 007 020 020 000 020 0.00 010 Hebei 0.07 013 007 007 007 020 073 053 090 080 070 028 210 Shanxi 640 913 873 807 680 553 440 447 550 280 370 239 250 Henan 133 120 140 167 113 000 107 167 100 120 000 215 250 Shaanxi 11 73 6.87 1107 9.60 1027 007 1173 1533 8.40 800 750 547 640 Shandong 3.73 427 360 2 87 3 87 527 640 887 1050 5 10 400 4.89 5 70 Northwest Inner Mongol1 1827 22 60 2600 15 53 3027 40 80 4067 62.00 44.50 4390 2900 4622 5520 Gansu 400 387 253 3.27 433 027 473 240 2.00 680 300 298 270 Qinghai 027 247 233 147 2.33 000 647 660 310 170 290 147 160 Ningxia 167 580 380 320 173 040 213 160 290 480 100 382 320 Xngliang 1833 2907 2460 24.80 3487 2947 3967 39.13 5200 4440 28 10 27.76 3480 East Shanghai 027 007 000 0.00 000 000 000 013 000 620 000 010 050 Jiangsu 340 300 253 200 0 73 107 147 273 260 130 050 077 160 0 Zhejiang 1 53 1 27 087 1 33 140 233 1.33 1 67 1.70 040 040 0 16 080 Anhui 047 080 053 040 040 033 027 0.20 010 040 020 067 060 Central Jiangxi 0.53 053 040 047 093 047 053 067 0.90 070 050 081 040 Hubei 273 247 507 220 253 0.07 287 393 420 310 200 169 160 Hunan 173 180 2.73 287 2.53 0.07 3.73 267 370 310 300 589 330 Sonth Guangdong 707 633 8.60 947 1173 0.60 947 633 890 6 10 600 693 760 Guangxi 1453 1273 1747 2227 23.40 027 2420 30 13 3070 2810 2420 2338 3590 Fujian 020 027 047 040 040 053 0 80 1.13 170 120 080 103 1 10 Hainan 000 000 000 000 000 000 400 287 470 270 290 243 200 Southwest Sichuan 287 340 353 253 3.00 027 460 540 570 460 4.00 361 340 Guizhou 393 533 507 447 5.00 000 400 340 350 420 350 323 420 Yunnan 4660 4053 3820 4300 4120 0 13 3987 4220 3890 3320 2500 2850 3490 Tibet 060 060 160 020 067 000 093 033 030 060 000 041 040 Total 23247 20840 21847 22593 24867 26327 25347 28967 27670 24300 17220 196 11 26400 Source National Source National Agricultural Zoning Committee Table A1.9: Soil and Water Erosion Control 1973-1995 (1,000 ha) Control Area Subject Area Total Among which: % of the % of erosion Level Water Area Contry land Area area Terracing Gully land conser. forest 1973 117,650 12.3 35,091 29.8 4,913 725 13,725 1974 116,519 12.2 38,423 33.0 4,876 855 17,796 1975 119,630 12.5 40,757 34.1 7,011 847 20,178 1976 119,241 12.5 42,007 35.2 7,365 942 21,314 1977 115,290 12.1 42,441 36.8 7,161 929 20,924 1978 118,346 12.4 40,435 34.2 7,239 891 21,005 1979 118,172 12.4 40,606 34.4 6,461 931 21,273 1980 118,304 12.4 41,152 34.8 6,539 895 21,679 1981 126,399 13.2 41,647 32.9 6,427 878 21,827 1982 120,897 12.6 41,412 34.3 6,367 924 22,367 1983 120,343 12.6 42,405 35.2 6,457 922 22,829 1984 121,037 12.7 44,623 36.9 7,062 1,050 24,570 1985 129,223 13.5 46,393 35.9 6,982 1,275 25,648 1986 131,077 13.7 47,909 36.5 7,436 1,269 26,923 1987 132,018 13.8 49,528 37.5 7,755 1,579 27,889 1988 133,806 14.0 51,349 38.4 7,952 1,438 29,461 1989 134,830 14.1 52,150 38.7 1990 136,000 14.2 53,000 39.0 1991 162,300 17.0 55,800 34.4 1992 162,200 17.0 58,600 36.1 1993 163,000 17.1 61,300 37.6 1994 163,045 17.1 64,080 39.3 1995 163,047 17.1 66,855 41.0 -135- Table A1.10: Flood Prevention Measures 1973-1995 (1,000 ha) Area with Prevention Measures % of Prevention in Place Subject Area Subtotal ubject area 3-5 Years over 5 years 1973 22,016 15,620 70.9 7,033 8,388 1974 23,337 17,467 74.8 7,238 10,132 1975 22,081 16,061 72.7 7,043 9,018 1976 22,229 16,689 75.1 7,056 9,629 1977 22,277 16,881 75.8 7,219 9,662 1978 22,554 17,281 76.6 7,417 9,865 1979 23,248 17,749 76.3 7,539 10,209 1980 23,410 17,847 76.2 7,316 10,531 1981 23,777 17,896 75.3 7,174 10,722 1982 23,777 18,093 76.1 7,211 10,882 1983 24,066 18,201 75.6 7,195 11,006 1984 24,235 18,399 75.9 7,157 11,242 1985 24,207 18,584 76.8 7,217 11,367 1986 24,229 18,761 77.4 7,431 11,330 1987 24,337 18,958 77.9 7,521 11,437 1988 24,348 19,065 78.3 7,532 11,530 1989 24,425 19,229 78.7 n.a. n.a. 1990 24,467 19,337 79.0 n.a. n.a. 1991 24,424 19,580 80.2 8,004 11,576 1992 24,410 19,772 81.0 7,999 11,773 1993 24,425 19,883 81.4 8,068 11,815 1994 24,425 19,979 81.8 8,172 11,806 1995 24,425 20,065 82.2 8,242 11,823 -136- Table A1.11: Salinity Control 1973-1995 (1,000 ha) % of improved are Subject Area Improved Area of the subject area 1973 6,754 3,226 47.8 1974 6,705 3,653 54.5 1975 7,062 3,885 55.0 1976 7,132 4,186 58.7 1977 7,262 4,041 55.6 1978 7,245 4,131 57.0 1979 7,302 4,132 56.6 1980 7,145 4,235 59.3 1981 7,243 4,263 58.8 1982 7,243 4,265 58.9 1983 7,357 4,391 59.7 1984 7,331 4,474 61.0 1985 7,693 4,569 59.4 1986 7,607 4,623 60.8 1987 7,636 4,755 62.3 1988 7,672 4,830 63.0 1989 7,539 4,883 64.8 1990 7,539 4,995 66.3 1991 7,641 5,110 66.9 1992 7,633 5,209 68.2 1993 7,656 5,305 69.3 1994 7,656 5,351 69.9 1995 7,656 5,434 71.0 ТаЫе А2 1: Tota1 Сепа1 Агеа, Ьу Region апд Ргоиnп, Сh�пв, 1979-95 Region/ргоvисе 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 19В5 1986 1987 1988 1989 I990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1.ООО А[С[8гр пь ,а 11.14о 11уо 10.717 1о.гsо ю�97о 1о•99о 9�ц 10.367 о в7 1i 9.645 1оу1о io.BO9 1о.ац 10.Ыб 9.77о о аб toyiь Hedon8liang 5,452 5,451 5,26Э 4,727 5,2В1 5,Э25 4,628 4,918 4,798 4,211 4,765 5,124 5,130 4,965 4,251 4,485 4,752 Liвomng 2,756 2.706 2.639 2.647 2.709 2.6Ы 2А25 2,5Ы 2.672 2.649 2.640 2.699 2.665 2.661 2.624 2,Ы2 2.655 Lhn 2,932 2,88Э 2.815 2.875 2.980 3.004 2.701 2,888 2.917 2.786 2,605 2.987 3.037 ЗД20 2.895 2.970 3.109 NS1h ё8,5?1 27у85 6Z� 33�„� �7.l� �1 �Ь� 27•6W 2�_490 Z,1?7 �� Z�1 1�:71 �1` 2�_483 �.982 �i4 Bnpng 540 531 51) 511 514 507 490 480 474 469 462 465 466 462 438 409 416 Tienlm 556 5Э4 489 469 471 45I 407 412 410 40Э 402 408 404 388 377 ЭЫ 388 Hebei 6,959 6,753 6,596 6,214 6,1Вб 5,929 5,7I8 6,010 5,848 5,808 5,895 5,991 5,94) 5,799 5,986 5,818 5,941 Shanxi 3,207 3,117 Э,054 2,943 2,907 2,874 2,634 2,693 2,735 2,687 2,760 2,755 2,682 2,674 2,707 2,662 2,610 Нгпвп 6,934 6,814 6,826 6,879 7,276 7,20) 7,386 7,Ы 6 7,688 7,574 7,830 7,930 7,818 7,58I 7,632 7,506 7,552 Shaanxi Э,720 J,732 3,545 3,517 3,498 3,4В0 3,479 3,434 Э,520 3,454 Э,488 7,511 3,464 3,424 Э,38В 3,395 3,197 Shandong 6,640 6,505 6,281 5,999 6,276 6,423 6,652 7,009 6,815 6,802 6,805 6,960 6,993 6,835 6,955 6,632 7,020 ��! 2`5 9�?87 2А2 ¢,� бу_20 Е_�25 8.250 8.303 В�277 81278 8•439 В�_68 8�90 В_`,ЬО 8�268 8_�89 8_`57 Nei Monggol 3,583 3,459 3,428 Э,Эб4 7,364 J,723 2,976 3,092 Э,052 J,072 3,I57 Э,32В 3,33В 3,Э19 3,154 3,I70 J,231 Gansu 2,670 2,646 2,576 2,560 2,565 2,5J0 2,482 2,463 2,495 2,460 2,485 2,520 2,488 2,518 2,463 2,485 2,545 Qinghai )83 Э7Ь Э77 381 375 376 Э56 355 357 354 ЭЬ2 766 367 364 353 Э49 747 Nmgxia 676 659 650 606 6Эб 624 592 602 609 622 625 641 646 645 642 647 670 Xmlieng 2,23Э 2,147 2,059 2,006 1,960 1,972 1,В44 1,791 1,768 1,769 1,8I0 1,81Э 1,756 1,714 1,657 1,4ЭВ 1,564 Г.9S! 1?`Ч �3�0 t3.846 13у47 / 150 14.499 13•981 13.967 14.1J6 14.125 141_g3 14,434 14317 (4.о15 13.485 12у21 13_,175 � Shanghe� 490 493 442 447 476 484 436 443 437 417 411 412 410 787 Э56 741 776 W Лangsu 5,549 5,972 5,696 5,72Э 5,841 5,986 5,832 5,869 S,Вбб 5,824 5,897 5,897 5,810 5,796 5,558 5,308 5,387 � 1 Zhe�iалg 3,154 3,203 7,150 3,207 3,268 3,277 Э,073 2,965 3,026 3,005 Э,ООЬ Э,045 3,048 2,950 2,623 2,510 2,569 Anhw 4,786 4,693 4,558 4,569 4,565 4,752 4,640 4,690 4,ВО8 4,879 4,970 5,080 5,048 4,882 4 949 4,762 4,883 SsO.lга1 1?.б_L6 1�ч1 lэуоs lзуго 1Э.186 1з.178 12•701 1 ба 12,693 1г,бое 12.883 12.919 1г.7ао 12_,2Ве 11.776 11.RП5 11.921 liaпgx� 3,597 Э,552 3,527 3,495 3,475 3,477 3,409 Э,Э87 Э,405 3,345 3,436 3,434 3,322 3,157 3,042 3,114 3,203 Huбei 4,В44 4,791 4,641 4,707 4,760 4,767 4,586 4,551 4,Ы 3 4,552 4,626 4,643 4,641 4,423 4,246 4,200 4,191 Нипап 5,174 4,948 4,937 4,918 4,951 4,9Э4 4,706 4,743 4,675 4,7I1 4,820 4,842 4,81В 4,705 4,48В 4,492 4,527 Sou 10_,112 10,018 9уб2 44 9Э82 9�76 ВЭ76 8.119 8�0 8.355 8у_1Э 8�00 8�89 8,�_51 788 7у_Э1 7.934 Guangdong 4,782 4,534 4,Э06 4,242 4,244 4,107 3,75В 3,74Э 3,696 3,248 Э,356 3,380 3,265 Э,ОЬ2 2,773 2,776 2,849 GuaпBxi 3,754 3,620 Э,539 3,437 7,Э60 3,249 3,020 Э,074 Э,О81 3,076 Э,141 3,178 3,100 Э,070 7,043 3,076 3,098 Fulian 1,876 1,864 1,816 1,76Э 1,778 1,720 1,596 1,602 1,65) 1,651 1,690 1,704 1,690 1,677 1,546 1,565 1,563 Наiпал n а п в п в п а п в п а n в п а п а 381 426 478 435 443 426 4I4 424 $914h eTit 3821 14у78 13,587 13.409 IJ.336 11.170 12,567 12.5Ы 12,5I3 12.740 12.980 1Э,2Э4 13J92 13 бд 1Э.264 13J57 13.389 Sichuал 8,069 8,640 8,208 8,124 8,062 7,942 7,560 7,538 7,497 7,599 7,692 7,794 7,882 7,866 7,814 7,708 7,753 Gштlюи 2,1Э8 2.02В 1,922 1.891 1.901 1,891 1.786 1,609 1.В1) 1.8Ы 1 937 2,006 2.066 2,091 2.112 2,190 2.201 Yunnan Э,408 3,312 3,265 3,197 Э,1В2 1,147 3,025 Э,026 3,045 3,091 3,186 3,26В 3,253 3,215 Э,147 3,274 3,24В Xizang 207 198 192 197 191 190 192 188 189 189 165 166 191 192 191 185 187 Sum of,бove 91.519 90,873 88_� 2J 86_i00 88.15/ 87.7В0 8430I 85_�49 85�678 М.Ьб9 86.611 88у17 87�601 85•72Э 83у_бб 82�964 84_ 0_59 S5B total 119,263 117,234 114,958 117,796 114,047 112,8В4 108,845 110,933 11 1,268 110,123 112,204 113,466 112,Э 14 110,560 110,509 109,544 1 I0,060 Source Chma Agrialmre УеагЬгюk �anous уеагв ТаЫе А2.2: Wheat Агеа. Ьу Region апд Province, China,1979-95 Regton/ргоvиа 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 19В4 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 I991 1992 1993 1994 1995 (1,000 hectares ) NoПheaet 2у_78 2•284 2J49 �OL9 2.19Е 2.076 2.121 2.040 J,,65г 1.306 1.787 t�_36 1.935 8Ы 1•633 1.462 1 68 Hedongl�ang 1,859 2.105 2,190 1.904 2А96 1.980 2Д38 1,969 1.587 1.239 1,682 1.7В1 1.737 1.615 L337 1.199 1.116 Liaonmg 50 41 35 30 21 15 12 21 27 34 S5 114 147 166 183 162 171 1дт I68 1Э8 124 105 81 81 71 50 37 33 50 60 71 81 114 I01 80 ISг�I! ]3,..� j�+-?�{ j�t. 6�0 13,.I� � 1�Э4 LL 91Q 11i42j 14•072 14•167 4 20 11.471 14.573 14.414 4 501 1 230 14.156 Ba1mg 197 188 184 181 187 195 191 185 183 186 185 188 I92 192 I78 164 172 Т[апlт 21Э 195 168 141 155 162 150 144 140 141 138 140 146 142 1Э8 120 141 Heбei 2,844 2,760 2,518 2,24Э 2,346 2,37Э 2,Э52 2,492 2,350 2,421 2,45Э 2,508 2,52В 2,542 2,526 2,456 2,501 Shanxi 1,057 995 944 926 947 966 1,013 1,047 1,010 996 1,014 1,016 1,027 1,0Э4 1,024 1,001 917 Непап Э,888 Э,927 ),990 4,120 4,319 4,456 4,568 4,638 4,688 4,675 4,733 4,783 4,791 4,713 4,840 4,818 4,814 Shaалxi 1,597 1,590 1,547 1,616 1,678 1,689 1,693 1,698 1,698 1,696 1,687 1,691 1,686 1,660 1,644 1,624 1,600 Shandong 3,721 3,668 3,510 3,343 3,587 Э,80Э Э,952 4,21В 4,004 4,052 3,991 4,147 4,197 4,130 4,156 4,049 4,011 h е 4�L 4,188 �J,.a9 1_,L3 25 01329 4.174 1�зз з•991 4•009 1.151 4.J11 4.321 4�283 4_i03 з�740 з,�_27 Nei Monggol 952 957 903 878 911 932 927 937 921 974 1.008 1.154 1.192 1,Э34 1.189 1.034 1.017 Gansu 1,401 1,384 1,Э9Э 1,463 1,508 1,519 1,486 1,486 1,428 1,384 1,446 1,458 1,450 1,3В5 1,404 1,Э60 1,357 Qиghat 202 201 206 224 224 220 201 201 201 205 210 217 218 221 210 205 206 Nmgxta 299 291 272 289 304 308 282 291 247 289 300 Э08 314 217 31Э 29I 294 Xиliang 1,347 1,Э55 1,356 1,329 1,305 1,350 1,278 1,218 1,193 1,157 1,190 1,180 1,150 1,127 1,087 850 9S3 Е�.#! 3.764 3_�2 3,1980 г23 4.4Ч 4.703 4_`20 4.593 11367 4у_30 1•761 0_`68 4.829 4.711 4у 91 4_`09 4�12 -� 5hanghai 43 51 52 47 37 36 57 73 77 70 70 77 83 78 76 62 6I �/'1 lmngsu 1,496 I,549 1,699 1.867 2,014 2.236 2,170 2,266 2.2I8 2,247 2,354 2.399 2.365 2.ЭЬб 2,282 2.114 2.150 � 1 Zhqtang 275 326 324 Э47 368 367 338 302 286 296 30Э Э18 318 Э02 249 216 208 Anhw 1,950 1,916 1,905 1,968 2,025 2,064 t,955 1,954 1,9ВЬ 2,017 2,034 2,074 2,063 1,965 2,085 2,016 1,993 S�I� � l.б� L6� 1,(6I 68 .L 669А L� L�ZQ � � 1`61Р L�$ � J� .�? 1,4Z� 14�9 hangxi 136 121 116 104 98 99 94 87 84 60 78 75 72 73 74 77 60 НиЬе[ 1.255 1.292 1,274 1,342 1.375 1,Э84 1,Э31 1.Э06 1,349 1.331 1.Э41 1.Э52 1.348 1.288 1.271 1,226 1.180 Нипап 267 222 219 216 211 208 186 177 175 176 200 201 223 215 177 178 169 $цРlh 67¢ � 261 2N .�73 jZ L L J53 168 220 240 230 2]J 137 L 1�7 Guangdong 405 2)6 107 99 98 бб 56 41 41 4Э 73 91 87 76 39 25 27 Guangxt 102 42 24 21 18 15 12 13 1Э 18 29 25 17 14 14 1Э 22 Fulian 170 147 129 114 117 96 86 8Э 101 I07 117 124 126 124 В4 76 69 Наиаn па па па па па па па па пв 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 bwes з�4ьз 17 3.119 з�n з.о[7 г� г�iь г.7г0 2,755 г_,9_17 з.о9в э.г7з з1з9t з�за 3�s з�sо э�71 S�chuan 2.286 2.165 2.273 2.259 2.250 2.193 2,000 1.995 2.015 2.077 2.149 2,221 2.281 2.296 2.Э38 2,Э10 2.3Э2 Gwzhou 447 3Э5 273 257 259 260 234 260 268 Э18 782 441 485 508 552 564 562 Уиппап 664 589 528 468 467 458 443 429 4Э4 487 528 570 583 590 Ы 1 629 625 Xizang бб 59 45 43 41 45 )9 36 З8 40 39 42 4Э 44 44 48 52 Sum оГ above 29.337 8 844 281307 г7•942 29•047 29у76 29у17 29_�17 28у_98 28_�83 9 В 1 зоу_53 30 9_47 30у96 30s 5 28.981 28_i60 5S8 total 29,357 28,844 2В 307 27,941 29,050 29 576 29,218 29,616 28,79В 28,785 29,841 З0,7SЗ 30,948 Э0,496 Э0,2Э5 2В,981 2В 860 Soun;e Chma Agnculture Year6ook, vanous years ТаЫе А2.2а: Winter Wheat Агеа, Ьу RegiOn апд Province, China, 1979-95 Regicn/ртоип 1979 1982 1983 19В4 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1993 1,000 hectaпs еаз гз !! Z 2 ! ! ! о о ! ! � 4 � 4 неаоп�lа о (о> (о) о о о о (о) о о о о о о (о) Liaoning 23 1Э 7 3 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 5 4 Э 4 1i1m 0 (0) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1V31h 1�3_4$ !?,.4i lЭ�.141 1?�Ь 1у8� � 13_,987 13�.�1 LL133Ь_ l4Э10 !4S`2 14.J47 14,_438 14,LZ� 1�11? Beiling 193 178 184 192 1В9 183 181 184 18Э 185 190 191 177 162 171 Tianlm 207 129 143 150 1Э5 131 128 1Э2 1Э1 134 140 140 1Эб 1I6 137 НеЬе� 2,807 2,223 2,Э25 2,Э37 2,ЭЗ4 2,483 2,Э43 2,416 2,448 2,504 2,523 2,339 2,523 2,454 2,300 Shanx� 930 897 914 929 966 996 963 953 968 982 993 990 97В 963 891 Непап Э,888 4,120 4,319 4,436 4,368 4,638 4,688 4,675 4,73Э 4,783 4,797 4,713 4,840 4,818 4,814 Shaanxi 1,588 1,608 1,668 1,67В 1,681 1,6В3 1,680 1,679 1,670 1,674 1,671 1,643 1,629 1,609 1,391 Shandong 3,715 Э,340 3,587 3,802 Э,952 4,21В 4,004 4,032 Э,991 4,147 4,197 4,130 4,136 4,049 4,011 Northwest 1.527 !`80 62 1•656 1.Ы8 1550 !, 00 1.416 j,�1q 1.524 1•537 1.475 1.535 1 69 1�398 Ne� Mong 0 0 (0) 0 0 0 0 0 0 (0) (0) 0 0 0 0 Gansu 689 735 738 771 771 746 724 682 713 727 731 720 738 737 722 Qmghai 0 (0) 0 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nmgxia 58 54 38 59 52 43 36 44 75 31 57 31 60 64 68 Xmltang 780 791 811 826 795 759 740 690 726 745 746 723 737 368 607 1 �@ц 3�64 4.225 9,g� 9,70} 4„�Q 4.595 4,567 4.630 9,7¢� 4,�68 4.829 4.711 4•691 4�409 4�12 W Shanghai 43 43 Э7 36 57 73 77 70 70 77 83 78 76 62 61 �р liangsu 1,496 1,867 2,OI4 2,236 2,170 2,266 2,218 2,247 2,334 2,Э99 2,Эб5 2,366 2,282 2,114 2,150 1 Zheliang 275 347 ЭЬ8 Эб7 ЭЭ8 Э02 286 296 303 Э18 Э18 Э02 249 216 20В Anhw 1,950 1,968 2,025 2,064 1,955 1,934 1,986 2,017 2,034 2,074 2,063 1,963 2,083 2,016 1,993 �€пS.С91 ! Ь�В !`� l�84 1,691 Ы ],5�0 � ! 5�7 L19 1�28 у3 1� 1� !� �4�9 1�angx� 136 104 98 99 94 87 84 80 78 75 72 7Э 74 73 60 НиЬе� 1,253 1,Э42 1,373 1,Э84 1,33I 1,306 1,349 1,3Э 1 1,34I 1,352 1,348 1,288 1,271 1,226 1,180 Нипап 267 216 21I 208 186 ,177 175 176 200 201 223 2I3 177 178 169 outh � �З j,�71 ]Z ]36 3L7 5j_5 168 �2Q 240 !30 214 98 � 9! Guangdon 405 99 98 бб 56 41 41 43 73 91 87 76 39 25 0 Guangxt l02 21 18 15 12 I3 1Э 18 29 23 17 14 (23) 1Э 22 Fujian 170 114 117 96 88 8Э 101 107 117 124 126 124 В4 76 69 Hetnan5u2 па па па na па па па 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Soulhwest Э•449 2�84 2.976 2.911 2.677 2•684 2.717 2�877 J_`9 31259 3� 3у4 _25 3�60 Э�36 3}530 Stchuan 2,286 2,259 2,250 2,193 2,000 1,995 2,015 2,077 2,149 2,221 2.281 2,296 2.294 2,310 2.332 Guizhou 447 257 239 260 234 260 268 318 362 441 4В3 508 552 564 362 Уилпал 664 468 467 458 443 429 4Э4 483 528 570 5В3 590 583 629 622 Xizang 52 0 (0) 0 16 22 2Э 24 24 28 27 Э1 31 34 Э4 Sum ofaбove 24•444 23.192 24.111 24.705 24•408 24•869 24•ц2 24.770 25,300 25•931 26.124 25.753 25_,748 25,077 24у78 Note Wmter wheat агеа �s calculated as а residual(total wheat агеа тииs spnng wheat area) Натап дв[а avadaЫe бeginnmg т 1988-prior years, тсlидед т Guалgdong Table A2.2b: Spring Wheat Area by Region and Province, China, 1979-1995 Region/Province 1979 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1989 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 (1000 ha) Northeas 2.055 2.027 U 91 2.073 2.120 2.039 1.651 1.306 1.787 1.954 1953 1856 1629 1,45-9 1,364 Heilongpang 1,859 1,904 2,096 1,980 2,038 1,969 1,587 1,239 1,682 1,781 1,737 1,615 1,337 1,199 1,116 Liaoning 28 17 14 12 11 20 27 34 55 113 145 161 179 159 167 Jilin 168 105 81 81 71 50 37 33 50 60 71 81 114 101 80 North IA9 71 R NO 24 20 if 20 L6 64 0 L6 1E6 LO R Beijing 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 Tianjin 5 12 12 12 15 13 11 9 7 6 6 3 2 4 4 Hebei 37 20 21 16 18 9 8 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 Shanxi 107 31 33 37 47 51 47 43 46 34 34 45 46 38 26 Henan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Shaanxi 9 8 10 11 12 15 17 17 17 17 17 15 15 15 9 Shandong 7 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Northwest LL74 2.603 2.625 2.673 2.556 2.583 2.491 2593 2.640 1790 2.791 .,Ol 1 1 1429 inner Mongolia 952 878 911 932 927 937 921 974 1,008 1,154 1,192 1,334 1,189 1,034 1,017 Gansu 712 728 750 748 715 740 705 702 733 731 719 665 666 623 635 Qinghai 202 224 224 220 201 201 201 205 210 213 218 221 210 205 206 Ningxia 241 235 246 249 230 246 211 245 225 257 258 185 254 227 226 Xinjiang 567 538 494 524 483 459 453 467 464 435 404 403 350 282 345 1 East 9 9 0 9 9 2 Shanghai 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jiangsu 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Zhejiang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Anhui 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Central 9 2 9 9 9 q 2 i! Q Q 9 2 Jiangxi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hubei 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hunan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 2 9 9 9 Q 9 2 2 R 2 26 Guangdong 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 Guangxi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 0 0 Fujian 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hainan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Southwo 14 !L3 L L 9 q a 9 Q L4 L7 U 5 1-4 U Sichuan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 44 0 0 Guizhou 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Yunnan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 0 3 Tibet 14 43 41 45 23 14 15 16 15 14 17 13 13 14 18 Slim of aboy 013 4.750 4936 4871 4.770 4.712 4228 3.975 4503 4822 4823 4.743 4.486 3.904 3.882 Nat'l Total 4,913 4,750 4,937 4,872 4,793 4,725 4,243 3,992 4,517 4,823 4,743 4,486 3,904 3,892 Sources China Agriculture yearbook, various years ТаЫе А2.3: Tota1 Rice Агеа, Ьу Region апд PrOVince, Chma, 1979-95 Region/ргоипсс 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 199I 1992 1993 1994 1995 1,000 hкtares еаа � В49 � 9(15 ?1� 29? 1,l_9! !,3$9 L9a2 l.487 1�S!7 l.�635 L?� !�1 1� l.633 1�3� Heilonglюng 206 210 224 2Э9 245 278 390 507 581 553 604 673 747 778 736 747 635 Liaomng 374 Э86 397 406 40Э 432 460 501 5ЭЭ 554 553 54) 548 557 484 459 47Э 1Jm 261 253 254 260 266 285 324 351 Эб8 380 Э90 418 433 442 428 418 470 N4C(!! QL8 1.026 920 856 8В3 � � В81 ВВ3 6�7 p�j 960 1•039 1_�33 917 906 917 Ве0иg 50 52 49 41 46 44 43 40 39 36 ЭЬ 34 35 Э2 27 2J 23 Tianlm 6Э 64 Э4 23 24 24 Э1 35 41 46 49 46 58 56 42 40 48 НеЬе� 124 145 132 128 127 111 128 12Э 125 133 146 148 150 149 127 118 129 Shanw 12 12 9 10 9 9 9 6 7 7 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 Непап 402 4I7 395 395 411 446 435 412 414 402 427 440 477 508 444 447 451 5haanxi 156 16Э 161 159 I61 160 157 156 156 154 158 I59 162 161 162 158 139 5hалdong 172 I73 139 100 105 108 112 107 101 88 102 124 148 118 109 114 121 г hw' L L6S 1?8 ]65 L L 5L2 151 162 177 ,� � � ,3-79 210 J� 221 Nei Monggol 16 15 16 16 16 18 24 27 28 Э5 53 79 88 94 73 66 79 Gansu 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 q 4 4 5 5 6 6 Ь 7 Qmghai 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nmgxia 48 46 49 50 50 51 50 51 5Э 55 57 60 61 ЬЗ 63 57 62 Xmliang 107 98 89 95 96 96 74 69 77 ВЗ В4 84 80 76 68 63 73 1 аа 7•697 7,173Э 7.198 7.396 7.384 j,l86 229 7.247 7.260 1В2 7•3Э1 7.401 7�227 7.244 6i00 бу_57 6i54 � 5hangha� Э25 305 27Э 283 299 301 270 285 276 260 258 253 248 235 216 210 210 '� .� liangsu 2,703 2,677 2,598 2,501 2,520 2,516 2,431 2,422 2,400 2,3В4 2,420 2,454 2,Э51 2,447 2,279 2,163 2,250 � Zhe��ang 2,475 2,514 2,500 2,500 2,508 2,500 2,368 2,355 2,376 2,354 2,380 2,384 2,378 2,318 2,136 2,076 2,136 Anhw 2,195 2,238 2.127 2.112 2.057 2.169 2.140 2.185 2.208 2.I84 2.27Э 2.312 2.250 2.244 2,170 2.108 2.156 nt а1 10у24 10•504 10.369 1о.зза io•зьо 10.319 1о•os1 to.11a 1о•OS1 lоузг toysa 10.299 10.075 9•707 s_,2__бч 9.352 9.508 liangxi 3,387 3,J64 Э,363 1,339 Э,324 Э,327 7,265 Э,251 3,269 3,211 3,298 Э,293 Э,154 2,982 2,865 2,939 Э,015 НиЬа 2J31 2.708 2.590 2.605 2.Ы 7 2.621 2,539 2,540 2.558 2.527 2,606 2,636 2.623 2.53В 2.378 2.772 2,409 Нипал 4,507 4,412 4,416 4,390 4,419 4,401 4,247 4,J28 4,255 4,294 4,354 4,370 4,298 4,186 4,026 4,041 4,0В4 �4ELh 8.7ц В�? д,• 02 В_�91 ✓� $+LI Z.� Z� 7�� Z9э.� Z�386 Z+616 7.<44 Z..� 6�822 6.882 Ь�Ч�Q Guалgdong 4.252 4.164 4А59 4.005 4,029 3,934 З.ЬОЬ 3.606 3.554 3,119 3.179 7.176 3.065 2.876 2,630 2.671 2.700 Guangц� 2.830 2,764 2.792 2.773 2J37 2.661 2.471 2.519 2.504 2,463 2.494 2.544 2,475 2.465 2.419 2.417 2А21 Fu�ian 1,670 1,6ВЬ 1,651 1,613 1,616 1,587 1,477 1,485 I,494 1,487 I,509 1,512 1,49Э I,477 1,Э83 1,403 1,406 Нвтап па па па па па па па па па 368 404 414 411 414 Э90 392 394 .�4�L1.rt9S31 4�4 4�65 4,9�5 iS!SL 5�ii 5,�7� � 4,В� l,7�3 0�6J0 4sa51 4•892 4.Вм 1�858 4.690 4�657 4у_86 Sichuan 3,005 3,062 3,126 3,124 3,159 Э,165 3,129 Э,112 3,0Э2 Э,О73 Э,113 3,124 3,111 3,119 3,043 2,981 3,OOJ Gwтliou 755 775 770 782 778 780 774 736 721 72В 732 741 721 745 715 735 741 Уиппап 1,043 1,028 1,078 1,104 1,107 1,170 1,074 1,049 1,020 1,009 1,008 1,026 1,011 993 931 940 941 Xizang 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 Sum оГдЬоvе 33 В 3 33.755 33_`97 3Jy_5В 331_37 33_�79 32у73 Здбб 32_,193 31.987 32.700 33.060 32.590 цi90 30_,Э35 30.I71 30.744 SSBtotвl 3Э,87Э ЭЭ,755 33,295 ЭЗ,056 Э3,1Э7 33,178 32,070 Э2,266 72,193 31,967 32,700 ЭЭ,Об4 Э2,590 32,090 30,Э55 30,171 30,744 Source Chma Agnculmre Yearbook, var�ous уеагг Table A2.3a-. Northern Rice Area, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 Region/province 1979 1981 1982 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 19W 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1,DDO hectares Noriheint AL2 L7 5- 20 915 1 194 1359 LIL2 1487 1. 42 Lk35 1 72_ 1 777 1647 1 623 1 737 Heilongliang 206 224 239 245 390 507 581 553 604 673 747 778 736 747 835 Liaoning 374 397 406 403 480 501 533 554 553 543 548 557 494 459 473 Jilin 261 254 260 266 324 351 369 380 390 418 433 442 428 418 430 North 279 920 151 1L3 AL7 227 t83 211 Es 1 960 1.040 1.033 2L7 2q6 2-19 Beijing 50 49 41 46 43 40 38 36 36 34 35 32 27 23 23 Tianjin 63 34 23 24 31 35 41 46 49 46 58 56 42 40 49 Hebei 124 132 128 127 128 123 125 133 146 148 150 149 127 118 129 Shanxi 12 9 10 9 9 8 7 7 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 Henan 402 395 395 411 435 412 414 402 427 440 477 508 444 447 451 Shaanxi 156 161 159 161 157 156 156 154 158 159 162 161 162 158 139 Shandong 172 139 IDO 105 112 107 101 88 102 124 148 118 109 114 121 Northwest 175 LL7 L6A L"- L52 162 JL7 2 _ IL9 L 0 L9_4 21 M 193 _28 114 L-- Net Monggol 16 16 16 16 24 27 28 35 53 79 88 94 73 68 79 Gansu 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 Qinghai 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ningxia 49 49 50 50 50 51 53 55 57 60 61 63 63 57 62 Xinjiang 107 89 95 96 74 69 77 83 84 84 80 76 68 63 73 LMA 2 9 9 9 2 2 2 A 2 2 2 2 9 2 2 Shanghai 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jiangsu 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Zhejiang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Anhui 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Central 2 9 2 2 2 2 9 2 9 2 9 9 9 Q Q Jiangxi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hubei 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hunan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 South 2 2 9 2 9 2 2 2 9 9 2 2 9 9 9 Guangdong 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Guangxi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fujian 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hamanb na na na na na Put na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Southwest I I I I I I I 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 Sichuan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Guizhou 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Yunnan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Xizang I I I I I I I 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 Stim of abov 1996 1953 1925 1965 2.261 2,393 2.527 2532 2672 2.824 3003 3050 2776 2725 2 878 a In the 1991 Agnculture Yearbook, interniedialdsingle crop late nee and northern rice are combined under a single heading Histoncally. there is no overlap between intermediatietsingle crop late rice and northern rice growing regions, therefore, 1990 norther nce was derived by following the historical planting pattern b Hainan data available beginning in 1988--pnor years, included in Guangdong Sources Statistics prior to 1991, USDA, ERS, Statistical Bulletin No 844, "Agricultural Statistics of the Peoples Republic of Chms, 1949-90" 1991 - 1995, China Annual Agricultural Statistical Data, various years Table A2.3b: Early Rice Area, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 Region/province 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1,000 hectares Northeast 2 o o g Q 2 2 2 o 2 a 2 0 o Heilongpang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Liaoning 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jilin 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 North 2 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 Beijing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tianjin 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hebei 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Shanxi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Henan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Shaanxi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Shandong 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 thet 2 2 0 2 2 0 0 2 2 2 2 NeiMonggol 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gansu 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Qinghai 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ningxia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Xinjiang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LiiLI .1 ~ I LM 1.885 1.830 1.746 16-6 1.629 LMZ 71~2 02 .320 1.273 1.1 Shanghai 128 119 101 106 113 62 53 36 20 11 8 4 0 0 0 0 Jiangsu 589 516 371 316 248 73 61 46 26 17 13 8 5 2 I I Zhejiang 1,177 1,166 1,089 1.137 1,133 1,050 1,036 1,040 1,033 1,034 1,044 1,039 1,007 862 828 871 Anhui 749 783 721 742 738 700 681 623 582 568 557 523 497 456 444 430 Central 4471. VA74 4.315 12n 4.292 J,W IM 4.08~4 4.088 IJ-9~ 4.180 4.078 3.844 3.505 3.560 3.670 Jiangxi 1,659 1.640 1.631 1.618 1.629 1,571 1,559 1,559 1,553 1,564 1,564 1,507 1,362 1,246 1,292 1,334 Hubei 829 807 761 763 768 729 738 745 731 753 772 758 741 642 634 661 Hunan 1,983 1,927 1.923 1,871 1,895 1,825 1,838 1,779 1,804 1,828 1,844 1,813 1,741 1,618 1,634 1,676 South 4.068 3.962 32890 M21 .9 M 3.459 42 3.444 321 3.496 3.519 2. 3317 29 3.095 3154 Guangdong 2,029 1,975 1,922 1.898 1.932 1,718 1,723 1.703 1,495 1,537 1,536 1.472 1,395 1,264 1,260 1,293 Guangxi 1.280 1,244 1,261 1,251 1,254 1,153 1,158 1,146 1,128 1,178 1,190 1,124 1,154 1.137 1,134 1,148 Fujian 759 743 707 671 676 588 595 596 587 602 607 600 582 513 533 537 Haman na na na na na na na na 161 178 186 185 186 177 168 176 Southsat 240 129 1. 138 111 122 122 96 122 22 22 121 99 84 24 24 Sichuan 162 133 110 89 63 60 56 48 49 46 43 44 43 28 25 22 Guzhou 7 3 2 2 1 I I 1 I I I 2 1 I I I Yunnan 71 54 45 48 47 46 45 48 49 49 52 55 55 55 49 SI Xizang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sum.ofahwn 11422 11,110 10.642 10.51 10.496 9.575 254 9.370 9.220 2.265 94l 9.134 8.769 7.999 8002 8.200 Hainan data available beginning in 1988-prior years, included in Guangdong Sources Statistics prior to 1991, USDA, ERS, Statistical Bulletin No 844, 'Agricultural Statistics of the Peoples Republic of China, 1949-90* 1991 - 1995, China Annual Agncultural Statistical Data, vanious years Table A2.3c: Intermediate and Single Crop Late Rice Area, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 1979 1981 1982 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1,000 hectares Northeast 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 2 0 2 2 0 0 2 2 Heitongiang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Liaoning 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jiin 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 North 0 0 0 0 2 Q 2 2 0 q 2 2 0 0 Q Beging 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tianjin 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hebei 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Shanxi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3864 3.759 3.IM 4.025 3.995 4.098 2.696 2.994 2.830 3 175 195 209 216 220 218 2 3 3 8 2,280 2,306 2,363 2.407 2.282 2,413 1,497 1.409 1,481 2 185 195 199 192 185 209 298 332 301 5 1,001 1,063 1,140 1,210 1,208 1,258 899 1,240 1,044 0 1.744 1.74 1.747 1.722 1.717 L.667 1.7U3 1.764 t.22Z 57 251 254 246 240 236 225 234 243 233 83 984 985 1,004 998 969 964 985 996 979 99 508 506 498 484 512 478 516 525 510 7 4 M59 505 53 70 482 480 71 58 49 30 28 7 34 151 0 0 0 81 183 177 174 166 164 153 146 143 135 07 309 313 312 309 313 324 336 333 335 na na 21 24 24 21 42 0 4 0 Sotws -19 462 40 4.691 4. 733 4.678 4.695 4.454 4.511 J. Sichuan 2,688 2,930 2.951 3.036 3,011 3.002 2,933 2,972 3.021 3,037 3,022 3,032 2,965 2,932 2,960 Guizhou 740 767 777 775 772 735 720 726 731 740 718 743 708 734 739 Yunnan 922 1,008 1,029 1,031 1,002 982 949 935 939 955 938 920 781 844 857 Xizang 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 S.mofaboe 8.31 9.24 1015 Jq. 10.528 10,s 19,sM 10678 10888 10.984 10,82Z 11.130 9.367 9.738 9.590 a, In the 1991 Agriculture Yearbook. ntermediatelsingle crop late rice and northern rice are combined under a sngle heading Histoncally, there is no overlap between ntermediate/single crop late rice and northern rice growing regions, therefore, 1990 imtermediate/single crop nce was denved by following the historical planting pattern b> Hainan data available beginning in 1988--prior years, included in Guangdong Sources Statistics prior to 1991, USDA, ERS. Statistical Bulletn No 844, "Agriclturail Statistics of the Peoples Republic of Chma, 1949-90* 1991 - 1995, China Annual Agricultural Statistical Data, various years Table A2.3d: Double Crop Late Rice Area, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 Region/province 1979 1981 1982 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1,000 hectares Nreast 92 9 9 9 0 0 Q Heilongiiang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Liaoning 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jilin 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N91f9 9 9 0 0 0 0 2 9 0 2 0 0 8 0 Beijing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tiaiin 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hebei 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Shanxi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Henan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Shaanxi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Shandong 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Northwest 9 9 0 0 8 0 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 8 8 NeiMonggol 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gansu 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Qinghai 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ningxia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Xiujiang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lii2.713 2.254 =4Z a L 1903 1.989 1.372 12762 L2M 1.757 1.757 1.640 2.784 2.299 2623 Shanghai 179 134 143 154 92 89 65 45 38 30 24 17 213 207 207 Jiangsu 666 397 330 265 94 84 73 52 40 34 61 30 780 752 769 I Zhejiang 1,184 1,164 1,204 1,201 1,151 1,138 1,151 1,126 1,147 1,148 1,154 1,103 975 915 966 Anhui 684 558 545 492 566 578 584 539 565 545 518 490 816 424 682 Central 4.410 5 4 4.262 4265d 4.254 4.199 IM 4.397 4.280 4.121 4.028 4.8 4.15 Jiangxi 1,435 1,432 1.424 1,421 1,435 1,435 1,459 1,403 1,488 1,488 1.411 1,394 1,386 1404 1,448 Hubei 913 807 817 826 804 819 828 811 849 866 896 833 751 742 769 Hunan 2,062 2,013 1,996 2,014 1.926 1.990 1.967 1.984 2,029 2,042 1.973 1,970 1,891 1882 1.898 South 4.289 4.087 4.030 3.959 3.553 3M8 3 3.520 3.551 M 3.532 3.246 3.249 3.308 3.296 Gunngdong 2,223 2,078 2,056 2,015 1,832 1.825 1.803 1,593 1,615 1,633 1,559 1,330 1,366 1411 1,406 Guangxi 1,366 1.326 1,313 1,291 1,139 1.180 1,176 1,157 1,141 1,188 1,187 1,159 1.135 1141 1.137 Fujian 700 683 661 653 582 582 589 584 595 596 580 571 534 537 534 Hainan na na na na no na na 185 201 204 206 186 214 219 218 Soulilhes 21 112 MA 290 I 22 14 7 68 64 69 63 151 72 SM Sichuan 154 87 84 60 58 54 50 51 47 44 46 44 50 25 21 Guizhou 9 1 3 1 1 0 1 1 1 i 2 1 7 1 1 Yunnan 50 26 27 29 27 22 24 25 20 19 18 18 95 47 33 Xizang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sim.ohabovz 11625 10,202 10.603 10.424 9.707 2722 9 9.558 9.776 9.39 9.635 9.146 10.21 9.707 10089 Sources Statistics prior to 1991, USDA, ERS, Statistical Bulletin No 844, "Agricultural Statistics of the Peoples Republic of China, 1949-90* 1991 - 1995, China Annual Agricultural Statistical Data, various years ТаЫе А2.4: СОгп Агеа, Ьу Region апд PrOVince, Chma, 1979-95 Reg�on/ргоипсе 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 198В 1989 1990 1991 1992 199Э 1994 1995 п.ооо ьа�геs> Northeдal 4_ 948 4.982 1.396 �,� 4.576 о0 1.455 �,9,1_7 39 133 5,2о0 5,753 51 83 5.784 232 3�529 6�273 Hei1on81iang 1,961 1.884 1,577 1,363 1.642 1.920 1.577 1.689 1.976 1,827 1,907 2J69 2.230 2.166 1.777 1964 2.411 Liaomng 1.Э92 1.416 1,268 1.156 1.220 1,231 1.198 1.258 1.341 1,318 1,313 1.366 1.372 1,364 1,4I6 1.465 1.518 1дт 1.596 1,682 1.551 1,605 1,715 1.855 1.680 1.990 2.122 1.9В7 1.9В3 2.2Ю 2.280 2,234 2.039 2.100 2,I44 orlh 8581 В319 g.213 � 7�867 7329 7.302 7•909 � 7 9 6 8.101 670 8i_87 g,309 8•553 8.179 8_`ВО Bealmg 182 197 198 197 201 206 217 216 223 222 219 224 223 224 2I8 206 208 Тiапlи 158 169 181 1В9 177 1S7 136 147 153 146 152 1Ы I52 151 156 15S 159 Hebei 2.306 2.341 2.285 2,073 2.002 1.В17 1.749 L900 1,983 1.945 1,995 2,041 2А56 L987 2.129 2,104 2.291 Shanx� 764 742 646 594 5ВЭ 607 497 567 ЫВ 576 606 ЬЭ7 6Э8 638 652 664 768 Нелап 1,698 1,680 1,697 1,598 1,768 1,521 1,664 1,885 1,937 1,В34 2,035 2,177 2,088 1,964 1,957 1,872 1,958 Shвanxi 1,0Э7 1,077 1,007 968 944 951 951 950 1,016 940 996 1,025 1,028 1,000 1,001 1,024 903 Shвndong 2,136 2,143 2,201 2,167 2,192 2,070 2,088 2,244 2,315 2,324 2,398 2,405 2,40Э 2,Э46 2,440 2,455 2,695 hw 1.597 1.555 1�20 l,271 1.225 1.173 1.105 1.303 1s 96 1i67 1.492 93 1�649 1•601 1.545 1•617 1_�73 Ne� Monggol 670 65Э 592 505 494 464 434 5В8 660 669 696 774 611 775 762 8Эб 992 Gansu 309 Э18 700 267 241 227 218 23Э 253 290 289 300 322 Э20 309 314 346 Qmghв� 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nиgx�a 21 28 24 20 21 Э2 35 46 63 75 74 76 79 76 76 79 95 Xmliang 597 556 503 482 469 450 418 436 420 434 434 442 437 4Э0 396 Э88 439 1 �@LS L 625 665 676 617 658 735 7� 837 815 890 � � 9� � 994 1_`62 -� Shanghai 13 10 6 7 6 5 6 10 10 8 9 10 10 8 В 9 В � 1�an8su 410 ЗВЬ 445 483 457 431 460 483 496 475 501 461 426 421 472 459 462 � 1 2hel�ang 98 бб 65 63 52 47 45 42 41 43 46 48 48 47 40 36 39 Апhи 198 164 149 123 132 175 224 246 291 268 Э34 415 429 436 462 490 552 п г 577 561 555 S�5 S,4Q S�},S }�} � S,.J� S0,_3 S�1 �20 566 � 512 52I 573 hangxt 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 7 6 12 Э2 2В 19 14 41 НиЬе� 412 407 416 428 41В 4 П 374 382 394 384 389 386 395 376 366 374 394 нипап 1sь w6 1зг ио пь 11ь 1ог 1оа из 11г ns 1гг 139 141 127 иг 1зв a�4i1L� 613 � � 589 � � � 523 � 593 ! 627 626 Ь� Ь� 653 662 Guangdoпg 45 46 43 42 39 40 39 42 45 18 51 57 57 58 52 58 бб Guaпgxi 566 535 569 546 521 500 476 478 505 531 533 537 534 516 527 55Э 550 Fupan 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 15 14 19 19 19 23 28 2В 30 Натап пв па пв па na па па па па 11 12 14 15 18 I5 16 17 1hw 3.397 J.431 31560 � 3�409 1�94 3_�97 3.175 217 196 3,213 01 3.350 3�78 3�48 3,Э57 3.35Э Sichuan 1.646 1.601 1,790 1,767 1,716 1.667 1,583 1.618 1,650 1b54 1.663 1.712 1.749 IJ23 1.706 1.7I1 1.716 Gwгhou 691 718 683 667 672 650 592 618 611 595 599 600 620 603 606 644 6q7 Уиппап 1.060 1.111 1,087 1.048 1.019 975 920 937 953 945 979 990 978 950 9Э4 999 988 Xiung 0 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 ) 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Snm of aбove 20.133 20,087 19.425 18.508 18.821 18�537 17.694 19.122 20312 19.692 20,Зц 21.401 21.573 21_`47 20у94 1 152 22у76 SSB total 20.1ЭЭ 20.087 19.425 1В.543 18.824 18,537 П,б94 19,124 20,212 19,692 20.353 21.401 21.574 21.044 20.694 21.152 22.776 Source Chma Agnwlture Yearbook, vanous years ТаЫе А2.5: Sorghum Сгор Areas, Ьу Region апд Province, China, 1979-95 Reg�on/provmce 1979 1980 1981 1982 198Э 19В4 1985 1986 1987 19В8 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 (1000 ha) г в L�� А,� L� А.�49 L 2`3 j 1, 63 7�? L 7?Ь L � � Ь�? 601 633 643 � He�1on81ian 3Э7 271 295 290 Э14 297 145 t75 17Э 172 175 159 1ЭЬ 141 166 162 134 L�aomng 622 558 595 646 656 594 417 441 448 451 420 395 368 342 326 322 308 J�1m 2В2 2Э4 276 Э1Э ЗОЗ 276 200 164 135 152 150 124 108 I18 141 160 128 noпh 1.321 4.127 � у�а р� e,g � 7оо 7о8 Ьге sэз sз1 льв 4os 4оз 9as 3s7 Bei�mg 21 17 10 15 13 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 4 5 Э Tian�m 65 53 55 60 65 59 41 43 43 40 ЭЬ Э7 2В 23 24 Э2 29 НеЬе� 445 384 Э08 34l 333 264 217 222 221 191 170 167 142 116 I18 1Э2 I05 5hanx� 267 235 203 232 215 20) 179 163 18В 1В7 15) 169 160 147 146 1Э7 117 Henan 180 139 120 1Эб 123 116 107 100 9t бб 54 48 39 31 24 28 21 Shaыuu 76 69 62 бб 53 50 45 42 44 47 40 l8 37 33 ЭЬ 33 26 Shandong 266 234 178 146 124 115 149 12Э II5 90 74 68 58 51 52 48 46 о w 327 27Q 26� 2� 91 3�! 3� L L 178 �8( 185 ,(75 162 J69 187 �7g Ne� Mongol 208 166 1В1 214 227 190 158 13Э 138 126 132 134 127 112 115 142 140 Gansu 45 41 Э8 36 31 26 23 21 24 31 29 28 30 28 27 25 19 Qmgha� 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nт19ив 9 7 6 Э 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 Xm�iang 65 54 41 41 Э1 25 21 18 16 18 19 22 17 21 26 20 14 1 �93L 1.� !�6 !.L � � $4 Z 1 77 63 � �1 ё: Е4 � 19 S.1 1� Shвnghai 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 � hangsu 21 16 17 16 19 9 12 16 12 I1 4 4 2 2 1 1 1 1 Zhe��ang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Anhui 137 106 102 93 73 71 5В 61 65 52 40 33 23 2Э 21 17 10 п г � ?Ь � � E.L 1:Z � iR ?:4 L 1� 15 � L 16 12 j� Laлgxi 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 НиЬе� 18 14 1Э 1Э 10 15 12 10 10 8 8 Ь 5 4 5 5 4 Нипап 15 11 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 7 9 �!_Ь с � 4 4 4 � 4 5 � � б � б i Z а ч гп,апедопе з 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 о о о 1 о о о Guangxi 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 З 4 Fyjian 1 1 1 1 I 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 Э 4 4 4 5 Натап па na па па па пв пе пв па 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 $oulhwest 85 79 9� L L !1� Ll LS L L 1� 23 ЧО 86 � 85 90 Sichuвn 7Э ЬЬ 8I 92 86 99 I14 101 98 94 82 76 71 66 68 65 ЬЬ GиiтЛои 7 7 9 9 9 12 12 16 17 I9 17 13 15 15 21 20 21 Уиппап 5 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 0 4 )(izалg 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sum of вbove 3,172 2,692 �,§1Q j.78� t�.7ПZ 2� l+9� LЯZ� 86 78 !'630 5у? 1�Ч0 j�99 1 34 1�7_ЬЧ 2 Ь SSB wtal Э,172 2,693 2,610 2,78Э 2,707 2,450 1,9Э7 1,876 1,864 1,784 1,630 1,545 1,ЭВ8 1,299 1,742 1,Эб9 1,216 Sоигос Сhиа Agnalture Yearbook, vanous years ТаЫе А2.б: Mi11et Сгор Areas, Ьу RegiOn апд Province, China, 1979-95 Region/pmvma 1979 1980 1981 1982 198Э 1964 1985 1986 19В7 1988 1989 Ю90 1991 1992 199Э 1994 1995 (1000 ha) еда !.,?16 >� L.L� !�L� � l..Ji 97� 8� б� ,55� �Q¢ i� з58 1�6 303 2Ь� �5 Ha1on81ian 854 769 769 723 748 633 493 410 308 245 213 175 140 132 126 I08 88 L�aon�ng 205 190 211 272 274 255 210 206 189 179 177 169 147 120 120 109 103 1�1и 457 416 4Э1 419 424 326 276 218 157 1З2 114 89 71 Ы 57 48 34 N9!!1S L�� y8U6 !`69 89 !i � з l.9�Z ! 7ь д7 � !.� !.� � !� 1�2 _86 �1 Ь! ! 1` !� � Beymg 14 12 12 13 14 13 14 12 9 8 7 Ь 5 5 4 4 4 Тiапlи 1i 12 11 11 13 15 16 I4 11 9 7 7 6 4 3 3 2 Hebei 554 549 592 700 688 706 684 6Э1 ЬОЭ 572 597 549 510 429 469 420 379 Shanxi 557 551 521 543 5l9 501 396 361 386 382 0 382 366 345 349 328 299 Непап 299 264 262 268 268 257 215 195 178 175 159 149 127 122 110 10I 113 Shaвnxi 242 24В 227 206 2I0 195 177 172 166 160 154 156 150 149 135 130 99 Shалdong 214 169 145 150 181 270 245 209 179 158 I47 140 122 109 114 100 94 rt w 709 � б� 702 693 636 �69 5�111 479 1� 433 43з 409 3� 324 303 290 Na Mongol 564 502 534 570 559 519 463 414 387 385 374 Э56 334 285 258 233 237 Gansu 107 109 99 99 97 87 76 67 ЬЬ 6Э 56 55 52 Ы 49 50 36 Qmghai 0 0 0 0 0 о 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nиgxia 30 33 Э5 ЭО 33 29 28 25 24 25 2Э 22 22 24 16 19 14 Xиliang В 5 Э Э 4 3 2 ! 2 1 0 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 е�ц iз !о 7 � } ;< 1 ! ! ! 4 4 4 fl � о о � snanel,e, о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о р0 пап�и 1 1 о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о 1 гьоl�апе о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о Anhw 1г 9 7 s з з г 1 1 t о о о о г о о Cent а1 ,1,_S 10 (0 JO 17 12 12 !] � 9 !I. 8 14 6 7 6 6 liалgxi 3 1 1 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 НиЬп 12 8 9 8 14 9 9 10 8 7 9 8 12 5 7 6 6 Нипвп 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 $и� 1hi !�' >4 1..L 8 7 5 4 4 4 ? 9 $ Z � Ь 7 5 Guangdoпg 9 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 Guangп� 6 9 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 7 Ь 5 4 4 5 4 Fщ�ап 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 На�пвп па па па па па па па пв па 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 иг р а ч 8 � а 4 � в s Z е � е � > ? s��nuan о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о Gwzhou 9 8 9 Н 7 В Ь 7 Ь 5 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 Уиппап 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Xiтang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Snm of above �,l71 3�872 7_ 889 4�36 4,086 3.797 3�3_19 2.979 � 2.51♦ 2у0_57 2.278 2•081 1.867 1_ 8`3 l�7� 5 SSBtoiel 4,173 Э.872 3,889 4Д39 4.087 1.797 3,Э18 2.980 2.668 2.513 2.396 2.278 2,081 1.867 1.812 1.672 1.52Э 5оигсе Сhиа Agnwlture Yearbooks, vanous years ТаЫе А2.7: Агеа Of "Other" Grains and Pulses, Ьу RegiOn апд Province, Cdina, 1979-95 Reg�on/ргоипсе 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 19В4 1985 1986 1987 1988 19В9 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 сl.ооо n«1а�« > Norlheaat �s 9�в s,� �12 �41 ug 942 9�z 4i4 заа �26 sз � зо7 з,.д� sм � Halongliang 234 212 20В 209 235 221 165 16В 174 174 186 166 141 173 110 ЭОЬ 168 Liaonиg 112 115 133 136 135 134 108 134 133 I13 120 111 102 93 95 95 83 1�1и 16В 1Ы 179 17Э 191 1В1 150 115 97 101 1I7 76 74 81 117 143 92 North 4•964 4,697 4.940 4,617 4•528 1�116 4.ОЗа 4�055 4�017 3j%7 4.375 3,8з7 3.555 з,бб3 3_ б,_35 3�819 з�б53 Be�1mg 685 573 7Ы 727 691 638 588 642 565 546 532 578 558 576 Ы9 5В9 537 Tiвn�in 546 561 730 ЬЭЬ Ы 3 588 540 527 524 53В 979 542 483 501 529 526 502 Hebei 43 41 41 45 39 34 33 29 23 20 20 17 14 12 I4 11 9 Shanxi 611 566 541 462 452 435 416 416 440 457 454 442 400 421 411 426 430 Henan 467 зв7 зы зы зв7 ао7 з97 звб зв1 агг 421 ззs г91 г4а zs7 г41 19ь Sheanxi 2.536 2.4Ы 2.446 2.300 2,292 2.272 2.046 2.0ЭЬ 2.070 1,973 1.961 1.915 1,803 1,905 1.818 2.04В 1,973 Shandong 76 69 Ы 64 53 42 18 20 1Э 11 9 8 8 7 7 8 6 NoAhwnt 3,ia� 3.l�1 � 3�44 � 3,3I� 3�!!� 6.0?б F,�Z4 L.9� L261 L91.� l,8�2 1,?4� 1..aL �4$ L?1_ Nei Mongol В05 791 742 691 704 665 675 652 721 68В 662 673 628 718 668 731 778 Gansu 1,172 1,164 1,202 1,181 1,157 1,200 970 993 919 8В1 894 831 765 720 756 В56 767 Qingha� 108 79 67 S6 55 48 51 49 59 77 83 84 72 60 77 116 64 Ningxie 182 174 171 157 151 156 155 154 152 149 152 153 149 143 143 144 141 X�n��eng 269 253 264 214 226 20Э 195 188 219 177 171 174 169 264 173 20I 204 1 Е!ц 1;� �а S,s�7 l,�б !„ �! l�64 42 l,266 !,� l�� 1�s7 1.190 !. 22 1`23 986 943 936 � Shanghai 306 29В 262 297 340 363 302 266 Э2Э 3I2 276 296 Э04 283 198 I82 184 � liangsu 917 1,343 9Э7 В56 831 794 759 682 740 706 618 578 665 560 524 571 524 1 Zheliang 110 , 12В 111 114 13S 142 103 75 74 79 74 71 70 бб 56 ЬО 57 Anhw 295 259 268 268 27S 270 2Ы 24Э 258 337 289 246 2В3 214 208 130 172 п г 7аа ss� .�з7 �зs � s� s�t � вцi 4ь1, 4as аа е�о 4за es1 и7 4�. liangкi 229 155 160 182 196 198 161 126 124 122 143 140 150 153 149 134 127 НиЬа 62 37 38 42 42 39 39 38 42 45 50 54 Ы 73 83 86 86 Нипап 418 3Ы 340 311 Э26 327 Э21 ЭОЗ 295 294 272 2S4 259 212 219 217 199 $9!!!h � �4 ZL �J? 121! L 1.4.L !.L L L L 1Z� 1L 1Z 1?5 164 Ё'?о Guangdong 69 82 91 92 74 64 55 52 54 47 50 55 55 51 50 20 56 Guangкi 248 267 146 90 78 68 56 59 54 58 75 64 65 68 77 63 97 Fщian 32 27 Э3 Э4 41 33 30 29 42 44 42 46 48 48 46 54 57 Наiпал 2 10 9 9 11 2I 7 17 SOqtI1W[5( 20�Ьз 2�648 t�? l�7з 17`9 1�1•! !Ь`3 40 1�6Z 1.62 L676 L664 l,7UЧ 1�_96 1.�а? l..Z03 L681 Sichuan 1,059 1,747 938 882 В51 81В 7Э4 712 703 702 6В5 661 670 660 660 643 637 Guizhou 228 I86 179 168 177 181 I68 172 190 196 201 204 217 213 212 221 224 Уиппвп 636 579 567 572 584 560 563 607 637 651 бб7 679 Ь77 678 668 705 690 X�zang 140 1Э7 145 151 147 142 150 149 147 146 123 120 144 145 144 134 131 Sum оГ вЬоvе 1ё 7� 1� L 1`з 11•491 �1.17а 11�2� L399 10.�30 LJ�O 1у06а 10. 37 9�s� 9��ц Pi1! 9_�о9 �$ 2�?� 5SB Wta1 Source China Agnculture Yearбook, vanous уеаг: Table A2.8: Soybean Area by Region and Province, China 197%-95 Region/Province 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 (1000 hectares) Norlbetist 2.751 L§59 9 2.564 3,038 3.096 3.291 IM Un 2.991 .9 1 2900 3941 3.613 3.164 Heilongpiang 1,665 1,630 1,800 2,136 1,693 1.795 2,167 2,197 2,400 2,429 2.264 2,079 2,094 2160 3,072 2,789 2,513 Liaoning 509 473 461 459 409 372 393 410 395 391 370 349 326 302 325 319 273 Jilin 577 556 605 587 Soo 397 478 489 486 545 537 464 431 438 544 505 379 North 2,122 2.256 2.566 2AO6 Z 429 2.404 L 3 6 2.089 1.933 1.902 2.509 2 2.090 2.235 2.086 2.101 U ad-2 so Beijing 8 8 8 9 9 8 10 10 13 11 14 12 10 9 11 t5 U Tianjin 21 23 25 23 24 26 31 38 42 42 47 45 49 54 70 59 52 Hebei 276 261 290 272 262 269 301 370 383 389 416 403 431 419 628 576 481 Shanxi 129 139 129 159 174 161 166 199 223 221 245 252 238 233 280 283 230 Henan 859 919 1,194 1,145 1,040 943 880 973 910 675 673 640 515 499 619 656 559 Shaanxi 195 212 201 193 214 196 202 217 251 273 280 288 287 275 301 345 241 Shandong 634 695 719 505 512 483 511 621 583 521 487 448 403 414 600 572 515 Northwest U5 239 L56 20 297 167 297 us- V-1 IH 4m IH !L3 !L84 2 96 95 Net Mongol 183 171 194 236 219 193 219 264 275 311 318 301 301 357 571 604 557 Gansu 32 31 33 34 38 41 47 52 54 55 53 61 60 70 86 90 70 Qinghai 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ningxia 22 21 16 20 21 20 22 23 30 33 34 39 38 41 45 44 39 Xinjiang 15 ts 13 Is 19 0 9 9 11 15 20 13 14 16 40 58 29 Em 960 W 1.136 IA9 LM L2292 1-026 LW 1-100 20 2m M 160 691 877 MA w Shanghai 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 4 5 7 6 5 5 5 8 8 7 Ln 0 Jiangsu 240 236 325 338 312 286 318 350 352 318 309 245 178 192 271 255 201 1 Zhejiang 65 70 71 74 62 61 60 64 68 68 70 66 64 63 77 86 86 Anhui 653 611 738 781 775 750 646 704 674 573 590 523 313 421 522 505 441 4L6 152 !L94 484 IL9 - !L4 !115- M-6 - 566 Central m !L0 423 45-2 Ai9 !L93 - 465 592 Jiangxi 126 115 123 140 135 132 136 138 135 131 138 138 139 148 173 166 163 Hubei 224 174 161 162 157 159 168 183 177 167 174 165 151 140 182 201 188 Hunan 132 131 139 164 160 161 165 173 172 172 182 182 185 177 201 215 215 !!17 Wo 472 4AI !L9 !L25 409 JL3 M5 -5 im 4L7 02 411 Guangdong 130 139 140 154 139 136 124 126 123 115 116 115 109 105 107 105 104 Guangxi 153 173 218 273 259 230 211 220 201 185 204 213 206 199 225 250 253 Fujian 50 58 79 83 75 76 74 79 85 86 87 90 92 95 99 103 107 Hainan na na na Its na na na na na 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 Southwest 246 125 IL 46 59 7_8 V9 M 97 6 4J7 9A 82 !L7 !L-5 - 1 1 2- L 291 AL Sichuan 191 171 172 171 175 183 193 198 199 194 191 192 189 182 183 189 196 Guizhou 108 109 119 121 119 128 122 121 133 131 130 126 128 122 127 131 131 Yunnan 47 44 48 54 64 67 64 64 65 67 71 74 77 78 82 86 99 Xizang 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 23 25 0 0 0 0 Sum of above LL4-6 U96 8.024 8.412 7 568 7.298 7719 8.296 L443 3.120 8057 7.560 7.040 7.221 9454 9222 8 126 SSB total 7,247 7,187 8,024 8,419 7.567 7,296 7,718 8,295 8,445 8,120 8,057 7,560 7,041 7,221 9,454 9,222 8,127 Source SSB, China Agriculture Yearbook, (various issues) ТаЫе А2.9: ТиЬег Агеа, Ьу Region аод Province, China,1979-95 Regiodproиnce 1979 1960 1981 1982 1983 1964 1985 1986 1987 I988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1997 1994 1995 (1,000 hectara) N9�ftS>!8! 4.L �k! 348 360 �J. i9� � �..б.$ •�J. L � �Z ?� �9.1 4� 4.�Q 128 Hedon8liang 267 236 219 226 261 275 221 209 214 247 233 218 20) 223 235 222 275 Liaomng 62 42 40 41 54 бб 72 бб 64 71 74 74 79 88 100 96 103 hhn 91 85 90 93 106 10I 104 93 В7 91 89 75 74 79 88 92 90 N9lih 3,.,�9 Q },�J.L ,7.,'б� �0� },059 j,�Q� 2•657 2i0 2,667 69 2.614 2s5ц �51 2i63 2�68 2й32 2.393 Beqmg 12 IO 8 7 7 8 11 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 Tianlm 8 7 7 9 8 10 6 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 7 НеЬе� 528 474 425 44I 455 458 474 447 457 462 450 434 424 408 426 408 407 Shanxi 268 25Э 236 253 275 294 255 253 274 295 289 283 279 289 294 290 312 Непап 1,274 1,127 1,006 899 970 В51 767 787 767 805 759 746 708 725 719 649 699 Shaanxi 389 366 337 314 337 337 Э25 Э27 ЭЗ8 347 338 735 Э77 761 360 364 770 Shandong 1.461 1.275 1.150 1,081 1.007 927 821 816 817 771 766 747 692 670 659 Ы 1 597 hw � 63Q ¢7� ,S,j} �8j ,S.¢Z 'S,�Q S�S ,58� 3¢j Р7�Т §�7 620 � 6�j 65S 769 Ne� Mongol 277 252 2Э2 243 254 246 227 225 229 252 247 246 239 250 26Э 253 355 Gansu 266 2Ы 251 250 251 246 246 250 271 290 287 294 293 305 297 ЭО8 Э14 Qmghai 37 ЭЬ Э1 27 29 ЗО 71 72 71 32 34 34 75 Э7 37 38 36 Nmgxia 68 6Э 48 42 38 37 76 35 44 48 46 44 45 44 45 46 53 Xmliang 2Э 16 11 11 9 8 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 11 10 10 9 Е_р�[ Э�8 �� 1�237 1.165 1.212 1.130 1�ц 1�70 1.076 j,097 j,Qi9 1.019 9� Q� 914 8�6 856 1 � Shangha� 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 и liangsu 397 332 375 326 316 295 282 275 266 251 248 222 215 197 201 180 167 � Zheliang 116 144 154 156 150 145 138 137 141 137 148 155 156 151 145 145 160 � Anhw 848 722 728 687 746 690 613 658 669 703 644 643 593 570 568 530 526 Сепlгаl р40 867 � $Qj jp,?1 L9 ]�S,Q 7�7 765 � 837 862 905 896 89i Q17 915 Jiangxi 121 108 109 109 104 105 106 105 107 11Э 120 12В 140 142 145 151 144 Hubei 421 Э87 Э71 377 376 368 Э54 358 Э53 769 369 392 402 393 3В4 396 Э98 Нипап 398 372 344 Э21 712 296 290 294 305 313 328 Э42 36Э 361 762 371 Э74 S9Si� LQ9� L�� 1.аП�.4 1iu J.B�9 I�,� LJ.� J.0`В l�82 ОЬ 1�129 LLz9 L193 LL А�2�5 1.315 1у_22 Guangdong 687 647 616 624 622 605 583 594 600 484 496 501 498 474 454 532 519 Guanlpn 187 164 176 230 216 211 216 237 258 250 252 24В 262 253 271 308 313 Fщtan 224 253 242 2Э8 271 221 2I6 217 224 225 268 287 306 317 322 734 Э47 Натап па па па па па па па па па 109 114 I23 127 135 I68 142 143 и1Ь 2 2 2�2ц 2у_17 2.365 2.270 2, 0( 2.172 2.246 2.332 � 2•460 2.ц3 2•590 2�571 2�бц 2.783 2.836 Sи:huan 1,990 1,734 1,92Э 1,В70 1,761 1,67Э 1,676 1,655 1,719 1,728 I,788 1,842 1,870 1,859 1,901 1,971 1,995 Gwzhou 305 282 267 272 284 299 Э04 346 Э57 373 400 410 4Э1 422 458 503 5Э7 Уиппап 2Э2 237 227 223 225 227 230 24Э 255 260 270 280 289 289 298 309 ЗОЬ Xiтang 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 Sum оГ aбove 10•952 9.88В 9.620 9у_бб 9j�04 8.991 ¢,5j3 В_`85 8.868 9� 9�097 9.121 9�078 9_ 055 9,гго 9.270 9�18 SSBtotвl 10,952 9,8В8 9,620 9,763 9,402 8,988 8,572 8,685 В,Вб8 9,054 9,097 9,121 9,078 9,057 9,220 9,270 9,518 Source Chma A1SncLlwre Yearbook, various years Note Both sweet potatoes апд tnsh (wh�re) potatoes аге тсlидед 1п гесеп[ years, бoth taro апд cauava wете ехдидед Ггот йе гиЬег category -152- Table A2. 10: Area in Fruit Orchards, by Region and Province, China, 1984-95 Region/province 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1,000 hectares Northeas 320 25 381 JL8 473 466 4 4 475 488 L7 Mo 599 Heilongpang 19 is 17 19 25 14 19 23 29 22 45 56 Liaoning 281 289 340 289 404 398 390 391 391 420 435 450 Jilin 20 21 24 30 44 54 55 61 68 75 80 94 North 177 1.150 1.592 1.925 2.149 2.356 2.069 2.035 J.M 2.600 3.138 3.423 BeUing 24 28 31 37 43 46 48 50 51 52 59 60 Tianjin 14 17 22 28 31 31 29 29 28 29 32 34 Hebei 256 352 470 567 650 831 627 601 636 731 942 983 Shanxi 82 111 137 164 187 188 185 192 214 243 273 286 Henan 114 159 238 276 297 302 234 215 228 279 372 440 Shaanxi 99 110 165 219 262 289 305 334 380 478 607 685 Shandong 288 373 529 634 679 669 641 614 761 788 853 935 Northwes 132 161 207 272 329 343 264 168 M M2 $07 545.8 Nei Monggol 24 24 23 26 30 30 36 39 43 60 66 71 Gansu 35 46 69 109 144 154 165 170 186 217 247 281 Qinghai 3 3 5 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Ningxia 7 8 12 15 20 23 27 28 30 32 36 38 Xinjiang 63 80 98 115 129 130 130 125 125 134 152 150 East 167 20 294 278 4L4 423 A" 409 !L7 13-0 573 505.9 Shanghai 4 5 8 9 10 9 9 9 10 13 14 13 Jiangsu 38 47 70 101 124 111 105 101 112 128 173 158 Zhejiang 99 124 166 202 219 223 222 226 216 210 230 237 Anhui 26 29 50 66 81 80 78 73 69 79 104 98 Central M 8 10_5 20 01 m 372 B7 449 4m 55-2 !L59- 724.2 Jiangxi 42 43 53 63 75 82 88 107 107 137 194 238 Hubei 58 66 79 94 102 112 118 129 124 165 194 200 Hunan 88 96 114 144 162 178 191 213 223 250 271 286 529h 363 488 7 LO 931 1.047 1.091 1.134 1.235 LM 1.471 1.410 1.818 Guangdong 192 282 440 587 619 639 645 658 699 682 485 736 Guangxi 56 65 86 116 133 133 154 188 259 281 355 468 Fujian 115 141 184 228 251 278 298 355 416 459 505 532 Hainan 44 41 37 34 37 49 65 81 Southwest m ZU 44 265 297 IL8 139 350 m M7 !L58 82 Sichuan 127 148 175 193 214 226 238 241 247 271 287 296 Guizhou 7 8 15 14 18 21 23 26 30 36 41 41 Yunnan 37 45 53 57 63 70 77 82 93 109 128 144 Xizang I I 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 Sum of abov 2.219 2.736 3.674 1 0 5.068 5.369 5J 81 5.321 5.819 6.436 7.253 8.098 SSB total 2,219 2,736 3,672 4,508 5,066 5,372 5,179 5,318 5,818 6,435 7,264 8,098 ТаЫе А 1 11 VegetaЫe апд Ме1ап Агеа, Ьу Reglon апд PrOVlnce 1984-95 Reg�on/ргоvтьс 1984 1985 19ВЬ 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 199Э 1994 1995 1984 I985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Vegetaбa - 1000 hecteres Ме1ого - 1000 hectares Norlheяat 657 � 6/3 ц� 673 б� � � б¢} 792 L � 83 I� 110 Z06 112 � 55 5�. 69 88 �0 �б Hn1on81iang 27Э 249 251 228 24В 245 230 218 234 З U 263 293 59 77 77 76 71 76 34 Э1 3В 50 50 50 Liaonmg 219 217 231 2Э4 241 248 253 255 268 295 318 Э31 7 16 12 11 17 17 6 7 Ь 11 12 14 1дт 165 162 161 168 183 179 174 181 181 185 I86 195 17 29 21 19 24 26 15 15 25 27 28 32 N9llh ОЬ 1�1!! 1�J? 3 1�76 S3 !�il1 L4>:1 l..� �$ � ë,3Z ëSi �$Q �S � � � � Е� 301 373 4L � Begmg 58 54 58 60 63 68 70 73 75 78 91 91 7 9 11 9 10 8 Ь 5 5 5 Ь 5 Tianlm 39 38 44 45 52 55 55 57 62 бб 76 80 7 10 10 10 I2 9 Ь 4 4 5 5 4 НеЬе� 2Э1 2Ы 285 284 306 315 266 289 306 750 378 409 55 83 94 87 91 67 45 51 52 58 54 53 Shanкi 106 105 112 11Э 113 117 111 I10 124 133 142 157 27 3Э 44 Э8 47 31 20 24 27 27 26 25 Непвл 247 295 334 Э58 411 418 409 396 419 466 617 607 82 125 176 157 150 111 81 76 97 171 136 146 Shввnxi 102 122 1Э4 138 160 I68 146 144 146 152 14Э 174 12 31 55 45 45 ЭО 2Э ЭЗ 33 39 32 28 Shandong 279 307 Э48 Э54 370 391 362 394 447 636 ВЗ5 856 62 В9 121 103 99 80 59 бб 83 108 I53 119 Northweel Z66 180 j10 02 6•7; � 12 0.73 7� 201.8 �39.3 258•9 62 3.89 ;17.31 �9 Q7 J�0 91.513 g6.133 68�067 56 5� 69.2 677 6,s7 58,_97 Ne� Mongol 61 58 67 63 Ы 63 64 59 78 82 72 83 17 20 20 16 17 11 9 9 15 15 13 13 Gensu 45 49 60 60 62 63 64 64 75 78 91 117 11 15 19 20 19 17 14 15 17 17 I6 17 Qmghai 4 4 5 5 5 7 7 7 8 10 10 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nmtqua 10 12 14 17 16 15 16 18 18 24 27 33 5 6 7 7 7 6 4 5 4 4 4 4 Xmliang 46 57 64 61 6Э 63 ЬО 57 60 65 64 72 ЭЬ 54 64 48 43 33 29 29 33 32 29 25 1 �i( 551 676 7� $23.67 877.13 902.6 9� 913.9 946•2 1j�,,S 21 73.9 13J_4 6 Qg 69 �8 215.07 233 47 191 6 169 156 I90 241•8 227 39 2Э3.2 � Shanghai 49 64 71 82 79 80 78 76 70 7В 62 87 11 14 I8 16 19 18 13 12 13 I4 10 12 и liвngsu 228 277 312 327 Э49 352 Э56 353 371 469 535 568 36 ЬЬ 75 67 70 5Э 43 45 55 74 67 69 W 1 Zhqmng 148 I60 199 215 227 236 248 249 250 283 299 298 15 35 47 48 Э9 36 30 38 49 53 47 51 Anhm 126 155 180 200 222 2Э5 232 2Э7 255 315 358 Эб2 32 54 78 84 105 82 83 61 77 101 103 102 г�ЕС!!! � ZI.P $ё� 4�7л.I? Р�� �Z )П� L� 1J?Р,Е L� LL3 /701 �Q j� 95 87 03.93 03 2 91 113 70 3 9 78 21 77 .� �_ L�_ �Z L,._ L4� �- 1�.L4 liangxi 186 207 211 222 238 244 269 272 3l8 372 799 436 14 22 ЭО 28 32 32 27 38 73 75 65 58 Huбei 250 277 Э09 329 355 Збб 373 385 425 506 515 584 13 26 32 28 34 71 26 27 38 49 50 55 Нипап 28Э 295 306 311 352 Эб5 372 Э79 396 426 440 451 23 30 ЭЭ 31 38 41 Э8 50 60 70 64 64 ои 4У� � L 8?3 9?1 1,�L L44t 1..204 l�1Z 1,?1� l,694 1,8?3 � �3 Ь? 1� � � 8� 2? !�2 1L !!� 111 Guangdong ЗОЬ 345 397 440 457 487 517 579 631 705 765 6Э0 21 2Э 32 40 27 26 26 32 40 40 35 32 Guaлgui 85 103 178 190 220 25Э 2Ы 294 Э23 799 460 556 12 15 17 1В 16 18 22 28 28 Э5 35 3J Fu1iал 104 120 174 20Э 2Э3 229 248 269 290 Э29 374 401 11 15 17 17 18 17 16 20 27 25 25 26 Натап 0 0 44 50 57 62 77 83 95 106 10 11 16 14 17 16 18 20 Soulhwat 669 36 799 863 � �dg 1.019 j,��i 1.128 1�_20 j,1,85 1.325 !9 � �j 29 � 3,.i 31 33 34 40 � 46 Sichuan 440 478 526 562 588 618 ЬЗЬ 666 700 765 806 8Э3 8 10 11 14 16 15 14 16 18 20 20 22 Gmzhou 122 1Э7 179 157 158 199 213 231 2Э9 258 271 274 7 9 11 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 Уиппап 102 118 126 137 146 156 162 165 18Э 190 200 211 4 5 5 5 Ь 8 7 7 7 9 9 12 Х�твпg 5 3 8 7 10 8 8 В 7 Ь 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 Sumofдbove /.J19 4,731 5Э01 5.572 6.031 Ь_290 6,SS9 � 7.030 8.I38 g�921 9.5I1 6Jj Q�3 1,137 1•052 1.093 Q18 722 j� 951 11124 1.121 1.101 SSBTota1 4,Э20 4,75Э 5,Э04 5,572 6,031 6,290 6,Э38 6,547 7,030 6,138 В,921 9,515 612 923 1,1Э5 1,052 1,09Э 91В 720 764 951 1,124 1,121 1,101 Source China Agnculture Vearбook, vanous issues -154- Table A2.12: Oilseed Crop Area, by Province, 1990-1995 Region Province 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 (1000 ha) Northeast 468 467 480 450 473 430 Heilongjiang 142 137 183 155 174 147 Liaoning 125 143 143 141 144 132 Jilin 201 188 154 153 154 151 North 2,545 2,576 2,561 2,790 3,136 3,133 Shandong 727 709 699 781 895 880 Hebei 544 559 549 556 590 605 Beijing 12 12 12 13 12 12 Tianjin 30 26 25 25 23 23 Henan 876 896 909 1,075 1,242 1,272 Shanxi 356 374 367 340 373 342 Northwest 1,569 1,657 1,650 1,572 1,735 1,745 Shaanxi 269 305 325 303 311 302 Gansu 302 308 309 309 334 328 Nei Mongol 518 551 582 503 531 557 Ningxia 97 103 94 97 97 101 Xinjiang 269 272 223 232 317 307 Qinghai 114 117 118 129 145 150 East 1,951 2,073 2,046 1,900 2,064 2,340 Zhejiang 302 307 304 236 235 309 Jiangsu 556 591 599 593 670 687 Shanghai 94 93 95 74 70 79 Anhui 999 1,083 1,048 997 1,088 1,264 Central 2,136 2,406 2,437 2,275 2,445 2,995 Hubei 744 804 730 734 824 1,047 Hunan 705 802 793 700 767 891 Jiangxi 687 801 914 841 854 1,057 South 697 692 701 749 767 801 Guangdong 343 333 333 351 353 347 Guangxi 197 200 204 235 251 284 Fujian 112 115 117 114 114 118 Hainan 45 44 47 49 49 51 Southwest 1,534 1,659 1,617 1,409 1,463 1,659 Sichuan 1,001 1,065 1,036 892 927 1,049 Guizhou 404 447 429 387 395 446 Yunnan 118 135 140 118 124 145 Tibet 11 12 12 12 16 19 Sum of Above 10,900 11,530 11,490 11,144 12,081 13,102 SSB Total 10,900 11,530 11,489 11,144 12,081 13,101 Source SSB; China Statistical Yearbook and China Agricultural Yearbook, various years Table A3.1: Cereal Production, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 Region/province 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1,000 tons Northeast 31.30 31125 29.11 2825 4o,25 42,665 30.88 37.811 40,494 40.95 35.12 53.776 53.55 55.492 51693 50.79 52.44 Heilongjiang 12,145 11,910 10,035 8,460 12,490 14,045 10,725 13,508 12,869 12,958 13,037 20.212 19,861 21,393 18,134 19,713 20,338 Liaoning 11,275 11,575 10,890 10,845 14,010 13,445 9,057 11,434 12,136 12,430 9,310 14,329 14,724 15,305 16,095 12,513 13,430 Jihn 8,210 7,890 8,185 9,070 13,595 15,175 11,103 12,869 15,489 15,562 12,773 19,235 18,974 18,799 17,464 18,573 18,679 North 66.435 60,3 63.91 69.250 77.550 80.555 78679 2312 80.866 82.445 2116 9724 93.738 95.495 111.42 105.867 114,063 Beijing 16,140 13,680 14,350 15,895 17,415 17,065 17,836 17,992 17,379 18,356 19,061 20,849 20,815 20,226 2,783 2,670 2,527 Tianjin 7,330 6,200 6,660 7,455 7,280 7,800 7,408 6,668 6,372 7,489 8,320 8,644 6,811 7,656 1,842 1,763 1,956 Hebei 1,335 1,325 1,025 1,170 1,055 1,240 1,325 1,491 1,585 1,521 1,717 1,803 1,878 1,882 21,364 22,633 25,070 Shanxi 8,245 6,705 6,905 8,575 8,905 9,390 8,721 8,842 9,007 8,803 9,899 9,766 9,618 9,291 8,504 7,593 8,162 Henan 17,375 17,040 18,755 19,240 24,310 25,375 23.987 22,926 26,051 23,756 29,048 29,633 27,133 27,981 32,220 28,790 30,593 Shaanxi 14,325 13,765 14,340 15,090 16,605 17,550 17,264 17,287 18,263 20,231 20,737 24,460 24,736 25,693 10,822 8,108 8,140 Shandong 1,685 1,820 1,775 1,825 1,980 2,135 2,138 2.113 2,209 2,289 2,334 2,591 2,747 2,766 33,889 34,310 37,615 Northwest 14.32 13.765 14.30 15, 16605 17.55_ 17.2 17.287 18.26 20231 12.7 24.460 24.73 25.693 25361 24o110 24.402 Nei Mongol 4,150 4,385 3.995 4,385 4,955 4,985 4,794 4,984 4,804 5,341 5,791 6,227 6,080 6,223 9,309 9,104 9.141 Gansu 4,575 3,540 4,530 4,640 4,935 5,215 5,271 4,511 5,366 6,350 6,090 8,640 8,978 9,617 6,490 6,144 5,500 Qinghai 3,875 3,840 3,860 4,030 4,485 4,930 4,951 5,429 5,819 6,029 6,186 6,731 6,696 7,031 912 871 862 Ningxia 750 880 745 880 840 945 919 892 953 959 998 1.037 1,063 1,063 1,885 1,829 1,888 Xinjiang 975 1,120 1,210 1,155 1,390 1,475 1,329 1,471 1,321 1,552 1,672 1.825 1,919 1,759 6,765 6,162 7,011 Eag8 55.390 490 53.025 61.650 61.685 70.385 65,793 69,165 6874 67.363 69.242 70.077 62.856 69.567 6806[ 6439 69,174. Shanghai 15,365 13,455 13,355 16,210 14,935 17,290 15,417 15,332 15,101 14,800 14,960 15,089 16,016 14,776 2,072 2.035 2,063 Jiangsu 23,640 21,850 23,055 26,550 28,490 31,710 29,372 31,347 30,596 30,563 31,018 31,133 29,130 31,891 30,185 28,636 31,079 Zhejiang 2,575 1,860 1,850 2,150 2,060 2,515 2,127 2,358 2,312 2,360 2,350 2,432 2,462 2,332 13,496 13,176 13,302 Anhui 13,810 11,920 14,765 16,740 16,200 18,870 18,877 20,128 20,733 19,640 20,914 21,423 15,248 20,568 22,308 20,549 22,730 Central 50.695 46.42 48.915 54.9Q 58.205 61,395 59.895 61.23 61.908 60U75 63.740 65.678 64.214 63.901 59.985 62.336 62.895 Jiangxi 20,880 20,035 20,635 22,540 25,320 24,990 24,068 25,301 24,802 24,304 25,562 25,885 26,161 25,710 14,294 15,104 15,082 Hubei 12.550 12,010 12,305 13.635 14,205 15,075 14,914 14,207 15,216 14,965 15,425 16,304 16,087 15,305 21,501 22,288 22,641 Hunan 17,265 14,375 15,975 18,730 18,680 21,330 20,913 21,728 21,890 21,306 22,753 23,489 21,966 22,886 24,190 24,944 25,172 S"Illk 34.115 35.225 W320 38.270 3900 37-W 33,679 33194 35.905 33.688 3864 40.504 40.135 40.626 36,917 3469 38.536 Guangdong 15,890 16,605 15,075 17,765 18,095 18,180 15,813 15,626 16,721 14,933 16,638 17,292 16,969 16,399 14,220 13,846 15,080 Guangxi 11,460 11,635 11,175 13,045 13,210 11,750 10,820 10,807 11,714 10,233 12,623 13,641 13,349 14,097 13,865 11,923 14,214 Fujian 6,765 6,985 7,070 7,460 7,700 7,575 7,046 6,761 7,470 7,495 8,057 8,092 8,215 8,381 7,301 7,342 7,587 Hainan na na na na na na na na no 1,027 1,330 1,479 1,602 1,749 1,531 1,575 1,655 Southwest 39.470 41.520 43.535 47.195 4967 51,645 46.90 47,937 47.823 48.148 50&6O 54,471 56.273 55.502 51.733 51.70 54.595 Sichuan 25,990 27,070 29,295 32,000 34,405 35,480 32,990 34,002 33,266 33,648 35,174 37,831 38,002 38,102 34,399 33,253 35,780 Guizhou 5,660 5,895 5,195 5,930 6,375 6,820 5,291 5,877 5,906 5,290 5,782 6,311 7,416 6,750 7,359 7,883 7,836 Yunnan 7,395 8,050 8.560 8,815 8,895 9,345 8,624 7,958 8,651 8,706 9,182 9,836 10,277 9,998 9,365 9,962 10,328 Xizang 425 505 485 450 370 490 527 449 465 504 547 493 578 652 610 602 651 Sum of above 292,60 277,925 286,055 314.735 342.82 361.70 333.100 343,849 354,001 353.400 369.28 406.712 395.511 406.281 405.174 393.894 416.112 SSB total 405,174 393,894 416,112 Source China Agnculture Yearbook, various years ТвЫе А3.2• Wheat Prodoction, Ьу Regioд впд Provinee, China, I979-95 Reg�on/provmu 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1.000 шпs LoL1hS23E },395 4у165 3.330 2_�85 1.700 1.003 3.899 3.666 3it8 2у 8 3�_t2 5�596 4.794 5�71 4.773 7у99 3�7 Heilongliслg 3,335 Э,945 3,140 2,780 4,510 3,825 3,768 Э,559 2,998 2,504 Э,673 5,018 4,153 4,695 3,400 2,753 2,7I3 Lmomng 85 55 55 50 45 25 2В 40 57 83 I53 450 496 655 665 526 6ЭЗ 1i1m 175 165 155 155 145 155 103 67 63 5I 86 128 145 221 308 220 191 Nor1h 2130 24.570 29.635 )1�820 11.390 14_,930 16.036 48_�7 45_`В3 15.319 51,718 31_`54 52_i59 53.l31 57�Ч9 55.033 57.215 Bei�mg 615 405 560 475 660 7Э0 731 710 755 840 916 1,015 1,085 1,114 1,048 969 1,OOq Т�ап1т 490 275 2I0 190 330 330 435 4Ы 475 543 608 620 620 620 591 508 654 НеЬе� 6,Э40 3,840 4,175 4.475 6.945 7,160 7,44J 8.268 7.2Э5 7,922 9,138 9,276 9.004 9.179 9.021 9.217 10,60) Shanx� 1,8Э0 1,185 1,615 2,030 2,455 2,900 2,951 3,054 2,Э40 2,294 3,144 3,19Э 3,103 2,745 3,254 2,954 2,701 Непап 9,690 В,905 10,8Э5 12,200 14,555 16,530 15,282 15,679 16,260 15,210 17,176 16,399 15,54Э 16,507 19,220 17,984 17,542 Shaanx� 3,595 2,Э00 Э,540 4,210 4,445 4,495 4,233 4,441 4,177 4,109 4,930 4,677 4,406 4,183 4,955 4,0Э5 4,104 Shandong 9,570 7.660 6,700 В,240 12.000 12.785 14.9Ы 15.624 14,741 14,401 15.806 16.614 18,898 18,783 19,360 19,366 20.607 Northwat б_�20 6.4t5 6_`85 7�45 8,,350 9.315 8.994 � 8�_33 9147 I0.576 11у56 12у71 12.312 12�300 10.166 10у91 Na Mongol 1,085 825 1,000 1,265 1,210 1,440 1,485 1,Э08 1,257 1,64В 1,883 2,617 2,896 3,30J 2,985 2,348 2,622 Gansu 2,Э25 2,400 2,Э20 3,105 7,)35 3,415 3,148 7,Э07 3,020 3,241 3,Ы0 3,714 3,746 Э,774 7,751 3,155 2,546 Qmghai 480 565 500 6Э0 620 675 630 609 676 6В7 706 742 769 749 739 686 695 Nmgлia 420 495 540 Ы 5 7Э0 750 586 703 463 655 719 775 833 700 864 692 689 Xmliang 2,110 2,1Э0 2,225 2,Э30 2,655 3,035 Э,145 Э,Э82 Э,5Э7 3,516 1,658 Э,908 3,827 4,186 4,161 3,285 3,9Э9 E�I �0,�8� JП,043_ 10.535 13_`85 11.710 6660 15.475 17.038 17.092 16,166 15,460 16_`51 12_�!8 17у_56 17.568 16_`32 16_`95 I Shanghai 190 205 175 180 110 140 218 Э02 277 283 242 30I 313 Э11 286 212 2;g � Лвпgsи 5,345 5,640 5,260 7,095 7,610 9,040 8,294 9,38Э 8,995 8,943 8,461 9,298 8,259 10,404 9,419 8,774 В,926 � 2hel�ang 745 795 745 970 Вб5 1,015 904 787 641 764 734 872 721 801 694 544 541 О� Anhw 3,900 3,405 4,355 5,540 5,725 6,465 ЬД59 6,566 7,179 6,176 6,027 5,980 2,855 6,140 7,169 7,102 6,990 1 S&!!![8д 3s325 3.000 2.В45 1_ U20 3�� 1.213 3�30 4.га 4i70 4.448 4.069 4.279 4�04 4у_40 4.210 4_`10 3�9 -83 1�ап1Dи 140 90 95 115 75 100 104 92 76 8Э 71 82 76 84 95 91 76 Hubei 2,835 2,665 2,485 3,580 3,355 Э,780 3,454 3,815 4,211 4,081 Э,755 Э,911 4,181 3,72Э 3,867 3,833 Э,ЬЭЬ Нипап 350 245 265 Э25 ЭО5 3Э5 292 297 283 2В4 24Э 286 347 ЗЗЗ 278 286 271 �4.!!h .�70 490 365 /20 175 �3S 263 233 300 33I 477 553 584 464 325 278 283 Guangdong 355 240 140 165 65 125 79 68 77 88 171 219 229 146 96 65 69 Guangxi 60 25 20 20 15 15 10 12 12 19 29 24 17 16 17 15 2В Fulian 215 225 205 2Э5 95 195 174 153 211 227 277 310 378 Э02 212 198 186 Наиап па па па па па па пв па па 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 hw 6�450 6�520 6�25 7s 45 8.4гs 8у-15 7,170 7.238 7�5 7�78 7i_18 8.967 9.776 10убЭ 9.935 9.481 10у_11 Sкhивп 5,165 5,205 5,140 6,360 7,240 7,030 6,256 6,501 6,584 5,720 6,230 7,017 7,615 7,845 7,016 7,043 7,309 Gwzhou 425 350 320 ЭОО 320 760 295 Э22 3I5 420 480 718 В27 846 1,373 962 1,078 Уиппап 705 785 7Э5 675 865 825 619 475 746 827 804 1,068 1,151 1,276 1,350 1,252 1,375 Xizang 155 180 130 110 105 140 118 95 107 111 134 164 183 196 196 224 2q9 Sum of aбove 621-30 55_,205 59_,640 68у_20 81�285 87.675 85у87 89.943 87.661 85_�30 93.864 99_`56 96.636 103•437 ОЗ 6,390 99_,299 I02.215 S$B (о1а1 62,730 55,205 59,640 68,420 В1,390 87,815 85 805 90,040 87,768 85,7Э0 93,864 99,Э56 96,6Эб 103,4Э7 106,390 99,299 102,215 1 Нвтап да[а avaJaбe begmmng т 1988-pnor years, исlидед т Guangdong Souru Chma Stвuancal Yearbook апд Chma Agnculture Yarбook, vanom уап ТаЫе А3 2а: Produetion оГ Winter W6ea1 Ьу Region апд Province, СЫаа, 1990.1995 1979 1982 198Э 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 199Э 1994 1995 Reg�on/province 1,000 tons N�ц so 2_s 1� � � 3� 4 з 1 ь Z 1i4 L 2 �k не�lоп�[апе о о о о о гоо о о о о о о о о з Ltaomng 50 25 15 5 З 2 4 З I 6 7 14 17 9 23 1i1m 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L�1ld1S E�,Z4� �,Ь� � < �4?2 48,П� 4�$.� 9s,1� S 9 l1�90 �`9 � SL� � �iZ4 Beqmg 6,270 470 455 725 725 706 751 8Э5 909 1,002 1,075 1,110 1,045 962 1,003 Тiал1т 1,775 175 Э10 310 404 4Э5 451 523 592 604 604 61Э 582 498 641 Hebei 480 4,4З0 6,885 7,110 7,387 8,244 7,216 7,907 9,122 9,262 6,99Э 9,169 9,014 9,212 10,600 Shалx� Э,590 1,985 2,Э90 2,785 2,811 2,924 2,2ЭЗ 2,I90 Э,041 Э,105 3,006 2,6I4 3,119 2,867 2,647 Непал 9,690 12,200 14,555 16,530 0 15,679 16,260 15,210 17,176 16,Э99 18,898 16,507 19,220 17,984 17,542 Shaалx� 2,Э55 4,200 4,425 4,465 4,204 4,405 4,160 4,088 4,903 4,604 4,365 4,147 4,92Э 4,009 4,084 Shandong 605 8,2Э5 12,000 12,780 14,961 15,624 14,741 I4,401 15,606 16,614 18,698 18,78Э 19,ЭЬ0 19,Эбб 20,607 Ь а �: ё 8, 90 ?�L � �i� � � � 4 0�09 4374 4350 4J69 4�02 3�97 3�686 Nei Monggol 995 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gалsu 0 1,Э45 1,Э50 1,415 1,134 1,270 1,022 1,160 1,488 1,548 1,618 1,256 1,655 1,327 844 Qmghai 1,Э20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nmgxm 0 35 45 55 Э7 37 26 50 54 бб 80 241 94 64 45 Xmliалg 40 1,510 1,710 1,925 2,082 2,237 2,ЭЗ0 2,228 2,467 2,660 2,652 2,872 2,953 2,Э06 2,797 �t1 1�8� 13.78? 1.�)0 1¢�ЬЬО ].�`75 LO`8 L�49� 16.166 � L.4Sl L 1�8 11,6� 1Z�568 LЬ Ь32 ]6�96 j Shалghai 745 180 1I0 140 218 Э02 277 26Э 242 Э01 Э1Э Э11 286 212 2Э8 и 1�алgsu 5,345 7,095 7,610 9,040 8,294 9,Э83 8,995 8,94Э 8,461 9,298 6,259 10,404 9,419 8,774 8,926 '�1 Zheltang 190 970 865 1,015 904 787 641 764 734 872 721 801 694 544 541 1 Апhи 3,900 5,540 5,725 6,465 6,059 6,566 7,179 6,176 6,027 5,980 2,855 6,140 7,169 7,102 6,99I �E4i81 3�25 4,� 735 4� �.§�4 � 4� 4,Z§ � 27 4,6 4 4� � � 3� hangлi Э50 115 75 100 104 92 76 8Э 71 82 76 84 95 91 75 НиЬе+ 140 Э,580 Э,355 Э,780 3,454 3,815 4,211 4,081 Э,755 Э,911 4,181 Э,723 Э,867 3,8ЭЗ Э,б36 Нипап 2,8Э5 Э25 305 Э35 292 297 283 284 243 286 Э47 ЗЗЗ 278 286 271 Saufh 630 420 L Э,75 j63 j,33 300 7� � S�iS 5� 464 22Q 278 2� Guалgdong Э55 165 65 125 79 68 77 88 171 219 229 146 0 65 0 Guangxi 60 20 15 15 10 12 12 19 29 24 17 16 I7 15 28 Fu1iал 215 2Э5 95 195 174 153 211 227 277 Э10 ЭЗ8 302 212 198 186 Haman па па па па па па па 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 outh 6.425 7335 8_,425 81,2jz 7.170 7.258 7.645 6_`67 7�4 8_�19 9�.76 10.163 9�727 9у39 9�44 Sichuan 5,165 6,ЭЬ0 7,240 7,0Э0 6,256 6,501 6,584 5,720 6,230 7,017 7,615 7,845 6,908 7,04Э 7,Э09 Guizhou 425 ЗОО 320 ЗЬО 295 Э22 Э15 420 480 7I8 827 846 1,Э7Э 962 1,078 Уиппал 705 675 865 825 619 4Э5 746 827 804 1,068 1,151 1,276 1,296 1,252 1,370 Xizang 1J0 0 0 0 46 6Э 72 68 93 116 1В3 196 150 182 187 $итofaбove 47.730 60,170 701_85 77.ц0 ЬО ОЬ 80_,4 _96 78.В01 76510 83.087 86_,072 87308 89•749 93.746 89_,163 91_,672 Wmter wheat productwn is саlсиlа[ед as а residual(total wheat produclion тииs spnng wheat ргодисиоп) Натал data avadaбe begmmng т 1988-рпог years, тсlидед и Guangdong Table A3.2b-. Production of Spring Wheat by Region and Province, China, 1990-1995 Region/Province 1979 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 (1000 ton) Northeas 3.545 7.960 4685 4000 3896 3.464 3114 2,635 3.911 5.590 4787 $557 U56 3490 3.511 Heilongliang 3,335 2,780 4,510 3,825 3,768 3,359 2,998 2,504 3,673 5,018 4,153 4,695 3,400 2,753 2,710 Liaoning 35 25 30 20 25 38 53 80 152 444 489 641 648 517 610 Jilin 175 155 145 155 103 67 63 51 86 128 145 221 308 220 191 LO 1_75 188 86 -5 Mo -5 262 165 169 North 160 125 LZ 220 m a Beijing to 5 5 5 6 4 4 5 7 13 10 4 3 7 1 Tianjin 10 15 20 20 31 26 24 20 16 16 16 7 9 10 13 Hebei 70 45 60 50 56 24 19 15 16 14 11 10 7 5 3 Shanxi 55 45 0 115 140 130 107 104 103 98 97 131 135 87 54 Henan 0 0 65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Shaanxi 5 10 20 30 29 36 17 21 27 33 41 36 32 26 20 Shandong 10 5 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NQrthwes 4.065 5.055 5445 5.920 5.741 5.765 5.575 009 6.567 7482 7.721 7.943 7798 6.469 6801 Inner Mongolia 1,085 1,265 1,210 1,440 1,485 1,308 1,257 1,648 1,883 2,617 2,896 3,303 2,985 2,348 2,622 Gansu 1,330 1,760 1,985 2,000 2,014 2,037 1,998 2,081 2,122 2,166 2,128 2,118 2,096 1,828 1,698 Qinghai 480 630 620 675 630 609 676 687 706 742 769 749 739 686 695 Ningxia 380 580 685 695 549 666 437 605 665 709 753 459 770 628 644 Xinjiang 790 820 945 1.110 1,063 1,145 1,207 1,288 1,191 1,248 1,175 1,314 1,208 979 1,142 Q 9 Q 9 Shanghai 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 t-n Jiangsu 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 I Zhejiang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Anhui 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Central Q 9 Q 9 2 Q 9 2 2 2 0 9 9 2 2 Jiangxi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hubei 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hunan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 South 9 Q 9 9 9 9 9 2 9 2 9 9 26 9 U Guangdong 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 % 0 69 Guangxi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fujian 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hainan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Southwes L IN D05 140 Q 9 2 2 9 L8 !L9 4§ L-8 42 L7 Sichuan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 108 0 0 Guizhou 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Yunnan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54 0 5 Tibet 25 110 105 140 73 32 35 43 41 48 49 46 46 42 62 Sum of aboy 7 795 8.250 10,405 10,285 9.899 9.449 8.860 9,109 10,647 13,294 12,732 13,734 12,644 10.13 10,539 Nat'l Total 8,250 10,688 13,284 12,732 13,734 12.644 10,136 10,539 Sources China Agriculture Yearbook, various years ТаЫе А3.3: Rite Ргодиедоя, Ьу Region апд Provineq China, 1979-95 RegioгJprov�nce 1979 1980 1981 1982 198Э I984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 I993 1994 1995 I,OOO lОП9 hея %.a60 9,j7� 9,]7¢ 4�9U 3.375 6.460 6.100 7.166 7•859 8.161 7.012 9•908 104 11.278 10.ц8 10.19Э 10.256 HedonBliang 720 795 560 7I0 915 1,240 1,629 2,208 2,257 2,4Э5 2,Э17 Э,Э22 3,445 4,071 Э,883 4,104 4,699 Liaonmg 2,120 2,355 2,490 2,5Э5 2,905 3,3I0 2,630 3,207 3,Э72 Э,481 2,839 3,692 3,909 4,177 3,765 3,162 2,618 1дт 1,020 1,075 1,125 1,445 1,515 1,9I0 1,841 1,751 2,2Э0 2,245 1,856 2,894 Э,ОЬЗ Э,ОЗО 2,890 2,927 2,969 orth 9,]90 4,L 4�30 1•205 4 8�0 5,1 ].Q 5.032 4.891 4.788 4.387 5.510 3.997 5�868 6.178 5�909 5у30 6_�14 Beilmg 185 295 215 225 270 260 249 244 240 2Э9 2Э4 216 225 211 186 182 168 Tian��n 255 Э10 12S 110 t00 1Э5 174 215 239 288 294 282 ЗЭО 394 Э18 Э18 Э89 Heбei 6Э0 830 710 760 825 750 780 756 771 811 852 912 891 955 866 88Э 90Э Shanxi 60 70 55 60 65 65 58 51 40 4Э 54 54 57 54 43 Э9 42 Непап 1,610 1,780 2,045 1,750 2,180 2,Э90 2,26Э 2,06Э 1,977 1,622 2,428 2,700 2,429 2,787 2,880 2,688 2,958 Shaалxi 795 755 530 795 845 935 88Э 932 947 900 1,006 1,004 1,027 996 863 704 642 Shandoпg 655 740 650 505 595 575 625 630 574 484 642 829 909 781 753 816 912 Northweц 543 6S5 б� 780 8.75 8� 8� 839 Q4Ю Q,¢� 1.118 1J31 1,404 132J 1�32 11218 j� Nei Mongol Э5 40 40 45 40 60 78 83 77 122 195 311 Э52 414 330 Э05 396 Gвпsи 15 20 15 15 15 15 18 19 22 20 2Э 28 Э1 ЭЬ 36 49 53 Qmghai 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N�nBx�a 250 330 370 395 400 420 419 421 4Э9 45Э 486 519 560 440 440 465 462 X�n�iang 245 255 260 325 380 Э70 ЗОЬ Э16 362 39Э 414 473 461 43Э 326 399 472 �g3j 36.740 32.940 35.575 40уб5 40.170 45.740 43.131 44 Ь ц.527 12.980 45.835 45.718 43_ 0_29 44.131 42,993 41.594 44.769 1 � Shanghai 1,815 I,165 1,250 1,515 1,475 1,780 1,5Э9 1,746 1,749 1,735 1,81Э 1,В14 1,850 1,716 1,540 I,598 1,586 и 1�angsu 13,015 12,285 1Э,ОЬ5 14,Э75 16,050 17,495 16,Э85 17,027 I6,518 16,586 17,802 17,289 I6,489 17,130 16,800 16,007 17,896 �О 2heliang 13,020 I1,760 11,810 14,240 1Э,045 15,105 1Э,578 1Э,б84 1Э,368 12,957 1Э,Э12 13,214 14,ЭЭ0 12,998 12,167 12,114 12,188 Anhm 8,890 7,7Э0 9,450 10,435 9,600 11,ЭЬ0 1I,629 12,223 11,892 11,702 12,908 1Э,401 10,ЭЬ0 12,287 12,486 I1,875 12,699 Central 4у000 41.685 44.150 48.800 52.365 5y76S 53.863 30_,948 55.182 54.262 57,651 59328 57315 56у2 ц.756 551_90 561556 )mngxi 12,350 11,880 12,165 1Э,465 14,080 14,930 14,758 14,069 15,090 14,835 15,296 16,159 15,870 14,736 14,106 14,9Э8 14,865 Hubei 12,645 10,380 12,000 13,5Э5 13,705 15,670 15,717 16,2Эб 15,950 15,761 17,4Э3 I7,896 16,101 17,465 16,215 16,902 17,307 Нипап 20,005 19,425 19,985 21,800 24,580 24,165 23,Э88 24,64Э 24,142 23,666 24,922 25,173 25,344 24,231 2Э,435 24,150 24,384 5outh 31_,975 33.015 3 415 36J50 37.555 35,895 32.285 31.853 34 62 32.369 J6y85 38.J55 38у003 37у0 _10 34�.638 32_�94 36_�74 Guалgdong 15,420 16,230 14,790 17,445 17,915 17,9Э0 15,614 15,4Э7 16,514 14,7Э0 16,30Э 16,870 16,516 15,65Э 13,909 1Э,594 14,716 Guangxi 10,070 10,070 9,815 11,745 12,080 I0,655 9,860 9,ВЬЬ 10,690 9,466 11,324 12,Э90 12,I82 12,429 12,28Э 10,570 12,600 Fu��an 6,485 6,715 6,810 7,160 7,560 7,Э10 6,811 6,550 7,158 7,163 7,657 7,653 7,741 7,ЭЗ0 6,945 6,992 7,249 Нв�пап па па па па па na па па па 1,010 1,301 1,442 1,564 1,598 1,501 1,5Э8 1,609 Southwest 21.440 22.579 23.625 25.845 27.725 29.415 27.Э34 27.844 27.796 28,080 �3� 3�,�,l, i,�.3� 302 2 287J7 28,� 3рЭ55 Sкhuan 14,750 15,449 16,390 17,705 19,390 20,340 19,261 20,0Э2 19,797 20,4Э4 2I,353 22,511 21,995 21,406 20,271 19,Э17 20,979 Gmzhou Э,260 3,250 2,870 Э,500 3,765 4,070 Э,243 Э,412 Э,419 3,060 Э,27Э Э,ЬОЗ 4,148 3,790 Э,б97 4,2Э9 4,252 Уиппап 3,825 3,875 4,360 4,640 4,570 5,005 4,8Э0 4,400 4,580 4,58Э 4,675 5,094 5,169 5,012 4,765 5,054 5,119 Xizang 5 5 5 0 0 5 Э 3 2 З 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 Sum of яbove 143.750 39 869 143.955 16 61 8.865 178350 61 8.566 71 2.221 71 4.414 7 2, 27 1�Q.L�. L.L.LB LI�1 186.564 71 7.703 175.933 81 5•137 SSB total 143,750 1Э9,905 14Э,955 161,2Э5 168,865 178,255 168,569 172,224 174,416 171,227 183,015 191,748 187,351 186,222 177,702 175,9Э3 185,226 Source Chma Agnculture Yearbook �anous years ТаЫе A3Ja• Nortбero Rгп Ргодисhод, Ьу Region аод Ргоvтп, Chinв, 1979-95 Reg�on/ргоипсе 1979 198I I982 1983 1985 1986 1987 1986 1989 1990' 1991 1992 I993 1994 1995 1.000 tons о h 3•860 4.175 4,695 5 35 6�100 7.166 7i 8.1Ы 7.о12 9.911Е fQ.417 11�,278 10.538 10•19Э 10.286 Heilongl�ang 720 560 710 915 1,629 2,206 2,257 2,435 2,317 Э,322 Э,445 4,071 Э,883 4,104 4,699 L�вomng 2,120 2,490 2,5Э5 2,905 2,630 Э,207 3,Э72 Э,481 2,839 3,692 Э,909 4,177 7765 7,162 2,618 1iбn 1,020 1,125 1,450 1,515 1,В41 1,751 2,2Э0 2,245 1,856 2,894 3,063 Э,030 2890 2,927 2,969 ог h 4,L9U 4,}3о 4,7�П_3 4�$0 S�Q,}2_ 4,891 4.788 1.387 3.310 3i7 868 6.172 5�909 5� 30 6.01/ Beqmg 165 215 225 270 249 244 240 239 234 2I6 225 211 186 182 168 Tianlm 255 125 110 100 174 215 2Э9 288 294 282 330 394 318 318 Э89 Hebn ЬЗО 710 760 825 780 756 771 811 652 912 891 955 866 883 903 Shanxi 60 55 60 65 58 5I 40 4Э 54 54 57 54 43 39 42 Непап 1.610 2,045 1,750 2.180 2.26Э 2.063 1977 1622 2.428 2.700 2А29 2.787 2880 2.688 2.958 Shaanю 795 530 795 845 88Э 932 947 900 1,006 1,004 1,027 990 863 704 642 Shandong 655 650 505 595 625 630 574 484 642 629 909 781 753 816 912 Northwesl �5 6�5 780 835 821 3�9 Q00 988 ],?]8 ]�,i3-/ 1�40д 1.3ц 1.132 1.218 1.383 Nei Monggol 35 40 45 40 78 83 77 122 195 31t 752 414 330 ЭО5 796 Gansu 15 15 15 15 18 19 22 20 ц 28 Э1 36 36 49 53 Qиghai 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nmgxm 250 Э70 395 400 419 421 4Э9 453 486 519 560 440 440 465 462 Xmpang 245 260 325 380 306 Э16 Эб2 393 414 473 461 433 326 399 472 еаг 4 о Q Q 4 о Q о о g о о о g о sЬап86а, о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о I ьапеги о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о � гЬерап8 о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о р Anhw о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о 1 сепtгвl о о о о о о о Q о о о о о о о 1�ап�� о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о ниье� о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о нипап о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о 1n 4 о о Q о о о о о о о о о о о сиап8аппе о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о сиапех� о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о Fи1�ап о о о о о о а о о о о о о о о натап" па па па па пн па пн о о о о о о о о 5oulhweat � s s о о о о о Q з з 4 4 е ! S�chuan 0 0 о 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gwzhou 0 0 о 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Уиппап 0 о 0 0 0 0 0 0 о 0 0 0 0 0 0 Хiталg 5 5 5 0 3 3 2 7 0 3 7 4 4 4 1 Sum of aбove $.ЬОО 9�193 9,683 11.050 11-9ц 12,896 13 7 (3,536 13-rt40 1Т,ц9 17,692 l8,777 17у_83 17у45 17,684 1n the 1991 Agnwlmre Yeerbook, mcertnediatdsиgle сгор late псе апд narchern псе аге ттЬтед ипдег а smgle hesdиg Н�sшпсаllу, йеге �s по overlap Ьепчееп mtennediatdsиgle сгор late псе апд попhет псе growmg regwns, йегеfоге, 1990 noпhern псе was denved Ьу followmg йе histoncal planung рапет 5ources Stausua рпог со 1991, USDA, ERS, Srвnsncal Bulletm No 644, 'Agnculmral 5uusncs of йе Реорlе'г RepuЫic оГ Сhиа, 1949-90" 1991 - 1995, Chma Аппиаl AgnculNral SWtisucal Data, vanous уеап Table A33b: Early Rice Production, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 Region/province 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1,000 tons Northeast 9 9 2 Q 9 2 2 9 9 9 Q Q Heilongliang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 a 0 0 0 0 0 0 Liaoning 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jilin 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 North 2 9 9 2 15 2 0 2 9 9 9 9 2 9 2 9 9 Beijing 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tianjin 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hebei 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Shanxi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Henan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Shaanxi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Shandong 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Northwes 2 9 Q 9 9 9 9 2 2 2 2 2 9 9 9 Q 0 Net Monggol 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gansu 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Qinghai 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ningxia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Xinjiang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EAH 14X5 12,655 12,695 13.28 loms 12,075 10,571 10,777 9.224 8.391 #J49 9.105 7.370 7.927 6.69Z 6.765 Shanghai 805 605 610 570 520 640 367 310 197 114 61 47 21 1 0 0 0 Jiangsu 2,955 2,310 1,850 1,675 1,275 910 417 358 248 115 98 76 33 24 10 6 3 Zhejiang 6,765 6,293 6,405 6,810 5,615 6,780 6,258 6,493 5,867 5,403 5,485 6,068 5,968 5,585 4,531 4,499 4,390 Anhui 3,810 3,445 3,830 4,225 3,175 3,745 3,529 3,616 2,912 2,759 2,805 2,914 1,348 2,317 2,151 2,260 2,065 Central 20.94 19,445 29J90 21.82 21.16 22.79 21,264 22J7 21,291 21,711 21.77 23,140 20,412 20,130 17,215 M783 17,762 Jiangxi 6,800 6,485 6,715 7,090 7,090 7,735 7,219 7,559 7,527 7,226 6,807 7,571 7,251 6,374 5,316 5,955 5,451 Hubei 4,290 3,610 3,850 4,485 3,690 4,365 4,128 4,305 4,267 4,448 4,663 4,873 3,502 4,310 3,642 3,793 3,764 Hunan 9,755 9,350 9,825 10,250 10,385 10,690 9,917 10,506 9,487 10,037 10,305 10,696 9,659 9,446 8,257 9,035 8,547 South 15.82 16.22 15,735 17,280 19.4 17.93 16,437 15.9 16,657 16,614 19.21 19.93 18,393 18,785 16,721 14,933 17,476 Guangdong 7,890 8,130 7,910 8,585 9,215 8,980 8,253 7,739 8,112 7,613 8,188 8,380 8,137 8,000 7,020 6,390 7,297 Guangxi 4,735 4,940 4,905 5,725 6,100 5,695 5,422 5,276 5,571 5,486 6,189 6,557 6,359 6,769 6.457 5,165 6,714 Fujian 3,195 3,150 2,900 2,970 3,145 3,160 2,762 2,891 2.974 2,993 3,149 3,188 3,155 3,209 2,547 2,592 2,742 Hainan na na na na na na na no na 522 693 705 742 807 697 686 723 L-- M i-5- Ik_ 5L 1_ M 5YA Elm - 481 Southwest 990 120 35 5 5 05 5 5" 07 66 9 k16 w V-8 Sichuan 690 595 510 440 305 335 280 306 239 279 253 251 256 251 353 145 169 Guizhou 30 Is 10 5 5 5 3 4 3 0 3 6 11 6 3 4 5 Yunnan 260 210 215 230 245 265 252 256 265 287 273 317 337 359 355 332 354 Xizang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sum ofabov 51.98 49.14 49.53 53.06 50.79 53JO 48,807 49.61 47,669 47,292 48,972 51.64 46,779 47,458 41,339 40,862 42,224 Hainan data available beginning in 1988--pnor years, included in Guangdong Sources Statistics prior to 1991, USDA, ERS. Statistical Bulletin No 844, "Agricultural Statistics ofthe People's Republic ofChina, 1949-90" 1991 - 1995, China Annual Agricultural Statistical Data, various yews Table A3.3c: Intermediate and Single Crop Late Rice Production, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 Region/province 1979 1981 1982 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990, 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1.000 tons Northeast 0 0 q 0 0 8 0 8 0 2 0 9 Heilongpiang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Liaoning 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jhn 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 North0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Beijing 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tianjin 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hebei 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 Shanxi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 Henan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 Shaanxi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Shandong 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Northwest a 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 2 2 2 0 0 Nei Monggol 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gansu 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 Qimghai 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ningxia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Xinjiang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Eat 11,220 1.385 16,880 19350 22,869 24,190 24.598 X5.11M 27.63 27.501 25.563 27.353 18609 19,774 28,499 Shanghai 100 180 205 190 709 994 1.214 1,371 1,526 1,587 1,680 1,610 17 20 28 iangsu 7,395 9,990 11.410 13.575 15.511 16.245 15,921 16.203 17,511 17,025 16,157 16,934 10,759 10,039 11,611 Zhejiang 645 1,040 925 1.085 1,060 963 1,153 1.078 1,173 996 10139 1.167 1883 2.152 2.033I Anhui 3,080 4.175 4.340 4.500 5,589 5.988 6,310 6.518 7,473 7,893 6,587 7.642 5,949 7.563 6,827 Central .10 9.150 2M5 1075 11.077 l1S4 11.678 1o59 12.090 12.210 12020 12232 13023 13.536 im Jiangxi 1,180 1,220 1,260 1.200 1,208 1,169 1,215 1.191 1,232 1,229 1,268 1,242 1,533 1,506 1.837 Hubei 5,355 5,690 5.920 6,370 7,396 7,484 7,440 6,927 8,078 8,187 7,664 8.206 8,242 8,525 8,721 Hunan 2,275 2,280 2,655 2,805 2,473 2,892 3,023 2,475 2,780 2,794 3,088 2,784 3,248 3,505 3.367 South 1.410 1.6 2160 2.325 2.21 2JI 2.434 2.395 2.469 2.379 2.609 3.500 2,466 2469 2.367 Guangdong 0 175 IO 245 189 209 193 139 126 33 171 949 0 0 0 Guangxi 625 650 750 710 599 640 684 633 669 666 693 677 679 691 530 Fujian 785 1,140 1,230 1,370 1,425 1,469 1,557 1,623 1,674 1,613 1,687 1,795 1,787 1,771 1,837 Haiman" na na na na na na na 50 55 67 58 79 0 7 0 Southwest 2.940 225ss 24.81 26.815 26A71 26.981 26.946 27,139 28.453 3032 30,393 30.2,30 2.312 27,819 2957 Sichuan 13,390 15,635 17,020 18,850 18,741 19,496 19,309 19,925 20,866 22,050 21,517 21,827 19,646 19,022 20,667 Guizhou 3,205 2,855 3,485 3,755 3.237 3,408 3,413 3,060 3,267 3,595 4,134 3,823 3,669 4.231 4,242 Yunnan 3,445 4,060 4,305 4,210 4.493 4,077 4,224 4.203 4,320 4,687 4,742 4,580 4,004 4,562 4,633 Xizang 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 SUM Of above !LIN8 490 5368 58.865 6263 65.034 65.656 65,346 70.695 72.422 70.585 73.315 61.416 63,598 66.338 In thel991 Agriculture Yearbook, ntermediate/single crop late rice and northern nce are combined under a single heading Historically. there is no overlap between intermediate/single crop late rice and northern rice growmng regions, therefore, 1990 internediate/single crop rice was derived by following historical planting patterns Haman data available beginning in 1989--pnor years, included in Guangdong Sources Statistics prior to 1991, USDA, ERS, Statistical Bulletin No 844, "Agricultural Statistics of the Peoples Republic of Chma, 1949-90" 1991 - 1995, China Annual Agricultural Statistical Data, various years ТаЫе АЭ.Эд. DouЫe Сгор La1e Riee Production, Ьу Region апд Province, China, 1979-95 Region/ргоипсе 1979 1981 1982 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 199Э 1994 1995 � � 1.О00 lоП9 Neclhs�a! 4 о_ о Q g о g о 4 Q о о о р о Не�tоп8l�але о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о t,�aon�ne о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о 1�ьп о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о ЛSl.h 4 о g о 4 о о g о о g Q о о о ве,упВ о о о о о а о о о о о о о о о т�апlт о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о неье� о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о sьапХ� о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о непап о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о Shaanx� о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о Shалdong 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Norlhwnt 4 Q 4 � 4 4 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nei Monggol 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gалsu 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Qmghai 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nиgx�a 0 0 0 о 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Xmliалg 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 �,дfS 11 1 5 7.495 10 4 12� Е,б91 9.�13 2.Z� 2.419 2 7� Р.J.Ъ� 10уб 8�851 �94 �4 L�� � 5hалghai 910 460 740 765 46Э 442 ЭЭ8 250 226 180 I49 105 1,524 1,578 1,558 0, hвn8su 2,665 1,225 1,290 1,200 457 424 349 268 I93 188 299 I72 6,031 5,962 6,Э72 W Zhel�ang 5,Ы0 4,Эб5 6,505 6,Э45 6,260 6,228 6,348 6,476 6,654 6,150 7,22Э 6,246 5,753 5,463 5,765 1 Anhw 2,000 1,445 1,870 1,925 2,511 2,Ы9 2,670 2,425 2,6Э0 2,594 2,425 2,Э28 4,386 2,051 3,807 �E�t[8! l�..�4� 1.4,� 1Z11� Е4,83.. Е1� 11�0.� 1�23 �.9?8 �J.28Ь .3�i 878 20_`86 25126 23518 23у71 дs,15S 1iал8xi 4,Э70 4,230 5,115 5,790 6,ЭЗ1 5,З41 6,Э48 6,418 7,257 7,359 7,351 7,484 7,257 7,477 7,86Э Huбei З,ООО 2,460 Э,1Э0 Э,б45 4,19Э 4,447 4,24Э 4,386 4,692 4,836 4,935 4,949 4,ЭЗ1 4,564 4,822 Нипал 7,975 7,880 8,870 11,390 1о,998 11,245 11,6Э2 11,154 11,8Э7 11,68Э 12,600 12,593 11,9Э0 11,610 12,470 �4�LЬ 1y7S0 1?,Z3? Lч!о 16� ьз�� 1?,?3? ].i3�?L 1.�..�?ё ]s�ч L.L44 17_.оо1 L1i1 Ls4?1 1539г 16у44 Guалgdong 7,5Э0 6,705 8,680 8,460 7,172 7,489 8,209 6,978 7,989 8,457 8,208 7,073 6,889 7,204 7,419 Cuалgxi 4,715 4,260 5,270 5,270 Э,8Э9 Э,950 4,4Э5 3,Э47 4,466 5,167 5,1Э0 S,ЭЫ 5,147 4,714 5,169 Fщian 2,505 2,770 2,960 3,045 2,624 2,190 2,627 2,547 2,834 2,852 2,899 2,9Э0 2,611 2,629 2,670 Чаtпап па пв па па па па па 4Э8 55Э 670 764 807 804 845 886 и hw s 415 3%.,S 360 � 328 297 1� 1�2,3 Э19 ,1�20 31� �Эtб 704 1,� 280 S�chuал 270 245 245 2Э5 240 2Э0 249 230 2Э4 210 222 217 272 150 14Э Gwтhou 25 5 10 5 З 0 Э 0 3 2 Э 4 25 4 5 Уиппал 120 85 I05 115 85 67 91 9Э 82 90 90 95 407 160 1Э2 Xizang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Э 0 0 0 0 0 0 SитоГдЬоvе 41-695 J6.135 44.790 48,190 45у76 44у72 47у42 44_372 49.097 50.438 52398 50.364 57367 S4y1 59у81 На,пал даlа avadaЫe begmmng т 1988--рпог years, тсlидед т Guangdong Sources Stвnsucs ргтг to 1991, USDA, ERS, 5tat�rimal Ви11Мт No 844, "Agncultural Statisncs of the Peoplds RepuЫic of China, 1949-90' 1991 - 1995, Chma Аппиаl A8nculturel StaUSLCa1 Data, venous years ТвЫе А3.4 СОгв Production, Ьу RegioП впд Provmee, China, 1979-95 Region/provmce 1979 1960 1981 1982 198Э 1984 1985 1986 1987 1986 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 I,OOOLOПS г h 8}i jZ,¢3Q 6 410 15.510 14,755 4 5 24.615 16.5Э0 22,557 5 492 25у_58 21.195 33.930 34.215 7�26 32.609 J2.377 35.158 He�1on151iang 5,810 5,205 4,415 Э,280 4,635 6,420 4,1I8 6,Э20 6,4Ы 6,8Э8 6,I52 10,656 10,978 10,428 9,566 11,464 12126 Liaomng 6,285 6,135 5,820 5,580 7,370 7,155 4,481 6,073 6,715 6,910 4,968 7,982 8,22Э 8,532 9,597 6,519 8247 1ди 5,335 5,070 5,275 5,895 9,410 11,040 7,9Э1 10,164 12,316 12,210 10,075 15,296 15,014 13,266 I3,446 14,J94 14785 Nlt�S 35у14 � 25у005 26у_20 27у40 28уб5 z8.171 7 760 Э2�899 32_,080 J4_�72 38_`50 J9,460 36_,523 42_ 1�1_73 Э9�Ь47 45_ 8�5 Bei�mg 625 690 785 885 835 955 1,067 1,079 1,140 1,I40 1,I31 1,309 1,394 1,405 1,516 1484 1ЭЭ0 Тiвп�т 425 575 545 680 470 565 551 642 697 527 676 740 799 760 808 777 805 Heбei 6,280 6,630 6,475 7,250 6,905 6,400 6,789 6,862 7,162 7,Э52 7,355 8,287 9,0Ы 8,34Э 9,651 I0653 118Э4 Shanxi 2,920 2,630 2,430 2,235 2,1Э0 2,Э50 2,098 1,91Э 2,178 2,675 2,909 Э,054 2,Э42 2,979 3,353 3022 4035 Непал 4,765 5,Э30 4,805 4,Эб5 6,Э00 5,230 5,Э7Э 4,Э70 6,770 6,002 6,444 9,605 8,491 8,066 9,470 7543 9578 Shвanxi 2,875 2,750 2,025 2,825 2,880 3,1Э0 2,916 2,729 Э,250 2,890 Э,217 Э,338 Э,535 3,462 4,252 2715 282Э Shandong 7,Э00 8,255 7,940 8,480 8,220 9,9Э5 9,Э77 10,165 11,702 11,494 11,240 12,52I 13,638 11,508 1Э,02Э 1345Э 15430 о hw s 3�950 3.6Э0 3395 2_�55 3•5о0 3у_65 31877 4_�96 5_`70 6_�9 61 09 7.818 8347 8�539 8.304 8�_98 9s 38 Ne� Mongol 1,685 1,Э90 1,425 1,060 1,430 1,485 1,597 1,927 2,7Э3 Э,082 2,921 Э,9Э1 4,277 4,Э54 4,540 482Э 5184 Gалsu 900 890 675 610 690 675 744 790 895 1,141 1,231 1,425 1,455 1,580 1,233 1227 I259 Qmgha� 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nmtyua 70 85 65 55 70 115 142 17Э 29I Э10 ЭЭЬ Эб8 Э92 479 465 503 608 Xmliang 1,295 1,265 1,230 I,230 1,310 1,390 1,Э94 1.606 1.751 1.906 1.921 2,094 2,223 2,I26 2,066 2145 2387 Еяs 2.110 1�_70 2320 2у 45 j� 2,750 J.045 3377 J.582 3.6J6 4 14 Э�93 3�63 4 056 5.124 3•66I 5.615 � Shanghai 60 40 ЭО 40 25 35 40 59 51 52 58 ЬЬ 58 55 56 60 46 Q. liалgsu 1,ЭЭ0 1,Э90 1,735 1,945 1,905 2,080 2,216 2,417 2,411 2,4Э1 2,775 2,Э30 2,119 2,194 2,600 2,172 27pg � 2hel�ang 265 155 160 185 135 145 1Э2 111 118 112 115 12В 132 138 127 126 142 � Anhw 455 385 395 275 350 490 657 790 1,002 1,041 I,366 1,469 1,654 1,669 2,Э41 1,30Э 2719 S�RtL@1 �? 1.085 l,2� 1� �� ! ц� 1�6? �� ?.4_1.1 1у13 S�.l3 1_�69 L � 1�!? 1 �9 1_�52 1�79 hалgxi 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 12 16 7q gg б0 q3 gg Hubei 1,100 860 I,025 1,085 1,105 1,285 1,15Э 1,156 1,179 920 1,09Э 1,222 1,203 1,301 1,164 13Э7 1501 Нипал 270 215 210 190 200 240 202 209 221 184 207 2Э1 259 Э2Э Э15 372 Э89 �!и41! !0`0 11`5 ). 65 ], 90 �? 1.110 987 PI$ 1�2 8;7 1� 1�81 �2 1�_61 1у_76 1_�S1 1_�77 Guалgdong 65 65 65 70 65 70 70 74 79 65 104 135 151 159 158 177 219 Gиал8х� 985 1,110 1,200 1.220 1,070 1.040 917 895 981 716 1,222 1,188 1.102 1.219 1,544 1,308 1552 Fulian 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 22 22 34 3Э 30 4Э 59 61 69 Неtпвл па па па па па па na па па 14 16 25 29 40 15 Э5 Э7 Southweat 8� 00 10_�70 10уб5 10.845 10.675 11.165 9. 844 10 13 9, 679 9.946 10.8Э0 11Э74 11.994 10убб 11.i80 11y6t 12_,085 Sichuan 4,875 6,120 5,940 6,125 5,890 6,250 5,780 5,785 5,211 5,825 6,07Э 6,786 6,79Э 6,Э20 6,219 5726 6296 Gwzhou 1,775 2.115 1.825 1.935 2,095 2.175 1,577 1,950 1,970 1,Ы0 1,820 1.773 2,190 1,827 2,178 2546 2385 Уиппап 2,250 2.630 2,695 2.780 2.690 2,740 2,487 2,578 2.498 2,504 2.928 2.806 3.002 2.710 2.874 Э279 3Э93 X�тsng 0 5 5 5 10 5 5 5 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 Sum оГяЬоvе 60.035 62.300 59.205 60295 68.195 73.405 63.819 708 79.815 79`990 $0.410 98.823 100,827 95383 102.705 99377 111,987 5SB rotвl 60,0Э5 62,600 59,205 60,295 68,205 7Э,410 6Э,826 70,856 79,822 79,990 80,410 98,823 100,828 95,Э83 102,704 99,275 111 986 Source Сhиа Stat�sucal Yearbook апд Сhиа Agnculmre Yearbook, vanous years Table AIS: Sorghum Production, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 Region/province 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 (1000 tons) Norlhenst 3753 3 57Q M.LS 3425 4880 4480 2416 2672 2328 2 SU Lgm LU9 2714 2593 3036 3579 2659 Heilonglian 625 630 650 540 770 1,005 340 551 480 552 438 563 499 559 733 864 479 Liaoning 2,410 2,265 2,175 2,260 3,055 2,485 1,507 1,684 1,590 1,641 1,069 1,777 1,755 1,527 1,728 1,927 1,605 Jilin 720 675 700 625 1,055 990 569 437 458 611 457 557 460 507 575 788 575 North Z 885 LM 2090 2520 jalg !-09ý 2070 1750 1-7 LM 1608 1796 1312 1.257 1447 1 ý501 1.224 Beijing 40 30 25 50 30 20 24 19 25 29 22 19 14 12 11 21 15 Tianjin 115 115 95 130 105 140 101 Ili 120 130 108 128 100 86 102 147 99 Hebei 1,010 890 660 845 810 605 576 547 524 494 390 476 408 321 343 421 332 Shanxi 1,005 765 765 965 745 765 770 541 609 894 705 767 451 576 659 591 519 Henan 210 145 165 135 195 180 180 132 169 98 100 101 77 57 70 63 61 Shaanxi 165 140 120 135 105 130 94 Ili 98 161 104 116 89 86 103 106 47 Shandong 340 315 260 260 220 255 325 289 292 227 179 189 173 119 159 152 152 Northwes 49 480 5m 30 48 594 -- 99 M5 §- 444 4m 4m ýL4 ý60 655 854 46-3 Net Mongol 310 230 295 355 580 395 444 537 324 296 299 389 389 373 468 664 336 Gansu 95 90 75 55 65 65 55 55 59 89 80 Ili 78 93 80 91 57 Qinghai 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ningxia 30 30 25 is 10 10 8 7 Il 8 5 6 6 6 6 4 2 Xinjiang 115 105 95 90 75 60 38 49 50 61 70 88 71 88 101 95 68 EaIl 175 ILO 115 le 10 lm im lm lm ILO 99 il 49 2 L2 Shanghai 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CN Jiangsu 20 20 30 45 60 30 34 55 41 32 15 14 4 4 3 4 2 Zhejiang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Anhui 155 100 155 95 105 115 97 120 142 108 84 63 45 48 67 54 30 Central §0 m m 43 m §Q L7 41 47 il 40 a 19 Li i-0 a 41 Jiangxi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 Hubei 40 20 30 30 20 40 33 28 31 27 25 17 12 12 16 14 15 Hunan 20 15 15 15 15 20 14 12 13 12 13 12 15 16 21 14 22 South à 9 1 e 1 5 § 1 Il 2 L LO J-0 J3 16 2-0 m Guangdong 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 Guangxi 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 Fujian 5 0 5 5 5 5 4 6 6 6 7 7 7 9 12 14 16 Hainan na na na ria na na na na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 Southwest L9 5- P3 3zo m »-Q 400 "1 IL9 mi m m M7 274 lm 346 91 112 Sichuan 175 175 300 300 305 375 372 362 353 341 302 258 248 220 216 260 278 Guizhou 10 10 10 15 15 20 14 22 23 20 18 13 21 il 27 31 29 Yunnan 10 10 10 5 10 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 3 0 5 Xizang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sum or aboy 7623 6775 6650 6970 BJ55 IM MOI 5684 5428 $847 4100 5682 4932 4741 5M 6j34 4715 SSB total 7,625 6,775 6,550 6,970 8,355 7,715 5,609 5,384 5,428 5,847 4,500 5,682 4,932 4,741 5,510 6,334 4,755 Source China Agriculture Yearbook, vanous years ТаЫе AJ.6: Mi1kt Produelioo, Ьу Regiaa аод Proviпcq Chma, 1979-95 Reg�on/provmce 1979 I980 198I 1982 198Э 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 199Э 1994 1995 (1000 tons) . No[LhS81I 1� �0 18�5 1.8?S в,Z� Е.3...� 1�k Ll84 221 8� �4.1 �79 � S�0 493 �? � Heilonцliang 1,Э00 1,0Э5 995 875 1,255 1,155 6Э2 601 402 Э55 227 ЭЭ1 258 265 272 243 209 Liaonmg 250 235 225 295 450 ЭЭО 299 279 257 203 162 300 225 I85 232 270 228 1i1и 710 560 645 665 1,0Э0 720 4Э5 ЗОО 262 2Ы !52 208 156 140 140 1Э2 86 North Э_,105 J.000 Э�1_25 3,�_10 3s3S �.913 7,678 2,842 2�7 J�25_ 2i7$ ,7�О�Ь 2у_Ь5 �93 �,� 2�_10 21-82 Beq�ng 25 25 30 ЭО ЭО 25 29 21 18 15 11 12 9 9 6 8 9 Тiал1и 20 20 15 20 25 35 34 ЗЗ 27 1Э 17 12 12 7 8 7 5 НеЬе� 1,020 980 1,125 1,575 1,350 1,400 1,462 1,08В 1,218 1,146 982 1,1Э8 9Э7 754 1,084 1,026 881 Shanxi 930 960 965 1,290 1,210 975 884 632 698 916 846 877 441 720 787 6Э5 628 Непап 460 415 440 Э85 520 480 365 цб ЗОЗ Э19 340 336 229 222 280 254 221 Shaалxi 225 285 250 210 2Э0 255 198 216 155 229 162 185 115 153 210 2I1 85 Shалdong 425 315 300 400 470 745 706 626 578 487 424 456 422 729 Э96 Эб9 753 Northweat 695 S,7Q 7Э0 79�1 Q20 8�5 898 �87: 59� 5�5(1 39� 68Q 52� 580 5,54 509 285 Ne� Mongol 550 Э95 600 710 790 7Э5 786 38Э 521 468 319 594 466 486 484 414 239 Gansu 120 155 1I0 80 I15 110 96 84 64 70 65 70 51 79 62 83 40 Qmghai 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nиgxia 20 15 20 0 10 15 15 14 5 11 11 1Ь Ь 14 7 11 5 Xmliвng 5 5 0 0 5 5 1 1 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 � 1s 1s 14 � s_ � � 3 1 1 о 4 4 о 1 1 1 � sьапеьа� о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о р. далеsи о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о � гьедале о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о о Anhw 15 t5 10 5 5 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 tral ЭО 1�,1 � 20 75 20 �.7 70 18 ,1 1$ 14 20 � 15 12 L liалgxi 5 0 0 5 5 5 4 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 Huбei 25 10 15 15 ЭО 15 19 22 16 10 16 1Э 19 10 14 11 15 Нипап 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ouln io � 1о L о 1о з з 1 s а I б s_ ь ч_ Z Guangdong 5 5 5 5 0 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 2 0 Guалgx� 5 5 5 5 0 5 2 2 2 3 7 5 4 4 1 5 6 Fulian 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 2 1 Наиал па па па пв па па na па па 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 Southweat 10 � 10 10 5 5 5 7 Ь 10 7 8 9 7 9 11 8 Sichuan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gwтhou 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 7 Ь 10 7 8 9 7 0 11 8 Уиппал 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 Xizang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 $от оГ aбove Ь�125 5�_5 765 Ьу_80 7�5J5 7�025 5�76 4 ц0 4�5J8 4_ 521 Э�747 0•564 3363 3J87 4� 3i 97 7�_22 S$Btotal 6,125 5,445 5,765 6,580 7,540 7,025 5,977 4,540 4,5Э8 4,521 3,747 4,564 Э,ЗЬЗ Э,Э88 Э,999 Э,Ь97 Э,021 Source Chma AgnculWre Yearbook, varwus years Table A3.7: Production of "Other" Grains and Pulses, by Region and Province, China, 1979-95 Region/province 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1,000 tons Northeast M 1-175 0-5 685 1,00- 900 Im 0-0 06 L70 6 602 M 3.239 L31 m m Heilongpang 355 300 275 275 405 400 238 269 271 274 230 322 528 1,375 279 477 207 Liaoning 125 530 125 125 185 140 112 151 145 112 119 128 116 229 135 154 128 Jilin 250 345 285 285 440 360 224 150 160 184 147 152 136 1,635 223 350 187 North 5045 4295 5600 4975 4465 4995 4551 3399 3690 iM 3969 4759 3624 4418 5.393 5572 4965 Beijing 860 510 1,205 990 580 750 786 471 469 631 344 760 514 674 562 626 674 Tianjin 585 390 830 875 675 745 647 477 507 667 662 699 417 582 649 604 384 Hebei 30 30 33 40 25 35 30 29 27 20 18 21 17 15 26 16 12 Shanxi 590 475 440 400 400 "S 397 413 380 514 480 486 446 411 545 524 540 Henan 620 465 465 405 560 565 524 456 572 505 560 492 364 342 460 374 378 Shaanxi 2,165 2,050 2,465 2,105 2,070 2,310 2,129 1,513 1,704 2,053 1,785 2,281 1,846 2,379 3,135 3,407 2,966 Shandong 195 175 160 160 155 145 38 40 31 26 20 20 20 15 16 21 11 Northwest 2 165 2050 2465 2 105 2 070 2.310 2129 1513 1 704 2053 1 785 2281 1846 2379 3135 3407 2966 Nei Mongol 695 830 800 520 735 705 733 729 744 780 782 879 719 1,061 1,748 1,721 1,811 Gansu 910 660 1,170 1,205 885 I'loo 881 273 454 734 473 798 598 687 738 788 509 Qinghai 105 80 60 55 60 70 67 75 117 152 123 168 113 197 169 327 205 Ningxia 270 315 245 250 220 270 289 283 277 272 292 295 294 314 327 336 300 Xinjiang 185 165 190 75 170 165 159 153 112 115 115 141 122 120 153 235 141 1 East 6170 3995 4400 4710 U20 5085 4008 3893 4.357 4440 3530 3838 3667 3672 2 93Q 3 20t 3084 Shanghai 1,335 745 640 815 890 1.025 803 750 974 967 799 875 833 839 612 498 541 J Jiangsu 3,930 2,515 2,965 3,090 2,865 3,065 2,443 2,465 2,631 2,571 1,965 2,202 2,259 2,159 1,734 2,127 1,970 1 Zhejiang 510 450 395 415 450 560 330 251 235 290 237 251 241 250 202 177 204 Anhui 395 285 400 390 415 435 432 427 517 612 529 510 334 424 392 399 369 Central A95 fio-5- W m 720 800 747 43 68Q m 650 W 110 J L73 22 i -59 L_ Jiangxi 235 135 160 210 220 230 172 140 143 158 177 183 196 807 221 209 198 Hubei 40 30 35 40 35 30 39 32 34 34 42 44 64 393 87 92 119 Hunan 620 "0 420 485 465 540 537 471 503 507 431 430 450 375 451 458 417 South 4L 95- m J95- m I" W VA Lio IN M 198 220 1.673 255 224 230 Guangdong 45 65 75 80 50 50 48 45 49 48 58 66 71 439 95 37 114 Guangxi 340 425 135 55 45 35 30 31 28 27 39 32 42 426 63 70 90 Fujian 60 45 50 60 40 65 57 48 73 76 82 88 98 697 94 110 108 Hainan no no no no no no no no no 3 11 12 9 111 13 7 18 Southwest 2475 1 J46 2790 2730 2515 2445 2160 2026 2.316 2668 IM 2634 L " 4019 2811 3.353 3528 Sichuan 1,425 121 1,525 1,510 1,580 1,485 1,321 1,322 1,321 1,328 1,216 1,259 1,351 2,311 1,241 1,712 1,761 Guizhou 180 160 160 170 175 190 157 164 173 170 194 196 221 269 188 249 253 Yunnan 605 750 760 715 760 770 682 540 822 787 770 862 950 996 939 984 1,083 Xizang 265 315 345 335 255 340 401 346 349 383 401 317 383 443 443 408 431 Sum of Abov 17,925 14,001 16,815 16.13 J.IM 16.68 14JO4 12,168 JIM 1$.000 13,091 14,969 13,752 20.97 15.92 17,497 16.12 Source China Agriculture Yearbook, various years Note Both sweet potatoes and Irish (white) potatoes are included In recent years, both taro and cassava were excluded from the tuer category ТаЫе А3.8: SOybean PrOducti0n Ьу RegiOn апд PrOVince, China 1979-95 Rcgwn/Provmce 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199р 1991 1992 199Э 1994 1995 (1,000 tons) 122tг Ьe9IlS 3,98� 3 5_ � 3.900 3�960 4J50 4588 5252 5,295 5J21 3� 47 4�_03 4,178 4•564 6_� 94 6 17 5.469 Hedon�iалg 1,855 2,205 2,015 2,605 2,385 2,905 Э,137 3,7В0 3,8Э5 Э,844 2,918 3,44Э Э,098 Э,491 4,915 5,136 4,273 Liaonmg 530 5Э5 625 580 695 635 546 6Э5 492 451 242 427 36Э 319 498 51Э 41Э 1i1m 600 605 79(1 715 880 810 905 8Э7 968 1,026 687 9ЭЗ 717 754 1,081 1,068 78Э N3l.th �� ë�41U �.940 2у_30 t..i. ё 2�5 2.641 �Z 3у_52 2•749 � Ь`9 ё,86� �.7? t,�0? 4�7 4_ 245 3.634 Bei�иg 15 15 10 15 15 15 22 23 Э1 28 31 28 22 2Э 28 45 ЭЗ Тiалрп ЗО ЭО 25 25 25 35 47 59 67 61 бб бб 84 84 124 114 9Э НеЬе� 360 295 305 300 250 275 365 412 459 468 421 5Э4 566 440 915 987 786 Shanx� 140 130 125 175 170 160 177 176 211 285 278 Э02 159 225 736 295 220 Непап 795 920 1,540 745 1,280 970 1,032 749 1,104 699 8Э5 867 бЫ 620 1,050 1,091 I,067 Shaanxi 145 1В0 105 135 170 I65 183 210 250 299 264 293 262 265 ЭЗ5 ЭЬО 205 Shandong 715 840 830 7Э5 645 625 795 947 1 О30 909 784 772 98Э 749 1,269 1,Э53 1,2Э0 rthw 2� 210 � 1�S 350 325 393 520 502 619 513 615 569 572 1.123 1.220 69� Nei Mon8Bo1 130 125 195 245 245 2Э0 28В 410 Эб7 480 374 477 451 400 901 940 525 Gалги 45 50 35 Э5 50 50 64 68 77 79 71 77 62 106 104 110 74 Qmghai 0 0 0 Nmgxia 20 15 10 20 25 25 26 24 Э4 26 24 24 27 34 Э7 37 32 Xи�iang 20 20 15 25 ЭО 20 15 18 24 34 44 37 29 32 81 133 67 1 � 9zs 9�о 1_,soo 4s 1.555 1.245 1 вг 1.666 1�ьвв 1�64 1.s1a 1.146 бп ],089 1.sг1 1.492 1.Э14 � $hanghai 10 5 5 5 10 10 11 11 14 15 15 12 11 12 16 17 23 � W LanBsu 300 350 475 4В5 520 430 557 719 662 622 ЬО7 456 269 389 486 495 459 1 Zhe�iалg 105 120 115 130 110 120 110 117 1Э0 123 120 124 115 121 158 187 189 Anhw 510 495 905 625 9I5 665 704 819 882 704 776 554 277 567 861 793 643 �en1ro1 550 365 ¢�0 i,�Q �00 560 601 659 (§�8 597 7� � 614 723 958 1.073 1073 1�angxi 120 115 110 155 1Э0 1Э5 145 125 143 132 162 160 165 224 272 278 297 НиЬе� 275 115 175 160 I60 220 2Э8 290 276 245 294 264 206 247 352 424 Э95 Нипап 155 I35 165 205 210 225 218 244 249 220 258 240 24Э 252 3Э4 371 381 �lLU_Ch ЕЭ� � � Э� � �Z? � � �R 33,11 406 93 1� 70 ,4�18 .�З8 �. 640 Guangdong 100 115 120 145 110 120 118 127 129 12Э 1Э2 139 126 1Э9 I53 154 165 Guалgxi 95 100 140 215 165 160 142 140 122 107 161 136 135 159 2Э1 247 295 Fuyen 45 70 90 105 80 95 9Э 93 99 95 107 П 2 102 132 150 162 172 Натап 5 6 Ь 7 В 4 9 8 uthw 345 Э53 � 945 46� � SLq_2 � 529 5� 5� �7 572 5,�1 � 680 7�7 Su:huвn 210 205 225 260 275 320 336 346 324 318 Э19 328 340 335 30I 415 407 Gwzhou 70 80 100 100 100 135 110 140 121 110 130 128 135 88 125 151 138 Уиппап 65 10 75 85 90 100 96 95 84 94 102 101 97 В8 190 I14 I31 Х�тапg 60 I 0 1 Sumofabove 7.460 7.940 Q,_,725 9.030 9.760 9.695 10.500 11.611 12 84 11.602 10328 1100 9.712 10 ОЗ 15.Э08 15у_99 13_5, 044 NaPlTotal 7,460 7,940 9,325 9,030 9,760 9,695 10,500 11,614 12,184 1I,602 10,228 11,100 9,713 10,Э04 15,707 15,999 1Э504 $оигсе SSB, Сhиа Agnculturc Yearbook, (vanous issues) ТаЫе А3.9: Tnber РгодисНоп, Ьу Regioo апд Provineq Cbiдa, 1979-95 Region/provmce 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 199Э 1994 1995 1,000 tons orlh 980 !S 7� � 1.065 ],165 g-yQ 899 1у_08 J,24 1.144 1.271 1.172 1.409 1.546 1324 1.526 Hedonцliang 625 510 450 4Э5 615 625 4Э8 475 672 710 734 78Э 624 827 860 746 815 Liaomng 1Э5 105 90 95 145 180 157 15Э 135 191 121 191 2Э7 262 340 ЭОО 763 1i1m 220 100 245 215 305 ЗЬО 245 271 ЭО1 344 289 297 711 320 Э46 278 748 L�4LLh � �.59� 9� 2�0 L690 0�7.1� 9�.� В� 9� 2.1� �1: � $6�9 $�598 10•493 9�63 P,12Q Beqmg ЗО 25 20 15 20 25 Э7 29 30 29 27 27 28 30 29 32 29 Тiвпlт 20 25 20 ЭО ЗО 40 ЭЗ 26 25 16 22 20 23 21 21 16 18 НеЬе� 1,295 I,250 1,095 1,325 I,335 1,760 1,445 1,251 1,362 1,402 1,195 1,3Вб 1,Э06 1,190 1,Э60 I,422 1,377 Shanxi 5Э5 525 465 620 ЫО 740 642 480 542 787 7Эб 744 454 702 821 764 642 Непал 3,175 Э,525 2,850 2,185 Э,450 2,590 2,0Вб 1,782 2,Э29 2,175 2,452 2,537 2,309 2,495 2,960 2,541 2,860 Shaanxi 705 665 490 540 575 680 615 60Э 622 734 66Э 648 590 760 893 791 688 Shandong 5,545 5,555 4,285 4,945 4,670 5,280 4,Э73 4,00Э 4,784 4,040 7,220 4,120 Э,9Э9 Э,400 4,409 Э,497 Э,576 NoпhWesг р9� q�s г�О L р�,о � 1.075 989 9to t з 1.t7г 1.404 1.121 1 s t�447 �J.4 1.46о l.J. Ne� Mongol Э95 ЗОО Э75 415 420 500 482 364 ЭЗ7 617 422 6I3 481 64Э 6Э8 553 743 Gansu 420 490 320 270 390 360 447 458 41Э 548 5Э0 5Ы 480 641 569 617 602 QmBhai 70 75 55 45 55 65 84 92 88 99 I10 109 83 122 120 146 147 Nmgxia 65 65 45 20 Э5 40 40 45 Э5 65 76 84 44 64 80 94 93 Xиliang 40 25 25 20 20 20 22 30 37 44 Э4 Э5 33 44 40 50 46 E�sf 3�625 4.285 4�515 4.275 5J00 4�25 4.121 9.704 1.650 1�67� 4.435 4196 J.580 3_,850 3.872 3541 31973 1 � Shanghet 5 5 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 11 7 р� 7iалgsu 1,200 1,Э75 1,585 1,520 1,520 1,Э95 1,Э36 1,ЭЗ0 1,319 1,249 1,20Э 1,053 956 926 876 883 902 � Zhepaпg 645 780 725 785 790 760 686 602 659 Ы 3 675 648 657 638 604 571 708 Anhw 1,775 2,125 2,205 1,965 2,990 2,470 2,099 2,772 2,672 2,759 2,557 2,595 1,967 2,284 2,392 1,776 2,356 г 1 2�00 Z.225 1 5 2.370 3J15 2375 2.143 2.003 3.196 �070 2JS9 2�26 2й74 65 z.8гз 3.039 3.246 hanlуп 295 275 270 295 270 260 276 206 269 257 Э09 327 368 Э94 547 589 623 Huбei 955 875 920 1,070 1,0Э5 1,080 1,010 1,027 1,04I 975 1,115 997 1,066 1,13Э 1,178 1,242 1,352 Нипап 1,150 I,075 905 1,005 1,010 915 В57 770 В86 838 935 802 940 838 1,096 1,208 1,271 ои 2J80 2•500 2.480 i�7US 2.435 2.480 2.462 2.320 2.722 2.599 2.882 3�50 3�423 3�86 3j557 4143 4.313 Guangdong 1,390 1,Эб5 1,360 1,520 1,400 1,425 1,448 1,425 1,6Э2 1,434 1,535 I,671 1,766 1,70Э I,613 1,965 2,063 Guалgxi 175 170 180 270 275 220 209 2Э4 266 215 2Э3 249 281 315 42Э 506 506 Fulian 815 965 940 915 800 8Э5 805 661 824 784 9Э3 1,019 1,144 1,182 1,217 1,3Э5 1,398 Наlпал па па па па па па па па па 166 181 211 232 286 Э04 3Э7 746 ои h е� 6,780 6�05 6s050 6.155 6.520 6.225 6_`60 6.243 6•941 б� 6�40 5�952 б,_ 8_80 7s 40 8107J 7•981 8�752 S�chuan 5,810 5,365 5,135 5,085 5,405 4,995 4,981 4,890 5,62Э 4,817 5,342 4,504 5,251 5,874 6,242 5,997 6,620 Guvhou 500 505 380 510 555 625 549 706 705 710 796 771 931 899 1,107 1,198 1,Э46 Уиппал 470 5Э5 5Э5 560 560 605 630 647 Ы З 608 700 675 696 665 722 782 783 Xizang 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 3 Sum of яbove 28.460 8 6 970 6 680 29145 28.470 26.032 25J32 28221 27.22В 27,147 7 68 27.199 28•662 31.811 30351 32_�2 SSBtotal 28,460 28,475 25,970 26,680 29,245 28,475 26,0ЭЬ 25,ЭЭ7 28,22Э 27,228 27,147 27,681 27,199 28,662 71,811 70,251 32,6Э2 Source Сhиа Agnculture Yearбook, vanous yearo Note Both sweet potatoes апд lnsh (whrte) potatoes аге исlидед 1п recenl years, бoth taro апд cassave wете ехсlидед Ггот the tuer category -170- Table A3.10: Fruit Production, by Province and Region, China, 1984-95 Region/province 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1,000 tons Nortbeas I.U4 902 87 I.M LW 1.157 LZ25- 1.188 1.731 2.161 2,132 2.607 Heilongjiang 27 31 24 31 33 28 49 46 58 92 99 127 Liaoning 955 807 804 933 959 1,003 1,113 1,011 1,527 1,888 1,846 2,200 Jilin 60 64 59 100 122 126 133 131 146 181 187 280 North 4515 5338 5340 6454 6703 6503 6248 7024 8,985 11,722 14.90 18,130 Beijing 190 179 175 215 225 257 264 278 329 379 472 452 Tianjin 51 68 67 92 86 103 101 125 141 159 172 199 Hebei 1,348 1,602 1,699 2,002 2,002 1,854 1,755 1,971 2,266 2,633 3,565 4,320 Shanxi 386 452 429 447 498 420 406 396 506 604 867 1,026 Henan 410 574 612 778 748 767 639 637 878 1,251 1,705 2,117 Shaanxi 262 335 377 488 519 543 620 801 1,147 1,682 2,199 2,840 Shandong 1,868 2,128 1,981 2,432 2,625 2,559 2,463 2,816 3,718 5,014 5,929 7,177 Northwes 601 fJI 4 860 "2 1179 1231 1330 1344 1566 1826 1980 2271.81 Nei Monggol 46 68 59 65 105 71 69 81 88 118 134 182 Gansu 164 199 248 272 340 348 385 404 471 597 664 804 Qinghai 18 20 19 21 26 23 22 21 26 27 26 27 Ningxia 31 35 36 44 46 56 55 27 62 86 81 116 Xinjiang 342 492 498 590 662 733 799 811 919 998 1,075 1,143 E18 M3 62 UL5 IDA 1338 1859 M7 2121 2037 2664 E39 3903.323 Shanghai 30 41 44 47 68 88 94 87 163 164 161 217 Jiangsu 290 341 366 418 469 505 493 460 566 713 785 1,013 Zhejiang 307 446 521 709 516 988 1,070 1,345 1,024 1,489 1,759 2,146 Anhui 126 139 184 220 285 278 270 229 284 298 434 527 Centro 520 m 2L 1971 702 443 1068 1744 176 1628 1796 2744.03 Jiangxi 90 108 161 173 146 230 233 334 141 208 304 428 Hubei 156 217 238 357 216 444 269 465 338 564 684 1,147 Hunan 274 256 521 541 340 769 566 945 397 856 808 1,169 South 1.365 "90 3.053 4.184 4.298 4.366 §JJL3 6.324 7.126 7.5" 8.503 9.565 Guangdong 792 1,219 2,009 2,788 2,780 2,758 3,286 3,942 4,188 4,024 4,016 4,145 Guangxi 332 388 697 939 800 749 916 1,139 1,612 1,843 2,224 2,666 Fujian 241 294 347 457 535 699 758 1,105 1,172 1,538 1,981 2,393 Hainan 183 160 153 138 154 194 282 360 Southwes 1.048 LI 3A 1.302 19-0 I.U2 1.762 1.763 2.017 2.082 2.512 2.639 2.926 Sichuan 716 817 884 1,047 828 1,247 1,271 1,472 1,506 1,864 1,968 2,153 Guizhou 92 101 139 152 156 168 167 172 142 165 165 210 Yunnan 226 212 275 316 340 343 320 368 428 477 501 557 Xizang 14 4 4 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 5 6 Sum ofaboy 9.944 11.63 13.47 16.67 16,663 10,321 18.7 21,762 24.40 30,112 35.09 42.14 SSB total 9,845 11,639 13,477 16,679 16,661 18,319 18,744 21,761 24,401 30,112 34,997 42,146 -171- Table A3.11: Oilseed Crop Production, by Province, 1990-1995 Region Province 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 (1000 tons) Northeast 813 790 753 665 687 655 Heilongjiang 172 152 219 161 156 201 Liaoning 175 203 176 218 244 198 Jilin 467 435 358 286 287 256 North 4,864 4,711 4,073 6,013 7,216 7,525 Shandong 2,121 2,331 1,663 2,684 3,383 3,150 Hebei 749 729 663 805 1,068 1,099 Beijing 31 33 34 38 38 33 Tianjin 47 45 40 44 40 40 Henan 1,523 1,276 1,336 2,045 2,250 2,980 Shanxi 394 298 337 397 438 223 Northwest 1,937 2,006 2,103 2,095 2,153 2,113 Shaanxi 334 354 356 408 342 382 Gansu 337 325 365 375 399 317 Nei Mongol 694 718 814 726 650 702 Ningxia 62 72 62 63 70 56 Xinjiang 390 405 356 370 508 494 Qinghai 120 132 149 152 184 162 East 3,081 2,767 3,393 3,346 3,325 4,171 Zhejiang 483 456 501 386 346 500 Jiangsu 1,124 1,141 1,273 1,257 1,336 1,595 Shanghai 182 200 219 132 98 158 Anhui 1,291 971 1,400 1,572 1,545 1,918 Central 2,229 2,528 2,578 2,687 3,196 4,050 Hubei 958 1,063 997 1,117 1,378 1,894 Hunan 722 843 839 791 982 1,120 Jiangxi 549 622 742 778 836 1,036 South 1,063 962 1,163 1,310 1,288 1,472 Guangdong 589 518 614 672 647 710 Guangxi 252 241 293 369 359 453 Fujian 177 156 199 207 216 233 Hainan 45 47 57 62 66 76 Southwest 2,145 2,564 2,357 1,932 2,031 2,520 Sichuan 1,556 1,756 1,617 1,339 1,389 1,702 Guizhou 439 618 534 433 473 588 Yunnan 133 172 188 134 140 196 Tibet 17 18 18 26 29 34 Sum of Above 16,132 16,329 16,421 18,048 19,896 22,506 SSB Total 16,132 16,383 16,412 18,048 19,896 22,503 -172- Table A4.1: Nitrogen Fertilizer Application/Consumption, 1984-94 Region/province 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1,000 tons - effective basis Northeast LQ 1.004 Lj16 1.163 1.187 1.307 1.492 588 1.635 1.670 .L2 LM9 Heilongliang 214 187 224 254 265 308 370 392 433 468 505 512 Liaoning 498 492 503 476 500 537 574 610 628 654 663 673 Jilin 332 325 389 433 422 462 548 586 574 548 564 620 North &U3~ 3.628 3.750 3.3 4.005 4.466 LMj. 5.071 5.5 5.8 MU 6.220 Beijing 71 62 67 75 81 86 98 98 91 90 135 127 Tianjin 32 35 33 31 43 47 47 50 58 52 56 77 Hebei 756 725 774 778 833 885 921 982 1,004 1,155 1,272 1,286 Shanxi 274 250 268 277 297 310 344 360 367 376 382 402 Henan 967 957 990 914 1,012 1,234 1,373 1,458 1,485 1,690 1,618 1,768 Shaanxi 330 325 338 330 366 425 486 527 560 600 636 669 Shandong 1,313 1,274 1,280 1,327 1,373 1,479 1,541 1,596 1,589 1,920 1,714 1,891 Northwest 94 41.7 472 498 552 §M 75-9 M 884 Wl 977 1.097 Nei Mongol 95 113 126 144 164 188 209 237 258 280 268 323 Gansu 133 136 155 143 144 185 216 222 219 230 260 269 Qinghai 16 15 18 19 20 24 27 27 28 30 30 32 Ningxia 42 42 48 50 60 74 82 88 94 90 98 109 Xinjiang 108 Ill 125 142 164 193 225 265 285 288 321 364 Eat 2.508 2.51 2.118 222 3.032 2M 3249 3.28 1w 2= 3.494 3.693 Shanghai 120 106 132 133 134 148 161 161 138 170 157 184 Jiangsu 1,166 1,152 1,232 1,230 1,381 1,458 1,506 1,565 1,541 1,571 1,669 1,767 Zhejiang 564 572 613 632 706 690 678 683 682 596 620 683 Anhui 658 721 741 772 811 886 904 871 906 985 1,048 1,059 nki ~L~ 2 ~ L~4 2065 2048 M.43 2364 2.34 2.464 2.610 2861 Central 1.40 1.522 L223 18U 2&- &5 2d di 14 Add 21 &i Jiangxi 336 308 367 389 429 435 461 520 503 504 551 600 Hubei 622 625 728 807 842 843 912 1,000 1,022 1,090 1,151 1,296 Hunan 582 596 678 688 794 770 770 844 869 870 908 965 South 1.38 1.360 1.526 620 1232 L 1.852 L21 2 2.24 1.i26 1233 2.122 Guangdong 724 743 821 875 882 944 958 1,003 1,026 888 857 995 Guangxi 330 319 354 371 373 400 450 470 493 489 494 540 Fujian 324 298 351 374 416 440 437 438 497 470 505 516 Hainan 68 73 70 80 78 79 77 78 Southwest 1546 1.60 1I1 1604 L1 1_37 2&2 I.28 2.123 2.161 2263 ML4 Sichuan 1,063 1,096 1,232 1,097 1,070 1,263 1,391 1,405 1,378 1,370 1,435 1,532 Guizhou 199 196 230 229 230 244 263 303 287 341 358 368 Yunnan 278 266 308 277 285 325 355 412 450 450 462 510 Xizang 6 2 1 1 6 5 8 8 8 8 Sum of above 12153 12.04 1.12 13.268 14.171 15,361 1i.32 17261 17.551 18.3 18,822 20.223 SSB total 12,049 13,126 13,268 14,171 15,368 16,384 17,261 17,561 18,351 18,820 20,219 Source China Agriculture Yearbook, various years -173- Table A4.2: Phosphate Fertilizer Application/Consumption, 1984-94 Region/province 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1,000 tons - effective basis Nrheas 349 29 21 262 242 309 339 351 3_7 4 455 M Heilongian 103 71 100 93 86 157 171 192 201 253 289 276 Liaoning 182 124 129 128 121 119 132 128 131 115 122 125 Jilin 64 44 42 41 35 33 36 37 35 43 44 50 North 1.073 886 1.018 1.005 1.082 1.212 1.382 1.615 L1 2.034 1.922 2.02 Beijing 23 13 16 12 10 9 9 6 6 10 8 10 Tianjin 10 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 7 13 Hebei 241 198 221 234 242 249 261 303 290 363 427 396 Shanxi 78 64 78 81 87 103 131 145 154 163 176 190 Henan 323 322 361 326 363 433 520 606 645 680 731 767 Shaanxi 40 36 49 55 67 83 101 114 120 132 151 178 Shandong 358 249 289 293 309 329 354 435 450 680 499 538 Nrhwet 127 l2 1M 146 162 202 2d 261 30s 38 355 4;2 I Mongol 34 41 41 44 43 48 54 60 71 80 80 106 Gansu 36 30 35 41 48 70 92 100 102 112 124 130 Qinghai 8 7 7 10 8 9 12 13 11 12 11 12 Ningxia 7 7 9 8 12 14 13 14 14 10 17 20 Xinjiang 42 40 38 43 52 61 73 74 107 104 123 164 Eat 660 680 751 2 273 226 899 81 K.I 896 214 221 Shanghai 22 18 20 21 29 27 80 31 24 20 26 31 Jiangsu 304 305 331 341 332 340 362 386 406 383 417 441 Zhejiang 93 98 132 122 123 125 138 146 131 118 116 126 Anhui 241 259 268 286 289 304 319 318 320 375 355 393 Central 370 456 549 590 628 664 702 m 23 758 855 21 Jiangxi 75 118 141 144 160 161 178 189 194 188 208 219 Hubei 165 178 201 231 245 274 311 291 295 350 394 448 Hunan 130 160 207 215 223 229 213 216 234 220 253 246 South 354 353 400 438 437 50 496 532 54 54 622 657 Guangdong 152 161 178 206 183 219 201 205 205 242 260 272 Guangxi 104 107 115 124 128 131 148 169 182 177 190 212 Fujian 98 85 107 108 113 135 128 137 143 150 158 158 Hainan 13 17 19 21 14 15 14 15 Southwes 353 2 479 507 496 504 562 654 669 247 806 22 Sichuan 205 205 291 314 315 316 371 425 440 470 498 514 Guizhou 59 57 68 71 70 66 72 91 84 127 150 115 Yunnan 88 108 120 122 110 120 115 134 141 150 155 158 Xizang 1 1 2 4 4 4 3 3 Sum of abov 3.286 3.109 3.598 3.718 1M81 4.189 4.04 4.996 5.160 5.748 6.006 6.326 SSB total 3,109 3,598 3,719 3,821 4,189 4,624 4,996 5,157 5,751 6,007 6,324 Source China Agriculture Yearbook, various years -174- Table A4.3: Potash Fertilizer Application/Consumption, 1984-94 Region/province 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1,000 tons - effective basis Nothea 28 31 26 31 32 42 59 12 24 111 2 137 Heilongian 10 12 9 10 14 18 24 25 30 40 44 46 Liaoning 6 9 6 6 5 8 11 16 27 34 38 45 ilin 12 10 11 15 13 16 24 36 37 37 40 46 North 99 106 113 93 110 149 13 28 336 467 36 42 Beijing I 2 2 2 1 Tianjin I I I 1 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 Hebei 19 20 19 14 18 22 26 42 47 67 86 94 Shanxi 10 10 9 7 7 7 10 12 16 20 25 32 Henan 27 34 35 27 30 51 60 100 101 160 164 205 Shaanxi 9 6 12 7 13 17 23 22 26 38 45 57 Shandong 33 35 37 37 41 50 70 103 142 180 212 250 Northwes 1- 1 11 15 18 22 3 3 23 8 31 37 Nei Mongol 3 3 4 7 4 7 7 7 7 10 11 11 Gansu 3 3 3 4 7 7 5 5 6 8 7 8 Qinghai 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 Ningxia 1 1 2 2 Xinjiang 3 6 4 4 5 5 9 8 7 8 9 13 East 26 2 28 102 137 175 196 27 2A 26 296 Shanghai 2 1 1 13 1 1 2 2 2 10 4 5 Jiangsu 29 34 30 29 32 36 68 68 96 79 89 99 Zhejiang 21 21 16 27 37 60 54 60 54 44 51 54 Anhui 24 29 28 29 39 40 51 66 85 107 121 138 CentrI 123 245 224 24 226 340 38 432 46 469 525 576 Jiangxi 49 88 90 88 104 113 133 143 150 139 158 165 Hubei 42 47 44 53 53 66 73 93 101 110 127 149 Hunan 102 110 90 106 139 161 176 196 209 220 240 262 South 245 282 281 362 24 46 568 12 0l2 642 70-1 801 Guangdong 136 143 141 181 187 224 276 294 297 260 279 341 Guangxi 49 66 68 96 114 129 163 186 211 216 230 251 Fujian 60 73 72 85 83 104 120 131 156 155 173 189 Hainan 10 11 9 8 18 18 19 20 Southwim 42 0 44 51 53 63 79 wQ2 JL8 J60 170 198 Sichuan 21 19 17 20 25 20 29 50 52 70 78 88 Guizhou 10 10 12 15 10 20 22 24 26 30 32 41 Yunnan 11 14 15 16 18 22 28 34 50 60 60 69 Xizang I I 1 Sum ofabove 24 804 24 827 LW12 1.221 1.479 1739 1.960 2412 2.350 2.687 SSB total 804 774 919 1,012 1,205 1,479 1,739 1,960 2,123 2,348 2,685 Source China Agriculture Yearbook, various years -175- Table A4.4: Compound Fertilizer Application/Consumption, 1984-94 Region/province 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1,000 tons - effective basis Nrheas 307 377 398 46 451 464 536 583 595 629 698 738 Heilonglang 139 151 144 165 179 178 200 229 221 241 247 255 Liaoning 76 84 89 63 75 82 97 97 109 148 180 187 Jilin 92 142 165 188 197 204 239 257 265 240 271 296 N.or1h 482 729 625 I8 39 903 1112 1.330 1.521 1.8L8 2.045 2.3o Beijing 4 7 7 13 15 22 36 38 45 50 53 49 Tianjin 2 3 5 7 9 12 13 12 20 21 22 29 Hebei 109 161 139 139 163 200 244 280 294 351 408 431 Shanxi 54 74 52 42 53 68 81 90 103 115 131 147 Henan 85 123 101 89 101 125 179 233 280 350 413 483 Shaanxi 37 62 38 44 49 59 69 96 141 161 177 216 Shandong 191 299 283 304 349 417 490 581 638 770 841 945 Nothwest 17 145 180 166 183 229 2Li 3JL 112 330 43 387 Nei Mongol 31 42 46 44 49 49 75 73 73 90 88 97 Gansu 31 41 56 46 44 62 62 59 73 85 87 102 Qinghai 10 8 9 8 14 15 12 16 18 18 18 18 Ningxia 5 8 17 21 21 23 21 .24 28 30 30 33 Xinjiang 40 46 52 47 55 80 88 141 125 107 120 137 East 12 2L6 244 352 4Mo Al 3 642 781 22 1.021 1L86 Shanghai 1 5 3 4 5 8 7 8 9 Jiangsu 68 88 105 180 220 213 282 365 429 464 544 621 Zhejiang 15 20 26 57 55 59 77 81 96 98 95 113 Anhui 89 127 113 115 127 142 171 188 249 315 374 443 Central 21 12 1 31 18-2 215 220 356 3.M 477 57 656 234 Jiangxi 14 25 26 43 45 52 64 81 94 107 134 137 Hubei 60 67 68 89 100 134 190 169 233 280 330 391 Hunan 17 31 37 57 70 84 102 131 150 170 192 206 South 5 121 5 7I 221 268 340 393 512 571 23 745 817 Guangdong 24 57 82 119 130 176 189 249 248 267 313 349 Guangxi 12 29 33 45 63 75 101 128 149 172 203 227 Fujian 20 35 42 57 59 70 79 101 134 148 179 181 Hainan 16 19 24 34 40 36 50 60 Southwes 65 73 100 151 185 226 294 362 455 301 a4$ Sichuan 14 27 33 49 88 101 134 178 199 240 272 317 Guizhou 11 17 18 19 20 25 30 41 54 85 98 84 Yunnan 10 15 18 28 38 54 57 68 103 130 128 144 Xizang 5 6 4 4 5 5 5 7 6 3 3 Sum ofabov 1.265 1.796 1.808 2.087 2.412 2.809 3.416 4.055 4.624 5.289 6.009 6.710 SSB total 1,796 1,808 2,087 2,412 2,809 3,416 4,055 4,624 5,294 6,006 6,708 Source China Agriculture Yearbook, various years -176- Table A4.5: China: Output of Chemical Fertilizers 1,000 tons - effective basis year Total Nitrogen Phosphate 1984 14,602 12,210 2,360 1985 13,222 11,438 1,760 1986 13,957 11,592 2,340 1987 16,722 13,423 3,259 1988 17,402 13,656 3,692 1989 18,025 14,241 3,728 1990 18,797 14,636 4,114 1991 19,795 15,101 4,597 1992 20,479 15,705 4,622 1993 19,563 15,256 4,190 1994 22,728 17,363 5,044 1995 25,562 18,594 6,705 Source: China Statistical Yearbook, various years Output of Major Industrical Products -177- Table A4.6: China Fertilizer Imports year Total Urea NH4NO3 NH4SO4 KCI KS04 Superphos ompound (1,000 t) 1984 1985 12,832 7,005 35 311 105 2,073 1986 9,490 5,924 26 611 34 1,106 1987 10,895 5,565 48 1988 14,706 8,492 78 1989 13,933 7,940 1,118 141 964 1990 16,275 8,146 332 164 2,072 666 133 4,629 1991 18,175 7,005 494 253 2,432 424 202 7,033 1992 18,590 7,480 770 55 2,440 520 216 6,540 1993 10,210 3,607 328 68 1,730 570 172 3,560 1994 12,660 3,130 392 46 2,850 570 52 5,140 1995 19,910 6,960 3,860 440 7,300 Source: China Customs Statistics Table A5.1: Total and State Grain Procurements, 1979-95 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 (Million tons, trade grain) Total, all sourc 60.1 61.3 68.5 78.1 1025 117.2 107.6 115.2 120.9 120.0 121.4 140.0 1364 132.5 1074 1068 142.1 State, Total 59.3 58.8 62.7 73.7 98.7 111.7 793 94.5 99.2 94.8 100.4 956 98.5 96.6 89.9 89.6 92.4 Contract: Total 54.0 50.2 52.1 56.2 91 2 102.4 59.6 622 56.9 50.0 48.9 51.8 47.0 45 0 50.6 44 6 462 Rice 19.9 18 8 20.5 21.4 31.0 36.4 24.0 23 2 19.8 18.0 19.6 202 19.0 17.3 18.8 16.7 184 Wheat 14 9 12.6 12.2 14.6 26.2 32.1 23.1 22.6 17.7 17 0 169 17.0 15.1 178 18.6 17.0 17.1 Corn 16.1 15.8 16.2 17.0 286 28.4 10.5 13.8 17.2 12 0 10.2 125 11.0 9.3 11.1 8.6 9.3 Soybean 2.4 2.3 24 2.5 4.2 4.2 1.5 20 2.2 2.0 1.6 22 1.8 07 1.8 13 10 Negotiated Total 5 2 8.6 10.6 17.5 75 9.3 19.6 32.3 42.3 44.8 51.6 437 51.5 51 5 393 45.0 46.3 Rice 2.1 3.3 3.7 7.6 2.1 2.2 6.2 94 117 14.1 16.7 11.3 12.7 13.6 6.1 9.4 103 Wheat 0.7 1.3 2.0 4.7 1.4 2.2 3.5 5.9 105 9.9 11.7 85 13.2 167 13 7 153 14.1 Corn 1.8 2.9 3.5 3.7 2.9 3.6 7.2 12.3 14.8 15.5 15.7 18.8 19.2 15.4 153 2.6 15.0 Soybean 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.9 3 3 3.9 3.8 4.6 4.5 3.9 3 3 3.9 1.0 4.2 Source: China Commerce Yearbooks, various issues -179- Table A5.2: International and Domestic Cereal Prices International Domestic - Retail ($/ton) (Y/kg) 1992 1993 1994 1995 1995 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Maize Jan 109.31 94.21 127.23 106.96 156.13 0.67 0.73 088 1.44 1.79 Feb 113.62 94.38 123.22 106.69 164.81 0.71 0.73 0.92 1.50 1.66 Mar 117.00 97.14 119.40 109.70 184.86 0.64 0.75 0.92 1.56 1.68 Apr 108.52 100.55 113.23 109.30 190.37 0.70 0.77 0.97 1.67 1.73 May 109.64 98.59 109.59 111.97 204.02 0.74 1.01 1.68 1 67 Jun 110.90 92.76 112.16 119.86 197.55 075 0.81 1.06 1.71 1.68 Jul 10275 101.25 97.83 126.99 197.80 0.76 0.80 1.07 1.73 1.63 Aug 96.96 100.31 95.99 126.44 185.50 0.74 080 1.11 1.75 1.61 Sep 98.05 100.90 97.51 130.48 145.39 0.73 0.81 1.14 1.71 1.61 Oct 95.11 106.53 96.48 140.86 127.85 0.72 0.82 1.21 1.76 1.58 Nov 94.48 116.67 95.47 143.95 117.74 0.73 0.83 1.26 1 75 1.57 Dec 94.61 121.79 102.49 14865 117.69 0.75 0.88 1.38 1 73 1.45 Rice Jan 277.25 259.75 356.00 276.80 369.20 1.12 1.13 1.61 2.81 3 15 Feb 278.25 254.25 343.75 280.50 368.00 1.16 1.10 1.60 2.87 3 12 Mar 277.20 230.20 269.75 286.25 359.50 1.11 1.17 1.70 2.87 3.14 Apr 278.00 206.25 269.25 281.50 327.20 1.13 1.24 1.78 2.87 3 11 May 274.00 184.75 233.00 291.00 332.25 1.11 0.00 1.83 2.96 3.08 Jun 268.80 189.00 213.75 326.00 341.50 1.13 1.27 2.05 3 04 307 Jul 278.50 200.75 226.25 345.60 358.00 1.11 1.29 2 16 306 307 Aug 270.80 209.00 252.60 339.50 335.50 1.09 1.29 2.26 3.08 3 08 Sep 257.00 206.00 259.75 359.75 328.40 1.11 1.30 241 3.09 3 07 Oct 250.00 256.75 262.00 382.60 312.75 1.06 1.34 2.50 3.13 3.01 Nov 252.60 307.75 264.50 340.50 315.00 1.08 1.39 2.58 3.16 2.94 Dec 256.25 320.50 260.50 341.50 319.20 1.07 1.59 2.73 3.16 2.78 wheat Jan 170.12 155.79 153.22 156.16 206.88 0.81 0.80 0.95 1 49 1 71 Feb 177.10 148.81 146.97 154.32 21889 0.79 078 093 1 53 1 80 Mar 169.39 148.08 141.10 150.28 215 32 0.78 0 81 0 98 1 67 1 80 Apr 159.83 141.83 140.36 148.81 257.61 0.78 0.84 1 02 1 71 1 83 May 149.55 136.69 139.99 158.73 262.11 0.82 0.00 1.03 1.71 1.83 Jun 148.81 121.99 139.26 170.12 227.34 0.79 0.85 1.15 1.71 1 83 Jul 136.32 127.50 137.42 190.70 202.60 0.80 0.82 1.16 1.75 1 77 Aug 128.24 129.71 145.87 184.45 191.63 0.78 0.84 1.19 1 76 1 73 Sep 138 89 131.17 158.73 193.64 178.71 0.81 0.84 1.25 1.74 1 73 Oct 140.73 135.95 167.18 203.73 178.00 0 78 0.84 1.27 1 76 1.72 Nov 147.71 146.61 162.04 203 93 176.41 0.82 0.85 1.35 1 76 1 70 Dec 147.71 158.73 164.61 208.92 175.70 0 79 0.92 1 48 1 79 1 65 Table A6.1: Cereal imports and Exports, 1987-95 Exports Imports Net Imports Exports Imports Net Imports Exports Imports Net Imports Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value (1000 ton) (USS ml (1000 ton) (USS mil (1000 ton) (US$ mil) (1000 ton) (US$ mi. (1000 ton) (US$ md (1000 ton) (USS mit) (1000 ton) (US$ mi (1000 ton) (USS mi (1000 ton) (USS mit) Total what Ri 1985 8,8798 1,3508 6,171 1 8575 -2,7087 -4933 1985 130 26 5,6324 7590 5,6194 7564 1985 1,0190 2263 3132 555 -7058 -1708 1986 9,0945 1,2680 7,2824 8191 -1,8121 -4489 1986 75 1 1 5,7535 6437 5,7460 6426 1986 9565 1857 3190 489 -6375 -1368 1987 5,2128 538 7 15,5078 1,6160 10,2950 1,0773 1987 68 07 13,2000 1,3624 13,1932 1,3616 1987 1,0216 1871 5107 798 -5109 -1073 1988 5,100 1 6333 15,0477 1,8267 9,9476 1.1934 1988 67 0.9 14,546 5 1,7310 14,5398 1,7302 1988 6,9979 1810 3103 749 -6,6876 -1060 1989 4,8364 6562 16,3980 2,9387 11,561 6 2,2825 1989 I 3 02 14,8804 2,581 2 14,8792 2,581 0 1989 3149 944 1,201 6 3036 8866 2092 1990 1,0972 5397 13,6079 2,3248 12,5107 1,785 I 1990 32 06 12,5273 2,1565 12,5242 2,1560 1990 3252 839 56 I Il 1 -269 I -728 1991 8,919 I 1,071 6 13,263 I 1,6097 4,344 0 538 I 1991 1 7 03 12,3677 1,4595 12,3660 1,4593 1991 6878 151 6 1404 394 -5475 -1122 1992 11,9279 1,4850 11,5140 1,6772 -4139 1922 1992 27 03 10,5813 1,5037 10,5786 1,5034 1992 9524 1,1136 1036 390 -8488 -1,0745 1993 13,0568 1,4733 7,2943 9973 -5,7625 -4760 1993 864 82 6,4239 834 I 6,3375 8259 1993 1,4072 2470 962 350 -1,311 0 -212 I 1994 10,8393 1,5320 9,1320 1,2812 -1,7073 -2508 1994 107.1 101 7,2993 9606 7,1922 9505 1994 1,5188 4945 513 8 1395 -1,0050 -3550 1995 4180 76 1 20,270 1 3,581 5 19,852 1 3,5054 1995 162 1 6 11,5900 2,0264 11,5738 2,0248 1995 500 162 1,6400 4336 1,5900 4173 1996 1,2400 3673 10,8300 2,5753 9,5900 2,2080 1996 8,2500 1,8904 1996 2600 Ill 5 7600 2865 5000 1750 00 1987-91 cereals only, preparations excluded 0 Corn Bry Other Cereals 1985 5,957 3 7277 800 102 -5,8773 -7175 1985 399 46 399 46 1985 1,8905 39421 1055 283 1,7850 3660 1986 5,7058 609 1 683 I 679 -5,0227 -5412 1986 3904 304 3904 304 1986 2,4247 47221 1363 282 2,2884 4440 1987 3,9162 3232 1,5419 1505 -2,3743 -1727 1987 211 1 212 211 1 212 1987 2683 276 44 1 2 1 2242 255 1988 3,911 7 3926 1094 121 -3,8023 -3805 1988 814 86 814 86 1988 4838 589 01 00 483 7 589 1989 3,501 5 4388 680 93 -3,4335 -4295 1989 49 22 2546 442 2497 419 1989 1,0135 1205 07 05 1,0128 1200 1990 3,4043 4036 3688 476 -3,0355 -3560 1990 6524 1091 6524 1091 1990 3646 51 7 33 05 3613 512 1991 7,7819 8645 05 01 -7,7814 -8643 1991 02 01 7519 1102 7517 1102 1991 4474 552 27 04 4447 548 1992 10,3402 1,1872 01 00 -10,3400 -1,1872 1992 03 01 8289 1343 8286 1342 1992 6323 797 01 02 6322 795 1993 11,0973 1540 02 01 -11,0970 -1539 1993 03 01 7738 1279 7735 1279 1993 4656 64 0 1 03 4655 637 1994 8,7400 9443 06 02 -8,7394 -944 1 1994 01 00 1,3177 1789 1,3175 1788 1994 473 2 83 1 06 2 1 4726 810 1995 1100 132 5,1800 816 1 5,0700 8028 1995 01 00 1,3177 1789 1995 2425 45 1 5873 650 -3448 -199 1996 1600 303 4400 727 2800 424 1996 1996 Table A6.2: CHINA - Trade in Food Commodities, 1987-1996 Year Food and Live Animals' Live Animals (chiefly for food)f Meat and Meat Preparations' Dary Products and Eggs Fin and Shell Fish' Cereals and Cereal Preparations' Vegetables and Fruits' Exports Imports Net Exports Exports Imports Net Exports Exports Imports Net Exports Exports Imports Net Exports Exports Imports Net Exports Exports Imports Net Exports Exports Imports Net Exports (million US Dollars) 1986 1987 4,781 2,443 2,337 347 13 335 520 18 502 70 49 21 721 58 663 579 1,688 (1,109) 1,290 55 1,235 1988 5,890 3,476 2,414 386 17 370 585 28 557 70 70 (0) 969 92 877 681 1,855 (1,174) 1,618 75 1,542 1989 6,145 4,192 1,953 395 11 384 657 47 610 60 69 (9) 1,039 118 921 719 2,983 (2,264) 1,623 89 1,534 1990 6,609 3,336 3,274 430 14 416 791 54 737 55 81 (26) 1,370 102 1,267 614 2,353 (1,740) 1,760 83 1,676 1991 7,226 2,799 4.427 439 20 419 906 62 844 57 68 (1l) 1,181 122 1,059 1,169 1,648 (479) 1,946 66 1,880 1992* 8,354 3,146 5,208 479 20 459 1,046 78 968 60 65 (4) 1,569 329 1,240 1,692 1,731 (39) 2,024 93 1,931 1993* 8,408 2,208 6,200 453 19 434 1,102 88 1,014 56 so 6 1,554 368 1,186 1,659 1,050 609 2,162 96 2,066 1994 10,017 3,119 6,898 468 23 445 909 89 820 55 79 (24) 2,320 578 1,742 1,687 1,303 384 2,889 102 2,787 1995 9,954 6,131 3,822 503 37 467 1,371 97 1,274 62 61 1 2,853 493 2,360 285 3,629 (3,344) 3,342 184 3,158 1996 10,232 5,672 4,560 486 47 439 1,437 162 1,275 75 55 20 2,855 601 2,254 525 2,595 (2,070) 3,118 299 2,819 Year Sugars, Sugar Preparations, etc Coffee, Tea, Etc Feed Stuff for Animals"' Miscellaneous" Oilseeds" AmmalNegetable Fats/Otls" Total Foods" Exports Imports Net Exports Exports Imports Net Exports Exports Imports Net Exports Exports Imports Net Expons Exports Imports Net Exports Exports Imports Net Exports Exports Imports et Exports 00 1986 1987 156 299 (144) 488 78 410 542 135 407 67 51 16 674 62 612 81 349 (268) 5,536 2,854 2,682 1988 Ill 866 (755) 524 106 419 863 324 538 84 43 41 684 38 646 74 369 (295) 6,648 3,883 2,765 1989 237 441 (205) 568 69 499 744 324 420 46 42 5 645 14 631 86 875 (789) 6,876 5,081 1,795 1990 318 389 (72) 534 30 504 632 182 450 107 46 61 619 21 598 161 982 (821) 7,389 4,338 3,051 1991 202 270 (67) 491 55 436 694 434 259 141 54 87 741 20 721 150 719 (568) 8,118 3,538 4,580 1992* 751 273 479 499 60 439 492 461 30 Ill 47 65 469 31 438 140 540 (400) 8,962 3,717 5,245 1993* 725 273 452 510 53 456 450 307 143 122 62 61 434 29 406 206 516 (309) 9,049 2,752 6,296 1994 486 448 38 494 60 434 467 348 119 242 89 153 666 62 604 495 1,809 (1,314) 11,178 4,991 6,188 1995 379 936 (558) 516 75 441 351 421 (70) 292 83 209 522 110 413 454 2,601 (2,146) 10,930 8,842 2,089 1996 476 428 48 552 88 464 365 1,298 (933) 339 97 242 478 325 153 375 1,697 (1,322) 11.085 7,694 3,391 Source Chima Customs Statistics, various years 0 Trade was reported only in the Harmonized Commodity Coding System. adjustments were made as indicated below I/ SITC Commodity Category 0 8/ SITC Commodity Category 06 (HCCS categones 0409 and 17 for 1992 and 1993) 21 SITC Commodity Category 00 (HCCS category 01 for 1992 and 1993) 9/ SITC Commodity Category 07 (HCCS categories 09 and 18 for 1992 and 1993) 3/ SITC Commodity Category 01 (HCCS categories 01, 02, 1601, and 1602 for 1992 and 1993) 10/ SITC Commodity Category 08 (HCCS category 23 for 1992 and 1993) 4/ SITC Commodity Category 02 (HCCS categones 0401-0408 for 1992 and 1993) 11/ SITC Commodity Category 09 (HCCS category 21 for 1992 and 1993) 5/ SITC Commodity Category 03 (HCCS categories, 03, 1603, 1604 and 1605 for 1992 and 1993) 12/ SITC Commodity Category 22 (HCCS categories 1201-1208 for 1992 and 1993) 6/ SITC Commodity Category 04 (HCCS categories 10, 11, and 19 for 1992 and 1993) 13/ SITC Commodity Category 4 (HCCS category 15 for 1992 and 1993) 7/ SITC Commodity Category 05 (HCCS categories 07, 08, and 20 for 1992 and 1993) 14/ Sum of SITC Commodity Categories 0, 22, and 4 -182- Table A7. 1: State Investment in Agricultural Research YEAR Agn Research expend Expenditure per Scientist As a percentage of (In 1990 Constant (In 1990 Constant total R&D expend Million Yuan) Yuan) (%) 1953 1749 na 12.42 1954 33.03 na 11.25 1955 54.40 na 10.80 1956 13017 na 10.36 1957 128.23 na 1039 1958 270.06 na 1024 1959 45269 na 1017 1960 771.33 na 10.11 1961 386.97 63,583 1023 1962 266.22 39,405 1037 1963 379.26 47,136 1025 1964 51027 72,020 10 19 1965 585.14 62,420 10 16 1966 541 66 52,665 10 16 1967 337.36 32,426 10.26 1968 325.32 30,845 1027 1969 531 15 51,508 10.16 1970 658 12 64,730 10 12 1971 614.00 71,196 7.45 1972 801.02 79,175 10.12 1973 76390 70,614 1014 1974 762 14 57,020 10 15 1975 884.17 55,330 10 18 1976 862.69 49,855 10 19 1977 898.59 47,449 1025 1978 1,147.10 52,448 1033 1979 1,320.61 58,691 10.30 1980 1,296.82 47,447 10.33 1981 1,213.38 41,248 10.38 1982 1,223.33 36,087 10.06 1983 1,518.60 42,547 10.48 1984 1,767 09 45,060 1046 1985 1,766.21 40,651 10.50 1986 1,772.81 38,387 1027 1987 1,646.97 32,365 10.13 1988 1,836.00 33,233 12.79 1989 1,794.13 32,102 13.61 1990 1,666.65 27,876 11 98 1991 1,841.40 30,632 11 85 1992 2,196 00 36,056 13.76 1993 2,278.57 36,242 13.68 1994 2,350.00 37,609 na Source: Fan, Shenggen; "Data Survey and Preliminary Assessment of Agricultural Investment in China", A report to Food and Agriculture Organization, Jan. 30, 1995. Table A7.2: State Investments in Water Conservancy and Expanded Irrigated Area Year Total New costruct. Expansion Replacement Irrigated Area (million ha) (1990 constant million Yuan) 1985 2,861.00 44 1986 2,720.20 44.2 1987 3,165.30 1,234.90 795.6 1,026.00 44.4 1988 3,107.20 1,176.10 840.8 968.7 44.4 1989 3,253.80 1,440.70 804.5 900.8 44.9 1990 4,321.00 1,766.00 1,160.00 1,282.00 47.4 1991 5,161.90 1,945.20 1,716.10 1,385.10 47.8 1992 6,962.80 3,170.70 2,213.30 1,507.20 48.6 1993 7,253.80 3,753.20 1,966.70 1,426.20 48.7 1994 7,385.10 4,287.10 1,585.60 1,330.60 48.9 1995 9,315.90 5,570.30 1,820.20 1,802.70 49.3 a/ deflated by Overall industrial Products, Rural Retail Price Index. Source: China Statistical Yearbook, various issues -184- Table A7.3: Incremental State Grain Storage Capacit Year Area Volume (1000 mi) (1000 tons) 1985 1,097.2 1986 1,091.0 1987 911.2 2,239.3 1988 562.0 160.0 1989 321.6 754.3 1990 424.2 1,591.0 1991 1,709.7 1,150.9 1992 1,663.4 3,175.8 1993 683.0 305.7 1994 430.2 1,135.1 1995 638.8 6,506.0 -185- Table A8.1: Coastal Port Berths Capacity Total all sizes >10,000 t (number) 1986 686 197 1987 759 212 1988 893 226 1989 905 253 1990 967 284 1991 968 296 1992 1007 312 1993 1050 342 1994 1282 359 1995 1519 394 Source: China Statistical Yearbooks various issues Table A8.2: Major Imports and Exports (volume) Imports Iron Ore Petroleum Fertilizer Steel Prod. Grain (million tons) 1990 14.3 6.1 16.3 4.2 13.7 1991 18.5 10.6 18.2 3.6 13.5 1992 25.2 19.2 18.6 7.1 11.6 1993 33.0 33.0 10.2 30.2 7.3 1994 37.3 25.2 12.7 22.8 9.0 1995 41.2 31.5 19.9 14.0 20.4 1996 43.9 38.4 18.6 16.0 10.8 Exports Coal/Coke Petroleum Grain (million tons) 1990 18.6 29.2 5.8 1991 21.0 22.6 10.8 1992 21.1 26.9 12.0 1993 21.4 23.1 13.3 1994 28.3 22.2 11.0 1995 37.5 23.0 0.6 1996 36.8 24.5 1.2 Source: China's Customs Statistics, monthly, various issues -186- Table A8.3a: Grain Throughput of Major Ports, 1994 Throughput Outflow Inflow Port Total Foreign Domestic Foreign Domestic Foreign (1,000 tons) Dalian 10,141 8,055 2,036 6,804 49 1,252 Qinhuangdao 2,421 1,621 800 1,285 0 336 Tianjin 578 2,630 80 1,034 3 1,595 Qingdao 578 460 117 147 0 314 Yantai 308 279 22 63 6 217 Shanghai 4,375 1,733 1,332 573 1,310 1,160 Lianyundao 1,138 966 169 177 4 789 Zhangjiagang 653 257 185 162 211 95 Nantong 172 81 41 29 50 52 Ningbo 985 585 337 11 63 574 Xiamen 890 604 93 3 193 601 Zhanjiang 1,159 782 179 25 198 757 Huangpu 4,742 1,171 1,660 24 1,912 1,146 Fangcheng 379 363 6 - 10 363 Total 28,519 19,587 7,057 10,337 4,009 9,251 Bureau of Customs - Total 11,040 9,040 Table A8.3b: Grain Throughput of Major Ports, 1995 Throughput Outflow Inflow Port Total Foreign Domestic Foreign Domestic Foreign (1,000 tons) Dalian 5,456 3,166 2,242 590 48 2,576 Qinhuangdao 1,720 1,027 689 48 4 979 Tianjin 2,691 2,619 62 616 10 2,003 Qingdao 1,044 955 53 8 36 947 Yantai 784 684 74 0 26 684 Shanghai 7,760 3,069 3,248 41 1,443 3,028 Lianyundao 1,731 1,515 206 38 10 1,477 Zhangjiagang 1,498 636 682 0 180 636 Nantong 464 337 77 0 50 337 Ningbo 1,613 1,010 436 3 167 1,007 Xianen 1,379 952 139 0 288 952 Zhanjiang 1,878 1,388 162 0 328 1,388 Huangpu 7,134 2,618 2,858 6 1,658 2,612 Fangcheng 786 740 1 1 45 739 Total 35,938 20,716 10,929 1,351 4,293 19,365 Bureau of Customs - Total 640 20,400 Source: Survey of individual ports. -187- Table A8.4: Grain Traffic by Port Type Inflow Outflow Total Grain Domestic Foreign Total Domestic Foreign Total Traffic (million tons) Coastal Ports 1981 2.33 14.44 16.77 3.12 1.30 4.42 21.19 1982 2.21 15.48 17.69 3.82 1.12 4.94 22.63 1983 2.06 13.18 15.24 2.88 1.30 4.18 19.42 1984 2.63 10.15 12.78 3.66 2.83 6.49 19.27 1985 2.35 5.97 8.32 2.65 7.91 10.56 18.88 1986 4.45 7.55 12.00 4.43 8.85 13.28 25.28 1987 4.34 16.29 20.63 5.61 6.49 12.10 32.73 1988 6.01 15.33 21.34 6.70 7.17 13.87 35.21 1989 6.19 16.58 22.77 6.74 6.56 13.30 36.07 1990 4.92 13.72 18.64 5.16 5.83 10.99 29.63 1991 5.43 13.45 18.88 7.78 10.86 18.64 37.52 1992 7.53 11.75 19.28 8.19 13.64 21.83 41.11 1993 7.29 7.52 14.81 6.33 15.35 21.68 36.49 1994 8.69 9.13 17.82 8.08 13.46 21.54 39.36 1995 8.90 20.30 29.20 13.52 0.42 13.94 43.14 Inland Ports 1985 1986 1987 50.50 24.70 75.20 1988 37.80 22.60 60.40 1989 46.90 21.60 68.50 1990 47.10 22.20 69.40 1991 51.70 25.00 76.70 1992 49.80 25.40 75.30 1993 34.00 22.70 56.70 1994 30.70 19.50 50.20 1995 41.40 22.40 63.80 Sources: 1981-87: Ministry of Communication, private inquiry 1988 - date: China Commerce Yearbooks, various issues Note: Prior to 1987, international export statistics quoted by the Ministry of Communication differed marginally from that reported by the Customs Bureau. -188- Table A8.5: Rail Traffic Year Grain Total Volume Turnover Volume Turnover (mil. tons) (bil. t/km) (mil. tons) (bil. t/km) 1984 35.87 28.36 1,212.15 723.48 1985 45.03 42.59 1,275.16 811.16 1986 46.51 42.41 1,322.19 875.01 1987 55.44 57.33 1,369.49 945.57 1988 54.64 55.54 1,405.55 986.02 1989 53.19 53.61 1,468.05 1,037.30 1990 54.32 56.55 1,462.10 1,060.12 1991 62.16 66.86 1,478.98 1,094.81 1992 64.09 71.70 1,523.17 1,154.85 1993 66.06 77.69 1,566.60 1,192.34 1994 75.48 100.99 1,571.50 1,260.68 1995 67.11 89.92 1,593.46 1,283.60 Source: China Statistical Yearbook, various issues -189- LIST OF REFERENCES Alexandratos, N. 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