Uganda - Forestry Rehabilitation Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 15382 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT REPUBLIC OF UGANDA FORESTRY REHABILITATION PROJECT (CR. 1824-UG) FEBRUARY 14,1996 Agriculture and Environment Operations Division Eastern Africa Department Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS At time of ICR Ush 929 = US $ 1.00 (Sept. 1995) Ush 150 = Nkrl.00 Ush 1,246 = ECU 1.00 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES m3 cubic meter M million ha hectare Ush Uganda shilling Nkr Norwegian Crown ECU European Currency Unit FISCAL YEAR July I - June 30 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS BOU Bank of Uganda DANIDA Danish International Development Agency DCA Development Credit Agreement EDF European Development Fund EU European Union FD Forestry Department, GOU GOU Government of Uganda IDA International Development Association NFS Norwegian Forestry Society NGO Non-governmental Organization NORAD Norwegian Aid SAR Staff Appraisal Report TA Technical Assistance FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT REPUBLIC OF UGANDA FORESTRY REHABILITATION PROJECT (CR. 1824-UG) CONTENTS PR E F A C E ............................................................................................................................ i EVALUATION SUM M ARY ............................................................................................. ii PART I: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT................................... A. STATEMENT/EVALUATION OF OBJECTIVES.......................................... B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PROJECT OBJECTIVES ..............................................2 C. IMPLEMENTATION RECORD AND MAJOR FACTORS AFFECTING TH E PR O JE C T ................................................................................................... 6 D. PROJECT SUSTAINABILITY ..........................................................................7 E. BANK PERFORMANCE ..................................................................................8 F. BORROWER PERFORMANCE.......................................................................9 G. ASSESSMENT OFOUTCOME .......................................................................9 H . FUTURE OPERATION ..................................................................................10 I. LESSON S LEARN1ED ...................................................................................... PART II: STATISTICAL ANNEXES..................................................................12 APPENDICIES MAP This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT REPUBLIC OF UGANDA FORESTRY REHABILITATION PROJECT (CR. 1824-UG) PREFACE 1. This is the Implementation Completion Report (ICR) for the Uganda Forestry Rehabilitation Project, for which Credit Cr. 1824-UG in the amount of SDRIO million (US$13.775 million equivalent) was approved on July 6, 1987 and made effective on January 11, 1988. 2. The Credit was closed on December 31, 1994. The Credit was completely disbursed with the last disbursement taking place in May 1995. 3. The ICR was prepared by staff of the FAO/World Bank Cooperative Programme (CP) on behalf of AF2AE Division of the Africa Region and reviewed by Sushma Ganguly, Division Chief (AF2AE) and S. Agarwal, Project Adviser (AF2). The ICR is based on information obtained from the project files and on the findings of an ICR mission which visited Uganda in September 1995. No comments on the ICR were received from cofinanciers. The Borrower contributed to the preparation of the ICR by providing input to the Aide-m6moire drafted by the FAO/CP completion mission. The Government (Forestry Department, Ministry of Natural Resources) has also prepared a draft Implementation Completion Report for the project; a copy of the Government's written assessment of the project's performance is available in project files. Comments from the Borrower on the Bank's draft completion report have been appropriately reflected in this ICR. ii IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT REPUBLIC OF UGANDA FORESTRY REHABILITATION PROJECT (CR. 1824-UG) EVALUATION SUMMARY Introduction 1. During the period 1980-88, IDA supported the agricultural sector in Uganda by providing four credits which focused on sector reconstruction, agricultural development and sugar rehabilitation. In 1990, IDA provided further assistance to the sector by making available some US$ 121 million for an agricultural sector adjustment credit and a livestock services project. Project Objectives 2. The main objectives of the Forestry Rehabilitation Project were to (i) increase the production of woodfuels and poles for the urban population; (ii) increase the production of wood products for the rural population and conserve soil fertility; (iii) manage and conserve Uganda's natural forests for sustained timber and charcoal production by the private sector, as well as improve revenue collection from logging, environmental protection and nature conservation; (iv) increase the productivity of the softwood plantations for sustained production of timber by the private sector, and encourage a shift in exploitation of timber from natural forests to softwood plantations; (v) provide institutional support to the Forestry Department (FD), and create the management and information base for long-term planning, development and conservation of Uganda's forest resources. To achieve these objectives, the project included components for peri-urban plantations and pilot wood farms,farm forestry, rehabilitation ofnatural forest management, rehabilitation ofsoftwood plantations, strengthening of the Forestry Department and training; some six co-financing agencies/multi- and bilaterals undertook the funding of these components along with the Government. 3. In general, the project's objectives were in line with GOU's national development objectives and priorities. The project design reflected balanced objectives of forestry production, resource conservation and environmental protection. It also endeavored to involve the private sector and Non- Governmental Organizations (NGOs) in forestry development. However, the project design was complex and, its objectives were ambitious and demanding for the limited managerial capacity of FD at the time the project was initiated. Implementation Experience and Results 4. The planting achievements under the Peri-urban Plantations and Pilot Wood Farms component have been substantial. In recent years the rate of planting by private farmers had, in some locations, surpassed that of the FD. Sustainability of private planting is confirmed by the minimal subsidies provided in some locations, and by the harvesting of private plantations as cash crops. 5. The early achievements under the Farm Forestry component were encouraging, with the successful establishment of a large number of nurseries in many districts throughout Uganda. Some rural tree planting from that era remains in evidence. The majority of the nurseries have become semi- privatized small businesses, run by retrenched FD staff. However, as a result of the premature halting 111 of component activities (DANIDA withdrew its support in 1991), the component was only partially successful. 6. The Rehabilitation ofNatural Forest Management component was also successful in that (supported by the activities under the component for Forest Department Rehabilitation), it led to improved conservation and management of natural forest resources and resulted in a steady increase in recorded production from selective felling in natural forest reserves. The lengths of forest boundaries treated greatly exceeded SAR targets, which has contributed markedly to restoring the integrity of Forest Reserves. The identification and demarcation of Nature Reserves and associated buffer zones was given priority, and 50% of all forest reserves were assigned to these categories. This emphasis in operations, combined with improved boundary control, has tended to mitigate against forest production and charcoal-making, both legal and illegal. 7. Given the over-mature age-structure of Uganda's industrial softwood plantations, the key target for the Rehabilitation of Softwood Plantations component was for clearfelling and replanting. Less than 20% of this target was achieved because the private sector processing capacity was inadequate to respond fully to an expanding domestic market. Overall, however, this component succeeded in promoting the use of softwoods in the market as a partial substitute for hardwood from natural forests, and in view of its mixed performance, the component is judged to have been only partially successful. 8. The impact of the Strengthening of the Forestry Department component was below expectation. As a result of delays in awarding contracts and subsequent escalation in costs, the civil works envisaged under the component were not carried out per plan; in the districts, little of the planned construction or rehabilitation of houses and offices took place. At Headquarters, the mechanical workshop, training sawmill and new HQ office block were about 70% completed. However, in order to complete the outstanding civil works, the GOU has attached high priority to the completion of the FD headquarters and workshop. The management systems, including procurement, accounting, monitoring, evaluation, reporting and coordination systems set up at the FD proved generally inadequate. The exercise involving a thorough inventory-taking of natural forest and softwood plantations has on the other hand, been greatly successful. Overall, this component's accomplishments are judged to have been partial, with some shortcomings. 9. The achievement of the training component was substantial. This achievement was realized at an early stage of the project which maximized its contribution to FD institutional building. In particular, the training program achieved most of its objectives in terms of numbers of trainees, preparation of training material, awarding fellowships and study tours and conducting in-country training. Although the SAR did not place high priority on the forestry research sub-component, provision was made for a consolidation phase, some agro-forestry research and infrastructure for seed services. The overall achievement of the research sub-component was negligible. 10. The actual costs of the project were US$ 32.251 million, as compared to US$ 33.309 million in SAR. Actual costs, classified by components and financing agencies, are presented in Tables 8a and 8b, respectively. As regards the implementation timetable, the project's start up was delayed substantially, mainly due to the bureaucratic procedures of GOU and IDA. However, other planned dates were mostly met (Table 3). 11. The Bank's performance in identification and preparation of the project was largely satisfactory, although a number of shortcomings in the design of the project were observed, e.g., insufficient consideration given to the details of possible resettlement that may have been required when dealing with encroachers in the indigenous forest, (though, in fact very little such resettlement iv was actually required). Overall, the Bank's supervision and review missions were satisfactory. But inadequate management systems and complex GOU procedures were not conducive to smooth and prompt project implementation, particularly in the early stages when project management was not yet fully conversant with the Bank's procurement procedures. 12. Given the political, economic and social constraints that prevailed in the country, GOU's overall performance was partially satisfactory. Over the first four years of the project implementation phase, counterpart funding was insufficient. In later years of project implementation (1993-94), GOU took steps to improve banking procedures by allowing the project to use a commercial bank. In addition, in 1995/96 the FD has been authorized to retain a certain proportion ofits revenue. This satisfactory arrangement should contribute positively to project sustainability. Additionally, if the improvements in the timber tracking system can be maintained, and the system extended to other products such as charcoal and poles, or improved rental for forest land realized, then the FD, if permitted to retain more revenue, would be self-sustaining. A set of woody bioenergy studies indicate a revenue potential of US$ 6 to 7 million. An increasing focus on partnership with the private sector in the ownership and management of peri-urban plantations, farm forestry and softwood plantations (particularly, large-scale industrial softwood operations) should also contribute to the sustainability of project activities. Also, in view of the strengthening of the Bank's operations pipeline with regard to natural resources management/environmental conservation, via the recently approved Bwindi and Mgahinga National Parks Conservation (GEF supported) and the Uganda Environment Management Capacity Building Projects, as well as the proposed Protected Areas Management and Sustainable Use and the GEF Biodiversity Conservation Projects, it is envisaged that certain elements of the Forestry Project will be sustained. Among these elements are institutional strengthening of relevant public sector agencies, especially FD, and the development/ conservation of some critical forestry resources. However, for the sustainable development and conservation of forestry in Uganda, there is a need for the FD to proceed with and finalize the ongoing formulation of a National Forests Action Programme (NFAP) for the forest sub-sector, as an integral component of the National Environment Action Programme (NEAP). Within the NFAP strategy, complementary forestry development projects could be identified for external and national funding. 13. At completion, an overall economic rate of return (ERR) of 9% is estimated for the project (SAR: 15%). Project implementation was constrained by ambitious project design and multiplicity of financing agencies, combined with inadequate project management and implementation capability of the FD, the difficulties related to procurement and disbursements, and the exogenous political, economic constraints. Project impact was thus mixed and varied by component. However, the achievements of the project, particularly the qualitative project contributions in areas such as institutional strengthening (FD capacity building), increased involvement of the private sector (peri- urban and industrial plantations), introduction of measures to improve FD's sustainability (partial retention of revenues), and the advancement of environmental conservation / natural resources management objectives of the Ugandan Government, proved far-reaching and perceptible. Thus, the overall project performance is deemed satisfactory. Summary of Findings, Future Operations and Key Lessons Learned 14. The activities initiated under the project face the challenge of Government restructuring of concerned ministries and constrained public expenditure. Financial limitations could negatively affect GOU funding of future recurrent costs, which are needed in order to realize project benefits. To this end, the FD is envisaged to encourage greater partnership with the private sector in the ownership and management of peri-urban plantations, farm forestry and softwood plantations. In particular, future private investment in large-scale industrial softwood operations is under consideration. V 15. As regards the conservation and management of natural forests, there is a need for GOU to concentrate the limited available resources on its regulatory and technical support roles. In addition to the Bank initiatives described under para. 12 above, future operations under the envisaged extension to the EU funded component on Rehabilitation ofNatural Forest Management should greatly assist GOU in meeting this challenge. 16. The following key lessons emerged from the project's implementation experience: (i) an increasing reliance on cost-recovery mechanisms and private sector involvement, both during and beyond the project life, is a pre-requisite for project sustainability; (ii) project management should be thoroughly briefed on the use of Project Preparation Facility (PPF) funds and Bank procurement procedures in order to maximize the benefit from the Facility; (iii) the development and adoption of monitoring and evaluation systems should build on existing practices and take into account the local capacity to manage such systems; (iv) project appraisals should evaluate not only the expected benefits of project interventions, but also their possible negative impacts, especially on local communities. IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REP!ORT REPUBLIC OF UGANDA FORESTRY REHABILITATION PROJECT (CR. 1824-UG) PART I: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT A. STATEMENT/EVALUATION OF OBJECTIVES 1. The main objectives of the project were to: (i) increase the production of woodfuels and poles for the urban population through encouraging private wood farming; (ii) increase the production of wood products for the rural population and conserve soil fertility; (iii) manage and conserve Uganda's natural forests for sustained timber and charcoal production by the private sector, as well as improvements in revenue collection from logging, environmental protection and nature conservation; (iv) increase the productivity of the softwood plantations for sustained production of timber by the private sector, and encourage a shift in exploitation of timber from natural forests to softwood plantations; (v) provide institutional support to the Forestry Department (FD), and create the management and information base for long-term planning, development and conservation of Uganda's forest resources. 2. To achieve these objectives, the project included components for (i) peri-urban plantations and pilot wood farms (financed by Norwegian Agency for Development, NORAD); (ii) farm forestry (co-financed by Danish International Development Agency, DANIDA and Cooperative Assistance and Relief Everywhere, CARE); (iii) rehabilitation of natural forest management (financed by European Union, EU); (iv) rehabilitation of softwood plantations (financed by IDA); (v) strengthening of the FD (financed by IDA); and, (vi) training (financed by IDA and United Nations Development Programme, UNDP). The GOU contributed counterpart funding towards the financing of local costs. 3. In general, the project's objectives were in line with GOU's national development objectives and priorities. The project represented the first comprehensive Program for the rehabilitation of the forestry sub-sector after nearly 20 years of chronic deterioration. The project design reflected balanced objectives of forestry production, resource conservation and environmental protection. It also endeavored to involve the private sector and NGO's in forestry development. Various relevant and realistic risk elements were recognized in the SAR, and some of these were to be mitigated by the provision of appropriate TA. 4. Notwithstanding the above, the project's objectives were ambitious and demanding for the limited managerial capacity of the FD at the time the project was initiated. Moreover, the complex nature of the project design (six components, seven 2 partners in development, wide geographical area coverage) represented a further burden on the FD managerial capacity. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PROJECT OBJECTIVES 5. In view of shortfalls in various physical achievements (described below), the project's overall economic rate of return (ERR) at completion is estimated at 9%1. This rate, albeit much lower than the SAR estimate of 15%, is considered reasonable, particularly when viewed in the context of the qualitative project contributions in areas such as institutional strengthening (FD capacity building), the retention of revenues by FD, increased involvement of the private sector (peri-urban and industrial plantations), and the advancement of environmental conservation / natural resources management objectives of the Ugandan Government. 6. The achievements under various components were, nevertheless, mixed. Delivery of physical project inputs, such as civil works and vehicles, varied between the financing agencies. As shown in Table 5, operational performance of certain key activities was below the SAR targets. Consequently, production levels were generally depressed. Thus, the actual ERR's for the separate components were below the SAR estimates. The following is a summary of the project's achievements by component: Peri-urban Plantations and Pilot Wood Farms 7. The planting achievements under this component have been substantial when compared with SAR targets (FD 168% of SAR target; private sector 76%). In recent years the rate of planting by private farmers has, in some locations, surpassed that of the FD, justifying the early commitment by FD to spearhead afforestation of reserves using the private sector. Sustainability of private planting is confirmed by the minimal subsidies provided in some locations, and by the harvesting of private plantations as cash crops. 8. Notwithstanding the above achievements, the performance of the peri-urban component was not outstanding. This is attributable to a slower build-up of production than envisaged in the SAR, combined with a much higher development budget for civil works than anticipated in the SAR . In view of the substantive planting activity under the Peri-urban Plantations and Pilot Wood Farms component, its outcome is deemed satisfactory. Farm Forestry 9. Building on CARE's prior experience, early achievements under this component were encouraging, but unfortunately its activities were halted prematurely. Three agro- Provided that post-project benefits are realized through a continuing commitment by GOU to post- project costs. 3 forestry centers were, however, successfully established, and a total of 351 nurseries in 17 districts were handed over to FD by 1991. Some rural tree planting from that era remains in evidence. The majority of the nurseries have become semi-privatized small businesses, run by retrenched FD staff 10. The beneficial influence of farm trees on agricultural crop productivity was emphasized in the SAR. Although some agro-forestry tree species were distributed, the vast majority of seedlings produced under this component were eucalyptus, from which significant crop benefit could not be derived. 11. In part as a result of DANIDA's withdrawal in 1991, the component's objectives were partially fulfilled. Seedling production was 10% of the SAR target, and potential production benefits were correspondingly reduced. As a result of the early discontinuation of activities, the component was generally unsuccessful in meeting its stated objectives. Rehabilitation of Natural Forest Management 12. Operations under this component were affected by a number of constraints including encroachment in Forest Reserves, a suspension of EU funding during 1993/94, and outputs which were dissipated by the transfer of six major forest reserves to the jurisdiction of National Parks and Wildlife during 1992/93. 13. Nevertheless, the lengths of forest boundaries treated greatly exceeded the target figure of some 1,350 Kin; this redemarcation has contributed significantly to restoring the integrity of Forest Reserves. Enrichment planting within intact forest had, by the end of 1994, reached 80% of target, while plantings within encroached forest had reached 44%. These are satisfactory achievements, because experience has snown in many project areas that adequate natural regeneration (as is occurring in these forested areas), often removes the need for planting, and requires less follow-up and maintenance inputs. 14. The identification and demarcation of Nature Reserves and associated buffer zones was given priority, and 50% of all forest reserves were assigned to these categories. Considerable effort has gone into raising awareness of the environmental value of natural forests. This emphasis in operations, combined with improved boundary control, has helped mitigate forest resources degradation (via forest production and charcoal-making), both legal and illegal. None of the planned refining or charcoal operations were however, carried out under the component; and, since the training facility for hardwood sawmilling was not fully implemented under the IDA financed component, it is difficult to associate incremental production benefits with specific interventions. However, the civil works program under this component has been exemplary (177 out of the planned 215 buildings constructed or rehabilitated). 15. In addition to the above accomplishments, improved forest management measures, supported by the IDA component for Forest Department Rehabilitation, have led to a steady increase in recorded production from selective felling in natural forest 4 reserves. These incremental amounts, on average around 33,000 m3/year from 1990-94, are presumed to be attributed to benefits of sustainable management of the natural forest. In view of the improvements in management and conservation of forest resources, introduced under this component, and some resultant incremental production benefits, the performance of the component is judged to have been successful. Rehabilitation of Softwood Plantations 16. Given the over-mature age-structure of Uganda's industrial softwood plantations, the key target for the component was for clearfelling and replanting. Less than 20% of this target was achieved because the private sector did not have the processing capacity to respond fully to an expanding domestic market. In retrospect, the omission of an IDA project component in support of the private sawmilling sector is judged to have been a flaw in project design. Nonetheless, up to 20 small softwood sawmills have been imported by the private sector, following the early lead given by the project and supported by training under the project. Incremental production, which was partly boosted by the salvage felling of aphid damaged crops, averaged 17,700 m3/year between 1990-94. Moreover, other benefits were realized through an effective training program in softwood sawmilling assisted by the UNDP/FAO training component. Overall, this component succeeded in promoting the use of softwoods in the market as a partial substitute for hardwood from natural forests. 17. The crops in the softwood plantations were generally too old for thinning and pruning, and the relatively low achievements (pruning 26%, thinning 9%) will not have adversely affected the final crops. Considerable success has been achieved in new planting, (93% achieved). However, the areas involved are relatively small and distant from potential markets. The civil works program in the softwood plantations component was minimal (only 8 out of the planned 41 buildings were constructed or rehabilitated). No fire towers were constructed. 18. Sound planning, timely operations and labor productivity in the softwood plantations were adversely affected by delays arising from lack of familiarity with IDA procurement/disbursement procedures and Bank of Uganda (BOU) clearances. In view of its mixed performance, the component is judged to have been partially successful. Strengthening of the Forestry Department 19. The impact of the Forest Department rehabilitation component was below expectations. In the districts, little of the planned construction or rehabilitation of houses and offices took place. At Headquarters, the mechanical workshop, training sawmill and new HQ office block were about 70% completed. The lack of satisfactory performance with regard to civil works was largely due to early delays of up to two years in awarding contracts because of cumbersome procedures and subsequent price escalation of about 100%. Moreover, the transfer of FD headquarters from Entebbe to Nakawa increased substantially the size and cost of the new headquarters building. However, in order to 5 complete the outstanding civil works at Nakawa, the GOU has attached high priority to the completion of the FD headquarters and workshop. 20. The provision of vehicles and equipment under this component experienced problems arising from lack of familiarity with IDA procurement procedures, delays by BOU in the issue of letters of credit, and GOU tender approvals. As a result, the first batch of deliveries was delayed until three years after the project had started. 21. Technical assistance involved cooperation with short and long term experts and the commissioning of a number of studies (Table 7). However, the setting-up of management systems, including procurement, accounting, monitoring, evaluation, reporting and coordination, was unsatisfactory. Limited impact on program planning and execution, at strategic, tactical or operational levels, seems in evidence. This deficient transfer and absorption of skills, limited the effect of the project interventions on FD strengthening. 22. The exercise involving a thorough inventory taking of natural forest and softwood plantations has been greatly successful. However, the benefits from outputs have not yet been fully translated into the planning and management of forest resources. The FD capability to conduct further inventory has definitely been enhanced. Overall, this component's achievement is judged to have been partially successful. Training and Research 23. The achievements of the training sub-component were substantial, and were realized at an early stage of the project which maximized their contribution to FD institution building. In particular, the training program has achieved most of its objectives in terms of numbers of trainees, preparation of training material, awarding fellowships and study tours and conducting in-country training. Training conducted under this component, as well as under the EU component, was instrumental in introducing new concepts in community involvement, forest management and conservation. 24. Training, however, was constrained by the delayed rehabilitation of the facilities at Nyabyeya Forestry College, and to some extent, did not provide sufficient field experience. The completed rehabilitation of the college now provides the basis for effective training of forestry staff. The sawmill training (largely carried out under IDA funding) was effective in training operators for sawing of softwood, but did not include training for hardwood sawing due to lack of rehabilitated facilities. 25. Although the SAR did not place high priority on new forestry research, provision was made for a consolidation phase, some agro-forestry research and some infrastructure for seed services. Limited technical assistance and some vehicles were provided, but none of the envisaged civil works were carried out. The overall achievement of the research sub-component was negligible. 6 C. IMPLEMENTATION RECORD AND MAJOR FACTORS AFFECTING THE PROJECT Project Start-up 26. The project start up was slow with field activities only starting about one-and-half years after project commencement. The main reasons for the slow start up included: (i) the complex nature of the project design; (ii) limited managerial capacity within FD for implementation of such a complex project combined with; (iii) less than expected performance of the technical assistance inputs; (iv) delays arising from bureaucratic rules, and cumbersome procedures of IDA and GOU funding, especially since a Project Preparation Facility (PPF) was not effectively utilized; and, (v) inadequate and irregular flow of counterpart funding. Thus, delays were experienced in the recruitment of consultants, procurement of equipment and progress in civil works, all of which had an initial retarding effect on realization of project objectives; improvements in project implementation performance materialized only in the latter project years. Project Management 27. The SAR recognized the critical importance of national project management, supported by TA to FD. The project's management faced difficulties in carrying out its responsibilities. These difficulties included (i) lack of familiarity with disbursement and procurement procedures of IDA and BOU, issue of Letters of Credit, approvals from Central Tender Board and from Ministry of Housing; (ii) lack of an effective and operational monitoring and reporting system, as well as an inadequate system of financial control for the project; (iii) lack of comprehensive operational planning of activities by project management during implementation; (iv) insufficient priority given to the supervision of field activities by project management staff; and, (v) transfer of managerial skills by TA to the national team which was less effective than anticipated. 28. During the latter years of project implementation, project management was also faced with issues resulting from certain external factors; e.g., decentralization of forest administration; transfer of selected forest reserves to National Parks and Wildlife; and restructuring of the responsible Ministry. Supervision and Review Missions 29. The number (10) of the Bank's supervision missions mounted in response to different needs, particularly at earlier stages of project implementation, was within the average range. In addition, a few short-term World Bank staff visits to review progress and follow-up project activities were also carried out. These missions incorporated well- balanced specialized staff skills (Table 13). 30. There was continuity among missions in terms of follow-up on critical issues, recommendations and action plans. The quality of mission reporting was reasonably high and (i) provided accurate analysis of project progress and difficulties; (ii) recognized 7 important issues and constraints; and (iii) proposed pragmatic solutions. This quality was attributable in part to the constructive contributions of the project management team including other concerned GOU officers. 31. Although it was agreed during negotiations that a mid-term review mission should be fielded no later than March 31, 1990, the delayed project start-up precluded this mission. Instead, restructuring of the project was carried out in 1991 and no formal mid- term review was conducted. D. PROJECT SUSTAINABILITY 32. The SAR envisaged and the Project was based on a long-term life span for the future operations (36 years), particularly in view of the harvesting cycles involved in industrial plantation and natural forest components. An increasing focus on partnership with the private sector in the ownership and management of peri-urban plantations, farm forestry and softwood plantations (particularly, large-scale industrial softwood operations) have also contributed to the sustainability of project activities. Furthermore, although no retention by FD of project generated revenues was authorized by GOU during project implementation, in 1995/96, FD was authorized to retain a certain proportion of its revenue. This financial arrangement should contribute positively to project sustainability. Additionally, if the improvements in the timber tracking system can be maintained, and the system extended to other products such as charcoal and poles, or improved rental for forest land realized, then the FD, if permitted to retain more revenue, would be self-sustaining. A set of woody bioenergy studies indicate a revenue potential of US$ 6 to 7 million. Also, in view of the strengthening of the Bank's operations pipeline with regard to natural resources management/environmental conservation, via the recently approved Bwindi and Mgahinga National Parks Conservation (GEF supported) and the Uganda Environment Management Capacity Building Projects, as well as the proposed Protected Areas Management and Sustainable Use and the GEF Biodiversity Conservation Projects, it is envisaged that certain elements of the Forestry Project will be sustained. Among these elements are institutional strengthening of relevant public sector agencies, especially FD, and the development/ conservation of some critical forestry resources, through the formulation and implementation of a coherent strategic framework for managing Uganda's fragile natural resource base. 33. The following measures would also contribute towards reducing the risk of non- sustainability: (i) improved collection and retention by FD of a proportion of its revenues for the partial funding of recurrent costs; (ii) greater private sector involvement in the commercial development of the industrial softwood plantations and in afforestation at farm level; and, (iii) in the short term, enhanced external funding for both the private and public sectors to be used in the implementation of complementary projects. 34. In addition, for the sustainable development and conservation of forestry in Uganda, there is a need for the FD to proceed with and finalize the ongoing formulation 8 of a National Forests Action Programme (NFAP) for the forest sub-sector, as an integral component of the National Environment Action Programme (NE4P). Within the NFAP strategy, complementary forestry development projects could be identified for external and national funding. E. BANK PERFORMANCE 35. The Bank's performance in identification and preparation of the project was largely satisfactory and in line with GOU's national development objectives and priorities. However, there were a number of shortcomings in the design of the project. These included: (i) ambitious project objectives, given the limited capacity of FD; (ii) Ugandan participation in the identification, preparation and appraisal of the project was limited to counterpart collaboration during the Bank's visits to Uganda; (iii) cancellation at appraisal of the proposed credit facility to assist the sawmilling industry; (iv) insufficient consideration given to the details of possible resettlement that may have been required when dealing with encroachers in the indigenous forest, though, in fact very little such resettlement was actually required; (v) incorporating a relatively high level of GOU counterpart funding that later proved untenable; and, (vi) unreliable cost estimates (at appraisal) for civil works. 36. The Bank's supervision and review missions were satisfactory. The supervision missions worked closely with the national team and concerned GOU officials in addressing key issues affecting project performance and directing their efforts towards facilitating project implementation. Bank staff were also cognizant of the national political, economic and social setting and its constraints on project implementation. In particular, the Bank acceded to GOU request for increased IDA contribution to recurrent operating costs in 1993-94, which resulted in improved field work performance, particularly, in plantation development and inventory. This development, however, offset an element of sustainability in the project design, whereby IDA contributions to recurrent costs were to be progressively reduced. 37. In the early stages project management was not conversant with the Bank's procurement/disbursement procedures, compounded by those of the GOU. This was not conducive to smooth and prompt project implementation. 38. The procurement and disbursement issues and difficulties should have been addressed by the Bank at an earlier stage of implementation through training and capacity building. Eventually they were addressed and largely resolved in 1991, resulting in improved performance of the project. In this regard, there was a positive reaction from GOU, and a partial improvement in the management of accounts and finances, as negotiated with the Bank, also occurred. 9 F. BORROWER PERFORMANCE 39. Given the political, economic and social constraints that prevailed in the country, GOU's performance was generally satisfactory. Over the first four years of the project implementation phase, counterpart funding was insufficient. Although adequate counterpart funds were provided during the last two years (1993-94) of project implementation, the flow of these funds was irregular and uncertain. These delays and irregularities undermined effective planning, timeliness of operations and labor productivity. 40. The GOU, however, reacted satisfactorily to IDA's requests for improving cumbersome central banking procedures (especially for obtaining letters of credit) by allowing the project to bank at a commercial bank and improved certification procedures for civil works. In addition, during the last three years of the project, the Government included the project in the cohort of priority/core projects, thereby enhancing the likelihood of obtaining GOU funding. 41. The Borrower agreed to establish and maintain in operation a Project Coordination Committee (PCC) with responsibility for coordination among concerned Government ministries, as well as between international financial agencies and FD. Although PCC was established, it met rather infrequently to be fully effective. It also lacked continuity of key members owing to ministerial restructuring. The consequence of the unsatisfactory coordination led to project implementation problems, especially in relation to sequencing, certain overlapping of project activities and a loss of integration of project components. 42. The Borrower agreed to provide yearly and half-yearly reports to the Bank on the project's physical and financial progress. These reports received were often delayed and inadequate. The reports neither recognized management difficulties and problems (especially during the early years of implementation), nor provided appropriate solutions. This was partly due to lack of an effective monitoring and reporting system for project activities. G. ASSESSMENT OF OUTCOME 43. At completion, an overall economic rate of return (ERR) of 9% is estimated for the project (SAR: 15%). Project implementation was constrained by an ambitious project design and multiplicity of financing agencies, combined with inadequate project management and implementation capability of the FD, difficulties related to procurement and disbursements, and the exogenous political/economic constraints. Project impact was thus mixed, and varied by component. However, the achievements of the project, particularly the qualitative project contributions in areas such as institutional strengthening (FD capacity building), increased involvement of the private sector (peri- urban and industrial plantations), introduction of measures to improve FD's sustainability (partial retention of revenues), and the advancement of environmental conservation / 10 natural resources management objectives of the Ugandan Government were far-reaching and perceptible. In view of these achievements, the overall project performance is deemed satisfactory. 44. The project thus contributed to the improved knowledge about the national forestry resources; improved protection and conservation of the natural forest; FD staff capacity building; and increased involvement of the private sector in forest production. The revenue collection potential under the intervention was inhibited by the ban on charcoal production and pitsawing for most of the project period. Also, the required tools such as, marking hammers etc. (financed by EC) were procured following long delays. However, there has been a dramatic improvement in this regard in 1995/96. Furthermore, information bases are being established on biodiversity, pest management and silvicultural technique. Nevertheless, it is clear that further improvements are warranted. The FD still needs an effective planning, reporting, monitoring and evaluation system; completion of the civil works program; and effective management of production forests based on the findings of inventories carried out under the project are also needed. H. FUTURE OPERATION 45. The activities initiated under the project face the challenge of Government restructuring of concerned ministries and constrained public expenditures. Financial limitations could negatively affect GOU funding of future recurrent costs, which are needed in order to realize project benefits. To this end, the FD is envisaged to encourage greater partnership with the private sector in the ownership and management of peri- urban plantations, farm forestry and softwood plantations. In particular, future private investment in large-scale industrial softwood operations is under consideration. 46. Regarding the conservation and management of natural forests, there is a need for GOU to concentrate the limited available resources on its regulatory and technical support roles. In addition to the Bank initiatives described under para. 34 above, future operations under the envisaged extension to the EU funded component on Rehabilitation of Natural Forest Management should greatly assist GOU in meeting this challenge. 47. In order to complete the outstanding civil works at Nakawa, the GOU has attached high priority to the completion of the FD headquarters and workshop. Future training activities will build upon improved facilities at Nyabyeya Forestry College and at Nakawa. Following the direction set by the Combined Forestry Training Programme (partly funded by NORAD), it is envisaged that the focus could shift more to the needs of the private sector. In addition, further applied research is needed, particularly into forest conservation functions, the silvicultural challenges of productive management of natural forests, and the role of Uganda's forests in serving the needs of the rural population. 11 I. LESSONS LEARNED 48. The following key lessons emerged from the project's implementation experience: (a) Full and active Borrower/stakeholder participation in all phases of the project cycle would lead to a more realistic and sound project design and implementation arrangement, and ensure national ownership of the project. (b) An increasing reliance on cost-recovery mechanisms and private sector involvement, both during and beyond the project life, is a pre-requisite for project sustainability. (c) If a Project Preparation Facility (PPF) is included in the project design, project management should be thoroughly briefed on the use of PPF and Bank procurement/disbursement procedures in order to maximize benefit from the Facility. (d) The development and adoption of monitoring and evaluation systems should build on existing practices and take into account the local capacity to implement/manage such systems. (e) For projects that include institution building components, there is a need to develop qualitative indicators to assess achievements of objectives and to coordinate them with quantitative project evaluation indicators. (f) Project appraisal should evaluate not only the expected benefits of project interventions, but also their possible negative impacts, especially on local communities, (e.g. to deal adequately with issues related to forest encroachers and prohibition of illegal pitsawing). (g) For effective management of complex projects (e.g., several components, donors, wide geographical coverage) the establishment, maintenance and operation of a national coordination mechanism is essential to achieve appropriate sequencing of activities, and ensure integration of project components. 12 PART II: STATISTICAL ANNEXES Table 1: Summary of Assessments A. Achievement of objectives Substantial PaEial Negligible Not Applicable (0) (0) (0) (0) Macro policies [i O O] F0] Sector policies E M El] Financial objectives El E] Ol E] Institutional development E 0 F0 0 Physical objectives El E9 Fl D Poverty reduction El E El El Gender issues El EEl F E] Other social objectives El El El Environmental objectives Public sector management El EE Private sector development E E E Other (specify) 13 Lknly Unlikely Uncertain B. Prject sana(9) (0) (0) C. B pformance satisbfa Satisfacoy Deficient (0) (0) (0) Identification [: ][jj j Preparation assistance j] Appraisal Supervision [l 19 [] D. Borrower performance satisfactory Satisfactory Deficient (0) (a) (0) Preparation [l E O Implementation I [ ] [ Covenant compliance [ ][ E Operation (if applicable) [] iii]FW Ilishlx Highly E. Asssmet m satisfacry Satifacy Unsatisfactory unsatisfactoly (O) (0) (0) (a) E] EW F- 14 Table 2: Related Bank Loans/Credits Page 1 of 2 Loan/Credit Title Purpose Year of Status Approval (. Preceding Operations 1 First Reconstruction The agricultural component 1980 Completed in was aimed at sectoral 1985 rehabilitation through provision of imported inputs (US$ 19 million of a total and spares. credit of US$95 million, was earmarked for agriculture) 2. Second Reconstruction The agricultural component 1982 Completed in was aimed at sectoral 1990 rehabilitation through provision of imported inputs (US$17 million of a total and spares. credit of US$70 million, was earmarked for agriculture) 3. Agricultural Development Increase food production and 1985 Closed Project (Cr. 1539-UG) family income in project area through provision of inputs; strengthening of extension (US$10 million) services; support for research and surveys. 4. Sugar Rehabilitation Restore efficient agricultural 1988 Closed (Cr. 1893-UG) and processing operations at the Kakira Sugar Works. (US$24.9 million) 5. Agricultural Sector Facilitate financial 1990 On-going Adjustment Credit stabilization; promote (Cr. 2190-UG) agricultural growth and diversification. (US$100 million) 15 Page 2 of 2 Loan/Credit Title Purpose Year of Status Approval . Preceding Operations 5. Livestock Services Reverse the decline in 1990 On-going (Cr. 2176-UG) livestock numbers by dealing with the alarming animal epidemic disease situation; (US$21 million) bring about improvements in the Ministry of Animal Industry and Fisheries. I Following Operations 1. Bwindi Impenetrable Support biodiversity 1995 On-going National Park (BINP) and conservation in the BINP and Mgahinga Gorilla National MGNP. Park (MGNP) Conservation Project (GEF) 2. Environmental Management National capacity building in 1995 effective Capacity Building Project environmental management February '96 (EMCBP) and natural resource conservation. 3. Protected Areas Assist in conserving natural Proposed Management and areas and biological and Sustainable Use Project cultural resources. (PAMSU) 4. Biodiversity Strategy and Improved participatory Proposed Conservation in Non- management, conservation and Protected Areas (GEF & sustainable use of biodiversity GOU financed) outside protected areas. 5 Agricultural Sector Strengthen policy analysis, Proposed Management Project formulation and (ASMP) implementation capacity of sectoral institutions with a view to improved services delivery. 16 Table 3: Project Timetable Steps in Project Cycle Date planned Date actual/latest Estimate Identification A/ Dec. 1984 Dec. 1984 Preparation hi July 1985 April-June 1985 Appraisal Q Oct. 85 to Jan. 86 June 25 to July 16, 1986 Negotiations Jan. 1987 12-18 May, 1987 Board presentation July 1987 June 17, 1987 Signing July, 1987 July 6, 1987 Effectiveness Oct. 4, 1987 Jan. 11, 1988 Mid-term review March 31, 1990 May 31, 1990-d Project completion June 30, 1994 Dec. 31, 1994 Credit closing Dec. 31, 1994 Dec. 31, 1994 A/ Carried out by EAPNA/IDA. b/ Prepared by the Bank's Energy Sector Management Assessment Programme (ESMAP) with Canadian financial assistance. Q/ The appraisal mission was mounted in June 1986 and included representatives and consultants from IDA and EU. d/ Project restructuring mission, not a formal mid-term review. 17 Table 4: Loan/Credit Disbursements: Cumulative Estimated and Actual (US$ thousands) FY87/88 FY88/89 F89/90 F90/91 F91/92 F92/93 F93/94 F94/95 ppraisal estimate 400 2,100 4,400 7,100 9,600 11,600 12,700 13,000 ctual 1,560 2,448 4,073 7,020 9,140 10,831 13,097 13,775 ctual as% of 390 117 93 99 95 93 103 106 stimate ate of final May 25, 1995 lisbursement FY = From July I to June 30. 18 Table 5: Key Indicators for Project Implementation Page 1 of 3 Key implemerttation Indicators Estimated Revised Actual defined in SAR for years 1988-94 (Jan 1994) PER-URBAN PLANTATIONS AND PILOT WOOD FARMS OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES Planting areas (hectares) 1,900 2,269 - Forest Department 900 1,513 - Private Farmers 1,000 756 Seedling P odn.('000) 5,700 7,563 Roads 105 0 -riabilitation (km) 50 - -new construction (km) 55 INCREMENTAL PRODUCTION Firewood ('000 stacked cum.) 286 23 - Forest Department 144 18 - Private Farmers 142 5 Poles ('000) 2,653 150 - Forest Department 1,736 117 - Private Farmers 917 331 FARM FORESTRY OPERTIONAL ACTIVITIES Districts involved 26 24 Nurseries established 1,030 351 Planting areas (hectare equivalent) 379,440 2,970 Seedling Prodn.('000) 105,400 10,714 Agrofores Demo.Centres 3 3 INCREMENTAL PRODUCTION Firewood ('000 stacked cum.) 825 73 Poles ('000) 5,306 470 REHABILTATION OF NATURAL FOREST MANAGEMENT OPERATIONAL ACTVITIES Planting areas (hectares) 26,000 14,538 - Enroachment planting 17,300 7,626 - Enrichment planting 8,700 6,912 Demarcation - natural high forest (km) 1,350 4,547 - savannah woodland ('000 ha.) 632 2,781 19 Page 2 of 3 Key implemerttation Indicators Estimated Revised Actual defined in SAR for years 1988-94 (Jan 1994) PER-URBAN PLANTATIONS AND PILOT WOOD FARMS Seedling Prodn.('000) 4,245 6,074 -forest planting 3,810 - -boundary planting 435 - Refining/Thinning (ha.) 14,250 0 Demarcation of Nature Reserves and Buffer Zones (% of Reserves by area) 50% 50% - Refining/Tninning 193 0 - Selective felling 0 166 - Improved Utilisation 80 0 OPERATIONAL ACIIVITIES Planting areas (hectares) 2,750 1,053 - replanting 2,000 550 363 - new planting 750 690 Pruning (hectares) 2,060 535 -1st (2m) 310 178 -2nd (Sm) 1,750 357 Thinning (hectares) 9,800 1,000 848 - I St 4,400 - - 2nd 2,700 - 3rd 2,700 - Clearfeiling (hectares) 2,000 379 Selective salvage felling (hectares) 0 526 Roads 240 200 - rehabilitation (km) 210 200 - new construction (km) 30 0 NCREMENTAL PRODUCTION Charcoal production ('000 tonnes) 27 0 Harvesting ('000 cum) 300 86 - Thinning 204 0 - Clearfelling 0 52 - Salvage felling 0 26 - Imoroved Utilisation 94 8 - improved Protection 2 0 20 Page 3 of 3 Training Component Estimated Actual m/m No. of partic. M/M No. of practic. Study Tours 64 59 35 Fellowships 27 29 18 Sub-total 91 88 53 0 0 Makerere University Farm Forestry (FO Takeover) 104 Nyabyeya Forestry College Teacher Training 6 6 0 0 Forester/Forest Rangers (FF) 208 104 30.4 66 DFO/FO (Professional Management) 50 20 46.8 256 Foresters (Refresher Courses) 200 20 115.6 224 Forest Rangers (Refresher Courses) 300 30 0.0 0 Forest Guards (Refresher Courses) 150 30 0.0 0 Orientation Courses & Workshop 125 10 0.0 0 Enrichment Planting Technique 40 100 0.0 0 Sub-total 1,079 192.8 546 Agroforestry Res. & Demon. Centres Farmer Training (FF) 600 160 70.1 525 GkAND TOTAL 1,842 532 350.2 1,124 21 Table 6: Key Indicators for Project Operation I. Key Operating Indicators in SAR/President's Report Estimated Actual N.A. Table 7: Studies Included in Project Study Purpose as defined at Appraisal/ Status Impact of Study redefined 1. Forest Inventory of Softwood Establish stocking rates, sustainable Completed Results not yet applied in Plantations timber yields, and working plans. forest management 2. Forest Inventory of Natural Establish stocking rates, sustainable Completed Results applied in forest Forest Reserves timber yields, and working plans. management in Mabira and Budongo 3. Inventory of Milling and Assess the state of Uganda's Completed Limited; findings not used. Logging Equipment sawmilling and forest harvesting industry 4. Market Potential for Ugandan Market analysis Completed Positive impact: improved Timber Products: Softwoods awareness of softwood timber in local markets 5. Market Potential for Ugandan Market analysis Completed Limited impact Timber Products: Hardwoods 6. Charcol Study Charcol bioenergy study Completed Results being applied 6. Study on Encroachment No terms of reference defined Not completed 22 Table 8A: Project Costs Appraisal Estimate Actual/Latest (USS M) Estimate Total Item Local Foreign Total US$ M Costs Costs 1. Peri-urban Plantations and Pilot Wood 0.184 0.588 0.772 2.525 Farms Sub-total 0.184 0.588 0.772 2.525 2. Farm Forestry UFD take-over operation 1.347 2.762 4.109 1.208 NGO activities 0.565 2.093 2.658 1.173 Agro-forestry demonstration centers 0.010 0.026 0.036 0.029 Sub-total 1.922 4.881 6.803 2.410 3. Rehabilitation of Natural Forest 1.379 4.151 5.530 10.198 Management Sub-total 1.379 4.151 5.530 10.198 4. Rehabilitation of Softwood Plantations 0.442 1.418 1.860 2.413 Sub-total 0.442 1.418 1.860 2.413 5. Strengthening of the Forestry Department Logistic support 0.899 4.144 5.043 8.342 Planning, management, research 0.289 2.239 2.527 4.718 Training - - - 0.058 Sub-total 1.188 6.383 7.571 13.118 6. Training 0.588 1.515 2.103 1.587 Sub-total 0.588 1.515 2.103 1.587 Total Base Line Costs 5.703 18.935 24.639 32.251 Physical and Price Contingencies 5.934 2.737 8.670 - TOTAL COSTS 11.637 21.672 33.309 32.251 23 Table 8B: Project Financing Appraisal Estimate Actual/Latest Source (SAR Estimates) Estimate .................... US$ M .................... IBRD/IDA 13.00 13.78 EU grant 7.00 10.20 DANIDA grant 7.50 2.26 UNDP grant 2.20 A/ 1.59 CARE grant 0.20.0/ 0.15 NORAD grant - 2.53 GOU 3.40 1.76 axes & duties 0.40 - OTAL PROJECT COST 33.30 32.25 I/ DCA estimates were: UNDP, US$1.4 million; CARE US$0.18 million. ТеЫе 9: Economk Costв епд BsnsHts Suпnwy 1WвlоПиаh){в) 19вв-я5 t988 1� 1990 19в1 1ВВг i9'sзi9э4 rse5 re9б 1997 199в--1sе9 2ооо гаоl Рао2 гаоЭ 2оо4 zaos 2ооь 2оо7 1- е 1 2 � 4 s в 7 е 9 �о 11 1г 13 1� 15 1ь 1� 1е 1ч 2о РвгЕ-lfЬвп Рlвпtаtlопа - - - - -- -- - -- - 1ПаМпепдl BanafEl 568 59 14Э 6В 115 1в3 247 ЭО/ 365 420 471 521 SfiB 612 Ьц 695 7,11 7Ь0 DYмcosb (1,в1е (ra► (198) (171) (зrб) (ьзs) (з92) Fpcoscsrwe (1.3so (2s) 1ва) рв► (2в1) (гsз) (33s) (2Эб) р3) Ров1- tcoe6 Э9¢ з92 465) 5465) -��--� (465)�Б� (4sS) -- (4s5) - 14ь5� �4ь5) (4м5) (4ь5 ММ Bвneflb 299Э 2 18Q 274 Э7Э 125 910 513 282 21В 157 100L (45) 7 5б 10.7 148 19U 270 26В 70S Fвгт fотвд� ----- -- -- --- - -- - - --- lrvemerfalBeneflla 9вб 40 96 148 19В 246 258 270 256 24J 2Э1 220 20ч 1чВ tыы 17ч t70 1ы +5,1 lKedcoah (1,116 (2) (90), (23B) (7`�) (б2) г FDcosteFere (В51 (1б) (55� (48) (164) (159) (214) (149) (46) Post- cosb бе вВ ье ье _-�-_ s( е) (ьв) (ьВ) � _(sы)_ (sы) (se) (ь0) (ьы) at але ts 1,079 1 145 246 В23 3 16 97 1Ч 202 1Вв 175 16J 152 141 1Э0 120 111 10'11 9з В5 Мвйrвl Fотввl Мвпвретмt - - - - - - - - - - lгоemenmllЭeneflts 9,5о4 200 в20 1.1Э7 1,797 2,В75 2,875 2,е75 2,е75 2,е75 ?,е75 2,е75 2.е75 2,BlS г,в75 т.ы75 z,ы75 г,в75 2tl7S [>'ьеасоет (8.50е (вв) (дв5) (1.в1s) (1,z74) (2.1rr► (1,2sz) 11,s4e) FDco5[shere (6,316 (117) (111) (Э56) (1,220) (1,182) (1,587) (1,102) (340) N Роц- соаls 1.9вв (1.sыв (1,sea) (1,9вв 11.9в�е �ев) (1.чав) (1.чеы) (1.чеы) (+.чыв) (1.чвы1 (1 чды � st апе ts s,з19 1 n 477 ьz1 z,z16 1,з19 1,9в7 s1o е87 ев7 ее7 8а7 -ев7 е(17 ве7 --вВ7 88�_ вв� в6)� вв7 вв7 Sothrood PYnrtlans -- - - -- lпоетегУвl E�eneflts 2,в77 В9 ЭЭО 457 55В 71В 496 496 49б 496 496 49б 49б 4ч6 5u,f 5tю S06 5зг 5ч5 Dredcosm (2.44s (2) (16) (2>1 (921 (ддв) (5в51 (9ео) 12se1 Fpcos►shere (1,е15 (34) (11е) (1ог) (з5о) (34о) (дsв) (317) (se) Post- cosR (395) (Э95) (з95) (395) (395) �(JS�___ з( 95) _ 31 ч5) _i3�_ �ч5� (JVS� (Эч5 ИМ Вепвflb 1.5в2 Э 134 4 113 Э29 183 548 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 10В tos 1t1 1з7 200 А11 Compmвnb --- - - цwетепьlЕ)enefb 1д7Эв зг9 1,104 1,ees z,sz2 Э,9в4 з,erz Э,ве7 3,s34 3,97s д,ог1 4,Оьz 4,10о 4,1Э7 л.17s 4.z1з 4.z4ь дзnг 4.лч., DYedcoem (1д91е (4) (275) (928) (2.ез3) (2,097) (Э.доо) (zs34) (1.е4ы FDcostst,.re (10,Эзг (191) (ы з) (5в2) (1.9ss) (1.s34) (2,s97) (1.еоз) (s56) Рое1- cosb 1в0 (4в0) (2.st6) (2.stfi) (г.91б) (2.sfь) (2.9t61 (2.ч1ь) �+ь)�1б) (г.s1ь) (г.ч+ы (z,v+r�) (2ч1ь Ив1 Ввмпb 1 97Э 19Б 94(1 1 1в1 Э 524 2 U7 Э Э75 45Э 850 971 1 01В 1 О6Э 1 106 1 146 1 1В4 1 221 1,263 1.297 1,Э30 1.ЭВ6 1.417 ECONOMIC RATE 1CR SAR (а) Cas1s апд beneПLS tвve Ьееп eslYnated ир 1о уеаl 2023 (see ар(�ы1д+х Е1, OF FIETUFiNS ER 19В5 1987 оЫа 1114) bu1 , fот pгesenotlon pupose; 1he seles а+е t и+гаtасllп O+is PeП-UrbenPlent. 5% 7% БЫеаlуеаг 20о7. Ferrn ForsBtry 6% 20% (Ь) Cos1s of Тгаlпlпу апд 5ten(�hening Faest ()�arlmenlleve Ьее1 Nehird Foreal Mngml. 10% 45% аllосаlед 1о the 1Ье11оиг со onenls Softwood Plentations 1076 51% - -�--- - --- ;.�;,, „ .а�.'г�га; Strenghen FO (Ь) n ;`�` : Тгвгlл Ь ��.` :�'' �' '�} • 1�1сио lлнч : ,.: ... «.: lV1 Сот ananb 9% 15% ' •••....... Table 10. Status of Legal Covenants Page 1 of 3 Present Present Original Revised Agreement Section Covenant Status Fulfillment Fulfillment Description of Covenant Comments Type Date Date DCA 2.02 & 2 C Continuous The Borrower shall maintain a Special The operation of the Special Account was Sch. 5 ccount in dollars. Deposits into and atisfactory particularly following the transfer of payments out of the Special Account shall be he account into a commercial bank. However, in accordance with the provisions of ;ome cash flow problems were experienced as a Schedule 5 to DCA Agreement. -esult of overly long waits for goods to clear I Cs. DCA .01 (a) 4 CD Continuous Fhe Borrower shall provide, promptly as e flow of GOU counterpart fimds were and (c) ieeded, the funds required for the Project. [eelayed, but improved greatly during later years Fhe Borrower shall, at the beginning of each 93/94) enabling arrears to be paid and improvee juarter, deposit into such (Project) account Jeld activities. There was, however, some e amount (in UShs) estimated to be 'evenness in the monthly releases. equired by FD to cover its working capital -equirement for such quarter, which are not t Ln x covered by withdrawals from the Credit kccount. DCA 3.03 & 5 CP Continuous rhe Borrower shall establish and maintain in PCC was established. But, meetings were held Sch.4, 3peration a Project Coordination Committee infrequently to be effective (about 3 times Item I Q to meet at least twice a year. ver projecfs life span). v( DCA 3.04 (a) 13 C 12.31.87 e Boffower shall adopt a policy on forest ew policy on FRM was formulated and was c e, 4 source management (FRM) acceptable to ceptable to IDA. A. i e [e cc DCA 3.04 (b) 14 C 06.30.88 e Borrower shall ensure that said policy o new legislations enacted subsequent to new ve s) consistent with the national laws. licy formulation. iti oil DCA 3.05 (a) 2 C 06.30.88 itial adjustment of royalties to specified one. evels. DCA 3.05 (b) 2 CP 2.31.88 & eriodical (semi-annual) increases in [e Royalties have been reviewed and increased oyl emi- alties to specified target levels. nodically but at longer intervals than semi- ly ually. ereafter 3.05 (c) P J_ _ re,, u c i- rA . view and adjustment of monthly charcoal ne but not semi-annually. ually cense fees to minimum target level. Page 2 of 3 Present resent Original Revised Agreement Section Covenant tatus Fulfillment Fulfillment Description of Covenant Comments Type Date Date DCA and .06 (a) 10 D April 1 each eparation and submission to IDA for lays in submission of AWPs and budgets were SAR (b) ear eview/comments of Annual Work Programm xperienced in earlier years. But reporting improved ara. inc. budget details) for following FY ubstantially over later years. .08 ommencing July 1. DCA .07 5 CP .30.88 Forest harvesting licenses to include provision icenses were revised. However, many harvesters or equipment in conformity with sound forest perated with deficient equipment and under poor management practices. perational management. DCA and .08 9 CP 3.31.90 oject Performance assessment (mid-term estructuring of project was carried out in 1991, but SAR .12 review) by the Borrower o formal MTR was conducted DCA .09 5 C Continuous Execution of Project with due regard to To the extent that the project was implemented, there :cological/environmental factors consistent was compliance. with GOU's forest resource management policy. DCA .01 (a) 1 CP Continuous Maintenance of adequate records and accounts omputerized accounting system were set in place of operations, resources and expenditures luring later years but were not adequate. DCA 4.01 (b) 1 CP/CD 12.31 each Furnish to IDA not later than 6 months after A general delay was experienced in submitting & (c) year he end of each FY certified copy of audited iudited accounts. At the time, the ICR was prepared ccounts, inc. (i) those for the Special Accoun Sept. 95), audited accounts for 93/94 and 94/95 wer d the Project Account and (ii) separate till outstanding. uditors' opinion on SOE with respect to withdrawals from the Credit Account. DCA .01 (c) 12 C Reorganization of FD and submission of a Done. d staffing plan for FD to IDA. Sch.4 -tem B Page 3 of 3 Present Present Original Revised Agreement Section Covenant Status Fulfillment Fulfillmen Description of Covenant Comments Type Date Date OCA Sch. 4, 5 C The expert, acting as the Project Coordinator, New TA in position Sep. '92, and deemed tem C, 2 hall have the same powers as those vested in the satisfactory. This follows expiration of previous Dpty CFOs and shall be responsible for Project consultant's contract. planning and management. AR Para. 9D End Sept. preparation of semi-annual Progress Reports by Progress reports received but not on a regular semi- 4.11 each year FD. annual basis. AR Para. 12.31.94 eparation of Project Completion Report by FD. CR Draft prepared by FD. 4.11 Covenant Types Present Status 1 Accounts/audit 8 Indigenous people C = Covenant complied with 2 Financial performance/operating revenue from beneficiaries 9 Monitoring, review and reporting CD = Complied with delay 3 Flow and utilization of project funds 10 Implementation CP = Complied with partially 4 Counterpart funds II Sectoral or cross-sectoral budgetary or other resource allocation NC = Not complied with 5 Management aspects of the project or of its executing agency 12 Sector or cross-sectoral regulatory/institutional action 6 Environmental covenants 13 Sector policy conditionality: administrative change 7 Involuntary resettlement 14 Sector policy conditionality: regulatory change 15 Other 28 Table 11: Compliance with Operational Manual Statements Statement number and title Describe and comment on lack of compliance No deviation from applicable operational Manual Statements Table 12: Bank Resources: Staff Inputs Planned Revised Actual Stage of Project Cycle Weeks US$ Weeks US$ Weeks '000 US$ Through appraisal 31.5 46.8 Appraisal-Board 75.1 135.1 Board-Effectiveness 15.0 28.9 Supervision 132.7 279.5 Completion TOTAL 1 254.3 490.3 29 Table 13: Bank Resources: Missions Specialized Stage of Project Month/ Number Days in Staff Skills Types of Cycle Year of Field represented A/ Performance Rating Problem Persons Impleme- Develop- ntation ment Status hi Objectives Through appraisal - - - Appraisal through 7/86 F, E, D - - Board approval Supervision 1/ 6/88 4 36 F S S M 2 11/88 3 45 F, PS S S M 3 Z 3/89 2 9 F, PS - - CW, M, S 4 7/89 3 30 F, PS, FF U U M, F, T, S 5 2/90 3 36 F, PS, FF U U M, F, P, TA 5 f 5/90 3 30 F, FA, FF, OA - - M, TA, OS 7 12/90 1 15 E f/ f/ f/ 8 7/91 4 32 F, E, PS, FA U U M, F, A 9 11/91 3 27 F, PS, FA U U F, P, ME, CW, IN 10 12/92 1 7 F U S M, CW, F 11 3/93 1 11 F U U F, ME, CW, A 12 1/94 1 10 F S S M, F, ME, CW ompletion 9/95 2 32 E, F - - - E = Economist; F = Forester; D = Disbursements; PS = Procurement Specialist; FF = Farm and Extension Forestry Specialist; FA = Financial Analyst; OA= Operations Advisor. b/ HS = Highly Satisfactory; S = Satisfactory; U = Unsatisfactory. S = Staff recruitment; CW = Civil Works; F = Financial; OS = Office Space; T = Transport; M = Management; TA = Technical Assistance; P = Procurement delays; ME = Monitoring, reporting and Evaluation System; A = Aphid infestation; IN= Slow Forestry Inventory. 4/ IDA/DANIDA review mission. 4 Review missions. L Completed form 590 not available. REPUBLIC OF UGANDA FORESTRY REHABILITATION PROJECT APPENDIX A AIDE-MEMOIRE UGANDA Forestry Rehabilitation Project (Cr. 1824-UG) Aide-M6moire A. INTRODUCTION 1. A mission from FAO/World Bank Cooperative Programme visited Uganda from 4 to 20 September, 1995 to prepare an Implementation Completion Report (ICR) for the Forestry Rehabilitation Project. The mission worked closely with the Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) which has assumed responsibility for the Forestry Department (FD). The mission held meetings with the Permanent Secretary of MNR, the Director of Environment and the Commissioner for Forestry. Meetings were also held with representatives of the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, World Bank, EU, UNDP, FAO and DANIDA. Field visits were made to project locations in the west, south west and east of Uganda, as well as in Kampala. 2. The mission is grateful to the officials at MNR, officers of the Forest Department, and Project staff for their assistance in gathering the necessary information and organising successful field visits. Preliminary impressions and findings of the mission are presented below and are subject to modification following detailed analysis. B. BACKGROUND Funding 3. The Forestry Rehabilitation Project was prepared in June 1985, appraised in July 1986, and presented to the Board on 17 June 1987. Subsequently, an IDA credit consisting of SDR 10 million (US$ 13.775 million) was signed on 6 July 1987 and became effective on 11 January 1988. The credit to be disbursed over 8 years covered about 40% of the total project costs. According to the project Development Credit Agreement (DCA), the remainder was to be financed by grants to be obtained by the Borrower from: the European Development Fund (EDF) for US$ 7 million; DANIDA for US$ 7.5 million; CARE for US$ 180,000; and UNDP for US$ 1.4 million. According to the Staff Appraisal Report (SAR), the Government of Uganda would contribute the local currency equivalent of US$ 3.4 million. In 1988, NORAD joined the donors for the project. The actual disbursements for project implementation were: IDA, US$ 13.775 million; EU, ECU 8.200 million; NORAD, NKr 16.906 million; DANIDA, US$ 2.261 million; CARE, US$ 180,000; UNDP, US$ 1.587 million; and GOU, US$ 1.756 million. 2 Objectives 4. The main objectives of the project included: (i) increasing the production of woodfuels and poles for the urban population; (ii) increasing the production of wood products for the rural population and conserving soil fertility; (iii) managing and conserving Uganda's natural forests for sustained timber and charcoal production by the private sector, for revenue collection from logging, environmental protection and nature conservation; (iv) increasing the productivity of the softwood plantations for sustained production of timber by the private sector, and encouraging a shift in exploitation for timber from natural forests to softwood plantations; (v) providing institutional support to the FD for achievement of the above objectives, and creating the management and information base for long-term planning, development and conservation of Uganda's forest resources. Components 5. The project included components for: (i) peri-urban plantations and pilot wood farms (financed by NORAD); (ii) farm forestry (co-financed by DANIDA and CARE); (iii) rehabilitation of natural forest management (financed by EU); (iv) rehabilitation of softwood plantations (IDA funded); (v) strengthening of the FD (financed by IDA); and, (vi) training (financed by IDA and UNDP). The GOU contributed counterpart funding towards the financing of local costs. C. IMPLEMENTATION EXPERIENCE AND RESULTS Project Start Up 6. The project start up was slow such that field activities only started about one and half years after project commencement. The main reasons for the slow start up included: (i) the complex nature of the project design (six components, seven external partners in development and wide geographical area coverage); (ii) limited managerial capacity within FD for implementation of such a complex project; (iii) less than expected performance of the technical assistance inputs and minimal transfer of managerial skills to FD; (iv) delays arising from bureaucratic rules, regulations and procedures of IDA and GOU funding, especially since a Project Preparation Facility (PPF) was not effectively utilized; these delays were experienced in the recruitment of consultants, procurement of equipment and progress in civil works; and, (v) inadequate and irregular flow of counterpart funding. 3 Achievements by Component (i) Peri-urban plantations and pilot wood farms 7. The SAR objectives for this NORAD financed component pursued a twin track approach to afforestation with eucalyptus species on government Forest Reserves near to six selected urban locations; one by the Forestry Department and the other by small farmers in the private sector. 8. This component has been implemented under a low budget, with effective technical assistance, and has been under national leadership since 1991. Civil works (nursery, water supply, office, store, housing for forester and labour) at all six sites have been virtually completed. 9. Overall, the planting achievements under this component have been highly successful (FD 168%; private sector 76%). The mission noted that in recent years the rate of planting by private farmers had, in some locations, surpassed that of the FD, justifying the early commitment by FD to spearhead afforestation of reserves. Sustainability of private planting is confirmed by the minimal subsidies provided in some locations, and by the harvesting of private plantations as cash crops. 10. The mission was particularly impressed by management control of operations, the high degree of motivation of field staff and their grasp of operational costs. Further improvements could be obtained through applied research for effective termite control and enhancing silvicultural practice. (ii) Farm Forestry 11. The main SAR objective of this DANIDA/CARE financed component was to enable CARE to spearhead the establishment of nurseries and farmer planting, followed by a handover to FD of viable operations in 26 of the 39 administrative districts of Uganda. A second objective was to establish three Agroforestry Research and Demonstration Centres. 12. The implementation of this component, being co-financed with IDA, was highly dependent on IDA and GOU procedures. The shortcomings in project management, including procurement delays, tardy logistical support at district level and a lack of an acceptable system of financial accounting and control, contributed towards a high level decision by DANIDA to withdraw its support from the Forest Rehabilitation Project entirely in 1991. Subsequently, the FD nursery operations gradually ran down through lack of recurrent funding. Sustainability by FD was therefore not ensured. 13. Building on CARE's experience, early achievements under this component were encouraging, but unfortunately it was closed prematurely. The three agroforestry centres were successfully established, and a total of 351 multi-.species nurseries in 17 districts were handed over to FD by 1991. According to observations of the mission, some 4 evidence of rural tree planting from that era remains in evidence. It is noteworthy that the majority of the nurseries have become semi-privatised small businesses, run by retrenched FD staff. (iii) Rehabilitation of Natural Forest Management 14. The SAR set dual objectives for this EU financed component of the Project, namely natural forest management (including restoration of boundaries, planting and managed exploitation by the private sector) and natural forest conservation (demarcating nature reserves and buffer zones). To this end, two sources of incremental benefits were identified: refining and charcoal operations as part of improved management of logging operations and improved wood utilisation following training. 15. Operations under this component were affected by a number of constraints including encroachment in Forest Reserves, a suspension of EU funding during 1993/94, and outputs which were dissipated by the transfer of six major forest reserves to the jurisdiction of National Parks and Wildlife during 1992/93. Despite these constraints, the civil works programme under this component has been exemplary (177 out of the planned 215 buildings constructed or rehabilitated). 16. The identification and demarcation of Nature Reserves and associated buffer zones was prioritised on the basis of provisional scores for conservation value. Considerable effort has gone into raising awareness of the environmental value of natural forests. This emphasis in operations, combined with improved boundary control, has tended to mitigate against forest production and charcoal-making, both legal and illegal. No refining or charcoal operations were carried out under the component; and, since the training facility for hardwood sawmilling was not fully implemented under the IDA financed component, it is doubtful that any of the incremental production benefits envisaged have been obtained. However, improved forest management measures, supported also by the IDA component for Forest Department Rehabilitation, have led to a steady increase in recorded production from natural forest reserves. 17. The lengths of boundaries treated greatly exceeded targets, which has contributed markedly to restoring the integrity of Forest Reserves. Enrichment planting within intact forest had, by the end of 1994, reached 62% of target, while plantings within encroached forest had reached 38%. These are satisfactory achievements, because experience has shown that adequate natural regeneration often removes the need for planting, and requires less follow-up and maintenance inputs. 18. The net effect of the natural forest management rehabilitation component has been to lay some foundations for conservation and sustainable productive management of natural forests in the long term, but with less emphasis on production benefits and income generation in the short term. 5 (iv) Rehabilitation of softwood plantations 19. The SAR identified four sources of incremental benefits under this IDA financed component, namely: sawmilling, principally by the private sector; an improved conversion factor in such mills; softwood charcoal production from non-millable wood; and, an increase in plantation productivity arising from improved forest fire protection and reduced wind damage. The component succeeded in addressing the first two of these. As regards the third benefit, softwood charcoal, some experimentation kilning was carried out, leading to the conclusion that softwood charcoal would have have potential demand in industrial applications. 20. Given the over-mature age-structure of Uganda's industrial softwood plantations, the key target for the component was for clearfelling and replanting. Less than 20% of this target was achieved because the private sector was too debilitated to respond to the challenge, although market demand for softwood was set to expand with the return of peace and stability to Uganda. In retrospect, the omission of an IDA project component in support of the private sawmilling sector is judged to have been a design failure. Notwithstanding, up to 20 softwood sawmills have been imported by the private sector, following the early lead given by the project. Moreover, other benefits were realised through an effective training programme in softwood sawmilling assisted by the UNDP/FAO training component. Overall, this component succeeded in promting the use of softwoods in the market as a partial subsitute for hardwood from natural forests. 21. The crops in the softwood plantations were generally too old for thinning and pruning, and the relatively low achievements (pruning 27%, thinning 9%) will not have adversely affected the final crops. Considerable success has been achieved with new planting, (93% achieved). The associated needs for maintenance, pruning and thinning represent additional challenges which need to be addressed by FD in the future. 22. The civil works programme in the softwood plantations was minimal (only 8 out of the planned 41 buildings were constructed or rehabilitated). No fire towers were constructed. 23. Overall, the IDA component, Forest Department Rehabilitation offered little management support or supervision to field activities in the industrial plantations, with the exception of several forest inventories which were carried out. Sound planning, timely operations and labour productivity in the softwood plantations were adversely affected by delays arising from IDA disbursement procedures and GOU clearances. (v) Strengthening of the Forestry Department 24. The SAR objectives for this IDA financed component for institutional strengthening covered logistical support, planning and management, inventory (both industrial softwood plantations and natural forests), research and training (the last two 6 are dealt with under separate heading). The major part of IDA funding was committed to technical assistance, civil works, vehicles and equipment under this component. 25. The impact of forest department rehabilitation was far below expectation. The construction or rehabilitation of houses, offices or other buildings was unsatisfactory. In the districts, few of the planned construction or rehabilitation of houses and offices took place. At Headquarters, the mechanical workshop, training sawmill and new HQ office block are only about 70% complete, and are largely unusable at this stage. Problems arose from delays in building approvals by the Ministry of Housing, irregularities in payments to the contractor, and reluctance by WB and GOU to impose and execute sanctions against the contractor. It should be noted, however, that the transfer of FD headquarters from Entebbe to Nkawa increased substantially the size and cost of the new headquarters building. 26. The setting-up of management systems, including monitoring and reporting and overall programme management and coordination, was unsatisfactory. Initially accounting and procurement systems were unsuitable, but in later years adequate systems were installed. 27. The provision of vehicles and equipment under this component experienced problems arising from IDA procurement procedures, delays by BOU in the issue of letters of credit, and GOU tender approvals. As a results first deliveries were delayed until 3 years after the project had started. 28. The inventory of natural forest and softwood plantations has performed remarkably well. The benefits from its outputs have not yet been fully translated into the planning and management of forest resources. However, FD capability to conduct further inventory has definitely been enhanced. 29. Most of the FD staff met by the mission benefited eventually from vehicle provision, lamented the lack of civil works, but had little to say regarding technical assistance for planning and management. This technical assistance involved cooperation with long term and short term experts and the commissioning of a number of successful studies. Little impact by the Project on improved program planning and execution, at strategic, tactical or operational levels, seemed evident to the mission. This observation on the transfer and absorption of skills qualifies the contribution of the Project interventions to FD sustainability. (vi) Training and Research 30. The SAR objectives for the (UNDP and IDA funded; FAO executed) training component were to rehabilitate Nyabyeya Forestry College in order to provide in-service training; rehabilitate Nakawa sawmill in order to provide training in mill and logging operations; and to undertake limited study tours. 7 31. This component was successfully completed. In particular, the training programme has achieved most of its objectives in terms of numbers of trainees, preparation of training material, awarding fellowships and study tours and conducting in- country training. Training conducted under this component, as well as under the EU component, was instrumental in introducing new concepts in community involvement, forest management and conservation. However, the training component was constrained by the delayed rehabilitation of the training facilities at Nyabyeya Forestry College, and to some extent did not provide sufficient field experience. Nevertheless, the implementation of this component according to plan at an early stage of the project maximised its contribution to FD institutional building. 32. The rehabilitation of Nyabyeya Forestry College provides the basis for effective training of forestry staff. The sawmill training (largely carried out under IDA funding) was effective in training operators for sawing of softwood, but did not include training for hardwood sawing due to non-rehabilitation of facilities. 33. Although the SAR did not place high priority on new forestry research, provision was made for a consolidation phase, some agroforestry research and some infrastructure for seed services, under IDA funding of Forest Department Rehabilitation. None of the envisaged civil works was carried out, but vehicles were provided. Technical assistance in agroforestry research was not provided, and there do not appear to be substantial outputs from this sub-component. The FD seeds programme is currently supported by UNSO, but to only a limited extent. There is, therefore, still an urgent need for concerted financial and technical support for silvicultural and agroforestry research. Project Management 34. The SAR recognized the critical importance of national project management, supported by TA to FD. The project management faced substantial difficulties in carrying out its responsibilities. These difficulties included: (i) disbursement procedures of IDA and BOU, issue of Letters of Credit, approvals from Central Tender Board and from Ministry of Housing; (ii) lack of an effective and operational monitoring and reporting system, as well as an effective system of financial control for the project; (iii) lack of comprehensive operational planning of activities by project management during implementation; (iv) insufficient priority given to the supervision of field activities by project management staff; and, (v) lower than expected transfer of managerial skills by TA to the national team. 35. During the latter years of the project implementation, project management was also confounded by certain factors; e.g. the decentralisation of forest administration, the transfer of some forest reserves to National Parks and Wildlife and the restructuring of the responsible Ministry. 8 Supervision and Review Missions 36. The number of supervision and review missions fielded, in response to different needs particularly at earlier stages of project implementation, was sufficient. In addition, a number of short-term World Bank staff visits to review progress and follow-up project activities were also carried out. There was continuity between missions in terms of follow-up on critical issues, recommendations and plans of action. The quality of mission reporting was high and provided accurate analysis of project progress and difficulties, recognizing important issues and constraints, and seeking pragmatic solutions. This achievement would not have been possible without the positive and constructive contribution of the project management team, as well as other concerned officers of GOU. 37. Although it was agreed during negotiations that a mid-term review mission should take place no later than 31 March 1990, the delayed project start-up precluded this mission. Instead, restructuring of the project was carried out in 1991 and no formal mid- term review was conducted. Overal Project Impact 38. The overall project impact was mixed and varied by component. There were several shortcomings in the achievements of the various components (as discussed earlier). However, considering the debilitated state of FD and the forestry sub-sector prior to project implementation, the overall impact of the project was positive. In particular, the project contributed to the improved knowledge about the national forestry resource; protection and conservation of the natural forest; FD staff capacity building; and involvement of the private sector in forest production. However, more substantial achievements were anticipated. The FD still needs: an effective planning, reporting, monitoring and evaluation system; completion of the civil works programme; and effective management of production forests based on the findings of inventories carried out. Borrower and Bank Performance (i) Project Design 39. The Bank's identification, preparation and appraisal of the project design were highly relevant and in line with GOU national development objectives and priorities. Although the project design was ambitious in nature, it was the first comprehensive programme for the rehabilitation of the forestry sub-sector after 20 years of chronic deterioration of forestry management. The design reflected balanced objectives of forestry production, resource conservation and environmental protection. It also endeavoured to involve the private sector and NGO's in forestry development. Various relevant and realistic risk elements were recognised in the SAR, and some of these compensated for by TA. 9 40. On the other hand, there was a number of shortcomings in the preparation and design of the project. These shortcomings included: (i) over-ambitious project objectives, given the capacity of FD; (ii) national participation in the identification, preparation and appraisal of the project was limited to counterpart collaboration during WB visits to Uganda; (iii) cancellation at appraisal of the proposed (at preparation) credit facility to assist the sawmilling industry; (iv) overlooking the resettlement issues and omitting to explore alternative options for local communities that could be affected by eviction of encroachers; (v) incorporating relatively high level of GOU counterpart funding that later proved unrealistic; and, (vi) over-reliance at appraisal on provisional and unreliable cost estimates for civil works. (ii) Flow of Funds 41. Over the first four years of the project implementation phase, counterpart funding was insufficient. Although adequate counterpart funds were provided during the last two years (1993-94) of project implementation, the flow of these funds was irregular and uncertain. This undermined planning, timeliness of operations and labour productivity. 42. The GOU, however, reacted favourably to IDA's requests of improving cumbersome banking procedures (especially for obtaining letters of credit) by allowing the project to bank at a commercial bank and improved certification procedures for civil works. In addition, during the last three years of the project, the borrower assigned high priority rating to the project and thereby increasing the chances of obtaining GOU funding. 43. Although no retention by FD of a proportion of project generated revenues were authorised by GOU during the project implementation, in 1995/96 FD has been authorised to retain a certain proportion of its revenue. This arrangement should contribute to project sustainability. 44. The Bank responded positively to GOU request for increased IDA's contribution to recurrent operating costs (1993-94) which resulted in improved field work performance particularly in plantation development and inventory. (iii) Procedures 45. The Bank's complex procedures, compounded by those of the GOU, were not conducive to smooth and prompt project implementation, particularly in the early stages when project management was not yet conversant in the Bank's procurement procedures. 46. The disbursement issue and difficulties encountered in banking procedures with Bank of Uganda, especially those related to procurement, should have been addressed by the Bank at an earlier stage of implementation. These problems, however, were addressed and largely resolved in 1991, resulting in improved performance of the project. In this regard, there was a positive reaction from GOU, and a partial improvement in the management of accounts and finances as negotiated with the Bank. 10 (iv) Coordination and Management 47. The Borrower agreed to establish and maintain in operation a Project Coordination Committee (PCC) with responsibility for coordination among concerned Government ministries, as well as between international financial agencies and FD. Although PCC was established, it met too infrequently to be fully effective. It also lacked continuity of key members owing to ministerial restructuring. The consequent lack of coordination led to certain project implementation problems especially in relation to sequencing, some overlapping of activities and to a loss of integration of project components. 48. The Borrower agreed to prepare yearly and half-yearly reports to the Bank on physical and financial progress. The reports received were inadequate in recognizing management difficulties and problems (especially during the early years of implementation) and in proposing solutions. This was partly due to lack of an effective monitoring and reporting system for project activities. D. FUTURE OPERATIONS AND MAIN LESSONS LEARNED Future Operations and Sustainability 49. The SAR envisaged a long-term life span for the project's future operations (36 years), particularly in view of the harvesting cycles involved in industrial plantation and natural forest components. Given the limited achievements of the project in generating and retaining sufficient revenues from its benefits, there is a risk to the future sustainability of the project interventions. 50. The following measures would contribute towards reducing this risk of un- sustainability: (i) the retention by FD of a greater proportion of its revenues for the partial funding of recurrent costs; (ii) greater private sector involvement in the commercial development of the industrial softwood plantations and in afforestation at farm level; and, (iii) in the short term, external funding for both the private and public sectors could be used in the implementation of complementary projects. 51. In particular, external funding for the recently identified South West and South East Integrated Watershed Management Project would contribute positively to the sustainability of some of the activities already initiated under the present project. 52. In addition, for the sustainable development and conservation of forestry in Uganda, there is a need for the FD to proceed with and finalise the ongoing formulation of a National Forests Action Programme (NFAP) for the forest sector, as an integral component of the National Environment Action Programme. Within the NFAP strategy, complementary forestry development projects could be identified for external and national funding. 11 Main Lessons Learned (a) Full and active national participation in all phases of the project cycle should provide a realistic approach to practical design and implementation, and ensure national ownership of the project. (b) An increasing reliance on counterpart funding during and beyond the project life is a pre-requisite for project sustainability. In order to ensure continued government commitment, project appraisal should emphasise the financial as well as economic rates of return. (c) If a Project Preparation Facility (PPF) is included in the project design, the project management should be thoroughly briefed on the use of PPF and Bank procurement procedures in order to maximize benefit from the facility. (d) The development and adoption of monitoring and evaluation systems should build on existing practices and take into account the national capacity to absorb changes. (e) For the management of projects that include major institution building components, there is a need to develop qualitative indicators to assess achievements of objectives, rather than relying solely on delivery of project inputs. (f) Project appraisal should evaluate not only the expected benefits of project interventions, but also their possible negative impacts, especially on local communities, (e.g.to deal with the consequences of the eviction of forest encroachers and prohibition of illegal pitsawing). E. NEXT STEP 53. Upon return to Rome, the mission will prepare a draft ICR for submission to IDA by the end of October 1995. GOU has prepared a draft ICR which is currently being finalised. The revised version will be submitted to IDA in due course for incorporation in the final ICR. REPUBLIC OF UGANDA FORESTRY REHABILITATION PROJECT APPENDIX B NOTES ON ECONOMIC ANALYSIS General 1. Separate economic analyses [tables B13-B16] have been carried out for the four benefit-yielding components streams, namely: (i) Industrial Softwood Plantations Rehabilitation, (ii) Rehabilitation ofNatural Forest Management, (iii) Peri-urban Plantations and (iv) Farm Forestry. Costs associated with the two institutional strengthening components, (v) Training and (vi) Strengthening the Forestry Department have been allocated to the first four components, in proportion to their costs in Ugandan shillings [table 13]. In addition, an overall economic analysis [table B12] has been carried out for all components combined. Prices 2. The calculation of production benefits relies on estimates of stumpage values for logs (both softwood and hardwood), fuelwood and poles. All stumpage prices have been calculated in constant 1995 prices, [table Bl 7]. Except for the rural pole market, all prices are economic (shadow) prices, rather than market prices. 3. Stumpage values for logs (Ush 25,449/m3 for softwoods; Ush 39,932/m3 for hardwoods) have been derived from the export parity values of sawn timber. These prices, representing the actual opportunity cost for sawn timber, are substantially higher than domestic prices. The principal export market for softwood timber is Kigali, Rwanda; and, for hardwood timber, Nairobi, Kenya. In the absence of firm local data, average world prices for sawnwood have been assumed ($234/m3 and $432/m3 for softwood and hardwood timber, respectively). 4. In deriving the stumpage values, costs of transport have been updated, and production costs (sawmilling and logging) have been applied at 60% of ex-mill value (slightly lower than the SAR figure of 70%). Poorer log conversion rates (33% for softwoods; 30% for hardwoods) than the SAR figure of 40% have been assumed. 5. Fuelwood values (Ush 5,444/ stacked) have been derived on the basis of the Kampala market price (Ush 750/litre) of the kerosene equivalent of the usable calorific value of firewood. The kerosene value represents the opportunity costs of firewood. The calculation (which takes into account the relative efficiency of the combustion of fuels) is essentially an update of that done in preparation for the SAR (Working Paper 13, table 7). However, it should be noted that the final SAR used market prices, not kerosene equivalent. The use of a shadow value imputes a higher value for firewood than market price. 6. Pole prices have been valued at a market price (Ush 800 per pole), at roadside in rural areas. The price is an average, applied regardless of quality class. Harvesting costs of Ush 100/pole are assumed. 2 Benefits 7. The benefits arising from the four benefit-yielding components above derived from: (i) thinning of newly planted softwood plantations, clearfelling and selective salvage felling of existing softwood plantations, and improved utilisation; (ii) selective felling of commercial hardwoods from natural forests; (iii) pole and firewood production from peri-urban plantations established on Forest Reserves by both the Forestry Department and private farmers; and, (iv) pole and firewood production from on-farm planting. 8. Only the incremental benefits have been attributed to project interventions. As might be expected after the elapse of eight years, the magnitudes of these benefits realised differ markedly from the SAR assumptions. Moreover, project activities and benefits are generally assumed to continue after the project ended in 1994, until year 2023. However, this process would be conditional on a continuing commitment by GOU to post-project costs. Industrial Softwood Plantations Rehabilitation 9. Production benefits have been estimated for all the area of selective salvage felling, the incremental area of clearfelling and the areas of thinning at age 15 years of crops planted during the project. 10. Reported areas of clearfelling and salvage felling during the project period (1988- 94) were 379 and 526 hectares, respectively. The clearfelling was significantly less than the SAR figure of 2,000 hectares. Although a small amount (10%) of the planned thinning (9,800 hectares) was carried out, none was commercialised. Nor did any softwood charcoal conversion of thinnings take place on a commercial basis. The need for salvage felling was not envisaged in the SAR, and arose from tree mortality caused by conifer aphid infestation. 11. Incremental clearfelling from year 1989/90 (amounting to 344 ha.) has been calculated with reference to a base figure of 5.0 hectares per year from 1986/87 to 1988/89, and is assumed to continue at 1993/94 levels after the project. From 2013 onwards, the newly planted areas (690 ha planted during the project) would contribute towards clearfelling yields, if harvested on a 25 year rotation. 12. In the absence of comprehensive production records, and in view of the poor prevailing crop conditions, conservative merchantable yields have been assumed, using figures obtained locally in Uganda. The assumed yields are 50, 150 and 20 m3/ha for selective salvage felling, clearfelling and thinning, respectively. 13. Most of the incremental production was from private sector sawmills, encouraged by the project. The project also contributed towards better sawmill recovery rates, through improved softwood sawmilling practices. The SAR figure of 20% increase in 3 recovery on 50% (i.e.10%) of the offtake is assumed. The effect of this improvement on log conversion rates is assumed to an increase from 30 to 33%. 14. The SAR also included a productivity increase arising from improved protection against wind and fire damage. Such thinning and pruning, as did take place, was applied to crops which were too old to benefit. Nor did the project implement fire protection measures. Consequently, no increased productivity due to better protection has been assumed. Rehabilitation of Natural Forest Management 15. Although it is difficult to associate increases in production from the natural forests with specific project interventions, there was a steady increase in recorded production from selective felling in natural forest reserves. These incremental amounts are presumed to be benefits of sustainable management of the natural forest. 16. Incremental yields from year 1989/90 have been calculated with reference to a base figure of 126,900 m3/ha, calculated as the average of production in years 1986/87- 1988/89, and is assumed to continue at 1993/94 levels after the project. 17. The SAR envisaged that some of the production benefits from natural forest management would come from the refining (thinning) of "non-commercial trees" for conversion to charcoal, and through improved utilisation arising from better logging and sawmilling practices. Since neither charcoal manufacturing nor hardwood sawmilling activities were promoted under the project, the corresponding benefits have not been included. 18. The viewpoint was expressed to the ICR mission that other benefits, such as the contribution of natural forest management to biological diversity were a benefit that should be acknowledged. However, in the absence of available and appropriate indicators and prices, to quantify these external benefits, the conservation and environmental benefits of the project were not explicitly considered in the economic analysis. Peri-urban Forestry 19. Information on area and harvest volumes concerning Forestry Department plantations under the peri-urban component was available. But, for private planting, only area information was available. Total nominal areas established during the period 1988- 94 were 1,513 and 756 hectares by the FD and private farmers, respectively. 20. Based on the SAR assumptions regarding survival rate (75%) and nominal hectare equivalents (2,500 seedlings/ha), the effective cumulative area is expected to expand progressively to a combined total of over 6,500 hectares by year 2007. This assumes that new planting continues at the rates experienced in the last year of the project (1994), and 4 that the effective area depreciates at 5% per annum, thus allowing for replacement planting, written-off areas, etc.. 21. Applied to the cumulative effective areas, the calculation of benefit is based on average annual productivity figures, assumed in the SAR, for firewood and pole production of 12.5 stacked cubic metres and 80 poles (classes I & II), respectively. The use of average annual figures here contrasts with the SAR approach in which yield is calculated according to exact felling regimes. 22. Assuming a 4 year rotation, and using the average yield approach, benefits accrue from year 1991 onwards. The SAR assumed that felling of existing FD plantations would commence in 1988, thus providing an early benefit stream. However, this expectation was not fulfilled. Farm Forestry 23. The only source of information regarding farm forestry related to the number of nurseries and annual seedling production capacity. In total, there were 351 nurseries established in 17 districts, each with a capacity of 5,500 seedlings per year. After this component was terminated prematurely in 1992, 299 of these nurseries passed into private management by retrenched workers. Seedling production was just 10% of the SAR target. 24. Based on the SAR assumptions of a survival rate of 60% and of a nominal hectare equivalent of 2160 seedlings/ha, an effective cumulative area of 2,976 hectares is estimated to have been established by 1994. Thereafter, the effective area is assumed to decline in accordance with a depreciation allowance of 5% per annum, to allow for replacement planting, written-off areas, etc.. Applied to the cumulative effective areas, the calculation of benefit is based on a lower average annual productivity than peri-urban plantations, proportionate to the lower stocking of 2160 versus 2500 trees per ha.. 25. The peak annual production assumed is 27,000 m3 (stacked), against an SAR figure of 869,000 m3 (stacked) per year. Likewise, maximum annual pole production is assumed to be 174,000 poles against 6,100,000 poles per year. Set in the context of existing national production, the SAR estimates are considered to have been over optimistic. But, also, the farm forestry component failed to reach its full potential owing to the curtailment of the component. 26. The beneficial influence of farm trees on agricultural crop productivity was emphasised in the SAR. Although some agroforestry tree species were distributed, the vast majority of seedlings produced under this component were of eucalyptus, from which no crop benefit could be derived. 5 Cost Assumptions Direct Component Costs 27. Data on disbursements, in currencies of origin, by component and by year, were collected in the field from the project accountant and responsible officers in Kampala. In general, the period covered is 1988-94. But, in the case of IDA and EU disbursements, and GOU counterpart contributions, figures for 1995 have been included because the 1995 disbursements were in respect of 1994 commitments; [tables B7-B8]. 28. The field data for IDA disbursements, and for GOU counterpart contributions expressed in US dollars, was adjusted to reconcile the field data with the IDA disbursement record obtained from Washington DC. A summary, [table Bl], shows total disbursements and government contributions by component, year and source. 29. The disbursements for all six components have been converted from US dollars into Ugandan shillings, using IMF period average exchange rates, corrected by WB conversion factors for years 1988-93, [table B10]. 30. In order to compare costs with benefits, it was necessary to adjust costs to constant 1995 price levels. Because the external disbursement figures were denominated in international currencies (US $, ECU and Nkr), the G-5MVU World Bank index was used as the appropriate financial deflator. For government counterpart contributions, the WB country GDP deflator for Uganda was used, [table B11]. A statement of project costs, in historical and current 1995 prices, is given, [table B2]. Allocation of Institutional Strengthening Costs 31. As mentioned above, the costs associated with the two institutional strengthening components, (v) Training and (vi) Strengthening the Forestry Department have been allocated to the benefit-yielding components, in proportion to their costs in Ugandan shillings [table B3]. This was also done in the SAR, but with different proportions. The basis of the SAR allocation was not clear to the ICR mission. Post-project Costs 32. In order to ensure that benefits should continue after project termination, it has been assumed that post-project costs under each benefit-yielding component will be funded, principally by GOU, at the same level as during the last financial year, 1994/95. These costs are projected, in constant 1995 price levels, up till year 2023. Economic Rates of Return 33. The project demonstrates an overall economic rate of return (ERR) of 9%, provided that post-project benefits will be realised through a continuing commitment by GOU to post-project costs. This rate is lower than the SAR estimate of 15%. The figures 6 for the ERR of individual components are substantially lower than the SAR estimates. The lower figures attained reflect the generally depressed production levels achieved by the project, [table Bl2]. 34. The peri-urban component (ERR: actual 5%; SAR 7%), although well implemented, has featured a heavy commitment to civil works, which would require an emphasis on higher value pole products, rather than fuelwood, to justify. Without the burden of overheads, private farmer planting is likely to be profitable. A contributory factor to the relatively low ERR was the slower build-up of production benefits than envisage in the SAR. 35. The farm forestry component suffered from the withdrawal of DANIDA's support. The consequent failure to realise seedling production and planting activities, on the scale envisaged in the SAR led, to a corresponding reduction in production benefits. No benefit for improved agricultural crop productivity was imputed. Therefore, the ERR estimate of 6% for the component is much lower than the SAR figure of 20%. The SAR figure for the ERR is considered to have been a high range estimate. 36. The industrial softwood plantation rehabilitation component, for reasons outlined previously, fell far short of its production targets. Consequently, the ERR is much less than the SAR estimate, which was exceptionally high, partly owing to the pre-existence of available softwood resources for harvesting, (actual 10%; SAR 51%). 37. Likewise, the rehabilitation of natural forest management component has been associated with less production than envisaged. Again, the ERR is well below the SAR estimate, (actual 10%; SAR 45%). Sensitivity Analysis 38. A sensitivity analysis (table 18) shows that the project ERR is sensitive to increase in costs and decrease in benefits. Had the costs been 20% lower, or the benefits 20% higher, the ERR would approach the SAR estimate of 15%. 39. Owing to its magnitude, and its cash flow profile, the rehabilitation ofnatural forest management is the most influential component. Although the benefits of planting may only be realised in the distant future, activities which yield benefits from the exploitation of pre-existing resources can have a critical effect on the economic rate of return. APPENDIX B ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Appendix B: table 1: TOTAL DISBURSEMENTS AND GOVERNMENT CONTRIBUTIONS (US dollars) TOTAL DISBURSEMENTS (US$) 1988-95 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 by component and year (a) 1 -8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Peri-urban Forestry 2,524,632 507,814 542,518 278.271 307,587 499,443 388,999 Farm Forestry 2,410.514 30,000 439,339 653,710 1,227,186 60,279 0 0 0 Natural Forest Mgmt. 10,197,663 0 321,550 1,276,680 2,630,134 1,239,912 1,701,977 1,253,098 1,774,313 Softwood Plantations 2,412,925 15,524 56,000 63,067 129,578 428,504 446,685 953,171 320,395 Forest Dept.Rehab 13,118,170 1,030,709 2,000,872 1,178,409 2.810,791 1,764,487 1,980,065 1,754,152 598,685 Training 1,586,664 688,885 578,755 214,219 5.079 96,351 3,375 0 0 Total Disbursements (US $) 32,250,568 1,765,118 3,904,330 3,928,603 7,081,039 3,897,120 4,631,545 4,349,421 2,693,392 TOTAL DISBURSEMENTS (US $) 1988-95 NFS/ DANIDA CARE EU UNDP - IDA GOU by component and source (a) 1 - 8 NORAD Peri-urban Forestry 2,524,632 2,524,632 Farm Forestry 2,410,514 2,260,514 150,000 Natural Forest Mgmt. 10,197,663 10,197,663 Softwood Plantations 2,412,925 2,101,160 311,764 Forest Dept.Rehab 13.118,170 11.674,318 1,443,853 Training 1,586,664 1,586,664 Total Disbursements (US $) 32,250,568 2,524,632 2,260,514 150,000 10,197,663 1,586,664 13,775i, 1,755,617 Appendix B: table 2: TOTAL DISBURSEMENTS AND GOVERNMENT CONTRIBUTIONS APPENDIX B IN HISTORICAL AND CONSTANT 1995 PRICES (local currency) ECONOMIC ANALYSIS TOTAL DISBURSEMENTS (M Ush) 1988-96 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 unadjusted prices (a) 1-8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Peri-urban Forestry 1,690 86 173 153 296 600 381 Farm Forestry 1,019 2 75 209 676 58 0 0 0 Natural Forest Mgmt. 8,024 0 55 408 1,449 1,191 2,045 1,227 1,648 Softwood Plantations International (IDA) 1,990 1 8 18 63 404 487 819 190 Domestic (GOU) 291 0 1 2 8 8 50 115 107 Forest Dept.Rehab International (IDA) 7,750 54 299 342 1,370 1,663 2,159 1,507 355 Domestic (GOU) 926 7 41 35 178 32 220 211 201 Training 307 41 98 68 3 93 4 0 0__ _ 0 Total Disbursements (M Ush) 21,997 106 662 1,256 3,901 3,744 5,566 4,260 2,502 TOTAL DISBURSEMENTS (M Ush) 1988-95 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 in constant 1995 prices (b) 1 -8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Peri-urban Forestry 1,819 0 104 198 171 316 639 392 0 Farm Forestry 1,146 2 90 238 754 62 0 0 0 Natural Forest Mgmt. 8,508 0 66 465 1,616 1,274 2,177 1,262 1,648 Softwood Plantations International (IDA) 2,085 1 10 21 70 432 518 842 190 Domestic (GOU) 360 1 5 6 21 14 66 138 107 Sub-total 2,445 2 16 27 92 446 585 980 - 298 Forest Dept.Rehab International (IDA) 8,324 65 360 390 1,528 1,779 2,298 1,550 355 Domestic (GOU) 1,655 76 195 114 464 57 295 254 201 Sub-total 9,980 142 555 504 1,992 1,835 2,593 1,803 556 Training 352 49 118 78 3 99 4 0 0 Total Disbursements (M Ush) 24,249 195 948 1,510 4,628 4,032 5,997 4,438 2.502 FINANCIAL DEFLATORS (c) 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1 2 .3 4 5 6 7 8 International (q) 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Domestic (r) 10.3 4.8 3.3 2.6 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.0 eU Appendix B: table 3: ALLOCATION OF FORESTRY DEPARTMENT APPENDIX B AND TRAINING COMPONENT COSTS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS TO BENEFIT-YIELDING COMPONENTS TOTAL DISBURSEMENTS (M Ush) 1988-95 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 institutional strengthening 1 - 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Forest DeptRehab 9,980 142 555 504 1,992 1,835 2,593 1,803 556 Training 352 49 118 78 3 99 4 0 0 Total Training & FD Costs (M Ush) 10,332 191 673 2 1,995 191,934 2,597 1,803 556 TOTAL DISBURSEMENTS (M Ush) 1988-95 Chargable FD Cost by component (d) 1 - 8 Share Share Peri-urban Forestry 1,819 13.1% 1,350 Farm Forestry 1,146 8.2% 851 Natmal Forest Mgmt. 8,508 61.1% 6,316 Softwood Plantations 2,445 17.6% 1,815 Forest Dept.Rehab 9,980 0.0% Training 352 0.0% Total Disbuxsements (M Ush) 24,249 100.0% 10,332 APPENDIX B ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Appendix B: table 4: NFS (NORAD) DISBURSEMENTS PERI-URBAN PLANTATIONS AND PILOT WOOD FARMS NFS DISBURSEMENTS 1988-95 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1-8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Peri-urban Forestry (000 Nkr) (e) 16,906.2 3,506.2 3,396.0 1,804.0 1,911.5 3,543.1 2,745.4 Peri-urban Forestry (Us $) 2,524,632 507,814 542,518 278,271 307,587 499,443 388,999 Peri-urban Forestry (M Ush) 1,690 86 173 153 296 600 381 Exchange 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Rates (h) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Nkr/$ 6.517 6.905 6.260 6.483 6.215 7.094 7.058 Ush/Nkr 9.207 24.564 51.057 84.977 154.606 169.408 138.772 Appendix B: table 5: DANIDA/CARE DISBURSEMENTS FARM FORESTRY DANIDA/CARE DISBURSEMENTS 1988-95 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1)93 1994 1995 1-8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 DANIDA-Farm Fcrestry (US $) (f) 2,260,514 409,339 623,710 1,197,186 30,279 CARE-Farm Forestry (US $) (g) 150,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 Farm Forestry (US $) 2,410,514 30,000 439,339 653,710 1,227,186 60,279 0 0 0 TOTAL - Farm Forestry (M Ush) 1,019 1.8 74.5 208.9 676.1 57.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Exchange 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Rates (h) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Ush/$ 60.0 169.6 319,6 550.9 960.8 1,201.8 979.4 928.8 APPENDIX B ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Appendix B: table 6: EDF (EU) DISBURSEMENTS REHABILTATION OF NATURAL FOREST MANAGEMENT EU DISBURSEMENTS 1988-95 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1-8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 EDF funds (ecu) (e) 7,939,201 281,570 957,466 2,015,210 956,132 1,451,827 1,054,264 1.222,732 ISP funds (ecu) (j) 160,547 10,112 45,425 105,011 Stabex (ecu) 100,000 100,000 Natural Forest Mgmt. (ecu) 8,199,748 0 291,682 1,002,891 2,120,221 956,132 1,451,827 1,054,264 1,322,732 Natural Forest Mgmt. (US $) 10,197,663 0 321,550 1,276,680 2,630,134 1,239,912 1,701,977 1,253,098 1, 74,313 Natural Forest Mgmt. (M Ush) 8,024 0 55 408 1,449 1,191 2,045 1,227 1,648 Exchange 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Rates (h) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 $/ecu 1.184 1.102 1.273 1241 1297 1.172 1.189 1.341 Ush/ecu 71.034 186.967 406.851 683.391 1,245.965 1,408.870 1,164.115 1,245.892 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Appendix B: table 7: IDA DISBURSEMENTS AND GOVERNMENT CONTRIBUTIONS SOFTWOOD PLANTATIONS REHABILITATION IDA/GOU DISBURSEMENTS 1988-95 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1-8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 IDA funds (US $) 2,101,160 13,670 49,295 57,228 114,671 420,436 405,336 835.867 204,658 Gov.funds (US $) 311,764 1,855 6,705 5,839 14,907 8,067 41,349 117,305 115,736 Softwood Plantations (US $) 2,412,925 15,524 56,000 63,067 129,578 428,504 446,685 953,171 320,395 Softwood Plantations (M Ush) 2281.6 0.9 9.5 20.2 71.4 411.7 536.8 933.5 297.6 Appendix B: table 8: IDA DISBURSEMENTS AND GOVERNMENT CONTRIBUTIONS FOREST DEPARTMENT REHABILITATION IDA/GOU DISBURSEMENTS 1988-95 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1-8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 IDA funds (US $) 11,674,318 907,564 1,761,290 1,069,302 2,487,429 1,731,268 1,796,772 1,538,273 382,421 Gov.funds (US $) 1,443,853 123,145 239,583 109,108 323,362 33,220 183,293 215.879 216,264 Fcrest Dept.Rehab (US $) 13,118,170 1,030,709 2,000,872 1,178,409 2,810,791 1,764,487 1,980,065 1.754,152 598,685 Fcrest Dept.Rehab. (M Ush) 8675.3 61.8 339.3 376.6 1,548.5 1,695.3 2,379.6 1,718.0 556.1 Exchange 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Rates (h) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Ush/$ 60.0 169.6 319.6 550.9 960.8 1,201.8 979.4 928.8 Appendix B: table 9: UNDP DISBURSEMENTS TRAINING UNDP DISBURSEMENTS 1988-95 1987/88 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1-8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Training (US $) (k) 1,586,664 688,885 578,755 214,219 5,079 96,351 3,375 _ Training (M Sh) 307.4 41.3 98.2 68.5 2.8 92.6 4.1 0.0 Exchange 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Rates (h) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Ush/$ 60.0 169.6 319.6 550.9 960.8 1,201.8 979.4 9288 ug_lunds 12/10/95 Appendix B Economic Analysis Appendix B: table 10: EXCHANGE RATES Dollar Exchange Rates (n) 1986 197 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Uganda Shiling (Ush/$) 10.9 19.8 60.0 169.6 319.6 550.9 960.8 1,201d.8 979.4 928.8 Norwegian Kroner (Nkr/$) 7.3947 6.7375 6.5170 6.9045 6.2597 6.4829 6.2145 7.0941 7.0576 6.1881 ECU ($/ecu) 0.9812 1.1543 1.1839 1.1024 1.2730 1.2405 1.2968 1.1723 1.1886 1.3414 Ush Exchange Rates (p) 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 US dollar (Ush/$) 10.9 19.8 60.0 169.6 319.6 550.9 960.8 1,201.8 979.4 9288 Norwegian Kroner (Ush/Nkr) 1.5 2.9 9.2 24.6 51.1 85.0 154.6 169.4 138.8 150.1 ECU (Ushlecu) 10.6 22.9 71.0 187.0 406.9 683.4 1,246.0 1,408.9 1,164.1 1,245.9 Appendix B: table 11: FINANCIAL DEFLATORS Deflators 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 International (q) 1990=100 88.84 95.31 94.65 100.00 102.23 106.64 107.14 110.85 114.02 1995=100 77.92 83.59 83.01 87.70 89.66 93.53 93.97 97.22 100.00 Domestic (r) 1987=100 100.00 289.90 625.86 917.12 1,152.12 1,683.12 2,243.49 2,500.00 3,000.00 1995=100 3.33 9.66 20.86 30.57 38.40 56.10 74.78 83.33 100.00 file:UG EXCH 12/10/95 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Notes for tables 1-11: (a) Summary of tables 4 to 9 (b) Adjusted to constant 1995 prices by financial deflators (c) Financial deflators from World Bank tables; see table 13 (d) Pro rate to component costs in Uganda shillings at 1995 prices (e) Disbursements by component provided by project staff, Kampala. EU figure for 1994/95 adjusted for year-end 1994. (f) Disbursements by component provided by Project Accountant, Kampala (g) Confimed figures not available; $150,000 apportioned over 5 years. (h) Converted at published IMF exchange rates; see table 12 (j) ISP figures converted to ecu using project exchange rates. (k) Disbursements from UNDP final project revision 17 June 1994. (n) Source: International Financial Statistics, IMF (period averages; April figure for 1995). Exchange rates for Uganda, 1986-93, are adjusted using World Bank conversion factors. (p) Derived from cross-rates. (q) Source: G-5 MVU index, World Bank Commodity Markets quarterly review, March 1994. (r) Source: World Bank Country Tables, 1995. (s) Annual figures adjusted to give total IDA disbursement of $13,775,478. (t) Government figures apportioned between components pro rata to IDA disbursements UG FUNDS 12/10/95 � .�рргтдц и rconumlc �1паlуы's АррепдСг В. дЫа 12: ЕСОИОУIС iИГЕS OF RETUR►1 - SUYYARY FABLE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS sиттвгу (Y1rbn uenl �а1 19ыа-95 1юа 19е9 lвво 1еа1 1s92 19вз 1ее4 19ss iвэs --1ssi iв9d --�ssв- 2ооо гŭtii - 200�r �гюз �lхы zuus zг><!s zw7 1- е 1 2 з 4 s 6 ; е 9 1о 1, 1z 1з 1а 15 7о ;г 7ы 7ч zu Peг1-ltban Plantatloпs - -- --- ---- - ------ - - -- lnaefnвnnl8ene115 5б8 59 11,7 бВ 115 7ыз 247 .701 36S 420 471 S2l ',6г1 b12 г.�', ЬЧ', /а, 1иЧI �rectcosta {1.819J (104) (19е) (1г1) (з1s) (6391 1з92) FDcoslshвre (1,эsо (25) (ее) рб) (261) (г5э) (3�) (2зs) (7з) ' Posl- oectws� 392 _ (39'l1-_(465�- (аб�--(46S1--lasЫ---�1_ _�65) (4гл,) (465� tаь:.� 1аь:,� �ди,7 (дг.,1 et епе 1в 2.993 2 192 274 37�-- (425) (910) i51з) (282) _i21BL 15l 7) i100) - 4( 5) --- 7--- 56-- -- 103 1aEf !!ы7 73и 26а 90.:, Fцm Faaвty - - - lnrremerml Bannflts 9ы6 40 9б 14ь 19В 24s 25tl 270 256 243 г31 z20 1ич 1sы 1гж ! г� 7 ги 1о! 7� oredcosts (1.14s (2) (so) (2зе) р54) 1вz► fDco5lьhare (В51 (16) (55) (4В) (1fr1) (159) (214) (149) (46) � Роь[- lсоsк бе (sв) 1б� �sв) _�в) (бв) - 1sв) (бв) ;ьы1 1ьы> 1ын; 7сн� юn� lьи� et епе ts _ t,079 18 (t45) (246) (82з) р3) (16) 97 144 202 tee 175 tбз i52 - 141 i30 1s�o 777 1ir н.! ы5 ИаЬrа1 Fпwt Увперетапl trпemera,t Ввпеть 9,so4 20о s•zo 1,1зг 1,г97 2,e7s 2,ы5 z.ы75 2.ы75 г.нг5 4 ы75 г.ыга z.a� z ыг r вг:, :- иr, : им � иг, f ыг � oreacosгs (e.sae (66) (4s51 (1.ыы (1.274► (2.1п► (1,262) (1.648) � FDcos[sYrera (s.з1s (1п) (411► (з561 (1.220) (1.1821 п,sе7) (1.1oz) (340) 1 Post- оысгсоss �t.9ee) 11.9ы� (1•sеыl_fi.9ae) (1.9ыв) _�1 9ее) (1.9ыы) ii уыаl i! 3ии7 г! ина� ;! чнн� !1 вьнIII а[ епе [е 5,319 117 477 621 2,216 1,319 1,967 510 ве7 887 - её7 8ы7 8ё7 _aё7 - ёы - аа! еы ны аыг иы7 вы1 Soltvraod PYndtlms -- - - -- -- - -- I lгивтепбl Ввпе115 2.677 89 330 457 55ы 748 496 49б 496 496 496 496 496 J9fi '�U1 '�W �W �ц �чк� � dreclco5ls (2.445 (21 (1в) (27► 19г1 (а461 (se51 lеео) (2sы) 1 Fосовlвгwе (1.e1s (34) (118) (1а�) (э5о) (з401 (45s) (з1г) (че1 � Pos1- oect coslс (Э95) �s5�- �9s�- - �1i. �yL- L�! -- Ly'1 . _ (з9ь) i3ч�) {,ч-,j (sч��) ,1и�1 �3ч� -- -- - ие[ВвМf1b 1.58z _ (з6) (134) (4о) (11з) (з29) (аез) (s4e) 1оо __1оо 1бо _1оо- -1оо__ 10о iar 70о io8 7аэ 177 7эг t7x� А11CompanrnEta - -- ---- - -------- - - -- i ИаетвпНl8епеflв 13,736 Э29 1.104 1.ыВ5 2.622 3.984 3,В12 з.ВВ7 3,934 Э.9)5 4.021 4.062 41U0 д{J/ 41;н а:lf ,r46 а.1и7 4 fуJl �YectcoБls (13,91е (4) (vs) (s2в) (2.sзз1 (z.os71 (з.4оо) (2.бз41 (1.s4ы i FDcoвlchare (1о.ззг л91) (s73) rse2) (1.9чs) (,,9з4) (zssгy (1.еоэ) (556) I Posl- ectcosl5 _або _ _ _ __ •�60) �9tS)--�'_s16L�91б� г2_s_7��97� ('г.976� ,Lg7S) ;1ч�n� 7:ч!ь7 !_.��lо� i'ч!о7 7_:,+!oj Ивt Вепе114 10973 ,195) C948j (1 18��21L <2,147 3 З75L_�4� 856 971 _ 1.01д---7 ОЬЭ 7_70б --J7д6 _ 7 1В4 1_221 7 2b.} ! 7нI 1 1:1U � Эtlб э+i /1 1Е�АlD6<71{G`г1Н.ТЕ З ëCR i { 5'iA л} Сиь7sоЕ97аы7+nу�ид:>'rвгцГfw�иг�},1n�s�lt�xa„7pnu!д1�ыл�;�и{n 1 ; б_F_ %�_ TLS'RN.S ER �B�J i�� � .ittlзt,�г{r '.гг ьг,е 17�si ;а+_г г�lггисл!ыnч. - -- i- '� - -! -- - 5 - --- - - - 'i��1"! _il`�Уг г�'.tL'1i . 'l�й! �s'ы 1 С:�{л7 !-' Г[!4е�!_. .�_.�.' � �у•.., � �.,.- . _ . -.. лАг:,- . 1,•.. � , ,•. г• ' 01 1�С _ В60 С___ SBO С__ l LO С_ LSO G CZB г 60S г гг0 г 909 l lLL l Сь[ t 999 l 9ь9 � Сг9 l 6вS 1 ►rS L л�г�г.S 1siб`г.� �iв'г� iчiьzl �Тiь'гf��� е�в'г е►в'г s�в'г е�в'г е�в' е�в ч�в 9�6' а�в' а�в' лг.п's ыо�е ioo'ч iee'с г�в's вс�.'s szr's �св'ь zzt'ь сее'ь вsе'в ces'ь �es'в eCS'в r�s'ь оеь'ь ССл'l EES�I СС5't CCS'l CCS'l ь1С't �l0't 9►S МС гСС CbC в8г Фг MZ вУZ Оьг w,сТ� ��-�-�ГБ� Gвс sse sвс sве sвс sвс sвС sвС sвс 9вС sвс sвс sв sв BZ6�l 9Z6�1 Вгв'l BZ6'l Вгв'l OtL'1 t1r't lr8 ь►[ LZL BlL ь99 t99 199 ь99 SC9 С9В __ [ВВ _ L9B [ВВ LB8 LB9 Lo9 L9B L99 [99 [ВВ L9B [9У L9Y L99 L99 eee ii 1аяь�il деб'ij-Гë6'� ees'� еев'� ees'� еев'� еее'i ees'� еев'� 9ев'� аев'� еев'� еее'� ееб'� SIBr S/В'7. S!В'Z 5!В'Z S/В'Z S/В'Z S[B'г S[B'Z SL9'Z SLB'Z SLB'г CLB'г SCB'г SL9'г SLB'г SL9'г oi --- ё---- с << s► Б� ►г вг ье ве sь �s ts ье ос ot iвч► --�� -- (ел1 Тч es es ее s е ве s es ее 9 9 ве 99 �[ S/ 6L СВ L9 гб [6 7Al LOL Ctl бtl 5zl ZCt 9Cl 9rl l69 " -- SL9 BS9 Оь9 гг9 й19 l9S 09S LCS ClS L9r l9r ССь СО► г1Е 8ЕС cs�1 --(csr)--(�зь�слы--7чэы��ь sчь s9r s9r sчь sчь ser sэь sеь sчь ss► sc� i sci'► сг�'� so�'i seo'� счо'� sьо'� ьго'� �оо'► us гsв sгв tвв 9эе ссе we BF SГ Yf СС гС lC ОС 8г 9Z Lz 9г 9L Уг CZ Zz tz С7Аг г7АZ lгОг OzOZ 610Z ВIОг LIOZ 9lOZ SIOZ rlOZ CIOZ ztOZ IIOZ OLOL БООг 900Z Appsdoc и • Етютiс А�rlуьвs Аррмаlа В: tвав 13 PEF�-UPBAN FOFEST171I СОУРОИЕИТ F1EL0 DATA COLLECTED � ESTAH-1SHMENT А>: (hвС�г 1 - 1 t 189D 1р91 1962 1993 1941 19В6 1998 -t997�i996 199В 2(100 2001 2002 20оз ?001 ?ип� 2п06 2007 +-� 1 2 э в 5 е 7 е в а 11 1z 13 11 15 16 1/ 1е 19 н1 Forat Oepвrtmмt - --------- - - �- - - -- - plsnteO 1.513 123 132 212 293 1В1 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 272 2/'l '!/'l '1/2 2/2 ?/2 2I'1 - ситиlвlю (а) 117 236 426 БВ3 1.106 1.309 1.502 1,бВ5 1.tlS0 2.0�5 '1.162 2.:5:►1 2.{13 ?.бutl ?./;х; 1.tl5/ ? 9/3 l.utl,f l.1е/ РгПв[в 1'агтат - plsr�d 756 51 В1 129 145 317 317 307 J47 За7 347 317 3А1 34/ 74/ 34/ :14/ 3[/ 37l - ситиlв0ю в 18 126 212 3БВ 679 975 1 256 1.522 1, 776 у017 2 У16 2.467 __ ?.610 _?.66ti J.rn2 _ 7.'г19 __ 3 J9/ __ 3 ц/ Sв Rодп. 7.5б3 410 610 987 1.407 2.007 2,063 2.063 2.063 2.063 2.06� 2.063 2.063 2.ОГа'! 2.06� 2.06J 2.063 2.OG;f 2.06J 2.O6J А) 1NCF�MENTAL BENEFlTS АППид МагУввИ 1 - 1967 19ВВ 18ВВ 1990 1ВВ1 1992 199� 1994 1995 1996 1997 199В 199В 2000 --2001 2017Q 200.7 2001 2006 .2006 2007 1- 7 1 2 3 1 5 6 7 В 9 10 11 12 13 11 15 16 1/ 1tl Ю 20 Faa1 Dspвrtment --- - -- - � - - Freиootl (stedced 0о0 Sm3/(пj 1е 1.s э.о s з е.5 13.6 1s 4 16 е z1 1 zз z zs 3 v 3 г9 1 :еи ч :,? ь :w ? :,51 3/ ? Ро105 рФ po10slуг ) 117 9.3 1В.9 34 1 54 6 Вб.S 10t 7 120 2 134 В 14В 7 162 0 174 6 1 Вб 5 191 в 2utl 6 11и у 'l2B b 23/ и R1иte Fвrmr Ff вио од (5tedced Фо Sm3/уг) 5 0 6 1 6 3 0 1.6 8 5 12 2 15.1 19 0 ?2 2 25 2 2В 1 30 tl :►г а 3S tl ,fe 2 1и а Ро1еь 0 33 3 9 10.1 19 4 291 5�.3 78 0 1001 121 В 112 1 161 3 1/9 1 19/ 0 21:16 719 3 ?41 2 1]tl ! ПеГ1b 1UОП U8A) 1 - 1 19В8 1990 1901 196Q 1993 1981 1ВВ6 19А6 1997 19ВВ 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2001 .- 2006. 2006---.2007 1- 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 В 9 10 11 12 13_ N _ 15 16 11 1tl 19 2и FtawOOtl 12В 6 19 38 63 100 135 169 200 230 259 266 311 --3э6 --359 - 3В1 ----10Р -----171 Ра1е5 25В 51 124 31 52 67 111 139 165 169 213 235 256 2Г6 296 311 33t 341 паатеп ме в в 5�- 56ё -- б1i --65- 646 -- 737 -- 760 Q) PROJECT COMPONENT Г.QST ов е м h) i - 1987 t 1 19во 1991 199R 19в3 1 1 1996 19tэ7 199е t99в 2boo 20ot 20о2 2лоз ?na ?оо5 2aos 2оо1 1- 7 1 2 э 1 5 6 7 в а W 1t t2 1з 1а 15 1е v 1и 19 ?0 Dtввt Соы s (NFS/NOfUц7j (е) 1,в19 101 19е n1 з1s 639 392 -- --------- -- - - - --- - - - FD Cosl shera (� 1,27В 25 ВВ 76 261 253 339 236 73 Ро5!- о[costa _ _392 465 165 16S 465 46у 16S qG5 __ 46S 4b5 16� _ �о5 �w Сот пмt Сов[е Uan 30О7 25 1м 271 1�2 569 97s 6?л 466 466 18!S 165 105 1б6 --466-- 1б5 .1� -_.�_.. � � � Иоlов Аввит опв Аваит опв .. (в) ЕПерпа а еа двRеавtед v/ б%рвr уевг Ртlсов У{дд -�- - -- --- (е) Cos1 Пgres lтргпед trom А1е UG FUNDS Fuenvood (steaиd итр 5,441 usNSm3 nomulai lruшdrvrty 1в гп;угм/р т Snera of F D sVanpthmиg сотропвпt according to cost в11о®non Ро1еь ' 700 Ushlpole ытивl ив{теавЬоп 5�%, о1 а иы PoSt о dcoыsьatet/9B6f1 es ЕвдОllвПтвпtиваитрllопь � Агииоод(�гвиседигиl) 125 Sm:yrlalp тогlвиtу Гвсtв 25У6 po�as (по pиss 1 8 2) tl0 по л W/(+ потlпвl sеедтдьп�ег�ге 2.500 F U stran hепlпц __ 1! 1Чь cuato г: • ги х� - -�- 11(. 11 .1 � �� : � � :ё'� � ��� ,� � � � �� �;�� 1� � � . о riiпi i , I 1 � I 1 � ' 1 � ���I N� ���� ��� '-'� °'� i���= ��� �I: Л � и i д ui г;I � I i ; � i i i I��' =� ��� ��� :� �_� ���я�(V '�� ��, I f ЛIN i Л т I �^ '` I I I IIм I �I��� ; ё. ��� '�� я� �� ���� �� �i� i� 1 i 1f i i � j . а''г�! � ^ Irn_й тш г�о Iei� � jw�} 'ур � � N� ��� �R :т g�� IR �� ;я �i� I О f N Г1 1 I ' � Imмl NB .si�S3 °п ои иv т_�й� �"' �31I `�i 'I .г .г лi �i � п '`� п R ��i I ^ с�' ti уΡ �. ^�г� Ir. � ы м с� n г. �^�' �^ � r+� � й й �i д�N �R �$ ,^л',$ R и Q �R 5�� гf м i 'I i �R� Na �s�_� ,�� ё� �� 1���� ;R� ��f � .N , ,� i� I��'�с�'i� S.'ч'� �й�S и� .rn иrn ис®�с� иЕРi ��1 iR �, � �N � �� '�� �� 1R � вI 1 iI 4 � � l11 �� Г� ' �� � 1_ ^ В Ф О и I i^ И f') 1 +� lV т I � R V л У`� o fV � Q м� р и f С ♦�i Г7 CV f7VS и N Р{ � ! I � � `�c�i �'� Fi`�2S IR�i va ит R�pf.y� г�� '�qpl �ч г� �� ,� �Т, trI '.Q 3 ri о й b3 j'- � { � ^ И N иt�'� � СΡ�уΡ� fV � Т т 01 N lV �% рΡФ Ф Cl � f fV IN` tLi � N О r У� �(] f О � I� п а пi я сй n Fi fft I1 I 1 I О N � N И �� V р N г N Ф�i I{� N У� �. ^ N � L 7 I 3 IfV I п � гi fV ♦ м IN [VV Q I G IO_R' "'о �Ti214a о� �rnг� а�. o��Sy оFй �ур R `��-ei ncv R I��r ��j � �rf я' 3 1 i ;�� N� ��� �� g�� �� �р�Э� �г� ��i �; и N 1 � ��N, �г� ��� �N g�� N°� �"�� N ��� I мi п n1 с� е й � : Мграпгsв в Есагаnк иnyar Арр.пак в: ta01e 1.: FARмfoHESтRr сомРонЕит N {М(в Пе 1 - 1 1 19О1 1 1 1 1�5 -199В 1�' 19ВВ 19ВВ 2т0 Z(1<11 2002 2003- 2001�--20р$._... 2006 2007 7- 7 1 2 J 4 5 6 7 В 8 10 11 12 13 11 1S 1В 1! 1В 1Ч 2г1 Dlstkte - ---- - ---- -- - -- - - - УМ1М[ед 21 11 6 7 - axeuYUVe 11 17 17 17 21 Иггевгlве - MNtlaleд 351 215 108 - оитиlвWе 215 351 351 351 351 299 29В 5аедvlрагаlьедpOqryeвr) 1q711 t,316 1,901 1,901 1,901 t,9Э1 822 8?2 Еqиtиlвп[ вги - еппивl еаФОЧаптоrt 2 976 371 536 53В 536 536 2� 2� - aмut.wevs а �71 а9е 1.3ы� 1,ав1 г.тдв 2.ме 2sts 2.эоо 2.гi1 2.1s7 z,a9 1.917 1.ыя 1.7s7 1.вь9 1.5вь 1.wь -�.а1 --1.3со- -1:zвz А) 1NCRC1ьAENTAI_ вFN�1TS Агм1в1 Негеаеtв , - 18В7 19ВВ 19В9 19Э0 19Э1 19Э2 1�7 1991 1995 1996 19в7 1�В 1909 2000 2001 -- 200Р ---200.7 200в 20DS 1006 2007 ,-7 1 2 7 1 5 б 7 Е 9 t0 {1 12 {3 14 1S 16 5/ 18 19 20 ndd. (mow,- yr�i j 121.з s7 161 21.9 ЭзЭ 113 1sз 1sз �3о вов эаё -эs9 з5о зз�- - з1ь- 3о0 2иs zii zsë Fьеиоод(ama�aдaooSm3ryr) 7s1 1.о 96 11.9 2оо 21е 2so 272 259 215 2з3 221 21.0 2оо 1<�о 1ип 1i1 1ь� 15s Ро1еь es1 1Вв 6 25.9 61.6 9S6 127.9 t59 6 166 1 173 9 166 2 1S6 9 119 1 111 6 131 6 12/ Ь 121 1 1 1S 1 1Ш ь 11N 1 9tl 4 вепвПlв p191bn Wh) 1 18ВВ 19В9 19В0 19В1 18В2 19Э3 19Н1 1�5 1996 1�7 199В 19В9 2000 2001 2002 2003----2(7D1 ---20U5 2UOG 20D7 1- 7 1 2 3 1 S 9 7 В 8 10 11 12 13 11 15 16 17 1В 19 20 Ftеиоод 3� 22 52 В1 10Н 135 142 118 141 133 127 120 111 109 100 9В 93 В9 81 Раев 3�э 1е 13 s7 ю 11з 1п 1n 11s 11о 1а 99 91 в9 е5 е1 77 _ 7э _ s9 lпагвтвпtаl Bsnellta Ueh 7� {0 96 1М 1!b 216 29 270 258 2�3 231 2?а 209 19� 1Ф ---179 -170 161 1S7 в) PRQJ�cт ддМРом�1Т соsт Сов[в ( У911оп Uвh) 1 19В7 1В89 1989 19Н0 1ВВ1 1�2 1963 19э1 19В5 19вб 1997 199В 1699 2000 200i 2002 200.7 2004 2005 �� ZOU6 -2007 1- 7 1 2 3 � 5 В 7 t+ 9 t0 1t 12 13 ц 15 t6 t7 1в 19 2о DУеб Соа[а (DMIIDMCAFlE) (е) 1.116 2 90 23В 751 62 - ----------- --- --- - f0 Coal shers � ЕОЬ 16 55 48 1N 159 214 119 16 POaI- О acl ca6I6 6В 6tl 6В 6В 68 бВ 66 6tl Ьд titl otl Ьtl 6tl cow опепг со.[е им 1.9в1 1в 11s 2as 9я т z1a 11� ii1--- в� ---в� --вs-- бе -----г� _.-- вs--- г,б ы ве во ед ве Чоtве •auw ons АвайтрUдпi -'----------- ---_-- _ (eJ ErtacOre егае tleprecYtetl D1r Ь% рег уевг Р'гlспа У1дд (о) Coat Пqигеа mpatad fom П1е UG_F UNDS. Fиаhюод (ьоэдсед uruq 5,1Ч UstV5m3 потlпвl ргодиспvду 1В mJRie/y� т Stыa afFDaten�Пeranpcomponenlsccarдnptocoыenoca0an Ро1еь 700 Ush/роlе епгивlдеlтеавиоп у16 oterea Роь[ о act coala ад е[ t9B6 гrвь. Eetstllsnment вавитрllопа lгаwоод (slадсед urutj tOB Sm3pa/yi seeoYYlps/rurьey/yr 5,500 роlеь (по clвss �& г) 69 по �Т1иуг morOвЧryfaqor 1Ф6 FD atren пепм а2К� costs гк, sf :1 гют1гв15ееаИ fieclar 2.160 --- 12/1095 ОФ NФ рФ О� � О V 1Л NФ V N� О Ф N� ON ФN � i.�Ф N Nд � N1D ОФ i.1 О NФ NL1 О Ф fwd+tNdO ✓ tNJ О • 1� m _N N рΡ �7 рΡ, О NV� O� � Fjp о р�' Но �Ф i.. ИО� fDi r Ф Ф О�� 1ь1 в.+ ОФ Ч N �� Nt� N ЙО iD NN � �N рΡ�p� N O�NN � � �NN N ОФ Ф� У� NФ tOi vв (0 0� tO.� � О�� . О Ф v i V Ф Ф � л � Ф О �� � � л � 1 q рΡ� NN QиNФ � � N ОФ ФN ЧО�i О,� И Ф[.1 r Ф� � ФNI ОФ 1D Ф Vi (.�100О1 i.1 V NФФ � �Ф �� �� �� � ����� ��:�� � ��; ёFд �''т °ve��m �Ф.',�� Е!� ���i i • � o � 1N�� ё�а' �iй f+�й�G'� �иа гWO�.i� wr � • . I �q1 II NqрΡ О�Ф �� �Ф i�.ti.� � ФгС NtVOO �+I I�O' � q� N� ii�' SC� йУ=У� ыиаУ� �3 I>SI а _ г� уΡ р� I� � v„+ �{ � га R5 О й� �r�иг�ой� тюийi3 ии� i 1 p� p�� � �г�j I '� ФI� ��' �I O�fS' .�''i �' i�бl и а и��' и� �' � й 7 � С ) � r � nд,пт и • t,uиsnic An.y.ra Аррепдц 8: tade 1ti: NATUWIL FOFEST YANAGEYENT F1ELD DATA COLLECTED ' А) 1NCRF.t�1ENTAL BENEFITS HervвetУеlитеа роо 1 - 10В7 198е 10е9 1990 19В1 19В2 19В3 199в 1995 1996 1997 19ев 1999 2000 2001 2002 2ш3 2ш4 2ии5 2uw 2т7 t- 7 1 3 5 8 7 В 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 tti tf tд гч 2о - -- - -- ---- -- RвПпlпрlfhlnnnp (е) - 5еlешvаfдlирр) 16ь.о 5о 155 285 4so 72о 72о 7zo п0 п0 Г2о fzo /20 rzo fr0 r. и /: и /ги Г: и 1т oveolЛlЧeatюn TotelVolume т 166.0 5.0 15,5 2Q5 �50 720 720 720 720 720 720 720 720 /20 720 77U 720 770 720 Benelqs �111иоп 11eh) 1 - 1еВВ 19д9 19В0 19В1 1992 1993 1�4 199s 1996 1997 199е 1999 2000 -zaof--- 2W2 za0:! 2004 2005 200G 2007 1-7 1 2 3 1 5 8 7 8 _9 __ 10___ 11__ 12 13_ 14 _ 15 16 1/ гь 1ч ?и Waod Чwоыгр 6,629 200 бЯ 1.137 1,797 2,В75 2,В75 2,В75 2,В75 2.В75 2,В75 2,В75 2.875 2.tll5 2.a/S г tl/S 'l в/� ? В/ь 2 д/� СПВfсоеl СОПУQа1оП lnoressn0al Benaflts М Ue 6 629 2OD ЬЯ 1 137 1 Я7 2 075 2 tf75 2,Q75 2,е75 2,Q75 2,Q75 2,Q75 2,875 __�875 _�ti75 2,8/5 2,875 2�ВlS 2,875 В► РRб.lЕСТ OOMPONEtJT COST - --______.._.._�.Т--- - - ое е 1 0�1rj 1 - t967 t9B9 t9B9 1990 199i' 199�Г 993 1991 19дб 1898 19Н7 1в9в 19ч9 2о0о 2001 гсn2 ггn3 ги04 га1•, ?1nь 2cn7 1^7 1 2 3 • ti 8 7 В 9 10 11 12 13 14 1S 16 1/ 1д 1ч _7и DYгectCosls(ЕИ(е) б.В60 бб �65 1.616 1.271 2.177 1.?62 1.618 --.-._� --- -- - FDCOStalмre� 5,97б 117 �11 358 1,220 1,182 1,5117 1,102 3�0 Poat- о есс costs t 9еа t 9ве 1,see 1.see 1 9ве 1,эе8 г.чвь 1_чыь _ г чдь 1 чьь г.чдь i чгзь Сов опвпt Совtв Ueh 1�l36 117 в77 t21 2.t;i6 2.�56 3.76� 2.365 1.966 1.9� 1.YSS 1.9Ед 1,980 1.9вл 1.9еВ 1 988 - 1.9ае 1.9ве 1.9в8 t_98В 1.9Ве Noles Aesum tlona (а) Чо rettrunp ог ttrпжtp иаа геггюа ои[ ав а геsи[ af те ргоргt Ргlсов (ttj Felenp vоlитаь ers lмотеп0аl, wYh reterance to е bese Пpire о[ 148,�7 т3/уеег, Wooo 39,932 Ustym3 oelcutsteaas tneaverape otproшctlon 1п уеегв [рВ8;87-18��: тиь, Иогsпоптl СПвгсоаl usrumt production adrb в� 19BD/90, �д ia eeeurned to caг�tirю at 199.у9� 1eve� а8аг �s рго(егL FD 61.1% соЧs ui, и 1.1 (р Ио таоvод ееыпи wlleeuon was Romotea Gy the popot; tгю nspseve e�ect оп г�/ 1U,» RооидlоП of Oecouaglrq plaerrMlg 1в rqt Оь[1те[еб Ио hегдиюод cteroosl oдictlon овггlад ои еот геоевгоп ьеь . eës'i оеь'� аяs'� аав'► аов'► wв'► �s'► оае'► оав'► ваs'► �s'► авв't ив'► вве'► вw'► ваs'► вВ6'1 9в6'1 ввб'l eBF'1 ввб'l вВ6'l В96'l Вв6'l ВВБ'l ВВБ'1 ВВВ'1 вв6'1 в96't Вв6'l 9в6'1 9вВ'l së - sC ьс сс гс �С ое ег вг tг вг sz ►г Сг гг ►г саог ггог �гог огог s�oz в�ог иог вwг s►oz •1ог С►ог гlог ��ог о►ог еоог воог вгв'г_.__ s_л'г_ sta'г sл_г s�'г sл'г sл'г sл'г sл'г sл'г sл'г sл'г sл'г sл'г sл'г sл'г S!В'Z _ _S[B_Z^ SLB'Z _ SLB'_г __SL9_г SLB'г SLe'г S[B'г S[B'г Sl9'Z Sл'г SCB'г S!В'г 5[в�г SLe Z SLe'г �К: SC ЬС СЕ гС lC Of бг BZ Lг 9г Sz YZ CZ Zz lZ егог __ ггог_ lгог--- огог бloL вtог иог stoг Sloг ь Wz еlог гlог ltoг оlог 6DOZ eoDZ - огг огI- ог[- "- огг -` огг ozt ozt ozt огс огt ozt ozt огг ozt оц ог[ пг.i огг ог.г огг огс огг огг огс огг ozt огt огг огt огг огг ozt " sc sc - ьё sc гё ---ie ое Бг ег tz вг sг ы Сг и �г С7А7, zZOZ ^___lzoz ___ Оiог _-__ бloZ __ eloz LIOZ 9lог Sloz УLог Сlог ZIOZ lloZ Oloz fАог eoDZ г , ,• . � . � 7�Рвпа. а Ecanonrc Мвlуаiв Аррвпдiа В: ьЬУ 16: SOFПMOOD PUWTATION COYPON�Ii Fl�O DATA COLLECTED � Нвгrвеl АГввв (hвСtвМ) tЯ88-Я1 1897 1800 /ЯN 1qp0 1891 1892 1893 1994 1995 t99B 1997 1999 1999 2000 2001 2002 200з 200j 200,г 2oU6 2007 1- 7 3� 4 5 6 7 в s 1о n 12 13 и и 1s v 1е 1s то _ тыппг,я(.) - -----1з --- is 19 бв 19в cr.rиr (ь) 3м 14 5z 72 ев 11е 11е 11е 11в 11е 11в 11и 11и 11е 11и 11и 1 гв г ги 11ы SвN Fв11п с 526 21 во 110 135 1е 1 тогвl мw no з5 1зг и2 223 2ю 1и 11о i�s -iis -�1а 11s 11е 11е 131 1зз 137 1е4 296 А) 1NCREMEMAL BEPEf1TS F1uиt Yubsw р00д0) 1969-41 1ВВ7 1986 18в9 /8В0 1991 1992 1893 1961 1995 1996 1997 199В 1999 2000 2001 2002 2(К13 '1W4 2005 200б 2001 1- 7 1 2 3 4 6 6 7 В 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 ___ t6_ Ч 1tl _ 1ч _____ 20 Тhiгимгр О 3 0 3 0 4 1 3 J 6 Сlеегfвб 51.6 21 7.В 10.В 132 17.7 17.7 177 17.7 177 177 177 1/7 t77 1// 1// l/! 1// V7 Sвbвps Fs11nq 26.3 1.1 4.0 5.5 6 7 9 0 Рга.сооп 1т owdUtLcehon 7.В 03 1.2 16 20 27 1В 18 1В 18__1В 1В 1В 1tl 1tl __ ltl _ 1ы _ 1Ч t t ToWУдиlnв гг[1 95.7 3.5 13.0 17.9 21.9 29.4 19.5 195 19.5 195 195 19.5---195---195--- 198 19В 199 209 2J4 - - --- BMMf9r (М�lц1п 1W1) 18В0-61 19ВВ 18в6 1В90 t98t 1у92 19ю 19@4 1995 198В 19ч7 19эе 1999 2000 200 i--20й2 '- 2ооз 2ао4 2оо5 200G гоо7 оопеьпt 1УУ6 1-- 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 в 9 ю 1 t __ t2 __1э _ 14 15 1s 1/ 1и 1ч _ _ 2и Wood HвnreвOnp 2.161 В9 330 157 55В 74В 496 496 496 196 496 496 4чб �-- 496 �- SUS� - 704 5г16 SJ1 S95 г СhагсоеlСогнегеlоп а ___ _ _ _ 1гсв�w+в1 Ввгr1!<в 2.1l1 !У S30 157 55В 749 496 486 486 496 196 196 496 496 S03 504 S06 S32 S9S � PROJECTCQMPONENTCQST Cob 196в-91 19в7 19Вб 1969 18В0 1ВВ1 /992 1993 1иВ4 1995 1996 18и7 199В 1999 2000 2Q01 2002-- 2003 --2004 2005 2006 200/ awвWt 1УУ9 1- 7 1 2 3 4 8 6 7 В В 10 11 t2 1J 14 tb 16 V 1в 1ч 2и --- -- --- -- ------- �гвсt cosb (1ОМб01� (е) 2,147 2 16 27 92 446 565 9в0 29В FD CaN вhвгв (е). (f) 1.717 34 11В 102 350 340 456 317 9В Роа- coas эч5 зs5 зs5 эчs зч� 3ч5 зч� зч� �ч� 3ч� 3�5 еч� 1 Совb 3l6� 36 131 129 412 70.5 1041 1297 396 395 395 395 395 395 395---395 �- - 191 J9S 39S 39S 39S Моbв ---- - !е) Чо lтодгдlvо пЧг �1пр иае сыгюо out as е гоьих W 1пе аорсг, nowsva, пипгипg Ргlевв lготпоwапдгврУпlлрвввитвдbуiв1д50пОfiвв115уевга Wood 25,44ч Uдг/т3 (q Clmfse агеве еге 1nQemsrlml, wвh гоfогепсо lo Оаьа Пgиее ot б о heryeы Кот Сhпсоиl иьп/т1 1JB6,67 b 198В,69; tlи� iпсгвпwЧвl Ргодисооп Wns 1п 19в9/ВО. впд 1в ввипюд to сопипие а[ 19B3rB41sve1e е11аг 1м царсt У1е1дв (с) но иг.,.1 ыимтwп.иiььи юг..мр..г4r а 5ео па ; r•вs.lюгАид �у умг тппnд 20 пАrпв и ророгиоп to деигеп неве. SвNage ЫЧпр 1s е tempaary Чпегvапиоп, иггlоh 1ь СlоаггеЧ 150 тЭгггв по1 •ииид 1о сопвпив •11вг tlи ргоjвсL SabrOa 1вlfпр . 50 пif/1ге (q ИО еоПwООд ChercoellroдutlNxl дпbд Огl (ервп tom fe5eerch риро9еь). 1т{rOVtlo иШ1sв1 10Х (е) Соы figureв iтроПод tom 1i1a UC FUNDS F� 'п 17 696 соыs (� Snere ог FO ьtengnening сотропапl асоогдпg to соы аМоса0оп. Роь1 г coW ю1 вl 1995 h гоа 1: , w•ч� � U(, 5W .1 S6C --- S6C S6C 56_С S8C S6f 98С 98С 96Е 9ЕС S!С 96С 98С S6C 9ВС S�f G6F. S6C S6C S6£ 56£ 56С S6£ S6C S6E 46С S6C S6C S6£ S6C S6E S6C 9С SE bE СС г£ t£ ОС 6Z BZ LZ 9г SZ ►г CZ гZ lL сгог ггог �гог огог ыог е�ог иог 9<ог g�ог ыог с�ог г�ог «Ог аог еоог Воог Вгб'i 9zs'� Вгs'� 9гв'� агв'i о�['� �tr'� �вв ььt tzt в�t в99 м9 ь99 w9 sc9 ezs'� егь�� эгs'� _ егб't егs'� О�С< <<Ь'< <Ьб ь►t tzt 6�[ ь99 ►99 Ь99 ь99 s£9 В£ SE ЬЕ СС гЕ lC ОС 8г Bi LZ 9Z 9г Ьг Ег гг 4г сгог иог � г.ог огог 6� oz et ог и ог s� ог s� ог ы ог с� or z� oz <<oz о� ог eooz еоог _В SL____9'4L B SL_ __9'SL_ 9'SL__ г'L9 S'SS 0'LC Z'6Z 9"9г г'9г !'9г l'9г !'9Z �'9Z 6'1г 69 69 G9 69 69 l 9 04 Ь�Е Lz 9г 9г Уг ►Z ►'г Ь'г £'г 67.9 67.9 бг9 6Z9 6Z9 1 SS ЬЬЬ 9LZ 90г OOZ L6l ['Ll L�LI [[l LLl LLL 09 09 0_9 09 09 09 09 09 09 0'9 0'9 09 09 0'9 09 0'S ЭС SC Ь£ СС гС 1С ОС бг Вг Lг 9Z SZ YZ Ег Zг lL Сгог ггог iгог огог stoг е�ог иог s�ог stoг ыог С�ог г►ог <<ог о�ог е0ог Воог ог� __огt_ ozt огt _ огt 9ч9 [вs s9r 9Сь ьсь гм в�ь в�ь в�в е�ь csc 61 4 61 Ь 6l Ь 6l Ь 6l Ь [9С 96г bBl [£l CCl l£l Bl t Bl l Bl l Bl l Bl l �ое_ -- ioC____ �ос___�ое_ io£ io£ �ое �ос �оС �ое �ое �ое �ое toc �ос бьг 9С SC ЬС СС гЕ lC ОС 8г 92 LL BZ ►г Сг гг lz ЕгОг _-- - ггОг _ IZOZ---- ОгОг 6lOZ ВIОг LtOZ 9lOZ SIOL� t108 CtOZ ZIOZ ltOZ ОIОг 600Е BOOZ Г / J • IL Appendix 8 .UGANDA Economic Analysis 'FORESTRY REHABILITATION PROJECT Table 17: Stumpage prices SOFTWOOD STUMPAGE VALUES, US $iM3 USh/M3 Sawnwood export price (a) 234, - less transport (b) (c) (10) 208.4991 - less transport and handling (d) (15.700)1 Value ex- mill 192.799 - less production costs (e) (115,679)1 Roundwood s tump age val Lie (f) 25,4491 i HARDWOOD STUMPAGE VALUES US Vm3 I USM_n3 Sawrywood export price (a) 4321 less transport (g) (c) (31) 172,764 less transport (h) (40,000) Value ex- mill 332,764 - less production costs (e) (199,658) Roundwood stumpage value 39,932 FUELWOOD VALUES Kerosene Fuetw d_ Ush /Iffre I Ush /S M3 Kerosene price (D 7501 equivalent to: 0o 23,625 Less (1) marketing costs (1 81J transport (ISO km) (15:0 00 - less harvesting (2,000 1 Firewood stumpage value 5,4441 1 POLE VALUES I Ush /pole Rural market price 800 Less (m) - less harvesting (100 Pole stumpage value 700 A33=pltllon (c) Ratt of Exchange (1996) 929 Ush / $ (a) average world price 1992 (FAO Forestry Paper 126). adjusted by World Bank Umber price Index (1995-163.4.,1992-110.8). (b) transport Kabale-Kigall; adjusted 1986 rate. using WB G-6 &M Index. (c) Converted at 1996 exchange rate; table 0 0) (d) transport sawmill-Kabale and export handling; adjusted 1966 rate. using Ws G-6 KM Index. (e) 60% of ex-mill value; In-country estimate. J.Carvalho, 1996. M based on 30% conversion factor for hardwoods, and Improved factor of 33% for softwoods. These are lower Dian SAR figure (40%). The softwood conversion rate Is assumed to be enhanced (by 10%) over hardwoods, as a project benefit (g) transport Kampala - Mombassa; adjusted 1966 rate. using WB G-6 M\1U index (h) transport sawmill- Kampala; In-country esdmate; J.Carvalho, 1995. (D market price: Kampala. 1996. N calortflc equivalents: fuelwood = 3.600 kcallsolld kg; kerosene-8,000 kcaltirre. conversion efflciencles: flrewood-S%; kerosene=30%. wood density: 0.46 tonnes/m3: 0.60 m3/Sm3 stacked. overall factor-32 Iltres kerosene/stacked m3. 0) marketing costs at 5%.: transport costs 16,000 Ush/Sm3; harvesting 2.000 Ush/M3. I (M)pole harvesting cost- Ush 1 00/pole. UG 3TU1W f2flo/95 • М . ' . Та\�� 15�• ислиол FOR63T RHHA8IL1TAT10N PHW БСТ , А11 Сыаропеnсв ---'------��-- Ni111on Ueh -----------------------•------------------ - ---------------------------------------------� - ----- �-------�-- - ---�--- - - � 1 2 Э 1 5 Ь 7 В 9 10 11 l2 1Э 19 1у 1ь 17 1tl 1ч .и --------------'----'---------------------'----'-'-'--------'--------------------------" -�---- "------'------'--- - ---'---' - � Benвfite Iпсгетвпсвl вемЕiсв - - Э29 1105 1ее5 26z1 Э9вб lв12 зеее Э9з+ 1979 �Огг воьz atol в1э7 ai�e a:i1 �_�о а1и1 i1ч1 Совсв ' ----- � Diracc Coete 1 276 92В Z6I7 209В Э�О1 26Э4 1916 - � - - - PD совс вhare 192 672 5В2 1995 !9)4 2596 1д0� 557 - - - � - - Posc-project coete - - - - - - - �60 2916 2916 2916 2916 2916 291ь 2916 _'У1Ь 1ч1ь �ч1о 1ч1а _ч!и тосвl совсв 196 9�е г510 �ь2о �оэ2 5997 ��эе 296э г91ь 291ь 2916 291ь z9tь 291ь 2ч1ь lчlь _ч1�� _У1ь _ч1л lчlи NвL Benefite -196 -94i -1181 -)52) -2]�7 -ЭЗ76 -654 В19 972 10I8 106! 11U6 11i6 118b 1221 1!b_' 1С•1' l3fu 1fu• 1�'о ---------------------------------------------�---------------------------'----�------ ------- ------ - -- '------ - -- � 10/12/1995 1�:02 瞋勰曦卹曉 州取馴’T網月闢曉日ILXt論TtO闔屆囉O」UC實 ‘亂10開響馴開‘. 開1 1110．、開細由 才亂11才】讒4才‘才‘才71口1,jo】l彥2馬弟I毛呂、廖． 口中網ot么t. t∥c•，•州州”tol•．..．肥魚t.t唱‘0唱5魚唱唱5為今t&1 ts呂】也“,t‘口石必7Zlt，】7、t之4&7】，S乍了之5擊•了‘001 601 1．。之． C近•電－ O么勵•《寫C造O【• 勰。d、•電•h•r自 ，。．t一口目．j一t co•t•之，t‘才，t‘才，1‘才．t‘讒，.‘才，t&2,t‘才，l&1,“之，I&J,t&&,“。，l‘』，。‘?,I‘之，．。 言b亂．10馴咸•1,t‘讒，t‘之，t&Z,t‘讒，魚‘Z,t‘才，t‘才，t‘才．二‘Z，編‘之，1.2,1‘之，為．2，二．2,I&g,I& 口bt口“．•e么t．亂S唱喝ts,0跑‘之】1&t‘亂“7 17t】t77o籐•Oh才02取】、0•Z•之為鳥0、‘沸07離為0唱h塵0,＇為11‘。 tOlllll,,&．唱：•才 PгnoenC Valueu оЕ Ne[ 3Lreama at а Dtuc�unc Ra[е uf 12.U\ ВТО'Г Up 10\ Up 2U\ Up 50\ UOWN lU\ 1ЮWИ 20\ WWN 5и\ rгот -г99в.э -вьо.о 1s7в.z 769z.4 95зь 5 ьs79.7 12ьвч.9 Up l0\ -97Вб.] -279В.1 -709.9 5909.8 Ьд2� 5 �ВВ62.В -14977.9 Up 20\ -7079.9 -50]Ь 1 -2997.9 Э116 8 -91l2 6-11150 В-17265 5 Up 50\ -1Э9ЭВ.5 -11900.1 -9i63.1 -7797.9 �15976 7 1BO15 0-29129.6 WыN 10i -210.2 tB28.0 )Убб.2 9980 9, -2298 9 -9286 7 1U90l.Э WЧИ 20\ 2077.В 9116.1 6154.7 12269.0 19 6 -1998.6 -В11Э 3 DOMN 50\ В993.0 109i0.2 1701У.5 191]).1 690] В 9Вб5 5 129Э.1 ВТОТ l.АО 1 l.ц1 2 1.A0 1 С1'ОТ -299В.7 -96В2.1 -66Э1.9 -В)72.В Up 10\ -97i6.7 -6970.1 -В920 0 -10660.9 Up 20\ -7079 ♦ -9258.2 -1120i.0 -1299У.9 UP 50\ -1191У 5 -16122.Э -1В072.2 -19Y1J.1 DОЧН 10\ -210.2 -279{.0 -9){7.9 -ЬОУ4 i DOWH 20► 2077.У -106.0 -2055.i -Э796.7 DOWN 50\ В992.0 675В.2 4ВОУ.♦ 1067.9 LA[3 1 - -22Э0.Ь -91В0.4 -5921.) LAG 2 - - -1991.6 -77)2.5 i.AC• 7 - - - -177В.2 1nLernal Rв[еи of Rвturna of Nel 9[rermo BTU7' UP 1U\ Up 20{ UP 50\ 1Х)ИfН tU\ ГЮWN 20\ WWN 5U\ С1'ОТ У 606 11.]79 19.12В 22.596 5.72i 2.589 -27.97В UP 10\ 5.997 В.ЬОЬ 11.129 1В.Ь72 Э 191 -0.096 NONB Up 20\ Э.ЬВО 6 220 В 606 15.5U7 0.626 -2.709 ИОИВ UP 50\ -2.709 U.192 2.5В9 В.ЬОЬ -Ь 755 -19.861 NONB DОыИ 1ot 11 бд5 14.7�о 17.в2э z7.900 е.6о6 s.з9ь -1l.1е0 DOWN 20• 15.507 18.991 22.596 Э7.б71 12.ОЬ7 В 606 -5.022 DOwN 5о\ з7.9э9 9).612 99 У5) бе 7о7 11.Э70 25.4/1 в.ьОь ВТОТ [.АС 1 LAO 2 LА.Г. ) CfOT У.ЬОЬ 6.79� 5.621 9.797 Up 10\ 5.997 4.757 1.979 7 Э5В UP 20\ 7.ЬУ0 2.919 2.907 2.099 Up 50♦ -2.709 -2.093 -1.69В -1.ЗВ9 UОЧИ 10\ 11.ЬВ5 9.117 7.510 6 199 DОЧИ 20\ 15.507 11.дб0 9.691 Y.219 DOMN 50\ 17.9]9 25.721 19.627 16.195 l.АГ 1 - В.ЬОЬ 6.799 5 621 1J►O 2 - - В. ЬОб 6. 799 [.АО 7 - - - У.ЬОЬ Switching Values at 12.0% Appraisal Switching Percent qe Stream Value Value Change ------------------------------------------------------- BTOT 20382 22661 12% CrOT 22061 20162 -lit --------------------------------------------- ; - ------ Not Present Value at OCC 12.0% . -2494.3 Internal Rate of Return - 8.6% Coupon Equivalent Rate of Return - 10.6% IBRD 20050 32-3 UGANDA A FORESTRY REHABILITATION PROJECT s u D A N i Projecl Peri-Urbon Woodlot Areas M000 "6 Existing Operetional Sowmils bo" Tropical High Foresis Ymbe Softwood Plantoors MOTGU• Molor Roods Ro,roods RU KI 7GUM - Rivers OTiD ® D.sirnc Capitals - Contours in meters R • G E - Distr,ci Boundaries Internotonal Boundr es MOR LENDIJ U N 8 . Powch PIT- NES / /RA- o 25 50 75 100 KILOMETERS LIRA LUNGAO5 0 2'0 40 6 .0 MILES 7APAC -2·NGO (APAC A cHUN N D I/001 IND SOROTI • Foresry College,lR wPG G KUM Nakasongola H O M_A_ IKOND^p KATUGO KMUL i OL W E R 0 MTal' E ORORQ ELGON R-- -,ý TOR OR.i S,u[~ KAMUe R G-s •LUWERO YO~~~~~~~ ~~ BukEGoMBND nBk ooo AGAOOR EEA -A KAES AUENEI PALi, .- 7~~~ OT En,ebb S-THKA... 5 SAA E iEJ M~~~~~~ AA Si --- ··- MAKA5A EU T H MBA RAEb MARAMA HE MASCAAA USHRANA'EBARARAAAR BURUNR R/ ORAKAI .R NRWOHO RA KA G ENYA LE ~~~~ ~ T A N ZE TNAI RWANDA BURUNDERA 19 l A TANZANIA RWANDA 331 (.BI__ _ __ __ __ 3,0 ,"- 12'FEBRUARY 1987 IMAGING Report No: 15382 Type: ICR