Morocco - Social Priorities Program : Basic Education Project

Document of The World Bank Report No. 15074-MOR STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT KINGDOM OF MOROCCO SOCIAL PRIORITIES PROGRAM (BARNAMAJ AL AOULAOUIYAT AL IJTIMAIYA) BASIC EDUCATION PROJECT May 9, 1996 Human Resources Division Maghreb and Iran Department Middle East and North Africa Region CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit: Dirham (DH) US$1.00 = DH8.3 (as of April 1996) FISCAL YEAR January 1 to December 31 (until 1995) July 1 to June 30 (as of 1996) SCHOOL ACADEMIC YEAR September to June ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS BAJ Barnamaj Al Aoulaouaiyat Al Ijtimaiya (Social Priorities Program) CAS Country Assistance Strategy CPR Centre Pidagogique Rdgional - Regional Teaching Center CSSS Comit de Suivi de la Strategie Sociale (Social Strategy Steering Committee) DSPP Direction de la Statistique, de la Prospective et de la Programmation (Directorate of Statistics, Forecasting, and Planning) EU European Union ICB International Competitive Bidding LSMS Living Standards Measurement Survey MEAS Ministre de l'Emploi et des Affaires Sociales (Ministry of Employment and Social Affairs) MEN Ministre de l'Education Nationale (Ministry of National Education) NCB National Competitive Bidding PAS Programme d'Action Sectoriel (Sectoral Action Program) PCS Programme des Cantines Scolaires (School Canteen Program) PMIS Program Management Information System PN Promotion Nationale (National Agency for Labor Promotion) PPS Programme de Priorits Sociales (Social Priorities Program) SDS Strategie de Dveloppement Social (Social Development Strategy) SPP Social Priorities Program VAT Value added tax WFP World Food Program ZIP Zones d'Intervention Prioritaire (Priority Intervention Areas) KINGDOM OF MOROCCO SOCIAL PRIORITIES PROGRAM BASIC EDUCATION PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT Project and Loan Summary Borrower: Kingdom of Morocco Implementing The Ministry of National Education (MEN), Agencies: The Ministry of Employment and Social Affairs (MEAS) The Ministry of Interior (local communities) Poverty: Program of Targeted Interventions Amount: US$54.0 million equivalent Terms: Twenty years, including a five-year grace period, at the IBRD standard variable interest rate Commitment Fee: 0.75% on undisbursed loan balances, beginning 60 days after signing Financing Plan: (US$ million) Foreign Local Total IBRD 37.5 16.5 54.0 Government - 42.2 42.2 France 1.5 - 1.5 Total 39.0 58.7 97.7 Net Present Value: N\A (cost-effectiveness calculations) Environmental Rating: C Staff Appraisal Report: No. 15074 Map No.: IBRD 27640 Project ID No.: 5501 4 e BASIC DATA Indicator Measure Date National Wealth GNP per capita (US$) 1040 1993 Population Total population (million) 26,073 1994 Rural population (% of total) 48.6 1994 Population growth rate (%) 2.1 1982-94 Poverty Head-count Index poor (%) 13.1 1990-91 very poor (%) 7.0 1990-91 Poverty line (annual DH per person) very poor (rural) 2,040 1990-91 poor (urban) 2,730 1990-91 Education Adult literacy (% of population, age 15+) Total 45 1991 Female 32 1991 Net school enrollment (%) Primary 58 1991-92 Secondary 28 1992 Health Life expectancy at birth (years) 62 1992 Infant Mortality Rate (per thousand) 62 1995 General malnutrition (%) 15 1992 People per physician (number) 2,760 1995 Married women using contraceptives (%age) 42 1995 Employment Minimum wage for nonagricultural sectors (DH per day) 50 1995 Minimum wage for agricultural sector (DH per day) 38 1995 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. SOCIAL SECTOR BACKGROUND AND ISSUES ............................................1 A . Econom ic C ontext............................................................................... B . P overty............................................................................................ C. Education and Literacy .........................................................................2 II. GOVERNMENT STRATEGY AND BANK RESPONSE......................................5 A. Government Strategy............................................................................5 B. Rationale for Bank Involvement ...............................................................7 C. Bank Experience and Lessons Learned .......................................................7 III. TH E PR O JE C T .......................................................................................8 A. The Social Priorities Program .................................................................8 B . Project O bjectives ...............................................................................9 C . Project D escription ..............................................................................9 IV. COSTS, FINANCING AND MANAGEMENT A. Summary of Project Costs ................................................................... 13 B . F inancing ....................................................................................... 14 C . Econom ic A nalysis............................................................................ 15 D. Management and Implementation ........................................................... 17 V. PROJECT BENEFITS AND RISKS............................................................. 24 A . B enefits ......................................................................................... 24 B . R isk s............................................................................................. 25 C. Stakeholders' Participation................................................................... 25 D . Poverty C ategory .............................................................................. 26 E. Environmental Assessment ................................................................... 26 VI. AGREEMENTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................. 26 This report, prepared by Mr. Mourad Ezzine (MNIHR), is based on the findings of an appraisal mission that visited Morocco in June 1995, led by Mr. Benoit Millot (MNIHR), and comprising Messrs. Mourad Ezzine and Jean-Christophe Laederach (MN1HR). Mrs. Dung-Kim Pham (MN1HR) assisted in preparing the project costs and financing tables. Ms. Elizabeth Sherman edited project documents. Peer reviewers are Mr. Alexandre Marc (EC4MS) and Mrs. Dominique Van de Walle (PRDPE). Mr. Jean Francois Dupuy is the lawyer for Morocco, Mrs. Roslyn Hees is MNIHR Division Chief and Mr. Daniel Ritchie is MNI Department Director. ANNEXES 1. Basic Sector Information 2. SPP/BAJ: Organizational Structure 3. Provinces Selected for the Program 4. Selected Project Data 5. Summary Cost Tables 6. Economic Analysis Data 7. Procurement and Disbursement Data 8. Summary of Technical Assistance and Training 9. Project Implementation Monitoring: Key Indicators 10. Selected Information in the Project File MAP Map No. IBRD 27640 KINGDOM OF MOROCCO SOCIAL PRIORITIES PROGRAM BASIC EDUCATION PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT I. SOCIAL SECTOR BACKGROUND AND ISSUES A. Economic Context 1.01 Over the past decade, Morocco has instituted reforms designed to achieve macroeconomic stability and to liberalize the economy. Wide-reaching and comprehensive, the reforms have gradually moved Morocco away from a predominantly state-administered economy towards one that is more market-driven and outward-oriented. Yet, progress achieved on the macroeconomic front remains fragile, as demonstrated by the continued indebtedness, and the deterioration in the fiscal and external accounts which were exacerbated by the 1995 drought. 1.02 Morocco's growth rate, which averaged about 4% annually during the last decade, fell well below expectations and was too low to absorb the country's growing labor force. Private investment and domestic saving rates remain modest; labor productivity is not increasing; and international competitiveness has recently eroded. The situation has been further exacerbated by the recent drought, but prospects for 1996 are brighter. Despite significant recent progress, performance has also been disappointing in the social sectors. Morocco's indicators in health, education, literacy, and access to safe water continue to lag behind those of economically comparable countries. A fifth of the population still lives in poverty or near-poverty, urban unemployment rates have reached 20%, and rural women are still economically and socially marginalized. 1.03 Morocco's low social performance and its relative economic success are intimately related. For even with constructive political and economic reforms in place, the country cannot reach and sustain higher economic growth rates without a substantial accumulation of human capital. To achieve such a reserve, it must boost its investment in the provision of basic social services. Conversely, without sustained economic growth, it will be extremely difficult to substantially improve employment opportunities and living conditions of its population, which already stands at 26 million and is growing apace. B. Poverty 1.04 Data gathered from the 1985 Household Consumption Survey and the 1991 Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) showed that the share of Morocco's population living below the poverty line fell from 21 to 13% in those six years, while the GNP per capita rose by about 30% (and presently hovers at around US$1, 100). This performance was achieved during the period of structural adjustment. Adding the number of those whose expenditure levels are just above the poverty line to the number of those who live below it, more than 3.3 million Moroccans are still poor enough to be isolated from the mainstream economy. -2- 1.05 Urban, rural, and regional variations are also striking, and the gap dividing them is deepening. In 1991, 72% of all poor lived in rural areas as compared to 70% six years earlier. Likewise, while a quarter of the population lived in poverty in the Center-North, East, and Center- South regions, the poverty rate was below 5% in coastal areas. In rural areas, the poor are typically either seasonally underemployed wage-earners or small-scale farmers. In urban areas they are mostly self-employed people who work in the informal sector, underpaid (often temporary) wage- earners, or are unemployed. If access to basic social services is taken into account, still more differences between urban and rural areas come to light. 1.06 Along with low pay, unemployment and underemployment are major determinants of poverty. In the early 1990s, the aggregate unemployment rate in urban areas was estimated at 16 to 20%, but among the urban poor the unemployment rate reached 30%. Unemployment rates are much lower in rural areas, but these areas suffer substantial, chronic underemployment. Not surprisingly unemployment is most widespread among those with little or no education, but neither are those with a secondary education immune. Unemployment rates are higher for women overall. 1.07 The growing importance of the informal sector --although a sign of the economy's dynamism and ability to absorb excess labor supply and react to demand-- reflects an increase in the reservoir of persons prone to fall below the poverty threshold. The poverty assessment report (World Bank 1994a) found a strong link between poverty in economic terms and such social ills as low literacy, education, health, and nutrition levels and high fertility rates. That report, and other studies, also found a strong correlation between income levels and degree of access to basic social services. In light of these findings, the report strongly recommends the rehabilitation of basic social services as a necessary prerequisite for the durable alleviation of poverty. Yet, until recently the various social policies and programs were not strongly coordinated, and the link between this disparate set of sectoral actions and the macroeconomic framework was loose. There was, moreover, no visible political will to address the problem of lagging social sector performance. C. Education and Literacy 1.08 Since its independence in 1956, Morocco has accorded special priority to education with its major policy thrusts to increase capacity at all levels, standardize and arabize the curriculum, and moroccanize the teaching personnel. Substantial progress has been made in all of these areas. Enrollments have climbed steeply from the primary grades to university, and almost all of the teaching personnel, even at the higher education level, are now Moroccan. 1.09 Yet despite this headway, Morocco's education system is still plagued by major deficiencies, which are almost certainly curtailing the country's prospects for long-term economic growth. The level of illiteracy remains high; for many citizens --especially girls-- primary education (referred to as the "Enseignement Fondamental ler cycle" or "lower basic education") is of low quality and insufficient coverage despite substantial educational reforms in the mid-1980s; resources are allocated inefficiently, favoring secondary schools (corresponding to the "upper basic" and the secondary education levels) to the detriment of primary education, and the urban elite to the detriment of rural and disadvantaged groups (see Annex 1). Low literacy level 1.10 Between the 1971 census and the 1991 household Living Standard Measurement Survey (LSMS), the overall illiteracy rate in Morocco dropped from 75 to 55%. This is substantial progress, yet more than half of the population over the age of nine is still illiterate --double the rate - 3 - characteristic of equivalent lower-middle-income countries. In addition, the pace of the progress seems to have reached a plateau: according to the first results of the last census, the illiteracy rate for the population aged 10 and over was still around 55% in 1994. Disparities among different societal groups within Morocco are even more striking: 70% of women are illiterate as compared to 44% of men, and nearly 77% of the rural population is illiterate as compared to 38% of urban dwellers. When both gender and locale are considered, the gap is still wider: 90% of rural women are illiterate as compared to less than 26% of urban men. As in other countries, in Morocco illiteracy is closely associated with such poverty indicators as high morbidity rates, poor nutrition, and low income levels. But in Morocco, the urban-rural gap continues to widen with every generation and the male-female gap has not narrowed appreciably since independence. 1.11 The Government has carried out several large-scale literacy campaigns over the last twenty years. The most recent one, from 1990 to 1992, reached more than 600,000 people. Yet these efforts were not well-targeted, and their impact has been small. The overall decrease in illiteracy in Morocco is more a reflection of higher child enrollments than of adult literacy campaigns. Parental illiteracy continues to hinder the education of children, particularly girls in the rural areas, whose chances of learning to read and write have been shown to depend heavily on mothers' level of education. Lagging primary enrollments 1.12 In 1993-94, 4 million children were enrolled in the six grades of lower basic (ages seven to twelve), upper basic (ages thirteen to fifteen) and secondary (ages sixteen to eighteen) education system. Including children in modern preschools and Koranic schools, the overall enrollment was just 41 % from ages four to twenty-three. While that figure is lower than the 51 % overall enrollment rate averaged by the countries in the reference group, Morocco's 69% primary enrollment rate lags even more shockingly behind the 87% averaged by the reference group. 1.13 For largely unknown reasons, primary enrollments in Morocco dropped sharply from 1982 to 1984, falling 30.5% in just two years, then returned to the previous levels and stagnated there until 1989. Since the 1990 education campaigns undertaken by the Government, primary enrollment rates have risen rapidly. In 1993 new admissions were 24% higher than those in 1982, and from 1980 to 1993, enrollment also increased 3.7% in upper basic grades and 4% in secondary schools. 1.14 Yet, the net enrollment rate of rural children in primary education is still well below that of their urban counterparts (58% versus 82% in 1994 ), and the educational prospects of Morocco's rural girls is even dimmer, with a net primary enrollment rate of 34% (vs. 85% for urban boys). Female enrollments are far more sensitive than male enrollments to both school-related and nonschool-related variables (such as family size and composition, domestic chores, and economic status). These demand-side factors must therefore be dealt with if Morocco is to improve its rural girls' prospects for getting an education. 1.15 Recent studies following quite different approaches and data sources have uncovered a number of critical determinants of girl's school participation (MEN 1993, World Bank 1995a, World Bank 1994b and World Bank 1993). It is well-known that girls' schooling generates greater opportunity costs than boys' and that their enrollment and retention at school is related to the existence of such school amenities as latrines, drinkable water, and canteens. Canteens in Morocco are particularly associated with significantly higher school attendance, and in 1993-94, 960,000 children benefited from the national School Canteen Program, 88% of which was financed by the World Food Program and the rest by the Ministere de l'Education Nationale (Ministry of -4- National Education, MEN). Urgent food needs in other countries, however, have obliged the World Food Program to taper off its aid to Morocco, which will continue to receive assistance on a declining basis for the next two or three years contingent upon the submission of a substitution plan. 1.16 Koranic preschools have great potential for raising primary enrollment rates overall. Pilot projects aimed at promoting Koranic preschools, implemented by the MEN with financial support from the UNICEF and specialized NGOs, have yielded encouraging results--particularly in terms of modernizing this traditional institution and improving outcomes. While the tradition of Koranic preschools is not as well-implanted in rural as in urban areas, they are still better accepted by some parents than are modern schools and therefore represent a potential vehicle for promoting schooling and improving achievement in basic education. Low quality and internal efficiency 1.17 Reliable data regarding schools' achievements are not yet available, although various evaluations are under way. Assessments of learning achievement that have been realized suggest that there has been a decline in learning performance in basic subjects overall and weak achievement in higher-order skills, with tremendous disparities between urban and rural areas. The low quality of instructional materials in most schools reflects the high level of expenditure on personnel (97% of the basic education operating budget), which drains funding from all other inputs. A recent survey of rural schools showed that in the poorest provinces, only half the teachers had the required teachers' guides. Math tests show that urban children outperform their rural counterparts, that completion rates are lower for rural children than for urban ones, and that under-investment in education is more pronounced in rural than in urban areas. They also suggest that boys do better than girls, but that additional schooling can significantly improve girls' performances (World Bank 1994b). 1.18 Although schools' internal efficiency has improved as a result of the mid-1980s education reforms, dropout rates are still an area of concern. In the past, MEN used a system of nucleus (six- grade) and satellite (two- or four-grade) schools. When a rural student reached the last grade of a satellite school, he or she was usually obliged to walk to a more remote nucleus school serving several satellites. Many girls, especially, failed to make the transition, which proved to be a strong incentive for dropping out. Inefficient resource use 1.19 Most education funding comes from the State (84% of the total). The rest is provided by families (11 %), local governments (3%) and business (2%). In 1992 the central Government allocated 28% of its budget to the Ministry of National Education and 35% to education and training in general, amounting to 7.3% of GDP. But although these percentages are markedly higher than the 17% for education (equal to 6.6% of GDP), averaged by the reference group, indicators suggest that Morocco's education system gets worse results, especially with regard to literacy and basic education. In addition, only expenditures for basic education represent a social transfer to the poor, who out-number the middle class and wealthy at that level but are under-represented in the upper educational grades. Combined with the steep increase in unit costs (US$200 at the lower basic level, US$490 at the upper level, and US$820 at the secondary level in 1992), skewing support toward the upper levels has the effect of a large-scale transfer of public funding to the least needy (World Bank 1994c). -5- 1.20 A break-down of operational expenditures by level of education shows that lower basic education's relative share is low (35% as against 43% in the reference group) while that for upper basic grades and secondary education is high (46% as against 23%). Expenditures on higher education are slightly below the reference group average. A functional analysis of public spending for education, moreover, reveals the burden placed by the teaching and nonteaching staff wage bill, which makes up 97% of the total operating budget for lower basic education and 95% of the budget for upper-basic and secondary schooling (World Bank 1994d). 1.21 Morocco's excessive teaching staff wage bill derives more from an unrealistic staffing policy, than from generous compensation practices--although primary school teachers' salaries were a multiple of 4.8 per capita GDP in 1992, as compared to a multiple of 2.5 for Asian countries. In 1993-94 the student:teacher ratio was as low as 28:1 for lower basic, 18:1 for upper basic, and 13:1 for secondary schools, having steadily declined from 1980-81 to 1990-91. The ranks of certain categories of nonteaching personnel have also become swollen, so that the lower basic education student: support-staff ratio fell from some 290:1 in 1989-90 to 180:1 in 1993-94. At the upper-basic level, 13% of teachers (some nine people per school) and at the secondary level, 15% of teachers (eleven people per school) are assigned to administrative or financial duties. The reasons for this evolution have been clearly identified by the MEN and include the low demographic density in rural areas, the artificial creation of jobs in schools during the 1980s to mitigate the impact of unemployment among university graduates, the fact that teacher training- school graduates far outnumber the actual demand for teachers, and the lack of transparency in personnel assignment and management. At the same time, the staffing of rural schools remains problematic, particularly in small villages where housing is difficult to find. Long commuting time for teachers results in absenteeism, loss of efficiency, and high turnover. II. GOVERNMENT STRATEGY AND BANK RESPONSE A. Government Strategy 2.01 For a long time in Morocco, spending to promote human capital was not considered an investment that would ultimately lead to greater and more sustainable economic growth, and instead, economic growth was perceived as the only engine of social progress. Therefore, social concerns were not a top Government priority and, despite indisputable sectoral improvement during the 1980s and 1990s, there was no comprehensive, long-term plan for the social welfare of the country. 2.02 But following an era of thorough macroeconomic adjustment and worrisome decline in social conditions throughout the Kingdom, the Government has started to focus on social issues in a more concerted manner. In 1993 it issued the Social Development Strategy (Stratigie de Developpement Social pour la Dicennie 1990, SDS), which sets forth clear directives aimed at reversing past trends and establishing the framework for a sound social policy. Based on the 1991 Living Standards Measurement Survey, the Government strategy made extending basic social services to the poor and increasing their participation in economically productive activities its highest social goals. Such extended coverage would include access to safe water, sewage facilities, health care, family planning services, nutrition, primary education, literacy programs, and subsidized public housing. But recognizing prevailing budgetary constraints, the strategy stresses the inter- and intra-reallocation of resources and introduction of cost-recovery mechanisms. It also advocates action to promote employment and bolster social protection. Finally, the SDS emphasizes -6- that a strong and appropriate administrative vehicle and reliable statistical monitoring system are required for the implementation of its recommendations. 2.03 The Government gave the first version of the Strat9gie de Dgveloppement Social pour la Dicennie 1990 to the Bank in the context of the second adjustment program. Following the appraisal of the Social Priorities Program, the strategy was updated, formally re-endorsed by the new Government, and officially conveyed to the Bank [para. 6.01a]. Its internalization throughout the relevant agencies is now underway. Specific sectoral action plans are being developed for the education and health sectors as part of the preparation of the Social Priorities Program. The creation of the Ministry of Population, which has the responsibilities of a ministry of planning, and should be able to coordinate actions throughout the social sectors within a unifying framework, is another signal that the Government is taking social concerns seriously and is adapting its institutions accordingly. Finally, the King's recent request to the Bank to frame a long-term vision statement for the education sector, his October 1995 address to the Parliament of Morocco following reception of the Bank's statement (World Bank 1995b), and his decision to disseminate it widely, all point to the fact that concerns for education now emanate from the highest levels of the power hierarchy. Recent initiatives taken and/or being prepared by the two ministers in charge of education to rationalize their respective subsectors are encouraging too. 2.04 The Government is particularly concerned that even high levels of public spending have done little to close the education gap separating Morocco from the reference group of countries. Since 1991, therefore, the Government has conducted several studies, collecting the data needed to formulate a catch-up strategy for targeting female enrollment in order to boost the admission rate from its present 34% in rural areas to 55% by 2000-01. The approach rests on three pillars: (a) Targeting resources. The problem of rural school enrollments must be addressed within the context of a broader strategy for wiping out poverty and increasing economic and social development in rural areas. The Government is therefore starting to target the most disadvantaged groups and geographical regions for the provision of basic social services. (b) Improving efficiency and quality. The strategy for adapting the education system to the needs of sparsely populated rural areas is to bring schools closer to the students, to reorganize schools wherever possible on the model of a multigrade system, to make available the most effective school inputs, and to offer more programs covering the full six primary grades. (c) Addressing nonschool factors. The strategy to rectify nonschool factors that undermine demand for schooling is to improve the effectiveness of literacy programs, step up information and awareness-raising campaigns for parents, and re-focus the public works program to create supplementary income in targeted regions. 2.05 The MEN has developed a Plan d'Action Sectoriel (PAS, Sector Action Program)--an operational program for basic and secondary education from 1995 to 2000 that seeks to correct distortions in the allocation and management of education resources. Under this plan, Morocco has already decentralized school construction to local communities. It now hopes to generate savings by improving efficiency, by balancing the resources allocated to basic and secondary education to reflect more accurately the nation's education priorities. What options would be offered to students once they reached the end of basic education remains to be defined, for access to the public system would necessarily remain restricted. Policy discussions under way in the Moroccan Parliament have touched on the possibility of encouraging the development of private post-basic education (which, at -7- present, accounts for barely 8% of the total) and of introducing cost-recovery measures into the public system from secondary school on. In March 1995 the Ministry of National Education was split into two in an effort to rationalize the sector's administrative structure. Higher education is now under the responsibility of a separate ministry, while responsibility for primary and secondary education remains with the MEN. B. Rationale for Bank Involvement 2.06 The severe state of degradation of Morocco's social sectors underscores the urgent need for intensive, durable action. Bank support for such action is called for both by the present climate of support in the Government and by the Bank's own Country Assistance Strategy (CAS), currently under preparation, which puts investing in people as its first priority. Bank support for the social sector would also accord with its parallel efforts to strengthen macroeconomic performance and encourage growth through private investment. Other donors have viewed the goals of the Strat6gie de Diveloppement Social pour la D9cennie 1990 (based on the Living Standards Measurement Survey and confirmed by the World Bank poverty assessment) as a rallying point, and support for SDS policies is fully in line with the Bank's strategy of poverty alleviation and Morocco's overall plan to develop its human resources. Since the Bank has already financed several projects in Morocco's social sectors--especially in health and education--the proposed project would be an extension of earlier Bank involvement. The Country Economic Memorandum (World Bank 1995c) provides a solid body of evidence that programs whose aim is to improve Morocco's human capital base and to increase labor efficiency and productivity warrant reinforcement of present Bank support. Finally, a recent study of the region's present situation and long-term prospects (World Bank 1995d) shows that Morocco, along with its neighbors, is experiencing high unemployment and now feels an especially urgent need for bold programs aiming for both economic growth and poverty alleviation. The Bank's role in promoting the Government's social strategy and marshaling international and bilateral support for social programs will be critical if Morocco is to succeed in the fight it is waging against poverty, both in terms of equity and of economic growth. 2.07 The Ministry of Education's Sector Action Plan, which needs to be adjusted in light of the 1996-2000 Economic and Social Development Plan, addresses all of the important issues facing the education sector (including access, retention, equity, quality, efficiency, and financing). The plan takes into account the conclusions of various recent studies, the Bank's general views on the sector, and the vision statement on education the World Bank recently addressed to the King (World Bank 1995b). In line with the SDS, it advocates using an integrated package of interventions to reach target areas and populations. By opening up basic education facilities, making school attendance less expensive and easier for poor families, and linking literacy programs to productive employment promotion activities, the proposed project would contribute greatly to the overall alleviation of poverty, a primary Bank goal. The determination of the Government to act on rectifying both the school and nonschool factors that are presently undermining the demand for primary education in rural areas and its resolve to systematize cost-effective approaches to increase enrollments in these areas, deserve clear encouragement from the Bank, which has been recommending such measures for a long time. C. Bank Experience and Lessons Learned 2.08 In the past, the Bank has supported several operations in Morocco's social sectors, and three such projects are currently being implemented (two in education and one in health: the Health Sector Investment Project, Loan 3171-MOR). The main general lessons to be drawn from these operations are as follows: (a) Reforms in the social sectors should not be overly ambitious because -8- of their immense impact on large groups and the political risks attached to them. (b) A good management information system and simple and transparent management, procurement, and disbursement procedures must be in place for all Bank-financed activities. Such measures are also meant to offset cumbersome local financing circuits, which tend to delay execution and slow down disbursements, especially for decentralized project activities. A study is currently being conducted by the Government to identify precisely the bottlenecks and the sources of delays. (c) To ensure full acceptance of the project, it is critical to seek the early involvement of all constituents--in particular, employees of line ministries at the provincial and local level who will play a crucial role during project implementation. It is equally important to involve other Government constituencies (such as the Ministry of Finance) and other donors early enough in the process to guarantee successful future collaboration. (d) Finally, realistic budgetary envelopes have to be projected (and committed) to ensure the sustainability of sectoral programs and actions. Lessons learned in the education sector 2.09 Since 1963, the Bank has financed eight projects (two credits and six loans) in the education sector, including a sector adjustment project, the Education Sector Reform Program (Loan 2664-MOR, US$150 million, 1986-88), and two projects currently being implemented: the Rural Primary Education Project (Loan 3026-MOR, US$83 million, 1989-96) and the Rural Basic Education Development Project (Loan 3295-MOR, US$145 million, 1991-97). The PPAR (Report No. 12558) for the sector adjustment project identifies "insufficient understanding of the determinants of demand for education in rural areas" as a major source of failure of operations in the education sector. The ongoing projects confirm that if demand factors are not addressed, it is unlikely that school attendance in rural areas will substantially increase. They also demonstrate that project execution can be substantially improved if (i) project implementation units are well staffed and well integrated in the national administrative structure, (ii) accountability of the various actors -- Education, Finances and Interior-- is better defined and the responsibility of operations is left to the MEN, and (iii) the MEN sub-contracts the management of technical assistance to institutions --such as UN agencies--. Finally, these projects, together with former operations, show that (i) the problems faced at each level of education are complex and specific to each sub-sector, and should not be lumped together in a single project, and (ii) reforms aiming to introduce more efficiency and to alter the pattern of resource allocation in the education sector require time. Further to such a long exposure to Bank procedures, seasoned implementation teams are in place within the MEN. III. THE PROJECT A. The Social Priorities Program 3.01 The proposed project is part of the Social Priorities Program I (SPP I; Barnamaj al- Aoualaouiyat al-Ijtimaiya, or BAJ I, in Arabic; Programme Prioritis Sociales I, or PPS I, in French), initiated to assist the Government in the implementation of its strategy to increase the poor's access to basic social services, enhance basic social protection, and create new opportunities for the under- and unemployed to participate in economically productive activities. The program would also bolster Government awareness of poverty-related and social issues and catalyze efforts to rehabilitate Morocco's social sectors. While the SPP would entail a series of consecutive programs following one another at a rapid pace, SPP/BAJ I was conceived as a set of three complementary -- but independent-- projects to be implemented simultaneously (Annex 2). All three share the same -9- broad objectives, were developed within the same framework, and would be implemented independently within the same geographical area. 3.02 By using a multisectoral approach-- which is expected to yield more significant and durable results than serial, strictly sectoral projects-- this tripartite program would help to guarantee flexibility in execution and should therefore be a more efficient way to channel energies and resources. The SPP/BAJ would target rural areas in Morocco's thirteen poorest and least urbanized provinces, where 27% of the total population, or 7.1 million people, currently live (provinces and selection criteria are listed in Annex 3). By involving provincial authorities in project monitoring, moreover, the SPP/BAJ should achieve the integration needed to reinforce its impact. The objectives of the three projects would be: (a) to increase the quality and quantity of basic education while at the same time making the education system more efficient and equitable; (b) to improve access to basic health services and improve their quality while bolstering performance and managerial capacities within the health care system; (c) to enhance basic rural infrastructure through labor-intensive techniques; and (d) to establish a permanent apparatus for data collection and analysis that would strengthen the government's ability to galvanize support for SDS activities and monitor their impact. B. Project Objectives 3.03 The proposed education project would strengthen human capital by making education and literacy available to populations that have hitherto been deprived of them. In particular, it would build on earlier Bank assistance extended for the purpose of increasing access to and improving the quality of primary education. The objective of this project is to contribute to the Government's efforts to boost its educational system in both qualitative and quantitative terms and to make its performance correspond more closely to that in economically comparable countries. 3.04 Unlike earlier projects, however, this project would (a) target the poorest population in the country; (b) aim to have an impact on both the supply of and demand for education; and (c) affect institutions both upstream (Koranic preschools) and downstream (literacy education for adults) of the formal education system. The proposed project would be concentrated in specific communities located in the thirteen selected provinces. These "priority intervention areas" (Zones d'Intervention Prioritaire, ZIP) have been selected on the basis of a group of indicators showing low overall demand and low female enrollment rates (Annex 4). Several donors have expressed an interest in supporting the Government's educational strategy. C. Project Description 3.05 The proposed project would be implemented over a five-year period plus one year to complete disbursemnets, at a total cost of US$97.7 million equivalent and would consist of five components: (a) Improving access to and retention rates in remote rural areas by expanding the supply of available basic schooling. (b) Reducing the gap between the school participation rates of boys and girls. (c) Improving education quality. (d) Improving the performance of Government literacy programs. - 10 - (e) Providing technical support to the MEN to operationalize and implement its Sector Action Plan, which aims to reallocate resources to priority programs and improve budgetary efficiency. Improving access to and retention in basic education 3.06 The first project component (US$52.8 million) would expand the supply of basic education by improving school accessibility and coverage. To improve accessibility, the MEN would establish schools in every rural community that had more than 200 inhabitants and was not already served by a school "reasonably close by." Because of the variety of climates, terrain and populations that characterize the thirteen selected provinces, the decision about which schools were "reasonably close" would be entrusted to the provincial planning units. To the extent possible, the MEN would make the newly built schools multigrade so that schools close to rural communities would offer the full basic education course. 3.07 The component designed to increase access and retention rates would include: (a) Building and equipping about 360 multigrade schools with a maximum of two classrooms in communities with over 200 inhabitants that do not already have a full primary school nearby. (b) Completing the infrastructure by building additional class-rooms for approximately 650 satellite schools, so that they can offer full primary education and multigrade courses. (c) Developing a new methodology and teaching materials for multigrade teaching and organizing preservice and inservice training for about 5,000 teachers assigned to multigrade classes and for all new teachers. The French Government has already decided to increase the number of its technical assistants to foster multigrade teaching in the target provinces, and is expected to fund the development part of this element [para. 6.03b(i)]. Proof of this parallel financing was given at negotiations. (d) Supporting the Government effort to strengthen the School Canteen Program to the targeted areas by equipping new canteens and helping the Government to meet the canteen program's operating costs during the period of disengagement of the World Food Program (WFP) and possibly to the end of the project. Support would include food requirements for a limited number of pupils in the provinces from where the WFP will be withdrawing. Priority would be given to schools in communities with the lowest female enrollment rates. A plan committing the Government to fund the School Canteen Program fully would be discussed during the mid-term evaluation review (to be held before June 30, 1999) and would be a condition for the continuation of Bank support for the Canteen Program to the end of the project [para. 6.03d(i)]. (e) Improving facilities for approximately 100 preschools by distributing modest furnishings and teaching materials to selected Koranic pre-schools and setting up a program for initial and continuing pedagogical and professional training for Koranic school teachers. (f) Carrying out a series of studies and small scale experiments of techniques for imparting basic skills to children aged ten to sixteen who never attended primary school. - 11 - Reducing the ender gap 3.08 By addressing the various demand factors presently affecting girls' enrollments, the second project component (US$17.4 million) would reinforce the effects of the first one. All elements contributing to increased access and lower dropout rates would also promote greater female participation and would therefore help to reduce the education gap between boys and girls. This component, however, would specifically target girls by reducing the cost of education to families, upgrading schools, ensuring that whenever possible newly-built schools had access to drinkable water and latrines, and fostering community involvement in operating schools. The component would include the following elements: (a) Distributing textbooks and school supplies free of charge to underprivileged children, with priority given to girls. (b) Installing about 300 latrines and 150 wells in schools characterized by low female enrollments. (c) Rehabilitation of school facilities aiming at increasing girls' attendance. (d) Organizing two awareness campaigns for each targeted community over the project period to promote schooling for girls in rural areas. The campaigns would target families and would be organized with the help of local elected officials and central administration representatives. Improving education quality 3.09 The project's third component (US$21.6 million) would provide a standard set of instructional materials to each school, test and organize remedial courses for underachievers, set up an "innovation fund" to promote school-based projects, and provide housing for teachers in remote areas (which would complement efforts to devise an improved methodology for multigrade teaching). The component would include the following: (a) Providing furnishings and a minimum set of instructional materials to all schools that presently lack them. (b) Distributing Teachers' Guides to all teachers assigned to rural schools. (c) Making shared pedagogical resources available to students and teachers (mobile libraries). (d) Testing and organizing remedial courses for underachieving pupils. (e) Equipping school inspectorates with vehicles suitable for the terrain, so that they can visit more schools in their catchment area more often. (f) Organizing short management training courses for school directors to help them run their schools more effectively. (g) Promoting innovation at the school level. Using agreed guidelines and criteria for project identification, presentation and selection, a provincial board would choose a small number of projects whose aim is to raise the quality of education, strengthen professional relations - 12 - among school teachers, promote school life, and integrate it into the community. Schools would be grouped in categories according to indicators of quality, and projects from the more deprived schools would be selected. Final agreement on funding mechanisms (selection criteria, financial responsibilities, etc.) was reached during negotiations [para. 6.03a(i)]. Each year a competition would be organized to grant prizes to the most successful projects. (h) Building about 180 houses to board teachers in remote areas, to increase the likelihood that they would stay in the schools they are assigned to. Literacy programs 3.10 The proposed project's fourth component (US$3.7 million) would be based on the observation that parents with higher levels of literacy are more willing to send their children to school. Mothers' level of literacy, in fact, is one of the factors most strongly associated with girls' access to primary education. In order to put into practice the lessons learned from earlier literacy campaigns, the Ministry of Employment and Social Affairs (MEAS) designed a pilot program to test a new type of literacy campaign, which would strengthen people's motivation to become literate by seeking a field of application for the newly acquired knowledge from the outset. Given the novelty of this approach and the emphasis on quality, the pilot campaign would be limited to 2,500 people a year --half of them women-- in the six provinces chosen for targeting under the pilot project. The component would include the following: (a) Providing technical assistance for the development of strategies to follow up on gains made during literacy campaigns. One of the pilot activities in this area would be to link literacy programs to the public works activities supported by the third SPP/BAJ project (Employment Promotion and Poverty Monitoring) and implemented by the Promotion Nationale, a labor intensive public works agency. (b) Designing appropriate training support (including materials relevant to women), and retraining instructors. Capacity building 3.11 The fifth project component (US$1.6 million) would provide the technical assistance, training, and equipment necessary for the MEN to implement, monitor, and adjust its Sectoral Action Plan (PAS). Under this plan, the Government would shift budgetary resources to basic education to promote wider coverage and better quality, particularly in rural areas, and would preserve a core program of expenditures for basic education (Annex 4, table 3). The plan would also address the problem of inefficiencies in resource allocation and use, especially with regard to secondary staff appointments. The content of the PAS has already been discussed and deemed satisfactory by the Bank. It was transmitted officially to the Bank before negotiations [para. 6.02a]. 3.12 The most important elements of the capacity building component are the following: (a) Development of a public expenditure program for the primary and secondary education sectors in agreement with the Ministries of Finance and Population, and training personnel in the MEN's Directorate of Statistics, Forecasting, and Planning (DSPP) in techniques related to such a program's development. The program would single out core (wage and non-wage) expenditures for primary education. It would be prepared and updated each year - 13 - and transmitted to the Bank for discussion by July 31 of each year, beginning 1997 [para. 6.03b(ii)]. (b) Completion of a series of assessments of existing personnel management procedures (including appointments, transfers, and the placement of newly appointed personnel), and provision of computerized monitoring and evaluation tools to the planning divisions of the provincial planning offices of the MEN . (d6l9gations) by December 31, 1997. [para. 6.03a(ii)]. (c) Development of a prospective school mapping methods to take into account such contextual variables as family situation and community characteristics and coordinating school expansion with other investment programs. Project Management 3.13 The last component (US$0.7 million) would support project management and monitoring activities. IV. COSTS, FINANCING, AND MANAGEMENT A. Summary of Project Costs 4.01 Total costs of the three projects which, together, constitute the SPP/BAJ, are estimated at US$266 million equivalent. Total costs of the proposed first project are estimated at US$97.7 million equivalent, including US$18.0 million for contingencies (18%) and US$13.9 million for taxes (14%). The foreign exchange component is equivalent to US$39.0 million (47% of total project costs excluding taxes). A summary of project costs appears in Table 4. 1. (See also Annex 5.) 4.02 Contingency allowances. Project costs include a contingency allowance --for unforeseen physical variations-- equal to US$7.6 million (9% of total project cost excluding taxes). Price contingencies between negotiations and project completion are estimated at US$10.4 million (12% of total project costs excluding taxes). The following annual rates have been applied: 5% per year for local costs, 2.6% per year for foreign costs. Table 4.1. Project cost summary by component Cost (DH Million) (US$ Million) Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Component Access and retention 182.6 175.8 358.4 22.0 21.2 43.2 Red. gender gap 79.1 37.5 116.6 9.5 4.5 14.1 Quality 100.8 44.9 145.7 12.1 5.4 17.6 Literacy 15.8 8.5 24.3 1.9 1.0 2.9 Capacity building 4.9 6.5 11.4 0.6 0.8 1.4 Management 2.3 2.5 4.8 0.3 0.3 0.6 Total base cost 385.5 275.6 661.1 46.4 33.2 79.7 Physical 37.5 25.2 62.8 4.5 3.0 7.6 Price 64.1 22.6 86.7 7.7 2.7 10.4 TOTAL PROJECT COSTS' 487.2 323.4 810.6 58.7 39.0 97.7 * Numbers rounded off to nearest decimal may not add up to totals shown. - 14 - 4.03 Foreign exchange component. The foreign exchange component is estimated as follows: construction: 25%; pedagogical material: 35%; furniture: 25%; equipment, vehicles, computers: 70%; foreign specialists and training abroad: 90%; locally recruited specialists, local training, local seminars: 10%. The resulting foreign exchange component is estimated at US$39.0 million, representing 47% of total project costs, excluding taxes. 4.04 Customs duties and taxes. Directly imported goods and goods procured locally average an import duty and taxes of 20%. Indirect taxes on civil works are estimated at 15%. B. Financing 4.05 The financing of the project would consist of (a) a Bank loan of US$54.0 million equivalent (64% of total project costs excluding taxes); (b) parallel cofinancing equivalent to US$1.5 million (FF 7.0 million) from France, and representing 1.8% of total project costs excluding taxes; and (c) a Government contribution of US$28.3 million equivalent, plus US$13.9 million in taxes. (See Table 4.2 and Annex 5). The loan would cover 96% of the foreign exchange costs of the project, the remaining 4% would be covered by French Bilateral Cooperation. In addition the loan would cover 33% of the local costs (net of taxes). The Government would finance the balance of local costs, taxes, and all operating costs associated with the implementation, administration, and supervision of the project--including staff salaries and architectural and engineering services. During negotiations, the Government provided assurances be that all necessary measures would be taken to ensure that adequate and timely financial arrangements were in place at all times for the continued and successful operation of the project. This would include providing counterpart funds and establishing an individual budget line for the project for the duration of the project, starting with the fiscal year 96/97 [para. 6.03b(iii)]. In addition, retroactive financing up to 10% of the loan amount was agreed upon during negotiations [para. 6.03b(iv)]. Table 4.2. Project Financing Plan (US$ million) Ministry of Local % of total project Funding Ministry of Employment and Communities costs excluding taxes Source Education Social Affairs (1) Total IBRD 33.0 2.0 19.0 54.0 64 France 1.5 - - 1.5 2 Government 15.4 0.8 12.1 28.3 34 taxes 7.5 0.3 6.1 13.9 - Total 57.4 3.1 37.2 97.7 (1)This refers to the constrmction of educational facilities, to be implemented by communities, and financed by the Ministry of Interior. 4.06 It is expected that the component designed to improve school access and retention rates (US$52.8 million) would receive parallel cofinancing from France of US$1.5 million equivalent. Although of a relatively small monetary value, French participation is of great importance in the design of the component, and would bring to the project considerable experience with multigrade schooling. Proof of French commitment to cofinance was received at negotiations [para. 6.03b(i)]. - 15 - Several other agencies --especially UNDP, UNICEF, USAID-- and the European Union (EU) have also shown interest in the SPP/BAJ in general, and in the education project in particular. While differing Moroccan Government, EU and Bank project cycles has made it impossible to finalize any formal cofinancing arrangement with the EU before negotiations, the common interest in improving primary education in Morocco's rural areas makes it highly likely that the proposed project would benefit from future support from the European Union. C. Economic Analysis The mix of educational inputs 4.07 If evenly distributed over a six-year period, the total annual cost of the project would average US$16 million, which represents roughly 3% of the total MEN current expenditures allocated to basic education, 3 % of the total recurrent MEN budget, and 13% of today's total investment MEN budget. As the benefits of investing in basic education are only lightly linked to labor market outcomes and are at the same time heavily webbed with externalities, using wages to assess the benefits of this investment would not be meaningful, and consequently, a cost-benefit analysis would not shed much light on the economic justification of the project. Indeed, evidence from various countries suggests that --especially for girls in rural areas-- the social benefits alone offset the costs of basic education (World Bank 1992). Therefore, the combination of educational inputs included in the proposed project was selected on the grounds that (i) it promotes the project's goal of increasing access and retention rates, particularly for girls, while (ii) also improving the quality of primary education, and (iii) being cost-effective (see Annex 6). 4.08 Evidence regarding the determinants of demand for primary education was drawn from several surveys including the 1990-91 LSMS, a 1992 survey of rural parents, and a participatory appraisal of women's needs, concerns, and views conducted in 1994. The design of the project was also influenced by the forecasts presented in the Education PAS, in particular the simulation of alternative scenarios for achieving universal primary education and their budgetary implications. These various studies and analyses showed that a significant increase in primary school enrollments would not be financially feasible unless the MEN adopted extensive use of the multigrade classroom model. International experience has shown that this model is not only more cost-effective than the traditional, separate-grade model used in Moroccan satellite schools, but that it can also improve learning outcomes, as long as adequate teaching methods and materials are available. In the Moroccan case a properly organized multigrade teaching system in rural areas --while initially increasing teaching kit and training needs-- would eventually lead to savings, both in school construction and teaching requirements. Annual savings that could be generated from the adoption of multigrade classrooms are estimated to be in the order of US$6 million. 4.09 On the demand side, studies have failed to confirm certain factors conventionally thought to affect girls' schooling rates, such as single-sex schools and female teachers. Factors that did prove significant were ranked for their effect on primary school access and retention rates, gender gap- reduction, education quality, and cost-effectiveness. Since each factor generally has a combined and cumulative effect on several objectives, factors were artificially separated out for the purpose of analysis. The design of the project also takes into account the complementarity of its interventions with those of its sister projects within the SPP/BAJ --a feature not fully captured by cost- effectiveness analysis. For instance, the distribution of free textbooks to girls would miss its target if action were not also taken to bring schools closer to home, which implies the need for more schools (to be built under the proposed education SPP project) and for better and safer feeder roads to walk to the school (to be supplied under the employment promotion SPP project). To quantify the many cross-effects of these projects would require careful monitoring during project - 16 - implementation, which would be facilitated by the sector and project indicators MEN is required to track throughout the life of the project. 4.10 Although they constitute together a complete and cohesive package, all single activities proposed under the project are cost-effective by international standards. Even a simple computation of direct effects (which would clearly underestimate the overall impact of the package) provides a solid justification for the proposed education project (Annex 6, Table 3). Most of the individual actions (such as the building of latrines) were analyzed in terms of simple presence versus absence. Other factors were analyzed in terms of relative cost and potential benefit. Awareness campaigns for example cost less than US$3 per new "client"-- lower than any other type of intervention. School canteens provide an example of an effective intervention. They could be replaced by targeted food distribution to poor families, or by simple income transfers, for instance; however, unlike these alternative solutions, the benefits of a school canteen program accrue directly to the target population--school children. The children, moreover, improve their school attendance rate along with their caloric intake--a benefit not guaranteed under any direct transfer scheme, no matter how well targeted. Recurrent costs 4.11 Incremental recurrent costs associated with the proposed project were estimated on the basis of projections included in the Education PAS (Annex 6). Two types of incremental costs were assessed: costs accruing during the execution of the project and costs likely to accrue after the project ends. The single most important item of the first group is the additional wage bill. Computed by comparing teaching and nonteaching staff requirements in the base scenario (status quo) and in the project scenario (high case), this additional wage bill would amount to about US$32 million annually by the end of the project. Other additional costs to be borne during the project's life include maintenance for facilities, equipment, and cars, which would total US$0.9 million annually. The main incremental costs following the project's completion would come from the Government's commitment to assume the total cost of the school canteen program and the complete withdrawal of the World Food Program (US$21.8 million). Other costs likely to need a budget allocation after project's completion (textbook distribution, innovative fund, and teacher in-service training) would not exceed US$0.5 million per year. All recurrent costs associated with the project (both during and after) would amount to less than US$60 million a year, or 3% of the MEN's recurrent budget in 2000-01. Cost recovery and sustainability 4.12 The extent to which such an additional burden could be sustained in future would depend on many factors exogenous to the sector (economic growth rate, total national budget). Within the primary education subsector, moreover, recovery measures are not envisaged for the near future, given the severity of the enrollment situation and evidence that direct costs are a real obstacle to girls' enrollment in rural schools. The Education PAS does not recommend that user charges be introduced and enforced before the post-primary level. To promote a more rational use of available resources, the Education PAS has further recommended a package of measures for improving the MEN staff management system (in such areas as teacher training, recruitment, and assignment). These measures would allow Morocco to set more reasonable student:teacher ratios at the upper- primary and secondary levels, which would generate substantial savings over the medium term. These savings could then be added to those gained from instituting multigrade schools would substantially increase Morocco's available education budget. - 17 - 4.13 Looking beyond the proposed project, cost-recovery and efficiency measures would go far toward reaching the goal of universal primary education. But, to reach this goal, as evidenced by the recent public expenditure review undertaken by the Bank (World Bank 1994c), Morocco would still have to increase its public spending on primary education by an annual rate of about 5% for the next 6 years. That primary education is a genuine public good and one of the core activities for which the Moroccan state has full responsibilities should help to ensure this effort's sustainability. Notwithstanding macroeconomic conditions, achieving this end will entail both inter- and intra- sectoral reallocations. Donors (especially the European Union after signature of the Free Trade Agreement) are also well aware of Morocco's lagging performance in the education sector and might well increase their contributions to help the country mount a sincere effort to overcome it. D. Management and Implementation Program implementation 4.14 The national Social Development Strategy (SDS) and the SPP/BAJ will be monitored by a steering committee made up of all concerned ministers. Such a committee, the Comite de Suivi de la Strat9gie Sociale (CSSS), already exists and is assisted by a Secr9tariat, which is housed in the Ministry of Population's Department of Planning, and is already in place and was actively involved in project and program preparation [para. 6.01c]. The Secr6tariat will be responsible for monitoring the objectives of the SPP/BAJ and will also be the liaison between technical ministries, the CSSS, and the donor community (Annex 2). In parallel, an Observatory for Monitoring Living Conditions will be created to monitor social conditions in the Kingdom. The formal establishment, within the Ministry of Population, of the Observatory would be a condition of Board presentation [para. 6.04a]. 4.15 To simplify implementation and avoid the creation of an overall project implementation and coordination unit, program activities will be implemented under three distinct projects and financed by three distinct loans. The first loan, for the proposed Basic Education Project comprises activities to be implemented by the Ministries of Education, Interior, (construction of primary school facilities, financed through the VAT and implemented by the communities), and Employment and Social Affairs. The second loan (for the Basic Health Project) comprises the activities to be implemented by the Ministry of Public Health. The third loan (for the Coordination and Monitoring of Social Programs, and Employment Promotion Project) comprises the activities to be implemented by the Ministries of Interior (Promotion Nationale) and Population. 4.16 The multiple activities included under the SPP/BAJ will require careful programming and coordination of inputs from the various implementation agencies at the central, provincial and community levels. The individual impact of the three projects, too, could only be measured if implementation were sufficiently well-coordinated for each to build on the efforts of the others. To ensure that SPP/BAJ activities were implemented in a coordinated manner, both at the grass-roots level and in the central ministries, the Government has committed itself to the setting up of a Program Management Information System (PMIS) by the Secrtariat, and to the implementation of the PMIS by the line ministries and the PN. It is expected that the PMIS would be fully operational by December 31, 1997. The data input would be performed by the implementation staff at the provincial level and at the departmental and division levels in the ministries. - 18 - Project Implementation 4.17 Project activities will be implemented at three levels: (i) at the central level, by the concerned line ministries' departments; (ii) at the provincial level, by representatives appointed by the central ministries; and (iii) at the local level, by the communities themselves. Due to several factors, including lack of professional implementation staff, cumbersome administrative procedures, and lack of expertise in project management, Bank projects in Morocco have moved slowly. But the MEN has reorganized its project implementation division and changed several key staff --changes that have already improved the implementation of ongoing projects and should meet implementation needs of the central ministry. To address the multiplicity of implementation layers and departments, furthermore, the MEN will appoint a project education coordinator, and the MEAS will appoint a project literacy coordinator by December 31, 1996 [para. 6.03c(i)] to coordinate the implementation of all activities included under the proposed project, including the construction of education facilities under the Ministry of Interior. Many generic issues--such as cumbersome administrative delays caused by the requirement that all documents pertaining to contracts and payments be reviewed in advance--still remain. An ongoing study undertaken under the responsibility of the Ministry of Finance (Inspection Gnerale) on reasons for delays in the payment of suppliers should help to address this particular problem [para. 6.01b]. The Government will ensure that an action plan to improve the management of the proposed project, based on the recommendations of this study be presented to the Bank for discussions before March 31, 1997, and that implementation be launched no later than October 31, 1997 [para. 6.03c(ii)]. An implementation volume has been prepared, which describes in detail the contents and timing of each activity, as well as the resources needed. 4.18 Activities implemented centrally. (a) Activities to be implemented by the MEN include national school mapping, educational planning, materials, and studies; the procurement of textbooks, educational materials, and some furniture. The construction of primary school facilities has been transferred to the communities and as such is no longer the responsibility of the MEN but of the Ministry of Interior. As reorganized, the MEN now has an implementation division capable of administering the proposed project under the authority of the project coordinator. Nevertheless, the MEN would need to implement a PMIS to manage the system. The MEN would also ensure that a small technical committee be formed to help the coordinator follow up the various activities undertaken. The committee would be composed of (i) representatives of the concerned departments in the MEN, and (ii) representatives from other donors involved in the project (French Cooperation, UNDP, and other to come). The committee would meet twice a year and as needed. (b) With regard to the implementation of the project's proposed literacy activities, the Ministry of Employment and Social Affairs has just created a department of literacy, which will implement literacy activities in cooperation with the MEN and other ministries concerned. The MEAS project coordinator, who will be appointed from this department, will also be responsible for liaising with the Promotion Nationale for the organization of literacy experiments on the sites selected under the Employment Promotion and Poverty Monitoring Project of the SPP/BAJ Program. 4.19 Activities implemented by provincial representatives. The procurement of school furniture will be delegated by the central ministry to its provincial representatives, who will also supervise and assist communities in the construction of primary school facilities. Morocco's provinces have all of the relevant implementation mechanisms and procedures in place, and - 19 - sufficient numbers of qualified staff are available to provide the relevant services. By December 31, 1996, a SPP/BAJ focal point would be appointed in each province to oversee and monitor the implementation of all of the SPP/BAJ activities delegated by the various line ministries [para. 6.03c(i)]. 4.20 Activities implemented by the communities. Communities will carry out various small- scale investments (by building, for instance, classrooms, latrines, canteens, water fountains, dirt roads, etc.). The communities will prepare a yearly budget. part of which would be financed through proceeds from the VAT. A school facility would be included in the budget only if it had first been approved by the School Location Planning division of the central ministry. Most Moroccan communities already have the required managerial know-how to implement the projects presently included in their budgets. Whenever a community does not have the required expertise, governors would provide the required technical assistance (architects, engineers, site supervisors, accountants, etc.). 4.21 Program Management Information System (PMIS). The responsibilities for administering the PMIS would be divided as follows: (a) Provincial level. Each SPP/BAJ provincial focal point would ensure that the PMIS data and information was kept up to date. The various provincial delegates would provide the provincial SPP/BAJ focal point with all pertinent information about project activities. The provincial focal point would ensure that the data was entered into the system and would --with the assistance of this tool-- prepare the annual provincial implementation program. The PMIS would generate implementation progress reports and reports on various indicators and financial benchmarks. The PMIS would be designed on a geographical basis, and in such a manner as to allow for the gradual expansion of the system to include other data required by the Governor and other users. (b) Ministry departmental or divisional level. Each department involved with the SPP/BAJ would be responsible for managing the implementation of their respective project activities using the PMIS. To that end, each concerned department would appoint a staff- member to manage the PMIS. Several different departments and divisions within the Ministries of Education and of Employment and Social Affairs would be responsible for project activities under a ministry-appointed SPP/BAJ coordinator. These two ministry- level coordinators would oversee and coordinate the work of the departmental and divisional SPP/BAJ coordinators and would be expected to ensure the proper use of the PMIS. Procurement 4.22 All goods and services to be financed by the loan would be procured in accordance with the Bank's guidelines. For ICB procedures, the Government would use the Bank standard biddiIg documents, available in French at the time of project negotiations (Marchs de Travaux--Taille Moyenne and Marchs de Fournitures). Procurement of goods and services would be undertaken by the concerned line ministries at the central level, by provincial representatives delegated by the line ministries, and by the communities themselves. NCB procedures at these three levels have been reviewed by the Bank. The procedures agreed upon are in conformity with general Bank procurement guidelines with respect to economy, efficiency, equal opportunity to all eligible bidders, development of local industry, and transparency (Table 4.3 below summarizes the procurement arrangements for goods and services). - 20 - Table 4.3. Procurement arrangements (total including contingencies in US$ million equivalent) Procurement Method ICB NCB Other NBF Total Construction 35.5 35.5 (18.1) (18.1) Equipment 20.4 12.2 8.2 0.8 41.6 (14.0) (4.0) (4.4) (22.4) Food for school cantines 13.6 13.6 (11.5) (11.5) Technical assistance 1.5 0.7 2.12 (1.2) - (1.2) Training 1.0 1.0 (0.8) (0.8) Operating costs 3.8 3.8 Total financed costs 20.4 47.8 24.3 5.3 97.7 Total IBRD financing (14.0) (22.1) (17.9) - (54.0) Note: Figures in parenthesis are the amounts to be financed by the loan 4.23 Civil works. The proposed project would include the construction and rehabilitation of over 2,000 facilities (classrooms, school latrines, school canteens, teacher housing and water fountains). Works contracts would be of small value (from US$8,000 to US$100,000 equivalent per facility), and would be distributed over a large rural area. As demonstrated under previous and ongoing loans, such contracts do not normally attract foreign firms. The communities are responsible for the financing and implementation of education facilities, and as a result, the packaging of contracts is unlikely. Communities are required to follow NCB procedures. Civil works contracts of less than US$20.000, up to an aggregate of US$500.000 equivalent, for the remodeling of small facilities in remote areas may be carried out by force account with the Bank's prior approval. 4.24 Goods (a) Contracts for equipment and materials estimated to cost more than US$500,000 equivalent each would be procured through ICB (US$20.4 million), with the exception of furniture, which could be procured through NCB. Such furniture, manufactured by local suppliers, is of excellent quality, below international prices, and delivery and supply would be appropriate for this project. (b) Contracts for goods costing US$100,000-500,000 equivalent would be procured through NCB (US$12.2 million). (c) Contracts for goods that the Bank agrees to be of proprietary nature (such as computer software, books, and reference materials) could be awarded through direct contracting after negotiations with proprietors or publishers in accordance with procedures acceptable to the Bank (US$4.1 million). A contract with a UN agency locally represented would be signed to manage food for school activities (US$13.6 million) - 21 - (d) Contracts for goods costing less than US$100,000 equivalent each could be awarded through shopping procedures on the basis of three price quotations from suppliers (US$4.1 million). 4.25 Consultant services. (US$2.5 million) Consultants financed under the project would be selected in accordance with the Bank's guidelines for consultants. Consultant services would consist of foreign or local specialized services to conduct specific studies or to offer short-term advice. The project would also finance study tours abroad, some short-term overseas training, and local seminars. The procedures under which such services are engaged are well-known and efficient. (Annex 8 summarizes the technical assistance, training, and seminars required). The MEN is expected to subcontract with the local UNDP office --which has a long-standing experience of and good records in running technical assistance-- entrusting this agency to manage those services. Terms of reference are being prepared to this end. 4.26 Contracts and contract review (a) Items to be disbursed on the basis of proof of services would be subject to Bank review as described in Annex 7. (b) Works. Contracts exceeding US$500,000 equivalent would be subject to prior Bank review. Contracts below US$500,000 equivalent would be subject to ex-post Bank review. (c) Goods. To ensure compliance with Bank procurement guidelines, procurement documentation for all contracts for goods to be awarded through ICB, estimated to cost the equivalent of US$500,000 or more would be subject to prior review by the Bank. Contracts below US$500,000 in value would be subject to ex post review by Bank missions. (d) Consultant services and training. Procurement documentation for all contracts for consulting firms, estimated to exceed the equivalent of US$100,000 would be subject to prior review by the Bank. Procurement documentation for all contracts for the employment of individuals or single source selection of firms estimated to exceed the equivalent of US$50,000 would also be subject to prior review by the Bank. Procurement documentation for all contracts for consulting firms estimated to cost less than US$100,000 equivalent and US$50,000 for all contracts for the employment of individuals or single source selection of firms estimated to cost less than the equivalent of US$50,000 would be limited to terms of references only. (e) Contracts and financial data related to activities subject to lump sum disbursement procedures will not be subject to post review but will be subject to technical audit (para. 4.30). 4.27 Disbursement. The project would be implemented over a period of 5 years. Including a 12-month disbursement lag, the closing date would be December 31, 2003. The loan would be disbursed according to the categories and schedule shown in Tables 4.4, 4.5 and 4.6. -22- Table 4.4. Disbursement by category Category Schedule Category 1 Civil Works (a) lump-sum for items listed in table 4.5; (b) 100% of foreign expenditures and 70% of local expenditures for items not listed. Category 2 Equipment 100% of foreign expenditures and 70% of local expenditures. Category 3 Training lump-sum for item listed in table 4.5; 100% for items not listed. Category 4 Consultants 100% Services Table 4.5. Disbursement by lump sum: Lump sum disbursement amounts by activities (DH). Category 1(a): Civil works Activities Lump sum disbursement Classrooms and satellite schools 200,000 Fence to school 100,000 Teachers quarters 150,000 Latrines 30,000 School water wells 50,000 Improvement to premises for 150,000 literacy programs Category 3(a): Seminars Activities Lump Sum disbursement Seminars, sensitization campaigns 50,000 and educative innovation projects - 23 - Table 4.6. Proposed disbursement schedule (US$ million) Disbursement Plan Project Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 Annual 2.0 10.0 13.0 13.0 10.0 6.0 Cumulative 2.0 12.0 25.0 38.0 48.0 54.0 4.28 Documentation. In accordance with regular Government procedures, the required supporting documents would be retained by the implementing agencies for at least one year after the Bank received the audit report for the year in which the last disbursement was made. This documentation would be made available for review by auditors and visiting staff upon request. Documentation for contracts subject to lump sum disbursement would consist of a "proof of services". This is a certificate established by the borrower, confirming that the specific activity has been implemented in accordance with agreed standards and criteria. (Annex 7). The content and procedure to establish a proof of service were presented in a format agreed upon during negotiations [para. 6.03c(iii)]. Both the disbursement by lump sum and the documentation by proof of services are innovative, result-oriented methods aiming at simplifying procedures and accelerating project disbursement, while giving more initiative to the beneficiaries (especially communities); they concur with the directions set in the new Guidelines for Procurement under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits (para. 3.15. For expenditures under contracts above the prior review thresholds, full documentation would be required. All other expenditures would be disbursed based on Statement of Expenditures (SOE). 4.29 Special account. To reduce the number of claims submitted to the Bank, the Government may establish, maintain, and operate --under terms and conditions satisfactory to the Bank--a Special Account in which the Bank would make an initial deposit of up to US$4.0 million. This special account would be located in the General Treasury of the Ministry of Finance and would be replenished every month, or whenever the undisbursed balance of the account would fall below an amount equal to one third or less of the amount of the initial deposit, whichever came first. 4.30 Accounts and audits. Each department responsible for the implementation of the project in the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Employment and Social Affairs would maintain separate accounts for all project activities in conformance with international accounting practices. Project accounts would be audited in accordance with the Guidelines for Financial Reporting and Auditing of Projects Financed by the World Bank (World Bank, March 1982). Activities subject to reimbursement on the basis of proof of services would be audited in accordance with OD 10.60, para. 48. For technical audits, both reimbursement claims using SOEs and applications for replenishment of special expenditures from the Special Account would be required to be certified by an independent expert rather than by an auditor. The Bank would be provided with an audit report of such scope and detail as the Bank might reasonably request (including a separate opinion by the auditor on disbursement against a certified statement of expenditures and a certified statement of proof of service) within the six months following the end of each fiscal year. - 24 - Supervision, monitoring, and evaluation 4.31 Status of project preparation. A project implementation volume has been prepared, which will be used as a reference during the project's execution. The Secretariat has de facto taken over the responsibility for coordinating the preparation of the three projects. The Secretariat has convened a number of meetings with other concerned ministries, and has organized a workshop on monitoring the implementation of the SDS. Bids would be launched as soon as the corresponding budgets were available. The construction of primary school facilities, now the responsibility of local communities, would start as soon as the budgets of the communities (based on value-added tax revenues) were approved by the Ministry of Interior. But because of budgetary planning, payment, and disbursement lags, during the first year of implementation the loan would disburse only the amount corresponding to the initial deposit to the Special Account. 4.32 Project implementation review. Each line ministry would prepare an annual implementation progress report of a scope and in the detail agreed upon by the Government and the Bank. These reports would be submitted to the Bank not later than September 30, beginning in 1997 and reviewed jointly [para. 6.03d(ii)]. The annual report would include (a) a review of progress achieved in the implementation of the project based on selected monitoring indicators agreed upon, (b) projected sector and project expenditures for the year, and (c) programs for project activities in the selected provinces. The Secr9tariat would collect and review sectoral reports issued for each of the three BAJ projects, and incorporates them in an annual program implementation report. A mid-term project implementation review will be conducted during the third year of implementation, no later than June 30, 1999 [para. 6.03d(i)]. This mid-term review would not only assess the project's implementation progress in greater detail but would also assess the extent to which project activities might need to be redirected to achieve the objectives of the program. In particular, a plan for Government funding of the School Canteen Program would be presented at the mid-term review, and thoroughly discussed [para. 3.07d]. 4.33 Monitoring indicators. The Government has developed, in coordination with the Bank, a list of program and project indicators by which both the process and the impact of the proposed operations can be monitored. The list of indicators was agreed upon before negotiations [para. 6.02b], and a final agreement on baseline values and target values for a selected number of indicators was reached during negotiations [para. 6.03d(iii)]. The value of these indicators would be updated each year and incorporated in the annual implementation report submitted to the Bank each year by the Secretariat [para. 6.04d(ii)]. The complete list of indicators is presented in Annex 9. V. PROJECT BENEFITS AND RISKS A. Benefits 5.01 As a critical element of the SPP/BAJ, the proposed education project would help the Government to sustain its efforts to extend primary school coverage to the poor by targeting children in thirteen deprived rural provinces comprising some 27% of Morocco's population. The construction and equipment of new schools should allow the system to accommodate about 65,000 new pupils each year by the end of the project, and the rehabilitation of existing satellite schools should permit additional enrollments of about 40,000 children. The reduction of direct and - 25 - indirect costs, the better mix of educational inputs, the higher quality education offered, and the measures used to deal with various nonschool factors affecting girls' attendance should also increase demand for primary schools and lower dropout rates for hundreds of thousands of rural children. These benefits would also compound those derived from other SPP/BAJ projects, which would be implemented concurrently in the same communities. Taken together, the projects would improve access to basic services and reduce poverty over the longer run. The implementation of the PAS would also improve efficiency at the secondary level of education, which would free up resources for use at the primary level. Under the SPP/BAJ basic education activities would be integrated with provision of other basic services, exposing education policymakers to cross-sectoral innovations and establishing a service base that should broaden and strengthen the effect of poverty alleviation policies as a whole. Finally, experiments under the literacy component should help to increase the sustainability of skills acquisition, thanks to the linkage between learning and employment promotion. B. Risks 5.02 A first risk is related to the difficulty to bring structural changes in a conservative sector and administration, where any move can have far-reaching political effects. The relatively modest scope of the reforms being pursued, the in-depth discussion of the sector action plan to be implemented, and the political will of the highest levels of the state apparatus will all help to relax this constraint, but this sector will always remain sensitive to external and internal shocks. A second risk lies in the extent to which this new operation would succeed in enticing the rural poor, and especially girls, into basic education. Because the project addresses the issue of school attendance from the demand side and takes into account the results of studies on the determinants of demand and of participatory assessments, this risk is likely to be greatly diminished. The third risk stems from the possible delays of implementation, especially for the decentralized activities. To advert this risk, the Government would adopt the measures recommended by the study on fund flows currently being completed, and a program management information system would be in place before project launching. There is also a risk of insufficient counterpart funding, which would be mitigated by the preparation of sectoral public expenditure three-year programs, to be jointly reviewed each year, and by the establishment of an individualized budget line for the proposed project. Finally, the risk associated with the weak implementation capacities of the MEAS in charge of the literacy component would be reduced through assistance to be provided by the more experienced MEN and thanks to the pilot nature of this component. C. Stakeholders' Participation 5.03 Project preparation has drawn directly or indirectly on the input of final beneficiaries and users, including the results of the Bank participatory study on rural women which has shown that increasing attendance of girls in primary schools of the poorest douars is contingent upon alleviating the most time-consuming domestic chores such as water and fuelwood collection (World Bank 1995a). The design of the project itself (which would build schools with wells) and its integration with the other projects of the SPP/BAJ Program (which would upgrade basic health centers, feeder roads and undertake reforestation) are in line with these needs as expressed by the intended beneficiaries. Project design has also been heavily influenced by the results of the survey conducted by the MEN amongst 1,600 rural households of the Kingdom, which clearly identifies the obstacles to school attendance (MEN 1993). As a result, the project addresses demand factors upfront instead of being supply driven. At the intermediate level, the MEN has undertaken a survey of a sample of about one thousand schools, which has help to identify the needs at the local production level, as expressed by school heads and masters. At the provincial level, MEN staff has - 26 - been widely consulted by central authorities during project preparation. Stakeholders' views would also be sought during project implementation through the beneficiary assessments to be conducted at the initiative of the Secr6tariat. Likewise, a survey has been conducted for the literacy pilot component. This survey has included stakeholders at all levels, from the central staff of the MEAS, to staff in the learning centers, down to a sample of about 300 beneficiaries. The assessment of the latter on the usefulness of traditional literacy campaigns has been taken into account in forging the concept of "post literacy"to be tested under the project. Finally, the other two projects of the SPP/BAJ Program have also been prepared with the participation of actual actors and potential beneficiaries, thus ensuring that the integrated activities envisaged under the program would coincide with real needs perceived by the targeted population, and would mobilize those in charge of implementing the measures aimed at meeting these needs. D. Poverty Category 5.04 The proposed project is part of the SPP Program whose entire justification and overarching objective is poverty alleviation. All activities under the proposed project would benefit rural areas in the thirteen poorest provinces of the country, and would be mostly targeted on girls. Therefore, this project would be in the category "Program of targeted interventions". E. Environmental Assessment 5.05 As a category C project, this project would not normally require an environmental assessment study. Activities having to do with school location, construction, and design, however, would take into account the presence or absence of adequate water supply and safety standards. VI. AGREEMENTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6.01 During preparation of the project, the following actions were taken: (a) The Stratgie de Developpement Social was re-endorsed [para. 2.03]; (b) The contract for the study on financial circuits was signed [para. 4.17]; (c) The Secretariat was informally installed [para. 4. 14]; 6.02 Before issuing the invitation to negotiate: (a) The education sector SAP was officially transmitted to the Bank [para. 3.111; (b) The final list of selected project indicators was transmitted to the Bank [para. 4.33]; 6.03 During negotiations, agreement was reached or assurances given regarding: (a) Sector specific actions (i) Selection criteria, organization, and financing mechanisms for the School Educative Innovation Projects [para. 3.09g]; - 27 - (ii) Completing an assessment of MEN personnel management procedures, including personnel recruitment, placement, and transfers before December 31, 1997 [para. 3.12b]; (b) Financing (i) Agreement with the French Government regarding the parallel financing of part of the training for multigrade teaching [paras. 3.07c and 4.06]; (ii) Beginning in 1997, undertaking and updating each year and thereafter a multiyear rolling public expenditure program for the primary and secondary education sector, and transmittal of the program to the Bank for discussion by July 31 of each year [para. 3.12a]; (iii) Provision of counterpart funds, financing all operating costs associated with the implementation, administration, and supervision of the project, and establishment of individualized project lines in the budget of the MEN and of the MEAS, starting July 1st, 1996 [para. 4.05]; (iv) retroactive financing [para. 4.05]. (c) Project implementation (i) Appointment of an SPP/BAJ education coordinator in the MEN, a SPP/BAJ literacy coordinator in the MEAS, and a SPP/BAJ focal point in each target province by December 31, 1996 [paras. 4.17 and 4.19]; (ii) Presentation to the Bank of an action plan to improve procurement, payment, and disbursements, based on the results of the study on fund flows, before March 31, 1997, and launching implementation of the plan after discussion with the Bank, no later than October 31, 1997 [para. 4.17]; (iii) Procedures to establish a proof of service, and format of such a certificate [para. 4.28]. (d) Project review (i) Organization of a joint mid-term project review by June 30, 1999, and presentation of a medium-term plan regarding the coverage, targeting, and financing of the School Canteen Program for discussion at the midterm review [paras. 3.07d and 4.32]; (ii) Submission to the Bank of an annual implementation report that would include a review of project implementation progress based on selected project indicators, projected sector and project expenditures for the year, and programs for the project activities in the selected provinces by September 30 of each year, beginning in 1997 [paras. 4.32 and 4.33]; (iii) Baseline and target values for selected project indicators [para. 4.33]; - 28 - 6.04 As conditions of Board presentation, (a) The Observatory for Monitoring Living Conditions has been formally established [para. 4.14] Anm l. BASIC SECTOR DATA Page 1 of 6 Figure 1. Structure of the Primary and Secondary Education System Enseignement Supérieur Formation Professionnelle Bac 16 13 ientation 12 9è Année 0i 8è Année 10 7è Année 6è Année 9 5è Année 8 4è Année 7 3èAAnnée 2è Année 6 lè Année Enseignement1 Préscolaire 4 2è Année 1 è Année Age Annex 1 Page 2 of 6 Figure 2. Evolution of Enrollment, by Level of Education (1980181 - 1993194) 3,000.0 2,700.0 2,400.0 2,100.0 1,800.0 3 1,500.0 P 1,200.0 900.0 600.0 300.0 0.01 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 -6-Lower Basic "Upper Basic Secondary AnneL1 Page 3 of 6 Table 1. Share of Females in Total Enrollment by Level of Education and Milieu (1993-94) Rural Urban Boys Gids % Gids Total Boys Girls % Girls Total Lower Basic 762,629 367,001 32.5% 1,129,630 875,237 764,456 46.6% 1,639,693 Upper Basic 57,069 16,732 22.7% 73,801 448,664 340,634 43.2% 789,298 Secondary 6,192 1,839 22.9% 8,031 202,950 152,114 42.8% 355,064 Total 825,890 385,572 31.8% 1,211,462 1,526,851 1,257,204 45.2% 2,784,055 Source: Minist6re de I'Education Nationale - Statistiques Scolaires (1993/94) Annex 1 Page 4 of 6 Table 2. Evolution of Student/Teacher Ratio, by Education Level (1980181 - 1993/94) 1980/81 1985/86 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 Lower Basic 37.0 27.8 26.0 25.0 24.2 27.1 27.2 27.7 28.1 Upper Basic 22.8 20.5 21.8 20.9 20.7 17.0 16.4 17.1 18.1 Secondary 19.6 18.3 16.2 13.8 13.3 14.1 11.3 13.0 13.1 Table 3: Share of the Education Budget in the Government Budget Annex 1 by Level (1973-1993) Page 5 of 6 Education Recurrent Budget Education Investment Budget Total Education Budget Year Basic Secondary Higher Total Basic Secondary Higher Total All Levels 1973 10.1% 11.4% 1.9% 23% 4.6% 6.0% 1.1% 11.7% 19.2% 1974 6.7% 7.1% 1.4% 15% 4.1% 6.8% 1.5% 12.4% 14.4% 1975 6.1% 6.0% 1.7% 14% 1.9% 5.7% 1.6% 9.2% 12.4% 1976 4.6% 5.7% 1.6% 12% 1.7% 4.0% 1.9% 7.6% 13.5% 1977 8.0% 11.0% 3.2% 22% 2.1% 3.7% 1.2% 7.0% 14.0% 1978 8.6% 11.5% 3.4% 24% 3.3% 5.6% 0.4% 9.3% 17.6% 1979 8.5% 11.5% 4.8% 25% 1.9% 6.2% 1.6% 9.6% 18.6% 1980 8.2% 10.8% 4.3% 23% 2.8% 5.9% 1.3% 9.9% 18.5% 1981 9.2% 11.8% 4.9% 26% 3.9% 6.5% 2.0% 12.4% 20.6% 1982 9.2% 11.9% 4.8% 26% 3.0% 5.5% 2.4% 10.9% 18.7% 1983 10.3% 12.9% 5.3% 29% 3.8% 7.6% 2.9% 14.4% 22.6% 1984 10.8% 14.1% 5.1% 30% 4.1% 6.7% 2.0% 12.9% 23.9% 1985 10.1% 13.6% 4.9% 29% 3.8% 6.9% 2.5% 13.2% 22.9% 1986 10.4% 13.9% 5.3% 30% 4.4% 6.1% 3.1% 13.6% 21.9% 1987 10.2% 13.7% 5.1% 29% 3.9% 5.7% 3.0% 12.6% 21.5% 1988 10.2% 13.6% 5.3% 29% 4.6% 5.5% 4.9% 15.0% 23.5% 1989 11.5% 15.2% 5.1% 32% 3.7% 4.9% 1.8% 10.5% 24.9% 1990 11.7% 16.4% 5.4% 34% 1.2% 2.7% 2.4% 6.4% 24.1% 1991 11.9% 15.3% 5.3% 33% 1.6% 5.4% 3.4% 10.4% 26.3% 1992 11.9% 14.9% 5.2% 32% 2.2% 6.1% 3.7% 11.9% 26.7% 1993 11.2% 14.1% 4.9% 30% 1.7% 5.7% 3.0% 10.4% 25.0% Source : World Bank, 1994. Royaume du Maroc: Dpenses publiques et perspectives Annex 1 Page 6 of 6 Table 4. Budget Allocation for Education (1995) Basic & Secondary Higher Education Total million DHS % million DHS % million DHS % Operating Budget 12,012 92.3% 2,273 85.0% 14,285 91.1% Personnel 11,245 86.4% 1,350 50.5% 12,595 80.3% Equipment & Others 767 5.9% 923 34.5% 1,690 10.8% Investment Budget 1,000 7.7% 400 15.0% 1,400 8.9% Total 13,012 100.0% 2,673 100.0% 15,685 100.0% Source: Loi de finance (1995) Annex 2 Page 1 of 2 SPP/BAJ: ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE Table 1. Ministry-Level Responsibilities for the Three SPP Projects MEN MSP MEAS MI MP (3) Primary 1. BASIC EDUCATION (1)cPrimar (2) Literacy School Construction" (4) Basic II. BASIC HEALTH Heastc Health III. COORDINATION (6) Statistical AND MONITORING Monitoring OF SOCIAL (5omlon (7) Program PROGRAMS, AND Coordination LABOR PROMOTION I (Secrtafiat) MEN: Ministre de I'Education Nationale (Ministry of National Education) MSP: Minist6re de la Sant6 Publique (Ministry of Public Health) MEAS: Minist6re de I'Emploi et des Affaires Sociales (Ministry of Labor and of Social Affairs) MI: Minist6re de 1Int6rieur (Ministry of the Interior) MP: Minist6re de la Population (Ministry of Population) * school construction not included ** supervised by local collectivities Table 2. SPP/BAJ Organizational Chart CSSS Secrdtariat Basic Education Basic Health Employment Promotion and Project Project Poverty Monitoring Project MEN MEAS MSP MP F MI SSP Technical SSP SSP SSP SSP Coordinator Committee Coordinator Coordinator Coordinator Coordinator U Provincial I Focal pointI L J II I I I I I CD Annex& Page 1 of 1 PROVINCES SELECTED FOR THE SPP PROGRAM Rural Share in Total Share in population, total rural population, total 1994 population 1994 population Ratio Rank Province (000) (%) (000) (%) ruralAtotal Saharan provinces 1. Ouarzazate 553 4.4% 695 2.7% 80% 2. Taroudant 560 4.4% 694 2.7% 81% 3. Tiznit 278 2.2% 348 1.3% 80% Wilaya of Marrakech 4. Al Haouz 402 3.2% 435 1.7% 92% 5. Chichaoua 280 2.2% 312 1.2% 90% 6. El Kelaa Sraghna 551 4.4% 682 2.6% 81% 7. Essaouira 358 2.8% 434 1.7% 82% 8. Safi 447 3.5% 823 3.2% 54% Wilaya Grand Casablanca 9. Azilal 393 3.1% 455 1.7% 86% Wilaya of Tetouan 10. Chefchaouen 396 3.1% 439 1.7% 90% 11. Sidi Kacem 471 3.7% 646 2.5% 73% Wilaya of Fes 12. A Hoceima 270 2.1% 383 1.5% 70% 13. Taza 502 4.0% 708 2.7% 71% Total, selected provinces 5,461 43.1% 7,054 27.1% 77% Total Morocco 12,659 100.0% 26.074 100.0% 49% Source: Ministbre de 1ncitation de I'Economie - Direction de la Statistique. R6sultats provisoires du Recensement G6ndral de la Population. February 1995. Note: Criteria for the selection of provinces 1. Living standards indicators 1.1 Annual per capita expenditures 1.2 Urbanization rate 2. Education sector indicators 2.1 Illiteracy rate 2.2 Admission rate in first year of primary education (children aged 7) 3. Health sector indicators 3.1 Under-5 mortality rate 3.2 Population per physician 3.3 Population per paramedical staff 3.4 Population per health center Selected Project Data Annex 4 Page 1 of 5 Table 1. Rural School-Aged Population in the Selected SPP Provinces Province Age 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total Girls Total Girls Total Girls Total Girls Total Girls Total Girls Alhoceima 7899 3870 7789 3816 7663 3755 7514 3682 7349 3601 7156 3507 Azilal 9199 4507 9294 4554 9418 4615 9550 4680 9691 4749 9766 4785 Chefchaou 9704 4755 9568 4689 9414 4613 9231 4523 9028 4424 8791 4308 Chichaoua 6897 3380 6809 3336 6709 3287 6592 3230 6465 3168 6300 3087 ElHaouz 11704 5735 11554 5662 11385 5579 11186 5481 10970 5375 10690 5238 El Kelaa 15683 7684 15727 7706 15764 7724 15782 7733 15801 7743 15645 7666 Essaouira 10676 5231 10540 5165 10385 5089 10204 5000 10007 4903 9752 4778 Ouarzazate 17511 8580 17280 8467 17011 8335 16703 8185 16391 8031 15912 7797 Safi 12896 6319 12933 6337 12963 6352 12978 6359 12994 6367 12865 6304 Sidikacem 10814 5299 10703 5244 10628 5208 10576 5182 10557 5173 10482 5136 Taroudant 17482 8566 17253 8454 16984 8322 16676 8171 16364 8019 15887 7785 Taza 16490 8080 16260 7968 15997 7839 15686 7686 15343 7518 14940 7320 Tiznit 9637 4722 9511 4660 9362 4588 9193 4505 9021 4420 8758 4291 TOTAL 156592 76728 155221 76058 153683 75306 151871 74417 149981 73491 146944 72002 Annex 4 Page 2 of 5 Table 2. Enrollments in Basic Primary Education in the Selected SPP Provinces First year Total enrollment Teachers Total Girls Total Girls Alhoceima 5904 2307 25808 8509 1162 Azilal 7690 2726 34878 10580 1556 Chefchaouen 7986 3134 30774 10258 1256 Chichaoua 4768 1688 17673 5153 833 El Haouz 8779 3248 33174 9849 1323 El Kelaa 11369 4415 44877 14153 2065 Essaouira 7471 2551 27884 7663 1444 Ouarzazate 14855 5873 69609 21826 2822 Safi 7826 2708 33076 9736 1493 Sidikacem 10722 4236 50419 16914 1919 Taroudant 13308 5160 51941 15733 2369 Taza 11444 4106 52549 16401 2311 Tiznit 6880 2779 30118 9206 1387 Total 119002 44931 502780 155981 21940 Annex 4 Page 3 of 5 Table 3. Projected Core Current Budgetary Expenditures, 1995-2001 Basic Education % incr. % incr. % incr. % incr. % incr. % incr. % incr. from from from from from from from prev. prev. prev. prev. prev. prev. prev. 93/94 94-95 year 95-96 year 96-97 year 97-98 year 98-99 year 99-00 year 00-01 year Wages 3835 4101 7 4298 5 4479 4 4654 4 4800 3 4923 3 5031 2 Non-wage exp. 172 200 16 229 15 432 89 504 17 530 5 554 5 579 5 Total 4007 4301 7 4527 5 4911 8 5158 5 5330 3 5477 3 5610 2 Annex 4 Page 4 of 5 Table 4 Douars without school. by number of inhabitants Provinces Less than 150 150-199 200-249 250-299 300 and Total over Al Hoceima 14 7 10 8 15 54 Azilal 68 29 27 34 69 227 Chefchaouan 94 50 32 26 26 228 Chichaoua 72 27 19 17 32 167 El Haouz 45 25 17 6 2 95 El Kalaa 21 7 11 0 0 39 Essaouira 1 1 0 3 27 32 Ouarzazate 43 21 22 10 3 99 San 8 6 2 4 10 30 Sidi Kacem 3 4 2 0 0 9 Taroudante 227 44 20 1 4 296 Taza 62 2 6 6 2 78 Tiznit 124 10 8 1 2 145 Total 782 233 176 116 192 1499 Annex 4 Page 5 of 5 Table 5 Classroom Requirements in Rural Areas (2000-2001) Population in age of Available Province schooling Nbr. of classes Nbr. of classrooms* Gap** Aged 7-12 (24 students per classrooms in 2000 - 2001 class) (1,5) 93-94 94-95 93-94 94-95 Al Hoceima 43 112 1796 1 198 891 918 307 280 Azizal 52172 2174 1449 1196 1222 253 227 Chefchaouen 54 200 2 258 1 506 912 944 594 562 El Kella 87012 3626 2417 1578 1638 839 779 Essaouira 56216 2342 1 562 883 1001 679 561 Chichaoua 37 552 1 565 1 043 544 619 499 424 Al Haouz 63635 2651 1768 854 918 914 850 Ouarzazate 100973 4207 2805 1865 1933 940 872 Safi 71939 2997 1998 1082 1114 916 884 Sidi Kacem 60688 2529 1686 1331 1351 355 335 Taroudant 98001 4083 2722 1697 1826 1025 896 Taza 89986 3749 2500 1550 1586 950 914 Tiznit 56380 2349 1566 1106 1170 460 396 Total 871866 36326 24220 15489 16240 8731 7980 * Used classrooms + closed classrooms in good condition. ** Theoretical gap on the basis of I classroom per 24 students and a rotation ratio of 1,5. Annexd5 Page 1 of I Expenditure Accounts by Components - Base Costs (USS Million) 1. EDUCATION IA IB IC ID IE IF Access, Girls School Literacy Support Follow-Up Retention Attendance Quality Rate MEPS Management Total Investment Costs WORKS New Construction 12.8 - 2.2 - - - 15.0 Extension 10.3 - - - - - 10.3 Development/Rehabilitation - 3.1 - 0.2 - - 3.3 Subtotal 23.1 3.1 2.2 0.2 - - 28.6 EQUIPMENT Machinery,Tools - - 1.0 - - - 1.0 Vehicules - 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.1 Data Processing - - - - 0.2 0.3 0.5 Manuals, Supplies, Furniture 0.8 10.5 0.1 - - 11.5 Teaching materials 5.3 - 11.8 0.7 - - 17.8 School Canteens 1.5 - - - - - 1.5 Food for Canteens 11.4 - - - - - 11.4 Subtotal 19.1 10.5 13.5 0.9 0.3 0.4 44.8 EXPERTISE Studies 0.1 - 0.0 - - 0.1 Foreign Consultants 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 - 1.5 Local Consultants 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 - 0.7 Subtotal 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 - 2.4 TRAINING Local 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 - 0.9 Abroad 0.0 - - 0.3 - - 0.3 Seminars - - - 0.2 - - 0.2 Innovation Fund - 1.0 - - - 1.0 Subtotal 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.1 - 2.4 Total Investment Costs 43.2 14.1 16.9 2.4 1.2 0.4 78.1 Recurrent Costs Operating Costs - - 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.2 1.5 Total Recurrent Costs - - 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.2 1.5 Total BASELINE COSTS 43.2 14.1 17.6 2.9 1.4 0.6 79.7 Physical Contingencies 4.2 1.4 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 7.6 Price Contingencies 5.4 1.9 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 10.4 Total PROJECT COSTS 52.8 17.4 21.6 3.7 1.6 0.7 97.7 Taxes 6.1 3.2 4.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 13.9 Foreign Exchange 24.9 5.4 6.3 1.2 0.9 0.4 39.0 \a Including information and awareness campaigns Annex 6 Page 1 of 7 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DATA I ALTERNATIVES, COSTS AND BENEFICIARIES 1. The essence of the economic analysis conducted for the project consists in (i) making sure that the activities envisaged address both incentives and obstacles to schooling, and (ii) assessing the degree of cost-effectiveness of each activity. Distance to school has a very significant and strong impact on girls' probability of access to primary school (see table 1). So far, MEN's strategy has been to implant "Satellite (incomplete) Schools", offering only the first grades of primary education, in villages with a limited number of school-age children, the rationale being that older children would be able and willing to walk to the more distant complete "Mother School". The Bank has suggested an alternative strategy consisting in the implantation of small complete schools (with two classrooms), using extensively multigrade teaching. While this option responds to the need to have schools closer from the communities, it has three additional advantages: (a) they offer the complete primary cycle, which influences positively the probability of access for boys; (b) they are less costly than the traditional single grade teaching, essentially because of a higher pupil/teacher ratio; and (c) multigrade teaching, if properly organized with specifically trained teachers and the relevant teaching materials, is as effective as single grade teaching (see box). This strategy, which has been agreed upon by the Government during the dialogue leading to the project preparation, will be used extensively in the project and is estimated to generate savings of approximately $6.5 million per year, at the end of the project period. 2. A large number of factors are generally considered as potentially influencing access to and retention in primary education. The conclusions of a study carried out in 1993 (MEN, 1993) on the determinants of schooling in rural areas in Morocco have been systematically used to screen potential factors and focus on those having the stronger influence on both access and retention (tables I and 2). Female teachers and single-sex schools, which are more costly than coeducational schools, are not related to higher access and retention of girls and have not been taken into consideration. The project is rather focusing on schooling campaigns, which have strong impact on access and retention of girls, canteens, equipped and complete schools. While schooling campaigns are very cost-effective, they are just a starting point and cannot be used in isolation: first, schools have to be closer to girls (see para above); then, depending upon facilities available in existing schools, canteens, water and latrines, and/or a complete cycle may have to be offered in schools characterized by low female enrollments. Some of these factors are more cost-effective than others, but in each specific school, it is their mix, in relation to the local situation, which is important. Adult literacy campaigns are taking into consideration the impact of mothers' literacy on girls schooling, while the modernization of Koranic preschool would partially relieve girls from the task of taking care of young children, which often prevents them from going to school. 3. The project strategy for raising the quality of primary education is inspired by both research results at the international level , since there is no achievement study available on primary education in Morocco, and a survey on inputs available in rural primary schools carried out during project See for example M. Lockheed and A. Verspoor, 1990. "Improving the Quality of Primary Education in Developing Countries: A Review of Policy Options". New York, Oxford University Press Annex 6 Page 2 of 7 preparation. It focuses on kits of teaching materials, teachers guides, classroom furniture (where it is missing), remedial teaching for low-achievers, school heads in-service training, first-aid kits and a modest component of teachers housing to boost their motivation. The absence of an achievement study prevents us from presenting a cost-effectiveness analysis of this sub-component. 4. The Basic Health Project and the Employment Promotion and Poverty Monitoring Project of the SPP/BAJ Program will contribute to improving health conditions and to developing local infrastructure in areas of priority intervention and will therefore have an impact on pupils absenteeism and school accessibility and thus reinforce the impact of the proposed Basic Education Project. Finally, the implementation of the proposed project in rural Morocco will generate the externalities associated with basic education as shown by international evidence, such as decreased fertility, reduced maternal and child mortality, improved health, etc... Cost-effectiveness of Multigrade schools There are two main policy options to deal with the issue of extending school services to sparsely populated areas: * using nucleus and satellite schools; * using multigrade teaching. Comparison of the cost of both options The unit cost in rural areas for the nucleus/satellite system is currently 2862 DH, with an average student to teacher (STR) ratio of 15. By grouping each two levels in multigrade classes, it is virtually possible to double the STR. Due to physical and organizational constraints (usually insufficient classroom size and teacher's reluctance to handle very large groups of students) the more conservative assumption of reaching an STR of 20 is selected. Under this assumption, and in spite of the additional cost inherent to the teaching method (estimated to 40 US$ per student) the unit cost is reduced to 2136 DH, which represents a net saving of 25 percent over the current situation. The effectiveness of each option The effectiveness of each option is measured by its effect on attendance and educational achievement. There is strong statistical and field evidence that multigrade teaching has not reduced retention in the schools that have been experiencing it. Moreover, it promotes access by allowing (i) the extension of the number of complete schools, which has been demonstrated to increases boys' attendance by 6 percent, and (ii) bringing schools closer to families, which promotes girls' attendance by as much as 76 percent. As for educational achievement, although multigrade teaching has been introduced and piloted in Morocco for several years its impact on achievement has not yet been thoroughly assessed. However, where in the world it has been implemented properly, multigrade teaching has been shown to stimulate learning and to increase achievement in specific subject areas. Conclusion Under the assumption, supported by international evidence, that multigrade teaching does not impede learning, it emerges as a better alternative to the currently extensively used nucleus/satellite option. In fact, while it promotes access for both girls and boys, it also saves 25 percent on unit costs. Anaex.6 Page 3 of 7 Table 1: Factors contributing to the probability of admission of children into primary schools Factors Girls Girls Boys Boys Cost Increase in Significance Increase in Significance per pupil probability of probability of per year access access (Dirhams) Schooling + 15% - not significant 3.7 Campaigns Closer School + 73% + 6% 481 Complete + 12% positive but significance 480 to 507 Canteen limited depend upon model Equipped + 11% ** - not significant 92 to 102 School Complete - not significant + 7% ** 481 School Literate mother + 22% - not significant (1) I child or more - 16% (1 child) - not significant under 6 years - 21% (more than I child) ***_- Table 2: Factors contributing to the retention of children into primary schools Factors Girls Girls Girls Girls Boys Boys Boys Boys Cost Dropout Signific. Schooling Signific. Dropout Signif Schooling Signific. per pupil Probab. Duration Probab. Duration per year (Dirhams) Schooling - not increased not - not 3.7 Campaign signific. duration signific. signific. Closer - not - not - not - not 481 School signific. signific. signific. signific. Complete - not - not decreased ** increased * 480 to Canteen signific. signific. probab. duration 507 Single decreased - not - not - not Grade probab. signific. signific. signific. School I I_I_I_I_I Literate probably nearly not probably nearly not - not - not (1) Mother decreased signific. increased signific. signific. signific. - probab. duration I I I_ific. Dropout probability: probability of dropping out before reaching Grade 4 Schooling duration: number of grades approved (1) Literacy programs being developed on an experimental basis under this project, it is not possible to refer to reliable unit costs. Source (tables I & 2): adapted from Ministre de I'Education Nationale 1993 Annex 6 Page 4 of 7 Table 3 Selected interventions by objectives, beneficiaries and costs Action Selected General Objective Immediate Beneficiaries Unit cost Objective per year (US$) AR GG QU A. 1. build fenced accommodate more 21,000 pupils $32.2 per multigrade schools ** * * pupils at lower cost per year pupil A.2. complete ** ** reduce distance 36,000 pupils $10.5 per satellite schools from/to school per year pupil A.3.a. develop * * ** prepare teachers to 5,100 teachers $2.0 per adapted teaching work in multigrade pupil methods for school multigrade schools A.3.b equip adapt equipment to 56,000 pupils $6.1 per multigrade facilities * * ** multigrade teaching per year pupil with pedagogic methods material A.4. extend school ** ** * increase incentives 66,000 pupils canteen program to attend school (equipment) $27.5 per (equipment & food 75,000 pupils (food pupil stuff) stuff) per year A.5. improve * ** increase parents' 3,000 pupils $6.3 per Koranic preschool acceptability and per year pupil facilities reduce girls' chores B.1. distribute free ** ** reduce direct costs 97,000 girls each $9.4 per textbooks to girls and increase year girl achievements B.3. building latrines ** increase school 90,000 pupils each $2.2 per and wells attractiveness year pupil B.5. organize ** ** raise parents' 33,000 potential $3.2 per awareness campaigns acceptability and new pupils each pupil attract more pupils year C.1. provide basic * * ** make class-rooms 154,000 pupils $2.4 per material more effective each year pupil C.2. distribute * * ** make teaching 23,000 teachers $.3 per teachers' manuals more effective pupil Annex 6 Page 5 of 7 C.3. organize mobile * make more libraries available basic material C.S. equip ** provide 80 inspectorates $1.1 per inspectorates with inspectorates with pupil vehicles necessary tools $.3 per C. 6. train school ** improve school 240 directors pupil directors management C.8. build housing ** improve teachers' 280 rural teachers $2.9 per for teachers conditions of living pupil Notes AR= access and retention; GG= gender gap QU= quality of education ** direct impact indirect impact Source: Staff estimates 11 ASSESSING INCREMENTAL RECURRENT COSTS 5. All costs have been assessed on an annual basis, at the end of the project. A first group of incremental costs is associated directly with the implementation of the project, and a second group would be borne after the end of the project. 6. Incremental costs during project's life (a) Additional staff recruited for primary education Two projections of enrollments, teaching and non-teaching staff required, and the corresponding salary bill have been done, and are included within the Sectoral Action Program. The "Low Hypothesis" refers to what would happen without the proposed project, while the "High Hypothesis" takes into account the impact of the project (table 4). In order to assess the incremental staff costs generated by the project, both projections have been compared. Since specific projections are not available for the 13 project provinces, their enrollments have been estimated using current proportions. The incremental salary cost generated by the project is the difference between what the country would have paid without the project and what it would pay with it: 2,078 - 1,806 = DH 272.0 million. Annex 6 Page 6 of 7 Table 4 Projections of teachers requirements and salaries (1994/95 - 2000/01) 1994/95 Low Hypothesis High Hypothesis Baseline 2000/01 2000/01 Whole Country Total Staff 103,220 120,740 121,960 Total Salaries (1) 3,835 4,704 4,744 20 Project Provinces Schooling Ratio 66.0% 73.0% 85.6% 7-12 children 1,353,420 1,524,000 1,524,000 Pupil/teacher Ratio 23.2 24.0 25.0 Enrollments 893,300 1,112,500 1,335,700 Teachers 38,500 46,350 53,430 Total Salaries (1) 1,430 1,806 2,078 (1) DH million (b) Maintenance costs of additional cars 93 cars will be bought under the project. Their annual maintenance costs is assessed at 20% of the value of a new car. Additional cost: DH 1.9 million. (c) Maintenance cost for new schools and other construction works The annual maintenance cost is estimated at 2% of the value of the building. Over the project period, the total value of all school buildings and other construction works is 266.3 DH million. Additional cost: DH 5.3 million. (d). Maintenance and supplies for computers and printers Additional cost: DH 0.2 million. 7. Incremental costs after project completion period (a) School canteen program In 1994/95, the Government was contributing $14.0 million to this program, out of a total cost of $22.5 million. If the Government was to commit a total substitution of donors' contribution from 2000/01 on, it would assume the total cost of the SCP at that time ($US million 35.6). Compared with its 1994/95 contribution, this would represent an increase of DH 181.4 million. Although more analysis will be needed to assess the impact of the SCP both with respect to school attendance and school achievements, as well as its targeting and implementation, it is likely that a large portion of the SCP will inevitably have to be borne by the state, after WFP's and Bank's withdrawal. Counting on the contribution of local communities is probably not realistic at a large scale in the rural regions where these communities are particularly short of resources Page 7 of 7 (b) Innovation fund At the end of the project, the innovation fund will be evaluated. If it were decided to maintain it, after evaluation, the additional cost will be DH 2.0 million. (c) In-service training of teachers assigned to multigrade classes A one-week training program is going to be given to all 5,100 teachers assigned to multigrade classes during the duration of the project. It may be useful to organize a second one-week seminar after the end of the project for re-enforcement and evaluation. This will be done over a five-year period for all 5,100 teachers, at an additional cost of DH 1.2 million. (d) Distribution of free textbooks and school supplies to underprivileged children Under the project, 20% of all pupils in rural primary schools in the 13 provinces will receive free textbooks and school supplies. Since it may prove difficult to stop this activity, the Government should commit to pursue its funding after the end of the project. The additional cost would be DH 0.8 million per year. 8. The total incremental recurrent costs corresponding to activities to be completed during the project life would be DH 465 million, and those for activities to be pursued after the project would amount to DH 185 million, that is a total of DH 650 million, which would represent about 3 % of MEN's recurrent budget around 2000/01. Annex 7 Page 1 of I PROCUREMENT AND DISBURSEMENT UNDER PROOF OF SERVICE A "proof of service" is a certificate established by the Government confirming that the specific operation, service or activity has been implemented in accordance with agreed standards, criteria or terms of references which have been reviewed by the Bank at priori. For a "certificate of proof of service" (Certificate) to be awarded the following procedures would have to be followed: (a) By June of each year, a yearly program of activities, planned to be implemented during the next fiscal year, will need to be established for each of the concerned communities. This program will be established by the delegates at the provincial levels, submitted for review and clearance to the respective line ministries and for approval to the Bank. (b) Budgets, corresponding to the approved list of activities, will be made available by the line ministries to the provincial delegations. For the construction of primary school facilities, each community will include the necessary funds in its annual budget. (c) Activities subject to lump sum disbursement procedures will be procured: (i) in accordance with National Procurement Procedures (ii) for civil works: in accordance with agreed stapdards or architectural drawings reviewed at priori by the Bank; and; (iii) for training and seminars in accordance with agreed terms of references established for each type of training or seminar, and reviewed by the Bank at priori. (iv) Contracts and financial data related to activities subject to lump sum disbursement procedures will not be subject to post review. (d) Upon completion of the activity, the ministry's representative, accompanied by a technical staff (architect or engineer for civil works, educator for seminars, etc.) will inspect the completed facility or review the training/seminar, and issue a Certificate of completion and/or a Certificate confirming that the training/seminar took place and was delivered as planned. This technical Certificate will certify that the described activity has been implemented in accordance with the agreed standards, criteria or terms of references, and will be established in a format and content acceptable to the Bank. Because the disbursement amount is not a percentage of a contract amount, and because the item has been procured in accordance with National Procurement Procedures, it will not be required that the certificate mention the cost of the operation, nor the procurement procedure. (e) This certificate will be forwarded to the concerned Ministry which will prepare a monthly Statement of Expenditures (SOE), listing all completed activities. The cost of each activity will be the average cost as defined in Table 4.5 of the SAR. The amount to be reimbursed will be the lump sum amount per activity, as listed in Table 4.5 and in Schedule 1 of the Loan Agreement. The certificate of completion will also trigger other activities such as providing furniture, educational material and teachers for education facilities. (f) The annual audit will include an audit (at random) of some of the Certificates. The audit will also include a technical audit (at random) of the implemented activities. Annex 8 Page 1 of 3 SUMMARY OF TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE AND TRAINING Table 1. Technical Assistance RESOURCES RESOURCES National International TYPE OF ASSISTANCE (person-month) (person-month) A. Access and retention 1. Propose alternatives to the organization, management and 4 p/m 4 p/m meals offered by the SCP. 2. Develop a strategy and a program for Kouttabs teachers I p/m pre-service and in-service training. 3. Develop teaching materials for training of Kouttabs teachers 1.5 p/m and counselors. 4. Develop textbooks for Kouttabs pupils. 2 p/m 5. Develop guides and other teaching materials for Kouttabs 2 p/m teachers and counselors. 6. Evaluate innovations concerning school calendar and daily 2 p/m time-schedule in other countries. 7. Experiment flexible calendar and daily time-schedule. 2 p/m 8. Evaluate experimentation of flexible school calendar and 2 p/m daily time-schedule. 9. Study options for identifying and targeting children not 2 p/m admitted to primary school. 10. Experiment options for organizing basic education courses 2 p/m 1 p/m targeted toward children not admitted to primary school. 11. Evaluate those experiments. 1 p/m B. Reduce participation gap between boys and girls. 12. Study options for implanting wells and latrines according to 2 p/m local conditions. 13. Evaluate former schooling campaigns and develop a more 2 p/m effective strategy. C. Quality 14. Select a set of basic guides and books for rural teachers. I p/m 15. Organize a seminar on the results of the National 3 p/m 1.5 p/m Assessment Program. 16. Launch a new National Assessment Program. 6 p/m 6 p/m 17. Develop a strategy for remedial teaching targeted towards 3 p/m low-achievers. 18. Develop teaching materials for remedial teaching. 1 p/m 19. Evaluate the impact of remedial teaching. 2 p/m 20. Develop teaching materials for school heads. 2 p/m Annel Page 2 of 3 RESOURCES RESOURCES National International TYPE OF ASSISTANCE (person-month) (person-month) 21. Set up the organization of the innovation fund. I p/m 22. Categorize communities according to basic services 2 p/m available and difficulty of life. 23. Develop a program for in-service and pre-service training 2 p/m 2 p/m of teachers in physical education. D. Improving the performance of literacy programs 24. Identify inputs and orientations for post-literacy strategies I p/m 6 p/m adapted to the needs of the 6 provinces. 25. Finalize post-literacy strategies and study their I p/m 3 p/m consequences for the intervention of the concerned Ministries. 3 p/m 26. Develop textbooks and teaching materials for literacy and post-literacy courses. I p/m 27. Evaluate literacy and post-literacy campaigns. 4 p/m 28. Evaluate the use of libraries. I p/m I p/m 29. Train the trainers at central and provincial level. 2 p/m 6 p/m 30. Project evaluation. I p/m 3 p/m 31. Develop a formative evaluation system. I p/m 12 p/m 32. Draft instruments. I p/m 6 p/m 33. Test formative evaluation methodology. I p/m 6 p/m 34. Identify priority research themes. I p/m 8 p/m 35. Carry out research projects. E. Capacity building 2 p/m I p/m 36. Evaluate computerization of DGSPP information system. 4 p/m 4 p/m 37. Finalize computerization of DGSPP information system. 3 p/m 3 p/m 38. Develop a public expenditure program (PEP). 3 p/m 3 p/m 39. Develop an advanced methodology for school mapping. 6 p/m 2 p/m 40. Follow-up of the implantation of the advanced school mapping methodology at provincial level. 3 p/m 2 p/m 41. Actualize Educational Atlas. 4 p/m 2 p/m 42. Develop and implement a system of school indicators. 5 p/m 5 p/m 43. Evaluate the process of budget preparation and budget allocation between provinces. 4 p/m 4 p/m 44. Study on utilization of teachers in colleges and lycees. 2 p/m 2 p/m 45. Study on feasibility of locating staff positions at the school level. 3 p/m 3 p/m 46. Adjust human resources management techniques to proposed changes. 2 p/m 47. Assess needs for studies on pupils achievement. I p/m 1 p/m 48. Train national specialists on assessment of achievement. 1 p/m 1 p/m 49. Specify indicators for project follow-up and evaluation. 2 p/m 2 p/m 50. Elaborate a long-term program for studies on education. Annex.. Page 3 of 3 Table 2. Training RESOURCES National/ International TYPE OF ASSISTANCE (person-week) A. Access and retention 1. Train trainers for multigrade teaching. 2. In-service training of teachers assigned to multigrade classes. 3. Pre-service training of new teachers for multigrade teaching. 4. Training of Kouttabs counselors. 3p/w (N) 5. Training of trainers of Kouttabs teachers. 1p/w (N) 6. Training of Kouttabs teachers. 5p/w (N) B. Quality 7. Training on data collection and processing of school inputs. 2p/w (N) 8. Seminar on National Assessment Program results. lp/w (I/N) 9. Training on specialists for new National Assessment Program. 6p/w (I/N) 10. Training of trainers involved in remedial teaching. 2p/w (N) 11. Training trainers of school heads. 2p/w (N) 12. Implementing an in-service training program for school heads in some 20 p/w (N) CFIs. C. Improving the performance of the literacy program 13. Analyze studies and documents on literacy and post-literacy programs I p/w (N) 14. Train provincial staff on new post-literacy programs. 4 p/w (N) 15. Train staff in charge of experimental projects. 6 p/w (N) 16. Disseminate new post-literacy orientations and methods. 2 p/w (I/N) 17. Management training for provincial staff. 5 p1w (N) 18. Train staff on formative evaluation. ? (I/N) D. Capacity building 19. Train DSPP personnel for preparation of Public Expenditure Program 6 p/w (I/N) 20. Train provincial and national staff for advanced mapping technique. 6 p/w (I/N) 21. Train staff responsible for resource allocation between provinces. 10 p/w (I/N) 22. Seminar on results of personnel management and utilization studies. 3 p/w (I/N) 23. Train staff on evaluation of achievement techniques 6 p/w (I/N) Annex 9 Page 1 of 2 Project Implementation Monitoring: Key Indicators Indicator Geographic Contents Baseline Value Target Value Unit (1995/96) (2000/01) 1. Admission of Target Proportion of girls in 37.8% 45.6% Girls provinces total admissions in first grade 2. Expenditures National Total budgetary 51.0 DH 97.1 DH million on didactic inputs expenditures (MoE) million allocated to school books and materials 3. Coverage rate Target Number of "douars" with net: 36.8% net: 39.1% provinces an accessible primary gross: 92.1% gross: 94.3 school inside douar (net) inside and outside (gross) 4. Number of Target 354 364 ** beneficiaries of the provinces School Canteen System 5. Enrollment Target Number of children girls:77.7% girls:98.8% rate provinces enrolled in basic boys:34.8% boys:72.8% education/number of all:55.0% all:86.1% children aged 7-12 6. Girls' Target Number of girls enrolled 31.0% 41.4% participation rate provinces in basic education/total enrollments in basic education 7. share of free Target Number of books 0% 20% school books provinces distributed free of charge for primary schools children/total number of books distributed in primary schools 8. Student/ Target Number of students per 22.9 24.4 teacher ratio provinces teacher in primary schools Annex 9 Page 2 of 2 9. Student/ Target Number of students per 31.0 33.8 classroom ratio provinces classroom in primary schools 10. Student/ Target Number of students per 23.2 25.0 class ratio provinces pedagogic group in primary schools 11. retention of Target Number of girls enrolled 35.9% 64.6% girls at school provinces in grade 6 / number of girls enrolled in grade 1 5 years earlier 12. Quality of Target Number of primary W: 13.9% W: 15.7 school facilities provinces schools equipped with L: 20.3% L: 24.5% drinkable water (W) or latrines (L) / total number of primary schools 13. Pre-school Target Number of children 43.1% * enrollment rate provinces enrolled in a pre-school/ total number of children aged 4-6 14. Retention Target Number of schools 59.3% * potential of provinces offering 6 grades / total schools number of schools 15. Number of Target 6358 * multigrade classes provinces Lia Target provinces 16. Enrollment Number of adults 376 998 * enrolled 17. Dropout rate Target Number of participants 40% 20% provinces who do not complete a training cycle 18. Success rate Target Number of enrollees who 91% 100% provinces succeed in final exam / number of participants to the exam * indicator will be monitored but target cannot be realistically set. ** Target will be set during mid-term review. Annex 10 Page 1 of 1 SELECTED INFORMATION IN THE PROJECT FILE I. Project Documentation World Bank/Kingdom of Morocco: Project Implementation Volumes (in French) Ministre de l'Education Nationale: Plan d'Action Sectoriel II. References Ministre Chargi de la Population 1995 Stratigie de D6veloppement Social pour la d9cennie 90 Minist&re de l'Education Nationale 1993 Analyse des determinants de la scolarisation en zone rurale au Maroc World Bank 1995a Enhancing the Participation of Women in Development (Report No.14153) World Bank 1995b Morocco: Education and Training for the Twenty-first Century World Bank 1995c Kingdom of Morocco. Country Economic Memorandum. Towards Higher Growth and Employment (Report No. 14155-MOR) World Bank 1995d Claiming the Future. Choosing Prosperity in the Middle East and North Africa World Bank 1994a Kingdom of Morocco. Poverty, Adjustment , and Growth (Report No. 11918-MOR) World Bank 1994b Schooling and Cognitive Achievements of Children in Morocco. Can the Government Improve Outcomes ? World Bank Discussion Paper No. 264 World Bank 1994c Royaume du Maroc: Ddpenses publiques. Probl6matique et perspectives (Report No. 13413-MOR) World Bank 1994d Kingdom of Morocco: Costs, Financing and Efficiency of the Education System (Report No. 11937-MOR) World Bank 1993 Kingdom of Morocco: Literacy and Schooling in Rural Areas (Report No. 12382-MOR) World Bank 1992 Investing in All the People. Educating Women in Developing Countries (EDI Seminar Paper No.45) IBRD 27640 기 MAPCㅐ 1996 IMAGING Report No: 15074 MOR Type: SAR