Libya - Supporting electricity sector reform : least cost expansion plan - updated final report : energy mix and renewable resource assessment

Libya - Supporting Electricity Sector Reform (P154606) Contract No. 7181909 - Task D: Strategic Plan for Renewable Energy Development Least Cost Expansion Plan (LCEP) - Up-dated Final Report Energy Mix and Renewable Resource Assessment 12th December 2017 Client: The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20433 Consultant: GOPA-International Energy Consultants GmbH Justus-von-Liebig-Str. 1, 61352 Bad Homburg, Germany Phone: +49-6172-1791-800; Fax: +49-6172-944 95 20 eMail: info@gopa-intec.de; www.gopa-intec.de Suntrace GmbH Grosse Elbstrasse 145c, 22767 Hamburg, Germany Phone: +49-40-767 96 38 0; Fax: +49-40-767 96 38 20 www.suntrace.de Table of Contents Page 1. Introduction 4 2. Background 6 3. Approach and Methodology 7 4. Load and Supply Characteristics 8 4.1 Load Characteristics and Demand Projections 8 4.2 Supply Projections – Baseline of Conventional Power 9 5. Areas for the LCEP 12 6. Conditions, Constrains and Inputs into LCEP 15 6.1 The LCEP Model 15 6.1.1 The LCEP Target Function 16 6.1.2 Basis Years 17 6.1.3 Solution Variables 17 6.1.4 Capacity Credit 18 6.1.5 Brief Notes on Modelling Approach 19 6.2 Inputs to the model 19 6.2.1 Demand Growth 19 6.2.2 Existing and Pipeline Projects (Conventional) 19 6.2.3 RE Technology Configurations and Sites 19 6.2.4 RE Technology Costs and Values over Time 20 6.2.5 Exogenous Assumptions – Fuel Price 23 6.2.6 Technology Configurations and Costs for New Conventional 23 6.3 Side constraints 24 6.3.1 Satisfaction of Demand 25 6.3.2 Satisfaction of Peak Load Plus Reserve Capacity 25 6.3.3 Minimum Load Of Conventional Power Plants 25 6.3.4 Short Term and Long Term and Maximum RE Capacity 25 6.3.5 Year of Commissioning for New Conventional and Renewable Configurations 27 7. Scenarios 28 8. Sensitivities 31 9. Results of Scenario and Sensitivities 32 9.1 Scenario 4 (Sc4), No RE 32 9.2 Scenario 2 (Sc2), Unlimited RE 32 9.3 Scenario 3c (Sc3c), Reference Case 33 9.4 Sensitivities 35 9.5 Summary of Results 39 10. LCEP Follow-up 42 Libya SPREL – LCEP Final Report LBY2560_TaskD_ StageI_LCEP_Updated FinalReport.docx Table of Contents Page List of Annexes Annex I - Solar and Wind Resource Annex II - Grid Connection Aspects Annex III - Potential Areas and Sites Annex IV – Information Collected Annex V – Performance of Conventional Plants Annex VI – Cost of Capital Assumptions List of Tables Table 4-1: Power plants for LCEP model – Worst case (Source: Task A) Table 4-2: Power plants for LCEP model – Best case (Source: Task A) Table 5-1: Technology configuration for LCEP Table 6-1: Main performance, cost and technical values for the RE technology configurations Table 6-2: Projection of LNG prices until 2030 (Source : Task B) Table 6-3: Summary of fuel cost projections for the LCEP Table 6-4: CAPEX and OPEX estimations for new non-RE power plants (Source) Table 6-5: Short-term capacity restrictions for the LCEP areas in MW Table 7-1: Summary of scenarios Table 8-1: Summary of sensitivities Table 9-1: Summary of scenario results Table 9-2: Summary of sensitivity results List of Figures Figure 4-1: Exemplary daily profiles of monthly average load curves (MW) Figure 4-2: Scenarios for electricity consumption until 2030 (Task A) Figure 4-3: Scenarios of GECOL’s generation and T&D (Task A) Figure 5-1: Preselected areas for the LCEP Figure 6-1: LCEP Model Figure 6-2: Long-term expansion limits of RE capacity for the LCEP Figure 9-1: Scenario 4, reflecting unlimited RE implementation of 12.35 GW until 2030 Figure 9-2: Newly installed capacity for the Reference Case Figure 9-3: Reference case: Produced energy until 2030 Figure 9-4: Cost comparison showing savings in Sc3c (reference) in compared to Sc4 (No RE) Figure 9-5: Sensitivity 1, no constrain for wind power Figure 9-6: Sensitivity 1, no constrain for wind power, produced energy until 2030 Figure 9-7: Sensitivity 2, WACC for CSP lowered to 4%, Figure 9-8: Sensitivity 2, WACC for CSP lowered to 4%, produced energy until 2030 Figure 9-9: Sensitivity 3, Fuel price variation Libya SPREL – LCEP Final Report LBY2560_TaskD_ StageI_LCEP_Updated FinalReport.docx Abbreviations CAPEX Capital Expenditures CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine CRS/CR Central Receiver System CSP Concentrating Solar Power DNI Direct Normal Irradiation DSG Direct Steam Generation ENTSO European Network of Transmission System Operators ESS Energy Storage System FLH Full Load Hours GECOL General Electric Company of Libya GHI Global Horizontal Irradiation GI Global Irradiation GT Gas Turbine HFO Heavy Fuel Oil HRSG Heat Recovery Steam Generator HTF Heat Transfer Fluid IDC Interest During Construction IEC International Electro-chemical Commission IGBT Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor IPP Independent Power Producer IRR Internal Rate of Return ISCC Integrated Solar Combined Cycle ITRPV International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic LCEP Least Cost Expansion Plan LCoE Levelized Cost of Electricity LDS Long-Duration Energy Storage LFO Light Fuel Oil LID Light Induced Degradation LLJ Low Level Jet LVRT Low Voltage Ride Through OPEX Operational Expenditures PID Potential Induced Degradation PPA Power Purchase Agreement PSP Private Sector Participation PT Parabolic Trough PV Photovoltaics RE Renewable Energies REAOL Renewable Energy Authority of Libya SCGT Simple Cycle Gas Turbine SM Solar Multiple STATCOM Static Compensators SPREL Strategic Plan for Renewable Energies in Libya TES Thermal Energy Storage TMY Typical Meteorological Year TSC Thyristor Switched Capacitors WACC Weighted Average Capital Cost WB World Bank WTG Wind Turbine Generator Libya SPREL – LCEP Final Report LBY2560_TaskD_ StageI_LCEP_Updated FinalReport.docx  -4- 1. Introduction The Least Cost Expansion Plan (the LCEP) analysis is the first step towards the preparation of a Stra- tegic Plan for Renewable Energies in Libya (the SPREL). This report describes the methods, assump- tions, processes, inputs and outcomes undertaken and found by the Consultant in order to optimize a mix of Renewable Energies (RE) for Libya until 2030 as part of Task D, Strategic Plan for Renewable Energy Development, mandated by the World Bank. In the present situation Libya power generation park is not sufficient to cover peak demand for differ- ent reasons including the lack of resources/fuel, missing spare parts, maintenance or damaged infra- structure. However, the conventional power projects, either contracted or under development, which have been put on hold due to the current political situation could, if implemented, cover the demand in the future. In principle, renewable energies (RE) do not have to step in to close supply gaps but eco- nomic perspective, energy security and long-term perspective are at least three important arguments for renewables to be considered in the future energy strategy of Libya. The LCEP will perform a first assessment of the economic perspective of implementing RE. The optimization of the LCEP can only be performed in a time and resource efficient manner when agreement, not only on the optimization method but also on the inputs, has been achieved among the parties involved. The methods, inputs and scenarios described in this report have been thoroughly discussed with the WB, GECOL and REAOL. This report compiles all relevant information on the LCEP optimization model structure, its inputs, the scenarios proposed to analyse sensitivities of the LCEP and the results of the LCEP optimization. Since the market offers many solar and wind technology combinations, the Consultant assessed tech- nical alternatives in a two-step approach. In a first step, the Consultant performed a high level qualita- tive analyses based on market and maturity of the technologies aiming to narrow down the many solar and wind technologies to those most competitive for Private Sector Participation (PSP) during imple- mentation of the LCEP. In a second step, the Consultant assessed local related aspects such as re- source, load & supply profile and grid connection. The result of this second step will be in the form of a set of the most suitable technology alternatives according to both their competitiveness in PSP acqui- sition and their suitability for the Libyan conditions. In order to have a clear picture of the RE potential in Libya the Consultant has used sites and technol- ogy configurations which are only representative in order to be able to model different RE options un- der different meteorological conditions. Simultaneously with these processes, the Consultant analysed the role of the RE in Libya and prelimi- nary concluded, together with the stakeholders, on the scenarios to be part of the optimization pro- cess. Ultimately, both the reference case and the set of scenarios were thoroughly discussed and agreed amongst the stakeholders. The set of scenarios shall represent important questions that could be raised by decision makers. An integral part of the Consultant’s analyses is the LCEP model that has been designed for the scope of this particular assignment. The Consultant has dedicated a whole section to give an overview of its formulation and its approach, as well as the inputs, assumptions and side constraints defined for the optimization and the scenarios. A number of different scenarios were simulated, varying divers input data and constrains. The results of these different scenarios are herein presented alongside with the Consultant’s conclusions and re c- Libya SPREL – LCEP Final Report LBY2560_TaskD_ StageI_LCEP_Updated FinalReport.docx  -5- ommendations. Constrains were implemented to identify the most realistic scenario as the reference case. Conclusions and recommendations are discussed with the stakeholders in order to define the fi- nal LCEP mix which will be used for the Strategic Plan Renewable Energies for Libya (SPREL). Finally the Consultant will recommend next steps to be taken by the stakeholders to maintain, update and adjust the LCEP to the changing market and technology conditions of RE. The Consultant’s analyses are partially based on the results of tasks performed by other consultants in parallel under assignment of the World Bank. Wherever the Consultant here refers to Task A, the Consultant is referring to results shared by other consultants working in parallel. Libya SPREL – LCEP Final Report LBY2560_TaskD_ StageI_LCEP_Updated FinalReport.docx  -6- 2. Background The Least Cost Expansion Plan (the LCEP) analysis is the first step towards the preparation of a Stra- tegic Plan for Renewable Energies in Libya (the SPREL). This LCEP model specification contains the main inputs, assumptions, scenarios and sensitivities used by the Consultant to optimize the electricity generation mix for Libya until 2030 – and explore the role of Renewable Energies (RE) in the country – as a part of Task D, Strategic Plan for Renewable Energy Development, mandated by the World Bank. Based on the data provided by Task A Libya has in principle sufficient oil and gas conventional power plants to match the current peak demand. However, the technical availability of this installed capacity is considerable reduced for different reasons including issues with fuel transport, missing spare parts and maintenance or damaged infrastructure. Although, further conventional capacity is currently under development (see section 4.2), there are at least three important arguments for renewables to be con- sidered:  First, there is the economic perspective. The efficiency of old conventional power plants is typi- cally low and they use fuels that could otherwise be exported. This opens a window of opportunity for RE as fuel saver as long as the costs of RE are lower than the (short-term) marginal cost of conventional plants. As Libya possess very favourable renewable energy resources, a competitive scenario is likely. This allows bringing further saving due to private sector participation (PSP) on the generation site combined with PPA contracting to allow competitive pricing schemes.  Second, there is the issue of energy security and grid stability. As most conventional power plants are located along the coast of Libya in particular remote locations in the centre and south (where solar resource conditions are most favourable), RE could be used to balance the grid and to in- crease energy security.  Third, there is the long-term perspective. Given the abundance of renewable energy resources, the increasing opportunity costs of conventional power plants and the need for efficient electricity pricing schemes, increasing the share of renewable in the power plant fleet is politically and eco- nomically strongly recommended. Typically, in order to determine the share of RE in any given grid goals in terms of the RE share, either of the total energy produced or the total peak capacity installed, in percentage are set. The Consultant will follow a different approach for this assignment following the economic rational of opportunity costs and competitive pricing. Libya SPREL – LCEP Final Report LBY2560_TaskD_ StageI_LCEP_Updated FinalReport.docx  -7- 3. Approach and Methodology The steps below provide a brief high-level description of the overall methodology applied to determine the least cost RE mix for Libya until 2030. The intention of this section is to present an overview of previous analyses undertaken by the Consultant to define the set of inputs and assumptions within this note. These analyses will be elaborated in detail in the Energy Mix and Renewable Resource As- sessment Report part of this assignment.  Review of the role of RE in Libya: A descriptive review of the current status of RE in Libya and the potential advantages of their implementation in a future generation mix;  High level qualitative analysis of the solar and wind alternatives : The result of this second step are a set of the most suitable technology alternatives according to both their competitiveness in PSP acquisition and their suitability for the Libyan conditions;  Appraisal of wind and solar resource: Review of the overall wind and solar resource based on satellite data and cross check with existing ground data for a determination of the most suitable ar- eas for implementation of solar and wind projects;  Appraisal of load and supply characteristics: The daily, weekly and seasonal load behaviour was characterized alongside with projection for the conventional power supply in Libya (existing and planned);  Grid connection alternatives: Review of existing transmission system expansion studies as well as preliminary identification of potential connection points close to areas and sites suitable for wind and solar power implementation;  Site restrictions and environmental aspects: A desktop review of potential site restrictions based on existing freeware digital mapping in order to identify potential major obstacles and availa- bility of suitable land for RE developments;  Technology configurations: Definition of configurations of solar and wind facilities which better reflect the current and future market conditions and which are highly competitive within a PSP pro- curement process. These configurations are only exemplary at this stage and not fixed for future project developments or procurement processes;  Set of areas and configurations for the LCEP optimization: Definition of a reasonable set of sites and technology configurations for preparation of performance indicators and incorporation in the LCEP model. This set of areas and configurations is only exemplary and serves the goal of in- corporating a representative picture of the performance of RE facilities in Libya; and  LCEP optimization: Set up the LCEP model together with the necessary assumptions, inputs, side constraints, scenarios and sensitivities. Run the LCEP optimization, scenarios, sensitivities and analysis of results. The methods, inputs and scenarios applied have been thoroughly discussed with WB, GECOL and REAOL in different sessions. The Consultant’s analyses are partially based on the results of tasks performed by other consultants in parallel under assignment of the World Bank. Wherever the Consultant here refers to either Task A or Task B, the Consultant is referring to results shared by other consultants working in parallel. Libya SPREL – LCEP Final Report LBY2560_TaskD_ StageI_LCEP_Updated FinalReport.docx  -8- 4. Load and Supply Characteristics There are many aspects important for integrating RE into an existing network, however in order to capture the order of magnitude and profiles of the demand that shall be satisfied by RE and for the purposes of the LCEP, the following aspects relating to load and supply were considered:  Hourly seasonal daily, weekly and annual load in Libya;  Baseline of conventional power plants existing and planned; and  Capacity factors and supply profiles of RE at different representative locations as they depend strongly on the location i.e. resources change substantially with changes thereof. 4.1 Load Characteristics and Demand Projections Figure 4-1 shows the seasonal load behaviour for the year of 2016. Load peaks not only occur in summer from 20 to 22 hours but also in winter (January) at 18 hours. An important fact is that these peaks occur at times with no daylight in both seasons, thus initially not beneficiating solar technologies without energy storage, but potentially offering a good match with wind power supply curves. 5500 5000 4500 January February 4000 Demand in MW July September 3500 3000 2500 2000 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 Time in h Figure 4-1: Exemplary daily profiles of monthly average load curves (MW) Hourly load values for the complete year of 2016 were provided in electronic format by GECOL. Libya SPREL – LCEP Final Report LBY2560_TaskD_ StageI_LCEP_Updated FinalReport.docx  -9- 1 Demand growth projections have been prepared under Task A . The demand growth has been pro- jected by Task A consultants until 2030 across two scenarios – Scenario-A representing lower de- mand growth in a case where political instability continues, and Scenario-B representing higher de- mand growth in a case where political stability allows rapid development of mega-projects leading to greater demand for electricity (see Figure 4-2). The Consultants have based and harmonized assumptions of demand on the results of the Task-A projections. Estimation of growth in hourly demand for the LCEP is based on the actual hourly load values provided by GECOL for the year of 2016 adjusted to the yearly aggregate demand assessed in Task A. Figure 4-2: Scenarios for electricity consumption until 2030 (Task A) 4.2 Supply Projections – Baseline of Conventional Power In order to optimize the LCEP it is necessary to feed the model with the current and projected compo- sition and performance of the conventional power fleet. Task A has defined this composition and per- formance in two different scenarios i.e. the worst and the best case as shown in Figure 4-3. While the best case assumes a scenario of quick recuperation of performance of conventional power plants, the worst case assumes a rather moderate one. 1 PWC, Simplified gas consumption estimate, World Bank, May 2017 Libya SPREL – LCEP Final Report LBY2560_TaskD_ StageI_LCEP_Updated FinalReport.docx  - 10 - Scenario name Under construction and Variable Existing plants Planned plants (2017- contracted plants 2030) • Each year: 4 units overdue from 1 past years + all overhauls of newly Worst due units Overhauls/ • Cleared by 2024 major • Each year: 15 units overdue from Not applicable Not applicable maintenance past years + all overhauls of newly Best due units • Cleared by 2020 2 • Resolved by 2024 Worst • None considered after Not included Fuel No constraints on fuel supply constraints considered • Resolved by 2020 No constraints on fuel supply Best • None considered after considered 3 Worst • 0% for steam turbines Not included • 0% for steam turbines • 12% to 20% for single cycle and Derating • 12% to 20% for single cycle and combined cycle gas turbines factor combined cycle gas turbines depending on historical derating and • 0% for steam turbines depending on geographical location Best location • 12% to 20% for gas turbines depending on geographic location Figure 4-3: Scenarios of GECOL’s generation and T&D (Task A) It is reasonable to assume that if RE can be deployed substantially in Libya from 2022 also the recu- peration of availability and capacity of the conventional power would be feasible. The base case of the LCEP assumes the best case of Task A. One additional scenario will deal with Task A’s worst case (see section 7). Table 4-1 and Table 4-2 set out the complete baselines of conventional power plants as integrated in the LCEP. Libya SPREL – LCEP Final Report LBY2560_TaskD_ StageI_LCEP_Updated FinalReport.docx  - 11 - Table 4-1: Power plants for LCEP model – Worst case (Source: Task A) WORST case 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Type of plant Power Station 10243 10832 10153 11555 13058 13615 13835 14185 14185 14101 13401 12801 12801 12801 12801 Existing Various Small / rented 543 513 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Steam Khoms 480 480 480 480 480 480 Derna 130 130 Tobruk 130 130 Misurata Steel 504 504 84 84 84 84 84 84 84 Gulf 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 Tripoli West 370 370 240 240 240 Benghazi North 80 80 Gas Tripoli South 500 594 594 594 594 594 594 594 594 594 94 94 94 94 94 Zwetina 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 570 570 570 570 570 Khoms 1 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 Western Mountain 936 936 936 936 936 936 936 936 936 936 936 936 936 936 936 Sarir 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 Khoms 2 (Fast Track) 0 525 525 525 525 525 525 525 525 525 525 525 525 525 525 CC Zawia 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 Benghazi North 1 915 915 915 915 915 915 915 915 915 915 915 915 915 915 915 Misurata 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 Benghazi North 2 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 Under contr. Steam Gulf 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 / contracted Tripoli West 167 668 1018 1718 2068 2068 2068 2068 2068 2068 2068 2068 Tripoli East 127 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 Gas Ubari 624 624 624 624 624 624 624 624 624 624 624 624 624 Misurata 320 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 Tobruk 185 740 740 740 740 740 740 740 740 740 740 740 Proposed Steam Tripoli East Tobruk 2 Derna 2 Benghazi West Gas Sabha Tripoli South 2 CC Misurata Mellitah Zweitina 2 Tobruk Aboukammash Table 4-2: Power plants for LCEP model – Best case (Source: Task A) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Type of plant Power Station 10243 10832 10641 12043 13546 14103 15658 18263 19463 20903 21728 22378 24028 24578 23586 Existing Various Small / rented 543 513 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 100 100 100 100 100 100 Steam Khoms 480 480 480 480 480 480 480 480 480 480 480 480 480 480 Derna 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 Tobruk 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 Misurata Steel 504 504 252 252 252 252 252 252 252 252 252 252 252 252 Gulf 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 Tripoli West 370 370 240 240 240 Benghazi North 80 80 Gas Tripoli South 500 594 594 594 594 594 594 594 594 594 94 94 94 94 94 Zwetina 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 770 570 570 570 570 570 Khoms 1 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 Western Mountain 936 936 936 936 936 936 936 936 936 936 936 936 936 936 936 Sarir 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 Khoms 2 (Fast Track) 0 525 525 525 525 525 525 525 525 525 525 525 525 525 525 CC Zawia 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 1440 Benghazi North 1 915 915 915 915 915 915 915 915 915 915 915 915 915 915 915 Misurata 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 Benghazi North 2 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 Under contr. Steam Gulf 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 1050 / contracted Tripoli West 167 668 1018 1718 2068 2068 2068 2068 2068 2068 2068 2068 Tripoli East 127 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 254 Gas Ubari 624 624 624 624 624 624 624 624 624 624 624 624 624 Misurata 320 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 Tobruk 185 740 740 740 740 740 740 740 740 740 740 740 Proposed Steam Tripoli East 700 1400 1400 1400 1400 1400 1400 1400 Tobruk 2 700 700 700 700 700 700 Derna 2 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 Benghazi West 700 1400 1400 1400 1400 Gas Sabha 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 Tripoli South 2 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 855 CC Misurata 500 750 750 750 750 750 750 Mellitah 550 1100 1650 1650 1650 Zweitina 2 550 825 825 825 825 825 Tobruk 550 825 825 Aboukammash 550 825 825 Libya SPREL – LCEP Final Report LBY2560_TaskD_ StageI_LCEP_Updated FinalReport.docx  - 12 - 5. Areas for the LCEP For the purpose of obtaining a representative picture of the potential of RE in Libya the Consultant has identified representative areas for installation of RE facilities as shown in Figure 5-1. This section pre- sents an overview on how these areas were defined and the exemplary sites considered therein. NOTE: Sites and technology configurations performed by the Consultant within this analysis are only representative in order to model the RE potential in different regions in Libya and in no case substitute proper site selection and feasibility studies. Technologies and sites part of an international tender pro- cess shall be defined with specific studies in order to obtain the best value for money for each case. Libya SPREL – LCEP Final Report LBY2560_TaskD_ StageI_LCEP_Updated FinalReport.docx  - 13 - Figure 5-1: Preselected areas for the LCEP In order to be able to estimate key performance indicators of representative solar and wind configura- tions at potential areas in Libya the Consultant has: a. Performed a high level qualitative analysis of the solar and wind alternatives in order to config- ure a set of representative technology alternatives and technology configurations which will al- low for simulation and estimation of key performance indicators, as well as cost indicators, to be entered into the LCEP such as energy yield, supply profiles, efficiency, capacity factors, CAPEX and OPEX (see Table 6-1); Libya SPREL – LCEP Final Report LBY2560_TaskD_ StageI_LCEP_Updated FinalReport.docx  - 14 - b. Appraised the Libyan wind and solar resource identifying within the areas selected the regions with suitable wind and solar resource. This appraisal included the existing studies and available ground measurement data; c. Preliminarily reviewed grid connection alternatives based on existing transmission system ex- pansion studies and potential connection points close to areas and sites suitable for wind and solar power implementation. Distances to substations were roughly estimated in order to add CAPEX for transmission connection (see section 6.2.4); d. Assumed that water availability will not be considered a major issue since CSP plants will be equipped with dry cooling systems; e. Verified area availability for the different technology configuration. Whereas the area available at some sites is suitable for PV, CSP and wind configurations other areas are only suitable for one or two technologies. For the case of solar technologies larger areas were considered for CSP due to the storage capability and hence the larger solar field. In general, areas considered for the LCEP shall be large enough to reduce issues related to exclusion due to environmental aspects (e.g. natural reserves) or land use (e.g. areas reserved for oil activities); f. Verified site restrictions and environmental aspects by means of a desktop review of potential site restrictions based on existing freeware digital mapping aiming to identify potential major ob- stacles and availability of suitable land for RE developments; and 2 g. Prepared a set of representative sites and technology configurations (see Annex III, Table 3-1) to be implemented in the LCEP model in the form of performance and cost data of solar and wind options in Libya. This data was calculated by means of simulation of technology configura- tions at the sites selected. Table 5-1: Technology configuration for LCEP RE Technology Alternative Technology Configuration PV  Crystalline / Thin film (CdTe)  50 and 100 MW ac fix mounted and  Fixed mounted / One axis tracked 1-axis tracked with p-Si modules  Central and string inverter configurations depend- and central inverter; ing on the size  One configuration crystalline fixed  Li-Ion Long-duration Energy Storage (3 hours) mounted of 50 MWac and 3 hours for the site in Sebah for comparison purposes Wind  Upwind / 3 blades rotors / horizontal axis  50 MW wind park; 2 MW turbines,  Onshore 90 m hub height, 90 m diameter;  Hub heights: 80 – 120 m  100 MW wind park; 3.5 MW tur-  Rotor diameters: 90 – 136 m bines; 110/120 m hub height; ap-  Site classification II and III prox. 120 m diameter.  Direct drive / gearbox  Double Feed Induction Generator (DFIG) / Fully rated converter type (Type 3 and Type 4) CSP  Parabolic trough with thermal oil as HTF and mol-  100 MWgross PT and Molten Salt ten salt TES tower with TES of 7 to 10 FLH  Central Receiver Systems with molten salt as HTF (techno-economic optimization of and TES SM and TES capacity);  Air cooled condenser system  100 MWgross PT and molten salt tower with TES of 13 to 15 FLH (base load configuration) 2 Sites defined within this assignment are only exemplary to appraise presentative performance data of RE in different areas of Libya. This assignment does not intend to select sites for any type of investment or feasibility thereof. Libya SPREL – LCEP Final Report LBY2560_TaskD_ StageI_LCEP_Updated FinalReport.docx  - 15 - RE Technology Alternative Technology Configuration Battery  Li-Ion battery of Long-Duration energy Storage  Li-Ion modules of 10 MW and 7 hours In addition to this and following GECOL recommendation that a share of RE facilities may be installed preferably more in the south of the overall transmission and distribution grid (e.g. in the southern cen- tres of the two main North-south branches of the grid), representatives areas for the south i.e. Thala and Jagboub were incorporated in the LCEP in agreement with GECOL and REAOL. 6. Conditions, Constrains and Inputs into LCEP This section presents the description of the LCEP model and the inputs, assumptions and constraints part of the optimization process. It is not the intention to describe herein the detail of the formulation and the code used for the MATLAB tool as this will require a separate dedicated document which is not the purpose of this assignment. 6.1 The LCEP Model The Consultant’s LCEP model is an energy system model which allows the determination and the d e- velopment of electricity supply systems based on a least cost optimization approach. The model ap- proach is applicable to various supply systems with different background conditions. Therefore the model is able to consider renewables as well as conventional power plants. The determination of the least cost electricity supply systems is significantly dependent on the available input parameter to the model. Mainly the model needs information on:  Existing or planned installed capacities of supply systems;  Technical and economic characteristics of electricity generating configurations;  Hourly time series of renewable power generation (in spatial resolution); and  Electricity demand (in temporal resolution). Figure 6-1: LCEP Model Libya SPREL – LCEP Final Report LBY2560_TaskD_ StageI_LCEP_Updated FinalReport.docx  - 16 - The Consultant’s LCEP model is programmed in a modular structure, in which each supply technolo- gy/unit is represented by an independent module which is characterized by technical and economic specifications. The optimization relies on a perfect foresight modelling approach. The LCEP model is implemented in the software MATLAB, using a mixed-integer linear optimization approach and has been developed for the conditions of the scope of this particular assignment. The model has been tested for different cases within this assignment to check the validity of its results. A full validation of the model can only be done by running the same data with a similar model and com- paring the results. If necessary, such task is to be implemented by a third party under a separate as- signment. Due to the consideration of fluctuating behaviour renewable configurations, it is necessary to consider a high temporal resolution for the analysis of operation of suppliers in the LCEP model. The optimiza- tion of the Libyan generation system relies on an hourly basis of 8,760 hours per year. Although, the model can cover that time span and resolution, depending on the complexity of the power system, the expansion horizon is subdivided into optimization horizons of 6-8 years. Parts of the results are stored for the final solution and some of them are used for the next optimization horizon. 6.1.1 The LCEP Target Function The LCEP will be based on the minimization of CAPEX and OPEX of the solar and wind mix for Libya by means of a target function that includes these parameters together with performance data of each technology configuration such as capacity and energy production. In parallel, the target function mini- mizes the costs of stock and planned conventional power plants, but the overall focus is still on the op- timization of the solar and wind mix for Libya. The target function is defined as: 2030 8760