Uganda - Economic memorandum

RESTRICTED FIE COPY Report No. AF-53 This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations. They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION ECONOMIC MEMORANDUM ON UGANDA October 25, 1966 Africa Department  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS U.S. $1 = E.A. Shillings 7. 14 (New Uganda Shillings) E.A. Shillings 1 = U.S. $0. 14 L 1 = $2. 80  ECONOMIC MEMORANDUM ON UGANDA TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Basic Data Introduction 1 Political Background 1 Recent Economic Developments 2 Outlook for 1966/67 6 Longer-Range Prospects 7 Appendix - Statistical Tables INTRODUCTORY NOTE This memorandum is based on the findings of a mission which visited Uganda for a week in July/August 1966, composed of Messrs. Howard E. Tolley and Colin Bruce.  UGANDA BASIC DATA 1/ Area: 91,134 sq. miles (land area 75,000 sq. miles) Population (1966): 7.74 million Rate of growth: 2.7% p.a. Population density (per sq. mile of land area): 103 Political status: Independent since October 9, 1962 Member of Commonwealth Gross National Product (1965): t285 million ($800 million) GNP per capita (1965): t38 ($106) Gross Domestic Product at factor cost (1965): P275 million ($770 million) of which Monetary product: 194 million Non-monetary product: E81 million Annual rate of growth (constantl964l prices): 1965 1960-65 Total GDP 3.9 Monetary 5.0 4.5 Non-monetary 2.0 2.3 Percent of GDP (1965) 100 Agriculture 59 Industry 11 Transport and commerce 17 Other sectors 13 Percent of GDP at market prices: 1965 1960-65 Gross fixed capital formation 11.1 9.5 Gross domestic savings 12.4 12.4 Balance of payments resource surplus 1.3 2.9 Net factor income payments 1.8 1.2 Government current revenue (fiscal years) 17.0 16.9 Resource surplus as % cf savings 10.5 23.2 1/ Some of the figures listed are based on revised estimates obtained by the October-December 1966 Economic Mission and hence do not always agree with the Basic Data in Memorandum AF-53.  Basic Data (Continued) Money and credit Relationship to large monetary or customs area: Member of East African corn market and of Sterling are Rate of change p.a. B million 1960-65 Bank notes in circulation (Dec. 31, 1966) 13.3 Commercial bank deposits (Dec. 31, 1965) 35.0 +21% Demand 24.4 +22% Time and Saving 10.6 +19% Commercial bank credits 37.1 +21% Cost of living index + 3.2% 1965/66 Rate of change p.a. Public sect-or operations (E million) 1960/61-1965/66 Government current revenue 49.3 +13.3% Government current expenditures 54.0 +15.3% Government savings - 4.7 CGovernment capital expenditures 8.0 + 7 8% Public sector saving - 2.5 Public sector investment 12.3 June 30 Average External public debt (US$ million) 1966 19;.,0..65 Total debt outstanding 213.4 136.6 Uganda debt 121.8 74.0 One-third of EACSO debt 91.6 62.6 Total annual debt service 10.4 6.8 Uganda debt 5.9 2.9 One-third of EACSO debt 4.5 3.9 Debt service ratio, percent 4.6 4.0 Rate of change p.a. Balance of payments (E million) 1965 1960-65 Merchandise exports 68.8 + 8.0 Merchandise imports 62.5 + 8.2 Net invisibles - 7.7 + 4.8 of which net factor income payments - 5.2 +49.0 Balance on current account - 1.4 Average 1965 1960-65 Commodity concentration of exports 65% 67% (coffee and cotton)  .Basic Data (Continued) Dec. 31 Average 1966 196(.. 65 Gross foreign exchange reserves L million 6.3 2903 Months' imports 1.2 6.5 IMF position (US$ million) Jan. 31 1967 1964/65 Quota 32 25 Drawings - - External financial assistance (US$ million) Average 1960-1965 1965 Commitments Disbursements Commitments Disbursements Total 12.636 l0.O5 14h.112 6.094 Soft assistance 1.17 1.009 13.650 Hard assistance 11,122 9.396 12.236 2.444 Major donors Germany .952 - 5.712 - U.K. 9.484 8.709 8.400 4.320 AID .800 .296 - 1.774 IBRD 1.400 1.400 -  BASIC ECONOMIC DATA UGAMDA Area: 91,000 square miles (land area: 75,000 square miles) Population (1965): 7.6 million (including 97,000 non-African) Rate of growth (1948-6h): 2.5% Population density (per sq. mile): 101 Population density, per sq. mile of cultivated land: 607 Political status: Independent, Member of Commonwealth since October 1962 Gross national product (1965):