This volume d e a l s w i t h key i s s u e s of T r a a s p o r t Policy. It wa.s prepared by M r . Y i l f r e d OGren who was granted lea.ve from t h e Brookings I n s t i t u t i o n t o s e r v e a s a member of t h e i'iission. m e r e p o r t i s based on i n v e s t i - g a t i o n i n Iiidia. i n t h e p e r i o d I!ovember 1?6k t o Februa-y 1765. The w r i t i n g vras conrple t e d i n June 1965. E d i t o r i a l r e v i s i o n s ha,ve been mz.de s i n c e t h a t d a t e . Pape -I- 1. 10 Introduction Accomplishments t o Date P r o j e c t i n g Demand P o s i t i o n of t h e h . i l w a y s A. T r a f f i c and Investment B. P r i c i n g P o l i c i e s C. S h i f t s i n T r a f f i c Pa.tterns Road Transport Trends and Problems A . Gains i n Trucking B. Condition of t h e Highways C .D i s orga,nization of F r e i g h t Hauling D. S i g n i f i c a n c e of Road Transport Trends VI. Transport Coordina.ti on A. The Role of Truck Transport B. Passenger Transport Coordination C. Other Coordina,tion P ~ o b l e m s D. The Dynamics of Coordina.tion VII . Tra,nsporta,tion and Food A. A Na.tionb~ideProgram B. Concentrating t h e E f f o r t C. Economic J u s t i f i c a t i o n D. Trucks vs. Bullocks E. Grain Handling a t t h e P o r t s VIII . Cornmunica,tions t o Supplement Transport IX. The I n c r e a s i n g Costs of Urbanization X. T r a n s p o r t a t i o n and Foreign Exchange XI. blew D i r e c t i o n s f o r t h e Fourth P1a.n A. The Importance of Innovation B. Role of t h e Railways C. Development of Road Transport D. Roads f o r Food E. Other Aspects of I h r k e t i n g . F. Nachines vs Labor-Intensive P r o j e c t s G. The Bala,nce of Payments H. Minimizing Unnecessary Transport I. Organization and Administration Introduction 1. The goals t h a t a r e c r i t i c a l t o 1 n d i a . I ~economic g r m t h ?dl1 depend on t h e a b i l i t y t o move l a r g e a d d i t i o n a l volumes of t r a f f i c . h r t h e r i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n w i l l r e q u i r e t h e c a p a c i t y t o d e l i v e r coal, i r o n ore, cheinicals, cement, and o t h e r raw m a t e r i a l s where and $]hen t h e y a r e needed. A g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y w i l l be i n c r e a s e d o n l y if f e r t i l i z e r s , seed, sprays and o t h e r i n p u t s can be d e l i v e r e d a t t h e r i g h t time, and i f produce can be t r a n s p o r t e d t o urban consumers. Costs of production and t h e competitive p o s i t i o n of I n d i a n e x p o r t s m i l l be a f f e c t e d significantly by t r a n s p o r t c a p a b i l i t i e s and c o s t s . Even programs of t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e , h e a l t h , and educa:ti on presuppose t h e a b i l i t y t o reach t h o s e who need h e l p and t o u s e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a s a means of communication. 2. It i s t h e purpose of t h i s c h a p t e r t o a s s e s s t h e c a p a b i l i t i e s of t h e e x i s t i n g t r z n s p o r t system, t o i n d i c a t e t h e dimensions of f u t u r e demand, and t o s u g g e s t what t r a . n s p o r t a t i on p o l i c i e s and programs w i l l be r e q u i r e d t o ma.ke development i n o t h e r s e c t o r s f e a s i b l e . 1 - 1 . Accomplishments t o Dete 3. 1ndia.n accomplishments i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a r e impressive. Since 1950, p o r t capa.city and r a i l f r e i g h t t r a , f f i c have more than doubled, t r u c k tramsport has quadrupled, and t h e mileage of all-weather roads i s 50 p e r c e n t g r e a t e r tha.n it was a deca.de ago. Et-ery da.y t h e Indian railways apera.te 10,000 t r a i n s , l o a d h a l f a m i l l i o n t o n s of f r e i g h t , and c a r r y f i v e m i l l i o n passengers. Jet, a i r l i n e r s s e r v e t h e major c i t i e s , and a i r passenger volume i s f o u r times wha.t i t was f i v e y e a r s ago. Almost a l l long-distance f i r s t cle.ss ma.il goes by plane. O some main high~..ra,ys i r conditioned buses provide f r e q u e n t s e r v i c e n a and f a s t schedules, w h i l e truclts a r e c u t t i n g t r a n s p o r t time t o a f r a c t i o n of r a i l time f o r a. bride va.riety of goods over d i s t a n c e s t h a t commonly range up t o a thouse.nd kilometers. The l a , t e s t a d d i t i o n s t o t h e t r a n s - p o r t network a r e more than 1,500 kilometers of p i p e l i n e s t h a t a r e moving both crude o i l and petroleum products. 4. A s i z a b l e i n d u s t r i a l establishment has been created t o help s u s t a i n t h e s e t r m s p o r t t r e n d s . I n d i a produces a l l of i t s r a i l wagons, steam locomotives, t r u c k s , buses and automobiles. Other economic support includes a graving d i e s e l and e l e c t r i c locomotive output, t i r e manu- f a c t u r e , b i c y c l e production, petroleum r e f i n i n g , s h i p b u i l d i n g , and a, g r e a t v a r i e t y of s e r v i c e i n d u s t r i e s . Together t h e t r a n s p o r t system and i t s supply i n d u s t r i e s p r o v i d e f o u r t o f i v e m i l l i o n jobs. TABLS 1. The Indian Transport System, 1964 Basic Transport F a c i l i t i e s Highways Surfaced Unsurf aced iiai11,~a.y . 1 t e s 0 21 Broad gauge e K t e r gauge Na.rrma gz.uge Airports (number of u n i t s ) Pipelines Number of Units Railway locomotives 11,541 (10,810 steam) Passenger coaches Freight csrs Hotor vehicles Trucks Buses Passenger c c r s Aircraft Merchant F l e e t ( m i l l i o n tons) Coastal v e s s e l s Overseas v e s s e l s -/ a ikpected t o be completed by t h e end of Fourth Plan. - b/ 1960/61. 5 These accomplishments have been made p o s s i b l e by a l l o c a t i n g r a v e r y s u b s t a n t i a l p r o p o r t i o n of I n d i a ' s resources f o t~ a n s p o r t a t i o n . During t h e f i r s t t h r e e p l a n p e r i o d s t h e percentage of development funds made a v a i l a b l e f o r t r a n s p o r t and communlcatioris tras g r e a t e r than f o r any o t h e r purpose. Transport was approximately 25 p e r c e n t of t h e t o t a l p u b l i c s e c t o r irlvesttlent i n each of t h e t h r e e p1a.n p e r i o d s . T o t a l p u b l i c funds s p e n t f o r this purpose amounted t o $7.8 b i l l i o n i n f i f t e e n y e a r s . Third P l a n expenditures were a t t h e r a t e of $800 m i l l i o n p e r year. And of t h e t o t a l investment, i n both p u b l i c a,nd p r i v a t e s e c t o r s , t r a n s p o r t accounted f o r 17 p e r c e n t i n t h e F i r s t Plan, 20 p e r c e n t i n t h e Second, and 1 9 p e r c e n t i n t h e Third. 6. The major focus of t h e p u b l i c s e c t o r program h a s been on railways. I n t h e Third Plan, r a i l expenditures were 61 p e r c e n t of a l l t r a n s p o r t outlays, while 2 p e r c e n t went f o r roads and road t r a n s p o r t . ! 4 , P o r t development axcounted f o r 6 p e r c e n t of t h e program. These t h r e e items made up 9 1 p e r c e n t of t h e p u b l i c s e c t o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n plan, with t h e remaining 9 p e r cent going t o i n l a n d :.rater tra.nsport, shipping, avia-tion, tourism and p i p e l i n e s . 7. Foreign a i d funds f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t o t a l e d 31317 m i l l f o n i n t h e f o u r t e e n years, 1949-63. The World Bank accounted f o r inore than h a l f t h i s amount, and t h e railways received more than 70 p e r c e n t of a s s i s t a n c e from a l l sources. 6. f A s a r e s u l t of t h e s e c ~ n c e n t r a ~ t eed f o r t s , few n a t i o n s can p o i n t t o g r e a t e r accomplishment i n s o s h o r t a time. But i n macy a r e a s t h e q u a l i t y of Indian t r a n s p o r t i s s t i l l low, and a.vailable c a p a c i t y i s s t i l l f a r from adequate t o cope tsith p r o s p e c t i v e development t a s k s . Roads and road t r a n s p o r t a r e poor compared t o standards i n most ma.j o r c o u n t r i e s of t h e world. The rum-1 economy i s l a r g e l y i s o l a t e d from t h e mainstream of I n d i a n economic and s o c i a l progress. Low y i e l d s i n a g r i c u l t u r e and t h e s h o r t supply of food a r e r e l a t e d both obviously and i n s u b t l e nays t o t h e i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y of t h e v i l l z g e and t o d i f f i c u l t i e s of ma.rkeeting. Indian business i s saddled by v e r y l a r g e i n v e n t o r i e s due t o r e c u r r i n g t r a n s p o r t shortages. P o r t congestion con+,inues t o hs.mper t r a d e , while urban t r a f f i c i n C~xlcutt2, Bombay, Delhi and o t h e r c i t i e s ef poses incree.singl;r s e r i o u s problems. The c u m u l a t i ~ ~ e f e c t s of t h e s e conditions or, t h e I n d i a n economy a r e high c o s t s and l o s t o p p o r t u n i t i e s and a brake on t h e momentum of t h e development e f f o r t . TABU 2 . Transport Develop e n t Expenditures, F i r s t Three Five-Year Plans, a 7 (Crores of rupees) Actual Anticipated ExpencEtures Expenditures Purpose F i r s t Plan Second Plan Third Plan b/ ~a.ilwa,~s- Road and rosd t r a n s p o r t Inlatld water t r a n s p o r t P o r t s and harbors Shipping C i v i l a i r trmsport Other t r a n s p o r t Total - Percentage ibil.ways Roa.ds and road t r a n s p o r t Inland l a t e r t r a n s p o r t P o r t s and harbors Shipping C i v i l a i r tramsport Other t r a n s p o r t Total Tramsport a s percent of t o t e l p u b l i c expenditures Source : De ta. supplied b y t h e P l a n n i ~ g Commission, Govermnent or" India., 1966. -/ a Public s e c t o r . - b/ Exclusive of expenditures met by Depreciation IZeserve Fund and expenditure on inventopies. ?Istimated t o t a l railway expenditure f o r Third Five-Year Plan i s 2s. 15&1crores. TABLE 3. Foreign Aid f o r Transport ( I n m i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s ) Purpose I%ilvays Highway Transport Ports C i a i l Avi2,tion Source : Derived c h i e f l y from t h e Agency f o r 1 n t e r n a t i o n a . l Development, l Countrg Assistance program, I n d i a ( o f f i c i ~ Use only), August 196k9 . pp 4/30-4/31. - a/ Incl:..?es $34 m i l l i o n from Canada and Austrsliz.. - b/ C o r p ~ * i s e s r o j e c t loans extended by A I D t o f i n a n c e imports of p automo Live m a n ~ ~ f a c t u r i nequipment and t r u c k s and a u t o n o b i l e s g . - c/ !! c r e d i t extended by IDA. - d/ I n c l ~ d e sIG-rl 2nd IBRD c r e d i t s . 1. 1 1 P r o j e c t i n g 3ema.nd 9 I n c r e a s i n g popula.tion a.nd econcmic a c t i v i t y continue t o expand t h e vohirne oj' p z , a s a ~ g e rand f r e i g h t t r a f f i c . Since 1959, t h s i n c r e a s e i n f r c i g h t h a been t h r e e t i n e s a s r 2 p i d a.s t h e r i s e i n n a t i c n a l income. The slow-dcnm i n production d t v i n g 1964 reduced t h e r a t e of t r a f f i c ex- pa,nsion, b u t i n 1965 t h e long-term upward t r e n d s regained momentum. 10. The a.ttempt t o visua,lize I n d i a ' s needs and production t a r g e t s two decades hence i n d i c a t e s thc?,t t r a n s p o r t demands w i l l be sta.ggering. The e x t r z people t o be f e d , clothed a.nd housed by 1985 w i l l be e q u i v s l e n t t o adding t h e e n t i r e p o p u l a t i o n of ? J e s t e r n Europe t o t h e n e a r l y h a l f a b i l l i o n people i n India. today. A g r i c u l t u r a l production w i l l have t o more t h a n doub1.e brhat has been axhieved t o d a t e . The output of i n d u s t r y w i l l be e i g h t times g r e a t e r t h a n i t i s t0da.y. TABLE 4. Freight Traffic and Economic Trends (1950/51 = 100) T o t a l R a i l and Road National Agricultur@ Industr ia\, Freight T r a f f i c Income Production- Production- F i s c a l Year (in ton-kms.) ( i n 1948/49 Rs) Source: Data supplied by t h e manning Commission a/ *-. Crop year ending June. Base year = 19b9/500 - b , ' Base year = 1956. Calendar years. - c/ Provisional. 1,1 The g r e a t proportion of f r e i g h t w i l l continue t o be bulk co~nnoditiessuch a s f u e l , ores, foodgrains, building materials, chemicals, and o-Lher raw materials. But t h e movement of high-valued manufactures and of perishable food products w i l l r e g i s t e r t h e most spectacular increase, The r s s u l t of these t r e n d s w i l l be t o multiply t h e t r a f f i c moving on the raj..l;,~~-ys a t t h e same time t o make road, a i r , water and p i p e l i n e trans- 3~13. l p o r t c ~ i t i c a t o successful handling of t h e t o t a l load. 12 . Growth of population and incomes w i l l multiply t h e volume of passenger t r a v e l . The i s o l a t i o n of the v i l l a g e s w i l l have t o be over- come t o a major degree by all-weather roads and through increased owner- s h i p of bicycles, motorcycles, and motor scooters. The mechanization of a g r i c u l t u r e w i l l hasten the displacement of bullock c a r t s by farm pick-up trucks and t r a c t o r s , and bus t r a n s p o r t w i l l be required t o connect major communities. The extension of i n t e r c i t y s e r v i c e s by j e t and l a t e r by short-haul d i r e c t - l i f t a i r c r a f t w i l l multiply dependence on a f r t r a v e l and the s i z e of t h e a i r l i n e network. 13. The railway system w i l l have t o be q u i t e d i f f e r e n t from what it i s today. Abandonment of l i g h t l y t r a v e l e d branch l i n e s and ot'ner unecono- mic routes w i l l s u b s t a n t i a l l y reduce t h e present mileage. I3us and t r u c k s e r v i c e w i l l have t o be s u b s t i t u t e d , e i t h e r by the railways themselves or by bus and t r u c k companies. High-density l i n e s connecting major c i t i e s w i l l be e l e c t r i f i e d , with d i e s e l e l e c t r i c locomotives operating on l e s s e r routes. For general f r e i g h t t r a f f i c a nationwide system of t r a n s p o r t containers w i l l be needed, interchangeable among rzZ1 f l a t c a r s , trucks, ships and cargo a i r c r a f t , l.4. I n addition t o f l e e t s of trucks and buses operated i n i n t e r c i t y service, a much g r e a t e r number of motor vehicles w i l l be r e q ~ i r e dt o serve Indian business and a g r i c u l t u r e , It w i l l take a million trucks t o fill t h e needs of urban r e t a i l trade, t o supply r u r a l community and farm requirements, t o d i s t r i b u t e food and other products t o the c i t i e s , and t o c a r r y manufactures t o r e t a i l o u t l e t s . Automotive t r a n s p o r t w i l l be a major source of investment, employment, and resource development. 15 The volume of f o r e i g n t r a d e and t r a v e l w i l l be a t much higher l e v e l s than today, TaJithin a decade supersonic j e t s w t l l bring India with- i n two t o f o u r hours of European c a p i t a l s , and within s i x hours of Nw e York. The e f f e c t s of supersonic f l i g h t , coinbined with expanded h o t e l and r e s o r t accommodations, w i l l be a s u b s t a n t i a l r i s e i n t h e volume of tourism. For India has a g r e a t v a r i e t y of h i s t o r i c and scenic a t t r a c t i o n s t h a t can produce s u b s t a n t i a l dividsnds when t h e favorable trends i n a i r transport technology a r e combined with a systematic development of t o c r i s t p o t e n t i a l s . 16. By 1985, commerce through Indian p o r t s w i l l be a f f e c t e d t o a major degree by higher l e v e l s of l i v i n g i n nations t h a t were j u s t emerging i n t h e 196ots. Economic development i n Asia and elsewhere w i l l mean the m u l t i p l i c a t i o n of t r a d e i n goods of a l l kinds. Reduction of b a r r i e r s t o trading t r i l l g r e a t l y expand t h e volume of i n t e r n a t i o n a l t r a f f i c o 1 7- This picturo of the India of twenty years hence implies tremen- dous changes i n t r a n s p o r t c a p a b i l i t i e s . But it i s necessary t o look no more than f i v e years ahead t o see t h e dimensions of the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n problems t o come. It i s estimated t h a t by t h e end of the Fourth Plan period i n 1970/71, t h e r e w i l l be a 55 per cent increase i n r a i l f r e i g h t volume over 1965/66. The e x t r a load w i l l amount t o lam i l l i o n tons. Truck t r a n s p o r t is expected t o increase three--fold, with an added load of 77 million tons. Thus the Indian road and r a i l system, which i s carry- ing about 245 m i l l i o n tons today, w i l l be faced with the t a s k of moving some 4 4 m i l l i o n tons f i v e years from now. .0 18. These a r e the c e n t r a l f a c t s t h a t measure I n d i a ' s f u t u r e t r a n s - p o r t problems. They make it c l e a r t h a t t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t a s k i s f a r beyond t h e c a p a b i l i t i e s of the e x i s t i n g system, and t h a t heroic e f f o r t s w i l l be required if t r a n s p o r t i s n o t t o s t a l l t h e development e f f o r t , Under the circumstances, it would be i r o n i c i f e f f o r t s were t o be made t o hamper the growth of urgently needed road t r a n s p o r t , o r t o Irprotecttst h e railways from competition. Yet pressures a r e being exerted f o r p r e c i s e l y t h i s approach a s t h e Indian t r a n s p o r t system f a c e s i t s g r e a t e s t t e s t . P o s i t i o n of t h e Railways 19. The challenge i s t o a s s u r e tha.t t r a n s p o r t p o l i c i e s adopted norr make i t p o s s i b l e t o accommodate the burdens +&at economic development w i l l c r e a t e i n t h e next f i v e y e a r s and beyond. The railway. system i s t h e major c a r r i e r of f r e i g h t and passengers toda,y. '..hat i s t h e condition of t h e system, what s t e p s a r e being taken t o meet f u t u r e r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s , and what s h i f t s i n p o l i c y w i l l be required? A. T r a f f i c and Investment 20 . The Indian Railways ha.ve expanded t h e i r operations almost continuously over t h e p a s t decade and a h a l f . I n t h e l a s t fourteen years t h e y have a,ccommodated a 107 p e r cent incpea,se i n tons o r i g i n a t i n g and a. 45 p e r cent i n c r e a s e i n passenger t r a f f i c . From 1950 t o 1960, t o t a l f r e i g h t tonnage 5ncreased 6.0 p e r c e n t annually, and from 1960 t o 1965 t h e r e was a. f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e of 6 p e r cent annually. The nmber of passer,gers increased a.t a r a t e of 2 .& p e r cent a, year during t h e decade of t h e fiftiss, and 6.3 p e r cent p e r year from 1960 t o 1965, Altogether during the 'Third Plan, t h e r a i l f r e i g h t t r a f f i c increa,se i s estima,ted a t 52 i n i l i i o n tons, o r 33 p e r cen.t. 21. The Third Plan years s2x both periods of excess demand and a -- s h o r t e r i n t e r v a l of below-capacity operations. I n 1962/63, tons originat- 1 i n g on t h e railways increased 1 p e r cent over t h e previous year, and t h e r e was a s e r i o u s shortage of r a i l vagons. The r z p i d i n t r o d u c t i o n of new i n d u s t r i a l output was p r i m a r i l y responsible, but t h e s i t u a t i o n was aggra.- vated by t h e build-up of inventories by i n d u s t r i a l customers who increased t h e i r orders t o a s s u r e t h a t t h e i r e s s e n t i a l needs would be met. Then, i n t h e f i r s t s i x months of 1961c/65, ra.ilwag t r a f f i c was down h a l f a m i l l i o n tons from t h e same period of t h e previous year. Coal and s t e e l t r a f f i c f e l l 2.5 m i l l i o n tons. By mid-hTovember t h e r e were 20,000 i d l e r a i l c a r s , The currefit y e a r may s e e only a modest 3 million-ton i n c r e a s e i n t r a f f f c compared t o e ~ ~ r l i e s t i h a t e s of 1 7 m i l l i o n a d d i t i o n a l tons. r 22. A s l m r e r ra.te of i n c r e a s e i n economic a x t i v i t y has elitaineted - customary c o r p l a i n t s a.bou-1; delays i n g e t t i n g r a i l wagons. The l a r g e govern- ment u s e r s of r a i l s e r v i c e a l l express s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h t h e movement of coal, i r o n and s t e e l , foodgrains, and o t h e r commodities, and these s e n t i - ments a r e echoed by l a r g e shippers i n t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r . llany i n d u s t r i a l i s t s express a f e e l i n g of n o s t a l g i a f o r t h e days when business was s o good t h a t r a i l . s e r v i c e was bad. TABLE 5. Projected T r a f f i c i n t h e Fourth Plan Period I. Freight T r a f f i c on Railways I4illions of Tons Commodity 1945-66 1979-71 Coal 68.5 108.1 S t e e l %/ Cement General goods Iron o r e f o r export Other goods Total A l l goods (In b i l l i o n s of ton-km. ) 1 1 . F r e i g h t T r a f f i c on Roads I:!illions of Tons - Commodity 1962-61 lT0-71 Coal, i r o n ore, cement, petroleum, limestone Other goods Total Tvpe of ilovement B i l l i o n s of Ton-Krn. Intercity traffic lh lr2 i ~ n t r a c i t traffic Total Source: Railway t r a f f i c d a t a supplied by t h e Planning Comission, Government of India, 1966; road t r a f f i c d a t a from Planning Commission, Programs of Development of Transport and Communications i n t h e ~ o u r t h Plan, February 1965, pp. 5-6. -7 ' Raw materials and f i n i s h e d products. 236 By t h e end of 1964 t h e backlog of t r a f f i c awaiting r a i l shipment had been reduced t o a p r a c t i c a l minimum of two t o three days, and i n 1966 it seemed l i k e l y t h a t India would move i n t o t h e Fourtn Plan e r i o d with f reight-carrying capacity " j u s t nominally ahead of demandu. ~7 Tha slower r a t e of economic progress was n o t t h e only f a c t o r t h a t had eased t h e poaition of t h e railways. Shippers, more confident about r a i l d e l i v e r i e s , were drawing more heavily on the inventories they had b u i l t up d u r h g t h e previous two years. In addition, t h e railways were u t i l i z i n g equipment more e f f i c i e n t l y , thanks both t o t h e l a r g e number of d i e s e l locomotives coming i n t o s e r v i c e and t o improved railway operating practices. Tfiere was a l s o a s u b s t a n t i a l increase in new wagon production. In t h e f i r s t t h r e e years of the Third Plan, annual prodilction of wagons increased from 19,100 t o 32,000, and by e a r l y 1965 t h e proportion of goods t r a f f i c hauled by d i e s e l and e l e c t r i c power had increased t o 38 per cent. TABLE 6. Trends i n Railway Traffic, 19.50-65 (In millions) Freight Passengers I - - Year Tons Ton-Km. Total Number Pass. -.Km, Average Annual Rate of Increase i n Per Cent Source: -- Ministry of Railways, Government of India, Indian Railwayss 1963-61r, pp. 23 and 29; Indian R a i l w a m pp. 1 6 2 -/ Februarya t1966,Itspeech Introducing t h eblinistry 1 S,K. P i l , 15 Government of India, Railway Budget f o r 1966-.67,11 of Railways, pp, 5. It was a l s o indicated t h a t f o r some flows of t r a f f i c i n c o a l and i r o n . ore, "the margin of t r a n s p o r t a v a i l a b i l i t j r over demand w i l l be somewhat more 'I 24. The railways a r e continuing t o d i e s e l i z e and double t r a c k t o increase capacity on the most heavily used routes connecting Delhi, Madras, Bombay and Calcutta, a s w e l l a s Assam. In 1966 the e n t i r e route between Calcutta and Bombay w i l l be doubled, with e l e c t r i c t r a c t i o n from Calcutta t o Kanpur. A t o t a l of 2,200 kilometers of new l i n e s were completed during t h e Third Plan, l a r g e l y t o accommodate i r o n o r e and other mineral t r a f f i c . To improve r a i l service, 54 new passenger t r a i n s and 61 new suburban t r a i n s were introduced i n 1965 on broad-gauge l i n e s , and 69 on the meter-gauge system.&/ 25. During the Third Plan t h e f l e e t of r o l l i n g stock was augmented by 1,275 locomotives, 117,CCO wagons, and 5,600 coaches. The Railways have become nearly s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t in t h e manufacture of wagons snd coaches, with only p a r t i a l dependence on imported s t e e l . Track mate i a l s and mechanical signaling equiprrent are a l s o indigenously supplied,-2 7 26. Actual t r a f f i c u n i t s provided per kilometer of broad-gauge railway l i n e i n India show t h a t f o r a given amount of physical p l a n t t h e Indian railways provide a high degree of ~ t i l i z a t i o n . Net ton-kilometers plus passenger-kilometers were 10.2 million per broad-gaugo r o u t e kilo- meter i n 1963/64, compared t o l e s s than half t h i s amount f o r France and the United S t a t e s , but twice t h i s amount f o r Japan. Oparating expenses on t h e Indian railways were 0.5 of a cent per u n i t of t r a f f i c , compared t o 0.6 of a cent on the Japanese Nationsrl Railways and 0,6 of a cent on U.S. railways. Pricing P o l i c i e s 27. The t a s k of financing current operations of the railways became increasingly d i f f i c u l t during t h e f o u r t h year of the Third Plan, The s i t u a t i o n r e s u l t e d from a combination of increased wage payments t o compen- s a t e f o r higher c o s t s of l i v i n g and the s h o r t f a l l i n t r a f f i c . These f a c t o r s have l e d t o s e l e c t i v e r a t e increases f o r both f r e i g h t and passenger service t o bring r a t e s more closely i n l i n e with costs. Increases of 4 t o 6 per cent -/ Februarya t1965,I1Speech Introducing the Ministry Budget f o r 1965-66," 1 SeK. P i l , 18 Government of India, Railway of Railways, - Februarya t1966."Speech Introducing the 2/ S. K. P i l , 15 Government of India, Rail-gay Budget f o r 1966-67, Ministry of Railways, were introduced i n 1965 on i r o n and s t e e l , cement, limestone and ores, and t h e r e was an 8 p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e i n petroleum r a t e s . A t t h e same time, t h e d i s p a r i t y between low-rated and high-rated commoditfes :zra.s reduced by lowering r a t e s i n t h e higher brackets, ma.lnly manufactures. Passenger f a r e s Tqere a l s o r a i s e d approxima,tely 10 p e r c e n t f o r most t r i p s , t h e mejor exception beirLg s h o r t t r i p s i n t h i r d c l a s s a.nd some t a p e r i n g of v e r y long-distance r a t e s i n a l l classes., 1/ 2 8. be r a t e proposals i n 1966 included p r i n c i p a l l y a 3 p e r c e n t !w surcharge on goods r a t e s g e n e r a l l y . There was a l s o an i n c r e a s e i n r a t e s on coal, coke and s a l t on t r i p s a,bove 800 kilometers, t h e l a t t e r t o be a.ccomplisl~edby diminishing t h e t a p e r beyond t h i s d i s t a n c e . Increases were a l s o p r o ~ o s e df o r s m a l l consignments, which ha.-re been moving a t uneconomic r a t e s . &.te reductions v e r e proposed f o r a l a r g e n b e r of consumer goods, i n c l u d i n g t e a , tobacco, sugar, and medicines adjustments continued t o b r i n g about a. c l o s e r conformity behaeen t,rc?ns- z .y These p o r t c o s t s 2,nd p r i c e s . 29. I n a d d i t i o n t o i ~ c r e a s e si n r a i l ra.tes t o cover i n c r e a s e d costs, t h e questioii rney a,lso be r a i s e d whether s t i l l higher ra,tes should be charged t o zugmene r a i l earnings. If ea.rnings were increesed t5ey could be used t o f i n a n c e a.dditiona.1 l~l~provernents thus reduce t h e l a r g e and amounts of o u t s i d e c a p i t a l required f o r t h i . s pu,-pose. In the private s e c t o r i t hs-s been estimated tha.t r a t e s of r e t u r n average about 12 p e r cent. The railways lia.ve t h e opportunity through i n t e r n a t i o n a l l o a n s of azcquirii;g c a p i t a , l a t comparatively low r a t e s . Thus, while they made 5-3/4, p e r c e n t i n t e r e s t pa.yments t o t h e government, t h e y a r e under no o b l i g a t i o n t o e a r n a, h i g h e r r a t e of r e t u r n . Lefeber and Chaudhuri e s t i m a t e t h e r e t u r n on r a i l investments i n t h e Third Plan t o be no more t h a a 3.6 t o 5 p e r cent. T e Indian r r i l 3 ~ a . yi~ d i c a t e t h a t t h e r e t u r n i n n 1963/6Lj w2.s 6.7 p e r cent.17 I n c o n t r a s t , it i s stimated t h a t the r e t u r n on road t r a n s p o r t ranges from 14. t o 30 p e r cent., &/ - 1/ D e t a i l s a r e s e t f o r t h i n tillemorendurn Explaining t h e Proposa1.s f o r Adjustments i n Fares a,nd F r e i g h t -3ates f o r Coaxhing and Goods Tra,ffic i n t h e Rai111.iayB ~ d g e t ,1965-64. Issued by t h e I t i n i s t r y , of 1 ~ ~ i b r a . February 14, 1965. y~ - 2/ Xemorandum W l a i n i n g t h e Proposals f o r Adjustments i n Fares 2nd F r e i g h t Xa.tes f o r Coaching a.nd Goods Tra,ffic, To be E f f e c t i - ~ eFrom 1-4/1966. ( Idlinis t r z y of !?ail>Jay~ %.ilr.ray 3oa.rd) 1966. , - 3/ Miriis t r of 3=iilrrays, Government of India, Indian 12n ilrrays , 1963-6b, p. 82. a - 4 Louis Lefeber and M. Da-tta. Cha.udZ~uri, ttTransportation P o l i c y i n India, i n P r i c i n g and F i s cz.1 P o l i c i e s , Paul Zosens tein-Iioda.n, ed p 103. ., . 30. I n t h e highwa-y f i e l d , revenues from s p e c i a l road taxes a r e about 33 p e r c e n t h i g h e r t h a n amnual expenditures, d e s p i t e t h e f a c t t h a t t h e roads a r e not h i g h l y u t i l i z e d . I n o t h e r words, while most r a i l w a y l i n e s a r e g e n e r a l l y congested, w i t h ma.rginal cos5s r i s i n g , t h e r a t e s charged a r e low. But on t h e road system, where much of t h e mileage i s u n d e r - u t i l i z e d , r a t e s a r e high d e s p i t e t n e f a c t t h a t i m e r u n i t c o s t s could be achieved by encouraging t r a f f i c t o g r m . Thus India-n p r i c i n g p o l i c y f o r r a i l and road seem t o be t h e r e v e r s e of wha.t i o g i c would s u g g e s t . 31. \ h e n r a i l w a y r a t e s a r e t o o low t h e y n o t only reduce t h e f i n a n c i a l s t r e n g t h of t h e system, b u t encoura.ge unnecessaqj t r a v e l and lea-d t o dis- t o r t i o n s i n t h e l o c a t i o n of i n d u s t r i e s , both of which add t o t h e tramsport burden a.nd t o t h e denand f o r new capacity. Rail congestion d i d n o t materi- a . l i z e during t h e l a t t e r pa,rt of t h e Third Plan, due prima.rily t o s h o r t f a l l s i n t h e economy, b u t t h e Fourth Plan p e r i o d ma,y b r i n g a n o t h e r p e r i o d of con- g e s t i o n w i t h t h e introdu-ction of nev i n d u s t r i a l ca,pacity and e f f o r t s t o ac- c e l e r a t e farm production. Rates need t o be high enough t o a s s u r e adequ2,te earnings t o h e l p keep pace w i t h new investment requirements znd t o reduce t h e volume of unnecesssry movement o r t o encourage t r a f f i c t o s h i f t t o more economica.1 tramsport a , l t e r n a t i v e s . This mea,ns t n a t r a t e s sill have t o be r a i s e d t o increa.se t h e p r o f i t a b i l i t y of t r a n s p o r t i n g bulk commodities. According t o Lefeber and Chzudhuri, t h e e f f e c t on manufacturing c o s t s re- s u l t i n g from such i n c r e a s e s a r e exaggerated. For example, t h e value added p e r t o n of c o a l used i n ma.nufa.cturing i s la.rge, s o t h a t t h e e f f e c t of a.n i n c r e a s e i n t r a n s p o r t c o s t s 1-rould be n e g l i g i b l e . ' h e r e coe.1-consuming i n d u s t r i e s wculd be i m p o r t a n t l y a f f e c t e d , however, t h i s should encourage them t o s h i f t t o s u b s t i t u t e f u e l s . And where export p r i c e s rrrere a f f e c t e d , a d i r e c t export s u b s i d y would be prefera.ble t o t h e p r e s e n t 25 t o 50 p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n i n rai1wa.y f r e i g h t ra.tes f o r c e r t a i n e x p o r t commodities. C. S h i f t s i n Tra,ffic P a t t e r n s 32. Since railway f r e i g h t i s predominantly buUc m a t e r i a l s , t h e s e w i l l have t o provide t h e major p a r t o f r a i l earnings. A t h i r d of t n e t r a f f i c i s ~02.3.. More than h e l f of a l l commodity movements i s coal, rneta.Uk o r e s , s.nd stone. Then cement, i r o n and s t e e l , foodgrains and petroleum a.re added t o t h e l i s t , t h e s e seven ca.tegories of f r e i g h t a.ccount f o r 70 p e r c e n t of t h e r a i l w a y burden. 33. The r e l a t l v e importamce of t h e s e lola-rated bulk commodities i n the r a i l f r e i g h t t o t a l i s increasing, t h e kinds of t r a f f i c f o r which t h e ra.ilwa.ys charge h i g h e r r a t e s haxe declined. I n 1956/57, f o r example, 63 p e r c e n t of r a . i l t r a f f i c was bulk commodities, b u t by 1962/63 t h e pro- p o r t i o n of t h i s t r a f f i c had r i s e n t o 73 p e r c e n t . Almost a l l t h e g a i n s i n r a i l t r a f f i c s i n c e t h e beginning of t h e Second Plan have been i n t h e bulk c l a s s i f i c a . t i o n s . O t'ne Centra.1 and Nortnern Zonal L%ilwa.ys t h e r e w ~ a.n n s absolute d e c l i n e i n the volume of high-rated m a t e r i a l s , although t o t a l t r a f f i c increased. O t h e Eastern and Southeastern Zonal Railways 78 n and 84 p e r cent, respectively, of t o t a l t r a f f i c was i n t h e low-rate category. 34 . Among t h e high-rated commodities t h a t s h i f t e d i n l a r g e volumes t o raod t r a n s p o r t were raw cotton, o i l seeds, sugar, jute, tea, vegetable o i l s , and general provisions. 35 The shift t o road t r a n s p o r t i s a l s o i n d i c a t e d by t h e d e c l i n e i n t h e percentage of c e r t a i n commodities moved by r a i l i n r e l a t i o n t o pro- duction. For example, i n 1955/56 approximately 90 p e r cent of raw cotton production was c a r r i e d on t h e railways, canpared t o 39 p e r cent i n 1962/63. During t h e same period t h e s h a r e of t e a t h a t moved by r a i l f e l l from 85 t o 59 p e r cent, and cotton manufactures from 62 p e r cent of production t o 32 p e r cent. 36. These trends a r e a l s o i n d i c a t e d i n t h e t r a n s p o r t study of I h d r a s S t a t e , where t h e shift of farm t r a f f i c and l i g h t manufactures t o t h e road system has been e couraged by good roads and a m i n i m u m of r e s t r i c t i o n s on t r u c k transport., 9 I n t h e a r e a covered, which i s about 82 p e r cent of t h e s t a t e , t h e r a t i o of road mileage t o r a i l i s about 1 t o 1 There adre 1 . 2,942 kilometers of r a i l l i n e and 34,817 kilometers of roa.ds. About 9 2 p e r cen3/of t h e l a t t e r a r e l o c a l roads under d i s t r i c t o r v i l l a g e s u p e r vision.- O f t h e t o t a l l e n g t h of roads, two-thirds had some type of sur- face. Daily t r a f f i c d e n s i t y i n gross ton-kilometers was 2,214 p e r k i l o - meter of ra.ilway compared t o 1,932 p e r kilometer of highway. 37 For t h e railways these problems take on d i s t u r b i n g dimensions because poor roads and an inadequate supply of trucks w i l l n o t a.lways a c t a.s r e s t r a i n t s on road t r a n s p o r t development. Some observers worry tha.t t h e ra,ilwa,ys may be l e f t with t h e t r a f f i c t h a t does not pay, while t h e trucks r o l l off with everything t h a t does. But a s w i l l be seen, t h e r a i l - ways f a c e an enormous t a s k i n moving t h e heavy t r a f f i c t h a t expanding a.griculture and i n d u s t r y w i l l create. To perform t h i s t a s k w e l l t h e y w i l l f i n d i t h i g h l y beneficia.1 f o r c e r t a i n types of t r a f f i c t o s h i f t t o road r a t h e r than move by r a i l . A t t h e same time, t h e e f f o r t t o r e t a i n o t h e r types of t r a f f i c w i l l ha,ve t o be made through r a t e r e v i s i o n s a.nd s e r v i c e improvements. - 1/ JJa.tional Council of Applied Economic L%search, Regional Transport Survey of Pladras S t a t e and P o n d i c h e r q , Preliminary Report, November 1964. - 2/ The kilometer f i g u r e s a r e a s follows: n a t i o n a l highways, 19373; s t a t e highways, 1,471; d i s t r i c t roads, 11,502; other roads, 20,471. TABLE 7. Trends i n tiis P 3 t t e r n of R a i l Revenue T r a f f i c - - - - - - Year Ladated --- M i l l i o n s of TO;:~O r i g i n a t e d -- i21gh-Bated ~ota?: -t of Percen Low-Rated Traffic ~Kgh-Rated P e r c e n t of Earnings Low-Rated High-Rated - 1956-57 61.3 35.7 97 6302 36.8 39.6 60.4 1959-60 76.2 32 e8 109 69 -9 30 e l 47.2 52.8 1962-63 100.1 37.1 137.2 72 a 9 27,l 50.3 49 7 Source: Estimates based on Planning Commission da.ta. TABLE 8. D e c l i n i n g R a i l 310vements a s P e r Cent of Production P e r Cent of Tons Produced Mo~rj.npb y % . i l ,--2 , - Zommodity 1955-56 - 77 l902-~,- Cemen+, Oilseeds 3ugarca.ne 3.4 c o t t o n 21~ Tea. J u t e manufactures Cotton manufactures Source : Z a s t e r n k o n o m i s t , F e b r u ~ . r y21, 1964. From J. i~!ilmot, I n d i a n ~ - RaFlwag P r o j e c t : The Railway F r e i g h t Ra5e S t r u c t u r e of I n d i a and I t s E f f e c t on T r s f f i c and Revenues, J E L and IDA, August 2 1 7 - TABLE 9 . T r a f f i c D e n s i t y on Pla.drc..s 3 o e . d ~Compared t o Rail?,ra.jrs Gross Ton-Kilometers p e r Kilometer o f Xoute A l l railroads A l l hignwa,ys Southern 3ail1~ay. I n d i a n Government R a i l T ~ z y I\!at;iona,l highr7a.y~ Sta.te h i g h ~ a y s Major D i s t r i c t roads Otlier Dj.2 t r i c t roads Source: :'la,tisnal Council of Applied Zconomic Research, =o~.eL T r a n s p i f t 19 Survey of 1iadra.s S t a t e and Pondicherry, Prelimlnc?ry X e m , N o v e ~ ~ ~ b e r 4.. Roa,d T r a n s p o r t Trends and Problems 38. Motor t r a n s p o r t i n I n d i a , d e s p i t e ma.ny r e s % r i c t i v e burdens, c o n t i n u e s t o grow. It i s estima,ted t h a t truclcs a r e c a r r y i n g a.bout 20 p e r c e n t of t h e t o t a l road and r a i l t o n - k i l o m e t e r s , and buses ha.ve i n c r e a s e d t h e i r s h a r e of p a s s e n g e r b u s i n e s s from 23 p e r c e n t of t h e r 0 a . d - r a i l t o t a l i n 1948 t o 46 p e r c e n t today. 39 Road development between 1951 and 1961 r e s u l t e d i n a. 5 0 p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e i n t h e m i l e a g e of s u r f a c e d highwa.ys, from 97,500 m i l e s t o 1b6,500 m i l e s . By t h e end o f t h e T h i r d P l a n a n o t h e r 25,000 m i l e s of r o a d s w i l l have been a.dded. Unsurfaced roads i n t h e same p e r i o d have i n c r e a s e d by 9 5 p e r c e n t , from 151,000 m i l e s t o 29h,000 m i l e s . T h i s work h a s been f i n a n c e d through t a x revenues g e n e r a t e d by motor v e h i c l e s a.nd t h e i r use. Although t h e r e i s room f o r disagreement a s t o which of t h e s e l e v i e s can be c o n s i d e r e d charges l e v i e d e x p r e s s l y f o r highway purposes, i t i s p w s i b b t h a t c u r r e n t u s e r payments exceed t h e a n n u a l c o s t s of t h e road system, i n c l u d i n g d e p r e c i a t i o n charges. 40. T a x r a t e s have i n c r e a s e d t r a n s p o r t c o s t s and perhaps d i s c o u r a g e d b motor v e h i c l e o ~ ~ m e r s h i p ,u t e x p e n d i t u r e of pa.rt of t h e proceeds f o r road improvement h a s produced a n a p p o s i t e e f f e c t b y r e d u c i r g c o s t s of o p e r a t i o n . The n e t e f f e c t between 1950 and 1964 was an i n c r e a s e of 159 p e r c e n t i n buses and t r u c k s and 118 p e r c e n t i n p a s s e n g e r ca-rs. The c o n n t ~ y s naq i p r o d u c i n g some 60,000 motor v e h i c l e s a n n u a l l y , t h e p r o d u c t i o n of b i c y c l e s i s over a m i l l i o n p e r y e a r , and t h e o u t p u t of motorcycles and motor s c o o t e r s , w h i l e s t i l l low, i s expanding r a p i d l y . The g a i n s have been n o t a b l e , a l - though t h e v e h i c l e t o t a l i s s t i l l f a r be1or.r t h e l e v e l t h a t I n d i a ' s a r e a 2nd p o p u l a t i o n a,ppear t o r e q u i r e . ( s e e Tables 1-1and 12. ) - Gains i n Trucking 41. i The most i m p r e s s i v e g a i ~ s n r c a d t r a . n s p o r t have beer, i n truclciing. I n a l l p a r t s of t h e c o u n t r y f o o d g r a i n s , fruits and v e g e t a b l e s , ra:r c o t t o n , t e x t i l e s , machinery, i r o n a.nd s t e e l , cement, b u i l d i n g m a t e r i a l s , and p r o v i s i o n s such a s canned goods and p r o c e s s e d food a r e moving o v e r t h e road. The 2.verage h a u l f o r t e x t i l e s on t h e r o u t e from Bombay t o Phmeda.bac1 wa,s 511 k i l o m e t e r s , w h i l e ra.w c o t t o n 5ras moving 725 k i l o m e t e r s . On t h e DeUlF- Bomb~~y road, l i v e s ock and mlachinerj were moving a n a v e r a g e of approximately 1,300 k i i o m e t e r s 12 .- - 1/ Surve~ysi n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h t h e ~~ Coal Tra.nsport Stud, v e r e made ~r on r o u t e s comprising 8,000 m i l e s of t h e 15,000-mile n a t i o n a l higliv~ay systein . TABLE 10. Motor Vehicle Revenues and Highway Ekpenditures ( I n m i l l i o n s of rupees) Revenues C e n t r a l Government Fxcise t a x e s and import d u t i e s : Fuel Tires Vehicles Sub-tota.1 S t a t e Governments Vehicle t a x and f e e s S a l e s t a x on f u e l Taxes on ps.ssengers and goods Sub-tota.1 T o t a l Revenues - 2203 Expenditures C e n t r a l Government New investments E4a.intenance Sub-total S t a t e Governments e s Mw i ~ v etments Maintens nce Sub-total Total Fqenditures Source: Interna.tiona1 Bank f o r 2econstruction and Development, "Report of a. Mission t o Review Highway Tramsport Policy i n India.," December 31, 1963, Table 1. 1 TABLE 1 . lumber of I.lotor .Jehicles i n I n d i a , 1950-64 ( I n thousands) Passenger C ommercia.1 Total Cars Vehicles Motor Vehicles Per C e n t Increase 1950-19 64 117.7 - Source: United Nations, S t a t i s t i c a . 1 Yearboolc, 1957 2nd 1943. 196h d a . t ~ f r o a "T!lborldMot o r V e h i c l e Pr d u c t l o n a.nd .?egis t r a t i o n , 1963-64, I f Business 2nd Defense S e r v i c e Administration, Depa.rtment, of Commerce, January 1965. TABLE 12. Production of Plotor Vehicles, 1955-6k ( I n thousands) Passenger Cormnercial Total Cars Vehicles ibiotor V e h i c l e s 1955-56 15 4 1960- 61 26.6 1961-62 23.2 - 1962 63 26.3 1963-64 27.2 1964-65 ( 6 nos.) 15.1 Source : Government of I n d i a , %onomic Survey, 1 943-64, February 1964, Table 1.6; Governmen-t of India., Economic Surverr, 1964-65. - 42. A g r i c u l t u r e has become i n c r e a s i n g l y dependent on over-the-road t r a n s p o r t f o r t h e marketing of p e r i s h a b l e s , On t h e r o u t e from Delhi t o Bombay, f o r example, t h e l a r g e s t s i n g l e c l a s s of f r e i g h t was f r u i t s and vegetables. ApproxLmately b0 p e r c e n t of t o t a l tonnage represented products of a,griculture. Other important i t e m were ma.chinery, medicines , e t e x t i l e s , g e n e r a l p r o v i s i o n s , b u i l d i n g m a . t e r i a . 1 ~f~ r t i l i z e r s , t e a , coffee, i r o n and s t e e l . ( s e e Table 13.) 43 The remarka.ble a s p e c t of road t r a n s p o r t a t i o n accomplishments t o d a t e i s t h e f z c t t h a t growth has taken p l a c e d e s p i t e every kind of obstacle: poor roads, inadequate t e r m i n a l s , t h e high p r i c e of v e h i c l e s , high taxes, restrictive licensing policies, ce harassment of v e h i c l e operz t i o n s The ~ ~ ~ n a.t l o c a l o c t r o i and o t h e r c h e c k p ~ ~ roa,ds of I~ d i a a r e probably t h e worst of any major n a t i o n , and r e s t r i c t i o n s on motor tramsport, w h i l e f a i l i n g t o r e v e r s e t h e t r e n d s , have succeeded i n i n h i b i t i n g economic grovth, i e s p e c i a . 1 1 ~ n rura.1 a r e a s . The r e s u l t i s t h a t t h e number of t r u c k s and buses i n I n d i a , i n r e l a t i o n t o p c q u l a t i o n , i s perhaps t h e lowest of any country. There 2,re 7 v e h i c l e s p e r 10,000 i n h a b i t a n t s compared t o 2 1 i n I r a n , 146 i n t h e S o v i e t Union, a.nd 359 i n Japa-no ( s e e Ta,ble a.) R. Condition of t h e Hight~ays - 44- n O t h e 15,000 kilometers of n a t i o n a l highways t h e r e a r e l a r g e s t r e t c h e s of missing roads, missing bridges, u ~ s u r f a c e dmileage, aild s e r i o u s b o t t l e n e c k s a t rai11aa.y grade c r o s s i n g s . Eighty p e r cent of t h e n a t i o n a l highvays a r e one-lane, and many r o u t e s need widening. Nost s t a t e roads a r e i n worse condition, a.nd t h e g r e a t m a j o r i t y of f a c i l i t i e s under d i s t r i c t and 1oca.l governments a r e po.ssa,ble o n l y in t h e d r y season. The Worlring Group on Roads has estimated tha,t t h e p r i o r i t y work t o be accom- p l i s h e d on n a t i o n e l roads a l o n e would c o s t i n t h e neighborhood of U.S. $700 m i l l i o n . ( s e e Table 15.) 45' IJhile t n e r e may be disagreement over t h e s e p r i o r i t i e s , many miles of I n d i a ' s main roads a r e v e r y poor, and mzny a.re h e a v i l y congested. The urban l i n k s of t h e main system a r e n o t o r i o u s l y overburdened r-rith a l l t~ypes of t r a f f i c . I n a d d i t i o n , l z r g e a r e a s of r u r a l India, have a3nos.t; no a-ccess roa,ds a t a,ll. IQrz.iny p e r i d s everything from vegetables t o new i d e z s Ere bogged down i n t h e mud. Kusum N ~ i described t h e o b s t a c l e s t o development r r e s u l t i n g from t r a - d i t i o n a l villa,ge l i f e and t h e changes t h z t f a v o r a b l e circumstances make p o s s i b l e . The most baclcdard v i l l a g e s a r e t y p i c a l l y t h e most i s o l a t e d ~ 5 l l a ~ g e s I n ,Rajas than, f o r example, t h e r e were v i l l a g e s . without a t r a c t o r o r a jeep, and even d r i n k i n g r ~ a t e r was being c a r t e d f o r - 1/ See Hans Adler, "Report of IIission t o Reiiier.3 Highway Transport Policy i n India. I n t e r n a t i o n a l Da,nk f o r Secons t r u c t i o n and Development, December 31, 1963. TABLE 13. Goods Transport by iba.d, Seven Day Survey Tons . Ton-I!ms ( I n thousands) I-!E.u~ ii~e~age (~ms.) I. D e l h i t o Bombay Food g r a i n s F r u i t and v e g e t a b l e s Fodder Cotton Livestock B u i l d i n g ma.terials Oil Sugar Textiles Ghee and vegeta.ble o i l s I r o n and s t e e l I Ia chinem- l'iedicine a,nd chemicals Provisions Other commodities Foodgrains F r u i ' ~a,nd v e g e t a b l e s Yood Oil. I r o n and s t e e l Textiles F e r t i l i z e r and manure Iledicine a,nd chemicals Tea and c o f f e e Cotton Provisions Building rna,terial-s klachinery Other agricu.1. p r o d u c t s Other commodities TABLE I&. Number of Trucks and Buses i n Selected Countries, 1964 Truclts and Buses Country Trucks Buses Total p e r 10,000 Inhabitants India Spain Portugal Greece Japan Tha-iland Iran Turkey Yugos lavie. Czecl~oslot.;.!ria 112,000 Lo, coo Pola.nL L3ums.nia USSR Source : Department of C ommerce , "VJorld P'iot o r Vehicle Production and Registration, 1963-64, Government P r i n t i n g Office, January 1965;. -/ a Includes 869,797 three-wheeled trucks. - b/ Includes t h e number of trucks i n Da.nzig. TABLE 15. Es timsted IJeeds of Hational Highways ( 1 5 , 0 0 0 ) 6 Fs t j m a ted Cost ----I Required Improvements R s . croiles Constructing missing l i n k s , 250 miles (12 f t . pavement) Construction of 25 major bridges Reconstruction and widening of :aeak z.nd narrow minor bridges and c ~ ~ l v e r f o r heavy vehicles (including ts truck-trailers) , giving p r i o r i t y t o major a r t e r i a l and s t r a , t e g i c routes t o t a l i n g 3400 miles :didening t,he ca.rria.geway t o t ; ~ o lanes on a l l major a.rteri.21 znd strc?.tegic routes (6000 miles) Strengthening t h e pavement of h e a v i l y t r a f f i c k e d s e c t i o n s of m . jor 2.rteria.l and s t r a t e g i c routes a (3000 miles) IJidening roads t o four l a n e s on Mationa!. Higk~reg routes nezr l a r g e c i t i e s , 300 miles Improvement of .the low gra,de s u . r f ~ c et o 12 f t. black-top surface, 500 miles Improvement 0 geometric si;andards of t h e e x i s t i n g 1 a.lignments (Lump sun]) Repla.cing e x i s t i n g l e v e l crossings ( 5 1 Nos. ) vhere the t r a f f i c hold-up i s prolonged Constructing by-pa.sses a.rou1d 40 congested torms 50 Constmcting expressvJ2.y (ne3.s ~ a . l c u t t a ) miles Carry-over worlcs from the Third 13ve Tear Plan 50.00 n E x p a ~ ~ s i oof I\?ationa.l Highwa.y Sys tem (3000 miles) Total (U.S.$892.5 million) -/ a Estimates from t h e 1:Jorl;ing Group on Xoads, 1365. m i l e s on t h e backs of camels. Iioad connections between t h e North E a s t F r o n t i e r Agency and t h e r e s t o f t h e country a r e s o s c a r c e t h a t u n t i l r e c e n t l y t h e economy of t h a t r e g i o n rras o p e r z t e d t r i t h bead money. Pic- c o r d i n g t o t h e v i l l a , g e l e a d e r of Iiombong, t h e p e o p l e a r e e a g e r f o r a. r o a d t o Dibrugarh because t h e y rant t o g e t o u t and s e e t h e m r l d . I'Ve d i a ) because we have been ta,ught t o . BJ+, d o n o t sa.y J a i Hind ( H a i l know i t s meaning. T" we I n t h i s p a r t of I n d i a t h e d o c t o r t r a v e l s on f o o t 12 t o 14 m i l e s a, d a y o v e r mountainous t e r r a i n . Ye+, t l i e r e have been many .. improvements s i n c e Independence. The p e o p l e a r e now g e t t i n g d r i n k i n g water, s c h o o l s , and Itabove a l l , roads. .I1 L6. According t o a r e s i d e n t of Boying Vill-age i n P a s i g h a t sub- d i v i s i o n , "we have s e e n t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e o l d and t h e new t i m e s . The main- d i f f e r e n c e is--tha.t we t r y t o u s e our b r a i n s more t h a n oui- f a t h e r s did--we t ~ a n tt o deve op more la.nd f o r p e n a n e n t c u l t i v a t i o n , a.s w e l l a s roads and b u s i n e s s . ? 47. The i s o l a t i o n o f rural I n d i a i s measured b y t h e f a c t t,ha.t o n l y 1 1 p e r c e n t of approximately 500,000 v i l l a . g e s a r e connected w i t h t h e r e s t of t h e c o u n t r y b y a n a l l - w e a t h e r roa,d. Seventeen p e r c e n t of t h e s e v i l l a - g e s a.re more t h a n 1 0 m i l e s from a l l - w e a t h e r r o a d s . Cjne o u t of e v e r y t h r e e v i l l a . g e s i s more t h a n 5 m i l e s from a dependable road connection. 48 . On t h e whole, I n d i a n a t t e m p t s t o improve t h e s t a n d a r d s of r u r a l road t r a n s p o r t have n o t been v e r y s u c c e s s f u l . The Road Develojpmeiit P l a n p r e s e n t e d t o t h e f ? I i n i s t r y of T r ~ m s p o r tand Communications i n 1958 s t a t e d t h a t t h e o b j e c t i v e of t h e program by 1381 should be t o b r i n g e v s r y ~ i l - l ? . g e i n a developed and a g r i c u l t u r a l a r e a " w i t h i n 4 m i l e s o f a m e t a l l e d roed and 1.5. m i l e s of a n y road. 113/ Other v i l l a g e s were t o be brought w i t h i n 8 t o 1 2 m i l e s of a s u r f a c e d road, o r 3 t o 5 m i l e s of a n u n s u r f ~ c e dr0a.d. But t h e a.ccomplishrnent of such a program can mean v e r y l i t t l e from a development s t a n d p o i n t . I n many p l a c e s v i l l a g e s t h a t a r e simply brought n e a r e r t o 2.11 a l l - w e a t h e r r w d r a t h e ? t h a n connected w i t h i t a r e h a r d l y much b e t t e r o f f . 1b.ny people riay be a.lmost helped, b u t none r e a l l y helped. 49 - Under t h e Community Development Program a n e f f o r t h a s been made t o move forward t ~ i t h l o c a l road program. V i l l a g e r s have c o n t r i b u t e d a t h e l a n d a.s w e l l a.s 25 m i l l i o n man-days of l a b o r and 2.7 n l i l l i o n rupees i n cash. A f t e r d r i n k i n g w a t e r and s c h o o l s , roa,dbuilding h a s most o f t e n been chosen by t h e fa.imer a.s t h e t y p e of p u b l i c worlts most needed b y t h e v i l l a g e . But t h e Community Developinent e f f o r t h a s been t o o l i m i t e d i n r e s o u r c e s ancl t o o d i s p e r s e d geogra.phically t o have a n impoixta.nt impact. - 1/ Kusurn F a i r , 3lossoms i n t h e Dust, Praeger, p. 128. - 2/ The same, p. 133. - 3/ Report of Chief .'kgitieers on Roa,d Development P l a n s f o r I n d i a (1961-81), New D e l h i , 1958, p 32. . Roads b u i l t under t h e program ha.ve n o t been designed t o l a s t , and no organiza.tion o r funds ha.ve been made a v a i l a b l e t o m a i n t a i n what was built. TABLE 16. P e r c e n t a g e D i s t r i b u t i o n of Villa,ges by Distance from t h e N e a r e s t kIeta.lled noed i n I n d i a , 1958-59. Dista,nce ( i n m i l e s ) Percenta,ge of V i l l a g e s 1r i t h i n v i l l a g e Up t o 1-1J2 m i l e s Between 1-1/2 and 3-1/2 m i l e s Between 3-1/2 and 5'-3/2 m i l e s Between 5'-1/2 and 10-1/2 m i l e s Between 10-1/2 amd 20 m i l e s Above 20 m i l e s I n f orma.t i o n n o t a v a i l a b l e Total Source : E n i s t r y of Community Development C . Disa-ganiza,tion of F r e i g h t Hauling 5'0 I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e la.& of roads, t r u c k t r a n s p o r t i n I n d i a is- t o a l a r g e e x t e n t d i s o r g a n i z e d . The motor v e h i c l e s t h a t a r e r e v o l u t i o n - i z i n g t r e n s p o r t systems i n much of t h e vcjrld t o d a y a r e symbolized i n India, b y ba.ttered, p o o r l y ma,inta.ined, and overloa.ded veh2cles l i n e d up a l o n g t h e d u s t y roads w e i t i n g t o p a y t c x e s . Substa.ntia1 r e s o u r c e s a.re b e i n g wasted by f r e q u e n t s t o p s and l o n g d e l 2 . y ~ . Only t h e s.bsence of a c c e p t a b l e a l t e r - n a t i v e t r a n s p o r t s e r - r i c e s can e x p l a i n t h e f a , c t t h a t road t r a n s p o r t c o n t i n u e s t o grow i n s p i t e of t h e r e s t r i c t i o n s . 51'. A t r u c k t r a v e l i n g from D e l h i t o Bombay s t o p s 27 t i n e s t o PET/a.n a v e r a g e of 1 0 0 rupees t o v a r i o u s t a x c o l l e c t o r s on tha.t r o u t e . Equipment r e p r e s e n t i n g s i g n i f i c a n t amounts of c a p i t a l and loaded vz.iuable c a r g o i s i d l e 33 p e r c e n t of t h e time. The r e s u l t i n g c o s t s t o t h e truc!c- i n g i n d u s t r y a r e pa,ssed on i n t h e form of h i g h e r p r o d u c t i o n c o s t s f o r i n d u s t r y and a g r i c u l t u r e . 52. The l a c k of v e h i c l e p a r t s a.nd ma.intenance, t h e absence of p u b l i c l y r e g u l a t e d booking a g e n c i e s , t h e o v e r l o a d i n g t h a t r e s u l t s from d i s o r g a n i z e d t r u c k i n g u n i t s a l l r e p r e s e n t a.dditiona1 c o s t s t o t h e n a t i o n . I n a-ddition, t r u c k s a r e now stopped t o check shipments f o r s a l e s ta,x enforcement. Truckers must show t h e o r i g i n and d e s t i n a t i o n of each consignment, and i t s vaLue. D e c l a r a t i o n s a r e o f t e n checked by i n s p e c t i o n of cargo, i n - volving l o n g dela,vs. D r i v e r s roust e i t h e r submit t o t h e de1a.y w h i l e checlcing i s i n p r o c e s s , o r p a y t o g e t through. Pluch of t h e f l e e t i s always immobilized due t o breakdo~,~ns. The nun,ber of commercia.l ve1licl.e~ nmr being produced i s a l s o i n s u f f i c i e n t t o r e p l a c e t h e e x i s t i f i g s t o c k of v e h i c l e s , l e t a l o n e meet t h e i n c r e a s i n g demands r e s u l t i n g from g r o t ~ t f lof t h e economy. The cumulative r e s u l t of t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s i s t h a t on ms.ny roads t h e r e i s s c a r c e l y any t r a f f i c . ?Jew roa.ds a r e being b d l t and r e s t r i c t i o n s imposed a t t h e sa.roe time t h a t p r e - ~ e n tt h e i r being used. 53 rm A d d i t i o n a l problems stem f o t h e d i f f i c u l t y of g e t t i n g a t r u c k l i c e n s e d f o r i n t e r s t a t e o p e r a t i o n s . S i n c e e x i s t i n g t r a n s p o r t agencies ( i n c l u d i n g t h e r a i l w a y s ) have t h e r i g h t t o p r o t e s t each i n t e r s t a t e t r u c k - i n g a,pplication, t h e r e a r e c e r t a i n t o be o b j e c t i o n s t o t h e issua-nce of any c e r t i f i c a t e f o r t r a n s p o r t i n g by t r u c k on r o u t e s over 300 miles. G e n e r a l l y only a tempora,ry c e r t i f i c a t e i s granted, f o r one month o r even f o r one round t r i p , w i t h t h e r e s u l t t n a t much time i s wasted I n t h e f r u s t r a t i n g e f f o r t t o rene1.J l i c e n s e s . 1 54 fl c e r t i f i c a t e t o opera.te an a , d d i t i o n a l t r u c k i s o f t e n gi-$en t o a p p l i c a n t s who have no v e h i c l e r a t h e r thon t o o p e r a t o r s i n t h e b u s i n e s s wishing t o expand t h e i r f l e e t s . The r e s u l t i s t h a t 80 p e r c e n t of common c a r r i e r s have only one t r u c k , and t h e r e a.re v e r y few via.ble t r u c k i n g concerns. The one-truck common caXprierf i n d s it inrpossible t o s e r v e t h e l a r g e customer who needs c o n t i n u i n g d a i l y s e r v i c e because such r e g u l a r s e r v i c e cannot be given w i t h only one v e h i c l e . l / Common c z r r i e r firms should be encoura.ged t o o p e r a t e t h e n e c e s s a r y minimum number of t r u c k s t o c r e a t e v i a b l e b u s i n e s s u n i t s . Individus.1. s t a - t e s have arttempted t o e s t ~ b l i s h what t h e minimum s i z e should be. 1Jadra.s a t one time s p e c i f i e d f i v e . L a t e r t h e f i g u r e was reduced t o t ~ r o . Some s t a t e s a.t one time pro\cLded t h a t firms w i t h t e n t r u c k s Irere e n t i t l e d t o a. 10 p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n i n motor v e h i c l e license fees. 55 The C e n t r a l Government has a l s o attempted t o z s s i s t t r u c k i n g f i r m s by p r o v i d i n g t h a t where t h e r e a r e twenty-five t r u c k s under one ma.nagement, o r under a s i c g l e s e r v i c e co opel-ative, t h e s e o r g a n i z a t i o n s could obta.in inrport l i c e n s e s f o r needed spa,re p a r t s . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e I n t e r s t a t e Tramsport Commission has r u l e d t h a t a.11 t r u c k s permi%ted t o o p e r a t e over 300 m i l e s should belong t o a f l e e t of not l e s s t h a n f i v e vehicles, but t h i s r u l i ~ g was c o n t e s t e d i n t h e c o u r t s and t h e mcltor v e h i c l e a c t w i l l have t o be amended t o make t h e s t i p u l a t i o n l e g a l . - 1/ S t a t e regula.tions and motor v e h i c l e l i c e n s i n g p r a x t i c e s a r e d e s c r i b e d 1, i n t h e I n d i a Coal Transport Study, Vol. 1 1 pp. 56-60, Surveys 2nd Research, LC. a,nd Coverdale and C o l p i t t s , June 1, 1964. 56 Sta.te motor v e h i c l e a . u t h o r i t i e s a r e o f t e n r e l u c t a n t t o permit l a r g e t r u c k i n g concerns, and t h e i r p r a c t i c e i s t o c o n f e r new l i c e n s e s on a l a r g e number of i n d i v i d u a l a p p l i c a n t s ra,ther than encourage a s m a l l number of la.rge firms. For this reason, i t appears t h a t j o i n t Center- s t a t e d i s c u s s i o n s should be held t o map p'ans f o r encoxraging a more e f f i c i e n t t r u c k i n g i n d u s t r y . blith s t a t e cooperz.tion, f o r exainple, t h e Center might provide long-term 101,~-interestra.tes t o companies l i c e n s e d t o o p e r a t e a designa.ted minimum f l e e t . 57. Finamcing i s a. major problem t h a t needs t o be overcome i n any case. A t r u c k may c o s t $5,000, b u t t h e r e a r e no adequate means of ob- t a i n i n g t h e c a p i t a 3 . Investment f i n a n c i n g c m p a n i e s charge v e r y high r a t e s of i n t e r e s t - - 3 0 p e r c e n t i s common--and r e q u i r e payment of principa.1 i n 24 months. Under t h e s e circumstances, t h e t r u c k e r i s d e s p e r a t e t o g e t enough business t o meet h i s pa-yments. He does s o by a c c e p t i n g work from booking a g e n t s which a r e i n a p o s i t i o n t o absorb a h i g h percentage of t h e ra.te p a i d by t h e s h i p p e r . The t r u c k opera,tor i s o f t e n l e f t w i t h t o o l i t t l e t o s u p p o r t a sound business opera.tion. 58 To i l l u s t r a t e , i n Delhi a t r u c k o p e r a t o r w i t h a f l e e t of 65 v e h i c l e s reduced t h e s i z e of h i s f l e e t b e m u s e he could o p e r a t e more p r o f i t a b l y by h i r i n g t h e one-truck owners t o meet h i s marginal need on a day-to-da.7 b a s i s . B y doing so, t h e l a r g e opera.tor avoids tying up h i s c a p i t a l i n new equipment, and 1ea.ves t o o t h e r s t h e time-consunling and c o s t l y t a s k of o b t a i n i n g a c e r t i f i c a - t e . I n a.ddition, he can pay. l e s s t h a n t h e going ra.te when he h i r e s an i n d i v i d u a l t r u c k e r , s i n c e t h e l a t t e r i s compelled t o e a r n whatever he can t o h e l p meet h i s f i n a n c i a l o b l i g a t i o n s . 59 0 Rocad t r a n s p o r t i n southern I n d i a i n d i c z t e s what can be done w i t h an adequate roa,d system and good organization. Southern Roa,dways P r i v a t e Ltd. i n 1,iadurzi owns a,nd operates both t r u c k s end buses. Its 180 t r u c k s and 114 t r a i l e r s o p e r a t e 31,000 miles a day, averaging 227 miles each, and t o t a l t r a v e l f o r t h e t r u c k f l e e t i n 1963-64 was 11,620,231 m i l e s . Only package goods weighing up t o 200 pounds a r e ca,rried. ,%tes a r e t h e same a s t h o s e of t h e railways. The compny ha.s 35 booking o f f i c e s of i t s own a,nd 378 agents. Goods c a r r i e d t o t a l 207,000 t o n s p e r year, i n c l u d i n g y a r n and o t h e r c l o t h i n g m a t e r i a l s , engines, machinery t o o l s , t i r e s , household , a . r t i c l e s , tobacco products and g e n e r a l mercha,ndise . Altl~ought a x e s a r e high, s o a.re p r o f i t s , and t h e company i s a l s o a.ble t o support a, r e t i r e - ment fund, c l o t h i n g , s c h o o l f e e s , medical outlz,ys, bonuses and o t h e r benefits. 60. Notable i n t h e Southern .3oz,d~.rays~ operations i s t h e emphasis on maintenance and management. Modern ~ r o d ~ s h o p s a v a i l a b l e t o a.ssu.e t h a t Zre a l l v e h i c l e s a r e i n good c o n d i t i o c . Overloading i s n o t permitted, and t h e company has supported i n c r e a s i n g road t a x e s f o r t h e purpose of a s s u r i n g a. modern road system. The b e n e f i t s of t h i s p o l i c y have been considerable, f o r 1la.dra.s S t a t e hes a l a r g e milea.ge of good two-lane roads a.nd ma.kes use of modern road machinery i n i t s c o n s t r u c t i o n and ma.intena.nce work. The s t a t e has never had o c t r o i l e v i e s , a.nd a s e p a z a t e highvay department i s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e road system. D. S i g n i f i c a n c e of Bxid Transport Trends 61. The growth of motor t r a n s p o r t has introduced a new s t a g e i n t h e development of s u r f a c e t r a n s p o r t i n India,. The r a i l ~ ~ a y s have t h u s f a r been t h e most important t r a n s p o r t element i n t h e g r a r t h cf t h e Ir1dia.n economy. Their c o n t r i b u t i o n has been t h e na.tiorndde d i s t r i b v t i o n of grea.t volumes of coal, ore, and foodgrains, a.nd t h e c a p a c i t y t o accomplish t h i s must be ma.intained and e-xpanded. But now t h e motor v e h i c l e and highvay have r a i s e d t h e q u e s t i o n h o r ~s t e p s can be taken t o make t h e most of new t e c h n o l o g i c a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s . Unless t h i s q u e s t i o n i s answered c o r r e c t l y , t h e r e may be e i t h e r overinvestment i n t h e rai1wa.y~ o r underinvestment i n t h e o t h e r t r a n s p o r t t o o l s on which z.ccelerated g r a r t h depends. 62. If s c i e n c e and technology had n o t p r o d d e d a choice, t h e r e r ~ m l d be no problem. A system of railways p l u s bullock c m t s axd o t h e r t r a d i - t i o n a l methods of l o c a l pick-up and d e l i v e r j would c l e a r l y be t h e only ma.j o r t r a n s p o r t p o s s i b i l i t y . But thanks t o advs ncing technology t h e t a s k i s t o a.rrive a,t a. combination of r a i l , t r u c k , and o t h e r tra.nsport methods t h a t w i l l prove most e f f e c t i v e f o r economic and s o c i a l development. The conclusion i s inescapable t h a t a ~ h a t e v e rt h e answer, I n d i a w i l l ha.ve t o p u t grea,ter r e l i a n c e on road t r a n s p o r t r e l a t i v e t o t o t a l t r a m p o r t operations. There i s a l s o reason t o b e l i e v e t h e outcome w i l l be good f o r t h e railways and good f o r Indiam economic development. 63 The s h i f t s from r a i l t o r0a.d r e l i e L T et h e ra.ilways of demends t h e y axe n o t w e l l s u i t e d t o meet and a,t t h e s m e time provide 2 s u 2 e r i o r s e r v i c e f o r business 2nd a g r i c u l t u r e a t lower t o t 2 , l c o s t s of d i s t r i b u t i o n . The speed a.nd frequency of n o t o r v e h i c l e s e r v i c e i s a,n answer t o t h e high c o s t of l a r g e i n v e n t o r i e s a s w e l l as a means of g e 5 t i n g t h i n g s moved promptly. 811-wea,ther motorized s e r v i c e s i n most r u r a l a r e a s w i l l n o t a.dversely a f f e c t t h e railweys . They w i l l s u b s t i t u t e modem f o r t r a . d i t i o n a 1 nethods o r complement l o c a l bullock c m t w i t h l o n g e r h a u l t r u c k t r a n s p c r t t o market o r r z i l heed. I n e i t h e ~ case t h e r e s u l t w i l l be t o incre2.se production, or t h e i n c e n t i v e t o produce, o r t h e recovery of ~ r h a ti s pro- duced but l o s t t o t h e market. The r e s u l t w i l l be t h e c r e z t i o n of t r a f f i c f o r t h e ra.ilways a s w e l l a s f o r t h e tmxcks. For road t r a n s p o r t can s e r v e t o t a p t h e resources of rura.1 Iridia a l o n g r o u t e s vhere t r a f f i c volume could n o t p o s s i b l y j u s t i f y a railway, i r . many cases f e e d i n g t h i s t r a f f i c t o t h e rai1wa.y s y s tern. 64. , I n e d d i t i o n t o p u r e l y t r a n s p o r t considera.tions t h e development of road tra.nsport 2;a.s mmy a . t t r i b u t e s th? t can h e l p t o s t i m u l a t e t h e economy. Among them i s t h e development of investment 2,nd e m p l o p e n t i n t h e s u p p o r t i n g inclus tries--roa.dbuilding, mot o r v e h i c l e producfui.on and operation, petroleum 2,nd t i r e manufacturer, and v e h i c l e r e p a i r and s e r v i c - ;s i n g . These a - c t i v i - t i e s support many r e l e . t e d econoinic a . c t i ~ ~ 5 t i e t h e y c r e a t e s k i l l e d workers and nex entrepreneurs, a.nd t h e y add t o savings a.nd ca.pit2.l. It i s t r u e th2.t t h e automotive s e c t o r under p r e s e n t conditions r e q u i r e s s i z a . b l e f o r e i g n exchange commitments. But n e t r e s u l t s a r e what count. Foreign exchange cen be saved i f improved d i s t r i b u t i o n of f e r t i l i z e r and b e t t e r marketing can help t o grow more food a t home, thus reducing depend- ence on imports. And f o r e i g n exchange can be earned by t h e promotion of exports, which w e w i l l s e e a,re h e a v i l y dependent on improved roa-d t r a n s p o r t . VI. Tra.nspo,-t Coordina.tion - 65. Lf India-n t r a n s p o r t Is t o be e f f e c t i v e l y provided, p o l i c i e s a.nd a c t i o n s with r e s p e c t t o any one method of tra.nsport m i l l need t o be weighed w i t h a,ppropriate consideration of a l t e r n a t i v e s and rela.tionships t o o t h e r - t r a n s p o r t media.. F a i l u r e t o do t h i s may r e s u l t i n wrong choices of invest- ment, unnecessa.ry d u p l i c a t i o n of f a c i l i t i e s a.nd s e r v i c e s , f a i l u r e t o make e f f e c t i v e use of ner-J technologies, o r n e g l e c t of necessary p h y s i c a l con- nections. To avoid t h e s e r e s u l t s c a l l s f o r coordination--looking a t trans- p o r t a t i o n a s a whole, approaching it a s a. p h y s i c a l sys tern, amd adopting e q u i t a b l e p r i n c i p l e s and p o l i c i e s t o provide ar,d pa,y f o r it. Coordina.tion assumes t h a t investment choices u i l l provide t h e most s u i t a b l e technology f o r t h e t a s k s t o be accomplished, and t h a t d i s t o r t i o i ? ~crea-ted by taxa.tion, subsidy, p r i c i n g a.nd r e g u l a t o r y p o l i c y w i l l be avoided. 66. Coordination can be achieved i n a v a r i e t y of ways. A p o r t has t o and be served by eppropria,te connecting r a i b ~ ~ y highway f a c i l i t i e s . This p h y s i c a l o b j e c t i v e has t o be accomplished through cooperative planning by - those i n charge of investment a l l o c a t i o n s a,s w e l l a s by operating agencies-. the p o r t a u t h o r i t y , t h e s t a t e o r l o c a i p u b l i c biorks department, and t h e ra.ilway. But o t h e r aspects of t h e coordina.tIon t a s k a r e l e s s simply c a r r i e d out. I n me.king p l a n s f o r new investments, f o r example, t h e problem i s t o a r r i v e a t t h e most s a t i s f a c t o r y technological s o l u t i o n from t h e standpoint-. of the dema.nd t o be s a t i s f i e d , t e c h n i c a l p e r f ormance, a.nd resource require- ments. Once t h e investment pl2.n has been made, f u r t h e r e f f o r t s t o achieve a. coordina,ted approach have t o be accomplished through uniform t a x acd fina.ncing p o l i c i e s and through ra,tes and f a z e s t h a t r e f l e c t c o s t s a s near1.y a,s p o s s i b l e . It i s ra,tes a.nd f a r e s , t o g e t h e r with s e r v i c e cha,ra,cteristics, t h a t w i l l then provide t h e b a s i s on : ~ h i c h choices a r e ma,de by shippers and consumers. 67. I n many Znstances e i t h e r t h e choice of t r a n s p o r t metl~cdi s apperent, o r t h e problem of coordination does not a r i s e . The construction of a v i l l a g e access roa.d, f o r example, does not r a i s e t h e question whether a, r a i l w a g should s e r v e i n s t e a d . And i n o t h e r i n s t a n c e s , where two o r more s o l u t i o n s a r e o f f e r e d , n e i t h e r one i s a b l e by i t s e l f t o meet t h e t o t a , l needs. Thus a i r t r a v e l between ma-jor c i t i e s provides such rapid t r a n s - p o r t a t i o n com3ared t o r a i l t h a t it serves a, d i f f e r e n t market. Both methods a r e required, t o g e t h e r w i t h bus t r a n s p o r t , which c a t e r s t o many s h o r t t r i p s on segments of t h e same r o u t e , g e n e r d l y a.t l o v e r c o s t . l h i l e t h e operation of t h e s e p a r a l l e l s e r v i c e s may ca-use t h e casua.1 observer t o a.ssme laxk of c o o r d i ~ a t i o n , a c t u e l l y a.11 t h r e e s e r v i c e s a r e performing t h e i r appropria.te r o l e s , a l l of them a r e necessary t o en adequ2te t o t a l system, and a l l of them a r e c o n t r i b u t i n g t o economic growth. 68. The same i s t r u e of d c p l i c a t i n g road and r a i l f r e i g h t f a c i l i t i e s . It i s o f t e n su-pposed t h a t ro2.d s e r v i c e s p a r a a l l e l t o a ra.il?:ay r e p r e s e n t a,n undesira.ble d u p l i c a t i o n of f a c i l i t i e s , and tha,t trucking r e p r e s e n t s a more c o s t l y way of providing t h e same s e r v i c e tha,t t h e rai3p:ay o f f e r s . These views r e f l e c t t h e a~ssumptior,t h a t road and r a . i l t r a n s p o r t a r e essen-5ia.ll.:7 t h e same kind of s e r v i c e , t h a t it i s a m a t t e r of i n d i f f e r e n c e whether a. shipment moves by one method or t h e other, and t h a t t r a f f i c m o v i ~ gby road could, by a p p r o p r i a t e r e g u l a . t o ~ y measures, be s h i f t e d t o r a i l . The Role of Truck Transport 69. Vhile it i s t r u e t h a t some t r a f f i c could move e i t h e r this i s not t-me of a l l t r a f f i c . The .railways lia,ve a c l e a r advanta,ge i n t h e ha.uling of l a r g e and heavy o b j e c t s , i n t h e movement of grea-t volumes of .- f r e i g h t , and i n ca-rriage over long d i s t a n c e s . Cayloa.d and t r a i n l o a d ship- ments having a s i n g l e o r i g i n and s i n g l e d e s t i n a t i o n permit t h e rail?r~ays t o o f f e r specia.1 economies end t o enjoy a c l e a r competitive advs,ntage. Thus a ma.j o r p a r t of a na.tiont s i n d u s t r i a . 1 a.nd mineral t r ~ . f f i c s w e l l a s a bulk a g r i c u l t u r a l products move by r a i l , and i n terms of ton-kilometers, t h e r a i l system i n India, es i n most o t h e r c o ~ ~ n t r i e s ,s t h e "backbone" i on t h e tra,nsportation system. 70. But i n a. developing economy where t h e r e i s gror?ing specia,lization of i n d u s t r y 2nd i n c r e a s i n g c o m e r c i a l i z a t i o n of a g r i c u l t u r e , t h e motor trucl: and high~7a.ynetr.ror!; i n e v i t a b l y a t t r a c t s a. s i g n i f i c a n t pro2ortion of t h e newly generated t r a f f i c . The kinds of things t h a t move by t r u c k include : (1) Commodities th2.t a r e f r a g i l e and ~rrould r e q u i r e c o s t l y p r o t e c t i v e packa.ging i f s e n t by r a i l . (2) value which involve subs t a n t i a 1 Goods of c o n ~ i d e r a ~ b l e worlring c a p i t a l i f s l o ~ rd e l i v e r y by r a i l re+'.'I r e s large inventories. (3) T r a f f i c wliich i s nore chea,ply moved a l l t h e w a y bjr t r u c k ra.ther than t r a n s f e r r e d from t r u c k t o r a i l a t o r i g i n and back t o t r u c k a t d e s t i n a t i o n . (4) Srnall consignments t h a t t h e railrrags a r e not ell equipped t o ha.ndle economically. and expeditiously. (5) Perishs.ble goods t h a t cannot be moved u n l e s s trams- p o r t i s a v a i l a b l e immediztely and t h e t r i p concluded prorqtly. ( 6 ) Shipmeilts t h e t have o r i g i n s and destina.tions a+, p o i n t s dista.nt from t h e r a i l system, brhich could move p a r t l y by. r a i l b u t only over c i r c u i t o u s routes. ( 7 ) 11Za.terials which form a continuous flow from one p l a n t t o a.nother f o r f u r t h e r processing, and which a r e moved by t r u c k i n f r e q u e n t shipments t o meet production schedules. & G o d s mo7Jing i n l i m i t e d q u a m t i t i e s o r over i n t e r m e d i a t e d i s t a n c e s , which would be unduly dela.yed by t h e time r e q u i r e d f o r making up f u l l t r a i n s . (9) A l l f r e i g h t which d e s p i t e lmser c o s t s of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n by r a i l can be moved cheaper by road when a l l d i s t r i - b u t i o n c o s t s a r e ta.ken i n t o a.cco~lm.t. 71. Truck t r a n s p o r t r e p r e s e n t s a. technology which n o t only b e t t e r accomplishes some of t h e s e r v i c e s p r e v i o u s l y provided by r a i l , b u t permits a d d i t i o n a l types of movements t h a t ~ s o u l dn o t have been p o s s i b l e w i t h o u t motorized road s e r v i c e . That t h i s i s n o t always c l e a r i s i r d i c c t e d by a n e x e r c i s e of t h e Plamniqg Commission 1 s J o i n t Technical Gr0u.p f o r Trs nspm-t Plamning. Estima.tes have been made of t h e edded r a i l c a p a c i t y t h a t would be needed i f road t r a f f i c on i n t e r s t a t e roeds were t o be d i v e r t e d t o rail., 1/ I n most cases t h e l i n e c a p a c i t y a.lready exists, and only one o r -L~ro addi- t i o n a 2 tr2,ins (a.nd o f t e n l e s s than one t r a i n ) rzrould be needed t o c a r r y a l l t h a t now moves by roa,d. Yet t h i s t r a f f i c s t i l l moves by r w d , o f t e n a t h i g h e r r a t e s , and t h e reason i s not t h a t s h i p p e r s a r e i n c a p s b l e of making r a t i o n a l choices, b u t t h a t f o r sane types of t r a f f i c r a i l ~ s a y sdo n o t prottide t h e desired services. 72. The problem of coordination, then, i s t h e problem of makii~g e f f e c t i v e use of 2 v a i l a b l e technologies i n a n i n t e g r a t e d t r a n s p o r t netlrork. Because of t h e d i f f e r i n g c h a r s c t e r i s t i c s of d i f f e r e n t t r a n s p o r t methods, t h e behavior of t h e i r c o s t s , and t h e d i f f e r e n t sts.ges of t h e i r developmert, t h e t a s k of a c h i e v i n g a.n e q u a l b a s i s f o r choice i i a p e r i o s of i n n o v a t i o n ~ i s a major challenge. 73. It i s n a t u r a l , then, t h a t t h e r e should be doubts about t h e d e s i r a b i l i t y of p r e s e n t t r e n d s i n t r a n s p o r t . The railways a,re l o s i n g t o t h e t r u c k s t h e t y p e s of t r a f f i c t h a t e a r n a d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e s h a r e of t o t a l re7renue, a.nd t h e y a r e being c a l l e d upon t o c a r r y i n c r e a s i n g volumes of f r e i g h t t h a t p~7yless r r e l l . But e f f o r t s t o 'Icoordina.teI1 c2,nnot succeed which attempt t.o f o r c e onto t h e r a i l s shipments which nag move by because road t r a n s p o r t o f f e r s supewior s e r v i c e and l o v e r d i s t r i b u t i o n c o s t s . The apparent c o n t r a d i c t i o n betveen high t r a n s p o r t c o s t and g r e a t e r econmy of d i s t r i b u t i o n z r i s e s from t h e f e c t t h x t t h e manufacturer has many o t h e r m r k e t i n g c o s t s than t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , i n c l u d i z g Insurance, packaging, stor2,ge and i n v e n t o r y c o s t s . The T:G.~. t o reduce t h e c o s t s of d i s t r i b u t L o n i s o f t e n t o pay a premium f o r fas-L door-to-door truc!r t r a n s - - 1/ Pla-raing Commission, llL >Tote on Estimated Volune of Oridnating Goods Trafi'ic by doad a t t h e h d of t h e F o w t h Plar., Ja,nuary 1965, Qpendix I .V porta,tion r a t h e r than pa.y i n d i r e c t l y i n time l o s s and i n v e n t o r y charges when s e r v i c e i s provided by r a i l . 7b. The Pisnning Commission has taken t h e v i e v tha,t it w i l l be necessary t o undertake sane measure of reorga.niza.+,ion of road trms- ,fly p o r t t o s e c u r e coordination, and t h a t llgovernmentls a r e i n gocds t r a n s p o r t w i l l have t o be s i g n i f i c a . n t l y increased. , To t h a t end, it is proposed t h a t t h e Government of I n d i a s e t up a n I n t e r s t a t e 2os.d Tra.nsport Corpora,tion f o r p r o v i d i n g s e r v i c e s on long-distance r o u t e s . Ha.lf t h e ca.pita.1 would be provided by t h e Center, i n c l u d i n g t h e r a i l - ways, and t h e ba.lz.nce by s t a t e governments. W i t h t h e organiza.tion of long-distance s e r v i c e s i n t h e p u b l i c s e c t o r , it I-~ould become e a s i e r t o ensure c o o r d i n a t i o n bekdeen road and r a i l s e r v i c e s having due regazd t o t h e s u i t a , b i l i t y of t h e s e s e r v i c e s f o r d i f f e r e n t types of t r a f f i c . " P r o v i s i o n i s a l s o made i n t h e Fourth Plan f o r S t a t e noad T r m s p o r t Corporations t o e n t e r t h e f i e l d of goods t r a n s p o r t . 75 If t h e proposa.1 t o coordina,te r a i l a.nd r0a.d t r a n s p o r t i s t c a r r i e d o ~ through inclusi.on of t r u c k opera.tions i n t h e p u b l i c s e c t o r , it could be done i n e i t h e r of t x o ways. One p o s s i b i l i t y i s f o r t h e re.il~qa,vst o expand o p e r a t i o n s t o i n c l u d e t r u c k i n g i n connection w i t h aba.ndonment of branch l i n e s and uneconomic serv5ces. And s i n c e r a i l - ~,w.g~s a.re o f t e n unable t o f u r n i s h t h e speed 2nd frequeccy of s e r v i c e required by some types of f r e i g h t , r a i l w a y o p e r a t i o n of t r u c k s e r v i c e s permit t h e r a i l v a y s t o s h a r e i n p a r a l l e l t o r a . i l l i n e s ~ s o u l d2 . 1 ~ 0 t e c h n o l o g i c a l chamge. But g i v i n g r a i b a y ina.ne.gement t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t o provide motor s e r v i c e s does n o t imply a monopoly of such s e r v i c e s . 76. The problem i s t o convince ra.ilt~ay. mana.gement t h a t t h e futm-e l i e s i n p r o v i d i n g t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a,nd n o t simply r a i l v a y s . T h i s k i n d of i n t e g r a t i o n of road znd r a . i l s e r v i c e s i s befng accomplished i n Ca.nada., i n both t h e p u b l i c and p r i v a t e s e c t o r s . I n t h e p u b l i c s e c t o r , t h e Canadia-n National ;?ailways a r e o p e r a t i n g tmtcks ( a s w e l l a.s s h i p s and a i r c r a f t ) a.nG ra.te p o l i c i e s a r e designed t o encoursge ti?e economic use of eaxh method. I n t n e p r i v a t e s e c t o r , t h e Cznadian P a c i f i c i s l i k e - wise o p e r a t i n g a l l methods of t r a . n s p o r t i n what; has come t o be known a s a t r a . n s p o r t a t i o n c o i a , m j . The ~a.il?sa_vs have 20 monopoly of t r u c k i n g , h mever. 77. The second p o s s i b i l i t y and t h e p r e s e n t o f f i c i a l proposal would be simply t o o p e r a t e t r u c k s through a p u b l i c coryoration, without any connection wt ih t h e ra.ilwa:ys. But i t i s h i g h l y dubious t h a t such an approz.ch would improve e f f i c i e n c y , a ~ dh e proposa,l misses tile t o p p o r t u n i t y of p h y s i c a l l y i n t e g r a - t i n g t r u c k a.nd r a i l s e r v i c e s . - 1/ Planning Commis s i o n , Transp o r t D i v i s i o n , Pyogramri~esf o r Developmer;+, of Tra,nsp o r t a,nd Communica.t i o n s i n t h e Fourth Plan. 78. P u b l i c s e c t o r trucking could mean signj-fica.nt l o s s e s f o r t h e economj. Large amounts of capita.1 now being obtained from t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r f o r t h e p r o v i s i o n of t r u c k i n g f a c i l i t i e s would have t o be supplied by t h e p u b l i c s e c t o r . The p r i v a t e c a p i t s 1 r e l e a s e d may o r mzy s o t f i n d o t h e r e q u a . 1 1 ~ r o f i t a b l e uses. And a s soon a s i t becomes c l e a r tk.at, t h e p government i s i n t e n t on o p e r a t i n g truclts, t h e r e n1a.y be a g e n e r a l reluc- t a n c e on t h e p a r t of p r i v a t e e n t r e p r e n e u r s t o r i s k long-term commitments of c a p i t a l . A s a r e s u l t , needed t r u c k i n g s e r v i c e s i n t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r might not b e forthcoming, and governtnent o p e r a t i o n s aiqd f i n a n c i a l commit- ments might have t o extend f a r beyond p r a x t i c a l l h i t s . 73. An a d d i t i o n a l problem l i k e l y t o a r i s e from p u b l i c s e c t o r o p e r a t i o n s would be t h e l o s s of personadl s e r ~ i c e h a t s h i p p e r s have come t to ex~ect from p r i v a t e s e c t o r opera.tions . The businessman, fs?rmer, and s m a l l s h i p p e r might experience t h e same s e r v i c e d i f f i c u l t i e s w i t h p u b l i c l y operated t r u c k s a s with t h e ra,ilvays. 60. n O balance, p r e s e n t p r o p o s a l s f o r p u b l i c t r u c k i n g 1-ines appea.r t o promise more n e g a t i v e t h a n p o s i t i v e r e s u l t s . The modest p l a n t o opera.te some 3,030 t r u c k s i n t h e p u b l i c s e c t o r would achieve n e i t h e r co- o r d i n a t i o n nor c o n t r o l , f o r t h e number of t r u c k s i s i n t h e hundreds ol" thousands. Ilore e f f e c t i v e use of resources i n t r u c k tran,sport would be achieved by t h e r e d u c t i o n of r e g u l a t i o n s and government ninderances, and by t h e i n i t i a t i o n of p o s i t i v e a.ctions t o ma.l;e t h e priva.te s e c t o r function. The l a t t e r c d be accomplished by Increased production of v e h i c l e s a.nd , pa.rts , t h e i n s t i t u t i o n of favora.ble f i n a n c i n g a.rra.ngements a c c e l e r a t i o n of road improvement, s i w l i f i c a t i o n of l i c e n s i n g procedures, and remo~ra.1 of harassments. B. Passenger Transport Coordination 81. I b j o r chenges i n t h e p a t t e r n of passenger t r a v e l and continuing developments i n t e c l ~ n o l o g yhave s u b s t a , n t i a l l y s . l t e r e d f,ie n a t u r e a.nd e x t e n t of t r a v e l t r e n d s . C l e ~ r l y t o t a l view ha.s t o be taken t o pro-~cide a f o r passenger needs and p r e f e r e n c e s , talting maximum advantage of improved methods. .- 82. - the 13 period 1956-63, i n t e r c i t y r a - i l passenger t r a f f i c i n c r e a s e d 10 p e r c e n t , while commutep s e r v i c e s i n c r e a s e d 29 p e r c e n t . There wa.s a s u b s t a n t i a l s h i f t of s h o r t and medium-dis-Lance passenger t r a f f i c t o t h e bus, while long-distznce movements were i n c r e a s i n g l y made by 2.ir. Dui5ng t h e f i r s t ti30 y e a r s of t h e Third Pla.n, o p e r a t i o n s of 1ndia.n a i r l i n e s i n - crea,sed by 1 8 p e r cent, and s i n c e t h e n t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n of Ca.rs.r.relle a.nd Ecoeing s e r v i c e s on major long-dista.nce r o v t e s has grea.tly e x p s ~ d e dt h e r o l e of t h e a i r l i n e s . TABU 17. ?ail Passenger Trends, 1956/57 t o 1962/63 P e r Cent I n c r e a s e i n Passenger Tr2.f f i c :<?on-suburban Tc5el Central Ea,st e r n Nor-thern North E a s t e r n Eortheast Frontier Southerr, South %ast e r n lies t eyn A l l Indic: ,%ik~ajrs Source: Based on d a t a s u p p l i e d by t h e Pla.nning Ccmmission. - a/ I n c r e a s e s over 1950-59. 83. I n pla.nr,ing f o r f u t u r e t r a . v e l f z c i l i t i e s , t h e p r o s p e c t of f u r t h e r innova.tion i s a, key f s . c t o r . F o r exemple, r a i l facilities a,nd equipment made a v a i l a b l e now w i l l s u r v i v e s e v e r a l gener3>tions of new a i r c r a f t . This me2.n~ t h a t long-term co~nmitmentt o f i r s t c l a s s a d long-haul rzj-bay fa.ci- l i t i e s w i l l ha.ve t o be compared ~Jsithd e c l i n i n g s i r t r a n s p o r t c o s t s re- sultii~g from a.dvzcces in a i r c r a . f t equipment t h a t w i l l become availa.ble i n t h e near f u t u r e . 84. I n r e c e n t y e a r s a i r c r a . f t apera.ting c o s t s p e r s e a t - m i l e h2,ve from 4.5'9 c e n t s f o r t h e DC-3 a.nd 2-45 c e n t s f o r declined s u b s t a , n t i s l l ~ ~ , t h e DC-6 -to a.c a,rerage of 1.5' c e n t s f o r j e t l i n e r s . Severa of t h e never j e t s h ; i e reduced seat-mile c o s t s t o l e s s t h a n 1.3 c e n t s . 3 The c e r t a i n t y of f u r t h e r improvenents i n p e r f orroance end economy i n t r o d u c e s a n i m p o r t a n t f a x t o r i n today s investment d e c i s i on-ma.Mng. 65. C u r r e n t aerona,uticz,l t r e n d s i n d i c e t e t h a t l i g h t e r and more powerful engines p l u s s t r o n g e r a n d l i g h t e r - w e i g h t m a t e r i a l s b5 1. 1 corllbine t o a c h i e v e v e r y s u b s t a n t i a l transpol-t economies i n t h e y e a r s ahead. I'!ew e i r c r s f t available w i t h i n f i v e y e a r s w i l l quadruple t h e pay1oa.d~ of p r e s e n t j e t t r a n s p o r t s . The e f f e c t of t h e s e developments t r i l l make i t p o s s i b l e t o - 1/ U.S. F e d e r a l AvLa5ion Agency, " D i r e c t @crating Costs axd Other Performance C h a . r a c t e r i s t i c s of T r a n s p o r t A i r c r a f t i n A i r l i n e S e r v i c e , If 1963, p. 8. f l y between t h e principa.1 c i t i e s of I n d i a f o r a t h i r d of t h e f a r e charged today. Short-haul j e t s and nev d i r e c t - l i f t a i r c r a f t w i l l g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e t h e number of c i t i e s served by a i r , and w i l l reduce t h e c o s t of ground facilities. 86. n O t h e ground t h e r i s i n g t r e n d toward p r i v s t e passenger trams- p o r t by motorcycle and motorscooter w i l l continue, a s w e l l t h e expamion of bus tra.ve1. These developments i n d i c a t e t h a t many r a i l ~ ~ a iy e s should l n anticipate further declines i n i n t e r c i t y t r a f f i c . 87. The outlook on l i g h t l y t r a v e l e d r o u t e s i s i n d i c a t e d by data. from Piadras ~ t a t c . l / Study of passenger t r a i n operations on 207 t r a i n s on meter gauge revealed t h a t only 6 p e r c e n t covered t h e axerage c o s t p e r k l l o n e t e r of running t h e t r a i n . Forty-one p e r c e n t covered l e s s than 50 p e r c e n t of d i r e c t opera.ting c o s t s . 88. Abandonment of many branch l i n e s w i l l have t o be c a r r i e d out, w i t h buses s u b s t i t u t i n g f o r r a . i l s e r v i c e . Already t h e t r e n d i n t h a t direction is cleer . Passenger-ltilometers by r a i l w a y f o r t h e I.1adra.s r e g i o n t o t a l ab0u.t 8.3 m i l l i o n p e r day, compared t o 26.3 m i l l i o n bus sea-t-kilon1e5ei.s p e r day. A t a n estima.ted 62 p e r c e n t load fa.ctor, t h e buses were s u p ~ l y i n g 16.3 pa.ssenger-kiloneters p e r day, o r double t h e r a i l t o t a l . Altogether, between 1955 2nd 1963 t h e r e was a 7 p e r c e n t d e c l i n e i n t h e m b e r of p2.s- sengers moving by r a i l and an 80 p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e i n t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y of bus s e a t s . 89. But r a i l passenger t r a f f i c i s a l s o t h r e a t e n e d on i n t e r c i t y r o u t e s by t h e growth of a i r t r a n s p o r t a s a s u b s t i t u t e f o r f i r s t c l a s s s e r v i c e . A i r p o r t t m s i n Fladras S t a t e i n c l u d e bla.dras, Tiruchi, Nadurai and Coim- babore. Only 1Jla.dra.s i s equipped f o r n i g h t fl-ying, and a i r s e r v i c e s by DC-3 and Folrlrer Friendship a i r c r a f t a r e v e r y l i m i t e d . For example, t h e r e i s one pla.ne a day from F4adra.s t o Madura.i v i a T i n c h i . Yet t h e g r m ~ t hof a i r pa.ssenger t r a v e l d u r i n g t h e f i r s t f i v e y e a r s s i n c e s e r v i c e began i n l95e/59 has been from 8,000 t o 24,000. This i s an i n s i g n i f i c a n t volume i n r e l a t i o n t o t o t a l rail s e r v i c e , but pa.ssenger kilometers b y a i r i n 1962/63 were a,lrea,dy one t h i r d t h e volume of f i r s t c l a s s r a i l s e r v i c e . A i r t r a v e l by 1970/71 has been estimated a t 38,000 t o h1,000 pa,ssengers. 90 I n t h e Ma,dras a r e a t h e railways g e t a l a r g e r s h a r e of tota.1 bus- r a i l t r a f f i c on t r i p s of one t o t e n kilometers. I n t h i s category r a i l a.ccounts f o r 53 p e r c e n t of a l l passengers, and bus 47 p e r cent. I n t h e 8 1 t o 90 k i l o m e t e r zone, r a i l accounts f o r 35 p e r c e n t and bus f o r 65 p e r c e n t of t o t a l patrons. - 1/ iqational Council of Applied Economic A2esearch, 3egional Transport - Survey of P$adrc?s Sta-te and Pondicherry, Preliminary geport, November 1964. 91 These a,nd o t h e r d a t a i n d i c a t e t h e importance of coordina.ted p l a n s f o r passenger t r a n s p o r t investments. The o p p o s i t e a,,pproach of planning passenger t r a n s p o r t s e p a r a t e l y f o r each method of t r a n s p o r t w i l l lea,d in- e v i t a b l y t o wrong d e c i s i o n s and wzsted resources through e a r l y obsolescence. C. - Other Coordination Problems - 92. There a r e , of course, o t h e r problems of f r e i g h t t r a n s p o r t coordi- n a t i o n besides t h e road-ra.il i s s u e . P o r t congestion i s o f t e n t h e r e s u l t n o t simply of inadequ.a.te p o r t ca.pacity, b u t o f t e n of inadequate f a c i l i t i e s f o r moving cargo away from tie docks quickly. L a d t r a n s p o r t systems a r e hea.vily taxed by delays i n 1oa.ding a,nd unloading opera.tions. The c o s t s of c o a s t a l shipping, u s i n g modern v e s s e l s and mechanized p o r t equipment, a l s o need t o be compared w i t h a l t e r n a t i v e r a i l t r a n s p o r t . 73 . The p o t e n t i a l s of petroleum p i p e l i n e s must 2 l s o be examined. The Planning Commission s t u d y of p i p e l i n e t r a n s p o r t i n d i c a t e s tha t f o r high 5 r a f f i c d e n s i t i e s p i p e l i n e c o s t s may be a s low a s 2.6 p a i s e p e r ton-kilometer under optimum u t i l i z a t i o n , compared t o 3 . 7 f o r broad gauge r a i l and 5.5 f o r meter gauge. Where t h e r e i s s p a r e r a i l c a p a c i t y t h e incremental c o s t of moving o i l works o u t t o 2.8 p a i s e p e r ton-kilometer f o r broad ga.uge and 4.1 pa.ise f o r meter gauge, compared t o t h e 2.6 p a i s e f i g u r e f o r nev p i p e l i n e investments . Liapidly i n c r e a s i n g petroleum needs i n c r e a s e s t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of economical movement by p i p e . TABLE 18. Movement a,nd Use of Petroleum Products P e r Cent Use of Petrol.eum Products by 1750 1960 Agri cul.ture Indus t q r Transport Domes t i c Other Tota.1 Method of TIo-vement P e r Cent of Origina,ting Tons, 1966 13ail Road Pipeline C o a s t a l Ship Tota.1 Source: Planning Commissiofi, Report on Commodity Tra.nsport S t u d i e s , Petroleum, October 1964, pp. 2 1 and 97. D. The Dynamics of Coordination 94 f If rzre look a.t 1 n d i a . I ~ u t u r e and t h e t r a n s p o r t ta-sks tha.t even minimum growth implies, t h e r e i s c l e a r l y no j ~ s t i f i c ~ z t i ofn r t h e negative o connotations of coordination a s a, means of reducing cotnp e t i t i o n and i n h i - b i t i n g t h e growth of new technologies. The need f o r c o o r d i n a t i o n i s not- t o r e s t r i c t , b u t t o h e l p accomplish t r a n s p o r t t a s k s of s t a g g e r i n g propor- t i o n s . I n d i a n r a i l f a x i l i t i e s a r e a l r e a d y o p e r a t i n g c l o s e t o ca,pacity. I n t h e next few y e a r s t h e y w i l l be h e a v i l y committed by- l a r g e i n c r e a s e s of i n d u s t r i a l t r a f f i c . The f a c t t h a t o t h e r tra.nsport media can assime pa-rt of t h e tra.nsport burdens of a. growing economy cam only be viewed a s a boon both t o t h e ra.ilways a.nd t o I n d i a . Road t r a n s p o r t ca.n t a k e over t h e s h o r t - h a u l t r a f f i c , s m a l l consignments, perisha.bles, a.nd consumer goods thak r a i l - tramsport i s i n h e r e n t l y ill-equipped t o accommodate. A t t h e same time, t h e railways can be f r e e d t o move t h e g r e a t volumes of i n d u s t r i a l ra.v m a t e r i a l s and o t h e r bulk commodities which t h e y a l o n e can carry, t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e r i s i n g volume of g e n e r a l merchandise t h a t r a p i d economic grazrth presumes. The development of road t r a n s p o r t v . 6 1 1 mean tha.t mamy p a r t s of t h e country which could n o t p o s s i b l y expect t o be served by r a i l can f o r t h e f i r s t time be provided w i t h t h e m o b i l i t y t h e y r e q u i r e . For only a l i m i t e d system of main i n t e r c i t y r o u t e s wa.rra.n%high-capacity r a i l t r a n s p o r t . 95
Groupe de la Banque mondiale · Working Paper
Report to the President of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the International Development Association on India's economic development effort (Vol. 12 of 14) : Transport policy
Voir le document original
Le texte intégral est hébergé par l’organisation qui le publie. lawenc.com indexe les métadonnées et renvoie vers la source officielle.
Texte intégral
Informations clés
Organisation
Groupe de la Banque mondiale
Type de document
Working Paper
Pays
Inde
Source
Banque mondiale