Tunisia - Post - Basic Education Study (Vol. 1 of 2) : The Main Report

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CONFIDENTIAL Report N' 12G70-TUN REPUBLIC OF TUNISIA POST-BASIC EDUCATION STUDY (In Two Volumes) Volume I: Main Report October 14, 1994 FILE COPY Population & Human Resources Division CONFIDENTIAL Maghreb & Iran Department Middle East and North Africa Region Report No; 12670 TUN Type: SEC ThiSomedt Ls i t eoted dittibuti =4na way be used by eidpi%t only in'the paformt of 16ek offid dutims. Its contents my n6t otherwise be aislosed witheut World bank authorizatiom CURRENCY EOUIVALENTS Currency Unit: Tunisian Dinar US$1.00 = TD 0.92 (as of May 1994) TUNISIAN FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 SCHOOL ACADEMIC YEAR September - June ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ATFP Tunisian Agency for Vocational Training ATE Tunisian Agency for Employment Baccalaurdat Secondary school exam at the end of grade 13 CFCFP Permanent Commission for the Coordination of Vocational Training CNFPE National Council of Vocational Training and Employment ETSP Education and Training Sector Project (Ln. 3054-TUN) FIAP Employment and Training Fund GNP Gross National Product MES Ministry of Education and Sciences MFPE Ministry of Vocational Training and Employment PDR Regional Development Programs SESP Secondary Education Support Project SMIG Guaranteed Minimum Wage TTS Technical Training Schools UNFT Tunisian National Union of Women VT Vocational Training DEFINIONS Tunisia is divided into 23 Gouverorats The yeow cover of this report was supervised and drafted by William Experton IMNIPH), and the green cover was supervised by Jacob Brognn IMNIPHL The report is based on results of ourveye ard studies prepared by Mosers. Jerousse and Solaux (Consultants- IREDU; University of Dijon, France), Desealien (Consultant) and Van Eaghen (MNAVPI. The statistical models were supervised in collaboration with our Tunisian counterparts: Mr. Moahem Ktari (Director of Planning, Ministry of Education and Science), Mr. Habib Bouaseida (Ministry of Employment -and Vocational Trainingi. and Mr. Monoaf Yousbachi (Director Human Resouroe&, Ministry of Plan and Regional Dvelopment). The study was financed by the MNIPH Dvision with support from the French Trust Fund. The study is also based on the results of the Education and Training Sector Project (3054-TUNI Mid-Term Review and the preparatory work for the proposed Secondary Education Support Project, both of which are managed by Mr. Jacob Bregman IMN1PM). Mme. Riboud 4EC4IC) and Mr. Holsinger (PHREEI were pear reviewars. Mme. Soumeh, Shuker and Agbo 4desk-topped the report. TABLE OF CONTENTS VOLUME I Page Nos BASIC DATA SHEET EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................. i CHAPTER I: CONTENT OF THE STUDY AND OVERVIEW OF SECONDARY EDUCATION IN TUNISIA FROM AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE .................................................... 1 Content of the Study ...................... ..d.. .. ... .. ... .I Brief of Overview of the Education System in Tunisia ................ . ....... 2 Level of Development of Secondary Education: International Comparison ........ 3 CHAPTER H9: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE REFORM IN SECONDARY EDUCATION ............................................ 8 CHAPTER III: LINKING VOCATIONAL TRAINING TO GENERAL SECONDARY EDUCATION ........................................... 11 Overview and General Trends of the Vocational Training System ................ 11 Internal Efficiency of theSystem .................................... 13 Analysis of the Reform and Strategies for Vocational Training .................. 14 The Law on Vocational Training Policy ............................... 14 Strategies for Developing Vocational Training ..... . 15 Tailormng the Capacity of the System to the Flow of School-Leavers from General Education ................................ 17 Linkage with Employment ........................................ 18 Transition from School to Work: which sectors should be given priority? ................................................ 19 CHAPTER IV: EFFICIENCY OF THE GENERAL SECONDARY EDUCATION ......... 20 A. The Breakdown of Resources between Secondary Schools Institutions Teachers ............................................ 21 Teacher Qualifications ........................................... 22 Non-Teaching Staff ............................................. 22 B. Unit Operating Costs in Public and Private Schools ......................... 23 C. Comparative Analysis of Public Schools' Educational Perform ance ... .............................................. 24 Disparities between Resources and Educational Performance ................... 24 The Baccalaur6at Examination as a Measure of Efficiency ..................... 24 Educational Performance of the Public Schools ........................... 25 D. Comparison of Educational Performance of Public and Private Schools ............................................... 28 E. The Social Selectivity of General Education in Tunisia ...... ................ 30 CHAPTER V: SCENARIOS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SECONDARY EDUCATION ...... 34 The Scenario Presented by the MES: Hypotheses Selected .................... 34 Evolution of Enrollment.......................................... 35 Teaching-StaffNeeds............................................ 35 Evolution of the Operating Budget ................................... 36 Discussion of the Scenario Proposed by the MES .......................... 36 Financial Viability bili. .. . . . . .. . . . .. . ...... 36 Educational Feasibility ........................................... 37 Choice of Educational Development .................................. 38 Generalization of Basic Education and Development of Secondary Education: SeekingBalance........................................ 40 VI: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................ 43 Conclusions ................................................. 43 Recommendations .............................................. 46 VOLUME II: STATISTICAL ANNEXES BASIC DATA SHEET TUNISIA Country Data GNP per capita (in US$) 1,807 1992 Total Population (millions) 8.2 1992 Population Growth Rate 1.9 1992 Life Expectancy 67 yrs 1992 Literacy rate (+ 15 years old) 65.3 1990 Male 74.2 1990 Female 56.3 1990 Urban Population (% of total) 56 1991 Education Data Enrollments (in thousands) lower-basic ed. 1,418 1993 upper basic ed. 385 1993 secondary ed. 295 1993 tertiary ed. 96 1993 Gross Enrollment Rates (%) pre-school ed. 7 1992 lower basic ed. 116 1992 upper basic & secondary ed. 46 1992 tertiary ed. 9.5 1992 Grade 6 completion rate (%) (lower-basic ed.) 67 1992 % of repeaters (lower basic ed.) 20 1992 Student/teacher ratio lower basic ed. 26 1992 upper basic & secondary ed. 23 1992 Education financing % of MES budget in: Government Budget 22.1 1993 GDP 6.3 1993 % of MES budget spent on: lower basic ed. 43.4 1992 upper basic ed. 37.3 1992 tertiary ed. 19.3 1992 Unit Costs (in DT): lower basic ed. 219 upper basic ed. 403 1992 secondary ed. 638 1992 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. This report examines secondary level education in Tunisia from both the general education and vocational training aspects. It discusses the level of education achieved by Tunisia, the reforms being undertaken at the secondary level and the scenarios envisioned by the government for the development of this level of education. More specifically, it examines how the general secondary education system is linked with vocational training and, in particular, the flow of students between these two systems and the job market. It highlights the factors that contribute to greater efficiency. Finally, recommendations are made as to strategies that will serve to guide the Government in its future choices where secondary level education and training is concerned. Secondary education in Tunisia 2. Tunisia has, since independence, assigned high priority to the development of education and has achieved a level of school enrollment that compares favorably with countries at similar levels of development. The mean duration of school enrollment was thus 8.3 years in 1989 and the enrollment ratio between the ages of 4 and 23 was 54%, compared to 7.6 years and 52% for the group of reference countries. Tunisia allocates 6.3% of GNP to the education sector, i.e. a percentage that is considerably higher than the world average and that of countries with a comparable per capita GNP. Strict regulation of student numbers and control of costs also assures Tunisia of a relatively balanced development of education. Universal school enrollment at the primary level is close to being achieved (the net primary level enrollment ratio is 90%), and after having focused its efforts on basic education (the transition rate from primary education to the senior cycle of basic education increased from 32% in 1986 to 56% in 1992-93) the Government now plans to reform and develop secondary education. Annual enrollment at this level is therefore expected to gather momentum and to increase from 5% to 8% in the course of the next decade. 3. General secondary level education (grades 7 through 13), under the authority of the Ministry of Education and Science (MES), has a total enrollment of 567,381 students in the public sector (the senior cycle of basic education has 342,305 students and general secondary education has 225,076 students). The private sector accounts for 12.4% of the total enrollment at this level. A vocational training system of limited size has an enrollment of 72,800 students in four different subsectors: (i) the training centers run by the Ministry of Vocational Training and Employment (MFPE) and the technical Ministries (22% of total enrollment); (ii) socially- oriented training facilities (18%); (iii) the private sector (25%); and (iv) apprenticeships (35%). 4. General secondary education has been profoundly changed by the Law of July 29, 1991. The reform process is very well advanced and the new curriculum is expected to be fully operational by 1996. This reform basically involves: (i) the introduction of a new curriculum with a nine-year basic education program and a four-year secondary education program, comprising a two-year core curriculum and a five-stream second cycle leading up to the baccalaurat; (ii) the elimination of the examination at the end of the sixth grade and the - ii - creation of a national examination at the end of the ninth grade providing entry into secondary education; (iii) an assessment process and specialization scheme that will allow specialization in the eleventh grade; (iv) changes in program content and class schedules; and (v) revision of the test- and exam-weight coefficients for each subject. 5. Vocational training is also undergoing changes as the result of the Law on Vocational Training Policy of February 17, 1993. Among the most notable advances attributable to this Law are the formulation of a new institutional framework, the new regulations governing apprenticeships and improvements in the regulations governing the establishment and approval of private training facilities. This law is too recent to have had any concrete impact on vocational training policy, particularly with respect to continuing training, relations with businesses and modernizing the management of vocational training centers. Linkage between general education, vocational training and employment 6. Most of the vocational training capacity is devoted to the initial training of young people leaving general education; its role in the training of workers for businesses is completely marginal. In 1992 the vocational training system,- as a whole, received about 55 % of the students (37% excluding apprenticeships, 22% if limited to the formal public sector) who dropped out of general education. The percentage of dropouts going to the vocational training system was lower at the level of the junior cycle of basic education (41 % for those who dropped out at the fifth and sixth grade) than in the senior cycle of basic education or at the secondary education level (about 70%). The development plans of the education system envisioned by the MES are bound to bring about some significant changes in the demand for vocational training. The annual number of dropouts in the first cycle of basic education (grades 1-6) will be reduced significantly due to improved internal efficiency of the system: from 96,000 pupils (7% of enrollments) in 1992/93 to 65,000 pupils (4.5% of enrollments) in 1996/97. The total annual number of dropouts in basic and secondary education (grades 1-13) will increase slightly from about 133,000 in 1992/93 to about 143,000 in 1996/97. The share of dropouts in the lower- basic education cycle will decrease from about 62% in 1992/93 to about 45% in 1996/97. Continued quality and efficiency improvements due to the effects of introducing basic education aim to further decrease dropout ratios over the 1997-2001 period. 7. Most of the training provided is at a rather low skill level which is not consistent with the projected future manpower needs of the economy. Twenty-nine percent of the students graduate with a diploma as a semiskilled worker, 60% as a skilled manual or office worker, 10% as a technician and 1% as a senior technician. A comparison of the number of graduates from vocational training with employment projections of the Government by skill level for the duration of the 1992-96 Plan (8th Plan) shows that the production of the vocational training system far exceeds the needs of the economy at the manual and office worker level while falling short at the technician level. - iii - 8. Job placement rates vary considerably, depending on vocational training sector type, level of qualification and skills taught. Employment insertion varies greatly depending on the type professionnal training, the level of qualification and specialization taught. The apprenticeship and the short-term training adapted in enterprise through employment program are the most efficient and the least costly to insert in the job market youth abandonning their basic education. Public training at a technical level, after 10 to 13 years of general education allow usually a good insertion. Efficiency of general secondary education 9. Manpower resources and teachers, in particular, are unevenly distributed among public secondary schools. On average, the student-teacher ratio is 21.7:1. This ratio varies, however, from a minimum of 11.7:1 to a maximum of 26.6:1. Thus 15% of the schools are overstaffed with teaching personnel (deviation of more than seven teachers compared to the expected average student-teacher ratio) and 16% of the schools are understaffed. Situations of overstaffing are apparent at the pilot high schools in the Northeastern and Sahel regions and at schools with the highest proportion of students in the science streams. Overstaffed schools in terms of teachers are also those staffed by the most qualified teachers. 10. Because of the staffing deviations in public schools, staff costs account, on average, for 88% of the total operating budget, staffing costs represent 75 % of the total budget. Unit costs at public schools vary widely from a minimum of TD300 to a maximum of TD948, the average being TD396. Larger deviations are found among schools with a boarding facilities than among day schools, where the unit costs range from TD330 to TD464. In the private sector, average costs seem to be lower (about DT21 1) -- undoubtedly because of the smaller share of staff costs in the operating budget (73%, with teaching staff accounting for 51 % of the total budget). It would be wise to interpret this comparison cautiously, since private schools are essentially day schools and employ many public sector teachers who are paid overtime. 11. In the Tunisian situation, where all secondary schools have more than 600 students, economies of scale are extremely limited. While the student-teacher ratio increases in step with total student enrollment and the unit cost simultaneously decreases. These gains are strong when the number of students goes from 200 to 600 (savings in terms of unit cost are in the region of 18%), but then decline fairly rapidly: drop in the unit cost as between a student in a school with an enrollment of 600 pupils and a student in a school with 2,200 pupils is only 10%. It is thus possible to envision schools of more modest size (but with over 600 students) as a means of providing the country with better coverage and thus responding to demand without compromising economic efficiency. 12. Amongst the factors explaining the baccalaur6at success (exam at the end of secondary education), the students social origin is a determinating factor. The study shows the common result is that the success rate grows with the proportion of students from more favored environment and teachers' children. These children are also those who are more likely go through their education without repeating a year. Some pedagogical characteristics also promote - iv - baccalaur6at success. However, a large part of these effects is explained by the fact that schools representing the best education conditions welcome students showing the most favorable social characteristics to success. 13. A large proportion of qualified and experienced staff teaching in schools (qualified teachers and grade "A" principals) and the availability of boarding facilities which promote education for students of more modest social backgrounds have a positive effect on baccalaurdat results. Also, pilot schools, taking into account their superior resources have better results than ordinary establishments. Thus, the success of pupils in schools, related to the efficiency of the education process, depends on: (i) the characteristics of the school and the over- or under supply of resources they get (in terms of quality of teachers, efficiency of administrative staff, boarding facilities, and pilot, private or public school); and (ii) social origin of pupils and teachers. 14. The overstaffing of schools in terms of teaching personnel, which runs counter to standards of equitable distribution, is no advantage when it comes to efficiency. The fact that schools that are relatively understaffed do not show worse baccalaurdat examination results would even suggest that similar cuts could be made in the student-teacher ratio without any detrimental consequences for the education provided. Such global cuts should not affect either the need to strengthen the quality of the teaching corps by adding teachers who have passed the agr6gation examination or the need to arrange for boarding facilities, since both these factors seem to be associated with significantly better baccalaurgat examination results. 15. Public and private schools differ considerably in terms of the student and the organizational structure. The public schools included in the sample contain, on average, more girls than private schools (53% compared to 27%), more children of teachers (6% compared to 3%) and a slightly higher proportion of children from privileged backgrounds (9% compared to 6%). Private education caters to more children who are in difficulty, as illustrated by the fact that almost all the students who attend private schools have repeated at least one year during their schooling compared to only 70% in the case of students attending public schools. The organizational structure of schools in the two sectors is rather different: (i) public schools have an average of 9% of category "A" teachers while private schools do not have any teachers in this category; (ii) private schools offer more arts courses than science courses (the proportion of students in private schools taking arts courses is 50% compared to 28% in the public schools). 16. Although inferior in terms of performance, private schools are comparable to public schools where efficiency is concerned, in terms of their costs and the student population they serve. About 75% of the difference in academic performance is actually attributable to the social background of the students and to the fact that private schools serve more children who have failed to progress at the normal rate than public schools. Furthermore, while the difference between the two types of schools is significant where expenditure per student is concerned, there is little difference in performance. If the unit cost is taken as the variable that accounts for the level of success in the baccalaurdat examination, it is apparent, in fact, that with a comparable unit operating cost and student population, private schools do not differ significantly from public schools when it comes to academic performance. 17. The Tunisian education system is highly selective. Approximately half of this selection process occurs within primary education, while the other half takes place during in secondary education. Out of 100 children who enter primary education, approximately 62 reach the end of grade 6 and 32 pass the competitive examination to gain access to grade 7 to go on to secondary education. Out of the 32 entering grade seven, 23 pupils reach grade nine (and make it into general secondary education) and 9 pupils stream into vocational training courses. Out of the 23 secondary school entrants (grade ten), 12 reach the final year of the cycle (grade thirteen) and 5 obtain the baccalaurgat (exam (giving access to university). However, the Government maintains that this situation is being modified by (i) the introduction of 9 years of basic education under the present education reform plan (implementation is expected to be completed by 1997/98); and (ii) the improvements in internal efficiency of the system. Out of 100 primary school entrants in 1989/90, about 70 pupils will be admitted to grade 7 by the year 1996/97, 50 pupils will complete grade 9 (of which 36 pupils will pass the basic education completion exam), and 22 pupils will reach the end of grade 13 (of which 15 are expected to pass the baccalaur6at exam with success). However, this would still represent significant losses in the system for the sake of maintaining high academic standards through selectivity and exclusion. 18. The social differences in academic success and specialization (general streams/vocational streams) are sizeable. Prior to the introduction of the reform, children from less privileged social backgrounds who entered primary education (66% of student enrollment in first grade) were more than twice as unlikely to obtain the general baccalaurgat as children from other social groups. In addition, children from less privileged backgrounds take the non- science streams more often than children from other backgrounds, 69% of them taking the arts stream in the final class and only 7.5% taking the mathematics stream. Also, within the science streams, their success rate in the baccalaurdat examination is lower than that of children from other socioeconomic categories (56% of the former obtaining the diploma, compared to 83% in the case of children from higher socioeconomic categories). Finally, there are some major regional variations in terms of the scholastic careers of students from the different social groups. The relative dropout rate for children in the "worker and equivalent" category between the first year of secondary education and access to the final class for the 84 public schools studied varies from -7% in the Greater Tunis region to -30% in the South (-14% in the Sahel, -16% in the Northeast, -18% in the Northwest/Central West regions). Scenarios for development of secondary education 19. The study has developed 4 scenarios (called MES, Al, A2 and A3), two of which (MES and A3) were accepted by the MES. The Ministry of Education and Sciences Planning Department has now adopted the A3 scenario to be implemented during the 9th Plan period. The A3 scenario foresees: (i) stabilization of enrollment in the first year of basic education (because of the,declining birth rate), based on the hypothesis that all children will be enrolled in school; (ii) improvement of performance and dropout rates in basic education; (iii) a transition rate from the junior to senior cycle of basic education (grades six to seven) increasing from 57% - Vi - in 1992/93 to 70% in 1995/96 and then stabilizing at this level until the end of the Ninth Plan; (iv) stabilization of performance at its current level in the senior cycle of basic education; (v) a transition rate of 55% from basic education (grade 9) to secondary education (grade 10). 20. This strategy provides for a major expansion of enrollment, with priority being given to secondary education, in which enrollment increases at an average annual rate of 8% compared to 6% in the senior cycle of basic education. Enrollment in upper-basic education (308,000 at the beginning of the 8th Plan, will increase to 473,000 in 1996/97 and then to 538,000 in 2001/2002, while enrollment in secondary education will increase from 210,000 to 294,000 and then to 362,000, respectively. Furthermore, in keeping with the objectives of the reform, this scenario foresees a major shift in the distribution of students among the various streams leading to the baccalaurgat examination toward the science streams. At the end of the second year of secondary education, 20% of the students will be steered into the mathematics stream, 20% into the experimental science stream, 12% into economics and management, 30% into the arts and human sciences and 18% into mathematics-technical subjects. 21. The A3 scenario proposed by the MES seems, a priori, to be affordable for Tunisia, on condition that (i) average annual budget growth of Higher Education remains below 7%; (ii) the MES investment budget annual growth for basic and secondary education does not exceed 4%; and (iii) the recurrent MES basic and secondary education budget annual growth does not exceed 4%; and (iv) the Government budget and GDP budgets grow by 6% annually. This scenario would allow the Government to allocate 23% of its budget (from which debt reimbursement is excluded) to the education sector compared to 22% at present. Thus, based on these assumptions, the total budget of the MES would show an average annual increase during the period 1992-2001 of 5.4% compared to the 6% growth rate projected for Tunisia's GNP and the 7.4% average rate of increase in national budget spending during the Eighth Plan. This scenario would thus lead to a stabilization in the share of the MES budget in the National Budget. 22. Both scenarios put forward by the Ministry of Education and Sciences depend on (i) the availability of qualified teachers; (ii) their ability to steer students into the appropriate streams; (iii) the ability to adjust the proportion of students specializing in the different streams of the baccalaurat; and (iv) limiting the growth of the public Higher Education budget to 3%. It would appear that Tunisia will be able to meet these requirements (the number of graduates with master's degrees in higher education will exceed total requirements for teachers for the period 1994-2002, i.e. 24,200 compared to 15,000). Meeting this need for teachers will run into competition with the considerable requirements of higher education (4,000 teaching staff will have to be hired for this level during the 8th and 9th Plans) and with the needs of other sectors of the economy. The very purposeful orientation strategy put in place by the reform is already producing encouraging results, since only 30% of the students went into the arts streams in 1993. Finally, taking into account the foreseeable growth of demand for Higher Education (at an average annual rate of more than 7%), new measures should be taken at this level to control the increase of costs such as the development of the private sector, the improvement of the productivity in the public sector and cost recovery. - vii - 23. The A3 scenario of the Ministry of Education and Sciences rests on the following positive objectives: (i) limiting the number of dropouts in the primary cycle (grades 1-6); (ii) increasing the percentage of pupils promoted from grade 6 into grade 7 from 57% in 1992/93 to 70 by 1996/97; (iii) limiting the percentage of pupils going from basic (at the end of grade 9) to secondary education (grade 10) from 70% in 1992/93 to 55% by 1996/97); and (iv) further improvements in internal efficiency in both basic and secondary education. The A3 scenario projects the number of upper-basic education pupils to increase from about 308,000 in 1992/93 to about 540,000 in 2001/02. The number of secondary education pupils is projected to increase from 209,000 to 362,000 over the same period. 24. The original MES scenario (called MES), by giving more priority to secondary education, does not provide for significant progress toward universal enrollment in primary education, since the net enrollment rate is expected to remain at about its current level of 89% throughout the period 1992-2002. Under this scenario the status quo will also remain unchanged in terms of performance and the quality of basic education; the number of dropouts from primary education is expected to hold steady at about 77,000 per annum and to increase from 25,000 to 36,000 at the senior cycle of basic education. This scenario, therefore, does not provide for the possibility of reducing illiteracy, but entails the need to develop more costly socially-oriented training programs and does nothing to help improve job insertion of young people. Finally, by focusing the bulk of the regulation of student flows, and hence selection, prior to completion of basic education, it does not help to reduce factors of inequity. 25. The other two alternative scenarios (Al and A2) that were studied in conjunction with the MES also suggested that a more balanced development of basic education was possible (as compared to the original MES scenario), through an increase in the passive rate between the 6th and 7th year from 65% to 73%. The A3 scenario (which has now been adopted by the MES) represents a compromise between these alternatives and the larger economic development objectives as formulated by the Government. Conclusions and recommendations 26. Tunisia is favorably placed to continue the ambitious policy it has instituted in the education/training sector, since implementation of the reform is already very well advanced, population growth is slackening and the country's economic prospects look bright. The success of the policy to develop secondary education might be jeopardized, however, if it fails to attack the imbalances and problems that persist in Tunisia's education system. 27. First, this study shows that it is budgetarily possible to develop basic and secondary education in a more balanced manner while still achieving better long-term results as regards enrollment rates. If greater priority continues to be given to basic education by improving quality and reducing selectivity it will be possible to lower illiteracy, avoid the need to develop more costly socially-oriented training programs for young people unable to find - viii - employment on completing their compulsory education, improve job placement prospects for young people and limit the factors that contribute to inequity. 28. Secondly, there should be better coordination between the education policy on general education and the policy on vocational training. Given the limited resources available, it is difficult for the vocational training sector to undertake the restructuring effort necessitated by the low level of efficiency and quality of the existing training programs. It cannot make the shift toward meeting the demand of the business world if it is also expected to increase its capacity to accommodate students who have dropped out of basic education and to maintain the training programs geared at skill levels that offer minimal job placement prospects. 29. Vocational training should (i) focus on training programs that are more skill-oriented, to be accessed on completion of basic education or following the first cycle of secondary education, with a view to meeting the requirements of businesses for technicians; (ii) develop apprenticeships and short job placement training courses; (iii) devote the bulk of its resources to improving the quality and efficiency of its training apparatus; (iv) encourage private initiatives and business involvement; (v) encourage in-plant training and continuing training through a financing arrangement that offers better incentives. 30. Thirdly, the development of private education would make it possible to reconcile the country's school enrollment goals and its budgetary constraints. At the secondary level, the private sector could, thanks to its dynamism, easily help to overcome the shortfall of places in the public sector created by a more deliberate policy to promote basic education. 31. It is.at the level of higher education, however, that the private sector can make its most important contribution. The sharp rise in demand at this level means that the public sector will be faced with difficult budgetary constraints if quality is also to be maintained. The study recommends various measures: (i) regulation of enrollment in public establishments of higher education at the time of university entry rather than by means of the baccalaurgat exam; (ii) lifting of constraints that hamper the establishment and development of the private education sector and, above all, the recognition of diplomas and degrees issued by the private education sector; (iii) cost recovery measures at higher and secondary education levels; and (iv) extension of student loan programs to include students in the private sector. 32. Lastly, greater efficiency in secondary eduction could be achieved by (i) reducing the disparity that currently exists in the distribution of staff among secondary schools; (ii) improve access to education by providing better geographical coverage and/or boarding facilities to schools; and (iii) continued strengthening of teacher qualifications by further improving pre- and in-service teacher training. CHAPTER I: CONTEXT OF THE STUDY AND OVERVIEW OF SECONDARY EDUCATION IN TUNISIA FROM AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE Context of the Study 1.01. This study of secondary education and training comes at a time when Tunisia is undertaking a far-reaching reform of its entire education and vocational training system. The Law N* 91 65 of July 29, 1991 on the education system, which incorporates Law N0 89-70 of July 28, 1989 on higher education initiated this reform and has already led, inter alia, to the organization of the studies and programs to be undertaken at each level of education, the evaluation system and the examination structure, the establishment of the conditions for the development of the private sector, the preparation of school textbooks and teaching aids, the organization of higher-level technological education. (List of decrees and orders attached as an annex.) More recently, the Loi d'Orientation (Policy Law) No. 93 10 of February 17, 1993 has initiated the restructuring of the vocational training sector. 1.02. This study also comes at a time when intensive development of secondary education and training is needed. The huge investments made by Tunisia in order to achieve universal primary school enrollment combined with its population growth rate have resulted in a high social demand for secondary education. Between 1982 and 1992 primary school enrollment (grades 1-6) increased at an average annual rate of 2.5%, which is similar to the population growth rate. All children in this age group now have access to primary education and the net primary enrollment ratio has increased from 86% in 1982 to 94% in 1993. As a result of the improved transition rate from primary education to the senior cycle of basic education' (it went from 33% in 1986 to 57% in 1992/93), demand for education is now shifting towards the secondary level. The annual average growth in student enrollment in grades 6 through 13 was 5 % in the public sector and 6% in both public and private sectors combined over 1982-92. According to Ministry of Education and Sciences (IES) estimates, this is expected to gather momentum and reach 8% in the course of the next decade. 1.03. Efforts to establish basic education in Tunisia are already being supported by the World Bank through the Education and Training Sector Project; Loan No. 3054-TUN. The Bank approved in August 1994 another loan (Loan No. 3786-TUN), to finance the Secondary Education Support Project (SESP); the SESP aims to develop new capabilities and establish new programs at upper-basic and secondary education levels. This study report is a summary of the 1. In Tunisia basic education is 9 years. Basic education is divided in two cyles: the lower-basic cycle (grades 1-6) and the upper-basic or preparatory cycle (grades 7-9). Secondary education has a duration of 4 years (grades 10-13). It consists of 2 years common orientation, followed by the chanelling of pupils into one of 5 secondary education tracks (literature, sciences, mathematics, technology and economics-management). At basic education level two selections take place: (i) at the end of grade 6 a selection test prepared at provincial level admits about 57% of the grade 6 completers into the upper-basic cycle; and (ii) at the end of grade 9 a national basic education exam. At the end of grade 13 the national secondary education exam (baccalaur6at) takes place, giving all pupils who pass automatic access to university education. -2- work that has been done by the Ministry of Education and Sciences (MES) in preparing the SESP project. To supplement this work, the Ministry of Vocational Training and Employment (MFPE) has undertaken a series of surveys and studies in order to develop its strategy and these have been used to prepare Chapter M, in particular. A list of these studies and surveys is attached in annex. 1.04. In that context, this study aims to discuss issues and answering questions on: (i) what are the characteristics of the Tunisian education system and how does the development of secondary education compare in the international context (chapter I); (ii) how is the reform being implemented at the secondary education level (chapter II); (iii) how does the development of general secondary level education tie in with that of vocational training and, specifically, what can be done at this level of education to facilitate the entry of school-leavers into the job market (chapter I); (iv) how do secondary education establishments perform in relation to the resources allocated (chapter IV); and (v) what are the possible scenarios for the development of secondary level education and the strategic choices that need to be made, particularly in light of the constraints on funding and resources (chapter V). Finally, chapter VI contains the conclusions and recommendations of this study. Brief Overview of the Education System in Tunisia 1.05. Since the Law of July 1991 the Tunisian education system consists of nine years of compulsory basic education (a six-year junior cycle plus a three-year senior cycle). Technical Training Schools (Ecoles de Qualification Techniques) have been created, in parallel, to cater to students unable to go on to the senior cycle of basic education. Four years of general secondary education, consisting of a two-year core curriculum and a two-year five-stream program of specialization in arts, experimental science, mathematics, economics and management, and technology studies, lead to the baccalaurgat examination which provides access to higher education. This system is complemented by a highly diversified vocational training system at the primary and secondary level. Tunisia's education system therefore provides 13 years of schooling prior to higher education, while most other countries offer 12 years or less. The structure adopted in the reform is rather unusual, only 25 countries opting for a four-year secondary education program (70% of all countries offer a program of six years or more). 1.06. The reform of basic education has, however, not yet brought about any fundamental changes in the organization of the educational establishments under the Ministry of Education and Science, and the transition from the sixth to the seventh grade is still an important milestone in terms of academic specialization and selection and one that actually determines access to secondary education establishments. In the public sector, the junior cycle of basic education (grades one through six), with an enrollment of 1,432,000 students in 1992, is taught in 3,940 primary schools. At the secondary level (grades seven through 13), the senior cycle of basic education, with an enrollment of 342,300 students, and general secondary education, with an enrollment of 225,000 students, are taught in 625 high schools and colleges. (See Table 1.1 in Volume II). The 40 Technical Training Schools had an enrollment of 5,311 students, -3- including 1,600 girls, compared to an installed capacity for 8,000 students. Vocational training is much more diversified and has an enrollment bf 72,800 students, 26,500 of whom are in apprenticeships. There are 88,000 students enrolled in higher education, distributed in six universities and 86 institutes and schools (of which 29 operate under the responsibility of other technical ministries).2 1.07. The private education sector is not very developed in Tunisia (5% of the total student enrollment); but it is at the secondary level and more particularly at the vocational training level that it plays its most important role. Private education at the primary level is marginal in importance (8,400 students) and its share of 0.6% of total enrollment remains stable. It is quality education, however (100% achievement rate), that has been developed in the urban areas by affluent families. At the general secondary level, the share of the private education is significant with 12% of the enrollments (72,000 students in 1992/93). It primarily recruits from among those who are having difficulty and who have failed the public school examinations. Its rate of growth is outstripping that of public education (12% average annual growth during the period 1987-92, compared to 6% for the public sector). With respect to vocational training (excluding apprenticeships) the capacity of the private sector is equivalent to that of the public sector (an enrollment of 17,900 students compared to 15,700 students in the public sector vocational training schools, to which must be added the 12,800 students in the Programmes de Dgveloppement Rigionaux - PDR (Regional Development Programs), the Union Nationale des Femmes Tumisiennes (UNFT) centers and the MES Technical Training Schools). The private sector, which specializes in training for trades in the service sector, is developing rapidly, its annual average growth rate being 18% between 1989 and 1992, compared to 6% in the case of the public sector. In higher education, the private sector is still at the embryonic stage, the first institutions currently being created in the form of professional training in the fields of management and information technology. (See Table 1.2 in Annexes, Volume 11) Level of Development of Secondary Education: International Comparison 1.08. In order to rank the level of development of education in Tunisia and that of secondary education, in particular, we compared it with a group of 16 reference countries with similar GNP levels (between US$900 and US$1,400) and with other Arab countries (See Tables 1.3 and 1.4). While the data from the 1991 UNESCO World Report on Education, used here differ slightly from national data and do not take account of recent developments in the education and economic arenas, (For example, the report gives a net primary enrollment rate for Tunisia 2. To facilitate international comparisons, we will, in the study on school operations and in the analysis of changes at the secondary level, continue to use statistics that distinguish between primary education (grades one through six) and secondary education (grades seven through 13). 3. The international comparisons are based on data from the 1991 UNESCO World Education Report. Therefore most education data are for 1989. Since these data predate the reform of basic education, pnmary education covers grades one through six and secondary education covers grades seven through 13. -4- of 95% in 1989, while it was 87% in 1992), they are homogeneous and therefore, adequate for the purposes of this type of international comparison. Graph 1: Structure of the Tunisian Education System before and after the Education Reform LavN of July 1991 Diploma B Ut Baccalaureat 2nd 2nd Economics & 13 Technical Secondary Literature Mathematics Science Technology Management Cycle Education (3 years) Cycle (4 12 years) T Ind. T. Eco. Litrature Orientation 2nd year 11 Math Scuences Mathfech. Onentauon Ist year 10 Orientation- National Exam E LoerEE Upper9 iSecondary L Basic Education :-Education 4 Cycle Cycle at Agel 6)7 Natona Selection Test at Provincial Level 6 Primary Lower Basic Education Education 4 Cycle Cycle 3 (Entry (Entry at Age 6) at Age 6)2 Before 1991 After 1991 -5- 1.09. Tunisia's success in slowing its population growth has had a prior beneficial effects on school enrollment. Tunisia is also gradually emerging from a period dominated by physical capacity constraints and entering a phase when a higher share of national resources can be devoted to the qualitative improvement of the system. In the past decade population growth has averaged 2.3%, dropping to 1.9% in 1993. This is moderate, compared to the average rate of growth in the Arab countries, which is 3.4%, and in the group of countries used for reference, which is 2.6%. The dependency ratio of 65%, which is the percentage ratio of the young-age population (aged 0-14) to the adult population (aged 15-64) likely to contribute to the financing of the education effort, is favorable in Tunisia, compared to the average for the Arab countries, which is 78%, and to the average for the reference countries, which is 76%. (See Tables 1.3 and 1.4 in Annex.) Table I: General Economic. Demographic and Education Indicators Countries whose GNP Per Capita is in the $900-1.400 range and Arab Countries (average values): % Bdndo GNP per Pis rc" m= Frowh nme Pop. coma. roe deation of GNP per 198O-89 Pop. grah soe Depml. S Urbn Ed.u . (4-23 ge school ca ($) (%) (mil.) 1980/9 . Su.e " Pop. ONP Budget buga InV. group) Cmal. Tunisia 1,260 0.6 8.2 2.5 65 54.3 6.3 14.8 10.6 54 8.3 Average for 1,063 -0.23 2.59 76 4.2 17.4 10.7 51.9 7.6 countries with per 8 capita ONP in the $900-1,400 range Average for Arab 4,250 -3.0 10.2 3.4 ,260 0.6 8.2 2.5 65 54.3 6.3 countries Source: 1991 UNESCO World Education Report, 1991. V Population aged 0-14 expressed as percentage of the population aged 15-64 1.10. With 6.3% of its GNP allocated to education and vocational training, Tunisia ranks among those countries with the highest proportion of their resources to this sector. This level is equivalent to the average spent by the Arab countries (6.6%) and higher than the world average (5.5%) and than countries with a comparable per capita GNP (4.4%). In terms of share of its education budget in the total national budget, on the other hand, Tunisia, with 15 %, ranks below the Arab countries (17%) and the group of reference countries (17.4%). Since 1989, however, the share of the education-training sector budget in the national budget has increased considerably, reaching 19.5% in 1993, the percentage of GNP remaining stable at 6.3%. Both this trend and the high level of resources allocated to education reflect the priority given to this sector in the context of national development. -6- 1.11. A comparison of the level of expenditures with the overall quantitative results of the education system shows that Tunisia is using its resources fairly effectively in this sector, these figures being slightly higher than the average for the reference countries. Two indicators of overall performance are available: the first is the gross enrollment ratio in the 4-23 age group, published by UNESCO and the second is the mean duration of school attendance at the national level, calculated on the basis of the net enrollment ratio and the theoretical duration of school attendance at the various levels of education. Tunisia achieves a gross enrollment ratio of 54% between the ages of 4 and 23, compared to 51% for all the Arab countries and 51.9% for the group of countries used for reference. The mean duration of school attendance in Tunisia is 8.3 years, which equals the average for the Arab countries and exceeds the average for the group of reference countries, which is 7.6 years (See Tables 1.3 and 1.4 in Annex). 1.12. Graph 2, below, shows that there is no correlation between the mean duration of school attendance and the proportion of public expenditure on education as a percentage of GNP. This wide dispersion in the situations observed reflects the diversity of the education systems and, in particular, the varying share borne by the private education system in the different countries. Overall, the situation in Tunisia seems quite favorable. The large amount of public financing devoted to education in Tunisia is largely attributable to the fact that free education is made available at all levels of the system and to the relative weakness of the private education system. -7- GWah 2: Mean duration of school attendance at the national level and public expenditure on education as percentage of GNP Average Duration of schooling catar *Jordan 10 l ahrain *Jamics UJAE. Phitippinev .Syria *Egypt* Algeria 8 ut'* Peru *Kuwa It *Oman .Iraq *Tunisia 6 Paraguay *Thai land *Swaziland EL Salvador * Coturnbla *RUmb.ras' 4 *Cmeroun, g aud. Ar. GuatemaLs N orocco Mauritania I V. Coast . 2 ~aof GDP public expenditures share of education 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1.13. The overall efficiency of resources allocated in relation to school enrollment is attributable to the relatively well-balanced development of education (in 1992, primary education accounted for 44% of the total education operating budget, secondary education for 37% and higher education for 19 %) and effective cost control. A comparison of the enrollment ratio at each level does, in fact, show that Tunisia has assigned greater priority to the development of universal school enrollment at the primary level than to the development of the higher levels where the per-student cost is higher. According to UNESCO data, Tunisi4L had a net primary enrollment ratio of 95 % in 1988 compared to 82.7 % on average in countries with a comparable income level, and a gross higher education enrollment ratio of 7 % compared to 12 % (See Table 1.5 in Annex). At secondary education level Tunisia had a gross enrollment ratio of 44% compared to 42 % in comparator countries. This balanced development is the result of a strict regulation of student flows, using a system of highly selective entrance examinations at each level. -8- CHAPTER II: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE REFORM IN SECONDARY EDUCATION 2.01. The Law of July 29, 1991 is the second reform of the education sector since Tunisia gained independence. It places great emphasis on the basic guiding principles of school organization and on the values which education should promote. These basic principles are: (i) national identity and awareness of citizenship based on promotion of civic sense and emphasis on the Arabic language; (ii) an openness which integrates Tunisian culture, and the Arab-Islamic civilization with the modem world and humanism; (iii) tolerance, including fighting against all types of discrimination based on sex, social origin, race or religion; (iv) aptitude for work regarded as a moral value; (v) continuing education to promote self-learning among young people to better cope with the rapid changes. It aims to transform in depth and at each level of the system: the programs of study, including schedules, course assessment and content, organization of schools, teacher regulations, preparation of school textbooks and organization of examinations. (See Annex II in Volume II) The measures adopted in the legislation already adopted amount to considerable progress in the field of education. They provide the means needed in order to coherently reconcile the following three basic objectives: (i) instituting the conditions needed for the development of a modem culture rooted in the country's Arab-Islamic heritage, which will be able to adapt to the demands of technological progress; (ii) expanding the nation's skills bank by increasing enrollment in basic education; (iii) preparing the country's future elite through the organization of the academic specialization-selection process at the secondary level and the restructuring of higher education. Their impact on education can only be assessed in the long term, when it will be possible to assess the curriculum as it is taught. This chapter will therefore be limited to describing the progress made in implementing the reform and highlight some of the aspects specific to secondary education. 2.02. The reform process is well advanced, all the implementation decrees having been published in 1993. At the secondary education level it basically involves: (i) the introduction of a new curriculum with a nine-year basic education program and a four-year secondary education program, comprising a two-year core curriculum and a second five-stream cycle leading up to the baccalauriat; (ii) the elimination of the examination at the end of the sixth grade and the creation of a national examination at the end of the ninth year providing entry into secondary education; (iii) an assessment and orientation process that will allow specialization in the eleventh grade; (iv) the renewal of the programs contents and teaching schedules; and (v) establishing a vocational training strategy that responds to the new economic needs. 2.03. In 1993/94, the reform reached the 5th year of the junior cycle of basic education and brought about a significant increase in enrollment at this level. Repeater rates declined and the transition rate from the junior to the senior cycle of basic education (from 6th to 7th grade) improved from 33% in 1986 to 40% in 1989 and to 58% in 1993. With the elimination of the -9- national examination4 for promotion to 7th grade, this rate is expected to improve even further. The MES estimates that a transition rate of 70% (of grade 6 completers) will be reached once the introduction of basic education is completed by 1997/98. 2.04. However, this study found that reform of basic education has not yet fully accomplished its objectives. If the transition rate from sixth to seventh grade is maintained to 70% in an effort to sustain quality, progress toward universal school enrollment will be limited. Most children who will dropout before completion of grade 6 will remain at risk of "regressing to illiteracy" (Law of Education of July 29, 1991, Article 7). Selectivity is higher than indicated by this rate because it is applied at the end of grade 6 to a population of pupils that has already been reduced by dropouts during the first six school years. In fact, in 1992/93 only about 40% of this original grade 1 entry group (or roughly, of the corresponding age group of 6-11 year olds) entered the second cycle of basic education. It is unclear whether this type of selectivity reflects: (i) the resistance of public opinion and of teachers, in particular, to the idea of broadening access to the senior cycle of basic education; (ii) the inability of teaching methods to overcome the causes of student failure; (iii) the inadequacy of measures (e.g. free school books) to limit the consequences of the socio-economic situation of students' families; (iv) the shortage of resources to improve the quality of teaching at the basic education level; (v) the characteristics of the school infrastructure itself (insufficient geographical coverage), separation of the 1' and 2' cycles of basic education in distinct establishments. It is hard to find answers to this question without an analysis of the causes of student failure and a quality assessment in the form of an external evaluation of the learning process. 2.05. However, according to the MES the objectives of the Education Reform Plan that have been achieved include: (i) improved promotion rates; (ii) an important reduction in the dropout rates during the first 4 years of the lower-basic education cycle; and (iii) improved transfer rates from grade 6 to grade 7 (57% in 1993/94, reaching 70% by 1997/98). The MBS also confirms that the number of dropouts in grades 1 through 13 will decrease from an annual average of 97,000 in 1991/92 to about 55,000 by the year 2000/01 (of which 22,300 pupils at the end of grade 6). Based on these calculations, the MES estimates that at present about 65% of the age group of 1-11 year old enter the upper-basic education cycle (while that was 32% before the introduction of basic education). In addition, the MES has taken the following measures which contribute to improved internal efficiency and quality of the system: (a) improved school environment (working) conditions for pupils and staff ; (b) improved supply of didactical equipment in basic and secondary schools and inservice training programs for teachers to ensure an effective use; (c) social measures to promote equitable schooling conditions 4. Starting 1994/95, the national exam at the end of grade 6 will be replaced by selection tests (or provincial exams) developed and implemented under the responsability of provincial education authorities. However, the central MES will continue to monitor and evaluate these tests to ensure comparability and equity between provinces. The first national exam will then take place at the end of grade 9 and pupils passing this exam will have obtained the basic education completion diploma (giving them access into secondary education). The MES will gradually decrease the number of pupils admitted to secondary education from 70% of the grade 9 completers (at present) to 50% (by 1997/98). In spite of this measure secondary enrollments will increase significantly due to improved quality and efficiency in basic education. - 10 - for rural children; (d) revision of all curricula and testing and exam methods; and (e) improved pre- and inservice training for teachers and admiiistrative staff. The MES also continues to mobilize the support of the general public and professional educators for the ongoing reform to make sure that its momentum is not jeopardized. 2.06. The Technical Training Schools (TTS) were established in 1992 to accommodate students at the end of the sixth grade who have exhausted their entitlement to enrollment in basic education (students who have already repeated twice). In 1992, these schools had an enrollment of 5,300 pupils (of whom about 1,560 were girls), while having an installed capacity for 8,000 pupils. The three-year course they offer consists of technical training in fields such as sewing and dressmaking (34% of the students), carpentry (17%), electricity (13%) and others such as building and metal construction (36%). The creation of these schools has enabled the MES to convert the former secondary technical schools, and to redeploy teachers of technology education who have refused to transfer to the Ministry of Vocational Training and Employment. The MES plans to set up about thirty new Technical Training Schools, thus bringing the total capacity up to 20,000 pupils. This training seems costly in terms of the unfavorable teacher-pupil ratio of 1 to 10 (524 teachers) and in terms of the limited pedagogic content (the training essentially consists of 20 hours of workshop). In view of their recent creation, it is not yet possible to say whether these schools will make finding a job easier. 2.07. At the secondary level, implementation of the reform is progressing quickly. The core curriculum of secondary education has been in place since 1991/92 and the new baccalauriat streams were introduced at the start of the 1993/94 academic year and will be fully operational by 1996. However, the goal of correcting the imbalance that exists among the different baccalaurdat streams is very ambitious. While the humanities stream accounts for 53% of the students enrolled in secondary education and 51 % of the total humanities baccalaurgat candidates (those who register to take the exam, including free candidates) in 1992, the aim is to bring down this proportion to 30% by the year 2000/01. The MES hopes to achieve this goal by delaying course specialization until the eleventh grade, strengthening program content, setting specialization goals at each of the upper-basic education schools and establishing guidance services at each upper-basic and secondary school. In 1993/94, following orientation at the end of grade 11, the results are encouraging (of the pupils entering grade 12, about 30% went into the literature stream, 42% into the mathematics, 13% into technology and 15% into economics and management stream). 2.08. The reform also addresses the much deeper problem of quality in education and of equity in the course specialization/selection process, which starts much earlier at the level of basic education. The differences in the achievement rate in the baccalaurdat confirms the hierarchization implicit in the different streams at the expense of the arts. The achievement rate in the arts baccalaurdat is much lower than that for the other streams: 28% compared to 43 % in the experimental science stream and 61 % in the case of mathematics (June 1992 session, public and private). Girls account for 54% of the total number of students (in June 1993) who took the arts baccalaurdat exam , compared to 40% girls in the case of experimental science and 28% in mathematics. Private secondary education caters in particular to students who are in a - 11 - failing situation in the public schools and mainly in humanities (63 % of the candidates from private schools graduate from the humanities stream). The achievement rates in the baccalaurda are also closely correlated to whether or not students have fallen behind (whether or not students have repeated any years) and to the students' social background. Children from less privileged environments are more strongly represented in the arts streams and their achievement rate is much weaker in the mathematics stream. 2.09. In implementing the reform, care must be taken to limit the geographical disparities and to improve equity of access and orientation. Starting with school mapping, this is essentially a matter of ensuring that all the streams and curriculum subjects are available, that resources -- and particularly teachers -- are well distributed and that school size and boarding school establishment are consistent with school location. The baccalaurgat achievement rate varies widely in public schools according to the governorates. In June 1992 the average achievement rate in Siliana was 32%, as compared to 59% in Sfax. A link can also be seen between the achievement rate in the baccalaurdat and that in the examination for transition from sixth to seventh grades. Of the 10 governorates that obtain higher than national average achievement rates in the baccalaurat, eight have higher average achievement rates in the examination for transition from sixth to seventh grade, and among the 13 governorates which rank below the national average in the baccalauriat, nine rank below the national average in the examination for transition from sixth to seventh grade. These observations show that the development and internal efficiency of secondary education are linked to performance at the basic education level and at its junior level, in particular. No plans can be made to reduce regional disparities in secondary education until a reduction in regional disparities in basic education has first been brought about. CHAPTER III: LINKING VOCATIONAL TRAINING TO GENERAL SECONDARY EDUCATION Introduction 3.01. For general secondary school-leavers, vocational training is the passage to employment. This chapter will study how the vocational training sector should position itself in relation to two requirements: (i) that it provide general secondary school-leavers with skills and good employment prospects; (ii) that it provide enterprises with the skilled labor they need. The decisions to be made in setting the strategy and dimensions of vocational training will have to be coordinated with choices made regarding the development of basic and secondary education. Overview and general trends of the vocational training system 3.02. The vocational training system has an enrollment of 72,800 students in four different sub-sectors: (i) the training centers run by the MFPE and the technical Ministries - 12 - (22% of the students enrolled in 161 training centers); (ii) socially-oriented training (18% of the students enrolled in the 169 PDR centers, the 116 UNFT centers and the 40 Technical Training Schools); (iii) the private sector (25% of the students enrolled in 315 centers) and (iv) apprenticeships (36% of the students enrolled). The table below provides data on vocational training in Tunisia.' 3.03. Most of the vocational training provided is at a rather low skill level. 29% of the students graduates with a diploma as a specialized worker, 60% as a skilled worker or employee, 10% as a technician, 1% as a senior technician. (Volume II, Annex III, p.1): Basic Data on Vocational Training! in Tunisia 1992/93 Provider No. of Installed No. of No. of No. of MFPE 82 10,703 10,381 7,558 5,310 Other Technical Ministries Total 79 6,707 5,337 3,586 2,396 Including: Agriculture * (22) (2,500) (2,200) (1,900) (824) Fisheries (11) (750) (523) (490) (438) Health (19) (1,200) (602) (200) (202) Tourism (5) (1,712) (1712) (720) (660) Crafts (20) (485) (240) (240) (240) Transport (1) (60) (60) (36) (32) Private Sector 315 25,000 17,880 15,561 9,637 PDR 169 6,272 4,610 4,610 4,610 UNFT 116 4,812 2,883 2,883 2,883 Total Vocational Training 761 53,494 41,091 34,198 24,836 Technical Training Schools ** 40 8,000 5,311 5,311 4,780 ATFP-run apprenticeships n.s. n.s. 22,135 18,361 12,275 ONA-run apprenticeships n.s. n.s. 4,314 1,300 1,000 Total apprenticeships n.s. n.s. 26,449 19,661 13,275 GRAND TOTAL n.s. n.s. 72,851 59,170 42,891 Source: Evaluation work on the first year of the Eighth Plan N.B.: training centers belonging to businesses are not counted here * Estimated on the basis of statistics by center provided by the Ministry of Agriculture **Efficiency put at 90% 5. Continuing training in enterprises is not included in this overview for lack of available information. This study focuses on initial training, in any case. - 13 - 3.04. The total capacity of vocational training facilities has increased significantly (+22% between 1989 and 1992), essentially because of the dynamism of the private sector (+61% between 1989 and 1992) and, to a lesser degree, because of the development of socially- oriented training (+14%). By contrast, the capacity of the most technical public vocational training facilities has remained virtually stagnant and their relative importance has declined (falling from 36% of the total annual capacity, not counting apprenticeships, to 28% in 1992). Some Ministries, such as the Ministries of Health and Agriculture, have reduced their training capacity because of the difficulties encountered by the newly trained youth on the job market. Internal efficiency of the system 3.05. The organization of vocational training programs is far from optimal and efficiency rates are low. With respect to the technical vocational training for which the MFPE is responsible it is found that (i) the average efficiency rate is only in the region of 75%, (ii) the dropout rate is higher than 20% in certain sub-sectors (wood, textiles and clothing), (iii) the average size of the vocational training centers is very small (fewer than 50 students in training per establishment), which increases training costs and makes it more difficult to steer and manage the training programs, (iv) there is little diversification in the specialized fields of training offered, (v) the content of the training is il-suited to the needs of businesses, (vi) there is little involvement of businesses in the training process and there are practically no schemes that combine training and work, (vii) the instructors have a poor level of training, (viii) there is a shortage of teachings equipment. In the case of socially-oriented training, the absence of any monitoring of what is learned presents a problem with regard to its purpose and its external efficiency. Taking the public vocational training sector as a whole, the resources available are insufficiently utilized (only a 80 to 85 % occupancy rate of the infrastructure in 1989, low average hourly load [charge] of the trainers). In addition, the apprenticeship program is inadequately organized and only 20% of the apprentices have access to the complementary training courses provided for under the Law. 3.06. The financing system for continuing training and the system for the refund of the Vocational Training Tax are totally ill-suited. In 1989 only 29,000 people had taken advantage of the continuing training programs in 345 businesses (having submitted a request for a rebate) out of a total of about 500,000 potentially interested workers and 30,000 businesses subject to the tax. Thus, much of the funding earmarked for continuing education is spent on public sector initial training. The measures adopted two years ago by the MFPE in order to simplify the procedure are still insufficient to significantly change this situation. Moreover, the vocational training establishments are not organized to respond to the needs of businesses in continuing training. This has the effect of cutting the prospects of any supplementary funding and, in particular, any teaching assistance which could represent a direct relationship with the businesses. -14 - Analysis of the reform and strategies for vocational training 3.07. The establishment of a Ministry of Vocational Training and Employment and the studies preparatory to the Eighth Plan have shown clearly the Tunisian authorities' intention to implement a more active policy in the vocational training sector. The Law on Vocational Training Policy helped clarify the overall legal framework. At the same time, an effort to formulate a strategy has been undertaken by the Plan and the MFPE. Above all, an unprecedented determination seems to exist to see that the vocational training policy is implemented, as reflected in a detailed plan of action, the execution of which is monitored on a very regular basis by the MFPE. A close look at the various components resulting from these efforts indicates that they need to be completed and continued. The Law on Vocational Training Policy 3.08. The purpose of the Law of February 17, 1993 is to institute a new institutional structure and to "update and relax the regulations governing apprenticeships and on-the-job training, to fill a legal void where schemes combining training and work are concerned, and the operating conditions of private establishments, to establish the procedures for evaluating programs and for validating diplomas, to institute permanent mechanisms for consultation and coordination among the different training partners so as to be able to decide on scope of action and the rights and responsibilities of each, to define practical ways and means for businesses to participate in developing the training system."" 3.09. The Law has already made progress possible in numerous areas. (See Volume II, Annex M, p.2.) The following are some of the key elements: a. The formulation of a new institutional framework: The responsibilities of the Ministry of Vocational Training and Employment (MFPE) are specifically identified in the Law, which assigns it a direct role in (i) establishing the charter of vocational training, [cane de la formadon professionelle], formulating the curriculum, conditions of access and awarding of diplomas, together with (ii) organizing and monitoring the apprenticeship scheme; (iii) approving and monitoring private training establishments; (iv) promoting continuing education. To advise it on setting strategies for vocational training, a National Council of Vocational Training and Employment (CNFPE) is established, which will be assisted by a Permanent Commission for the Coordination of Vocational Training (CPCFP) and by the Sectoral and Regional Vocational Training and Employment Councils (CS&RFPE). b. The regulations governing apprenticeships: which have been updated (minimum age raised from 14 to 15 and maximum age from 18 to 20) and made more 6. Eighth Plan, Sectoral Commission on Vocational Training and Employment, in "Prospects for developing the vocational training system." - 15 - precise (Defining MFPE's role with respect to the recording and execution of apprenticeship contracts). c. The clarification of the operating conditions of private training: general specifications to be established by the MFPE, approval prior to setting up a private establishment or making changes in the training offered. 3.10. This legislation is still insufficient, however, and needs to be made more precise and supplemented by decrees in order to be fully operational. The areas that need to be dealt with in greater depth are the following: d. Coordination among the various public agents of vocational training: If CNFPE seems to be the place where coordination can be undertaken, its role, composition and operational organization need to be spelled out further. e. The linkages between vocational training and the national education system: Vocational training is presented as a component of the national education system, qualification and employment, but the legislation does not specify how the linkage among the various components is to be achieved. f. Continuing training: The legislation merely provides some general definitions and mentions the recently formed National Center of Continuing Training but does not state how the training will be organized within the businesses and how all private and public agencies with technological know-how are to be encouraged to take part in the continuing training. Strategies for developing vocational training 3.11. In keeping with the goals of the Eighth Plan and ever since the creation of the MFPE, major efforts have been mounted to formulate a strategy to develop vocational training in Tunisia. (See Volume II, Annex Ell, p.3 for a diagram illustrating the various objectives of the Eighth Plan, MFPE strategy regarding vocational training and components of the 1992-96 Plan of Action.) It should be pointed out that the MFPE is still in the process of finalizing its plan of action. 3.12. The Eighth Plan provides for two major objectives to be pursued simultaneously: (i) to tailor the vocational training system to the quantitative and qualitative needs of the economy and (ii) to promote the training and placement of priority target populations (youth, women, migrants and the handicapped). These objectives7 have four weaknesses: (i) a choice is not really made between the economic purpose of vocational training and the more socially- oriented purpose of accommodating leavers from general education and the strategy aimed at 7. Eighth Plan, Sectoral Commission on Vocational Training and Employment, Vocational Training Subcommission, in "Prospects of Developing the Vocational Training System." - 16 - doubling the training capacity is not tied to demand; (ii) the operational objectives are insufficiently quantified (number of centers to be opened, number of places to be offered); (iii) the reorganization of vocational training agencies currently in progress is not taken into account. 3.13. MFPE strategy is very interesting in approach, particularly in terms of improving the quality of vocational training. In effect, it gives priority to partnerships with businesses, to training schemes that combine work with training, to improving apprenticeship training and training geared to women and to the reform of the vocational training agencies in order to improve the management of the system, optimize the use of existing capacity and improve the quality of the programs of study and teaching methods. These general strategies have yet to be made operational, however. 3.14. Implementation of MFPE plan of action is well advanced in the following areas: (i) implementation of new administrative and vocational agencies, including, in particular the splitting of the Office of Vocational Training and Employment (OFPE) into two agencies: Agence Tunisienne de l'Emploi and Agence Tunisienne de Formation Professionnelle; (ii) the strengthening .of MFPE capacity to monitor vocational training; (iii) increasing vocational training capacity by improving the use of existing centers (2,500 more training places) and also establishing new sector centers (23 centers currently being set up to bring the total capacity up to 5,200 training places). 3.15. On the other hand, there are programs and projects in several key areas on which little progress has been made: (i) the strengthening of the apprenticeship system (the legislation has been modernized but no concrete measures have been taken to increase the supervision of apprentices, or assist businesses in the redeployment of their staff (a single study is in progress); (ii) the strengthening of the continuing training system; (iii) increase the system's responsiveness to the skill needs of businesses and improving the job placement information system; (iv) the modernization of the operating and management procedures in the new sector centers (increased liaison with businesses, institution of continuing training programs, teaching autonomy and flexibility, developing of own resources). 3.16. Tunisia has gradually instituted a complex training-job placement system that enables young people who leave school after the senior cycle of basic education to take a variety of subjects geared to employment, as is shown in the diagram on student flows in Volume H, Annex M, p. 6. The youngest (who leave school between the first and fourth years of general education) have to join the inactive population and wait a few years before being entitled to take some vocational training or seek a job. About 40% of all the other youth who leave school after the general education level (i.e. about 43,000 of the 108,000 who leave between the fifth and 13th year) receive information and vocational guidance. Forty-five percent go on to private training or self-employment, 33 % are placed in apprenticeships and 22% in vocational training centers run by the MFPE or other technical ministries. Youth who do no seek information and vocational guidance tend to find jobs such as household help or to unskilled labor in the agricultural and informal urban sector, traditional apprenticeships or socially-oriented training programs (PDR and UNFT). In addition to these various training sectors, which are not - 17 - mutually exclusive because of re-enrollment phenomena [phdnomnes de rdinscription], flows toward employment are facilitated by placement programs available to seekers of unskilled jobs (RIAP) and secondary school graduates (CEF and SIVP2). 3.17. Annex I, p. 7 (Volume II) attempts to make a quantitative comparison of education-training-employment flows in 1992/93. These findings should be treated with caution in view of the numerous approximations that were necessary in order to compare the data, which are neither complete nor standardized (harmonisies). They, however, provide a good perspective of the issue of the sizing of the vocational training apparatus in relation to the flows of graduates from general education and to the hiring needs of the economy in terms of skilled personnel.! Tailoring the capacity of the system to the flow of school-leavers from general education 3.18. In 1992, the vocational training system served about 55% of the students who dropped out of general education (37% excluding the apprenticeships, 22% if limited to the public vocational training sector) . This proportion has improved significantly in recent years with the development of the private sector, since it is estimated that vocational training served about 40% of dropouts in 1989. The recovery rates for dropouts from the school system were 41% in 1992, in the case of those leaving the fifth and sixth grades; 70% in the case of those leaving the seventh, eighth and ninth grades; and 67% in the case of those leaving the tenth, eleventh and twelfth grades.' (See Volume H, Annex EI, p.8.) 3.19. The reform of general education and the institution of basic education and new secondary education streams, in particular, should bring about increased flows of school-leavers from general education and hence in the demand for vocational training. Based on MES estimates, the tables in Volume II, Annex M, p. 9-11, show that the overall number of dropouts in 1992/93 and 1996/97 would increase from about 130,000 to more than 143,000: (i) the number of dropouts at grades 1-4 is expected to decrease in line with the objectives of the education reform plan; (ii) the number of dropouts at grades five and six should also drop (below 10% of pupil; (iii) demand for training should increase sharply at the level of grades 7-9 8. The figures on student drop-outs are those calculated by the MES. The numbers of students served per year by the vocational training system were collected by the mission to the MFPE. The number of students placed by the vocational placement services were calculated in the recent evaluation study of these services, which was undertaken at the initiative of the Ministry of Planning. The employment figures were calculated by the mission. This comparison was made difficult by the lack of consistency among the training sectors (e.g. the different training sectors recruiting at levels 5 through 6A, 7 through 9A and 10 and 13A), all lead to skilled worker diplomas [dipl6mes d'ouvriers qualifids]. Four levels of school leaving were adopted, according to the level at which the student left basic education (1 through 4, 5 through 6, 7 through 9, 10 through 13) and roughly compared with three qualification or skill levels (unskilled manual workers and laborers; specialized workers, office workers and skilled manual workers, highly-skilled manual workers; technicians). 9. Excluding, as does the Eighth Plan, those leaving during the first four grades of general education, considered unsuitable, because of their age, for immediate entry into the job market or vocational training. The drop-out figures are those calculated by the MES. - 18 - in proportion to the increase in enrollments for that level (over 40%); and (iv) demand for training is also expected to increase among those who leave school at grades 10 through 13 in proportion to the increase in enrollments at that level. 3.20. This foreseeable trend in the demand for training deriving from the number of students dropping out of general education should not automatically lead to an increase in the capacity of the vocational training system. In effect, to the extent that the absorption capacity of the job market seems to be limited where skilled labor is concerned (see points 3.21 et seq.) and since it has been clearly established that one year of vocational training is much more costly to the State than one year of general education, it becomes economically unjustifiable to create new vocational training places to serve young people who have had to drop out of general education. Linkage with employment 3.21. With a rate of 15.3 % in 1989, unemployment essentially affects young people seeking their first job: 70% of the unemployed are under 30 years of age and the highest unemployment rate is for the 18-19 age group (34%). Unemployment increased significantly over the past 15 years, essentially under the effect of the demographic momentum and increasing participation in the work force by the population in general, and by women in particular. The education level of the unemployed has increased significantly, while 50% of the unemployed did not have a primary education level in 1975, only 20% fell into this category in 1989. At the same time, the proportion of unemployed with a secondary level education doubled, going from 14% to 29%. Observation of the unemployment rates by education level shows that: (i) the unemployment rate among those with a secondary level education is about the national average and lower than that among those with primary level education; (ii) the unemployment rate among those who have graduated from higher education is very low; (iii) the unemployment rate among people without education is lower than that of those with a primary or secondary level education. The latter result, which seems to be the opposite to what would be expected, might be attributable to the fact that the most deprived populations are prepared to accept the first job that comes along because they cannot afford not to work, but also to the fact that this category of unemployed has been specially targeted by the numerous employment programs introduced by the Government. 3.22. One cannot deduce from this observation of the unemployment rates or wage rates alone whether or not it is worthwhile increasing secondary school capacity. Indeed secondary education does not have as its first and sole objective to provide a job to students but to raise their level of knowledge in order to provide them with access to higher education or continuing education in their careers and to prepare them to play a social role in their family or in public life. In the second place, in Tunisia as in most countries (whether developed or developing), receiving general training at the secondary level does not necessarily give the person a comparative advantage in the job market over those who have primary level education or even no education: (i) these young people are competing in the same job market, i.e. that of unskilled manpower; illustrated by the fact that the entry wage is equivalent or close to the Guaranteed - 19 - Minimum Wage (SMIG) regardless of the duration of studies; (ii) the youth are for the most part those who have failed secondary school; (iii) the expectations of unemployed youth with a secondary education are higher and tends to make their insertion in enterprises more difficult; and (iv) the quality of vocational training is inadequate and its external efficiency low. 3.23. From the fragmented information available, we see that job placement at the secondary level can be successful: (i) when the vocational training leads to a certain qualification and is organized in conjunction with businesses to ensure that it reflects their needs; (ii) when, in addition to the training received, some specific occupational promotion programs are undertaken with the businesses to help students adapt to jobs. Very short training courses (a few weeks at the most) introduced under the auspices of the Fonds d'Insertion et d'Adaptation Professionnelle (FIAP) can thus lead to average job placement rates (put at between 63 % and 68%) that are higher than those for vocational training per se (put, overall, at between 55% and 60%). 3.24. Employment projections, even allowing for the degree of approximation where long-term training is concerned and the uncertainty surrounding them, can still serve to shape the general policy framework on training. he Tunisian labor market looks as though it should be able to absorb the following manpower per year over the next few years: (i) 4,700 managers and senior technicians; (ii) 8,600 technicians; (iii) 35,000 manual and office workers (specialized, skilled and highly skilled personnel). These calculations of the manpower needs of the economy are based on the following assumptions: (i) an average annual employment growth rate of 4% for the next few years (the Eighth Plan adopts 6%), which assumes, with an increase in productivity of between 2% and 4%, GDP increase rates of about 6% to 8%; (ii) an initial number of 1.3 million persons employed (90% of whom are in non-agricultural jobs); (iii) the distribution of jobs generated (52,000 per year) being such that it provides for a rapid increase in supervisory personnel (23% of the jobs created annually concentrated at the levels of manager, senior technician and technician), in keeping with the guidelines resulting from the study on the training of technicians; (iv) allowance for a 1 % labor turnover rate. Transition from school to work: which sectors should be given priority? 3.25. A comparison between the production of the training system and the requirements of the economy is given in diagram form in Volume II, Annex M, p. 7, and shows that: (i) per manual and office workers, the production of the training system far exceeds the needs of the economy (146% coverage), without even including the young people with no schooling who are able to join the work force directly, without training; (ii) at the technician level, the production of the training system falls short of the needs of the economy (71 % coverage). One should not, however, draw immediate conclusions from these gross figures as to training capacity: (i) the training for manual and office workers is highly heterogeneous in terms of entry level, duration and qualifications for which they prepare; (ii) because of the low internal efficiency of the training system at the technician level, the increase in production of trained youth need not necessarily be brought about by a proportional increase in training capacity. -20 - 3.26. An analysis of the very scanty data on job placement following training in the various vocational sectors and on average wages'o help to refine these initial conclusions. By comparing the cost to the Government of each sector (annual operating cost) with its interest in terms of aggregate remuneration of employees distributed in the economy (average annual wage multiplied by the number of years of employment), the most efficient sectors at the secondary level are the following: (i) short work experience training courses [formations courtes d'adaptation en entreprise] for those who drop out of primary education in the first few years and after seven to nine years of general education; (ii) apprenticeships after five to six years or seven to nine years of general education; (iii) public vocational training at the technician level taken after completing between 10 and 13 years of general education. 3.27. In contrast, it is not very economically effective: (i) not to receive any education or training at all; (ii) to drop out of general education and try to place oneself in a job independently without any complementary work experience program; (iii) to take between 10 and 13 years of general education and public or private vocational training at the manual worker, skilled office worker level and/or a placement program through the SIVP2 employment program; (iv) to take between seven and nine years of general education and public vocational training and to place oneself in a job independently. 3.28. Using this comparative approach it may be concluded: (i) that every effort must be made to limit the number of dropouts during general education and most particularly during basic education and after 10 years of general education; (ii) that priority should be given to apprenticeships (organized with complementary courses) and to work experience courses; (iii) that an investment in new vocational training capacity in the public sector is only really justified at the technical level; (iv) that training at the skilled manual and office worker level needs to be reorganized and the content of the training reformulated in order to improve its quality and external efficiency; (v) that the Technical Training Schools are not the most economically efficient answer to ensuring that those who drop out of basic education are placed in jobs; (vi) that the development of private vocational training available to students who drop out of school after between five and nine years of general education should be reinforced so that public and private training courses are equivalent in terms of economic feasibility. CHAPTER IV: EFFICIENCY OF THE GENERAL SECONDARY EDUCATION 4.01. This chapter attempts to address the following.issues:" (i) am resources rationally 10. Because of the lack of reliable data on job placement rates and on wages, many assumptions have had to be made within this study and the findings should be treated with caution. 11. The measurement of efficiency is extremely narrow here since it is limited to the allocation of resources among secondary school institutions and how these resources relate to the measurement of performance in the baccalaur6at [secondary school leaving certificate]. Hence, the reference is purely academic since the objectives of secondary education are much broader: (i) academic objectives, such as preparing pupils for post-secondary - 21 - divided among the various secondary schools, and are there possible economies of scale and an optimum size for an establishment; (ii) what are the operating costs and the potential economies of scale; 0Hi) to what extent are these resources qualitatively and quantitatively linked to academic performance measured by success in the baccaLaumdat [school-leaving certificate] examination, and (iv) how does the performance of the private and public sectors compare; and (v) what form does social selection take in the educational system. The study looks at how secondary education currently functions in Tunisia. It is based on a representative sample of 100 public secondary schools (of the 625 in the country) to which 20 private secondary schools have been added (the description of the sample is attached in Volume 11, Annex IV). A. The Breakdown of Resources between Secondary School Institutions Teachers 4.02. Teaching personnel is not evenly distributed among public secondary schools. The average pupils/teacher ration is 21.7. This teacher-pupil ratio varies, however, from a minimum of 11. 7 (only at the pilot secondary schools, due to the specific characteristics of those establishments) to a maximum of 26.6. About 15 % of the schools in the sample are overstaffed with teaching personnel (at least seven more than the average staff size expected) and 16% of schools are understaffed (at least six less than the average size) (See table 4. 1 in the Volume HI, Annex IV, p. 2). 4.03. The disparities noted are not fortuitous. Situations of overstaffing exist: (i) in the sample's two pilot high schools belonging to the group of overstaffed schools with a disparity between the actual and predicted number of teachers of 16 for the first one and 21 for the second; (ii) in the northeast and Sahel regions; and (iii) in schools where most of the pupils are in the mathematics department. The size of the schools, however, does not appear to be linked to the disparities observed (See Volume HI, Annex IV, p. 3). 4.04. In the Tunisian situation in which almost all schools have over 600 pupils (585 in a pilot high school) any economies of scale arising from the use of teachers are negligible. In fact, while the pupil/teacher ratio increases with the size of the school staff (with a commensurate decline in the unit cost), the gains noted also peak. The gains are considerable when the number of pupils increases from 200 to 400 (the gain in terms of unit cost is 18 %) but level off rapidly thereafter, with the result that an increase from 600 to 800 pupils makes for an average reduction in unit cost of only 4%. For instance, the average saving for a school with an enrollment of 1,200 pupils is not the same as it would be for two schools with enrollment of education or endowing them with the capacity for lifelong education; (ii) vocational objectives, such as preparing pupils for the labor market, guiding them towards productive careers and helping them to use the knowledge needed for employment; (iii) personal objectives, by giving pupils a taste for learning, developing their physical and intellectual capacities, and encouraging them to explore their own areas of interest; (iv) social objectives, by preparing pupils for their role in society and for family life, and for becoming citizens and taking part in the nation's public life, and inculcating in them attitudes based on ethics and moral principles. - 22 - 600 pupils. There would be an average saving of only four teachers in the case of a school with 1,200 pupils (See Volume II, Annex IV, p. 4 and 5). Teacher Qualifications 4.05. In qualitative terms, there are also considerable disparities in teacher qualifications among schools (measured by administrative level).12 In public schools offering both levels of secondary education, the average proportion of category A teachers is 9%, with the difference between one school and another ranging considerably from a minimum of 0% to a maximum of 33%. For category B teachers, the average is 65% (ranging from 44% to 90%), and for category C teachers 26% (ranging from 2% to 56%). 4.06. Schools that are overstaffed are also "qualitatively" better equipped insofar as they receive a higher proportion of category A teachers. Moreover, the proportion of category A teachers is higher on average in the larger schools and schools with science departments. Conversely, a higher proportion of teachers with the lowest administrative qualification are found in the schools with the highest teacher-pupil ratios and generally speaking in schools with a smaller proportion of students enrolled in science subjects (Volume II, Annex IV, p. 6). Non-Teaching Staff 4.07. Significant differences exist as well between one school and another with respect to the categories of non-teaching staff (administrative and support). Each situation is unique, however, depending on the category of staff and the nature of the system applied in the various schools (day schools, boarding schools and semi-boarding schools). For instance, approximately 15 % of day schools are understaffed with administrative staff and 10% with support staff and 17% of these schools are overstaffed with administrative staff and 11 % with support staff. With respect to administrative staff, the most understaffed school has five fewer than the expected number, while the most overstaffed has 4.7 more. In the support staff category, the most understaffed school has less than 7.6 persons fewer than what would be expected compared with the average, while the most overstaffed has 15 more. Major disparities in non-teaching staff exist between boarding schools and schools with semi-boarders whereas the proportion of schools that are understaffed and overstaffed is much the same (See Volume II, Annex IV, p. 7, 8, 9 and 10). 4.08. An analysis of non-teaching staff shows that any economies of scale would be pointless at the support staff level and would make sense only at schools for boarders and semi- boarders. It would be most economical at schools with an enrollment of approximately 400 to 500 boarders and semi-boarders. 12. Category A comprises the most senior teachers (agrs [ candidates successful at a competitive examination for senior teaching posts] and class teachers); categorz B comprises teachers with intermediate qualifications (secondary-school teachers and all categories of teachers holding a master's degree); while category C includes teachers with the lowest administrative qualifications (lower-level- secondary school teachers and teachers without a master's degree). - 23 - B. Unit Operating Costs in Public and Private Schools 4.09. For all public schools in the sample, personnel expenditure accounts for an average of 88.5% of the overall operating budget, the bulk going on teaching staff (75.4% of the total budget, 85.1 % of the staff budget). Other operating expenses representing 11.5% of the total budget include, in addition to educational costs, all expenditure connected with the life of the establishment (in particular, food and lodging expenses in the case of boarding and semi-boarding schools). In private schools, the total staff budget accounts for 73% of the total operating budget, with a much smaller proportion going on teaching-staff expenditure (51 % of the total budget, and 69.8% of personnel expenditure) than in the public schools (See Volume II, Annex IV, p. 11). 4.10. In all public establishments, the average unit operating cost is 396 dinars compared with 211 dinars in private establishments, i.e. only 53% of the cost of public schools. Caution should be exercised, however, in any direct comparison between the cost structure of private and public schools: (i) the comparison looks at global averages without distinction of the system (boarding or day schools), which has a bearing on operating costs in the public sector; (ii) the distinction between administrative and teaching staff is less clearly defined in the private sector than in the public sector; and (iii) many teachers in the private sector also teach in the public sector, where they are paid at overtime rates. 4.11. In all public schools, unit costs vary considerably from a minimum of 299.9 dinars to a maximum of 948.6 dinars. It is much higher in those schools that accept both boarders and semi-boarders (436.7 dinars) than in day schools (368.9 dinars). This difference is in part attributable to the additional expense for non-teaching staff and other expenditure (including board and food) in the case of boarding schools. Yet, there are sharp differences in cost within each category since staffing varies from one establishment to another. For instance, in day schools, total unit costs range from 330.7 dinars to 464 dinars. In the case of boarding schools, the figure varies considerably more, from a minimum of 349.7 dinars to a maximum of 948.6 dinars. The two pilot schools (both of which are among the groups of establishments with boarders) are among the most expensive, with a unit cost of 561.3 dinars for the Lyc6e Bourguiba and 948.6 dinars for the Ariana. 4.12. Significant disparities in unit cost exist for schools of comparable size. For instance, the unit costs range from 300 to 450 dinars for schools with 1,000 pupils, although schools over a broad range can have a similar level of unit cost (350 dinars for establishments with 700 to 2,500 pupils). The relationship between unit cost and number of pupils is a negative one in the various types of public schools. This ratio is particularly weak, however, in day schools, underscoring the fact that little potential for economies of scale exists as the system is currently organized (the unit cost is reduced by only 10% for a pupil enrolled in an establishment with 400 pupils and one enrolled in an establishment of 2,200 pupils). In other words, boarding schools as a structure function more or less on a basis of financiug that is entirely proportionate to the number of pupils and, accordingly, do not provide great opportunities for economies of scale. - 24 - C. Comparative Analysis of Public Schools' Educational Performance Disparities between Resources and Educational Performance 4.13. The disparities in the staffing levels in Tunisian secondary schools, particularly teaching staff, and the resultant differences in per capita pupil expenditure raise a number of questions about school performance. It is a widely held view, although called into question by a number of studies, that the quality of schools is directly linked to the size of the teaching staff, their qualifications and total pupil spending. We propose, then, to analyze the extent to which the quality of learning among secondary-school pupils may be associated with very different learning conditions and to compare the performance of public schools with those of private establishments 4.14. However, confronted to the traditional definition of the quality of schools in terms of the average qualification of their staff, and the level of pupil expenditure, the planner has difficulty to address questions such as differences in staffing between one institution and another. He may wish to reduce such disparities for equity' sake, in an effort to provide educational conditions that are comparable overall throughout the country for all young people attending secondary schools. Nevertheless, it is more difficult for him to establish the most effective distribution. The best equipped schools are likely to appear as the ideal to which the others must aspire, when there is no justification (from the point of view of efficiency) for a more equitable redistribution of available resources. That is why it is important to collect information on the factors that affect the quality of learning. For instance, it suffices to observe that "overstaffing" has no significant influence on the quality of learning for arguments about efficiency and equity to converge and recognize that efforts must be deployed to obtain a better distribution of available resources among the establishments. The Baccalaurdat Examination as a Measure of Efficiency 4.15. Success in the baccalauria provides us with an external instrument for measuring the success of the various schools, which, in certain conditions, gives us a good idea of the efficiency of training in secondary education. The baccalauriat is a national examination which requires that all candidates take the same test in similar conditions and on the same date. The Tunisian authorities would like to maintain the quality of the Tunisian baccalaurdat at the highest international level so as to enable Tunisian students to continue their studies abroad. A brief comparison of the Tunisian baccalauriat with its French counterpart has found that both the level of knowledge required and the difficulty of the exams in both systems are quite comparable. The Tunisian baccalaurit is organized into two sessions, each with a procedure whereby students whose mark in the first session is not far off the average may be given a second chance. For a more objective measurement, then, only the result in the first session is used. 4.16. The pupils' success at the baccalauriat does not depend solely on the educational conditions in the schools they attend. It can also depend on the choice of streams available, previous academic performance, or socio-economic background. In this performance model, the -25- pupil's results, which are used to measure the efficiency of teaching, are associated with: (i) the nature of the school and its available resources (relative level of over- or understaffing, quality of teachers gauged by the relative proportion of teachers in different areas, class size, relative importance of science and mathematics departments, boarding, pilot lyc6es, public or private schools); and (ii) the characteristics of the pupils (proportion of pupils from affluent families, proportion of pupils that are children of teachers, proportion of girls, proportion of pupils in different branches of study, average total years repeated, average result in all the different tests in the first session of the baccalauriat). A second model also makes it possible to compare the relative performance of public and private schools, taking account of the differences in the organization and intake of pupils in both groups of schools. Educational Performance of the Public Schools 4.17. The table below presents five models (Ml to M5) indicating the weight of 12 different factors (listed in the table) that can be associated with the degree of average success in the first session of the baccalaurdi in the different public schools in the sample. -26- Table 4.11: Models Explaining the Levels of Success in the First session of the Baccalaurdat (Public Schools) mil M2 M3 M4 M5 Coeff Sign Coeff Sign Coeff Sign Coeff Sign Coeff Sign Constant 7.99 11.82 8.87 8.79 10.67 Pupils' Characteristics 2.89 ** -0.17 nas - - 0.96 . % privileged 10.06 *** 4.71 *** - - 5.47 *** . % child of teach. -0.19 as -0.12 as - -0.08 ns % girls - 4.64 *** - - - 2.38 *** . % repeaters School Characteristics - 3.19 *** 3.49 *** 1.72 .% prof " - - -0.68 as 0.73 ns -0.56 as % prof "C" - -0.006 as -0.007 ns -0.01 as pup/class - 3.46 1.14 as 0.007 as % dotation relative - - - * 4.02 * 2.39 * Pilot school - - 0.07 ns 0.25 ** Boardmg - - 2.78 as - 2.72 as % maths. - - 0.85 as -1.72 ns % sciences 0.38 0.64 0.43 0.64 0.73 - 27 - 4.18. If only the socio-demographic background of the pupils in the different schools is taken into account (Ml model), it is found that an establishment's average success rate increases with the proportion of children from privileged families and children whose parents are teachers. The proportion of girls, however, does not appear to be closely related to a school's success. The characteristics of schools not being considered, it is difficult at this stage to see to what extent the effect observed is attributable in itself to social background and not to the particular establishment attended. 4.19. Academic capabilities (measured by the proportion of pupils reaching the baccalaur6at with at least one repetition during their attendance) and the pupils' socio- demographic characteristics (model M2) go a long way towards explaining the variation in the different establishments' levels of success at the baccalaur6at (R2 of 64%). Furthermore, with particular "academic capabilities," the social tone of the establishments is no longer strongly linked to success, which means that the advantage enjoyed by children from well-off families lies mainly in the fact that on average they have gone through school without repeating, except for the proportion of teachers' children who certainly enjoy advantages associated with success other than their belonging to an economically favored social group. 4.20. Taking into account only the variables related to the educational organization of the establishments without reference to the pupils' social characteristics (model M3) shows that success in the baccalaur6at increases in proportion to the number of category "A" teachers; although, one also notes that a greater proportion of category "C" teachers are not associated with a lesser degree of success. It would appear then that success in the baccalaur6at increases with the proportion of "surplus" teachers. 4.21. The M4 model shows that success is considerably greater in the pilot schools than in the other establishments, although the availability of boarding and the branches of study offered are not associated to any important degree with a school's academic performance. There is evidence, however, that, at this level, the positive influence of the (over- or under-) staffing of teachers observed in the M3 model ceases to be significant, suggesting that this is due essentially to the presence of the pilot schools which, as seen earlier, are extremely overstaffed. By and large, all the characteristics linked to the establishments account for 64% of the variance between establishments when it comes to success in the baccalaur6at. 4.22. The pupil characteristics and school educational organization together explain 73% of the variation in the baccalaurdat. Then, a more than negligible proportion of the effect of the model M4 is attributable to the fact that establishments with the most favorable teaching conditions are the ones that take pupils showing the greatest promise of success (students who have been,through school without repetition, children from privileged families, and children of teachers). The MS model shows that (i) in specific enrollment conditions (teacher qualification, relative levels of teacher staffing, class size, type of establishment and branches of study proposed), a school has a much higher success level when there is a high proportion of children from to-do backgrounds or of children whose parents are teachers, conversely, the greater the - 28 - proportion of children who have spent longer than the normal time in school, the lower the baccalaur6at success rate; and (ii) given the chaiacieristics of pupils, the influence of the schools' educational and administrative organization is significantly reduced. (The advantage linked to the presence of a higher proportion of category "A" pupils is cut by half even if this effect is still significant. The same is true of the positive effect associated with pilot schools.) 4.23. Thus, the advantage of relative overstaffing, which became insignificant when pilot schools are considered, disappears altogether as soon as the pupils' characteristics are taken into account. This last result is quite important since it informs us that such overstaffing, which is not legitimate in terms of equity, is no more so in terms of efficiency. This result also shows us that understaffed schools are not necessarily disadvantaged in operational terms. In other words, the present numbers of teaching staff (without even mentioning here the overstiffing that should doubtless be corrected) are rather generous compared with what might be the result of allocation based solely on the criterion of educational efficiency. 4.24. Lastly, the presence of a boarding facilities are here positively linked to the level of success, while this variable was not significant in the M4 model. This result could be interpreted to mean that this structure, which allows pupils from poorer backgrounds to attend school and improve their learning process. D. Comparison of Educational Performance of Public and Private Schools 4.25. Public and private schools differ considerably in the characteristics of their enrollment and their organization. Hence, a comparison of educational performance is by no means negligible (Table 4.12). The public schools in the sample enroll a larger proportion of girls than the private schools (52.8% compared with 26.7%), more children of teachers (6.3% compared with 2.7%) and a slightly higher proportion of children from privileged backgrounds (8.7% against 6.0%). Private education is clearly favored by pupils facing difficulties considering that virtually all pupils attending these schools have repeated at least once during their schooling as against only 70% of pupils in public schools. The organization of schools in the two sectors is rather different: (i) there is on average 9% of category "A" teachers in the public schools, whereas there are none in the private schools; and (ii) private establishments have more arts than science departments (50.3% of pupils in private schools are in arts compared with 27.8% in public schools). - 29 - Table 4.12: MIain Characteristics of the Public and Private Schools Public Private Pupil characteristics - % privileged 8.7 6.0 - % child. teach. 6.3 2.7 - % girls 52.8 26.7 - % repeaters 70.3 98.8 Teaching Staff - % category " 8.8 0 - % category *B" 65.0 74.5 - % category "C" 26.2 25.5 Educ. organization - % arts pupils 27.8 50.3 - % math. pupils 4.3 0.3 - % science pupils 12.8 5.0 - % math/sc. pupils 55.1 44.4 - no. pupils/top class 30.5 27.4 Unit cost - teacher 299.0 105.4 - total 396.2 211.3 Average Result lst bac. session 8.8 6.8 4.26. Private schools have on average a much lower baccalaur6at exam (2 points difference) than public schools although this lower performance is attributable mainly to the types of pupils in public schools."3 Consideration of their social origin reduces the disparity to 1.61 while inclusion of academic characteristics ("repeaters) brings it down to 0.49. In other words, of the two differential points in the educational performance of the two types of establishment, three-quarters are attributable to the fact that private establishments accept more pupils that are unlikely to succeed than do the public schools. Considering that private schools offer fewer science branches than public schools further widens the gap between private and public schools to 0.73 (Table 4.13). 4.27 All in all, although their performance is weaker, private schools appear to be comparable with schools in the public system in terms of efficiency given their cost and the characteristics of their pupils. The disparities are significant with respect to pupil expenditure in the two types of schools, while the differences in performance are negligible if the differences 13. The available data does not provide, in the comparison between private and public schools, all the variables considered earlier for the latter establishments. In particular, since private schools were excluded from the analysis of staff numbers, the influence of over- and under-staffing is not considered. Likewise, we cannot study here the number of category *A" teachers, there being none in the private schools, where the highest level of qualification is category *B." - 30 - in pupil background and educational structure are taken into account. This can be confirmed by directly taking the unit cost as a variable that explains the level of success at the baccalaurdat. One observes that with comparable operating unit costs and pupil background educational performance of the private school does not differ significantly from the one of public school. In itself, this finding is not surprising when we knew that many teachers in the public school system also teach overtime in private schools and they are paid at a higher rate where the programs are the same. E. The Social Selectivity of General Education in Tunisia 4.28. As in most countries, the Tunisian education system is socially selective. Table 16 shows for instance that children in category I (workmen and related), who constitute around two thirds of the pupils at entry into primary education, represent 57% of those admitted into the first year of general secondary education and 46% of candidates of the baccalaur6at (44% of bac. graduates). At the same time, a comparison of entrants into primary education and baccalaur6at graduates shows that children in the middle (higher) categories see their representation increase from 26% (8%) to 44% (12 %).14 14. No precise data is now available on the survival of pupils from different social strata within the Tunisian education system. However, the data assembled on the functioning of secondary schools reveal the social structure of the pupil intake (based on the father's profession) in 84 of the 100 public schools studied, for the year 1992 in the first year of general secondary education and in the school-leaving class. This last statistic enables us to estimate the social structure of the candidates in the baccalaur6at and those who are awarded the diploma. For lack of other information, it may be assumed that the available data on the social origin of pupils in the first year of general secondary education in 1992 supplies approximate information on the social structure of the pupils in the same class six years earlier. Furthermore, taking the structure of the active population as a reference for a breakdown of the social origin of pupils starting out in primary education, one obtains an approximate picture of the social spectrum represented by pupils from the different social milieux in the several major fields of study in the general education system. - 31 - Table 4.13: Social Structure"s of the Pupils from Entry into Primary School to Award of the Baccalaur6at (Public Sector: General Education) Entry Primary Admitted first year Candidates Admitted General Sec. General General Bac. Bac. Workmen and Assimilated 66.4 56.9 46.5 43.9 Middle execs. and related 7.9 8.9 9.0 12.0 Senior Execs. 25.7 34.2 44.5 44.1 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 4.29. Approximately one half of the selection process in the Tunisian education system occurs at the primary school level (years one to six) while the other half takes place in the second cycle of basic education and in secondary school. Out of 100 children that started primary education, some 62 reached the last year of the cycle and 32 are admitted into secondary education. Among the latter, 23 were oriented towards general education and 9 towards vocational education. Out of the 23 pupils who access general secondary education, 12 reached the final grade of the cycle (year 7) and 5 get the baccalaurdat.16 In primary education, the survival rate of pupils is therefore 62% when measured on the basis of access to the last grade of the cycle, and 32% if restricted to children admitted to secondary education, dropping to 23 % for children entering general secondary education. The survival rate of pupils in general secondary education is 52% (12/23) when measured by access to the last grade, but drops to 21.7% (5/23) if success at the baccalauriat is taken into account (this last measurement is less realistic because it does not consider the possibility of obtaining this diploma after several attempts). 4.30. The link between these survival rates and the social structure of the pupils shows that pupil survival up to the award of the baccalauriat varies greatly from one social group to another (Table 4.14 below). The survival rate of children from the most disadvantaged 15. The category "Support and related staff" includes the categories "Unskilled labor," "Unemployed skilled labor" and "Father deceased"; the average category comprises those of "Employees," "Small-scale craftsmen and merchants," "Middle executives" and "Teachers." The category "Senior executives and related stafM includes the categories "Liberal professions," "Senior executives" and "Teachers." 16. Study on internal performance of the Tunisian education system MES/DPSI: follow up on cohorts of students entering school in 1972/73. - 32 - backgrounds at all levels is lower than that of the other groups. Accordingly, out of 66 pupils in the "workmen and related" category that entered primary education, 13 entered the first year of general secondary education (i.e. a survival rate in this first sequence of studies of 20% against an average of 23%; 5.6 reached the final year of general secondary education (i.e. a survival rate in this type of education of 43% against 52% for all pupils and a rate of 8.4% over the two whole cycle against an average of 12%) and only 3% obtained the general baccalaurdat, against 9% and 8% respectively of the children in the average and higher income categories. Table 4.14: Estimated Survival Rate of Pupils' from Different Social Categories Workmen and Middle Sen. related execs. staff Total related related Nos. first year primary 66.4 25.7 7.9 100 Nos. end primary nd ad nd 62 Nos. admitted nd nd nd 32 Nos. 1 AS general 13.1 7.9 2.0 23 Survival rate 1 AS 19.7 30.7 25.3 23.0 general Nos. 7 AS general 5.6 5.3 1.1 12 Nos. 'bac" holders 2.2 2.2 0.6 5 Survival rate gen. sec. 42.7 67.1 55.0 52.2 Primary/second survival rate 29.2 41.5 54.5 41.9 Survival rate "bac" 16.8 27.8 30.0 21.7 Primary/second survival rate 8.4 10.6 13.9 12.0 Survival rate prim-bac 3.3 8.6 7.6 5.0 4.31. Children from disadvantaged backgrounds predominate in the non science branches; children in the "support and related" category account for 69% of those enrolled in the arts branch of the school-leaving class, and only 8% of those in the "mathematics" branch (the most prestigious). Only 43% of children in the "senior executives and related" category enroll in the "Arts" branch, and 16% of the children in this same category take the "mathematics" baccalaurgat. 17. The table is based on a follow up on a cohort of students entering school in 1972/73; the survival rate and passing rate have improved markedly since then, particularly in basic education. - 33 - Table 4.15: Breakdown of Children in the Last Year of Secondary Education from Different Social Backgrounds by Branch of Study Mathematics Science Arts Total Workmen and related 7.5 23.9 68.6 100.0 Middle execs. and related 8.1 27.4 64.5 100.0 Senior execs. and related 14.9 42.2 42.9 100.0 Total 8.6 27.9 63.5 100.0 4.32. Furthermore, within each branch of science, the success rate of the children in the first category (workers and related) is considerably lower than that of children in the other categories. For instance, the greatest disparity is found in the mathematics branch, in which a little over 56% of the children in the first category obtain the diploma as opposed to 83 % of the children of senior executives (Table 4.16). Table 4.16: Success Rate in the Different Streams of the Baccalauriat by Pupil Social Background Mathematics Science Arts Total Workmen and related 56.2 46.3 34.9 39.3 Middle execs. and related 67.9 49.2 34.6 41.5 Senior execs. and related 82.5 58.8 38.2 54.5 Total 66.7 50.0 35.0 41.9 4.33. The Tunisian education system is therefore highly selective if one considers that on average 5 % of children entering primary education obtain the baccalauriat in a public school. This judgment is evidently biased and the number will have to be revised upwards since it fails to take into account (i) orientation towards technical and vocational branches; and (ii) improvements over the last five years in the passing and survival rates, particularly in basic education. This selection, which makes it possible to regulate enrollment and so avoid excessive pressure on higher education, nevertheless has some major drawbacks: (i) half of it occurs in primary education, which means before the end of compulsory education and the pupils' - 34 - acquisition of basic knowledge; (ii) it is the result of the low level of internal efficiency and increase in training costs (despite the improvement of grades 6 and 9); and (iii) through social disparities in academic success and social disparities in orientation (general education/vocational and technical training), before introduction of the reform, the chances of passing the baccalauriat for children from the least favored social environments was less than half those of children from other social groups. 4.34. At a time when the educational reform is being set in place, the question of the system's social selectivity deserves special attention from the educational authorities. Tunisian society has a tradition of meritocracy in which academic success is a determining factor of the individual's economic and social status. Accordingly, since independence, the school system has played an important role in social mobility and the establishment of a large middle class which contributes to a cohesive Tunisian society. Socio-economic and family environment are determinant in success at school and school policy (including financial assistance for school books) are insufficient to correct existing inequities. If the aim is to promote greater equality of opportunity to preserve this mobility, then it is worth analyzing: (i) whether nationwide syllabuses, educational methods, and examination and guidance procedures are really socially unbiased when put into effect; (ii) the factors in the school environment that affect academic success; and (iii) the measures in the school environment and in school organization that can help reduce social discrimination in academic success. 4.35. Such an analysis calls for specific data such as education profiles that provide a more precise reference to the study of the pupils' academic careers and a more homogeneous nomenclature for the active populations than the one used here and, more desegregated so that the phenomenon may be examined on a regional basis. For example, the limited analysis based on available data reveals important differences in the careers of pupils from the different social groups according to region. The drop out rate among children from the "workers and related" category between the first year of secondary education and access to the school-leaving class for the 84 public establishments studied varies from -7% in the Greater Tunis area to -30% in the south (-14% in the Sahel, -16% in the northeast, and -18% in the northwest/center-west). These findings are extremely important for school mapping. CHAPTER V: SCENARIOS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SECONDARY EDUCATION The Scenario Presented by the MES: Hypotheses Selected 5.01. The development of secondary education depends on demographic growth and the management of enrollment in basic education. As far as demography is concerned, the drop in the birth rate will translate into a reduction in the number of children entering basic education starting in the 1993/94 school year, which would most likely drop from 220,000 to 202,000 in 1997/98. Accordingly, for the period up to the year 2002, the end of the ninth plan, the MES provides in its A3 scenario for a stabilization of enrollment numbers, while aiming to have all 6 - 35 - year old children entering the first year of basic education. Concerning enrollment management, the MES foresees: (i) further improvement of internal efficiency and further reduction of dropouts in the junior cycle of basic education (notably in the first four years; and an improved transition rate from 5th to 6th year -- increases from 67% to 75% and the dropout rate declines from 9% to 7%); (ii) a transition rate from the junior to senior cycle of basic education (grade 6 to 7) increasing from 57% in 1992/93 to about 70% in 1997/98 and to stabilize at that percentage at the end of the ninth plan; (iii) stabilization of internal efficiency at its current level in the senior cycle of basic education; and (iv) a stabilization of 55 % transition rate from basic to secondary education (grade 9 to 10) IN 1997/98. These hypotheses are summarized in Tables 5.1 and 5.2 in Annex 5. Evolution of Enrollment 5.02. This strategy gives priority to basic education. However, upper-basic and secondary education enrollments grow at an average annual rate of 6% (from 1991/92 to 2001/02). Increased internal efficiency in lower-basic and improved transition from grade 6 to 7 will result in significantly higher secondary education enrollments. Enrollment in the upper cycle of basic education at the start of the 8th Plan will increase from 308,000 pupils to 473,000 in 1996/97 and to 538,000 in 2001/02. Secondary-school numbers will increase from 211,000 to 294,000 then to 362,000 (respectively 122,000 to 175,000 then to 210,000 in the common 1st and 2nd year secondary education and 87,300 to 118,000 and then to 180,000 in the last two specialization years of secondary education). Table 5.3 in Annex V. 5.03. In accordance with the objectives of the reform, this scenario envisages a substantial modification in the distribution of numbers among the various streams leading to the baccalauria. At the end of the second year of secondary education, 20% of pupils would be steered toward the mathematics stream, 20% toward the experimental sciences, 12% toward economics and management, 30% toward arts and human sciences, and 18% toward math and technical studies. This shift, which favors the scientific branches and the newly-created economics branch at the expense of the arts is quite voluntaristic, since in 1991/92 mathematics accounted for 9%, technical studies for 9% and arts for 60% (Table 5.4 at Annex). Teaching-Staff Needs 5.04. Growth in pupil enrollment, teaching hours and number of subjects, teaching schedules and the subjects brought about by the reform of the curriculum calls for more teachers to be recruited. Concerning the upper-basic education cycle (grades 6-9), these needs are estimated at 7,640 additional teachers (excluding gymnastics instructors) over the 1994/94 to 2001/02 period. The MES estimates that after 1999/2000 these staff numbers will stabilize as a result of stabilization of pupil enrollments. For secondry education, the MES estimates that about 7,150 new teachers will be needed during the 1994/95 to 2001/02 period. In total the MES plans to recruit about 15,000 new teachers to respond to the growth of enrollments (excluding the necessary replacements due to natural attrition). - 36 - Evolution of the Operating Budget 5.05. For operating budget projections the selected hypothesis is one in which unit costs will progress by 4% per year (on the basis of being presently TD220 for the lower-basic, TD403 in the upper-basic education cycle, and TD638 in the secondary education cycle). As staff spending accounts for 93% of school budgets, the progression of unit costs depends essentially on staff salary increases envisaged for the public service and the teachers' capacity for wage claims. This hypothesis can be considered realistic since all forecasts are based on a 6% annual progression of GNP during the 9th Plan. Although economies of scale are limited, better spatial distribution of teachers and improved internal efficiency of the system would give the MES additional budget flexibility to increase the number of teachers or improve the quality of teaching aids.'" 5.06. In these conditions, and in the hypothesis where unit costs progress at an average annual rate of 4%, the operating budget devoted to the junior cycle of basic education would progress over the period from 1992 to 2001 at an annual rate of 4.2% (from TD311 million to TD469 million), the senior cycle of basic education at an annual growth rate of 10% (from TD124 million to TD321 million), and secondary education at an annual growth rate of 9.8% (fom TD134 million to TD341 million). Discussion of the Scenario Proposed by the MES Financial Viability 5.07. The scenario proposed by the MES seems, a priori, to be affordable for Tunisia, a condition that the growth of the investment budget of the MES (for basic and secondary education) does not exceed 4% and that growth of the higher education budget is limited to 7%. Under these conditions, the total budget of the MES will grow by an annual average of 6.5 % over the 1992-2002 period (compared to a growth rate of 6% annually for GNP and 6% for the Government's total national budget). To verify this, we have estimated the evolution of the MES budget as a share of GNP and as a percentage of the national budget at constant 1992 prices (estimates by the Ministry of Plan and Regional Development). The table below shows that this scenario would result in slight increase of the share of GNP allocated to education and to the share of the MES budget in the National Budget. 18. At the preparatory stage of this study a second scenario was considered with a hypothesis of a 6% increase in unit costs. This scenario has not been presented in this final report since in the light of past experience, it is highly improbable that the Tunisian authorities increase public-service salaries commensurately with the increase in the national product. Also, given the economic uncertainties, it was considered less risky to use a figure considerably lower than the forecasts of the plan, affording greater room for budgetary maneuver. Subsequent analysis should also confirm that with a 6% increase in unit costs, the MES scenario would exceed the national budget's financial capacities. - 37 - Table 5.8: Evolution 1992-2001 of the share of the Education Budget (MES) in GNP and the National Budget (3% Scenario) Scenario A3 1992/92 1996197 2001/02 MES Budget (4%) 814 1,177 1,576 National Budget 3,677 4,921 6,586 GNP 13,177 17,634 23,600 MES/NB 4% 22.1% 23.9% 23.9% (operating) MES/GNP 4% 6.2% 6.7% 6.7% (operating) I_I 5.08. This scenario requires that the growth of the higher education budget not exceed an average of 7% per annum over the period. This condition might be difficult to fulfill: higher- education enrollment is projected to increase at an annual rate of 7.2% during the 8th Plan, and the higher education budget at a rate of 7.5%. Thus, in order to maintain the level of resources per student and adequate quality of higher education the MES would need to limit either the growth of its operating costs or the growth of secondary education and higher education at the same time, implement cost-recovery measures and/or promote private higher education. Educational Feasibility 5.09. The A3 scenario of the MES relies on two strong and inter-linked hypotheses: (i) teacher availability; (ii) the capacity to provide guidance for pupils and redistribute the numbers among the different types of baccalauriat. The comparison of teacher needs by discipline and students graduating from higher education for the period from 1992 to 2002 shows that the number of master's degree-holders produced (about 29,200) exceeds the overall teacher needs (about 15,000). It is therefore possible for Tunisia by and large to cope with these needs. However, it is evident from a more detailed examination of these needs that it will be difficult to recruit qualified teachers for certain subjects during the next two or three academic years: (i) breakdown by discipline shows that there would be a substantial shortage of teachers in French (of about 1,200), and to a lesser extent in history and geography (about 800); (ii) that these secondary-teacher needs will run into competition . with the already considerable requirements of higher education (2,000 staff need to be recruited at this level during the 8th Plan, and at least as many again during the 9th Plan); (iii) that these needs must soon be met (during the current 8th Plan period), while the Institutes of Education Sciences have just been created in the universities; (iv) that depending on the subjects, and particularly in science (it is, however, estimated that 90% of those with master's degrees chose to become teachers) the private sector competes with the public sector by offering higher salaries (Table 5.9 in Annex). - 38 - 5.10. The MES can also meet teacher needs by recruiting Tunisian students studying abroad. The MES has accordingly established three university missions in France, Canada and Germany, one of whose functions is to inform foreign-trained students about teaching careers in Tunisia. For instance, in the current academic year (1992/93) there are 6,241 Tunisians studying in French universities (1,866 in science and 1,764 in arts). Of these students 2,599 already have a master's degree and are engaged in doctoral studies. 5.11. This strictly quantitative problem is coupled to the more qualitative one of retraining existing teachers to enable them to teach the new syllabuses. Teacher-training capacity, whether at the initial or continuing level, is currently insufficient to meet these needs. This is why the MES is now making a strenuous effort to: (i) create these educational capabilities, particularly in the universities; and (ii) put a retraining program in place for all existing secondary-school teachers. This policy should be vigorously pursued during the Eighth Plan to keep up with the pace of enrollment growth and help establish new types of baccalaurda, including in technical subjects. 5.12. Moreover, implementation of this scenario calls for a change in methods of student information and guidance so as to alter the distribution of pupils among the various streams of the baccalauriat. The MES will recruit school and university information and guidance counsellors who will attend a specialized two-year training course after receiving their master's degree. At the end of the process there should be one counsellor per school. The initial results of the orientation program carried out in July 1993 are encouraging, with only 30% of students directed towards arts streams (20% towards mathematics, 22% towards the experimental sciences, 15% towards economics and management and 13% towards technical subjects). Moreover, 80% were able to select their first choice. Although girls tended on the whole towards the arts (65% in this discipline are girls), some change was noted as 16% chose technical subjects (as opposed to 3% in the past) and 34% mathematics. Choice of Educational Development 5.13. The scenario A3 put forward by the MES has the following characteristics: (i) a further reduction of the dropout rate in the lower-basic education cycle, which will result in a participation ratio of over 90% for the 6-12 year age group by the year 2001/02; (ii) improving the transition rate from grade 6 to 7 from 57% (in 1992/93) to 70% by 1997/98; (iii) stabilization of the repetition and dropout rates in the upper-basic cycle; (iv) limiting the transition rate of grade 9 completers into secondary education (grade 10) progressively from 70% at present to 55% by 1997/98; and (v) adjustment of the selection coefficients at the end of grade 11 for each of the five secondary specializations (options) benefiting the sciences and technology options. This will allow Tunisia to establish the basic education cycle for the 6-16 year age group. This process will not be completed by the year 2001/02, but will have made significant progress. Limiting access to secondary education allows the Government to maintain its priority on the development of basic education. - 39 - 5.14. The difficulty of progressing with the implementation of basic education is doubtles! linked to the prevailing view of an education system that must be selective and therefore elitis if its quality is to be preserved. In regulating enrollment in this way, the MES is deferring tc most teachers who do not yet seem ready for a change that would take nearly all children to tht end of basic education. This would require them to change their teaching methods in order tc open the school up to more pupils, thereby increasing social and cultural heterogeneity. I addition, this idea conforms to the law of July 1991, which provides compulsory schooling onl3 from six to 16 years of age for those "who are capable of continuing their studies in accordance with the regulations in force," which means complying with the type of selection under the single- curriculum model. Moreover, it seems easier to regulate enrollment by means of continuou; assessment between the sixth and seventh years, which involve a change of school than at the starl of secondary education. Lastly, it would be advisable to check whether geographical factors dc not still affect school attendance. The study has not been able to verify, for example, whethei a part of the population (essentially rural) was unable to attend school because of geographical distance. 5.15. The importance of selection at the basic education level raises several questions: (i) at what level should the selection take place if the quality desired by the MES is to be maintained; (ii) is school failure at basic education level founded only on the pupils' abilities or are there other factors that the school does not address; and (iii) is that selection justified in socio- economic terms and is it in keeping with the objectives of the Plan? The first question will remain open until a rigorous evaluation of learning achievements is made (this was broached by the MES at the level of year four of basic education, and in 1995 is scheduled for the end of year six). However, unless it considers that 37% of its 6-12 year age group is unable to complete the first 6 years of basic education, the education system should question its own effectiveness before putting the blame of academic failure on pupils. The second question may be answered in the affirmative: there is no doubt that the school, as it is currently organized, fails up to now to correct all the factors of academic failure linked to family environment and the neediest families' economic situation. However, given the magnitude of the problem and the fact that for the first time the MES has resources to implement more qualitative measures (primary-education enrollment will drop in the future), it would be wise to identify these factors with a view to framing supplementary policies or establishing differentiated remedial courses. The easy response to the third question is that it is wasteful to pursue this type of selection which runs counter to the nation's interests. In fact, to reject approximately 100,000 young people every year at the basic-education level perpetuates illiteracy and exclusion. Needless to say, alternative studies, either in Technical Schools or the various branches of vocational training that admit some 40% of dropouts are much more costly than general education without really offering bright employment prospects (Chapter M shows that there is no need to increase capacities at this level of qualification). -40- Generalization of Basic Education and Development of Secondary Education: Seeking Balance 5.16. Two alternative scenarios have been studied in liaison with the MES: (i) the first (scenario Al) recommends continued efforts to open basic education to as many students as possible by providing a more gradual but deliberate increase in the transition rate from sixth to seventh grade, moving to 73 % by the end of the Ninth Plan, while keeping the other MES hypotheses, i.e. a 70% transition rate for entry to secondary education; (ii) the second alternative scenario (scenario A2) adopts the same hypotheses as scenario Al, while also limiting the growth of secondary education by adopting a 60% transition rate for entry in secondary education (see Table 5.10 at Annex). Since these alternatives simply study the financial viability of pursuing the implementation of basic education, they maintain the same assumptions concerning performance during the first six years of primary education. The question of primary education for all, and therefore of eliminating dropping-out at that level, still needs to be addressed. 5.17. By comparing scenarios MES, Al, A2 and A3 it can be concluded that: (i) the A3 scenario decreases the annual number of dropouts by 40,000 from 1994/95 onward; (ii) the scenarios Al and A2 result in enrollment increases in the upper-basic cycle, but less than in scenario A3; and (iii) scenario A3 comparatively reduces secondary enrollments, which permits a priority resource allocation to basic education. However, although the transition rate from basic to secondary education will be reduced (but net total secondary enrollments will still annually increase by 6% on average), and taking into account the importance of the secondary unit costs, the MES operating budget for secondary education represented only 23 % of its recurrent budget in 1992/93 and will increase to 30% by 2001/02. 5.18. In alternative scenarios Al and A2, the enrollment growth is slower during the 8th Plan, allowing a better spread of the budget, teacher training and the setting up of infrastructure. Nonetheless, with scenario Al the quantitative objectives (in terms of enrollment numbers) are more readily attained than with the original scenario MES. Scenario A2, which gives greater priority than the original scenario MBS to basic education over secondary education produces more or less the same total enrollment numbers in the year 2001 (2,303,000) at both levels taken together (basic and secondary education). Also, with a smaller progression. of secondary education numbers (at an average annual rate of 7% for the 1992/93 to 2001/02 period, against 8.2% in scenario Al), the pressure of demands on higher education is reduced. -41- Table 5.11: Projections of Enrollment in the MES Scenarios A3 and in Scenarios Al and A2 1992 1996/1997 2001/2002 Basic educ. junior cycle MES 1,417,803 1,410,409 1,404,517 Al 1,417,803 1,410,409 1,404,517 A2 1,417,803 1,410,409 1,404,517 A3 1417803 1,410,409 1,444,289 Basic educ. senior cycle MES 308,126 443,065 471,926 Al 308,126 430,657 512,368 A2 308,126 430,657 512,358 A3 308,126 473,864 538,133 Secondary education MES 210,300 320,446 427,253 Al 210,300 315,234 429,433 A2 210,300 297,607 385,975 A3 210,300 293,668 361,916 5.19. At the end of the Eighth Plan the annual budget in scenario Al is much the same as in the MES scenario but, as we have seen before, more gradual. At the end of the Ninth Plan, the annual budget in the case of scenario Al is nevertheless higher than the MES scenario, which is understandable since basic and secondary-education enrollment are higher. The cost of scenario A2 is, however a lot lower for both the Eighth and Ninth Plans. This is easily understandable because this scenario assigns priority to the senior cycle of basic education in which unit costs are 58% lower than in secondary education. The MES has adopted scenario A3 to be executed (after discussion with the Ministry of Plan and Rgional Development and the Ministry of Finances, which both agreed) over the 9th Plan period. Table 5.12B represents the financial projections for the A3 scenario. The overall unit costs for the A3 scenario have been calculated on the basis of the fical budget year 1992 (school year 1991/92), with an annual growth projection of 4% until 2001/02. The MES investment budget (titre II) of basic and secondary education will increase on average by 4% per year, the recurrent (operating = titre I) and investment budget (titre II) for Higher Education will grow on average by 7% per year, and the total Government budget and the GNP both by 6% per year. - 42 - Table 5.12: Evolution of recurrent budgets for basic and secondary education in the MES scenario and scenario Al and A2 (in millions of dinars) lo9 1996 701 Basic education junior cycle MES 299.6 327.63 378.23 Al 299.6 327.63 378.23 A2 299.6 327.63 378.83 Basic education senior cycle MES 194.27 239.23 Al 188.83 260.43 A2 253.7 188.83 260.43 Secondary Education MES 222.59 344.05 Al 218.97 345.80 A2 206.73 310.81 TOTAL MES 553.3 744.49 961.51 Al 553.3 745.43 984.46 A2 553.3 723.19 950.07 Table 5.12B: Evolution of costs for public education related to the Government's budeet and to GDP. In millions of Tunisian Dinars 1991/92 1996/97 2001/02 Average annual growth rate (%) Recurrent basic and 569.0 847.6 1,131.7 +7.1% secondary education Investment basic and 75.9 92.3 112.4 +4% secondary education Recurrent and investment in 169.0 237.0 332.4 +7% Higher Education total MES budget 813.9 1,177.0 1,576.4 +6.8% total Government budget* 3.677.0 4,921.2 6,535.7 +6% GDP 13,177.4 17.634.3 23,598.7 +6% Recurrent budget for the Ist 311.1 387.5 469.1 +4.2% cycle (grades 1-6) of basic education Recurrent budget for the 2nd 124.1 232.2 320.8 +10% cycle (grades 7-9) of basic education Recurrent budget for 133.9 228.0 341.8 +9.8% secondary education (grades 10-13) 1 1 1 1 Total recurrent basic and 569.1 847.7 1,131.7 I secondary education 1 _ _ 1- 1 * Excluded in the Government's budget is foreign debt service -43 - VI: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Conclusions 6.01. By according priority to human resources since independence, Tunisia has attained a satisfactory level of educational development. Even during the 1980s when the economic situation was at its most difficult, Tunisia succeeded in maintaining substantial resources in this sector and increased school attendance while keeping education free. Moreover, by regulating flows and controlling costs, educational development has been balanced. During the last five years, the priority accorded to developing the basic education has resulted in increasing enrollment at that level and a surge in the demand for secondary education. 6.02. Tunisia is favorably placed to pursue an ambitious policy in the education and training sector: (i) implementation of the reform that resulted from the 1991 Law on Education is quite advanced, the phased introduction of the first cycle of basic education (grades 1-6) will be completed by 1994/95, introduction of the total basic education structure in 1997/98 (grades I through 9), and the implementation new secondary-education curriculum started in 1991/92 will be fully operational in 1995/96; (ii) the Law on Vocational Education Guidance has established a new institutional framework and a strategy is being prepared in order to improve the vocational training system; (iii) thanks to the easing of demographic pressure, the numbers of children to be admitted into primary school has been stabilized for the first time; and (iv) the prospects for economic growth during the forthcoming plan are favorable and guarantee an adequate level of resources for enrollment to increase. 6.03. The problems facing the education system in Tunisia are: (i) the slow progress in achieving universal basic education (the net grade 1-6 enrollment rate is expected to reach about 95% by 1995/96); (ii) the persistently high level of dropping out at grade 5 through 9 level of basic education (38%); (iii) the stabilization of the transition rate from grade 6 to 7 (60% in 1992/93 and 70% envisaged for the 9th Plan period) enables at present only 40% of the age group to move into the senior cycle (grade 7) and indicates that the development of universal basic education faces a conjunction of factors that have been insufficiently analyzed and studied in the current education policy. These problems originate in more fundamental causes: teaching methods applied to enhance quality are emphasizing academic quality through selection (teachers believe that selection and failure is a natural phenomena and that, even at primary level, a significant number of pupils should be excluded to maintain quality standards), traditional resistance to changes in school management originating in a highly centralized and hierarchical chain of command, -44- limited access to higher levels (particularly transition from primary to upper-basic education), and the impact of socio-economic environment on academic failure (this makes parents whose children have gained access to upper-basic and secondary education highly motivated to maintain strict selection regulations for fear of quality inflation). 6.04. Additional serious problems resulting from the past and present education strategy are: (i) the persistence of illiteracy at its current level (30-35 % of the adult population) since the number of dropouts at primary level has been significant (some 77,000 students per year during the first six years of basic education (ii) the increasing difficulty experienced by young people wishing to join the labor force because their low level of schooling means that they can only be trained to be semi-skilled workers, the numbers of which are already in excess of the labor market's absorption capacity. (iii) the development of more expensive training (Technical or Vocational Training Schools) to take pupils excluded from primary and upper-basic education until they are aged 16years old the end of compulsory schooling age) cnstitutes poor channeling of resources and results in increased expenditure for the State. (iv) persistence of factors that contribute to inequality, by concentrating about half the school selection process on the basic education cycles. 6.05 Inadequate coordination between the education policy and the vocational training policy means that the MFPE is faced with strategy choices that are difficult to reconcile, given the limited resources at its disposal. The low internal efficiency of vocational training, the excessive dispersal of its training apparatus, the limited size of its centers, and courses that provide insufficient skills to cope with job prospects are all reasons that would prompt the MFPE to restructure its training apparatus, improve the quality of its training and concentrate its resources on centers that could meet the demand of business firms. It will be difficult to do so if it must also increase its admission capacity and maintain training programs with a more social aim at levels of qualification that offer few prospects of integration with the sole aim of taking in pupils who have dropped out of basic education. 6.06. In vocational training, the following changes are necessary to bring the current system in line with employment prospects: (i) since the vocational training system is excessively geared to receiving pupils that have dropped out of general education branches (40% in the first cycle of basic education, 50% in the second cycle, and 42% of dropouts from secondary), it does not adequately meet the demands of the labor market; (ii) the enterprises' needs in technicians are insufficiently met by the current offer of training; (iii) apprenticeship system, which is efficient, is insufficiently developed and organized; (iv) short inexpensive on-the-job training courses should be developed to help those leaving school at the basic-education level to -45 - find jobs requiring little qualification; (v) internal effectiveness of the vocational training system could be substantially improved through regrouping of the centers and better organization, including a review of staffing standards; and (vi) continuing training, now poorly developed in the vocational-training centers, fails to respond to the needs of industry, while the manner in which it is financed provides no incentives. 6.07. The MES' choice of the A3 scenario shows that basic and secondary education can be developed in a more balanced manner. In the long run, this should yield better results in terms of enrollment rates and job insertion. Hence, improving quality and cutting down on selectivity at the basic-education level would not only provide greater equity but would also be economically more efficient. 6.08. However, development of secondary education is closely tied to measures to be taken in higher education. Planning at this level is poorly integrated and budgetary needs tend to be determined separately. The hypothesis adopted in the scenario for development of secondary education offers the MES different alternatives that should be closely studied: (i) it should increase internal efficiency (which would inter alia slow down salary spending), (ii) limit growth of enrollment in higher education and therefore in secondary education, (iii) promote the development of private secondary and higher education (this is already taking place). Furthermore, the capacity to implement new programs and improve quality in secondary education are closely linked to the availability of well-trained teachers and, hence, to the development of specific branches of training in higher education. 6.09. Rapid development of private secondary education would help to reconcile secondary level enrollment ambitions and public budget constraints. The choice of the A3 scenario, that gives priority to basic education, will make for a shortfall of no more than 17,000 secondary-education places, which could be covered by private schools. This will result in an additional average annual growth rate of 4.4% of private education. This growth is sustainable since private secondary enrollments have risen from 39,769 in 1986/87 to 71,152 in 1991/92. In addition, a comparison of private and public schools shows that the latter are equally efficient and less expensive and therefore have their place in the Tunisian secondary-education system. 6.10. Quite substantial savings can be made by reducing the existing disparities in resources among secondary schools. These disparities are particularly significant in terms of staff. Apart from the pilot schools, the best equipped schools tend to have a large size, a high proportion of qualified teachers, are located in the northeast or Sahel area and have a large proportion of science pupils. These disparities in resources result in considerable differences in annual costs per pupil. 6.11. Eliminating over-endowment of resources should not have any adverse consequences on the pupils' achievements, since the level of success at the baccalaur6at in not linked to the resources, but to the pupils admitted. The best endowed schools, such as the pilot high schools, get much of their apparent educational efficiency to the fact that they admit an important proportion of privileged pupils, particularly brighter pupils. Their performance in -46- relatively high cost per pupil in these schools. The teaching staff in secondary education seems to be generous on the whole since the understaffed schools are not less successful than the others. Likewise, the number of pupils by class, in the last year of secondary education, has no significant effect on success in the baccalaur6at. 6.12. Geographical coverage of secondary education can be improved by establishing schools of modest size. This would help to improve access and reduce geographical disparities in academic performance. The choice done in Tunisia to build upper-basic and secondary schools with an average enrollment of about 700-750 pupils is economically efficient. It is not however necessary to create larger establishments, since economies of scale would be very small after 600 pupils. Boarding schools also have a positive influence on equity (they enable pupils to attend secondary school despite long distances between school and home) and are educationally effective. This is no doubt explained by the fact that on the whole they offer disadvantaged pupils conditions of admission and study more conducive to academic success. Recommendations The conclusions of this study suggest the following recommendations: 1. To review of the development of secondary education in a more global framework. The choice of development for secondary education, particularly the debate on the variables governing access to the senior cycle of basic education and to secondary education, should be made in a more global framework: (i) to include higher education in the scenario for its budgetary and educational consequences; (ii) to coordinate with the strategy now being framed in vocational training; (iii) to take into account the economic and social consequences of this choice, especially in terms of employment and equity. 2. To balance in the relative development of basic and secondary education. Development of new capacities in secondary education is compatible with continued development of basic education. The measures to be adopted for basic education are essentially qualitative with a view to reduce school failure and improve quality and equity. The purpose would be to try to eliminate dropping-out of the junior cycle of basic education (grades 1-6). 3. To improve the geographical distribution of the future upper-basic and secondary education schools and resource allocation mechanisms. Development of new capacities in upper-basic and secondary education should aim at: (i) reducing geographical disparities and improving the transition between the two cycles of basic education by building smaller schools and/or providing boarding facilities; and (ii) better distribution of resources, particularly teaching staff, in order to enhance the cost/efficiency. - 47 - 4. To train teachers in using diverse and more effective teaching methods. Development of syllabus content and the quality objectives set by the reform call for upgrading the skills of virtually the entire teaching staff. It also requires recruiting, in the next decade, as many teachers as those currently employed. The continuing education program which the MES intends to set up should be accompanied and coordinated with a similar effort in the initial training of higher education students who intend to become teachers. 5. To encourage and actively develop private education, especially at the secondary level. The private sector can make an important contribution to the development of education in Tunisia, especially secondary education, in which its dynamism should easily meet surplus demand. However, it is in higher education that incentive measures should be taken, for the following reasons: (i) it is at this level that private education is least developed; (ii) private education offers substantial benefits (confirming the better employment prospects of graduates), whereas public-education costs are higher; (iii) the already high demand for higher education will intensify; and (iv) regulation of flows through increased selectivity at the lower levels of education is a less equitable and economically efficient solution than in higher education. It would be more efficient to: (i) replace the present baccalaur6at which is selective for the most part (the percentage of admissions depending on the available places in the public universities) with a baccalaur6at that measures the acquisition of knowledge; (ii) enable all public higher-education establishments to adopt admission procedures that allow them to control their enrollment; (iii) remove the constraints to the creation and functioning of private establishments; (iv) establish transparent procedures for the recognition of diplomas awarded by private educational establishments; and (v) extend the student-loan mechanism to -those in private education. 6. To change the orientation of current capacities in vocational training. The vocational training policy should: (i) be geared to training that provides higher skill level, that can start at the end of basic education or after the junior cycle of secondary education so as to meet the needs for technicians in industry; (ii) develop apprenticeships and short on-the- job training courses for lower levels of qualification; (iii) devote the bulk of resources to enhancing the quality and efficiency of training system (design of establishments, increased size of centers, management, teacher training, equipment, assessment and certification of training achievements, monitoring of the graduates' insertion into the work force); and (iv) encourage private initiatives and the participation of industry. 7. To introduce fmancing incentives in order to develop in-service training and continuing education. The system of financing by the current vocational training tax should be completely overhauled in order to encourage firms to develop continuing- training programs. Furthermore, in organizing continuing training in each sectoral center as a complement to initial training, it would increase links with business, meet the needs of the productive sectors and provide the establishments' budgets with additional resources.