Colombia - The Colombian economy

FILE COPY 0 0 L 0 M B I A The Colombian Econom Loan Department Eastern Latin American Division March 25, 1948 LH/VLU/gvs TI COLOMBIAN ECONOMY A. General Information 1. Geography Situated in the northwestern part of South America, Colombia has a coast line on both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Its area is somewhat less than 450,000 square miles. The western half of the country is traversed from southwest to northeast by three great Andean ranges with peaks as high as 5,800 meters. The eastern half consists of grasslands in the north and tropical jungles in the south. The largest and most important river is the Magdalena, which is more than 1,000 miles long and flows northward. between two mountain ranges to the Caribbean. Although the entire country is in the tropics, its cli- mate varies from hot and. humid. in the coastal plains to very cold. at high mountain- ous altitudes. There are considerable seasonal and geographic variations in precipitation. 2. Poulation and Mapower In 1947 Colombia had an estimated. l0 million people (23 per square mile). Annual growth is nearly 2%. The population is predominantly young, due to fairly high birth and death rates. About 20% is of European stock, 70% of mixed race, mainly mestizo, and the remainder Negro and. Indian. Somewhat less than half the population is literate. In the-estern part of the country is con- centrated the bulk of the population, on the mountain plateaus and in the valleys between the great ranges. Thirty percent of the population is urbanU Bogota, the largest city, has about 400,000 people, Medellin, the chief industrial center, has close to 200,000. More than one-third of the population is reported to be gainfully employed, with 6o% in agriculture, forestry, fishing, and. hunting. 3. Political Structure 2y Latin American standards, Colombia has been successful in attaining a high degree of political democracy and parliamentary tradition. Following a - 2- long period of intermittent civil war lasting from the gaining of independence from Spain up to the beginning of the present cdntury, there has developed a definite feeling of national unity. Colombia is a constitutional unitary republic, but its 15 Departments possss considerable local autonomy. There is universal suffrage, and the President and bicameral Congress are elected by popular vote. The people are -politically conscious, and there is coi+lete freedom of speech and of the press. After a 30-year period of Conservative Party control beginning at the turn of the century, the Liberals (the other major party) took over for 16 years until a split in She party ranks caused the election of a Conservative President in 1946. However, the Liberals retained a Congressional majority. For almost two years the President has had a Cabinet composed of both Conservatives and Liberals. However, s few weeks ago the Liberals withdrew, and on March 22 the President appointed an all-Conservative Cabinet. The labor force of the country is quite well organized, especially in the urban areas. National labor legislation has been fairly progressive, and a comprehensive social security system is now being established. 3. Basic Features of the Economy and Current Trends 1. Iational Income and Economic Growth According to an estimate for the year 1940, Colombiats national income was 1.1 billion pesos, or 120 pesos per capita. In 1947 it was estimated to be at least 2 billion pesos (U.S. $1.2 billion). Of the 1940 total, about one-third was derived directly from agriculture, one-sixth from manufacturing, and one-half from all other sources. Service on foreign investments and on the funded external debt, together with other remittances abroad, represents about 3% of the national income. Almost two-thirds of foreign direct investment is in petroleum. Although no figures are available to show overall increases in real in- come, some indication is given by the trend of agricultural, mineral, and industrial production during the last 15 or 20 years. Encouraged by increased population, -3- improvement in the level of living, tariffs and. other goverment aids, and in- ability to import during the war, agricultural output appears to have doubled since the early 1930's. The area under cultivation has increased by about 20%. The petroleum industry has expanded rapidly from its inception in 1921., reaching a peak output of 25- million barrels of crade oil in 1940. Mbst industrial development has taken place since the early 1930's, and many industries are still expanding their facilities, notably textiles and cement. Along with in- dustrial growth has come a great increase in installed electric power capacity. On the whole, the overall standard of living seems to have risen consid- erably since the 1930's; during the war it appears at least to have held its own, if not to have increased slightly. 2. Production of Goods and Services Agriculture plays the major role in the Colombian economy. Although less than 2% of the total land area is cultivated (with an additional 23%o devoted to pasture), there are known to be vast areas of unutilized good soil, even in the more densely populated western part of the country. The vast eastern grass- land and jungle region has only 0.6% of the cultivated area and, although used mainly as grazing area, has less than 4% of all the cattle in the country. About half the cultivated land is devoted to coffee and corn and one-fourth to sugarcane, wheat, platains, and yuca. Among the other major crops are bananas, beans, rice, potatoes, cacao, tobacco, and fique (a fiber). Cattle are the most important tyoe of livestock raised and are mostly marketed domestically for local consumption. The range of size of farms appears to be extromely wide, and about one in three persons engaged in agriculture is reported to be a proprietor. With some ex- ceptions, Colombian agriculture is crude, and the use of mechanical equipment is unusual except in large holdings. There has been no systematic exploitation of forests, which cover 50-60% of the total land area of Colombia and which are largely 4- government-owned. Most of the timber cut is used locally as fuel and for con- struction, but some of the other forest products such as cinchona, rubber, and divi-divi were exported- in sizable.quantities during the war. Fishing, which is largely confined to the Caribbean Sea and the Magdalena River, is of little im- portance as an occupation and. source of national wealth. Foreign capital has been very important in the mining of precious metals. Colombia is the largest gold producer in South America, but output declined. drastically during the war years because of rising costs and the difficulty of obtaining equipment. The exploitation of salt resources is a government monopoly. Limestone is found in abundance in many regions. Deposits of iron ore are ap- preciable in quantity and quality, but have not been extensively worked. Of special interest are the deposits at Paz de Rio in Boyaca, where reserves may total as much as 50 million tons. Colombian coal is considered to be among the best in South America, but has not been extensively mined. Other industrial minerals are known to exist in Colombia but have not been exploited to any appreciable extent. Petroleum production ranks second in South America and tenth in the world. Known reserves are about 500 million barrels, with annual production running about 24 million barrels. Foreign ownership predominates in the o-oeration of oil fields. Two pipelines transport most of the crude petroleum to Atlantic coast ports for export; the remainder is refined locally for domestic consumption. Despite the local refinery output, imports are necessary to meet domestic needs. Because of recent declines in the yield of the principal concession, the Govern- ment is encouraging the development of new oil resources and is considering legislation to facilitate new exploitation. The largest concession, operated by Tropical Oil (a Standard of New Jersey subsidiary) under a contract with the Government, will revert to the Government in 1951, unless other arrangements are made by that time. The hydroelectric potential is about 4 million kilowatts, of which less than 175,000 has been exploited. Almost half the capacity is in the chief in- dustrial center of Medellin. Three companies serving Medellin, Bogota, Barranailla, and Cali have about 75% of the generating capacity of the country. More than half the -power generated is for -rivate consumers. Steam and- diesel..plants are relatively unimportant. Production and consumption of electric power in Medellin (the largest industrial center) increased by nearly 20% annually in the 1930's and by more than 10% annually in the ensuing years. Production in 1946 was more than double that of 1939, despite distressing shortages of generating and dis- tribution equipment. Demand far exceeds the capacity to supply, and power shortages are continual. Now that imported equipme:nt is again becoming available, generating capacity is being greatly expanded. Althaough remaining essentially an agricultural nation, Colombia has de- veloped. considerable industrial production. Nearly one-fifth of the working population is engaged in manufacturing, including handicrafts; however, probably little more than 10% are actually factory workers. An Industrial Census taken in 1945 indicated that most of the industrial production is of light consumer goods. Among the most important are foodstuffs, beverages, textiles, and clothing, which employ more than half the industrial workers and account for more than two-thirds of the value of output. Despite its wealth in agricultural and mineral resources, Colombia imports a large part of the raw materials used in its factories, and relies almost exclusively on imports for its mechanical equipment. The mountains of Colombia have been the major obstacle in the development of transportation facilities. Freight rates are high on all forms of transport. Among the chief transportation routes is the Magdalena River, the usefulness of which is limited by the difficulty, and often impossibility, of navigation in the dry season. The railroads, covering about 4,000 kilometers, are short and were -6- constructed mainly as feeders to the Magdalena. They forn no national network and are of varying gauges. Although the 18,000 kilometers of highways comprise a larger and more comprehensive route mileage, they have many sections yet to be built. Highways are the only connection between numerous important sections of the cotutry. Of the five principal domestic airlines, the most important is AVIANCA, which has international routes to the United States, Canal Zone, an" Ecuador, in addition to its local routes. A small merchant marine is owned jointly with Venezuela and Ecuador, with both coastwise and international operations. The principal ports are Barranquilla and Cartagena on the Caribbean, and Buenaventura on the Pacific. Bogota is the hub from which the main lines of communication radiate. Because of the mountainous terrain, most telegraph and telephone lines follow the river valleys running generally north and south between the ranges. 3. Development Policy The major emphasis of the Government at present is in the field of in- dustrial development. Through the official Industrial Development Institute created in 1940, investments are made up to 50% in new enterprises. Among the principal projects have been an electric steel and rolling mill at Medellin for processing scrap iron, a bone fertilizer plant at Bogota, lime furnaces, a fique-defibrating plant, a glass factory, and a shipyard. Under the aegis of the Institute are being carried on the -plans for developing an iron and steel industry near the rich deposits 6f iron, coal, and limestone at Paz de Rio. Further government aids to industry have included tariffs, import quotas, and tax exemptions to new industrial establishments. Currently, a large proportion of Government expenditures for economic development is being allocated to rail and highway transportation. Government contracts have been let for the improvement of port facilities. In the field of agriculture, governmental aid has consisted of tariffs, grants of land, agricultural credit, and research in seed selection and cultivation techniques. The National Coffee Federation, a semi-official agency, provides a variety of services to coffee growers and has built up large financial resources. A Forestry Development Institute has been established tb foster conservation and reforestation of forest lands, development of forest industries, and exportation of forest products. In the field of mining, the Government participates directly through a prod.ction monopoly in salt mining and large holdings in silver mining. C. Internal Financial Conditions 1. Money and Banking The Colombian monetary unit is the peso, equivalent to 57.140 U.S. currency, which parity has been registered with the International Monetary Fund. Colombia has only one official buying rate (1.745 pesos per dollar) and one selling rate (1.755 pesos per d.ollar) set by the Central Bank. Currently, commercial rates fluctuate within narrow limits around these official rates. With some ex- ceptions, there is a stamp tax of 4% on s&les of exchange, and an additional 10% is levied on remittances to Colombian residents abroad. In the latter part of 1947, a free exchange market was considered to be tacitly authorized and rates rose sharply, because of the creation of special import licenses which did not entitle importers to obtain official exchange. The free market and. a system of multi:ple free rates appoear to have been definitely legalized. by legislation passed in December, the effect of which will be to permit gold producers to obtain premium prices for Their product through exchange transactions in the free market. The Central Bank is responsible for the general supervision of the ex- change control system, some form of which has been in existence since 1931. From time to time, the regulations have been drastically revised and the eraphasis changed from one means of control to another. At times the controls have been relaxed, as in late 1946 when imports were stimulated as part of a program to restrain inflation. But beginning early in 1947, the Government drastically tightened. the system, in an effort to conserve its dwindling supply of international reserves" Restrictions were established on imports and. available exchnge allocated among groups of commodities favoring only the most essential ones; remittances to persons abroad were prohibited except to government officials, students, and persons requiring medical attention; re-exports of capital were restricted; several types of "delayed-payment" irort licenses were created, providing for the oostponement of the payment of foreign exchange; and "non-reimbursable" licenses were created, which do not entitle importers to obtain official exchange. The Banco de la Republica was established in 1923 as a central bank. It has the sole privilege of issue and coinage; is charged with supervision and con- trol of credit and foreign exchange; acts as fiscal agent of the National Govern- ment, Departments, Municipalities, and other official entities; accepts Government, official, member bank, and private deposits; and acts as a clearing house for its affiliated institutions. Credit operations include primarily loans and discounts to member banks, credits to the Government, and loans to the public (mostly on the security of waehouse receipts on products like coffee). About 401o of the Banks capital is owned by the Government. The required reserve against notes is 30% in gold or demand depo,..ts abroad, and against d.eposits is 25fo in gold, silver, or other cash legally computable as reserves (chiefly national notes and fractional currencd. The issue of Central Bank notes, which are the most important type of circulating medium, is authorized onlyffor the purchase of gold, the purchase or discount of 90-day drafts and bills of exchange on foreign countries, and discount and. rediscount of commercial and agricultural paper up to 180 days, provided that paper of over 90 days does not exceed one-third of the Bank's paid-up capital and surplus. The banking system includes about 25 institutions (exclusive of branches and agencies), composed principally of domestic and foreign commercial banks and. the semi-official mortgage banks, savings bank, agricultural and industrial credit institutions, and industrial development institutions. All banking institutions are .9- under the supervision of the Banking Superintendent, a sabordinatO of the Minister of Finance. There are more than 25 insurance companies licensed to do business in Colombia. The3re is no call or short term money market. The structure of interest rates is influenced primarily by action of the official banks. Discount rates of the Central Bank have remained at 4 since 1933, while the agricultural credit bank charges t o to 8I. A 6% interest rate is normal in the commercial credit field, rates on mortgage loans are 8 or 95o, and interest on savings de- posits is 2,. In Bogota and Medellin there are well-organized stock exchanges. Recently proposals have been made to liberalize banking regulations by such means as the broadening of credit facilities of official institutions, establish- ment of a flexible rate of reserves to deposits for member ban!Ls, increase of the Central Bank's authorized investment in National Government obligations, and reduction in the member banks' reouired holdings of capital stock in the Central Bank. 2,, Money, Prices, Cost of Living, and Wages There was a period of almost uninterrupted inflationary movement during the war years. The money supply rose 350%; price and cost of living indexes showed con,siderably smaller increases. Available wage and employment data are incomplete, but real industrial wages appear to have increased by about one-fourth between 1938 and 1945. In the early part of 1947, several deflationary elements made their appearance. Money supply declined, primarily because of the drain on international reserves. Wholesale and retail orice indexes and coffee prices dropped. The stock price index began a decline which was not reversed until after June and then registered only a slight recovery. But the deflationary movement proved to be only temporary, and by the end of 1947 monetary supply had reached a peak figure because of domestic credit expansion, despite decreased international reserves. Wholesale and retail prices rose to record levels, as did the cost of living index, -10- which registered only one monthly decline during 1947. Likewise, coffee prices reached record highs. At the yearls end, in relation to 1937 the money supply index was 494, the wholesale price index was 305, the retail index 294, and the cost of living index for a worker's family in Bogota was 253. Inflation has con- tinued despite the efforts of official agencies to enforce price control and to intervene in the marketing of articles of prime necessity in short supply, especially imported foodstuffs. Although proceeding at a slower rate than in 1946, inflation shows little indication of coming to a halt in the near future. 3. Public Finance and Internal Debt The Colombian public finance system has depended considerably on foreign trade developments, as customs revenues have ordinarily constituted one-third t6 one-half of total revenues. However, in recent years customs duties have been overshadowed by returns from income, property, and excess profits taxes, which have risen every year since 1932 and doubled between 1944 and 1946. On the ex- penditure side, economic development (including highways and other public works and aid. to agriculture, industry, etc.) (20%), national defense (13%), public debt service (17%), and justice and internal order (10%) aggregate about 60o% of the total. Budget deficits began to appear during the war years and have increased yearly, with the exception of 194$. In the main, these deficits originated from government-sponsored industrial and agricultural development programs, and subsidies to the coffee industry to offset the wartime decline in export volume. On the basis of incomplete information, 1947 budget operations appear to have resulted in a sizable deficit. In the 1948 budget now being built up, there is no indication that revenues will be sufficient to cover the sizably increased expenditures likely to be incurred. Although the practice of continued deficits has been criticized in official quarters, no concrete effort is apparent to bring budgets into balance. -11- The National Government public debt is about 450 million pesos, of which internal debt represents approximately 60%. The internal debt has originated mostly from borrowing to cover budget deficits. In recent years, these borrowings have aggregated almost one-third the size of budget revenues. Annual service requirements on the internal debt amount to more than 30 million pesos or about 20% of total expenditures. Deficit financing has had. an inflationary effect in that over half the internal debt is reportedly held by commercial banks. D. External Economic Relations 1. Foreign Trade Colombia ranks seventh among Latin American countries in foreign trade. Twenty-five percent or more of the total economic activity of the country is directed toward foreign markets. Coffee is the chief export, and with petroleum and gold constitutes well over 90% of the annual gold and foreign exchange earnings on merchandise account. Other exports of considerable importance are bananas, platinum, cotton fabrics, and cattle. Imports are considerably more diversified than exports, but manufactures typically account for more than 90% of the value, with finished manufactures leading semi-finished. Of foodstuffs and raw materials, wheat, cotton, and copra are the most important, Before the war, European countries took about 20% of Colombia's exports and furnished about 440% of her im-ports. Latin America was relatively unimportant. During the war years, trade with Europe practically ceased, the United States became predominant both as re- cipient of exports and supplier of iiports, and Latin America supplied more than 20% of Colombia's imports. Available 1947 data showed the United States still leading in both exports and imports, and the position of Latin America declining. Prior to the war and during the first two years of the war, the value of merchandise exports, including gold., generally showed a slight surplus over mer- chandise imports. But very large annual surpluses were experienced in the period - 12 - 1942-44, even though gold exports practically ceased after 1942. In 1945 and 1946, the trade balance turned negative to the extent of sizable import surpluses. Export figures are somewhat misleading. Not all of the exchange earned from ex- ports returns to Colombia. Petroleum production, about 50% of gold production, and some industrial and agricultural enterprises are in foreign hands. But it appears that a major part of the exchange earned by foreigners is typically rein- vested in Colombia. Since 1931, a variety of controls has been imposed upon foreign trade. Before the war, these related principally to imports and consisted of tariffs, im- port quotas, exchange controls, and several compensation and clearing agreements. Import tariffs were high, designed for protection rather than for raising the maximum possible revenue. During and since the war, controls have changed. relatively little, except that the exchange control system has recently been-strengthened. Colombia has reciprocal most-favored.-nation trade agreements with a number of countries including the United States, and has recently concluded special trade treaties with its neighbors, Ecuador and Venezuela. 2. Gold and Foreig n Exchange Holdig Gold and foreign exchange holdings of the Central Bank constitute practically all the country's international reserves. Foreign exchange consist almost ex- clusively of dollars. Because of the rise in coffee and other export prices, forced curtailment of imports, gold purchases by the Central Bank, and a large inflow of capital, particularly from foreign-owned petroleum companies, the Central Bank's net gold and foreign exchange reserves accumulated during the war years to a record level of U.S. $187 million, more than six times that of 1938. But beginning gradually in the latter months of 1946 and accelerating greatly in 1947, interna- tional reserves dropped precipitously, primarily because of the marked expansion in commodity imports, due to their increased availability, deferred demand, increased. incomes, liberal issuance of import licenses, and withholding of coffee exports in - 13 - anticipation of higher prices. Following the imposition of tightened exchange control regulations in late summer and the resumption of coffee exports, the downward trend of international reserves was reversed. The present holdings, after deduction of reserves for currency and deposit backing, stand at about U.S. $50 million in freely disposable funds, representing only a small fraction of the 1947 import figure. 3. Balance of Payments Following sizable balance of payments surpluses during the war years, there was a virtual balance in 1946, with a very slight excess of payments. De- ficits of U.S. $27 million on merchandise account and U.S. $30 million on other current accounts were practically offset by capital imports and domestic gold pur- chases. However, for 1947 a total deficit of U.S. $60 million was incurred, primmily because of increased merchandise imports and because exchange receipts were slightly lower than anticipated. Bxports of merdhandise totaled U.S.$216 million and imports U.S. $299 million. This U.S. $83 million trade deficit, together with a U.S. $35 million deficit on other current accounts, was only partially offset by capital imports of U.S. $45 million and domestic gold purchases of U.S. $14 million. Had not imports and other payment items been severely curtailed during the latter e5 part of 1947, the deficit would have been far in excess of U.S. $60 million. For 1948, the outlook is for another deficit, or a virtual balance if imports can be held down to about one-half to two-thirds of the 1947 figure. The 1948 proceeds from coffee exports, the chief provider of foreign exchange, may well equal or even exceed those of 1947 because of.currently favorable market conditions. Pros- pects are not so bright for capital imports, which may remain stationary in 1948 or even decline because of the uncertainties facing the petroleum industry. The largest petroleum -producer has already announced a 50% reduction in its new capital investment in Colombia in 1948 as compared with 1947. The third chief item of -14- exchange receipts, gold purchases, may well increase in 1948 because of the recent legislative encouragement to gold miners. On the payments side, public external debt service will be considerably increased by new disbursements on Eximbank loans and by the National GovernmentIs assumption of the Departmental and Munici-Pal defaulted external debt. If merchandise imports can be cut down about one-third to one-half of the 1947 level, it is likely that the international accounts may balance in 1948 without further drain on reserves. The wartime im- port backlog estimated at U.S. $25-50 million has probably already been absorbed. Of course, a sizable dro-p in coffee prices or a decline in capital imports would probably necessitate the drawing down of reserves to meet international payments. 4. External Debt The external debt is about U.S. $84 million, consisting of $54 million funded debt in dollar and sterling bonds and $30 million floating debt composed principally of Eximbank loans, a syndicate loan from a group of foreign bankers headed by the National City Bank of New York, and balances due various engineering and oil companies for pu"Olic works. Recent legislation has authorized guarantee by the National Government of the external funded indebtedness of the Departments and Municipalities, amounting to more than U.S. $80 million. Currently, a refunding offer is outstanding to all holders of National, Departmental, and Municioal external bonds, to exchange them for new Republic 3% bonds due in 1970 and 1972. Acceptance of the refunding plan would raise annual service requirements to about U.S. $11 million. As of February 29, 1948, the Eximbank had disbursed loans to Colombia in the amount of U.S. $35.3 million, of which $18.2 million remained outstanding. 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