Fiscal deficit, growth and inflation : a macroeconomic framework for Tunisia

THE WORLD BANK Internal Discussion Paper EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION Report No. IDP-0045 Fiscal Deficit, Growth and Inflation A Macroeconomic Framework for Tunisia Aysegul Akin-Karasapan, James Parks and Setareh Razmara July 1989 Office of the Vice President Europe, Middle East and North Africa Region Discussion Papers are not fonnal publications of the World Bank They present preliminary and unpolished results of country analysis or research that is circulated to encourage discussion and comment; citation and the use of such a paper should take account of its provisional character. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. Fiscal Deficit, Growth and Inflation A Macroeconomic Framevork for Tunisia BY Aysegul Akin-Karasapan James Parks and Setareh Rasmara July, 1989 The authors are Economists and Research Assistant in Europe, Middle East and North Africa Region (EMENA). ABSTRACT This paper discusses the medium- term macroeconomic scenario (1989-94) recently prepared by the Tunisian government and presents an evaluation of its critical aspects. The analysis is supported by a framework developed by EM2CO to specifically address macroeconomic policy questions in Tunisia. The framework's chief distinguishing feature is its full integration of real and financial sectors of the economy within a computable general equilibrium setting. A detailed set of flow of funds accounts allows the framework to model tunisian institutional realities. Three aspects of the government's scenario are analyzed here: (i) the compatibility of budget deficit targets with other medium-term macroeconomic objectives such as higher growth rates and low inflation; (ii) the feasibility of deficit reductions given expected trends in budgetary revenues and expenditures; and (iii) the macroeconomic implications of switching away from external borrowing in deficit finance. The results of the analysis clearly highlight the budget deficit and its financing as key issues for Tunisia in the medium-term. The authorities are relying on significant expenditure cuts in 1990 and 1991 to bring the deficit down to under 2% of GDP. While such rapid expenditure reduction may be optimistic, simulation results presented here show that, given the government's revenue projections, expenditure cuts, possibly over a longer time period, are essential if the government is to meet its medium-term objectives of sustained growth with low inflation and a reduction in foreign indebtedness. FISCAL DEFICIT. GRONTH AND INFXATION: A _ACR0ECONOMIC RAMEiK .FOR TUNISIA TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION: Page 1 II. THE MACROFRAMEWORK: Page 3 - Functioning of the framework III. THE MEDIUM-TERM STRATEGY OF TUNISIA: Page 11 IV. EVALUATION OF THE TUNISIAN SCENARIO: Page 12 - Consistency of the Tunisian Scenario & Compatibility of the Targets - The Feasibility of the Budget Deficit Targets V. FINANCING A HIGHER DEFICIT: POLICY SIMULATIONS Page 22 - Scenario 2: Domestic Borrowing without a Change in Monetary Policy - Scenario 3: Higher Domestic Borrowing with Monetary Expansion VI. CONCLUSIONS Page 42 VII. REFERENCES Page 44 VIII. TECHNICAL ANNEX Page 46 The views and interpretations expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views and poliies of the World Bank or of its Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The authors would Itk to thank Waft Graels, artha de Nelo, adA Vittorio Corbo for their helpftl comats, as well as R41fte Talon for her excellent manuscript preparation. I. INTRODUCTION: 1.01 This paper discusses the medium-term macroeconomic scenario (1989-94) recently prepared by the Tunisian government and presents an evaluation of its critical aspects. The analysis focuses on the budget deficit, one of the central issues for Tunisia in the medium-term. The Tunisian scenario indicates significant reductions in the budget deficit as a share of GDP as well as a marked change in its financing from foreign to domestic sources. In this context, three types of issues are analyzed here: (i) the compatibility of budget deficit targets with other medium-term macroeconomic objectives such as higher growth rates and low inflation; (ii) the feasibility of deficit reductions given expected trends in budgetary revenues and expenditures; and (iii) the macroeconomic implications of switching away from external borrowing in deficit finance. The medium-term effects of increased domestic borrowing, if accompanied by expansionary monetary policy or not, on interest rates, investment, growth and inflation would be quite different. The implications of expansionary fiscal policy with and without monetary expansion as two alternative choices are also analyzed. 1.02 The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Section II describes the main characteristics, structure, and function of the macroeconomic framework developed for Tunisia. Section III summarizes the features of the Tunisian authorities' medium-term strategy. The goals and targets of the Tunisian government's scenario are reviewed. Section IV presents an evaluation of the Tunisian scenario. The internal consistency of the Tunisian scenario is assessed by testing the compatibility of the government's targets with its fiscal and monetary strategies using the macroframework described in Section II. An analysis of projected budgetary revenues and expenditures is also provided. The -2- short-term impact of higher deficite on various macro variables is analyzed through comparative-static simulations based on the macroframework. Section V considers the impact of higher- than- targeted budget deficits on the Tunisian macroeconomic objectives over time. This dynamic analysis of the Tunisian medium-term strategies and goals is carried out in the context of two alternative scenarios produced with the framework. These alternatives consist of higher deficit spending with and without accommodating monetary expansion. Section VI summarizes the main conclusions derived from the analysis. *3- II. THE NACROFRANMORK: 2.01 This paper makes use of a framework specifically designed to address macroeconomic policy questions, including the budget deficit and its financing, within the Tunisian institutional structure. In this section, the Tunisian macroframework is briefly described. Conceptually, the Tunisian macroframework consists of two components: a) The flo funds, i.e., the accounting framework which describes the markets, the agents involved in each market and their interactions, and b) t, which consists of the technological and behavioral equations determining the rules of action for each agent. The flow of funds embodies the main institutional characteristics of the Tunisian economy while the equations in the model are specified to reflect, to the extent possible, the way the agents behave in this environment. In fact, the framework is set up in such a way that, if needed, the specification of behavioral and technological equations can be changed without altering the institutional environment, i.e., the flow of funds. This accounting ftramework also ensures the internal consistency of projections. The framework is designed to automatically present the projections in a flow of funds format, exactly comparable to that of the historical series. 2.02 The Tunisian macroframework is the outcome of the modelling work carried out in EK2CO. Its structure follows closely that of the general macroeconomic framework developed by EW2CO staff and described in Gray, Parks, and Ziller (Gray et.al., 1988). It also borrows heavily from the institutional structure of the earlier model of de Melo, Leduc, and Rasmara (de Halo, et.al., -4- 1989) for Tunisia, although significant differences exist in structure and concept. 2.03 What distinguishes this framework from those used for Tunisia in the past, i.e., RMSM and de Melo model, is a number of features it introduces which greatly enhances its analytical capability. The Tunisia framework fully integrates the real with the financial sector, allowing for a complete analysis of the interaction between the financial sectors and the real sectors of the economy. On the financial side, the introduction of an explicit portfolio function allows the modelling of more than two financial markets. On the real side, the framework introduces two productive sectors by distinguishing between public and private enterprises. This distinction makes it possible to capture the differences as well as the complementarities between public and private investment. Furthermore, it incorporates a dynamic private investment function to explicitly analyze the dependence of private investment on macroeconomic conditions. 2.04 Another advantage of the Tunisian macroframevork is the flexibility it provides to the user. Within the same flow of funds, equations specified in the model can be substituted by others, e.g., calibrated equations by econometrically estimated ones. Similarly, the closure of the model can easily be changed by redefining what is exogenous and what is endogenous, thereby greatly expanding the number of policy experiments that can be done. It also allo*s the user to check the viability of certain macro targets by setting the value of that variable at target levels and solving for other variables. 2.05 The Tunisian flow of funds module comprises eight economic agents, i.e., the central bank, the central government, the local administration, -5- financial institutions, public enterprises, private enterprises, households and the rest of the world. The flow of funds maintains stock as well as flow balances for these agents. The separation of central bank and central government accounts enables one to understand the effects of their interactions on the economy. If necessary, however, they can easily be consolidated. The flow of funds also provides a detailed central government budget routine which enables one to carry out V'&dget simulations and trace out their impact on other macro variables. The breakdown of the budget is based on the Tunisian budget classification to facilitate comparisons of projections and policy discussions. A more detailed description of the flow of funds and the model are presented in a technical annex. Functioning of the Macroframework: 2.06 As lags are incorporated into certain equations, the macroframework is calibrated on flow of funds data covering the years 1986-1988. The flow of funds data consists of a series of financial and real sector balances for stocks and flows. 2.07 Production by private and Dublic enterrises: As noted earlier, the model depicts two productive sectors, private and public enterprises. Each sector produces the same output. Production equations of both sectors are specified as CES functions. Private enterprise production is a function of the private capital stock which remains fixed within period, and labor demand which in turn depends on the real wage rate. Public capital is also included as a third factor to allow for complementarity between private and public investment. Similarly, private capital enters the public enterprise production function as -6* a third factor reflecting a symmetry in complementarity. Employment in the public enterprise sector is exogenous and consequently public sector profitability is endogenous. In the scenarios described here, wage dynamics are specified to keep the real private sector wage constant within the period through adjustments in the nominal wage. Given firm employment and the fixed within period capital stock of firms, domestic output is determined independently of any within-period price movements. Investment is a function of expected profitability of future investments. More specifically it depends on the expected real wage, expected real interest rate and the rate of depreciation. 2.08 Households: Household income derives from labor income, transfers and interest income on deposits and financial investments. Household savings (and consumption) are determined as a fixed share of income. Savings, together with capital gains on investment makes up the change in total wealth. As specified in the portfolio equation, the new wealth stock (net of required direct holdings of government debt) is allocated to money, deposits and equity (i.e., direct investment). The portfolio equation incorporates two competing effects. First, in order to reduce risk, households tend to favor balanced portfolios distributed across the three assets. Second, households substitute towards assets with higher real expected relative rates of return.UV An elasticity of substitution parameter controls the sensitivity of the substitution effect. 1/ In the scenarios presented here, all price expectations are modelled as static expectations. While expectations are static, they are based on price movements this period, not those from last period. In this way expectations are endogenous, not exogenous as is the case for standard static expectations. See the Technical Annex for further details. - 7 - 2.09 Qgrnment: The central government collects direct and indirect taxes, receives oil revenues, central bank profits, and dividends from public enterprise. It consumes goods and services, provides transfer payments, and invests. Its deficit is financed through foreign and domestic credit as well as central bank advances. Local government is defined as the difference between central government and public administration as given by the national accounts. 2.10 External Sector: In the scenarios presented here, the entire capital account--new foreign borrowing, foreign investment, and grants--is taken as exogenous in foreign currency.-V On the current account side, workers' remittances, other not foreign transfers, and foreign interest payments are assumed exogenous. World prices and world inflation are also exogenous. Both imports and exports are functions of GDP and the real exchange rate. Given a level of output, therefore, one can solve for the trade balance (and thereby the change in reserves) by setting the real exchange rate to a desired value; or, by fixing the level of reserves (and thereby the trade balance), one can derive the consistent real exchange rate. Given a real exchange rate, the nominal exchange rate, together with the foreign inflation rate, determines the consistent domestic rate of inflation. 2.11 All of the scenarios analyzed here assume a fixed reserve (and therefore trade balance) target. In this case there are two pathways for determining domestic inflation. If monetary policy targets the nominal rate of See the technical annex for more detail on the flow of funds and the functioning of the macroframework. The capital account is determined in an independent debt module incorporating the Debt Reporting System (DRS) pipeline. * 8 - devaluation--as in the Tunisian government's scenario, then the domestic inflation rate will also be determined independently of the money market, i.e., the central bank will have to accommodate the money demand given by the domestic inflation rate derived from the consistent real exchange rate, world inflation, and the targeted nominal devaluation. On the other hand, if the inflation rate is derived from the money market equilibriun the nominal rate of devaluation has to become endogenous. 2.12 Mn Market: Base money issued by the Central Bank is held by two agents, households and banks. The demand for real money balances is a function of real wealth, the real GDP growth rate, and the relative real return on money and other assets. The stock of base money supplied by the Central Bank must remain equal to the stock of base money demanded by banks and households. Since under our assumptions, output (and thereby growth) is fixed independently of price movements, it is only the price level (and thereby the inflation rate) Or, equivalently, from the goods market equilibrium. The aggregate demand curve for the framework under the assumptions made here can be written conceptually as: Yo - C(Y) + G + I(i-wo) + Nx(eP'/P, Y) This AD curve will slope down in P-Y space through a combination of effects. First, a drop in the price level increases competitiveness and thereby NX. Second, a drop in the price - level, which leads to capital losses on equity, unbalances the portfolio. As long as the distribution effect outweighs the substitution effect in the portfolio equation, households react to rebalance their portfolio by shifting savings away from financial assets and towards equity. This shift causes an increase in the total savings available for investment, leading to a drop in the real interest rate and thereby an increase in investment. -9- which adjusts in the end to maintain equilibrium in the money market. The change in the central bank's supply of base money is determined by the change in its net foreign assets as well as the amount of new credit issued to financial institutions, public enterprises and the government, in addition to changes in central bank capital and the reserves of domestic financial institutions. As pointed out above, if the government chooses to target the rate of nominal devaluation and the trade balance, the central bank has to adjust its base money supply according to money demand. 2.13 The Eaulty Market: The equity market is quite straightforward. This is a direct investment market, not a stock market. Therefore, the price of equity is equal to the price of capital. Firms are assumed to be willing to hold all the equity that households wish to invest. 2.14 Financial .Institutions: Financial institutions make the domestic credit market. On the liability side, they accept deposits from households. They borrow loanable funds from the central bank and foreign sources. They also receive loanable resources from the government and from households. On the asset side, financial institutions lend to the government, to private and public firms. In addition, financial institutions hold domestic reserves and not foreign assets. In the credit market, government and public enterprise borrowing Of course, changes in the inflation rate affect the relative rates of return on assets as well as the stock of real wealth. These effects, however, only alter the amount of price level adjustment necessary to reach equilibrium. Under conditions of fixed real savings, if the substitution effect becomes dominant in portfolio allocation, then the point of maximum inflation tax has been reached and money market equilibrium can be only be achieved by reducing the amount of money printed this period or raising reserve requirements. . 10 - requirements are assumed to be met first. Private investment, therefore, must adjust to the residual credit supply. If there is excess demand in the credit market, real interest rates vill rise to reduce private credit demand. Rising real interest rates also increase credit supply as households shift their portfolios in favor of deposits. . 11 - III. THE MEDIUM-TERM STRATEGY OF TUNISIA: 3.01 The current Tunisian government scenario indicates that the main objectives for the medium-term are: (i) to achieve higher growth to reduce the high unemployment rate, (ii) to improve creditworthiness and bring down the current account deficit by lowering the foreign debt to GDP ratio, and (iii) to expand the role of the private sector, particularly in the tradeables sector, by improving private sector incentives and stimulating private investment. 3.02 With these objectives, the Tunisian scenario defines the strategy for monetary and fiscal policies in the medium-term. The strategy for monetary policy is twofold: On the one hand, to keep real interest rates low and provide interest rate and price stability to enhance private investor confidence and encourage private investment, and, on the other, to stimulate domestic financial savings by keeping real interest rates positive. This strategy implies stable interest rates and low inflation. Moreover, since higher investment and growth imply growing imports, exports must also increase to maintain the stability of the current account deficit. To ensure the continuation of the international competitiveness of Tunisian exports, the exchange rate strategy is to hold the real exchange rate constant through small and gradual nominal devaluations. 3.03 The fiscal strategy pursued by the Tunisians aims at reducing the level of the government's external debt by using less external borrowing in financing the deficit and, at the same time, avoiding crowding out private investment in the domestic credit market. This implies reductions in the deficit as a share of GDP, as well as a switch from foreign to domestic financing. * 12 - IV. EVALUATION 0 THE TUNISIAN SCENARIO: Consistency of the Tunisian Scenario and ComUatibility of the Tarets: 4.01 The macroframework described earlier is used to test the compatibility of the Tunisian targets and the overall consistency of the government's scenario. To accomplish this, a first scenario, SMaio 1 is produced with the macroframework taking the targets of the government's scenario as exogenous. Specifically, the following are set to the government's projections: the entire external sector; i.e., workers' remittances, the resource gap, reserve changes, foreign interest payments, not foreign transfers, not foreign borrowing, and foreign grants; the terms of trade; the expected nominal devaluation of the Tunisian Dinar; government revenues and expenditures, and therefore the deficit; GDP growth, and total investmentY In turn, the macroframework endogenously determines, among other variables: the real exchange rate, domestic prices and inflation, savings and consumption, total factor productivity growth (determined by the GDP growth target) and employment. 4.02 Scenario 1, then, embodies the medium-term projections derived from the macroframework under the Tunisian government's assumptions. Table 1 presents selected macroeconomic indicators for scenario 1, while table 2 presents details of the central government budget projections.# As can be seen in Table 1, the Tunisian government expects GDP growth, after falling to 4.1% in 1990, to rise & The investment/savings balance is assured by endogenizing households' marginal propensity to consume out of income and thereby household savings. Expanded versions of tables 1-6 presented in the text are included in appendix C of the Technical Annex. - 13 - 27 n 1989 1 Table 1 TUNISIA: SELECTD INDICATGR Scenario 1 (Tunistan Scenario) SMANE 1986 1987 1988 1969 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Inflation (CPI) 6.4% 7.6% 7.1% 7.9% 7.0% 6.1% 6.2% 5.2% 4.9% Inflation (OP deflator) 3.3% 7.6% 6.3% 8.4% 7.0% 5.9% 5.9% 5.0% 4.7% DP Grouth Rate -1.6% 5.8% 1.5% 5.1% 4.1% 4.2% 5.0% 5.1% 5.5% Total Consmtion Grouth Rote 0.6% 1.4% 1.4% 4.4% 3.5% 2.5% 3.2% 3.9% 3.6% 000/®P 67.1% 70.6% 65.42 65.8% 62.4% 59.7% 56.0% 52.8% 49.8% National Savings/0P 15.5% 19.9% 19.3% 20.5% 20.6% 21.7% 22.8% 23.5% 24.7% oroas Inmstmnt/GP 23.5% 20.9% 19.1% 22.0% 22.9% 23.9% 25.0% 25.6% 26.6% Chanes in Stock/OP -0.5% 0.6% .1.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% Public Inmstmnt/OP 3/ 13.5% 11.3% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% Private Investment/GP 10.5% 9.0% 9.1% 9.7% 10.8% 11.8% 12.8% 13.7% 14.6% Ratio of Pub/Prv inestment 128.1% 125.5% 125.7% 118.3% 106.6% 97.6% 89.9% 84.0% 78.9% Government Revenus/®P 31.2% 28.7% 28.8% 28.5% 26.8% 25.6% 24.9% 23.9% 23.3% rovrment Expnditures/aDP 4/ 36.4% 31.6% 33.2% 32.4% 29.8% 27.9% 26.7% 25.8% 25.2% Def (.> or Suplus (+/®P 4/ .5.3% -2.8% -4.4% .3.9% .3.0% .2.3% -1.8% -1.9% -1.9% Exports/OP 30.8% 35.0% 42.2% 41.1% 41.0% 41.1% 41.0% 41.1% 41.2% Inports/OP 38.0% 36.2% 42.1% 43.0% 43.4% 43.3% 43.1% 43.1% 43.0% Res~uc p/oDP .7.3% -1.2% 0.1% -1.9% -2.4% -2.2% -2.1% .2.1% .1.8% Current Account/®P -8.0% -1.0% 0.2% -1.5% .2.4% -2.1% -2.1% .2.1% -1.9% Chang in Inter. Reserves in 18$ -241.9 115.8 348.5 86.0 78.9 157.1 90.3 64.6 193.9 Gross Res as Month of INPGUFSUFS 8) /5 1.3 2.1 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 Not Reserves as nonth of INPORFS /6 0.2 0.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.3 Bse Noney/GP 1G.6% 10.1% 9.9% 9.9% 10.3% 10.4% 10.6% 10.9% 11.1% U2/CP 51.7% 51.9% 53.0% 53.0% 54.0% 55.2% 56.0% 56.9% 57.8% Total Enterprise Productivity 0.862 0.882 0.896 0.907 0.919 0.930 0.940 Grouth 2.4% 1.6% 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% Total Eploymnt 1560 1625 1669 1761.3 1836.7 1910.4 2000.0 2096.3 2202.9 Growth 4.2% 2.7% 5.5% 4.3% 4.0% 4.7% 4.8% 5.1% Nouinal Exchange Rata (US f > 0.794 0.829 0.860 0.930 0.958 0.987 1.006 1.027 1.037 Tr~aUsighted Reat Exchange Rato 0.867 0.952 1.001 0.997 0.996 0.995 0.993 0.993 0.993 Noinel Pvt Oorrowing Interest Rate 9.2% 9.4% 9.4% 10.7% 10.3% 9.4% 9.6% 8.7% 8.4% Real Pvt Oorrowin Interest Rate 2.7% 1.6% 2.1% 2.6% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 3/ Pblic Administration and Publc Enterprise 4/ Not of Amortization. 5/ Central Sank only 6/ Central Sank and Financial Institutions - 14 - 7 Jul 1989 1 Table 2 Wt sudmot Projections for Tunfse tret quentitis in 198 meittin diners) (grouth ratas in percent> Scamnrio 1 (Tunislan acer1o nM9 1986 1987 1988 1989 19im 1991 1992 1993 1994 1. Resi Not Fiscal Revnuos 1589.5 1516.4 1535.6 1552.4 1615.7 1689.8 1792.2 1892.8 2003.4 Groth In Real Not Fical Rvenues -4.6 1.3 1.1 4.1 4.6 6.1 5.6 5.8 Rest Direct Taxes and Otheri 520.0 440.7 413.6 393.4 411.5 419.3 434.0 454.4 468.5 Grouth in Rest D. Taxs and Othera -15.3 -6.1 -4.9 4.6 1.9 3.5 4.7 3.1 Real Not Indirect Taxes 1069.5 1075.7 1122.0 1159.1 1204.3 1270.5 1358.2 1438.5 1534.9 Grouth In Ret Not Indirect Txs 0.6 4.3 3.3 3.9 5.5 6.9 5.9 6.7 2. Reat Nt Non-Fiscat Rovenus 652.1 699.4 729.6 78.7 654.6 563.0 546.1 472.4 416.2 ~routh In Rest mot Non-Fiscat Rev 7.2 4.3 8.1 -17.0 -14.0 .3.0 -13.5 -11.9 Rest 01t Revenus 357.8 374.5 403.0 385.1 38.1 312.8 297.1 226.1 174.6 Grouth in Rent 01t Revus 4.7 7.6 -9.4 -7.4 -7.5 -5.0 -23.9 -22.8 Rest other Non-fiscal Revues 294.3 324.9 326.6 423.6 316.5 250.2 249.0 246.3 241.6 Groth In Rest Other NF Revuws 10.4 0.5 29.7 -25.3 .20.9 -0.5 .1.1 -1.9 3. Total Rest Net Revenus (1+2> 2241.7 2215.8 2265.2 2341.2 2270.4 2252.8 2338.3 2365.2 2419.6 Gro~th In Res Not Revenues -1.2 2.2 3.4 -3.0 -0.8 3.8 1.2 2.3 4. Rest Total Net Expenseu 2663.7 2457.0 2642.2 2697.4 2555.8 2480.1 2527.1 2568.6 2636.8 Groth In Total Net Expinsas -7.8 7.5 2.1 -5.3 -3.0 1.9 1.6 2.7 5. Rest Interest Paymts 216.4 247.7 251.0 277.3 297.9 292.2 291.0 289.9 291.9 6. Ret Total Exp Not of Interest (4-5) 2447.3 2209.4 2391.2 2420.0 2257.9 2187.9 2236.1 2278.7 2344.9 Grouth In Total Reat Expenses Nol -9.7 8.2 1.2 -6.7 -3.1 2.2 1.9 2.9 7. Rel Govt lunvstant 343.7 287.2 346.5 355.9 359.4 363.0 368.5 374.0 319.7 Groth In Rest Govt Investent .16.4 20.6 2.7 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 8. Ret Govt Satarfes 889.1 888.9 905.0 980.3 999.9 1019.9 1050.8 1082.5 1115.3 Groth in Resi Govt sataries 0.0 1.8 8.3 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 9. keat Govt Consumptfon 321.7 333.5 320.5 342.6 342.6 342.6 346.1 349.5 353.1 Grouth In Ret Govt Cons~tion 3.7 -3.9 6.9 -0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 10. Resl Total Residual Emp (6-7.8.9) 892.8 699.7 819.2 741.2 555.9 462.4 470.8 472.6 496.9 Grouth In Rost Residuat Expens~ -21.6 17.1 -9.5 .25.0 -16.8 1.8 0.4 5.1 11. Roat Net Deficit (4-3> 422.1 241.3 377.0 356.2 285.4 227.3 188.8 203.4 217.3 Roat Not foreign Borrouing 298.4 113.5 185.4 171.6 120.5 53.0 38.7 43.6 55.8 Rest Net Domstic Sorrsing 123.7 127.7 191.6 184.6 164.9 174.3 150.1 159.8 161.4 GDP def Later 0.874 0.941 1.000 1.084 1.161 1.228 1.300 1.366 1.430 - 15 - steadily, reaching 5.5% by 1994. Gross investment is expected to rise sharply, from 19.1% in 1988 to 26.6% by 1994. In line with the government's strategy of reducing foreign indebtedness, this increase in investment is expected to be financed mainly through domestic savings. Accordingly, the domestic savings rate is projected to increase rapidly, from 19.1% in 1988 to 24.8% by 1994. By holding total public investment to GDP ratios fixed, it is clear that the Tunisian scenario implies a large increase in private sector investment. From a level of 7.6% of GDP in 1988, private investment reaches 15.1% of GDP by 1994. This growth reflects the government' s strategy of increasing privatization. Productivity growth in 1989 is high at 2.3% indicating the recovery in agricultural output. For the remaining years productivity growth is in the range of 1% to 1.5% p.a. given the government's investment and GDP growth rates. Employment growth rates of 4% to 5% throughout the period are high enough to meet the government's objective of reducing Tunisia's unemployment rate as labor force growth is projected at about 3% p.a. 4.03 The government's conservative monetary strategy of providing stable prices and interest rates is reflected in scenario 1's domestic inflation and real interest rate trends. Domestic inflation remains between 5% and 8% with a declining time trend. The real private borrowing interest rate stays in the 2% to 3% range with only a gradually increasing trend. The gradually increasing ratio of base money to GDP indicates the planned-for stability of the monetary environment. 16 - 4.04 In the same period, Tunisia's foreign debt to GDP ratio falls from 65.4% in 1988 to 49.8% in 1994, reflecting the government's goal of reducing the country's dependence on foreign credit. In addition, the budget deficit is reduced substantially from over 4% of GDP to 1.9%, demonstrating the government's strategy of fiscal restraint. There is also a marked shift in the composition of financing of the deficit. While in 1989 domestic and foreign borrowings have almost equal shares in total financing (51% and 49%, respectively), the share of domestic borrowing increases to about 57% in 1990, to 65% in 1991 and to 80% in 1992 (see table 2). As noted above, the deficit's fall and the government's switch to domestic finance are key elements in the government's twin goals of reducing Tunisia's dependence on foreign credit while avoiding a crowding out of private investors in the domestic credit market. 4.05 These results confirm that the Tunisian monetary and fiscal strategies are consistent with their overall macro objectives provided that: (i) the necessary increases in domestic savings and investment can be achieved, (ii) the productivity growth does not fall short of 1-1.5% p.a., and (iii) the necessary cuts to reduce the budget deficits to target levels can be realized. The issue of productivity growth is not addressed further here. The following sections discuss the feasibility of the required budgetary cuts and the impact of larger deficits on domestic savings and investment. W1 These figures include IMF and short-term debt. - 17 * The Feasibility of the Budget Deficit Targets: 4.06 Most of the deficit reduction is to take place in 1990 and 1991 as the deficit declines to 3.4% and 2.4% of GDP, respectively. The feasibility of these targets is analyzed by decomposing budgetary revenues and expenditures, using the government budget module of the flow of funds (see table 2). As a result of recent, revenue-neutral tax reforms which aim at reducing tax rates and widening the tax base, real fiscal revenue is projected to grow at the rate of real GDP. However, non-fiscal revenues comprising mainly oil revenues are projected to fall in real terms, principally due to the decline in oil production and exports. The result is a projected fall of total government revenue as a percent of GDP from 28.8% in 1988 to 23.3% by 1994. This revenue profile, together with the projected profile of government interest payments for the period, implies substantial real cuts in net-of-interest expenditure. These cuts are concentrated in the years 1990 and 1991, where real net-of-interest expenditure is projected to fall by 6.7% and 3.1% respectively. Although the government does not provide a detailed breakdown of projected expenditure, it is possible to analyze the implications of these cuts in net-of-interest expenditure for any one expenditure category by making assumptions about the growth of the other categories. Given the conservative assumptions made here: for real growth of government investment (1% in 1990 and 1991; 1.5% thereafter), the government wage bill (2% growth in 1990 and 1991; 3% growth thereafter) and government consumption (no real growth in 1990-91 and 1% real growth thereafter), the projected real drop in net-of-interest expenditure translates into substantial real cuts of 25% in 1990 and 17% in 1991 in residual expenditure. - 18 - 4.07 Residual expenditure consists of current and capital (non-price) subsidies to public enterprises,1W transfers to local administration and households. Historically, the subsidies and transfers to public enterprises have been the largest category, followed by resources for local administrations. Since real cuts in resources for local administration are rather unlikely, public enterprise subsidies/transfers would have to be reduced even more in real terms, to meet the deficit target for these years.1V Moreover, these cuts must come immediately after the projected real cut of nearly 10% in the same category of expenditures in 1989. In the midst of public enterprise restructuring and privatization, this implies difficult choices for the Tunisian authorities. 4.08 After substantial real cuts in 1990-91, government net-of-interest expenditures are projected to grow thereafter at only 2-3% per year. Given projected revenues, this results in a gradual decline in government expenditure and the budget deficit as shares of GDP through 1994. An examination of budget deficit targets and the expected t'rend in government interest payments reveals that, after 1989, real interest peyments are expected to exceed the real budget deficit by large margins. This implies that the Tunisian fiscal strategy necessitates a primary surplus for the period 1989-94. 4.09 This analysis strongly suggests that the Tunisian deficit targets based on sharp real reductions of expenditures are very optimistic. Under more realistic assumptions for residual expenditures, the budget deficit increases IV These do not include price subsidies as they are netted out of indirect taxes. IV For simplicity, in scenario 1 all residual categories are cut by the same percentage. - 19 - considerably. To illustrate this point, Graph 1, which is derived from budget simulations for 1990, depicts the relationship between the real rate of growth in residual expenditures and the budget deficit as a percent of GDP. As can be seen from this comparative static analysis, in the region of interest, 1 percentage point higher real growth in residual expenditures in 1990 leads to an approximate 0.08 percentage point increase in the deficit/GDP. 4.10 The analysis also shows that macro targets in the Tunisian scenario are highly sensitive to the budget deficit in the short-term. Graph 2 illustrates the relationship between the deficit and private investment in 1990. Assuming that the increase in the deficit over and above the 1990 target is financed by additional domestic borrowing without monetary accommodation, the graph shows that, in the neighborhood of a 3% deficit/GDP ratio, a 1 percentage point increase in the deficit/GDP ratio results in an approximate 8.6% squeeze on private investment due to crowding out. Since it is quite likely that the budget deficits will also be higher than targeted beyond 1990, the following section discusses the medium-term impact of financing the additional deficit. Residual Expenditure and the Deficit 1990 Budget Deficit to GDP Ratio 0.055 0.04875 . 0.0425 0.03625 . 0.03 -0.25 -%0.170825 -0.09165 -0.012475 0.0;67 Real Rate of Growth of Residual Expenditure a deficit to GDP The Crowding Out of Private Investment 1990 Private Investment in 1988 Tunsilan Dinars Billions 1.5 1.0- 0.5- 0.0 0.025 0.0325 0.04 0.0475 0.055 udget Deficit to GDP Ratio o pvt inv - 22 - V. FINANCING A HIGHER DEFICIT: POLICY SINULATIONS Scenario 2: Domestic Borrowing without a Change in Monetary Poliev: 5.01 In order to better evaluate the significance of the budget deficit targets in preserving the overall consistency of Scenario 1, an alternative scenario, Senario 2, has been constructed. This scenario assumes that the required cuts for 1990 and 1991 cannot be realized, but that at best, the residual expenditures can be kept constant in real terms. Graph 3 shows the growth rate of real residual expenditure for each of the scenarios. By not imposing these cuts, each category of residual expenditure--current and capital subsidies to public enterprises and transfers to local administration and households--will be kept at a higher level than in scenario 1. 5.02 Of course, the macroeconomic impact of higher budgetary expenditures depends critically on what the expenditures are for. In scenario 2, we specifically assume that additional capital subsidies to public enterprises are spent on additional public enterprise investment while operational subsidies are allocated to wage increases. Local government is assumed to spend increases in transfer payments on consumption of goods while increases in household income through higher transfers and wage payments leads to increased household consumption. 5.03 Apart from the increases in residual expendicure and their assumed uses, the closure of scenario 2 differs from that of scenario 1 in two important ways. First, households' marginal propensity to consume is fixed at the levels given by scenario 1, and in turn total investment becomes endogenous. Second, productivity growth is set to scenario 1 values; GDP growth thereby becomes a The Growth Rate of Residual Expenditure Percentage Rate 10 5- S.... ..................... . . -10 I 4-15 -20- -25 - . 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Time scenario 1 .............. scenario 2 and 3 * 24 - function of investment. In the new scenario, the budget deficit increase is financed entirely by domestic borrowing in the domestic credit market. The fiscal expansion is not accompanied by a change in monetary policy. 5.04 At the analytical level, the effects of the fiscal expansion in scenario 2 are easily understood. In the first year of the expansion output remains fixed at the scenario 1 level. Relative to scenario 1, the increases in household and local administration consumption induced by the larger operating subsides reduce aggregate savings. As noted previously, in the domestic credit market, the financing of public credit needs is met first. Private credit demand must adjust to the residual credit supply. Increased public enterprise investment resulting from the larger capital subsidies in scenario 2 further reduces the residual savings available for private investment. The real interest rate, therefore, must increase to equilibrate private credit demand with the reduced residual credit supply. This crowding out of investment leads to a fall in output, relative to scenario 1, in following years. Essentially the entire adjustment takes place through the credit market. The aggregate demand curve does not shift out. Consequently, no price adjustment occurs.1V IV The increase in real interest rates will induce a small portfolio shift away from money towards deposits. In order to maintain the price level, the central bank will have to accommodate this shift by printing slightly less money this period. Note that, despite the central bank accommodation, a slight increase, relative to scenario 1, in the price level over time is observed. Net exports (EX) are a decreasing function of output and an increasing function of the real exchange rate. The relative fall in output over time is offset by a relative appreciation of the real exchange rate to maintain NX constant. This appreciation is accomplished through a slight relative increase in the price level over time. * 25 - 5.05 Tables 3 and 4 respectively present macroeconomic indicators and budget projections for scenario 2. The results indicate that the increase in the deficit in scenario 2 has adverse effects on growth, real interest rates, and private investment. Graphs 4-9 compare trends in important macro indicators for the two scenarios. As depicted in Graph 4, in scenario 2 the government budget deficit to GDP ratio climbs to the 5% level and stays there rather than falling under the 2% level as in the Tunisian scenario. Increases in the deficit are due to higher expenditures as assumed in the scenario. But they are also partly due to higher interest payments resulting from higher government borrowing. The resulting crowding out of private investment in scenario 2 by increases in public enterprise investment and total consumption is shown in Graph 5. Graph 6 demonstrates the impact of this crowding out on GDP growth. After 1990, GDP growth in scenario 2 is persistently below that of scenario 1 although it does reach 5% by the end of the period. 5.06 Graph 7 depicts the impact of the failure to make the needed budget cuts on a key fiscal target, the central government's domestic debt to GDP ratio. Rather than declining slightly as in scenario 1, the debt to GDP ratio climbs steadily, reaching the 30% level by 1994. Most importantly, in scenario 2 the ratio shows no sign of leveling off. Although by 1994 the government's domestic indebtedness remains reasonable, failure of the debt to GDP ratio to level off is worrisome, indicating that deficit reduction measures, if not undertaken in 1990 and 1991, are essential at some point in the near future. 5.07 Graph 8 shows a growing real interest rate gap between the two scenarios. This growing gap indicates a deviation in scenario 2 from the government's monetary policy goals of a stabilized real interest rate. Graph 8 - 26 - 27 JU 19891 Table 3 TuistAs NELCTED INDICATRS Scenario 2 (ligher Budget Deficit) am 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Inflation (CPI) 6.4% 7.6% 7.12 7.9X 7.02 6.2% 6.3% 5.3% 5.0% Inflation (®P deflator) 3.3% 7.6% 6.3% 8.4 7.02 5.92 5.9% 5.1% 4.7% CDP Grouth Rote -1.6% 5.8% 1.5% 5.12 4.1% 3.9% 4.5% 4.6S 5.0% Total Consumption Grouth nate 0.6% 1.42 1.4% 4.4% 3.8% 2.42 2.8% 3.4% 3.1% 00D/DP 67.1% 70.6% 65.4% 65.8Z 62.4% 59.9% 56.42 53.4% 50.6% National savinggDP 15.5% 19.9% 19.32 20.5% 20.3% 21.3% 22.3% 22.9% 23.9% Gross Investment/oP 23.5% 20.9% 19.1% 22.0% 22.72 23.5% 24.42 25.0% 25.9% Changes in StockI/P -0.5x 0.6% -1.5% 0.81 0.72 0.6% 0.7% 0.5 0.5% Public Investut/GDP 3/ 13.5% 11.32 11.5% 11.5% 13.1% 13.8 13.8 13.7% 13.81 Privat@ Invostment/GOP 10.5% 9.02 9.1% 9.7% 8.9 9.02 9.9% 10.82 11.52 Ratio of Pkb/Prv Investment 128.1% 125.5% 125.7% 118.35 146.2X 153.2% 139.0 127.3% 119.4% Governmfnt Revenuas/DP 31.22 28.7X 28.82 28.5% 26.8% 25.6% 25.1% 24.22 23.7% Governmnt Expnditures/®P 4/ 36.4% 31.6% 33.22 32.42 31.82 30.9% 29.9% 29.22 28.9% Dof (-) or SurpLus (+/DP 4/ •5.3 .2.8« -4.42 .3.9% .5.02 -5.3Z .4.9% -5.0% -5.1% Exports/GDP 30.82 35.02 42.2X 41.12 41.02 41.02 40.8 40.82 40.82 Iports/®P 38.02 36.2% 42.1 43.0% 43.4% 43.21 42.9% 42.8% 42.6% Resource Gap/UP -7.32 -1.2% 0.1% -1.9% -2.4% -2.22 -2.25 -2.1% -1.82 Current Accoumt/®P -8.0% -1.02 0.22 -1.5% .2.4% -2.1% -2.1% -2.1% -1.9% Change in Inter. Reserves in U# -241.9 115.8 348.5 86.0 78.9 157.1 90.3 64.6 193.9 Gross Res as Konth of IMPGFSIFS 8) /5 1.3 2.1 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 Net Reserves as Nonth of IMPMNF8 16 0.2 0.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.4 Dase Noney/OP 10.6% 10.12 9.9% 9.9% 10.3% 10.4% 10.7% 11.0% 11.2% M2/®P 51.7% 51.9% 53.02 53.02 54.1% 55.4% 56.5% 57.7% 58.9% Total Enterprise Pro~lstivity 0.862 0.882 0.896 0.906 0.917 0.927 0.936 Grouth 2.4% 1.6% 1.1% 1.25 1.1% 1.02 Total Employmnt 1560 1625 1669 1761.3 1836.7 1903.7 1981.9 2065.3 2157.7 Grouth 4.2% 2.7% 5.5% 4.32 3.6% 4.1% 4.2& 4.5% No efin =~ xchange Rte (UD 8) 0.794 0.829 0.860 0.930 0.958 0.987 1.006 1.027 1.037 Trade-Weighted Real Exchange Rte 0.867 0.952 1.001 0.997 0.996 0.994 0.991 0.990 0.988 Nominal Pvt Borrouing Intorest Rata 9.2Z 9.4% 9.4% 10.7Z 10.4% 9.7% 10.1% 9.3% 9.1% Rest Pvt Borrowing Interest Rite 2.7X 1.6S 2.12 2.6% 3.1% 3.3% 3.6% 3.7% 3.9% 3/ Public Adinistration and Public Enterprise 4/ Nt of Amortiastion. 5/ Central k only 6/ Central Bank and Financial Institutiono - 27 - 7 Jul 1989 1 Table 4 WB Budget Projections for Tunisia (ret quentities in 1988 million dinurs) (growth rate* in percent) Scenario 2 <Migher Budget Deficit) n 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1. Ret det FIcaG Revenuas 1589.5 1516.4 1535.6 1552.4 1615.7 1689.8 1792.2 1893.0 2003.5 Grouth in Rent Not fiscal Revenus -4.6 1.3 1.1 4.1 4.6 6.1 5.6 5.8 Real Direct Taxes and Others 520.0 440.7 413.6 393.4 411.5 419.3 434.0 454.4 468.5 Grouth in Ret 0. Tma and others .15.3 -6.1 .4.9 4.6 1.9 3.5 4.7 3.1 Reat lgt Indirect Tams 1069.5 107.7 1122.0 1159.1 1206.3 1270.6 1358.3 1438.6 1535.0 Grouth In Ret eot Indirect Txe 0.6 4.3 3.3 3.9 5.5 6.9 5.9 6.7 2. Ret #et Non-FiWcal Revues 652.1 699.4 729.6 788.7 654.6 563.0 546.1 472.5 416.3 Grouth in Rel Not Nun.Fiscal Rev 7.2 4.3 8.1 -17.0 .14.0 -3.0 -13.5 -11.9 Reat 01 t Revenuso 357.8 374.5 403.0 365.1 338.1 312.8 297.1 226.1 174.6 Gro~th in Roeat 011 Revenms 4.7 7.6 -9.4 -7.4 -7.5 .5.0 -23.9 -22.8 Ret Other Non-fiscel Revenums 294.3 324.9 326.6 423.6 316.5 250.2 249.0 246.3 241.7 Grouth in Ret Other HF Rev~ns 10.4 0.5 29.7 -25.3 -20.9 -0.5 -1.1 .1.9 3. Total Ret Net Rovnues (1+2) 2241.7 2215.8 2265.2 2341.2 2270.4 2252.8 2338.4 2365.4 2419.8 Grouth in Rel( Net Revu~s -1.2 2.2 3.4 .3.0 -0.8 3.8 1.2 2.3 4. Real Total Net Expmnsas 2663.7 2457.0 2642.2 2697.3 2741.2 2770.5 2839.6 28M6.8 2996.2 arouth in Total Not Expnses -7.8 7.5 2.1 1.6 1.1 2.5 2.0 3.4 5. Roeat Interest Payants 216.4 247.7 251.0 277.3 297.9 303.5 319.4 332.5 351.3 6. Roet Total Exp Net of Interest (4.5) 2447.3 2209.4 2391.2 2420.0 2443.3 2467.0 2520.1 2564.3 2644.9 Grouth In Totat Rent Expunses Not .9.7 8.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 2.2 1.8 3.1 7. Reat Govt Investmunt 343.7 287.2 346.5 355.9 359.4 363.0 368.5 374.1 379.7 Grouth in Rel Govt Investumnt -16.4 20.6 2.7 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 8. Roet Govt salaries 889.1 888.9 905.0 980.3 999.9 1019.9 1050.7 1082.4 1115.2 Grouth in Real Govt Salerias 0.0 1.8 8.3 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 9. Reat Govt Consuwption 321.7 333.5 320.5 342.6 342.6 342.6 346.1 349.6 353.1 Groth in Real Govt Conution 3.7 -3.9 6.9 -0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 10. Real Total Residual Exp <6-7-8-9) 892.8 699.7 819.2 741.2 741.3 741.5 754.8 758.2 797.0 Groth in Rel( Residuet Expnses -21.6 17.1 -9.5 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.4 5.1 11. Real NOt Deficit (4-3) 422.1 241.3 377.0 356.2 470.8 517.7 501.2 531.4 576.4 Ret Not Foreign Borroutng 298.4 113.5 185.4 171.6 120.5 53.0 38.7 43.5 55.7 Rest Not Domestic Borroming 123.7 127.7 191.6 184.6 350.3 464.7 462.6 487.8 520.7 OPP deflator 0.874 0.941 1.000 1.084 1.161 1.229 1.301 1.368 1.432 Central Government Budget Deficit to GDP Ratio Budget Deficit to GDP Ratio 0.075 0 050 ......... 0.025 - 0.000j 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Year scenario 1 .......... scenario 2 -..-------- scenario 3 Private Investment 1988 Tunisian Dinars Gross Pvt Capital Formation Billions 2.0 1.5- 1.0- 0.5- 1938 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Year scenario 1 .............. scenario 2 scenario 3 GDP Growth GDP Growth Rate 0.055 0.045 - 0.035 - 0.025 0.015 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Year ....... s1 . - cenario 2 ------.----- scenario 3 Central Government Domestic Debt to GDP Ratio Govt Domestic Debt to GDP Ratio 0.35 0.275 ..... . .. . .... 0.2 .... .. . 0.125 - 0.05 , 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Year - scenario I ......--..... sceio rio 2 ------..-- scenario 3 Real Pvt Borroving Interest Rate Rate 0.04 o.03 .. .... ........ 0.02 - 0.01 - 0.00 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Year scenario 1 ............ scenario 2 .------- scenario 3 Consumer Price Inflation Rate Inflation Rate 0 15 0.10- . . ....... ... 0.05 0.00 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Year scenario 1 .........-.--. scenario 2 ----------. - scenario 3 * 34 - therefore, demonstrates the interrelationship between fiscal and monetary strategies. Failure to meet fiscal policy goals has a negative impact on the authorities' ability to meet monetary policy targets. Graph 9 on the other hand shows that the other monetary policy goal of low and declining inflation is maintained as the central bank continues to target the nominal exchange rate. 5.08 Overall, then, scenario 2 demonstrates how important the required cuts in residual expenditure are to realizing the Tunisian authorities' economic goals. Under the assumptions outlined above, failure to make these cuts leads to a higher and growing budget deficit, crowding out of private investment, a drop in GDP growth (and therefore in employment growth), significant increases in government domestic indebtedness, and increasingly higher real interest rates. The question now arises: to what extent can these negative effects be alleviated by "accommodating" the fiscal expansion of scenario 2 through a less conservative monetary policy? Scenario 3: Higher Domestic Borrowing with Monetary Expansion: 5.09 Scenaoi_3 considers the case where the central bank attempts to accommodate the higher interest rates that result from increased deficit and government borrowing by increasing the money supply. Thus, the only difference between scenario 3 and scenario 2 is a higher increase in new base money, i.e. 25% more than the increase projected in scenario 2. The increase in new base money is injected into the economy through more credit made available for financial institutions. As explained above, to accomplish this accommodation without a change in targeted reserve levels, the central bank drops its target for nominal devaluation. In scenario 3, therefore, domestic inflation is no * 35 - longer pegged to foreign inflation but rather is determined by money market equilibrium while the nominal exchange rate is essentially floating. 5.10 A direct monetization of the additional deficit through central bank advances to the government is not considered here because this option has not been used in Tunisia in recent years as a policy instrument. Instead, the central bank generally uses the option of expanding credit to financial institutions. Despite the absence of direct central bank monetization of the deficit in scenario 3 the central bank can still channel resources to the government through central bank profits. In Tunisia, central bank profits are transferred by law to the government. These profits are treated as government revenue. Central bank profits consist of interest paid on central bank credit to financial institutions and central bank net foreign assets plus valuation changes on net foreign assets less operating costs. The inclusion of valuation changes of net foreign assets due to depreciation of the Tunisian Dinar in central bank profits implies that the central government dQes receive monetization revenues. These revenues, however, do not finance the deficit as defined by the Tunisians but, because they are classified as revenue, actually reduce the deficit directly. 5.11 Tables 5 and 6 detail respectively the projections for selected macroeconomic indicators and the government deficit obtained from scenario 3. The main differences between scenario 3 and the previous scenarios are portrayed in graphs 3-9. As shown in graph 3, the real growth in residual government expenditure is the same in scenarios 2 and 3 as implied above. Graph 9 marks perhaps the most important difference from scenario 2: the rate of inflation. The Central Bank's attempt to reduce the crowding out in the domestic credit market by increasing money supply results in a significant increase in inflation, - 36 - particularly in 1990 where it increases from 7% in scenario 2 to about 11% in scenario 3. The inflation rate remains at a higher level throughout the period despite a gradual decline after 1992. This rise in inflation shows clearly that, under the assumptions of scenario 3, monetary accommodation cannot be achieved without sacrificing a key goal of monetary policy: stable prices. 5.12 Graph 4 shows that the monetary expansion helps reduce the government budget deficit. This is accomplished through two means. First, central bank profits are higher as the increased inflation leads to a greater devaluation which raises the capital gains on central bank net foreign assets. Second, government real interest payments are lower as the real interest rate on government debt falls.1V Graph 7 demonstrates that monetary expansion helps alleviate another fiscal problem: the central government domestic debt to GDP ratio. Again, there are two means. First, the lover deficit implies less borrowing. Second, higher inflation erodes the real value of government domestic debt. 5.13 Turning to the crowding out problem, Graph 5 indicates that the monetary expansion is almost completely ineffective in accommodating the increased public borrowing.101 This ineffectiveness is in turn reflected in a failure to improve either GDP growth (graph 6) or real private interest rate J3 We assume throughout a constant time profile for the nominal interest rates on the various types of government domestic debt. See tables 1, 3, and 5. Private investment is very slightly higher in scenario 3. This is due to a drop in household consumption caused by a drop in household income. The drop in household income is in turn caused by lower real government domestic interest payments which show up in household income either directly or through financial institution profits paid to households. - 37 - 27 Jun 1989 1 Table S TUNISIA: SELECTED INDICATORS Scenario 3 (Higher Budget Deficit with onetary Accomodation) SNAME 1986 196W 1965 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Inflation (CPI) 6.4% 7.6% 7.IZ 7.92 11.72 8.7% 9.0 7.5% 6.91 Inflation COP def lator) 3.3% 7.6% 6.32 8.4% 11.62 8.42 6.d2 7.32 6.62 GP Growth Rate -1.62 5.8 1.52 5.12 4.1% 3.92 4.5% 4.6Z 5.02 Total Consumption Growth Rate 0.6 1.4% 1.42 4.42 3. 2.4% 2.80 3.5% 3.22 DWfOP 67.1% 70.6% 65.42 65.8% 62.42 59.91 - 56.42 53.42 50.61 National Savinge/P 15.52 19.95 19.3% 20.52 20.4% 21.42 22.42 23.0Z 44.0% Gross avestmant/P 23.52 20.92 19.1% 22.02 22.8 23.5% 24.52 25.12 26.02 Changes in Stock/GDP *0.5% 0.62 *1.52 0.8 0.J 0.6 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% Pubtic Investmnt/DP 3/ 13.5% 11.3% 11.52 11.52 13.12 13.8 13.8 13.72 13.8 Privte Investmnt/QP 10.52 9.02 9.12 9.72 9.02 9.12 10.02 10.92 11.J Ratio of Pu/Prv Investment 128.12 125.52 125.7 118.25 145.52 152.22 137.82 126.X5 118.12 Goverment Revenues/UP 31.22 28.72 28.8 28.5% 27.02 25.62 25.22 24.42 23.62 Governmant Expanditures/OP 4/ 36.4% 31.62 33.22 32.42 31.72 30.8 29.62 29.12 28.72 Def (-) or Surplus )/GDP 4/ -5.32 *2.8 *4.42 *3.9% -4.72 *S.12 -4.6% *4.7 *4.92 Exports/OP 30.8 35.02 42.22 41.1% 41.02 41.02 40.62 40.8 40.8 laports/P 38.02 36.22 42.12 43.02 43.42 43.22 43.02 42.9% 42.6 Resource Gap/UP -7.32 *1.21 0.12 -1.92 *2.4% *2.22 *2.25 -2.12 -1.82 Current Account/QDP -8.02 -1.02 0.22 *1.52 -2.42 -2.1% *2.12 "2.12 *1.92 Change in Inter. Reserves in US$ -241.9 115.8 348.5 86.0 78.9* 157.1 90.3 64.6 193.9 Gross Res as Month of INPGNFS(IFS 8) /5 1.3 2.1 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 Net Reserves as Month of IMPGUFS /6 0.2 0.5 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.7 Base Money/UP 10.62 10.1% 9.92 9.9 10.22 10.32 10.52 10.8 11.02 "2/GP 51.72 51.9 53.02 53.02 53.62 $4.7 55.61 56.61 57.61 Total Enterprise Productivity 0.862 0.882 0.896 0.906 0.917 0.927 0.936 Growth 2.42 1.62 1.12 1.22 1.i 1.02 Total Employment 1560 1625 1669 1761.3 1836.7 1903.9 1962.6 2066.5 2159.? Growth 4.2% 2.72 5.52 4.32 3.7% 4.12 4.22 4.5 Nominal Exchange Rate (US 8) 0.794 0.829 0.860 0.930 1.000 1.055 1.103 1.149 1.181 Trada-eighted Reast Exchange Rate 0.867 0.952 1.001 0.997 0.996 0.995 0.991 0.990 0.989 Nominal Pvt Borrowing Interest Rate * 9.22 9.4% 9.42 10.72 15.62 12.52 13.12 11.72 11.1% Reat Pvt Borrowing Interest Rate 2.7% 1.6 2.12 2.61 3.4% 3.5 3.72 3.92 4.02 3/ Public Administration and Public Enterprise 4/ Net of Amortization. S/ Central Bank enly 6/ Central Bank and Financial Institutions - 38 - 7 Jul 199 1 Table 6 wo Oudget Projections for Tunjsjö (rat quentities In 1988 itton dinea) cgroth rates n percent) Scenario 3 (Righer 8ud8ot Deficit with Nonhtary Accoeudtion> Wnen9 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1. Roat Net Feca8 Revenuas 1589.5 1516.4 1535.6 1552.4 1615.7 1689.7 1792.0 1892.7 2003.1 orouth In Real Net Fiscal Roevens -4.6 1.3 1.1 4.1 4.6 6.1 5.6 5.8 Ret Direct Tae and Otherm 520.0 444.7 413.9 393.4 411.5 419.3 433.9 454.4 468.4 Grouth in Reat 0. Txes and Others -15.3 -6.1 -4.9 4.6 1.9 3.5 4.7 3.1 Reat #et Indirect Tue 1069.5 105.7 1122.0 1159.1 1204.3 1270.5 13$8.1 1438.4 1534.7 Growth In Rest #et Indirect Taxes 0.6 4.3 3.3 3.9 5.5 6.9 5.9 6.7 2. Rest det Non-Fiscal Rovenus 652.1 699.4 729.6 788.9 676.5 575.4 561.9 485.7 427.3 Grouth ia Rest Not Non-Fical Rev 7.2 4.3 8.1 -14.2 -14.9 .2.3 -13.6 -12.0 Reat tt Revenes 357.8 j74.5 403.0 365.1 338.1 312.7 297.1 226.1 174.6 Grouth In Rat t 01 vRues 4.7 7.6 -9.4 -7.4 -7.5 .5.0 -23.9 -22.8 Roat Other Non-Flscal Rovenues 294.3 324.9 326.6 423.7 338.4 262.7 264.8 259.6 252.7 Grouth In Rea& other UF Rovenues 10.4 0.5 29.7 -20.1 -22.4 0.8 -2.0 -2.6 3. Total Ret Net Revenu s (1+2) 2241.7 2215.8 2265.2 2341.3 2292.2 2265.1 2353.9 2378.5 2430.3 Grouth In Rnt Net Revuas -1.2 2.2 3.4 -2.1 -1.2 3.9 1.0 2.2 4. Rest Total Not Expenses 26653.7 2457.0 2642.2 2697.3 2737.3 2763.2 2828.8 2883.3 2979.0 Groth in Rel& Net Exponses -7.8 7.5 2.1 1.5 0.9 2.4 1.9 3.3 5. Real Interest Pants 216.4 247.7 251.0 277.3 294.1 296.3 308.9 319.3 334.7 6. Reat Total Exp Net of Interet (4.5) 2447.3 2209.4 2391.2 2420.0 2443.2 2466.8 2519.9 2564.0 2644.3 Grouth in Total Real Expanses Nol -9.7 • 8.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 2.1 1.8 3.1 7. Real Govt Investemt 343.7 287.2 346.5 355.9 359.4 363.0 368.4 374.0 379.6 Grouth In Real Govt Investment -16.4 20.6 2.7 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 8. Reat Govt Salerie 889.1 888.9 905.0 960.4 1000.0 1020.0 1050.8 1082.6 1115.2 Grouth In Rest evt Salarics 0.0 1.8 8.3 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 9. Reat Govt Consu~ption 321.7 333.5 320.5 342.6 342.6 342.6 346.0 349.5 353.0 Grouth in Rel Govt Con~umption 3.7 -3.9 6.9 -0.0 -0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 10. Ret Total Residul Exp (6.7-8-9) 882.8 699.7 819.2 741.1 741.1 741.2 754.6 757.9 796.5 Grouth in Roet Residual Expmnses -21.6 17.1 -9.5 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.4 5.1 11. Ret Not Dficit (4-3) 422.1 241.3 377.0 356.0 445.1 498.0 474.9 504.8 548.7 Roat Not Foreign Borrowing 298.4 113.5 185.4 171.6 120.5 53.0 38.7 43.5 55.7 Ret Net Doetic Borroin8 123.7 127.7 191.6 184.5 324.7 445.1 436.2 461.3 492.9 GDP deflator 0.874 0.941 1.000 1.084 1.212 1.313 1.427 1.531 1.631 * 39 - trends (graph 8). In fact, the results show that the real private borrowing interest rate increases to a higher level than in scenario 21 5.14 How can we account for the behavior of real interest rates? The increase in real private interest rates, i.e., the private borrowing and deposit rates,1V results from the effects of inflation on the equilibrium in financial markets and adjustments in the assets held by households. It is important here to distinguish between stock effects and flow effects. Essentially, real household income is equal in scenarios 2 and 3. Therefore, real household savings are equal. Starting from the equilibrium of scenario 2, an increase in inflation leads to a readjustment of household portfolio holdings among three assets, money, equity, and time deposits. As noted previously, households allocate their wealth among assets based on their relative real rates of return. The second element determining the portfolio allocation is the risk minimizing behavior. The portfolio balance equation is specified such that, rather than holding all wealth in one asset, households distribute the wealth among assets as close to the initial composition as changes in the relative rates of return would allow. 5.15 Higher inflation implies an erosion of real money holdings and time deposits while the real value of equity holdings increases. Therefore, the portfolio becomes unbalanced. This imbalance causes a reallocation of savings away from new equity towards new time deposits and money in order to restore the portfolio stock equilibrium. This reallocation occurs despite the increase in the relative return on equity because, at the initial equilibrium point, the iv In the scenarios presented here, changes in the nominal private borrowing and deposit rates are linked through a unit elasticity. - 40 - distribution effect outweighs the substitution effect in portfolio determination. As a result of the reallocation, the total amount of new time deposits should increase. As mentioned, the central bank uses the new money to finance an increase in its credit to financial institutions. Therefore, the total new credit available to finance investment increases. Why, then, doesn't the real interest rate fall? 5.16 The answer lies on the credit demand side. The reduction in new household equity holdings forces private enterprises to seek more credit from financial markets than before for the same level of investment. If there is no change in investment demand, this increased credit demand should exactly offset the increased supply and the central bank's intervention will be completely ineffective. Accordingly, the real interest rate would remain the same. Due to the cost structure of Tunisian private enterprise, however, producer price inflation rises faster than consumer price inflation and it is this effect which shifts the credit demand curve further out and leads to the increase in real interest rates above the levels of scenario 2.)1 5.17 Scenario 3 demonstrates, therefore, that while a monetary accommodation can alleviate the financing costs of a fiscal expansion through increases in inflation, under our assumptions it cannot reduce the fiscal IV The point is that, because there is no change in the level of private investment between scenarios 2 and 3, the real marginal cost of private capital must remain the same. The marginal cost of private capital is given by the real interest rate times the relative (to the producer) price of capital. In scenario 3 inflation causes the relative price of capital to fall. Therefore, the real interest rate must increase in order to restore the real marginal cost of capital to its scenario 2 level. - 41 - expansion's crowding out of private investment. Given our assumptions this is not a surprising result. For the accommodation to alleviate crowding out, it must lead somehow to an increase in real resources available for investment and not just a redistribution. Since we are postulating a fixed real wage, a fixed level of real foreign savings, a fixed reserve target, an essentially fixed level of real household income and no sensitivity of real household savings to inflation, there is no way for central bank intervention to free up resources for investment. Monetary expansion simply translates into inflation. Lest this result seem too stylized remember that for central bank intervention to work, one of the just-mentioned conditions must be shown not to hold. - 42 - VI. CONCLUSIONS: 6.01 The above analysis provides important insights on the medium-term macroeconomic issues for Tunisia and reviews the macro policy options. 6.02 The analysis establishes that the medium-term scenario prepared by the Tunisian authorities is a consistent one whose objectives and various targets--for growth investment inflation, fiscal deficit and current account-- are compatible with each other. To achieve these objectives Tunisia has chosen a conservative monetary strategy and a prudent fiscal strategy whereby the deficit is reduced substantially. The analysis also shows that Tunisia has to make tough choices in order to pursue these strategies and realize this scenario. The Tunisian scenario budget deficit targets, though consistent with the overall strategy, may not be feasible since they require rather substantial real cuts in expenditures, particularly in those allocated for public enterprises as transfer and subsidies. The simulations carried out indicate that if these cuts cannot be realized budget deficits would increase sharply for the whole period. 6.03 The Tunisian strategy also proves to be highly sensitive to changes in the budget deficit: Excluding additional foreign borrowing to finance the deficit as an option and assuming that all additional deficit is financed by domestic borrowing, results obtained from alternative scenarios presented in the paper suggest that deficits in the order of 5% of GDP are undesirable in the medium-term. Relative to the government's scenario, growth rates drop continuously, as do pri4ate investment and consumption, while real interest rates go up as the government crowds out domestic credit markets. Consequently, the government's domestic debt to GDP ratio shows a steep upward trend. - 43 - 6.04 However, if fiscal expansion is also accompanied by monetary expansion with the intention of accommodating real interest rates, the situation only worsens. Contrary to what one might expect, in addition to the increase in inflation, real interest rates go up also while the deficit improves only marginally. Thus, this policy combination produces less favorable results as compared to fiscal expansion combined with prudent monetary policy as in scenario 2. 6.05 Since fiscal expansion by itself also creates many undesirable effects on the economy, the most reasonable strategy for Tunisia might be to try to control budgetary expenditures and remain as close as possible to scenario 1. If real cuts planned for 1990-91 are not possible they could aim at smaller real cuts over a more expanded period of time, i.e. between 1990-94. 44 - VII. REFERENCES Anand, R. and S. van Wijnbergen (1987), "Inflation and the Financing of Government Expenditure in Turkey: An Introductory Analysis" (preliminary draft), World Bank Nimeo. Banque Centrale de Tunisie, Rapport Annuel, Various Editions. Banque Centrale do Tunisie, Statistiques Financibres, Various Editions. Banque Centrale do Tunisie, Various Documents. de Melo, M., M. Leduc and S. Razmara (1989), "A Policy Model for Tunisia with Real and Financial Flows", PPR Working Paper No. 157. Deaton, A. and J. Muellbauer (1980), Economics and Consumer Behavior, Cambridge University Press. Dervis, K., J. De Melo and S. Robinson (1982), General Equilibrium Models for Development Policy, Cambridge University Press. Dornbusch, R. (1980), Open Economy Macroeconomics, Basic Books. Felderer, B. and S. Homberg (1987), Macroeconomics and New Macroeconomics, Springer-Verlag. Gray, C., J. Parks, and B. Ziller (1989), "A Macroeconomic Framework for an Open Economy", EMENA Staff Working Paper. Institut National de la Statistique, Les Comptes de la Nation: Anndes 1983-4, R4publique Tunisienne, 1988. Kiguel, M. and N. Liviatan (1988), "Inflationary Rigidities and Stabilization Policies", PPR Working Paper. Ministbres des Finances, Rdpublique Tunisienne, Various Documents. Ministbre du Plan, Annexe Statistique au RaMDort sur le Budget Economique, Rdpublique Tunisienne, Various Editions. Ministbre du Plan, Rdpublique Tunisienne, Various Documents. Parks, J. (1988), "A One-Sector Tunisian Macroeconomic Framework", World Bank Mimeo. - 45 - Taylor, L. and J. Rosenweig (1984), "Devaluation, Capital Flows, and Crowding Out: A Computable General Equilibrium model with Portfolio Choice for Thailand*, MIT Mimeo. van Wijubergen, S., R. Anand and R. Rocha (1988), "Inflation, External Debt and Financial Sector Reform: A Quantitative Approach to Consistent Fiscal Policy", World Bank Mimeo. Varian, H. (1984), MicroeconoiLc Analvais 2nd Edition, Norton. World Bank (1988), "Report and Recommendation of the President-of the IBRD to the Executive Directors on a Proposed Structural Adjustment Loan to the Republic of Tunisia", World Bank. -46 VIII. TECHNICAL ANNEX The TunisLan Nacroframework Introduction: 8.01 This technical annex describes the macroeconomic framework developed for Tunisia. The framework is an analytical tool specifically designed to address the main economic issues facing Tunisia as outlined above. The framework's structure follows very closely that of the general macroeconomic framework developed by EM2CO staff and described in Gray, Parks, and Ziller (Gray et. al., 1989).n/ It is an extension of the one-sector Tunisian macroframework developed by EM2CO staff and described in Parks (Parks, 1988).AI The framework is calibrated on 1985 to 1988 flow of funds data developed by E92CO staff. 8.02 The following text is divided into four parts. The first section explains the differences between the general macroeconomic framework and the Tunisian implementation. The second section examines the connections between the Tunisian macroframework and the preceding work of de Melo, et. al. (de Melo et. al., 1989).1V The third section outlines the flow of funds module used to calibrate the framework. The fourth section describes the functioning of the framework's core elements. A detailed listing of the Tunisian macroframework's ill See, Gray, Parks, Ziller (1989), "A Macroeconomic Framework for an Open Economy", EMENA Staff Working Paper, for reference. IV See, Parks (1988), "A One-Sector Tunisian Macroeconomic Framework", World Bank Mimeo, for reference. IV See, de Melo, Leduc, and Razmara (1989), "A Policy Model for Tunisia with Real and Financial Flows", PPR Working Paper No. 157, for reference. - 47 - equations appears in an appendix. A familiarity with the three above-cited texts is assumed throughout. The General tMacroframework and Its Tunisian Im1ementation: 8.03 - The major focus of recent modelling efforts in EM2CO has been on integrating real with financial sectors. Towards this and the general macroframework of Gray, et. al. was developed with the range of Mahgreb countries in mind. No single country was selected out. This approach allowed development of the general framework to concentrate on the main issues involved in integrating financial and real sectors without having to address the specific details of a particular country. Nonetheless, the general framework was designed to easily incorporate such details at a later, country-specific implementation phase such as that described here for Tunisia. 8.04 The differences between the general macroeconomic framework of Gray, et. al. and the Tunisian implemeniation fall into two categories: changes in functional form and changes in the flow of funds. 8.05 There are two main changes in functional form. The first is a conversion of production functions from Cobb-Douglas specification to the more flexible Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) specification. This conversion involves changes to the within-period labor demand equations, the production equations, and the private investment demand equations. 8.06 The second major change in functional form involves the portfolio balance function. The portfolio balance function of the general macroframework (as well as the preceding work of Lance Taylor) suffers from three major - 48 - criticisms.1 First, the utility-maximizing derivation of asset demands is based on the introduction of nominal quantities (asset stocks) into the household utility function, thereby contradicting economic theory. Second, the maximization of wealth allocation is based on flows (returns to assets) rather than stocks (future value of assets). Third, no provision is made for the transactions demand for money, i.e. the portfolio balance depends only on total wealth and relative returns on assets; it does not depend explicitly on the level of economic activity or income. 8.07 These three criticisms are addro'zed in the Tunisian implementation described here. Real asset values replace nominal ones in the household utility function. This requires the use of real asset returns in the place of nominal ones. In addition, utility maximization is based on the expected future value of assets rather than their expected future return. In the utility function, this involves replacing the expected real rate of return (r,) of each asset k with one plus the expected real rate (l+rk). Finally, the transactions demand for money is introduced by adding the real growth rate of GDP to the real return on money (eqn 36). The resulting shadow return on money is used in the utility function. These revisions to the portfolio balance function affect the framework through the asset demand equations (eqns 38-41). 8.08 Changes in the flow of funds involve the division of firms into public and private enterprise. In addition, the accounts of the individual agents are revised and expanded to better reflect the.real-world of Tunisia. jV See Annex B of Gray, Parks, and Ziller (1989), op. cit., for reference. - 49 - Connections with other Tunisian Models: 8.09 This Tunisian implementation of the general macroframework borrows heavily from the institutional structure of the earlier model of do Melo, Leduc, and Razmara (de Melo, et. al., 1989) for Tunisia. Nevertheless there are significant differences in structure and concept. On the real side, the Tunisian macroframework has two sectors, distinguishing between public and private enterprise. Separating public from private enterprise allows one to model the differences between public and private investment as well as to model the complementarities between them. The de Melo model follows a different approach, breaking production down along traditional sectoral lines.W 8.10 On the financial side, the de Melo model operates on an LM curve. The introduction of an explicit portfolio balance function, as in this Tunisian macroframework, allows the modelling of more than two financial markets. Furthermore, the Tunisian macroframework's incorporation of a dynamic private investment function allows one to explore the dependence of private investment on macroeconomic conditions - whether in a rationed or free credit context. In addition, the framework described here breaks down the non-governmental sector into private firms and households, giving insights into thr important interactions between these two agents. Finally, the Tunisian macroframework, by accommodating equity investment, creates a more detailed flow of funds For examplie, the version of the de Melo model used for preparation of the Tunisian SAL President's Report has three real sectors (agriculture, energy, and others). See: "Tunisian SAL President's Report", World Bank, 1988. - 50 - accounting. The result is a complete breakdown between capital and current accounts for all macroeconomic agents. 8.11 The goal in implementing the macroframework for Tunisia has been to address a number of issues, specifically those arising from the interaction between the real and financial sectors of the economy, which were beyond the scope of previous models. In reaching this goal, we have attempted to build on the work of others in order to create a richer understanding the Tunisian macroeconomy. The Flow of Funds Module: 8.12 Appendix D contains a complete listing of the flow of funds module used to calibrate the framework along with a detailed description of the accounts. In total there are eight economic agents in the flow of funds: central bank, central government, other public (local and social security) administration, financial institutions, households, private enterprise, public enterprise, and the rest of the world. A national accounts table supplements the module. Stock and flow balances are maintained for each agent. Currently, stock balances cover the years 1985 to 1988, while flow balances cover the years 1986-1988. Flow balances are divided into current and capital accounts. 8.13 The flow of funds module runs in Javelin and is directly connected to the EM2CO Tunisian database. The module contains additional spreadsheets used to perform regression analysis and automatically communicate the calibration data to the macroframework. The framework itself runs under the General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS) developed at the World Bank. The projections of the framework are read automatically back into Javelin and presented in a flow of - 51 * funds format exactly comparable to that for the historical series. The historical and projected series are then combined in Javelin. Standard tables are then automatically produced from the combined results. The data flow described above is depicted in Chart 1.W1 8.14 The flow of funds accounts are designed to follow closely Tunisian institutional realities. Despite their seeming complexity, therefore, all the accounts can be updated easily from standard Tunisian sources. 8.15 The flow of funds is complemented by a detailed breakdown by economic classification of the government's budget for historical years. This breakdown is based on the Tunisian Ministry of Planning's (MOP) economic budget classification. This economic classification, which can considered as part of the Tunisian database, serves as a source of input data for the budget section of flow of funds. In addition, the flow of funds' financial institution section is constructed from a set of table containing detailed information for each of the four types of institutions which make up the financial system; deposit banks, development banks. the Centre d'Epargne National Tunisien (CENT), and the Centre des Chbques Postaux (CCP). Like the economic classification of the budget, this set of financial system tables forms an integral part of the database. A copy of the financial system tables and the economic classification of the budget for the years 1986-1988 are included in appendix B. 8.16 Analysis of budget deficit projections is aided by a detailed budget breakdown module which decomposes the macroframework's budget projection into its line items. This decomposition is compatible with the Tunisian Ministry of W As noted in Chart 1, at this point some of the data connections have yet to be automated. - 52 - CHART 1 Databas Debt Routine .................... Exogenous Variable File * NARK I . Flow of Funds.----- -- (historlcat) . c catib p*.R . & R - data bse Projections I i year 9 FILE bT Flow of Funds Flow of Funds (co~bined) (projections) STANDARD TABLES DATA FLOW FOR MARK I Data conection autoted Data connection not yot automsted - 53 - Planning's budget projections thereby facilitating comparison. Copies of the MOP's budget projections, which are the same as those of scenario 1, are included in appendix C. Expanded versions of the Selected Indicator Tables (tables 1, 3, and 5) and the Budget Projections Tables (tables 2, 4,- and 6) for the three scenarios presented in the main text are also included in appendix C. Functioning of the Tunisian Macroframework: 8.17 Description: The Tunisian macroframework actually consists of two logically separable components: the accounting framework and the model being implemented within the context of the accounting framework. The accounting framework (or 'framework' for short) itself is made up of two parts: the markets chosen and the agents involved in each market. The interactions between the various agents in each market make up the consistency framework upon which the macroframework is built. For the Tunisian framework, these interactions are embodied in the flow of funds. 8.18 The model, for its part, consists of the equations simulating the behavior of each agent. Many different sets of behavioral equations are conceivable. In a sense the implementation of a set of behavioral equations within a consistency framework constitutes the implementation of a model embedded within the context of a macroframework. In this way many models may be implemented within one macroframework. As designed, the Tunisian macroframework allows easy implementation of any number of 'models', or sets of behavioral equations. Taken together, an accounting framework and model can be thought of as an implementation of a macroframework. - 54 - 8.19 In standard macromodelling work, the distinction between *framework' and 'model' does not arise. Normally, the accounting framework is quite simple, consisting only of a few variables common to several behavioral equations in the model. The advantage of the macroframework is precisely in that it allows for the implementation of many models within the same consistent accounting framework. For example, econometrically estimated equations, if available, can be substituted for calibrated specifications. Such flexibility facilitates comparison between models and permits the use of the model most suited for a particular purpose and country--all the while maintaining the consistency so important for projections work. 8.20 Most standard macromodels strictly specify which variables are exogenous and which are endogenous. This approach limits the model's usefulness. The Tunisian macroframework, in contrast, is designed to allow the user to specify which variables are exogenous and which are endogenous, thereby greatly expanding the number of available policy experiments. In the Tunisian implementation, for example, the user can fix the real exchange rate and endogenize the resource gap or vice-versa. 8.21 In order to give the user maximum flexibility, the macroframework also makes no strict distinction between variables and parameters. This flexibility allows the user to check the reasonableness of certain macro targets. In the Tunisian framework, for example, ceteris paribus, one can fix GDP growth to target levels and see the productivity growth necessary to reach them. 8.22 In terms of "framework' and 'modelI, the Tunisian implementation has been built to mirror Tunisian social accounting realities and address the major economic issues in Tunisia today. To this end the Tunisian framework * 55 - incorporates the following ten markets: the external goods market, public and private production, the domestic labor market, public and private capital markets, the domestic and foreign credit markets, the domestic money markets, and the domestic direct investment (equity) market; in addition to the seven agents mentioned above. On the other hand, the Tunisian model or behavioral equations are based on relative price-based optimization behavior (Gray et. al, 1988). The equations are calibrated on 1986-1988 data, reflecting both the scarcity of good historical data as well as the judgement that the Tunisian structural adjustment program, begun in 1986, has significantly changed the economy, thereby reducing the usefulness of the past in projecting the future. 8.23 Qnerari2n:. The following paragraphs outline the operation of the Tunisian implementation, keeping in mind the differences just outlined between the macroframework and an ordinary macromodel. The goal is to give the reader a sense of how the main macro variables are determined in the implementation. The point is not to explain in detail the closures for a particular scenario, because, as outlined above, the macroframework permits the closures to change from scenario to scenario. Note that designation of a variable as exogenous in the discussion below implies that it is held exogenous in each of the scenarios. 8.24 In contrast to the general macroframework, the Tunisian framework separates production into public and private enterprise, although the two sectors still produce the same good. In the Tunisian implementation private enterprise production is determined as in the general macroframework with fixed within- period capital stocks and labor demand a function of the producer real wage. Nominal wage dynamics are chosen to keep the within-period real producer wage constant. Employment in the public enterprise sector is exogenous. - 56 - Consequently, public enterprise profitability is endogenous. As overall firm employment is demand-determined, domestic output is therefore fixed independently of any price movements. Additionally, public capital is included as a third factor in the private enterprise production function to allow for the modelling of complementarity between public and private investment. Similarly, private capital is included as a third factor in the public enterprise production function, reflecting a symmetric form of complementarity. 8.25 Diagram 1 depicts operation of the external side.W Given a foreign debt-to-GDP target and a growth rate of GDP (g)W, net foreign borrowing is determined. Then, given the level of worker's remittances (wr, exogenous), foreign interest payments (exogenous), other net foreign payments (exogenous), and desired increases in central bank net foreign assets (set to keep a desired ratio of official reserves to imports), the resource gap is determined. Through the ArmingtonW assumption, both imports and exports are functions of the real exchange rate, though with differing sensitivities. The real exchange rate adjusts, therefore, to meet the given trade target. Then, given a level for the nominal exchange rate (e) and the foreign prices (p*), the domestic price level (p) is determined. Finally, given a lagged price level (po), the domestic inflation rate (r) is determined. Ni These diagrams should be read in the sense of "given this, then that*. They do not imply strict causality nor a distinction between endogenous and exogenous. The determinants of GDP growth in the Tunisian implementation ars depicted in diagram 2. K. Dervis, J. de Melo and S. Robinson, General Eguilibrium, Models for Development Policv. pp. 221-227. ~ 57 - DIAGRANS 1. 2 & 2 Foreign delta --- Debt to ---- GOP Capital ---> Resource --I> Productivity --- ----> Account ---> GAP -- P Increases --- Pi g ~ ~ a-- R -->e -- Po --->31- Old Govt. -- Capital Stock Interest ---> p* ---> Old Pub. Ent. ---> Other --- (1) Capital Stock Net Payments Old Pvt. Ent. ---> New Capital Stock CO UFA ---> Ig --- Initial Pvt.Entt.-) 11 Capital Stock Ipvt --- ---> Pvt. Ent. ---> e ---> Capital Gains (2) Pi --> Pvt. Ent. ---) Profits -- reqh Pi a Domestic Inflation Rate delta --- (Real Reture Ig a Govermnat Investment FI Profits --- on Domestic Ipub * Public lEt. Investment eo - Equity) Ipvt a Private et. tavestmeat Old stock of --- g a Real GDP Growth Rate Domestic Equity e a Nominal Exchange Rate (3) eq * Lagged Nominal Exchange Rate P1 --- P a Domestic Price Level P0 a Lagged Bomestic Price Level delta a Capital Depreciation Rate (1) External Sector pe a foreign Price Level (2) Determination of Real GOP Growth (g) WR a Net Worker's Remittances (3) Determination of Real Return on Domestic Equity (reqh) 82078 - 58 - DIAGRAM4 New C8 ---> NFA --- Total Change ---> in CS NFA Valuation Effect on --- New Ce ---> Old CB NFA Credit to FE Stock --- New Ca --- New Ce Assets Credit to Ne w -- > newase -->a pub. ent. New Ce -oney New Base Capital --- Money Stock --- N CS old Base **-> 1 (Supply) Credit to ---> Honey Stock Government New Base Money Stock -- (Deed) (4) (4) Central Bank Capital Balance (Beastic Honey Market) Pi a DOastic Inflation 82078 p.2 * 59 - 8.26 Diagram 4 presents the capital balance sheet of the central bank. As noted the central bank targets increases in net foreign assets to keep up with the growth of imports. Changes in the other assets of the central bank include: new cb credit to financial institutions (fi), new cb credit to public enterprise, and new cb credit to the government. Subtracting new cb capital from the total change in the asset side of the central bank's balance sheet gives the amount of new base money the central bank must issue. This implies a new stock supply of base money. Given that the stock of base money supplied by the central bank must equal the stock of base money demanded by banks and households, equilibrium in the money market determines the domestic inflation rate. Clearly, the inflation rate given by the money market must equal that given by the real exchange rate target. If not, the nominal exchange rate must adjust (as in the World Bank baseline scenario) or the central bank must adjust its supply of base money (as in the Tunisian baseline scenario). 8.27 As shown in diagram 5, domestic price inflation, in connection with the relative rate of return on other real assets and the growth rate of GDP, determines the change in stock demand for money assets through the household portfolio balance equation. The money market's stock equilibrium constraint ensures consistency between the central bank' s money growth rate and households' desire to hold the requisite money balances. Given an exogenous change in not foreign assets and an inflation-determined change in demand for base money, then, domestic liquidity injections by the central bank are constrained through the capital balance sheet identity. 8.28 Households receive income from labor and transfers, as well as yields on deposits and returns from investment. Household savings are determined as - 60 - a fixed share of income. Savings, together with capital gains on investment, are added to existing wealth. Required direct holdings of government debt by households are thin subtracted from the new wealth stock. The adjusted new wealth stock is then allocated over money, deposits, and equity depending on the real expected relative rate of return on these three assets. As in the general macroframework, all price expectations are modelled as static expectations. 8.29 Now, consider the domestic financial system, i.e., banks and specialized financial institutions. Table 7 contains the capital balance sheet for the financial institutions (few) as it appears in the flow of funds. The total increase in domestic credit available in any given year through the banking system is determined as follows: First, the "Total Change in Special Resources" is given by "Net Government Loans to Financial Institutions" (determined by the government's budget policy) plus "Financial Institution Net Foreign Borrowing* (exogenous). Second, the "Change in Deposits" is an output of the households' portfolio balance function. Similarly, "Households Investment in Financial Institutions" is a fixed share of total new household equity determined by the portfolio equation. Finally, "Net Central Bank Credit to Financial Institutions" is determined by central bank monetary policy as explained above. These four items give the total increase in fi liabilities. 8.30 To determine the actual increase in credit available, one must subtract the "Flow Change in Net Foreign Assets of Financial Institutions" -61 - Old Wealth ---> Stock Savings --- ---> New Wealth ---> Capital -- Stock - Adjusted New -- Gains Wealth Stock New Govt. ---> --- ew Deposit Capital Direct Borrowing ---> rt --- Stock Subsidies --- from Govt. --- ---> pi ---> ---> reqht --__Nw ---> Megw Domstic ro ---> Equity Stock Pig . reqhg ---> reqh ---> --- New Money -- g ---> Asset Stock Future Price ---> ---> New Base Expectations g0 --> New F1 Money Stock Reserve -- (dmnd) Stock (S) reqh a Lagged Expected Return on Domestic Equity g a Real GDP Growth go a Lagged GDP Growth reqh a Real Return on Domestic Equity (5) ousehold Portfolio Balance reqh9 a Expected Real Return on Domestic Equity rt = Expected Real Interest Rate rK v Lagged Expected Real Interest Rate Pio 9 a Lagged Expected Domestic Inflation pit a Expected Domestic inflation 82078 p.3 - 62 - Table 7 TUNISIA FLON OF FUND FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 888888883U88l8U8888888888883Zassagag2s 24 Nay 1989 1 VNANE 1986 1987 1988 e--------------------------------------------------------- CAPITAL ACCOUNTS SOURCES 476.400 491.400 433.600 TOTAL CHANGE IN SPECIAL RESOURCES 28.300 123.300 101.900 NET 6OY. LOANS TO FIN.INST. 37.826 148,987 133.772 FINANCIAL INST.NET FOREIGN BORR. + -9.526 -25.687 -31.872 CHANGE IN DEPOSITS 200.000 468.400 322.200 HOUSEHOLDS INVESTHENT IN FI 87.900 39.100 292.600 NET CENTRAL BANK CREDIT TO FIN.INST. 160.200 -139.400 -283.100 USES 476.400 491.400 433.600 GOVERNMENT NET 8ORR.FRON FIN.INST. 82.300 112.900 39.200 CHANGE IN Ft CREDIT TO ENTERPRISES 362.800 371.100 439.500 PUBLIC ENTERPRISES NET DOESTIC 8R. 108.000 31.000 39.000 PRIVATE ENTERPRISES NET DOMESTIC 80RR. 254.800 340.100 400.500 TOTAL CHANGE IN NFA FI 27.400 -19.500 2.700 FLOU CHANGE IN FI NFA 39.400 0.500 0.300 VALUATION EFFECT ON F! NFA -12.000 -20.000 2.400 CHANSE IN Ft DORESTIC RESERVES -8.100 6.900 -45.400 * 63 - (determined exogenously)m as well as the "Change in Financial Institution Domestic Reserves" (given by the change in deposits times the reserve requirement). Subtracting the government's domestic financing requirements (Government Net Borrowing from Financial Institutions) as well as those of public enterprise (Public Enterprise Net Domestic Borrowing) from the remainder gives total domestic credit available to the private sector as a residual (Private Enterprises Net Domestic Borrowing). Diagram 6 outlines the operation of the domestic credit market. 8.31 The government budget deficit is given through a detailed projection of government revenue and expenses (see appendix C). Tax revenue depends on direct and indirect tax rates set through calibration as well as the distribution of income among the various other agents. Central bank profits, which are considered as non-tax government revenue in Tunisia, depend on the interest rate charged on central bank credit; returns to, and gains from revaluation of, central bank net foreign assets; and the central bank's operating costs. Other non-tax revenues are set by item-by-item projections. Government consumption is set exogenously. Other current government expenses are set by detailed projections by category. 8.32 Government and public enterprise investment are given exogenously. These investments are financed to the extent possible by government and public enterprise savings as well as the foreign credit available to these two institutions. In addition, the government can borrow. directly from households. In table 7, the items: "Total Change in Net Foreign Assets of Financial Institutions" and "Valuation Effect on Financial Institution Net Foreign Assets", which affect stocks but not flows are given only for completeness. - 64 - DIAGRAM 6 New Deposit ---> Stock ---> New Deposits ---> Old Deposit --- Stock ---> New Credit --- New CS Credit---> Available to FI Government --- New F1 Equity---> Borrowing New FI Public Ent.---> Foreign ---> Borrowing Borrowing --- New Credit ---> New F! NFA ---> Available New F! Gvt. ---> to Pvt.9ft. Borrowing New FI ---> Reserves --- r Pi --- ---> Expectations -----------> Ipvt ---> - Pi:-- Pi* --- New Pvt. Ent. ---> for Domestic Foreign Borrowing Credit New Pvt. Ent. --- (6) Foreign Equity New Pvt. Ent. ---> Domestic Equity i a Domestic Nominal Interest Rate (6) Domestic Credit Market r a Domestic Real Interest Rate Pi a Domestic Inflation Rate Pie = World Inflation Rate Ipvt a Pvt. Ent. Investment 82075 p.4 - 65 - The level of this direct borrowing is exogenous, reflecting the government's choice of deficit financing strategy. Apart from these sources, the residual financing needs of government and public enterprise Wusr be met by domestic financial institutions. 8.33 As shown in diagram 6, the level of private enterprise investment is determined through a calculation of future profitability based on expectations of future prices. As in the general macroframework, all firm price expectations are equal to their household counterparts. As future profitability is sensitive to the real cost of capital, private investment demand declines with increases in the real private borrowing interest rate. Private investment is financed to the extent possible by available foreign credit and equity--both determined exogenously; as well as new domestic equity- -a function of household savings and portfolio balancing. The remainder of private investment is financed through the domestic credit market. Real interest rates adjust, therefore, to equate residual private investment demand with the available domestic credit supply. 8.34 Finally, operation of the domestic equity market is depicted in diagram 3. The real rate of return on private domestic equity is a function of the growth in real GDP, domestic price inflation, and movements in the exchange rate. All three of these variables are constrained to meet other conditions as noted above. The return on domestic private equity can therefore be thought of as a residual in this partial-equilibrium analysis. The macroeconomy is then closed and the Tunisian implementation has a solution. * 66 - 8.35 As far as the structures are compatible, these closures are consistent with the one-sector Tunisian macroframework previously developed by Parks as well as those used in the Tunisian macromodel of de Melo, Leduc, and Razmara. * 67 - APPENDIX A ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE SCENARIO 1 PROJECTIOS 1. All external variables save the trade deficit are projected exogenously. 2. Initial wages, prices, and household asset stocks are set to their end of last period values. 3. Portfolio balance parameters are adjusted to reflect portfolio composition at the end of last period. 4. Gross domestic investment is adjusted according to a trend consistent with the Tunisian government's projections, increasing rapidly in 1989 and slowly thereafter, 5. Beginning of period credit stocks are updated to their end of last period values. 6. Expected real and nominal rates of return on assets are set to their end of last period values. 7. Capital stocks are updated according to last period's gross real investment and a depreciation rate from de Melo et. al. 8. Overall GDP growth is exogenous, following Tunisian government projections. Productivity growth is therefore endogenous. See the detailed government budget projections in appendix C for further reference. - 68 - APPENDIX B ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET AND FINANCIAL SYSTEM TABLES 震閱細X』口開甲仰紅州開開必勾〔瀉1卹闕：寫讓魄論 -－一，庫‘,－一••－.．•勵’•．.．參．車•勵個•自．．•••用p喝．用爭個口－.&“。•．口．皓‘••．個鳥．自•••－．•一仰．••一鑰細•一•．。•••••，••．．一。•．奮一，．。，．一。劉．•．•．-.．•．&．•••••．．•．•■一•．.．翅．&．•‘•一•．.．•一••．•．口個•嗡勵•購唱•司••．••．•．•••．•一，•一，•．．•．。用•．．一•．一個．-－一 t&!L擊右‘•0擊，.tt觔t’弱擊6”幼零6’卹電常．t言C L.00寥露’忿tC煙跚實為胞戲斤認豳觔煙 9&tTg&0•．館0．辟藝’開需．韶訂6．你《C’言9零．•個細p開圈圍暉C必戲屆颼口中•劇翅開略 0’雪•常L•C鵠6．以審g”以認，．婦露t．館1奮‘儲t••t9！•，eL口01期略取n必煙：儲萬戲個即寫 ,‘言9•．縣：合遞當言．解1‘弱0’合觔e’藝常6’叮C．群煎潤1馴劉濾：綱紅朧劇即田 言’的電6’開常必合弓號•．館露：．。雲，擊”的C•．COCO’朋寥t&OTt個鑰n儲團圍頗盤中轉神甲n肱啊馴馮 C’參99‘叩必’奮•6&&0‘媚當‘令中O&Ltt&0露0’雊’7膩O，議n佻瀾（開劉聞暱U闐 C”言觔露，6電當．朧C，館L．《寥•’館0&T零《•館”認蠶丁n以場佻，酈轉間nq名配勵 9&Cot霎．加絮t．神常．鈴會．鈴C& 990’韶•”館0．婦‘們00啊〕的，．開寫奮n讓寫讓網區館面n肱 俗‘的•．討忿．0 0．神啄．09必’當，0.t‘右‘館L‘飩口口O萬霍謝膩認XS鉀 俗‘令館C&90令：．煙討6.6崤！&6認令．《L擊•．粤，t．戲Ce，寫g！綱U取奮訌口中啊，瞭』戲闖臨寫奮開D州q帖 0&C《to’幼絮觔．儲絮0.C01弓’館忿．的0.“•‘0,!&0擊肚座叫國悶舉目圈蹋1闔膩郡獻闕，以寫 0’•to&0必•．購O，鷓‘”•警L”•g俗．粤6杳館C’•飲騙州圓闖劇莽間劉遛宜蟹1州闖闖，功甚 O&1蓄忿0 .C館：．開絮0．舛t 0．館電O‘右ot奮‘“必‘婦擊’勰（’個刀闢二認口）馴個口黑綱群悶鄴啊，戡認 &”叩C.”戲C,.，•響0．購需，．為寫‘&00寥‘&t戲6&9,te’口抓’劍口細，個中X睡屆O個0刈濾閱切抑勻 0’霧08霧’O購暱．&90，必tg&1弱你‘0館•’必芥．’卹電6”言令C廳X劉鬥胞 C&C芻蓄t通O栽t右．館戲0．鬨魷•．t儲侈’6館C”個細•g&0舛曾．需《俗觔口悶卑神蒲瀉馴神盧憤切萬 ••．一•‘．••．．•司．•歸•口一•申••闖•．••．•．•••••••，••，•響．．一’．•．&.&．牌•．&.&‘個．婦．．。•． 0’韶俗言6••《粤露．帕tt 0．寫戲言，．關開•”n邊tL爭開藝T俗‘戲訂忿‘gT0tB閱助縱颼認1山口軍驪攔個閱頗O 奮’電ot擊．66必”tL•．！必弓’“右•露忿寥．gCt&CC•．CC卻口朧悶．徊騙緘潤纏’U蘿”訌小馴細綱購功 蘇’gT 0．戲0．魷0．魷•．右！0．魷0，弓t 0.0!6“翻中色佻開開跑纏印輝舉•間臨 電‘霹t 6．霧tt 9．歸，.ge擊．6L雷，t書寥．為！”常，L中6露仰中讓鱸颼，娥寫鎚•威瀾初田功，觀認 蠱‘此t霧．的t心．鑰實0.，觀零‘粤絮•．購常’辟0．言觔令，你常•觀絕CUUq彎名馴攔劉調： 0&CO，忿”為露曲‘戲露必‘OLC觔．煙擊CO，亂寫•’驢C6‘留群觔”t必t馴幼口勰膩雙O C&！需L俗．乙館C•館右f．黝弓C&t舛零”戲觔絮’C電，0&0t露g”群需他n簡越開個呢陶結·卹間 0&00&00.06，啄叩t合必館觔‘霎館忿‘館言0&09不霧”“絮單劉即悶蠶寮甚議口』 •”C6寥．開！’必必e，侈擊乙’OCt”討6&gt•．魷0&Ct個口牌甚巒購紳 g&&g蓄．為t&6t:．配寥．6必C，絮9擊’辟奮’6令需‘eC&0O七O；中調飾寧o 0&0館擊”9吧電“必遞t雲．0能“必館寥．糰認0．擊婦當”•嗯L‘露你t馴幼州1劇萬間10 9‘擊開9”肱露•．4鐺•’tt霧必華露討•，蓄t零0．館t電‘OCt,‘電tt留p卹田紅卹馴口牌甚州萬悶廈個蔥祖口功 6‘的9電’‘討擊．•號露．神C蓄’館電霧‘邸闢0‘館露寫’觔觔蓄0&Ct寥口眺斗幼中萬隨齡軾藝牌名不瀾個不口紅言寫劉工O 必’g右66’擊館，．令轉•．C館：”必韶C．露t&9’轉擊嘗’忖t•’鰓零綱勵勵馴訂啊名州瀾閑蔥q颼•軍功他零以馮 6&L 0．•嘗•••．戲C’奮！C.ot必’戲奪’群e&6革團醒口醒卹劉觔州甚寫口nU C&C•常0’霧鷓t’戲忿，&gtC露’開寫蓄．解露t，闐t露’館言電”婦榦軍園颼齣化口牌甚寫0州匡 擊”t6電0 .0，露•．認矓O’館C•’寥OC&’開寫露．0吋《‘gCtt”擊0絮臘訂神甚寫口nU t&L觔Cte‘擊討t言．遞•tt合．t臼。‘轉O••！以，’弱0常．tt露必．0常令馴訂牌甚1，•t個1口馴潤田 L&09Lt右．6館t合．電朋t•‘6弱t露’弱令！&’開訂•申C合戲擊’電開你‘鷓t個，“鹽劇u悶T此細訕 0’討令才6’以館C．神t寥0．購電寥，，討驢•”右t《t《’此右t夸•C！寥TC，戲OT留馴買叩榦n網單潤點•卸軾。 •，一，，。一••。－－一。•，鳥－一•瞭一屆－----－一•一•發•合。。唔一磚。•。。。。，一〝。一。。•．--.－一•必．••一•．。。．•。一••－一••。。－－一•－一。－一•－.---－一觔二•一•－一•－-－一。－一，一。一。•．----－一• 曾96TL發6t馴坤tf關！，鷓！C弱T鉤6t tg離t 006言 ,-－一•．,---－一•一•必一•。。。－一•籐－一•。。－一。。一。•。、。一•一•一••－．一••‘。。－一。一•－-－一。－－一•－一，---.．一•－一。．-．。•．••。－－一。－一。。．。一。•鳥•一。－一‘--－一。‘．。••一•一。－一。•－ 《綱戲牘加，勿馴嘛》 －•．•目•劉•響•目闕開開開口 屹01開名編開驪中颼屹切斗萬朧口開。鴉口抑認》勰嗡閱總攔口勵悶觔卹州m點鑲中：戰颼細認 •69• -70- тааквта: свнтааt. оо+гв9<а�ыт видс�т <�гс аwгнктlоаз ка СиRкгит Ркксвв скы мnс.акиляи) -----------•------------------------•------------•---•--•-----�_-------------------------------------_..-------------------------- 1980 1981 198а 1883 1980 1983 1988 1987 1988 ---°^_-•._••_._.-__°•__^.._....._-___°�___•.___°.__._.....•.••_.__.._.-°--_^..--°-°.-._-�--°--..-°.--.....°^-..... ^------ саРlты. ававиивв лзе.э s1e.1 ваа.1 7вs.1 aa9.s в41.1 вае.1 7а7.в 9зб,г -----•---•--------------------------•--- слРкты, aacslrsa а.7 а.9 а.о в.в 9s.3 в.в 7.в ао.в е.з видf9;rлях sлi�INtis а1з.э а8в.т за1.а 3аз,а зэЭ.а бsв.1 41э.4 аов.s 4п.1 NВт TOtAL ВО�ЧI� 119.9 218.0 а88.0 618.9 4а0.0 301.4 389.0 2а7.о 377.0 TOSAL NB! OOi�BTIC HO�bD6iI8D �9.0 1а2.3 108.8 1б0.3 198.1 178.3 181.4 а08.3 283.0 N8i BC9iROWINQ РА@! P211.INSт. 89.5 10а.3 84.0 9в.7 110.8 1б1.7 1а8.4 80.3 41.8 N8! 1iAтIQPAL 80Я80MiI�Ii 0.0 0.0 0,0 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.5 -8.0 74.а N8i 0l86f1 HORR061I119 (!18! т�У) 19.3 а0.0 аа.а б3.8 85.8 Э8.8 9.5 1Эа.0 147.0 !0l9L N8! У�ffiВУ011 B�19R06iINб 30.9 95.7 179.4 а78.В 2Z3.9 183.1 207,8 а0,5 114.0 LONi А8РАУl�l128 !0 8UOf18i а.б б.S 1а.8 13.7 19.9 37.0 38.1 Т3.3 77.8 CAPI?Ai. $КPDNI?UABS 438.3 516.1 8аа.1 783.1 9а9.3 801.1 8а9.1 7а7.8 934.а °_.-.._______•.__�°_•_•_����••°^___-_ свика� oowraн�t I9vвате�мксРвсР> 1sе.т 17s.э 19о.а as9.s a7s.9 313.в 3oo.s ато.а 3ав.s таты. талl�в а suв9lnlвa 1а7.о 1ве.о г37.а 3ое.7 эа9.о а91.а ат1.е азе.9 аЭ7.в тялl0зРвав та юоивв®оа.оа 18.3 в.в 1а.1 а7.б 34.3 33.s 1а.3 1а.о a1.s виввтгвв: a�tl�ы: т Рnю.кс пвт. 1ое.7 1в1.а г18.1 а81.3 г9о.7 as7.7 as7.s аав.9 г1в.1 i0lц. N8Y LОй�8 27.1 8б.8 108.7 133.8 147.8 47.8 13в.7 1Э3.а 98.0 т0lAL Q80B8 1AAN8 38.1 84.4 1аб.9 188.б 182.8 103.7 а11.3 а18.6 185.8 тоты. явРл�ыка 1а.о aa.s 1а.а Эа.в as.o se.1 sб.в 8Э.а 87.в RBPAYl�E1I8 ТО BU0982 а.♦ 4.5 12.9 13.7 19.3 87.0 99.1 73.3 77.8 авелхет+тв т тявв� а.в 1э.о s.3 1е.9 1s.7 а1.1 1s.7 9.9 1о.о N82 1.OAN9 ТО 81АlBilPRI8B8 21.7 48.7 9а.8 115.8 1Э1.8 34.4 118.7 106.1 68.6 118! ц1АN8 ТО � S.4 1а.а 13.9 18.0 15.8 13.а 38.0 27.1 29.0 0l8� CAPI?UL U888 1а3.1 104.8 73.1 43.4 137.7 151.7 81.0 11.8 170.9 PART2CIPAt2011 2N BNlPR?А2888 Za.4 а4.3 б1.0 33.3 а8.4 75.6 3а.8 Э4.0 71.3 ___________________________°-_..-........_.-_..-..._-..-..-----°----°---�--�----�--...--....----_.-..-.--�---�°--�--�---------� MiI82A: YINMO;Iйd ОУ CeNтRAL OOVER� H9D08! OBPICI2 ц1 СП�7Т PRICEB сг1, миг.дкиляв� -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------•----------------•----------------- 1980 1981 198а 1983 1984 1983 1988 1987 1988 ._�_.-...•••••_�•��•�•��°�••��••••••••��-�_._.��._.�._..-••••_�___°°._____�______--_••_____°________�^__°___•_._•._•••°•__•• YINAИCI�i ОР т9В DffiIC2! -�-�_______________�_-_�°_°��°_��°�_ TOTAL Oi0088 F2aA�C21йi ОР DBPICIf 193.0 Э31.а И0.3 813.7 878.3 883.9 768.0 889.1 88а.0 iOTAL DOF9'8l2С PIЖA�CIb2i ОР DBPICIY 1aS.0 181.а 178.4 223.1 а9а.8 293.1 299.4 389.3 441.0 ТОlAL YOABIOit &�1Il16 88.0 130.0 а86.1 39а.8 383.7 388.8 бв8.8 319.8 441.0 IOтAL Аl�AT2LцI0118(TBCL.lIIL2lАат) 78.1 113.а 134,3 198.8 а38.Э 3а2.з 397.0 48а.1 305.0 DOlCBYIC Аl�Т27•АlIOa 38.0 38.9 89.8 8а.8 98.5 118.8 138.0 183.0 178.0 пoaslWl лlоо�ткглткаll 3о.в 3s.e в1.а ее.1 1a9.s 1s3.a ао1.о aes.o а7а.о мnгтNас м�итлткон в.s 18.в аз.s а7.9 3о.3 sa.s se.o sa.1 ss.o NLi DEPIC2! PIIIANCIl16 119.9 Z18.0 а88,0 418.9 620.0 341.0 388.0 227.0 377.0 ИВт DOP9'.8l2С YI1iANCIЖi 89.0 1аа.3 108.8 140.3 196.1 178.3 181.4 208.5 263.0 l18t FQRE20N PIAANCIGб 30.9 95.7 179.4 278.8 223.8 18Э.1 207.8 а0.5 114.0 8tWRC8: !lIMISTAY QF P1.дNNIbCi AMD YI1fAUCB - 71 TUNISIA: CONSOLIDATED CENTM 0MRSHENT BUDGET IN CURRENT PRICES (IN MILL. DIVARS) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 1900 lost 1982 1083 1984 1083 loss 1987 lose ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ......................................... TOTAL CENTRAL GOVZRHKW REVENUES 1021.4 1220.8 1533.6 1738.1 21n.2 2205.6 2231.0 2371.0 2568.1 FISCAL REVENUES 763.6 903.4 1005.6 1299.3 1483.3 1369.9 1821.8 1639.5 1760.7 50-FISCAL REVENUE$ 257.6 317.4 430.0 438.0 658.9 635.8 609.2 731.5 807.4 TOTAL OIL REVENUES 211.6 275.2 393.0 333.5 427.0 458.9 392.9 404.3 458.5 TOTAL CENTRAL 0M. NET EXPENDITURES 1141.3 1438.8 1821.8 2155.0 2542.2 2547.0 2600.0 2598.0 2943.1 CURRENT EVENDITURES GROSS 703.0 924.7 1199.3 1391.9 1612.7 1705.9 1770.9 1870.4 2010.9 SALARIES 342.9 393.8 507.8 600.8 851.3 717.0 777.3 836.3 905.0 CAPITAL EXPENDITURES 438.3 514.1 822.1 763.1 929.5 841.1 829.1 727.6 934.2 NET D M CIT FIRARC ING 119.9 218.0 288.0 410.9 420.0 341.4 369.0 227.0 377.0 NET DOMESTIC FINANCING 89.0 122.3 106.6 140.3 198.1 17$.3 161.4 206.5 263.0 NET FOREIGN FINANCING 30.9 95.7 179.4 270.0 223.9 163.1 207.6 20.3 114.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- TUNISIA: CONSOLIDATED CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET AS PERCENT OF GDP (IN PERCENTAGE) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1980 tool 1982 1983 is" 1985 loss 1987 lose ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES 28.8 29.3 32.0 31.6 34.0 31.9 31.8 29.6 29.7 FISCAL REVENUES 21.6 21.7 22.6 23.6 23.5 22-7 23.1 20.3 20.4 GROW HOX-FISCAL REVENUES 7.3 7.6 9.4 8.0 10.5 9.2 8.7 9.1 9.4 TOM on 22YENM 6.0 6.6 8.2 6.1 6.9 8.6 5.6 3.1 3.3 TOTAL CENTRAL GOW. NET EXPENDITURES 32.2 34.9 37.9 39.2 40.7 36.9 37.0 32.3 34.1 CURRW EXPENDITURES 19.9 22.2 23.0 23.3 23.8 24.7 23.2 23.4 23.3 TOTAL FONCTIOMMENT 13.4 13.0 14.0 14.7 14.5 14.5 15.1 14.4 14.2 SALARIES 9.7 9.5 10.6 10.9 10.4 10.4 11.1 10.5 10.5 TOTAL INTEREST DZK(Z=.Mn.) 1.0 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.0 2.9 OTH ERS 4.9 7.7 8.6 8.7 9.3 8.0 7.4 6.1 6.2 CAPITAL MWENDITLTM 12.4 12.4 12.0 13.0 14.9 12.2 11.8 9.1 10.8 NET DEFICIT FINANCING 3.4 5.2 6.0 7.6 6.7 4.9 3.3 2.8 4.4 NET DOMESTIC FINANCING 2.5 2.0 2.2 2.6 3.1 2.6 2.3 2.6 3.0 YET FOREIGN FINANCING, 0.9 2.3 3.7 5.0 3.6 2.4 3.0 0.3 1.3 .................................................................................................................................. DRS DATA FOREIGN NET VORRO54IXG(DRS) IN US $ 142.1 127.2 96.6 219.7 170.0 223.9 328.6 128.9 215.6 FOREIGN NET BORRMUM(DRS) IN DINARS 57.5 62.8 57.1 149.2 132.0 186.0 250.9 106.8 185.4 DOMESTIC NET BORROWING, (WB) -62.4 155.2 228.9 267.7 288.0 154.5 108.1 120.2 191.6 NET DEFICIT Flumm 119.9 218.0 286.0 416.9 420.0 341.4 369.0 227.0 377.0 FOREIGN BOMMING(DRS) IN D./GDP 1.6 1.3 1.2 2.7 2.1 2.7 3.7 1.3 2.1 DOMESTIC BIT BORROWING (WB) /GDP 1.8 3.7 4.8 4.9 4.6 2.2 1.5 1.5 2.2 SOURCE: MINISTRY OF PLANNING AND FINANCE - 72 - Financel System vae1985 1988 1987 1988 CURREUT ACC0OWS SOURCES 380.0 431.4 477.6 11.0 ImREST ON M09 Poma=CIa. 30WR5N 26.3 35.2 41.7 11.0 FIN DM orm RCEIP 333.7 398.2 435.9 In~EEST 294.7 351.5 379.5 ccm8GISIGB 27.4 29.5 36.0 EORTEEUILLE ?229 2.5 3.8 5.8 ~R0DUIT DIVERS 9.1 11.6 14.8 u=ES 380.0 431.4 477.6 11.0 TOTAL INTERB ý'AflET 161.3 204.0 217.1 11.0 INTEEST PAhTO m Ca 41.8 47.0 38.3 FIN I5T POREIZN IN?M E 25.0 32.8 37.7 D0OSIT I mTEEST 94.5 124.4 141.1 11.0 SA~ARIt" 58.8 63.3 68.8 OPERATIG 36.7 44.1 58.2 TOTAL TAE 19.8 21.7 19.1 DiREC TAES 17.1 17.9 13.1 OTE TAES 2.5 3.8 8.0 PRn0FITS 85.8 98.3 116.4 PRVISIO B 32.2 35.5 51.9 JHRTIZATION 6.3 7.0 9.4 EEICE DE L'IDER 47.1 55.8 55.1 CAPITAL AC"P5~8 SOUE 748.2 484.4 471.4 436.0 CHANGE IN gEIALu 163.4 28.3 123.3 101.9 CHANGE IN DEE081U8 348.6 200.0 468.4 322.2 CAI IN CAPITAL CUX== 113.6 75.9 19.1 295.0 CEANGE I mcT C o r 122.8 160.2 -139.4 -283.1 USES 748.2 484.4 471.4 436.0 cBAN«E In OR TBM 108.8 82.3 112.9 39.2 CHANGE IN CREDI 10 ZCO6CM 663.7 362.8 371.1 439.5 CHANGE 1 MFA -19.2 27.4 -19.5 2.7 CANGE IN DONESTIC ~EMEVES -5.1 -8.1 6.9 -45.4 SOURCE: CENTRAL SATE O TUNISIA, STATISTIQUES FINANCIERES - 73 - Flnancial Syste V~AMB 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 TOTAL STO=E IN HMLL. DI~ARS CAPITAL 800RCES 3745.7 4356.3 5104.5 5568.9 6040.3 6476.3 STOK SPECIAL eo 565.6 679.9 843.3 871.6 994.9 1096.8 STCK 01 DEOM ITS 2158.5 2430.3 2778.9 2978.9 3447.3 3769.5 moETARY 1128.6 1198.5 1352.5 1402.8 1331.8 1311.2 QUASI-t~nETART 1029.9 1231.8 1426.4 1576.1 2115.5 2458.3 810CK OF CAPITAL 432.9 549.2 662.8 738.7 757.8 1052.8 STOCK OF ca mT CREDIT 588.7 698.9 819.5 979.7 840.3 557.2 CAPITAL US 3745.7 4356.3 5104.5 5568.9 6040.3 6476.3 sT OF CREDIT TO OVT 517.7 605.7 714.5 796.8 909.7 948.9 TCOF CWREDIT 10 ECou~ 3098.3 3633.6 4297.3 4660.1 5031.2 5470.7 STOK OF INFA 8.5 11.0 -8.2 19.2 -0.3 2.4 STOCK 0 M gESTIC RESERVES 121.2 108.0 100.9 92.8 99.7 54.3 80~1RC: CETRAL BANK OF TUNISIA, STATISTIQUES FI~=lCIERES 一74- 儲， 奮馳啊論1驢51開e 19名7 1006 一•••••••－--－一•，••嗚•．觔•。•你•鳥•一自••••一•－一••－－一••一•物•，一•。一••一•一，－一。。－一•。－一。•••－一。一•，一。。。一。一••••。，－一。－一。•。•一。•一•－--－一•• 口縴X絮他必以鄴團物 審目勵口口物曰口口開開目團圈口口 閱個口唱忽．一7。1認。一認．了 C必團細鑲珊才鱸萬鴉忽．一1。11忽．7·認。1 U觔熔忽．一1。11為。1一12,7 叩礪劇露園鰓紹鸞劉萬口。寫勵崗，馴加訂數一7．一a．一認．7 調調屬富開•調麟1開一a61開一開e 個•勵•．一‘細•．■一個•個•唱口露個．唱•權口唱勵個勵個口煙口個口纏口．口個口個口．•口口個口唱口必自仰•騙•個騰煙•口睡個勵擘口••••個口•口個•口■儲個中口．自•••．•個••．唱•••口•唱口•口個購個•個■個勵．口．•個口一個參個自個•個他．口••，唱，婦綢輪當一•‘，•婦一個••．個■•．•一個．唱申－一•一•••‘•一‘•一••．•，•••．•－ 劉糅絡日狀悶撾謀縱認。。訪劇細 憫口目口口開目目目目目目口目口認禺認自目臨目口口鬍口國圈園國間口 以n劉么網口國口仰．一一。一1。忽91.01藝。讓 實魄緬細州勿萬認訂．一一。一1．一1&07•．忽 口j饑他備口訂．一一一1。一1。0 7e．蠶 句劉區才〕馴劉國認馬。話中認句磁On 61．一一。4 17．忽91.07日．名 開口試讓：O蟹口他取騙颼俘劉囉日跋，忽劉區寫跑馴間唱劉讓國閱n闖細 -75� св8т vnamm 1984 1985 1988 1987 1988 ---......_---..---_-_......------•--•---•---•-----•------••---------..-....._..-----.-•.-..•..---•-..-.-....---------------•---- С1�Т N0004QiT8 SOO1bC68 0.0 8.9 7.8 9.9 11.0 I82S'ю$! 0�1 0�i1 p2NA8CIAL BO�O�1I1d3 0.0 8.9 7.8 9.9 11.0 tl8а8 0.0 8.8 7.8 9.9 11.0 DBP'08I! INl8�! 0.0 8.9 7.8 9.9 11.0 CAPI?AL �G00�!$ 8� 10.3 9.4 18.э 41.1 г3.0 СВА11ю I8 DEF'09IT8 10.3 9.4 18.8 41.1 гэ.0 . 1Т8В8 . 10.8 9.4 18.э 41.1 г9.0 t� а8У BORA. FBOM FIR цО3Т 10.9 9.4 18.8 41.8 гг.8 СВА1� цt 11ва 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.7 0. а У� i989 1984 1985 1988 1987 1988 -----------•------..-..-------^-----------•-------------------------------------•---------°•-----•------------------ !'D'lА1. 8ТОСК8 I11 MxLL. AI1tA�8 CAPIlAL 8� 1ц.9 1г8.г 1эs.8 131.9 1ю.0 г18.0 --•------•---•--- татаь nвео9пв цs.9 1ге.а 1эs.в ц1.в 1ю.о г18.о caelтai. иввs цs.9 1гв.г 1ss.в ц1.9 1ю.о г1в.о -----•-------- ТО?AL 8I9 D097:8TIC CBBDIT !0 009Т 118.4 1г8.7 188.1 154,9 198.7 г19.S 8вл -a.s -г.s -a.s -з.о -а.7 -э.s ваv�св: са8таат. вл�nс ав Tn�Iasa� втлтгат10�в sтиаsсгв� -76- D8pp83L В�6 va�e 1984 1985 1888 1887 1988 ----•------•---•-•---•-----------------�..«.-------------••-........----�•-------..••••-••----------••--••-•••-•----- Сl8�т А�^С�А1т8 8011АСВ8 г4S.1 г94.8 9эг.а 98г.3 Iв�т 411 pOV FINA�CIAL BO�OFIIN3 2г.8 19.4 г7.4 91.8 FIN 2N$т INT8R88т 1iDC82Pт8 г2г.э Zт3.г 905.0 э80.7 Iитпеват 19э.s гаs.1 гп.в ze9.s с�ог9�кввга9sв � гэ.s а4.е ав.Т эs.1 юат�в�пкгв тlтава 1.а 1.а 1.в э.о PRODU2т DIV8N8 3.9 S.9 а.9 3.1 usнs 2as.1 г94,в ааг.а зва.s тотN. 2Ят8R88! РАУl�Nl8 88.4 1г9.3 13г.8 138.7 INт8RF•8т PAYN�NтB т0 С$ э9.э 41.1 48.г 97.3 YIp Iв8т FФ�BIti9 INTSR88? 0.0 0.8 9.г э.4 DBPOBIY 2�1т�$8т 88.1 87.8 10э.а 117.8 $ALARIBS 48.8 3г.э S3.г 39.8 OPBRATIl�3 � эТ.9 40.8 So.7 81.3 тОтАL тАХВ8 15.3 18.а 19.8 14.9 DIRBCт УАХ88 1э.8 18.9 18.Т 11.1 дт� тв� 1.Т 2.1 8.1 3.8 PROFIтB а4.9 5э.8 Sэ.9 8т.8 P90YI8I098 2г.0 г7.г 28.1 37.г l1F�tMLAlIO1f 4.4 s.3 3.4 8.4 � ввывРlсвв лв т�Iсв 1a.s а1.з га.а аа.г r.вРlтак. аа�оv8тв воv�ю sт9.1 s1a.1 эаг.г гео.т sтг.о тотаt. canxa� яi вввскаг. а� sT.4 so.1 э1.а 1a.s za.e сваивв гн овговгтв ггв.в эц.т 1s1.s э9s.а гsв.в NFW CAPITAL -15.1 19.Т -о.7 9.8 98э.8 Niai NВт СВ CRBDIт 1о8.г 1гг.8 1во.2 -139.а -г9г.7 usss зт9.1 s1o.1 sаг.г гво.Т � этг.о tioVт Н8У HOR�piiI9б 88.7 97.г 7г.S 33.2 ?.9.0 N�i N8т С[�Iт т0 т88 Рl70�lУ э27.8 4вг.8 гэ8.Т гго.9 908.э 10TAt, СНА1й� Ili NFa Z. 5 -Z1. T г4 . 5 13. 9 7. а � I11 DOM{BTIC � -19. т -г8. г 8. S -10. 7 г7 . э 8�СЕ: СВl1т9АL 888з;ОР тUNIBIA. 8ТАт28т2Q�lЕ8 BINANC28S88 77 Depostt 8~ T~ 1983 le" lus le" 1987 1988 ----------------------- « --------------------------------------- ------- .. ................ ...................... T~ ElTOCK9 19 WlU. DI~ CAPIM 80~ 2858.1 3237.2 3747.3 4089.5 4370.2 4742.2 ----------------- 9= av =AL emm RESO~ 275.7 333.1 383.2 414.4 428.9 453.7 =AL D9MIT8 1801.7 2030.3 2348.0 IM.S 2895.3 3151.9 HM W 1045.8 1101.0 1257.8 1314.8 1223.4 1219.5 ~ MWAM 735.9 929.3 1000.4 1184.0 1871.9 1032.4 =AL ST= CAPIM A= WS 200.8 185.5 205.2 204.5 214.3 597.6 8= ca CMIT TO Fin IMT 580.1 688.3 OID.O 971.1 831.7 539.0 colm USES 2858.1 3237.2 3747.3 4089.5 4370.2 4742.2 - ---------- D==C CRZDIT ID W9T 333.5 402.2 499.4 571.9 827.1 858.1 DMWIC CMIT 70 Z=CW 2439.0 2768.6 3229.4 3488.1 3887.0 3995.3 Ca~ ma =~ = 457.0 555.3 648.8 878.8 802.2 594.0 ca m= w INTER~ om -39.8 21.8 69.5 181.2 48.3 -UO.2 D~ CROXT 1981.1 2125.0 2440.5 2330.3 2803.3 3337.7 i MeRr ]ju TJIM 80.7 83.8 70.8 97.8 133.0 183.8 8= av m RWIM å~ 11.0 13.5 -8.2 18.3 31.8 39.0 ST= 0 AVOM EXTER1~ 85.1 101.8 88.3 84.2 114.8 138.2 81= 07 Remomm sa UT 84.8 93.8 83.1 119.2 169.7 208.2 9= OF enåge~ ErrEu~ 158.9 181.9 177.8 187.1 Z52.7 307.4 DMM IC RES~ 74.8 54.9 28.7 35.2 24.5 51.8 &Ä=: cmm om OF TWISIA, SMISTMffl F11=10M •78- 助•，•兀叩觔騙a頗觔。 ，馴口曉1閱騷1開61鷓7 19弱 唱。•。一••一•••一•。－--－一。倘。．騙•一••一•－-－一•－一••■•一••一•一•申中響一口••一騙•”&--－一”•。••倘••一，•．••••－一•－一，”鑰一•－一祕。•一。一口－--－一個－－一。一，中。很。 C攤凶顫鸞膩馴點颼日 口口口口名目口目口口口開閑間馴口口目翅口 卸中庫口婦5日。5 91．一05。2 1閱1勵細鸞個00審，卹娜縐劉區軍閱州颼認0 0.00。00。O r孫鑲關仇口觀別膩禺絮買呂弱．一亂。一05。蠶 l顫〕田細鸞51。6 19.9的。0 以關颼開X啊唱忽．6忽。6名。9 界頂h閭叨11·I澀蓄I絮勵熔1 .11。e忽。6 劉魷加悲1鸞b州閱悶方．名6 .19。7 U田細，6,5 91．忽105．忽 劉n他1顧牌軍塵吃劉總胞讓鉑忽5。1為言．4為8。5 1闖牌劉塵牌劉盧閱綱鴉鸞OC日0。70。e 0.e n啊〕離東劉盯口鰓n甲織眾繒以。心幼。為a為。a 認馴細贊頂不•庫迂0。0 13,:1念。4 馴購觔栽神為。5日。1 0．忽 劇叫劉肄馴口屆江間賜轎畸，1一，6•S。a 劉濾必鸞閱q闔‘1．念1.9心。： Dl••才雙旬症，0，必1。忽名。0 m園讓實田訌田0．為0。1忽．念 弱卹Fl實日，1。必為4。4為必．6 認口叮朧綢個5。09。為鈇。7 攔度田絮I訕悶矓0團1。01。6忽。0 B屆網屆才萬口物叮L國。口C加寫幼。8，讓。鳥忽0。• 口jX劉區州闐以口為 騙口口圈團目口口目口口祖口口口口目口團口口口口 閱濫口鑰認日。一1，。01忽5。95讓。7 劉寫編C日觔懿田頂日劉叩刈匹卹物頗口唱朋113。一念。一0藝。一7。1 C也口紹IN訂叮個萬話19．認忠9。一1。8 55。忽 開寫開劇jX劉匹0讓。9 76.6 9.，一6日。忽 頸日闐紹實切口壯中no。0 0.00。00。6 U拙寫邸忽忽日。51幼。01忽5。95讓。7 00栽粈鸞馴頂馴寫n細0。00。1忽．忽0。1 他闢萬訂口（中萬鸞絮O鸞口觀馴州隨加009認6。11閱。a lal。念 劉n他口豳口驪〕啊鼯念．5讓。心一34。1一鳥。9 C日觔購口頂以期叩涊認和細口鈴幼忽魯。1一16。6 17。6一72。7 ，頃勵讓：C劉吃訕必方越膩0，鄴囑跑個馳，織鰓矓鰓X中幼r〕國閱U闖舊 間鱗牌豐，閒紅d韶的1胡1觀略留’,1任X叩騙aO勵神視勺n稱喝巴：當讀m開 &’言言．寫《•．弱常．勿Lt&T嘗0•當》g劉U口縱鷹誕離細咸狗 9．當《6 .CLC”館O&00,0 0.0，魷口廈〔以口髯燭叫戲坤馴狙』O蠶試繙9 必”寫觔必’嘗觔電．開C．言0&0 0.0•單渲n口妝蘿頗以劍牌的寥軾牌輝 t&CC一寥．響寫一e’雪C‘寫0 .0 0.0勾胡戲神騰m蠶切A胡驢屆O萬試寫零 C．關t嘗．麗蓄t”的蓄0 .ogTL&C露Tg&00！口〔1甚才nX州必口匡口闖 t’吃開t L．令O！言6．彌0T6&606C拿CCgg”館g名1口羈口州萬悶lq 擊．右L嘛蓄．觔觔Ct 0．神！言6 .L,ot 0.L99忿’6右9勵膩煙伏跑帖釭口馴口誠勵吃緘刈 0’當一！．寫一e合L。俗’L一觔”必一雪寺T一犛闔O偶釭卹翁口誠甚綱關闖 合．6C觔tT”••C取寫．弱戲常．LCTt L.ot6俗．觔0必頗鐺矗憫名X州口 言．e言9•9 9．發9．•9&0•’你名X口觀口U總助勿n力甚 霧．當寫擊‘&C祐零．俗館9•Lg俗L，釁gC電”審C言寫勵頗O說玲個闖名X州他勿n力名 6&60C••弱才雲．6C寫觔”00言C&gL!t&eCt劉玲認團默•1州mb 觔”C！俗．Lt 6.0T右．OTC’奮T當’弓Tn邸你開叫 C．粤CO”露館寫．弱寥6&0！雲•．!6！•’忿U略X馴滅國丁np甚 ！•常帕0．館當寥．必C,t‘的觔你”9擊C6&6合寥館議頸O曉跑個閑X認dSW觀認 0&eC令Tt，館忿T露．魷粤露．LCT!L.ot6擊，擊OL認讓川0S叫甚X州陰 口目口口目自口自編口唱禺目，口口 個戲闈Xq’啊頂縱田口萬勾Tn必名 一鱸‘•••••．••．曲－-－一•．一梯．•••一曆響•••個勵唱勵由參牌•細鳥•一•一••－－一•一••彎藝‘．勵藝•一鳥瞭一婦自•••－一婦－一牌鑄勵•必由飾一•嗚－－一奮一•勵•．•－一煙b二••．•目••－－一•－－一。一•－一畸•一勵 •geTL你6！開戲‘你6一鷓t露鷓t審間阬 。平•驪調開由to禹。O &6L. 80 - APPENDIX C DETAILED PROJECTIONS OF TIM CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET DEFICIT AND EXPANDED SELECTED INDICATOR TABLES - 81 - iWP sudet Projection for Tunala (nminal quantltoa in million dina) (rel quailties in 1988 million dinera) 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Fiscal Revenues 1780.7 1923.0 2142.0 2375.0 2610.0 2000.0 3245.0 Dåroot Tags and Other 413.6 421.4 470.0 510.0 M80.0 620.0 675.0 Impots Dåroota 320.0 343.4 380.0 415.0 460.0 510.0 55.0 Taxes 93.8 78.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 Indiroot, Te 1347.1 1503.8 1672.0 1865.0 2050.0 2280.0 2570.0 PrIoe Subidion 225.1 282.6 297.0 320.0 298.0 319.0 362.0 get Indiroot Taxes 1122.0 1241.0 137$.0 1545.0 1752.0 1981.0 2208.0 Net Fiscal Revenuos 1535.8 162.4 1845.0 2055.0 2312.0 2581.0 2883.0 son-Fisal Revenus 807.4 915.0 823.0 785.0 790.0 735.0 695.0 0±11 Revenuo 403.0 391.0 388.0 380.0 383.0 308.0 251.0 Loan Repaymonta and Other adjustmnta 77.8 70.0 7$.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 Other won-FIGGal Revanuo~ 328.8 454.0 382.0 305.0 322.0 337.0 349.0 mot won-fleca Revenues 729.8 845.0 748.0 885.0 705.0 645.0 600.0 totalevenuel 2R88.1 2840.0 2985.0 3140.0 3400.0 3635.0 3940.0 Total llt Revmnues 2285.2 2507.4 2593.0 2740.0 3017.0 3226.0 3483.0 Real FiRal Revenues 1780.7 1797.4 1875.7 1953.1 2023.3 2128.1 2253.5 Grouth in Real Fiscal Revenues 3.1 4.4 4.1 3.6 5.1 8.0 Real Met Fplal Revenu 1535.8 1552.2 1615.8 1890.0 1792.2 1892.2 2002.1 Groth in Real Met Flical Rev~nues 1.1 4.1 4.8 8.1 5.8 5.8 eol Diret Teas and Other 413.6 393.5 411.6 419.4 434.1 454.5 488.8 Growth in eal D. Ta~es and Others -4.9 4.6 1.9 3.5 4.7 3.1 Real not Induc t Tame 1122.0 1158.7 1204.0 1270.6 1358.1 1437.7 1533.3 Grouth in Real mot ndiroot Taos 3.3 3.9 5.5 8.9 5.9 6.7 Real an-ftscal Rovenues 807.4 854.3 720.7 629.1 612.4 538.9 482.6 Grooth in Real on-fi6cal Revenues 5.8 -15.8 -12.7 -2.7 -12.0 -10.4 leal Rot won-flteal Rovenuas 729.8 789.0 655.0 583.3 546.5 472.9 418.7 Grouth in Real Rot Non-Fisoal Rev 8.1 -17.0 -14.0 -3.0 -13.5 -11.9 Real 011 Revenues 403.0 365.1 338.0 312.3 298.9 225.8 174.3 Groth in leal 011lavenues -9.4 -7.4 -7.5 -5.0 -23.9 -22.8 Real Other won-FIGOal Revenues 32.8 423.9 317.0 250.8 249.8 247.1 242.4 Grouth in leal Other m Revonue 29.8 -25.2 -20.9 -0.5 -1.0 -1. Total Go~I ~Rpenee 3450.0 3828.0 3951.0 4142.0 4395.0 4880.0 5055.0 kamore f tho Dom (Militar inl) 505.0 807.0 660.0 725.0 750.0 765.0 800.0 Epensa ot of ort. 2945.0 3221.0 3291.0 3417.0 3845.0 3915.0 4255.0 Loan Repwmmenta and Other adjustmonts 77.8 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 Epense Net of Loaen Repayents 2887.2 3151.0 3218.0 3337.0 3560.0 3825.0 4160.0 Price Subidies 225.1 282.8 297.0 320.0 298.0 319.0 362.0 Erpmnse. Not of Price subsidies 2842.1 2888.4 2919.0 3017.0 3282.0 3508.0 3798.0 Interest Payf~nta 251.0 297.0 340.0 355.0 375.0 395.0 420.0 roreign 175.0 210.0 242.0 248.0 280.0 271.0 285.0 Dustio 78.0 87.0 98.0 107.0 115.0 124.0 135.0 Total Expnses met of Interest 2391.1 2591.4 2579.0 266.0 2887.0 3111.0 3378.0 30URCE: NINIST Y or r ~hING AOD FIANCE - 82 - Real Inteest ay~nta 251.0 277.3 297.7 291.9 290.7 289.6 291.7 Gro~h in Real Intoront ay8mnt 10.5 7.4 -1.0 -0.4 -0.4 0.7 Real Total 8eneo Rat of Interent 2391.1 2419.6 2258.3 2189.1 2238.0 2280.8 2345.8 Groth in Total lal ~eponaoa lux 1.2 -6.7 -3.1 2.2 1.9 2.9 Not Dottt 378.9 381.0 326.0 277.0 245.0 280.0 315.0 get Forotcn Borroing 114.0 188.0 140.0 65.0 50.0 60.0 80.0 gros Foreign sorrowins 441.0 588.0 570.0 540.0 530.0 540.0 80.0 Fore8n Loan Röpaymento 327.0 402.0 430.0 475.0 480.0 480.0 500.0 military 55.0 63.0 62.0 65.0 60.0 53.0 50.0 #of-t-lutory 272.0 340.0 368.0 410.0 420.0 427.0 450.0 Net Dmetio borroin8 23.9 195.0 186.0 212.0 195.0 220.0 235.0 groas Domstio Borrowing 441.0 400.0 418.0 462.0 465.0 305.0 535.0 Dmostio Loan Rep~yment9 178.1 205.0 230.0 250.0 270.0 285.0 300.0 Real mot Dotioit 376.9 355.7 285.5 227.8 189.9 20$.3 218.8 Real Foreign sorrowing 114.0 173.7 122.6 53.5 38.8 44.0 55.6 Real DomotAo borr~wins 262.9 182.1 162.9 174.3 151.2 161.3 163.2 WDP deflator 1.000 1.071 1.143 1.216 1.290 1.384 1.440 VMO 1988 1989 Total Exponoe lot of Interot 2391.1 2591.4 Govormnt Inveatmmnt 346.5 381.0 Real Govt Invetsent 346.5 35$.7 Groutl in Real Govt Invotaat 2.7 Total Expqes leb of Govt Invese nt 2044.8 2210.4 Government 8al.ario 905.0 1049.0 eal Gov. Salaries 90$.0 979.5 Groth in Real Govt Salaries 8.2 Total Exponeos mot of Govt alariog 1139.6 1181.4 Govetment Conm~ption 320.5 367.0 Real Govt canom~ptiop 320.5 342.7 Grou h in Real Gov~ Conanm~ctm 6.9 Total Expnes mot of Govt 9 onnep*n 819.1 794.4 Real Total Expnaes lot of Gov Cona 819.1 741.7 Grutb in leal Exponae~ GC -9.4 SUCE: INISTIT CF FLAU0 AND FTMAOM - 83 - 27 Jun 1989 1 Table I TUNISIAs SELECTED INDICATORS Scenario I (Ttnisian Scenario) SAME 1986 1967 1988 1969 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 InfltatIon (cPI) 6.41 7.61 7.11 7.91 7.01 6.11 6.21 5.21 4.9% Inflation (GDP daf lator) 3.3% 7.6 6.31 8.4% 7.01 5.9% 5.91 5.01 4.7% Export price Increase -8.81 13.5% 8.91 6.6% 6.81 6.01 5.71 5.0% 4.8% Iport price Increase 1.9% 13.01 8.21 8.31 7.01 6.11 6.1% 5.4% 5.0% UP Growth Rate -1.6% S.81 1.5% 5.1% 4.11 4.21 5.01 S.1% 5.5% Nominal GOP Growth Rate 1.7% 13.91 7.9% 13.9% 11.4% 10.31 11.21 10.4% 10.4% WNP Growth Rate -1.3% 6.81 1.51 5.31 3.7Z 4.31 4.9Z 5.1% 5.4% Pominet WP Growth Rate 2.01 14.91 7.9% 14.21 11.01 10.41 11.1% 10.4% 10.4% GUP/capite Growth Rate -4.0% 4.31 -0.81 2.81 1.1% 1.71 2.4% 2.5% 2.91 Total Conwaption Growth Rate 0.6 1.41 1.4% 4.4% 3.51 2.51 3.2 3.9% 3.6 Consumiption/capits Growth Rate -2.1% -0.91 *0.91 1.91 1.01 0.01 0.71 1.41 1.1% DOD/UP 67.1% 70.61 65.4% 65.61 62.41 59.71 56.01 52.81 49.8% Total Debt Service (USS) 1/ 923.6 1081.8 1210.6 1237.2 1403.5 1347.9 1234.1 1198.8 1215.9 Debt Service/XGS 2/ 29.7 27.81 25.3% 25.31 26.71 24.0% 20.41 18.31 17.0% Debt Service/OP 10.5% 11.2% 12.1% 11.71 12.31 11.01 9.21 8.31 7.7% Interest/=GS 1/ 2/ 10.6 9.21 8.81 9.1% 8.61 7.81 7.21 6.71 6 3% Interest/P 3.7% 3.71 4.21 4.21 3.91 3.61 3.3% 3.0% 2.8% Gross Investment/UP 23.5% 20.9% 19.1% 22.0% 22.9% 23.9Z 25.01 25.61 26.6% Changes in Stock/UP -0.5% 0.6% -1.5% 0.8 0.71 0.61 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% Domestic Savings/UP 16.21 19.71 19.1% 20.11 20.61 21.71 22.81 23.61 24.81 National savings/UP 15.51 19.91 19.3% 20.5% 20.61 21.71 22.81 23.5% 24.7% Public Ivestment/GP 3/ 13.5% 11.31 11.5% 11.5% 11.5 11.51 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% Public SavIng/GDP 3/ 5.61 9.2% 7.81 5.4% 5.31 5.95 6.61 7.01 7.5% Private Investment/UP 10.5% 9.0% 9.11 9.71 10.81 11.81 12.81 13.7% 14.6% Private Savings/UP 9.9% 10.6% 11.5% 15.1% 15.31 15.81 16.21 16.6% 17.1% Ratio of Pub/Prv Investment 128.1% 125.5% 125.71 118.31 106.6 97.6% 89.91 84.01 78.9% ICOR S years 10.9 7.0 7.5 5.0 6.6 4.5 4.6 4.1 4.2 Government Revenues/GP 31.21 28.7% 28.81 28.5% 26.81 25.61 24.91 23.9% 23.3% Government Expenditures/GDP 4/ 36.4% 31.61 33.21 32.4% 29.81 27.91 26.71 25.81 25.2% Def (-) or Surplus (*)/UP 4/ *5.3% -2.81 -4.4% -3.91 -3.01 -2.31 -1.8 -1.91 -1.9% Exports Growth Rate 5.21 14.01 19.5% 4.1% 4.1% 4.31 4.91 5.3% 5.81 Exports/UP 30.81 35.01 42.21 41.11 41.01 41.11 41.01 41.1% 41.21 Iports Growth Rate -2.1% -4.21 16.21 7.4% 5.1% 3.71 4.4% 4.81 4.9% Iqorts/UP 38.01 36.2% 42.1% 43.01 43.41 43.31 43.1% 43.11 43.0% Resource Gap/UP -7.31 *1.21 0.1% -1.91 -2.4% -2.21 -2.11 -2.1% -1.8% Current Account (in USS) -704.9 -98.6 22.9 *161.5 -273.7. -259.8 -284.2 -302.i -299.4 Current Account/DP -8.0% -1.0% 0.21 -1.5% -2.41 -2.11 -2.1% -2.1% -1.9% Change in Inter. Reserves in USS *241.9 115.8 348.5 86.0 78.9 157.1 90.3 64.6 193. Gross Res as Month of IMPGFS(IF$ 5) /5 1.3 2.1 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 - Net Reserves as Month of IMPGNFS /6 0.2 0.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.1 Base Money/UP 10.6% 10.1% 9.9% 9.91 10.3% 10.4% 10.61 10.9% 11. N2/GDP 51.71 51.9% 53.0% 53.01 54.01 55.21 56.0% 56.9% 57.8% - 84 - 27 Jun 1989 1 Table 1 cont'd TUNISIAt SELECTED INDICATORS Scenario 1 (Tunisian Scenario) SuAME 1986 1987 1988 1909 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Total Enterprise Productivity 0.862 0.882 0.896 0.907 0.919 0.930 0.940 Growth 2.4% 1.6X 1.1% 1.3% 1.22 1.12 Total Employment 1560.0 1625.0 1669.0 1761.3 1836.7 1910.4 2000.0 2096.3 2202.9 Growth 4.2X 2.7Z 5.5% 4.3% 4.02 4.7% 4.82 5.1% Naminal Exchange Rate (US 8) 0.794 0.829 0.860 0.930 0.958 0.987 1.006 1.027 1.037 Export Price Level (US S) 0.943 1.070 1.165 1.148 1.191 1.225 1.270 1.308 1.356 Import Price Level (US 8) 0.951 1.075 1.163 1.164 1.209 1.246 1.295 1.338 1.392 Mon-traded Good Price Level 0.874 0.941 1.000 1.081 1.158 1.227 1.301 1.367 1.432 Taxed Von-traded Good Price Level 0.918 0.988 1.050 1.135 1.215 1.288 1.365 1.435 1.503 Trade-Weighted Foreign Price Level 0.947 1.072 1.164 1.156 1.200 1.236 1.283 1.323 1.374 Trade-Weighted Foreign Inflation -3.4% 13.22 8.6% -0.7% 3.8% 2.9X 3.8% 3.12 3.8 Trade-Ueighted Ret Exchange Rate 0.867 0.952 1.001 0.99? 0.996 0.995 0.993 0.993 0.993 Reat Gross Investment 1887.3 1774.8 1646.3 1995.4 2167.1 2349.1 2580.0 2785.3 3043.9 Reat Change in Stocks *40.1 52.8 -133.7 72.9 65.8 60.7 74.2 51.8 61.0 Rest Gross Fixed Investment 1927.4 1721.9 1780.0 1922.5 2101.3 2288.4 2505.8 2731.5 2982.9 Growth -11.9% -10.72 3.4% 8.02 9.32 8.9% 9.5% 9.02 9.2% Reat Public Adm Investment 392.1 350.0 399.4 419.8 437.0 455.3 478.1 502.5 530.1 Rest Public Ent Investment 690.4 608.4 591.8 622.0 647.5 674.7 708.4 744.5 785.5 Real Private Sector Investment 864.9 763.5 788.8 880.8 1016.9 1158.4 1319.3 1486.5 1667.3 Reat Private Enterprise Investment 430.8 362.8 434.8 509.1 626.6 748.6 889.0 1032.7 1192.9 Reat Household Investment 414.1 400.7 354.0 371.7 390.3 409.8 430.3 451.8 474.4 Gross Investment/GDP 23.52 20.9% 19.12 22.02 22.9% 23.9% 25.02 25.6X 26.6% Changes in Stock/4OP *0.5% 0.6% *1.5X 0.82 0.72 0.62 0.72 0.52 0.5% Public InvestmentldOP 3/ 13.5% 11.3% 11.52 11.5% 11.5% 11.52 11.5% 11.52 11.5% Public Ads Investment/00P 4.9% 4.1% 4.6X 4.62 4.6% 4.6% 4.6 4.62 4.62 Public Enterprise Investment/GDP 8.62 7.22 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% Net of NDFI Pub Ent Inv/SP 7.02 6.3% 5.9% 6.6Z 6.62 6.62 6.6X 6.6% 6.6% Private Investment/eP 10.52 9.0% 9.1% 9.72 10.82 11.82 12.82 13.72 14.62 Private Enterprise Investment/dP 5.4% 4.32 5.02 5.62 6.6% 7.62 8.62 9.52 10.42 Household's 03rect Investment/GP 5.22 4.7% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.22 4.22 4.25 4.1% Nominal Pvt Borrowing Interest Rate 9.22 9.4% 9.42 10.7% 10.32 9.4% 9.62 8.72 8.42 Nominal Central Bank Rediscount Rate 6.62 S.22 2.9% 4.02 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.02 6.5% Nominat Nat Borrowing Interest Rate 9.5% 9.5% 9.52 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.02 8.52 8.5% Nominal Govt FI Borrowing Int Rate 4.95 5.22 5.22 6.5% 6.!2 6.5% 6.5% 6.0% 6.02 Nominal Other Gov Borrowing Int Rate 11.22 14.7% 10.6X 3.12 2.9% 1.9 1.1% 0.82 0.82 Reat Pvt Borroung Interest Rate 2.7% 1.6% 2.12 2.6% 3.02 3.1% 3.22 3.3% 3.3% Real Centrat Bank Rediscount Rate 0.22 -2.32 -3.9% -3.62 -2.32 -1.02 -0.6% 0.82 1.52 Reat Net Borrowing Interest Rate 2.9% 1.7% 2.22 1.5% 2.32 3.2X 2.72 3.1% 3.4% Reat Govt FI Borrowing Int Rate -1.4% -2.2% *1.82 -1.3% -0.5% 0.42 0.3% 0.82 1.12 Real Govt Other Borrowing Int Rate 4.6% 6.62 3.22 -4.42 -3.9% -4.0% -4.82 -4.22 -3.95 - 85 - 27 Jun 199 1 I/ Inctudes NLT debt, INF and Short-term debt. 2/ XGS Inctudes Worker Remittances. 3/ PubLic Administration and Public Enterprise 4/ Not of Amortization. S/ Central Bank only 6/ Centrat Bank and Financial Institutions - вь - 18 Jn1 1989 1 ТьЫо а WB 8udбaL Pюjootioдa tos Тидlеiв сяотiиаl aum►tltloa iA тlцi� лlпвrв) 8ооаакlо 1 (T�mialan aoenario) vдед�э 1988 18в7 1988 1989 1990 1991 199а 1899 1984 ----------------^-------•---------•---•-•-----•------••----•----•-°.--_-_-•-•--•----••---------••------•--------------.... 1. Nat Biaaal Rovennoa 1sва.в 14ав.в 1sэs.в 1ввэ.1 1a7s.1 ao7s.a аээо.7 asas.в авво.а D1seoL Tazoa and OLborn 4з4,8 414.8 419.8 AaB.S 477.з з13.1 384.4 8а0.7 869.9 юеti snalraoc таяов аэs.о 1о1а.о 11аа.о 1аsв.в 1эа7.в 1sво.в 17вв.а 1ввs.1 alas.o г. ыаL ыоп-вlвовl яо�вв s7o.1 вsа.о таа.в вss.1 7s9.7 ва1.в 71о.а в4s.а sas.a 011 Hevonuoa э1а.8 эза.э ООэ.0 э9з.8 э9а.4 э84.а э88.4 э08.9• 249.7 Otцor Non-F1soa1 аеvеяиоа аз7.э эо3.7 эа8.8 4S9.э 987.э э07.4 8аэ.в ээ8.3 943.8 Cвutrel Ввд� Psollta 34.9 44.э 7в.3 54.7 э1.9 44.3 44.7 зэ.0 з0.4 ослатв аоа.а ав1.4 а4в.1 4ое.в ээs.а ава.а а7а.1 авэ.1 a9s.a э. Tota1 llet lteveauaa <1ta) 1939.7 а084.8 аа89.а аSэ8.а а8эб.8 а787.3 э040.а эаэ1.Z э480.а 4. Tote1 Net Bzpeaaes 2эав.7 аэ11.8 Z84a.a а9а4.4 а988.0 э048.7 9авВ.з 3309.1 э770.8 S. TatosaaL Раута�Lв 189.а аээ.0 а31.0 э00.7 э4S.7 эз9.0 978.з 99в.0 417.i Poselgn 98.0 118.7 1з0.8 а1д.а а4а.э 248.8 аза.7 а74.8 28а.8 nomoaLio 91.а ив.а 1оо.л 9o.s 1оа.а uo.s ие.а 1а1.а 1аа.а в. Totia1 ��ов яве оя косо:овL c4-s) a1sa.3 ао7в.в аэаl.а аваэ.7 авао.э авв7.7 ааое.о э11э.о ээsэ.4 7. воеа�алL км,а.св►вnх эоо.s а7о.а эае.з авs.е 417.1 4sв.о о7а.а з11.о saa.a 8. tiover�ent 8a1sr1ea 77Т.э 8эв.8 а0з.0 108а.8 118о.4 1аза.9 1388.3 1478.9 1384.9 9. Оwreяm�ent Caa�avmptla�n 281.а 91э.8 эа0.з э71.з 9а7.8 4а0.9 430.1 47T.S 304.9 10. Tota1 Raaldual Н:реавев (8-7-8-9) 780.3 838.э 81а.а 803.8 843.1 388.0 В1а.а 84з.7 710.7 ------------•--•---------------•------------------•-------------..••------------------------------------------------------ 11. Net Deцo1L (4-э) э89.0 аа7.0 э77.0 э88.а э91.а а79.а 243.8 аТ7.8 910.7 Net Forslga Hossoalifg а80.8 108.8 18з.4 186.0 1э9.9 83.1 з0.э з9.3 78.8 ыаt Domeatlo earsaalдg 108.1 1а0.а 191.8 а0о.а 1а1.э а14.1 19з.э а18.э аэ0.8 - 87 - 18 Ju1 1988 1 raЫo а У19 Ваl�об РкоjооLlодп tor Tm�laia troel qnaotltlи in 1988 т111iод diяara) tesaRA каtвв !а perea►L) Sоыиrlо 1 tYwiloim► oeouorio) vnamo 1988 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 -•------------•----•--------------•---•--------.._.....--•---•-----•-------•--•--_-•--------•--•_-----•------------------- 1. Roal.ltoL 91иод1 �ц®е 1389.3 1318.а 13з3.8 133а.4 1813.7 1889.8 179а.а 189а.8 аоо3.4 aroata iд R®е1 bot Уlвовl Нт+ваиnд •4.@ 1.з 1.1 а.1 4.В в.1 3.8 S.8 Roa1 diкeoL Токол в� Othvrв 3а0.0 440.7 а19.8 з9з.4 411.3 Ы9.9 аза.0 434.4 4и.3 asoeгth ia Аво1 0. lояза ьтд OELora -13.з -8.1 -b.9 4.8 1.9 з.3 4.7 з.1 яооi аоФ u�airooe sиоо 1ои.s 1оп.7 11аа.о 11sa.1 иаол,з 1a7o.s 1зsе.а 1аэв.s 1sза.9 aro�atA 1п Аао1 � Iudlrвot ?asoo 0.8 b.J з.9 з.9 3.3 8.9 3.9 8.7 а. я�лs �ос �oa-Siaaвl 8ovoaaoo 8sa.: в99.а 7а9.в 788.7 вse.s sвэ.о sав.1 а7а.4 а1в.а arowEb iп Rод1 11oL �-Flaoal Rcrv 7.а а.э в.1 -и.о -1а.о -з.о -1з.s -ц.а $оа1 Oi1 Bavonuos з37.8 874.3 40з.0 985.1 398.1 з1а.8 а97.1 а28.1 174.8 втоаЕц ia 8оа1 011 воvедл�вв 4.7 7.8 -9.4 -7.а -7.3 -3.0 -аз.9 -аа.8 Аеа1 ОЕ►tor цод-F1soe1 Rovo�tuos a9b.9 3а4.9 зав.б ааз.8 з18.3 aSO.a а49.о а48.з 241.8 araac3 1n �еа1 ОW�вк UP Ноноаtаи 10.4 0.3 а9.7 •aS.3 -ао.9 -о.3 -1.1 •1.9 э. :о�.е1 aeai eot во�оwи а+а) аац.7 aals.a аавs.а аааl.а аа7о.а zа3а.в аззе.а asвs.a zп9.в asoaLb 1n Аоо1 llot Веvе�авв -1.а а.а а.4 -s.o -о.е з.е 1.а а.з 4. aoai totai юеt в:�+nаов аввз.7 aas7.o аваа.а аи7.4 гsss.e гаео.l asa7.1 аsвв.в авзв.8 вко�пь in гоtвi юоti в�еnаеа -7.в 7.s а.1 -s.з •э.о 1.в 1.в г.7 S. Аво1 I�ttosest peymmtLe а18.4 а4Т.7 а31.0 а77.з а97.9 a9a.Z а91.0 а89.в а91.9 в. Пва1 УоLь1 8s� aot ot Iяterest (4-3) а4а7.8 аа09.4 аз91.а ааао.0 aZ37.9 а187.9 аазв.l аа78.7 аз44.9 вкоаW in total 8ео1 Н�оеа ttoI -9.7 в.а 1.г -в.7 -э.1 a.z 1.9 а.9 7. яиi во� гnvoscmm�t эаз.7 ав7.а з4в.s зss.s ss9.a звз.о зв8.s s7a.u зт9.7 вка�в iя яолi во� uroestы�+w -1в.а ао.в а.7 1.о 1.о 1.s 1.s 1.s в. яееl во�с aoiorioa ие.1 ее8.9 9os.o 9ео.а 999.9 1o1s.9 1oso.e 1ова.3 111s.э amatin in яооi c�ovt выакiое о.о 1.е в.э г.о а.о з.о s.o з.о 9. яЕ,в1 вovti cooam4pcioa за1.7 зэs.s зао.s заа.в заа.в з4а.в з4в.1 sa9.s зsз.s вsоась iп коаi oowtt camoe�cioa з.7 -э.9 в.9 -о.о о.о 1.о 1.о 1.о 1о. 8оа1 2oto1 вевlдnаl Втр tв-7-в-в) в9а.е в99.7 в19.а та1.а sss.9 ава.а а7о.е а7а.в а9в.9 вто� in я®81 aeвiaoai вауаивоо -z1.в 17.1 -a.s -as.o -1s.a 1.в о.а s.1 --------------------------------------------•----•---------------------•---•--------------•-----------------•------------ 11. аопl ноL coкieit са-з) 4аа.1 а41.э зn.о зsв.а zвs.a aa7.s 1ев.в гоа.о а17.э Воо1 !(ot Foroigд 8ossoвlag а98.4 113.5 1в3.б 171.8 1ао.3 3з.0 з8.7 аз.8 33.8 Жое1 цоt Oomostio Sorra�iд8 1аз.7 1а7.7 191.8 18б.8 180.9 174.з 130.1 ц9.8 161.4 ODP dвllaLor 0.874 0.941 1.0о0 1.084 1.162 1.aZ8 1.зоо 1.368 1.б30 88 - 27 jun IM 1 TWISIAs SEL9CM INDICATM $~wi# 2 tolow 8~ oef feit) 19" iw im 1989 1990 1991 1w2 im 1994 ................................................... . ........................................................... Inftation (CPI) 6.4% 7.6% 7.1% 7.99 7.0% 6.2Z 6.3% 5.35 5.09 Inf tutten (CDP deftotor) 3.3X 7.6% 6.39 8.« 7.09 5.9Z 5.95 5.1% 4.7% ~ t price fnermw -8.8X 13.5% 8.99 6.6% 6.85 6.0% 5.7x 5.05 4.115 1~ price Introm 1.95t 13.0% 8.2% 8.3% 7.0% 6.1% 6.1% 5.4% 5.109 OP GroM Rato -1.6% SAX 1.5% 5.1% 4.1% 3.9z 4.5% 4.6% 5.05 neminet OP 0~ Rato 1.73 13.93 7.95 13.9X 11.4% 10.0% 10.7Z 9.9% 9.9Z W Gronb Rato -1.3% 6.0 1.5% 5.3% 3.79 3.9Z 4.45 4.5% 4.9X #mina( W Gr«M Rot* 2.05 14.9x 7.99 14.2z 11.09 10.1% 10.6% 9.ex 9.8x W~ Ita 4~ Rato -4.0% 4.3Z -0.85 2.M 1.1% 1.4% 1,95 2.OZ 2.39 Totot CQ~ Icn er~ Rot@ 0.6% 1.4Z 1.4% 4.4% 3.e% 2.4% 2.8% 3.4% 3.1% cw~ lwvc"lta &~ Rot@ -2.1% -0.9% -0.9% 1.95 1.29 -O.IZ 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% DO/W 67.1% 70.6% 65.4% 65.8% 62.4% 59.95 56.4% 53.4% 50.6% Totot, Debt »"fee (M> 1/ 925.6 1081.8 1210.6 1237.2 140.5 IMA 1240.1 1224.6 1261.9 Debt Servle~ 21 29.75 2TAX 25.3% 25.3% 26.75 24.211 20.75 19.1Z 18.1% Debt $~ICCIW 10.5% 11.29 12.1% 11.7% 12.3% II.OZ 9.4% 8.6% 8.1% interest~ 1121 10.6% 9.2% 8.8% 9.1% 8.6% 7.9% 7.3% 6.9Z 6.4% intemt/W 3.7% 3.7% 4.25 4.29 3.99 3.6% 3.39 3.1% 2.9% Grow Invootmnt/OP 23.3% 20.9Z 19.IZ 22.0% 22.7% 23.5% 24.4% 25.05 25.9% chw~ In ttwVW -0.5% 0.6% -1.5% 0.89 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% Domtie ~ rmmp 16.29 19.7% 19.1% 20.1% 20.35 21.3% 22.39 22.9% 24.09 matiemt gevinp/CDP 15.5% 19.9Z 19.311 20.5% 20.3% 21.3% 22.35 22.99 23.93 hmie Invootcont/OP 31 13.5% 11.3% 11.5% 11.5% 13.1% 13.89 13.8Z 13.7% 13.e% Pubtie UvInWOP 31 5.6% 9.2% 7.89 3.4% 5.0% 5.41 6.0% 6.3% 6.7% Private lm"tmnt/W 10.3% 9.05 9.19 9.7% 8.99 9.09 9.9% 10.8x 11.55 Private Savfr40W 9.9X 10.6% 11.5% 15.1% 13.3% 15.9Z 16.3% 16.6% 17.2% Ratio of PuWPrv lnvotmi 128.1% 125.5% 125.7% 118.3% 146.21 153.2% 139.0% 127.3Z 119.4% 1= 5 veer* 10.9 7.0 7.5 5.0 6.6 4.6 4.8 4.3 4.5 cmrmmt ROVW~IQDP 31.2% 28.7% 28.8% 20.5% 26.8% 25.6% 25.1% 24.2Z 23.7% Govenwon Expomiltures/W 41 36.4% 31.6% 33.2% 32.« 31.89 30.95 29.94 29.25 28.9% Dof (-) or Surptus OMOP 41 -5.3% -2.8% -4.4% -3.9% -5.0% -5.3% -4.9% -5.0% -5.1% Export* 8~ Rot* 5.2% 14.0% 19.5% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 4.1% 4.5% 5.0% ExportslOP 30.8% 35.0% 42.29 41.1% 41.0% 41.0% 40.8% 40.8% 40.89 lqwts G~ Rato -2.1% -4.2% 16.29 7.4% 5.1% 3.3% 3.79 4.05 4.1% Importslop 30.05 36.2% 42.15 43.0% 43.4% 43.25 42.9X 42.85 42.65 Resw~ ~ w -7.39 -1.2% 0.1% -1.9% -2.4% -2.2Z -2.29 -2.1% -I.M Current Account On M) -704.9 -98.6 22.9 -161.5 -273.7 -259.8 -2M.2 -302.3 -299.4 Current Acc~ IW -8.0% -1.0% 0.29 -1.5% -2.4% -2.1% -2.1% -2.1% -1.9% Change In Inter. Ree*~ In M -241.9 115.8 348.5 86.0 78.9 157.1 90.3 64.6 193.9 or~ Ras na 9~ of INPOFII(IPS 5) 15 1.3 2.1 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 met Reserves as ~ b « INMF* 16 0.2 0.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.4 om ~ /OP 10.6% 10.1% 9.95 9.9% 10.3% 10.4% 10.73 11.0% 11.2% WJGDP 51.7Z 51.9% 53.0% 53.0% 54.15 55.4% 56.55 57.7Z 58-9X ............................................................................................................... - 89 - 27 Jun 1989 1 Table 3 cont'd TUNISIAt SELECTED INDICATORS a am meassaeassssmesus.W s s s Scenario 2 (Higher Budget Deficit) SAlEE 1986 1967 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Total Enterprise Productivity 0.862 0.882 0.896 0.906 0.917 0.92? 0.936 Growth 2.46 1.6 1.16 1.2 1.1% 1.06 Total Emploent 1560.0 1625.0 1669.0 1761.3 1836.7 1903.7 1981.9 2065.3 2157.7 Growth 4.26 2.76 5.5% 4.3% 5.6 4.1% 4.26 4.56 Nominal Exchange Rate (US 6) 0.794 0.829 0.860 0.930 0.958 0.967 1.006 1.027 1.037 Expert Price Level (US $) 0.943 1.070 1.165 1.148 1.191 1.225 1.270 1.308 1.356 Ieport Price Level (US 6) 0.951 1.075 1.163 1.164 1.209 1.246 1.295 1.338 1.392 Non-traded Good Price Level 0.874 0.941 1.000 1.081 1.158 1.228 1.303 1.371 1.437 Taxed Non*traded Good Price Levet 0.918 0.988 1.050 1.135 1.215 1.289 1.368 1.439 1.508 Trade*teighted Foreign Price Level 0.947 1.072 1.164 1.156 1.200 1.236 1.283 1.323 1.374 Trade-Uighted Foreign Inflation -3.46 13.2 8.6 *0.74 3.86 2.9% 3.86 3.1% 3.86 Trade-eighted Reet Exchange Rate 0.867 0.952 1.001 0.997 0.996 0.994 0.991 0.990 0.988 Reet Gross Investment 1887.3 1774.8 1646.3 1995.4 2146.2 2301.4 2505.1 2681.4 2908.8 Reat Change in Stocks *40.1 52.8 *133.7 72.9 65.8 60.7 74.2 51.a 61.0 Reat Gross Fixed Investment 1927.4 1721.9 1780.0 1922.5 2080.4 2240.7 2430.9 2629.6 2847.8 Growth -11.96 -10.7% 3.4% 8.06 8.26 7.76 8.5% 8.26 8.32 Rest Pubtic Ad Investment 392.1 350.0 399.4 419.8 437.0 454.0 474.4 496.0 520.6 Reat Public Ent Investment 690.4 606.4 591.8 622.0 798.4 901.9 939.6 976.9 1029.5 Reat Private Sector Investment 844.9 763.5 788.8 880.8 845.0 884.8 1016.9 1156.7 1297.7 Relt Private Enterprise Investment 430.8 362.8 434.8 509.1 454.7 475.0 586.6 704.9 823.3 Reel Household Investment 414.1 400.7 354.0 371.7 390.3 409.8 430.3 451.8 474.4 Gross Investment/GDP 23.5% 20.96 19.1% 22.06 22.7% 23.5% 24.4% 25.06 25.96 Changes in Stock/GDP -0.5% 0.66 -1.56 0.86 0.74 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% Public Investment/GOP 3/ 13.5% 11.3% 11.5% 11.5% 13.1% 13.86 13.86 13.7% 13.86 Public Ada Investment/GDP 4.9% 4.1% 4.6 4.66 4.6% 4.66 4.6% 4.6% 4.66 Public Enterprise Investment/GDP 8.66 7.26 6.96 6.9% 8.52 9.26 9.26 9.1% 9.1% Net of NDFI Pub Ent Inv/GDP 7.06 6.3% 5.96 6.66 8.26 8.96 8.96 8.86 8.86 Private Investment/DP 10.56 9.06 9.1% 9.7% 8.95 9.06 9.95 10.86 11.5% Private Enterprise Investment/GOP 5.46 4.3% 5.06 5.66 4.86 4.86 5.7% 6.66 7.3% Household's Direct Investment/GP 5.26 4.76 4.16 4.1% 4.1% 4.26 4.26 4.26 4.26 Nominal Pvt Borrowing Interest Rate 9.26 9.4% 9.4% 10.76 10.4% 9.7% 10.1% 9.3% 9.1% Nominal Central Bank Rediscount Rate 6.6% 5.26 2.95 4.06 4.5% 5.06 5.52 6.0% 6.5% Nominal Not Borrowing Interest Rate 9.S 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.06 8.5% 8.5% Nominal Govt FI Borrowing Int Rate 4.96 5.2% 5.2% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.06 6.0% Nominal Other Gov Borrowing Int Rate 11.2% 14.7% 10.6% 3.1% 2.96 1.96 1.1% 0.86 0.86 Real Pvt Borrowing Interest Rate 2.7% 1.6% 2.1% 2.66 3.1% 3.36 3.6% 3.76 3.96 Reet Central Bank Rediscount Rate 0.26 -2.36 -3.96 -3.6% -2.3% -1.1% *0.7% 0.6 1.4% Reet Nat Borrowing Interest Rate 2.96 1.76 2.26 1.5% 2.3% 3.1% 2.5% 3.06 3.3% Reet Govt FI Borrowing Int Rate -1.4% -2.26 -1.86 -1.36 -0.56 0.36 0.25 0.66 0.96 Real Govt Other Borrowing Int Rate 4.66 6.66 3.2% *4.4% -3.95 -4.1% *4.9% -4.3% *4.06 *********************************************************************************************** **************. - 90 - 27 Jun 1989 I 1/ Incudes NL debt, 1NF nd Short-term debt. 2/ XGS Includes Workor Ruittmnces. 31 Public Adelnistration and Public Enterprise 4/ Het of Amortixation. 5/ Central Bank only 6/ Central ank and Finmnciat Institutions .91• 1•J曉1開•1 鸞由細‘ 唱加系鷓馳州“t么。．．加蠶魚•么。拿。 《馴國山滷兀旬闕齲么U“細U認1頗以”鼴。〕 a．頗鰓細呂l以必鰓加向鵪加以•1t》 ，驕口”1劇細1開才1開el•e•1自鬨1開：1開名19nl開心 一，。一•－一榆。一•－一•－一曉”•一•”－一••中•••一。。•－一，•一•一•口•－．一••••勵•一•發啊•‘伯‘－一華•”，•－一•一•”•個－－一••騙•．口•’．•－一••一••一••••一中•，•，騙一，。•要•一•－一。－-－一。－- 1．勵俗外。o臨訕洲馴魄“1為館．6觸認‘日認念鬍．•1開，。11訂5。1討7•．蠶幼鼯。，念開0 .9忽開0。5 以加的絮勰的•do曉滷幼鳥飄．6心鵝．6鳥1忽．0蠱認．，蠱71.5馭5．名開蠱。1；雙亂，為671,0 恥俗勵d么蠶闐俗鸞個闐觔忽．010論．0 11幼．0論鶉．61方叮．61開1．名1761。5 19名才．矗忽19擔．5 露。勵他歡顯哺越ooU勵寫馴物00,10。1開0.0悶C.6 055。11驢。16肚．•才10。才以6．忽S開．寫 011訕為憫織闐為論．必牌結．忽馮0,.0，鷓．煙審屹，4開鈞。莽忽絲。7為09‘忽：開。1 劍由”職淌唔么“曉訕為馴朧開幼7．讓讓O,.7胡6.6心歸．忽，61二，01,5縫為．0忽鑒6 .9忽心6.1 C個鷗鑲曉勵口由納，以幼飄．0心為。，1•．5弘。7忽1．•跑心。丰心心。0 51.0侖6.0 劇由驢。加馳．心幼1。為皺•。1心0心。6自，5．心朋，．忽加O。1幼，。1幼e．名 讓．黝糰纏編騙俗訕馴哺•”•《計造）調驢．7加鴃t6認•5．忽忽5，•，忽開，鳥．•訂開．1,0紹。9方幼5&O，心邸，7 蠱．黝細總細b乞勵中•。論開名屆．1幼11.6馴騙讓．忽忽屹待·鳥，幼1‘名忽馮0心．忽，開5．寫忽偶1,7為幼1．讓 5.h白開“乞h申．鷗•調0．名幼忽．0幼 1.0讓00．•讓心，.1，絲，•鳥15．才心飄．7幼騙．1 訕結d妒開．0 116.71開．8忽10。蠶狀念．讓忽心0．藝忽59.7訂心，e忽屹，O 以•闐化1。•1．忽116,,100.4 90.510讓．蠱認指。刁156.0 119．•論O。5 6．奮劬幼kh卻開“臘曉驢h白鰓閱俗《一5）念認•．，幼7•．e幼91.1震劇總·7念開5.，勻仰1．讓鼴10.，方開1.0審7弱．斗 7。．戲磚認國劇鴉點齲隨•勿劉鷗開O。5訂0。讓斜6。5蠶肥。8心17.1心蠱6。1鳥才0。5 511,65鳥忽。e 0 .0，脾神圈閱職么細訕娌么闢717。，驢6。，閱5.0 10結。0 1160．馮幼幼。忽幼61。•幼閱．心1騙7。念 0．頗”馴口•織化O館”•齡么個朋1.:，認．6結0,S,11.，忠訂．64名1.0為開．碼為18.1父5.1 10．黝細總動。么糁闕必勵．，•開（6-1一•，9)7閱．，個開．,01•．二開讓．6開0．忽911.19鼴．讓10讓1,01幼1．心 11。勵也加戲．lt《心一忽），開．0離1.0忽17.0方弱。1弘6.，啊6。1開忽．:1之6。1韶S。5 h俗h”颼開助－鰓唱名屆0.9 106.0認5．蠱1開。01讓•．9弱．130‘盞騵．5 19．屆 勵藝訪開”的1．魚鰓劉闕觔唱10e.1認0．念101.6幼0.1鳥06.5 511.0閱1.9 661．忽1為5.1 一92- 10）曉調開1 奮d纏•‘ 緬h向的劉叫“朧。••細：h•么：1 《“此馴•馳魷‘加1馴細磁么U個d加啊•》 《日“州自霧鷓“細馴陰•••鳥》 觔飼騙•細a《磁戶“細翻的o.flol俗》 ，•。•。1日6日調071劇細1朋91日閱么開亂1口認le開10訕 。一，一，．。，一•華一哺•。•，編－．勵－．•。．戶••‘自一•由•細口《勵4•••個•－．•••■•個■－．口－．口•唱口一，細•．•一神一，•嗡•勵•一細•••司•司•一翅勵一•．一•司••一口••個•－．口•．口．•■發翅■•••••．口唱口••••••••••••■一•■－．口一•－一••••．-－一，••個－ 1．視“1勵七外00磁訕”切點叩1開口．,1516．心1開，。6 15馳。心161，。yl馴細。0 11飽．認10開．0忽00j.s 0“州由細細病其h乞才1認•誠訕網唱閱館一鳥．6 1．為1。1心。1為．66。1 5.6 5.8 助緘01響闐t鸞個的個do曉IO開馳0 .0鳥心O。，心認。6，卹．心鳥11.，鳥10。勵心訕。0鳥騙．鳥碼6•．5 食‘畸么細黝。1 0．奮“。0。•d馴由oro一1,，忽一6。1一心。侮為．61。•，,5心．1方．1 助。1萬ot加dlr“么絮•”1開O‘忽10,，。7 11認。0 11開．1認0畚．審認才0.61，開‘•1心名0.61騷5&0 O啊州由細魚一1開•鳥hd么“．乞常•“0,6鳥。審忽．，華．•，。5 6.0,.9 6., 忽．馴勵緘勵他勵口•點日O磁勵寫個潤開6騙．1口開．47幼。67朋。76潤。6開，。0駁6。1鳥指。5心16．方 口觀目比加萬．。么馴騙職•中么0．曉動，7．忽心。，e。1&17 .0&1心。0,，。O一1,.5一11．• 助曉以1為馴’纖”•審開．e訂鳥．5蠱開，0讓鵝，1讓方0.1讓認‘•忽叮。1幼口。1 11為．• 么頗畸么加寫間1 011訕”個•個侖。17。．••。心一7,．一7。，,S。O•aa.9一認。8 勸緘劍由驢勵悶rn屆。緘訕網馴叫網幼心．，鰓跑．0攤•．6蠱幼．6,16.5寫開．念顫•．0以6．忠鴃1。1 勵•戚激細黝柄個由鰓口馳．州縫團．•10．碼0．忽幼．才唱，.,”幼．0一0.3·1。1一1.0 細。黝切1屆跑．1劉柚也訕”物潤“《計名）幼碼1。7離認．必劇調5．忽朋為1．忽幼才0．心幼勻。•朋，為。鳥朋65‘必忽心認．8 口馴州山細屆自自1目此勸馴哺臘論口一1。忽念．：忽。心一忽．0一O，•，。痲1。忽：．忽 心，細緘黝勾此綢的勵中口•”蠶劇唱．1鸛訂．0讓以忽．：鋼寫才．忽名7鳥1.：訂才必．5幼方0.6幼開．6加開．忽 口遼．”么加鸞。細纏開冶俗h馴“&,7．•1 .5念．1 1.61。1忽．，忽．0讓．鳥 5．萬癩．么加鳥鰓“鳥取中．•幼念編．為訕1 .1鰓1.0蠶71&，言幼．9寡開．5,19．鳥勻論．5,31．鑒 6．劉．此黝勾必寫神總比緘h比勰“么《必·5）以為7.，紹09．心幼戲·露忽必助．0：鳥心論．，以訂．0幼讓0.1讓馴騙．忽朋為‘.9 C“州么加鸞。細二寫．曉勵，••“勵1·9.16·忽1．忽1&0 1.0念．名1．必3.1 7．助此口細，么h聞闖細馴口比訕忽。7乞訂．忽斗鳥6。5盞55。9為開。馮開，。0，弱。5忽14。1忽79。7 由．或么細雙。•i口劬鴉勵齲闖•他．症嗎‘16。心幼。6忽．7 1.0 1.01。51,51。5 8．取他跑1口b間乞屆盡兀勰1輯開0。1開0。9的5。0口閱。，999。0 101必．9幼騙。1 10細忽．心1115。認 馳綱戚細鑲細轉Ob鴉齣訕驕念韶0。01。00。屆忽．0當．0添。0,.0讓．0 9．助此口造，他么勵。•併1饑鼴1 .7忽，忽．5紹0.5，蠱忽．6讓紹．6，娼．6，鳥6.1，鳥9.6,5,.1 做綱誠由加助磁口匕嗚O團口•帥幼．,.7·，.9 6.9一0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 10．助曉為幼兀寫“1么婦lh華I卜1-6-9)09名．06閱．le論．忽7心1.:1鳥1．忽鸛1。57弘．•1騙‘2闖7.0 口遼．威激加觔緘屆國么曲“江勵中國日館·念1.6 11.1一9.5 0.0 0.0 1．必0．鳥5.1 11．勸o1NO乞加豔。It《心一，）為絲。1念鳥1．丰371。03弱．忽心7000 511,7父1.：幼1．鳥576．心 發•。1網鵪k“么歸細蠶州么開之弱。鳥11讓．5 le5．心111.6 U0.5幼．0忽•。7鳥籌．5 55.7 動此屆“細閑鷗么。觔鼴婉山閱1神·？U》·1論1二la‘·6，開·忽‘恥·1‘鼴·6‘訂·6 520.7 O藝r向以．切：必．訂鳥0。觔1 1.000 1.0鸛1．認1 1．銘01。加11。讓間1。心3之 93 - V Jun 190 1 Table 5 nNISIA: ELECTED INDICATORS Scenaria, 3 (NISher Budget Deficit with NoWery Accominodation) sum 19" 1W 1908 190 IM M M M 19% ............................................................................................................... inflation (CP0 6.4% ?.a 7.1% 7.92 11.7% 8.72 9.0% 7.5% 6.91 Inflation (GDP deflator) 3.3% TM 6.3% B." 11.01I S.U SA 7.3% 6.611 Expert price increase -S.SX 13.5s 8.#Z 6." 11.5% 8.5% 8.5% 7.2% 6.611 lqwt price Increase 1.9% ILOX 8-2Z 8.3Z 11.71 8.62 8.8% ?." 6.9X Go Growth Rate -1.6% S.SX 1.5% S.1% 4AZ 3.91 4.5X 4AX S.OX Nominal GOP Growth Note 1.?X 13.9% 7.9% 13.9% 16.39 12.6% 13.5% 12.2% 11." W Growth Nato -1.3% 6.0% 1.5% 5.3% LIZ COX 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% Nominal OW Gtvmth Rate 2.0% 14.9z Y.9X 14.2s ISAX 12.7% IMMI i2.2z MON W/capita Growth Rate -4.0% 4.3X -0.816 2.8% 1.1% 1.4% I.W 2.0% 2.3Z Total Consumption Growth Rate O.a IAX 1.4% 4.4% 3.7% 2.4% 2.81 3.5% 3.2% Consumptionfeepifts Growth note -2.1% -0.9% -0.9% 1.9% Ln -0.1% 0.39 4.9% GAS DW/GDP 67.1% MAX 65.4% 65.8X 62.4% ".9Z 56." 53.4 SO." Total Debt Service (M) I/ r13.6 1081.8 MO.# 1W.2 U03.5 1350.0 1240.1 IVA.6 120.9 Debt Service/M V 29.?X V.U 25.3% 25.3Z 26.7% 24.211 20.?X 19.0% 18.1% Debt Servfco/GDP 10.5% 11.n 12.1% 11.7% 12.32 11.0% 9.42 8.6% 8.1% InterestAGS I/ V 10." 9.2% S-SX 9.1% 8.6% 7.92 7.311 6.9% 6.4% intomt/GDP 3.7% WZ 4.2% 4.2% 3.9% La 3.3% 3.1% 2.91 Gross Investment/OOP 23.5% 20.9Z 19.1% 22.02 22.82 23.5% 24.52 25.1% 26.OX Changes In Stock/GDP -0.5% OAX -1.5% 0.82 0.7% a." 0.7% O.SX 0.5% Domestic SevinesIMP 16.22 19.7% 19.1% 20.1% 20.411 21.3% 22.4% 23.0% 24.1% National swfngs/GDP 15.5% 19.9% 19.3X 20.5% 20.4% 21.4% 22AX 23.0% 24.02 Public Investment/dOP 3/ 13.5% 11.3% 113% 11.5% 13.1% 13.SX 13.811 13.7% 13.8% Public Sovine/ODP 31 S." 9,2% ?.S% SAX LOX 5.5% 6.1% 6.4% 6.8X Private Investment/WP 10.5% 9.0% 9.1% 9.72 9.0% 9.1% 10.0% 10.9X 11.7% Private SwirW/GDP 9.9% 10.6% 11.5% 15.1% ISM ISM 16.3% 16.6% 17.2% Ratio of Pub/Prv Investment 128.1% 125.5% 125.7X 11S.n 145.5% 152.2% 13?.SX 126.0% 118.1% 1= 5 years 10.9 7.0 7.5 5.0 6.6 4.6 4.8 4.3 4.5 Government R@vwiAm/WP 31.21 28.7% 28.82 28.5% 27.0% 25.8% 25.2% 24.43 23.811 Government Expwwitw"/GDP 4/ 36.4% 31AX 33.2% 32.4% 31.7% 30.82 29.8S 29.1% 2B.TS Def (-) or Surplus M/QDP 4/ -5.3% -2.S% -4.4% -3.9X -4.7% -5.1% -4.62 -4.7% -4.9% Exports Growth late 5.2% 14.0% 193% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9X 4.1% 4AX 5.1% Export$/GDP 30.811 35.0% 42.2% 41.1% 41.0% 41.0% 40.8X 40.8% 40.82 Imports Growth Rate -2.1% -4.2X 16.2S FAX SAX 3.3X 3.0 4.1% 4.1% lqwt*/ODP 38.0% 36.2% 42.1% 43.OX 43.4% 43.2% 43.011 42.9X 42AX Resource W GDP -7.3% -1.2X 0.1% -1.9% -2.4% -2.2% -2.2X -2.111 -1.8% Current Account (in M) -704.9 -98.6 22.9 -161.5 -2?3.7 -259.8 -284.2 -302.3 -299.4 Current Account/00P -S.OX -1.0% 0.2X -1.5% -2.4% -2.1% -2.1% -2.1% -1.9% Change in inter. Roserm in UN -241.9 115.8 348.5 86.0 78.9 157.1 - 90.3 "A 193.9 Gross aes as Nonth of IWOFSOFS S) A 1.3 2.1 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 Not Reserves as Nonth of IMPUFS A 0.2 0.5 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.7 Base #Orwy/oop 10." 10.1% 9.9% 9.92 10.2% 10.3% 10.5% 10.8% 11.0% N2/GDP 51.7% 51.9% 53.0% 53.0% $3.6% S4.72 SSAX 56.6% SMS .............. I ................................................................................................ - 94 - 27 Ja 1989 1 Table 5 cont'd TUNISIA: SELECTED INDICATOII Scenario 2 (migher 6uget Defit with Nonetary Accmodation) SUM 1986 1987 1988 1969 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Total Entrpris. Productlvity 0.862 0.882 0.896 .0.906 U.917 0.927 0.936 Gromth 2.42 1.6% 1.1% 1.2 1.1% 1.0 Total Ehployment 1560.0 1625.0 1669.0 1761.3 1856.7 1903.9 1982.6 2066.5 2159.7 Grouth 4.2Z 2.72 5.5% 4.3% 3.7% 4.1% 4.2% 4.5X #MIaMl Exchanse mat. (ios 8) 0.794 0.829 0.860 0.930 1.000 1.0 1.103 1.149 1.181 Export Prico Lovol (US 8) 0.943 1.070 1.165 1.148 1.191 1.225 1.270 1.308 1.356 ~uort Price Levet (US 8) 0.951 1.075 1.163 1.164 1.209 1.246 1.295 1.338 1.392 Non-trad~d Good Price Loval 0.874 0.941 1.000 1.081 1.209 1.312 1.428 1.534 1.636 Taxed Nn-tradd Good Price Levot 0.918 0.98 1.050 1.135 1.269 1.377 1.499 1.610 1.717 Trade-.ighted Foreign Price Levet 0.97 1.072 1.164 1.156 1.200 1.236 1.283 1.323 1.374 TradeUighted Foreign Inflation -3.4Z 13.22 8.6% -0.7% 3.8 2.9% 3.8 3.1% 3.8 Trade-Wefghted Rat Exchng Rate 0.867 0.952 1.001 0.997 0.996 0.995 0.991 0.990 0.989 Roet Gros Invostment 1887.3 1774.8 1646.3 1995.5 2149.9 2307.3 2514.0 2692.8 2923.5 Rel Change in Stoccs -40.1 52.8 -133.7 72.9 65.8 60.7 74.2 51.8 61.0 Ret ros Fixed Invotmfnt 1927.4 1721.9 1780.0 1922.6 2084.1 2246.6 2439.8 2641.0 2862.5 Grouth -11.9% -10.7% 3.42 8.0X 8.42 7.8 8.6X 8.2X 8.42 Roet Public Adb Investunt 392.1 350.0 399.4 419.8 437.0 454.0 474.5 496.3 521.1 Roeat Public Ent Investment 60.4 608.4 591.8 621.9 798.2 901.7 939.2 976.3 1028.7 Real Privat. Sotor Investmnft 844.9 763.5 788.8 880.9 848.9 890.9 1026.1 1168.4 1312.7 Ret-Private Enterprise Invetment 430.8 362.8 434.8 509.2 458.6 481.1 595.8 716.6 838.3 Ret Nousehold Investmmnt 414.1 400.7 354.0 371.7 390.3 409.8 430.3 451.8 474.4 Oroas Investmmnt/0P 23.5% 20.9% 19.1% 22.02 22.82 23.52 24.5% 25.1% 26.0% Changes in Stock/P -0.5% 0.6% -1.5% 0.82 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.52 Pubtic Investmnt/®P 3/ 13.52 11.3% 11.5% 11.5% 13.1% 13.8Z 13.8 13.72 13.82 Public Ada Investunt/®P 4.92 4.1% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6X 4.6Z Public nterprise Investmmnt/GP 8.83 7.2% 6.9% 6.92 8.5% 9.2% 9.22 9.1% 9.1% Het of NDFI Pub Ent Inv/QDP 7.02 6.3% 5.9% 6.6% 8.2% 8.9% 8.9% 8.82 8.8 Private Investumnt/oP 10.5% 9.0% 9.1% 9.7Z 9.0% 9.12 10.0% 10.92 11.7X Privat* Enterprise Investsont/OP 5.4% 4.3% 5.0% 5.6X 4.9% 4.9% 5.82 6.7% 7.42 #ouseholdss Direct Invostment/OP 5.2% 4.7% 4.1% 4.12 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% Nomtins Pvt 8orrowin interet Rutt 9.22 9.4% 9.4% 10.7% 15.6% 12.5% 13.1% 11.7X 11.12 Nominol Centrat Bank Rodicount Rate 6.6% 5.2% 2.9X 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.52 Nominal Not Sorrowing Interest Rete 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.52 9.52 9.52 9.02 8.52 8.5% Nominal Govt Fl Sorrowing Int Rate 4.9% 5.2% 5.2% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.02 6.0% Nominht Other Cov Borroing Int Rote 11.2% 14.7% 10.6Z 3.1% 2.9% 1.9% 1.12 0.82 0.8% Roet Pvt Sorrowing Interest Rote 2.7% 1.6% 2.1% 2.6% 3.4% 3.5% 3.7% 3.9X 4.0% Resl Centrat a Rediscount Rate 0.2% -2.3% -3.9% -3.6% -6.5% .3.4% -3.2% -1.4% -0.3% Ret Nt Borrowing Interost Rate 2.9% 1.7% 2.2% 1.5% -2.0% 0.7% 0.09 0.9% 1.5% Rast Govt Fl Borroing Int Rate -1.42 -2.22 -1.8% -1.32 -4.72 -2.02 -2.3% -1.4% -0.8% Rel Govt other Borrowing Int Rote 4.6% 6.6% 3.2% -4.4% -7.9% -6.3% -7.3% •6.3% -5.7X - 95 - 27 Jun 1989 1 1/ Includes NLT debt, itF and Short*term debt. 2/ xes includes Worker Remittances. 3/ Public Adainistration and Public Enterprise 4/ Net of Amortization. 5/ Central Bank onty 6/ Centrat Sank and Financial Institutions -96- 18 Jn1 1888 1 УеЫв 8 ЧВ �вt Pso,jвotlas�s Рок Y�misia tnominsl qumtltlsa !а mi11loa дlaess) 8oonaslo з tHlBbor HaABat DetioiL alth lФoaeLer�r Вооаа®odatl�) иt�в 1988 1887 1888 188@ 1ю0 1881 1883 . 199з 1884 ----------^-------------....----•.•..----....-»..-..---•-----......_----.-..�-----------------------------------•-----..._..-».--. 1. цо0 F1soa1 8оv�аов 18ю.8 14а8.8 1Sзц.8 1888.1 1857.7 аа18.1 aS38.S а897.1 за87.а D1sooL lавве т1д OGherв 43б.8 414.8 41з.8 4Z8.S 4ю.8 330.8 818.0 893.4 784.1 Mot IndisooL ?аков езs.о 1о1а.о 11га.о 1аs8.в 14s8.1 1вве.s 18з7.s ааоl.е аsоз.а а. ноt 8�►-вi8оаl яв�ов sто.1 8se.o та8.в ess.a а18.в тss.7 8о1.в 7еэ,4 вев.е 011 Bavoлvos 812.8 зSа.з бОз.0 з83.8 408.7 410.7 4аз.8 348.1 а84.7 Othor 8ыt-glaoal аоvожсо а37.з 805.7 за8.8 459.4 410.0 з43.0 977.8 з87.з 412.а Сваtrвl Bank Ркоцbв 34.8 40.3 78.5 30.7 39.8 83.8 70.8 78.з 7а.9 0�Lhera а0а.4 а81.4 ai8.1 404.7 9SО.з а81.4 307.0 918.0 8з8.3 з. коавl aoti яо.►в�о. t1+аэ 1ese.7 аов4.в аавs.а аsзе.з ат.з аете.е азsе.l эеае.s зю4.а 4. тасаг �ое вкрмsов азае.7 аз11.в авеа.а а8а4.з аз18.7 звае.е 4озз.s а41з.а aese.l s. кntiosoaL га�tв 1во.а аэз.о as1.0 з0о.в эю.4 зеа.а а4о.7 аю.7 s4s.e Уоквlgа ю.0 118.7 ц0.8 а10.а а3з.0 285.7 а84.7 з07.8 за1.9 DomeaLio 8i.8 118.з 1ю.4 �.b 10з.4 1а9.4 138.1 181.а аа4.0 в. Tota1 Етрvдвод Hot oi 2пLosвst (4-sэ alse.s аоте.в азеl.а аваs.7 аево.з зазв.т sse4.в зеаа.s 4з1з.а 7. вото.:�вnt кттов�аti зоо.s а7о.а seв.s зеs.е aэs.s 47а.7 sas.в s7a.s в1а.а 8. Ооvвхотояt 8а1ек1� 777.з 8з8.3 90l.0 108а.8 1а11.7 19з8.8 1488.1 1857.0 1818.0 е. oonorл�►t соаво�сiт ав1.а а1э.е зао.s зп.s 41s.1 4so.o аю.7 sзs.o s7s.8 1о. тосаi яавiаваl в�с�вявев св-7-а-а) 78o.s вsе.з 818.а 8оз.s ею.о s7э.s 1o78.s ц8о.о 1аю.1 ------•--------------------------------------------------------------------•-----------•--------------------------------- ц. нос доцоiс с4-зэ зю.о za7.o зn.о эвв.о sзе.4 вs4.1 вn.4 па.т еее.е 1tв0 Yoroigia Horroиia8 а80.8 l08.8 183.4 188.0 148.0 88.8 33.а 88.8 90.8 Net Da®eatic Borsowing 108.1 1а0.а 191.8 а00.0 зю.б S84.S Ваа.8 708.1 804.0 97 18 Jul 1989 1 Table 8 me gamet ~octionc for ~914 (~ ~Utlea ta IM nälläGn d~ 4~ ratics la peroffit) Sommio 3 (61~ ~et Deficit. with Ko~ Accaggod~ TEMO lus 1987 im im im 1091 ina 1903 1094 ----------------------------------------------------------- ------------------- ----- - --- . ----- . ------------------------ 1. Röel fot viseal R«fw~ 1589.3 1518.4 1535.8 1552.4 1813.7 1889.7 1782.0 1892.7 2003.1 0~ ta ~ mot 719681 Ro~ co -4.8 1.3 1.1 4.1 4.8 8.1 5.8 5.8 Real Dårec. ?mm ud Othom 528.0 440.7 413.8 393.4 411.5 419.3 433.9 454.4 488.4 0~ in Roal D. T~ and 0~ -15.3 -8.1 -4.9 4.8 1.0 3.5 4.7 3.1 Roel mot# 1~ T«u ION.S 1075.7 11=.0 1159.1 U04. 3 1170.5 1358.1 1438.4 1534.7 0~ ta Real mot 1~ TUGG 0.8 4.3 3.3 3.0 5.3 8.9 5.9 6.7 2. Roal get fon-r18081 Rov=~ 852.1 699.4 720.6 788.9 878.3 575.4 $81.0 485.7 427.3 ft~ ta kool fat som-VIGG81 Rev 7.2 4.3 8.1 -14.2 -14.9 -2.3 , -U.* Mel Oil Ro~ 357.8 374.5 403.0 M.I 338.1 312.7 297.1 M I 174.8 6~ ta Moal 011 ammucc 4.7 7.8 -9.4 -7.4 -7.5 -5.0 -a3.9 -22.8 Real ~or om-plocel an~ 294.3 324.9 328.8 433.7 338.4 U2.7 M4.8 259.8 252.7 9~ In Real == a R~ « 10.4 0.5 29.7 -». I -M. 4 0.8 -2.0 -1.8 3. Total £941 och &«w~ (1+2) 2341.7 2213.8 =5.2 2341.3 2=.2 2283.1 2353.0 2378.5 2430.3 8~ In 2641 "et ROVMAGS -1.2 2.2 3.4 -2.1 -1.2 3.9 1.0 2.2 4. Real Totöl Met, 9~ cs 2«3.7 207.0 2$434 2807.3 2737.3 9783.2 2UG.8 ^ 3 2979.0 0~ In ~ ut E~ = -7.8 7.5 2.1 1.5 0.0 2.4 1.9 3.3 5. 2041 x~ cot ROY=~ 218.4 247.7 251.0 377.3 U4.1 =.3 308.9 319.3 334.7 8. Real T~ Up Och et Interock, (4-5) 2447.3 2=.4 2301.2 2420.0 2443.1 2488.8 2519.0 2564.0 2844.3 9~ in 7~ R**1 z~ möl -9.7 . 8.2 1,2 1.0 1.0 2.1 1.8 3.1 7. Roal 9~ I~ t~ 343.7 287.2 348.5 353.9 359.4 383.0 388.4 374.0 379.8 0~ In Rma 6~ -18.4 20.8 2.7 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.5 8. Real 0~ 8~ m 889.1 ONJ 80.4 M.4 1000.0 1=.0 1058.8 1082.8 1115.2 9~ in Real ~t ~ tu 0.0 1.8 8.3 2.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 9. ~ 0~ Comm~ eft 321.7 333.3 328.5 342.8 342.8 342.8 348.0 349.5 353.0 G~ in ~ 9~ c~ ~ = 3.7 -3.9 8.9 -0.0 -0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 10. Roal Tot4a Rosidmal Up (D-7-$-9) M2.8 609.7 819.1 741.1 741.1 741.2 754.8 757.9 798.5 0~ ta ~ R«~ h~ es -21.6 17.1 -9.5 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.4 5.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11. Roal Ra Deficit 0-3) 422.1 241.3 377.0 358.0 449.1 ~.0 474.9 504.8 548.7 ~ laot, Foniff ~ In 298.4 113.5 185.4 171.8 in. 5 53.0 38.7 43.5 55.7 Roal #et Dm«Uo ä~ nc U3.7 127.7 191.8 184.5 324.7 445.1 438.2 481.3 492.9 WP doflator 0.874 0.941 1.00 1.084 1.212 1.313 1.427 1.531 1.831 - 98 - APPENDIX D HISTORICAL FLOWV OF FUNDS Descrintion of the Flow of Fund Accounts: D.O1 The latest sources and uses of funds accounting framework used for Tunisia has nine accounts. These accounts are linked together and are composed of four basic economic management accounts--those for the Central Government budget, the Central Bank, the Balance of Payments and the Financial Institutions- - plus five complementary accounts, the National Accounts, Public Enterprises, Private Enterprises, Households and Other Administration Accounts. D.02 Based on financial statistics available from official sources, and more specifically for the purpose of monetary policy analysis it was necessary to disaggregate the monetary system into Central Bank and Financial Institutions. D.03 The flow of funds accounts for each of the nine agents mentioned above consists of a current account and a capital account and each account satisfies a budget constraint "Sources - Uses of Funds* equation for each agent. In addition, the accounts show the variable that are included in the model. A characteristic of the flow of funds accounts is a double entry accounting system in the sense that each variables appears twice in the identities (as a source of resources for one account and as a use of resources by another account). The savings variables are exceptions, because they are in both current and capital accounts and therefore they appear four times rather than twice in the identities. The accounts are generated in nominal terms, but constant price national accounts are subsequently derived. D.04 An essential property of the Sources and Uses of Funds approach is that the intersectoral flow variables appear as "Sources* in one account and as "Uses" in another, thereby ensuring the internal consistency of the data. W See M.de Melo, Docit., for a more aggregate flow of funds-based model. - 99 - D.05 A Sources and Uses of Funds projection such as that illustrated for Tunisia is particularly useful for medium-term financial programming since it puts the basic "economic management accounts" (such as budget, BOP, and monetary accounts) into a consistent accounting framework which also includes the national accounts, public and private enterprises and households. This accounting framework also helps to see the implications of the assumed targets and exogenous circumstances. The Accounts: D.06 Central Bank Account: The central Bank is identified as a separate account because of its important role in holding international reserves and creating money base. The Central Bank of Tunisia is assumed to have full control over monetary policy. The capital sources of Central Bank are composed of total change in money base and not government transfers. All financial interactions between the Treasury and the rest of the Tunisian economy take place through the "Compte Courant du Tresor" of the Treasury at the Central Bank. Given that there is only one Compte Courant du Tresor at Central Bank, transactions budgeted for different years get normally mixed into the same account, therefore there is always a discrepancy between net Central Bank credits to the government as measured by the Central Bank statistics and Central Bank advances which appear in the budget. D.07 Central Government Budget: This account is based on the economic classification of the Central Government budget from the Tunisian Ministry of Planning. See appendix B. However the budget is disaggregated in more detailed identities based on : i) direct taxes received from private and publ enterprises, financial institutions and households; ii) indirect taxes on trade and local production; iii) profits received from the Central Bank. Additionally, on the current expenditure side interest payments on borrowing for financing the budgetary deficit is broken down between foreign and domestic interest payments. - 100 - The latter is disaggregated into interest payments on national borrowing from households, on borrowing from financial institutions and other borrowing from other public administration. Budgetary savings, which is the difference between current revenues and current expenditures, is obtained from the economic classification of Central Government budget. On the capital account side, the budgetary deficit can be financed through: i) foreign borrowing; ii) government bonds which are sold to the general public, iii) borrowing from domestic financial institutions; and iv) credit from Central Bank which can be financed by the local currency counterpart to a drawdown in net foreign assets or by an increase in money base.VJ In Tunisia, given the large size of external debt, the government sets a fixed level of foreign borrowing in order to reduce the burden and the cost of foreign borrowing. D.08 Financial Institutions: This account which is the aggregation of total banking system in Tunisia consists of: Deposit banks, Development Banks, CENT (Centre d'Epargne National Tunision) and CCP (Centre de Cheques Postaux). Tunisian Leasing Companies are not included according to the new classification of the Central Bank statistics. Therefore investment banks and specialized savings institutions are aggregated with deposit money banks in order to create a single comprehensive account for the total Financial Institutions Account. The total deposits from households hold by the Financial institutions include as well time deposits as demand deposits.w D.09 Households Account: This account is defined residually in order to balance other sectors. El Note that while this channel for central bank advances to the government exists, as stated in the main text, it is assumed to not be resorted to by the Tunisian government on a policy basis. In all projection years, therefoie, central bank advances to the government are assumed to be zero. MI For a more detailed description of each bank account please see appendix B and the flow of funds technical note available from the authors. - 101 - D.10 National Accounts: Usually the "origin and use of resources" table of National Accounts data is a tabular presentation of the equation [GDP+M-X-C+Ij and there is a consolidation of the current and capital accounts; However in the Tunisian flow of funds, the National Accounts have been broken down between the current and capital accounts in order to show in more detail savings and investments by different agents. D.11 Other Public Administration Budget: Given that the Central Government budget do not include Social Security and Local Administration budget, the "other administration" account is used in order to match government investment, consumption and value-added to that of the national accounts. D.12 Public and Private Enterprises Accounts: The productive sector is broken down a consistent way between Public and Private enterprises in order to distinguish the composition of investment, value added, wages, saving and profits in the Tunisian economy. As noted earlier, this distinction permits a separate analysis of the private sector investment behavior. Consequently, private investment is defined as a function of the expectad rate of return and the relative cost of borrowing while savings are derived as residual. D.13 Rest of the World Account (Balance of amens): In the current account sources and capital account uses the interest payments on foreign debt and the not foreign borrowing have been disaggregated between Central Government, Public and Private Enterprises, and Financial Institutions, based on information provided by the World Bank Debt Reporting System. In the Balance of Payments flows include Public and Publicly Guaranteed debt, net short-term capital flows, net Non-Guaranteed MLT and net credit from the IMF (which is part of Net Foreign Assets). The capital account projections, meaning the financial requirement, in order to finance the current account deficit is based on RMSM debt module. Since the RMSM debt module calculates the foreign borrowing required for the desired change in net foreign assets of the Central Bank (including not credit - 102 - from IMF), consistency in the Balance of Payments as shown in the Rest of the World Account is already ensured. - 103 - FLOW OF FUNDS TABLES 一104- 1必如么認e91 鄴口仕日UF馴潤C,，中中：C勵柑劇匹劉越蹴•以口矓 口口口口圈目目目審目口目目口目目細化巳口口口認口目目口目口口口話目唱口口目目口讓口目口口禺口口口臘口 細鱸個19開調07 1900 C娥讓口霧州闖以口物 憫口目口口團寫口口口鑒口團口認居口目口目 閱嗎口口65。10鵠。開96。討 粈實ro朧。1膩比膩颼露劉蹴讓萬n紹O『C馴叮，取螂膩•9。00,6。ao11。馮O X齡他瓊驪劉縫啊口吃B絮0口讓鸞．取鱸膩5鳥。00 50。80之磚．50 切必個返功鑰豳闈閑鸞〕偶辦么20。10論。00訕。ao U田細es。1056。父鷓。a0 劉膩跚1詣r臘網你黝偶S心。閱鳥心。ao75．父 CS勵山釀闐頗p關州濺煙10。幼U．知17。70 劇Jl劉通以寫閱訂留 口騰膠目目口口目口口弓口禺團間閑 織刃鵝鰓U.aol．。601。夠 口豳口開頂朧團啊馴騙名9。的6O。的51。e0 C班口認頂C點團目口〔跚1總。005毒。0097。00 個州鹹田頂n馴勵個頗他C劉口國鯽朋，a,10亂e0一為5。鳥O 餌鸞C口奮OU吃劉區寫凶開劉騷口絮OC日忽．30一鳥忽．方0一矗9。70 硼雙U。幼1．。601。90 觀庭他C屆越購田X屆啊取戲視．攔細瞭唱O響C勵一172.0010•。00造5為。00 劉矚川遞功頸亡徊戲誰〕C為屆團么20。10認．005為。30 F以黝C出團認頂C日屆馭魷口訌O開越胞觀認＋一1屹。10開．00 299。70 馴寫絮C越吃劉必劉螂膩口壯中n望0馴寫，U劉口鸞6.00之為。00一開。00 紹絮口讓劉醒匹，越膩口叮中n望0刊•。蠶開鸞。幼。00鷓。000。00 耶鸞C觔吃劇矚三越矓口觔中n實OF頂。n個鸞。認0．念O一1認。鳥O一之開。10 ，蠶勰個1開6幼名71幼0 哉濺他日哉口蘿謀縱U。Dl勵睦口 個口口口目口馴目口目目自口騙口口 口jX劉么以期閱朋11鳥念．70 1161。忽0 11開。忽0 容劉X萬O甲袱闖離馴綢寫才鳥，。卹閱心。10 856。讓0 總劉X萬膩開離651。00 703。00的2。00 口細江編勵越膩以閱唱nC卹細越閒開．a。e0的。70弘．ao 認劉X憲C方斗n劉必廳闐。忠90。的名56．閱306。•0 劇jX絮紙U綱螂11為名。70 1161。為0 11n．加 105 - le Jul 1989 2 ............. ST= er IWA Ra ca 37.60 145.00 499.00 81= ca c= li To GOV. -25.00 -1.00 -70.00 8= CD CMMIT 10 ffl .UT. 151.00 X77.00 177.00 a= cs C= IT TO Fm. nm. 979.70 840.30 557.20 1986 1987 1988 --------------------------------- --------------------------------- MW~ CA~TIM ---------- 8 ca IWA (US 0 46.60 174.97 580.23 CM= 1:9 ST= OF CD MFA (US -103.85 128.37 405.28 nm ~ im ca wA (us s) -241.94 115.84 348.49 VALUATION zam (US ø 38.09 U.53 58.77 lem= R= og CD ØYA -0.05 -0.18 0.12 1985 ---------------------------- --------------------- a= -------------- CAUM 80~ 1130.00 ------------------ 81= M mm mm 733.00 SM nymr W-" 833.00 Ca~ am DC~C 299~ 100.00 8= CD CIA~ AM. 397.00 CAPIM u= 1130.00 ------------- or IWA YM eg 209.00 87= CB C=IT TO WV. -31.00 8= CD CMMIT TO ru.=r. 133.00 8= ca C= T 10 FM. INST. 819.00 81= OF ca lØFA (US 250.45 - 106 - 1a Jul 1989 1 TUNISIA ~L0 øF FUND: CENhRAL GOVERMMENT SUGET VNAM 1986 1987 1988 :'TRENT ACCOURTS U00CES 1952.10 2064.00 2256.90 TOTAL TAX REVENUES 1389.60 1426.60 1535.60 TOTAL DIRECT TAXES & OTHERS+ 454.60 414.60 413.60 DIRECT TAES ON PRIVATE ENTEURISES 138.38 124.38 124.08 DTRECT TAME o PUBLIC ENTERPRISES 81.83 74.63 74.45 DIRECT TAME oN FINAECIAL INSTITUTIONS 22.73 20.73 20.68 DIRECT TAXES ON HOUSEL 213.66 194.88 184.39 TOTAL ET INDIRECT TAXES + 935.00 1012.00 1122.00 TRADE TaXES + 322.60 340.00 391.40 IMPORTS TAXE 318.10 332.00 383.50 EXPORTS TAXES 6.50 8.00 7.90 TOTAL OTRER INDIRECT TA1ES * 812.40 672.00 730.60 OTRER IND.Ta ON IODUCTION 463.60 508.70 532.10 OTHER IND.TAES ON IMOTS 148.80 163.30 198.50 OIL REVENUE + 312.80 352.30 403.00 PROFITS FRM Ca TO CG 54.90 44.30 78.50 TOTAL OTEER GOVERHNT REVENUES 194.80 240.80 239.80 OTHER GOV.REV.FRM PUBLIC ENT. 178.80 224.80 221.30 OTHER GOV.REV.nm OTpER PUB AM 10.00 16.00 18.50 USES 1952.10 2064.00 2256.90 CENTRAL GOVERMENT CONSUPTION + 1058.50 1130.10 1225.50 CENTRAL GOV. SALARY & WAGES + 777.30 836.30 905.00 CENTRAL OVT cOmS OF GOODS & SERVICES * 281.20 313.80 320.50 TOTAL GOY.INTEREST PATHENTS + 189.20 233.00 251.00 GOVERMENT DONESTIC INTEEST PAYMENTS * 91.18 116.26 100.37 INTEREST ON NATIONAL BORROWING 0.00 2.99 2.42 INTEREST ON 00 yINANCIAL BEo ING 35.20 41.70 47.61 INTEREST ON 00V OTE ORRO ING 55.98 71.58 50.34 OVERNMENT FORZIGN INTEREST PAMENT8 + 98.02 116.74 150.63 IOTAL OTHER GOV.CURR.EEPENDITURES + 291.00 274.40 309.30 TRAN~Fit 710 BUDGET TO FUIL.EKT. 133.50 111.00 135.10 TRANSFERS F~0 DG~ET TO 88 63.30 62.90 68.40 TRANSFERS B10 DUDGET TO OTE PUB ADM 94.20 100.50 105.80 GOVERNMENT BUDGETARY SAVING + 413.40 408.50 471.10 CAPITAL ACCOUNTS SOURCES 790.00 854.10 856.40 GOV.CAPITAL RECE11TS + 7.80 20.60 8.30 GOVERIMENT BUDGETAR SAVIM + 413.40 408.50 471.10 T3TAL GOVER~MENT + 369.00 227.00 377.00 t,VERNMENT NE DØIETIC BORRONING * 108.10 120.18 191.60 ;OVERENT NET BORR.RH FN.11ST. 82.30 112.80 39.20 1ATIONAL S0RRMING 31.50 -8.00 74.20 - io� - 1е а,�г 19в9 а ивr сн�гкалт, аагк cs®кt т�т в. оо ао , оо -ве. оо отавк onv, naгao3tsc юоааонкво -11.7о •1о.7г 1а7.ао �г Ра�вко� вааавоигво + аво. во 1ав. еа 18s. ла (l8В8 + 790.о0 8Sб.1о 8iв.b0 aavвsta�т пw�тroaar + aoo.so а7о.го аов.sо тогаt, вет �► тадваР�s лвn t;�га ав9.3о звз.9о 3os.9o ивт ctov aasP талв�s s иинs т® sа.за зе.1о so.9o вВ'r cidg сАР �� кrов� то �lв.вNт з97.о7 аав.11 з7о.9а N8? t3qV СИР2lAL ТаА118Р�8 !0 СВ 2.з0 •о2.а0 �49.70 1i8'! tв�t. LОАв8 i0 РIв.I118т. а7.8з 148.99 1за.7Т OIRECT ?АХ ЯаlI03 P�18LIC ffiдl�РвI888 0.18 0.18 о.1в PRIVAtB ffi�PRI8B$ О.з0 О.з0 0.30 Рц1АlaCTAt. 2ввУIlUl2овВ 0.03 O.oS О.о3 �.Dв 0.47 О.оТ о.41 VAMlВ 1988 1987 198в -----------•----•--------••^-----•----••---•---------------••--••----- Ht�Bltill �ОСВ8� CA1.olП.ATIONB •--••-•----•----••-••-•--•---- sraac аР оrл+к �га ва�аигвв tas s� гвrа.ов зlов.зs also.ol сваво� и, о�огvк � nгвт акаас сив а� 3o3.za азэ.е3 аз.вт в� � sx cвFt � nввт с� в� aae.s9 1гв.во zls.sв vаi.илтго9 � сив 8) 17в.вз зоо.9s -171.9i гыт�ват вАSв а9 сэоvт Pn� 9ввт о.ов o.os о.ов 108 - 18 jul 1989 1 Tmaxå nm oF ræt Fiumm ammim V~ 1988 1987 1988 -------------- . --------------- ~. ...... .. ------- --.. ......... cumm ACC~ 80~ 431.400 477.600 518.221 IMMMI Og ØV YD~ UL BORRO~ 35.M 41.700 47.809 FM MT. lut~ y= m 386.200 435.900 470.612 FIN.INSTJEMM? R=IM ~ MV.M . 271.8U 299.814 331.427 YMDW.MWM ~M MM P~ T U4.374 136.288 139.188 u= 431.400 477.800 518.221 TOTIAL INTEM PAY~ 211.650 226.722 US. 480 INTMW PAMM Te Cen.UM 54.000 50.800 24.500 FIN. DW. ~ u nn~i Mram + 33.250 34.8M 37.894 DEMIT nr~ ~ VIN. nW 124.400 141.100 183488 ri comstNu~ 98.720 113.748 152.851 DIR= T~ m Fnimcul. imT=im 22.730 20.730 20.60 FÅ~ To CAP A=UM (M NWIT) 98.300 116.400 119.410 CAPITAL ACC~ som= 478.400 491.400 433.600 ---------- TOM Ca~ le SEMM RESC~ 28.300 123.300 101.900 URT OM. LOAM 10 m . l=. 37.8M 148.987 133.772 FIXMLIM DW.MT F~ a DM . + -9.528 -25.687 -31.872 Ca~ IN ~ ITS 200.000 468.400 322.200 BOUSM= MES~ in ?1 87.900 39.100 292.800 mw cz~ am cæn To m. nw. 180.ZOO -139.400 -283.100 u= 478.400 491.400 433.600 Gova~ HET bm.nm PINJaw. 82.300 112.900 39.200 CE~ is Fi cami? 10 ENT~ an 3«.800 371.100 439.500 PMIC MIRMUS =T =ZMC DM. 108.000 31.000 39.000 MVAn ffl9RMIM BET =MMC 254.800 340.100 400.500 =AL C~ in RYA Fl 27.400 -19.500 2.700 FLOW Ca~ IN Fl M 39.400 0.500 0.300 VALUAlloff ca Pi WA -12.000 ~20.000 2.400 CR~ 19 11 DOMIN= RES~ -8.100 8.WO -45.400 RemnuL Cs =IS~ am 0.088 0.052 0.029 NO~ m BOER~ irra= RATZ 0.092 0.094 0.094 mumm ØVT SOF~ M INT=W RAn 0.049 0.052 0.052 NO~ m BORR~ INTEREST am 0.DU 0.094 0.094 mm~ DaWIT INT~ R= 0.045 0.047 0.047 no~ CAPIM Fiff m am 0.148 0.158 0.158 - 109 -- 18 Jul 1989 1 TMB 188 1987 1988 T0TAL 8TOCUB I HILL.DTRAU CAITAL SOURCEB 558.900 6040.300 6476.300 FINANCIAL InST 0REo DEBT 429.872 481.438 442.579 10CK OP ffl 0AS TO FM.INST. 441.728 513.462 654.221 81TCK TOTAL SECIAL FEG 871.600 994.900 1096.800 TOTAL DEM0BITS 2978.900 3447.300 3789.500 1OTAL SOCK CAPTAL Acc~UTS 738.700 757.800 1052.800 ST0CK cB CEDIT 10 FIN.IST. 979.700 840.300 557.200 CAPITAL U8EB 5588.900 6040.300 6478.300 TOTAL FIN DGEMTIC CEDIT 10 GOVEMMA T 796.800 909.700 948.900 TOTAL D=fISTIC CREDIT T0 ECONO 4680.100 5031.200 5470.700 TO=AL DTIC CMEDIT TO UBLIC m uT. 1457.000 1488.000 1527.000 TOTAL DOIBTIC CMIT TO 0RIVATE ET. 3203.100 3543.200 3943.700 TOTAL STCK OF NPA FOR Fin.iNT. 19.200 -0.300 2.400 CETRAL AK1*=188ITC EEER~ES 2.800 99.700 54.300 一110- 認拋11朋•1 劉卹認跋F馴細留F口魷慼：州沁叩口臨U細州X口口話 儲口目團圈口目騙圈細開口閑開頗口 閑瀾觔個1網61鶉11閱e ．•仲．•．．一細•－．勵．..．唱b••唱口’•’•‘•華．個•個•’•，•．.’自．•一，.．•••••’••．，•，d自•細•．．•．.-．•．．二•一勺•．.，••．•，口細■••．•••••••．,．•．■一••，••．．■．■•．•••．•’• Cm細馴露麒勵鬨開閉 抑口認視禺口呂口凶團口〔口名國口認認口瀾寫開口呂認目 閱壩口開55幼。10 6007。O必6幼：．訂 C馴劉魁工以神。斗山鱸望斗勸偶日＋777，〕08忽6。討905。00 切洶讓劉呃江加邊n開劇必越U鰓也勵O騙el。開鱸。50107。忽O 切日紅扣規廳屆O以個物10。加U．幼11。70 細騙日點觀個開開O，馴園曉C勵吃口頃越馴物＊幼鳥。忽17為，。鴃1061。76 撇閱以鹽個開唱留跑萬功幼個顫劉細馴U離8 1615。ge之010。6619毒9。7鳥 以州闖認X緣廳震州鰓奮臘荊n開。跚日鸞U為。為01心1。101開。念9 觀跑他開訂緘瀾勾讓別。仁rU團中細◆名79．盞0忽91．加鳥名鳥。00 個劉頃曆口細n口個寫以口觀鸞O日日邸。30日忽。的60。40 華規劉崔煙以抆口頃颼口熔”O,X訪151e。11 1611。祕齣開。名5 以屆個間唱狗C鰓州閱寫口仕日（F頂網魷跚n）開．30 116．鳥01幼．心1 寡臘仕膩磁吃O口劇賺廈q點二取閱螂抓萬00。00念。開a。鳥a 斕開開名之。1060訂。開開細念。之7 。〕口才鸞細跋唱口細馴觔日口闖啊馮才1，。開1以。66 19鳥。方9 細膩個訂口山d為前闖n取寫．為訂i。之日闐06。認5飄09。35 越鸞他凶口，口細，戲劉日日4細。鱸36。71幼9。之6 總償唱口蔔開細亂頗隊騰口．名口鳥。1忽e50。15 959。才7 0鱸紅劉必膩沁闐開憎 認口口口圈團劉目呂口呂口團團口目呂口開名口目 閱纔編訪778。開917。es 1085。17 日頃細勵蔔馴細亂鯀隊購。＊694。13 050。15開9。訂 他鸞口O甲C冷，t勵U個，口個‘L測口日勿一。忽O忽9。10父。的 口際認划區個鰓矚話＋32.20念8。60 45。00 訌田熔778．胎911。es 1065。11 口頸開寫〕q叫團”〔蠶18。00弘。00 91,00 C勵蹴跑〕劇口閱口n日之00。00磚6e。鳥0認雜。幼 點鸞X口點區咸滅獸細n口31。一6 .007心。20 閱曉圍圍馴啗抑江團方X卻n煙，回壯＋3紹。00名71。00丰弘。00 肱刃馴馴Uq細刀『兩口露回壯頂F一7。加ag。102屹．60 幼認細啊勾U細萬即口萬口區幼1頂啊U開‘蠶馴鸞。10．之一1奉．63一弘。幼 18 jul £989 1 teas 1987 1988 ------------------------ --- -------- . ----------------------------- mm STO= in KML.Dnm -------------- 80~ 9413.87 10687.12 12018.21 --------------- 81 OF m NMTB 94%3.87 10887.12 12018.21 As= USES 9413.87 10»7.12 12018.2t - ----------------- ni i il. ~ 851.00 705.00 802.00 mm D~ TS 2978.80 3447.30 3789.50 n i ý- rý er MTICM sc~ wa 31.50 25.50 99.70 "M B= ar CAPIM or en 3284.60 3804.38 4244.50 =AL ST= CaitAL A~ s 738.70 757.80 1052.80 8= <W m BMTT IN MVA= UT. 1729.17 1947.15 2049.71 Bouen= camm ---------------------------------------- ca= IN Eg cAprta 8= 407.12 519.78 440.13 sous~ DU= nmEs~ 382.00 377.00 354.00 CAUM om YM ne CAP 51= 135.12 142.78 88.13 ca« ø gIm,ll OF m M= in m En 320.93 217.98 102,58 =m~ nmsmm in MV.En. 79.23 -14.85 -54.83 CA~ om pm n m ~TT 241.70 232.83 157.39 cm= IN RTM i m a ZMTT in 71 75.90 19.10 295.00 BOUSE~ lovs~ In 71 87.90 39.10 292.80 cAnm «n cm n m= -12.00 -20.00 . 2.40 mm m CMUL GAU 364.82 355.40 245.92 INTØM am CIN MTIOML BOFSOM 0.10 0.10 0.10 V~ 1985 -------------------------------------------------- 81= er CMTAL 01 an 2787.48 B= ST= cp æv mm a L= TO EN 0.00 ST= MTIma sciumm 0.00 - 112 - 18 Jul 1989 1 TUNISIA F~AN aF PUND: NATIONAL ACCOUNT YNAME 1986 1987 1988 CUET ACCOUNTS SOURCES 9897.00 10892.50 12268.00 TOTAL INEORTS 0+ + 2671.00 2892.50 3635.00 GR~SS DCESTIC INC~E (GOP)HP + 7026.00 8000.00 8833.00 VALUE ADDED PRIVATE ENTEPRISES * 3577.07 4142.20 4439.49 VALUE ADDED PUBLIC ENTERRISES 1644.93 1904.81 2041.52 TOTAL ADMINISTRATIVE SALARES + 889.00 941.0å 1030.00 CENTRAL GOV. SALART & AGES + 777.30 838.30 905.00 CB SALART AND HAGES 10.20 12.20 17.70 OTHER PUBLIC AM SALARER a w~0ES 81.50 92.50 107.30 TOTAL NET INDIRECT TAS + 935.00 1012.00 1122.00 USEB 9697.00 10892.50 12268.00 TOTAL CONSUM~TION + 5885.90 6428.70 8982.00 TOTAL PUBLIC AlM CNUMTION + 1215.90 1306.70 1420.00 Ca SALARTAD WAGES 10.20 12.20 17.70 CENTRAL GORERNENT CONSUPTIOm + 1058.50 1150.10 1225.50 CENTRAL GOT. Bamwy & WAES + 777.30 838.30 905.00 CENTRAL GOUT CS OP G0DB £ SERVICES * 281.20 313.80 320.50 OTBER PUB AM COKoSMPTION 147.20 144.40 178.80 OTE PUBLIC AM SALAR= & WfA 81.50 92.50 107.30 OTHER PUB AM CONS 0Fav 00S & SERICEB * 65.70 51.90 69.50 TOTAL IRIVATE CONS~mTIN 4870.00 5120.00 552.00 HoufEimL CONSMPTION * 4571.28 5006.25 5409.35 FI CONUMPTION 98.72 113.75 152.65 TTAL EKEORTS 0+118 + 2161.20 2796.10 3639.70 TOTAL SAVINM IECL.OREIU 1649.90 189. 70 1846.30 GROSS ATIONAL SAVI + 1090.20 1588.00 166f.00 0VEnHENT A SAVI= + 413.40 408.50 471.10 OTER PU AM SAVINE 30.80 48.38 200.10 SAVINGS ar PUBL.EUTEPRISES -27.83 284.97 59.83 CENTRAL BANK SAVIUS -20.10 -12.00 -54.30 sous ~ SAVIna * 894.13 850.15 989.27 CURRENT AcUNT DEICIT + 559.70 81.70 -19.70 - 113 - 18 Jul 1989 1 vuAm 1968 1987 1986 CAPITAL ACCOUTS SOURCES 1649.90 1869.70 1648.30 TOTAL SAVIM I .CLEUIM 1649.00 1669.70 1646.30 USES 1649.90 1680.70 1646.30 TA. GROSS InuVEsET + 1649.90 1669.70 1648.30 PUMLIC ADHMINISTRATIRN IVESIT + 342.80 329.30 390.40 GOVER0UMT INVESDENT + 300.50 270.20 346.50 OTHER PUB AM IRVBESDENT 42.30 59.10 52.60 PRIVATE ENTEREa SE INVESNEWT+ 376.60 341.30 434.80 PUELIC MÎTERM m a CmI Il SOCK + 568.50 622.10 456.10 sn emDECT INMESDEmT + 362.00 377.00 354.00 一1 14- 劉頂XS絲響肱細OFF纔中：O劉觀讒劉昨鳥罵閱矓颼齣油縫觀網日纔關叮 口團圈網目曰圈他口名口目■■口■•。•目騙口•目閱目口開目呂目開••口口口口認口口寫目目口口目二二團讓口口驪目目目口口口口口口口目口自口口 馴，鱸個調開認徑71開e C也騙觔叮州膩勵口啊滷 目頗網悶喘口，悶目目目唱目卹認劉 印個口唱調寫。．0幼二7一肥。婦 t盤山臼劉口口劉膩劍屆抓口啊黝仇日閱劉An開9心。名0 100。一05。•0 耶鸞亡馴矚，劉口口no闖一a。一6.7一．。之6 萬膩）劉斗處你煩界qn鰓遞州寫臘潤觀吃55．一1.5一。a心 U馴物1開。eo之0日。7一95。鳥0 爛閣讓00娥瀾粤．n口總執園織利B越觀16。0016。一e。幼 O劉迎讒劉”江加滷n開彰山膿n遠為織向譚名1。50紹．50 101。念0 m閣暱，個越別d滅日OF馴闖開‘勵常叮C寫6s。7051。卯60。幼 婉田讓，個越網亂鯀吃要口ao。弱鳥e。讓8之00。10 口牌萬劉么麒鄴閱開唱 審口口口口口口目目目口圈口目圈口 閱口亡開盞0。60蠱0。3一00。10 O煙田讓，口為謝劇牌n悶30。60斗0。a參200。10 U田細忽0。60毒總。忽一0。10 中團瞑閱B為屹開〕他團認國屹4a。忽O弱。10結。e0 C徊口區以神。馴魚國屹認馴斗匯）叔騰O一11。70一10。一為1‘加 俗酒痲開總1開61開7認開 名劉X寫O暱口區償寫。以齣唱11c馴寫自）叔頸O鳥鵝。一73。父日認。10 萬百劉口U口徊潤禹鴉偶On江視00打取翅頃）叔認烽0。110。150。11 閑他系口01開纏 日（中日劉X膩切閱矓口口甲取閱州妝開6餐，70 & . - 11S - 38 1и1 1988 1 TUNIBIA PLOii ОР Рр9А: PAIVATB �Р828В8 8UDG8T V9AN� 198в 188т 1988 ClAitiElГt ЛОСр11t1Т8 SОцдС� ЭS7Э.9т 41эт,в0 44э4,49 YALt18 A4DBD PRIVATB SNT8RPA2$В8 * 3377.07 414�t.a0 4439.49 118! PAiilФt 8НlV.& ?RA1i8. t0 PAIV.BNT -9.10 -4.80 -3.о0 PaiVA28 �РlBRPRIB$8 211V.INT.RвC8I17 -3.10 -4.60 -3.00 !�$8 3Sтэ.87 41эт.во 44э4.49 WAtiB PA7t�l8 ОР PRIVATE $N't8ltPцIB� 1615.98 201о.66 1949.74 D�t.? ТАХВ8 0� PRIVAT$ В9TSttFB288$ 1э8.э8 124.эе 1а4.08 Рага.вNr. РСв8Iс9г гl1т8RB8r PAl�ia 4 э1.вт э1.оs аs.ав Рт.г�т.тиrв�т ав�ггтв Ряааи rav.aыr. гт1.8з г99.в1 ээl.аа PR2VAT8 ЕПТВ9Р�2$8в PRAPIiB 1518.11 16т1.89 аооэ.а3 САР2lAL А�Т8 � sтв.во sоl.эо 4эа.во PRIVAl8 8NT$BF�I888 l�ВТ PGR8IФ1 BQ�tEt.+ ав.sа -аZ.9т а8.9т р9г{►Атв В928SРагв88 11вт Dа�8тгс ю�t. аsа.во эао.lо aoo.so NDPI IК РН2УАl8 8NT8�PAI888 12.8о т.30 a.so FaIVAtB 8l�Р CAPITaL Я8I А 01�R8 1.93 31.э1 а9.в8 � таvвsалвнтв zн Рsгv.выт. т9.аа -14.вs -sа.вз г� этв.во воl.эо аэ4.во Рвlvагв в8т�Рывв I�пгвапвзыs + этв.во эаl.эо аэа.ео 116 - Ie jul loog 1 V~ IGGG 1987 lees -------------------------------------------------------------------- wm S~ is "=.DI~ CAPITAL W~ 5374.83 5949.76 8519.20 ----------------- PRMATE Ermmm mmm mw 430.28 437.96 493.10 31= Or =AL MVATE ENT. MUIT 1741.47 1968.60 2002.40 37= wri zo PMATE M . 12.30 21.45 32.00 ST= op 0 £wilt IN PMATE ENT. 1729.17 1947.15 2049.71 =AL D~MC CM IT TO PMAU ENT. 3203.10 3543.20 3943.70 CAPIM MS 5374.83 5949.78 0319.26 ------------ ~ CAPIM ST= op MY.M. 5374.83 5949.76 5519.28 PWATZ ENT. ZQUIn CAP~ ~ ------------------------------- CUM IN MM OMATR OT. MUITI 333.23 227.13 113.80 OM EMAIZ M . MUM 91.53 -7.13 -45.33 CAnTAL ~ FOR MMATE ENT. 241,70 234.28 159.13 MIVATS M. FO MT CM= ---------------------------------- c"m 19 sma op w w Fa =T 10.65 7.71 55.20 PWATS ENTERr~ Or 7~0 BM.+ 28.34 -22.07 49.97 M ZET FCR =T CAMAL LM -8.68 30.07 3.23 一117• 1．拋1幼館1 絮攤開馳劉必闢留奮中口：劉鼯鳥加勾斤口開紅口爍寫以口矓 口口團曰口目開口認口口禺口口口口目目目禺目團目口口開口口口口曰目開口口國口口口團開口口口目認口口曰口口口口口自口口劉開口口口 騖，離煙認開認訂19歸 。個•－－一，•．•，口一煙‘•－一’．•由•．．•一••••－－一購一••仰‘，嗡廖嗡．向b．申曰個自••‘■•••煙•個•個廖一••唱•，口‘自嗡．••一斕•一個••個．一••，•個勵一審••一•自 C嬌口馴屹州闖以口州 口口唱唱口圍口口勰居蠶讓口口禺目 細中口口騙1神，。191飼忽。幼幼91.7籐 切騙個A勵以中劉呃化鵝啊化斗頃訌田細16為心。9丰190心．61幼為1。騙 劉絨開辦口編n口袖寫以國矓切司他．馴鸞，幼數父111.00幼5。10 觀鸞劉編霸很國開吁二個斗口細。驚寫個細乙．馴鸞”弘。恥•Sa。弘一顫，訕 卹鼠鷥觔牌口團難綴鹽調間。頗鸞•劉嗽瀾望跚”ae。00一名亂00•40.00 價園觀巳，以乏．日離口．也雙盒觔也。勿劉國區．馴鸞。”幼，弘一舟a。弘，鳥4。名畚 U細細艙幼。7.1開寫。讓細幼朧。1. 點閱劇牌卹口話O『劉正L驚觔口庫叩紅域韓＊9訕。為17心忽。鴃10肌。16 幼n團乏繁鄰騵峰O細劉鼻區加劉膠編口悶劍歸01．幼7為．6忽7心。矗5 O認觔爛口口細＋導認．閱為斗．,0為0讓．00 司他•寫調鸞。州寫口取細萬開1卹唱實寫閔關娥物＋吋。論功6。為蠱認念．忽6 實頂。X細吃。萬膩n•！緝初肱讓耳網唱方劉朋奮”邸L．馴鸞認化。認7認6•幼139。1s qn口視以汗．屆認霄．寫州觀劉囉鳥認臘望。17參，e0越為．ao乞認1。忽O 劇牌萬取爾牌劉爾馱馴吃口開訌目認唱Lea造觔。訂開。開 口jX劉編以闐以細為 口口目口纏口口口口口口口開口目口目口口 馴潤劍訪媲516。10鴃忽。70為66．鳥O 劇牌1臘鑰你馴頂L勵吃他卹解啊鑰唱7。ea開為。訂驢。幼 馴囉工認騙「，田離IH．俘細觀才口觀媒個神馴騙匯。一忽O。開唱日。輪‘1鯧。15 劉囉也認啊樣口開魷田壇觔寫實馴方矚國qC馴萬以。10亂00呂1。00鉑。00 餌鸞償胄C冷登他騙劉鉀祖細‘軍p口鹽驚刊寫．細鸞，01 oO7aa必。11 a7亂啊 屆離C口『，越．寫越匯C寫鸞幼跚啊警口．馴鸞。1..00幼。000.00 細緬X〕劉曉工認劉啊豐戲蘊軍口軍口1幼。80開。00開。開 劉囉江鷥朋鸞口牌rU工編取矗價啊華輝0．恥10。蠱心亂開 抑劉熔訂6.10弘：.70 466．心0 劉囉鳥認觔仕口甲訌自寫鑲甲鳥口口細調織馴蠶◆5開。開口越。功鳥歸，10 口馴矚口頂幼馴讓唱5。10為．。物•1,a。10 劉瞬瞧驚眾仕庫庫釭驢萬開n唱舞國颼e0亂閱訂讓。鳥05•1．弱 閱馱口j萬劉必耳率零瞋們閑◆7。60幼。開．。a0 118 - 18 Jul 1989 1 Twisu now oF FwD: m? op in w~ VME 1988 1987 1988 ----------------------- ------------------------------------------- CURMW ACCOUNTS SOURCES 2933.46 3181.58 3981.58 TOTAL IMRTS + 2871.00 2892.50 3635.00 TOTAL XNTEREST PAY.Om imieø am. 282.48 289.08 348.58 GOVERman FOREIM INTERMT PAYHEM + 98.02 118.74 150.83 PWL.EKT. FORSIGN INTZBES? ?AW~ + 99.52 108.44 132.26 PRIV.ENT. Pælag UTEREST PAY~ + 31.87 31.05 25.98 YILMT. YORSION UTEREST ?AI~ + 33.25 34.82 37.89 2933.48 3181.58 3981.58 TOTAL male= G+MFS 2181.20 2798.10 3839.70 m FOR.IMM? RECEIM OF CM.SåM -9.00 -8.30 17.40 TOTAL m wow= Ramr~ + 279.30 397.20 434.00 NET orm FACT.MV.ATRAMEM -57.74 -87.14 -89.84 T~ n~ zamT nrmast a=m -31.10 -43.80 -45.00 PMIC ENTERBRISES 10V-INT.RECSIPT -28.00 -39.00 -40.00 PRivArs zuTamsm nm.m.mm m -5.10 -4.80 -5.00 OTHERS FACT.MV.a n=. 10 PØL.SKT. -28.84 -43.54 -44.84 CGREM ACCOUNT DEFICIT + 559.70 81.70 -19.70 CAPITAL ACCOUM SO~ 407.00 178.20 280.30 ---------- CLWW ACCOUXT DEFICIT + 559.70 81.70 -19.70 TOTAL FLOW CHANGE in "FÅ (BOP) -152.70 98.50 300.00 Fim cm= in CB NET PORSIM AUETS + -192.10 98.90 299.70 FLOW CHANGE in Pi NFA 39.40 0.50 D.30 um 407.00 &78.20 Z80.30 TOrAL MT PORSIGN BORRWING 249.13 31.35 100.75 COVERM T mm FOREIM Boffik~ 280.90 106.82 185.40 rUBLIC ENT=Mag M -Iffirm am. + -30.59 -28." -102.75 FRIVMM ENTERPRIM MT FORRIM BM.+ 28.34 -22.97 49.97 FINANCIAL MT.UT FOREIM BaRR. + -9.53 -25.89 -31.87 NET DIRECT FORSIM Z~ Ti~ & GRAM 155.30 105.10 140.00 NET DYRM v FORSIGN IMVEST~ + 12$.10 78.50 95.00 øm in PULIC ENTERMM 110.80 69.00 85.50 ØDFI IN PRIVAIZ EMMERISES 12.30 7.50 9.50 OFFICIAL GLAM + 32.20 28.60 45.00 TOTAL CAMAL RZI & mm 2.57 41.75 39.55 一1 19- leJ騙1 19891 頸鱸個1開61•e71開e ,--－一•－-－一賽口－－一旬•．•－.．••個自．•，，發編•．．口一編•■個••個口個•個•－．•一個個•一•．••．•一月口一唱•總口口一•－一，•一參。‘．個個•－．■．••－- 鸞飲編日啊口細鑲也誌．m馴隨口 口目自唱口自目團口國口國園口目口目 口謬徊鸞編閱遞口個心輪心。越弘騵。。，60e鳥。．5 劉狗他日劉X膩口劉灘矚X償訕鯀吃購04開O。7a騷論。a7開舫。鳥5 劉寫他日劉X寫留辦么56．幼1心鳥．70父1。心0 細劉X膩卹辦么戲跑一7。001為5。00 49•．00 劉跑他日州X膩付驢矗閱視，〕．1觀遞。10．一O。ao忽。鳥O 劇jl劉必U田細4驢為．胎545名‘0760•心。屆5 劉颼他劉嗡暱X顱m煙實日眾口驪禹801。8華紹51.,0 5170．幼 n訕鰓他刈么認觀劇唱頃耳個刀幼鸞待認9.01為總1。鳥鳥4為2。騙 C朋劉觔二煙寫奮網闢讓鸞馴囉口加總以闐鄴壯寫O之11，。10,0碼6。弱認160。幼 劉叮鳥加觔吃口口越煙細劉誰口加綢馴聾口個紅購01幼6.601念es。為0 1061。的 楓X馴悶個朋絮勵開颼名訪方切讓認鑰亡啊迂為導0．鵝為讓7。開心卹。16 望婉歸日劉X蠶楓謬11幼．00 206。17為06。71 日劉X蠶初n頂劉縫劉返寫朋鸞。U．忽0忽1。馮5，念．69 日劉X寫劉謬X〕劉叮龜認朋鸞。110。791•5。•1訂鳥。0忽 州越化認65 ‘■•■．•．．••，•《••．，•，目，•．•‘•．勵•••．．■••‘•．•’•’•．••．..．•．•••劇■•■•■口，，•．•，•••，•．•．•j•‘•．.&．••．•．•．，個•．．哺• 觀跑必自啊中細我口口頂朧騙．pU團編 編國口臨團目圈團口口目口口團口口口認圈論 劇牌X劉羈U口細 馴濾他戰劉口O細勺口鸞名默口騙a7加。s0 Fn劉驪汕臨X驪迂，劉萬口加鑰劉訕匯）龍開口忽7名。50 口調江越．個寫口U啊口吃州讓口觀細馴萬頃口紅挪口忽Oae.SO P口活Icn吃口回紅田矯州萬矚X口馴萬讒）紅認O訂0.90 取訌馴的個煙仕口口紅田細劉萬口X曲馴方團）他觀0 aal。eo 劉寫肌日劉X蠶細方X 0.00 呂劉X寫初Fl謀麗X功幼鷹朋鸞。0。00 B劉X蹴切Fl調劉細Llc顫實。0.00 闐O霧’t劍閒略aO蠶21越勰斤細刀膩細酒 00叩”t馴口5 do點X誠離開露名蹴口紅 00館”t織mgao霹加1離間讓颼閱X跋以鄴閱 00&t&！劇細口dOU功刈瀉r區佻州觔區紙闖 0麗寥．言O必0！•零O舛0．需騷網純勵網電訌牌 00吋”99！忿O開t&eg•常0帕6.!99需TU健幼州U悶個產凶閱•臘細 闐00’驢0蓄0000.C討t的00’叩g言名臨勵編。閱總叨以萬 0000．帕Ct 0000中勰忿t 0000．驢魷甚嗡馴啊n必煙攔口囉應劉口》戲潤，以絡 闐00．弓必奮0000”朋寥0000”帕言馴口贓症闖絕颼口國圍鵝闐啊戡寫 幼L0.06開0&0觔觔to&0總01期鬥口紅認O口鵝讓抽酒口註螂們 tgto.o一g館0.0日屆甲視日馴口勿〕閑蠶視個叮司『萬幼劇閱颼 館霧0 .0！•to&0．雪魷0&0寫劉間日U織曲了尼驢d颼沁n 嚇t0.0加右0•0！肌0.0一當•90&0個勵用日騵韻藝中趨鑪 0館•．OC館口”09神《•0當觔C•”0點甲徑劉師神呂勵區個舀下瀆川驢 6關0&0開《0 .0雪矓露0.0討令0&0驪01州甩細ld的 gt必0.0卹必0.06朧•0.0令觔LO&0鎚O 必口購’00姆必’0雪俗幼．0•9必必’0點化田細仰口口O閱口既細抓 館9當’0館令g,0驢忙’0勵也101劇團沁劇騙訌沁劇滷目1 00零O&00鯧O,00闐O,O呂潤開絨口n名個朋纏』O寫觀隨日嬰觀幼 •弱言綢e!9曲6！侈0戲屆開鰓 《讓劇奮觸悶馴兀口蠶勵騙細寫d》馴膠口初口功 一0了1- 121 WM Intertaco t" Flown cow lose goal" Goad; Goad 10.700 scalar mm; am - ;34.000 scalar cdoqfP; odoqfP-w 9.500 Scalar OdSqfPUt GdOqtVA 0 85.500 1 scalar costv: casto - 0.000 scalar cfttcb-. cdotob -49.700 scalar adatacb; odntoob - 299.700 scalar ocapob; coapob a 34.300 scalar adebos; adebog - -69.000 scalar adebap; odabopm - 0.000 scalar adabaft; adabotl - -283.100 scalar cylob; cylab - 17.700 scalar oprob: %mob - 78.300 scalar aft adm - 51.800 scalar odmah; cdmah - 97.000 scalar adveaft, admtL -45.400 scalar andd; onabd 24.500 seal= cmbt, onobt 17.400 scalar outhh; outbh 239.260 scalar cylall cylat 107.300 &*our coal; Goal - 69.500 scalar coal; coal - 200.162 scalar cial; clot - 52.900 scalar adnftn; aftfati 0.300 scalar ocaptL; oeapti 2.400 scalar acti-, octi a 152.651 scalar cpvti; Wfl - 119.410 scalar antib; ontib = 163.286 scalar antit; antit - 37.894 scalar cdW; adbdp - 400.500 scalar adbdpu; adbdps 39.000 scalar adtdb; adb& - 322.200 scalar odeqbft; cdeqbti 292.600 scalar adbffi; cdbffL - -31.872 scalar cupd; cup! - 331.427 scalar cupid; cupid 139.186 Scalar OYU; cyfl - 518.221 scalar coaybb; ocapbb - $6.126 scalar coaft; coaft - 157.393 scalar ocapp; ocapp = 150.129 scalar ocapt; ocept - 5.228 Scalar cdothh; cdothb - 50.900 scalar adotpu; cdotpu - 374.028 goal= cdotn; cdotti - 133.772 goal" onaft; onedo $0.342 scalar and; ongd - 100.373 scalar onat; onat - 150.627 SCSI" cog; Cos - 320.500 scalar vis; *is - 346.500 Scalar ossol; agool = 105.800 scalar Cash; cash - 68.400 scalar oppu,# caspu - 135.100 scalar oyls; cyl& - 903.000 goal" Cam; Guys - 2M.900 - 122 - scalar obdot; obdet 377.000 a scalar adbdgfi; edbdBti 39.200 ; scalar adbts; dbts 185.388 ; Scaer cas; can * 471.100 : scalar adnatbor; ednatbot a 74.200 ; scaler adbdso; odbdSo - 147.202 ; scalar cyks; cykS - 8.300 ; scalar coil; coil * 403.000 ; scalar corol; coaW*To * 18.500 scalar osm; cosrp = 221.300 scalar oysdt; oydt * 413.600 scalar otdfl; otdfi = 20.680 scalar otdbhb: otdbh a 194.392 scalar otdp; ctdp a 124.080 scaler otdpu; otdp a 74.448 scaler citexp; oftesp a 7.900 scaler ditimp; CtUMp - 383.500 scalar citoth; oitoth * 532.100 scalar cittar; oittar * 198.500 scalar org; cy a 2256.900 scalar cob; cob = 5409.349 scalar cab; cab * 989.287 scalar o1h; oth * 354.000 scalar cipu; Cipa a 591.800 scalar oip; alp * 434.800 scaler odat; odat * -133.700 scalar cp; oYP a 4439.485 scalar Cyp; o7pa = 2041.515 Scaler oygit; eygit * 1122.000 scalar cupt; Oapt a 25.985 scaler cnttp; ottp a -5.000 scalar odeqb; od&p * -54.833 scalar cprp; oprp = 2003.250 scalar cdt0p; cdbtp a 49.972 scalar cotfp; cotfp - 29.661 scalar onput; cput a 132.255 scalar cspu; espa = 59.831 scalar caftpu; caftpua -84.839 scalar adbfpu; edbtpa -102.74; scaler cotfpu; ootfpu a 9.887 scaler cg; aeq * 3635.000 scalar cq; oq - 3639.700 scaler cyip; cylp * 1949.743 scalar cy1pu; cylpU a 1061.757 - 123 - Gaus intertace for ~ Otor pamotors 190 soala oslpu: oslpu m 0.0200 ; soala oo; olo m 0.5480 scalar oeo, oeo a 0.287 soalar oplu; opis • 0.0714 uealer oping opla u 0.0629 scalar og; 00 0.8600 5 scaler os; og 0.015; gcalas oso; o80 0.0580 *la~ ogoo; ogoo -0.0161; scalu oopiso: oepiso - 0.0783 i scala odepk; odep 0.0800 scalar o~l6; oq18 - 275.0000 sosla oq14; ogig 1394.0000 1 soalar opo; ospo - 0.0935 ; solar orpuoospuo 0.0935 : goalr orso; oo u 0.0523 solar o~tdo; odo 0.0474 so~aar osubo; o~nbo = 0.0950 scalas orgue; orp~o 0.0935 soalar oahp; ouhp - 1.1500 I scelar oss: oas 1.5000 scla oq; osv " 1.5000 smular otq; ote • 1.5000 - 124 - GMO STOCEB socalar abdso; bdgo - 475.498 ecalar ~qk; gqkg - 4007.887 soalar 8#h; a*h - 3804.377 molar oqkp; ap - 5949.764 soalar gpu; sapu 8495.412 scalar qwi; Seqif= 757.800 scalar sottl; sotti u 513.482 sola: sotb; sothb n 91.400 soalar soboep; sobeap o 356.600 calar abra; abrs - 3048.500 acalar mantab; »ntaob 145.000 ecala: =ntut; outot. t -0.300 sela: stdh; atdh - 3447.300 calar sbdti; bdSfI 909.700 calar abdp; sbdp o 3543.200 mola: abdpu; abdpu - 1488.000 ola: abdq; abdq =5031.200 mcala: arefi; arasti 99.700 mela: abftt; obitt - 481.438 scalar se~p; se8 p - 1947.146 mola: em; as - 804.700 mola: mmmlb; mmmh =705.000 mola: mnato:; anatbor - 25.500 scalar sqfp; seqfp • 21.455 cla seqpu; seep - 185.311 emala: sbos; seobs - -1.000 ecala: sobopu; sobm~u - 177.000 calar seboti; soboti - 840.300 calar obtp; gbtp - 437.964 moalar abfp*; ebfpu - 1285.400 mola: ser; sam x 994.900 - 125 - APPENDIX 9 EQUATIONS OF THE TUNISIAN NACROFRAMEWORK - 126 - EQUATIONS OF THE TUNISIAN MACROFRAMEWORK Production Accounts 1. g a (Y, + ych + 1c+ + Yam + Yin+ (-YAU) P, - GDPoj / GDP. GDP growth rate where: g is GDP growth rate Y, is private enterprise value-added You is public enterprise value-added TL is government labor payments Ygit is net indirect taxes GDP. is lagged GDP (constant 1988 prices) P. is the consumer price level P04p is the GDP deflator Y,ab is Central Bank labor payments Yet is other public administration labor payments 2. P,g, * (YP + You + YLg + (Yg1t)P)/(P.b (Q+4Qpu) + Pa (QL@ + Qlab + Qel) + Yyl) GDP deflator where: Peop is the GDP deflator Pnb is the net producer price in the base year (1988) Pct is the government wage level in the base year (1988) QLV is the quantity of labor employed by the government Q, is the quantity of private enterprise value-added Q,, is the quantity of public enterprise value-added Q.b is the quantity of labor employed by the Central Bank Qjes is the quantity of labor employed by other public administration 3. Ps = Pq - (10)(Ps) Net price definition where: P. is net price of domestic ,ood Pq is gross price of domestic good 10 is intermediate input-output fraction P. is price of composite good 8118 - 127 - Private Enterprise Accounts 4. (ALO) (Ar s"**") (Qp/QLp) 1' = W/Ps Private enterprise labor demand where: ALp is the private enterprise labor share parameter Ap is the private enterprise scale parameter Q9 is the private enterprise value-added quantity QLV is the quantity of labor employed by private enterprise S, is the elasticity of substitution in the private enterprise production function WL is the nominal wage rate 5. YLV (- N) (QLP) Private enterprise labor income where: YL, is private enterprise labor income 6. Qv a Ap [(AL)(QL)9P'/9 + (Akp)(Quv.)*P '9P + (Ak.)(Qkg.+k,.)**/** ] Private enterprise production function where: Ayp is the private enterprise private capital share parameter Qkp. is the quantity of private capital coming into this period Qk,. is the quantity of government capital coming into this period Qkp. is the quantity of public enterprise capital coming into this period Ako is the private enterprise other capital share parameter 7. Cip - (IO)(Pa)(Qp) Private enterprise intermediate consumption where: Ci, is private enterprise intermediate consumption 10 is the intermediate goods input/output coefficient P. is the composite good price 8. YV - (PU)(Qp) Private enterprise value-added where: all variables previously defined 9. PDEP a (Ps) (DEPk Oupe) Private enterprise depreciation costs where: PDIP is private enterprise depreciation costs DEPu is capital depreciation rate AL-IS - 128 - 10. PRp - Yp - Y - (rpo)(Bdp) - (Nvp)(e) Private enterprise gross profits where: PR, is private enterprise gross profits rp. is the private enterprise borrowing interest rate coming into the period Bdp. is the stock of private enterprise domestic debt coming into the period Npr is private enterprise net foreign payments on foreign debt and equity e is the nominal exchange rate 11. SP = (1 - tv)(PRp) Private enterprise profits after taxes where: SP is private enterprise net profits tp is the tax rate on private enterprise gross profits 12. CAP - Qkp*(Ps-Pso) - PDEP - Bfpo (e-e) + (dOGfv) (e) + dCAPv Private enterprise capital gains where: CAPv is private enterprise capital gains P. is the lagged composite good price B#p, is the stock of private enterprise foreign debt on entering the period e. is the lagged nominal exchange rate dOGfp is the flow of foreign grants to private enterprise dCAP, is a private capital gains error term (calibration only) Future Private Capital and Labor Demands 13. Q = A: [(Aop) (OL,)P'9P + (A;9)(Ok)4P-'/8 + (ACg)(Qkg + dQug + Qkpud + dQkpu)op lp/p-l Expected next period private enterprise value-added where: Q; is expected private enterprise value-added A: is expected private enterprise production function scale parameter 0.p is the optimum next period labor demand Okp is the optimum next period private capital demand Qkgg is the depreciated government capital stock dQkg is real government gross investment Qk,pd is the depreciated public enterprise capital stock dQkpu is real public enterprise gross investment At, is future expected private enterprise labor share parameter Alp is future expected private enterprise private capital share parameter AC. is future expected private enterprise other capital share parameter &lots - 129 - 14. (Atv)(A6)*P-'/8P (Q;/0Lp)'/s= WU/P: Optimal private enterprise future labor demand where: WE is expected next period wage rate P* is expected next period net producer price 15. (ACv)(A*)"P""/$ (Q;/0kp)'/aP= Rpe Optimal private enterprise future private capital demand where: R*p is expected cost of private capital 16. dQkp aOkp - Qkpd Private enterprise real gross investment where: dQkp is private enterprise real gross investment Qkpd is depreciated private capital stock Private Investment and Credit Demands 17. R:, - (rv + AC - Pi* + DEPk + (Pi:) (DEP)] PS Definition of the expected cost of private domestic capital where: rp is interest rate to be applied next period on domestic private credit Pi is expected next period composite good price inflation AC is an adjustment cost parameter rkp is the expected cost of private domestic capital 18. Ip a P,(dQp) Total private investment where: I is total private enterprise nominal investment 19. dB4p = Ip - dEQhp - (dBip + dEQrv + dOGep) (e) Private enterprise domestic credit demands where: dBip is the demand for domestic credit by private enterprise dEQbp is new household private enterprise equity dB#p is new private enterprise foreign credit 4EQrp is new private enterprise foreign equity dOGfv is new private enterprise foreign grants and others Public Enterprise Accounts 20. YLp, = (WL)(QLpu) Public enterprise labor payments where: Ylpu is public enterprise labor payments QLpu is the quantity of labor employed by public enterprise -13fl - 21. Qpu = Apu [(ALVu)(Qtpu)s'/9Pu + (AkpU)(QkpUO + Qkgo)SPUL18" + (Ak0)(QkP,)sP4-1/SP] SpU/1.Spu Public enterprise gross output where: Ap, is public enterprise production for scale parameter ALpu is public enterprise labor share parameter Akpu is public enterprise public capital share parameter Ake is public enterprise other capital share parameter Spu is elasticity of substitution for public enterprise production function QPu is quantity of public enterprise value-added 22. Cip. = (IO)(P.)(Q,.) Public enterprise intermediate consumption where: Cipu is public enterprise intermediate consumption 23. Ypu = (Pa)(Qpu) Public enterprise value-added Where: Ypu is public enterprise value-added 24. PRP, Ypu - yTpu - (OIL)(Px) - (rpo)(Bdpuo) - (put)(e) Public enterprise gross profits where: PR,u is public enterprise gross profits OIL is quantity of oil payments to the Government rpo is the public enterprise domestic borrowing interest rate on entering the period N,u is net public enterprise foreign payments 25. Spu = (1-t,)(PR,u) + (GSpu)(Ps) - (OGRP,)(P,) Public enterprise net profits where: Spu is public enterprise net profits t,, is tax rate on public enterprise gross profits GSpu is real government subsidy to public enterprise OGRp, is real public enterprise other payments to government Public Enterprise Investment and Credit Demands 26. Ip (P,)(dqp,) Public enterprise nominal investment where: Ipu is public enterprise nominal investment dQkp. is public enterprise real investment $leis - 131 - 27. dBdpu = Ip, + dST + (Ykg)(Ps) + Wtpu + dEQ#pu + dOGtpu) (a) + SPU - (dOTpu)(Ps) - dCBCpu Public enterprise domestic credit demand where: dB4p. is public enterprise domestic credit demand Ykg is real public enterprise capital payments to government dBrp. is new public enterprise foreign credit dEQfp. is new public enterprise foreign equity dO0Grp is new public enterprise foreign grants d0Tpu is quantity of public enterprise capital subsidies from government dCBC,u is new public enterprise central bank credit dST is change in stocks Household Accounts 28. Yh YLp + YLpu + YL9 + Ylcb + Ylal + (rtso)(TDh.) + (rub,)(NB.) + (WR)(e) Household gross income where: Yh is household gross income rtd. is the interest rate on deposits coming into the period TD. is the stock of household deposits coming into the period rab is the interest rate on national borrowing coming into the period NB. is the stock of national borrowing coming into the period WR is net worker's remittances 29. Ybt = Yh (1-tyh) + (GSh)(P,) + Sp + Sra - Nthh Household disposable income where: Yhe is household disposable income tyk is the tax rate on household gross income GSh is government subsidies to household Sri is net profits on financial institutions Ntbb is net transfers from households to other public administration 30. Sh - Yud [SB + MS (API) a9p (Pi)] 1 + (API) exp (Pi;) Household savings where: Sh is household savings SB is a baseline savings rate MS is maximum additional marginal savings rate API is a sensitivity parameter adjusting the sensitivity of the marginal savings rate to composite good price inflation Pi: is expected future composite good price inflation Note that the sum of the marginal and baseline savings rates varies between SB and (SB + MS). - 132 - 31. Ch = Yhd - Sh Household consumption where: Ch is household consumption 32. CAPa (Ah)(CAPp) Household capital gains where: CAPh is household capital gains Af is household share of private enterprise capital gains 33. Requ [ (SP + S + CAPh) / EQh, -P1. 1 (1 + P,,) Real return on household equity where: EQh. is the stock of household nominal equity on entering period R.q. is the real return on household equity Household portfolio balance 34. Wb a Wo + Sh + CAPh + (dOGth)(e) + (dOTh)(Ps) Household nominal wealth where: Who is household wealth coming into this period Who = EQho + TDho + MAhe where: MAh. is household money assets coming into this period TDho is household time deposits coming into this period EQh. is household equity coming into this period dOGrh is new household foreign grants dOTh is government capital subsidies to household 35. rir* = (rtd - Pi:)/(l + Pi:) Expected real interest rate on deposits where: rte is the interest rate to be applied next period on time deposits rir* is the expected real interest rate to be applied next period 36. armo = (Aq,)(g+g.) - Pi: / (1 + Pi:) Expected shadow return on money where: srm' is expected shadow return on money Aq, is a sensitivity parameter g. is lagged real GDP growth rate - 133 - 37* Re;h = Reqb Expected real return on household equity where: Ra is expected real return on household equity 38. RAR zro (1+rir'l shp- + Heq (1+Re - ) 80I8p1 + go& (1+srmo saps (I+rir.) (1+R(eqo) (1+sra*o). Harmonic mean return on household assets where: HAR is the harmonic mean return Ho, Heq* Hma are distribution parameters (shares) for time deposits, equity, and money assets, respectively BTO + Heq + E,a = I Shp is the elasticity of substitution between assets (based on their relative returns - measures risk-return and liquidity-return tradeoffs) rir is the expected real interest rate coming into the period Re'h. is the expected real return on private domestic equity coming into the period arm: is the expected shadow real return on money coming into the period 39. TDhe + dTD - (Wh - Bdgh. - dBg - NB* - dNB) (R/BAR) (ijri )saps (1+rire) Stock demand for time deposits where: dTD% is the change in stock of household deposits Bdgho is the stock of government other domestic debt on entering the period dBdgh is new government other borrowing dNB* is the stock of national borrowing on entering the period dNB is new national borrowing 40. dlQbp + d+Qut + EQh* + CAPh = (Wh-Bgh-dBd#h-NBa-dN) (9oq/RAR) (l+Re.f) sbs .(1+Regh.) Stock demand for household equity where: dEQap is new household equity in private enterprise dEQbfi is new household equity in financial institutions EQu. is stock of household equity on entering the period 41. K&ho + dNAh = Wh - TDh. - dTDh - EQho - dEqh - CAPh - Nbo - dBagh - NB. - dNB Stock demand for money assets by households where: dMAb is the change in stock of household money assets Mau is stock of household money assets on entering the period - 134 - Money Demand Equation 42. M. + dM = MAh + dMAh + (TDhe + dTDh) (RETD) Total stock demand for base money where: M. is the base money stock coming into this period dM is change in the base money stock RETD is the reserve requirement on time deposits Central Government Accounts 43. (Y9dt)(P,) - (tyh)(Yh) + (tp)(PRp) + (tpu)(PRpu) + (t,s)(PRtj) Government direct tax revenue where: Yq,d is the quantity of government direct tax revenue tr, is the tax rate on financial institutions gross profits PRfe is gross profits of financial institutions 44. (YI)(P) = (t4)(Pd)(Qd) + (t.)(P.)(Q) + (t)(Px)(Qc)2 Government indirect tax revenues where: Y91t is government tax revenues in quantity terms td is indirect tax rate on the nontraded good Pd is the price of the nontraded good Q4 is the quantity of the nontraded good t. is the tariff rate on imports P. is price of imports Q= is quantity of imports ts is indirect tax rate on exports P. is price of exports Qx is quantity of exports 45. Yu =[Ygs + Yvi + OIL + OGRu . OGR J (P) + PRob Government current revenue where: Y. is government current revenue PRab is central bank profits OGR., is other public administration other payments to central government 46. YLv (QL) (W) (WD) Government labor costs where: QL, is quantity of labor employed by government YL9 is government labor cost WD, is a wage differential paid by the government - 135 - Government consumption of goods where: C, is government consumption GFC is government real consumption 48. Is - (Pa) (dQkv) Government nominal investment where: I is government nominal investment (exogenous) dQkg is the change in the government capital stock gross of depreciation 49. Eg = YL# + C, + (Beqrj*)(r9e) + (NBe)(rabo) + Ngoo + (Ngf)(e) + (GSh + GSp. + GSci) (PS) Government current expenses where: N9o. is other government interest payments Eg is government current expenses Bgtj. is the stock of government debt owed to financial institutions on entering the period ryo is the interest rate on government financial institutions debt on entering the period Nve is government foreign payments GSea is government subsidy to other public administration 50. BDIF = Ey + I# + (dOTab + dOTa + dOTa + dOT, - Ykyj (P.) - Yv Government budget deficit where: BDEF is government budget deficit dOTab is quantity of government capital subsidies to central bank dOTei is quantity of government capital subsidies to financial bank 51. dBagts a BDEF - (dB##)(e) - dCBC, - dBvo - dNB Government financial institutions credit demand where: dBagei is government financial institutions credit demand dB, is government foreign credit demand dCBC, is government central bank credit demand dBe is government borrowing from other public administration Other Public Administration Accounts 52. Sat - dBa,g + lei Other public administration saving where: Set is other public administration saving let is other public administration investment - 136 - 53. (Gst)Px + Nihb + Ngdo = Set + Yjai + Cc + (OGRa)P. Other public administration current account balance where: Co, is other public administration consumption 54. Yle, = Qlat (WDel) (WI) Other public administration labor payments where: WDei is other public administration wage differential 55. Ict = (dQkct) Pt Other public administration investment where: dQkcj is the gross change in the other public administration capital stock Central Bank Accounts 56. dCBCrs + dCBC, + dC3Cpu + (dNFAdb)(e) + (NFAcbo)(e-eo) + dCAPeb - dM + (dOTcb)(P.) Central bank capital balance sheet where: dCBCfi is new central bank net credit to financial institutions dCBC, is new central bank net credit to government dCBCp. is new central bank net credit to public enterprise dNFAeb is change in central bank net foreign assets NFA,b. is stock of central bank net foreign assets on entering the period dCAPob is a valuation error term (calibration only) 57. PRab = (CBCt.)(rcbo) + (Nebt)(e) + (NFAcb,)(e-eo) + dCAP,b - Ylab Central bank profits where: CBCti. is stock of central bank credit to financial institutions on entering the period rboe is the interest rate on central bank financial institutions credit on entering the period Yteb is central bank labor payments Financial Institution Accounts 58. dBdp + dBapu + dB9s + (dNFArt)(e) = (1-RETD)(dTDh) - dDRS + dCBCFs + (OTti)(Px) + (dBers)(e) + dEQti - 137 - Financial institutions capital balance sheet where: dNFAi1 is new financial institutions net foreign assets dDRES is an error term on financial institutions net domestic reserves (calibration only) dBr is net financial institution borrowing 59. Ye = (B4vtj.)(r9.) + (Bope)(r..) + (BdPU.)(rpu.) Financial institutions gross income where: Yei is financial institutions gross income 60. PRri = Yti - (CBCf,.)(rcb.) - (Nfir)(e) - (TDh.)(rroV) - Cti Financial L%stitution gross profits where: PRs, is financial institution gross profits Ntir is financial institution net foreign payments Cfi is financial institution consumption 61. Sfi = (PRti)(1 - tti) Financial institution net profits where: Sri is financial institution net profits 62. rTD = (rTo/rp*) (rp) Relationship between private enterprise borrowing rate and deposit rate where: rTV is deposit rate determined this period (applied next period) rp is private enterprise domestic borrowing rate this period (applied next period) Composite Good Accounts - based on CES function 63. Q./Qd = (am/ad.)az (Ptd/Pt.)sa Imports to nontraded goods ratio where: Qu is quantity of imports Qa is quantity of nontraded goods a., ass are distribution parameters for imports and nontraded goods respectively Ptd is after-tax price for nontraded goods Pt= is after-tax price for imports s. is composite elasticity of substitution between nontraded and imported goods 64. P.Q* = Ch + C, + Ci, + Cipu + Cri + Cet + Ig + Ip Ip + lei + dST Nominal balance for composite good where: All variables previously defined 65. Ps = ((A)82 (Pt.)'-O + (A.)ss (PtO)'-881'1-88 Composite good price index where: All variables are previously defined Domestic Product Transformation Accounts 66. Pq (Qp + Qpu) = P4Q4 + P,Q, Nominal balance for domestic good (gross value added) in terms of nontraded good (d) and exports (x) where: P. is price of exports Q. is quantity of exports Pd is price of nontraded good 67. Qq ((d) (Qd)+q/tq + (ax) ()1+q/"tq/t"q Input-Ouput Relation for Domestic Product Transformation where: adng ax are distribution parameters for nontraded good and exports respectively tq is elasticity of transformation of domestic good into nontraded and exported goods 68. Qx/Qa = (a8x/a,)" (P,/Pd)oq Ratio of exports to nontraded goods produced from the domestic good where: All variables are previously defined External Accounts 69. (Pt5) (Qm) = (P) (Qs) - (Ptd) (Qd) Definition of imports as difference between absorption and nontraded good production in nominal terms where: all variables previously defined 70. P. - (e) P=F Relation between domestic and foreign price of imports where: P.F is foreign price of imports (foreign currency) - 139 - 71. Pt, = (e) PJF Relation between domestic after-tax and foreign price of exports where: P%F is foreign price of exports (foreign currency) Pt. is domestic price after-tax of exports 72. (TRD) (e) a (P.) (Qw) - (Ptx) (Q,) Trade deficit where: TRD is the trade deficit in foreign currency 73. CAD = TRD + N#, + Npr + Npr + NtIr - Neb - WR Current account deficit where: all variables previously defined 74. dNFAeb = dBeg + dB#p + dBtpu + dBuri + dEQ#p + dEQfpu + dOGb + dOGtp + dOG#,u - dNFA#s - CAD Balance of payments definition where: all variables previously defined Indirect Tax Wedges 75. Ptd = Pd (1 + td) Relation between producer (Pd) and consumer (Pta) prices for nontraded good 76. Pt. = P. (1 + t,) Relation between producer (P.) and consumer (Pt.) prices for imports 77. Pt, = P, (1 + t,) Relation between producer (P.) and consumer (Pt.) prices for exports Inflation Rates 78. Pi, = (P, - P,,) / P.o CPI inflation where: Pi, is inflation of composite good price PS. is the composite good price coming into this period - 140 - 79. Pigp = (Pqap - Pq4po) / Pqdpo GDP inflation where: PigdP is inflation of the GDP price index Pgp, is the GDP price level coming into this period 80. Pin O (P - Pno) / Pn. Producer price inflation where: Pin is inflation of net producer price Pn. is the net producer price on entering the period Wage and Expected Price Dynamice 81. WL = WLO (Pq - IO(P,)) / Pn. wage dynamics within period where: WLs is the wage rate coming into this period 82. W' = Wo (P& - IO(P:)) / Pa. Expected next period wage 83. P: = P, (1 + Pi) Expected next period composite price. 84. P: - P' - (IO)P: Expected next period net price 85. Pi: = Pin Expected next period producer price inflation 86. Pie = Pis Expected next period composite good price inflation