Somalia - Semi-mechanized Rainfed Agriculture Pilot Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report N.. 6494-SO STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT SOMALIA SEMI-MECHANIZED RAINFED AGRICULTURE PILOT PROJECT March 2, 1987 Eastern and Southern Africa Region Northern Agriculture Division This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by reciplents only In the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank bAhorizltion.  CURRENCY AND EQUIVALENT UNITS Somali Shilling (So.Sh.) = 100 cents US$ 1.00 (at time of appraisa? - = So.Sh. 70 (official rate) June, 1986) = So.Sh. 152 (free market rate) US$1.00 (January 1987) m So.Sh. 91.4 (official rate) = So.9h. 135 (free market rate) WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 Hectare (ha) - 10,000 in I Square Kilometer (km) - 100 ha 1 Metric Ton (mt) 1,000 kg ABBREVIATIONS ADC - Agricultural Development Corporation AFMET - Agricultural Farm flanagement and Extension Training (Project) ARI - Agricultural Research Institute ASAP - Agricultural Sector Adjustment Program AWP - Annual Work Program CARS - Central Agricultural Research Station FEA - Field Extension Agent FMU - Farm Management Unit GOS - Government of Somalia ITCZ - Inter Tropical Convergence Zone MOA - Ministry of Agriculture ONAT - Organizzazione Nazionale Agricultura Trattore (Government Tractor Hiring Agency) PIU - Project Implementation Unit SDA - Settlement Development Agency SOE - Statements of Expenditure SNR - Semi-Mechanized Rainfed T and V - Training and Visit System (of Extension) WFP - World Food Programme FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31  FOR OMCIAL USE ONLY SOMALIA SIMI-MECHANIZED RAINFED AGRICULTURE PILOT PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT Table of Contents Page No. CREDIT AND PROJECT SITMMARY ............... ....... i - ii I. *COUNTRY CHARACTERISTICS AND THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR ... 1 A. Country Charactetistics ....... ................... 1 B. The Agriculture Sector ........................... 1 C. Prospects for Rainfed Agriculture ................ 2 D. Bank Group Mtole and Strategy...................... 4 II. THE PROJECT AREA AND PROJECT FORMULATION ............. 5 A. The Project Area .......................... 5 - location and Population ***......... ...,***O.. 5 - Land Form and Vegetation ...... ................ 5 - Soils .......... ............................... 6 Climate .. .6 - Water Resources 7 - Land Tenure and Use 7 - Institutions ... o.o...o..... . .. . o...o.o... 8 - Infrastructure and Marketing .................. 9 B. Project Formulation and Rationale 9 III. THE PROJECT .. . . . . . . . . . 11 A. Project Objectives .............................. 11 B. Project Description ooooooooooooooooo*oo*oooo*oooo 11 C. Detailed Features 12 - PIU - Central Services ooo*................... 12 - PIU - Farm Development ........................ 12 - PIU - Farm Management Units ........*......... 13 - PIU - Training ..oooo.000. 000000. 000...000. 13 - PIU - Project Studies and Environment Measures ............... ...... .o..... 13 - MQA - Monitoring and Evaluation o.............. 14 - SDA - Farmer Assistance oo..................... 14 - CARS/PIU - Adaptive Research .................. 14 - APMET/PIU - Extension **0*****,*****.****.* 15 This document has restricted ditribution and may be used by recipients only in the peformane of their ofcial dutia. Its contents may not otherwiu be disclosed whout World Bank authorization.  Pae No* De Status of Engineering *.is.................... 15 Le Cost Estimates ...........o....5............... 1S P. Financing Plan ................................. 17 G. Procurement *i*s***,*** 18 He Disbursement ............. 20 It Information Systems, Accounts and Audit ......... 21 J. Environmental Impact * 22 IV. ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT ........................ 22 At General 22 Be Project Execution .... 23 - Human Settlements 23 - Settlement Development Agency 24 - Project Implementation Unit 24 - Settler Organization . ... 23 - Land Tenure and Leases .. 26 - Project Sustainability 26 - Role of Women . 26 - Adaptive Research 26 - Reforestation 27 - Livestock . 27 - Staff Development, Training and Extension 28 - Monitoring and Reporting 29 - Annual Work Programs . 29 - Evaluation and Mid Term Review 29 V. TECHNOLOGY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, MARKETS AND PRICES 30 A. Technology 30 - The Semi-Mechanized Rainfed Farming System *.... 30 - Crop Rotations ..........e..... 30 - Settlement Layout ................ 31 D. Agricultural and Livestock Production ............ 31 - Yields 31 - Production .......o. 32 C. Markets .......... o00.0.e.*0o ...... o e.o0000oo 32 - Local Demand 32 -* Market Outlets 33  - {it - Pate N. - Ikize ant Cowpeas ..................,.....*..........*.*. 34 - Oilseeds *...**.*.*.***35 - Livestock .......................,............ *. ..... 35 VI. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ..*0................*......*....*.. 35 A. Project's Financial Objectives ................... 35 D. Farmers' Incomes *3.............................., 35 C. Project Implementation Unit Finances s............. 37 - Introduction ............*.........* ** *. 37 - PIU's Revenue Sources ........................ 37 - PIU's Financial Results ..............*........ 38 - PI's Future Direction 8........................ 36 '. Other Implementing Agencies ...................... 39 - SDA, MOA, AFMET and CARS *.................*... 39 Z. Government Cash Flow 39 VII. ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND JUSTIFICATION .......000........ 39 As Benefits .................. . * 6 -. .............. 39 Be Economic Analysis ................. . *..... 40 Cs Risks .o o *.***o*** oo........... OO**. oo............ 41 VIII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION ***...o..oo.oooo 42  - iv - List of Text Tables Table 1. Project Cost Summary ....................... 16 Table 2. Financing Plan ........................... 17 Table 3. Financing for Different Categories of Works, Goods and Services 18 Table 4. Procurement Arrangements 19 Ta'ole 5. Estimated Annual Incremental Crop Areas and Production at Full Development 32 Table 6. Estimated Annual Project Crop Production, Consumption and Marketable Surpluses ..... 33 Table 7. Farmers' Estimated Annual Income and Cost Recovery Position Under the Project ...... 36 Table 8. Comparison of Estimated Incomes for Three Groups of Potential Farmers With and Without Project 37 Table 9. Required Yields to Achieve Assumed Economic Rates of Return 41 ANNEXES: 1. Financial Tables .. ........ 45 Table 1. Estimated Price Contingencies ............. 45 2. Estimated Schedule of Disbursements 46 39 Amount of Credit Proceeds 47 2. Climatological Tables 48 Table 1. Monthly Averages of Rainfall .... .......... 48 2. Air Temperatures at Kurtun Waarey 49 3. Relative Humidity at Kurtun Waarey 50 4. Evaporation Rates at Kurtun Waarey 51 3. Detailed Cost Tables 52 Table 1. Project Components by Year 52 2. Summary Account by Project Component 53 3. PIU - Central Services ..................... 56 4. PIU - Land Clearance and Earthmoving 59 5. PIU - Farm Mane-gement Units 61 6. PIU - Training 62 7. PIU - Studies 63 8. MOA - Monitoring and Evaluation .,...o...... 64 9. SDA - Farmer Assistance 65  -v- Page No 10. CARS/PIU - Adaptive Research .............. 66 11. AFMET/PIU - Extension ...................... 67 12. Items to be Financed under PPF .............p 4. Implementation Tables 70 Iable 1. Details of Technical Services Provided Under the Project 70 2. Research and Extension Activities and Methods in the Project Area 71 3. Crop Rotations 72 4. Farm Layout ............. . 73 5. Project Area Maximum Crop Yields 1982-85 ... 74 6. Projected-Ylelds ..................... ..*. 75 5. Terms of Reference 77 A. Studies .......................................... 77 B. Project Personnel ............................... 78 C. Technical Services ......... ...................... 81 Do Project Committees ................... 87 6. Settler Selection Criteria 90 7. Conditions of the Sub Lease Between SDA and the Settlers 91 8. Project Sustainability 92 9. Annual Work Programs . . . .. .e 94 10. Items for Inclusion in the Project Mid Term Review .........*.. ......... ......... ... 96 II. Management Practices Under the Project ............... 97 12. Economic and Financial Analysis Tables ............... 100 Table 1. Projection of Economic Import Parity and Farmgate Prices - Maize .............o.... 100 2. Projection of Economic Export Parity and Farmgate Prices - Maize 101 3. Projection of Financial Import Parity and Farmgate Prices - Maize 102 4. Projection of Financial Export Parity and I Farugate Prices - Maize 103 5. Projection of Economic Import Parity and Farmgate Prices - Oilseeds 104  - vI - Page No 6. Projection of Flnancial Import Parity and Farogate Prices - Oilseeds ............... 105 7. Assumptions Incorporated in Economic Analysis .......... ....................... 106 8. Farmer Income Stateptent (Current Prices) ... 107 9. Farmer Income Statement (Assumed Drought Conditions) *..*o** 109 10. Project Implementation Unit - Projected Statements of Revenues and Expenditures .. 111 11. Government Cash Flow ....................... 112 13. Documents Available In Project File .................. 3.13 ClfTS 1. Organization Chart - Project Implementation Unit ........ 115 2* Proposed PEA Timetable .................................... 116 3*. Iplemntation Schedule *........................ .0....... 117 MAPS 1. Detailed Survey of Proposed Farm Strips - Sablaale Area (IBRD No. 20001) 2. Detailed Survey of Proposed Farm Strips - Kurtun Waarey Area (IBRD No. 20002) 3. Relative Positions of the Project Areas - Kurtun Waarey and Sablaale (IBRD No. 20003)  SOMALIA 8MI-M)CKNAIZED aIUNneD AGRICULTURX PILOT PROJECT Credit and Prolect Summary Sorrower: Somali Democratic Republic poeufictirv: Ministry of Agrlculture fmount: SDR 10.6 million (US$ 13.4 million equivalevt) ___t__ Standard Cof Inancns: 'US$ 0.1 million equivalent In food commodity ald from the World Food Programme. Project Deecriotlon Objectives: This project Is a continuation of the pilot field trials started at Kurtun Waarey and Sablaale In 1981 to develop an improved rainfed agricultural technology for Somalia'ls *lm arid zones. Overall, the project aims to put in place a technical and organixational system as part of a larger strategy which includes irrigation, livestock, health and range deve4opment projects. The project iould (1) refine and improve semi-mechanixed rainfed (SMR) technology in Somalia through onsite adaptive trials; (ii) study the Institutional structure for semi-mechanized farming activities and propose a self-sustaining model for expaieom of rainfed farming; (iii) transfer skills to Soai to manage the enterprises and to farmers to use SMR farming technology through training and extension; and (iv) within the narrow limits of the pilot area, increase mallholder crop and livestock production and incomes for 400 oaliholder families. ^nefites This is a pilot project with broad potential Impact. the imediate benefits would be the provision of a settled livelihood and increased income for 400 landless fmilies ae well as Increased production of maize, sunflower, sfflowr animl foed and livestock and fuelwood self sufficlency. They would also benefit from better toads and water supplies. The project would generate inermental mploy_mt amounting at full development annually to 135,000 m days of family farm labor and 32 man years of unskilled labor. The benefits from development of an environmentally sound rainfed agricultural system with sustainable producttvity increases would enhance the prospects of Somalia's sml-arid zones. U@USk The project's economic viability is sensitive to yield levels which wuld be Influenced by drought, interruption of Input supply and lack of proper and timely care of crops. The project is designed to minimize these risks and lncluds provisions for close monitoring and assessment of eperienc gained. The risks associated with foreign exchange availability and exchange rate fluctuations, and with the maintenance of adequate producer price Incentives are being addressed by the Government, with IDA support througb agricultural policy adjustment lending.  - ii - Proj ect Components: Local Foreign Total -----US$ dillion---- PIU - Central Services 0.6 2.5 3.1 - Farm Development 0.3 1.5 1.8 - Farm Management Units 0.8 2.0 2.8 - Training - 0.4 0.4 - Project Studies and Environmental Measures - 0.6 0.6 SUB TOTAL 1.7 7.0 8.7 Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) - Monitoring and Evaluation 0.1 0.2 0.3 Settlement Development Agency (SDA) - Fari'er Assistance - 0.3 0.3 Central Agricultural Research Station (CARS)/PIU - Adaptive Research 0.3 1.2 1.5 Agricultural Farm Management and Extension Training Project (APNET)/PIU - Extension 0.1 - 0.1 SUB TOTAL 2.2 8.7 10.9 Physical contingencies 0.2 1.0 1.2 Price contingencies 0.7 2.2 2.9 TOTAL COSTS 1/ 3.1 11.9 15.0 Financing Plan: IDA Credit 1.6 11.8 13.4 World Food Programme (WEP) - 0.1 0.1 Government of Somalia 1.5 - 1.5 3i. 11.9 15.0 Estimated Disbursements: IDA FY 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 = - (US llion)-- --- -m-o- Annual 1.4 2.2 2.6 1.9 1.2 1.8 1.1 0.8 0.4 Cumulative 1.4 3.6 6.2 8.1 9.3 11.1 12.2 13.0 13.4 Estimated Economic Rate of Return: Not applicable Maps: IBRD Nos. 20(01, 20002 and 20003 1/ Taxes and duties are not included since Government Investments are exempt.  SOMALIA SEMI-IIECHMIZED RAINFED AGRICULTURE PILOT PROJECT Is COUNTRY CHARACTERISTICS AND THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR A. Country Characteristics 1.01 Somalia is located In the northeastern corner of Africa, bordered by Ethiopia and Kenya to the west and south, and the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean to the north and east. The coastline is about 3,300 kilometers and the land area about 64 million hectares. The topography Is varied and includes hot and arid _oastal plains, rugged mountains and plateaue, and lowlands of varying fertility and rainfall. About 29.9 million ha (47% of the total) is classified as agricultural area, of which 28.8 million ha Is devoted to permanent pasture and 1.1 million ha is used for crop production. Of the latter area some 50,000 to 100,000 ha along the Shebelli and to a lesser extent the Juba rivers benefits from largely seasonal, flood irrigation with low water use efficiency. Of the remaining land area, 8.6 million ha (13% of the total) comprises forests and woodlands, and 25.5 million ha (40% of the total) is generally unsuitable for any farming activities. 1.02 In 1985 the population was estimated by the Government (GOS) to be 5.8 million, growing at 3.1% per annum. The country is supporting some 300,000 to 700,000 refugees, depending on estimates. Per capita income in 1985 was estimated by GOS to be slightly less than $300 equivalent, giving a total national income of about $1.7 billion equivalent. About 60% of the -labor force are nomads and semi nomads who depend on livestock for their subsistence; about 20% are farmers cultivating land along the Shebelli and Juba rivers and in the higher rainfall Bay and North-West Regions; the remainder (20%) are urban dwellers. 1.03 Somalia is amongst the poorer countries of the world with a hostile physical environment and scattered population. It has poor communications and the physical and institutional infrastructure needs strengthening. These factors have created serious obstacles to development. B. The Agriculture Sector 1.04 The agriculture sector -- crops, livestock, forestry and fishing -- contributed about 57% of total GDP during the period 1970-85. Of this, livestock accounted for 39%, crop production 12%, forestry 5% and fisiheries less than 1%. During the 1970's agricultural production stagnated and crop production declined, so that by 1979 annual production was some 15% less than in 1970. Production, especially of crops, improved dramatically in the 1980's, although not sufficiently to recoup the declines in per capita food production experienced in the 1970s. Crop production improvement, caused mainly by area expansion, followed  -2- deregulation of the grain market and the resulting significant increases in producer prices. 1.05 Primary commodities account for virtually all merchandise exports. In 1982, the peak export year, livestock products accounted for 82% of exports, bananas 10% and fish, frankincense and myrrh the remainder. Livestock exports have since declined to about 70% of total export due to a ban on cattle exports to Somalia's main market; at the same time, the value of banana exports has been maintained. 1.06 The main issues In the agricultural sector are (a) price policy and marketing; (b) public Investment and public enterprises; (c) rural finance; (d) input supply; and (e) research and extension. The first four issues are being addressed by the Government with support, inter alia, from the Agricultural Sector Adjustment Program (para. 1.13) financed by the International Development Association (IDA) and the Special Facility for Africa. Research and extension are being addressed under ongoing projects financed by IDA and other donors. 1.07 The Agricultural Sector Survey, currently under preparation, examines these issues and highlights the new directions in which Somalia's agriculture sector is moving. These include changes towards a more mixed economy; liberalization of internal marketing for many crops and of foreign exchange controls; major devaluations in real terms of the Somali Shilling which have brought many internal prices closer in line with world prices; transfer of some state farms to settlements tied to programs for reducing the size of the civil service; and consideration by Government of divesting the public sector of some enterprises or of converting them to commercial or joint ventures. The results of the changes have been on balance very positive which, together with favorable weather, has led to sharp increases in food production, declines in food import requirements, and attraction of private individuals to production and service activities in agriculture. C. Prospects for Rainfed Agriculture 1.08 Although the country possesses an abundance of land relative to its small population, the low and variable rainfall (less than 600 mm per annum over most of the country) places considerable constraints on both livestock and crop production. The present capacity of the range is at or near the limit of animals that can be sustained. At the same time additional pressures have been placed on Somalia's land resources by the arrival of several hundred thousand refugees, many of them with livestock. These pressures are evidenced by the growing number of noaadic pastoralists who leave the rangeland to engage In settled agriculture, a process Government is assisting. 1.09 In contrast to the limited proapects for future significant growth in livestock output, crop production is likely to sustain its present momentum. This rejuvenation in the crop production sector is due first to the sharply improved incentives to increase grain production and output of some other crops. In addition, the promising results of the earlier semi-mechanized rainfed (SMR) production field trials (para. 1.10)  -3- have enabled the expansion of crop production into previously uncropped areas. The proposed project will help determine to what extent the reported 6 to 7 million hectares of potential rainfed crop land can be efficiently and effectively exploited. Augmenting this rainfed potential are ongoing investments In Irrigation rehabilitation on the Shebelli river and the more long term possibilities on the Juba River, based on the construction of the Bardhere Dam. The Bank group is assisting these efforts through a dual strategy of rainfed and Irrigated agriculture development, coupled with the stated Government policy of settling nomads (para. 1.08). It is against this background and agreed objectives that the proposed SMR Project has been prepared by Government. 1.10 A promising start introducing SMR technology was made in the ongoing field trials at Kurtun Waarey and Sablaale (paras. 2.19 and 2.20) financed under the Drought Rehabilitation Project (Credit 623-SO). Operations commenced in 1981 when a small team of consultants introduced farming techniques and equipment based on regimes practiced in semi arid regions of Australia and other countries. Important aspects of the trials, which currently consist of farming by 200 families on 1,800 ha., have been to open up new land for cultivation, to minimize the effects of the regton's erratic annual rainfall through a bare fallow system which conserves soil moisture, and to integrate small farmers into a larger, more beneficial farming system, which enables balanced use of family labor, machinery and soil moisture conservation techniques. In addition, the introduction of bush strips into the farming system has allowed conservation of the natural fauna, augmented the local fuel supply and permitted the integration of livestock and crops by providing fodder areas for farmers' animals. 1.11 Based on these efforts alone the farming system introduced has resulted in a five fold average yield increase, in an otherwise harsh, low yield environment. However the level and type of technology have remained essentially unchanged over the trials period, whilst the institutional structure has relied heavily on Government support and involvement. Thus the system aeeds further refinement and adaptation to specific Somali conditions, particularly as regards those which would further increase and stabilize crop y4elds and determine the most suitable crop rotations. Consideration needs to be given to a self sustaining organization more independent of Government and with greater farmer involvement* Nevertheless, the system has shown its potential to increase crop yields an$, hence production, and to settle former nomads as sedentary farmers on land, not previously farmed. Based largely on these successful results, the Somalia Agriculture Sector Survey will identify rainfed area expansion as a key part ofiagiy future crop production strategy (para. 1.16). 1.12 The proposed project has predominantly experimental/adaptive research elements and builds upon the achievements of the earlier trials. The area under crops would increase from 1,800 ha. to 4,680 ha. and bush strips from 600 to 2,520 ha. An additional 400 f.rm families would be settled. A new organization, managerially and financially independent of Government, warld be formulated and possibly introduced during project 1Implementatlan (para. 4.08). Government realizes that the technology N 0 developed to date needs refinement and is keen to continue developing the  SHR system. Building on the Bank's earlier support and involvement in establishing the basic technology, continued Bank involvement is now justified to ensure consolidation and refinement of the system in preparation for wider expansion. The proposed technology also has the potential to be a model for similar schemes elsewhere in the country, and in other semi arid areas of Africa. D. Bank Grou, Role and Strategy 1.13 Bank Group commitments to Somalia as of September 30, 1986 total US$302 million, consisting of 31 IDA credits and 2 IFC Investments. Eleven projects are under implementation. Over thirty percent of total IDA lending has been for agriculture, twenty five percent for transport and the rest about equally divided amongst education, water supply, ports, energy, industry and technical assistance. An Agricultural Inputs Program (AIP) was approved in FY85 and a livestock health services project in FY86. An Agricultural Sector Adjustment Program (Credit Nos. 1711-SO and A-20-SO), which has important conditionality both for the agriculture sector in general and for this proposed project in particular 1/, received Board approval in June 1986. 1.14 Project implementation experience in Somalia has been mixed. A number of agricultural projects suffered from over ambitious design, and cofinancing arrangements caused some coordination difficulties, resulting in major mid term reviews and reduced benefit expectations. Progress on the North-West Region Agricultural Development Projects has been good however, and the main production targets projected at appraisal have been met or exceeded. Projects in the roads, ports and water sectors have been more successful than in agriculture. Staffing and management problems have impeded effective preparation and implementation of some projects. Somalia's disbursement performance on projects assisted by the Bank Group has been satisfactory, being some 85 percent higher than the average for Eastern and Southern Africa. 1.15 The Bank Group assistance strategy for Somalia is to devise and implement policies and programs to improve the efficiency of both the public and private sectors, to improve the macroeconomic framework for domestic and external resource mobilization and allocation, to improve pricing policy and marketing systems, and to increase production and exports. The aim is to support further use of existing capacity and to help lay the foundations for longer term growth. Issues in public enterprise reform are expected to become an increasingly important component of the policy dialogue, and the intention is to support Government in its stated policy of disposing of unviable public enterprises, and in its stimulation of the private sector. 1.16 Within this general approach, the strategy for the agriculture sector, contained in the Agricultural Sector Survey (para. 1.07), proposes a phased approach to enable Somalia to put into place a largely self sustaining agricultural sector which supports overall economic growth,  -5- provides for increased food production to increase farm incomes and reduce import dependency, increased export earnings, and provides, to the extent possible, productive employment in the sector. It highlights expanded crop production as a priority in Somalia's future agricultural growth strategy to be achieved through the expansion of areas under semi-mechanized long fallow rainfed farming (the intent behind this proposed project) and through irrigation rehabilitation and expansion. Both approaches will require sound economic policies, which include incentive prices for producers, further improvements in the marketing and input supply systems, rationalization of the food aid program, and a realistic role for the public sector vis a vis the emerging private sectoro Crop production support such as targeted adaptive research, improvements in the extension service, development of water use and drainage management systems, introduction of equitable land tenure rights and adequate levels of cost recovery are also needed. II. THE PROJECT AREA AND PROJECT FORMULATION A. The Project Area Location and Population 2.01 The project area is situated in the Lower Shebelli region and extends along the eastern side of the Shebelli River between the settlements of Kurtun Waarey and Sablaale 2/ to the southwest of Somalia's capital city, Mogadishu (IBRD Map No. 20003). Kurtun Waarey is about 140 km from Mogadishu at an elevation of 57 metres above sea level, and Sablaale is 221 km from Mogadishu at an elevation of 50 metres. Both settlements are about 25 km from the coast. The region has some 600,000 inhabitants, most of whom livu in isolated settlements. The principal towns and their approximate populations are Merca (100,000) and Afgoi (60,000). Kurtun Waarey and Sablaale have approximately 15,000 inhabitants each. The region's total area of over 1 million ha has potential for farming although a detailed agricultural characterization has not been undertaken. Land Form and Vegetation 2.02 The project area is located on the meander floodplain of the lower reaches of the Shebelli River, which contains a variety of alluvial deposits and erosion elements. The Shebelli has taken a series of different paths across its floodplain producing this complex. There are also beach remnants, part of a red, aeolian sand dune complex mostly buried beneath later alluvium. Southeast of the project area is a continuous coastal dune complex. 2.03 The pilot areas at Kurtun Waarey and Sablaale, formerly part of a swamp, are quite flat with a gentle westerly slope. With surface 2/ Kurtun Waarey lies between latitude 1