China - Issues and prospects in education

A WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY CHINA Issues and Prospects in Education Annex I to CHINA 18954 Long-Term Development Issues and Options May 1986 LFfiUJ; i g7>  A WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY CHINA Issues and Prospects in Education Annex I to CHINA Long-Term Development Issues and Options The World Bank Washington, D.C., U.S.A.  Copyright t) 1985 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing September 1985 Second printing May 1986 World Bank Country Studies are reports originally prepared for internal use as part of the continuing analysis by the Bank of the economic and related conditions of its developing member countries and of its dialogues with the governments. Some of the reports are published informally with the least possible delay for the use of govern- ments and the academic, business and financial, and development communities. Thus, the typescript has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formal printed texts, and the World Bank accepts no responsibility for errors. The publication is supplied at a token charge to defray part of the cost of manufacture and distribution. The designations employed, the presentation of material, and any maps used in this document are solely for the convenience of the reader and do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank or is affiliates concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city, area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its boundaries or national affiliation. The most recent World Bank publications are described in the annual spring and fall lists; the continuing research program is described in the annual Abstracts of Current Studies. The latest edition of each is available free of charge from the Publications Sales Unit, Department T, The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A., or from the European Office of the Bank, 66 avenue d'Iena, 75116 Paris, France. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Main entry under title: China, issues and prospects in education. (Annex 1 to China, long-term development issues and options) (A World Bank country study) 1. Education--China--1949- . 2. Education--China --Aims and objectives. I. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. II. Series: Annex ... to China, long-term development issues and options ; 1. III. Series: World Bank country study. LA1132.C484 1985 370'.951 85-17939 ISBN 0-8213-0600-6  Preface This report is one of six annexes to a main report entitled China: Long-Term Development Issues and Options. The complete list of annex volumes is: Volume 1 - China: Issues and Prospects in Education Volume 2 - China: Agriculture to the Year 2000 Volume 3 - China: The Energy Sector Volume 4 - China: Economic Model and Projections Volume 5 - China: Economic Structure in International Perspective Volume 6 - China: The Transport Sector (Note: Throughout this volume references to Annexes A, B, C and so on refer in that same order to Annex Volumes 1, 2, 3 etc.) The main report and annex volumes were prepared principally by members of an economic mission that visited China twice in 1984, for four weeks in February/March and for five weeks in April/May. In addition to Beijing, the mission went to three provinces: one coastal and relatively high-income (Jiangsu); one inland and average-income (Hubei); and one interior and low-income (Gansu). It received a lot of information, as well as numerous valuable comments and suggestions, from officials and others in these provinces, as well as from those in many central agencies and institutions, including: the State Planning and State Economic Commissions; the Ministries of Finance, Agriculture, Coal, Communications, Education, Foreign Economic Relations and Trade, Labor and Personnel, Petroleum, Railways, Urban and Rural Construction, and Water Resources and Electric Power; the State Statistical Bureau; and various universities and research institutes of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. A series of seminars was organized by the Technical-Economic Research Center under the State Council. The generous and thoughtful assistance of all these people in China contributed greatly to the preparation of the reports. The Bank mission was led by Edwin Lim (mission chief) and Adrian Wood (deputy mission chief), and also consisted of William Byrd (econo- mist), Mats Hultin (senior education adviser), Erh-Cheng Hwa (senior econo- mist), Timothy King (senior economist), Jacques Yenny (senior transport econo- mist), Umnuay Sae-Hau (research assistant), Betty Ting (interpreter), Luc De Wulf (senior economist, International Monetary Fund), Benjamin King (consul- tant on statistics), Wouter Tims (consultant on planning and agriculture); and the following teams: Agriculture: J. Goering (team leader, April/May), Tom Wiens (team leader, February/March), Lang-Seng Tay (irrigation specialist), Lo-Chai Chen (fishery consultant) and Fred Bentley (consultant on arid agricul- ture); Energy: Roberto Bentjerodt (senior economist, coal projects), Weigong Cao (power engineer), Abdel El-Mekkawy (engineer, petroleum proj- ects), Robert Taylor (energy economist), and Darrel Fallen-Bailey (con- sultant); D.C. Rao (Assistant Director, Energy Department) led the team in the field; iii  Industrial Technology: Gene Tidrick (team leader), Anupam Khanna (indus- trial economist), Reza Amin (industrial specialist), and Josephine Woo (research assistant); Location and Trade: Ian Porter (team leader), Vernon Henderson (consul- tant on urbanization), John Sheahan (consultant on industrial location and trade) and Samuel Ho (consultant on rural nonfarm activities). The following also contributed to the preparation of the reports: Wlodzimierz Brus (consultant on socialist economies), Gerhard Pohl (energy and transport), Robert Drysdale (Annex Vol. 1); Helena Ribe, Nikhil Desai (Annex Vol. 3); Shujiro Urata (Annex Vols. 4 and 5); and Lily Uy (Annex Vol. 6). Larry Westphal, Carl Dahlman and Bruce Ross-Larson organized background work on technology. Behrouz Guerami-N, Tejaswi Raparla, and Kong-Yam Tan helped with the multisectoral model, the input-output table and data for international comparisons. Ann Orr, Kenneth Hill, Moshe Syrquin, J.V.S. Sarma, Kenneth Cochran, Chang Hsin, Liu Ying and Cai Jinyong undertook research. Linda Mitchell and Terrice Bassler edited the reports; and Helen Kung assisted in their processing. The reports also benefited from comments of a review panel consisting of Anne 0. Krueger, Luis de Azcarate, Kemal Dervis, Janos Kornai (consultant) and managers of the East Asia and Pacific Regional Office. In addition to the main report and annex volumes, the following background papers have been prepared and are being issued as World Bank Staff Working Papers: 1. "The Asian Experience in Rural Nonagricultural Development and its Relevance for China" 2. "International Experience in Urbanization and its Relevance for China" 3. "Alternative International Economic Strategies and their Relevance for China" 4. "International Experience in Budgetary Trends during Economic Development and their Relevance for China" 5. "Productivity Growth and Technological Change in Chinese Industry" 6. "Issues in the Technological Development of China's Electronics Sector" 7. "The Environment for Technological Change in Centrally Planned Economies" 8. "Managing Technology Development: Lessons from the Newly Industrializing Countries" 9. "Growth and Structural Change in Large Low-Income Countries" The main report, other annex volumes and background papers are available from World Bank Publications, P.O. Box 37525, Washington, D.C., 20013 or from World Bank distributors listed on the last page of this volume. Prices will be furnished upon request. iv  Table of Contents Page No. SUIMMARY ............................*--..---.---. ix-xv 1. BACKGROUND .................................................. 1 Recent Developments .. 2 2. UNIVERSALIZATION OF BASIC EDUCATION ..... .................... 5 Recent Developments in Primary and Secondary Education .. 5 (a) Enrollment Trends ..................................... 5 (b) Staff Utilization ...... .......................... ...... 8 (c) The K-School Philosophy ............................... 9 Issues for Basic Education Strategy ........................ 10 (a) Aims of Basic Education ............................... 10 (b) Demand for Basic Education ........... ................. 12 (c) Application of the K-School-Concept .. ................. 15 (d) Management Issues ................ .. ................... 17 Prospects to the Year 2000 ...... ............................ 20 3. TECHNICAL AND VOCATIONAL EDUCATION ..... ..................... 23 Recent Developments ......................................... 23 Enrollment Trends ........................................... 24 Technical Manpower Demand and Supply ........................ 26 Issues in Technical/Vocational Education .................... 27 (a) Specialization ....... ................................. 29 (b) Duration and Level of Training ......................... 31 (c) Shortages of Staff and Facilities ..................... 31 (d) Administration .................. ...... 32 (e) Status of Technical/Vocational Education .........33 4. TEACHER TRAINING. .. ... ........... 33 Teacher Demand and Supply ......... . 34 Issues in Teacher Training . . .40 (a) Curricula 40 (b) Structure ...41 (c) Administration .............. . ..42 (d) Teacher Stau t...a........u....... 43 5. EDUCATION COSTS AND FINANCING ..... ..................... 44 Background ......................... . .... 44 Current Spending . . .. ........ 45 Prospects to the Year 2000 ..................... .. ... 48 v  Page No. TABLES IN TEXT Table No. 2.1 Projection of Primary Student Enrollments, 1983-2000 ............. ............................. 20 2.2 Projection of Student Enrollments at the Lower Secondary Level, 1983-2000 ............ .............. 21 2.3 Projection of Student Enrollments at the Upper Secondary Level, 1983-2000 ...... ................... 22 4.1 Projected Primary Teacher Surplus or Shortage in the Year 2000 ..................... .......... 35 4.2 Primary Teacher Stock by Qualifications and Age, 1982 ............ * . .. .36 4.3 Projected Secondary Teacher Surplus or Shortage in the Year 2000 ........ .... .. 38 5.1 Total Unit Costs of Education at Different Levels as a Percentage of GNP/Capita ...................... 46 5.2 Estimated Total Education Expenditures, 1979 and 1982 ............................................... 47 5.3 Growth of Ministry of Education Recurrent Expenditures, 1977-82 ................. . ............. 47 5.4 Percentage Distribution of Public Recurrent Educational Expenditure, by Level of Education ..... 48 5.5 Estimates of Primary School Enrollments, Teachers and Total Public Recurrent Costs in China, 1982 and 2000 ........................................... 49 5.6 Estimates of Secondary School Enrollments, Teachers and Recurrent Costs, 1983 and 2000 .... ............. 51 5.7 Summary of Estimates of Total Public Recurrent Costs, 1983 and 2000, and Capital Equipment Needs, 1982-2000, in Education ............................ 53 vi  Page No. LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix/Table No. Al Structure of Education in China .............................. 55 A2 Enrollment Ratios in Formal Education in China and in Other Developing Countries by Grade, 1950-83 and targets for 2000. 56 Bi Enrollment in Primary and Secondary Education by Grade, 1979-83 57 B2-B3 Number of Students, Schools and Teachers, 1979-83 ............ 59 B4 Student Enrollment in Various Types of Postsecondary Institutions, 1979-82/83 .......... 62 B5 Number of Various Types of Postsecondary Institutions, by Province - 1979, 1981 and 1982 ............................. 64 B6 Number of Graduates from Higher Education, by Discipline, 1979-83 65 B7 Higher Education Institutions and Students, by Classification, 1979783-83* ... o.... ............................. 66 B8 Students, Schools and Teachers in Nonformal Education, 1979-83 67 B9 Recurrent Educational Expenditure by the Ministry of Education, 1978-82, and State Budget Expenditure, by Activity, 1950-82 68 B10-Bll Enrollment in Formal Education, 1949-83, and Projected to the Year 2000 .......... ....................................... 70 C Timetable of Preservice Primary Teacher Training Schools ...... 72 D Comparative Education Indicators ....... . ...............0 73 E Public Recurrent Costs: Estimates of Increases at the Primary, Secondary and Higher Levels by the Year 2000........... 75 vii  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS The Chinese currency is called Renminbi (RMB). It is denominated in Yuan (Y). Each Yuan is 1 Yuan = 10 jiao = 100 fen In early 1984 the official exchange rate of the Yuan to the US dollar was around Y 2 = US$1. The internal settlement rate (ISR) of Y 2.8 = $1, however, was used in most merchandise transactions. The official exchange rate is now about Y 2.8 = $1. On January 1, 1985, the Government abolished the ISR. WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Chinese statistics are usually in metric units; in addition, mu and jin are often used: 1 mu = 0.1647 acres = 0.0667 hectares 1 jin = 0.5 kg FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 TRANSLITERATION The Pinyin system is used in this report. Note: In tables, individual items may not sum exactly to totals because of rounding errors. viii  SUMMARY 1. China's achievements in education since 1949 have been unmatched among developing countries of the same income level. Enrollments in formal and nonformal primary and secondary education have been high by any stan- dards. The supply of teachers and didactic materials has in many respects been good and student performance, as far as can be assessed, quite high. Self-help programs in education have been more successful in China than in most other countries. The Government has been able to keep the costs of major education programs under control, and China has - unlike the rest of the developing world - been able to introduce improvements in the education system without any serious strain on public expenditures. 2. China's education system has nevertheless had problems in recent years. Events during the Cultural Revolution seriously lowered the quality of education and sharply reduced the output of qualified manpower. Manpower shortages, affecting industry, agriculture, transportation and other economic sectors, have hampered achievement of the four modernizations. Accompanying shortages of qualified manpower has been an abundance of unqualified workers and staff at several levels, leading to low efficiency in enterprises and also in education. Since 1976, the Government has been quite successful in introducing measures to improve the output of qualified manpower and the overall education profile of China's population. 3. Over the last few years, developments outside the education sector have begun to have an impact on schooling. The change that has had the most far-reaching effect is introduction of the production responsibility system in rural areas. Linking production more to individual effort than it was in the past has apparently made rural parents, at least initially, less willing to send or maintain their children in school. In addition, new opportunities for productive work outside school may be a drain on the time and effort of locally hired teachers. Some changes have been made in the running of urban enterprises, but on a much more limited scale than the changes in rural areas. However, other changes affecting employment have also taken place: the former system of controlled labor allocation is no longer applied across the board, and some of the barriers to professional mobility and restrictions on rural-urban population movements seem to be relaxing somewhat. These changes will have an indirect impact on education because of their influence on students' job opportunities and career choices. 4. The focus on the rehabilitation of higher education during the last 7-8 years has been justified given the damage to higher education during the preceding decade. It is now appropriate to consider other parts of the educa- tion system also, to ensure that the base of the system is well developed. This annex has identified issues in general and technical/vocational education and in teacher training that will need to be dealt with during the next 15 years if the Government is to achieve its education policies and goals. Tentative estimates of future recurrent costs and investment needs have been made. These issues and prospects are summarized in the following paragraphs. ix  Universal Basic Education 5. The Government has proclaimed its goal of making six years of pri- mary education and three years of lower secondary education universal by the end of this century. The Government is thus de facto introducing a nine-year basic education system. Based on the World Bank's preliminary projections, absolute enrollments at these levels would decrease from 174 million to 135-140 million as universal basic education is achieved, because the fertility decline is predicted to continue. Constraints on achievement of universal basic education during the next 15 years are discussed below. 6. Enrollments have decreased in both primary and secondary education during the last few years. The intake of new students has declined more than can be explained by the reduction in the relevant age groups. Dropout rates have remained high. In the poorer regions of China, where there is little technological advance in agriculture or opportunity for nonagricultural employment, the economic returns to education must seem very low. Farmers are not convinced that there is a good economic return on primary education for their children, especially females. They see the opportunity costs of education for their children increasing with the introduction of the responsibility system in agriculture and would therefore rather keep some children engaged on the farm or in the household rather than in school. The Government has taken steps to reverse the decline in enrollments and reduce the number of dropouts, apparently with more success in primary than in secondary education. But increased local financial self-reliance in basic education seems to have aggravated the problems of poorer areas, where enroll- ment and educational quality were already unsatisfactorily low. Moreover, the factors which caused the enrollment decline will persist and may present an obstacle to achieving the goal of making nine years of basic education effectively universal by the end of the century. 7. Rural parents and poor city dwellers often see education as a way out of rural life and urban poverty and as a means of achieving a higher standard of living. Reintroduction in the late 1970s of the key-school (K- school) system in primary and lower secondary education may have thwarted such expectations in China. These schools appear to favor pupils in urban areas and children of economically better off and better educated parents every- where, at the expense of pupils in rural areas and children of less prosperous and less educated parents. The K-school system perpetuates the perception among poor people of a two-track system in basic education, one elite track - mainly for urban students - which leads to further education and promising careers in adult life, and a second track - mainly for rural children - which is terminal and, furthermore, less relevant for the adult life of a peasant or urban manual worker. It is difficult to justify application of the K-school concept in basic education: research and experience in other countries indicate that it is not only inequitable but also pedagogically and econom- ically unjustifiable. More recently, Government has discouraged the designa- tion of K-schools at the primary level. Many of them have even converted to experimental schools with additional responsibility to provide support for neighboring schools. x  8. The average Chinese pupil in primary and lower secondary education has textbooks but they could be improved in design, workmanship and content. There is a scarcity of other didactic materials and the physical school environment is often poor. Favorable demographic developments and financial gains that could be achieved by increasing student/teacher ratios provide an opportunity to improve the supply of materials nationwide. A universal nine- year basic education system will require more and also different equipment and didactic materials. 9. Experience from other countries shows that the introduction of a nine-year basic education system requires much work in curriculum and staff development, and physical planning to achieve the objectives of basic educa- tion. One concern is the role of K-schools in a nine-year basic education system. However, the most compelling problem, and the one that could have the most severe consequences for economic growth in the long term, is the erosion of schools' holding power. The Government is making an effort to popularize education by disseminating information about its benefits in terms of increased productivity and family well-being, and these efforts could be strengthened. Increased financial support from higher levels of Government for schools in poorer areas will also be essential. Finally, the proposal to make completion of primary education mandatory has been instituted already in one province and is likely to be an effective means of improving attendance nationwide. Technical and Vocational Education 10. There are few issues in general upper secondary education, one function of which is to prepare students for higher education. The Government has recently curtailed enrollments in this type of education as a means of reducing the pressure for university places. Enrollments will eventually increase again and triple the current enrollment of approximately 5.5 million students, to some 15 million, by the year 2000; this would correspond to an enrollment ratio of about 30% of the relevant age group. The quality of education offered is good, the quantity generally appropriate, and application of the K-school concept justified. 11. The situation in technical/vocational secondary education is quite different. The almost complete abolition of formal technical and vocational secondary education in China during the Cultural Revolution has caused a serious shortage of middle-level technical and managerial manpower in industry, agriculture and other economic sectors. Many technical and skilled worker training schools have now reopened and a great effort is being made to provide exposure to vocational subjects in many general secondary schools by offering courses in industry, services, business and agriculture. Advancement of the four modernizations and a tripling of GNP will require huge efforts in technical/vocational education to complement those already well underway in higher education. The specific need for technical/vocational education to support various economic sectors has only been marginally explored, but greater efforts in formal and nonformal agricultural and service sector education appear necessary. xi  12. Technical/vocational education in China compares well with that in many developing countries at the same income level, and the recovery after the damage caused by the Cultural Revolution has in many ways been admirable. The system suffers, nevertheless, from weaknesses that make support of the four modernizations difficult and that increase recurrent costs and investment needs more than necessary. Since 1976, progress in developing the system has been uneven. 13. Enrollment in technical and skilled worker training schools run by various line ministries has decreased, while the vocationalization of general secondary education has proceeded with increasing student enrollments. Non- formal training has assumed a large role and appears to meet half of annual training needs. The vocationalization program and nonformal training should develop further - the latter with assistance from enterprises and offered mainly on a spare-time basis - but enrollment in technical/skilled worker training schools should not be allowed to decline given the existing major manpower shortages. Furthermore, the general low utilization of staff, equip- ment and facilities in these schools suggests that they could increase their enrollment considerably, with reasonable additional costs, if they used a mixed boarding and day-school system. Better use of existing facilities would reduce, though not eliminate, the need for new buildings. 14. Attempts are being made to broaden the curricula of technical and skilled worker training schools and reduce the number of specializations offered. These changes aim to make technicians and skilled workers more flex- ible and adaptable in using new production techniques and work methods, and facilitate labor transfers and industrial restructuring. A review and revi- sion of curricula would be even more useful if accompanied by a survey of school facilities at the provincial level to assess the need for new or remo- deled facilities - particularly for technical programs in vocationalized secondary schools. 15. About 80% of the students in China's technical schools have a full junior and senior secondary education as a base for their technical studies. This is a high entrance level, which increases costs for both the public and the students, mostly without corresponding benefits in learning or skills. Technical and skilled worker training schools should generally require 8-9 years of general education as a base. Shorter postsecondary courses could be justified, as an exception, for a minority of students. 16. The administrative and managerial responsibility for technical/ vocational education is divided among many line ministries and their subordi- nate agencies. This allows good vertical cooperation within the system. Horizontal cooperation between schools run by different agencies is, however, limited, which leads to underutilization of staff and facilities, duplication of teaching, and unnecessarily large student catchment areas. 17. The Government has embarked on a program to vocationalize about 50% of upper secondary education. This program, which may cover skills for jobs in agriculture, commerce, and industry, as well as personal services is designed to alleviate apparent skill shortages as well as reduce heavy pressure on university entrance. However, the experience of other countries xii  with secondary vocational education has been mixed. Such programs are of much higher cost than general secondary, but it is not always clear that they necessarily produce more productive workers, particularly in industrial trades. In some countries secondary vocational schools suffer from inappro- priate equipment and outdated curricula. There may also be a tendency, already evident in China, to overspecialize thereby limiting the adaptability and even trainability of workers at later stages of employment. A system of secondary education that achieves intermediate general qualifications might provide the required flexibility for quickly responding to the demand for a particular type of manpower and be preferable to provision of specific skill training in a narrowly defined specialization at the secondary level. These considerations suggest that the Government should proceed with caution and only after careful assessment of alternative models in China and elsewhere. An effort at school location planning should precede full implementation of the program. To minimize costs, the Government should make full use of the staff and facilities in existing and new schools and in enterprises. Revised and broadened curricula are needed, as well as expanded and improved production of didactic materials. Finally, means of improving the status of technical/vocational education need to be found. Teacher Training 18. China employs more teachers than would be considered necessary in many countries. Student/teacher ratios are low, and teachers have correspond- ingly low workloads at all levels. Approximately one of every two teachers is unqualified according to official government standards. Preliminary projec- tions to the year 2000 show that the aggregate need for teachers in basic and upper secondary education (including technical and vocational education) would probably decline somewhat. There would be a decrease in the demand for class (primary) teachers because of the predicted enrollment decline, while the demand for academic and technical and vocational subject teachers would increase. A summary of the projections on teacher requirements is given below. xiii  Stock and Future Need for Teachers (million) 3 years' upper secondary 9 years' basic education education Academic Vocational/tech- Class Subject subject nical subject Year teachers/a teachers/b teachers/c teachers Total 1983 stock 5.4 2.1 0.5 0.1 8.1 2000 need 3.8 2.3/2.1 1.3/1.2 0.8/0.4 8.2/7.5 Change -1.6 +0.2/+0.0 +0.8/+0.7 +0.7/+0.3 0.1/-0.6 /a For the six lower grades, i.e. the present primary schools. 7i For the three upper grades, i.e. the present lower secondary schools. 7i Includes teachers in primary teacher training schools and teachers in academic or theoretical subjects in technical/vocational programs. Source: World Bank estimates. 19. These projections suggest that the preservice training of primary teachers needs to be reduced. A large percentage of the primary teacher stock is unqualified, however, and there is a need to continue inservice upgrading programs until the end of the century. In secondary education, preservice teacher training programs would need to double their output, and this has been planned for. Current inservice training of secondary teachers would also need to continue. 20. Preservice teacher training colleges in China currently emphasize subject knowledge at the expense of teaching in pedagogy, psychology and edu- cation. This emphasis is understandable given the neglect of subject know- ledge during the Cultural Revolution. Nevertheless, strengthening of both teaching and research in pedagogy and in psychology is suggested. 21. The common administrative separation of preservice and inservice teacher training in China prevents full and efficient use of staff and facili- ties and reduces feedback to the colleges on actual teaching experience. Since China's inservice and preservice teacher training needs will vary from year to year, maximum flexibility is needed in the system. Such flexibility would be promoted by administrative cooperation. 22. Despite recent salary increases, teaching is not seen as an attrac- tive profession in China. This is a difficult issue to resolve. High quality teachers contribute more to good student performance than other inputs, and recruitment of able students to teacher training institutions is therefore a high priority. It is also important to deal with the negative influence of the rural responsibility system on the recruitment and work of primary teachers. xiv  Costs and Financing 23. China has considerably increased spending on education during the last few years but nevertheless devotes a smaller share of GNP to education than many other developing or developed countries. This is particularly true of primary education. In higher education, student costs remain high prima- rily because of low internal efficiency. Teacher salaries are low, in both absolute and relative terms. 24. The World Bank has estimated the recurrent cost implications of introducing a nine-year basic education system and a vocationalized upper secondary school system that would enroll 50% of students in technical and vocational programs. The recurrent cost of the necessary teacher training has also been estimated, as has the capital cost of equipment needed. The World Bank does not, however, have the requisite knowledge of existing school faci- lities to estimate capital needs for building construction or rehabilitation. 25. The Government should be able to meet the recurrent costs of a nine- year basic education system, though the recommended increases in teachers' salaries would probably increase expenditure above the current level. The vocationalization of upper secondary education will increase recurrent costs for consumables, school maintenance and teachers (even if student/teacher ratios can be increased). Recurrent costs for teacher training are projected to double, but unit costs could remain unchanged. 26. Equipment costs for the universal basic education program should be reasonable. Equipment costs for the vocationalization program would be high, even if cost saving measures (such as using facilities in double shifts) are systematically applied. 27. Tentative estimates (in 1982 prices) have been made of the public recurrent and capital costs of education. It has been assumed that GNP will triple by the end of the century and that teachers' salaries will increase in line with the growth of GNP per capita. The recurrent cost of education is estimated to increase from Y 14 billion in 1982 to Y 33-38 billion by the year 2000. The recommended raise in teachers' salaries relative to other wages would further increase total recurrent costs; for example, a 50% increase in teachers' salaries would add Y 9-10 billion to recurrent costs in the year 2000. The capital cost for equipment is estimated at just over Y 21 billion from 1982-2000, or about Y 1 billion per year. The cost of building construction and remodeling is likely to amount to 10% of annual recurrent expenditure. Total annual public expenditure on education might thus amount to Y 46-52 billion in the year 2000. This figure is equivalent to about 3.1- 3.5% of estimated GNP in that year; this percentage is similar to the present allocation for education and still below the average for other LDCs (4-5%). xv  CHINA: ISSUES AND PROSPECTS IN EDUCATION 1. BACKGROUND 1.01 The World Bank's report entitled China: Socialist Economic Develop- ment (Report No. 3391-CHA, issued in June 1981) included an annex on education and training which described developments in education up to 1981 and discussed the overall manpower situation in China. The annex covered the objectives, structure, dimensions, content, quality, technology, administra- tion, staffing, costs and financing, and external and internal efficiency of current education and training. 1.02 The annex concluded with an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the system. It stated that the development of human resources in China since 1949 had in many ways been commendable. Expansion in primary school enroll- ment had made two-thirds of China's adult population literate. The secondary school enrollment ratio was considerably higher than that of comparable countries. Adult nonformal education, particularly programs run by industry and often executed with the help of mass media, had played an important role in improving the labor force. In many respects the quality of China's education was good. The education program had been carried out with little foreign assistance after the USSR withdrawal in 1960. Self-help schemes were important and had been more successful than in many other developing societies. China had furthermore carried out its education programs at an affordable cost. 1.03 There were, however, problems in China's education. A serious shortage of high-level manpower in China had been caused primarily by the disruptions to university education during the late 1960s and early 1970s. The system of technical/vocational education had been unable to produce suf- ficient middle-level technicians to meet the needs of agriculture, industry, transportation and other sectors. The broad expansion of primary and general secondary education had taken place without sufficient attention to quality: there were too many unqualified teachers and too many schools without appro- priate facilities and equipment. Though the self-help schemes had many advan- tages, they had tended to increase differences in school quality by location, a serious question in China where rural-urban disparities were large. At all levels of the education system, internal efficiency was low as measured by the utilization of staff and facilities, and as compared with other societies. 1.04 The annex summarized its findings and recommendations by stating that: (a) expansion and improvement of higher education should be seen as the first priority, including both preservice and inservice education; 1/ This paper focuses on basic education, technical and vocational education, and teacher training.  -2- (b) expansion and improvement of technical/vocational education was the second priority. For financial reasons much technical/vocational education would have to take place within enterprises, in addition to being offered in formal schools, and the program would have to be executed over a fairly long period; (c) teacher training would be a precondition for the execution of China's education programs, and for economic, social and pedagogical reasons it should emphasize inservice training; (d) planned expansion of general education to cover the first nine years of schooling was feasible considering favorable demographic trends, but increased attention should be paid to qualitative improvement by means of improved curricula and learning materials, and an expansion of the production of didactic materials was suggested; (e) efforts should be made to improve the internal efficiency of educa- tion at all levels; and (f) the expansion and improvement of education couLd be achieved without increasing recurrent expenditures beyond the average range for developing countries, measured as a percentage of GNP. Assistance for capital investments would be needed, however. 1.05 These recommendations (a) - (f) have been reflected in subsequent World Bank education lending and in the dialogue between Chinese authorities and the World Bank. Education projects approved so far cover the development of China's comprehensive universities, of higher education and research in agriculture, of health education, of the television university system and of a new polytechnic (short-term technical college) system. Proposed future activities include various universities run by technical ministries, technical/vocational education, teacher training, curriculum development and the manufacture of didactic materials, including textbooks. Recent Developments 1.06 Development of the education sector in China since 1981 has been characterized by systematic implementation of government policies and programs established in the late 1970s. The Government's major principles established at that time were stated as follows: " (a) education must be geared to the needs of socialist construction and modernization, and the proportion of expenditure on and investment in education must be adjusted and raised; (b) education is to be developed effectively and steadily in accordance with the policy of readjusting, restructuring, consolidating and improving the economy; (c) in view of the large population, and poor economic foundation, there should be priorities in the development of education and resources should not be evenly distributed among too many projects;  - 3 - (d) the relationship between popularization and the raising of standards should be handled correctly; the effective universalization of primary education should be a priority, and enough attention should be given to education in areas inhabited by minority nationalities; (e) educational structure must be transformed; (f) a diversified educational system should be adopted so as to achieve greater, faster, better and more economic results in educational development; and (g) efforts should be made to raise the level of teachers and to further strengthen the teaching force." 1.07 These policies were supplemented in 1982 with the following specific statements by the Ministry of Education to all provincial, county and city bureaus of education: (a) primary and secondary education should strive to develop moral, physical and intellectual capacities and should not over-emphasize examination scores. The schools should not concentrate on the graduating class and ignore the others; and (b) key schools (K-schools) are necessary for ensuring the quality of education, However, since primary education should aim at becoming universal, there will be no entrance examination to the key schools. All students to the K-schools will be admitted from the neighborhood." There have been no major changes in these policies, though financial constraints have apparently forced the authorities to postpone the completion dates for some programs. There have, furthermore, been no major changes in the objectives, structure, content, technology, staffing, costs or financing of China's education since 1981. 1.08 While educational development has been fairly stable, changes in other economic sectors have affected the environment in which the sector functions. The most significant change, introduction of a "production responsibility" system, has occurred in rural areas (where 80% of the popula- tion lives) in an attempt to improve incentives and management at all levels of the agricultural economy. Under this system, individual families are allocated land by the commune and then have full responsibility for farming it. The household has certain obligations (to pay their share of taxes, contribute to the welfare fund and help meet state procurement requirements) but beyond these may retain the remaining agricultural production, or sell products on the open market. 1.09 This is a significant change from the old system, under which incomes were shared more or less equally among commune members regardless of individual productivity. For education, this change has had unexpected conse- quences. Attendance at school may now result in income foregone (children  -4- could instead work productively on the farm or in the house, or even tend younger children, thus freeing parents for productive tasks). In addition, locally hired teachers, who were previously given work points like other workers and shared profits accordingly, also receive a plot of land under the responsibility system; since they also farm the land for profit, this is likely to become a priority demand on their time, to the neglect of their performance in the classroom. 1.10 Similar changes have also been instituted in urban areas, but only on a limited basis, and their impact has so far been much less. A system of productivity bonuses has been introduced to link earnings to output, but earnings differentials appear to offer workers only a limited incentive to increase productivity. 'Disincentives to increased productivity remain. Employment still tends to be secure. Managers have little control over the recruitment, promotion and dismissal of workers. The controls on labor mobility promote life-time assignments within one enterprise and offer few possibilities for transferring as a reward for good performance. Workers are linked to their enterprise in many ways; pensions, housing and health care are usually provided through the enterprise. Employees may also receive education and training in enterprise-sponsored programs. This immobility of labor leads to overspecialization (a problem as China undergoes structural transformation and moves towards becoming a middle-income economy) and prevents the spread of experience and new technology. 1.11 Other changes affect employment opportunities. The system of controlled labor allocations is no longer applied across the board: it is still used for most postsecondary graduates and skilled manual workers, but not for those with limited skills; graduates from the newly established postsecondary polytechnics also seek employment independently. Enterprises may now examine job applicants sent to them by labor bureaus. The unemployed, especially the young, are being encouraged to organize small collective enterprises or create opportunities for self-employment. The hiring of labor (up to eight people) is now permitted. 1.12 In 1979, China introduced a policy promoting the one-child family, with the aim of limiting the population to 1.2 billion by the year 2000. The impact of the one-child policy already appears to be greatest in the major cities, where third order births account for less than 5% of the total. Moreover, the responsibility system in agriculture seems to be leading to more children being born to rural families, presumably because land allocations usually depend on household size or labor force, and a second or third child provides another productive worker. These developments suggest that while labor will likely continue to be abundant in rural areas, a labor shortage may occur in urban areas in the 1990s if the present restrictions on population movement are not changed (in fact some liberalization of rural-urban migration rules has already occurred to permit peasants to work in small towns). 1.13 The implementation of China's education policies needs to be seen in the context of these developments in other sectors. This annex analyzes selected trends in education and discusses the impact of some external factors on education since the first report was written in 1981. It focuses on educa- tion subsectors and issues that were either not sufficiently covered in the  - 5 - 1981 report or not known at that time. It reviews quantitative education developments with the perspective of the Government's policies and the population data obtained from the recent census. 1.14 Specifically, this annex first discusses the proposed introduction of a universal, nine-year basic education system. Secondly, it deals with the kinds of technical/vocational education offered outside the universities. Thirdly, it looks at the demand for and supply of staff in primary and secondary education and issues related to the training of teachers. The annex concludes with a review of the costs and financial issues in education. 2. UNIVERSALIZATION OF BASIC EDUCATION 2.01 The Government of China has repeatedly stressed its policy of "popularizing" primary education, i.e. making it universal. The Government also aims to make lower secondary education universal in urban areas by 1990 and nationwide by the year 2000. This in effect would introduce a universal nine-year basic education system similar to those in many developed countries. Moreover, the Government aims to make upper secondary education universal in urban areas by the year 2000, but has set no date for rural areas. 2.02 These targets will have a far-reaching impact on the primary and secondary education system. After significant expansion of both levels of education from 1949 onwards, enrollments have begun to decline in recent years, because of both lower intake and higher dropout rates. Staffing levels have not decreased commensurate with drops in enrollment, thus exacerbating inefficiencies in staff utilization. To improve school quality selectively, the K-school philosophy was reintroduced in the late 1970s, but a reaction against this policy has recently occurred. These existing problem areas in the two levels of basic education will need to be considered in light of the changes now proposed. The remainder of this chapter thus first describes in more detail the recent developments in basic education noted above. It then considers what implications these issues in basic education have for the universalization strategy and how they might be tackled as part of this strategy. The chapter concludes with a brief review of prospects for achieving the Government's goals in basic education by the year 2000. Recent Developments in Primary and Secondary Education (a) Enrollment Trends 2.03 Primary education expanded rapidly after 1949: enrollment, at 24 million students in 1949, had reached 136 million by 1983. The estimated  -6- net enrollment ratio 2/ was 25% in 1949 and, by government estimates, about 90% in 1983. The latter ratio is high for a country at China's stage of development and compares well with the average 68% enrollment ratio for the 6- 11 age group in the rest of the developing world (Appendix A2). During the last 30 years, adult literacy in China has improved from some 20% of the population in 1949 to over 70% in 1983. The latter rate is also impressive and compares with a developing country median of 50-55%. 2.04 A closer look at recent enrollment figures nevertheless reveals some negative developments (Appendix B, Tables 8 and 10). Absolute enrollment in formal primary education peaked at 151 million students in 1975 and has thereafter declined by about 15 million students. It was estimated that the net primary school enrollment ratio might have been higher than 90% in the mid-1970s. The ratio leveled out in the late 1970s, and declined during the first few years after the introduction of the peasant responsibility system, and has apparently begun to increase again. Enrollment in spare-time primary education for adults and teenagers who never completed their primary education went down from 21 million in 1979 to 8 million in 1983. 2.05 There remains, furthermore, a regional enrollment gap. Although close to 90% of all children in China enter primary schools, only one out of four counties has achieved universal primary education. These are concentrated in cities. There is thus an enrollment gap between urban and rural areas, where some 80% of the population lives and where most Chinese will continue to live at least until the end of this century. Just as serious are the disparities in educational enrollment among different rural localities. In some poor areas, school attendance appears to be unsatisfactorily low, especially among girls - and significantly lower than official enrollment data suggest. Although enrollment statistics in all countries overstate actual attendance, and although it is not possible to assess the impact of such overstatement on China's overall enrollment ratio, measures to improve the accuracy of the statistics collected could assist in formulating appropriate policies. 2.06 An estimate of dropout rates in primary education can be made from the enrollment statistics by grade (Appendix B, Table 1.1). The exact percentage of full year repeaters is not known but is comparatively low in all grades, with the possible exception of the final (examination) grade. By contrast dropout rates are high. On average, one student out of ten drops out between each grade. This implies that only 65% of the students who commence Grade 1 will be in Grade 5 five years later. Most of the other 35% will have left school. The dropout rate for Grade 1 is particularly serious. Many rural students apparently start primary school but drop out after a few months, possibly to re-enroll in Grade I for the next academic year. Statistics further show that 10-15% of Grade 5 students do not graduate. The flow chart (Appendix B, Table 1.1) showing the progress of primary school pupils in 1979- 83 thus verifies the Chinese Government's "9-6-3" statement, i.e. that 9 out of 10 children commence primary education, 6 complete it and only 3 graduate 2/ The net ratio excludes, but the gross ratio includes, under- and over-age students.  i.e. that 9 out of 10 children commence primary education, 6 complete it and only 3 graduate with good perform ayce. Understandably this waste of human resources is a cause for concern.- 2.07 If not improved, the current enrollment situation may well cause the Chinese literacy rate to stagnate around 70%. Good literacy in Chinese, a major aim of China's primary education, is said to require five years of schooling. If this is true, only two out of three Chinese children who enter primary school will eventually become literate, i.e. the two who complete five years of education. The current literacy rate would only improve to the extent that literacy courses are organized for school dropouts, for those who never enrolled and for illiterate adults. These courses have played an impor- tant role in China over the last decades and had enrollments of 5.3 million students in 1983. Experience worldwide indicates, however, that the formal education of children is more efficient than the nonformal education of adults and teenagers in achieving permanent literacy. 2.08 Development of China's formal secondary education since 1949 has in some ways been even more impressive than that of primary education (Annex B, Table 10). In 1949, secondary schools enrolled about 1.3 million students, corresponding to a gross enrollment ratio of only 2%. Enrollment had grown to 68 million by 1977, with a gross enrollment ratio of about 46% based on Bank estimates of the size of the corresponding population groups. The latter ratio compares favorably with the 35% average enrollment ratio for developing countries. 2.09 The enrollment trend over the past few years has been less favor- able. Overall enrollment for formal secondary education (i.e. including both lower and upper secondary schools) has decreased from a peak of 68 million pupils in 1977 to 46 million in 1983, i.e. a decline of 32% or 22 million pupils. This corregyonds to a large decline in the gross enrollment ratio (to approximately 30%). During the same period the developing country average increased to 39% and that of the advanced countries to 83%. 2.10 Enrollment decreases over the last few years have been similar at the lower and upper secondary levels. In 1979, lower secondary education enrolled 46 million students, which corresponds to a 63% gross enrollment ratio for the 12-14 year age group, based on current World Bank estimates of China's population. Enrollment decreased to 38 million students in 1983, or 46% of the relevant age group, i.e. a reduction in the enrollment ratio of 17%. 3/ China's primary school pupils nonetheless perform better than primary school children of the same age in LDCs with the same income level, where completion rates are often below 50%. 4/ 34% if students in extended primary schools at the lower secondary level are included.  -8- 2.11 In upper secondary education, the ongoing conversion from a two-year to a three-year system has not prevented a dramatic decrease in total enroll- ments. Enrollment in all formal upper secondary education (including technical and skilled worker training schools, and primary teacher training schools) was 14 million in 1979, corresponding to 36% of the 15-16 year age group; in 1983, enrollment had been almost halved to 8 million students, or 16% of that age group (or only 10% if the three-year age group, 15-17 years, is taken). 2.12 Intake of new students has declined and dropout rates have gone up during the last four years. Enrollment in lower secondary Grade 1 was 18 mil- lion in 1979 but declined to 14 million in 1983. The transition rate from primary to lower secondary education went down from 83% in 1979 to 65% in 1983. Since available data indicate no major changes in the size of the relevant age group during this period, the decrease must reflect a reduction in the number of primary school graduates applying for further education. The decrease is said to have taken place primarily in rural areas. Dropout rates between grades have continued to be high, averaging 12% between Grades I and 2, and 22% between Grades 2 and 3 during 1979-83. At the upper secondary level, the intake of new students declined from 7 million in 1979 to less than half that figure in 1983. The transition rate from lower secondary to all types of upper secondary schools was 37% in 1979 but decreased to 24% in 1983. A reduced intake to general upper secondary education reflects (in contrast to the situation at the lower levels) at least partially the Government's policy of diverting students from academic to technical/ vocational fields, thereby reducing pressure for university places. The intake of technical schools of different kinds has, however, not yet increased enough to compensate for the drop in the intake to general upper secondary schools. The few data available indicate that dropout is less of a problem in upper secondary education than in primary and lower secondary education, averaging 9% between grades during 1979-83. Failure rates in the final examinations are about 10% or less. 2.13 During this period of decline in formal secondary school enrollments, enrollment in nonformal secondary education has increased from 4.7 million to 9.6 million (1982). But the 4.9 million increase in nonformal secondary enrollments was not sufficient to offset the 22 million decline in formal enrollments during 1977-82. Moreover, the nonformal system caters pri- marily to young adult workers (to make up for missed educational opportunities during the Cultural Revolution), rather than providing additional skilled labor. It is, in addition, generally more costly to provide secondary educa- tion to adults than to teenagers, because of income foregone and other econo- mic factors. Thus China's well-developed system of nonformal, in-service secondary education can compensate for lost educational opportunities and up- grade the labor force, but it can only partially substitute for a well- developed, formal, preservice system. (b) 'Staff Utilization 2.14 In view of declining enrollments, efficiency in teaching staff uti- lization has worsened at both the primary and secondary levels. Primary school teaching staff has increased slightly while enrollment declined by  -9- 11 million students during 1979-83. The student/teacher ratio has consequent- ly gone down from 27:1 in 1979 to 25:1 in 1983 (the median ratio for other LDCs is about 35:1). The class size has been kept almost constant, at around 34, which implies that teachers' weekly workload - by international standards, already a low 20 periods - has gone down further. The number of full-time administrative staff has also increased by 28% (to over 0.6 million) despite a 6% reduction in the number of primary schools. 2.15 Similarly, at the secondary level, while enrollments in lower secon- dary education decreased by over 17% during 1979-83, teaching staff only decreased by 10%, which implies that the student/teacher ratio decreased from 19.2:1 to 17.6:1. In general upper secondary schools, enrollments were rough- ly halved, while teachers declined by only 21%, and the student/teacher ratio consequently decreased from 19.4:1 to 13.9:1. Similar developments reduced the ratios in primary teacher training from 14.0:1 to 11.3:1, in technical schools from 8.6:1 to 5.9:1 and in skilled worker training schools from 11.6:1 to 6.2:1. These ratios might be compared with a median of 21:1 in other developing countries. As in primary education, these low ratios are caused not by small classes but by low teacher workloads, which average 1 712 periods/week (20-25 periods/week are common in advanced countries - ). 2.16 Low student/teacher ratios could be justified if they were proven to improve tgeching. In fact larger workloads with fewer, but better-qualified, teachers - might enhance teaching in China despite comparatively large class sizes. Relative staff increases at all levels of basic education are therefore difficult to justify from a pedagogical or from a financial point of view. (c) The K-School Philosoph 2.17 The rapid expansion of primary and secondary education in China in the late 1960s and early 1970s led to a serious deterioration in school quality. Many teachers were unqualified and many schools lacked facilities and equipment for even basic teaching; this situation persists today. During the late 1970s, the Government considered it necessary to take drastic mea- sures to improve school quality by providing better inputs to the system. As it was financially impossible to do this nationwide, it was done selectively, by reintroducing the K-school concept. A few schools in each province and county were designated as K-primary and secondary schools; they were allocated extra funds (their funding was 2-3 times that of regular schools) and provided with better facilities, didactic materials and teachers. K-schools enrolled the best students and through rigorous efforts by the staff provided them with an excellent education. The K-schools set standards for other schools but 5/ A survey in one European country showed that its teachers had among the lowest annual workloads of public employees despite a weekly load of 21-30 periods. 6/ The proportion of unqualified teachers is said to be 40-50% in primary schools, 70% in lower secondary schools and 40% in upper secondary schools.  - 10 - mainly prepare their students for further education (the K-schools can almost guarantee their students eventual entrance to institutions at the next level of education) and could, for example, offer instruction in foreign languages, which because of teacher shortages may not always be possible in regular schools. 2.18 Some regular schools applied the K-school philosophy by opening K-classes. This development led to an overemphasis on preparing students for further education and on the performance of the most able students. Insuffi- cient attention was paid to preparing less able students for adult life, so that average or below average students lost interest in their schooling. The gap between high and low performers increased. By the early 1980s this led to a reaction against the most extreme application of the K-school concept and some of the more negative consequences at the lower education levels have been eliminated. Intraschool streaming and establishment of K-classes have now been stopped. Moreover, student intake to K-schools has been localized and student catchment areas have been reduced. Through administrative action supported by provincial education bureaus under MOE, the K-school concept is being redefined as a vehicle for diffusion of improved curricula, materials and teaching practices to local schools. K-schools now comprise 1% of primary and about 4% of secondary schools; K-students may amount to 5% of all students at the primary and secondary levels (counting both K-schools and K-classes). Issues for Basic Education Strategy 2.19 Introduction of a nine-year system of basic education poses problems in light of the recent developments in primary and secondary education discus- sed above. A fundamental question, however, concerns the aims of universal education in China and the best means of achieving them. Continued concern and remedial action with respect to enrollments and dropout rates is required. If the recent pattern of a decline in school attendance that followed in the wake of the reforms in the rural economy were to persist, this could seriously imperil efforts to universalize basic education. (The related problem of increasingly inefficient staff utilization is considered in depth in Chapter 4, which assesses the future demand for and supply of teachers in basic education). A second issue concerns the role of the K-schools and their appropriateness in a nine-year basic education system. Finally, implementa- tion of the Government's basic education strategy poses several management problems. These issues are discussed below. (a) Aims of Basic Education 2.20 In China, as in most other developing and developed countries, basic education has two major objectives. It should first educate the majority of pupils for adulthood and their life in society. It might be the only, and therefore terminal, formal education for most pupils, who are mainly the children of farmers and of unskilled workers in industry and the service sector. Appropriate mastery of speech, reading and writing of the mother tongue and a competent handling of basic mathematics have been the cognitive skiLls that basic education has inculcated into pupils. The socializing task is also important and includes familiarization with behavior and beliefs that society considers important. Second, basic education should also prepare able  - 11 - students for further studies at the secondary level, and possibly in universi- ties, and eventually for leading roles in their communities. 2.21 It has frequently proven difficult to arrive at a reasonable balance in these two objectives. Countries have attempted to achieve the dual objec- tives of basic education in different ways. Some have favored offering students study electives during the last few years of basic schooling. Students not interested in further education can take less demanding courses (e.g. an easier course in mathematics) or even drop subjects (such as foreign languages), and also choose prevocational subjects. Students wanting to pur- sue further education can focus on purely academic courses. This type of system seeks to group students by their objectives rather than their ability, but is nevertheless believed to lead to ability streaming. It is claimed that no study program in a basic education system should be terminal, but all programs should allow students to pursue further education, if necessary with remedial or preparatory programs. 2.22 A basic question concerns the ultimate disposition of lower secon- dary school graduates. The transition rate from lower to upper secondary education has decreased during the last few years (para. 2.12). Thus the per- centage of lower secondary graduates entering the labor market with no job training is increasing, and universalization of lower secondary education is likely to accentuate this trend. 2.23 Similarly, as universal education is extended, even partially, to the upper secondary level, the appropriateness of the present academic empha- sis of secondary education will need to be reviewed.7/ At this level, preparation for the university entrance examination has been a high priority, as shown, for instance, in the introduction of a three-year curriculum. This has led to an overemphasis on examinations and on subjects examined for university entrance. Students who enter university are reasonably well prepared for advanced studies, at least in natural sciences and in engineer- ing, but they comprise only a small minority of all academic secondary school graduates (10-15%). As a second best choice, another 10-15% of graduates enter postsecondary technical schools. The remaining 70-80% of graduates leave school with a general education but no other job preparation. 2.24 The Government is therefore faced with the need to provide graduates with training to benefit society and the country's development, but it cannot meet the educational and vocational aspirations of all students. It is seeking the structures, curricula and selection methods that would best achieve a reasonable balance between the demand for and supply of secondary education and minimize pressures for further education. A vocationalization 7/ Only some 20% of upper secondary school students in China are in technical/vocational education, compared to 40-50% in some advanced and newly industrialized countries.  - 12 - program 8/ for upper secondary education represents the Government's major initiative in response to this issue. The program will be discussed in Chapter 3. (b) Demand for Basic Education 2.25 As noted earlier (paras. 2.04 and 2.09), the decline in enrollments, that continues most clearly at the lower secondary level, may make the Govern- ment's targets for universal education difficult to reach. They could delay the achievement of full literacy and, in the wider perspective, jeopardize achievement of the four modernizations. A better understanding is needed of the factors that have contributed to the recent decline in enrollments, part of which is due to traditional attitudes about the value of education and part to policies in other economic sectors. The Government has taken action to reverse the present trend, and further actions that could make basic education more attractive and promote attendance are also described below. 2.26 Successful primary education can lead to further education and even- tually to a socially and economically better life, and this continues to be a powerful reason why poor peasants and people from other economically deprived groups accept great sacrifices to send their offspring to school. In this respect poor people in China differ in no way from those in other countries. But while education is perceived as a way to a different and presumably better life, the current stratification - in access to and in the quality and goals of basic education in China - may serve as a disincentive to attendance for those at the bottom of the system, i.e. in the rural areas. (Student performance, rather than attendance, is the main concern for city schools). The occupational rigidity and geographic immobility of Chinese citizens, particularly in rural areas, further reduce educational choices. Primary schools are a local responsibility and a family is limited to the schooling available locally. Rural parents are generally well aware of the limited opportunities for their children to advance to further education and may see little use in their children attending a primary school with this aim. 2.27 Implementation of the agricultural responsibility system (paras. 1.08-09) has further reduced the holding power of many rural primary schools. Under this system, more farm work and increased production directly increase family incomes, so many rural parents prefer to have their children work on the fa 7 or in the household rather than go to school. The responsi- bility system,- which in itself is sound, has unintentionally reinforced the perception common in rural areas of LDCs that the income foregone in sending 8/ Under this program, some general upper secondary schools will offer classes in technical/vocational subjects, while maintaining programs in academic subjects, and others will be fully converted into "vocationa- lized" secondary schools that offer only technical/vocational programs. 9/ The negative impact of this system on the quality and motivation of locally hired teachers, together with ways of reversing these developments, is discussed in paras. 4.35-37 below.  - 13 - children to school - instead of having them tend domestic animals, do simple work in the fields or just look after younger children - is not compensated by possible future income increases because of literacy and numeracy. Another disincentive is the direct cost of education. Students usually pay a few yuan per semester for textbooks and tuition. Some especially poor students may be exempted. This may seem like a minor cost, but many parents, particularly in poor rural areas, may feel that it is more than they can afford and not worth the investment. Moreover, fees in some areas have apparently recently increased as a result of increased local financial self-reliance in basic education. 2,2S Physical inaccessibility is also a constraint to universalization of basic education. Many areas in China are densely populated, so that schools are close to children's homes and easily accessible. But in other areas - not Just in the North or Northwest - students would have to walk long distances to get to school. A long distance between home and school has been found to be a serious deterrent to school attendance worldwide. Since 1979 the Government has closed some 58,000 primary and 47,000 secondary schools primarily because of their low quality. These closures have probably increased school inacces- sibility in many places. 2.29 Recent Government Actions. The Government, through the information units at the township level, is trying to popularize education and relay find- ings about its profitability and other benefits. Research in other countries on the value of education has concluded that literate farmers are more produc- tive farmers and more efficient in the management of farm resources. A prime factor in increased productivity is that educated farmers tend to be more willing to adopt new inputs and to use them more efficiently. On average, farm production is said to increase by about 9% as a result of a farmer having completed four years of primary education rather than having no schooling. Moreover, farmers with a secondary education appear to do even better under the new responsibility system than those with only a primary education. Other studies have indicated that education also affects in other ways the well- being of society as a whole. Literacy among females can have a positive influence on infant and child mortality, as well as on children's nutritional status. It can also affect fertility, by changing demand for children and contraceptive acceptance. In addition, children of better educated mothers generally perform better in school. 2.30 The Government has also attempted to promote school attendance by allowing class schedules and academic years to be changed to accommodate the employment needs of the agricultural seasons. School holidays have been moved and school days shortened. Spare-time primary schools have been established and itinerant teachers hired. (These teachers serve mountain villages with few children, by holding classes during a morning shift in one village and an afternoon shift in another.) Some counties report that these measures have increased enrollment. (See also para. 2.39.) 2.31 For some time, the Government has been considering making attendance at primary schools mandatory. Policies to make education compulsory were adopted by the industrialized countries early in the development of universal basic education; similar policies were adopted by many developing countries in  - 14 - the 1960s and 1970s. These have met with varying success, depending largely on the methods and effort of enforcement. In China, a policy of mandatory completion of primary education has already been adopted by Jiangsu Province; parents muth,pay a fine if their children are not allowed to complete primary education.- In general, however, enforcement is likely to be less of a problem in China than in other countries, because social pressure can play a large part in instituting government policy. 2.32 Possible Additional Measures. In poorer areas, more financial support from higher levels of government, including the central government, will be essential to improve enrollment and educational quality. Parents in these areas cannot afford to pay large enough fees. Nor can township and village governments cover the costs involved from their limited revenues, par- ticularly because in poor localities there are comparatively few township and village enterprises. In richer areas, the present trend of increased finan- cial self-sufficiency in basic education is defensible. But in poorer areas, this trend is aggravating educational disparities that are already unaccept- ably large. More generally, the learning environment in rural primary and lower secondary schools could be improved to increase their attractiveness. The gap in the amount and quality of facilities available to rural and urban schools could be reduced through improvements in the quality of textbooks, supply of additional didactic materials, and improvement of the physical classroom environment. However it would not be feasible or desirable to supply rural schools with sophisticated learning equipment and communication systems. (Forty percent of China's population, mostly in rural areas, have no access to electricity, which would prevent effective use of some contemporary teaching methods.) 2.33 More could also be done to improve school accessibility and reduce the distance between a student's home and his school. Wider use might be made of multigrade teaching, whereby a school's student catchment area could be several times smaller than it would be under a single grade system. This would be economically feasible in areas in China with only 5-10 students in each age group within a one hour commuting distance. A system of biennial rather than annual student intake might also be feasible in China's remote areas. The system of itinerant teachers was found to be taxing on the teachers in European countries that used this scheme in the past. In loca- tions where the population is even thinner or nomadic, a boarding school system would seem to be the only feasible solution. Research in other societies has shown that the above measures do not necessarily reduce the quality of learning. Students in rural multigrade classes have performed as well as students in traditional single grade classes, and in some regards (e.g. social adjustment) have done better. 2.34 It has been suggested that introduction of special subjects in the curriculum of rural basic schools in China might make schooling more relevant, 10/ China Daily, June 29, 1984.  - 15 - and presumably more attractive. In other countries,!!/ this has been done by combining teaching of academic subjects with, for instance, work in fields and gardens and carpentry. It was believed that this type of diversified basic education would be more relevant for adult life (i.e. for those not continuing their education) and help convince parents of the economic value of schooling. 2.35 The introduction of "special" or "practical" subjects in basic schools, and of separate programs for those who would enter the labor market and for those who would continue their education, has seldom achieved its objectives when tried in other countries. The specialized programs have not made basic schooling more attractpye and the schools have seldom been able to provide training "of relevance." - Moreover, the teaching of practical subjects has not made the academically inclined more appreciative of manual skills, nor has it made rural life more attractive to city dwellers. The programs have, in most countries, been unfair to those coming from the peasant and worker classes or from other disadvantaged groups. They have, furthermore, reduced the possibility of identifying and developing a pool of able pupils from disadvantaged groups, as these children have almost invariably been relegated to the less demanding programs, regardless of their academic potential. 2.36 While the above paragraphs discuss some reasons for the school enrollment decline and possible means of dealing with the issue, this question deserves a more comprehensive study. A study of the situation, its causes and possible remedies could be undertaken by the Central Institute for Education Research, which conducts research for the Ministry of Education. (c) Application of the K-School Concept 2.37 The role and effectiveness of the K-schools vary by education level, as well as by the location of these schools in urban and rural areas. Con- tinued application of the K-school concept as part of a basic education strategy raises one general issue - equity/equality - and one specific issue, namely its role in the universalization of basic education. The former issue is relevant because it heightens the quality and access gap between rural and urban areas. The latter issue needs to be considered for each level of education. 11/ Attempts to "vocationalize" primary education have been common in developing countries where universal primary education has been considered a necessity, but the percentage of students who would pursue further education has been small. 12/ It is claimed that when countries can afford a universal nine-year basic education system, the economy is so developed that the content and quality of prevocational subjects that can reasonably be offered to students 13-15 years of age are of limited use in the adult working community. Under any circumstances these subjects need to be followed by additional vocational training or apprenticeship schemes.  - 16 - 2.38 Effect on Equity and Equality. A considerable gap exists between the quality of rural and urban schools. Urban primary schools are state schools, whose teachers are paid by the Government; they are reasonably well supplied with facilities and materials. Rural schools on the other hand are now the responsibility of the townships, which cover most capital and recurrent costs. Despite a state subsidy for their locally hired teachers, rural communes are having difficulty providing competent and dedicated teachers in the face of more rewarding jobs in the community (paras. 4.35- 37). Textbooks are available at all schools, but rural schools often lack appropriate and safe buildings, furniture and other didactic materials. Most K-schools are in urban areas. They receive more funds and as a consequence the urban-rural gap has widened. 2.39 Although urban and rural schools offer basically the same curri- culum, rural schools may adjust the curriculum to local conditions, by offer- ing education full-time, half-time, spare-time, in the slack season or winter, and at other times (para. 2.30). Urban schools and K-schools on the other hand are almost invariably six-day, full-time primary schools. The flexibi- lity of rural schools is an asset in many ways, but also a potential liabi- lity: attendance may be irregular, which has negative consequences for learn- ing. 2.40 Discussion of the equity/equality issue has, as mentioned, already occasioned some changes in application of the K-school concept. The neighborhood has been made the catchment area for urban K-schools in an attempt to reduce inequality. China's housing policy, which sometimes concentrates professionals and cadres in some urban areas and blue-collar workers in other areas, could, however, reduce the impact of this policy. Another change is the abolition of entrance examinations for K-primary schools. But again this may, depending on the type of examination, reduce the chances of gifted children of blue-collar workers entering these schools. Thus in general it seems that urban schools, reinforced by the K-school system, prepare their students for further education and high level jobs, while rural schools prepare their students for adult life and manual, lower skill jobs. 2.41 Impact on Universalization Strategy. Despite recent decreases, the ratios for primary and lower secondary education could be above 90% after several years. Such high enrollment in lower secondary education will require a system that offers equal educational opportunities to all at the primary level. There is therefore reason for the Chinese authorities to consider a unified primary education system (without K-schools) that is seen as a basis for the further education of all citizens, from both rural and urban areas. The complete abolition of K-schools at the primary level has in fact recently been discussed. Application of the K-school concept at the lower secondary level might exclude bright students from further education and ultimately from a career that benefits society, because of their family background or late maturation. The risk of not identifying or fully developing talented youngsters is thus increased once a highly structured system of regular and K-schools is extended to nine years. Furthermore, studies of European systems in the 1950s and 1960s showed that less able students at this level lost more from not being taught in classes together with brighter pupils than brighter  -17- students gained from being taught in homogeneous, high ability classes. These findings suggest that application of the K-school concept, even just at the upper part of a nine-year system of universal basic education, would be waste- ful both in economic and social terms over the medium and long run. 2.42 K-schools at the upper secondary level, i.e. beyond the basic education system, present less of an issue because of the more important role this level of education plays in preparing students for further education. It is easier to identify able students at the end of their adolescence with tests that emphasize aptitude (rather than knowledge acquired through schooling) and that have some predictive value. It is, moreover, necessary to screen stu- dents for progression from a universal lower secondary system to selective academic upper secondary education. An upper secondary K-school system would therefore not necessarily be harmful. The composition of the student body in K-upper secondary schools would need to be continuously studied, howev r5 and possible imbalances (e.g. in representation by sex or minority groups ) could be corrected through quota systems. (d) Management Issues 2.43 Efficient management of the system is hampered by a lack of data in several areas. The condition of physical facilities is often known mainly through anecdotal evidence or through rough aggregate estimates. The actual supply of important inputs for learning, such as libraries and science equip- ment, is not known. It is thus not possible to assess the performance of the system satisfactorily as measured by inputs - and even less as measured by outputs (a review of examination pay Ms and results provides some information, but this is of limited usefulness). - There are, furthermore, insufficient data available to assess quantitatively the equity of China's education system. The rural-urban disparity has probably increased recently, but the magnitude of this disparity is not yet known. 2.44 Much time-consuming work is needed in several areas if the universal nine-year basic education system is to make the required contribution to China's economic and social development. A complete analysis of China's basic education system would require: (a) a survey of physical facilities; (b) an IEA-type study; and (c) a provincial or even prefectural breakdown of school enrollments by grade, sex, ethnic group, and rural/urban residence as related to age group and the composition and distribution of the population. This information is only partially available. The work under (a)-(c) above could 13/ Differences in language, culture and economic development may discrimin- ate against students from minority ethnic groups however carefully the examination tests are developed and evaluated. 14/ Studies to measure student achievement, similar to those conducted under programs of the International Association for the Evaluation of Education Achievement (IEA), would be more useful. This type of study relates inputs to outputs and allows education decision-makers to compare alternative scenarios and take appropriate corrective actions.  - 18 - be joint research projects carried out by the Central Institute for Education Research and Chinese universities, possibly in cooperation with the Interna- tional Institute for Educational Planning. A thorough study of the enrollment trend in primary and secondary education could be undertaken by the Central Institute for Education Research (para. 2.36). In addition, the Government needs to consider the implications of its policy in such areas as curriculum development and teaching methods, examinations and evaluation, promotion policy and planning of physical facilities. These aspects of management are discussed below. 2.45 Curriculum and Teaching. Universalizing nine years of basic schooling would require curricula revisions and research on course content and teaching methods, particularly at the lower secondary level. This is because the learning situation in a school changes considerably when it is to meet the learning needs of the total adolescent population (many of whom will not go on to higher education) rather than those of a minority who will pursue their education further. Course content and learning methods need to change accordingly. Experience from OECD countries indicates that considerable time and effort are needed to develop curricula and to conduct research on course content and teaching methods. 2.46 Examinations and Evaluation. Appropriate testing, examination, and evaluation methods must also be created for a basic education system. They must be suitable for the whole population group, not just the few students continuing to upper secondary and university education. Standardized tests that help teachers and administrators assess the quality of the system rather than the performance of individual students might be developed. They could partially replace or supplement the current comprehe?ypve examination systems at the end of primary and lower secondary education. 2.47 Promotion Policy. Promotion policy in basic efuV ation is an issue in some countries. It is claimed that grade repetition 6 in a universal school system may reflect more the competence of the teacher than the potential and performance of the student, and therefore it should not be supported. Rather, students should be given remedial teaching in the subject they failed and not be forced to repeat a year in all subjects. Others claim that automatic promotion with or without remedial teaching has a negative impact on overall school performance, and that grade repetition is therefore a necessity. It may be said that there is not enough evidence to support the latter view. The threat of repetition does not seem to increase the incentive to study among children in this age group. (Other more constructive factors such as parental support, teacher effectiveness and textbook supply appear more important for good performance). Repeating a year in all subjects does 15/ The Ministry of Education has recently suggested that examinations at the end of primary education be abolished in urban areas. 16/ In fact repetition in Chinese primary schools appears to be quite low for most grades; more serious is the problem of dropouts from Grade 1 who re- enroll for the next academic year (para. 2.06).  - 19 - not seem to improve a student's knowledge and skills enough to justify the extra cost to him and society. It may lower the overall quality and cost effectiveness of the system. 2.48 Planning of Physical Facilities. A 5-6 year primary education system only requires classrooms and some simple administration and storage areas. The addition of three more school years to establish a nine-year system of basic education implies inclusion in the curriculum of subjects such as physics, chemistry and biology, which even if taught jointly as "science" require some special facilities and equipment. These requirements and those caused by the introduction of "practical subjects" originally led authorities in many countries to construct "nuclear schools" or "central schools" in towns, townships or major villages, so that the student catchment area was sufficient to justify economically and fully utilize the special facilities (laboratories and workshops). In sparsely populated areas, students had to board or travel long distances to school. The larger size of these schools also allowed them to hire the specialized teaching staff they considered necessary for science and "practical" subjects. 2.49 The need to provide special rooms and teachers in basic education schools has, however, been questioned, as has the concept of central schooLs with their large catchment areas. During the last few decades, didactic science materials have been developed for basic education that can be effi- ciently used without laboratories and do not even require that schools be electrified. Contrary to previous beliefs, the difference in achievement at these education levels between students who have access to laboratories and those who do not appears comparatively small. Under World Bank projects in many countries involving science and "practical" education, schools in remote and poor areas have, furthermore, had difficulty in running and maintaining laboratories and other more sophisticated facilities (including equipment such as tape recorders and overhead projectors). Teacher training in many developed societies has also become less specialized, so that teachers can teach at least three subjects in the upper basic education grades (7-9) satisfactorily. (Some LDC research indicates also that a high degree of teacher specialization does not guarantee high instructional performance at this education level.) Student transportation and boarding have also been found to be expensive and often complicated. In some countries, arguments are therefore now being made to revert to smaller neighborhood schools throughout the basic education system, even if these schools are less well endowed with facilities and specialized staff. 2.50 Extension of basic education to nine years in China will require thorough forward planning. Variations in population distribution and composi- tion, demographic trends, migration patterns, urbanization, topography, climate and transportation means are considerable in China. Rigid rules on school location, size and physical facilities should therefore be avoided and much attention given to local conditions and means. There is, nevertheless, a large need for "school mapping" at the county, prefecture and municipality level. The experiences of the International Institute for Educational Planning (IIEP) in Paris could be of great use to Chinese authorities in this respect. Moreover, the introduction of universal lower secondary education, when seen as part of a unified, nine-year basic education system, need not  - 20 - necessarily require huge investments in buildings, equipment and specialized teaching staff (para. 5.14). Prospects to the Year 2000 2.51 Primary Level. The World Bank has made projections of future enrollments in pri ary education and the impact on teacher demand and education costs.17- If available demographic data are correct, the number of seven year-olds, the entry age for primary education, and of all children in the primary school age group would decline almost every year until the end of the century because of the fertility decline. Primary school enrollments would therefore continue to decline even as primary education becomes universal. This decline will facilitate achievement of universal primary education because the demand for classrooms and teachers will also decline. Reintroduction of a six-year primary education system nationwide could be accelerated. It has been assumed that primary education would be universal by 1992 and that the current completion rate of about 65% would improve to 95%. All schools would have converted to a six-year system by the year 2000. Under these assumptions, primary school enrollment would continue to decline from 136 million in 1983 to 99 million in 1990 and then level out at around 95 million students during the late 1990s (Table 2.1). Table 2.1: PROJECTION OF PRIMARY STUDENT ENROLLMENTS, 1983-2000 Total Population Gross enroll- Year enrollment age 7-12 ment ratio (mln) (mln) 1983 136 144 0.94 1985 124 130 0.95 1990 99 111 0.89 1995 88 91 0.97 2000 94 94 1.00 Source: World Bank estimates. 2.52 Based on the World Bank's preliminary projections, it should be possible fgy China to achieve universal primary education with qualified teachers,- a reasonable supply of didactic materials and a good physical school environment. The prospects for a high quality of education in China by 17/ The projections are based on partial census data available as of early 1984. 18/ The supply of teachers is dealt with in Chapter 4.  - 21 - the year 2000 are good, and the country would not face the constraints of manpower and finances that have beset most other developing countries trying to universalize primary education. 2.53 Secondary Level. The World Bank has also made projections of enrollment in lower and upper secondary education for the period 1983-2000, again using available demographic data and assumptions derived from current government policies. The projections (Table 2.2) show that the current student enrollment in lower secondary education would gradually increase from 38 million in 1983 to a peak of 48 million in 1988 (this is still below the peak of the mid-1970s). Because of demographic developments, enrollment would decrease during 1989-92 to 39 million. Enrollment fluctuates between 39 and 43 million until the end of the century, when enrollment of 42 million corres- ponds to universal enrollment. The Government should be able to achieve its goal of universal lower secondary education, and thus of nine-years' universal basic education, without serious financial or staffing problems because of favorable demographic developments. Table 2.2: PROJECTION OF STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AT THE LOWER SECONDARY LEVEL, 1983-2000 Total Population Population Gross enroll- Year enrollment age 12-14 age 13-14 ment ratio (mln) (mln) (mln) 1983 38 83 81 0.44 1985 41 77 79 0.51 1988 48 66 70 0.61 1990 45 59 61 0.73 1992 39 56 57 0.76 1995 43 54 55 0.79 2000 42 45 43 0.92 Source: World Bank estimates. 2.54 It was assumed that universalization of upper secondary education in urban areas by the year 2000 would be accompanied by a gross enrollment ratio of about 30Z in rural areas and 55-60% nationwide, up from the current 10%. This would equal recent ratios at this education level in Europe. The Govern- ment has examined the possibility of vocationalizing upper secondary education by 1990 (para. 2.24), which implies that half of all upper secondary students would be in some type of technical/vocational education program (e.g. in industry, agriculture, social services, commerce or teacher training) by that time. The current system, under which about half the academic students are in 2-year courses and half in 3-year courses, would eventually be replaced by a system offering only a 3-year option. Intergrade promotion rates in upper secondary schools are high at 98%, and are assumed to remain so. World Bank projections (Table 2.3) show that total upper secondary school enrollment  - 22 - (general and technical/vocational) would increase from the current 7 million students to 19 million in 1988. It would then level out at 20 million in 1989-92 before slowly increasing to 29-30 million students by the end of the century. The number of students in technical or vocational programs would increase from the current 2 million to 14-15 million (from 20% to 50% of the total at this level). Table 2.3: PROJECTION OF STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AT THE UPPER SECONDARY LEVEL, 1983-2000 /a Number of Gross % technical/ technical/ enroll- Year Total vocational vocational Population Population ment enrollment students students age 15-17 age 16-18 ratio (mln) (mln) (mln) (mln) 1983 7 27 2 73 73 0.10 1985 12 34 4 81 77 0.16 1988 19 44 8 77 79 0.22 1990 20 50 10 70 74 0.29 1995 23 50 11 56 57 0.46 2000 29 50 14 45 51 0.56 /a Upper secondary students include those in general upper secondary schools, vocationalized secondary schools, technical schools and skilled worker training schools. Source: World Bank estimates. 2.55 The current secondary school projections and those done for the 1981 Economic Report were both based on stated government plans; a comparison shows that the overall enrollment targets have been lowered somewhat and are more realistic. Total secondary enrollments in 1990 would, under the current assumptions, rise to 65 million students, versus 71 million in the 1980 pro- jection. This 8% reduction will falgjitate implementation of the Government's program and the supply of teachers."' Capital investments for technical/ vocational education would, however, become very large, as already indicated in the 1981 report and discussed below. 19/ Projections of the supply of teachers are dealt with in Chapter 4.  - 23 - 3. TECHNICAL AND VOCATIONAL EDUCATION 3.01 Formal technical/vocational education after 1949 followed the Soviet model. It originally comprised two basic types of schools: (a) technical schools, often referred to as specialist schools, which train middle-level technicians through a mixture of 2-5 year courses at the upper secondary and postsecondary levels; and (b) skilled worker training schools, which offer mostly 3-year technical/vocational courses at the upper secondary level. The Government subsequently introduced a third type of formal technical/voca- tional education (para. 2.24) by giving such training: (c) in classes at upper secondary schools that otherwise still offer academic programs, or in general secondary schools that have been fully converted into vocational institutions and offer 2-3 year courses in technical/vocational programs only. These schools are referred to as vocationalized secondary schools. The training offered at institutions (a) and (b) is very specialized. Various ministries report 40-60 specializations in schools under their administration, with an aggregate of several hundred for each type of school. The training offered in category (c) schools is less specialized and has a common core of general subjects in all programs. Recent Developments 3.02 Technical and vocational education has probably been more seriously affected by abrupt policy changes since 1949 than any other part of the educa- tion system. During the Cultural Revolution in the late 1960s and early 1970s, many technical and skilled worker training schools were closed down. School buildings were converted into factories or housing; equipment was dismantled and handed over to various enterprises or even scrapped. Teachers were reassigned or dispersed to the countryside. 3.03 These developments resulted from an attempt to create a society that consistently emphasized equality and eliminated the distinction between cate- gories of labor, as reflected not only in the labor market and in the commu- nity, but also in the schools preparing students for work and adult life. To achieve this, all schools were to offer a common program, comprising a mix of studies and labor, for all students; streaming of students into general and technical/vocational streams was seen as favoring students of bourgeois background at the expense of students with peasant or other manual worker origins. 3.04 These policies have resulted in an acute shortage of technical and vocational skills. An estimated 15-20 million Chinese missed out on needed or desired technical and vocational education and training. Those entering the labor force lacked pre-employment training and enterprises were forced to  - 24 - recruit people with only academic credits.201 As a result, the education profile of the active labor force is now unbalanced. The work force is char- acterized by a low percentage of skilled workers, technicians and trained managers and by a skewed distribution of staff by age group with the best qualified being those trained before the mid-1960s many of whom will enter retirement in the next 15 years. 3.05 The lack of technicians is particularly severe. Many industrial ministries and enterprises report that only 5% or less of their technicians have a university or technical school degree (some surveys have shown only 2.8% and 3.7%, respectively), while surveys of other developing and advanced countries show an average of 8.7%. In agriculture, Chinese statistics indicate that only 0.1% of the agricultural labor force are technical workers, which should be compared with a global average of 0.5%. The estimate is even lower if only those working in rural areas are counted. Overall, the percentage of the total labor force classified as technicians is 1.3%; this includes teachers, health personnel and others. The ratio of university- trained staff to middle-level technicians is often 1:1, whereas 1:3 would be a more appropriate ratio. This imbalance has made it difficult to find appro- priately qualified staff to be shop floor supervisors, designers, laboratory researchers, and building site managers. Either unqualified workers or overqualified academics must of necessity take these assignments. Enrollment Trends 3.06 Technical/vocational education has not achieved balanced expansion with general secondary education. The number of technical schools increased from 500 in 1950 to 2,000 in 1960 and the number of students from 0.1 million to 1.0 million, before declining to pre-1949 levels in 1970. Skilled worker training schools followed a similar pattern. In contrast, general secondary education has developed steadily: the number of schools increased from 5,000 to 30,000 and then to 80,000 in 1950, 1960 and 1970, respectively, while the number of students grew from 1.5 million to 15 million and then to 25 million in the same years. 3.07 While China's overall secondary school enrollment ratio compared well with the average for other developing countries, the ratio in technical/ vocational education did not. The percentage of schools and students in technical/vocational education out of the total for secondary education 20/ A Chinese study has claimed that it required about five years of general upper secondary school education plus apprenticeship training to make a lower secondary school graduate into a productive skilled worker under the Cultural Revolution system, compared with two to three years if the graduate had received formal vocational education. The study maintains, furthermore, that the longer training was 2.5 times more expensive.  - 25 - declined from 15-20% in the 1950s to 1% in 1970,211 which compares with 11% in other developing countries and 20% in advanced countries at that time. 3.08 Formal technical and vocational education was fully reconstituted in the late 1970s. An ambitious plan to increase enrollment in technical/voca- tional programs to 9 million students over 10 years, with an annual output of 2-3 million graduates, was launched. By 1983, technical schools had enrollments of 0.69 million students, with an estimated 0.14 million studying at the secon- dary level. In addition, skilled worker training schools enrolled 0.52 million students. Furthermore, 1.22 million students were taking vocational programs in vocationalized secondary schools, up from 0.23 million students in 1979. This gives a total of 1.88 million technical/vocational students at the secondary level, or some 5% of all secondary level students and over 20% of all upper secondary level students (Appendix B, Tables 3.1 and 3.2). This is a consider- able increase over the 1970 level but is nonetheless lower than the ratio 25 years ago. 3.09 A detailed analysis of developments since IN7 reveals an uneven development of formal technical/vocational education. While enrollment in vocationalized secondary schools run by the Ministry of Education has expanded considerably, technical schools run by the technical ministries have experienced a 4% decrease in enrollments over the last five years and skilled worker training schools no less than an 18% decrease in enrollments.23/ The simultaneous drop in agricultural and industrial technical school enrollments and increase in enrollments in similar programs at vocationalized secondary schools is difficult to explain given current policies and claims of manpower shortages. Enrollments in economics, business and law have increased in all schools, however. 3.10 There has been an increase in enrollments in nonformal technical programs at the secondary level run by various enterprises, from 2.2 million in 1979 to 3.3 million in 1982. These nonformal programs were originally intended to offer inservice (upgrading) training for workers. But the number of job applicants with only a general primary or secondary education forced enterprises to organize preservice vocational training and technical education programs for 21/ This figure includes the many students in primary teacher training and health education. 22/ The quality of an analysis of technical/vocational education is limited by shortages of data on, for example, student background and achieve- ment. The Central Institute for Education Research could again perform the function of information and data management for this type of education (cf. para. 2.44). 23/ The increase in the numbers of technical schools (from about 2,000 to 2,200) and skilled worker training schools (from 3,000 to 3,400) over the last five years makes these decreases in student numbers difficult to explain (the number of upper secondary schools has been halved, from approximately 40,000 to 20,000).  - 26 - new employees.241 Current nonformal programs therefore comprise a mixture of preservice and inservice training. These programs strain the resources of many enterprises, and their increased cost-awareness and profit orientation will make them less willing to run large preservice programs. Technical Manpower Demand and Supply 3.11 The World Bank estimated in 1980 that for economic growth and staff replacement, China would require about 200,000 middle-level techniWans and 1,200,000 skilled workers per annum in industry and agriculture.25 The annual output of trained manpower at that time was 50,000 and 400,000, respectively. By 1983, the output for industry and agriculture combined was about 100,000 graduates from technical schools and 350,000 graduates from skilled worker training schools and technical/vocational secondary schools. 3.12 The remaining need for middle-level technicians and skilled workers is being met to some extent through nonformal programs. The output from nonformal inservice courses is estimated at around 600,000 technicians and skilled workers per annum. To this could be added the output from the employment training centers, although their short courses cannot produce fully skilled workers. It can be assumed that approximately half of the annual need for industrial and agricultural technicians and skilled workers is met through the formal school system. In industry the remaining needs are met through nonformal programs run by enterprises mainly to meet their own needs. Fewer nonformal programs so far meet the training needs of the agricultural sector. The following paragraphs discuss possible means of meeting manpower demand by economic sector. 3.13 Industrial Sector. Industry's nonformal education comprises both spare-time training (evening and correspondence courses and self-study), and part-time or full-time day courses. Spare-time courses are economical and utilize teachers and space at little additional cost, and with no cost to pro- duction of students or enterprises. Day-time courses entail higher opportunity costs because staff and workers would otherwise be well utilized in produc- tion. Enterprises should therefore focus on spare-time courses for adult employees and reserve full-time day courses for teenagers newly employed or other young people (i.e. it would, in effect, be preservice training). Chinese industrial enterprises have, in contrast to enterprises in many advanced and developing countries, taken an unusual responsibility for the education and training of their staff, and they should continue to be important for manpower development. They might, however, increasingly share the responsibility for preservice training with the formal school system (as managed by the Ministry of Education, Ministry of Labor and technical ministries). They could be particu- 24/ In addition, labor service companies and labor bureaus under the Ministry of Labor set up employment training centers offering 2-6 month full-time courses for those "who are waiting for jobs." These centers reached 700,000 students in 1982. 25/ These estimates are conservative. Other estimates indicate a need more than three times higher.  - 27 - larly supportive of formal technical/vocational training by providing part-time staff and granting access to facilities and equipment. They could also be active on councils and school boards, advising on labor market needs, skill requirements and curricula. 3.14 Management education has been singled out as a high priority. Most enterprises claim a serious shortage of managers, at the same time that planned reforms in the management of enterprises will require a different mix of manage- ment skills. Universities and specialized institutes should be responsible for full-time, preservice management education and enterprises for inservice, part- time training. Some management training could be offered in technical schools, but their students are generally too young to fully comprehend all aspects of management; moreover, they could only be given managerial responsibility too far in the future for such training at the secondary school stage to be useful.26' 3.15 Service Sector. Training for service sector employment has been neglected in the past and needs to be improved and expanded. The increased emphasis in China on consumer needs requires more training for technicians and skilled workers in service industries (e.g. repairers of consumer goods, and staff for shops and restaurants). Some jobs in this sector lend themselves well to preservice institutional training. Suitable programs can be sponsored by municipalities and counties in vocationalized secondary schools, since they would require less new investment in equipment. Training could often be conducted in existing school facilities after minor remodeling. 3.16 Agricultural Sector. Available statistics on agricultural manpower are inconsistent but indicate a large training need in China. The shortage of agricultural technicians to work on farms and in extension services is large (para. 3.05). Efficient nonformal on-the-job training for agricultural workers and technicians is generally difficult to develop, however. Inservice training schemes for agricultural technicians are being organized by the Ministry of Agriculture and should be expanded. Nevertheless, programs comparable in size and content to those for industrial technicians and skilled workers apparently remain scarce because of the constraints of manpower, money and logistics in rural areas. The preservice formal education system will therefore have to play a major role. Many of the vocationalized secondary schools already offer agricultural programs to help meet these needs and new programs are starting. The negative enrollment trend in agricultural technical schools should be reversed and their output at least doubled. Issues in Technical/Vocational Education 3.17 The technical/vocational education system in China is basically sound and quite developed. Compared with schools in many developing countries of the same income level, facilities and equipment are reasonable and the system well managed and monitored from the ministry down to the school level. Although many 26/ This is to some extent also true for university-level management education.  - 28 - staff members need retraining, upgrading and sometimes more practical experience, these problems can be solved. 3.18 The Chinese Government is now embarking on a program of rapid vocationalization at the senior secondary level. Within ten years, about 50% of all upper secondary students should be in vocational programs (para. 2.54). This reflects China's manpower needs (paras. 3.13-16) and corresponds to its stage of educational development in the 1990s, when 55-60% of the relevant age group will enter upper secondary education. Efficient use of the manpower and facilities devoted to secondary vocational education will be essential if the Ministry of Education is to achieve this ambitious program of some 12-13 million students in vocationalized secondary schools. 3.19 The experience of other countries in implementing vocationalization programs has been mixed. Several shortcomings have often (but not always) been observed in systems that provide vocational education, particularly in industrial skills, in schools: schools can not easily duplicate actual working conditions for students; school equipment is often inappropriate (either outdated or in some cases too sophisticated); teachers may lack practical industrial experience themselves and tend to take a "bookish" approach to what should be "hands-on" teaching; and finally the syllabus may fall behind skill requirements. On the other hand, graduates of vocational secondary programs generally possess stronger academic background than those who enter the work force without secondary education and are often more able to adjust to changing work requirements including the introduction of new technology or promotion to assignments demanding more advanced knowledge as well as skills. 3.20 In other countries, a sizeable research literature has developed on technical and vocational education, broadly defined, including t financing and the linkages between education and training and employment.- While the results tend to show that the relatively high costs of formal technical and vocational education are not associated with correspondingly higher benefits, in terms of increased worker productivity, by comparison, say, with general education or on-the-job training, the findings are not easily generalized. The returns to investment in technical and vocational education and training are generally high enough to justify expanding these activities, but no broad con- clusion applicable across all countries can be drawn concerning the relative 27/ See for example: F. Block, Evaluating Manpower Training Programs, (JAI Press, 1979), Greenwich Conn.; K. Drake, "The Cost-Effectiveness of Voca- tional Training: A Survey of British Studies," Economics of Education Review, Vol. 2, No. 2, 1982, pp. 103-125; T. Hu, "Studies of the Cost- Efficiency and Cost-Effectiveness of Vocational Education, "Information Series No. 202, National Center for Research in Vocational Education (Ohio State University, 1980) Columbus, Ohio; 0. Metcalf, The Economics of Vocational Training: Past Guidance and Future Evaluations (World Bank Education and Training Department, 1984), Washington, D. C.; and G. Psacharopoulos and W. Loxley, Diversified Secondary Education and Development: A Report on the Diversified Secondary Curriculum Study (World Bank Education and Training Department, 1984), Washington, D. C.  - 29 - merits of alternative approaches. Despite planning of major new investments in Chinese technical and vocational education, it appears that research into these questions in China is not yet complete. 3.21 Despite differences in education systems across countries, it is generally agreed that secondary vocational education should focus as much as possible on skills adaptable to a wide range of occupations. One solution is to provide much broader vocational education at the senior secondary level that offers more flexibility for responding to the demand for a particular type of manpower as it becomes apparent. This type of education would aim to achieve an intermediate level of qualifications on which short successive stages of schooling can build to produce the required manpower. While manpower planning can identify broad areas of need (e.g. chemists), it cannot forecast with any accuracy more specific requirements (e.g. for inorganic or industrial chemists). This suggests that for maximum flexibility, the secondary curriculum should be broad, and that more specific skills should be acquired after formal schooling. 3.22 It must be stressed that these general conclusions should be treated with caution and their relevance for China carefully studied. They do suggest, however, that it might not be wise to undertake a vocationalization program of the magnitude envisioned by the Chinese Government immediately; if implementa- tion could be phased, the achievements of each phase could be evaluated as the program proceeds. Particularly in China, which has a tradition of enterprises training employees at the work place (para. 3.13), the relative cost-effective- ness of alternative education and training paths should be carefully studied. 3.23 Moreover, despite the overall fa-orable assessment of the quality and future prospects of technical/vocational education in China, problems do exist. The main issues that will need to be addressed as the vocationalization program proceeds are the high degree of specialization, the level of training, shortages of staff and facilities, and administration. An additional problem is the low status of technical/vocational education. These points are discussed below. (a) Specialization 3.24 China's technical schools offer several hundred different programs. The situation is similar in the skilled worker training schools. Specialization and narrow training have certain advantages: training can be in-depth so that little on-the-job practice is needed to provide a fully productive worker; learning time and therefore costs are reduced; students are more motivated to study if links between the training and their future job are apparent; and much of the training can be conducted in enterprises, using their staff and equipment, at little extra cost. 3.25 Narrow specialization also has serious disadvantages, both for the Chinese economy as a whole and for the individual in pursuing a career. Achievement of the four modernizations will require large changes in the major economic sectors, such as agriculture, manufacturing, energy and transporta- tion. These changes will require a more mobile, flexible and more highly skilled labor force. This mobility and flexibility are almost nonexistent now.  - 30 - Most technicians and skilled workers have never changed their employer or major job assignment. They have lifetime appointments within one agency and often remain in the same workshop. By contrast, the experience of countries that have passed through a period of rapid industrialization suggests that much higher mobility of labor is necessary as workers move from low productivity enterprises and sectors to higher productivity ones. As workers change positions, even within enterprises, the costs of adjustment are less if technicians and skilled workers possess broad basic technical knowledge and skills to understand and adapt to new production technologies an8 9tasks. A high degree of specialization and an insufficient general education - base make it difficult for Chinese workers to do this. These changes highlight the importance of a broad educational foundation, onto which specific work skills can be built (cf. para. 3.21). 3.26 Narrow specialization also has costly consequences for the schools themselves. It increases the need for specialized facilities, equipment and staff, which may then be underutilized. Schools need larger catchment areas and as a consequence must bear the expense of providing boarding facilities. Despite large student catchment areas, most technical schools are still not able to use facilities, equipment and staff economically. 3.27 Recognizing the disadvantages of too many narrow specializations, some technical ministries are moving to more general technical/vocational educa- tion. For example, the Ministry of Machine Building is considering introducing a few broad disciplines in its technical institutes (which currently have 80 specialties) and technical schools (with 15 specialties). 3.28 Chinese authorities would be well advised to evaluate their tech- nical/vocational education programs and curricula nationwide. The current voca- tionalization of upper secondary education provides an opportunity for such a review. A systematic study could be made of the technical and vocational education and training needs of major enterprises, after which common elements in their needs would be determined. Training could be better coordinated so that local authorities are not running their own highly specialized schools, with the risk of duplication and waste of resources. The review could also cover curricula and teacher supply, as well as the need for facilities, equip- ment and didactic materials. Such a review and the vocationalization program could provide an opportunity for linking schools offering technical/vocational education both vertically to enterprises and technical agencies, and horizon- tally to local authorities through school boards and advisory panels. Such a review would need participation by the relevant technical agencies and the Ministries of Education and of Labor. 28/ Industrial managers generally require workers with a full lower secondary education, but most workers actually have only a primary education.  - 31 - (b) Duration and Level of Training 3.29 Since few general upper secondary education graduates can proceed to universities, many apply for entry to technical or even to skilled worker training schools. While many courses at these schools are designed for such graduates, others are upper secondary courses, with lower secondary education as the base for intake. Acceptance of upper secondary school graduates to the latter courses implies an unnecessary lengthening of the study time to gain a certificate, subject repetition, and extra costs both for the individual and society. (Currently about 80% of technical school students have upper secondary education certificates, though their courses may not require it.) 3.30 Most vocational and technical courses could be at the upper secondary level, occasionally with an additional year. Eight to nine years of basic educati n should be seen as a sufficient but also necessary entrance require- ment.29 Positive discrimination in favor of applicants from lower secondary schools and against those from upper secondary schools might help avoid having "overqualified" students in technical/vocational education. Increasing the intake of lower secondary school graduates in this type of education could reduce the pressure for places in general upper secondary schools and the over- all recurrent costs of education. Upper secondary school graduates who do not enter the universities might be offered opportunities for further education by expanding the recently established postsecondary short-term colleges (poly- technics). (c) Shortages of Staff and Facilities 3.31 The shortage of staff, equipment and facilities is apparently severely constraining the expansion and improvement of technical/vocational education. Many schools lack teachers qualified to teach a contemporary technical/voca- tional curriculum, and the vocationalization program will require many additional teachers. Although physical facilities are reasonable by the standards of many LDCs (para. 3.17), much of the necessary equipment and other teaching materials in classrooms, laboratories and workshops is outdated or not available. Buildings have often deteriorated and are poorly maintained. Some provinces claim that the construction of new technical and skilled worker training schools has been forbidden. While a restriction like this has some validity in China, given the general underutilization of school space and the possibilities for remodeling existing facilities (rather than constructing new ones) as secondary schools are vocationalized, the need for new schools should be assessed on a case-by-case basis. 3.32 Teacher upgrading programs, provision of new equipment, and remodeling and renewal of physical facilities are needed. This will require considerable amounts of capital and technical know-how, the latter for staff upgrading and for rehabilitating the teaching materials and equipment industry. Nonetheless 29/ Some lower secondary schools in China's rural areas offer vocational programs which, judged by the experience of other countries, are at too low a level (cf. paras. 2.34-35).  - 32 - some actions can be taken to expand technical/vocational education without capital investments. First, the current teaching staff could be better utilized. The workload of China's technical/vocational teachers is often only half that of teachers in OECD countries, and student/teacher ratios are consequently too low. Second, space and equipment utilization could be improved. Most institutions would have to increase their facility and equipment utilization rates by 50% to reach the levels of schools in OECD countries. Third, the high degree of specialization and the administrative structure of technical/vocational education (discussed below) lead to large student catchment areas and therefore the need for boarding almost all students, for which insufficient boarding facilities exist. Accelerating the change to a combined day school/boarding school system could facilitate considerably the expansion of China's technical/vocational education. (d) Administration 3.33 Overall responsibility for technical and vocational education rests with the Ministry of Education, but the operational planning, development and management of most technical and skilled worker training schools are handled by technical ministries and their subordinate agencies and enterprises. The Ministry of Labor is also a major admi9istrator of training and is responsible for skilled worker training schools.3J