Guinea - Livestock Sector Rehabilitation Project

Documnt of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-4121-GUI REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT OF SDR 8.5 MILLION TO THE REPUBLIC OF GUINEA FOR A LIVESTOCK SECTOR REHABILITATION PROJECT June 4, 1986 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Units = Guinean Franc (FG) US$1.00 = FG 360 a/ FG 1.00 = US$0.0027 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric System LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS BADEA - Banque Arabe de Developpement Economique en Afrique (Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa) CA - Centrale d'Approvisionnement (Input Supply Center) CBPP - Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia CCCE - Caisse Centrale de Cooperation Economique DGE - Direction Generale de 1'Elevage SPE - Service Prefectorale de l'Elevage FAC - Fonds d'Aide et de Cooperation IRBAG - Institut de Recherches et de Biologie Appliquee de Guinee (Applied Research and Biology Institute of Guinea) MDR - Ministere du Developpement Rural (Ministry of Rural Development) PE - Poste d'Elevage (Livestock Post) RP - Rinderpest GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 a/ The official exchange rate at appraisal in April 1985 was US$1 = sylis 24.4. From October 1985, the Guinean currency, which was changed from the Syli to the FG, has been floating according to a market-determined rate, which at the time of negotiations on March 12, 1986 stood at US$1 = FG 360.  FOR OMCLAL USE ONLY THE REPUBLIC OF GUINEA LIVESTOCK SECTOR REHABILITATION PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMKARY Borrower: Republic of Guinea Beneficiarv: Ministry of Rural Development Amount: SDR 8.5 million (US$9.8 million equivalent) Terms: Standard Cofinanciers: Caisse Centrale de Cooparation Economique (CCCE), Fonds d' Aide et de Cooparation (FAC) and Banque Arabe de Developpement Economique en Afrique (BADEA) Proiect Description: The project would increase the productivity of the Guinean cattle herd and thereby augment national meat and milk production, improve nutrition, and raise the standard of living of cattle-herding families. It would be implemented over five years and would include: (a) support for the privatisation process of livestock service through: (i) establishment of herdsmen's associations; (ii) creation of an Input Supply Center for the production, purchase, distribution and sales of livestock inputs; (iii) provision of a small pilot credit component for the establishment of private veterinarians throughout the country, for setting up animal production farms, for herdsmen's associations, and for distribution of livestock inputs; (b) strengthening of a reduced public livestock service through: (i) upgrading the infrastructure of the central livestock department in Conakry and 33 field offices and provision of equipment, vehicles and basic materials; (ii) establishment of a training center in Lab; with a capacity for 40 students for recycling training of selected livestock staff, practical training of livestock agents nominated by-4brdsmen's associations and training of representatives of herdsmen's associations on group development; (iii) provision of fellowships for external training of high level staff, and (lv) provision of equipment and vehicles for annual national vaccTnation campaigns against common cattle diseases; and (c) provisions of about 19 staff-years of internationally recruited specialists and 39 staff-months of short-term corsultants to assist in project implementation, carrying out studies related to the sector, and preparing a possible follow-up project. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance I of their official duti Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  (ii) Benefits and Risks: By the tenth year of the project, national beef production would increase by 30% or 5,900 tons per annum, and milk by 40% or 11,900 tons per annum, representing a significant improvement in national protein intake. Net income of herdsmen from cattle is expected to increase by 30X. Through the establishment of herdmen's associations, the creation of the Input Supply Center, and the pilot credit scheme, the project would pave the way for eventual privatisation of livestock service. Through its institutional and training measures, the project would enable a more effective usage of the Government's livestock services. The project involves no major technical risks. The main risks are related to: (i) the implementation of the staff rationalisation program, and (ii) the willingness of livestock owners to participate in the project. On the former, risks would be minimized by the agreement to be reached under the national staff rationalization scheme, a key feature of the Government's structural adjustment program. With the liberalization of the cattle market, finan- cial incentives for herdsmen to participate are judged to be attractive. Furthermore, they are aware of the benefits of using veterinary services and inputs and would be willing to pay for them. Thus, the risk would be minimal. Estimated Cost: Summary Project Cost Estimate (US$ millions) Local Foreign Total Livestock Inputs 0.1 2.3 2.4 Pilot Credit Scheme 0.1 0.9 1.0 Upgrading of Livestock Service 0.7 3.8 4.5 Training 0.3 2.0 2.3 Vaccination Campaigns 0.1 0.9 1.O Technical Assistance 0.0 4.0 4.0 Supervision of Construction 0.0 0.3 0.3 Total Base Cost 1.3 14.2 15.5 Physical contingencies 0.2 0.9 1.1 Price Contingencies 0.9 4.1 5.0 Total Project Cost (net of taxes) 2.4 19.2 21.6 Taxes 0.6 0.0 0.6 Total Cost (inc. taxes) 3.0 19.2 22.2  (iii) Financinz Plan: Local Foreign Total (USS millions) IDA 9.8 9.8 CCCE - 3.8 3.8 FAC 0.1 1.3 1.4 BADEA 4.5 4.5 Government 2.6 - 2.6 Beneficiaries 0.1 - 0.1 Total 2.8 19.4 22.2 Estimated IDA Disbursements: IDA Fiscal Year 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 ----------------- US$ million ----------------- Annual 1.18 1J 1.47 2.45 2.15 1.77 0.68 0.10 Cumulative 1.18 2.65 5.10 7.25 9.02 9.70 9.80 11 Including refinancing of a PPF advance of US$465,000. Economic Rate of Return: 14% Staff Appraisal Report: No. 5701-GUI Map: IBRD 1899OR  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMEN4T ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT CREDIT OF SDR 8.5 MILLION TO THE REPUBLIC OF GUINEA FOR A LIVESTOCK SECTOR REHABILITATION PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed Development Credit on standard IDA terms to the Republic of Guinea for SDR 8.5 million (US$9.8 million equivalent) to help finance a Livestock Sector Rehabilitation project. Additional financing for the project would be provided by France's Caisse Centrale de Cooperation Economique (CCCE) and Fonds d'Aide et de Cooperation (FAC), and the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA), in amounts estimated at the equivalent of US$3.8 million, US$1.4 million, and US$4.5 million, respectively. PART I - THE ECONOMY 2. An economic memorandum (Report No. 4690-GUI) was discussed with the Government in November 1983 and distributed to the Executive Directors in February 1984. This section summarizes and updates its contents, focusing on changes in Guinea's economic situation and policies in recent years, notably the far-reaching economic reform program launched earlier this year and described in the President's report on Guinea's structural adjustment program (Report No. P-4162-GUI dated January 21, 1986). Economic data appear in Annex 1. Political Background 3. Guinea became independent in 1958 when it opted out of the French Union. For a quarter of a century, it had a highly centralized politico- economic system dominated by a single political party led by President Alnmed Sekou Toure. His death in late March 1984, and the subsequent assumption of power by a group of military officers led by General Lansana Conti marked the end of a political era. The present government has adopted a radically different political orientation which enlarges the possibilities for close collaboration between Guinea and the Association. Overview of the Economy 4. With an area of 246,000 square km, Guinea is well endowed with arable land and mineral resources, and has promising hydroelectric poten- tial. It is also one of the world's largest bauxite exporters. A variety of ecological regions and a favorable climate allow diversified rainfed crop production besides cattle raising and forestry. 5. Despite this rich resource endowment, the failing performance of the Guinean economy over the past twenty five years --as interrupted only in 1973-76, when the economy was briefly stimulated by expanding bauxite operations. Outside this period, economic growth consistently remained below the rate of population increase of nearly 3% per annum. Most of  Guinea's 5.9 million inhabitants today live at the margin of poverty. With an average per capita income of about US$300 in 1985, Guinea is among the least developed countries as classified by the United Nations. 6. The economy is severely dualistic as between the official and non-official sectors. The former, which accounts for about one-quarter of GDP, functioned until recently through an elaborate system of administered prices linked to a highly overvalued Guinean syli (24.4 sylis to the US dollar at the end of 1985, compared with about 400 sylis/US dollar on the parallel market). It employed some 90,000 civil servants and parastatal staff. Until December 1985, the remaining three quarters of the economic output was accounted for by an active non-official sector operating on an open black market. This market had in recent years met about 80Z of urban consumer demand and virtually all demand for marketed consumer goods outside Conakry, the capital. 7. Agriculture, the mainstay of the economy, accounts for over 40% of GDP and provides the livelihood for 80Z of the population. Food crop production has not kept pace with population growth, and cash crop produc- tion (pineapples and other tropical fruits, coffee and groundnuts) declined dramatically as lack of price incentives drove many smallholders to subsistence farming. Animal husbandry is a major activity throughout the rural sector, though forced marketing policies of the past resulted in most of Guinea's herd being marketed in neighboring countries. Guinea's commer- cially exploitable forestry resources have been severely reduced by indis- criminate logging for sales in Liberia and the Ivory Coast. 8. Mining and Other Secondary Sectors. With the decline of its agricultural exports, Guinea is all but exclusively dependent on bauxite and alumina for its export earnings. However, its wealth of other mineral resources, as yet unexploited, represents a major element of the country's long term development potential. The manufacturing sector, mainly state owned, consists of agro-industries and producers of construction materials, chemical products and textiles. It has operated in recent years at only abcut 15% of capacity, however, and contributed a mere 2Z of GDP. 9. Major Tertiary Activities have long been dominated at least nominally by government monopolies, although in practice the private sector has emerged in some cases to assume a leading role. Freight transport is an important example. In trade and commerce, state monopolies were abolished by the new government in 1984 after they had been severely undermined by the operations of the private sector on the parallel market. The major case was that of IMPORTEX, a state trading monopoly formerly charged with the importation of basic foodstuffs and other essential commodities. The banking sector was until late 1985 entirely state-owned apart from one small private operation. All six of the state banks were in practice non-functional due to declining assets and illiquidity and suf- fered from poor accounting practices and gross overstaffing. They have all been replaced by new banks established with foreign partners (para.15).  - 3 - 10. Financial Problems. The Government's financial situation has been seriously eroded since 1980, when it was in approximate equilibrium. Tax and custom duty receipts from public enterprises on food and services in particular, have declined as the private sector has grown to dominate consumer trade. Government revenue has consequently stagnated in nominal terms at a level of 10-11 billion sylis annually in all but one year over the period 1980-84 and declined to 9 billion sylis in 1985. At the same time, budgetary transfers to support the enterprises constituted a massive drain on C-overnment resources, these transfers having represented 30-40% of receipts in recent years. Even with drastic reductions in subsidies to public enterprises in 1984, the Government's overall budgetary situation deteriorated further in 1985. 11. On the external account, relatively stable export earnings from bauxite and alumina, coupled with restricted official imports and limited access to foreign exchange, have consistently enabled Guinea to realize a trade surplus as officially recorded. These surpluses have been more than offset, however, by rising net service payments and private transfers abroad. Net capital infl%ws have not been sufficient to offset the result- ing current account deticits. Guinea has consequently suffered continual increases in its net foreign liabilities since 1979 and accumulated massive external debt arrears. At US$300 million as of end-1985, these arrears represented more than 50Z of recorded export earnings for the year. 12. Guinea's accumulation of foreign debt, largely to finance invest- ment in infrastructure and public enterprises, has resulted in foreign payments obligations which are clearly excessive in relation to the country's debt servicing capacity. Outstanding public external debt had reached US$1.9 billion as of the end of 1985, of which 74% was disbursed. Service obligations on this debt were projected to average US$158 million per annum in 1986-88, as against average annual payments of only US$83 million in the 1982-84 period. In 1985, the ratio of scheduled service obligations to officially recorded export earnings was 25Z, whereas actual service payments amounted to only 13%. Tn addition, scheduled debt service on private non-guaranteed debt represented a further 12% of 1985 export earnings. The Government's Economic Reform Program 13. A comprehensive and far-reaching economic reform program was prepared during 1985 in close collaboration with IMF and IDA staff. It is supported by an IMF Stand-by Arrangement of US$36.3 million and IDA and SFA Structural Adjustment Credits of US$25 million and US$17 million, respec- tively. A cofinancing package, including Special Joint Financing from Japan and the Federal Republic of Germany, and bilateral financing from France, Switzerland and the United States, provides additional assistance of approximately US$70 million. So far, the implementation of the reform is satisfactory. 14. Obiectives of the Reform. The main immediate objectives set by the Government were to: (1) correct the serious overvaluation of the  national currency and establish a reliable banking system; (ii) decontrol prices; (iii) liberalize and privatize internal and external trade; (iv) create the environment and adequate incentives for smallholder production; (v) gradually reduce balance of payments deficits; (vi) eliminate heavy losses in the parastatal sector by leaving commercial, transport and industrial activities to the private sector and putting the "natural monopolies" on a sound management and financial footing; (vii) orient public investments towards supporting the directly productive sectors; (viii) increase the level of savings in the economy, and (ix) introduce institutional reforms to improve macroeconomic management. 15. Exchange Rate Adiustment and the Banking System. In order to unify gradually the exchange rate and to enable the private sector to compete with the public sector on the basis of a unified rate, an exchange rate adjustment has been carried out in three steps. Following a three-month period with a second window for private transactions at a fixed rate close to that of the parallel market, on January 6, 1986, the Guinean Franc was introduced at par with the syli and the first window rate, applicable to all public sector transactions as well as the mining com- panies, was raised from 24.29 sylis/SDR to 300 FG!US$. The second window rate was increased to FG340 to the dollar. Since January 28, 1986, the second window rate has been determined at weekly auctions open to all purchasers and sellers of foreign exchange, excluding those agents operat- ing at the first window rate. The rate has been relatively stable at FG 340-370/US$. As agreed with the IMF, the Government has now unified the two rates, which continue to be determined through the weekly auction. Operations of all of the former state-owned banks ceased on December 22, 1985, and are now in liquidation. Three new banks with foreign participa- tion - one wholly privately owned - should be able to meet all domestic banking needs. 16. Prices and Marketinz. All internal barriers to the movement of goods, and compulsory sales by farmers to the state were abolished in May 1984, as were the ENCOBEs (state cattle-trading companies) and the FAPAs (state agro-pastoral farms). On December 23, 1985, the public marketing agencies for rice and other foodstuffs (ALIMAG and ALIDI) were abolished. On January 6, 1986 the price of imported rice and the base pump price of motor fuel, diesel and kerosene were increased to FG801kg and FG1151liter, respectively, reflecting international prices at the new exchange rate. These rice and petroleum product prices will be reviewed and adjusted quarterly, and are about to be increased again. Transport and energy tariffs have also been increased to better reflect costs. The Government has also abolished the monopoly of PROSECO (public enterprise responsible for trading coffee and palm kernels) and allows private traders to compete with it in both the marketing and export of coffee. This has already led to a considerable supply response with 1986 coffee exports running at about three times last year's level. 17. Tariff/Tax and Legal Reforms. On January 6, 1986 the Government adopted a new tariff regime which provides for a uniform duty rate of 10O with the exception of rice, which is duty free, and some essential food  - 5 - items, fertilizer and pharmaceutical products which are subject to a reduced rate of 5%. In addition, the Government instituted a surtax of 20-30X on specified luxury goods, be they imported or locally produced. It promulgated a new Mining Code on March 21, 1986 and is preparinig a revised Investment Code, a Petroleum Code, and a Commercial Law which should be enacted within the next few months. 18. Debt Rescheduling. Guinea's already heavy payments arrears would have continued to rise substantially in the absence of a major, scross-the- board debt rescheduling. On April 18, 1986, Guinea concluded negotiations with the Paris Club. Approximately US$180 million of debt (including arrears and service payments for the period of January 1986 to February 1987) was consolidated under the agreement. Repayment of 95% of the consolidated amount is to be made over 10 years, including an average 5-year grace period. The remaining 5% is to be repaid over a 3-year period beginning end-February 1987. The relief for Guinea amounts to US$23 million for 1986 on the Paris Club debt. However, ths debt service due to all creditors other than multilateral institutions and the Paris Club in 1986 amounts to a further US$100 million. The Government, is therefore also seeking the rescheduling of its non-Paris Club debt in the context of a meeting to be held in Conakry by the end of June 1986, and negotiations with its eastern bloc and other official creditors. 19. The Parapublic Sector. The Government has decided to liquidate non-performing enterprises and to privatize others in part or completely. Consultants financed by IDA are now helping the Government coordinate this divestiture and rationalization program. The program is proceeding satis- factorily: several industrial companies have been sold and others will be in the coming months; asset valuation is under way for non-industrial ventures to be liquidated; and negotiations are underway for the sale of several companies, thought to be candidates for closure, in which potential buyers have shown interest. 20. Public Administration. Institutional reforms are understandably moving more slowly but there has been significant progress. With the encouragement of IDA and IMF staff, an Economic and Financial Coordinating Committee (CCEF) has been operating since early 1985 to prepare and super- vise the economic reform process. Economic management has been consoli- datcd into a new Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation and a Ministry of Economy and Finance. 21. Considering the inefficiency of most public enterprises and the civil service, their overstaffing and the resulting burden on the govern- ment budget, it is essential to reduce their staff as soon as possible. The Government has therefore adopted a phased program of public sector employment reductions. As a first step, the Government has already removed the 3,000 employees of the former banks from the civil service payroll. Following the civil service census, recently completed, the Government will also terminate the employment of all employees hired in an irregular fashion or listed on the payroll fictitiously or without justification. The Government is also about to start comprehensive competency testing of  all civil servants, and on the basis of the results, expects to be able to reduce public service employment by 30,000 by December 31, 1986 below the number actually on duty on January 1, 1986 (including all employees of the parastatals envisaged for full liquidation). This testing will begin in the livestock sector (para. 37). Civil servants and enterprise staff whose contracts will be terminated will be placed "in reserve" (disponibilite speciale), eligible to receive their salaries and the subsistence allowance for six months while they seek new employment. 22. While the reduction in _ivil service employment would rationalize to some extent the management of the civil service, the weakness in admin- istrative capacity goes beyond problems of overstaffing. Most of the civil servants are inadequately trained, there are no standard procedures for recruitment to the civil service and no centralized system of personnel management exists. In addition to the reorganization of the core economic ministries which is underway in the framework of the IDA Technical Assis- tance Project, a US$300,000 SPPF advance supports the civil service census and reorganization, and helps establish controls in MEF over the level of employment and salaries, consistent with budgetary resources. Components of several IDA projects identify the training needs of civil servants of various ranks and undertake appropriate training programs. Other donors, including UZDP and France, are assisting in this effort. Medium-term Prosiects 23. in response to the monetary, price and administrative reforms being underLaken by the Government and with prudent public investment policy, overall growth of the economy could exceed 4% per annum on average through the end of the 1980s, enabling an important 2% annual increase in per capita incomes in that period. Agricultural growth is projected to average 3.5% annually over the remainder of the decade. With the expansion of mining activity outside bauxite and with rehabilitation of viable industrial enterprises, overall industrial sector growth could rise to an average annual rate of about 5Z through the end of the 1980s. Further privatization of trade and other commercial activities should similarly stimulate growth in the tertiary sector to an average rate of about 4% per annum. These developments would constitute an important reversal of past trends in the economy and could enable Guinea to enter the 1990s with significantly improved prospects for sustained growth and savings. This will be possible, however, only with consolidation of the public sector reforms under way, and in particular the establishment of an efficient public administration which limits its intervention in the economy. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN GUINEA 24. The Bank Group has had 23 operations in Guinea including two Bank loans totalling USS 73.5 million, two IFC investments totalling US$15.8 million, and 20 IDA credits totalling US$ 262.70 million. Guinea's  - 7 - disbursement rate of 62% in FY85 (disbursements in relation to the undis- bursed balance) compares favorably with that of other countries at similar levels of per capita income and development. 25. Bank Group Operations Through 1984. The two loans granted in FY68 and FY71 supported the bauxite mining project at Boke. This project was followed by IDA credits in the mid-1970s for pineapple production and the rehabilitation of roads. Encouraged by the first results of these projects, the Bank Group began to diversify and expand its lending program, based upon broad priorities agreed with the Government: (i) rehabilitation and maintenance of basic infrastructure; (ii) improvement of human re- sources; (iii) mining development; and (iv) development of the rural sector. The FY79 First Education Project was very satisfactorily imple- mented, and provided a sound basis for the Second Education Project, which is proceeding well. A livestock development project was approved in FY81 (para. 39). The First Power Project (FY81), co-financed with France and Germany, began the rehabilitation of the Conakry power system. Following the conclusions of the UNDP-financed Water Resources Master Plan, for which the Bank was executing agency, a Second Power Engineering and Technical Assistance Project was launched. It will strengthen the power public utility and prepare a major hydroelectric project to meet electricity demand in the early 1990s. A water supply project (FY79) provided similar assistance, and was partially the precursor of the Conakry Urban Develop- ment project (FY84). The Second Highway Project was successfully completed in 1984 and Highways III (FY84), which includes the reconstruction of the country's first priority road link, continues with a third phase of mainte- nance and rehabilitation under a revamped highway organization. Implemen- tation of the renovation works under the Conakry Port Project (FY83) is also on schedule. Public enterprise rehabilitation programs under the Industrial Rehabilitation Promotion Project (FY81) were initiated, although the uncertain climate for private investment before the change of go-ern- ment, and the absence of functioning financial institutions, have limited efforts under the project to promote small and medium private enterprise. Other operations to assist efforts to promote private investment include an IFC loan and investment for the AREDOR diamond mining company, and the Petroleum Exploration Promotion Project (FY84). 26. Bank Group Operations Since 1984. Since 1984, the major change in policy orientation has enable the Bank to expand its operations in Guinea. In the agricultural sector, the Government and the Association have agreed on a policy which emphasizes support for small private producers, including marketing and financial inrentives, and access to modern technology and applied research. This led to the preparation of the 5ueckedou Agricultural Development Project and the Agricultural Services Project, approved by the Executive Directors on November 26, 1985. The Association's role in the livestock sub-sector is discussed in Part III. In the mining sector, we are providing technical advice to the Government for possible diversification of activities, through the Mineral Sector Management Project approved by the Executive Directors on November 26, 1985.  27. To support the Government's far-reaching reforms, the Executive Directors approved a Technical Assistance Project for Economic Management (Credit 1559-GUI) in March 1985 and a first structural adjustment operation to Guinea in February 1986 (para. 13) (Credits 1659-GUI and A-l1 GUI). An IFC equity investment of US$1.0 million was approved for BICI-GUI, a multi- purpose bank sponsored by the Government and the Banque Nationale de Paris and one of three new banks established after the closure of the former state-owned bank (para 15). 28. Current Assistance Strategy. The proposed Bank Group lending program, supported by an expanded program of economic and sector work, is based on a strategy of encouraging key policy reforms at the national, project and sector levels. Specific targets are: (a) pzoviding, with other donors, non-project assistance needed to increase production; (b' giving priority to policy-based projects that increase private activity production, particularly in the agricultural sector; (c) introducing technical assistance directed towards policy reforms, improved economic management and resource allocation; (d) improving absorptive capacity in those social and infrastructure sectors which support the productive sectors, through rehabilitation, and technical and managerial training; and (e) improving capital flows through the promotion of private direct invest- ment. Through our support for sectoral strategies and investment programs, we plan to help the Government mobilize the necessary increased financial support from other donors, and at the Government's request, will organize a Consultative Group. 29. The Bank Group's share of Guinea's disbursed external debt (public and publicly guaranteed) at the end of 1985 stood at about 11, compared with 8 percent in 1981. The Bank Group's share of service on public and publicly guaranteed debt, 6.6% in 1980, is expected to decline to 3.5% by 1987. PART III - THE LIVESTOCK SECTOR 30. Livestock, particularly cattle, are an important element of the rural economy. Resources comprise about 1.6 million cattle, 450,000 sheep, 445,000 goats, 40,000 pigs and five million chickens. Of the total cattle population, about 51Z are in Middle Guinea (Fouta Djalon), 27% in Upper Guinea, 15% in Maritime Guinea, and about 8% in the Forest Region (see map). The regional dirtribution of sheep and goats is similar to that of cattle. Pigs are concentrated mainly in the Forest Region. Poultry are raised throughout the country. 31. The ownership of cattle is well distributed involving an estimated 160,000 families (1.3 million people) or 30% of Guinea's rural population. On average, herd size is about ten animals. Most cattle- owning families incomes are about, or slightly above, the rural sector average. Cattle are reared for meat, milk and draft purposes, with the relative importance of each function partly dependent on geographic  - 9 - locality. Cattle also represent a means of storing capital for emergencies and for gifts at weddings and other occasions. Most cattle-owning families are sedentary, grazing their animals near the village and also growing crops. Forage resources are generally abundant except for certain more densely populated regions where, in the dry season, cattle move to another pasturage. 32. Guinea's cattle population consists almost entirely of the N'Dama breed, a small humpless animal with moderate fertility and milk production. Its most outstanding characteristic is a relative tolerance to trypano- somiasis, transmitted by the tsetse fly and widely prevalent in much of Africa. For this reason N'Damas have become much sought after by countries with humid tropical climates like Guinea's where the disease poses a major health hazard to less resistant breeds. 33. Herd productivity in Guinea is low mainly because of poor animal health. Major disease hazardt are contagious bo!rine pleuropneumonia (CBPP), anthrax, blackleg, pasteurellosis and rindarpest. Internal and external parasites can result in serious debilitation, and trypanosomiasis is a threat particularly to weak animals. Furthermore, the lack of minerals limits animal growth, and over-milking of cows reduces calf growth rates and increases calf mortality. Parasites probably cause the most serious overall economic losses to the livestock sector. Institutional Structure 34. Overall responsibility for Guinea's livestock sector lies with the General Directorate of Livestock (Direction Genirale de l'Elevage, DGE) in the Ministry of Rural Development (Ministere du Developpement Rural, MDR). The DGE in Conakry comprises a technical directorate which oversees 33 small prefectoral offices (Service Prefectoral de l'Elevage, SPE), which are in turn broken down into about 335 sub-prefectures. The intended function of the livestock technical directorate is to continually survey the state of animal health, to diagnose disease and give medicines, treat- ments and vaccinations, and to provide advice on animal husbandry. How- ever, its performance is currently constrained by inadequate infrastruc- ture, a critical shortage of equipment and materials for disease diagnosis and treatment, lack of means of transportation and, most importantly, the virtual absence of key veterinary inputs such as medicines and mineral salts. Further, staff quality is low because of inadequate practical training and also the lack of appropriate on-the-job experience with veterinary and animal husbandry techniques. The proposed project would respond to these urgent needs. Sector Education and Staffinz 35. Guinea has two intermediate-level livestock colleges and three higher level facilities. Some senior livestock personnel of the MDR have studied abroad. However, their courses were often poorly adapted to tropical livestock conditions. Most sector staff graduated from national institutions in which the quality of education is inadequate. They lack  - 10 - the most basic library, laboratory, and practical training facilities, and curricula are often only marginally relevant to sector needs. Moreover, teachers are generally recent graduates of the same institutions who lack the specialized training and field experience to be effective. 36. The Government's past policy had been to guarantee jobs to all graduates of its higher education system. As a result, the livestock service is overstaffed and enrollments at the educational institutions are too high. The number of technicians and veterinarians employed in the sector stood at 1,800 at the end of 1985, while the requirement for an effective service is about 620. This is a burden on the budget (the annual wage bill has increased from 77 million sylis in 1983 to about 160 million sylis in 1985), and substantially decreases sectoral efficiency. 37. Aware of this problem, the Government has stopped, until 1990, enrollment in all institutes training rural sector technicians. Under the ongoing economic reform program supported by an IDA Structural Adjustment Credit (SAC), it has decided to freeze recruitments and began to reduce civil service staffing levels (para. 21). The Government will implement testing operations of high and middle level staff in the livestock sector in order to identify redundant staff. The proposed project would also help to reorient some redundant staff with marketable skills to productive areas in the livestock sector through the provision of credit (para. 54). Sector Financing and Taxation 38. Funding of the livestock sector is made primarily through the national budget, which finances about 90Z of sector expenses. This source is supplemented by the regional budgets which finance some operating costs. Over 90Z of the national budget contribution is used for paying salaries. Until recently, government revenues from the livestock sector stemmed primarily from the "vaccination tax", an inappropriately named assessment which was essentially an annual cattle head tax of 15 sylis per adult animal. Collection was based on the annual census conducted by livestock services which is also used as as basis for estimating vaccination needs. However, because herdsmen inaccurately report herd size to census takers and evade the tax collectors, the amount of money obtained annually (4 million sylis) was less than the cost of the collection effort. For this reason and due to the negative impact of the tax on herdsmen's attitudes toward the livestock service, the Government eliminated the vaccination tax in March 1986. Past Lending Experience 39. The Association financed a Livestock Development Project in FY81 (Cr. 1063, FY81, SDR 13.3 million) that was to help the Government tackle the major causes of low cattle productivity. The major activities of the project included vaccination against common cattle diseases, sales of medicines and mineral licks to herdsmen, and upgrading of livestock husbandry and veterinary support services. Project implementation encountered difficulties from the start due to constraints in local cost  - 11 - financing and the old regime's resistance to respecting conditionalities relating to marketing, taxation and overstaffing. In view of the lack of progress on the marketing issue in particular, IDA suspended disbursements in April 1983 and the Credit was cancelled in September 1983. 40. After the change in gover.ment in April 1984, the new leaders abolished the state livestock marketing agency (ENCOBE) and requested the Association to reactivate the Credit. In view of this positive development and the Government's new macro economic and institutional development policies, the Association agreed to prepare a new project. Lessons learnt from the cancelled project have been fully taken into consideration in the design of the proposed project. They relate to sector policy and staffing, project organization and the availability of local counterpart funds. Sector Strategy and Rationale for the Association's Involvement 41. Guinea's livestock services have been ineffective so far due to poor management and overstaffing. This has contributed to inadequate funding of operating costs. At the same time, the livestock owners are increasingly aware of the benefits of controlling common diseases and using medicines. Moreover, they are prepared to pay for the services themselves. Consequently, the Government has decided to reorganize livestock services with increasing reliance on the initiatives of the private sector. How- ever, under Guinean conditions, where the experience of the private sector is limited, handing over animal health and husbandry services to the private sector can only be done gradually. The Government has therefore a two-pronged approach: (a) introduce and support privatization in the development of the livestock sector; and (b) strengthen a reduced public livestock service and reorient it to tasks of public interest such as vaccination against epidemic diseases, research and extension. 42. The Association's involvement through the proposed project is essential to help the Government implement its new strategy and rehabi- litate a sector with significant potential. It would also provide concrete examples for the reduction of public sector employment, decentralization of public sector activities, and the privatization process which are the Government's main preoccupations in restructuring the economy.  - 12 - PART IV - THE PROJECT Obiectives and Description 43. As noted, the project was prepared after the Government had requested the Association to reactivate Credit 1063 (FY81) which was cancelled in 1983 (para. 39). The project was appraised in May 1985. Negotiations were held in Washington in March 1986 with a delegation led by H.E. Alhousseny Fofana, Minister of Rural Development. The Staff Appraisal Report No. 5701-GUI is being circulated separately to the Executive Directors. Supplementary project data appear in Annex III. 44. The objective of the project would be to increase the produc- tivity of the Guinean livestock sector thereby augmenting national meat and milk production, improving nutrition, and raising the standard of living of some 160,000 livestock-owning families. This would be achieved through (i) vaccination against common cattle diseases; (ii) provision of medicines, feeds, and mineral licks; and (iii) upgrading of the livestock husbandry and veterinary support service. The project would also attempt to create an environment conducive to privatization of livestock services and pro- vision of inputs. 45. The project to be implemented over five years, would have a country-wide coverage and would include: (a) Support for the privatization process through: (i) the establishment of about 45 herdsmen's associations which would employ heir own agents for simple animal health treatments and the sales of livestock inputs (vaccines, medicines and mineral licks); (ii) the creation of an input supply center (Centrale d'Approvisionnement, CA) at Conakry for the production, purchase, distribution and sale of livestock inputs; and (iii) the provision of a small pilot credit scheme for private veterinarians, animal production farms, herders' associations, and input suppliers. (b) Strengthening of a reduced public livestock service through: (i) the construction and renovation of buildings for the DGE in Conakry including the diagnostic laboratory, 22 SPE and provision of equipment, vehicles and basic materials to DGE, 33 SPEs and 320 livestock posts (Poste d'Elevaxe, PE); (ii) the establishment of a training center in Laba for recycling training of about 240 livestock staff, training of livestock agents nominated by herdsmen's associations, and training of  - 13 - representatives of herdsmen's associations on group develop- ment; (iii) provision of fellowships for external training of high level staff; and (iv) provision of equipment and vehicles for annual national vaccination campaigns against common cattle diseases. (c) Provision of 19 staff-years of internationally recruited resident specialists and about 39 staff-months of short-term consultants to assist in project implementation, carrying out of studies related to the sector, and preparation of a possible follow-up project. Project Implementation 46. Establishment of Herdsmen's Associations. To decentralize animal health and husbandry services and to privatize the supply and distribution of livestock inputs, the project would attempt, on a pilot basis, to establish herdsmen's associations at the village level. Each association would consist of about 700 herdsmen, owning about 7,000 cattle, and 4,000 sheep and goats. The group would then nominate its own agent who would be trained under the proposed project to perform simple treatments of animals (i.e. vaccination, castration,) and to be responsible for purchases and sales of livestock inputs to the association's members. The association would be legally established by the approval of its statute by the Prefet concerned in each prefecture. A draft model statute would be prepared and would be available for IDA review and comment by June 30, 1987. 47. To provide incentives for forming groups, each association would receive an inItial stock of livestock inputs, including medicines and mineral licks, free of charge from the CA. The value of the stock would vary according to the nlmber of cattle in the association but it would not exceed about US$3,500 equivalent. Sale proceeds from the initial stock, including a profit margin of about 15% would constitute a revolving fund for the association (para. 51). It would then be used for stock replenish- ment, for payment of services of livestock agents, and for constituting the capital of the association. In addition, the project would provide a small pilot credit fund of about US$200,000 for the associations to invest in infrastructure and productive facilities such as stores, water points, etc. (para. 54). 48. The project would finance the service of an internationally recruited expert to work exclusively on group development for about three years. Assisted by a qualified Guinean who would eventually take over the task, the specialist would work directly with the herdsmen in forming groups, draft the model statute for the associations, and help train livestock staff and the associations' representatives in matters related to group development. It is expected that about 6 groups would be in  - 14 - operation by the second year of the Project, 16 by the third year, 30 by the fourth year and 45 by the fifth year. Similar experiences in the region show that when herdsmen's associations are created for economic purposes such as those indicated above, they often work and continue after the withdrawal of direct support from a project authority. 49. Livestock Inputs. Improving animal health and husbandry services requires increasing the availability of livestock inputs. To this end, the enactment of a satisfactory statute for the establishment of the Input Supply Center would be a condition of Credit effectiveness. Government established the CA in May 1986 with a satisfactory statute. In the begin- ning, the state will have to be the sole owner. However, the operation and management of CA would be reviewed annually between the Government and IDA to examine the possibility of a takeover by the private sector. 50. The project would renovate an existing warehouse located near DGE for CA's storage needs and finance the purchases of livestock inputs for CA for four years. Accumulated sales proceeds, by the end of that period, estimated at FG 570 million (US$1.6 million equivalent) would be used to finance the initial stocks of inputs for associations to be created after the financing period. It would also be used for stock replenishment, including incremental purchases beyond the project implementation period. To the extent possible, delivery of livestock inputs to sale points would be contracted to the private sector and the cost of the private services has been included in the project cost. 51. Livestock inputs would be distributed to DPEs, private veteri- narians, retail shops to be introduced under the project, and pharmacies for sales on consignment to herdsmen's associations and individual herds- men. Sale prices of livestock inputs from the CA would include a mark-up of about 25% that would cover all operating costs, and a profit that would render CA attractive for eventual takeover by the private sector. Sales prices from the intermediate distribution points would include a 25% mark-up for sales directly to individual herdsmen and 1OZ to herdsmen's associations. Herdsmen's associations would receive a 15% mark-up for sales of livestock inputs to their members. 52. CA would import most medicines except for vaccines which would be purchased from the vaccine production laboratory in Kindia. This labora- tory which received assistance from UNDPIFAO before 1980, the Association through Credit 1063 (para. 39) in 1982-83, and UNDP in 1983-84, can poten- tially meet the vaccine production requirements for the project. The main constraint to the production is the availability of regular electricity and water. The project would help rehabilitate this laboratory which has been largely underutilized. It would provide funds to install a voltage stabi- lizer and a water storage tank and to purchase basic laboratory material. The vaccine production unit used to be an integral part of a larger labora- tory for diagnosis of human disease (L'Institut de Recherches et de Biologie Appliquee de la Guinee - IRBAG). The administration of the unit was transferred from IRBAG to DGE in April 1986. The unit would have a  - 15 - separate accounting system and would be provided with a specialist to help supervise the productioa process. 53. Mineral licks would be produced in a small workshop to be located at Coyah. The workshop, a small building housing a simple mixer and a small warehouse (about US$70,000), would have four persons initially hired and paid by DGE during the transitional period until it could be incorpo- rated into the CA and be taken over by the private sector. 54. Pilot Credit Scheme. The line of credit would be administered by a commercial bank in Guinea. A Subsidiary Loan Agreement between the Government and a commercial bank under terms and conditions acceptable to IDA would be executed prior to disbursement of the pilot credit funds. The state would bear the foreign exchange risk. Each loan category would be subject to the following limits: (a) US$170,000 for the establishment of private veterinarian practices with each loan not more than US$8,000; (b) US$500,000 for the animal production farms with each loan not more than US$10,000; (c) US$200,000 for the herdsmen's associations with each loan not more than US$10,000; and (d) US$150,000 for setting up retail shops with each loan not more than US$3,500. Financing terms would vary accord- ing to types of loans and interest rates would vary between 8 and 12%. Participants, who would be screened for suitability, would have to contri- bute at least 10 of the investment costs. Each loan application would be scrutinized by the SPE concerned and forwarded to DGE for review. A committee consisting of the Director of DGE, Technical Director and Financial Director would be established for this purpose. The loan appli- cations would then be forwarded to the commercial bank for decision. The commercial bank would be responsible for repayment collection and would bear the commercial risk. The first two of each type of loan, except for those to herdsmen's associations which would be financed by CCCE, would be subject to IDA approval. 55. UpRrading of Public Livestock Service. While private veteri- narian services are being developed, the livestock administration of the MDR would play an important role in improving animal health and provision of inputs. The staff would be reduced from the current 1,800 to the required 620 according to a satisfactory staffing plan based on the results of tests administered to all livestock staff and incentive measures (para. 21). The submission of the staffing plan with a satisfactory calendar for the retrenchment of the redundant livestock staff will be a condition of Credit effectiveness. The Government would not change the agreed plan without IDA's prior consent during the project implementation period. 56. The DGE would be responsible for detailed implementation of the project's activities. An Administration and Finance Department, headed by a Financial Director would handle project finances, accounts, procurement, personnel and credit. A Technical Department, headed by a Technical Director would consist of four main Divisions: a Monitoring and Statistics Division; a Training Division; an Animal Husbandry Division; and an Animal Health Division.  - 16 - 57. In the eight provinces, provincial inspectors would supervise and coordinate activities of all SPEs in their respective provinces. At the prefectoral level, there would be SPEs (33), each headed by a prefectoral director. Each SPE would be staffed with a deputy director, an accountant, and a meat inspector. There would be about 320 livestock posts (PEs) at the sub-prefectoral level. 58. PEs would operate as general extension agents covering not only the treatment of sick animals but also general husbandry practices, nutri- tion and genetic improvement. SPEs, reporting directly to the Technical Director would supervise and support field activities of PEs. In addition, when privatization of livestock services, including provision of inputs, is being developed, each SPE would be responsible for the ordering, storage, distribution and accounting of the livestock inputs, and meat inspection. In May 1986, the Government issued an arrete reorganizing the DGE as stated above (para. 56). Changes of the organizational structure of public livestock service which would affect project execution would be agreed with IDA. The Director General of Livestock would be appointed prior to Credit effectiveness, and the Director of the Labe training center no later than June 30, 1987. The above positions would be staffed with Guineans whose qualifications and experience would be acceptable to IDA. 59. Training. Three types of training would be provided under the project: (a) upgrading skills of livestock staff through intensive recycl- ing courses in the country and fellowships for external training of senior staff; (b) practical training of agents of herdsmen's associations in simple treatments of animals such as vaccinations, castrations etc; and (c) management training for herdsmen's associations (president, secretary, treasurer). Additional informal training would be provided through periodic seminars and on-the-job collaboration with the project's interna- tionally recruited specialists. Detailed planning and implementation of the training program would come under the responsibility of the Training Program Director, who would be an internationally recruited training specialist, assisted by a qualified Guinean, the specialist on associations and a small group of teaching and demonstration staff in Labs. An annual plan for the training and fellowship program would be prepared and presented to the Association for approval at least two months before the start of each fiscal year. Training would be undertaken primarily at a 40-person capacity recycling center to be constructed at Labe, the main livestock rearing region in Guinea. At the end of their training, the livestock staff having benefitted from the four to five months intensive recycling courses would return to their former posts and would receive follow-up training on specific subjects at SPE headquarters. Practical training for nominated agents would last about one week at the Labe center and the courses would be customized according to the needs of the group. Training on group development would be about one day at SPEs and would concentrate on the operation of an association. It is expected that about 240 livestock staff, 40 herder groups' agents and 70 herder groups' repre- sentatives would be trained under the project.  - 17 - 60. Higher level staff would receive fellowships for training abroad. Funds have been provided for about 20 medium term (one year) fellow.ships and 30 shorter term visits or courses (one to three months). Adminis- tration of the fellowship program would be handled by the DGE in liaison with the General Secretariat of MDR. Identification of training needs and selection of candidates would be handled by a small committee of senior project staff which would report to the General Secretary of MDR. The Government would assure that trainees benefitting from fellowships would return and work for the livestock sector for at least two years. 61. National Vaccination Campaign Program. The project's vaccination program would aim at providing countryside prophylactic coverage against the major cattle health hazards such as contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP), and rinderpest (RP). The program would consist of about 600,000 vaccinations against CBPP and 160,000 against RP per year. The planning and coordination of national vaccination campaigns would be carried out by two separate bases located in Labe and Kankan, respectively under the overall direction of the DGE. Each base would have a Coordinator who would have full field responsibility for the day-to-day operations of his staff, the supply and storage of vaccines, and liaison with the DGE, SPEs and the CA. Most vaccinations would take place in the rainy season from May to October, aboat 15 days in each prefecture. Vaccinations in the dry season would take place from November to April only in remote areas not accessible during rainy season and for calves under six months. 62. Technical Assistance. A total of 19 staff-years of resident technical assistance is required to assist Guinean staff in specialized activities for which local expertise is limited. This includes: (i) a Technical Director, a livestock specialist for three and a half years; (ii) a Financial Director, a financial analyst for four years; (iii) a Training Program Director, a training specialist with experience in the livestock sector for three years; (iv) a specialist with experience in setting up herdsmen's associations for three years; (v) a laboratory specialist for vaccine production for two years; (vi) a specialist for the diagnostic laboratory for a year and a half; and (vii) a specialist in the input supply system for two years. These specialists would initially perform their project responsibilities as line managers in their assignments, but would increasingly function in an advisory role so as to provide a smooth transition of responsibilities. In order to encourage the transfer of expertise to Guinean cadres, the terms of reference of all specialists place strong emphasis on the capacity of expatriates to assist counterpart staff to acquire their specialist skills. 63. The project would finance the services of an architect for the supervision of construction during the first two years. About 39 staff- months of additional specialists on a short term basis have also been included under the project. This would cover needs as they materialize in areas such as the diagnostic laboratory in Conakry, the inputs supply system, livestock regulation, studies in agro-pastoralism, slaughter houses, and the preparation of a follow-up project.  - 18 - 64. All resident technical assistance staff (except for the labora- tory vaccine specialist) and about 19 staff-months of short term consul- tants, -would be employed according to procedures acceptable to CCCE and FAC after consultation with IDA on the individuals. The terms of employment of the vaccine laboratory specialist, and of about 20 staff-months of short term consulting services that would be financed by IDA would follow IDA guidelines for selection of consultants. 65. Operation and Maintenance of Vehicles. Vehicles, equipment, and a stock of spare parts would be procured during the first two years of the project. Spare parts would be replaced as required. First level mainte- nance of vehicles would be provided by three workshops established under the project at Conakry, Labe, and Kankan. The establishment of private maintenance workshops throughout the country is being studied under the ongoing Third Highway project (Cr. 1457, US$28 million, FY83) and the resulting recommendations would be addressed in future IDA lending opera- tions. 66. Monitoring and Evaluation. The Monitoring and Statistics Divi- sion in DGE would be responsible for monitoring project progress and for its analysis (para. 56). A base line pre-project was financed under the PPF advance. During project implementation, data collection would be streamlined. Census-type collection of data which is currently being carried out annually would be substantially reduced in frequency in favor of statistically based sample surveys. The pre-project study and the information collected during project implementation would form the basis for an evaluation study to be carried out by MDR's Strategy and Planning Office, financed under the Agriculture Services project (para 26). The Government and IDA would carry out a mid-term joint evaluation of the project before December 31, 1989. 67. Cost Recovery. Charges for livestock inputs would reflect the imported cost of the products and a mark-up of 50% which would cover purchase and distribution costs, and provide a margin high to attract the participation of the private sector. Veterinary treatments by livestock staff would also be initially charged at levels covering cooperating costs and reflecting adequate margin for the private sector. In May 1986, the Government issued an arrete authorizing to sell livestock inputs and charge for veterinary treatments. A study, to be carried out under PPF financing, would determine the appropriate level of charges. The setting of tariffs for the supply of inputs and services to herders would be a condition of Credit effectiveness. Annual review of the charges would be carried out between the Government and IDA and upward adjustments would be made If necessary after taking into account livestock owners' ability to pay. Under the proposed project, vaccination against common cattle disease would be free so as to ensure total coverage whenever needed. However, a review of the implications of the direct charges for vaccinations against CBPP and RP would be carried out by December 31, 1988. Results of the review would form the basis for future cost recovery policy. The Government would also propose measures to improve tax collection in the sector by June 30, 1987.  - 19 - These would compensate for the loss of revenues due to the abolition of the vaccination. Prolect Cost and Financing 68. Total project costs are estimated at US$22.2 million (US$21.6 million net of tax), of which US$19.1 million or 87Z are in foreign ex- change. Cost estimates do not include any local staff salaries as the project would not create incremental employment. Base costs are expressed in September 1985 prices. Physical contingencies of about US$1.0 million have been included. Allowances for expected price increases, amounting to US$5.0 million, have been calculated on the following basis: 7.0Z for 1986-1987, 7.5% for 1988, 7.7% for 1989, 7.6Z for 1990 and 4.5% for 1991, for foreign costs; and 20% for 1986 and 12% for 1987-1990 for local costs. 69. CCCE would finance US$3.8 million equivalent for the foreign cost of equipment and operating costs for the Labe training center, light vehicles, the pilot credit component for herders' associations, and all resident technical assistance except the vaccine specialist (to be financed by IDA), and the technical director, the livestock association specialist, and the training expert (to be supplied by FAC, US$1.3 million equivalent). BADEA would finance US$4.5 million equivalent for the foreign ccst of construction and renovation of buildings. IDA would finance US$9.8 million equivalent for the foreign costs of buildings, livestock inputs, other vehicles, equipment for other project entities, short-term technical assistance and the resident vaccine production specialist, overseas train- ing, and pilot credit for veterinarians, production farms and input suppliers. The effectiveness of the financing agreements between the Government and the CCCE, FAC and BADEA would be a condition of Credit effectiveness. The proceeds of IDA Credit under the pilot credit scheme would be onlent to a commercial bank at an interest rate of 5% for a period not longer than 15 years including a maximum grace period of four years. Procurement and Disbursements 70. Procurement. Procurement of livestock inputs (US$3.1 million), and vehicles and equipment (US$2.6 million) would be subject to interna- tional competitive bidding according to IDA guidelines. The construction of buildings (US$5.5 million) to be financed by BADEA, has already been awarded according to ICB procedures consistent with World Bank guidelines. All bidding packages for IDA financed goods over US$50,000 and works over US$100,000 would be subject to IDA's prior review of procurement documenta- tion. A table detailing procurement arrangements is in Annex IV. 71. Disbursements. Proceeds of the IDA Credit would be disbursed over a period of six and a half years. Disbursement have been based on the country profile, slightly modified to take into account the prefinancing of activities that would allow a quick start-up of project implementation, and of the fact that awards for civil works would be made prior to Credit effectiveness. The proposed IDA Credit would be disbursed for: (i) 100% of foreign cost of vehicles and spare parts, equipment and livestock inputs;  - 20 - (ii) 100l of expenditures on technical assistance and short-term consul- tants; (iii) 1001 of the cost for fellowships; (iv) 1OOZ of the amount of goods and services financed under the pilot credit program; and (v) 50Z of the total operating costs. After refinancing of the PPF advance of US$465,000, an amount of US$965,000 would remain unallocated. Disburse- ments against operating costs would be made against statements of expendi- tures (SOEs). Documentation of SOEs would not be submitted to IDA but held by DGE for review by IDA supervision missions and auditors. All other disbursements would be fully documented. Special Account and Revolving Fund 72. To provide the flexibility to finance certain items and materials purchased directly for the project, and for the direct financing of some fellowship costs and short term consultancies, a special account in foreign exchange, equivalent to US$100,000 would be established at a commercial bank in Conakry. IDA would replenish the account on receipt of satisfac- tory evidence of disbursements from the fund for allowable expenditures. To meet the needs of local expenditures, the Government would open a local currency account for the project at a commercial bank in Conakry. Require- ments in local currency would be estimated quarterly and would form the basis upon which the local currency account would be replenished and maintained. The opening of this account and an initial deposit of an amount equivalent to US$300,000 into the account, covering the first six months of project implementation, would be conditions of Credit effective- ness. Financial Procedures, Reporting and Audits 73. The project's financial planning and control functions would rest upon appropriate budgetary procedures and accounting systems supported by annual audits. The accounting system would include both financial and cost accounting with particular emphasis upon inventory control and unit costs of production. The latter would be of importance for the provision and sales of livestock inputs under the p:oject. A study was carried out under PPF financing to design such a system which would be set up prior to Credit effectiveness. 74. DGE would keep separate accounts for the project. Accounting for livestock inputs would be kept separate from the accounts for other project expenditures. Project progress reports would be produced quarterly and annually. Annual audit reports prepared by an independent auditor under procedures acceptable to IDA would be submitted to IDA within six months of the end of each financial year. The audit report would include specific verification of the legitimacy of all expenditures utilizing the foreign exchange special account. Recurrent Costs and Government FinancinR 75. The project would increase recurrent costs (salaries excluded) for the Government from its present level. The Government is expected to  - 21 - finance 502 of the operating cost (salaries excluded) which would amount to about US$0.2 million equivalent per year. This would not impose a heavy burden on the budget. As time progresses, the Government will be able to make a larger contribution to the operating costs, which will also decline with the privatization process stimulated by the project. However, in the medium term, the rehabilitation of the sector will continue to depend on outside support. As the pace of the privatization process would only be known after a few years of project execution, and with the implementation of measures to improve cost recover1 (para. 67), a clearer picture of government financing of the sector could be developed. Therefore, by December 31, 1988, a review would be carried out to determine the balance between the operating and salary costs for the sector, and the means to ensure post-project sustainability. Benefits and Risks 76. The project's directly quantifiable benefits will result from substantial improvements in cattle productivity. Through the project's vaccination coverage, provision of livestock inputs, and improved veteri- nary and animal husbandry services, national beef production is expected to increase by 30X or 5,900 tons per year (tpy) by year 10, and by 65Z or 13,700 tpy by year 20. Milk production would increase by 40X or 11,900 tpy by year 10, and by 80Z or 24,700 tpy by year 20. This would represent a significant improvement in the population's protein intake. Almost all of Guinea's cattle-owning families (160,000) would benefit from the improved animal health and husbandry measures included in the project. Average net income from cattle (in 1985 terms) of Guinean herdsmen are expected to increase by 302 by year 10 and 772 by year 20. 77. Through the pilot credit program, herdsmen's associations, and the input supply system, the project would pave the way for the eventual privatization of livestock services. If successful, the model could be replicated on a larger scale and most costs of livestock inputs and services could then be transferred to livestock owners. This would help reduce budgetary expenditures on a productive sector that could be and should be self-supporting. Furthermore, through its institution strengthen ing and training activities, the project would rationalize the staffing and management of the public livestock service to enable the more effective usage of Goverment's resources. 78. The project's economic rate of return (ERR) is estimated at 142. The project will remain viable at 112 under a combined assumption of a cost increase of 102 and a delay of benefits by a year. Benefits would have to decrease by 15Z or costs to r'se by 172 before the project's ERR falls below 102. However, it is unlikely that this would happen as the uncertainty relating to the cost of construction has already been reduced through contract tendering. 79. The project involves no major technical risks. The main risks relate to: (i) the implementation of the staff rationalization program (para. 50); and (ii) the willingness of livestock owners to participate in  - 22 - the project. On the former, risks would be minimized by the agreements to be reached under the national staff rationalization scheme, a key feature of Government's structural adjustment program. With the decontrol of cattle marketing, financial incentives for herdsmen to participate are judged to be attractive. Furthermore, they are aware of the benefits from using veterinary services and inputs and would be willing to pay for them. Thus, the risk would be minimal. PART V - RECOMMENDATION 80. I am satisfied that the proposed Credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association and I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Credit. A.W. Clausen President Washington, D.C. June 1986 Attachments  - 23- AN I rAcia of 6 czZIli - CfiA =4 m (WIM-^ERCS) 7-0 mm (MST UCDII STINAT) l or~~~U Knew AFIC M"l [WucaM 1awOtk 1oiLb Lou : N O LU IC . W u AU mmA C qI EQ. me TOTAL 245.9 245.9 245.9 ACCLUmAL 4.0 5.7 45.7 cwM cern (un) .. .. 300.0 339.1 1033. CKII0UANS OP OIL EUVUIT) 35.0 53.0 54.0 2.3 M31.$ MPAUM A IT3L nEW POPULATION.NI-IEAR, (TOUSANDS) 3350.0 4490.0 330A Uw POUITIOU (S 0 TOTAL) 9.3 13.9 23.0 20.1 32.0 POPtLATION PMiEcCrLOuS rOPULATION IU VW 2000 (KILL) ..3 STATIONAIT roWUATKON (HELL) 25.0 IPOPULATION NIUSUTU 3 .8 PMLATION USITY ru sq. I. 135.7 i.3 23.7 33.2 35.1 Pr SQ. MB. A01t. LAID 37.5 9.2 125.0 112.8 124.3 POPULATIOvN sAM ciweu (Z) 0-14 YES 42.0 42.5 43.3 4.0 45.J 15-" Tis 53.1 54.3 53.2 S0.S * 51.5 65 AND AlOVE 2.S 2.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 POFULAZoM GEOVW UTZn CZ) TOTAL 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.9 UR11 7.0 4.9 5.1 3.4 5.1 CRUDE IURTH RATE CM T1O0S) ".0 43.0 47.0 47.2 47.0 CRUDE DRAIN aTZ (NMU T10S) 30.3 2S.9 24.7 11. 15.0 GNU RuEPRoUCTION la 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.2 FANILT PLANNIN ACCtPT95 S. ASUDAL (TOM) .. USERS Z Of AR MGM) .. .. ;.L 3.3 G INDEX OF FM Pno. nU CAPITA (1969-71-100) 97.0 301.0 33.0 33.3 *2.9 P7U CIrA SUPPLY OF CALORIES or UZQIDinTS) 70.0 79.0 30.0 S7.7 SO.5 PROITES (Cam P DY) 34.0 37.0 33.0 51.9 55.4 OF WIOI ANIMAL AND PULSE 7.0 3.0 7.0 je 1s.7 ?1.5 CHILD (AICS 1-I) DAIN AT 57.7 48.3 33.0 23.1 14.4 LUL iCT. AT SIETH (TEARS) 34.7 35.4 37.3 47. 52.0 iNrANT NM. lA (pu TODS) 207.5 1".5 153.0 119.S 103.8 ACCESS TO SA5E WMTIM (1P0) TCTAL .. .. 17.0 / 2:.1 '2.4 131341 .. 33.0 39.j0 33.5 67.5 RUtAL .. .. 2.0 19.3 35n. ACCESS TO EXCTA DISPOSAL (I OF POPULATtoN) TOTAL 13.0 1. iD 13.5 23.9 URIAN .. 70.0 536.09 35.4 57.7 R11A 2.0 1.01 2073 20.7 POPULATION P PHYSICIAN 33770.0 35510.0 17110.0 Jj 901.7 11791.7 FOP. PEr mNUSSLC PUsIn 4040.0 2220.0 2570.0 330.4 2459.3 POiP. PER HOPITAL ND TOTAL 1410.0 370.0 340.0 /a 1273. 931.1 VRA 230.0 240.0 400.0 423.2 348.8 RURAL 2730.0 940.0 730.0 3292.5 4371.9 ADMISSIONS HOSPITAL UD .. 1.0 .. * Z7.2 AVERAGE SIZE OF NOSE LD) TOTAL .. .. URAm .. .. RURL .. .. . .. AVERAGE NO. OF PEESONSI ROOM TOTAL .. .. ORgA .. .. . .. RURAL .. .. PERCTAGE OF OSiLLINGS WET! ELECr. TOTAL .. .. 5.0 Dt URBAN.. .. . .. RURAL .. .. . .. uam*  - 24 - ANNEX I PAc,2 of 6 GuNE SOii ISICYq AA U GUIa caoUla EQIYEO AVflAEn) /a Most (muS NcWr sriATE lb REGuNT LOW INCOIS AFRICA NUSI Toimm eLk 197iLbk :z:=f%Lk SU OF SAHAA T RICA S. OFP SANAA S IIATIO Anj'STrm ENOLLIAE RATIOS330*7. IEDInt TOTAL 30.0 33.0 33.0 67J 95.7 .ALE 44.0 40 .0 77.4 100.0 VENAI 13.0 21.0 22.0 _ 54.9 83.2 SECONOWY TOTAL 2.0 13.0 16.0 /d 11.5 17.3 ILUY 3.0 21.0 23.0 1 17.9 25.0 FrU .. 5.0 9.0 &9.1 14.0 VOCATIIL CZ OF SECOIDNY) 21.7 3.2 2.7 Id 13.2 5.9 PUPILteACHER RATO TAl "4.0 44.0 36.0 . ".9 41.1 UCOWAZI 23.0 23.0 24.0 27. 2S.S PAssEOER CARS/TNOUSAXD For 1.4 2.2 .. 3.S 20.a RADIO IECulEMIV /TOUSAND POP 10.2 20.3 2i.S 55.S 107.S TV czvoIvEuI1 orSANO .. .. 1.4 Z. 20.4 NEPAISE ("DAILR CEUEAT L IIIERS) CINColAYC Err TIOSAI POUATION 0.2 1.1 3.7 3.0 18.4 CII ANIAL ANDA CAPrA .. .. .. 0.5 0.4 TOTAL LAB rou:s (ms) 1910.0 2140.0 2527.0 FENALK (PERCN) 40.4 40.3 414 34.2 34.2 AGRCuLZURK (PERCENT) 6.0 n5.0 02.0 77.5 54.5 USOSIT (PIRlCEN) 4.0 6.0 11.0 9.7 16.3 PArICIPATIOE RATn (P23W! TOTAL 49.3 47.7 43.3 39.3 34.8 NALZ 59.4 57.4 52.2 50.9 47.1 PiLE 39.9. 33.1 25.3 28.1 27.2 EC NC D80P1EDgR O 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 PEEGEN Of PRVATE IINOD REcEIVD nY rUnIoIT 0 ovs .. .. ..S.... UIGUST 2001 11h1_S .. ...... LOWEST 20 UOIIS .. .. .. .. .. CommS 402 oF nusemiUsOS .. ESTDLMT AR8OLUr POPERUZZIN LEVEL CUSS MER CAPITA) u .. .. .. 145.5 590.7 RURAL .. .. .. 95.0 275.3 LEVL CUss Fm c uIA U3l .. .. 70.0 113.1 345A RMtAL .. .. .. 67.6 201.1 ESTDIKun Pro. 311W ASSOLUTE POVRTN LEVEL (Z) Ul . . * 36.* . RuRAL .. .. .. 61.J NWTr APFLICL' /a The group avrage for each dmicater are poput.uagebt4i arltSt1c nacs. Coerae of c d trwis mog chE lmiicatorm deends a_n swslabtUto OdAid Is olte umifotm. /b Usal. otlhewi_s moted. Data. for 1960 refer to ay year betuesm 1959 s. 1961; 'Data for 1970' baet.. 1969 od -1971; snd data lor "tht b_cat Estima" betuas 1961 and 19U3. /c 1977; Id 1980; /a 1976; /f 197?; LL 1979. JUI 1985  - 25 - A&INEx r Pane 3 of 6 Dgl4movf5 OF SOCIAL INDICATORS Hmm: Altnovo te daa we drawn rim mas d Auy judgpd the mo audonhaueg rliabk. it dhouled ale be tied thba they may not be inumD yonaiy ompaaak bciw of th lack of staad dae_ed dculitios aud -ump and by difrt ceu_. in coletg the data. Ih dat aMe. noehaeta. umri to ducteorde of maitd. bmditrdiLa.andhrcitecn major die a Coua The li o Brouapam(1lthe tm -nir*ota eorthe aene nan2)acountrygourithsomewhthishera aaemncmcthan de cmtry wnofthe auhiactmhy - X (ml -'ig ii . Eapntm gru whee iddle lieN..tict Aftica an Middke Eant nchota becaneosiotpri wi.cultkl ib)t. In thew rta gra dt the averapa d e popuuaioo weighted arihm hmn ror cmdi inictor andh oy when maonity oflher r main i*a gr" km daa for tha iwakar. Siam i. coverug orcountm aamog tbh indicators dqndson the avaiawlity Ofdat and is not uniformn. maiuo mus be encut i ruti 41aerap ofw ineadkar to_a.hche Teavetam onny usnau in compantg tbe vwlue onr o daor at a tim among thoe eiy and fd gray AREA (tousaned sq.kL) CirU MP& JIt (per rhoarnd)--Number of live b irths in the year Teed-Total surface are comprising land area and inand wats per thousand of mid-year population 1960. 1970. and 1983 data. 1960. 1970 and 1983 dataL GCu Deh Raoe (per t:hemudj-Number of deaths in the year Alkir*d-Estimate of agrculura ar usd temporarily or per thousand o mid-year population; 1960. 1970. and 1913 daua pennauently for crop. pasures, market and kitchen prdn or to Gr Repewdmae Ror-Average number of daughters a woman lie raow. 1960. 1970 and 1982 data. will bear in her nonnal reproductive period if she experics pent ag-speaic ertility rates usully five-yer avegs ending GNP PER CAPITA (USS)-ONP per capita estimates at current in 1960.1970. and 1963. arket patus. calcuated by same conveion method as World &So AttE (1981-83 basisk 1983 data. bag P_Aft-ccqt,m A _m (thona)Anual num- ber of acceptors of birth-control devies under auspicsof naiuonal ENERGY CONSUPTEION PER CAPTA-n apprent famaly panning program. consumption of commercial pnimary energy (coal and lignite.* Pf w i (poemifxmi -t mumen)-The peren- pctroleumL natural ps and hydro-. nuceiar and geothennal dlec- tae of mried women ofchild-bearing age who are practicing or unity) in kilogams of oil equivalent per capita; 1960. 1970. and whose husbands ae practicing sny form ofcontracpion. Women 19U2 da of hild-bearing age are gmerally women aged 15-49. although for some counties contraceptive usage is measured for other age POPULATION AND VITAL STATSnCS gSrous aeal9lPpmatie. Mld-Yw fthew&J-As ofJuly 1.1960.1970. FOOD AND NUTRION and 1963 data. UHm Popmhdion (pJteem of toslFrd) atio of urban to total IdezofFedPmWriau Per Capita (190-71- MJ-Index ofper p(puauo. dplawiut depmeurof onls .a of urban ara ayafc copw capita annual production of all food commwotiies. Production ppilatiof ditaeentdefinitions of urban1es maynd1 t codata ex cudes anmal feed and sed for ag ture. Food commodities ability of data among counies; 1960.1970. and 19f3 d. inldude primrry commodities (cg. suprcane instead of sugar) PpuiAw jeerioe which are edible and contain nutrents (c.g. coffee and tea are Popula air year 2000-The projecoon of popuation for 2000. exiuded); they compnse cerals. root crops, pulses. oil seeds made for eacn economy separtely. Starting with information on vegetable fruits nuts. suprcane and sugar beets. livestck, and otal population by age and sex. fertility rats mortality mtes and livestock products. Agrepate production of each country is based nernational miution in the base year 1980. these parameters on national average producer price weights: 1961-65. 1970. and wre projected at fiveyear inwrvals on the bai of genalid 1982 data. aunpuios untii tie population became stutionary. Par Cqer SuPP lf GCaoi (pecMt fruf)-comput- Strma y popu_lari-Is one in which age- and sex-specfic mor- ed from caloric equivalent of net food supplies available in country tality rames have not changed overa long period. while age-pecific per capita per day. Avaiablee supplies comprise domestic produc- ferilty rates have simultaneously remained at replament lIvel tion. imports less exports. and changes in stock. Net supplies (net reproduction rate-I). In such a population. the birth tate is exdude animal feed. seeds for use in agriculture. quantities used in constant and equal to the death rate, the age structure is also food processing. and losses in distribution. Requirements were constant and the growth rate is zero. The stationary population estimated by FAO based on physiologic needs for normal activity sie was estimated on the basis of the pjed characteristi of and health considering environmental temperature. body weights the population in the year 2000. and the rate of decline of fertility age and sex distribution of population. and allowing 10 percent for rate to replacement level. waste at household level: 1961. 1970 and 1982 data. Poppdatloa Momentum-ls the tendency for population growth to PerC GCpia Sqb of Prwei (gris per Afyl-Protein content of continue beyond the time that replacement-level fertility has been per capita net supply of food per day. Net supply of food is defined achieved. that is. even after the net reproduction rate has reached as above. Requirements for all countnes established by USDA unity. The momentum of a population in the year z is masured as provide for minimumn allowances of 60 grams of total protein per a ratio of the ultinate stationary population to the population in day and 20 grams of animal and pulse protein. of which 10 grams the yeart. given the assumption that fertilty remnair at replace- should be animal protein. These sundards are lower than those of ment level from year t onward. 1985 data. 75 grams of total protein and 23 grams of animal protein as an Apd_aa Desiyr aveage for the world. proposed by FAO in the Third World Food Per sqkm.-Mid-year population per square kilometer (IW hec- Supply: 1961. 1970 and 1982 data. tare) of total area: 1960. 1970. and 1983 data. P., Cpa Pieis Supply f5m A lP and Pa&e- Protein su ply Per rsqk. ogrinuural land-Computed as above for agricuturl of food derived from animals and pulses in grams per day: 1Y61-65. land only. 1960. 1970. and 1982 data. 1970 and 1977 data. hpulario Age Swriane (percexr--Cluldren (0-14 yearsl. work- Chi (ages 1-4) DeaJh Rate fper rbousurd)-Number of deaths of ing age (I5-64 years). and rtired (65 years and over) as percentage children aged 1-4 years per thousand children in the same age of mid-year population: 1960.1970. and 1963 data. group in a given year. For most developing countries data derived Populutia. Growth Rare (pereentr)-foor-Annual growth rates of from life tabis: 1960. 1970 and 1983 data. total mid-year populaton for 1950-60. 1960-70. and 1970-83. HEALTH Ppmkuio GCowh Rae f(percrmu -i -Annual growth rates Lfe Erpeaacry at Birrk (yearyJ-Number of years a nerborn of urban population ror 1950-60. 1960-70. and 1970-83 data. infant would live if prevailing patterns of mortality for all people  - 26 - ANNEX I Page 4 of 6 at the uD. of of its birth were to Mtay the samt throughout its life; PipM-ieacher Ratio primary, and secondary-Total students gn- l960, 1970 nd 1913 dats. rolled in primary and ondary lemis divided by number of 1w Mtalty Awe (per t1awandj-Number of infants who die teuah in the corresponding levdl befom rewching one year of ap per thousand live births in a given year. 1960. 1970 and 1983 data. CONSUMTION Aac to Soi Wke (rwe of when ad PaseWer Cs,pr ethomd popudadea)-Pauenger car com- uwl-Number of people (totaL urba nd rural) with reaonable prise motor car seating less than eight persons; exdudes ambul- am to sfe water upply (Indud tmeated surface water or ances. hearses and miliutry vehicee untneted but uncontamimted water such a that from protected A4d. Recvr (per thousand p.palia a-All ype of receivers boreOblea spring and sanitary wei) a percentages of ther respec- for radio broadcs to general public per thousud of population; tive popuations In an urban ame a public fountain or standpost exdudes un-licensed receivers in countries and in yean when ocated not more than 200 metrs from a house may be consired registraion orradio sets was in effect; dam for rcent yes may as being wit reasonabe acm of that house In rural aresm not be compable since most countries abolished licemsin reasonable access would imply that the housewie or membern of the househid do not have to spend a disproportionate part of the day TV Recies (per thum.dpapaldiaj-TV recciver for broadcast in fhuing thc ftamily's wow ter d rto general public per thousnd population: excludes unleed TV inem ftchin thre familys -bp'd (pffem of pepakdon)--4ora receivers in counuies and in yers when registration of TV seu was Awi to EweaDpn (perca ft f papulati.)eol, _ie, in effect and ,mll-urmber of peopl (toal, urban, and rural) served by m w excrea disposl as percentmage of their respective populations. Nfe rppw Clainc (per rhausd ppulstoiu)-Shows the aver- Excret disposal may include the collection and disposal. with or age crculation of -daily general intrst newpape ddned as a without treatment, of human excreta and waste-water by water- periodical publication devoted primarily to recording geal news borne systems or the use of pit privies and similar installations. It is considered to be 'daily' if it appesn at least four tim a week. PopeWioL per Physlseau-r pulation divided by number of prc. Cunem Ann Attedane per Cai per Yew-Based on the tising physians qualiid from a medical school at university level. number of tickets sold during the year. including admissions to PopAkdo. pfr Nwsin Pwsoa-Thpulation divided by number of drive-in cinemas and mobile units. practicing male and female graduate nurses assistant nurses. practi nurses and nursing auxiliaries. LBORFORCE Pop__um pgr Hospital BnF-catal, urban and rrI -Pepulation Tta Labor Force (thowsandi)-Economically active persons. in- (totaL urban a id rural) divxled by thir respective number of cluding armed forces and unemployed but excluding houswives. hostal bedsavail bleinpublicvandpvate.dgeiespectl ndmeroized students, etc.. covering population of all ags. Definitions in hospital and rehabila tion centepbi adpr itals an various countries are not comparable; 1960. 1970 and 1983 data. pemanenly stffed by at Ieast one physican Establishments prov- FAma (perceari-Fenale labor force as percentage of total iabor iding principay custodial care are not indluded. Rural hospitals, force. howver. includ health and medicalcenters not permanendy staffed Agricmhr (perreaj-Labor force in farming. forestry. hunting by a physician (but by a medical assistant. nurs midwife. etc.) and fishing as pecentage of totl labor force 1960. 1970 and 1990 which offer in-patient accommodation and provide a limited range data. of medical facilities. iasury (percert)-Libor force in mining. constnrution. manu- Ad,ssions pe Hoipikl BdeS-Tomal number of admissions to or facturing and electncity. water and gs as percentage of total labor discharges from hospitals divided by the numiber of beds force; 1960. 1970 and 1910 data. RPAdm Rare (perceuw)--ttat awek, andfimdal-4articipation HOUSING or activity rates are computed as totaL mal, and fiemale lbor force Aerage Sir f HosNeoldt (pleron per Ao&wA*edj-tral. mhaur as percentages of total. male and femal populaton of all ago andriva-A householdconsiss oafa group of individuals who shae respectively; 1960. 1970. and 1983 datL These are based on ILOs living quarters and their main meals. A boarder or lodger may or participation rates refleting aesex structure of the populan. and may not he included in the household for statistical purposes. long time trend. A few estimates are from national sourc. Aveae Number of Pons per Reom-e-tail vhen. and rwur-- Econome Deprendncy Rado--Ratio of population under 15. and Average number of persons per room in all urban, and rural 65 and over, to the working age population ithose aged 15-64). occupied conventional dwellings respectively. DweLlings exclude non-permanent structures and unoccupied parts. INCOME DISTRIBLTION Pcentage of DAelli with FeAricr-eoratui. when, and wal- Peweage of Total D iposahk lxcvon foth in cash ad kiindJ- Conventional dwellings with electricity in living quarters as percen- Accrung to percenti etroups of households ranked by total house- tage of total. urban, and rural dwellings respectively, hold income. EDUCATION POVERTY TARGET GROUPS Ad;sed Erl&meOt Rads The following estimates are very approximate measures of poverty ftary schol - total. mal and fema k-Gro total. male and levels, and should be interpreted with considerble caution. female enrollment of all age at the primary level as percentages of Estiated Absolet Povwrty Income Levd (((USSiper eapits)-apb respective primary school-age populations. While many countries and reral-Absolute poverty income level is that incom level consider primary school age to be 6-11 years. others do not. The below which a minimi! nutritionaly adequate diet plus essntial differences in country practices in the ages and duration of school non-food requirements is not affordahle. are reflected in the ratios given. For some countries with universal Estimated Relr iue Poverty income Level (USS per captt)_.wbn educanon, gross enrollment may exceed 100 percent since some and rural-Rural relative poverty income level is one-third of pupils are below or above the country's standard pnmarv-school average per capita personal income of the country. Urban leve is age. denved from the rural level with adjustment for higher cost of Seconary school - roral. mate and femae--Computed as above, living in urban area, secondary education requires at least four years of approved pn- Estimted Populason Bid. Absolre P'rerty Incme Level fpe- mary instructton; provides general. vocational. or teacher training oentJ-uraff nd rural-- Percent of population turban and rural instructions for pupils usually of 12 to 17 years of age. correspond- who are absoluEe poor ence courses are gendrly excluded. Vocational Enrolimente (percent of secondary)-Vocational institu- Comparative Analysis and Data Division tions include technical, industrial, or other programs which operate Economic Analysis and Projections Department independently or as departments of secondary institutions. June 19b5  - 27 (E3 N.U L P Di 196 Mimi Rat. of &Wd, (Z. cmt prm) USS mn Z 1973-77 197741 1973-81 1981-B ow! at lec Prim 1756 100 4.59 -0.22 2.16 2.00 C _Dmtc Bm zt 195 11 -6.55 7.09 0.04 7.0 QG N 1tlmm Siwip 173 10 -3.46 0.01 _1.70 _ Qre 1snt Balnc -22 -1 21.25 -39.77 4.92 - roct of Cwk. NS 5271' 3a 30.41 2.35 15.53 I.00 ipU of Goos, NPS -428 -24 -20.03 3.46 11.44 - amwUf, IAOR mR AM PMUrMT In 19B3 VALm Ad labT Form VA per ';r !Ms m3n Z d 2 IMS Z APiaafw 71 42.36 202 82.00 351 51.A iustry & m28s 383 22.86 271 10.99 1343 196.36 S:rNim. 5B2 34.75 173 7.02 3445 50B.86 To 1 mv 1675 100.00 266 100.00 677 10.0D Central I emm BRUfm SilAs oE CDP 1981 1962 1963 1964 19B1 19X2 1983 19Bs stuZ Remit 11.52 15.35 10.23 10.74 32.68 40.98 23.17 21.0 Qzrrt DMWIurT 7.04 9.09 7.B0 9.92 19.97 24.27 17.67 19.4 Ogru Sopi 2 4.4B 6.26 2.43 .83 12.71 16.71 5.51 1.6 C~,1ra1 Vy.~ilnau 5.73 6.34 2.93 3.85 16.25 11.58 6.65 7.5 Brerll AmlstaE 1.80 0.83 0.83 -.22 5.12 2.21 1.86 -.A O%t) lar, a22 ADS PRIM BIUIUn Syirs Dec. 19B0 Dec. 1981 Dec. 1962 Da:. 1983 miy ani quesi-sa 12.50 17.19 16.16 17.55 B3k Creit to Public Sector 18.50 18.28 15.59 17.78 Blk Crefit to Private Sector 1.21 1.02 0.59 0.63 1980 1961 1962 1963 qey ai q Suei-iuy as Z of G 77.4 49.69 39.6 40.28 Gmura Prlce Inc (1981-100) 91.9 IOD.0 104.4 116.4 Aml Z Chanp in Bock Credit to Public Sector 114.9 -6.65 -10.00 14.34 BI c Cruit to Prie Sector 60.3 -16.OD -62.16 6.71 October 22. 195  - 28 - ManN6eff 6 uSP IC OP SUhIA BuLaN or PATim "a7' apc "i *oz (Rei1d8 curMnssY (9-t- tports of 366 496 693 444 503 527 Imorts of CGods -333 -395 -4 -380 -S0 -42 Tred Selaace 31 101t As U 22 9 Servites nd Ptivate Trasfers (net) -97 -" -121 -tZA -140 -140 Intermct N A LST Debt -23 -23 -22 -25 -21 -21 Ineet_mt Income -16 -A -56 -S -70 -69 Other Se-aice (tne) -49 -21 -11 -36 -40 -0 wlrarAs' emittnces -7 -4 -9 -9 -9 -10 Offtcial Tranefere lust) 9 17 14 26 13 19 alace an Current Account -57 It 4 -34 a -22 Direct Forein Investment 17 22 30 23 31 SA Net IIS Enrrovig 37 14 53 20 62 -25 Diebursemente. Public Borrowing 131 119 142 S7 92 79 Amrtiatiet . Public Borrowing -65 -73 -61l -53 -46 -M Subtotal. Public lorrowing 66 A6 31 34 A6 -3 Private Sector (ete) -29 -32 -23 -14 16 -20 Otber Capttal (neti, -1 I 11 31 -3 -12 other Items .i.e - -42 -90 -99 -56 -133 -U Cange to Resrves c- Inres) 1/ 29 34 72 11 42 63 Grsa leserve ( snd yer) *5 101 92 133 129 Net easrves (ad year) Sl -204 -240 -76 -C7 -142 -205 Fuele ed Related Matertal. TIperte 56 U 97 * 33 37 of which: Petroleum 36 34 97 86 33 37 Esparta 0 0 0 0 0 0 xnu or rcracz 1975 1976 1977 1973 1979 1930 1931 1982 1933 1084 SylIioUSS 20.33 21.33 21.14 19.72 19.11 11.97 20.93 22.36 23.37 ?4.29 URCRMuiISK EWPOXTS (Average 193-04) Mas6uL Dir D eeber 31. 19U4 (in consetnt 1932 price) Bauxite 334.4 70.1 Public Debt Aluinta 127.0 26.6 Includi Undiebursed 1570.4 Diamend 646 1.4 Outstaning & Diabured 1167.3 Agrical turl Comeoditie 9.2 1.9 Total 477.2 100.0 DEBT SImCE IRATIOS POM 1934 - 11W/mA LDTING (March 31. 1985) Scheduled Service Payments 3443 US$ sin Public 34.0 IaRD IDA Privac Debt lion Guaranteed 11.3 Outstanding 4 Dtbarurd 41.5 108.3 Undisbured 0.0 84.4 Outstandi inclt&ns undiaburaid 41.5 194.7 Actual Service Paymenct Public Debt 19.9 Private Debt oan Cuaranc d D.a. 11 Nsrcbadise exportcllports only. 21 Including capital cracafers toe and Investmnt on behalf of . stat enterprises. 3/ Cr IMlicie deflator. 4/ includes errors end omisions. and SDR allcations In 1930 and 1931. 1/ Discrepenccas due to different echange rats. 6/ Debit balance of $213 mlllo uneor bilateral payment arrangements converted 1931482 to ILT loan. 71 Period geomeric average. I/ Debt service as a percentage of mrdefdia exports. Occabor 22. 1985  - 29 - Annex II Page 1 of 2 THE REPUBLIC OF GUINEA LIVESTOCK CREDIT STATUS OF WORLD BANK OPERATIONS IN GUINEA A. Statement of Bank Loans and IDA Credits (as of March 31. 1986)* (USS MilIIon) Credit Number Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA 1/ Undisbursed ,/ Two loans and throe Credit. have been fully disbursed 73.56 28.99 870-GUI 1979 Guinea First Water Supply and Sanitation 12.50 0.29 952-CUI 1980 Quinn Rice Developmnt 10.40 6.15 953-GUI 1980 Cuinea Second Highway 13.00 0.66 1063-CUI 1981 Cuinea Livestock Development 2.11 6.17 1085-CUI 1981 Cuinea Power 28.60 0.35 1234-GUI 1982 Guinea Industrial Rehabilitation 19.66 11.19 and Promotion 1341-WI 1983 Cuinea Second Education 11.00 8.18 1382-CUI 1983 Guinea Conakry Port la.6 3.61 1438-GUI 1984 Cuinea Petroleum Exploration Promotion 8.00 4.24 1457-GUI 1984 Cuinea Third Highway 28.30 27.16 1466-GUI 1984 Cuinea Conakry Urban Development 10.70 9.71 1569-GUI 1986 Cuinea T.A. for Economic Management 9.56 9.09 :596-CUI / 1985 Cuinea Second Power A Tech. Assistance. 8. 8.66 136-5WI 2/ 1986 Cuinea Cueckedou Agr. Development 6.66 6.60 1636-GUI J 1985 Cuinea Agricultural Services 7.50 7.60 1537-CUI 2V 1986 Guinea Mineral Sector Management 3.96 3.90 1659-Pil 2/ 1986 Cumn^ Structural Adjustment Credit 25.66 25-66 Aoli-GUI V/ 1986 Cuinn Structural Adjustment 17.00 17.60 Total 73.56 262.70 141.61 of which has been repaid 1:6.12 0W Total now held by Bank and IDA I/ 37.38 262.70 Total undisbursod 6.6 141.51 141.61 1/ Beginning with Credit 1063-GUI, Credits have been dominated in Special Drawing Rights. The dollar amounts in these columns represent the dollar equ