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"tt:,4i,, ;L-V ,:, :' 'N,,. 1: ..".." _ - ""- r.-, .', - 1:1111'1. - " .It'.:,, ".. ..1 . -. LL.!If!'. :, -.: 7o L :,:. : .7t.,,,:..;,:'.'-,i, : ,,, 7. -.%i. ...,-. , ,".,.:,-.i,,.,.""";Ii4", .1... I.i:. 1. -11 VI:; .I ;,a,.,. .. -- ,. .1 I.: . ..... , - I -1 t,.,.-.-I,-,-,- 1,`l' ,. I..-;:, ,..! . ,,-!)'i--,It.v,Pj;,1,,A4m ....---,'.-,- ,,, -,..,.,,-.i,-_. ,..,,I1,1'Ll --,.-,If . -, `,,,,M-! .. ..L..I.,.I--ir.I-.I-.-,-, . .. ----_ _.-", I-,! -- . ,-I , i. ;'-, - "-- I'l,11 L I I .,.-, " --% ., . r,... ., ::., -..; .., " -"' ,.., , r ,;:i."L",.", -V,'i ,-V,'-,,,, o ,,,- -,,-:-,-,.:X' " ". -;'1oz'-',V- -, -,A -I'.. ---;,; . :I, , ;:: , 6.,::.:, , :, .!' "..!,- 1 - - ,. .: ,:,,.11,- . 11 - ,-e .' I ; CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS The Chinese currency is called Renminbi (RMB). It is denominated in Yuan (Y). Each Yuan is I Yuan = 10 jiao = 100 fen In early 1984 the official exchange rate of the Yuan to the US dollar was around Y 2 = US$1. The internal settlement rate (ISR) of Y 2.8 = S1, however, was used in most merchandise transactions. The official exchange rate is now about Y 2.8 = $1. On January 1, 1985, the Government abolished the ISR. WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Chinese statistics are usually in metric units; in addition, mu and jin are often used: I mu = 0.1647 acres = 0.0667 hectares I jin = 0.5 kg FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 TRANSLITERATION The Pinyin system is used in this report. TERMINOLOGY (1) With the recent reorganization of rural administration, "communes" have been replaced by "townships," and "production brigades and teams" by "villages." This report retains the former terminoLogy in one respect, however, by referring to "commune and brigade enterprises." (2) The term "national income" is used in this report to encompass both the Chinese measure (net material product) and the Western measure (gross national product). Where the context makes the distinction between these two measures important, they are more precisely identified. Note: In tables, individual items may not sum exactly to totals because of rounding errors. FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CHINA LONG-TERM ISSUES AND OPTIONS ANNEX E: CHINA'S ECONOMIC STRUCTURE IN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE Table of Contents Page No. 1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS .......................... I 2. SOURCES AND ADJUSTMENT OF CHINESE DATA .......................... 2 National Accounts ........................................... 2 Compilation of Input-Output Tables ...................... 3 Further Adjustment for International Comparability ...... 3 Sectoral Reclassification ........................... 3 Concealed Services .................................. 3 Price Adjustments ................................... 5 Effects of the Adjustments .............................. 5 Income Level ........................................ 5 Composition of Demand ............................... 6 Sectoral Shares of National Income .................. 6 Recent Changes .......................................... 9 Employment .........., , . .................. 9 Capital Stock ............................................... 11 3. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS ....................................... 11 Sources of Comparative Data ................................. 11 Composition of Demand ....................................... 12 Broad Aggregates ........................................ 12 Household Consumption ................................... 15 International Trade ......................................... 15 Production .................................................. 19 Structure ............................................... - 19 Determinants ............................................ 24 Employment .................................................. 25 Capital Stock ............................................... 28 Efficiency Indicators ................ ........................ 31 Consumption.of Key Materials ............................ 31 Intermediate Input Use .................................. 33 Use of Capital .......................................... 34 Total Factor Productivity Growth ........................ 37 I This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance ofr their oficial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. Appendices Page No. A. Data Used in Compiling Input-Output Tables . . 41 B. Data Used in Adjusting Input-Output Tables . . 47 C. Detailed Input-Output Tables .. 53 D. Sources of Employment Data .. 63 E. Capital Stock Estimates .. 66 F. Demand-Production Linkage Calculations .. 70 G. Household Consumption Comparisons .. 76 H. Total Factor Productivity Growth .. 79 I. Personal Incomes and Incidence of Poverty ..... 81 J. Financial Estimates and Projections ........... 91 List of Tables in the Text 2.1 Summary 1981 SNA Input-Output Table ........................... 4 2.2 Composition of Demand after Adjustment, 1981 .................. 7 2.3 Sectoral Shares of National Income after Adjustment, 1981 ..... 8 2.4 Structural Change 1978-83 ..................................... 10 3.1 International Comparison of Demand Composition (Average Pattern) 13 3.2 International Comparison of Demand Composition (East Asia and East Europe) .............................................. 14 3.3 International Comparison of Household Consumption Structure... 16 3.4 InternationaL Comparison of Food Availability ................. 17 3.5 International Comparison of Foreign Trade ..................... 18 3.6 International Comparison of Production Structure (Broad Sectors) ................................................ 21 3.7 InternationaL Comparison of Production Structure CDetaiLed Sectors).. ..... .. ................................... 22 3.8 International Comparison of Employment Structure (Broad Sectors) ............................................... 26 3.9 International Comparison of Employment Structure (Detailed Sectors) ............................................ 27 3.10 International Comparison of Sectoral Net Output Per Worker .... 29 3.11 InternationaL Comparison of Capital Stock Composition ......... 30 3.12 International Comparison of Materials Use ..............se.... 32 3.13 International Comparison of Net-Cross Output Ratios (Broad Sectors) ....... ........ . . ................. .......... 35 3.14 International Comparison of Net-Gross Output Ratios (Manufacturing Sectors) ........ec.ts......................).. 36 3.15 International Comparison of Sectoral Capital-Output Ratios.... 38 3.16 International Comparison of Total Factor Productivity Growth.. 39 List of Tables in the Appendices A.1 Reconciliation with Official Data - Gross Output . . 42 A.2 Reconciliation with Official Data - Value Added . . 43 A.3 Housing Accounts .. 44 A.4 Passenger Transport Estimates ................................. 44 A.5 Miscellaneous Services Estimates ............................. . 45 A.6 Education and Health, etc. Estimates .. 45 A.7 Steps in Conversion from MPS to SNA Accounts, 1981 ............ 46 Page No. B.1 Adjustment for Concealed Services .50 B.2 Coefficients for Price Adjustment .51 B.3 Price Adjustment Coefficients for Intermediate Use of Refined Oil Products ......................................... 52 C.1 China: 1981 Input-Output Table in MPS .54 C.2 China: 1981 Input-Output Table in SNA .55 C.3 China: 1981 Input-Output Table in SNA (with mining subsectors separated) . . .57 C.4 China: 1981 Input-Output Table in SNA (adjusted for concealed services) . . .59 C.5 China: 1981 Input-Output Table in SNA (adjusted for concealed services and price differences) . . .61 D.1 Adjustment of Census Employment Data .64 D.2 Comparison of Census and Statistical Yearbook of China Employment Data .65 E.1 Estimated Sectoral Capital Stocks .67 E.2 Estimated Sectoral Capital Stocks (price-adjusted), 1981 .68 E.3 Increase in Stocks as Percentage of Total Gross Capital Formation, 1970-80 .69 F.1 Determinants of Prodaction Structure (China-India Experiment) ..72 F.2 Impact of China's Input-Output Coefficients on Intermediate Demands (China-India Experiment) . .73 F.3 Determinants of Production Structure (China-Japan Experiment) ..74 F.4 Impact of China's Input-Output Coefficients on Intermediate Demands (China-Japan Experiment) ................. 75 G.1 International Comparison of Household Consumption: National Accounts Data ..76 G.2a International Comparison of Urban Household Consumption Structure Based on Household Survey Data .77 G.2b International Comparison of Rural Household Consumption Structure Based on Household Survey Data .78 H. China: Estimated Total Factor Productivity Growth, 1952-81... 80 I.1 Provincial Urban Wages and Per Capita Incomes, 1982 .82 I.2 Provincial Personal Income Per Capita, 1982 .83 I.3 Energy and Protein Requirements .84 I.4 Urban and Rural Poverty Lines 85 I.5 Urban Income Distribution, 1981/82 .86 I.6 Rural Income Distribution, 1979-82 .87 I.7 Incidence of Poverty, 1979-827............ .. ....* ............. 88 I.8 Urban and Rural Income Distribution in Jiangsu, Hubei and Gansu, 1982 .89 I.9 Incidence of Poverty in Jiangsu, Hubei and Gansu, 1982 ........ 90 1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS 1.01 This annex attempts to compare the composition of demand, interna- tional trade, production, employment and capital stock in China with those in other countries, especially other large developing countries. It also attempts to assess the comparative efficiency of China's economy. (It does not make comparisons of income distribution and social indicators, which have been undertaken elsewhere - see Chapter 1 of the Main Report, Section D.) Section 2 of this annex describes the sources of our data for China, and how we adjusted them to increase their international comparability. Section 3 contains the international comparisons. Appendices present some of the under- lying data in more detail. It should be emphasized at the outset that the comparisons are subject to numerous conceptual and statistical problems des- pite our efforts to minimize these in various ways. The conclusions are thus inevitably tentative, and there is scope for much further research. 1.02 Even after making allowance for differences in national accounting conventions and prices, China's per capita national income is very low, but the composition of aggregate demand in China is most unusual by comparison with other low-income countries. The share of national income saved is extremelv high - well above the average for middle-income countries, and matched among large- and medium-sized countries only by Japan and the East Et.ropean socialist economies. The share of public consumption is also high in China. Household consumption is thus an unusually low proportion of China's national income; but its composition is quite similar to those of other Low- income countries, especially as regards the share of food. Nonetheless, mainly because grain constitutes an exceptionally high share of, food consump- tion, average caloric intake in China is that of a middle-income country. 1.03 China's exports and imports, relative to national income, have recently risen into the normal range for very large countries, but unlike most developing countries, which have substantial foreign trade deficits, China has in the past few years had a surplus of exports over imports. The composition of China's exports is similar to that of other low-income countries in one respect, namely a high share of textiles, but different from most other Low- income countries (except India) in that the share of other manufactures is unusually high and of primary products unusually low. The composition of China's imports is distinguished from that of most other developing countries by the absence of oil, which China exports. 1.04 China's unusual pattern of demand contributes to an unusual pattern of production. The high saving share makes it necessary to produce a large volume of investment goods, and hence manufacturing - especially heavy manu- facturing - accounts for an unusually large share of China's national income (similar to the average upper-middle-income country). The share of agricul- ture, by contrast, resembles that of a typical low-income country. The share of the infrastructure sectors is also similar to that of other low-income countries, but is small in relation to China's high investment rate and large manufacturing share. The share of the service sectors in China's national income is thus much smaller than in the typical low-income or middle-income country, despite an unusually large education and health sector. The low -2- overall service share is due mainly to the small shares of commerce, finance, and miscellaneous business and personal services. 1.05 Agriculture's share of total employment in China is very large - much as in other Low-income countries. The composition of nonagricultural employment, however, is rather different. The share of manufacturing in employment is higher than in the typical low-income country, but by less than its share in national income, since output per worker in manufacturing in China is unusually high (which in turn mainly reflects the unusually low share of labor-intensive consumer goods within the manufacturing sector). The share of services in employment in China is correspondingly lower than in the typi- cal Low-income country. Sectoral shares in China's fixed capitaL stock largely parallel those in production and employment, especially in respect of the high share of heavy manufacturing and the low share of commerce and mis- cellaneous services. 1.06 Although international comparisons of economic efficiency are particularly difficult, it appears that China's usage of intermediate material inputs - most conspicuously energy, but also other industrial and agricultural products - is unusualLy high. (Indeed, inefficient use of industrial interme- diate inputs appears just as important as the high saving rate in explaining the large share of industry in China's national income.) The data do not per- mit a firm conclusion about efficiency in the use of fixed capital, but the amount of circulating capital used in China appears unusually high. Moreover, total factor productivity growth (i.e. increases in the efficiency with which all inputs are used) appears to have been unusually slow in China, and to have contributed an exceptionally small proportion of output growth. 2. SOURCES AND ADJUSTMENT OF CHINESE DATA 2.01 Our main sources of Chinese data are the Statistical Yearbooks of China (SYC), 1981, 1983, 1984. Other sources include the World Bank's sector and economic reports, the Almanac of Chinese Economy (1981 and 1982), the Agricultural Yearbook of China (1980), and Chinese Statistical Abstract (1982). In addition, we benefited greatly from discussions with officials of the State Statistical Bureau, who clarified some of the concepts and practices in the Chinese statistical system. National Accounts 2.02 Because of different statistical coverage and practices, China's national accounts data had to be converted into a form more comparable to that of the other countries used as comparators. China's national income is mea- sured as the Material Product System (MPS) concept of Net Material Product (NMP), which is different from the Western System of National Accounts (SNA) concept of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). (See Appendix A text and Table A.7.) China's sectoral classification is different from the UN International Standard Industrial Classification, which is commonly used in other coun- tries. For example, data on mining are included with related manufacturing -3- industries. Chinese statisticians also currently include brigade- or team-run industrial enterprises as part of agriculture. The various adjustments needed for greater international comparability were made in the framework of input- output tables. Compilation of Input-Output Tables 2.03 Since no official Chinese input-output table was available, a table for 1981 was compiled on the basis of a variety of other published data (including the nationaL accounts, household expenditure surveys, and informa- tion on specific sectors such as agriculture and energy). Many gaps had to be filled by assumptions and guesswork. This was especially so for the matrix of intersectoral flows, and for the nonmaterial service sectors. Apparent incon- sistencies between data from different sources, revealed by the accounting logic of the input-output table, also had to be resolved arbitrarily. Some-of the underlying data and methods of estimation are presented in Appendix A, and the detailed input-output tables themselves are in Appendix C. The first table (Appendix Table C.1) is compiled in conformity with the MPS. The second one (Appendix Table C.2), which is a modified version of the first, accords with the SNA - Table 2.1 is a summary version of this table. Both these tables use the Chinese classification of sectors, except that brigade and team enterprises have been taken out of agriculture and spread among other sec- tors. (The second table, which was used in the model discussed in Annex D, divides agriculture proper into two subsectors.) Further Adjustment for International Comparability 2.04 Sectoral Reclassification. The Chinese sectoral classification, unlike the UN International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC), does not treat primary extractive activities as a distinct category, although in most cases values are given for them. The same is true for logging, while "machinery" in the Chinese statistics is a very broad category, including most simple fabricated metal products as well as machinery and consumer durables. For greater international comparability, we therefore separated out mining, logging and metal products from their related industries, and created mining and metal products as distinct sectors, while including logging in agricul- ture. This involved some estimation from fragmentary sources. Appendix Table C.3 presents the reclassified input-output table. 2.05 Concealed Services. Using the yecently published census data on employment by occupation in each sector,- we investigated the possibility that the small size of China's service sector could be partly explained by service activities being concealed within other (especially industrial) sec- tors to a greater degree than in other countries. Comparing China's structure of employment by sector and occupation with those of other countries, it appears that the concealment of both material and nonmaterial service activi- ties in other sectors is in fact only slightly greater than in other coun- tries. Nevertheless, we made some rough adjustments, as explained in Appen- 1/ 1982 Census Report (10% sample), Table 34, pp. 342-347. Table 2.1: SUKHARY 1981 SMA INPUT-OUTPUT TABLE (Y billion) Agri- Indus- Con- Trans- INTER- Household Pubilc con- Invest- .7INAL GROSS culture try struction port Commerce NHS MEDIATE consumption suption ment /a Exports Imports DEMAND OUTPUT Agriculture 31.67 66.96 3.50 - 5.70 1.20 109.03 88.16 0.86 21.66 2.99 5.50 108.17 217.20 Industry Lb 24.35 241.04 44.77 7.06 14.78 24.81 356.81 115.64 15.42 47.35 29.51 28.94 178.98 535.80 Construction 0.50 6.35 4.00 4.00 0.10 1.15 16.10 - 2.10 56.90 - - 59.00 75.10 Transport /c 0.82 14.94 2.14 0.51 1.20 1.04 20.65 5.24 2.12 1.80 2.46 1.16 10.46 31.10 Comerce 1.15 14.92 1.61 0.76 1.04 1.77 21.26 25.94 0.27 2.65 3.44 1.46 30.84 52.10 Nonmaterial services /d 0.06 1.22 0.08 0.06 0.10 0.45 1.97 21.02 49.26 - - - 70.28 72.25 INTERMEDIATE USE 58.55 345.43 56.10 12.40 22.92 30.42 525.82 256.00 70.03 130.36 38.39 37.05 457.73 983.55 DeprecLation 2.05 11.87 0.80 3.30 0.88 5.30 24.20 Value added 156.60 178.50 18.20 15.40 28.30 36.53 433.53 GROSS OUTPUT 217.20 535.80 75.10 31.10 52.10 72.25 983.55 /S Fixed and circulating. /b Kining, manufacturing and electricity. /c Freight and passenger transport. /d Housing, education and health, public adminlitration and defense and miscellaneous services. Source: Appendix Table C.2. ' l -5- dix B. Appendix Table C.4 presents the input-output table adjusted for con- cealed services. 2.06 Price Adjustments. Though prices always vary to some extent from one country to another, the prices of many commodities in China appear to dif- fer substantially and consistently from those in most other low-income coun- tries. Thus, to make it easier to identify "real" structural differences and similarities between China and other countries, we attempted - roughly, and on the basis of very limited information - to correct for these price differen- ces. As explained in Appendix B, among the more significant adjustments made were large increases in energy prices, substantial increases in machinery prices, moderate increases in agricultural and construction prices, and reduc- tions in the prices of textiles and consumer durables. Suitable adjustment coefficienta were then applied to our input-output table and a new set of national accounts derived. The results are shown in Appendix Table C.5. 2.07 It is from this price-adjusted input-output table which incorporates all the other adjustments mentioned above that the China data in subsequent international comparative tables are drawn. Though undoubtedly inaccurate in many specific respects, the price-adjusted input-output table is probably less misleading as a basis for international comparison than any of the other tables. On the production side, as explained in more detail below, most of the adjustments tend to reduce the apparent differences between China and other countries (e.g. by decreasing the share of manufacturing, and increasing that of services); on the demand side, however, the adjustments tend to increase these differences (e.g. by raising the shares of investment and public consumption). Effects of the Adjustments 2.08 Income Level. The conversion from the MPS concept of national income to the wider SNA concept, including depreciation and the net output of nonmaterial services, increases national income considerably (Table 2.2) - but by almost the same amount as in the estimates reported in earlier World Bank reports on China (e.g. China: Socialist Economic Development (CSED), 1983). Conversion into dollars using official exchange rates and the World Bank Atlas methodology (explained in the Atlas, and in Annex A of CSED) suggests that China's per capita GNP in 1981 was about $300. 2.09 The adjustment of the input-output table for price differences (at the 1981 official exchange rate) between China and other low-income countries further increases China's estimated national income, though not by much - to about $350 on a per capita basis. These calculations thus tend to confirm the assessment in earlier World Bank reports (particularly CSED, Main Report, para. 3.31) that official-exchange-rate-based calculations of China's national income in the late 1970s and early 1980s gave a reasonably accura;7 impression of China's real income in relation to other low-income countries.= 2.10 However, the fragmentary and unsatisfactory nature of the data on which the price adjustments for 1981 were based should be emphasized. Other studies, using somewhat different price data, or interpreting the same data in different ways, have come out quite differently - some of them implying that China'w,real income is higher than the present estimate, others that it is lower._ It should also be noted chac China's official exchange race has changed substantially since 1981, the year to which the present estimate refers. In 1981. the official exchange rate was about Y 1.7 = $1.0; by early 1985, it was about Y 2.8 = $1.0, despite slower price inflation in China than in most other countries between 1981 and 1985. Official-exchange-rate-based calculations may thus now significantly underestimate China's real income. 2.11 Composition of Demand. Table 2.2 presents the composition of demand in 1981, expressed in percentages of national income, before and after adjust- ment. Figures in column (a) come directly from the Statistical Yearbook. Figures in coLumns (b)-(f) are based on the input-output tables, Appendix Tables C.1-C.5 respectively. Figures in (a) and (b) are in MPS while the rest are in SNA. The only difference between (a) and (b) is in the placing of the residual error (the difference between income and expenditure side estimates of national income). Columns Cc) and (d) are identical as the adjust-ienc from one to the other involves only reclassification of sectoral origins, leaving the uses of national income unchanged. 2.12 Conversion from MPS (b) to SNA (c) significantly altered the composition of demand. Household consumption dropped from 62.8% to 55.9%, while public consumption rose from 7.8Z to 15.3Z as the bulk of the added non- material services went into the latter, mainly in the form of education, health, public administration and defense. In (e), as we switched concealed nonmaterial services from material to nonmaterial sectors, the share of public consumption rose further at the expense of household consumption. The results of price adjustment are presented in (f), in which che household consumption share dropped further, to 53.0%, while the shares of public consumption and investment rose from 16.0% to 17.1% and from 28.4% to 30.1% respectively. (This is at variance with the World Bank's earlier conclusion regarding the impact of China's unusual prices on its investment share: CSED, Main Report, Table 3.10.) 2.13 Sectoral Shares of National Income. In the same fashion, Table 2.3 presents the sectoral shares of national income in 1981, before and after 2/ Use of official exchange rates, however, seems to greatly overstate the real income gap between poor countries and rich countries (I.B. Kravis and others, World Product and Income, World Bank, 1982). 31 Jeffrey R. Taylor, "Overview of Studies Comparing Prices in China with Prices in Other Countries," November 1984 (draft paper, Center for Inter- national Research, US Bureau of the Census). -7- Table 2.2: COMPOSITION OF DEMAND AFTER ADJUSTMENT, 1981 (Z of national income) /a /b /c &/d /e /f Household consumption 62.8 62.8 55.9 55.3 52.0 Public consumption 7.8 7.8 15.3 16.0 17.1 Investment 28.1 29.1* 28.5* 28.4* 30.1* Capital inflow -1.3* -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.8 Saving 29.4 29.4 28.8 28.7 30.9 National income C%) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 National income (Y billion) 394.0 394.0 457.7 457.7 527.7 I Includes residual error (difference between income and expenditure side estimates of national income). /a Directly from Statistical Yearbook (but expre.sed as ratios of national income rather than of national income available). /b MPS basis (with residual error added to investment, and brigade and team enterprises spread among appropriate sectors). Jc SNA basis (adjusted for depreciation and nonmaterial services). /d Mining and logging separated from industrial sectors. /e Further adjusted for concealed services. /f Further adjusted for price differences. Source: /a Statistical Yearbook of China (SYC), 1983, pp. 22 and 25-26. 76-/f Appendix Tables C.1-C.5 -8- Table 2.3: SECTORAL SHARES OF NATiONAL INCOME AFTER ADJUSTMENT, 1981 (Z) /a /b /c /d /e /f Agriculture 42.1 39.7 34.7 34.9 34.7 35.8 Industry 43.4 45.3 41.7 41.4 40.7 37.9 Of which: Mining N.A. N.A. N.A. 5.0 4.9 10.8 Heavy manufacturing * N.A. N.A. N.A. 19.3 19.0 16.4 Light manufacturing ** N.A. N.A. N.A. 14.5 14.3 8.1 Electricity N.A. 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 Construction 4.4 4.6 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.7 Transport 3.1 3.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.4 Com-erce 7.1 7.2 6.4 6.4 6.2 5.5 Nonmaterial services N.A. N.A. 9.1 9.i 10.4 11.6 National income (Z) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 National income CY billion) 394.0 394.0 457.7 457.7 457.7 527.7 * Includes metallurgy, coal products, petroleum refining, chemicals, machin- ery (narrow), metal products and building materials. Values of extraction activities have been taken out and put in "mining." ** Includes wood products, food processing, textiles and clothing, paper and miscellaneous manufacturing. Logging and salt mining have been trans- ferred to "agriculture" and "mining" respectively. Note: See Table 2.2 for the definitions of headings la - /f. Source: SYC, 1983 and Appendix Tables C.1-C.5. -9- adjustment. As in the previous table, figures in column (a) come directly from the Statistical Yearbook while the rest are based on the input-output tabLes in Appendix C. Figures in columns (a) and (b) are again in MPS while those in columns Cc)-(O) are in SNA. The sectoral shares in (a) and (b) are basically the same except that, as a result of the transfer of brigade- and team-run nonagricultural enterprises from agriculture to other sectors, the share of agriculture in (b) dropped by 2.4 percentage points while that of industry went up by 1.9 percentage points. The remaining 0.5 percentage point is distributed among construction, transport and commerce. in which some brigade and team enterprises also operate. 2.14 In (c), as a result of conversion from MPS to SNA, the shares of all the material sectors dropped, except for transport which rose from 3.2% to 4.1% as passenger transport was added to it. The share of nonmaterial servi- ces was estimated at 9.1%. In (a) to (c), no detailed breakdown of industry is given for lack of data on mining. In (d), the estimated mining share is 5.0%. The share of industry is slightly lower than in (c), while that of agriculture is slightly higher, since we shifted logging from wood products to agriculture. In (e), after adjusting for concealed services in the material sectors, the share of nonmaterial services rose from 9.1% to 10.4%, while the shares of other sectors dropped slightly. In (f), after price adjustment, mining rose from 4.9% to 10.8% (reflecting the large increase in coal and oil prices). Heavy manufacturing and light manufacturing (whose definition is not quite the same as in Chinese statistics) fell from 19.0% to 16.4Z and from 14.3% to 8.1% respectively. The share of commerce also declined, despite an upward price adjustment, because of a larger increase in the cost of its inputs, while the share of nonmateriaL services rose further. Recent Changes 2.15 Since 1978, as shown in Table 2.4, China's economy has grown rapidly, and there have been significant changes in its structure. The share of investment in net material product declined from 36.1Z in 1978 to 30.4% in 1983. The decline in the share of investment in circulating capital (or stocks) was even more marked, from 10.1% to 6.4%. The share of consumption in NMP has correspondingly risen from 62.7% to 70.9%. The bulk of the increase was in household consumption expenditure, which rose from 55.6% to 62.9%. An increase in agricultural procurement prices and introduction of the production responsibility system, as well as rapid growth of rural nonagricultural activ- ities, have led to a large increase in the share of agriculture (including brigade and team industry), from 35.4% to 44.9% of NMP. These recent changes should be borne in mind in interpreting the international comparisons in the next section, which are based on 1981 data. Employment 2.16 There are two different sources of data on employment in China, the Statistical Yearbook and the 1982 Census (10% sample). Although in percentage terms their distributions by sector are similar, in absolute terms they are quite different. Much of the difference arises in agriculture and is attribu- table mostly to the wider definition of the agricultural labor force in the census. On account of its wider coverage and greater international compara- - 10 - Table 2.4: STRUCTURAL CHANGE, 1978-83 /a (X of national income) 1978 1983 Demand /b Investment 36.1 30.4 Fixed 26.0 24.0 Circulating 10.1 6.4 Consumption 62.7 70.9 Household 55.6 62.9 Public 7.1 8.0 Production Agriculture 35.4 44.9 Iadustry 46.8 41.9 Construction 4.1 5.0 Transport 3.9 3.5 Commerce 9.8 4.7 Real national income (index) 100.0 141.1 /a MPS basis. /b Shares of n.ational income, not (as in source) national income available. Source: SYC, 1984. - 11 - bility, especially in terms of sectoral classification, we worked mainly with the Census data, which we adjusted by removing what we estimated to be part- time agricultural workers among the lower-age groups and working-age women. We also switched some personnel engaged in nonmaterial services from the material sectors into (mainly) health and education and public administration and defense. (See Table B.1 and its accompanying text for the basis on which chis adjustment was made.) For further details about employment, see Appendix Tables D.l and D.2 and their accompanying text. Capital Stock 2.17 Fixed assets and circulating capital in each sector in 1981 were estimated on the basis of data from various sources, the main source being the Statistical Yearbook. Data on fixed assets were adjusted to a net (of depre- ciation) basis, but valued at original cost. Because the coefficients caLcu- lated for price adjustment of the input-output table (Appendix B) suggest that investment goods may be unusually low-priced in China, rough adjustments to the capital stock data were made for international comparison. For further details, see Appendix E text and accompanying Tables E.1 and E.2. 3. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Sources of Comparative Data 3.01 Our comparative data come from various sources, including the World Development Report, 1983 and 1984, World Tables (Third Edition, 1983), UN Yearbook of National Accounts (1982), ILO Yearbook (1982), and publications from different countries, including official input-output tables. The first two pubLications are actually from the same source, i.e., the World Bank's data bank. In many of the tables below, we present this World Bank data in two alternative forms. One is simple weighted averages for all the countries in particular income ranges (e.g., lower-middle-income); these are the figures used in the World Development Report Indicators tables. The other is "predic- ted values" for a hypothetical large country (population of 60 million) at corresponding income levels. These predicted values were calculated from regression equations relating the variables i? question to income level, popu- lation size and other explanatory variables.4 (They refer to a country of a size that is, of course, small by comparison with China; but there are so few 41 The regressions from which the predicted values are derived were estima- ted from data that excluded both China and small countries (those with a population of less than 20 million in 1970). They are discussed in Moshe Syrquin, "Patterns of Development Since 1960: A Comparison for China" (unpublished World Bank paper, January 1985). This paper is in essence an updated version, using more recent data, of the regressions in an earlier book by Hollis Chenery and Moshe Syrquin, Patterns of Develop- ment, 1950-1970, (Oxford University Press, 1975). Further updating and extension of this work is being done in World Bank Research Project RPO 673-51. - 12 - really large countries that predicted values for them are subject to an unac- ceptably large margin of error.) 3.02 In spite of our efforts to increase the international comparability of the Chinese data, inconsistencies remain. For example, while in most coun- tries the electricity category also includes gas and water, in China it does not. Of course, these problems of sectoral classification are not unique to China. For instance, in one rndian publication, public administration and defense is included in other services along with such items as hotels, restau- -rants, canteens, 5arbers, sanitary services, wrapping and packaging of arti- cles, and so on.- For these and other reasons, the comparisons below are inevitably subject to a considerable margin of error. Composition of Demand Broad Aggregates 3.03 The composition of aggregate demand in China is very different from that of average low- and middle-income market economies but has some similari- ties to that of other centrally planned and East Asian economies. As Table 3.1 indicates, in 1981 China devoted 30.1% of national income to investment, a share that was far above the average for other low-income countries and greater even than the predicted value for large countries at upper-middle income levels.- All of this investment was financed, moreover, out of domestic savings, unlike most other developing countries. The share of public consumption in China is also unusually high, even by comparison with upper- middle-income countries. As a result, China's household consumption share, at 52% in 1981, is low compared with most other developing countries. 3.04 However, as Table 3.2 shows, compared with centrally pLanned economies of East Europe, such as Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia and Poland, China's demand structure appears to be quite normal (although these countries are much richer than China). Household consumption share in these countries ranged from 50-53% while their investment share ranged from 28-37% of national income. With the exception of Poland, these countries also relied mainly on their own savings to finance their investment. High investment rates are also a feature of other rapidly growing East Asian economies (although South Korea's 26% investment rate in 1982 was no higher than the predicted value for its income group, it averaged nearly 29% in 1976-82). But many of these eco- nomies rely quite heavily on foreign capital inflow: Japan is the only large or medium-sized market economy in the world with a saving rate consistently as high as China's. 5/ Technical Notes on the Sixth Plan of India, 1980-85, Planning Commission of the Government of India, June 1981, p. 93. 6/ India also has an investment (and saving) rate far above the average for other low-income countries, though not quite so high as China's. The gap between China and other countries in this regard has not changed much since 1981, but was even larger in 1978 (see Tables 2.2 and 2.4). Table 3.1: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF DEMAND COMPOSITION (AVERAGE PATTERN) (% of GDP) Predicted OLI LMI UMI values for large China India countries countries countries countries around 1980/81 1981 1982 1982 1982 1982 $300 $850 $2,500 Household consumption 52.0 67 86 70 67 76 70 65 Public consumption 17.1 11 11 13 15 10 11 12 Investment 30.1 25 13 23 24 20 24 26 Capital inflow -0.8 3 8 6 1 6 5 3 Saving 30.9 22 5 17 23 14 19 23 GNP per capita (US$) 350 260 250 840 2,490 (300)/a OLI - Other low-income countries (excluding China and India). LMI - Lower middle-income countries. UMI - Upper middle-income countries. /a Official World Bank estimate for 1981 is $300 (in 1981 dollars). Higher figure is based on price adjustments (see text). Sources: Appendix Table C.5; World Development Report, 1983 and 1984, Indicators Tables I and 5; regression results described in text. - 14 - Table 3.2: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF DEMAND COMPOSITION (EAST ASIA AND EAST EUROPE) (Z of GDP) South China Korea Malaysia Japan Yugoslavia Czechoslovakia Poland (1981) (1982) (1982) (1982) (1982) (1978) (1978) Household consumption 52.0 63 54 59 51 50.1 52.7 Public consumption 17.1 13 21 10 16 21.4 12.8 Investment 30.1 26 34 30 34 28.4 37.3 Capital inflow -0.8 2 9 -1 1 -0.1 2.8 Saving 30.9 24 25 31 33 28.5 34.5 GNP per capita (US$) 350 1,910 1,860 10,080 2,800 4,700/b 3,700/b (300)/a /a See footnote to previous table. /b Subject to large margin of error. Sources: Appendix Table C.5; World Development Report 1984, Indicators Table 1 and 5; Jaroslav Krejci, National Income and Outlay in Czechoslovakia, Poland and Yugoslavia, (St. Martin's Press, New York, 1982), p. 23; World Bank Atlas, 1980. - 15 - Household Consumption 7/ 3.05 Although household consumption as a share of national income is quite low, China has a similar consumption pattern to those of other develop- ing countries at comparable levels of income. Table 3.3 compares China's household consumption structure with those of South and East Asian neighbors at low income levels. As the table indicates, food consumption as a share of total household consumption after price adjustment was very similar to those of the comparators, 61.4% in 1981. 3.06 Although China's food consumption as a share of total household con- sumption is no higher (and as a share of national income is probably lower) than in other low-income countries, daily caloric intake seems to be much higher. Table 3.4 presents estimates of food availability for China, India and averages for other low-income countries, lower-middle and upper-middle- income countries. China's food intake in kcal/day/person (1980-82 average of 2,548) is even higher than the average for lower-middle-income countries. A breakdown of total food intake reveals that one of the important contributing factors was that the Chinese diet consisted Largely of grain, which tends to cost less than other forms of food. The share of grain was about 84% of the total daily caloric intake, compared with 67% for India and 72% for other Low- income countries. China's consumption of animal products as a share of total food intake was about the same as most low-income countries (implying Lower consumption of crops other than grain). International Trade 3.07 China's volume of international trade has expanded greatly in recent years, and, relative to CDP, is now normal for a country of its size (Main Report, Chapter 6); for example, in 1981, the export ratio in China was higher than in India, and the import ratio not much lower (Table 3.5). China's trade ratios look small by comparison with the averages for other countries shown in the table, but even the "large" country in the table has a population of only 60 million. The same table shows that in 1981 China sold more goods abroad than it bought (there were even larger trade surpluses in 1982 and 1983 - see Main Report, Figure 6.4). This is unusual by the standards of developing countries, which tend to experience, in varying degrees, balance-of-payments deficits. India, for example, in 1982 had a trade deficit of about 3Z of CDP, and other low-income countries had an average deficit of 8% of CDP. 3.08 China's composition of exports and imports is also unusual when com- pared with that of other developing countries. Unlike most other low-income and lower-middle-income countries, Chinese exports consist mainly of manufac- tures, which accounted in 1981 for 53% of total exports, compared with aver- ages of 30% and 18% for other low-income and lower-middle-income countries. In fact, China's manufactured export share was at the same level as that of 7/ For some international comparisons of the composition of China's public consumption, see Annex A (education), Background Paper 4 (Section III), and China: The Health Sector (World Bank, 1984, Table 3.8). - 16 - Table 3.3: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION STRUCTURE /a (Z of total, at purchasers' prices) South China India Sri Lanka Thailand Korea Philippines (1981) (1980) (1980) (1960) (1955) (1955) Food 61.4 60.2 63.6 56.2 62.1 61.9 Clothing 11.6 10.9 6.1 8.1 10.2 7.6 Rent, fuel & power 7.8 6.7 5.2 9.6 13.3 11.5 Other 19.2 22.3 25.2 26.2 14.4 19.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 GNP per capita 350 250 270 200 400 400 (US$) /b (300)/c /a Based on national accounts (rather than household survey) data. The fig- ures for China are from Appendix Table C.5, but converted to purchasers' prices. /b In 1981 dollars. Estimates for Thailand, Korea, Philippines are subject to a large margin of error. /c See footnote a to Table 3.1. Source: Appendix Table G.1. - 17 - Table 3.4: INTERNATIONAL CONPARISON OF FOOD AVAILABILITY OLI /a LMI /a UMI /a China India countries countries countries Food intake (kcal/day/ person) /b 2,548 1,906 2,082 2,454 2,816 Shares of total food intake (Z) /c Grain 84 67 72 66 57 Animal products 6 5 6 9 14 la OLI, LMI, L1MI defined in notes to Table 3.1. lb 1981, except China (1980-82 average). /c 1977, except China (1980-82 average). The OLI figures are unweighted averages of Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The LMI figures are unweighted averages of Cuba, Egypt, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. The UMI figures are unweighted averages of Brazil, Malaysia, Mexico, South Korea and Yugoslavia. The 1977 food intake averages for these country samples are close to the 1981 averages for their respective groups. Sources: Annex B (China: Agriculture to the Year 2000: Prospects and Options), Table A.7, and World Development Report 1984, Indicators Table 24. - 18 - Table 3.5: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF FOREIGN TRADE Predicted OLI LMI UMI values for large China India countries countries countries countries around 1980/81 1981 1982/a 1982/a 1982/a 1982/a $300 $850 $2,500 Exports and Imports (Z of GDP) /b Exports 8.4 6 11 20 24 16.6 16.4 17.8 Imports 8.1 9 19 26 25 22.4 21.4 21.2 Capital inflow -0.3 3 8 6 1 5.8 5.0 3.4 Composition of Merchandise Exports (Z of Total) Primary 47 41 70 82 47 75 63 42 Fuels, minerals 24 8 16 43 29 31 26 16 Other primary 23 33 54 39 18 44 37 26 Manufactures 53 59 30 18 53 25 37 58 Textiles 2l 23 21 6 12 Machinery 5 8 1 2 14 Other 27 28 8 10 27 Composition of Merchandise Imports (Z of Total) Primary 36 62 43 40 40 67 65 63 Food 16 9 16 14 11 Fuels - 45 21 21 22 (17) (18) (19) Other 20 8 6 5 7 Manufactures 64 38 57 60 60 33 35 37 Machinery 27 13 26 29 29 Other 37 25 31 31 31 /a Data on composition of trade are for 1981 (1980 for India). OLI, LMI, UMI defined in notes to Table 3.1. /b Goods and nonfactor services. Sources: Appendix Table C.2; World DevelopSent Report 1984, Indicators Tables 5, 10, 11; regression results described in text. -19- upper-middle-income countries, despite its large fuel and mineral exports. One thing that China has in common with most low-income countries with respect to the composition of exports, however, is a high share of textiles (211). 3.09 Moreover, as regards nontextile manufactures, as well as textiles, China's exports are quite similar to those of India, which is also unusual among low-income councries in exporting more manufaccures than primary pro- ducts. The only major difference is that China exports a great deal more fuels and minerals than India, and less agricultural products. 3.10 In 1981. China's imports were 64% manufactures and 36Z primary products, which is quite similar to the averages of other developing coun- tries, although rather different from India and the predicted vaLues for large countries. In 1982, India's imports consisted of 62% primary products and 38% manufactures. The main reason for this difference is that, while China was a net exporter of fuel, in 1982 45% of India's imports consisted of oil and oil products. Production Structure 3.11 Table 3.6 presents international comparisons of China's production structure by broad sector expressed as percentages of CDP. Shares of CDP are rather sensitive to relative price variations among countries (and, in the case of China, to inaccuracies in the price adjustments discussed earLier), as well as to variatio7s in the treatment of indirect taxes and subsidies in national accounts.- It might therefore have been preferable to make the production structure comparisons in terms of gross output, but suitable data are rather scarce, especially for the nonmanufacturing sectors. 3.12 The most striking features of China's production structure, by comparison with other countries at its income level, are an unusuaLly high percentage from the manufacturing sector on the one hand, and an unusually low percentage from the service sector on the other. In terms of agricultural 8/ China's national accounts, like those of many developing countries, are compiled at "purchasers' prices" Ci.e. at prices which include indirect taxes less subsidies). Our input-output tables for China (Appendix C) are thus also at purchasers' prices, except that, in accordance with the accounting conventions for such tables, estimated transport and commerce margins are subtracted from the value of all the purchases of goods shown in the tables, and collected together in the transport and commerce rows. National accounts can also be compiled at "producers' prices"2 (i.e. at prices which exclude the effect of indirect taxes and subsi- dies). An attempt to convert China's GDP to producers' prices is made in Figure 9.1 of the .lain Report (based on Appendix J of this Annex); but it was not possible to calculate sectoral shares of GDP on this basis, partly because it is difficult in China at present to draw a meaningful line between indirect taxes and profits, or between subsidies and losses. - 20 - output share, China is a rather typical large low-income country. As the table indicates, in 1981, manufacturing accounted for 24.5% of China's CDP, as compared with 18.1% in India and the 13% predicted for large low-income coun- tries. Manufacturing shares tend to be lower in smaller countries, although this is obscured by the degree of aggregation in the table. But China's manufacturing share is equal to that predicted even for large upper-middle- income countries (it would be far bigger, 33.8%, but for the concealed service and price adjustments - Table 2.3). 3.13 On the other hand, the service sector in China is unusually small. At 17.2% of CDP in 1981, it was just over half that of India and differed by about the same degree from the average of other low-income countries, both actual and predicted (Table 3.6). The difference between China and other countries at higher income levels is of course even larger; and it would appear larger still had no adjustments been made for concealed services and price differences (without which the share of the service sectors in China's GDP would have been 15.5% rather than 17.22). 3.14 Table 3.6 Also shows that the overall share of the "infrastructure" sectors - construction, electricity, transport - in China's CDP, at 11.7% in 1981, is not very different from that of India (12.5%) or the predicted value for a large low-income country (ll%). This is somewhat surprising, since the close association between these sectors and both manufacturing and investment might have been expected to cause China's infrastructure share to be unusually high (the predicted value for large upper-middle-income countries is 15%). Moreover, China's economy is in fact unusually transport-intensive (in terms of ton-kilometers of freight per dollar of GDP - Table 3.12). Of the three infrastructure sectors, Tables 3.6 and 3.7 suggest that it is the shares of construction and transport in China's GDP that are unexpectedly small for a country with such a large manufacturing share; the electricity share is as large as in South Korea and Japan. The explanation is probably partly China's unusually low reliance on road transport (which contributes more per ton- kilometer to GDP than rail, because it is more labor-intensive and costly), and partly the apparently minimal amount of repair and maintenance construc- tion in China. 3.15 Table 3.7 shows production structures of different countries in more detail. China's mining share is very high by comparison with most of the other countries, but much smaller than that of Indonesia - another major energy producer. Of the 24.5% manufacturing share of GDP in China shown in the previous table, 16.4% was from heavy manufacturing while 8.1% was from light manufacturing. This light manufacturing share is very similar to that of India, though somewhat higher than that of Indonesia and appreciably lower than those of the richer countries in the table. By contrast, China's share of heavy manufacturing far exceeds that of India, Indonesia, and even Spain in 1972. It was in fact comparable to that of South Korea and Brazil, both in 1980, countries with income levels five times as high as China. Even more striking is the share of machinery, which, at 10.8% of CDP, surpassed that of South Korea and Brazil, and is about the same level as Japan in 1965. (China's unusually high investment rate and degree of self-sufficiency in machinery are consistent with the high estimated share of the machinery sector in CDP; but it should be noted that the price adjustments raised this share by - 21 - Table 3.6: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF PRODUCTION STRUCTURE (BROAD SECTORS) - (Z of GDP) Predicted OLI /b LMI /b UHI /b values for large China India/a countries countries countries countries around 1980/81 1981 1979/80 1982 1982 1982 $300 $850 $2,500 Agriculture 35.8 35.1 44 23 11 35 24 13 Mining 10.8 1.5 } 6 6 5 Manufacturing 24.5 18.1 16 35 41 13 19 25 Construction 4.7 5.1 } 1 5 6 7 Electricity /c 2.6 1.7 7 8 Transport 4.4 5.7 1 40 42 48 6 Services 17.2 32.8 1 35 38 42 Total 100.0 100.0 100 ioo 100 100 100 100 /a Excluding indirect taxes. /b OLI, LMI, UMI defined in notes to Table 3.1. /b Includes gas and water for countries other than China (where these activities are in manufacturing). Sources: Appendix Table C.5; World Development Report 1984, Indicators Table 3; Technical Notes on the Sixth Plan of India, 1980-85, Planning Commission, the Government of India, June 1981; regression results described in text. - 22 - Table 3.7: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF PRODUCTION STRUCTURE (DETAILED SECTORS) (X of GDP) South China India /a Indonesia Korea Japan Brazil Spain (1981) (19791-0) (1980) (1980) (1965) (1980) (1972) Agriculture 35.8 35.1 24.6 14.7 9.2 13.0 10.4 Mining 10.8 1.5 25.7 1.4 1.1 0.5 1.4 Heavy Nanufacturing 16.4 9.6 4.5 15.9 20.4 17.0 11.8 Metallurgy 1.7 2.2 0.5 1.7 2.5 3.7 2.4 Chemicals /b 2.2 3.2 1.3 6.7 4.9 6.7 3.4 Machinery T 10.8 3.1 2.2 6.1 11.7 5.5 4.1 Building materials Id 1.7 1.1 0.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.9 Light Masufacturing 8.1 8.5 5.9 13.4 11.2 9.6 14.1 Food processing /e 2.0 1.8 3.6 6.2 4.3 4.1 4.3 Textiles and clothing 3.6 3.4 1.2 4.9 2.6 2.8 5.6 Wood, paper. misc. 2.5 3.3 1.1 2.3 4.3 2.7 4.2 Infrastructure 11.7 12.5 10.4 18.2 17.5 12.0 15.7 Construction 4.7 5.1 5.3 8.3 7.3 5.8 7.5 electricity /f 2.6 1.7 0.5 2.3 2.6 1.1 2.2 Transport La 4.4 5.7 4.6 7.6 7.6 5.1 6.0 Services 17.2 32.8 26.7 36.4 40.4 47.9 46.6 Commerce 5.5/i 15.5 11.9 12.2 13.1 16.1LI 16.9I Misc. services /k 2.0 3.0 3.7 9.6 11.7 th /h Education and health 4.3 1.9 2.7 5.4 6.8 7hW 7Th Public ada. and def. 3.1 9.111 5.1 4.6 3.8 7.5 7.1 Housiug 2.3 3.3 3.3 4.6 5.0 th /h Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 /a Excludes indirect taxes. 7TW Includes petroleum and coal products. 7W Includes all fabricated metal products. 7iT includes other nonmetallic mineral products for countries other than China. We Includes beverages and tobacco. 7T Includes gas and water for countries other than China (where these activities are in manufacturing). IR Includes communications. -7h Data for these sectors not available individually, but included in services total. 7? Also includes restaurants. 7 Also includes restaurants and hotels. 711c Includes banking and insurance. 7: Also includes hotels, restaurants. canteens, barbers, sanitary services, wrapping and packaging of articles, repair of wooden furniture. Sources: China: Appendix Table C.5; India: Technical Notes on the Sixth Plan of India, 1980-85, Planning Commission, the Government of India, June 1981; Indonesia: Input-Output Tables, Indonesia (1980), Volume I, Biro Pusat Statisk, 1984; South Korea: 1980 Input-Output Tables of Korea, the Bank of Korea, 1983; Japan: IInterindustry Relations Table (1965),"Economic Statistics Annual (1970), the Bank of Japan, 1971; Brazil: Composite estimates based on: UN Yearbook of National Accounts Statistics, (1981) Annual Statistics of Brazil, 1982, and World Tables, 3rd Edition, the World Bank, Spain: Composite estimates based on: UN Yearbook of National Accounts Statistics, 1981, World Tables, 3rd Edition, the World Bank, The Contemporary Spanish Economy: An Historical Perspective (p. 235) by Smna Lieberman, George Allen and Unwin, London, 1982. - 23 - 2 percentage points, and that the underlying data on machinery prices are not very reliable.) 3.16 Table 3.7 also shows chat the smallness of the overall share of the service sectors in China's GDP is mainly due to the small share of commerce. In 1981, this was only 5.5%, compared with 15.5% in India, 11.9% in Indonesia, and 12.2% in South Korea. Although this finding is basically corroborated by the comparisons of employment discussed below (a similar pattern is also observed in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europel.), the smallness of the share of commerce in China's GDP may be due in part to large implip't subsidies, especially on staple foods, reducing this sector's profits.-. Although the 9/ See The Service Sector in Soviet Economic Growth by Gur Ofer, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachussetts, 1973. The proportion of the labor force in services in the Soviet Union in 1964 was less than 60% of what would be expected (on the basis of cross-country regression analy- sis) for a country at that income level. It was further established that this was not due in any significant degree to the concealment of services in the activities of other sectors. Breaking down the total among the various service sectors, the overall gap was accounted for Largely by the smaLlness of the commerce sector, though finance, business services, and personal and domestic services were also smaller chan in other countries. According to Ofer, the small share of commerce is due to the follow- ing factors. A low share of household consumption in national income (associated with high investment and government spending) and a higher share of self-produced food consumpcion (associated with an unusually high share of agricultural employment and low urbanization) reduces the need for retail trade services. In addition, turnover per worker in retail trade was unusually high, as a result of limited customer ser- vice. The reasons for the smallness of Soviet wholesale trade, though less thoroughly investigated, appeared to be the system of materials allocation and a smaller volume of interenterprise transactions. The smallness of the finance sector appeared to be a consequence of state ownership of the means of production. The limited scale of business ser- vices, like that of wholesale trade, was attributed to greater enterprise self-sufficiency. The smallness of personal services seemed in part to be explained by discrimination against "unproductive" activities. 10/ These implicit price subsidies were estimated to amount to over Y 30 bil- lion in 1981 (Appendix J, Worksheet D). On the other hand, commercial profits on commodities other than staple food in China may be unusually high; and the sector holds exceptionally large stocks of unsold goods (Appendix E), interest payments on which raise its share of GDP. Commer- cial profits, taxes and interest combined are, after price adjustment, 50% greater than wages and self-employment income in the sector, and nearly 7% of the value of the capital employed in the sector (Appendix Tables C.4, C.5 and E.2), ratios which do not seem particularly low, although international comparisons are not easy, partly because of the widely varying importance of self-employment in the sector. Nonetheless, the price adjustment applied - which raised the gross value of commercial margins by Y 5 billion - may have been insufficient. - 24 - data on other service subsectors in Table 3.7 are subject to problems of inconsistent classification and measurement, they suggest that the shares of public administration and defense, miscellaneous services, and housing in China's GDP are all also unusually small (even after some adjustment for unusually low wages and unusually large housing subsidies - see Appendix B). By contrast, China's share of education and health services in GDP appears unusualLy large for a low-income country - 4.3%, as compared with 1.9% in India and 2.7% in Indonesia - although not as large as in much richer coun- tries such as South Korea and Japan. Determinants 3.17 China's unusual production structure (even after adjustment for unusual prices), by comparison with other low-income countries, is associated in part with China's unusual composition of demand. In particular, the high proportion of national income used for investment requires a high proportion of productive capacity to be used to produce investment goods, especially machinery, but also all the industrial intermediate goods needed for machinery production and for construction. This association is confirmed by calcula- tions presented in Appendix F, which assess the hypothetical impact on the pattern of gross output of replacing China's final demand vector with India's final demand vector (in which investment is a smaller share). The result would be increases in the production shares of agricuLture, light manufactur- ing, public utilities and transport, and commerce and services; and decreases in the productign shares of energy, machinery, other heavy manufactures, and construction.-# 3.18 However, the same calculations suggest that the unusual composition of (final) demand is only part of the explanation of China's unusual produc- tion structure. Differences in input-output coefficients - the level and pat- tern of intermediate flows - are of roughly equal importance in explaining why energy and machinery constitute such a large share of total production in China. These differences are also much more important in explaining why ser- vices constitute such a small share of production. (In agriculture and light manufacturing, by contrast, unusually high intermediate demand in China partly offsets unusually low final demand.) Similar calculations using Japan rather than India as the comparator - also presented in Appendix F - confirm that intermediate use of agricultural products, energy, and light manufactures is unusually high in China, while intermediate use of services is unusually low. But by comparison with Japan, China's intermediate use of machinery il/ Production in these calculations is measured by gross output, rather than (as in Tables 3.6 and 3.7) by shares of CDP (i.e. net output). An addi- tional link in the chain connecting sectoral shares of GDP with the comr position of final demand is thus sectoral net-gross output ratios (see Tables 3.13 and 3.14). It should also be noted that final demand includes foreign trade: hence the reduction in energy production caused by substituting India's final demand vector for China's largely reflects the fact that India is a substantial net importer of energy, while China is a substantial net exporter. - 25 - appears from these calculations to be quite normal, and intermediate use of other heavy manufactures to be low. (All these results should be treated with caution, given the likely inaccuracies of our estimated input-output table for China.) Employment 3.19 China's employment structure both resembles and differs from that of other low-income countries in the same ways as its production structure, although the differences are not so pronounced. Table 3.8 presents interna- tional comparisons of China's employment structure by broad sector. In 1982, agriculture accounted for 69.6% of China's total labor force, quite similar to that of India and not much different from the average and the predicted value for other low-income countries. However, China's broad industry 12 share of the labor force, at 18.0%, was substantially higher than India's 12.9%, the average of other low-income countries (11%), and the predicted value for large low-income countries (12%). Conversely, China's share of the Labor force in transport and services was relatively low. At 12.4%, it was substantiaLly lower than India's 16.5% (which was close to the average of other Low-income countries) and was far below the predicted value of 21X. 3.20 Table 3.9 presents a more detailed breakdown of China's employment structure compared with other countries at various income levels, including the USSR (1959). The employment share of heavy manufacturing in China, at 7.5Z, was far higher than in Indonesia, but quite similar to South Korea in 1980 and the USSR in 1959, largely because of high employment in machinery. In light manufacturing, however, with a share of 6.1%, China was similar to Indonesia, but far below all the other richer countries in the table. The share of employment in infrastructure, at 4.7%, was quite low compared with those of the richer countries, and also with Pakistan's 10.3%. This is attributable partly to China's low employment in construction (except by comparison with India), and partly to low employment in transport, which at 1.9Z of total employment is the lowest in the table, probably t3e ause of the small share of (more labor-intensive) road transport in China._ 3.21 Employment in services in China, at 10.5% of the total in 1982, is not as much below India (14.0%) as would have been expected from the produc- tion data in Table 3.7, but is less than half as large as in Pakistan (22.3%) and Indonesia (29.6%). As was the case in the production comparisons, the shortfall is concentrated in commerce, which in China employed 3.3% of the labor force, as compared with 5.8% in India (again a smaller gap than would have been expected from the production data), 11.1% in Pakistan and 13.3% in Indonesia. The employment data for other service subsectors are less com- 12/ Mining, manufacturing, electricity and construction. 13/ The Soviet Union also relies to an unusually small degree on road trans- port, yet its transport employment share is not much less than Japan's. This is because the Soviet economy is far more transport-intensive than the Japanese economy (Annex F, Chapter 1). - 26 - Table 3.8: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF EMPLOYMENT STRUCTURE (BROAD SEClURS) (Z of total labor force) OLI /a LMI /a UMI /a Predicted values for large China India countries countries countries countries arolund 1980/81 1982 1981 1980 1980 1980 $300 $850 $2,500 Agriculture 69.6 70.6 73 56 30 67 51 31 Broad industry /b 18.0 12.9 11 16 28 12 20 29 Transport and services 12.4 16.5 16 28 42 21 29 40 /a OLI, LKI, UMI defined in notes to Table 3.1. Ia Mining, manufacturing, electricity, construction. Sources: Appendix D; World Development Report 1984, Indicators Table 21; Population Census of India, 1981 (5% sample); regression results described in text. - 27 - Table 3.9: INTERNATIONAL COHPARISON OF EMPLO014ENT STRUCTURE (DETAILED SECrORS) fa (Z of total labor force) South China India Pakistan Indonesia Korea Japan USSR 1982 1981 1981 1980 1980 1965 1959 Agriculture 69.6 70.6 52.7 54.8 32.0 25.6 46.1 Mining 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.7/b Heavy Manufacturing la 7.5 } 2.4 8.8 12.9 9.3/c Metallurgy 0.5 } 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.4 Chemicals 1.2 } 0.6 2.5 1.7 0.6 Machinery 4.3 } 0.8 4.7 8.5 5.5 Building materials 1.5 } 10.9 14.5 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.8 Light Manufacturing /a 6.1 7 6.1 12.9 11.0 11.1/c Food processing 1.0 } 3.4 2.9 2.3 2.5 Textiles and clothing 2.3 } 1.6 7.4 4.8 3.5 Wood, paper, misc. 2.8 1 1.1 2.6 3.9 5.1 Infrastructure /a 4.7 10.3 6.4 9.9 12.9 13.0 Construction 2.5 1.5 4.9 3.2 5.3 6.5 6.5 Electricity 0.3 /d 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 Transport 1.9 2.5 4.7 3.0 4.2 5.8 5.5 Services /a 10.5 14.0 22.3 29.6 35.3 36.4 18.8 CDmmerce 3.3/e 5.8 11.1/f 13.3 14.9 19.6 4.9/e Misc. services 0.7 /
Groupe de la Banque mondiale · Pre-2003 Economic or Sector Report
China - Long-term issues and options (Vol. 6 of 7)
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