Benin - Issues and options in the energy sector

Report No. 5222-BEN Benin: Issues and Options in the Energy Sector June 1985 ---=-:Rpoit the pint DPIVorld Bank Energy Sector Assessment Pfogamm This document has a restricted distnbution. Its contents may not be disclosed without authorization from the Government, the UNDP or the World Bank  JOINT UNDP/WORLD BANK ENERGY SECTOR ASSESSMENT PROGRAM REPORTS ALREADY ISSUED Country Date Number Indonesia November 1981 3543-IND Mauritius December 1981 3510-MAS Kenya May 1982 3800-KE Sri Lanka May 1982 3792-CE Zimbabwe June 1982 3765-ZIM Haiti June 1982 3672-HA Papua New Guinea June 1982 3882-PNG Burundi June 1982 3778-BU Rwanda June 1982 3779-RW Malawi August 1982 3903-MAL Bangladesh October 1982 3873-BD Zambia January 1983 4110-ZA Turkey March 1983 3877-TU Bolivia April 1983 4213-BO Fiji June 1983 4462-FIJ Solomon Islands June 1983 4404-SOL Senegal July 1983 4182-SE Sudan July 1983 4511-SU Uganda JuLy 1983 4453-UG Nigeria August 1983 4440-UNI Nepal August 1983 4474-NEP Gambia November 1933 4743-GM Peru January 1984 4677-PE Costa Rica january 1984 4655-CR Lesotho January 1984 4676-LSO SeychelLes January 1984 4693-SEY Morocco March 1984 4157-Y.OR Portugal April 1984 4824-PO Niger May 1934 4642-NIR Ethiopia July 1984 4741-ET Cape Verde August 1984 5073-CV Guinea Bissau August 1984 5083-CUB Botswana September 1.984 4998-BT St. Vincent and .he Grenadines September 1984 5103-STV St. Lucia September 1984 5111-SLU Paraguay October 1984 5145-PA Tanzania November 1984 4969-TA Yemen Arab Republic December 1984 4892-YAR Liberia December 1984 5279-LBR Islamic Republic of Mauritania April 1985 5224-MAU Jamaica April 1985 5466-JM Ivory Coast Aprii 1985 5250-IVC  CONFIDENTIAL Report No. 5222-BEN BENIN ISSUES AND OPTIONS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR JUNE 1985 This is one of a series of reports of the Joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Sector Assessment Program. Finance for this work has been provided, in part, by the UNDP Energy Account, and the work has been carried out by the World Bank. This report has a restricted distribution. Its contents may not be disclosed without authorization from the Government, tha UNDP or the World Bank.  ABSTRACT Benin has a diversified resource base which, in principle, can meet the country's projected energy needs. The ample forest resources, which account for most of the potential annual production, currentLy satisfy 86% of gross energy requirements. Although the suppLy-demand balance is positive on the national Level, fuelwood shortages have developed in the densely populated areas of the south and in the cLimatically less favored zones of the north. Therefore, the report proposes opening for exploita- tion the forest areas in central Benin and assisting the rural seccor in integrated agro-silvicultural project development. Offshore hydrocarbon resources have been discovered, and oil production started in 1982; efforts to quantify natural gas resources and determine their commercial production potential are envisaged. Crude oil is being exported, and there are no economic incentives to process it locally because of the small size of the internal market, the oil production profile, and the international refining situation. Petroleum products meet 13% of internal energy needs and are being imporced at competitive prices. Benin's hydropower resources are large in comparison with present demand (2% of gross energy input), and can economicalLy be developed in the context of an interconnected West African power system. In addition, the country has a substantial agricultural potential, offering the possibility of residue to energy conversion. General energy policy recommendacions include the need to structure efficient institutions to manage the iector, to set up incentives for private sector involvement in decencralized energy production and to assist consumers in achieving efficient energy use. Finally, the report recommends actively pursuing cooperation with neighboring countries in the development of energy resources, the introduction of new technologies, and the procurement of their imported requirements.  ACOMS ADB African Development Bank BBD Banque Beninoise de Developpement DBCD Banque Commerciale du Benin BOAD Banque Ouest Africaine de Developpement CARDER Centre d'Action Regionale pour le D6veloppement Rural CEB Compagnie Electrique du Benin CIB Ceramique IndustrielLe du Benin CTL Centrale Thermiqu.2 de Lomi CIMAO Societe des Ciments de l'Afrique de l'Ouest DEFC Direction des Eaux, Forets et de la Chasse EDF Electricite de France EECI Energie Electrique de la C8te d'Ivoire FAO Organisation des Nations Unies pour L'Alimentation et l'Agriculture FED Fonds Europeen de Developpement GOB Grands Moulins du Benin IBETEX Industrie Beninoise des Textiles INSAE Institut Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse Economique MDRAC Ministere du Developpement Rural et de l'Action Cooperative MERS Ministere de 1'Education Superieure et de la Recherche Scientifique MFEEP Ministere des Fermes de 1'Etat, de V'Elevage et de la Peche MIME Ministere de l'Industrie, des Mines, et de ['Energie NEPA Nigerian Electric Power Authority OCBN Organisation Commune Benin-Niger des Chemins de Fer et des Transports ONAB Office National du Bois OTP Office Togolais des Phosphates SBEE Societe Beninoise d'Eau et d'Electricite SCB Societe Ciment du Benin SOBETEX Societe Beninoise des Textiles SONARA Societe Nigerienne de CommerciaLisation de l'Arachide SONACI Societe Nationale des Ciments SONACOP Societe Nationale de Commercialisation des Produits Pecroliers SONICOG Societe Nationale pour l'Industrie des Corps Gras SONIDEP Societe Nigerienne des Produits P6troLiers SONAFEL Societe Nationale de Fruits et Legumes SNS Societe Nationale de Siderurgie SSS Societe Sucriere de Save VRA Volta River Authority UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNSSO United Nations Sahel Sudan Organization USAID United States Agency for International Development  ABBREVIATIONS b/d barrels per day GDP Gross Domestic Product LPG Liquid Petroleum Gas (Butane) K thousand M million m3 cubic meter cal calorie kcal kilocalories (103) Mcal megacalories 106 MCF thousand cubic feet koe kilogram of oil equivalent toe ton of oil equivalent kWh kilowatt-hour MWh megakilowatt-hour (103 kWh) GWh Gigwatt-hour (106 kWh) This report reflects the conclusions of the Energy Assessment mission which visited Benin in July 1983. The mission was composed of Ms. U. Weimper (leader) and Messrs. A. Larreture (consultant, renewable energy specialist), A. Streicher (consultant, energy conservation expert) and J. Hatfield (consultant, electric energy economist). The mission aLso received the technical cooperation of the following Bank staff: Messrs. J. Fishwick (forestry expert), J. Toktar (petroLeum engineer), and M. Wilton (electricity specialist). The text for the final report was processed by Ms. Norma Kraushaar.  CONVERSION FACTORS Monetary: 50 FCFA = I French Franc 370 FCFA = I USS (June 19831 Energy: Original Specific Calorific Oil Oil Units Gravity Value Equivalent Equivalent (kcal/kg) (toe/ton) (toe/u3) LPG kq 0.54 10,700 1.049 0.566 Fuelwood: (25% HC-solid) 1/ m 0,7 3,500 0.343 - Charcoal ton 7,000 0.686 - Oil Equivalent ton3 - 10,200 1 - Gasoline - Super m3 0.735 10,500 1.029 0.731 - Regular m3 0.71 10,500 1,029 0.731 - Aviation m. 0.71 10,500 1.029 0.731 Kerosene m3 0.78 10,300 1.010 0.788 Kerosene - Aviation m3 0.80 10,400 1.020 0.816 Gasoil/Diesel m 0.82 10,200 1 0.820 Fuel Oil - Light ton 0.92 9,900 0.971 0.893 - Heavy 0.96 9,800 0.961 Electricity: 28.5% efficiency kWh - 3,018/kWh 295.88/GWh - 100.0% efficiency kWh - 860/kWh 84.314/GWh - Natural Gas m3 9,000/.3 _ 880-Me3 Biogas m3 5,500/m3 - 0.539/Mn3 Corn Cobs tons 3,500 0.343 - Corn, Rice, Sorghum, Millet straw tons 2,500 0.245 - Oil Palm stems tons 1,300 0.127 - Oil Palm fibers tons 2,500 0.245 - Oil Palm hulls tons 4,000 0.392 - Oil Palm leaves tons 2,000 0.196 - Cotton stalks tons 4,100 0.402 - Groundnut hulls tons 4,000 0.392 - Rice husks tons 3,000 0.294 - Coconut hulls tons 4,300 0.422 - 1/ One stere of wood = 1 t3 of stacked wood = 0.6 m3 of solid wood.  TABLE OF CONTENTS Page I . SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS . .1......................... Economic Overview ...... ..... ................... ...... 1 Main Energy Issues ......... * ........... .1 Investments ..........6....... ... ... 2 Medium Term Priorities ................................ 3 Resource Evaluation .. . ......o ...... 3 Supply Options. * **... .600 ....... *...................... * * 4 Demand Management Measures ...................o ....... 7 Institutional Aspects . a......... ............... * * *6*** 9 II. DEMAND MANAGEMENT PROGRAM ............................ ..... 11 Energy Balance ................... .....................a ............. 11 Projected Energy Balances ............................. 12 Substitution and Conservation .......................... 14 Industrial Sector ..................................... 14 rndustrial Energy Use Patterns ................ 14 Opportunities for Energy Conservation ................. 15 Industrial Energy Demand Forecast ..................... 16 Recommendations. * ............................... ...6.*...6 16 Transport Sector .. 19 Forecast of Fuel Demand in the Transport Sector.. ..... 21 Road User Charge .................. . . . 22 Recommendations... ......... ... . . 22 Energy Consumption in the Hotel Sector.............. 23 Sheraton/Cotonou .. 23 Households and Cottage Industry . . 24 Potential for Energy Savings . . 25 Improved Stoves .... 25 Improvements in Artisanal Activity .................... 26 III. HYDROCARBON SUBSECTOR ............... ....................... 27 Resources .. 27 Current Petroleum Supply .......................... oo.. 29 Demand Structure ...... . .... . .................................. . 30 Petroleum Import Costs ................................ 31 Retail Petroleum Prices .............. ... .. . 32 Strategies for Reducing the Cost of Oil Imports ......... 33 Oil Substitution Opportunities ........... o . ........... 33 Nigerian Natural Gas and LPG ........................ 35  IV. ELECTRIC POWER ...... ... ....... . 39 Role of Electricity . ................. ................. 39 Characteristics of Benin's Electric System ............ 40 interconnected Coastal System. .......................... 42 Benin Coastal System ........... . ......... . 42 Binational Coastal System (CEB) ....................... 45 Binational Strategy . ........... . 48 Inl and Cent er s . . . . . .*. e. . .. .e. . . . . . . . .0 . . .............49 Tariffs ................................................. 51 CEB's Purchase and Sales Tariffs ...................... 51 SBEE's Tariffs . ..... 52 V. RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND THEIR DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.. 54 Forest Resources ................. 54 Fuelwood and Charcoal Prices ........................ . . 58 Fuelwood Production Cost .............................. 58 Policy Issues ........... . 60 Agricultural Residues ................................ . 62 Other Renewable Resources ............................. 65 S-olar Air Heating ....... ............................................ 65 Wind Energy ... 66 VI. INSTITUTIONS, INVESTMENTS - TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE ......... . 67 Institutions ............. -... --...--..- ........ 67 Electricity ........................................... 68 Forestry ...... ....................... . 69 Other Institutional Issues .... 71 Investments ........... .............. ............................ 71 Technical Assistance Projects .......................... 72 First Priority Activities . . . 73 Second Priority Projects . . . 74 ANNEXES 1.1 Population by Province, 1979 ............................ 77 1.2 Projection of Population Growth to 1998 . . 78 1.3 Projected Regional Distribution of Population ........... 79 2. Benin - Energy Balance, 1982. 80 2.1 Energy Balance, 1982 - Explanatory Note. 81 2.2 Benin: Effective End-Use Energy Consumption in 1982 84 3. Benin: Energy Balance, 1 9 8 4 85 4.1 Benin: Energy Balance Projection to 1988 . .86 4.2 Energy Balance Projection to 1998. 87 5. Fuelwood and Charcoal Consumption in Household and Cottage Industry ..................... . .. 88 6. Total Petroleum Sales - Energy Products . . 92 7. Petroleum Sales by Type of Outlet - 1982 . .93  8. Petroleum Sales by Type of Outlet, 1984................... .. 94 9. Petroleum Product Prices - 1983 ....................... .. 95 10. West Africa - Petroleum Product Consumption, 1981....... 96 11. West Africa Petroleum Market - Historical Trends ........ 97 12. West African Refining Capacity .......................... 98 13. Hydro Resources of Togo and Benin ....................... 99 14. Benin: Electric Demand Projections..%................... 100 15. Togo: Electric Demand Projections...... ............... .. 101 16. Togo-Benin: Interconnected System - Projection of Generation Requirements ........... 1........ 02 17. Togo & Benin - Petroleum Requirements for Power Generation ................................... .. . 103 18. Installed Electric Power Capacity ....................... 10. 19. 1982 Electric Tariffs .. .......... . i0 20. Proposed Tariff - Medium Voltage ........................ 106 21. Energy Potential of Agricultural Waste Products......... 107 22. Analysis of the Energy Potential of Agricultural Residues..... . .......................... . 108 23. Sugar Mill (SSS) Energy Balance ............ ............. 118 24. Evaluation of Non-Conventional Renewable Energy Technologies ............... l. 119 MAPS IBRD 17681 Benin 1979 Population Density IBRD 17682 Benin Forest Resources IBRD 17683 Benin Hydrocarbon Resources IBRD 17684 Benin-Togo Electric Systems  I. SUMMARY AND RECOMNENDATIOMS Economic Overview 1.1 The People's Republic of Benin is a corridor-shaped country of 112,000 km2, with a population of 3.8 million and a per capita GDP of about US$270 (in 1981). Its main economic activities are agriculture and trade with neighboring countries. During the 1970s the State became the predominant economic agent, investing in resource development and indus- trial projects and exercising control over operations in all sectors. Real economic growth increased from an average annual rate of 0.9% during 1971-1976 to about 3.6% during 1976-81. However, in the early 1980s the country's balance of payments and the fiscal budget ran into critically large deficits. It became apparent that many of the public enterprises were not commercially viable and that the Government's intervention in the rest of the economy had produced severe distortions which discouraged private production. To redress the economy, the Covernment has sought international assistance and defined a new strategy aimed at promoting agricultural development and rehabilitating the industrial sector. The Bank estimates that this policy will allow a sustained minimum economic growth rate of 2% p.a. during the rest of the decade. A higher growth rate could be achieved if crude oil production from the Simi field exceeded present estimates and if the two large industrial units (clinker plant at Onigbolo and sugar mill at Save) became competitive and their output could be exported. The longer term prospects for economic growth depend on the country's efforts to overcome internaL, technical, and managerial constraints and on the economic cooperation among the countries of the West African region. Main Energy Issues 1.2 The energy balance indicates that energy in physical terms should not be a limiting factor in Benin's economic development. Gross energy consumption is projected to increase from 840 Ktoe in 1982 to 1,600 Ktoe in 1998, which compares with a potential productive capacity of 2,300 Ktoe p.a. This potential is estimated on the basis of present economic and technical conditions and includes both renewable energy sources and hydrocarbons. The full development of these resources and their conversion into the energy forms required by a gradually moderniz- ing economy is constrained by the market size and the availability of financial and technical production factors. Regional cooperation in the context of the West African countries has been recognized as a means to achieve optimum economic exploitation, sharing investments, markets, and technical and managerial know-how. 1.3 Fuelwood and, to a lesser extent, agricultural residues are the most important resources in Benin, as they satisfy the bulk of internal energy requirements. Completely replacing biomass consumption with imported petroleum products would cost the economy some US$50 million per year. It is evident that the highest priority of the energy strategy is to ensure an adequate long term supply of fuelwood at competitive  - 2 - prices. To achieve this it is necessary to formulate a management plan for the rational exploitation of existing forest resources and to evaluate the energy potential of agricultural residues and the cost of converting them into usable energy forms. The active involvement of the private sector in these activities should be further promoted. 1.4 Oil production from the Seme hydrocarbon field started in 1982 and by 1983 Benin had become a net petroleum exporter in physical terms. It is still too early to assess the long-term productive capacity of this field and of the rest of Benin's sedimentary area. At present it appears that oil production wilL peak in the late 1980s and reach economic limits in the early 1990s. The Government actively seeks to interest private companies in exploring the offshore areas outside Seme, and a program to delineate the extension of the Seme field is under way. Better knowledge of the oil and gas potential will permit the definition of baLanced development and production programs which take into account technical and financial constraints as well as long-term economic objectives. 1.5 Benin's hydropower potential is estimated at 70-80 Ktoe p.a., which compares with a projected electric demand of 40 Ktoe by 1998. How- ever, the developm-nt of this resource is only economical in the context of a larger market. It is therefore advisable to strengthen cooperation with Togo in the existing binational system and to take active interest in the implementation of the wider West African electric interconnection. 1.6 All electricity and petroleum product supplies are imported. The cost of these imports absorbed more than 20% of Benin's foreign exchange earnings in 1982. The oil import bill was expected to increase by US$8 million in 1984 as a result of the curtailment of electricity supplies from Ghana and the closing of the Nigerian border. Internal thermal generation to make up the deficit requires additional imports of petroleum products equivalent to 12,000 toe. In 1982, some 16,000 toe of low cost petroleum products were illegally imported from Nigeria (equivalent to 7X of the officially imported tonnage). It is evident that an energy conservation program covering all consumer groups is urgently required to minimize the disruptive effect of these events on the economy. 1.7 Benin's energy management capacity must be strengthened if the energy programs are to be implemented efficiently and in good time. In answer to this requirement, the mission proposes technical assistance programs with an intensive training component. These programs have the objective of building up the administrative capacity of the operating entities in the sector, as well as developing a capacity for designing energy policies at the macro-economic level and for translating them into effective guidelines. Investments 1.8 The public investment requirements in the energy sector are conservatively estimated at about US$200 million for the period 1984- 1988. These funds are to be allocated to the following objectives:  (a) evaluation and development of the hydrocarbon potential (342); (b) development of hydropower resources jointly -ith Togo and expansion of the electric network (50%); (c) reforestation projects (12Z); (d) basic project identification and demonstration in the areas of energy conservation and conversion; and (e) training. This is a very large investment plan (5% of GDP), especially when considering the needs in other priority sectors such as agriculture and social infrastructure. However, a significant portion (60Z) of these requirements already has been ensured through external funding. The concerted action of inter- national financial and technical organizations is necessary to help Benin in implementing the rest of the energy sector program. Medium Term Priorities Resource Evaluation 1.9 Significant advances have been made in evaluating Benin's hydrocarbon potential. The Sene offshore field, discovered in 1968, until recently was only considered marginal in terms of r2coverable reserves. However, after a first development phase executed under a service contract at the risk of the Government, it appears that the reservoir extends over a larger area and has a better water drive than initially was expected. A second stage development project is currently envisaged with IDA support. By optimizing production and draining the extension areas, the project would help to lower unit production costs and allow a higher rate of return on the investment. 1.10 Non-associated natural gas resources have been identified in a deeper structure (2,600 meters) of the Seme field. The mission believes priority should be given to an evaluation of this potential. Bulk energy consumers could absorb a large enough flow of gas to initially justify the construction of a pipeline. The Bank's project for the second phase development of the oil field includes engineering services for testing the gas structure and for carrying out a detailed gas market study. If the tests are successful, the mission suggests that additional wells be extended into the gas structure to evaluate the resource base and provide the information necessary to formulate a field development program and carry out a detailed market analysis. 1.11 Also, a recent evaluation of the rest of the sedimentary basin of Benin has indicated that additional prospects for oil accumulation exist in the offshore area west of Seme. The Government is currently preparing a promotional package and revising the legal framework for private participation in the exploration of this acreage. 1.12 Initial steps have been taken to assess Benin's hydropower resources, currently estimated at 240 MW (840 GWh/year). The recent inventory of hydro sites (larger than 10 GWh) revealed the need for additional topographical and hydrometric data before feasibility studies can be made. The potential sites are located on rivers with large  - 4 - fluctuations in seasonal and annual water flow, gentle slopes and wide river valleys so development would be relatively expensive and must be envisaged in a system context. CEB, the binationaL utility (Benin and Togo), envisages developing these hydropower resources for seasonal interchanges of energy with Ghana, using Akosombo to regulate hydropower production. It is also suggested that mini hydropower resources in Benin that could supply electricity to towns of the interior be further assessed, to save liquid hydrocarbons. 1.13 Given Benin's strong agricultural sector, the opportunities for converting residues into energy should be examined. A tentative quanti- fication of the energy potential of residues associated with the 1982/83 crop yield indicates a value of 450-600 Ktoe, which compares to a present fuelwood consumption of about 700 Ktoe. The mission therefore recommends that a balance of available residues be drawn up for each major agricul- tural zone, taking into account alternative uses of biomass waste and soil recycling needs, to use in planning economic energy applications. Supply Options 1.14 Forestry. In view of the country's low population density and climatic conditions, wood production could be substantially enhanced in Benin. The main constraint to effective management of forest resources is the present weakness of the institutions guiding the sector. There are several reforestation and forest management projects currently being implemented which the mission believes are well conceived and suited to ttie absorptive capacity of the country. Most of the intensive forest plantations in the south focus on timber production, with fuelwood as a subproduct; one high cost project caters specifically to the energy needs of the densely populated coastal area; another project is attempting to temporarily alleviate the erosion and wood scarcity problem of the dry zones of north Benin. 1.15 To increase the future supply of fuelwood and charcoal for households in the coastal and urban areas, the mission recommends a two- pronged approach: (a) expand efforts to open up new forest areas in the center of the country, and introduce efficient charcoal conversion equip- ment; to enhance the economics of forest management projects, considera- tion should be given to multipurpose exploitation objectives, including the production of service wood, fuelwood for industrial and power appli- cations, as well as firewood for household consumption; (b) promote rural reforestation, through the expansion of technical assistance services. The mission also recommends that coordination between agriculture and forestry be strengthened in defining a land use policy in South Benin and promoting agro-silvicultural projects. 1.16 Other Biomass. Several industries already use agricultural residues for boiler fuel, thus replacing imported petroleum products. An additional opportunity for substitution was found in Bohicon, where there is an estimated surplus of 3,000 tons of sawmill waste and cottonseed hulls. Instead of separately utilizing these waste materials, the mission suggests that their use in a multi-fuel boiler at the planned  brewery of Abomey be studied. The mission's preliminary evaluation indicates that steam generation or cogeneration of steam and electricity are attractive alternative uses for this surplus. On the other hand, the mission suggests that, to promote the conversion of residues into electric power in isolated areas, consideration be given to signing sales agreements with enterprises interested in producing electric power from bioaass, at a tariff equal to the long run marginal cost for the specific local environment ("producer tariffs"). In view of CEB's mandate to licence self-generation, such contracts for areas to be served by this binational utility should be negotiated by SBEE with CEB's agreement. 1.17 Electric Power. Although the Level of electrification is low in Benin (only 20% of the urban population has access to it) and the share of electricity in final energy consumption is less than 2%, the mission recommends for the medium-term a policy which emphasizes: (a) completing the distribution networks in centers already served, improving the service reliability and reducing the systems' physical and financial losses; (b) extending the services to new areas on the basis of evidence that electricity is the least cost option for meeting specific energy requirements. In view of the low average income level of the majority of Benin's population and considering that basic social services have not yet been brought to the reach of the population, the mission considers that rural electrification projects should be carefully reviewed, taking into account that energy needs in most applications can be provided more economically by direct use of liquid fuels. 1.18 A distinctive feature of Benin's electric power sector is the fact that its coastal system was interconnected in the early 1970s with Togo and Ghana and through this cooperative scheme benefitted from rela- tively low cost hydropower supplies. Currently Benin has to adjust to an unexpected event which has a significant impact on its economy. Due to severe drought, Ghana curtailed its electric supplies by 50% in December 1983. These power imports supplied almost 90% of Benin's internal elec- tric power requirements the year before. To compensate for the increased share of higher cost thermal generation, Benin had to increase tariffs by 80%. Such a sudden and substantial increase will dampen growth in energy demand. 1.19 For planning purposes, the Bank projects electricity sales in Benin to grow at an average rate of 9% p.a. in the coastal system and at a much higher rate in the inland centers (14% in long established centers, 20% in the newly established ones). Demand in the binational interconnected system of Benin and Togo is projected to average 8% p.a. Togo and Benin have unilaterally pursued the policy of maintaining full back-up capacity for imported power supplies, contravening the 1968 binational treaty in which they agreed to assign full responsibility for enacting future expansion requirements to CEB. At present thermal capacity in Benin and Togo is large enough to meet the demand in the interconnected system until 1987-88, even if imports remain curtailed at the present level. It is expected that by 1988 the Nangbeto hydro power plant on the the Mono River will be commissioned. This station's energy output of about 150 GWh per year can be absorbed fully by the system,  replacing thermal generation. Further, the Nangbeto reservoir will help to regulate the seasonal water flow and allow economic development of another downstream hydroelectric site on the Mono River. 1.20 The long-term expansion of the interconnected power system of Benin and Togo is subject to three major uncertainties: the duration of Ghana's export curtailment, the results of continued hydro studies, and progress on the project to interconnect the power systems of the West African region (WAPSI). 1.21 The aim of WAPSI is to link Nigeria's mixed hydro-thermal (gas- based) system with the predominately hydro system of Ivory Coast and Ghana, and to allow for the least cost expansion of the region as a whole. CEB, the joint Benin-Togo power utility, acts as coordinator for the study of this project. However, it must be realistically expected that the full implementation of the project will take some time. It is therefore prudent to formulate a binational expansion program to meet incremental demand assuming that during its first operational phase, the regional transmission line will primarily facilitate exchanges of contingency power and energy. 1.22 Further hydro studies are needed to determine the economic feasibility of developing both countries' hydropower potential. The developable energy potential on the Mono and Ouem& Rivers is estimated to be 1,100-1,300 CWh, which compares with a projected demand of 1,700 GWh by 1998 for the binational system. Because the attainable degree of stream-flow regulation is limited, a large part of the potential is secondary energy. Seasonal energy exchanges with Ghana on the existing transmission line or the support from WAPSI will provide the most eco- nomic option for firming up hydropower generation. 1.23 The confirmation of commercially exploitable natural gas resources in the Seme field wouLd offer another possible option for power generation in the binational electric system. 1.24 In view of the high cost of power generation in isolated centers, careful consideration should be given to each center's expansion options. For the region of Abomey-Bohicon, interconnection with the coastal system has been found to be the most economic alternative. The mission also suggests that a study be made to determine the optimum use of agro-industrial residues avaiLable in this area. For the Load center of Parakou, the mission suggests that a feasibility study be made to assess wood-based power generation, united to an efficient management of the wood resources available at the Toui and Oueme Superieur forests. For the northwestern region of the Atacora, electric interconnection with the Togolese Kara system offers an economic medium-term alternative if a fuel oil based thermal plant is installed in Lama Kara. In the north- eastern region, the development of the Dyodyonga project on the Mekrou River could provide power at an attractive cost, if developed as a joint Benin-Niger project. The energy could be readily usable in Niger's Niger Valley System and allow Benin the opportunity to start electrification in a remote area.  1.25 Petroleum Products. SONACOP has been successful in importing petroleum products at :i competitive price and with an adequate level of security of supply. This is achieved by deploying a careful and aggressive procurement policy and by constructing ample storage capacity. The company had some difficulties in meeting LPG requirements due to the temporary shutdown of the Nigerian refineries closest to Benin and later due to the closing of the Nigerian border. The mission expects that more than adequate LPC supplies will be available in Nigeria and suggests that a long-term purchase agreement be sought which would enable SONACOP to plan LPG market penetration in the transport and industrial sectors, substituting more expensive oil products. 1.26 In view of the readjustment of the international refining industry, the critical financial situation of West African refineries, the small size of Benin's internal market, and the relatively short expected life of crude production at Seme, the mission strongly advises the Government not to construct a refinery in Benin. On the other hand, the mission does suggest that the Government participate actively in the search for regional oil procurement agreements to lower the cost of pe- troleum supplies to West African countries. Given SONACOP's experience in international petroleum trade, the Goverrment should solicit its advice in the regional discussions. Demand Management Measures 1.27 Pricing. The current market price for fuelwood and charcoal does not reflect its economic cost, which includes the cost of reforestation. The mission recommends that the Government explore alternative mechanisms for collecting stumpage fees for fuelwood cut in national forests as a means to enhance private planting of trees and encourage conservation at the users' end. 1.28 Retail prices for petroleum products are set by the Government above economic costs. The price structure should be modified in the future to bring prices into line with international standards. However, the effect of such a measure on fiscal revenue depends on the perme- ability of the border with Nigeria. 1.29 The average electricity tariff is adequate to meet the long run marginal cost, although it implies a cross subsidization of energy con- sumers in isolated centers. A recent tariff study, however, suggests that changes be made in the tariff structure. The present low-voltage tariff is complex, difficult to administer and not conducive to econo- mizing peak demand. The medium voltage tariff provides no incentive to save energy at peak time. An improved tariff structure will be imple- mented once the necessary computing equipment (financed under the Nangbeto credit) is installed. 1.30 Conservation Opportunities. Most industrial enterprises face severe financial problems and their operations are constrained by the  - 8 - availability of feedstocks, markets and managerial capability. The largest industrial plants are new, well designed, and show good levels of energy efficiency. The mission suggests that large scale efficiency programs not be envisaged at present, but rather that energy audits be made in selected enterprises which are undergoing rehabilitation and that a series of seminars be held on energy conservation opportunities in individual sectors. 1.31 For the short term, the mission recommends: (a) conducting energy audits in the large industrial plants as part of the rehabili- tation program and surveying energy consumption in small and medium scale industries as a first step to identifying conservation opportunities; (b) providing basic information on opportunities to improve energy efficiency in small and medium scale enterprises and assisting them in formulating conservation projects; (c) conducting a seminar at SBEE about the efficient use of electricity in the industrial sector; (d) insuring institutional coordination between SONACOP and SBEE; (e) conducting a feasibility study for using agro-industrial residues available at Bohicon for steam or co-generation. 1. 3.' For the medium term, the mission recommends: (a) connecting all major plants currently using diesel generating units to SBEE's distribution network; to that end the voltage fluctuations in the network must be corrected; (b) establishing a producer tariff as an incentive for power generation from agricultural residues; (c) investigating the economics of using natural gas and/or imported coal in the Onigbolo cement plant and in other major industries; (d) conducting a feasibility study for a fast-growing wood plantation at Save, to replace diesel oil used during the dry season for irrigation; (e) investigating the instal- lation of solar water pre-heating systems in the breweries, oil palm processing units, hotels and hospitals; and (f) evaluating energy use in residential, commercial and institutional buildings. 1.33 Information available on the transport sector is insufficient to draw up a concrete and exhaustive proposal for an energy conservation program. A detailed transport study should be made as a basis for planning the leng-term expansion of the transport infrastructure. For the specific purpose of fuel conservation in the sector the mission recommends: (a) setting up a statistical data system at the Direction CGnerale de Transport Terrestre to monitor the vehicle fleet; (b) pro- viding training to the technical vehicle inspection center in Cotonou to measure energy efficiency and to disseminate information on good driving habits and vehicle maintenance practices; (c) enforcing regulations in the main arteries of Cotonou to ensure smooth flow of traffic; (d) pro- moting the introduction of mini-buses for Cotonou; and (e) analyzing the composition and use of the publicly held vehicle fleet and assessing ways to enhance fuel efficiency. ;.34 In the household sector, the energy efficiency of fuelwood and charcoal stoves can be improved substantially. Modest efforts to dis- seminate stoves under the Direction d'Action Cooperative (Groupement des Femmes) indicate that the population is already sensitized to the  - 9 - issue. The mission therefore recommends that technical assistance be provided to a research center -- still to be identified -- for the eval- uation of improved stoves, and that the Cooperative Women's Association (which answers to the Ministry of Rural Development) be financially strengthened to disseminate new stoves and more efficient cooking techniques. This project should be coordinated with the Direction de la Recherche Scientifique et Technique and carried out as a joint effort with the Solar Energy Laboratory in Togo. 1.35 The artisanal activity in Benin is very important, but not well known. The mission suggests that a survey be carried out to study current practices and operations in the following areas: processing of oil palm products; drying and smoking of fish; and manufacuture of gari, akassa, and salt. Institutional Aspects 1.36 At present, there is no energy planning capability in Benin, nor is there an institutional framework to provide coordination and guidance to the various subsectors. The mission recommends that, as a first step, basic training be provided to individual services in the use of appropriate, simple techniques of data collection, processing and analysis and that technical staff be encouraged to participate in regional energy planning seminars. For specific issuts that need inter- ministerial attention, it is suggested that working committees be con- vened, integrated by representatives of the subsector planning units. In the medium term, the creation of an Energy Council at the Cabinet level should be envisaged to speed up decision making. To insure proper coordination, it would be necessary to establish a technical secretariat in charge of analyzing project documents submitted by the individual services in terms of sectorial priorities and their insertion in the national economic plan. 1.37 The Ministry of Rural Development and Cooperative Action (MDRAC) is responsible for all aspects of the forestry sector. After some reorganization, the Direction des Eaux, Forets et Chasses (DEFC) is responsible for legisLation, planning, reforestation and management. The current Bank project has an important technical assistance component to strengthen this unit. The recently created public enterprise, ONAB, has been assigned the responsibility for commercial forest exploitation, and receives technical assistance from the Federal Republic of Germany. The regional CARDER, which plays an important role in cooperative agricul- tural development, has recently been assigned responsibility for rural reforestation. This institutional arrangement is favorable for integrated agro-silvicultural development and for the introduction of biomass energy conversion systems. The mission therefore recommends that technical assistance be provided to strengthen these entities. 1.38 The Ministry of Finance and Economy (MFE) has, in principle, responsibility for monitoring oil exploration through its Service des Hydrocarbures. In practice, the operations of Saga Petroleum, holder of the service contract for the Seme oilfield, are supervised by Beninese  - 10 - officials appointed to Saga. For the implementation of the second phase development of this field, the Coverment has decided to establish a separate project unit to monitor the project. 1.39 SONACOP has a monopoly on importing and distributing petroleum products in Benin. It appears to be well directed and successful in meeting internal needs at a competitive price. The society is profitable but faces severe constraints on working capital. 1.40 There are two public utilities active in the electric sector: (a) the national SBEE, formed in 1974, with the purpose of electric power generation, transmission and distribution, as well as water supply and waste water disposal; and (b) the binational CEB, established under the 1968 treaty between Benin and Togo, with a dual mandate as a public utility for the two countries and as a directorate with the authority to regulate many aspects of the electric utility industry. Under the broad mandate conferred on CEB, a pragmatic division of responsibilities among CEB and the national utilities should be established. 1.41 To implement the proposed conservation measures, the mission proposes that part of the staff of the Service des Hydrocarbures be retrained and reorganized as a national Energy Conservation Center. This service has a group of professionals, mostly chemical engineers, who are currently underutilized. This team should be given technical assistance to monitor energy use in the industrial and transport sectors, survey energy consumption patterns in the artisanal sector, serve as liaison between consumers and energy suppliers (SBEE-SONACOP), and develop proj- ects for increasing energy efficiency.  - 11 - II. DEMAND MANAGEMENT PROGRAM Energy Balance 2.1 Benin's energy balance for 1982 reflects the country's pre- dominantly rural economy. In 1982, gross per capita energy consumption was on the order of 220 kgoe, of which commercial energy consumption was only 29 kgoe (13%) per person. The mission estimates that 86% of energy requirements are supplied from fuelwood and other biomass which are mainly used as cooking fuels in households and artisanal activities. Official imports of petroleum products represent about 11% of energy supply. In addition, the mission estimates that in 1982 some 16,000 toe of petroleum products, equivalent to about 7% of total official imports, were smuggled into Benin from neighboring countries. Transport uses about 69% of these hydrocarbons, industry 11%, households 16%, and power generation 4%. Electricity supplies only 1.3% of the final energy needs; 41% goes to households mainly in the coastal area, 37% to industry and 22% to commerce and administration. 2.2 Energy losses average a low 5% of primary inputs, due to the limited amount of conversion activities in the power sector and in the fuelwood chain. The average efficiency with which energy is used by the final consumer is estimated at a low 15%, due to the large share of fuelwood in household consumption and the fact that improved stove technology has not yet been introduced in Benin at a significant scale. The importance of increasing the efficiency factor cannot be overstressed as the most economical means to meet incremental demand. For example, a 2 point increase in the energy efficiency factor has the same effect in volumetric terms as the discovery of the Simi oil field. Table 2.1: BENIN ENERGY BALANCE, 1982 Annual Productive Sector of Effective Energy Sources Capacity Gross Demand Consumption Final Demand End-Use (Ktoe) (Ktoe) (%) (Ktoe) (%) (Ktoe) (%) Biomass 2,000 732 86 Households 707 82 96 74 Petroleum 190 a/ 108 b/ 13 Industry 30 4 15 12 Electricity 70 13 2 Transport 74 9 16 12 Commerce & Adm. 3 - 3 2 Losses Energy System 39 5 - - Total 2,260 853 100 853 100 130 100 a/ Petroleum production refers to 1983. b/ Includes illegal imports of oil products. Source: Mission estimates - Annexes 2.1-2.2.  - 12 - 2.3 Benin imports most of its comnercial energy requirements. In 1983 the cost of petroleum imports (net of re-exports to Niger) amounted to FCFA 13.8 billion (US$47.9 million), which is equivalent to 20% of the value of merchandise exports and 8.4% of total merchandise imports. Electricity imports from Ghana, which account for 90Z of total power consumption, have an estimated cost of FCFA 1.473 billion (US$4.4 mil- lion), 1/ representing 2% of export revenue. In December 1983, Ghana imposed rationing on electricity supplies because of the critically low water level in the Volta Lake. A preliminary estimate indicates that oil imports to thermally generate the required supplies will amount to some 27,000 toe, or US$7 million 2/ in 1984. 2.4 The statistical basis underlying these estimates is extremely weak. Therefore the mission recommends: (a) to centralize energy data collection to check the consistency of primary statistical data; (b) to carry out a survey to assess actuaL fuelwood, charcoal and commercial energy consumption in the household sector; (c) to survey the energy consumption in small scale and cottage industries; (d) to develop a transport sector study. Given the significance of non-recorded oil imports from Nigeria, a best estimate of this demand component should be made. Projected Energy Balances 2.5 As a framework for examining policy options and to assess the likely demand for hydrocarbons, the mission projected the energy balance to 1988 (five year horizon) and 1998 (fifteen year horizon). On the demand side, the projections reflect the economic growth scenarios pro- jected by the Bank on the basis of the perceived constraints of the economy such as a slowdown of demand in neighboring countries and diffi- culties in achieving rapid gains in agriculture or implementing new industrial activities. (See TabLe 2.2.) 2.6 On the supply side, the mission assumed an unconstrained supply of biomass and the supply schedules for hydropower and imported electri- city as prepared in the master plan. The main conclusions that can be drawn from this exercise under the low growth scenario are: (a) Total gross energy requirements are projected in the energy balances to grow an average of 4.4% p.a. between 1982-88 and at 3.6% p.a. between 1988 and 1998. Assuming an average CDP growth of 3X, this would indicate an energy/GDP elasticity of 1/ The total amount of electricity imported was 151 GWh at FCFA 9.75/kWh. The exchange rate averaged FCFA 336/US$ in 1982. 21 Based on the assumption that the 252 GWh available to CEB are dis- tributed: Togo, 177 GWh and Benin, 75 GWh and that the power re- quirements of the Interconnected system in Benin are 187 GWh.  - 13 - 1.5 during the five-year period and 1.2 for the second period. Table 2.2: ECONOMIC STRUCTURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH GDP Structure Annual Growth Rate 1982-9O 1972 1981 1972-76 1976-81 Best Alternative (% Current Prices) (1978 Prices) Estimate Scenario Primary Sector 46.8 43.7 0.8 0.7 2.7 1.0 Secondary Sector 12.0 12.8 -1.1 6.8 6.2 4.5 Services 41.2 43.5 0.9 4.7 3.3 2.2 GDP 100.0 100.0 0.9 3.6 3.4 2.1 Source: Benin: Economic Performance and Prospects. IBRD - 1983. (b) The relative share of biomass in total gross energy supplies will gradually decline (from 87% in 1982, to 80% in 1988, and to 70% in 1998) and the demand for petroleum products will increase to about 4,700 b/d in 1988 and 10,000 b/d in 1998. Under the present envisaged development scheme for the Seme oil field, crude oil production will peak in 1988/89 and probably cease by 1992-94. One important objective of the energy policy should be to carefully monitor petroleum demand, to foster energy conservation measures, and promote the substitution of cheaper fuels. (c) The share of electricity in final non-biomass consumption de- creases from about 11% in 1982 to 9% in 1988 due to the sharp rise in electricity tariffs necessary to compensate for the reduction in cheaper imported supplies. A higher growth of electricity demand and the substitution of electricity is warranted in the long term if reliable and cheaper supplies become available through the West African interconnections. (d) in the projections, the gross demand for biomass grows at a slower rate than the average growth rate for total energy requirements and the assumed population growth, mainly because of the underlying assumptions that efficiency in biomass use will increase and that the modern sector of the economy will depend on commercial fuels. Given Benin's important biomass resources, policies encouraging the conversion of agricultural residues into industrial fuels and into electricity must be evaluated.  - 14 - Substitution and Conservation 2.7 The following section has the objectives of: (a) studying the current energy use in each sector of consumption; (b) explaining the assumptions for projecting energy demand to 1988 and 1998; and (c) eval- uating energy conservation and substitution opportunities. Industrial Sector 2.8 Energy is not the most important issue in the industrial sector in Benin. Large energy using faciLities (e.g., cement, sugar) were built only recently and technically are well conceived. Unfortunately, these plants are either shut down or operating at 10-20% capacity because of constraints on the availability of feedstocks and raw materials, markets for products, and working capital. For example, the Onigbolo cement plant, which is by far the largest potential user of heavy fuel oil (45,000 tonnes at full capacity) is idle because expected sales to Nigeria have not taken place; the brand new sugar plant at Save (SSS) is not likely to meet its 1983 and 1984 production goals because housing facilites for temporary manpower during the cane harvest season were not built and because the sugar sales agreement with Nigeria has not been concluded. 2.9 The cash flow situation of most enterprises is alarming and if solutions are not found in the short term, plants will have to be shut down, eliminating any need for programs to improve energy efficiency. Industrial Energy Use Patterns 2.10 The amount of fuel and electricity consumed in the industrial sector is not known precisely. The mission's estimates indicate that petroleum consumption in 1982 was around 11,000 toe and electricity consumption around 50 GWh, for a maximum peak demand of 22 MW (Table 2.3). 3/ The 1983 energy consumption was probably lower as most plants were operating at levels well below those of 1982. 2.11 Nine plants engaged in the production of clinker (ONICBOLO), cement (SONACI and SCB), tiles and refractories (CIB), food and beverages (La Beninoise, SONICOG) and textiles (SOBETEX) consumed two-thirds of the oil and electricity used by the sector in 1982. 2.12 The energy efficiency levels of the two most energy intensive plants in Benin (i.e., ONIGBOLO and SSS) are not known because neither of these plants has operated yet under normal conditions, and during the mission's visit both plants were idle. Detailed reviews of their design showed, however, that these plants were well conceived and should lead to satisfactory levels of energy efficiency. 3/ Indicating a vEry low plant load factor (26% on the average).  - 15 - 2.13 The energy efficiency levels were also good at both cement grinding plants (35 kWh/tonne of cement). SONICOC's oil mill in Bohicon operates on waste fuels (cotton seed hulls) and uses just a small amount of fuel oil for start-up, and diesel oil to generate electricity. The MIFOR sawmill (Bohicon) also generates its electricity from diesel gener- ators and does not require fuel for thermal uses. There are plans under- way to assess the feasibility of using biomass gasifiers running on wood wastes to generate power and subsequently eliminate all purchased fuel requirements (Chapter V). The mission considers that at present elec- tricity tariffs, industries do not have an incentive to generate power from waste materials. Tabie 2.3: INDUSTRIAL ENERGY DEMAND (1982) Production Fuel Electricity 3 Heavy Oil Diesel Oil Peak Energy Plant/Activity (10 tons/year) (toe/yr) (toe/yr) (MW) (GWh/yr) ONIGBOLO (clinker) * 45.0 4,140 neg. 8. 14.0 SONACI (cement) 122.3 -- -- 2.0 4.3 S.C.B. (cement) 125.0 -_ __ 2.0 4.5 C.I.B. (const. mat.) * b/ .2 _ 96 .7 1.0 La Beninoise (beer) Cotonou * - 36.0 -- 1,514 2.2 2.0 Parakou * 15.0 651 980 0.8 2.2 IBETEX (textile) n/a SOBETEX (textile) n/a -- 1,000 ' 2.0 4.0 MIFOR Bohicon (wood) 4.0 77 -- -- SONICOG - Cotonou (oil) 13.0 314 843 2.9 __ Porto Novo (soapj * 6.0 623 58 0.16 neg. Bohicon (oil) ' - 2.6 50 (300) 1 neg. SONAFEL (raw materials) 20 -- 0.2 neg. GMB (flour) * 44.0 -- 0.2 1.3 2.5 Subtotal 6,208 4,868 19.2 37.4 Others 2.8 12.5 Total 22.0 49.9 * Plants visited during in-country mission. a/ Started operation in 1982. b/ Assuming .005 toe/hi and 12 kWh/hI. c/ Rough estimate. d/ SONICOG's capacity exceeds 30,000 tons. Production in 1982 was only 2,600 tons. Opportunities for Energy Conservation 2.14 Efforts to improve energy efficiency and to identify substi- tution opportunities should be part of the industrial rehabilitation program. The mission beLieves that in the short-term, the potential for achieving savings in oil and electricity consumption is limited. Regard- ing electricity, the only possibility for improvement identified by the mission pertains to reactive power. Potential electricity savings are, therefore, estimated at 2-3% of total electricity needs or 1-1.5 CWh/year  - 16 - under 1982 conditions, which correspond roughly to a limited FCFA 20-30 million. Improving the efficiency of diesel oil used in self-generation would be difficult to achieve. The only remaining option lies in the diesel and fuel oil used for steam raising and direct heat generation. Based on on-site observation (which revealed a lack of instrumentation and inadequate insulation and air/fuel ratio control) and experiences from other countries where detailed audits have been conducted (e.g., Peru, Tunisia, Thailand, Argentina), it is estimated that ten percent could be saved with minor maintenance and operation modifications and minor equipment retrofitting. This figure corresponds to approximately 1,000 toe/year or FCFA 130 million. Improving the energy efficiency in the combustion of agricultural residues in the food processing plants (which do not have sufficient instrumentation and controls) could result in potential savings and increase the availability of these residues to other industries. However, careful analysis of transport and storage costs is warranted to assess their alternative use. In the longer term, substitution of oil by natural gas, coal and agricultural residues should be envisaged. Industrial Energy Demand Forecast 2.15 The mission estimated future energy demand (Table 2.4) using (a) information obtained from interviews with individual plant managers and government officials responsible for industrial programs; (b) infor- mation contained in long-term planning documents; and (c) rough estimates of the future evolution of the industrial sector (for the aggregate con- sumption of small plants). It is expected that: (a) Total oil consumption will increase from its 1982 level of 11,000 toe to 51,000-61,000 toe in 1988 and 110,000 toe in 1998, mainly due to increased production at ONIGBOLO and to SSS's outside energy requirements for irrigation. These figures translate into an average growth rate of 15% p.a. (b) Total electricity consumption will increase from an estimated 47 GWh in 1982 to 85-96 GWh in 1988 and to 167-183 GWh in 1998. This is an average annual rate of increase of 7.3-7.8%. ONICBOLO will consume roughly 40% of the oil and electricity used by the whole sector through the forecast period. Recommendations 2.16 The mission's recommendations for energy demand management are divided into short term (within the next three years) and longer term (after 1986). 2.17 Short Term (a) Conduct an energy survey to estimate fuel and electricity con- sumption in the small and medium-sized industry (currently unknown). Responsibility for the survey could be given to the Ministry of Planning or the Ministry of Finance and Economy.  - 17 - (b) Provide basic information on opportunities for improving energy efficiency to small and medium-sized enterprises consuming more than 100 toelyear (probably less than 50 enterprises). (c) Conduct seminars at SBEE on the efficient use of electricity in the industrial sector. (d) Include plant energy audits in major rehabilitation programs. (e) Ensure that the institutional framework allows coordination between SONACOP snd SBEE in industrial energy supply. (f) Study the possibility of establishing a producer tariff for enterprises using agricultural residues for power generation. (g) Conduct a feasibility study for cogeneration in Bohicon to supply power to SBEE, and power and steam to a few industrial plants using available agricultural by-products and wood wastes as fuel. 2.18 Long Term (a) Investigate the economics of substituting natural gas, if available. This implies evaluating retrofitting requirements and preliminary economic evaluation (Chapter III). (b) Connect all major plants currently using diesel generating units to the SBEE grid. Cc) Conduct a feasibility study for converting the ONIGBOLO cement plant to use an alternative, cheaper fuel, such as natural gas or coal. (d) Conduct a feasibility study for establishing a fast-growing wood plantation in Save. The amount of bagasse available at SSS will not be sufficient to provide both the mill's require- ments and irrigation pumping needs during the dry season. (e) Conduct feasibility studies for the use of solar water heaters to preheat industrial water (Chapter V).  Table 2.4: INDUSTRIAL ENEMT DEMAND FORECAST TO 1988 (5 YEARS) AND I998 (i5 YEARS) IN BENIN Plant facility Production Fuel Electricity Production Fuel Electrllty Production Fuel Electricity Heavy 0105D 1 Heavy Diesel Heavy Diesel Fuel Oil Oil Peak Energy Fuel Oil Oil Peek Energy Fuel Oil Oll Peak Energy (10 tons/yr) (toe/yr) (toe/yr) (MV) (GWh/yr) (10 tons/yr) (toe/yr) (toe/yr) (MW) (GWh/yr) (10 tons/yr) (toe/yr) (toe/yr) (MV) (CWh/yr) ON I GOLO (clinker) * 45 4,140 nag 8 14,0 350-450 31,800-41,000 n/a 8 29,7-38,2 500 45,000 n/a 12 D/ 60-75 SONACI (cement) 122.3 -- -- 2.0 4,3 ISO -- -- 2,0 5.3 200 -- -- 2 7 S,C.D, (cogent) 125 -- -- 2,0 4,5 150 -- -- 2,0 5,3 150 -- -- 2 5,3 C.I,.I (const,met,) ,2 -- 96 .7 1,0 2-4 -- 400-850 1,5 2-4 2-4 -- 850 1.5 2-4 La Beninoise (beer) -/ 76,5 -- 1,600 1,7 3,2 35 -- 2,200 1,? 4 35 -- 2,200 1.2 4 IRETEX (textile) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- SOETEX (tentile) - n/a -- (1,000 (2,0) (4,0) n/a -- (1,500) (2,5) (5 1 n/a -- (2,000 (2.5) (7) MIFO (wood) 4 __ 77 __ -- 28 S --o -- 26' -- 80 -- SONICOG Bohicon (oil) * (12 50 -' (300) I neg (30) (50) (800) I neg (30) (50) (800) I neg Bohicon (corn miil) " - -- -- -- -- -- n/a -- (100) 1,5) 1,0 n/e -- (100) ,5 I,O S,S.S. (sugar) I*/ 35 10,000 n/a n/o 40 -- 10,000 n/a n/a LAKOSSA (textile) -- -- _ _ -- -- *- -- n/a (2,000) _ 2- 5-7 Subtotal 4.190 3,073 16,49 1,0 31,800-41.000 15,080-15.530 187 48.3-62,8 47.050 16.030 24,7 92-109 Others (GWO, SO AFEL) 18,0001/ (5.0) 16,0 (5,000) (26,300) (9,0) (28.32 (10,000) 438,400) (23,3 (73,6) Total (