Jordan - Manpower Development Project

Doumentof The World Bank ]FOR OMCIAL USE ONLY /AI 2 G33- 1 Report N. 5704-30 STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN FIRST MiAN'POWER DEVELOPMENT PROJECT September 24, 1985 Education and Manpower Development Division Europe, Middle East and North Africa Region lhis decueet h a rudicd ili&btdemd my e mod by reeWleats dy Is the pedminme of Itheir offcia dotlea& lb cg.jmb may met erwise be dAwldo without Wiw Um.k amtorboatie-  PRINCIPAL ABBREVIAIIONS AND ACRONYMS USED GVSS - General Vocational Secondary School ICB - International Competitive Bidding Jim - Jordan Institute of Management JIPA - Jordan Institute of Public Administration LCB - Local Competitive Bidding MOE - Ministry of Education MO - Ministry of Health MOL - Ministry of Labor MOP - Ministry of Planning MOPW - Ministry of Public Works NIPITI - Nursing/Paramedical Integrated Training Institute OSKI - Occupational Safety and Health Institute PIU - Project Implementation Unit PMUI - Project Management Uait TA - Technical Assistance TTC - Trade Training Center UNRWA - United Nations Relief and Works Administration VTC - Vocational Training Corporation CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS US Dollar ($) 1.00 = Jordanian Dinar (JD) 0.400 JD 1.000 = US$2.50 GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31  FOR OFCIAL USE ONLY RASBhITE KIN4D0K OF JORDAN FIRST MANPOWER DEVELOPHENT PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT Table of Contents Page No. PRINCIPAL ABBREVIAIIONS AND ACRONY!S USED ............... (i) BASIC DATA ................................. (ii) I. THE SETTIN .1 Development and Econmic Setting . . Manpower Considerations ........................ . 2 Sector Background ....................................... 4 The Vocational Training Corporation (VTC) ............... 4 Management and Administrative Training . ................. 6 Health Services and Manpower . . 8 Training of Nurses, Midwives and Health Technicians-................--.-........ 9 Bank Strategy and Lending for Education and Training..: .............................. 10 Experience with P ast .......................................... 11 II TH E PROJECT13 Introduction .13 Project Objectives ..................................... 13 Project Composition .................................. 13 Project Output Contribution to Meeting Manpower Requirements .......................... 15 Trade Training Centers (TTCs) ........................... 17 Occupational Safety and Health Institute (OSRI) ................................ 17 Strengthening the Jordan lstitute of Public Administration (JIPA) ........................ 18 Nursing/Paramedical Integrated Training Institute (NPITI) ............................. 18 Technical Assistance (TA) Summary . . 19 This document has a restited distrbution and may be used by reipents only in the performance of I their offKl duties Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  Table of Contents (Continued) Page No. III. PROJECT COSTS, FINANCING, KANAGEMENT AND EMPLEMENTATION ..................................... 20 Project Costs .. 20 Recurrent Costs ..23 Financing Plan ..23 Disbursemeuts ..25 Accounting and Auditing . .25 Special Accout ..26 Project Managemnt ..26 Status of Preparation .. 27 Project Implementation ..28 IV. BENlEFITS AND RISKS .30 Benefits . .30 Risks..----.30 V. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOM MEATION. .31 SCHEDULES I. Technical Assistance II. Project Implementation III. Disbursements ANNEXES 1. Annual Growth Rates and Structure of Employment (1972-83) 2. Manpower Requirements by Occupation 1980-90 3. Vocational Training Corporation--Organization, Plan of Action, and Budget 4. Vocational Training Corporation-- Enrollments in Trade Training Centers 5. Health Manpower--Supply and Demand Estimates at Skilled and Semi-Skilled Worker Levels 6. Vocational Training Corporation-Project Training Centers-- Enrollment, Training Places, Output 7. Manpower Supply and Demand Estimates at Skilled and Semi-Skilled Worker Levels 8. Project Base Cost and Financing Details for Project Sub-Components 9. Area and Capital Cost Per Trainee/Student Place 10. Local Competitive Bidding Procedures 11. Comparative Education Indicators 12. Selected Documents and Data Available in Project File MAP  (ii) HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN BASIC DATA a/ Population (1983 Estimate) Jordan (East Bank only) 2.6 million Annual rate of growth: including inmigration 4.0% current natural increnase 3.4% Proportion less than 15 years old 50% labor Force (1983) 570,000 X in secondary sector 27.0 GMP Per Capita (1983-East Bank only) US$1,710 School Enrollments (1983/84) Enrollments Girls as 2 of Level at Age Group Grade (000's) Enrollments Primary (6-11) 1- 6 441.1 47.9 Preparatory (12-14) 7- 9 191.4 46.2 Secondary (L5_17) 10-12 125.3 47.3 Higher (18-23) 13-16+ 53.9 45.3 VTC Enrollmeats - 1981/82 1984/85 Apprenticeship 1,571 5,606 Short Training Courses 875 847 Upgrading 68 200 a/ All data are for East Bank only.  EASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN FIRST MANPOWER DEVELOPMENT PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT Loan and Project Sumnary Borrower: Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan Amount: US$10.2 million equivalent Terms: 15 years, including 3 years of grace, at the standard variable rate interest Project Description: The project would assist the orderly growth and development of the country's educat onltraining system by providing support for expansion of priority manpower development programs_ It would assist the Vocational Training Corporation to: (a) establish and equip four new and extend and equip two existing trade training centers, and to introduce key specializations not currently provided for (instrumentation and control systems; business equipment maintenance; and operation/ maintenance of heavy equipment); (b) provide technical assistance to develop new curricula and train staff for new specializations in the trade training centers; and (c) establish, equip and provide related technical assistance for an occupational safety and health institute, thereby enhancing worker productivity. The project would also provide technical assistance and training equipment for upgrading management/administration training programs for the Jordan Institute of Public Administration to complete and enhance Jordan's management training capacity for the public and private sectors. In addition, the project would assist the Ministry of Health to establish and equip a Nursing/Paramedical Integrated Training Institute, and provide technical assistance for developing curricula and staff training for a predominantly female paramedical/nursing profession. Benefits and Risks The project would strengthen Jordan's manpower development system, and increase annual training output by 1,300 skilled and semi-skilled workers and 260 nursing and paramedical technicians. In addition, occupational education and training programs would be directed to some 500 enterprise managers and trainers per year, and the quality and coverage of management/ administration programs provided annually to about 1,000 private and public sector managers would be upgraded. There are no substantive risks anticipated with the project.  (ii) Estimated Proiect Costs* Local Foreign Total (US$Million) Training Skilled Workers (VTC) 2.6 4.9 7.5 Training Nurses, Midwives and Paramedies (HOH) 2.0 3.2 5.2 Trining Public and Private Sector Managers (JIPA) 0.1 0.6 0.7 Total Baseline Costs 4.7 8.7 13.4 Contingencies Physical 0.5 0.9 1.4 Price 1.1 2.4 3.5 Total Project Costs 6.3 12.0 18.3 Financing Plan Government 6.3 1.8 8.1 Bank - 10.2 10.2 Total 6.3 12.0 18.3 *These estimates exclude taxes from which project agencies are exempted. Estimated Disbursements Bank Fiscal Year 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Annual 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.4 2.9 1.8 1.1 0.5 Cumulative 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.9 6.8 8.6 9.7 10.2 Rate of Return: Not applicable.  HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN FIRST MANPOWER DEVELOPMENT PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT I. THE SETTING Development and Economic Setting 1.01 Political stability, sound economic management, and favorable external circumstances enabled Jordan to record impressive socio-economic accomplishments in the 1970's, including an average annual economic growth rate of 12Z in real terms for the period 1976-80. This performance was in part attributable to spill-over benefits from the economic boom in neighboring oil-exporting countries, including a rising volume of remittances from a sharply increased number of Jordanians working in the oil-rich countries, growing regional demand for Jordanian exports, and large inflows of grants, mainly from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait. In addition, Jordan benefited from the relocation of foreign corporations which transferred from war-torn Beirut, and from heavy use of the port of Aqaba for transit trade to Iraq due to the Iraq-Iran war. 1.02 To achieve the general objective of sustaining the momentum of development activities and high economic growth rates, the 1981-85 Development Plan called for further development of the country's limited natural resources base (agriculture, water and domestic energy), creation of an institutional framework and investment climate to strengthen the private sector, extending education, health and other public services and utilities to the regions and reducing regional income disparties, and a variety of measures that appropriately recognized the crucial iole of human resources in Jordan's development process. Specifically, human resources objectives in the Plan included: raising the production potential of the population through education and training; increasing the participation of women in the labor force; and upgrading the efficiency of the public sector. 1.03 Sustaining the momentum of development and economic growth has been increasingly challenging for Jordan in the 1980's. Falling oil prices have adversely altered the economic circumstances of neighboring oil-endowed countries, and this has been reflected in a diminishing scale of grant assistance available to Jordan. In addition, slower economic expansion in the oil states has curtailed their demand for Jordanian workers. Migration for employment opportunities were in any event becoming relatively scarcer for Jordanians as the infrastructure building phase of development approached completion in the Gulf States, and because the oil states had increasingly met their requirements for foreign manpower by engaging lower cost Asian labor. Consequently, the net inflow of Jordanian worker's remittances, which in 1980  - 2 - were equivalent to a little over one-fifth of GDP, stabilized and recently have declined slightly. For the 1981-85 Development Plan period, average annual economic growth is now estimated by the Bank to be 5-6X, and GDP growth is expected to hover during the next few years at the level of 4-5X per annum in real terms. Manpower Considerations 1.04 The population of the East Bank, estimated at 2.6 million in 1983, has been increasing at an average annual rate of about 41 since enumeration in the 1979 Population Census. In addition to a natural rate of increase of 3.41 due to sustained high birth rates and declining mortality rates, the East Bank population has been augmented by migration from the West Bank and, more significantly, by immigration of non-Jordanian workers to replace Jordanian migrants to the oil states. 1.05 Jordan's 1/ population is young (nearly half under the age of 15). mainly urban (601 of the total), well educated (over 901 of the 6-14 age group are enrolled in schools) and highly mobile. Despite a slowdown in out-migration and signs of returning migration, the Ministry of Labor (MOL) estimates the total number of Jordanian workers abroad in 1985 to be 365,000, nearly 401 of the Jordanian labor force. Of the Jordanian migrants, about 851 are working in the oil-exporting Middle East countries. The fact that about one-fourth of these are professionals and technicians arm almost two-thirds are skilled workers suggests that the quality of Jordan's human capital has been a key factor in explaining the migrants' continued success in the currently prevailing relatively loose regional labor market. 1.06 From the mid 1970's to the early 1980's, a net deficit of manpower available to the domestic labor market appeared and grew. East Bank employment grew at an average annual rate of 4.3Z (5.51 excluding agriculture) during the period 1972-79, and 4.71 (3.81 eluding agriculture) from 1979 to reach an estimated 570,000 in 1983 (Annex 1). In spite of higher male labor force participation rates responsive to plentiful job opportunities, and increasing numbers of educated females participating in the labor force, Jordan found it necessary in the mid-1970's to open its labor market to non-Jordanians in order to fill domestic job openings and offset the large-scale out-migration of Jordanians to the oil states. By 1983, approximately 130,000 non-Jordanians accounted for nearly one-quarter of the resident East Bank labor force. 1.07 The contrast is sharp between the net manpower deficit situation of the past decade and a prospective net surplus situation for the remainder of the 1980's and on into the 1990's. Jordanian nationals' labor force growth in the East Bank is projected to exceed 6X per annum because of rapid population growth, increasing female labor force participation, and reduced migration for employment opportunities in the Gulf labor market. By 1990, the net surplus 1/ All references to Jordan refer only to the East Bank of Jordan.  -3- could reach soae 180.000. or 23Z of the labor force. The projected manpower surplus. however, takes only partial account of the dynamics of the Labor market, and it is quite possible that an increasing volume of e=cess labor would emert downward pressure on wages and foster labor intensive economic growth, thereby increasing labor demand. Nevertheless, as Table 1.1 below sbows, the orders of osgnitude of imbalances between the education/ training system outputs and occupational requirements indicate that adjustments are required. Table 1.1: PROJECTED MANPOWER SURPLUSES AND SHORTAGES OF JORDANIANS BY OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTER IN 1990 a! ('000) Labor Balances National Natio-nl Shortage of Surplus of Labor Labor National National Supply Demand Lbbor Labor 1. Scientists. Engieers and Related Technicians (encl. Selth) 28.3 25.7 2.6 2. Health Professionals and Technicians 13.0 16.9 3.9 3. Teachers and Other Professionals 108.1 67.8 40.3 4 Nigh Level Managers (exrL. Agric.) 21.7 24.6 2.9 5. Working Prospecturs. Trade and Agric. Managers, and White Collar Supervisors 54.9 23.1 31.8 6. Blue Collar Supervisors and Foremen, Skilled and Semi-Skilled Workers 174.9 258.1 83.2 of which: (Blue Collar Supervisors and Foremen) (13.7) (21.4) (7.7) (Agric. Managers and Skilled Farm Workers) (14.2) (24.6) (10.4) (Skilled Non-Farm Manual Workers) (53.2) (62.3) (9.1) (Semi-Skilled Manual Workers, exS2. Service Workers) (93.8) (149.8) (56.0) 7. Skilled and Semi-Skilled Office, Service and Other Non-!anual Workers 299.5 100.5 199.0 8. Unskilled 84.0 86.3 2.3 Total 784.4 603.0 Gross Surpluses/Shortages 92.3 273_7 Net Surplus 181.4 a/ Data on projected manpower demand and supply are derived from 'Kanpower Development in Jordan." issued Jiue 1984. Mhe projections assume average annual economic growth rates of 6.2Z for 1981-85, and 4.9Z for 1986-90. Annex 2 provides more detailed projections of manpower requiremnts by occupation. a  - 4 - 1.08 The required adjustments would be facilitated by early introduction of the following remedial measures: encouragement of small- and medium-scale labor intensive industries oriented to exports; appropriate population, immigration and migration policies; establishment of a labor market information system (currently under development) as a basis for policy formulation and program monitoring; and adjustments to the education/training system to ensure, at a minimum, that manpower shortages do not coexist with an overall labor surplus. Specifically, education/training system adjustments of high priority are: (a) improvement and expansion of vocational training programs- f_r "blue collar" skilled and semi-skilled workers and supervisors, particu arly for industry; (b) reinforcement of management training, especially in-service upgrading for the current corps of managers (private and public sectors) which grew rapidly over the past decade, as well as pre-service training for managers for new, more sophisticated enterprises; and (c) expansion of health technician and para-professional training programs. Sector Background 1.09 Jordan's general education system is well-developed. Basic education (grades 1-9) is compulsory, and female and rural students are equitably represented in primary and secondary schools. In keeping with a major education policy decision of 1984, a secondary school admission examination has been introduced, and of those who pass this examination, no more than 601 of males and 70X of females are allowed to enroll in general (academic) secondary (grades 10-12) schools. Others may enroll in MOE vocational education programs or vocational training programs sponsored by other agencies, including the Vocational Training Corpcration (VTC). This adjustment of flows through the education/training system is timely and appropriate to meet the country's current and projected labor market requirements (paras. 1.07-1.08). Approximately 60X of students completing secondary school enter higher education institutions in Jordan, with about two-thirds enrolling in the country's 47 private and public community colleges (1 to 3 years post-secondary) and one-third enrolling in the three public universities. Private financing plays a major role in the higher education of Jordanians, as evidenced by the fact that private institutions account for over 60S of commmnity college enrollments, and the number of Jordanians studying in universities abroad (virtually all studying at their own expense) is some three times as great as enrollments in the domestic universities. A principal challenge now facing the Government is to expand and strengthen the technical and vocational programs which prepare Jordanian youths and adults for priority labor market requirements. The proposed project would assist the Government to meet this challenge through provision of support to the principal agencies/institutions involved in those priority areas. Those agencies are the VTC for skilled worker training/upgrading, (paras. 1.10-1.13), the Jordan Institute of Public Administration (JIPA) (paras. 1.15-1.16), both autonomous bodies, and the Ministry of Health (MOH) (paras. 1.20-1.22). The Vocational Training Corporation (VTC) 1.10 The VTC, an autonomous governmental organization, was established in May 1976 to promote manpower training and to develop job organization and classification. The VTC is administered by a tri5partite Board of Directors chaired by the Minister of Labor, and including the Director General of the  VTC as Vice-Chairman. The composition of the Board of Directors and the administrative structure of the VTC are given in Annex 3. The VTC currently employs about 400 staff, of whom some 60 are in administration, 260 in tear ing and supervisory posts, and the remainder in support staff positions. Program quality control is effected through 7 training coordinators and 25 training officers. Part-time teachers and instructors drawn from industry and the MOE supplement the full-time instructors (about 190) and teachers (40). Recruitment and retention of VTC staff has been facilitated by special salary scales, slightly higher than those of the civil service, and special allowances for technical staff. 1.11 The VTC offers: ta) Three-year apprenticeship programs (admission prequisite is nine years of basic education) leading to a skilled worker certificate. On average, the first- and second-year curriculum includes 6 weekly hours of general subjects (Arabic, English, Religion and Science), 36 hours of practical work (50Z in the center and 50X in industry) and 5 hours related theory; training starts with three months' of tasic multi-discipline training and one month of basic training in the selected specialization. Dropout is low, about 10Z, mainly after basic training. All courses are of a modular character. There are no repeaters because the training period is extended until the trainee completes satisfactorily each training module. The high practical training content in the program is appropriate, and employer response and satisfaction is good. The VTC has placed priority on the apprenticeship program, as reflected in enrollment growth from 1,600 in 1981/82 to 5,600 in 1984. Output correspondingly rose from 500 to 1,600 during this period. (b) A variety of short intensivre training courses (three to six months) for workers with a minimum general education. These courses are particularly valuable for retraining workers who are making voluntary or involuntary job shifts, including return migrant workers. Enrollments have remained relatively constant at about 850 over the 1981-84 period, with output approximately 90% of enrollment. (c) Upgrading courses for employed workers. Curricula and course duration are tailored to employer needs. Enrollments have fluctuated (see Annex 4) mainly due to availability of VTC facilities and staff. (d) Training (60 hours) and upgrading (20-30 hours) courses for VTC instructors and supervisors in teaching methods and techniques. (e) Occupational safety and health consultations with enterprises and seminars for managers, safety officers, and trainers for the purpose of increasing workforce productivity by lowering the incidence of occupational accidents and injuries.  1.12 To carry out its institutional training, the VTC uses its 8 trade training centers (TTCs) 11 (a ninth one is now under construction in the North Jordan Valley), 10 centers attached to large industries, and a number of MOE facilities (technical schools and tzaining centers) in the afternoons. The vast majority of VTC trainees are males, and training courses are preponderantly oriented to the industrial sector. Only one center (Marka) offers secretarial and dressmaking courses to female trainees. Three small intensive training centers for girls started functioning recently within the framework of a Bank Urban Development Project. Three additional (2 for girls and 1 for boys) will start functioning shortly. A hotel and catering course is offered in the Wadi Seir Center and an agricultural program has been introduced this year in the Middle Ghor Center. The VTC draft plan for program expansion and diversification is summarized in Annex 3. 1.13 The VTC revenue was JD 2.7 million (US$6.7 million) in 1984, including revenue of JD 159.,OOO (US$397,500) from employers for upgradng training services. Further VTC budget information appears in Annex 3. nit costs to the VTC for the apprenticeship program are approximately US$450. This roughly compares with an approximate unit cost of US$550 for the MHE three-year industrial vocational education program. The cost difference is essentially due to apprenticeship training expenses borne by the employer. The VTC apprenticeship program is thus a cost effective mode of delivery for the CGovernment. Average umit cost to the VTC is approximately US$100 for short courses. The Parliament is considering a government-proposed amendment to the Labor Law to provide for a 1Z payroll training levy, with provision for rebate to firms providing training. The levy on private sector establishments would be as much as JD 3.5 million (US$8.75 million), of which approximately 3D 2.0 million (US$5.0 million) would be paid by private sector establishments which engage 10 or more workers and are already covered by the social security system. Management and Administrative Training 1.14 As emphasized in the Bank's report reviewing Jordan's 1981-85 Development Plan, and again in the recent Bank report on Manpower Development in Jordan, the rapid economic expansion of the 1970's accentuated the shortage of appropriately trained managerial personnel in both the public and private sectors. The problem is expected to persist throughout the 1980's (Table 1.1). Three institutions carry complementary responsibility for enhancing the managerial and administrative skills of managers: the Jordan Institute of Public Administration (JIPA), the Jordan Institute of Management (JIM), and the Royal Scientific Society. Meeting the in-service management training needs of the private sector (including private- and government-mixed ownership enterprises) is basically the responsibility of JIM. Established in 1976 under auspices of the Industrial Development Bank, JIM provides training to top- and middle-level private and mixed sector managers in marketing, finance, production, accounting, project appraisal and other managemeat topics. The short course training format of JIM reaches over 300 participants per year, heavily drawn from industrial, banking, finance and trade enterprises. Over 1/ Locations, specializations and enrollments are given in Annex 2.  90Z of participants are university graduates. The Government has recently secured USAID support for strengthening JIM. The Royal Scientific Society has recently begun collaboration with the Bank's Economic Development Institute to offer regional seminars on economic management and development topics. In addition, USAID will support development of an MBA program at Jordan University, thereby expanding and strengthening pre-service management training. 1.15 The longest established management and administration training organization in the country is the Jordan Institute of Public -Administration (JIPA), an autonmous public entity established in 1968 to improve administration in both public and private institutions. JIPA is administered by a Board of Directors chaired by the President of the Civil Service Commission and composed of the Director of JIPA and representatives (one each) of the MOE, Budget Department of Ministry of Finance, University of Jordan, Yarmouk University, Union of Chambers of Commerce, Aman- Chamber of Industry, and General Union of Labor. The permanent full-time staff of the Institute includes 25 higher level professionals, of whom 10 are trainers. In addition to its rented-facility headquarters in Amman, JIPA operates a branch at Yarmouk University and plans to open a second branch at Mo'ta University. The 1985 budget of JIPA is about JD 200,000 (US$500,000), of which some JD 30,000 (US$75,000) comes from charges for services to the private sector. 1.16 Through an integrated program of applied research, consultation services and training, JIPA caters primarily, but not exclusively, to the eeds of the public sector which employs some 45% of the labor. JIPA's principal programs include: (a) Consulting assignments aimed at reviewing current operational problems in client agencies, which in turn provide feedback to the design of training programs. JIPA also designs and develops training materials. In 1984, JIPA produced guidebooks and manuals to supplement training on the following topics: (i) budgeting systems and procedures; (ii) functions and procedures for municipal council members; (iii) secretarial guidelines and procedures; (iv) management information systems; and (v) use of training aids and equipment. (b) Courses organized at the request of a particular agency and tailored to meet specific needs of that agency. In 1984, six such courses were organized (plans for 1985 are to accommodate 15 to 20 such requests). (c) Management seminars on practical and topical issues (3 to 15 days) at several levels at the rate of 10 to 15 per annum. (d) Short (3 to 5 months) management training courses for public and private employees at the rate of 2 courses per annum (25 participants in each). (e) Courses on specific topics (I to 4 weeks) such as finance, office management and accounting at the rate of 15 per annum (participants 20 to 30 per group).  -8- Health Services and Manpower 1.17 Jordan has a well-developed health care physical infrastructure. The MOB provides one-third of the country's hospital beds and operates a network of more than 200 primary health care and maternal rnd child health care centers. The Jordan University Hospital, the United Nations Relief and Works Administration (UNRWA) and the private sector also provide health care services. The MOH has decided to reorganize its approach to primary health care and referral care in order to make the health care system more dynamic and efficient. The new approach would be based on a comprehensive series of measures linking improvements in health services training, health education. mangement and health facilities. The Bank's primary health project (Loan No. 2531-JO), together with the paramedical training component of this project, are designed to help the MRH implement its revised strategy. 1.18 A prequisite for successful implementation of the revised health care strategy is provision of an adequate supply of health professionals and technicians, categories for which an overall shortage of some 3,900 has been projected for 1990 (Table 1.1). Within this occupational cluster, the adequacy of current and projected supply for specific levels and specializations of manpower is mixed. The supply of physicians is ample, as reflected in Jordan's physician to population ratio of 1:900 in 1982 compared with a ratio of about 1:2,000 for other countries in its income group. In contrast, there are shortages of nurses, midwives and health technicians in selected specializations. This is evidenced by the inadequate ratios of staff to population, the absolute shortages of nurses, midwives and technicians needed to staff the new service delivery model, and by the fact that of the 1,377 registered nurses in 1984, 368 (27X) were foreigners, mainly from the Philippines, Pakistan and Tndia. Simnlarly, of 330 registered midwives, 42 (131) were foreigners. This situation often impedes comrunication with patients and is a financial drain on the country.  -9 - 1.19 The MRK has recognized the severity of the current and potential shortage of relevant categories of health manpower and has drawn up a set of manpower targets to be attained by 1995 (sumfarized in Table 1.2) and a plan of action for meeting these targets. Table 1.2: SELECTED RHALTH OCCUPATIONS 1985 EMPLOYMENT AND- 1995 TARGETS Target Levels For Jordanians Personnel/Population Ratios Jordanian Employed 1995 Employment Category in 1985 1985 Target in 1995 Nurses 1,038 1:2,500 1:1,100 3,600 Midwives 288 1:9,030 1:4,000 1,000 Health Technicians 1,462 a/ a/ 5,500 al Targets were calculated separately for each specialization as shown in Annex 5. The plan calls for establishment of additional nurses and midwives training facilities in locations other than kmman to increase the supply of candidates and the likelihood of their wanting to work outside the capital. The ME has also adopted measures which should attract and retain more personnel, especially females. These measures included: reducing for females only the period of obligated employment to one year for each year of training (compared with two years obligated service for each year of training for males); provision of free board and lodging for femle students; payment of training stipends (JD 40 per month for nuirsing and midwifery, and JD 34 per mouth for other paramedical specializations); restructuring jobs to give greater responsibility to registered nurses and midwives; improved working conditions and career prospects; and a special monthly allowance after four years of service which is doubled after eight years. Training of Nurses, Midwives and Health Technicians 1.20 Nursing training programs which lead to a diploma are at the post-secondary level 1/ and last 39 months at three MRO colleges and the Royal Medical Services (Princess Muna) Nursing School. In addition, nursing schools 1/ Reference here is to training of "registered" or "staff" nurses. There are also 532 practical nurses employed in Jordan; these are trained in 11 schools attached to hospitals, each of which trains for its own needs. In addition, 1,997 nursing workers are employed, some of whom have been trained in the MOE secondary vocational program for girls.  - 10 - attached to the University of Jordan and Yarmouk University offer programs leading to B.Sc- degrees. The university programs are of 4 years' duration, including a number of credit hours of study not directly related to the nursing profession. Of the three NOH nursing colleges, one is well-established and has been functioning since 1953 in Aron; the other two, one each in Irbid and Zarka, were established in 1984 and operate in provisional buildings (para. 1.22). In addition, the MOH plans to coumence nursing training in Kerak in 1986. Nursing training output in 1985 is expected to be about 132 (MON-48; Jordan Uuiversity-54; and Princess Muna College--30). 1.21 Training programs for midwives were established by MOg in 1977 at its nursing college in Amman, and in 1984 in provisional buildings in Irbid and Zarka (para. 1.22). An additional program is to be started in Kerak in 1986. The training programs are of 27 months' duration, including a common first year with the nursing training program. Both the nursing and midwifery programs are composed of some 60Z clinical practice carried out mainly in hospitals and 40S related theory and English language courses. In addition, registered nurses may specialize as midwives by completing a one-year course. Midwifery program output in 1985 vill come only from the MRN college in Amman, and is expected to be 23. 1.22 Prior to 1984, health technicians were trained only in a special school of the MOH, housed in dfl.apidated buildings in Ammaa. In 1984, Nursing/Paramedical Integrated Training Institutes (NPITIs) were established and comwnced operation in provisional facilities in Irbid and Zarka. Provision for construction and equipping of a purpose-built facility and technical assistance (TA) for staff and curriculum development for the NPITI in Irbid is included under the Fourth Education Project now underway (construction is scheduled to start in 1985); comparable provision for the Zarka RPM is proposed in this project. The M0O plans to establish a third NPMTI in Kerak in 1986. Each of the institutes offers nursing, midwifery and health technician training programs. The health technician programs last three academic years for physiotherapists and two years for all other specializations. At present, the latter are: pharmacology, radiology, laboratory technology, anesthesiology, dental technology, sanitation, and health statistics/medical records. The output of the Amman program is currently about 115, and the NPITIs in Irbid and Larka will each be approximately 155. Bank Strategy and Lending for Education and Training 1.23 Two IDA credits and four Bank loans have supported development of Jordan's education/training system since 1972. 1/ Throughout the first five 1/ I: Credit 285-JO, approved in 1972 for US$5.4 million, completed in 1979, PPAR No. 2494, May 1979; II: Credit 534-JO, approved in 1975 for US$6.0 million, completed in 1982, PCR No. 4261, December 1982; III: Loan 1781-JO, approved in 1979 for US$19.0 million, completed in 1984, PCR under preparation; IV: Loan 2068-JO, approved in 1981 for US$25.0 million, under implementation; V: Toan 2246-JO, approved in 1983 for US$18.8 million, under implementation; and VI: Taan 2378-JO, approved in 1984 for US$40.0 million, under implementation.  - 11 - lending operations, the focus was on establishing or strengthening occupationally oriented elements of the formal education/training system operated by the MOE to enable the country to better meet its requirement for trained manpower. Accomplishments have included establishment of Jordan's first post-secondary polytechnic in Marka to train industrial technicians and technical teacher/trainers and a second in Tafilah to provide technicians for the mining and chemical sectors, and assistance in establishing the nucleus of a public community college system. The latter concept has proved so useful and popular that the system has grown to include 47 community colleges, of which -20 are operated by the private sector. Formal secondary vocational education has been diversified, expanded and strengthened through establishment of Jordan's first hotel training school, two new industrial vocational schools, extension of an agricultural secondary school, and 19 general vocational secondary schools (GVSSs) offering a mix of specializations in outlying areas. In addition, the projects have assisted the establishment of 10 comprehensive secondary schools, development of prevocational ..course offerings at the preparatory and secondary levels of education through training of prevocational course teachers at two teacher training institutes, and extensions for workshops and laboratories to 16 preparatory and secondary schools. Geographic and sex equity in access to education have been particular foci in the last two projects, and the MOE has been substantially strengthened through institution building TA in each of the projects. 1.24 Jordan's current and prospective labor market situation and the cogrxuence of the education/training system with requirements for further economic and social development in the country have been addressed to a considerable extent in recent Bank economic and sector works. 1/ Key findings and recomcendations in those reports emphasize the priority of strengthening and expanding manpower development programs which administratively fall outside the formal school system. Continued progress is required in such areas as improved school facilities, but general education has now been extended on a reasonably equitable basis to females as well as males, in rural as well- as urban areas, and the school system is comparatively well developed. It is appropriate now to turn attention to the development of more specialized training programs. Experience with Past Lending 1.2.5 The Project Performance Audit Report (No. 2494, Sec. M79-336) on the First Project noted the institutional impact of the project in many areas, including educational planning, and concluded that the project was justified and worthwhile. The recommendations of the report have been imple-mented, including improved procurement procedures, better coordination of TA, more effe.tive scheduling of required inputs and timing of implementation, and more extended training in management and administration. The Project Completion Report on the Second Project (PCR No. 4261) has concluded that the project was 1/ Principal reports include: Special Economic Report-Jordan, Review of the Five-Year Plan (1981-85), issued May 1983; Special Study on Vocational/Professional Education and Training, issued March 1984; Manpower Development in Jordan, issued June 1984; and Jordan Health Sector Review, issued May 1984.  - 12 - contributing to the expansion of vocational and technical education in Jordan at a time when demand for skilled labor was increasing. It has also noted that the physical components were well executed, the quality of construction and equipment was very good, and that all major TA components were fully implemented. However, delays and cost overruns were encountered during implementation. The completion report on the Third Project is under preparation. The completion mission has reported that the objectives of the project have been achieved and the project has substantially contributed to quality improvements in education, diversification and orientation towards economic needs. It has recommended that in designing TA under future projects, fellowships should be emphasized, and insofar as possible, consultants should have Arabic language capability and their close collaboration with counterparts should be ensured. It has also recommended with respect to physical implementation, that the project managers should ensure early legal clearance of sites and coordinate the construction plans with equipment and furniture layouts. These recommendations will. be taken into account in the implementation of the proposed project. Implementation of TA in the Fourth Project is proceeding smoothly, as is construction and equipment procurement for the schools under the Fourth and Fifth Projects. Prototype designs for new schools and aditions to existing schools have been adapted to sites and tendering is expected shortly for the Sixth Project schools.  - 13 - II. THE PROJECT Introduction 2.01 The project grew out of extensive dialogue with the Government on Jordan's priority training requirements, particularly the needs for skilled and semi-skilled workers as trained in the VTC programs, and for management and administration training. At a somewhat later stage, the Government requested that the project include provision for expansion of para- professional health manpower training capacity already assisted under the Fourth Education Project. The project was prepared by the Goverment following a Bank project identification mission in July 1984 and a subsequent Rank preparation assistance mission in September 1984. The project was appraised by Messrs. S. Syrimis (educator, mission leader), 0. de Messieres (architect) and P. Mersier (technical educator) in January/February 1985. Proiect Obiectives 2.02 The project would assist the Government in implementing priority manpower development programs which would: (a) increase the annual supply of VTC trained skilled and semi-skilled workers by about 1,300, accounting for nearly 20X of the incremental supply of skilled workers by 1989; and enable the VTC's Occupational Safety and Health Institute to reach some 500 managers, safety officers and trainers through advisory services to enterprises and seminars, with the purpose of increasing productivity of the workforce by reducing the incidence of occupational accidents and worker injuries; (b) improve the quality and coverage of management and administratioa training offered by the JIPA, reaching directly some 1,000 participants from the public and private sectors per year in courses and seminars of varying duration, plus contributing to better organizational procedures and managementladministration practices through JIPA's .wprogram of applied research and consultation; and (c) enable the MOK to increase the annual supply of nurses (80), midwives (25) and health technicians. (155), thereby alleviating current shortages, allowing eventually for replaceicat of ncc-Jcakdnian personnel, and improving the- quality of health ser7icas. Project Composition 2.03 To attain the objectives stated above, the project would include three components, to be implemented by the VTC, the JIPA, and the MOH. The project would provide civil works, furniture, equipment and TA as shown below.  - 14 - (a) The Vocational Training Corporation: a/ Annual Enrollment Annual Output Training Short Short Places Apprent. Courses Apprent. Courses (lst 2 yrs) Skilled and Semi-CZilled Worker Training Civil Works, furniture and equipment for: 4 (new) Trade Training Centers 536 650 740 310 650 (TTCs) 1 extension of existing TTC 100 190 100 90 90 Civil Works, furniture, equipment and TA for: 1 extension of existing TTC 132 190 100 90 90 Occupational Safety and Health Institute Civil Works, furniture euipment and TA for: 120 500 500 OSHI a/ Details on VTC training places, enrollments and outputs are provided in Annex 6. (b) The Jordan Institute of Public Administration (JIPA): Annual Enrollment Annual Output Equipment and TA 550 participant 1,000 participants. for: JIPA months in short courses and seminars.  - 15 - (c) The Ministry of Health (MOR): Enrollment Annual Output Civil works, furniture, equipment and TA for: Nursing/Paramedical Integrated Training Institute (NPITI) 700 260 Proiect Output Contribution to Neeting Manpower Requirements 2.04 The output of the project institutions would make significant qualitative and quantitative contributions to meeting Jordan's manpower requirements. The skilled and semi-skilled worker training program of the VTC component and the MOR health manpower training component lend themselves to quantitative measurement as indicated below. (a) VTC: Skilled and Semi-Skilled Worker Training a/ Estimated Output of Trained Workers by Source and Demand. 1990 Annual Supply Annual MOE Demand VTC (of which Project Institutions) Voc. Ed. Total (1990) 4,200 (1,300) 2,900 7,100 13,300 a/ Further details on skilled and semi-skilled manpower demand and supply estimates are in Annex 7.  - 16 - Cb) MH: NursingfParamedical Health Training. -a Training programs are geared to gradually meet targets for the various specializations by 1995. Key indicators for 1995 are as follows: Estimated Annual Output of Nurses and Midwives and Status Compared to Targets, 1995 Total Annual Output MRO Personnel to (, which Project Target Population Institutions) Ratio Ratio Achieved Nurses 440 (80) 1:1,000 1:1,070 M4idwives 95 (25) 1:4,000 1:4,270 a/ Further details on paramedical output and targets are provided in Annex 5. For health technicians, different targets prevail for each of eight specializations. Overall, the 1995 supply/demand relationship is estimated to be: Estimated Annual Output of Realth Technic'an and Stock Compared to Tar