Jordan - Manpower Development Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-4166-JO REPORT AND RECODMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCIION AND DEVELOPMENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN IN AN AMOUNT EQUIVALENT TO USt10.2 MILLION TO THE HASHEEMTE KINGDOM OF JORDAN FOR A MANPOWER DEVELOPMENT PROJECT * October 10, 1985 This document hass a resicted distibouton and way be wed by recipients only in the performance of their oLch daie Its owlmti; may oa dherwise be disoseRd without Wedd Bank auhorization.  HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Calendar 1984 July 1985 Currency Unit = Jordan Dinar (JD) US$1.00 = JD .384 JD .392 JDl.OO -- US$2.60 US$2.55 Exchange rate used in the Appraisal Report JDI = US$2.50 GOVERNMENT OF JORDAN FISCAL YEAR January 1 to December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS GVSS - General Vocational Secondary School ICB - International Competitive Bidding JIPA - Jordan Institute of Public Administration LCB - Local Competitive Bidding NOE - Ministry of Education MOH - Ministry of Health MOL - Ministry of Labor NPITI - Nursing/Paramedical Integrated Training Institute OSHI - Occupational Safety and Health Institute PIU - Project Implementation Unit PMU - Project Management Unit TA - Technical Assistance TTC - Trade Training Center VTC - Vocational Training Corporation  FOR OMCIAL USE ONLY HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN MANPOWER DEVELOPMENT PROJECT LOAN AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. Beneficiaries: The Vocational Training Corporation (VTC), the Ministry of Health (MOH) and the Jordan Institute of Public Administration (JIPA). Amount: US$10.2 million equivalent. Terms: 15 years, including three years of grace, at the standard variable interest rate. Project Description: The project would help alleviate current and projected shortages of skilled and semi-skilled workers in the industrial and health sectors as well as improve training programs for public and private sector managers. The project includes: (i) constructing, equipping and furnishing 4 trade training centers, extensions to 2 existing trade training centers, a new occupational safety and health institute, and a nursing/paramedical integrated training institute; (ii) equipping a management training institute; (iii) providing fellowships and expert-services for introducing new disciplines, developing curriculum, establishing training organization techniques as welL as enhancing management training programs. The project would strenghten Jordan's manpower development system. It is expected to benefit about 2,000 trainees per year, mostly from urban and rural low-income groups, by enhancing their opportunity for employment. The project does not involve any special risks. I This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  - ii - Estimated Cost: 1/ Local Foreign Total ----(US$ million) - Training skilled workers (VTC) 2.6 4.9 7.5 Training nurses, midwives and paramedics (MOH) 2.0 3.2 5.2 Training public and private sector managers (JIPA) 0.1 0.6 0.7 Base cost 4.7 8.7 13.4 Physical contingencies 0.5 0.9 1.4 Price increases 1.1 2.4 3.5 TOTAL COST 6 12.0 1iLl Financing Plan: Proposed World Bank Loan - 10.2 10.2 Government contribution 6.3 1.8 8.1 TOTAL 6_1_ IZ. 1lB. Estimated Disbursements: FY 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 (US$ million) Annual 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.4 2.9 1.8 1.1 0.5 Cumulative 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.9 6.8 8.6 9.7 10.2 Staff Appraisal Report: No.5704-JO, dated September 24, 1985. Map Number: IBRD 18945. 1/ Does not include direct taxes and duties from which the project is exempt.  INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE IBRD TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE HASHEMITE KINGDOM OF JORDAN FOR A MANPOWER DEVELOPMENT PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed Bank loan to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan of US$10.2 million equivalent to help finance a Manpower Development Project. The loan would be for 15 years, including three years of grace, at the standard variable interest rate. PART I - THE ECONOMY " 2. A report entitled "Jordan Review of the Five-Year Plan" (No. 4129-JO, dated May 1983) was distributed to the Executive Directors in June 1983. An economic mission visited the country in May/June 1983; its findings have been included in the present text. 2/ Country data sheets are attached as Annex 1. Recent Economic Developments 3. Conscious of the country's limited natural resources, its relatively narrow productive base and the sensitiveness of the economy to changes in its oil-rich regional environment, the Government has pursued liberal, outward-looking policies in trade, labor migration and foreign exchange. This has enabled Jordan to alleviate the effects of a very high natural population growth rate (3.4 percent) through massive emigration stimulated by high salaries in the neighboring countries and through rapid expansion of domestic production fueled by an exceptionally high investment rate and rapidly growing export demand. At present, a large part of Jordan's total workforce is employed abroad. In addition to sizable workers' remittances, Jordan has benefited from large inflows of grant aid from neighboring countries as well as from a rapid increase in regional demand for its exports. During the period 1976-82, the yearly inflow of workers' remittances and grants reached on average close to two-thirds of Jordan's GDP. The abundant supply of these resources and a favorable entrepreneurial climate enabled Jordan to maintain both very high consumption and investment rates. 4. As a result, the Jordanian economy expanded rapidly with an annual average GDP growth rate of over 10 percent in real terms during the 1976-82 period; almost full employment was reached. The overall balance of payments remained strong despite a large chronic deficit in merchandise trade. 1/ This section is substantially the same as Part I of the President's Report for the Second Urban Development Project (P-4133-JO), dated July 29, 1985. 2/ References in the text which follows are to the East Bank of Jordan.  729S - 2 - Although exports of goods and non-factor services (primarily agricultural products, manufactured goods, tourism and exports of the new commodities, fertilizers and potash) grew at a rapid rate of about 16 percent in real terms during 1976-82, its small base in relation to imports led to a continuous deterioration of the resource gap. These trade deficits, however, were almost fully covered by factor income and transfers from abroad. Government- guaranteed external borrowing remained therefore within reasonable limits and borrowing on commercial terms was reduced to a modest level (para. 14). 5. Beginning in 1982, however, the economic slowdown in the neighboring countries has affected the Jordanian economy in many ways, leading to a slowdown of domestic economic activity and a reduction in the inflow of external transfers. The overall economic growth rate slowed to about 4.2 percent (in real terms) in 1983, still a satisfactory performance considering the unfavGrable economic environment. Economic activity in 1984 furthSr slowed to an estimated growth rate of about 3 percent, and is expected to remain at that level throughout 1985. The slowdown in economic activity was due to a decrease in the growth of foreign aid by another 30 percent between 1983 and 1985 and to slower growth in worker remittances and in exports of manufactured goods and services to neighboring countries. The effect of these factors was exacerbated by a marked decline in export prices of raw and processed minerals. Imports also declined, in line with the sizable reduction in public and private investments. As a result, the current account deficit for 1983 showed only a slight increase to $390 million. It was mainly covered by the proceeds of a $225 million Eurodollar loan contracted in earLy 1983. Jordan also drew on its reserves, which remained, however, equal to three months of imports. The decline in merchandise imports, continuing in 1984, combined with an increase in exports of goods to contribute to an improvement ir the balance of trade deficit, from nearly $2.4 billion in 1983 to about $2.0 billion in 1984. A slight reduction in official transfers was more than offset by the decline in imports, and the current account deficit improved to $229.3 million. Preliminary estimates for 1985 show imports increasing, but at a slower rate than exports, leading to a further reduction in the current account deficit to about $190 million. 6. With the decline in Government revenues from grants, public investment has been reduced, and the Government has further intensified its domestic resource mobilization efforts through cuts in subsidies and improved collection of direct and indirect taxes (about 90 percent of recurrent expenditures is covered by domestic revenues). 7. The main concerns of monetary policy have been mobilizing savings and controlling domestic liquidity. Private savings have improved, but public savings have continued to be negative because of the high level of defense expenditures. To promote domestic savings, greater discretion is being allowed the Central Bank in adjusting interest rates and banking commissions. As a result of increases in deposit rates in 1983, savings deposits rose faster than the money supply. A parallel situation materialized in 1984 though both savings deposits and the money supply grew at slower rates in that year. Together with a marked decline in inflation to 3.9 percent in 1984, these increases have resulted in interest rates becoming substantially positive again in real terms.  7 29S -3- Medium-Term Prospects 8. Given the changed situation and outlook in the neighboring oil producing countries, continuing GDP growth in the 9-11 percent range as projected by the 1981-85 Plan would no longer appear feasible in the medium term; a rate in the neighborhood of 5 percent per annum in real terms appears more likely during the next Plan (1986-90). This projection assumes a reduction in the exceptionally high level of investments achieved during the early 1980s, which was mainly due to implementation of a number of major new projects such as potash, fertilizer and a refinery, now at initial stages of production. While the new, major natural resource-based industries have provided some new employment opportunities in the short term, the economic slowdown is likely to change the manpower situation in Jordan from one of selective shortages to one of general excess supply requiring finding employment for a rapidly increasing domestic workforce (para. 12). 9. The industrial sector (including mining, manufacturing and construction) is expected to lead the growth of GDP and exports, with the new industries contributing more than one third towards incremental GDP during 1986-90. Together with an expansion of phosphate mining and cement production, total industrial output would grow at an annual rate of about 7.5 percent per annum for the period 1986-90. Since the rapid expansion of infrastructure and private housing during the boom years of the 1970s and early 1980s has slowed down substantially, the construction industry is likely to grow at a substantially lower rate (3 percent) during 1986-90. Thus, industrial growth during the next plan period will have to rely increasingly on development of more small and medium-scale higher technology manufacturing, largely for exports. The projected 7.5 percent for industrial growth assumes that adjustment of the industrial sector in this direction will be achieved, inter alia through changes in protection policies and improvements in export incentives. 10. Curtailment in growth of public expenditures and the slowdown in domestic and foreign demand for banking and transportation services are expected to slow down growth of services to an average annual rate of a little over 3 percent per annum for 1986-90. In particular, it is expected that the transportation sector and the hotel industry, which at present are facing large surpLus capacity, will undergo a period of consolidation. In the trade sector, efficiency gains from modernization would likely be offset by increased pressure from higher unemployment to expand the less efficient informal sector of trade. In contrast to the expected slow growth performance of traditional private services, the prospects are Eavorable to exploit Jordan's potential in skilled labor and meet the demand for special services in areas such as consulting, contracting, and maintenance. Agriculture is projected to continue to grow by about 5 percent per annum. Overall, the sectoral growth rates would enable Jordan to maintain a GDP growth rate of about 5 percent per annum throughout the 1980s. 11. On the external balance side, the projections assume that exports of goods and non-factor services would grow by an average rate of about 8 percent per annum in real terms for 1985-90. Exports from the output of previous and  729S -4- new industrial, natural resource-based projects to the world market would make the largest contribution to this growth performance. The export projections for the later 1980s assume that adequate measures are taken to develop Jordan's manufacturing exports. The external balance projections assume that imports would increase less rapidly because of the slow overall economic growth rate and the expected sizable reduction in the level of investments after completion of the major industrial projects. Even though merchandise exports are projected to approach a high rate of increase while imports would grow at a significantly lower rate, the trade deficit could remain large at about $1.9 billion in 1985. In relation to GDP, however, the resource gap is expected to show a further decline from about 51 percent in 1984 to about 38 percent in 1987. Unlike the past, net workers' remittances and foreign grants, which are likely to decline, may not be sufficient to meet the growing trade deficit. Jordan therefore would have to rely more on external borrowing (para. 15). In order to maintain its prudent build-up of exterual debt, Jordan will need to combine external borrowing with increased efforts to mobilize domestic resources, particularly in the public sector. Social Issues 12. Due to the substantial migration of Jordanian workers to neighboring countries and the rapid economic growth, the labor market situation has been characterized until recently by selective manpower shortages. However, according to recent manpower projections, supply of labor in Jordan in the - medium term is likely to show selective surpluses, particularly throughout certain categories of skilled professionals. In 1983, it is estimated that 312,000 Jordanians were working abroad compared to a total domestic employment of about 570,000. Domestic employment includes at present a relatively large number of foreigr. workers currently estimated at about 130,000, half of whom are unskilled. A comprehensive manpower and training plan as well as improvements in vocational training are needed to help ensure that the education and training system is geared to meet both domestic and external demands for manpower. 13. The Government has emphasized social issues in the current Five-Year Plan (1981-85). Although the social indicators are relatively favorable in most sectors, social services are unevenly distributed across income groups and between urban and rural areas. Housing remains a problem despite the boom in 1978-80, mainly because housing costs have far exceeded the means of the lower income groups. External Assistance 14. With the large, chronic trade deficit offset by inflows of remittances and foreign transfers, the current account of the balance of payments was on average in equilibrium in the period 1975-81. Net workers' remittances increased from about $160 million in 1975 to about $900 million in 1983 and 1984. Following the Baghdad Arab Summit Conference in November 1978, which pledged assistance of about $1.2 billion per vear over a 10-year period, net foreign grant aid rose from $400-500 million in 1977-78 to about $1.3 billion in 1980 and 1981; it declined to some $0.8 billion in 1983 and to $0.7 billion in 1984. In 1985 it is expected to fall to $0.6 billion. This  729S -5- decline was the main reason for the current account deficits of $390 million in 1983, and $230 million in 1984, both of which were financed largely by external borrowing and partly by drawing on reserves. The external public debt outstanding and disbursed reached $2.2 billion at the end of 1984 (about 52 percent of GNP). External debt service payments amounted to $319 million in 1984 or 9.6 percent of total exports of goods and services. 15. Jordan's impressive growth, pragmatic economic and social policies and efficient economic management have helped to attract large amounts of foreign assistance. The grant component of this foreign assistance is projected to decline gradually in real terms over the next few years. The projections on that basis indicate a need for average gross external borrowing of about $0.9 billion over the 1985-1990 period, mostly in later years. While bilateral and multilateral sources can be expected to provide the bulk of external resources, Jordan is likely to resort increasingly to the financial markets, and this would result in a hardening of loan terms. On these assumptions, debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services is projected to reach 10.0 percent by 1990. Given this outlook and the country's record of prudent management, Jordan remains creditworthy for Bank lending. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS I' 16. Jordan has received 19 Bank loans totalling $467.3 million and 15 IDA credits totalling $86.1 million (net of cancellations), of which all the credits and two loans have been fully disbursed. Project implementation and disbursement performance have been generally satisfactory. In recent years, disbursements have amounted to about 50-60 percent of appraisal estimates. IFC has made investments in Jordan with total commitments of $94.8 million. Annex II contains a summary statement of Bank loans, IDA credits and IFC investments as of September 30, 1985. 17. Under its last two development plans, Jordan has aimed at restructuring its economy to achieve a wider manufacturing base, to reduce its dependence on external grants, and to spread the benefits of development among different regions. The Bank's strategy has been tailored to support those objectives and in particular is designed to help the Government: (a) to diversify the country's economic base and promote exports; (b) to alleviate manpower and infrastructure constraints in the productive sectors; and (c) to encourage more balanced growth and distribution of social services among regions and income groups, with particular emphasis on low-income groups. 18. Within this broad framework, past lending has emphasized support for capital infrastructure and manpower development. Since 1962, Bank Group lending has focussed on water supply and sewerage, power and energy development, education and urban and municipal development. The Bank Group has also lent for irrigation, agricultural and industrial credit, transportation, and tourism, and recently became involved in the health sector with a loan for a Primary Health Care Project. In addition, the Bank Group 1/ This section is substantially the same as the coIresponding part of the President's Report for the CVDB II Project (P-4133-JO), dated July 29, 1985.  729S - 6 - has financed technical assistance for developing and implementing a plan for expanding phosphate rock mining. An engineering credit was made in FY75 to help prepare a large project for potash production from the Dead Sea via solar evaporation, for which a loan was approved in September 1978. These projects have been designed with an emphasis on institution building to assist the agencies involved to develop their capabilities to plan, prepare, and implement projects on their own. In addition to the proposed manpower development project, future lending would include projects for mining, transportation, water supply and sewerage, urban development, power and energy development, and industry. IFC has provided loans and equity contributions for a major fertilizer project and for projects in the construction materials subsector. It has also assisted the capital market and leasing ventures. 19. The Bank has recently helped the Government to review the energy, water supply, health, urban and education/training sectors, and the Bank's economic and sector work will continue to focus on strengthening the macroeconomic and sector base for our lending program. The Bank's economic work program aims to deepen and broaden the well-established policy dialogue with the Government in priority areas: (i) development planning, with a focus on resource mobiLization and allocation; (ii) industrial and trade policies, including technology transfer and export strategy/promotion and industrial subsector studies; (iii) regionial development and equity and efficiency of government revenues and social expenditures; and (iv) manpower development. These subjects are crucial because the substantially tighter balance of payments situation expected for the rest of the decade calls for increased efforts to step up domestic resource mobilization, to stimulate manufactured exports and to optimize resource allocation, while making particular efforts to reduce rural and urban poverty. 20. At the end of 1983, the actual Bank Group share in Jordan's total external public debt was estimated at 12 percent, and its share in debt service was 5 percent. In 1985, the Bank Group's shares in debt outstanding and in debt service are expected to be about 13 and 8.5 percent respectively. PART III - THE EDUCATION AND TRAINING SECTOR Background 21. Population and labor force in Jordan are growing at a rapid rate. The total labor force has increased at about 3.5 percent per v-c during the 1960s and early 1970s, and about 6 percent per year since 19i5. This rapid growth results partly from the continuing movement of working-age population from the West Bank to the East Bank. The bulk of it, however, arises from the high rate of natural population increase in the East Bank. Rapid growth of population, particularly in the youngest age groups (more than half of the population is less than 15 years old) has strained and will continue to strain the Government's capacity to provide education and training to the expanding school-age population, and job opportunity to those entering the labor force. 22. The rapid labor-force growth at home and the sharply reduced opportunities for employment abroad suggest that by the end of this decade the manpower situation in Jordan will shift from one of shortages in many skills  729S -7- to one of shortages in selected skills and large surpluses in white collar workers. The most pronounced shortages would be in skilled and semi-skilled manual workers and the largest surpluses would be in office workers and some professional categories (certain types of scientists, teachers and others with liberal arts background). Current shortages in managerial skills are expected to persist throughout the decade. Substantial pressure on wages, exercised by increasing excess labor, is likeLv to prompt more labor intensive production patterns and higher labor demand. Nevertheless, the projected magnitude of the surpluses is such that early policy and institutional changes are needed over time to alleviate imbalances. The Bank has assisted the Government with a manpower subsector analysis which identifies economy-wide measures to deal with emerging manpower problems. A comprehensive policy approach has emerged which would involve measures to encourage labor intensive industries, to coordinate migration, to improve manpower data compilation and analysis, to better align the education and training system with the labor market requirements and to expand management and vocational training. The Bank has also assisted the Government with a survey of the management and vocational training institutions, which has recommended the following measures: (i) establishing . labor market information system; (ii) diversifying vocational training disciplines, expanding and improving vocational training; (iii) expanding and improving short duration "limited skill" vocational training by the Vocational Training Corporation (VTC); and (iv) strengthening the Occupational Safety and Health Institute (OSHI) and the Jordan Institute of Publ>- Administration (JIPA). The proposed project was designed in light of these recommendations. Recent Progress in Education and Training 23. In view of Jordan's scarce mineral, land and water resources, successive Governments have regarded the country's skilled labor force as its major productive asset. Accordingly, Jordan's education and training sector has made impressive strides over the last ten years. The Government has placed particular emphasis on educational development as witnessed by the striking progress achieved since 1975. Enrollments have increased by some 30 percent at the primary level, 80 percent at the preparatory level and well over 100 percent at the secondary level with female participation reaching 48 percent, 46 percent and 47 percent of total, respectively. The Government has also continued its efforts to diversify education and to link it with developmental needs through the establishment of general vocational secondary schools (GVSS) and the development of prevocational instruction courses for students pursuing general studies at preparatory and secondary Levels. 24. Progress on vocational training, outside the Ministry of Education formal school system, has also been impressire. This type of training is provided mainly by VTC, a corporation established in 1976. Enrollments in VTC's apprenticeship program increased from some 1,600 in 1981/82 to 5,600 in 1984 while those in short, limited-skill courses remained practically constant (some 850 per annum) during the same period. In accordance with availability of VTC facilities and staff as well as employer needs, enrollments in upgrading courses fluctuated from some 350 in 1980 to around 70 in 1982, and 200 in 1984. The output of the longer apprenticeship courses has followed the enrollment trend reaching some 1,600 in 1984 as against 500 in 1980. Output  729S - 8 - of the other courses is 85 - 90 percent of the initial enrollments. In addition to these programs, there is a vigorous effort in job-oriented training provided by the private sector. There are, for example, 20 private community colleges that offer post-secondary courses, principally in commercial specializations. Despite this impressive effort there remain some key problems in the education and training sector. Most pressing among them are: (i) the need for continuing qualitative improvements; (ii) the large shortage in adequate physical facilities; and (iii) the need for a closer alignment of the education and training system with the job market. The Government is carrying out projects, including a labor market information system, that addresses these problems. Vocational Training by VTC 25. VTC is the most important vocational training source in Jordan, and it will continue to play a key role in remedying the labor market imbalances. It offers (a) three-year apprenticeship programs after nine years of basic education leading to a skilled worker certificate. On average, the first and second-year curriculum includes 6 weekly hours of general subjects (Arabic, English, religion and science), 36 hours of practical work (50 percent in the center and 50 percent in industry) and 5 hours' related theory; the program starts with three months of multi-discipline training and one month of training in the selected specialization; (b) short (three to six months) training courses in a variety of topics at the "limited skill" worker level; (c) upgrading courses; and (d) training (60 hours) and upgrading (20-30 hours) courses for instructors and supervisors in teac;iring methods and techniques. VTC provides this training in 8 trade training centers (TTC) (a ninth one is now under construction in the North Jordan Valley), 10 centers attached to large industries and a number of MOE facilities (technical schools and training centers) in the afternoons. Most of the VTC activities are in the industrial sector (disciplines such as mechanical skills, welding, casting, heating, refrigeration and instrumentation) with male trainees. Only one center (Marka) offers secretarial and dressmaking courses to female trainees. Five additional training facilities for females are about to begin operations. A hotel and catering course is offered in the Wadi Seir Center and an agricultural program has been introduced this year in the Middle Ghor center. The VTC is also responsible for increasing workforce productivity by lowering the incidence of occupational accidents and injuries. VTC's Occupational Safety and Health Institute offers training seminars and short courses for managers, safety officers and trainers; it also provides consulting services to enterprises. Health Technician Training 26. Health sector problems are analyzed in the report entitled "World Bank Health Sector Review" (Report No. 4748-JO). Both the Bank's manpower review and the health sector review have indicated that there is an ample supply of physicians in Jordan but a shortage of female nurses and midwives, and health technicians. In addition, more than one-third of the current registered nurses are foreigners, whose effectiveness is limited by language difficulties. Hence, there is an urgent need to train additional personnel for these occupations. The MOIH has drawn up a set of manpower targets up to 1995 (3,600 nurses, 1,000 midwives. and 5.500 health technicians) and a plan of actioti for meeting these targets. This plan of action includes the  729S - 9 - expansion of the training system. The present training facilities for nurses include two nursing schools attached to universities; the Royal Medical Services (Princess Muna) Nursing School; and three nursing colleges under the Ministry of Health (MOH). Practical nurses are trained in 11 facilities attached to hospitals. Midwives are trained only in the MOH's nursing colleges. Paramedical technicians are trained in special schools in Amman (housed in inadequate buildings) and in Irbid (housed in provisional, rented buildings). Of the three MOH nursing colleges, one is well-established and has been functioning since 1953 in Amman while the other two, one each in Irbid and Zarka, were established in 1984 and have been operating in provisional buildings. A Nursing/Paramedical Integrated Training Institute (NPITI) in Irbid is included in the Fourth Education Project now underway and a second one in Zarka is included in the proposed project in response to the health sector review recommendations. The two NPITIs would absorb the enrollments of the existing institutions. 27. The nursing training programs are at the post-secondary level and consist of 4 academic years at the universities (leading to a bachelor degree) and 39 months at the MOH colleges (leading to a diploma). The midwifery programs are for 27 months. A post-nursing course (1 year) in midwifery allows registered nurses to specialize also as midwives. A committee, composed of the principals of the nursing institutions, coordinates curriculum development. The health technicians (paramedical) programs are for 3 academic years for physiotherapists and 2 years for all other specializations (such as laboratory technology, radiology and dental technology). At present, combined enrollments in nursing and midwifery courses are about 900 and the output about 130 and 25, respectively. The enrollments in health technician courses are about 350 and the output about 150. Public Administration and Management Training 28. Manpower projections by the Ministry of Planning confirmed by the Bank's manpower sector review indicate that the present deficit in the availability of trained and experienced managers is expected to prevail throughout the decade. As in the past, the shortages are likely to affect the public sector more than the private sector, because of the less flexible compensation mechanisms of the former. Improvement and expansion of this type of training is urgently needed in order to meet the needs of a growing economy that is also becoming more sophisticated. Training for administration and management is carried out by the Jordan Institute of Public Administration (JIPA), the Jordan Institute of Management (JIM) and the universities. A number of other institutions such as the Royal Scientific Society and the Institute of Banking Studies provide special-purpose training courses. JIPA courses of 1-9 week duration are intended principally for public sector personnel but courses are also attended by private sector employees. JIM offers in-service courses for the middle management of the private manufacturing enterprises; the courses are also open to participants from the mixed sector enterprises. Bank's Role in Education and Training 29. The Bank has extended two credits ($5.4 million in 1972 and $6 million in 1975) and four loans ($19 million in 1979, $25 million in 1981,  729S - 10 - $18.8 million in 1983 and $40 million in 1984) for education projects. The first three projects are completed. The implementation of the remaining projects is satisfactory. These projects were designed to assist Jordan in improving the quality of education, providing basic education to all relevant age groups, establishing appropriate manpower training and increasing vocational training opportunities for men and women. Institution building has been a prominent feature of the Bank's operations. The planning and project implementation capabilities of the MOE were vastly expanded, supported in part by technicai assistance components of Bank-Group projects, and the Ministry is now able to manage all of its school construction programs with minimum external assistance- The above projects have also assisted the establishment and refinement of the comprehensive secondary school curriculum, and the expansion and alignment of technical/vocational programs with the labor market. These projects have introduced modern evaluation systems for the various schools and institutions. The third project was particularly useful in improving the planning and management capability of the MOE by providing a research and evaluation mechanism and a computerized management information system to be used as tools for planning and modern management. Experience With Past Lending 30. The Project Performance Audit Report (No. 2494, Sec. M79-336) on the first education project noted the institutional impact of the project in many areas, including educational planning, and concluded that the project was justified and worthwhile. The recommendations of the report have been implemented, including improved procurement procedures, better coordination of technical assistance, more effective scheduling of required inputs and timing of implementation, and more extended training in management and adminis- tration. The Project Completion Report on the second education project (PCR No. 4261) has concluded that the project was contributing to the expansion of vocational and technical education in Jordan at a time when demand for skilled labor was increasing. It has also noted that the physical components were well executed, the quality of construction and equipment was very good, and that all major technical assistance components were fully implemented. The completion report on the third education project is under preparation. The completion mission has reported that the objectives of the project have been achieved and the project has substantially contributed to quality improveme.ats in education, diversification and orientation towards economic needs. It has recommended that in designing technical assistance under future projects, fellowships should be emphasized, and insofar as possible, consultants should have Arabic language capability and their close collaboration with counterparts should be ensured. It has also recommended with respect to physical implementation, that the project managers should ensure early legal clearance of sites and coordinate the construction plans with equipment and furniture layouts. These recommendations have been taken into account in the design of the proposed project. PART 'V - THE PROJECT 31. The project was identified in July 1984 as a follow-up to the Bank's reviews of the manpower sector, the vocational training system and the health sector. It was preappraised in September 1984 and appraised in January/ February 1985. At the Government's request negotiations were carried out  729S - 11 - through correspondence during September 1985. A Staff Appraisal Report (No. 5704-JO), dated September 24, 1985, is being distributed separately. The main features of the proposed loan and project are outlined in the Loan and Project Summary and in Annex III. A map of the project area is attached. Project Objectives and Description 32. The project would assist the Government in alleviating the skilled and semi-skilled manpower shortages in the industrial and health sectors, and improving management training at all levels. It includes: (i) constructing, equipping and furnishing four Trade Training Centers (TTC), extensions to 2 such centers, an Occupational Safety and Health Institute (OSHI) and a Nursing/Paramedical Integrated Training Institute (NPITI); (ii) equipping the Jordan Institute of Public Administration (JIPA); (iii) providing expert-services and fellowships to enable VTC to introduce new training disciplines, MOH to develop curriculum and training organization techniques, and JIPA to enhance its management training programs. Trade Training Centers (TTC) 33. The proposed TTC (four new and two extensions) would help expand the training and upgrading of skilled and semi-skilled labor. VTC would extend the training capacity in existing trades and introduce new specializations (instrumentation, control systems, office machine maintenance, and training of operators of earth moving and other heavy equipment). Five of the project TTC would offer apprenticeship training programs three years after completing grade 9, short training (3-6 months) and upgrading courses as described in para. 25. The sixth TTC would offer only short courses for operators of earth moving and other heavy equipment and for commercial-vehicle drivers. The locations of project institutions were selected carefully to ensure distribution of the training capacity throughout the country (see map). The output of the project TTC during the 1986-90 period would be in the order of 3,400 industrial workers or some 20 percent of the total VTC output. This, together with the projected output of the -ocational education schools of the MOE would contribute to meeting the anticipated blue collar worker shortages. VTC operates a flexible training system that has direct links with industry. Hence, it would not have difficulty in adjusting to future labor market developments. 34. A total of 11 general subject teachers and 117 technical teachers and instructors would be required to operate the project institutions. General subject teachers are readily available. The technical teachers and instructors would be recruited from the technical teacher training program at the Amman Polytechnic and the pool of experienced craftsmen. A 60-hour methodology program in VTC's Wadi Seir instructor training center would enhance the teaching abilities of the new recruits. About 9 man-months of expert services and 6 man-months of fellowships would be needed to help VTC introduce the new specializations in instrumentation, control systems and office machine repairs. 35. VTC also operates the Occupational Safety and Health Institute (OSHI). The project would include a building, furniture and equipment for the OSHI at Marka. OSHI was created in 1982 and started functioning in 1983 on the premises of the Wadi Seir training center with the purpose of contributing  729S - 12 - to reducing occupational accidents in industry through advice to enterprises, seminars and training of safety officers and trainers (about 100 people have been trained so far and advice has been given to 125 enterprises). The Government attaches high importance to the objectives of this component, which forms an integral part of VTC's development program. Vocational Training Corporation (VTC) 36. VTC would implement the TTC and OSHI components. VTC is governed by a 12-member Board of Directors, 6 of which represent the private sector. The Minister of Labor is the ex-officio chairman of the Board. Day-to-day operations are managed by a Director-General with the assistance of an administrative and financial manager, and a technical manager. VTC employs 394 staff, 61 of whom are in administration, 258 in full-time teaching and supervisory posts (7 training coordinators, 25 training officers, 186 instructors and 40 teachers) and 75 are supporting staff. In addition, it makes use of part-time teachers and instructors mainly borrowed from industry. In 1984, VTC operated with a budget of about 2.5 million Jordanian Dinars. Recurrent costs represented about forty percent of total expenditure- About half of VTC's resources came from Government grants, about one-third from loans, and the rest from foreign aid and its own revenues. On the Government's recommendation, the Parliament is considering a draft law establishing a training levy (1 percent of payroll) which would augment VTC's budget resources. VTC's objectives as stated in its 1986-90 program are: (a) to t-ain, during the Plan period, some 20,000 skilled and semi-skilled workers chrough its apprenticeship, short training and upgrading courses to meet anticipated manpower demands; (b) to extend vocational training programs to include new specializations and cover additional geographic areas; and (c) to intensify its occupational safety and health program. In addition to quantitative targets, the VTC envisages during the above period: (a) to improve the quality of training through upgrading its technical and managerial staff and developing teaching aids and materials; (b) to extend the trade standardization process to include new trades (now only the auto-mechanics trade is covered); and Cc) to promote integration of the education and training systems. Nursing/Paramedical Integrated Training Institute (NPITI) 37. To alleviate the shortage of nurses, midwives and health technicians, to replace foreign workers in these areas and to improve the quality of health services, the project would construct, furnish, and equip a NPITI in Zarka of the same structure and capacity as the one being built in Irbid under the Fourth Education Project. Total enrollments in the new NPITI would be 700 (about 50 percent female) and the anticipated output of 260 (80 nurses, 25 midwives and 155 health technicians) would contribute to meeting the Government targets. The training programs would emphasize practical applications (60 percent of total instruction), which would be carried out mainly in the nearby hospital. Eight specializations would be offered for health technicians--pharmacology, radiology, physiotheraphy, laboratory technology, anaesthesiology, dental technoLogy, sanitation and medical records/statistics.  729S - 13 - 38. Based on a 15:1 student/full-time teacher ratio for the nursing and midwifery courses, 24 staff would be required for these programs. Of these, 6 are already working in the provisional facilities and an additional 6 would be appointed in 1986. For the rest, the MOH will continue to draw its trainers from experienced hospital staff who in turn are replaced by newly recruited college or university graduates. In addition, special short courses (1-3 months) for trainers are organized regularly by the "Center for Educational Development for Health Personnel" affiliated with the Jordan University and established with WHO assistance. Part-time staff are used for specialized disciplines in the nursing and midwifery programs. For the health technicians programs, all teaching staff work on part-time basis; there are 16 permanent supervisors already appointed (working at the Amman college). To assist the institute in instructor training, the detailed development and application of new disciplines within the existing programs, upgrading staff quality and improving management, the technical assistance component of the project would provide 27 staff months of expert services and 38 staff months of fellowships. The MOH has submitted to the Bank a preliminary plan for fellowships and expert services. The details of the plan, including terms of reference and a time schedule for recruiting experts and implementing fellowship programs, would be submitted by end November 1985. The Government has agreed to monitor the job placement and performance of all NPITI graduates through a tracer system that is being developed. Assistance to the Jordan Institute of Public Administration (JIPA) 39. The Bank's manpower sector review has indicated that serious shortages of experienced managers would persist throughout the 1980s. In the past, the public sector has had problems in recruiting and retaining managers. The Government is currently carrying out reforms in the administration with the help of a Royal Commission on Public Administrative Development. There is a sharper focus on managerial functions and management training in this period of reform, and the Royal Commission has, among other measures, recommended that the Government expand public management training. JIPA would, of course, play a key role in implementing the recommendations of this commission. In addition to contributions by JIPA, the Jordan Institute of Management and the University of Jordan cover the management training needs of the private sector. While JIPA operates in an adequate, rented building, its equipment and other facilities would need upgrading. The project would provide audiovisual and other equipment and library books for JIPA to enable it to expand and improve its management training programs. The project would also provide fellowships for training trainers, and expert services in designing teaching materials, teaching methodology and evaluation of training. 40. JIPA is an autonomous public entity established in 1968 with Ford Foundation assistance to develop administration in both public and private institutions. Et is administered by a Board of Directors chaired by the President of the Civil Service Commission. Other Board Members are from universities, chambers of commerce and industry and labor unions. The permanent staff of the institute includes 25 higher level professionals, 10 of whom are trainers. The 1985 budget of JIPA is about JD 200,000. Its resources consist of Government grants and revenues derived from its services to the private sector. The courses for the private sector, designed with the advice of the clients, have been successful in attracting a large number of participants.  729S - 14- Project Management and Status of Preparation 41. The Project Implementation Unit (PIU) established in VTC for the implementation of the vocational training component of the Fourth Education Project (currently under implementation) would also be responsible for the implementation of the VTC component of this project. The Unit is headed by a project engineer and also includes an architect and a building technician. An accountant from the VTC Accounting Department, experienced in Bank procedures, would be assigned to the PIU for project accounting. The VTC Technical Department would be responsible for the control of design, procurement operations, and supervision of construction. The MOH has created a Project Management Unit (PMU) to oversee implementation of all projects. The unit comprises a project director, two architects, a civil engineer, an accountant, a procurement specialist and support staff. The NOH has also created a project advisory committee chaired by the MOH Undersecretary and composed of the directors of all MOH Departments. VTC and MOH would both maintain their implementation units adequately staffed through the project implementation period. The implementation of the JIPA component presents no difficulty. The director of the institute would act as project director and an accountant among the regular staff of the institute would be assigned the responsibility of project accounting. JIPA would receive assistance from the Project Implementation Unit of VTC as needed. 42. Suitable sites for the vocational training centers and OSHI have been acquired. These sites have adequate sources of water supply and municipal electricity. The two existing VTC centers that would be expanded have sufficient land to allow for the expansion. A suitable site for the MOH institute has already been acquired and a site plan is under preparation. VTC civil works, representing about half of the project civil works, are expected to be ready for tendering by end-1985. The MOH civil works are expected to be ready for tendering in June 1986. Preliminary equipment lists have been prepared by VTC, MOh and JIPA. Ic is expected that, by end November 1985, VTC, MOH and JIPA would complete final furniture and equipment lists with bidding documents for their respective project components. Accounts and Audit 43. The existing Project Implementation Units in VTC and MCHi maintain project-related accounts in accordance with sound accounting principles and practices satisfactory to the Bank. JIPA, with the help of VTC, would follow the same procedure. A Special Account would be established to facilitate disbursements under the proposed loan. Each project implementing agency would submit to the Bank annual financial-statements for their respective project components. Such financial statements would .e the basis of annual auditing of expenditures, including the audit of the Special Account, by independent auditors acceptable to the Bank. The Government Bureau of Audit is such an auditor. Annual audits would be submitted to the Bank not later than six months after the end of each government fiscal year.  /-,S - 15 - Project Cost and Financing Plan 44. The total cost of the project is estimated at about $18.3 million (base cost calculated in 1985 prices), of which about $12.0 million is foreign exchange. Cost breakdown by components is summarized in the Loan and Project Summary at the beginnirig of this report. Indirect taxes on civil works and locally procured furniture and equipment are estimated at about $1.1 million. No customs duties or taxes are levied on items directly imported for project use. Physical contingencies amount to 10 percent of base cost and the price contingencies to about 24 percent of the base cost plus physical contingencies. The annual price escalation rates are estimated at 5.0 percent in 1985, 8 percent during 1986-1989 and 5 percent thereafter, for foreign costs; 5 percent in 1985, 6 percent in 1986 and 7 percent thereafter for local costs. 45. The proposed Bank loan of $10.2 million would finance about 57 percent of the total cost and about 85 percent of the foreign exchange cost of the project. The proposed loan would finance the foreign exchange costs of constructing, equipping and furnishing 4 TTC, the 2 extensions to existing TTC, and the Nursing/Paramedical Training Instit'ite, as well as constructing the Occupational Safety and Health Institute. It would also cover part of the foreign exchange cost of consultant services and fellowships for development of staff, curricula and management in the MOH. The remaining foreign exchange costs of about $1.8 million, would be covered by the Government, who may however seek co-financing. The Government has agreed to conclude these arrangements within six months from the date of the Loan Agreement. The Government would cover the local costs (about $6.3 million). 46. Recurrent Costs. When fully operational, the project institutions would generate about JD 200,000 for VTC and about JD 380,000 for MOH in yearly incremental recurrent costs (in 1985 prices). These amounts would constitute a 19 percent addition to VTC's budget and less than 2 percent to MOE's budget. The levy mentioned in para. 36 would more than cover the incremental recurrent costs to be met by VTC. Until the levy becomes effective the Government would continue to contribute the required funds to VTC's budget. The MOH incremental costs are expected to be fully within the Government's financial capability. The JIPA component does not involve significant recurrent costs. Procurement and Disbursement 47. Civil works contracts (amounting to about $11 million), including contingencies, would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding (ICB), in conformity with the Guidelines for Procurement under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits. Equipment and furniture items, amounting to some $5 million, including contingencies, would be grouped to the extent possible to permit bulk procurement, and procured under ICB as above. Contracts for goods estimated to cost less than US$100,000 equivalent each, which would not be expected to interest foreign suppliers because of the variety of each contract, could be procured: (i) on the basis of competitive bidding advertised locally, using local competitive bidding procedures which the Bank has reviewed and are satisfactory; or, (ii) when such items are estimated to cost per contract not more than US$50.000 equivalent, on the basis of a  729S - 16 - minimum of three quotations from manufacturers or suppliers. The aggregate cost of goods to be procured under local competitive bidding and local shopping procedures is limited to US$900,000. In the comparison of equipment bids obtained on the basis of ICB, local manufacturers would be allowed a margin of preference equal to the existing rate of custom duties applicable to competing imports, or 15 percent of CIF price, whichever is lower. Prior Bank review of procurement documentation and contract awards, would be required for all civil works contracts and equipment contracts in excess of $150,000. Expert services would be acquired in accordance with the Bank's Guidelines for the Use of Consultants. Procurement by Category of Expenditure Procurement Method Category ICB LCB Other Total Civil Works 11.0 - - 11.0 (5.4) - (5.4) Goods 4.6 0.5 0.4 5.5 (4.2) (0.5) (4.7) Expert Services - - 1.8 1.8 and fellowships (0.1) (0.1) TOTAL 15.6 0.5 2.2 18.3 (9.6) (0.5) (0.1) (10.2) NOTE: Figures in parentheses are the respective amounts financed by the Bank. 48. The proposed loan would be disbursed over a period of seven years, and cover: 49 percent of the total ex<penditures for civil works; 100 percent of foreign expenditures and of local expenditures ex-factory for furniture and equipment as well as 80 percent of local expenditures for such imported items procured locally; and 90 percent of the total expenditures for fellowships and specialist services. All disbursements would be fully documented except those against contracts valued at $10,000 equivalent or less. Disbursements against those contracts would be made on the basis of statements of expenditutei. The loan closing date would be December 31, 1992. The estimated disbursc-ant schedule in the Loan and Project Summary reflects the sector disbursement experience in Jordan (6-year project implementation period). Adjustment has been made for the modest implementation experience of MOH and VTC coripared to MOE by allowing a longer disbursement period. However, the bulk of the disbursements is expected to take place from mid-1986 to mid-1992. Justification, Benefits and Risks 49. Growing labor market imbalances (shortages and surpluses of certain skills) prompted by high population growth, increasing participation in the labor force, reduced prospects of labor migration, and job and training preferences which do not reflect the labor market conditions, necessitates that the government focus on special policies to alleviate emerging problems.  729S - 17 - Foremost among recommended measures are: (i) a closer alignment of the education/training effort with the labor market requirements; (ii) improvement and expansion of vocational training; and (iii) improvement and expansion of management training and nursing and health technician training. The proposed project would assist the Government in meeting these objectives. It is expected that the vocational training components of the project will help train an additional 1,300 industrial workers per year through apprenticeship programs and short, intensive courses to upgrade and reorient worker skills, thereby enhancing their prospects in a changing labor market. The managerial and health training components will help fill the significant gaps that exist or are expected to develop in these specific occupations. Quality and range of training in these disciplines would be improved through establishing better training organization techniques, carrying out curriculum development and introducing new disciplines. In addition, the project would directly assist Government's efforts: (a) in increasing the number and range of education/training opportunities for females in provincial areas for health and other careers, (females from poorer families are expected to be attracted to these training programs); and (b) in helping youths who would not continue their formal studies beyond ninth grade (such opportunities would especially benefit urban and rural poor). During the preparation of this project a dialogue has been initiated with the Government on the establishment of a labor market information system which would be very valuable in dealing with labor market problems. Working documents prepared by the Bank during project preparation have defined the outlines of such a system and the steps for creating it. The Government is initiating the first steps for developing the system with assistance from bilateral sources and the Arab Labor Organization. The demand for vocational and professional training has increased in recent years and it is expected that the project institutions will function at full capacity. The project involves no special risks. PART V - RECOMMENDATION 50. I am satisfied that the proposed loan would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Bank and recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed loan. A. W. Clausen President by R. Picciotto Attachments Washington, D.C. October 10 , 1985  ANNEX I 18 - Page 1 of 7 PACE I JORDAN - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SKEE JORDANII RIPRCE CROUPS COIGND AVERACES) HmST (NOST RCENT ESTIMATE) lb R ECElT MIDDLE IeOM MIDDLE INCOE 19&/b 197a, ESTIJA.. lb M. APICA A HID EAST LAT. AMERICA A CAR ARA (T1WUSASDS. It#) TOTAL 97.7 97.7 97.7 ACRICULTURAL 12.0 14.0 14.8 CI P CAIPiTA CUS$) .. .. 640.0 IC 1134.9 1875.9 inin CONSUoWTO P2CA: .A: (KILOGRAMS OF OIL EQUIVALENT) 127.0 211.0 706.0 623.3 993.6 PaUmCON AM VITAL STATSTCS ?OPULATION.MID-tAR (TWOUSANDS) 1695.0 2299.0 3247.0 /d URBN POPULATION CZR F TOTAL) 42.7 50.5 71.6 49.0 67.7 POrPATION PROJCrlONS POPULATION IN TEAR 2000 (HILL) 6.3 STATIONARY POPULATION (ItLL) 17.0 POPULATION HOMeNTON 2.0 POPULATION DENSITt PEL SQ. XM. 17.3 22.5 33.2 37.1 48.0 PER SQ. L. AGRI. LAND 141.4 164.2 203.9 470.1 91.1 POPULATION ACE STRUCTURE CZ) 0-14 YRS 44.4 45.8 48.7 43.5 38.5 15-6A YRS 51.4 51.0 48.4 53.0 57.1 65 AnDABOE 4.0 3.1 24 3.3 4.2 POPULATION CRIOW1 RATE (Z) TOTAL '.1 3.0 2.7 2.J 2.4 URJAN 5.2 4.7 4.0 4.4 3.6 CRUDC SIRrH RATE CPUR THOUS) 47.4 47.6 45.0 40.0 30.9 CRUDE DEAIK RATE (PER THOUS) 19.9 15.5 8.0 11.S 3.0 CROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.5 3.5 3.6 2.8 2.0 FAMILY PLANNINC ACCEPrORS. ANNUAL ITNOUS) USERS CI OF MARKED WE) .. 22.0 J. 26.0 21.4 45.3 FOOD A NUTRITION InDEX OF FOO PROD. PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 220.0 79.0 71.0 95.1 109.6 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES CZ OF REQUIREMENTS) 96.0 97.0 131.0 11B.2 113.2 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 62.0 60.0 81.0 77.8 69.4 OF IMIC ANUIAL AND PULSE L5.0 15.0 16.0 If 17.S 34.2 CNILD (ACES 1-4) DEAHIN RATE 22.9 15.1 5.0 12.8 4.8 WrALTZ LIFE EXPECT. AT BIRTR (YEARS) 46.9 54.1 64.D 57.3 64.8 INFANT MORT. RATE (PER THO13S) 135.5 97.5 62.u 96.8 59.7 ACCESS To SAFE WATER CIPOP) TOTAL 21.3 .. 80.0 67.2 65.3 URBAN 48.6 .. 100.0 93.4 76.5 RURAL 2.1 .. 65.0 45.8 44.2 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL t2 OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. .. 76.0 45.9 56.3 URBAN .. .. 94.0 /R 63.0 73.4 RURAL .. .. 34.0 28.6 25.5 POPUIATION PER PHYSICIAN 5800.0 3730.0 900.0 Jc 4331.0 1909.7 PoP. PER NURSING PERSON 1930.0 /h 1480.0 1990.0 7W 1845.0 808.2 POP. PER HOSPITAL RED TOTAL. 560.0 1350.0 520.0 /c 621.8 362.0 URBAN 390.0 /h 1120.0 680.0 7F 565.0 422.0 P RURAL - 5440.0 2511.3 2716.7 ADISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. 36.5 45.7 /f 25.7 27.5 .Ousnc AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL 5.3 6.1 6.7 c*1. URBAN 5.5 .. RURAL 5.1 .. AVERACE NO. OF PERSONS/ROOM TOTAL * - 6.5 c.. URBAN RURAL .. .. PERCENTAGE OF DUELLlNGS WITH ELECT. TOTAL 170 _ 66.0 /c.i URBAN 39.2 .. 90.0 Ic . RURAL 1.4 .. 30.0 Ic.t  AMNEX I - 19 - Page 2 of PAUL 2 JORDAN - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SBIET JOROAN RPSERENCVE GROUPS (WEIGITED AVERAGES) Ia KlST (CST RUCENT ESTL1ATt2 lb RRCENT MIDDL tNCfl IF. iUDnLE INCWIE 196nIb 1970tk. ESTIMATESb N. WERICA A 41-i EAST UT. Ar.DICA & CAd EOUCASDN ADJUSTED ENROLWENT RATIOS PRLnAtL: TOTAL 77.n 72.n 103.0 Ic 89.1 106.7 MALE 94.0 7q.0 105.0 7& 103.7 IU8.5 FEMALE 59.0 65.0 10i.0 7; 72.2 it16.6 SECOXDARY: TOTAL Z5.0 33.U 77.0 /c 42.9 44.2 MALE 36.0 41.0 79.0 7F 5U.V 42.7 FEMALE 13.0 24.0 76.0 Ic 34.6 44.9 VOCATIONAL CR OF SEOINCART) 2.7 3.0 6.9 /c 10.0 13.3 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO YSLMAC 34.0 39.0 32.0 Ic 29.7